Rohstoff-Explorer: Research oder Neuvorstellung (Seite 1340)
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America's Going to Lose the Oil Price War
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-12/americas-go…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.890.654 von likeshares am 26.01.15 21:28:03
Tag Likeshares,
Du hast ja immer, in Bezug auf Rohstoffe, China hochgehalten
Stichwort 'Ruder rumreissen' bla
hast mal einige der letzten Meldungen von da drüben gelesen?
die waren nicht so toll
glaube diese Runde mindestens als Punktsieger zu beenden wird sehr schwierig für Dich
Deine Bestandsaufnahmen/Prognosen werden finde ich auch immer feinfühliger
ich find sie nur, noch, ein Stück zu weit vom Wunbsch gelenkt
Gruß
P.
Tag Likeshares,
Du hast ja immer, in Bezug auf Rohstoffe, China hochgehalten
Stichwort 'Ruder rumreissen' bla
hast mal einige der letzten Meldungen von da drüben gelesen?
die waren nicht so toll
glaube diese Runde mindestens als Punktsieger zu beenden wird sehr schwierig für Dich
Deine Bestandsaufnahmen/Prognosen werden finde ich auch immer feinfühliger
ich find sie nur, noch, ein Stück zu weit vom Wunbsch gelenkt
Gruß
P.
1400 und weiter kann die Wall of Worry laufen. Zwischenzeitlich Konso, siehe CoT. Mal die Minen beobachten. Aber momentan ist das Metall stärker als die Produzenten.
Ich glaube, Haupttreiber sind: Nullrenditen, bzw. negative (GOld zahlt keine Zinsen!!), und natürlich die Unsicherheiten geopolitischer und finanztechnischer Art. Nachdem alle Währungen abwerten ausser dem Dollar, ist GOld dieses Jahr die stärkste Währung. Kannst ja mal den Eurochart, etc. anschauen, Nichts ausser dem USD und dem CHF kann da dagegenhalten.
Und mit China hast du Recht, wobei ich mir denke, dass China auch den Leuten das GOld lässt, die können nach der Währungsreform damit starten und loslegen.
Wir kaufen Plastik aus China gegen Cash, China kauft mit Cash Gold, Kupfer, Immos in der Welt und Infrastruktur. Wer tauscht hier gutes gegen schlechtes Geld?
Ich glaube, Haupttreiber sind: Nullrenditen, bzw. negative (GOld zahlt keine Zinsen!!), und natürlich die Unsicherheiten geopolitischer und finanztechnischer Art. Nachdem alle Währungen abwerten ausser dem Dollar, ist GOld dieses Jahr die stärkste Währung. Kannst ja mal den Eurochart, etc. anschauen, Nichts ausser dem USD und dem CHF kann da dagegenhalten.
Und mit China hast du Recht, wobei ich mir denke, dass China auch den Leuten das GOld lässt, die können nach der Währungsreform damit starten und loslegen.
Wir kaufen Plastik aus China gegen Cash, China kauft mit Cash Gold, Kupfer, Immos in der Welt und Infrastruktur. Wer tauscht hier gutes gegen schlechtes Geld?
Gold versus USD
Ich hatte schon gegen Ende 2014 auf die Piks bei den Goldleases hingewiesen. Nochmal der Chart.In den letzten Tagen ist Gold ganz locker über die 1300$ gegangen, trotz des stierigen USD!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=…
Es gab Zuflüsse in die Gold ETFs, obwohl es der Dollar auf Spitzenniveau eigentlich verhindern sollte? Ein wesentlicher Grund ist China!
http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/china-report
Schenkt man den Prognosen des WGC glauben, dann sollen die Importe in das Land der Mitte, bis 2017 um weitere 20% gegenüber den höchsten aus 2013 steigen. Der wachsende Mittelstand geht gern einkaufen. Überraschend daran ist, das was gern gekauft wird, nämlich Münzen und Barren. Über die Börse von Shanghai soll der Goldmarkt mehr Einfluss auf den Weltmarkt bekommen. Bleibt die Frage woher das Gold kommen soll das in China so gern gekauft wird, noch dazu physisch. Den Erfahrungen des WGC nach, taucht von privater Hand gekauftes Gold selten wieder am Markt auf. Die hohe Nachfrage verschwindet in den Wohnungen des Mittelstandes und ist damit vom Markt weit entfernt.
