LYNAS - Faktenthread, Analysen, Querverweise u. Meldungen zum Unternehmen (Seite 80)

[websin]

diskussion hier:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1110967-1-10/lyna…

[Ronny06]

Hallo,

wann findet die nÄchste gerichtliche Anhörung statt?

Grüsse

[JoJo49]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.028.139 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 16.01.13 13:30:23

Danke!

Das überlasse ich gerne Dir und das einfach weil mein Englisch grottenschlecht ist.

lg JoJo


Lynas From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynas
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Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…

[Fuenfvorzwoelf]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.027.687 von JoJo49 am 16.01.13 11:48:57

JoJo,

super analysiert!

Der Beitrag ist bereichernd und es lohnt sich, darüber ein wenig mehr nachzudenken als sonst!

Sollte man mal auf Hotcopper zur Diskussion stellen.

lg Matze

[JoJo49]

Der folgende Bericht bezieht sich zwar in der Hauptsache auf Silber gibt aber IMHO einen umfassende Übersicht über die zukünftige Rohstoffentwicklung weiterer Rohstoffe wie die der "Seltenen Erden" in Bezug auf den weiter steigenden Bedarf und ihrer Preisentwicklung.

Bei allem gehe ich davon aus, dass China kein Interesse hat REO-Produzenten außerhalb Chinas durch Maßnahmen wie Dumpingpreise zu verhindern.
1.- würde das ihnen nicht gelingen!
2.- fordert China genau das Gegenteil!
3.- belegen alle internationale Studien, dass China bei der technischen Entwicklung, der Energie- und Umweltproblematik in der sich China immer mehr befinden wird, in ein paar Jahren auf Importe von REO angewiesen sind.

Was würde beim Gegenteil passieren was ja immer wieder IMHO unsinniger Weise behauptet wird?

Den Weltmarkt mit Dumpingpreise zu fluten würde vor allen Dingen dazu führen das die 23% Reserven die China nur noch besitzt noch schneller verbraucht sein werden, keine REO abhängige Produkte ins Land locken kann, ihre REO-Produzenten mit Milliarden subventionieren muss und dazu
billige ausländische Produkte importieren muss die China durch Dumpingpreise subventioniert hat was in China zusätzlich noch viele Arbeitsplätze kosten würde einhergehend mit Knoff hoff Verlust durch wegbleiben auswärtiger Globalplayer die ansonsten in China produzieren würden.

Kurz gesagt, China würde damit einen Teufelskreislauf in eigener Regie auslösen.


Zusätzlich würden alle auswärtigen REO-Produzenten und die es mal werden wollen pleite gehen die Gläubiger und Aktionäre wären damit faktisch enteignet und die Insolvenzverwalter würden billigst an clevere Großinvestoren verkaufen die dann mit den Bereits erschlossenen Minen und Produktionsanlagen billigst REO produzieren können und so auch für den Rest der chinesischen REO-Produzenten konkurrieren können bis China die letzten Reserven ausgebeutet hat und was dann?

Kann das im Interesse von China sein?

http://www.goldseiten.de/artikel/159647--Grosses-technisches…
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:::

Der amerikanische Autor Stephen Leeb bestätigt in seinem Buch "Die gelbe Gefahr" meine seit Jahren publizierte energetische Betrachtungsweise, dass die Mineralien sicherlich nicht geologisch zur Neige gehen werden, sondern es energetisch nicht mehr möglich sein wird, die beständig schlechter werdenden Erze noch zu fördern. Metalle werden unter Schwankungen immer teuerer werden müssen, solange, bis eine neue nachhaltige Energiewirtschaft es ermöglichen wird, auch die magersten Erze noch umweltverträglich zu fördern. Derzeit verlässt sich die globale Wirtschaft noch immer zu ca. 90% auf die klarer Weise zur Neige gehenden fossilen Energien.

Der Aufbau einer solchen nachhaltigen Energiewirtschaft selbst wird jedoch Unmengen an Rohstoffen verschlingen: Kupfer und Silber für die Smartgrids, Stahl, Seltene Erden für die Windturbinen, Indium für Solarmodule, und so weiter und so weiter … China hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, bis 2030 20% seiner Energieversorgung aus nachhaltigen Quellen zu decken und kauft daher weltweit die hierfür benötigten Rohstoffe auf, wo es sie bekommt. Es fördert im eigenen Land so schnell und so viel Gold wie es nur kann, um sich diese Quellen auch zukünftig erschliessen zu können (Chinas Jahresförderung ist mit großem Abstand weltweit die prozentual größte bezogen auf die ausgewiesenen Reserven). Während hier also eine klare Strategie zu erkennen ist, verwaltet die alte Welt nur ihr zunehmendes Siechtum von Wahl zu Wahl, ohne langfristige Strategie oder Richtung.

