Diskussion zu Silver Elephant Mining Corp, ehemals Prophecy Development Corp. (Seite 2336)

[hagadi]

Das ganze Negativ-Gedunke einiger Querulanten kann man getrost beseite lassen und sich vor Augen führen, was bereits vor 2 Jahren Fakt wurde:

PCY genießt das Vertrauen der mongolischen Regierung und bekam den Auftrag
die Energieprobleme des Landes zu lösen und wird dieses auch einvernehmlich mit der mongolischen Regierung umsetzen.

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/mongolia-gives-prophecy-…

Mongolia gives Prophecy green light to build new coal power station


By: Matthew Hill
21st November 2011
TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Prophecy Coal, the junior that graduated to the TSX main board last month, received the green light from the Mongolian government to build its 600 MW Chandgana coal-fired power plant in the east of the country, the company said on Monday.

The licence was the first the government had issued for that size power plant, and sets the project up to become the first new privately owned coal-fired plant in the country when it starts sending out electricity in early 2016.

Mongolia is seen as vulnerable when it comes to fuel and power, as it is heavily reliant on neighbours China and Russia.

A dramatic rise in its mining sector is the main driver of the country's rapidly increasing power consumption, with Energy International forecasting demand will be nearly double the country’s electricity supplies by 2015.

The International Monetary Fund predicted a 600 MW-plus shortfall in supply by 2016.

“There is an understanding among all stakeholders that Mongolia, being one of world's fastest growing economies, needs additional power,” Prophecy chairperson and CEO John Lee said in a statement.

The next steps for the company before it can bring the project into production include completing a feasibility study, which it anticipates by the end of the year, to be followed by a power purchase agreement in the first quarter of 2012.

Prophecy then hopes to conclude project financing negotiations in the third quarter of next year and start building the Chandgana power plant and the mine that will feed it in the first quarter of 2013.

The first 150 MW unit is planned to start producing power by January 2016.

Prophecy’s Chandgana Tal and Chandgana Khavtgai coal deposits will supply coal for the plant.

Chris Ackerman, a spokesperson for the company, said the capital costs for the power project were anticipated to be between $600-million and $800-million, though the feasibility study would provide firm estimates.

“There has been a lot of interest from some of the State-owned companies in China and investment banks in the US” to provide funding for Chandgana, he said.

Last week, Ivanhoe Mines, which owns the giant Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold deposit in Mongolia said it hoped the Chinese and Mongolian governments would strike a deal for the former Soviet State to import power soon, so that it could connect the mine to Chinese power by the third quarter of next year.

The company has ordered more diesel generators to supply power while building Oyu Tolgoi, it said.

Ultimately, Prophecy aims to take advantage of surging power demand in the region, and build a second phase at Chandgana that will produce a further 3 600 MW.

In addition to the Chandgana project, Prophecy also owns the Ulaan Ovoo coal mine in the north of the country, where it plans to strike a deal to sell the coal to Russian customers.

Shares in the company were up nearly 2% on the TSX at C$0.54 each, making it one of the few counters in the green while the broader market had fallen 1.4% by 15:04.

DAS WAR VOR 1 1/2 JAHREN!

Und damals brachte es den Kurs bereits auf CAD 0,54...

Wo wird er wohl nach dem Trading Halt eröffnen, sobald das nächste
grüne Licht in Form eines unterzeichneten PPA gegeben wurde.
Wir werden es bald erfahren....es trennen uns davon nicht mehr Jahre oder Monate....

....nein eigentlich nicht einmal mehr Wochen...es sind nur noch wenige TAGE

PCY IST AM ZIEL

Da braucht es keine Diskussionen mehr, die Taten sprechen für sich und wer nicht dabei sein will läßt es einfach bleiben.
Damit kann ich gut leben

[sebaldo]

Ausnahmsweise mal was zur Fa.

Seit Anfang März d.J. keine Trades mehr von Insidern. Kann es sein, dass sich das Management während der PPA-Verhandlungen bewusst zurück hält, um sich nicht dem Vorwurf des Insiderhandels auszusetzen?

http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=Prop…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=Prop…


Ähnliches ist übrigens bei NKL zu beobachten.

[fraxinus]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde von MadMod moderiert. Grund: Provokation

[speedlimiter]

Zitat von hagadi: Wieso hab ich nur das Gefühl das es nicht jedem bewußt ist, welch Potential in der Mongolei gerade in den gewaltigen Oberflächenkohlevorkommen und deren Vermarktung jeglicher Art und Weise steckt. Also noch mal eine
Übersicht in dieser Sache.

http://www.prophecycoal.com/crucial-coal-powering-mongolias-…

Crucial Coal: Powering Mongolia’s future

Electricity demand in Mongolia- major driver from world-class mineral deposits

The dramatic and continuing rise in Mongolia’s energy demand is being driven by the rapid development of the country’s mining based economy. During the period of 2007‐2011, electricity consumption in Mongolia increased on an average 6% per year. However, the Ministry of Mineral Resource of Mongolia estimates that overall electricity demand is expected to grow at 14% in the future. Major international mining firms have become involved in developing Mongolia’s over-abundance of resources, including 15 world-class strategic mineral deposits with an estimate resource value of over $1.2 trillion. Projects of this magnitude require vast quantities of power from reliable sources.

