Deutsche Bank vor neuem All-Time-High (Seite 4225)
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ISIN: DE0005140008 · WKN: 514000 · Symbol: DBK
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Milliarden-Belastung: Deutsche Bank: Altlasten der Postbank-Übernahme drohen zu eskalierenWerte aus der Branche Finanzdienstleistungen
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 32,00 | +27,95 | |
| 1,5400 | +26,23 | |
| 1,3100 | +24,76 | |
| 12,700 | +19,81 | |
| 34,04 | +17,79 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 0,7000 | -11,84 | |
| 1,8775 | -14,17 | |
| 1,0610 | -15,12 | |
| 1,1500 | -20,14 | |
| 0,5900 | -29,76 |
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Schöner Abschluß von Ackermann. Mittlerweile fast 6% minus. 40 Euro + erstmal wohl auf lange Sicht ade.
Mule,
bald ist es weit,
dann ist die Welt untergangen
und wir sind alle Sorgen los.
bald ist es weit,
dann ist die Welt untergangen
und wir sind alle Sorgen los.
Letztendlich wird es sich daran entscheiden, ob die USA es schafft den Double Dip Rezession zu vermeiden und endlich auch einen Wirtschaftswachstum erzeugen kann oder ob sie an die Schuldenmauer kracht und dann engültig abstürtzt nachdem die Blendereien wegen der Wahlen vorbei sind?
Richtig spannend ist, ob der WLI der auch ein Double Dip Rezession in den USA vorankündigt? Interessant sind die Verzerrungen im Index durch die Geldfluten, die überall auf der Welt in den Markt gepumpt werden. Die äußerst spannende Frage, ob dies den Rezessionszyklus aufhalten kann, wird hier diskutiert...
Why Our Recession Call Stands
The bigger question is, can unprecedented, concerted global monetary policy action repeal the business cycle? The objective coincident and leading indexes that we have always monitored are still telling us that it cannot.
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5065
Zitat von mule99: Die Frühindikatoren zeigen immer deutlicher, dass die Weltwirtschaft in eine Rezession abgleitet. Für den BDI wurde ich noch verspottet und verlacht und siehe da Europa ist in der Rezession und auch die Boom Länder wie Indien und China haben sich merklich abgekühlt.
In den USA kündigt sich eine Double Dip Rezession für die zweite Jahreshäfte an. DER ECRI WLI zeigt eine der niedrigsten Wachtumsraten der US Wirtschaft seit Juli 2009
Richtig spannend ist, ob der WLI der auch ein Double Dip Rezession in den USA vorankündigt? Interessant sind die Verzerrungen im Index durch die Geldfluten, die überall auf der Welt in den Markt gepumpt werden. Die äußerst spannende Frage, ob dies den Rezessionszyklus aufhalten kann, wird hier diskutiert...
Why Our Recession Call Stands
The bigger question is, can unprecedented, concerted global monetary policy action repeal the business cycle? The objective coincident and leading indexes that we have always monitored are still telling us that it cannot.
http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/5065
1,7 Milliarden Euro aus dem Investment-Banking, 0,4 Milliarden aus dem Geschäft mit Privatkunden.
zusammen 2,1 Milliarden vor Steuern.
nach Steuern 1,4 Milliarden
vier mal 1,4 = 5,6 Milliarden übers Jahr.
villeicht auch nur 4 Milliarden nach Steuern.
meilenweit von Ackermanns 10 Milliarden Euro Ziel entfernt.
Verkaufen, verkaufen, verkaufen, die reine Katastrophe,
rette sich wer kann.
zusammen 2,1 Milliarden vor Steuern.
nach Steuern 1,4 Milliarden
vier mal 1,4 = 5,6 Milliarden übers Jahr.
villeicht auch nur 4 Milliarden nach Steuern.
meilenweit von Ackermanns 10 Milliarden Euro Ziel entfernt.
Verkaufen, verkaufen, verkaufen, die reine Katastrophe,
rette sich wer kann.
Zitat von mule99: Und das nächste deutliche Warnzeichen ist da, wie die historische Korrelation zwischen der Geschäftserwartung und dem BIP zeigt. Nachden den UK deutet sich wohl in Italien nun auch ein heftiger Double Dip an, wenn man sich die Entwicklung ansieht...
![]()
Italian business confidence unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in more than two years in April amid concerns that the country’s fourth recession in a decade may deepen.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-26/italian-business…
Und wenn man dann bedenkt, dass die offiziellen Zahlen von Italien noch mit allen möglichen Tricks aufgehübscht sind ...