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Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

http://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/1233767/rare-earth-a-ra…
Rare earth a rare chance for Australia
Jan. 15, 2013, 4 a.m.

AUSTRALIA is poised to cash in on worldwide demand for rare earth elements in the wake of China's reported export restrictions on the highly prized commodities.

The nation's largest current processor of rare earths is the Lynas Corporation, which has just received a green light from the Malaysian government to begin cracking and leaching rare earths, said progress was being stalled by regulatory red tape.

"This is another significant milestone for Lynas," Lynas executive chairman Nicholas Curtis said of the breakthrough in Malaysia.

Until now Australia still did not have an actual producer of rare earth metals.

During the next three to four months Lynas Corporation's extraction units and production will continue to ramp up.

He said following Malaysia announcement the company's shares rose 14 per cent. Rare earth companies' share prices also rose worldwide.

He said within three to four years Australia should have several rare earth mines in operation and would be a major player on the world stage.

"The Toongi prospect for instance is a site in the central west [near Dubbo] is potentially a world-class source of rare earth elements," he said.

"China has dominated the world in terms of supply and demand of rare earth elements but Australia now has the opportunity to dominate international trade of certain rare earth metals, including yttrium, europium, terbium and dysprosium.

"These metals are highly prized for their use in low weight-high power magnets that are required for electric vehicles and wind turbines, along with europium, also supplying our much loved high-definition screens, LED lighting, computer hard-discs, CAT scanners.

"They've been nominated by the US Department of Energy as being critical to the global green energy future but they are in short supply around the world.

"Australia is just beginning to tap its rare earth resources and the prospects for growth in this sector are extremely promising.

"At present it's estimated to hold 6 per cent of the world's rare earths but according to CSIRO this is not the full story."

He said several other Australian rare earth exploration companies were waiting to get under way with their production; Arafura Resources (ARU) was one with a major project in late stages of its development.

It has a mine life expectancy of more than 20 years with yearly production capacity of 20,000 tonnes of rare earth elements, along with phosphate, uranium and gypsum.

Other exploration companies waiting to get under way with production are Peak Resources (PEK), Hastings Rare Metals (Ltd) and Victory Metals.

Google übersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?hl=de&sl=en&u=http://ww…


Grüsse JoJo

[JoJo49]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.023.154 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 15.01.13 12:43:08

Danke!
War mir noch nicht bekannt und obwohl der Hinweis auf 35% Reserven schon ein paar Jahre her ist bin ich noch von diesem Wert ausgegangen.

Allerdings ist auf Grund der starken Nachfrage/Bedarf der vergangenen Jahre und weil China noch immer, auch mit illegalen Exporten, den Weltmarkt mit ca. 95% REO versorgt hat, ist IMHO diese Entwicklung nachvollziehbar.

Nichts ist gerade auch in Bezug auf die Rohstoffegruppe der "Seltenen Erden" unendlich mit Ausnahme der nachwachsenden Rohstoffe, aber allein mit denen werden wir u.a. auch bei den Bevölkerungszuwächsen die Zukunft nicht meisten können.

