Bewertungsthread Thompson Creek Metals (alte Blue Pearl Mining) - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 2)

[The_Newbie]

Sorry! der Artikel wurde schon von Firsteven geposted

[beautifulmind]

Energy Guru Eric Sprott Wants More Molybdenum
Wednesday March 7, 6:57 am ET


James Finch submits: Canada’s legendary natural resource investor, Eric Sprott, has got moly fever! His eponymous management firm is now preparing a molybdenum participation fund, which will buy and sell physical molybdenum. The Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp will also invest in companies that explore for, mine and process the metal.
Sound familiar? Uranium Participation Corp debuted in late 2005, accumulating physical uranium for as low as US$20/pound range. Shares in the uranium fund nearly doubled in 2006 in tandem with the spot uranium price.

We interviewed Eric Sprott in October 2004, when he forecast the steep rise in uranium and offered his selection. As usual Sprott Asset Management had entered the uranium market through large, very speculative investments in complete unknowns. Since then, those unfamiliar penny stocks have begun boasting market capitalizations well above $1 billion. Examples include SXR Uranium One, which recently announced a $5 billion merger with UrAsia, and Paladin Resources, which once traded at for three cents, and is now capitalized around C$3 billion.

We followed many ‘Sprott stocks,’ some trading sub-$1/share in 2004, and which have recently traded above $12/share – such as Energy Metals (NYSEArca: EMU). At one point, the Sprott family of funds held more than 20 percent of the shares in uranium companies such as Energy Metals and Strathmore Minerals. In late February, Jim Cramer recommended Energy Metals on his ‘Mad Money’ television show.

Last summer’s big question in Canada’s financial circles and in the media was: ‘What will be Eric Sprott’s next big thing?’ We concluded it would be molybdenum stocks and reported on that in late July. We interviewed Sprott Asset Management research associate Maria Smirnova and discussed how investing in molybdenum stocks might be another way to ride the energy bull. Because investors had little idea how to pronounce the metal’s name properly, let alone understand what the fuss was about, we set up an educational page to find out more about molybdenum.

While nickel, zinc and uranium prices have soared, molybdenum lagged behind in 2006. After a stellar 2005, during which moly prices jumped to a record $40, increased byproduct mining from copper producers brought the moly price back into the twenties.

But that may not last long. Changes in China’s export laws may help the molybdenum price firm up, according to Ken Reser, one of the early molybdenum mining commentators. In our email exchanges, Reser strongly believes the molybdenum price could go much higher. He’s backed Adanac Molybdenum Corp, a company which hopes to bring its large Ruby Creek deposit into production in 2009.

Early Sprott favorite, Blue Pearl Mining , has since become the world’s fifth largest primary molybdenum producer and is the world’s largest publicly traded primary molybdenum company. The key word is “since.” After Eric Sprott began backing the company, Blue Pearl announced the acquisition of privately held Thompson Creek Metals Company for US$575 million. The acquisition brought the then-tiny company into the molybdenum mining spotlight. During 2007, the company plans to produce about 21 million pounds of molybdenum (gross value at Friday’s closing price: US$593 million). That’s about five percent of global molybdenum mining production!

Another Sprott favorite, Roca Mines hopes to commence molybdenum mining operations this spring as a small-scale producer in British Columbia. The company hopes to expand its molybdenum deposit by pouring in some of the cash flow from its mining production during the first year in hopes of building a much bigger moly mine.

Judging from Eric Sprott’s keen investment eye, the molybdenum price may soon be rising again. And, of course, so will the moly stocks his fund invests in. (We have no relationship with Sprott Asset Management.)

Disclosure: Author has no position in any of the above-mentioned securities.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
World's Top 12 Molybdenum Miners Ranked by 2006 Production

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a table of the world's largest miners of molybdenum ranked by 2005 and 2006 output, compiled by London-based metals consulting company CRU. The silvery metal, often a byproduct of copper, is used in stainless- steel production. Figures are in millions of pounds.



Ranking 2005 2006
1. Phelps Dodge Corp. 62.3 68.3
2. Codelco 76.0 62.1
3. Kennecott Utah Copper Corp 34.6 37.0
(Rio Tinto Group)
4. Jinduicheng Molybdenum
Mining* 27.0 28.0
5. Thompson Creek Metals Co.** 28.9 27.7
6. Grupo Mexico SA 32.7 26.0
7. Antofagasta Plc 19.2 21.6
8. Luoyang Luanchuan
Molybdenum Group Co. 11.0 12.0
9. Xstrata Plc 5.7 9.0
10. Teck Cominco Ltd. 9.6 7.9
11. Anglo American Plc 4.4 6.9
12. BHP Billiton Ltd. 5.0 5.8
*Estimates ** Acquired by Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. in 2006

-- Editor: Wallace

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 9, 2007 05:11 EST

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

heute komme ich endlich einmal dazu die Informationsflut der letzten Woche aufzubereiten.

RSR hat am Mittwoch einen interessanten Bericht über Eric Sprott und BluePearl in ihrer Ausgabe gehabt. Da ich keinerlei Hinweise darauf im Bewertungsthread gefunden habe, stelle ich hier die für mich wichtigsten Aussagen ein.

Parallel dazu versuche ich hierzu gezielt bei BluePearl (Wayne Cheveldayoff) nachzufragen. Die Antworten dazu werde ich dann nächste Woche einstellen.

Aber nun zuerst die Auszüge aus der Info:

Doch am Montag beim Frühstück mussten
wir feststellen, dass es wohl doch nur EINE Blaue Perle gibt. Denn wie der kanadischen Tageszeitung
„Globe and Mail“ zu entnehmen war, startet „Resource Guru“ Eric Sprott die „Sprott Molybdenum Participation
Corp.“, eine Art Beteiligungsgesellschaft, die sowohl in das silbrig-weiße Metall als auch in Aktien
von Moly-Explorern und -produzenten investiert. Nicht weniger als 75 Millionen CAD werden aufgelegt
und an der Toronto Stock Exchange gelistet. Nun mag der eine oder andere denken und fragen, „ja und,
was soll daran das Besondere sein?“ Die Antwort ist einfach: Zum einen hat Sprott in der Vergangenheit
bereits des Öfteren ein perfektes Timing bewiesen. So hat er im Jahr 2005 als Erster einen Uran-Fonds aufgelegt,
der in den Rohstoff direkt investiert. Das Volumen dieses Uran-Beteiligungsvehikels hat inzwischen
fast 700 Mio. CAD erreicht.

Aber wichtiger: Sprott stellt sich damit ganz klar gegen die Hauptmeinung vieler Analysten, die einen
auf 10 USD zurückfallenden Preis für Molybdän in den nächsten Jahren prophezeien.

Man nimmt also in der Masse der Analysten bisher an, dass der Molypreis von aktuell 26 USD auf 10
USD bis 2010 zurückfällt und sich um dieses Niveau einpendelt. Alle Analysten bewerten Blue Pearl
Mining genau unter diesen angenommenen Voraussetzungen.
Niemand erwägt auch nur die Möglichkeit, dass der Preis über 20 USD (aktuell bei 26 USD!) bleibt
oder gar weitaus höher steigt!
Eric Sprott jedoch sagt als Erster ganz klar, dass dieses Moly-Preisniveau uns die nächsten Jahre begleiten
wird oder der Preis gar weiter steigen wird. Diese Meinung vertrat übrigens auch Blue Pearl - Macher Ian
McDonald, als wir ihn im Laufe der Woche trafen. Er meinte, die Angebots-/Nachfragesituation am Molybdänmarkt
werde sich selbst bei einem Abschwächen der Weltwirtschaft nicht einfach in Luft auflösen.Derzeit würden Abnehmer Angebote machen, die bis zu 3 USD über dem Marktpreis liegen.
Einiges hat Blue Pearl auch zu diesen - über dem Weltmarkt liegenden! - Preisen in den letzten Monaten
auch verkauft!Um auf den geplanten Molyfonds von Sprott Assett Management zurückzukommen: Raten Sie mal,
wer als Berater dieses Fonds fungiert und für die An– und Verkaufsentscheidungen für den physischen
Anlageteil zuständig ist? Die Antwort: Blue Pearl Mining!

Fazit: Wenn dies alles geschieht, sind die Analysten gefragt! Sprott sieht für Blue Pearl unter diesen
Voraussetzungen (Verdopplung der Reserven und Minenlaufzeiten, Moly über 20 USD und Aufwärtspotenzial)
ein Kursziel von 28 CAD. Wir meinen: der Mann kann gut rechnen. Wir schließen uns dieser
Meinung an! Für uns übrigens ein Wunder, dass Blue Pearl mit der aktuellen Börsenbewertung
überhaupt noch existiert und nicht längst gekauft wurde.

Nun meine Gedankengänge zu diesem Bericht.

1. BluePearl hat hiermit den Ritterschlag erhalten. Wenn Eric Sprott einen Fond mit 75 Mio. CAD plant, dann wird er mit Sicherheit mindestens mit dem doppelten Wert beginnen und danach stark wachsen. Das ist bei erfolgreichen Fondsmanagern immer so.
2. Der Vergleich mit Uran drängt sich jetzt regelrecht auf. Auch dort war Eric Sprott der erste Investor. Dort wurde er noch von den Experten belächelt. Ich glaube bei Molybdän wird sich das keiner mehr trauen. Die Experten lernen staunend hinzu.
3. BluePearl führt die An- und Verkaufsgeschäfte durch. Hier wird doch nicht gerade der 8 Mio. Warehousebestand zu großen Teilen zu Geld gemacht? Der Kredit wird mit Sicherheit schneller als erwartet zurückgezahlt sein.
4. Eric Sprott wird als erster Fond auch physisches Moly besitzen. Hier werden zum Start zusätzliche Mengen aus dem Markt genommen. Man will ja dann bei gestiegenen Preisen verkaufen.
5. Es werden mit Sicherheit ähnliche Fonds in Australien, China usw. folgen. Heißt: Es werden weitere Mengen aus dem ohnehin knappen Markt genommen und bei gestiegenen Preisen wieder mit Bedacht in den Markt gebracht.
6. Es gibt in den ersten Jahren in diesem neuen Geschäftsfeld noch keine spekulativen Shortattacken.

Fazit: Der Preis kann in den nächsten Jahren eigentlich nur steigen. Die Fonds werden das Angebot von dem ohnehin schon knappen Gut weiter reduzieren und erst bei deutlich gestiegenen Preisen Teile wieder verkaufen. BluePearl sitz in dem neuen Geschäftsfeld an der Quelle und kann eigene Produktionsspitzen immer in den Fond einbringen. Die Fonds werden den Preis über viele Jahre oberhalb von 25$ halten. Wahrscheinlich gibt es sogar in 2007 und 2008 neue ATH. Die Analysten sind gezwungen die neuen Preiserwartungen in ihre Bewertung einzuarbeiten. Dies wird im Laufe dieses und des nächsten Jahres geschehen.

Was dies Alles für BluePearl heißt, kann sich jeder selber ausrechnen.

In einem relativ fair bewerteten Aktienmarkt kann man auf Dauer nur noch mit unterbewerteten Aktien erfolgreich sein. Man muss diese Aktien erkennen und dann etwas Geduld mitbringen. Dafür wird man dann aber reichlich belohnt werden.

Der Satz von Ian McDonald: Wir werden versuchen 2006 in 2007 zu toppen, nimmt so langsam Konturen an.

Dies ist wie immer keine Kaufempfehlung und sachlich kritische Stellungnahmen sind natürlich erwünscht.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Nach dem Kursverlauf gestern, so denke ich, dass erstmal die Shorter wieder dran sind.
Wir habe gestern in CAN auf TT geschlossen ! Bevor die Machbarkeitsstudie kommt ( nächste Woche? ) dürften wir erstmal wieder bis auf 5,5-5,2 konsolidieren.

Was denkt Ihr?

------------------------------------

Hallo Kuschel,

im Chart von Toronto war ein Widerstand vorhanden im Bereich von 9,57 CAD. Dieser deckt sich auch mit der 61,8%-Fibonacci-Extension. Durch die Kerzenformation der letzten beiden Tage (Engulfing Pattern (der Körper der grünen Kerze ganz oben im Aufwärtstrend wird von Körper der nachfolgenden roten Kerze vollkommen umschlossen)) hat sich dieser Widerstand verstärkt und es wurde ein bearisches Signal gegeben.
Nach dem kräftigen Anstieg um fast 18% innerhalb von nur 3 Tagen ist eine technische Gegenbewegung vollkommen normal, zumal auch noch die restlichen Warrants (bzw. die Aktien daraus), welche zum 22.März auslaufen, den Kurs belasten.

Es ist also gut zu verstehen, dass du dir Gedanken machst, wie der Kurs kurzfristig weiter laufen könnte.
Dabei stellst du Kursziele von -10,6% bis -15,5% (ich habe deine Euro-Angaben in CAD umgerechnet und in Relation gestellt zu den Werten der kursbestimmenden kanadischen Börse) in den Raum.
Sind dies blanke Vermutungen, oder gibt es einen nachvollziehbaren Grund, warum du diese kurzfristigen Kursziele erwartest? Vielleicht könntest du dazu kurz Stellung nehmen.

Neben den o.g. Gründen für einen kurzfristigen Kursrückgang gibt es verschiedene Gründe die für einen Kursanstieg sprechen:

Um eine faire Bewertung der Aktie zu erreichen, sind sowohl unter KGV-Gesichtspunkten als auch in Bezug auf die vorhandenen Rohstoffe dramatische Kurssteigerungen nötig.
Es sind mit Stand 28.Februar über 3,55 Mio Aktien leerverkauft, die über kurz oder lang gedeckt werden müssen und den Kurs nach oben treiben könnten (ich glaube nicht, dass ein wesentlicher Teil davon bereits glatt gestellt ist).
Für 22. März steht die Veröffentlichung des Jahresabschlusses für 2006 an, der erstmals die Gewinne aus der Thompson-Creek-Übernahme (für die letzten beiden Monate des Jahres) enthält.
Nach der News vom 16. Januar soll noch im März die neue (drastisch erhöhte) Rohstoffmenge für Davidson veröffentlicht werden. Gerüchte halten den 14. März für den Tag der Veröffentlichung.

In den nächsten Tagen wird es sich zeigen, ob der Markt die gestrige Korrektur um 3,79% für ausreichend hält, ob es also direkt wieder aufwärts geht, oder erst noch weiter nach unten.

Meine ganz persönliche Meinung: Einen weiteren kleinen Rückgang könnte ich mir gut vorstellen. Die von dir angesprochenen kurzfristigen Kursziele erscheinen mir aber nicht plausibel.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Analysten von Citigroup gehen in einer neuen Schätzung von erneuten Anstiegen der vertraglichen Eisenerzpreise auf dem Weltmarkt aus. Die Preise sollen um 7% steigen. Zuvor waren die Analysten von Preisrückgängen ausgegangen. Grund für die Änderung der Prognose sei eine anhaltend hohe chinesische Nachfrage nach dem Stahlrohstoff. Der Import des Riesenreiches soll im Jahr 2007 um 4,3% wachsen, im Jahr darauf sei gar ein Zuwachs um 7,4% zu erwarten.

[Firsteven]

Zitat:Gestern hab ich mich zum wiederholten male über den Kursverlauf der letzten 6 Monate geärgert.
Daraufhin wurden Charts eingestellt die eine 50% Kurssteigerung zeigten (Linienchart), wenn man sich jedoch Candlestick ansieht wird einem schlagartig klar, dass die Perf. doch nicht sooo gut war. (06.09. intraday €5,59, 09.03. 12:44 €5,79)
Was ich damit zum Ausdruck bringen will, ist, dass man genauso eine Aktie gut, blauäugig und realitätsfremd Hochreden (pushen)
kann wie auch runterreden. Und man dadurch nicht einen Grad besser ist als die ganzen Basher auf der anderen Seite

-------------------------------------------------

Hallo Charly,

dass auch ich mit dem Kursverlauf der letzten Monate nicht zufrieden bin, habe ich schon zum Ausdruck gebracht.
Ich ärgere mich aber nicht über der Kursverlauf, sondern allenfalls über die hirnlosen Verkäufer und Kurzzeit-Trader die Aktien weit unter Wert verschenken. Über die Unwissenden und Zittrigen, die bei dem geringsten Kursrückgang, und sei es auch nur um 5ct, sofort den Sell-Knopf drücken.
Diese Mentalität, nicht über den Tellerrand der nächsten halben Stunde hinaus zu blicken, ist aber leider zur Realität geworden an der Börse (nicht nur bei Blue Pearl). Damit werden wir leben müssen.

Nach meinem Research ist die Blue-Pearl-Aktie extrem unterbewertet. Auf Zeit gesehen erkennt der Markt solche Unterbewertungen und gleicht sie aus. Die Frage ist eben immer, wie lange das dauert. So ein Zeitraum kann mehrere Jahre betragen, kann sich aber auch im Bereich von nur wenigen Wochen bewegen.

Aufgrund der publikumswirksamen Vorgänge um die Thompson-Creek-Übernahme hatte ich eigentlich ursprünglich mit einem Zeitraum von nur wenigen Monaten gerechnet, um zumindest die Hälfte der Unterbewertung auszugleichen. Offensichtlich lag ich mit meinen Erwartungen falsch.

Es gab aber eine zweite, ebenfalls sehr wichtige Erwartung, die mich zur Investition in Blue Pearl bewogen hat. Die Erwartung, dass ich mit dieser Investition aufgrund der eklatanten Unterbewertung gegen Kursrutsche ins Bodenlose (wie bei Explorern durchaus üblich) sehr gut abgesichert bin. Diese Erwartung hat sich voll erfüllt.

Zu Beginn meiner Investition habe ich mit einem Rückschlagrisiko von 25% kalkuliert, und mit einer Kurssteigerungschance von 1000% bis 3000% (auf Sicht von 2-3 Jahren).
Nunmehr, etwa 7 Monate später und nach einer Performance von über 200% des ersten Kaufes (aufgrund mehrerer Nachkäufe ist die Gesamtperformance niedriger), sehe ich (ab heute) nach wie vor ein Rückschlagrisiko von 25%, und immerhin noch eine Kurssteigerungschance von 400% bis 800% für meine Aktien, ebenfalls wieder auf Sicht von 2-3 Jahren (bei den gehebelten Derivaten sind die Zahlen größer).
Dieses sehr gute Verhältnis von Chance zu Risiko ist für mich der Grund, weiter an diesem Investment festzuhalten (mit einem beträchtlichen Anteil meines Depots).

Würde ich in hochspeklative Explorer investieren, so könnte ich auf Sicht von 2-3 Jahren möglicherweise durchaus mehr als dies erwarteten 400% bis 800% erzielen. Aber dies würde auch bedeuten, dass sich meine Risiko ganz dramatisch erhöht.

Dass wir uns recht verstehen: Die eben genannten Zahlen sind meine ganz persönliche Erwartung. Ich will diese Erwartung niemandem aufdrängen. Und ich bin auch niemandem böse, der selbst wesentlich niedrigere Erwartungen hat. Es sollte einfach jeder selbst seine Kursziel-Rechnung aufmachen, so konservativ, oder so progressiv wie es seiner persönlichen Einstellung entspricht. Und danach sollte er dann handeln.
Wenn dann einer zu der Auffassung kommt, dass er diese Aktie nicht weiter halten will, dann soll er verkaufen. Jeder ist für sein Investment selbst verantwortlich.
Was ich nicht gutheißen kann, das sind aber Tiraden a la "Ich habe alles verkauft, und wenn ihr nicht ins Verderben rennen wollt, dann tut ihr jetzt sofort das Gleiche"

Womit ich auch ganz passend übergeleitet habe zu deinem nächsten Punkt, dem bashen oder dem "blauäugigen und realitätsfernen Hochreden (pushen)" einer Aktie.

Wieder meine ganz persönliche Ansicht: Ich kann in diesem Thread nicht erkennen, dass der gegenwärtige Kurs der Blue-Pearl-Aktie blauäugig oder realitätsfern hochgeredet wird. Es wird vielmehr mit sehr konservativen Kurszielen (UBS- und GMP-Analyse) argumentiert, allenfalls noch Sprott, und anhand dieser Kursziele dargelegt, dass die Aktie derzeit zu niedrig bewertet ist, also steigen müsste, um fair bewertet zu werden.
Und diese, in meinen Augen realistischen Kursziele werden, soweit Diskussionsbedarf besteht, auch durch Fakten und Beispielrechnungen belegt.
Dass jemand, der positiv gegenüber der Aktie eingestellt ist, dies positive Einstellung auch in seinen Äußerungen zum Ausdruck bringt, das kann man wohl nicht als pushen bezeichnen. Pushen wäre es, eine Luftnummer ohne Fakten in den (Kurs)Himmel zu heben.

Von Seiten der Basher hingegen werden erst einmal grundsätzlich alle positiven Fundamentaldaten in Zweifel gezogen und ein katastrophaler Absturz an die Wand gemalt. Es wird aber in keiner Weise Material geliefert, um diesen Zweifel an den Fundamentaldaten zu begründen. Als Begründung für den Zweifel an den Daten soll es wohl ausreichen, dass der Basher selbst zweifelt.

Insofern kann ich dein Argument "Und man dadurch nicht einen Grad besser ist als die ganzen Basher auf der anderen Seite" nicht nachvollziehen.

Wie gesagt, wenn du der Ansicht bist, dass du woanders schneller "permanente und nachhaltige Kurssteigerungen" erzielen kannst, dann verkaufe deinen BPM-Bestand und investiere dort. Schätze Risiko und Chance ab und handle danach. Dafür musst du dich hier im Forum nicht verantworten und dafür ist dir auch niemand böse. Für diesen Fall wünsche ich dir dort viel Erfolg.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[chartex]

Meine Meinung zu einigen Punkten der Diskussion:

Blue Pearl erzeugt besonders hochwertiges Moly. Das hat jetzt aber nichts zu tun mit den Molykonzentrationen bei Davidson, sondern es ist darin begründet, dass "reines" Moly gefördert wird (sowohl in der Thompson-Creek-Mine als auch in der Endako-Mine (und ggf. zukünftig in der Davidson-Mine)).
Dort, wo Moly als "Abfallprodukt" aus der Kupferproduktion entsteht, ist das Moly immer mit Kupfer verunreinigt. Für bestimmte Anwendungsgebiete (z.B. Katalysatoren) ist dieses Moly aufgrund der Verunreinigungen nicht geeignet (2/3 der weltweiten Molyproduktion stammt als Beiprodukt aus Kupferminen).
Für dieses hochwertige Moly kann Blue Pearl (dort, wo der Anwender auf dieses hochwertige Moly angewiesen ist) auch Preise erzielen, die einige Prozent höher liegen als der normale Marktpreis (Aussage von McDonald anlässlich der Präsentation vom Nov. 2006).

Eine Open-Pit-Mine kann mit einem Molygehalt im Erz von 0,1% im allgemeinen auch unter widrigen Umständen rentabel betrieben werden. Es gibt jedoch nicht so viele Minen, die eine derart gute Konzentration aufweisen. Dort wo ein genügend großer Erzkörper vorhanden ist und die Kostenstruktur günstig ist, kann auch mit Gehalten um 0,06% noch sehr guter Gewinn erzielt werden.
So hat die Thompson-Creek-Mine z.B. bei den derzeit noch aktuellen Reserven einen Gehalt von etwa 0,12%. Endako liegt bei etwa 0,06%. Der Vergleich mit diesen Zahlen zeigt die absolute Ausnahmestellung von Davidson. Dort soll in den ersten Jahren Erz mit einem durchschnittlichen Gehalt von 0,55% abgebaut werden, also eine fast 10-fach höhere Konzentration.
In verschiedenen Bohrberichten (z.B. 3.2.2006 - 28.2.2006 - 12.4.2006 - 15.6.2006) sind Weltklasse-Konzentrationen (z.B. 48.8m mit 0,46% - 27,4m mit 0,55% - 12,2m mit 0,797% - 6,1m mit 1,09%) nachgewiesen.
Aufgrund dieser hohen Konzentration sollen trotz bergmänischem Abbau Produktionskosten erzielt werden, die niedriger liegen, als bei diversen Open-Pit-Minen anderer Unternehmen.
Diese letzten Aussagen stammen von Ian McDonald anlässlich verschiedener Präsentation und müssen durch die Resourcenschätzung in den nächsten Wochen sowie die Feasibility-Studie noch offiziell bestätigt werden.

Zum Thema Moly-Fond von Sprott:
Einen Moly-Fond zu gründen und zu betreiben kann eigentlich kein Problem darstellen aus kartellrechtlicher Sicht (Sprott hat in diesem Bereich sicher keine marktbeherrschende Stellung). So wie ich die News verstanden habe, wird Blue Pearl diesen Fond auch nicht managen sondern beraten. Dies erscheint mir als eine sinnvolle Lösung, da das Team um McDonald wohl kaum Erfahrung als Fondmanger mitbringen dürfte (da sind die Sprott-Leute sicher besser). Die Erfahrung der BPM-Leute im Bereich Minen und Moly hingegen, dürfte durch fachkundige Beratung für den Fond ein sehr positiver Punkt sein.
Der Ankauf und Verkauf von Moly für den Fond soll durch Blue Pearl erfolgen. In diesem Bereich ist BPM ja bereits sehr stark tätig und kann mit Hilfe dieser zusätzlichen Kundenaufträge seine Marktmacht noch etwas weiter ausbauen (BPM hat derzeit einen Anteil von 9% am weltweiten Molyhandel). Der An- und Verkauf von Moly im Kundenauftrag hat aber mit Preisabsprachen nichts zu tun.

Nach meinem Dafürhalten dürfte es derzeit weltweit keine nennenswerte Vorratshaltung im Bereich Moly geben. Selbst Blue Pearl hat nach den neuesten Auskünften (kein offizielles Statement) in den letzten 4 Monaten den Lagerbestand, welcher bei der Übernahme vorhanden war, weitgehend abgebaut (zu Preisen deutlich über dem Marktpreis).
Diese nicht vorhandenen Vorräte kann man aus etlichen Berichten der letzten Wochen schließen, die von großen Schwierigkeiten zeugen, kurzfristig Moly einkaufen zu können.
Soweit der Fond also physische Bestände an Moly aufbauen möchte, kann das nur geschehen, indem Moly, das bisher den (fast) direkten Weg vom Produzenten zum Verbraucher fand, abgezweigt (aufgekauft) und eingelagert wird. Anders ausgedrückt, bei gleichbleibendem Angebot wird zusätzliche Nachfrage erzeugt und tendenziell der Preis nach oben getrieben.

Den Vorteil für uns Aktionäre aus diesem Fond sehe ich in 3 Punkten:
Mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit wird der Fond auch in Blue-Pearl investieren (Kurssteigerung).
Durch Ankauf von Moly wird der Molypreis nach oben getrieben (Hebeleffekt auf den Gewinn von Blue Pearl, und damit tendenziell auf den Aktienkurs).
Zusätzliche Einnahmen für Blue Pearl durch Abwicklung der Moly-Käufe/Verkäufe im Auftrag des Fond)(im Vergleich zum Gesamtgewinn aber eher unbedeutend).
Möglicherweise gibt es weitere Einnahmen aus der Beratungstätigkeit für den Fond. Auf alle Fälle aber ist es ein Imagegewinn für BPM.

chartex

[chartex]

Kopie meines Postings aus dem Hauptthread:

Zitat:die 8 mio pfund moly auf lager sind schon verkauft?

wie sicher ist die quelle? das wären ja einnahmen von 200 mio $, und das in den letzten 4 monaten!
--------------------------

Wie ich bereits in meinem vorstehenden Posting geschrieben habe, ist das kein offizielles Statement von BPM.

Den ersten Teil habe ich aus dem Stockhouse-Board (dsandds am 5.3.2007):

Zitat:I was at the PDAC, for both BLE at 3pm and the Moly market presentation at 5:45pm - very good presentations. Their marketing guy mentioned that there is no excess Mo supply anymore - I asked him about the millions of lbs of inventory that Hodson mentioned BLE had a while back on ROBTV - he had to look over to the CEO for the OK but he mentioned that BLE had sold more than they produced since Oct.
There could be a real supply pinch & that means higher prices IMHO. Hundreds on millions of lbs needed in coming years (so BLE says), therefore the world needs a new Thompson Creek every year or two just to keep up - and their ain't any new ones! No futures market for Mo = very high barrier for entry of new mines.

P.S. I believe Ian mentioned March 22nd for financials for 2 months of 2006 production, April reserves calcs announcements and a May 10th annual meeting - or something close to that.

BLE looking very good to me.
-----------------------

dsandds schreibt (frei übersetzt und gekürzt), dass er bei der Präsentation war. Dort hat er die Frage gestellt, was mit den Millionen von Pfund an Moly-Lagerbestand geschehen ist, die Hodson bei RobTV erwähnt hat. Der "Marketing-Mensch" (ich vermute er meint Wayne) holte sich mit einem fragenden Blick das OK des CEO, und antwortete dann, dass BPM seit Oktober mehr Moly verkauft hat, als produziert wurde.

Eine anderen Quelle (habe ich im Moment leide nicht parat) sagt, dass BPM bereits Kaufinteressenten weggeschickt hat, da sie kein Moly zu verkaufen haben (Kommentar: die laufende Produktion wird weitgehend benötigt, um die vertraglichen Lieferverpflichtungen abzudecken).

Meine Meinung dazu:
Es ist plausibel, dass diese bei der Übernahme im Lager vorhandene riesige Molymenge zwischenzeitlich verkauft wurde. Ein derartiger Überbestand (immerhin etwa 30% der Jahresproduktion) ist ökonomisch nicht sinnvoll, und hat hier im Forum bereits Ende letzten Jahres zu kritischen Fragen geführt. Das Vorhandensein dieses Lagerbestandes bei Übernahme passt allerdings gut in das Bild des privat geführten Thompson-Creek-Unternehmens, das Gewinnmaximierung anscheinend nicht als oberstes Ziel hatte (siehe auch den Arbeitszyklus der TC-Mine von jeweils 7 Tage Arbeit, dann 7 Tage Pause bis Ende Dezember).

Mit den 200 Millionen Zusatzeinnahmen liegst du wohl richtig (unter der Annahme dass tatsächlich fast der komplette Lagerbestand verkauft wurde).
In den letzten viereinhalb Monaten müsste BPM dann Umsätze in Höhe von etwa 500 Mio US-Dollar erzielt haben (Verkauf des Lagerbestandes, der laufenden Produktion und Verkauf des in Langeloth gerösteten Fremd-Moly) und einen geschätzten Gewinn nach Steuern von 220 Mio US-Dollar erzielt haben (da den Zusatzeinnahmen ja nur die ehemaligen Produktionskosten von etwa 5 $ je Pfund gegenüberstehen und dann noch die Steuern abgehen).
Ich bin selbst gespannt, wieviel davon bereits in 2006 realisiert wurde.

Mir stellt sich nur immer wieder die Frage, wann der Markt (die Anleger) den Wert und die Ertragskraft von Bluer Pearl erkennt.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Molybdenum market fundamentals look solid
Molybdenum, which is used as an anti-corrosive and as a strengthening agent in steel, attracts little attention in global commodity markets in part because the metal is primarily a by-product of other mining operations. As a result the price of the metal is volatile, as evidenced by its 2005 spike to a record US$40/lb and subsequent pullback to an average price of US$25/lb last year.

Despite this volatility the outlook for the metal appears good, as GSJB Were notes output growth is likely to be subdued in coming years. Industry insiders agree with this view as Mark Wilson, vice president of Canadian Producer Thompson Creek Metals, pointed out at a recent investment conference in the US.

Wilson\'s view is the supply-demand dynamics of the industry are favourable for higher prices, as on his firm\'s estimates the world will need a further 100 million pounds of molybdenum over the next four years to meet global demand, which is forecast to grow at a compound rate of 4% annually during this period from current levels of 410 million pounds.

Demand is being driven not only by the construction sector but also via industries such as shipping, where new legislation requires large cargo ships to have double hulls by 2010, and the increased focus on exploration in the oil and gas sector given the metal\'s use in pipes and drills.

The problem in Wilson\'s view is it is not clear where the extra supply will come from, as there are few new mines scheduled to come on stream. The only one of note in the short-term is a mine in Peru, forecast to produce six million pounds this year and nine million pounds annually from 2008.

At the same time ore grades are declining at most operations around the world, so growth from existing primary mines and by-product operations is expected to be limited. While existing producers such as Phelps Dodge are looking to ramp up production, Wilson points out this won\'t impact on output until around 2009.

The positive supply outlook is matched by increasing demand, as molybdenum is used in around 10% of all stainless steel and has little in the way of substitutes. As Smith Barney Citigroup notes, the solid steel market outlook this year implies similarly solid demand for molybdenum, particularly as the Chinese are expected to introduce export quotas at levels of 50-70% of last year\'s levels.

China is the big swing factor in the market as it appears the only producing nation likely to be able to lift output in the short-term, though Wilson suggests this may not translate into higher exports as the increased output may well be used domestically.

GSJB Were also expects demand for the metal in China to increase this year given an expected increase in steel demand, the broker estimating a 12% lift this year after a 17% increase in 2008.

The result is a positive outlook for prices, the broker suggesting molybdenum prices this year should average US$22 per pound. While this is down from last year\'s US$25 per pound average it remains well above long-term average prices. Citigroup is forecasting an average price of US$20 per pound this year and US$10 per pound in 2008, though it notes risk remains to the upside from these numbers.
Rio Tinto (RIO) offers the only real exposure to molybdenum on the Australian market, though it is not a major contributor to group earnings.

Moly Produzenten -und -explorer
Blue Pearl
Mercator Mienerals start 2q08 -ab q2 2009 volle produktion 10 mill lbs/jahr +56 mill lbs kupfer +600k unzen silber, marketcap 160 mill, wert im boden 8 mrd usd -thread vorhanden
Roca Mines 2q07 3 mill lbs thread vorhanden
Moly Mines 2008-2009 thread vorhanden
Adanac 2008-09 thread vorhanden
idaho g m 2009-10

[Firsteven]

Die Ergebnisse des letzten Quartals werden, wie schon mehrfach berichtet, am 22.03.2007 veröffentlicht.

Es ist davon auszugehen, dass in die fraglichen Zeit auch die Tatsache fallen wird, das das gelagerte Moly teilweise (ich gehe von der Hälfte, also knapp 4 Mio aus) in den Markt gegeben wurde. Es ist nach meinem Dafürhalten ebenfalls davon auszugehen, dass der von BPM generell erzielte Preis im fraglichen Quartal über dem offiziellen Marktpreis gelegen haben dürfte. Diese Schlussfolgerungen lassen sich aus den mehrfach eingestellten Marktkommentaren (u.a. Ryan´s Note) ziehen.

Einfach ausgedrückt dürfte das am 22.03.07 veröffentlichte Ergebnis über den Erwartungen des Marktes liegen.

Noch eine kurze Anmerkung zu den weiteren News, die in der Pipeline sind.

Spekulationen, dass am 14.03.2007 News bezüglich der mineral reserve erwartet werden, müssen wohl wirklich als Spekulationen bewertet werden. Es gibt hierfür keinerlei zuverlässige Quelle, sodass ich davor warne, hier eine zu große Erwartungshaltung aufzubauen.

Es ist nun einmal Fakt, dass BPM auf Dritte angewiesen ist. Bevor von dort keine Unterlagen und Ergebnisse zur Verfügung gestellt werden können, ist Blue Pearl auch nicht in der Lage, eine News zu dieser Frage publik zu machen.

Gleiches gilt im übrigen für die mögliche Kooperation mit Sojitz. Auch hier ist zu sagen, dass selbstverständlich erst einmal die neuen Ressourcenschätzungen abzuwarten sind, da niemand eine Katze im Sack kaufen (Sojitz) möchte bzw. keine Katze im Sack verkaufen (Blue Pearl) möchte.

Gehen wir einmal davon aus, dass die Ressourcen marktkonform deutlich ausgeweitet werden. Sofern dies der Fall ist, ist eine mögliche Beteiligung von Sojitz natürlich nach anderen Gesichtspunkten und zu anderen Preisen zu beurteilen als nach den heute bekannten Fakten. Ebenso ist klar, dass für Blue Pearl, nicht zuletzt auch unter Sharholdervalue-Gedanken, natürlich eine Beteiligung zu Sp(r)ottpreisen nicht in Frage kommt.

Fazit:

Eine Verlautbarung zu Sojitz und einer möglichen weiteren Partnerschaft wird es erst geben, wenn die neuen Ressourcenschätzungen vorliegen.

Nun, jetzt ist die Frage, wie die nächsten Wochen weiter verlaufen. Es ist vom Momentum ein guter Zeitpunkt für BPM. Die Phantasie mit dem Sprott Moly-Fund tut ihr Übriges, auch die am Markt vorherrschende Phantasie auf gute bis sehr gute Ergebnisse und deutlich ausgeweitete Ressourcen wirkt sich in den nächsten beiden Wochen wohl positiv auf den Kurs aus (vorbehaltlich keiner externer Szenarien).

Ich persönlich erwarte die mineral estimate erst nach den Ergebnissen am 22.03.2007, vielleicht auch erst zu Beginn des 2. Quartals 2007. Dies sollte aber nicht zum Anlaß genommen werden, besondere Spekulationen über das Wie und Warum anzustellen.

Fakt ist, dass die vorbereitenden Arbeiten derzeit im Gange sind und es im Prinzip vollkommen unerheblich ist, ob die Ressourcenschätzung nun in der letzten Märzwoche oder in der ersten oder zweiten Aprilwoche veröffentlicht wird.

Ich schlage vor, den Fokus auf die Veröffentlichung der Ergebnisse des Quartals zu lenken, denn dies wird wohl das nächste definitive Highlight von Blue Pearl sein.

Tatsache ist jedoch, dass die nächsten 3 Monate in diesem Investment wohl die interessantesten für jeden Anleger sein dürften, der seit der Übernahme vom TC mit im Boot ist. Und, meine Meinung, diese 3 Monate werden es in sich haben und die Anleger für ihr Durchhaltevermögen mit hervorragenden testierten Aussichten entschädigen.

[chartex]

Ketzerische Gedanken zu der Mär, dass man Buchgewinne realisieren sollte und damit Sicherheit erhält.

Vorwort: Die nachfolgend vorgetragenen Gedanken habe ich bewusst teilweise überspitzt und, wie ich hoffe humorvoll dargestellt. Man sollte also nicht jedes Wort auf die Goldwaage legen. Mit der Grundaussage ist es mir jedoch durchaus ernst.
Wenn der Leser angeregt wird, sich eigene Gedanken zu diesem Thema zu machen, und vielleicht auch an der einen oder anderen Stelle des Artikels ins Schmunzeln gerät, dann habe ich mein Ziel erreicht.

Außerhalb dieses Forums und auch in diesem Forum wird von echten oder auch selbsternannten "Experten" immer wieder die These vertreten, ein Buchgewinn zählt erst dann, wenn er realisiert und damit gesichert ist.
Der Allgemeingültigkeit dieses Grundsatzes möchte ich energisch Widersprechen und dies am Beispiel der Blue-Pearl-Aktie erläutern.

Angenommen ich habe mit dieser Aktie einen schönen Buchgewinn in Höhe von 200% in den letzten Monaten eingefahren. Dann habe ich immerhin die Sicherheit, dass ich zu den Börsenhandelszeiten den Gewinn innerhalb weniger Sekunden realisieren kann (soweit es sich um eine Positionsgröße im üblichen Rahmen handelt). Ich habe allerdings keine Sicherheit, dass dieser Buchgewinn am nächsten Tag, oder sogar in der nächsten Stunde noch in gleicher Höhe vorhanden ist.
Was soll ich also tun? Was passiert eigentlich, wenn ich den Gewinn realisiere, alle BPM-Aktien verkaufe und das Geld anderweitig verwende?

1) Ich könnte das Geld sicher anlegen.
a) Die sichere Anlage
Ich bringe das Geld zur Bank und lege es auf das Girokonto, auf das Sparbuch, auf das Festgeldkonto.
Nun habe ich Sicherheit, nämlich die Sicherheit, dass das Geld immer weniger wert wird.
Natürlich, der Nominalbetrag bleibt erhalten, und vielleicht bekomme ich sogar 2% oder 3% Zinsen. Im Rahmen der amtlich festgestellten Inflationsrate (und in Anbetracht der Tatsache, dass ich üblicherweise auch noch Steuer auf die Zinsen zahlen muss) ist das ein Nullsummenspiel.
Wenn ich mir allerdings bewusst bin, dass die amtlich festgestellte Inflationsrate wesentlich niedriger ist, als die tatsächliche Geldentwertung (man kann wohl eher von 6% - 12% Geldwertverlust pro Jahr ausgehen), dann kann ich mir für mein sicher angelegtes Geld jedes Jahr weniger kaufen, mache also Verlust. Nicht so gut.
b) Die sicherere Anlage
Ich traue keiner Bank, keiner Sparkasse, keiner Versicherung. Für mich zählt nur Bargeld, dass ich sicher verwahrt habe und jeden Tag zählen kann. Gut versteckt unter meinem Kopfkissen ist das Geld genauso sicher, wie im Geldspeicher von Dagobert Duck !!!!!!
(Woher wusste der Einbracher nur, dass ich mein Geld ausgerechnet unter meinem Kopfkissen versteckt hatte?)
c) Die sicherste Anlage
Geld aufzubewahren ist vielleicht doch nicht so sicher. Aber es gibt ein absolut sicheres Mittel, einen sicheren Nutzen aus dem Geld zu ziehen. Ich führe es dem Zweck zu, zu dem es gedacht ist. Ich bezahle damit Besuche in den besten Restaurants der Stadt, gehe jeden Abend in eine heiße Disco, kaufe meiner Familie die neuesten und schicksten Klamotten, ein Ferrari ist auch noch drin (gebraucht natürlich, da ist der Wertverlust nicht so elend hoch), neue Möbel für das Wohnzimmer ......
Hey, ich habe doch die Buchgewinne realisiert, um das Geld sicher zu haben. Wieso habe ich jetzt gar keines mehr ????

Na, ich kenne zwar nicht jeden Anleger in diesem Forum persönlich, aber ich bin mir sicher, dass diese 3 Anlageformen 1a bis 1c für die große Mehrzahl nicht in Frage kommt. Also wenden wir uns der zweiten Möglichkeit zu:

2) Ich könnte das Geld neu investieren.
a) Die renditeträchtige Anlage
Wo habe ich die besten Aussichten für eine gewaltige Wertsteigerung? Genau, ich investiere in einen aussichtsreichen Explorer. Die Gewinnchance habe ich mit 164% Kurssteigerung auf Sicht von 2 Monaten beziffert.
Zu dumm nur, dass die Aktie seit meinem Kauf um 43% gefallen ist. Und seit Monaten kein Anzeichen von Erholung.
Dabei habe ich doch meine Buchgewinne aus Blue Pearl realisiert, um den Gewinn zu sichern. Und jetzt habe ich 43% weniger. Zu dumm aber auch.
b) Die konservative Anlage
Wo habe ich die beste Sicherheit gegen Wertverlust. Ja, genau, ich investiere in eine absolut konservative Aktie aus dem Dax. Welche Aktie bietet die höchst Sicherheit? Eine Aktie, die möglichst deutlich unterbewertet sein sollte, also ein möglichst niedriges KGV aufweist (Kommentar: Es gibt verschiedene Möglichkeiten, festzustellen, ob eine Aktie unterbewertet ist. Eine gute, gebräuchliche und anerkannte Methode ist die Aktienauswahl nach KGV). Eine hoch bewertete Aktie, also eine aktie mit hohem KGV kommt für mich jedenfalls nicht in Frage, da ist mir das Absturzrisiko zu hoch.
Also gucken wir einmal: Adidas 13,66 - Allianz 9,80 - Altana 12,33 - BASF 11,58 - Bayer 16,51 - BMW 10,47 - Commerzbank 12,10 .......
Hey, wieso haben die alle ein viel höheres (schlechteres) KGV als Blue Pearl ??? BPM liegt nach meiner Rechnung etwa bei 2,60.
Da würde ich ja in eine viel riskantere Aktie investieren als bisher. Das kanns ja wohl auch nicht sein.

Ich stelle also fest, ich habe ein echtes Dilemma. Entweder ich ziehe mich aus dem Aktienbereich vollkommen zurück, dann wäre die Realisierung der Buchgewinne möglicherweise sinnvoll. Oder ich muss für die Wiederanlage eine Aktie finden, die ein geringeres Risiko aufweist, als das bisherige Engagement. Eine solche Aktie gegenüber Blue Pearl zu finden, dürfte sehr schwer sein.

Was ich mit diesem Artikel ausdrücken möchte:
Der Rat (oder die Forderung) Buchgewinne zu realisieren muss durchaus kritsch hinterfragt werden. So kann es durchaus sinnvoll sein, eine hochriskante Aktie nach entsprechenden Gewinnen zu verkaufen und in eine weniger riskante Aktie zu investieren. Es ist aber sicher dann nicht sinnvoll, wenn das neue Investment riskanter ist als das alte.
Eine Teil-Realisierung von Buchgewinnen ist aber immer dann anzuraten, wenn die einzelne Position durch Gewinnzuwachs einen (für den einzelnen) nicht mehr tolerablen Wertanteil im Depot erreicht hat.

Ich kann also jedem nur ans Herz legen, in regelmäßigen Abständen erneut zu prüfen, ob die Gewinnaussichten und das Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis jeder einzelnen Aktie im Depot nach wir vor gut ist. Ratschläge von anderen Personen sollte man als Denkanstoß begreifen für eigene Überlegungen und Nachforschungen. Es kann jedoch ein schwerer Fehler sein, solche Ratschläge ungeprüft zu übernehmen.

Das allgemeine Risiko der Anlage in Aktien wird auch immer erhalten bleiben. Wenn der weltweite Aktienmarkt auf Tauchstation geht, dann kann sich, zumindest kurzfristig, kaum eine Aktie ausschließen. Und auch die beste Aktie ist niemals zu hundert Prozen sicher, da brauchen wir noch nicht einmal an dem berühmten Einschlag eines Meteoiten zu denken, der eine ganze Betriebsstätte eines Unternehmens auslöscht.

chartex

[Firsteven]

This site is usually the last to show Moly price changes, but they currently have Moly at $30.25 p/lb.

http://www.indianmetals.com/prices/prices.php?state=showform…


Material 09-Mar-07
CIF M.I.P. Last Changed

Minor Metals
Antimony 99.65% min (Per/Mt) [ Click to Buy ] 5480.00 5500.00[02-Mar-07]
Arsenic 99% min (Per/Lb) 0.72 0.75[08-Mar-07]
Bismuth 99.99% min (Per/Lb) [ Click to Buy ] 10.65 10.50[08-Mar-07]
Cadmium 99.99% min (Per/Lb) 2.50 2.25[08-Mar-07]
Cadmium 99.95% min (Per/Lb) [ Click to Buy ] 2.40 1.95[08-Mar-07]
Chromium Alumino- thermic 99% min (Per/Lb) 7210.00 6200.00[08-Mar-07]
Cobalt Cathodes 99.8% min (Per/Lb) 30.50 28.50[08-Mar-07]
Cobalt Cathodes 99.6% min (Per/Lb) [ Click to Buy ]
Cobalt Ingots 99.3% ]min (Per/Lb) 30.00 23.50[08-Mar-07]
Magnesium Chinese 99.9% min (Per/Mt) [ Click to Buy ] 2370.00 2350.00[08-Mar-07]
Manganese Electrolytic flakes 99.7% min (Per/Mt) [ Click to Buy ] 2150.00 2100.00[08-Mar-07]
Mercury Virgin 99.99% min (Per/Flk) 560.00 600.00[08-Mar-07]
Molyoxide Western 57-62% Momin (Per/Lb) [ Click to Buy ] 30.25 27.50[08-Mar-07]
Molyoxide Chinese 57-60% Momin (Per/Lb) 30.25 27.50[08-Mar-07]
Selenium 99.5% min (Per/Lb) [ Click to Buy ] 25.00 26.00[08-Mar-07]
Silicon 441 Grade (Per/Mt) [ Click to Buy ] 1250.00 1260.00[06-Mar-07]
Silicon 553 Grade (Per/Mt) [ Click to Buy ] 1220.00 1230.00[06-Mar-07]
V2O5 98% min (Per/Lb)

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes Molybdenum


Mar/05 RN Commentary (a bit late as I was away @ PDAC in Toronto)

Moly Prices Jump in Europe: Ryan's Notes:

Ferromoly and moly oxide prices took a large upward leap

last week, while prices in the US hardly moved. The result

was that many traders were looking for signs of material

being shipped from the US where there is significant competition

from domestic producers to Europe were demand

appears more robust and returns are decidedly higher.

Truckload sales of FeMo were done in Europe at $68-69

per kg at the start of the week and at $72-74 at the end of the

week. One trader reported selling at $78. In the US, consumer

FeMo sales were booked at just over $29 per lb, even

though several inter-merchant sales were done at $31 per lb

and just under $31. Some suppliers said they were selling

small quantities at $29.50, while others had raised their

prices for ltls to $31. Chinese suppliers raised their prices to

$66-70 per kg for shipment. Few traders, however, are willing

to risk buying for shipment. The price for Chinese FeMo

on the ground in Rotterdam is $75.

European consumers reported paying $27.50 per lb for

oxide and being quoted $28.20-28.50 later in the week. JDC

is believed to have raised its oxide price to $28.50 from

$27.30 during the course of the week. A sale of briquettes

reportedly was done at just under $28. In the US, a truckload

sale of oxide was booked at $26.25 and a half-truck was sold

at $27.25.

The order books for European stainless steel producers and

high speed steel producers are strong, sources note, and as a

result they expect prices to firm further this month. "There is

still buying to be done for the second half of March, " said a

producer source. Meanwhile, producers in Europe and the

US are heavily committed under contracts and are participating

in spot tenders only sporadically. Codelco reported

that its 2006 production fell 26% to 27,200 mt compared to

36,600 mt in 2005. Codelco revised its production estimate

several times, with the last being 31,000-32,000 mt in

January. For 2007, Codelco expects production to drop even

further, possibly to as low as 25,000 mt.

"The only thing that could get in the way of moly prices

rising further is a falloff in demand, and I don't see that happening

in the first half," said a European source. Even

though there are signs of a slowdown in US stainless production,

the moly market has not been affected to date.

[Firsteven]

Is moly on brink of being mining megastar?
ANDY HOFFMAN AND SINCLAIR STEWART

Globe and Mail Update

Investment fund offers exposure ...Read the full article

This conversation is closed

Skip to the latest comment
Ray C. from Richmond Hill, Canada writes: Megabucks? Holy Moly !!
Posted 04/03/07 at 9:42 PM EDT | Alert an Editor | Link to Comment

Tommy Mark from Toronto, Canada writes: Holy Moly will never be the megastar because of its limited use and most of its function can be replaced by several other metals of greater abundance. Its use will continue as long as its price remains at a reasonable level. once it get too high, its metallurgical function can readily be replaced by the likes of chromium, selenium. tellurium and tungsten. For this reason, the proposed Moly Fund will not have a future anywhere near its counter part in uranium.
Posted 04/03/07 at 10:24 PM EDT | Alert an Editor | Link to Comment

Jim Corrigan from Toronto, Canada writes: I remember a lot of people balked when the Uranium Participation fund came out, managed in part by Denison Mines. Back then, like now, there was coal and natural gas. These two alternatives are still quite cheap compared to where uranium has gone since the original offering. Sprott appears to be very clever by targeting the tightest, least liquid markets and I think that makes a big difference in terms of alternatives. I'll be looking for more details on this particular fund.
Posted 04/03/07 at 10:57 PM EDT | Alert an Editor | Link to Comment

Mark H from Columbus, IN, United States writes: "Holy Moly will never be the megastar because of its limited use and most of its function can be replaced by several other metals of greater abundance"

Tommy, that is utterly NOT TRUE. Moly is actually a CHEAPER alternative to cobalt in some alloys - of which there is no primary north american supply. That's why people started developing moly steels (M-type tool steels) in the 40's so we could make airplanes faster for the Brits. Selenium and tellerium are actually more rare and expensive, and only have niche uses in premium-grade remelted aircraft alloys. The supply and demand are nowhere near Mo's, which provides high hot-hardness and creep strength for myriad components in everything from the gas turbine industry to nuclear power to diesel engines.

By the way - MS metallurgy, Purdue, currently employed in one of the above mentioned industries.
Posted 05/03/07 at 9:00 AM EDT | Alert an Editor | Link to Comment

Howard Beale from Canada writes: Jim Corrigan writes "Sprott appears to be very clever by targeting the tightest, least liquid markets. " No Jim, Sprott is very clever about separating fools from their money. Chalk up another for fleecing the lambs.
Posted 05/03/07 at 9:37 AM EDT | Alert an Editor | Link to Comment

Garrett Deyne from mississauga, Canada writes: I'm with Mark on this one. Moly cannot be replaced by other minerals. That would be like trying to turn Iron into Gold. Moly has specific properties for specific uses and cannot be replaced. As technology improves we find more and more uses for it. The fact of the matter is you can't make a turbine engine blade with out it. The heat is far to extreme for any steel that doesn't have Moly. So unless you think were going to make less turbine engines (and the last time I checked there were more airplanes not less) Moly is around to stay no matter what the price.

[therefore]

Hallo Leute,

ich hatte bei Wayne Cheveldayoff noch Fragen dem Verbleib der 8 Mio. IB gestellt.

Hier ist die Antwort des workaholics:

As for our inventories (which I believe you meant when you asked about
warehouse) and sales, we will disclose this on a regular basis in our
quarterly financial statements. Our Q4 statements are likely to be
released
March 22. Our Q1 2007 statements likely to be released around May 10 or
11.

In the question and answer session following Mark Wilson\'s presentation
last
Monday, he was asked about the inventory. He said that year to date
(since
Jan. 1) our sales have exceeded our production so the inventory has
been
reduced.

Best regards,
Wayne Cheveldayoff

Die genauen Bestandsdaten zum 31.12.2006 werden also am 22.März mit bekanntgegeben. Es wurden aber bis zum Jahresende nichts aus dem Bestand abverkauft. Das ist auch gut so, da Ende 2006 der Preis noch viel zu niedrig war.

Am 10 oder 11. Mai kommt dann das Quartalsergebnis vom ersten Quartal 2007. Dort wurden dann zu dem erhöhten Preis Ware aus dem Bestand abverkauft. Es wurde also mehr verkauft, als produziert wurde. Alle Ergebniskalkulationen auf Basis von 21 Mio. IB verkauftem Moly in 2007 können also schon einmal in den Müll geworfen werden.

Dieses Jahr wird also mehr Moly verkauft, als produziert wird und dies zu deutlich höheren Preisen als erwartet.

Das hört sich gut an.

Wie fragte ein staunender sich selbst entlarvender Mitbürger hier im Thread: Hat sich fundamental etwas verändert? Ich gebe ihm einen offene und ehrliche Antwort und die aus voller Überzeugung: Ja, die fundametalen Daten haben sich wieder Erwarten in dieser Woche noch weiter verbessert. Hätte man auch selber drauf kommen können, oder?

Zu dem Timing des neuen Fonds von Eric Sprott erhielt ich folgende Antwort:
In Canada, when a company files a prospectus to issue shares, it is not
known in advance when the shares will be issued, funds received,
business
begin, and shares start trading on the stock exchange. There is a
period of
marketing of the shares, then a final prospectus is filed, the deal
closes
(funds received) and the shares start trading. This often takes 4-6
weeks,
but there is no set schedule.

If you want to read the preliminary prospectus, it is available at
www.sedar.com under Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation. If you
go
to the financial statements, on page F-7, in note 3, you will see what
the
corporation already owns.

You can check the sedar site regularly to see when a final prospectus
is
filed.

Hat hier irgend jemand Zugriff auf SEDAR und kann uns einmal die angegebenen Informationen einstellen?

Die Art der "Corporation" würde mich schon einmal interessieren.

therefore

[schnucksche]

Mar.09/07

FeMo hits $80 per kg and pauses:

European ferromoly prices zoomed up above $80 per kg at

the start of the week and then settled at $78-79 at the end of

the week. Consumer prices in the US barely budged, but

there was little spot buying to test the market. Inter-merchant

sales, however, were done at $31-32. Presumably the purchasers

planned to ship the material over to Europe, where

nearby business was concluded at $80-81 per kg. US traders

continued to complain that they cannot compete with

domestic producers on ferromoly, even though many of the

producers are well-sold under contracts.

Oxide price increases have lagged those of FeMo in

Europe. At the start of the week, sales of briquettes were

reported at $29.40-29.50 per lb, but later, a consumer was

able to buy two containers of oxide at $28.25. In the US, sellers

said they were having little success, even at $27.50.

"This is not a flash in the pan," said one trader who thought

it was a bullish sign that oxide prices were moving up to

close the gap with FeMo rather than FeMo prices softening.

Producer sources point out that several European steel mills

are not covered for April and some producers are sold out for

April. As a result, they expect the market strength to last.

Chinese quotas on moly exports are expected to be

announced this week. The quotas have been anticipated

for several months, and as a result, some suppliers

have withdrawn from the export market and concentrated

on domestic sales, especially as demand from

stainless mills has been strong. In addition to concerns

about export quotas and export license qualifications,

record snowfall has impeded supply from China.

Ferromoly producers and moly miners in northeast

China have had to halt production, and Western traders

report that shipments have been delayed because of

transportation problems caused by the snow.

Chinese ferromoly exports fell 33% in January to 1,468 mt

compared to 2,180 mt in January 2006. Shipments were:

457 mt (178 mt in January 2006) to Taiwan; 257 mt (443

mt) to Rotterdam; 201 mt (452 mt) to the US and 122 mt

(375 mt) to Japan. Imports of moly concentrates fell

52% to 936 mt in January compared to 1,969 mt in

January last year. Imports were 447 mt (661 mt in

January 2006) from Chile; 163 mt (918 mt) from Peru

and 128 mt (172 mt) from Mongolia. In 2006, stateowned

moly mines produced 98,760 mt (material basis),

up 48% compared to 66,600 mt in 2005.

[sloopjohn]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.244.502 von therefore am 11.03.07 22:16:46

Hi therefore,

die betreffenden Infos findest Du im Preliminary Prospectus (67 Seiten) der Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation vom 01.03.07 als pdf unter folgendem link:

http://www.sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=9&issuerNo=…

Gruß,
sloop

[Firsteven]

Mar.09/07

FeMo hits $80 per kg and pauses:

European ferromoly prices zoomed up above $80 per kg at

the start of the week and then settled at $78-79 at the end of

the week. Consumer prices in the US barely budged, but

there was little spot buying to test the market. Inter-merchant

sales, however, were done at $31-32. Presumably the purchasers

planned to ship the material over to Europe, where

nearby business was concluded at $80-81 per kg. US traders

continued to complain that they cannot compete with

domestic producers on ferromoly, even though many of the

producers are well-sold under contracts.

Oxide price increases have lagged those of FeMo in

Europe. At the start of the week, sales of briquettes were

reported at $29.40-29.50 per lb, but later, a consumer was

able to buy two containers of oxide at $28.25. In the US, sellers

said they were having little success, even at $27.50.

"This is not a flash in the pan," said one trader who thought

it was a bullish sign that oxide prices were moving up to

close the gap with FeMo rather than FeMo prices softening.

Producer sources point out that several European steel mills

are not covered for April and some producers are sold out for

April. As a result, they expect the market strength to last.

Chinese quotas on moly exports are expected to be

announced this week. The quotas have been anticipated

for several months, and as a result, some suppliers

have withdrawn from the export market and concentrated

on domestic sales, especially as demand from

stainless mills has been strong. In addition to concerns

about export quotas and export license qualifications,

record snowfall has impeded supply from China.

Ferromoly producers and moly miners in northeast

China have had to halt production, and Western traders

report that shipments have been delayed because of

transportation problems caused by the snow.

Chinese ferromoly exports fell 33% in January to 1,468 mt

compared to 2,180 mt in January 2006 . Shipments were:

457 mt (178 mt in January 2006) to Taiwan; 257 mt (443

mt) to Rotterdam; 201 mt (452 mt) to the US and 122 mt

(375 mt) to Japan. Imports of moly concentrates fell

52% to 936 mt in January compared to 1,969 mt in

January last year. Imports were 447 mt (661 mt in

January 2006) from Chile; 163 mt (918 mt) from Peru

and 128 mt (172 mt) from Mongolia. In 2006, stateowned

moly mines produced 98,760 mt (material basis),

up 48% compared to 66,600 mt in 2005.

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.244.502 von therefore am 11.03.07 22:16:46

@therefore und sloopjohn

SUPER ARBEIT!


Also am 01.03.2007 wurde das Dokument bei Sedar eingestellt.
Es steht auch einiges über Blue Pearl drin.

Wenn die Vorbereitungen bis zum Listing etwa 4-6 Wochen dauert (seit Anfang März), dann können wir davon ausgehen, dass bis spätestens Mitte April die neue Firma gelistet ist.

Vom Timing her geht es ja kaum besser. Wenn dann Moly aufgekauft wird (somit stark steigende Kurse da Moly dem Markt entzogen wird- Moly wird dadurch noch knapper) und der Fonds auch Blue Pearl Aktien kauft - dann wird Blue Pearl im April richtig nach oben ziehen - zumal rein zufällig Ende April die Resourcenschätzungen zu TCM und Endako bekannt gegeben werden sollen und auch die Machbarkeitsstudie heraus gebracht werden soll!

http://www.sedar.com/CheckCode.do;jsessionid=0000c14RNklBDPf…


Das alles trägt m.E. die Handschrift von Ian Mc Donald.

Der weiß ganz genau was und wann er was zu tun hat!!!

[eifelcash]

China shock hits global ferromoly consumers scrambling for offers
Source: Platts


See also
Ferro Molybdenum Board
Ferro Molybdenum Catalog"China shock" has hit ferromoly consumers worldwide, scrambling to obtain firm sell offers, sources in Japan and South Korea told Platts on Thursday.

The Chinese government is expected to impose a quota on molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum exports in the first half of this year. There has been no official announcement on the system yet, but consumers, notably those in Europe, are rushing to build up their inventories. Some Japanese consumers have also been affected.

One Japanese trader said he had around 100 mt of molybdenum materials stored in warehouses in Europe and they sold out. A Korean trader said he has heard that ferromoly stocks in Rotterdam warehouses have decreased to the volume equivalent to 15 days of consumption. There was no supply disruptions at plants around Europe, and there was no sudden surge in the ferromoly consumption levels, but the buying frenzy flared up.

"This is not normal," said one Japanese trader, citing that most European consumers in the steel sector use moly oxide rather than ferromoly.

"This is because if China implements the quota, there is no way for the Europeans to replenish their current stocks," said one Korean source.

"Madness over ferromoly," as one Japanese trader described, has also spread to some consumers in Japan.

A second Japanese trader who has businesses with steel mills operating electric arc furnaces said some mills were forced to call off ferromoly tenders planned in February.

"The mills passed notes to traders calling for tenders, and have received back notes declining to participate," the trader said.

"Tender participants were afraid that even if they won, they would not be able to deliver, as export policy changes in China could hit any day," he said.

Traders said some Chinese sellers have been inconsistent, making sell offers one day and stopping the next day.

The situation is hitting smaller consumers rather than major mills operating blast furnaces. "Blast furnaces can use materials in various sizes, they are big enough to stomach just about any ferromoly. But smaller mills and consumers fabricating metals, have a set requirement regarding the ferroalloy conditions. They can not just use any metal," one source said.

Meanwhile, Japanese traders said they received buy inquiries from consumers and traders in Europe, India, South Korea and other parts of the world. Japanese usually to get more sell offers than buy queries.

A Korean trader reported selling ferromoly to an European buyer Wednesday at $71/kg CIF Rotterdam, prompt shipment. A Japanese trader sold one container of Chile-origin ferromoly at $67.50/kg CIF also to Europe, prompt shipment, and one container of Chinese-origin material at $67.50/kg CIF Europe, prompt.

The Korean trader said his current offer is $75/kg CIF Europe. "The price could hit $80/kg CIF," he added.

◄ Back Back to top ▲

[eifelcash]

Blue Pearl to Prepay Second Lien Credit Facility

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - March 12, 2007) - Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., (TSX:BLE)(TSX:BLE.WT)(TSX:BLE.WT.A)(FRANKFURT:A6R) the world\'s largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, today announced that this week it will prepay the US$62 million Second Lien Credit Facility it entered into last October as part of the debt financing to purchase Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC). At the request of Blue Pearl, First Lien Credit Facility lenders have allowed the prepayment by waiving their right to be paid prior to the Second Lien lenders.

"We\'re delighted that the lenders involved in the First Lien Credit Facility have given their approval for Blue Pearl to pay off the Second Lien," said Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman.

"The Second Lien was necessary to complete the acquisition but it had an especially high interest rate of LIBOR plus 10 percentage points, costing Blue Pearl about US$9 million per year in interest charges.

"The molybdenum price has remained strong and our company has accumulated significant cash balances that allowed for this prepayment."

The remaining US$340 million First Lien Credit Facility has an interest rate of LIBOR plus 4.75 percentage points. Principal payments of US$18.75 million per quarter are required on the First Lien in 2007.

"Paying down debt is among the priorities we have announced for Blue Pearl," Mr. McDonald stated. "At the end of March, following just over five months of operations since the TCMC acquisition and after we have made our first regular quarterly payment on the First Lien, Blue Pearl\'s bank debt will be less than $320 million, a considerable reduction from the total bank debt of $402 million incurred for the acquisition.

"As we announced in our January 16, 2007 news release on our outlook and initiatives, another priority is the development of new mine plans at our Thompson Creek and Endako mines based on a re-evaluation of the mineral reserves and mineral resources assuming a long-term molybdenum price of US$10 per pound. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of US$5 per pound at Thompson Creek and US$3.50 per pound at Endako.

"We are also focused on bringing our high-grade Davidson deposit into production. A feasibility study for this is currently being conducted.

"Revised mineral resources and reserves for all three operations are expected in the near future," he said.

About Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.

Blue Pearl is the world\'s fifth-largest molybdenum producer. The company in October 2006 purchased the Thompson Creek open-pit molybdenum mine and mill in Idaho, the Endako open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility in Northern British Columbia, and a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania. Blue Pearl is also developing the Davidson high-grade underground molybdenum project near Smithers, B.C. The company has more than 700 employees. Its head office is in Toronto, Ontario. It also has executive offices in Vancouver, British Columbia and Denver, Colorado (including sales and marketing). More information is available at www.bluepearl.ca.

[chartex]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.253.148 von eifelcash am 12.03.07 13:42:55

Eine kleine Sensation!!
Blue Pearl zahlt 62 Mio Dollar an Kredit vorzeitig zurück.

Da einige Teilnehmer im Thread Texte in Englisch nicht so gut verstehen, will ich in Kurzform den Inhalt der News erläutern:

Blue Pearl will in diese Woche den für die Thompson-Creek-Übernahme aufgenommenen "Second Lien Credit" in Höhe von 62 Mio Dollar vollständig zurückzahlen.
Die gesamte Kreditsumme betrug 402 Mio Dollar und bestand aus mehreren Teilkrediten.
Der Teilkredit der jetzt zurückbezahlt werden soll, ist besonders hoch verzinst und konnte nach den Vereinbarungen erst getilgt werden, wenn der niedrigverzinste Kreditteil abgetragen ist (oder speziell dafür eine Kapitalerhöhung vorgenommen wird). Die Kreditgeber haben auf Bitten von Blue Pearl jedoch einer vorzeitigen Tilgung zugestimmt.

Durch die vorzeitige Tilgung erspart sich Blue Pearl Zinsen in Höhe von 9 Mio Dollar pro Jahr.

Der Molypreis ist hoch geblieben und BPM hat einen bedeutenden Geldbetrag angesammelt und kann somit diese vorzeitige Tilgung vornehmen.

Ende März, wenn auch die reguläre Kredittilgungsrate bezahlt ist, wird der Kredit von ursprünglich 402 Mio Dollar auf 320 Mio Dollar geschrumpft sein.

(Kommentar: Zusammen mit der bereits an den Alteigentümer geleisteten Zahlung von ebenfalls 62 Mio Dollar, hat BPM dann rund 143 Mio Dollar an Schulden getilgt in den 5 Monaten seit der Übernahme. Ein weiterer Beweis für die Finanzkraft des Unternehmens. Im Stockhouse-Forum hat ein User Blue Pearl als "Geld-Druck-Maschine" bezeichnet - er könnte mit dieser Auffassung recht haben )

chartex

[schnucksche]

China Commodities Weekly - China to introduce molybdenum quotas?
By:
Posted: '12-MAR-07 09:46' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006



SHFE copper prices remained virtually unchanged last week, despite the strong price recovery on the LME. The SHFE copper front month contract went down to Rmb57,360/t (US$7,354/t) at market close on Friday, a minor fall of Rmb20/t (US$2.5/t), or 0.03% from the previous week's close.

SHFE aluminium prices came down in line with copper last week. The front month aluminium contract was down by 0.8% WoW to close at Rmb19,520/t (US$2,502/t) on Friday. SHFE-registered aluminium stocks rose to 99,377t, an increase of 6,450t or 6.9% from the previous Friday.

China plans to introduce a quota system on molybdenum exports in 2007 in an effort to reduce Chinese trade surplus and ease the pressure on Rmb appreciation. It is rumoured that the announcement could be made as early as end-March and it may be accompanied by a series of tax adjustments on various commodities, including cuts in tax rebates on steel and aluminium semi-fabricated products. We believe the introduction of a quota on molybdenum exports will further depress Chinese exports in 2007. Chinese January nickel trade figures showed some interesting trends: 1)strong refined metal exports and falling imports, although China remains a large net importer of refined nickel, 2) strong recovery in nickel concentrate imports after a big fall in December 2006, and 3) a huge jump in Chinese exports of ferro-nickel due to customs misclassification of nickel pig iron as ferro-nickel (Fe Ni).

China's Chamber of Commerce of Metals Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters (CCCMC) called a gathering of iron ore traders on Tuesday to discuss counter-measures to India's recent imposition of a $6.7/t tax on iron ore export. For spot purchases, it is hard to see what bargaining power the Chinese buyers have to limit any increase in prices. Indeed, it appears that the Indian export tax is already feeding through into higher Chinese prices.

Last week, the price for 66% Hebei iron ore fines was quoted at $87/t ex-VAT, unchanged WoW but 2.3% higher MoM, while the Indian ore price reached $91/t CIF, surging by $6/t WoW and $9/t MoM.

Last week, hot rolled coil prices reached $478/t ex-VAT, up by 0.1% WoW and 0.8% MoM while cold rolled coil prices increased by 0.3% WoW to $565/t. Rebar prices also increased by 0.3% WoW to $359/t and galvanised steel was unchanged at $612/t excluding VAT this week.

[schnucksche]

China to Restrict Molybdenum Exports

By David Harman
12 Mar 2007 at 10:17 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China plans to introduce a quota system for molybdenum product export in order to conserve strategic mineral reserves, an analyst surnamed Yang with the China Metals Information Network Antaike, told Interfax today.

Yang estimated that the quota system will come into effect by either the end of this month or the beginning of April, as the government has not yet finalized quota limits for producers and traders.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --


In November 2006, RI reported that China had imposed an export duty on molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum of 10%.

China's molybdenum product export is set to decrease by 10% and export permission will only be granted to exporters with an export volume of over 3,000 tonnes in the last three years and traders in at least 1,000 tonnes in the past three years, according to China Nonferrous Metals News. Molybdenum exporters must also have a registered capital of at least RMB 100 million ($12.91 million).

Molybdenum is mainly used as an alloy to strengthen iron and steel, increasing the melting point and enhancing resistance to corrosion. The USGS puts the world moly resources at 19 million tonnes, with China accounting for 8.3 million tonnes.

International molybdenum prices have reached $80 per kilogram, up $20 from before the Spring Festival, while the domestic price has remained relatively low, Yang said.

Ferromolybdenum FOB price is currently $69-$72 per kilogram. In the past 15 years, the price of molybdenum has been as low at $1.82/lb and as high as $40/lb. Today's price in pounds is about $28/lb.

Commentary

Molybdenum and related products have obviously seen a massive increase in demand in China over the past few years in line with the growth of the steel industry. Perhaps even more so in the past two years, considering China's increased output of high-end finished steel product and demand from the energy sectors.

China already has export restrictions in place by way of levies on ferromoly and moly-oxide. Nevertheless, with domestic demand showing little sign of peaking, China needs to protect its resources. These additional measures, and the resultant reduction in export forecasts, may further enhance the current bull market.

© Interfax-China 2007

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 46 Min. 20 Sec. - Peter Hodson zu Moly der neuen Moly-Firma von Sprott u. kurz wurde Blue Pearl mal erwähnt:

Monday, March 12, 2007 12:30 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
North American Equities
Peter Hodson, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management


Ab 55 Min. 30 Sec.

Peter Hodson zu Blue Pearl!!!!!!

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

die heutige Nachricht hat wieder einmal eindeutig gezeigt, dass ich im Mailverkehr mit Wayne Cheveldayoff von BluePearl noch nie belogen wurden.

Er hat mir von dem Gerücht im Markt von der Ablösung des second line credits berichtet. Auch schrieb er, dass dieser Kredit eigentlich nur über eine Kapitalerhöhung bezahlt werden könnte.

Wenn es eine Einigung mit der Bank geben würde, dann wird BluePearl direkt informieren.

Hier haben im Januar tatsächlich einige, die von dem versuch den Kredit ablösen zu wollen mitgedacht. Diese Insider mußten, da sie den Vertrag kannten, von einer Kapitalerhöhung ausgehen. Dadurch kam der Kursrückgang im Januar und Anfang Februar zu Stande.

Nachdem Ian das Gerücht aus dem Markt genommen hatte, ging es dann auch wieder aufwärts mit dem Kurs.

Heute kommt nun die endgültige Auflösung, wie der 2 line credit bezahlt wird. Die Kapitalerhöhung entfällt ersatzlos.

Damit hat sich wieder einmal eine Behauptung eines uns alle bekannten Chartexperten als plumpe Unterstellung in Luft aufgelöst (Stichwort: Gerücht über ein Gerücht). Kann ja jedem mal passieren.

Zu seiner Information: Die Wahrheit kommt immer an den Tag. Bei BluePearl werden wir nicht belogen. Mein Vertrauen in das Management und die Story wächst weiter.

Wenn man davon ausgeht, dass der Kredit von Januar bis März um über 82 USD reduziert werden konnte und man mit Sicherheit auch noch Geld für die anstehenden Investitionen für die Studien, den Produktionsstart von Davidson und der Minenereweiterung von Endako angespart hat, dann kann man so langsam erahnen, was an positiven Überraschungen im ersten Quartalsbericht von 2007 am 10. oder 11.Mai enthalten sein wird.

therefore

[schnucksche]

Auf einen Aspekt will ich auch bei der derzeitigen Euphorie noch einmal hinweisen:

Blue hat heute mitgeteilt, einen "zweitrangigen" Kredit in Höhe von 62 Mio US-Dollar zu tilgen. Die Tilgung ist möglich durch die wohl hervorragenden Ergebnisse der letzten Monate. Laut Peter Hodson ist Blue nach wie vor ein Top Pick und die Aktie ist nach wie vor billig. Blue Pearl habe das Problem, auf zuviel Geld zu sitzen, daher die vorzeitige Rückzahlung.

Dies ist jedoch einfach nur das, was Wayne mir und anderen Usern mehrfach geschrieben hat und auch von Ian regelmäßig publiziert wurde. "PAY DOWN THE DEBT", dem hat sich vorerst alles andere unterzuordnen.

Nun aber zu dem Punkt, der mich am meisten beeindruckt:

Die erstrangigen Gläubiger haben dieser vorzeitigen Rückzahlung an den zweitrangigen Gläubiger zugestimmt. Was sagt uns das ?

Es verzichtet jemand auf eine Kreditrückzahlung zugunsten eines anderen, der nachrangige Ansprüche hat. Das ist fast wie an der Kasse jemanden vorzulassen

Ernsthaft:

Die erstrangigen Gläubiger verschlechtern dadurch ihre Stellung. Wann mache ich so etwas ?

Natürlich nur dann, wenn ich mehr als sicher bin, dass alles vollkommen nach Plan läuft und ich die Gewißheit habe, meine Tilgung und die Zinsen dauerhaft zu erhalten. Da hier keine kleinen Volksbanken als Gläubiger auftreten, kann sich jeder ausrechnen, dass diese Banken mehr als genau über die Ertragslage von Blue Pearl Bescheid wissen.

Dies ist einmal mehr ein Vertrauensbeweis für Blue Pearl und das Management.

Ich bin mehr denn je von der Aktie überzeugt. Die, die lange dabei sind, wissen, dass ich das auch bei 4,80 € gewesen bin.

Nach meiner festen Überzeugung werden die nächsten 8 Wochen vermutlich mit die Besten werden, die man als BPM-Aktionär bislang geniessen durfte.

Herzlichen Glückwunsch allen hier im Thread, die diesen Trend früh genug erkannt und rechtzeitig dabei gewesen sind.

[Firsteven]

von Schnuckschen

Auf einen Aspekt will ich auch bei der derzeitigen Euphorie noch einmal hinweisen:

Blue hat heute mitgeteilt, einen "zweitrangigen" Kredit in Höhe von 62 Mio US-Dollar zu tilgen. Die Tilgung ist möglich durch die wohl hervorragenden Ergebnisse der letzten Monate. Laut Peter Hodson ist Blue nach wie vor ein Top Pick und die Aktie ist nach wie vor billig. Blue Pearl habe das Problem, auf zuviel Geld zu sitzen, daher die vorzeitige Rückzahlung.

Dies ist jedoch einfach nur das, was Wayne mir und anderen Usern mehrfach geschrieben hat und auch von Ian regelmäßig publiziert wurde. "PAY DOWN THE DEBT", dem hat sich vorerst alles andere unterzuordnen.

Nun aber zu dem Punkt, der mich am meisten beeindruckt:

Die erstrangigen Gläubiger haben dieser vorzeitigen Rückzahlung an den zweitrangigen Gläubiger zugestimmt. Was sagt uns das ?

Es verzichtet jemand auf eine Kreditrückzahlung zugunsten eines anderen, der nachrangige Ansprüche hat. Das ist fast wie an der Kasse jemanden vorzulassen

Ernsthaft:

Die erstrangigen Gläubiger verschlechtern dadurch ihre Stellung. Wann mache ich so etwas ?

Natürlich nur dann, wenn ich mehr als sicher bin, dass alles vollkommen nach Plan läuft und ich die Gewißheit habe, meine Tilgung und die Zinsen dauerhaft zu erhalten. Da hier keine kleien Volksbanken als Gläubiger auftreten, kann sich jeder ausrechnen, dass diese Banken mehr als genau über die Ertragslage von Blue Pearl Bescheid wissen.

Dies ist einmal mehr ein Vertrauensbeweis für Blue Pearl und das Management.

Ich bin mehr denn je von der Aktie überzeugt. Die, die lange dabei sind, wissen, dass ich das auch bei 4,80 € gewesen bin.

Nach meiner festen Überzeugung werden die nächsten 8 Wochen vermutlich mit die Besten werden, die man als BPM-Aktionär bislang geniessen durfte.

Herzlichen Glückwunsch allen hier im Thread, die diesen Trend früh genug erkannt und rechtzeitig dabei gewesen sind.

[Firsteven]

Who will roast your molybdenite?
Another basic warning that will become relevant as juniors contemplate putting small high grade molybdenum deposits into production is that molybdenite concentrate must be converted to molybdic oxide before it can be sold to end users. The conversion is accomplished through roasting. Most major molybdenum mines such as Endako have on site roasters or, like Henderson, have operators who own off-site roasters that were permitted and built decades ago when pollution control requirements were less stringent. Some roasters will perform toll processing for molybdenite concentrate from other mines. Endako will roast third party concentrates but prefers it from primary molybdenum mines because it markets a high purity end-product from its own roasted molybdic oxide and does not want to deal with copper contamination. Roasters associated with "pure" moly mines such as Endako will not accept copper by-product concentrates unless the copper content has first been reduced through acid leaching. Phelps Dodge's Fort Madison roaster in Iowa handles Henderson concentrate and does third party processing. It's Green Valley roaster in Arizona handles the by-product concentrate from the nearby Bagdad and Sierrita copper mines. Phelps Dodge's Rotterdam roaster in the Netherlands handles just third party concentrates. Thompson Creek's Langeloth roaster in Pennsylvania handles concentrates from its Thompson Creek moly mine in Idaho as well as third party concentrates. Molymet, which operates roasters in Belgium, Chile and Mexico, is the big third party roaster which handles the by-product concentrates from the big copper mines of Codelco in Chile (Chuquicumata, El Teniente, Salvador and Andina), Southern Peru Copper in Peru (Toquepaia, Cuajone), Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon mine in Utah, and Molycorp's pure moly Questa mine in New Mexico. Most operators of roasters own molybdenum mines that are operating at less than full capacity (50% in 2003) and thus have spare roaster capacity. However, if high molybdenum prices prevail, the same economic rationale that encourages independent parties to develop new molybdenum mines will also encourage outfits like Endako to ramp up production from their own mine and use up the spare roasting capacity. Chinese producers roast their molybdenite in China. There is no quick way to increase roasting capacity. On December 14, 2004 Molymet, the world's biggest processor of molybdenum, announced plans to invest $156 million to boost annual processing output capacity from 100 million lbs to 150 million lbs by expanding two plants in Chile and Belgium. Molymet handles most of the South American copper by-product molybdenite concentrates. The new capacity will not be available until 2007. Reuters quoted Molymet CEO John Graell as predicting that "in the medium term prices were bound to cool down, though they would continue high in 2005 and 2006". Molybdenum resembles uranium in that both are incremental inputs for bigger processes (steel-making and nuclear energy) for which there are limited substitutes and whose cost represents a fraction of the overall cost. Short term demand for molybdenum or uranium is not sensitive to price.
Major Roasters of Molybdenite Concentrates Operator Location Annual Input
Capacity (tonnes) Annual Output
Capacity (lbs) Concentrate Source
Molymet Nos, Chile 43,000 46,000,000 3rd party Cu By-Product
Molymet Cumpas, Mexico 18,500 22,000,000 3rd party Cu By-Product
Molymet Ghent, Belgium 18,500 22,000,000 3rd party Cu By-Product
Phelps Dodge Fort Madison, Iowa ? ? Henderson
Phelps Dodge Green Valley, Arizona ? ? Bagdad, Sierrita
Phelps Dodge Rotterdam, Netherlands ? ? 3rd party
Thompson Creek Endako, BC 10,200 22,000,000 Endako
Thompson Creek Langeloth, Pennsylvania ? 12,000,000 Thompson Creek, 3rd party

[beautifulmind]

Commissioners support land exchange


BY TODD ADAMS

Thompson Creek Mine and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) officials are considering a land exchange that would expand the mine's size and extend its life, perhaps allowing it to continue production 20 years beyond current plans.
The Custer County commissioners February 12, said they strongly support the plan.

Kent Watson, Thompson Creek's vice president and general manager, told the commissioners the mine would be asking for support during the lengthy land exchange process.

The commissioners, BLM and Thompson Creek officials agreed that exchanging public land, south of Thompson Creek's patented mine property for other private land in Custer County or eastern Idaho, would be a win-win situation for the mine, the BLM and Custer County taxpayers.

Watson said BLM officials have been helpful in starting the process, and also in preliminary meetings with Forest Service officials for a possible future land exchange with that agency.

"This almost sounds too good," said Commissioner Cliff Hansen. Hansen added he liked the idea of adding more private land to Custer County's tax base and "I like the eastern Idaho deal."

Dave Rosenkrance, BLM Challis area manager, said the proposal is in a preliminary stage. Such land exchanges used to take up to eight years, but might be streamlined to 3-4 years. "It's not a fast process," he said, especially if threatened and endangered species issues come up. Public notice in the Federal Register and a public comment period will be part of the process.

The BLM stands to benefit by acquiring private property elsewhere for public access, stream or other resource protection, said mine consultant Jerry Bensing. Bensing showed the commissioners a map of the BLM land that Thompson Creek needs to expand its mine and tailings. The exchange would be an equal dollar-for-dollar trade, he said.

A value for the exchange lands would have to be set by an appraiser approved by the BLM, Rosenkrance said. The process will not be cheap for Thompson Creek, he added.

"Let's get it done," said Hansen. "Let's not drag it out until all of us are pushing up daisies."

Commission Chairman Wayne Butts asked Watson what kind of support the mine wanted, such as a letter. Watson said it might be too early for that, as the BLM appraisal process will take a while, but the mine will ask for support in the future.

Butts assured Watson the commissioners would provide it.

"People are very lucky with what's taking place on our tax base," Butts said. The Thompson Creek Mine paid nearly a third of Custer County's tax revenue last year. So now, the mine is the hero, said Butts, but when officials close the mine and taxes increase, they'll become the "bad guys."

Moly future

Thompson Creek Mine has an estimated seven-year life with the reserves now measured, Watson told The Challis Messenger last month, but the known molybdenum resource is greater. The company is now stripping overburden to expose ore reserves for Phase 6 of mining. More moly has been identified and will be mined out in Phase 7 by 2014. Beyond that year, Thompson Creek is planning a Phase 8.

Watson said this week that the land exchange would allow mining to continue into Phase 8, but it's hard to say how many years that might extend the mine's life, as more exploration work is needed to define the resource. Although this is the strongest molybdenum market in history, said Watson, with prices sustained above $25 per pound, the mine's future depends on more than the land exchange, such as the market and ore reserves.

Watson told the commissioners the 4,000-5,000 acre exchange might mean another 10-20 years of mine life, but he told The Messenger there are no guarantees and he doesn't want to raise any false hopes.

The mine's workforce has increased from 250 last year to about 290 workers now. The new employees have allowed both the mill and the mine to run around the clock. The mine has been operating 24/7 for some time. Watson expects Thompson Creek should have about 310 workers on the payroll when the latest round of hiring is completed, probably in March.

With both the mine and mill working round the clock, Thompson Creek will be using up its reserves faster, Watson said, but will also will be doing more development drilling to explore the extent of its local molybdenum resource.

Thompson Creek is taking advantage of the high moly prices by increasing activity. The new mine owner, Toronto-based Blue Pearl Mining, wants to pay down debt as quickly as possible from its $575 million purchase in October of the Thompson Creek Mining Company from Steven Mooney, the previous owner.

The economy

Commissioner Lin Hintze asked Watson if Thompson Creek would be willing to help the county and its cities fund the position of Rene Toman, who serves as executive director of economic development for North Custer and Lemhi counties. Toman's and other economic development positions are largely funded by the state, but those funds may not last much longer, Hintze said.

Watson said it's premature for Thompson Creek to commit to that now, with the mine and local economy expanding.

Hintze asked if the mine has any tool, equipment or supply needs, such as pallets, more of which could be provided by local companies.

Butts said he'd venture to say Thompson Creek would buy locally, as long as such items are available at a competitive price.

Watson agreed, saying, for example, that Thompson Creek has bought pallets from a Salmon company and is always willing to buy local goods and services, if available. Any local company needs to stand on its own, he added.

Butts asked if the Thompson Creek land exchange would affect the plans of Ross Williams, the owner of the old Redbird Mine, to buy BLM land adjacent to Squaw Creek.

Rosenkrance said the BLM has made no decision on either land proposal, but he thought Thompson Creek would be interested in having a competitive bidding process for any land. Watson agreed.



Challismessenger, Idaho
02/15/2007

[ruhtra]

@ all

Ich möchte darauf hinweisen, sofern ihr es noch nicht bemerkt habt, daß ich einen Thread ausschließlich für die FAKTENÜBERSICHT und die SCHLÜSSELBEITRÄGE eingerichtet habe, da diese Übersichten zeitweise schnell im Beitragsdickicht verschwinden und nur mit Zeitaufwand wieder gefunden werden können.

BG ruhtra

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Ab 15 Min.


Tuesday, March 13, 2007 7:00 PM ET

Market Call Tonight

Alternative investment strategies

Jean-Francois Tardif, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management


Sehr positiver Kommentar!

He is very bullish on molybdenum and will be starting a Moly fund for next year. The mineral is in short supply.

[Firsteven]

Makes me happy thinking of all that Moly being used in this 1200 Km Pipeline...KR


Mackenzie pipeline costs jump to $16.2B
Imperial turns up heat for concessions as costs for labour, materials soar

Lisa Schmidt
The Calgary Herald
Tuesday, March 13, 2007

CALGARY - Imperial Oil Ltd. is seeking larger concessions from the federal government after cost estimates of a proposed Arctic natural gas pipeline more than doubled to $16.2 billion.

Soaring prices for labour and materials have sent costs for the Mackenzie Valley pipeline soaring above a 2004 estimate of $7.5 billion, while regulatory delays have helped push the project's start date back three years to 2014.

Imperial said it's proceeding with regulatory approvals currently under way, but said the project's future depends on reaching an agreement with the federal government on a fiscal framework.

"The project is not on hold," said Randy Broiles, a senior vice-president with Imperial, in a conference call yesterday.

"But that said, we will not be starting new field work, new detailed engineering until we've had some sort of indication from the federal government that we have an economic project."

The company and its partners have put forward several alternatives, including faster depreciation rates, tax and royalty breaks and cost-sharing on infrastructure such as roads or airstrips. Imperial said it expects to hear a response from the federal government in the "next several weeks."

Mr. Broiles would not say how much Imperial and its partners are seeking from the federal government, but said it's more than the $1.2 billion in various royalty and tax incentives offered by the former Liberal government.

"The need now is greater," he said. "We expect double-digit returns on this kind of investment. We're not anywhere near that now."

Northern Affairs Minister Jim Prentice, who is in charge of the federal northern pipeline file, said he'll take the proposals to cabinet for discussion in the next few weeks.

"While these cost increases certainly introduce challenges, I continue to think that in a long-term way this project is one of fundamental importance to the country and one that makes sense," he said in Calgary yesterday.

"I would emphasize that this is a private-sector proposal that has been put forward and at the end of the day the project has to make business sense."

The pipeline is seen to be key to unlocking large Arctic gas reserves and is expected to be a catalyst for northern development. The 1,220-kilometre line would run down the Mackenzie Valley into Alberta's natural gas network.

The latest cost estimate includes $7.8 billion for the pipeline, plus $3.5 billion in gathering systems and another $4.9 billion to develop the northern natural gas fields.

The revised costs better reflect the size and scope of the project, but are largely made up of higher expected costs for labour, equipment and materials plaguing many oil and gas projects due to high activity levels in the energy sector, Imperial noted.

"It's not out of line with where projects in the world have been going," said Steven Paget, analyst with FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary.

"When I look at costs for offshore drilling rigs, they've essentially gone up 300 per cent, in some ways, in percentage terms, this is not even that high an increase."

Imperial's partners in the Mackenzie project include Shell Canada, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil Corp., and the Aboriginal Pipeline Group.
http://www.canada. com/ottawacitize n/news/business/ story.html? id=9ce0661e- 149e-4214- 9a10-df9ad622728 6&k=58791

[Firsteven]

Business Newsmaker: Toronto Star:






Mar 15, 2007 04:30 AM

SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC., a Toronto-based money manager overseeing $4.5 billion, mainly in natural resource assets, plans to raise $75 million for a company that will invest in molybdenum, a metal used to make stainless steel.

Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp., registered in Ontario, plans to sell shares next month, Eric Sprott, founder of Sprott, said yesterday.

The business will invest in companies mining the metal as well as in joint ventures in molybdenum properties, he said. It will also invest up to 50 per cent of its capital directly in the metal, Sprott said.

Prices for molybdenum have risen more than fourfold in the past three years as expanding economies in Asia increased demand for metals.

Sprott Asset Management was founded in 2001 by Sprott, who previously ran Sprott Securities Inc.

[Firsteven]

China's Steel Exports Up 139% in 2007

China's Steel Product Exports Rise Nearly 140%
By David Harman
14 Mar 2007 at 08:56 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China exported 8.75 million tonnes steel products in the first two months of this year, an increase of 139.3% from the same period last year, according to statistics released by the General Customs Administration yesterday.

Iron ore imports were up 25% to 64.59 million tonnes in the first two months of the year, February imports stood at 28.74 million tonnes.




China exported 2.21 million tonnes of coke from January to February 2007, up 7.7%.

In February, net exports of steel products rose 8.97% to 3.16 million tonnes, net exports of steel products in January and February were up 628.9% to 6.05 million tonnes.

Steel slab net exports were up 98.15% to 1.07 million tonnes in the first two months.

Commentary

China's domestic steel capacity has geared up to a point where it now relies on exports to sustain industry growth. There have been assurances that exports will be curtailed following U.S. complaints to the WTO. This may be the case for low grade products; however it is clear that the emphasis is on high end product export.

The same trend is emerging in the aluminium industry. The steel product export growth figures sound impressive, and indeed they are, but to put it in perspective, China only became a net exporter of finished steel products in January 2006.



© Interfax-China 2007

This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl warrants expire on March 22


2007-03-14 20:08 ET - Warrants Expire

TSX bulletin 2007-0357

Reference is made to Toronto Stock Exchange bulletin 2005-1163 dated Oct. 13, 2005. The common share purchase warrants expire at 5 p.m. (Toronto time) on March 22, 2007, and will be delisted at the close on March 22, 2007. Each whole warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at 70 cents.


Trade dates Settlement dates

March 19, 2007, March 21, 2007
March 20 and March 21, 2007 Cash next day
March 22, 2007 Cash same day



All trades on March 19, 2007, will be for special settlement on March 21, 2007. These trades will appear on the settlement report with a settlement date of March 21, 2007.
All trades on March 20 and March 21, 2007, will trade for cash settlement the following business day. All trades on March 22, 2007, to noon (Toronto time) will be for cash same-day settlement.
Selling participating organizations must have in their possession the warrants that are being sold or such warrants must be owed to them through clearing, prior to such sale.

[Firsteven]

N I C K E L / S T E E L

PLATTS: China's JDC plans to restart ferromoly production in May

Tokyo (Platts) Mar.15/07

China's largest molybdenum producer Jinduicheng Molybdenum Mining said the company targets to restart production of ferromolybdenum in May this year, a company official told Platts. "We have stopped producing ferromoly production for about one and a half years and at that time our capacity was at about 8,000 mt/year," he said. "We are in the process of building the new production line but we have not been told by the management how big the capacity is going to be. We will disclose more details later." He added: "We want to steadily supply ferromoly to steel plants in China in the future as domestic demand is picking up. And we may do exports too." The JDC official expected that China was to reduce exports of moly-related products due to the expected quotas system that would further restrict exports out from the country. "I expect more smaller ferroalloys producers will have to stop production in the future. So there is a strong need for ferromoly in the local market," he said. Ferromoly demand is increasing outside China on the back of steel mills expanding outputs. Sources in Japan and South Korea, however, said there is a strong tendency for consumers to shift away from China to their local suppliers, to Europe or North American origin materials. Policy changes in China involve a major supply risk, they said.

[Firsteven]

Critical Mineral Impacts on the U.S. Economy
By Jack Lifton
15 Mar 2007 at 02:32 PM GMT-04:00


DETROIT (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Natural resource investors at all financial levels should be aware of an information survey and trend analysis project being carried out at the National Academy of Science (NAS) by its Board of Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR), entitled, "Critical Mineral Impacts on the U.S. Economy."

The project has had two meetings, one in October 2006 and one was last week on March 7-9. A third is scheduled for October of this year, and after which a final report will be issued. I don't know if the full report, or any part of it, will be made public




The last meeting was attended by several members of the congress from both the house and the senate and, interestingly, at least for the individual presentations and the open question and answer sessions that followed, by an accredited member of the Chinese diplomatic corps who is part of the official delegation of China to the United States. Yet the discussions among the members of the various panels and members of the BESR and the National Research Council (NRC), after the presentations, are confidential and not allowed to be disseminated to ordinary citizens of the Unites States as of this point in time.

I think that I actually can understand some of the official logic for keeping the discussions among the presenters, the committee members, and NRC closed to the public. I believe that the NAS thinks that if its invited speakers, academic and industrial members are not allowed and required to keep their conclusions and opinions confidential, among themselves, then they would not be open in their discussions because of the possibility of revealing information that could create a conflict of interest, because it would give competitive advantage or an advantageous financial position to private parties. This is why, for example, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) documents do not reveal details of individual contributions of domestic American mines or end users to the production or consumption of the commodities for which they maintain records.

In the case of "Critical Mineral Impacts on the U.S. Economy," however, this is the wrong way to treat data upon which our nation's economic and military security depends.

The NAS is funded all or in part by the U.S. Federal Government to provide the branches of government with a ready source of explanations and analyses of technical and scientific issues that the government can use to help formulate policy.

The lack of open news coverage and analysis of the meeting also prohibits the free market from functioning efficiently, but this is due more to either myopic or poor judgment on the part of business, political and technical journalists than to any failure or obligation on the part of the NAS to bring this meeting to the public's attention outside of normal public relations or journalistic channels.

Most of the presenters at the meeting represented either mining companies, or governmental departments and agencies both state and federal and, in one case, Japanese, or professional societies involved with metals, or industrial end users.

One interesting presenter was listed as a consultant to the Indium Corporation (of America), a long established private company, and, after his talk, he was asked during the open part of the meeting just what his company was planning to do to ensure its supply of indium raw materials after June 30, of this year.

His answer was that the company didn't know.

Resource Investor readers should know or understand, unlike the attendees at the meeting, why the consultant to the Indium Corporation of America made that statement.

It was announced during the last week that the government agency in the People's Republic of China (PRC) responsible for levying and collecting taxes on the export of commodities had decreed that no mine, chemical producer or recycler of the metals zinc, lead or antimony could any longer export the metal indium in any form unless it first produced a government-set minimum threshold quantity of its primarily produced metal product(s). The individual thresholds for the three types of industries were set so high that, practically, they prohibit the export of indium from China.

In practical terms, since Chinese producers are free to sell indium to those domestic Chinese end-users who do not re-export raw materials, this decision to restrict exports essentially limits production of indium dependent electronic devices such as flat screen television displays and certain types of photo sensitive and photonic devices to companies making the end products in China.

It may well have surprised the attendees at the NAS meeting to find out that there are no primary indium mines in the world. Indium is recovered as a byproduct principally from sphalerite, the principal ore of zinc, the mining and smelting of which in the continental United States has been severely curtailed for "environmental" reasons. In North America, I believe that Canada's Teck Cominco [NYSE:TCK; TSX:TCK-B] is still producing some indium as a byproduct of its Canadian operations and may be producing it in Alaska. China is today, however, by default, the world's main producer of indium.

Typically American financial analysts will say that if the supply of indium is curtailed, but demand is still there, then the increasing price will spark exploration for new mines and reopening of old ones so what's the problem? The problem is that indium is a byproduct mainly from zinc and in order to bring zinc production in America, for example, to the point where we could be domestically self sufficient in indium could only be accomplished by breaking the zinc market; and. even if there were enough commercially recoverable metal and environmentalists would allow this, the zinc market, which is hundreds of times larger than the indium market, would never allow this tail to wag the dog.

Surely the Chinese government representative attendee at the meeting could only have been pleased as he watched American academics, government officials and businessmen realize that their myopia about indium and their lack of either a holistic approach to resource conservation or long term planning had delivered yet another commodity to physical control by and for Chinese government and industry.

Interestingly enough, Indium Corporation, has recently opened an operation in the PRC. Indium Corporation processes crude indium to produce the alloys and chemicals used to make lead-free solders for electronic uses, flat panel television displays and such materials as indium phosphide, which has recently been used to create a new solid state laser-integrated circuit combination that promises ultra fast data transfer. It is, of course, the standard practice in China to not place an export tax on materials that although exported from China are only processed overseas and then re-exported back to China for end-use.

It would be a very good move on the part of the Indium Corporation to do this, process the crude indium in the U.S., for example, and then re-export it back to China for end-use. Of course such indium imports into the U.S., which are for the domestic American market, will be taxed by the PRC resulting in a substantially higher price for American-or any other non-Chinese customer. Such final exports will anyway probably not be allowed under the new tax regime restrictions in the PRC anyway, so the question of increased prices is moot; the material from China will simply not be available to domestic American end users.

Along with indium, China has announced this month that it is imposing a quota upon, and thereby restricting the export of, molybdenum metal and chemical products, such as ferromolybdenum. Molybdenum is a byproduct of copper mining, so that molybdenum typically is obtained from Chinese copper smelters, which use domestic and more and more imported copper ore from places like Africa.

I have written here before how critical molybdenum is to industrial products (see "Molybdenum Myopeia" and "Molybdenum Myopeia pt 2").

But some recent news about the very rare platinum group metal, rhenium, makes the restriction of the molybdenum supply problem even worse. It has been discovered that rhenium can be used in electronic memory devices to dramatically increase their capacity. This has caused a sharp multiplying of the price of rhenium in a very short time.

It is not the fact that your iPod will be able to hold more songs that makes this new property of rhenium so important it is that satellites and military hardware will be able to be "smarter" due to rhenium. They will have more space to hold, not only data, but also more lines of code in the same volume, so that the satellites and controls can be programmed to be more versatile and have more capabilities.

The U.S. Defense Department has a problem with this; rhenium is a byproduct of molybdenum, which is a byproduct mainly of copper but also frequently of gold. He who cuts off or cuts back my molybdenum thus cuts off or cuts back my rhenium.

The U.S. Defense Department is also concerned about certain rare earth metals that are critical to modern electronics, because the world's rare earth metal production is now almost completely concentrated in China.

Next time a commodity analyst talks to you about investing in globally sourced commodities ask him or her how you can analyze the affect of a situation where the commodity required is itself a byproduct of another commodity that has a different agenda for demand.

Perhaps the National Academy of Sciences should look into this, or perhaps, it already has or is doing so now, but the project is closed to the public.

The NAS officially exists to advise the government on the technical aspects of politically sensitive issues. Who advises the NAS about the global political and economic aspects of natural resource supply and demand? Perhaps it would behoove the NAS to invite Wall Street to participate in the next meeting of this committee.

In any case, readers should pay close attention to developments in the domestic supplies of zinc, lead, antimony, gold, and copper, because it is from these metals that we will get our domestic supply of indium, molybdenum, and rhenium as byproducts. *Editors Note...W/ all due respect to Mr Jack Lifton, as always in his writings he neglects the "FACT" that 'Primary Moly' is more valuable than by-product Moly and there are a few large Primary Moly mines to be considered. By-product of Copper mined Moly is not acceptable in the Catalyst and Lubricant or Chemicals portion of Molybdenum demand. Only pure 'Primary' Moly will be used. Nevertheless his points made here are sound and will have a positive impact on Moly prices in future.

[Firsteven]

T H E B I G P I C T U R E:

Strong Chinese industrial production report a mixed blessing

Metals Insider - 15 March 2007

China this morning reported that value-added industrial production rose by 18.5% year-on-year over Jan-Feb 2007. The National Bureau of Statistics combines the assessment for the first two months to smooth out distortions created by the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays.

The headline rate of growth marked an acceleration both from December's 14.7% and the 16.2% recorded in Jan-Feb 2006.

The strength of industrial production in China in the first part of this year will hearten the many bulls in the base metals markets. Continuing strong metals consumption growth in China is a key counter-balance to the current weakness in the US economy, is their argument.

However, they would do well to consider that the growth rate in Chinese IP is maybe too strong, given the Chinese authorities' strategy of trying to engineer a graduated slowdown and a diversification of growth away from "commodity" production towards consumer-oriented value-added goods.

As such the 25.4% growth in steel production and the 23.8% growth in cement production are likely to be twin areas of concern for Beijing, since they imply a re-acceleration of "blind" investment after the spate of measures, both micro and macro, unleashed last year.

The "hard-landing scenario" for China has never gone away, although concern was steadily assuaged by what appeared to be a steady slowing of IP growth over most of 2006.

Key fixed-asset investment figures are due out tomorrow, but in the interim this morning's report has kick-started a debate among analysts as to whether and, more realistically, when China needs to raise interest rates again.

[Firsteven]

von Cuba-Libre!!!

auch noch mal der hinweis auf diese quelle (rory17 aus dem stockhouseboard):


09.03.

Its your last chance to accumulate BLE in the high $8.00 level to low $9.00 level before news is released to break the old high of $10.40. Its gonna get interesting between now and the end of March. Good Luck to all

--------------------------------------------------------------

My sources tell me there is a large block of stock hat will be crossed shortly and the boys would like to it around $9.10 a share. Lets wait and see.

war bekanntl. mit 200k auch so eingetroffen!

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I have never been to Germany. Are you a resident or just visiting.My sources say that a large ( well known)investment company has aquired a 10% plus position in the company for investment purposes. My opinion and research as always. Good luck

---------------------------------------------------------------

14.03.

somethings big is coming. good luck

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15.03.

My sources say a large US based money manager has accumulated close to 15% for investment purposes. When I can verify I will post it. Good luck to you.

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ich würd´s nicht nochmals wiederholen, wenn der gute mann nicht recht gehabt hätte mit der o. g. vorhersage! also kein "übliches" blabla...

[Firsteven]

Toronto mining stocks surging
LEONARD ZEHR AND DAVID PARKINSON
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Investors are all a-twitter about Toronto mining stocks again, as rebounding base-metal commodity prices have breathed new life into the sector. The S&P/TSX capped metal and mining subindex is up 2.4 per cent Thursday, led by high-flyer Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., which is up more than 8 per cent, and hit a new all-time intraday high of $10.54 – more than five times its price of nine months ago. Other big gainers include Aur Resources Inc., up 5.4 per cent; LionOre Mining International Ltd., up 4.6 per cent; and Equinox Minerals Ltd., up 4.6 per cent.
The buying spree was triggered by surging commodity prices: Nickel hit a record high, copper rose to a three-month high and zinc jumped almost 5 per cent in London Thursday. Analysts said the market has been getting support from evidence of continued tight supplies, but said the trigger to the latest surge was the aggressive return of the hedge funds, who were key players in the sector's bull run of the past three years but have been retrenching in recent months.

Blue Pearl mines molybdenum, which is used in making steel and iron alloys. With the bull run of mainstream metals looking increasingly long in the tooth, molybdenum has become an exotic flavour of the month as investors seek to tap less-mined seams of investment opportunity in the sector. After retreating from its previous record high in early January, the stock has caught fire in the past month, jumping almost 50 per cent from its mid-February lows

[beautifulmind]

Canadian Stocks Rally as Loan Concerns Lessen; Barrick Gains

By John Kipphoff

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian stocks advanced for the first time in three days as investors gained confidence that rising mortgage delinquencies won't slow the U.S. economy enough to affect Canada's resource exports.

Shares of materials producers, led by Barrick Gold Corp., climbed as prices of metals including gold rose. Gains were limited after a report showed prices paid by U.S. producers increased more than forecast in February.

``The Canadian resource sector acts more on global demand than on North American demand,'' said Marc Lalonde, who oversees $1.1 billion at Louisbourg Investments Inc. in Moncton, New Brunswick. ``Global economies should continue to grow even if there is a U.S. slowdown. The sub-prime challenges can't be dismissed but they may not be as detrimental as first thought.''

[Firsteven]

von der_duke:


Die Begründung des Herrn Prof. zusammengefasst:
- Moly ist unersätzlich (die Forschung kann es wohl bereits ersetzen, aber der Ersatz ist wesentlich teurer)
- Die Nachfrage steigt schneller als das Angebot
- Die Molyreserven sind 2040 erschöpft
- Es gibt wohl ein Gerücht, wonach Dubai seine Pipelines mit Moly von innen "ausspritzen" will. Dies würde dazu führen, dass die gesamte Produktionsmenge eines Jahres nach Dubai ginge...
- Chinesen....
- Als alter Edelmetallhaudegen hat er den ATH Molypreis (glaub war 1986 o.ä. - bin nimmer sicher) mit der Inflationsrate korrigiert und kommt dann auf einen heutigen Preis von 140$. Er sagt jeder Rohstoff hat sein ATH aus dieser Zeit wieder erreicht, außer Moly.

Bzgl. seiner Kompetenz kann ich nicht sonderlich viel sagen, dafür ging das ganze nicht tief genug. Er machte auf mich den Anschein eines typischen Profs (ich verwende Overhead, dieses neumodische Beamerzeugs lohnt sich für mich nimmer ), welcher aber schon weiss, von was er da spricht. Also mehr bullish für einen Rohstoff kann man nicht mehr sein.....

[The_Newbie]

Hallo Firsteven,

Es sieht gut aus für Moly

China: Moly concentrates continue up
(Ferro Alloys)
Updated: 2007-03-16 10:42
Counter:4

Mar.7th - Ferro Alloys reports that Chinese molybdenum concentrates price rises up by another RMB50/mtu.

The prevailing price during the first two days this week remains at RMB4,100-4,150/mtu. However, the price has been raised by RMB50/mtu with suppliers from Luanchuan offering a price at RMB4200/mtu. Market players report that many concentrates are stored by traders, who are confident of the future market and unwilling to sell their stockpiles .


Sources say the production of ferromolybdenum has badly affected by the shortage of molybdenum concentrates. One ferromolybdenum producer from Huludao indicated that they have stopped production due to failure of raw materials supply, and the similar station has happened for some other factories.

Viele Grüße,
The Newbie

[The_Newbie]

Quelle:

http://www.chinamining.org/News/2007-03-16/1174013100d4096.h…

[Cuba_Libre]

von rory17 (stockhouseboard) in ergänzung zu posting #528

Institutional buyer
My sources say Fidelity has been accumulating BLE for investment purposes. Very positive.

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes...Noble Metals Forum NY June 5/07

Fri Mar 16, 2007 9:25 pm
Speakers for Noble Metals Forum

Ryan's Notes is pleased to announce that Terry Adams of

Adams Metals will present a paper on the moly market at

the Ryan's Notes Noble Metals Forum on June 5 at the New

York Athletic Club in New York City. His talk will be followed

by a panel of new moly producers who will be talking

about their respective projects. Adanac Molybdenum,

Blue Pearl Mining, Idaho General Mines, Moly Mines,

Roca Mines and U.S. Energy will be represented on the

panel. Presentations on columbium and vanadium will follow.

The meeting will conclude with papers on end-use sectors

including stainless steel, catalysts and chemicals. There

are only a few more days left before the early bird rate

expires. To sign up, simply call 914-738-7386 or visit

www.ryansnotes.com/conferences.htm.

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

habe diese Woche wieder einmal Informationen aus dem Edelstahlmarkt erhalten.

Die produzierenden Firmen sind weltweit ausgebucht und es werden immer mehr Stähle mit den neuen Superlegierungen bestellt.

MOLYBDÄN ist bei diesen Legierungen nicht zu ersetzen und diese Art der Stähle ist ebenfalls nicht zu ersetzen und ermöglicht teilweise ganz neue Anwendungen und erzielt bei Turbinen usw. ganz neue Wirkungsgrade.

Die Aussagen aus dem Markt decken sich zu 100% mit der momentanen Preissituation bei Moly. Der Stoff scheint knapp und daher teuer zu sein. Aber was viel wichtiger ist: Der Nickelpreis belastet den Markt wesentlich mehr und Moly ist tatsächlich manchmal eine echte Alternative zu Nickel. So das mit einer Abflachung des Bedarfes an Moly in absehbarer Zeit nicht zu rechnen ist.

Wenn das so weiter geht, dann ist BluePearl am Jahresende sogar schon fast schuldenfrei.

therefore



Da kann ich dir nur zustimmen mit den Schulden. Sollte der Moly-Preis Richtung 40 USD + X gehen, dann wird Blue Pearl m.E. sehr schnell schuldenfrei sein. Das mit den Schulden könnte natürlich noch beschleunigt werden, wenn Sojitz für 25% an Davidson richtig Geld auf den Tisch legen würde!

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
S&P/TSX Composite Best and Worst Performers for the Week: Table

By Kevin Bell

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- The following table shows the best- performing and worst-performing stocks in the Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index for the past week.

BEST PERFORMING

Crystallex International +12% Polyus Gold Co., Russia's biggest gold Corp. (KRY CN, C$3.57) producer, may make a bid for Crystallex,

which is developing a gold mine in

Venezuela, the National Post reported.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. +10% The molybdenum producer said it reached an (BLE CN, C$10.07) agreement to pay $62 million in debt that

had ``an especially high'' interest rate of

10 percent plus the rate its lender

obtained.

Crescent Point Energy +9.3% The Calgary-based trust said net income Trust (CPG-U CN, jumped 79 percent to C$68.9 million ($58.6 C$17.80) million) last year as production climbed 70

percent.

Fairfax Financial +9.1% The financial services company rose for a Holdings Ltd. (FFH CN, third week after it said it had C$256) fourth-quarter net income of $159.1 million

compared with a loss of $308.1 million a

year earlier.

Northgate Minerals Corp. +9% The gold and copper producer rose as the (NGX CN, C$4.24) price of copper increased 8.1 percent this

week and gold prices rose for a second day

today.

WORST PERFORMING

Real Resources Inc. (RER -28% The oil and gas company reported a CN, C$8.80) fourth-quarter net loss of C$4.9 million

($4.2 million) compared with a profit of

C$17.8 million a year earlier. Reserves fell

12 percent.

Highpine Oil & Gas Ltd. -18% The energy company reported a fourth-quarter (HPX CN, C$11.75) net loss of C$5.45 million, or 8 cents a

share, compared with a profit of C$4.86

million, or 11 cents, a year earlier as

prices slipped and costs increased.

First Calgary Petroleums -15% The company said there were no corporate Ltd. (FCP CN, C$4.82) developments to report to explain the

``recent volatility'' in its share price. The

stock has fallen 35 percent since the

beginning of February.

Galleon Energy Inc. (GO/A -11% The energy producer was cut to ``sector CN, C$14.59) perform'' from ``sector outperform'' by

Kristian Schneck, a Calgary-based analyst

with Scotia Capital.

Sobeys Inc. (SBY CN, -11% Canada's second-biggest supermarket chain C$37.75) said profit plunged 27 percent on higher

costs to improve equipment and better train

employees.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kevin Bell in Toronto at [e-mail]

Last Updated: March 16, 2007 17:01 EDT

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl - Gewinnschätzung / KGV / Molybdenum-Price / Kursziel / Vorausschau:

GMP ist in seiner Kaufstudie von folgenden Kennzahlen ausgegangen:

Ebitda 2006e = 91 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis - 24,75 USD
Ebitda 2007e = 357 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 24,75 USD
Ebitda 2008e = 520 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 25 USD

Die Molyförderung ist wie folgt geplant:
2007: 21 Mio Pfund
2008: 27 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 2 Mio aus Davidson) = 29 Mio. Pfund
2009: 29 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 5 Mio aud Davidson) = 34 Mio. Pfund

Ebitda: Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Afa (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization)



Hochrechnung Zinsaufwand für 2007:

Zum Jahresanfang hatte Blue Pearl in etwa 402 Mio. USD Verbindlichkeiten.

Davon 62 Mio. hochverzinslich - Libor + 10%. Diese Tranche wurde in dieser Woche sondergetilgt! Siehe News.
Dadurch spart Blue Pearl 9 Mio. USD Zinsen im Jahr.
Sagen wir mal für 2007 entfallen rd. 2 Mio. Zinsen für die ersten 2-3 Monate.

Die restlichen 340 Mio. USD (First Lien Credit Facility) hat eine Verzinsung von Libor + 4,75% p.a.;
Vierteljährliche Tilgung 18,75 Mio. USD.
Der Libor für 2007 wird durchschnittlich mit 5,4% erwartet. D.h. wir hätten für die 1. Tranche über 340 Mio. USD eine Verzinsung von durchschnittlich 10,15% p.a..

Die Höhe der Kredittilgung an UBS ist wie folgt vorgesehen:
Tilgung 2007: 75 Mio US-Dollar (=18.75 Mio. USD im Quartal)
Tilgung 2008: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2009: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2010: 50 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2011: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2012: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Die Tilgung erfolgt jeweils vierteljährlich zu gleichen Raten.

Zinsaufwand 1. Quartal:
340 Mio. USD x 10,15% für 3 Monate: rd. 8,7 Mio. USD
62 Mio. USD für 3 Monate: rd. 2 Mio. USD (entfällt für die nächsten Quartale wg. Sondertilgung)
Gesamtzinsaufwand 1. Quartal: 10,7 Mio. USD.

Zum Ende des 1. Quartals hat Blue Pearl noch eine Verschuldung von 320 Mio. USD.

Für die nächsten 3 Quartale in 2007 gehe ich von folgenden Zinsaufwand aus:
Verschuldung: 320 Mio. USD. Ich rechne damit das wir mind. die Hälfte noch in 2007 tilgen werden, d.h. rd. 160 Mio. USD für die nächsten 3 Quartale. D.h. 54 Mio. Tilgung im Quartal - anstatt 18,75 Mio. USD.

Für die nächsten 3 Quartale errechnet sich daher folgender Zinsaufwand:
2. Quartal: 8,1 Mio. USD
3. Quartal: 6,7 Mio. USD
4. Quartal: 5,4 Mio. USD.

Somit hätten wir für 2007 einen Zinsaufwand von insgesamt 30,9 Mio. USD - also rd. 31 Mio. USD die jährlich das Ergebnis belasten. Je schneller daher die Verbindlichkeiten zurück geführt werden, desto profitabler wird unsere Blue Pearl.
Es ist daher dem Management wieder sehr hoch anzurechnen, dass sie es geschafft haben, dass das 2. Darlehen welches hochverzinslich ist mit 15,4% p.a. - vorzeitig abgelöst wurde!!! Das kommt wieder alles den Aktionären zu Gute.

In 2008 werden dann die restlichen 160 Mio. USD getilgt. Hier gehe ich von einem Zinssatz von 10,15% p.a. aus und
4 Quartalstilgungen von je 40 Mio. USD.

D.h. für 2008 errechnet sich ein Zinsaufwand zzgl. ersparter Zinsen von 10,2 Mio. USD



Abschreibung:
Abschreibung 2007:
Die Afa lag bei Thompson Creek gem. Zwischenbericht für die ersten 9 Monate in 2006 bei rd. 10,5 Mio. USD. Das wären 3,5 Mio. USD pro Quartal. Jetzt ist ja Blue Pearl noch dazu gekommen.
Die Afa u. Kosten von Blue Pearl sind sehr gering - daher hier keine weitere Betrachtung. Für die ersten 9 Monate hat man einen Verlust von 3 Mio. USD ausgewiesen - das fällt nicht weiter ins Gewicht.

Rechnet man die Afa für 9 Monate auf das Gesamtjahr hoch - so kommt man auf 14 Mio. USD.
Ich gehe in der Berechnung mal von rund 25 Mio. USD für 2007 aus. Man hat ja schließlich - wie Ian auf div. Präsentationen mitteilte - auch noch investiert.

Für 2008 verdoppele ich mal die Afa - da ja auch Davidson in Produktion geht und hier ja auch kräftig investiert werden muss. Also für 2008 - 50 Mio. USD Afa.



Steuern:
GMP-Schätzung: Ebitda 2007e = 357 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 24,75 USD

2007:
357 Mio. USD
abzgl. 25 Mio. Abschreibung
abzgl. 31 Mio. Zinsaufwand
verbleibt ein erwarteter Vorsteuergewinn von 301 Mio. USD.
Was ich im Netz so gefunden habe - werden Unternehmen in Canada mit ca. 35% besteuert.
Abzgl. 35% Steuern verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 195,6 Mio. USD für 2007 - Basis Moly-Preis von 24,75 USD und einer Produktion von 21 Mio. Pfund Moly.
Diese rd. 200 Mio. USD nehme ich dann als Basis für die KGV und Kursziel Berechnung.

2008:
Ebitda 2008e = 520 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 25 USD

520 Mio. USD
abzgl. 50 Mio. Afa
abzgl. 10 Mio. Zinsaufwand
verbleibt ein erwarteter Vorsteuergewinn von 460 Mio. USD.
abzgl. 35% Steuern verbleibt ein Nachsteuergewinn von 299 Mio. USD - Basis Moly Preis 25 USD und eine Produktion von 27-29 Mio. Pfund Moly.
Diese rd. 300 Mio. USD nehme ich dann als Baiss für die KGV und Kurziel-Berechnung.




KGV-Berechnung auf Basis der Nachsteuergewinne für 2007 und 2008 von GMP:

Nachsteuergewinn 2007: 200 Mio. USD
Nachsteuergewinn 2008: 300 Mio. USD

Shares: 103,3 Mio. Stück
Shares (voll verwässert) = 140,1 Mio. Stück.

KGV 2007: 200 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 1,93 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 (erachte ich als niedrig, vorsichtig) x 1,93 USD = 11,58 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 8,68 EUR

Die Betrachtungsweiße voll verwässert lasse ich hier mal weg, da bei voll verwässert Blue Pearl wieder erheblich Gelder zufließen würden die dann wiederum zur Schuldentilgung verwand werden könnten. Die Auswirkungen möchte ich hier nicht auch noch darstellen - das führt zu weit.

KGV 2008: 300 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 2,90 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 2,90 USD = 17,4 USD Kursziel = 13,05 EUR


Diese Zahlen basieren nun auf Moly-Preise von 24-25 USD! Aktuell stehen wir bei 30 USD - Tendenz steigend.

Alternativ-Szenario bei steigendem Moly-Preis:

Was passiert jetzt mit dem Gewinn, wenn der durchschnittliche Moly-Preis für 2007 nicht mehr bei 24,75 USD liegt sondern bei:

30 USD:
Für 2007 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 200 Mio. errechnet. 2007 wird Moly über 21 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 30/35/40 USD etc. ) von 105 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 68 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2007 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 268 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2007: 268 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 2,59 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 2,59 USD = 15,54 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 11,65 EUR


35 USD:
Für 2007 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 200 Mio. errechnet. 2007 wird Moly über 21 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 30/35/40 USD etc. ) von 210 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 136 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2007 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 336 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2007: 336 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 3,25 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 3,25 USD = 19,5 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 14,62 EUR


40 USD:
Für 2007 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 200 Mio. errechnet. 2007 wird Moly über 21 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 30/35/40 USD etc. ) von 315 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 205 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2007 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 505 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2007: 505 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 4,88 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 4,88 USD = 29,28 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 22,00 EUR


Und für 2008 liegt der durschnittliche Moly-Preis nicht bei 25 USD sondern bei

35 USD:
Für 2008 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 300 Mio. errechnet. 2008 wird Moly über ca. (ich setzte mal den Schnitt an) 28 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 35/40/50 USD etc. ) von 280 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 182 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2008 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 482 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2008: 482 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 4,66 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 4,66 USD = 27,96 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 21,00 EUR



40 USD:
Für 2008 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 300 Mio. errechnet. 2008 wird Moly über ca. (ich setzte mal den Schnitt an) 28 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 35/40/50 USD etc. ) von 420 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 273 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2008 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 573 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2008: 573 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 5,54 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 5,54 USD = 33,24 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 25,00 EUR


50 USD:
Für 2008 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 300 Mio. errechnet. 2008 wird Moly über ca. (ich setzte mal den Schnitt an) 28 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 35/40/50 USD etc. ) von 700 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 455 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2008 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 755 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2008: 755 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 7,31 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 7,31 USD = 43,86 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 32,90 EUR



Fazit:

Ich denke ein Moly-Preis von 50 USD sind nicht unrealistisch, da Sprott sonst nicht in den Markt investieren würde - siehe Uran-Preis-Entwicklung und Timing von Sprott.
Die Maxime von Sprott ist:
Investition nur wenn mehrere 100% winken!!! Daher dürfte aus meiner Sicht sogar noch mehr als 50 USD drin sein.

An den o.g. Beispielrechnungen sieht man einmal welche (extremen) Auswirkung der Moly-Preis auf die Kursentwicklung von Blue Pearl haben kann.

Jetzt ist folgendes noch zu bedenken bzw. zu den o.g. Zahlen hinzuzurechnen:

1. Was passiert wenn der Moly-Preis noch stärker als 50 USD steigt?

2. Wie sieht die Kursziel Berechnung aus, wenn wir von den Reserven/Resourcen ausgehen.
Derzeit haben wir Reserven/Resourcen über rd. 1 Mrd. Pfund Moly. Sprott geht von 1,3 Mrd. Pfund aus (wg. Davidson anstatt 288 Mio. Pfund - 588 Mio Pfund - die Wahrheit hierüber werden wir in den nächsten 4 Wochen erfahren).

Gehen wir mal von der Schätzung von Sprott aus: 1,3 Mrd. Pfund x aktueller Moly-Preis 30 USD = Marktwert 39 Mrd. USD.
Bei produzierenden Unternehmen rechnet man 10-25% der Reserven/Resourcen als faire Marktkapitalisierung.
Das würde heißen - vorsichtig berechnet 10% von 39 Mrd. USD = 3,9 Mrd. USD Marktkapitalisierung bzw. 2,92 Mrd. EURO.
Derzeit haben wir eine Marktkapitalisierung von 670 Mio. EUR!!!! 2,9 Mrd. EURO wären fair = Kurziel: 28 EURO.

2 Alternativ-Szenarien:
Die Reserven/Resourcen von TC, Endako sollen ja mächtig ausgeweitet werden (Veröffentlichung Ende April). Experten gehen von einer Verdoppelung aus.
Schätzen wir mal, dass Blue Pearl Ende April über Reserven/Resourcen von rd. 2,5 Mrd. Pfund Moly verfügt.
2,5 Mrd. Pfund x 30 USD = 75 Mrd. USD. 10% davon = 7,5 Mrd. USD bzw. faire Marktkapitalisierung von 5,6 Mrd. EUR = Kursziel 54 EURO!!!

Jetzt steigt aber der Moly-Preis nicht nur auf 30 USD sondern auf 50 USD und die Reserven/Resourcen belaufen sich auf 2,5 Mrd. Pfund: 50 USD je Pfund x 2,5 Mrd. Pfund Moly = Marktwert: 125 Mrd. USD x 10% = 12,5 Mrd. USD = 9,4 Mrd. EUR Marktkapitalisierung = fairer Kurs 91 EUR!!!!


3. An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt (und bei Übernahmen sicherlich auch - Hochrechnung der Gewinne etc.). Für 2009 soll die Produktion inkl. Davidson auf 34 Mio. Pfund gesteigert werden. Das wird die Gewinne nochmals explodieren lassen.

4. Was passiert wenn Ian weitere geniale Deals einfädelt! Das Management,welches genial ist, ist noch gar nicht mit eingepreißt.
Kann die Produktion bei Endako (neue Super-Pit soll entstehen) und Thompson Creek vielleicht noch deutlich ausgeweitet werden??


Eine kleine Veränderung (Moly-Preis-Anstieg, Produktionsausweitung, Ausweitung der Reserven/Resourcen, Beteiligung von Sojitz und vorzeitige Schuldentilgung uvm.) kann (und wird) extreme Auswirkungen auf die Kursziele/Gewinnschätzungen von Blue Pearl haben!!!!

Ein Kursziel (von Blue Pearl) auf Sicht bis Ende 2008 von 50 EUR ist bei einem unterstelltem Moly-Preis von 50 USD - nicht auszuschließen. Es sei denn Blue Pearl wird vorher übernommen - was ich mir nicht wünsche - nur zu einem richtig guten Preis - und dafür wird Ian Mc Donald schon sorgen.

An den verschiedenen Berechnung sieht man eindeutig was für eine Kurschance hier vorhanden ist. Das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis ist einmalig. Das Risiko dürfte mit max. 20-25% nach unten begrenzt sein.
Die Kurschance ist jedoch super - hier sind mehrere 100% (1000%?) möglich.
Der aktuelle Kurs ist derzeit ein Witz. Ich denke aber das wir bis Ende April bzw. bis zum Sommer deutlich fairer bewertet sind als aktuell.
Wenn ihr euch mal das ganze Umfeld anseht und die Fakten wirken laßt, dann werdet ihr feststellen, dass das aktuell weiterhin klarste Kaufkurse sind! Nur meine Meinung.

Keine Gewähr für eventl. Rechenfehler. Dies stellt keine Kaufempfehlung dar.

[Firsteven]

@all

Danke!

@Macoba

Die von Dir als Berechnungsgrundlage herangezogenen Moly-Preise sind für viele derzeit noch unvorstellbar. Aber wir stehen immer noch, wie ich schon öfters hier gesagt habe, erst am Anfang einer großartigen Story.

Ich habe mich jetzt schon so lange mit Molybdenum beschäftigt und so viele Berichte/Kommentare/Artikel davon gelesen, dass ich absolut davon überzeugt bin, dass wir die 50 USD sehen - und eventl. schneller als wir denken.

Wie hat ein BB kürzlich geschrieben: Ein Stahlgigant hat letzte Woche für Moly schon 34-35 USD je Pfund bezahlt! Wahnsinn!!

Unsere/Meine Rückversicherung sind zwei Leute: Einmal Eric Sprott und zum anderen Ian Mc Donald. Beide genial.

Ian hat es schon mit dem Wheaton River Deal bewissen.
Und Eric Sprott mit Uran und seinen Fonds. Eric Sprott hat Guru-Status in Kanada in der Rohstoffszene.

Das Sprott nun die neue Gesellschaft gründet ist für mich der Startschuss für die Molybdenum-Ralley.
Die Gesellschaft sollte in 4 Wochen an der Börse gelistet werden und dann wird Molybdenum vom Markt weg gekauft. Was sind da dann 50 USD. Seht euch nur Uran an (wobei ich diese beiden nicht vergleichen will).
Weiterhin kann Moly nicht vernünftig/kostengünstig durch einen Stoff ersetzt werden.

Sprott hat in seiner Uranium Firma sehr große Uran Mengen für um die 30 USD gekauft. Nun stehen wir bei rd. 90 USD! Nette Performance, oder. Und ein Ende des Urananstieges ist noch nicht abzusehen.

Frage an alle - und überlegt mal logisch:

Glaubt ihr wirklich - Sprott nimmt Geld in die Hand und gründet eine neue Firma (Anlaufkosten bisher von Sprott Asset Management getragen - 4,5 Mio. USD) - kauft Molybdenum über den Markt auf - und spekuliert auf einen Moly-Preis von lediglich 50 USD??
Ich nicht - und davon bin ich absolut überzeugt.

Sprott rechnet mit deutlich höheren Moly-Preisen. 50 USD wären vom aktuellen Niveau keine 100% - dafür nehmen die nicht soviel Geld in die Hand und investieren ihre kostbare Zeit.
Weiterhin scheint Sprott davon auszugehen, dass Moly in den nächsten Jahren sehr gefragt sein wird. Wenn sie es nicht wären - dann würden sie sich einfach mal an ein paar Moly-Firmen beteiligen und gut wärs. Nein, sie machen eine Firma auf und wollen Moly physisch einkaufen!
Das wird die Preise nach oben treiben. Moly ist eben schon knapp. Mit riesigen Produktionsausweitungen wird vor 2010+ nicht gerechnet. Und die Chinesen werden auch ordentlich mit ihrer Besteuerung mit dazu beitragen, dass der Moly Preis nachhaltig weiter steigt.

Nochwas: Die Russen wollen eine Öl-Pipline von Russland nach Bulgarien und Griechenland bauen. Das Spass soll 900 Mio. USD kosten. Die Pipeline Strecke: 280 Km!!! Da wird auch wieder ordentlich Moly benötigt.
Weitere Öl-Pipelines werden folgen bzw. müssen erneuert werden.

Von wo soll der Druck auf den Moly Preis kommen?

[Firsteven]

btw. gerade im programm der invest gefunden:
http://www.messe-stuttgart.de/invest/2007/deutsch/index.htm

Informationen zur Veranstaltung

Titel Molybdän
Veranstalter Value Relations GmbH
Zeit / Raum 16.03.2007, 13:30 - 14:45 Uhr
Themenforum Rohstoffe
Inhalt Einführung durch Prof. Dr. Bocker in den Vortragsblock "Molybdän" mit anschließenden Vorträgen zu Wolfram / Molybdän, Kupfer und Gold
Referent Prof. Dr. Hans Bocker
Firmen:
Thor Mining PLC
Norsemont Mining Inc.
New Cantech Ventures

[Firsteven]

Beitrag von der_duke vom 16.03.2007:

Ich war heute auf der Invest in Stuttgart, wo ein gewisser Herr Prof. Bocker http://www.goldseiten.de/content/diverses/artikel.php?storyi… einen Vortrag bzgl. Moly gehalten hat (u.a.). Dies ist jetzt kein Scherz, er sieht Moly-Preise zwischen 200$-300$ auf uns zukommen. Außerdem ist er Berater von NCV und hat mehrfach BP erwähnt. Diese sei zwar "schlechter" als NCV, aber ebenfalls einer dieser Best-2% Rohstofffirmen.

Nur zur Info...

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

zwischenzeitlich hat auch BluePearl mit dem Molypreis auf 30$ nachgezogen. Scheinbar gibt es unterschiedliche Quellen für den Molypreis.

Wayne hat mir in der Woche seine Quelle genannt. Hier ist seine Antwort auf meine Frage, warum die Molypreisanzeige bei BluePearl noch auf 26$ stand.

Dies ist als Hinweis zu den unterschiedlichen Preisanzeigen zu sehen:

No, I did not forget. I am using a source (Metal Bulletin) for the U.S.
Molybdenum oxide price and that source has not changed its price. As
you can
appreciate, I want to be consistent and use the same source. So, I am
waiting to see if they do change it. The upward price pressure has been
mainly in Europe, so that may be why the U.S.-based price hasn\'t been
changed.

Regards,
Wayne Cheveldayoff

therefore

[Firsteven]

BLUE PEARL MINING - WKN A0F577 - wohl doch eher eine Magnumflasche Sekt!
Leser des Artikels: 840

Die Analysten vom tradersreport haben in ihrer Ausgabe vom 08.03.2007 auf eine charttechnische Pattsituation bei den Aktien der BLUE PEARL MINING (WKN: A0F577 / ISIN: CA09578T1093) hingewiesen. Am gestrigen Tag haben die Aktien die Voraussetzungen für ihr bullishes Chartbild erfüllt. Damit dürfte der Weg für die Aktien frei sein, um die 7,00 € Kursmarke in den nächsten Wochen zu erreichen. Sie sollten somit eine Longposition haben, da ihr Trigger bei 6,25 € auf Schlusskursbasis war.
Die Analysten vom tradersreport würden auf Grund der hohen Volatilität der Aktien Ihre Position mit einem Stoploss von 0,30 € ebenfalls auf Schlusskursbasis absichern. Das erstes Kursziel der Analysten vom tradersreport liegt bei 7,00 €. Danach sollte es recht schnell weiter auf 7,50 € gehen.

[Firsteven]

Aus dem Sprott Dokument von Sedar:

PURPOSE OF THE CORPORATION
Investment Objective and Strategy
The Corporation is an investment holding company created to invest in Molybdenum Assets. The
primary investment objective of the Corporation is to achieve capital appreciation by investing in
securities of private and public companies that explore for, mine and/or process molybdenum and by
investing in, holding, selling and otherwise transacting in Physical Molybdenum.

It is not an investment strategy of the Corporation to actively speculate with regards to short-term changes in molybdenum
prices.

The Corporation's investment mandate will provide investors with several benefits. It will
provide investors with the opportunity to invest in Physical Molybdenum, which is currently unavailable
through an exchange. In addition, it will provide investors with a diversified portfolio of securities of
private and public companies that explore for, mine and/or process molybdenum.


Molybdenum Pricing
Molybdenum is an unhedged metal with no forward markets. The price of molybdenum is primarily
determined by changes in supply and demand, which are, in turn, affected by global economic conditions.
Molybdenum concentrates, both raw and roasted (technical molybdenum oxide), and ferromolybdenum
are sold, largely on a spot basis, by traders and dealers worldwide. Some business is done on the basis of
long-term supply contracts between producers and consumers.
The molybdenum market supply tightened in the first half of 2002 and, consequently, the price of
molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum began to appreciate peaking in mid-2005 at around US$40 per
pound, significantly higher than the historical 5-year and 10-year average price per pound of US$17 and
US$10 respectively, for the period ending February 20, 2007. Currently, molybdenum oxide and
ferromolybdenum prices have stabilized at around US$25 per pound. Factors that have contributed to this
appreciation include strong demand in Western countries, mine closures in China and limited roasting
capacity. Mine production in the Western world, particularly in the United States, Chile and Peru,
increased substantially in 2005 which offset the decline in Chinese output. Nevertheless, global demand
and limited roasting capacity kept supplies tight throughout most of 2005 and 2006.
Future pricing of molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum will depend, in part, on mine capacity in
major producing countries, as well as the development of new copper-molybdenum projects. An
additional issue with regard to global molybdenum supply is the addition of new roasting capacity. The
addition of a new roasting capacity independent of a new mine is not anticipated until 2009. However,
Molibdenos y Metales S.A. (also known as Molymet) is in the process of expanding its plants in Chile
and Belgium on an incremental basis, and may provide some new capacity before the planned completion
date in 2009. It is unlikely that the molybdenum market will return to a state of steady oversupply and
ongoing depressed market conditions.


Major Molybdenum Producers
Approximately 70% of the molybdenum mineral reserves are in the United States and China. The Roskill
Report suggests, however, that most of the Chinese resources would not meet Western feasibility study
criteria. Ten companies account for approximately two-thirds of global molybdenum mine production.
Corporacion Nacional del Cobre de Chile (“Codelco”) in Chile and Phelps Dodge Mining Co. (“Phelps
Dodge”) in the United States are the biggest producers, together accounting for about one-third of world
molybdenum mine production. Blue Pearl (formerly called Thompson Creek Metals Company), along
with Rio Tinto Limited, Grupo Mexico and Jing Dui Cheng and Antofagasta plc, are the other major
molybdenum producers. Future molybdenum production may come from mines currently in the
feasibility or pre-feasibility stages or from new discoveries, which may occur as a result of increased
exploration expenditures during the last few years.
Blue Pearl, Codelco and Phelps Dodge are the only significant mining operations in the West with their
own molybdenum concentrate roasting facilities. As a result, a significant proportion of molybdenum
concentrates are either sold in the raw state or toll-roasted to technical molybdic oxide. In China, roasting
facilities are often integrated into the mining operation. Small roasting plants exist in Armenia, Iran,
Japan, Mongolia, Russia and Uzbekistan.



The Corporation (Sprott) believes the significant increase in demand is due to economic growth in China, as well
as increased demand for stainless steel, chemicals, catalysts and super-alloys in the United States, South
America, Europe and China . The Roskill Report anticipates average annual demand growth rates of 4.2%
to 2010.
On the supply side, Chinese mine production of molybdenum has declined over the past few years. This
lower production has been attributed to mine and roaster closures, which have been ascribed to safety
issues, tax evasion, restructuring and state-imposed power rationing. China has also changed its strategy
and is establishing policies and practices to retain its molybdenum for its own use. In early 2007, the
Chinese government announced that it would launch a license system and may impose quotas on export
of molybdenum as early as March 1, 2007 . China has also introduced export taxes on certain metals
beginning on January 1, 2007. As part of the changes, molybdenum, molybdenum scrap and
molybdenum powder exports are taxed at 15%.
In the Western world, production rates have increased with rising Western demand. Copper mines with
higher grade molybdenum zones have focused on producing from these zones while prices have remained
high. No significant new molybdenum mines are expected to come on-stream in the near future and any
potential molybdenum projects will likely have high capital requirements and require regulatory permits
and approvals. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Phelps Dodge recently announced the possible re-opening
of its Climax molybdenum mine in Colorado, contingent upon completion of a final feasibility study and
obtaining all required operating permits and regulatory approvals.

[Firsteven]

World's Top 12 Molybdenum Miners Ranked by 2006 Production

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a table of the world's largest miners of molybdenum ranked by 2005 and 2006 output, compiled by London-based metals consulting company CRU. The silvery metal, often a byproduct of copper, is used in stainless- steel production. Figures are in millions of pounds.

Ranking 2005 2006
1. Phelps Dodge Corp. 62.3 68.3 + 6
2. Codelco 76.0 62.1 - 13,9
3. Kennecott Utah Copper Corp 34.6 37.0 + 2,4
(Rio Tinto Group)
4. Jinduicheng Molybdenum
Mining* 27.0 28.0 + 1
5. Thompson Creek Metals Co.** 28.9 27.7 - 1,2
6. Grupo Mexico SA 32.7 26.0 - 6,7
7. Antofagasta Plc 19.2 21.6 + 2,4
8. Luoyang Luanchuan
Molybdenum Group Co. 11.0 12.0 + 1
9. Xstrata Plc 5.7 9.0 + 3,3
10. Teck Cominco Ltd. 9.6 7.9 - 1,7
11. Anglo American Plc 4.4 6.9 + 2,5
12. BHP Billiton Ltd. 5.0 5.8 + 0,8

ergibt ein Rückgang von - 4,1 Mio. in 2006 ggü. 2005

*Estimates ** Acquired by Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. in 2006


Halten wir nochmal fest:
Die Nachfrage steigt jedes Jahr um etwa 4%. Letztes Jahr lt. Sprott 4,2%. Es wurde allerdings letztes Jahr von den 12 größten Producern weniger produziert - nämlich 4,1 Mio. Pfund.

Nachfrage pro Jahr - etwa 400 Mio. Pfund.
4% jährliche Steigerung sind 16 Mio. Pfund.
Diese Lücke müßte durch Mehrproduktion geschlossen werden.
Ist aber z.B. letztes Jahr nicht passiert. Stattdessen ist die Produktion von den Top 12 um 4 Mio. Pfund zurück gegangen.

Je mehr Pipelines und Atombunker gebaut/erneuert werden, desto höher wird der Verbrauch.

Wenn jetzt noch Sprott her kommt und vom Markt Moly weg kauft und einfach nur einlagert, dann geht die Schere noch weiter auf.

Sprott hat z.B. physisches Uran im Wert von rd. 155 Mio. USD (Einstandspreis - akt. Marktwert 418 Mio. USD!!!) angeschafft bzw. derzeit auf Lager sitzen.

Würden die das in den nächsten 12 Monaten auch bei Moly investieren - für z.B. durschnittlich 30 USD (ich denke aber das die mehr bezahlen werden), dann wären dass 5,1 Mio. Pfund Moly die dem Markt zusätzlich entzogen werden. Das gibt Druck auf den Preis.

Wir werden also eher Richtung 40 USD laufen als Richtung 20 USD, oder ist da jemand anderer Meinung?

[ruhtra]

Zur verstärk geführten Diskussion um den Rohstoff “Molybdän“
- Eigenschaften u. Einsatzgebiete,
- Vergleich zu Moly-Projekten anderer Explorer
(meint bei Blue Pearl natürlich nur das Davidson-Projekt )
- Preisentwicklung

stelle ich hier einige Folien aus der Präsentation von "Molymines" in den Thread, die nach m.A. einen guten, einprägsamen Überblick geben.

Quelle:
http://www1.molymines.com/documents/4/11/MOL_About_2Page_200…
l] (Stand 24.10.2006)






Anm.: Ian MacDonald sprach auf seiner Präsentation von 80.000 Km

ruhtra" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www1.molymines.com/documents/4/11/MOL_About_2Page_200…
l] (Stand 24.10.2006)






Anm.: Ian MacDonald sprach auf seiner Präsentation von 80.000 Km

ruhtra

[Firsteven]

China to Restrict Molybdenum Exports

By David Harman
12 Mar 2007 at 10:17 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China plans to introduce a quota system for molybdenum product export in order to conserve strategic mineral reserves, an analyst surnamed Yang with the China Metals Information Network Antaike, told Interfax today.

Yang estimated that the quota system will come into effect by either the end of this month or the beginning of April, as the government has not yet finalized quota limits for producers and traders.


In November 2006, RI reported that China had imposed an export duty on molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum of 10%.

China's molybdenum product export is set to decrease by 10% and export permission will only be granted to exporters with an export volume of over 3,000 tonnes in the last three years and traders in at least 1,000 tonnes in the past three years, according to China Nonferrous Metals News. Molybdenum exporters must also have a registered capital of at least RMB 100 million ($12.91 million).

Molybdenum is mainly used as an alloy to strengthen iron and steel, increasing the melting point and enhancing resistance to corrosion. The USGS puts the world moly resources at 19 million tonnes, with China accounting for 8.3 million tonnes.

International molybdenum prices have reached $80 per kilogram, up $20 from before the Spring Festival, while the domestic price has remained relatively low, Yang said.

Ferromolybdenum FOB price is currently $69-$72 per kilogram. In the past 15 years, the price of molybdenum has been as low at $1.82/lb and as high as $40/lb. Today’s price in pounds is about $28/lb.

Molybdenum and related products have obviously seen a massive increase in demand in China over the past few years in line with the growth of the steel industry. Perhaps even more so in the past two years, considering China's increased output of high-end finished steel product and demand from the energy sectors.

China already has export restrictions in place by way of levies on ferromoly and moly-oxide. Nevertheless, with domestic demand showing little sign of peaking, China needs to protect its resources. These additional measures, and the resultant reduction in export forecasts, may further enhance the current bull market.

© Interfax-China 2007

[Firsteven]

Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 28359085 von therefore am 18.03.07 19:02:05
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zitat: ich denke schon, dass man zumindest die hochgradigen Resourcen bei Davidson abbauen will. Die Frage ist nur wann und mit welcher Priorität.

Wenn man jetzt bei Endako eine neue Super-Pit erstellt und damit mehr Moly abbauen kann, als bei Davidson, dann werden sich natürlich die Prioritäten erst einmal verlagern.

Denkbar ist auch, dass man zuerst die Resourcen bei Endako vollständig abbaut und dann mit Mensch und Material weiterzieht.
--------------------------------------------------------

Hallo therefore,

mit Freude lese ich immer deine gehaltvollen Postings hier im Forum. Sehr oft kann ich deinen Gedanken zustimmen (und möchte mich einmal wieder bei dir bedanken). Diesmal gehen unsere Auffassungen, zumindest teilweise, aber mal wieder in unterschiedliche Richtungen:

Dass Endako durch die geplante Produktionssteigerung (Super Pit) eine höhere Priorität bekommt, ist einsichtig.
Dass erst die kompletten Reserven von Endako abgebaut werden, und die Anlagen dann nach Smithers (Davidson) verlegt werden, kann ich mir jedoch nicht vorstellen. Es gibt eine Reihe von Gründen, die dagegen sprechen:

1) Der Konzentrator in Endako liefert eine relativ niedrige Ausbeute von durchschnittlich 78% (75,7%-80% je nach Ausgangsmaterial)(Der Konzentrator in Thompson Creek z.B. liefert etwa 91% Ausbeute). Der Grund wird vermutet in der Anwesenheit von kleinen "Störstoffpartikeln" im Erz (fine grained contaminants). Von der Mischung des Endako-Erzes mit dem Davidson-Erz erhofft man sich eine Erhöhung der Ausbeute. (Quelle: GMP-Analyse).
Wenn dies zutrifft, dann könnte man auf elegante Weise und vollkommen ohne Mehrkosten das Endako-Erz besser ausnutzen, also die produzierte Menge erhöhen.
Dieser Punkt spricht eindeutig für einen parallelen Abbau von Endako und Davidson.
2) Das Davidson-Projekt liegt in einem Gebiet, das aus Sicht von Tourismus- und Umweltschutz-Interessen sensibel ist (Quelle: Artikel aus der Zeitschrift "Interior News" von 6.März 2007). Nach den derzeitigen Plänen soll in Davidson täglich 2000 Tonnen Erz bergmänisch abgebaut werden und somit pro Jahr etwa 5 Mio Pfund Molybdän erzeugt werden. Neben dem Stollenmund sind dazu im wesentlichen nur kleine Gebäude und eine Umladestation nötig. Dieses von der Größe her beschränkte Betriebsgelände soll so angelegt werden, dass es aus der Ferne praktisch nicht sichtbar ist. Die Zufahrt zum Highway soll so gelegt werden, dass der Ort Smithers möglichst wenig beeinträchtigt wird.
Als Angriffspunkt für örtlicher Umweltschutz-Personen bleibt somit eigentlich hauptsächlich noch die Abwasserproblematik und der Transport des Erzes per LKW.
Da eine Bahnlinie direkt an der zukünftigen Mine vorbeiführt, ist der Punkt LKW-Transport also ein vermeidbares Problem (würde evtl. nur die Kosten geringfügig erhöhen und ist ja auch eine der Alternativen, die BPM prüft).
Wenn nun also die komplette Betriebseinrichtung von Endako nach Smithers verlegt werden sollte, dann wären riesige Probleme vorhersehbar. Der Minenbetrieb müsste von 2000 Tonne pro Tag ausgeweitet werden auf mindestens 8000 Tonnen, um die Menge Moly zu liefern, die Endako und Davidson zusammen liefern sollen. Der Konzentrator müsste verlagert werden (Verschärfung des Abwasserproblemes). Den Röster zu verlagern, halte ich für schlichtweg unmöglich, da dieser äußerst problematisch in Bezug auf Umweltgesichtspunkte ist.
Meine persönliche Ansicht: Die Umweltprobleme bei der derzeit geplanten Abbaumenge sind mit etwas gutem Willen von beiden Seiten kurzfristig lösbar. Ein gewichtiger Gesichtspunkt zugunsten von Blue Pearl ist wohl insbesondere das Entstehen neuer Arbeitsplätze (die Smithers-Region soll angeblich eine relativ hohe Arbeitslosenquote haben - ich kann leider keine Quellen abgeben).
So ganz nebenbei: In Endako ist nur einer von 2 Röstern in Betrieb. Der zweite wurde vor Jahren stillgelegt. Ich vermute, dieser könnte ohne allzu große Probleme reaktiviert werden, falls dies aus produktionstechnischen Überlegungen sinnvoll wäre (derzeit nicht nötig - evtl. nach Ausbau der Endako-Kapazität oder späterer Übernahme einer weiteren Mine/Explorer in der Nähe).
3) Die derzeitige Rest-Lebensdauer der Endako-Mine beträgt 6 Jahre. Ich könnte mit vorstellen, dass nach der neuen Studie, trotz höherer Abbaumenge (Super-Pit) die Lebensdauer ganz wesentlich verlängert wird. Sollte Davidson wirklich noch für 10-15 Jahre im Dornröschenschlaf liegen?
Zudem: Ian McDonald hat bei der Präsentation im Februar Pläne geäussert, sobald die Ausweitung der Lebensdauer von Endako feststeht, dort größere Investitionen zu tätigen. Aufgrund vollkommen anderer Abbaumethoden (bergmänisch bei Davidson - Open Pit bei Endako) wären solche Investitionen nur begrenzt sinnvoll, wenn sowieso bald der Minenbetrieb komplett verlagert werden sollte.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

http://www.imoa.bluespark.co.uk/Admin/FileLib/About_Molybden…

[Videomart]

Rhenium

Für diesen Thread erschien mir ein Bericht über das Nebenprodukt Rhenium interessant, welches beim Röstvorgang von Molybdän freigesetzt wird (Quelle: stockhouse-board/"ResourceInvestor"):


"I have written here before how critical molybdenum is to industrial products.

But some recent news about the very rare platinum group metal, rhenium, makes the restriction of the molybdenum supply problem even worse. It has been discovered that rhenium can be used in electronic memory devices to dramatically increase their capacity. This has caused a sharp multiplying of the price of rhenium in a very short time.

It is not the fact that your iPod will be able to hold more songs that makes this new property of rhenium so important it is that satellites and military hardware will be able to be “smarter” due to rhenium. They will have more space to hold, not only data, but also more lines of code in the same volume, so that the satellites and controls can be programmed to be more versatile and have more capabilities.

The U.S. Defense Department has a problem with this; rhenium is a byproduct of molybdenum, which is a byproduct mainly of copper but also frequently of gold. He who cuts off or cuts back my molybdenum thus cuts off or cuts back my rhenium.

The U.S. Defense Department is also concerned about certain rare earth metals that are critical to modern electronics, because the world’s rare earth metal production is now almost completely concentrated in China."

"Rhenium does not occur as the free element in nature. Rhenium is found as minor components in the mineral gadolinite, which contains beryllium, and molybdenite, which contains molybdenum. In practice, it is extracted commonly as a byproduct from molybdenum smelter flue dust.Oh, and by the way, Rhenium is US$6000 per Troy ounce. "

[Videomart]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.374.723 von Videomart am 19.03.07 17:25:59

zu Rhenium:

Da der gesamte US-Umsatz mit Rhenium 2006 nur 46 Millionen US$ ausmachte, wird sich hier für BPM kein größeres Geschäftsfeld ergeben.

[Firsteven]

Von unserem Insider aus dem Stockhouse Board:

Posted By: rory17
Post Time: 3/19/2007 15:58

Hello there in Germany. Stay tuned as I expect an independent announcement from a very large and well known money manager who have accumulated a large postion in Blue Pearl for investment purpose. They average hold period is 2-3 years and they look for a minimum of 2.5 to 3 times return on investment. BLE is at $10.75, their intial targte is $20.00 plus . Good luck

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


ab 16 Min. 25 Sec.

Monday, March 19, 2007 7:00 PM ET
Market Call Tonight
North American Equities
Kyle McKay, portfolio manager, Leeward Hedge Funds


Urteil: B U Y
von: Kyle McKay
Kommentar:
Pure play on molybdenum and has done very well. Kicking off a tremendous amount of cash flow, which will be used to pay down debt.
vom: 2007-03-19

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.381.953 von Firsteven am 20.03.07 06:28:13

kann ja auch vielleicht mal einer bei Stockhouse reinstellen mit dem BUY bei BNN - bei mir hats leider heute Morgen nicht funktioniert.

Nach dem Kaufurteil dürften wir heute weiter steigen!!!

[allesaufblau]

Bezüglich der Bewertung von Blue Pearl sollte man die Wechselkursrisiken nicht ausser acht lassen. Der starke und im Augenblick noch stärker werdende kanadische Dollar hat dem deutschen Anleger, der schon längere Zeit dabei ist, schon beachtliche Prozente gekostet. Es gab im Hauptthread vor einigen Monaten ein Posting, in dem ein eleganter Weg zur Absicherung vorgestellt wurde. Kann das nochmal einer reinstellen (habe jetzt leider nicht die Zeit, 90000 postings zu lesen, um das wiederzufinden...). Könnte sein, dass das von Chartex war ?

[emmischmied]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.382.219 von allesaufblau am 20.03.07 08:07:15

der kanadische dollar schwächelt...

[allesaufblau]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.382.898 von emmischmied am 20.03.07 09:12:20

hm, sry, natürlich...das Problem ist trotzdem existent ;-)

[boffe]

Die aktuelle "Project discription" der Davidson Mine, Update Feb.2007:

http://www.eao.gov.bc.ca/epic/output/documents/p262/11725280…

Gruss Boffe

[eyeworker]

Hier nochmal die Info von schnucksche bzgl. der Veröffentlichung der Q4-Zahlen:

Ich habe gerade eine mail von Wayne erhalten.
Die Ergebnisse sollen schon am Mittwoch, 21.03.2007 nach Börsenschluß bekannt gegeben werden, am Donnerstag ist um 10 Uhr kanadischer Zeit ein conference call.

Das ist doch mal eine gute Nachricht.


Gruss, eye

[florie78]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.382.898 von emmischmied am 20.03.07 09:12:20

außerdem muss irgendwann ja auch mal gut sein mit der aufwertung des EUR, bzw. der abwertung des CAD. betrachtet man die wechselkursentwicklung seit einführung des EUR, so stellt man fest, dass der kurs immer im bereich von 1,3 (EUR/CAD) (2001, 2002, 2006) bis 1,7 (2000, 2003, 2004, 2005) geschwankt hat. von daher ist das weitere gefahrenpotential hinsichtlich des wechselkurses (hoffentlich) vernachlässigbar.

[Firsteven]

20.03.2007 - 12:10 Uhr
Weltrohstahlproduktion im Februar um 8,6% gestiegen
BRÜSSEL (Dow Jones)--Die Rohstahlproduktion der 66 an das International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) berichtenden Länder hat sich im Februar gegenüber dem gleichen Vorjahresmonat um 8,6% auf 99 Mio t erhöht. Die Länder, deren Kreis sich im Januar durch den Zutritt von Bosnien-Herzegowina und Mazedonien erweitert hat, repräsentieren mehr als 98% der Weltrohstahlerzeugung. Im Berichtsmonat hat China seinen Output um 20,1% auf 36,1 Mio t erhöht. In Japan nahm die Rohstahlproduktion um 3,6% auf 9,2 Mio t und in Südkorea um 0,2% auf 3,7 Mio t zu, wie das IISI weiter mitteilte. In Deutschland ergab sich ein Zuwachs um 3,1% auf 3,8 Mio t, in Frankreich um 0,2% auf 1,7 Mio t und in Großbritannien um 9,3% auf 1,2 Mio t. Brasilien hat seinen Output um 17,6% auf 2,5 Mio t ausgeweitet. Die türkische Stahlerzeugung wuchs um 14,6% auf 1,9 Mio t. Im übrigen Europa legte die Produktion um 14,8% auf 2,3 Mio t zu. Um 8% auf 7,1 Mio t hat sich dagegen das Rohstahlaufkommen der USA verringert. DJG/bdz/20.3.2007

[Firsteven]

Es kann verschiedene Gründe für die Verschiebung geben.

Gestern hat Wayne per mail angekündigt, dass die Zahlen am 21.03.07 veröffentlicht werden. Der Conference Call sollte am Donnerstag stattfinden.

Er hat darauf hingewiesen, dass dies "nach derzeitigen Planungen" so ist.

Es muß insoweit etwas dazwischen gekommen sein.

Dies kann unter Umständen etwas ganz banales sein, vielleicht ist jedoch im Laufe des Tages auch die Ressourcenschätzung zu Davidson eingetroffen, vielleicht auch nicht.

Nun, da ich keine Spekulationen liebe, habe ich mit Wayne telefoniert und ihn gebeten, mir seine Antwort auch per mail zuzleiten. Diese ist angehängt. Insoweit dürften die Spekulationen beendet sein.

Viele Grüße
schnucksche

It is just taking us longer to finalize the financial statements than we thought it would. We had thought we could finish by March 21 but it is the first time reporting all the operations together and it is the first time with the new audit firm. It is taking the accountants longer than we expected to sort out everything and for their auditors to do their reviews. Such delay is not uncommon with companies that have taken over new businesses.



Wayne

[ruhtra]

Stand: 21. März 2007


Anm.: Auswirkungen (Hebel) auf die Einnahmenseite von Blue Pearl siehe Beitrag von Firsteven unter http://www.wallstreetonline.de/informer/community/thread.htm…!!!

Folgender Text soll einen Überblick über die aktuellen Fakten zu Blue Pearl geben. Ich habe die Details aus Beiträgen von verschiedenen Usern im Bewertungsthread u. Hauptthread übernommen. Namen und Beiträge finden sich unter “Schlüsselbeiträge 1“ (Thread: "Faktenübersicht u. Schlüsselbeiträge").

Hinweis für Einsteiger u. Wißbegierige
Ausführliche Erläuterungen rund um den Rohstoff “Molybdän“, sowie Begriffsbestimmungen (“Ressourcen“ u. “Reserven“, KGV, Optionen/Warrants u.m.) finden sich unter “Schlüsselbeiträge 1+2“!



Nach telefon. Kontaktaufnahme erhielt schnucksche von Wayne Cheveldayoff eine eMail mit folgender Stellungnahme zur Terminverschiebung (sinngemäß übersetzt):
„Es dauert länger als wir dachten, die Jahresabschlüsse fertig zu stellen. Wir hatten gedacht, dass wir es bis 21. März schaffen werden, aber es ist das erste Mal, das von allen Geschäftsbereichen berichtet werden soll, und es ist das erste Mal mit einer neuen Wirtschaftprüfungsfirma. Die Buchhalter benötigen mehr Zeit als erwartet, damit ihre Wirtschaftsprüfer die Überprüfungen durchführen können. Derartige Verzögerungen sind nicht ungewöhnlich bei Gesellschaften im neuen Geschäftsbereich!“
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…


Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman von Blue Pearl Mining am
8. Februar 2007 bei einer Online-Präsentation (informedinvestors.com)
http://www.informedinvestors.com/IIF/IIF_Forum.asp?ForumID=1…
http://www.bluepearl.ca/s/Home.asp

Geplante Produktion 2009 = 35 Millionen Pfund Moly



In den nächsten Monaten sollen neue Ressourcenschätzungen für Endako und TC präsentiert werden! Die Aufträge für die Neukalkulation wurden vergeben.
Es ist anzunehmen, dass die Ressourcen deutlich ausgeweitet werden können, da die damalige Kalkulation von sehr niedrigen Molybdänpreisen (3,50 $ Endako bzw. 5 $/Pfund bei Thompson Creek) ausgegangen war.

Endako (förd. Tagebau-Mine u. Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
Endako wurde 1965 gebaut, 1997 von Thompson Creek (TC) gekauft u. im September 2006 an BPM verkauft (Kaufpreis 575 Mio USD – bezahlt im Oktober 2006). 75% gehören BPM u. 25% gehören Sojitz, einer großen japanischen Handelsgesellschaft.
Sojitz ist gleichzeitig Verkaufsagent für Japan und Teile von Asien.
Die Rohstoffe der Endako-Mine reichen für einen weiteren Abbau von 7 Jahren.
Die Berechnungen wurden sehr konservativ bei einem Moly-Preis von 3,50 $ durchgeführt. Die Reserven sollen bis zum 2. Quartal 2007 ebenfalls ganz erheblich ausgeweitet werden.
2007 werden 12,5 Mio Pfund produziert. BPM erhält davon 75%.

Thompson Creek (förd. Tagebau-Mine)
Thompson Creek hatte 2005 (Geschäftsjahr endet im September) insgesamt 845 Mio $ Erlöse. In 2006 waren es 805 Mio (Anm.: Jahreszahl 2006 ergänzt.
Erlöse sind nicht Gewinn - es gehen noch Kosten und evtl. Steuern ab). Alle Angaben in USD. Die durchschnittlichen Produktionskosten betrugen etwa 4,50$ pro Pfund (etwas unterschiedlich je nach Jahr).

Die Thompson-Creek-Mine ist das Juwel des Unternehmens.
Sie wurde 1983 von Standart Oil gebaut zum Preis von 350 Mio $. Um diese Mine heute so aufzubauen, wäre ein Kapital von mehr als 1 Milliarde $ erforderlich.
Sie ist weltweit die zweitgrößte Moly-Tagebau-Mine
Die derzeit nachgewiesenen Rohstoffe reichen für eine weiteren Abbau von 10 Jahren. Diese letzte Berechnung wurde bei einem Moly-Preisniveau von 5$ durchgeführt. Es ist die Aufgabe des Managements, ausgehend von einem Preis von 10$ eine neue Berechnung anzustellen und die nachgewiesenen und wirtschaftlich abbaubaren Rohstoffe entsprechend auszuweiten.
Anm.: Bei einem Moly-Preis von 5$ ist es nur begrenzt sinnvoll, große Mengen an taubem Gestein zu entfernen, um an die tiefer gelegenen Moly-Vorräte zu kommen. Bei einem Moly-Preis von 10$ (oder natürlich mehr) kann man viel mehr taubes Gestein wegräumen (also zusätzliche Kosten in Kauf nehmen) ohne in die Verlustzone zu gelangen. Die mit Gewinn abbaubaren Moly-Vorräte können zu diesem höheren Preis ganz erheblich ausgeweitet werden (siehe auch die sehr aufschlußreiche Grafik aus der Präsentation im ersten Posting im Präsentations-Thread.

Die neuen, höheren Werte sollen bis zum 2. Quartal 2007 ausgewiesen sein.
170 Mio Pounds Reserven
370 Mio Pounds Ressources
420 Mio Pounds inferred (vermutet/abgeleitet)
Es werden täglich 30.000 t abgebaut.
Für 2008 ist eine drastische Erhöhung auf 50.000 Tonnen pro Tag vorgesehen.

Davidson-Projekt (geplante Untertage-Mine)
Größtes Molybdänprojekt der Welt, welches noch nicht in Produktion ist!
Das Davidson-Projekt ist die größte Moly-Lagerstätte in Kanada.
Die Feasibility-Studie soll bis Ende April 2007 erscheinen. Aufgrund des hohen Zeitaufwandes für die TC-Übernahme sind diese Arbeiten etwas in Rückstand geraten.
Anm.: T. = Letzte Aussage von Ian MacDonald!

Es sollen aus dem hochgradigen Teil der Lagerstätte 2000 t pro Tag abgebaut werden und nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung geschafft werden. Der Transport soll nicht auf der Schiene sondern mit LKW erfolgen, da dies kostengünstiger ist.
In Davidson wird Moly mit einer Konzentration von 0,36 - 0,38% abgebaut werden. Dies ist weltweit die höchste Konzentration. Die zweitgrößte Konzentration hat derzeit die Henderson-Mine mit 0,28%.

Topgehalte vom Davidson-Projekt (Anm.: eingefügt!)
03.02.2006: 48.8 metres grading 0.46% MoS2
28.02.2006: 0.47% MoS2 over 39.6 metres
12.04.2006: 12.2-metre intersection grading 0.797% MoS2.
15.06.2006:
122-metre intersection grading 0.670% MoS2
15.3 metres grading 1.920% MoS2 (unglaublich)
15.2 metres grading 1.262% MoS2
137.2-metre intercept grading 0.521% MoS2

Anm.: Wir haben also seit Juni 2006 keine neuen Bohrergebnisse mehr über das Davidson-Projekt bekommen, da ja auf die FS - welche im Okt/Nov. 2006 erscheinen sollte - verwiesen wurde, insoweit kann man davon ausgehen, dass diese weiteren Ergebnisse im Rahmend der FS berücksichtigt werden. Lt. Auskunft der IR-Abteilung wird weiterhin gebohrt!

Kostenkalkulation für das Davidson-Projekt:
Das Erz muss nur aus dem Berg geholt und nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung gebracht werden. Von der Kostenseite her sind die Aufwendungen daher eher als gering anzusehen. Ian McDonald kalkuliert hierfür Kosten in einer zweistelligen Millionenhöhe (lt. GMP ca. 55 Mio) ein.
Anm.: Somit ist eine wichtige Frage geklärt, wie es finanziert wird, Davidson in Produktion zu bringen. Dieser überschaubare Betrag kann aus den laufenden Einnahmen bestritten werden. Nochmals zu Erinnerung: BPM verdient am Tag knapp 1 Mio US-Dollar!

Langeloth - Metallurgical Facility (Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
Langeloth verarbeitet 35 Mio Pfund Moly pro Jahr.
Die halbe Kapazität wird für die eigene Minenproduktion verwendet. Mit der anderen Hälfte wird für andere Minengesellschaften (Fremdröstung) geröstet. Zusätzlich kauft BPM am Markt Moly auf zur Weiterverarbeitung und es wird auch Moly-Recycling durchgeführt. Diese zusätzliche Auslastung hilft, die eigenen Produktionskosten pro Pfund zu senken.

Langeloth produziert das weltweit beste Ferro-Molybdän.

BPM ist der größte Moly-Produzent in den USA.

Das beste Molybdän (1/3 der Weltproduktion) kommt von reinen Moly-Herstellern
Anm.: also nicht als Abfallprodukt der Kupfer-Produktion..
Davon gibt es 4 in Amerika - BPM gehören 2 davon.

Es gibt 5 Röster in Nordamerika - BPM gehören 2 davon.
Aufgrund der hohen Moly-Qualität kann BPM auf den Marktpreis einen Aufschlag von 2-3% verlangen.

Langeloth wurde 1924 gebaut. Es befindet sich in ausgezeichnetem Zustand, da jeden September für 3 Wochen die Produktion für eine Generalüberholung unterbrochen wird. Es ist wahnsinnig schwierig eine derartige Verarbeitungsanlage neu genehmigt zu bekommen.

Blue Pearl produziert 5 % u. verarbeitet 9 % der Weltnachfrage!!!
Häufigste Nutzung: Pipelines (80.000 weitere km sind weltweit geplant), Autos und “Rostfreier Stahl“.

Die Errichtung einer neuen Mine bis Produktionsbeginn kostet ca. 500 Mio Dollar. Dadurch ist es für neue Unternehmen extrem schwierig, überhaupt bis zum Stadium der Produktion zu kommen. Anm.: Blue Pearl hat mit der Übernahme von TC im September 2006 auf elegante Weise diese Klippe umschifft!

BPM hat derzeit ein Arbeitskapital von über 200 Mio Dollar!!!
Um die Finanzen des Unternehmens ist es also sehr gut bestellt.
Kreditraten (Restdarlehen ca. 400 Mio) können problemlos bezahlt werden.
Anm.: Ian MacDonalds Aussage ist bereits einen Monat später überholt: Restdarlehen ca. 320 Mio $.

Die Ressourcen sind “very large“, sollen also erheblich ausgeweitet werden und werden in den nächsten Monaten erscheinen!


Ian McDonald stellt fest:
Wir sind in einer sehr starken Position u. eines der führenden Unternehmen in der Industrie.


GMP-ANALYSE (wesentliche Aussagen) vom 13.02.2007

Die Aktie wird als BUY (kaufen) eingestuft
Kursziel = 11,50 CAD

Gewinn (Ebitda ) 2006e = 91 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda ) 2007e = 357 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda ) 2008e = 520 Mio USD

Molybdänpreis 2006 = 24,75 USD
Molybdänpreis 2007e = 24,75 USD
Molybdänpreis 2008e = 25,00 USD

Arbeitskapital = 200 Mio USD
Netto-Schulden = 312 Mio USD

Der Moly-Markt ist derzeit ausgeglichen.
Es wird erwartet, dass dies zumindest bis 2009 so bleibt.

Es wird erwartet, dass BPM nach derzeitigem Stand bis 2009 die Schulden komplett zurückzahlen wird.
Anm.: Die Entwicklung des Moly-Preises lässt erwarten, dass die Tilgung bereits vorher abgeschlossen wird!

