LYNAS - Faktenthread, Analysen, Querverweise u. Meldungen zum Unternehmen (Seite 80)

[JoJo49]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.023.154 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 15.01.13 12:43:08

Danke!
War mir noch nicht bekannt und obwohl der Hinweis auf 35% Reserven schon ein paar Jahre her ist bin ich noch von diesem Wert ausgegangen.

Allerdings ist auf Grund der starken Nachfrage/Bedarf der vergangenen Jahre und weil China noch immer, auch mit illegalen Exporten, den Weltmarkt mit ca. 95% REO versorgt hat, ist IMHO diese Entwicklung nachvollziehbar.

Nichts ist gerade auch in Bezug auf die Rohstoffegruppe der "Seltenen Erden" unendlich mit Ausnahme der nachwachsenden Rohstoffe, aber allein mit denen werden wir u.a. auch bei den Bevölkerungszuwächsen die Zukunft nicht meisten können.

Dazu noch ein paar aktuelle Informationen aus dem HC-Forum:
http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1924063&ms…
interesting read (All.In) Trade LYC with
:::
1. Rare Earths Update: Lessening Chinese Dominance
One Signal To Watch
Last week the news broke that The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) will fund a new research center charged with developing new methods of rare earth production. The DoE will allocate US $120M to the Institute to be based in Ames, Iowa.
A Drop In The Bucket
This is a welcome sign, but we are left to wonder if it will make a dent in China’s global supply chain dominance in the rare earth (REE) space. $120M is a great deal of money, however when compared to the recently renewed wind tax credit of $12.2 billion, the $120M grant pales in comparison. This disparity appears to be another example of short-sighted thinking on the part of politicians. They appear more concerned about propping up a subsidized industry (renewables) than rebuilding a critical (even strategic) REE supply chain from the ground up. Ironically, with the necessity of permanent magnets in wind turbines, one would think that the bigger bang for the buck would be on funding and creating a relevant materials supply chain rather than subsidizing the wind industry.
With the strategic importance of REEs to national defense and high tech R&D, we think that streamlining permitting rules for rare earth mining and funding research for separating and processing these elements should be at the top of every policy maker’s list.
A Good First Step
Please don’t mistake us. The creation of this new institute is a positive step. It is interesting that the issues that propelled REEs to the front page of every newspaper in the world in 2009 and 2010 are still prevalent (Chinese dominance, predominantly). Nevertheless for some reason, the investorate has fallen out of love with REEs, as evidenced by both REE share prices and the prices of rare earth oxides. The table below shows the traditional “S-curve” pricing we have seen so often in the natural resource space. Dr. Tom Patton called this the “Mystery-History" curve.
MORNING NOTES 1 OF 5 1/14/2013
?????????????????????????Rare Earth Oxide 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Jan 7 2013
LanthanumOxide $4.88 $22.40 $104.10 $24.64 $19.54 $11
CeriumOxide $3.88 $21.60 $102 $24.79 $20.38 $12
NeodymiumOxide $19.12 $49.50 $234.40 $122.14 $105.31 $80
PraesodymiumOxide $18.03 $48 $197.30 $122.86 $108.85 $85
????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Dysprosium Oxide $115.67 $231.60
Europium Oxide ? ? ? $492.92 $559.80
Terbium Oxide $361.67 $557.80
Source: Metal Pages; Lynas website
$1,449.80
$2,842.90
$2,334.20
$1,085.71
$2,412.86
$2,074.29
$967.69
$2,020.00
$1,938
$630
$1,600
$1,300
??????????????????????????????????????????????????The after-effects of the Great Recession of 2008 have also helped depress REO prices.
REE Prices: The Wild Card
The chart above shows the meteoric rise and precipitous fall of select rare earth oxides (REOs). All prices are in USD/kg and FOB China1. We believe these prices will stabilize as global economic growth, especially in the emerging world, comes back to life. A “wringing out” of the volatility in REO2 prices will be a welcome sign and will provide clarity to investors looking to evaluate the present value of every rare earth project with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) or other advanced study completed on it.
Nobody, except the Chinese, can control REO prices. It is China that is best positioned to weather the current pricing volatility and emerge in a stronger position. The consolidation of REE mining in China is no secret. The country is moving to suppress illegal mining and gain control of REE production. This is how they aim to control prices.
Last week, China’s Ministry of Land and Resources announced the first of two production quotas of 46,900 tones. The second production quota will likely be announced in Q2 2013. For the sake of comparison, in 2011, a full year production quota of 93,800 was mandated.
We do not think that the quota for 2013 will match that of 2011. The 2012 quotas were not made public. China is clamping down on this industry and attempting to control all aspects of it. The rationale, no doubt, being to firm pricing and protect their domestic industry and margins.
Export Quotas Are Flat, Too
It’s not only production quotas that are being manipulated. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM)3, the entity responsible for setting rare earth export quotas, released the first targets for 2013: 15,501 tonnes.