Dazu noch ein paar aktuelle Informationen aus dem HC-Forum:
http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1924063&ms…
interesting read (All.In) Trade LYC with
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1. Rare Earths Update: Lessening Chinese Dominance
One Signal To Watch
Last week the news broke that The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) will fund a new research center charged with developing new methods of rare earth production. The DoE will allocate US $120M to the Institute to be based in Ames, Iowa.
A Drop In The Bucket
This is a welcome sign, but we are left to wonder if it will make a dent in China’s global supply chain dominance in the rare earth (REE) space. $120M is a great deal of money, however when compared to the recently renewed wind tax credit of $12.2 billion, the $120M grant pales in comparison. This disparity appears to be another example of short-sighted thinking on the part of politicians. They appear more concerned about propping up a subsidized industry (renewables) than rebuilding a critical (even strategic) REE supply chain from the ground up. Ironically, with the necessity of permanent magnets in wind turbines, one would think that the bigger bang for the buck would be on funding and creating a relevant materials supply chain rather than subsidizing the wind industry.
With the strategic importance of REEs to national defense and high tech R&D, we think that streamlining permitting rules for rare earth mining and funding research for separating and processing these elements should be at the top of every policy maker’s list.
A Good First Step
Please don’t mistake us. The creation of this new institute is a positive step. It is interesting that the issues that propelled REEs to the front page of every newspaper in the world in 2009 and 2010 are still prevalent (Chinese dominance, predominantly). Nevertheless for some reason, the investorate has fallen out of love with REEs, as evidenced by both REE share prices and the prices of rare earth oxides. The table below shows the traditional “S-curve” pricing we have seen so often in the natural resource space. Dr. Tom Patton called this the “Mystery-History" curve.
MORNING NOTES 1 OF 5 1/14/2013
?????????????????????????Rare Earth Oxide 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Jan 7 2013
LanthanumOxide $4.88 $22.40 $104.10 $24.64 $19.54 $11
CeriumOxide $3.88 $21.60 $102 $24.79 $20.38 $12
NeodymiumOxide $19.12 $49.50 $234.40 $122.14 $105.31 $80
PraesodymiumOxide $18.03 $48 $197.30 $122.86 $108.85 $85
????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Dysprosium Oxide $115.67 $231.60
Europium Oxide ? ? ? $492.92 $559.80
Terbium Oxide $361.67 $557.80
Source: Metal Pages; Lynas website
$1,449.80
$2,842.90
$2,334.20
$1,085.71
$2,412.86
$2,074.29
$967.69
$2,020.00
$1,938
$630
$1,600
$1,300
??????????????????????????????????????????????????The after-effects of the Great Recession of 2008 have also helped depress REO prices.
REE Prices: The Wild Card
The chart above shows the meteoric rise and precipitous fall of select rare earth oxides (REOs). All prices are in USD/kg and FOB China1. We believe these prices will stabilize as global economic growth, especially in the emerging world, comes back to life. A “wringing out” of the volatility in REO2 prices will be a welcome sign and will provide clarity to investors looking to evaluate the present value of every rare earth project with a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) or other advanced study completed on it.
Nobody, except the Chinese, can control REO prices. It is China that is best positioned to weather the current pricing volatility and emerge in a stronger position. The consolidation of REE mining in China is no secret. The country is moving to suppress illegal mining and gain control of REE production. This is how they aim to control prices.
Last week, China’s Ministry of Land and Resources announced the first of two production quotas of 46,900 tones. The second production quota will likely be announced in Q2 2013. For the sake of comparison, in 2011, a full year production quota of 93,800 was mandated.
We do not think that the quota for 2013 will match that of 2011. The 2012 quotas were not made public. China is clamping down on this industry and attempting to control all aspects of it. The rationale, no doubt, being to firm pricing and protect their domestic industry and margins.
Export Quotas Are Flat, Too
It’s not only production quotas that are being manipulated. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM)3, the entity responsible for setting rare earth export quotas, released the first targets for 2013: 15,501 tonnes.
1 FOB stands for Free On Board and is a shipping term used to designate who is responsible (buyer or seller) for shipping costs. With respect to FOB China, the buyer would pay shipping costs.
2 As rare earths are typically separated and sold in their oxide form, deposits are typically referred to in their rare earth oxide equivalent.
3 http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/
MORNING NOTES 2 OF 5 1/14/2013
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Of this, 13,563 tonnes are light rare earths and 1,938 tonnes are medium and heavy rare earths. For the second year in a row, MOFCOM has elected to keep export quotas flat.
Policies such as these make the creation of the Critical Materials Institute here in the U.S. more important. Though the Obama Administration lodged a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the part of the US, Japan, and EU with regards to China’s REO export practices, we are more confident in the ability of research scientists to solve REE or advanced materials supply chain issues or faster and more completely than the WTO.
More Molycorp Missteps
Of course, the first step in establishing a REE supply chain outside of China involves a self- sufficient mine supply. Molycorp (MCP:NYSE) represents the most realistic North America near-term solution. Late last week the company issued a release stating that achieving their Phase I run rate of 19,050 tpy of REO would be delayed to mid-2013. In addition, plans for Phase II which would have increased the run rate to 40,000 tpy have been put on hold due to falling prices and weakening demand.
Finally, the company indicated that it anticipates lower than expected cash flow and revenue in 2013 and “is evaluating its capital needs for 2013.” Translation: More dilution is on the way for MCP shareholders and possibly a lower share price.
You can say what you want about MCP’s ability to destroy shareholder value (see chart below), but as the closest thing we have to a REE mining and magnet production company, we would argue that MCP's success is crucial to the entire non-Chinese REE industry.
The Way to Play Rare Earths in 2013: Listen to Price
Given that there now appears to be renewed interest by the DoE in rare earths and China continues to consolidate its REE industry, we would suggest focusing on the single data point which can render any REE project robustly economic or not: prices.
MORNING NOTES 3 OF 5 1/14/2013
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With access to capital for junior mining companies a challenge, we continue to encourage investors to watch those metrics that discovery projects are most sensitive to. One can use the Ten Point Factor Model to evaluate management capability, financial soundness, and eight other factors in the due diligence process. In an environment of falling REO prices, projects with the most manageable capital expenditure requirements have “wiggle room” when it comes to declining prices. In an era of increasing capital costs, this makes a focus on the level of REO prices all the more critical in your evaluation process.
As REEs are typically included in the industrial metals category, we watch macroeconomic data such as PMI or industrial production numbers from multiple countries throughout the world. While there is not necessarily a direct correlation, as industrial production recovers, we would expect REO prices to slow their rate of decline and follow suit. It appears that economic malaise has stopped, at least in the emerging world, and is regaining its footing. This indicates a possible economic “bottom” and is a positive sign for many industrial metals and minerals in 2013.
Another way to create wealth in this space is by focusing on specific REEs rather than the entire basket. It is no secret that the light REEs (LREEs) are in ample supply and are forecast to remain that way. This is in opposition to the heavy REEs (HREEs) which are less plentiful in supply and hence are forecast to maintain higher prices in coming years.
As evidence, we draw your attention to the 2013 export quotas in China we discussed above. Of the 15,501 tonnes of REOs allotted for export, only 12% of that total is directed towards HREOs. Translation: Find those discovery projects more heavily slanted towards the HREEs. This can aid in delivering a more robust and ultimately successful mining project.
Though the junior REE mining space has too many participants and is going to continue to inevitably shrink in size, we believe that returns can be generated in this space. The DoE is now beginning to develop ways to innovate in the rare earth production process. We think this is a positive first step in re-establishing a domestic REE supply chain in North American and should be supportive of North American-based REE exploration companies. For investors, focusing on market prices and macroeconomic data points, watching for stabilization will be the first, and perhaps most important, signal for participants in the REE space.