BPM ist ein einzigartiges Unternehmen, das vollkommen unterbewertet ist und von Analysten kaum verfolgt wird. Es ist signifikantes Potenzial zur Steigerung des Cash-Flow und der Finanzkraft vorhanden.

BPM hat sehr gutes Potenzial Cash-flow zu erzeugen.
Diese Beurteilung wird auch unterstützt durch die Tatsache, dass dem früheren Eigentümer von Thompson Creek bereits die Summe von 62 Mio Dollar aus den Einnahmen der letzten 9 Wochen des Jahres 2006 bezahlt werden konnten !!!

Gestützt auf unsere Vorhersage des Molybdänpreises, erwarten wir, dass BPM mehr als genügend Geld erwirtschaftet, um die insgesamt 125 Mio Dollar Kontingentzahlung (Anm.: Nachträglicher Kaufpreis wird fällig, wenn der Molypreis in den Jahren 2008 bis 2010 entsprechend über 15 Dollar bleibt) zu bestreiten, und leicht die vorhandenen Schulden in Höhe von netto 312 Mio Dollar bis 2009 zu tilgen (Anm.: lt. Bedingungen Schuldentilgung eig. erst bis 2011 bzw. 2013).

Weiterhin erwarten wir, dass BPM die Errichtung der Davidson-Mine (Kosten ca. 55 Mio Dollar) aus den laufenden Einnahmen bezahlen kann.

Mit der Aussicht, aus der Ausübung von Warrants weitere 200 Mio Dollar einzunehmen, könnten die Schulden bereits vor Ende 2009 abbezahlt werden.


Der erwartete “NEWSFLOW“

Geprüfter Quartalsbericht für Q4/06: Bekanntgabe am 26. März 2007 nach Börsenschluß in Canada!!!

Ressourcenbericht Davidson (1. Teil der FS) im 1. Quartal 2007.

Machbarkeitsstudie “FS“ (Feasibility-Study) Davidson bis Ende April 2007.

Geprüfter Quartalsbericht für Q1/07 am 10. oder 11. Mai 2007.

Mögliche Beteiligung von Sojitz an TC oder Davidson (cashflow).

Weitere Einschätzungen (Coverage) von Investmenthäusern.


RAHMENDATEN
Shares (voll verwässert) = 140.074.975
Arbeitskapital = 190 Mio $
Schulden = ca. 320 Mio $ (von 402 auf unter 320 Mio $ in 5 Monaten!!!)
Marktkapitalisierung (MK) = derzeit ca. 1.281 Mio CAD (Stand: 15.02.2007)
KGV = im niedrigen einstelligen Bereich
GEWINN = Blue Pearl generiert TÄGLICH 1 Mio USD
Reserven/Ressourcen (Annahme Sprott) = ca. 25 Mrd. USD

BESITZ bzw. BESITZANTEILE
Endako-Mine = 75 %
Thomspon Creek-Mine = 100 %
Langeloth = 100 %
Davidson-Vorkommen = 100 %


VERSCHIEDENES

Das Anlagevermögen ist in einem guten Zustand, da permanent investiert wird.

Die Reserven von Blue Pearl betragen v o r den neuen Schätzungen 742 Mio Pfund (incl. 246 Mio Pfund nachgewiesene u. vermutete Reserven).

Die Molyförderung ist wie folgt geplant:
2007: 21 Mio Pfund
2008: 27 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 2 Mio aus Davidson)
2009: 29 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 5 Mio aud Davidson)

Es ist auch zu berücksichtigen, dass ca. 8 Mio Pfund verkaufsfertig auf Lager lagen.
Bis zum Jahresende 2006 wurde nichts aus dem Lagerbestand verkauft.
Mit der Bekanntgabe des Quartalsergebnisses Q1/2007 am 10. oder 11. Mai werden die Bestandsdaten veröffentlicht. Der Verkauf wird mehr als einen Ausgleich für den Produktionsrückgang von 26 auf 21 Mio Pfund in 2007 darstellen!

Die UBS, eine der weltweit größten Banken, gewährte BPM zur Übernahme von TC einen Kredit über knapp 500 Mio CAD. Anm.: 30 UBS-Mitarbeiter haben den Deal und den Kredit bearbeitet und geprüft!).

Die Sojitz-Gruppe (japan. Handelsgesellschaft, die 25% an Endako hält) als Partner für den asiatischen Raum.

Sprott (kanad. Investmenthaus) hat sich schon vor der TC-Übernahme im Sept. 20006 mit 13% an Blue Pearl beteiligt!

Sprott bereitet einen Moly-Fonds mit einem Grundkapital von 75 Mio CAD vor (Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation), der bereits im April an der Toronto Stock Exchange gelistet werden soll. Investiert wird in das Metall selber (bis zu 50%), sowie in Aktien von Moly-Explorern und Produzenten. Als Berater wird Blue Pearl fungieren! Des Weiteren sollen Kauf u. Verkauf durch BPM erfolgen.!!!
Anm.: Sprotts Uran-Fonds (aufgelegt 2005) hält 4,2 Mio Pfund U380. Durchschnittlicher Kaufpreis lag bei 32 USD – aktuell notiert Uran bei ca. 90 USD!

Sprott sieht für Blue Pearl bei einer möglichen Verdopplung der Reserven u. Minenlaufzeiten und bei einem Moly-Preis über 20 USD ein Kursziel von 28 CAD!!!

17.6% aller Blue Pearl-Aktien sind in den Händen von 13 institutionellen Anlegern (Stand 15.02.07). Das Management hält 4% (unter Einbeziehung der Warrants 6%) der Blue Pearl- Aktien.

Indexaufnahme: Amex-Listing (USA) ist in den nächsten Monaten angestrebt.

Kein politisches Risiko: Projekte/Minen ausschließlich in USA/Kanada.

Blue Pearl hat nicht nur die Ressourcen u. Röstkapazitäten von TC übernommen, sondern auch erfahrene Mitarbeiter, die z.Zt. in der gesamten Minenindustrie sehr rar sind.


KREDITTILGUNG

Die Höhe der Kredittilgung an UBS ist wie folgt vorgesehen:
Tilgung 2007: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2008: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2009: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2010: 50 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2011: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2012: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Die Tilgung erfolgt jeweils vierteljährlich zu gleichen Raten.

Somit sind in 2007 jeweils vierteljährl. 18,75 Mio US-Dollar an Tilgung zu bezahlen.
Infos zum Zinssatz auf www.sedar.com unter “material documents“ vom 06.11.2006.

Blue Pearl zahlt 62 Mio Dollar Kreditschulden für die Thompson-Creek-Übernahme vorzeitig zurück (März 2007).


WICHTIGE INFORMATIONSQUELLEN

http://www.bluepearl.ca (Homepage)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/pres_02-07/slide1.htm (Präsentation)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/Factsheet-Feb21-2007.pdf (Ressourcenübersicht) http://www.eao.gov.bc.ca/epic/output/documents/p262/11725280…
(Davidson 02/2007 – Umweltbehörde)
http://www.molyseek.com
http://www.imoa.info
http://www.findarticles.com
http://www.adanacmoly.com (Moly-Tageschart)
http://www1.molymines.com/documents/4/11/MOL_About_2Page_200… (Grafik Explorer-Vergleich Seite 32)
http://www.sedar.com
http://www.stockwatch.com
http://www.stockhouse.com
http://www.ccnmatthews.com
http://www.canadianinsider.com
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/
http://www.robtv.com
http://www.basemetals.com/search.aspx?search=molybdenum
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7011
http://www.damstahl.dk/Admin/Public/Download.aspx?file=Files… (Moly-Bericht)
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=22727
http://www.kaiserbottomfish.com/s/Expresses.asp?ReportID=96 (Moly-Produktion)
http://www.cim.org/committees/stdsapprnov14.pdf (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/molybdenum/… (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://www.cim.org/mainEn.cfm
http://www.infomine.com/Investment/HistoricalCharts/ShowChar… (Moly-Charts)
http://www.gcitrading.com/german/converter.htm (RT-Währungsrechner)


Hinweis auf anstehendes Meeting/Veranstaltung/Aktion/Bericht

Am 26. März 2007 nach Börsenschluß in Canada erfolgt die Bekanntgabe der Jahreszahlen für 2006 (einschließlich der Zahlen nach Übernahme von TC Ende Oktober 2006)

Am 27. März findet ab 15.00 Uhr MEZ eine Telefon-Konferenz mit Investoren statt.

Am 10. Mai 2007 findet die Hauptversammlung (HV) von BPM statt:
Evtl. erfolgt hier der Beschluß über eine angedachte Namensänderung der Gesellschaft in “Thompson Creek Mining“.



Es gilt wie immer: Dies ist keine Kaufempfehlung.

BG ruhtra

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes Mar. 20/07

Quiet moly market doesn't affect prices
The moly market has been quiet, but bullish traders point out that prices have not softened much in the slow business environment. Most traders believe that the only direction prices can go is up. They point out that material is extremely tight. There are persistent rumors concerning production bottlenecks in Chile. With only anecdotal evidence, traders say that Chilean oxide output has been less than expected not because of mining problems but because of a backup at the roasters. At the same time, shipments from China are limited. China could be stockpiling material, in which case, there is the potential for a surge in exports from China undermining prices. Most sources doubt this is the case. They say it is more likely that Chinese producers are shipping material out of China prior to import quotas going into effect. "In the short-term there could be a lot of Chinese material available," said a trader, "but in the long-term, I'm pretty positive on prices going up." Very few US traders are willing to risk purchasing FeMo from China unless the material is on the water. The number of contracts that Chinese suppliers have reneged on has risen as prices have firmed. In the US, FeMo prices rose to $30-31 per lb. Inter-merchant sales have been concluded at even higher numbers. "There are a bunch of traders sitting on 10 mt and 20 mt," said a source, "but they are treating the material as if it is gold. They realize it may be the last few tons of moly they have to sell if they can't obtain firm numbers out of China." A truckload of oxide was sold to a US consumer at $28.50. In Europe, FeMo prices slipped to $76-78, but they are expected to bounce once more consumers enter the market. Oxide prices in Europe are under $29.

[florie78]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.400.857 von Firsteven am 21.03.07 06:03:57

ich hab mir eben noch mal das investors-fact-sheet, als auch die neuste präsentation aus dem haus blue pearl angesehen.

in beiden dokumenten ist beim davidson-projekt die rede von:

0,1 Mio lbs @ 0,185% (Ressourcen, Kategorie "measured")
273,4 Mio lbs @ 0,176% (Ressourcen, Kategorie "indicated")

Insgesamt 293,5 Mio lbs @ 0,177% (Ressourcen)

wenn ich diese gehalte mit der tagesproduktion von 2000t hochrechne, komme ich auf eine jahresproduktion von rund 2,5 mio lbs moly!?

mich interessiert daher, woher ihr die zahlen mit den hohen grades (durchschnitt 0,38%) und darauf aufbauend eine jahresproduktion vn rund 5 mio lbs ab 2009 habt!? sind dass noch inoffizielle schätzungen, deren bestätigung im rahmen der neuen ressourcen-schätzung, bzw. feasibility-studie in Q1, bzw. Q2 (hoffentlich) erfolgen!? oder hab ich irgendwas schon bekanntes übersehen!?

flo

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 24.156.189 von Firsteven am 24.09.06 14:20:17

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 15 Min. 50 Sec.

Ab 18 Min. Blue Pearl Mining!!

Wednesday, March 21, 2007 12:00 PM ET

Lunch Money
Canadian Retail & Fed Lookahead;
Moly Stocks Gone Crazy;

UK Budget Highlights

Peter Brieger, chairman and CEO, GlobeInvest Capital Management

[schnucksche]

It's not often that I would make any future Mo price projections outside of an editorial peice on Moly, but today I must as I don't have time for a lengthy editorial at present. After conversations today with one who is far more conected than I could ever hope to be w/ regards to Moly (& Uranium) players and worldwide demands going forward, I found my own past and present optimism on Moly prices being soundly confirmed. In a nutshell we are in the latest & still early stages of the "REAL" Molymania. (last years (2) were just the opening salvo). I'm hearing we will see $50.00 Moly in /07 and the mania will equal what we have seen (and will see more of) in the Uranium sector. Apparently from another source also today, I hear that already some end users are trying to outbid for Moly production from a couple of Jr miners who have entered into off-take agreements (abeit too early price wise) by offering higher prices. These are all things that I have expected would happen and written about in past. If you love Moly plays hang in there for the longer haul, buy a nearterm producer with a BFS in hand and enjoy the ride on the Moly express. I do believe in the next 8 months many Moly nay-sayers are going to be very sorry they didn't pay more attention to just how much more world Moly demand there is & will be compared to production over the next few years....Ken Reser.

__._,_.___

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Wednesday, March 21, 2007 3:30 PM ET

Trading Day with Pat Bolland

Molybdenum Mania !!!!!!!

Ray Goldie, mining analyst, Salman Partners

[Firsteven]

Einfach nur Spitze!!

von Ken Reser von heute:
Moly Prices Going Forward.

It's not often that I would make any future Mo price projections outside of an editorial peice on Moly, but today I must as I don't have time for a lengthy editorial at present. After conversations today with one who is far more conected than I could ever hope to be w/ regards to Moly (& Uranium) players and worldwide demands going forward, I found my own past and present optimism on Moly prices being soundly confirmed. In a nutshell we are in the latest & still early stages of the "REAL" Molymania. (last years (2) were just the opening salvo). I'm hearing we will see $50.00 Moly in /07 and the mania will equal what we have seen (and will see more of) in the Uranium sector. Apparently from another source also today, I hear that already some end users are trying to outbid for Moly production from a couple of Jr miners who have entered into off-take agreements (abeit too early price wise) by offering higher prices. These are all things that I have expected would happen and written about in past. If you love Moly plays hang in there for the longer haul, buy a nearterm producer with a BFS in hand and enjoy the ride on the Moly express. I do believe in the next 8 months many Moly nay-sayers are going to be very sorry they didn't pay more attention to just how much more world Moly demand there is & will be compared to production over the next few years ....Ken Reser.

[Firsteven]

Besser hätte das Timing für diese Veranstaltung nicht sein können!


3rd China Moly Industry Annual Conference & Trade Talk

Time： March 23-25, 2007

Venue： Grand Metropark Hotel, Nanjing, Jiangsu

http://www.molyworld.com/07en/english.htm

[Firsteven]

Anscheinend beginnen die Shorties doch einzusehen, dass Blue Pearl eine wirklich "heiße" Aktie ist.

therefore
obwohl Anfang März die fundamentalen Daten von Tag zu Tag besser wurden und der Kurs zu steigen begann, sind die Shortzahlen von 3,5 auf über 4,1 Mio. leerverkaufte Aktien gestiegen.

Unsere Shorties haben scheinbar den selbsternannten Chartanalysten mehr geglaubt als den Fundamentals.

Mich würde nicht wundern, wenn sich heute die Anzahl der Shortaktien noch weiter erhöht hätte.

Wer bei so einer unterbewerteten Aktie short geht, der bringt es auch fertig und erhöht bei steigenden Kursen seinen Einsatz noch. Nach der Devise: Irgend wann muß das Ding doch fallen.

Da der heutige Kursanstieg scheinbar durch das neue Marktsegment Molybdän zu Stande kam, denke ich, dass der Short squeeze out bei BluePearl noch vor uns liegt. Aus Erfahrung wissen wir, das an solchen Tagen der Kurs weit aus stärker steigt als heute.

Auf alle Fälle wird es für die reichen Kurzfristtrader immer interessanter die Shorties in die Enge zu treiben und mit gezielten Käufen den Kurs noch weiter nach oben zu treiben.

30% bis 100% Gewinn innerhalb von ein paar Tagen oder Wochen sind nicht zu verachten.

Generell sind wir uns ja einig, dass die Aktie in diesem Marktumfeld auch weiterhin sehr stark unterbewertet ist und nur einen Teil der Unterbewertung bisher ausgeglichen hat.

Momentan gehe ich davon aus, dass BluePearl die gesamten Schulden noch in 2007 tilgen kann.

Durchschnittlicher Molypreis > 30$
Verkauf = 30 Mio. IB (oder mehr) setzen sich zusammen aus:
21 Mio. geplante Produktion
6 Mio. aus Bestand, oder 8 Mio.
3 Mio. (oder mehr) überplanmässige Produktion (man denke nur an die Aktienoptionen der 110 wichtigsten Mitarbeiter zu ca, 8 CAD, das bringt zusätzliche Motivation bei den steigenden Kursen)
Zusätzlich noch die eingelösten Warrents und Optionen (Mindestens die 4,2 Mio. CAD bis 22.03.2007)

Der Cashanteil könnte dann bei ca. 600 Mio. USD liegen und auch dem Ergebnis entsprechen (das 2007 KGV liegt damit bei maximal 2).

Für 2008 erwarte ich bei einer boomenden Weltwirtschaft weiter steigende Molypreise und damit noch höhere Einnahmen und Gewinne.

In 2007 sollten daher 400 Mio.$ für den Kredit, 100 Mio. für die Zusatzbezahlung des ehemaligen TC-Besitzers und 100 Mio.$ für Investitionen in Endako, TC und Davidson aus dem Cash bezahlt werden können.

Somit könnte in 2008 der dann 8 CAD bis 10 CAD pro Aktie betragende Gewinn zur Hälfte oder auch mehr an die treuen Aktionäre ausgeschüttet werden. So um die 1 bis 2 CAD Quartalsdividende wären schon schön.

Sind erst einmal die Schulden bezahlt, dann darf der Molypreis sogar auf 12$ fallen und BluePearl wäre damit zu dem heutigen Kurs immer noch unterbewertet. Und wer glaubt diesen Unsinn von einem so tief fallenden Molypreis für 2009 und die folgenden Jahre schon.

therefore

[Firsteven]

China`s Stainless Steel Output May Rise 37% This Year:

Shanghai, March 21: China, world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 per cent this year to 7.35 million metric tonnes, metals research firm Heinz H Pariser said.

The country made 5.36 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2006, Beatrix Nowak, chief analyst, told a conference today in Foshan, Guangdong province. Global output is estimated at 31 million tonnes this year, up from 28 million tonnes last year, Nowak added.

China is now the world's largest consumer of nickel, used to make steel resistant to corrosion. The projected higher output would boost consumption of nickel. Nickel prices have tripled in the past year, reaching a record 48,500 dollar a tonne. Nickel prices fell 0.7 per cent to 44,300 dollar this afternoon on the London Metal Exchange.

Stockpiles tracked by the exchange plunged 89 per cent in the past year to 3,648 tonnes, equivalent to less than two days of global consumption.

Bureau Report

[Firsteven]

From the pages of Purchasing Magazine Online
Molybdenum price forecast boosted
By Tom Stundza -- 3/14/2007 7:44:00 AM

Molybdenum prices continue to hold firm in the $25 to $29 range so far in 2007, above the 2006 average price around $25/lb. Analysts originally forecast $5/lb declines for 2007, “driven by a return to the market of normal supply levels from China following cutbacks in 2005,” writes J.P. Morgan Securities analyst David George in Melbourne.

More >>

However, “recent developments in China, where the government has moved to restrict exports of molybdenum products, with the potential to extend these restrictions to molybdenum concentrate exports, are thought to have strengthened the prices of moly concentrate and (refined) products.” Upshot: J.P. Morgan’s has boosted the average molybdenum price forecasts to $25.

Background: The Chinese Government imposed a 10% export duty on moly exports last November. Recently there has been speculation the government would seek to further restrict exports by introducing an export quota system soon but no formal announcement has been made yet. Also, on the supply side, the Special Steel Association of Japan notes that no new significant molybdenum projects will come into production until 2008, and it expects the supply/demand balance to remain tight.

[Firsteven]

robVideo/robtv0726.20070322.00049000-00049261-clip2/h/220asf///

Thursday, March 22, 2007 11:15 AM ET
Market Morning with Lisa Oake and Marty Cej
Moly Rally!!!!!!!!
Bill Harris, partner and portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management

[Firsteven]

Moly on the mind as next big play
Base metal has 'captured people's imagination'
ANDY HOFFMAN

MINING REPORTER

Anticipation of a new fund that will invest in molybdenum stocks sparked a market rally in nearly anything and everything related to the rare metal yesterday.

As resource guru Eric Sprott was in Toronto marketing his Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. ahead of an initial public offering that hopes to raise $75-million, shares in companies who produce "moly," as it is generally called, and many who simply own moly development projects were rocketing higher.

The world's largest publicly traded pure play moly producer, Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., saw its shares hit a year high. The stock gained 72 cents or 6.5 per cent to $11.68 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Few investors had even heard of moly, which is used primarily as a hardening agent in the production of steel and high-grade stainless steels, until the recent rally in metal prices.

Soaring values for better known base metals such as nickel and copper have been well documented and the boom in uranium stocks has persisted for more than a year. It appears some investors searching for the next big commodity play are betting on Moly.
"It really seems to have captured people's imagination," said Ian McDonald, the executive chairman of Blue Pearl. "I don't know if its just for a few days or the flavour of the week."

Mr. McDonald suspected that some buyers of moly stocks may have been trying to get ahead of the expected investment's by Mr. Sprott's molybdenum fund.

The Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. intends to use more than half of the proceeds from its IPO to invest in moly-related stocks. It also plans to buy actual molybdenum, which may tie up more supply from an already tight market. Blue Pearl has been named as an adviser to the moly fund.

The price of molybdenum was unchanged at $29.15 (U.S.) per pound yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. The price has gained approximately $5 in the past month.

Other soaring moly stocks yesterday included Moly Mines Ltd., which is developing the Spinifex Ridge molybdenum-copper project in Australia. Moly Mines shares jumped 71 cents (Canadian) or 27 per cent to $3.34 in heavy trading in Toronto, where its shares have more than doubled in the past month. Last week, the Perth-based company said it had been granted mining leases by the Western Australian government covering the Spinifex project, bringing it a step closer to development. It also appointed a number of executives to positions related directly to the project.

Another moly high-flyer was White Rock, B.C.'s Adanac Molybdenum Corp. The company, which derives its name from "Canada" spelled backward, saw its shares surge 25 per cent on the TSX Venture Exchange. Adanac is developing the Ruby Creek moly project in northwestern B.C. Its stock climbed 41 cents to $2.03.

President and chief executive officer Michael MacLeod said the financial community has recently woken up to the potential for moly miners, following the successful creation and debut of Blue Pearl.

"In the last two years, we've gone from people that can't say the word, to people who are intimately familiar with the workings of the market," Mr. MacLeod said in an interview. Capital costs to build the Ruby Creek mine are estimated at $456-million and Mr. MacLeod said the company is hoping the sudden interest in moly will help attract a development partner.

With just 400 million pounds of metal produced a year, the moly market is susceptible to supply disruptions. This month, China said it would impose a quota system, restricting moly exports to those who produce more than 3,000 tonnes per year. The measure is designed to crack down on small "mom and pop" moly mines that are common in China.

Some observers believe the new quota system could reduce the amount of moly exports from China, creating further price pressures on an already tight market.

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Ab 50 Min. und 15 Sec.


Thursday, March 22, 2007 6:30 PM ET

The Business News

Moly Mania Marches On !!!!!!

Stefan Ioannou, mining analyst, Haywood Securities

[Firsteven]

China to restrict molybdenum exports Posted By: marketbr
Post Time: 3/22/2007 23:19
« Previous Message Next Message »


China plans to introduce a quota system for molybdenum product export in order to conserve strategic mineral reserves, an analyst surnamed Yang with the China Metals Information Network Antaike, told Interfax today.



Yang estimated that the quota system will come into effect by either the end of this month or the beginning of April, as the government has not yet finalized quota limits for producers and traders.







Imagine the price in a few months. $40/lbs+ is possible.



We feel that moly stocks will have a similar run to uranium stocks last year. They ran for a few months and moly stocks can do the same. All factors are pointed bullish. China factor, Sprott factor and start of the next metal run will be favorable for all moly stocks.



NCV is our favorite even though performance lately has been poor but NCV is poised for a major move. Most moly investors do not even realize that NCV even exists. Trades more shares on the Frankfurt and once Canadian investors find out about NCV, it will move fast. Last year, it was one of the last moly stocks to run. Seems to be a lagger. Great for us as we can accumulate before expected breakout.



BLK is a gamble but well worth it. Low price, huge potential and high risk.



CUU is worth looking at as they are getting ready to announced their 43-101 report. Even though, it will mainly be copper and gold, they will be announcing moly lbs. This will attracts even greater response and CUU can go to $1.80 soon. We like the risk/reward here.

[Firsteven]

23.03.2007 - 13:33 Uhr
LME denkt an OTC-Clearing für Molybdän und Kobalt
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Molybdän und Kobalt sind die wichtigsten Kandidaten bei der geplanten Expansion der Londoner Metallbörse in das Clearing anderer Metalle im Over-the-Counter-Geschäft. Wie der Chief Executive der Börse, Martin Abbott, in London sagte, hat es in Bezug auf die beiden Metalle eine in großem Maße positive Resonanz gegeben. Allerdings könne man diesen Märkten keine Priorität über die Stahlfutures einräumen, und es werde sicherlich bis 2008 dauern, bevor man an einer solchen Entwicklung arbeiten könne. Jedenfalls erwäge die LME eine Machbarkeitsprüfung für das OTC-Clearing von Molybdän und Kobalt. Abbott berichtete von etlichen Debatten über die Frage, ob die Börse Terminkontrakte für diese Nebenmetallmärkte einführen sollte. Man sei aber zu der Einschätzung gekommen, dass die Märkte für Molybdän und Kobalt nicht groß genug seien, um einen Terminkontrakt zu tragen. Ein weiterer Prüfungspunkt sei das OTC-Clearing regionaler Prämien wie etwa Rotterdamer oder U.S. Midwest Aluminiumprämien, bei denen bereits ein OTC-Handel stattfindet. Ausgehend vom Wachstum des OTC-Geschäfts an anderen Börsen rechnet die LME nach Aussage von Abbott mit einem Zeitraum von drei bis vier Jahren, der nötig sei, damit der OTC-Sektor das zu Grunde liegende Termingeschäft überrundet. DJN/DJG/bdz/23.3.2007

[Gierass]

Resources are hot but special metals can tarnish
PURE SPECULATION
Robin Bromby
March 24, 2007

DON\'T get analysts started on resource sector punters. They\'ll tell you many of these investors are flying by the seat of the pants. Just look at uranium, they say: the market has failed to discriminate between real projects and hype.
Specialty metals are also a trap. When Accent Resources came out on Thursday declaring a new vanadium project near Katanning in Western Australia, its shares rose 25 per cent. The stock retreated yesterday, possibly because the punters saw a report from British analysts Roskill saying the vanadium market would be in surplus within two years and prices would retreat.
The problem with specialty metals is their small market size. Get a few more mines in production, and a shortage becomes a surplus. The metal, in vanadium pentoxide form, was fetching above $US10 a pound last year and is now down to $US7.20/lb with Roskill predicting $US4.50/lb by 2009.

Accent is well behind the pack. Precious Metals Australia, notwithstanding its involvement with Brian Burke, will probably be the first Australian producer. Aurox Resources, with the Balla Balla project, should be next - the company already has an offtake agreement and this week said it was talking to a new potential partner, "a major diversified resources company", about developing the mine.

Then there\'s Reed Resources which, although lagging the other two, has presold its first 10 years of production.

ON the subject of specialty metals used to strengthen steel, we have news that Canadian investment resources guru Eric Sprott is launching a molybdenum fund. To be called Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp, it will raise $C75 million ($80 million) to invest in molybdenum producers and explorers.

Moly Mines, which has just got a mining licence for its Spinifex Ridge project in WA, will be an obvious target, as will Canada\'s Blue Pearl Mining, the world\'s largest traded producer. You\'d have to think that Sprott would also look at some of our emerging moly companies, namely Queensland Ores, Marengo Mining, PacMag Metals and Thor Mining.

Moly Mines shares came off sharply yesterday, possibly because they overshot on their recent run-up. But don\'t confuse moly with vanadium. About 65 per cent of molybdenum production is a by-product of big copper mines, but many of these are seeing declining outputs of moly. China, which produces 20 per cent of the world\'s supply, has just placed export quotas on moly. Therefore, expect a squeeze in the near Future as steel makers start to fret about supplies.

THERE was a call yesterday at the Australian Uranium Conference for a uranium index on the ASX now that there are close to 100 listed companies with uranium targets.

If that comes about, the index would have to include Broad Investments, a ring tone and mobile phone play which has taken its name literally and diversified into uranium, joining those other techs trying to rise from the ranks of the obscure on yellowcake\'s back, PocketMail Group and Blaze International.

Broad, which has picked up seven projects in WA, has no background in mining but executive chairman Vaz Hovanessian does. He was a mover behind the listings of Zephyr Minerals (now Ashburton Minerals) and Voyager Energy, which merged with Arc Energy two years ago.

Hovanessian hopes to raise about $3 million through a share purchase plan to finance exploration, but clearly some considerable purchasing has already gone on. On March 9, 6.4 million Broad shares were traded. Then, on March 13 - a week ahead of the uranium announcement - trading jumped to 330 million shares and stayed above 170 million a day until the stock was suspended.

Resource investors may have gaps in their metals knowledge, but their intuition is something to behold.

The Weekend Australian implies no recommendations regarding any of the stocks mentioned. The author does not own shares in any of the mentioned securities.

brombyr@theaustralian. com.au

[Firsteven]

Investieren mit Eric Sprott:
Ist Molybdän der neue Hoffnungsträger?
Pipelines, Medizintechnik, Luft- und Raumfahrt: Molybdän wird gebraucht.Pipelines, Medizintechnik, Luft- und Raumfahrt: Molybdän wird gebraucht

Eric Sprott war einer der ersten Investoren, die im großen Stil auf Uran setzten. Mit seiner Uranium Participation Corporation kaufte sich Sprott bereits im Jahr 2005 in Uran-Explorer ein. Darunter mittlerweile alte Bekannte wie SXR Uranium One oder Paladin Resources, die ihren Börsenwert seit Sprotts Investment vervielfachen konnten. Heute setzt Sprott auf einen anderen Rohstoff: Anfang Mai gab er bekannt, mit seiner neu gegründeten Molybdenum Participation Corporation gezielt in Explorer aus dem Molybdän-Sektor investieren zu wollen. Hat Sprott etwa ein neues Boom-Metall ausgegraben? Es sieht ganz danach aus. Der Molybdänpreis klettert seit Jahren auf nunmehr 30 Dollar und Branchenkenner sprechen von einem Angebotsdefizit zwischen 6 und 26 Millionen Pfund im Jahr 2009. Molybdän wird vor allem zur Härtung von Stahl verwendet, doch auch TFT-Bildschirme enthalten das so genannte “Übergangsmetall”. In der Medizintechnik wird Molybdän in modernen Röntgengeräten verbaut.

Der wichtigste Verwendungszweck des silbernen Alleskönners ist allerdings die Härtung von Stahl. Pipelines werden in der Regel mittels Molybdän gehärtet. Das ist vor allem deswegen interessant, weil zahlreiche Pipelines mittlerweile marode geworden sind und nicht mehr unter voller Auslastung betrieben werden können. Die Pipeline-Ausfälle in der jüngsten Vergangenheit bestätigen dies. Am Aktienmarkt ist das Angebot reiner Molybdän-Produzenten gering: Blue Pearl Mining ist erst vor etwas mehr als sechs Monaten zu den Produzenten aufgestiegen und gilt bereits heute als größte börsennotierte Molybdän-Gesellschaft. In der zweiten Reihe drängen Unternehmen wie Moly Mines oder Adanac Moly auf eine schnelle Produktion.

Seit Eric Sprott öffentlich gemacht hat, mit seiner Molybdenum Participation in zukünftige Produzenten aus diesem Sektor investieren zu wollen, steigen die Aktienkurse deutlich. So konnte die Aktie von Moly Mines innerhalb dieser Handelswoche um fast 75 Prozent zulegen. Unter Anlegern wird darüber spekuliert, ob Sprotts Molybdenum Participation hinter den gierigen Käufen der vergangenen Wochen steckt. Doch egal wer für die positive Kursentwicklung von Molybdän-Explorern verantwortlich ist: Das Beispiel von Blue Pearl Mining zeigt das Potential, das in “Moly” auch für Investoren steckt.


http://aktien-blog.com/molybdaen-sprott.html

[Firsteven]

von aucoa


Zur Info: unten angeführt die derzeitig stärkst Investierten in BPM
der Beteiligungsgröße nach geordnet

(Fidelity ist nicht dabei, was einmal herumgegeistert ist)

lg,
aucoa (bisher stiller Leser)


Sprott Asset Management, Inc. 4,528,000 0 07-Sep-2006 3,689,000 31-Aug-2006 0 BLE 4,528,000 07-Sep-2006 HF: Long/Short Toronto Canada 12.01 11-May-2005 C

Carmignac Gestion 3,900,000 0 29-Dec-2006 0 29-Sep-2006 0 BLE Patrick Hughes 3,900,000 29-Dec-2006 Growth Paris France .00 03-Feb-2007 C

Tell Investments LLP 3,325,000 0 17-Oct-2005 add 0 BLE 3,325,000 17-Oct-2005 HF: Long/Short London United Kingdom 20-Oct-2005 C

OppenheimerFunds, Inc. 3,000,000 0 30-Nov-2006 0 31-Aug-2006 0 BLE 3,000,000 30-Nov-2006 Value New York United States .00 30-Jan-2007 C

Goodman & Company, Investment Cou... 1,111,000 0 31-Dec-2005 2,072,000 30-Jun-2005 0 BLE 1,111,000 31-Dec-2005 GARP Toronto Canada 1.11 01-Nov-2005 C

Front Street Capital, Inc. 920,000 0 30-Jun-2006 700,000 31-Dec-2005 0 BLE 920,000 30-Jun-2006 Growth Toronto Canada .42 29-Jul-2005 C

Sentry Select Capital Corporation 404,000 0 31-Dec-2005 550,000 30-Sep-2005 0 BLE 404,000 31-Dec-2005 Growth & Income Toronto Canada .34 29-Jul-2005 C

AGF Management Ltd. 402,000 0 31-Mar-2006 560,800 30-Sep-2005 0 BLE 402,000 31-Mar-2006 Growth Toronto Canada .35 23-May-2006 C

U.S. Global Investors 200,000 0 31-Dec-2006 0 30-Sep-2006 0 BLE 200,000 31-Dec-2006 Value San Antonio United States .00 03-Mar-2007 C

Dudley & Company 80,000 0 31-Dec-2006 80,000 30-Sep-2006 0 BLE 80,000 31-Dec-2006 Value Red Bank United States .42 22-Jul-2006 C

Mavrix Fund Management, Inc. 80,000 0 31-Dec-2005 0 31-Mar-2005 0 BLE 80,000 31-Dec-2005 Value Toronto Canada 14-Jul-2006 C

Flexible Investment Consulting GmbH 5,000 0

[Firsteven]

Resources are hot but special metals can tarnish
PURE SPECULATION
Robin Bromby
March 24, 2007

DON\'T get analysts started on resource sector punters. They\'ll tell you many of these investors are flying by the seat of the pants. Just look at uranium, they say: the market has failed to discriminate between real projects and hype.
Specialty metals are also a trap. When Accent Resources came out on Thursday declaring a new vanadium project near Katanning in Western Australia, its shares rose 25 per cent. The stock retreated yesterday, possibly because the punters saw a report from British analysts Roskill saying the vanadium market would be in surplus within two years and prices would retreat.
The problem with specialty metals is their small market size. Get a few more mines in production, and a shortage becomes a surplus. The metal, in vanadium pentoxide form, was fetching above $US10 a pound last year and is now down to $US7.20/lb with Roskill predicting $US4.50/lb by 2009.

Accent is well behind the pack. Precious Metals Australia, notwithstanding its involvement with Brian Burke, will probably be the first Australian producer. Aurox Resources, with the Balla Balla project, should be next - the company already has an offtake agreement and this week said it was talking to a new potential partner, "a major diversified resources company", about developing the mine.

Then there\'s Reed Resources which, although lagging the other two, has presold its first 10 years of production.

ON the subject of specialty metals used to strengthen steel, we have news that Canadian investment resources guru Eric Sprott is launching a molybdenum fund. To be called Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp, it will raise $C75 million ($80 million) to invest in molybdenum producers and explorers.

Moly Mines, which has just got a mining licence for its Spinifex Ridge project in WA, will be an obvious target, as will Canada\'s Blue Pearl Mining, the world\'s largest traded producer. You\'d have to think that Sprott would also look at some of our emerging moly companies, namely Queensland Ores, Marengo Mining, PacMag Metals and Thor Mining.

Moly Mines shares came off sharply yesterday, possibly because they overshot on their recent run-up. But don\'t confuse moly with vanadium. About 65 per cent of molybdenum production is a by-product of big copper mines, but many of these are seeing declining outputs of moly. China, which produces 20 per cent of the world\'s supply, has just placed export quotas on moly. Therefore, expect a squeeze in the near Future as steel makers start to fret about supplies.

THERE was a call yesterday at the Australian Uranium Conference for a uranium index on the ASX now that there are close to 100 listed companies with uranium targets.

If that comes about, the index would have to include Broad Investments, a ring tone and mobile phone play which has taken its name literally and diversified into uranium, joining those other techs trying to rise from the ranks of the obscure on yellowcake\'s back, PocketMail Group and Blaze International.

Broad, which has picked up seven projects in WA, has no background in mining but executive chairman Vaz Hovanessian does. He was a mover behind the listings of Zephyr Minerals (now Ashburton Minerals) and Voyager Energy, which merged with Arc Energy two years ago.

Hovanessian hopes to raise about $3 million through a share purchase plan to finance exploration, but clearly some considerable purchasing has already gone on. On March 9, 6.4 million Broad shares were traded. Then, on March 13 - a week ahead of the uranium announcement - trading jumped to 330 million shares and stayed above 170 million a day until the stock was suspended.

Resource investors may have gaps in their metals knowledge, but their intuition is something to behold.

The Weekend Australian implies no recommendations regarding any of the stocks mentioned. The author does not own shares in any of the mentioned securities.

brombyr@theaustralian. com.au

[Firsteven]

Codelco Says Copper Demand Rises on `Unimaginable' China Growth

By Matthew Craze and Cris Valerio

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Codelco Executive President Jose Pablo Arellano, who runs the world's largest copper company, said demand for the metal will continue to rise through next year because of ``unimaginable'' new construction in China.

China, the biggest consumer of copper, is ``back in the market'' after record-high prices in May last year forced some manufacturers to slow purchases and rely on their stockpiles, halting the rally, Arellano said. Copper has jumped 27 percent since reaching a 10-month low on Feb. 2.

``They are building cities at an unimaginable rate,'' Arellano, 55, said yesterday during an interview at Codelco's headquarters in Santiago. ``Urbanization in general demands a lot of copper. China is going precisely through that stage of development.''

Codelco, which is owned by Chile's government, previously miscalculated China's role in a copper boom that began in 2002 and saw prices jump 65 cents a pound at the end of 2001 to a record $4.04 on May 11.

Arellano's predecessor, Juan Villarzu, predicted in 2006 that prices would average $1.50 to $1.70 a pound. Prices averaged about $3.06. A year earlier, the company predicted prices would fall.

Arellano, who took over from Villarzu in March 2006, declined to provide a price forecast today. He said strong demand for copper will remain strong for ``at least this year and half of next year.''

Reason for Optimism

``There's reason to be optimistic about this market, particularly when you look at the Asian sector,'' said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. ``There's been a constant underestimation for demand.''

Copper prices in New York rose to the highest in more than three months yesterday as China's copper imports in February doubled. Inventories in London Metal Exchange-monitored warehouses have declined for five consecutive weeks, while stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled, signaling increased imports by China.

Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, predicts metals prices may be entering a ``super cycle'' as suppliers fail to keep up with world demand. The bank increased its forecast for copper prices in the first half by 1.1 percent to $2.73 a pound and cut its forecast for the second half by 3.2 percent to $3.

Chile's government copper statistics agency, called Cochilco, cut its price forecast on Jan. 31 to an average of $2.40 a pound, down from an October forecast of $2.80, saying global production will rise.

Housing Slowdown

To be sure, a slumping U.S. housing market may limit global demand growth for copper, Logic Advisors' O'Neill said. The U.S. is the world's second-largest user of the metal after China.

A slowdown in U.S. homebuilding helped shave 1.16 percentage points off growth in the fourth quarter. Builders account for 46 percent of copper use, putting about 400 pounds of the metal into the average U.S. home.

Arellano, who received a doctorate in economics from Harvard, said new mining projects are being delayed because of a global shortage of equipment. Truck makers including Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu Ltd. are increasing production of earth-moving equipment.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said March 19 that copper supply will be ``tight'' in the second quarter of the year amid rising Chinese demand.

BHP is considering an investment at its Escondida copper mine in northern Chile, the world's biggest, to maintain output, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Vicky Binns said in a March 21 note to clients. Melbourne-based BHP will also officially inaugurate its Spence mine in Chile's Atacama Desert next week.

Exploration Spending

Mining companies spent more on exploration in 2006 than ever before, according to researcher Halifax, Nova Scotia-based Metals Economics Group. Spending increased by 47 percent to $7.13 billion, the highest since Metal Economic's study began in 1989.

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., which bought rival U.S. copper producer Phelps Dodge Corp. for $26 billion this year, will develop a copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo that may match its Grasberg operation in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine.

The surge in prices helped boost Codelco's profit 88 percent last year to $3.34 billion from $1.78 billion in 2005. The company's contribution to Chilean government coffers jumped 88 percent to $9.21 billion, the company said March 1.

Record Investment

Codelco will invest a record $2.2 billion in mine developments this year and plans to start its new Gaby project in 2008, its first new mine in 10 years, increasing overall production by 150,000 tons a year of refined copper. Chilean copper production should rise 5.1 percent to 5.63 million metric tons this year, the state-run Chilean Copper Commission said last month.

``With prices where they are, producers are trying to pull as much copper out of the ground as they can,'' said Ron Goodis, futures trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey.

Chile will play host to almost 1,000 copper producers, traders and buyers in Santiago next week for the CRU World Copper Conference and the annual dinner of Chile's Copper Studies Group, known as CESCO. Chile supplies about a third of the world's copper.

Mo Ahmadzadeh, president of metals trading at Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York, said he plans to attend to figure out ``how growth in consumption will be satisfied.'' Copper producers also use the conference to negotiate treatment fees with smelting companies to turn their raw metal into refined copper, Ahmadzadeh said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Craze in Buenos Aires at [e-mail]

Last Updated: March 23, 2007 00:18 EDT

[eifelcash]

China's ferromoly trade in doldrums; offers in a wide range

Source: Platts

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=10930

China's ferromolybdenum trade is now in the doldrums while offers are in a wide range of $68-73/kg on a CIF basis for shipment to Europe, Japan and South Korea, sources said.

Both sellers and buyers agreed that spot buying interest is weak on the back of talks that the Chinese government will soon implement a quota system on molybdenum product exports.

The offer range has widened, reflecting the sentiment of sellers, rather than the supply and demand fundamentals, one Japanese trader said.

"One seller offers $68-69/kg CIF one day and raises it to $71-72/kg the next day and reduces offer levels again...if they get a buying query, they raise their offers....if they do not get buying queries for two days, they get nervous and offer lower," he said. The last offers the trader received were at $71-73/kg CIF Japan, made Wednesday, for shipment after April.

A South Korean source also said there were some Chinese sellers (who do not expect to be issued quotas) lowering their offer prices sharply. "It's their last chance to sell before the implementation of an export quota," he said, adding that he recently heard less than 80 mt of ferromolybdenum , possibly Chinese origin material, sold at $71-72/kg, duty paid to be delivered to a Korean steel mill.

Given a range of $68-73/kg CIF, Japanese and South Korean buyers said the price level is most likely to be above $70/kg on grounds that prices would definitely rise after the introduction of the Chinese quota system. The buyers noted that ferromolybdenum offers in Europe are $75-80/kg for trade within the region. "If you think this is a crazy price...prices will get craizier," said a second Japanese trader.

Meanwhile, Chinese sellers contacted by Platts highlighted the fact that buying interest had weakened.

One local trader said: "Offer prices from China are down this week as no one is interested in buying. Prices have been rising since early March and demand has cooled down due to high prices." Prices were mostly quoted at a range of $68-69.50/kg in mid-March compared with around $61-62/kg seen in late February.

A source close to Chinese producers said: "Most producers and traders continue to halt exports as they are waiting for the final results of the long-anticipated export quota system likely to come out in end-March or early April."

According to traders, there have been persistent rumors that China would reduce moly-related product exports by about 10% once the new export quota system become effective.

A second trader said: "Talk is that more than half of the exisiting molybdenum producers or traders would not be granted any export quotas as their production and export track records fail to meet the requirements set by the Chinese authority." He added: "Producers and traders are all waiting for the official announcement from the Ministry of Commerce and they simply couldn't care less about exporting any material at the moment in order to minimise any trading risk once the new policy is implemented."

A third trader also noted that ferromolybdenum trade in China was at a standstill this week. "European consumers have not been buying much this week," he said.

Domestic ferromolybdenum prices were now quoted steady at around Yuan 280,000
($36,218)/mt ex-plant, unchanged from a week ago, traders said.

[Firsteven]

Update on the Sprott Moly Fund

Posted By: LABMAN
Post Time: 3/24/2007 11:04

1. Initial prospectus is out
2. no pricing as of yet
3. will be a 1/2 warrant attached
4.pricing around April 10th
5. underwriters GMP,SPROTT,Cannacord,TD,Dundee,Etrade,

[Firsteven]

Ble will enter into a consulting agreement with Sprott Moly fund
for an initial 3 years,with one year extension.
Will receive a fee for doing so
This agreement will be finalized prior Sprotts MOLY FUND ipo

[fisch29]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.477.351 von Firsteven am 24.03.07 20:00:43

dann wird hier in ein paar wochen die party steigen

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 15 Min. u. 50 Sec.

Friday, March 23, 2007 7:00 PM ET
Market Call Tonight
Canadian Equities
Michael Smedley, chief portfolio manager, Morgan Meighen & Associates


Wieder eine super Werbung für Blue Pearl. Montag dürfte es nach dieser Kaufempfehlung weiter nach oben gehen!
Smedley schätzt die Aussichten für Blue Pearl bzw. den Kurs kurzfristig mit "very strong", mittelfristig mit "very strong" und langfristig "ist abhängig von der Moly-Preisentwicklung ab".
Die Firma von Smedley hält auch Aktien von Blue Pearl!


Recommendation: B U Y
Michael Smedley :
Pure play in molybdenum. Short and medium-term, the stock should be very strong. Long-term depends on the price of molybdenum.
2007-03-23

[Firsteven]

Da am Montag alles im Zeichen der Jahreszahlen 2006 steht, habe ich mal versucht ein paar Daten zusammen zu tragen, damit man das ganze am Montag besser interpretieren kann.

Basis:
Shares: 103,3 Mio. Stück
Shares (voll verwässert) = 140,1 Mio. Stück.

GMP:
Ebita 2006 erwartet von GMP = 91 Mio. USD (Basis: Moly-Preis 24,75 USD).

Schätzung von Yahoo.com: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BLE.TO

Earnings Est Current Qtr
4/2006 01/2007 12/2006 12/2007
Avg. Estimate N/A 0.39 0.73 1.31
No. of Analysts 0 1 2 2
Low Estimate N/A 0.39 0.40 1.25
High Estimate N/A 0.39 1.06 1.37
Year Ago EPS N/A N/A N/A 0.73

EPS Trends Current Qtr

Current Estimate 0.39 0.73 1.31
7 Days Ago 0.39 0.73 1.31
30 Days Ago 0.39 0.73 1.30
60 Days Ago 0.39 1.08 1.26

Growth Est
BLE.TO
next Year 2007: 79.5%
5 Years (per annum) 5.0%
Earnings (avg. for comparison categories) 14.8
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories) 2.96

Schätzung von Comdirekt: (in USD)
2006 2007 2008
Umsatz 129 Mio. 581,7 Mio. 649,31 Mio.
Ebitada 101,3 Mio. 357,04 Mio. 475,08 Mio.
Ebit 99,31 Mio. 295,62 Mio. 370,05 Mio.
Gewinn je Aktie 1,06 1,22 1,82
KGV 11,06 9,65 6,46
KCV 9,53 6,03 4,48
Cash flow je Aktie 1,23 1,95 2,62
Nettovermögen je Aktie3,39 6,82 6,95
Nettoverschuldung 312 Mio. 198 Mio. -32,5 Mio.


Schätzung für 2007:
Gewinn je Aktie 1,22
KGV 9,65
Cash flow je Aktie 1,95
Gewinnwachstum 131,64%



Also ich denke die Daten die wir uns für Montag behalten sollten sind:

EBITDA 91 Mio. USD
Gewinn je Aktie Schätzung: 0,40 - 1,06 USD (Durchschnitt 0,73 USD)

Wenn diese Daten am Montag getoppt werden, dann dürfte es weiter (sehr) steil nach oben gehen.

Selbst wenn die Zahlen "inline" sind - ist es möglich das wir mal 1-2 Tage nach unten gehen.
Ich gehe aber dann davon aus, dass verstärkt Fonds und Instis einsteigen werden, da ab Montag die Zahlen/Bilanzdaten bestätigt sind. Und dann dürfen auch erst einige größere einsteigen.
Die Aktie ist auf Basis der 2007er Zahlen immer noch ein Schnäppchen (Übernahmephantasie!).

Im Mai gibt es dann Daten für das 1. Quartal 2007. Wenn der Moly-Preis weiterhin bei 30 USD liegt (und Blue Pearl verkauft ja angeblich derzeit das Moly für 33-34 USD je Pfund!), dann dürften die Analystenschätzungen nach oben revidiert werden.

Was wird / könnte am Montag bzw. am Dienstag nach der Telefonkonferenz passieren?

>Wie schon geschrieben werden größere Adressen dann einsteigen, da die Zahlen dann endlich bestätigt sind.

>Weiterhin sollten dann auch die restlichen Einschätzungen/Empfehlungen kommen - z.B. von Canacoord, Blackmount usw.

>4,1 Mio. Aktien müssen noch gedeckt werden - und das unter den Umständen, dass die Resourcenschätzungen von Davidson, TCMC und Endako noch im April kommen sollen!

>An diesem Wochenende ist die "3rd China Moly Industry Annual Conference & Trade Talk" in Nanjing, Jiangsu. Natürlich hat sich der Kursverlauf der Moly Aktien in dieser Woche auch bis nach China rum gesprochen. Vielleicht steigen nach der Conference auch verstärkt neue Investoren von China bei Blue Pearl und weiteren Exploren ein.

>Moly Mania ist in USA u. Canada ausgebrochen. In dieser Woche kamen soviele Berichte auf BNN wie noch nie. Jetzt muß nur noch der Moly-Preis weiter brav steigen, dann werden wir bei Blue Pearl einen traumhaften Kursverlauf sehen!

Ich bleibe dabei - trotz des aktuellen Kursanstiegs - Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis ist weiterhin top. 20-25% Risiko nach unten - jeoch mind. noch 100% Luft nach oben, wobei ich davon ausgehen, dass wir noch im 1. Halbjahr 12-15 EURO sehen werden! Kommt natürlich auch darauf an, wie die Weltbörsen laufen - ob es Krieg gibt oder nicht. Fundamentale super Aktien werden jedoch auch bei oder nach einem Krieg sehr schnell wieder dahin steigen wo sie her gekommen sind. Hat man ja von 2 Wochen bei Blue Pearl gesehen!

Und nicht vergessen: Im April dürfte auch die Sprott Firma gelistet werden und aktiv in das Geschehen eingreifen!!!!!

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

selbst bei sinkenden Umsatz steigt der Kurs bei BluePearl weiter. Wie chartex schon sagte, wer verkaufen wollte, der hat zwischenzeitlich bei Kursen von 7,11 bis 12,07 schon reichlich Zeit gehabt. Auch die Effekte der eingetauschten Warrents haben dem Kurs, ausser einer eintägigen Seitwärtsbewegung am Donnerstag, nichts anhaben können.

Auch der Satz von Bloomberg (Firsteven 96930):
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- The following table shows the best- performing and worst-performing stocks in the Standard & Poor\\'s/TSX Composite Index for the past week.

BEST PERFORMING

Blue Pearl Mining +18% The Vancouver-based molybdenum miner rose (BLE CN, C$11.92) with other producers of the rare metal,

lässt für die nächste Woche weiter hoffen. Die Marketingmaschinerie für Molybdän läuft in Kanada und Australien auf Hochtouren.

Ich denke, dass es bald auch ein Überschwappen auf die USA, nach Asien und Europa geben wird.

Wichtig ist, dass Molybdän mit seinen Eigenschaften überall bekannt wird und das ein Druck auf die verarbeitende Industrie entsteht, den Molybdän-Prozentsatz anzuheben und/oder die neuen Legierungen mit den höheren Wirkungsgraden zu verwenden.

So erzeugt die Marketingwelle gleich noch mehr Umsatz für das ohnehin schon knappe Gut und BluePearl und die anderen aussichtsreichen Molybdänproduzenten kommen in aller Munde.

Es entsteht gerade ein neues Marktsegment. Nach dem Start des Sprott-Fonds im April werden mit Sicherheit noch weitere Fonds folgen und ich könnte mir gut vorstellen, dass der erste Indexfond alleine für Moly ebenfalls noch in 2007 an den Start gehen wird.

Wer jetzt aus dem Segment aussteigt, der ist selber schuld. Auch das Traden in diesem aufstrebenden Segment wird sich wahrscheinlich nicht mehr lohnen. Wir Longies müssen schliesslich gegen die Trader beim Gewinn noch aufholen und wie bisher immer bei solchen unterbewerteten Aktien (oder Perlen, man traut sich kaum das Wort zu benutzen), auch noch überholen.

Wir müssen bedenken, dass gerade mal die ersten Fonds und Großanleger den Bereich entdeckt haben. Bis hier der konservative Kleinanleger (Börseonlineleser, die hatten übrigends wieder eine Supergauaktie empfohlen (-40% bei Verbio in einer Woche)) einsteigt, um sich um die letzten 10% Gewinn zu streiten, ist noch ein langer Weg.

Alleine aus diesen Gründen sehe ich für alle Molybdänaktien noch längerfristiges Aufwärtspotential. Zwischenzeitliche Konsolidierungen sind nur gesund und helfen allen, auch den jetzt erst eingestiegenen und den Neueinsteigern der nächsten Wochen, ihre Gewinne steuerfrei realisieren zu können.

Die Worte Cash-Cow und rare metal in den aktuellen Börsenberichten, die erreichen mehr, als wir mit unseren Übersichten über die fundamentalen Daten in hundert Jahren erreichen können. So einfach ist die Welt.

Zum Schluss noch ein paar Gedanken zu Davidson und der Sojitzbeteiligung. In dieser Woche habe ich mir die bei den Behörden eingereichten Planungen für Davidson angesehen.

Man hat einen Betrieb für 10 Jahre und einem täglichen Mengenvolumen von 2000 t, aufgeteilt auf 50 40-Tonner-LKW-Ladungen beantragt. Bei einem Gehalt von 0,35% Molybdän ergibt das bei 365 Tagen im Jahr die angekündigten 5 Mio. IB Molybdän.

Berechnen wir jetzt die Gewinnaussichten für die beantragten 10 Jahre. Gehen wir von einem Gewinn von 15$ pro IB aus. Wird zwar höher liegen, aber Sojitz wird auf die Molybdänpreise der 90er Jahre verweisen. Macht also 750 Millionen $ Gewinn. Nun ziehen wir noch die 50 Mio. Invest ab, bleiben 700 Mio. Gewinn über.

25% (angestrebter Sojitzanteil) von 700 Mio. = 175 Mio. Gewinn für die nächsten 10 Jahre. Also mehr als 100 Mio. werden die nach der Gewinnrechnung für Davidson sicherlich nicht bezahlen wollen.

Nun will man aber zusammen bei Endako eine Super-Pit erstellen und die Ressourcen deutlich ausweiten.

Ian wird daher die Verhandlungen über die Super-Pit, die Ressourcenausweitungen und Davidson zusammen durchführen wollen. Nur so kann er das Optimum an Geld für die Davidsonbeteiligung herausholen.

Alleine aus diesem Grunde, wird nach meiner Meinung Sojitz bereit sein für Davidson 100 Mio. bis 150 Mio. $ zu bezahlen, wahrscheinlich in zwei Raten für 2007 und 2008. Natürlich gibt es dann auch noch Optionen auf Nachzahlungen bei höheren Molybdänpreisen und bei einer Laufzeitverlängerung bei Davidson.

Daher gehe ich davon aus, dass mit Hilfe der Zahlung in 2007, der gesamte Kredit in 2007 schon bezahlt werden kann.

Wie immer stellen meine Gedankengänge keine Kaufaufforderung dar und sollen zum Ideenaustausch anregen.


therefore

[Firsteven]

SUBJECT: Interesting read on MOLYBEDENUM Posted By: rory17
Post Time: 3/26/2007 16:09

What do you think? Good luck

"MOLY"THE NEXT SECTOR TO ROCK!

For those of you who haven’t noticed; it appears that the price of Molybdenum (moly) is on the move and the funny thing is, it is moving in the opposite direction of what most of the analysts and newsletter writers have predicted. HOW CAN THAT BE? How can they be wrong about a base metal that has skyrocketed in price by more than 12 X in the last 3 years? Funny thing about this is the fact that it is not really their fault that they have been on the wrong side of the price movement with their predictions.

Moly is one of the most unknown and mis-understood base metals in the world today. This metal is unquestionably the metal of the 21st century. Not only is it the metal of the 21st century but very few individuals, investors, newsletter writers and even companies that produce moly have a clue to the importance that moly will play in shaping the rest of our lives and the lives of generations to come.

The best part about this is the fact that we, as consumers, are going to be the big winners. Not only will the consumer be a huge winner but countries such as the US and China can now look at each other as partners in the development of crucial technology and power plants that will easily solve the world’s energy problems and needs rather than fierce competitors for the worlds dwindling supplies of natural resources.

Think about it for a second! What better way to cool the world’s frayed nerves than to come up with a solution to the world’s energy crisis! Think of the possibility of buying gasoline at $1.50-$2.00/gallon again. Believe it or not there is a solution to the world’s energy crisis and the technology has been around for decades! In fact this technology is now in the process of becoming a reality.

China and South Africa are working together to develop and build power plants that will liquify coal in a process that makes their vast reserves of coal economical and the finished product is burned pollution free. Think of what this means! Both the US and China can tell the oil producing nations, of the world, to go take a “high flying leap off their tallest oil rig.” For the first time in years I have positive feelings about the future and I can see a way for the US to solve many of its pressing problems. Think of automobiles and power plants burning fuel that is virtually pollution free for a lot less than we pay for the same energy today! This technology will not only solve our energy crisis but it will also do wonders in solving the world’s air pollution crisis and the threat of global warming.

I hope you are getting as excited as I am because from my standpoint I have searched for a very long time to find anything to be positive about in the world today. Not only does this give me something to cheer about but the timing cannot be better.

Now you have got to be asking yourself “how does moly fit in to this?” The answer to that is very simple but yet it has been kept a “BIG SECRET!” Very few people know or understand the fact that MOLY is the catalyst to clean the impurities out of the vast quantities of coal and stranded natural gas that exists in the world today. With moly as the catalyst there is very little doubt about the fact that the demand for moly can do anything but increase significantly over the years to come.

Very few newsletter writers, analysts or even producing moly companies understand the fact that the world of the 21st century cannot exist, in the manner that it will, without a much larger supply of moly than is available in the market today..

Without this knowledge there is no way that many of these very intelligent people could come to the conclusion that the price of moly could do anything but fall in price. That would be a logical and practical opinion to form.

For months newsletter writers and analysts have said that moly prices would fall below $15/lb. after peaking above $39/lb. For months end users of moly have waited for the pullback in price. Most of these end users felt that moly had no-where to go in price but down. As a result of this thinking these end users kept their inventories of moly at very low levels. They waited and hoped that the price of moly would fall. Moly did have a pullback; all the way to the meager level of $29/lb.

The funny thing about moly is the fact that moly, as a commodity, is not traded as a commodity on any of the publicly traded commodity exchanges. The important point to this is the fact that moly then has to trade on the basis of pure supply and demand. Pure supply and demand eliminates all the games and manipulation that is created by speculators, hedge funds and those who attempt to manipulate markets to their advantage.

Moly prices are now rising because the end users can wait no longer for the price to fall. The end users must buy to replenish inventories that do not exist and this, coupled with thin supplies, is the real reason why the price of moly is now rising. It has nothing to do with roasters or any other garbage that certain people and companies want you to believe. These naysayers have their own best interest at heart and they may be the ones who truly know what is going on behind the scene and doing everything they can to keep moly a big secret while they take full advantage to position themselves for the future.

Ken Reser just posted a magnificent article called “THE BIG SECRET!” I love this guy as I have learned so much from him in the short time that I have had the privilege of knowing and working with him. Ken is one of these guys who spends an incredible amount of time in the pursuit of knowledge and the truth. Ken is the first individual; I know of, to post an article revealing the importance that moly plays in the development of this new technology that literally is the “SAVIOR OF THE WORLD!”

Now that the truth is coming out; all these people, who have felt that moly prices would pull back, now have a perfectly good reason to alter their opinions! I believe we will read lots of articles, in the near future, from analysts and newsletter writers who have “flip-flopped” with their opinion on the future direction in the price of moly. Even Jim Cramer on “romper room” or excuse me I mean CNBC was talking about the positive future of the base metals and moly as one base metal in particular. In other words the rest of the investing world is beginning to stand up and take notice.

LOOK OUT WORLD BECAUSE HERE COMES MOLY AND THE MOLY STOCKS! I feel that moly, as a sector will outperform and give returns better than the oil and uranium sectors. After all why mess with uranium and the consequences of the liabilities and cleaning the messes it leaves behind when you can burn pollution-free coal and stranded natural gas FOR A LOT LESS THAN IT COSTS TODAY TO FILL OUR CARS AND HEAT OUR HOMES.

With the vast quantities of coal and stranded natural gas that exists in the world today the US and the rest of the world can become completely independent in the development and supplies OF THEIR OWN NATURAL RESOURCES FOR CENTURIES TO COME. Wouldn’t this be an absolutely wonderful feeling and position to be in for the rest of our lives and the lives of generations to come? Wouldn’t it be great to leave our children and grandchildren something to be proud of? Isn’t it about time for the people of the world to stand up and demand that attention and vast amounts of capital be spent on the development of this absolutely necessary and timely power and technology!

For those of you who believe that a recession or depression is eminent, after the hyperinflation, and the resulting slowdown will change the demand for moly; I ask you to think about this. What will the government do when the economy comes to a standstill?

I believe that our government will do exactly what they did in the depression of the 30’s; except this time the money will be spent to completely realign our energy industry. I believe they will create vast quantities of jobs that will put the people back to work. I also believe these jobs will be of the same nature that existed in the 30’s when The Hoover Dam was built. I believe power plants across the country will be built and these power plants will run on coal and stranded natural gas using vast quantities of moly as a catalyst to clean the impurities.

In other words I believe a slowdown in the US could create a greater demand for moly as a result of the money being spent in a manner that puts people back to work and at the same time solves our great countries energy and pollution needs with all the problems that go with it! This would take negative, short term, economic times and transfer that pain into long term growth and gain for future generations to come.

Yeah I’m pumped and for the first time in a very long time I’m very optimistic that we can now turn the corner and bring this country back to the status it once held. I believe this will be a very long and slow process but at least it is a start and I have absolutely no problem sharing that seat with developing countries like China. THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL! You know; I’m beginning to feel good; I only hope our elected officials get the point real quick.

[pintador]

von Firsteven aus dem Haupt-Thread

MARCH 26, 2007 - 17:13 ET Show Text
Show Financial Table(s)
Show All


Blue Pearl Reports Cash Flow From Operating Activities of US$75.4 Million in 2006

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - March 26, 2007) - Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE)(TSX:BLE.WT.A)(FRANKFURT:A6R) -

Highlights of 2006 reflecting acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC) (all in U.S. dollars):

- Revenues for the fourth quarter and full year 2006 totaled $150.8 million -- all occurring from sales mainly of molybdenum in the 67 days following the acquisition -- amounting to approximately $2.25 million per day in the period October 26 to December 31, 2006.

- Cash flow from operating activities, mostly in the post-acquisition period, totaled $75.4 million.

- Company ended 2006 with cash balances of $98.1 million after paying, subsequent to closing, $61.5 million owed to the TCMC vendors relating to accounts receivable as provided for in the TCMC acquisition agreement. The Company\'s cash balances as of March 22, 2007 were approximately $135 million after also paying $64.3 million, including a prepayment premium, to discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility on March 15, 2007.

- Molybdenum production costs for output from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $6.28 per pound while realized prices on molybdenum sales averaged $25.74 per pound.

- Net loss of $20.6 million in 2006 includes $68.9 million of inventory purchase price adjustment included in operating expenses and a non-cash charge of $14.5 million for stock options compensation.

- Conference call and webcast for analysts and investors scheduled for March 27, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., the world\'s largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, today announced financial results for the year ended December 31, 2006 prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Blue Pearl\'s revenues totaled $150.8 million in 2006, derived mainly from the sale of molybdenum products subsequent to the Company\'s acquisition on October 26, 2006 of Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC). No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in 2005 as it was in the development stage.

Operating expenses in 2006, which were incurred by TCMC during the period October 26 to December 31, 2006, totaled $145.1 million. Included in operating expenses was an acquisition expense of $68.9 million related to the inventory portion of the TCMC purchase price adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of molybdenum in inventory on the acquisition date and this inventory was deemed to be purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an uplift of inventory costs of $98.5 million over the original book value. Of this, $68.9 million was charged to operating expenses in 2006 and the remaining $29.6 million is expected to be charged to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory is sold. Blue Pearl had no operating expenses in 2005.

Among the Company\'s other 2006 expenses was a non-cash charge of $14.5 million for stock-based compensation as a result of options being granted to 110 members of management, senior operations personnel, directors and other staff. Stock-based compensation in 2005 was $0.4 million.

General and administrative expenses totaled $4.6 million in 2006, compared with $1.5 million in 2005. Exploration and development expenses, which were mainly related to the Davidson Project, were $8.6 million in 2006 versus $2.3 million a year earlier.

Net loss for 2006 was $20.6 million or $0.36 per basic and diluted share, compared with a net loss for 2005 of $4.1 million or $0.13 per basic and diluted share. The per share figures are based on a weighted-average number of shares outstanding of 57,688,000 in 2006 and 31,879,000 in 2005. As of December 31, 2006, there were 100,528,000 shares outstanding.

Cash generated by operating activities totaled $75.4 million in 2006, compared with cash used of $2.7 million in 2005.

Cash balances were $98.1 million as at December 31, 2006 versus $6.9 million a year earlier.

During 2006, mainly to finance the TCMC acquisition, the Company raised $233.7 million from equity issues and incurred $401.9 million in long-term debt. In 2005, $9.8 million was raised from equity issues.

Total assets at the end of 2006 were $935.7 million, up from $8.4 million a year earlier.

Revenues in the fourth quarter of 2006 were $150.8 million. There were no revenues in the fourth quarter of 2005. Net loss was $12.4 million or $0.14 per basic and diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2006, compared with $2.5 million or $0.06 per basic and diluted share in the corresponding period of 2005.

In 2006, the Company, following the TCMC acquisition, produced 3.84 million pounds of molybdenum at an average production cost of $6.28 per pound. The Company\'s U.S. operations produced 2.47 million pounds at an average cost of $5.83 per pound while the Canadian operations produced 1.37 million pounds at an average cost of $7.30 per pound. The amounts produced reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the Company. The average costs reflect production costs, including roasting costs, for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.

Outlook

The price of molybdenum, which averaged $4.50 per pound between 1994 and 2004, peaked at $40 per pound in June 2005 and has since moderated somewhat. In 2006, the average price of molybdenum remained historically strong at approximately $25 per pound. The expected trends in supply and demand for molybdenum suggest a positive near-term outlook for the price. Barring a world recession, demand for molybdenum is expected to continue to grow. In the absence of new supply coming from China and given numerous constraints on overall production growth outside of China, the price of molybdenum is expected to remain relatively strong in the near future.

As previously announced, the Company is expecting to produce 21 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 and 27 million pounds in 2008 from its existing Thompson Creek and Endako mines. This production profile and the anticipated strong sales prices are expected to produce strong cash flow for the Company and to allow the Company to meet its cash requirements for operations, capital expenditures, debt payments and any contingent payment accruing during 2007.

One of the Company\'s goals is to reduce its long-term debt. As previously announced, the Company prepaid in full its $61.9 million Second Lien Credit Facility plus a prepayment premium of $2.5 million on March 15, 2007. The remaining bank debt of approximately $340 million (First Lien Credit Facility), on which the Company is required to pay principal of $18.75 million per quarter in 2007, can be prepaid without penalty and if molybdenum prices remain sufficiently strong then debt payments will be made above the scheduled minimum amounts. The Company\'s cash balances on March 22, 2007 were approximately $135 million. As of the end of March 2007, after the regular quarterly payment on the First Lien is made at month-end, Blue Pearl\'s bank debt is expected to be less than $320 million.

Both the Thompson Creek and Endako Mines are developing new plans based on a reevaluation of mineral resources and reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of $10 per pound and updated costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and $3.50 per pound at Endako. The new plans are expected to increase reserves and mine life at both operations when they are completed in 2007.

The Davidson Deposit, which is Canada\'s largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit, is important to the Company\'s Future as it represents an opportunity for organic growth at low capital cost. The deposit\'s high-grade core is easily accessible with minimal impact to the environment. A feasibility study including a new mineral reserve estimate is currently underway and is expected to be completed during the second quarter of 2007.

Additional information on the Company\'s financial position is available in Blue Pearl\'s 2006 Financial Statements and Management\'s Discussion and Analysis, which will be filed with SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and posted on the Company\'s website (www.bluepearl.ca).

Conference call and webcast

Blue Pearl will hold a conference call for analysts and investors to discuss its 2006 financial results on March 27, 2007 at 10 a.m. (Eastern).

Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman, Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Derek Price, Chief Financial Officer, will be available to answer questions during the call.

To participate in the call, please dial 416-695-6623 or 1-877-323-2090 about five minutes prior to the start of the call.

A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at www.ccnmatthews.com and www.bluepearl.ca.

An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-695-5275 or 1-888-509-0081 (Passcode 641830) from 12:00 p.m. on March 27 to 11:59 p.m. on April 3. An archived recording of the webcast will also be available at Blue Pearl\'s website.

About Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.

Blue Pearl is the world\'s fifth-largest molybdenum producer. In October 2006, the Company purchased the Thompson Creek open-pit molybdenum mine and mill in Idaho, a 75% share of the Endako open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility in northern British Columbia, and a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania. Blue Pearl is also developing the Davidson high-grade underground molybdenum project near Smithers, B.C. The Company has more than 700 employees. Its head office is in Toronto, Ontario. It also has executive offices in Vancouver, British Columbia and Denver, Colorado (including sales and marketing). More information is available at www.bluepearl.ca.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains "forward-looking information" which may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the future financial or operating performance of Blue Pearl, its subsidiaries and its projects, the future price of molybdenum, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realization of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, costs of production, capital, operating and exploration expenditures, costs and timing of the development of new deposits, costs and timing of future exploration, requirements for additional capital, government regulation of mining operations, environmental risks, reclamation expenses, title disputes or claims and limitations of insurance coverage. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates", or "believes" or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Blue Pearl and/or its subsidiaries to be materially different
from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others, general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the anticipated benefits of the acquisition not occurring in the expected time frame or at all; the actual results of current exploration activities; actual results of reclamation activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future prices of molybdenum; possible variations of ore grade or recovery rates; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion of development or construction activities, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Blue Pearl\'s short form prospectus dated October 13, 2006 which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although Blue Pearl has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and Blue Pearl disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Blue Pearl undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management\'s estimates or opinions should change. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

The following are the Company\'s consolidated financial statements, excluding notes, for 2006 and 2005.



Consolidated Balance SheetsDecember 31, 2006 and 2005(US dollars in thousands)
2006 2005
Assets
Current assets Cash and cash equivalents $ 98,059 $ 6,915 Accounts receivable 84,476 272 Product inventory 131,269 - Material and supplies inventory 25,498 - Prepaid expenses 3,015 20 Income taxes recoverable 1,195 - Future income and mining taxes 468 - ------------ ---------- 343,980 7,207
Property, plant and equipment 480,187 1,159Reclamation deposits 23,005 -Restricted cash 8,081 31Deferred finance fees 13,267 -Future income and mining taxes 20,902 -Goodwill 46,322 - ------------ ----------
$ 935,744 $ 8,397 ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Liabilities
Current liabilities Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 38,794 $ 1,348 Income taxes payable 30,602 - Current portion of long-term debt 77,284 - Future income and mining taxes 17,237 - ------------ ---------- 163,917 1,348
Long-term debt 333,789 -Asset retirement obligations 25,992 193Sales contract liability 11,421 -Severance and retention 8,008 -Future income and mining taxes 168,566 - ------------ ----------
711,693 1,541 ------------ ----------
Shareholders\' Equity
Common shares 210,857 11,867Warrants 35,445 646Contributed surplus 14,953 422Deficit (27,579) (6,936)Foreign currency translation adjustment (9,625) 857 ------------ ----------
224,051 6,856 ------------ ----------
$ 935,744 $ 8,397 ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------

Consolidated Statements of LossDecember 31, 2006 and 2005(US dollars and share amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)
2006 2005
Revenues Molybdenum sales $ 147,676 $ - Tolling and calcining 3,167 - ------------ ----------
150,843 - ------------ ----------
Cost of sales Operating expenses 139,115 - Selling and marketing 1,239 - Depreciation and depletion 4,718 - Accretion 27 - ------------ ---------- 145,099 - ------------ ----------
Income from mining operations 5,744 -
Other (income) expenses General and administrative 4,568 1,470 Exploration and development 8,635 2,313 Interest and finance fees 9,139 - Stock-based compensation 14,547 434 Interest income (1,183) (139) Other (1,047) 35 ------------ ----------
34,659 4,113 ------------ ----------
Loss before income taxes (28,915) (4,113)
Income and mining taxes (recoverable) Current 23,133 - Future (31,405) - ------------ ----------
(8,272) - ------------ ----------
Net loss $ (20,643) $ (4,113) ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Loss per share - basic and diluted $ (0.36) $ (0.13) ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Weighted-average number of shares outstanding 57,688 31,879 ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------

Consolidated Statements of DeficitDecember 31, 2006 and 2005(US dollars in thousands)
2006 2005
Balance, beginning of year $ (6,936) $ (2,823)Net loss (20,643) (4,113) ------------ ----------Balance, end of year $ (27,579) $ (6,936) ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Consolidated Statements of Cash FlowsDecember 31, 2006 and 2005(US dollars in thousands)
2006 2005
Operating Activities
Net loss $ (20,643) $ (4,113)Items not affecting cash: Depreciation and depletion 4,718 - Accretion 27 - Amortization of finance fees 406 - Stock-based compensation 14,547 434 Future income and mining taxes (31,405) - Unrealized derivative losses 660 - Gain on sale of marketable securities - (2)Change in non-cash working capital 107,134 958 ------------ ---------- Cash generated by (used in) operating activities 75,444 (2,723) ------------ ----------
Investing Activities
Property, plant and equipment (4,514) -Acquisitions, net of cash acquired (600,428) (874)Restricted cash (138) -Proceeds from disposition of marketable securities - 11Reclamation deposit (235) (31) ------------ ---------- Cash used in investing activities (605,315) (894) ------------ ----------
Financing Activities
Equity issues 233,701 9,822Long-term debt 401,855 -Finance fees (13,673) -Repayments of long-term debt (367) - ------------ ----------
Cash generated by financing activities 621,516 9,822 ------------ ----------
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash (501) - ------------ ----------
Increase in cash and cash equivalents 91,144 6,205
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of year 6,915 710 ------------ ----------
Cash and cash equivalents, end of year $ 98,059 $ 6,915 ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------




Shares outstanding: 108,019,658

[Firsteven]

Hallo leute,

nun hat der markt die Bestätigung, dass BluePearl eine Cash-Cow ist.

Bedingt durch die Verlustvorträge aus der Explorerzeit und den Kosten der TC Übernahme musste noch kein $ versteuert werden.

Die Vorträge sind nun, bis auf 20 Mio. USD, aufgebraucht und deshalb wird der Cashanteil sich auch um ca, 30% reduzieren.

Aber es bleiben dann noch ca, 1,6 Mio $ CASH pro Tag übrig. Mit den 135 Mio. $ Kassenbestand und den Einnahmen wird BluePearl im Laufe des Jahres 2007 schuldenfrei sein. Abhängig von den Investitionen aber spätestens im ersten Halbjahr 2008. Ich persönlich gehe bei dem Molypreis um die 30$ von 2007 aus.

Die News waren so aufbereitet, das ausser Warren, jetzt jeder die Story verstehen kann und wird.

therefore

[Firsteven]

http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/2006MDA.pdf

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.

Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Years ended December 31, 2006 and 2005

(US dollars in thousands, except per share and per pound amounts, unless otherwise indicated)
This discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the Corporation’s consolidated financial
statements and related notes thereto for the years ended December 31, 2006 and 2005 which were prepared
in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are expressed in
US dollars unless otherwise indicated. Additional information on the Corporation is available on SEDAR at
www.sedar.com.
Selected Annual Information (Note 2)
(US$ in thousands, except per share amounts)
2006 2005 2004
(Note 1)
Molybdenum sold (000’s lb) 5,737 - -
Revenue $ 150,843 $ - $ -
Cost of sales $ 145,099 $ - $ -
Income from mining operations $ 5,744 $ - $ -
Net (loss) income $ (20,643) $ (4,113) $ 265
Income (loss) per share
– basic and diluted $ (0.36) $ (0.13) $ 0.02
Cash flow from operating activities $ 75,444 $ (2,723) $ 408
Cash and cash equivalents $ 98,059 $ 6,915 $ 631
Working capital $ 180,063 $ 5,859 $ 615
Total assets $ 935,744 $ 8,397 $ 809
Total long term debt $ 411,073 $ - $ -
Shareholders’ equity $ 224,051 $ 6,856 $ 712
Shares outstanding at December 31
(000’s)
100,528 43,079 23,259
Note 1 - 2004 data is for the 6 month period ended December 31, 2004. The Corporation changed its year end
effective at December 31, 2004.
Note 2 – The financial information included in the table above, excluding the molybdenum sold (000’s lb) was
extracted from the Corporation’s audited financial statements for the years noted.
Introduction
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (“Blue Pearl” or the “Corporation”) acquired Thompson Creek Metals Company
(“TCMC” or “Thompson Creek”) on October 26, 2006. TCMC is the fifth-largest molybdenum producer in
the world and owns the Thompson Creek mine and concentrator in Idaho, the Langeloth metallurgical
facility in Pennsylvania and a 75% joint venture interest in the Endako mine, concentrator and roaster in
British Columbia. This acquisition transformed the Corporation into a significant metal producer with
vertically integrated mining, milling and processing operations.
Blue Pearl paid $575,000 on closing for Thompson Creek and $61,529 on subsequent collection of certain
TCMC receivables. The Corporation is also responsible for a contingent payment to the former
shareholders of Thompson Creek that is based on the average price of molybdenum in each of 2007, 2008
and 2009. If the average price of molybdenum is between $15 and $25 per pound for 2007, the Corporation
will be required to make a contingent payment of between $50,000 and $100,000 in early 2008. A similar
calculation is made for 2008 regarding a contingent payment to be made in early 2009. However, this
payment is reduced by the amount of the first payment. The total of the two payments cannot exceed
$100,000. If the average price of molybdenum exceeds $15 per pound in 2009, then the Corporation will
- 2 -
be required to make a final contingent payment of $25,000 in early 2010.
The purchase price, together with closing costs of approximately $179, has been financed through:
a) On the date of the close, the Corporation issued debt as follows:
i. $340,000 variable rate first lien senior secured amortizing term loan bearing interest at LIBOR
plus 475 basis points. This loan matures on October 26, 2012.
ii. $22,500 variable rate first lien senior secured revolving line of credit bearing interest at LIBOR
plus 475 basis points. This line of credit matures on October 26, 2011.
iii. $61,855 second lien senior secured term loan bearing interest at LIBOR plus 1,000 basis points.
This loan matures on April 26, 2013. This loan does not amortize. As described in Note 21 of the
Corporation’s financial statements, this loan was repaid in full in March 2007.
b) On October 26, 2006, the Corporation issued 41,860,000 shares of common stock and 20,930,000
warrants for net proceeds of $191,877 after underwriting fees and other issuing costs. Each whole common
share purchase warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at Cdn$9.00 per share until
October 23, 2011.
c) On the closing date, a former shareholder of Thompson Creek purchased, through a private placement,
7,227,182 shares of common stock and 3,613,591 warrants for proceeds of $35,352. Each warrant entitles
the holder to purchase one common share at Cdn$9.00 per share until October 23, 2011.
The Corporation has consolidated the results of operations from the acquisition date forward. The
Corporation has accounted for this acquisition as a purchase business combination with the Corporation as
the acquirer. The purchase price has been allocated to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed based on
the estimated fair values on the acquisition date. Estimated fair values will be based on independent
appraisals, discounted cash flows, quoted market prices and estimates made by management. To the extent
that the purchase price exceeds the fair value of the net identifiable tangible and intangible assets, the
Corporation has recorded goodwill.
The consolidated balance sheet at acquisition is as presented below. The consolidated balance sheet may
differ from the consolidated balance sheet determined after the completion of the valuation process. This
allocation of the purchase price is preliminary and is based on management’s estimate of the fair value of
the assets and liabilities acquired. The final fair-value estimate could be materially different from that
currently being used. Management is continuing to assess the estimated fair value for certain assets and
liabilities acquired including property, plant and equipment, inventories, asset retirement obligations, future
income taxes and intangible assets which valuations are less advanced due to the inherent complexities
associated with valuations.
- 3 -
Preliminary Purchase Price Allocation
Assets
Cash $ 36,280
Property, plant and equipment 490,032
Product inventory 195,883
Material and supplies inventory 26,503
Accounts receivable 83,733
Reclamation deposits 22,727
Other assets 11,429
Goodwill 46,989
913,576
Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 25,927
Long term debt 9,585
Asset retirement obligation 25,651
Future tax liability 197,119
Sales contract liability 11,175
Other liabilities 7,411
276,868
Net assets acquired $ 636,708
Purchase price payment
Paid on closing $ 575,000
Paid subsequent to closing 61,529
Costs 179
$ 636,708
Blue Pearl is developing the Davidson molybdenum property (“Davidson Property”) in British Columbia.
A feasibility study and permitting are currently underway. Production is expected from the Davidson mine
in 2008 and synergies are expected by using the newly acquired Endako facility, which is within trucking
distance, to process Davidson ore.
- 4 -
Description of Operations
The key statistics are presented in the table below. These amounts include the TCMC operations for the
post-acquisition period October 26, 2006 to December 31, 2006, the period that the Corporation owned
these operations. The Canadian operations reflect the Corporation’s 75% ownership in the Endako Mine.
As the Corporation had no operations in 2005, a comparative period has not been presented.
2006
(Unaudited)
Key Statistics
US
Operations
Canadian
Operations
Total
Molybdenum sold (000’s lb) 3,992 1,745 5,737
Molybdenum produced (000’s lbs) (Note 1) 2,473 1,373 3,846
Revenue ($/lb) $ 26.40 $ 24.23 $ 25.74
Operating expenses ($/lb Mo sold)
Inventory purchase price adjustment (note 3) $ 12.10 $ 11.81 $ 12.02
Other operating $ 14.53 $ 6.99 $ 12.23
Total $ 26.63 $ 18.80 $ 24.25
Mining
Ore (000’s tonnes) 899 1,320 2,219
Waste (000’s tonnes) 3,936 906 4,842
Total (000’s tonnes) 4,835 2,226 7,061
Strip ratio 4.38 0.69 2.18
Milling (000’s tonnes) 883 1,129 2,012
Grade (% molybdenum) 0.14 0.06 0.10
Recovery (%) 90.0 75.7 82.0
Production costs ($/ lb) (Note 2) $ 5.83 $ 7.30 6.28
Revenue from molybdenum sales $ 105,401 $ 42,275 $ 147,676
Operating Expenses
Inventory purchase price adjustment (note 3) $ 48,324 $ 20,608 $ 68,932
Other operating expenses $ 57,990 $ 12,193 $ 70,183
Total $ 106,314 $ 32,801 $ 139,115
Note 1 – These amounts reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include
molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the Corporation.
Note 2 – These costs reflect production costs for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.
Note 3 – See Income Statement section of this Management’s Discussion and Analysis for explanation.
United States Operations
The Corporation’s Thompson Creek mine and concentrator are located near Challis, in central Idaho.
Mining is done by conventional open pit methods utilizing electric-powered shovels and 200-ton haul
trucks. The mine has produced over 150 million pounds of molybdenum since commencement in 1983.
The property covers 21,000 acres with all the necessary permits, water, power, easements and rights-of-way
to allow operations. The concentrator has a capacity of 28,500 tons per day and operates with a crusher,
SAG mill, ball mill and flotation circuit. The concentrator averages approximately 90% recovery and
- 5 -
produces concentrate averaging 57% molybdenum by weight.
The molybdenum disulfide concentrate produced at Thompson Creek Mine during the calendar year 2006
was processed into a variety of products containing 16.2 million pounds of molybdenum. Most of the
concentrate is shipped by truck to the Langeloth processing facility. Approximately 10% of the concentrate
is upgraded at the mine site to produce high grade molybdenum.
The Langeloth plant, located near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, was originally constructed in 1924 and has
undergone multiple expansions and renovations. Roasting capacity is approximately 35 million pounds per
year. It consists of six multi-hearth roasters ranging in size from 16 to 21 feet in diameter. Four roasters
process molybdenum disulfide to produce molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum. The Thompson
Creek Mine output provides much of the feed source for these roasters. The balance of the capacity is filled
with third party purchases and toll roasting of molybdenum disulfide. Two roasters are committed to toll
roasting recycled nickel-cobalt containing catalyst material derived primarily from the chemical industry.
The Langeloth facility’s air emissions permit expired on December 31, 2006. The renewal application was
submitted in March 2006. The Langeloth facility has a water treatment plant to control heavy metals to
comply with water discharge regulations. Renewal for the water discharge permit was applied for in 1992
and is still pending. The facility is operating under the existing air and water permits, as allowed under
applicable law, until new permits are issued.
Canadian Operations
The Corporation’s Canadian operations are conducted through a 75% interest in the Endako open-pit mine,
concentrator and roaster which is located near Fraser Lake, British Columbia. This mining operation
commenced production in 1965. The mine property consists of 374 claims, including 25 mineral leases,
covering 7,741 hectares and has the necessary permits and ancillary facilities to allow operations. The
infrastructure includes a 30,000 tonnes per day concentrator and a 14,000 to 16,000 kilogram per day
multiple-hearth roaster that converts molybdenum sulfide concentrate into technical molybdic oxide
(known as tech oxide). Total molybdenum production at the Endako mine in calendar year 2006 was 11.5
million pounds.
Markets
Blue Pearl produces primarily molybdenum products. The products produced cover most of the range of
molybdenum products available in the market.
Molybdenum is added to iron and steel in the manufacturing process to strengthen it and increase its anticorrosive
characteristics. It is an important ingredient in high-performance stainless steel and other alloys.
Molybdenum is also used in chemical products such as catalysts, lubricants and pigments, and as a catalyst
to reduce sulfur in petroleum refining.
Molybdenum demand has grown at an average of approximately 4% a year over the last 20 years and the
world consumption is now in excess of 400 million pounds annually. Demand is being driven by industries
such as aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding, the military and especially oil and gas, where demand for anticorrosive
steel is growing and refineries require higher amounts of molybdenum catalyst. Given
expectations of a strong growth in energy investments in the coming years and a continuation of the global
economic expansion, especially in China, the demand for molybdenum is likely to continue to grow.
Molybdenum supply is expected to be constrained over the medium term. Approximately 60% of the
world’s molybdenum production comes from by-product production at copper mines. While some of these
mines are expecting to increase molybdenum production in the coming years, others have forecast lower
- 6 -
production. Many have been mining areas of higher grade molybdenum within their mines over the last two
years to take advantage of the recent higher molybdenum prices. However, these mines are unable to
indefinitely maintain the molybdenum high-grading activities due to the nature of their ore bodies. Other
operators have announced construction of molybdenum recovery circuits that will add small amounts to the
supply. One major operator has announced a mine re-opening but it is not expected to start producing until
2009 at the earliest. Another potential additional source of molybdenum is from new western world mine
construction. Most of the significant deposits are held by junior mining companies. These companies will
require large financings, relative to their current capital base, that may be difficult to obtain especially due
to the lack of forward markets to hedge the molybdenum price. Should the financing be obtained, the time
required to complete construction will be several years.
China is a large producer and, increasingly, a large consumer of molybdenum and has been a major
influence on molybdenum pricing in the last decade. China has significant molybdenum resources,
produces more than 20% of the world’s annual supply, and in the past has been a major exporter of
molybdenum. But in the past two years, molybdenum exports from China have fallen as a result of
increasing internal consumption and of government intervention in 2005 to close a number of smaller mines
due to safety and environmental concerns. In 2006, in an apparent attempt to manage exports of
molybdenum, the Chinese government imposed export duties on molybdenum and announced a program of
export licensing that allows molybdenum exports only by larger companies. The Chinese government in
early 2007 was also considering the imposition of export quotas for molybdenum.
The price of molybdenum, which averaged $4.50 per pound between 1994 and 2004, peaked at $40 per
pound in June 2005 and has since moderated somewhat. In 2006, the average price of molybdenum
remained strong at approximately $25 per pound. The expected trends in supply and demand suggest a
positive near-term outlook for the price of molybdenum. Barring a world recession, demand for
molybdenum is expected to continue to grow. In the absence of new supply coming from China and given
numerous constraints on production growth outside of China, the price of molybdenum is expected to
remain relatively strong in the near-term future.
Financial Review
Blue Pearl purchased TCMC on October 26, 2006 and consolidated its operating results for the period
October 26 to December 31, 2006. The TCMC operations included the Thompson Creek mine, the
Langeloth Metallurgical Facility and 75% of the Endako Mine Joint Venture. Prior to the TCMC purchase,
Blue Pearl mining assets were limited to the Davidson Property which is in the feasibility study and
permitting stage.
Income Statement
The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2006 was $20,643 or $0.36 per share, compared to a net loss
of $4,113, or $0.13 per share in 2005.
Revenues in 2006 were mainly derived from the sale of molybdenum products by TCMC. During the
period October 26 to December 31, after the TCMC acquisition was completed, 5,737,000 pounds of
molybdenum were sold at an average realized price of $25.74 per pound. TCMC also generated revenue of
$3,167 from toll roasting third party molybdenum products and from recovering metals in spent catalyst.
No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in 2005 as it was in the development stage.
Cost of sales in 2006, which were incurred by TCMC during the period October 26 to December 31, totaled
$145,099. These expenses include mining, processing and administration at the Thompson Creek and
Endako mines, processing of Thompson Creek ore at the Langeloth plant, costs to purchase partially
finished molybdenum products from third parties for roasting at the Langeloth plant and costs related to
- 7 -
tolling third party molybdenum and catalysts at Langeloth.
Included in the operating expenses is $68,932 related to the inventory portion of the Thompson Creek
purchase price adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of inventory on the acquisition date and this
inventory was deemed to be purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an
uplift of inventory costs of $98,531 over the original book value prior to the acquisition. The table below
shows the fair value adjustment allocated to inventory on acquisition, the amount included in operating
expenses in 2006 and the amount that remains as part of the inventory costs at December 31, 2006. The
remaining inventory purchase price adjustment at December 31, 2006 of $29,599 is expected to be charged
to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory is sold.
Thompson Creek Purchase Price Adjustment Allocated to Inventory:
Inventory increase from allocation at October 25, 2006 $ 98,531
Less: portion of inventory increase charged
to operating expenses in 2006 68,932
Inventory increase remaining at December 31, 2006 $ 29,599
Blue Pearl had no cost of sales in 2005 as it was a development stage company.
General and administrative expense increased by $3,098 in 2006 compared to 2005 due to the increased
activities associated with the TCMC purchase in October 2006.
Exploration and development expense increased $6,322 in 2006 as compared to 2005 primarily as the
Corporation continues to proceed with the Davidson property. The increased costs are for the increased
permitting and feasibility work done for the Davidson project.
Interest income increased by $1,044 in 2006 as the Corporation had more cash from the equity financing
related to the purchase, cash acquired with TCMC and cash generated from the TCMC operations.
Interest expense and finance fees in 2006 resulted from the long-term debt borrowed to finance the TCMC
acquisition. Stock based compensation increased $14,113 in 2006 as options were granted to TCMC
management and senior operations personnel in addition to certain Blue Pearl staff.
Cash Flows
Cash from operating activities provided $75,444 in 2006 and required $2,723 in 2005. The increased cash
flow was mainly a result of the TCMC acquisition in October 2006 as the Corporation sold the inventory
acquired. The 2006 loss of $20,643 included non-cash charges such as stock-based compensation of
$14,547 and depreciation and amortization of $4,718 offset by the future tax recovery. Significant changes
to the non-cash working capital were a reduction in inventory of $65,421, and increased accounts payables
and accrued liabilities of $22,802 and income taxes payable of $19,762.
Investing activities required $605,315 in 2006 which was almost entirely used to purchase TCMC. In 2005
investing activities required $894 mostly for the acquisition of the Davidson Property.
Financing activities generated $621,516 in 2006. The Corporation issued 57,449,048 shares and
25,319,541 warrants to raise $233,701 mainly through a prospectus offering completed in connection with
the TCMC purchase. Long term debt of $401,855 was borrowed to partially finance the TCMC purchase
and finance fees of $13,673 were incurred to raise this debt. In 2005, equity issues raised $9,822 that was
used to fund the Davidson Project and provide working capital.
- 8 -
Liquidity and Capital Resources
During 2006, cash and cash equivalents increased by $91,144 to $98,059 at December 31. The working
capital acquired as part of the financing of the TCMC acquisition and the operating cash flow for the 67
days that Blue Pearl owned TCMC were the main reasons for the increase in cash.
The Corporation also has a $22,500 revolving credit facility available as part of the long term debt
negotiated during the TCMC acquisition. The revolving credit facility matures October 26, 2011 and bears
interest on outstanding balances of LIBOR plus 475 basis points. At December 31, 2006, the full amount of
the revolving credit facility was available to be used.
In 2007, the Corporation is expecting to fund capital expenditures of approximately $15,000, scheduled
principal repayments of approximately $78,000, interest payments of approximately $36,000, and Davidson
feasibility and permitting costs of approximately $5,000. In January 2008, Blue Pearl may be required to
make a contingent payment to the TCMC vendors of $50,000 to $100,000 if the average market price of
molybdenum is between $15 and $25 per pound for 2007. If the average price is less than $15 per pound,
then no payment is required in 2008.
In addition to the above amounts, financing for the Davidson Project construction will be required by 2008.
The Davidson feasibility study is not completed so the amount required is unknown but is estimated by
management to be approximately $50,000 to $60,000. The Corporation is considering options to finance
this project that may include a joint venture arrangement. The Corporation’s loan facility restricts certain
cash from being used for Davidson construction. At December 31, 2006 the Corporation has more than
$40,000 that could be used for Davidson construction.
Outlook
The price of molybdenum on world markets is the single most important variable to cash flow and
profitability for the Corporation. The strong prices, in the $24 to $30 range, realized by the Corporation
since TCMC was acquired provided sufficient cash flow such that the Corporation was able to prepay
$61,855 of the long-term debt, along with a prepayment premium of $2,474, in March 2007 and thus
reduce future interest expense. The debt prepaid was the highest interest rate portion and was prepaid
after less than five months outstanding. Management expects that molybdenum prices will remain strong
in the medium term.
Molybdenum production in 2007 is expected to be 12.8 million pounds from the Thompson Creek Mine at
a cost of $8.50 and 8.5 million pounds at a cost of $6.65 from the Corporation’s 75% share of the Endako
Mine. These Thompson Creek Mine costs will be high in 2007 due to costs from acceleration of waste
stripping leading into the next phase of the ore body and lower grade ore to be mined in the initial part of
this phase. The Thompson Creek Mine has moved to continuous operations in the mill to process
sufficient ore to fulfill these plans.
This production profile and the strong sales prices are expected to allow the Corporation to meet its cash
requirements for operations, capital expenditures, debt payments and contingent payment during 2007. One
of the Corporation’s goals is to reduce its long-term debt. The remaining debt can be prepaid without
penalty and if prices remain sufficiently strong then debt payments will be made above the required
minimum amounts.
Both the Thompson Creek Mine and the Endako Mine are developing new plans based on a re-evaluation of
mineral resources and reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of US$10 per pound and with
updated costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and
$3.50 per pound at Endako. The new plans are expected to increase mineral reserves and mine life at both
- 9 -
operations when they are completed in 2007.
The Davidson Deposit, which is Canada’s largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit, is important to the
Corporation’s future as it represents an opportunity for organic growth at a low capital cost. The deposit’s
high-grade core is easily accessible with minimal impact to the environment. A feasibility study is currently
being conducted by Hatch Ltd. and is expected to be completed during the second quarter of 2007. The
study is examining the feasibility of mining 2,000 tonnes of high-grade ore per day from the deposit and
shipping the ore to the Endako facility 200 kilometers away for processing. The Corporation expects
positive results from the feasibility study and from the application for environmental permitting, which will
soon be submitted to the provincial authorities for approval. If mining at Davidson begins as expected in
late 2008, it will result in significant increase in the Corporation’s overall annual molybdenum production.
Related Party Transactions
Sojitz Moly Resources, Inc. (“Sojitz”) owns 25% of the Endako Mine Joint Venture and therefore is a
related party. The Corporation’s sales to Sojitz during the post acquisition period of October 26 to
December 31, 2006 were $21,106. Sojitz also receives 1% commission on all Endako Mine sales.
Office administration fees of $287 (2005 - $245) were incurred for rent and various office services provided
by Glencairn Gold Corporation (“Glencairn”) which is related through certain common directors and
officers. Included in accounts payable at December 31, 2006 is $31 (2005 - $24) owing to this related
party. The office services agreement with Glencairn was terminated at the end of February 2007.
Commitments and Contingencies
As discussed above, in connection with the acquisition of TCMC, the Corporation entered into the First
Lien Senior Secured and Second Lien Senior Secured loan agreements. The First Lien Senior Secured loan
requires quarterly principal payments. In addition to the regular principal payments, the Corporation is
required to make additional principal payments upon the issuance of any new equity after the acquisition of
TCMC. This agreement requires additional principal repayments each year if cash flows, as defined in the
loan agreement, in the year exceed the operating requirements of the Corporation. This loan is scheduled to
mature on October 26, 2012.
Thompson Creek has entered into variable rate loan agreements to finance the purchase of certain mining
equipment. The mining equipment is collateral for the loan. Each of these loans requires regular principal
repayments and matures no later than 2010. These loans bear interest at LIBOR plus 200 basis points. As
at December 31, 2006, the interest rate for these loans was 7.35%.
Maturities of long-term debt obligations are as follows:
Senior
Secured
Equipment
Loans Total
Year ending December 31:
2007 $ 75,000 $ 2,284 $ 77,284
2008 75,000 2,353 77,353
2009 75,000 2,423 77,423
2010 50,000 2,158 52,158
2011 35,000 - 35,000
Thereafter 91,855 - 91,855
$ 401,855 $ 9,218 $ 411,073
- 10 -
The Corporation has entered in an agreement with Sojitz (“Sojitz Agreement”) in which the Corporation
will sell to Sojitz up to 10% of certain production from the Thompson Creek Mine. The price to be paid by
Sojitz will vary depending on the production costs and the market price of molybdenum. The Corporation
expects to sell molybdenum to Sojitz from 2007 to 2011 under the terms of this agreement.
The Corporation enters into forward currency contracts in order to reduce the impact of certain foreign
currency fluctuations related to the operations of Endako. The forward currency contracts provide
protection to the Corporation from fluctuations in the Canadian dollar. The terms of the contracts are less
than one year. As of December 31, 2006, the Corporation had open forward exchange contracts with a total
commitment to purchase Cdn$22,631 at an average rate of US$0.89.
The Corporation has entered into agreements to purchase molybdenum in 2007. The Corporation expects it
will purchase approximately 10.4 million pounds of molybdenum under these agreements.
As described in the Introduction, Blue Pearl may be required to pay up to $125,000 to the vendors of
TCMC over the next three years depending on the price of molybdenum.
Risk and Uncertainties
Commodity Prices
Blue Pearl’s profitability is based on the production and sale of molybdenum products. The profitability
will be significantly impacted by changes in the market price for molybdenum and in the change in the
exchange rate of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar. The Corporation has not entered into any
hedging agreements in respect to the sale of molybdenum, other than the Sojitz Agreement and certain
agreements for small quantities of sales, as there is no organized market for such agreements. Blue Pearl
has entered into and continues to enter into agreements to fix the US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange
rate. The Corporation does not consider these agreements to be accounting hedges.
Mineral Reserves and Resources
Mineral reserves and resources are estimates and no assurance can be given that the anticipated tonnages
and grades will be achieved or that the expected level of recovery will be realized. The ore grade
recovered may differ from the estimated grades of the reserves and resources. Such figures have been
determined based upon assumed metal prices and operating costs. Changes in mine operating and
processing costs, changes in ore grade and decline in the market price of molybdenum may render some or
all of the reserves uneconomic.
Capital Markets
Changes to the market price of molybdenum and assumptions concerning future operating costs may make
capital market unavailable to the Corporation. If capital markets become unavailable to Blue Pearl, it may
not be able to proceed with the development of the Davidson property.
Construction
The construction of a new mine is dependent on arranging financing through the capital markets,
availability of construction companies and personnel, weather and government permits. If Blue Pearl is
unable to access each of these in a timely manner, construction could be delayed or require significant
additional costs to complete in a timely manner.
- 11 -
Environmental
Blue Pearl’s operations are subject to environmental regulations in the jurisdictions in which it operates.
Environmental legislation is evolving in a manner which will require stricter standards and enforcement,
increased fines and penalties for non-compliance and more stringent environmental assessments of
proposed projects. There is no assurance that future changes in environmental regulation, if any, will not
adversely affect Blue Pearl’s operations.
Summary of Quarterly Results
(US$ in thousands, except per share amounts)
(Unaudited)
Mar 31 Jun 30 Sep 30 Dec 31 Mar 31 Jun 30 Sep 30 Dec 31
2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006
Revenue $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $150,843
Net loss $260 $573 $790 $2,490 $2,570 $2,857 $2,784 $12,432
Loss per share
- basic and diluted $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.14
Total assets $9,662 $8,749 $9,487 $8,397 $7,794 $7,752 $7,237 $935,744
Review of Quarter Ended December 31, 2006
The net loss for the quarter ended December 31, 2006 was $12,432 or $0.14 per share, compared to a net
loss of $2,490, or $0.06 per share in 2005.
Revenues and operating expenses are the same as the annual amounts discussed above as all operations
occurred in the fourth quarter of 2006 with the acquisition of TCMC on October 26, 2006. Blue Pearl had
no operating expenses in 2005 as it was a development stage company.
General and administrative expense increased by $2,582 to $3,108 in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared
to 2005 due to the increased activities associated with the TCMC purchase in October 2006.
Exploration and development expense decreased $401 to $1,599 in the fourth quarter of 2006 as compared
to 2005 primarily due to a decrease in the Davidson property expenditures.
Interest income increased by $957 to $1,010 in the fourth quarter of 2006 as the Corporation had more cash
from the equity financing related to the purchase, cash acquired with TCMC and cash generated from the
TCMC operations.
Interest expense and finance fees in the fourth quarter of 2006 resulted from the long-term debt borrowed to
finance the TCMC acquisition. Stock based compensation increased $14,026 to $14,034 in the fourth
quarter of 2006 as options were granted to TCMC management and senior operations personnel in addition
to certain Blue Pearl staff.
Critical Accounting Estimates
The Corporation’s accounting policies are described in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements. The
estimates made in applying the policies below can be uncertain and a change in these estimates could
materially impact the consolidated financial statements.
- 12 -
Fair Value Estimate
As part of the accounting for the acquisition of TCMC, Blue Pearl is required to estimate fair value for all
assets and liabilities acquired. In estimating fair values, management has engaged independent appraisers
who will complete their work during 2007, used discounted cash flows and market prices. Management has
estimated the fair value based on assumptions concerning the future cash flows of the operations acquired.
While management believes these assumptions provide the current fair value, changes to any of these
assumptions could materially impact the estimated fair values of the assets and liabilities acquired.
Management has made assumptions regarding the future price of molybdenum, future costs to produce
molybdenum, the timing and the quantities of molybdenum produced, exchange rates for its Canadian
operations and discount factors for determining current fair value.
The allocation of the purchase price is preliminary and is based on the current estimates of fair value.
Management continues to review the fair value estimates. The final valuation of the acquisition may be
materially different from the current preliminary valuation presented.
Product Inventory
Blue Pearl acquired product inventory as part of the TCMC acquisition. Management made assumptions
concerning the current market price of the products in inventory, the remaining costs associated in making
the molybdenum ready for sale, and selling efforts. As indicated previously, this valuation has resulted in a
fair value estimate of the product inventory that exceeds the historic production costs. Different
assumptions concerning the market price and selling efforts could result in a different fair value estimate for
the inventory acquired.
Property, Plant and Equipment
Property, plant and equipment is the most significant asset of the Corporation, with a carrying value of
$480,187 at December 31, 2006, and represents capitalized expenditures on the exploration and
development of mining properties and related plant and equipment. Capitalized costs are depreciated and
depleted using either a unit-of-sale method over the estimated economic life of the mine to which they
relate, or using the straight-line method over their estimated useful lives.
The costs associated with property, plant and equipment are separately allocated to reserves, property, plant
and equipment and include acquired interests in production, development and exploration stage properties
representing the fair value at the time they were acquired. The values of such mineral properties are
primarily driven by the nature and amount of mineral interests believed to be contained or potentially
contained, in properties to which they relate.
The Corporation reviews and evaluates its mining interests for impairment at least annually or when events
or changes in circumstances indicate that the related carrying amounts may not be recoverable. Impairment
is considered to exist if the total estimated future undiscounted cash flows are less than the carrying amount
of the assets. An impairment loss is measured and recorded based on discounted estimated future cash
flows. Future cash flows are estimated based on expected future production, commodity prices, operating
costs and capital costs.
Depreciation and depletion is also determined based on property, plant and equipment carrying values.
Depreciation and depletion is calculated on units of production basis over existing mineral reserves.
Mineral reserves are an estimate of the quantities of economically recoverable ore and will change from
time to time as a result of additional geological information, actual grade or recoveries different from
original estimates or molybdenum price changes.
- 13 -
Asset Retirement Obligations
The Corporation is subject to environmental protection laws governing reclamation of its mine sites. These
laws are continually changing and these changes may affect the procedures and costs required to complete
reclamation obligations. Estimates of the fair value of these liabilities for asset retirement obligations are
recognized in the period they are incurred. A corresponding increase in the related asset is recorded and
depreciated over the life of the asset. If the fair value of the liability decreases due to changes in future cash
flow estimates, a corresponding decrease in the related asset is recorded. If the reduction exceeds the value
of the related asset, the remaining amount is reduced through earnings. Where a related asset is not
identifiable with a liability, the change in fair value is charged to earnings in the period. Each period, the
liability is increased to reflect the accretion (or interest) portion of the initial fair value estimate and changes
in estimated cost and timing of the reclamation procedures. Actual future reclamation costs may be
materially different from the costs estimated by the Corporation at December 31, 2006.
Stock Option and Warrant Expense
The determination of the fair value of stock options and warrants issued requires management to estimate
future stock volatility and a risk-free rate of return. Given the change in the Corporation from an
exploration and development company to a full scale operating company in October 2006, the historic
information regarding useful lives of the options and the volatility of the shares no longer applied. Blue
Pearl estimated the expected volatility of the options by referencing a peer group of mining operating
companies.
Income and Mining Taxes
Blue Pearl uses the liability method of accounting for income taxes. Under the liability method, future tax
assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between the financial statement carrying amounts
and their respective tax bases, and for tax losses and other deductions carried forward. The Corporation
evaluates the carrying values of its future tax assets periodically by assessing its valuation allowance and by
adjusting the amount of such valuation allowance in the period, if necessary.
Sales Contract Liability
Prior to the acquisition by Blue Pearl, TCMC had entered into a contract with Sojitz Moly Resources for the
sale of certain production associated with the Thompson Creek Mine. Based on the terms of the contract,
the Corporation has made assumptions regarding the quantity of molybdenum subject to the contract and
the timing of the sales. Also, the Corporation has made certain assumptions regarding the future price of
molybdenum in determining the fair value of the contract. The amount and price of the molybdenum to be
sold in connection with this contract may differ from the assumptions used to fair value the contract.
Recent Changes in Accounting Pronouncements
Mine Stripping Costs
In March 2006, the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (“CICA”) issued EIC 160, Stripping Costs
Incurred in the Production Phase of a Mining Operation. The EIC clarifies that stripping costs should be
accounted for according to the benefit received by the entity. Generally, stripping costs should be accounted
for as variable production costs that should be included in the costs of the inventory produced (that is,
extracted) during the period that stripping costs are incurred. However, stripping costs should be
capitalized if the stripping activity can be shown to represent a betterment to the mineral property.
Capitalized stripping costs should be amortized in a rational and systematic manner over the reserves that
directly benefit from the specific stripping activity. In the mining industry, the unit of production method is
- 14 -
generally the appropriate method. The reserves used to amortize capitalized stripping costs will normally
differ from those used to amortize the mineral property and related life-of-mine assets as the stripping costs
may only relate to a portion of the total revenues. The Corporation will be applying this standard
prospectively beginning January 1, 2007 as allowed under the standard.
On January 27, 2005, the CICA issued three new accounting standards: Handbook Section 1530,
Comprehensive Income, Handbook Section 3855, Financial Instruments – Recognition and Measurement,
and Handbook Section 3865, Hedges. The Corporation will adopt these standards effective January 1, 2007.
While the Corporation does not expect the adoption of these standards to materially impact the consolidated
financial statements, it has not made a final determination of the potential impact.
Comprehensive Income
As a result of adopting these standards, a new category, Other Comprehensive Income, will be added to
shareholders’ equity in the consolidated balance sheets. Major components for this category will include
unrealized gains and losses on financial assets classified as available-for-sale, unrealized foreign currency
translation amounts, net of hedging, arising from self-sustaining foreign operations, and changes in the fair
value of the effective portion of the cash flow hedging instruments.
Financial Instruments – Recognition and Measurement
Under this new standard, all financial instruments will be classified as one of the following: held-to-maturity
investments, loans and receivables, held-for-trading or available-for-sale. Financial assets and liabilities
held-for-trading will be measured at fair value with gains and losses recognized in net income. Financial
assets held-to-maturity, including loans and receivables, and financial liabilities other than those held-fortrading,
will be measured at amortized cost. Available-for-sale instruments will be measured at fair value
with unrealized gains and losses recognized in other comprehensive income. The standard also permits the
designation of any financial instrument as held-for-trading upon initial recognition.
Hedges
This new standard specifies the criteria under which hedge accounting can be applied and how hedge
accounting can be executed for each of the permitted hedging strategies: fair-value hedges, cash-flow
hedges and hedges of a foreign currency exposure of a net investment in a self-sustaining foreign operation.
In a fair-value hedging relationship, the carrying value of the hedging item is adjusted by gains or losses
attributed to the hedged risk and recognized in net income. This change in fair value of the hedging item, to
the extent that the hedging relationship is effective, is offset by changes in the fair value of the derivative. In
a cash-flow hedging relationship, the effective portion of the change in the fair value of the hedging
derivative will be recognized in other comprehensive income. The ineffective portion will be recognized in
net income. The amounts recognized in other comprehensive income will be reclassified to net income in
the periods in which net income is affected by the variability in the cash flows of the hedged item. In
hedging a foreign currency exposure of a net investment in a self-sustaining foreign operation, foreign
exchange gains and losses on the hedged instrument will be recognized in other comprehensive income.
- 15 -
Outstanding Share Data
Common shares and convertible securities outstanding at March 20, 2007 were:
Security
Expiry
Dates
Exercise
Prices
Common
Shares on
Exercise
Cdn$ (000’s)
Common shares 103,463
Warrants Mar 22, 2007 to Oct 23, 2011 $0.70 to $9.00 29,192
Share options May 2, 2010 to Jan 12, 2012 $0.60 to $8.93 7,420
140,075
Disclosure Controls and Procedures
Further to the issue of Multilateral Instrument 52-109, "Certification of Disclosure in Issuers' Annual and
Interim Filings" by the Canadian Securities Administrators, Canadian public companies are required to
submit annual and interim certificates relating to the effectiveness of the issuer’s disclosure controls and
procedures. Such controls and procedures should be designed to provide reasonable assurance that all
relevant information is gathered and reported to senior management, including the Chief Executive Officer
and the Chief Financial Officer, on a timely basis, to allow management’s review and discussion so that
appropriate decisions can be made prior to the timely public disclosure of the information.
As of December 31, 2006, management has evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of the
disclosure controls and procedures as defined by Multilateral Instrument 52-109. This evaluation was
performed under the supervision of and with the participation of the Chief Executive Officer and the Chief
Financial Officer. Based on this evaluation, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer
concluded that the design and operation of the disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of
December 31, 2006.
Internal Control Over Financial Reporting
The Certification Instrument also requires a reporting issuer to submit an annual certificate relating to the
design of internal control over financial reporting. Internal control over financial reporting is a process
designed by management to provide reasonable assurance regarding the reliability of financial reporting and
the preparation of financial statements in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting
principles. As part of this process, management, including the CEO and the CFO, has evaluated the design
of the internal control over financial reporting at December 31, 2006 and based on this evaluation,
management has concluded that the design of internal control over financial reporting was effective as of
December 31, 2006.
Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting
Under the provisions of Multilateral Instrument 52-109, a reporting issuer is also required to disclose in
their MD&A any change in internal control over financial reporting during the most recent fiscal quarter
that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect internal control over financial
reporting.
Management has determined that there have been no changes in internal control over financial reporting that
have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, the internal control over financial
reporting.
Forward-Looking Information
Certain statements in this Management’s Discussion and Analysis of financial condition and results of
operations contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities
legislation, which reflects management’s expectations regarding the Corporation’s future growth, results of
operations, performance and business prospects and opportunities. Such forward-looking statements reflect
management’s current beliefs and are based on information currently available to management. Forwardlooking
statements can be identified by the use of words such as “expects”, “plans”, “will”, “believe”,
“estimates”, “intends”, “may”, “bodes”, and other words of similar meaning. Should known or unknown
risks or uncertainties materialize, or should management’s assumptions prove inaccurate, actual results could
vary materially from those anticipated. Many factors could cause results to differ materially from the results
discussed in the forward-looking statements, including risks related to dependence on key suppliers,
economic conditions, competition, regulatory change, molybdenum and other commodity prices, foreign
exchange rates, and interest rates, change in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, possible
variations of ore grade, failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated, and other risks of
the mining industry, delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion of
development or construction activities, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled “Narrative
Description of Business – Risks Factors” of the Corporation’s Annual Information Form for the year ended
December 31, 2006 to be filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada. Although the forwardlooking
statements are based on what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, the Corporation
cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. These
forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this report, and the Corporation does not assume any
obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances. Accordingly, readers should not
place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
March 26, 2007

[Firsteven]

http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/2006FS.pdf

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.

Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006

Management’s Responsibility for Financial Reporting
The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared by management and are in
accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. Other information contained in
this document has also been prepared by management and is consistent with the data contained in the
consolidated financial statements. A system of internal control is maintained by management to
provide reasonable assurance that assets are safeguarded and financial information is accurate and
reliable.
The board of directors approves the financial statements and ensures that management discharges its
financial responsibilities. The board’s review is accomplished principally through the audit committee,
which is comprised of non-executive directors. The audit committee meets periodically with
management and the auditors to review financial reporting and control matters.
The consolidated financial statements have been audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP on behalf of
the shareholders and their report follows.
(signed) Kevin Loughrey (signed) Derek Price
Kevin Loughrey Derek Price
President and Chief Executive Officer Vice President Finance and Chief Financial
Officer
March 26, 2007
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Chartered Accountants
PricewaterhouseCoopers Place
250 Howe Street, Suite 700
Vancouver, British Columbia
Canada V6C 3S7
Telephone [phone]
Facsimile [phone]
Auditors’ Report
To the Shareholders of Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.
We have audited the consolidated balance sheet of Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. as at December 31,
2006 and the consolidated statements of operations and deficit and cash flows for the year then
ended. These financial statements are the responsibility of the Company’s management. Our
responsibility is to express an opinion on these financial statements based on our audit.
We conducted our audit in accordance with Canadian generally accepted auditing standards.
Those standards require that we plan and perform an audit to obtain reasonable assurance
whether the financial statements are free of material misstatement. An audit includes
examining, on a test basis, evidence supporting the amounts and disclosures in the financial
statements. An audit also includes assessing the accounting principles used and significant
estimates made by management, as well as evaluating the overall financial statement
presentation.
In our opinion, these consolidated financial statements present fairly, in all material respects,
the financial position of the Company as at December 31, 2006 and the results of its
operations and its cash flows for the year then ended in accordance with Canadian generally
accepted accounting principles.
The financial statements as at December 31, 2005, and for the year then ended, were audited
by predecessor auditors who expressed an opinion without reservation on those statements in
their report dated February 27, 2006, except for Note 13 which was at March 17, 2006.
(signed) PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Chartered Accountants
Vancouver, British Columbia
March 26, 2007
PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to the Canadian firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International
Limited, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
- 3 -
Consolidated Balance Sheets
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands)
Note 2006 2005
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 98,059 $ 6,915
Accounts receivable 84,476 272
Product inventory 131,269 -
Material and supplies inventory 25,498 -
Prepaid expenses 3,015 20
Income taxes recoverable 6 1,195 -
Future income and mining taxes 6 468 -
343,980 7,207
Property, plant and equipment 5 480,187 1,159
Reclamation deposits 17 23,005 -
Restricted cash 8 8,081 31
Deferred finance fees 13,267 -
Future income and mining taxes 6 20,902 -
Goodwill 4 46,322 -
$ 935,744 $ 8,397
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 38,794 $ 1,348
Income taxes payable 6 30,602 -
Current portion of long-term debt 7 77,284 -
Future income and mining taxes 6 17,237 -
163,917 1,348
Long-term debt 7 333,789 -
Asset retirement obligations 17 25,992 193
Sales contract liability 9 11,421 -
Severance and retention 8 8,008 -
Future income and mining taxes 6 168,566 -
711,693 1,541
Shareholders' Equity
Common shares 10 210,857 11,867
Warrants 10 35,445 646
Contributed surplus 10 14,953 422
Deficit (27,579) (6,936)
Foreign currency translation adjustment (9,625) 857
224,051 6,856
$ 935,744 $ 8,397
Commitments and Contingencies 20
Approved on behalf of the Board:
(signed) (signed)
Kevin Loughrey Denis Arsenault
Director Director
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
- 4 -
Consolidated Statements of Loss
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars and share amounts in thousands, except per share amounts)
Note 2006 2005
Revenues
Molybdenum sales $ 147,676 $ -
Tolling and calcining 3,167 -
150,843 -
Cost of sales
Operating expenses 139,115 -
Selling and marketing 1,239 -
Depreciation and depletion 4,718 -
Accretion 27 -
145,099 -
Income from mining operations 5,744 -
Other (income) expenses
General and administrative 4,568 1,470
Exploration and development 8,635 2,313
Interest and finance fees 9,139 -
Stock-based compensation 10 14,547 434
Interest income (1,183) (139)
Other 13 (1,047) 35
34,659 4,113
Loss before income taxes (28,915) (4,113)
Income and mining taxes (recoverable)
Current 6 23,133 -
Future 6 (31,405) -
(8,272) -
Net loss $ (20,643) $ (4,113)
Loss per share – basic and diluted $ (0.36) $ (0.13)
Weighted-average number of shares outstanding 57,688 31,879
Consolidated Statements of Deficit
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands)
2006 2005
Balance, beginning of year $ (6,936) $ (2,823)
Net loss (20,643) (4,113)
Balance, end of year $ (27,579) $ (6,936)
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.
- 5 -
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands)
Note 2006 2005
Operating Activities
Net loss $ (20,643) $ (4,113)
Items not affecting cash:
Depreciation and depletion 4,718 -
Accretion 27 -
Amortization of finance fees 406 -
Stock-based compensation 14,547 434
Future income and mining taxes (31,405) -
Unrealized derivative losses 660 -
Gain on sale of marketable securities - (2)
Change in non cash working capital 12 107,134 958
Cash generated by (used in) operating activities 75,444 (2,723)
Investing Activities
Property, plant and equipment (4,514) -
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired 4 (600,428) (874)
Restricted cash (138) -
Proceeds from disposition of marketable securities - 11
Reclamation deposit (235) (31)
Cash used in investing activities (605,315) (894)
Financing Activities
Equity issues 10 233,701 9,822
Long term debt 7 401,855 -
Finance fees (13,673) -
Repayments of long-term debt (367) -
Cash generated by financing activities 621,516 9,822
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash (501) -
Increase in cash and cash equivalents 91,144 6,205
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of year 6,915 710
Cash and cash equivalents, end of year $ 98,059 $ 6,915
Supplementary cash flow information 12
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 6 -
1. Description of Business
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (“Blue Pearl” or “the Corporation”) is a Canadian mining company with
molybdenum mines and processing facilities in Canada and the United States. In October 2006, the
Corporation acquired Thompson Creek Metals Company and its subsidiaries (“Thompson Creek” or
“TCMC”), a private company with producing molybdenum mines and processing facilities in Canada and the
United States for $575,000 at closing plus $61,529 on subsequent collection of certain TCMC receivables.
This acquisition is further described in Note 4 to these consolidated financial statements.
In 2005, Blue Pearl acquired the Davidson molybdenum property near Smithers, British Columbia at an
initial cost of $874. Production is expected from the Davidson mine in 2008 and operating synergies are
expected by using the newly acquired Endako facility, which is within trucking distance, to process the
Davidson ore. This acquisition is further described in Note 4 to these consolidated financial statements.
2. Significant Accounting Policies
a) Principles of Consolidation
These consolidated financial statements include the accounts of the Corporation and its subsidiaries. The
principal subsidiaries of the Corporation are:
Thompson Creek Metals Company
Langeloth Metallurgical Company LLC
Thompson Creek Mining Company
Cyprus Thompson Creek Mining Company
Thompson Creek Mining Ltd.
Blue Pearl Mining Inc.
These consolidated financial statements also include the Corporation’s pro rata share of its 75% joint venture
interest in the Endako Mine Joint Venture (“Endako”).
The results of operations for Thompson Creek, and the effect on the consolidated cash flows, have been
included from the date of acquisition, October 26, 2006, to December 31, 2006. The financial position and
results of operations for Thompson Creek include the Corporation’s proportionate share of its joint venture
interest in Endako.
The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared according to Canadian generally
accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). All financial figures are presented in United States dollars unless
otherwise stated.
All intercompany accounts and transactions have been eliminated on consolidation.
b) Cash and Cash Equivalents
The Corporation considers all highly liquid instruments purchased with an original maturity of three months
or less to be cash equivalents.
c) Accounts Receivable
Accounts receivable are carried at the lower of cost or net realizable value. The receivables are reviewed on
a periodic basis to determine collectibility. Collectibility is determined on an individual customer basis
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 7 -
based on payment history, age of the receivable and credit worthiness of the customer. Receivables are
written off as they are determined to be uncollectible.
d) Inventories
Product inventories are carried at the lower of cost or net realizable value. Cost is the production costs for
ore produced from the Corporation’s mines and the amount paid for unfinished product from third parties.
Production costs include the costs of materials, direct labour, mine-site overhead and depreciation and
depletion. Materials and supplies inventories are carried at the lower of cost or replacement cost.
The Corporation recorded the inventory acquired as part of the Thompson Creek acquisition at the current
market price less cost to sell and an allowance for a profit margin for the selling effort.
e) Property, Plant and Equipment
Plant and equipment are recorded at cost. The cost of normal maintenance and repairs to maintain mining
equipment and processing facilities is charged to earnings as incurred.
Buildings and machinery are depreciated on a unit-of-production basis using proven and probable reserves.
Mobile and other equipment are depreciated on a straight-line basis over the shorter of their estimated useful
life and the life of the mine.
Mineral resource properties and mine site land are recorded at cost and are depleted on a unit-of-production
basis using proven and probable reserves.
Assets under construction are recorded at cost and are not depreciated until they are brought into operational
use.
The Corporation performs impairment tests on its property, plant and equipment when events or changes in
circumstances indicate that the carrying value of the assets may not be recoverable. These tests compare
expected undiscounted future cash flows from these assets to their carrying value. If shortfalls exist, assets
are written down to the discounted value of the future cash flows based on the Corporation’s average cost of
borrowing.
Expenditures for stripping are charged to expense as incurred.
Property acquisition costs are capitalized. Exploration and development expenditures are expensed until a
feasibility study has been completed that indicates the property is economically feasible.
f) Reclamation Deposits
As part of its management of the risks related to the final reclamation of the mine sites, the Corporation
maintains cash deposits whose use is restricted to the funding of reclamation costs. The reclamation deposits
are required under a reclamation insurance policy that the Corporation has purchased for its Thompson Creek
Mine site. For the Endako Mine, the Corporation has placed cash on deposit to fund reclamation costs
required by the reclamation plan approved by the government authorities. These reclamation deposits are
recorded as a non-current asset.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 8 -
g) Asset Retirement Obligations
Future obligations to retire an asset including dismantling, remediation and ongoing treatment and
monitoring of the site are initially recognized and recorded as a liability at fair value based on the
Corporation’s current credit adjusted risk-free discount rate and an estimate for inflation factor. The liability
is adjusted for changes in the expected amounts and timing of cash flows required to discharge the liability
and accreted to full value over time through periodic charges to earnings. The amount of the asset retirement
liability initially recognized is capitalized as part of the asset’s carrying value and amortized over the asset’s
estimated useful life. Future asset retirement obligations are only recorded when the timing or amount of
remediation costs can be reasonable estimated.
h) Revenue Recognition
The Corporation recognizes revenue from molybdenum sales upon the transfer of title of the metal to third
parties and when collection is reasonably assured. The Corporation recognizes tolling revenue and calcining
revenue under contractual arrangements when the services are performed.
i) Income and Mining Taxes
The Corporation uses the liability method of accounting for income and mining taxes. Under the liability
method, future tax assets and liabilities are recognized for the future tax consequences attributable to
differences between the financial statement carrying amounts of existing assets and liabilities and their
respective tax bases and for tax losses and other deductions carried forward.
Future tax assets and liabilities are measured using enacted or substantively enacted tax rates expected to
apply when the asset is realized or the liability is settled. A reduction in respect of the potential benefit of a
future tax asset (a valuation allowance) is recorded if it is not more likely than not to be realized. The effect
on future tax assets and liabilities of a change in tax rates is recognized in income in the period in which the
change is substantively enacted.
j) Derivative Instruments
The Corporation, in connection with the acquisition of Thompson Creek, has acquired forward contracts by
which it fixes the rates for the exchange of currency. The Corporation has also acquired an agreement under
which it will be required to sell certain future molybdenum production at a price that may be less than the
prevailing market price. The Corporation does not consider any of these agreements to be hedges for
accounting purposes. As such, the Corporation records the fair value of these agreements in other assets or
other liabilities with the changes in fair value being included in other expenses.
k) Foreign Currency
The Corporation translates its share of its Canadian self-sustaining operations assets and liabilities at the
exchange rate in effect at the balance sheet date. Revenues and expenses are translated at the average
exchange rate that prevailed during the period. Translation adjustments resulting from this process are
shown separately in shareholders' equity.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 9 -
l) Use of Estimates
Management makes estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities,
disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts
of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates.
Significant estimates are used for certain items such as fair values used to establish the purchase price
allocation, reserve and production quantities, production costs, depletion, depreciation and amortization,
mine closure and reclamation costs, impairment, asset retirement obligation assumptions, stock based
compensation and the valuation of derivatives and contingencies.
m) Goodwill
Acquisitions are accounted for using the purchase method whereby assets and liabilities acquired are
recorded at their fair values as of the date of acquisition and any excess of the purchase price over such fair
value is recorded as goodwill. Goodwill is identified and allocated to reporting units by preparing estimates
of the fair value of each reporting unit and comparing this amount to the fair value of assets and liabilities in
the reporting unit. Goodwill is not amortized. The Corporation evaluates, on at least an annual basis, the
carrying amount of goodwill to determine whether current events or changes in circumstances indicate that
such carrying amount may no longer be recoverable. To accomplish this, the Corporation compares the fair
value of its reporting units to their carrying amounts. If the carrying value of a reporting unit exceeds its fair
value, the Corporation compares the implied fair value of the reporting unit’s goodwill to its carrying
amount, and any excess of the carrying value over the fair value is charged to operations. Assumptions
underlying fair value estimates are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.
n) Loss per Share
Basic loss per share is calculated by dividing the loss for the year by the weighted average number of
common shares outstanding during the year. In years in which a loss is incurred the effect of potential
issuances of shares under options and warrants would be anti-dilutive and therefore basic and diluted losses
per share are the same. Had the Corporation been required to present diluted earnings per share, this amount
would be calculated by dividing the earnings for the year by the weighted average number of common shares
outstanding plus the number of additional common shares that would have been outstanding had the potential
dilutive common shares been issued using the treasury stock method.
o) Stock-based Compensation
The Corporation accounts for all stock based compensation using the fair value method. Under this method,
compensation costs related to options granted are measured at fair value on the date granted using a Black-
Scholes model and expensed according to the vesting provisions. Any consideration paid upon exercise of
the options is credited to share capital.
p) Flow-through Shares
The Corporation financed a portion of its exploration and development costs through the issuance of flowthrough
shares. Under the terms of these share issues, the tax attributes of the related expenditures are
renounced to the shareholders. The tax benefits foregone are considered to be share issue costs and are
included as a reduction of common shares with a corresponding increase to future income tax liabilities.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 10 -
q) Comparative Figures
Certain amounts in the consolidated financial statements have been reclassified to conform to the current
year’s presentation.
r) Recently Issued Accounting Pronouncements
Mine Stripping Costs
In March 2006, the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (“CICA”) issued EIC 160, Stripping Costs
Incurred in the Production Phase of a Mining Operation. The EIC clarifies that stripping costs should be
accounted for according to the benefit received by the entity. Generally, stripping costs should be accounted
for as variable production costs that should be included in the costs of the inventory produced (that is,
extracted) during the period that stripping costs are incurred. However, stripping costs should be capitalized
if the stripping activity can be shown to represent a betterment to the mineral property. Capitalized stripping
costs should be amortized in a rational and systematic manner over the reserves that directly benefit from the
specific stripping activity. The Corporation will be applying this standard prospectively beginning January 1,
2007 as allowed under the standard.
On January 27, 2005, the CICA issued three new accounting standards: Handbook Section 1530,
Comprehensive Income, Handbook Section 3855, Financial Instruments – Recognition and Measurement,
and Handbook Section 3865, Hedges. The Corporation will adopt these standards effective January 1, 2007.
The Corporation has not made a final determination of the potential impact of applying these new standards.
Comprehensive Income
As a result of adopting this standard, a new category, Other Comprehensive Income, will be added to
shareholders’ equity. Major components for this category will include unrealized gains and losses on
financial assets classified as available-for-sale, unrealized foreign currency translation amounts, net of
hedging, arising from self-sustaining foreign operations, and changes in the fair value of the effective portion
of cash flow hedging instruments.
Financial Instruments – Recognition and Measurement
Under this new standard, all financial instruments will be classified as one of the following: held-to-maturity
investments, loans and receivables, held-for-trading or available-for-sale. Financial assets and liabilities
held-for-trading will be measured at fair value with gains and losses recognized in net income. Financial
assets held-to-maturity, loans and receivables, and financial liabilities other than those held-for-trading, will
be measured at amortized cost. Available-for-sale instruments will be measured at fair value with unrealized
gains and losses recognized in other comprehensive income. The standard also permits the designation of
any financial instrument as held-for-trading upon initial recognition.
Hedges
This new standard specifies the criteria under which hedge accounting can be applied and how hedge
accounting can be executed for each of the permitted hedging strategies: fair-value hedges, cash-flow hedges
and hedges of a foreign currency exposure of a net investment in a self-sustaining foreign operation.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 11 -
3. Change in Reporting Currency
In connection with the acquisition of Thompson Creek, the Corporation changed its reporting currency from
Canadian dollars to US dollars, effective October 26, 2006. From the date of the acquisition of Thompson
Creek, substantially all of the Corporation’s revenues will be denominated in US dollars.
The comparative balance sheet has been translated into US dollars at the rate in effect at December 31, 2005.
The statement of loss has been translated using an average rate for the year. Shareholders’ equity has been
translated using the historic exchange rates in effect at the time of the transactions.
4. Acquisitions
Thompson Creek Metals Company
On October 26, 2006, the Corporation acquired Thompson Creek, a private company with producing
molybdenum mines and processing facilities in Canada and the United States. On closing, the Corporation
paid $575,000 in cash for all of the outstanding shares of Thompson Creek. Subsequent to the close date, the
Corporation paid an additional $61,529 to the former shareholders of Thompson Creek related to the
acquired accounts receivable pursuant to the acquisition agreement.
The Corporation is also responsible for a contingent payment to the former shareholders of Thompson Creek
that is based on the average price of molybdenum in each of 2007, 2008 and 2009. If the average price of
molybdenum is between $15 and $25 per pound for 2007, the Corporation will be required to make a
contingent payment of between $50,000 and $100,000 in early 2008. A similar calculation is made for 2008
regarding a contingent payment to be made in early 2009. However, this payment is reduced by the amount
of the first payment. The total of the two payments cannot exceed $100,000. If the average price of
molybdenum exceeds $15 per pound in 2009, then the Corporation will be required to make a final
contingent payment of $25,000 in early 2010.
The purchase price, together with closing costs of approximately $179, has been financed through:
a) On the date of the close, the Corporation issued debt as follows:
i. $340,000 variable rate first lien senior secured amortizing term loan bearing interest at LIBOR
plus 475 basis points. This loan matures on October 26, 2012.
ii. $22,500 variable rate first lien senior secured revolving line of credit bearing interest at LIBOR
plus 475 basis points. This line of credit matures on October 26, 2011.
iii. $61,855 second lien senior secured term loan bearing interest at LIBOR plus 1,000 basis points.
This loan matures on April 26, 2013. This loan does not amortize. As described in Note 21, this loan was
repaid in full in March 2007.
b) On October 26, 2006, the Corporation issued 41,860,000 shares of common stock and 20,930,000
warrants for net proceeds of $191,877 after underwriting fees and other issuing costs. Each whole common
share purchase warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at Cdn$9.00 per share until October
23, 2011.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 12 -
c) On the closing date, a former shareholder of Thompson Creek purchased, through a private placement,
7,227,182 shares of common stock and 3,613,591 warrants for proceeds of $35,352. Each warrant entitles
the holder to purchase one common share at Cdn$9.00 per share until October 23, 2011.
The Corporation has consolidated the results of operations from the acquisition date forward. The
Corporation has accounted for this acquisition as a purchase business combination with the Corporation as
the acquirer. The purchase price has been allocated on a preliminary basis to the assets acquired and
liabilities assumed based on the estimated fair values on the acquisition date. Estimated fair values will be
based on independent appraisals, discounted cash flows, quoted market prices and estimates made by
management. To the extent that the purchase price exceeds the fair value of the net identifiable tangible and
intangible assets, the Corporation has recorded goodwill. The final fair-value estimate could be materially
different from that currently being used. Management is continuing to assess the estimated fair value for
certain assets and liabilities acquired including property, plant and equipment, inventories, asset retirement
obligations, future income taxes and intangible assets, the valuations of which are less advanced due to the
inherent complexities associated with their valuations.
Preliminary Purchase Price Allocation
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 36,280
Property, plant and equipment 490,032
Product inventory 195,883
Material and supplies inventory 26,503
Accounts receivable 83,733
Reclamation deposits 22,727
Restricted cash 7,578
Other assets 3,851
Goodwill 46,989
913,576
Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 25,927
Long term debt 9,585
Asset retirement obligation 25,651
Future tax liability 197,119
Sales contract liability 11,175
Other liabilities 7,411
276,868
Net assets acquired $ 636,708
Purchase price payment
Paid on closing $ 575,000
Paid subsequent to closing 61,529
Costs 179
$ 636,708
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 13 -
Davidson Project
In April 2005, the Corporation acquired 100% interest in the Davidson Project, a molybdenum deposit, for
$846 in cash and other transaction costs of $28. In addition to the initial payment, the Corporation will be
required to make annual advance royalty payments to the former owners that will range from $90 to $445 per
year depending on the world price of molybdenum, and a 2.75% net smelter royalty on future production.
5. Property, Plant and Equipment
2006 2005
Mining properties and land $ 255,751 $ -
Mining equipment 128,468 -
Processing facilities 104,713 -
Development properties 1,553 1,137
Other 98 31
490,583 1,168
Less accumulated depreciation and depletion (10,396) (9)
$ 480,187 $ 1,159
6. Income and Mining Taxes
2006 2005
Current income and mining taxes $ 23,133 $ -
Future income and mining taxes (recoverable) (31,405) -
$ (8,272) $ -
Income and mining taxes differ from the amount that would result from applying the Canadian federal and
provincial income tax rates to earnings before income taxes. The differences result from the following items:
2006 2005
Loss before income taxes $ (28,915) $ (4,113)
Combined Canadian federal and provincial income tax rates 34.12% 36.12%
Income and mining taxes (recoverable) based on above rates (9,866) (1,485)
Increase (decrease) to income taxes due to:
Difference in statutory tax rates on earnings of foreign
operations
(977)
-
Provincial and state mining taxes 997 -
Non-deductible expenses 3,026 154
Resource allowance (678) -
Depletion allowance (5,824) -
Change in valuation allowance 2,528 1,331
Other 2,522 -
Income and mining taxes (recoverable) $ (8,272) $ -
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 14 -
Future Income and Mining Taxes
Future income and mining taxes arise from temporary differences in the recognition of income and expenses
for financial reporting and tax purposes. The significant components of future tax assets and liabilities at
December 31 are as follows:
2006 2005
Future income and mining tax assets – current
Working capital $ 468 $ -
Future income and mining tax assets – non-current
Tax losses $ 4,773 $ 2,220
Property, plant and equipment 2,114 807
Asset retirement obligations 9,661 -
Share issuance costs 3,572 -
Investments - 42
Other deductible temporary differences 10,540 2
Valuation allowance (9,758) (3,071)
$ 20,902 $ -
Future income and mining tax liabilities – current
Inventory $ (14,960) $ -
Other taxable temporary differences (2,277) -
$ (17,237) $ -
Future income tax liabilities – non-current
Property, plant and equipment $ (164,771) $ -
Other taxable temporary differences (3,795) -
$ (168,566) $ -
Net future income and mining tax liabilities $ (164,433) $ -
Tax Loss Carry Forwards
At December 31, 2006, the Corporation has the following loss carry forwards available for tax purposes
(losses shown by tax jurisdiction and year of expiry).
Canada
Non-capital Losses
United States
Operating Losses
2007 $ 336 $ -
2008 907 -
2009 480 -
2010 392 -
2011 - -
Thereafter 6,753 7,057
$ 8,868 $ 7,057
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 15 -
The Corporation has $8,215 in capital losses available in Canada that can be carried forward indefinitely but
can only apply these losses against future capital gains. A full valuation allowance has been recorded against
the potential future income tax assets associated with the Canadian tax loss carry-forwards as their utilization
is not considered more likely than not.
7. Long-term Debt
Long-term debt consists of:
2006 2005
First Lien Senior Secured $ 340,000 $ -
Second Lien Senior Secured 61,855 -
Equipment loans 9,218 -
411,073 -
Less: current portion (77,284) -
$ 333,789 $ -
As described in Note 4, the Corporation entered into the first lien senior secured and second lien senior
secured loan agreements in connection with the acquisition of Thompson Creek. The assets of TCMC
provide collateral for these loans. The first lien senior secured loan requires quarterly principal payments. In
addition to the regular principal payments, the Corporation is required to make additional principal payments
upon the issuance of equity. This agreement requires additional principal repayments each year if cash
flows, as defined in the loan agreement, in the year exceed the ongoing capital and operating requirements,
as defined in the loan agreement, of the Corporation. This loan is scheduled to mature on October 26, 2012.
This loan bears interest at LIBOR plus 475 basis points. At December 31, 2006, the interest rate was 10.1%.
The second lien senior secured loan has no required principal repayments prior to maturity and matures on
April 26, 2013. This loan bears interest at LIBOR plus 1,000 basis points. At December 31, 2006, the
interest rate was 15.4%. As described in Note 21, this loan was repaid in March 2007.
Thompson Creek has entered into variable rate loan agreements to finance the purchase of certain mining
equipment. The mining equipment is collateral for the loan. Each of these loans requires regular principal
repayments and mature no later than 2010. These loans bear interest at LIBOR plus 200 basis points. At
December 31, 2006, the interest rate for these loans was 7.4%.
Maturities of long-term debt obligations are as follows:
Senior
Secured
Equipment
Loans Total
Year ending December 31:
2007 $ 75,000 $ 2,284 $ 77,284
2008 75,000 2,353 77,353
2009 75,000 2,423 77,423
2010 50,000 2,158 52,158
2011 35,000 - 35,000
Thereafter 91,855 - 91,855
$ 401,855 $ 9,218 $ 411,073
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 16 -
Revolving Credit Line
The First Lien Senior Secured Loan facility includes a $22,500 revolving secured line of credit. The
revolving line of credit matures on October 26, 2011 and bears interest at LIBOR plus 475 basis points. At
December 31, 2006, the revolving line of credit was unutilized.
8. Severance and Retention
Prior to its acquisition by the Corporation, Thompson Creek established a trust fund in order to fund the
future obligations related to an employee severance and retention program. The severance and retention
program is based on production at the Thompson Creek mine and is payable at the earliest of June 30, 2012,
termination (except for cause) or retirement. The Corporation recorded the fair value of the trust fund and
the fair value of the liability to pay the bonus and severance upon the acquisition of Thompson Creek. The
Corporation makes ongoing contributions to the trust. The trust funds are classified as restricted cash and
totaled $8,081 at December 31, 2006. The liability has been presented as a long-term severance and
retention liability and was $8,008 at December 31, 2006.
9. Sales Contract Liability
Prior to the acquisition, TCMC entered into a contract to sell 10% of certain production at the Thompson
Creek Mine at an amount that may be less than the then prevailing market price. Deliveries under the
contract will commence in 2007 and end in 2011. As part of the allocation of the purchase price of TCMC,
the Corporation recorded a liability of $11,175 related to this contract. The Corporation considers this
agreement to be a derivative instrument and as such records the estimated fair value at each balance sheet
date with the resulting change in fair value being included in the determination of income through the other
expense category. At December 31, 2006, the fair value was $11,421 which resulted in an unrealized loss of
$246 being included in other expenses for the year.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 17 -
10. Shareholders' Equity
a) Common Shares
A summary of common share transactions is as follows:
Number of
Common Shares
(000’s)
Amount
At December 31, 2004 23,259 $ 3,394
Private placements 19,410 9,341
Less: share issue costs - (983)
Options exercised 410 115
At December 31, 2005 43,079 11,867
Private placements 1,585 2,921
Equity issue 49,087 203,050
Less: share issue costs - (11,647)
Warrants exercised 5,547 4,093
Options exercised 1,230 573
At December 31, 2006 100,528 $ 210,857
In February 2006, the Corporation closed a private placement of 500,000 non-flow-through purchase receipts
at a price of Cdn$0.80 per unit for gross proceeds of $356. Each unit consists of one common share, one “A”
warrant and 0.4 of one “B” warrant. Each whole “A” warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common
share at a price of Cdn$1.00 and each whole “B” warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share
at a price of Cdn$0.80 for two years from the closing of the private placement.
In April 2006, the Corporation closed a private placement of 1,085,000 flow-through common shares priced
at Cdn$2.85 per share for gross proceeds of $2,749. Blue Pearl also issued compensation warrants entitling
the agents to purchase 76,000 common shares at Cdn$2.85 per share until April 5, 2008.
On October 26, 2006, in connection with the acquisition of Thompson Creek, the Corporation issued
41,860,000 common shares and 20,930,000 warrants for net proceeds of $191,877. Additionally, the
Corporation issued 7,227,182 common shares and 3,613,591 warrants to a former shareholder of Thompson
Creek for gross proceeds of $35,352. The warrants entitle the holder to purchase one common share at a
price of Cdn $9.00 until October 23, 2011.
In March 2005, the Corporation closed a brokered private placement of 13,834,000 common shares at
Cdn$0.60, and 3,077,000 flow-through common shares at Cdn$0.65 for total gross proceeds of $8,502. Each
non-flow through unit consists of one common share and one-half of a common share purchase warrant.
Each whole warrant is exercisable into one common share at a price of Cdn$0.70 per share. The warrants
issued in the private placement have been valued at $380. The agents of the offering were paid a cash
commission of 7% of the gross proceeds and were granted 1,690,000 agents’ warrants which are exercisable
into common share under the same terms as the warrants attached to the non-flow through units. The agents’
warrants have been valued at $247, and are included as part of share issue costs. These warrants and agents’
warrants expired on March 22, 2007.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 18 -
In August 2005 the Corporation closed a brokered private placement of 2,500,000 units at Cdn$0.60 per unit
for proceeds of $1,238. Each unit is comprised of one common share and one-half of a common share
purchase warrant. Each whole common share purchase warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common
share at a price of Cdn$0.70 until March 22, 2007.
b) Warrants
A summary of the transactions in the warrants account is as follows:
Number of
Warrants
(000’s)
Amount
At December 31, 2004 - $ -
Private placements (i) 9,858 646
At December 31, 2005 9,858 646
Private placement (ii) 700 184
Agent compensation warrants (iii) 76 110
Issuance (iv) 24,543 37,064
Issue costs - (1,989)
Exercise of warrants (5,547) (570)
At December 31, 2006 29,630 $ 35,445
i. The warrants issued in March 2005 have been valued at $380. The agent’s warrants issued in March
2005 have been valued at $247. The warrants issued in August 2005 have been valued at $19. In
determining the value of the warrants, a Black-Scholes option pricing model has been used with the
following weighted average assumptions: dividend yield of 0%; expected volatility of 40%; risk-free
interest rate of 3.05%; and, expected life of 12 months.
ii. The Corporation determined the amount to be allocated based on the pro rata allocation of the fair value
of the common shares issued and the estimated fair value of the warrants based on the Black-Scholes
model.
iii. The Corporation determined the fair value of the agents’ warrants offered to the agents in connection
with the April 2006 private placement as compensation by the Black-Scholes model. The assumptions
used to determine the fair value included an expected life of 14 months, expected volatility of 128%, risk
free interest rate of 4.31% and an expected dividend of 0%.
iv. The Corporation determined the amount to be allocated based on the pro rata allocation of the fair value
of the common shares issued and the estimated fair value of the warrants based on the Black-Scholes
model. The assumptions used in determining the fair value of the warrants included an expected life of 5
years, expected volatility of 45.8%, risk free interest rate of 4.02% and an expected dividend of 0%.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 19 -
c) Contributed surplus and stock-based compensation
Amount
At December 31, 2004 $ 19
Options granted 403
Options exercised -
At December 31, 2005 422
Options granted 14,619
Options exercised (88)
At December 31, 2006 $ 14,953
The Corporation uses the fair value method of accounting and recognized an expense of $14,547 (2005 –
$434) for its stock-based compensation plan.
The fair value of the 310,000 options granted in 2006 prior to the acquisition of Thompson Creek was
estimated on the date of grant using the Black-Scholes option pricing model with the following
assumptions:
Expected life: 2 years
Risk free interest rate 3.83%
Expected volatility 128%
Dividend yield 0.0%
The Corporation issued 6,475,000 stock options in November and December 2006 subsequent to the
acquisition of Thompson Creek. The Corporation determined that its historic volatility was based on being
an exploration company instead of the operating company it became upon the acquisition of Thompson
Creek. For its grants in November and December, the Corporation used an expected volatility that was
determined using an operating mining company peer group average. As required, the Corporation has used
the contractual life of the stock options in determining the fair value in the absence of reliable evidence to
support a shorter useful life. 90,000 of the 6,475,000 options granted have a contractual life of one year.
The fair value of the option grants made subsequent to the acquisition of Thompson Creek were estimated
on the date of grant using the Black-Scholes option pricing model with the following weighted average
assumptions:
Expected life: 1 year 5 years
Risk free interest rate 3.99% 3.93%
Expected volatility 52.6% 45.4%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0%
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 20 -
A summary of changes in the outstanding stock options is as follows:
Options
Outstanding
(000’s)
Weighted-average
Exercise Price
(Cdn$)
At December 31, 2004 1,160 $ 0.29
Granted 3,346 0.63
Exercised (410) 0.34
At December 31, 2005 4,096 0.57
Granted 6,785 7.25
Exercised (1,230) 0.44
At December 31, 2006 9,651 $ 5.28
The following table summarizes information about the options outstanding at December 31, 2006:
Exercise Price
(Cdn$)
Options
Outstanding
(000’s)
Contractual
Life
(years)
Options
Exercisable
(000’s)
$0.70 740 3.34 740
$0.60 2,076 3.61 2,076
$0.73 50 3.82 50
$2.94 310 4.21 310
$7.42 6,225 4.86 4,258
$8.29 250 4.92 83
9,651 7,517
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 21 -
11. Joint Venture
Endako Molybdenum Mine Joint Venture is an unincorporated joint venture in which the Corporation has a
75% interest. The Corporation acquired its interest in this joint venture as part of its acquisition of
Thompson Creek.
The following is a summary of the Corporation’s 75% pro-rata share of the assets, liabilities, revenue,
expenses, net earnings and cash flows of the joint venture.
Assets
Current assets $ 58,873
Property, plant and equipment, net $ 138,764
Other long-term assets $ 24,866
Liabilities
Current liabilities $ 23,324
Other liabilities $ 58,444
Revenue $ 42,275
Cost of sales $ 35,097
Net earnings $ 1,739
Cash flows
Operating $ 10,200
Investing $ (160)
Financing $ -
12. Supplementary Cash Flow Information
2006 2005
Change in non-cash working capital
Accounts receivable $ (1,138) $ (218)
Product inventory 65,421 -
Material and supplies inventory 766 -
Prepaid expenses (1,447) (52)
Income taxes recoverable 968 -
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 22,802 1,228
Income taxes payable 19,762 -
$ 107,134 $ 958
Cash interest paid $ 1,408 $ -
Cash income taxes paid $ 2,500 $ -
Cash and cash equivalents is comprised of:
Cash $ 28,536 $ 6,915
Cash equivalents 69,523 -
$ 98,059 $ 6,915
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 22 -
13. Other Income and Expenses
2006 2005
Gains on foreign currency $ (2,232) $ -
Unrealized derivative loss 660 -
Management fees (176) -
Other 701 35
$ (1,047) $ 35
14. Related Party Transactions
Under the Endako joint venture agreement, all production from Endako is sold by the joint venture partners,
acting as agents for the joint venture. Consolidated sales to Sojitz Moly Resources, (“Sojitz”) one of the
venturers in the Endako joint venture were approximately $21,106 for the year ended December 31, 2006.
Sojitz is paid a 1% commission on all sales from Endako.
Office administration fees of $287 (2005 - $245) were incurred from Glencairn Gold Corporation, a
company related through certain common directors and management, for rent and various office services
provided by it. Included in accounts payable at December 31, 2006 is $31 (2005 - $24) owing to this
company.
15. Derivative Instruments
The Corporation enters into forward currency contracts in order to reduce the impact of certain foreign
currency fluctuations related to the operations of Endako. The forward currency contracts provide protection
to the Corporation from fluctuations in the Canadian dollar. The terms of the contracts are less than one year.
As of December 31, 2006, the Corporation had open forward currency contracts with a total commitment to
purchase Cdn$22,631 at an average rate of US$0.89. As a result of these forward contracts not qualifying for
hedge accounting, the Corporation recognizes all derivative instruments on the balance sheet at their fair
values, a liability of approximately $571 at December 31, 2006, and changes in fair value are recognized
immediately in earnings. The Corporation recognized a loss of approximately $670 due to recording the
forward contracts at fair value on December 31, 2006. This loss is recorded in other income and expenses.
The Corporation has entered in an agreement with Sojitz in which the Corporation will sell to Sojitz up to
10% of certain production from the Thompson Creek Mine. The price to be paid by Sojitz will vary
depending on the production costs and the current market price of molybdenum. The Corporation expects to
sell molybdenum to Sojitz from 2007 to 2011 under the terms of this agreement. The Corporation recorded
$11,175 as the fair value of this agreement upon the acquisition of Thompson Creek. At December 31, 2006,
$11,421 has been reported as a sales contract liability related to this agreement (see Note 9).
16. Retirement Savings Plans
The Corporation’s 401(k) Savings Plan (the "Plan") is a defined contribution plan and covers all US
employees based at TCMC. The Plan is subject to the provisions of the Employee Retirement Income
Security Act of 1974 ("ERISA"), as amended, and Section 401(k) of the Internal Revenue Code.
The assets of the Plan are held and the related investment transactions are executed by the Plan's trustee.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 23 -
Participants in the Plan have numerous investment alternatives in which to place their funds. Administrative
fees, including accounting and attorney fees, are paid by the Corporation on behalf of the Plan. The
Corporation may make contributions to the Plan at its sole discretion. The Corporation contributed
approximately $169 to the Plan for the year ended December 31, 2006.
Endako maintains a defined contribution plan (the "Endako Plan") covering all of its employees. The assets
of the Endako Plan are held and the related investment transactions are executed by the Endako Plan's
trustee. Administrative fees, including any accounting and legal fees are paid by Endako on behalf of the
Endako Plan. For the year ended December 31, 2006, Endako contributed $97 to the Endako Plan and the
Corporation has recorded its proportionate share of such contribution.
17. Asset Retirement Obligation
Minimum standards for mine reclamation have been established by federal, state and provincial government
agencies.
The following is a summary of the Corporation’s mine closure and reclamation liabilities for TCM, Endako,
and the Davidson Project:
Thompson
Creek Endako
Davidson
Project Total
At December 31, 2004 $ - $ - $ - $ -
Increase in liability due to
development -
-
193
193
Accretion expense - - - -
At December 31, 2005 - - 193 193
Acquisition (Note 4) 20,684 4,967 - 25,651
Accretion 245 69 12 326
Currency exchange - (172) (6) (178)
At December 31, 2006 $ 20,929 $ 4,864 $ 199 $ 25,992
The Corporation is not aware of any material non-compliance with environmental laws and regulations. The
exact nature of environmental issues and costs, if any, which the Corporation may encounter in the future
cannot be predicted, primarily because of the changing character of environmental requirements that may be
enacted by governmental agencies.
As part of the TCMC acquisition, the Corporation acquired a Mine Reclamation Insurance Policy. The
program will provide the Corporation with an aggregate limit of $35,000 for the reclamation of the
Thompson Creek property including $18,481 of deposits recorded as reclamation deposits at December 31,
2006. The aggregate limit will be reduced as the policy is used to pay actual reclamation costs incurred.
This risk transfer benefit will respond in the event that the actual cost of reclamation exceeds the current
anticipated reclamation cost estimate due to unexpected conditions or changes in regulatory requirements.
As of December 31, 2006, the Corporation estimates that the non-discounted inflation-adjusted reclamation
cost of the Thompson Creek mine will total $29,332. The policy term is for 20 years, expiring July 31, 2022.
The Corporation will pay the final annual installment premium in the amount of $1,644 on July 30, 2007.
The ultimate reclamation costs have been discounted using a rate of 6.9% which reflects their funding
arrangements.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 24 -
As part of the TCMC acquisition, the Corporation acquired a reclamation and closure plan for Endako that
has been approved by the British Columbia Ministry of Energy and Mines "MEM". The MEM requires a
reclamation bond of $5,681 of which the Corporation’s proportionate share is $4,261. This amount was fully
funded prior to the acquisition of TCMC by the Corporation and is reflected in the reclamation deposit. The
ultimate reclamation costs have been discounted using a rate of 6.6% which reflects their funding
arrangements.
The Davidson Project is under development. Future undiscounted cash obligations, estimated by
management to be approximately $263, which will be incurred after the mine closes, have resulted from the
disturbance to the site caused by development activities. The estimated cash flows were discounted using a
rate of 6.5% which reflects its funding arrangements.
It is possible the Corporation’s estimate of its ultimate reclamation, site restoration and closure liability could
change due to possible changes in laws and regulations and changes in cost estimates. As part of the
acquisition of Thompson Creek, the Corporation acquired an insurance policy for financial assurance of the
mine reclamation activities.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 25 -
18. Segment Information
The Corporation operates in a single industry segment - the mining, milling, roasting and sale of
molybdenum products. Geographic segment information for the year ended and at December 31, 2006 is
comprised of the following:
US
Operations
Canadian
Operations Corporate Total
Revenues
Molybdenum sales $ 105,401 $ 42,275 $ - $ 147,676
Tolling and calcining 3,167 - - 3,167
108,568 42,275 - 150,843
Cost of sales
Operating expenses 106,314 32,801 - 139,115
Selling and marketing 397 842 - 1,239
Depreciation and depletion 3,259 1,450 9 4,718
Accretion 11 4 12 27
109,981 35,097 21 145,099
Income (loss) from mining operations $ (1,413) $ 7,178 (21) 5,744
Other (income) expense
General and administrative 4,568 4,568
Exploration and development 8,635 8,635
Interest and finance fees 9,139 9,139
Stock-based compensation 14,547 14,547
Interest income (1,183) (1,183)
Other (1,047) (1,047)
34,659 34,659
Loss before income taxes (34,680) (28,915)
Income and mining taxes (recoverable)
Current 23,133 23,133
Future (31,405) (31,405)
(8,272) (8,272)
Net loss $ (26,408) $ (20,643)
Capital expenditures $ 3,896 $ 160 $ 458 $ 4,514
Assets $ 654,074 $ 222,503 $ 59,167 $ 935,744
Liabilities $ 217,626 $ 81,768 $ 412,299 $ 711,693
Comparative information for December 31, 2005 is not provided as the Corporation had no operations in
2005, except for exploration costs related to the Davidson Project.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 26 -
19. Fair Value of Financial Instruments
The Corporation continually monitors its positions with, and the credit quality of, the financial institutions it
invests with. As of the balance sheet date, and periodically throughout the year, the Corporation has
maintained balances in various operating accounts in excess of federally insured limits.
The Corporation controls credit risk related to accounts receivable through credit approvals, credit limits, and
monitoring procedures. Concentration of credit risk with respect to accounts receivable are limited because
the Corporation’s customer base includes a large number of geographically diverse customers, thus spreading
the trade credit risk. Management considers the credit of each individual customer, including payment
history and other factors. At December 31, 2006 and 2005 management of the Corporation determined that
no allowance for doubtful accounts was necessary.
The Corporation does not acquire, hold or issue financial instruments for trading or speculative purposes.
Financial instruments are used to manage certain market risks resulting from fluctuations in foreign currency
exchange rates. On a limited basis the Corporation enters into forward contracts for the purchase of
Canadian dollars.
The carrying amounts of financial instruments including cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash,
receivables, accounts payable and variable rate debt approximate fair value as of December 31, 2006 and
2005. The fair value of investments is determined using quoted market prices for those securities.
20. Commitments and Contingencies
The Langeloth facility’s air emissions permit expired on December 31, 2006. The renewal application was
submitted in March 2006 and no new variances are expected to the permit. The Langeloth facility has a
water treatment plant to control heavy metals to comply with water discharge regulations. Renewal for this
permit was applied for in 1992 and is still pending. The facility is operating under the existing permit and
the regulators have been performing inspections and are aware of the permit issue.
The Corporation has entered into agreements to purchase molybdenum in 2007. The Corporation expects it
will purchase approximately 10.4 million pounds of molybdenum under these agreements.
As outlined in Note 4, the Corporation may be required to pay additional amounts to the vendors of TCMC
in 2008, 2009 and 2010. The total payment will not exceed $125,000.
In addition to the scheduled principal payments, under the circumstances described in Note 7, the
Corporation may be required to make additional principal payments to the holders of the first lien senior
secured loan each year if cash flows, as defined in the loan agreement, in the year exceed the ongoing capital
and operating requirements, as defined in the loan agreement, of the Corporation.
As described in Note 9 and further described in Note 15, the Corporation has committed to sell a certain
amount of production to Sojitz at a defined price that may be less than market.
As described in Note 15, the Corporation has entered into commitments to buy Canadian dollars at an
established exchange rate.
BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements
December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)
- 27 -
21. Subsequent event
On March 15, 2007, the second lien senior secured loan outstanding principal of $61,855 was prepaid in full.
The prepayment required the Corporation to pay a prepayment premium of $2,474. The prepayment penalty
will be recorded as an expense in 2007.

[RiscTec]

Also meine Kurz-Bewertung der Zahlen wäre die folgende:
(alles pro lbs Moly)

Erzielter Preis: $25.74
Produktionskosten: $6.28

Plan Produktion 2007: 21 mio lbs
Plan Produktion 2008: 27 mio lbs

bei einem KGV 10 wäre die Ziel Marktkapitalisierung

2007: (25.74-6.28)*21*10 = 4,086 bn $
2008: 5,254 bn $

abzüglich der Schulden von 340 mio $ + dem Cash von 135 mio $ =

2007: Wert 3,881 bn $
2008: Wert 5,049 bn $

Bei einer heutigen MarketCap von 613 Mio $ wären das ein Aktienkurs-Potential von heute für

2007: +533%
2008: +723%

wenn die Marktkonditionen gleich bleiben.

Wer jetzt noch verkauft ist selber schuld...

[extremrelaxer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.512.266 von RiscTec am 27.03.07 09:32:24

Mein persönliches Kursziel für Ende 2007 sind 16,28 USD bzw. 12,24 Euro

Im Gegensatz zu der vom Unternehmen veröffentlichten Prognose gehe ich von einer höheren Produktion aus! Q4 06 wurden Einnahmen von 150,8 Mio $ erzielt, bei einem zugrundegelegtem Verkaufspreis pro Pfund von 25,74 $ wurden somit 5,858 Mio Pfund verkauft. x4 Quartale der gleichen Art wären das schon 23,43 Mio Pfund (ohne einrechnung einer Produktionsausweitung und ohne Berücksichtigung, dass es sich bei Q4 um ein Winterquartal handelt).
Der Gewinn pro Pfund Moly darf allerdings nicht mit (Ausgaben - Produktionskosten) verwechselt werden, da neben der Produktion noch Kosten anderer Art anfallen, somit nehme ich als Grundlage mal willkürlich einen Gewinn pro Pfund Moly von 15 $. Langfristig interessiern mich desweiteren nicht die outstanding shares, sondern die fully dilluted shares, ich glaube es wurde mal eine Zahl von 130 Mio genannt.

Bei einer Minenaktie (begrenzte Lebenszeit) nehme ich mal sehr konservativ ein KGV von 5 als gerecht an (Jetzt gibt´s gleich Proteste gelle? )

Ich komme auf 23,43 Mio Pfund x 15 USD : 130 Mio diluted shares : 1.33 (USD/Euro) = 10,20 Euro bei einem KGV von 5 für 2007. Für 2008 unterstelle ich mal eine Produktionserhöhung von 20%, dann komme ich auf ein Kursziel von 12,24 Euro zum Ende des Jahres 2007 (eingepreistes KGV für 2008).


Natürlich dürfte es mit zunemedem Interesse bei Moly auch schöne Übertreibungen geben, so dass auch zugrundegelegte KGV´s von 10 oder 20 möglich wären, zudem besteht die Aussicht, dass durch Sprott und Co die Moly-Preise deutlich ansteigen und des weiteren glaube ich persönlich, dass in den Sommermonaten in Canada die Produktion wesentlich besser laufen dürfte, als Q4 2006. Somit sehe ich persönlich meine Rechnung als konservativ an, sie entbeert jedoch genauen Fakten, zuviel ist bei Blue Pearl reine Spekulation, allerdings werde ich persönlich unter 12,24 Euro kein einziges Stück meiner molligen Perlen aus der Hand geben!

Grüsse, ER

[RiscTec]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.514.095 von extremrelaxer am 27.03.07 10:55:03

interessante Rechnung - sehr konservativ meiner Meinung nach.

Ich denke ein höheres KGV als 5 in einem so heissen Markt wie Moly kann mann sich genehmigen. Sagen wir einmal KGV = 7. Dann wären es nach Deiner Rechnung immer noch 14,30 € Kursziel.

Selbst bei dieser sehr konservativen Rechnung käme man dann immer noch auf 100% Kurspotential bis Ende des Jahres. Und dies bei einem solch soliden Asset Wert.

Moly Preis Phantasie fehlt hier noch völlig !

[MMEHeld]

Eure Berechnungen sind wirklich sehr konservativ, aber wie heißt es so schön: Vorsicht ist die Mutter der Porzellankiste.

Ich versuche mal eine realistische Kurszielberechnung. Die 2008er Gewinne sollten nach meiner Auffassung schon bis zum Sommer eingepreist sein. Ausserdem unterstelle ich mal, dass der Molly-Preis auf dem aktuellen Niveau von 30$ verbleibt, was zu einem etwas höheren Gewinn als in Eurer Annahme führen dürfte.

Somit erwarte ich bei einem KGV von 7 bis zum Juli Kurse in einer Bandbreite von € 15-€ 20. Bis zum Jahresende dürfte der Molypreis realistischerweise auf etwa $ 40 ansteigen (aufgrund der Nachfrage durch den neu aufgelegten Molyfonds und die steigende Industrienachfrage von ca. 4% pro Jahr).

Als Weltmatktführer (der börsennotierten Moly-Unternehmen)ist ein KGV von 10 sicherlich angemessen. Somit sollten wir uns nach meiner Auffasung zu Sylvester über Kurse von € 30 freuen können

[extremrelaxer]

Egal, wie konservativ man rechnet, die Aktie ist klar unterbewertet und damit m.E. ein klarer Kauf! .
Was mich vorsichtig stimmt, ist die Tatsache, dass in dieser Aktie viel stupid money investiert ist. Man beachte nur den Kindergarten-Talk nebenan, da kennt man keinen Unterschied zwischen Erlösen und Gewinnen, rechnet mit KGV´s, als ob die Rohstoffe nachwachsen würden und schielt in englische Boards, um dort zu kopieren und ausgelacht zu werden. Mal im Ernst, ich glaube über die Hälfte der hier investierten weiß nicht annäherungsweise, welche Bewertungsmaßstäbe hier Sinn machen. Pushst Du die Aktie nicht "artgerecht", dann hast Du inzwischen hier bei w:o sogar mit Beleidigungen oder Drohungen zu rechnen. Falls es bei Blue mal ein wenig bergab gehen sollte, kann man mit Massakern rechnen, da ein Großteil des stupid Money in Panik verfallen wird!
In Deutschland wird die Aktie immernoch auf gestrigem Niveau gehandelt, scheint so, als wären wir zu blöde die Zahlen selbständig zu analysieren! Ich gehe von einem Plus im heutigen kanadischen Handel von 10-15% aus!

Gruß an alle, die bereit sind, sich selbst ein paar Gedanken über eine gerchte Bewertung zu machen,

ER

[beautifulmind]

Egal wie ab heute die weitere Kursentwicklung läuft-
seit gestern ist jetzt erst 'mal die Lawine der Analysten
und deren Hebelwirkung losgetreten....

[eyeworker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.515.366 von extremrelaxer am 27.03.07 11:54:56

Hey extremrelaxer,

ich gebe Dir vollkommen recht mit deiner Einschätzung der deutschen Aktionärs-Struktur (sie ist sicher `durchwuchert` von sehr vielen, die nur aus Gier auf diese Aktie aufgesprungen sind und sich über Fundamentals nicht informiert haben bzw. diese überhaupt nicht verstehen oder einschätzen können...)
Ich würde dem aber nicht so viel Gewicht zurechnen, da der Kurs in Can gespielt wird, was nicht heissen soll, dass dort nicht weniger Zocker am Werk sind!?
Klar ist aber in jedem Fall, dass BPM in den nächten Monaten seinen Weg in Richtung der fairen Bewertung gehen wird - ob konservativ oder optimistisch eingeschätzt, es wir ein sehr langer Weg

Gruss, eye

[Firsteven]

Mein Posting wurde vom MOD gelöscht, da bei "nicht selbst verfassten Artikeln eine Quellenangabe erforderlich ist".
Meine Angabe, dass es sich um ein SEDAR-File handelt, aus dem ich die Fakten entnommen habe, war anscheinend unzureichend. Dass der wesentliche Text hier im Thread inzwischen etwa 5 Mal gepostet wurde, reicht wohl auch nicht aus.

Ich stelle das Posting also, ergänzt um zusätzliche, ausführliche Quellenangaben noch einmal hier ein.