Italien bessert Handelsbilanz mit Gold-Exporten in die Schweiz auf
Mario Monti will zeigen, dass seine Reformen greifen. Um das chronische Handelsbilanzdefizit zu verbessern, haben die Italiener in den vergangenen Monaten massiv Gold in die Schweiz exportiert.
http://www.deutsche-mittelstands-nachrichten.de/2012/04/4188…
Trading Spotlight
Wir werden sehen wie es weiter geht. Ob es die richtige Zeit ist große Risiken im Investmentbanking einzugehen, bezweifle ich. Jain hat sich in der Finanzkrise schon mal kräftig verzockt. Hoffen wir das er diesmal nicht den selben Fehler macht.
22 Warning Signs Of Serious Doom Ahead For Global Financial Markets
#1 According to CNN, the level of selling by insiders at corporations listed on the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) is the highest that it has been in almost a decade. Do those insiders know something that the rest of us do not?
The Euro’s Demise Has Been Set in Motion: Are you protected?
"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors."
#2 Home prices in the United States have fallen for six months in a row and are now down 35 percent from the peak of the housing market. The last time that home prices in the U.S. were this low was back in 2002.
#3 It is now being projected that the Greek economy will shrink by another 5 percent this year.
#4 Despite wave after wave of austerity measures, Greece is still going to have a budget deficit equivalent to about 7 percent of GDP in 2012.
#5 Interest rates on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt are rapidly rising. The following is from a recent RTE article….
Spain’s borrowing rate nearly doubled in a short-term debt auction as investors fretted over the euro zone’s determination to deal with its debts.
And Italy raised nearly €3.5 billion in a short-term bond sale today but at sharply higher interest rates amid fresh concerns over the euro zone outlook, the Bank of Italy said.
#6 The government of Spain recently announced that its 2011 budget deficit was much larger than originally projected and that it probably will not meet its budget targets for 2012 either.
#7 Amazingly, bad loans now make up 8.15 percent of all loans on the books of Spanish banks. That is the highest level in 18 years. The total value of all toxic loans in Spain is equivalent to approximately 13 percent of Spanish GDP.
#8 One key Spanish stock index has already fallen by more than 19 percentso far this year.
#9 The Spanish government has announced a ban on all cash transactions larger than 2,500 euros. Many are interpreting this as a panic move.
#10 It is looking increasingly likely that a major bailout for Spain will be needed. The following is from a recent Reuters article….
Economic experts watching Spain don’t know how much money will be needed or precisely when, but some are near certain that Madrid will eventually seek a multi-billion euro bailout for its banks, and perhaps even for the state itself.
#11 Analysts at Moody’s Analytics are warning that Italy has now reached financially unsustainable territory….
“Italy is already out of fiscal space, in our estimate.” said Moody’s. “Its debt levels relative to GDP already exceed a manageable level. The manageable limit for Italian 10-year bond yields is estimated at 4.2pc. As of Wednesday, Italian 10-year yields were 5.46pc.”
#12 It is being projected that the Portuguese economy will shrink by 5.7 percent during 2012.
#13 There is even trouble in European nations that have been considered relatively stable up to this point. For example, the Dutch government collapsed on Monday after austerity talks broke down.
#14 The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, says that there are “dark clouds on the horizon” for the global economy.
#15 The top economist for the IMF, Olivier Blanchard, recently made this statement: “One has the feeling that at any moment, things could get very bad again.”
#16 A recent IMF report admitted that the current financial crisis could lead to the break up of the eurozone….
Under these circumstances, a break-up of the euro area could not be ruled out. The financial and real spillovers to other regions, especially emerging Europe, would likely be very large.
This could cause major political shocks that could aggravate economic stress to levels well above those after the Lehman collapse.
#17 George Soros is publicly declaring that the European Union could soon experience a collapse similar to what happened to the Soviet Union.
#18 A member of the European Parliament, Nigel Farage, stated during one recent interview that it is inevitable that some major banks in Europe will collapse….
There are going to be some serious banking collapses and the impact of that on some sovereign states, will be serious. I’m afraid we’ve gotten to a point where we really can’t stop this now. We’re beginning to reach a stage where however much false money you create, the problem becomes bigger than the people trying to solve it. We are very close to that point.
When I talk about the threats and the risk that this thing could wind up in some kind of rebellion, some sort of awful social cataclysm, they (other European politicians) are now very worried indeed. They will talk to you in private, but in public, nobody dares utter a word.
I think the deterioration, in the last two or three weeks, in the eurozone is very serious indeed. It’s the bond spreads in Italy and Spain. It’s the fact that youth unemployment is now over 50% in some of these Mediterranean countries.
It’s riot and disorder on the streets. And yet a month ago I was here and there was Herman Van Rumpuy telling us, ‘We’ve turned the corner. Everything is solved. There are no more problems with the eurozone.’ What a pack of jokers they look like.”