Kaum Exploration, langsam sinkende primäre Produktion, in erster Linie wegen Minenschließungen durch den gefallenen Goldpreis, zeigen erste Wirkung. Ein weiterer Treiber dürfte mit Griechenlands Wahl von Syriza, dem weiter schwelenden Ukraine Konflikt, dem ungesund niedrigen Ölpreis mit dadurch wegfallender Nachfrage der Ölförderstaaten am Weltmarkt, sein. Und das nachdem Obama die Finanzkrise für beendet erklärte?
Geradezu abenteuerlich stehen da die neuerlichen Prognosen der großen Bankhäuser, zu niedrigeren Goldpreisen 2015, der Entwicklung entgegen?
Wem soll man da sein Vertrauen schenken?
PS.: mir selbst natürlich 1200 - 1250 für 2015!
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.875.825 von Popeye82 am 24.01.15 21:53:31tja und dann überleg mal, ob das für jetzige minenwerte die noch viele jahre in produktion sind und den output halten oder steigern können gut oder schlecht ist und was das für den goldpreis heisst.
von daher für mich klar, dass dieser sektor langfristig mein absoluter liebling sein wird.
(aktuell von den charts her beginnt jetzt mal eine konsoloidierung vermutlich)
von daher für mich klar, dass dieser sektor langfristig mein absoluter liebling sein wird.
(aktuell von den charts her beginnt jetzt mal eine konsoloidierung vermutlich)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.872.741 von likeshares am 24.01.15 10:36:07
Retreating discovery rates +exploration budget cuts 'to impact industry, from 2016'
www.miningweekly.com/article/retreating-discovery-rates-and-…
"TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Retreating discovery rates and reduced exploring will impact global output from 2016 onward.
Financial information firm SNL Financial director for the metals and mining database Glen Jones this week said that in the low-price environment, discovery rates were exacerbated by budget cutbacks, socio- and geopolitical risk and financing constraints.
“Current activity is a warning of future scarcity. We will feel the effects of what’s going on right now in the next five to ten years,” he said.
In a presentation during the Cambridge House International Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2015, he noted that while gold output reached a peak in 2008, after 2016, output will start going down, owing to a fewer ounces being discovered and longer time frames to move new discoveries through to production.
In 2013, global gold output was about 84.2-million ounces of gold, 55% or 46.3-million of which majors accounted for.
This total was expected to rise through to 2016, as a result of current late-stage projects coming on stream, but after that, Jones said, the market was staring down a looming supply deficit.
RESERVE REPLACEMENT
Discovery is the only way of securing new reserves, Jones stressed, noting that brownfields exploration around existing mines would not be enough to replace what had been taken out of the ground.
However, exploration budgets had in recent years dwindled from its 2012 peak.
He noted that exploration outlays peaked at around $21.5-billion in 2012, and fell 29% to $15.2-billion in 2013, and by about a further 47% to $11.4-billion in 2014. This was a dramatic decrease and was much more rapid that the rise in exploration budgets seen from 2009 to 2012.
Gold was by far still the metal most explored for, and has an inverse relationship with copper exploration.
Jones said that the budget-to-revenue percentage of gold miners peaked between 1995 and 1997, when the majors spent about 4% of their total budgets on exploration. Then in 2003/04, that percentage dropped to about 1.5%, when the majors changed their philosophy to let the juniors do the exploration and then buy the projects later.
However, up to 2012, budget cutbacks and financial woes were again forcing companies to cut back on exploration dollars.
Jones said junior exploration dollars peaked in 2007, before starting a gradual retreat that again signalled a trend change that the majors were once more starting to increase their exploration budgets, as the juniors struggled with financing issues.