Das SEDAR-File kann nach kostenpflichtiger Anmeldung bei www.stockwatch.com dort angesehen werden unter "SEDAR Audited Annual Financial Statement" (26.3.2007) bzw. "SEDAR MD&A" (26.3.2007). Im Prinzip sollte der Zugriff auch über www.sedar.com möglich sein, ist aber im Index noch nicht ersichtlich. Die wesentlichen Punkte sind unter www.ccnmatthews.com am 26.3.2007 als News abzurufen.

Hier also das nochmals ergänzte Posting:

Der geprüfte Jahresbericht 2006 ist inzwischen bei SEDAR einzusehen.

Einige Punkte daraus möchte ich für Leser, die mit der englischen Sprache nicht so gut klarkommen, herausgreifen, übersetzen und teilweise kommentieren. Alle $-Angaben sind US-$ (soweit nicht anders bezeichnet)

---------------------------------------------------------
Bilanz
Unter dem Punkt Assets (Aktiva) sind 935,744 Mio US-$ verzeichnet. Dies entspricht 1082 Mio CAD
(Kommentar: BPM hat derzeit eine Marktkapitalisierung von 1302 Mio CAD. Da der Buchwert eines Unternehmens üblicherweise deutlich unter dem tatsächlichen Wert liegt, ist jede Aktie mehr Wert, als ihrem Preis entspricht)

Zum Jahreswechsel besitzt BPM 98,059 Mio US-$ Cash.
Das Warenlager hat einen Produktionswert (bzw. Einkaufswert) von 131,269 Mio US-$. (Kommentar: Die genaue Menge in Pfund ist nicht bekannt. Ich gehe von einem Verkaufswert von etwa 200 Mio US-$ aus (darin ist noch ein Teil des teuer bei der Übernahme erhaltenen Moly enthalten))

----------------------------------------------------------
Gewinn und Verlust
(diese Zahlen beziehen sich praktisch ausschliesslich auf den Zeitraum von der Übernahme Ende Oktober bis Jahresende)

Einnahmen
Erlöse aus Molybdänverkauf 147,676 Mio US-$
Tolling and calcining 3,167 Mio US-$ (das dürfte wohl die Fremdröstung sein)

Ausgaben (nur die wichtigsten Punkte)
Operating expenses 139,115 Mio US-$
(Kommentar: Ausgaben für die Produktion. In diesen Ausgaben sind auch 68,9 Mio US-$ enthalten, die anlässlich der Übernahme für etwa 70% des Warenbestandes (verkaufsfertiges Moly) im Lager als "fairer Wert" an den Alteigentümer bezahlt wurden. So wie ich das verstehe wurden pro Pfund Moly etwa 12,62 US-$ bezahlt (98,5 Mio $ : 7,8 Mio Pfund). Dies ist etwa doppelt so viel wie die reinen Produktionskosten und hat letztendlich zum Ausweis eines Verlustes für 2006 geführt (wobei ich davon ausgehe, dass nach dem FIFO-Prinzip erst der teuer eingekaufte Lagerbestand in 2006 verkauft wurde und dafür das billiger produzierte neue Moly eingelagert wurde).)
Exploration und (Minen)Entwicklung 8,635 Mio US-$ (dieser Wert bezieht sich auf das gesamte Jahr und betrifft wohl Davidson)
Stock-based compensation 14,547 Mio US-$ (die Optionen für 110 Mitarbeiter)
Damit ergibt sich (unter Einbeziehung der hier nicht erwähnten Zahlen) ein Jahresverlust von 20,643 Mio US-$.
(Kommentar: Dieser Verlust ist unter dem Gesichtspunkt zu sehen, dass der Lagerbestand von 7,8 Mio Pfund Moly zu ca. 12,62 US-$ übernommen wurde und so beträchtlich höhere Kosten verursacht hat, als eine eigene Produktion. Im Gegenzug kann dieses Moly nochmals teurer verkauft werden, und so den Produktionsrückgang 2007 ausgleichen)).

---------------------------------------------------------------

Ausblick

In den 67 Tagen nach der TC-Übernahme wurde aus dem Verkauf von Molybdän ein Umsatz von 150,8 Mio US-$ erzielt. Dies entspricht einem Umsatz pro Kalendertag von 2,25 Millionen. Dem stehen Produktionskosten von etwa 70 Mio US-Dollar gegenüber (siehe MD&A bei SEDAR (www.sedar.com)).
Nach einer überschlägigen Rechnung trifft dies genau die Aussage von Ian McDonald, dass Blue Pearl pro Kalender-Tag einen Gewinn von 1 Mio Dollar erzielt.(Quelle: Präsentation vom 21.11.2006 - Tondokument, abzuhören über www.bluepearl.ca)
Bei dem nunmehr auf etwa 30 $ pro Pfund gestiegenen Molypreis (Quelle: www.thefinancials.com) ergäbe sich sogar eine Steigerung auf 1,2 Mio Gewinn pro Tag.

Die Finanzkraft hat Blue Pearl ja schon durch die vorzeitige Tilgung des Zusatzkredites in Höhe von 62 Mio und die reguläre Tilgung über 19 Mio zum Quartalsende bewiesen (Quelle: News Release vom 12.3.2007 www.sedar.com). Bei weiterhin hohem Molypreis könnte BPM bereits Anfang 2008 schuldenfrei sein.

In den englischsprachigen Foren wird Blue Pearl derzeit überwiegend positiv diskutiert. Einigen Usern scheint nun sehr bewusst zu werden, dass ein Kurs von 20 CAD immer noch eine Unterbewertung wäre. Wenn auch die um 16:00 Uhr MEZ angesetzte Telefonkonferenz (Quelle: News von BPM von heute Nacht (,www.ccnmatthews.com)) noch gut ausfällt, dann könnte heute ein schöner grüner Tag anstehen.

chartex

[Firsteven]

Dieser Beitrag wird hohe Wellen schlagen! Siehe Mails von allesaufblau u.a.wg. Sojitz; James Finch hat die Zahlen gleich zum Anlass genommen um mal einen fetten Bericht zu schreiben!!!



http://www.stockinterview.com/News/03272007/Blue-Pearl-Molyb…


March 27, 2007
By James Finch


coming soon! Print Version
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King of the Primary Molybdenum World
Wonders about Supply Problems

Lack of Forward Sales Could Hinder Future Molybdenum Producers


Blue Pearl executive chairman Ian McDonald sees ‘tremendous’ barriers to entry for new primary molybdenum producers.

Copyright© 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Unauthorized duplication of all or any part of this article is not permitted without written permission from the editor of StockInterview.com.

(Editor’s Note: This is the first in series of corporate updates of primary molybdenum producers and near-term producers. These articles will help with our research efforts in compiling our forthcoming publication about investing in primary molybdenum companies.)

There is a polite arrogance to the new king of primary molybdenum producers that comes with being the big kid on the block. That’s how executive chairman referred to Blue Pearl Mining during our hour-long telephone interview discussing his company’s developments, the future of the molybdenum market and new companies hoping to imitate his success.


Blue Pearl has strong molybdenum assets and promising prospects.

Ian McDonald may very well be entitled to his opinions. After all, Blue Pearl could produce the same number of molybdenum poundage in 2007 as Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) would produce of uranium. And unencumbered by those pesky legacy contracts or remediation efforts at Cigar Lake. Blue Pearl is now the largest publicly traded primary molybdenum producer. The company plans to mine about one-fifth of the world’s primary moly in 2007, about five percent of the world’s total mined molybdenum. His company will also roast about 12 percent of the world’s molybdenum. Not bad for a company which was a penny stock some seven months ago.

Blue Pearl has become the darling of Bay Street since the company announced its audacious US$575 million acquisition of privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company. Having closed the transaction in late October, Blue Pearl now owns two operating molybdenum mines and concentrators and a metallurgical (roaster) facility in Pennsylvania. In mid June, the company’s shares traded for less than C$1.80; yesterday the stock closed at C$12.06. Since late August, shares in Blue Pearl have climbed relentlessly, with only brief pauses of consolidation.

We were fortunate to have included Blue Pearl in our seminal molybdenum article about the metal’s relationship with the energy bull market, this past July, at a time when few had heard of the company.

On Monday, the company announced encouraging cash flow from the recently acquired Thompson Creek operations. In the 67 days following this acquisition, Blue Pearl generated revenues of $150.8 million, about $2.25 million per day. Annualized, this could reach more than $800 million in 2007 if the price molybdenum remains firm and production continues according to plan.

Production costs for output from the company’s Thompson Creek and Endako molybdenum mines averaged $6.28/pound. The company sold this production at an average price of $25.74/pound. By 2008, the company hopes to mine 27 million pounds from these mines. The firm moly price helped Blue Pearl discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility of $64.3 million in mid March. According to Monday’s news release, the company cash balance stands at approximately $135 million.

The company expects its bank debt to fall to $320 million after paying its first quarterly installment in 2007 of $18.75 million. Blue Pearl incurred $401.9 million in long-term debt as part of its acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals. At its current production pace, the quarterly bank payments amount to a little more than one week’s production.



What’s on Ian McDonald’s Mind?


Blue Pearl's high-grade Davidson deposit is near present mining facilities in Endako.

Historically, according to Western Troy’s Rex Loesby, annual molybdenum demand has grown about four percent since the 1950s. This fits well with McDonald’s forecast of 700 million pounds by 2020. “That’s what will need to be the supply,” he told us. And where will this come from? “That, of course, is the big question,” McDonald said. “There’s a dearth of new projects in the pipeline.” And he reminded us that China has started to consume more of their own molybdenum production.

As with uranium and other metals, China is a wild card for molybdenum supply. In any moly discussion, China remains a primary concern for miners. “China was producing, 13 to 14 years ago, about 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million into a 230-million pound market,” McDonald pointed out. “Last year, in a 400-million pound market, China produced about 80 million pounds, net exporting about 30 million, so they are keeping more. The story is they use more of their own.” He is quick to point out that global moly demand was up six percent in 2006, but China’s demand increased some 20 percent.

“I’m not going to sugar coat it,” McDonald points out. “If they wanted to make it look bad, they would. If they start dumping on the market, everybody’s trashed.” But he doesn’t believe this is a likely scenario. There are only 39 big mines in the world, producing molybdenum, he told us. “But in China, there are over 500 small mom-and-pop operations. China is desirous of having some world-class companies, and they’ve shut down some of the smaller operations because they don’t use their power efficiently. If you have a big mining company, they are going to have a long-term view and maximize the country’s resources.”

From where supply comes from is second to the increasing demand McDonald sees ahead. “There are a growing number of applications for molybdenum.” He pointed out that cars consume molybdenum. “There’s about 0.9 pound or so in about a dozen different places in the automobile, and with 55 million cars in the world, that’s about 50 million pounds.” This is probably the third largest application of moly.

“High-end molybdenum stainless steel applications consume the biggest amount,” McDonald said. “Any steel that’s used in the ocean or near the ocean has got molybdenum in it.” He pointed out that Blue Pearl leaves about 10 percent of the company’s molybdenum production in the sulphide form for the high-end lubrication market – the oil companies. “Most of it is made into tech oxide, MO3, and about 25 percent would be ferromolybdenum,” he said. “We just sold some (ferromoly) in Europe for $34/pound.”

His company was chosen to help produce advice on the newly launched Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund. We asked about his involvement. “We get a small fee for storing molybdenum if they choose to buy,” he told us. It would be stored at Blue Pearl’s metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania. “We would also sell them some,” he added. His company would not be counseling the fund in which companies to take investment stakes. “It would pose a conflict of interest and we would have to recuse ourselves,” he said.




Sees New Supply on the Horizon Lacking

Open pit molybdenum mining in Idaho. Mining at Blue Pearl's Thompson Creek operations cost $5.83/pound to produce. Molybdenum mined there was sold for more than $25/pound

“There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market,” McDonald observed. “Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.” He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.” He explained his own personal experience, “When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior.”

One place where he sees imminent molybdenum supply is from Blue Pearl’s Davidson deposit, not far from the company’s Endako mine and milling facility. “We will have the feasibility out in the second quarter – I say second quarter, but I hope it’s very soon,” McDonald told us. “It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world.” He said his company was lucky to have gotten it three years ago. “It had been ready for production and there was a lot of development done on it.” So, the company decided to move to the final feasibility study instead of bothering with a scoping study or pre-feasibility. He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.

What about mine development? “There’s already 2.5 kilometers of underground workings there and terrific ground conditions,” he said. “We opened that up a couple of years ago, after no one had been underground in 25 years. All of the scaling for the entire 2.5 kilometers fit in a five-gallon paint bucket.” McDonald told us Blue Pearl plans to just mine the deposit and little else, “We will not even crush it, just a rock breaker, and just haul it right down to Endako.”

But Blue Pearl may take in a partner on Davidson – the Japanese trading company, Sojitz. “They own 25 percent of Endako, and they want to buy 25 percent of Davidson,” McDonald said. “It would make sense, if they own the same percentage of both. There wouldn’t be any recovery issues, or combining of ore and al that. We would have the same labor force.” He did caution the deal was not done yet. “We’ll look to possibly do a transaction with them.”

Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a ‘super pit.’ The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. “I feel pretty good about that, it’s pretty realistic,” he told us. “We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors.”




Trucks hauling molybdenum ore to and from the open pit mine in Idaho.

We discussed his vision of expanding the mill to 50,000 tons per day. “It’s probably 32,000 tons per day now,” he pointed out. The first step involves redoing the reserves and resource calculations at Thompson Creek and Endako using a $10/pound moly price. The previous pricing was “way too conservative,” according to McDonald. We suspect the higher resource figure would open the door to raising the likely $250 million to upgrade the facility to the higher tonnage operation. And his mind is already moving in that direction.

“Let’s say we had a study done within the next year,” he explained. “It would take to 2008 or 2009 to build it. Unfortunately, because the mine has been operating for forty-two years, we would have to move the existing mill.” The mill would have to be moved because there is ore beneath the present mill site. “It won’t happen overnight,” he warned.

And what about those other junior molybdenum companies? “We aren’t going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits,” he responded. “Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we’d rather buy something that’s either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production.”

What are his plans as 2007 rolls on? “We qualify for the New York Stock Exchange,” McDonald confided. “We’ve talked to them. I think we will get the ball rolling this spring, and we could look for an early fall consummation. We are going to come to the U.S., we qualify and they seem pretty keen on having us.”

Just to make sure we got his story right, McDonald added, “We’re not going to sit on our laurels. We have a lot of growth ahead of us, bringing on Davidson, expanding the reserves of both mines and doing a scoping study for expanding Endako. Our main job is to get the debt paid down and increase the reserves. That’s quite a bit. It’s all within our backyard and with our own expertise. Anything we do outside of that – we will do other things, I think, but they are things that are going to be for sure.”

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Ab 31 Min.


Monday, March 26, 2007 7:00 PM ET

Market Call Tonight
North American and global large caps
Gavin Graham, chief investment officer, Guardian Group of Funds

[Firsteven]

von Stockhouse:



Blue Pearl Mining Chairman Sees ‘Dearth’ of New Molybdenum Mining Projects

NewswireToday - /newswire/ - Sarasota, FL, United States, 03/27/2007 - Blue Pearl executive chairman Ian McDonald discusses molybdenum supply problems in keeping up with global demand and his company’s role in keeping up with this demand.



In a response to questioning about where new molybdenum supply would come to meet strong demand for the metal, Blue Pearl Mining executive chairman Ian McDonald told StockInterview.com during a tape-recorded telephone interview, “That, of course, is the big question. There’s a dearth of new projects in the pipeline.” In 2006, global moly demand jumped by 50 percent above its historical four-percent growth average, while China’s demand shot up by 20 percent.

McDonald cautiously ruled out Chinese molybdenum production, saying, “China is desirous of having some world-class companies, and they’ve shut down some of the smaller operations because they don’t use their power efficiently.” Still, China is on the back of his mind as found with many in the primary molybdenum mining business.

He also ruled out most of the moly juniors in North America as competition for his company, telling StockInterview, “There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market. Financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.” While McDonald believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.”

McDonald also told StockInterview his company plans to begin trading in the United States this year , saying, “We qualify for the New York Stock Exchange. We’ve talked to them. I think we will get the ball rolling this spring , and we could look for an early fall consummation. We are going to come to the U.S., we qualify and they seem pretty keen on having us.” He also told StockInterview that his company was not going to rest on its laurels.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl chairman foresees molybdenum supply challenges
Source: SeekingAlpha



See also
Molybdenum Board


Molybdenum Catalog
James Finch submits: There is a polite arrogance to the new king of primary molybdenum producers that comes with being the big kid on the block. That's how the executive chairman referred to Blue Pearl Mining during our hour-long telephone interview discussing his company's developments, the future of the molybdenum market and new companies hoping to imitate his success.

Ian McDonald may very well be entitled to his opinions. After all, Blue Pearl could produce the same number of molybdenum poundage in 2007 as Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) would produce of uranium. (And unencumbered by those pesky legacy contracts or remediation efforts at Cigar Lake.) Blue Pearl is now the largest publicly traded primary molybdenum producer. The company plans to mine about one-fifth of the world' primary moly in 2007, about five percent of the world's total mined molybdenum. His company will also roast about 12 percent of the world's molybdenum. Not bad for a company which was a penny stock some seven months ago.

Blue Pearl has become the darling of Bay Street since the company announced its audacious US$575 million acquisition of privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company. Having closed the transaction in late October, Blue Pearl now owns two operating molybdenum mines and concentrators and a metallurgical (roaster) facility in Pennsylvania. In mid June, the company's shares traded for less than C$1.80; yesterday the stock closed at C$12.06. Since late August, shares in Blue Pearl have climbed relentlessly, with only brief pauses of consolidation.

We were fortunate to have included Blue Pearl in our seminal molybdenum article about the metal's relationship with the energy bull market, this past July, at a time when few had heard of the company.

On Monday, the company announced encouraging cash flow from the recently acquired Thompson Creek operations. In the 67 days following this acquisition, Blue Pearl generated revenues of $150.8 million, about $2.25 million per day. Annualized, this could reach more than $800 million in 2007 if the price molybdenum remains firm and production continues according to plan.

Production costs for output from the company's Thompson Creek and Endako molybdenum mines averaged $6.28/pound. The company sold this production at an average price of $25.74/pound. By 2008, the company hopes to mine 27 million pounds from these mines. The firm moly price helped Blue Pearl discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility of $64.3 million in mid March. According to Monday's news release, the company cash balance stands at approximately $135 million.

The company expects its bank debt to fall to $320 million after paying its first quarterly installment in 2007 of $18.75 million. Blue Pearl incurred $401.9 million in long-term debt as part of its acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals. At its current production pace, the quarterly bank payments amount to a little more than one week's production.

What's on Ian McDonald's Mind?
Historically, according to Western Troy's Rex Loesby, annual molybdenum demand has grown about four percent since the 1950s. This fits well with McDonald's forecast of 700 million pounds by 2020. "That's what will need to be the supply," he told us.

And where will this come from? "That, of course, is the big question," McDonald said. "There's a dearth of new projects in the pipeline." And he reminded us that China has started to consume more of their own molybdenum production.

As with uranium and other metals, China is a wild card for molybdenum supply. In any moly discussion, China remains a primary concern for miners. "China was producing, 13 to 14 years ago, about 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million into a 230-million pound market," McDonald pointed out. "Last year, in a 400-million pound market, China produced about 80 million pounds, net exporting about 30 million, so they are keeping more. The story is they use more of their own."

He is quick to point out that global moly demand was up six percent in 2006, but China's demand increased some 20 percent.

"I'm not going to sugar coat it," McDonald points out. "If they wanted to make it look bad, they would. If they start dumping on the market, everybody's trashed." But he doesn't believe this is a likely scenario. There are only 39 big mines in the world, producing molybdenum, he told us. "But in China, there are over 500 small mom-and-pop operations. China is desirous of having some world-class companies, and they've shut down some of the smaller operations because they don't use their power efficiently. If you have a big mining company, they are going to have a long-term view and maximize the country's resources."

From where supply comes from is second to the increasing demand McDonald sees ahead. "There are a growing number of applications for molybdenum." He pointed out that cars consume molybdenum. "There's about 0.9 pound or so in about a dozen different places in the automobile, and with 55 million cars in the world, that's about 50 million pounds." This is probably the third largest application of moly.

"High-end molybdenum stainless steel applications consume the biggest amount," McDonald said. "Any steel that's used in the ocean or near the ocean has got molybdenum in it."

He pointed out that Blue Pearl leaves about 10 percent of the company's molybdenum production in the sulphide form for the high-end lubrication market – the oil companies.

"Most of it is made into tech oxide, MO3, and about 25 percent would be ferromolybdenum," he said. "We just sold some (ferromoly) in Europe for $34/pound."

His company was chosen to help produce advice on the newly launched Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund. We asked about his involvement. "We get a small fee for storing molybdenum if they choose to buy," he told us. It would be stored at Blue Pearl's metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania. "We would also sell them some," he added. His company would not be counseling the fund in which companies to take investment stakes. "It would pose a conflict of interest and we would have to recuse ourselves," he said.

Sees New Supply on the Horizon Lacking
"There's a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market," McDonald observed. "Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging."

He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, "I think that once one does, it doesn't mean they are all going to." He explained his own personal experience: "When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior."

One place where he sees imminent molybdenum supply is from Blue Pearl's Davidson deposit, not far from the company's Endako mine and milling facility.

"We will have the feasibility out in the second quarter – I say second quarter, but I hope it's very soon," McDonald told us. "It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world."

He said his company was lucky to have gotten it three years ago. "It had been ready for production and there was a lot of development done on it." So, the company decided to move to the final feasibility study instead of bothering with a scoping study or pre-feasibility. He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.

What about mine development? "There's already 2.5 kilometers of underground workings there and terrific ground conditions," he said. "We opened that up a couple of years ago, after no one had been underground in 25 years. All of the scaling for the entire 2.5 kilometers fit in a five-gallon paint bucket." McDonald told us Blue Pearl plans to just mine the deposit and little else, "We will not even crush it, just a rock breaker, and just haul it right down to Endako."

But Blue Pearl may take in a partner on Davidson – the Japanese trading company, Sojitz. "They own 25 percent of Endako, and they want to buy 25 percent of Davidson," McDonald said. "It would make sense, if they own the same percentage of both. There wouldn't be any recovery issues, or combining of ore and al that. We would have the same labor force." He did caution the deal was not done yet. "We'll look to possibly do a transaction with them."

Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a 'super pit.' The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. "I feel pretty good about that, it's pretty realistic," he told us. "We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors."

We discussed his vision of expanding the mill to 50,000 tons per day. "It's probably 32,000 tons per day now," he pointed out. The first step involves redoing the reserves and resource calculations at Thompson Creek and Endako using a $10/pound moly price. The previous pricing was "way too conservative," according to McDonald. We suspect the higher resource figure would open the door to raising the likely $250 million to upgrade the facility to the higher tonnage operation. And his mind is already moving in that direction.

"Let's say we had a study done within the next year," he explained. "It would take to 2008 or 2009 to build it. Unfortunately, because the mine has been operating for forty-two years, we would have to move the existing mill." The mill would have to be moved because there is ore beneath the present mill site. "It won't happen overnight," he warned.

And what about those other junior molybdenum companies?

"We aren't going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits," he responded. "Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we'd rather buy something that's either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production."

What are his plans as 2007 rolls on?

"We qualify for the New York Stock Exchange," McDonald confided. "We've talked to them. I think we will get the ball rolling this spring, and we could look for an early fall consummation. We are going to come to the U.S., we qualify and they seem pretty keen on having us."

Just to make sure we got his story right, McDonald added:

We're not going to sit on our laurels. We have a lot of growth ahead of us, bringing on Davidson, expanding the reserves of both mines and doing a scoping study for expanding Endako. Our main job is to get the debt paid down and increase the reserves. That's quite a bit. It's all within our backyard and with our own expertise. Anything we do outside of that – we will do other things, I think, but they are things that are going to be for sure.

Disclosure: Author has no position in the above-mentioned securities

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes:

Moly Market Shows Strength:

The moly market continued to show strength even though

the level of business was not particularly high in the US or

Europe. A major US mill is believed to have purchased two

trucks of oxide for April delivery, one in the low $28s per lb

and the other closer to $28.50. Some producers and several

traders were unable to quote on the business. Traders said

that they had offered at $29 and above. At the same time,

there is some profit taking transpiring. Sales of oxide at $28

in Europe and at slightly below $28 in the US were reported

early in the week. At the end of the week, traders said they

could buy oxide in Europe at $28.50, and they reported sales

of briquettes at close to $29.

European prices for oxide and FeMo continue to command

a premium over prices in the US. AEuropean mill is believed

to have purchased briquettes for April at slightly below $28.90

at the start of the week. FeMo prices in Europe were hovering

at about $78 per kg for April/May. AUS mill was in the market

for a truckload of FeMo. FeMo in the US is even tighter

than oxide, especially as a lot of traders have diverted FeMo

to Europe. Producers reportedly are quoting $30 per lb for

small quantities of spot FeMo, but buyers are staying out of

the market.

Market sentiment is definitely bullish. Traders point out that

oxide prices have managed to firm during a relatively slow

buying period. European suppliers believe that more mills will

be entering the market in the next two weeks, putting more

upward pressure on FeMo prices.

There are no bargains out of China, traders said. JDC is

continuing to offer oxide at $30 per lb. Everyone continues

to wait for the government to announce export quota

amounts. This may take longer than expected, given that the

government just last week sent out a notice to local commerce

authorities detailing requirements for obtaining export

licenses and instructing the commerce entities to submit a

list of eligible exporters by Mar. 16.

Qualified moly producing exporters should have more

than 3,000 mt of annual combined production and 300 mt of

annual combined exports for ferromoly and moly oxide in

the past three years. Moly content for moly oxide should be

above 51% and for ferromoly should be higher than 55%.

For moly metal and powders, the minimum annual production

and exports will be 300 mt and 20 mt. Trading exporters

are required to have more than 600 mt of combined exports

of ferromoly and moly oxide, and are required to have at

least 30-million yuan of registered capital. For moly metal

and powders the annual minimum exports are 200 mt.

The new regulations are likely to lead to reduced moly

exports. For many traders, the registered capital requirement

presents a problem. The government originally planned to

set up a 100-million-yuan minimum registered capital

requirement but lowered the number to 30-million yuan after

meeting strong resistance. Unqualified traders may have to

export through large producers or they may find ways to

increase their registered capital, sources said.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Chairman Foresees Molybdenum Supply Challenges
Posted on Mar 27th, 2007 with stocks: BLEFF.PK

James Finch submits: There is a polite arrogance to the new king of primary molybdenum producers that comes with being the big kid on the block. That’s how the executive chairman referred to Blue Pearl Mining (BLEFF.PK) during our hour-long telephone interview discussing his company’s developments, the future of the molybdenum market and new companies hoping to imitate his success.

Ian McDonald may very well be entitled to his opinions. After all, Blue Pearl could produce the same number of molybdenum poundage in 2007 as Cameco (CCJ) would produce of uranium. (And unencumbered by those pesky legacy contracts or remediation efforts at Cigar Lake.) Blue Pearl is now the largest publicly traded primary molybdenum producer. The company plans to mine about one-fifth of the world’ primary moly in 2007, about five percent of the world’s total mined molybdenum. His company will also roast about 12 percent of the world’s molybdenum. Not bad for a company which was a penny stock some seven months ago.

Blue Pearl has become the darling of Bay Street since the company announced its audacious US$575 million acquisition of privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company. Having closed the transaction in late October, Blue Pearl now owns two operating molybdenum mines and concentrators and a metallurgical (roaster) facility in Pennsylvania. In mid June, the company’s shares traded for less than C$1.80; yesterday the stock closed at C$12.06. Since late August, shares in Blue Pearl have climbed relentlessly, with only brief pauses of consolidation.

We were fortunate to have included Blue Pearl in our seminal molybdenum article about the metal’s relationship with the energy bull market, this past July, at a time when few had heard of the company.

On Monday, the company announced encouraging cash flow from the recently acquired Thompson Creek operations. In the 67 days following this acquisition, Blue Pearl generated revenues of $150.8 million, about $2.25 million per day. Annualized, this could reach more than $800 million in 2007 if the price molybdenum remains firm and production continues according to plan.

Production costs for output from the company’s Thompson Creek and Endako molybdenum mines averaged $6.28/pound. The company sold this production at an average price of $25.74/pound. By 2008, the company hopes to mine 27 million pounds from these mines. The firm moly price helped Blue Pearl discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility of $64.3 million in mid March. According to Monday’s news release, the company cash balance stands at approximately $135 million.

The company expects its bank debt to fall to $320 million after paying its first quarterly installment in 2007 of $18.75 million. Blue Pearl incurred $401.9 million in long-term debt as part of its acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals. At its current production pace, the quarterly bank payments amount to a little more than one week’s production.


What’s on Ian McDonald’s Mind?

Historically, according to Western Troy’s Rex Loesby, annual molybdenum demand has grown about four percent since the 1950s. This fits well with McDonald’s forecast of 700 million pounds by 2020. “That’s what will need to be the supply,” he told us.

And where will this come from? “That, of course, is the big question,” McDonald said. “There’s a dearth of new projects in the pipeline.” And he reminded us that China has started to consume more of their own molybdenum production.

As with uranium and other metals, China is a wild card for molybdenum supply. In any moly discussion, China remains a primary concern for miners. “China was producing, 13 to 14 years ago, about 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million into a 230-million pound market,” McDonald pointed out. "Last year, in a 400-million pound market, China produced about 80 million pounds, net exporting about 30 million, so they are keeping more. The story is they use more of their own."

He is quick to point out that global moly demand was up six percent in 2006, but China’s demand increased some 20 percent.

“I’m not going to sugar coat it,” McDonald points out. “If they wanted to make it look bad, they would. If they start dumping on the market, everybody’s trashed.” But he doesn’t believe this is a likely scenario. There are only 39 big mines in the world, producing molybdenum, he told us. “But in China, there are over 500 small mom-and-pop operations. China is desirous of having some world-class companies, and they’ve shut down some of the smaller operations because they don’t use their power efficiently. If you have a big mining company, they are going to have a long-term view and maximize the country’s resources.”

From where supply comes from is second to the increasing demand McDonald sees ahead. “There are a growing number of applications for molybdenum.” He pointed out that cars consume molybdenum. “There’s about 0.9 pound or so in about a dozen different places in the automobile, and with 55 million cars in the world, that’s about 50 million pounds.” This is probably the third largest application of moly.

“High-end molybdenum stainless steel applications consume the biggest amount,” McDonald said. “Any steel that’s used in the ocean or near the ocean has got molybdenum in it.”

He pointed out that Blue Pearl leaves about 10 percent of the company’s molybdenum production in the sulphide form for the high-end lubrication market – the oil companies.

“Most of it is made into tech oxide, MO3, and about 25 percent would be ferromolybdenum,” he said. “We just sold some (ferromoly) in Europe for $34/pound.”

His company was chosen to help produce advice on the newly launched Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund. We asked about his involvement. “We get a small fee for storing molybdenum if they choose to buy,” he told us. It would be stored at Blue Pearl’s metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania. “We would also sell them some,” he added. His company would not be counseling the fund in which companies to take investment stakes. “It would pose a conflict of interest and we would have to recuse ourselves,” he said.

Sees New Supply on the Horizon Lacking

“There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market,” McDonald observed. “Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.”

He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.” He explained his own personal experience: "When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior."

One place where he sees imminent molybdenum supply is from Blue Pearl’s Davidson deposit, not far from the company’s Endako mine and milling facility.

“We will have the feasibility out in the second quarter – I say second quarter, but I hope it’s very soon,” McDonald told us. “It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world.”

He said his company was lucky to have gotten it three years ago. “It had been ready for production and there was a lot of development done on it.” So, the company decided to move to the final feasibility study instead of bothering with a scoping study or pre-feasibility. He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.

What about mine development? “There’s already 2.5 kilometers of underground workings there and terrific ground conditions,” he said. “We opened that up a couple of years ago, after no one had been underground in 25 years. All of the scaling for the entire 2.5 kilometers fit in a five-gallon paint bucket.” McDonald told us Blue Pearl plans to just mine the deposit and little else, “We will not even crush it, just a rock breaker, and just haul it right down to Endako.”

But Blue Pearl may take in a partner on Davidson – the Japanese trading company, Sojitz. “They own 25 percent of Endako, and they want to buy 25 percent of Davidson,” McDonald said. "It would make sense, if they own the same percentage of both. There wouldn’t be any recovery issues, or combining of ore and al that. We would have the same labor force.” He did caution the deal was not done yet. “We’ll look to possibly do a transaction with them."

Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a ‘super pit.’ The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. "I feel pretty good about that, it’s pretty realistic,” he told us. “We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors."

We discussed his vision of expanding the mill to 50,000 tons per day. “It’s probably 32,000 tons per day now,” he pointed out. The first step involves redoing the reserves and resource calculations at Thompson Creek and Endako using a $10/pound moly price. The previous pricing was “way too conservative,” according to McDonald. We suspect the higher resource figure would open the door to raising the likely $250 million to upgrade the facility to the higher tonnage operation. And his mind is already moving in that direction.

“Let’s say we had a study done within the next year,” he explained. “It would take to 2008 or 2009 to build it. Unfortunately, because the mine has been operating for forty-two years, we would have to move the existing mill.” The mill would have to be moved because there is ore beneath the present mill site. “It won’t happen overnight,” he warned.

And what about those other junior molybdenum companies?

"We aren’t going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits,” he responded. “Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we’d rather buy something that’s either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production."

What are his plans as 2007 rolls on?

“We qualify for the New York Stock Exchange,” McDonald confided. “We’ve talked to them. I think we will get the ball rolling this spring, and we could look for an early fall consummation. We are going to come to the U.S., we qualify and they seem pretty keen on having us.”

Just to make sure we got his story right, McDonald added:

We’re not going to sit on our laurels. We have a lot of growth ahead of us, bringing on Davidson, expanding the reserves of both mines and doing a scoping study for expanding Endako. Our main job is to get the debt paid down and increase the reserves. That’s quite a bit. It’s all within our backyard and with our own expertise. Anything we do outside of that – we will do other things, I think, but they are things that are going to be for sure.

Disclosure: Author has no position in the above-mentioned securities

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl to adopt name of U.S. unit, list on NYSE
Canadian Press

TORONTO — The world\'s biggest publicly traded molybdenum producer, Toronto-based Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., is seeking to raise its corporate profile in the land of stars and stripes.

Blue Pearl executives told analysts in a conference call Tuesday the company expects to adopt the name of the major U.S. company it bought last fall, Thompson Creek Metals Co., and will apply for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange later this year.

“That requires additional preparatory work on our part, so it\'s not going to happen immediately, but we see that happening at some point in 2007,” CEO Kevin Loughrey said.

Blue Pearl acquired the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho last October. The mine is expected to have a life of 10 more years.

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The name change is subject to shareholder approval at the company\'s annual meeting May 10.

“Blue Pearl has been a very successful name for this company obviously and it has prospered under that name,” Mr. Loughrey said.

“However, in terms of all of our customers and most of our employees, the communities in which we operate and the molybdenum industry generally — and the customers who buy from our customers — the name Thompson Creek is the name that\'s associated with our products, and we believe it\'s going to be in the best interest of the company and the shareholders, going forward.”

Wayne Cheveldayoff, Blue Pearl\'s director of investor relations, said the U.S. stock exchange listing application and the name change aren\'t closely linked. The U.S. stock listing, he said, is to “appeal to a broader range of investors in the U.S.”

Mr. Loughrey said the company expects global demand for the base metal, which is used to harden steel, to remain strong as demand continues to grow at a rate of four per cent per year. The company is competing for market share with China, which is also a significant molybdenum producer.

“We think the outlook for the molybdenum business generally, and for Blue Pearl specifically, looks good into the future,” Mr. Loughrey said, noting prices have improved in the last few weeks.

Despite the positive forecasts, the company is facing a challenge in the development of its Davidson project, near the northern Interior town of Smithers, B.C.

A feasibility study is expected to be completed in the second quarter, and while Mr. Loughrey expressed optimism that the mine will receive environmental approval, a local investor said the “left-wing council” in the area opposes the project.

“I\'m not sure I hold your optimism for how easy your permitting process is going to be,” the investor told Mr. Loughrey. “Some of us who do hold stock up here, who aren\'t anti-mining, that\'s the feeling we\'re getting about this project, that it\'s not going to be as smooth as you seem to say.”

Mr. Loughrey said the company is confident it can work out the issues being raised by the community.

“We\'ll listen to the community and, obviously, do what we can to allay any concerns they have,” Mr. Loughrey said.

The company is planning to construct a new bypass road in response to some resident who opposed the location of the road that had been planned initially, Mr. Loughrey said.

Meanwhile, Mr. Loughrey said a major re-evaluation of the company\'s resources and reserves is underway, using higher molybdenum prices in calculations, to reflect the current market.

Blue Pearl reported Monday $150.8-million (U.S.) in revenue during the last 67 days of 2006, compared with zero in 2005.

The net loss for the year was $20.6-million or 36 cents per diluted share, including a loss of $12.4-million or 14 cents per share in the fourth quarter, when all the revenues were generated.

A year earlier, when Blue Pearl was still in development and prior to the Thompson Creek Metals acquisition, the 2005 loss was $4.1-million or 13 cents per share, including $2.5-million or 6 cents per share in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Production costs from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $6.28 a pound, while selling prices averaged $25.74 per pound.

Blue Pearl expects to produce 21 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 and 27 million pounds the year after from its existing Thompson Creek and Endako mines.

Blue Pearl shares were down 48 cents (Canadian), or 4 per cent, to $11.58 in trading Tuesday on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

[Firsteven]

Zwei Machbarkeitsstudien in 2007: Blue Pearl Mining goes Wall Street

Neuer Name trotz Erfolgsstory: Blue Pearl Mining wird Thompson Creek MetalsNeuer Name trotz Erfolgsstory: Blue Pearl Mining wird Thompson Creek Metals

Gestern hat Blue Pearl Mining den Finanzbericht des vergangenen Jahres veröffentlicht und einen Cash-Flow von rund 75 Millionen US-Dollar vermeldet, der innerhalb von wenigen Wochen erwirtschaftet wurde. Ein Beweis dafür, dass das Unternehmen produziert und bereits Geld verdient. Die heutige Analystenkonferenz brachte weitere Neuigkeiten zu Tage. Die Veröffentlichung der Machbarkeitsstudie für das Davidson-Projekt wurde auf das zweite Quartal dieses Jahres terminiert und es wurde angekündigt, dass man auch für die Endaco-Liegenschaft eine Machbarkeitsstudie in Planung hat. Diese soll noch in diesem Jahr begonnen werden. Neben Updates zu den Liegenschaften gab Blue Pearl Mining bekannt, dass man den Namen des Unternehmens in Thompson Creek Metals ändern wird. Das Management ließ verlauten, dass dieser Name bei Kunden geläufiger sei und insbesondere in den USA besser aufgenommen werden würde. Während der Hauptversammlung sind die Aktionäre gefragt, dem Antrag zur Namensänderung zuzustimmen.

Die Vereinigten Staaten sind auch in anderer Hinsicht das erklärte Ziel von Blue Pearl Mining: Noch im Jahr 2007 möchte man auch an der New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) gelistet sein. Blue Pearl hat seine Aktionäre hinreichend informiert. Vor allem die geplanten Machbarkeitsstudien und das Listing an der NYSE können positiv gewertet werden. Wenn der Kurs seit der gestrigen Meldung auch ein wenig stagniert, so sollten Aktionäre doch zuversichtlich sein. Als einziger börsennotierter Molydän-Produzent kann Blue Pearl schon heute von den hohen Preisen für Molybdän profitieren. Die Ankündigung, auch weiterhin regelmäßig Kredite tilgen zu können, bestätigt dies zusätzlich.


Quelle: aktienblog

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Notes:

Moly Market Shows Strength:

The moly market continued to show strength even though

the level of business was not particularly high in the US or

Europe. A major US mill is believed to have purchased two

trucks of oxide for April delivery, one in the low $28s per lb

and the other closer to $28.50. Some producers and several

traders were unable to quote on the business. Traders said

that they had offered at $29 and above. At the same time,

there is some profit taking transpiring. Sales of oxide at $28

in Europe and at slightly below $28 in the US were reported

early in the week. At the end of the week, traders said they

could buy oxide in Europe at $28.50, and they reported sales

of briquettes at close to $29.

European prices for oxide and FeMo continue to command

a premium over prices in the US. AEuropean mill is believed

to have purchased briquettes for April at slightly below $28.90

at the start of the week. FeMo prices in Europe were hovering

at about $78 per kg for April/May. AUS mill was in the market

for a truckload of FeMo. FeMo in the US is even tighter

than oxide, especially as a lot of traders have diverted FeMo

to Europe. Producers reportedly are quoting $30 per lb for

small quantities of spot FeMo, but buyers are staying out of

the market.

Market sentiment is definitely bullish. Traders point out that

oxide prices have managed to firm during a relatively slow

buying period. European suppliers believe that more mills will

be entering the market in the next two weeks, putting more

upward pressure on FeMo prices.

There are no bargains out of China, traders said. JDC is

continuing to offer oxide at $30 per lb. Everyone continues

to wait for the government to announce export quota

amounts. This may take longer than expected, given that the

government just last week sent out a notice to local commerce

authorities detailing requirements for obtaining export

licenses and instructing the commerce entities to submit a

list of eligible exporters by Mar. 16.

Qualified moly producing exporters should have more

than 3,000 mt of annual combined production and 300 mt of

annual combined exports for ferromoly and moly oxide in

the past three years. Moly content for moly oxide should be

above 51% and for ferromoly should be higher than 55%.

For moly metal and powders, the minimum annual production

and exports will be 300 mt and 20 mt. Trading exporters

are required to have more than 600 mt of combined exports

of ferromoly and moly oxide, and are required to have at

least 30-million yuan of registered capital. For moly metal

and powders the annual minimum exports are 200 mt.

The new regulations are likely to lead to reduced moly

exports. For many traders, the registered capital requirement

presents a problem. The government originally planned to

set up a 100-million-yuan minimum registered capital

requirement but lowered the number to 30-million yuan after

meeting strong resistance. Unqualified traders may have to

export through large producers or they may find ways to

increase their registered capital, sources said.


__._,_.___

[prof19]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.515.366 von extremrelaxer am 27.03.07 11:54:56

Ich gehe von einem Plus im heutigen kanadischen Handel von 10-15% aus!

Genau so hatte ich auch gedacht -- Pustekuchen

Indes scheinen die Instis warten zu können, bis die Zocker schmeissen. Denn die haben die Rechnung ohne den Wirt gemacht.

Grüße, Prof19

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Tuesday, March 27, 2007 4:45 PM ET

After Hours with Jim O'Connell and Kim Parlee

Blue Pearl Earnings !!!!

Ian McDonald, chairman and CEO, Blue Pearl Mining

[Firsteven]

Chinese & Saudi Billionaires Investing in Molybdenum. Message List

Reply | Forward Message #330 of 331 < Prev | Next >

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the largest molybdenum miner in China, plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$736.7 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.
In order to lure investors, the Luoyang-based company is expected to pay 30 percent of its profits as shareholder dividends, said a report by UBS, one of the sponsors of the initial public offering.

According to media reports, China Moly's US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) offer will receive support from major investors, including tycoons Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau-kee and Cheng Yu-tung, as well as Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. UBS and Morgan Stanley are handling the deal.

Morgan Stanley said the fair valuation of China Moly should fall between 10 and 15 times price to 2007 earnings, compared with metal producer Hunan Nonferrous Metal Corp's (2626) 15 times.

China Moly's open-pit Sandaozhuang mine is one of the world's largest molybdenum mines with an estimated mine life of 46 years.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company will post a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan this year, a 43 percent increase from last year.

Molybdenum, a transition metal, is used in high-strength alloys and in high-temperature steels. It is also used in oil pipelines, aircraft and missile parts.

Pigments are used in paints, inks, plastics and rubber materials.

UBS forecasts the average price for molybdenum will be US$22.50 per pound this year, from a peak average of US$33.90 in 2005 and US$25.11 in 2006.

Each 1 percent change in price could lead to 2.2 percent change in the firm's 2007 earnings.

The company started producing molybdenum downstream products in the second half of last year following an aggressive capital expansion of 618 million yuan in 2005 and 788 million yuan last year

[Firsteven]

Wie kommt der ausgewiesene Verlust zustande?

Auf den ersten Blick hätte Blue Pearl in den letzten 67 Tagen des Jahres 2006 (seit der Thompson-Creek-Übernahme) einen Gewinn ausweisen müssen, da pro Kalendertag nach Steuern 1 Mio US-$ Gewinn erzielt wird (Quelle: Aussage von McDonald bei der Präsentation am 21.11.2006 (Tondokument, abzuhören über www.bluepearl.com)), auch wenn man verschiedene Zusatzkosten und Einmaleffekte (Gewährung von Optionen an 110 Mitarbeiter) in Zusammenhang mit der Übernahme in Betracht zieht.

Tatsächlich jedoch wurden rund 20 Mio US-$ Verlust ausgewiesen (Quelle: Audited Annual Financial Statements vom 26.3.2007 bei www.sedar.com).
Die Zahlen, welche wesentlich zu der Berechnung des Verlustes beigetragen haben, habe ich in meinem Posting von gestern Mittag bereits erwähnt. Rein rechnerisch war mir der Weg zu diesem Verlust durchaus klar. Ich hatte jedoch zunächst ein Verständnisproblem, warum diese Zahlen zu dem Verlust führen. Nach längerer Überlegung und Analyse der Berichte bin ich zu folgender Erklärung gekommen:

Bei der Übernahme von Thompson Creek wurden 7,8 Mio Pfund Molybdän als Lagerbestand übernommen und dafür ein Betrag von 98,5 Mio US-$ berechnet (Quelle: MD&A vom 26.3.2007 bei www.sedar.com). Der bei den Übernahmeverhandlungen vereinbarte "faire Preis" pro Pfund, der an den Alteigentümer bezahlt wurde, betrug damit etwa 12,62 US-$ und ist somit rund doppelt so hoch, als wenn Blue Pearl dieses Moly selbst produziert hätte.

Aus diesem übernommenen Lagerbestand wurden etwa 70% (rund 5,7 Mio Pfund) nach dem FIFO-Prinzip in 2006 verkauft. Der Lagerbestand wurde aus der laufenden Produktion ergänzt und dürfte sich insgesamt kaum verändert haben.
Aufgrund der Buchhaltungsbestimmungen (McDonald hat dies in der Telefonkonferenz gestern kurz angesprochen) wurde der diesen Verkäufen zuzurechnende Einkaufspreis von rund 69 Mio US-$ als Kosten angesetzt. Für die laufende Produktion des Molybäns, das als Ersatz der verkauften Ware eingelagert wurde, fielen Kosten in einer Höhe von etwa 24 Mio US-$ an (3,846 Mio Pfund x 6,28 US-$ Produktionskosten (Quelle: MD&A)).
Weiter Kosten in Höhe von 46 Mio US-$ sind wohl unter anderem für den Betrieb von Langeloth (Fremdröstung sowie Ankauf-Röstung-Verkauf von Moly unter eigenem Namen) anzusetzen (Other operating expenses 70 Mio US-$ (24+46=70) Quelle MD&A).

Halten wir fest: Es wurden die Ankaufkosten des Lagerbestandes als Kosten verbucht (in doppelter Höhe der eigenen Produktionskosten) und zusätzlich die Kosten der laufenden Produktion, zusammen also ganz grob 69 Mio US-$ mehr als dem normalen Geschäftsbetrieb entspricht. Hingegen konnte der durch den angekauften Lagerbestand erhöhte Wert an Molybdän in der Gewinn- und Verlustrechnung keine Berücksichtigung finden, da eine nicht verkaufte Ware natürlich keine Einnahmen in Cash bringt. Als weitere Verschärfung kommt hinzu, dass dieser Mehrfach-Kostenaufwand für die gleiche Ware nur mit den Einnahmen von etwas über 2 Monaten gegengerechnet werden konnte.
Wenn man diese buchhaltungstechnisch bedingte Verzerrung herausrechnet (also nach dem gesunden Menschenverstand geht), dann hätte sich ein Gewinn in Höhe von 69 Mio abzüglich 20 Mio, also rund 49 Mio US-Dollar ergeben.

Um Einwürfen die Spitze zu nehmen:
Mir ist bewusst, dass die buchaltungstechnisch korrekte Vorgehensweise die einzig mögliche ist. Zur Beurteilung des zukünftigen Gewinns (und damit des Kurses der Aktie) entsteht so jedoch ein verzerrtes Bild. Die Anleger sollten zumindest nachvollziehen könne, warum ein Unternehmen, das eigentlich riesige Gewinne erwirtschaftet, auf dem Papier plötzlich Verlust ausweist.
Ich bitte um Diskussion, falls jemand die Sache anders beurteilt.

Im 1. Quartal 2007 wird sich die Sache übrigens auch noch etwas auswirken. Es sind noch etwa 30 Mio US-$ aus dem Lagerankauf nicht verrechnet (da in 2006 noch nicht verkauft). Vermutlich wird dies jedoch dadurch über-kompensiert, dass der Lagerbestand in diesem Quartal verringert wurde (Quelle: Mail von Wayne Cheveldayoff an "therefore", gepostet hier im Thread am 11.3.2007) und damit zusätzliche Einnahmen von etwa 25-30 US-$ pro Pfund generiert wurden.

chartex

[Firsteven]

Codelco Says Molybdenum Demand to Remain Strong This Year
2007-03-27 11:03 (New York)

By Matthew Craze
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's state-owned Codelco said
demand for molybdenum, the country's second-biggest export, will
remain strong in 2007, underpinning prices close to 2006 levels.
Production of molybdenum, which is used to strengthen
steel, will be little changed this year from 2006, Codelco
Executive President Jose Pablo Arellano told reporters today in
Santiago. Codelco gets 15 percent of its revenue from the metal.
The price of ferromolybdenum, a raw material used by
steelmakers, has gained 24 percent in the past 12 months,
according to data from U.K. publisher Metal Bulletin.

--With reporting by Matthew Walter in Santiago. Editor:
McKiernan

[Firsteven]

Codelco Says Molybdenum Demand to Remain Strong This Year
2007-03-27 11:03 (New York)

By Matthew Craze
March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's state-owned Codelco said
demand for molybdenum, the country's second-biggest export, will
remain strong in 2007, underpinning prices close to 2006 levels.
Production of molybdenum, which is used to strengthen
steel, will be little changed this year from 2006, Codelco
Executive President Jose Pablo Arellano told reporters today in
Santiago. Codelco gets 15 percent of its revenue from the metal.
The price of ferromolybdenum, a raw material used by
steelmakers, has gained 24 percent in the past 12 months,
according to data from U.K. publisher Metal Bulletin.

--With reporting by Matthew Walter in Santiago. Editor:
McKiernan

[Firsteven]

Re: [MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum] All On The Molybdenum Bandwagon


Definitely looks like a bubble about to burst IMO.

Ken Reser wrote:
>
>
> /Take a gander at the list of Co's now on the Moly bandwagon. Sure glad
> my Jr company of investment choice, *Adanac Molybdenum* started
> their project over 3 yrs ago!! This is almost a joke...Thanks to the
> fellow at Gold-Eagle who compiled this list. Sorry if it missed any...KR/
>


--
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.5.446 / Virus Database: 268.18.20/736 - Release Date: 27/03/07 4:38
PM
Re: All On The Molybdenum Bandwagon


Bill..As long as Molybdenum price stays high most will hang in, but
if any Moly negativity comes along then the bubble for those still in
the early exploration stage will pop quickly for sure. Consider that
only 1 or 2 on that entire list that I'm aware of (outside of any
current producers) have even completed a Pre or Final Feasibility
Study. Most don't even hold NI 43-101 Compliance or Scoping Studies
on their project at hand. This is why I harp in my editorials & posts
about doing some SERIOUS DD on company websites. Great playing field
for day traders, but also MANY MANY poor choices for any longterm
investment...KR

[Firsteven]

Molybdenum Mine Facing Rough Ride
Investor warns CEO of opposition in Smithers:
The Province; with files from Canadian Press
Published: Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Toronto-based Blue Pearl Mining, the world's biggest publicly traded molybdenum producer, may face a challenge in developing a mining property near Smithers.

Blue Pearl CEO Kevin Loughrey expressed optimism yesterday during an analysts' conference call that the Davidson project will receive environmental approval.

But a local investor said the "left-wing council" in the area opposes the project. "I'm not sure I hold your optimism for how easy your permitting process is going to be," the investor told Loughrey.

"Some of us who do hold stock up here, who aren't anti-mining, that's the feeling we're getting about this project, that it's not going to be as smooth as you seem to say."
Loughrey said the company is confident it can work out the issues being raised by the community. "We'll listen to the community and, obviously, do what we can to allay any concerns they have," he said.

The company is planning to construct a new bypass road in response to some residents who opposed the location of the road that had been planned initially, Loughrey said.

A feasibility study on the Davidson project is expected to be completed in the second quarter. Blue Pearl told analysts it is seeking to raise its corporate profile in the U.S.

Blue Pearl expects to adopt the name of the major U.S. company it bought last fall, Thompson Creek Metals, and will apply for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange.

Blue Pearl acquired the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho last October. The name change is subject to shareholder approval at the annual meeting May 10. "Blue Pearl has been a very successful name for this company obviously and it has prospered under that name," Loughrey said.

"However, in terms of all of our customers and most of our employees, the communities in which we operate and the molybdenum industry generally -- and the customers who buy from our customers -- the name Thompson Creek is the name that's associated with our products, and we believe it's going to be in the best interest of the company and the shareholders."

Wayne Cheveldayoff, Blue Pearl's director of investor relations, said the U.S. stock listing is meant to appeal to a broader range of investors in the U.S.

Loughrey said global demand for moly, which is used to harden steel, should remain strong as demand continues to grow at a rate of four per cent per year.

Blue Pearl expects to produce 21 million pounds in 2007 and 27 million pounds the year after from the Thompson Creek mine and its Endako mine at Fraser Lake, B.C. Endako has an estimated seven-year mine life based on proven and probable mineral reserves.

Loughrey said a re-evaluation of Blue Pearl's resources and reserves is under way, using higher molybdenum prices in calculations, to reflect the current market.

The company posted a 2006 loss of $20.6 million US, or 36 cents per diluted share. A year earlier, when Blue Pearl was still in development and before the Thompson Creek Metals purchase, the 2005 loss was $4.1 million, or 13 cents per share.

Production costs from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $6.28 a pound, while selling prices averaged $25.74 per pound.




© The Vancouver Province 2007

[Firsteven]

Canadian Province to Get First New Metals Mine in a Decade

NewswireToday - /newswire/ - Sarasota, FL, United States, 03/28/2007 - One Canadian province is ready to get its first new metals mine in a decade, according to a recently published interview on StockInterview.com. Higher molybdenum prices offer a blessing to a delayed mine opening.


Just as Chinese molybdenum exports may be falling, Canada's province of British Columbia could have its first new metals mine opening in the next few months. Roca Mines' MAX underground molybdenum mine is now in the final construction stage, according an interview conducted with the company's chief executive. Roca Mines Scott Broughton told StockInterview, "We have 50 people working at the site, all working hard to make it come together. We are going to be very proud of it when it's all bolted together, and it's actually producing cash flow."

A record winter snowfall delayed mill construction at the mine site, but this provided the company an opportunity to expand production capacity. Broughton said this allowed the company to "accelerate the installation of a second mill, ball mill in our concentrator. That was going to allow us to recover from a delayed start-up and still meet the production targets that we would like to meet for 2007."

According to the recent interview, Broughton told StockInterview.com he thought his company could still meet its 2007 production target of three million pounds of molybdenum.

About Stockinterview.com

Stockinterview.com is an online news service, which provides investigative reporting, editorial, analysis and provocative commentary of the nuclear fuel cycle, uranium mining, nuclear power, energy and the environment, biotechnology research and the natural resource industry. StockInterview.com is now the most popular website for uranium mining stocks as a result of its best-selling publication, "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks."

The 304-page trade softcover edition of "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market," is now available online by visiting: bookstore.stockinterview.com or Amazon.com by visiting amazon.com The publication is now offered in U.S. bookstores. Please check with your local bookseller for availability.

[Firsteven]

Ed; Note: I and many others see higher Moly prices in /07 FWIW....KR


28 March 2007

Chile's Codelco Sees Moly Prices Firm in 2007, Output Steady
Source: Platts




Chile's national Copper company Codelco expects prices for Molybdenum, the most important byproduct in its mines, to remaim firm this year, the company's executive president Jose Pablo Arellano said Tuesday.
"This year we are going to have a firm situation in the Molybdenum market with solid prices," the executive said, adding that prices were likely to range around levels seen in 2006. "We are working with prices similar to last year," he said.

Production at the company's mines is expected to be similar to the 27,200 mt produced last year, he said.

[Firsteven]

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Energy Guru Eric Sprott Wants More Molybdenum




Canada's legendary natural resource investor, Eric Sprott, has got moly fever! His eponymous management firm is now preparing a molybdenum participation fund, which will buy and sell physical molybdenum. The Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp will also invest in companies that explore for, mine and process the metal.

Sound familiar? Uranium Participation Corp debuted in late 2005, accumulating physical uranium for as low as US$20/pound range. Shares in the uranium fund nearly doubled in 2006 in tandem with the spot uranium price.

We interviewed Eric Sprott in October 2004, when he forecast the steep rise in uranium and offered his selection. As usual Sprott Asset Management had entered the uranium market through large, very speculative investments in complete unknowns. Since then, those unfamiliar penny stocks have begun boasting market capitalizations well above $1 billion. Examples include SXR Uranium One, which recently announced a $5 billion merger with UrAsia, and Paladin Resources, which once traded at for three cents, and is now capitalized around C$3 billion.

We followed many 'Sprott stocks,' some trading sub-$1/share in 2004, and which have recently traded above $12/share – such as Energy Metals. At one point, the Sprott family of funds held more than 20 percent of the shares in uranium companies such as Energy Metals and Strathmore Minerals. In late February, Jim Cramer recommended Energy Metals on his 'Mad Money' television show.

Last summer's big question in Canada's financial circles and in the media was: 'What will be Eric Sprott's next big thing?' We concluded it would be molybdenum stocks and reported on that in late July. We interviewed Sprott Asset Management research associate Maria Smirnova and discussed how investing in molybdenum stocks might be another way to ride the energy bull.

While nickel, zinc and uranium prices have soared, molybdenum lagged behind in 2006. After a stellar 2005, during which moly prices jumped to a record $40, increased byproduct mining from copper producers brought the moly price back into the twenties.

But that may not last long. Changes in China's export laws may help the molybdenum price firm up, according to Ken Reser, one of the early molybdenum mining commentators. In our email exchanges, Reser strongly believes the molybdenum price could go much higher. He's backed Adanac Molybdenum Corp, a company which hopes to bring its large Ruby Creek deposit into production in 2009.

Early Sprott favorite, Blue Pearl Mining, has since become the world's fifth largest primary molybdenum producer and is the world's largest publicly traded primary molybdenum company. The key word is "since." After Eric Sprott began backing the company, Blue Pearl announced the acquisition of privately held Thompson Creek Metals Company for US$575 million. The acquisition brought the then-tiny company into the molybdenum mining spotlight. During 2007, the company plans to produce about 21 million pounds of molybdenum (gross value at Friday's closing price: US$593 million). That's about five percent of global molybdenum mining production!

Another Sprott favorite, Roca Mines hopes to commence molybdenum mining operations this spring as a small-scale producer in British Columbia. The company hopes to expand its molybdenum deposit by pouring in some of the cash flow from its mining production during the first year in hopes of building a much bigger moly mine.

Judging from Eric Sprott's keen investment eye, the molybdenum price may soon be rising again. And, of course, so will the moly stocks his fund invests in. (We have no relationship with Sprott Asset Management.)

COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.



James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. His focus on the uranium mining and nuclear fuel sector resulted in the widely popular "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market," which is now available on http://www.stockinterview.com and on http://www.amazon.com Please visit StockInterview's molybdenum educational page at http://www.stockinterview.com/molybdenum.html

[Firsteven]

Und weil es so schön ist dieser Beitrag nochmal. Wenn ich richtig gerechnet habe, dann verdienen die weniger als Blue Pearl in 2007 - und sollen mit einem KGV von 10-15 bewertet werden!
Wenn sich die Bewertung von Blue Pearl dem dann auch anpasst, dann bekommen wir Kurse von 30 USD + !!!!! je nach Entwicklung des Moly-Preises.


Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the largest molybdenum miner in China, plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$736.7 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.
In order to lure investors, the Luoyang-based company is expected to pay 30 percent of its profits as shareholder dividends, said a report by UBS, one of the sponsors of the initial public offering.

According to media reports, China Moly's US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) offer will receive support from major investors, including tycoons Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau-kee and Cheng Yu-tung, as well as Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal . UBS and Morgan Stanley are handling the deal.

Morgan Stanley said the fair valuation of China Moly should fall between 10 and 15 times price to 2007 earnings, compared with metal producer Hunan Nonferrous Metal Corp's (2626) 15 times.

China Moly's open-pit Sandaozhuang mine is one of the world's largest molybdenum mines with an estimated mine life of 46 years.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company will post a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan this year, a 43 percent increase from last year.

Molybdenum, a transition metal, is used in high-strength alloys and in high-temperature steels. It is also used in oil pipelines, aircraft and missile parts.

Pigments are used in paints, inks, plastics and rubber materials.

UBS forecasts the average price for molybdenum will be US$22.50 per pound this year, from a peak average of US$33.90 in 2005 and US$25.11 in 2006.

Each 1 percent change in price could lead to 2.2 percent change in the firm's 2007 earnings.

The company started producing molybdenum downstream products in the second half of last year following an aggressive capital expansion of 618 million yuan in 2005 and 788 million yuan last year

[Firsteven]

BLUE PEARL MINING LTD



Early Watch: Blue Pearl Reports Cash Flow from Operating Activities in 2006
3/28/2007

Mar 28, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Market Gainer is quickly emerging as the one stop shop for international small-cap investors looking to stay a step ahead of the markets. Today's activity on the market has brought this company to the attention of our research team. Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE), is responding to the attention of investors. Our goal is to create a community of international investors who consistently and effectively capitalize on the enormous gains the small-cap Canadian and American exchanges offer.

Highlights of 2006 reflecting acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC) (all in U.S. dollars):

- Revenues for the fourth quarter and full year 2006 totaled $150.8 million -- all occurring from sales mainly of molybdenum in the 67 days following the acquisition -- amounting to approximately $2.25 million per day in the period October 26 to December 31, 2006.

- Cash flow from operating activities, mostly in the post-acquisition period, totaled $75.4 million.

- Company ended 2006 with cash balances of $98.1 million after paying, subsequent to closing, $61.5 million owed to the TCMC vendors relating to accounts receivable as provided for in the TCMC acquisition agreement. The Company's cash balances as of March 22, 2007 were approximately $135 million after also paying $64.3 million, including a prepayment premium, to discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility on March 15, 2007.

- Molybdenum production costs for output from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $6.28 per pound while realized prices on molybdenum sales averaged $25.74 per pound.

- Net loss of $20.6 million in 2006 includes $68.9 million of inventory purchase price adjustment included in operating expenses and a non-cash charge of $14.5 million for stock options compensation.

- Conference call and webcast for analysts and investors scheduled for March 27, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, today announced financial results for the year ended December 31, 2006 prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Blue Pearl's revenues totaled $150.8 million in 2006, derived mainly from the sale of molybdenum products subsequent to the Company's acquisition on October 26, 2006 of Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC). No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in 2005 as it was in the development stage.

Operating expenses in 2006, which were incurred by TCMC during the period October 26 to December 31, 2006, totaled $145.1 million. Included in operating expenses was an acquisition expense of $68.9 million related to the inventory portion of the TCMC purchase price adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of molybdenum in inventory on the acquisition date and this inventory was deemed to be purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an uplift of inventory costs of $98.5 million over the original book value. Of this, $68.9 million was charged to operating expenses in 2006 and the remaining $29.6 million is expected to be charged to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory is sold. Blue Pearl had no operating expenses in 2005.

Among the Company's other 2006 expenses was a non-cash charge of $14.5 million for stock-based compensation as a result of options being granted to 110 members of management, senior operations personnel, directors and other staff. Stock-based compensation in 2005 was $0.4 million.

General and administrative expenses totaled $4.6 million in 2006, compared with $1.5 million in 2005. Exploration and development expenses, which were mainly related to the Davidson Project, were $8.6 million in 2006 versus $2.3 million a year earlier.

Net loss for 2006 was $20.6 million or $0.36 per basic and diluted share, compared with a net loss for 2005 of $4.1 million or $0.13 per basic and diluted share. The per share figures are based on a weighted-average number of shares outstanding of 57,688,000 in 2006 and 31,879,000 in 2005. As of December 31, 2006, there were 100,528,000 shares outstanding.

Cash generated by operating activities totaled $75.4 million in 2006, compared with cash used of $2.7 million in 2005.

Cash balances were $98.1 million as at December 31, 2006 versus $6.9 million a year earlier.

During 2006, mainly to finance the TCMC acquisition, the Company raised $233.7 million from equity issues and incurred $401.9 million in long-term debt. In 2005, $9.8 million was raised from equity issues.

Total assets at the end of 2006 were $935.7 million, up from $8.4 million a year earlier.

Revenues in the fourth quarter of 2006 were $150.8 million. There were no revenues in the fourth quarter of 2005. Net loss was $12.4 million or $0.14 per basic and diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2006, compared with $2.5 million or $0.06 per basic and diluted share in the corresponding period of 2005.

In 2006, the Company, following the TCMC acquisition, produced 3.84 million pounds of molybdenum at an average production cost of $6.28 per pound. The Company's U.S. operations produced 2.47 million pounds at an average cost of $5.83 per pound while the Canadian operations produced 1.37 million pounds at an average cost of $7.30 per pound. The amounts produced reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the Company. The average costs reflect production costs, including roasting costs, for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.

Outlook

The price of molybdenum, which averaged $4.50 per pound between 1994 and 2004, peaked at $40 per pound in June 2005 and has since moderated somewhat. In 2006, the average price of molybdenum remained historically strong at approximately $25 per pound. The expected trends in supply and demand for molybdenum suggest a positive near-term outlook for the price. Barring a world recession, demand for molybdenum is expected to continue to grow. In the absence of new supply coming from China and given numerous constraints on overall production growth outside of China, the price of molybdenum is expected to remain relatively strong in the near future.

As previously announced, the Company is expecting to produce 21 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 and 27 million pounds in 2008 from its existing Thompson Creek and Endako mines. This production profile and the anticipated strong sales prices are expected to produce strong cash flow for the Company and to allow the Company to meet its cash requirements for operations, capital expenditures, debt payments and any contingent payment accruing during 2007.

One of the Company's goals is to reduce its long-term debt. As previously announced, the Company prepaid in full its $61.9 million Second Lien Credit Facility plus a prepayment premium of $2.5 million on March 15, 2007. The remaining bank debt of approximately $340 million (First Lien Credit Facility), on which the Company is required to pay principal of $18.75 million per quarter in 2007, can be prepaid without penalty and if molybdenum prices remain sufficiently strong then debt payments will be made above the scheduled minimum amounts. The Company's cash balances on March 22, 2007 were approximately $135 million. As of the end of March 2007, after the regular quarterly payment on the First Lien is made at month-end, Blue Pearl's bank debt is expected to be less than $320 million.

Both the Thompson Creek and Endako Mines are developing new plans based on a reevaluation of mineral resources and reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of $10 per pound and updated costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and $3.50 per pound at Endako. The new plans are expected to increase reserves and mine life at both operations when they are completed in 2007.

The Davidson Deposit, which is Canada's largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit, is important to the Company's future as it represents an opportunity for organic growth at low capital cost. The deposit's high-grade core is easily accessible with minimal impact to the environment. A feasibility study including a new mineral reserve estimate is currently underway and is expected to be completed during the second quarter of 2007.

Additional information on the Company's financial position is available in Blue Pearl's 2006 Financial Statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis, which will be filed with SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and posted on the Company's website (www.bluepearl.ca).

Conference call and webcast

Blue Pearl will hold a conference call for analysts and investors to discuss its 2006 financial results on March 27, 2007 at 10 a.m. (Eastern).

Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman, Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Derek Price, Chief Financial Officer, will be available to answer questions during the call.

To participate in the call, please dial 416-695-6623 or 1-877-323-2090 about five minutes prior to the start of the call.

A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at www.ccnmatthews.com and www.bluepearl.ca.

An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-695-5275 or 1-888-509-0081 (Passcode 641830) from 12:00 p.m. on March 27 to 11:59 p.m. on April 3. An archived recording of the webcast will also be available at Blue Pearl's website.

[schnucksche]

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Energy Guru Eric Sprott Wants More Molybdenum




Canada's legendary natural resource investor, Eric Sprott, has got moly fever! His eponymous management firm is now preparing a molybdenum participation fund, which will buy and sell physical molybdenum. The Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp will also invest in companies that explore for, mine and process the metal.

Sound familiar? Uranium Participation Corp debuted in late 2005, accumulating physical uranium for as low as US$20/pound range. Shares in the uranium fund nearly doubled in 2006 in tandem with the spot uranium price.

We interviewed Eric Sprott in October 2004, when he forecast the steep rise in uranium and offered his selection. As usual Sprott Asset Management had entered the uranium market through large, very speculative investments in complete unknowns. Since then, those unfamiliar penny stocks have begun boasting market capitalizations well above $1 billion. Examples include SXR Uranium One, which recently announced a $5 billion merger with UrAsia, and Paladin Resources, which once traded at for three cents, and is now capitalized around C$3 billion.

We followed many 'Sprott stocks,' some trading sub-$1/share in 2004, and which have recently traded above $12/share – such as Energy Metals. At one point, the Sprott family of funds held more than 20 percent of the shares in uranium companies such as Energy Metals and Strathmore Minerals. In late February, Jim Cramer recommended Energy Metals on his 'Mad Money' television show.

Last summer's big question in Canada's financial circles and in the media was: 'What will be Eric Sprott's next big thing?' We concluded it would be molybdenum stocks and reported on that in late July. We interviewed Sprott Asset Management research associate Maria Smirnova and discussed how investing in molybdenum stocks might be another way to ride the energy bull.

While nickel, zinc and uranium prices have soared, molybdenum lagged behind in 2006. After a stellar 2005, during which moly prices jumped to a record $40, increased byproduct mining from copper producers brought the moly price back into the twenties.

But that may not last long. Changes in China's export laws may help the molybdenum price firm up, according to Ken Reser, one of the early molybdenum mining commentators. In our email exchanges, Reser strongly believes the molybdenum price could go much higher. He's backed Adanac Molybdenum Corp, a company which hopes to bring its large Ruby Creek deposit into production in 2009.

Early Sprott favorite, Blue Pearl Mining, has since become the world's fifth largest primary molybdenum producer and is the world's largest publicly traded primary molybdenum company. The key word is "since." After Eric Sprott began backing the company, Blue Pearl announced the acquisition of privately held Thompson Creek Metals Company for US$575 million. The acquisition brought the then-tiny company into the molybdenum mining spotlight. During 2007, the company plans to produce about 21 million pounds of molybdenum (gross value at Friday's closing price: US$593 million). That's about five percent of global molybdenum mining production!

Another Sprott favorite, Roca Mines hopes to commence molybdenum mining operations this spring as a small-scale producer in British Columbia. The company hopes to expand its molybdenum deposit by pouring in some of the cash flow from its mining production during the first year in hopes of building a much bigger moly mine.

Judging from Eric Sprott's keen investment eye, the molybdenum price may soon be rising again. And, of course, so will the moly stocks his fund invests in. (We have no relationship with Sprott Asset Management.)

COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.



James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. His focus on the uranium mining and nuclear fuel sector resulted in the widely popular "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market," which is now available on http://www.stockinterview.com and on http://www.amazon.com Please visit StockInterview's molybdenum educational page at http://www.stockinterview.com/molybdenum.html




__._,_.___

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
Blue Pearl Plans Listing in New York, Chief Executive Says

By Rob Delaney

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., a metal producer that was the second-best performer on Canada's main stock index in the past year, said it may list on the New York Stock Exchange to boost demand for its shares, an executive said.

The producer of molybdenum, a copper byproduct that strengthens steel, plans to list existing shares or sell new shares on the New York bourse, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Loughrey said today in a telephone interview in Toronto.

``There's a dearth of new molybdenum opportunities in the near future,'' Loughrey said. Restrictions on exports of the metal from China will support prices and encourages Blue Pearl to expand, he said.

The Toronto-based company's shares have increased more than threefold over the past year on the Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index. The performance was driven by a 25 percent rise in global molybdenum prices that has helped other miners of the metal used to make oil pipelines and tools, such as Perth, Australia-based Moly Mines Ltd. Shares of Moly Mines have doubled this month.

``The oil and gas plays are developing'' as quickly as possible, Anthona Curic, mining analyst at Research Capital in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. That helps Blue Pearl because those projects use steel reinforced with molybdenum to add durability, Curic said.

Global molybdenum demand will rise this year by at least 4 percent to 426.4 million pounds from 410 million pounds in 2006, Loughrey said. Higher prices will allow Blue Pearl to increase the amount of reserves it can profitably mine beyond the 742 million pounds it has already identified, he said.

China Supply

China will eliminate rebates on exports of industrial metals, including molybdenum, to force Chinese producers to become more efficient, state news agency Xinhua reported last week, citing Deputy Finance Minister Li Yong.

That may decrease global supply, Curic said. ``China, which has always been an exporter, looks to switch to become an importer because the mines in production have been mandated to have a certain capacity level and a certain production level, so you'll see some smaller mines disappear.''

Blue Pearl announced yesterday that it had a loss in 2006, its first year of production, because of expenses related to the acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals Co., which doubled its molybdenum reserves. Blue Pearl had a net loss of $20.6 million on sales of $151 million, which were derived mainly from the company's Oct. 26 purchase of Idaho-based Thompson Creek.

Blue Pearl's shares fell 57 cents, or 4.7 percent, to C$11.49 at 2:09 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. Before today, they had risen by 31 percent this month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Delaney in Toronto at [e-mail]

Last Updated: March 27, 2007 14:25 EDT

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Plans Listing in New York, Chief Says (Update1)

By Rob Delaney

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., a metal producer that was the second-best performer on Canada's main stock index in the past year, said it may list on the New York Stock Exchange to increase demand for its shares, an executive said.

The producer of molybdenum, a copper byproduct that strengthens steel, plans to list existing shares or sell new stock on the New York bourse, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Loughrey said today in a telephone interview in Toronto.

``There's a dearth of new molybdenum opportunities in the near future,'' which will support prices, Loughrey said. Restrictions on exports of the metal from China are a ``modest hurdle'' for producers there, he said.

The Toronto-based company's shares have increased more than threefold over the past year on the Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index. The performance was driven by a 25 percent rise in global molybdenum prices that has helped other miners of the metal used to make oil pipelines and tools, such as Perth, Australia-based Moly Mines Ltd. Shares of Moly Mines have doubled this month.

``The oil and gas plays are developing'' as quickly as possible, Anthona Curic, mining analyst at Research Capital in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. That helps Blue Pearl because those projects use steel reinforced with molybdenum to add durability, Curic said.

Demand Seen Rising

Global molybdenum demand will rise this year by at least 4 percent to 426.4 million pounds from 410 million pounds in 2006, Loughrey said. Higher prices will allow Blue Pearl to increase the amount of reserves it can profitably mine beyond the 742 million pounds it has already identified, he said.

China will eliminate rebates on exports of industrial metals, including molybdenum, to force Chinese producers to become more efficient, state news agency Xinhua reported last week, citing Deputy Finance Minister Li Yong.

That may decrease global supply, Curic said. ``China, which has always been an exporter, looks to switch to become an importer because the mines in production have been mandated to have a certain capacity level and a certain production level, so you'll see some smaller mines disappear.''

Blue Pearl announced yesterday that it had a loss in 2006, its first year of production, because of expenses related to the acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals Co., which doubled its molybdenum reserves. Blue Pearl had a net loss of $20.6 million on sales of $151 million, which were derived mainly from the company's Oct. 26 purchase of Idaho-based Thompson Creek.

Blue Pearl shareholders will vote in May on a proposal to adopt the Thompson Creek name, which the company's customers identify with more, Loughrey said on a conference call with analysts today.

Shares of Blue Pearl fell 43 cents, or 3.6 percent, to C$11.63 at 4:10 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. Before today, they had risen by 31 percent this month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Delaney in Toronto at [e-mail]

Last Updated: March 27, 2007 16:27 EDT

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl, Bombardier, Nortel, Nexen: Canadian Equity Preview

By John Kipphoff and Lynn Thomasson

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose shares may have unusual price changes in Canadian markets today. This preview includes news that broke after markets closed yesterday. Symbols are in parentheses after company names and prices are from the last close.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index fell 84.12, or 0.6 percent, to 13,218.76, yesterday in Toronto.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (BLE CN): The metal producer, which was the second-best performer on Canada's main stock index in the past year, may list or sell new stock on the New York Stock Exchange to increase demand for its shares, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Loughrey said yesterday in a telephone interview in Toronto. Blue Pearl produces molybdenum, a copper byproduct that strengthens steel. The shares slipped 43 cents, or 3.6 percent, to C$11.63.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (BLE CN) rose 62 cents, or 5.3 percent, to C$12.25. The metal producer that was the second-best performer on Canada's main stock index in the past year, may list or sell new stock on the New York Stock Exchange to increase demand for its shares, Chief Executive Officer Kevin Loughrey said yesterday in a telephone interview in Toronto. Blue Pearl produces molybdenum, a copper byproduct that strengthens steel.

[Firsteven]

SUBJECT: FidelC Posted By: rory17
Post Time: 3/28/2007 11:48

I hope all is well in Germany. I am very pleased with the markets reaction to BLE Earnings release yesterday and my expectations are that it will continue to move higher. The next resistance level looks like $13.00. That could be surpassed depending upon pending news releases regarding "revised mineral resources and reserves for all three operations". The company is now on the radar screens of the big institutions and they are looking for $25.00 to $30.00 target. Good luck to you and i will pass along whatever I can. Rory

[Firsteven]

#3: BLE, Blue Pearl Mining, exellent management, biggest moly producer, Sprott Asset Management relationship, however recent run up + deposit only equal size as Tenajon's will make long term investors of BLE think twice if it is not time to shift some money into Tenajon's prospects to gain %1000 a second time as opposed to maybe 30 % in 3 months. Price Target:$15.80 (by April 15th, 2007)

[Firsteven]

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/money/story.html?id=c…



Molybdenum mine facing rough ride
Investor warns CEO of opposition in Smithers
The Province; with files from Canadian Press
Published: Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Toronto-based Blue Pearl Mining, the world's biggest publicly traded molybdenum producer, may face a challenge in developing a mining property near Smithers.

Blue Pearl CEO Kevin Loughrey expressed optimism yesterday during an analysts' conference call that the Davidson project will receive environmental approval.

But a local investor said the "left-wing council" in the area opposes the project. "I'm not sure I hold your optimism for how easy your permitting process is going to be," the investor told Loughrey.


Email to a friend

Printer friendly
Font: ****"Some of us who do hold stock up here, who aren't anti-mining, that's the feeling we're getting about this project, that it's not going to be as smooth as you seem to say."

Loughrey said the company is confident it can work out the issues being raised by the community. "We'll listen to the community and, obviously, do what we can to allay any concerns they have," he said.

The company is planning to construct a new bypass road in response to some residents who opposed the location of the road that had been planned initially, Loughrey said.

A feasibility study on the Davidson project is expected to be completed in the second quarter. Blue Pearl told analysts it is seeking to raise its corporate profile in the U.S.

Blue Pearl expects to adopt the name of the major U.S. company it bought last fall, Thompson Creek Metals, and will apply for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange.

Blue Pearl acquired the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho last October. The name change is subject to shareholder approval at the annual meeting May 10. "Blue Pearl has been a very successful name for this company obviously and it has prospered under that name," Loughrey said.

"However, in terms of all of our customers and most of our employees, the communities in which we operate and the molybdenum industry generally -- and the customers who buy from our customers -- the name Thompson Creek is the name that's associated with our products, and we believe it's going to be in the best interest of the company and the shareholders."

Wayne Cheveldayoff, Blue Pearl's director of investor relations, said the U.S. stock listing is meant to appeal to a broader range of investors in the U.S.

Loughrey said global demand for moly, which is used to harden steel, should remain strong as demand continues to grow at a rate of four per cent per year.

Blue Pearl expects to produce 21 million pounds in 2007 and 27 million pounds the year after from the Thompson Creek mine and its Endako mine at Fraser Lake, B.C. Endako has an estimated seven-year mine life based on proven and probable mineral reserves.

Loughrey said a re-evaluation of Blue Pearl's resources and reserves is under way, using higher molybdenum prices in calculations, to reflect the current market.

The company posted a 2006 loss of $20.6 million US, or 36 cents per diluted share. A year earlier, when Blue Pearl was still in development and before the Thompson Creek Metals purchase, the 2005 loss was $4.1 million, or 13 cents per share.

Production costs from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $6.28 a pound, while selling prices averaged $25.74 per pound.

[Firsteven]

GMP has increased their target price from C$12 to C$14 for Blue Pearl.


UBS soll ebenfalls heute sein Kursziel angepasst haben!


David Charles of GMP.... Posted By: fabdaq
Post Time: 3/28/2007 11:41
« Previous Message Next Message »

i think a gradual revision of a price target is better than an extreme one. A gradual increase gives the target/analyst legitimacy and when the new target is reached one can reevaluate and revise (upward). Example of the opposite is ubs with fcp and most lately with one of my favourite oils cvi.a. About three weeks ago ubs gave this $7 stock a $32 price target. Get frickn real who is going to buy into that forecast - NO ONE - look at the share price today - it went nowhere - had they come out with a $12 target the market may have taken it seriously and the stock move but $32 get real - there is no legitimacy too it. Gradual and believable revisions r better!! PS I will now ? UBS forecasts on every stock as their credibility is sinking!!


Up TIC News In The Near Future Posted By: Firecat
Post Time: 3/28/2007 13:47
« Previous Message Next Message »

In No Order,China announces new moly export tax,Update on BLE Davidson Mine and on Sprott moly fund .Hang in there to make some serious money.Life changing stocks don't come aroung that often.


2007 revenues are expected.... Posted By: benh1215
Post Time: 3/28/2007 14:07
« Previous Message Next Message »

to come in @ between $750-$850 Million....and the current market capitalization is approx.$1.25 Billion.Now tell me why a major would not want to purchase this CF machine.Based on management,assets,zero political risk,and fundamentals BLE should be trading at a premium....not this absurd discount.A true"molymania"would value BLE at $50 or more.Long and strong.

[Firsteven]

Note: This deserves a repost from yesterday as it "IS" big news. When Billionaires start following and investing in a Molybdenum Mine, it WILL NOT go unnoticed by other big money, Funds & Institutions etc. Just another bit of insight & a sign of the times of what will happen to the next Molybdenum Mines to open.... KR


Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the largest molybdenum miner in China, plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$736.7 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.
In order to lure investors, the Luoyang-based company is expected to pay 30 percent of its profits as shareholder dividends, said a report by UBS, one of the sponsors of the initial public offering.

According to media reports, China Moly's US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) offer will receive support from major investors, including tycoons Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau-kee and Cheng Yu-tung, as well as Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. UBS and Morgan Stanley are handling the deal.

Morgan Stanley said the fair valuation of China Moly should fall between 10 and 15 times price to 2007 earnings, compared with metal producer Hunan Nonferrous Metal Corp's (2626) 15 times.

China Moly's open-pit Sandaozhuang mine is one of the world's largest molybdenum mines with an estimated mine life of 46 years.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company will post a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan this year, a 43 percent increase from last year.

Molybdenum, a transition metal, is used in high-strength alloys and in high-temperature steels. It is also used in oil pipelines, aircraft and missile parts.

Pigments are used in paints, inks, plastics and rubber materials.

UBS forecasts the average price for molybdenum will be US$22.50 per pound this year, from a peak average of US$33.90 in 2005 and US$25.11 in 2006.

Each 1 percent change in price could lead to 2.2 percent change in the firm's 2007 earnings.

The company started producing molybdenum downstream products in the second half of last year following an aggressive capital expansion of 618 million yuan in 2005 and 788 million yuan last year

Ken Reeser

[sloopjohn]

Good golly, Ms Moly

Molybdenum is up 1000% in the past five years, and suddenly a $12bn a year market, with a new ETF.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wednesday , 28 Mar 2007

JOHANNESBURG -
Like nickel and uranium, among others, molybdenum is up 1000% or so in the past five years. The metal, known in the trade and among specialist investors as "moly", and mostly used in steel alloying for hardening and corrosion resistance, is now in a $12bn a year market, but is it still worth a punt?

This week sees the launch of a molybdenum Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) (Bloomberg: MBMOEUOX <Commodity>, "Sprott Moly", run by well-regarded Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott and his team. The objective is to invest up to C$150m in molybdenum equities (75% of the fund) and 25% in the metal itself. Sprott has arranged to buy "moly" from the largest pure play producer, Blue Pearl (BLE, C$12.06, with a C$1.25bn market capitalization).

The molybdenum market is currently running at around 400m pounds a year, and is said to be growing at a minimum of 4% annually. The metal's subscribers describe it as the "energy" metal, given how much it's used in the crude oil and gas business.
Sprott himself subscribes to the "peak oil" school of thought, which holds that global crude oil production is peaking, meaning more drilling for every new unit discovered. Sprott tells investors that a 5,000 foot oil well requires 50 tons of molybdenum-hardened steel to drill; a 15,000 foot well requires a magnificent 1,100 tons. Nearly 80% of all wells drilled today are deeper than 8,000 feet.

As for supply, China (currently 20% of world molybdenum production) is consistently digging out less as small operators increasingly fall foul of new environmental, tariff and quota constraints. Like a number of other metals, molybdenum has historically been dug out as a by-product. About 60% of current global molybdenum production ranks as by-product.
Phelps Dodge, Codelco, Rio Tinto, Grupo Mexico, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Anglo American produce molybdenum on the outskirts of copper porphyry operations. Insiders reckon that most of these producers high-graded molybdenum output during the 2005 spike to $40/pound, such that 2007-8 molybdenum production profiles are largely flat.

Big changes are on the way. A secular shift in copper output will see growth move to Africa's copper-cobalt deposits, such that new primary molybdenum production will shift production profiles in the next five or so years to 60% primary and 40% by-product.

Apart from Blue Pearl, Sprott Moly may own Idaho General Mines (GMO US$3.90, US$160m), Moly Mines (A$3.25, A$170m), Mercator Minerals (ML C$4.08, C$291m), Roca Mines (ROK C$2.65, C$174m), among others.

Anticipated short- to medium-term contraction in molybdenum production, allied with a Chinese stainless steel growth forecast of over 30% this year could see molybdenum test 2005 highs of $40/pound, roughly $10 higher than prevailing prices.

Quelle: "Mineweb", 07-03-28

[Firsteven]

Hallo emmischmied und SupermarioWin,

danke für diese entscheidenten Hinweise. Man lernt halt nie aus

Dank eurer Infos habe ich in den insgesamt 44 Seiten der beiden englischsprachigen Schriftstücke nun diesen Passus über den Goodwill nun nicht nur gelesen sondern (hoffentlich) auch richtig verstanden.

Und aus dieser Sicht ist es nur zu logisch, dass Blue Pearl auf dem Papier Verlust ausweisen musste. Wenn allen Verkäufen der übernommenen Lagerbestände bewertungstechnisch Kosten etwa in Höhe des Verkaufspreises gegenüber stehen (also schon deshalb kein Gewinn erzielt werden kann), und zusätzlich die laufenden Kosten des Geschäftsbetriebes anfallen, so kann dies nur mit Verlustausweis enden.

Nun, man sollte immer die positive Seite sehen: Das war eben ein Teil des Preises für die Übernahme (und senkt die Steuerlast).
Und umso drastischer fällt der Unterschied zum Gewinn aus, der mit den Zahlen des 1.Quartales am 10.Mai ausgewiesen werden wird.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Ein User hat sich mit der Frage an mich gewendet, ob ich persönlich mit einer stärkeren Korrektur rechne. Da die Antwort vielleicht auch für andere User interessant sein könnte, stelle ich einen Auszug aus der BM hier ein:

------------------------

Es ist des öfteren zu beobachten, dass vor der angekündigten Verkündung bedeutsamer (positiver) News der Kurs einer Aktie ansteigt, da viele neue Investoren einsteigen. Auf diesen Zug springen gerne auch sehr kurzfristig orientiert Trader auf und verkaufen die Aktie dann wieder, sobald die News heraus ist. Ob dann der Kurs etwas steigt oder etwas sinkt, das hängt davon ab, wie die News vom Markt aufgenommen wird.
Ist die News gut und entspricht den Erwartungen, dann wird der Kurs üblicherweise etwas sinken (das ist leider die verquere Börsenlogik des "sell on good news") aufgrund der Verkäufe der Trader. Ist die News deutlich besser als die Erwartungen, dann könnten so viele neue Anleger beschliessen zu investieren, sodass der Verkauf der Trader aufgefangen wird und sogar der Kurs nach oben geht.

Dass ein kleiner Abverkauf bei Blue Pearl stattfinden könnte, war jedem Leser des Thread bekannt. Es wurde ja über diesen Punkt bereits diskutiert.
Der Inhalt der News über die Jahreszahlen ist nun durchaus auf 2 Arten zu interpretieren. Auf einen allerersten, oberflächlichen und durch wenig Sachkenntnis getrübten Blick sieht man nur, dass das Unternehmen Verlust ausweist.
Nur wer bereit ist, sich etwas näher mit den Zahlen zu befassen, kann erkennen, dass er Aktien von einem richtigen "Goldesel" (manche sprechen auch von einer Gelddruckmaschine) besitzt.
Wie der Papier-Verlust zustande kam und welche Gewinnaussichten sich für das laufende Jahr ergeben, kann im Thread in den letzten Tagen nachgelesen werden.

Nach einem kleinen Abverkauf (etwa 4%) hat sich der Kurs gestern in Kanada schnell wieder etwas erholt und als stabil erwiesen. Die meisten Anleger haben also wohl begriffen, dass der Papierverlust keinerlei Bedeutung hat.

Was wir im Moment in Deutschland erleben ist der typische Abverkauf von Tradern, verstärkt auch noch dadurch, dass ein kleiner Börsenbrief sein sehr kurzfristiges Kursziel erreicht sieht und zum Ausstieg geblasen hat. Wenn alle diese Trader-Lemminge gleichzeitig zur Tür hinaus wollen, dann muss der Kurs kurzfristig sinken. Eine deutliche Erholung ist im Augenblick auch schon wieder feststellbar.

Für den langfristig orientierten Anleger sind diese kleinen Schwankungen ohne Bedeutung. Die vorgelegten Zahlen (Quelle: MD&A vom 26.3.2007 auf www.sedar.com) haben nunmehr bewiesen, wie es mit den laufenden Kosten (durchschnittliche Produktionskosten 6,28 $ pro Pfund - durchschnittlicher Erlös 25,74 $ je Pfund) aussieht. Bei einer geplanten Produktionsmenge von 21 Mio Pfund ergibt sich daraus ganz grob ein Mehrerlös von über 400 Mio US-$. Davon gehen natürlich noch kleinere Kostenanteile (z.B. für Zinsen, Verwaltung usw.) ab, sowie die Ertragsteuern. Der Langfristanleger kann also beruhigt darauf warten, dass der Markt den Kurs der Aktie auf ein faires Niveau anhebt. Das momentane Kursniveau mit einem KGV in der Nähe von 3 ist jedenfalls lachhaft niedrig.

Eine kurzfristige Aussage zu treffen, ist hingegen immer mit großer Ungewissheit verbunden. Ich persönlich erwarte keine stärkere Korrektur sondern eher einige Tage in welchen es mal ein wenig rauf, mal ein wenig runter geht, bevor der Kurs wieder deutlich anzieht.
Falls das Vorliegen eines nunmehr geprüften Jahresabschlußes allerdings die Voraussetzung für den Einstieg von einem (oder mehrerer) größeren Fond war, dann könnte es auch unerwartet schnell weiter nach oben gehen. Oder der Molypreis steigt weiter .....

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

CP say Blue Pearl proposes name change


2007-03-28 07:29 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, March 28, edition that molybdenum miner Blue Pearl Mining is seeking to raise its corporate profile in the United States. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe reports the company expects to adopt the name of the major U.S. company it bought last fall, Thompson Creek Metals. Blue Pearl executives told conference callers that the company will also apply for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange later this year. Blue Pearl acquired the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho last October. The mine has a projected life of 10 more years. The name change is subject to shareholder approval at the annual meeting on May 10. Chief executive officer Kevin Loughrey said the company expects global demand for molybdenum, which is used to harden steel, will remain strong as demand continues to grow at a rate of 4 per cent a year. Blue Pearl shares fell 43 cents to $11.63 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on March 27.

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Hallo Leute,
wo seht Ihr überhaupt ein faires KGV für Blue Pearl? Das kann man im Moment schlecht sagen, oder?!
Ich habe mal das KGV von dem heute hier erwähnten Rio Tinto errechnet. Da habe ich mit den Zahlen vom letzten Jahr (zu sehen auf http://www.finanzen.net/news/news_detail.asp?NewsNr=479853 ) und dem jetzigen Kurs auf ein KGV von 3.85 rausbekommen.
Das ist doch auch überhaupt nicht hoch das KGV oder sehe ich das falsch?
Ich frage bloß weil hier immer KGV\\'s von 5 bis 10 genannt werden.
Also ich persönlich wäre ja für ein KGV von 10 aber ist das realsistisch?
---------------------------------

Hallo Gradesbert,

deine Frage ist eine gute Gelegenheit, meine KGV-Sammlung mal wieder auf neuesten Stand zu bringen. Alle KGVs sind von heute laut Comdirect:

Antofagasta 8,78
BHP Billiton 9,70
Coeur d\'Alene 11,98
Freeport McMoran 11,25
Goldcorp 25,57
Inco 13,46
Phelps Dodge 8,71
Rio Tinto 9,48
Teck Cominco 7,81

Durchschnitt 11,86

Bei dieser bunten Sammlung von Minengesellschaften hat sich ein durchschnittliches KGV von 11,86 ergeben. Insofern bin ich der Ansicht, dass ein KGV von 10 nicht zu hoch gegriffen ist.
Für\'s erste wäre ich aber durchaus schon mal mit dem niedrigsten KGV dieser Sammlung zufrieden, also 7,81. Um zu diesem KGV zu kommen müsste der Kurs der Blue-Pearl-Aktie auf rund 30 CAD steigen. In dieser Größenordnung liegt ja auch das "geheime" Kursziel von Sprott (angeblich 28 CAD).

Nun, die Kanadier sind ja im Moment auf dem Weg dorthin. Schon wieder neues Allzeithoch heute.

Viele Grüsse
Chartex

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Hallo Chartex,
ich habe eben nochmal wegen der KGVs geschaut. Bei Cortalconsors steht bei Rio Tinto eine KGV von 3,12 für 2006. Die anderen habe ich noch nicht gecheckt. Warum kommen denn da so unterschiedliche KGVs zusammen?
Wenn ich wählen müsste, wähle ich das von Comdirect, damit sich Blue Pearl daran orientieren kann.
----------------------------

Hallo Gradesbertt,

nun, dann war deine Rechnung zumindest so etwa richtig .

Ohne die Zahlen von Rio Tinto zu kennen, könnte ich vermuten, dass sich bei Cortalconsors ein Fehler bei den Zahlen eingeschlichen hat.
Bei Onvista habe ich zur Überprüfung folgende Zahlen gefunden:
KGV 2006e 9,78
KGV 2007e 9,79
KGV 2008e 9,97

Wieso Cortalconsors noch das KGV von 2006 verwendet, verstehe ich allerdings nicht. An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt, und da ist das KGV von 2007 schon bald veraltet.

Eine Aktie, die zu einem KGV von nur 3,12 notiert, die gibt es so gut wie nirgends (und ist bei Blue Pearl auch nur dadurch zu erklären, dass der Sprung vom praktisch vermögenslosen Explorer mit Verlusten zum hochprofitablen Produzenten mit 2 (bald 3) Minen und Nummer 4 oder 5 in der Rangliste der Branche einfach Zeit braucht). Umso ruhiger können wir nachts schlafen, da durch diese krasse Unterbewertung die Aktie nach unten sehr gut abgesichert ist. Selbst wenn es mal etwas nach unten gehen sollte, ist die Erholung und ein Weitersteigen auf höheres Niveau vorprogrammiert.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Glückwunsch allen ruhigen Händen zu einem weiteren SK-ATH! Und zur Belohnung noch ein weiteres "Zuckerl" aus mineweb von heute; weiß nicht, ob schon mal gepostet, aber weil\'s halt so schön ist ggfs. noch mal:

Good golly, Ms Moly

Molybdenum is up 1000% in the past five years, and suddenly a $12bn a year market, with a new ETF.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Wednesday , 28 Mar 2007

JOHANNESBURG -
Like nickel and uranium, among others, molybdenum is up 1000% or so in the past five years. The metal, known in the trade and among specialist investors as "moly", and mostly used in steel alloying for hardening and corrosion resistance, is now in a $12bn a year market, but is it still worth a punt?

This week sees the launch of a molybdenum Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) (Bloomberg: MBMOEUOX <Commodity>, "Sprott Moly", run by well-regarded Canadian fund manager Eric Sprott and his team. The objective is to invest up to C$150m in molybdenum equities (75% of the fund) and 25% in the metal itself. Sprott has arranged to buy "moly" from the largest pure play producer, Blue Pearl (BLE, C$12.06, with a C$1.25bn market capitalization).

The molybdenum market is currently running at around 400m pounds a year, and is said to be growing at a minimum of 4% annually. The metal\\'s subscribers describe it as the "energy" metal, given how much it\\'s used in the crude oil and gas business.
Sprott himself subscribes to the "peak oil" school of thought, which holds that global crude oil production is peaking, meaning more drilling for every new unit discovered. Sprott tells investors that a 5,000 foot oil well requires 50 tons of molybdenum-hardened steel to drill; a 15,000 foot well requires a magnificent 1,100 tons. Nearly 80% of all wells drilled today are deeper than 8,000 feet.

As for supply, China (currently 20% of world molybdenum production) is consistently digging out less as small operators increasingly fall foul of new environmental, tariff and quota constraints. Like a number of other metals, molybdenum has historically been dug out as a by-product. About 60% of current global molybdenum production ranks as by-product.
Phelps Dodge, Codelco, Rio Tinto, Grupo Mexico, Antofagasta, BHP Billiton, Xstrata and Anglo American produce molybdenum on the outskirts of copper porphyry operations. Insiders reckon that most of these producers high-graded molybdenum output during the 2005 spike to $40/pound, such that 2007-8 molybdenum production profiles are largely flat.

Big changes are on the way. A secular shift in copper output will see growth move to Africa\\'s copper-cobalt deposits, such that new primary molybdenum production will shift production profiles in the next five or so years to 60% primary and 40% by-product.

Apart from Blue Pearl, Sprott Moly may own Idaho General Mines (GMO US$3.90, US$160m), Moly Mines (A$3.25, A$170m), Mercator Minerals (ML C$4.08, C$291m), Roca Mines (ROK C$2.65, C$174m), among others.

Anticipated short- to medium-term contraction in molybdenum production, allied with a Chinese stainless steel growth forecast of over 30% this year could see molybdenum test 2005 highs of $40/pound, roughly $10 higher than prevailing prices.

Quelle: "Mineweb", 07-03-28

Schönen Abend noch,
sloop

[Firsteven]

von videomart:


Klick!!!

Das ist der Grund für den Kursanstieg!
Nicht die Empfehlung von GMP!


Monday March 26, 6:56 PM
China Molybdenum starts pre-marketing $700 mln IPO

HONG KONG, March 26 (Reuters) - China Molybdenum Co. Ltd., the country\'s top producer of the minor metal used in steel production, began pre-marketing a $700 million Hong Kong initial public offering on Monday, sources familiar with the deal said.

ADVERTISEMENT


The government-controlled company, formerly known as Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum, was the world\'s third-largest molybdenum producer in 2005.

It plans to sell 1.083 billion new shares, or 22.73 percent of its enlarged share capital, in an offering handled by Morgan Stanley and UBS , the sources said.

The deal is set to be priced after April 19.

[Firsteven]

daher hat vermutlich die ganze Aktion solange gedauert.
Die haben Luoyang Luanchuan nochmal schnell leicht umfirmiert in CHINA Molybdenum - hört sich ja auch besser an.

Und siehe da - UBS sitzt auch wieder im Boot. Gut für uns - dann werden von dort sicher auch noch höhere Kursziele kommen.
Die können China Moly nicht mit einem KGV von 10-15 platzieren
und Empfehlungen bei Blue Pearl auf Basis von KGVs von 3-5 aussprechen. Das passt nicht.

Voraussichtlicher Termin für den 1. Handelstag von China Moly:
19.04.2007!

Alles spielt sich im April ab.
Sprott wird sehr wahrscheinlich noch im April mit seinem ETF starten.
Blue Pearl gibt wahrscheinlich noch ein paar sehr gute News raus - insbesondere die Resourcenschätzung für Davidson.
Der Moly Preis wird im April weiter Druck von China bekommen - und dürfte somit weiter steigen.

Der April dürfte richtig spannend werden. Ich denke das ist derzeit noch ein Vorgeschmack.

Hat jemand etwas von dem Analystenmeeting von heute gehört? Da könnten die nächsten Tage auch noch Überraschungen kommen! Wer läßt sich eine Aktie mit einem KGV von 3 durch die Finger gleiten.
Es ist weiterhin sehr viel Luft nach oben.

Meine persönliche Einschätzung für Ende April/Anfang Mai:
Mind. 15-20 CAD (eher 20 CAD als 15)

Moly wird gerade entdeckt. Für Moly spricht auch ganz klar folgende Meldung im Zusammenhang mit China Moly:


Chinese & Saudi Billionaires Investing in Molybdenum

Das war eigentlich mit die beste Nachricht der letzten Tage! So beginnt eine langfristige Aufwärtsbewegung. Hier steigen jetzt die richtigen Großen ein (wie Ian immer sagt: the big boys).
Fast täglich kommen derzeit Berichte über Moly und Moly-Aktien auf BNN. Soviele Berichte wie die letzten Tage gab es in den letzten Monaten zu Moly nicht. Und die User-Zahlen bei
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/…
steigen jeden Tag mehr an.

Ganz klar: Nickel, Uran und Moly sind die 3 gefragtesten Rohstoffe derzeit!

[Firsteven]

As informative and intelligent as it can get
Posted By: rolfoto
Post Time: 3/28/2007 18:57

Interview with Ian MacDonald - auf BNN vom 27.03.2007!!

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/?tf=robtv/video/asx/r…


>> Andrew: We're back with "after hours." Even though blue pearl mining has been the best performing stock on the T.S.X. Over the past year, the company has never actually turned a profit. For a closer look at its q4 earnings and why blue pearl plans to change its name we turn to the chairman and C.E.O. Ian macdonald. Ian, it's great to have you here. Thanks very much. >> Ian mcdonald: Nice to be here.
>> Andrew: Hot play on molybdenum. Why is the world so crazy for molybdenum right now?
>> Ian mcdonald: Well, I don't know all the reasons it does seem to have certainly be in the news a lot lately with eric sprott starting the molybdenum participation fund and i think investors searching for the next story. Molybdenum is a commodity even though it's what they call a noble metal or a base metal the price is really determined on the supply and demand. There's no forward market for it. >> Andrew: Its main use is making steel harder and more durable?
>> Ian mcdonald: It makes steel less corrosive. It makes it stronger in small quantities changing the molecular structure the grain strength and makes it more ductile expand and contract easier.
>> Andrew: Why is demand for moly so strong right now?
>> Ian mcdonald: Well, it's been growing about 4% a year for a number of decades was projected to continue. It's about 6% last year almost 20% in china. It's the high end steel. Stainless steel market. In other words, in say the developing world they want to have things that that we have. You need molybdenum it's not in knives and forks it's in the applications such as in the food industry the drug industry the oil and gas industry. >> Andrew: They use it for pipelines.
>> Ian mcdonald: Cars use almost a pound per vehicle.
>> Andrew: You just took over a company called thompson creek in idaho last year. That deal was worth more than $500 million. Where are your two mines are they producing right now?
>> Ian mcdonald: The thompson creek mine which is in idaho been in production for 24 years. And adaco mine is in british columbia which we own 75% it has been in production for 42 years.
>> Andrew: You are still losing money if the moly market is so hot how come you showed a q4 loss? >> Ian mcdonald: Our cash flow generation i think was tremendous. When we bought that company there was inventory of $70.8 million pounds of molybdenum in inventory everywhere from the hall truck right on the palette ready to be shipped to a customer. It's an accounting rule we had to value that so the cost was down around well under $10. The price at the time we bought the company was in the mid-20s. So we had to take and I'm not the person to explain why we have to do this other than it's a accounting rule as per the cost of the company $100 million hit. So $70 million was taken in q4. 30 will be taken in first quarter this year. Up for back that paper or noncash number out we actually made a lot of money. >> Pat: And your cash flow is just fine. You're a pure play producing a good chunk of the world's pure play molybdenum it's also produced as a by-product of copper. Specialized moly mine. How is that different from a regular-base metal mine?
>> Ian mcdonald: Only in the fact that it only produces molybdenum. Very rarely does molybdenum primary mine produce anything else. The 60% of molybdenum production does come as by-product from copper mines. So 40% is produced as primary mines. I think there's four mines in the americas primary mines. We own two of them. >> Andrew: I hear some expression roasting molybdenum. What does that mean. You don't seem to hear it about base metals so much?
>> Ian mcdonald: They call it smelting with nickel they make a mat concentrate then they have to or a aluminum they have to do something that requires a lot of energy. With molybdenum we call it roasting. You actually smelting it. We call our roaster metallurgical facility. What you do is you take the sulfides out of it and produce an oxide it's a by-product we produce 200 tons of sul fouric acid a day as a by-product. >> Andrew: What do you do with that?
>> Ian mcdonald: We sell it. Unfortunately, sudbury produces so much that the price is only about $35 a ton.
>> Andrew: Not making too much on that.
>> Ian mcdonald: No.
>> Andrew: You're going for a listing on new york stock exchange are you dreading all the extra paperwork the sarbanes-oxley?
>> Ian mcdonald: The reality is we have to go through it anyway we might as well get some of the benefits. Since we're doing it anyway our shareholders I think will benefit greatly with the more exposure down in the united states. We hope to list down there. They haven't agreed to list us. I think we meet the qualification we still have to make the application. >> Andrew: You have been english mentioned as a big takeout candidate. Have you been approached?
>> Ian mcdonald: We don't discuss that but that's not something we're focusing on. We're focusing on growing the company and getting our debt paid down getting our new reserves and resources. Because they were done in moly was at a much lower price at these two mines. Also bringing our davidson deposit on stream. We should have that well under construction here by next year.
>> Andrew: Is there any danger we could see a big flood of molybdenum onto the market depressing prices? >> Ian mcdonald: In today's day and age it takes at least five years I think for a new mine to go from the feasibility and through permitting, financing, construction. So there's a tremendous barrier to entry for any new molybdenum green field project because there's no place to forward sell molybdenum. So the financing becomes, very, very difficult for a junior company.
>> Andrew: That's interesting. You can with copper and or other widely traded base metals but there's no actual futures market. Aealthough the L.M.E. Did announce yesterday they were going to try to call a futures market in molybdenum and cobalt for 2008. >> Andrew: We only have a few seconds we're seeing yet another takeover lionore another canadian mining company. Are you sad do you think it's regrettable we're seeing the hollowing out of our mining sector?
>> Ian mcdonald: Look, I think that's the kind of we're in business that's what can happen.
>> Andrew: It's a global game i guess.
>> Ian mcdonald: Yeah, that's right.
>> Andrew: Ian macdonald, thanks very much indeed.

[Firsteven]

ein paar interessante Links:


http://www.cnq.ca/Page.asp?PageID=2013&AA_RecordID=91
Symbol: RMKL
Stock Exchange -
Canadian Trading & Quotation System Inc. (CNQ.ca)


http://www.investorshub.com/boards/quotes.asp?ticker=rmkmf


http://tinyurl.com/mk96r

Roxmark Mines - RMKMF -
http://new.stockwatch.com/swnet/utilit/utilit_snapsh_result.…



http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RMKMF.PK

Got Roxmark - DD...
http://www.roxmark.com





Welcome to Roxmark forum
join and enjoy -
do tell us your opinions -
ask your questions ...
Tia. Brgds.
Bob





Money Masters: Federal Reserve History part 1 of 3

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8442305921010099392&…

Money Masters: Federal Reserve History part 2 of 3

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5020331178524208549&…

Money Masters: Federal Reserve History part 3 of 3

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6666372716915416357&…


http://www.goldrush21.com/








General Rules:
All sincere comments and opinions concerning this company
are welcome -
No bashing or mindless hype will be allowed -
Lively discussions are premitted as long as they
remain non-personal -
Name calling is not going to be allowed -

Moderator Thoughts:
Remember invest at your own risk -
based on your own DD and only at your risk tolerance level -

Those who make peaceful REVOLUTION impossible will
make violent REVOLUTION inevitable.
- John F. Kennedy

Shut Down The Federal Reserve: Save America!
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/AFTF_P_1/
†With God all things are possible†
by: todd h

ROB-TV in exposing the Gold price suppression scheme -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbPetrK_6Lc&mode=related&sear…

Join GATA -
http://www.GATA.org.
Gold Show -
2007 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention and Exhibition Centre
Sunday and Monday, January 21 and 22, 2007

http://www.cambridgeconferences.com/ch_jan2007.html


http://www.kereport.com/videos/Analyzing4.shtml


http://www.sim.org/
http://www.vatican.va
http://tinyurl.com/365wag

The Fiat Money System -
Dr. Bill Veith in studio w/ Alex Jones -
http://tinyurl.com/y3gdzh

HON. RON PAUL OF TEXAS -
Before the U.S. House of Representatives -
The End of Dollar Hegemony -
http://tinyurl.com/uq9kf

[Firsteven]

genialer Beitrag von therefore aus dem Hauptthread:

Stimme dir da voll zu!!!



Hallo Leute,

unsere Perle macht wieder einmal genau das Gegenteil von dem, was erwartet wurde.

Viele, auch RSR, haben auf einen Rücksetzer bis auf ca, 10 CAD gesetzt. Da gestern wieder reichlich Anleger short gegangen sind, gehe ich davon aus, dass heute der bestand an Short Aktien wieder auf über 4 Mio. Aktien angestiegen ist.

Der "Verlust in 2006" schien den Leuten gestern auch in die Karten zu spielen. Heute hat sich dann allerdings, zum Leidwesen der Shorties, der Verstand wieder durchgesetzt. Die Steuerersparnis durch das angewande Modell ist enorm und hat die Abzahlung des Kredites massiv erleichtert. Die Leute um Ian McDonald sind halt überall Profis. Respekt.

Eine Aktie, die für 2008 mit einem KGV von 1 bis 3, abhängig vom Molypreis, bewertet werden muss, kann momentan noch zu Schnäppchenpreisen eingekauft werden.

Was wird jetzt passieren?

Der Sprott-Fond hat sich scheinbar schon von 75 Mio. CAD bis auf 150 Mio. CAD erhöht. Bis der FOND startet, werden wir bestimmt auf über 300 Mio. CAD angekommen sein.

25% will man in physisches Moly investieren. Macht mindestens 75 Mio. CAD. Gehen wir einmal davon aus, dass man bei BluePearl Teile des Lagerbestandes kaufen wird. 75 Mio. CAD ergibt ca, 65 Mio. USD. Heißt, dass man hier 2 Mio. IB zu einem Freundschaftspreis von 27 USD erwerben wird. Vielleicht bis dahin auch schon über 30$?

Heißt: BluePearl wird im zweiten Quartal bei kosten von 7$ pro IB und einem Steuersatz von 30% ca, Mehreinnahmen von 30 MIo. USD haben.

Wenn der Fond dann bis zum Ende des zweiten Quartals auf 600 Mio. CAD angesteigen ist, dann hat man Mehreinnahmen von 60 Mio. USD.

Daher bin ich mir recht sicher, dass der komplette Kreditbetrag noch im laufenden Jahr 2007 abbezahlt wird.

Sollte Sojitz sich noch an Davidson beteiligen wollen, dann kann der Kreditbetrag eventuell schon im dritten Quartal komplett getilgt werden. Was dies bei einem steigenden Molypreis heisst, dass kann sich jeder selber ausrechnen.

Ich wiederspreche daher RSR, mit dieser Aktie sollte man unter keinen Umständen traden. Der Kurs kommt eventuell für eine längere Zeit nicht mehr zurück.

Tritt dieses mögliche Szenario jetzt ein, dann erfolgt in Kürze auch noch ein Short squeeze out. Aber Selbst danach muss der Kurs der Aktie nicht mehr zurückkommen. Die Unterbewertung der Aktie ist ja dann lediglich etwas geringer geworden, aber lange noch nicht abgebaut, denn die 28 CAD. von Sprott sind mit Sicherheit nicht sein von ihm wirklich erwartetes Kursziel. Der Mann will die anderen Marktteilnehmer mit dem tatsächlich von ihm erwarteten Ziel noch nicht überfordern.

Nach den Ressourcenstudien für die drei Minen werden dann so langsam die Ziele angehoben werden. mand arf den Markt nicht überfordern, amn wird dann unglaubwürdig.

Den positiven Kurseffekt, wenn der neue Fond riesige Mengen BluePearl Aktien kauft, sollte man ebenfalls nicht vergessen.

Scheinbar haben die RSR-Leute ihre eigenen Berichte nicht verstanden. Sonst hätte man heute den Unsinn mit der Tradempfehlung nicht in den Markt gegeben.

Nach der Tradingempfehlung ist man dann scheinbar zu Verstand gekommen, oder die Schicht hat gewechselt, und man hat die neuen Kursempfehlungen von GMP und UBS per SMS an die Abonnenten gegeben.
Eventuell war man auch von dem steigenden Kurs überrascht worden, und man wollte die Blamage, die man sich selber eingebrockt hatte, noch gering halten.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Der Wust von Daten...

Adanac liefertv eine Resourcenberechnung für eine Untergrundmine auf basis von kosten von 75$/Tonne.

Wie hoch sind die kalkulierten Miningcosten von Davidson, die von BLE vorab angesetzt wurden?
Nur so um vergleichen zu können.
Weiß das jemand?
------------------------------------

Hallo Rudi,

der Abbau von Moly unter Tage ist im Verhältnis ziemlich kostenaufwendig. Wo eine Open-Pit-Mine mit einer Konzentration von 0,06% bei sonst günstiger Kostenstruktur noch ganz profitabel betrieben werden kann, ist für bergmänischen Abbau eine Mindestkonzentration von 0,1% wünschenswert.
Endako als Open Pit hat z.B. eine Konzentration im Bereich von 0,06% (siehe Bild 20 der Präsentation vom 19.2.2007 (www.bluepearl.ca)) und liefert sehr gute finanzielle Ergebnisse.
Der bergmänische Abbau hingegen in Davidson ist pro Tonne gefördertes Erz im Verhältniss zunächst einmal sehr teuer (genaue Zahlen habe ich leider nicht parat). Mehr als ausgeglichen wird dies dadurch, dass in Davidson Erz mit einem Gehalt von 0,36% - 0,38% gefördert werden soll (Quelle: Präsentation (Tondokument) vom 21.11.2006 www.bluepearl.ca). Bevorzugt soll der Erzkörper mit 0,55% Konzentration abgebaut werden.
In den Bohrergebnissen sind z.B. Strecken von 122m und 0,67%, und 15,3m mit dem fast unglaublichen Wert von 1,92% aufgelistet (SEDAR-File vom 15.6.2006).

Es soll also Erz abgebaut werden, das eine 9-fach höhere Konzentration aufweist als dies in Endako der Fall ist. Somit können auch die Kosten pro Tonne des abgebauten Erzes 9 Mal höher sein, ohne dass bei der Endabrechnung die Kosten pro Pfund Moly höher sind.

Ian McDonald hat für Davidson einen Betrag von 5 US-Dollar pro Pfund Moly als Produktionskosten geschätzt. Genauere Werte kann erst eine Berechnung im Rahmen der Feasibility-Studie liefern.

Für die Kosten pro Tonne Gestein kann ich nur mit einer ganz groben Hilfskonstruktion auf einen Wert kommen:
In der Tonne Erz soll ein Molywert (Verkaufspreis vom Februar) von etwa 200 US-$ vorhanden sein (Quelle: Präsentation vom 8.2.2007 www.bluepearl.ca)
Bei 24,75 US-$ pro Pfund wären dies etwa 8 Pfund pro Tonne. Bei Produktionskosten von 5 US-$ pro Pfund ergäben sich Gesamtkosten von 40 US-$ pro Tonne. Darin ist aber auch der Transport nach Endako, die Bearbeitung im Konzentrator und das Rösten bereits enthalten.
Einmal unterstellt, diese Rechnung wäre richtig, dann könnte der reine Abbau vielleicht 30 US-$ pro Pfund kosten.

Ich hoffe, diese Zahlen helfen dir weiter.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[The_Newbie]

China Molybdenum to launch IPO in HK next month
(www.chinamining.org)
Updated: 2007-03-29 13:36
Counter:2

China's 3 largest molybdenum miner China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. plans to launch its initial public offering (IPO) on April 26 in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, market source said.

It plans to issue 1.083 billion shares in HK for 300-700 million US dollars (about 3.9-5.46 billion HK dollars). The newly-issued shares account for 22.73 percent of the expanded capitalization. Besides, it will issue an additional 10 million shares to deposit in social security fund.


China Molybdenum will carry out a formal roadshow as of April 4 and public offering is primarily set to start on April 16.


The underwriting syndicate predicts that China Molybdenum will earn at least 2.2 billion yuan in 2007, soaring 45 percent from the revenue of 1.515 billion yuan in 2006. The P/E ratio is to range between 15-16 times. The money raised may be used for production expansion, developing tungsten production and acquisitions.


China International Capital Corp (CICC), one of the underwriters, said in a research report that China Molybdenum will maintain strong growth momentum in 2007 and 2008 with its net profit surging 53.5 percent and 35 percent year on year respectively to 2.33 billion yuan and 3.15 billion yuan. The revenue is expected to leap by 45.1 percent to a record 5.55 billion yuan in 2007 and jump a further 21.6 percent year on year in 2008 to 6.75 billion yuan.


CICC forecast that the main driving forces for the company may come from the operation of a tungsten recycling plant in 2008, rising price of tungsten due to large demand, and the continuous growth of tungsten output.


Market source said that there are a number of magnates having shown interest in subscribing shares of the company. Even Baosteel, the biggest client of the company, is willing to buy the share. It is learned that China Molybdenum plans to introduce no more than five strategic investors this time.


China Molybdenum has the world's biggest molybdenum mine with a proved reserve of 2.06 million tons. It produces a daily 20,000 tons of nonferrous metals including molybdenum and tungsten.


Besides China Molybdenum, the mainland's biggest molybdenum producer Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. is also brewing its IPO launch in Hong Kong to raise some 1 billion US dollars (about 7.8 billion HK dollars). Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch and NBS may be the sponsors of the offering.

[mgoliat]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.553.892 von Firsteven am 29.03.07 06:29:02

hat sich da ein >Schreibfehler eingeschlichen???
"dann könnte der reine Abbau vielleicht 30$ pro Pfund kosten??
Ist hier nicht gemeint pro Tonne,nach den vorherigen Ausführungen logischer,oder mache ich hier einen Denkfehler???

[Gradesbertt]

Ich ahbe eben bei Stockhouse im Adanac-Threat einen etwas kritischeren Text zu der Genehmigung für die Davidson Mine entdeckt. Da gibt es wohl Gegner gegen das Projekt. Aber wo gibt es die nicht, wenn was neues geplant ist? Also nicht gleich auf mich schimpfen, ich bin von Blue nämlich überzueugt. Man sollte ja alle Möglichkeiten beleuchten.




Molybdenum Mine Facing Rough Ride
Investor warns CEO of opposition in Smithers:
The Province; with files from Canadian Press
Published: Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Toronto-based Blue Pearl Mining, the world's biggest publicly traded molybdenum producer, may face a challenge in developing a mining property near Smithers.

Blue Pearl CEO Kevin Loughrey expressed optimism yesterday during an analysts' conference call that the Davidson project will receive environmental approval.

But a local investor said the "left-wing council" in the area opposes the project. "I'm not sure I hold your optimism for how easy your permitting process is going to be," the investor told Loughrey.

"Some of us who do hold stock up here, who aren't anti-mining, that's the feeling we're getting about this project, that it's not going to be as smooth as you seem to say."
Loughrey said the company is confident it can work out the issues being raised by the community. "We'll listen to the community and, obviously, do what we can to allay any concerns they have," he said.

The company is planning to construct a new bypass road in response to some residents who opposed the location of the road that had been planned initially, Loughrey said.

A feasibility study on the Davidson project is expected to be completed in the second quarter. Blue Pearl told analysts it is seeking to raise its corporate profile in the U.S.

Blue Pearl expects to adopt the name of the major U.S. company it bought last fall, Thompson Creek Metals, and will apply for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange.

Blue Pearl acquired the Thompson Creek mine in Idaho last October. The name change is subject to shareholder approval at the annual meeting May 10. "Blue Pearl has been a very successful name for this company obviously and it has prospered under that name," Loughrey said.

"However, in terms of all of our customers and most of our employees, the communities in which we operate and the molybdenum industry generally -- and the customers who buy from our customers -- the name Thompson Creek is the name that's associated with our products, and we believe it's going to be in the best interest of the company and the shareholders. "

Wayne Cheveldayoff, Blue Pearl's director of investor relations, said the U.S. stock listing is meant to appeal to a broader range of investors in the U.S.

Loughrey said global demand for moly, which is used to harden steel, should remain strong as demand continues to grow at a rate of four per cent per year.

Blue Pearl expects to produce 21 million pounds in 2007 and 27 million pounds the year after from the Thompson Creek mine and its Endako mine at Fraser Lake, B.C. Endako has an estimated seven-year mine life based on proven and probable mineral reserves.

Loughrey said a re-evaluation of Blue Pearl's resources and reserves is under way, using higher molybdenum prices in calculations, to reflect the current market.

The company posted a 2006 loss of $20.6 million US, or 36 cents per diluted share. A year earlier, when Blue Pearl was still in development and before the Thompson Creek Metals purchase, the 2005 loss was $4.1 million, or 13 cents per share.

Production costs from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $6.28 a pound, while selling prices averaged $25.74 per pound.

[sloopjohn]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.558.713 von Gradesbertt am 29.03.07 12:19:18

Hi Gradesbertt,

das Thema hatten wir heute morgen schon im Haupthread. (Cuba-Libre 08.25:03 h; P. Nr. 98437) Siehe dazu auch mein nachfolgendes Posting:

#98563 von sloopjohn 29.03.07 09:32:26 Beitrag Nr.: 28.555.421 Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben
Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 28555084 von Videomart am 29.03.07 09:14:45

Guten morgen,ehe sich jetzt eventuell hier einer verrückt machen lässt wg. diesem "Province"-Blättchen - das ist doch (journalistisch betrachtet) bester Blöd-Zeitungs-Stil. Man nehme den unveränderten Inhalt des Canadian Press Artikels mit dem chronologischen Ablauf des conference calls, in dem das statement eines einzelnen Privatinvestors eine lediglich marginale Rolle spielte (und im übrigen von K.L. umfassend beantwortet wurde), versehe das Ganze mit einer für die lokale Leserschaft versehenen reißerischen Übersicht ("Molybdenum mine facing rough ride/Investor warns CEO of opposition in Smithers") in fetten Lettern und fertig ist der auflagensteigernde "Hammerartikel". Info-Gehalt: = Null.Ich bin ausgewiesenermaßen der Letzte, der hier leichtfertig umweltspezifische Problematiken verdrängen oder wegdiskutieren will, aber das hier ist einfach zu billig.

Schönen Tag @all und keep
sloop


und das von videomart:

#98547 von Videomart 29.03.07 09:14:45 Beitrag Nr.: 28.555.084 Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben
Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 28554397 von Cuba_Libre am 29.03.07 08:25:03

"Guten Morgen @ All!
Die Oppositionsbewegungen von Anrainern gegen das Davidson-Projekt existiert schon seit Monaten und war auch bei dem Vorort-Termin von BPM ein Thema.Inwiefern die Verzögerungen der FS-Studie auch damit zusammenhängen, ist nicht in Erfahrung zu bringen.Laut Informationen aus dem stockhouse-board beabsichtigt Blue PearlMining große Summen in die Umweltverträglichkeit des Projektes zu investieren. So soll z.B.der LKW-Verkehr im gesamten Umfeld von Smithers um nicht mehr als 10% anwachsen.Die Beladung der LKW soll aus Umweltgründen innerhalb der Mine erfolgen.Der Schutz des Grundwassers soll sehr gewissenhaft betrieben werden, usw.Eine größere Gefahr für das Projekt stellen die Oppositionellen nach Meinung der stockhouse-Kommentare nicht dar; es wird im schlimmsten Falle zu Verzögerungen kommen..."

Beste Grüße
sloop

[schnucksche]

Globe says analyst sees debt-free Blue Pearl by 2009


2007-03-29 06:56 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, March 29, edition that molybdenum prices will likely remain strong for the next couple of years. The Globe's Leonard Zehr writes in the Tip Sheet column that strong demand for steel and production problems in China are making the base metal precious. Thus, UBS analyst Brian MacArthur predicts that molybdenum miner Blue Pearl Mining will be free of its debt by the end of 2009. Blue Pearl had $334-million (U.S.) in long-term debt at the end of 2006, following its acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals of Colorado. The transaction turned Blue Pearl into a molybdenum major. Earlier this week, the company unveiled a 2006 loss. Mr. MacArthur says the loss is not indicative of future results because they reflected only 67 days of operations of the combined entity. He writes that applying a 10-per-cent discount to the average of three multiples for 2008 gives shares of Blue Pearl a blended target price of $13.25, up from $11. The stock jumped 58 cents or 5 per cent to $12.21 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on March 28. Blue Pearl is up 24 per cent so far this year and has soared more than 300 per cent in the past 12 months.

[schnucksche]

FP says Blue Pearl shrugs off Q1 loss


2007-03-29 09:08 ET - In the News

The Financial Post reports in its Thursday, March 29, edition that Blue Pearl Mining, one of the largest publicly traded molybdenum producers in the world, incurred a first-quarter loss. The Post's Jonathan Ratner writes in the Trading Desk column, however, that investors and analysts are taking the loss in stride. Blue Pearl says the loss was primarily due to its expensive acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals last fall. Bleu Pearl plans to change its name to Thompson Creek Metals in May, then list on the New York Stock Exchange for more exposure. Surging prices for molybdenum have helped the company become one of the best performers on the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index in the past year. It has climbed from $5.58 in October, 2006, to close at $12.21 on March 28. UBS analyst Brian MacArthur says the first-quarter loss of 36 U.S. cents a share does not reflect the future prospects of the company. The analyst has a buy rating on the stock. He also has a share price target of $13.25.

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Ab 7 Min. u. 50 Sec.

Thursday, March 29, 2007 7:00 PM ET
Market Call Tonight
Canadian and U.S. Large Caps
Ian Nakamoto, director of research, MacDougall, MacDougall and MacTier Inc.


Recommendation: H O L D

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. BLE-T Molybdenum is really up to the Chinese, as it looks like they'll be putting in an export tax. That will create a very tight supply. Outlook is quite good here.

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Der Wust von Daten...

Adanac liefertv eine Resourcenberechnung für eine Untergrundmine auf basis von kosten von 75$/Tonne.

Wie hoch sind die kalkulierten Miningcosten von Davidson, die von BLE vorab angesetzt wurden?
Nur so um vergleichen zu können.
Weiß das jemand?
------------------------------------

Hallo Rudi,

der Abbau von Moly unter Tage ist im Verhältnis ziemlich kostenaufwendig. Wo eine Open-Pit-Mine mit einer Konzentration von 0,06% bei sonst günstiger Kostenstruktur noch ganz profitabel betrieben werden kann, ist für bergmänischen Abbau eine Mindestkonzentration von 0,1% wünschenswert.
Endako als Open Pit hat z.B. eine Konzentration im Bereich von 0,06% (siehe Bild 20 der Präsentation vom 19.2.2007 (www.bluepearl.ca)) und liefert sehr gute finanzielle Ergebnisse.
Der bergmänische Abbau hingegen in Davidson ist pro Tonne gefördertes Erz im Verhältniss zunächst einmal sehr teuer (genaue Zahlen habe ich leider nicht parat). Mehr als ausgeglichen wird dies dadurch, dass in Davidson Erz mit einem Gehalt von 0,36% - 0,38% gefördert werden soll (Quelle: Präsentation (Tondokument) vom 21.11.2006 www.bluepearl.ca). Bevorzugt soll der Erzkörper mit 0,55% Konzentration abgebaut werden.
In den Bohrergebnissen sind z.B. Strecken von 122m und 0,67%, und 15,3m mit dem fast unglaublichen Wert von 1,92% aufgelistet (SEDAR-File vom 15.6.2006).

Es soll also Erz abgebaut werden, das eine 9-fach höhere Konzentration aufweist als dies in Endako der Fall ist. Somit können auch die Kosten pro Tonne des abgebauten Erzes 9 Mal höher sein, ohne dass bei der Endabrechnung die Kosten pro Pfund Moly höher sind.

Ian McDonald hat für Davidson einen Betrag von 5 US-Dollar pro Pfund Moly als Produktionskosten geschätzt. Genauere Werte kann erst eine Berechnung im Rahmen der Feasibility-Studie liefern.

Für die Kosten pro Tonne Gestein kann ich nur mit einer ganz groben Hilfskonstruktion auf einen Wert kommen:
In der Tonne Erz soll ein Molywert (Verkaufspreis vom Februar) von etwa 200 US-$ vorhanden sein (Quelle: Präsentation vom 8.2.2007 www.bluepearl.ca)
Bei 24,75 US-$ pro Pfund wären dies etwa 8 Pfund pro Tonne. Bei Produktionskosten von 5 US-$ pro Pfund ergäben sich Gesamtkosten von 40 US-$ pro Tonne. Darin ist aber auch der Transport nach Endako, die Bearbeitung im Konzentrator und das Rösten bereits enthalten.
Einmal unterstellt, diese Rechnung wäre richtig, dann könnte der reine Abbau vielleicht 30 US-$ pro Pfund kosten.

Ich hoffe, diese Zahlen helfen dir weiter.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

China Molybdenum to launch IPO in HK next month
(www.chinamining.org)
Updated: 2007-03-29 13:36
Counter:2

China\'s 3 largest molybdenum miner China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. plans to launch its initial public offering (IPO) on April 26 in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, market source said.

It plans to issue 1.083 billion shares in HK for 300-700 million US dollars (about 3.9-5.46 billion HK dollars). The newly-issued shares account for 22.73 percent of the expanded capitalization. Besides, it will issue an additional 10 million shares to deposit in social security fund.


China Molybdenum will carry out a formal roadshow as of April 4 and public offering is primarily set to start on April 16.

The underwriting syndicate predicts that China Molybdenum will earn at least 2.2 billion yuan in 2007, soaring 45 percent from the revenue of 1.515 billion yuan in 2006. The P/E ratio is to range between 15-16 times. The money raised may be used for production expansion, developing tungsten production and acquisitions.


China International Capital Corp (CICC), one of the underwriters, said in a research report that China Molybdenum will maintain strong growth momentum in 2007 and 2008 with its net profit surging 53.5 percent and 35 percent year on year respectively to 2.33 billion yuan and 3.15 billion yuan. The revenue is expected to leap by 45.1 percent to a record 5.55 billion yuan in 2007 and jump a further 21.6 percent year on year in 2008 to 6.75 billion yuan.


CICC forecast that the main driving forces for the company may come from the operation of a tungsten recycling plant in 2008, rising price of tungsten due to large demand, and the continuous growth of tungsten output.


Market source said that there are a number of magnates having shown interest in subscribing shares of the company. Even Baosteel, the biggest client of the company, is willing to buy the share. It is learned that China Molybdenum plans to introduce no more than five strategic investors this time.


China Molybdenum has the world\'s biggest molybdenum mine with a proved reserve of 2.06 million tons. It produces a daily 20,000 tons of nonferrous metals including molybdenum and tungsten.


Besides China Molybdenum, the mainland\'s biggest molybdenum producer Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. is also brewing its IPO launch in Hong Kong to raise some 1 billion US dollars (about 7.8 billion HK dollars). Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch and NBS may be the sponsors of the offering.

[Firsteven]

World's Hottest Moly Stocks!!!!!
Snapshot: ARU BLE CBS CLL CVQ PLE RSG SLT TAH VIT



Now, anticipation is building for news on a quota system from China, which could soon release a list of the molybdenum producers it will allow to export. Fewer than 30 names are expected, a Chinese industry group said, and exports could fall by 10 percent.

"It comes down to the Chinese," said Ian Nakamoto, director of research at MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier. "They could make or break the market."

About 400 million pounds of molybdenum were produced last year, with tight supplies making the market sensitive to supply disruptions and contributing to price pressures.

China is a major supplier of the metal, used primarily as a hardening agent in the production of stainless steel. It contributed about 17 percent of the world supply in 2006 and topped the world in reserves, UBS said in a report.

Now the problem is what companies is China going to select? Some, if not all of these will be picked up by the chinese:

Symb Company Last Chg Chg %
BLE.TO Blue Pearl Mining Ltd 12.18 +0.19 +1.58
MOL.TO Moly Mines Ltd 3.02 +0.14 +4.86
ROK.V Roca Mines Inc 2.9 +0.20 +7.41
AUA.V Adanac Molybdenum Corp 2.32 +0.20 +9.43
RIO.AX Rio Tinto Ltd $78.81 +0.63 +0.81
ANTO.L Antofagasta 517.75p +7.00 +1.37


About the Writer
Username:
ResourceBoom
Location:
ON Canada

View my complete profile

[Neono]

Guten Morgen
Der Kursanstieg wird von starken Gerüchten, dass Blue Pearl übernommen werden soll, getrieben.

Sollte es so kommen ---> herzlichen Glückwunsch!

Wenn nicht.... sorry, aber ich dachte es sollte jeder wissen.

Neono

[chris3011]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.238 von Neono am 31.03.07 09:24:49

[eifelcash]

Hi neono,

bitte gib deine Quellen bekannt sonst komm ioch mal rüber in deinen Kobex thread und poste dort mal ein paar Gerüchte.....

z.B. warum es nie zur Produktion kommen wird bei Euch...

[Neono]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.644 von eifelcash am 31.03.07 10:17:28

Blablabla....

Neono

[Neono]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.644 von eifelcash am 31.03.07 10:17:28

Vielleicht solltest du Dir mal den Schaum vom Mund wischen und nachdenken, ob das positive oder negative Auswirkungen auf den Kurs von BP haben könnte. Mir hat es gereicht, um 1200 Stk zu kaufen. Was du machst ist mir wurscht, aber suggerier den Leuten hier nicht, dass dies negativ gemeint sin könnte

Die Information kam von einer üblich sehr zuverlässigen Quelle.

Neono

[eifelcash]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.764 von Neono am 31.03.07 10:42:40

Egal ob positiver oder negativer Natur.....

wenn hier jemand auftaucht und Gerüchte in die Welt setzt, frage ich nach der Quelle.

Also bitte, wer sagt das???

[Neono]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.780 von eifelcash am 31.03.07 10:46:31

Fragen darfst du ja, aber eine Antwort wirst du nicht kriegen, denn es geht Dich rein gar nichts an

Wenn sie übernommen wird ist das sicher verdientes Geld und wenn nicht.... BP kann man mit S/L so absichern, dass man kaum was verliert. Die Chancen sind grösser, als die Risiken.

Was DU mit der Info machst überlasse ich Dir und es bleibt jedem anderen auch selbst überlassen was er damit anfängt.

Neono

[Cuba_Libre]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.821 von Neono am 31.03.07 10:57:00

meister, mußt du diesen thread hier mit deinen gerüchen...ääääh...gerüchten zuspammen?

[Neono]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.904 von Cuba_Libre am 31.03.07 11:16:30

Was habt ihr eigentlich für ein Problem?

Es ist eine Information, die ihr mit in eure Entscheidungen einbeziehen könnt, oder nicht. Die tut keinem weh und ist nicht beleidigend. Davon lebt eine Community.

....aber ich dachte es sollte jeder wissen.

Sollte man natürlich short sein, dann geht einem jetzt natürlich mächtig die Düse....

Anstatt auf mir rumzuhacken, solltet ihr vielleicht mal dazu übergehen, und deshalb der Thread, über einen angemessenen Preis nachzudenken. "Bewertung von Blue Pearl".... Das würde unter Umständen, so dieses Gerücht sich als wahr erweist, jedem hier nur helfen. Eure Motzerei hilft indess niemandem

Neono

[ualter]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.904 von Cuba_Libre am 31.03.07 11:16:30

Der grösste Spamer hier warst du, aber nur bis heute.
Jedem das seine und dir das deine,
Machs gut

#666 von Cuba_Libre 31.03.07 11:16:30 Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.904
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[allesaufblau]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.598.929 von Neono am 31.03.07 11:23:35

Es ist eine Information, die ihr mit in eure Entscheidungen einbeziehen könnt, oder nicht. Die tut keinem weh und ist nicht beleidigend. Davon lebt eine Community.

tut mir leid, das was Du hier von Dir gibst sind keine Informationen, sondern Gerüchte aus dubiosen, nicht genannten Quellen. Verschone uns bitte damit...

[ualter]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.599.154 von allesaufblau am 31.03.07 12:12:42

"23.02.07 / 14:16
Blue Pearl Mining eine Kursrakete
Westerburg (aktiencheck.de AG) - Der Wertpapierexperte Markus Frick empfiehlt in der Rubrik Kolumne von "aktiencheck.de" die Aktie von Blue Pearl Mining (ISIN -/ WKN A0F577) als Kursrakete. Im August 2006 sei Markus Frick durch die Kollegen von www.Rohstoffraketen.de auf eine sehr interessante Aktie aufmerksam geworden. Es habe sich um Blue Pearl Mining gehandelt. Der Kurs habe damals bei 1,50 Euro gestanden und Frick sei von diesem Potenzial überzeugt gewesen. Er habe Blue Pearl Mining als die neue Kursrakete auf seiner Email-Hotline vorgestellt. Blue Pearl stehe erst ganz am Anfang einer herausragenden Unternehmensentwicklung. Der Rohstoff Molybdän werde in Zukunft noch knapper werden, was Blue Pearl zugute kommen werde. Molybdän (Mo) komme meist als Molybdänit (MoS2) vor und gehöre im Periodensystem der Elemente zur Chromgruppe. Molybdän sei ein hartes Metall und finde seine Hauptverwendung in der Härtung von Stahl. Blue Pearl sei fundamental bestens aufgestellt. Man sei auf das weltweit womöglich einzige Weltklasse Molybdän-Projekt mit hochgradigen Gehalten konzentriert. Es handle sich um das Davidson-Projekt in der Nähe von Smithers in British Columbia (Kanada). Wenn man sich das Unternehmen Blue Pearl Mining anschaue, dann müsse man auch die erfolgreiche Übernahme von Thompson Creek erwähnen. Man habe den fünftgrößten Molybdän-Produzenten der Welt für 575 Mio. US-Dollar gekauft. Damit habe man nicht nur einen Jahresgewinn von über 350 Mio. US-Dollar gekauft, sondern auch Reserven in den Minen, die noch mindestens für weitere zehn Jahre ausreichen würden und eine der größten Erz-Verarbeitungsanlagen in Nordamerika. Zusätzlich habe man 150 Mio. US-Dollar Cash übernommen. Man wolle nach 21 Mio. Pfund Moly in 2007 die Produktion 2008 auf 27 Mio. und 2009 auf 29 Mio. hochfahren. Bleibe der Molypreis über 20 US-Dollar je Pfund, dürfte Blue Pearl in 2007 ca. 280 Mio. US-Dollar verdienen. Durch die sehr niedrige Bewertung wäre das Unternehmen für einen Großen der Branche immer noch ein attraktives Übernahmeziel. Die Blue Pearl Mining-Aktie empfiehlt der Wertpapierexperte Markus Frick in der Rubrik Kolumne von "aktiencheck.de" als Kursrakete. (23.02.2007/ac/a/a)
"

Es gibt noch einige mehr...
Von der Quelle kann man halten was man will, aber das BPM ein hervorragendes Objekt zur Übernahme ist wurde schon mehrfach hier diskutiert und sollte nicht generell in Frage gestellt werden.

[Neono]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.599.154 von allesaufblau am 31.03.07 12:12:42

Auch ein Gerücht ist eine Information

Ob die Quelle dubios ist oder nicht kannst Du ganz bestimmt nicht entscheiden. Ich vertraue der Quelle und sie hat mir bislang viel Geld verdient. Andere lesen halt Börsenbriefe oder rufen die Frick Hotline an. Ich vertraue eher Leuten, die seit vielen Jahrzehnten in diesem Business erfolgreich agieren.

Neono

[beautifulmind]

BLUE PEARL MINING LTD (BLE.TO) On Mar 30: 12.18 0.19 (1.58%)
MORE ON BLE.TO

Analyst Estimates Get Analyst Estimates for:

aktualisiert nach Jahresabschlußbericht 2006)

......................................
....................................

Growth Est BLE.TO Industry Sector S&P 500
Current Qtr. N/A N/A N/A 3.5% (=4.Q./2006)
Next Qtr. N/A N/A N/A 14.3%
This Year N/A N/A N/A 6.6%
Next Year 417.1% N/A N/A 11.6% (=2007)
Past 5 Years (per annum) N/A N/A N/A N/A
Next 5 Years (per annum) 5.0% N/A N/A N/A
Price/Earnings (avg. for comparison categories) N/A N/A N/A 15.20
PEG Ratio (avg. for comparison categories) N/A N/A N/A N/A

Yahoo.com/finance

Wenn man die Ersteinschätzung vom 4.Quartal 2006 mit 73% Wachstum
für 2007 in der Informationsbündelung bei Yahoo noch vor Augen hat, die bis Anfang der Woche galt, dann gibt es wohl bereits Analystenhochstufungen, die von einem Kurs der Aktie über 30, eher
40 Can$ ausgehen!
meinungen die

[therefore]

March 27, 2007
By James Finch


King of the Primary Molybdenum World
Wonders about Supply Problems

Lack of Forward Sales Could Hinder Future Molybdenum Producers


Blue Pearl executive chairman Ian McDonald sees ‘tremendous’ barriers to entry for new primary molybdenum producers.

Copyright© 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Unauthorized duplication of all or any part of this article is not permitted without written permission from the editor of StockInterview.com.

(Editor’s Note: This is the first in series of corporate updates of primary molybdenum producers and near-term producers. These articles will help with our research efforts in compiling our forthcoming publication about investing in primary molybdenum companies.)

There is a polite arrogance to the new king of primary molybdenum producers that comes with being the big kid on the block. That’s how executive chairman referred to Blue Pearl Mining during our hour-long telephone interview discussing his company’s developments, the future of the molybdenum market and new companies hoping to imitate his success.


Blue Pearl has strong molybdenum assets and promising prospects.

Ian McDonald may very well be entitled to his opinions. After all, Blue Pearl could produce the same number of molybdenum poundage in 2007 as Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) would produce of uranium. And unencumbered by those pesky legacy contracts or remediation efforts at Cigar Lake. Blue Pearl is now the largest publicly traded primary molybdenum producer. The company plans to mine about one-fifth of the world’s primary moly in 2007, about five percent of the world’s total mined molybdenum. His company will also roast about 12 percent of the world’s molybdenum. Not bad for a company which was a penny stock some seven months ago.

Blue Pearl has become the darling of Bay Street since the company announced its audacious US$575 million acquisition of privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company. Having closed the transaction in late October, Blue Pearl now owns two operating molybdenum mines and concentrators and a metallurgical (roaster) facility in Pennsylvania. In mid June, the company’s shares traded for less than C$1.80; yesterday the stock closed at C$12.06. Since late August, shares in Blue Pearl have climbed relentlessly, with only brief pauses of consolidation.

We were fortunate to have included Blue Pearl in our seminal molybdenum article about the metal’s relationship with the energy bull market, this past July, at a time when few had heard of the company.

On Monday, the company announced encouraging cash flow from the recently acquired Thompson Creek operations. In the 67 days following this acquisition, Blue Pearl generated revenues of $150.8 million, about $2.25 million per day. Annualized, this could reach more than $800 million in 2007 if the price molybdenum remains firm and production continues according to plan.

Production costs for output from the company’s Thompson Creek and Endako molybdenum mines averaged $6.28/pound. The company sold this production at an average price of $25.74/pound. By 2008, the company hopes to mine 27 million pounds from these mines. The firm moly price helped Blue Pearl discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility of $64.3 million in mid March. According to Monday’s news release, the company cash balance stands at approximately $135 million.

The company expects its bank debt to fall to $320 million after paying its first quarterly installment in 2007 of $18.75 million. Blue Pearl incurred $401.9 million in long-term debt as part of its acquisition of Thompson Creek Metals. At its current production pace, the quarterly bank payments amount to a little more than one week’s production.



What’s on Ian McDonald’s Mind?


Blue Pearl's high-grade Davidson deposit is near present mining facilities in Endako.

Historically, according to Western Troy’s Rex Loesby, annual molybdenum demand has grown about four percent since the 1950s. This fits well with McDonald’s forecast of 700 million pounds by 2020. “That’s what will need to be the supply,” he told us. And where will this come from? “That, of course, is the big question,” McDonald said. “There’s a dearth of new projects in the pipeline.” And he reminded us that China has started to consume more of their own molybdenum production.

As with uranium and other metals, China is a wild card for molybdenum supply. In any moly discussion, China remains a primary concern for miners. “China was producing, 13 to 14 years ago, about 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million into a 230-million pound market,” McDonald pointed out. “Last year, in a 400-million pound market, China produced about 80 million pounds, net exporting about 30 million, so they are keeping more. The story is they use more of their own.” He is quick to point out that global moly demand was up six percent in 2006, but China’s demand increased some 20 percent.

“I’m not going to sugar coat it,” McDonald points out. “If they wanted to make it look bad, they would. If they start dumping on the market, everybody’s trashed.” But he doesn’t believe this is a likely scenario. There are only 39 big mines in the world, producing molybdenum, he told us. “But in China, there are over 500 small mom-and-pop operations. China is desirous of having some world-class companies, and they’ve shut down some of the smaller operations because they don’t use their power efficiently. If you have a big mining company, they are going to have a long-term view and maximize the country’s resources.”

From where supply comes from is second to the increasing demand McDonald sees ahead. “There are a growing number of applications for molybdenum.” He pointed out that cars consume molybdenum. “There’s about 0.9 pound or so in about a dozen different places in the automobile, and with 55 million cars in the world, that’s about 50 million pounds.” This is probably the third largest application of moly.

“High-end molybdenum stainless steel applications consume the biggest amount,” McDonald said. “Any steel that’s used in the ocean or near the ocean has got molybdenum in it.” He pointed out that Blue Pearl leaves about 10 percent of the company’s molybdenum production in the sulphide form for the high-end lubrication market – the oil companies. “Most of it is made into tech oxide, MO3, and about 25 percent would be ferromolybdenum,” he said. “We just sold some (ferromoly) in Europe for $34/pound.”

His company was chosen to help produce advice on the newly launched Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund. We asked about his involvement. “We get a small fee for storing molybdenum if they choose to buy,” he told us. It would be stored at Blue Pearl’s metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania. “We would also sell them some,” he added. His company would not be counseling the fund in which companies to take investment stakes. “It would pose a conflict of interest and we would have to recuse ourselves,” he said.




Sees New Supply on the Horizon Lacking

Open pit molybdenum mining in Idaho. Mining at Blue Pearl's Thompson Creek operations cost $5.83/pound to produce. Molybdenum mined there was sold for more than $25/pound

“There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market,” McDonald observed. “Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.” He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.” He explained his own personal experience, “When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior.”

One place where he sees imminent molybdenum supply is from Blue Pearl’s Davidson deposit, not far from the company’s Endako mine and milling facility. “We will have the feasibility out in the second quarter – I say second quarter, but I hope it’s very soon,” McDonald told us. “It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world.” He said his company was lucky to have gotten it three years ago. “It had been ready for production and there was a lot of development done on it.” So, the company decided to move to the final feasibility study instead of bothering with a scoping study or pre-feasibility. He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.

What about mine development? “There’s already 2.5 kilometers of underground workings there and terrific ground conditions,” he said. “We opened that up a couple of years ago, after no one had been underground in 25 years. All of the scaling for the entire 2.5 kilometers fit in a five-gallon paint bucket.” McDonald told us Blue Pearl plans to just mine the deposit and little else, “We will not even crush it, just a rock breaker, and just haul it right down to Endako.”

But Blue Pearl may take in a partner on Davidson – the Japanese trading company, Sojitz. “They own 25 percent of Endako, and they want to buy 25 percent of Davidson,” McDonald said. “It would make sense, if they own the same percentage of both. There wouldn’t be any recovery issues, or combining of ore and al that. We would have the same labor force.” He did caution the deal was not done yet. “We’ll look to possibly do a transaction with them.”
Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a ‘super pit.’ The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. “I feel pretty good about that, it’s pretty realistic,” he told us. “We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors.”


Trucks hauling molybdenum ore to and from the open pit mine in Idaho.

We discussed his vision of expanding the mill to 50,000 tons per day. “It’s probably 32,000 tons per day now,” he pointed out. The first step involves redoing the reserves and resource calculations at Thompson Creek and Endako using a $10/pound moly price. The previous pricing was “way too conservative,” according to McDonald. We suspect the higher resource figure would open the door to raising the likely $250 million to upgrade the facility to the higher tonnage operation. And his mind is already moving in that direction.

“Let’s say we had a study done within the next year,” he explained. “It would take to 2008 or 2009 to build it. Unfortunately, because the mine has been operating for forty-two years, we would have to move the existing mill.” The mill would have to be moved because there is ore beneath the present mill site. “It won’t happen overnight,” he warned.

And what about those other junior molybdenum companies? “We aren’t going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits,” he responded. “Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we’d rather buy something that’s either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production.”
What are his plans as 2007 rolls on? “We qualify for the New York Stock Exchange,” McDonald confided. “We’ve talked to them. I think we will get the ball rolling this spring, and we could look for an early fall consummation. We are going to come to the U.S., we qualify and they seem pretty keen on having us.”

Just to make sure we got his story right, McDonald added, “We’re not going to sit on our laurels. We have a lot of growth ahead of us, bringing on Davidson, expanding the reserves of both mines and doing a scoping study for expanding Endako. Our main job is to get the debt paid down and increase the reserves. That’s quite a bit. It’s all within our backyard and with our own expertise. Anything we do outside of that – we will do other things, I think, but they are things that are going to be for sure.”



WEBSITES and Trading Symbols of companies
featured in this article:
Blue Pearl Mining TSX: BLE www.bluepearl.ca

Please email your feedback on this article: [e-mail]

[Videomart]

Mar 30, 2007 17:30 ET "Bay Street Week Ahead"

(Figures in U.S. dollars)

By Susan Taylor

OTTAWA, March 30 (Reuters) - Investors are taking a shine
to a rare, silvery-white metal called molybdenum, but the
durability of a market rally may hinge on looming export
controls from China.
A surge in prices could benefit producers and the Toronto
Stock Exchange, home to the world\'s largest publicly traded,
pure-play molybdenum producer, Blue Pearl Mining , and
a host of explorers.
Stocks related to the base metal, valued for its
anti-corrosive and strengthening properties, have been soaring
for weeks, underpinned by sturdy prices and buzz about a new
fund that will invest in molybdenum and the companies that
produce it.
Now, anticipation is building for news on a quota system
from China, which could soon release a list of the molybdenum
producers it will allow to export. Fewer than 30 names are
expected, a Chinese industry group said, and exports could fall
by 10 percent.
"It comes down to the Chinese," said Ian Nakamoto, director
of research at MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier. "They could
make or break the market."
About 400 million pounds of molybdenum were produced last
year, with tight supplies making the market sensitive to supply
disruptions and contributing to price pressures.
China is a major supplier of the metal, used primarily as a
hardening agent in the production of stainless steel. It
contributed about 17 percent of the world supply in 2006 and
topped the world in reserves, UBS said in a report.
Other key suppliers are the United States and South
America, where molybdenum is a byproduct of copper mining.
The tough-to-pronounce metal moved into the mainstream amid
a meteoric rise for shares in Toronto-based Blue Pearl.
Producers of the extremely hard metal make up only a small
portion of the TSX materials sector, which is down about 1.4
percent over the past month. In contrast, Toronto-based Blue
Pearl has climbed 37 percent.
Other producers and developers of what is being called a
new mining "mega-star" have seen similar gains.
Moly Mines Ltd. , which has an Australian project
that could contribute 20 million pounds annually in 2008-2009,
has seen its stock surge more than 125 percent over the month.
Strapping stock jumps have also touched miners close to
production. Roca Mines shares popped 100 percent this
month and Adanac Molybdenum Corp. is up 74 percent.
Interest in molybdenum is also being piqued by resource
guru Eric Sprott\'s planned Sprott Molybdenum Participation
Corp. The fund, preparing for an IPO, will invest in miners and
up to 50 percent of its capital directly in molybdenum.
Two weeks ago, tight supplies and uncertainty over China
lifted molybdenum prices to 16-month highs of
$79 a kilogram. Since then, it has slipped to about $75 per
kilogram, 25 percent above the start of the year.
Investor interest has sparked an exploration revival among
juniors and has senior miners revisiting old plans.
"You\'re seeing lots of companies coming out of the woodwork
with historical molybdenum deposits that they\'re starting to
promote," said Wellington West mining analyst Greg Huffman.
Still, he doesn\'t expect much new production over the next
two years, though new deposits could be developed by 2010, or
2011, depending on prices.
Ten companies produce about 66 percent of global output,
UBS said. Leaders Codelco of Chile and U.S.-based Phelps Dodge,
recently acquired by Freeport-McMoRan, account for 33 percent.
Other notable producers include Blue Pearl, Rio Tinto ,
Grupo Mexico , Jinduichenge and Antofagasta
.
Trading firm Shangxiang Minmetals predicted in late 2006
that the world molybdenum market will move from deficit to
balance in 2007 with supply estimated at 445 million to 450
million pounds and demand at 445 million pounds.
Some analysts see it differently. "Commodities are here to
stay for a while. (I see) sustainability for quite some time,"
said Nakamoto.
($1=$1.15 Canadian)
((Bay Street Week Ahead appears weekly. Comments or questions
can be e-mailed to [e-mail].))
((Reporting by Susan Taylor, editing by Rob Wilson,
Reuters Messaging: [e-mail], tel:
[phone]))

[Firsteven]

03/23/07: We are now accepting indications of interest in the Initial Public Offering of Units of
Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation. Customer’s indication of interest will be accepted until the earlier of 3 PM ET 04/05/07, or the closing of the selling group book.
Quelle: https://www.canada.etrade.com/pages/quotes/ipo.shtml



Anatomy of a successful bought deal
Uranium Participation sells 5.825M shares
Barry Critchley, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, March 29, 2007
Veterans of the investment business will tell you that a successful deal is one where the stock rises in the aftermarket.

On that basis, Uranium Participation Corp. has a successful deal. One week back, the issuer announced a bought-deal financing, the sale of 5.825 million shares at $14.60 per unit.

The deal was announced on March 20, about 30 minutes before the markets closed for the day. The shares closed that day at $15.08, down 8? from the previous day.


Email to a friend

Printer friendly
Font: ****Since then, the shares have risen steadily. They hit $15.83, a record high, on Tuesday, beating the $15.75 posted last Friday. The shares closed yesterday at $15.75.

The deal is set to close on April 10.

UPC was formed to invest in and hold uranium oxide in concentrates. Denison Mines was retained to manage those activities.

At UPC's 2006 annual meeting, shareholders approved a plan to broaden its investment mandate to also invest in uranium hexafluoride.

UPC's current financing is its fourth since it went public in spring, 2005. Back then, it sold 20 million units at $5 per unit, with each unit consisting of a common share plus one-quarter of a share-purchase warrant. In December, 2005, it raised $64.50-million via the sale of 10.75 million units at $6 per unit. In 2006, it was involved in two financings: the sale of 6.27 million shares at $8.25 per unit and the sale of 11.36 million units at $8.80 per unit.

Along the way, UPC has set another record, a record that can only be matched: On all of its deals, the underwriters have exercised the so-called overallotment option.

Now for molybdenum Uranium Participation Corp. was the brainchild of Eric Sprott, the founder of Sprott Securities and now the boss at Sprott Asset Management.

And judging by his actions, Sprott is keen to replicate the success he has achieved with UPC. Earlier this month, Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. filed a preliminary prospectus for an offering of units: Each unit will consist of a common share plus half a share-purchase warrant.

"The primary investment objective of the corporation is to achieve capital appreciation by investing in securities of private and public companies that explore for, mine and/or process molybdenum and by investing in ... all commercial forms of molybdenum," said the prospectus. Sprott Asset Management will provide management services to the operation and will receive a base fee of 2% plus an annual incentive fee set at 20% of the gain in the portfolio above the gain for the S&P/TSX composite index over the same period.

Coventree revisited A footnote to yesterday's column on the decision by Madam Justice Joan Lax on the application brought by three shareholders of Nereus Financial Inc. against its major shareholder, Coventree Inc.

In that decision, Judge Lax ruled in favour of the three shareholders, one of whom, David Rounthwaite, is the president at Nereus. (The three own 21% of Nereus; Coventree owns 75.6%.)

Judge Lax determined that an intervention by the courts was required to restore some semblance of the status quo to Nereus.

That company was rocked by decisions made by Coventree to reduce the size of the Nereus board and take control. Judge Lax declared the meeting invalid.

Also, restrictions were placed on Coventree's ability to make changes. "Coventree is to take no other steps to nominate new directors or to change the size or composition of the board, pending further court order," she wrote.

Judge Lax agreed that a trial should be held on the matter of Coventree exceeding the so-called CDO Limitation.

CDO stands for collateralized debt obligations, and the shareholders' agreement between Coventree and Nereus required that no more than 40% of Coventree's assets would be in the CDO business.

"It seems that the only course left is a process that will permit the CDO limitation to be fairly adjudicated. A trial of the CDO Limitation will ensure that this happens and should proceed," she wrote.

"I do not think it lies in Coventree's mouth to deny Nereus its day in court on this issue because three of its minority shareholders brought this application.

"They are here because of Coventree's conduct. Nereus shall have carriage, instructed by management."

Judge Lax noted that the special committee of the Nereus board wasn't charged with quantifying the loss caused to Nereus. She did note that "significant assets" could be at stake.

"The transactions that Coventree has apparently concluded beyond the CDO Limitation have a value in excess of $4-billion. The fees earned for these transactions are substantial," she wrote.

Bell at Wellington West Rusty Bell is the newest member of the institutional equity team Wellington West Capital Markets Inc.

Bell, who has been in the investment business for more than a dozen years, carries the title of director, institutional equity sales.

Bell, who spent the past three years working in London for two independent securities firms -- Westwind Partners and Canaccord Adams -- will focus on covering clients in both Canada and the U.K. Bell will be based in Canada.

In London, he focused on mining and oil and gas companies.

"Rusty is an important part of Wellington West's initiative of broadening our distribution capabilities outside of Canada," said Greg Thompson, the firm's president.

[e-mail]

© National Post 2007





by James Finch
Newest Moly Producer To Get Higher Price
March 28, 2007 01:48 PM EST

According a Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group (JDC) spokesman, China’s Ministry of Commerce will soon announce the country’s list of potential exporters of moly products. JDC vice president Lu Jingyou told attendees at an Asian ferroalloys conference on Tuesday there were 54 molybdenum producers who were candidates for exporting moly. He noted, “But I expect less than 50 percent of the total to be granted the export quotas.” In any event, he told attendees at the conference that Chinese moly exports were falling.

The small number of potentially selected Chinese molybdenum exporters, and falling Chinese exports, is bullish for the molybdenum price. The short-list signals the market that China’s much-feared ‘return’ to the moly market lacks the teeth many anticipated it could have. This fits in with speculation StockInterview discussed with Blue Pearl executive chairman Ian McDonald. In comments not previously published, McDonald told us, “If they (the Chinese) can produce it at $4/pound and can sell steel that has moly in it, they’ll make more money eventually selling the finished product.”

The Chinese export decision could provide a bonanza to the new breed of molybdenum producers in much the same way a tighter uranium supply market recently benefited uranium companies, especially those which moved their development projects into operating mines. Having previously interviewed Scott Broughton, chief executive of Roca Mines Inc (ROCAF), we requested a follow-up conversation to determine when the MAX underground molybdenum mine would commence operations.

Companies selling material into a strong commodities market are frequently rewarded with stronger investor interest. When Roca’s MAX molybdenum mine opens this year, it will be the first new metals mine to open in Canada’s British Columbia province in ten years.

StockInterview: You were delayed with your mine opening late last year. Can you explain what happened to cause the delay?
Scott Broughton: We had originally planned to be in production by the end of 2006. In November, we started to endure some pretty tough winter time conditions. We started off with a lot of rainfall and by the end of November it turned into a lot of snowfall. In fact, we had a record setting year in the area—there was a record total of 35 feet of snow that landed at Trout Lake, the nearest community to us. The bottom line for us was that we obviously had suffered delays as a result of that winter. We found ourselves in a situation where we could spend a lot of time, effort and money trying to fight a condition that was essentially out of our control.

StockInterview: Can you give us guidance as to a realistic mine opening and if you can still make your calendar year 2007 production targets?
Scott Broughton: We made an announcement in November that we were going to make some adjustments to our programs, our construction programs on the surface. The key one was that we were going to accelerate the installation of a second mill, ball mill in our concentrator. That was going to allow us to recover from a delayed start-up and still meet the production targets that we would like to meet for 2007. That’s really how we‘ve tried to resolve or tried to deal with the winter time delays that we’ve endured. In that regards, any real remaining obstacles to that, except that we are still in construction, we are still enjoying some winter time tough conditions though we can definitely see spring is on the horizon and most of our snow is melting away at the moment. We have 50 people working at the site, all working hard to make it come together. We are going to be very proud of it when it’s all bolted together, and it’s actually producing cash flow.

StockInterview: Is this going to be a problem next winter? Scott Broughton: No, the issues for us were related to, again, the surface construction of the facility, the concentrator itself and also our tailing facility. Both of those areas once constructed, especially grow over time, but they don’t need to grow continuously. We definitely wouldn’t be planning or programming any of that kind of work to happen in the winter time period again. StockInterview: What is the condition of your two circuits and are there any problems with either circuit?
Scott Broughton: The mill we acquired was a second-hand used mill that was rated for 1,000 ton/day. It was made up of two circuits, primarily described as two circuits, because what they were processing was a zinc and a lead concentrate at that site. That really was the reason for describing these as two separate circuits. At our site, we are reconfiguring that and using officially two ball mills and the remaining equipment that’s in that facility. Originally, we planned to set up one of the mills and that would get us to our 500 ton/day target. As I mentioned, we made a decision in November to accelerate – to expand by putting in both of those mills and getting up to what would be targeted as 1,000 ton/day as quickly as possible.

StockInterview: How do you define ‘as quickly as possible’?
Scott Broughton: I think we would expect both of those mills to be running shortly after the day that we commence production. We are aiming for middle of 2007.

StockInterview: Why are you adding a second tunnel to the underground mine? Scott Broughton:There’s an analogy here to what we’ve done at the mill. When we encountered the delay, we realized there was an opportunity there to make up time and make up production in a robust molybdenum market. We do have a pretty significant lead time in developing a second underground access. It’s about a 9-month project for us. We decided to do it to facilitate a continuously operated 1,000 ton/day rate of production from the mine, but also to ease the existing bottlenecks and burdens we have on the underground operation. StockInterview: What’s the benefit for adding a second tunnel?
Scott Broughton: My example or metaphor for what we are trying to achieve here is that we are trying to build at the moment a sailing ship inside of a bottle. When you try to build something inside of a bottle with only one opening, you are bound to have a number of challenges and a number of bottlenecks that might affect you. When we have a second adit, we will be able to have more ventilation forced through the underground workings of the underground mine. We will be able to have more equipment working underground. We will be able to have larger crews working underground. Our ability to move material from production mining will be that much more enhanced. Our cost will be lower. Moreover, we will have a better chance to do more of the underground development as time goes by. There’s a need to always be developing and building new accesses to new parts of the ore body. We need to always be developing this mine in parallel with the mine being production.

StockInterview: Will this lower production because of the increased construction?
Scott Broughton: It’s not going to affect our Phase I production. We’ve always described the development of this mine occurring in phases. Phase I was the first phase where we went in, we went in small, aggressively we minimized the capital cost to get into production. We are only going to mine the highest grade zone that is most easily accessed. That was going to get us into that cash flow scenario and thereby grow the mine and grow our company. There are plans for subsequent phases—we already talked about the 1,000 t/day scenario. That’s moving us towards what I would describe as a full Phase II up to and running a full 1,000 t/day on a continuously operated basis. Right now, what we are able to build is an underground mine that has roughly 500 ton/day of production capacity on a campaigned basis. Campaigning simply means there are periods when we are producing ore from the mine; other periods where we are only able to do development or exploration of material. The sooner we can get out of the campaigned approach and into the continuously operated 1,000 t/day mine, the better for us in terms of how much molybdenum we can produce. We could be out of the campaigned approach by early 2008 when we have the second adit.

StockInterview: The key to spectacular success at MAX really depends upon the results of your deep-hole exploration, hoping to the parallel the success of Phelps Dodge’s Henderson mine. When are you going to start this exploration? Scott Broughton: We recently did a small financing to start an exploration program. That’s recognition that there is a very good geological target there for Roca to explore sooner rather than later. We’ll start that work as soon as we can locate a drill. I’m going to suggest right that’s on the order of about a month away. Drills in the industry are very hard to come by—they are very busy at the moment as are contractors and miners and anything involved in the mining business right now. I would say somewhere in the order of a month we will be starting the first drill hole subject to the availability of a drill. StockInterview: How deep will you drill and how many holes do you plan to drill? Scott Broughton: The target is on the order of 500 meters below our existing tunnel access. We’ll be drilling holes that are on the order of 600 to 800 meters deep to be tested initially. But some of those might also go up to 1,000 meters potentially. Without being too prescriptive about that, you might see us drill on the order of 10 holes that are targeted in that area. They will vary in their depth up to say about 1,000 meters. StockInterview: How lengthy a drilling program do you expect? Scott Broughton: It’s a results-dependent program. Most exploration is. The initial phase of what we can do, with the money we just raised, will probably take well into the fall period. It could be well into the fall before we have actual assay results. But in the interim, most of the mineralization at our site is easy to see and easy to spot. We’ll be making adjustments before we drill holes based upon what we discover in the first few. StockInterview: Sounds like you’ll be busy for the rest of this year. With all of this construction and exploration, at what pace do you plan to mine to play catch up for this late start? Scott Broughton: We’re building a 1,000 ton/day capacity in our mill. That’s giving us lots of flexibility. As I mentioned with that analogy of building a sailing ship inside a bottle, there’s going to be days when we can move from the underground mine up to 1,000 ton/day of ore, therefore, we have a mine and a mill that are synchronized if you will. There’s going to be other days when the mine might only be able to produce 500 ton/day. We’ll be on and off in that regard basically maximizing them as much as we can in the production. Obviously, we want to make as much molybdenum as we can for 2007 and our current targets are still three million pounds for 2007. StockInterview: When do you plan on paying back your capital costs?
Scott Broughton: In reality, this company doesn’t have any debt. When we start production here, we all will be working for a company that doesn’t have any debt to service. In real terms, we will be paying back the amount that we’ve invested to date. It is a bit ambiguous but we will have spent on the order of C$20 million by the time we’ve built. Again, we’ve kind of overbuilt above our original Phase I plan. We should see that paid back on the order of months from the time of start-up.

StockInterview: What do you do with your profits, then, as it appears you’ll be profitable/ Scott Broughton: We have always described this mine as a company builder. Right now, in our space, the world is absolutely full of opportunities. You should see us in the near term doing some very tax-efficient things with respect to how we might be able to tackle other projects going forward. There’s the prospect of eventually paying dividends. Bottom line for us is that this is a company that has come up from nothing only a few short years ago. We are the company that has identified this asset and took it forward, built it on a really low budget, and it’s about to generate enormous cash flow. We’d love to be able to demonstrate doing that again to our shareholders.




Resources are hot but special metals can tarnish
PURE SPECULATION
Robin Bromby
March 24, 2007

DON'T get analysts started on resource sector punters. They'll tell you many of these investors are flying by the seat of the pants. Just look at uranium, they say: the market has failed to discriminate between real projects and hype.
Specialty metals are also a trap. When Accent Resources came out on Thursday declaring a new vanadium project near Katanning in Western Australia, its shares rose 25 per cent. The stock retreated yesterday, possibly because the punters saw a report from British analysts Roskill saying the vanadium market would be in surplus within two years and prices would retreat.
The problem with specialty metals is their small market size. Get a few more mines in production, and a shortage becomes a surplus. The metal, in vanadium pentoxide form, was fetching above $US10 a pound last year and is now down to $US7.20/lb with Roskill predicting $US4.50/lb by 2009.