1 FOB stands for Free On Board and is a shipping term used to designate who is responsible (buyer or seller) for shipping costs. With respect to FOB China, the buyer would pay shipping costs.
2 As rare earths are typically separated and sold in their oxide form, deposits are typically referred to in their rare earth oxide equivalent.
3 http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/
MORNING NOTES 2 OF 5 1/14/2013
??
Of this, 13,563 tonnes are light rare earths and 1,938 tonnes are medium and heavy rare earths. For the second year in a row, MOFCOM has elected to keep export quotas flat.
Policies such as these make the creation of the Critical Materials Institute here in the U.S. more important. Though the Obama Administration lodged a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the part of the US, Japan, and EU with regards to China’s REO export practices, we are more confident in the ability of research scientists to solve REE or advanced materials supply chain issues or faster and more completely than the WTO.
More Molycorp Missteps
Of course, the first step in establishing a REE supply chain outside of China involves a self- sufficient mine supply. Molycorp (MCP:NYSE) represents the most realistic North America near-term solution. Late last week the company issued a release stating that achieving their Phase I run rate of 19,050 tpy of REO would be delayed to mid-2013. In addition, plans for Phase II which would have increased the run rate to 40,000 tpy have been put on hold due to falling prices and weakening demand.
Finally, the company indicated that it anticipates lower than expected cash flow and revenue in 2013 and “is evaluating its capital needs for 2013.” Translation: More dilution is on the way for MCP shareholders and possibly a lower share price.
You can say what you want about MCP’s ability to destroy shareholder value (see chart below), but as the closest thing we have to a REE mining and magnet production company, we would argue that MCP's success is crucial to the entire non-Chinese REE industry.
The Way to Play Rare Earths in 2013: Listen to Price
Given that there now appears to be renewed interest by the DoE in rare earths and China continues to consolidate its REE industry, we would suggest focusing on the single data point which can render any REE project robustly economic or not: prices.
MORNING NOTES 3 OF 5 1/14/2013
?
With access to capital for junior mining companies a challenge, we continue to encourage investors to watch those metrics that discovery projects are most sensitive to. One can use the Ten Point Factor Model to evaluate management capability, financial soundness, and eight other factors in the due diligence process. In an environment of falling REO prices, projects with the most manageable capital expenditure requirements have “wiggle room” when it comes to declining prices. In an era of increasing capital costs, this makes a focus on the level of REO prices all the more critical in your evaluation process.
As REEs are typically included in the industrial metals category, we watch macroeconomic data such as PMI or industrial production numbers from multiple countries throughout the world. While there is not necessarily a direct correlation, as industrial production recovers, we would expect REO prices to slow their rate of decline and follow suit. It appears that economic malaise has stopped, at least in the emerging world, and is regaining its footing. This indicates a possible economic “bottom” and is a positive sign for many industrial metals and minerals in 2013.
Another way to create wealth in this space is by focusing on specific REEs rather than the entire basket. It is no secret that the light REEs (LREEs) are in ample supply and are forecast to remain that way. This is in opposition to the heavy REEs (HREEs) which are less plentiful in supply and hence are forecast to maintain higher prices in coming years.
As evidence, we draw your attention to the 2013 export quotas in China we discussed above. Of the 15,501 tonnes of REOs allotted for export, only 12% of that total is directed towards HREOs. Translation: Find those discovery projects more heavily slanted towards the HREEs. This can aid in delivering a more robust and ultimately successful mining project.
Though the junior REE mining space has too many participants and is going to continue to inevitably shrink in size, we believe that returns can be generated in this space. The DoE is now beginning to develop ways to innovate in the rare earth production process. We think this is a positive first step in re-establishing a domestic REE supply chain in North American and should be supportive of North American-based REE exploration companies. For investors, focusing on market prices and macroeconomic data points, watching for stabilization will be the first, and perhaps most important, signal for participants in the REE space.

Cheers All.In


http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1924001&ms…
re: the mind games (vercengetrix)
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Forget the price for now. I'm assuming you all didn't buy into Lynas to make a short-term average sized profit. Just keep holding. People were bagging Linc Energy for the longest time calling it a dog stock, then look what happened. From 50 cents to $2 over a few weeks. The underlying value of Lynas is there, I assure you. Don't second guess you reasons for investing in this industry.