“From 2008 to 2014, the equity raised by juniors matched their exploration budgets, but by 2011, things started to get unhinged. In 2014, exploration recovered somewhat, but to nowhere near what it was in the past,” Jones said.
FEWER FINDS
Jones said that grass roots exploration budgets, which was where new discoveries come from, had decreased to about 32% of the total exploration budget, down from 42% previously. This discrepancy was being picked up by increased brownfields exploration, as companies regarded it safer.
Late-stage exploration had also taken a knock in recent months, he noted.
Major mining areas such as Canada, the US, Mexico and Australia had seen significant exploration investments, while exploration efforts were less pronounced in deemed high-risk jurisdictions.
Jones pointed out that since the third quarter last year there had been an uptick in exploration investment, and he hoped that this trend would continue into 2015. This drilling was not really being focused on new discoveries, but on resource extensions and around existing mine sites.
The number of initial resource announcements had also decreased significantly.
Jones underlined that fewer ounces would be available in the future. He said the cumulative potential for late-stage projects currently in the feasibility phase had the potential to produce up to about 22.4-million ounces a year when they came on stream.
However, when the projects located in high-risk jurisdictions were taken away, the number of ounces a year shrank about 17% to 18.7-million ounces. Further, if lower-grade projects were also removed from the pipeline, owing to a possible lower gold price, the potential future gold output fell by about 60% to only nine-million ounces a year.
According to him, global gold output in the past three years totalled about 1.2-billion ounces. In this period, only about 700 000 new ounces of gold were discovered, and when using a 75% resources-to-reserves conversion rate, and an average of 90% mill recovery, these discoveries were only going to replace 50% of what had been mined to in the period.
“However, today only about 34% of the gold in these discoveries had been converted to reserves and many of these discoveries are low grade and some are located in high-risk areas, so the real amount that’s going to be available might in fact be much less,” he said.
LONGER LEAD TIMES
Jones said that between 1999 and 2013 about 217 deposits were discovered worth about 1.66-billion ounces. The world produced in this time 1.76-billion ounces, resulting in a ten-million ounce deficit. If this trend continued, he warned, the industry will certainly be in trouble.
Grades of the top five mining companies had declined with the declining gold price, in tandem with rising costs. Many companies had also lowered their reserve calculation price, resulting in declining residual values.
The average margin gold companies make had also declined to about 16% in 2013, and Jones said that he expected the average margin per ounce for 2014 to be much less.
Jones argued that should there not be any new gold discoveries made in the future, the world’s current gold companies had in total about 18 years of future production left before all known reserves would be depleted.
Hi research had found that the time from deposit discovery to producing mine had also increased significantly. From 1994 to about 2003, the average time form discovery to production took about ten years, in which 48 mines went into production. In the next decade 126 mines that took on average 17 years to achieve production, while future operations could take more than 20 years to get to production.
Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter "
Retreating discovery rates +exploration budget cuts 'to impact industry, from 2016'
www.miningweekly.com/article/retreating-discovery-rates-and-…
"TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Retreating discovery rates and reduced exploring will impact global output from 2016 onward.
Financial information firm SNL Financial director for the metals and mining database Glen Jones this week said that in the low-price environment, discovery rates were exacerbated by budget cutbacks, socio- and geopolitical risk and financing constraints.
“Current activity is a warning of future scarcity. We will feel the effects of what’s going on right now in the next five to ten years,” he said.
In a presentation during the Cambridge House International Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2015, he noted that while gold output reached a peak in 2008, after 2016, output will start going down, owing to a fewer ounces being discovered and longer time frames to move new discoveries through to production.
In 2013, global gold output was about 84.2-million ounces of gold, 55% or 46.3-million of which majors accounted for.
This total was expected to rise through to 2016, as a result of current late-stage projects coming on stream, but after that, Jones said, the market was staring down a looming supply deficit.
RESERVE REPLACEMENT
Discovery is the only way of securing new reserves, Jones stressed, noting that brownfields exploration around existing mines would not be enough to replace what had been taken out of the ground.
However, exploration budgets had in recent years dwindled from its 2012 peak.