Accent is well behind the pack. Precious Metals Australia, notwithstanding its involvement with Brian Burke, will probably be the first Australian producer. Aurox Resources, with the Balla Balla project, should be next - the company already has an offtake agreement and this week said it was talking to a new potential partner, "a major diversified resources company", about developing the mine.

Then there's Reed Resources which, although lagging the other two, has presold its first 10 years of production.

ON the subject of specialty metals used to strengthen steel, we have news that Canadian investment resources guru Eric Sprott is launching a molybdenum fund. To be called Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp, it will raise $C75 million ($80 million) to invest in molybdenum producers and explorers.

Moly Mines, which has just got a mining licence for its Spinifex Ridge project in WA, will be an obvious target, as will Canada's Blue Pearl Mining, the world's largest traded producer. You'd have to think that Sprott would also look at some of our emerging moly companies, namely Queensland Ores, Marengo Mining, PacMag Metals and Thor Mining.

Moly Mines shares came off sharply yesterday, possibly because they overshot on their recent run-up. But don't confuse moly with vanadium. About 65 per cent of molybdenum production is a by-product of big copper mines, but many of these are seeing declining outputs of moly. China, which produces 20 per cent of the world's supply, has just placed export quotas on moly. Therefore, expect a squeeze in the near future as steel makers start to fret about supplies.

THERE was a call yesterday at the Australian Uranium Conference for a uranium index on the ASX now that there are close to 100 listed companies with uranium targets.

If that comes about, the index would have to include Broad Investments, a ring tone and mobile phone play which has taken its name literally and diversified into uranium, joining those other techs trying to rise from the ranks of the obscure on yellowcake's back, PocketMail Group and Blaze International.

Broad, which has picked up seven projects in WA, has no background in mining but executive chairman Vaz Hovanessian does. He was a mover behind the listings of Zephyr Minerals (now Ashburton Minerals) and Voyager Energy, which merged with Arc Energy two years ago.

Hovanessian hopes to raise about $3 million through a share purchase plan to finance exploration, but clearly some considerable purchasing has already gone on. On March 9, 6.4 million Broad shares were traded. Then, on March 13 - a week ahead of the uranium announcement - trading jumped to 330 million shares and stayed above 170 million a day until the stock was suspended.

Resource investors may have gaps in their metals knowledge, but their intuition is something to behold.

The Weekend Australian implies no recommendations regarding any of the stocks mentioned. The author does not own shares in any of the mentioned securities.

brombyr@theaustralian. com.au





Initial Public Offerings

SPROTT MOLYBDENUM PARTICIPATION CORP. (app. $5.00-7.00 per unit) - Closing mid-Apr.
Quelle: http://www.pi-securities.com/




Zum Abschluss nochmal etwas zum Thema China Moly - IPO und Bewertung der Firma:

Hier nochmal der Bericht:

China Moly gears for 729m yuan expansion
Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the largest molybdenum miner in China, plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$736.7 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the largest molybdenum miner in China, plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$736.7 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.
In order to lure investors, the Luoyang-based company is expected to pay 30 percent of its profits as shareholder dividends, said a report by UBS, one of the sponsors of the initial public offering.

According to media reports, China Moly's US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) offer will receive support from major investors, including tycoons Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau-kee and Cheng Yu-tung, as well as Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. UBS and Morgan Stanley are handling the deal.

Morgan Stanley said the fair valuation of China Moly should fall between 10 and 15 times price bto 2007 earnings, compared with metal producer Hunan Nonferrous Metal Corp's (2626) 15 times.

China Moly's open-pit Sandaozhuang mine is one of the world's largest molybdenum mines with an estimated mine life of 46 years.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company will post a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan this year, a 43 percent increase from last year.

Molybdenum, a transition metal, is used in high-strength alloys and in high-temperature steels. It is also used in oil pipelines, aircraft and missile parts.

Pigments are used in paints, inks, plastics and rubber materials.

UBS forecasts the average price for molybdenum will be US$22.50 per pound this year, from a peak average of US$33.90 in 2005 and US$25.11 in 2006.

Each 1 percent change in price could lead to 2.2 percent change in the firm's 2007 earnings.

The company started producing molybdenum downstream products in the second half of last year following an aggressive capital expansion of 618 million yuan in 2005 and 788 million yuan last year.


2.17 billion yuan net profit / Nettogewinn (dürften rd. 280 Mio. USD sein)
Morgan Stanley spricht von einer fairen Bewertung mit einem KGV von 10-15 !!!

Demnach hat Blue Pearl noch ein sehr sehr großes Potenzial!!!

[Firsteven]

http://resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=30446

CHICAGO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Since storming back into investors’ hearts a few years ago, molybdenum’s been a fairly volatile market - with prices spanning from the low single digits to highs above $40/lb.
But with threats of Chinese export controls and the launch of new ETF in Canada, an already tight supply situation has recently gotten much worse in the moly market, sending spot prices above $30/lb. in recent days. With that move, shares of primary molybdenum producers have taken off – with new 52-week highs almost a daily occurrence.


Reasons for a Rise

Among the biggest reasons moving the market is the launch of a moly-based ETF in Canada. Run by Sprott Asset Management, the Sprott Moly Fund is expected to invest up to C$150 million in moly related equities and the actual metal. Just as was seen with the launch of last year’s silver ETF (and given the relatively minuscule and illiquid nature of the moly market and equities), the expected spike in demand is already moving both the metals and the equities to new highs.

Another major factor affecting prices in Chinese supply, after that country’s government announced earlier this month that it plans to introduce a quota system for molybdenum exports in the near future. The quota system will only grant export permission to those firms with export volumes of over 3,000 tonnes and with registered capital of at least RMB 100 million (approximately US$13 million).

While it’s uncertain how much this will impact Chinese moly exports, the country export product has already decreased by 10% over the past year (following the adoption of an export tariff last fall). For a country that supplies 20% of a metal in a tight supply-demand market, that’s nothing to sneeze at. The export restrictions came into play because of the jump in Chinese demand for the metal (coincident with the growth of the steel industry, as molybdenum is primarily used to strengthen various steel products), and the Chinese government’s growing desire to retain more of its metal production for domestic use.

Beyond being used in steel for the construction industry, molybdenum is also critically important to the energy complex. According to Sprott Asset Management, a 5,000-foot oil well requires 50 tons of molybdenum-hardened steel to drill; a 15,000-foot well requires a whopping 1,100 tonnes.

The Moly Pure Play

Shares of Blue Pearl Mining [TSX:BLE] were among the biggest movers on the back of the soaring moly price, climbing as high C$12.30 after trading at C$7 as recently as mid-February.

Blue Pearl, previously covered by Resource Investor was created in early 2005, but didn’t really hit the scene in last fall, when it the junior bought out privately-held Thompson Creek Metals, the largest primary molybdenum producer (most other moly producers, such as Rio Tinto and BHP, produce the metal as a by-product) in North America. As such, Blue Pearl has become the defacto pure-play for investors seeking operational moly exposure.

While Blue Pearl recently reported a net loss of US$21 million for 2006, this was largely due to inventory purchase costs associated with the Thompson Creek acquisition. UBS analysts recently estimated 2007 earnings of US$1.06/share (when Blue Pearl expects it will produce 27 million pounds of moly), giving the company a forward P/E of just over 9 times.

While shares have had quite a run-up, a pending re-evaluation of mineral reserves using a long-term assumption of $10/lb moly (versus $3.50-$5 previously) could have an effect of a valuation re-rating for the up-and-coming producer. Blue Pearl also plans on formally changing its name to Thomspon Creek Metals and seeking a NYSE listing in the near future.

Moly explorers have also been making new highs, including shares of Idaho General Mines [AMEX:GMO], Moly Mines [ASX:MOL], Mercator Minerals [TSXv:ML] and Roca Mines [TSXv:ROK].

[Firsteven]

Hier 2 top Beiträge von therefore:



Hallo Leute,

habe heute eine Analyse der Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl zum ersten Quartal 2007 gelesen.

Anbei einige Highlights:
Hierbei wurde erneut deutlich, wie nachhaltig der stark wachsende Bedarf in den wirtschaftlich aufstrebenden Ländern Asiens die Entwicklung auf den globalen Rohstoffmärtkten beeinflusst.

Da das zweite Jahresquartal traditionell die Periode mit den stärksten Aktivitätsniveau in der Stahlindustrie ist, ist allgemein auch in den kommenden Monaten mit einer anhaltend hohen Nachfrage bei den Legierungsstoffen zu rechnen. Damit dürfte auch der Preistrend weiterhin eher nach oben gerichtet sein.

Der im Jahresverlauf 2006 zu verzeichnende kräftige Aufschwunfg in der Rostfrei-Konjunktur hat sich ins Jahr 2007 hinein fortgesetzt. Die Beschäftigugn der Werke ist für die Werke gesichert. In bestimmten Teilbereichen wird sogar schon für das Jahr 2008 gebucht, so dass das Jahr 2007 schon als bereits gelaufen gelten kann.

Auf dem westeuropäischen Markt bei Molybdän ist derzeit wieder ein deutlich steigender Trend zu beobachten.

In diesem Zusammenhang ist auf die gute Auftragslage der Rostfrei-Werke bei den Mo-legierten Gütern hinzuweisen, die aus aktueller Sicht eine etwa vier bis fünf Monate reichende Beschäftigung sichert. Hier macht sich die gute Konjunnktur bei den Produkten für die Erdölindustrie (d.h. bei Raffinerie-Ausrüstungen und Prozessanlagen) bemerkbar.

So wurde für einige wichtige Ferrolegierungen (unter anderem Molybdän) bereits vor geraumer Zeit ein Export-Lizenzsystem eingeführt. Ergänzend hat die chinesische Regierung mit der generellen Zielsetzung einer Verschärfung der bestehenden Exportrestriktionen zudem die Einführung von Exportquoten für wichtige Legierungsmetalle- und hierbei insbesondere auch für Molybdän - angekündigt. Gleichzeitig soll dann auch - so derzeit Gerüchte im Markt - die Exportsteuer nochmals weiter auf 20% erhöht werden.

Es sieht also weiter gut aus und ich kann beim besten Willen nicht erkennen, warum es gerade jetzt, wo sich die fundametalen Daten auch noch täglich verbessern, eine Konsolidierung kommen soll.

therefore


Ob eine Konsolidierung kommt, das wissen nur die Götter.

Bei den Kurszielen, von dem die Meisten hier ausgehen, allerdings auf ein bis zwei Jahressicht, ist es eigentlich egal, ob man bei 7 oder 8 Euro eingestiegen ist.

Mein Kursziel für 2008 heißt > 40 Euro (Basis: Molypreis > 40$, Ressourcenverdoppelung, Endako Super-Pit entsteht, Davidson und/oder Übernahmen sind aber noch nicht mit eingerechnet).

Die Meisten hier gehen von Kurszielen zwischen 15 und 25 Euro aus. Eric Sprott hat 28 CAD, also so um die 18 Euro als Kursziel in den Markt gegeben.

Die Berechnungen gehen von einem gleichbleibenden und/oder steigenden Molybdänpreis und einer deutlichen Erweiterung der Molybdänressourcen aus.

Beide Faktoren (Molypreis/Ressourcenausweitung) befinden sich momentan im grünen Bereich.

Dies ist natürlich keine Kaufempfehlung.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Düsseldorf (dpa) - Die anhaltend robuste Konjunktur wird nach Einschätzung der Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl auch in diesem Jahr weltweit für eine lebhafte Nachfrage nach Stahl sorgen. «Zwar ist damit zu rechnen, dass sich das Wachstum leicht abschwächen wird. Doch stehen die Signale für einen langfristigen Stahlaufschwung günstig».

Das sagte der Präsident der Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, Dieter Ameling, in Düsseldorf bei der «Handelsblatt»- Tagung «Stahlmarkt 2007». Belastend dürften sich die anhaltend hohen Kosten für Energie und Rohstoffe auswirken. Nach einem

Laut der Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl wird es auch 2007 weltweit eine große Nachfrage nach Stahl geben.
Plus von 9 Prozent im vergangenen Jahr sei 2007 mit einer Zunahme der Weltrohstahlproduktion um 3,4 Prozent auf 1,29 Milliarden Tonnen zu rechnen, sagte Ameling. «Wie in den Vorjahren werden es vor allem Brasilien, Russland, Indien und China sein, die die Drehzahl des Stahlwachstumsmotors auf hohen Touren halten.» China habe sich mittlerweile aber von einem Stahlimporteur zu einem Stahlexporteur gewandelt, der zunehmend auf die Märkte in den USA und Europa dränge.

Abgesehen von staatlichen Subventionen für chinesische Stahlunternehmen sei auch Besorgnis erregend, dass sie sich verstärkt an Bergbauunternehmen beteiligen, um sich den Zugang zu Erzvorräten zu sichern. Hier sei die Politik gefragt. «Sie muss eingreifen, wenn ein freier und fairer Zugang unserer Industrie zu den internationalen Rohstoffquellen behindert wird.» Die Lage bei den Rohstoff- und Energiepreisen bleibe angespannt, sagte Ameling weiter. So weise der Trend bei den Kohlepreisen zwar wieder nach unten, beim Eisenerz seien dieses Jahr aber erneut Preissteigerungen zu befürchten. «Damit würde sich der Rohstoff im fünften Jahr in Folge verteuern.»

Die Aussichten für die deutsche Stahlindustrie mit rund 91 000 Beschäftigten seien auch dank der guten Inlandsnachfrage wegen des Baubooms gut. In Deutschland dürfte die Produktion mit rund 47 Millionen Tonnen auf dem hohen Niveau des Vorjahres verharren, sagte der Präsident der Wirtschaftsvereinigung. «Mehr als im Jahr 2006 hätten wir nicht produzieren können.» Die hohen Kosten und Investitionen seien bislang an die Kunden weitergegeben worden.

Durch die Energiepolitik der Bundesregierung und die Klimaauflagen der EU-Kommission drohe aber eine Benachteiligung der Branche. «Die Klimavorsorge ist kein Feld für nationale oder europäische Alleingänge», sagte Ameling. Klimaabkommen wie das Kyoto- Protokoll seien nichts wert, wenn sich Staaten wie die USA, China und Indien nicht beteiligten. Sollten die Auflagen für die deutsche und europäische Stahlindustrie weiter verschärft werden, bedeute dies Mehrbelastungen und eine Verschlechterung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit.


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[Firsteven]

China may put curbs on molybdenum export

Bloomberg / Mumbai March 23, 2007



China, the world’s second largest producer of molybdenum, may impose quotas on the exports of ferro-molybdenum soon as a part of the government’s efforts to control the expansion of the polluting mining sector and ensure domestic supplies of the alloy.

The ministry of commerce is studying possible export quotas for ferro-molybdenum, which is used to toughen steel and prevent corrosion, and may impose them ``very soon’’ this year, Wu Wenjun, general manager at Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group, said at a conference in Foshan, Guangdong province today.

China, which has the world’s largest molybdenum reserves, is concerned that rapid growth of the mining industry is worsening pollution. The country’s exports of ferro-molybdenum have been falling, while consumption has been rising by around 10 per cent since atleast 2004 on account of the rising demand from steel producers.

“China is the major exporter of molybdenum products to the world and the introduction of a quota system will be the third move by the central government since the start of 2006 vis-a vis the molybdenum industry,’’ Australia’s Macquarie Bank said in a research note dated March 9.

“China’s ferro-molybdenum exports are expected to continue to fall because of rising domestic consumption and government’s policies,’’ Wu said. ``China’s falling exports are likely to add to a worldwide supply shortage.’’

China mined an estimated 41,000 tonne of molybdenum last year, second only to US, according to US Geological Survey data issued in January.

China’s consumption of ferro-molybdenum rose by 9 per cent to 30,383 tonne last year, accounting for 62 per cent of the production, while exports fell by 26 per cent to 18,598 tonne, compared with the previous year, according to Wu’s slide presentation.

Luanchuan, China’s largest producer of ferro- molybdenum, is involved in a joint project with U.S. Phelps Dodge Corp to invest in a $100 million 40,000 tonne-a-year molybdenum smelting plant in Luoyang.

The company, based in the central province of Henan, plans to raise 5 billion yuan ($647 million) by selling shares for the first time in Hong Kong, Wu said.

[schnucksche]

Mad About Molybdenum (Reuters) Apr. 1/07

By Susan Taylor

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Investors are taking a shine to a rare, silvery-white metal called molybdenum, but the durability of a market rally may hinge on looming export controls from China.

A surge in prices could benefit producers and the Toronto Stock Exchange, home to the world's largest publicly traded, pure-play molybdenum producer, Blue Pearl Mining (BLE.TO: Quote, Profile , Research), and a host of explorers.

Stocks related to the base metal, valued for its anti-corrosive and strengthening properties, have been soaring for weeks, underpinned by sturdy prices and buzz about a new fund that will invest in molybdenum and the companies that produce it.



Now, anticipation is building for news on a quota system from China, which could soon release a list of the molybdenum producers it will allow to export. Fewer than 30 names are expected, a Chinese industry group said, and exports could fall by 10 percent.

"It comes down to the Chinese," said Ian Nakamoto, director of research at MacDougall, MacDougall & MacTier. "They could make or break the market."

About 400 million pounds of molybdenum were produced last year, with tight supplies making the market sensitive to supply disruptions and contributing to price pressures.

China is a major supplier of the metal, used primarily as a hardening agent in the production of stainless steel. It contributed about 17 percent of the world supply in 2006 and topped the world in reserves, UBS said in a report.

Other key suppliers are the United States and South America, where molybdenum is a byproduct of copper mining.

The tough-to-pronounce metal moved into the mainstream amid a meteoric rise for shares in Toronto-based Blue Pearl.

Producers of the extremely hard metal make up only a small portion of the TSX materials sector, which is down about 1.4 percent over the past month. In contrast, Toronto-based Blue Pearl has climbed 37 percent.

Other producers and developers of what is being called a new mining "mega-star" have seen similar gains.



Moly Mines Ltd. (MOL.TO: Quote, Profile , Research), which has an Australian project that could contribute 20 million pounds annually in 2008-2009, has seen its stock surge more than 125 percent over the month.

Strapping stock jumps have also touched miners close to production. Roca Mines (ROK.V: Quote, Profile , Research) shares popped 100 percent this month and Adanac Molybdenum Corp. (AUA.V: Quote, Profile , Research) is up 74 percent.

Interest in molybdenum is also being piqued by resource guru Eric Sprott's planned Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. The fund, preparing for an IPO, will invest in miners and up to 50 percent of its capital directly in molybdenum.

Two weeks ago, tight supplies and uncertainty over China lifted molybdenum prices to 16-month highs of $79 a kilogram. Since then, it has slipped to about $75 per kilogram, 25 percent above the start of the year.

Investor interest has sparked an exploration revival among juniors and has senior miners revisiting old plans.

"You're seeing lots of companies coming out of the woodwork with historical molybdenum deposits that they're starting to promote," said Wellington West mining analyst Greg Huffman.

Still, he doesn't expect much new production over the next two years, though new deposits could be developed by 2010, or 2011, depending on prices.

Ten companies produce about 66 percent of global output, UBS said. Leaders Codelco of Chile and U.S.-based Phelps Dodge, recently acquired by Freeport-McMoRan, account for 33 percent. Other notable producers include Blue Pearl, Rio Tinto (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile , Research), Grupo Mexico (GMEXCOB.MX: Quote, Profile , Research), Jinduichenge and Antofagasta



(ANTO.L: Quote, Profile , Research).

Trading firm Shangxiang Minmetals predicted in late 2006 that the world molybdenum market will move from deficit to balance in 2007 with supply estimated at 445 million to 450 million pounds and demand at 445 million pounds.

Some analysts see it differently. "Commodities are here to stay for a while. (I see) sustainability for quite some time," said Nakamoto.


__._,_.___

[ruhtra]

Stand: 02. April 2007


Anm.: Auswirkungen (Hebel) auf die Einnahmenseite von Blue Pearl siehe Beitrag von Firsteven unter http://www.wallstreetonline.de/informer/community/thread.htm…

Ich stelle die “Aufforderung“ des allseits geschätzten Users MrRich, alias warren: „....aber tue mir doch bitte den gefallen und poste in deiner endlosen bescheidenheit noch 30 mal die von dir zusammengestrickte "faktensammlung"....“., an den Anfang, da W. auf eine Textstelle hinweist, die ich beachtet wissen möchte:

Folgender Text soll einen Überblick über die aktuellen Fakten zu Blue Pearl geben. Ich habe die Details aus Beiträgen von verschiedenen Usern im Bewertungs- u. Hauptthread übernommen, da meine Börsen-, Finanz-, Rohstoff- u. Englischkenntnisse (fachlich bezogen) nach wenigen Monaten “Lehrzeit“ nicht ausreichen, eigenständig eine fehlerfreie Übersicht zu erstellen. Ich betrachte diese selbstgewählte Fleißarbeit als Methode, mir in sehr kurzer Zeit umfassende Kenntnisse in einem Bereich anzueignen, zu dem ich anfangs nur schwer Zugang fand. Auch sehe ich das Ganze als Bringschuld für die selbstlose Hilfe u. Unterstützung, die ich in den vergangenen Monaten immer wieder erfahren habe. Statement Ende .
Wenden wir uns den Fakten zu :

Namen und Beiträge finden sich unter “Schlüsselbeiträge 1“ im Thread: "Faktenübersicht u. Schlüsselbeiträge".

Hinweis besonders für Einsteiger:
Ausführliche Erläuterungen rund um den Rohstoff “Molybdän“, sowie Begriffsbestimmungen (z.B. “Ressourcen“ u. “Reserven“, KGV, Optionen/Warrants) finden sich unter “Schlüsselbeiträge 1+2“!

Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman von Blue Pearl Mining am
8. Februar 2007 bei einer Online-Präsentation (informedinvestors.com)
http://www.informedinvestors.com/IIF/IIF_Forum.asp?ForumID=1…
http://www.bluepearl.ca/s/Home.asp

Geplante Produktion 2009 = 35 Millionen Pfund Moly



In den nächsten Monaten (Anm.: Wir erwarten sie ja in den nächsten Wochen) sollen neue Ressourcenschätzungen für Endako und TC präsentiert werden! Die Aufträge für die Neukalkulation wurden vergeben.
Es ist anzunehmen, dass die Ressourcen deutlich ausgeweitet werden können, da die damalige Kalkulation von sehr niedrigen Molybdänpreisen (3,50 $ Endako bzw. 5 $/Pfund bei Thompson Creek) ausgegangen war.

Endako (förd. Tagebau-Mine u. Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
Endako wurde 1965 gebaut, 1997 von Thompson Creek (TC) gekauft u. im September 2006 an BPM verkauft (Kaufpreis 575 Mio USD – bezahlt im Oktober 2006).
75% gehören BPM u. 25% Sojitz, einer großen japanischen Handelsgesellschaft.
Sojitz ist gleichzeitig Verkaufsagent für Japan und Teile von Asien.
Die Rohstoffe der Endako-Mine reichen für einen weiteren Abbau von 7 Jahren.
Die Berechnungen wurden sehr konservativ bei einem Moly-Preis von 3,50 $ durchgeführt. Die Reserven sollen bis zum 2. Quartal 2007 ebenfalls ganz erheblich ausgeweitet werden.
2007 werden 12,5 Mio Pfund produziert. BPM erhält davon 75%.

Thompson Creek (fördernde Tagebau-Mine)
Thompson Creek hatte 2005 (Geschäftsjahr endet im September) insgesamt 845 Mio $ Erlöse. In 2006 waren es 805 Mio (Anm.: Jahreszahl 2006 ergänzt. Erlöse sind nicht Gewinn - es gehen noch Kosten und evtl. Steuern ab). Alle Angaben in USD. Die durchschnittlichen Produktionskosten betrugen etwa 4,50$ pro Pfund (etwas unterschiedlich je nach Jahr).

Die Thompson-Creek-Mine ist das Juwel des Unternehmens.
Sie wurde 1983 von Standart Oil zum Preis von 350 Mio $ gebaut. Um diese Mine heute so aufzubauen, wäre ein Kapital von mehr als 1 Milliarde $ erforderlich.
Sie ist weltweit die zweitgrößte Moly-Tagebau-Mine.
Die derzeit nachgewiesenen Rohstoffe reichen für eine weiteren Abbau von 10 Jahren. Diese letzte Berechnung wurde bei einem Moly-Preisniveau von 5$ durchgeführt. Es ist die Aufgabe des Managements, ausgehend von einem Preis von 10$ eine neue Berechnung anzustellen und die nachgewiesenen und wirtschaftlich abbaubaren Rohstoffe entsprechend auszuweiten.
Anm.: Bei einem Moly-Preis von 5$ ist es nur begrenzt sinnvoll, große Mengen an taubem Gestein zu entfernen, um an die tiefer gelegenen Moly-Vorräte zu kommen. Bei einem Moly-Preis von 10$ (oder natürlich mehr) kann man viel mehr taubes Gestein wegräumen (also zusätzliche Kosten in Kauf nehmen) ohne in die Verlustzone zu gelangen. Die mit Gewinn abbaubaren Moly-Vorräte können zu diesem höheren Preis ganz erheblich ausgeweitet werden (siehe auch die sehr aufschlußreiche Grafik aus der Präsentation im ersten Posting im Präsentations-Thread.

Die neuen, höheren Werte sollen bis zum 2. Quartal 2007 ausgewiesen sein.
170 Mio Pounds Reserven
370 Mio Pounds Ressources
420 Mio Pounds inferred (vermutet/abgeleitet)
Es werden täglich 30.000 t abgebaut.
Für 2008 ist eine drastische Erhöhung auf 50.000 Tonnen pro Tag vorgesehen.

Davidson-Projekt (geplante Untertage-Mine)
Größtes Molybdänprojekt der Welt, welches noch nicht in Produktion ist!
Das Davidson-Projekt ist die größte Moly-Lagerstätte in Kanada.

Es sollen aus dem hochgradigen Teil der Lagerstätte 2000 t pro Tag abgebaut werden und nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung geschafft werden. Der Transport soll nicht auf der Schiene sondern mit LKW erfolgen, da dies kostengünstiger ist.
In Davidson wird Moly mit einer Konzentration von 0,36 - 0,38% abgebaut werden. Dies ist weltweit die höchste Konzentration. Die zweitgrößte Konzentration hat derzeit die Henderson-Mine mit 0,28%.

Topgehalte vom Davidson-Projekt
03.02.2006: 48.8 metres grading 0.46% MoS2
28.02.2006: 0.47% MoS2 over 39.6 metres
12.04.2006: 12.2-metre intersection grading 0.797% MoS2.
15.06.2006:
122-metre intersection grading 0.670% MoS2
15.3 metres grading 1.920% MoS2 (weltspitze)
15.2 metres grading 1.262% MoS2
137.2-metre intercept grading 0.521% MoS2

Anm.: Wir haben also seit Juni 2006 keine neuen Bohrergebnisse mehr über das Davidson-Projekt bekommen, da ja auf die FS verwiesen wurde. Insoweit kann man davon ausgehen, dass diese weiteren Ergebnisse im Rahmen der FS berücksichtigt werden. Lt. Auskunft der IR-Abteilung wird weiterhin gebohrt!

Kostenkalkulation für das Davidson-Projekt:
Das Erz muss nur aus dem Berg geholt und nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung gebracht werden. Von der Kostenseite her sind die Aufwendungen daher eher als gering anzusehen.
Ian McDonald kalkuliert hierfür Kosten in einer zweistelligen Millionenhöhe (lt. GMP ca. 55 Mio) ein. Anm.: Somit ist eine wichtige Frage geklärt, wie es finanziert wird, Davidson in Produktion zu bringen. Dieser überschaubare Betrag kann aus den laufenden Einnahmen bestritten werden. Nochmals zu Erinnerung: BPM verdient z.Zt. am Tag knapp 1,2 Mio US-Dollar!

Langeloth - Metallurgical Facility (Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
Langeloth verarbeitet 35 Mio Pfund Moly pro Jahr.
Die halbe Kapazität wird für die eigene Minenproduktion verwendet. Mit der anderen Hälfte wird für andere Minengesellschaften (Fremdröstung) geröstet. Zusätzlich kauft BPM am Markt Moly zur Weiterverarbeitung auf , auch wird Moly-Recycling durchgeführt.
Diese zusätzliche Auslastung hilft, die eigenen Produktionskosten pro Pfund zu senken.

Langeloth produziert das weltweit beste Ferro-Molybdän.

BPM ist der größte Moly-Produzent in den USA.

Das beste Molybdän (1/3 der Weltproduktion) kommt von reinen Moly-Herstellern Anm.: also nicht als Abfallprodukt der Kupfer-Produktion..
Reine Moly-Hersteller gibt es 4 in Amerika - BPM gehören 2 davon.

Es gibt 5 Röster in Nordamerika - BPM gehören 2 davon.
Aufgrund der hohen Moly-Qualität kann BPM auf den Marktpreis einen Aufschlag von 2-3% verlangen.

Langeloth wurde 1924 gebaut. Es befindet sich in ausgezeichnetem Zustand, da jeden September für 3 Wochen die Produktion für eine Generalüberholung unterbrochen wird. Es ist wahnsinnig schwierig eine derartige Verarbeitungsanlage neu genehmigt zu bekommen.

Blue Pearl produziert 5 % u. verarbeitet 9 % der Weltnachfrage!!!
Häufigste Nutzung: Pipelines (80.000 weitere km sind weltweit geplant), Autos und rostfreier Stahl.

Die Errichtung einer neuen Mine bis Produktionsbeginn kostet ca. 500 Mio Dollar. Dadurch ist es für neue Unternehmen extrem schwierig, überhaupt bis zum Stadium der Produktion zu kommen. Anm.: Blue Pearl hat mit der Übernahme von TC im September 2006 auf elegante Weise diese Klippe umschifft!

BPM hat derzeit ein Arbeitskapital von über 200 Mio Dollar!!!
Um die Finanzen des Unternehmens ist es also sehr gut bestellt.
Kreditraten können problemlos bezahlt werden.
Die Ressourcen sind “very large“, sollen also erheblich ausgeweitet werden und werden in den nächsten Monaten erscheinen!


Ian McDonald stellt fest:
Wir sind in einer sehr starken Position u. eines der führenden Unternehmen in der Industrie.


GMP-ANALYSE (wesentliche Aussagen) vom 13.02.2007

Die Aktie wird als BUY (kaufen) eingestuft
Kursziel = 11,50 CAD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2006e = 91 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2007e = 357 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2008e = 520 Mio USD

Molybdänpreis 2006 = 24,75 USD
Molybdänpreis 2007e = 24,75 USD
Molybdänpreis 2008e = 25,00 USD

Arbeitskapital = 200 Mio USD
Netto-Schulden = 312 Mio USD

Der Moly-Markt ist derzeit ausgeglichen.
Es wird erwartet, dass dies zumindest bis 2009 so bleibt.

Es wird erwartet, dass BPM nach derzeitigem Stand bis 2009 die Schulden komplett zurückzahlen wird.
Anm.:. Die Entwicklung des Moly-Preises – derzeit 30,25 $ - lässt erwarten, dass die Tilgung bereits Anfang 2008 abgeschlossen wird!

BPM ist ein einzigartiges Unternehmen, das vollkommen unterbewertet ist und von Analysten kaum verfolgt wird. Es ist signifikantes Potenzial zur Steigerung des Cash-Flow und der Finanzkraft vorhanden.

BPM hat sehr gutes Potenzial Cash-flow zu erzeugen.
Diese Beurteilung wird auch unterstützt durch die Tatsache, dass dem früheren Eigentümer von Thompson Creek bereits die Summe von 61,5 Mio Dollar aus den Einnahmen der letzten 9 Wochen des Jahres 2006 bezahlt werden konnten !!!

Gestützt auf unsere Vorhersage des Molybdänpreises, erwarten wir, dass BPM mehr als genügend Geld erwirtschaftet, um die insgesamt 125 Mio Dollar Kontingentzahlung zu bestreiten, und leicht die vorhandenen Schulden in Höhe von netto 312 Mio Dollar bis
2009 zu tilgen.
Anm.: Zur Kontingentzahlung: Ein nachträglicher Kaufpreis wird fällig, wenn der Molypreis in den Jahren 2008 bis 2010 entsprechend über 15 Dollar bleibt.
Schuldentilgung lt. Bedingungen eigentlich erst bis 2011 bzw. 2013!!!.

Weiterhin erwarten wir, dass BPM die Errichtung der Davidson-Mine - Kosten ca. 55 Mio Dollar - aus den laufenden Einnahmen bezahlen kann.

Mit der Aussicht, aus der Ausübung von Warrants weitere 200 Mio $ einzunehmen, könnten die Schulden bereits vor Ende 2009 abbezahlt werden.


RAHMENDATEN

Shares (voll verwässert) = 140.074.975
Arbeitskapital = 190 Mio $
Schulden = ca. 320 Mio $ (von ursprünglich 402 Mio – folglich 20% Schuldentilgung in den ersten 6 Monaten nach Übernahme von TC!!!)
Marktkapitalisierung (MK) = derzeit ca. 1.281 Mio CAD (Stand: 15.02.2007)
Reserven/Ressourcen (Annahme Sprott) = ca. 25 Mrd. USD
KGV = im niedrigen einstelligen Bereich
GEWINN = Beim dztg. Molypreis generiert BPM täglich ca. 1,2 Mio USD


BESITZ bzw. BESITZANTEILE

Endako-Mine = 75 %
Thomspon-Creek-Mine = 100 %
Langeloth = 100 %
Davidson-Vorkommen = 100 %


VERSCHIEDENES

Das Anlagevermögen ist in einem guten Zustand, da permanent investiert wird.

Die Reserven von Blue Pearl betragen v o r den neuen Schätzungen 742 Mio Pfund (incl. 246 Mio Pfund nachgewiesene u. vermutete Reserven).

Die Molyförderung ist wie folgt geplant:
2007: 21 Mio Pfund
2008: 27 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 2 Mio aus Davidson)
2009: 29 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 5 Mio aus Davidson)

Es ist auch zu berücksichtigen, dass ca. 8 Mio Pfund bei der Übernahme von TC verkaufsfertig auf Lager lagen. Der Verkauf wird mehr als einen Ausgleich für den Produktionsrückgang von 26 auf 21 Mio Pfund in 2007 darstellen!

Die UBS, eine der weltweit größten Banken, gewährte BPM zur Übernahme von TC einen Kredit über knapp 500 Mio CAD. Anm.: 30 UBS-Mitarbeiter haben den Deal und den Kredit bearbeitet und geprüft!).

Die Sojitz-Gruppe (japan. Handelsgesellschaft, die 25% an Endako hält) als Partner für den asiatischen Raum.

Sprott (kanad. Investmenthaus) hat sich schon vor der TC-Übernahme im Sept. 20006 mit 13% an Blue Pearl beteiligt!

Sprott bereitet einen Moly-Fonds mit einem Grundkapital von 75 Mio CAD vor (Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation), der bereits im April an der Toronto Stock Exchange gelistet werden soll. Investiert wird in das Metall selber (bis zu 50%), sowie in Aktien von Moly-Explorern und Produzenten. Als Berater wird Blue Pearl fungieren! Des Weiteren sollen Kauf u. Verkauf durch BPM erfolgen.!!!
Anm.: Sprotts Uran-Fonds (aufgelegt 2005) hält 4,2 Mio Pfund U380. Durchschnittlicher Kaufpreis lag bei 32 USD – aktuell notiert Uran bei ca. 90 USD!

Sprott sieht für Blue Pearl bei einer möglichen Verdopplung der Reserven u. Minenlaufzeiten und bei einem Moly-Preis über 20 USD ein Kursziel von 28 CAD (lt. “RSR“)!!!

17.6% aller Blue Pearl-Aktien sind in den Händen von 13 institutionellen Anlegern (Stand 15.02.07). Das Management hält 4% (unter Einbeziehung der Warrants 6%) der Blue Pearl- Aktien.

Kein politisches Risiko: Projekte/Minen ausschließlich in USA/Kanada.

Blue Pearl hat nicht nur die Ressourcen u. Röstkapazitäten von TC übernommen, sondern auch erfahrene Mitarbeiter, die z.Zt. in der gesamten Minenindustrie sehr rar sind.


KREDITTILGUNG

Die Höhe der Kredittilgung an UBS ist wie folgt vorgesehen:
Tilgung 2007: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2008: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2009: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2010: 50 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2011: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2012: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Die Tilgung erfolgt jeweils vierteljährlich zu gleichen Raten.

Somit sind in 2007 jeweils vierteljährl. 18,75 Mio US-Dollar an Tilgung zu bezahlen.
Infos zum Zinssatz auf www.sedar.com unter “material documents“ vom 06.11.2006.

Blue Pearl zahlte im März 2007 62 Mio Dollar Kreditschulden für die Thompson-Creek-Übernahme vorzeitig zurück!!!


QUARTALSBERICHT Q4/06 vom 26.03.2007
Die wesentlichen Aussagen wurden im Text eingearbeitet.
Finanztechnische Details des Berichts werden von chartex im Beitrag 97681 erläutert:
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…


Der erwartete “NEWSFLOW“

Ressourcenbericht Davidson (1. Teil der FS, folglich v o r der Machbareitsstudie)
II. Quartal 2007 (Anm.: evtl. kurzfristig).

Machbarkeitsstudie “FS“ (Feasibility-Study) Davidson II. Quartal 2007.

Ressourcenschätzungen für Endako und Tompson Creek. II. Quartal 2007.

Machbarkeitsstudie für Endako (Super-Pit-Mine) voraussichtlich 2. Halbjahr 2007.

Quartalsbericht für Q1/07 am 10. oder 11. Mai 2007.

Mögliche Beteiligung von Sojitz an TC oder Davidson (würde Cash-flow im 3-stelligen Millionenbereich bedeuten!!!).

Amex-Listing (USA) in den nächsten Monaten.

Weitere Einschätzungen (Coverage) von Investmenthäusern.


WICHTIGE INFORMATIONSQUELLEN

http://www.bluepearl.ca (Homepage)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/pres_02-07/slide1.htm (Präsentation)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/Factsheet-Feb21-2007.pdf (Ressourcenübersicht)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/s/FinancialsAndReports.asp?ReportID=… (Finanzbericht 2006) http://www.eao.gov.bc.ca/epic/output/documents/p262/11725280…
(Davidson 02/2007 – Umweltbehörde)
http://www.molyseek.com
http://www.imoa.info
http://www.findarticles.com
http://www.adanacmoly.com (Moly-Tageschart)
http://www1.molymines.com/documents/4/11/MOL_About_2Page_200… (Grafik: Expl.-Vergleich S. 32)
http://www.sedar.com
http://www.stockwatch.com
http://www.stockhouse.com
http://www.ccnmatthews.com
http://www.canadianinsider.com
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/
http://www.robtv.com
http://www.basemetals.com/search.aspx?search=molybdenum
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7011
http://www.damstahl.dk/Admin/Public/Download.aspx?file=Files… (Moly-Bericht)
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=22727
http://www.kaiserbottomfish.com/s/Expresses.asp?ReportID=96 (Moly-Produktion)
http://www.cim.org/committees/stdsapprnov14.pdf (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/molybdenum/… (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://www.cim.org/mainEn.cfm
http://www.infomine.com/Investment/HistoricalCharts/ShowChar… (Moly-Charts)
http://www.gcitrading.com/german/converter.htm (RT-Währungsrechner)
http://chart4.onvista.de/i_kl.html?VOL=0&DISPLAY=1&ID_NOTATI… (Währungschart CAD/EUR)


Hinweis auf anstehende Veranstaltungen/Berichte und mögl. kursrelevante Ereignisse

10. Mai 2007: Hauptversammlung (HV) von BPM:
Neben der Veröffentlichung des Quartalsberichts für Q1/07 erfolgt die Abstimmung über die angedachte Namensänderung der Gesellschaft in “Thompson Creek Metals“.

April 2007: Sprotts Moly-Fonds soll an der Toronto Stock Exchange gelistet werden.

26. April 2007: Börsengang von China Molybdenum (ehemals Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum / einer der weltweit größten Moly-Produzenten): 1. Handelstag (IPO) an der Börse Hong Kong. Konsortialbanken = Morgan Stanley u. UBS .
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…
(verschiedene Beiträge zum Thema)

April 2007 ff: Die molybezogenen Ereignisse/Maßnahmen in China (Börsengang, Exportzoll, Ausfuhrregelung etc) könnten den Moly-Preis weiter “anheizen“.[/b]


Es gilt wie immer: Dies ist keine Kaufempfehlung.

BG ruhtra

[Firsteven]

Molybdenum producer markets growth story to IPO investors
By Anette Jönsson | 2 April 2007

The company plans to set aside around $150 million for cornerstone investors from its $500 million share sale.

The name doesn't exactly role off the tongue, but if investors can get past that small problem, they will find that China Molybdenum, or China Moly for short, is actually quite a simple story – a mining company with one mine that produces a specialty metal which is in high demand by China's growing stainless steel industry.

And the one mine isn't just any old mine, but one of the largest pure molybdenum mines in the world with 498,000 tonnes of reserves. Much of the global supply of molybdenum is otherwise derived as a byproduct of copper processing, making companies with a primary focus on this metal something of a rarity.

The same mine also contains 506,000 tonnes of tungsten reserves, making China Moly the second largest owner of tungsten reserves in the world. This metal, which is a byproduct from molybdenum processing, currently accounts for less than 1% of China Moly's revenues but will become an increasingly important growth driver once the company completes the construction of its own tungsten recovery facilities by early 2008, sources say.



The company will also use the IPO proceeds to increase both the ore output from its mine and the processing capacity of various molybdenum products further down the value chain. Consequently it is being marketed as a growth story with a potential for 44% growth in net profit this year and 15% in 2008, according to a syndicate research report. This comes on top of 31% profit growth last year and 319% in 2005.

"This company has the necessary scale in its molybdenum production and it is in the right place with demand in China increasing rapidly," one observer says.

"There is also an M&A theme as the company is looking to buy up mines and mining rights amid further industry consolidation," adds another.

Molybdenum is used primarily to harden various forms of steel, making it more resistant to corrosion and improving its strength at high temperatures. Steel mixed with molybdenum has a variety of applications within the construction, shipbuilding, auto, defense and oil industries among others. What makes it especially valuable though, is the fact that it has few substitutes.

According to a Roskill Molybdenum Economics report, quoted in the pre-deal research, China's consumption of molybdenum grew at a CAGR of 17% between 2000 and 2005 which was 7.7 times the growth rate in the US, 5.3 times that in the US and 3.5 times the growth rate in Japan.

Tungsten too is used as a steel alloy and is a metal which should be familiar to Hong Kong investors after Hunan Nonferrous Metals, one of China's leading integrated producers of tungsten, completed its own IPO in March last year. Even those who didn't pay much attention to the IPO will be aware of HNF's spectacular 73% gain on its first day of trading. Since then the share price has continued to head higher and even after some volatility over the past month it closed at HK$5.06 on Friday – more than three times its IPO price of HK$1.65.

No doubt, investors will be hoping for similar medium-term gains for China Moly, which is currently pre-marketing an initial public offering of more than $500 million through Morgan Stanley and UBS. Notably, Morgan Stanley was also one of the bookrunners for HNF's IPO together with BOC International.

The molybdenum producer has already attracted the attention of a number of tycoons and corporate investors. According to sources, the company plans to sell around $150 million worth of shares to seven or eight such cornerstone investors who in return for a guaranteed allocation will commit to a 12-month lockup.

The final list of cornerstone investors has yet to be agreed upon, but sources say they will include many of the usual players who tend to participate in Hong Kong listings of large Mainland companies, including China Life Insurance, Henderson Land Development chairman Lee Shau Kee, Dickson Concepts chairman Dickson Poon, and either Temasek or GIC, both of which are investment companies set up by the Singapore government.

China Moly is selling 22.7% of its issued share capital in the form of 1.08 billion new H-shares. There will also be a greenshoe of between 10% and 15%, with the final size to be determined before the launch of the formal institutional roadshow on April 9. The price range will also be set at that same time.

As with all H-share IPOs, the company will also need to transfer shares equivalent of 10% of the new share issue to the National Social Security Fund. This transaction will be done outside the actual share offer but the shares will count towards the free-float, bringing it up to the required 25%. The deal will have the usual 90-10 split between institutional and retail investors with a standard clawback mechanism.

The eventual IPO price is expected to value the company somewhere in between fellow specialty metals producer HNF, which currently trades at about 15.5 times projected 2007 earnings, and base metals producers like Jiangxi Copper and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco), which tend to trade at an average forward P/E multiple of about eight times.

Base metals aren't in the same short supply as specialty metals, however, and the irreplaceable nature of both molybdenum and tungsten in steel production suggest they should trade at a premium to the former group, one observer notes.

HNF has a larger total tungsten reserves than China Moly at 525,000 tonnes, but when taking account of the fact that it only owns 79% of its main mine, China Moly's attributable reserve is actually 16% greater than HNF's 436,000 tonnes. China Moly's estimated profit is also about two times that of its listed rival. Balancing out that somewhat, HNF's tungsten business is more developed than China Moly's which was started only in the past year. HNF also has exposure to lead and zinc, making it slightly more diversified.

China Moly could potentially also be compared to Toronto-listed which is the only pure molybdenum producer that is publicly listed and currently fetches a 2007 P/E multiple of about 8.3 times. Here too, analysts argued that China Moly deserves a premium, because of its four times larger reserves (which are also of higher grade), its longer mine life at 46 years versus less than 10 years, and its lower cash costs.

Using a valuation based on enterprise value to molybdenum reserves, a syndicate research report estimates Blue Pearl's valuation at $4.56 per pound, compared with a proposed range of only $2.48 to $3.16/lb for China Moly (due to its larger reserves), which could result in some investors viewing the latter as a value play in comparison with its Canadian peer.

At the end of last year, China Moly's Sandaozhuang mine processed 9.9 million tonnes of ore per annum at its six processing plants, which was double its 2004 output. While this is expected to remain constant over the next two years, the company is forecast to raise its extraction of molybdenum concentrate to about 28,000 tonnes this year and 33,000 tonnes in 2008 from 21,410 tonnes in 2006, representing a three-year CAGR of 49%.

Starting from this year, the company will sell none of its molybdenum ore but will use it internally to produce other products down the value chain, such as molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum.

Last year, the company derived about 40% of its revenues from ferromolybdenum, which is its most refined product and about 25% each from molybdenum oxide and molybdenum concentrate (the rest came from its tungsten business, the selling of ore and "other" things).

Two years down the line, ferromolybdenum's contribution is expected to have increased to 55%, while molybdenum oxide will fall to 9% and molybdenum concentrate to 19%. The sale of tungsten concentrate should pick up to 4%-5% of the total from less than 1% now when it sends all the leftovers from its molybdenum processing to a 40% owned-associate that extracts the tungsten, the analysts project.

"We believe China Moly is evolving from an upstream material producer into a fully integrated molybdenum product producer," one report notes, and adds: "increasing downstream processing helps to create a more stable profit profile."

Like other mining and metals companies, China Moly's profits are highly dependant on the price of the metal it sells and as seen in recent years this can fluctuate substantially. Molybdenum prices multiplied to an average of $33.90/lb in 2005 (after peaking at above $40/lb) from $5/lb in 2003 as the global roasting capacity was unable to match the demand from the steel industry. The forced closure of small, polluting mines in China in 2005 added further to the supply pressure.

Last year the price came down to an average of $25.11/lb, and in the first quarter this year it has hovered at $25-30/lb. The pre-deal research projects a further drop of the average price to $22.5/lb this year and $20/lb in 2008, but notes that China Moly's cash costs of only $3-4/lb should lead to strong profits and cash flow nevertheless.

The price development at the start of this year also suggest that the price forecast may be too conservative.

The final price on the China Moly IPO is expected to be fixed around April 18-19, while the trading debut is currently scheduled for the middle of the week of April 23.





Copyright FinanceAsia.com Ltd., a subsidiary of Haymarket Media Ltd

[Firsteven]

#99104 von chartex 02.04.07 03:14:24 Beitrag Nr.: 28.616.438
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben


Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 28613828 von ChinaAktionaer am 01.04.07 20:40:46
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Zitat:Hallo Chartex,

würdest Du evt. mal eine deiner liebgwordenen Analysen zum jetzigen Kursverlauf erstellen ? Ich hatte mich ja scheinbar mit dem Ausstieg meiner Tradingposition (Erwarteter Kursrückgang zu 10 CAD) verschätzt.

Wie sieht es denn aus Charttechnischer Sicht aus ? Was sagen die Indikatoren ? Wäre echt nett, wenn Du hier antworten würdest.

Gruss

ChinaAktionaer
-------------------------------------

Hallo China,

für eine ausführliche Analyse ist es mir einfach zu spät. Morgen um 9 muss ich wieder vor meinen Bildschirmen sitzen. Nur soviel: Die Indikatoren stehen gut und die Erwartung aus meinem Posting vom 27.3. vormittags (geschrieben, als der Kurs gerade eine kleine Delle nach unten erhielt) halte ich weiterhin aufrecht. Bis jetzt wurde ich nicht enttäuscht.

Hier noch mal diese Posting:
Es ist des öfteren zu beobachten, dass vor der angekündigten Verkündung bedeutsamer (positiver) News der Kurs einer Aktie ansteigt, da viele neue Investoren einsteigen. Auf diesen Zug springen gerne auch sehr kurzfristig orientiert Trader auf und verkaufen die Aktie dann wieder, sobald die News heraus ist. Ob dann der Kurs etwas steigt oder etwas sinkt, das hängt davon ab, wie die News vom Markt aufgenommen wird.
Ist die News gut und entspricht den Erwartungen, dann wird der Kurs üblicherweise etwas sinken (das ist leider die verquere Börsenlogik des "sell on good news") aufgrund der Verkäufe der Trader. Ist die News deutlich besser als die Erwartungen, dann könnten so viele neue Anleger beschliessen zu investieren, sodass der Verkauf der Trader aufgefangen wird und sogar der Kurs nach oben geht.

Dass ein kleiner Abverkauf bei Blue Pearl stattfinden könnte, war jedem Leser des Thread bekannt. Es wurde ja über diesen Punkt bereits diskutiert.
Der Inhalt der News über die Jahreszahlen ist nun durchaus auf 2 Arten zu interpretieren. Auf einen allerersten, oberflächlichen und durch wenig Sachkenntnis getrübten Blick sieht man nur, dass das Unternehmen Verlust ausweist.
Nur wer bereit ist, sich etwas näher mit den Zahlen zu befassen, kann erkennen, dass er Aktien von einem richtigen "Goldesel" (manche sprechen auch von einer Gelddruckmaschine) besitzt.
Wie der Papier-Verlust zustande kam und welche Gewinnaussichten sich für das laufende Jahr ergeben, kann im Thread in den letzten Tagen nachgelesen werden.

Nach einem kleinen Abverkauf (etwa 4%) hat sich der Kurs gestern in Kanada schnell wieder etwas erholt und als stabil erwiesen. Die meisten Anleger haben also wohl begriffen, dass der Papierverlust keinerlei Bedeutung hat.

Was wir im Moment in Deutschland erleben ist der typische Abverkauf von Tradern, verstärkt auch noch dadurch, dass ein kleiner Börsenbrief sein sehr kurzfristiges Kursziel erreicht sieht und zum Ausstieg geblasen hat. Wenn alle diese Trader-Lemminge gleichzeitig zur Tür hinaus wollen, dann muss der Kurs kurzfristig sinken. Eine deutliche Erholung ist im Augenblick auch schon wieder feststellbar.

Für den langfristig orientierten Anleger sind diese kleinen Schwankungen ohne Bedeutung. Die vorgelegten Zahlen (Quelle: MD&A vom 26.3.2007 auf www.sedar.com) haben nunmehr bewiesen, wie es mit den laufenden Kosten (durchschnittliche Produktionskosten 6,28 $ pro Pfund - durchschnittlicher Erlös 25,74 $ je Pfund) aussieht. Bei einer geplanten Produktionsmenge von 21 Mio Pfund ergibt sich daraus ganz grob ein Mehrerlös von über 400 Mio US-$. Davon gehen natürlich noch kleinere Kostenanteile (z.B. für Zinsen, Verwaltung usw.) ab, sowie die Ertragsteuern. Der Langfristanleger kann also beruhigt darauf warten, dass der Markt den Kurs der Aktie auf ein faires Niveau anhebt. Das momentane Kursniveau mit einem KGV in der Nähe von 3 ist jedenfalls lachhaft niedrig.

Eine kurzfristige Aussage zu treffen, ist hingegen immer mit großer Ungewissheit verbunden. Ich persönlich erwarte keine stärkere Korrektur sondern eher einige Tage in welchen es mal ein wenig rauf, mal ein wenig runter geht, bevor der Kurs wieder deutlich anzieht.
Falls das Vorliegen eines nunmehr geprüften Jahresabschlußes allerdings die Voraussetzung für den Einstieg von einem (oder mehrerer) größeren Fond war, dann könnte es auch unerwartet schnell weiter nach oben gehen. Oder der Molypreis steigt weiter .....
---------------------------

Noch ganz kurz zum Thema Übernahme eines Explorers:
Nach meiner Ansicht hat Ian ganz klar zum Ausdruck gebracht, dass eine Übernahme unter normalen Umständen ausgeschlossen ist.
Wenn die neuen Zahlen zu den Rohstoffen aller 3 Minen vorliegen, dürfte BPM (nach meiner Auffassung) bei 1500-2000 Mio Pfund Moly im Boden liegen. Warum sollte man da noch weiter zukaufen.
Die Erweiterung von Endako zu einer Super-Pit-Mine ist angedacht und wird mehrere hundert Mio Dollar kosten (die finanziert werden müssen).
Bei aller Ertragskraft von BPM wäre es nach meiner Ansicht einfach unvernünftig, sich zusätzlich mit noch einmal einer ähnlichen Summe zu belasten, um eine 4. Mine in Betrieb zu bringen.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Structural Changes in Molybdenum Demand
by
Denis Battrum
marketfriendly, inc.
March 27, 2007
0510152025303519791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005US MOLYBDENUM OXIDE($ / LB)
MOLYBDENUM OXIDE PRICES0510152025303540Aug-02Feb-03Aug-03Feb-04Aug-04Feb-05Aug-05Feb-06Aug-06Feb-07 EUROPE USA
The oxide price had stabilized in the mid-20s range for most of 2006, and the question is whether this is the new market equilibrium or whether molybdenum prices might slip back to earlier “historical” levels.
Molybdenum is undergoing significant structural change on both the supply and demand sides which makes a return to earlier price structures unlikely.
© marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
Certain supply side conditions which contributed to depressed pricing in the 1980s and 1990s no longer exist.
On June 11, 1987, the Globe and Mail carried a headline; “Chile – no choice but to produce.” Indeed Chile and China were maximizing production looking for hard currency in order to pay for engineering services and materiel to build their economies. Overproduction was rampant. At times in the 1980s and 1990s, inventories had risen to 9-12 months’ supply.
Now, however, we have been through a period of high copper and molybdenum prices, and yet inventories and molybdenum production from many by-product producers is declining:
CHILE MOLYBDENUM PRODUCTION(MILLION POUNDS)5060708090100110200220032004200520062007e
In Chile’s case, falling head grades at their largest producer – a mine that has been operating since World War I – have resulted in a loss of 10 million pounds of production last year and possibly another 11 million pounds this year. So while the company continues to maximize copper output, molybdenum output is falling.
This is a radical departure from the earlier reality of the molybdenum industry.
China’s molybdenum mine production is falling as well. One estimate has it down by about a quarter between 2002 and 2006. One entire historic mining district appears absent from the news. Production figures out of China are notoriously unreliable, but it appears as though the country wants to retain more of what they produce: China is in the process of adding export tariffs and non-tariff restrictions to molybdenum exports. A spokesman from the Chinese molybdenum producer JDC was quoted in March as saying that he expected a ”…quotas system that would further restrict exports out from the country”.
Certainly the stellar gains in stainless and carbon steelmaking in China suggest they’ll need every pound of molybdenum they can get: China has become the world's largest stainless steel producer with its output exceeding five millions tons in 2006, up 60 percent from 2005. Stainless steel capacity there is on track to reach 12 million tonnes by the end of 2007. China’s raw steel production was 418.8 million tonnes in 2006, up 18.5 percent from 2005 and just over one third the world total. In the first two months of
© marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
this year alone, the output of steel products totaled 79 million tonnes – 25 percent higher year on year.
Canada also has seen significant erosion of its molybdenum production: Several mines have closed. The Highland Valley Copper mine is forecasting an equilibrium level of annual production around 3 million pounds – down from 10.7 million pounds in 2004. For Canada as a whole, the expected 2007 molybdenum production represents just a third of what it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
1012141618202224200220032004200520062007eCANADA MOLYBDENUM PRODUCTION(MILLION POUNDS)
While the chronic oversupply and inventory accumulation that characterized the latter part of the last century has been rationalized (through some very hard times for producers and their employees), demand for molybdenum has continued to rise. Since the mid-1990s, the annual consumption of molybdenum has increased by about 200 million pounds.
These production losses and the demand increase represent the opportunity for new production.
Looking at the demand side, molybdenum has a market niche in stainless steels and in carbon steels. There are other applications – catalysts for example – but steel is the main driver. Many of these steels were on the drawing boards or in a field-trial stage, but not in substantial use while molybdenum languished at “historical” levels.
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Stainless and duplex steels
WORLD STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION(MILLION TONNES)1517192123252729200120022003200420052006
Stainless steel first; this is roughly a 28 million tonne market. We are seeing advancement of so-called duplex stainless steels with more molybdenum and less nickel. Some examples of duplex stainless steels are shown below. Right now, the most common duplex stainless grade produced is 2205, nominally containing 40 percent more molybdenum than the corresponding austenitic stainless – grade 316. (The actual compositions vary somewhat with producer.)
COMPOSITION OF DUPLEX STAINLESS STEELS
UNS Number
Duplex Grades
Type
C
Mn
P
S
Si
Cr
Ni
Mo
S31200
0.030
2.00
0.045
0.030
1.00
24.0-26.0
5.5-6.5
1.20-2.00
S31260
0.03
1.00
0.030
0.030
0.75
24.0-26.0
5.5-7.5
2.5-3.5
S32001
0.030
4.0-6.0
0.040
0.030
1.00
19.5-21.5
1.00-3.00
0.60
S32205
2205
0.030
2.00
0.030
0.020
1.00
22.0-23.0
4.5-6.5
3.0-3.5
S32304
2304
0.030
2.50
0.040
0.030
1.00
21.5-24.5
3.0-5.5
0.05-0.60
S32520
0.030
1.50
0.035
0.020
0.80
24.0-26.0
5.5-8.0
3.0-4.0
S32550
255
0.04
1.50
0.040
0.030
1.00
24.0-27.0
4.5-6.5
2.9-3.9
S32750
2507
0.030
1.20
0.035
0.020
0.80
24.0-26.0
6.0-8.0
3.0-5.0
S32760
0.030
1.00
0.030
0.010
1.00
24.0-26.0
6.0-8.0
3.0-4.0
S32900
329
0.06
1.00
0.040
0.030
0.75
23.0-28.0
2.5-5.5
1.0-2.0
Weight percent. “Type” is the common name, not a trademark. 329 is an AISI designation
Commercial production of these duplex steels is still evolving: Baosteel, for example, China’s largest producer, first produced hot rolled 2205 duplex stainless steel strip only this January.
Although the use of higher-molybdenum duplex grades in a given application is not driven solely by the intrinsic value of contained nickel and molybdenum, the recent increases in nickel prices have helped tilt things this way. (Use of the duplex steels involves weight and strength considerations and knowledge of the chemical conditions surrounding the application, etc.) Below are two tables showing the combined intrinsic
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value of contained nickel and molybdenum for some common austenitic- and duplex stainless grades at different metals prices:
COMPARISON OF DUPLEX
AND COMMON AUSTENITIC STAINLESS
Ni + Mo VALUE
GRADE
Ni
Mo
PER TONNE
304
10
0
$4,409
316
13
2.3
$7,000
2304
4.3
0.3
$2,061
2205
5
3.2
$3,968
2507
7
4
$5,291
Nickel $20 / pound
Molybdenum $25 / pound
COMPARISON OF DUPLEX
AND COMMON AUSTENITIC STAINLESS
Ni + Mo VALUE
GRADE
Ni
Mo
PER TONNE
304
10
0
$1,323
316
13
2.3
$2,734
2304
4.3
0.3
$701
2205
5
3.2
$2,072
2507
7
4
$2,690
Nickel $6 / pound
Molybdenum $20 / pound
The potential substitution of a duplex stainless like 2304 for austenitic stainless 304 is an interesting one because of the relatively larger market for 304. Molybdenum-bearing stainless steels now represent only 7-10% of the total stainless steel market. Some project examples from Europe follow. The U.S. hasn’t yet embraced the substitution to the extent Europe has.
Remember, this is essentially a 0.3 percent Mo product (a “lean” duplex stainless steel) being used in applications that have never used molybdenum-bearing stainless before:
• A stainless steel silo for wheat flour to be fabricated by Desarrollo Agroindustrial del Silo SL in Barcelona, Spain: 500 tonnes of lean duplex sheet to be supplied during 2007 for this project. There was an overall weight savings of 200 tons realized due to the superior strength to weight ratio of the new steel.
• Also replacing 304 stainless with lean duplex stainless steel, the tank maker Emypro, S.A. will furnish 22 tanks for bulk-liquid storage at the Port of Barcelona in 2007. The weight saving is 350 tonnes on a 2,430 tonne project.
• A 66 unit tank farm at the Port of Amsterdam for 2007: The Port has allocated nine hectares in its Westpoort zone to three Dutch companies for the production of biodiesel, bioethanol and biogas from recycled organic waste. The operation will produce 25 million cubic meters of biogas, partially to help fuel on-site
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processes. 66 tanks with a total capacity of 84,000 cubic meters will use 2,000 tonnes of lean duplex stainless steel in place of 304 stainless.
These duplex steels are still relatively new: Only in March 2006, were duplex steels certified, for example, in drinking water applications:
15 March 2006
“NSF International (formerly the National Sanitation Foundation) has announced that NSF/ANSI Standard 61, drinking water system components - health effects, has been expanded to allow additional types of stainless steel as acceptable materials for products used in drinking water applications. NSF/ANSI Standard 61 is the American National Standard that ensures products that come into contact with drinking water do not contribute levels of contaminants that could cause adverse human health effects such as cancer, liver and kidney damage, nervous system disorders, damage to the immune system and birth defects. The NSF/ANSI Standard verifies that stainless steels are highly resistant to leaching of contaminates into potable water. Duplex stainless steel grades 2205, 2304, 2101 and 2003, have been incorporated into the standard. These are in addition to types 304, 304L, 316 and 316L, which have previously been accepted under NSF/ANSI Standard 61.”
Space doesn’t allow a full examination of the applications for all the duplex stainless steels, but the super duplex stainless steels, those significantly richer in molybdenum, are increasingly specified under corrosive conditions: Desalination, a relatively new demand driver for molybdenum, is just one example:
Main desalination techniques are the multi-stage flash (MSF) process (most common for desalination in large plants, 4,000 cubic meters/day and up, found mostly in the Persian Gulf); the multi-effect distillation (MED) process, and reverse osmosis (RO), the fastest-growing.
• Grade 2205 duplex steel was first selected for evaporators to be installed in the Melittah MSF plant in Libya in 2004. Currently three MSF-type desalination plants are under construction using this combination: Taweelah B, Jebel Ali L2, and Ras Abu Fontas B2 – all to be completed in 2007-08.
• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will begin production in June of a heavy crude oil-fired thermal power generation and desalination plant in Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia. The reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant will have capacity to produce 216,000 cubic meters of desalinated drinking water per day. Grade 2507 duplex stainless steel is specified for high-pressure piping and the energy recovery units.
• SIDEM of France is using a duplex 2304/2205 combination in the world’s largest MED-type desalination plant to date, Al Hidd in Bahrain, to be completed this year. Outokumpu, a major duplex stainless producer,
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pioneered this DualDuplex™ concept for desalination using two different types of duplex stainless steel in the structures of evaporators – the 2205 grade for parts exposed to the more corrosive conditions, and a lean duplex like 2304 for parts elsewhere.
The South Australia government is working with BHP Billiton on building the state's first desalination plant, on Spencer Gulf. It will be used to supply water to the Olympic Dam uranium mine as well as to supplement water supplies to upper Spencer Gulf towns and the Eyre Peninsula. Desalination is required for an increasing number of mining operations worldwide.
Australia just announced 17 coastal locations for potential power generation, which would seem likely candidates for desalination. Spain reportedly plans to build 30 new desalination plants in the next few years and Spanish stainless steel producer, Tubinox, reported this year that it will double capacity by 2010, to “take advantage of the growing desalination industry”.
The reduced availability of process water around the world and a requirement for desalination at an increasing number of mining operations highlights the added difficulty, time and cost to bring new mineral production online, and the competitive advantage of resources located in areas where there is water.
Carbon steels
Carbon steel production in 2006 was over 1.2 billion tonnes. This is 40 times the size of the stainless market and molybdenum is beginning to establish a foothold in carbon steels through the development of Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS). These revolutionary developments in steelmaking are allowing steel to recapture ground lost to aluminum and plastics over decades. Given the size of this segment relative to stainless, the potential for increased molybdenum consumption is truly extraordinary.
In this category, we see an increasing number of applications for molybdenum:
One is pipeline steels containing in the order of 0.25 percent molybdenum. Engineering studies have shown significant project cost reduction using advanced high strength steels in pipelines, even with the increased unit price of the product. The reduced wall thickness allowed by these new steels requires less steel overall for the pipeline, reduces transportation costs, and lowers construction costs. Tremendous logistical value can accrue as well when you consider that some of the legacy pipeline pipe is so heavy that each 40-ft. piece (“joint”) requires a separate truck –132 truckloads per running mile!
Relative material weight savings for various API grades of steel pipe are shown below, based on a hypothetical 100,000 tonne pipeline project.
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RELATIVE PIPE WEIGHT020406080100120X70X80X100X120KILOTONNE
Currently, molybdenum demand in this application is limited by the availability of capacity: The vast majority of the world’s pipe mills have yet to upgrade to the newer grades like X100 and X120, which contain higher levels of molybdenum.
2007 WORLD LINE PIPE CAPACITY051015202530354045X56X60X65X70X80X100X120%
Nippon Steel, for example, is so convinced that X120 pipe is the product of the future, they’re setting up a separate division to handle it, and adding compressed gas cylinder production in the same material.
North American auto producers are increasing their usage of advanced high strength steels each year under a program that will see the material requirement expand relative to that of legacy steels by a factor of 4 times over the next ten years.
Advanced high strength steels give their cars the 5-star crash safety test ratings that have become so important in automotive marketing. The new steels have made it possible to achieve better safety structures without adding weight.
The same goes for Europe where all carmakers want high EuroNCAP crash test ratings. And after this push to satisfy consumer demand for safer cars, the European Union's renewed focus on reducing vehicle carbon dioxide emissions is again highlighting the weight-saving potential of AHSS.
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Arthur D. Little notes that this weight reduction can improve fuel economy about 5 percent and will cost only 212 additional euros per car. The consulting firm claims the new steels will yield more fuel savings than several powertrain technologies: variable valve timing, turbocharging and cylinder deactivation.
Weight reduction also allows lighter brakes and less powerful engines.
Automotive sheet steels in Asia are increasingly being upgraded to AHSS following the European and US lead. In January-February 2007, China produced 1.38 million automobiles units, an increase of 21.5 percent year on year. In 2006, China produced 7.28 million units, an increase of 27.6 percent over 2005.
NUCOR has demonstrated the ability to produce an advanced high-strength steel sheet, called 590 Mpa dual phase steel, from scrap.
Power generation
The IEA predicts that by 2030, with newly accommodative policy from various governments, nuclear generating capacity will have grown to 519 gigawatts (GW), from 368 GW now – a 41% increase. Nuclear power plants contain a number of heavy components. A partial materials list calculated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is shown below. (This list does not include over 100 pumps, 9-18,000 valves and about 130 miles of pipe, per plant.)
GENERATION III+ NUCLEAR REACTOR COMPONENTS
ELEMENT
NUMBER
PER
PLANT
UNIT
WEIGHT
(TONNES)
REACTOR PRESSURE VESSEL
1
1,200
STEAM GENERATOR
2
730
MOISTURE SEPARATOR REHEATER
4
440
STEAM TURBINE GENERATORS
3
550
LOW PRESSURE TURBINE
3
250
GENERATOR STATOR
1
500
GENERATOR ROTOR
1
250
CONDENSERS
3
660
NOTES:
1. Not all types of reactors use all these components. Data cover these designs: General Electric (GE) Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR); Toshiba-Version, GE-Design; Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR); Westinghouse Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor (AP1000), and the Framatome ANP (Areva).
2. Each Gen III unit will use either 2 steam generators or 2-4 moisture separator reheaters
3. Each steam turbine generator would have up to 3 condensers
4. Quantities are listed as maximum per plant
© marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
There are a large number of molybdenum-bearing alloys used in nuclear plant components and piping. For example, there are more than a dozen condenser tube alloys, containing between 4-5% molybdenum on average.
Nuclear power has become a demand driver for molybdenum even in the absence of new construction. 316 stainless pipe (2-2.5% Mo), for example, is being specified for replacement piping for fluids running over 200oC, and since late 2005, the use of duplex stainless steel S32205 (3-3.5% Mo) has been approved for replacement of regular mild steel pipe (no molybdenum) in cooling water intake where any kind of corrosion is evident – including microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) from fresh water.
Generation IV reactor technology indicates an enhanced molybdenum utilization due to the hotter and more corrosive conditions under which these plants are designed to operate; and should combined hydrogen production be achieved with these facilities, still more molybdenum usage is indicated.
The majority of power plant component weight – heat recovery steam generators, turbines and pipe – show commonality in nuclear power, oil- or coal-based generation. Hence, molybdenum offers investors a natural energy hedge – regardless of the energy choice society makes for its electricity generation.
Catalysts
There is extraordinary new growth occurring in catalyst demand for the production of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD). Achieving the reduced sulfur specification of less than 15 ppm more than doubles the use of catalyst in the same refinery. About 95% of refiners use either a nickel-molybdenum catalyst or a cobalt-molybdenum catalyst for sulfur removal in the ULSD application.
ULSD is the single largest environmental mandate since the removal of lead from gasoline 25 years ago, and the full impact on molybdenum demand has yet to be felt:
Since October 15, 2006, most of the diesel fuel sold in stations in Canada and the United States has been ULSD. The first diesel engines specifically designed for ULSD fuel are in 2007 vehicles. The EPA is mandating a June 2007 500 ppm sulfur cap for off-road diesels, and then a June 2010 deadline for all highway trucks and off-road diesels (except locomotive and marine, and small refiners) to conform to the 15 ppm sulfur limit. Two years later, the ULSD requirement will extend to locomotive and marine diesels, and by June 2014 the ULSD cap will apply to everyone.
The overall diesel demand growth rate in the last three years has been about double that of gasoline: roughly 3.5-4% per year.
The number of diesel-fueled cars and light trucks sold in the US has grown consistently in the last 10 years and is up 80% in the last six. Global demand for diesel light vehicles is expected to nearly double over the next decade, increasing to 29 million unit sales according to J.D. Power and Associates. Global Insight predicts
© marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
diesels will expand market share even in Europe, where there is already significant market penetration.
The U.S. EIA has calculated that if gasoline demand grows by 1% a year for the next 25 years, the United States will need to build 16 new 200,000 barrel per day (b/d) refineries just to maintain the present level of gasoline production and imports. But if instead U.S. motorists bought advanced diesel cars, only six new refineries would be needed.
Military
The military driver has been accelerating. It is noteworthy that China’s recent increase in molybdenum export tariffs and other non-tariff restrictions coincided with the announcement of a serious new 5-year defense spending plan: President Hu Jintao has called for the building of a “strong and modern navy” and generally the central party plans eventually to double military spending as a percentage of GNP (which is itself growing at 10 percent a year).
The realigned spending on the navy seems likely to follow US research and development of a 0.5 percent molybdenum steel for hulls and superstructure. The NAVSEA Warfare Center in West Bethesda has demonstrated weight savings, increased speed and increased ballistic protection using these steels.
Rearmament in response to China’s move has Japan (among other things) replacing its air force: Japan will buy 250-300 new military aircraft, with a decision this summer regarding the supplier. The choice is between the Eurofighter, at about $126 million each, and the F-22 at about $200 million each. The augmented requirement for molybdenum-containing superalloys for the jet turbines appears locked in.
Armor plate production is at a high level and looks to increase. The armor can contain molybdenum at levels comparable to X-100 pipeline steel, around 0.3 percent Mo, and some US plate producers plan to introduce a 0.5% Mo product. The armor plate industry refers to it as Ultra High Hardness Steel.
What the media refer to as “bunker buster” bombs, called penetrators in the industry, are becoming increasingly popular, and they use molybdenum in the casings. Traditional penetrator materials, like SAE 4340 steel (0.2-0.3% Mo), are being replaced with, newer, higher molybdenum materials, such as AF-1410, HY-180, and Aermet-100. (See table below.)
PENETRATOR CASINGS
Grade
Mo (%)
SAE 4340
0.2-0.3
AF-1410
1
Aermet - 100
1.2
Hy-180
1
AF-1410 is a 1,500 Mpa steel. If we used the same designation as line pipe, it would be like an X-220. © marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
There are other military applications for molybdenum in steels, alloys and lubricants too numerous to cover here, but what’s important to note is that governments worldwide are rebuilding their armed forces and using an argument for domestic “security” to justify spending above and beyond traditional defense programs. This enhanced re-armament drives an increased demand for molybdenum – at a level distinctly heightened relative to the period of “historical pricing” in question.
_________
© marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]


http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/March27_2007.pdf

[Firsteven]

wieder ein super Beitrag von Chartex - die gehören hier einfach rein! Danke nochmal für deine tollen Beiträge


Hallo beyond,

deine Ausführungen bezüglich der Abwehr einer möglichen Übernahme klingen im Grundsatz und in der Theorie plausibel.
Für die Praxis sehe ich in deinem Gedankenfang jedoch ein sehr gravierendes Problem:

Explorer mit sehr niedriger Marktkapitalisierung (die für BPM derzeit bezahlbar wäre) mit interessanten Vorkommen gibt es in akzeptabler geographischer Entfernung einige. Soweit mir diese bekannt sind (bitte belehrt mich eines Besseren, wenn ich Wichtiges übersehen habe) handelt es sich aber durchwegs um ein sehr frühes Explorationsstadium.
Dies bedeutet, dass bis zu einer Feasibility-Studie noch sehr viele Löcher zu bohren und Bohrproben zu analysieren und auszuwerten sind. Nach aller mir zugänglichen Erfahrung bedeutet das, dass minimal 2-3 Jahre ins Land gehen (vermutlich sogar mehr), bis so eine Studie zustande kommen kann.
Da hilft auch ein großzügiger finanzieller Einsatz nicht wesentlich weiter. Man betrachte nur das Verrinnen der Zeit, was die Feasibility-Studie für Davidson angeht (und da schienen die Bohrdaten und Analysen bereits im letzten Sommer im wesentlichen komplett gewesen zu sein).
Wenn die Werterhöhung der BPM-Aktie durch die Feasibility-Studie eines übernommenen Explorers allerdings erst 2010 eintritt, dann hat das aber keine so wesentliche Auswirkung mehr auf den Kurs.
Unter der Voraussetzung eines gleichbleibenden Molypreises sollte die Marktkapitalisierung von BPM bis dahin leicht im Bereich um 6 Milliarden Dollar liegen. Da spielt es keine wesentliche Rolle, ob nochmal 500 Mio für eine weitere Mine im Feasibility-Stadium dazukommen.

Einen Explorer zu übernehmen, der bereits eine fertige Feasibility-Studie hat, oder gar in wenigen Monaten zu produzieren beginnt, das verbietet sich aus finanziellen Gründen.

Für meine Begriffe ist Ian auf dem richtigen Weg, wenn er darauf setzt, den Aktienkurs durch Maßnahmen nach oben zu treiben, die wenig kosten unt trotzdem großen Nutzen bringen:
1) Ressourcenausweitung für Davidson
2) Feasibility-Studie für Davidson
3) Produktionsaufnahme für Davidson
4) Reservenausweitung für Thompson Creek und Verlängerung der Minenlebensdauer
5) Reservenausweitung für Endako und Verlängerung der Minenlebensdauer
6) Feasibility-Studie für eine riesige Super-Open-Pit-Mine in Endako
7) Investitionen um die Super-Open-Pit-Mine zu realisieren.

Die Punkte 1, 2, 4 und 5 verursachen keine wesentlichen Kosten und können innerhalb weniger Monate abgeschlossen sein. Die Wertsteigerung des Unternehmens ist enorm.
Punkt 3, die Produktionsaufnahme für Davidson verursacht voraussichtlich 50-60 Mio Kosten und wird etwa ein Jahr dauern, steigert den Aktienkurs jedoch bereits ab Vorliegen der Genehmigungen und dem Produktionsbeschluß.
Punkt 6 sollte bis Ende des Jahres durch sein, ebenfalls ohne großen Kostenaufwand.
Der Punkt 7 allerdings wird mit mehreren hundert Millionen Dollar an Kosten einige finanzielle Klimmzüge erfordern und wird wohl kaum vor Ablauf von 2 Jahren zu schaffen sein.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

da man an den fundamentalen Daten momentan nicht rütteln kann, tauchen hier aktuell natürlich wieder Fragen nach Davidson auf.

Ich persönlich hatte bei Wayne Cheveldayoff nach dem Termin für die Ressourcen nachgefragt und als Antwort erhalten, dass man die abschliessende Ressourcenauswertung von der Consultingfirma noch nicht bekommen hat.

Aber einmal kurz nachgedacht:
Da sich die Ressourcenstudie verzögert hat und die abschliessende Machbarkeitsstudie noch aussteht, Sojitz sich an Davidson beteiligen will (oder muß, sonst keine Super-Pit bei Endako) würde jeder von uns die Nachrichten im Verbund an den Markt geben.

Ian hat bei seinem letztem Interview nocheinmal auf die Beteiligung von Sojitz hingewiesen. Die Pläne für die Mine sind schon eingereicht und müssen noch von den Behörden genehmigt werden. Eventuelle Auflagen sollen alle erfüllt werden (separate Strasse, Abwasserentsorgung, usw.). Selbst wenn ma jetzt die Ressourcenzahlen hätte, macht es keinen Sinn diese separat an den Markt zu geben.

Lieber eine Supernews, als News, bei denen die Besserwisser Haare in der Suppe suchen könnten.

Aber generell: Alle Planungen sind vorsichtshalber ohne Davidson erstellt worden. Heißt: Die Basis der aktuellen Kursziele kann sich durch Davidson nur verbessern, aber nicht verschlechtern.

Sollte es wegen dem Umweltschutz oder was auch immer zu Problemen mit Davidson kommen, dann gibt es in der Nähe von Endako reichlich Liegenschaften, die man für unter 100 Mio. CAD übernehmen kann, wenn man denn will. Davidson ist eh nur die Sahne auf dem Kuchen. 5 Mio. IB pro Jahr macht zwar bei einem Preis von 30$ auch 150 Mio.$, aber bei Endako und TC ergibt das für 2009 fast eine Milliarde $.

Also: Nicht verunsichern lassen. Selbst negative Nachrichten zu Davidson sind schon eingepreist, da Davidson nicht in den aktuellen Planzahlen enthalten ist.

Sollte Davidson wirklich ausfallen, was ich mir nicht vorstellen kann, dann muß ich mein aktuelles Kursziel von über 40 Euro bis Mitte 2008 auf 30 bis 40 Euro reduzieren.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Geniales Posting - 100% Zustimmung!


Zitat:Sagt mal...gibts einen vernünftigen Grund dass BPM immer weitersteigen sollte...?
-------------------------------------
Hallo nugget,

ich baue als Diskussionsgrundlage hier jetzt einmal ein Negativszenario auf, ein Szenario, bei dem ALLES, aber auch wircklich ALLES was nur schiefgehen kann, auch tatsächlich schiefgeht:

- Die Resourcen von Davidson werden nicht ausgeweitet, sondern bleiben auf dem Stand von Anfang 2006.
- Die Feasibility-Studie für Davidson ergibt, dass ein Abbau nicht wirtschaftlich durchführbar ist.
- Für Endako können keine höheren Resourcen oder Reserven nachgewiesen werden. Die Einrichtung einer Super-Open-Pit-Mine ist nicht möglich. Die Minenlaufzeit bleibt bei 6 Jahren.
- Für Thompson Creek können keine höheren Resourcen oder Reserven nachgewiesen werden. Die Minenlaufzeit bleibt bei 10 Jahren.
- Der Molypreis fällt morgen zurück auf 24,75.

So, negativ genug? Oder fällt dir noch eine denkbare Negativ-Steigerung ein?.

Unter diesen zutiefst negativen Annahmen und extrem konservativer Betrachtungsweise errechnet GMP in der Analyse einen Gewinn nach Steuern von 259 Mio US-Dollar (Ebidta 520 Mio US-Dollar), bzw. etwa 300 Mio CAD (Ebidta etwa 600 Mio CAD) für 2008.
Die ergibt ein KGV von etwa 4 zum heutigen Kurs.

Dem in Kürze an die Börse kommenden chinesischen Moly-Producer wird ein KGV von 10-15 zugestanden. Eine Aufstellung der KGVs verschiedener Minengesellschaften, die ich letzte Woche gemacht habe, hat ein durchschnittliches KGV von ca. 12 ergeben.

Da Blue Pearl einer der Branchenführer ist und keinerlei politisches Risiko hat (Produktion in Kanada und USA) müsste man eigentlich sogar noch mit einem Aufschlag rechnen.

Um zu einem fairen Wert zu kommen, müsste die Blue-Pearl-Aktie also noch auf das 2 bis 3-fache steigen - wohlgemerkt, unter diesen zutiefst negativen Annahmen. Die gesamte Phantasie auf künftige Gewinnsteigerungen ist da noch nicht mit drin.

Aus meiner Sicht ist damit die Frage beantwortet, warum BPM weiter steigen sollte, und warum die momentane Konsolidierung sich in einer sanften Seitwärts-Aufwärts-Bewegung abspielt, und nicht in den bisherigen wilden Kursausschlägen.

Mit der Vorlage von geprüften Jahreszahlen ist Blue Pearl erwachsen geworden, hat bewiesen, dass das Unternehmen ein Blue Chip im Minensektor ist, hat bewiesen, dass riesige Gewinne erwirtschaftet werden können.

Die momentane leicht Aufwärtsbewegung (trotz der täglichen neuen Allzeithochs) ist das typische sanfte Steigen eines unterbewerteten, soliden, großen Unternehmens.
Die Aktie "schleicht" sich ganz ohne News unspektakulär nach oben. Einen steilen Anstieg wird es erst wieder geben, wenn entsprechende, positive News anstehen (und da hat Ian McDonald nach meiner Überzeugung noch einen ganzen Sack voll zu verteilen).

----------

Ganz anderes Thema:
Nachdem die letzten Zahlen zu Leerverkäufen bereits 2 Wochen alt sind, ist es sehr schwierig, eine Prognose über den aktuellen Stand zu treffen. Da die Leerverkäufer allerdings häufig fern aller Logik zu agieren scheinen, würde es mich nicht überraschen, wenn die Zahlen sich immer noch auf ähnlich hohem Niveau bewegen würden (in 2-3 Tagen wissen wir mehr).
Es ist aus meiner Sicht jedoch nicht sinnvoll, aus einer hohen Zahl leerverkaufter Aktien auf einen zukünftig sinkenden Kurs schliessen zu wollen.
Meine Überlegung geht einen anderen Weg (und betrachtet den augenblicklichen Kurs als Funktion der Käufe und Verkäufe der vorhergehenden Tage/Wochen:
Durch die leerverkauften Aktien steht der momentane Kurs nicht höher. Und diese leerverkauften Aktien müssen wieder zurückgekauft werden. Wenn eine Aktie also, wie Blue Pearl augenblicklich, auf Allzeithoch steht, und eine riesige Zahl von leerverkauften Aktien im Markt ist, dann besteht eine hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Kurs explosiv steigen könnte. Auf alle Fälle jedoch stützen diese leerverkauften Aktien den Kurs nach unten, da bei sinkendem Kurs das Kaufinteresse der Leerverkäufer (Stichwort Gewinnmitnahmen) stark ansteigt.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[sloopjohn]

Für die, die es eventuell noch nicht wissen:
Es gibt seit gestern auf sedar den kompletten Annual Report 2006,

http://www.sedar.com/DisplayCompanyDocuments.do?lang=EN&issu…

auf dessen Basis wohl immer mehr langfristig orientierte Großinvestoren, die in der Lage sind, derartige Berichte richtig zu lesen und zu interpretieren, in die Perle einsteigen und damit die eigentlichen Verursacher der gegenwärtigen Kursentwicklung sind. War ja nur eine Frage der Zeit.

Schöne Aussichten

sloop

[Firsteven]

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/…


Molybdenum Commentary Ryan's Notes

With little moly business taking place, prices held steady

in the US and Europe. Some mills reportedly still have

buying to do for the second half of April and May.

European mills were able to purchase FeMo at $73-74

per kg. Chinese suppliers reportedly were offering

FeMo at $68-69 per kg for shipment, but few traders

were willing to risk buying material that would not

arrive until mid-May. In the US, FeMo sales were

made at just under $31.50 per lb for truckloads and at

$32 for small quantities. A European consumer reported

that he was able to purchase two trucks of oxide at

$28.25 per lb from the trade. Chinese producers reportedly

are sticking to an oxide price of $28.50.

The Chinese government is expected to grant the first

batch of moly export licenses this week, according

market sources who attended a moly conference in

Nanjing last month. More than 50 producers and trading

companies submitted applications to the government,

but not all will be allowed to export. Some companies

are likely to be refused licenses because they

have not been able to document that their facilities

meet environmental regulations. License applicants

had to submit a certificate of adequate pollution control

dated no later than Mar. 20. Only 15-30 companies will

receive licenses, sources predict. Western traders do

not expect to see a flood of material from China even

if licenses are given to more than 30 companies. "I just

can't see the Chinese allowing a lot of exports after all

this effort to limit shipments. Also, there really doesn't

seem to be that much excess material out there," said a

trader.








Noble Metals Forum Update

With over 70 delegates already registered for the Ryan's

Notes Noble Metals Forum at the New York Athletic

Club in New York City on June 5, anyone interested in

learning what the future holds for moly, columbium and/or

vanadium will not want to miss out on the event. To register

and add your company's name to the list below, simply

call 914-738-7386 or visit www.ryansnotes.com/conferences.

htm. Companies that will be attending the Noble

Metals Forum include:

Adams Metals Ltd. • Adanac Molybdenum Corp. • American Flux

and Metal • Barex Resources, Inc. • Bear Metallurgical Company

• Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. • CBMM-Cia. Brasileira de Metalurgia

e Mineracao • CCMA, LLC • Century Alloys, Inc. • Chaparral

Steel • Chem-Met Co., The • Claymont Steel • CMC COMETALS

• Comsup Commodities, Inc. • Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. •

EAC Corp. • Enco International, Inc. • F.W. Hempel

Metallurgical GmbH • Golden Phoenix Resources, Inc. • Haynes

International, Inc. • Hi-Temp Specialty Metals, Inc. • HOC

Metals, Inc. • Hudson Metals Corp. • Iamgold Corp. • Idaho

General Mines, Inc. • Infineum USA LP • JDC America's Office •

Joe H. Smith Co., Inc. • Kennecott Molybdenum Co. • Lyonnell

Chemical Company • Metallurg Vanadium Corp. • Mitsubishi

Corporation • Moly Mines Ltd. • Powmet, Inc. • Reference Metals

Co., Inc. • Roca Mines • Sovereign Recycling International •

Strategic Minerals Corp. • Taenada Kogyo Co., Ltd. • Thompson

Creek Metals Company • Titan Metal Powders • Traxys North

America • Tremond Alloys & Metals Corp. • U.S. Energy Corp. •

US Geological Survey • Veritas Alloys & Metals • Wescast

Industries Inc. • Western Troy Capital Resources • Wogen

Resources Ltd.

[schnucksche]

With little moly business taking place, prices held steady

in the US and Europe. Some mills reportedly still have

buying to do for the second half of April and May.

European mills were able to purchase FeMo at $73-74

per kg. Chinese suppliers reportedly were offering

FeMo at $68-69 per kg for shipment, but few traders

were willing to risk buying material that would not

arrive until mid-May. In the US, FeMo sales were

made at just under $31.50 per lb for truckloads and at

$32 for small quantities. A European consumer reported

that he was able to purchase two trucks of oxide at

$28.25 per lb from the trade. Chinese producers reportedly

are sticking to an oxide price of $28.50.

The Chinese government is expected to grant the first

batch of moly export licenses this week, according

market sources who attended a moly conference in

Nanjing last month. More than 50 producers and trading

companies submitted applications to the government,

but not all will be allowed to export. Some companies

are likely to be refused licenses because they

have not been able to document that their facilities

meet environmental regulations. License applicants

had to submit a certificate of adequate pollution control

dated no later than Mar. 20. Only 15-30 companies will

receive licenses, sources predict. Western traders do

not expect to see a flood of material from China even

if licenses are given to more than 30 companies. "I just

can't see the Chinese allowing a lot of exports after all

this effort to limit shipments. Also, there really doesn't

seem to be that much excess material out there," said a

trader.


__._,_.___

[Firsteven]

meine Güte - Ian will aber mit aller Gewalt von den Schulden runter! Und Sprott legt 12 USD auf den Tisch, d.h. drunter wird es wohl nicht mehr gehen!!!


APRIL 3, 2007 - 16:41 ET

Sprott Asset Management (SAM) Announces the Launch of the Sprott Global Equity Fund

Sylvain Ratelle, CFA, MBA Joins SAM as Investment Strategist

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 3, 2007) - Sprott Asset Management (SAM), Portfolio Advisor to Sprott Funds is pleased to announce the upcoming launch of the SPROTT GLOBAL EQUITY FUND (Fund) on April 25th, 2007.

The new Fund will provide greater options for Canadians looking to increase their exposure to global markets. SAM recognizes the need for depth of choice across various asset classes and global markets for advisors and their clients.

The Fund, an open-ended mutual fund trust, will launch at $10 per unit and with a minimum initial investment requirement of $5,000. It is expected to be eligible for registered tax plans and will be managed by the SAM Investment Team.

The primary objective of the Fund will be to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in equity and equity-related securities of companies around the world. It will use a proprietary quantitative model to identify medium to large capitalization companies with the potential for capital appreciation over the long-term. The Fund will invest primarily in global companies with a minimum market capitalization at the time of investment of approximately $1 billion U.S. The Fund may also choose other permitted investments, such as cash, when considered appropriate and may, subject to regulatory approval, short sell up to a maximum of 20%. The portfolio will be broadly diversified with geographical exposure across the globe.

Eric Sprott, Chief Executive Officer of Sprott Asset Management Inc. (SAM) is pleased to announce that Sylvain Ratelle, CFA, MBA has joined the SAM investment team as Investment Strategist.

Sylvain has accumulated 20 years of experience in the investment industry while managing sizable equity portfolios in mutual funds, pension money and private client assets for divisions of various global asset management groups including Franklin Templeton Investments, State Street Global Advisors and BMO/Harris.

In 1999, Sylvain created and used his own proprietary quantitative model to successfully uncover exciting investment opportunities worldwide for global equity portfolios. He has been a disciplined portfolio manager over the years with a long-term approach. In his capacity at Sprott Asset Management, Sylvain will use his proprietary quantitative model to assist the SAM investment team with the new Sprott Global Equity Fund.

We believe Sylvain will bring a new dynamic to our Investment Management team as we continue to expand our product offerings and provide a form of diversification for investors via a global platform.

Sylvain completed his bachelor\'s degree in business administration, finance and economics at the HEC business school of University of Montreal in 1987. He earned his CFA designation in 1994 and his MBA, finance and international management in 1998, also from HEC.

Sprott Asset Management Inc. (www.sprott.com) is a Toronto based private company with over $4.65 billion in assets under management primarily for institutions, endowments and high net worth individuals. Sprott Asset Management Inc. is the investment manager of the Sprott Funds. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual Funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

[Firsteven]

http://www.yuonsec.com/

IPOs in April 2007
Upcoming IPOs expected in April 2007:

Company name: Est. listing date: Est. IPO price:
(HKD per shr) Est. offering size:
(HKD)
Country Garden 20 April 4.18 - 5.38 12.9Billion
Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group 26 April - 6 Billion China Citic Bank 27 April - 20 Billion


We provide loans at preferential rates for margin clients who subscribe for new share issues through eIPO.

Please call 2534-1821 for details or to obtain eIPO application forms.

Updated from 2007-04-03 15:00

[blue-storm]

April 3, 2007

Blue Pearl Announces $36 Million Financing


TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 3, 2007) - Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE)(TSX:BLE.WT.A)(FRANKFURT:A6R), the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, today announced that it has arranged a private placement of 3,000,000 common shares at a price of $12.00 per common share to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation for total proceeds of $36 million. The private placement is expected to close on April 19, 2007. Subsequent to the closing, Blue Pearl will reduce its debt (First Lien Credit Facility) by $36 million. The private placement is subject to definitive documentation, completion of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation's proposed initial public offering and receipt of all required regulatory approvals and consents, including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

About Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.

Blue Pearl is the world's fifth-largest molybdenum producer. The company in October 2006 purchased the Thompson Creek open-pit molybdenum mine and mill in Idaho, 75% of the Endako open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility in northern British Columbia, and a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania. Blue Pearl is also developing the Davidson high-grade underground molybdenum project near Smithers, B.C. The company has more than 700 employees. Its head office is in Toronto, Ontario. It also has executive offices in Denver, Colorado (including sales and marketing) and Vancouver, British Columbia. More information is available at www.bluepearl.ca.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains "forward-looking information" which may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the future financial or operating performance of Blue Pearl, its subsidiaries and its projects, and the anticipated closing of the private placement more particularly described herein. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates", or "believes" or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved.

Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Blue Pearl and/or its subsidiaries to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others, general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the anticipated benefits of the acquisition not occurring in the expected time frame or at all; the actual results of current exploration activities; actual results of reclamation activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future prices of molybdenum; possible variations of ore grade or recovery rates; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or delays in financing or in the completion of development or construction activities, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Blue Pearl's annual information form dated March 26, 2007 which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Although Blue Pearl has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and Blue Pearl disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Blue Pearl undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Shares outstanding: 108,284,659

[chris3011]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.651.022 von blue-storm am 04.04.07 06:54:35

sind die angaben in USD oder CAD? ich nehme mal an CAD

[SupermarioWin]

Wenn das USD sind, dann hätte sich Sprott zu knapp 14 CAD eingekauft

Wenn man jetzt noch davon ausgeht, dass Sprott mind. 100% Performance haben will...

[Firsteven]

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/…


Sprott Molybdenum Fund

Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering
/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWS WIRE SERVICES OR DISSEMINATION IN THE
UNITED STATES/
TORONTO, April 4 /CNW/ - Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation (the
"Corporation") is pleased to announce that it and a syndicate of agents led by
GMP Securities L.P. and including Cormark Securities Inc., Canaccord Capital
Corporation, Fort House Inc., TD Securities Inc. and Dundee Securities
Corporation (the "Agents") have agreed to pricing terms of the Corporation's
initial public offering (the "Offering"). A total of 36 million Units at a
price of $5.00 per Unit for gross proceeds of $180,000,000 will be offered for
sale. Each Unit shall consist of one common share in the capital of the
Corporation and one-half of one common share purchase warrant (each whole
warrant, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder to acquire, subject to
adjustment in certain circumstances, one common share of the Corporation at a
price of $7.50 at any time on or prior to the close of business on the date
that is 24 months from the closing of the Offering. The closing of the
Offering is scheduled to occur on or about April 16, 2007.
The Agents will also be granted an over-allotment option to purchase up
to an additional 5% of the aggregate number of Units sold at the closing of
the Offering, exercisable at any time prior to 5:00 p.m. EDT on the 30th day
following closing of the Offering.
Sprott Asset Management Inc. has acquired 3,976,000 common shares of the
Corporation on a private placement basis at a price of $4.90 per share for
aggregate proceeds to the Corporation of approximately $19,482,400, which
amount, upon closing of the Offering, will represent approximately 9.94
percent of the issued and outstanding shares of the Corporation.
The Corporation will use substantially all of the net proceeds of the
Offering to acquire securities of private and public companies that explore
for, mine and/or process molybdenum and to acquire physical molybdenum.
The final prospectus and the Offering of the Units are subject to
regulatory approvals including certain securities commissions in Canada and
the Toronto Stock Exchange.
No securities regulatory authority has either approved or disapproved of
the contents of this news release. The securities being offered have not been
and will not be offered or sold in the United States or to, or for the account
or benefit of, a "U.S. person", as such term is defined in Regulation S under
the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. This press release is
for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a
solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities in the United States.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this release are "forward-looking statements" which
reflect Sprott Asset Management Inc.'s (the "Manager"), the manager of the
Corporation, expectations regarding the Corporation's future growth, supply
and demand for the molybdenum assets, any appreciation in the value of the
molybdenum assets, results of operations, performance and business prospects
and opportunities. Such forward-looking statements reflect management's
current beliefs and are based on information currently available to
management. Forward-looking statements involve significant risks and
uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ
materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Some
of these risks, uncertainties and other factors are described in the
Corporation's prospectus under the heading "Risk Factors". Although the
forward-looking statements contained in this release are based upon what the
Corporation and the Manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither the
Corporation nor the Manager can assure investors that actual results will be
consistent with these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking
statements are made as of the date of this release, and neither the
Corporation nor the Manager assumes any obligation to update or revise them to
reflect new events or circumstances.

[Firsteven]

Sprott Moly fund priced at $5
Snapshot: AUA BLE CUU GVI LGO MOL OTL PBX ROK TCR


Sprott sets price for molybdenum fund offering
Wed Apr 4, 2007 3:34pm ET


OTTAWA, April 4 (Reuters) - Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. announced prices for its highly anticipated initial public offering on Wednesday, but stocks related to the rare base metal had only a muted reaction following an extended recent rally.

The fund will invest in both miners and molybdenum, which is valued for its strengthening and anti-corrosive properties.

Anticipation of the fund helped fuel a recent rise in stocks linked to molybdenum, as did tight supplies and the expectation of a quota system from China, a major global supplier.

Sprott said the fund will sell 36 million units for C$5 each, raising gross proceeds of C$180 million ($155 million).

Each unit consists of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Warrant holders can buy one common share for C$7.50 in a two-year period from the close of the offering, expected on April 16.
A syndicate of agents will get an overallotment option to buy up to 5 percent of the total units sold on closing.

Sprott Asset Management, which previously launched Uranium Participation Corp. (U.TO: Quote, Profile , Research), has acquired 3.9 million common shares of the molybdenum fund, representing a 9.94 percent stake.

After the pricing announcement, shares in Blue Pearl Mining (BLE.TO: Quote, Profile , Research) added 4 Canadian cents to C$13.11 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Blue Pearl is the world's biggest pure-play, publicly traded molybdenum producer.

Moly Mines (MOL.TO: Quote, Profile , Research), which is developing a molybdenum project in Australia, added 12 Canadian cents, or 3 percent, to C$3.85.

Juniors such as Roca Mines (ROK.V: Quote, Profile , Research) slipped 3 Canadian cents to C$2.85, while Adanac Molybdenum (AUA.V: Quote, Profile , Research) dropped 12 Canadian cents, or 5 percent, to C$2.33.

($1=$1.16 Canadian)

© Reuters 2007.

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

habe gerade mein Mail über die Kapitalerhöhung von 36 Mio CAD als Einstiegsgeschenk für den Molyfond von Eric Sprott gelesen. Hiermit signalisiert man dem Markt, dass die Molymania weitergehen wird. Unser Rückschlagspotential, falls es nach der Nachricht überhaupt noch eines geben sollte, liegt bei schlappen 9% vom ATH. Bei welcher Aktie mit solchen Gewinnaussichten gibt es das den noch? Ich kenne keine.

Diese ca. 31 Mio. USD dienen für die weitere Reduzierung des Kredits.

Als nächstes erwarte ich eine Mail mit der Ankündigung, dass der Fond 2 Mio. IB Molybdän für 28 USD bei BluePearl kauft und dort für 2% Jahresgebühr, bis zu dem erwarteten Preissprung bei Moly, einlagert.

Danach wird im Mai, pünktlich zur Hauptversammlung, die nächste Meldung kommen, dass man den Kredit unplanmässig um weitere 130 Mio. USD reduzieren will.

Mit der dann noch planmäßigen Zahlung liegen wir dann zum Ende des zweiten Quartals bei noch 170 Mio. USD Kredit. Eventuell zahlt man noch etwas mehr ab, mann hatte ja Mitte Mai noch 135 USD. Kassenbestand. Wahrscheinlich geht man sogar bis auf unter 150 Mio. USD herunter. Das liest sich besser.

Dieser Rest sollte dann im 3. Quartal durch das laufende Geschäft und durch die Sojitzbeteiligung an Davidson bezahlt werden.

Meine Prognose: Ende des 3. Quartals ist dann TC, ehemals BluePearl, schuldenfrei.

Die 100 Mio. USD Zahlung an den Alteigentümer, wegen des hohen Molypreises, kann dann aus den Einnahmen des 4. Quartals gezahlt werden.

Ab 2008 kann dann in die Erstellung der Super-Pit bei Endako gegangen werden.

Es sieht gut aus.

therefore

[Firsteven]

wenn du mich fragst wussten die großen adressen gestern schon das sprott einsteigt und deshalb ist der kurs so angezogen

Hallo sniper666,

das Sprott mit einem 75 MIo. CAD Fond auch bei BluePearl einsteigen wird, wußten wir alle schon seit einiger Zeit.

Und zwar will er bei BluePearl physisches Moly kaufen (ca. 25% des Fondvolumens) und Aktien von Molyfirmen. Ferner will er das gekaufte Molybdän zu einer Jahresgebühr von 2% bei BluePearl einlagern. Ian führt diese Geschäfte durch.

Nun hat man sich zusammen den nächsten unerwarteten Schachzug ausgedacht und den Ei9nstieg bei BluePearl über eine Kapitalerhöhung durchgeführt.

Dies hat für Sprott den Charme, dass er die Aktien 8% unter dem heute aktuellen Kurs erhält und für BluePearl, dass man den lästigen Kredit schneller abbezahlen kann.

Aus alle diesen Ereignissen und dem letzten Interview von Ian, kann man schliessen, dass man schon an einer weiteren Übernahme arbeitet. ich tippe, dass man wieder eine nicht börsennotierte Firma übernehmen will. Dies hat sich ja bei der TC-Übernahme mehr als bezahlt gemacht. Unter anderm fördert diese Mine oder die Minen Kupfer mit Molybdän als Beiprodukt.

Nun kenne ich die kanadische Minenszene, insbesondere die Kunden von BluePearl, nicht so genau, dass ich hier einen Tip abgeben könnte. Ich denke aber, dass die ausgewählte Company ihr Molybdän momentan bei BluePearl aufbereiten lässt.

Hiermit ist die Spekulation eröffnet. Ich bitte um weitere Ideen.

therefore

[Firsteven]

News
Stahlindustrie weiter aufwärts (Helaba)

Frankfurt (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Entwicklung des internationalen Stahlmarktes ist maßgeblich vom Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft abhängig, so die Analysten der Helaba.
Dieses habe 2006 mit über 5% deutlich über dem Wachstumspotenzial gelegen, das vom Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) auf 4,3% geschätzt werde. Auch in diesem und im nächsten Jahr werde sich die Dynamik trotz einer zunehmend strafferen Geldpolitik nur leicht auf Raten von 4,7% verringern. Für die Stahlindustrie seien dies günstige Vorgaben, zumal das Wachstum regional breiter diversifiziert sei als in früheren Aufschwungsphasen.

Das starke Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft habe dazu beigetragen, dass die Weltrohstahlproduktion 2006 um 8,8% auf 1,24 Mrd. Tonnen gestiegen sei, den höchsten jemals erreichten Wert. 2006 sei zudem im seit 2002 anhaltenden Aufschwung der zweithöchste Zuwachs erzielt worden. Nur das Jahr 2004 habe mit gut einem Zehntel noch besser abgeschnitten.

Wie in den Vorjahren habe das Wachstum in Asien mit 12,6% deutlich über dem in anderen Regionen gelegen. Asien produziere mittlerweile fast 54% des weltweiten Rohstahls. Vor allem der Aufstieg Chinas als Stahlnation habe hierzu beigetragen: So sei das Land 1996 erstmals zum weltgrößten Produzenten mit einem Anteil an der Weltstahlproduktion von 13,5% geworden. 2006 seien 33,8% des Rohstahls aus China gekommen. Auch wenn der Zuwachs 2006 gegenüber den Vorjahren leicht abgenommen habe, habe er doch mit 18,5% immer noch auf hohem Niveau gelegen.

In Europa sei die Dynamik 2006 naturgemäß geringer gewesen. Ein Zuwachs von knapp 5% für die EU15 und knapp 6% für die EU25-Länder sei aber für Industrieländer ein beachtlich günstiges Ergebnis. Japan, der zweitgrößte Stahlproduzent der Welt, habe seine Stahlproduktion um 3,3% und damit unterdurchschnittlich erhöht. Das Gleiche gelte für den drittgrößten Hersteller, die USA, deren Erzeugung aufgrund der moderaten Industriekonjunktur nur um 3,8% zugelegt habe.

Aufgrund des anhaltenden Wachstums der Weltwirtschaft werde sich auch der Stahlaufschwung abgeschwächt fortsetzen. Nach einer Prognose des International Iron and Steel Instituts (IISI) dürfte die Rohstahlproduktion bis 2010 auf fast 1,5 Mrd. Tonnen ansteigen, was einer jährlichen Steigerung von 4,6% entsprechen würde. In den vergangenen fünf Jahren sei ein Zuwachs von 7,8% p.a. erzielt worden. Eine wesentliche Annahme bei dieser Prognose sei die Drittelung des chinesischen Stahlwachstums: Bis 2010 betrage die jährliche Zuwachsrate der chinesischen Rohstahlproduktion voraussichtlich nur noch knapp 7% nach 22,6% zwischen 2001 und 2006.

2007 erwarte man mit 5% ein Wachstum, das leicht über diesem mittelfristigen Trend liege. Die schwache Industriekonjunktur in den USA, die zu einem Rückgang der Stahlproduktion von 7,4% in den ersten beiden Monaten 2007 geführt habe, werde durch andere Regionen der Welt mehr als ausgeglichen. Die Weltstahlproduktion habe sich bis Februar 2007 gegenüber dem entsprechenden Vorjahresniveau um 10,5% erhöht. Die größte Dynamik sei wiederum von Asien ausgegangen (+16,3%). China habe seine Produktion um 23,1% gesteigert, der Zuwachs in Japan habe bei 5,1% gelegen. Die seit Anfang des Jahres erweiterte EU27 habe die Produktion um 6,7% erhöht. (04.04.2007/ac/a/m)
Marktbericht-Datum: 04.04.2007

Quelle:aktiencheck.de 04/04/2007 15:47


Die erwartete Steigerung des Molybdänverbrauchs von 4% per anno sollte so langsam einmal nach oben korrigiert werden.

Wenn dann noch neue Anwendungen und Legierungen mit Molybdän(sind einige neue Patente angemeldet, die jetzt in die Produktion gehen werden), dann müssen wir mit deutlich über 5% Jahressteigerung rechnen.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Tatsächlich, 200 Mio. CAD sind eingenommen worden.

Unsere Quellen sind sehr zuverlässig. Die Quelle mit den 200 Mio. CAD hatte auch die Verteilung der Investition auf 50% physisches Molybdän und 50% für Aktienanlagen vorgesehen, oder verwechsele ich hier etwas?

Bei dieser Verteilung könnten sogar 3,5 Mio. IB physisches Molybän bei BluePearl aus dem Bestand aufgekauft werden. Man spart sich das Umlagern, wenn man es dirket dort kauft, wo sich die Ware eh befindet.

3,5 Mio. IB * 28 CAD = 98 Mio. CAD. Etwas unter dem Marktpreis muss der Verkauf schon erfolgen. Sonst macht es keinen Spaß.

Wenn mich nicht alles täuscht, dann war die Ware zum Jahreswechsel auf einen fairen Marktwert hochbewertet worden und der Alteigentümer hatte darauf hin noch über 60 Mio. CAD an Nachzahlung erhalten.

Bitte um Korrektur, wenn ich hier etwas verwechsele.

Ist die Ware aber mit 20 CAD im Bestand bewertet, dann müssen lediglich 8 CAD Gewinn versteuert werden.

Heißt: von den 98 Mio. CAD bleiben fast 90 Mio. für die Kredittilgung über.

Nun wissen wir auch, warum der Fond für die Aktien den 12 CAD Sonderpreis erhalten hat.

Wenn der Deal jetzt im 2. Quartal über die Bühne geht, dann kann BluePearl alleine durch den neuen Fond so um die 110 Mio. USD an dem Kredit abbezahlen.

Dazu kommt noch das Tagesgeschäft mit ca, 1,2 Mio. USD Cashanteil pro Tag.

Dazu noch die ca, 130 Mio. USD Cashbestand zum 31.03.2007.

Folglich wird man im 2. Quartal so um die 200 Mio. USD an dem Kredit abbezahlen können.

Jetzt noch der Sojitz-Deal und alles ist perfekt.

Bitte um Korrektur.


therefore

[Firsteven]

Diesen Gedankengang hatte ich in ähnlicher Form auch, als ich heute N8 die Nachricht mit dem PP gelesen habe.

Es wäre aber auch einleuchtend, wenn der Preis des PP nichts mit dem Kauf des physischen Moly zu tun hätte, da der PP-Preis wohl nicht erst gestern, sondenr Tage vorher festgelegt wurde. Der starke Anstieg der letzten 4 Handelstage lässt das PP jedoch als nette Getse gegenüber Sprott erscheinen.

Die Frage des Kaufes von physischem Moly sehe ich exakt genauso, es würde keinen Sinn machen, wenn dies nicht bei BPM erfolgen würde. Dazu hat Blue mit Sprott bereits eine ausserordentlich gute Geschäftsbeziehung. Und der Kauf von BPM-Moly erspart dem Fund tatsächlich weitere Kosten für dann anfallende Umlagerungsarbeiten.

Die steuerliche und bewertungsrechtliche Behandlung kann ich aus dem Stegreif nicht abschliessend beurteilen, dein Gedankengang hat aber einen nicht zu unterschätzenden Charme

Ich denke, wir werden im April die Ressourcenschätzung zu Davidosn erhalten und dann werden schnell auch Verhandlungen mit Sojitz aufgenommen. Ich persönlich gehe jedoch davon aus, dass eine Beteiligung erst nach der FS erfolgen wird, da erst die FS zu 100 % Sicherheit für die Überlegungen beider Seiten und die daraus resultierende Preisbildung bietet.

Egal, wie die nächsten Wochen aussehen, nach meiner festen Überzeugung haben wir mit Blue Pearl einen Rohdiamanten im Depot, den man behüten sollte wie seinen Augapfel, denn ich kenne im Moment keine andere Aktie mit einem solchen Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis.

[Firsteven]

...sorry, der Beitrag war von Schnucksche

[eifelcash]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.669.200 von Firsteven am 04.04.07 22:54:16

Mein Übernahmetip lautet immer noch Leeward Capital.

Wir sprechen uns.

[Firsteven]

BLEFF:US
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
Sprott Raises C$200 Million for Molybdenum Company (Update2)

By Christopher Donville

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Sprott Asset Management Inc., a money manager founded by Eric Sprott, said it will raise C$200 million ($173 million) by selling units in Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp., twice as much as expected.

Proceeds from the units, sold for C$5 each, will be used to buy molybdenum supplies, as well as shares of companies that explore for, mine or process the metal, Sprott Asset said today in a statement. Molybdenum is used to strengthen steel and prevent corrosion.

``We initially hoped for C$100 million, but there's been way, way more interest than we ever expected,'' Maria Smirnova, a Sprott Asset research associate, said in a telephone interview. ``It's the Eric Sprott name that attracted people and we made a strong case for molybdenum.''

Prices for molybdenum, which traded for less than $3 a pound five years ago, have soared along with demand from expanding economies in Asia. The metal now trades for about $29 a pound, according to prices published by Metal Bulletin.

Eric Sprott has won a following among investors who profited from his early bets on natural-resource stocks. Units of Uranium Participation Corp., a uranium buyer Sprott helped set up, have surged 96 percent in the past year on concerns about supplies of the raw material for nuclear-reactor fuel.

Sprott founded Sprott Asset in 2000 after running Sprott Securities Inc., a Toronto-based brokerage now known as Cormark Securities Inc.

Sprott Asset will manage the new molybdenum company and plans to buy about 10 percent of the units for C$4.90 each. The units, which will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange, were sold by a group of brokerages and banks led by Cormark.

The molybdenum company already has purchased shares of producers Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., based in Toronto, and Mercator Minerals Ltd. of Kingman, Arizona, and explorer Roca Mines Inc., based in Vancouver, Smirnova said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver at [e-mail]

Last Updated: April 4, 2007 15:27 EDT


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=con…

[Firsteven]

A Blue Pearl of Great Value
or as Fred Astaire sang "I guess I\'ll have to change my plans."
Apr. 4/07

Blue Pearl Mining (BLE on Toronto) is a member of the AMP Portfolio - but as the price increased over the last year we have traded some shares to capture profits. Yet their latest move causes me to believe the position we hold- should be added to, not reduced- so I am reversing course.

Why the change - why not keep selling a portion as the price advances ?

On Tuesday, after the market closed the Company announced it had arranged a private placement of 3 million shares at $12 a piece ($36 million) to the Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation and that ALL that money would go to reduce debt. This follows the recently announced early repayment of $62 million of high priced debt. UBS issued a review saying that Blue Pearl could be debt free by 2009.

When we purchased Blue Pearl;
1) It was (and is) a new mining firm. Its last financials are for only 67 days as an operator.
2) The company was created with a huge amount of debt.
3) Molybdenum (hereinafter referred to as moly to save my two typing fingers) was little known or discussed.

What Changed?
1) The company has repeatedly stated it generates $1million dollars a day in cash flow
- that cash flow combined with.
2) Debt reduction as noted above - lowers the investment risk each day.
3) Eric Sprott has arrange a Moly participation fund and these new shares in Blue Pearl are a major part of the fund. I may not be the smartest guy in the room, but I am smart enough to go with the smartest guy. These new shares were purchased by the fund in the expectation that their growth will " power" the fund performance. In addition the Fund anticipates the price of moly heading higher - which will help lift the fund value and the value of Blue Pearl.
4) Moly is now a “hot topic" - make no mistake - a lot of media chatter attracts investors and in moly, Blue Pearl is the "go to" stock.
5) A planned U.S. listing will bring more investors to the stock.
http://www.amprogram.com/

[Firsteven]

IPO for Sprott Molybdenum gets $36M lift
Blue Pearl Mining weighs in with three million shares
Barry Critchley, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, April 05, 2007

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?…

The initial public offering of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. has been given a $36-million head start.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., which describes itself as the world\'s largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, has placed three million shares with the issuer, which has filed a preliminary prospectus to go public. Blue Pearl sold the shares via a private placement at $12 per share. When the private placement closes, Blue Pearl will reduce its debt by $36- million.

The financing comes with a few terms and conditions. "The private placement is subject to definitive documentation, completion of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation\'s proposed initial public offering and receipt of all required regulatory approvals and consents, including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange," Blue Pearl said.

Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation (SMPC) is planning to raise cash from investors and to use the proceeds to invest in shares of public and private companies involved in the molybdenum business, either exploring, mining or processing the commodity. Part of the proceeds will be used to invest in, or hold and sell "all commercial forms of molybdenum."

The issuer is planning to sell units with each unit consisting of a common share plus one a share purchase warrant. The issuer is a clone of Uranium Participation Corp., which has given investors a healthy return in the two years that it has been public. Initially, investors purchased units -- one common share plus one-quarter of a share purchase warrant -- at $5 a time. The shares closed yesterday at $17.36.

SMPC priced its IPO yesterday. It will sell 36 million units at $5 each.

The sale by Blue Pearl is unusual but not unknown.

For instance, some flow through share funds sell shares directly to money managers as part of an offering. On some of those deals, the issuer sells common shares and flow-through shares and, because of the tax breaks, can command a higher price for the flow through.

In the summer of 2003, Canadian Oil Sands Trust closed a $228.5-million financing via the sale of 6.5 million units at $35.15 per unit. Of the number sold, 5.5 million were placed in the public markets and the rest via a private placement. While it is not directly comparable, a few years back a $900-million lead order from Capital Group underpinned a $2.1-billion equity financing by BCE.

[Firsteven]

Es hat mich mal interessiert, welche Einnahmen Blue Pearl aus der Beratung und der Moly-Lagerung für den Sprott-Moly-Fond haben wird.
Bei SEDAR bin ich fündig geworden im Preliminary Long Form Prospectus vom 1.März 2007 unter Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation.
(Das Börsenkürzel für die TSX ist übrigens sinnigerweise mit MLY angegeben, ist aber wohl noch nicht gelistet)

Blue Pearl erhält
1) 1/8 von 1% (also 0,125%) pro Jahr aus dem Marktwert des gelagerten Molybdäns (monatlich abzurechnen und zu bezahlen) für Beratungstätigkeit
2) Individuell vereinbarte Vergütung für einzelne Beratungsfälle (mindestens die industrie-üblichen Stundensätze oder Tagessätze)
3) Eine jährliche Lagergebühr entsprechend dem kleineren Betrag aus
entweder a) 0,25% aus dem Marktwert des Molybdäns
oder b) 0,05$ pro Pfund
und zusätzlich 0,10$ pro Pfund (ich hoffe, ich habe diesen komplizierten Schachtelsatz richtig interpretiert)

Das bedeutet, für 1 Mio Pfund Moly im Lager erhält Blue Pearl bei einem Molypreis von 30 $
1) 0,125% aus 30 Mio = 37.500 $
2) 0,25% aus 30 Mio = 75.000 $ bzw. hier den niedrigeren Wert von 0,05$ pro Pfund, also 50.000$
3) 0,10$ pro Pfund, also 100.000 $

zusammen also etwa 187.500 $ pro 1 Mio Pfund eingelagerten Molys pro Jahr.

Angenommen der Fond hat ein Volumen von 200 Mio und legt die Hälfte in Moly an, so wären das 3,3Mio Pfund und damit Einnahmen für BPM in Höhe von rund 600.000 $. Ganz nett, im Verhältnis zum Gesamtgewinn allerdings eher unerheblich.

chartex

[Firsteven]

One More Signal on MolyMania

In the last few days I have been told by multiple, very much in the know sources that although the new Sprott Moly fund did increase from the initial $75 M intended, to $200 M in the IPO offering, they turned away many others that would have brought the total to over $700, 000,000.oo. Watch and see, Moly is on the same path as Uranium has been (and neither one is done yet by far) and the 100's of billions in liquid $ cash $ sloshing around the globe is running pellmell towards Mining and especially Molybdenum...Have a good Easter all...KR

Thu Apr 5, 2007 6:47 pm

"Ken Reser" <ykgold@...>

[Firsteven]

So geschafft! Schon wieder ein neues ATH und nur 6 Cents unter dem TH geschlossen. Der Chart ist inzwischen ein Traum. Es geht schön langsam nach oben.
Diese Woche waren das wieder rd. 10% Kursgewinn für alle Blaue Perle Aktionäre!!!

>Sprott heizt ordentlich ein.
>Nach wie wie vor sehr gute Rahmenbedingungen Stahl wird immer gefragter, Nickel auf ATH und Moly wird als Nachfolger von URAN (von der Performance u. Aussichten her) gehandelt.
>Und ein Ian der immer wieder überrascht - wie z.B. diese Woche mit dem 36 Mio. Sprott Deal.
>Entschuldung und der Shareholder Value Gedanke stehen ganze vorne.
>Die Finanzwelt überschlägt sich in den letzten Tagen mit Berichten über Moly - soviele gab es noch nie wie in den letzten 4 Wochen.

Was erwartet uns in den kommenden Wochen:
>Blue Pearl wartet täglich auf die Resourcenschätzungen vom Davidson-Projekt

>ebenso wird die Machbarkeitsstudie erwartet - 2. Quartal

>wenn diese vorliegen wird es Ergebnisse mit Sojitz geben

>Financing mit Sprott wird im April noch geschlossen

>Sondertilgungen werden geleistet - durch die 36 Mio. von Sprott dürften wir dann unter 300 Mio. liegen - und das nach 7 Monaten!!!

>Resourcenschätzungen von TC + Endako kommen - 2. Quartal

>angeblich rechnen die Analysten neue Kursziele aus

>neue Empfehlungen werden kommen

>immer mehr Instis steigen derzeit ein

>fast täglich 2 Mio. gehandelte Aktien - Umsatz könnte weiter ansteigen und somit auch die Liquidität was neue größere Investoren anlocken wird

>Shorties müssen nach wie vor eindecken, aktuell noch 3 Mio. Aktien short; 1 Mio. wurden in den letzten 2 Wochen gedeckt.

>NYSE-Listing wurde für dieses Jahr ins Auge gefasst

>Sprott wird durch seine neue Moly-Firma die Transparenz rund um Molybdän weiter erhöhen -> seht euch die Sprott Uranseite an
http://www.uraniumparticipation.com/

>In China kommen einige Moly-IPOs, u.a. China Moly noch im April

>Das faire KGV von China-Moly soll bei 10-15 liegen! Und Blue Pearl wird ebenfalls in diese Richtung ziehen

>Es gibt nur wenige die von einem weiteren stark steigenden Moly-Preis direkt profitieren - und damit meine ich nicht die ganzen Explorationsfirmen wie Adanac, Idaho und Co die erst in 1-3 Jahren produzieren werden. Die einzigste reine Cash-Cow mit dem riesen Hebel ist in meinen Augen Blue Pearl.

>Weiterhin glaube ich das Ian derzeit schon an neuen Deals arbeitet. Mich würde trotz der Schulden nicht wundern, wenn Blue Pearl dieses Jahr noch einen weiteren Produzenten übernehmen wird (private Firma oder börsennotiertes Unternehmen).

Wenn ihr euch nämlich mal anseht wie das damals bei Wheaton River gelaufen ist (siehe Bewertungsthread da hatte ich das mal recherchiert), dann werdet ihr feststellen, dass er da immer wieder dazu gekauft hat und somit extrem gewachsen ist - und nur somit für seine Aktionäre das optimale bei der Übernahme raus holen konnte.
Das Eisen muß man schmieden solange es heiß ist: soll heißen - aktuell ist der Moly-Preis top - und er wird weiter ansteigen. Warum soll man dann Zeit verschwenden wenn derzeit der Rohstoff sehr gefragt ist (und ich denke die nächsten 12-24 werden wir weiter stark steigende Moly-Preise sehen) und warten bis die Konkurrenz die besten Minen weg kauft??
Und ich meine hier wirklich nicht irgend einen Explorer wo noch viele Millionen Dollar investiert werden muß. Nein, es kommt eigentlich nur ein Produzent in Frage oder ein Unternehmen was kurz vor der Produktion steht und wo kurzfristig cash flow generiert werden kann. Von dieser These bin ich absolut überzeugt.
Es wird dieses Jahr noch etwas passieren.
Ian Mc Donald wird nicht warten bis Rio Tinto oder irgend ein anderer kommt und den ein oder anderen in British Columbia etc. aufkaufen wird.
Hier geht es darum sich Marktanteile zu sichern.
Mit Sprott hat Blue Pearl den besten Partner (und DEN Investor im Rohstoffbereich) in Canada im Rücken. Und die UBS dürfte auch sofort für einen größeren Deal wieder Geld zur Verfügung stellen. Das das Management nicht von Pappe ist haben sie ja nach den letzten Monaten eindrucksvoll bewiesen.

Ich kann mich noch an die Zeiten von Januar/Anfang Februar erinnern wo Chartex, Schnucksche und ich (und noch einige andere) mehrfach darauf hin gewiesen haben, dass 4,50 bzw. 5 EUR KAUFKURSE sind und Blue Pearl krass unterbewertet ist und man eher kaufen soll als verkaufen. Die Bestätigung haben wir ja (zum Glück ) nun vorliegen. Neues ATH - und seit dem fast 100% Kursgewinn. Und dies dürfte erst der Anfang sein - die wirklich guten Zeiten (News) liegen noch vor uns!
Es drängt sich vom Kursverlauf her ein Vergleich mit Salzgitter, Solarworld und Puma auf - Blue Pearl könnte sich ebenfalls entsprechend noch vervielfachen - jedoch ist das sehr abhängig vom Moly-Preis. Aber: wir haben ja noch SPROTT mit im Boot sitzen der mit Uran in 2005 einen Volltreffer landete. Von daher mache ich mir keine Sorgen.

In diesem Sinne:

Allen ein schönes Osterfest!!!

Bis nächste Woche.

Firsteven

[Cuba_Libre]

herausgelöste passagen zu wesentl. themen aus dem interview von mr. finch mit mr. mcdonald vom 27.03. (in gänze bereits hier gepostet von therefore, #673, und vom absender im hauptthread, #100393)...

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



1) zum molybdänbedarf:

From where supply comes from is second to the increasing demand McDonald sees ahead. “There are a growing number of applications for molybdenum.” He pointed out that cars consume molybdenum. “There’s about 0.9 pound or so in about a dozen different places in the automobile, and with 55 million cars in the world, that’s about 50 million pounds.” This is probably the third largest application of moly.

“High-end molybdenum stainless steel applications consume the biggest amount,” McDonald said. “Any steel that’s used in the ocean or near the ocean has got molybdenum in it.” He pointed out that Blue Pearl leaves about 10 percent of the company’s molybdenum production in the sulphide form for the high-end lubrication market – the oil companies. “Most of it is made into tech oxide, MO3, and about 25 percent would be ferromolybdenum,” he said. “We just sold some (ferromoly) in Europe for $34/pound.”



++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2) zum sprott-fonds:

His company was chosen to help produce advice on the newly launched Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund. We asked about his involvement. “We get a small fee for storing molybdenum if they choose to buy,” he told us. It would be stored at Blue Pearl’s metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania. “We would also sell them some,” he added. His company would not be counseling the fund in which companies to take investment stakes. “It would pose a conflict of interest and we would have to recuse ourselves,” he said.



++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

3) zur "konkurrenz" in form von moly(junior)explorern:

“There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market,” McDonald observed. “Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.” He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.” He explained his own personal experience, “When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior.”

4) zu davidson:

One place where he sees imminent molybdenum supply is from Blue Pearl’s Davidson deposit, not far from the company’s Endako mine and milling facility. “We will have the feasibility out in the second quarter – I say second quarter, but I hope it’s very soon,” McDonald told us. “It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world.” He said his company was lucky to have gotten it three years ago. “It had been ready for production and there was a lot of development done on it.” So, the company decided to move to the final feasibility study instead of bothering with a scoping study or pre-feasibility. He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.



++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

5) zur sojitz-beteiligung:

But Blue Pearl may take in a partner on Davidson – the Japanese trading company, Sojitz. “They own 25 percent of Endako, and they want to buy 25 percent of Davidson,” McDonald said. “It would make sense, if they own the same percentage of both. There wouldn’t be any recovery issues, or combining of ore and al that. We would have the same labor force.” He did caution the deal was not done yet. “We’ll look to possibly do a transaction with them.”



++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

6) zu endako

Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a ‘super pit.’ The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. “I feel pretty good about that, it’s pretty realistic,” he told us. “We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors.”

We discussed his vision of expanding the mill to 50,000 tons per day. “It’s probably 32,000 tons per day now,” he pointed out. The first step involves redoing the reserves and resource calculations at Thompson Creek and Endako using a $10/pound moly price. The previous pricing was “way too conservative,” according to McDonald. We suspect the higher resource figure would open the door to raising the likely $250 million to upgrade the facility to the higher tonnage operation. And his mind is already moving in that direction.

“Let’s say we had a study done within the next year,” he explained. “It would take to 2008 or 2009 to build it. Unfortunately, because the mine has been operating for forty-two years, we would have to move the existing mill.” The mill would have to be moved because there is ore beneath the present mill site. “It won’t happen overnight,” he warned.



++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

7) zu expansionsabsichten:

And what about those other junior molybdenum companies? “We aren’t going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits,” he responded. “Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we’d rather buy something that’s either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production.”

8) zum listing in NY.

What are his plans as 2007 rolls on? “We qualify for the New York Stock Exchange,” McDonald confided. “We’ve talked to them. I think we will get the ball rolling this spring, and we could look for an early fall consummation. We are going to come to the U.S., we qualify and they seem pretty keen on having us.”

9) abschließende gesamtaussage:

Just to make sure we got his story right, McDonald added, “We’re not going to sit on our laurels. We have a lot of growth ahead of us, bringing on Davidson, expanding the reserves of both mines and doing a scoping study for expanding Endako. Our main job is to get the debt paid down and increase the reserves. That’s quite a bit. It’s all within our backyard and with our own expertise. Anything we do outside of that – we will do other things, I think, but they are things that are going to be for sure.”

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/23805.html

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

> ...and they seem pretty keen on having us. = die (NY Stock Exchange) scheinen scharf darauf zu sein, uns dabei zu haben.

> We’re not going to sit on our laurels = wir werden uns nicht auf unseren lorbeeren ausruhen!!!

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Ab 17 Min.


Thursday, April 05, 2007 7:00 PM ET

Market Call Tonight with Michael Hainsworth

Large Cap Resources Stocks

Dennis DaSilva, managing director resource group, Middlefield Capital


Recommendation: B U Y
Dennis Dasilva
Blue Pearl: The largest pure molybdenum play in the world. Has a full infrastructure in terms of concentrator, access and mill!!!

[ruhtra]

Ich denke, schnucksches Grafiken sollten im Bewertungsthread nicht fehlen:




Allen ein frohes Osterfest
BG ruhtra

[Cuba_Libre]

endlich werden auch mädels auf moly aufmerksam...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/nickel-rally-gives-mom…

Myra Saefong's Commodities Corner
Nickel's rally is molybdenum's gain



By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:07 AM ET Apr 6, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have climbed more than 200% in the past year and some of their success has been spilling over to molybdenum.
Why? Nickel and molybdenum are metals which enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel, so molybdenum can sometimes be used to subsidize nickel content.



The biggest threats to nickel's rally are "replacement metals," said James Finch, a senior editor at StockInterview.com. "For nickel, there has been quiet substitution of molybdenum, which is slowly creeping higher in price.
Not everyone agrees that metal substitution is a real threat to the nickel market. But it's one contributor to the growing need around the world for molybdenum.
So is it too late to invest in nickel -- and what are the prospects for molybdenum?
First, investors need to consider the biggest driver for the base metals' rally.
"Everyone is underestimating growth in the Chinese market," said Finch. "We've gotten steady and fairly reliable info that this growth is not slowing down, as many forecast."



And China's and India's growth in commodity consumption is just "part of the story," said Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. "We see emerging-market demand growth all over the globe."
Against that backdrop, nickel prices soared to $50,000 per metric ton Thursday -- an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange, according to BaseMetals.com. That's more than $22 a pound.
And molybdenum costs around $30 a pound, according to InfoMine.com -- about a 500% jump from the level seen four years ago. It's at its highest price since Nov. 2005, though prices peaked at over $45 in June 2005.

Supply factor

Explaining the price strength is as simple as taking a look at supply.
Nickel has "tended towards global deficits these past couple of years -- a pattern that was widely expected to abate in 2007," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.
But that was "before numerous supply disruptions kept the market undersupplied," he said.
As of March 27, nickel supplies tracked by the LME were down 25% since the turn of the year -- a period that has seen 35% price growth, Parry said. Supplies are down 85% from the corresponding period last year, while prices are up over 200% from that period.
As of Thursday, LME nickel stocks stood at 4,812 metric tons, not too far from the Feb. 6 level of 2,982, which was the lowest since July 1991, according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.



"The result of strong nickel demand has led to only enough LME global warehouse stock to provide an equivalent supply of just over a day's worth of global-nickel consumption," said Scott Wright, an analyst at financial-services company Zeal LLC.
The figures for molybdenum aren't so current. But global production was estimated at 416 million pounds in 2005, with demand that year pegged at 400 million, according to a January newsletter from the International Molybdenum Association.
Molybdenum is a by-product of copper and when copper production was curtailed or suffered because of infrastructure problems in the early 2000s, molybdenum availability tightened as well, explained Hayes.
"Even now, nearly all copper producers still see molybdenum as just a by-product and do not make extra efforts to maximize production," he said.

Replacement concept

Regardless, Finch said it's not a "one-for-one switch" from nickel to molybdenum. "There is a nickel shortage, but not a molybdenum shortage."
"The substitutions are being done in tiny percentages to reduce 'surcharges'," he said.
"When the stainless steel manufacturer sells the final product, he tacks on an 'alloy surcharge'" and the nickel shortage caused the alloy surcharge to run more than 70% of the price of the steel product, Finch explained.
So "by reducing some of the nickel content and adding other metals -- such as chromium, manganese and molybdenum, this reduces the nickel surcharge to the final price," he said.
In stainless steels, molybdenum is used along with chromium to raise corrosion resistance, according to the International Molybdenum Association's newsletter. Around 10% of world stainless-steel production contains molybdenum.
Still, although many analysts agree that the steel industry has been using molybdenum as a stand-in for some of the nickel content in certain stainless steels, the degree to which that'll continue to happen is a bit fuzzy.
Molybdenum is a "much smaller market than nickel and less in the way of potential new sources of supply [so] it is hard to imagine molybdenum replacing nickel in any significant way," said Lawrence Roulston, editor of Resource Opportunities.
Also, substituting one metal for another is a long-term process, he said.
"In the end, when the switching begins, it just spreads the shortages around and pushes up the alternative commodity," said Sprott's Bambrough.
Molybdenum deposits are more common than nickel, but it "has exactly the same problems in terms of short-term supply," said Eric Coffin, co-editor of HardRockAnalyst.com, which offers publications focused on resource stocks.
So "while many metals are at prices that make substitution a potential option, the fact remains that it's not easy to find substitutes that are not in the same supply-constrained situation," he said.
Experts expect molybdenum "to be in shortage as well and it's not any cheaper than nickel," Coffin said.

"Until a couple of major operations come on stream, in a year or two, molybdenum isn't likely to provide any relief for nickel consumers," he said.

Growing demand

That said, the $12 billion market for molybdenum is changing, according to Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (CA:BLE: news, chart, profile) , which pegs itself as the world's largest publicly-traded pure molybdenum producer.
There are more and more uses for molybdenum -- 25 years ago it wasn't used in cars, said McDonald. Now there are 15 small component parts in a car that use molybdenum, and 50 million cars were made last year, he said. "Steel markets are reclaiming markets lost to aluminum and plastic."
Global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a rate better than 4% per year over the last 50 years, and it climbed 6% last year, said McDonald.
Over in China, demand grew about 20% last year, he said, pointing out that the world market for molybdenum was 230 million pounds back in 1993 and the Chinese, at that time, were producing 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million. Now, China produces 80 million pounds and is a net exporter of 30-40 million.
Molybdenum's use in nuclear plants also offers a potential demand boost.
Every nuclear plant is going to require -- depending on the design -- between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, said McDonald. The nuclear reactor itself is around 6% molybdenum.
For now, pipelines are the "single biggest consumer" of molybdenum, he said.

Nickel's gain

As for nickel itself, current pricing is reaching levels that look "unsustainable," said Coffin.
Then again, the largest use for nickel is stainless steel production, said Coffin. That's a "high-end use and even at current prices, substitution for end uses like ... stainless steel is not easy."
And the fact that nickel is over $20 a pound suggests that there is "huge pent-up demand" for it, said Resource Opportunities' Roulston.
Roulston stressed, however, that there is a difference between speculating on a higher nickel price and profiting from the long-term bull market in metals.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn't bet a dime on nickel going higher," he said. Though, "my subscribers are making huge profits by investing in the companies that are focused on the fundamental factor in the metal markets, which is the critical shortage of supply."
And with nickel supplies headed for a deficit this year and investment funds buying most base metals, "there is further upside price potential," said BaseMetals.com's Hayes.

Opportunity knocks

The one thing analysts didn't seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott's Bambrough.
There's a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 [and] ... we wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.
So what's the best way to get in on that action?



"The best way to invest in any of the base metals is to invest in those companies that are in the best position to benefit from the supply deficits ... exploration and development companies that have deposits that are advancing toward production, or that might be taken over by larger companies," said Roulston.
Sprott Asset Management has a new molybdenum investment vehicle in the works.
It plans to launch trading of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in the second half of April.
The company, which will trade in Canada under the ticker "MLY," will be a public company that invests in "both physical molybdenum and companies that have exposure to molybdenum," according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott.
"It's pretty unique; the first of its kind," she said.
And Blue Pearl has agreed to provide technical-advisory services to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. relating to the molybdenum business and/or physical molybdenum, she said.
As for the miners, Zeal LLC's Wright likes Idaho General Mines (GMO
GMO5.15, -0.27, -5.0% ) , which he says owns the largest global molybdenum project in the permitting stage. He owns shares in GMO. He also likes Blue Pearl.
Blue Pearl is "highly confident our Davidson mine will have full production in 2009," with 4.5 million pounds annually, the company's McDonald said.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[Firsteven]

IPO for Sprott Molybdenum gets $36M lift
Blue Pearl Mining weighs in with three million shares
Barry Critchley, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, April 05, 2007
The initial public offering of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. has been given a $36-million head start.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., which describes itself as the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, has placed three million shares with the issuer, which has filed a preliminary prospectus to go public. Blue Pearl sold the shares via a private placement at $12 per share. When the private placement closes, Blue Pearl will reduce its debt by $36- million.

The financing comes with a few terms and conditions. "The private placement is subject to definitive documentation, completion of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation's proposed initial public offering and receipt of all required regulatory approvals and consents, including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange," Blue Pearl said.


Email to a friend

Printer friendly
Font: ****Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation (SMPC) is planning to raise cash from investors and to use the proceeds to invest in shares of public and private companies involved in the molybdenum business, either exploring, mining or processing the commodity. Part of the proceeds will be used to invest in, or hold and sell "all commercial forms of molybdenum."

The issuer is planning to sell units with each unit consisting of a common share plus one a share purchase warrant. The issuer is a clone of Uranium Participation Corp., which has given investors a healthy return in the two years that it has been public. Initially, investors purchased units -- one common share plus one-quarter of a share purchase warrant -- at $5 a time. The shares closed yesterday at $17.36.

SMPC priced its IPO yesterday. It will sell 36 million units at $5 each.

The sale by Blue Pearl is unusual but not unknown.

For instance, some flow through share funds sell shares directly to money managers as part of an offering. On some of those deals, the issuer sells common shares and flow-through shares and, because of the tax breaks, can command a higher price for the flow through.

In the summer of 2003, Canadian Oil Sands Trust closed a $228.5-million financing via the sale of 6.5 million units at $35.15 per unit. Of the number sold, 5.5 million were placed in the public markets and the rest via a private placement. While it is not directly comparable, a few years back a $900-million lead order from Capital Group underpinned a $2.1-billion equity financing by BCE.

- - -

Godwin returns Marianne Godwin, one of the veterans of the world of media and communications, has returned to the sell side. She has joined Octagon Capital Corp. as a media and telecom analyst.

"She brings a unique perspective to Octagon's research team with her combination of buy-side, sell-side, corporate and investor communications experiences," said a note circulated at the firm.

Godwin has had a varied career. Early on, she was on the buy side as manager of mutual fund marketing at Guardian Group of Funds. Then she joined the sell side and worked with Merrill Lynch, National Bank Financial and HSBC Securities. A stint in the corporate world followed, including a stop at Hollinger Inc. Most recently she was a principal and founder of Income Trust IR, an institutional equity advisory division of communications firm Barnes McInerney Inc.

IPO for Sprott Molybdenum gets $36M lift
Blue Pearl Mining weighs in with three million shares
Barry Critchley, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, April 05, 2007
"Once the brokerage business is in your blood, it's hard to get it out," said Godwin, noting that before she came on board, Octagon didn't employ the services of a media and telecom analyst.

Godwin, who is in the process of doing an industry study -- which she says is her "way of getting back into the industry" -- added that her research will focus on small- to mid cap-companies. "That's what this firm focuses on, all part of our value-added research," Godwin said.

Godwin believes her corporate experience will prove invaluable in her new role. "I better understand the communications process and that will help me in analyzing what's important to our clients. As a result, I believe that I will be a better analyst. Knowledge can't hurt," she added.


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Font: ****Octagon is home to a handful of anlaysts. Bob Gibson is the research boss and also covers consumer products; Jeffrey Fiell and Warren Verbonac cover oil and gas; Rik Visagie covers mining, while Abid Mukhtar covers special situations.

- - -

Dalton departs Kevin Dalton, a former member of the equity capital markets group at CIBC World Markets and most recently the head of technology and healthcare investment banking at the firm, has moved on. At this stage, it's not clear where Dalton -- who spent more than a dozen years at CIBC--is moving to.

- - -

Adios In the two years it was public, FMF Group Ltd. provided lots of material for this column. Unfortunately, it didn't provide a return to investors who anted up $197.5-million to buy income participating securities. Those securities, which cost $10 apiece, achieved the notable distinction of never trading at issue price.

And now the end has come: The company's IPSs will be delisted at the close of market today for failure to meet the continued listing requirements of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

[e-mail]

[Firsteven]

Molybdenum Applications
April 4, 2007 In 2007, it would seam that every one is trying to get in on the energy bandwagon, and for good reason. Petroleum prices are surging on a regular basis and commodity metals, such as gold, are through the roof. So, as the saying goes “hit the ball where they ain’t” can be said to apply as investors line up in various energy sectors to capitalize on the run toward energy.

Molybdenum a Hidden Source of Strength

When investors think of energy petroleum is generally the first thing that comes to mind. What is missed in this assessment of, what is energy?” comes in the form of a little known ore called Molybdenum (or Moly for short) that is used to strengthen steel, of various types, and provide a corrosion resistance not found in refined and smelted steel products. The ore is not one of the more “sexy” investment vehicles found in most portfolios but non-the-less can be considered a potential steady player for the longer term if “junior” players are considered for the investment.

What makes Molybdenum so interesting is the energy markets that it contributes to. According to the International Molybdenum Association 80 percent of all Molybdenum mined goes into the production of tools, high speed steel, and stainless steel. Stainless steel and high strength steel are the two primary consumers of the material and make up the general Future of it. As the energy sector continues its exploration for crude oil and gas deposits it goes deeper and more far a field in its search. These deposits are often very deep underground and contain very high levels of corrosive sulfur and other nasty elements.

Many Possibilities

When put into the materials mix Molybdenum helps to prevent the corrosive ware in the drilling equipment and in the corresponding transport of the product from the drill site to the refinery or customer. In the instance of natural gas there is and are plans for approximately 73 million miles of piping around the world, which will require Molybdenum’s use for stainless steel tubing and pipes.

Stainless steel piping for gas transport is but one of the energy sectors that Molybdenum will be in demand for. Coal liquidification plants, particularly in China, nuclear power plants using uranium, drilling rigs and even coastal architecture are finding that having a material available to protect their project is invaluable.

One particular sticking point to the ores use is its availability. There are reported to be vast reserves of the material around the world but still in the ground. In the mining world cost is everything so the price of the extracted material is critical for ramping up mining operations.

Currently, there are several Junior operators waiting for permits and ready to go with a Molybdenum price of approximately $28 per pound There are, however, no larger players owing to environmental concerns and higher operational costs. Current supply and price are relatively stable and will likely float around these levels for the time being. Most within the market, however, indicate that a time frame of 5-8 years should find those that establish themselves now in a solid position while taking a smaller risk-return approach.

[Firsteven]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/nickel-rally-gives-mom…


Myra Saefong's Commodities Corner
Nickel's rally is molybdenum's gain

PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:07 AM ET Apr 6, 2007


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have climbed more than 200% in the past year and some of their success has been spilling over to molybdenum.
Why? Nickel and molybdenum are metals which enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel, so molybdenum can sometimes be used to subsidize nickel content.
The biggest threats to nickel's rally are "replacement metals," said James Finch, a senior editor at StockInterview.com. "For nickel, there has been quiet substitution of molybdenum, which is slowly creeping higher in price.
Not everyone agrees that metal substitution is a real threat to the nickel market. But it's one contributor to the growing need around the world for molybdenum.
So is it too late to invest in nickel -- and what are the prospects for molybdenum?
First, investors need to consider the biggest driver for the base metals' rally.
"Everyone is underestimating growth in the Chinese market," said Finch. "We've gotten steady and fairly reliable info that this growth is not slowing down, as many forecast."
And China's and India's growth in commodity consumption is just "part of the story," said Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. "We see emerging-market demand growth all over the globe."
Against that backdrop, nickel prices soared to $50,000 per metric ton Thursday -- an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange, according to BaseMetals.com. That's more than $22 a pound.
And molybdenum costs around $30 a pound, according to InfoMine.com -- about a 500% jump from the level seen four years ago. It's at its highest price since Nov. 2005, though prices peaked at over $45 in June 2005.
Supply factor
Explaining the price strength is as simple as taking a look at supply.
Nickel has "tended towards global deficits these past couple of years -- a pattern that was widely expected to abate in 2007," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.
But that was "before numerous supply disruptions kept the market undersupplied," he said.
As of March 27, nickel supplies tracked by the LME were down 25% since the turn of the year -- a period that has seen 35% price growth, Parry said. Supplies are down 85% from the corresponding period last year, while prices are up over 200% from that period.
As of Thursday, LME nickel stocks stood at 4,812 metric tons, not too far from the Feb. 6 level of 2,982, which was the lowest since July 1991, according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.
"The result of strong nickel demand has led to only enough LME global warehouse stock to provide an equivalent supply of just over a day's worth of global-nickel consumption," said Scott Wright, an analyst at financial-services company Zeal LLC.
The figures for molybdenum aren't so current. But global production was estimated at 416 million pounds in 2005, with demand that year pegged at 400 million, according to a January newsletter from the International Molybdenum Association.
Molybdenum is a by-product of copper and when copper production was curtailed or suffered because of infrastructure problems in the early 2000s, molybdenum availability tightened as well, explained Hayes.
"Even now, nearly all copper producers still see molybdenum as just a by-product and do not make extra efforts to maximize production," he said.
Replacement concept
Regardless, Finch said it's not a "one-for-one switch" from nickel to molybdenum. "There is a nickel shortage, but not a molybdenum shortage."
"The substitutions are being done in tiny percentages to reduce 'surcharges'," he said.
"When the stainless steel manufacturer sells the final product, he tacks on an 'alloy surcharge'" and the nickel shortage caused the alloy surcharge to run more than 70% of the price of the steel product, Finch explained.
So "by reducing some of the nickel content and adding other metals -- such as chromium, manganese and molybdenum, this reduces the nickel surcharge to the final price," he said.
In stainless steels, molybdenum is used along with chromium to raise corrosion resistance, according to the International Molybdenum Association's newsletter. Around 10% of world stainless-steel production contains molybdenum.
Still, although many analysts agree that the steel industry has been using molybdenum as a stand-in for some of the nickel content in certain stainless steels, the degree to which that'll continue to happen is a bit fuzzy.
Molybdenum is a "much smaller market than nickel and less in the way of potential new sources of supply [so] it is hard to imagine molybdenum replacing nickel in any significant way," said Lawrence Roulston, editor of Resource Opportunities.
Also, substituting one metal for another is a long-term process, he said.
"In the end, when the switching begins, it just spreads the shortages around and pushes up the alternative commodity," said Sprott's Bambrough.
Molybdenum deposits are more common than nickel, but it "has exactly the same problems in terms of short-term supply," said Eric Coffin, co-editor of HardRockAnalyst.com, which offers publications focused on resource stocks.
So "while many metals are at prices that make substitution a potential option, the fact remains that it's not easy to find substitutes that are not in the same supply-constrained situation," he said.
Experts expect molybdenum "to be in shortage as well and it's not any cheaper than nickel," Coffin said.
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"Until a couple of major operations come on stream, in a year or two, molybdenum isn't likely to provide any relief for nickel consumers," he said.
Growing demand
That said, the $12 billion market for molybdenum is changing, according to Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (CA:BLE: news, chart, profile) , which pegs itself as the world's largest publicly-traded pure molybdenum producer.
There are more and more uses for molybdenum -- 25 years ago it wasn't used in cars, said McDonald. Now there are 15 small component parts in a car that use molybdenum, and 50 million cars were made last year, he said. "Steel markets are reclaiming markets lost to aluminum and plastic."
Global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a rate better than 4% per year over the last 50 years, and it climbed 6% last year, said McDonald.
Over in China, demand grew about 20% last year, he said, pointing out that the world market for molybdenum was 230 million pounds back in 1993 and the Chinese, at that time, were producing 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million. Now, China produces 80 million pounds and is a net exporter of 30-40 million.
Molybdenum's use in nuclear plants also offers a potential demand boost.
Every nuclear plant is going to require -- depending on the design -- between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, said McDonald. The nuclear reactor itself is around 6% molybdenum.
For now, pipelines are the "single biggest consumer" of molybdenum, he said.
Nickel's gain
As for nickel itself, current pricing is reaching levels that look "unsustainable," said Coffin.
Then again, the largest use for nickel is stainless steel production, said Coffin. That's a "high-end use and even at current prices, substitution for end uses like ... stainless steel is not easy."
And the fact that nickel is over $20 a pound suggests that there is "huge pent-up demand" for it, said Resource Opportunities' Roulston.
Roulston stressed, however, that there is a difference between speculating on a higher nickel price and profiting from the long-term bull market in metals.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn't bet a dime on nickel going higher," he said. Though, "my subscribers are making huge profits by investing in the companies that are focused on the fundamental factor in the metal markets, which is the critical shortage of supply."
And with nickel supplies headed for a deficit this year and investment funds buying most base metals, "there is further upside price potential," said BaseMetals.com's Hayes.
Opportunity knocks
The one thing analysts didn't seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott's Bambrough.
There's a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 [and] ... we wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.
So what's the best way to get in on that action?
"The best way to invest in any of the base metals is to invest in those companies that are in the best position to benefit from the supply deficits ... exploration and development companies that have deposits that are advancing toward production, or that might be taken over by larger companies," said Roulston.
Sprott Asset Management has a new molybdenum investment vehicle in the works.
It plans to launch trading of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in the second half of April.
The company, which will trade in Canada under the ticker "MLY," will be a public company that invests in "both physical molybdenum and companies that have exposure to molybdenum," according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott.
"It's pretty unique; the first of its kind," she said.
And Blue Pearl has agreed to provide technical-advisory services to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. relating to the molybdenum business and/or physical molybdenum, she said.
As for the miners, Zeal LLC's Wright likes Idaho General Mines (GMO : idaho gen mines inc com
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4:00pm 04/05/2007

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GMO5.15, -0.27, -5.0%) , which he says owns the largest global molybdenum project in the permitting stage. He owns shares in GMO. He also likes Blue Pearl.
Blue Pearl is "highly confident our Davidson mine will have full production in 2009," with 4.5 million pounds annually, the company's McDonald said.
'Companies that are in the thick of things are willing to keep buying assets at current prices -- which tells you a lot about how they expect metal prices to look going forward.'
— Eric Coffin, HardRockAnalyst.com
For his part, Coffin said he follows a number of nickel and molybdenum exporters and developers, though "the list is fairly short and getting shorter in both cases."
Coffin's longer-term pick is Rio Narcea (CA:RNG: news, chart, profile) , which produces nickel in Spain. It just agreed to a takeover offer from Lundin Mining (CA:LUN: news, chart, profile) .
"We expect a few other companies on the hraadvisory.com list will 'go away' before the year ends," said Coffin.
"That may be the best comfort for investors that do not know the metals markets well; companies that are in the thick of things are willing to keep buying assets at current prices -- which tells you a lot about how they expect metal prices to look going forward."
Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[Firsteven]

The next large scale moly mine; Who exactly is in the lead?
Source: Ken Reser



See alsoMolybdenum Board
Molybdenum CatalogFor many months now and even more so of late with the flock of new Moly plays emerging & endless promotions thereof, it has become very apparent to myself and to a few others who have been directly involved or writing/researching on the so-called Moly-Mania phase for over two years that there are some serious misconceptions out there regarding various junior Molybdenum projects.

As I see it there are only three possible "Current" & near term (1.5 to 3-4 years out depending on which company) Large Scale (meaning @ least 10 or more Million pounds production p/y) Molybdenum Mine hopefuls at present and it should also be stated that I see absolutely no reason why all three of these projects can't eventually see production at some point as they each have projects of merit, history & maturity.

As well I would add that contrary to some attitudes, there IS enough increasing Molybdenum demand worldwide as indicated by research for all three of the companies I have chosen to mention or possibly even more, to become producers over the next few years w/o disrupting the demand/price of Molybdenum to any extent.

The three companies I see with the best potential to be next in line are -
*Adanac Molybdenum Corp,
*Idaho General Mines,
*MolyMines Ltd.

Outside of these three aforementioned companies we see a few dozen grassroots stage projects, some w/ or w/o past property exploration history who have jumped aboard the Moly bandwagon over the last couple years.

Among the majority of the multitude of other newer Jr Moly projects currently out there that most all do not yet even have any scale of NI-43-101 compliant 'Resources' nor Scoping Studies, etc, etc, not to mention 'Pre or Final' Feasibility Studies. The above items are all obviously totally necessary and relevant aspects of creating a working mine that take years and many, many millions of dollars to complete.

Current status of the three companies I personally see as the definitive front runners for the next Large Scale Molybdenum Mine:

Adanac Molybdenum Corp:

-Bankable Final Feasibility Study: Completed Apr./06
-Mine Permits and EAO Application: Filed Aug. /06
-Detailed Engineering & Procurement: Contracted & UnderWay
-Contracts For Mine Construction Camp: Completed
-Mine Lease Approval: Approved Mar. /07
-Mine Permits, EAO Approval: Expected June /07
-Total CAPEX: +/- $400 M
-Daily Tonnage: +20,000 T/p/d
-Mine Construction Start: June/July /07
-Initial Production Expected: 1st Q /09

Idaho General Mines:

-Initiation Of Baseline & Environmental Studies: (underway)
-Initiation Of Bankable Final Feasibilty Study: (underway)
-EIS Permitting: Being Advanced in /07
-Detailed Enginering & Procurement: No Data Found
-Mine Lease Approval: No Data Found
-Total CAPEX: Expected Up To +/- $700 M
-Daily Tonnage: Expected 40,000 T/p/d
-Mine Construction Start: Expected 2nd Half /08
-Initial Production: Expected 2010

Molymines Ltd:

-Environmental Approval: Expected in 2nd Half /07
-Mine Lease Approval: Mar/07
-Detailed Engineering & Procurement: No Data Found
-Bankable Final Feasibility Study: Expected July /07
-Total CAPEX Expected: +/- $ 622 M (based on Pre-Feasibilty)
-Daily Tonnage: Approx 40,000 T/p/d (based on 15 Mil T/p/y)
-Mine Construction Start: No Data Found
-Initial Production Expected: 3rd Q /09

*NOTE- the above timeline & current status information was taken from the Haywood Securities Apr 2/07 MOL Report & the Website for MolyMines; News Releases & the Website for Idaho Gen; News Releases, Final Feasibility Study & the Website for Adanac Molybdenum.

Disclaimer: I am an independent Investor Relations & Research Consultant, currently employed by Goldrea Resources Corp, Adanac Molybdenum Corp. Molycor Gold Corp and Rocher Deboule Minerals Corp. I may own shares in these or other companies from time to time a/o hold options of said companies. This editorial is not a recommendation to own or buy shares of said companies as I am not an accredited investment adviser.

http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=11212

[Firsteven]

super Beitrag von Schnucksche:


Das Problem dürfte sicher nicht der momentane Preis des Unternehmens sein, den wirklich Großen kommt es bei einer sinnvollen Übernahme sicher nicht darauf an, ob diese nun ein Engagement von 2 oder 3 Mrd. $ erfordert, für Einige sind das Beträge, die aus der Portokasse bezahlt werden können.

Es ist aber so, dass im Moment die wirklich relevanten Daten kaum auf dem Tisch liegen. Die tatsächlichen Informationen zu den vorhandenen Ressourcen von Davidson, die danach folgende Machbarkeitsstudie sowie die Ressourcenausweitung von TC und Endako sind wesentliche Faktoren, die auch für einen eventuellen Übernehmer von Interesse sein dürften.

Sicherlich ist die Finanzkraft von Blue Pearl nach Vorlage der Q4-Zahlen annähernd einzuschätzen, ganz klar sieht man jedoch nach Vorlage der (sicherlich sehr guten) Q1-Zahlen, auch als potentieller Übernehmer.

Ich persönlich bin auch fest davon überzeugt, dass BPM bereits auf der Watchlist vieler Großer Einzug gehalten hat. Wie aber bereits erwähnt, kommt es da weniger auf 500 Mio mehr an, sondern mehr darauf, dass alle eventuellen Unwägbarkeiten beseitigt sind.

Du wirst sehen, dass die Frage einer eventuellen Übernahme in den nächsten Monaten nicht nur hier im Board, sondern auch in der einschlägigen Presse, immer mehr debattiert werden wird.

Insoweit bin ich sehr froh, dass Blue Pearl eine solch gute Verbindung zu Sprott aufweisen kann und dieser bereits Großaktionär ist. Auch die 3 Mio Shares aus dem PP sind bei Sprott bzw. seinem Fond in guten Händen. Hinzu kommen noch die Shares der "Alteigentümer", die ganz genau wissen, welche Perle sich in ihren Depots befindet.

Was ich damit sagen will, ist folgendes: Je mehr Anteile in sicheren Gefilden sind, desto schwerer wird eine Übernahme zum Spottpreis.

Aus diesem Grund bewerte ich die Käufe von Sprott bzw. das PP auch grundsätzlich positiv.

Es ist für uns alle zu hoffen, dass der Kurs der Aktie in den nächsten Wochen, insbesondere nach Vorlage der von uns allen erwarteten zahlen noch deutlich zulegen wird. Je besser die Ergebnisse, desto teurer wird eine eventuelle Übernahme.

Leider, uns das ist meine persönliche Überzeugung, wird Blue Pearl oder TCM (ab Mai 07) das Ende des Jahres 2008 nicht erleben, ich gehe jedoch davon aus, dass uns als Aktionäre bis dahin Übernahmekurse winken, bei denen jeder ab heute mindestens noch weitere 100 % verdienen konnte. Man wird bei seinen Aktienengagement in der Regel nie das Optimum erreichen können, daher ist das für mich ein realistisches Szenario.

Ich freue mich natürlich über Anmerkungen, Ergänzungen oder andere Meinungen. Frohe Ostern Euch allen

[Firsteven]

einfach nur top - von therefore:




Hallo schnucksche,

ich sehe die Sachlage für eine Übernahme ähnlich.

Bisher haben die anderen Konzerne geschlafen. Scheinbar wachen die Leute erst dann auf, wenn es um Milliarden-Übernahmen geht. Auf Schnäppchen sind diese Leute offenbar nicht aus.

Wahrscheinlich hatten wir aber einfach nur Glück, dass der Alteigentümer von TC gar nicht wusste, wieviele Ressourcen noch auf seinen Liegenschaften vorhanden sind. Selbst Ian hatte im Explorerstadium in seinen Marketingprospekten geschrieben, dass TC demnächst den Laden dicht machen muss, da die Ressourcen zur Neige gehen. Welche Fehleinschätzung der Lage.

Kevin Loughrey hat seine persönliche Chance erkannt und den Deal in Richtung BluePearl getrieben. Schließlich kann man nicht alle Tage CEO von einem großen Minenunternehmen werden.

Im Gegensatz zu Dir gehe ich aber davon aus, dass Ian sich nicht übernehmen lassen will und dies auch schaffen wird, oder wir erhalten einen wirklich angemessenen Preis von deutlich über 30 CAD.

Die Sprottbeteiligungen, das PP, die Optionen für seine Belegschaft, usw. machen mir sehr deutlich, dass er ein Gegenkonzept erarbeitet hat und dies auch durchzieht.

Aus dem letzten Interview von Ian geht hervor, dass er einen neuen Minengiganten aufbauen will, und wer lässt sich schon gerne sein Lebenswerk zerstören?

Um einer Übernahme vorzubeugen muss er schleunigst die Unterbewertung aus dem Kurs bringen und in das andere Extrem gehen.

Daher wird er in den nächsten Wochen den positiven Newsflow nicht abreisen lassen. Mit den Sprotts hat er ja ein paar professionelle Helfer mit an Bord.

Momentan läuft der Kurs von selber in die gewünschte Richtung. Sollte wieder einmal der Hauch einer Konsolidierung kommen, werden diesmal mit Sicherheit sofort neue Nachrichten platziert.

Aus dem letzten Interview mit Ian kann man deutlich erkennen, welche Pfeile er momentan noch im Köcher hat.

Damit nicht jeder im Bewertungsthread (würde ich aber trotzdem empfehlen, Bericht 711) querlesen muss, führe ich die wichtigsten Punkte einfach noch einmal auf und bewerte diese.

1) Hoher Cashbestand und Geldzuflüsse aus dem Geschäft

Irrtümlich hatte ich in dieser Woche gedacht, dass Eric Sprott jetzt schon einen zweiten Moly-Fond aufmachen wollte, da der erste mehrfach Überzeichnet war. Daher hatte ich schon mit dem kompletten Abverkauf der 7,8 Mio. Lagerbestand gerechnet.

Chartex hat dann direkt darauf hingewiesen, dass man ja ca, 4 Mio. Bestand für die Sicherung der laufenden Verträge benötigt.

Also kann und wird man lediglich 3 Mio. IB an den Fond verkaufen.

Der Fond wird am 25. April offiziell starten und danach wird der Verkauf durchgeführt werden.

Momentan ist der Bestand mit ca. 12 USD bewertet. Heißt bei einem Preis von 28 USD müssen 16 USD versteuert werden. Wir haben damit ungefähr einen Cashzugang von 70 Mio. USD.

Dazu kommen noch die 31 Mio. USD aus der PP.

Dazu kommen noch 100 Mio. USD aus dem laufenden Geschäft.

In Summe wird man also im 2. Quartal 200 Mio. USD an dem Kredit abbezahlen können.
Zumal man Mitte März noch einen Cashbestand von 135 Mio. USD hatte (Bis zum 31.03. gehen noch 18,75 Mio. Kredittilgung ab und es kommen noch Mittelzuflüsse aus dem Geschäft hinzu).

Man kann also, je nach Kursentwicklung, im April entweder eine Sondertilgung ankündigen, oder im Mai die Durchführung der Transaktion bekannt geben. Um unter einen Restwert von 200 Mio. USD zu kommen, wird man auf alle Fälle mindestens 120 Mio. USD bezahlen.

Bei der Ablösung des second line credites bekam der Kurs Flügel. Und das waren nur 62 Mio. USD.

Weitere 100 Mio. werden dann zum Quartalsende abbezahlt werden. Diese Meldung kann dann im Juni oder Juli platziert werden. Dort brauchen wir schließlich auch noch ein paar Nachrichten.

2) Davidson und Sojitzbeteiligung

Nach der Aussage im Interview kann hier täglich mit der Genehmigung, der Ressourcenerweiterung und auch mit der Bekanntgabe der Sojitz-Beteiligung gerechnet werden.

Ich erwarte hier für dieses Jahr (2. Quartal, spätestens 3.) einen Casheingang von ca. 50 Mio. USD von Sojitz. Weitere Zahlungen für die nächsten Jahre werden an die Molypreisentwicklung (analog TC-Übernahme) angekoppelt sein. Nur so kann der Deal überhaupt zu Stande kommen.

Diese Nachricht ist aber an die Genehmigung der Behörden gebunden. Die letzten Auflagen wurden ja alle sauber abgearbeitet und nachgereicht. Der Link zu den eingereichten Unterlagen kann man irgendwo im Bewertungsthread finden. Vor allem sind in den Unterlagen die Lösungen für die Bedenken der Anlieger vom Januar mit eingearbeitet worden.

Sollten die 50 Mio. USD von Sojitz schon eingegangen und weitergereicht worden sein, dann hätten wir Ende des 2. Quartals noch einen Schuldenstand von 50 Mio. USD, alternativ von 100 Mio. USD.

3) zu TC und Endako

Für TC wird es erhöhte Ressourcenzahlen geben. Aber nichts, was Ian einen separaten Satz in dem Interview wert gewesen ist. Ich rechne hier mit einer knappen Verdoppelung der Ressourcen.

Bei Endako ist er dagegen regelrecht euphorisch. We have a massive resource there…
Dies lässt auf eine Vervielfachung der bisher bekannten Ressourcen schließen. Schließlich wurde bisher nur die Ressourcen, die bis zu einem Marktpreis von 3,5 USD lohnend abgebaut werden können, bewertet.

Hier sind, wiederum abhängig vom Kursverhalten, zwei Nachrichten möglich. Zuerst die Vervielfachung der Ressourcen im Mai oder Juni und anschließend im Juli oder August die Machbarkeitsstudie der Super-Pit.

Diese Meldung wird dann dazu führen, das einige Explorer nicht in Produktion gehen werden, da der Markt mit Sicherheit nicht bereit sein wird, hier noch zu investieren.

Als Investitionssumme zum Ausbau der Super-Pit werden hier 250 Mio. USD genannt. Diese werden dann zum größten Teil in 2008 benötigt werden.

4) Expansion

Übernahme eines (Junior) Unternehmens Ende 2007 oder Anfang 2008 mit Kupfer und Molybdän. Börsennotiert oder nicht? Auf alle Fälle kein reiner Explorer. Also Vorsicht bei Investitionen in Explorer in BC, hier droht, trotz Molymania, bei einigen Totalverlust in 2007/2008.

5) NYSE-Listing

Wird für den frühen Herbst angekündigt

6) Gesamtbewertung BluePearl anhand der Ressourcen und nach KGV

Sobald alle Ressourcenerweiterungen das sind, wird das große Rechnen beginnen. Ich persönlich habe mir den Spaß gemacht und die einzelnen Szenarien durchgerechnet.

Alleine aus den heutigen Ressourcen kann man schon einen konservativen Kurs von 14 Euro ableiten (15%-Bewertung bei 15 USD Molypreis)

Nach dem interview gehe ich von einer Ressourcenerweiterung auf 2.500 Mio. IB aus. Daraus errechnet sich ein sehr konservativer Kurs von 30 Euro und ein fairerer Kurs von 40 Euro (bei einem Molypreis von 20 USD und einer 15%-Bewertung).

Diese 40 Euro entsprechen dann auch bei dem heutigen Molypreis ungefähr einem 2008er KGV von um die 10.

Zusammenfassung;

Der Kredit wird also mit Sicherheit bis Ende des 3. Quartals abbezahlt sein. Danach werden für 2007/2008 noch 50 Mio. USD für den Start von Davidson, 100 Mio. USD für den Alteigentümer (wegen Molypreis) und 250 Mio. USD für den Endakoausbau benötigt.

Diese Investitionen kann man bei einem Molypreis > 25 USD locker aus dem CASH bezahlen!!!!!

Für die Übernahme eines Juniors wird man dann zusätzliche Mittel benötigen. Auch hierfür ist es von elementarem Interesse, dass endlich die Untertreibung aus dem jetzigen Kurs verschwinden wird. Da man die Übernahme(n) auch immer mit weiteren Kapitalerhöhungen durchführen wird ist der Verwässerungseffekt bei einem höheren Kurs natürlich niedriger und daher für uns „Altaktionäre“ besser. Zusätzlich wird man aber auch Kredite aufnehmen. Aber mit Sicherheit zu besseren Konditionen als zu den momentanen UBS-Knebelkonditionen des laufenden Vertrages.

Bis zu dem momentan fairen Wert der Aktie haben wir noch reichlich Luft nach oben. Das Chancen/Risikoverhältnis ist am Markt immer noch einzigartig.

therefore

[Firsteven]

von schnucksche:

Hallo therefore,

ich muß klarstellen, dass auch ich denke, dass sich Ian nicht übernehmen lassen will. Allerdings wird McDonald dies nicht allein zu entscheiden haben. Daher mein Hinweis, dass eine Übernahme umso schwerer und teurer wird, je mehr Aktien in sicheren Gefilden sind (ebenso dein Hinweis auf das PP und die Optionen etc.). Ich bin mir im Übrigen sicher, dass viele Großinvestoren, sollte es z.B. rein hypothetisch morgen ein Angebot vom 20 $ geben, ihre Shares verkaufen würden. Man muß sich vor Augen halten, dass institutionelle Anleger andere Ziele verfolgen als wir, die mit gewissem Herzblut an BPM hängen.


Zu Davidson und Sojitz:

Wie kommst du auf 50 Mio $ ? Ich kann diese Zahl nicht logisch herleiten, da ich hierfür die Ressourcenschätzung bzw. die FS benötigen würde, um zu wissen, was wirklich in der Erde schlummert und wie und zu welchen Kosten der Abbau erfolgen kann.

Gehen wir mal davon aus, dass die Schätzungen von Sprott von 588 Mio Pfund getroffen oder vielleicht sogar leicht übertroffen werden. Rechnen wir mal mit 600 Mio, dann wäre bei aktuellem Molypreis (30,00 $) allein für Davidson Ressourcen im Wert von unglaublichen 18,00 Mrd $ (hoffe, ich habe richtig gerechnet) im Boden. Klar sind diverse Kosten in Abzug zu bringen, darauf will ich hier nicht näher eingehen.