Your company has strategic military importance to the West as one of the few supply chains outside of China. Do you think superpowers and militaries around the world are going to suddenly stop needing precision-guided weapons and infantry gadgets? This isn't even counting the widespread civilian applications like clean energy products and smartphones.

Mt Weld is one of the largest and richest grade deposits of REE in the world (if not the highest?) and they aren't even done scoping its full potential yet. Australia is a tier one ally of the United States. We are the salvation of the West in terms of secure rare earth supply outside of China.

The US Department of Energy has gone on record to say there will be critical supply shortages over the next decade. They even had Congress pass a law to boost output of rare earths in America due to its importance to national security. You know the situation is bad when US legislators manage to agree on something.
_________________________________________________________________________________________


und für @ die es interessiert zum "Short Selling"
https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-cgi/idcplg?IdcService=ASX…

Grüsse JoJo

[Fuenfvorzwoelf]

Sorry, falls der Link schon gepostet wurde, war ein paar Wochen in Urlaub und habe nicht alles zurückgelesen! Die Quote ist sicherlich bekannt, aber dass China nur noch 23 % der Reserven hält, finde ich erstaunlich. Jedenfalls ist das Angebot bei bestimmten REE möglicherweise die nächsten Jahre auf Kante genäht. Bekommen wir nochmals eine Überblasung in den Preisen?

China's Ministry of Commerce on Friday announced the first round of rare earth export quotas for 2013.

The first batch of quotas totals 15,501 tonnes, about half the quota set for all of 2012, the ministry said in a statement on its website.
Of the total, 13,563 tonnes are allocated for light rare earths, while 1,938 tonnes are for medium and heavy rare earth metals, it said.
Twenty-four companies will share the quota, including Inner Mongolia's Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., the country's largest rare earth producer.
As the world's largest rare earths supplier, China serves more than 90 percent of the world's demand for rare earths, a group of 17 elements that are widely used in high-tech products ranging from flat-screen TVs to lasers and hybrid cars.

However, the country holds only 23 percent of the world's rare earth reserves, and decades of excessive exploitation have greatly damaged the environment.

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/counselorsreport/europe…

[JoJo49]

http://www.indmin.com/Article/3140175/Channel/19523/Industri…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=avwGi…
Veröffentlicht am 11.01.2013


This week on Industrial Minerals TV: graphite price movements, updated rare earths quotas and economic improvement take place in China, frac sand developments are reported in the US and Lynas Corp. announces its LAMP production schedule in Malaysia.

Googleübersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…


@ eine erfolgreiche Woche

Grüsse JoJo

[FutureEarth]

Hallo 5v12,

guten morgen....warst schon lange nicht mehr online...warst Du verscholen oder hast DU mit suffkopf die Vorbereitungen für die 3€ - Party für den Spätsommer vorbereitet :-)

Beste Grüße
FutureEarth

PS: egal was DU liest im FORUM den Humor dabei nicht verlieren - oder?

[Fuenfvorzwoelf]

Man glaubt es kaum, aber Malaysia rangiert im im internationalen Geschäftsranking mit Platz Nr. 12 weit vor Deutschland (Platz 20).

http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings

Hoffen wir, dass sich das auch mal für Lynas auszahlt.

Die Wahl Malaysias als Standort war im Prinzip gut, denn die Proteste konnten in der Schärfe nicht erwartet werden. Nach den Wahlen, die die aktuelle Regierung bestätigen werden, wird sich die Beruhigung im SP niederschlagen. Gemeinsam mit den Produktionszahlen. Die werden zwar erst mal nicht berauschend sein, und es wird darauf ankommen, was für eine längerfristige Perspektive Lynas vermitteln wird.

NC war schon immer ein Visionär. Daher erwarte ich für dieses Jahr die Trendwende.

Fällt MCP aus dem Rennen aufgrund der Unfähigkeit, operationell zu konkurrieren, sollte es für Lynas gut aussehen. Als einziger wesentlicher ROW-Versorger mit lowcost-LREE und später HREE.

Ich halte mich nach wie vor aus dem Diskussionsthread, da sich dort nach wie vor zuviele Spinner rumtreiben. Mir reicht es, wenn ich auf Hotcopper mitlese. Da die Protestler um Fuziah nur noch loosen, hat sich auch dort der Pulverdampf etwas verzogen und sobald es nur noch um die Kennzahlen geht und weniger um die Emotionen, wird sich das Einpendeln und Lynas irgendwann so diskutiert werden, wie es sich für einen global Player gehört. Dann verschwinden hoffentlich auch mal die Spinner und Idioten aus den Threads.