Figure1. Typical strategic deposits in Mongolia



Source: Mongolia stock exchange
Southern Mongolia- Richly endowed with Natural Resources but lacking power

The South Gobi region, in south of Mongolia, is currently isolated from the Central energy system. The mines of South Gobi that are in operation must, therefore, supply their own electricity. Power demand in that region is expected to grow rapidly as a result of both the existing and new mining developments. The two biggest current players in South Gobi are:

Oyu Tolgoi (OT) – a world-class gold and copper mine being developed by Ivanhoe Mines. The deposit is estimated to hold over 35 million tonnes of copper and 1,275 tonnes of gold, according to European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. OT is poised to generate $61 billion over 27 years, according to the Mongolia Stock Exchange.
Tavan Tolgoi (TT) – the largest undeveloped coal deposit in the world. TT is estimated to hold reserves of over 6 billion tonnes of coal, according to European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Mongolia Stock Exchange estimates that TT will be operable for 200+ years, with an annual return of $1.6 billion for the first 29 years.
A presentation by the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia forecasts total demand from major customers in the South Gobi region of around 870MW to 1130MW.

Figure 2. Forecast electricity demand from the major South Gobi mines


Source: Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia



Power supply in Mongolia- dominated by Central Energy System (CES)

The power system of Mongolia consists of the three unconnected energy systems (the Central, Western and Eastern Energy Systems), diesel generators and heat-only boilers in off-grid areas. In total, 91% of the country’s electricity is produced by the Central Energy System and 96% of the electricity demand of the country is met by the CES.

Figure 3. Map of Mongolia power systems



Source: Energy Regulatory Authority of Mongolia
The Electricity and heat is supplied by five combined heat and power (CHP) plants. The limited installed capacity of these existing power plants results in an ongoing and increasing energy deficit which is currently being offset by costly and unreliable electricity imports from Russia.

Figure 4. Electricity supply breakdown and demand


Source: Energy Regulatory Authority of Mongolia, Eurasia Capital-INFRASTRUCTURE IN MONGOLIA April 2009

Coal fired power plants- Critical to Mongolia energy system

As the primary source of energy for Mongolia, the coal industry is critical to the operation of Mongolia’s energy system. According to the Ministry of Mineral Resource and Energy of Mongolia, Mongolia’s electricity-generation capacity is comprised of 7 thermal power plants, 13 hydroelectric power plants, several hundred diesel generators, 20 wind power plants and 1 solar power plant. Of these sources, the overwhelming supply of electricity comes from coal-fired plants, which generate approximately 80% of the country’s power.

Figure 5. Electricity generated by source in Mongolia


Source: Mongolia national renewable energy program

There are five major thermal power plants (TPP) in the Central Energy System (CES). The current installed power capacity for coal fired power plants in Mongolia is 814 MW, but only 646 MW is available because of aging power plants, with most being over 30 years old. Because of age and deterioration, the TPP #2 is expected to retire in 2012 and the TPP #3 is expected to retire in 2016. Because Mongolia’s capital, Ulaanbaatar, relies so heavily on these plants and lacks any replacement power source, they have to be kept in operation well past their lifespan.

Figure 6. Current coal fired power plants in CES



Source: Energy Regulatory Authority (2007), Eurasia Capital.

The aging of the existing power plant infrastructure results in energy inefficiency and electricity loss due to 1) lower actual available power capacity and load factors and 2) Higher self-electricity consumption in power plants. The Mongolian government acknowledges this as a major issue and aims to reduce the whole system loss of the CES but the electricity loss remains a significant area of concern that will need to be addressed.

Figure 7. Total system electricity loss in CES


Source: Energy Regulatory Authority of Mongolia-2010 annual report

Due to government regulated low electricity and heat tariffs, energy producers and thermal coal suppliers were historically unable to operate profitably. Companies operated with support by international loans and grants, and state budget subsidies. In late 2010, the parliament of Mongolia approved step by step liberalization of energy tariffs. The sector is planned to operate based on market principals beginning in 2014. Electricity tariffs are expected to increased to ease the operating pressure of power suppliers due to: 1) the increase of retail tariffs lagging behind the CPI and 2) wholesale tariffs increasing to maintain service level 3) licensees facing cost pressure from increasing input prices.