Cheers All.In


http://hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1924001&ms…
re: the mind games (vercengetrix)
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Forget the price for now. I'm assuming you all didn't buy into Lynas to make a short-term average sized profit. Just keep holding. People were bagging Linc Energy for the longest time calling it a dog stock, then look what happened. From 50 cents to $2 over a few weeks. The underlying value of Lynas is there, I assure you. Don't second guess you reasons for investing in this industry.

Your company has strategic military importance to the West as one of the few supply chains outside of China. Do you think superpowers and militaries around the world are going to suddenly stop needing precision-guided weapons and infantry gadgets? This isn't even counting the widespread civilian applications like clean energy products and smartphones.

Mt Weld is one of the largest and richest grade deposits of REE in the world (if not the highest?) and they aren't even done scoping its full potential yet. Australia is a tier one ally of the United States. We are the salvation of the West in terms of secure rare earth supply outside of China.

The US Department of Energy has gone on record to say there will be critical supply shortages over the next decade. They even had Congress pass a law to boost output of rare earths in America due to its importance to national security. You know the situation is bad when US legislators manage to agree on something.
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und für @ die es interessiert zum "Short Selling"
https://www.asxonline.com/intradoc-cgi/idcplg?IdcService=ASX…

Grüsse JoJo

[Fuenfvorzwoelf]

Sorry, falls der Link schon gepostet wurde, war ein paar Wochen in Urlaub und habe nicht alles zurückgelesen! Die Quote ist sicherlich bekannt, aber dass China nur noch 23 % der Reserven hält, finde ich erstaunlich. Jedenfalls ist das Angebot bei bestimmten REE möglicherweise die nächsten Jahre auf Kante genäht. Bekommen wir nochmals eine Überblasung in den Preisen?

China's Ministry of Commerce on Friday announced the first round of rare earth export quotas for 2013.

The first batch of quotas totals 15,501 tonnes, about half the quota set for all of 2012, the ministry said in a statement on its website.
Of the total, 13,563 tonnes are allocated for light rare earths, while 1,938 tonnes are for medium and heavy rare earth metals, it said.
Twenty-four companies will share the quota, including Inner Mongolia's Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Co., the country's largest rare earth producer.
As the world's largest rare earths supplier, China serves more than 90 percent of the world's demand for rare earths, a group of 17 elements that are widely used in high-tech products ranging from flat-screen TVs to lasers and hybrid cars.

However, the country holds only 23 percent of the world's rare earth reserves, and decades of excessive exploitation have greatly damaged the environment.

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/counselorsreport/europe…

[JoJo49]

http://www.indmin.com/Article/3140175/Channel/19523/Industri…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=avwGi…
Veröffentlicht am 11.01.2013


This week on Industrial Minerals TV: graphite price movements, updated rare earths quotas and economic improvement take place in China, frac sand developments are reported in the US and Lynas Corp. announces its LAMP production schedule in Malaysia.

Googleübersetzt: http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=en&tl=de&js=n&prev=_…


@ eine erfolgreiche Woche

Grüsse JoJo

[FutureEarth]

Hallo 5v12,

guten morgen....warst schon lange nicht mehr online...warst Du verscholen oder hast DU mit suffkopf die Vorbereitungen für die 3€ - Party für den Spätsommer vorbereitet :-)

Beste Grüße
FutureEarth

PS: egal was DU liest im FORUM den Humor dabei nicht verlieren - oder?