Allerdings erscheinen mir 50 Mio $ als Preis für eine 25 %-ige Beteiligung (auch unter "Freunden" ) nicht wirklich angemessen und auch nicht im Sinne der Aktionäre, wenngleich natürlich andere Synergieeffekte (Handelspartner im asiatischen Raum mit allem, was dazu gehört) nicht gering zu schätzen sind.

Sollte deine Anmerkung jedoch so zu verstehen sein, dass neben den 50 Mio in 2007 in den Folgejahren weitere Zahlungen seitens Sojitz erfolgen, würde mir dies eher einleuchten. Allerdings stellt sich dann die Frage, warum die Zahlung nicht in einer Summe erfolgen sollte. Sojitz wäre dazu sicherlich in der Lage.

Nun gut, im Ergebnis haben wir alle die gleiche Auffassung. Je länger die Eigenständigkeit von BPM dauert, umso besser für uns als Aktionäre.

Fakt ist, BPM ist ein Rohdiamant, der noch geschliffen wird.

Fakt ist auch, dass die nächsten Wochen und Monate noch viel kurstreibender Newsflow auf uns warten wird.

Fakt ist auch, dass die heute erwähnten Insiderverkäufe ein ganz normaler Vorgang sind (immerhin wird das Management zu einem Großteil mit Optionen bezahlt)

Fakt ist, dass ich trotz intensiver Prüfung kein solches Haar in meiner BPM-Suppe finde, welches mir den Geschmack auch nur zu einem Bruchteil vermiesen kann.

[Firsteven]

hallo schnucksche,

da BluePearl für Davidson bei den Behörden eine Genehmigung für den jährlichen Abbau von circa 5 Mio. IB (ergibt sich bei 0,35% Moly im Boden und den angegebenen Tonagen) für 10 Jahre eingereicht hat, macht das in Summe vorerst 50 Mio. IB.

Starten wird man mit einer Teilproduktion in 2008. Da wie wir wissen vieles vom weiteren Molypreis abhängen wird, macht man mit Sicherheit einen Vertrag analog der TC-Übernahme.

Heißt: abhängig vom Molypreis wird es noch weitere Zahlungen geben, diese aber erst ab 2009 und den folgenden Jahren.

Bei 5 Mio. IB erhielt Sojitz einen Anteil von 1,25 Mio. IB.

Dies macht bei dem derzeitigen Molypreis ca, 37,50 Mio. USD aus.
Davon gehen noch die Produktionskosten ab. Bleiben also so um die 25 MIo. USD Gewinn über.

Bei 50 Mio. hätte man also so 2 Jahre Gewinn investiert. Dazu wird man mit Sicherheit auch an den 50 Mio. USD für die Inbetriebnahme beteiligt.

Der Gewinn danach hängt aber vom Molypreis und der aus der Tonnage erzielten Menge Molybdän ab. Also wird man ein Agreement suchen, was diesen beiden Punkten Rechnung tragen wird.

Daher meine Vermutung, dass Sojitz vorerst nur so um die 50 Mio. USD zahlen wird und das Weitere sich dann aus dem Molypreis und der abgebauten Menge ergeben.

Zusätzlich wird aber auch eine Verlängerung der Minenlaufzeit nach den beantragten 10 Jahren noch mit eingearbeitet.


therefore

[Firsteven]

http://www.bluepearl.ca/pres_03-27-07/slide1.HTM


Es wurde auf der Homepage von Blue Pearl wieder eine aktualisierte Präsentation mit Stand 27./28.03.2007 eingestellt - einige neue Schaubilder und Daten sind hierin enthalten.

Sehr interessant zu lesen!!!

[Firsteven]

Danke Firsteven für den Hinweis auf die neuen Files zum Sprott-Moly-Fund bei SEDAR.

Unter diesen Texten findet sich auch ein Vertrag mit Blue Pearl über die Vergütung der Beratung und Moly-Lagerung (Quelle: Other material contract(s) mit Datum 5.4.2007 zu Sprott Moybdenum Participation Corporation bei SEDAR)).
In dem Long Form Prospectus war dieser Passus bereits angesprochen und in einem komplizierten Schachtelsatz verpackt. In meinem Posting vom 5.April war ich mir bereits nicht wirklich sicher, diesen Satz richtig interpretiert zu haben. Im Vertrag ist das nun etwas verständlicher dargestellt, sodass ich diese Berechnung noch einmal neu mache:


Blue Pearl erhält
1) 1/8 von 1% (also 0,125%) pro Jahr aus dem Marktwert des gelagerten Molybdäns (monatlich abzurechnen und zu bezahlen) für Beratungstätigkeit
2) Individuell vereinbarte Vergütung für einzelne Beratungsfälle (mindestens die industrie-üblichen Stundensätze oder Tagessätze)
3) Eine jährliche Lagergebühr errechnet sich wie folgt:
Es werden 3 Zahlen berechnet:
a) 0,25% aus dem Marktwert des gelagerten Molybdäns
b) 0,05 CAD pro Pfund des gelagerten Molybdäns
c) Der größere Betrag aus a) und b)
d) 0,10 CAD pro Pfund des gelagerten Molybdäns
Es wird zunächst der größere Betrag aus a) oder b) genommen und als c) bezeichnet. Zu bezahlen ist dann der kleinere Betrag aus c) und d).

Das bedeutet, für 1 Mio Pfund Moly im Lager erhält Blue Pearl bei einem Molypreis von 30 US-$
A) Beratungsgebühr
0,125% aus 30 Mio US-$= 37.500 US-$ = 43.000 CAD
B) Lagergebühr
a) = 0,25% aus 30 Mio US-$ = 75.000 US-$ = 86.000 CAD
b) = 0,05 CAD pro Pfund, also 50.000 CAD
c) = der niedrigere Wert aus a) und b), also 50.000 CAD
d) = 0,10 CAD pro Pfund, also 100.000 CAD
Es gilt der niedrigere Wert aus c) und d), also 50.000 CAD

zusammen also etwa 93.000 CAD pro 1 Mio Pfund eingelagerten Molys pro Jahr.

Im Long Form Prospectus (SEDAR 5.4.2007) gibt der Fond voraussichtliche Lagerkosten von 117.000 $ an. Demnach ist geplant, etwa 2,5 Mio Pfund Moly einzulagern.

Das würde Blue Pearl dann für Lagerung und Beratung etwa 230.000 CAD an Einnahmen bringen. Ganz nett, im Verhältniss zum Gesamtgewinn allerdings absolut unerheblich.

chartex

[Firsteven]

vom 07.04.2007 - Ken Reser:

Ryan's Notes: Molybdenum Report.

Moly holds on little business

The moly bulls were quick to point out last week that even

though business was slow, prices had not dropped significantly,

and in the US, prices actually moved up to be more in line

with prices in Europe. A US trader reported a consumer sale

of FeMo at just under $33.50, and intermerchant sales reportedly

were booked at even higher prices. Other traders countered

that they still were encountering some aggressive selling

by producers who were booking FeMo on either side of $30.

Truckload sales of oxide were concluded at $28.50.

With oxide and FeMo in tight supply, most traders believe

that the only direction prices can go is up. There are persistent

rumors concerning production bottlenecks in Chile.

Traders admit they have only anecdotal evidence, but oxide

availability appears to be less, not because of mining problems

in Chile but because of a backup at the roasters.

At the same time shipments from China are limited.

Chinese producers could be stockpiling material, in which

case, there is a potential for an export surge and lower prices.

Most sources do not expect that to take place. They say it is

more likely that Chinese producers are shipping material out

of China prior to import quotas taking effect. "In the shortterm

there could be a lot of Chinese moly available," a trader

said, "but in the long-term, I'm pretty positive on prices

going up."

Few US traders are willing to risk purchasing FeMo from

China unless the material already is on the water. The number

of contracts that Chinese suppliers have reneged on has

risen as prices have firmed. "There are some traders who

have 10 mt or 20 mt," said a source, "but they are treating the

material as if it is gold. They realize it may be the last few

tons of moly they have to sell."

Europe was particularly quiet last week. Briquette prices

slipped under $29 per lb and FeMo prices were off by a few

dollars. Two mills reportedly were able to buy FeMo at the

end of the week at just under $74 per kg. Traders said that

profit taking explained the lower sales prices, especially as

several European traders had loaded up on material in

January when prices were in the $60s

[Firsteven]

von therefore


Habe mir einmal die geänderte Präsentation von BluePearl angesehen.

Man geht davon aus, dass man die gesamte Rösterkapazität in Langeloth auslasten wird.

Rohmaterial zur Aufarbeitung von 10 Mio. IB will man zukaufen und 15 Mio. IB in Dienstleistung rösten.

Gehen wir hier nur von einem Gewinn pro Mio. IB von 5$ aus, dann hat man alleine durch den Röster noch ein kleines Zubrot von 125 Mio. USD Gewinn. Ist so ungefähr 1 $ Gewinn pro Aktie.

Wahrscheinlich wird man hier aber auch schon den angekündigten Engpass bei den Rösterkapazitäten ausnutzen und den Gewinn nach oben treiben.

So langsam verstehe ich auch die Worte von Ian, als er stolz berichtete, dass alleine Langeloth einen Wert von 1 Milliarde USD hat.

Wie ich das sehe, deckt alleine schon der Wert und das Ergebnis von Langeloth den momentanen Aktienkurs ab.

Mal sehen, wann das BluePearl-Marketing und Sprott den Punkt ausschlachten werden.

Ist doch schön, wenn alleine durch eine vom Markt bisher nicht beachtete Produktion der Aktienkurs schon abgedeckt ist.

So kann man dem Markt die Unterbewertung wieder einmal sehr gut deutlich machen. Dies sagt mehr aus, als tausende von sonstigen Unternehmenszahlen.

therefore

P.S. Bei 7,50 USD Gewinn pro 1 Mio. IB wäre die Aktie alleine durch die Produktion in Langeloth schon unterbewertet.

[Firsteven]

stimme ich dir voll zu therefore!!!!


Hallo Algol,

momentan werden neue Ressourcenkalkulationen bei TC und Endako durchgeführt.

Hierbei wird ermittelt, welche Ressourcen sind bei einem Marktpreis von 10 USD gewinnbringend abbaubar.

Die bisherigen Kalkuationen gingen von Marktpreisen von 5 (TC) und 3,5 USD (Endako) aus.

Anhand dem Schaubild des Abbauplans bei TC in der Unternehmenspräsentation kann man unschwer erkennen, dass sich die Ressourcen ungefähr verdopplen werden.

Bei Endako ist man sehr euphorisch und geht von einer Vervielfachung der momentan recht niedrigen Ressourcen aus. Deshalb plant man hier auch für ca, 250 Mio. USD in dennächsten beiden Jahren eine Super-Pitmine aufzubauen.

Mit der Erweiterung bei Endako will man auch weitere unliebsame Molyexplorer aus dem Markt drängen.

Der Sachverhalt ist recht einfach erklärt.
Eine Molybdänmine in Betrieb zu nehmen kostet so um die 500 Mio. USD. Dann hat man aber noch keinen Röster. Hier ist man dann auf die jetzigen Produzenten angewiesen.

Alleine aus diesem Aspekt heraus, werden die meisten Explorer nicht in Betrieb gehen können. Vom benötigten Minenpersonal, den Materialien usw. wollen wir erst gar nicht reden.

Da der weltweite bedarf an Molybdän jährlich um 4% zunimmt (2006 6%), ist es nur gut, wenn noch einige zusätzliche Molybdänminen in Betrieb gehen.

Solange der Preis von Molybdän über 12 USD bleibt, ist BluePearl deutlich unterbewertet.

therefore

[Firsteven]

von videomart:


China Molybdenum $886 mln IPO draws big investors

HONG KONG, April 9 (Reuters) - China Molybdenum Co. Ltd. is raising as much as US$886 million in a Hong Kong IPO, and eight cornerstone investors including Hong Kong tycoons Lee Shau Kee and Li Ka-shing have already bought 20 percent of the share sale, sources close to the deal said.

The firm, the country\'s largest producer of the minor metal used in steel production, kicked off a management road show on Monday. It is offering 1.08 billion shares, or 25 percent of its enlarged share capital, between HK$5.00 to HK$6.40 apiece, the sources said.

The issue price range values the firm at 10.8 times to 13.8 times forecast 2007 earnings, almost a 20 percent discount to rival Hunan Nonferrous Metals Co.\'s (2626.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) 17 times price-to-earning ratio at the high end.


Reuters Pictures

[Firsteven]

von cuba libre:


noch einmal die aussagen von mr. mcdonald zu übernahmeplänen/-spekulationen sowie in verbindung damit zur "konkurrenz" in form von (junior)explorern:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market,” McDonald observed. “Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.” He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.” He explained his own personal experience, “When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And what about those other junior molybdenum companies? “We aren’t going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits,” he responded. “Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we’d rather buy something that’s either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

folgende aspekte werden deutlich:

> es erscheint unrealistisch, daß mehr als ein explorer den sprung zum produzenten schafft. der finanzielle aufwand, das zu stemmen, sei erheblich.
> es besteht jedoch trotzdem nicht die absicht, derartige molyvorkommen aufzukaufen. der fin. aufwand hierfür stünde wohl in keinem verhältnis dazu, diese bestände zu vermarkten.
> man muß das ganze auch in dem zusammenhang damit sehen, daß bpm selbst erst einmal die eigenen recourccen "ausschlachten" möchte und bekanntl. daran massiv arbeitet.
> als da wäre: zum einen davidson: “It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world.” He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.
> zum anderen endako (‘super pit.’): Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a ‘super pit.’ The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. “I feel pretty good about that, it’s pretty realistic,” he told us. “We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors.”
> bereits jetzt produziert bpm 5 % der molyweltnachfrage und verarbeitet sogar 9 %!
> auch wenn die molynachfrage weiter steigt, kann es m. e. nicht im interesse von bpm sein, dem markt übermäßig viel an moly zur verfügung zu stellen. das würde sich vermutl. eher preismindernd auswirken.
> also ein nachvollziehbarer gedanke, sich unternehmen "einzuverleiben", das/die bereits in produktion sind und insofern auch bereits einen konkr. marktanteil haben.
> es gibt nur wenige reine molyproduzenten. bpm ist meines wissens einer von vier (in nordamerika, richtig? )
> früher gab es keine (bzw. kaum) reine molyproduzenten. meistens war moly ein bei(bzw. neben)produkt bei der kupferförderung.
> bis 09/1999 war z. b. amax cyprus der weltgrösste molyproduzent. Cyprus Amax Minerals Company, headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, is a leading producer of copper, the world\'s largest producer of molybdenum, and holds a 30% interest in Kinross Gold. Cyprus Amax is exploring for minerals worldwide. also ein unternehmen mit einer breit gefächerten palette, 1999 übrigens geschluckt von phelps dodge: Based on Phelps Dodge\'s closing share price yesterday, the agreement currently values Cyprus Amax at $19.80 per share, or a total equity value of approximately $1.8 billion, based on approximately 90.7 million Cyprus Amax shares outstanding.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=…
> noch einmal zum thema kupfer/moly: aufgrund der nähe zum kupfer (Molybdän kommt natürlich meistens als Molybdänit (Molybdänglanz, MoS2) mit einer Konzentration von etwa 0,3 % vor. Daneben gibt es noch Wulfenit (Gelbbleierz, PbMoO4) und Powellit (Ca,Mo,W)O4. Zur Verhüttung gelangt überwiegend das durch den Kupferbergbau anfallende Koppelprodukt Molybdänit. Große Vorkommen finden sich in der Mongolei. Durch die immer stärker werdende Bedeutung von Molybdän entstehen immer mehr reine Molybdänproduzenten. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybd%C3%A4n) macht es vermutl. sinn, überlegungen auch in diese richtung (näml. kupfer) anzustellen. oder?
> es mag auch andere aspekte geben, die ein engagement in kupfer reizvoll erscheinen lassen:

> frage: spielt eigentl. kupfer bei den akt. bpm-projekten keine rolle? bzw. warum ist das so?
> könnte es sein, daß eine erweiterung auf andere segmente, ein eigenes "übernommen-werden" erschwert?
um z. b. bei phelps dodge zu bleiben: die haben sich wie gesagt erst 1999 amex cyprus "einverleibt", im letzten jahr wurde folgender deal mit inco und falconbridge gestemmt...

28.06.2006 13:07:00

Phelps Dodge, Inco und Falconbridge einigen sich auch 56 Mrd. USD Dreifachzusammenschluss und schaffen eines der weltweit grössten Bergbauunternehmen

PHOENIX und TORONTO, June 28 /PRNewswire/ --
- Mit der Transaktion entsteht der weltweit grösste Nickelproduzent und der grösste an der Börse gehandelte Kupferproduzent
- Kombination hoher Qualität mit langlebigen Assets in Regionen mit geringen geopolitischen Risiken und wertvollen Erschliessungsprojekten; verbesserte Investitionsmöglichkeiten in langfristiges Wachstum
- Bis 2008 Synergien von 900 Mio. USD jährlich; Zusammenschluss wirkt sich auf den Cashflow sofort und auf den Gewinn je Aktie ab 2008 zuschreibend aus
- Angebot von Phelps Dodge für Zusammenschluss von Inco/Falconbridge mit 80,13 CAD je Aktie veranschlagt; Vereinbarung ermächtigt Inco zur Erhöhung des Angebots für Falconbridge auf 62,11 CAD je Aktie
- Phelps Dodge kündigt auch Aktienrückkaufprogramm in Höhe von bis zu 5 Mrd. USD an
Die Phelps Dodge Corporation (NYSE: PD), Inco Limited (NYSE: N; TSX) und die Falconbridge Limited (NYSE: FAL; TSX) gaben heute bekannt, im Rahmen einer 56 Mrd. USD(1) Transaktion zu fusionieren und so ein in Nordamerika ansässiges Bergbauunternehmen zu schaffen, das zu den weltweit grössten gehören wird. Das neue Unternehmen wird unter dem Namen Phelps Dodge Inco Corporation firmieren.
Phelps Dodge Inco wird weltweit führender Nickelproduzent, weltweit grösster, börsennotierter Kupferproduzent und führender Produzent von Molybdän und Kobalt sein. Zudem wird das Unternehmen ein erstklassiges Portfolio an Wachstumsprojekten und hervorragenden Explorationsmöglichkeiten haben. Zum Quartalsende am 31. März 2006 konnten die drei Unternehmen Erträge von 6,3 Mrd. USD und einen Überschuss vor Zinsen, Steuern, Abschreibungen und Tilgung von 1,9 Mrd. USD ausweisen.
...
http://www.finanzen.net/news/news_detail.asp?NewsNr=409945

> ein schlucken eines reinen molyprodenzenten wäre vielleicht noch reizvoll und schnell vollzogen. aber: wäre ein unternehmen, was etwas diversifizierter aufgestellt ist, (mittlerweile) evtl. weniger interessant? denn: solche (großen) deals hat man - wie aufgezeigt - bereits einige male getätigt...
> andereseits könnte ich mir vorstellen, daß mr. mcdonald nicht alle eigenen pläne jetzt schon in die weltgeschichte hinausposaunt. wie wir alle wissen, schläft der mann nicht auf dem baum (ganz im gegenteil!). also wenn ich mr. mcd. wäre, würde ich selbst nicht jetzt bereits (halbwegs) konkrete ziele meiner expansionsabsichten (inkl. entspr. zeithorizonte) öffentl. machen. andersrum: könnte es evtl. ganz anders laufen als er jetzt sagt? d. h. aktive übernahme in einem ganz anderen zeithorizont und auch in eine ganz andere richtung...? ist aber nur eine spekulation....
> noch etwas: aus "wheaton-river-zeiten" soll mr. mcdonald als "liebhaber" von übernahmen gelten. wurde so ähnl. hier schon mal dargestellt. kann das vielleicht noch jemand konkretisieren?

[Cuba_Libre]

da der "sprott-faktor" keinen unwesentl. einfluss auf die entwicklung bei bpm hat, habe ich mal ein bißchen was zu "canada’s legendary natural resource investor"/"one of Canada's top fund managers and a highly respected Bay Street (Toronto) financial guru, eric sprott" ausgegraben. zunächst noch einmal die aktivitäten im bereich "social sponsoring" (s posting #100844):

vorab jedoch der vollständigkeit halber:
> sprott hatte bisher bereits 13% an bpm gehalten
> über das private placement vom 03.04. hat die sprott molybdenum participation corporation außerdem 3 mio. shares (bekanntl. zu je $12) erhalten
> alles shares, die in festen händen sind!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Ottawa Hospital Receives the Largest Individual Donation in its History: $7-Million Donation from Investor Eric Sprott and his wife Vizma will put Canada at the Forefront of Stem Cell Research



July 25, 2006

One of Canada’s most successful investors, Eric Sprott, and his wife Vizma, have made a $7-million donation to the Ottawa Health Research Institute (OHRI), the research arm of The Ottawa Hospital. The gift – the largest individual donation in the hospital’s history – will go toward the creation of an endowment fund to support the new Sprott Centre for Stem Cell Research, named in honour of the generous donors.
http://www.ohri.ca/newsroom/newsstory.asp?ID=42
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The $20-million man
Eric Sprott is Carleton\'s most generous donor
...
Sprott recently donated $10 million to Carleton\'s school of business, topping his previous $5 million donation in 1997 which supported a student bursary fund. In recognition of his lengthy record of giving to Carleton, the university has renamed the school of business in his honour.

His donation is among the most substantial alumni donations to any university in Canada and brings his total investment to Carleton -- with matching government funds -- to more than $20 million.

"Eric Sprott is Carleton\'s most generous philanthropist," says Susan Doyle, Assistant Vice-President, Development and Alumni. "Eric has been involved with the School of Business since his graduation and has stayed in touch with his classmates throughout the past 36 years since he graduated. This commitment is inspiring."
...
http://magazine.carleton.ca/2001_spring/499.htm
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++




Eric Sprott
Sprott Securities Inc.

Winning with high stakes.

Eric Sprott is at the top of his game career-wise. Known for his willingness to go against the herd and take big positions when he spots opportunities, the 57-year-old chairman of Toronto-based Sprott Securities Inc. has had the hottest hand in the fund industry lately.

For the year ended Dec. 31, his Sprott Hedge—an alternative strategies fund requiring a minimum investment of $150,000—was the top-performing fund in Canada with a gain of 64.2%. It was the first full year for the $137-million fund, which was introduced in November 2000 and is structured as a limited partnership.

With a taste for the thrill of high-stakes blackjack at the casinos, it's no wonder Sprott is in his element at the helm of a hedge fund, which offers excitement and money-making opportunities in both rising and falling markets.

"We're always considering the upside in every position we hold, relative to everything else that's available," Sprott says. "Philosophically, it doesn't matter to us which way the market is going. In a hedge fund, when you can go short as well as long, you can have someone on base all the time."

Almost as sweet for Sprott last year was the performance of Sprott Canadian Equity. Its 43.7% return for 2001 led all funds in the Canadian small-cap category, where the median return was a scant 1.4%. Formed in September 1997, the fund's overall performance to date has earned it the top five-star Morningstar rating. It has a lower minimum investment of $25,000.

Sprott began in the investment business in 1968, after graduating with a bachelor of commerce from Carleton University in Ottawa. He worked as an analyst for Merrill Lynch Canada Inc., moving three years later to Loewen Ondaatje & Co., where he stayed for nine years before launching his own firm.

The Sprott family of funds is fairly young, and has been expanding. In November, Sprott launched Sprott Gold and Precious Metals. He says he wants to take advantage of what he expects will be a return to popularity for precious metals as stock markets stagnate and investors seek alternatives to low-yielding interest-paying securities.

Sprott is also heavily invested in gold stocks in the "long" portion of Sprott Hedge. Other holdings include some "economically insensitive" stocks such as environmental-services firms Bennett Environmental Inc. and Trojan Technologies Inc., and grocer Sobeys Inc. In addition, he has what he describes as a few undervalued special situations such as Direct Focus Inc., a maker of fitness products, and Hurricane Hydrocarbons Ltd., which is increasing production in Kazakhstan.

Although his long positions have performed well, Sprott believes equities are in a prevailing downward slump. "The portfolio has bearish personality," he says. "We're expecting to see more negative developments, such as earnings disappointments and job layoffs. Confidence is being rattled, and people will be adjusting their expectations downward. We don't think we've seen the bottom for stocks."

Sprott was therefore a net 20% short recently, consisting of a 90% short position which outweighs his 70% in long holdings. He currently holds about 80 shorts and 40 longs. He tends to concentrate heavily in a few big positions, and says his 10 largest holdings could easily account for 70% of fund assets. But there's no limit on the number of holdings in the fund.

In addition to short-selling, the fund will use leverage up to a maximum ratio of 2:1. The fund's annual turnover is about 100%, which Sprott says is low for a hedge fund.

Sprott won't allow his short position in any one company to rise to more than 7% of assets. On the long side, he won't go to more than 15% at cost in any one stock, although this could rise to 20% if the stock goes up. He is more diversified on the short side, where the risks are higher.

Sprott's short positions tend to be in large-cap, highly liquid stocks. Though he has no foreign-content restrictions, the shorts are currently equally divided between U.S. and Canadian names. As for industry bets, Sprott is short in the financial-services sector, which he expects will be hurt by a stock-market downturn. He says he is also shorting several big-name technology stocks.
http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/industry/managermonitor…
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Who is Eric Sprott?


The Sprott family: Eric, Vizma, Julijana (upper left) and Larisa

Title:
Founder and Chairman of Sprott Securities Inc., Toronto, one of Canada's consistently top-ranked investment firms.

Born:
1944 in Ottawa.

Education:
Bachelor of Commerce, 1965, Carleton University (voted by his classmates as most likely to succeed).
He is a Certified Chartered Accountant.

Marital Status:
Married to Vizma Sprott.

Children:
Julijana, 25, and Larisa, 23.

Lives:
Oakville, Ontario

Hobbies:
Collects Inuit sculptures and paintings, golf, gambling.

History of giving to Carleton:
First gift of $100 in 1973. Established a $5-million bursary endowment at Carleton in 1997 which was matched by provincial grant and today is worth $30 million, annually giving out 500-600 bursaries a year. In 2001, he donated $10 million to the School of Business which was renamed in his honour.

Volunteer Activities:
Chair, Carleton University School of Business Fundraising Steering Committee; Member, Carleton Capital Campaign Committee. He is also frequently called upon by the National Post to comment on the financial markets.

Philosophy on giving:
"I deeply believe in helping those who need help. My greatest belief is that you can't take it with you so why not enjoy the spirit of giving in the present?"
http://magazine.carleton.ca/2001_Spring/438.htm
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Energy Guru Eric Sprott Wants More Molybdenum!!!

Canada's legendary natural resource investor, Eric Sprott, has got moly fever! His eponymous management firm is now preparing a molybdenum participation fund, which will buy and sell physical molybdenum. The Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp will also invest in companies that explore for, mine and process the metal.

Sound familiar? Uranium Participation Corp debuted in late 2005, accumulating physical uranium for as low as US$20/pound range. Shares in the uranium fund nearly doubled in 2006 in tandem with the spot uranium price.

We interviewed Eric Sprott in October 2004, when he forecast the steep rise in uranium and offered his selection. As usual Sprott Asset Management had entered the uranium market through large, very speculative investments in complete unknowns. Since then, those unfamiliar penny stocks have begun boasting market capitalizations well above $1 billion. Examples include SXR Uranium One, which recently announced a $5 billion merger with UrAsia, and Paladin Resources, which once traded at for three cents, and is now capitalized around C$3 billion.

We followed many 'Sprott stocks,' some trading sub-$1/share in 2004, and which have recently traded above $12/share – such as Energy Metals. At one point, the Sprott family of funds held more than 20 percent of the shares in uranium companies such as Energy Metals and Strathmore Minerals. In late February, Jim Cramer recommended Energy Metals on his 'Mad Money' television show.

Last summer's big question in Canada's financial circles and in the media was: 'What will be Eric Sprott's next big thing?' We concluded it would be molybdenum stocks and reported on that in late July. We interviewed Sprott Asset Management research associate Maria Smirnova and discussed how investing in molybdenum stocks might be another way to ride the energy bull.

While nickel, zinc and uranium prices have soared, molybdenum lagged behind in 2006. After a stellar 2005, during which moly prices jumped to a record $40, increased byproduct mining from copper producers brought the moly price back into the twenties.

But that may not last long. Changes in China's export laws may help the molybdenum price firm up, according to Ken Reser, one of the early molybdenum mining commentators. In our email exchanges, Reser strongly believes the molybdenum price could go much higher. He's backed Adanac Molybdenum Corp, a company which hopes to bring its large Ruby Creek deposit into production in 2009.

Early Sprott favorite, Blue Pearl Mining, has since become the world's fifth largest primary molybdenum producer and is the world's largest publicly traded primary molybdenum company. The key word is "since." After Eric Sprott began backing the company, Blue Pearl announced the acquisition of privately held Thompson Creek Metals Company for US$575 million. The acquisition brought the then-tiny company into the molybdenum mining spotlight. During 2007, the company plans to produce about 21 million pounds of molybdenum (gross value at Friday's closing price: US$593 million). That's about five percent of global molybdenum mining production!

Another Sprott favorite, Roca Mines hopes to commence molybdenum mining operations this spring as a small-scale producer in British Columbia. The company hopes to expand its molybdenum deposit by pouring in some of the cash flow from its mining production during the first year in hopes of building a much bigger moly mine.

Judging from Eric Sprott's keen investment eye, the molybdenum price may soon be rising again. And, of course, so will the moly stocks his fund invests in. (We have no relationship with Sprott Asset Management.)
http://www.stockhouse.ca/blogs.asp?page=viewpost&blogID=496&…
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Major CHF Donor Eric Sprott Named Entrepreneur of the Year for Ontario


Eric Sprott, major donor to CHF and CEO of Sprott Asset Management, was named Entrepreneur of the Year for Ontario by Ernst & Young.

Eric Sprott, a major donor to CHF, was named the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year for Ontario.

Since 2002, Mr. Sprott has donated over 5 million dollars to CHF's programs, including special funds designated to support peace-building in Sudan and post-earthquake rehabilitation in Pakistan.

Mr. Sprott has spent over 35 years in the investment industry. As CEO and chief investment officer of Sprott Asset Management, his company has become one of Canada's largest independently owned institutional brokerage firms, with $3.6 billion of assets under management.

A noted philanthropist, Mr. Sprott and his family established The Sprott Foundation in 1985.
http://www.chf-partners.ca/news/latest_news/Sprott.shtml
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Investment leader earns prestigious business award
Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott named
Ernst & Young Entrepreneur Of The Year(R) for Ontario

TORONTO, Oct. 19 /CNW/ - Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management CEO and chief investment officer, is the recipient of the Ontario region Ernst & Young Entrepreneur Of The Year 2006 award. Mr. Sprott also received one of 12 industry category awards (see below) presented this evening at a gala banquet in Toronto.
"Eric Sprott's innovative vision and calculated risk-taking have created one of the most successful investment management companies in Canada, and even across the world," says Joe Telebar, national and Ontario director of the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur Of The Year awards program. "Time and time again, Mr. Sprott makes forward-thinking decisions, based on solid research and analysis, to provide investors with outstanding returns," he says.
Sprott Asset Management is a Toronto-based private company with
$3.6 billion of assets under management, primarily for nstitutions,
endowments and high net worth individuals. Mr. Sprott has built Sprott Asset Management into one of the country's fastest-growing and most successful private investment fund companies; the company's mutual and hedge funds are among the world's top performers. Mr. Sprott has developed a strong reputation
for being ahead of the curve, a skill honed through an in-depth understanding of the current economic environment as well as assessing the path of future financial markets.
Mr. Sprott has spent over 35 years in the investment industry, beginning his career at Merrill Lynch as a research analyst. In 1981, he founded Sprott Securities Inc. (SSI), which has become one of Canada's largest independently owned institutional brokerage firms. At SSI, Mr. Sprott was chief executive officer and chief investment officer, where he directed the investment
strategy of the firm. After establishing Sprott Asset Management in
August 2000 as an entity separate from SSI, Mr. Sprott divested his entire ownership of SSI to its employees and chose to focus his sole attention on the investment management business. Before starting his investment career, Mr. Sprott graduated from his hometown Carleton University with a Bachelor of Commerce degree, after which he earned his CA designation in Toronto.
Mr. Sprott is also a noted philanthropist. He and his family established The Sprott Foundation in 1985-they have been generous patrons of the arts, and also dedicated significant resources to the alleviation of hunger in the developing world. Mr. Sprott further established the Sprott Foundation Bursary at Carleton University in 1989. Since its inception, over 3,500 Sprott
Bursaries have been awarded to students in need. Mr. Sprott's gifts to Carleton rank among the most significant alumni donations to any university in Canada. In 2001, Carleton named the Eric Sprott School of Business, in recognition of his exceptional generosity. In recognition of Mr. Sprott's outstanding career as an entrepreneur, investor and philanthropist, he received his honorary Doctorate of Laws from Carleton University in 2003.
As the Ontario region award recipient, Mr. Sprott will compete with top entrepreneurs from the Pacific, Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic regions for the coveted national honour of Entrepreneur Of The Year, to be announced November 2 in Ottawa. In June 2007, Canada's Entrepreneur Of The Year will move on to the world stage, joining over 35 country recipients participating in the international competition for the title of World Entrepreneur Of The Year.
...
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2006/19/c2…

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BUY-SIDE SPEAKER SERIES #5
ERIC SPROTT
November 8, 2006

Eric Sprott, Chairman, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Sprott Asset Management delivered his views on many aspects of the investment industry to a jam-packed room of YFP members on November 8th. His stories were both captivating and effective in relaying his thoughts and advice to our group of young professionals. Mr. Sprott, recipient of the 2006 Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year Award has over 35 years of investment industry experience and has made a name for himself and his company through his funds' outstanding returns, particularly in gold and energy.

One of the key recommendations Mr. Sprott made to the group was to not follow the status quo. Lots of things in life follow the same rules as investments; more reward can be achieved by taking on more risk. This was meant to target the research analysts and associates in the group. Mr. Sprott believes that too many of the research analysts on the Street are caught up in being part of the consensus and are afraid to make calls that may be too far from the mean. He also noted that he pays little attention to the consensus calls and will often skip over research of the sort. Instead, he looks for the seemingly outrageous predictions. Not necessarily because he believes they are correct, but because he thinks that he is much more likely to find some point that catches his eye and may spark an investment idea or opportunity. He's not going to read the report calling for $55 oil, he's going to read the report calling for $150 oil. He reiterated to the members in attendance to not be afraid to make a risky call. If you end up being right, that's what makes you a star - and Mr. Sprott speaks from experience, as he's been extremely profitable on a number of 'long shots'.

Another interesting viewpoint Mr. Sprott had was risk management. Especially since the take off in hedge funds over the past few years, Eric is constantly being asked, "How do you manage risk?". To questions like this he simply answers, "By making money!". While Sprott does believe that it is extremely dangerous to become over-levered (i.e. Amaranth), he does not focus a lot of attention to the concept of managing risk. For every dollar he is long, he will also be a dollar short, but his main focus is one of developing profitable strategies.

Eric concluded his presentation by providing the attendees with some insight into a few stocks and industries he feels will become increasing successful going forward. He also touched on some of the problems society is facing on a global scale, and how we as young professionals are going to be affected.

YFP would like to thank Mr. Sprott for sharing his valuable time and ideas with us. As well, thanks go to TD Newcrest for hosting and providing lunch for the group.
http://www.youngfinance.ca/Reviews/11-08-2006-Sprott.htm
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Eric Sprott and Sasha Solunac: The central bank gambit
Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2006-06-24 01:31. Section: Daily Dispatches

Eric Sprott and Sasha Solunac of Sprott Asset Management in Toronto write that the great contest of the world financial system is between central banks, on one hand, and, on the other, markets striving to break free. The primary target of the central banks, Sprott and Solunac maintain, is gold.

Their essay, "The Central Bank Gambit," can be found at the Sprott Internet site here:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-2006.pdf
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Published on 18 Mar 2005 by The Globe and Mail. Archived on 20 Mar 2005.
Fear and Loving of Hot Commodities
by John Heinzl

Eric Sprott could have told you this was coming. Canada's top fund manager was buying energy stocks long before oil -- and other commodities -- became the hottest investing trend since the technology bubble.

"We like to be early on things," says the chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management Inc., whose resource-laden Canadian equity fund returned a sizzling 38 per cent last year, earning top spot in its class. The Sprott Energy Fund, launched last year, soared 72 per cent in the six months to Feb. 28.

The world is riding a commodities boom that is shooting prices skyward for everything from crude and copper to soybeans and coffee, and investors who got on board early are making a killing. Driving the rally are demand from China, looming shortages of key raw materials and speculation by hedge funds.

With the benchmark Commodities Research Bureau index zooming to a 24-year high, some are warning of a bubble that could soon burst. But others say the party is just getting started.

"I believe that investing in commodities will represent an enormous opportunity for the next decade or so," says Jim Rogers, a U.S. fund manager and author of the book Hot Commodities.

For investors who think they've missed the train, there's reason to believe the ride may be far from over. Mr. Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, points out that the last big commodities cycle lasted a full 14 years, from 1968 to 1982.

The boom won't be without its bumps, he warns. Look no further than oil, which climbed to $55 (U.S.) a barrel last October only to plunge to less than $41 in December, before beginning its latest uptrend.

No commodity is drawing more attention than crude, which set jaws dropping again this week as it briefly pushed through $57 a barrel. But even as oil hits new highs, investors such as Mr. Sprott are betting on where the big money will go next.

While he remains a huge fan of oil, he's also gambling on coal and uranium, which have already risen sharply in price and could go higher as the world exhausts its finite supply of crude. Plenty of investors appear to share that view.

Mr. Sprott's biggest problem is that investors are handing over cash faster than he can invest it, forcing him to close the Sprott Canadian Equity fund on March 1 -- the second time he has shut the window since last June. Today, the nearly $1-billion (Canadian) fund has 23 per cent of its assets in cash. Its heaviest weighting is in energy stocks, at 37 per cent. Next are gold shares and bullion, at 31 per cent.

Mr. Sprott has been tarred as one of the biggest bears on the Street. And while it's true that he has a pessimistic view of the debt-bloated U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar and stock markets in general -- hence his attraction to gold -- he is wildly bullish about energy.

Two words explain why: Hubbert's Peak. After watching in amazement as crude began to climb sharply several years ago, Mr. Sprott began to study the influential theories of the late Marion King Hubbert, a geophysicist whose 1956 prediction that U.S. oil production would peak and start declining around 1970 was initially dismissed by critics but later proved to be remarkably accurate.

Particularly influential on Mr. Sprott was the book Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth Deffeyes, a Princeton University professor and former colleague of Mr. Hubbert's. Taking the theory a step further, the book predicts world oil production will top out this decade, plunging economies into recession as supplies fall and oil prices soar.

"The peak is this year. We're there . . . Most of the evidence shows that," says Mr. Sprott, as he launches into an explanation of why the petroleum age is drawing to a close.

At the root of the shortage thesis is the observation that, in any oil field, production follows a bell-shaped curve, rising sharply as the easy oil is extracted, before hitting a peak and declining as the difficulty of pumping the oil increases.

Oil discoveries follow a similar pattern. Today, the vast majority of the world's oil comes from fields discovered before 1973, most of which are in decline. New discoveries account for just one-quarter of oil produced annually, he says. The emergence of China and India is only going to drive up demand.

An oil shortage is unavoidable, and "everybody's got to get a grip on it," he says.

Others say the Eric Sprotts of the world should get a grip.

"The world isn't running out of petroleum." Merrill Lynch analyst John Herrlin says in a recent note to clients, in which he questions whether crude will hold above $46 (U.S.) a barrel in 2005 and 2006. "The degree of groupthink on higher oil or natural gas prices we've not seen in our careers," he says.

Some analysts are even drawing comparisons with the tech-stock bubble of the late 1990s. In a report this month titled "Energy Domination: Sustainable or Just Another Mania?", Scotia Capital analyst Vincent Delisle warns that the "complacency" among investors in energy shares "could prove harmful."

To illustrate his point, the report features a chart of the S&P/TSX energy index rising steadily from 1999-2005, superimposed over the Nasdaq composite index climbing from 1994 to 2000 -- and then falling off a cliff.

The charts aren't the only similarities between oil and tech. When tech stocks were soaring, pundits were also heralding a new era where the old rules no longer applied. "Traders dubbing the current environment for oil as a new paradigm also serve as an eerie reminder of hype," Mr. Delisle says.

In yet another warning sign, data that should be bearish for crude prices -- such as a recent buildup of oil inventories and signs of softening demand in China -- are being largely ignored by markets, he adds.

Not surprisingly, Mr. Sprott scoffs at comparisons between oil and tech. "I don't think it's a bubble. I think it's a long-term secular problem," he says.

And that problem will usher in sweeping changes as society searches for alternative ways to heat their homes, power their cars and keep factories humming, he says.

Coal and uranium would appear to be unlikely candidates to solve the world's energy woes. Coal, after all, is responsible for most of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. And nuclear power, though cleaner, is plagued by questions about safety, with memories of Chernobyl and Three Mile Island casting a pall over the industry.

But when the world realizes it is running out of oil and gas, people will have little choice but to embrace coal and uranium, which are relatively cheap and abundant, he says. And, unlike solar, hydrogen and wind power, they have proven they are up to the job, despite their many shortcomings.

The demand and supply sides of the uranium equation are both promising. With electricity use in China growing at about 15 per cent a year, the country plans to boost its nuclear generating capacity fivefold by 2020. Western countries are also taking another look at nuclear power to reduce emissions and mitigate rising costs for natural gas to generate electricity.

On the supply side, the world's nuclear facilities consume about 170 million pounds of uranium each year, roughly double what is pulled out of the ground, according to figures from Sprott Asset Management.

"Given the continued proliferation of nuclear power stations, the prospects for uranium producers are good," Malvin Spooner, president of Toronto-based Mavrix Fund Management Inc., writes in his book Resources Rock.

Underscoring the bullish case for uranium, UBS Securities Canada Inc. this week upgraded Canadian uranium giant Cameco Corp. to "buy" from "neutral."

The shares gained $2.90 (Canadian) to $58.20 on the Toronto Stock Exchange yesterday, up from about $20 a year ago.

In keeping with his desire to stay ahead of the curve, Mr. Sprott has already sold his position in Cameco and is adding smaller companies that offer the potential to become "multibaggers."

His Canadian holdings include Strathmore Minerals Corp., UEX Corp. and International Uranium Corp. Foreign companies include Aflease Gold and Uranium Resources Ltd., which trades in South Africa, and Paladin Resources Ltd., which is listed in Australia.

On the coal side, his holdings include Western Canadian Coal Corp., Pine Valley Mining Corp., Fortune Minerals Ltd. and Australia-listed Macarthur Coal Ltd.

Although coal -- which accounts for a majority of China's electricity generation -- is a massive polluter, new technologies show promise for dramatically cutting emissions, Mr. Sprott says. To that end, his funds have invested in KFx Inc., a U.S. company that developed a clean-coal technology.

Mr. Sprott isn't bullish on commodities across the board. He's especially wary of copper and other cyclical metals, which could be sideswiped by a slowdown in the global economy.

"Let's face it, all commodities look pretty hot here," he says. "It's a game that's very rewarding when it's working, and when it decides to shut down it will be brutal."

But if his instincts about energy are right, "we're going to scrape through."

Cover Story

How to profit form the commodities boom

Eric Sprott and other money managers have made huge gains on their bets on commodities, especially in the red-hot energy sector. Is there more money to be made in oil and other energy plays such as coal and uranium?

Coal
+107%

May be a big polluter, but Chinese steel mills and power plants are gobbling it up as fast as it comes out of the ground.

Uranium
+129%

With the long term supply of oil and natural gas in doubt, investors are betting that nuclear power will rush in to fill the void.

Oil
+175%

Soaring demand from the Far East and questions about long term supply have driven crude up more than five fold since it traded at less than $11 in 1998.

Increase in commodity prices since Jan. 1, 2002.

Coal: Future contract on N.Y. Mercantile Exchange.

Uranium: Yellowknife (processed) per pound.

Oil: Future contract per barrel on N.Y. Mercantile Exchange.
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March 19, 2007
SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.


Eric Sprott has a simple formula for success: Maintain a high performance level, or risk losing clients.

Eric Sprott stays on top of the investment management industry by keeping ahead of shifts in market trends. His four decades of experience have Sprott Asset Management Inc. and its clients profiting nicely, and earned him Ernst & Young’s 2006 Ontario Region Entrepreneur of the Year honours.

Eric Sprott says there are three keys to success as an investment manager.

They are, in no particular order: Performance, performance and performance.

It really is a no-brainer equation, he says. If you perform well, the value of the assets you manage—in his case, 11mutual funds —grows quickly. If you perform well and make people great returns on their investment, others will come knocking on your door, asking you to do the same for them.

“As it happens, we have done especially well and, most important, done well consistently over almost a quarter century in this and in predecessor companies,” he says. “The first year we started Sprott Asset Management, we had about $130-million in assets to manage. Today, we are topping the $4.2-billionmark.” Many of those funds have reported stellar performance. Take Sprott Gold and Precious Metals Fund. Since 2001, it has reported returns averaging a touch better than 40% a year. Sprott Energy Fund, launched in 2004, has produced returns averaging 35.9% a year.

Sprott Hedge Fund LP, created in 2000, shows a 29.45% annual return and the relatively new Sprott Opportunities Hedge Fund, created in 2004, reports returns averaging 34.2% a year.

With investment returns at those levels, it is easy to understand why Ernst & Young named Mr. Sprott, 61, this year’s Ontario Region winner in its 2006 Entrepreneur of the Year Awards.

Mr. Sprott’s determination to create mechanisms t hat deliver maximuminvestment performance dates back four decades.

After graduating in commerce from Carleton University in Ottawa — the business school there is now named after him — he joined a Bay Street investment house. His forte became institutional investors — the pension funds, insurance companies and university endowments that turn to men and women such as Mr. Sprott to make their capital work for them.

It is most usually painstaking, meticulous work. Institutional investors do not “play the markets.” The steely-eyed men and women in charge of their assets make decisions based on hard facts, supportable projections and diligent research, not on hunches.

What brings in and keeps the business, however, is performance. Institutional investors do not want excuses, they want results.

In 1981, full of the confidence gained through working for others, Mr. Sprott went on his own, launching Sprott Securities, a boutique brokerage focusing on managing corporate and institutional investments in the fast-growing small- to mid-cap markets. By the end of the 1990s, Sprott Securities had grown to more than 70 employees with offices in three Canadian cities, making it one of the largest and most successful independent brokerages in the industry.

But the industry was changing; Mr.

Sprott decided to change with it. He saw the potential to launch a new company whose focus was on the creation andmanagement of funds — mutual funds, accessible to all types of investors. No more sales staff, no need for multiple offices; a company with a single purpose — to seize opportunities as they arose and maximize their potential.

He sold Sprott Securities to his partners and, in August, 2000, launched Sprott Asset Management.

Mr. Sprott’s approach is opportunity driven, he says. First, he looks for an overall theme, a particular area for investment that offers the potential for well-aboveaverage returns.

His first fund, started under the Sprott Securities umbrella, targeted Canadian equities. In 2001, he saw a glowing future for gold and precious metals so he created the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund.

When Canadian markets began to slide from bull to bear early in this decade, he launched hedge funds. Then, as energy prices seemed about to skyrocket, he created a fund to take advantage of high performers in that sector as well.

“It all starts with that overall theme,” he says. “If we see a sector shaping up with lots of legs under it, we will create a fund to take advantage of the opportunity. Then, we start the search for investments in companies within that general theme that offer potential for gains of at least fivefold on current trading prices.” Identifying those specific companies is Mr. Sprott’s forte. About one of each five of his employees is involved in research and analysis. Sixteen of his employees are investment professionals. It is their task to know not just the financial side of the companies they invest in but the intimate details of their operations and of the industries they operate in.

In most situations, great fund managers create their own luck.

It is not, however, a business for the faint of heart, Mr. Sprott admits. Markets go down; markets go up. Wealth creation is a function of time. Fortunes are made steadily, year after year. Bears make money; bulls make money; pigs always lose money.

“You have to be prepared to ride out the inevitable up and down cycles,” he says. “Look, a few months ago, Canadian Equities was 7% on the year; today, it is up 38.6%. Quality investments inevitably shine over time. You just have to have the patience to wait for what is largely inevitable.” Talent plays a role as well. Sprott has been known to start a fund simply because the company was able to attract a fund manager with proven expertise in a certain sector.

Talent, however, is a direct function of hard work; taking the time andmaking the effort to understand companies and sectors as well as or perhaps better than the people running them.

What does the future hold? More of the same, Mr. Sprott says.

“People ask how big we can become without losing the ability to perform as we have to date,” he says. “I tell them we started with $100-million and now, we have more than $4-billion in assets; so far, there has been not even the slightest downward effect on performance.

“The simple answer is that, when we stop performing, that is the time to stop growing.

“Besides, it won’t be our choice. If we stop performing the public, will stop investing in our funds.”

-----------------------------------
SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC.

Head office Toronto
Business sector Investment management
Market Canada
Number of Employees 42
Revenue $100-million-plus
Web site www.sprott.com

http://www.roynat.com/eng/entrepreneur.asp?sub=profile3

[Firsteven]

Big Money Likes Molybdenum in Asia Message List

Reply | Forward Message #371 of 371 < Prev | Next >

This story the last time I posted it had increased to $500 Mil now it's going to (US) $886 Mil. Some big names in Asian money circles are bought in already. 20% of US $800 Mil is no small signal to the Molybdenum market, just as Sprott's Fund being oversubscribed by $500 Mil is another. This train has legs...KR

China Molybdenum $886 mln IPO draws big investors
Mon Apr 9, 2007 3:44am ET
Market View









HONG KONG, April 9 (Reuters) - China Molybdenum Co. Ltd. is raising as much as US$886 million in a Hong Kong IPO, and eight cornerstone investors including Hong Kong tycoons Lee Shau Kee and Li Ka-shing have already bought 20 percent of the share sale, sources close to the deal said.
The firm, the country's largest producer of the minor metal used in steel production, kicked off a management road show on Monday. It is offering 1.08 billion shares, or 25 percent of its enlarged share capital, between HK$5.00 to HK$6.40 apiece, the sources said.

The issue price range values the firm at 10.8 times to 13.8 times forecast 2007 earnings, almost a 20 percent discount to rival Hunan Nonferrous Metals Co.'s (2626.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) 17 times price-to-earning ratio at the high end.




Other cornerstone investors include Bank of East Asia (0023.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) Chairman David Li, Beijing-backed conglomerate Citic Pacific (0267.HK: Quote, Profile , Research), the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. and Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile , Research).

Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) are sponsoring the deal, which will close on April 18, with a trading debut set for April 26.

Lee is chairman of Henderson Land (0012.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) while Li Ka-shing is chairman of Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. (0013.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) and Cheung Kong (Holdings) (0001.HK: Quote, Profile , Research). The two, along with other Hong Kong tycoons, often invest in IPOs by big Chinese state-run firms.


© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.

[Firsteven]

super Beitrag von cuba-libre aus dem Hauptthread:


noch einmal die aussagen von mr. mcdonald zu übernahmeplänen/-spekulationen sowie in verbindung damit zur "konkurrenz" in form von (junior)explorern:
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“There’s a tremendous barrier to entry for a new primary molybdenum mine to come onstream with no forward market,” McDonald observed. “Because without a forward sale, financing requirements for the capital to build one of these new mined could be very, very challenging.” He believes one of the other big molybdenum mines will get financed, but he cautioned, “I think that once one does, it doesn’t mean they are all going to.” He explained his own personal experience, “When we raised the US$575 million last year to buy Thompson Creek, this was a company making close to US$400 million a year after tax, and we had some heavy lifting to do. It was difficult. It would be difficult for another junior.”
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And what about those other junior molybdenum companies? “We aren’t going to grow our company by buying all these other moly deposits,” he responded. “Then, we have to go and raise $700 million, worry about marketing another 20 million pounds a year, and betting the company on it. Personally, and our board agrees, we’d rather buy something that’s either in production, and pay a little more for it, or take something at a feasibility stage, like copper/moly. We have a pretty good balance sheet, or we will have by the end of this year. Then maybe we could buy some moly production.”
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folgende aspekte werden deutlich:

> es erscheint unrealistisch, daß mehr als ein explorer den sprung zum produzenten schafft. der finanzielle aufwand, das zu stemmen, sei erheblich.
> es besteht jedoch trotzdem nicht die absicht, derartige molyvorkommen aufzukaufen. der fin. aufwand hierfür stünde wohl in keinem verhältnis dazu, diese bestände zu vermarkten.
> man muß das ganze auch in dem zusammenhang damit sehen, daß bpm selbst erst einmal die eigenen recourccen "ausschlachten" möchte und bekanntl. daran massiv arbeitet.
> als da wäre: zum einen davidson: “It will become the highest-grade molybdenum mine in the world.” He said the Davidson project would be in full production in 2009.
> zum anderen endako (‘super pit.’): Another project where McDonald hopes will provide additional molybdenum supply comes with the possible expansion of Endako into a ‘super pit.’ The company plans to have the scoping study done later this year, possibly by June. “I feel pretty good about that, it’s pretty realistic,” he told us. “We have a massive resource there, and it would be a pretty big job. But, it could take the wind out of some of these other juniors.”
> bereits jetzt produziert bpm 5 % der molyweltnachfrage und verarbeitet sogar 9 %!
> auch wenn die molynachfrage weiter steigt, kann es m. e. nicht im interesse von bpm sein, dem markt übermäßig viel an moly zur verfügung zu stellen. das würde sich vermutl. eher preismindernd auswirken.
> also ein nachvollziehbarer gedanke, sich unternehmen "einzuverleiben", das/die bereits in produktion sind und insofern auch bereits einen konkr. marktanteil haben.
> es gibt nur wenige reine molyproduzenten. bpm ist meines wissens einer von vier (in nordamerika, richtig? )
> früher gab es keine (bzw. kaum) reine molyproduzenten. meistens war moly ein bei(bzw. neben)produkt bei der kupferförderung.
> bis 09/1999 war z. b. amax cyprus der weltgrösste molyproduzent. Cyprus Amax Minerals Company, headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, is a leading producer of copper, the world\'s largest producer of molybdenum, and holds a 30% interest in Kinross Gold. Cyprus Amax is exploring for minerals worldwide. also ein unternehmen mit einer breit gefächerten palette, 1999 übrigens geschluckt von phelps dodge: Based on Phelps Dodge\'s closing share price yesterday, the agreement currently values Cyprus Amax at $19.80 per share, or a total equity value of approximately $1.8 billion, based on approximately 90.7 million Cyprus Amax shares outstanding.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=…
> noch einmal zum thema kupfer/moly: aufgrund der nähe zum kupfer (Molybdän kommt natürlich meistens als Molybdänit (Molybdänglanz, MoS2) mit einer Konzentration von etwa 0,3 % vor. Daneben gibt es noch Wulfenit (Gelbbleierz, PbMoO4) und Powellit (Ca,Mo,W)O4. Zur Verhüttung gelangt überwiegend das durch den Kupferbergbau anfallende Koppelprodukt Molybdänit. Große Vorkommen finden sich in der Mongolei. Durch die immer stärker werdende Bedeutung von Molybdän entstehen immer mehr reine Molybdänproduzenten. http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybd%C3%A4n) macht es vermutl. sinn, überlegungen auch in diese richtung (näml. kupfer) anzustellen. oder?
> es mag auch andere aspekte geben, die ein engagement in kupfer reizvoll erscheinen lassen:

> frage: spielt eigentl. kupfer bei den akt. bpm-projekten keine rolle? bzw. warum ist das so?
> könnte es sein, daß eine erweiterung auf andere segmente, ein eigenes "übernommen-werden" erschwert?
um z. b. bei phelps dodge zu bleiben: die haben sich wie gesagt erst 1999 amex cyprus "einverleibt", im letzten jahr wurde folgender deal mit inco und falconbridge gestemmt...

28.06.2006 13:07:00

Phelps Dodge, Inco und Falconbridge einigen sich auch 56 Mrd. USD Dreifachzusammenschluss und schaffen eines der weltweit grössten Bergbauunternehmen

PHOENIX und TORONTO, June 28 /PRNewswire/ --
- Mit der Transaktion entsteht der weltweit grösste Nickelproduzent und der grösste an der Börse gehandelte Kupferproduzent
- Kombination hoher Qualität mit langlebigen Assets in Regionen mit geringen geopolitischen Risiken und wertvollen Erschliessungsprojekten; verbesserte Investitionsmöglichkeiten in langfristiges Wachstum
- Bis 2008 Synergien von 900 Mio. USD jährlich; Zusammenschluss wirkt sich auf den Cashflow sofort und auf den Gewinn je Aktie ab 2008 zuschreibend aus
- Angebot von Phelps Dodge für Zusammenschluss von Inco/Falconbridge mit 80,13 CAD je Aktie veranschlagt; Vereinbarung ermächtigt Inco zur Erhöhung des Angebots für Falconbridge auf 62,11 CAD je Aktie
- Phelps Dodge kündigt auch Aktienrückkaufprogramm in Höhe von bis zu 5 Mrd. USD an
Die Phelps Dodge Corporation (NYSE: PD), Inco Limited (NYSE: N; TSX) und die Falconbridge Limited (NYSE: FAL; TSX) gaben heute bekannt, im Rahmen einer 56 Mrd. USD(1) Transaktion zu fusionieren und so ein in Nordamerika ansässiges Bergbauunternehmen zu schaffen, das zu den weltweit grössten gehören wird. Das neue Unternehmen wird unter dem Namen Phelps Dodge Inco Corporation firmieren.
Phelps Dodge Inco wird weltweit führender Nickelproduzent, weltweit grösster, börsennotierter Kupferproduzent und führender Produzent von Molybdän und Kobalt sein. Zudem wird das Unternehmen ein erstklassiges Portfolio an Wachstumsprojekten und hervorragenden Explorationsmöglichkeiten haben. Zum Quartalsende am 31. März 2006 konnten die drei Unternehmen Erträge von 6,3 Mrd. USD und einen Überschuss vor Zinsen, Steuern, Abschreibungen und Tilgung von 1,9 Mrd. USD ausweisen.
...
http://www.finanzen.net/news/news_detail.asp?NewsNr=409945

> ein schlucken eines reinen molyprodenzenten wäre vielleicht noch reizvoll und schnell vollzogen. aber: wäre ein unternehmen, was etwas diversifizierter aufgestellt ist, (mittlerweile) evtl. weniger interessant? denn: solche (großen) deals hat man - wie aufgezeigt - bereits einige male getätigt...
> andereseits könnte ich mir vorstellen, daß mr. mcdonald nicht alle eigenen pläne jetzt schon in die weltgeschichte hinausposaunt. wie wir alle wissen, schläft der mann nicht auf dem baum (ganz im gegenteil!). also wenn ich mr. mcd. wäre, würde ich selbst nicht jetzt bereits (halbwegs) konkrete ziele meiner expansionsabsichten (inkl. entspr. zeithorizonte) öffentl. machen. andersrum: könnte es evtl. ganz anders laufen als er jetzt sagt? d. h. aktive übernahme in einem ganz anderen zeithorizont und auch in eine ganz andere richtung...? ist aber nur eine spekulation....
> noch etwas: aus "wheaton-river-zeiten" soll mr. mcdonald als "liebhaber" von übernahmen gelten. wurde so ähnl. hier schon mal dargestellt. kann das vielleicht noch jemand konkretisieren?

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

ich habe heute bei Wayne Cheveldayoff nach den Erlösen für die Fremdröstung und den An- und Verkauf von Moly für die Röster in Langeloth gefragt.

Ich persönlich hätte erwartet, dass bei dem momentanen Molypreisen hier 5$ per IB erlöst werden könnten.

Leider werden hier nur ca, 1 USD pro IB erlöst. Macht bei 25 Mio. IB Fremdröstung also nur einen Betrag von 25 Mio. USD aus.

Schade, aber das hauptsächliche Ziel der Aktion sei es die Fixkosten besser aufzuteilen. Somit ergibt sich ein niedrigerer Kostenblock für die Röstung des eigenen Molybdän.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Zitat: @ schlangenmeister!

Du hattest doch recht!
Es gibt einen zweiten Röster in Endako:

"There are two roasters installed at Endako. One is decommissioned and woul require capital expense to re-commission, including a possible requirement for additional waste gas scrubbing.
The Endako Mine Consultans have not estimated the cost to bring additional roasters on line or investigated implications that this would have on the operating air permits."

Die Diskussion setzen wir morgen fort...
Gute Nacht!

Gruß
Vm
--------------------------------

Habe jetzt gerade Zeit und setze die Diskussion deshalb jetzt fort

Wer weis, wie ich morgen wieder im Stress bin???

Den 2. Röster in Endako wieder in Betrieb zu nehmen, dürfte nicht ganz so einfach sein, bzw. zumindest hohe Kosten verursachen (mein Eindruck). Wie ich dem Zitat entnehme (S.33 Annual Information Form vom 26.3.2007 - SEDAR) hat sich auch noch niemand ernsthaft Gedanken gemacht, ob die bestehenden Genehmigungen aus Umweltschutzgründen überhaupt die Wiederinbetriebnahme des 2. Rösters gestatten, oder ob hierzu eine neue Genehmigung erforderlich wäre).

So wie ich das sehe, hat der in Betrieb befindliche eine Röster eine Kapazität von 15 Mio Pfund pro Jahr. Endako fördert etwa 10 Mio Pfund, und Davidson soll ab 2009 etwa 5 Mio Pfund fördern (2008 etwa 2 Mio). Damit wäre der Röster ziemlich genau ausgelastet.

Nach meiner Auffassung ist es nicht sinnvoll, die Rösterkapazität auszubauen, damit Molykonzentrat von Fremdminen für wenig Geld dort geröstet werden kann. Besser ist es, den Flaschenhals von weltweit unzureichender Rösterkapazität bestehen zu lassen und damit einen Beitrag zu leisten, dass der Molypreis hoch bleibt.

Wenn es allerdings zu dem Ausbau von Endako zu einem Super-Pit kommt, und somit die jährlich produzierte Molymenge ansteigt, dann ist es eine Überlegung, ob das in Endako nicht mehr zusätzlich zu verarbeitende Moly in Langeloth geröstet werden kann (Transportfrage), oder ob unter dieser Voraussetzung dann doch eine Erhöhung der Rösterkapazität sich rechnen würde.

Angenommen der Ausstoß von Endako würde um 5 Mio Pfund pro Jahr erhöht, dann müsste das überschüssige Konzentrat über eine lange Entfernung nach Langeloth gebracht werden.
5 Mio Pfund hört sich zunächst einmal sehr viel an. Wenn man das allerdings in Tonnen umrechnet, dann sind das gerade mal rund 2300 Tonnen, oder 90 LKW-Ladungen.
90 LKW im Jahr die Strecke nach Langeloth fahren zu lassen, ist aber vom Kostenaufwand her sicher günstiger, als mit Millionenaufwand den zweiten Röster wieder in Betrieb zu nehmen.

Fremdminen, die bisher in Langeloth rösten lassen, müssen dann eben sehen, wo sie ihr Molykonzentrat geröstet bekommen. Wenn der Engpass erhalten bleibt, BPM aber problemlos das eigene Moly in eigener Anlage rösten kann, dann ist das nur positiv zu sehen für einen hohen Molypreis und damit hohen Kurs dem Blue-Pearl-Aktie.

chartex

[Firsteven]

Globe says Blue Pearl rides the moly-mania wave
2007-04-10 08:23 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition not long ago, you could buy molybdenum for a couple of bucks (U.S.) a pound. The Globe's Fabrice Taylor writes it now costs $30 (U.S.). Moly's volatility can be heart-stopping. Demand is going up briskly and, yes, the developing world is largely responsible. Other shiny, bullish thoughts: Moly is a way to play the growth in the energy trade. Nuclear reactors and nuclear waste storage sites can use lots of molybdenum. And there are roughly 100,000 kilometres of new pipelines contemplated around the world over the next couple of decades. It is very hard to build a mine, which is good because if all the proposed moly mines went into production, the price would collapse. A safer way to invest is in a producer. One is Blue Pearl, a former junior that last year bought a well-established primary miner. Despite a rocket-like ascent, the shares trade at roughly 10 times consensus earnings estimates. The company took on a lot of debt to finance its acquisition, but at current prices it will have paid it off in three or four years. A final word of caution: Blue Pearl stock plunged 25 per cent in the first five weeks of the year for no particular reason.

[schnucksche]

Liebe BPM´ler,

ich habe heute mit Wayne korrespondiert, weil ich mich fragte, bis wann denn evtl. die Ressourcenschätzung zu Davidson veröffentlich werden könnte, zumal diese für das 1. Quartal angedacht war.

Konkret, BPM hatte gehofft, diese bis 31.03. zu veröffentlichen, jedoch nie versprochen ... nur für die, die jetzt wieder ein Haar in der Suppe suchen.

Es ist jedoch leider so, dass sich die Veröffentlichung und die FS weiter verzögert, den Grund könnt ihr der mail entnehmen, die ich nachfolgend anhänge.

Es scheint wohl sogar so zu sein, dass wir zuerst eine News bezüglich der Ressourcenerweiterung von Endako erhalten werden, ggf. sogar noch diesen Monat. Näheres ist aus der beigefügten mail zu entnehmen.

Seid so nett und veranstaltet jetzt keine Hinterfragorgie, warum, weshalb, wieso usw. Es handelt sich hierbei um Begebenheiten, die von Blue Pearl nicht beeinflusst werden können.

An der Antwort von Wayne kann man aber auch erkennen, dass Blue sehr genau den Börsengang in China beobachtet und offenkundig auch ein gewisse Eigeninteresse hat, seine News etwas hinaus zu zögern.

Viele Grüße
schnucksche


Ursprüngliche Mitteilung-----
Von: [e-mail]
An: XXX
Verschickt: Di., 10. Apr. 2007, 20:57
Thema: RE: Davidson


Hi XXX,



The reason it was not released is that it is not ready yet. Unfortunately, we do not have a final report from the consultants yet and I don’t have a specific date or month for the release of information.



I expect we will first have a news release on the resources and reserves at Endako. I am hopeful that it will be this month, but I cannot be certain.



Is there discussion on the board about the China Molybdenum IPO? In case you haven’t seen it, I will forward to you an article on it.



Regards,

Wayne Cheveldayoff








#101378 von schnucksche 10.04.07 21:13:02 Beitrag Nr.: 28.747.031
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben BLUE PEARL MINING



Folgende Antwort bezieht sich auf Beitrag Nr.: 28746997 von schnucksche am 10.04.07 21:11:28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
... und hier der in der mail angesprochene Artikel ...

China Molybdenum targets $977 million from IPO
By Anette Jönsson, | 10 April 2007

Read this article online at:
http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIID=77756

Eight cornerstone investors commit to a piece of the deal as the price range is set at a sizeable discount to comparable Hunan Nonferrous Metals.

China Molybdenum has set the price range for its initial public offering at a level that offers a significant discount to fellow specialty metals producer Hunan Nonferrous Metals, but could still see it raise well over $900 million if the greenshoe is exercised in full.

The company, known as China Moly, operates one of the largest pure molybdenum mines in the world, which is estimated to have 498,000 tonnes of molybdenum reserves and 506,000 tonnes of tungsten reserves. Both molybdenum and tungsten are used as alloys to harden steel and are in strong demand by China’s rapidly growing stainless steel industry in particular. This is particularly true as neither metal has any viable substitutes.

The company is offering 22.7% of its issued share capital at a price between HK$5 and HK$6.40 per share, according to sources. With a base deal size of 1.08 billion new shares, this puts the total offering at HK$5.4 billion to HK$6.9 billion ($694 million to $888 million). The greenshoe, which will be no more than 10% (compared with the usual 15%), could boost the total takings to $977 million.

This will make China Moly the third largest Hong Kong IPO so far this year after China Citic Bank and real estate developer Country Garden. Guangdong-based Country Garden will close its up to $1.7 billion offering tomorrow (April 11), while China Citic Bank is kicking off a dual H- and A-share offering of as much as $5.6 billion today.

Sources say the response among institutional investors to China Moly’s offering has been positive so far and the discounted price should ensure enough orders. About one-fifth of the base deal size, or 18% to 23% depending on the final price, has also been set aside for eight cornerstone investors and the quality of those names should help instil confidence among other investors too, the sources note.

Indeed, the list of cornerstones includes several of the Hong Kong tycoons and corporate investors who tend to support high-profile H-share IPOs, such as Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau Kee, New World Development and Chow Tai Fook chairman Cheng Yu-tung, China Life Insurance and Citic Pacific. Bank of East Asia chairman David Li, who hasn’t publicly bought into a Hong Kong IPO for a while, will also take a stake, as will the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore (GIC). Another unusual investor in this context is Citigroup Global Markets.

The eight investors will buy $20 million each and have committed to a 12-month lockup. Li Ka-shing will, however, split his allocation half and half between Hutchison Whampoa and Cheung Kong (Holdings).

The company kicked off the official roadshow in Singapore yesterday when Hong Kong- and European-based investors were still on Easter Holidays and the marketing will move to Hong Kong today.

Morgan Stanley and UBS are joint bookrunners for the offering.

The price range values China Moly at 10.9 to 13.9 times its 2007 earnings, which according to syndicate research is projected to grow 44% versus last year following 31% growth last year and 319% in 2005. These P/E multiples compares with about 17.8 times for tungsten producer Hunan Nonferrous (HNF), suggesting China Moly will come at a discount of at least 22% to its listed peer. At the bottom of the range the gap is as large as 39%.

The discount may have ended up being greater than initially intended as HNF has gained 11.5% since the start of pre-marketing of China Moly on March 26 and investor feedback was said to have focused on an absolute valuation of China Moly rather than as a specific discount to its listed peers. HNF has risen more than three times from its IPO price of HK$1.65 in March last year, including a 73% jump on its first trading day. It closed at HK$5.42 just before the holidays last Wednesday.

The price range also pitches the listing candidate at premium to Toronto-listed Blue Pearl, which trades at a 2007 P/E multiple of about 8.3 times. Blue Pearl is the only pure molybdenum producer that is publicly listed but with reserves accounting for only a quarter of China Moly’s, a mine life of less than 10 years versus an estimated 46 years for its Chinese competitor and higher cash costs, analysts feel a premium is deserved.

Hong Hong-listed base materials companies, including Jiangxi Copper and Aluminum of China, tend to trade at average forward P/Es of six to 10 times. However, base metals aren’t experiencing the same supply shortage as specialty metals and the irreplaceable nature of both molybdenum and tungsten in steel production suggest companies producing these two metals should trade at a premium to the former group, one observer notes.

The money raised from the IPO will be used partly to set up its own processing facilities to recover tungsten from the raw material left over after extracting the molybdenum. These facilities, which are already under construction and scheduled to be completed by early 2008, will boost the revenues generated by its tungsten reserves to 4%-5% in a couple of years from only 1% now, making the metal an important growth driver, analysts project.

The IPO proceeds will also help fund an increase of the ore output from its only mine as well as the processing capacity of various molybdenum products further down the value chain as the company strives to transform itself into more of an integrated molybdenum producer.

Prior to the listing, the company is 52% owned by the government of Luanchuan County and 48% by two individuals through an investment company called Cathay Fortune Corp.

The final pricing it expected to be determined after the US close on April 18 with the trading debut scheduled for April 26.



Copyright FinanceAsia.com Ltd., a subsidiary of Haymarket Media Ltd

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Notes Apr.10/07

FeMo and Oxide Prices Soften

Ferromoly and moly oxide prices softened a bit in Europe, with FeMo sales reported at $70.50 per kg and briquette business done at $27.60 per lb. There was little activity in the US, although prices appear to be slightly higher there. One US mill reportedly was in the market for FeMo and was no-quoted by several producers. The result was that the mill didn't buy. Traders are reluctant to sell at below $33 per lb, especially as they can ship the FeMo to Europe and get better prices than in the US. Traders report that they are having no difficulty obtaining $33-34 per lb for small quantities of FeMo. European traders expect consumers to resume buying for the second quarter at the end of this week or early next week. US traders see no signs of prices going down in the nearterm

[schnucksche]

Molybdenum: Vital for Nuclear Reactors
April 10, 2007 01:00 PM EST



Molybdenum plays a more vital role in the global nuclear renaissance than you might suspect. Without the silvery white metal, the world’s energy infrastructure would somewhat suffer. But, nuclear power plants would be set back at least two decades. The new high performance stainless steels (HPSS) contain as much as 7.5 percent molybdenum and can add more than three times the life to the world’s aging nuclear fleet condenser tubes.

During the early construction of nuclear power plants, steam condensers relied upon copper base alloys – brass and copper nickel – for heat transfer capabilities. These alloys have high coefficients of thermal conductivity required in steam generation to power nuclear reactor turbines. But copper-alloyed tubes were being replaced too quickly – with an average life of eight years – because of sulphide pitting. Hardest hit were those reactors using polluted seawater to cool their reactors.

Over the past 30 years ago, nuclear utilities slowly began turning to the super austenitic stainless steels as one way to make their nuclear reactors last longer. The addition of molybdenum, initially starting with percentage of less than four percent, helped increase the thermal conductivity lacking in nickel, iron or steel. At nuclear stations which replaced the copper alloys with HPSS condenser tubes, 57 percent rated the thermal performance good and all but one rated it normal. Molybdenum had helped overcome the thermal hurdle.

A large number of the 190 nuclear reactors, which now utilize HPSS condenser tubes, reported an average life in excess of 18 years. The longest stainless steel condenser installation has remained in service more than 26 years, according to a study done several years ago. According to a report published in 2000, more than 100 million feet of super-alloy stainless steel tubes have replaced the older, copper-alloy tubing.

Condensers are large heat exchangers used in nuclear power plants. Condensers have thousands of tubes horizontally mounted to condense and recover the steam passing through turbines. Each low-pressure turbine generally has a condenser, which also maintains a vacuum to optimize the turbine’s efficiency.

Water fouling deposits were cited as a major problem at many reactors, especially with condenser tubes where seawater or high-chloride brackish water was the coolant. Pitting corrosion, tube sheet crevice corrosion and galvanic corrosion put the tubes at risk for leakage. Plugging, mud, or detritus accumulating in condenser tubes reduce a power plant’s efficiency.

Utilities use cleaning systems with small, abrasive sponge-like balls to keep the tubes clean and test for tube defectives with probing devices. Tube thinning and corrosion create the opportunity for tube leakage. This can not be tolerated because chemicals such as sodium and chlorides find their way into the reactor vessel or steam generator.

Upgrading the steam condenser tubing to stainless steel also plays a vital role in the ‘power uprate’ program utilities have used to increase generating capacity for existing reactors as we recently discussed. The more advanced uprate program could add up to 20-percent capacity to existing U.S. nuclear reactors.

Different Molybdenum Alloys
There are several HPSS manufacturers for nuclear reactor condensers. The most prominent in the nuclear sector include Pennsylvania-based ATI Allegheny Ludlum and Finland’s Outokumpu. Each offers austenitic steels with chromium and nickel composition of between 20 and 25 percent for each alloy and a range of 6.2 to 7.5 percent molybdenum.

In a paper presented by Jan Olsson of Avesta Sheffield (before the company was acquired by Outokumpu), he highlighted the results of tests performed on the new super-austenitic stainless steel, 654 SMO®. Metals comprising this brand include 25-percent chromium, 22-percent nickel and 7.5-percent molybdenum. To increase pitting resistance, the manufacturers added up to 0.5-percent nitrogen and three-percent manganese (for make the nitrogen more soluble).

As with all pioneering developments – and remember that R & D breakthroughs have taken place over a two-decade-plus period, manufacturers have re-designed their metallurgical composition to find the most encouraging percentages of nickel, chromium, molybdenum and nitrogen. The earlier stainless steels relied on higher nickel content and lesser percentages of chromium and molybdenum.

At first, conventional austenitic grades, such as 316L, or high chromium-ferritic grades, were utilized. Pitting struck down widespread use of the 316L series and was replaced by higher alloy steels. For example, others, such as the 254 SMO® stainless steel, began aggressively replacing the copper alloy tubes and in some cases the 316L series. The 254 is comprised of 20-percent chromium, 18-percent nickel, 6.2-percent molybdenum and 0.20-percent nitrogen. It has also offered a high level of corrosion resistance at desalination plants without becoming cost-prohibitive.

The most significant breakthrough came after various stainless steels were tested at Scandinavian coastal reactors. In the Avesta paper, the failures of each lesser austenitic grade were checked off. Significant deficiencies included insufficient stress corrosion cracking resistance and resistance to natural seawater. Even titanium tubing was used as an interim measure because it increased total heat transfer by 17 percent, but the metal failed to stand up to high velocity steam and suffered ‘water droplet erosion.’

According to the study, “The only alloy fully resistant to all test conditions was 654 SMO®.” The results at nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden, along the Baltic Sea, were astonishing! Four important conclusions about this super alloy were reached after the testing.

Its corrosion resistance could cope with the hostile environments existing inside condenser tubes of desalination plants and power plants.
Its corrosion resistance was good enough to cop with many other hostile brine and seawater environments.
Its erosion resistance was advantageous where it was exposed to high velocity streams.
There was no concern about its heat transfer characteristics.
Nuclear Consumption of Molybdenum
About 48 nuclear reactors are reportedly scheduled for construction by 2013. It may be possible that up to 100 could be constructed by 2020, depending upon political and financial climates. The largest number proceeding through the proposed, planned or construction phases will be located along coastal areas to service the most populated areas. The greatest numbers of new constructions are expected from China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Japan (and possibly the United States).

Existing reactors along coastal areas in Asian countries presently breaks down as follows: Japan (57), South Korea (26), China and Taiwan (19) and India (11). Because these are the most prone to seawater or brackish corrosion, they are also the likely candidates for upgrading existing condenser tubing to high alloy stainless steel. And their new reactors are likely going to be constructed along their coasts, requiring the super austenitic grades. As an aside, of the previously mentioned 190 nuclear power plants which had replaced their condensers with HPSS, 45 percent used fresh water as coolant. Those plants chose the high alloy steel as a ‘fail-safe’ measure to prevent interrupted service or a potential reactor incident.

The United Nations estimates that two-thirds of the planet’s population will be living with water stress by 2025. Global freshwater scarcity may demand the use of brackish or seawater as nuclear reactor coolant. To prevent the accompanying corrosion, the higher-percentage molybdenum alloy, specifically the 654 SMO®, could emerge as the condenser tubing material of choice. Either the 254 SMO® or the 654 would be utilized in desalination plants required to overcome water shortages in the hardest hit areas: North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia.

Typically, nuclear power plant condenser tubing requires approximately 520,000 feet of stainless steel. According to the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA), larger reactors could utilize up to one million feet of stainless steel. With the higher molybdenum grades found in the super alloys, new nuclear reactors could require tens of thousands of metric tons of molybdenum.

By comparison, nuclear waste containers proposed for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository were forecast to consume about 15,000 metric tons of moly. While this project may or may not proceed as planned to the construction phase, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) has proposed regionalized storage of spent fuel.

Should comparably designed storage canisters be utilized to ‘temporarily’ contain the nuclear waste, it is likely molybdenum will play a key role. According to the U.S. Government’s Energy Citation Database, as published by the Department of Energy’s Office of Scientific and Technical Information, “Alloys with combined chromium plus molybdenum contents greater than 30 percent were the most resistant to general and local attack.” This was the conclusion reached after corrosion scouring tests were performed on stainless steel and nickel-based alloys to immobilize high-level, radioactive waste.

Another aspect where high-percentage molybdenum stainless steel would double up is with the expansion of nuclear desalination plants. In the past, and in our publication, “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market,” we have discussed the rise of nuclear desalination across those coastal areas, requiring far more freshwater than can possibly be transported through other means. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has reported of numerous such desalination projects in progress.

Will The Energy Bull Have Sufficient Moly?
From nearly every energy project – oil, gas, coal and nuclear, and for water, molybdenum demand will continue increasing. Super austenitic grades demand a higher moly content to combat corrosion and provide reliability of service. Of course, there will be substitution in the face of future supply shortfalls. In some instances, there are reports the Russians have substituted vanadium for molybdenum in some of their oil and gas pipelines to conserve on moly consumption. ATI Allegheny Ludlum has argued for the substitution of two-percent manganese for every percent of nickel, but in the lower grade austenitic groups which do not demand the corrosion resistance of energy projects.

While reviewing the anticipated new projects from the molybdenum mining sector, we foresee the high probability of supply inadequacy. Aside from China Moly’s Sandaozhuang molybdenum mine, which the company hopes could produce 28,000 tonnes of molybdenum concentrate this year and perhaps grow by another 17 percent the following year, there is a paucity of new molybdenum projects coming fully online before 2009.

Based upon China’s voracious appetite for molybdenum – one research firm estimated compounded annual growth rate over the previous five years at 17 percent, whatever excess moly production comes from China Moly’s mining efforts could very well be domestically consumed.

Future North American molybdenum producers may need to ramp up their projects to meet the growing demand. During 2006, demand grew above the historical norm of four percent; most of the consumption came from China. This is unlikely to stagnate or decrease, and could interfere with North American and European consumption of molybdenum.

Only one company is scheduled to commence molybdenum mining in 2007, Roca Mines. Because the company is limited to a small-mining permit, anticipated production could not exceed three million pounds. By late 2008, or early 2009, Adanac Molybdenum hopes to commence its start-up efforts to reach eight-figure moly production. Later, Blue Pearl Mining hopes to commence high-grade molybdenum mining at the Davidson deposit in British Columbia. Around this time, the Climax molybdenum mine could re-open and begin production in Colorado. Moly Mines hopes to begin production at the company’s Spinifex project. Possibly, before the decade ends, Idaho General might commence operations in Nevada. Perhaps before those 48 nuclear reactors come online, US Energy’s Mt. Emmons deposit may be mined in Colorado.

Many of these projects are subject to environmental permitting and/or financing, putting any material amount of forecasted supply in jeopardy. And this comes at a time when some experts believe byproduct molybdenum production at copper mines could be constrained. There are many conditional requirements which do not necessarily guarantee a reliable supply from the new breed of primary moly producers. We have witnessed comparable obstacles in the uranium sector, which has since been accompanied by a hyperbolic price rally in this metal.

There could come a point in the molybdenum sector where the silvery white metal could mimic such a breakout scenario. Nearly three years ago, StockInterview.com featured a forecast of US$100/pound uranium. No one believed that prediction at the time. On Friday, TradeTech announced a spot price of US$113/pound.

COPYRIGHT© 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. His focus on the uranium mining and nuclear fuel sector resulted in the widely popular “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market,” which is now available on http://www.stockinterview.com and on http://www.amazon.com

[Firsteven]

Sprott Molybdenum Fund Set for IPO on April 16

By Todd Flagg
09 Apr 2007 at 06:29 PM GMT-04:00


St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Sprott Molybdenum Participation Group announced the share prices for its highly anticipated initial public offering worth C$180 million (US$156 million). Shares will sell for C$5 per share.

According to Iryna Gordiyenko, manager of financial reporting for Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation, the fund will invest in both miners and molybdenum, which is valued for its strengthening and anti-corrosive properties. She said the company had acquired 3.9 million common shares of the molybdenum fund, representing a 9.94 percent stake.




According to Canadian regulatory filings, among the companies listed in the fund are Blue Pearl [TSX: BLE], Mercator Minerals Ltd. [TSX: ML], and Roca Mines [TSX: ROC.V]. Each unit consists of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant, Gordiyenko said. Warrant holders can buy one common share for C$7.50 in a two-year period from the close of the offering, expected on April 16.

A syndicate of agents will get an overallotment option to buy up to five percent of the total units sold on closing.

Anticipation for the announcement was high because - as was seen with the launch of last year’s silver ETF (and given the relatively minuscule and illiquid nature of the molybdenum market and equities) - the expected spike in demand is already moving both the metals and the equities to new highs.

Indications the company was interested in the molybdenum market showed up when research analyst Maria Smirnova gave in an interview to stockinterview.com in 2006.

“I think the key to the molybdenum story is its wide-reaching applicability, especially in the energy sec­tor,” Smirnova said in the article. “This specialty metal is used in oil and natural gas pipelines, hydrocarbon desulphurization, oil drill rigs, pol­lution control equipment and nuclear energy applications.

“Moly produc­ers we speak with indicate that they have no problems securing buyers for the metal,” Smirnova said. “There is obviously demand, and it will provide a floor to the price. Moly is also more insulated from certain economic downturns (than copper). If the U.S. housing market has a meltdown – signs of which we already see, moly will find support in the energy and mining sectors, unless spending is reduced in those areas.

“I don’t think moly prices would necessarily tumble if copper prices were to go south,” Smirnova told us. While some 60% of the molyb­denum mined is a byproduct of some of the world’s large copper mines, Smirnova pointed out, “The markets are quite different and the two metals have different end uses. On the supply side, there are fewer producers of moly than there are of copper.”

Since 2002, prices of molybdenum have peaked and dropped several times, reaching a high of about $45 per pound in June 2005. Molybdenum is trading at about $30 per pound.



Source: InfoMine.com

One major fact that has caused prices of molybdenum to rise recently is Chinese supply, after the country’s government announced earlier this month that it plans to introduce a quota system for molybdenum exports in the near future. The quota system will only grant export permission to those firms with export volumes of over 3,000 tonnes and with registered capital of at least RMB 100 million (approximately US$13 million).

Sprott is banking on a significant increase in demand is due to economic growth in China, as well as increased demand for stainless steel, chemicals, catalysts and super-alloys in the United States, South America, Europe and China. According to the Canadian regulatory filings, the average annual growth rate for molybdenum will be about 4.2% per year until 2010.



Source: Roskill Report

Blue Pearl

Blue Pearl [TSX:BLE], previously covered by Resource Investor was created in early 2005, but didn’t really hit the scene in last fall, when it the junior bought out privately-held Thompson Creek Metals, the largest primary molybdenum producer (most other moly producers, such as Rio Tinto and BHP, produce the metal as a by-product) in North America. As such, Blue Pearl has become the defacto pure-play for investors seeking operational moly exposure.

While Blue Pearl recently reported a net loss of US$21 million for 2006, this was largely due to inventory purchase costs associated with the Thompson Creek acquisition. UBS analysts recently estimated 2007 earnings of US$1.06/share (when Blue Pearl expects it will produce 27 million pounds of moly), giving the company a forward P/E of just over 9 times.

The Thompson Creek project in Challis, Idaho is an open-pit mine with a 10-year mine life based on proven and probable reserves. The mine during which time it is expected to produce 148 million pounds of molybdenum at an estimated average cash operating cost of US$3.68 per pound.

Measured and indicated resources of molybdemun at the Thompson project is 370.6 million pounds. Proven and probable reserves at the site are 169.1 million pounds of molybdenum.

According to the Canadian Press, share price has hit a 52-week high at $13.75. Since the announcement share price has increased by 39 cents per share or about three percent.

Roca Mines

Since the release of the fund price, shares of Roca Mines [TSX: ROC.V] has increased about nine percent. Share price for Roca Mines has increased sine April 2006, when it was 60 cents per share.

The backbone of the company’s molybdemun operations is its MAX Molybdenum Mine near Revelstoke, B.C.

The initial phase of mining is expected to produce approximately 1.5 million lbs of contained molybdenum from each production run of 72,000 tonnes. In 2007, Roca intends to complete back-to-back production runs resulting in the production of approximately 3.0 million lbs of contained molybdenum. Total annual operating costs (mine, mill and overhead) are estimated at US$7.2 million (approximately $100/tonne) with capital costs of approximately US$14 million. Payback of start-up capital is approximately 9 months from construction startup or 4 months from mill startup. Using a campaigned mining-milling approach, Roca plans to recover much of the 260,000 tonnes of 1.95% MoS2 within the first few years of production, and to make expansion decisions based on prevailing molybdenum prices during 2007 and beyond.

The global measured and indicated resource, 42,940,000 tonnes grading 0.20% MoS2 at a 0.10% MoS2 cutoff contains in excess of $3 billion contained metal value (at $30/lb molybdenum, not including any inferred resources) and remains open at depth. Future exploration will focus on expanding this resource both at depth and in areas surrounding the main deposit. An advisory board of porphyry molybdenum experts has been formed to guide the Company with further exploration plans at MAX.

Mercator Minerals Ltd.

Mercator Minerals Ltd. [TSX: ML] is a diversified natural resource company engaged in the exploration, development and mining of base and precious metals deposits. Mercator is currently producing by SX/EX leach extraction approximately 1 million pounds of copper a month at its wholly-owned Mineral Park Mine located near Kingman, Ariz.

The company has recently commenced a two-phase expansion of its Mineral Park operations to a 50,000 tonne per day copper and molybdenum milling operation which is expected to increase total Mineral Park average annual production over the first ten years of a 25-year mine life to 56 million pounds of copper, 10 million pounds of molybdenum and .6 million pounds of silver.

Shares of Mercator have remained relatively unchanged since the announcement of the share price of the fund, dropping less than one percent to C$4.76 per share.

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 48 Min. spricht Tardif über Moly und Blue Pearl

Tuesday, April 10, 2007 12:30 PM ET


Market Call with Jim O'Connell
Alternative Investment Strategies
Jean-Francois Tardif, senior portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management


Recommendation: B U Y - Blue Pearl is very cheap!!!

[Firsteven]

This story the last time I posted it had increased to $500 Mil now it's going to (US) $886 Mil. Some big names in Asian money circles are bought in already. 20% of US $800 Mil is no small signal to the Molybdenum market, just as Sprott's Fund being oversubscribed by $500 Mil is another. This train has legs...KR

China Molybdenum $886 mln IPO draws big investors
Mon Apr 9, 2007 3:44am ET
Market View









HONG KONG, April 9 (Reuters) - China Molybdenum Co. Ltd. is raising as much as US$886 million in a Hong Kong IPO, and eight cornerstone investors including Hong Kong tycoons Lee Shau Kee and Li Ka-shing have already bought 20 percent of the share sale, sources close to the deal said.
The firm, the country's largest producer of the minor metal used in steel production, kicked off a management road show on Monday. It is offering 1.08 billion shares, or 25 percent of its enlarged share capital, between HK$5.00 to HK$6.40 apiece, the sources said.

The issue price range values the firm at 10.8 times to 13.8 times forecast 2007 earnings, almost a 20 percent discount to rival Hunan Nonferrous Metals Co.'s (2626.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) 17 times price-to-earning ratio at the high end.




Other cornerstone investors include Bank of East Asia (0023.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) Chairman David Li, Beijing-backed conglomerate Citic Pacific (0267.HK: Quote, Profile , Research), the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. and Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile , Research).

Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile , Research) and UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) are sponsoring the deal, which will close on April 18, with a trading debut set for April 26.

Lee is chairman of Henderson Land (0012.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) while Li Ka-shing is chairman of Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. (0013.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) and Cheung Kong (Holdings) (0001.HK: Quote, Profile , Research). The two, along with other Hong Kong tycoons, often invest in IPOs by big Chinese state-run firms.


© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved.

[Firsteven]

BLEFF:US
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
Blue Pearl Mining Rated New `Buy' at Paradigm Capital :BLE CN

By Kimberly Badessa

Princeton, New Jersey, April 11 (Bloomberg Data) -- Blue Pearl Mining (BLE CN) was rated new ``buy'' in new coverage by analyst David Davidson at Paradigm Capital Inc. The 12-month price target is C$19.00 per share.

Last Updated: April 11, 2007 09:23 EDT

Quelle: Bloomberg

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining / Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund
Apr. 11/07


The Fund has announced that the offering is expected to close April 16th.

It was reported that the anticipated and actual shortages will move the Fund units, moly producer stocks and the commodity metal price itself. (The Fund follows the pattern of the same type of fund used to purchase uranium in a period of shortage. That Uranium Participation Fund has been very successful and thus the arrival of the moly fund has generated a lot of publicity for the fund itself but also for Blue Pearl Mining as the premier stock in the field.)

Three Companies are to be included as the Fund begins:

1) Blue Pearl Mining (BLE on Toronto)
As readers of the AMP may know Blue Pearl was a private company that purchased the assets of the Thompson Creek and in a heavily debt based transaction transformed itself into a moly only miner. It has quickly acquired the status of the "go to" stock in the field. UBS has an estimate of $1.06 earnings per share in 2008 giving a P/E ratio of 9 for next year. There is no spot market price for moly. It is a negotiated amount between miners and users. The present tight supplies will likely be accentuated by the Fund becoming a purchaser of the metal - in addition to holding shares in miners. The effect of the Fund purchases may be seen in the next few months. Generally, analysts have been using $30 a pound in calculating earnings and financial ratios.
Blue Pearl has
1) Undertaken a prepayment of $62 million of debt.
2) Sold 3 million shares to the Fund for $36 million, which will be used for debt repayment.
3) Planned for an production expansion of one-third - to 27 million pounds in 2008.

Blue Pearl has enjoyed a steadily rising market price - resulting in new 52 week highs ($13.75 on April 9th). The promotion of the fund and publicity surrounding its launch should help attract new money, not only to the fund itself but to the main companies in the fund.
Already Blue Pearl is seeing increased trading volume in tandem with a rising valuation.

Today ( Tuesday April 10) ,a manager for Sprott was on the television rounds and repeated that his firm had started the Fund because it believes the commodity price is going higher.
He also said that Sprott has been making nine presentations, (to raise funds) a day for the last week or more.

Other companies announced for inclusion;

Roca Mines (ROV on the Venture Exchange)
Mercator Minerals Ltd. (ML on Toronto)
We will comment on these companies in future issues of this blog.

What Made Mega Jump???
Mega Uranium (MGA on Toronto)

Cannacord Adams gave, as the reason for the big move up Monday:
1) Active exploration program.
2) A diverse portfolio of prospects in Canada, Australia and four other countries.
3) Joint ventures with Cash Minerals (CHX) and Titanium Uranium (TUE).
4) Purchases from Santoy resources (SAN).
5) Acquisition of Monster Copper (MNS).
6) ANTICIPATION of another deal or exploration results.
AND
7) This company and Pinetree Capital (PNP) are favourites of Jim Dines. These two are featured in his newsletter and interviews. I don't know how you calculate what that promotion is worth but followers of his blessing on these two have made money and continue to make money. Pinetree added a half dollar today, Mega was off a dime after a great run yesterday.

Paladin Progress Report
Paladin Resources (PDN on Toronto)

The Company is making good progress but is not yet getting recognition. It announced receipt of a license for Malawi which allows for construction of the Kyelekera project. This project is to be in production next year and to ramp up to 3.3 million pounds by the following year.
The Company is also boosting production in Namibia
Production is stated to be about 25% under contract with the bulk being entered into at today’s higher rates.

Having said this, Paladin, SXR and Laramide were off today. Patience. Patience .

[schnucksche]

Lehman Brothers hat die Prognose für den Molybdänpreis von
durchschnittlich
12 USD in 2007 auf 25 USD angehoben. Zudem wurde die Preisprognose für
2008
von 8 USD ebenfalls auf 25 USD angehoben.

Langsam rechnen auch die Analysten, welche Blue Pearl covern, mit
anderen
Preisen. Paradigm hat gestern das Blue Pearl – Kursziel in der
Erstbewertung
auf 19 CAD festgesetzt. Die Analysten rechnen mit 1,66 CAD und 2,05 CAD
Gewinn je Aktie in 2007 und 2008. Daraus leiten sich KGV’s von 7 (2007)
und
5,7 für 2008 ab.

[eifelcash]

http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/wraplink.asp?url=www.blu…

Schaut euch das mal an....

Gruß,
eifel

[Firsteven]

Quelle: http://www.amprogram.com/


Blue Pearl Tries to Fight the Fed
despite analyst release and $19 Target - the market doomsayers took control
Apr. 12/07


Blue Pearl issued a news release - normally a good move to boost visibility and often the stock price but the news release the market was watching was the FMOC notes (from no friend of the market today, Ben Bernanke, head of the United States Federal Reserve). The Fed dispelled any hope for a quick line of cheaper money - that is no lowering of the interest anytime soon - to help the subprime borrowers and housing industry and the stock market).
When that Fed news hit the market retreated - all stocks - the good (like Blue Pearl), the bad (like home builders) and the ugly (OTC) - were indiscriminately sold by retail investors.

Did Blue Pearl's moly disappear or its prospects change - not at all - but one company can't fight the market malaise. What we have to do as investors is check with our reasons for buying. (for me this is the article "A Blue Pearl of Great Value" posted April 4). All conditions remain in place and so, summoning up my courage, I purchased additional shares.

I also consider that with the Sprott Moly Fund about to launch - no doubt to fanfare - more good publicity is in store, and new investors will come in. The recent activity in BLE is at values over $13.00 and these investors are (mostly) going to be holding for much more than a dollar of profit.

There are risks that weigh on every company and these have to be accessed against any positive or even Polyanna views we may have for the potential rewards. To me the fact that the Company is now less in debt and continuing to produce cash of a million dollars a day gives me the acceptable risk/reward ratio that BLE will outperform the market.

Finally, I consider the alternative positions I might acquire with money from the sale of any Blue Pearl - and again I conclude this is the place to be and that I have to consider that there may be few opportunities to add to my position at any more favourable prices. Admittedly, 25 cents is not much of a dip but I appreciate that to maintain my investing discipline I have to follow my investing criteria. To succeed with the overall goal of consistently outperforming the market average you have to be strong enough to go against the crowd mentality. This may seem just the use of common sense - a good stock is a little cheaper, so buy - but common sense is highly prized because it is uncommon.

[Firsteven]

China Moly to seek $6.9b

PrudenceHo

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the mainland\'s largest molybdenum miner, plans to raise up to HK$6.9 billion in an initial public offering 47 percent bigger than the HK$4.68 billion rumored earlier.
Luoyang-based China Moly will sell 1.08 billion new shares, or 25 percent of its enlarged share capital, at HK$5 to HK$6.40 apiece, Bloomberg reported, citing the sale document received by fund managers.

The company launched its international roadshow Monday, and began taking institutional orders. Its retail tranche will follow later, with the share trading debut scheduled for April 26.

Based on 2007 earnings of HK$2.168 billion estimated by Morgan Stanley, one of the deal sponsors, the indicative price range values the company at between 11 and 14 times earnings. Its valuation is lower than rival Hunan Nonferrous Metals Corp\'s (2626) 17 times.

Despite competing for capital with several other IPOs, China Moly is expected to receive positive investor response, thanks to cornerstone support from a number of tycoons.

Market sources said eight strategic investors have committed to acquiring 20 percent of the offering.

They include Henderson Land Development (0012) chairman Lee Shau- kee, Cheung Kong (Holdings) (001) chairman Li Ka-shing, Bank of East Asia (0023) chairman David Li Kwok- po, New World Development (0018) chairman Cheng Yu-tung, conglomerate CITIC Pacific (0267), Government of Singapore Investment Corp, US- based Citigroup, and Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

China Moly\'s open-pit Sandaozhuang mine is one of the world\'s largest molybdenum mines, with an estimated life of 46 years. According to a report by UBS - another deal sponsor - China Moly plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$737.9 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.

Molybdenum, a transition metal, is used in high-strength alloys and high- temperature steels. It is also used in oil pipelines, aircraft and missile parts.

[Firsteven]

China Molybdenum Raises Price Range in Share Sale (Update1)

By Bei Hu and Darren Boey

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- China Molybdenum Co., the nation\'s second-biggest producer of the material used to toughen steel, increased the price range in its Hong Kong initial public offering, according to a sale document.

The company is offering 1.08 billion shares at HK$5 to HK$6.8, raising the upper end of the range from HK$6.4, the e- mail showed. At the top end, the sale would raise about HK$7.3 billion ($934 million).

The share sale will help boost production of the metal as demand from Chinese stainless steelmakers drives record prices. Molybdenum oxide prices have climbed 14 percent this year to $29 a pound, according to research company Metal Bulletin. World stainless steel production jumped 17 percent last year, the International Stainless Steel Forum said on its Web site.

``Molybdenum prices will remain strong on demand from the steel industry as well as environmental regulations, which will limit supply,\'\' said Duan Yuxian, China Molybdenum chairman, told reporters today by videoconference. ``Last year China consumed 20 percent more molybdenum from 2005.\'\'

The company is selling a 22.7 percent stake. China Life Insurance Co., CITIC Pacific Ltd., Government of Singapore Investment Corp. and other investors have agreed to buy shares.

Morgan Stanley, UBS

Morgan Stanley and UBS AG are arranging the share sale.

China Molybdenum, which includes Baosteel Group Corp. and Posco as major customers, plans to use the proceeds for acquisitions in the gold and other mining projects as well as for its expansion plans, Duan said.

The IPO comes at a time when investors are showing increased interest in molybdenum. Sprott Asset Management Inc., a money manager founded by Eric Sprott, said April 5 it will raise C$200 million ($174 million) by selling units in Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp., twice as much as expected.

China\'s production capacity of stainless steel will expand 56 percent to 8.64 million metric tons this year over last, spurring demand for molybdenum, used to harden steel, Roskill Information Services, a London-based provider of data on the global metals and minerals markets, estimated.

Worldwide steel production gains will support molybdenum prices over the next few years, said Daniel Brebner, global commodity analyst at UBS AG in a Jan. 31 report.

China has the world\'s largest molybdenum reserves. It was the third-largest producer globally with a 20 percent market share in 2005, behind the U.S. and Chile, Roskill said on its Web site.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bei Hu in Hong Kong at [e-mail]

Last Updated: April 12, 2007 06:30 EDT

[Firsteven]

@ chinaaktionär
@ defiantcookie

2 sehr gute Postings, denen ich mich weitgehend anschließen kann.

Zum Thema künftige Knappheit der Metalle ab 2009 bin ich der Auffassung, dass die Knappheits-Situation auf gar keinen Fall beseitigt sein wird.

Es gibt zwar derzeit eine Unmenge von Explorern, welche auf den ersten Blick vielversprechende Projekte haben. Ich sehe aber bei beiden Metallen allerfrühestens 2010 die grundsätzliche Möglichkeit, dass eine gewisse, bedeutsame Anzahl von Minen in Produktion geht.

Fast alle dieser Explorer sind noch in einem frühen Stadium der Exploration. Aus ablauftechnischen Gründen vergehen viele Jahre, bis diese Minen überhaupt nur die Chance haben, zu einer Produktion zu kommen.

Gutes Beispiel für die erforderliche Zeit ist z.B. Adanac. Die Bankable Feasibility-Studie liegt vor seit April 2006. Der tatsächliche Beginn der Mineneinrichtung soll in diesem Sommer beginnen, die Produktion dann Anfang 2009.
Das sind also 3 praktisch komplette Jahre von der Feasibility bis zum Produktionsbeginn. Und davor dürften es wohl noch einmal 3 oder mehr Jahre gewesen sein, vom ersten Bohrloch bis zu dieser Studie.
Idaho General Mines hat einen ähnlichen Zeitplan, nur um 1 Jahr nach hinten verschoben. Molymines könnte dazwischen liegen.
(Mit diesen Unternehmen kenne ich mich leider nicht so genau aus, wie mit BPM. Falls jemand bessere Termine oder Informationen hat, so bitte ich ggf. um Korrektur).

Und wieweit sind all diese zahlreichen Explorer, die derzeit die Börsenforen und Newsletter überschwemmen und als heiße Anwärter in den Himmel gelobt werden?
Sehr viele haben noch nicht einmal eine Resourcenstudie nach NI43-101 die über Inferred hinausgeht. Da wird es mit einer Produktion wohl nichts werden vor 2012.

Was man auch nicht vergessen sollte: Für die Einrichtung einer größeren Molymine sind 500-700 Mio Dollar an Kapital nötig. Dies dürfte für die Newcomer die allergrößte Hürde sein. Solche Mengen an Kapital kann man nicht mal schnell bei der Oma leihen. Von der Aufnahme des Kapitals bis zur ersten Rate der Tilgung vergehen schon mal 2 Jahre. Inzwischen sind schon wieder zig Millionen an Zinsen angefallen. Von den kläglichen Sicherheiten, die so ein Explorer der Bank zu bieten hat, erst einmal gar nicht zu reden.

Insoweit gehe ich nicht davon aus, dass eine signifikante Zahl von Explorern es bis zum Stadium der Produktion schaffen wird. Glücklich sind vielleicht noch die, die tatsächlich von einem Kapitalkräftigen Großen übernommen werden.
Und wegen dieser Finanzierungsprobleme rechne ich auch nicht damit, dass die derzeitige Knappheit an Moly auf absehbare Zeit in eine Überproduktion umschlagen wird. Die Nachfrageseite ist ja auch kräftig am wachsen, und wird die 2009 und 2010 in Produktion kommenden Mengen gierig aufsaugen.
Bei Uran gehe ich davon aus, dass die Nachfrage das Angebot so sehr übersteigt, dass ein deutlicher Preisrückgang vor 2012-2015 nicht zu erwarten ist. Zwischenzeitliche Preisspitzen könnte ich mir gut vorstellen.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Montag geht es los!!!!


Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation To Trade On Toronto Stock Exchange
April 12, 2007

ORIGINAL LISTING

Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation (the “Company”) – An application has been granted for the original listing in the Industrial category of 61,475,520 common shares of which 41,776,000 common shares will be issued and outstanding and 19,699,520 common shares will be reserved for issuance upon completion of an initial public offering (the “Offering”).

An application has also been granted for the listing of 18,900,000 common share purchase warrants (the “Warrants”), all of which will be issued and outstanding upon completion of the Offering.

Listing of the common shares and Warrants will become effective at 5:01 p.m. on Friday, April 13, 2007 in anticipation of the Offering closing on Monday, April 16, 2007. The common shares and Warrants will be posted for trading at the opening on Monday, April 16, 2007.

Registration of interests in and transfers of the common shares and Warrants will be made only through the book-entry system of CDS Clearing and Depository Services Inc. (“CDS”). The common shares and Warrants must be purchased, transferred and surrendered for retraction through a participant in the CDS book-entry system. Purchasers of common shares and Warrants will not have the right to receive physical certificates evidencing their ownership of such securities.

Additional information is contained in the Company’s prospectus dated April 4, 2007, (the “Prospectus”) which is available at www.SEDAR.com

Common Shares
Symbol: MLY
CUSIP: 852067 10 7
Trading Currency: CDN

Warrants
Symbol: MLY.WT
CUSIP: 852067 11 5
Trading Currency: CDN

Temporary Market Maker: GMP Securities L.P.

Other Markets: None

Head Office:
Suite 2700
South Tower, Royal Bank Plaza
200 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario M5J 2J1

Head Office Telephone Number: [phone]

Fax Number: [phone]

Toll Free: 1-888-362-7172

E-mail: [e-mail]

Website: www.sprottmoly.com

Investor Relations:
Iryna Gordiyenko
Chief Financial Officer
Tel: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

Incorporation: The Company was incorporated under the Business Corporations Act (Ontario) by Articles of Incorporation dated December 6, 2006. Pursuant to Articles of Amendment dated February 20, 2007, the Company changed its name from ‘‘2121196 Ontario Ltd.’’ to ‘‘Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation’’ and removed the private company restrictions applicable to the Company.

Fiscal Year End: December 31

Nature of Business: The primary investment objective of the Company is to achieve capital appreciation by investing in securities of private and public companies that explore for, mine and/or process molybdenum (the “Portfolio Investments”) and by investing in, holding, selling and otherwise transacting in all commercial forms of molybdenum (“Physical Molybdenum”, and together with the “Portfolio Investments”, the “Molybdenum Assets”). The Company will use substantially all of the net proceeds of the Offering to acquire the Molybdenum Assets.

Manager: Sprott Asset Management Inc.

Chief Financial Officer & Corporate Secretary: Iryna Gordiyenko
Transfer Agent & Equity Transfer & Trust Company at its principal office in Registrar: Toronto.

Dividends: The Company has not paid any dividends on its outstanding common shares. The Board of Directors from time to time, and on the basis of any earnings, the Company’s financial requirements and any other relevant factor, may consider paying dividends in the future if operational circumstances of the Company permit, including earnings, cash flow, financial and legal requirements and business considerations.

Initial Public Offering: Pursuant to the Prospectus, GMP Securities L.P., Canaccord Capital Corporation, Cormark Securities Inc., Fort House Inc., TD Securities Inc. and Dundee Securities Corporation, as the Agents are offering 36,000,000 units at a price of $5.00 per unit. Each unit consists of one common share in the capital of the Company and one-half of one Warrant. Each whole Warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one additional common share of the Company at an exercise price of $7.50 per share at any time on or prior to the close of business on the date that is 24 months from the closing of the Offering, after which time the Warrants will be null and void.


Page Last Updated: April 12, 2007

[Firsteven]

UND HIER HABEN WIR NUN DIE NEUE SUPERSEITE IM MOLY-BUSINESS:



http://www.sprottmoly.com/

[sneake]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.787.656 von Firsteven am 13.04.07 06:34:45

ein neuer producer?hier schon gelistet in deutschland?

[sneake]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.787.656 von Firsteven am 13.04.07 06:34:45

ok sorry ne invesmtent holding.grad gelesen.

[sloopjohn]

Auszug aus:

Structural Changes in Molybdenum Demand
by
Denis Battrum
marketfriendly, inc.
March 27, 2007

Stainless and duplex steels

Stainless steel first; this is roughly a 28 million tonne market. We are seeing advancement of so-called duplex stainless steels with more molybdenum and less nickel. Right now, the most common duplex stainless grade produced is 2205, nominally containing 40 percent more molybdenum than the corresponding austenitic stainless – grade 316.

Commercial production of these duplex steels is still evolving: Baosteel, for example, China’s largest producer, first produced hot rolled 2205 duplex stainless steel strip only this January.
Although the use of higher-molybdenum duplex grades in a given application is not driven solely by the intrinsic value of contained nickel and molybdenum, the recent increases in nickel prices have helped tilt things this way. (Use of the duplex steels involves weight and strength considerations and knowledge of the chemical conditions surrounding the application, etc.

The potential substitution of a duplex stainless like 2304 for austenitic stainless 304 is an interesting one because of the relatively larger market for 304. Molybdenum-bearing stainless steels now represent only 7-10% of the total stainless steel market. Some project examples from Europe follow. The U.S. hasn’t yet embraced the substitution to the extent Europe has.
Remember, this is essentially a 0.3 percent Mo product (a “lean” duplex stainless steel) being used in applications that have never used molybdenum-bearing stainless before:

• A stainless steel silo for wheat flour to be fabricated by Desarrollo Agroindustrial del Silo SL in Barcelona, Spain: 500 tonnes of lean duplex sheet to be supplied during 2007 for this project. There was an overall weight savings of 200 tons realized due to the superior strength to weight ratio of the new steel.

• Also replacing 304 stainless with lean duplex stainless steel, the tank maker Emypro, S.A. will furnish 22 tanks for bulk-liquid storage at the Port of Barcelona in 2007. The weight saving is 350 tonnes on a 2,430 tonne project.

• A 66 unit tank farm at the Port of Amsterdam for 2007: The Port has allocated nine hectares in its Westpoort zone to three Dutch companies for the production of biodiesel, bioethanol and biogas from recycled organic waste. The operation will produce 25 million cubic meters of biogas, partially to help fuel on-site processes. 66 tanks with a total capacity of 84,000 cubic meters will use 2,000 tonnes of lean duplex stainless steel in place of 304 stainless.

Space doesn’t allow a full examination of the applications for all the duplex stainless steels, but the super duplex stainless steels, those significantly richer in molybdenum, are increasingly specified under corrosive conditions: Desalination, a relatively new demand driver for molybdenum, is just one example:

Main desalination techniques are the multi-stage flash (MSF) process (most common for desalination in large plants, 4,000 cubic meters/day and up, found mostly in the Persian Gulf); the multi-effect distillation (MED) process, and reverse osmosis (RO), the fastest-growing.

• Grade 2205 duplex steel was first selected for evaporators to be installed in the Melittah MSF plant in Libya in 2004. Currently three MSF-type desalination plants are under construction using this combination: Taweelah B, Jebel Ali L2, and Ras Abu Fontas B2 – all to be completed in 2007-08.

• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will begin production in June of a heavy crude oil-fired thermal power generation and desalination plant in Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia. The reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant will have capacity to produce 216,000 cubic meters of desalinated drinking water per day. Grade 2507 duplex stainless steel is specified for high-pressure piping and the energy recovery units.

• SIDEM of France is using a duplex 2304/2205 combination in the world’s largest MED-type desalination plant to date, Al Hidd in Bahrain, to be completed this year. Outokumpu, a major duplex stainless producer, pioneered this DualDuplex™ concept for desalination using two different types of duplex stainless steel in the structures of evaporators – the 2205 grade for parts exposed to the more corrosive conditions, and a lean duplex like 2304 for parts elsewhere.

The South Australia government is working with BHP Billiton on building the state's first desalination plant, on Spencer Gulf. It will be used to supply water to the Olympic Dam uranium mine as well as to supplement water supplies to upper Spencer Gulf towns and the Eyre Peninsula. Desalination is required for an increasing number of mining operations worldwide.
Australia just announced 17 coastal locations for potential power generation, which would seem likely candidates for desalination. Spain reportedly plans to build 30 new desalination plants in the next few years and Spanish stainless steel producer, Tubinox, reported this year that it will double capacity by 2010, to “take advantage of the growing desalination industry”.
The reduced availability of process water around the world and a requirement for desalination at an increasing number of mining operations highlights the added difficulty, time and cost to bring new mineral production online, and the competitive advantage of resources located in areas where there is water.

Carbon steels
Carbon steel production in 2006 was over 1.2 billion tonnes. This is 40 times the size of the stainless market and molybdenum is beginning to establish a foothold in carbon steels through the development of Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS). These revolutionary developments in steelmaking are allowing steel to recapture ground lost to aluminum and plastics over decades. Given the size of this segment relative to stainless, the potential for increased molybdenum consumption is truly extraordinary.

In this category, we see an increasing number of applications for molybdenum:

One is pipeline steels containing in the order of 0.25 percent molybdenum. Engineering studies have shown significant project cost reduction using advanced high strength steels in pipelines, even with the increased unit price of the product. The reduced wall thickness allowed by these new steels requires less steel overall for the pipeline, reduces transportation costs, and lowers construction costs. Tremendous logistical value can accrue as well when you consider that some of the legacy pipeline pipe is so heavy that each 40-ft. piece (“joint”) requires a separate truck –132 truckloads per running mile!

Currently, molybdenum demand in this application is limited by the availability of capacity: The vast majority of the world’s pipe mills have yet to upgrade to the newer grades like X100 and X120, which contain higher levels of molybdenum.

Nippon Steel, for example, is so convinced that X120 pipe is the product of the future, they’re setting up a separate division to handle it, and adding compressed gas cylinder production in the same material.

North American auto producers are increasing their usage of advanced high strength steels each year under a program that will see the material requirement expand relative to that of legacy steels by a factor of 4 times over the next ten years. Advanced high strength steels give their cars the 5-star crash safety test ratings that have become so important in automotive marketing. The new steels have made it possible to achieve better safety structures without adding weight.

The same goes for Europe where all carmakers want high EuroNCAP crash test ratings. And after this push to satisfy consumer demand for safer cars, the European Union's renewed focus on reducing vehicle carbon dioxide emissions is again highlighting the weight-saving potential of AHSS.

Arthur D. Little notes that this weight reduction can improve fuel economy about 5 percent and will cost only 212 additional euros per car. The consulting firm claims the new steels will yield more fuel savings than several powertrain technologies: variable valve timing, turbocharging and cylinder deactivation.

Weight reduction also allows lighter brakes and less powerful engines.

Automotive sheet steels in Asia are increasingly being upgraded to AHSS following the European and US lead. In January-February 2007, China produced 1.38 million automobiles units, an increase of 21.5 percent year on year. In 2006, China produced 7.28 million units, an increase of 27.6 percent over 2005.
NUCOR has demonstrated the ability to produce an advanced high-strength steel sheet, called 590 Mpa dual phase steel, from scrap.

[sneake]

wird die auch in deutschland gelistet werden?

[Firsteven]

When Do You Sell - Blue Pearl or Other Big Winners?

Apr. 13/07


Making a lot of money quickly bothers people. From the emails I am receiving I sense investors are nervous and are considering selling some shares just to be sure they retain some profit.
That is a logical course to follow. As per our prior writing we continue to look to add to our position when stocks are moving up, but will become sellers when and if;

1) If management changes course - at present their plan is
a. Focus on moly
b. Focus on debt reduction

2) Fundamentals of the industry change.
If moly prices start a downtrend due to increased supply or a world economic downturn.
At the present time trends in pricing, supply and the world economy are all in favour of the Company.

3) The shares/value become too large a percentage of your portfolio.

This last reason may depend on your personal comfort level, but a general rule of thumb is no more than 20% of your money in any one stock. Think of waking up Monday morning to find the mine flooded or the sector has become an environmental disaster. As per the next topic, blue chips are often held as a percentage of a portfolio as insurance against such a sudden shift.

This sale - despite ever rising prices, will instil the trading discipline you need to assure yourself you will be able to weather rough markets and have the cash and stocks that allow you to remain in the game.

Big Banks and Institutions - Safety and Big Gains
Don't be dedicated to only the most speculative names. Don’t turn up your nose at quality.

From the email I take it we are all happy to continue in Blue Pearl as it ramps up production and cash flow. Our advice of the past two days - archived at www.amprogram.com has been right on the money for out performance.

It isn't only the Blue Pearl Mining ventures of the world that strike gold in your account. If you feel the market is too dangerous or that they you can't sleep at night thinking of what might happen to your if shares in that rubber plantation in the Unpronounceable Country are confiscated - buy shares in the Bank or insurance company where you are a client.

Some of the safest of the Blue chips offer terrific returns over time. Here is a sample of the long term gains:

Company Symbol 10 year price return
National Bank NA 15.69
Royal Bank RBC 15.59
Bank of Nova Scotia BNS 15.31
CIBC CM 12.28
Bank of Montreal BMO 11.04

and they pay a decent dividend , which they steadily increase, as well.

You cannot dedicate all your money to small caps, non-dividend payers in the hope that you find a Blue Pearl every few months. That isn't even speculating, that is outright gambling.

The natural gas plays we are following have no dividends and rise and fall with weather patterns and predictions of hurricanes. That is too risky a basket for all your money

Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM on Toronto)
Oil made a nice move up today. Time for the AMP to continue its accumulation of a basket of producers. (We already have Oilexco -OIL on Toronto).

Talisman is a large international oil and gas producer with;

Natural Gas production on Alberta and British Columbia, Canada
Light oil production in Alberta
Light oil and gas production in the North Sea
Oil and Gas production in Indonesia
A new oil discovery in Vietnam

It is the management that makes this company a superior holding. It is the management that built the Company to the diversified entity it is today. Oil, and to a lesser extent gas, production is in arguably short supply. Talisman is an exploration success and likely new discoveries like that in Vietnam will add to its lustre.

Royal Bank estimates its net asset value at only $22.00 and the market price is substantially discounted when it is compared to its peers.

We are adding Talisman because we believe the world economy is in growth - more than enough to offset a slowdown in the U.S. Even in the U.S. demand for oil shows no sign of slowing.

It was announced yesterday that China's oil imports grew more than 6% year over year and it is likely demand from India and other high growth developing countries will be growing as well.

The really large super-majors like BP, Connocco and Total have failed to replace their reserves at a rate fast enough to assure world economies of a great enough supply. Saudi Arabia production is down more than 6 % year over year, the large reservoir in Mexico is in decline, Venezuelan politics has caused a decline their production and Iraq is a long way from its former status as a world force in oil production. Nigeria has a huge potential destroyed by corruption. These big oil companies have merged with one another to acquire reserves.

Talisman is always on the rumour list as a takeover. It simply is in the right sector at the right time to produce profits for the AMP Portfolio

[Firsteven]

How the Global Warming Agenda Affects Critical Nonferrous Metal Demand

By Jack Lifton
12 Apr 2007 at 02:21 PM GMT-04:00


DETROIT (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Last week, I wrote an article for RI about the fact that the Federal Government's principal advisory service on technical matters, the National Academies of Science (NAS), is now finally addressing a critical issue for America's economic future that rarely gets any attention from the Congress or the President, the identification of the present and future impact on the U.S. economy, and on America's security, of shortages of, or the total secession of availability of, metals and minerals without which our industrial economy cannot function.

In order to address the issue it was first necessary for the NAS to find out which are the critical strategic materials without which America cannot function. One of the ways they chose to identify these materials was to ask our largest end user of metals, the General Motors Corporation [NYSE:GM], to send a representative to a meeting with a mandate to openly reveal which metals are, or should be, considered by heavy industry to be today both strategic and critical.




I published the current "top five" list presented to the NAS meeting by the gentleman from GM last week.

Rhodium
Platinum group metals (PGMs)
Lithium
Molybdenum
Rare earth metals
I want to expand upon last week's discussion and delve deeper today into how the global warming agenda impacts the strategic and critical position of each of these metals. Long-term investors are the audience I am addressing.

Although the decline of the competitiveness of American heavy industry is attributed solely to high labour costs by ill-informed politicians the decline really began when the environmentalist agenda gained ascendancy in the United States during the Vietnam era.

The effect of environmentalism upon the American domestic production and refining of natural resources of metals, minerals and energy has been to add such costs and delays to their production that the domestic sourcing of American industry's annual demand for any of the five metals listed above, except for molybdenum, is physically impossible and the costs of these five, representative metals, has gone up so much, without exception, that, their price volatility is an excellent illustration of the little known fact that raw material cost increases have been a more significant cause of industrial bankruptcies in U.S. heavy industry than labour costs.

To be fair, in some cases, such as rhodium, this is not due only to environmentalism it is also due to the fact that there is no domestic commercial source of rhodium (always a byproduct or secondary material) readily found or being worked in the U.S.

I do not agree with those who think I should say the same about domestic platinum and palladium and exempt those two metals from the negative impact of environmentalism on their domestic supply. The U.S. has considerable resources of platinum and palladium bearing chromite ores in Northern California, Oregon and Washington State as well as large deposits of palladium bearing ores containing significant amounts of platinum and rhodium, yes rhodium, in and around the geologic formation that broaches at Stillwater, Montana.

Although the Stillwater deposits are commercially mined there is only now, with the advent of the commercialization of the Pro-Or [TSXv:POI] process, the potential for commercially mining the chromite ores of the American West and commercially recovering the platinum, palladium and rhodium therein contained as by products. The chalcogenide ores of the platinum group metals mined at Stillwater are anathema to activist environmentalists, because extracting the PGMs requires processing large quantities of sulfur, selenium and tellurium all three very toxic both as metals and compounds.

The newly organized Michigan nickel mining venture, which surely contains PGMs as are known in and recovered from the geologically nearby Sudbury nickel mines in Ontario, Canada has now been stopped by environmentalists thus setting back the solution of the global warming problem through reducing the supply of critical metals.

As for lithium, there is one deposit being worked in the U.S. It is a desert brine pool in Nevada, and it produces less than half of our current yearly demand. Lithium rich deposits of the mineral spudomeme are not mined or processed in the U.S. due to environmental restrictions.

Molybdenum is produced both primarily and secondarily (as a byproduct of copper) in the U.S., and as long as copper production is maintained at its current high levels a significant amount of molybdenum will be produced in the U.S. probably enough for America to be self sufficient.

The mining and refining of rare earth metals in the U.S. has ceased entirely because of environmental issues. One of the great tragedies of the current uranium rush is that the thorium rich monazites of southern California, which are rare earth minerals, are not mined because there is no commercial use for and thus no processing of the tailings from such mining that are rich in thorium, which environmentalists see as a radiation hazard rather than as a safe source of fuel for nuclear reactors, which would produce no global warming gases at all and no weapons grade byproducts.

Today the global warming agenda has added, in America, in particular, and more detrimentally economically than anywhere else in the world, its anti-growth influence to activist environmentalism to accelerate the impossibility of America achieving natural resource and energy independence and the reduction of greenhouse gas production.

In America the cost of the technology to ensure arbitrary, politically drawn, levels of air and water cleanliness is added well before a shovelful of earth is turned or a processing facility is even ordered. This has insured that those nations who do not concern themselves with such niceties or have realistic determined allowable pollution levels have now eclipsed America in mining and processing of a growing list of the materials upon which we critically depend.

I am writing this during a snowstorm in mid-April, which is helping to make this April in Michigan it is said the coldest in 113 years. Notwithstanding this aberration let us assume that global warming is real and it is man made as the American political elites have decreed.

How will the global warming agenda affect the use of any or all of the currently critical materials listed above in the long run?

Rhodium usage and therefore demand in the U.S. will go ultimately to a very low figure. Perhaps zero. Why? Because almost all of the new rhodium imported into the U.S. each year goes to make that part of an automotive emission control catalyst, which reduces nitrogen oxides produced in the internal combustion of liquid petroleum fuels burned in air, which oxides form corrosive and toxic acids with water, to ordinary nitrogen, the gas which normally is 80% of the air we breathe. As and if hybrids proliferate they will use a combination of a small very efficient, low emission, internal combustion engine and a battery pack. Such vehicles already use much less rhodium (and much less platinum and palladium) than a car of equivalent weight propelled only by an internal combustion engine (ICE) burning gasoline or diesel fuel. A large ICE powered car or SUV burning hydrogen such as the 100 test vehicles built by BMW and now on the road will use no rhodium (or platinum or palladium) at all. Likewise no PGMs will be required by a battery powered all electric car. Even a fuel cell powered electric car which is fuelled by hydrogen will use no rhodium. Ethanol blend fueled ICEs require as much rhodium in their exhaust emission control catalyst as those fueled by gasoline or diesel fuel, so if Ethanol becomes the fuel of choice to replace straight gasoline or diesel fuel rhodium usage and demand will be maintained.
Platinum and palladium usage for exhaust emission control will also decline and ultimately disappear as electric and hydrogen propulsion replace gasoline and diesel fuelled ICEs. Investors should watch fuel cell technology news carefully. Today's fuel cells of a size necessary to produce enough electric power to run a mid size car use between 1 and 3 ounces of platinum in their construction. There is no way today with platinum at $1200 per ounce that a fuel cell can be competitive. In any case even with only 1 ounce of platinum per fuel cell global production of new platinum is at 6 million ounces per year so if all of it went for fuel cell production for mobile power use only 8% of the ICE powered cars now built yearly could be replaced. This will never happen no matter what the price of platinum, because there simply is no where near enough platinum supply possible. Researchers are currently on the trail of fuel cells that use no platinum or much, much, less platinum. When that happens, platinum will no longer be a critical or strategic material. I predict that within 25 years America will be self sufficient in platinum if the fuel cell catalyst usage problem can be solved.
Today there is no other technology on the horizon that can be used to make batteries of sufficient capacity and life cycles than lithium. In order for the U.S. to be self sufficient or approach self-sufficiency in lithium will require that spudomeme mineral deposits be worked. They are not now because of environmental objections. This, the recovery of lithium from spudomene in the U.S., will be a political crisis when it becomes necessary. It will be a test of environmentalism even at the cost of our economy versus the reduction of greenhouse gases to save our planet. I look forward to this battle, and I suggest that all of you keep a supply of popcorn handy for the show.
Molybdenum is used in (high strength corrosion resistant) tubular goods for oil field production and distribution, high temperature metals for tooling and automobile exhaust manifolds, and in some chemical operations as a catalyst. If the global warming agenda moves us towards a world where oil and natural gas are used more and more only for non-fuel purposes then the first two uses of molybdenum will decline and America will remain self sufficient in molybdenum probably just from its byproduct production from copper mining. Current designs for mobile power fuel cells use a lot of molybdenum strengthened steel to conduct heat and corrosive flows, so some automotive demand would remain even in an age of hydrogen powered fuel cells.
Rare earth metals are critical components of super strong magnets used in miniaturized mechanical components, and in electronic devices, and for nanomaterials. Just as an example, off the top of my head, I think it may be impossible to build wind following windmills and sun following solar collectors without rare earth metal components. In addition nickel metal hydride batteries need rare earth metals as do fuel cells. The U.S. has large deposits of rare earth containing minerals that are not mined due to environmentalist objections. Will we need a Solomonic leader to decide between environmentalism and global warming?
Whether or not the global warming agenda can be actualized will depend in great part on finding compromises between activist environmentalism and production of critical materials from domestic resources. It is time to stop pretending that the two agendas do not compete.

[Firsteven]

As always China is again proving the anal-ysts and pundits wrong w/ their endless so called expert predictions on metals & demands etc...KR

China's Steel Product Exports Grow Steadily This Year, Despite Restraining Policy

By Interfax-China
12 Apr 2007 at 07:59 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's steel product exports will continue their steady rise this year, despite government efforts to curb exports by cancelling export tax rebates on the majority of steel products, said industry officials at the 2007 China Steel Import & Export Seminar held in Shanghai.

China's domestic steel product prices will remain lower than international levels, although the newly released export tax rebate policy will cause domestic prices to rise, said Qi Xiangdong, Deputy General Secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).





The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Bureau released a joint policy on Tuesday to cancel the current 8% export tax rebate on the majority of steel products on April 15, with the exception of cold-rolled products, stainless steel and silicon steel that will have their export tax rebates cut to 5%.

Low prices in the domestic market will cause steel product exports to rise moderately this year, but the growth rate will definitely be less than last year, Qi said.

China's steel product exports increased to 43.01 million tonnes in 2006, up 110% from 2005, while imports of steel products dropped 28.3% to 18.51 million tonnes, a net steel product export of 24.50 million tonnes. Billet net exports reached 8.67 million tonnes last year.

"The CISA predicts steel product exports will be controlled to within 10% of total output this year. This is regarded as both appropriate and normal export performance," Qi said.

According to CISA forecasts, China will produce between 462 million and 475 million tonnes of crude steel in 2007, up between 10.3% and 13.4% from the previous year, this is based on an average daily steel output of 1.26 million tonnes in the first quarter, as well as new steel projects that will commence production this year. Total production of steel products will reach 527 million tonnes this year.

The CISA also predicts that China's steel product and billet net exports will fall 10 million tonnes this year, while steel product imports will remain stable from 2006 at approximately 17.50 million tonnes. "Restrictive export policies and a slowdown in domestic steel production growth will decrease net exports," Qi explained.

Qi also commented that the Central Government is likely to release further policies in an attempt to lower steel product exports this year, if the newly released policy does not have the desired effect on exports.

Huang Guohua, Director of the Statistics Department of the General Customs Administration agreed that China's steel product exports are set to grow in 2007, due to steel product demand in the international market rising with the steady growth of the global economy.

"China's steel market still requires exports to alleviate the domestic oversupply problem, steel product exports will not slow down in the short-term after the new export tax rebates policy is implemented," he added.

Despite RMB appreciation, Chinese steel products will maintain their international price advantage in 2007, causing steel product exports to increase. There will also be challenges from steel product export related trade disputes, Huang commented.

Domestic steel mills have increased exports in the first quarter of this year in anticipation of the export tax rebate cancellation policy which will come into effect on April 15.

In the first quarter of this year, China's steel product exports increased 118.4% to 14.13 million tonnes. China's steel product and billet net exports reached 11.56 million tonnes during this period.

[Firsteven]

Die Aufmerksamkeit wird durch die nachfolgende Meldung noch größer. Sprott überzeichnet, China Moly überzeichnet - da kaufen die Leute die noch super günstige Blue Pearl eben. Was dabei raus kommt hat man ja heute gesehen.

Wann darf schon auf die Short-Daten per 15.04. gespannt sein. Wurden nochmal 1 Mio. Stück gedeckt worden - oder sogar noch mehr??? Es dürfte nächste Woche weiter UP gehen!


China Moly 10-fach überzeichnet

China Molybdenum oversubscribed by 10 times
Snapshot: AUA BLE CBS CYU GVI LWC ROK TCR TJS WRY

I had to laugh over the last week when moly plays corrected 10%-20% and the moly top callers were blogging that it was time to abandon moly and move back to uranium. Act I of Moly Mania concluded last week and Act II began this afternoon. Leeward Capital (LWC.V), Western Troy (WRY.V) and Columbia Yukon (CYU.V) are the featured performers in Act II.


http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=2&art_i…

Another listing candidate, China Molybdenum, said it will raise its top- end offer price by 40 HK cents to HK$6.80, amid overwhelming response from institutional investors.

Sources close to the deals said the international tranche of China Molybdenum has been oversubscribed by 10 times,........

Meanwhile, the increase in China Molybdenum\'s top-end offer price will increase the maximum funds raised to HK$7.3 billion. The company announced Thursday it will issue 1.083 billion H shares, or 22.7 percent of its enlarged share capital, at an indicative range of HK$5 to HK$6.80.

Luoyang-based China Moly said it plans to spend HK$2.4 billion - about 40 percent of the net IPO proceeds - on acquiring mines and mining rights, with another HK$2.4 billion used to expand the company\'s molybdenum and tungsten production capabilities.

The company posted 30.9 percent growth in net profit last year to 1.5 billion yuan (HK$1.52 billion) on the back of flourishing worldwide sales.

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 49 Min. und 30 Sec.


Friday, April 13, 2007 7:00 PM ET
Market Call Tonight with Michael Hainsworth
Canadian and U.S. Large Caps and Global Equities
Bill Harris, partner and portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management


Recommendation: Only Comment
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. BLE-T
A pure molybdenum play and is trading roughly 10 X earnings. Very speculative, so treat it as a trade.

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 49 Min. und 30 Sec.


Friday, April 13, 2007 7:00 PM ET
Market Call Tonight with Michael Hainsworth
Canadian and U.S. Large Caps and Global Equities
Bill Harris, partner and portfolio manager, Avenue Investment Management


Recommendation: Only Comment
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. BLE-T
A pure molybdenum play and is trading roughly 10 X earnings. Very speculative, so treat it as a trade.

[sneake]

bist hier der alleinunterhalter?lol

[schnucksche]

Japanese ferromoly imports from Chile will no longer be

subject to a duty now that the Japan-Chile Economic

Partnership has been signed by the governments of

both countries (Ryan's Notes, Oct. 2, 2006, p4). Japan

imported 740 mt of FeMo from Chile in 2006, up 42%

from imports of 520 mt in 2005. In 2006 imports from

China fell 11% to 2,985 mt from 3,345 mt the year

before. It is not clear when the duty on Chilean FeMo

will officially be removed, but the Japanese Ministry

of Economy, Trade and Industry expects it will be by

the end of 2007.

China's government did not hike export taxes on ferroalloys

on Apr. 1, as some industry sources had expected, but a

spokesperson for the China Ferroalloys Industry Assn.

noted that higher taxes could still be introduced later this

year, especially as the relevant government ministries

are discussing dates for implementation. The increased

taxes introduced to date have not been enough to slow

the flow of ferroalloys out of China. China exported

2,358,977 mt of ferroalloys in 2006 compared to

1,735,815 mt in 2005. The exports included: 284,410 mt

(169,222 mt in 2005) of ferromanganese; 1,331,053 mt

(940,997 mt) of ferrosilicon; 518,099 mt (376,601 mt)

of silicomanganese; 49,181 mt (59,558 mt) of ferrochrome;

3,022 mt (21,890 mt) of silicochrome; 18,598

mt (25,132 mt) of ferromoly; 5,833 mt (6,011 mt) of ferrotungsten

and 10,930 mt (3,779 mt) of ferrotitanium.

Ferromoly prices were off slightly in Europe, but steady in

the US. A European mill claimed to have purchased

FeMo at below $72 per kg, although traders thought

prices still were $72-73 per kg. Unsolicited offers of

FeMo from China have increased, but traders are leery

about paying $68 per kg for material for shipment. In

the US, truckload sales of FeMo were booked at $31

per lb. Oxide prices have narrowed to $28-28.50 per lb.

There were some consumer inquiries for briquettes late

last week. Generally, traders feel that the tone of the

market remains bullish.

------------ --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- -------

Quadra Mining, owner of the Robinson copper mine in

Nevada, has made an offer to buy International

Molybdenum (InterMoly), owner of the Malmbjerg

moly project in Greenland. InterMoly has recommended

accepting the offer, which calls for one new Quadra

share for every 36.22 InterMoly shares and one new

Quadra share for every 99.23 InterMoly warrants. The

offer values each InterMoly share at approximately

10.68 pence and each InterMoly warrant at about 3.9

pence, representing a premium of roughly 78% to the

market price of an InterMoly share and a premium of

about 11.3% to the market price of an InterMoly warrant

at the close of business on Mar. 6, 2007. Galahad Gold

has accepted the offer in respect to the 106,666,700

InterMoly shares and 3,333,350 InterMoly warrants it

owns. If the deal goes through, Galahad will own about

7.1% (6.4% fully diluted) of the issued share capital of

Quadra. Quadra is developing the Carlota copper project

in Arizona and has an option on the Sierra Gorda project

in Chile where it is conducting an exploration program.

__._,_.___

[schnucksche]

Myra Saefong's Commodities Corner
Nickel's rally is Molybdenum's Gain


By Myra Saefong, MarketWatch



SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have climbed more than 200% in the past year and some of their success has been spilling over to molybdenum.
Why? Nickel and molybdenum are metals which enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel, so molybdenum can sometimes be used to subsidize nickel content.

The biggest threats to nickel's rally are "replacement metals," said James Finch, a senior editor at StockInterview. com. "For nickel, there has been quiet substitution of molybdenum, which is slowly creeping higher in price.
Not everyone agrees that metal substitution is a real threat to the nickel market. But it's one contributor to the growing need around the world for molybdenum.
So is it too late to invest in nickel -- and what are the prospects for molybdenum?
First, investors need to consider the biggest driver for the base metals' rally.
"Everyone is underestimating growth in the Chinese market," said Finch. "We've gotten steady and fairly reliable info that this growth is not slowing down, as many forecast."

And China's and India's growth in commodity consumption is just "part of the story," said Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. "We see emerging-market demand growth all over the globe."
Against that backdrop, nickel prices soared to $50,000 per metric ton Thursday -- an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange, according to BaseMetals.com. That's more than $22 a pound.
And molybdenum costs around $30 a pound, according to InfoMine.com -- about a 500% jump from the level seen four years ago. It's at its highest price since Nov. 2005, though prices peaked at over $45 in June 2005.
Supply factor
Explaining the price strength is as simple as taking a look at supply.
Nickel has "tended towards global deficits these past couple of years -- a pattern that was widely expected to abate in 2007," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.
But that was "before numerous supply disruptions kept the market undersupplied, " he said.
As of March 27, nickel supplies tracked by the LME were down 25% since the turn of the year -- a period that has seen 35% price growth, Parry said. Supplies are down 85% from the corresponding period last year, while prices are up over 200% from that period.
As of Thursday, LME nickel stocks stood at 4,812 metric tons, not too far from the Feb. 6 level of 2,982, which was the lowest since July 1991, according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.

"The result of strong nickel demand has led to only enough LME global warehouse stock to provide an equivalent supply of just over a day's worth of global-nickel consumption, " said Scott Wright, an analyst at financial-services company Zeal LLC.
The figures for molybdenum aren't so current. But global production was estimated at 416 million pounds in 2005, with demand that year pegged at 400 million, according to a January newsletter from the International Molybdenum Association.
Molybdenum is a by-product of copper and when copper production was curtailed or suffered because of infrastructure problems in the early 2000s, molybdenum availability tightened as well, explained Hayes.
"Even now, nearly all copper producers still see molybdenum as just a by-product and do not make extra efforts to maximize production," he said.
Replacement concept
Regardless, Finch said it's not a "one-for-one switch" from nickel to molybdenum. "There is a nickel shortage, but not a molybdenum shortage."
"The substitutions are being done in tiny percentages to reduce 'surcharges' ," he said.
"When the stainless steel manufacturer sells the final product, he tacks on an 'alloy surcharge'" and the nickel shortage caused the alloy surcharge to run more than 70% of the price of the steel product, Finch explained.
So "by reducing some of the nickel content and adding other metals -- such as chromium, manganese and molybdenum, this reduces the nickel surcharge to the final price," he said.
In stainless steels, molybdenum is used along with chromium to raise corrosion resistance, according to the International Molybdenum Association' s newsletter. Around 10% of world stainless-steel production contains molybdenum.
Still, although many analysts agree that the steel industry has been using molybdenum as a stand-in for some of the nickel content in certain stainless steels, the degree to which that'll continue to happen is a bit fuzzy.
Molybdenum is a "much smaller market than nickel and less in the way of potential new sources of supply [so] it is hard to imagine molybdenum replacing nickel in any significant way," said Lawrence Roulston, editor of Resource Opportunities.
Also, substituting one metal for another is a long-term process, he said.
"In the end, when the switching begins, it just spreads the shortages around and pushes up the alternative commodity," said Sprott's Bambrough.
Molybdenum deposits are more common than nickel, but it "has exactly the same problems in terms of short-term supply," said Eric Coffin, co-editor of HardRockAnalyst. com, which offers publications focused on resource stocks.
So "while many metals are at prices that make substitution a potential option, the fact remains that it's not easy to find substitutes that are not in the same supply-constrained situation," he said.
Experts expect molybdenum "to be in shortage as well and it's not any cheaper than nickel," Coffin said.


"Until a couple of major operations come on stream, in a year or two, molybdenum isn't likely to provide any relief for nickel consumers," he said.
Growing demand
That said, the $12 billion market for molybdenum is changing, according to Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., which pegs itself as the world's largest publicly-traded pure molybdenum producer.
There are more and more uses for molybdenum -- 25 years ago it wasn't used in cars, said McDonald. Now there are 15 small component parts in a car that use molybdenum, and 50 million cars were made last year, he said. "Steel markets are reclaiming markets lost to aluminum and plastic."
Global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a rate better than 4% per year over the last 50 years, and it climbed 6% last year, said McDonald.
Over in China, demand grew about 20% last year, he said, pointing out that the world market for molybdenum was 230 million pounds back in 1993 and the Chinese, at that time, were producing 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million. Now, China produces 80 million pounds and is a net exporter of 30-40 million.
Molybdenum's use in nuclear plants also offers a potential demand boost.
Every nuclear plant is going to require -- depending on the design -- between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, said McDonald. The nuclear reactor itself is around 6% molybdenum.
For now, pipelines are the "single biggest consumer" of molybdenum, he said.
Nickel's gain
As for nickel itself, current pricing is reaching levels that look "unsustainable, " said Coffin.
Then again, the largest use for nickel is stainless steel production, said Coffin. That's a "high-end use and even at current prices, substitution for end uses like ... stainless steel is not easy."
And the fact that nickel is over $20 a pound suggests that there is "huge pent-up demand" for it, said Resource Opportunities' Roulston.
Roulston stressed, however, that there is a difference between speculating on a higher nickel price and profiting from the long-term bull market in metals.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn't bet a dime on nickel going higher," he said. Though, "my subscribers are making huge profits by investing in the companies that are focused on the fundamental factor in the metal markets, which is the critical shortage of supply."
And with nickel supplies headed for a deficit this year and investment funds buying most base metals, "there is further upside price potential," said BaseMetals.com' s Hayes.
Opportunity knocks
The one thing analysts didn't seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott's Bambrough.
There's a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 [and] ... we wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.
So what's the best way to get in on that action?

"The best way to invest in any of the base metals is to invest in those companies that are in the best position to benefit from the supply deficits ... exploration and development companies that have deposits that are advancing toward production, or that might be taken over by larger companies," said Roulston.
Sprott Asset Management has a new molybdenum investment vehicle in the works.
It plans to launch trading of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in the second half of April.
The company, which will trade in Canada under the ticker "MLY," will be a public company that invests in "both physical molybdenum and companies that have exposure to molybdenum," according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott.
"It's pretty unique; the first of its kind," she said.
And Blue Pearl has agreed to provide technical-advisory services to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. relating to the molybdenum business and/or physical molybdenum, she said.
__._,_.___

[Firsteven]

News & Events
Apr 03, 2007 Molybdenum Conference

Orion will be hosting a molybdenum conference in Toronto on
April 17.
Please contact your Orion salesperson to register for the event.


Quelle: http://www.orionsecurities.ca/


Nächste Woche Dienstag ist die Konferenz! Scheint ja nächste Woche recht spannend zu werden.
China Moly, Sprott Listing, Orion Moly Konferenz.

[Firsteven]

Und hier haben wir es:

BLUE PEARL MINING LTD.
NOTICE OF ANNUAL AND SPECIAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders (the “Meeting”) of
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (the “Company”) will be held at the National Club, 303 Bay Street, Toronto,
Ontario, on Thursday, May 10, 2007 at 4:00 p.m. (Toronto time), for the following purposes:
(a) To receive and consider the audited consolidated financial statements of the Company
for the year ended December 31, 2006 and the report of the auditors thereon;
(b) To consider and, if deemed appropriate, to pass, with or without variation, a special
resolution authorizing and empowering the directors to determine the number of directors
of the Company within the minimum and maximum number set forth in the articles and
the number of directors of the Company to be elected at the annual meeting of
shareholders of the Company, as more particularly described in the accompanying
management information circular;
(c) To elect directors of the Company for the ensuing year;
(d) To appoint PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Chartered Accountants, as auditors of the
Company for the ensuing year and to authorize the directors to fix their remuneration;
(e) To consider and, if deemed appropriate, to pass with or without variation, a resolution
approving the change of name of the Company to “Thompson Creek Metals Company
Inc.”;
(f) To consider and, if deemed appropriate, to pass, with or without variation, a resolution
approving amendments to the Company’s stock option plan, as more particularly
described in the accompanying management information circular; and
(g) To transact such other business as may properly come before the Meeting or any
adjournment thereof.
This notice is accompanied by a management information circular, a form of proxy and the audited
consolidated financial statements of the Company for the financial year ended December 31, 2006.
Shareholders who are unable to attend the Meeting are requested to complete, date, sign and return the
enclosed form of proxy so that as large a representation as possible may be had at the Meeting.
The board of directors of the Company has by resolution fixed the close of business on April 4, 2007 as
the record date, being the date for the determination of the registered holders of Common Shares entitled
to receive notice of the Meeting and any adjournment thereof.
The board of directors of the Company has by resolution fixed 48 hours (excluding Saturdays, Sundays
and holidays) before the time for holding the Meeting or any adjournment thereof as the time before
which proxies to be used or acted upon at the Meeting or any adjournment thereof shall be deposited with
the Company’s transfer agent.
DATED at Toronto, Ontario this 30th day of March, 2007.
By Order of the Board of Directors
“Ian J. McDonald”
Ian J. McDonald
Executive Chairman

[Patient07]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.808.403 von sneake am 14.04.07 13:03:39

Nein, wie du siehst "kennt" er hier mehrere Leute... Wenn du weisst wovon ich spreche...

[Firsteven]

Letter to Shareholders

We are very pleased to report that our Company went
through a major transformation in 2006 with important
benefits to shareholders.

At the beginning of the year, Blue Pearl was focused on
developing a molybdenum deposit in northern British
Columbia. By late October, due to the acquisition of
privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company, Blue
Pearl was transformed into a large, integrated North
American primary molybdenum producer with annual
production in excess of 20 million pounds of molybdenum
– making our Company one of the five largest molybdenum
producers in the world.

Blue Pearl’s producing assets, which provide us with a
strong competitive advantage within the industry, include
the Thompson Creek open-pit mine and mill near Challis,
Idaho, a large metallurgical roasting facility at Langeloth,
Pennsylvania, and a 75% interest in the Endako
open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility near Fraser Lake,
British Columbia. The Company also continues to develop
its previously owned asset, the underground Davidson
Deposit, near Smithers, British Columbia.

Change brings new priorities
The dramatic change in the Company necessitated a
substantial shift in management focus. Our Company’s
current priorities are to:

Continue to manage our operating properties in a safe
and profitable manner;
Continue to pay down the debt incurred as part of the
acquisition financing;

Increase the mineral resources and reserves and the
mine life of the mines owned by the Company (engineering
studies for this purpose are underway);

Take the necessary steps to bring the Davidson Deposit
into production; and
Undertake additional growth initiatives that have the
potential to further increase shareholder value.
Continue performance at existing operations

The existing operating properties are the heart of Blue
Pearl. The Thompson Creek Mine, the Endako Mine,
and the Langeloth roasting facility are the keys to our
Company’s success. We are fortunate to have acquired
excellent management and a highly competent workforce
at all three properties. We will continue to operate
these properties in a manner that is profitable for our
shareholders, safe for our workforce and environmentally
responsible for our local communities. The continuing
successful operation of these facilities will allow us to do
all that we have planned for Blue Pearl.

Pay down debt
The Company’s bank debt as of the end of 2006 was
US$402 million. Current arrangements call for the repayment
of the bulk of this debt within five years. The price of
molybdenum in world markets as of the end of 2006 was
relatively strong at about US$25 per pound. If the price
stays near this level in the future, the Company will be in
an excellent position to pay down the debt faster than
planned. In March 2007, the Company prepaid its US$62
million Second Lien Credit Facility.

New mine plans are being developed
We are developing new mine plans at Thompson Creek
and Endako. The new plans will be based on a re-evaluation
of mineral resources and reserves assuming a long-term
molybdenum price of US$10 per pound and updated
costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price
of US$5 per pound at Thompson Creek and US$3.50 per
pound at Endako.

The next stage of development at Thompson Creek will be
to widen and deepen the existing pit, assuming there
are positive results from a mine re-design study by
John T. Boyd Company. At Endako, Wardrop Engineering
is similarly studying the expansion of the existing pit
assuming a higher molybdenum price and updated costs.
In addition, the engineering firm is conducting a scoping
study to determine the viability of constructing a superpit,
unifying three existing pits, and of increasing ore
production to 50,000 tonnes per day from approximately
30,000 tonnes per day. The studies are expected to be
completed by mid-2007 with additional work possibly
necessary during the balance of the year.

Davidson Deposit is important for future growth
Our Davidson Deposit, which is Canada’s largest undeveloped
molybdenum deposit, is important in the Company’s
future as it represents an opportunity for organic growth at
low capital cost. The deposit’s high-grade core is easily
accessible with minimal impact on the environment. A feasibility
study is currently being conducted by Hatch Ltd.
and is expected to be completed during the second quarter
of 2007. The study is examining the feasibility of mining
2,000 tonnes of high-grade ore per day from the deposit
and shipping it to the Endako facility 200 kilometres away
for processing. We expect positive results from the feasibility
study and from the application for environmental
permitting, which will soon be submitted to provincial
authorities. Should mining at Davidson begin as expected
in late 2008, it would significantly increase the Company’s
overall annual molybdenum production.

Outlook is positive
For Blue Pearl, the price of molybdenum on world markets
is the single most important variable in cash flow and
profitability. Our current reading of supply and demand
fundamentals points to a relatively strong molybdenum
price for the foreseeable future. There are many industry
developments that we believe are supportive of this view.
One is an increase in capital investment in the energy
industry, which is a major source of demand for the
strengthening and anti-corrosion contribution that
molybdenum provides in steel products. Other reasons
include a continuation of a declining trend over the last
several years in Chinese exports and several new and
expanded uses for molybdenum. A strong molybdenum
price can be expected to produce very favourable financial
results for the Company over time as it should significantly
exceed our cost of production.

However, the Company believes management action will
also have an important impact on Blue Pearl’s growth and
profitability in the future. Following the acquisition, Blue
Pearl embarked on a long-term strategy to maximize mine
life and profitability at its existing operations. In addition to
the initiatives to re-evaluate mineral resources and reserves
and develop new mine plans, management adopted plans
for optimizing the Thompson Creek operation. The 28,500
tons per day processing facility had been operating on a
7-day-on, 7-day-off rotation. Early in 2007, as an interim
step, we converted the operation to a 10-day-on, 4-day-off
rotation. This was increased to a continuous production
schedule in March 2007. The results of the additional mill
throughput are expected to be an increase of 2.4 million
pounds of molybdenum production over the original plan
for 2007.

The Thompson Creek operation is currently expected to
produce 12.8 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 at an
estimated cost, including roasting, of US$8.50 per pound.
Production will be lower and unit costs higher in 2007
compared with 2006 because of a lower head grade as the
operation transitions to the next mining phase, and as the
accelerated stripping required to expose the next phase of
the orebody is completed. In addition, a low-grade stockpile
is being used as mill feed for part of the year in order to
operate the mill on a full-time basis and increase the
production of molybdenum. The increased output from the
milling of lower-grade feed is anticipated to increase unit
costs, but also to increase cash flow. Production in 2008 is
expected to return to a more normal level of 17 million
pounds of molybdenum resulting in lower unit costs.

We expect the Company’s 75%-owned Endako operation
to produce 11.3 million pounds of molybdenum (8.5 million
pounds to Blue Pearl’s account) in 2007 at a cost of $6.65
per pound including roasting costs. In 2008, production is
expected to total 13.3 million pounds (10 million pounds to
Blue Pearl’s account) and per-unit costs are expected to
be reduced.

The name Blue Pearl has been a successful one for our
Company. However, for many of our shareholders,
customers, suppliers, and the communities in which we
work, the name Thompson Creek Metals Company is more
familiar and more descriptive of our Company as it is now
constituted. Consequently, we will seek approval from
shareholders to change the name of our Company to
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.

In summary, we are optimistic about the future growth
and profitability of Blue Pearl. The Company’s molybdenum
production is currently expected to be 21 million
pounds in 2007, rising to 27 million pounds in 2008 and
29 million pounds in 2009. This includes only production
from Thompson Creek and the Company’s 75% share of
production at Endako; it specifically excludes any potential
production from the Davidson Deposit, which is conditional
upon a positive feasibility study and permitting.
Management is working on plans at Thompson Creek
and Endako to increase production beyond these levels.

As production rises, there will be a consequent positive
impact on cash flow and profitability (assuming the continuation
of a relatively strong molybdenum price) and a
likely additional positive effect from a decline in average
per-pound costs of production. If the Company is successful
in bringing the Davidson Deposit on-stream in the
time frame currently anticipated, Blue Pearl’s total production,
cash flow and profitability would be significantly
enhanced in 2009.

Our focus on additional growth initiatives to enhance
shareholder value is currently aimed at opportunities to
acquire molybdenum concentrates being produced
at existing mines or expected to be produced at
mines under development. We believe there may be
possibilities to acquire molybdenum concentrates under
favourable terms for subsequent roasting at our Langeloth
metallurgical facility.

We would like to thank our shareholders for their support in
2006 and our more than 700 employees for their hard work
and dedication to bringing about positive results in their
respective workplaces. We would also like to extend our
appreciation to the members of the Board of Directors for
their wisdom and guidance through what can only be
described as an incredible year. Mr. John Kalmet, who has
served on the Board since 2005 and has been invaluable in
providing timely advice and particular insight into the
molybdenum market, will be retiring from the Board at the
upcoming annual meeting. We wish to thank John for his
diligence as a Board member and his technical expertise as
a mining engineer and wish him the best in his retirement.

Sincerely,
On behalf of the Board of Directors,
Ian J. McDonald Kevin Loughrey
Executive Chairman President and
Chief Executive Officer
Toronto, March 26, 2007

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.817.152 von schnucksche am 14.04.07 20:12:56

hier ist noch der Rest des genialen Berichtes:

Myra Saefong's Commodities Corner
Nickel's rally is Molybdenum's Gain


"Until a couple of major operations come on stream, in a year or two, molybdenum isn't likely to provide any relief for nickel consumers," he said.
Growing demand
That said, the $12 billion market for molybdenum is changing, according to Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (CA:BLE: news, chart, profile) , which pegs itself as the world's largest publicly-traded pure molybdenum producer.
There are more and more uses for molybdenum -- 25 years ago it wasn't used in cars, said McDonald. Now there are 15 small component parts in a car that use molybdenum, and 50 million cars were made last year, he said. "Steel markets are reclaiming markets lost to aluminum and plastic."
Global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a rate better than 4% per year over the last 50 years, and it climbed 6% last year, said McDonald.
Over in China, demand grew about 20% last year, he said, pointing out that the world market for molybdenum was 230 million pounds back in 1993 and the Chinese, at that time, were producing 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million. Now, China produces 80 million pounds and is a net exporter of 30-40 million.
Molybdenum's use in nuclear plants also offers a potential demand boost.
Every nuclear plant is going to require -- depending on the design -- between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, said McDonald. The nuclear reactor itself is around 6% molybdenum.
For now, pipelines are the "single biggest consumer" of molybdenum, he said.
Nickel's gain
As for nickel itself, current pricing is reaching levels that look "unsustainable," said Coffin.
Then again, the largest use for nickel is stainless steel production, said Coffin. That's a "high-end use and even at current prices, substitution for end uses like ... stainless steel is not easy."
And the fact that nickel is over $20 a pound suggests that there is "huge pent-up demand" for it, said Resource Opportunities' Roulston.
Roulston stressed, however, that there is a difference between speculating on a higher nickel price and profiting from the long-term bull market in metals.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn't bet a dime on nickel going higher," he said. Though, "my subscribers are making huge profits by investing in the companies that are focused on the fundamental factor in the metal markets, which is the critical shortage of supply."
And with nickel supplies headed for a deficit this year and investment funds buying most base metals, "there is further upside price potential," said BaseMetals.com's Hayes.
Opportunity knocks
The one thing analysts didn't seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott's Bambrough.
There's a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 [and] ... we wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.
So what's the best way to get in on that action?
"The best way to invest in any of the base metals is to invest in those companies that are in the best position to benefit from the supply deficits ... exploration and development companies that have deposits that are advancing toward production, or that might be taken over by larger companies," said Roulston.
Sprott Asset Management has a new molybdenum investment vehicle in the works.
It plans to launch trading of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in the second half of April.
The company, which will trade in Canada under the ticker "MLY," will be a public company that invests in "both physical molybdenum and companies that have exposure to molybdenum," according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott.
"It's pretty unique; the first of its kind," she said.
And Blue Pearl has agreed to provide technical-advisory services to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. relating to the molybdenum business and/or physical molybdenum, she said.
As for the miners, Zeal LLC's Wright likes Idaho General Mines (GMO : idaho gen mines inc com
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 6.02-0.03-0.50%

GMO6.02, -0.03, -0.5%) , which he says owns the largest global molybdenum project in the permitting stage. He owns shares in GMO. He also likes Blue Pearl.
Blue Pearl is "highly confident our Davidson mine will have full production in 2009," with 4.5 million pounds annually, the company's McDonald said.
'Companies that are in the thick of things are willing to keep buying assets at current prices -- which tells you a lot about how they expect metal prices to look going forward.'
— Eric Coffin, HardRockAnalyst.com
For his part, Coffin said he follows a number of nickel and molybdenum exporters and developers, though "the list is fairly short and getting shorter in both cases."
Coffin's longer-term pick is Rio Narcea (CA:RNG: news, chart, profile) , which produces nickel in Spain. It just agreed to a takeover offer from Lundin Mining (CA:LUN: news, chart, profile) .
"We expect a few other companies on the hraadvisory.com list will 'go away' before the year ends," said Coffin.
"That may be the best comfort for investors that do not know the metals markets well; companies that are in the thick of things are willing to keep buying assets at current prices -- which tells you a lot about how they expect metal prices to look going forward."
Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[Firsteven]

Hier nochmal mein Posting vom 17.03.2007!

Sprott geht also von Kursen von mehr als 40 USD aus.
Wo dann der faire Kurs liegen würde könnt ihr unten nach lesen.
Zu dem Zeitpunkt war das KGV von 10-14 von China Moly noch nicht bekannt und auch nicht das Sprott 3 Mio. Aktien von Blue Pearl zeichnet.

Fazit: Weiterhin hervorragende Aussichten und ein super Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis - trotz des schönen Kursanstieges der letzten Tage!!!!


The one thing analysts didn't seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott's Bambrough.
There's a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 [and] ... we wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.



Posting 17.03.2007:

Blue Pearl - Gewinnschätzung / KGV / Molybdenum-Price / Kursziel / Vorausschau:

GMP ist in seiner Kaufstudie von folgenden Kennzahlen ausgegangen:

Ebitda 2006e = 91 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis - 24,75 USD
Ebitda 2007e = 357 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 24,75 USD
Ebitda 2008e = 520 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 25 USD

Die Molyförderung ist wie folgt geplant:
2007: 21 Mio Pfund
2008: 27 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 2 Mio aus Davidson) = 29 Mio. Pfund
2009: 29 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 5 Mio aud Davidson) = 34 Mio. Pfund

Ebitda: Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern und Afa (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization)



Hochrechnung Zinsaufwand für 2007:

Zum Jahresanfang hatte Blue Pearl in etwa 402 Mio. USD Verbindlichkeiten.

Davon 62 Mio. hochverzinslich - Libor + 10%. Diese Tranche wurde in dieser Woche sondergetilgt! Siehe News.
Dadurch spart Blue Pearl 9 Mio. USD Zinsen im Jahr.
Sagen wir mal für 2007 entfallen rd. 2 Mio. Zinsen für die ersten 2-3 Monate.

Die restlichen 340 Mio. USD (First Lien Credit Facility) hat eine Verzinsung von Libor + 4,75% p.a.;
Vierteljährliche Tilgung 18,75 Mio. USD.
Der Libor für 2007 wird durchschnittlich mit 5,4% erwartet. D.h. wir hätten für die 1. Tranche über 340 Mio. USD eine Verzinsung von durchschnittlich 10,15% p.a..

Die Höhe der Kredittilgung an UBS ist wie folgt vorgesehen:
Tilgung 2007: 75 Mio US-Dollar (=18.75 Mio. USD im Quartal)
Tilgung 2008: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2009: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2010: 50 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2011: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2012: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Die Tilgung erfolgt jeweils vierteljährlich zu gleichen Raten.

Zinsaufwand 1. Quartal:
340 Mio. USD x 10,15% für 3 Monate: rd. 8,7 Mio. USD
62 Mio. USD für 3 Monate: rd. 2 Mio. USD (entfällt für die nächsten Quartale wg. Sondertilgung)
Gesamtzinsaufwand 1. Quartal: 10,7 Mio. USD.

Zum Ende des 1. Quartals hat Blue Pearl noch eine Verschuldung von 320 Mio. USD.

Für die nächsten 3 Quartale in 2007 gehe ich von folgenden Zinsaufwand aus:
Verschuldung: 320 Mio. USD. Ich rechne damit das wir mind. die Hälfte noch in 2007 tilgen werden, d.h. rd. 160 Mio. USD für die nächsten 3 Quartale. D.h. 54 Mio. Tilgung im Quartal - anstatt 18,75 Mio. USD.

Für die nächsten 3 Quartale errechnet sich daher folgender Zinsaufwand:
2. Quartal: 8,1 Mio. USD
3. Quartal: 6,7 Mio. USD
4. Quartal: 5,4 Mio. USD.

Somit hätten wir für 2007 einen Zinsaufwand von insgesamt 30,9 Mio. USD - also rd. 31 Mio. USD die jährlich das Ergebnis belasten. Je schneller daher die Verbindlichkeiten zurück geführt werden, desto profitabler wird unsere Blue Pearl.
Es ist daher dem Management wieder sehr hoch anzurechnen, dass sie es geschafft haben, dass das 2. Darlehen welches hochverzinslich ist mit 15,4% p.a. - vorzeitig abgelöst wurde!!! Das kommt wieder alles den Aktionären zu Gute.

In 2008 werden dann die restlichen 160 Mio. USD getilgt. Hier gehe ich von einem Zinssatz von 10,15% p.a. aus und
4 Quartalstilgungen von je 40 Mio. USD.

D.h. für 2008 errechnet sich ein Zinsaufwand zzgl. ersparter Zinsen von 10,2 Mio. USD



Abschreibung:
Abschreibung 2007:
Die Afa lag bei Thompson Creek gem. Zwischenbericht für die ersten 9 Monate in 2006 bei rd. 10,5 Mio. USD. Das wären 3,5 Mio. USD pro Quartal. Jetzt ist ja Blue Pearl noch dazu gekommen.
Die Afa u. Kosten von Blue Pearl sind sehr gering - daher hier keine weitere Betrachtung. Für die ersten 9 Monate hat man einen Verlust von 3 Mio. USD ausgewiesen - das fällt nicht weiter ins Gewicht.

Rechnet man die Afa für 9 Monate auf das Gesamtjahr hoch - so kommt man auf 14 Mio. USD.
Ich gehe in der Berechnung mal von rund 25 Mio. USD für 2007 aus. Man hat ja schließlich - wie Ian auf div. Präsentationen mitteilte - auch noch investiert.

Für 2008 verdoppele ich mal die Afa - da ja auch Davidson in Produktion geht und hier ja auch kräftig investiert werden muss. Also für 2008 - 50 Mio. USD Afa.



Steuern:
GMP-Schätzung: Ebitda 2007e = 357 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 24,75 USD

2007:
357 Mio. USD
abzgl. 25 Mio. Abschreibung
abzgl. 31 Mio. Zinsaufwand
verbleibt ein erwarteter Vorsteuergewinn von 301 Mio. USD.
Was ich im Netz so gefunden habe - werden Unternehmen in Canada mit ca. 35% besteuert.
Abzgl. 35% Steuern verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 195,6 Mio. USD für 2007 - Basis Moly-Preis von 24,75 USD und einer Produktion von 21 Mio. Pfund Moly.
Diese rd. 200 Mio. USD nehme ich dann als Basis für die KGV und Kursziel Berechnung.

2008:
Ebitda 2008e = 520 Mio USD - Basis: Moly-Preis 25 USD

520 Mio. USD
abzgl. 50 Mio. Afa
abzgl. 10 Mio. Zinsaufwand
verbleibt ein erwarteter Vorsteuergewinn von 460 Mio. USD.
abzgl. 35% Steuern verbleibt ein Nachsteuergewinn von 299 Mio. USD - Basis Moly Preis 25 USD und eine Produktion von 27-29 Mio. Pfund Moly.
Diese rd. 300 Mio. USD nehme ich dann als Baiss für die KGV und Kurziel-Berechnung.




KGV-Berechnung auf Basis der Nachsteuergewinne für 2007 und 2008 von GMP:

Nachsteuergewinn 2007: 200 Mio. USD
Nachsteuergewinn 2008: 300 Mio. USD

Shares: 103,3 Mio. Stück
Shares (voll verwässert) = 140,1 Mio. Stück.

KGV 2007: 200 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 1,93 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 (erachte ich als niedrig, vorsichtig) x 1,93 USD = 11,58 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 8,68 EUR

Die Betrachtungsweiße voll verwässert lasse ich hier mal weg, da bei voll verwässert Blue Pearl wieder erheblich Gelder zufließen würden die dann wiederum zur Schuldentilgung verwand werden könnten. Die Auswirkungen möchte ich hier nicht auch noch darstellen - das führt zu weit.

KGV 2008: 300 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 2,90 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 2,90 USD = 17,4 USD Kursziel = 13,05 EUR


Diese Zahlen basieren nun auf Moly-Preise von 24-25 USD! Aktuell stehen wir bei 30 USD - Tendenz steigend.

Alternativ-Szenario bei steigendem Moly-Preis:

Was passiert jetzt mit dem Gewinn, wenn der durchschnittliche Moly-Preis für 2007 nicht mehr bei 24,75 USD liegt sondern bei:

30 USD:
Für 2007 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 200 Mio. errechnet. 2007 wird Moly über 21 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 30/35/40 USD etc. ) von 105 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 68 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2007 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 268 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2007: 268 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 2,59 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 2,59 USD = 15,54 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 11,65 EUR


35 USD:
Für 2007 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 200 Mio. errechnet. 2007 wird Moly über 21 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 30/35/40 USD etc. ) von 210 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 136 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2007 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 336 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2007: 336 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 3,25 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 3,25 USD = 19,5 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 14,62 EUR


40 USD:
Für 2007 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 200 Mio. errechnet. 2007 wird Moly über 21 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 30/35/40 USD etc. ) von 315 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 205 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2007 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 505 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2007: 505 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 4,88 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 4,88 USD = 29,28 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 22,00 EUR


Und für 2008 liegt der durschnittliche Moly-Preis nicht bei 25 USD sondern bei

35 USD:
Für 2008 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 300 Mio. errechnet. 2008 wird Moly über ca. (ich setzte mal den Schnitt an) 28 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 35/40/50 USD etc. ) von 280 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 182 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2008 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 482 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2008: 482 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 4,66 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 4,66 USD = 27,96 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 21,00 EUR



40 USD:
Für 2008 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 300 Mio. errechnet. 2008 wird Moly über ca. (ich setzte mal den Schnitt an) 28 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 35/40/50 USD etc. ) von 420 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 273 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2008 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 573 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2008: 573 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 5,54 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 5,54 USD = 33,24 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 25,00 EUR


50 USD:
Für 2008 hatten wir ja einen Nachsteuergewinn von 300 Mio. errechnet. 2008 wird Moly über ca. (ich setzte mal den Schnitt an) 28 Mio. Pfund gefördert.
Blue Pearl hätte Zusatzeinnahmen durch den höheren Moly-Preis (ausgehend von rd. 25 USD abzgl. geschätzter durchschnittlicher Moly-Preis 35/40/50 USD etc. ) von 700 Mio. USD. 35% Steuern ab - verbleibt ein zusätzlicher Nachsteuergewinn von 455 Mio USD.
Insgesamt macht das für 2008 dann ein Nachsteuergewinn von 755 Mio. USD.

KGV-Berechnung/Kursziel:
KGV 2008: 755 Mio. USD : 103,3 Mio. Aktien = 7,31 USD Gewinn je Aktie.
KGV von 6 x 7,31 USD = 43,86 USD Kursziel (Kurs x 0,75) = 32,90 EUR



Fazit:

Ich denke ein Moly-Preis von 50 USD sind nicht unrealistisch, da Sprott sonst nicht in den Markt investieren würde - siehe Uran-Preis-Entwicklung und Timing von Sprott.
Die Maxime von Sprott ist:
Investition nur wenn mehrere 100% winken!!! Daher dürfte aus meiner Sicht sogar noch mehr als 50 USD drin sein.