Figure 8: Retail Tariff Vs. CPI


Source: ERA annual report 2009, 2010 and Website, World bank-Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update Aug 2011

Potential sources of power

1. Renewable energy- challenge for the ambitious plan

Currently, renewable energy (hydro, solar and wind) only represents about 4% of Mongolia’s total electricity generating capacity. In the most remote areas, because of low demand and lack of other energy sources, use of renewable energies is viable. The Mongolian government passed the Renewable Energy Program in 2005, mandating that green energy sources account for 20-25 percent of Mongolia’s needs by 2020. Solar photovoltaic and wind power have potential in Mongolia, given the country’s vast steppes and ample wind.

Figure 9: Mongolia renewable energy program forecast



Source: Energy Authority of Mongolia
Modern solar cells are lightweight and portable enough to mesh well with a lifestyle involving frequent travel. Because of that, in Mongolia, solar energy use has mainly focused on decentralized individual solar home electricity systems, which but would also be suitable for larger scale solar energy applications.
In terms of wind power, one Mongolian company, Newcom Group, will start construction of the first sizeable wind power plant in Mongolia, with an installed capacity of 50MW.

Figure 10: Renewable power plant in remote area during 2006-2008



Source: Energy authority of Mongolia

While a laudable goal, the practical reality of implementing such an ambitious renewable energy plan, particularly for wind power plants, is rife with significant obstacles. According to the Energy Authority of Mongolia, real-world problems include: 1) frequent performance problems; 2) a shortage of the government financing needed to acquire high quality small wind turbines; 3) contract-awarded inexperienced national companies had financial loss due to repetitive repair.

2. Diesel generators – unstable diesel supply and high cost

Diesel generators are popular in remote areas with no connection to the grid. In the South Gobi region, the Tavan Tolgoi mine is building a 20MW diesel power plant as a temporary electricity solution. Two major problems need to be solved for diesel power plants to be viable long-term:

1) The unstable supply of diesel.

Mongolia sources over 90 percent of its fuel from Russia. These imports are unstable as Russia may suddenly curtail it fuel exports as it has done in the past. This has the corollary effect of driving up domestic prices.
2) The high operating cost for using diesel to generate power.

Because Mongolia is forced to import diesel to offset its domestic energy needs, the selling in that country is higher than China, Kazakhstan and Russia. This also places Mongolia in a vulnerable position with respect to import tariffs. In May 2011, Mongolia experienced a severe fuel crisis as Russia raised duties on fuel exports by over 40 percent. Such actions particularly affect mining, agriculture and construction because these sectors have only a short operational season before the onset of winter.

Figure 11. Prices of gasoline and diesel in June 2011



Source: Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update-2011 Aug

3. New coal-fired power plant – the ideal for powering Mongolia’s future.

Although alternative energy sources will continue to be developed, until technology and efficiency dramatically improve, the solution to Mongolia’s energy crisis lies in coal. The country has total coal reserves estimated at 150 billion metric tons, and three major coal fired power plants are planned to be built in order to meet the growing demand.

Standing out among these projects is Prophecy Coal Corp’s 600 mega-watt Changdana thermal coal power plant. The first sizeable new power plant in Mongolia in decades, the Chandgana project is fully-licensed and endorsed by the government. Construction is expected to commence in the second quarter of 2013, with power on anticipated for Q4 of 2015. The Prophecy project is in the advanced stages as compared to the other proposed projects, with the company looking to finalize a power purchase agreement with the Mongolian government in the coming months.

Figure 12. Major Coal fired Power Plants in progress



Source: The world bank-Mongloa: Power Sector Development and South Gobi Development, Prophecy Coal Corp company presentation

Conclusion

The leaders and people of that Mongolia have long-recognized its potential as a modern, booming economy and international firms continue to embrace it as evidenced by massive and increasing foreign investment. With this expansion, Mongolia’s critical energy shortages are expected to become more and more pronounced as new draws strain the existing supply and further increase reliance on costly and unstable imports. To sustain its impressive development, it is vital that the Mongolian government address the energy situation by utilizing their abundant coal resources and that they do so in the most efficient, modern and clean facilities technology has developed.

[speedlimiter]

Zitat von hagadi: Worum geht es doch noch gleich hier im thread?
Ach, ja...Baubeginn eines KKW im Juni 2013

http://www.asiaminer.com/magazine/current-news/5040-mongolia…

MONGOLIA - Prophecy progress on Chandgana power plant

Prophecy Coal has achieved good progress on the preliminary mobilization, design and engineering schedule at its Chandgana Power Plant in central Mongolia.