#19 The IMF is projecting that Japan will have a debt to GDP ratio of 256 percent by next year.
#20 Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is projecting that the S&P 500 will fall by about 11 percent by the end of 2012.
#21 Over the past six months, hundreds of prominent bankers have resigned all over the globe. Is there a reason why so many are suddenly leaving their posts?
#22 The 9 largest U.S. banks (NYSEARCA:XLF) have a total of 228.72 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives. That is approximately 3 times the size of the entire global economy. It is a financial bubble so immense in size that it is nearly impossible to fully comprehend how large it is.
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/24/22-warning-signs-of-serio…
22 Warning Signs Of Serious Doom Ahead For Global Financial Markets
#1 According to CNN, the level of selling by insiders at corporations listed on the S&P 500 Index (INDEXSP:.INX) is the highest that it has been in almost a decade. Do those insiders know something that the rest of us do not?
The Euro’s Demise Has Been Set in Motion: Are you protected?
"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors."
#2 Home prices in the United States have fallen for six months in a row and are now down 35 percent from the peak of the housing market. The last time that home prices in the U.S. were this low was back in 2002.
#3 It is now being projected that the Greek economy will shrink by another 5 percent this year.
#4 Despite wave after wave of austerity measures, Greece is still going to have a budget deficit equivalent to about 7 percent of GDP in 2012.
#5 Interest rates on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt are rapidly rising. The following is from a recent RTE article….
Spain’s borrowing rate nearly doubled in a short-term debt auction as investors fretted over the euro zone’s determination to deal with its debts.
And Italy raised nearly €3.5 billion in a short-term bond sale today but at sharply higher interest rates amid fresh concerns over the euro zone outlook, the Bank of Italy said.
#6 The government of Spain recently announced that its 2011 budget deficit was much larger than originally projected and that it probably will not meet its budget targets for 2012 either.
#7 Amazingly, bad loans now make up 8.15 percent of all loans on the books of Spanish banks. That is the highest level in 18 years. The total value of all toxic loans in Spain is equivalent to approximately 13 percent of Spanish GDP.
#8 One key Spanish stock index has already fallen by more than 19 percentso far this year.
#9 The Spanish government has announced a ban on all cash transactions larger than 2,500 euros. Many are interpreting this as a panic move.
#10 It is looking increasingly likely that a major bailout for Spain will be needed. The following is from a recent Reuters article….
Economic experts watching Spain don’t know how much money will be needed or precisely when, but some are near certain that Madrid will eventually seek a multi-billion euro bailout for its banks, and perhaps even for the state itself.
#11 Analysts at Moody’s Analytics are warning that Italy has now reached financially unsustainable territory….
“Italy is already out of fiscal space, in our estimate.” said Moody’s. “Its debt levels relative to GDP already exceed a manageable level. The manageable limit for Italian 10-year bond yields is estimated at 4.2pc. As of Wednesday, Italian 10-year yields were 5.46pc.”
#12 It is being projected that the Portuguese economy will shrink by 5.7 percent during 2012.
#13 There is even trouble in European nations that have been considered relatively stable up to this point. For example, the Dutch government collapsed on Monday after austerity talks broke down.
#14 The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, says that there are “dark clouds on the horizon” for the global economy.
#15 The top economist for the IMF, Olivier Blanchard, recently made this statement: “One has the feeling that at any moment, things could get very bad again.”
#16 A recent IMF report admitted that the current financial crisis could lead to the break up of the eurozone….
Under these circumstances, a break-up of the euro area could not be ruled out. The financial and real spillovers to other regions, especially emerging Europe, would likely be very large.
This could cause major political shocks that could aggravate economic stress to levels well above those after the Lehman collapse.
#17 George Soros is publicly declaring that the European Union could soon experience a collapse similar to what happened to the Soviet Union.
#18 A member of the European Parliament, Nigel Farage, stated during one recent interview that it is inevitable that some major banks in Europe will collapse….
There are going to be some serious banking collapses and the impact of that on some sovereign states, will be serious. I’m afraid we’ve gotten to a point where we really can’t stop this now. We’re beginning to reach a stage where however much false money you create, the problem becomes bigger than the people trying to solve it. We are very close to that point.
When I talk about the threats and the risk that this thing could wind up in some kind of rebellion, some sort of awful social cataclysm, they (other European politicians) are now very worried indeed. They will talk to you in private, but in public, nobody dares utter a word.
I think the deterioration, in the last two or three weeks, in the eurozone is very serious indeed. It’s the bond spreads in Italy and Spain. It’s the fact that youth unemployment is now over 50% in some of these Mediterranean countries.