An den o.g. Beispielrechnungen sieht man einmal welche (extremen) Auswirkung der Moly-Preis auf die Kursentwicklung von Blue Pearl haben kann.

Jetzt ist folgendes noch zu bedenken bzw. zu den o.g. Zahlen hinzuzurechnen:

1. Was passiert wenn der Moly-Preis noch stärker als 50 USD steigt?

2. Wie sieht die Kursziel Berechnung aus, wenn wir von den Reserven/Resourcen ausgehen.
Derzeit haben wir Reserven/Resourcen über rd. 1 Mrd. Pfund Moly. Sprott geht von 1,3 Mrd. Pfund aus (wg. Davidson anstatt 288 Mio. Pfund - 588 Mio Pfund - die Wahrheit hierüber werden wir in den nächsten 4 Wochen erfahren).

Gehen wir mal von der Schätzung von Sprott aus: 1,3 Mrd. Pfund x aktueller Moly-Preis 30 USD = Marktwert 39 Mrd. USD.
Bei produzierenden Unternehmen rechnet man 10-25% der Reserven/Resourcen als faire Marktkapitalisierung.
Das würde heißen - vorsichtig berechnet 10% von 39 Mrd. USD = 3,9 Mrd. USD Marktkapitalisierung bzw. 2,92 Mrd. EURO.
Derzeit haben wir eine Marktkapitalisierung von 670 Mio. EUR!!!! 2,9 Mrd. EURO wären fair = Kurziel: 28 EURO.

2 Alternativ-Szenarien:
Die Reserven/Resourcen von TC, Endako sollen ja mächtig ausgeweitet werden (Veröffentlichung Ende April). Experten gehen von einer Verdoppelung aus.
Schätzen wir mal, dass Blue Pearl Ende April über Reserven/Resourcen von rd. 2,5 Mrd. Pfund Moly verfügt.
2,5 Mrd. Pfund x 30 USD = 75 Mrd. USD. 10% davon = 7,5 Mrd. USD bzw. faire Marktkapitalisierung von 5,6 Mrd. EUR = Kursziel 54 EURO!!!

Jetzt steigt aber der Moly-Preis nicht nur auf 30 USD sondern auf 50 USD und die Reserven/Resourcen belaufen sich auf 2,5 Mrd. Pfund: 50 USD je Pfund x 2,5 Mrd. Pfund Moly = Marktwert: 125 Mrd. USD x 10% = 12,5 Mrd. USD = 9,4 Mrd. EUR Marktkapitalisierung = fairer Kurs 91 EUR!!!!


3. An der Börse wird die Zukunft gehandelt (und bei Übernahmen sicherlich auch - Hochrechnung der Gewinne etc.). Für 2009 soll die Produktion inkl. Davidson auf 34 Mio. Pfund gesteigert werden. Das wird die Gewinne nochmals explodieren lassen.

4. Was passiert wenn Ian weitere geniale Deals einfädelt! Das Management,welches genial ist, ist noch gar nicht mit eingepreißt.
Kann die Produktion bei Endako (neue Super-Pit soll entstehen) und Thompson Creek vielleicht noch deutlich ausgeweitet werden??


Eine kleine Veränderung (Moly-Preis-Anstieg, Produktionsausweitung, Ausweitung der Reserven/Resourcen, Beteiligung von Sojitz und vorzeitige Schuldentilgung uvm.) kann (und wird) extreme Auswirkungen auf die Kursziele/Gewinnschätzungen von Blue Pearl haben!!!!

Ein Kursziel (von Blue Pearl) auf Sicht bis Ende 2008 von 50 EUR ist bei einem unterstelltem Moly-Preis von 50 USD - nicht auszuschließen. Es sei denn Blue Pearl wird vorher übernommen - was ich mir nicht wünsche - nur zu einem richtig guten Preis - und dafür wird Ian Mc Donald schon sorgen.

An den verschiedenen Berechnung sieht man eindeutig was für eine Kurschance hier vorhanden ist. Das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis ist einmalig. Das Risiko dürfte mit max. 20-25% nach unten begrenzt sein.
Die Kurschance ist jedoch super - hier sind mehrere 100% (1000%?) möglich.
Der aktuelle Kurs ist derzeit ein Witz. Ich denke aber das wir bis Ende April bzw. bis zum Sommer deutlich fairer bewertet sind als aktuell.
Wenn ihr euch mal das ganze Umfeld anseht und die Fakten wirken laßt, dann werdet ihr feststellen, dass das aktuell weiterhin klarste Kaufkurse sind! Nur meine Meinung.

Keine Gewähr für eventl. Rechenfehler. Dies stellt keine Kaufempfehlung dar.

[chartex]

Berechnung der künftigen Gewinne und des fairen Aktienkurses

Nachdem seit einiger Zeit entsprechende Zahlen vorliegen (Jahresbericht 2006), und meine turnusmäßige Überprüfung der Investmententscheidung sowieso überfällig war, habe ich versucht, den fairen Kurs der Blue-Pearl-Aktie aufgrund dieser Zahlen zu ermitteln. Ich stütze mich dabei im wesentlichen auf das KGV, da dieser Masstab bei einer breiten Zahl der Anleger verwendung findet und insofern geeignet ist, zu einem Bild zu kommen, das auch andere Anleger bei entsprechender DD erhalten sollten.

Eine Berechnung des fairen Kurses nach Rohstoffen im Boden erscheint mir im Moment nicht sinnvoll, da diese sich seit meiner letzten Berechnung nicht geändert haben, hingegen in Kürze gravierende Änderungen durch entsprechende News anstehen.

Eine Bewertung, indem zukünftiger Erträge auf den Wert von heute abgezinst werden, erscheint mir ebenfalls nicht sinnvoll, da sich die Höhe des zukünftigen Molypreises nicht seriös über einen Zeitraum von mindestens 10 Jahren prognostizieren lässt, in diese Rechnung jedoch zumindest die nächsten 10 Jahre einfliessen müssten. Da der Molypreis der ganz überwiegend bestimmende Faktor für die künftigen Erträge ist, wäre das Ergebnis nur ein Ratespiel.


Vorgaben:
Es ist schon nicht möglich, die genaue Entwicklung des Molybdänpreises für das Jahr 2007 und 2008 vorherzusagen. Nach meiner Auffassung wird der durchschnittliche Molypreis bei mindestens 30 US-Dollar je Pfund liegen (vermutlich sogar darüber). Dies ist deshalb der Wert, den ich für meine Berechnung ansetzte. Sobald sich neue Erkenntniss über einen veränderten Molypreis ergeben, müsste die Berechnung entsprechend angepasst werden.

BPM hat eine vertragliche Lieferverpflichtung über 5% der Molyförderung aus der Phase-6-TC-Produktion zu Preisen unterhalb des Marktpreises. Ich gehe davon aus, dass dies zu eine Erlösschmälerung von 3% der TC-Produktion führen wird. Da andererseits ein Teil der Produktion aufgrund guter Qualität des Moybdäns auf dem Spotmarkt zu Preisen von einigen Prozent über dem durchschnittlichen Marktpreis abgesetzt werden kann, gehe ich davon aus, dass beide Effekte sich in etwa ausgleichen und rechne zum oben genannten Preis ohne Ab- oder Aufschläge.

Die wesentlichen Informationen stammen aus dem Anual Report 2006 vom 13.4.2007 (www.sedar.com).

Berechung des Gewinnes 2007


Die Thompson-Creek-Mine soll 2007 12,8 Mio Pfund produzieren. Bei 30 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 384 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten betragen 8,50 US-$ je Pfund (Seite 6 Anual Report) für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 108,8 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 275,2 Mio US-$.

Die Endako-Mine (nur der BPM-Anteil wurde in der Rechnung berücksichtigt) soll 2007 8,5 Mio Pfund produzieren. Bei 30 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 255 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten betragen 6,65 US-$ je Pfund (Seite 6 Anual Report) für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 56,5 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 198,5 Mio US-$.

Bei der Übernahme von Thompson Creek waren 7,8 Mio Pfund Moly im Lager. Laut der Telefonkonferenz nach der Bekanntgabe der Jahreszahlen muss zur Sicherstellung der Lieferfähigkeit ein Bestand erhalten bleiben, der der Produktion von etwa 65 Tagen entspricht. Aus dem Lagerbestand konnten damit im 1.Quartal ca. 4 Mio Pfund Moly verkauft werden. Dies entspricht Erlösen von etwa 120 Mio US-$. Dagen zu rechnen sind noch verbliebene 29,6 Mio US-$ an buchhalterischen Kosten bedingt durch die Berwertung zu Makrtpreisen bei Übernahem (Seite 30 des Anual Report).
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 90,4 Mio US-$.

In Langeloth wurde Moly für Fremdfirmen geröstet. Nach einer Mail aus den letzten Tagen wurde dafür ein Entgelt von ca. 1 $ je Pfund erzielt. Diesen Satz verwende ich auch für das Moly-Recycling, welches in Langeloth betrieben wird. Zusätzlich wurde Molykonzentrat angekauft, geröstet und in eigenem Namen verkauft. Die genauen Konditionen sind mir nicht bekannt. Ich rechne deshalb konservativ, dass der Überschuß daraus nicht höher ist als bei der Fremdröstung. Die Rösterei in Langeloth hat eine Kapazität 35 Mio Pfund pro Jahr. 12,9 Mio werden für die Röstung der eigenen Produktion verwendet. Somit verbleibt eine freie Kapazität von 22,2 Mio Pfund und führt zu Erlösen in gleicher Höhe in US-$.

Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 586 Mio US-Dollar.
Ausgehend von dem Jahreszahlen für 2006 ergeben sich (ggf. auf das komplette Jahr hochgerechnet) folgende Kosten:
Selling and Marketing 7 Mio US-$
Depreciation and depletion 26 Mio US-$
Verwaltung 25 Mio US-$
Zinsen 30 Mio US-$ (unter Berücksichtigung von vorzeitiger Tilgung)
Entwicklung von Davidson 5 Mio US-$

Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 493 Mio US-$

Die GMP-Analyse geht von einer Ertragsteuer-Belastung in Höhe von 32-37% aus. Ich rechne mit 34%.

Somit verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 325,4 Mio US-$.

Umgerechnet in kanadische Dollar sind das etwa 374 Mio CAD.

Seit der Einlösung der Warrants am 22.März und der in Kürze abgeschlossenen Kapitalerhöhung zugunsten von Sprott sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 3,37 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem konservativen KGV von 8 ergäbe sich ein fairer Kurs der Aktie von 26,96 CAD
Wenn man das KGV der IPO der chinesischen Moly-Mine von 14 zugrunde legt, so ergibt sich ein Kurs der Aktie von 47,18 CAD.

Berechung des Gewinnes 2008


Die Thompson-Creek-Mine soll 2008 17 Mio Pfund produzieren. Bei 30 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 510 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten betragen weniger als 8,50 US-$ je Pfund (2007 musste viel taubes Gestein weggeräumt werden) und könnten sich wieder dem Wert für 2006 in Höhe von 5,83 US-$ annähern. Konservativ nehme ich den Mittelwert der beiden Angaben und erhalte 7,16 US-$ je Pfund für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 121,7 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 388,3 Mio US-$.

Die Endako-Mine (nur der BPM-Anteil wurde in der Rechnung berücksichtigt) soll 2008 10 Mio Pfund produzieren. Bei 30 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 300 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten sollen geringer sein als im Vorjahr. Eine genauere Angabe habe ich nicht gefunden und ich rechne konservativ mit 6,30 US-$ je Pfund für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 63 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 237 Mio US-$.

In Langeloth wurde Moly für Fremdfirmen geröstet. Nach einer Mail aus den letzten Tagen wurde dafür ein Entgelt von ca. 1 $ je Pfund erzielt. Diesen Satz verwende ich auch für das Moly-Recycling, welches in Langeloth betrieben wird. Zusätzlich wurde Molykonzentrat angekauft, geröstet und in eigenem Namen verkauft. Die genauen Konditionen sind mir nicht bekannt. Ich rechne deshalb konservativ, dass der Überschuß daraus nicht höher ist als bei der Fremdröstung. Die Rösterei in Langeloth hat eine Kapazität 35 Mio Pfund pro Jahr. 17 Mio werden für die Röstung der eigenen Produktion verwendet. Somit verbleibt eine freie Kapazität von 18 Mio Pfund und führt zu Erlösen in gleicher Höhe in US-$.

Die Davidson-Mine hat gegen Ende 2008 die Produktion aufgenommen 2 Mio Pfund Moly produziert. Bei 30$ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 60 Mio US-$.
Die genauen Produktionskosten sind noch nicht bekannt. Geschätzt wurde ein Betrag von 5-6 $ je Pfund. Ich rechne mit 6 $ und erhalte Kosten von 12 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 18 Mio US-$.

Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 661,3 Mio US-Dollar.
Ausgehend von dem Jahreszahlen für 2006 ergeben sich (ggf. auf das komplette Jahr hochgerechnet) folgende Kosten:
Selling and Marketing 7 Mio US-$
Depreciation and depletion 26 Mio US-$
Verwaltung 25 Mio US-$
Zinsen 5 Mio US-$ (unter Berücksichtigung von vorzeitiger Tilgung - der Kredit konnte aufgrund des erzielten Gewinnes in 2007 weitgehend abgetragen werden und ist bis zur Jahresmitte 2008 vollständig getilgt)
Entwicklung von Davidson 50 Mio US-$

Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 548,3 Mio US-$

Die GMP-Analyse geht von einer Ertragsteuer-Belastung in Höhe von 32-37% aus. Ich rechne mit 34%.

Somit verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 361,9 Mio US-$.

Umgerechnet in kanadische Dollar sind das etwa 416,2 Mio CAD.

Seit der Einlösung der Warrants am 22.März und der in Kürze abgeschlossenen Kapitalerhöhung zugunsten von Sprott sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 3,75 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem konservativen KGV von 8 ergäbe sich ein fairer Kurs der Aktie von 30 CAD
Wenn man das KGV der IPO der chinesischen Moly-Mine von 14 zugrunde legt, so ergibt sich ein Kurs der Aktie von 52,50 CAD.
Die Berechnung müsste bei geändertem Molypreis entsprechend angepasst werden.


Berechung des Gewinnes 2009

Die Thompson-Creek-Mine soll 2009 18 Mio Pfund produzieren (sieh Grafik der Präsentation vom 27.3.2007 - www.bluepearl.ca). Bei 30 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 540 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten betragen weniger als 8,50 US-$ je Pfund (2007 musste viel taubes Gestein weggeräumt werden) und könnten sich wieder dem Wert für 2006 in Höhe von 5,83 US-$ annähern. Konservativ nehme ich den Mittelwert der beiden Angaben und erhalte 7,16 US-$ je Pfund für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 128,9 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 411,1 Mio US-$.

Die Endako-Mine (nur der BPM-Anteil wurde in der Rechnung berücksichtigt) soll 2009 12 Mio Pfund produzieren (siehe Grafik der Präsentation vom 27.3.2007 - die mögliche Entwicklung einer Super-Pit-Mine ist hier noch nicht enthalten). Bei 30 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 360 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten sollen geringer sein als im Vorjahr. Eine genauere Angabe habe ich nicht gefunden und ich rechne konservativ mit 6,30 US-$ je Pfund für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 75,6 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 284,4 Mio US-$.

In Langeloth wurde Moly für Fremdfirmen geröstet. Nach einer Mail aus den letzten Tagen wurde dafür ein Entgelt von ca. 1 $ je Pfund erzielt. Diesen Satz verwende ich auch für das Moly-Recycling, welches in Langeloth betrieben wird. Zusätzlich wurde Molykonzentrat angekauft, geröstet und in eigenem Namen verkauft. Die genauen Konditionen sind mir nicht bekannt. Ich rechne deshalb konservativ, dass der Überschuß daraus nicht höher ist als bei der Fremdröstung. Die Rösterei in Langeloth hat eine Kapazität 35 Mio Pfund pro Jahr. 18 Mio werden für die Röstung der eigenen Produktion verwendet. Somit verbleibt eine freie Kapazität von 17 Mio Pfund und führt zu Erlösen in gleicher Höhe in US-$.

Die Davidson-Mine hat gegen Ende 2008 die Produktion aufgenommen und erreicht 2009 die volle geplante Kapazität von 4,7 Mio Pfund Moly. Bei 30$ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 141 Mio US-$.
Die genauen Produktionskosten sind noch nicht bekannt. Geschätzt wurde ein Betrag von 5-6 $ je Pfund. Ich rechne mit 6 $ und erhalte Kosten von 28,2 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 112,8 Mio US-$.

Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 825,3 Mio US-Dollar.
Ausgehend von dem Jahreszahlen für 2006 ergeben sich (ggf. auf das komplette Jahr hochgerechnet) folgende Kosten:
Selling and Marketing 7 Mio US-$
Depreciation and depletion 30 Mio US-$ (incl. Davidson)
Verwaltung 25 Mio US-$

Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 763,3 Mio US-$

Die GMP-Analyse geht von einer Ertragsteuer-Belastung in Höhe von 32-37% aus. Ich rechne mit 37%.

Somit verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 480,9 Mio US-$.

Umgerechnet in kanadische Dollar sind das etwa 553 Mio CAD.

Seit der Einlösung der Warrants am 22.März und der in Kürze abgeschlossenen Kapitalerhöhung zugunsten von Sprott sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 4,98 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem konservativen KGV von 8 ergäbe sich ein fairer Kurs der Aktie von 39,84 CAD
Wenn man das KGV der IPO der chinesischen Moly-Mine von 14 zugrunde legt, so ergibt sich ein Kurs der Aktie von 69,72 CAD.
Die Berechnung müsste bei geändertem Molypreis entsprechend angepasst werden.


Sollte ich etwas übersehen haben, so bitte ich um Korrektur. Eine Diskussion über diese Berechnung ist ausdrücklich erwünscht, soweit unterschiedliche Auffassungen bestehen.

chartex

[Cuba_Libre]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.822.601 von Firsteven am 15.04.07 01:26:12

ach ja...die gute alte myra! wie schrieb ich bereits am 07.04: endlich werden auch mädels auf bpm aufmerksam...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Myra Saefong\'s Commodities Corner
Nickel\'s rally is molybdenum\'s gain



By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:07 AM ET Apr 6, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have climbed more than 200% in the past year and some of their success has been spilling over to molybdenum.
Why? Nickel and molybdenum are metals which enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel, so molybdenum can sometimes be used to subsidize nickel content.



The biggest threats to nickel\'s rally are "replacement metals," said James Finch, a senior editor at StockInterview.com. "For nickel, there has been quiet substitution of molybdenum, which is slowly creeping higher in price.
Not everyone agrees that metal substitution is a real threat to the nickel market. But it\'s one contributor to the growing need around the world for molybdenum.
So is it too late to invest in nickel -- and what are the prospects for molybdenum?
First, investors need to consider the biggest driver for the base metals\' rally.
"Everyone is underestimating growth in the Chinese market," said Finch. "We\'ve gotten steady and fairly reliable info that this growth is not slowing down, as many forecast."



And China\'s and India\'s growth in commodity consumption is just "part of the story," said Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. "We see emerging-market demand growth all over the globe."
Against that backdrop, nickel prices soared to $50,000 per metric ton Thursday -- an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange, according to BaseMetals.com. That\'s more than $22 a pound.
And molybdenum costs around $30 a pound, according to InfoMine.com -- about a 500% jump from the level seen four years ago. It\'s at its highest price since Nov. 2005, though prices peaked at over $45 in June 2005.

Supply factor

Explaining the price strength is as simple as taking a look at supply.
Nickel has "tended towards global deficits these past couple of years -- a pattern that was widely expected to abate in 2007," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody\'s Economy.com.
But that was "before numerous supply disruptions kept the market undersupplied," he said.
As of March 27, nickel supplies tracked by the LME were down 25% since the turn of the year -- a period that has seen 35% price growth, Parry said. Supplies are down 85% from the corresponding period last year, while prices are up over 200% from that period.
As of Thursday, LME nickel stocks stood at 4,812 metric tons, not too far from the Feb. 6 level of 2,982, which was the lowest since July 1991, according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.



"The result of strong nickel demand has led to only enough LME global warehouse stock to provide an equivalent supply of just over a day\'s worth of global-nickel consumption," said Scott Wright, an analyst at financial-services company Zeal LLC.
The figures for molybdenum aren\'t so current. But global production was estimated at 416 million pounds in 2005, with demand that year pegged at 400 million, according to a January newsletter from the International Molybdenum Association.
Molybdenum is a by-product of copper and when copper production was curtailed or suffered because of infrastructure problems in the early 2000s, molybdenum availability tightened as well, explained Hayes.
"Even now, nearly all copper producers still see molybdenum as just a by-product and do not make extra efforts to maximize production," he said.

Replacement concept

Regardless, Finch said it\'s not a "one-for-one switch" from nickel to molybdenum. "There is a nickel shortage, but not a molybdenum shortage."
"The substitutions are being done in tiny percentages to reduce \'surcharges\'," he said.
"When the stainless steel manufacturer sells the final product, he tacks on an \'alloy surcharge\'" and the nickel shortage caused the alloy surcharge to run more than 70% of the price of the steel product, Finch explained.
So "by reducing some of the nickel content and adding other metals -- such as chromium, manganese and molybdenum, this reduces the nickel surcharge to the final price," he said.
In stainless steels, molybdenum is used along with chromium to raise corrosion resistance, according to the International Molybdenum Association\'s newsletter. Around 10% of world stainless-steel production contains molybdenum.
Still, although many analysts agree that the steel industry has been using molybdenum as a stand-in for some of the nickel content in certain stainless steels, the degree to which that\'ll continue to happen is a bit fuzzy.
Molybdenum is a "much smaller market than nickel and less in the way of potential new sources of supply [so] it is hard to imagine molybdenum replacing nickel in any significant way," said Lawrence Roulston, editor of Resource Opportunities.
Also, substituting one metal for another is a long-term process, he said.
"In the end, when the switching begins, it just spreads the shortages around and pushes up the alternative commodity," said Sprott\'s Bambrough.
Molybdenum deposits are more common than nickel, but it "has exactly the same problems in terms of short-term supply," said Eric Coffin, co-editor of HardRockAnalyst.com, which offers publications focused on resource stocks.
So "while many metals are at prices that make substitution a potential option, the fact remains that it\'s not easy to find substitutes that are not in the same supply-constrained situation," he said.
Experts expect molybdenum "to be in shortage as well and it\'s not any cheaper than nickel," Coffin said.

"Until a couple of major operations come on stream, in a year or two, molybdenum isn\'t likely to provide any relief for nickel consumers," he said.

Growing demand

That said, the $12 billion market for molybdenum is changing, according to Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (CA:BLE: news, chart, profile) , which pegs itself as the world\'s largest publicly-traded pure molybdenum producer.
There are more and more uses for molybdenum -- 25 years ago it wasn\'t used in cars, said McDonald. Now there are 15 small component parts in a car that use molybdenum, and 50 million cars were made last year, he said. "Steel markets are reclaiming markets lost to aluminum and plastic."
Global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a rate better than 4% per year over the last 50 years, and it climbed 6% last year, said McDonald.
Over in China, demand grew about 20% last year, Cool he said, pointing out that the world market for molybdenum was 230 million pounds back in 1993 and the Chinese, at that time, were producing 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million. Now, China produces 80 million pound
Every nuclear plant is going to require -- depending on the design -- between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, said McDonald. The nuclear reactor itself is around 6% molybdenum.
For now, pipelines are the "single biggest consumer" of molybdenum, he said.

Nickel\'s gain

As for nickel itself, current pricing is reaching levels that look "unsustainable," said Coffin.
Then again, the largest use for nickel is stainless steel production, said Coffin. That\'s a "high-end use and even at current prices, substitution for end uses like ... stainless steel is not easy."
And the fact that nickel is over $20 a pound suggests that there is "huge pent-up demand" for it, said Resource Opportunities\' Roulston.
Roulston stressed, however, that there is a difference between speculating on a higher nickel price and profiting from the long-term bull market in metals.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn\'t bet a dime on nickel going higher," he said. Though, "my subscribers are making huge profits by investing in the companies that are focused on the fundamental factor in the metal markets, which is the critical shortage of supply."
And with nickel supplies headed for a deficit this year and investment funds buying most base metals, "there is further upside price potential," said BaseMetals.com\'s Hayes.

Opportunity knocks

The one thing analysts didn\'t seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott\'s Bambrough. There\'s a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 Cool [and] ... we wouldn\'t be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.
So what\'s the best way to get in on that action?



"The best way to invest in any of the base metals is to invest in those companies that are in the best position to benefit from the supply deficits ... exploration and development companies that have deposits that are advancing toward production, or that might be taken over by larger companies," said Roulston.
Sprott Asset Management has a new molybdenum investment vehicle in the works.
It plans to launch trading of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in the second half of April.
The company, which will trade in Canada under the ticker "MLY," Cool will be a public company that invests in "both physical molybdenum and companies that have exposure to molybdenum," according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott.
"It\'s pretty unique; the first of its kind," Cool she said.
And Blue Pearl has agreed to provide technical-advisory services to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. relating to the molybdenum business and/or physical molybdenum, she said.
As for the miners, Zeal LLC\'s Wright likes Idaho General Mines (GMO GMO5.15, -0.27, -5.0% ) , which he says owns the largest global molybdenum project in the permitting stage. He owns shares in GMO. He also likes Blue Pearl.
Blue Pearl is "highly confident our Davidson mine will have full production in 2009," with 4.5 million pounds annually, the company\'s McDonald said.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.822.694 von chartex am 15.04.07 03:25:38

Hallo chartex,

super Arbeit.

Ich hatte diese Woche ebenfalls das KGV für 2008 ausgerechnet und bin bei einer Abweichung so um die 10% zu deinen Zahlen gelandet.

Ich hatte darufhin die Info eingestellt, dass wir bei einem Kurs von 14 CAD ungefähr bei einem KGV von 3,5 für 2008 stehen.

Somit kann sich jeder selber ausrechnen, was dies bei den aktuellen Börsengängen in China für Auswirkungen haben kann.

Denn spätestens mit den ersten Quartalszahlen von 2007 und der Bekanntgabe von weiteren Sondertilgungen des Kredits werden auch die Banken auf das Ergebnis kommen und ihre Kursziele entsprechend anpassen.

Wir beide wissen aber, dass unsere Berechnungen mit der ersten Übernahme eines Konkurennten sowieso dann zu Schall und Rauch werden.

Sollte jemand dagegen jetzt BluePearl schlucken wollen, dann ergibt der obligatorische 30%-Aufschlag ein Ziel von 19,50 CAD, was ja dem Paradigm-Kursziel entspricht.

Also ist es wichtig, dass der Kurs in den nächsten beiden Monaten keine Verschnaufspause einlegt. Denn nur so kann sichergestellt werden, dass wir für unser Aktien zumindestden den momentan fairen Wert von 30 CAD erhalten können.

Anmerkung: Bei einer Übernahme müsste mit der verwässerten Anzahl Aktien von etwas über 140 Mio. gerechnet werden.

Nimmt man jetzt den Mittelwert zwischen den von chartex ermittelten Werten von 30 und 52 CAD, so kommt man auf einen einiger Massen fairen Wert von etwas über 30 CAD.

Dies entspricht wiederum ungefähr dem aktuellen 28 CAD Kursziel von Sprott.

Also gehe ich davon aus, dass wir keine Phantasten sind und freuen uns auf die Entwicklung der nächsten Wochen.

Fazit: Zu den momentanen Parametern hat sich die Unterbewertung der Aktie zwar etwas reduziert, befindet sich aber immer noch im extremen Wertebereich.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.822.694 von chartex am 15.04.07 03:25:38

Riesiges Lob für dich für die tolle Arbeit.


Kleiner Hinweis: (habe einen Tipp oder Rechenfehler gefunden)

Schätzung 2008

Davidson:

Die Davidson-Mine hat gegen Ende 2008 die Produktion aufgenommen 2 Mio Pfund Moly produziert. Bei 30$ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 60 Mio US-$.
Die genauen Produktionskosten sind noch nicht bekannt. Geschätzt wurde ein Betrag von 5-6 $ je Pfund. Ich rechne mit 6 $ und erhalte Kosten von 12 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 18 Mio US-$.


Firsteven: Der Überschuss müsste sich auf 48 Mio. USD belaufen - anstatt auf 18 Mio. USD - kleiner Tippfehler


Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 661,3 Mio US-Dollar.

Firsteven: Das wären dann 30 Mio. USD mehr - somit 691,3 Mio. USD.

Nach Abzug der sonstigen Kosten verbleibt dann ein Überschuss/Gewinn vor Steuern von 578,3 Mio. USD.

Nachsteuergewinn: 381,7 Mio. USD = 435,1 Mio. CAD


Seit der Einlösung der Warrants am 22.März und der in Kürze abgeschlossenen Kapitalerhöhung zugunsten von Sprott sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 3,92 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem konservativen KGV von 8 ergäbe sich ein fairer Kurs der Aktie von 31,36 CAD
Wenn man das KGV der IPO der chinesischen Moly-Mine von 14 zugrunde legt, so ergibt sich ein Kurs der Aktie von 54,88 CAD.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Tries to Fight the Fed
despite analyst release and $19 Target - the market doomsayers took control
Apr. 12/07


Blue Pearl issued a news release - normally a good move to boost visibility and often the stock price but the news release the market was watching was the FMOC notes (from no friend of the market today, Ben Bernanke, head of the United States Federal Reserve). The Fed dispelled any hope for a quick line of cheaper money - that is no lowering of the interest anytime soon - to help the subprime borrowers and housing industry and the stock market).
When that Fed news hit the market retreated - all stocks - the good (like Blue Pearl), the bad (like home builders) and the ugly (OTC) - were indiscriminately sold by retail investors.

Did Blue Pearl\'s moly disappear or its prospects change - not at all - but one company can\'t fight the market malaise. What we have to do as investors is check with our reasons for buying. (for me this is the article "A Blue Pearl of Great Value" posted April 4). All conditions remain in place and so, summoning up my courage, I purchased additional shares.

I also consider that with the Sprott Moly Fund about to launch - no doubt to fanfare - more good publicity is in store, and new investors will come in. The recent activity in BLE is at values over $13.00 and these investors are (mostly) going to be holding for much more than a dollar of profit.
Text zur Anzeige gekürzt. Gesamtes Posting anzeigen...

There are risks that weigh on every company and these have to be accessed against any positive or even Polyanna views we may have for the potential rewards. To me the fact that the Company is now less in debt and continuing to produce cash of a million dollars a day gives me the acceptable risk/reward ratio that BLE will outperform the market.

Finally, I consider the alternative positions I might acquire with money from the sale of any Blue Pearl - and again I conclude this is the place to be and that I have to consider that there may be few opportunities to add to my position at any more favourable prices. Admittedly, 25 cents is not much of a dip but I appreciate that to maintain my investing discipline I have to follow my investing criteria. To succeed with the overall goal of consistently outperforming the market average you have to be strong enough to go against the crowd mentality. This may seem just the use of common sense - a good stock is a little cheaper, so buy - but common sense is highly prized because it is uncommon.

[Firsteven]

von Eifelcash


China happy with Molybdenum Picture!!!
April 14, 2007 By the end of 2006, China had seen an estimated 18 percent growth in industrial production and had no immediate plans to slow its 11 percent annual growth. Although eight percent is a rather high figure for any industrial country one must factor into the equation that China is industrializing not industrialized. Although not ideal for the rest of the world this rate will soon float down toward the rest of the worlds manufacturing companies and stabilize. In the mean time the ore called Molybdenum (or Moly) will benefit as several large projects, within China, are planned and being executed.

Infrastructure Everywhere

China’s explosive growth is no secret to the world with entire cities being built almost over night. It is the little things (that are not so little), however, that most people do not see that will continue to boost Molybdenum’s use. Power is one on the leading concerns of planners as cities and manufacturing capacity continues to grow. To supply the needed power the country is planning to rely of coal liquidifacation and gas to keep everything moving. The vast reserves of high sulfur coal will dictate the use of Molybdenum in their power plant construction projects due to Molybdenum’s characteristics in preventing corrosion.

Gas is another energy option that China is pursuing for its energy needs just as the rest of the world does the same. Molys’ use in stainless steel will help to maintain the gas pipelines integrity as the gas in question can also be rather corrosive. In either application Molybdenum’s continued use and growth is all but assured with the country’s forecasting department estimating a domestic Molybdenum growth rate of 20 percent. Put into perspective, however, this growth when factored into world demand is just 2 percent.

Demand Outstripping Supply?

To further illustrate this domestic demand one only needs to look at China’s recent implementation of an export quota system for Molybdenum. Following a reduction in exports in early 2006 the country has gone a step further in early 2007 by limiting exports to those that have exported 1,000 tones each of the past three years signifying, with other elements considered, that China is considering its internal needs for Molybdenum’s Future growth.

One of these needs is a desire not to listen to international environmental groups. Although China has listened to these groups in some instances and not in others they are not all that happy in doing so. Feeling as if they are being held to a different standard than other industrialized countries, when they were industrializing, China is bowing to some pressure but not easily. One area where they have moved a little in environmental industrialization is in the use of their smelters and refineries for Molybdenum. Temporarily idling capacity for Molybdenum has put a bit of a crimp in production of several products although one would surmise temporarily is a good word to use when considering this idling.

One way or another China is on the move toward being a world manufacturer in the new modern age. Nobody doubts that it will not stop its development for lack of any material or service. In this regard, Molybdenum is in the right place and at the right time. Where and how China moves forward is the big question. How best to take advantage with Molybdenum literally at the basic molecular level of this explosive growth is the answer.

[Firsteven]

hallo chartex,

jetzt liegst Du mit deiner Berechnung nur noch 2% unterhalb meiner.

Ich habe aber ehrlicher Weise keine Lust die Differenzen diskutieren zu wollen, da der Molypreis sowieso nicht bei 30$ im Schnitt leigen wird.

ich erwarte den Durchschnittspreis in einer Range für 2008 von 25$ bis 50$. Als Daueroptimist natürlich im Bereich > 40$.

Da wir beide den Ansatz mit 30$ gewählt haben, sollten wir eher positiv als negativ überrascht werden. Wichtig ist auch, dass der Markt den Ansatz akzeptiert, wenn demnächst die Analystenhäuser in den Bereich hineingehen werden.

Dazu helfen uns die von mir zuerst unterschätzten chinesischen Börsengägne ungemein.

Endlich sind wir vergleichbar.

Wenn eine Investor in China einen Preis mit einem KGV von 14 bezahlt, dann wird er ihn auch in Kanada bezahlen.

Daher warte ich ungeduldig auf die Erweiterung der Ressourcen.

Mein fairer Wert für unsere Aktie ist momentan der von dir errechnete KGV-8 Wert für 2008, also um die 31 CAD.

Sollten tatsächlich die Ressourcen auf einen Wert von über 2.000 Mio. IB ansteigen, dann wird der faire Wert in Richtung der oberen Begrenzung von 54 CAD wandern.

Schliesslich sind wir mit den chinesischen Firmen vergleichbar.

Bitte um sachliche Kritik,falls sich ein Denkfehler eingeschlichen hat.

therefore

[Firsteven]

TOP - therefore !!!!


hallo Schnucksche,

habe eben eine Mail von Wayne Cheveldayoff erhalten.

Habe wieder einmal die Hintergründe für die Insiderverkaäufe abgefragt und einen Vorstoss wegen des für mich deutlich zu hohen cash balance unternommen.

Eine 700 Mitarbeiter Firma benötigt keinen CASH-Bestand von 135 Mio. $, schon gar nicht, wenn man noch über 300 Mio. Schulden hat.

Ich stelle die Antwortmail ein und bitte dich dann den Sachverhalt, den ich markiere, telefonisch abzufragen. Mein Englisch erlaubt es mir leider nicht, bei einem Telefonat Sachverhalte abzufragen, die der Gegenüber nicht sagen darf, aber gerne sagen will und durch Andeutungen zu erkennen gibt.

Regarding insider sales, insiders make personal decisions when to sell.
They
are not required to disclose their reasons and I don\'t know what the
reasons
are, although I presume it is because they have such a large gain. Do
you
remember the insider selling in January? That was at about $8.40 per
share.


The cash balance you mentioned of US$135 million was before the end of
March
payments on the principal of the First Lien (which was $18.75 million)
and
payments on income taxes. We haven\'t disclosed whether an additional
debt
payment was made. Keep in mind that we have to accumulate enough cash
to
make a payment next January to the previous owner of Thompson Creek. In
the
Oct. 13, 2006 prospectus, there are details about a US$125 million
contingent payment that we must make if the price of moly is above
US$15 per
pound. If in 2007 the average price is above $25 per pound, then we
must pay
him US$100 million in early January 2008.

As for business expansion, the only announced possible expansion is the
Davidson project. A feasibility study is currently being conducted by
consultants and we are hoping that we will get the report by the end of
Q2.
And I say "hoping" because we don\'t control the timing.

In general, on all of our studies being conducted by consultants or
engineering firms, we are seeing that it is taking longer than we
expected.
This is because the mining industry is booming and the consultants have
lots
of work and that is causing delays for everyone, not just our company.
So,
while we sometimes provide timing information, as above for Davidson,
we
don\'t know for sure if the report will be ready by then. I ask that
investors understand the situation. We want all the reports to be
issued as
soon as possible. But we don\'t have control of the timing.

Regards,
Wayne Cheveldayoff

Die Erklärung für die Insiderverkäufe hatte ich so erwartet. Die Sache hatte mich eh nicht beunruhigt und die Antwort mit dem Hinweis auf die unsinnigen Januarverkäufen und den anschliessenden Kurssteigerungen ist mehr als schlüssig.

Spannend wird es aber bei der Frage dem Grund für den hohen CASH-Bestand.

the only announced possible expansion macht mich nachdenklich. Nach meiner Meinung ist hier etwas am kochen.

Kannst Du bitte einmal nachhören, ob ich mir hier nur etwas einbilde, oder ob wir hier demnächst mit einer für den Markt überraschenden Übernahmenews rechnen können, zumal er wieder einmal seine Unzufriedenheit über seine Davidson-Consultans zum Ausdruck bringt und hier auch mit einer Verschiebung der Machbarkeitstudie rechnet.

Ich kann mir nicht vorstellen, dass BluePearl jetzt schon die gesamten 100 Mio. USD für den Alteigentümer zurückstellt. Das kann man auch noch im 3. und 4. Quartal machen, wenn endgültig klar ist, dass der Moly-Preis über 25 USD bliebt.

the only announced possible expansion ist für mich die einzige logische Erklärung.

therefore

[Firsteven]

von cuba-libre:



ich weiß nicht, womit ihr euch gedanklich beschäftigt habt, während ihr (hoffentlich ebenfalls) dieses herrliche wetter genossen habt...ich selbst konnte nicht anders...mir sind einige gedanken zu unseren investment durch den sonnenverwöhnten schädel gegangen...deswegen jetzt noch mal ein paar aktuelle überlegungen zum thema übernahme(n)...ich mußte gerade schmunzeln als ich den beitrag von therefore las...meine gedanken gehen nämlich in genau diese richtung!

1) eigenes "übernommen-werden"

ich möchte zunächst eine gewagte these aufstellen, indem ich sage: ich schliesse eine kurz- bis mittelfristige übernahme von bpm aus!

ich möchte das begründen:

- wir als shareholder (im sinne von kleinaktionäre) haben kein interesse an einer übernahme. in jedem fall nicht so lange, bis eine einigermaßen faire bewertung erreicht ist!
bloß: uns fragt keiner, wir haben da (leider) überhaupt keinen einfluß drauf...

- bpm selbst und insbesondere mr. mcdonald an der spitze können ebenfalls kein interesse daran haben. gerade mr. mcd. bastelt an einer einzigartigen story (ich glaube therefore o. firsteven war es, der sinnvollerweise schon von "lebenswerk" sprach), die er sich mit sicherheit keinesfalls vor vollendung aus der hand nehmen lassen möchte.

- schauen wir dazu einmal in die vergangenheit, nämlich zu wheaton river , das unternehmen, wo mr. mcdonald bereits einmal eine ähnliche erfolgsgeschichte geschrieben hat. ich habe bisher (leider) noch nicht all zu viel dazu gefunden. was aber auffällig ist: es gab hier anscheinend lange zeit massive übernahmeversuche...insbesondere coeur d\'alene war offensichtl. einer der aspiranten...hat es letztendlich aber nicht geschafft...zumindest scheinen verschiedene derartige bemühungen über mind. ca. zwei jahre hinweg erfolglos geblieben zu sein... bis letztendlich goldcorp zum zuge gekommen ist...jedoch offensichtlich zu bedingungen, die im sinne der shareholder waren...d. h. mr. mcdonald und seine crew haben erfahrung in solchen dingen und lassen sich mit sicherheit nicht verarschen...
also: das management hat also durchaus einen gewissen einfluss!
indem es seine gesamtstrategie nämlich auf dieses szenario ausrichtet...für einen konstant hohen newsflow und für pos. überraschungen sorgt und auch ansonsten vermutl. zu maßnahmen greift, die uns verborgen bleiben werden und im hintergrund ablaufen...wie auch immer die aussehen mögen!

- der andere keyplayer, mr. sprott kann ebenfalls keinerlei interesse an einer übernahme haben!!! zum einen hat sprott bis zum kürzl. pp bereits 13 % anteile an bpm gehalten...dazu kommen mittlerweile weitere 3 mio. shares, die in den neuen moly-fond gewandert sind!
ergo: sprott möchte mit bpm als seinem basis-moly-investment selbst reüssieren und wird seinerseits alle ihm zur verfügung stehenden maßnahmen ergreifen. um eine übernahme zu verhindern.
seine devise (schon das eine o. andere mal gepostet):
Eric Sprott says there are three keys to success as an investment manager. They are, in no particular order: Performance, performance and performance.
und diese performance wird er sich sowohl bei bpm als auch bei seinem moly-fond nicht nehmen lassen...

ich hatte neulich mal ein paar gedanken zu sprott niedergelegt...füge auch das hier noch einmal ein:

das, was jetzt passiert (resp. erst noch passieren wird) ist professionellst vorbereitet u. beruht nicht nur auf spekulationen (molypreis könnte dann und dann da und da sein...z.b.)...das wird vermutl. ganz, ganz anders sein als wir uns das vorstellen können! mr. sprott ist herr über milliardenbeträge, d. h. er hat macht ohne ende ("geld regiert die welt")... er verfügt über ein netzwerk in der finanzwelt, welches (beinahe) einzigartig sein sollte (auch wenn es natürl. noch andere schwergewichte gibt)... dadurch kann er enorm viel bewegen...preise beeinflussen (in die richtige richtung )...durch geschickte strategien "dinge" verknappen...unternehmen pushen (im positivsten sinne...)...kurzum: der mann bewegt richtig geld!!! und: er weiß genau, was er macht...insofern: toller deal mr. mcd. & bpm und thompson creek, keine frage...klasse aussichten...kein thema!...gute story...viel in der hinterhand an resourccen etc...preissteigerung/nachfrage etc...alles klar...aber: mit mr. sprott im rücken??? das gibt schub ohne ende...und wie gesagt: der geht auch wege, die sich uns (normalerweise) niemals erschliessen werden...

all diese gedanken lassen mich zu dem schluss kommen:
die allianz von mr. mcdonald und mr. sprott wird eine kurz- bis mittelfristige übernahme verhinden!!!

2) aber umgekehrt: wie sieht es mit eigenen übernahmeplänen aus?

auch hier zitiere ich mich der einfachheit zunächst selbst aus einem anderen beitrag:

> andererseits könnte ich mir vorstellen, daß mr. mcdonald nicht alle eigenen pläne jetzt schon in die weltgeschichte hinausposaunt. wie wir alle wissen, schläft der mann nicht auf dem baum (ganz im gegenteil!). also wenn ich mr. mcd. wäre, würde ich selbst nicht jetzt bereits (halbwegs) konkrete ziele meiner expansionsabsichten (inkl. entspr. zeithorizonte) öffentl. machen. andersrum: könnte es evtl. ganz anders laufen als er jetzt sagt? d. h. aktive übernahme in einem ganz anderen zeithorizont und auch in eine ganz andere richtung...? ist aber nur eine spekulation....
> noch etwas: aus "wheaton-river-zeiten" soll mr. mcdonald als "liebhaber" von übernahmen gelten. wurde so ähnl. hier schon mal dargestellt. kann das vielleicht noch jemand konkretisieren?

meine inzwischen weiterführenden gedanken:

- eigene übernahme(n) würden den wert des unternehmens weiter steigern, würden ggf. zu synergieeffekten im hinblick auf schon vorhandene resourccen etc. führen und: würden den stockprice weiter treiben. gleichzeitig das beste mittel im rahmen einer gesamtstrategie, die darauf angelegt ist, das eigene übernommen werden unter allen umständen zu verhindern...

- daß ich vermute, daß solche vorhaben viel, viel eher passieren könnten, als man es erwartet und vor allem auch als mr. mcd. öffentl. geäußert hat, wurde bereits oben ausgeführt...

- ich rechne insofern damit, daß hier sehr bald etwas kommt. diese vermutung ist in den letzten tagen, je mehr ich drüber nachgedacht habe, immer mehr gereift. offenbar bin ich nicht der einzige, der sich damit mit ähnlichen gedankengängen beschäftigt hat. die ausführungen von therefore in posting #102673 gehen in dieselbe richtung und bringen zusätzlich interessante argumente für eine solche variante! inbes. der von therefore herausgearbeitete cashbestand lassen viel raum für vermutungen.

ich selbst hatte noch den gedanken, ob vielleicht über ein weiteres pp geld (von sprott!) eingesammelt werden könnte. damit würde man zwei fliegen mit einer klappe schlagen: liquidität für expansion(en) und (weitere sinnvolle) erhöhung des sprott´schen einflusses! beinahe auzuschliessen ist wohl eine finanzierung über durch eine bank, oder? schließlich liegt der fokus akt. auf entschuldung, da würde eine kreditaufnahme nicht passen...

jedenfalls: käme es tatsächlich zeitnah zu übernahmeaktivitäten, wäre das eine schöne überraschung, mit der wir und andere (zum jetzigen zeitpunkt) nicht unbedingt rechnen...aber genau das wäre vermutl. der ansatz! warten wir es ab...

hinweis: alles nur meine meinung...und basierend selbstverständl. - abgesehen von einigen fakten, aussagen und zitaten - ausschl. auf spekulationen. aber das ist ja das reizvolle daran...

[Firsteven]

super Posting von Schnucksche!!

Hallo therefore,

mit Interesse habe ich die Diskussionen vom laufenden Tag vorhin nachgelesen. Diese Diskussion über Übernahmen oder den umgekehrten Fall hatten wir ja letztes Wochenende bereits sehr ausführlich geführt.

Ich will vorab aus einer heute mittag erhaltenen mail von Wayne Einiges hier einstellen. Offensichtlich hatten wir teilweise ähnliche Fragen gestellt. So ergibt sich dann ggf. ein Gesamtbild:


1)
Antwort auf die Frage nach den Insider sales


WC: Yes, I share your opinion that it is only because of such a large gain in a short period of time. Those at Blue Pearl who have stock options are not required to say why they are selling, so I really don´t know for sure.


2)
Frage nach dem cash balance

WC: The $135 cash balance was before regular payment on the First Lien and payment of income taxes at end of March. We have not disclosed anything about an additional payment of principal, except that when the 3 million private placement closes, we will make an additional payment of $36 million. And yes, if the moly price averages above $25 per pound for 2007, we must pay $100 million to the previous owner (as part of the total $125 million contingent payment we disclosed in the Oct. 13, 2006 prospectus.) So, we may want to keep some cash balances for that payment.

3)
Frage nach der Zukunft von BPM oder Thomson Creek Metals, Frage nach evtl. Übernahmen in 2007 und der Kreditrückzahlung


W.C.: We have not made any announcement about a specific purchase. We have said we may be interested in buying an operating mine, perhaps even one that produces copper as well as moly, but nothing has been said more than that. Keep in mind that we need $100 million likely to pay the previous owner in 2008 and also that we want to bring Davidson into production and assuming a positive feasibility study and we receive an environmental permit (early 2008), then we may need cash to invest in that. We may choose to hold on to cash for that purpose rather than make additional principal payments on the second lien. No decisions have been made or announced.


Anmerkung:
Demzufolge wäre einmal mehr klargestellt, dass die Auffassung, dass Davidson als "Herzstück" auf alle Fälle in Produktion gebracht werden soll.


4)
Frage nach den Verzögerungen bei der FS Davidson und Frage nach dem Zeitpunkt der Updates Endako und TC


WC: On both questions, we are not in control of the timing. It is true that the consultants have lots of work and this is causing delays in their reports to many companies, not just to Blue Pearl. We are hoping and expecting to get the Endako resource estimates in April but, as I said, we do not have control and if the consultants are slow, we just have to wait. Given our experience so far, I am very reluctant to give specific timing on any reports because we just don’t know for sure.

5)
Frage, ob BPM über die genaue Zahl der Shares des Sprott Fund und der aktuellen Beteiligung von Sprott an BPM Auskunft geben kann:


WC: At the time of the Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corporation prospectus (dated March 1, I think, and available at www.sedar.com, the Sprott Moly fund has a small number of Blue Pearl shares. When our private placement closes, it will have 3 million more. We are not aware of any other buying or plans to buy by Sprott in the open market. It would not be something that they would tell us.

As for Sprott Asset Management´s total number of shares held, I recall that Sprott filed a report last July saying it had about 12% of Blue Pearl common shares outstanding, and my understanding is that they maintained this percentage approximately during the large issue of shares last October. I would assume they also received warrants during that issue. I don´t know if they have bought more shares since or sold them.

Regards
Wayne



Ich möchte nochmals betonen, dass ich der festen Überzeugung bin und dies auch aus diversen Aussagen der Verantwortlichen ableite, dass die Rückzahlung des Kredits die höchste Priorität hat.

Gleichzeitig kann man aus den Formulierungen von Wayne erkennen, dass man bei BPM auf die sichere Seite gehen will und bereits jetzt an die Zahlungen in 2008 an die Alteigentümer sowie an die Ausgaben für die Aufnahme der Produktion in Davidson denkt, sozusagen Rücklagen bildet. Grundsätzlich halte ich dies für einen nicht zu kritisierenden Vorgang, der von Weitsicht und Verantwortung zeugt.

Ich gehe persönlich davon aus, dass beim derzeitigen Umfeld die Unterbewertung von Blue Pearl (zum Glück für uns Investoren) schneller asl erwartet beseitigt werden wird. Eine Übernahme durch einen anderen Konzern wird demzufolge immer teurer und würde bereits bei heutigen Kursen sicherlich nicht unter 20 $ je Aktie erfolgen können. Insoweit bleibt anzuwarten, bis die Zahlen des 1. Quartals auf dem Tisch liegen und die Ressourcenschätzungen bzw. Updates ein ganzes Bild zulassen.

Ich bin zuversichtlich, dass wir bis dahin noch einige Prozente hinter uns gelassen haben, ohne dies zu konkretisieren.

Zur Frage der Übernahme eines Produzenten im Bereich Moly / Kupfer würden sich hier natürlich einige im näheren Umfeld anbieten.

Bei Wheaton River hat man anschaulich erkennen können, welche Strategie McDonald verfolgt. Ob dies hier auch der Fall sein wird, werden wir sehen.

Dennoch bin ich mir sicher, dass die Kreditrückzahlung und die Liquiditätserhaltung, nicht zuletzt im Hinblick auf weitere Kosten Anfang 2008, ein ganz wesentlicher Faktor in den Überlegungen des Managements sind.

Sollte sich tatsächlich abzeichnen, dass weitere Sondertilgungen erfolgen (Wayne hält sich hier ja etwas geschlossen), werden dann weitere Überlegungen in die Tat umgesetzt.

Tatsache ist sicherlich, dass man sich bei BPM Gedanken um künftige Strukturen und Expansionsmöglichkeiten macht, diese werden wir aber erst wirklich erfahren, wenn man die Tücher fast als trocken bezeichnen kann. Man kann nun über alles spekulieren, aber klar dürfte nach den maisl von BPM und den getroffenen Aussagen sein, dass die selbst gemachten Vorgaben Schritt für Schritt abgearbeitet werden.

schnucksche

[Firsteven]

Nachdem das Thema Insiderverkäufe heute nochmals zus Sprache kam, und ich einige zusätzliche Informationen dazu gefunden habe, möchte ich nochmals darauf eingehen.

Zur Erinnerung: Derek Price hat Ende März / Anfang April 158.600 Aktien verkauft und 100.000 Aktien gekauft durch Ausübung von Optionen (zu 0,60 CAD). Kerry John Knoll hat 100.000 Aktien verkauft.

Im Management Information Circular (www.sedar.com) vom 13.4.2007 habe ich erstmals Zahlen gefunden über die Entlohnung des BPM-Management.
So hat Derek Price (Vize-Präsident) im Jahr 2006 52.329 US-$ Gehalt bekommen und 214.525 US-$ Bonuszahlung. Dies sind umgerechnet etwa 200.000 Euro (in 2005 waren es hingegen insgesamt nur 30.884 $ bzw. 23.000 Euro).
Ein nettes Sümmchen - ich wäre froh, wenn ich das jedes Jahr ausgeben könnte - leider gehen noch die Steuern ab usw.

Andererseits ist diese Entlohnung, selbst nach deutschen Masstäben, für den Vizepräsidenten eines Unternehmens wie Blue Pearl lachhaft niedrig. Die Lücke zu einer üblichen Entlohnung wird geschlossen, indem die Mitglieder des Management (und auch ein Teil des restlichen Belegschaft) Aktien-Optionen erhalten. Steigt der Kurs der Aktie, so erhöht sich der Wert dieser Optionen und dient als Ausgleich zu einer üblichen Entlohnung.

Derek Price hat 2006 z.B. 250.000 Optionen erhalten und hatte zum Jahreswechsel 445.000 Optionen in Besitz. Während des Jahres wurden 100.000 Optionen ausgeübt und die zugehörigen Aktien erworben.

Für mich ist es jedenfalls eine absolut selbstverständliche und nachvollziehbare Sache, dass Price eine größere Zahl von Aktien an der Börse verkauft hat, zumal er zum Jahreswechsel noch 445.000 Optionen in Besitz hatte (Seite 6 des Textes) und, wie gesagt, 100.000 dieser verkauften Aktien durch Ausübung von Optionen (zu 0,60 CAD) ersetzt hat.

Ich kenne nun die finanziellen Verhältnisse von Price nicht. Ich stelle mir nur vor, dass ich zu meinem Bankberater gehe (im realen Leben habe ich keinen, da ich meine Wertpapiergeschäfte lieber selbst in die Hand nehme) und ihm erzähle, ich habe 445.000 Optionen im Wert von rund 2,5 Mio $ (Stand zum Jahreswechsel, inzwischen wahrscheinlich etwa 3,5 Mio $) und womöglich noch einmal 158.600 Aktien (möglicherweise auch mehr) im Wert von heute weiteren 2,4 Mio $. Und das alles von dem Unternehmen, bei welchem ich angestellt bin.
Mein Bankberater würde wohl zuerst einmal in Ohnmacht fallen. Nachdem ich ihn mit einem Eimer kalten Wassers wieder ins reale Leben zurückgeholt hätte , würde er mir eine gewaltige Standpauke halten: Ob ich denn total bescheuert sei, so viel Geld in ein einziges Unternehmen zu investieren, ob ich denn jemals schon über das Risiko dieser Klumpenbildung nachgedacht hätte (mangelnde Diversifizierung im Depot), ob ich mir denn vorstellen könnte, was passiert, wenn die Firma abbrennt (mein Bankberater hat noch nie etwas von Moly gehört, sonst wüsste er, dass Moly nicht brennen kann), es wäre nicht nur mein ganzes Geld flöten, sondern auch gleich noch mein Arbeitsplatz und damit meine Einkünfte zum Lebensunterhalt. Ob ich jetzt sofort den Verkaufsauftrag geben würde über mindestend 2/3 der Wertpapiere (und dafür den von der Bank aufgelegten Rentenfond mit 5-prozentiger Verzinsung kaufen würde), oder ob er lieber die netten Herren in weisen Kitteln verständigen sollte, diejenigen, welche diese netten weisen Pullover mitbringen, bei denen die Ärmel Schnüre haben zu festbinden. Als zurechnungsfähig könne er mich sowieso nicht bezeichnen, wenn ich solche unüberschaubare Risiken eingehen würde, mein ganzes Vermögen in eine einzige Aktie tzzztzztzztzztzzzz ... das gibt\'s ja wohl nicht....

Also, vielleicht war Derek Price ja wirklich bei seinem Bankberater, oder wahrscheinlich ist er selbst so schlau (er arbeitet schließlich im BPM-Management, da gibt es nur gute Leute ), jedenfalls ich kann es nur als vernünftig bezeichnen, bei so einer großen Zahl von Wertpapieren immer wieder einen Teil zu verkaufen und anderweitig anzulegen. So gut kann das Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis bei einer einzigen Aktie gar nicht sein, dass ich fast 6 Mio $ in nur dieser Aktie im Depot haben möchte.

So, ich habe diesen Abschnitt ganz bewusst mit ein wenig Humor (hoffe ich) dargestellt. Man sollte Börse nicht immer nur von der ernstesten Seite sehen, auch wenn es für den einen oder anderen um viel Geld geht.

Achja, Knoll hat 2006 weniger als 150.000 $ verdient, da er nicht in der List der Leute mit höherem Verdienst zu finden ist. Für ihn gilt also in ähnlicher Weise das über Price gesagte.

Nun eine gute Nacht und morgen wieder einen wunderschönen, grünen, Sonnentag.

chartex

[Firsteven]

Monday view: Moly 'the wonder metal' may provide lining for pension
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:41am BST 16/04/2007



For those who missed this year's uranium and nickel boom, there is still molybdenum. Scarce, hard to substitute, and subject to new export curbs in China, the silvery metal has freak resistance to heat, cold, and corrosion. Hedge funds view it as a leveraged play on the next looming energy crunch.

Plain "moly" to mining men, the metal gives Canary Wharf that shifting glow of blues, whites and reds as the day changes, and prevents London pollution and salt sea breezes wrecking the sheen.

It is the emerging "wonder metal" of the oil, gas, nuclear, coal, and desalination industries, needed for catalysts to remove sulphur.

advertisementIf you think the world is slowly running out of resources, it may make sense to pack a little moly into your pension fund - always bearing in mind the miners' maxim that prices goes "up and down like a bride's nightie".

China is the world's top moly producer, with the largest ore reserves, but China - ironically - is at the mercy of red hot people's power.

In May 2005, a small peasant army in the arid hills of Hubei took the law into their own hands after metal poisoning had blackened the waters of the Chaoshui river, and killed the fish. They smashed 200 molybdenum mines in one day.

It was the start of a mass revolt against intruding miners across north-eastern China, a rural version of the now ubiquitous urban protests on the coast that so frighten the Communist Party.

Beijing clamped down on the polluters - mostly small operations with backyard smelters. Separately, the entire mining district of Huludao was to calm popular fury after a series of fatal accidents. Two years on, mines in four provinces are still mothballed. The country's share of global moly output has fallen from 29pc to 17pc.

Since China needs mountains of the stuff for its own fast-growing steel industry, it is now resorting to export quotas. Beijing expects to ship 10pc less abroad in 2007. Meanwhile, global demand continues to grow at 6pc a year.

The global mining giants - Phelps Dodge, Codelco and Rio Tinto - have tried to plug the gap, switching crews from copper to moly after prices for molybdenum oxide vaulted from $5 a pound to the current level near $29 a pound.

But this game cannot continue for long. After a year or two, it upsets the structure of the mines.

Despite all efforts, Codelco's moly output in Chile fell 15pc in 2006 and is expected to fall a further 7.8pc in 2007.

This is the sort of supply crunch that has commodity funds salivating, and why the share price of Australia's Moly Mines has leapt fourfold since February on the Australian and Toronto exchanges.

The LME plans to trade moly later this year. Canada's Sprott Asset Management is introducing a moly ETF fund but, for now, most investors must stick to the mining shares.

Derek Fisher, Moly Mines's chief executive, certainly looked like the cat who ate the cream when we met in London recently.

His company is the biggest pure moly play coming on-stream over the next two years, with 470m tonnes of open-pit ore in Western Australia.

Mr Fisher's pitch is that the entire global infrastructure of energy pipelines is rotten, and needs replacing: with a 0.8pc moly content - lesser alloys crack and pit too easily.

"We have identified over 100,000 kilometres of new pipelines on the drawing board: in the Baltics, Russia, China, and the TransCanada pipeline," he said.

Washington is planning tougher rules after a corroded BP pipeline ruptured in Alaska, flooding the tundra with crude.

As for pipelines running through seawater, all succumb to salt corrosion without a high mix of moly.

All those desalination plants being built in Arabia to conjure lush green cities out of the coastal sands require 6pc moly-alloys in the piping.

The six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are alone investing $100bn in desalination plants over the next decade.

Ineluctably, the oil industry is switching to ever lower grades of crude - or bituminous tar sands of Canada - with a higher sulphur content needing moly catalysts.

Then there is the coming fleet of "moly ships" to transport liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and Russia's Sakhalin fields at a temperature of minus 116 degrees, too cold for brittle steel.

"We know of some 200 LNG tankers on order," said Mr Fisher.

Ever counting, he said governments were mulling 215 nuclear reactors, led by India, Japan, China, Russia, and Korea. Each need 7pc moly in the core reactors, which reach 2,700 degrees.

China is spending $15bn on plants to liquefy coal, and some 800 plants worldwide need flue gas scrubbers to extract sulphur. Both technologies use moly catalysts.

"The stars are aligning," said Mr Fisher.

If you look at a 40-year moly chart, you will see that prices rose 1,200pc from 1974 to 1980 before crashing almost all the way back down again in 18 months.

It is natural to suspect the same brutal denouement this time, and soonish.

But when I pressed BHP Billiton's chief, Chip Goodyear, on the risks for metals posed by a US recession, he retorted: "China and India change everything. You don't add two billion people to the world economy every year."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/…

[beautifulmind]

Both Molybdenum and Uranium Vital for Nuclear Reactors
Wednesday April 11, 7:18 am ET

James Finch submits: Molybdenum plays a more vital role in the global nuclear renaissance than you might suspect. Without the silvery white metal, the world’s energy infrastructure would somewhat suffer. But, nuclear power plants would be set back at least two decades. The new high performance stainless steels [HPSS] contain as much as 7.5 percent molybdenum and can add more than three times the life to the world’s aging nuclear fleet condenser tubes.

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During the early construction of nuclear power plants, steam condensers relied upon copper base alloys – brass and copper nickel – for heat transfer capabilities. These alloys have high coefficients of thermal conductivity required in steam generation to power nuclear reactor turbines. But copper-alloyed tubes were being replaced too quickly – with an average life of eight years – because of sulphide pitting. Hardest hit were those reactors using polluted seawater to cool their reactors.

Over the past 30 years ago, nuclear utilities slowly began turning to the super austenitic stainless steels as one way to make their nuclear reactors last longer. The addition of molybdenum, initially starting with percentage of less than four percent, helped increase the thermal conductivity lacking in nickel, iron or steel. At nuclear stations which replaced the copper alloys with HPSS condenser tubes, 57 percent rated the thermal performance good and all but one rated it normal. Molybdenum had helped overcome the thermal hurdle.

A large number of the 190 nuclear reactors, which now utilize HPSS condenser tubes, reported an average life in excess of 18 years. The longest stainless steel condenser installation has remained in service more than 26 years, according to a study done several years ago. According to a report published in 2000, more than 100 million feet of super-alloy stainless steel tubes have replaced the older, copper-alloy tubing.

Condensers are large heat exchangers used in nuclear power plants. Condensers have thousands of tubes horizontally mounted to condense and recover the steam passing through turbines. Each low-pressure turbine generally has a condenser, which also maintains a vacuum to optimize the turbine’s efficiency.

Water fouling deposits were cited as a major problem at many reactors, especially with condenser tubes where seawater or high-chloride brackish water was the coolant. Pitting corrosion, tube sheet crevice corrosion and galvanic corrosion put the tubes at risk for leakage. Plugging, mud, or detritus accumulating in condenser tubes reduce a power plant’s efficiency.

Utilities use cleaning systems with small, abrasive sponge-like balls to keep the tubes clean and test for tube defectives with probing devices. Tube thinning and corrosion create the opportunity for tube leakage. This can not be tolerated because chemicals such as sodium and chlorides find their way into the reactor vessel or steam generator.

Upgrading the steam condenser tubing to stainless steel also plays a vital role in the ‘power uprate’ program utilities have used to increase generating capacity for existing reactors as we recently discussed . The more advanced uprate program could add up to 20-percent capacity to existing U.S. nuclear reactors.

There are several HPSS manufacturers for nuclear reactor condensers. The most prominent in the nuclear sector include Pennsylvania-based ATI Allegheny Ludlum and Finland’s Outokumpu. Each offers austenitic steels with chromium and nickel composition of between 20 and 25 percent for each alloy and a range of 6.2 to 7.5 percent molybdenum.

In a paper presented by Jan Olsson of Avesta Sheffield (before the company was acquired by Outokumpu), he highlighted the results of tests performed on the new super-austenitic stainless steel, 654 SMO®. Metals comprising this brand include 25-percent chromium, 22-percent nickel and 7.5-percent molybdenum. To increase pitting resistance, the manufacturers added up to 0.5-percent nitrogen and three-percent manganese (for make the nitrogen more soluble).

As with all pioneering developments – and remember that R & D breakthroughs have taken place over a two-decade-plus period, manufacturers have re-designed their metallurgical composition to find the most encouraging percentages of nickel, chromium, molybdenum and nitrogen. The earlier stainless steels relied on higher nickel content and lesser percentages of chromium and molybdenum.

At first, conventional austenitic grades, such as 316L, or high chromium-ferritic grades, were utilized. Pitting struck down widespread use of the 316L series and was replaced by higher alloy steels. For example, others, such as the 254 SMO® stainless steel, began aggressively replacing the copper alloy tubes and in some cases the 316L series. The 254 is comprised of 20-percent chromium, 18-percent nickel, 6.2-percent molybdenum and 0.20-percent nitrogen. It has also offered a high level of corrosion resistance at desalination plants without becoming cost-prohibitive.

The most significant breakthrough came after various stainless steels were tested at Scandinavian coastal reactors. In the Avesta paper, the failures of each lesser austenitic grade were checked off. Significant deficiencies included insufficient stress corrosion cracking resistance and resistance to natural seawater. Even titanium tubing was used as an interim measure because it increased total heat transfer by 17 percent, but the metal failed to stand up to high velocity steam and suffered ‘water droplet erosion.’

According to the study, “The only alloy fully resistant to all test conditions was 654 SMO®.” The results at nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden, along the Baltic Sea, were astonishing! Four important conclusions about this super alloy were reached after the testing.

# Its corrosion resistance could cope with the hostile environments existing inside condenser tubes of desalination plants and power plants.
# Its corrosion resistance was good enough to cop with many other hostile brine and seawater environments.
# Its erosion resistance was advantageous where it was exposed to high velocity streams.
# There was no concern about its heat transfer characteristics.

Nuclear Consumption of Molybdenu

About 48 nuclear reactors are reportedly scheduled for construction by 2013. It may be possible that up to 100 could be constructed by 2020, depending upon political and financial climates. The largest number proceeding through the proposed, planned or construction phases will be located along coastal areas to service the most populated areas. The greatest numbers of new constructions are expected from China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Japan (and possibly the United States).

Existing reactors along coastal areas in Asian countries presently breaks down as follows: Japan (57), South Korea (26), China and Taiwan (19) and India (11). Because these are the most prone to seawater or brackish corrosion, they are also the likely candidates for upgrading existing condenser tubing to high alloy stainless steel. And their new reactors are likely going to be constructed along their coasts, requiring the super austenitic grades. As an aside, of the previously mentioned 190 nuclear power plants which had replaced their condensers with HPSS, 45 percent used fresh water as coolant. Those plants chose the high alloy steel as a ‘fail-safe’ measure to prevent interrupted service or a potential reactor incident.

The United Nations estimates that two-thirds of the planet’s population will be living with water stress by 2025. Global freshwater scarcity may demand the use of brackish or seawater as nuclear reactor coolant. To prevent the accompanying corrosion, the higher-percentage molybdenum alloy, specifically the 654 SMO®, could emerge as the condenser tubing material of choice. Either the 254 SMO® or the 654 would be utilized in desalination plants required to overcome water shortages in the hardest hit areas: North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia.

Typically, nuclear power plant condenser tubing requires approximately 520,000 feet of stainless steel. According to the International Molybdenum Association [IMOA], larger reactors could utilize up to one million feet of stainless steel. With the higher molybdenum grades found in the super alloys, new nuclear reactors could require tens of thousands of metric tons of molybdenum.

By comparison, nuclear waste containers proposed for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository were forecast to consume about 15,000 metric tons of moly. While this project may or may not proceed as planned to the construction phase, the Nuclear Energy Institute [NEI] has proposed regionalized storage of spent fuel.

Should comparably designed storage canisters be utilized to ‘temporarily’ contain the nuclear waste, it is likely molybdenum will play a key role. According to the U.S. Government’s Energy Citation Database, as published by the Department of Energy’s Office of Scientific and Technical Information, “Alloys with combined chromium plus molybdenum contents greater than 30 percent were the most resistant to general and local attack.” This was the conclusion reached after corrosion scouring tests were performed on stainless steel and nickel-based alloys to immobilize high-level, radioactive waste.

Another aspect where high-percentage molybdenum stainless steel would double up is with the expansion of nuclear desalination plants. In the past we have discussed the rise of nuclear desalination across those coastal areas, requiring far more freshwater than can possibly be transported through other means. The World Nuclear Association [WNA] has reported of numerous such desalination projects in progress.

From nearly every energy project – oil, gas, coal and nuclear, and for water, molybdenum demand will continue increasing. Super austenitic grades demand a higher moly content to combat corrosion and provide reliability of service. Of course, there will be substitution in the face of future supply shortfalls. In some instances, there are reports the Russians have substituted vanadium for molybdenum in some of their oil and gas pipelines to conserve on moly consumption. ATI Allegheny Ludlum has argued for the substitution of two-percent manganese for every percent of nickel, but in the lower grade austenitic groups which do not demand the corrosion resistance of energy projects.

While reviewing the anticipated new projects from the molybdenum mining sector, we foresee the high probability of supply inadequacy. Aside from China Moly’s Sandaozhuang molybdenum mine, which the company hopes could produce 28,000 tonnes of molybdenum concentrate this year and perhaps grow by another 17 percent the following year, there is a paucity of new molybdenum projects coming fully online before 2009.

Based upon China’s voracious appetite for molybdenum – one research firm estimated compounded annual growth rate over the previous five years at 17 percent, whatever excess moly production comes from China Moly’s mining efforts could very well be domestically consumed.

Future North American molybdenum producers may need to ramp up their projects to meet the growing demand. During 2006, demand grew above the historical norm of four percent; most of the consumption came from China. This is unlikely to stagnate or decrease, and could interfere with North American and European consumption of molybdenum.

Only one company is scheduled to commence molybdenum mining in 2007, Roca Mines. Because the company is limited to a small-mining permit, anticipated production could not exceed three million pounds. By late 2008, or early 2009, Adanac Molybdenum hopes to commence its start-up efforts to reach eight-figure moly production. Later, Blue Pearl Mining hopes to commence high-grade molybdenum mining at the Davidson deposit in British Columbia. Around this time, the Climax molybdenum mine could re-open and begin production in Colorado. Moly Mines hopes to begin production at the company’s Spinifex project. Possibly, before the decade ends, Idaho General might commence operations in Nevada. Perhaps before those 48 nuclear reactors come online, US Energy’s moly deposit may be mined in Colorado.

Many of these projects are subject to environmental permitting and/or financing, putting any material amount of forecasted supply in jeopardy. And this comes at a time when some experts believe byproduct molybdenum production at copper mines could be constrained. There are many conditional requirements which do not necessarily guarantee a reliable supply from the new breed of primary moly producers. We have witnessed comparable obstacles in the uranium sector, which has since been accompanied by a hyperbolic price rally in this metal.

There could come a time in the molybdenum sector when the silvery white metal could mimic such a breakout scenario. Nearly three years ago, we featured a forecast of US$100/pound uranium. No one believed that prediction at the time. On Friday, TradeTech announced a spot price of US$113/pound.

[schnucksche]

Demand from China Continues to be Strong, says Rio Tinto
By Todd Flagg
13 Apr 2007 at 12:38 PM

Representatives from Rio Tinto Group [NYSE: RTP], the world's third- largest mining company, expect China's demand from metals and minerals to remain strong this year and continue to keep commodity prices above historical levels.

"There is strong momentum in most Asian economies which represent big markets for us," Chief Executive Officer Leigh Clifford said today at a shareholder meeting in London.

To meet rising demand, London-based Rio Tinto will increase annual iron-ore production capacity in Western Australia to 220 million metric tons a year by 2009, almost twice capacity in 2003. A further increase beyond 220 million tons is planned, Clifford said.

Iron-ore prices have advanced for five consecutive years as mining companies failed to expand output fast enough to meet demand from steelmaking nations such as China. BHP Billiton Ltd., Anglo American Plc and Rio, the world's three largest miners ranked by sales, will probably spend more than $10 billion through 2015 on iron-ore projects, Credit Suisse Group estimated in February.

[sloopjohn]

http://www.bluepearl.ca/s/AnnualReport.asp

sehr empfehlenswert; auch für alle, die die Fakten schon weitgehend kennen sollten - was mich hier zusätzlich verblüfft, ist die geniale optische Darstellung. Das Auge isst ja bekanntlich auch beim coolsten Investor mit. I.d.S.: Mahlzeit

sloop

[sloopjohn]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.842.018 von sloopjohn am 16.04.07 18:50:58

sorry der vorherige link funzt nicht, also nochmal:

http://www.bluepearl.ca/s/AnnualReport.asp

[Firsteven]

Sprott Molybdenum closes $189-million IPO


2007-04-16 10:29 ET - News Release

An anonymous director reports

SPROTT MOLYBDENUM PARTICIPATION CORPORATION CLOSES INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING

Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. has closed its initial public offering. An total of 37.8 million units (including units issuable on the exercise of the overallotment option) were sold at $5 per unit, for total gross proceeds of $189-million. Each unit consists of one common share in the capital of the corporation and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to acquire, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances, one common share of the corporation at a price of $7.50 until April 16, 2009. The common shares and warrants are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol MLY and MLY.WT, respectively.

The syndicate of agents was led by GMP Securities LP and included Canaccord Capital Corp., Cormark Securities Inc., Fort House Inc., TD Securities Inc. and Dundee Securities Corp.

The corporation and Sprott Asset Management Inc. have entered into a management services agreement pursuant to which Sprott Asset has agreed to manage the corporation\'s activities, including arranging for, and completing for and on behalf of the corporation any purchase and sale of molybdenum assets. The corporation will use substantially all of the net proceeds of the offering to acquire securities of private and public companies that explore for, mine and/or process molybdenum and to acquire physical molybdenum

[Firsteven]

von therefore:

Die Kanadier haben unsere Berechnungen vom Wochenende verstanden.

Die Unterbewertung wird so langsam kleiner. Aber bis zum ersten Kursziel von Eric Sprott und dem momentanen fairen Wert der Aktie müssen die noch so um die 11 CAD zulegen.

Dann kommen noch die neuen Ressourcen und dann sind wir mit den chinesischen Firmen in Reichweite und KGV vergleichbar.

Bei einem Molypreis von 30 USD:

BluePearl KGV für 2008 von ca. 4

Chinesische Firmen KGV für 2008 = 14

Die Reichweiten werden nach den ressourcenupdates annähernd gleich sein.

Was muss jetzt eigentlich mit dem Kurs passieren?

und scheinbar will uns zusätzlich noch jemand übernehmen.

Wie ich schon sagte: In einem solchen Umfeld muss eine Aktie nicht konsolidieren.

therefore

[Firsteven]

APRIL 16, 2007 - 17:01 ET Show Text
Show Financial Table(s)
Show All


Blue Pearl Announces a New Measured and Indicated Resource of 464 Million Pounds of Contained Molybdenum at Endako Mine

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 16, 2007) - Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE)(TSX:BLE.WT.A)(FRANKFURT:A6R), the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, today announced an updated measured and indicated molybdenum resource estimate for its producing Endako Mine near Fraser Lake, British Columbia. The updated resource estimate was calculated by the Vancouver office of Wardrop Engineering Inc. to the specifications of National Instrument 43-101 and in accordance with the CIM Standards. The effective date of the new estimate is April 15, 2007.

"The new resource estimate is the first step in our program of updating resource and reserve estimates at the Endako and Thompson Creek mines where such updates had not been a priority when the mines were privately owned," said Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman. "We plan to release additional resource and ultimately reserve estimates as they become available during 2007 from the consulting firms that are producing them.

"The Endako Mine currently processes approximately 10 million tonnes of ore per year and its existing mine plan extends to 2013. However, the new resource estimate indicates there is the potential to extend the mine life. The calculation of mine life along with a reserve estimate will be part of the next stage of work by Wardrop," Mr. McDonald stated.

The Endako Mine, which has produced molybdenum for more than 40 years, is operated as a joint venture with Blue Pearl having a 75% interest and Japan-based Sojitz Corporation having a 25% interest.

At a cut-off grade of 0.02% molybdenum (Mo), Wardrop estimates measured and indicated Mo resources at the Endako Mine of 492 million tonnes with an average grade of 0.043% Mo and contained Mo of 464 million pounds (75% of which are to Blue Pearl's account). Measured resources are 138 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.05% Mo and indicated resources are 354 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.04% Mo. In addition, the property contains inferred resources of 76 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.033% Mo.



------------------------------------------------------------------------Class Cut-off Mo% Tonnes Mo % Contained Mo lb------------------------------------------------------------------------Measured greater than 0.02 138,000,000 0.050 152,200,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Indicated greater than 0.02 354,100,000 0.040 311,800,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Measured + Indicated greater than 0.02 492,100,000 0.043 463,900,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Inferred greater than 0.02 76,200,000 0.033 56,200,000------------------------------------------------------------------------




At a cut-off grade of 0.03% Mo, Wardrop estimates measured and indicated Mo resources at the Endako Mine of 331 million tonnes with an average grade of 0.051% Mo and contained Mo of 375 million pounds (75% of which are to Blue Pearl's account). Measured resources are 108 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.057% Mo and indicated resources are 223 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.049% Mo. Inferred resources are 36 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.043% Mo.



------------------------------------------------------------------------Class Cut-off Mo% Tonnes Mo % Contained Mo lb------------------------------------------------------------------------Measured greater than 0.03 108,000,000 0.057 135,500,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Indicated greater than 0.03 223,200,000 0.049 239,300,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Measured + Indicated greater than 0.03 331,200,000 0.051 374,800,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Inferred greater than 0.03 36,300,000 0.043 34,300,000------------------------------------------------------------------------




At a cut-off grade of 0.04% molybdenum (Mo), Wardrop estimates measured and indicated Mo resources at the Endako Mine of 211 million tonnes with an average grade of 0.061% Mo and contained Mo of 283 million pounds (75% of which are to Blue Pearl's account). Measured resources are 78 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.065% Mo and indicated resources are 133 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.058% Mo. Inferred resources are 16 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.053% Mo.



------------------------------------------------------------------------Class Cut-off Mo% Tonnes Mo % Contained Mo lb------------------------------------------------------------------------Measured greater than 0.04 78,200,000 0.065 112,500,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Indicated greater than 0.04 132,800,000 0.058 170,300,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Measured + Indicated greater than 0.04 211,000,000 0.061 282,800,000------------------------------------------------------------------------Inferred greater than 0.04 16,200,000 0.053 19,100,000------------------------------------------------------------------------




The new mineral resource estimates at the Endako Mine were estimated by Greg Mosher, P.Geo., of Wardrop Engineering Inc., a qualified person as defined in National Instrument 43-101, using industry standard three-dimensional block modeling software with Mo grades estimated using inverse distance weighted to the second power. Blocks that were within one bench height of the current pit bottom were classified as measured mineral resource, blocks that contained at least 8 composites within 100 feet were classified as indicated mineral resource and all other interpolated blocks were classified as inferred mineral resource. Mr. Mosher has reviewed and consented to the disclosure of resource information in this news release.

A previous resource estimate was provided by Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. (SWRPA) in a Technical Report on the Endako Mine filed at SEDAR (www.sedar.com) on September 8, 2006. The SWRPA estimate was prepared by Richard E. Routledge, M.Sc., Applied, P.Geo., Consulting Geologist with SWRPA, and John T. Postle, P.Eng., Consulting Mining Engineer with SWRPA, who are qualified persons under National Instrument 43-101. Using a cut-off grade of 0.04% Mo, SWRPA estimated indicated resources at the Endako Mine of 51.8 million tonnes at an average Mo grade of 0.07% and contained Mo of 80.4 million pounds as of September 30, 2005. SWRPA's estimate, which included only in-pit resources, is not strictly comparable with the Wardrop estimate announced today because the Wardrop estimate represents a broader estimation that includes additional diamond drilling data from areas surrounding the current Endako, East Denak and West Denak pits as well as block modeled resources to depth below the pits.

Wardrop will now proceed with an estimation of mineral reserves and detailed pit design as part of a new mine plan at Endako, incorporating updated operating costs and a long-term molybdenum price assumption of US$10 per pound. The previous reserves estimates and existing mine plan extending to 2013 assumed a long-term molybdenum price of US$3.50 per pound.

As part of its review, Wardrop is examining the feasibility of constructing a super-pit, unifying the three existing pits into a large single pit, and of increasing mine production to 50,000 tonnes per day from approximately 30,000 tonnes per day, with a proportionate increase in roasting capacity.

In 2007, Blue Pearl estimates that the Endako Mine, which includes a mill and roasting facility, will produce 11.3 million pounds of molybdenum (8.5 million pounds to Blue Pearl's account). In 2008, the Company expects production to increase to 13.3 million pounds of molybdenum (10 million pounds to Blue Pearl's account).

About Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.

Blue Pearl is the world's fifth-largest molybdenum producer. In October 2006, the Company purchased the Thompson Creek open-pit molybdenum mine and mill in Idaho, a 75% share of the Endako open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility in northern British Columbia, and a metallurgical roasting facility in Langeloth, Pennsylvania. Blue Pearl is also developing the Davidson high-grade underground molybdenum project near Smithers, B.C. The Company has more than 700 employees. Its head office is in Toronto, Ontario. It also has executive offices in Denver, Colorado (including sales and marketing) and Vancouver, British Columbia. More information is available at www.bluepearl.ca.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains "forward-looking information" which may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the future financial or operating performance of Blue Pearl, its subsidiaries and its projects, the future price of molybdenum, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realization of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, costs of production, capital, operating and exploration expenditures, costs and timing of the development of new deposits, costs and timing of future exploration, requirements for additional capital, government regulation of mining operations, environmental risks, reclamation expenses, title disputes or claims and limitations of insurance coverage. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates", or "believes" or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Blue Pearl and/or its subsidiaries to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others, general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; the anticipated benefits of the acquisition not occurring in the expected time frame or at all; the actual results of current exploration activities; actual results of reclamation activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future prices of molybdenum; possible variations of ore grade or recovery rates; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion of development or construction activities, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled "Risk Factors" in Blue Pearl's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2006 which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Although Blue Pearl has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this news release and Blue Pearl disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Blue Pearl undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management's estimates or opinions should change. Accordingly, the reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Shares outstanding: 108,581,158

[Der.Papst]

dann haben wir ja jetzt eine Minenlaufzeit von über 40 JAHREN

[Firsteven]

Neue Hochrechnung!


Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources (1) (5) (6)

TCMC:
Measured + Indicated 370,5 Mio. Pfund
Inferred 50,2 Mio. Pfund
Zusammen: 420,7 Mio. Pfund

Endako:
ALT:
Indicated: ALT 80,4 Mio.Pfund !!!!

NEU: lt. Mitteilung vom 16.04.2007:
Measured + Indicated: 463,9 Mio. Pfund !!!!
Inferred: 56,2 Mio. Pfund !!!!
Zusammen: 520,1 Mio. Pfund !!!!

Also ein Zuwachs von insgesamt 439,7 Mio. Pfund x 30 USD = 13,2 Mrd. USD!!

Davidson:
Measured + Indicated: 293,5 Mio. Pfund


Reserven sind unverändert (werden erst angepasst wenn die jeweiligen FS vorliegen):

Proven und Probable Mineral Reserves:

TCMC:
Proven + Probable: 169,1 Mio. Pfund.

Endako:
Proven + Probable: 103,1 Mio. Pfund.


Insgesamt Resourcen u. Reserven:
1.506,5 Mio. Pfund x 30 USD = SAGENHAFTE 45,195 Mrd. USD!!!

Und das sind mal erste Zahlen! Da wird noch mehr kommen. Thompson Creek kommt noch + Davidson!


Fazit: In meinen Augen hatten wir das so in etwa erwartet - die neuen Schätzungen sind der Hammer!
Daran sieht man einmal das Endako super ist und was hier für ein Potenzial steckt - nicht umsonst soll hier eine Super-Pit entstehen.

[Firsteven]

Also so mal ganz grob gerechnet

bestehen 642,3 Mio. Tonnen (Resourcen (0,02)/Reserven)


As part of its review, Wardrop is examining the feasibility of constructing a super-pit, unifying the three existing pits into a large single pit, and of increasing mine production to 50,000 tonnes per day from approximately 30,000 tonnes per day, with a proportionate increase in roasting capacity.


Wenn also 50.000 tonnen pro Tag abgebaut werden, dann macht das 18,25 Mio. Tonnen pro Jahr.


642,3 Mio. Tonnen : 18,25 Mio. Tonnen = 35,2 Jahre (Minenleben) !!!!

Nur mal so ganz grob.

Wir werden hier eine deutliche Verlängerung des Minenlebens sehen! Die sollte China Moly in nichts nachstehen.

[DonMac]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.848.639 von Firsteven am 16.04.07 23:29:36

Ich freue mich schon jetzt über deine Rechenbeispiele mit einer 10 %igen einrechnung der Reserven.

Welche Kurse da wohl rauskommen werden wenn TC + Davidson noch dazu kommen

Ich weiss nur eins.

Unter € 80 verkaufe ich kein Stück.

Gruss

Don Mac

[CaptainBizeps]

Lieber mal mit 0,04 Cut-Off rechnen so sind auch alle Angaben auf der Webpage.

[chartex]

Gibt es eigentlich noch eine Steigerung zu so einem Tag?

Ausgehend von 15,18 CAD in einem einzigen Tag die 16 CAD, und weil es so schön war, gleich auch noch die 17 CAD genommen, 12,32% gestiegen, siebeneinhalb Millionen Aktien umgesetzt - und dann noch diese Hammernews hinterher.

Die folgenden Absätze beziehen sich auf die News, die gestern gegen 23 Uhr über Stockwatch und CCN-Matthews verbreitet wurde. In Kürze dürfte dies auch über SEDAR abzurufen sein.

Resourcen-Nachweis auf 450% erhöht

Bis gestern war Endako eine "sterbende" Mine mit gerade mal 6 Jahren Restlaufzeit und Rohstoffreserven in Höhe von gerade mal 103 Mio Pfund Moly (Proven and Probable Reserves).

Nun kommt die Meldung, dass bei einem Cut-off-Grad von 0,02% die Resources (Measured und Indicated gemeinsam) in Höhe von 463,9 Mio Pfund nachgewiesen sind. Dies ist eine Steigerung auf 450% gegenüber dem bisherigen Stand.
Bei einer geplanten Jahresproduktion von 13,3 Mio Pfund ergibt sich daraus in etwa eine Minenlaufzeit von 35 Jahren.

Bei einem Cut-off-Grad von 0,03% verbleiben immer noch 374,8 Mio Pfund Moly und eine Minenlaufzeit von etwa 28 Jahren.

Selbst wenn man von einem Cut-off-Grad von 0,04% ausgeht, sind noch 282,8 Mio Pfund übrig und ergeben eine Minenlaufzeit von 21 Jahren.

Was bedeutet dieser Cut-off-Grad?
Aus Gründen einer wirtschaftlichen Verarbeitung kann Erz mit zu geringem Molybdän-Gehalt nicht kostendeckend verarbeitet werden. Die entstehenden Kosten, um 1 Tonne Erz zu verarbeiten sind etwa gleich, egal ob das Erz einen hohen oder niedrigen Molybdän-Gehalt hat. Der Unterschied ist hauptsächlich, dass am Ende entweder (nur angenommen) 1 Pfund Molybdän, oder 4 Pfund Molybdän pro Tonne verarbeitetes Erz als Endprodukt übrig bleibt. Logisch, dass die Produktionskosten je Pfund im ersten Fall rund 4 Mal so hoch sind wie im zweiten.
Erz, das Molybdän unterhalb einer Konzentration enthält, die kostendeckend verarbeitet werden kann, wird also nur auf die Abraumhalde gekippt und nicht verarbeitet.
Die oben genannten Prozentangaben von 0,02% - 0,03% - 0,04% bei dem Cut-off-Grad bedeuten also, bis zu welcher Konzentration Erz als Abraum betrachtet wird. Bei einem Cut-off-Grad von 0,04% ist also alles an Erz nicht berücksichtigt, welches unterhalb dieser Konzentration liegt.

Warum werden diese verschiedenen Cut-off-Grade überhaupt angegeben?

Bei dem Resourcen-Nachweis wird noch keine Wirtschaftlichkeitsberechnung angestellt sondern nur eine Berechnung vorgenommen, wieviel Molybdän bei verschiedenen Cut-off-Graden übrig bleibt.
Im Rahmen der Feasibility-Studie erfolgt dann die Berechnung, ob der Abbau und die Verarbeitung von Erz dieser Konzentrationen lohnend durchgeführt werden kann. Die Feasibility-Studie entscheidet also darüber, welcher Cut-off-Grad tatsächlich notwendig ist.
Wenn auf diese Weise nachgewiesen ist, dass Erz oberhalb einer gewissen Konzentration wirtschaftlich abgebaut und verarbeitet werden kann (zu dem vorgegebenen Preis (nach der alten Endako-Studie zu 3,50 $, nunmehr zu 10 $)), dann wird die betreffende Rohstoffmenge nicht mehr als Resource sondern als Reserve bezeichnet.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Eine Systematik der Rohstoffbezeichnungen habe ich in einem früheren Posting bereits einmal zusammengestellt und kopiere diese hier noch einmal ein:

Die Einordnung der Rohstoffe in verschiedene Nachweis-Klassen

Die Einteilung erfolgt nach folgendem Schema:

Reserves Proven
Die "nachgewiesenen Reserven" sind Rohstoffmengen, die mit hoher Genauigkeit nachgewiesen sind und die tatsächlich wirtschaftlich abbaubar sind. Der Nachweis erfolgt durch eine (Pre-)Feasibility-Studie. Der Erzgehalt muss von dritter Seite bestätigt sein. Die Proven Reserves gehen aus den Measured Resources hervor.

Reserves Probable
Die "wahrscheinlichen Reserven" stellen geringere Anforderungen an die Nachweis-Genauigkeit (z.B. weniger Bohrlöcher), sonst wie bei "proven" beschrieben. Die Probable Reserves gehen aus den Indicated Resources hervor.

Reserves Possible
Die "möglichen Reserven" stellen nur Schätzungen dar. Die Possible Reserves gehen aus den Inferred Resources hervor. Da mit sehr vielen Unsicherheitsfaktoren behaftet, können die möglichen Reserven kaum zu einer aussagekräftigen Beurteilung herangezogen werden. In der offiziellen Berichtsterminologie kommt dieser Begriff nicht vor.


Resources Measured
Die "gemessenen Ressourcen" sind die höchste Kategorie, die ohne Feasibility-Studie erreicht werden kann. Die im Boden befindlichen Rohstoffe sind bereits mit hoher Genauigkeit nachgewiesen. Es wurde jedoch noch nicht nachgewiesen, dass der Abbau wirtschaftlich erfolgen kann.

Resources Indicated
Die "angezeigten Ressourcen" stellen geringere Anforderungen an die Nachweis-Genauigkeit. Hierfür werden z.B. weniger Bohrlöcher benötigt als für die Measured Resources. Die Berechnung führt zu einer hinreichenden Genauigkeit der vorhandenen Rohstoffmenge.

Resources Inferred
Die "vermuteten Ressourcen" stellen die niedrigst Stufe der Genauigkeit dar. Die Berechnung der vorhandenen Rohstoffmenge erfolgt insbesondere anhand von Stichproben-Bohrungen und ist damit durch eine gewisse Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Auf einen ganz knappen Nenner gebracht:
Diese News weitet die im Boden vorhandenen Rohstoffmengen aus bis zum viereinhalb-fachen (je nach erforderlichem Cut-off-Grad und verlängert die Minenlebensdauer ganz dramatisch. In diesem Bereich wird Blue Pearl dann gut vergleichbar mit der chinesischen Molyfirma die soeben an die Börse gebracht wird. Damit wäre auch das dort angesetzte KGV von 14 für Blue Pearl als vergleichbar anzusehen.
Zudem wird in Aussicht gestellt, dass durch Einrichtung eines Super-Pit die in Endako jährlich produzierte Molybdänmenge um etwa 66% erhöht werden könnte, wenn die in Auftrag gegebene Studie positiv ausfällt. Zu diesem Zweck würde dann evtl. auch der in Endako vorhandene 2. Röster (seit einigen Jahren stillgelegt) wieder in Betrieb genommen werden.
Weiter wird ausgeführt, dass für die Thompson-Creek-Mine eine ähnliche Neuberechnung zur Ausweitung der Rohstoffe und der Minenlebensdauer durchgeführt wird.

Für die gut informierten User hier im Thread ist dies alles in etwa so erwartet worden, lediglich die Höhe der ausgewiesenen Resourcen übertrifft sogar die positiven Erwartungen nochmals um einiges. Die durchschnittlichen Anleger werden von den positiven Fakten dieser News jedoch sicherlich überrascht sein, da ausreichende Kenntnis dieser Gegebenheiten sich noch nicht verbreitet hatte. Institutionelle Anleger haben eine weitere Aufstellung von Fakten zur eigenen Bewertung.
Für die Berechnung eines fairen Aktienkurses sind die Daten dieser News eine wertvolle Stütze. Entsprechende Ausführungen wurden von mehreren Usern (vielen Dank) weiter oben im Thread (Hauptthread) bereits durchgeführt.

chartex

[Firsteven]

BLUE PEARL MINING LTD



Top Of Our Radar: Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Announces Updated Estimate for its Endako Mine
4/17/2007

Apr 17, 2007 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --
Market Gainer is quickly emerging as the one stop shop for international small-cap investors looking to stay a step ahead of the markets. Today's activity on the markets has brought these companies to the attention of our research team. On the TSX Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE), is responding to the attention of investors. Our goal is to create a community of international investors who consistently and effectively capitalize on the enormous gains the small-cap Canadian and American exchanges offer.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE), the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producer, today announced an updated measured and indicated molybdenum resource estimate for its producing Endako Mine near Fraser Lake, British Columbia. The updated resource estimate was calculated by the Vancouver office of Wardrop Engineering Inc. to the specifications of National Instrument 43-101 and in accordance with the CIM Standards. The effective date of the new estimate is April 15, 2007.

"The new resource estimate is the first step in our program of updating resource and reserve estimates at the Endako and Thompson Creek mines where such updates had not been a priority when the mines were privately owned," said Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman. "We plan to release additional resource and ultimately reserve estimates as they become available during 2007 from the consulting firms that are producing them.

"The Endako Mine currently processes approximately 10 million tonnes of ore per year and its existing mine plan extends to 2013. However, the new resource estimate indicates there is the potential to extend the mine life. The calculation of mine life along with a reserve estimate will be part of the next stage of work by Wardrop," Mr. McDonald stated.

The Endako Mine, which has produced molybdenum for more than 40 years, is operated as a joint venture with Blue Pearl having a 75% interest and Japan-based Sojitz Corporation having a 25% interest.

At a cut-off grade of 0.02% molybdenum (Mo), Wardrop estimates measured and indicated Mo resources at the Endako Mine of 492 million tonnes with an average grade of 0.043% Mo and contained Mo of 464 million pounds (75% of which are to Blue Pearl's account). Measured resources are 138 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.05% Mo and indicated resources are 354 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.04% Mo. In addition, the property contains inferred resources of 76 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.033% Mo.

Following this announcement, Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE), was trading up over 1% in early trading. The Market Gainer Research Team will continue to gauge the short and long term affects that this announcement will have on the company.

For a complimentary subscription to the newest and most exciting online financial newsletter on the market, visit www.marketgainer.com. This article is available for viewing in the featured articles section on our website. No Credit Card information needed.

The Financial Information and Financial Content provided by Marketgainer.com (MG or Market Gainer) is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or endorsement, recommendations, or sponsorship of any company or security by MG. You acknowledge and agree that any request for information is unsolicited and shall neither constitute nor be construed as investment advice by MG to you. It is strongly recommended that you seek outside advice from a qualified securities professional prior to making any securities investment. MG does not provide or guarantee any legal, tax, or accounting advice or advice regarding the suitability, profitability, or potential value of any particular investment, security, or informational source.

All material herein was prepared by based upon information believed to be reliable. The information contained herein is not guaranteed by MG to be accurate, and should not be considered to be all-inclusive. The companies that are discussed in this opinion have not approved the statements made in this opinion. This opinion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. MG is not a licensed broker, broker dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. Please consult a broker before purchasing or selling any securities viewed on or mentioned herein.

This release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended and such forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. "Forward-looking statements" describe future expectations, plans, results, or strategies and are generally preceded by words such as "may", "future", "plan" or "planned", "will" or "should", "expected," "anticipates", "draft", "eventually" or "projected". You are cautioned that such statements are subject to a multitude of risks and uncertainties that could cause future circumstances, events, or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements, including the risks that actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, and other risks identified in a companies' annual report on Form 10-K or 10-KSB and other filings made by such company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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(C)1994-2007 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTD

[Firsteven]

Ein User hatte mich um eine Stellungnahme gebeten. Ich denke, dass dies vielleicht auch für andere von Interesse ist und stelle meine Antwort hier als Posting ein:

Hallo xxxxx,

leider ist es nicht möglich, den Kursverlauf einer Aktie aus den Vergangenheitsdaten des Chart exakt vorherzusagen. Für eine kurzfristige Prognose ist es möglich, gewisse Wahrscheinlichkeiten anzugeben, wie sich der Kurs entwickeln könnte.
Für eine langfristige Prognose ist die Erwartung, dass eine fundamental vorhandene Über- oder Unterbewertung ausgeglichen werden wird, die bessere Methode.

Nach dem Anstieg der letzten Wochen sieht der Chart prächtig aus und alle Indikatoren sprechen eine bullische Sprache. Ich kann noch nicht einmal eine bedenkliche Überkauft-Situation feststellen. Charttechnisch gibt es nach oben keine Widerstände mehr.
Wenn man die Fibonacci-Extension bemüht, dann kann man feststellen, dass heute bei 425% bzw. 17,64 CAD ein kleiner (vorläufig Intraday) Zacken im Chart entstanden ist. Ein kurzes Zögern war auch bei den Fibonacci-Extensions bei 9,50 CAD, 11,74 CAD und 13,98 CAD festzustellen. Trotzdem wurden diese Marken nach jeweils kurzer Zeit und ohne wesentliche Rücksetzer genommen. Man könnte vermuten, dass dies auch bei der jetzt erreichten Marke der Fall ist.

Andererseits zeigt die Erfahrung, dass nach einem steilen Anstieg, bedingt durch Gewinnmitnahmen, häufig ein gewisser Kursrückgang eintritt.

Bezogen auf Blue Pearl sehe ich die Gewinnmitnahmen im Moment jedoch als erledigt an. Wer verkaufen wollte, der hat dies heute in der ersten Stunde nach Eröffnung in Toronto getan (dieser Effekt wurde durch einen scharfen Kursrückgang direkt nach der sehr hohen Eröffnung noch verstärkt).

Nunmehr ist die Aktie wieder schön am steigen. Ich gehe davon aus, dass die News doch deutlich besser ausgefallen ist, als die Mehrzahl der Marktteilnehmer dies erwartet hat. Ich muss zugeben, selbst meine eigenen, hohen Erwartungen wurden übertroffen.

Vergleiche mit anderen Aktien (erst gestern wurden einige einschlägige Charts hier eingestellt) zeigen, dass auch bei einem Anstieg um mehrere hundert Prozent eine zwischenzeitliche Konsolidierung nicht zwingend erfolgen muss. Insbesondere bei einer unterbewerteten Aktie, und einer Aufeinanderfolge von guten News, kann so ein Anstieg über lange Zeit weitergehen.

Eine Abfolge guter News ist für Blue Pearl für die nächsten Wochen und Monate zu vermuten. Ob diese News schnell genug aufeinander folgen, und die Erwartungshaltung positiv genug ist, um eine Konsolidierung zu vermeiden, kann dir wohl niemand beantworten.

Aus Performance-Überlegungen erscheint es mir nicht sinnvoll, vorsorglich die ganze Position oder einen Teil davon zu verkaufen, solange die Aktie am Steigen ist. Gewinne sollte man laufen lassen. Aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach fährt man mit diese Methode besser, als freiwillig die eigene Performance abzuwürgen, in der Hoffnung, weiter unten wieder einsteigen zu können. Diese Handlungsweise hat in den letzten Wochen schon viele Anleger aus dieser scheinbar unbeirrbar steigenden Aktie hinausgekegelt.

Wer Blue Pearl nicht als ein Langfrist-Investment betrachtet, sondern nur einen Teil des Weges, einen schnellen Zwischenanstieg, mitnehmen will, für den ist natürlich inzwischen Wachsamkeit geboten. Die Möglichkeit, dass eine Konsolidierung kommt, ist niemals auszuschliessen.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Vergleiche mit anderen Aktien (erst gestern wurden einige einschlägige Charts hier eingestellt) zeigen, dass auch bei einem Anstieg um mehrere hundert Prozent eine zwischenzeitliche Konsolidierung nicht zwingend erfolgen muss. Insbesondere bei einer unterbewerteten Aktie, und einer Aufeinanderfolge von guten News, kann so ein Anstieg über lange Zeit weitergehen.

Eine Abfolge guter News ist für Blue Pearl für die nächsten Wochen und Monate zu vermuten. Ob diese News schnell genug aufeinander folgen, und die Erwartungshaltung positiv genug ist, um eine Konsolidierung zu vermeiden, kann dir wohl niemand beantworten.

Aus Performance-Überlegungen erscheint es mir nicht sinnvoll, vorsorglich die ganze Position oder einen Teil davon zu verkaufen, solange die Aktie am Steigen ist. Gewinne sollte man laufen lassen. Aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach fährt man mit diese Methode besser, als freiwillig die eigene Performance abzuwürgen, in der Hoffnung, weiter unten wieder einsteigen zu können. Diese Handlungsweise hat in den letzten Wochen schon viele Anleger aus dieser scheinbar unbeirrbar steigenden Aktie hinausgekegelt.

Hallo chartex,

an dem Zeitpunkt der Endako-News kann man entnehmen, dass die Aktie jetzt mit aller Macht in den fairen Preisbereich hinein gebracht werden soll.

Da gestern einige, auch hier im Thread, schon angefangen haben und Gewinnmitnahme zu betreiben, wäre die Aktie heute ohne die "good news" mit einiger Sicherheit zurückgekommen.

Das wurde geschickt verhindert, da durch die Nachricht genug Neueinsteiger vorhanden waren und die Gewinnmitnahmen fast überwiegend im positiven Kursbereich statt fanden.

An dem Timeing kann man erkennen, dass hier wirkliche Profis am Werke sind.

Über die Ursache der Eile, in der man den Kurs treibt, kann man jetzt unterschiedlicher Meinung sein.

Auf alle Fälle wird das Übernehmen von BluePearl jeden Tag teurer und damit immer unwahrscheinlicher.

Am Wochenende hatten wir aber die Möglichkeit der Übernahme eines anderen Produzenten diskutiert, da Mitte März ein unerträglich hoher Cashbestand vorhanden war.

Mittlerer Weile freunde ich mich mit dem gedanken an. Die Ankündigung bei Endako die Rösterkapazität ausbauen zu wollen, deutet ebenfalls auf eine solche Möglichkeit hin. Heißt aber: die zu übernehmende Mine ist wahrscheinlich in der Nähe von Endako.

Wozu dann aber die Eile beim Kurs:
Wenn es wirklich zu einer Übernahme kommen sollte, dann wird mit Sicherheit ein großer Betrag des Kaufpreises durch eine Kapitalerhöhung gedeckt werden. Höherer Preis = weniger Aktien für den gleichen Endbetrag. Soetwas nenne ich dann Beachtung des Shareholder-values.

Nach meiner Meinung wird man die Eile beibehalten und jedesmal, wenn man einen Rücksetzer erwarten könnte, eine der vielen erwarteten News, platzieren.

Deshalb: Eine Konsolidierung kann immer kommen, aber momentan gehe ich persönlich nicht davon aus. Aber: irren ist menschlich und ich bin einer davon.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes..Moly Comment Today..Apr/17/07

Scandinavian Gets Court Order To Seize 20 mt of FeMo
CCMA is not the only company that is taking legal recourse against Chinese companies that fail to honor supply contracts. Scandinavian Steel has obtained an order from a court in Rotterdam to arrest 20 mt of ferromoly from Huludao Hongda Moly because of non-performance of a contract. (end comment)

*Note: This is the second time in the last week an end-user has had court ordered siezures of Chinese produced metals. One aspect could be C hinese miners holding out on orders to obtain higher prices elsewhere or else it is sheer lack of product coming to market on time. Either way it is a strong signal and a sign of the times we're entering for Moly and other base metals..KR




CCMA seizes Chinese manganese metal
After having its Chinese manganese metals refuse to perform on existing supply contracts, CCMA obtained orders of attachment from a court in Rotterdam to seizure of goods from Xiangxi MinMetals Co. Ltd., Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture MinMetals Import & Export Co. Ltd., Huayuan East China Manganese Co., Ltd., Yaohua Manganese Industrial Co., Ltd., Xiushan Xinfeng Manganese Industrial Co., Ltd., Xiangxijinge Manganese Industry Co., Ltd., and Hunan Sanxin Co. About 400 mt of manganese metal was seized late last week, but it is a faction of the amount contract for. As a result, CCMA intends to seize other goods shipped from Xiangxi MinMetals Co., Ltd., as well as from the companies that it owns and/or controls, in order to compensate it for the damages that it has suffered. Instead of delivering it to CCMA, the Chinese companies were offering the manganese metal at a $1,000 over what CCMA contracted for. "The Chinese have to learn that a contract is binding," one analyst said. "This way, the Chinese will realize there is a penalty for breaking the law."



http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/…

[Firsteven]

Sprott Launches IPO Fully Subscribed and raises $189 Million
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
By Resourcex

Moly lovers get a participation stock

Sprott Molybdenum Participation (TSX: T.MLY, BullBoards) has settled into its second day on the TSX at a comfortable $5.72, up 72 cents from its successful IPO yesterday. On Monday, the company sold 37.8 million units at $5.00 each, bringing in a total of $189 million.

Purchasers received one share and one half of a warrant. Each warrant entitles shareholders to purchase one common share in the fund for $7.50 until April 16, 2009. The IPO was fully-subscribed and saw the agents fully exercise the 5% overallotment option.

According to the Sprott Molybdenum Participation (SMP) website www.SprottMoly.com, Sprott Chairman and Chief Executive Eric Sprott created the fund as an investment holding company that will invest in Molybdenum assets such as the securities of public and private companies, as well as physical molybdenum.

The Sprott Molybdenum Participation fund recently purchased 10% of moly exploration company, International PBX (TSX: V.PBX, BullBoards). Sprott management purchased a total of 20% of the junior, for a total of $7 million.

In April, moly-producer Blue Pearl (TSX: T.BLE, BullBoards) sold three million of its shares at $12 each to Sprott Molybdenum for a total of $36 million in a private placement.

There has been strong interest in the junior molybdenum market recently, with many analysts suggesting further upside in the white metal\'s price, since little has been added to supply. The molybdenum market is considered very tight.

According to SMP director Denis Battrum\'s March 2007 essay, "Structural Changes in Molybdenum Demand," "Molybdenum is undergoing significant structural change on both the supply and demand sides which makes a return to earlier price structures unlikely."

Doug Hadfield is the Chief Editor of the Resourcex Investor, an internationally distributed newsletter specializing in identifying as-yet-undiscovered resource companies representing the best in their class. For more information, visit the website www.resourcexinvestor.com.
http://www.stockhouse.com/shfn/editorial.asp?edtID=19591

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Triples Endako Mine's Molybdenum Estimate 2007-04-17 16:23 (New York)

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., the metal
producer that is the best performer on Canada's main stock index
in the past year, tripled its estimate of molybdenum resources
contained in a British Columbia mine. The shares rose.
The Endako deposit has about 283 million pounds of the
copper byproduct that strengthens steel, Blue Pearl said today in
a statement, citing Wardrop Engineering Inc. in Vancouver. The
mine was expected to have 80 million pounds in a smaller study by
Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates in 2005, Blue Pearl said.
The 2005 survey ``only looked at resources in three pits at
Endako and didn't look around them,'' Wayne Cheveldayoff,
spokesman for Toronto-based Blue Pearl, said in a telephone
interview. ``We've done more drilling in the meantime.''
Blue Pearl aims to boost reserves to take advantage of a 25
percent rise in global molybdenum prices in the past year. The
rise has helped other miners of the metal used in oil pipelines
and tools, such as Moly Mines Ltd., based in Perth, Australia.
Moly Mines shares have more than doubled in the past month.
After completing a new mining plan for Endako, Wardrop will
estimate the deposit's total molybdenum reserves, or the amount
of recoverable metal, with a molybdenum price assumption of $10 a
pound, the company said. That's up from $3.50 a pound used in the
2005 assessment, the company said.
Shares Rise

Blue Pearl shares rose 25 cents, or 1.5 percent, to C$17.30
at 4:20 p.m. in Toronto Stock Exchange trading, after earlier
reaching $17.87. The shares have increased more than fourfold in
the past year.
Global molybdenum demand will rise this year by at least 4
percent to 426.4 million pounds from 410 million pounds in 2006,
Blue Pearl Chief Executive Officer Kevin Loughrey said in a March
27 interview. Higher prices will allow Blue Pearl to increase the
amount of reserves it can profitably mine beyond the 742 million
pounds it already has identified, Loughrey said.

[Firsteven]

What\'s hot in metal? Punters tip moly holy
Mark Hawthorne
April 18, 2007

THOSE who missed the boat on the nickel and uranium booms have been trying to identify the next hot commodity.

For months, hedge funds have been taking a bet on molybdenum stocks — a metal that resists heat, cold and corrosion better than steel — and it looks like they\'ve hit pay dirt.

In Australian mining circles molybdenum is called "moly", and its price has been soaring since January, due to export restrictions in China.

China has the world\'s largest molybdenum reserves, but in 2005, peasants in Hubei blamed molybdenum mines for poisoning the Chaoshui river. Rioters destroyed an estimated 200 molybdenum mines, crippling the world\'s supplies.

Ironically, environmental issues are the reason for moly\'s soaring price — it is used by a range of power industries to remove sulphur from emissions, and in oil, gas and water pipelines to prevent rust.

The global molybdenum producers — Phelps Dodge, Codelco and Rio Tinto — increased output in 2005 after the China riots, but the price of moly on the spot market rose from an average $US4.50 a pound (in the 10 years to 2004) to a record $US40 in late 2005. The price slid back last year, but has again been creeping up, to $US29 a pound.

The interest in the metal has been enough for the London Metals Exchange to announce plans for a moly market, which will begin later this year.

One player is Perth-based Moly Mines, which is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and in Toronto, where it raised $24 million through a placement this month. The company is developing the Spinifex Ridge molybdenum project.

Moly Mines, which once had Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest as its chairman, has soared since January. It share price is up 400 per cent, from a fraction over $1 a share to $4.99 yesterday. It was given a speeding ticket from the ASX in February

Moly Mines chief executive Derek Fisher has just returned from an investment roadshow in London, where his pitch was that the world\'s energy pipelines are rotting and need replacing — with pipes made frommolybdenum.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/whats-hot-in-metal-pu…

[Vinyard]

Welche Unternehmen kommen deiner Ansicht nach in Frage?

[Vinyard]

An welche Firmen hast du wegen der Übernahme gedacht?

[Vinyard]

An welche Firma zwecks Übernahme hast du gedacht?

[beautifulmind]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 cv2
A N N U A L R E P O R T 2 0 0 6
.
Blue Pearl operates mines in Idaho and
northern British Columbia, producing 5% of
the world’s annual molybdenum supply.
Focus on North America
The Thompson Creek Mine near Challis, Idaho
is the third-largest primary molybdenum mine
in the world. The Endako Mine at Fraser Lake,
British Columbia is the fifth-largest.
World-class operations
One of the World’s Largest Molybdenum Producers
in the network
USA
Canada
Davidson Deposit
British Columbia
Thompson Creek
mine
Idaho Langeloth
Metallurgical
facility
Pennsylvania
Endako Mine
British Columbia
Giant electric-powered shovels and heavy duty
200-ton trucks move waste rock and ore from
molybdenum porphyry deposits to on-site mills
for processing.
Large-scale open-pit mining
Contents
24 Management’s
Discussion and
Analysis of Financial
Results
39 Auditors’ Report to
Shareholders
40 Financial Statements
IBC Corporate Information
1 Highlights
3 Mineral Reserves and
Resources
4 Letter to Shareholders
8 Thompson Creek Mine
11 Endako Mine
14 Davidson Deposit
16 Langeloth Metallurgical
Facility
20 Molybdenum Markets
22 Social Responsibility,
Environment and Recycling
Front cover photo: Thompson Creek Mine –
Giant shovel can move 40 cubic yards (84 tons) with each scoop
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
Molybdenite ore is crushed, ground and
processed in on-site mills known as
concentrators to produce molybdenum
disulfide concentrate (MoS2).
On-site processing Major roasting facilities
Blue Pearl’s metallurgical facilities at Langeloth and Endako
currently have the capacity to produce 50 million pounds of
technical grade molybdenum oxide per year, which is approximately
12% of the world’s total roasting capacity.
The Thompson Creek and Endako mills
together process up to 56,000 tonnes of
molybdenite ore per day.
High-tonnage processing
In addition to technical grade molybdenum oxide, the Company
produces value-added products, such as ferromolybdenum
(FeMo), a key ingredient in steel and cast iron manufacturing.
Blue Pearl’s Langeloth facility is the largest producer of FeMo
in North America.
High-value products
Highlights
During 2006, Blue Pearl became the fifth-largest molybdenum producer in the world as a result of its purchase of
privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company.
The Company recorded revenues of US$150.8 million and cash flow from operating activities of US$75.4 million during
the year - virtually all occurring in the 67-day, post-acquisition period from October 26 to December 31, 2006.
Blue Pearl has strong growth potential at its two operating open-pit mines, with production expected to increase
from 21 million pounds in 2007 to 27 million pounds in 2008. The Company also plans, subject to a feasibility study
that is currently underway, to develop the high-grade Davidson Deposit near Smithers, British Columbia. Once
developed, it will be one of the highest-grade molybdenum mines in the world.
Blue Pearl has total measured and indicated mineral resources of 742 million pounds, including 246 million pounds
of proven and probable mineral reserves, as at the time of publication of this report. The mineral resources and
reserves are currently being re‑evaluated using a higher molybdenum price and updated costs for the development of
new mine plans at Thompson Creek and Endako.
Thompson Creek Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
Mineral Reserves and Resources
Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources (1) (5) (6)
Mine Category Tonnes Molybdenum Contained
Grade Molybdenum
(millions) (%) (millions of pounds)
Thompson Creek Mine (2) Measured 55.7 0.104 127.9
Indicated 122.9 0.090 242.7
Measured + Indicated 178.6 0.094 370.6
Inferred 34.5 0.066 50.2
Endako Mine (3) Indicated 51.8 0.070 80.4
Davidson Project (4) Measured 4.9 0.185 20.1
Indicated 70.4 0.176 273.4
Measured + Indicated 75.3 0.177 293.5
(1) The mineral resource estimates for the Thompson Creek Mine are as of April 30, 2006, for the Endako Mine are as of September 30, 2005 and for the Davidson Project are
as of December 17, 2004, and have been calculated in accordance with the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (“CIM”) — Definitions Adopted by CIM
Council on December 11, 2005 (the “CIM Standards”) which were adopted by National Instrument 43-101 (“NI 43-101”).
(2) The mineral resources for the Thompson Creek Mine set out in the table above have been estimated by William E. Roscoe, P.Eng., Consulting Geologist with Scott Wilson
Roscoe Postle Associates Inc. (“SWRPA”), and John T. Postle, P.Eng., Consulting Mining Engineer with SWRPA, who are qualified persons under NI 43-101.
(3) The mineral resources for the Endako Mine set out in the table above have been estimated by Richard E. Routledge, M.Sc., Applied, P.Geo., Consulting Geologist with SWRPA
and John T. Postle, P.Eng., Consulting Mining Engineer with SWRPA, who are qualified persons under NI 43-101. Blue Pearl only owns 75% of the Endako Mine.
(4) The mineral resources for the Davidson Project set out in the table above have been estimated by Gary Giroux, P.Eng. who is a qualified person under NI 43-101.
(5) Mineral resources include mineral reserves for the Thompson Creek Mine. Mineral resources include probable mineral reserves for the Endako Mine.
(6) Mineral resources are reported at a cut-off grade of 0.04% molybdenum for the Thompson Creek Mine and the Endako Mine and 0.12% molybdenum for the Davidson Project.
Proven and Probable Mineral Reserves (1) (4)
Mine Category Tonnes Molybdenum Contained
Grade Molybdenum
(millions) (%) (millions of pounds)
Thompson Creek Mine (2) Proven (5) 28.1 0.123 76.0
Probable 36.4 0.116 93.0
Proven + Probable 64.5 0.119 169.1
Endako Mine (3) Proven (5) 22.2 0.046 22.7
Probable 51.8 0.070 80.4
Proven + Probable 74.0 0.063 103.1
(1) The mineral reserve estimates for the Thompson Creek Mine are as of April 30, 2006 and for the Endako Mine are as of September 30, 2005, and have been calculated in
accordance with the CIM Standards.
(2) The mineral reserves for the Thompson Creek Mine set out in the table above have been estimated by William E. Roscoe, P. Eng. and John T. Postle, P. Eng. who are qualified
persons under NI 43-101.
(3) The mineral reserves for the Endako Mine set out in the table above have been estimated by Richard E. Routledge, P.Geo., M.Sc., Applied, Consulting Geologist with SWRPA,
and John T. Postle, P.Eng., Consulting Mining Engineer with SWRPA, who are qualified persons under NI 43-101. Blue Pearl only owns 75% of the Endako Mine.
(4) Mineral reserves are reported at a cut-off grade of 0.04% molybdenum and estimated using a long-term molybdenum price of US$5.00 per pound for the Thompson Creek
Mine and US$3.50 per pound for the Endako Mine.
(5) Including stockpile.
Cautionary Note to United States Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Resources
This Annual Report uses the terms “Measured”, “Indicated” and “Inferred” Resources. United States investors are advised that while such terms are recognized and
required by Canadian regulations, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize them. “Inferred Mineral Resources” have a great amount
of uncertainty as to their existence, and as to their economic and legal feasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred Mineral Resource will ever be
upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of Inferred Mineral Resources may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. United
States investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of Measured or Indicated Mineral Resources will ever be converted into Mineral Reserves. United
States investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an Inferred Mineral Resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable.
Readers should refer to the short form prospectus of Blue Pearl dated October 13, 2006, and other continuous disclosure documents filed by Blue Pearl since January 1,
2007 available at www.sedar.com, for further information on mineral reserves and resources, which is subject to the qualifications and notes set forth therein.
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
We are very pleased to report that our Company went
through a major transformation in 2006 with important
benefits to shareholders.
At the beginning of the year, Blue Pearl was focused on
developing a molybdenum deposit in northern British
Columbia. By late October, due to the acquisition of
privately owned Thompson Creek Metals Company, Blue
Pearl was transformed into a large, integrated North
American primary molybdenum producer with annual
production in excess of 20 million pounds of molybdenum
– making our Company one of the five largest molybdenum
producers in the world.
Blue Pearl’s producing assets, which provide us with a
strong competitive advantage within the industry, include
the Thompson Creek open-pit mine and mill near Challis,
Idaho, a large metallurgical roasting facility at Langeloth,
Pennsylvania, and a 75% interest in the Endako
open-pit mine, mill and roasting facility near Fraser Lake,
British Columbia. The Company also continues to develop
Letter to Shareholders
Ian J. McDonald
Executive Chairman
Kevin Loughrey
President & Chief Executive Officer
its previously owned asset, the underground Davidson
Deposit, near Smithers, British Columbia.
Change brings new priorities
The dramatic change in the Company necessitated a
substantial shift in management focus. Our Company’s
current priorities are to:
Continue to manage our operating properties in a safe
and profitable manner;
Continue to pay down the debt incurred as part of the
acquisition financing;
Increase the mineral resources and reserves and the
mine life of the mines owned by the Company (engineering
studies for this purpose are underway);
Take the necessary steps to bring the Davidson Deposit
into production; and
Undertake additional growth initiatives that have the
potential to further increase shareholder value.
Continue performance at existing operations
The existing operating properties are the heart of Blue
Pearl. The Thompson Creek Mine, the Endako Mine,
and the Langeloth roasting facility are the keys to our
Company’s success. We are fortunate to have acquired
excellent management and a highly competent workforce
at all three properties. We will continue to operate
these properties in a manner that is profitable for our
* Excludes potential production from Davidson Deposit, which is
contingent on a positive feasibility study and permitting
Molybdenum Production 2006-2009*
Endako 75%
Thompson Creek
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
06 07 08
Mo (million lbs)
09
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
shareholders, safe for our workforce and environmentally
responsible for our local communities. The continuing
successful operation of these facilities will allow us to do
all that we have planned for Blue Pearl.
Pay down debt
The Company’s bank debt as of the end of 2006 was
US$402 million. Current arrangements call for the repayment
of the bulk of this debt within five years. The price of
molybdenum in world markets as of the end of 2006 was
relatively strong at about US$25 per pound. If the price
stays near this level in the future, the Company will be in
an excellent position to pay down the debt faster than
planned. In March 2007, the Company prepaid its US$62
million Second Lien Credit Facility.
New mine plans are being developed
We are developing new mine plans at Thompson Creek
and Endako. The new plans will be based on a re-evaluation
of mineral resources and reserves assuming a long-term
molybdenum price of US$10 per pound and updated
costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price
of US$5 per pound at Thompson Creek and US$3.50 per
pound at Endako.
The next stage of development at Thompson Creek will be
to widen and deepen the existing pit, assuming there
are positive results from a mine re-design study by
John T. Boyd Company. At Endako, Wardrop Engineering
is similarly studying the expansion of the existing pit
assuming a higher molybdenum price and updated costs.
In addition, the engineering firm is conducting a scoping
study to determine the viability of constructing a superpit,
unifying three existing pits, and of increasing ore
production to 50,000 tonnes per day from approximately
30,000 tonnes per day. The studies are expected to be
completed by mid-2007 with additional work possibly
necessary during the balance of the year.
Davidson Deposit is important for future growth
Our Davidson Deposit, which is Canada’s largest undeveloped
molybdenum deposit, is important in the Company’s
future as it represents an opportunity for organic growth at
low capital cost. The deposit’s high-grade core is easily
accessible with minimal impact on the environment. A feasibility
study is currently being conducted by Hatch Ltd.
and is expected to be completed during the second quarter
of 2007. The study is examining the feasibility of mining
2,000 tonnes of high-grade ore per day from the deposit
and shipping it to the Endako facility 200 kilometres away
for processing. We expect positive results from the feasibility
study and from the application for environmental
permitting, which will soon be submitted to provincial
authorities. Should mining at Davidson begin as expected
in late 2008, it would significantly increase the Company’s
overall annual molybdenum production.
Outlook is positive
For Blue Pearl, the price of molybdenum on world markets
is the single most important variable in cash flow and
Thompson Creek Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
and develop new mine plans, management adopted plans
for optimizing the Thompson Creek operation. The 28,500
tons per day processing facility had been operating on a
7-day-on, 7-day-off rotation. Early in 2007, as an interim
step, we converted the operation to a 10-day-on, 4-day-off
rotation. This was increased to a continuous production
schedule in March 2007. The results of the additional mill
throughput are expected to be an increase of 2.4 million
pounds of molybdenum production over the original plan
for 2007.
The Thompson Creek operation is currently expected to
produce 12.8 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 at an
estimated cost, including roasting, of US$8.50 per pound.
Production will be lower and unit costs higher in 2007
compared with 2006 because of a lower head grade as the
operation transitions to the next mining phase, and as the
accelerated stripping required to expose the next phase of
the orebody is completed. In addition, a low-grade stockpile
is being used as mill feed for part of the year in order to
operate the mill on a full-time basis and increase the
production of molybdenum. The increased output from the
milling of lower-grade feed is anticipated to increase unit
costs, but also to increase cash flow. Production in 2008 is
expected to return to a more normal level of 17 million
pounds of molybdenum resulting in lower unit costs.
We expect the Company’s 75%-owned Endako operation
to produce 11.3 million pounds of molybdenum (8.5 million
pounds to Blue Pearl’s account) in 2007 at a cost of $6.65
per pound including roasting costs. In 2008, production is
expected to total 13.3 million pounds (10 million pounds to
Blue Pearl’s account) and per-unit costs are expected to
be reduced.
The name Blue Pearl has been a successful one for our
Company. However, for many of our shareholders,
customers, suppliers, and the communities in which we
work, the name Thompson Creek Metals Company is more
familiar and more descriptive of our Company as it is now
profitability. Our current reading of supply and demand
fundamentals points to a relatively strong molybdenum
price for the foreseeable future. There are many industry
developments that we believe are supportive of this view.
One is an increase in capital investment in the energy
industry, which is a major source of demand for the
strengthening and anti-corrosion contribution that
molybdenum provides in steel products. Other reasons
include a continuation of a declining trend over the last
several years in Chinese exports and several new and
expanded uses for molybdenum. A strong molybdenum
price can be expected to produce very favourable financial
results for the Company over time as it should significantly
exceed our cost of production.
However, the Company believes management action will
also have an important impact on Blue Pearl’s growth and
profitability in the future. Following the acquisition, Blue
Pearl embarked on a long-term strategy to maximize mine
life and profitability at its existing operations. In addition to
the initiatives to re-evaluate mineral resources and reserves
Electric-powered shovel at Thompson Creek Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
constituted. Consequently, we will seek approval from
shareholders to change the name of our Company to
Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc.
In summary, we are optimistic about the future growth
and profitability of Blue Pearl. The Company’s molybdenum
production is currently expected to be 21 million
pounds in 2007, rising to 27 million pounds in 2008 and
29 million pounds in 2009. This includes only production
from Thompson Creek and the Company’s 75% share of
production at Endako; it specifically excludes any potential
production from the Davidson Deposit, which is conditional
upon a positive feasibility study and permitting.
Management is working on plans at Thompson Creek
and Endako to increase production beyond these levels.
As production rises, there will be a consequent positive
impact on cash flow and profitability (assuming the continuation
of a relatively strong molybdenum price) and a
likely additional positive effect from a decline in average
per-pound costs of production. If the Company is successful
in bringing the Davidson Deposit on-stream in the
time frame currently anticipated, Blue Pearl’s total production,
cash flow and profitability would be significantly
enhanced in 2009.
Our focus on additional growth initiatives to enhance
shareholder value is currently aimed at opportunities to
acquire molybdenum concentrates being produced
at existing mines or expected to be produced at
mines under development. We believe there may be
possibilities to acquire molybdenum concentrates under
favourable terms for subsequent roasting at our Langeloth
metallurgical facility.
We would like to thank our shareholders for their support in
2006 and our more than 700 employees for their hard work
and dedication to bringing about positive results in their
respective workplaces. We would also like to extend our
appreciation to the members of the Board of Directors for
their wisdom and guidance through what can only be
described as an incredible year. Mr. John Kalmet, who has
served on the Board since 2005 and has been invaluable in
providing timely advice and particular insight into the
molybdenum market, will be retiring from the Board at the
upcoming annual meeting. We wish to thank John for his
diligence as a Board member and his technical expertise as
a mining engineer and wish him the best in his retirement.
Sincerely,
On behalf of the Board of Directors,
Ian J. McDonald Kevin Loughrey
Executive Chairman President and
Chief Executive Officer
Toronto, March 26, 2007
Overland conveyor at Thompson Creek Mine
Thompson Creek Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006
Thompson Creek Mine Cross Section
E
8,000 ft.
7,000 ft.
6,000 ft.
354,000E 355,000E 356,000E 357,000E 358,000E
Current
mine
plan
Projected
mine
plan
1,000 feet
W
The Thompson Creek Mine is the second-largest open-pit
primary molybdenum mine in the world. It is located in
rugged mountainous terrain at elevations ranging from
6,000 to 8,500 feet above sea level. The mine property,
which includes an open pit, mill and tailings facility, is
approximately 35 miles southwest of the town of Challis in
Idaho’s Custer County, which is a historic mining area.
The mine, which began operations in 1983, uses conventional
open-pit mining methods with large electric-powered
shovels that load ore onto 200-ton trucks to be hauled to
an on-site mill (concentrator). A molybdenum disulfide
concentrate is extracted from the ore through a series of
crushing, grinding and flotation operations. The mill was
designed to have a throughput capacity of 25,000 tons per
day, although daily throughput of ore has ranged up to
28,500 tons per day.
Thompson Creek Mine
Grinding operations in mill at Thompson Creek Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 10 Annual Repor t 2006
The molybdenum disulfide concentrate produced at
Thompson Creek in 2006 was further processed into a
variety of products containing 16.2 million pounds of
molybdenum.
Thompson Creek is currently in Phase 6 and will soon
begin preparations for Phase 7 of its existing mine plan
which extends to 2014. The Company is developing a new
mine plan based on a re-evaluation of mineral resources
and reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of
US$10 per pound and updated costs. The previous mine
plan had assumed a long-term price of US$5 per pound.
New estimates of mineral resources and reserves are
expected in the near future. Assuming positive results from
a mine re-design study currently underway, the next stage
of development at Thompson Creek will be to widen and
deepen the existing pit.
Electric-powered shovel scoops waste rock onto 200-ton haul truck at Thompson Creek Mine
Thompson Creek mill and conveyor
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 11
The Endako Mine is an open-pit primary molybdenum mine
located near Fraser Lake, 160 kilometres west of Prince
George, British Columbia. The mine is operated as a joint
venture with Blue Pearl holding a 75% interest and Sojitz,
a Japanese company, holding the remaining 25% interest.
The Endako Mine is a fully integrated operation. It includes
a concentrator that processes ore through crushing, grinding
and flotation operations into molybdenum disulfide
concentrate, and a multiple-hearth roasting facility that
converts concentrate into technical molybdenum oxide
(known as tech oxide).
Production at Endako commenced under previous ownership
in 1965 with a plant capacity of 9,000 tonnes per
day. Capacity was subsequently increased to approximately
30,000 tonnes per day. Molybdenum output in
Endako Mine
Ore-hauling truck at Endako Mine
Aerial view of the Endako Mine
Conveyor carrying ore from in-pit crusher at Endako Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 13
2006 totaled 11.4 million pounds (8.6 million pounds to
the account of Thompson Creek Metals Company and
subsequently Blue Pearl).
The mine consists of three pits. The Endako pit, the largest,
is currently being mined, while the Denak East pit and
Denak West pit will subsequently be further mined as part
of the current mine plan extending to 2013.
Endako’s mineral resources and reserves are currently
being re-estimated assuming a long-term molybdenum
price of US$10 per pound and updated costs. The existing
mine plan had assumed a long-term molybdenum price of
US$3.50 per pound. In addition, an engineering firm is
examining the feasibility of constructing a super-pit,
unifying the three existing pits into a massive single pit,
and of increasing mine production to 50,000 tonnes per
day from approximately 30,000 tonnes per day. The study
is expected to be completed by mid-2007.
Processing of ore at Endako Mill
Multiple-hearth roaster at Endako
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 14 Annual Repor t 2006
british columbia
davidson
deposit
smithers
stewart
princerupert
smithers
princegeorge
Endako
Mine
Davidson Deposit
Blue Pearl is earning a 100% interest in the Davidson
Deposit, an underground molybdenum deposit, situated
nine kilometres from Smithers, British Columbia. A feasibility
study on the deposit is currently being conducted and
is expected to be completed during the second quarter of
2007. The study is examining the feasibility of mining 2,000
tonnes of high-grade ore per day from the deposit and
shipping it for processing to the Company’s Endako facility
200 kilometres away, beginning in 2008. A mineral reserve
estimate for this mining plan is expected in the near future.
In the second quarter of 2007, the Company intends to file
an application with the Province of British Columbia for an
Environmental Assessment Certificate.
From 1957 to 1980, Amax Inc. and Climax Molybdenum
undertook extensive exploration activities on the deposit.
In total, 58,000 metres of exploration drilling were completed
along with 2,600 metres of underground excavations,
Major Highway
Rail Line
Airport
Properties
Legend
Davidson Deposit Location Map
Hudson Bay Mountain (on left) near Smithers, British Columbia
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 15
5,120N
5,090N
#143
# 166 # 167
# 165
0.46% MoS 2
27.4m @
0.41% MoS 2 36.5m @
0.37% MoS 2
39.6m @
0.37% MoS 2
48.8m @
0.46% MoS 2
Current drilling (results reported)
1972 drilling
Legend
Elevation (metres above sea level)
1,600m
1,400m
1,200m
1,000m
800m
Davidson
Deposit
Schematic Section looking north
not to scale
Existing Portal
Hudson Bay Mountain
Production Areas
primarily a two-kilometre-long exploration adit driven into
the heart of Hudson Bay Mountain where the deposit lies.
The feasibility study is focusing on a central portion of the
deposit containing an estimated measured and indicated
resource of 6.7 million tonnes grading 0.599% MoS2
(0.36% Mo) at a cut-off grade of 0.44% MoS2, which contains
52.8 million pounds of molybdenum. The highergrade
zone lies within a larger deposit estimated to contain
a measured and indicated mineral resource of 75.3 million
tonnes grading 0.295% MoS2 at a cut-off grade of 0.20%
MoS2. On this basis, the deposit is estimated to have 293.5
million pounds of contained molybdenum. The mineral resource
was estimated by Gary Giroux, P.Eng., who is a
qualified person in accordance with National Instrument
43-101.
The deposit has excellent ground conditions, which will
allow for large stopes amenable to bulk mining techniques.
All indications are that the deposit will be non-acid
generating.
A program of infill drilling on the central portion of the
Davidson Deposit was completed in 2006 and an updated
mineral resource estimate is anticipated in the near future.
The program was designed to provide information for mine
planning and other aspects of the feasibility study.
Exploration drilling on the Lower Zone at Davidson, which
is situated about 250 metres below the main deposit,
continued into 2007.
700 Adit
1066 Adit
Mine Site & Loadout
Davidson Deposit Schematic Section
Drilling activity underground at the Davidson Deposit
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 16 Annual Repor t 2006
Ferromolybdenum processing at Langeloth
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 17
The Langeloth complex, located 40 kilometres (25 miles) west
of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is a world-class facility with a long
history of producing high-quality metallurgical products. The
facility has roasting capacity of 35 million pounds of
molybdenum per year and is currently running at full capacity.
Four multiple-hearth furnaces are used for the conversion of
molybdenum disulfide concentrates into various molybdenum
products used mainly in the steel and chemical industries. The
products include technical molybdenum oxide (known as
tech oxide) in powder or briquettes, pure molybdenum trioxide
and ferromolybdenum. Another two furnaces process spent
catalyst material containing other metals.
Almost half of the molybdenum concentrates processed
at the Langeloth facility come from the Company’s
Thompson Creek Mine. The Company also buys concentrates
from other mining companies to process and sell in
the market and it additionally roasts concentrates on a toll
basis for third-party customers.
The roasters, which operate at temperatures up to 650°C
(1,200°F), convert molybdenum disulfide concentrate (MoS2)
into tech oxide (MoO3) with a sulfur content of less than
0.1%. The roasters yield gases with sulfur dioxide (SO2). For
many years, this gas was considered only a waste which
had to be discharged through a 150-metre (500-foot) tall
stack. However, with the addition of a sulfuric acid plant in
1977, the sulfur dioxide is converted to sulfuric acid (H2SO4),
a byproduct that is sold to industrial customers. As a result
of this pollution-control initiative, sulfur dioxide emissions
for molybdenum processing at the Langeloth complex have
been reduced by more than 99%.
A portion of the tech oxide produced at the Langeloth
complex is converted into a higher oxide grade, known as
pure molybdenum trioxide. The process involves sublimation
using a special electric furnace where tech oxide is
heated until it vaporizes. On cooling, the vaporized oxide
Langeloth Metallurgical Facility
Ferromolybdenum produced at Langeloth Briquettes made of technical molybdenum oxide
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 18 Annual Repor t 2006
returns to the solid state but with virtually none of the
impurities inherent in the tech oxide. This pure molybdenum
trioxide is used for super alloys, chemicals and catalysts.
Some of the tech oxide is further processed into ferromolybdenum,
an alloy consisting of about 60% molybdenum and
40% iron. Ferromolybdenum is preferred by some steel mills
and cast-iron foundries in their manufacturing processes.
The Langeloth facility is the largest ferromolybdenum
producer in North America, the first site to commercially
convert MoS2 concentrates to technical molybdenum
oxide, and the first site to produce pure molybdenum
trioxide by sublimation. The site has 147 acres with a solid
infrastructure to support additional projects.
BLUE PEARL
Langeloth, Endako
North America
Phelps Dodge, Moly Mex
South America
Molymet, Codelco, Xstrata
Europe
Phelps Dodge, Sadaci (Molymet)
China
Jinduicheng, Launchuan, Linghai
Singhorn, Xuzhou Huanyu, Others
World Molybdenum Roasting Capacity
32%
20%
12%
24%
12%
Ferromolybdenum oxidized surface
Langeloth Metallurgical Facility
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 19
Langeloth acid plant
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 20 Annual Repor t 2006
Molybdenum Markets
Molybdenum is used primarily as an alloying agent to
enhance the strength, toughness and corrosion resistance
of steels employed in harsh or high-temperature environments.
Examples include jet and turbine engines, nuclear
power plants, oil and gas pipelines, chemical storage
facilities, offshore drilling rigs, building exteriors, and tools.
Molybdenum is an important alloy in high-quality stainless
steel and is also used in specialty lubricants and as a
catalyst for the removal of sulfur in petroleum as part of the
oil refining process. In most cases, it is difficult to substitute
other elements for molybdenum.
World demand for molybdenum has increased in recent
years as a result of enhanced energy investment and global
economic growth, especially as generated by the rapidly
expanding Chinese economy. In addition, steel manufacturers
have favoured greater use of molybdenum in some
alloys in order to improve performance.
Mine closures for environmental and safety reasons caused
a reduction of molybdenum production in China in 2005
and tightened world supply. Although the situation has
Molybdenum Prices 2003-2007
World Molybdenum Production
30 Jun
2004
31 Dec
2004
30 Jun
2005
31 Dec
2005
30 June
2006
31 Dec
2003
US$/lb Molybdenum Oxide (free market drummed molybdenum oxide)
35
25
15
5
Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Chile
China
Peru
Canada
Other
United States
22% 23%
34%
6%
5%
10%
31 Dec
2006
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 21
been eased somewhat by increased production of molybdenum
as a by-product at some copper mines, supply is
forecast to remain tight for the next several years. While
some copper and primary molybdenum mines outside of
China are expected to increase molybdenum production,
others will incur a decline; there is not expected to be a
major increase in total supply from new or existing mines
until at least 2010. In the meantime, China, even though it
has substantial molybdenum resources, has adopted
export controls and an export tax on molybdenum in order
to manage exports to the world market.
The price of molybdenum, which averaged US$4.50 per
pound between 1994 and 2004, peaked at about US$40
per pound in June 2005 and has since moderated somewhat,
although it remained historically high at approximately
US$25 per pound in 2006. The expected trends in
supply and demand suggest a positive outlook for the
price of molybdenum. Barring a world recession, demand
for molybdenum is expected to continue to grow and, in
the absence of substantial new supply coming from China,
the molybdenum price is expected to remain relatively
strong in the near-term future.
Source: International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) 2006
Stainless Steel
Chemicals
Superalloys
Mo Metals
Cast Iron
Tool and Hi-Speed Steel
Construction Steel
32%
31% 14%
5%
6%
6%
6%
World Molybdenum Demand
2020: +700 M lbs
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Molybdenum
Demand to 2005
Projected Demand
Assumes 4% Growth
Mo Demand (million lbs)
100
400
200
300
500
600
700
Climax Mine
Opens 1918
Industrial Demand for Molybdenum
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 22 Annual Repor t 2006
Blue Pearl has an excellent record of complying with
environmental laws and regulations and is committed to
carrying out its social responsibilities in this regard. In
addition, at both mine sites, the final reclamation obligation
is largely pre-funded to ensure proper completion.
The Company has undertaken a number of initiatives at
its operations to minimize disruption to the environment
and production of waste materials. Below are examples
of such initiatives.
Langeloth Metallurgical Facility
The Langeloth complex has installed special equipment to
reduce air pollution that would be normally generated by
the combustion process. Over 99% of the sulfur dioxide in
the off-gas from the molybdenum roasters is converted to
commercial 94% grade sulfuric acid. Langeloth produced
over 65,000 tons of sulfuric acid in 2006 – all of it sold
to industrial customers. The cleaned roaster gas is then
Social Responsibility, Environment and Recycling
Tanker truck being loaded with sulfuric acid at Langeloth Metallurgical Facility
Water being collected for testing at Endako Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 23
discharged through a 500-foot stack. This excellent gas
cleaning process allows Langeloth to maintain air emissions
at a lower level than required by law.
Langeloth is also involved in an important industrial recycling
program. In 1986, Langeloth began processing in
re-designed roasters a selected range of metal-bearing
materials, such as spent catalysts, filter cakes and
grindings. The roasted products are sold directly to the
steel industry or as a substitute for newly mined metals in
a smelter. There is no discharge water or solid waste from
this operation.
Thompson Creek Mine
As part of an ongoing evaluation of the environmental
impact of mining practices, the Thompson Creek Mine in
the late 1990s identified sulfide-bearing waste material as
having a potential to generate low pH drainage. Mine officials
subsequently developed a program to reduce this
potential. The program consisted of identifying the waste
materials, recovering pyrite from mill tailings and redesigning
waste dump facilities to partition and encapsulate
sulfide-bearing waste material in order to reduce the
potential for such material to impact surface water. In
addition, a pyrite recovery plant was installed to remove
the pyrite from the tailings to prevent reactive sulfidebearing
tailings from being deposited on the surface of
the tailings facility.
Thompson Creek’s commitment to meeting and exceeding
regulatory requirements led the mine staff to initiate Idaho’s
first interagency task force (IATF), a working group comprised
of mine personnel and regulatory agency officials, in
order to create a more efficient process for interagency
review and administration of the mining facility. Thompson
Creek’s commitment to utilize the IATF and the knowledge
gained in that process resulted in the state and federal
agencies adopting the process throughout Idaho.
Endako Mine
Endako’s waste removal and recycling program minimizes
the waste generated and stored at the mine site. About
80% of the water used in the mill is recycled for subsequent
reuse. The mine also supplies more than 100,000
litres a year of waste oil for an off-site oil recycling
program. Tailings ponds and a sulfur dioxide scrubbing
plant ensure that mill waste water and gases are treated
to meet strict government standards before release to the
environment. Since 1990, the mine has conducted a
series of monitoring studies that have shown that the
mine has had minimal impact on wildlife and fish in the
area. Reclamation of disturbed areas is ongoing with the
establishment of a sustainable ecosystem that supports
wildlife as the goal after mine closure.
Endako has demonstrated its involvement with the community
through the establishment of a liaison committee
that acts as a forum for information exchange regarding
environmental issues.
Water quality monitoring at Thompson Creek Mine
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 24 Annual Repor t 2006
Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Years ended December 31, 2006 and 2005
(US dollars in thousands, except per share and per pound amounts, unless otherwise indicated)
This discussion and analysis should be read in conjunction with the Corporation’s consolidated financial statements and
related notes thereto for the years ended December 31, 2006 and 2005 which were prepared in accordance with Canadian
generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are expressed in US dollars unless otherwise indicated.
Additional information on the Corporation is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
Selected Annual Information (Note 2)
(US$ in thousands, except per share amounts)
2006 2005 2004
(Note 1)
Molybdenum sold (000’s lb) 5,737 - -
Revenue $ 150,843 $ - $ -
Cost of sales $ 145,099 $ - $ -
Income from mining operations $ 5,744 $ - $ -
Net (loss) income $ (20,643) $ (4,113) $ 265
Income (loss) per share
– basic and diluted $ (0.36) $ (0.13) $ 0.02
Cash flow from operating activities $ 75,444 $ (2,723) $ 408
Cash and cash equivalents $ 98,059 $ 6,915 $ 631
Working capital $ 180,063 $ 5,859 $ 615
Total assets $ 935,744 $ 8,397 $ 809
Total long term debt $ 411,073 $ - $ -
Shareholders’ equity $ 224,051 $ 6,856 $ 712
Shares outstanding at December 31 (000’s) 100,528 43,079 23,259
Note 1 - 2004 data is for the 6 month period ended December 31, 2004. The Corporation changed its year end effective at
December 31, 2004.
Note 2 – The financial information included in the table above, excluding the molybdenum sold (000’s lb) was extracted from
the Corporation’s audited financial statements for the years noted.
Introd uction
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (“Blue Pearl” or the “Corporation”) acquired Thompson Creek Metals Company (“TCMC” or “Thompson
Creek”) on October 26, 2006. TCMC is the fifth-largest molybdenum producer in the world and owns the Thompson Creek
mine and concentrator in Idaho, the Langeloth metallurgical facility in Pennsylvania and a 75% joint venture interest in the
Endako mine, concentrator and roaster in British Columbia. This acquisition transformed the Corporation into a significant
metal producer with vertically integrated mining, milling and processing operations.
Blue Pearl paid $575,000 on closing for Thompson Creek and $61,529 on subsequent collection of certain TCMC receivables.
The Corporation is also responsible for a contingent payment to the former shareholders of Thompson Creek that is based
on the average price of molybdenum in each of 2007, 2008 and 2009. If the average price of molybdenum is between $15
and $25 per pound for 2007, the Corporation will be required to make a contingent payment of between $50,000 and
$100,000 in early 2008. A similar calculation is made for 2008 regarding a contingent payment to be made in early 2009.
However, this payment is reduced by the amount of the first payment. The total of the two payments cannot exceed
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 25
$100,000. If the average price of molybdenum exceeds $15 per pound in 2009, then the Corporation will be required to make
a final contingent payment of $25,000 in early 2010.
The purchase price, together with closing costs of approximately $179, has been financed through:
a) On the date of the close, the Corporation issued debt as follows:
i. $340,000 variable rate first lien senior secured amortizing term loan bearing interest at LIBOR plus 475 basis points. This
loan matures on October 26, 2012.
ii. $22,500 variable rate first lien senior secured revolving line of credit bearing interest at LIBOR plus 475 basis points.
This line of credit matures on October 26, 2011.
iii. $61,855 second lien senior secured term loan bearing interest at LIBOR plus 1,000 basis points. This loan matures on
April 26, 2013. This loan does not amortize. As described in Note 21 of the Corporation’s financial statements, this loan
was repaid in full in March 2007.
b) On October 26, 2006, the Corporation issued 41,860,000 shares of common stock and 20,930,000 warrants for net
proceeds of $191,877 after underwriting fees and other issuing costs. Each whole common share purchase warrant
entitles the holder to purchase one common share at Cdn$9.00 per share until October 23, 2011.
c) On the closing date, a former shareholder of Thompson Creek purchased, through a private placement, 7,227,182 shares
of common stock and 3,613,591 warrants for proceeds of $35,352. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one
common share at Cdn$9.00 per share until October 23, 2011.
The Corporation has consolidated the results of operations from the acquisition date forward. The Corporation has accounted
for this acquisition as a purchase business combination with the Corporation as the acquirer. The purchase price has been
allocated to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed based on the estimated fair values on the acquisition date. Estimated
fair values will be based on independent appraisals, discounted cash flows, quoted market prices and estimates made by
management. To the extent that the purchase price exceeds the fair value of the net identifiable tangible and intangible
assets, the Corporation has recorded goodwill.
The consolidated balance sheet at acquisition is as presented below. The consolidated balance sheet may differ from the
consolidated balance sheet determined after the completion of the valuation process. This allocation of the purchase price
is preliminary and is based on management’s estimate of the fair value of the assets and liabilities acquired. The final fairvalue
estimate could be materially different from that currently being used. Management is continuing to assess the estimated
fair value for certain assets and liabilities acquired including property, plant and equipment, inventories, asset retirement
obligations, future income taxes and intangible assets which valuations are less advanced due to the inherent complexities
associated with valuations.
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 26 Annual Repor t 2006
Preliminary Purchase Price Allocation
Assets
Cash $ 36,280
Property, plant and equipment 490,032
Product inventory 195,883
Material and supplies inventory 26,503
Accounts receivable 83,733
Reclamation deposits 22,727
Other assets 11,429
Goodwill 46,989
913,576
Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 25,927
Long term debt 9,585
Asset retirement obligation 25,651
Future tax liability 197,119
Sales contract liability 11,175
Other liabilities 7,411
276,868
Net assets acquired $ 636,708
Purchase price payment
Paid on closing $ 575,000
Paid subsequent to closing 61,529
Costs 179
$ 636,708
Blue Pearl is developing the Davidson molybdenum property (“Davidson Property”) in British Columbia. A feasibility study
and permitting are currently underway. Production is expected from the Davidson mine in 2008 and synergies are expected
by using the newly acquired Endako facility, which is within trucking distance, to process Davidson ore.
Description of Operations
The key statistics are presented in the table below. These amounts include the TCMC operations for the post-acquisition
period October 26, 2006 to December 31, 2006, the period that the Corporation owned these operations. The Canadian
operations reflect the Corporation’s 75% ownership in the Endako Mine. As the Corporation had no operations in 2005, a
comparative period has not been presented.
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 27
2006
(Unaudited)
Key Statistics
US Canadian
Operations Operations Total
Molybdenum sold (000’s lb) 3,992 1,745 5,737
Molybdenum produced (000’s lbs) (Note 1) 2,473 1,373 3,846
Revenue ($/lb) $ 26.40 $ 24.23 $ 25.74
Operating expenses ($/lb Mo sold)
Inventory purchase price adjustment (note 3) $ 12.10 $ 11.81 $ 12.02
Other operating $ 14.53 $ 6.99 $ 12.23
Total $ 26.63 $ 18.80 $ 24.25
Mining
Ore (000’s tonnes) 899 1,320 2,219
Waste (000’s tonnes) 3,936 906 4,842
Total (000’s tonnes) 4,835 2,226 7,061
Strip ratio 4.38 0.69 2.18
Milling (000’s tonnes) 883 1,129 2,012
Grade (% molybdenum) 0.14 0.06 0.10
Recovery (%) 90.0 75.7 82.0
Production costs ($/ lb) (Note 2) $ 5.83 $ 7.30 6.28
Revenue from molybdenum sales $ 105,401 $ 42,275 $ 147,676
Operating Expenses
Inventory purchase price adjustment (note 3) $ 48,324 $ 20,608 $ 68,932
Other operating expenses $ 57,990 $ 12,193 $ 70,183
Total $ 106,314 $ 32,801 $ 139,115
Note 1 – These amounts reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include
molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the Corporation.
Note 2 – These costs reflect production costs for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.
Note 3 – See Income Statement section of this Management’s Discussion and Analysis for explanation.
Unit ed Stat es Operations
The Corporation’s Thompson Creek mine and concentrator are located near Challis, in central Idaho. Mining is done by
conventional open pit methods utilizing electric-powered shovels and 200-ton haul trucks. The mine has produced over 150
million pounds of molybdenum since commencement in 1983. The property covers 21,000 acres with all the necessary
permits, water, power, easements and rights-of-way to allow operations. The concentrator has a capacity of 28,500 tons per
day and operates with a crusher, SAG mill, ball mill and flotation circuit. The concentrator averages approximately 90%
recovery and produces concentrate averaging 57% molybdenum by weight.
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 28 Annual Repor t 2006
The molybdenum disulfide concentrate produced at Thompson Creek Mine during the calendar year 2006 was processed
into a variety of products containing 16.2 million pounds of molybdenum. Most of the concentrate is shipped by truck to the
Langeloth processing facility. Approximately 10% of the concentrate is upgraded at the mine site to produce high grade
molybdenum.
The Langeloth plant, located near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, was originally constructed in 1924 and has undergone multiple
expansions and renovations. Roasting capacity is approximately 35 million pounds per year. It consists of six multi-hearth
roasters ranging in size from 16 to 21 feet in diameter. Four roasters process molybdenum disulfide to produce molybdenum
oxide and ferromolybdenum. The Thompson Creek Mine output provides much of the feed source for these roasters. The
balance of the capacity is filled with third party purchases and toll roasting of molybdenum disulfide. Two roasters are
committed to toll roasting recycled nickel-cobalt containing catalyst material derived primarily from the chemical industry.
The Langeloth facility’s air emissions permit expired on December 31, 2006. The renewal application was submitted in March
2006. The Langeloth facility has a water treatment plant to control heavy metals to comply with water discharge regulations.
Renewal for the water discharge permit was applied for in 1992 and is still pending. The facility is operating under the
existing air and water permits, as allowed under applicable law, until new permits are issued.
Canadian Operations
The Corporation’s Canadian operations are conducted through a 75% interest in the Endako open-pit mine, concentrator and
roaster which is located near Fraser Lake, British Columbia. This mining operation commenced production in 1965. The mine
property consists of 374 claims, including 25 mineral leases, covering 7,741 hectares and has the necessary permits and
ancillary facilities to allow operations. The infrastructure includes a 30,000 tonnes per day concentrator and a 14,000 to 16,000
kilogram per day multiple-hearth roaster that converts molybdenum sulfide concentrate into technical molybdenum oxide
(known as tech oxide). Total molybdenum production at the Endako mine in calendar year 2006 was 11.5 million pounds.
Mark ets
Blue Pearl produces primarily molybdenum products. The products produced cover most of the range of molybdenum
products available in the market.
Molybdenum is added to iron and steel in the manufacturing process to strengthen it and increase its anti-corrosive
characteristics. It is an important ingredient in high-performance stainless steel and other alloys. Molybdenum is also used
in chemical products such as catalysts, lubricants and pigments, and as a catalyst to reduce sulfur in petroleum refining.
Molybdenum demand has grown at an average of approximately 4% a year over the last 20 years and the world consumption
is now in excess of 400 million pounds annually. Demand is being driven by industries such as aircraft manufacturing,
shipbuilding, the military and especially oil and gas, where demand for anti-corrosive steel is growing and refineries require
higher amounts of molybdenum catalyst. Given expectations of a strong growth in energy investments in the coming years
and a continuation of the global economic expansion, especially in China, the demand for molybdenum is likely to continue
to grow.
Molybdenum supply is expected to be constrained over the medium term. Approximately 60% of the world’s molybdenum
production comes from by-product production at copper mines. While some of these mines are expecting to increase
molybdenum production in the coming years, others have forecast lower production. Many have been mining areas of higher
grade molybdenum within their mines over the last two years to take advantage of the recent higher molybdenum prices.
However, these mines are unable to indefinitely maintain the molybdenum high-grading activities due to the nature of their
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 29
ore bodies. Other operators have announced construction of molybdenum recovery circuits that will add small amounts to
the supply. One major operator has announced a mine re-opening but it is not expected to start producing until 2009 at the
earliest. Another potential additional source of molybdenum is from new western world mine construction. Most of the
significant deposits are held by junior mining companies. These companies will require large financings, relative to their
current capital base, that may be difficult to obtain especially due to the lack of forward markets to hedge the molybdenum
price. Should the financing be obtained, the time required to complete construction will be several years.
China is a large producer and, increasingly, a large consumer of molybdenum and has been a major influence on molybdenum
pricing in the last decade. China has significant molybdenum resources, produces more than 20% of the world’s annual
supply, and in the past has been a major exporter of molybdenum. But in the past two years, molybdenum exports from
China have fallen as a result of increasing internal consumption and of government intervention in 2005 to close a number
of smaller mines due to safety and environmental concerns. In 2006, in an apparent attempt to manage exports of
molybdenum, the Chinese government imposed export duties on molybdenum and announced a program of export licensing
that allows molybdenum exports only by larger companies. The Chinese government in early 2007 was also considering the
imposition of export quotas for molybdenum.
The price of molybdenum, which averaged $4.50 per pound between 1994 and 2004, peaked at $40 per pound in June 2005
and has since moderated somewhat. In 2006, the average price of molybdenum remained strong at approximately $25 per
pound. The expected trends in supply and demand suggest a positive near-term outlook for the price of molybdenum.
Barring a world recession, demand for molybdenum is expected to continue to grow. In the absence of new supply coming
from China and given numerous constraints on production growth outside of China, the price of molybdenum is expected to
remain relatively strong in the near-term future.
Financial Review
Blue Pearl purchased TCMC on October 26, 2006 and consolidated its operating results for the period October 26 to
December 31, 2006. The TCMC operations included the Thompson Creek mine, the Langeloth Metallurgical Facility and
75% of the Endako Mine Joint Venture. Prior to the TCMC purchase, Blue Pearl mining assets were limited to the Davidson
Property which is in the feasibility study and permitting stage.
Incom e Stat ement
The net loss for the year ended December 31, 2006 was $20,643 or $0.36 per share, compared to a net loss of $4,113, or
$0.13 per share in 2005.
Revenues in 2006 were mainly derived from the sale of molybdenum products by TCMC. During the period October 26 to
December 31, after the TCMC acquisition was completed, 5,737,000 pounds of molybdenum were sold at an average realized
price of $25.74 per pound. TCMC also generated revenue of $3,167 from toll roasting third party molybdenum products and
from recovering metals in spent catalyst. No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in 2005 as it was in the development stage.
Cost of sales in 2006, which were incurred by TCMC during the period October 26 to December 31, totaled $145,099. These
expenses include mining, processing and administration at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines, processing of Thompson
Creek ore at the Langeloth plant, costs to purchase partially finished molybdenum products from third parties for roasting at
the Langeloth plant and costs related to tolling third party molybdenum and catalysts at Langeloth.
Included in the operating expenses is $68,932 related to the inventory portion of the Thompson Creek purchase price
adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of inventory on the acquisition date and this inventory was deemed to be
purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an uplift of inventory costs of $98,531 over the
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 30 Annual Repor t 2006
original book value prior to the acquisition. The table below shows the fair value adjustment allocated to inventory on
acquisition, the amount included in operating expenses in 2006 and the amount that remains as part of the inventory costs
at December 31, 2006. The remaining inventory purchase price adjustment at December 31, 2006 of $29,599 is expected to
be charged to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory is sold.
Thompson Creek Purchase Price Adjustment Allocated to Inventory:
Inventory increase from allocation at October 25, 2006 $ 98,531
Less: portion of inventory increase
charged to operating expenses in 2006 68,932
Inventory increase remaining at December 31, 2006 $ 29,599
Blue Pearl had no cost of sales in 2005 as it was a development stage company.
General and administrative expense increased by $3,098 in 2006 compared to 2005 due to the increased activities associated
with the TCMC purchase in October 2006.
Exploration and development expense increased $6,322 in 2006 as compared to 2005 primarily as the Corporation continues
to proceed with the Davidson property. The increased costs are for the increased permitting and feasibility work done for the
Davidson project.
Interest income increased by $1,044 in 2006 as the Corporation had more cash from the equity financing related to the
purchase, cash acquired with TCMC and cash generated from the TCMC operations.
Interest expense and finance fees in 2006 resulted from the long-term debt borrowed to finance the TCMC acquisition. Stock
based compensation increased $14,113 in 2006 as options were granted to TCMC management and senior operations
personnel in addition to certain Blue Pearl staff.
Cash Flows
Cash from operating activities provided $75,444 in 2006 and required $2,723 in 2005. The increased cash flow was mainly
a result of the TCMC acquisition in October 2006 as the Corporation sold the inventory acquired. The 2006 loss of $20,643
included non-cash charges such as stock-based compensation of $14,547 and depreciation and amortization of $4,718
offset by the future tax recovery. Significant changes to the non-cash working capital were a reduction in inventory of
$65,421, and increased accounts payables and accrued liabilities of $22,802 and income taxes payable of $19,762.
Investing activities required $605,315 in 2006 which was almost entirely used to purchase TCMC. In 2005 investing activities
required $894 mostly for the acquisition of the Davidson Property.
Financing activities generated $621,516 in 2006. The Corporation issued 57,449,048 shares and 25,319,541 warrants to
raise $233,701 mainly through a prospectus offering completed in connection with the TCMC purchase. Long term debt of
$401,855 was borrowed to partially finance the TCMC purchase and finance fees of $13,673 were incurred to raise this debt.
In 2005, equity issues raised $9,822 that was used to fund the Davidson Project and provide working capital.
Liquidit y and Capital Reso urc es
During 2006, cash and cash equivalents increased by $91,144 to $98,059 at December 31. The working capital acquired as
part of the financing of the TCMC acquisition and the operating cash flow for the 67 days that Blue Pearl owned TCMC were
the main reasons for the increase in cash.
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. Annual Repor t 2006 31
The Corporation also has a $22,500 revolving credit facility available as part of the long term debt negotiated during the TCMC
acquisition. The revolving credit facility matures October 26, 2011 and bears interest on outstanding balances of LIBOR plus
475 basis points. At December 31, 2006, the full amount of the revolving credit facility was available to be used.
In 2007, the Corporation is expecting to fund capital expenditures of approximately $15,000, scheduled principal repayments
of approximately $78,000, interest payments of approximately $36,000, and Davidson feasibility and permitting costs of
approximately $5,000. In January 2008, Blue Pearl may be required to make a contingent payment to the TCMC vendors of
$50,000 to $100,000 if the average market price of molybdenum is between $15 and $25 per pound for 2007. If the average
price is less than $15 per pound, then no payment is required in 2008.
In addition to the above amounts, financing for the Davidson Project construction will be required by 2008. The Davidson
feasibility study is not completed so the amount required is unknown but is estimated by management to be approximately
$50,000 to $60,000. The Corporation is considering options to finance this project that may include a joint venture
arrangement. The Corporation’s loan facility restricts certain cash from being used for Davidson construction. At December
31, 2006 the Corporation has more than $40,000 that could be used for Davidson construction.
Outlook
The price of molybdenum on world markets is the single most important variable to cash flow and profitability for the
Corporation. The strong prices, in the $24 to $30 range, realized by the Corporation since TCMC was acquired provided
sufficient cash flow such that the Corporation was able to prepay $61,855 of the long-term debt, along with a prepayment
premium of $2,474, in March 2007 and thus reduce future interest expense. The debt prepaid was the highest interest rate
portion and was prepaid after less than five months outstanding. Management expects that molybdenum prices will remain
strong in the medium term.
Molybdenum production in 2007 is expected to be 12.8 million pounds from the Thompson Creek Mine at a cost of $8.50
and 8.5 million pounds at a cost of $6.65 from the Corporation’s 75% share of the Endako Mine. These Thompson Creek
Mine costs will be high in 2007 due to costs from acceleration of waste stripping leading into the next phase of the ore body
and lower grade ore to be mined in the initial part of this phase. The Thompson Creek Mine has moved to continuous
operations in the mill to process sufficient ore to fulfill these plans.
This production profile and the strong sales prices are expected to allow the Corporation to meet its cash requirements for
operations, capital expenditures, debt payments and contingent payment during 2007. One of the Corporation’s goals is to
reduce its long-term debt. The remaining debt can be prepaid without penalty and if prices remain sufficiently strong then
debt payments will be made above the required minimum amounts.
Both the Thompson Creek Mine and the Endako Mine are developing new plans based on a re-evaluation of mineral
resources and reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of US$10 per pound and with updated costs. Previous
mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and $3.50 per pound at Endako. The new
plans are expected to increase mineral reserves and mine life at both operations when they are completed in 2007.
The Davidson Deposit, which is Canada’s largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit, is important to the Corporation’s future
as it represents an opportunity for organic growth at a low capital cost. The deposit’s high-grade core is easily accessible
with minimal impact to the environment. A feasibility study is currently being conducted by Hatch Ltd. and is expected to be
completed during the second quarter of 2007. The study is examining the feasibility of mining 2,000 tonnes of high-grade
ore per day from the deposit and shipping the ore to the Endako facility 200 kilometers away for processing. The Corporation
expects positive results from the feasibility study and from the application for environmental permitting, which will soon be
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. 32 Annual Repor t 2006
submitted to the provincial authorities for approval. If mining at Davidson begins as expected in late 2008, it will result in
significant increase in the Corporation’s overall annual molybdenum production.
Relat ed Part y Transactions
Sojitz Moly Resources, Inc. (“Sojitz”) owns 25% of the Endako Mine Joint Venture and therefore is a related party. The
Corporation’s sales to Sojitz during the post acquisition period of October 26 to December 31, 2006 were $21,106. Sojitz
also receives 1% commission on all Endako Mine sales.
Office administration fees of $287 (2005 - $245) were incurred for rent and various office services provided by Glencairn Gold
Corporation (“Glencairn”) which is related through certain common directors and officers. Included in accounts payable at
December 31, 2006 is $31 (2005 - $24) owing to this related party. The office services agreement with Glencairn was
terminated at the end of February 2007.
Commitm ents and Contin genci es
As discussed above, in connection with the acquisition of TCMC, the Corporation entered into the First Lien Senior Secured
and Second Lien Senior Secured loan agreements. The First Lien Senior Secured loan requires quarterly principal payments.
In addition to the regular principal payments, the Corporation is required to make additional principal payments upon the
issuance of any new equity after the acquisition of TCMC. This agreement requires additional principal repayments each
year if cash flows, as defined in the loan agreement, in the year exceed the operating requirements of the Corporation. This
loan is scheduled to matur

[Firsteven]

Having noticed recently that Blue Pearl (Endako upgrade news) & Leeward Capital (Kaiser Report) seem to be using a 0.02% Mo cut-off (c/o) grade in their estimates (the industry standard is and has always been 0.04% c/o) I am now recieving questions regarding Adanac Molybdenum's using of 0.04% Mo cut-off grade and what it would mean to Adanac "IF" they used a cut-off grade of 0.02% as opposed to the 0.04% c/o they currently use as a standard for future production.

In a nutshell if Adanac used a c/o (cut-off) grade of 0.02% Mo (as proven in recent 2007 Golder Associates, NI-43-101 report linked below) this is what the difference would mean for Measured, Indicated (M&I) and Inferred (Inf) totals of Molybdenum pounds in the ground.

At .04% c/o (cut-off) Adanac has a 2007 NI-43-101 total of 295,699,000 lbs (M&I) Mo, w/ an additional 29,730,000 lbs (Inf) Mo. At 0.02% Mo c/0 (cut-off) Adanac has a NI-43-101 total of 442,290,000 lbs Mo (M&I) w/ an additional 95,759,000 lbs (Inf).

At a standard of 0.02% Mo c/o (cut-off) recently used by Blue Pearl Endako & Leeward Capital, Adanac now would have a (NI-43-101 standard) grand total of 538,049,000 lbs (M&I + Inf) of in ground Molybdenum.

* At a c/o grade of 0.02% Mo & $25.00 p/lb Mo this represents an in ground, grand total valuation of $13,451,225,000.00

* At a c/o grade of o.o4% Mo & $25.00 p/lb Mo this represents an in ground grand total valuation of $8,135,725,000.00

*NOTE* Adanac Mineral Resource Estimate from Golder Associates Ltd.("Golder") prepared in accordance with the requirements described in National Instruments 43-101 "Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Project".
http://www.adanacmoly.com/adanac_news_detail.php?newsid=138

*As a consultant to Adanac Molybdenum Corp; I may be viewed as somewhat biased towards Adanac Molybdenum, but in this capacity and from over two years of very extensive Molybdenum Research & Editorials I am also paying alot closer attention than most to PROVEN realities in the Moly sector as opposed to all the new hype coming down the pike currently from old & new grassroots Moly plays. The massive influx of new Moly projects in early stages currently is staggering and I would impress upon longer term investors to do their own extensive due diligence from all angles....KR

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…


Ab 33 Min. u. 40 Sec.


Wednesday, April 18, 2007 12:30 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
Canadian Equities & Alternative Investing
Veronika Hirsch, chief investment officer, BluMont Capital



Recommendation: Comment
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. BLE-T

Molybdenum is a very volatile mental, so you have to be comfortable with that. Reviewing the resources and mining plan on all 3 projects. Announced a larger reserve on one. More news to come. Stock has done well, so it will take a breather. Fantastic long-term story.

[CaptainBizeps]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.888.503 von Firsteven am 18.04.07 21:55:10

Danke für deinen Einsatz hier.
Nur mal eines, solche Sachen wie den AR solltes die lieber nur verlinken, das hier im Forum bei der versauten Formatierung zu lesen gibt bloß Augenkrebs. Kleine News Absätze sind ja OK aber alles großere, gerade wenn mal Tabellen usw. drin auftauchen, sollten nur verlinkt werden.