He noted that exploration outlays peaked at around $21.5-billion in 2012, and fell 29% to $15.2-billion in 2013, and by about a further 47% to $11.4-billion in 2014. This was a dramatic decrease and was much more rapid that the rise in exploration budgets seen from 2009 to 2012.
Gold was by far still the metal most explored for, and has an inverse relationship with copper exploration.
Jones said that the budget-to-revenue percentage of gold miners peaked between 1995 and 1997, when the majors spent about 4% of their total budgets on exploration. Then in 2003/04, that percentage dropped to about 1.5%, when the majors changed their philosophy to let the juniors do the exploration and then buy the projects later.
However, up to 2012, budget cutbacks and financial woes were again forcing companies to cut back on exploration dollars.
Jones said junior exploration dollars peaked in 2007, before starting a gradual retreat that again signalled a trend change that the majors were once more starting to increase their exploration budgets, as the juniors struggled with financing issues.
“From 2008 to 2014, the equity raised by juniors matched their exploration budgets, but by 2011, things started to get unhinged. In 2014, exploration recovered somewhat, but to nowhere near what it was in the past,” Jones said.
FEWER FINDS
Jones said that grass roots exploration budgets, which was where new discoveries come from, had decreased to about 32% of the total exploration budget, down from 42% previously. This discrepancy was being picked up by increased brownfields exploration, as companies regarded it safer.
Late-stage exploration had also taken a knock in recent months, he noted.
Major mining areas such as Canada, the US, Mexico and Australia had seen significant exploration investments, while exploration efforts were less pronounced in deemed high-risk jurisdictions.
Jones pointed out that since the third quarter last year there had been an uptick in exploration investment, and he hoped that this trend would continue into 2015. This drilling was not really being focused on new discoveries, but on resource extensions and around existing mine sites.
The number of initial resource announcements had also decreased significantly.
Jones underlined that fewer ounces would be available in the future. He said the cumulative potential for late-stage projects currently in the feasibility phase had the potential to produce up to about 22.4-million ounces a year when they came on stream.
However, when the projects located in high-risk jurisdictions were taken away, the number of ounces a year shrank about 17% to 18.7-million ounces. Further, if lower-grade projects were also removed from the pipeline, owing to a possible lower gold price, the potential future gold output fell by about 60% to only nine-million ounces a year.
According to him, global gold output in the past three years totalled about 1.2-billion ounces. In this period, only about 700 000 new ounces of gold were discovered, and when using a 75% resources-to-reserves conversion rate, and an average of 90% mill recovery, these discoveries were only going to replace 50% of what had been mined to in the period.
“However, today only about 34% of the gold in these discoveries had been converted to reserves and many of these discoveries are low grade and some are located in high-risk areas, so the real amount that’s going to be available might in fact be much less,” he said.
LONGER LEAD TIMES
Jones said that between 1999 and 2013 about 217 deposits were discovered worth about 1.66-billion ounces. The world produced in this time 1.76-billion ounces, resulting in a ten-million ounce deficit. If this trend continued, he warned, the industry will certainly be in trouble.
Grades of the top five mining companies had declined with the declining gold price, in tandem with rising costs. Many companies had also lowered their reserve calculation price, resulting in declining residual values.
The average margin gold companies make had also declined to about 16% in 2013, and Jones said that he expected the average margin per ounce for 2014 to be much less.
Jones argued that should there not be any new gold discoveries made in the future, the world’s current gold companies had in total about 18 years of future production left before all known reserves would be depleted.
Hi research had found that the time from deposit discovery to producing mine had also increased significantly. From 1994 to about 2003, the average time form discovery to production took about ten years, in which 48 mines went into production. In the next decade 126 mines that took on average 17 years to achieve production, while future operations could take more than 20 years to get to production.
Edited by: Creamer Media Reporter "
und die energiewerte falllen am schlimmsten
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 48.875.525 von Popeye82 am 24.01.15 19:54:52nur die goldies nicht (wobei charttechnisch nun konsophase... geht ja alles nach lehrbuch)
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