It’s riot and disorder on the streets. And yet a month ago I was here and there was Herman Van Rumpuy telling us, ‘We’ve turned the corner. Everything is solved. There are no more problems with the eurozone.’ What a pack of jokers they look like.”
#19 The IMF is projecting that Japan will have a debt to GDP ratio of 256 percent by next year.
#20 Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is projecting that the S&P 500 will fall by about 11 percent by the end of 2012.
#21 Over the past six months, hundreds of prominent bankers have resigned all over the globe. Is there a reason why so many are suddenly leaving their posts?
#22 The 9 largest U.S. banks (NYSEARCA:XLF) have a total of 228.72 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives. That is approximately 3 times the size of the entire global economy. It is a financial bubble so immense in size that it is nearly impossible to fully comprehend how large it is.
http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/24/22-warning-signs-of-serio…
Zitat von mule99: Klar machen sollte man sich aber welchen Risikodimensionen wir überhaupt sprechen, sollte es schief gehen:
1. According to the IMF, European banks as a whole are leveraged at 26 to 1 (this data point is based on reported loans… the real leverage levels are likely much, much higher.) These are a Lehman Brothers leverage levels.
2. The European Banking system is over $46 trillion in size (nearly 3X total EU GDP).
3. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet is now nearly $4 trillion in size (larger than Germany’s economy and roughly 1/3 the size of the ENTIRE EU’s GDP). Aside from the inflationary and systemic risks this poses (the ECB is now leveraged at over 36 to 1).
4. Over a quarter of the ECB’s balance sheet is PIIGS debt which the ECB will dump any and all losses from onto national Central Banks (read: Germany)
So we’re talking about a banking system that is nearly four times that of the US ($46 trillion vs. $12 trillion) with at least twice the amount of leverage (26 to 1 for the EU vs. 13 to 1 for the US), and a Central Bank that has stuffed its balance sheet with loads of garbage debts, giving it a leverage level of 36 to 1. And all of this is occurring in a region of 17 different countries none of which have a great history of getting along… at a time when old political tensions are rapidly heating up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-15-11/europe-will-…
APA-dpa-AFX-Analyser · -UBS belässt Deutsche Bank auf 'Buy' - Ziel 43 Euro
Die Schweizer Großbank UBS hat die Einstufung für Deutsche Bank nach Zahlen zum ersten Quartal auf "Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 43,00 Euro belassen. Der bereinigte Vorsteuergewinn des Kreditinstituts habe den Erwartungen entsprochen, schrieb Analyst Philipp Zieschang in einer Studie vom Donnerstag. Der Quartalsausweis sei insgesamt okay und dürfte keine substanziellen Änderungen der durchschnittlichen Markterwartungen nach sich ziehen.
AFA0006 2012-04-26/10:42
ISIN: DE0005140008
© 2012 APA-dpa-AFX-Analyser
Die Schweizer Großbank UBS hat die Einstufung für Deutsche Bank nach Zahlen zum ersten Quartal auf "Buy" mit einem Kursziel von 43,00 Euro belassen. Der bereinigte Vorsteuergewinn des Kreditinstituts habe den Erwartungen entsprochen, schrieb Analyst Philipp Zieschang in einer Studie vom Donnerstag. Der Quartalsausweis sei insgesamt okay und dürfte keine substanziellen Änderungen der durchschnittlichen Markterwartungen nach sich ziehen.
AFA0006 2012-04-26/10:42
ISIN: DE0005140008
© 2012 APA-dpa-AFX-Analyser
Ohne Sondereffekte im Rahmen der Erwartungen....Kernkapital im grünen Bereich...hätte auch schlechter kommen können...
Schönen Tag allen Investierten!
Schönen Tag allen Investierten!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.089.870 von mule99 am 26.04.12 09:00:09Ackermanns letzte Bilanz verfehlt die Erwartungen - Privatkundengeschäft leidet
Im Geschäft mit Privatkunden (PBC) ging der Vorsteuergewinn um die Hälfte zurück auf 413 Millionen Euro. In der Vermögensverwaltung, wo große Teile zum Verkauf stehen, machen der Bank massive Mittelabflüsse zu schaffen.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/banken/deutsche-bank…
Im Geschäft mit Privatkunden (PBC) ging der Vorsteuergewinn um die Hälfte zurück auf 413 Millionen Euro. In der Vermögensverwaltung, wo große Teile zum Verkauf stehen, machen der Bank massive Mittelabflüsse zu schaffen.
http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/banken/deutsche-bank…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.089.870 von mule99 am 26.04.12 09:00:09ja deine befürchtungen habe mir wieder sehr geholfen
danke mule
danke mule
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