[chartex]

Blue Pearl hat auf seiner Homepage eine neue Präsentation eingestellt. Darin wird erstmals ein Vergleich angestellt zwischen Blue Pearl und der chinesischen Moly-Mine, welche in diesen Tagen an die Börse gebracht wird.

Die aus der Grafik ersichtlichen Zahlen zeigen ein beeindruckendes Bild zugunsten von Blue Pearl:

Blue Pearl erwirtschaftete 2006 Einnahmen in Höhe von 2,25 Mio US-$ pro Tag
China Moybdenum erwirtschaftete 2006 Einnahmen in Höhe von 1,34 Mio US-$ pro Tag

Blue Pearl erwirtschaftete 2006 einen Cash-Flow von 1,1 Mio US-$ pro Tag
China Molybdenum erwirtschaftete 2006 einen Cash-Flow von 0,46 Mio US-$ pro Tag

Blue Pearl hat eine Marktkapitalisierung von 1,5 Milliarden US-$
China Molybdenum hat eine Marktkapitalisierung von 3,1 bis 4,2 Milliarden US-$ (abhängig vom Preis der IPO)

Anmerkungen:
Als Cash Flow bezeichnet man den zahlungswirksamen finanziellen Überschuß einer Periode (frei übersetzt: Rohgewinn).
Als Marktkapitalisierung bezeichnet man den Wert, welchen alle Aktien des Unternehmens zusammengerechnet haben, also Aktienkurs x Anzahl der Aktien.
Die Zahlen von Blue Pearl sind eine Hochrechnung aus den letzten 67 Tagen des Jahres seit der Übernahme der produzierenden Minengesellschaft Thompson Creek.
Die Marktkapitalisierung von China Molybdenum wird sich aus dem noch genau festzusetzenden Preis der IPO ergeben.

Blue Pearl hat somit Einnahmen, die um 68% höher sind und einen Rohgewinn der um 139% höher ist.
Hingegen ist die Marktkapitalisierung von China Molybdenunm um 106% bis 180% (je nach Preis der IPO) höher als bei Blue Pearl.

Um einen fairen Gleichstand der Aktienkurse zu erreichen (gleiches KGV), müsste der Kurs der Blue-Pearl-Aktie also noch um 400% bis 670% steigen.

Dies ist ein weiterer Hinweis, wie unterbewertet die Aktien von Blue Pearl immer noch sind, und welches Steigerungspotential vorhanden ist.




Rechenweg:
China Molybdenum hat einen täglichen Cash-Flow von 0,46 Mio $, das ergibt einen Jahres-Cash-Flow von 0,46 x 365 = 167,9 Mio $.
Bezogen auf die Marktkapitalisierung ergibt sich 3100 Mio $ : 167,9 Mio $ = 18,46.

Blue Pearl hat einen täglichen Cash-Flow von 1,1 Mio $, das ergibt einen Jahres-Cash-Flow von 1,1 x 365 = 401,5 Mio $. Bei einem KGV wie oben, also 18,46 ergäbe sich dann eine Marktkapitalisierung von 401,5 x 18,46 = 7411 Mio $. Im Verhältnis zur oben angegebenen Marktkapitalisierung von 1500 Mio $ müsste die Blue-Pearl-Aktie also noch 394% steigen (bis zum oberen Wert der China-Molybdenum-Marktkapitalisierung sind es sogar 670%).

chartex

[Firsteven]

Neuer Short-Bestand ist da!

Symbol Report Date Volume Change
BLE - T 2007-04-15 3,361,556 +335,509


Wahnsinn!!! Und das bei diesem Kurs!

[Firsteven]

Country Garden and Moly lock $625b

PrudenceHoand WinniePang

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Mainland property developer Country Garden Holdings, which will make its trading debut tomorrow, priced its shares at HK$5.38 - the top end of the indicative price range - after it tied up HK$329 billion in its retail tranche during its public offering, the second largest lock-up in history.
Meanwhile, China Molybdenum, which closed its offering Wednesday, is also likely to price its IPO at the high end of the price range after it was oversubscribed about 400 times in its retail tranche, market sources said.

China Moly locked up HK$296 billion, the third-highest total after Country Garden. The largest lock-up of funds occurred when Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398), which listed October 27 last year, tied up HK$416 billion.

As Country Garden was 255 times oversubscribed in its retail tranche, each subscriber will not be able to get one lot or 1,000 shares as the probability of being allotted 1,000 shares is only 25 percent, according to the announcement. Investors need to subscribe for 150,000 shares to ensure one lot.

The company received 680,000 application forms. The largest 19 subscription retail investors each subscribed for 120 million shares. Because the retail subscription was more than 100 times covered, the allotment will be raised to 20 percent of the total available shares, from 10 percent.

The overwhelming response was partly due to the support of tycoons. Henderson Land (0012) chairman Lee Shau-kee and New World Development (0017) chairman Cheng Yu-tung, as well as CITIC Pacific (0267), Singapore's state-run investment arm Temasek Holdings and Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok Hock-nien, all agreed to buy shares worth HK$3.5 billion. The Guangdong-based developer will raise HK$12.9 billion with the sale of 2.4 billion shares, making it the biggest IPO for a Chinese property developer. Market watchers believe the share price of the new listing may rise more than 30 percent on debut.

The largest mainland molybdenum miner, China Moly, also received a notable response, being covered 200 times in its international tranche. The retail portion was 400 times covered, locking up HK$296 billion. "The response was hot, and it's probable the shares will be priced at the high end," a source said. As the retail subscription was more than 100 times covered, the allotment will be raised to 50 percent of the total available shares, from 10 percent.

China Moly aimed to sell 1.08 billion new shares at HK$5 to HK$6.80 apiece, allowing the Luoyang-based miner to raise up to HK$7.34 billion in the IPO. The indicative range valued the company at between 11 and 14 times earnings. Morgan Stanley and UBS are the sponsors of the deal.

Another eye-catching listing candidate, China CITIC Bank, also received a massive response from international investors. Its institutional tranche was nearly 50 times oversubscribed for its HK$42.1 billion IPO, one source said.

The oversubscription breaks the record set by ICBC, whose institutional tranche was 40 times covered before the lender's October 27 Hong Kong and Shanghai dual listing.

Beijing-based CITIC Bank, which will close subscriptions today, is offering 4.89 billion H shares in an indicative range between HK$5.06 and HK$5.86.

Due to strong demand, it may be hard for each retail subscriber to get one lot, said China International Capital Corporation, one of the bookrunners.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=2&art_i…

[Firsteven]

Lifted from the qua board..originally posted by wild turkey 1...........
Global Commodity Price Boom May Last Decades Longer, RBA Says
By Hans van Leeuwen

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging economies' demand for resources may sustain high commodity prices for several decades, Australia's central bank said.

While China's appetite for commodities has prompted mining and energy companies to expand production, which may dampen prices, that effect will be countered by rising demand, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a report in its monthly bulletin, released in Sydney today.

A continued commodity-price boom would stoke economic growth in Australia, the world's largest exporter of iron ore and coal. The economy is now in its 16th straight year of expansion, which was last year fueled by an investment surge at mining and energy companies including BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Woodside Petroleum Ltd.

``While increased supply will exert some dampening influence on prices, the rapid growth in world demand for metals and other resources appears to be showing little sign of abating,'' the Reserve Bank said.

``There are good reasons to believe that strong demand, from emerging economies in particular, may continue for several decades.''

China-led demand for metals, minerals and energy has stoked one of the largest and fastest increases in commodity prices of the past century, matched only by the 1930s and 1970s, the bank said.

The Reserve Bank's currency-adjusted index of commodity prices was at a record in March, and has risen 84 percent in the past four years, led by a 205 percent increase in base-metal prices.

To contact the reporter on this story: Hans van Leeuwen in Sydney at [e-mail] .

Last Updated: April 18, 2007 21:56 EDT

[Firsteven]

LEONARD ZEHR
Thursday, April 19, 2007
High flying molybdenum miner Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. is getting more backing from UBS Securities, which raised the target price to $19.50 from $16 on continued strength in moly prices.
The stock, which has come from a 52-week low of $1.70, closed at $16.90 on the TSX Wednesday.

Analyst Brian MacArthur has “modestly increased” his forecast for moly prices next year, which should lift Blue Pearl's profit to $2.12 a share (U.S.) from an earlier estimate of $2.

“UBS continues to expect prices to remain well supported over the next couple of years given strong steel related demand and production constraints related to Chinese production problems and export regulation,” he writes.

Just on BNN ,says moly prices well supported for next couple years.UPS BLE FORCAST TO 19.50.I'm sure they will up that price in the near future

http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?stat_num…


Stockhouse:

From the Blue Pearl Website:
2006 Revenues
Blue Pearl: US$ 2.25 mln per day
China Molybdenum: US$ 1.34 mln per day

2006 Cash flow from operating activities
Blue Pearl: US$ 1.1 mln per day
China Molybdenum: US$ 0,46 per day

Market capitalization
Blue Pearl: US$ 1.5 bln
China Molybdenum: US$ 3.1 - $ 4.2 bln

A long way to go for the BLE-Share-Price to get a similar value (400% - 670%).

Hodson is right when he says: BLE-Share is cheap

http://www.bluepearl.ca/2007-04-17_presentation/slide_39.HTM

[Firsteven]

DJ MARKET TALK: China Molybdenum Has More Upside Vs CITIC Bk-KGI Apr 17, 2007 12:35

1225 [Dow Jones] Both CITIC Bank (0998.HK [News / Quote]), China Molybdenum (3993.HK [News / Quote]) IPOs get strong response; The Standard reports investors swamped retail offer of CITIC Bank, soaking up nearly 70% of margin financing offered by brokers in first day, while China Molybdenum also popular. KGI Asia\' Ben Kwong advises investors to go for China Molybdenum for potentially higher returns; \'we\'re forecasting that China Molybdenum may surge more than 40% on trading debut ; CITIC Bank may only rise 10-20%.\' China Molybdenum\'s retail offer stops at noon tomorrow, CITIC Bank at noon Thursday.(RLI) Contact us in Hong Kong. 852 2802 7002; [e-mail]
http://www.dhsec.com/NewsDetail.asp?storyid=e-20070417dn0001…

[Firsteven]

China Moly gears for 729m yuan expansion
27/03/2007

Listing candidate China Molybdenum, the largest molybdenum miner in China, plans to invest 729 million yuan (HK$736.7 million) this year to expand its molybdenum downstream processing plants.

In order to lure investors, the Luoyang-based company is expected to pay 30 percent of its profits as shareholder dividends, said a report by UBS, one of the sponsors of the initial public offering.

According to media reports, China Moly\'s US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) offer will receive support from major investors, including tycoons Li Ka-shing, Lee Shau-kee and Cheng Yu-tung, as well as Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. UBS and Morgan Stanley are handling the deal.

Morgan Stanley said the fair valuation of China Moly should fall between 10 and 15 times price to 2007 earnings, compared with metal producer Hunan Nonferrous Metal Corp\'s (2626) 15 times.

China Moly\'s open-pit Sandaozhuang mine is one of the world\'s largest molybdenum mines with an estimated mine life of 46 years.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company will post a net profit of 2.17 billion yuan this year, a 43 percent increase from last year.

Molybdenum, a transition metal, is used in high-strength alloys and in high-temperature steels. It is also used in oil pipelines, aircraft and missile parts.

Pigments are used in paints, inks, plastics and rubber materials.

UBS forecasts the average price for molybdenum will be US$22.50 per pound this year, from a peak average of US$33.90 in 2005 and US$25.11 in 2006.

Each 1 percent change in price could lead to 2.2 percent change in the firm\'s 2007 earnings.

The company started producing molybdenum downstream products in the second half of last year following an aggressive capital expansion of 618 million yuan in 2005 and 788 million yuan last year.
http://www.finance.thestandard.com.hk/chi/comp_news_view.asp…

[Firsteven]

Apparently the earlier news article this morning that I posted (and deleted) on China Moly IPO was a bit out to lunch. Maybe they meant M$ not B$. Here is the latest Bloomberg news on the IPO...KR

China Molybdenum Raises $943 Million in Hong Kong IPO (Update2)


By Bei Hu

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China Molybdenum Co. raised HK$7.37 billion ($943 million) in a Hong Kong initial share sale, becoming the world's biggest publicly held producer of the steel ingredient, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The company sold 1.084 billion new shares, a 22.7 percent stake, at HK$6.80, said the people, declining to be identified before an announcement. Individual investors ordered about 400 times the stock on offer, enabling the sale's arrangers to raise the top end of the price range from HK$6.40.

Investors are piling into Chinese initial public offerings to tap annual economic growth of more than 10 percent. Government attempts to cool demand for commodities used in construction and manufacturing have been largely ineffectual, with stainless steel output forecast to grow 37 percent this year.

``Resources stocks have been quite hot over the last few months,'' said Kenny Tang, associate director of research at Tung Tai Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The valuation is not very high and the market thinks there should be more upside to the company after the listing.''

Morgan Stanley and UBS AG arranged the sale.

Nick Footitt, a Morgan Stanley spokesman in Hong Kong, and Chris Cockerill for UBS in Hong Kong, declined to comment. An official in China Moly's Luanchuan, Henan province head office, who refused to give his name, also declined to comment.

China Moly plans to boost production of the metal, used to harden steel, as demand from makers of Chinese stainless steel pushes prices to records.

Rising Prices

The price in China of molybdenum concentrate, a semi- processed form of the metal, has climbed 16 percent this year, according to research company Metal Bulletin. World stainless steel production jumped 17 percent last year, the International Stainless Steel Forum said on its Web site.

China, the world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 percent this year to 7.35 million metric tons, metals research firm Heinz H. Pariser said March 21.

Molybdenum accounts for 1 percent of the raw material used for stainless steel making, and 20 percent in terms of value because of its relatively high price.

Hong Kong individuals ordered almost 400 times the 108.4 million shares earmarked for them, the people said. Increased their share of the sale from 10 percent to 50 percent by exercising a so-called claw-back option.

Demand from international institutions covered the remaining shares, after deducting $160 million of stock reserved for corporate investors, by more than 200 times, they said.

History Lesson

``Recent history shows if you buy China IPOs, you will make money,'' said Andrew Clarke, a sales trader at SG Securities Hong Kong Ltd.

Chinese companies raised $41.8 billion from initial public share sales in Hong Kong since the beginning of last year, accounting for about 90 percent of all first-time public stock offerings in the city in the period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Of the companies that went public on Hong Kong's main board last year, 49 percent gained at least 20 percent on the first day of trade, accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP said.

Nine corporate investors including China Life Insurance Co., Citic Pacific Ltd., and Government of Singapore Investment Corp. bought a combined $160 million of shares.

[Firsteven]

Super Molybdenum Stainless Steel Vital to Global Nuclear Reactor Build Up
COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview.com
April 10, 2007
By James Finch


Molybdenum plays a more vital role in the global nuclear renaissance than you might suspect. Without the silvery white metal, the world’s energy infrastructure would somewhat suffer. But, nuclear power plants would be set back at least two decades. The new high performance stainless steels (HPSS) contain as much as 7.5 percent molybdenum and can add more than three times the life to the world’s aging nuclear fleet condenser tubes.

During the early construction of nuclear power plants, steam condensers relied upon copper base alloys – brass and copper nickel – for heat transfer capabilities. These alloys have high coefficients of thermal conductivity required in steam generation to power nuclear reactor turbines. But copper-alloyed tubes were being replaced too quickly – with an average life of eight years – because of sulphide pitting. Hardest hit were those reactors using polluted seawater to cool their reactors.

Over the past 30 years ago, nuclear utilities slowly began turning to the super austenitic stainless steels as one way to make their nuclear reactors last longer. The addition of molybdenum, initially starting with percentage of less than four percent, helped increase the thermal conductivity lacking in nickel, iron or steel. At nuclear stations which replaced the copper alloys with HPSS condenser tubes, 57 percent rated the thermal performance good and all but one rated it normal. Molybdenum had helped overcome the thermal hurdle.

A large number of the 190 nuclear reactors, which now utilize HPSS condenser tubes, reported an average life in excess of 18 years. The longest stainless steel condenser installation has remained in service more than 26 years, according to a study done several years ago. According to a report published in 2000, more than 100 million feet of super-alloy stainless steel tubes have replaced the older, copper-alloy tubing.

Condensers are large heat exchangers used in nuclear power plants. Condensers have thousands of tubes horizontally mounted to condense and recover the steam passing through turbines. Each low-pressure turbine generally has a condenser, which also maintains a vacuum to optimize the turbine’s efficiency.

Water fouling deposits were cited as a major problem at many reactors, especially with condenser tubes where seawater or high-chloride brackish water was the coolant. Pitting corrosion, tube sheet crevice corrosion and galvanic corrosion put the tubes at risk for leakage. Plugging, mud, or detritus accumulating in condenser tubes reduce a power plant’s efficiency.
Utilities use cleaning systems with small, abrasive sponge-like balls to keep the tubes clean and test for tube defectives with probing devices. Tube thinning and corrosion create the opportunity for tube leakage. This can not be tolerated because chemicals such as sodium and chlorides find their way into the reactor vessel or steam generator.

Upgrading the steam condenser tubing to stainless steel also plays a vital role in the ‘power uprate’ program utilities have used to increase generating capacity for existing reactors as we recently discussed . The more advanced uprate program could add up to 20-percent capacity to existing U.S. nuclear reactors.

There are several HPSS manufacturers for nuclear reactor condensers. The most prominent in the nuclear sector include Pennsylvania-based ATI Allegheny Ludlum and Finland’s Outokumpu. Each offers austenitic steels with chromium and nickel composition of between 20 and 25 percent for each alloy and a range of 6.2 to 7.5 percent molybdenum.

In a paper presented by Jan Olsson of Avesta Sheffield (before the company was acquired by Outokumpu), he highlighted the results of tests performed on the new super-austenitic stainless steel, 654 SMO®. Metals comprising this brand include 25-percent chromium, 22-percent nickel and 7.5-percent molybdenum. To increase pitting resistance, the manufacturers added up to 0.5-percent nitrogen and three-percent manganese (for make the nitrogen more soluble).

As with all pioneering developments – and remember that R & D breakthroughs have taken place over a two-decade-plus period, manufacturers have re-designed their metallurgical composition to find the most encouraging percentages of nickel, chromium, molybdenum and nitrogen. The earlier stainless steels relied on higher nickel content and lesser percentages of chromium and molybdenum.

At first, conventional austenitic grades, such as 316L, or high chromium-ferritic grades, were utilized. Pitting struck down widespread use of the 316L series and was replaced by higher alloy steels. For example, others, such as the 254 SMO® stainless steel, began aggressively replacing the copper alloy tubes and in some cases the 316L series. The 254 is comprised of 20-percent chromium, 18-percent nickel, 6.2-percent molybdenum and 0.20-percent nitrogen. It has also offered a high level of corrosion resistance at desalination plants without becoming cost-prohibitive.

The most significant breakthrough came after various stainless steels were tested at Scandinavian coastal reactors. In the Avesta paper, the failures of each lesser austenitic grade were checked off. Significant deficiencies included insufficient stress corrosion cracking resistance and resistance to natural seawater. Even titanium tubing was used as an interim measure because it increased total heat transfer by 17 percent, but the metal failed to stand up to high velocity steam and suffered ‘water droplet erosion.’

According to the study, “The only alloy fully resistant to all test conditions was 654 SMO®.” The results at nuclear power plants in Finland and Sweden, along the Baltic Sea, were astonishing! Four important conclusions about this super alloy were reached after the testing.
Its corrosion resistance could cope with the hostile environments existing inside condenser tubes of desalination plants and power plants.
Its corrosion resistance was good enough to cop with many other hostile brine and seawater environments.
Its erosion resistance was advantageous where it was exposed to high velocity streams.
There was no concern about its heat transfer characteristics.


Nuclear Consumption of Molybdenum

About 48 nuclear reactors are reportedly scheduled for construction by 2013. It may be possible that up to 100 could be constructed by 2020, depending upon political and financial climates. The largest number proceeding through the proposed, planned or construction phases will be located along coastal areas to service the most populated areas. The greatest numbers of new constructions are expected from China, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Japan (and possibly the United States).

Existing reactors along coastal areas in Asian countries presently breaks down as follows: Japan (57), South Korea (26), China and Taiwan (19) and India (11). Because these are the most prone to seawater or brackish corrosion, they are also the likely candidates for upgrading existing condenser tubing to high alloy stainless steel. And their new reactors are likely going to be constructed along their coasts, requiring the super austenitic grades. As an aside, of the previously mentioned 190 nuclear power plants which had replaced their condensers with HPSS, 45 percent used fresh water as coolant. Those plants chose the high alloy steel as a ‘fail-safe’ measure to prevent interrupted service or a potential reactor incident.

The United Nations estimates that two-thirds of the planet’s population will be living with water stress by 2025. Global freshwater scarcity may demand the use of brackish or seawater as nuclear reactor coolant. To prevent the accompanying corrosion, the higher-percentage molybdenum alloy, specifically the 654 SMO®, could emerge as the condenser tubing material of choice. Either the 254 SMO® or the 654 would be utilized in desalination plants required to overcome water shortages in the hardest hit areas: North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia.

Typically, nuclear power plant condenser tubing requires approximately 520,000 feet of stainless steel. According to the International Molybdenum Association (IMOA), larger reactors could utilize up to one million feet of stainless steel. With the higher molybdenum grades found in the super alloys, new nuclear reactors could require tens of thousands of metric tons of molybdenum.

By comparison, nuclear waste containers proposed for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository were forecast to consume about 15,000 metric tons of moly. While this project may or may not proceed as planned to the construction phase, the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) has proposed regionalized storage of spent fuel.

Should comparably designed storage canisters be utilized to ‘temporarily’ contain the nuclear waste, it is likely molybdenum will play a key role. According to the U.S. Government’s Energy Citation Database, as published by the Department of Energy’s Office of Scientific and Technical Information, “Alloys with combined chromium plus molybdenum contents greater than 30 percent were the most resistant to general and local attack.” This was the conclusion reached after corrosion scouring tests were performed on stainless steel and nickel-based alloys to immobilize high-level, radioactive waste.

Another aspect where high-percentage molybdenum stainless steel would double up is with the expansion of nuclear desalination plants. In the past, and in our publication, “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market,” we have discussed the rise of nuclear desalination across those coastal areas, requiring far more freshwater than can possibly be transported through other means. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) has reported of numerous such desalination projects in progress.

Will The Energy Bull Have Sufficient Moly?

The C-276 alloy, used in Flue Gas Desulphurization plants to reduce the discharge of sulfur dioxide from coal-fired plants, includes up to 16 percent molybdenum. The IMOA forecasts up to $168 billion will be spent worldwide on this pollution control equipment for two-thirds of the world’s coal-fired generators.

From nearly every energy project – oil, gas, coal and nuclear, and for water, molybdenum demand will continue increasing. Super austenitic grades demand a higher moly content to combat corrosion and provide reliability of service. Of course, there will be substitution in the face of future supply shortfalls. In some instances, there are reports the Russians have substituted vanadium for molybdenum in some of their oil and gas pipelines to conserve on moly consumption. ATI Allegheny Ludlum has argued for the substitution of two-percent manganese for every percent of nickel, but in the lower grade austenitic groups which do not demand the corrosion resistance of energy projects.

While reviewing the anticipated new projects from the molybdenum mining sector, we foresee the high probability of supply inadequacy. Aside from China Moly’s Sandaozhuang molybdenum mine, which the company hopes could produce 28,000 tonnes of molybdenum concentrate this year and perhaps grow by another 17 percent the following year, there is a paucity of new molybdenum projects coming fully online before 2009.

Based upon China’s voracious appetite for molybdenum – one research firm estimated compounded annual growth rate over the previous five years at 17 percent, whatever excess moly production comes from China Moly’s mining efforts could very well be domestically consumed.

Future North American molybdenum producers may need to ramp up their projects to meet the growing demand. During 2006, demand grew above the historical norm of four percent; most of the consumption came from China. This is unlikely to stagnate or decrease, and could interfere with North American and European consumption of molybdenum.

Only one company is scheduled to commence molybdenum mining in 2007, Roca Mines. Because the company is limited to a small-mining permit, anticipated production could not exceed three million pounds. By late 2008, or early 2009, Adanac Molybdenum hopes to commence its start-up efforts to reach eight-figure moly production. Later, Blue Pearl Mining hopes to commence high-grade molybdenum mining at the Davidson deposit in British Columbia. Around this time, the Climax molybdenum mine could re-open and begin production in Colorado. Moly Mines hopes to begin production at the company’s Spinifex project. Possibly, before the decade ends, Idaho General might commence operations in Nevada. Perhaps before those 48 nuclear reactors come online, US Energy’s moly deposit may be mined in Colorado.

Many of these projects are subject to environmental permitting and/or financing, putting any material amount of forecasted supply in jeopardy. And this comes at a time when some experts believe byproduct molybdenum production at copper mines could be constrained. There are many conditional requirements which do not necessarily guarantee a reliable supply from the new breed of primary moly producers. We have witnessed comparable obstacles in the uranium sector, which has since been accompanied by a hyperbolic price rally in this metal.

There could come a time in the molybdenum sector when the silvery white metal could mimic such a breakout scenario. Nearly three years ago, StockInterview.com featured a forecast of US$100/pound uranium. No one believed that prediction at the time. On Friday, TradeTech announced a spot price of US$113/pound.


April 10, 2007
By James Finch

[Firsteven]

Note the interest rate hikes in China (3 recent) have not dampened the growth of this Asian engine one bit and I seriously doubt if another hike will have much effect either...Just more fear mongering from pundits/anal-ysts causing a few Funds & retail investors to run for cover today. Just another short lived blip on the big picture in metals IMHO...KR

China's Economy Surges at Faster-Than-Forecast 11.1% (Update9)


By Nipa Piboontanasawat

April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at a faster- than-forecast 11.1 percent pace in the first quarter from a year earlier, raising the likelihood the government will increase interest rates to curb the risk of overheating.

Growth accelerated from 10.4 percent in the previous quarter, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. China's benchmark stock index fell 4.7 percent before the release, triggering declines in Asian and European shares, on speculation borrowing costs will rise.

Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will take steps to curb lending and investment in factories and property and rein in the record trade surplus. Inflation accelerated to 3.3 percent, the fastest pace in more than two years, and breached the central bank's 3 percent target for the year.

``Growth has been driven by continuing strength in investment and continuing strength in politically sensitive exports,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. ``China needs to cool profits and the easiest way to do that would be to allow the yuan to appreciate at a faster rate.''

China's expansion beat the 10.4 percent median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The benchmark CSI 300 stock index fell the most since the 9 percent plunge on Feb. 27 that triggered a global equities rout. The index has since gained 28 percent.

Yuan Forecast

The yuan traded at 7.7168 against the dollar as of 5.11 p.m. in Shanghai, almost the strongest since a peg was scrapped in 2005. After the release, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast the currency will gain 9 percent in the next year.

``Loan growth is too fast, there is pressure for fixed- asset investment to rebound and the trade surplus continues to increase,'' Premier Wen Jiabao said in a statement on the government's Web site. ``China will keep strengthening control on investment, loans and growth in the trade surplus and maintain stable prices.''

Urban investment in factories and real estate jumped 25.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 24.5 percent for all of 2006. The increase was 29.8 percent in the same period last year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its estimate for China's growth this year to 10.8 percent from 10 percent on today's release. That would beat last year's 10.7 percent and be the biggest expansion since 1995. Standard Chartered Plc's new estimate is 10.6 percent, up from 9.7 percent.

Banks' Reserves

``The government measures to slow growth had no effect in the first quarter and shares have risen too much,'' said Paul Tang, an economist at Bank of East Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The central bank will probably keep increasing banks' reserve requirements and raise interest rates three times this year.''

The U.S. last week filed World Trade Organization complaints against China and lawmakers claim the yuan is kept weak to make exports cheap. The currency, allowed to move 0.3 percent against the dollar each day, has gained 7.2 percent since the peg was scrapped.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last week called on China to let the yuan strengthen. China limits gains to protect exporters and jobs. The textile industry says it loses 8.2 billion yuan of annual profit for each percentage point gain.

Currency Reserves

China's foreign reserves grew by $45 billion a month to $1.2 trillion in the first quarter, double the average monthly increase of the past three years, according to calculations by HSBC Holdings Plc.

The jump may be partly explained by Chinese companies bringing home the proceeds of initial public offerings and banks unwinding their foreign currency positions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

``The fact that Chinese companies have been rushing to bring in foreign currency and banks are unwinding their foreign currency positions shows that expectations about renminbi appreciation have increased significantly over the last few months,'' Qu wrote in a note.

Retail sales grew 15.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said.

``Exports and investment cannot carry on rising at the current rate,'' said Mark Williams, Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``China has to boost consumption, balance growth and remain active in keeping liquidity steady.''

China's economic structure is ``irrational,'' the statistics bureau said in today's statement.

Stock Speculation

Surging overseas sales that drove the trade surplus to $177.5 billion in 2006 provide cash for stock market and real estate speculation and factory investment.

Individual investors are opening share trading accounts at a record rate, with more than 1 million added last week, the Financial Times reported today, without citing anyone.

Manufacturing overcapacity may lead to deflation and turn investment growth into a ``curse,'' the Asian Development Bank said last month. The nation's steelmaking capacity of 462 million metric tons at the end of 2006 was 10 percent more than production.

The central bank raised borrowing costs three times in the past year to an almost eight-year high. The one-year benchmark lending rate is 6.39 percent.

It has raised the amount of money lenders must set aside as reserves six times in 10 months and sold bills to soak up cash. That hasn't cooled lending growth. Banks made 1.4 trillion yuan of new loans in the first quarter, nearly half the total for last year.

China also uses administrative measures, such as land controls and environmental and energy-use hurdles to cool investment.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at npiboontanas@...

Last Updated: April 19, 2007 06:33 EDT

[Firsteven]

Nuclear Expansion Pushes Up Uranium & Molybdenum Prices Message List

Reply | Forward Message #395 of 396 < Prev | Next >

Attention Business Editors:

Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index Climbs to a New Record, As The
Mining Boom Continues
<<
- Expansion of nuclear power pushes up both uranium and
molybdenum prices
>>

TORONTO, April 19 /CNW/ - Scotiabank's Commodity Price Index,
which measures price trends in 32 of Canada's major exports, rose to
new heights in March, up 3.8 per cent month-over-month and 3.2 per
cent above the previous record in December 2006. The All Items Index
has advanced by 123.4 per cent since the cyclical bottom in October
2001.
The Metal and Mineral Index jumped to a new record in March, the
second in as many months, amid further strength in uranium, double-
digit price gains for molybdenum and cobalt (specialty steel
additives), a strong rebound in copper prices and a spike in nickel
to US$21. High-alloy stainless steel containing molybdenum is used in
condenser tubes for nuclear power reactors, likely a growth market
for molybdenum, given the planned 38 per cent expansion of the
world's nuclear power generators by 2020.
"The tremendous staying power of metal prices in this business
expansion, despite concern over a slowing U.S. economy, also reflects
a global economy which is less and less dominated by the United
States," says Patricia Mohr, Vice-President, Economics and commodity
market specialist at Scotiabank.
"Metal markets were encouraged in March by news that China's
industrial production accelerated in the first quarter, with another
17.6 per cent year-over-year gain announced today for March (up from
14.7 per cent in December)."
Molybdenum has recently attracted considerable investor interest.
Molybdenum oxide prices started the decade at US$2.56 per pound, but
began to rally with other metals in 2003, and rose to a record
US$31.88 in 2005 amid tight global supply/demand conditions, China's
closure of small mines in Laioning Province due to environmental
concerns and processing bottlenecks in the West (i.e.
limited 'roasting' capacity to convert concentrates into
molybdenum oxide). While prices eased back in 2006, as Chilean and US
copper producers stepped up their molybdenum output and
new 'roasting' capacity was added in Chile, prices have rebounded to
the US$28 mark in mid-April
(historically a very high level).
Spot uranium prices climbed from US$85 per pound in late February
to US$95 in late March and surged to US$113 on April 9 (up US$18 in
one week alone). Uranium prices have already advanced by US$41 or 57
per cent since the end of December, making uranium the top performing
of the 32 commodities in the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index. "China
has announced that it will develop a strategic reserve for uranium, a
development likely pushing up prices further," says Mohr.
"Overall, the Metal and Mineral Index rose 73 per cent above the
previous cyclical peak in June 1988, as broad-based strength in base
metals, fertilizer-related minerals, uranium and steel alloying
agents more than offset a slight decline in gold and silver prices.
This Sub-Index could post another record in April," says Ms. Mohr.

[Firsteven]

STOCK TO BEGIN TRADING NEXT WEEK
China Moly IPO could hit $997m, one of the largest on HKEX
One of the largest IPOs anticipated on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year is Henan Province’s China Moly, which begins trading later this month.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Tuesday , 10 Apr 2007

RENO, NV -

China Molybdenum, operator of one of the largest pure molybdenum mines in the world, could emerge as the third largest Hong Kong IPO this year.

Finance Asia reports that eight cornerstone institutional investors have already committed to what might be an initial IPO of $977 million. Quoting sources, Finance Asia said the eight investors will buy $20 million each and have committed to a 12-month lock-up.

Located in central China's Henan Province, China Moly is believed to have 498,000 tonnes of molybdenum reserves and 506,000 tonnes of tungsten reserves. On its website, the company claims to produce more than 7 million tons of moly annually. The company also smelts and reprocessing molybdenum.

The company began its IPO roadshow in Singapore Monday, and will visit Hong Kong on Tuesday. Final prices for the shares will be set on April 19, according to Shanghai Daily. The stock is scheduled to commence trading on April 26 in Hong Kong.

China Moly, which is selling 22.7% of its issued shares, plans to use the IPO proceeds to expand mining production and increase the processing capacity of moly products further down the production chain.

Citing unidentified research reports, FinanceAsia quoted a source who said that "this company has the necessary scale in its molybdenum production and it is in the right place with demand in China increasingly rapidly." The company is also planning to be active in acquiring other companies, according to the reports.

Molybdenum is used primarily for hardening steel, and has numerous uses in construction, shipping, automobile, defense and oil industries. Stainless steel accounted for 28% of worldwide molybdenum demand in 2005, followed by numerous specialty steels. Catalytic applications comprised 8% of international moly demand. China accounted for 20% of world moly mine production in 2005. The nation's consumption of molybdenum doubled to around 18kt between 2001 and 2005, according to Roskill Information Services.

[Firsteven]

Rohstoff Express: Der "Reichmacher-Rohstoff"!?
18:38 17.04.07

Wissen Sie eigentlich, was Molybdän ist? Nein, es handelt sich hierbei nicht um eine neue Designerdroge sondern um einen Rohstoff - genauer gesagt um ein Metall. Und dieses beweist einmal mehr, dass die besten Investment-Möglichkeiten abseits des „Mainstreams“ lauern. Sei 1999 stieg der Kurs des „unbekannten Überfliegers“ um über 1.000 Prozent. Eine bessere Performance konnte lediglich Uran erzielen. Doch wer jetzt denkt, dass der „Molybdän-Zug“ bereits abgefahren sei, irrt gewaltig. Wenngleich eine nochmalige Kursverzehnfachung sicherlich eher unwahrscheinlich ist, deutet das Gesamtumfeld in jedem Fall auf tendenziell weiter anziehende Notierungen hin.

Ungebremstes Nachfrage-Wachstum

Denn Molybdän wird auch künftig vergleichsweise knapp bleiben. Gegenwärtig liegt die globale Nachfrage bei etwa 400 Millionen Pfund jährlich. Seit den 1960er Jahren hat sich der Verbrauch damit um rund 500 Prozent erhöht. Grund: Molybdän ist ein wichtiger Bestandteil verschiedener Hochleistungswerkstoffe. Auf Grund seiner Eigenschaften wird es insbesondere zur Härtung von Stahl und zur Herstellung von Metall-Legierungen verwendet. Vor allem seine Hitzebeständigkeit macht es im Flugzeug- und Raketenbau aber auch bei Pipelines oder Gebäuden fast schon unverzichtbar. Experten gehen daher davon aus, dass sich das aktuelle Nachfrage-Wachstum zwischen vier und fünf Prozent pro Jahr in Zukunft erheblich beschleunigen könnte. Sollte die Industrialisierung in den asiatischen Schwellenländern mit unvermindertem Tempo voranschreiten, ist nicht auszuschließen, dass sich der globale Molybdän-Bedarf innerhalb der nächsten Dekade verdoppelt.

Knappes Angebot

Das Angebot wird da nur schwerlich mithalten können. Immerhin gibt es keine größeren reinen Molybdän-Lagerstätten. Gegenwärtig wird Molybdän hautsächlich als „Abfallprodukt“ bei der Kupfer-Förderung gewonnen. Rund 65 Prozent der auf dem Weltmarkt verfügbaren Menge stammen aus Kupferminen. Unternehmen, die sich schwerpunktmäßig auf die Molybdän-Produktion konzentrieren, gibt es gerade einmal eine Handvoll. Allerdings fallen bei der Kupfer-Erzeugung lediglich zwischen 0,01 und 0,03 Prozent Molybdän an. Somit kann man sich leicht ausrechnen, welche unvorstellbaren Mengen an Kupfer abgebaut werden müssten, um auf diese Weise die stark wachsende Molybdän-Nachfrage auch nur ansatzweise zu befriedigen.

Zudem ist das Legierungsmetall mit dem „Zungenbrecher-Namen“ nicht in unbegrenzter Menge verfügbar. Laut einer Studie des Geologischen Instituts der USA dürften die bisher bekannten weltweiten Molybdän-Reserven bereits im Jahr 2041 vollständig aufgebraucht sein. Dieser Umstand sollte den Preis - ähnlich wie bei Rohöl - langfristig auf einem hohen Niveau halten.

Eingeschränkte Investment-Möglichkeiten

Da Molybdän ähnlich wie Uran selbst nicht börsennotiert ist, können Anlegern nicht über Zertifikate auf den Molybdänpreis unmittelbar von dem Boom profitieren. Somit bleibt lediglich der „Umweg“ über Aktien von Unternehmen, die in diesem Segment tätig sind. Denkbar ist es natürlich, einfach die Anteilsscheine großer Kupfer-Produzenten zu erwerben. Diese sind wegen des oben geschilderten Zusammenhangs zugleich auch die bedeutendsten Molybdän-Erzeuger. Allerdings ist der Umfang im Vergleich zum Kupfergeschäft doch recht mager, so dass steigende Molybdänpreise nur geringe Auswirkungen auf die Ertragslage dieser „Minen-Giganten“ haben. Für mutige Anleger bieten daher ausschließlich auf Molybdän spezialisierte Explorer bessere Chancen. Deren Aktienkurse sind aber zuletzt bereits teilweise regelrecht explodiert. Denken Sie nur einmal an eine Blue Pearl Mining oder eine Moly Mines. Dennoch erscheinen diese beiden Aktien längerfristig auch auf dem erhöhten Niveau immer noch aussichtsreich. Seit gestern gibt es zudem mit den Aktien der Sprott Molybdenum Participation Group eine Art Molybdän-Exchange-Traded Fund. Für eher risikoscheue Anlegernaturen ist dieses Investment sicherlich eine Überlegung wert. Denn genau wie die in der letzten Woche vorgestellten Papiere der Uranium Participation besteht nur ein geringeres operatives Risiko. Aber Sie wissen ja: Weniger Risiko bedeutet immer auch geringere Gewinnchancen!

Ihre Rohstoff-Express-Redaktion
Derivate Magazin
www.derivate-online.de

[Firsteven]

von betzo


An Interview with Eric Sprott of
Sprott Asset Management
(From April 16, 2007)
He is one of the most successful
investors in Canada and also
runs one of the best Funds in the
country – The Sprott Canadian Equity
Fund. Eric Sprott is definitely a
joy to interview and we certainly
appreciated the opportunities that
he has given us!
His Fund has had one bad year
in 1998 when it was down 16%,
other than that his Fund has been
up. In 1999 his Fund was up 53%,
or how about in 2000 when the
Fund was up 44%, as well as the following—2001 up 43%,
2002 up 39%, 2003 up 30%, 2004 up 37%, 2005 up 13%, and in
2006 up 39%. He has made some pretty decent change if you
put some money with him in his Funds. Well you get the drift!
He is one of the biggest proponents of the new world
where commodity prices be it zinc, lead, nickel, uranium, oil,
natural gas, or coal - with on-going demand increasing from
Asia commodities could continue to do well.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
We are here with Eric Sprott, of Sprott Asset Management,
whose Funds lately have been setting near records (for Mutual
Funds), so it’s time to catch up with the guru behind the
Funds and ask some questions, topical to the time, and Eric
the first question would have to be about the markets in general.
Usually, you see a resource sell off in the spring and also
in the United States they are talking about the highest level
usage of margin since the internet bubble in 2000. Is there a
correction coming, do you think, for the Resource sector?

Eric: I’ve always been sort of a bear on the U.S. stock market
– I’ve been a bear on it ever since or before the NASDAQ
peak, simply because, we had a “lending mania” in the U.S.
and I think that there is going to be a fall-out for them – we’ve
already seen a sub-prime problem. It will spill into other levels
of mortgage lending and even price lending. We are going
to see it in declining housing prices – I don’t know how we
avoid that and I think that it will have an impact on the stock
market and the economy.
When you asked about resources, I think we’ve evolved
into the view that Asian growth might very well off-set a U.S.
decline – its a little bit Malthusian, in the sense that there
might be too many people and not enough resources in the
world and it would certainly appear to the be the case in many
materials now – both agricultural and industrial – and the
prices are really starting to move along here. So, I think that
the resource area might be able to withstand the type of stock
market that we foresee.

David: When we get to specific minerals, moly has done
amazing and of course the Sprott Fund is one of the biggest
holders of Blue Pearl Mining – what a stock call on that one!
What do you see for that company, plus moly?

Eric: Obviously, we are great believers in molybdenum and
it’s very analogous to what we all understand has happened
to many metals, so for example when we look at nickel we
saw that all the inventories went down – we all know why the
price is up – copper the inventories go down and the price
goes up, which is the same for lead and zinc.
The funny part about molybdenum is that you can’t see the
inventories, but I would honestly guess that the inventories
have gone down significantly, as I would guess they’ve gone
down for every metal, because nobody spent money looking
for metals for about the last 20 years and there has been very
little in the way of new mines opening.
Most metals will have a supply / demand situation where
demand has exceeded supply for the last few years, but the
consumption of inventory has masked the whole process.
So with moly having done what it did - it came from about I
think $3.00 or $4.00 up to $40.00 and then pulled back to the
low $20.00 and now it is about $28.00, we suggest that the
prices have a good chance of going higher and as it pertains
to Blue Pearl, I guess the dominating thing in the Blue Pearl
market today is the fact that China Molybdenum is going public
and it would appear to us that the valuation at the high end –
that they are putting on this China Molybdenum – would suggest
that Blue Pearl can increase reasonably dramatically
from these levels to get the same value as China Molybdenum.
China Molybdenum apparently is 10 times over subscribed,
they’ve raised the top price where it might be issued
and I think to people looking at China Moly, which will be an
International investment play, the next biggest stock in the
moly area is Blue Pearl. So, I think some people are buying
Blue Pearl as they are looking at the China Moly situation.

David: One of the ironies of recent times has been metals
most people never followed like nickel, uranium and moly
out-performing the metal people used to follow – gold! Can
you see that following for a while, or is that about to change?

Eric: Well, the one unique difference between gold and those
other metals is all gold ever produced in the world or 90% of
it still exists. A lot of that gold unfortunately exists with Central
Banks – Central Banks seem to be turning their back on
gold and we think would prefer (quite frankly) to keep the
price of gold under control.
So it’s our view that these sales by the Central Banks
have the intent of dissuading buying by the public, because
gold is the canary in the coal mine. And, that’s kind of the
thing that has held gold back. I think if left with its own devices,
in other words supply vs demand with- out Central
Banks being involved gold would be a lot higher. But unfortunately
the Central Banks sell 300 to 400 to 500 tonnes of
gold a year, which is an incredible amount of gold to sell and
it has kept the price a little suppressed.

David: What do you see for gold in the next year?

Eric: Well, I think gold will continue going higher. I think that
quite frankly the Central Banks know that not withstanding
their selling, the price is going up. It’s likely to keep going
up. I can hardly say to what level but I am sure we’ll take out
the $730.00 old high that we had last year and I for one, and I
am sure my partner John Embry, as well, believe that we will
see record highs, whether or not we see them this year or
sometime in 08, I think it will certainly happen within the 07-
08 time frame.

David: There is another commodity that had a big run up to
2 years ago and has sold off recently, but is in the news today
on Bloomberg and that’s coal because China which has
big reserves maybe changing from a net-exporter to an netimporter.
That could change a lot of things for energy, couldn’t
it?

Eric: It could indeed! The coal stocks are certainly catching
a bid these days and coal has been a big bet of ours going
back to 03 and that big bet really hasn’t paid off much. It
certainly has been a non-performer relative to other energy
plays, but if you believe in the peak oil thesis, as we do, one
of the things you have to turn to is coal plus another one is
uranium and at the rate of growth that China has, I think coal
prices are likely to start moving back up again.
David: Is there a favorite stock that you have in the coal sector?
Eric: Well, we have a number. We have a number in Australia,
we have a number in Canada – the Canadian ones are
mostly metallurgical coal and there has been a lot of action
on that front these days. I’ve actually recently bought Peabody
in the U.S. – the largest coal producer in North America
– obviously it’s my latest purchase, so it’s the one I think
probably will get the most attention certainly at the beginning
of this move.

David: Looking at a couple of stocks in particular – Delta
Petroleum in the United States in the Columbia River Basin
still seems to do big volume and attract interest on whether
they do have gas in the area or not.

Eric: Right! Boy what an enigma. I remember that we
thought this well was going to be drilled in January of 05
and here we are in April 07 and we still haven’t heard any
results.
I happen to be a believer in the Basin Centered Gas
Association thesis and we’re just going to hang in there
until we get some results and even if one well doesn’t
work typically Basin Centered Gas plays, once you get a
successful one, you can probably bank on a lot of other
successful ones, so we’re just going to sit here and ride
it out and hope that we got our money on the right horse.

David: You’ve obviously had your money on the right
horse in Corridor Resources. We’ve really enjoyed that
run ourselves, as well, and I understand that there is going
to be quite a few analysts and followers on site next
Monday. Any comments on that play?

Eric: Well, it has been a great investment for us! It certainly
went under the radar screen of most analysts in
Canada, because it is in New Brunswick and people can’t
fathom gas in New Brunswick, but they’ve had tremendous
success with the drill bit so far and the opportunities
in the two separate formations that they will be testing
– the Fredericks Brook and the Dawson Settlement –
could be something in the order of ten times bigger then
the area they are now drilling.
The area that they are drilling, they suggest, could
have a trillion cubic feet of gas in place! So, this has all
the makings of a potentially explosive situation if they get
lucky on their drilling and so far the results look pretty
good.
D
avid: Your sidekick, John Embry, one of his favorite
stories for a while has been gold based in China – Southwestern
Resources. Any thoughts on that story?

Eric: Well it’s really a “John” story; he recommended
Southwestern Resources. The property looks like it gets
bigger and for some reason there’s not that many people
seemingly paying attention to it.
I don’t know whether it is the Chinese thing or what it
is, but I guess there has been more explosive exploration
stories recently and I guess I would point to something
like Aurelian, which is commanding a lot of attention. I
am not the expert on Southwestern and I’ll leave that to
John.

David: Before we get to your three favorite picks, is there
a metal or a commodity that you would be concerned
about?

Eric: That’s a good question! Our view happens to be that most commodities will be in short supply, so I think most of them will
be heading up here. We’re quite positive on gas and oil and certainly most of the metals (if not all the metals). I think that the
agricultural commodities are going to prove to be in short supply as well, so I guess we are in on all commodities!

David: Okay good! Now the fun part, what are your three favorite stories at this time?

Eric: Boy, that’s a tough one! My three favorite stories… well obviously we’re huge believers in the molybdenum story and I
guess our biggest investment is Blue Pearl. I think there are lots of things that are happening there and I think that the fact that
China Molybdenum is going to be popular is going to cause Blue Pearl to rise in my opinion. So I guess that is the work horse in
the moly area and we are going to stick with it.
I could probably point to a number of uranium stocks – the price of uranium is now up to $113.00. One of my long time favorites
has been a company called Strathmore Minerals. They were one of the first companies that saw uranium going higher back
in the late 90’s, so they are a really early participant in it and it has been one of our big favorites here.
I guess I’ll mention one other in the precious metals. There is a play down in Mexico that two companies are involved with –
the companies involved are Fortuna and Continuum.
We happen to be large owners of both of them. I think we own probably north of 15% of each one. They have some very interesting
properties in Mexico that have had some pretty good results. So I would go with that package as a decent precious metals
play.
David: Okay! We have mentioned some of your other favorites. Would a person watch Delta before they get and wait for news
and Corridor, should you just wait for more drilling or would you put your foot in now?
Eric: Well I have been a continuing buyer of Corridor. It had a great run. I think it goes higher. I really enjoy increasing our ownership.
We’ve always been a large owner of Delta. I haven’t recently increased our ownership. I am just waiting to see some
results here, so as much as I like the play and I realize how big it could be, (it could be very large) I am happy to wait for some
results and if the results are where I expect them to be, we’ll be a continuing buyer.
David: What questions should we have asked that you wanted us to ask, but we didn’t ask?
Eric: When it comes to Canada, things are looking pretty good here. When it comes to the U.S., I really fear for the housing impact
on the financial side and I think that is something that bears watching just to see how that unfolds, because it could get
quite nasty for a lot of people down there.
David: Thank you very much for your time, Eric.

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes: Apr. 19/07

New Resource Estimate Could Add 10 Years to Endako

A new resource estimate of the Endako, B.C., moly mine indicates that moly production at the mine could be extended for about 10 years beyond what was originally projected, market sources say. Endako is owned 75% by Blue Pearl Mining and 25% by Sojitz of Japan. Blue Pearl acquired its stake in Endako when it purchased Thompson Creek last year. Wardrop Engineering has calculated that measured and indicated moly resources are 492-million mt with an average grade of 0.043% Mo and 464-million lb of contained moly. Blue Pearl also plans to update the resource and reserve estimate for the Thompson Creek, ID, mine it owns. Blue Pearl's Executive Chairman Ian McDonald stated that resource updates "had not been a priority when the mines were privately owned." This surprised some market sources who suggested that it would have been in Thompson Creek's interest to investigate potential reserves of the properties it was offering up for sale. Indeed, many analysts had questioned the wisdom of Thompson Creek's purchase of 75% of Endako in 1997 because Endako's mine life was considered to be no more than nine years if operated at capacity (which at that time was believed to be close to 16-million ppy). Still, the sales price for the mine, a 16.5-million-ppy roaster and an idled 8-million-pppy roaster was believed to have been only $65-million in 1997, and times have changed considerably. Moly oxide prices at the time Placer Dome sold Endako were $4.40-4.75 per lb as opposed to current prices above $28 per lb. The Endako mine is slated to produce 11.3-million lb this year and 13.3-million lb in 2008. Wardrop Engineering will now draw up a new mine plan for Endako, incorporating updated operating costs and a long-term moly price assumption of $10 per lb. The previous reserve estimate and mine plan through 2013 assumed a long-term moly price of $3.50 per lb. Wardrop will examine the feasibility of constructing a super-pit from the three existing pits and of boosting mine production to 50,000 mtpd from 30,000 mtpd with a proportionate increase in roasting capacity.

[Firsteven]

Stainless Steel News:


US FerroMolybdenum Prices Expected To Rise

Ferromolybdenum prices have stabilized in the US market thanks to the exports restriction of the alloying material in China.

China's Customs has set minimum export prices for ferro-alloys, as the reference price was US$34 per pound for ferromolybdenum.

Basically, the US is dependent on material from China because there is no enough production produced.

The price will be likely to drive up to US$35 per pound due to lack of supply, said a trader in th US.

On the other hand, Chinese traders are worried about if Customs can't update the prices to reflect market changes in time.


News Date 4/19/2007 report by Bill Chen
http://www.yieh.com/2.2.01.01stainlesssteelnews.aspx?no=2198…

Yieh Corp., established in 1997, is closely affiliated with Taiwan's biggest privately owned steel group, E-United Group (Formerly known as the Yieh Group). Yusco, Yieh Phui and Yieh Mau, part of the E-United Group are all shareholders in Yieh Corp. Yieh has been supplying stainless steel, galvanized steel, pre-painted steel and carbon steel sheets, plates and coils, pipes and tubes, fitting, bar and wire rod to a global customer base since our establishment. The company's head office is located in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou, China.

[Firsteven]

Good Golly, It's Moly
20/04/2007 By: FN Arena


Wedged below chromium and above tungsten in the periodic table, molybdenum has at least one claim to fame in that it is arguably the hardest element name to pronounce. There is a certain irony, as it is for its hardness that molybdenum is also revered. But to save embarrassment, most in the molybdenum market refer to it as "moly".





Like most metals, moly's price has shot up over the past few years along with the great Chinese demand surge. However, moly made its big move from mid-2004 to mid-2005 where it peaked at over US$40/lb. It has since corrected, and has settled in the US$25-30/lb range recently.

The surge in the moly price largely coincided with movements in steel prices during the period. It was at the time of the amazing expansion of the Chinese steel industry which also saw the price of iron ore make a significant step-jump. Around the globe moly is produced mainly as a by-product of copper mining, although the Chinese have previously mined for moly specifically. At the time of increased demand, environmentally destructive moly mines were being forced to close in China, which only served to exacerbate the price movement.

The US Geographical Survey describes moly as such:

"Molybdenum (Mo) is a refractory metallic element used principally as an alloying agent in steel, cast iron, and superalloys to enhance hardenability, strength, toughness, and wear and corrosion resistance. To achieve desired metallurgical properties, molybdenum, primarily in the form of molybdic oxide or ferromolybdenum, is frequently used in combination with or added to chromium, columbium (niobium), manganese, nickel, tungsten, or other alloy metals. The versatility of molybdenum in enhancing a variety of alloy properties has ensured it a significant role in contemporary industrial technology, which increasingly requires materials that are serviceable under high stress, expanded temperature ranges, and highly corrosive environments. Moreover, molybdenum finds significant usage as a refractory metal in numerous chemical applications, including catalysts, lubricants, and pigments. Few of molybdenum's uses have acceptable substitutions."

It was due to moly's versatility that moly-watcher Ken Reser described it in 2005 as "the metal of the twenty-first century" and "the big secret".

But those excited about moly two years ago have since been disappointed. The price has recently stabilised at below-peak levels. The question now is will it drift further back to more historical levels, or will it form a base here? Analysts at GSJB Were last month suggested a 2007 average price of US$22/lb, down from US$25/lb last year. Citigroup is forecasting US$20/lb this year and US$10/lb in 2008. There might be some upside, notes Citi.

Let's face it: how many metals have actually returned to historical averages? And how often have resource analysts been content to simply shuffle up their price forecasts when spot prices rise too far above? Citigroup's Alan heap is still forecasting a 2007 average uranium price of US$73/lb and 2008 of US$50/lb, while at the same time suggesting demand will continue to outstrip supply over the period. The uranium price is now US$113/lb. Go figure.

There is no futures contract traded for molybdenum, but moly trading is more active than uranium trading. Last month, however, saw the introduction of the first moly exchange traded fund by Canada's Sprott Asset Management. Even this contract is far from "pure", investing 25% in metal and 75% in the shares of moly producers. But once investors can move into a commodity market, we know what tends to happen.

In the 1990's, moly was in oversupply. Chile is a major producer and back then the country was producing anything it could to generate hard currency to prop up its economy. This led to a period of minimal prices and overloaded warehouses. Moly production surged again around 2004 in response to the sudden jump in demand, which again goes some way to explaining the subsequent price decline.

However, according to metals expert Denis Battram, global moly production from traditional producers is now in decline. Chile's production exceeded 100mlbs in 2005 but has slipped to about 80mlbs today. The trend is still down. Canada's production has also eroded significantly, with several mines having closed. Chinese production has fallen potentially as much as 25% between 2002 and 2006 (Chinese numbers are always hard to confirm). China is currently in the process of introducing tariffs and other restrictions to moly exports. It wants to keep all the moly it can.

Denis Battram last month released a paper entitled "Structural Changes in Molybdenum Demand", which makes for interesting reading.

The main demand driver for moly is the steel market – particularly stainless and carbon steels. When the price of moly was languishing, development of moly-steel alloys was still largely in its infancy. Today there is a concerted push to produce new forms of duplex stainless steels which use up to 40% more moly than previously. Moly is being substituted for nickel, offering more beneficial properties. The price of nickel has continued to surge.

Commercial production of duplex nickel/moly steels is still evolving. China's leading steelmaker Baosteel produced its first hot rolled duplex stainless steel strip only this year. Currently moly-steels represent only 7-10% of the global stainless market. The US has been slow to adopt to moly, but not so Europe. Moly-steels are being used to build wheat silos and bulk-liquid storage tanks in Spain, and biodiesel production tanks in Holland, for example.

There are many potential applications for duplex stainless steels, but what is more exciting is the rising demand for so called "super" duplex stainless steels – those alloys significantly richer in moly increasingly being specified for use in highly corrosive conditions. Just one of those applications is for desalination plants.

Large desal plants are currently under construction in Libya, Saudi Arabia and Dubai. The South Australian government is presently working with BHP Billiton (BHP) to build a desal plant at Spencer Gulf to service both the massive Olympic Dam uranium mine and townships in the state's dry north. Australia is currently toying with 17 coastal locations suitable for desal plants. Spain plans to build 30 over the next few years. Spanish stainless steel producer Tubinox has announced its intention to double capacity between now and 2010 specifically to take advantage of the growing desal industry.

Increasing numbers of mining operations are under pressure to provide for their own extensive water usage. Desalination is becoming more and more popular as the world's dry areas become even drier.

Forty times bigger than the global stainless steel industry is the global carbon steel industry. By introducing moly into alloys the carbon steel industry is beginning to regain the ground lost to aluminium and plastics. The upside for moly use in this industry is, says Battram, "truly extraordinary".

Use of moly-steels is revolutionising the steel pipeline industry. Such advanced high-strength steels require less steel overall and greatly lowers construction costs. The vast majority of the world's pipe mills are yet to upgrade to new high-level moly alloys. Japan's Nippon Steel has announced the creation of a separate division simply for the production of moly-steel pipes and compressed gas cylinders.

Car makers in both Europe and North America are increasing their usage of high-strength steels as they struggle to meet safety improvement requirements while not adding weight. Safety aside, weight reduction is clearly a benefit in attempts to reduce carbon emissions. Asia is also following the trend, including China's fledgling auto market. Chinese car production increased by 27% in 2006.

New legislation in the shipping industry requires large cargo ships to have double-hulls by 2010, and again, weight considerations have seen ship builders turn to moly.

Another extensive usage for moly alloys is in the construction of nuclear power plants. Even before the rapid expansion in nuclear plant construction globally is taken into account, new generation reactors have increased the need for moly components, operating as they do under hotter and more corrosive conditions.

The majority of any power plant's component weight is common for nuclear, coal-based or oil-based generation. Hence it is irrelevant which way the world turns for its power generation – moly will still be in demand.

That's a wrap of just some of the applications for moly in steel, now let's turn to catalysts. Says Denis Battram:

"ULSD [or ultra-low sulphide diesel] is the single largest environmental mandate since the removal of lead from gasoline 25 years ago, and the full impact on molybdenum demand is yet to be felt".

Battram notes "extraordinary" growth in catalyst demand for the production of ULSD. To achieve the required sulphur reduction refineries must double their use of catalysts. About 95% of refiners use nickel-moly or cobalt-moly compounds. Since late last year, most of the diesel sold in North America has been ULSD, and this year sees the first production of diesel engines designed specifically to run on ULSD. Diesel demand growth over the last three years, at 4%, has doubled that of gasoline. US sales of diesel cars and trucks have increased by 80% in the last six years, and are expected to double again over the next decade.

Another application for moly catalysts is in the growing industry of gas-to-liquid fuel production. Ken Reser notes that as the popularity of GTL grows, required inventory for a single plant runs to thousands of tonnes of catalyst. Indeed, the demand for catalysts will also be driven by other alternative fuel sources, such as coal liquefaction (just becoming talked about in Australia), tar sands, and even in the cracking of today's remaining heavier, sour crude oil.

And of course there's the military. Battram notes China's recent tariff increase on moly exports happened to coincide with President Hu Jintao's announcement of a new defense spending plan that will include the building of a "strong and modern navy". As China rearms, Japan becomes nervous and it is looking to replace its entire airforce. No need to point out that moly has become popular in armour plate production.

And those famous "bunker buster" bombs that kicked off the latest Iraq war are also made with a moly-steel casing.

Experts suggest a further 100 million pounds of moly will be needed over the next four years to meet demand, which is expected to grow by 4% per annum from current levels of 410 million pounds. It is unclear where the new supply might come from. There are few new mines scheduled to come on stream with the exception of one in Peru, which should be producing 9 million pounds per annum by 2009, and a ramp-up by existing producer Phelps Dodge, which won't impact until 2010.

As far as the outlook for the moly price for here on in is concerned, one can be forgiven for saying "good golly".

[Firsteven]

*NOTE: My personal comment is that posting these China Molybdenum Corp news pieces from time to time here, is not in any way a like a recommendation to invest in an Asian miner, as I'd personaly only be comfortable investing in a western miner operating in China, but w/ shares trading in N America. That makes Jack's getting "out" comment more secure. Otherwise the total dollar scope of the China Moly IPO "is" a very big road sign for all Moly investors, and we should all take note of who participated (3 Asian & 1 Saudi {Billionaires} for one thing ) and just how much cash was literally thrown at this Chinese miner in a very rapid fashion...KR

China Watch (Out)

By Jack Lifton
20 Apr 2007 at 12:20 PM GMT-04:00


DETROIT (ResourceInvestor.com) -- China has had a plan in place, since it watched the Soviet Union collapse from internal economic mismanagement. The People's Republic of China (PRC) will offer its labour and raw materials on the world market at prices that the market dictates in order to accumulate capital to be used to allow the PRC to rapidly infuse across the board an improvement in the quality of life of the Chinese people. This plan, it was decided, would prevent what happened in the former Soviet Union from happening in China. The Chinese master planners were right. It is working.

At least a decade ago the PRC's leaders realized that it would take too long, for their political health, to develop the technologies to bring Chinese industry to the levels of the western and other Asian economies. They decided to trade cheap labour, and politically less onerous access, for technology. For example, primitive, by western or Japanese standards, mining technology was quickly upgraded by western mining companies falling all over themselves in eagerness to get at whatever Chinese resources were opened to them.




This week stage two in the process goes forward as China Molybdenum, touting "reserves" of 400 million pounds of molybdenum and 500 million pounds of tungsten, launches an IPO in Hong Kong to get at western capital to build from scratch a tungsten production facility and to completely modernize a molybdenum facility. At the same time those same western bankers who see fees, and the investors, who are watching molybdenum and tungsten prices grow enormous compared to those of just a very few years ago, are scrambling to get opening shares, while none of them have noticed that China has now imposed new taxes on these and other "minor metals" as they call the lifeblood raw materials of heavy industry.

These taxes and reduced export licenses make it cost effective for users of tungsten, for example, to move their production to China where the parts their Chinese domestic workers make with the company's proprietary technologies transfer their costs for the labour and the value of the technology to China. In return the companies get all the tungsten products that they need and there is no export tax on the contained tungsten in parts made in China for export.

According to an announcement by the Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) today, China has released guidelines to cap tungsten 2007, in order to restrict excessive tungsten mining. China aims to maintain output of tungsten concentrate (65% grade tungsten oxide) at under 59,270 tonnes, a 210-tonne increase from last year. The MLR will conduct regular inspections in order to control the production of tungsten concentrate, and mining capacity contracts will also be set up.

Bankers and investors also seem not to notice that before the current program was announced to use Chinese foreign exchange reserves to buy necessary commodities and commodity production globally there was the plan to buy or obtain western technologies at any cost in the short term. It doesn't seem to dawn on the bankers and investors that the plans are part and parcel of the same thing, the creation of an economically independent China.

China Molybdenum could not go "public," and would have no reason to do so, if it didn't already have the technology in hand to modernize. The plan is working, and in the short run, if you have an exit strategy, i.e., a way to get your money out when you want to do so, China Molybdenum could be a good investment in tungsten as well as in molybdenum.

It's a perfect long-term win-lose for them-us.

[Firsteven]

US ferromolybdenum prices expected to rise

Ferromolybdenum prices have stabilized in the US market thanks to the exports restriction of the alloying material in China.

China's Customs has set minimum export prices for ferro-alloys, as the reference price was US$34 per pound for ferromolybdenum.

Basically, the US is dependent on material from China because there is no enough production produced.

The price will be likely to drive up to US$35 per pound due to lack of supply, said a trader in th US.

On the other hand, Chinese traders are worried about if Customs can't update the prices to reflect market changes in time.


News Date 4/19/2007 report by Bill Chen

http://www.yieh.com/2.2.01.01stainlesssteelnews.aspx?no=2198…

[Firsteven]

Stainless Steel News:


US FerroMolybdenum Prices Expected To Rise

Ferromolybdenum prices have stabilized in the US market thanks to the exports restriction of the alloying material in China.

China's Customs has set minimum export prices for ferro-alloys, as the reference price was US$34 per pound for ferromolybdenum.

Basically, the US is dependent on material from China because there is no enough production produced.

The price will be likely to drive up to US$35 per pound due to lack of supply, said a trader in th US.

On the other hand, Chinese traders are worried about if Customs can't update the prices to reflect market changes in time.


News Date 4/19/2007 report by Bill Chen
http://www.yieh. com/2.2.01. 01stainlesssteel news.aspx? no=21980&division=A5

Yieh Corp., established in 1997, is closely affiliated with Taiwan's biggest privately owned steel group, E-United Group (Formerly known as the Yieh Group). Yusco, Yieh Phui and Yieh Mau, part of the E-United Group are all shareholders in Yieh Corp. Yieh has been supplying stainless steel, galvanized steel, pre-painted steel and carbon steel sheets, plates and coils, pipes and tubes, fitting, bar and wire rod to a global customer base since our establishment. The company's head office is located in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, with offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou, China.

[Firsteven]

Wenn ich das bei einer Anfrage bei Wayne Cheveldayoff richtig verstanden habe, dann wird der Preis immer rückwirkend für die letzten beiden Wochen angegeben. Es werden dabei für die unterschiedlichen Molybdän Produkte und Qualitäten eventuell abweichende Preise eingestellt.

Daher stimmen in der Regel die Anzeigen auf den verschiedenen Homepages nicht überein.

Wie Schnucksche eben gepostet hat, werden momentan Molybdänprodukte am freien Markt für 34 bis 35 USD gehandelt. Dieser Preis gilt aber nicht für die Vertragskunden. Diese werden mit dem geposteten Preis beliefert. BluePearl erhält dabei aber durch die gute Qualität im Regelfalle einen 2 bis 3% Zuschlag auf dem offiziellen Preis.

Dies bedeutet aber für die offizielle Anzeige, dass der momentan höhere Preis wahrscheinlich erst in zwei Wochen auf den Homepages erscheinen wird.

Solange müssen wir wahrscheinlich noch mit den 28,75 oder 29 oder 30,25 USD Preisanzeigen leben.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Zur Info:

BluePearl hat das Geld für das Privat Placement von Sprott zwischenzeitlich erhalten.

Man wird das Geld wie angekündigt als Sondertilgung vom Kredit abbezahlen.

Über den Betrag hinaus will man aktuell keine Sonderzahlung leisten.

Man spart Geld für die 100 Mio. Zahlung an den Alteigentümer im Januar 2008 (Molypreis ist > 25 $ und für die Inbetriebnahme von Davidson an.

Nach unseren Berechnungen hat man aktuell aber schon die gesamte Summe dafür im Cash.

Zusätzlich möchte man einen Molyproduzenten oder Kupfer/Molyproduzenten übernehmen. Wahrscheinlich in 2008. Dafür benötigt man Geld. Auf alle Fälle aber kein Explorer. Der Hinweis war deutlicher als deutlich.

Man trägt sich daher mit dem Gedanken den Kredit erst bis Ende 2008 vollständig abbezahlen zu wollen.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Hallo schnucksche,

da sind wir einer Meinung. Vor allem bin ich von Wayne noch nie belogen worden.

Will er keine Antwort geben, dann sagt er das deutlich. Meine Frage, ob Sprott schon Moly bei BluePearl gekauft und eingelagert hat, wurde mit dem Hinweis beantwortet, das sie keine Aussagen über Geschäfte mit Kunden geben.

Auf die Frage, ob noch mit weiteren Verkäufen aus dem Bestand zu rechnen sei, bekam ich die Antwort, dass sie den Bestand überwiegend als Sicherheitsbestand für ihre Stammkunden halten werden.

Da ja Moly gerade wieder knapp ist, wird Sprott mit dem Kauf von 2,5 bis 3 Mio. IB aus einem ohnehin knappen Markt dem Preis gerade noch einen kleinen Anstoss mit geben.

Es sieht also wieder gut aus.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Eric Sprott Interview


u.a. zu Blue Pearl!


http://continuumresources.com/LE041907.pdf

[Firsteven]

neues Fact-Sheet auf der Homepage vorhanden - vom 18.04.2007


http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/Factsheet-Apr18-07.pdf

[Firsteven]

Nach der Preisdebatte heute, habe ich einmal die aktuellen Preissituation bei Wayne angefragt.

Hier ist die Antwort und die Einschätzungen für die Zukunft:
As for the moly price, the price for moly oxide is about US$28-29 per
pound
in the U.S. The price for moly when combined with iron
(ferromolybdenum) is
about $31 to $33 per pound. I have not seen higher prices since early
March
and then moly oxide got to only $30 per pound. So I don't know where
the
higher prices you talk about would be. If it is a forecast, I haven't
seen
the moly price being forecast that high. It did get to $40 per pound
in
2005, so it is not impossible. However, Blue Pearl doesn't make
specific
price forecasts. We say it looks good for the moly price to be strong
but we
don't give a specific price.

Meine Frage, ob ausser Moly auch andere Rohstoffe ins Portfolio genommen werden sollen hat er mir mit den schon bekannten Statements geantwortet.
We have been saying that we want to stick to moly mining, except
perhaps for
a copper mine that also has moly. We have also said that if we do an
acquisition, it will involve a mine that is already producing or close
to
producing. We do not want to purchase a development company because we
don't
want to spend the time and money to develop it (new mine would cost
$500 to
$700 million capital investment) because it takes so long, 4 to 6 years to
bring a mine into production.

Frage: Welcher der vielen Explorer in BC geht in der nächsten Zeit, spätestens Anfang 2008, in Produktion.

Wie sieht das bei den beiden Sprott-Beteiligungen aus? Könnten das eventuelle Übernahemziele sein? Würde das die dortige Aktionärsstruktur erlauben (Großer Anteil einzelner Personen)?

therefore

[Firsteven]

von cube-libre



interview von david pescod, canaccord, mit mr. sprott!!!

http://continuumresources.com/LE041907.pdf

die (uns nicht gänzlich unbekannten...) kernaspekte in gestraffter form:

> mr. sprott erwartet steigende molypreise!

> wichtig für bpm ("dominating thing"): ipo von china moly! sprott wörtlich zu den auswirkungen auf bpm: "...that blue pearl can increase reasonably dramatically from these levels to get the same value as china molybdenum."
- china moly sei ein "international investment play"
- bpm sei der nächst größere wert (in dem sektor)
- aus dem china moly ipo sei kaufinteresse für bpm zu erwarten

> auf die frage zu seinen drei börsenfavoriten sagt sprott bzgl. bpm:
- "we´re huge believers in the molybdenum story and I guess our biggest investment is blue pearl"
- sprott erwartet, daß viel bei bpm passiert: " I think that there lots of things are happening there"
- und nochmals der querverweis zu china moly: "...and I think the fact that china molybdenum is going to be popular is going to cause blue pearl to rise in my opinion"
- "so I guess that blue pearl is the work horse in the moly area and we are going to stick with ist"

[Firsteven]

Hallo therefore,

gerne stelle ich meine Informationen zum Thema "Vertragliche Bindung der Verkäufe" bei BPM, ergänzt um neueste Quellen, hier noch einmal ein:

Aus der Präsentation von 21.11.2006 (Tondokument, abzuhören über www.bluepearl.ca) stammt die Information, dass etwa 70% der Produktion aufgrund von festen Lieferverträgen an Kunden gehen. Es wird die vertraglich vereinbarte Menge geliefert und dann der Preis berechnet, der sich aus dem Durchschnittspreis des Vormonates aus 2 einschlägigen Publikationen (Ryans Notes und Platts Metals Week) ergibt.
Aus dieser Sicht ist es zumindest für die Preisbildung nicht wichtig, wie lange die Lieferverträge laufen, es kann immer ein Preis nahe dem aktuellen Marktpreis berechnet werden.
Oder anders ausgedrückt, Blue Pearl (damals noch Thompson Creek) hat den künftigen Absatz durch Verträge über die Lieferung bestimmter Mengen gesichert, es aber wohlweislich vermieden, diese Mengen zu einem festen Preis liefern zu müssen. Bei Preissteigerungen auf dem Spot-Markt kann Blue Pearl diese höheren Preise ab dem folgenden Monat ebenfalls berechnen. Und jede Preissteigerung erhöht mit einem gewaltigen Hebel den Gewinn von Blue Pearl.

Zur Finanzierung der Phase-6 Minenentwicklung hat Thompson Creek 2005 ein Abkommen getroffen, nach dem 5% der TC-Produktion (also nur der Produktionemenge der Thompson-Creek-Mine - Endako ist nicht betroffen) der Phase 6 beginnend ab 2008 zu einen Preis zwischen 4,50 und 7,50 Dollar pro Pfund verkauft werden. Weitere 5% sollen mit einem Abschlag von 20% auf den aktuellen Preis verkauft werden, wenn der Preis unter 20$ liegt (jedoch nicht unter 4,50$), bzw. mit einem Abschlag von 10%, wenn der Preis über 20$ liegt.
Es dürfte sich dabei um jeweils rund 4 Mio Pfund handeln, verteilt über einen Zeitraum von etwa 4 Jahren. Der jährliche Gesamterlös dürfte dadurch um etwa 3% sinken, gegenüber einem Verkauf zum vollen Marktpreis (Quelle: Anual Information Form vom 2.4.2007 www.sedar.com).

Für den Rest der Gesamtproduktion gilt:
Die dann noch verfügbare Restmenge wird zum "Spotpreis" verkauft. Dies ist nach meiner Auffassung so zu verstehen, dass BPM sich zwar an den veröffentlichten aktuellen Preisen orientiert, jedoch je nach Verhandlungsgeschick der Beteiligten einen für beide Seiten akzeptablen Preis aushandelt. Wie wir gehört haben, ist BPM hier in einer komfortablen Verhandlungsposition, da sehr hochwertiges Moly produziert wird. So kann im allg. ein Preisaufschlag von einigen Prozent erzielt werden.

chartex

[Firsteven]

http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=50268

China Moly prices $943 million IPO at the top
By Anette Jönsson | 20 April 2007

Positive sentiment for the specialty metals sector overshadows lack of discount versus its main Hong Kong-listed comparable.

As the bookrunners had already flagged that there was solid interest by increasing the upper end of the price range by 6.3% three days into the roadshow, it came as no surprise that China Molybdenum’s IPO was priced at top end.

The price was fixed at HK$6.80 for a total deal size of HK$7.3 billion ($943 million), which makes China Moly the third largest Hong Kong IPO so far this year after China Citic Bank and real estate developer Country Garden.

Country Garden raised $1.7 billion, while China Citic Bank could raise as much as $3.7 billion from the H-share portion of its dual-listing. The bank is due to fix the price today (April 20) for a combined A- and H-share IPO of up to $5.4 billion.
advertisement


The institutional portion of China Moly’s IPO attracted more than 700 individual orders and ended up more than 200 times covered, according to sources. The book included specialist funds looking at the specialty metals sector as well as all the usual China funds and private banking interest, they say.

The institutional subscription ratio is based on the $311.5 million worth of shares that are left for institutional investors after adjusting for the cornerstone tranche and the fact that retail investors will get half the total deal size.

The retail tranche was boosted to 50% from 10% after the Hong Kong public asked for almost 400 times the number of shares originally set side for them, tying up close to HK$294 billion ($37 billion) between them. That would put China Moly on par with Bank of China in terms of retail popularit, but slightly behind Country Garden, which attracted about $42 billion of retail demand.

While metals and mining may seem like the odd one out among traditional retail favourites such as banks and property developers, investors are warming more and more to commodities-related investments, and while it may have a tough name, China Moly’s story was pretty easy to understand, one observer argues.

The company operates one of the largest pure molybdenum mines in the world with molybdenum as well as tungsten reserves. It produces primarily molybdenum which is a specialty metal used to harden steel and which is in huge demand within China’s rapidly growing stainless steel industry. However, part of the IPO proceeds will go towards setting up its own tungsten recovery facilities, allowing this metal to become a key growth driver in coming years – all according to syndicate research.

The bookbuilding also coincided with something of a re-rating of specialty metals stocks, which was partly prompted by higher metals prices, and partly perhaps by China Moly’s pending listing which helped attract focus to the sector. During the roadshow UBS raised its global forecast for molybdenum prices by 13% for 2007 and 10% for 2008 following higher prices in the first quarter – a move which caught a lot of attention since it was one of the bookrunners for the IPO together with Morgan Stanley.

Toronto-listed Blue Pearl Mining, which is the only pure molybdenum player that is publicly listed, has seen its share price gain 33% since the beginning of April and the stock is up a massive 89% since early March. This has lifted its valuation to a 2007 P/E multiple of about 11.5 times from 8.7 times at the start of this month.

One notable exception to this trend was Hong Kong-listed Hunan Nonferrous, which produces tungsten and is considered the closest comparable to China Moly. After the company reported what one observer referred to as “less than stellar earnings” the stock has been on a declining trend, falling 18% from the start of China Moly’s road show a close of HK$4.78 yesterday. As a result HNF’s valuation has dropped from a 2007 P/E of about 17.8 times to 14.6 times.

After raising the upper end of the price range, China Moly was valued at up to 14.8 times its 2007 earnings, and as HNF came down the initial gap between the two tightened from a discount of 22% to a slight premium at the time of pricing. Still, one source close to the offers said once momentum started building in the book, investors stopped focusing on relative valuations.

The company offered 22.7% of its issued share capital, or 1.08 billion new H shares, at a price between HK$5 and HK$6.80 per share. There is a 10% greenshoe which could boost the total takings to $1.04 billion.

Eight cornerstone investors, including Hong Kong tycoons such as Li Ka-shing and Lee Shau Kee and the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore (GIC), bought a combined $160 million worth of stock, or about 17% of the deal before the greenshoe.

China Moly’s shares are due to start trading on April 26.


Copyright FinanceAsia.com Ltd., a subsidiary of Haymarket Media Ltd

[Vinyard]

#835

Ich denke da ganz schwer an Mercator Minerals als Übernahmekandidat, aber da sollte man sich beeilen, die werden auch nicht billiger....

[Firsteven]

China Moly IPO...400 X (Retail) & 200 X (Institutional)

http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=50268

China Moly prices $943 million IPO at the top
By Anette Jönsson | 20 April 2007

Positive sentiment for the specialty metals sector overshadows lack of discount versus its main Hong Kong-listed comparable.

As the bookrunners had already flagged that there was solid interest by increasing the upper end of the price range by 6.3% three days into the roadshow, it came as no surprise that China Molybdenum's IPO was priced at top end.

The price was fixed at HK$6.80 for a total deal size of HK$7.3 billion ($943 million), which makes China Moly the third largest Hong Kong IPO so far this year after China Citic Bank and real estate developer Country Garden.

Country Garden raised $1.7 billion, while China Citic Bank could raise as much as $3.7 billion from the H-share portion of its dual-listing. The bank is due to fix the price today (April 20) for a combined A- and H-share IPO of up to $5.4 billion.
advertisement


The institutional portion of China Moly's IPO attracted more than 700 individual orders and ended up more than 200 times covered, according to sources. The book included specialist funds looking at the specialty metals sector as well as all the usual China funds and private banking interest, they say.

The institutional subscription ratio is based on the $311.5 million worth of shares that are left for institutional investors after adjusting for the cornerstone tranche and the fact that retail investors will get half the total deal size.

The retail tranche was boosted to 50% from 10% after the Hong Kong public asked for almost 400 times the number of shares originally set side for them, tying up close to HK$294 billion ($37 billion) between them. That would put China Moly on par with Bank of China in terms of retail popularit, but slightly behind Country Garden, which attracted about $42 billion of retail demand.

While metals and mining may seem like the odd one out among traditional retail favourites such as banks and property developers, investors are warming more and more to commodities-related investments, and while it may have a tough name, China Moly's story was pretty easy to understand, one observer argues.

The company operates one of the largest pure molybdenum mines in the world with molybdenum as well as tungsten reserves. It produces primarily molybdenum which is a specialty metal used to harden steel and which is in huge demand within China's rapidly growing stainless steel industry. However, part of the IPO proceeds will go towards setting up its own tungsten recovery facilities, allowing this metal to become a key growth driver in coming years – all according to syndicate research.

The bookbuilding also coincided with something of a re-rating of specialty metals stocks, which was partly prompted by higher metals prices, and partly perhaps by China Moly's pending listing which helped attract focus to the sector. During the roadshow UBS raised its global forecast for molybdenum prices by 13% for 2007 and 10% for 2008 following higher prices in the first quarter – a move which caught a lot of attention since it was one of the bookrunners for the IPO together with Morgan Stanley.

Toronto-listed Blue Pearl Mining, which is the only pure molybdenum player that is publicly listed, has seen its share price gain 33% since the beginning of April and the stock is up a massive 89% since early March. This has lifted its valuation to a 2007 P/E multiple of about 11.5 times from 8.7 times at the start of this month.

One notable exception to this trend was Hong Kong-listed Hunan Nonferrous, which produces tungsten and is considered the closest comparable to China Moly. After the company reported what one observer referred to as "less than stellar earnings" the stock has been on a declining trend, falling 18% from the start of China Moly's road show a close of HK$4.78 yesterday. As a result HNF's valuation has dropped from a 2007 P/E of about 17.8 times to 14.6 times.

After raising the upper end of the price range, China Moly was valued at up to 14.8 times its 2007 earnings, and as HNF came down the initial gap between the two tightened from a discount of 22% to a slight premium at the time of pricing. Still, one source close to the offers said once momentum started building in the book, investors stopped focusing on relative valuations.

The company offered 22.7% of its issued share capital, or 1.08 billion new H shares, at a price between HK$5 and HK$6.80 per share. There is a 10% greenshoe which could boost the total takings to $1.04 billion.

Eight cornerstone investors, including Hong Kong tycoons such as Li Ka-shing and Lee Shau Kee and the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore (GIC), bought a combined $160 million worth of stock, or about 17% of the deal before the greenshoe.

China Moly's shares are due to start trading on April 26.


Copyright FinanceAsia.com Ltd., a subsidiary of Haymarket Media Ltd

[Firsteven]

Sprott Canadian Growth Fund Big Investments Posted By: doughboy
Post Time: 4/23/2007 01:55

Sprott Canadian Equity Fund
Statement of Investment Portfolio MINING AND PRECIOUS METALS

15,095,131 High River Gold Mines Ltd (HRG-T)

BASE METALS
4,658,900 Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (BLE-T)
997,400 Blue Pearl Mining Ltd.,Warrants (BLE.WT-T)

URANIUM
6,047,032 Strathmore Minerals Corp.(STM-TSX)

OTHER
1,578,700 Pinetree Capital Ltd. (PNP-T)
3,234,700 United Protection Security Group (UZZ-TSX)

Total Investments 1,004,824,045 1,497,895,67930
He is up $500 million, buy what he buys and make millions!!!

[Firsteven]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/china-mol…


20.04. / 11:12 China Molybdenum (3993) said fixed prc at top-end $6.8 Chong Hing Securities (HK)
17.04. / 07:39 China Molybdenum Has More upside Vs CITIC Bk-KGI Dao Heng Securities (HK)
16.04. / 02:51 CITIC Bk,China Molybdenum IPO Dao Heng Securities (HK)
14.04. / 02:10 China Moly chase despite price rise The Standard (HK)
12.04. / 11:46 China Molybdenum prices Hong Kong IPO at 5.0-6.80 hkd per ... AFX News (GB)
12.04. / 11:13 China Molybdenum (3993) to raise up to $7.4B from IPO Chong Hing Securities (HK)
11.04. / 11:40 China Molybdenum to issue 1.08 bln shrs at 5.0-6.4 hkd ... AFX News (GB)
11.04. / 09:42 China Molybdenum (3993) FY07 payout ratio not < 30% Chong Hing Securities (HK)
11.04. / 09:42 China Molybdenum (3993) int'l placing 5x over-subscribed Chong Hing Securities (HK)
10.04. / 11:53 China Moly IPO could hit $997m, one of the largest on HKEX Mineweb (ZA)
10.04. / 02:10 China Moly to seek $6.9b The Standard (HK)
27.03. / 02:10 China Moly gears for 729m yuan expansion The Standard (HK)


China-Moly:
WKN A0MND2

[Firsteven]

CMOC<03993> - New Listing

Market participants are requested to note that China Molybdenum
Co., Ltd. has been approved for listing. Trading in its H shares
will commence at 9:30 a.m. on Thursday, 26/04/2007 under the
following particulars:-

Stock Code Stock Short Name Board Lot
---------- ---------------- ---------
3993 CMOC 1,000 H shares


http://www.kgieworld.com/kgi_site/news_text_main.asp?daily_n…

[mfierke]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.963.438 von Firsteven am 24.04.07 06:24:45

sage danke für die news und wichtigen Börsendaten. Du bist einfach immer wieder lobenswert

werden sehen, was am Donnerstag los ist.
Gruß mfierke

[Cuba_Libre]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.963.452 von mfierke am 24.04.07 06:33:18

@firsteven unermüdlich! alle achtung...

[Firsteven]

MOLY OUTLOOK STRENGTHENS BLUE PEARL PROSPECTS High flying molybdenum miner Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. is getting more backing from UBS Securities, which raised the target price to $19.50 from $16 on continued strength in moly prices.

The stock, which has come from a 52-week low of $1.70, closed at $16.90 on the TSX Wednesday.

Analyst Brian MacArthur has “modestly increased” his forecast for moly prices next year, which should lift Blue Pearl's profit to $2.12 a share (U.S.) from an earlier estimate of $2.

“UBS continues to expect prices to remain well supported over the next couple of years given strong steel related demand and production constraints related to Chinese production problems and export regulation,” he writes.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070419.…

[Firsteven]

von cuba libre


habe post vom wallstreetreporter bekommen...möchte ich euch nicht vorenthalten:

The principals of Sprott Molybdenum Participation (TSX: MLY) founded the fund after being “very, very successful” investing in uranium and are now applying their expertise to a new metal, explains CEO Eric Sprott. “It’s a nice, easy way to play the molybdenum space,” he says. “When we looked at molybdenum, they call it sometimes the energy metal.” In fact, molybdenum’s application in pipeline, refineries, nuclear containment equipment, drill casings and other energy industry essentials indicates that demand will remain strong and non-cyclic in nature, Mr. Sprott says. An initial offering was massively oversubscribed and the goal is to outperform the TSX.

es folgt der hinweis auf das bereits beaknnte interview mit mr. sprott...

[Firsteven]

http://www.processingtalk.com:80/news/out/out102.html
Product category: Metals and Minerals Processing News
News Release from: Outokumpu Technology
Edited by the Processingtalk Editorial Team on 24 April 2007

Metal and Mineral
Grinding Technology Contracts
Outokumpu Technology has been awarded several new grinding technology contracts worth EUR 45 million by the customers in Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan.



There is no link to this Apr/07 report from Orion but they have classified the group listed into Producers, Development Stage and Exploration Stage...KR

Exhibit 1. Market Data for Selected Molybdenum Producers, Developers and Explorers:

Ticker Currency Shares O/S Shares O/S Closing Price Market Cap 52w High 52w Low

(Basic MM) (FD MM) ($) (FD $MM) ($) ($)

Producers

Blue Pearl Mining BLE-T CAD 108.0 140.3 $14.00 $1,964 $14.12 $1.70

Freeport/Phelps Dodge FCX-N USD 197.2 227.9 $69.85 $15,921 $72.20 $43.10

Rio Tinto RTP-ADR USD 251.4 251.4 $246.73 $62,028 $253.33 $176.09

Taseko Mines TKO-V CAD 128.5 159.7 $3.40 $543 $4.66 $2.10

Developers

Adanac Molybdenum AUA-V CAD 72.6 98.6 $2.38 $235 $2.80 $0.90

Mercator Minerals ML-T CAD 72.2 82.6 $4.70 $388 $5.10 $1.60

Northern Orion NNO-T CAD 154.0 221.2 $5.28 $1,168 $6.96 $3.85

Quadra Mining QUA-T CAD 38.1 45.1 $11.77 $531 $13.35 $6.93

Roca Mines ROK-V CAD 72.8 91.7 $2.90 $266 $3.18 $0.50

Explorers

Copper Fox Metals CUU-V CAD 64.2 76.8 $1.34 $103 $1.61 $0.36

Eagle Plains Resources EPL-V CAD 53.3 62.4 $0.92 $57 $1.95 $0.47

Galway Resources GWY-V CAD 31.3 44.5 $1.48 $66 $1.77 $0.35

Geodex Minerals GXM-V CAD 39.0 47.0 $0.92 $43 $1.03 $0.18

Georgia Ventures GVI-V CAD 39.3 43.8 $0.72 $32 $0.84 $0.14

Idaho General Mines GMO-AMEX USD 43.4 59.3 $6.05 $359 $6.79 $1.80

Inca Pacific Resources IPR-V CAD 36.4 40.0 $1.22 $49 $1.30 $0.63

Moly Mines MOL-T CAD 51.6 67.2 $4.31 $290 $4.80 $0.95

New Cantech Ventures NCV-V CAD 58.0 84.6 $1.11 $94 $1.23 $0.28

Sultan Minerals SUL-V CAD 72.1 99.0 $0.30 $30 $0.40 $0.13

Tenajon Resources TJS-V CAD 43.6 54.6 $0.73 $40 $0.96 $0.20

U.S. Energy Corp USEG-Q USD 20.1 25.8 $5.71 $147 $7.25 $3.30

Virgin Metals VGM-V CAD 58.3 74.4 $0.62 $46 $0.80 $0.25

[Firsteven]

Molybdenum: Its Time has come to Rally…

Written by Ian L. Cooper
Tuesday, 24 April 2007
Overview: With nickel climbing so ferociously over the last year, the momentum has begun spilling into molybdenum, another metal (like nickel) that can enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel (about 10% of the world stainless steel production utilizes molybdenum). Molybdenum is used with chromium to augment corrosion resistance.

Editor, Red Zone Profits

Commodities have retaken the headlines, with red-hot nickel nailing new highs. In fact, commodities are so hot that the Rogers International Commodity Index has already tacked on about 20% in value this year alone. But what’s with nickel?

Nickel has been scalding hot (up 45% in price), more than any other London Metal Exchange- traded metal. It’s now four times the price of copper and stands as the most profitable of all metals to mine, all while nickel inventories trade at lows. But that run is far from over. Not as long as nickel inventories are expected to remain tight up to 2010; not while mining companies have problems expanding capacity to meet demand from China’s stainless steel makers; and not as long as China’s nickel demand is expected to rise 33% by 2011 from 2006’s 18% demand.

You see, nickel is a vital ingredient in stainless steel. In fact, two-thirds of the world’s nickel supply is used in stainless steel production. Stainless steel isn’t just used for high-end kitchen appliances and car parts. It’s also crucial to natural gas and oil pipeline builders because it doesn’t corrode. And wouldn’t you know it… China has recently earned the distinction of the world’s largest stainless steel producer.

In 2006, China produced over 5 million tons of stainless steel. That was a 60%, or 3 million ton, increase over its 2005 totals. That growth more than quadrupled the world average of 14%. It’s a fact -- China is fueling demand for nickel in a way that we’ve never experienced. And the smart money is going to follow this trend as long as it continues, which is for the foreseeable future.

More of a reason to own nickel-related stocks is that low supply levels are expected to keep the market “tight” right up to 2010, with this year’s average prices already forecast to soar another 34%. In fact, according to MarketWatch.com, “Consumption growth will slow to 2.9% in 2007, down from 11.9% last year but expected to rebound again to 7.4% in 2008.”

The smart bet on the commodity super cycle is nickel. Keep an eye on it.


Investing in Nickel: Giving Rally to Molybdenum Ancient Greek “Secret” Turns $5,000 into $519,645… In Just Four Years… You can become a part of this exceptional group by taking a 90-day, risk-free test drive of this powerful trading system.
click here...
Those who missed the nickel and uranium runs can take comfort in knowing that molybdenum is the next super-hot investment. This is the metal that can resist heat, cold, and corrosion better than steel.

And thanks to increased demand from the likes of, you guessed it, China -- the white-hot metal has been soaring since January. In part, China can be blamed for the supply issue. You see, back in 2005, Hubei residents blamed molybdenum mines for poisoning the Chaoshui River. In response, rioters destroyed about 200 molybdenum mines, crippling global supply.


As of today, molybdenum interest is so heavy that the London Metal Exchange announced plans for a molybdenum market, which should fuel more interest in molybdenum-related companies, such as:

Moly Mines (listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and Toronto)…

A global commodities boom... a desperate world superpower... an inevitable Chinese "partnership" and...
The 22-cent company that broke a 30-year lockdown and pushed "The Project" back on line.
How this tiny micro-cap miner grabbed the rights to re-open a classified hot zone of precious metals and could deliver you at least 809% by the end of October 2007.


For the specific details,
click here...
Blue Pearl (BLO.TO), which, according to reports could produce as much molybdeunum in 2007 as Cameco produces uranium. Blue Pearl, the largest publicly traded molybdenum producer, has plans to mine about one- fifth of the world’s molybdenum this year alone…

Idaho General Mines Inc. (GMO) is permitting and developing the Mount Hope project, a project estimated to hold 1.2 billion pounds of recoverable molybdenum. Once in production, the mine is expected to produce approximately 30-35 million pounds of molybdenum annually, which potentially positions Mount Hope as one of the world’s largest and lowest cost molybdenum producers.


Investing in Commodities: Nickel Gain Is Molybdenum’s Gain
With nickel climbing so ferociously over the last year, the momentum has begun spilling into molybdenum, another metal (like nickel) that can enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel (about 10% of the world stainless steel production utilizes molybdenum). Molybdenum is used with chromium to augment corrosion resistance.

And while molybdenum deposits are more common than that of nickel, there’s still the problem of short-term supply for a $12 billion molybdenum market. And there’s no shortage of demand. In fact, global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a 4% clip every year for the last 50 years. In China, alone, demand for the metal shot up some 20%.


Plus, consider this -- nuclear plants, depending on their design, will require between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, according to MarketWatch.com.

While the prospects of higher nickel prices are up in the air, one thing’s for certain. Global production will continue to struggle, as demand continues to mushroom. The $30-plus metal, in our opinion, has a real shot of running to historical highs of $40 and beyond given the increased demand from the likes of China.

Investing in Commodities: How to Invest in Molybdenum
As I stated above, these are the stocks to watch:

Moly Mines (listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and Toronto)…

Blue Pearl (BLE.TO), which, according to reports could produce as much molybdeunum in 2007 as Cameco produces uranium. Blue Pearl, the largest publicly traded molybdenum producer, has plans to mine about one-fifth of the world’s molybdenum this year alone…

Idaho General Mines Inc. (GMO) is permitting and developing the Mount Hope project, a project estimated to hold 1.2 billion pounds of recoverable molybdenum. Once in production, the mine is expected to produce approximately 30-35 million pounds of molybdenum annually, which potentially positions Mount Hope as one of the world’s largest and lowest cost molybdenum producers.

There you have it. Even if you missed the nickel and uranium runs, welcome to molybdenum’s 2007 bull market.

Take care,

Ian L. Cooper
Editor, Red Zone Profits

http://www.molyseek.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=vi…

[Firsteven]

BLEFF:US
Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
Blue Pearl Mining Rated New `Buy' at Desjardins :BLE CN

By Sondra Kennedy

Princeton, New Jersey, April 24 (Bloomberg Data) -- Blue Pearl Mining Ltd (BLE CN) was rated new ``buy'' in new coverage by analyst John Redstone at Desjardins Securities. The price target is C$21.40 per share.



Last Updated: April 24, 2007 15:02 EDT


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=con…

[eric_4]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 28.981.105 von Firsteven am 25.04.07 06:17:31

Hallo Firsteven,

vielleicht wird es ja hier registriert...

Hallo liebe BPM – Investierten,

ich verfolge dieses Board seit August 2006 und bin seit der Bekanntgabe der Übernahme von c mit 90 % meines Kapitals eingestiegen, einfach weil das der genialste Deal war, den ich je sehen durfte. Man beachte lediglich das übernommene Anlagevermögen und die Ressourcen…

Der Hit schlechthin.., dazu Super-kompetente_User wie Chartex, Therefore, Schnucksche, der witzige Cuba, der fleissige First Steven und viele andere, ein besseres Forum habe ich noch nie gesehen….

Vielen Dank an alle Leistungsträger hier..(einige sogenannte heilige Figuren sind da mal ausgeklammert…( Nicht_Grüsse an Papst und Konsorten )

Ich schliesse mich der Bewertung der Leistungsträgern voll an und taxiere den fairen Wert von BPM auf 40 - 60 Euro nach meinem heutigen Informationsstand.

Wenn die Updates zu Thompson Creek und dem Davidson-Projekt kommen, muss neu gerechnet werden.

An dieser Stelle muss ich einmal auf Eric Sprott hinweisen, Uran vor drei Jahren,
Preissteigerung von Uran während der letzten 7 Jahre von Faktor 16…., lol, jetzt setzt Eric Sprott auf Molybdän…

Nimmt man nur 25 % dieser Performance zukünftig für Molybdän in die Rechnung auf, landen wir bei BPM in einer Range von 200-300 Euro pro Share…Eric is smart….

Ich rege zudem mal den Gedanken an, das BPM(Thompson Creek) für die meisten Fonds bisher unsichtbar ist. Weil, Explorer werden von denen nicht gescannt und nicht börsennotierte Privatunternehmen auch nicht, es würde keinen Sinn ergeben…

Dazu kommt die angekündigte Übernahme eines Kupfer_Molybdän-Produzenten,
wird das auch eine Privat-Mine sein? Mit ähnlichem Benefit????

Last not least befinden wir uns in einem Super-Rohstoff-Zyklus, dieses Glück geschieht einmal je Generation..

Fazit: Haltet eure Shares fest und ihr werdet höchstwahrscheinlich sehr vermögend werden….

Liebe Grüsse

Eric (ehemals profit) wenige werden es verstehen…

[pintador]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.004.593 von eric_4 am 25.04.07 22:07:20

Man soll nie alle Eier in einen Korb legen.

[Firsteven]

Wirtschaftsnews - von heute 11:04

China Molybdenum IPO 398 - fach überzeichnet

Hongkong 25.04.07 (www.emfis.com)
Morgen startet das Unternehmen China Molybdenum Co Ltd unter dem Stock-Code 3993-HK seinen Börsengang. Das Unternehmen platziert 1,0836 Mrd. Shares zu einem Preis von 6,80 HKD, oberes Ende der Preisspanne, und nimmt darüber 7,368 Mrd. HKD ein.
Im Vorfeld waren Die Shares bereits 398 fach überzeichnet.
Die Aktie wird an der Berliner Börse in den Handel einbezogen: ISIN CN000A0MND26

WKN A0MND2

http://www.emfis.de/global/global/nachrichten/beitrag/id/Chi…

[Firsteven]

Zitat: ich möchte hier mal einen Gedanken, der mich schon eine ganze Weile beschäftigt, zur Diskussion stellen:
Sollte (und davon gehe ich aus) zur nächten HV von BPM, wie angekündigt, eine Namensänderung stattfinden, müssen dann die noch offenen shorts nicht zwangsläufig gedeckt werden?
Ich hatte dies mal gelesen und bin mir nicht sicher, ob das im Fall BPM zutrifft!?
Wenn ja, dann könnte ich mir daraus bis zur HV (zusätzlich zum Newsflow) einen Kursanstieg durch short-Deckung sehr gut vorstellen.
Wie seht ihr das?
----------------------------------

Hallo eye,

eine gute Frage. Über dieses Thema habe ich mir aufgrund eines anderen Postings auch schon ein paar Gedanken gemacht, bin aber noch zu keinem entgültigen Schluß gekommen.

Mal ein Beispiel aus der Praxis:
Anadonda Gold hat aufgrund eines Zusammenschlußes (Reverse Takeover) mit einer anderen Gesellschaft einen Aktiensplitt durchgeführt und den Namen geändert in Anaconda Mining. Gleichzeitig erfolgte ein Delisting an der TSX-Venture und ein Listing an der TSX. Das Kürzel ANX ist dabei gleich geblieben, jedoch wurde die ISIN geändert von CA03240N1033 auf CA03240P1080. Insofern wäre nach meiner Auffassung in Kanada ein Covern von evtl. vorhandenen Short-Positionen nötig gewesen, da es sich um eine andere Aktie handelt.

In Deutschland wurde aufgrund der Namensänderung ein neues Kürzel vergeben (GJ2A statt vorher GJ2). Die WKN hat sich ebenfalls geändert von A0B9BQ nach A0MQF0.
Short-Positionen hätten demnach ebenfalls glattgestellt werden müssen.

Bezogen auf Blue Pearl könnte man nun vordergründig das Gleiche vermuten, falls der Name des Unternehmens von Blue Pearl Mining auf Thompson Creek Minerals geändert werden würde. Insbesondere ist eine Änderung des Kürzels an der TSX von BLE auf TCM (scheint noch nicht vergeben zu sein) zu erwarten.
Andererseits handelt es sich bei Anaconda nach dem Zusammenschluß um ein völlig anderes Unternehmen, während bei Blue Pearl sich nur der Name ändert.
Entscheident dürfte also sein, ob eine neue ISIN vergeben wird (dann Glattstellung der Shortpositionen erforderlich), oder nicht. Letzten Endes bin ich mit meiner Analyse also nicht wirklich zu einem Ergebniss gekommen.

Falls die Shortpositionen glattgestellt werden müssen, so gehe ich allerdings nicht davon aus, dass "automatisch" die gleichen Akteure sofort neue Positionen aufbauen. Der Verlust ist dann erst einmal realisiert und nicht mehr weg zu diskutieren. Dies ist nach meiner Ansicht zumindest eine Hemmschwelle zum Eingehen neuer Positionen. Das Aufrecht erhalten alter Positionen, die in die Verlustzone geraten sind, ist da viel leichter, da diese "verborgen" in den Büchern schlummern (ich glaube eher an Hedgefonds usw. als an private Spekulanten) und vorerst unentdeckt (vor den Augen der eigentlichen Anleger oder vom "Boss") auf einen Kursrutsch warten können (dürfte in meinen Augen eine vergebliche Hoffnung sein).

Diese inzwischen wohl wieder auf deutlich über 4 Mio angestiegenen (meine Vermutung aufgrund der Zahlen zum 15. und des Kursverlaufes der letzten Tage) leerverkauften Aktien sind durchaus geeignet, den Kurs deutlich nach oben zu beeinflussen, wenn sie gedeckt werden müssen. Allerdings wird zwischen dem Beschluß, den Namen zu ändern, und der tatsächlichen Durchführung an der Börse wohl einiges an Zeit vergehen. Mit einer Kursexplosion aus diesem Grund direkt nach der Hauptversammlung ist also weniger zu rechnen.
Wobei ich nicht abstreiten will, dass die zur Hauptversammlung veröffentlichten Zahlen vom 1. Quartal durchaus geeignet sein könnten, dem Kurs einen explosionsartigen Anstieg zu bescheren.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Was passiert wohl Morgen Nachmittag in Toronto wenn China Moly am 1. Tag z.B. 30% über dem Ausgabekurs liegt???
Wenn China Moly 400-fach überzeichnet war - dann gibt es da ein Megainteresse und die Investoren werden sich Morgen über die Börse massiv eindecken. Warten wir es ab. In ca. 6 Stunden sind wir schlauer!



25.04.2007 12:20
Aktien Hongkong schließen mit Konjunktursorgen knapp behauptet

HONGKONG (Dow Jones)--Konjunktursorgen haben am Mittwoch das Geschehen an der Börse in Hongkong dominiert. Nachdem der Markt am Mittag noch etwas deutlicher im Minus gelegen hatte, wurden die Minuszeichen in der zweiten Handelshälfte kleiner. Der STI beendete den Tag mit 0,2% bzw 36 Punkten im Minus bei 20.537 Zählern etwa in der Mitte seiner Tagesspanne. Auf der einen Seite sorge sich der Markt vor einer zu starken Konjunktur in China mit der Gefahr dort steigender Zinsen, auf der anderen Seite machten nach den unter den Erwartungen ausgefallenen US-Konjunkturdaten vom Vortag Ängste vor einer zu schwachen Konjunktur in den USA die Runde, hieß es.

Für eine Stimmungsaufhellung könnten im Laufe der Woche noch die Börsengänge von China Molybdenum und CITIC Bank sorgen, die erfolgreich über die Bühne gehen dürften, so ein Teilnehmer. Beide Emissionen seien mehrhundertfach überzeichnet. "Die knapp gewordene Liquidität wird nach den IPOs wieder zurückfließen; warten wir es ab, ob dies den Markt dann nach oben treibt", sagte ein Fondsmanager. HSBC gaben um 0,1% nach auf 144,40 HKD, China Mobile um 0,5% auf 73 HKD und Sun Hung Kai Properties um 0,4% auf 92 HKD. Bank of East Asia erholten sich im Verlauf von einem Abschlag von 2% und gingen unverändert mit 48,20 HKD aus dem Handel. Die Bank hatte mitgeteilt, rund 1,86 Mrd HKD für einen 25%-Anteil am malaysischen Finanzdienstleister Affin Holdings zu zahlen.

Chinesische Finanzwerte litten mehrheitlich unter der befürchteten Zinserhöhung in China. China Construction Bank, ICBC und China Life kamen um 0,2% bis 0,5% zurück. Die Analysten von Morgan Stanley hatten in einer Studie geschrieben, mit einer Beschleunigung der chinesischen Dämpfungsmaßnahmen zu rechnen. Lifestyle International gewannen 5,5% auf das Rekordhoch von 26,80 HKD. Das Unternehmen hatte angekündigt, vier Kaufhäuser in China für 750 Mio CNY zu kaufen.

DJG/DJN/gos -0-
http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2007-04/artikel-…

[Firsteven]

von sorby


China Moly-IPO
So stehts in allen Meldungen, 6,80 HKD.
Dao Heng Securities teilt heute mit, dass am "grauen Markt" schon + 51 % im Gespräch sind.
Da bin ich mal gespannt, wie die Perle dann morgen reagiert!!!!

[Firsteven]

Wichtig für Morgen!


http://www.hkex.com.hk/tradinfo/tradcal/tradcal_1.htm

http://24timezones.com/

http://www.yuonsec.com/ 3993

http://www.hkex.com.hk/invest/index.asp?id=company/quotemenu… 3993


TRADING HOURS

Trading is conducted on Monday to Friday (excluding public holidays) at the following times:
Pre-opening Session 09:30 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.
Morning Session 10:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.
Extended Morning Session 12:30 p.m. to 14:30 p.m.
Afternoon Session 14:30 p.m. to 16:00 p.m.
http://www.hkex.com.hk/tradinfo/tradcal/tradcal_1.htm
und hier gibt´s die aktuelle zeit für hongkong!

http://24timezones.com/de_weltzeit/hong_kong_aktuelle_zeit.p…

[Firsteven]

Ausgabepreis: 6,80 HKD = 4,2 Mrd. USD Marktkapitalisierung (lt. Homepage Blue Pearl.)

Aktuell steht China Moly bei 10,90 HKD = 6,72 Mrd. USD.
Quelle Kurs: http://www.yuonsec.com/ 3993 erfassen
KGV: 26,39 !!!
Ein Kurszuwachs von 60% am 1. Tag und das nach 2-3 Handelsstunden!

Zum Vergleich: Blue Pearl hat eine Marktkapitalisierung von 1,7 Mrd. USD!

China Moly ist aktuell 3,9 mal höher bewertet als Blue Pearl.

Was wird heute Nachmittag in Toronto passieren?
Ich gehe davon aus - sofern China Moly nicht einbricht und wir bei 60% im Plus schließen, dürften wir Blue Pearl heute erstmals über 20 CAD begrüßen dürfen.

Wenn man mal davon ausgeht, dass Blue Pearl derzeit mit einem KGV von 7 - na sagen wir 8 bewertet ist, und sich die Bewertung an China Moly annähern soll, dann müssten wir bei 58 CAD stehen bzw. rd. 38 EURO


Das dürfte einer der verrücktesten Tage bei Blue Pearl werden - seit der Thompson Creek Übernahme


Initial share sale reported for China Molybdenum
By Bei Hu Bloomberg News

HONG KONG: China Molybdenum raised 7.37 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $943 million, in a Hong Kong initial share sale, becoming the world's biggest publicly held producer of the steel ingredient, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The company sold 1.084 billion new shares, a 22.7 percent stake, at 6.80 dollars per share, said the people, declining to be identified before an announcement. Individual investors ordered about 400 times the stock on offer, enabling the sale's arrangers to raise the top end of the price range from 6.40 dollars per share.

Investors are piling into Chinese initial public offerings to tap annual economic growth of more than 10 percent. Government attempts to cool demand for commodities used in construction and manufacturing have been largely ineffectual, with stainless steel output forecast to grow 37 percent this year.

"Resources stocks have been quite hot over the last few months," said Kenny Tang, associate director of research at Tung Tai Securities in Hong Kong. "The valuation is not very high and the market thinks there should be more upside to the company after the listing."

Nick Footitt, a Morgan Stanley spokesman in Hong Kong, and Chris Cockerill for UBS in Hong Kong, declined to comment. The two firms helped arrange the sale. An official in China Moly's Luanchuan, Henan province head office, who refused to give his name, also declined to comment.

China Moly plans to raise production of the metal, used to harden steel, as demand from makers of Chinese stainless steel pushes prices to records.

The price in China of molybdenum concentrate, a semiprocessed form of the metal, has climbed 16 percent this year, according to research company Metal Bulletin. World stainless steel production jumped 17 percent last year, the International Stainless Steel Forum said on its Web site.

China, the world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 percent this year to 7.35 million metric tons, metals research firm Heinz Pariser said March 21.

Molybdenum accounts for 1 percent of the raw material used for stainless steel making, and 20 percent in terms of value because of its relatively high price.

"Recent history shows if you buy China IPOs, you will make money," said Andrew Clarke, a sales trader at SG Securities Hong Kong.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/bloomberg/sxmoly.php


26.04.2007 04:31
Hong Kong shares open higher on Dow milestone; China Molybdenum soars on debut
HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices opened higher after the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a milestone overnight as it swept past the 13,000 points level for the first time, dealers said.

China Molybdenum (Nachrichten) was in focus as it posted strong gains on its trading debut.

The Hang Seng Index opened up 135.71 points or 0.66 pct at 20,672.49.

China Molybdenum opened at 11.28 hkd, up 66 pct from its initial public offering price of 6.80 hkd.

(1 usd = 7.8 hkd)

[e-mail]


Market News CMOC (3993) debuts at $11.28, up 66%

(Infocast News) China Molybdenum (3993) debuted this morning at $11.28, up
$4.48, or 65.88%, over the offer price of $6.8 per share.

The company offered 1.084 billion H shares for its IPO (before exercise of an
over-allotment option for an additional 108.36 million H shares), originally
including 90% for international placing and 10% for public offering at $5-6.8
per share. At the upper end of $6.8 per share, the gross proceeds amounted to
$7.368 billion and net proceeds amounted to $7.1 billion (before exercise of the
over-allotment option).

The company received valid applications for 43.259 billion shares under the
public offering, representing an over-subscription of 398.21x. $294.16 billion
funds were frozen.

The shares under the international placing were also very significantly
over-subscribed.

[Firsteven]

Ausgabepreis: 6,80 HKD = 4,2 Mrd. USD Marktkapitalisierung (lt. Homepage Blue Pearl.)

Aktuell steht China Moly bei 10,90 HKD = 6,72 Mrd. USD.
Quelle Kurs: http://www.yuonsec.com/ 3993 erfassen
KGV: 26,39 !!!
Ein Kurszuwachs von 60% am 1. Tag und das nach 2-3 Handelsstunden!

Zum Vergleich: Blue Pearl hat eine Marktkapitalisierung von 1,7 Mrd. USD!

China Moly ist aktuell 3,9 mal höher bewertet als Blue Pearl.

Was wird heute Nachmittag in Toronto passieren?
Ich gehe davon aus - sofern China Moly nicht einbricht und wir bei 60% im Plus schließen, dürften wir Blue Pearl heute erstmals über 20 CAD begrüßen dürfen.

Wenn man mal davon ausgeht, dass Blue Pearl derzeit mit einem KGV von 7 - na sagen wir 8 bewertet ist, und sich die Bewertung an China Moly annähern soll, dann müssten wir bei 58 CAD stehen bzw. rd. 38 EURO


Das dürfte einer der verrücktesten Tage bei Blue Pearl werden - seit der Thompson Creek Übernahme


Initial share sale reported for China Molybdenum
By Bei Hu Bloomberg News

HONG KONG: China Molybdenum raised 7.37 billion Hong Kong dollars, or $943 million, in a Hong Kong initial share sale, becoming the world's biggest publicly held producer of the steel ingredient, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The company sold 1.084 billion new shares, a 22.7 percent stake, at 6.80 dollars per share, said the people, declining to be identified before an announcement. Individual investors ordered about 400 times the stock on offer, enabling the sale's arrangers to raise the top end of the price range from 6.40 dollars per share.

Investors are piling into Chinese initial public offerings to tap annual economic growth of more than 10 percent. Government attempts to cool demand for commodities used in construction and manufacturing have been largely ineffectual, with stainless steel output forecast to grow 37 percent this year.

"Resources stocks have been quite hot over the last few months," said Kenny Tang, associate director of research at Tung Tai Securities in Hong Kong. "The valuation is not very high and the market thinks there should be more upside to the company after the listing."

Nick Footitt, a Morgan Stanley spokesman in Hong Kong, and Chris Cockerill for UBS in Hong Kong, declined to comment. The two firms helped arrange the sale. An official in China Moly's Luanchuan, Henan province head office, who refused to give his name, also declined to comment.

China Moly plans to raise production of the metal, used to harden steel, as demand from makers of Chinese stainless steel pushes prices to records.

The price in China of molybdenum concentrate, a semiprocessed form of the metal, has climbed 16 percent this year, according to research company Metal Bulletin. World stainless steel production jumped 17 percent last year, the International Stainless Steel Forum said on its Web site.

China, the world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 percent this year to 7.35 million metric tons, metals research firm Heinz Pariser said March 21.

Molybdenum accounts for 1 percent of the raw material used for stainless steel making, and 20 percent in terms of value because of its relatively high price.

"Recent history shows if you buy China IPOs, you will make money," said Andrew Clarke, a sales trader at SG Securities Hong Kong.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/19/bloomberg/sxmoly.php


26.04.2007 04:31
Hong Kong shares open higher on Dow milestone; China Molybdenum soars on debut
HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices opened higher after the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a milestone overnight as it swept past the 13,000 points level for the first time, dealers said.

China Molybdenum (Nachrichten) was in focus as it posted strong gains on its trading debut.

The Hang Seng Index opened up 135.71 points or 0.66 pct at 20,672.49.

China Molybdenum opened at 11.28 hkd, up 66 pct from its initial public offering price of 6.80 hkd.

(1 usd = 7.8 hkd)

[e-mail]


Market News CMOC (3993) debuts at $11.28, up 66%

(Infocast News) China Molybdenum (3993) debuted this morning at $11.28, up
$4.48, or 65.88%, over the offer price of $6.8 per share.

The company offered 1.084 billion H shares for its IPO (before exercise of an
over-allotment option for an additional 108.36 million H shares), originally
including 90% for international placing and 10% for public offering at $5-6.8
per share. At the upper end of $6.8 per share, the gross proceeds amounted to
$7.368 billion and net proceeds amounted to $7.1 billion (before exercise of the
over-allotment option).

The company received valid applications for 43.259 billion shares under the
public offering, representing an over-subscription of 398.21x. $294.16 billion
funds were frozen.

The shares under the international placing were also very significantly
over-subscribed.

[betzo]

Guten Morgen zusammen!!! Das sieht ja super aus in Hongkong, sehr schön! Ich habe mal chartex´s Berechnungen mit neuen Zahlen gefüllt und komme auf eine Unterbewertung von BLE gegenüber China Moly, die selber fast nicht glauben kann! aufmerksam

Rechenweg:
China Molybdenum hat einen täglichen Cash-Flow von 0,46 Mio $, das ergibt einen Jahres-Cash-Flow von 0,46 x 365 = 167,9 Mio $.
Bezogen auf die Marktkapitalisierung ergibt sich 6700 Mio $ : 167,9 Mio $ = 39,9.

Blue Pearl hat einen täglichen Cash-Flow von 1,1 Mio $, das ergibt einen Jahres-Cash-Flow von 1,1 x 365 = 401,5 Mio $. Bei einem KGV wie oben, also 39,9 ergäbe sich dann eine Marktkapitalisierung von 401,5 x 39,9 = 16019 Mio $. Im Verhältnis zur oben angegebenen Marktkapitalisierung von 2300 Mio $ (fully diluted) müsste die Blue-Pearl-Aktie also noch 696% steigen.

[Algol]

Ich will die allgemeine Euphorie ein wenig bremsen (obwohl ich selber investiert bin). Ich erinnere mich gut an die Zeiten des Neuen Marktes, da wurde auch immer argumentiert, das KGV von XY ist zig Mal höher, also wird Wert sowieso sich vervielfachen. Letztlich sind dann alle gefallen. Da wir es hier mit Substanzwerten zu tun haben, hört hier die Analogie auf, trotzdem ist es möglich/wahrscheinlich, dass auch die Bewertung von China Moly sich Richtung BLE bewegen kann.

[schnucksche]

Nochmals einige Hinweise zur Frage einer evtl. Übernahme:

RSR hat dies in ihrem heutigen ausführlichen Bericht ja erneut aufgenommen. Wir hatten einiges schon vor Wochen hier im Board diskutiert.

Tatsache ist, dass die innere Stärke von BPM tatsächlich akuten Anlaß für solche Überlegungen bietet. jede minikorrektur wird sofort wieder zu massiven Nachkäufen in Kanada genutzt. Dies lässt sich sehr schon an den Volumina der letzten Wochen und vor allem auch am Chart erkennen.

Wir waren uns hier auch einig, dass wir eine Übernahme nicht begrüßen würde, dass ist auch jetzt noch so. Aber wir entscheiden nicht, wie und was gespielt wird.

Ich hatte beim PP für den Molyfonds darauf hingewiesen, dass ich dies mehr als begrüße, andere sahen dies mehr als kritischund sprachen von einem Geschenk an Sprott.

Ich kann dazu nur noch einmal wiederholen, was ich damals ausgeführt habe: Jede Aktie in sicheren Händen ist eine gute Aktie !!!

Es ist für BPM mehr denn je wichtig, viele Verbündete zu haben, die sich über den wahren Wert des Unternehmens bewusst sind und ie nicht bereit sind, für "einen Appel und ein Ei" diese Cashcow zu verschenken.

Der Deal mit Sprott und die ohnehin schon hohe Sprottbeteiligung sowie dessen hervorragende Kontakte können sich für uns alle eventuell als Megaglücksgriff erweisen.

Es wäre sicher einmal interessant, folgendes zu durchdenken:

Es wird ein Übernahmeangebot für 25 $ / share unterbreitet. Sprott lehnt dies als zu niedrig ab und weigert sich, seine Shares einzutauschen. Der gesamte BPM-Vorstand wird dies ebenfalls tun, viele Kleinanleger ggf. auch.

Wieviel % der ausstehenden Shares wären demzufolge noch am Markt?

Welche Möglichkeiten bestehen für Sprott, auch andere Großinvestoren davon zu überzeugen, das Angebot abzulehnen?

Wird sich dann eine Bieterschlacht entwickeln bzw. wird das Angebot nachgebessert ?

Fragen über Fragen! Vielleicht sollten wir uns mal mit diesem Szenario etwas näher beschäftigen und unsere Gedanken zusammentragen und nicht nur von EK, VK und momentan utopischen Zielursen philosophieren.

[Firsteven]

China Molybdenum IPO startet mit 61% Aufschlag
Newsticker aus den Emerging Markets übermittelt durch ad-hoc-news.de,
ein Nachrichtenportal der trading-house.net AG.
EMFIS.COM - RTE
Hongkong 26.04.07 (www.emfis.com)
Das Unternehmen China Molybdenum Co Ltd hat heute erfolgreich seinen Börsenstart in Hongkong vollzogen.
Das Unternehmen platzierte seine Shares zu einem Preis von 6,80 HKD. Diese waren im Vorfeld 398 - fach überzeichnet. Die Handelsaufnahme erfolgte mit einem Aufschlag von 60,9 Prozent auf 10,94 HKD. Das Hoch im Vormittagshandel lag bei 11,28 HKD und 547 Mio. gehandelter Shares bei einem Volumen von 5,84 Mrd. HKD.
Der Analyst Matthew Kwok von Tanrich Securities geht davon aus, dass sich der Kurs um die 11 HKD stabilisieren dürfte und die Aktie aussichtsreich ist, auch wenn zunächst mit Gewinnmitnahmen zu rechnen sei. Institutionelle Investoren konnten auf Grund der hohen Nachfrage nicht vollständig bedient werden.
Die Spezialmetallsorte unterliegt höchster Nachfrage, vor allem aus den Bereichen Konstruktion und Automobilproduktion, so Kwok.


China Moly IPO konnte $997m, eins schlagen von den größten auf HKEX

Eins des größten IPOs, das auf der Hong Kong Börse dieses Jahr vorweggenommen wird, ist China Moly der Henan Provinz, das anfängt, diesen Monat später zu handeln.
Autor: Dorothy Kosich
Bekanntgegeben: Dienstag, den 10. Apr. 2007

RENO, NANOVOLT -

China Molybdän, Operator von einer der größten reinen Molybdängruben in der Welt, konnte als das drittgrößte Hong Kong IPO auftauchen dieses Jahr.

Asien Reports finanzieren, die acht institutionelle Anleger des Grundsteins bereits festgelegt haben an, was ein Ausgangs-IPO von $977 Million sein konnte. Quellen veranschlagend, Asien finanzieren sagte, daß die acht Investoren $20 Million je kaufen und an einer 12 Monat Festlegung festgelegt haben.

Gefunden in der Provinz Henan zentralen Chinas, wird China Moly geglaubt, 498.000 Tonnen Molybdänreserven und 506.000 Tonnen Wolframreserven zu haben. Auf seiner Web site behauptet die Firma, mehr als 7 Million Tonnen von moly jährlich zu produzieren. Das der Firma Schmelz- und Wiederaufbereitungmolybdän auch.

Die Firma fing seine IPO Wanderausstellung in Singapur Montag an und wird Hong Kong am Dienstag besichtigen. Abschließende Preise für die Anteile werden am 19. April eingestellt, entsprechend täglichem Shanghai. Der Vorrat wird festgelegt, um das Handeln am 26. April in Hong Kong zu beginnen.

China Moly, das 22.7% seiner herausgegebenen Anteile verkauft, plant, die IPO Erträge zu verwenden, um gewinnenproduktion zu erweitern und die Verarbeitung Kapazität der Produkte weiter hinunter die Produktion Kette moly zu erhöhen.

Nicht identifizierte Forschung Reports zitierend, veranschlug FinanceAsia eine Quelle, die sagte, daß „diese Firma die notwendige Skala in seiner Molybdänproduktion hat und sie ist im rechten Platz mit Nachfrage in China in zunehmendem Maße schnell.“ Die Firma plant auch, aktiv zu sein, wenn sie andere Firmen, entsprechend den Reports erwirbt.

Molybdän wird hauptsächlich für das Verhärten des Stahls benutzt und zahlreichen Gebrauch im Aufbau, im Verschiffen, im Automobil, in der Verteidigung und in den Erdölindustrien hat. Rostfreier Stahl betrug 28% der weltweiten Molybdännachfrage 2005, gefolgt von den zahlreichen Spezialgebiet Stahlen. Katalytische Anwendungen enthielten 8% von der internationalen moly Nachfrage. China betrug 20% von Weltmoly Grube Produktion 2005. Der Verbrauch der Nation des Molybdäns verdoppelte zu um 18kt zwischen 2001 und 2005, entsprechend Roskill Informationsdiensten.


Hier mal die Öffnungszeiten der Hongkong Stock Exchange:

Öffnungszeiten der Börse: von 10 Uhr morgens bis 12.30
und von 14.30 bis 16.00.

Zeitverschiebung: 6h = aktuell 14.40 UHR

[Firsteven]

China Molybdenum's Shares Surge on Hong Kong Debut (Update2)

By Frank Longid and Xiaowei Li

April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of China Molybdenum Co., which raised HK$7.37 billion ($943 million) in a Hong Kong initial share sale this month, surged on their first trading day.

The stock jumped 60 percent to HK$10.88 at 3:14 p.m. local time, after soaring as much as 66 percent. The company sold 1.084 billion new shares at HK$6.80, it said yesterday. The offering was arranged by Morgan Stanley and UBS AG.

Investors are piling into Chinese share sales to tap annual economic growth of more than 10 percent. China Molybdenum plans to boost production of the metal, used to harden steel, as demand from makers of stainless steel pushes prices to records.

``Investors go for China Molybdenum because the industry is hot,'' said Heng Kun, an analyst at Anxin Securities Co. After the first-day surge the stock has risen to its so-called fair value, Heng added.

The stock in China's second-largest molybdenum maker is trading at 26 times earnings, compared with the Hong Kong-listed shares of Hunan Non-ferrous Metals Corp.'s, China's biggest zinc and tungsten producer, which traded today at 34 times earnings.

Molybdenum accounts for 1 percent of the volume of the raw materials used to make stainless steel, and 20 percent of the value because of its relatively high price. The price in China of molybdenum concentrate, a semi-processed form of the metal, has climbed 16 percent this year to $4,225 a ton, according to research company Metal Bulletin.

Export Quotas

China, home to the world's biggest molybdenum deposits, will soon issue licenses and impose quotas on exports of the commodity, Wu Wenjun, general manager of China Molybdenum said in March. The country imposed a 10 percent export tax on ferro- molybdenum from November 2006, after canceling an export tax rebate from January 2005. It also set thresholds for molybdenum plant expansions in January.

China, the world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 percent this year to 7.35 million metric tons, metals research firm Heinz H. Pariser said March 21. Global output is estimated at 31 million tons this year, up from 28 million tons last year, it said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Frank Longid in Hong Kong at flongid@... ; Xiaowei Li in Shanghai at Xli12@...

Last Updated: April 26, 2007 03:49 EDT

[Firsteven]

China won't slow base metals demand
By Tom Stundza
Purchasing
April 25, 2007














Strong first quarter growth of 11.1% in China has fueled speculation the government may impose measures to slow the economy. But, if that doesn't happen, the country's appetite for base metals consumption will remain strong, say analysts and traders who reckon that buyers across the globe will continue to face high prices and tight supplies.

China's urban fixed asset investment increased 25.3% in the first quarter but analysts suggest any macroeconomic tightening measures will be mild, at best. Raising interest rates or deposit rates too much would have the unintended effect of increasing the attractiveness of renminbi-assets, and draw more liquidity into China, according to a report on the NYMEX-Direct newsletter.

"It's not going to lead to a withdrawal of a lot of liquidity, there's too much hot money," says Beijing-based analyst Bonnie Liu at Macquarie Research. Liu doesn't expect a sharp increase in lending rates either, because this would reduce imports while failing to slow exports. "Because the trade surplus is an important source of foreign exchange reserves, China's liquidity problems would get worse."

China is the world's largest consumer of copper, aluminum and zinc, as well other metals. Macquarie Research is forecasting a growth of 10% in China's copper consumption in 2007, 30% in aluminum, 10% in zinc and 15% in lead, as fixed asset investment accelerates ahead of the 2008 Olympics.

Moreover, because the government usually adopts a gradual approach in any macroeconomic adjustments, consumption of base metals will continue to be driven more by price factors rather than government policies, says a commodity analyst at one of China's largest copper traders.


© 2007, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved

[miwi2]

In yahoo stand gestern
als 1 y Target: 19,89
heute steht drin:
11,19

Kann mir jemand sagen, on es da eine neue Analystenmeinung
gibt???

[Firsteven]

Es gibt keine neue Empfehlung. Kann nur ein Fehler auf Yahoo sein.


Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Nano Chemical Systems introduces biodegradable 2-cycle marine oil
Nano Chemical Systems Holdings Inc., announced today it has developed a "nano-enhanced", rapidely biodegradable 2-cycle oil for use on marine applications. The product will enter the multi-billion dollar performance chemical category under the name of 'NanoilMarine'. The biolubricant is the breakthrough step towards achieving the stringent goals set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in its 'Final Rule' [*.pdf] which regulates outboard motor and Personal Water Craft (PWC) emissions and calls for a 75% reduction in hydrocarbon emissions nationally by 2025.

Unlike today's fossil and synthetic oils, NanoilMarine is non-toxic and biodegradable. Nanochem will produce the lubricant by utilizing the same nano-technology patent applications and inventions that it utilizes in its Nanoil product, which directly address biofuel production for a nano-enhanced line of 'green' biolubricants (earlier post). The patented technology is based on nano-sized molybdenum metal ball bearings that are introduced into bio-based oils, giving them superior properties as lubricants.

Initial results indicate that NanoilMarine can perform as well as today's fossil and synthetic oils in marine applications. Further, the biolubricant can be made from a waste-product obtained from biodiesel production that is based on saturated plant oils (such as palm and coconut oil, whose fatty acids have a low number of double bonds, which is why they harden at high temperatures). Biodiesel made from such oil types involves physically removing a fraction (up to 15%) of the fuel, needed to lower its melting point. This reduces the overall energy balance of the fuel and negatively affects its economics. By utilizing this fraction as a feedstock for NanoilMarine, the biolubricant can play a crucial role in strengthening commercial viability of biodiesel production:
bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: plant oil :: biolubricant :: molybdenum :: nanotechnology :: bioeconomy ::

Nanoil 2-cycle marine oil is a critical introduction in reducing hydrocarbon emissions and alleviating concerns that outboard and Personal Water Craft emissions pose a substantive threat to water quality. Since this oil is mixed with gasoline, the potential exists for boating enthusiasts to accidentally spill this oil directly into the water supply, says Lou Petrucci, COO and VP Sales of Nanochem. With 100% biodegradable oil, accidental spillage will not have an environmental impact.

Nano Chemical Systems holds a portfolio of in-house nano-research, development and a manufacturing plant. Earlier, it introduced Nanoil, a bio-based lubricant with nano-sized molybdenum particles, which is made from the residues from palm oil based biodiesel production.



posted by Biopact team at 10:03 PM

[Firsteven]

PD/FCX....Molybdenum Sales Up....Production Down Message List

Reply | Forward Message #408 of 409 < Prev | Next >

Ryan's Notes Apr.26/07

PD's Moly sales rise in Q1

Phelps Dodge's moly output in the first quarter fell to 16.5-million lb compared to 17.2-million lb in the first quarter of 2006. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX), the new owner of PD, reported that production from the Henderson moly mine was unchanged from the year-ago quarter at 9.4- million lb, but byproduct output fell to 7.1-million lb from 7.8-million lb. PD's moly sales jumped to 18.6-million lb compared to 16.9-million lb in the first quarter last year and its average realized price was $23 per lb in the first quarter compared to $21.18. PD purchased 2.4-million lb of moly for sale in the first quarter, boosting its total sales to 21-million lb. In the first quarter of 2006, PD purchased 2.2-million lb of moly for sale. FCX said that it expects to produce 70-million lb of moly in 2007 compared to production of 68.8-million lb last year. About 60% of FCX's moly production is committed for sale on annual or quarterly contracts based on a price one month prior to sale, the company said. The feasibility study on reopening the Climax moly mine near Leadville, CO, will be completed in August. That mine could produce 20-million lb starting in 2009. FCX CEO Richard Adkerson commented that the company does not have to sell assets to bring down its debt, but he added that FCX would be looking at PD's moly business as well as other assets to determine if spinning off some businesses would be a good strategy.

[Firsteven]

*Note: This is EXACTLY what is coming down the road for MANY Jr Moly explorers flying high on mega hot air. Undervalued Development Stage Moly projects are what an investor should be looking at...KR

Around the Markets: Uranium Is Losing Its Luster


Gavin Evans: Bloomberg News
Published: April 26, 2007






WELLINGTON: Investors in uranium stocks, among the hottest industry groups in the world last year, are getting a reality check. The shares of 64 of 218 uranium companies have dropped in 2007, compared with 27 in all of 2006. In a sign that the uranium mania is cooling, investors are fleeing companies they perceive as having little prospect of producing the mineral any time soon, such as Fairstar Resources of Perth, Australia.
Companies in Canada, the world's biggest uranium producer, have led the drop. Golden Patriot and Commander Resources, both of Vancouver, have lost 66 percent and 46 percent, respectively. Fairstar has slumped 43 percent.

"There are lots of companies that are just not real," said Jean-Francois Tardif, who helps manage the equivalent of $3.9 billion at Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. While he refused to name any, he said they are companies that are years away from even confirming if projects are viable.

"Can we still make substantial returns from here by selectively picking real quality companies? We certainly think so."

Companies that are already mining uranium are holding up better in the stock market.

Paladin Resources, which in August started the world's first conventional uranium mine in a decade, is up 12 percent this year. Stock in the Perth-based company soared fivefold last year, the biggest gain in an index of global energy stocks. The average uranium stock tracked by Bloomberg more than doubled in the past 12 months, helped by a 1,000 percent surge since 2003 in the price of the mineral.
Sprott has about $400 million invested in uranium, and bought shares of the Sandton, South Africa-based UraMin in recent months. The company plans to start uranium production next year in Namibia.

The uranium rally has taken off as utilities are turning to nuclear energy at new plants to meet power demand, on concern that coal- and oil-fired plants are raising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, contributing to global warming. China and India are increasing their nuclear power capacity. Mergers and acquisitions in the mining industry also aided the rally.

Shares of the Perth-based Bannerman Resources have soared 1,643 percent in the past year, the top gain among the 218 uranium miners tracked using Bloomberg data. The Australian nickel and uranium miner is seeking the radioactive metal in Namibia. Cameco of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, the world's largest uranium producer, has gained 13 percent.

The "feeding frenzy" for exploration stocks may be cooling as investors grasp that determining whether sites have deposits worth mining is a long and costly process, the Sydney research firm Far East Capital said in a report last month.

"These stocks can just run up on the hype of their own share price momentum," Far East Capital's managing director, Warwick Grigor, said. "The punters are buying now and thinking later."

Fairstar holds licenses to explore in Western Australia, where mining of the substance used to make nuclear fuel is banned. Its early gains last year were ridiculous, Grigor said.

Even companies he considers "advanced" explorers are vulnerable. The Melbourne-based A-Cap Resources, looking for uranium in Botswana, has jumped 1,100 percent since its debut 11 months ago.

"They've had some good results, but they don't have any resources," said Grigor. "Sure, eventually it may well come up with something some time, but it has run up on hot air." Many companies will spend years confirming if projects are even viable.

The Perth-based Western Uranium sold shares in September to fund two years of exploration work on the Coppermine Bore project in Western Australia. The shares have dropped 41 percent this year. Golden Patriot is down 66 percent in the same period after raising exploration funds for its Lucky Boy prospect in Arizona.

"A switch away from overpriced grass-roots exploration toward companies with more fundamental merit" may have started, said Grigor, who still favors the mineral.

Some investors are looking past uranium. Otto Spork said he favors molybdenum, which is used to strengthen steel, after buying uranium producers last year for a strategic opportunities hedge fund.

"The uranium stocks have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves," said Spork, founder of Sextant Capital Management in Toronto. "Moly is kind of taking the lead at the moment, but uranium is still a close second."

[Firsteven]

Wo ist das Problem ?
Zugegeben, als wir heute Vormittag die 12,93 Euro erreicht hatten, hat mein Herz auch gejubelt, und mein Depot sah so richtig schön grün aus. Gerne hätte es in Kanada so weiter gehen können. 10% plus wäre richtig schön gewesen, oder wenigstens 7,5%. Dass die Perle das kann, hat sie uns je erst gestern bewiesen.
Dieser schöne Traum hat sich nicht erfüllt. Und nur hängen viele rum, als wären wir 10% ins Minus gerutscht. Die Stimmung ist irgendwie am Boden.

Warum eigentlich ???

Wir hatten gestern einen richtig guten Tag, wahrscheinlich im Hinblick auf den ersten Handelstag von China Molybdenum. Die Feier aus diesem Anlaß (7,5% Kurssteigung an einem einzigen Tag) wurde also eigentlich vorgezogen, gestern bereits zelebriert. Müssen wir dieses Fest 2 x feiern? Das kann doch keiner verlangen. Und dass die riesige Unterbewertung von Blue Pearl gegenüber China Molybdenum innerhalb von wenigen Tagen ausgeglichen wird, dass kann auch keiner ernsthaft erwarten. Dieser Prozess wird sicher viele Monate benötigen und uns noch viele Tage mit (kleinen) Kurssteigerungen bringen.

Jetzt sehen wir uns die Lage einmal realistisch an:
Nach einem Tag mit einem unerwartet kräftigen Anstieg hat der Markt mit kleineren Gewinnmitnahmen reagiert. Völlig normal. Der Schlußkurs heute liegt um 42 ct oder 2,30% unter dem Allzeithoch (auf Schlußkursbasis). Erfreulich ist, dass der Kursrückgang nicht zu einem großen Abverkauf ausgeartet ist. Die Mehrzahl der Anleger setzt nach wie vor Vertrauen in die Aktie.
Rohstoffwerte wurden heute allgemein nach unten gedrückt. Auf meiner Watchslist sind 40 von 42 Werten im roten Bereich, meist sehr viel deutlicher als Blue Pearl. In diesem Zusammenhang verliert der kleine Rücksetzer vollends seine Bedeutung.

Ist dieser kleine Kursrückgang ein Problem? Für mich jedenfalls nicht. Mein Depot ist immer noch wunderschön grün, der Aufwärtstrend ist intakt, intraday wurde der alte Widerstand bei 17,67 CAD, der nun zur Unterstützung wurde, noch einmal von oben getestet und hat gehalten.
Sowohl aufgrund der Fundamentaldaten als auch charttechnisch ist der Weg nach oben frei.

In den nächsten Tagen dürfte wohl noch die News kommen, dass die 36 Mio $ aus dem PP zur weiteren vorzeitigen Schuldentilgung verwendet wurden und der Schuldenstand nun auf etwa 284 Mio $ gesunken ist. Der Cashbestand auf dem Konto dürfte dabei noch einmal deutlich zugelegt haben und irgendwo zwischen 150 und 200 Mio $ liegen.
Am 10. Mai, also in 9-10 Börsentagen, sollen dann die Zahlen für das 1.Quartal veröffentlicht werden. Es ist zu erwarten, dass erstmals in der Geschichte des Unternehmens Gewinn ausgewiesen wird. Die Höhe dieses Gewinnes dürfte so manch einem Marktteilnehmer, der sich bisher nicht die Mühe machte, selbst zu rechnen, den Atem rauben und die Augen öffnen.

Noch ohne genauere Terminierung stehen an:
Ausweitung der Resourcen für die Thompson-Creek-Mine (und damit deutlich verlängerte Minenlebensdauer)
Ausweitung der Resourcen für die künftige Davidson-Mine
Feasibility-Studie für die künftige Davidson-Mine
möglicherweise Verkauf von 25% von Davidson an Sojitz (und damit weitere Schuldentilgung)
Studie über den Ausbau der Endako-Mine zu einem Super-Pit mit kräftiger Produktionssteigerung
sowie eine Vielzahl von kleineren News.

Betrachten wir uns den kanadischen Chart:
Wenn ein Kurs über alle bisherigen Hochstände gestiegen ist, dann gibt es aus charttechnischer Sicht keine Widerstände mehr, die man zur Beurteilung heranziehen könnte, wo der Kurs sich beim weiteren Steigen schwer tun könnte. In Form der Fibonacci-Extension steht dem Charttechniker dennoch ein Instrument zur Verfügung, um Widerstandszonen vorhersehen zu können.
Interessant ist, dass an jeder der Fibonacci-Extension-Zonen der Kurs der Blue-Pearl-Aktie tatsächlich gezögert hat. In meinem Posting vom 17.4. hatte ich auf diesen Sachverhalt bereits einmal hingewiesen.
Bei 9,50 CAD ging es 5 Tage seitwärts.
Bei 10,36 CAD zeigte ein Doji Unentschlossenheit (Kerze ohne Körper).
Bei 11,75 CAD ging es 7 Tage seitwärts.
Bei 14,00 CAD ging es 3 Tage seitwärts.
Bei 17,67 CAD ging es 7 Tage seitwärts.

Ein Widerstand, der nach oben durchbrochen wurde, wird anschliessend zur Unterstützung.
Nun ist es bei charttechnischer Betrachtung oftmals festzustellen, dass nach der Überwindung eines stärkeren Widerstandes (hier die 425%-Fibonacci-Extension-Linie bei 17,67 CAD) der Kurs noch einmal auf diese Unterstüzung zurückfällt, und diese von oben testet.
In fast mustergülitger Ausprägung finden wir in dieser Zone einige Regeln der Charttechnik bestätigt: Der Kurs testete 2 Mal die Widerstandslinie um beim 3. Mal den Durchbruch zu schaffen. Anschliesend wurde diese Linie noch einmal von oben getestet (und zwar so exakt, als hätte jemand ganz genau diesen CAD-Wert erreichen wollen - wahrscheinlich ist es aber doch Zufall gewesen). Aus der Sicht des Charttechnikers wäre damit nun der Weg frei für ein weiteres Steigen des Kurses. Lassen wir uns überraschen. Fundamental spricht jedenfalls alles dafür. Der Anstieg muss ja nicht gleich so rasant sein, dass die obere Begrenzung des Trendkanales überboten wird. So ein Tempo lässt sich nicht für länger durchhalten.

chartex

[Firsteven]

There is no link to this Apr/07 report from Orion Securities but they have classified the group listed into Producers, Development Stage and Exploration Stage... Development Stage is where one has far more security of investment. Explorers are for the most part alot of hype and unwarranted excitement....KR

Exhibit 1. Market Data for Selected Molybdenum Producers, Developers and Explorers:

Ticker Currency Shares O/S Shares O/S Closing Price Market Cap 52w High 52w Low

(Basic MM) (FD MM) ($) (FD $MM) ($) ($)

Producers

Blue Pearl Mining BLE-T CAD 108.0 140.3 $14.00 $1,964 $14.12 $1.70

Freeport/Phelps Dodge FCX-N USD 197.2 227.9 $69.85 $15,921 $72.20 $43.10

Rio Tinto RTP-ADR USD 251.4 251.4 $246.73 $62,028 $253.33 $176.09

Taseko Mines TKO-V CAD 128.5 159.7 $3.40 $543 $4.66 $2.10

Developers

Adanac Molybdenum AUA-V CAD 72.6 98.6 $2.38 $235 $2.80 $0.90

Mercator Minerals ML-T CAD 72.2 82.6 $4.70 $388 $5.10 $1.60

Northern Orion NNO-T CAD 154.0 221.2 $5.28 $1,168 $6.96 $3.85

Quadra Mining QUA-T CAD 38.1 45.1 $11.77 $531 $13.35 $6.93

Roca Mines ROK-V CAD 72.8 91.7 $2.90 $266 $3.18 $0.50

Explorers

Copper Fox Metals CUU-V CAD 64.2 76.8 $1.34 $103 $1.61 $0.36

Eagle Plains Resources EPL-V CAD 53.3 62.4 $0.92 $57 $1.95 $0.47

Galway Resources GWY-V CAD 31.3 44.5 $1.48 $66 $1.77 $0.35

Geodex Minerals GXM-V CAD 39.0 47.0 $0.92 $43 $1.03 $0.18

Georgia Ventures GVI-V CAD 39.3 43.8 $0.72 $32 $0.84 $0.14

Idaho General Mines GMO-AMEX USD 43.4 59.3 $6.05 $359 $6.79 $1.80

Inca Pacific Resources IPR-V CAD 36.4 40.0 $1.22 $49 $1.30 $0.63

Moly Mines MOL-T CAD 51.6 67.2 $4.31 $290 $4.80 $0.95

New Cantech Ventures NCV-V CAD 58.0 84.6 $1.11 $94 $1.23 $0.28

Sultan Minerals SUL-V CAD 72.1 99.0 $0.30 $30 $0.40 $0.13

Tenajon Resources TJS-V CAD 43.6 54.6 $0.73 $40 $0.96 $0.20

U.S. Energy Corp USEG-Q USD 20.1 25.8 $5.71 $147 $7.25 $3.30

Virgin Metals VGM-V CAD 58.3 74.4 $0.62 $46 $0.80 $0.25

[Firsteven]

Molybdenum Prices Edge Up

Ryan's Note's Apr. 27/06

Moly Edges Up
Moly prices continued to firm. European FeMo sales were done at $72 per kg and slightly higher. One trader said he had sold at $74. A US mill reportedly bought a truck of FeMo for immediate delivery at $34.50. Oxide prices are moving up, but the spread between oxide and FeMo still is unusually large. US oxide prices are higher than prices in Europe. A half-truck of drummed oxide was sold at just under $29 per lb and traders were quoting over $29 for truckoad quantities. In Europe, oxide prices narrowed to $28.50-28.75 per lb. A consumer who had bought at $28.25 last week was unable to repeat the purchase. Traders are paying just under $28.50 to secure material. Even though prices are moving up, there is not a frenzy of trading activity. This indicates that traders are not short nor are they anxious to take on positions.

[Firsteven]

China Molybdenum auch am zweiten Tag

27. April 2007 | 08:24 Uhr Kommentieren | Artikel drucken | Artikel versenden
China Molybdenum auch am zweiten Tag kräftiges Plus

Newsticker aus den Emerging Markets übermittelt durch ad-hoc-news.de, ein Nachrichtenportal der trading-house.net AG.
EMFIS.COM - RTE
Hongkong 27.04.07 (www.emfis.com)
Gestern hatte das Unternehmen China Molybdenum Co Ltd erfolgreich seinen Börsenstart in Hongkong vollzogen.
Das Unternehmen hatte seine Shares zu einem Preis von 6,80 HKD platziert. Diese waren im Vorfeld 398 - fach überzeichnet. Bereits mit Handelsaufnahme ging sie um über 60 Prozent nach oben und erreichte mit 11,28 HKD ihr Tageshoch.

Entgegen dem heutigen schwachen Markt, kann sich der Wert weiter nach oben schrauben. Im Augenblick beträgt das Plus 6,84 Prozent. Im Vormittagshandel erreichte sie mit 11,66 HKD ein neues Hoch. Das Handelsvolumen liegt bei kräftigen 1,77 Mrd. HKD.


Sie lesen Finanznachrichten und Wirtschaftsmeldungen auf ad-hoc-news.de, ein Presseportal der trading-house.net AG. Weitere Börsennachrichten finden Sie unter www.ad-hoc-news.de & http://www.trading-house.net.

Rainer Hahn ist Gründer und Geselleschafter vom www.emfis.com und Chefredakteur des ASIA und Südamerika EMFISIZER.

[Firsteven]

A bull in bear's clothing
What gives Eric Sprott the vision to see opportunity in every discouraging trend? (Hint: It's a product you, too, consume)
BOYD ERMAN
From Friday's Globe and Mail

April 27, 2007 at 6:08 AM EDT

Observe the crowd when Eric Sprott heads to the front of a room full of financial types and launches into his routine: Eyes roll, heads shake and hushed voices trade asides.

It's hardly the reception you'd expect for one of the most successful investors in the country. But it's not difficult to fathom why Sprott makes audiences uncomfortable. People whose livelihoods depend on the financial markets don't want to hear yet again that the world is running out of oil, that the price of gold is headed for the moon, that the world's currencies are doomed to devaluation and the global financial system is on the brink of collapse. And they especially don't want to hear it from someone who is right so often—a guy who called the end of the technology bubble and the plunge in the U.S. housing market well ahead of time.

In a world fuelled by optimism, Eric Sprott is a big downer—unless you're one of the investors who has enjoyed the stellar returns in the $4.8 billion worth of hedge and mutual funds he and his team run at Sprott Asset Management.

The firm's predictions, chronicled in a monthly newsletter that Sprott co-authors, conjure up a Mad Max future where people fight over the last drops of gasoline. "We're relying on the price of oil going up," he says. "We're relying on the price of gold going up, the meltdown of the financial system." Sprott is so consistently nervous about a stock-market free fall that for the past seven years he's been telling investors to stay away from his firm's equity mutual fund, because, unlike his hedge funds, it can't resort to short-selling to protect against a plunge.


Eric Sprott

Yet people who know Sprott attribute much of his success to—get this—his sunny outlook.

"He's an incredibly optimistic person," says Scott Lamacraft, who has known Sprott since he did a summer-student stint at Sprott Securities in 1993. "That's what differentiates the great people in business from the not so great. For Eric, the glass is half full. You can be bearish and optimistic at the same time. You can see opportunities where other people don't."

Sprott has been so good at finding those opportunities that his equity fund—the very one he cautions against buying—has averaged annual returns of about 35% since 2000, according to Globefund. Facts like this feed the legend: Sprott is a man who can make money in any market.

$ $ $

Sprott, a tall, broad-shouldered 62-year-old, has prospered on both sides of the securities business—brokerage and fund management. Raised in Ottawa, he graduated with a commerce degree from Carleton University in 1965 and headed straight into the investment world as an analyst at Merrill Lynch.

In 1981, he founded his own brokerage firm, Sprott Securities Inc., which he turned into one of the most successful boutique investment dealers in the country. It was known for its focus on research: Fascinated with finding small companies with big potential, Sprott spent long days getting to know businesses and pitching the resulting ideas to fund managers.

But as the end of his second decade at the head of a brokerage approached, Sprott grew frustrated with the routine of coming up with investment ideas for others. Already running the Sprott Canadian Equity Fund, he itched to spend all his time investing. He sold Sprott Securities to his employees and founded Sprott Asset Management Inc. He has no regrets—he's better off for the change, both intellectually and financially. Sprott's secret? He reads—voraciously. He rises every morning by 5 a.m. to plow through three newspapers—The Globe and Mail, National Post and The Wall Street Journal, before getting into all the research that accumulates on his desk each day. Other people may run their funds with computer modelling and game theory; Sprott attaches clippings to his missives for investors. "I'm always shocked that you can read things in the newspaper that prove to be incredibly valuable, that a lot of people miss," he says.

For much of the 1990s, Sprott was a bull, and he didn't shy away from technology investments. One of his top picks in 1998 was Teklogix International Inc., a maker of wireless gear. It soared more than 400% that year. But as the decade drew to a close, the dizzying heights of the stock market were starting to concern him. In the summer of 2000, he happened across a story in The Wall Street Journal that made him certain that the bubble had to pop.

The article described an analyst who was concerned that some upstart phone companies, known as competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs), wouldn't be able to pay the interest on their bonds. "I thought, 'My God, if she's worried about the bonds of the CLECs, what the hell does that say about Nortel, which sells to the CLECs?'" Sprott says. "How are they going to pay their invoices? That was way before Nortel peaked out. There it was in The Wall Street Journal. We took it as gospel and realized that Nortel was going to have a lot of difficulty."

At the time of that epiphany, Sprott was already touting investments in gold, metals and energy as a safe haven. He went a step further in the fall of 2000, launching his first hedge fund so he could sell stocks short to protect investors in a market meltdown. Since then, Sprott has generated a compound annual return of 30% in that first hedge fund, and gone on to start two more.

There's more to the reading than just logging the time, of course. Sprott has trained himself to seek viewpoints from the edge. The "recommended reading" list on Sprott Asset Management's website is full of apocalyptic titles such as Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression and The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies. "You learn to be at the extremes, because at the extremes is where something is going to happen," says Sprott. "If you read the mainstream, you're not going to learn anything."

His employees get the message. "The first thing Eric taught me is to challenge the consensus," says Lamacraft, who now runs Sprott Securities, recently renamed Cormark Securities Inc. "Don't just believe what you read on the surface, but get one level deeper and see what's really going on."

Reading the viewpoints emanating from Sprott Asset Management, one could easily imagine that the firm is located not on Bay Street but in an underground bunker staffed by equal complements of conspiracy theorists and survivalists. There are suggestions from time to time that central banks are manipulating the gold market to depress prices; Sprott himself is a believer in the peak-oil theory.

"The peak-oil thesis says that if we've hit the peak, then production goes down forever," Sprott says, his tone darkening. "That's a big statement if it's true. Forever. Oh my God, can you imagine a world where we're trying to survive 10 years from now on 60 million barrels, or 15 or 20 years from now on 60 million barrels? It would be such a fight over who is going to get the oil. Because we have to have it. So it could be quite wild."

Then he brightens, saying, "But maybe we'll find solutions." Indeed, Sprott has placed big bets on some of those potential solutions. His firm is one of the largest investors in uranium companies, and has also piled into coal producers. Ethanol he's not so sure about, given that it takes a lot of energy to produce. So far, uranium has paid off spectacularly; coal hasn't. Maybe coal will climb when the supply of oil gets really tight, Sprott figures. In the meantime, he's not about to buy more, citing one of his maxims: Don't push a loser.

$ $ $

For a wealthy man, Sprott has a regular-guy persona. He tends to order Coors Light even at Toronto's priciest boîtes, and on a casual Friday you'll find him in chinos and a Tommy Hilfiger shirt, rather than in the Italian threads that many of his counterparts in the industry sport.

His big indulgences are philanthropy and collecting art. In total, he has donated more than $20 million to his alma mater and an Ottawa hospital. Although he says he's not the least bit artistic and never dreamed of becoming a collector—he goes all aw-shucks when discussing art—Sprott's office looks more like the National Gallery than a fund firm.

His is one of the finest private collections of Canadian art: Inuit sculptures adorn the lobby, and the walls are hung with paintings by Emily Carr, the Group of Seven, Jean-Paul Riopelle and Norval Morrisseau. Lately, Sprott has been branching out into impressionists. A van Gogh, no less, hangs just inside the front door.

The strange thing is, this big-time collector is colour-blind. "It's not the colour that does it for me," he says. "It's probably the contrast in the colours."

Art, philanthropy—enough to keep a man satisfied, no? Sprott does periodically think about slowing down. "I've had a good run," he says. "I don't need to start something else." Then he laughs, realizing that he is starting something else—a company that will invest in molybdenum, an obscure metal used to toughen alloy steels. Investors, lured by Sprott's reputation, anted up $200 million for units in Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in April—twice as much as the firm expected.

"In one way, you wonder why you do it," Sprott says, turning reflective. "But we believe in it. I think it's going to be a good thing for people to invest in, so fine. Let's go do it."

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Note's Apr. 27/06

Moly Edges Up
Moly prices continued to firm. European FeMo sales were done at $72 per kg and slightly higher. One trader said he had sold at $74. A US mill reportedly bought a truck of FeMo for immediate delivery at $34.50. Oxide prices are moving up, but the spread between oxide and FeMo still is unusually large. US oxide prices are higher than prices in Europe. A half-truck of drummed oxide was sold at just under $29 per lb and traders were quoting over $29 for truckoad quantities. In Europe, oxide prices narrowed to $28.50-28.75 per lb. A consumer who had bought at $28.25 last week was unable to repeat the purchase. Traders are paying just under $28.50 to secure material. Even though prices are moving up, there is not a frenzy of trading activity. This indicates that traders are not short nor are they anxious to take on positions

[eric_4]

Hallo therefore,

mein letztes Posting wurde wie so oft, wieder einmal vom Papst gelöscht, so kenne ich ihn ja...

Er putzt wahrscheinlich gerade wieder einmal rote Schuhe, lach..

also stelle ich es noch einmal bei dir ein, dein Posting hinsichtlich der Panikmache war brilliant, ich betrachte es genauso....

Also noch einmal meine Sicht der Dinge:

Hallo liebe BPM – Investierten,

ich verfolge dieses Board seit August 2006 und bin seit der Bekanntgabe der Übernahme von Thompson Creek mit 90 % meines Kapitals eingestiegen, einfach weil das der genialste Deal war, den ich je sehen durfte. Man beachte lediglich das übernommene Anlagevermögen und die Ressourcen…

Der Hit schlechthin.., dazu Super-kompetente_User wie Chartex, Therefore, Schnucksche, der witzige Cuba, der fleissige First Steven und viele andere, ein besseres Forum habe ich noch nie gesehen….

Vielen Dank an alle Leistungsträger hier..(einige sogenannte heilige Figuren sind da mal ausgeklammert…( Nicht_Grüsse an Papst und Konsorten )

Ich schliesse mich der Bewertung der Leistungsträgern voll an und taxiere den fairen Wert von BPM auf 40 - 60 Euro nach meinem heutigen Informationsstand.

Wenn die Updates zu Thompson Creek und dem Davidson-Projekt kommen, muss neu gerechnet werden.

An dieser Stelle muss ich einmal auf Eric Sprott hinweisen, Uran vor drei Jahren,
Preissteigerung von Uran während der letzten 7 Jahre von Faktor 16…., lol, jetzt setzt Eric Sprott auf Molybdän…

Nimmt man nur 25 % dieser Performance zukünftig für Molybdän in die Rechnung auf, landen wir bei BPM in einer Range von 200-300 Euro pro Share…Eric is smart….

Ich rege zudem mal den Gedanken an, das BPM(Thompson Creek) für die meisten Fonds bisher unsichtbar ist. Weil, Explorer werden von denen nicht gescannt und nicht börsennotierte Privatunternehmen auch nicht, es würde keinen Sinn ergeben…

Dazu kommt die angekündigte Übernahme eines Kupfer_Molybdän-Produzenten,
wird das auch eine Privat-Mine sein? Mit ähnlichem Benefit????

Last not least befinden wir uns in einem Super-Rohstoff-Zyklus, dieses Glück geschieht einmal je Generation..

Fazit: Haltet eure Shares fest und ihr werdet höchstwahrscheinlich sehr vermögend werden….

Liebe Grüsse

Eric (ehemals profit) wenige werden es verstehen…

[Firsteven]

http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/orion/041707/frameset.p…

Orion Sec. Moly-Konferenz vom 17.04.2007

26 Min. erzählt Ian Mc Donald die Geschichte rund um Blue Pearl Mining!

[Firsteven]

http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/misc/videoplayer.htm

Blue Pearl Video von der Homepage vom 27.04.2007!

Großes Lob an die IR von Blue Pearl - hier wird echt etwas bewegt. Wayne ist ein absoluter Profi.

[Firsteven]

Earning and revenue 2007
Posted By: leefei88
Post Time: 4/28/2007 13:14

According to Yahoo/finance, BLE 1st quarter earning EST at US$0.31 per share and Revenue Est US$197.17Million, US$1.67 per Share and US$916.65Million revenue for 2007.


von STockhouse

[schnucksche]

What's hot in metal? Punters tip moly..
Mark Hawthorne
April 18, 2007

THOSE who missed the boat on the nickel and uranium booms have been
trying to identify the next hot commodity.

For months, hedge funds have been taking a bet on molybdenum stocks —
a metal that resists heat, cold and corrosion better than steel — and
it looks like they've hit pay dirt.

In Australian mining circles molybdenum is called "moly", and its
price has been soaring since January, due to export restrictions in
China.

China has the world's largest molybdenum reserves, but in 2005,
peasants in Hubei blamed molybdenum mines for poisoning the Chaoshui
river. Rioters destroyed an estimated 200 molybdenum mines, crippling
the world's supplies.

Ironically, environmental issues are the reason for moly's soaring
price — it is used by a range of power industries to remove sulphur
from emissions, and in oil, gas and water pipelines to prevent rust.

The global molybdenum producers — Phelps Dodge, Codelco and Rio
Tinto — increased output in 2005 after the China riots, but the price
of moly on the spot market rose from an average $US4.50 a pound (in
the 10 years to 2004) to a record $US40 in late 2005. The price slid
back last year, but has again been creeping up, to $US29 a pound.

The interest in the metal has been enough for the London Metals
Exchange to announce plans for a moly market, which will begin later
this year.

One player is Perth-based Moly Mines, which is listed on the
Australian Stock Exchange and in Toronto, where it raised $24 million
through a placement this month. The company is developing the
Spinifex Ridge molybdenum project.

Moly Mines, which once had Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest as its chairman,
has soared since January. It share price is up 400 per cent, from a
fraction over $1 a share to $4.99 yesterday. It was given a speeding
ticket from the ASX in February

Moly Mines chief executive Derek Fisher has just returned from an
investment roadshow in London, where his pitch was that the world's
energy pipelines are rotting and need replacing — with pipes made
frommolybdenum.



__._,_.___

[BonitaetF]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.051.172 von Firsteven am 28.04.07 21:51:25

Analyst Estimates Get Analyst Estimates for:




Earnings Est
-----------------Current Qtr--Next Qtr--Current Year--Next Year
------------------Mar-07-------Jun-07-----Dec-07-------Dec-08
Avg. Estimate-------0.31-------0.43--------1.67---------2.46
No. of Analysts------1----------1------------4-----------4

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BLE.TO

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ble.TO&m=c

[Firsteven]

von betzo

wg. der Orion Konferenz - Vortrag von Ian:



Danke Cuba nochmal für den Link! Es gibt nicht wirklich viel neues darin zu hören (ist ja auch schon zwölf Tage alt), aber das eine oder andere ist ganz interessant.

ThompsonCreek wird wohl ca 8-10 Jahre länger in Betrieb bleiben können als bisher gedacht (also nochmal ca 20 Jahre). Die genauen Zahlen kann/darf er aber natürlich nicht nennen. Aber das sagt ja auch schon etwas: "No question, this operation will continue for a long time!"

Davidson: Ian erwartet die Fertigstellung der feasibility study im Juni, eventuell auch schon im Mai. Das permitting wird 6-8 Monate dauern, ist in Teilen auch schon begonnen worden. Die erwarteten grades sind mit 0,33-0,36% Mo Weltklasse.

Den Kursanstieg der jüngsten Zeit (vor zwei Wochen) schreibt er größtenteils dem Börsengang von China Moly zu. "They´re doing a good job for all of us!" (mit der Promotion)


Ich wünsche euch allen eine schöne Woche, hoffentlich seid ihr am Wochenende auch alle so braun geworden wie ich!

[Firsteven]

http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=3993…

China Moly Kursabfrage mit Chart

[Firsteven]

So langsam schleicht sich unsere Aktie wieder an neue Höhen heran.

Wenn nur das leichte Unwohlsein bezüglich einer Übernahme nicht wäre.

Noch etwas über eine Woche bis zu den Quartalszahlen.
ich denke, wir sollten so langsam einmal anfangen und uns über den Umsatz und das Ergebnis des ersten Quartals Gedanken zu machen.

Da sonst keiner beginnt, fange ich mit dem Spiel einfach einmal an.

Mein Tip:
Umsatz:
Produziert und Verkauft = 5,5 Mio. IB
Aus Bestand verkauft = 1,0 Mio. IB
Eingekauft und Verkauft = 2,5 Mio. IB

9 Mio. IB zu 28,50 USD verkauft = 256,5 Mio. Umsatz
+ 2,5 Mio. Fremdröstungsgebühr = 259 Mio. USD Umsatz.

Gewinn:
5,5 Mio. IB zu 21 USD = 115,5 Mio. USD
1 Mio. IB zu 16 USD = 16 Mio. USD
2,5 Mio. aus Fremdröstung und Handel = 2,5 Mio.
Gesamt = 134 Mio. USD
Abzüglich 11 Mio. USD Zinsen
Abzüglich 20 Mio. Verlustvortrag
Abzüglich 35 Mio. Steuer
Bleibt = 68 Mio. USD Gewinn
68 Mio. USD * 1,11 = 75,48 Mio. CAD
75,48 Mio. CAD / 108.399.158 Aktien = 0,70 CAD Gewinn
Mit Optionen 75,48 / 140.300.629 = 0,54 CAD Gewinn

Eventuell werden aber 25 Mio. USD wegen der Januarzahlung 2008 zurückgestellt.

Dann würde sich das Ergebnis folgender Mssen ergeben:
134 Mio. USD
Abzüglich 11 Mio. USD Zinsen
Abzüglich 20 Mio. USD Verlustvortrag
Abzüglich 25 Mio. USD Rückstellung
Abzüglich 27 Mio. USD Steuer
Bleibt 51 Mio. USD Gewinn
51 MIO. * 1,11 = 56,61 Mio. CAD Gewinn
= 0,52 CAD Gewinn pro Aktie
= 0,40 CAD Gewinn pro Aktie verwässert

Mein Tip: Der Gewin pro Aktie wird zwischen 0,52 CAD und 0,70 CAD liegen.

Wer kann es besser?

therefore

[Firsteven]

Ich habe heute mal wieder mit Wayne gemailt und in diesem Zusammenhang einige Fragen zur FS und der Ressourcenschätzung, fehlenden Bohrergebnissen, dem Chinamoly-IPO sowie der chinesischen Ausfuhrsteuer auf Moly gestellt. Anbei die Antwort von Wayne zu Eurer Information:

Hi XXX,



The reserves estimates for Davidson are most likely to be issued with the feasibility study, since the reserves numbers depend on assumptions used in the feasibility study.



There are drill results for Davidson but they are incomplete. When they are complete, we will disclose them.



Regarding the China export tax, one was imposed at 10% last year. So far, despite rumours, there is no announcement of any increase. There also has not been any announcement of the companies that will be allowed to export moly, or if there will be export quotas.



As for your last question, I know that during the China Moly marketing program we had many calls from U.S. fund managers, so the process in advance of the IPO pricing and trading did create interest in Blue Pearl.



Best regards,

Wayne Cheveldayoff

[Firsteven]

A) Blue Pearl Mining (BLE on Toronto)
BMO analysts have begun their coverage with a $21.40 target
the market moved higher - when the target was highlighted in the Globe and Mail Report on Business.
The report highlights (as we did - before)- the income that will flow from expanded production from upward revisions of the moly reserves.
Other analysts will follow this line over the next several months.
The Company has moved to a "go to" moly mining stock for retail and institutional investors.
Small retail investors will be moving out - taking a short term gain - larger retail and new institutional investors will acquire more shares - for larger profits over the balance of this year and next several years see our review in the archived pages on April 4/11/12.

Diversity vs Potential
The stock remains a good value in the short and long term - where would you find the same potential if you sold? That question has kept me in the stock. I may have to sell a portion of my position at $20 - because the stock would then represent too large a percentage of the AMP Portfolio. However, as much as I believe in some diversity - I am always conscious of Warren Buffets advice that "Diversity is for investors who don't know what they are doing."

[eric_4]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Cuba_Libre]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Firsteven]

http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.2…

Ab 5 Min. u. 30 Sec.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007 12:30 PM ET
Market Call
Canadian and Global Equities
Michael Smedley, chief portfolio manager, Morgan Meighen & Assoc

Recommendation: BUY - Blue Pearl is the King on Moly Companies!

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.086.415 von Firsteven am 01.05.07 20:26:10

Nachtrag zur Empfehlung von Smedley:


Recommendation: B U Y

Blue Pearl Mining 17.510 Michael Smedley

This is the king of independent companies for molybdenum. He is still currently buying.

2007-05-01



Smedley kauft immer noch derzeit Blue Pearl ein - und das bei diesen erhöhten Kursen. Sehr positiv.

[Firsteven]

Der Grund des heutigen Anstiegs: Blue Pearl ist die Nr. 1 von YIN LUO

Quelle: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070502.RN…



Looking for the best in the hot mining sector
SCOTT ADAMS

GICS Latest Market Cap Avg Recent Price-to Price QED

Sym Stock Sub-Industry Price ($Mlns) Daily Vol Earnings Momentum{+1} Ranking

BLE Blue Pearl Min. Ltd.* Divers. Met & Min
17.51 1,808.6 2,008,300 58.1x 634.7 10

NCX NOVA Chem. Corp. * Commodity Chem
37.00 3,055.5 391,000 19.4x 9.9 10
TRE Sino-Forest Corp.* Forest Products
13.55 1,869.9 843,100 15.2x 140.6 10
AVM Anvil Mining Ltd.* Divers. Met & Min
16.04 909.8 202,000 8.8x 105.4 10
S Sherritt Int'l. Inc. Divers. Met & Min
14.66 2,521.7 1,128,700 10.9x 33.3 9
MX Methanex Corp. * Commodity Chem
26.79 2,795.3 535,200 4.8x 22.2 9
FRG Fronteer Devel. Divers. Met & Min
14.17 950.4 482,400 0.0x 196.1 9
AL Alcan Inc. * Aluminum
64.30 23,625.7 1,286,200 10.4x 26.6 9
AUR Aur Resources Inc.* Divers. Met & Min
24.57 2,418.4 978,900 7.1x 24.1 9
HBM HudBay Minerals Inc. Divers. Met & Min
21.55 2,719.0 1,768,700 5.2x 33.1 9

* Reporting in USD {+1}{+.} Price momentum is calculated as nine-month price return (%).

SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, COMPUSTAT, CPMS, IBES, CIBC WORLD MARKETS QUANTITATIVE STRATEGY


WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR?