During the next quarter, the company’s Mongolian subsidiary Prophecy Power Generation LLC (PPG) will focus on securing contractors to facilitate the start of mobilization work at the site, design work for the temporary electricity supply, fencing of the site and construction of the power plant as well as offices and accommodation and a drinking water supply for staff.

Prophecy is continuing ongoing discussions with the Ministry of Energy of Mongolia, its various working groups and the Energy Regulatory Commission on the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and the Tariff Application.

Despite all parties indicating a willingness and desire to conclude the PPA and Tariff Application, Prophecy says it is a time-consuming process, as it is a major power offtake agreement with an independent power supplier for the Mongolian energy sector.

All major permits required for construction of the power plant have been received and required studies have been completed, including land use rights, geotechnical study, environmental impact assessment study, raw water supply feasibility study and seismic study.

The Chandgana project has attracted several major independent power plant enterprises assessing a potential investment, with one interested party establishing an office in Mongolia in order to collaborate with Prophecy on the project’s technical and commercial aspects. Joint development discussions on the Power Project are actively ongoing with a number of IPP enterprises.

Prophecy has discussed direct power purchase contracts with potential customers in the mining industry who need substantial electricity in the South Gobi region.

The 600MW Chandgana mine-mouth thermal power plant will be built adjacent to the company’s Chandgana coal deposit in central Mongolia’s Khentii province. The power plant will be the largest facility of its type in the country.

Prophecy has received a loan from a major international bank to fund 85% of the development and construction of the plant. The loan is subject to approval from relevant authorities in Mongolia and China as well as the completion of due diligence on the project.

Prophecy’s chairman John Lee says the company will continue talks with relevant authorities to remain on schedule for the proposed construction start date by June with a signed PPA.

Meantime, Prophecy has closed the first tranche of a non-brokered private placement announced in February, raising $613,560. The placement of up to 60 million shares aims to raise proceeds of $8.4 million for the company to put towards development of the power plant. NewMargin Prophecy Coal is subscribing for 40 million shares.


Prophecy Chairman John Lee sagt das Unternehmen führt Gespräche mit den zuständigen Behörden weiter um im Zeitplan für den geplanten Baubeginn im Juni mit einer unterzeichneten PPA zu bleiben.

Bald erfolgt der erste Spatenstich,
der den Mongolen den dringend benötigten Strom und den Investierten jahrzehntelange Rendite beschert.

richtig getroffen

[fraxinus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.593.491 von Pieselwitz am 08.05.13 17:38:15

Du meintest wahrscheinlich, dass die "ehrlichen" Mining/Explorer von den staatlichen Stellen gegeneinander ausgespielt und verarscht werden. Das ist ein sehr wahrscheinliches Szenario. Die Schmiergelder die da fliessen, werden nicht unerheblich sein.

[fraxinus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.593.491 von Pieselwitz am 08.05.13 17:38:15

"Es wäre auch nicht auszuschließen, die enormen zeitlichen Verzögerungen sprechen dafür, dass die mongolische Regierung das Projekt Chandgana, dass ja privat ist, gar nicht entstehen lassen möchte "

Ja, eine Verquickung von Mining/Explorern mit staatlichen Stellen.
Eine Win-Win-Situation.
Eine Abzocke und Anschmierei von vorne bis hinten, auf Kosten von Anlegern.

[Pieselwitz]

Es wäre auch nicht auszuschließen, die enormen zeitlichen Verzögerungen sprechen dafür, dass die mongolische Regierung das Projekt Chandgana, dass ja privat ist, gar nicht entstehen lassen möchte um eigene staatliche Projekte zu fördern, um sich somit nicht abhängig zu machen von ausländischen Investoren.

Sollte dies der Fall sein, was ich für sehr wahrscheinlich halte, sehen wir hier ganz schnell eine Insolvenz.

LG Pieselwitz

[fraxinus]

Zitat von Pieselwitz: Es gibt hier viele Szenarien. Deshalb schließe ich auch eine sehr wahrscheinliche Insolvenz nicht mehr aus.
LG Pieselwitz

Nicht unwahrscheinlich für den gesamten Explorer Bereich.
Wenn die Lemminge ihren Müll nicht für kleines Geld rausschütteln lassen,
dann geht man eben Konkurs. Dann firmiert das mongolische Schlammloch oder die Goldmine in Timbuktu unter neuem Namen und die nächste Runde kann beginnen. Die Assets sind nur die Kulisse in einem ewigen Abzock-Theater, Produktion wird gar nicht ernsthaft angestrebt.

[Pieselwitz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 44.593.333 von fraxinus am 08.05.13 17:19:47

Es gibt hier viele Szenarien. Deshalb schließe ich auch eine sehr wahrscheinliche Insolvenz nicht mehr aus.

LG Pieselwitz