Ich wünsche allen in Lynas langfristig Investierten ein glückliches Händchen bei allem.

lg Matze

[Lynasier]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.005.680 von JoJo49 am 10.01.13 15:35:01

zu: http://blog.metal-pages.com/2013/01/02/rare-earths-price-cyc…
Rare earths price cycle makes headwinds for western producers
„And interestingly, prices of the rare earths have fallen just at the time when western companies needed them to be higher so they could raise capital and complete their last few steps to full production.“

Interessanter Artikel! Auch ich bin überzeugt davon, dass die Chinesen z.B. auch bzgl. der Opposition in Malaysia die Finger im Spiel hatten und haben und der Welt Geschichten auftischen zum Thema seltene Erden. (Auch ärgert sie noch immer, dass sie bei Lynas nicht mit ins Boot konnten vor Jahren!)

Meiner Überzeugung nach unter folgendem Kalkül:
einerseits sind die Chinesen im Nachhinein verärgert darüber, dass sie über Jahrzehnte ihre seltenen Erden zu Dumpingpreisen verschleudert haben, denn sie besitzen ja doch nur ca. 35% der Gesamt-Vorkommen. Viele umsatzträchtige Technologien sind ohne seltene Erden nun mal nicht machbar, also sind die REE`s bei entsprechenden Preisen und einer bleibenden Monopolstellung eine wertvolle Angelegenheit und mangels Alternativen der Belieferung sonstwo in der Welt könnte man die verarbeitende Industrie doch wunderbar ins eigene Land zwingen so dass diese Rohstoffe doppelt wertvoll sind.
Wie ist das zu bewerkstelligen?
Man schließt die größten der Minen im Land zu einem Großkonzern zusammen. Der besseren Kontrolle wegen, um den Schwarzmarkt zu unterbinden und die Preise und die Ware im Griff zu haben.
Man hält die Preise über ein paar Jahre unten und versucht so entstehende Konkurrenz im Ausland mittels niedriger Preise unwirtschaftlich werden zu lassen. (Würde nicht das erste mal funktionieren). Zudem wird die Opposition in Malaysia bestens unterstützt, damit sie das Ihre dazu beiträgt.
Man hat Ausfuhrzölle auf die seltenen Erden und reduzierte Exportquoten, die nicht ausreichen, die Industrie weltweit ausreichend zu versorgen. Alles unter dem Deckmantel der dringenden Notwendigkeit heraus wegen der jahrelangen Umweltverschmutzungen. Man will die Welt ja nicht unnötig gegen sich aufbringen.
Und wenn nachkommende Hersteller außerhalb Chinas vielleicht erfolgreich boykottiert werden konnten und die niedrigen Preise das Ihre dazu beigetragen haben, ist es geschafft.
Niedrige Exportquoten sind von allen als gegeben akzeptiert. Die ausländische Konkurrenz hat es dank massiver Boykottversuche und dem Preisdumping nicht geschafft.
Die Großindustrie muss schon ins eigene Land kommen, und dort produzieren, wenn sie den Rohstoff haben will! Dann können auch die Preise wieder steigen. Teurer Rohstoff und Arbeitsplätze im eigenen Land. Was will man mehr?

Alles nur meine Meinung! Gerne Feedback.
Lynasier

[JoJo49]

Nachtrag: http://www.goldinvest.de/index.php/lynas-erste-verkaufsfaehi…
Lynas - Erste verkaufsfähige Seltene Erden-Produkte in wenigen Wochen
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Aktuelles aus dem HC_Forum:
http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1921707&ms…
kuantan monitor team update status (omgwen3rds) Trade LYC with
:::
Excerpt from the PDNH Facebook page:
-------------------------------------

Source: http://www.facebook.com/groups/PDNHP

Kuantan Monitoring Team is neither Pro-Lynas nor Anti-Lynas.

As a responsible monitoring body, it will do its very best to give as accurate the readings on radiation level as possible without being biased towards Lynas or any other plants.

This team was set up on 26/12/12 by a few senior Kuantan residents out of grave concern for our health, our livelihood and the responsibility towards our future generation.
--------------------------------------

Just released from the same source the leader of the monitoring team Frank Poh Tan.

Source:

http://www.facebook.com/frank.tanpohpeng

Frank Tan Poh Peng

Please take note that :

Kuantan Monitoring Team will cease operation with effect from today since it no longer has the radiation detector.
________________________________________________________________________________________________

und weiter aktuelle Berichte zum Thema und anderen Explorern/Produzenten:

http://rareearthinvestingnews.com/8812-rare-earth-mega-compa…
Rare Earth “Mega-company” Taking Shape
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…



http://the-gold-report.blogspot.de/2013/01/gold-and-rare-ear…
Gold and Rare Earths in America
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…



http://blog.metal-pages.com/2013/01/02/rare-earths-price-cyc…
Rare earths price cycle makes headwinds for western producers
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…


http://www.goldinvest.de/index.php/molycorp-und-die-uebernah…
Molycorp und die Übernahme
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_________________________________________________________________________________________________


Zur SMSL zu ihren Ankündugungen und zur Wirklichkeit:
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&vi…
Saturday, 29 December 2012 09:07 Uhr
MASSIVE New Year's eve protest expected at Lynas doorstep
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…


http://afr.com/p/business/companies/malaysians_latest_drive_…
Malaysians’ latest drive against Lynas plant
PUBLISHED: 31 Dec 2012 17:52:58 | UPDATED: 02 Jan 2013 01:45:51
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…


Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

Mit IMHO weiteren interessanten Links (Infos) zum Thema auf folgenden Seiten.


http://rareearthinvestingnews.com/8776-market-update-china-c…

Market Update: China Cuts REE Export Quotas by 27 Percent
Friday December 28, 2012, 11:08am PST

China has issued its first batch of rare earth export quotas for 2013, and the total comes in 27 percent lower than the first round of quotas issued in 2012.
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&h…



http://rareearthinvestingnews.com/8812-rare-earth-mega-compa…
Rare Earth “Mega-company” Taking Shape
Monday January 7, 2013, 4:15am PST
By Adam Currie - Exclusive to Rare Earth Investing News

In a move that reflects China’s intent to retain its dominance over the rare earth element (REE) market, the country’s largest producer confirmed that it is taking steps to gain control of 12 other firms. If successful, it will effectively form the world’s first REE “mega-company.”
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…



Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

Fett unterlegte Texte führen im Original zu weiteren Links.

Grüsse JoJo


http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/lynas-ramps-up-rare-e…
Lynas ramps up rare earth processing in Malaysia
8 January, 2013 Alex Heber

Australia’s Lynas Corporation yesterday commissioned its controversial rare earth plant in Malaysia.

The first delivery of commercial rare earth product is expected in the next few weeks.

In a statement released yesterday Lynas said they have successfully begun cracking and leaching rare earth extraction units and production will continue to ramp up over the next three to four months.
Lynas Corporation's Malaysian plant.

This is another significant milestone for Lynas,” said Lynas executive chairman Nicholas Curtis.

Following the announcement the company’s shares rose 14 per cent.

It was a good day for rare earth companies around the world yesterday with Molycorp and Great Western Minerals also seeing their share prices rise by 9.8 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.

At full production Molycorp, Lynas and Great Western are expected to end China's grip on the rare earth market of which China currently controls more than 95 per cent of the global supply, mining.com reported.

In November Australian Mining reported Lynas had received its first shipment of about 100 containers of rare earth concentrate at the Malaysian plant. At the time the company expected the first kiln feed to take place just a couple of days later.

However, the company has been embroiled in legal action launched by the Save Malaysia, Stop Lynas group which aimed to block Lynas from acquiring a temporary operating licence for the new facility.

“The safe and efficient operation of the LAMP is now a reality, and we are providing real-time data that assures people the LAMP is entirely safe for our local communities and the environment,” Curtis said.

Protests took place outside the company’s Sydney head office in November last year amid concerns from the Greens that radio active waste produced at the Malayasian plant would be shipped back to Australia.

Read more about:

Lynas Corporation, Malaysia, rare earth concentrate « Previous | Next »
Related articles
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[JoJo49]

LYC Lynas Corporation Limited
January 2013
7th Operations Update
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LYC&E=ASX&N=7151…
7 January 2013
LYNAS ADVANCED MATERIAL PLANT UPDATE
SUCCESSFUL COMMISSIONING OF CRACKING AND LEACHING RARE EARTH EXTRACTION UNITS AND FEED TO SOLVENT EXTRACTION UNITS
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…



http://www.indmin.com/Article/3137763/Channel/19523/Lynas-to…
Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…



http://resourceinvestingnews.com/48251-production-to-resume-…
Resource Market News Return to Resource Market News Directory
Production to Resume at Lynas’ Malaysian Plant, After Success with Cracking and Leaching Units
Monday January 7, 2013, 8:18am PS
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Gogleübersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…



http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2013/01/07/Lynas_ram…
Lynas ramps up Malaysian plant
Monday, January 07, 2013 » 11:25pm
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/china-sets-first-ra…
China Sets First Rare Earth Output Quota for 2013 at 46,900 Tons
By Bloomberg News - Jan 7, 2013 7:58 AM GMT+0100
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@ ein erfolgreiches 2013

Grüsse JoJo