Resources stocks have been all the rage, but which ones can keep running? We'll turn to CIBC for today's screen across the materials sector.

WHO IS YIN LUO?

Yin Luo, the quantitative strategist at CIBC World Markets, has created a stock ranking system he calls the QED model, which stands for Quantitative Equity Dynamic.

It ranks more than 500 Canadian stocks and income trusts using six factors: valuation, growth, momentum, analyst revision, quality, and market-related.

For example, price-to-earnings and price-to-cash flows are typical "valuation" factors that he considers, while return on equity and dividend payout ratio are good "quality" measures.

The extra juice in the QED model is the dynamic part. Not all investment strategies work equally well in all market and economic environments. For example, valuation factors are more useful in bear markets, while momentum factors are powerful in a rising market. Mr. Luo adjusts the weight assigned to each factor in the QED model based on his macroeconomic model.

WHAT DID HE TURN UP?

The ship hasn't sailed on the Pearl. You might be scared to still invest in Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. given that it is already up more than 600 per cent in the past nine months. But Mr. Luo's QED model still ranks the molybdenum play at the top of his list. He finds that those stocks that rise the most in 9 months, often continue their winning ways.

DON'T STOP THERE

A wise investor will stay diversified and do more research. Go to http://www.ReportonBusiness.com

"We think the materials sector is likely to face some challenges. However, given the large size and number of stocks in the sector, we still see attractive opportunities." Yin [e-mail]

[Firsteven]

Globe says it's worth stringing along with Blue Pearl


2007-05-02 08:16 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, May 2, edition that while resource stocks have been hot, not all will have legs. The Globe's Scott Adams in the Number Cruncher column asks CIBC World Markets analyst Yin Luo which stock he believes will keep on running. Mr. Luo recommends Blue Pearl Mining. Mr. Luo says the ship has not sailed on Blue Pearl Mining, despite its dramatic rise. Mr. Scott writes that investors might be wary investing in Blue Pearl Mining because it has climbed about $14 from last August when it was trading in the $3 range. The stock closed Tuesday at $17.65. Mr. Luo's Qualitative Equity Dynamic model continues to give a high ranking on the molybdenum play. Mr. Luo says stocks that climb the most in nine months, often continue their winning ways. Blue Pearl Mining stock has a one-year high-low trading range of $19.09 to $1.70. UBS Securities Canada gave Blue Pearl Mining a buy rating in The Globe on Jan. 2 when it was trading at $9.87. UBS targeted the stock at $11 within a year.

[eifelcash]

Guckst du, Gruß, eifelcash

SUBJECT: RE: 1st Quarter Numbers? Posted By: Garfield1
Post Time: 5/2/2007 17:08
« Previous Message Next Message »

Here is the answer
Hi XXX,

For the shareholder meeting, we are planning a live webcast at 4 pm Eastern on May 10.


As for the Q1 results, we have tentatively scheduled (I say tentative because last-minute accounting issues may delay us) release for late afternoon, early evening of May 10. Assuming the results are published in time, we will have a conference call for investors and analysts at 10 am Eastern on May 11. Please note that these times may change if there is a delay with the accounting.


Regards,

Wayne Cheveldayoff

[eifelcash]

SUBJECT: RE: 1st Quarter Numbers? Posted By: Garfield1
Post Time: 5/2/2007 17:08
« Previous Message Next Message »

Here is the answer
Hi XXX,

For the shareholder meeting, we are planning a live webcast at 4 pm Eastern on May 10.


As for the Q1 results, we have tentatively scheduled (I say tentative because last-minute accounting issues may delay us) release for late afternoon, early evening of May 10. Assuming the results are published in time, we will have a conference call for investors and analysts at 10 am Eastern on May 11. Please note that these times may change if there is a delay with the accounting.


Regards,

Wayne Cheveldayoff

Gruß, eifelcash

[schnucksche]

Molybdenum Supply is Expected To Get Tighter:
By Staff
Purchasing
May 3, 2007

An already tight molybdenum supply situation has gotten much worse recently, sending spot molybdenum prices above $30/lb in mid-April because of threats of export controls by China and the launch of new exchange traded fund (ETF) in Canada.

Beyond being used to strengthen steel used by the construction industry, molybdenum also is critically important to the energy drilling complex. According to Sprott Asset Management, a 5,000-foot oil well requires 50 tons of molybdenum-hardened steel to drill; a 15,000-foot well requires a whopping 1,100 tons.

Resource Investor.com suggests that one of the biggest reasons moving the molybdenum price is the launch of the Sprott Moly Fund in Canada run by Sprott Asset Management. The ETF is expected to invest up to $100 million in moly-related equities and physical metal.

Meanwhile, China, which supplies 20% of the world's molybdenum, wants to retain more of its metal production for domestic use—and plans to introduce a quota system for molybdenum exports. The quota system will only grant export permission to those firms with export volumes of over 3,000 metric tons and with registered capital of at least $13 million.


© 2007, Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All Rights Reserved.


__._,_.___

[Firsteven]

Wooooowwwwwww



Short History

Symbol Report Date Volume Change

BLE - T 2007-04-30 4,498,103 (Bestand) 1,136,547 (neu)


In den letzten 15 Tagen (15.-30.04.2007) kamen über 1,1 Mio. short Aktien dazu!

4,5 Mio. Aktien short hatten wir bisher noch nie!!!

Bei sehr guten Quartalszahlen und eventl. Bohrergebnissen von Davidson sollte der Kurs dann die 20 CAD endgültig im Mai meistern.

[schnucksche]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.124.869 von Firsteven am 04.05.07 06:29:07

Guten Morgen,

honeymoon hat ja dankenswerterweise heute N8 um 3 (!! ) schon die aktuellen Shortzahlen eingestellt.

Ich möchte aber noch einen Hinweis dazu geben. Die Höhe der Shortzahlen ist für mich mehr als erschreckend. Ich hätte persönlich nicht mit einem solchen dramatischen (Zunahme um knapp 33 %)gerechnet.

Es mag hier vielerlei Gründe geben, diese wurden ja heute und auch bei den letzten Zahlen mehrfach ausdiskutiert, sodass es hier unnötige Wiederholungen wären.

Es ist jedoch eines aus meiner Sicht ganz wesentlich, was in diesem Zusammenhang gesehen werden muß.

Mit den Shorts vom 30.04.2007 hat Blue sozusagen ein Short-ATH erreicht

Ich habe euch die Shortzahlen der letzten Monate nochmals beigefügt.


BLE - T 2007-04-30 4,498,103 1,136,547

BLE - T 2007-04-15 3,361,556 335,509

BLE - T 2007-03-31 3,026,047 -1,080,677

BLE - T 2007-03-15 4,106,724 555,667

BLE - T 2007-02-28 3,551,057 568,667

BLE - T 2007-02-15 2,982,390 153,905

BLE - T 2007-01-31 2,828,485 44,543

BLE - T 2007-01-15 2,783,942 336,241

BLE - T 2006-12-31 2,447,701 87,988

Aus meiner Sicht ist festzuhalten, dass es absolut für BPM spricht, dass in Anbetracht explodierender Shortzahlen nach wie vor fast auf ATH gehandelt wird.

Ich denke, jeder weiß, was dies bedeutet. Beginnt die Eindeckeung der Shorties (hatten wir ja schon einmal), wird dies wieder extreme Auswirkungen auf den Kurs haben. Und auf die sollte sich jeder Investierte schon heute freuen

[schnucksche]

'Super-Cycles' for Commodities Coming to Fruition
By Todd Flagg
03 May 2007 at 01:14 PM

Following the theories of late Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev, investors are beginning to fall into line that the commodity market moves in 50 to 60 year cycles.

"The norm in financial markets is to look at very short-term cycles," said Shane Oliver at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "I think that's wrong. Kondratiev allows you to view these things in a broader context." BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group, the third largest, are among AMP's top 10 holdings.


--
Shares of companies that produce raw materials have leaped 173% and energy stocks have jumped 118% since October 2001, when commodity prices began rising. The two groups have had the biggest gains in Morgan Stanley Capital International's World index since then. Shares of BHP, based in Melbourne, have almost quadrupled, while those of Rio Tinto, of London, have almost tripled.

The booming commodity market has sparked a new generation of "super cycle" proponents that also includes strategists at Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs. They say that supply shortages and growing economies in China and India will send prices higher for years to come.



__._,_.___

[132427]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.126.914 von schnucksche am 04.05.07 09:36:02

Mit der Namensänderung von Blue Pearl
eine andere WKN einzuführen wäre jetzt
das richtige Mittel gegen diese Short-Attacke

Ich hoffe sehr es geht positiv für die Anleger aus,
Die short Aktien mit 4,5 Mio.sind stark gestiegen
so einfach werden die sich nicht geschlagen geben.

Das Management könnte mal etwas gegensteuern,
ich freue mich schon auf den nächsten Donnerstag

[Firsteven]

Moly Oxide US$29.125

US FeMo $33.75

Stand: 05.05.2007


Quelle: http://www.stockinterview.com/moly-index.html

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Notes: May 3/07

FERROALLOY Nottess

Moly prices firmed last week as a few consumers entered

the market. European inquiries for early this week are

expected to push prices up further. Material is tight,

and the large gap between oxide and FeMo prices has

increased the interest in purchasing oxide for conversion.

Truckload sales of oxide were booked at $29 per

lb in the US early last week. By the end of the week,

European consumers said they were being quoted

$30.25 for oxide and were hoping to conclude business

at $30. Briquettes sales were reported at $30. European

FeMo prices started the week at $71-72 per kg and then

firmed toward $75, as inter-merchant business was

done at $73.50 and less than truckload sales were

booked at $75-76. In the US, small sales were reported

at $35-36 per lb. The start of May did not bring with it

higher taxes on Chinese moly exports, and now

sources speculate that the higher taxes will not be

implemented this month. There were few offers from

China last week because most suppliers had taken the

week off for the May 1 holiday.

Southern Copper's moly production in the first quarter

rose 6.1% to 3,679 mt from 3,469 mt in the same quarter

of 2006. Grupo Mexico, owner of Southern Copper

stated, that production at the La Caridad mine in

Mexico rose 832 mt because of a higher recovery rate.

The increase was partially offset by a reduction in

grade and recovery at the Toquepala mine in Peru,

which produced 622 mt less than in the first quarter of

2006. Atechnical and economic study of expanding the

concentrator plant at the Cananea copper/moly mine in

Mexico is underway. The expansion will add 35,000

mtpy of milling capacity that will start up in 2009.

Because the ore processed will have a higher grade of

moly, a plant will be built to process 4,000 mtpy of

moly concentrate, Grupo Mexico said. A pre-feasibility

study for the copper/moly project at Los Chancas in

southern Peru is near completion.

BHP Billiton will produce moly when it restarts its Pinto

Valley, AZ, copper mine at the end of this year, but the

moly production volumes will be "very minor,"

according to a BHP spokesperson. Before it shut in

1998, the mine was producing below 500 mtpy of Mo,

although in 1992 it produced 650 mt. The Pinto Valley

ore also contains rhenium.

Chinese FeMo exports slipped 5% in the first quarter to

4,555 mt from 4,787 mt in the same quarter last year.

Exports were: 1,289 mt (1,018 mt in the first quarter of

2006) to Rotterdam; 1,408 mt (565 mt) to Taiwan; 542

mt (837 mt) to the US and 426 mt (811 mt) to Japan. In

March, China exported 1,699 mt compared to 1,337 mt

in March 2006. China's imports of moly concentrates

fell 36% in the first quarter to 3,492 mt, possibly

because more Chinese moly mines resumed production

and regulations concerning tolling were tightened

[Firsteven]

Ryan's Notes: May 3/07

FERROALLOY Nottess

Moly prices firmed last week as a few consumers entered

the market. European inquiries for early this week are

expected to push prices up further. Material is tight,

and the large gap between oxide and FeMo prices has

increased the interest in purchasing oxide for conversion.

Truckload sales of oxide were booked at $29 per

lb in the US early last week. By the end of the week,

European consumers said they were being quoted

$30.25 for oxide and were hoping to conclude business

at $30. Briquettes sales were reported at $30. European

FeMo prices started the week at $71-72 per kg and then

firmed toward $75, as inter-merchant business was

done at $73.50 and less than truckload sales were

booked at $75-76. In the US, small sales were reported

at $35-36 per lb. The start of May did not bring with it

higher taxes on Chinese moly exports, and now

sources speculate that the higher taxes will not be

implemented this month. There were few offers from

China last week because most suppliers had taken the

week off for the May 1 holiday.

Southern Copper's moly production in the first quarter

rose 6.1% to 3,679 mt from 3,469 mt in the same quarter

of 2006. Grupo Mexico, owner of Southern Copper

stated, that production at the La Caridad mine in

Mexico rose 832 mt because of a higher recovery rate.

The increase was partially offset by a reduction in

grade and recovery at the Toquepala mine in Peru,

which produced 622 mt less than in the first quarter of

2006. Atechnical and economic study of expanding the

concentrator plant at the Cananea copper/moly mine in

Mexico is underway. The expansion will add 35,000

mtpy of milling capacity that will start up in 2009.

Because the ore processed will have a higher grade of

moly, a plant will be built to process 4,000 mtpy of

moly concentrate, Grupo Mexico said. A pre-feasibility

study for the copper/moly project at Los Chancas in

southern Peru is near completion.

BHP Billiton will produce moly when it restarts its Pinto

Valley, AZ, copper mine at the end of this year, but the

moly production volumes will be "very minor,"

according to a BHP spokesperson. Before it shut in

1998, the mine was producing below 500 mtpy of Mo,

although in 1992 it produced 650 mt. The Pinto Valley

ore also contains rhenium.

Chinese FeMo exports slipped 5% in the first quarter to

4,555 mt from 4,787 mt in the same quarter last year.

Exports were: 1,289 mt (1,018 mt in the first quarter of

2006) to Rotterdam; 1,408 mt (565 mt) to Taiwan; 542

mt (837 mt) to the US and 426 mt (811 mt) to Japan. In

March, China exported 1,699 mt compared to 1,337 mt

in March 2006. China's imports of moly concentrates

fell 36% in the first quarter to 3,492 mt, possibly

because more Chinese moly mines resumed production

and regulations concerning tolling were tightened.

[Firsteven]

@therefore: da bin ich ganz deiner Meinung. Ich hatte ja vor 4-6 Wochen schonmal geschrieben, dass ich fest davon überzeugt bin, dass dieses Jahr auf jeden Fall noch eine Übernahme kommt. Vielleicht in der Dimension und dem Knalleffekt wie bei Thompson Creek? Zutrauen würde ich das Ian, dass er gerade an einem riesen Ding arbeitet. Das würde auch erklären, warum die FS von Davidson immer noch nicht fertig ist. Vielleicht läuft da auch was mit Sojitz zusammen?

Stellt euch mal vor Blue Pearl und Sojitz Moly (ist eine Tochter von Sojitz) tun sich irgendwie zusammen und übernehmen einen Moly-RIESEN?! Geld genug hätten die Japaner. Und mit Ian Mc Donald haben die Japaner eine Top Mann an Board der das Geschäft kennt. Das wissen die auch - daher haben die ja auch damals auf Steve Mooney entsprechend eingewirkt TC an Blue Pearl zu verkaufen.
UBS weiß inzwischen auch was Mc Donald für einer ist. Und Sprott würde auch noch weiteres Geld zur Verfügung stellen. Alleine schon deswegen, um zu verhindern, dass Blue Pearl (ihre Topposition im Sprott Moly Funds) übernommen wird. Sprott weiß ganz genau, dass der Sprott Moly Funds nur ein richtiger Erfolg wird, wenn Blue Pearl auch nach oben knallt und nicht von Rio Tinto o.a. aufgekauft wird.

Jetzt gilt es sich im Markt zu positionieren - für einigermaßen günstiges Geld. Wenn der Moly Preis erst bei 50 USD steht, dass wird es richtig teuer. Das ist wie im Uran Bereich. Vor 6 Monaten hätte man Forsys noch für unter 100 Mio. CAD (oder so) bekommen. Heute muß man schon ein vielfaches auf den Tisch legen.

Komisch ist auch, dass nach wie vor noch kein Vollzug oder noch keine Meldung zu dem Sprott IPO vermeldet wurde. Das sind immerhin 36 Mio. CAD!

Ian hatte angedeutet das er 2006 noch toppen wird bzw. keinen Gang zurück schalten wird. Wer Mc Donald und seine agressive Wachstumspolitik der letzten Jahre verfolgt hat, weiß, dass er nicht nach solch einem Deal wie mit TC Gott einen guten Mann sein läßt.

Der verschachtelte Satz von RSR ist halt auch komisch. Das war im Aug/Sep. 2006 genauso. 6 Tage vor der TC Übernahme hat RSR das Musterdepot mit Blue Pearl Aktien aufgestockt. Und am 01.09. wußte RSR auch schon einiges zu der geplanten Übernahme. RSR ist also suuuuuper im Bezug auf Blue Pearl informiert.
Vielleicht weiß RSR auch schon in etwa wie die Zahlen ausgefallen sind.

Alles Spekulationen und Gedanken rund um unsere Perle. Aber ich bin mir sicher, dass dieses Jahr noch mit einigen Überraschungen zu rechnen ist.
Diese Tatik von wegen "wir müssen erst einmal die Schulden tilgen" - das kann alles nur Masche sein und die Konkurrenz in Sicherheit zu wiegen und einen weiteren Deal in Ruhe vorzubereiten. Warten wir es ab - vielleicht sind wir nächste Woche Donnerstag/Freitag schon schlauer was sie vor haben.


Beitrag Therefore:

GMP hat demzufolge im letzten Monat knapp 4,2 Millionen Aktien per Saldo verkauft. Ist schon eine ganze Menge in meinen Augen.

Man kann nun in verschiedenen Richtungen denken. Eine ähnliche Situation hatten wir bereits Anfang des Jahres diskutiert, als Gerüchte über eine KE die Runde machten.

Hallo Schnucksche,

da ich anhand des Verhaltens des Managements in nächster Zeit mit der Bekanntgabe einer Übernahme rechne, ist deine Beobachtung noch ein zusätzlicher Mosaikstein für das Gesamtbild.

Folgende Punkte veranlassen mich zu meiner These:
1. Der hohe Cashbestand, der nur zu einem Teil zur Schuldenreduzierung eingesetzt wird. Bei den hohen und steigenden Molypreisen und den bestehenden Kundenverträgen könnte man ohne Probleme wesentlich höhere Beträge abbezahlen. Kaufmännisch macht das Verhalten wenig Sinn.
2. Das Privat Placement mit Sprott wurde bisher noch nicht für eine Sondertilgung eingesetzt. Dies verwundert mich und die bekanntgabe eine Zweckänderung würde mich nicht mehr überraschen.
3. Die Verkäufe bei GMP
Nach dem nicht eingelösten Januarversprechen müssen die damals fehlinformierten Investoren jetzt aber mit einer tatsächlichen Kapitalerhöhung beglückt werden. Das Vertrauen in die Bank könnte sonst einen nicht mehr zu behebenden Schaden nehmen.
4. Die Informationen durch Ian und von Wayne zwingem einem gerade zu der Vermutung. Das Datum 2008 als Zieltermin ist in meinen Augen nur ein Ablenkungsmanöver.

Würden unsere Vermutungen zutreffen, dann stände aber eine Übernahme direkt bevor und wir würden am Donnerstag dazu nähere Informationen erhalten müssen. Zumindest, wenn das PP anderweitig eingesetzt wird.

Gibt es aber eine Übernahme, dann wird es am Donnerstag eventuell den Namen des Kandidaten, aber mit Sicherheit die Ankündigung des Deals und die Ankündigung einer Kapitalerhöhung oder eines PP für den Deal geben müssen. Nach dem Verahlten von GMP gehe ich von einem oder mehreren PP aus. GMP, Eric Sprott, Sprott Assett Management, UBS) werden hier die Investoren sein.

Damit sollte dann die Seitwärtsbewegung ein jähes Ende nehmen und auch die Übernahme von BluePearl wieder etwas schwere werden, wenn nicht ganz unmöglich werden.

Ich erinnere mich noch an die Worte von RSR kurz vor der Übernahme von TC. Sinngemäss die gleichen Worte tauchten in der gestrigen Information auf.

Da Ian ein gradliniger Mensch ist und auch Dankbarkeit kennt, gehe ich davon aus, das RSR als ein Hauptförderer von BluePearl hier zwischen den Zeilen Andeutungen erhält, die wir so niemals bekommen werden. Letztendlich hat Ian mit seiner Mannschaft auch durch die Hilfe der Börsenbriefe die Vorraussetzungen erhalten, TC überhaupt übernehmen zu können.

Ich persönlich finde das Gut und ich kann auch in der Zwischenzeit bei RSR die Gerüchtestreuung für das Abzocken der Lemminge und die fundierten Ankündigungen von guten Nachrichten anhand der Wortwahl recht gut unterscheiden.

Also gehe ich davon aus, dass es am Donnerstag noch etwas mehr als nur die guten Zahlen geben wird.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Hallo RudiXXX,

es geht in meinen Augen nicht um Endako, sondern um Davidson.

Bei meiner Nachfrage bei BluePearl geht man von einer Erlaubnis für den Abbau frühestens Anfang 2008 aus.

Sollte es hier wieder Erwarten keine Erlaubnis vom Staat geben, dann hat man schon eine Alternative und niemand wird sich über das Problem bei Davidson aufregen.

Nach meiner Meinung sind Übernahmen in dem momentanen Umfeld sehr logisch.

Die Weltwirtschaft wird noch ein paar Jahre mit dem heutigen Tempo wachsen. Heißt: Es werden jedes Jahr zusätzliche Rohstoffe benötigt, wobei niemand weiss, wo die alle überhaupt herkommen sollen. Dies führt zu dem angekündigten Bullenmarkt.

Heißt: Übernahmen werden von Jahr zu Jahr teurer. Und zwar reichlich teurer.

Eine einfache Rechnung: Zahle ich in diesem Jahr für eine Übernahme bei einem Molypreis von 30 USD 1 Milliarde, dann zahle ich im nächsten Jahr bei einem Preis von 50 USD mindestens 2 Milliarden, wahrscheinlich aber 2,5 bis 3 Milliarden USD.

Diese Gedanken macht sich nicht nur therefore in Deutschland, diese Rechnung macht mit Sicherheit auch Sprott und Ian McDonald in Kanada auf.

Dabei spielen dann auch die Finanzierungskosten keine Rolle mehr.

Daher erwarte ich demnächst mindestens die Übernahme eines Produzenten und/oder eines in Produktion gehenden Unternehmens. Unabhängig davon, ob börsennotiert oder nicht.

Bei der Übernahme eines börsennotierten Unternehmens ist auch ein Aktientausch denkbar. Bei einem nicht börsennotierten Unternehmen wird es zwangsweise eine Kapitalerhöhung geben.

therefore

[Firsteven]

04.05.2007 "China ist auf dem Weg zur Supermacht des 21. Jahrhundert und wird die gleiche Rolle spielen wie England im 19. und die USA im 20. Jahrhundert", ist Börsenguru Jim Rogers überzeugt. Um vom Aufstieg Chinas zu profitieren, sollten Anleger in Rohstoffe investieren, so Rogers. Von chinesischen Aktien rät er jedoch eher ab.

Jim Rogers gilt als einer der profiliertesten Marktbeobachter der Gegenwart. Einen Grossteil seiner Glaubwürdigkeit hat sich der Amerikaner mit seinem eigenen Werdegang erworben. Bereits mit 37 Jahren hatte er sich seinen Kindheitstraum verwirklicht, nämlich spätestens mit 40 genügend Vermögen auf der Seite zu haben, um in Frührente zu gehen. Möglich wurde dies dank dem Quantum Hedge Fund, den er zusammen mit George Soros ins Leben gerufen hatte und der innerhalb eines Jahrzehnts um über 4000 Prozent zulegte. Fortan betätigte sich Rogers als Bestsellerautor, als Gastprofessor an der Columbia University und als Globetrotter, indem er zweimal rund um die Welt reiste, einmal per Motorrad, einmal per Auto. Der breiten Anlegerschaft ist Rogers vor allem bekannt als Rohstoff-Guru. Sein Credo lautet, dass sich die Rohstoffe einem langfristigen Bullenmarkt befinden, der noch gut und gerne zehn oder mehr Jahre anhalten werde. Mit seiner Aussage, die wie so oft im Widerspruch zur Mehrheit der Analysten steht, hat er bisher ebenfalls reichlich Geld verdient. So ist der von ihm geschaffene "Jim Rogers International Commodity Index“ seit 1998 um 250 Prozent gestiegen.

Ähnlich dezidiert ist seine Meinung zum Potenzial Chinas, das gemäss Rogers dabei sei, zur Supermacht des 21. Jahrhunderts aufzusteigen. Rogers Glaube an den Aufstieg Chinas ist so gross, dass er bei der Geburt seiner Tochter eine chinesische Nanny eingestellt hat, damit sein Nachwuchs gleich von der Wiege auf Chinesisch lernt. "In Focus“ traf Jim Rogers Ende März in Hong Kong, anlässlich der von der Credit Suisse organisierten Asian Investment Conference, wo Jim Rogers eine seiner launigen und äusserst unterhaltsamen Reden hielt.

Andreas Thomann: Herr Rogers, wie steht es um das Chinesisch Ihrer kleinen Tochter?
Jim Rogers: Sehr gut. Sie ist erst knapp vier Jahre alt, doch sie spricht es bereits wie ihre Muttersprache. Ich habe ihr gerade 25 DVD’s auf Chinesisch gekauft, denn die sind in New York schwer aufzutreiben. Meine Tochter darf zuhause kein Fernseh schauen. Alles was sie kriegt, sind chinesische Geschichten auf DVD.

Ziemlich unkonventionelle Erziehungsmethoden.
Bestimmt. Doch für mich war klar: Wer im Jahr 2003 geboren ist, dem kann ich nichts Sinnvolleres auf den Weg geben als perfekte Kenntnisse in Mandarin.

Bei so viel Bewunderung für China müssten Sie eigentlich schon längst hierher gezogen sein?
Ich trage mich tatsächlich mit dem Gedanken. Ich würde sehr gerne nach China ziehen, weshalb ich im Moment versuche, mein Haus in New York zu verkaufen. Die Zukunft ist hier.

Was macht Sie so zuversichtlich?
China hatte viele erfolgreiche Phasen im Laufe seiner Geschichte. Es gab natürlich auch katastrophale Etappen. So gab es einen fast 300-jährigen Abstieg, der erst im Jahr 1978 endete, als Deng Xiaoping das Ruder übernahm und den Kapitalismus sowie freies Unternehmertum wiedereinführte. Aus welchem Grund auch immer scheinen die Chinesen sehr erfolgreiche Kapitalisten zu sein. Sie arbeiten hart, sparen viel und investieren ebenso viel. Sie wissen, wie Sie in der Schweiz leben. Und sie wollen genauso leben. Dafür sind sie bereit, so hart wie nötig zu arbeiten und so viel wie nötig zu sparen und zu investieren. Es gibt 1,3 Milliarden Chinesen in China, dazu kommen mehrere 100 Millionen, die ausserhalb Chinas leben, ausgestattet mit reichlich Know-how und Kapital, das sie nun ins Land zurückfliessen lassen, um es weiter zu entwickeln. Es passt einfach alles zusammen.

China kämpft schon jetzt mit beträchtlichen Umweltproblemen, obwohl der Pro-Kopf-Konsum noch bescheiden ist und beispielsweise erst eine Minderheit der 1,3 Milliarden Chinesen ein Auto hat. Stellt die Umwelt nicht ein mögliches Hindernis für die Entwicklung Chinas dar?
Natürlich wird es massive Auswirkungen auf die Umwelt haben, wenn 1,3 Milliarden Chinesen Auto fahren, eine Klimaanlage besitzen, modische Kleider kaufen oder ihre Essgewohnheiten umstellen. Ist das ein Problem? Ich weiss es nicht, ich bin kein Wissenschaftler. Schliesslich gibt es viele Leute, die behaupten, dass Autos keinen Einfluss auf den Kimawandel haben. Doch es besteht kein Zweifel: Wenn 1,3 Milliarden Konsumenten in den Weltmarkt treten, so hat das auf alle Fälle grosse Konsequenzen – welcher Art auch immer. Betrachtet man Asien als Ganzes, sind es sogar 3 Milliarden neuer Konsumenten.

Warum gibt’s eigentlich keine Jim Rogers Investment Fund für China?
Nun, ein solcher Anlagefonds würde mich zwingen, wieder zu arbeiten (seufzt) und es gibt einfach zu viele Dinge, die mir viel mehr Spass machen.

Wie können Anleger vom Aufstieg Chinas profitieren?
Die beste Art vom Aufstieg Chinas zu profitieren ist es, Rohstoffe zu kaufen. Denn die Chinesen BRAUCHEN Rohstoffe. Wenn Sie Nickel besitzen, dann werden Sie die Chinesen pünktlich bezahlen, sie werden nett zu Ihnen sein, Sie zum Abendessen einladen. Sie können natürlich auch Aktien von Rohstofffirmen kaufen und wenn Sie gut darin sind und die richtigen Aktien kaufen, werden Sie ein Vermögen machen in China. Aber dann müssen Sie sich Sorgen machen um den Aktienmarkt, das Management, die Zentralbank, die Gewerkschaften und hundert andere Dinge. Wenn Sie einfach nur Nickel kaufen, müssen Sie sich um all das nicht kümmern.

Lässt sich Ihr Optimismus auch auf Indien übertragen?
Überhaupt nicht. Indien hat ein fürchterliches Wirtschaftssystem. Freilich verfolgen die indischen Politiker die richtigen Konzepte und versuchen diese auch umzusetzen. Doch vieles scheitert an der Praxis, sprich an der durch und durch antikapitalistischen Bürokratie. So hat Indien kürzlich seine Rohstoffmärkte geschlossen mit der Begründung, dass sie an der galoppierenden Inflation schuld seien, was natürlich völlig verrückt ist. Die Preise klettern in Wahrheit nur deshalb nach oben, weil die Regierung viele Fehler macht und reichlich Geld druckt. Doch Politiker suchen die Schuld lieber bei den bösen Kapitalisten als bei sich selbst. Gegen Indien spricht auch die schlecht ausgebaute Infrastruktur. Ein Beispiel: Im Hafen von Schanghai allein wurden letztes Jahr 21 Millionen Container verladen. In sämtlichen Häfen Indiens wurden dagegen bloss 5 Millionen Container verladen. Indien ist nichts für Investoren, dafür ist es ein wunderbares Land für Touristen. Wenn Sie nur ein Land auf der Welt besuchen könnten, dann würde ich Ihnen empfehlen, nach Indien zu gehen.

Denken Sie, dass der Aufstieg Chinas eine Win-Win-Situation für den Westen darstellt?
Der Aufstieg irgendeines Landes sollte im Prinzip eine Win-Win-Situation darstellen. Unglücklickerweise lehrt uns die Geschichte das Gegenteil: Oftmals, wenn ein neues Land wirtschaftlich aufstieg, führte das früher oder später zum Abstieg der bisher dominierenden Länder. Hoffentlich tritt dieser Mechanismus noch nicht so schnell in Kraft. Aber es gibt leider überall unfähige Politiker, die verrückte Dinge tun.

Gibt es Länder, die eher unter einem erstarkenden China leiden könnte als andere?
Ja bestimmt, die USA leiden schon jetzt unter dem Aufstieg Chinas, umgekehrt ist man in Japan und Europa begeistert von dieser Entwicklung. Japan hat ein riesiges Handelsvolumen mit China, Europa ebenso, und beide haben auch einen Handelsüberschuss gegenüber China. Auch Vietnam und Südkorea verdanken ihren gegenwärtigen Boom teilweise der Tatsache, dass sie einen immer reicheren Nachbarn haben. Eigentlich müssten auch die USA profitieren, doch die haben das noch nicht begriffen.
http://emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/article/index.cfm?fus…

[schnucksche]

@ therefore und firsteven:

Ich habe einige Anregungen und Fragen, die sich mir auch getellt haben, zum Anlaß genommen, Wayne direkt damit zu konfrontieren. Ich bin sozusagen in freudiger Erwartung seiner Antwort. Vielleicht kann ich am späten Nachmittag schon etwas einstellen.

Es gibt bei BPM im Moment Einiges, was mich und viele andere auch stutzig macht.

Zum Einen ist es tatäschlich ungewöhnlich, dass über die Sondertilgung der 36 Mio $ aus dem Sprott-Moly-Funds-PP noch keine Mitteilung erfolgt ist. Es ergibt keine Logik, hier zuzuwarten, da durch die Tilgung eine gewisse Zinsersparnis generiert wird. Im Übrigen war dies ja auch von der IR ausrücklich angekündigt.

Zur Frage der Übernahme schlagen zwei Herzen in meiner Brust. Die generelle Aussage des Managements und auch der IR ist unisono "pay down the debt" !!!!

Die Kreditrückzahlung wurde teilweise schon so penetrant betont, dass ich mir wirklich nicht vorstellen kann, dass man dieses Ziel in angemessenem Zeitrahmen (spätestens 2008) aus den Augen verliert. Von der Aussage der Rückstellung für die Zahlung an die Altaktionäre halte ich ehrlich gesagt auch nichts. Dieser Betrag wird im laufenden Jahr noch mehrfach generiert, insoweit wirkt diese Aussage nicht wirklich schlüssig.

Tatsache ist, wir wissen es nicht genau, was in den Köpfen von Ian und Konsorten vorgeht. Dies ist aber kein Grund, in irgend einer Art und Weise unruhig zu werden. Vielmehr eröfnet dies viel Raum für Spekulationen in jede Richtung.

Ich für meinen Teil fühle mich in diesem Investment mit dieser Mannschaft an Bord und Ian McDonald am Ruder tatsächlich wie in Abraham´s Schoß

Fakt ist, dass hinsichtlich Sojitz nach wie gilt, dass die FS Davidson abzuwarten ist, da erst nach offiziellem Vorliegen der Zahlen eine Beteiligung bewertet werden kann. Ich geh dennoch natürlich davon aus, dass BPM und Sojitz selbstverständlich in engem Kontakt stehen und schon viele Dimnge besprochen sind. Natürlich ist auch vorstellbar, dass Sojitz, Blue und Sprott an einem Megadeal arbeiten, wenngleich ich diese Gedankengänge im Moment noch nicht so verinnerlichen kann.

Es wäre zu hinterfragen, welchen Nutzen dies für Blue Pearl mit sich bringen würde. Auf absehbare Zeit dürften die Röster ausgelastet sein, spätestens mit dem Bau der Super Pit und der damit einhergehenden Ausweitung der Produktion wird der Spielraum zumindest für weitere Röstung mehr als eng. Auf diese und andere Fragen werden wir sicher im Fall der Fälle interessante Antworten erhalten. Ich will keine weiteren Gedankengänge ausführen, dies würde hier zu weit führen, ich kann nur anführen, dass sicher im Hintergrund an vielen Varianten gearbeitet wird. Dies schliesse ich daraus, dass gewisse Antworten der IR umschrieben oder dazugehörige Fragen von der IR ignoriert werden

Zu RSR:

Es mag sein, dass die Kontakte zwischen RSR und BPM mehr als gut sind, aber auch RSR wird keine Insiderinfos haben. Die werdne sicher zwischen den Zeilen lesen, dennoch ist es auch für uns nicht wirklich schwer, die Zukunft von Blue Pealr zu prognostizieren. Und die Zahlen von Q1 wird jeder hier im Bord sicher auch in gewisser Art und Weise erwarten, da gab es mittlerweile ja genügend Möglichkeiten der Information und der Gedankenspiele. Die Tatsache, dass diese trotz der mittlerweile recht hohen Erwartungen sehr gut werden, kann anhand der Rahmendaten als nahezu sicher angesehen werden.

Was ich persönlich bei RSR nicht mag, ist diese Kehrtwendung um 180 Grad innerhalb einer Woche. Zuerst sollte man auch mal Gewinne mitnehmen, wenn man möchte, dass würde man keine einzige Aktie verkaufen etc. etc. Nun denn, soll hier nicht das Thema sein, deshalb keine weiteren Ausführungen dazu.

Zu GMP:

Ich hatte ja ausgeführt, dass GMP im letzten Monat knapp 4,2 Mio Aktien verkauft hat. Klar sitzen die auf Riesengewinnen, keine Frage, aber verinnerlicht, was 4,2 Millionen Aktien bedeutet. Rechnet mal aus, was dies prozentual an der Gesamtaktienzahl ausmacht.

Nun denkt mal an die exorbitant gestiegenen Shortzahlen. Auch GMP kann shorten

Ich weiß nicht, ob es da einen Zusammenhang gibt

Fakt ist, dass trotz des Anstieges der Shorts die Aktie bärenstark wie ein Fels in der Brandung dasteht. Wir haben nach wie vor ein Niveau nahe des ATH ... und dies trotz massiven Leerverkäufen. Nun wäre mal zu fragen, ob man vielleicht auch kursschonend leerverkaufen kann, wenn man ein gewisses Ziel damit verfolgt -->

KE und erneute Eindeckung im Rahmen der KE zu günstigeren Kursen ?

Das sind natürlich nur Gedankenspiele, ich habe keine Ahnung, wer leerverkauft hat, er übliche Verdächtige (Anonymous) war es jedenfalls nicht

Hier die Monatsübersicht zu Anonymous:

Total 9,709,700 160,800,769 16.56 9,840,200 162,143,685 16.48 -130,500 1,342,916

Im Übrigen ist dies nur bei GMP, nicht aber bei der UBS zu beobachten, die haben im letzten Monat knapp 600.000 Aktien per Saldo zugekauft.

Nun denn, wir werden uns überraschen lassen müssen, aber es wäre schön, wenn noch mehr hier im Thread ihre Gedanken zu den Ausführungen der unterschiedlichen User einfliessen lassen würden.

Euch allen noch einen schönen Sonntag

[schnucksche]

Sorry, habe gerade gesehen, dass die Beiträge von Firsteven und Therefore noch nicht drinstehen. Daher aus Gründen der Vollständigkeit hier der Hinweis dazu:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@therefore: da bin ich ganz deiner Meinung. Ich hatte ja vor 4-6 Wochen schonmal geschrieben, dass ich fest davon überzeugt bin, dass dieses Jahr auf jeden Fall noch eine Übernahme kommt. Vielleicht in der Dimension und dem Knalleffekt wie bei Thompson Creek? Zutrauen würde ich das Ian, dass er gerade an einem riesen Ding arbeitet. Das würde auch erklären, warum die FS von Davidson immer noch nicht fertig ist. Vielleicht läuft da auch was mit Sojitz zusammen?

Stellt euch mal vor Blue Pearl und Sojitz Moly (ist eine Tochter von Sojitz) tun sich irgendwie zusammen und übernehmen einen Moly-RIESEN?! Geld genug hätten die Japaner. Und mit Ian Mc Donald haben die Japaner eine Top Mann an Board der das Geschäft kennt. Das wissen die auch - daher haben die ja auch damals auf Steve Mooney entsprechend eingewirkt TC an Blue Pearl zu verkaufen.
UBS weiß inzwischen auch was Mc Donald für einer ist. Und Sprott würde auch noch weiteres Geld zur Verfügung stellen. Alleine schon deswegen, um zu verhindern, dass Blue Pearl (ihre Topposition im Sprott Moly Funds) übernommen wird. Sprott weiß ganz genau, dass der Sprott Moly Funds nur ein richtiger Erfolg wird, wenn Blue Pearl auch nach oben knallt und nicht von Rio Tinto o.a. aufgekauft wird.

Jetzt gilt es sich im Markt zu positionieren - für einigermaßen günstiges Geld. Wenn der Moly Preis erst bei 50 USD steht, dass wird es richtig teuer. Das ist wie im Uran Bereich. Vor 6 Monaten hätte man Forsys noch für unter 100 Mio. CAD (oder so) bekommen. Heute muß man schon ein vielfaches auf den Tisch legen.

Komisch ist auch, dass nach wie vor noch kein Vollzug oder noch keine Meldung zu dem Sprott IPO vermeldet wurde. Das sind immerhin 36 Mio. CAD!

Ian hatte angedeutet das er 2006 noch toppen wird bzw. keinen Gang zurück schalten wird. Wer Mc Donald und seine agressive Wachstumspolitik der letzten Jahre verfolgt hat, weiß, dass er nicht nach solch einem Deal wie mit TC Gott einen guten Mann sein läßt.

Der verschachtelte Satz von RSR ist halt auch komisch. Das war im Aug/Sep. 2006 genauso. 6 Tage vor der TC Übernahme hat RSR das Musterdepot mit Blue Pearl Aktien aufgestockt. Und am 01.09. wußte RSR auch schon einiges zu der geplanten Übernahme. RSR ist also suuuuuper im Bezug auf Blue Pearl informiert.
Vielleicht weiß RSR auch schon in etwa wie die Zahlen ausgefallen sind.

Alles Spekulationen und Gedanken rund um unsere Perle. Aber ich bin mir sicher, dass dieses Jahr noch mit einigen Überraschungen zu rechnen ist.
Diese Tatik von wegen "wir müssen erst einmal die Schulden tilgen" - das kann alles nur Masche sein und die Konkurrenz in Sicherheit zu wiegen und einen weiteren Deal in Ruhe vorzubereiten. Warten wir es ab - vielleicht sind wir nächste Woche Donnerstag/Freitag schon schlauer was sie vor haben.


Beitrag Therefore:

GMP hat demzufolge im letzten Monat knapp 4,2 Millionen Aktien per Saldo verkauft. Ist schon eine ganze Menge in meinen Augen.

Man kann nun in verschiedenen Richtungen denken. Eine ähnliche Situation hatten wir bereits Anfang des Jahres diskutiert, als Gerüchte über eine KE die Runde machten.

Hallo Schnucksche,

da ich anhand des Verhaltens des Managements in nächster Zeit mit der Bekanntgabe einer Übernahme rechne, ist deine Beobachtung noch ein zusätzlicher Mosaikstein für das Gesamtbild.

Folgende Punkte veranlassen mich zu meiner These:
1. Der hohe Cashbestand, der nur zu einem Teil zur Schuldenreduzierung eingesetzt wird. Bei den hohen und steigenden Molypreisen und den bestehenden Kundenverträgen könnte man ohne Probleme wesentlich höhere Beträge abbezahlen. Kaufmännisch macht das Verhalten wenig Sinn.
2. Das Privat Placement mit Sprott wurde bisher noch nicht für eine Sondertilgung eingesetzt. Dies verwundert mich und die bekanntgabe eine Zweckänderung würde mich nicht mehr überraschen.
3. Die Verkäufe bei GMP
Nach dem nicht eingelösten Januarversprechen müssen die damals fehlinformierten Investoren jetzt aber mit einer tatsächlichen Kapitalerhöhung beglückt werden. Das Vertrauen in die Bank könnte sonst einen nicht mehr zu behebenden Schaden nehmen.
4. Die Informationen durch Ian und von Wayne zwingem einem gerade zu der Vermutung. Das Datum 2008 als Zieltermin ist in meinen Augen nur ein Ablenkungsmanöver.

Würden unsere Vermutungen zutreffen, dann stände aber eine Übernahme direkt bevor und wir würden am Donnerstag dazu nähere Informationen erhalten müssen. Zumindest, wenn das PP anderweitig eingesetzt wird.

Gibt es aber eine Übernahme, dann wird es am Donnerstag eventuell den Namen des Kandidaten, aber mit Sicherheit die Ankündigung des Deals und die Ankündigung einer Kapitalerhöhung oder eines PP für den Deal geben müssen. Nach dem Verahlten von GMP gehe ich von einem oder mehreren PP aus. GMP, Eric Sprott, Sprott Assett Management, UBS) werden hier die Investoren sein.

Damit sollte dann die Seitwärtsbewegung ein jähes Ende nehmen und auch die Übernahme von BluePearl wieder etwas schwere werden, wenn nicht ganz unmöglich werden.

Ich erinnere mich noch an die Worte von RSR kurz vor der Übernahme von TC. Sinngemäss die gleichen Worte tauchten in der gestrigen Information auf.

Da Ian ein gradliniger Mensch ist und auch Dankbarkeit kennt, gehe ich davon aus, das RSR als ein Hauptförderer von BluePearl hier zwischen den Zeilen Andeutungen erhält, die wir so niemals bekommen werden. Letztendlich hat Ian mit seiner Mannschaft auch durch die Hilfe der Börsenbriefe die Vorraussetzungen erhalten, TC überhaupt übernehmen zu können.

Ich persönlich finde das Gut und ich kann auch in der Zwischenzeit bei RSR die Gerüchtestreuung für das Abzocken der Lemminge und die fundierten Ankündigungen von guten Nachrichten anhand der Wortwahl recht gut unterscheiden.

Also gehe ich davon aus, dass es am Donnerstag noch etwas mehr als nur die guten Zahlen geben wird.

therefore

[Firsteven]

von schnucksche


@ therefore und firsteven:

Ich habe einige Anregungen und Fragen, die sich mir auch getellt haben, zum Anlaß genommen, Wayne direkt damit zu konfrontieren. Ich bin sozusagen in freudiger Erwartung seiner Antwort. Vielleicht kann ich am späten Nachmittag schon etwas einstellen.

Es gibt bei BPM im Moment Einiges, was mich und viele andere auch stutzig macht.

Zum Einen ist es tatäschlich ungewöhnlich, dass über die Sondertilgung der 36 Mio $ aus dem Sprott-Moly-Funds-PP noch keine Mitteilung erfolgt ist. Es ergibt keine Logik, hier zuzuwarten, da durch die Tilgung eine gewisse Zinsersparnis generiert wird. Im Übrigen war dies ja auch von der IR ausrücklich angekündigt.

Zur Frage der Übernahme schlagen zwei Herzen in meiner Brust. Die generelle Aussage des Managements und auch der IR ist unisono "pay down the debt" !!!!

Die Kreditrückzahlung wurde teilweise schon so penetrant betont, dass ich mir wirklich nicht vorstellen kann, dass man dieses Ziel in angemessenem Zeitrahmen (spätestens 2008) aus den Augen verliert. Von der Aussage der Rückstellung für die Zahlung an die Altaktionäre halte ich ehrlich gesagt auch nichts. Dieser Betrag wird im laufenden Jahr noch mehrfach generiert, insoweit wirkt diese Aussage nicht wirklich schlüssig.

Tatsache ist, wir wissen es nicht genau, was in den Köpfen von Ian und Konsorten vorgeht. Dies ist aber kein Grund, in irgend einer Art und Weise unruhig zu werden. Vielmehr eröfnet dies viel Raum für Spekulationen in jede Richtung.

Ich für meinen Teil fühle mich in diesem Investment mit dieser Mannschaft an Bord und Ian McDonald am Ruder tatsächlich wie in Abraham´s Schoß

Fakt ist, dass hinsichtlich Sojitz nach wie gilt, dass die FS Davidson abzuwarten ist, da erst nach offiziellem Vorliegen der Zahlen eine Beteiligung bewertet werden kann. Ich geh dennoch natürlich davon aus, dass BPM und Sojitz selbstverständlich in engem Kontakt stehen und schon viele Dimnge besprochen sind. Natürlich ist auch vorstellbar, dass Sojitz, Blue und Sprott an einem Megadeal arbeiten, wenngleich ich diese Gedankengänge im Moment noch nicht so verinnerlichen kann.

Es wäre zu hinterfragen, welchen Nutzen dies für Blue Pearl mit sich bringen würde. Auf absehbare Zeit dürften die Röster ausgelastet sein, spätestens mit dem Bau der Super Pit und der damit einhergehenden Ausweitung der Produktion wird der Spielraum zumindest für weitere Röstung mehr als eng. Auf diese und andere Fragen werden wir sicher im Fall der Fälle interessante Antworten erhalten. Ich will keine weiteren Gedankengänge ausführen, dies würde hier zu weit führen, ich kann nur anführen, dass sicher im Hintergrund an vielen Varianten gearbeitet wird. Dies schliesse ich daraus, dass gewisse Antworten der IR umschrieben oder dazugehörige Fragen von der IR ignoriert werden

Zu RSR:

Es mag sein, dass die Kontakte zwischen RSR und BPM mehr als gut sind, aber auch RSR wird keine Insiderinfos haben. Die werdne sicher zwischen den Zeilen lesen, dennoch ist es auch für uns nicht wirklich schwer, die Zukunft von Blue Pealr zu prognostizieren. Und die Zahlen von Q1 wird jeder hier im Bord sicher auch in gewisser Art und Weise erwarten, da gab es mittlerweile ja genügend Möglichkeiten der Information und der Gedankenspiele. Die Tatsache, dass diese trotz der mittlerweile recht hohen Erwartungen sehr gut werden, kann anhand der Rahmendaten als nahezu sicher angesehen werden.

Was ich persönlich bei RSR nicht mag, ist diese Kehrtwendung um 180 Grad innerhalb einer Woche. Zuerst sollte man auch mal Gewinne mitnehmen, wenn man möchte, dass würde man keine einzige Aktie verkaufen etc. etc. Nun denn, soll hier nicht das Thema sein, deshalb keine weiteren Ausführungen dazu.

Zu GMP:

Ich hatte ja ausgeführt, dass GMP im letzten Monat knapp 4,2 Mio Aktien verkauft hat. Klar sitzen die auf Riesengewinnen, keine Frage, aber verinnerlicht, was 4,2 Millionen Aktien bedeutet. Rechnet mal aus, was dies prozentual an der Gesamtaktienzahl ausmacht.

Nun denkt mal an die exorbitant gestiegenen Shortzahlen. Auch GMP kann shorten

Ich weiß nicht, ob es da einen Zusammenhang gibt

Fakt ist, dass trotz des Anstieges der Shorts die Aktie bärenstark wie ein Fels in der Brandung dasteht. Wir haben nach wie vor ein Niveau nahe des ATH ... und dies trotz massiven Leerverkäufen. Nun wäre mal zu fragen, ob man vielleicht auch kursschonend leerverkaufen kann, wenn man ein gewisses Ziel damit verfolgt -->

KE und erneute Eindeckung im Rahmen der KE zu günstigeren Kursen ?

Das sind natürlich nur Gedankenspiele, ich habe keine Ahnung, wer leerverkauft hat, er übliche Verdächtige (Anonymous) war es jedenfalls nicht

Hier die Monatsübersicht zu Anonymous:

Total 9,709,700 160,800,769 16.56 9,840,200 162,143,685 16.48 -130,500 1,342,916

Im Übrigen ist dies nur bei GMP, nicht aber bei der UBS zu beobachten, die haben im letzten Monat knapp 600.000 Aktien per Saldo zugekauft.

Nun denn, wir werden uns überraschen lassen müssen, aber es wäre schön, wenn noch mehr hier im Thread ihre Gedanken zu den Ausführungen der unterschiedlichen User einfliessen lassen würden.

Euch allen noch einen schönen Sonntag

[Firsteven]

@therefore und schnucksche

ich denke man muß bei blue pearl und ian immer mit dem unerwarteten rechnen.

wer hätte im august 2006 gedacht, das bpm einen producer übernimmt?
deshalb wird diese übernahme ja auch als übernahme des jahrzehnts bewertet.

ian hat mit dem tc-deal bewiesen zu was er im stande ist.

ich bin sehr positiv für den weiteren kursverlauf, die wirtschaftlichen zahlen und die resourcen u. reserven gestimmt.
das alles wird den kurs in nächster zeit weiter steigen lassen.

sofern jedoch ian, sprott und co. nicht wollen, dass blue pearl von einem großen geschluckt wird - müssen sie die flucht nach vorne antreten indem der kurs nach oben gebracht wird.
aber selbst das wird einen großen nicht daran hindern blue pearl zu übernehmen. einem großen ist es egal ob er für bpm 2,5 mrd. cad oder 5 mrd. cad auf den tisch legen muß, sofern die zukunftsaussichten stimmen (steigender moly preis, moly-resourcen etc.). daher kann man m.e. keine zeit verschenken und gemütlich die schulden zurück zahlen und nächstes jahr - z.b. im sommer ist man schuldenfrei und im dez. 2008 weiß man nicht wohin mit dem geld - und blue pearl wird geschluckt.

in einen eher mittelmäßigen explorer zu investieren - dürfte nächstes jahr - bei einer annahme von einem moly-preis von 50 usd - schon wesentlich teuerer sein als dieses jahr. wobei ja klar sein dürfte, dass bp nur in einen producer investieren wird oder in eine firma die kurz vor der produktion steht oder ansonsten sehr gut aufgestellt ist.

schonmal dran gedacht das sich blue pearl vielleicht nicht in einem anderen sektor umsieht? was ist mit einem nickel oder zink-producer??? ian kennt sich von den wheaton river zeiten sehr gut mit gold aus! alles möglich. bei ian und blue pearl sind wir in den letzten monaten immer gelehrt worden - das das unmögliche möglich gemacht wird und das unerwartete eintrifft.

mega bullish ist zu werten, dass wir trotz der hohen short daten dennoch auf nahezu ath notieren. besser geht es nicht.

ian hat bei wheaton river schon durch seine agressive politik geglänzt. jetzt wird der kuchen im rohstoffmarkt verteilt. jetzt kann man sich positionieren und nicht in 2008 - wenn blue pearl schuldenfrei ist - und die besten firmen weg sind.

mit tc hat man es vorgemacht. die gelegenheit den riesen tc zu übernehmen hat man am schopfe gepackt - bevor es ein großer getan hat. die großen haben sich alle nur gewundert und geärgert. nun gehört blue pearl auch so den großen!

warum soll das nicht so weiter gehen???

tc/endako hat man in der blue pearl gruppe integriert.
viele prozeße hat man angestossen (neue super pit, neue resourcenschätzungen, die arbeitszeiten bei den minen 7 days on - 7 days off, kevin loughrey hat man als ceo installiert) - der laden läuft und generiert einen super cash flow. der aktienkurs steigt. alles optimal.

ian ist der macher. einer der gerne verhandelt und verträge schließt und den shareholdervalue weiter nach vorne bringt.

was soll er jetzt machen wenn alles seinen gang geht?
die laufenden geschäfte kann auch kevin l. leiten - dafür ist er ja ceo geworden - darum wird sich ian nicht mehr drum kümmern.

ian wird weiter nach möglichkeiten und firmen suchen - die blue pearl noch größer und teuerer (marktkapitalisierung) machen werden.

sind nur mal so gedanken von mir!

[Firsteven]

schonmal dran gedacht das sich blue pearl vielleicht nicht in einem anderen sektor umsieht? was ist mit einem nickel oder zink-producer??? ian kennt sich von den wheaton river zeiten sehr gut mit gold aus! alles möglich. bei ian und blue pearl sind wir in den letzten monaten immer gelehrt worden - das das unmögliche möglich gemacht wird und das unerwartete eintrifft.

Hallo Firsteven,

die Frage habe ich Wayne in mindestens drei unterschiedlichen Varianten gestellt.

Darauf erhielt ich jedesmal die Antworten aus dem Interview mit Ian (Kupfer/Moly und vorraussichtlich in 2008).

Die Frage nach einer anderen Sparte wurde immer überlesen. Da Wayne bisher niemals gelogen hat, kann es sein, dass er hier nicht antworten konnte.

Es kann daher gut möglich sein, dass ein unerwarteter Meggadeal in einem ganz anderem Bereich kommt. Das würde uns nicht wirklich Überraschen.

Aber irgend etwas für den Markt unerwartetes wird kommen.

therefore

[schnucksche]

Hallo und guten Abend @ all nochmal:

Ich hatte heute morgen mitgeteilt, dass ich gestern Wayne angemailt habe und einige Fragen gestellt habe. Ich habe, wie erwartet, heute bereits die Antwort erhalten und will euch die wesentlichen Infos nicht vorenthalten:

Ich werde euch meine Fragen beschreiben und dann die Originalantwort von Wayne einstellen:

Meine erste Frage bezog sich auf die Q 1-Zahlen und die Möglichkeit ggf. via Livestream dabei zu sein.

WC: At this point, we are planning to give the specifics of the conference call and webcast in the Q1 news release. We are hoping to be able to issue the release late in the afternoon May 10, with the conference call to be held at 10 am Eastern on May 11. This assumes no accounting delays. Also, May 10 at 4 pm Eastern we will have the annual general meeting, which will also be webcast and links to that will be provided on our website and www.ccnmatthews.com.

Zweite Frage bezog sich auf den Molypreis und die derzeitige Preisstruktur bei BPM (wie wird es im Moment an den Mann gebracht)?

WC: We don’t provide specific selling prices week by week. We provide average selling prices in our quarterly statements. With respect to the prices we receive, there is often a one month delay. For example, in our volume contracts which make up about 70 per cent of our sales, the prices we get in May are the average of the prices reported by Ryan’s Notes or Metals Week (depending on the contract)for the previous month (April). The remaining 30% is sold on the spot market directly to customers (not via brokers). Keep in mind that moly oxide prices are something like $2 or $3 per pound below ferromoly prices. In the first week of May, Ryan’s Notes reported moly oxide prices averaging just under $29 per pound in the U.S.

Dritte Frage bezog sich auf die aktuellen Shortzahlen und die evtl. Gründe:


WC: I don’t know for sure about the short selling. I have asked dealers about the short-selling and they say it is a situation where for the most part investors have sold the stock short against ownership positions in the warrants. As for the selling, there may be selling because of the gain, but remember we have buyers as well. A Fund Manager from Canada, Michael Smedley, told BNN TV last Tuesday on MarketCall that he had been buying recently


Vierte Frage zu Davidson und TC (neuer Sachstand)?

WC: There is no change. On Davidson, when the consultants finish their work and we can release the information, we will. The consultants are very busy with work from mining companies and other companies also are encountering delays. On Thompson Creek, we have said that we have to provide detailed plans and costs for a tailings facility to the consultants before they can finish their work and we are working hard to produce that information. The consultants need the costs associated with the tailings before they can provide estimates of reserves at Thompson Creek. We don’t have a timetable to annouce for these reports.


Fünfte Frage zu Sprott und den 36 Mio $:

WC: The debt was reduced as planned. Since we had said that we would do it and we did it, we didn’t think there was need for a special release, especially since we have a Q1 release coming up and there would be an opportunity to confirm it in that release.


Letzte Frage zur derzeitigen Struktur (ggf. Änderungen) der Anteilseigner.

WC: The latest calculation I have is that directors and management own about 4% of the shares and 6% of the shares, options and warrants outstanding. I am not in the office to check if we publish this in the information circular for the annual general meeting, but it might be in there and it is filed at www.sedar.com.


Außerdem habe ich ihm mal im Namen der deutschen Aktionäre einen herzlichen Dank für die gute IR ausgesprochen.

Gute N8 @ all

[ruhtra]

Sorry, die Übersicht soll an den Seitenanfang.
ruhtra

[ruhtra]

Stand: 08. Mai 2007


Auswirkungen (Hebel) auf die Einnahmenseite von Blue Pearl siehe Beitrag von Firsteven unter http://www.wallstreetonline.de/informer/community/thread.htm…

Folgender Text soll einen Überblick über die aktuellen Fakten zu Blue Pearl geben. Ich habe die Details aus Beiträgen von verschiedenen Usern im Bewertungs- u. Hauptthread übernommen, da meine Kenntnisse nicht ausreichen, eigenständig eine fehlerfreie Übersicht zu erstellen. Ich betrachte diese selbstgewählte Fleißarbeit in erster Linie als Bringschuld für die Hilfe u. Unterstützung, die ich in diesem für mich einmaligen Thread immer wieder erfahre.

Namen und Beiträge finden sich unter “Schlüsselbeiträge 1“ im Thread: "Faktenübersicht u. Schlüsselbeiträge".

Hinweis besonders für Einsteiger:
Ausführliche Erläuterungen rund um “Molybdän“, sowie Begriffsbestimmungen zu Börse allgemein (z.B. “Ressourcen“ u. “Reserven“, Cut-off-Grad , KGV, Optionen/Warrants) finden sich unter “Schlüsselbeiträge 1+2“!



LIEGENSCHAFTEN / PRODUKTIONSSTÄTTEN



1. ENDAKO (förd. Tagebau-Mine u. Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
- Endako wurde 1965 gebaut, 1997 von Thompson Creek (TC) gekauft u. im September 2006 an BPM verkauft (Kaufpreis 575 Mio USD – bezahlt im Oktober 2006).
- 75% gehören BPM u. 25% Sojitz, einer großen japanischen Handelsgesellschaft.
- Sojitz ist gleichzeitig Verkaufsagent für Japan und Teile von Asien.

Bis zur Veröffentlichung des lange erwarteten Ressourcenberichts mußten wir für Endako bei Rohstoffreserven in Höhe von gerade mal 103 Mio Pfund Moly (Proven and Probable Reserves) von einer Minen-Restlaufzeit von 6 Jahren ausgehen.
Nach dem vorliegenden Ressourcennachweis vom 16. April 2007 können wir, je nach Cut-off-Grad, von einer Rohstoffmenge im Boden zwischen 282 u. 463 Mio Pfund Moly, sowie einer Minenlaufzeit zwischen 21 u. 35 Jahren ausgehen. Durch die Erstellung einer Studie (Zusammenfassung der 3 getrennten Abbaugebiete zu einem riesigen Super-Pit u. Erhöhung der Produktion um etwa 60%) im Laufe des Jahres 2007 soll die Möglichkeit nachgewiesen werden, dass diese Rohstoffmenge wirtschaftlich abgebaut werden kann.
Auf einen ganz knappen Nenner gebracht: Diese News weitet die im Boden vorhandenen Rohstoffmengen, je nach erforderlichem Cut-off-Grad, bis zum 4 1/2-fachen aus und verlängert die Minenlebensdauer ganz dramatisch.
Detailierte Erläuterungen hierzu im Beitrag von chartex unter: http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…
- Endako verarbeitet 15 Mio Pfund Moly pro Jahr (Röstkapazität).


2. THOMPSON CREEK (fördernde Tagebau-Mine)
Thompson Creek hatte 2005 (Geschäftsjahr endet im Sept.) insgesamt 845 Mio $ Erlöse. In 2006 waren es 805 Mio USD.
Anm.: Erlöse sind nicht Gewinn - es gehen noch Kosten und evtl. Steuern ab). Alle Angaben in USD. Die durchschnittlichen Produktionskosten betrugen etwa 4,50$ pro Pfund (etwas unterschiedlich je nach Jahr).

Die Thompson-Creek-Mine ist das Juwel des Unternehmens.
- Sie wurde 1983 von Standart Oil zum Preis von 350 Mio $ gebaut.
- Um diese Mine heute so aufzubauen, wäre ein Kapital von mehr als 1 Milliarde $ erforderlich.
- Sie ist weltweit die zweitgrößte Moly-Tagebau-Mine.

Die derzeit nachgewiesenen Rohstoffe reichen für eine weiteren Abbau von 10 Jahren. Diese letzte Berechnung wurde bei einem Moly-Preisniveau von 5$ durchgeführt. Es ist die Aufgabe des Managements, ausgehend von einem Preis von 10$ eine neue Berechnung anzustellen und die nachgewiesenen u. wirtschaftlich abbaubaren Rohstoffe entsprechend auszuweiten.
Anm.: Bei einem Moly-Preis von 5$ ist es nur begrenzt sinnvoll, große Mengen an taubem Gestein zu entfernen, um an die tiefer gelegenen Moly-Vorräte zu kommen. Bei einem Moly-Preis von 10$ (oder natürlich mehr) kann man viel mehr taubes Gestein wegräumen (also zusätzliche Kosten in Kauf nehmen) ohne in die Verlustzone zu gelangen. Die mit Gewinn abbaubaren Moly-Vorräte können zu diesem höheren Preis ganz erheblich ausgeweitet werden (siehe auch die sehr aufschlußreiche Grafik aus der Präsentation im ersten Posting im Präsentations-Thread.

Rohstoffreserven u. Rohstoffressourcen von Thompson-Creek:
170 Mio Pfund Reserven (wirtschaftlich abbaubar)
370 Mio Pfund Ressourcen (nachgewiesen)
420 Mio Pfund vermutet (inferred)
Der neue Ressourcenbericht mit höheren Werten dürfte bald vorliegen.
Es werden täglich 30.000 t abgebaut.
Für 2008 ist eine drastische Erhöhung auf 50.000 Tonnen pro Tag vorgesehen.


3. DAVIDSON-PROJEKT (geplante Untertage-Mine)
- Größtes Molybdänprojekt der Welt, welches noch nicht in Produktion ist!
- Das Davidson-Projekt ist die größte Moly-Lagerstätte in Kanada.
- Es sollen aus dem hochgradigen Teil der Lagerstätte 2000 t pro Tag abgebaut werden und nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung geschafft werden. Der Transport soll nicht auf der Schiene sondern mit LKW erfolgen, da dies kostengünstiger ist.
- In Davidson wird Moly mit einer Konzentration von 0,36 - 0,38% abgebaut werden. Dies ist weltweit die höchste Konzentration. Die zweitgrößte Konzentration hat derzeit die Henderson-Mine mit 0,28%.

Topgehalte vom Davidson-Projekt
03.02.2006: 48.8 metres grading 0.46% MoS2
28.02.2006: 0.47% MoS2 over 39.6 metres
12.04.2006: 12.2-metre intersection grading 0.797% MoS2.
15.06.2006:
122-metre intersection grading 0.670% MoS2
15.3 metres grading 1.920% MoS2 (weltspitze)
15.2 metres grading 1.262% MoS2
137.2-metre intercept grading 0.521% MoS2
Anm.: Wir haben also seit Juni 2006 keine neuen Bohrergebnisse mehr über das Davidson-Projekt bekommen, da ja auf die Machbarkeitsstudie (FS) verwiesen wurde. Insoweit kann man davon ausgehen, dass diese weiteren Ergebnisse im Rahmen der FS berücksichtigt werden. Lt. Auskunft der IR-Abteilung wird weiterhin gebohrt!

Kostenkalkulation für das Davidson-Projekt
Das Erz muss nur aus dem Berg geholt und nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung gebracht werden. Von der Kostenseite her sind die Aufwendungen daher eher als gering anzusehen.
Ian McDonald kalkuliert hierfür Kosten in einer zweistelligen Millionenhöhe (lt. GMP ca. 55 Mio) ein. Anm.: Somit ist eine wichtige Frage geklärt, wie es finanziert wird, Davidson in Produktion zu bringen. Dieser überschaubare Betrag kann aus den laufenden Einnahmen bestritten werden. Nochmals zu Erinnerung: BPM verdient z.Zt. am Tag knapp 1,2 Mio USD! Wichtig zu wissen: Die Errichtung einer neuen Mine bis Produktionsbeginn kostet ca. 500 Mio Dollar. Dadurch ist es für neue Unternehmen extrem schwierig, überhaupt bis zum Stadium der Produktion zu kommen. Blue Pearl hat mit der Übernahme von TC im September 2006 auf elegante Weise diese Klippe umschifft!


4. LANGELOTH - METALLURGICAL FACILITY (Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
- Langeloth verarbeitet 35 Mio Pfund Moly pro Jahr (Röstkapazität).
- Die halbe Kapazität wird für die eigene Minenproduktion verwendet. Mit der anderen Hälfte wird für andere Minengesellschaften (Fremdröstung) geröstet.
- Zusätzlich kauft BPM am Markt Moly zur Weiterverarbeitung auf u. führt Moly-Recycling durch.
- Diese zusätzliche Auslastung hilft, die eigenen Produktionskosten pro Pfund zu senken.
- Langeloth produziert das weltweit beste Ferro-Molybdän.
- Das beste Molybdän (1/3 der Weltproduktion) kommt von reinen Moly-Herstellern (also nicht als Abfallprodukt der Kupfer-Produktion).
- Langeloth wurde 1924 gebaut. Es befindet sich in ausgezeichnetem Zustand, da jeden September für 3 Wochen die Produktion für eine Generalüberholung unterbrochen wird.
Anm.: Es ist äußerst schwierig, eine derartige Verarbeitungsanlage neu genehmigt zu bekommen!


GMP-ANALYSE vom 13.02.2007

Die Aktie wird als BUY eingestuft
Kursziel = 14,00 CAD (Anm.: aktualisiert 19,85 CAD)
Arbeitskapital = 200 Mio USD

Gewinn (Ebitda) 2006e = 91 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2007e = 357 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2008e = 520 Mio USD

Molybdänpreis 2006 = 24,75 USD
Molybdänpreis 2007e = 24,75 USD
Molybdänpreis 2008e = 25,00 USD
Der Moly-Markt ist derzeit ausgeglichen.
Es wird erwartet, dass dies zumindest bis 2009 so bleibt.

Netto-Schulden = 312 Mio USD
- Es wird erwartet, dass BPM nach derzeitigem Stand bis 2009 die Schulden komplett zurückzahlen wird. Anm.:. Die Entwicklung des Moly-Preises – derzeit 30,25 $ - lässt erwarten, dass die Tilgung bereits Anfang 2008 abgeschlossen wird!
- Es ist signifikantes Potenzial zur Steigerung des Cash-Flow und der Finanzkraft vorhanden.
- Diese Beurteilung wird auch unterstützt durch die Tatsache, dass dem früheren Eigentümer von Thompson Creek bereits die Summe von 61,5 Mio Dollar aus den Einnahmen der letzten 9 Wochen des Jahres 2006 bezahlt werden konnten !!!
- Gestützt auf unsere Vorhersage des Molybdänpreises erwarten wir, dass BPM mehr als genügend Geld erwirtschaftet, um die insgesamt 125 Mio Dollar Kontingentzahlung zu bestreiten, und leicht die vorhandenen Schulden in Höhe von netto 312 Mio Dollar bis 2009 zu tilgen.
Anm.: Zur Kontingentzahlung: Ein nachträglicher Kaufpreis wird fällig, wenn der Molypreis in den Jahren 2008 bis 2010 entsprechend über 15 Dollar bleibt.
Schuldentilgung lt. Bedingungen eigentlich erst bis 2011 bzw. 2013!!!.
- Weiterhin erwarten wir, dass BPM die Errichtung der Davidson-Mine (Kosten ca. 55 Mio Dollar) aus den laufenden Einnahmen bezahlen kann.
- Mit der Aussicht, aus der Ausübung von Warrants weitere 200 Mio $ einzunehmen, könnten die Schulden bereits vor Ende 2009 abbezahlt werden.


VERSCHIEDENES

BPM ist der größte Molybdän-Produzent in den USA.

Blue Pearl hat eine Gesamt-Röstkapazität von 50 Mio Pfund pro Jahr (15 Mio in Endako und 35 Mio in Langeloth).

Blue Pearl produziert 5 % u. verarbeitet 9 % der Weltnachfrage!!!
Häufigste Nutzung: Pipelines (80.000 weitere km sind weltweit geplant), Autos u. rostfreier Stahl.[/b]

Aufgrund der hohen Moly-Qualität kann BPM auf den Marktpreis einen Aufschlag von 2-3% verlangen.

Gesamtreserven u. Gesamtressourcen von BPM:
Vor den neuen Schätzungen zu Endako betrug die
+ Gesamtressourcenmenge 743 Mio Pfund Moly (ohne vermutete/inferred Mengen),
+ Gesamtreservenmenge 272 Mio Pfund,
zusammen also 1015 Mio Pfund.
Der derzeit aktuelle Stand beträgt, je nach Cut-Off-Grad, zusammen 1114 bis 1295 Mio Pfund und wird mit den erwarteten Studien für Davidson und Thompson Creek noch einmal stark ausgeweitet werden.

Die Molyförderung ist wie folgt geplant:[/u]
2007: 21 Mio Pfund
2008: 27 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 2 Mio aus Davidson)
2009: 29 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 5 Mio aus Davidson)

Es ist auch zu berücksichtigen, dass ca. 8 Mio Pfund bei der Übernahme von TC verkaufsfertig auf Lager lagen. Der Verkauf wird mehr als einen Ausgleich für den Produktionsrückgang von 26 auf 21 Mio Pfund in 2007 darstellen!

Die UBS, eine der weltweit größten Banken, gewährte BPM zur Übernahme von TC einen Kredit über knapp 500 Mio CAD. Anm.: 30 UBS-Mitarbeiter haben den Deal und den Kredit bearbeitet und geprüft!).

Die Sojitz-Gruppe (japan. Handelsgesellschaft, die 25% an Endako hält) als Partner für den asiatischen Raum.

Sprott (kanad. Investmenthaus) hat sich schon vor der TC-Übernahme im Sept. 20006 mit 13% an Blue Pearl beteiligt!

Sprott hat im vergangenen Monat (April) einen Moly-Fonds mit einem Grundkapital von 200 Mio CAD aufgelegt (Überzeichnung, geplant waren 75 Mio CAD!!!), der an der Toronto Stock Exchange gelistet ist.
+ Der Bekanntheitsgrad des Rohstoffs “Molybdän“ ist seitdem, noch verstärkt durch den fast gleichzeitig erfolgten, 400-fach überzeichneten Börsengang von ´China Molybdenum´, nachhaltig gestiegen.
+ Investiert wird bis zu 50% in das Metall selber, sowie in Aktien von Moly-Explorern u. Produzenten.
+ Als Berater fungiert BPM!!!
+ Kauf u. Verkauf des Moly erfolgt durch BPM!!!
+ Top-Ten-Holdings (BPM Platz 1) des Sprott-Fonds unter: http://www.sprottmoly.com/img-4230849-0001.pdf
Anm.: Sprotts Uran-Fonds (aufgelegt 2005) hält 4,2 Mio Pfund U380. Durchschnittlicher Kaufpreis lag bei 32 USD – aktuell notiert Uran bei ca. 120 USD!

Mit Stand 15.02.2007 befanden sich 17.6% aller Blue Pearl-Aktien in den Händen von 13 institutionellen Anlegern – der aktuelle Stand dürfte erheblich höher liegen.
Das Management hält 4% (unter Einbeziehung der Warrants 6%) der Blue Pearl- Aktien.

Kein politisches Risiko: Projekte/Minen ausschließlich in USA/Kanada.

Blue Pearl hat nicht nur die Ressourcen u. Röstkapazitäten von TC übernommen, sondern auch erfahrene Mitarbeiter, die z.Zt. in der gesamten Minenindustrie sehr rar sind.


KREDITTILGUNG
Die Höhe der Kredittilgung an UBS ist wie folgt vorgesehen:
Tilgung 2007: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2008: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2009: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2010: 50 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2011: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2012: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Die Tilgung erfolgt jeweils vierteljährlich zu gleichen Raten.
Somit sind in 2007 jeweils vierteljährl. 18,75 Mio US-Dollar an Tilgung zu bezahlen.
- Infos zum Zinssatz auf www.sedar.com unter “material documents“ vom 06.11.2006.
- Blue Pearl zahlte im März 2007 62 Mio Dollar Kreditschulden für die Thompson-Creek-Übernahme vorzeitig zurück!!!

QUARTALSBERICHT Q4/06 vom 26.03.2007
Die wesentlichen Fakten wurden eingearbeitet.
Finanztechnische Details des Berichts werden von chartex im Beitrag 97681 erläutert:
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/informer/community/thread.ht…

BESITZ bzw. BESITZANTEILE
Endako-Mine = 75 %
Thomspon-Creek-Mine = 100 %
Langeloth (Verarbeitungsanlage) = 100 %
Davidson-Vorkommen = 100 %

RAHMENDATEN
Shares = 108.399.158
Shares (voll verwässert) = 140.300.629
Warrants = 24,647,471
Share options: 7.254.000
Arbeitskapital = 190 Mio $
Schulden = ca. 320 Mio $ (von ursprünglich 402 Mio!!!)
Anm.: Die 36 Mio aus dem Sprott-PP sollen zusätzlich zur Schuldentilgung dienen!
Marktkapitalisierung (MK) = derzeit ca. 1.8 Milliarden CAD
Reserven/Ressourcen (Annahme Sprott) = ca. 25 Mrd. USD
KGV = im niedrigen einstelligen Bereich
Gewinn = Beim dztg. Molypreis generiert BPM täglich über 1 Mio USD

KURSZIELE (Stand 08.05.2007)
UBS = 21,50 CAD
GMP = 19,85 CAD
Sprott = 28,00 CAD (bei einem Moly-Preis über 20 USD)
Paradigm = 19,00 CAD
Desjardins Securities Target = 21.40 CAD
BMO = 21.40 CAD

Erwarteter “NEWSFLOW“
Quartalsbericht für Q1/07: 10. Mai 2007.
Ressourcenbericht für Thompson Creek: II. Quartal 2007.
Ressourcenbericht Davidson (1. Teil der FS): II. Quartal 2007.
Machbarkeitsstudie (“FS“) Davidson: II. Quartal 2007.
Machbarkeitsstudie für Endako (Super-Pit-Mine): voraussichtlich 2. Halbjahr 2007.
Mögliche Beteiligung von Sojitz an TC oder Davidson (würde Cash-Flow im 3-stelligen Millionenbereich bedeuten!!!).
Anm.: Sicher erst, wenn die Machbarkeitsstudie von Davidson vorliegt.
Listing an der NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) in den nächsten Monaten.
Weitere Einschätzungen (Coverage) von Investmenthäusern.


WICHTIGE INFORMATIONSQUELLEN

http://www.bluepearl.ca (Homepage)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/pres_03-27-07/slide1.HTM (Präsentation 27./28.03.07)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/misc/videoplayer.htm
(sehr gute Video-Präsentation!) http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/orion/041707/frameset.p…
(Moly-Konferenz am 17.04.07 – IanMacDonald/Video)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/Factsheet-Feb21-2007.pdf (Ressourcenübersicht)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/pdf/2006AR.pdf
(Jahresbericht 2006 – PDF)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/s/FinancialsAndReports.asp?ReportID=…
(Finanzbericht 2006)
http://www.eao.gov.bc.ca/epic/output/documents/p262/11725280…
(Davidson 02/2007 – Umweltbehörde)

http://de.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=T%5EBLE&p=0&t=23…
(BPM-Chart Canada)
http://www.adanacmoly.com (Moly-Tageschart)
http://www.infomine.com/Investment/HistoricalCharts/ShowChar… (verschiedene Moly-Charts)
http://chart4.onvista.de/i_kl.html?VOL=0&DISPLAY=1&ID_NOTATI… (Währungschart CAD/EUR)
http://www.gcitrading.com/german/converter.htm (Währungsrechner)

http://www.sedar.com (u.a. Vertragstexte)
http://www.canadianinsider.com
(Insider-Käufe/Verkäufe)
http://www.cim.org/committees/stdsapprnov14.pdf (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/molybdenum/… (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://www.kaiserbottomfish.com/s/Expresses.asp?ReportID=96
(Moly-Produktion)
http://www.damstahl.dk/Admin/Public/Download.aspx?file=Files…
(Moly-Bericht)
http://www1.molymines.com/documents/4/11/MOL_About_2Page_200…
(Grafik: Expl.-Vergleich S. 32)
http://www.findarticles.com
(Textsuche)
http://www.molyseek.com
http://www.imoa.info
http://www.sprottmoly.com/
http://www.sprottmoly.com/Sprott_Moly_Investor_Presentation_… (Präsentation Sprott-Moly-Fonds)
http://www.sprottmoly.com/img-4230849-0001.pdf (Top-Ten-Holdings)
http://www.stockwatch.com
http://www.stockhouse.com
http://www.ccnmatthews.com
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/MOLYBDENUM_NEWS_Forum/
http://www.robtv.com
http://www.basemetals.com/search.aspx?search=molybdenum
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7011
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=22727
http://www.cim.org/mainEn.cfm


Hinweis auf terminierte Veranstaltungen/Berichte u. mögl. kursrelevante Ereignisse
10. Mai 2007: Hauptversammlung (HV) von BPM:
Es ist eine Übertragung via Internet geplant.
Achtung – nähere Infos, auch zu weiteren Aktivitäten im Rahmen der HV auf der Homepage abrufen: http://www.bluepearl.ca
Neben der Veröffentlichung des Quartalsberichts für Q1/07 erfolgt die Abstimmung über die angedachte Namensänderung der Gesellschaft in “Thompson Creek Metals“.


Abschließend ein Verleich “Blue Pearl“ – “China Molybdenum“.
Die Zahlen sprechen für sich:


Bitte an alle User:Sollten sich Fehler eingeschlichen oder jemand Ergänzungen haben (z.B. neue Kursziele), bitte ich um Info per Bordmail (BM)!!!


Es gilt wie immer: Dies ist keine Kaufempfehlung.

BG ruhtra

[schnucksche]

This was granted US Patent Status in /05. It is now having a positive impact on Moly demand in Catalyst market side of the equation...KR

Spray Pyrolysis Used to Make Molybdenum Disulfide Catalysts

Left: Scanning electron micrograph of molybdenum disulfide produced by ultrasonic spray pyrolysis. Large pores expose catalytically active edge sites. Right: Transmission electron micrograph of molybdenum disulfide produced by ultrasonic spray pyrolysis. Dark fringes emphasize the molybdenum disulfide crystal edges.

Using a technique called ultrasonic spray pyrolysis, researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign have created an improved catalyst for removing smelly sulfur-containing compounds from gasoline and other fossil fuels. The improved catalyst is a form of molybdenum disulfide, most commonly recognized as the black lubricant used to grease automobiles and machinery.

Molybdenum disulfide is made of long flat layers of molybdenum metal atoms sandwiched above and below by single atomic layers of sulfur. The interactions between sulfur-sulfur planes are weak, so they can easily slide past one another, providing excellent high-temperature lubrication.

Molybdenum disulfide's other important commercial application is as a catalyst used by the petroleum industry to remove ecologically damaging sulfur-containing compounds in gasoline. When burned, these sulfur compounds cause the formation of acid rain.

"The flat planes of molybdenum disulfide that make it a good lubricant also decrease its ability to react with fuels to remove sulfur," said Ken Suslick, the Marvin T. Schmidt Professor of Chemistry at Illinois and a researcher at the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology. "This is because all the reactions necessary for sulfur removal occur on the edges of the long planes, and the bigger the planes, the less relative edge there is."

Using ultrasonic spray pyrolysis, Suslick and graduate student Sara Skrabalak discovered a way to make a highly porous network of molybdenum disulfide that preferentially exposes the catalytic edges. The researchers describe their work in a paper that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, and posted on its Web site. Funding was provided by the National Science Foundation.

Using an ordinary household ultrasonic humidifier, Suslick and Skrabalak spray small droplets of precursor solutions into micron-sized droplets. The droplets are then carried by a gas stream into a furnace, where the solvent evaporates and dissolved substances react to form a product.

This spray-synthesis technique has allowed for the continuous, inexpensive production of spherical powders of varying composition. Research efforts are expanding this technique to the production of nanoparticles and industrially important catalysts.

The new form of molybdenum disulfide is made by spraying droplets of a water solution of ammonium tetrathiomolybdate (a molybdenum disulfide precursor) and colloidal silica (very fine sand). As the droplets are heated in the furnace, water evaporates and a molybdenum disulfide/silica composite is formed. The composite is then treated with hydrofluoric acid, which etches away the silica and leaves a network of molybdenum disulfide behind.

"This treatment leaves pores where the silica used to be and exposes the catalytically active edge of molybdenum disulfide," Suslick said. "Molybdenum disulfide is the standard industrial catalyst for hydrodesulfurization (the removal of sulfur from fuels using hydrogen), but this unique form of molybdenum disulfide has superior catalytic properties when compared to conventionally synthesized molybdenum disulfide."

In addition, the new spray-synthesis route to catalytic materials is simple, easily scaled-up, and can be adapted to other industrial materials.






__._,_.___

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Notes May. 08/07

New Moly Business; Higher Prices
Moly prices continued to climb as traders complained that it was not easy to obtain material. There are few offers from China and Western producers do not have much available for spot. An Austrian mill reportedly paid just under $30.50 per lb for a truckload of briquettes. The mill was looking to buy two trucks. Other bidders for the business had offered briquettes at $31, $31.50 and $31.75. On Monday, a German mill is believed to have bought 15 mt of oxide at $31.This may explain why traders increased their offers so dramatically. Inter- merchant oxide business was concluded in the US at $29.50. There was little spot FeMo business in the US. FeMo prices firmed to $73.50-75.50 per kg in Europe. Some traders said they had sold truckload quantities of FeMo at $76 and slightly higher, but others noted that only small quantity sales were done at $76. The mood among traders is predominantly bullish. They see no reason for prices to come down, and the gap between moly oxide and FeMo is still wide enough to spark buying interest in oxide.

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Abend zusammen!

Hätte Mal eine Frage was das mit den 4-5 Mio. Shortaktien auf sich hat (hier schon öfters gelesen).

Wie funktioniert das mit dem Beleihen von Aktien? Vielleicht kann mir jemand das Funktionprinzip kurz erklären. Welche Auswirkungen soll das auf den Aktienkurs haben? Was würde im Falle einer NAmensänderung funktionieren?? Wo kann man die Anzahl an Shortaktien einsehen oder wie entstehen solche Zahlen.

Für eine verständliche Antwort wäre ich sehr dankbar.

Viele Grüsse!
-----------------------------------------------

Hallo tpird,

Jeweils zur Monatsmitte und zum Monatsende werden die Zahlen der leerverkauften Aktien (an der TSX) veröffentlicht (z.B. bei Stockwatch - ist allerdings kostenpflichtig).
Der Leerverkäufer leiht sich Aktien von seinem Broker, verkauft diese zu dem aktuellen Kurs und hofft, diese zu einem tieferen Kurs wieder zurückkaufen zu können. Da er sich die Aktien nur geliehen hat, muss er diese irgendwann wieder kaufen, da er sie ja zurückgeben muss.
Wenn er die Situation falsch eingeschätzt hat, dann muss er die Aktien teurer zurückkaufen, als er sie verkauft hat. Je weiter der Kurs also steigt, desto weiter gerät er in die Verlustzone. Bei immer weiter steigendem Kurs ist er irgendwann gezwungen zu kaufen, um seinen Verlust nicht noch weiter anwachsen zu lassen.

Wenn Aktien verkauft werden (Verkaufsdruck , insbesondere durch eine größere Anzahl), dann wird tendenziell der Kurs sinken. Der Leerverkauf von Aktien ist also geeignet, den Kurs nach unten zu drücken. Wenn ich also vorher wüsste, dass in Kürze 4,5 Mio Aktien verkauft werden sollen, dann wäre das durchaus ein Grund zum unruhig werden.
Wenn ich allerdings weis, dass 4,5 Mio Aktien bereits in den Markt verkauft worden sind, und irgendwann zurückgekauft werden müssen, dann kann ich erwarten, dass, ausgehend vom derzeitigen Niveau, dadurch der Kurs deutlich steigen wird.

Wenn es zu einer Namensänderung kommt, dann würde vermutlich auch eine neue WKN/ISIN vergeben werden. Das bedeutet dann aber, dass mit dieser neuen Nummer die zuvor leerverkauften Aktien nicht mehr glattgestellt werden können. Der Leerverkäufer müsste also vor der Änderung der Nummer glattstellen. In unserem Fall müssten also diese 4,5 Mio Aktien in einer relativ kurzen Zeitspanne glattgestellt werden.
Nicht absolut klar ist derzeit, ob die Namensänderung tatsächlich zu einer neuen WKN/ISIN führt. Die Meinungen sind diesbezüglich nicht einheitlich.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[fisch29]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.215.021 von ruhtra am 08.05.07 16:35:23

nachdem sprott über ein pp 3 mio aktien zu 12 cad erworben hat ergibt sich nun folgendes:
Shares outstanding: 111,709,158
fully diluted dementsprechend auch höher

bitte in deiner faktenübersicht anpassen

gruß

[Firsteven]

http://www1.molymines.com/View_Price.aspx?id=9&category=9&Dd…

[Firsteven]

From Stainlesssteel.com news commentary today...KR

Comment - With the LME markets closed today we take a moment to reflect on the current state of affairs. We must congratulate those of you who are successfully staying ahead in this bull run. Stainless steel users, on the other hand, are finding their situation more and more like that of the hapless poop-scooper, who must step in or clean up what the bull left behind in its wake. Stainless steel prices continue to soar, and producers from around the world are sending loud signals that they are using less nickel. Until the LME warehouse nickel levels start gaining ground, adding some evidence to these claims, nickel investors have no reason to believe this is anything but a bluff.

We are now seeing reports that chromium is trying to get into the act. India's decision a few months back to add an export tax, and South Africa's clamp down on shipments of chromite ore, has forced China to scramble for supply. This had led to spotty shortages in Europe and North America, which in turn, has led to price increases. Iron ore prices continue to rise, the most recent increase of 9-1/2% taking effect in April. Last week, metals analysts RBC changed an earlier forecast of a 25% drop in price to a 15% increase this year.


And molybdenum prices continue to creep up with a very solid outlook forecast, with a few even suggesting it has the potential to increase in price dramatically.

[betzo]

An Anwendungen für Moly hapert es nicht! Vor allem sind einige dabei, die auch unter Umweltgesichtspunkten interessant sind/werden, und das dürfte in der Zukunft immer wichtiger werden!

Aus dem stockhouse-thread kopiert:
May 9, 2007
By James Finch


coming soon! Print Version
Adobe Reader required click here for free download

The New Molybdenum: Nano Particle Technology for the Future
Guest Commentary by Ken Reser, Pioneering Molybdenum Commentator



Molybdenum concentrate. Courtesy of www.mvschools.org


COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview.com, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Reproduction of any of the material contained in this article, by email, Internet posting, telecopier or other means, is strictly prohibited and may violate copyright law and be subject to legal prosecution. Fair use quotation of 50 words or less accompanied by attribution to StockInterview.com is permitted by recognized and accredited media. Written authorization for any reproduction by others must be obtained in writing from [e-mail], prior to publication.

StockInterview’s Introduction to Ken Reser

Finally, the financial markets have caught on as to how hot molybdenum stocks could get. While we began researching molybdenum about a year ago, and only first publishing in July 2006, molybdenum commentator Ken Reser has practically been the lone voice in the moly wilderness for investors. (We understand there have been several tout sheets hyping molybdenum stocks for nearly as long, but we can’t include those in serious discussions about this metal.)

Now that molybdenum traders have grown more bullish about the metal, we expect molybdenum pricing to continue higher. Ferro moly prices have continued firming up. Some quantity is now selling at US$76 per kg in Europe. One report indicates a recent moly oxide sale at $31/pound.

The emergence of the Sprott Molybdenum Participation Fund (TSX: MLY; OTC Pinks: SMPCF) might only suggest the beginning of stronger institutional interest in primary molybdenum producers and on-the-horizon molybdenum producers – those whose projects could be online by 2010 or sooner.

Ken Reser, Pioneer Molybdenum Commentator, shown at the 2007 PDAC conference in Toronto. Copyright © 2007 StockInterview.com

In March 2005, Ken Reser penned a short editorial entitled, “Molybdenum: The 21st Century & Beyond Metal.”

Mainstream analysts had not really bothered to investigate the numerous uses for molybdenum prior to Ken Reser’s discussion. Since then, molybdenum stocks have had an incredible run. Mainstream media, such as Canada’s Globe & Mail, Dow Jones MarketWatch, The Australian and London’s Daily Telegraph – have featured molybdenum in their articles and named some of the favored companies.

Now that moly’s time has come, many have passed Ken Reser by, aside from our Australian colleagues, FNArena.com. This is often the fate of pioneers who pave the road and point the direction where investors should head. Pioneers are oft forgotten, although streets are later named after them.

That’s not going to be the case if we have any say in this. Ken Reser’s moly repertoire has been extensive. Editorials since his seminal article have discussed moly uses in oil and gas de-sulphurization, catalysts, coal liquefaction, energy pipelines, oil super tankers, drill stem tubing, super alloys, nuclear reactors and turbines among others.

What many thought was fiction Reser preached, more than two years ago, are ideas now at the forefront of mainstream discussions among highly respected analysts. The International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) should be thankful Ken Reser attracted such a high level of investor interest to the moly mining sector over the past two years.

Well, the pioneer is alive and well. Ken Reser has more insights into molybdenum’s future. And we invited Ken to publish them in his commentary below.
Ken Reser’s Commentary

Little attention has been given to a few other aspects of this metal of mystery, in a world growing and changing so rapidly. I have little doubt there are more than a few uses of moly. New discoveries are waiting in the wings.

One case in point is Nano-Particle technology involving molybdenum.

Molybdenum Nano-Particle, courtesy of www2a.cdc.gov

American Elements Corp; The US leading manufacturer of Rare Earth & Advanced Material products had this to say about Nano-Particle Molybdenum:
“Molybdenum Oxide (MoO) Nano-powder or Nano-particles, nano-dots or nano-crystals are ferric and ferrous spherical or faceted high surface area oxide magnetic nanostructure particles. Nano-scale Molybdenum Oxide Particles are typically 20-80 nanometers (nm) with specific surface area (SSA) in the 10 - 50 m 2 /g range and also available in with an average particle size of 100 nm range with a specific surface area of approximately 7- 10 m 2 /g.

"Nano Molybdenum Oxide Particles are also available in ultra high purity, and high purity, transparent, and coated and dispersed forms. . Applications for Molybdenum Oxide Nano-crystals include in electrochemical capacitors, and in coatings, plastics, nano-wire, nano-fiber and textiles and in certain alloy and catalyst applications. Further research is being done for their potential electrical, dielectric, magnetic, optical, imaging, bio-medical and bioscience properties.”

Magnified Structure of Moly Crystal, courtesy of sciencedaily.com

Applications for molybdenum nano-crystals include as a high surface area catalyst and catalyst support and as the catalysts in the synthesis of vertically aligned carbon nano-tubes and in coatings, plastics, nano-wire, nano-fiber and textiles and in certain alloy and catalyst applications.
Super Alloys Created by use of Nano-Particle Reactants


(Courtesy of Materials Research Society: Lab Data)

“Advancements in nano-technology for material processing have spurred the development of super alloys that provide improved protection against corrosion and wear. Nano-scale reactant particles offer unique thermal properties and increased homogeneity that may improve the micro-structural features and macroscopic properties of the final product.

“In this study up to 10-wt % nano-scale molybdenum tri-oxide (MoO3) particles were added to micron scale nickel (Ni) and aluminum (Al). Results show that adding MoO3 increases the flame temperature and produces greater ignition sensitivity produces a more homogeneous microstructure and increases the overall wear resistance of the product.”
Some other uses of nano-particle molybdenum include integrated in paraffin, lubricants, ceramics, nuclear reactor fuel (low enriched uranium), propylene production, high temperature grease, optical fibers, plasma televisions, fuel cells, and much more.

Hollow sphere nano-moly particles now developed show greatly increased effectiveness in the bonding ability of de-sulphurization catalysts. Solar cells are now built on a backing of molybdenum foil. Nano-particle pigment coatings, glass works, dietary and medical products, including artificial limbs.

Weldability of nickel-based superalloys can be approved with ‘weld filler. The invention relates to weld filler which includes these constituents (in wt %): 17.5%-20.0% chromium (Cr), 10.0%-12.0% cobalt (Co), 9.0%-10.5% Molybdenum (Mo) and 0.1%-3.3% titanium.
Hydro De-Sulphurization Catalysts

The unique HDS (Hydro De-Sulphurization) Catalyst aspect of this approach is to use nano-sized MoS2 particles for two reasons:
Nano-sizing increases surface area and therefore the number of "active-edge sites" per unit catalyst volume


Amorphous nano-particles may overcome steric resistance in sulfur-containing large aromatic molecules making the sulfur susceptible to catalytic attack during HDS.
This approach has three aspects:
Characterization of sterically hindered organic sulfur compounds that are typically present in crudes but resistant to conventional HDS catalysts,


Reaction behavior of these sterically hindered sulfur compounds with nano-sized MoS


Formulation and evaluation of supported nano MoS2-based system for ultra deep catalytic HDS of heavy oils and distillates.

Worldwide, many millions of pounds of molybdenum are annually used in refineries. New refineries are now under construction in Asia, and on the drawing board in various other parts of the world.
Fuel Cells and Batteries

By alloying molybdenum with platinum, and carefully controlling the particle size and loading level of the alloy particles, engineers from the E-Tek Division of De Nora, N.A. have developed Pt-based anode catalysts for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells that show excellent resistance to carbon monoxide poisoning.

APS Physics (March 2007) comments on Nano-Structured Molybdenum Oxides for Lithium-Ion Batteries:
“Lithium-ion batteries are the current power sources of choice for portable electronics. Although such batteries are commercially successful, they are not keeping pace with the rapid advances in computing technologies. Also, further improvement of performance and simultaneous reduction in cost as well as material toxicity remain the subject of intensive research.

“Here we report the synthesis and electrochemical performance of a novel molybdenum oxide nano-particle anode that dramatically improves current Li-ion battery technologies. Crystalline MoO nano-particles have been grown by an economical hot-wire chemical-vapor-deposition (HWCVD) technique and a recently developed electrophoresis technique is employed for the fabrication of porous nano-particle anodes. Both cycling stability and rate capability issues are addressed by employing these porous molybdenum oxide films that consist of nano-scale active particles.

“These materials will impact the next generations of rechargeable lithium batteries, not only for applications in consumer electronics, but also for clean energy storage and use in hybrid electric vehicles.”
To review this abstract: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2007.MAR.V42.9
More Nano-Particle Uses

Other new uses include development of new molybdenum- (Nano-Particle) strengthened martensitic steels and other Super Alloys. It is also possible to fabricate large-area porous films of molybdenum oxide nano-particles using a novel electrophoresis deposition technique.

Nano-particle films have led to profound advancement in state-of-the-art electrochromic technologies. MoO films are promising for new lithium ion batteries. There are many newly discovered uses as well for nano particle molybdenum in ION space thrusters, space lubricants, space craft metals and even in space telescopes searching the heavens.

Although molybdenum-based catalysts have already been developed for use in the crude oil refinery process and coal liquefaction, the greatest leaps forward could come from the development of nano particle moly-based Catalysts.

Drilling every deep-depth oil well uses as much as 15% Molybdenum for every pound of drill stem steel. Considering the massive number of pounds (tons actually) of drill stem tubing annually used around the globe, I’m sure we would be amazed when extrapolating the actual amount of molybdenum used in just that one sector.

If you also consider that just one kilometer of typical crude oil pipeline uses approximately 2000 pounds of molybdenum in the steel, and there are globally between 80,000 and 100,000 miles of proposed pipeline projects, one can easily visualize the exponential growth pattern of moly demand in years ahead.

As I have stated in past, now you can see why the world is viewing molybdenum in a different light. It isn’t just the demand from China, India or other rapidly developing nations driving the demand, the price and the different uses.

Molybdenum is truly a metal for and of the twenty-first century. It will play an ever increasingly important part of future base metals demand.
Contact Information:
Ken Reser
Research Consultant to Adanac Molybdenum Corporation
http://www.adanacmoly.com
Email: [e-mail]
Ph: 403-844-2914

Please email your feedback on this article: [e-mail]

[sloopjohn]

Ich habe mir erlaubt, die Ausführungen im kostenlosen "Rohstoff-Daily" von gestern & heute mal zusammenzustellen. Ist zwar für die meisten nichts Neues, aber für den ein oder anderen Neueinsteiger womöglich als grundlegender Überblick dennoch zu gebrauchen.
Alsdann:

Geschichte des Molybdäns
Die Eigenschaften des silbrig glänzenden Metalls, welches in Lagerstätten als Molybdänsulfid vorkommt wurden lange Zeit nicht erkannt. Tatsächlich wurde das verkannte Metall sogar bis ins 18. Jahrhundert hinein mit anderen Metallen, wie Bleiglanz und Graphit verwechselt. Erst 1778 gelang es Carl Wilhelm Scheele das Molybdänsulfid durch Behandlung mit Salpetersäure zu Molybdäntrioxid umzuwandeln. Vier Jahre später stellte Peter Jacob Hjelm durch Reduzierung des Oxids mit Kohle das elementare Molybdän her.
Doch dann verschwand das Metall praktisch wieder in der Versenkung. Erst Ende des 19. Jahrhunderts machten die Mitarbeiter der französischen Firma Schneider und Co. die sensationelle Entdeckung der hervorragenden Legierungseigenschaften des Molybdäns.
Das Aussehen des Metalls macht es nicht umsonst verwechselbar mit dem seltenen Metall Wolfram. Denn auch Molybdän weist, ähnlich wie Wolfram einen hohen Schmelzpunkt und die Eigenschaft der Nichtangreifbarkeit durch reduzierende Säuren auf.
Als während der beiden Weltkriege das Angebot von Wolfram knapp war, erinnerte man sich an den kleinen Bruder und die Nachfrage nach Molybdän stieg sprunghaft an. Ebenso wie die Preise, welche aber nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg wieder dramatisch fielen. In ganz Westeuropa gab es aber auch nur eine Molybdän Mine. Und zwar in Knaben/ Norwegen. Diese Mine wurde 1973 geschlossen.

Vorkommen
Molybdän kommt, wie oben bereits erwähnt, meist als Molybdänsulfid vor. Dieses hat eine Konzentration von etwa 0,3 %. Bislang wurde Molybdän überwiegend als „Abfall“ oder Kop-pelprodukt im Kupferbergbau abgebaut und verhüttet. Doch die Bedeutung des Molybdäns wird in den letzten Jahren immer stärker. Aus diesem Grund entstanden in der jüngsten Vergangenheit immer mehr reine Molybdänproduzenten. Grosse bekannte Vorkommen finden sich im Übrigen in der Mongolei.

Gewinnung
Heute gewinnt man Molybdän nicht mehr wie noch zu Peter Hjelms Zeiten durch die Reduktion mit Kohle aus oxidischen Erzen. Denn hierbei entsteht nur Molybdäncarbid. Heute reichert man das Molybdänsulfid, welches meist stark mit Ganggestein verunreinigt ist zunächst durch Flotation an. Danach wird das Erz durch Röstung bei 700 Grad Celsius oxidiert. Hernach wird das Oxid gereinigt und mit einer Ammoniaklösung ausgelaugt. Nun wird es mit Hilfe einer Säure ausgefällt und schließlich bei 1100 Grad Celsius mit Was-serstoff oder Aluminium zu reinem Molybdän reduziert.
Klingt alles hoch wissenschaftlich, aber lassen Sie sich sagen, dass im Grunde noch immer ein Großteil des heute gewonnenen Molybdäns ganz einfach bei der Kupferraffination abfällt. Für die Stahlveredelung benötigt man allerdings so genanntes Ferromolybdän, welches man durch die Reduktion eines Gemisches aus Molybdänoxiden und Eisenoxiden auf alumino-thermischem Weg herstellt.

Eigenschaften
Molybdän ist ein Übergangsmetall der fünften Periode. Sein Aussehe ist silbrig weiß glänzend ähnlich wie Wolfram. Es weist von allen Elementen der fünften Periode den höchsten Schmelzpunkt auf. Ebenso wie Wolfram wird es auch von reduzierenden Säuren, so genannten Flusssäuren nicht angegriffen. Aufgrund dieser Eigenschaften wird es in großen Mengen bei der Herstellung säurebeständiger Edelstähle und Nickelwerkstoffe genutzt.

Verwendung
Seit der Wolframverknappung im Ersten Weltkrieg ist Molybdän ein Legierungselement zur Steigerung von Festigkeit, Korrosions- und Hitzebeständigkeit bei der Herstellung hochfester Werkstoffe. Die molybdänhaltigen Hochleistungswerkstoffe Hastelloy, Incoloy und Nicrofer sind äußerst beliebt, da sie bestimmte technische Verfahren erst möglich oder ökonomisch sinnvoll machen.
Molybdän dient zu Härtung von Stahl. Überhaupt werden mehr als Zwei Drittel des produzierten Molybdäns als Metalllegierung, wie Ferro Molybdän verwendet. Das Metall wird gerne in der Produktion von Flugzeug – und Raketenteilen als Hitzeschild verwendet. In der Ölverarbeitung kann es als Katalysator zur Schwefelentfernung benutzt werden. Molybdän findet sich aber auch aufgrund seiner leitenden Eigenschaften in elektronischen Bauteilen wieder, so zum Beispiel in TFT Bildschirmen. Als Folie wird das Metall in Halogenglühlampen und Hochdruckgasentladungslampen eingesetzt. In der Medizin findet es Verwendung als Anoden-Targetmaterial in der Röntgendiagnostik und als Spalt – Molybdän in der Nuklearmedizin. Es wird zur Imprägnierung von Stoffen verwendet um diese schwer entflammbar zu machen.
Selbst das unbehandelte Molybdänsulfid findet aufgrund seiner Schichtstruktur Verwendung als ideales Schmiermittel bei erhöhten Temperaturen.

Preisrakete Molybdän
Molybdän, dieses bei vielen Anlegern noch unbekannte Metall, erlebte völlig unbeachtet, im Schatten der „ Mainstream“ Metalle eine unglaubliche Preisentwicklung. Seit 1999 verteuerte sich Molybdän um über 1000 Prozent.
Eine Preisrakete wie sie fast unvergleichlich ist. Nur Uran konnte im selben Zeitraum noch eine bessere Performance erzielen. Tausend Prozent, sagen Sie sich, schade aber kann da noch mehr draus werden? Nun, vieles deutet darauf hin, dass dieser Zug trotz allem noch lange nicht abgefahren ist. Denn die Nachfrage nach dem seltenen Metall steigt weiterhin.

Nachfragewachstum
Die weltweite Nachfrage nach Molybdän liegt gegenwärtig bei rund 400 Millionen Pfund pro Jahr. Das entspricht einem Verbrauchswachstum von 500 Prozent seit den 1960er Jahren.
Der Grund dafür sind natürlich, die bereits erwähnten besonderen Eigenschaften des Metalls, welches es zu einem unverzichtbaren Bestandteil in der Produktion von Hochleistungswerkstoffen macht. Seine Verwendung in der Stahlhärtung und als Legierungsmetall, vor allem aber seine Hitzebeständigkeit lassen es zu einem der wichtigsten Rohstoffe im Flugzeug – und Raketenbau aber auch im Bau von Pipelines und Gebäuden werden.
Keine Frage, insbesondere das Wirtschaftswachstum Asiens und der einsetzende Bauboom haben seit 1999 die Nachfrage und damit auch die massiven Preissteigerungen mit angetrieben.
Das Nachfragewachstum nach Molybdän liegt Schätzungen zufolge bei 4 – 5 % jährlich. Doch alleine der Rohstoffhunger Chinas könnte dafür sorgen, dass sich der Verbrauch in den kommenden 10 Jahren verdoppelt.

Knappes Angebot
Einer Studie des Geologischen Instituts der USA zufolge dürfte die weltweiten bekannten Vorkommen an Molybdän im Jahr 2041 vollständig verbraucht sein. Und das obgleich es gegenwärtig nur eine Handvoll reiner Molybdänproduzenten gibt.
Gegenwärtig werden immer noch rund 65 % der auf dem Weltmarkt verfügbaren Menge an Molybdän, als Nebenprodukt bei der Kupferförderung gewonnen. Doch eine Kupfermine produziert lediglich zwischen 0,01 und 0,03 Prozent an Molybdän. Bedenken Sie wie viel Kupfer die also produzieren müssten, um einen doppelt so hohen Verbrauch zu sättigen. Aufgrund dieses Nachfrage – und Angebotverhältnisses, sowie der gegenwärtig geringen Anzahl reiner Molybdänproduzenten kann man durchaus davon ausgehen, dass sich die Preise verteuern, zumindest aber auf einem stabil hohen Niveau halten dürften.

Sie fragen sich jetzt bestimmt, ob es Möglichkeiten gibt an den steigenden Preisen dieses besonderen Metalls zu partizipieren. Sie sagen sich jetzt bestimmt, nun ich habe gelesen, dass die Nachfrage wächst, das Angebot knapp ist und die Preise steigen, aber kann ich ebenfalls von diesem Wissen profitieren ?
Nun der Rohstoff Daily, ist wie Sie wissen, kein Börsenbrief und darf aus diesem Grund auch keine konkreten Empfehlungen abgeben. Allerdings können Sie eine konkrete Empfehlung, aufgrund derer Sie am Molybdänboom partizipieren können in der kommenden Ausgabe des "Tiger and Dragon" erwarten. Verpassen Sie diese Chance nicht…

(Anmerkung von mir: Das haben wir hier zum Glück auch gar nicht nötig...)

An dieser Stelle deshalb nur noch einige grundlegende Aussagen:
Leider ist Molybdän selbst nicht börsennotiert. (Noch) haben wir leider nicht die Chance anhand von Future Kontrakten Molybdän zu handeln. Aber wer weiß, vielleicht eines Tages einmal. Nichts ist unmöglich, wenn sogar U308 plötzlich handelbar ist.
Ansonsten gibt es natürlich grundsätzlich die Möglichkeit in Minenaktien zu investieren oder in einen ETF.

Grundsätzlich könnten Sie auch in Kupferproduzenten investieren. Doch deren Ertragslage an Molybdän ist wie oben beschrieben leider derartig gering, dass auch steigende Molybdänpreise keine signifikanten Auswirkungen auf deren Geschäfte haben.
Nebenbei : Gegenwärtig notiert Molybdän bei 30 US Dollar pro Pfund. Das entspricht einem Plus von 1000 % seit Anfang 2000.

Quelle: Rohstoff Daily v. 08./09. 05. 2007

[ruhtra]

[ruhtra]

[finanzmatze]

wo muss man da auf der seite draufgehen wenn man um 22 uhr die hauptversammlung sehen will?

[Firsteven]

Hauptversammlung vom 10.05.2007


http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/bluepearl/051007/frames…

[Firsteven]

von Friggiboy:



>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS
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>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS
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>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS
>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS

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>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS

>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS
>>>>> DIESE ZAHLEN LIEGEN 67 PROZENT ÜBER DEN SCHÄTZUNGEN VON UBS

Für Q1 schätze man Gewinn je Aktie auf 0,27 USD. Fakt sind nun 0,45 USD

Nach 0,27 USD in Q1 schätzte UBS 0,37 USD in Q2 und je 0,34 USD in Q3 und Q4



Mein Tipp: Blue Pearl wird bald geschluckt

[Firsteven]

MAY 10, 2007 - 16:15 ET Show Text
Show Financial Table(s)
Show All


Blue Pearl Reports Cash Flow From Operating Activities of US$105.1 Million in Q1 2007

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - May 10, 2007) -

Highlights (all in U.S. dollars):

- Revenues totaled $275.3 million and cash flow from operating activities totaled $105.1 million in the three months ended March 31, 2007.

- Net income was $47.7 million or $0.46 per basic and $0.45 per diluted share. Net income was adversely affected by $29.6 million of inventory purchase price adjustment included in operating expenses.

- Company ended the first quarter with cash balances of $114.5 million after paying $64.3 million, including a prepayment premium, to discharge the Second Lien Credit Facility on March 15, 2007. As at March 31, 2007, the principal outstanding on the First Lien Credit Facility was $319.3 million, down from $340 million on December 31, 2006.

- Molybdenum production costs for output from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines averaged $5.63 per pound while realized prices on molybdenum sales averaged $25.57 per pound.

- Conference call and webcast for analysts and investors is scheduled for May 11 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (TSX:BLE)(TSX:BLE.WT.A)(FRANKFURT:A6R), one of the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers, today announced financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2007 prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Blue Pearl's revenues totaled $275.3 million in the first quarter of 2007. Contributing to revenues was a significant reduction of the Company's product inventory. No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in the first quarter of 2006 as it was in the development stage.

Operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 totaled $161.8 million. Included in operating expenses was an acquisition expense of $29.6 million related to the inventory portion of the Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC) purchase price adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of molybdenum in inventory on the October 26, 2006 acquisition date and this inventory was deemed to be purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an uplift of inventory costs of $98.5 million over the original book value. Of this, $68.9 million was charged to operating expenses in 2006 and the remaining $29.6 million was charged to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory was sold. Blue Pearl had no operating expenses in the first quarter of 2006.

General and administrative expenses totaled $3.1 million in the latest quarter, compared with $0.4 million in the first quarter of 2006. Exploration and development expenses, which were mainly related to the Davidson Project, were $1.9 million in the first quarter of 2007 versus $2.3 million a year earlier.

Net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $47.7 million or $0.46 per basic and $0.45 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.5 million or $0.06 per basic and diluted share a year earlier. The per-share figures are based on a weighted-average number of shares outstanding of 103,250,000 (basic) and 105,395,000 (diluted) in the first quarter of 2007 and 44,671,000 (basic and diluted) a year earlier. As at March 31, 2007, there were 108,165,000 shares outstanding.

Cash generated by operating activities totaled $105.1 million in the first quarter of 2007, compared with cash used of $3.7 million in the same period in 2006.

Cash balances were $114.5 million as at March 31, 2007 versus $98.1 million as at December 31, 2006.

During the first quarter of 2007, the Company paid $64.3 million, including a prepayment premium, to fully discharge its Second Lien Credit Facility. The Company also made payments to reduce its First Lien Credit Facility to $319.3 million on March 31, 2007 from $340 million on December 31, 2006.

In the first quarter of 2007, the Company produced 5.43 million pounds of molybdenum at an average production cost of $5.63 per pound. The Company's U.S. operations produced 3.84 million pounds at an average cost of $4.52 per pound. The Company's 75% share of the Canadian operations was 1.59 million pounds at an average cost of $8.31 per pound. The amounts produced reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the Company. The average costs reflect production costs, including roasting costs, for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.

Outlook

Blue Pearl took advantage of positive market conditions in the first quarter of 2007 by selling more molybdenum product than was produced and reducing inventory. In future quarters, with product inventory at a lower level, the Company's ability to take advantage of strong demand for molybdenum will largely depend on the production from its mines.

While the Company's production outlook for the year remains unchanged, production in the second quarter of 2007 from the Thompson Creek Mine is expected to be lower than the first quarter due to the pushback and initial stripping required to open a new phase of the mine. During this period, the mine will produce much of its molybdenum from an ore stock pile that has lower-grade molybdenum.

However, the impact from lower production on the Company's second-quarter revenues may be offset at least in part by the increase in molybdenum prices that began in the latter part of the first quarter. The quoted price for molybdenum oxide rose to about $28 per pound on average in March from an approximate average $25 per pound in January and February. However, because of the normal one-month pricing lag on the Company's sales, Blue Pearl did not begin to receive the higher prices evident in March until its April deliveries. The price increase that occurred in March has been generally sustained, with the market price for molybdenum oxide widely quoted in the range of $28 to $29 per pound on average in April and early May. The Company's realized prices on its sales may be higher or lower than the quoted market prices published by pricing services.

As previously announced, the Company is expecting to produce 21 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 from its existing Thompson Creek and Endako mines and is planning to increase production from these mines to 27 million pounds in 2008 and 29 million pounds in 2009. This excludes any potential production from Blue Pearl's Davidson Project, which is Canada's largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit. Davidson represents an opportunity for organic growth. A feasibility study of the Davidson Project is currently being conducted by Hatch Ltd. and is expected to be completed in the next two months.

The Company's production growth profile and the strong sales prices anticipated in the next two or three years because of favourable supply and demand fundamentals are expected to produce strong cash flow for the Company. The Company believes that its operations and access to capital markets are sufficient to meet its ongoing obligations and capital requirements.

In April 2007, the Company announced an updated measured and indicated molybdenum resource estimate for its Endako Mine as a first step in the process of re-evaluating the potential of its existing properties. Both the Thompson Creek and Endako mines are developing new mine plans based on a reevaluation of mineral reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of $10 per pound and updated costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and $3.50 per pound at Endako. The new plans are expected to increase reserves and mine life at both operations when they are completed in 2007.

Additional information on the Company's financial position is available in Blue Pearl's Financial Statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis for the three months ended March 31, 2007, which will be filed with SEDAR (www.sedar.com) and posted on the Company's website (www.bluepearl.ca).

Conference call and webcast

Blue Pearl will hold a conference call for analysts and investors to discuss its first-quarter 2007 financial results on May 11, 2007 at 10 a.m. (Eastern).

Ian McDonald, Executive Chairman, Kevin Loughrey, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Derek Price, Chief Financial Officer, will be available to answer questions during the call.

To participate in the call, please dial 416-695-6623 or 1-877-323-2090 about five minutes prior to the start of the call.

A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at www.ccnmatthews.com and www.bluepearl.ca.

An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-695-5275 or 1-888-509-0081 (Passcode 644207) from 12:00 p.m. on May 11 to 11:59 p.m. on May 18. An archived recording of the webcast will also be available at Blue Pearl's website.



The following are the Company's consolidated financial statements, excluding notes, for the three months ended March 31, 2007.



Consolidated Balance Sheets(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)
March 31 December 31 2007 2006AssetsCurrent assets Cash and cash equivalents $ 114,512 $ 98,059 Accounts receivable 112,780 84,476 Product inventory 70,257 131,269 Material and supplies inventory 25,700 25,498 Prepaid expenses 2,368 3,015 Future income and mining taxes 372 468 ------------ ------------- 325,989 342,785Property, plant and equipment 469,269 480,187Deferred stripping costs 6,853 -Reclamation deposits 23,283 23,005Restricted cash 8,806 8,081Future income and mining taxes 25,965 20,902Goodwill 50,882 46,322 ------------ ------------- $ 911,047 $ 921,282 ------------ ------------- ------------ -------------
LiabilitiesCurrent liabilities Accounts payable and accrued liabilities $ 43,334 $ 38,794 Income taxes payable 41,587 29,407 Current portion of long-term debt 74,291 73,758 Future income and mining taxes 4,601 17,237 ------------ ------------- 163,813 159,196Long-term debt 245,118 324,048Asset retirement obligations 26,609 25,992Sales contract liability 24,210 11,421Severance and retention 8,191 8,008Future income and mining taxes 164,919 168,566 ------------ -------------
632,860 697,231 ------------ -------------
Shareholders' EquityCommon shares 216,144 210,857Warrants 35,115 35,445Contributed surplus 16,884 14,953Retained earnings (deficit) 20,156 (27,579)Accumulated other comprehensive loss (10,112) (9,625) ------------ ------------- 278,187 224,051 ------------ ------------- $ 911,047 $ 921,282 ------------ ------------- ------------ -------------
Consolidated Statements of Income (Loss)Three Months Ended March 31, 2007 and 2006(US dollars and share amounts in thousands, except per share amounts - Unaudited) 2007 2006Revenues Molybdenum sales $ 268,116 $ - Tolling and calcining 7,232 - ---------- --------- 275,348 - ---------- ---------Cost of sales Operating expenses 161,768 - Selling and marketing 1,600 - Depreciation and depletion 16,082 - Accretion 436 - ---------- --------- 179,886 - ---------- ---------
Income from mining operations 95,462 -
Other (income) expenses General and administrative 3,108 404 Exploration and development 1,867 2,252 Interest and finance fees 15,394 - Debt prepayment premium 2,474 - Unrealized loss on derivative instruments 6,507 - Stock-based compensation 2,618 496 Interest income (1,900) (45) Other 370 (6) ---------- --------- 30,438 3,101 ---------- ---------
Income (loss) before taxes 65,024 (3,101)
Income and mining taxes (recoverable) Current 37,849 - Future (20,560) (620) ---------- --------- 17,289 (620) ---------- ---------
Net income (loss) $ 47,735 $ (2,481) ---------- --------- ---------- ---------
Net income (loss) per share Basic $ 0.46 $ (0.06) ---------- --------- ---------- ---------
Diluted $ 0.45 $ (0.06) ---------- --------- ---------- ---------
Consolidated Statements of Cash FlowsThree Months Ended March 31, 2007 and 2006(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)
2007 2006Operating ActivitiesNet income (loss) $ 47,735 $ (2,481)Items not affecting cash Depreciation and depletion 16,082 - Accretion 436 - Amortization of finance fees 4,784 - Unrealized loss on derivative instruments 6,507 - Stock-based compensation 2,618 496 Future income and mining taxes (20,560) (620) Gain on sale of marketable securities - (6)Change in non cash working capital 47,457 (1,061) ---------- ---------
Cash generated by (used in) operating activities 105,059 (3,672) ---------- ---------
Investing ActivitiesProperty, plant and equipment (2,602) -Deferred stripping costs (6,853) -Restricted cash (725) (44)Reclamation deposits (233) -Proceeds from disposition of marketable securities - 26 ---------- --------- Cash used in investing activities (10,413) (18) ---------- ---------
Financing Activities
Equity issues 5,158 2,135Long-term debt repayments (83,181) - ---------- ---------
Cash (used in) generated by financing activities (78,023) 2,135 ---------- ---------
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash (170) (94) ---------- ---------
Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 16,453 (1,649)
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period 98,059 6,915 ---------- ---------
Cash and cash equivalents, end of period $ 114,512 $ 5,266 ---------- --------- ---------- ---------
Consolidated Statements of Retained Earnings (Deficit)Three Months Ended March 31, 2007 and 2006(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)
2007 2006
Balance, beginning of period $ (27,579) $ (6,936)Net income (loss) 47,735 (2,481) ---------- ---------Balance, end of period $ 20,156 $ (9,417) ---------- --------- ---------- ---------
Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss)Three Months Ended March 31, 2007 and 2006(US dollars in thousands - Unaudited)
2007 2006
Net income (loss) $ 47,735 $ (2,481)Other comprehensive loss Foreign currency translation adjustment (487) (101) ---------- ---------
Comprehensive income (loss) $ 47,248 $ (2,582) ---------- --------- ---------- ---------

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl shucks $47.73-million (U.S.) profit in Q1


2007-05-10 16:44 ET - News Release

Mr. Ian McDonald reports

BLUE PEARL REPORTS CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF US$105.1 MILLION IN Q1 2007

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. has provided its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2007, prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Blue Pearl's revenues totalled $275.3-million in the first quarter of 2007. Contributing to revenues was a significant reduction of the company's product inventory. No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in the first quarter of 2006 as it was in the development stage.

Operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 totalled $161.8-million. Included in operating expenses was an acquisition expense of $29.6-million related to the inventory portion of the Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC) purchase price adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of molybdenum in inventory on the Oct. 26, 2006, acquisition date and this inventory was deemed to be purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an uplift of inventory costs of $98.5-million over the original book value. Of this, $68.9-million was charged to operating expenses in 2006 and the remaining $29.6-million was charged to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory was sold. Blue Pearl had no operating expenses in the first quarter of 2006.

General and administrative expenses totalled $3.1-million in the latest quarter, compared with $400,000 in the first quarter of 2006. Exploration and development expenses, which were mainly related to the Davidson project, were $1.9-million in the first quarter of 2007 versus $2.3-million a year earlier.

Net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $47.7-million or 46 cents per basic and 45 cents per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.5-million or six cents per basic and diluted share a year earlier. The per-share figures are based on a weighted average number of shares outstanding of 103.25 million (basic) and 105,395,000 (diluted) in the first quarter of 2007 and 44,671,000 (basic and diluted) a year earlier. As at March 31, 2007, there were 108,165,000 shares outstanding.

Cash generated by operating activities totalled $105.1-million in the first quarter of 2007, compared with cash used of $3.7-million in the same period in 2006.

Cash balances were $114.5-million as at March 31, 2007, versus $98.1-million as at Dec. 31, 2006.

During the first quarter of 2007, the company paid $64.3-million, including a prepayment premium, to fully discharge its second lien credit facility. The company also made payments to reduce its first lien credit facility to $319.3-million on March 31, 2007, from $340-million on Dec. 31, 2006.

In the first quarter of 2007, the company produced 5.43 million pounds of molybdenum at an average production cost of $5.63 per pound. The company's U.S. operations produced 3.84 million pounds at an average cost of $4.52 per pound. The company's 75-per-cent share of the Canadian operations was 1.59 million pounds at an average cost of $8.31 per pound. The amounts produced reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the company. The average costs reflect production costs, including roasting costs, for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.

Outlook

Blue Pearl took advantage of positive market conditions in the first quarter of 2007 by selling more molybdenum product than was produced and reducing inventory. In future quarters, with product inventory at a lower level, the company's ability to take advantage of strong demand for molybdenum will largely depend on the production from its mines.

While the company's production outlook for the year remains unchanged, production in the second quarter of 2007 from the Thompson Creek Mine is expected to be lower than the first quarter due to the pushback and initial stripping required to open a new phase of the mine. During this period, the mine will produce much of its molybdenum from an ore stock pile that has lower grade molybdenum.

However, the impact from lower production on the company's second quarter revenues may be offset at least in part by the increase in molybdenum prices that began in the latter part of the first quarter. The quoted price for molybdenum oxide rose to about $28 per pound on average in March from an approximate average $25 per pound in January and February. However, because of the normal one-month pricing lag on the company's sales, Blue Pearl did not begin to receive the higher prices evident in March until its April deliveries. The price increase that occurred in March has been generally sustained, with the market price for molybdenum oxide widely quoted in the range of $28 to $29 per pound on average in April and early May. The company's realized prices on its sales may be higher or lower than the quoted market prices published by pricing services.

As previously announced, the company is expecting to produce 21 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 from its existing Thompson Creek and Endako mines and is planning to increase production from these mines to 27 million pounds in 2008 and 29 million pounds in 2009. This excludes any potential production from Blue Pearl's Davidson project, which is Canada's largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit. Davidson represents an opportunity for organic growth. A feasibility study of the Davidson project is currently being conducted by Hatch Ltd. and is expected to be completed in the next two months.

The company's production growth profile and the strong sales prices anticipated in the next two or three years because of favourable supply and demand fundamentals are expected to produce strong cash flow for the company. The company believes that its operations and access to capital markets are sufficient to meet its continuing obligations and capital requirements.

In April, 2007, the company announced an updated measured and indicated molybdenum resource estimate for its Endako mine as a first step in the process of re-evaluating the potential of its existing properties. Both the Thompson Creek and Endako mines are developing new mine plans based on a re-evaluation of mineral reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of $10 per pound and updated costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and $3.50 per pound at Endako. The new plans are expected to increase reserves and mine life at both operations when they are completed in 2007.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
Blue Pearl Reports $47.7 Million First-Quarter Profit (Update1)

By Rob Delaney

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., a metal producer that was the best performer on Canada's main stock index, reported a first-quarter profit of $47.7 million that was driven by the rising price of molybdenum, a copper byproduct.

Net income of 45 cents a share in the quarter compares with a net loss of $2.5 million, or 6 cents, a year earlier, Toronto- based Blue Pearl said today in a statement. Sales in the quarter were $275 million. The company didn't have revenue in the year- earlier period.

Blue Pearl bought Idaho-based Thompson Creek Metals Co. for $700 million last year to increase reserves of molybdenum, used to make high-strength, corrosion-resistant steel for pipelines and other equipment in the oil and gas industry. Blue Pearl reaffirmed its March forecast that it will produce 21 million pounds of the metal this year, 27 million pounds next year and 28 million pounds in 2009.

``Blue Pearl took advantage of positive market conditions in the first quarter of 2007 by selling more molybdenum product than was produced and reducing inventory,'' the company said in the statement.

The company produced 3.84 million pounds at Thompson Creek and 1.59 million pounds at its Endako mine in British Columbia in the first quarter, according to the statement.

Blue Pearl shares have increased more than fivefold over the past year, making it the top-performing component of the S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index in the past 12 months. Sales were driven by a rise in global molybdenum prices, which increased 25 percent to $28.75 a pound in the past year, according to Metal Bulletin magazine.

Blue Pearl released its earnings report after the close of the Toronto Stock Exchange, where its shares fell 39 cents, or 2.2 percent, to C$17.40.

(Blue Pearl scheduled a conference call for tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. New York time at [phone]. For a replay of the call, dial [phone], pass code 644207)

To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Delaney in Toronto at [e-mail] .

[schnucksche]

Blue Pearl shucks $47.73-million (U.S.) profit in Q1


2007-05-10 16:44 ET - News Release

Mr. Ian McDonald reports

BLUE PEARL REPORTS CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES OF US$105.1 MILLION IN Q1 2007

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. has provided its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2007, prepared in accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles. All dollar amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Blue Pearl's revenues totalled $275.3-million in the first quarter of 2007. Contributing to revenues was a significant reduction of the company's product inventory. No revenues were earned by Blue Pearl in the first quarter of 2006 as it was in the development stage.

Operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 totalled $161.8-million. Included in operating expenses was an acquisition expense of $29.6-million related to the inventory portion of the Thompson Creek Metals Company (TCMC) purchase price adjustment. TCMC held 7.8 million pounds of molybdenum in inventory on the Oct. 26, 2006, acquisition date and this inventory was deemed to be purchased by Blue Pearl, for accounting purposes, at fair value, resulting in an uplift of inventory costs of $98.5-million over the original book value. Of this, $68.9-million was charged to operating expenses in 2006 and the remaining $29.6-million was charged to operating expenses in the first quarter of 2007 as the related inventory was sold. Blue Pearl had no operating expenses in the first quarter of 2006.

General and administrative expenses totalled $3.1-million in the latest quarter, compared with $400,000 in the first quarter of 2006. Exploration and development expenses, which were mainly related to the Davidson project, were $1.9-million in the first quarter of 2007 versus $2.3-million a year earlier.

Net income for the first quarter of 2007 was $47.7-million or 46 cents per basic and 45 cents per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $2.5-million or six cents per basic and diluted share a year earlier. The per-share figures are based on a weighted average number of shares outstanding of 103.25 million (basic) and 105,395,000 (diluted) in the first quarter of 2007 and 44,671,000 (basic and diluted) a year earlier. As at March 31, 2007, there were 108,165,000 shares outstanding.

Cash generated by operating activities totalled $105.1-million in the first quarter of 2007, compared with cash used of $3.7-million in the same period in 2006.

Cash balances were $114.5-million as at March 31, 2007, versus $98.1-million as at Dec. 31, 2006.

During the first quarter of 2007, the company paid $64.3-million, including a prepayment premium, to fully discharge its second lien credit facility. The company also made payments to reduce its first lien credit facility to $319.3-million on March 31, 2007, from $340-million on Dec. 31, 2006.

In the first quarter of 2007, the company produced 5.43 million pounds of molybdenum at an average production cost of $5.63 per pound. The company's U.S. operations produced 3.84 million pounds at an average cost of $4.52 per pound. The company's 75-per-cent share of the Canadian operations was 1.59 million pounds at an average cost of $8.31 per pound. The amounts produced reflect molybdenum produced at the Thompson Creek and Endako mines but do not include molybdenum purchased from third parties, roasted and sold by the company. The average costs reflect production costs, including roasting costs, for molybdenum from the Thompson Creek and Endako mines only.

Outlook

Blue Pearl took advantage of positive market conditions in the first quarter of 2007 by selling more molybdenum product than was produced and reducing inventory. In future quarters, with product inventory at a lower level, the company's ability to take advantage of strong demand for molybdenum will largely depend on the production from its mines.

While the company's production outlook for the year remains unchanged, production in the second quarter of 2007 from the Thompson Creek Mine is expected to be lower than the first quarter due to the pushback and initial stripping required to open a new phase of the mine. During this period, the mine will produce much of its molybdenum from an ore stock pile that has lower grade molybdenum.

However, the impact from lower production on the company's second quarter revenues may be offset at least in part by the increase in molybdenum prices that began in the latter part of the first quarter. The quoted price for molybdenum oxide rose to about $28 per pound on average in March from an approximate average $25 per pound in January and February. However, because of the normal one-month pricing lag on the company's sales, Blue Pearl did not begin to receive the higher prices evident in March until its April deliveries. The price increase that occurred in March has been generally sustained, with the market price for molybdenum oxide widely quoted in the range of $28 to $29 per pound on average in April and early May. The company's realized prices on its sales may be higher or lower than the quoted market prices published by pricing services.

As previously announced, the company is expecting to produce 21 million pounds of molybdenum in 2007 from its existing Thompson Creek and Endako mines and is planning to increase production from these mines to 27 million pounds in 2008 and 29 million pounds in 2009. This excludes any potential production from Blue Pearl's Davidson project, which is Canada's largest undeveloped molybdenum deposit. Davidson represents an opportunity for organic growth. A feasibility study of the Davidson project is currently being conducted by Hatch Ltd. and is expected to be completed in the next two months.

The company's production growth profile and the strong sales prices anticipated in the next two or three years because of favourable supply and demand fundamentals are expected to produce strong cash flow for the company. The company believes that its operations and access to capital markets are sufficient to meet its continuing obligations and capital requirements.

In April, 2007, the company announced an updated measured and indicated molybdenum resource estimate for its Endako mine as a first step in the process of re-evaluating the potential of its existing properties. Both the Thompson Creek and Endako mines are developing new mine plans based on a re-evaluation of mineral reserves assuming a long-term molybdenum price of $10 per pound and updated costs. Previous mine plans had assumed a long-term price of $5 per pound at Thompson Creek and $3.50 per pound at Endako. The new plans are expected to increase reserves and mine life at both operations when they are completed in 2007.

Conference call and webcast

Blue Pearl will hold a conference call for analysts and investors to discuss its first quarter 2007 financial results on May 11, 2007, at 10 a.m. (Eastern).

Ian McDonald, executive chairman, Kevin Loughrey, president and chief executive officer, and Derek Price, chief financial officer, will be available to answer questions during the call.

To participate in the call, please dial 416-695-6623 or 1-877-323-2090 about five minutes prior to the start of the call.

A live audio webcast of the conference call will be available at the company's website.

An archived recording of the call will be available at 416-695-5275 or 1-888-509-0081 (passcode 644207) from 12 p.m. on May 11 to 11:59 p.m. on May 18. An archived recording of the webcast will also be available at Blue Pearl's website.


CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (LOSS)
Three months ended March 31
(in thousands of U.S. dollars)
2007 2006
Revenues
Molybdenum sales $268,116 $-
Tolling and calcining 7,232 -
---------- ---------
275,348 -
---------- ---------
Cost of sales
Operating expenses 161,768 -
Selling and marketing 1,600 -
Depreciation and depletion 16,082 -
Accretion 436 -
---------- ---------
179,886 -
---------- ---------
Income from mining operations 95,462 -
Other (income) expenses
General and administrative 3,108 404
Exploration and development 1,867 2,252
Interest and finance fees 15,394 -
Debt prepayment premium 2,474 -
Unrealized loss on derivative instruments 6,507 -
Stock-based compensation 2,618 496
Interest income (1,900) (45)
Other 370 (6)
---------- ---------
30,438 3,101
---------- ---------
Income (loss) before taxes 65,024 (3,101)
Income and mining taxes (recoverable)
Current 37,849 -
Future (20,560) (620)
---------- ---------
17,289 (620)
---------- ---------
Net income (loss) $47,735 $(2,481)
========== =========
Net income (loss) per share
Basic $0.46 $(0.06)
Diluted $0.45 $(0.06)


We seek Safe Harbor.

[Firsteven]

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd
Blue Pearl Mining, Duvernay, Linamar: Canadian Equity Preview

By Eric Martin

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose shares may have unusual price changes in Canadian markets. This preview includes news that broke after markets closed. Symbols are in parentheses after company names and prices are from the last close.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index fell 42.03, or 0.3 percent, to 13853.13.

Blue Pearl Mining Ltd. (BLE CN): The metal producer that was the best performer on Canada's main stock index in the past year reported a first-quarter profit of $47.7 million, or 45 cents a share. A year earlier, the company had a net loss of $2.5 million, or 6 cents, Toronto-based Blue Pearl said in a statement released by CCNMatthews.

Blue Pearl produces molybdenum, a copper byproduct used to strengthen steel. The shares fell 39 cents, or 2.2 percent, to C$17.40.

Duvernay Oil Corp. (DDV CN): The oil and gas producer said in a statement that first-quarter profit fell to 19 cents a share from 23 cents a year earlier. The shares slipped 30 cents to C$40.25.

Linamar Corp. (LNR CN): The auto-parts maker said in a statement that first-quarter profit increased to 38 cents a share from 36 a year earlier. The shares added 11 cents to C$17.05.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at [e-mail]

Last Updated: May 11, 2007 00:02 EDT

[schnucksche]

#111845 von schnucksche 11.05.07 18:12:28 Beitrag Nr.: 29.273.490
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben | BLUE PEARL MINING


Da heute im Thread wieder einige User auf die Shortpositionen angespielt haben und manche schon lichterloh brennende Shorties vor ihrem geistigen Auge gesehen haben .... und leider auch RSR diesbezüglich falsche Infos gestreut hat:


Bei einer Änderung des Namens von BPM zu TCM ist es nach kanadischem Recht nicht nötig, die Shortpositionen zu decken. Die Shorts werden sozusagen einfach umgeschrieben.


Ich bitte Euch, dies zu verinnerlichen und den Usern, die dieses Postings (wie die anderen vorher in dieser Frage auch) nicht lesen (können), entsprechend näher zu bringen, denn ansonsten werdne wieder Erwartungshaltungen geschürt, die dann enttäuschtw erden.


Ach ja, TH bei 18,43 $

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Notes May 11/07

Moly Prices On Another Roll
Moly prices moved up another notch, with oxide sales reported in the US at $30 per lb and in Europe at $31. Consumers said they were having difficulty securing oxide for June and that traders had increased their offer prices to $32. "Oxide is incredibly tight," said one consumer. "The Chinese are not offering oxide and Western producers have no spot material." Every time it appears that the unusually large gap between oxide and FeMo is starting to narrow because of an increase in oxide prices, FeMo prices inch up higher. Last week, FeMo prices in Europe rose to $76-77 per kg. Chinese FeMo suppliers hiked their prices to $74-75 from $72-73. Some traders believe that the Chinese are sitting on unsold material, which will be released onto the market in June. Others, however, doubt that much stockpiling is taking place. "I think the Chinese are shipping a lot of material to Korea and other places in the Far East where they are obtaining good prices. There is no incentive to ship to Europe," said a trader.

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

ich denke es ist wieder einmal an der Zeit eine neue Prognose für die nächsten ein bis drei Jahre aufzustellen und dabei die vorhandenen Informationen von dem Gesamtmarktumfeld und von Thompson Creek Metals einfließen zu lassen.

Wie immer ist das Szenario meine Meinung und soll keine Kaufempfehlung darstellen.

Das von mir aufgezeigte Szenario beruht auf dem momentan für mich absehbaren Umfeld und kann natürlich durch Horrorszenarien zunichte gemacht werden. Ein eventuelles Schrumpfen der US-Wirtschaft und ein Wassereinbruch bei einer TC Mine ist für mich kein Horrorszenario und würde lediglich bremsend wirken.

Horrorszenarien wären weltweite Terroranschläge mit Atombomben sowie global wirkende Katastrophen. Meine Sichtweise ist auf die Wirtschaft ausgerichtet und nicht auf die Umwelt. Deshalb ist die von den Marketingabteilungen der Weltwirtschaft und Politik aufgebaute Klimakatastrophe natürlich keine Katastrophe, sondern ein wirtschaftlicher Segen.

Ein paar Worte zur Weltwirtschaft:
Das Wachstumstempo wird sich, getrieben durch Asien und sonstige Schwellenländer, im Beobachtungszeitraum weiter beschleunigen und zu einer Verknappung der meisten Rohstoffe führen. Das Welthandelswachstum wird im Bereich von 10% sein. Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum wird steigend im Bereich von 6% bis 8% liegen. Sogar die USA wird durch die notwendigen und überwiegend privaten Investitionen in ihre Infrastruktur, wie z.B. die notwendigen Umstrukturierungen und Investitionen im Energiebereich, und durch das enorme Weltwirtschaftswachstum etwas zum allgemeinen Wirtschaftsboom beitragen können und auch müssen.

Europa wird analog der USA wachsen. Bedingt durch die hohe Basis wird der wirtschaftliche Abstand zu den Schwellenländern sich nur langsam verringern. Dies deutet auf weitere Boomjahre nach dem Beobachtungszeitraum von 3 Jahren hin. Diese Einschätzung ist wichtig, um bei einem Invest in Aktien den richtigen Ausstiegszeitpunkt zu definieren. Gerade dieser Aspekt muss permanent beobachtet und immer wieder neu bewertet werden.

Geht man für das Jahr 2010 von einer Rezession der Weltwirtschaft aus, dann sollte man in 2008 aussteigen, da dort die Spitze der Aktienbewertung sein wird. Danach wird es dann mit dem gesamten Aktienmarkt abwärts gehen.

Aber zum Trost: Den optimalen Zeitpunkt für die Gewinnmitnahme werden wir sowieso nicht erreichen können.

Nun kommen wir zu den Aussichten für den Rohstoff Molybdäner Strukturwandel im Stahlmarkt ist im vollen Gange und wird bedingt durch das enorme Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft und im Stahlbereich noch beschleunigt. Hier ist der Bericht auf der Thompson Creek Homepage zu empfehlen.

Abgeleitet durch diesen Strukturwandel hin zu den hochwertigen und mit höheren Prozentsätzen von Molybdän versehenen Stählen wird der Molybdänverbrauch sich in den nächsten Jahren weiter beschleunigen.

Schon 2006 wuchs der Molybdänverbrauch um 6%. Ich gehe in den nächsten Jahren von einem weiter steigenden Wachstumstempo für Molybdänprodukte aus. Zumal in allen Industriebereichen mit dem Stoff neue viel versprechende Produkte konzipiert werden. Für 2009 leite ich daraus einen Bedarf von weit über 500 Mio. IB aus.

Selbst wenn alle für 2009 angekündigten neuen Produktionen in Betrieb gehen sollten, bleibt das Angebot weiter knapp. Ich folge hier den eher konservativen Einschätzung von Ian McDonald und gehe für die nächsten Jahre von einem fast ausgeglichen Molybdänmarkt aus.

Nicht umsonst ist der Frühindikator Eric Sprott in dem Markt investiert. Dies gibt mir, gerade auch in Konsolidierungsphasen, die notwendige Sicherheit um an dem getätigten Invest und den Kurszielen festzuhalten.

Den Molybdänpreis erwarte ich daher in 2008 und 2009 über der 50$ Marke. Da ich in der Mitte von 2008 einen großen Teil meiner hoffendlichen Gewinne realisieren will, kalkuliere ich bei meiner anschließenden Bewertung für TCM den KGV für 2009 auf der Basis von 50$ Gewinn pro IB.

Die TCM Aktie wird zu diesem Zeitpunkt mit den 2009 Erwartungen bewertet sein.

Zu TCM:
Die Mengenziele der einzelnen Jahre sind konservativ angesetzt und werden daher deutlich übertroffen werden.

Da ich auf den Kurs des Jahres 2008 fixiert bin, interessiert mich das Ergebnis der Jahre 2007 und 2008 eher nicht. Ab Mitte 2008 wird der Kurs durch die Erwartungen für 2009 bestimmt werden.

Trotzdem werden natürlich die jetzt kommenden Ereignisse das Ergebnis für 2009 bestimmen. Daher eine kurze Einschätzung der von mir erwarteten Ereignisse.

Der erwartete Super-Pitplan für Endako wird in 2007 und 2008 umgesetzt werden. Dadurch wird der Mengenausstoß bei Endako in 2008 und 2009 deutlich erhöht werden.

Der neue Abbauplan für TC wird umgesetzt und auch hier wird der Mengenausstoß deutlich erhöht werden.

Die Machbarkeitsstudie für Davidson wird in den nächsten Monaten kommen und umgesetzt werden. Durch den Abbau in den High-Grad Zonen wird bei gleicher Tonnage (2.000 Tonnen Gestein pro Tag) ein deutlich höherer Abbau als 5 Mio. IB in 2009 erfolgen können. Ich denke, dass gerade die Optimierung des Abbauplanes die Offenlegung der Machbarkeitsstudie verzögert. Eine Verdoppelung der gewonnenen Menge sollte Anhand der 2006er Bohrergebnisse für 2009 möglich sein.

Die Genehmigung des Abbaues wird für Anfang 2008 erwartet. Die erwarteten Auflagen werden den Starttermin der Produktion, wie von TCM geplant, Ende 2008 ermöglichen. Eine positive Überraschung hinsichtlich der Terminierung ist hier möglich.

Sojitz wird sich mit 25% an Davidson beteiligen.

Es werden in 2007 und 2008 mindestens zwei weitere Produzenten übernommen werden.
Die Übernahmen werden durch Kapitalerhöhungen, aus dem Cash und aus eventuellen neuen Krediten finanziert werden.

Die Ergebnisse in 2007 und 2008 werden durch diese Ereignisse natürlich massiv beeinflusst und sind daher nur schwer kalkulierbar.

Das Ergebnis für 2009 kalkuliere ich aus den von mir erwarteten Abbaumengen der drei bekannten Minen und zu 50$ Gewinn pro IB bei einer Aktienanzahl von 111 Mio.

45 Mio. IB zu 50$ = 2.250 Mio. USD
- sonstige Kosten / steuerlich anrechenbarer Invest 500 Mio. USD = 1.750 Mio. USD
- Steuer 35% von 613 Mio. USD = 1.137 Mio. USD Gewinn

Gewinn = 1.137 Mio. USD
Pro Aktie = 10,24 USD = 11,37 CAD

Kursziel bei KGV 10:
11,37 CAD * 10 = 113,70 CAD = 75,80 Euro.

+ 20% erwarteter Effekt aus zwei Übernahmen

75,80 * 120% = 90,96 Euro.

Die Gegenrechnung des Wertes über die Ressourcen/Reservenbetrachtung liegt bei einem 50$ Preis ebenfalls in diesem Bereich.

Nachbetrachtung:
Zu meiner ersten Analyse ist dies eine Verdoppelung meines damals ausgegebenen Kurszieles. Dies ergibt sich durch die wesentlich höheren Abbaumengen, da ich Ende 2006 von einem Auslaufen der Endakoproduktion ausgegangen bin.

Anstatt des Auslaufens wird nun aber die Produktionsmenge deutlich erhöht werden.

Das Kursziel wird dabei massiv durch den Molybdänpreis beeinflusst.

Zum momentanen Preis von 30 USD pro IB ergibt die Berechnungen für 2009 ein Kursziel in Euro von 32,50.

Bei einem Preis von 25 USD ergibt sich ein Kursziel von 21 Euro.

Bei einem Molybdänpreis um die 20 USD wäre die Aktie fair bewertet.

Meine persönliche Bewertung:
Durch die oben erstellte Berechnung bin ich sehr, sehr bullisch für die Aktie eingestellt. Dies erklärt auch die Höhe meiner Investition in die TCM Aktie.

Ob die Aktie jemals in die Regionen steigen wird, hängt von dem Eintreffen der Prognosen ab. Bisher wurde ich bei den Fundamentaldaten überwiegend positiv überrascht. Daher hat sich meine persönliche Erwartungshaltung für die nächsten 12 bis 18 Monate auch sehr deutlich erhöht.

Es ist mir peinlich, aber meine Prognose ist noch nicht einmal eine Bestcaseprognose, sondern die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintreffens ist bei der momentanen weltwirtschaftlichen Lage und den handelnden Personen sehr Groß.

Mit Sicherheit werden die Prognosen nicht genauso, wie hier beschrieben eintreffen, sondern die Abweichungen werden sich saldieren. Gerade die von mir eingeplanten 500 Mio. USD für sonstige Kosten und dem anrechenbaren Invest geben mir zusätzliche Sicherheit, dass der Kurs in diese Regionen steigen kann.

Warnungen:
Es empfiehlt sich, wie bei jedem anderen Invest auch, die Lage der Firma immer wieder neu zu bewerten.

Ist man der Meinung, dass wichtige beeinflussenden Faktoren in den negativen Bereich drehen, dann muss man aus dem Invest aussteigen.

Genauso, wie sich die fundamentale Datenlage permanent verbessert hat, so kann sich die Datenlage natürlich auch verschlechtern.

Der Zeitraum April 2000 bis April 2003 sollte jedem eine Warnung sein.

Weitere Kursentwicklung:
Die durch kapitalkräftige Zocker ausgelöste Januarkonsolidierung kann zu jeder Zeit wieder erfolgen. Zumal die Initiatoren des Spieles wahrscheinlich im Kursbereich über 18 CAD ausgestiegen sind.

Da ich Long bin und solche Konsolidierungen in jedem Langfristchart von steigenden Aktien zu finden sind, ist das Spiel zwar nervend, aber es gehört nun mal zu dem Geschäft dazu.

Da nicht absehbar ist, wann genau das Spiel erfolgreich betrieben wird, bleibe ich in diesen Phasen investiert. Platt gesagt, ich bin einfach nur zu blöde diese Phasen frühzeitig zu erkennen.

Es kostet mehr Geld einen Teil eines Hype zu verpassen, als man durch das zwischenzeitliche Gezocke gewinnen kann (Siehe Anstieg von 7, 11 CAD auf über 18 CAD). Aber jeder so, wie er es mag, oder man gehört zu dem Großzockerclan dazu. Dann hat man die 6 gewürfelt.

Wann genau der Markt in dem erhofften Sinne reagieren wird, mag ich nicht zu sagen. Je nach dem, wie das Quartalsergebnis aufbereitet und in den Markt gegeben wird, kann es in der nächsten Woche beginnen. Auch die nicht zu überhörenden Übernahmegerüchte können den Kurs weiter antreiben.

Da der Molybdänpreis weiter steigt, ist nicht mit einer längeren Konsolidierung zu rechnen.

Die täglich zu erwartenden Nachrichten geben dem Kurs zusätzlich Sicherheit und sollten zu mindestens stützend wirken.

Kurz gesagt: Ist mir eigentlich auch egal. Mich interessieren nur die fundamentalen Daten.

Das TCM-Management hat auf der HV das Kurzfristziel durch den Preis für eine Übernahme auf 30 bis 40 CAD gesetzt. Mal sehen, ob die Rechnung in den nächsten Wochen aufgeht.

Chance/Risiko:
Das Verhältnis hat sich trotz des bisherigen Kursanstieges
noch weiter verbessert und ist in meinen Augen einmalig Gut.

Bitte hiermit wie immer um Sachdiskussionen.

therefore

[ruhtra]

Stand: 13. Mai 2007



Symbole für “Thompson Creek Metals“ = TCM u. TCM.WT
Homepage: http://www.tcrk.ca/s/Home.asp

QUARTALSBERICHT Q1/2007 vom 10.05.2007

Gesamtumsatz = 275,3 Mio USD (Vorquartal 150,8 Mio / 26.10.-31.12.06)
Umsatz pro Tag = 3,06 Mio USD (Vorquartal 2,25 Mio / 26.10.-31.12.06)

Cash-Flow gesamt = 105,1 Mio USD (Vorquartal 75,4 Mio / 26.10.-31.12.06)
Cash-Flow pro Tag = 1,167 Mio USD (Vorquartal 1,13 Mio)
Cashbestand am 31.03.2007 = 114,5 Mio USD

Gewinn je Aktie = 0,46 USD (Vorabschätzungen: UBS 0,29 u. Yahoo 0,31 USD)
Gewinn je Aktie (voll verwässert) = 0,45 USD
(Diese Zahlen liegen 67 % über den Schätzungen von UBS!!!)

Aktueller Schuldenstand = 302 Mio USD (Vorquartal 320 Mio)
Anm.: Nach Auskunft der IR sind die 36 Mio CAD aus der PP von Sprott direkt an die Banken zur Reduzierung der Schulden weitergeleitet worden, sodaß der Schuldenstand im April bereits um weitere 36 Mio CAD (!) auf ca. 287 Mio USD reduziert worden ist.

Marge zwischen Produktionskosten u. Verkaufspreis:
Produktionskosten im Durchschnitt bei 5,63 USD pro Pfund.
Verkäufe im Durchschnitt bei 25,57 USD pro Pfund!!!

Hinweis: Nähere Details in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis“:
http://www.tcrk.ca/i/pdf/2007Q1MDA.pdf


Zum Thema “Übernahmen“ auf der Telefonkonferenz am 11.05.2007:
Übernahmen seitens TCM sind nicht auszuschließen! Ian MacDonald sinngemäß: „Wir schauen nicht nach Explorern. 750 Mio $ zum Minenaufbau ist nicht im Interesse der Shareholder (sehr aktionärsorientierte Aussage)!“
Zu einer möglichen ´feindlichen Übernahme´ sagte Ian M. sinngemäß: „Wenn ein gutes Angebot reinkommt, dann wird es auch angenommen. Egal ob aus Canada oder sonst wo. 30 CAD wäre ein Angebot, aber eigentlich wäre 40 CAD ein fairer Wert. Aber es wird ja auch von den Aktionären abgestimmt, ob sie die Übernahme wollen oder nicht!“

“Spekulationsfrist“ und “Zertifikate“:
- Die Namensänderung sowie ein Aktiensplit (so er evtl. ´mal kommt) wirken sich nicht auf die Spekulationsfrist aus, da die Rechtseinheit des Unternehmens davon unberührt bleibt!
- Auch bei den Zertifikaten von ML und SG ändert sich nichts!



Folgender Text soll einen Überblick über die aktuellen Fakten zu TCM geben. Ich habe die Details aus Beiträgen von verschiedenen Usern im Bewertungs- u. Hauptthread übernommen:

LIEGENSCHAFTEN / PRODUKTIONSSTÄTTEN



1. ENDAKO (förd. Tagebau-Mine u. Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
- 75% gehören TCM u. 25% Sojitz, einer großen japanischen Handelsgesellschaft.
- Sojitz ist gleichzeitig Verkaufsagent für Japan und Teile von Asien.
- Endako verarbeitet 15 Mio Pfund Moly pro Jahr (Röstkapazität).
Nach dem vorliegenden Ressourcennachweis vom 16. April 2007 können wir, je nach Cut-off-Grad, von einer Rohstoffmenge im Boden zwischen 282 u. 463 Mio Pfund Moly, sowie einer Minenlaufzeit zwischen 21 u. 35 Jahren ausgehen. Durch die Erstellung einer Studie (Zusammenfassung der 3 getrennten Abbaugebiete zu einem riesigen Super-Pit u. Erhöhung der Produktion um etwa 60%) im Laufe des Jahres 2007 soll die Möglichkeit nachgewiesen werden, dass diese Rohstoffmenge wirtschaftlich abgebaut werden kann.
Die Machbarkeitsstudie für Endako erwarten wir im III. Quartal 2007 !!!

2. THOMPSON CREEK (fördernde Tagebau-Mine)
- TC ist das “Juwel des Unternehmens“!!!
- Die TC-Mine ist weltweit die zweitgrößte Moly-Tagebau-Mine!
- Die derzeit nachgewiesenen Rohstoffe reichen für weiteren Abbau von 10 Jahren.
(Neuer Ressourcenbericht (Update) für TC wird im III. Quartal 2007 erwartet!!!)
- TC erzielte 2005 Erlöse in Höhe von 845 Mio USD u. 2006 in Höhe von 805 Mio USD (jeweils bis Sept. d.J.).
- Durchschnittliche Produktionskosten: etwa 4,50 USD pro Pfund Moly.
- Um diese Mine heute so aufzubauen, wäre ein Kapital von mehr als 1 Milliarde USD erforderlich.

Rohstoffreserven u. Rohstoffressourcen von Thompson-Creek:
170 Mio Pfund Reserven (wirtschaftlich abbaubar)
370 Mio Pfund Ressourcen (nachgewiesen)
420 Mio Pfund vermutet (inferred)
Der neue Ressourcenbericht mit höheren Werten dürfte bald vorliegen.
Es werden täglich 30.000 t abgebaut.
Für 2008 ist eine drastische Erhöhung auf 50.000 Tonnen pro Tag vorgesehen.

3. DAVIDSON-PROJEKT (geplante Untertage-Mine)
- Größtes Molybdänprojekt der Welt, welches noch nicht in Produktion ist.
- Größte Moly-Lagerstätte in Kanada.
- Aus dem hochgradigen Teil der Lagerstätte sollen 2000 t pro Tag abgebaut und per LKW nach Endako zur Weiterverarbeitung geschafft werden.
- In Davidson wird Moly mit einer Konzentration von 0,36 - 0,38% abgebaut werden.
Dies ist weltweit die höchste Konzentration. Die zweitgrößte Konzentration hat derzeit die Henderson-Mine mit 0,28%.

Topgehalte vom Davidson-Projekt
03.02.2006: 48.8 metres grading 0.46% MoS2
28.02.2006: 0.47% MoS2 over 39.6 metres
12.04.2006: 12.2-metre intersection grading 0.797% MoS2.
15.06.2006:
122-metre intersection grading 0.670% MoS2
15.3 metres grading 1.920% MoS2 (weltspitze)
15.2 metres grading 1.262% MoS2
137.2-metre intercept grading 0.521% MoS2

4. LANGELOTH - METALLURGICAL FACILITY (Verarbeitungsanlage/Röster)
- Langeloth verarbeitet 35 Mio Pfund Moly pro Jahr (Röstkapazität).
- Die halbe Kapazität wird für die eigene Minenproduktion verwendet. Mit der anderen Hälfte wird für andere Minengesellschaften (Fremdröstung) geröstet.
- Zusätzlich kauft TCM am Markt Moly zur Weiterverarbeitung auf u. führt Moly-Recycling durch.
- Diese zusätzliche Auslastung hilft, die eigenen Produktionskosten pro Pfund zu senken.
- Langeloth produziert das weltweit beste Ferro-Molybdän.
- Das beste Molybdän (1/3 der Weltproduktion) kommt von reinen Moly-Herstellern (also nicht als Abfallprodukt der Kupfer-Produktion).

GMP-ANALYSE vom 13.02.2007 (wesentliche Aussagen)

Gewinn (Ebitda) 2006e = 91 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2007e = 357 Mio USD
Gewinn (Ebitda) 2008e = 520 Mio USD

Netto-Schulden = 312 Mio USD (aktuell = 302 Mio USD)
- Es wird erwartet, dass BPM (TCM) nach derzeitigem Stand die Schulden bis 2009 komplett zurückzahlen wird.
- Es ist signifikantes Potenzial zur Steigerung des Cash-Flow u.d. Finanzkraft vorhanden.
- Diese Beurteilung wird auch unterstützt durch die Tatsache, dass dem früheren Eigentümer von Thompson Creek bereits die Summe von 61,5 Mio Dollar aus den Einnahmen der letzten 9 Wochen des Jahres 2006 bezahlt werden konnten !!!
- Gestützt auf unsere Vorhersage des Molybdänpreises erwarten wir, dass BPM (TCM) mehr als genügend Geld erwirtschaftet, um die insgesamt 125 Mio Dollar Kontingentzahlung zu bestreiten, und leicht die vorhandenen Schulden in Höhe von netto 312 Mio Dollar bis 2009 zu tilgen. Schuldentilgung lt. Bedingungen eigentlich erst bis 2011 bzw. 2013!!!.
- Weiterhin erwarten wir, dass BPM (TCM) die Kosten in Höhe von ca. 55 Mio $ für die Errichtung der Davidson-Mine aus den lfd. Einnahmen bezahlen kann.
- Mit der Aussicht, aus der Ausübung von Warrants weitere 200 Mio $ einzunehmen, könnten die Schulden bereits vor Ende 2009 abbezahlt werden.[/b]

VERSCHIEDENES

- TCM ist der größte Molybdän-Produzent in den USA.
- Gesamt-Röstkapazität: 50 Mio Pfund / Jahr (15 Mio Endako - 35 Mio Langeloth).
- TCM produziert 5 % u. verarbeitet 9 % der Weltnachfrage!!!
- TCM kann aufgrund der hohen Moly-Qualität einen Aufschlag von 2-3% auf den Marktpreis verlangen.
- TCM liefert Moly in folgende Regionen:
Japan: ca. 33% (Sojitz) - Nordamerika: ca. 50% -Europa: fast den Rest - Indien: minimal.
(kein Moly nach China)

Gesamtreserven u. Gesamtressourcen von TCM:
Vor den neuen Schätzungen zu Endako vom 16. April 2007 betrug die
+ Gesamtressourcenmenge 743 Mio Pfund Moly (ohne vermutete (inferred) Mengen),
+ Gesamtreservenmenge 272 Mio Pfund,
zusammen also 1015 Mio Pfund.
Der derzeit aktuelle Stand beträgt, je nach Cut-Off-Grad, zusammen 1114 bis 1295 Mio Pfund und wird mit den erwarteten Studien für Davidson u. Thompson Creek noch einmal stark ausgeweitet werden.

Die Molyförderung ist wie folgt geplant:2007: 21 Mio Pfund
2008: 27 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 2 Mio aus Davidson)
2009: 29 Mio Pfund (plus ca. 5 Mio aus Davidson)

Es ist auch zu berücksichtigen, dass ca. 8 Mio Pfund bei der Übernahme von TC verkaufsfertig auf Lager lagen. Der Verkauf wird mehr als einen Ausgleich für den Produktionsrückgang von 26 auf 21 Mio Pfund in 2007 darstellen!

Die UBS, eine der weltweit größten Banken, gewährte BPM seinerzeit zur Übernahme von TC einen Kredit über knapp 500 Mio CAD. Anm.: 30 UBS-Mitarbeiter haben den Deal und den Kredit bearbeitet und geprüft!.

Sprott (kanad. Investmenthaus) hält 15% an TCM - Größter Aktionär!!!
Sprott hat im April einen Moly-Fonds mit einem Grundkapital von 200 Mio CAD aufgelegt (überzeichnet um 125 Mio CAD!!!), der an der TSX gelistet ist.
+ Investiert wird bis zu 50% in das Metall u. in Aktien von Moly-Explorern u. Produzenten.
+ Als Berater fungiert TCM!
+ Kauf u. Verkauf des Moly erfolgt durch TCM!!!
+ TCM belegt Platz 1 bei den Top-Ten-Holdings des Sprott-Fonds.
Anm.: Sprotts Uran-Fonds (aufgelegt 2005) hält 4,2 Mio Pfund U380. Durchschnittlicher Kaufpreis lag bei 32 USD – aktuell notiert Uran bei ca. 120 USD!

Mit Stand 15.02.2007 befanden sich 17.6% aller TCM-Aktien in den Händen von 13 institutionellen Anlegern – der aktuelle Stand dürfte erheblich höher liegen!!!
Das Management hält 4% (unter Einbeziehung der Warrants 6%) der TCM-Aktien.

Kein politisches Risiko: Projekte/Minen ausschließlich in USA/Kanada.

KREDITTILGUNG
Die Höhe der Kredittilgung an UBS ist wie folgt vorgesehen:
Tilgung 2007: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2008: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2009: 75 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2010: 50 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2011: 25 Mio US-Dollar
Tilgung 2012: 25 Mio US-Dollar
- Die Tilgung erfolgt jeweils vierteljährlich zu gleichen Raten.
- Somit sind in 2007 jeweils vierteljährl. 18,75 Mio US-Dollar an Tilgung zu bezahlen.
- Blue Pearl (jetzt TCM) zahlte im März 2007 62 Mio Dollar Kreditschulden für die Thompson-Creek-Übernahme vorzeitig zurück!!!

BESITZ bzw. BESITZANTEILE
Endako-Mine = 75 %
Thomspon-Creek-Mine = 100 %
Langeloth (Verarbeitungsanlage) = 100 %
Davidson-Vorkommen = 100 %

RAHMENDATEN
Shares = 111.749.000 (lt. Homepage TCM)
Shares (voll verwässert) = 143.336.000 (lt. Homepage TCM)
Warrants = 24.644.000 (lt. Homepage TCM)
Share options: 6.943.000 (lt. Homepage TCM)
Arbeitskapital = 162 Mio $
Schulden = 302 Mio $ (von ursprünglich 402 Mio in 10/2006!!!)
Marktkapitalisierung (MK) = derzeit ca. 1.8 Milliarden CAD
Reserven/Ressourcen (Annahme Sprott) = ca. 25 Mrd. USD
KGV = im niedrigen einstelligen Bereich
Gewinn = täglich fast 1,2 Mio USD beim dztg. Molypreis

KURSZIELE (Stand 13.05.2007)
UBS Securities Canada = 21,50 CAD
GMP Securities = 19,85 CAD
Sprott = 28,00 CAD (bei einem Moly-Preis über 20 USD)
Paradigm Capital = 19,00 CAD
Desjardins Securities = 21.40 CAD
BMO = 21.40 CAD

Erwarteter “NEWSFLOW“

Ressourcenbericht (Update) DAVIDSON (1. Teil der FS): II. Quartal 2007.

Machbarkeitsstudie / “FS“ DAVIDSON: II. Quartal 2007.

Ressourcenbericht (Update) THOMPSON CREEK: III. Quartal 2007.

Machbarkeitsstudie / „FS“ ENDAKO (Super-Pit-Mine): 2. Halbjahr 2007.
(Anm.: Umwandlung der im April kommunizierten Ressourcen in Reserven)

Listing an der NYSE (New York Stock Exchange): IV. Quartal 2007.

Mögliche Beteiligung von Sojitz an TC oder Davidson (würde Cash-Flow im 3-stelligen Millionenbereich bedeuten!!!)
Anm.: Sicher erst, wenn die Machbarkeitsstudie von Davidson vorliegt.

Weitere Einschätzungen (Coverage) von Investmenthäusern.


WICHTIGE INFORMATIONSQUELLEN

http://www.tcrk.ca/s/Home.asp (Homepage)
http://www.bluepearl.ca/i/misc/videoplayer.htm
(sehr gute Video-Präsentation!)
http://www.adanacmoly.com (Moly-Chart)
http://chart4.onvista.de/i_kl.html?VOL=0&DISPLAY=1&ID_NOTATI… (Währungschart CAD/EUR)
http://www.sprottmoly.com/
http://www.sprottmoly.com/img-4230849-0001.pdf (Top-Ten-Holdings)
http://www.canadianinsider.com (Insider-Käufe/Verkäufe)
http://www.cim.org/committees/stdsapprnov14.pdf (Begriffe/Standarts)
http://www.findarticles.com (Textsuche)
http://www.robtv.com
http://www.molyseek.com
http://www.imoa.info
http://www.stockwatch.com
http://www.stockhouse.com
http://www.basemetals.com/search.aspx?search=molybdenum
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7011
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=22727
http://www.cim.org/mainEn.cfm


Terminierte Veranstaltungen/Berichte u. mögl. kursrelevante Ereignisse
entfällt


Vergleich “Thompson Creek Metals“ – “China Molybdenum“ Molybdenum“:
Die Zahlen sprechen für sich!


Bitte an alle User: Sollten sich Fehler eingeschlichen oder jemand Ergänzungen haben (z.B. neue Kursziele), bitte ich um Info per Bordmail (BM)!!!


Es gilt wie immer: Dies ist keine Kaufempfehlung.

BG ruhtra

[sloopjohn]

Hotstock Trading v. 13.05.2007
Marc Nitzsche, Chefredakteur

Geht der "Molybdän-Höhenflug" weiter?

Ein "Ten Bagger" wie aus dem Bilderbuch

.......Molybdän ist ein "Ten Bagger" (frei übersetzt: "Verzehnfacher") wie aus dem Bilderbuch. Seit 1999 verteuerte sich der Rohstoff mit dem schwer aussprechlichen Namen über 1.000 Prozent. Damit ist einmal mehr bewiesen, dass die besten Investmentchancen häufig abseits des "Mainstreams" lauern.
Aber um was handelt es sich bei Molybdän eigentlich genau? Nun, der "Zungenbrecher-Rohstoff" ist ein Metall mit einer beeindruckenden Hitzebeständigkeit. Verwendet wird Molybdän vor allem zur Härtung von Stahl und zur Herstellung von Metall-Legierungen. Im Flugzeug- und Raketenbau aber auch für die Konstruktion von Pipelines und Gebäuden ist das "Überflieger-Metall" auf Grund seiner einzigartigen Eigenschaften annähernd unverzichtbar.

Alles schön und gut! Doch wie viel Aufwärtspotenzial hat Molybdän nach der gewaltigen "Rallye" eigentlich noch. Meiner Meinung nach eine ganze Menge! Wenngleich ich eine nochmalige Kursverzehnfachung zwar für eher unwahrscheinlich halte, dürfte der "Zug" keineswegs bereits abgefahren sein. Zumindest spricht die fundamentale Situation für tendenziell weiter anziehende Notierungen.

Ungebremstes Nachfrage-Wachstum

Die Nachfrage wächst nicht zuletzt wegen der mit den sprichwörtlichen "Siebenmeilen-Stiefeln" voranschreitenden Industrialisierung gerade in vielen asiatischen Schwellenländern kontinuierlich. Gegenwärtig liegt der globale Bedarf bei gut 400 Millionen Pfund pro Jahr. Damit hat sich der Verbrauch seit den 1960er Jahren um rund 500 Prozent erhöht.

Für die kommenden Jahre erwarten Experten ein Nachfrage-Wachstum zwischen vier und fünf Prozent per anno. Ich erachte diese Schätzung für reichlich konservativ. Meiner Meinung nach stehen die Chancen angesichts des nicht enden wollenden "Bau-Booms" insbesondere in China und Indien ziemlich gut, dass sich der Molybdän-Bedarf in der kommenden Dekade noch einmal verdoppelt.

Überaus knappes Angebot

Demgegenüber stellt sich die Angebotsseite eher mager dar: Bislang gibt es auf unserem Planeten kaum reine Molybdän-Lagerstätten. Gegenwärtig wird Molybdän hauptsächlich als „Abfallprodukt“ bei der Kupfer-Förderung gewonnen. Rund 65 Prozent der auf dem Weltmarkt verfügbaren Menge stammen aus Kupferminen. Allerdings fallen bei der Kupfer-Erzeugung lediglich zwischen 0,01 und 0,03 Prozent Molybdän an. Somit können Sie sich leicht ausrechnen, welche unvorstellbaren Mengen an Kupfer abgebaut werden müssten, um auf diese Weise die stark wachsende Molybdän-Nachfrage auch nur ansatzweise zu befriedigen.

Unternehmen, die sich ausschließlich mit der Erschließung von Molybdän-Vorkommen befassen, lassen sich zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt fast an einer Hand abzählen. Zwar hat der preisliche "Höhenflug" des begehrten Metalls zuletzt dafür gesorgt, dass immer mehr Explorer in diesem Bereich tätig werden. Bis aber neues substanzielles Molybdän-Angebot auf den Markt dringt, wird es sicherlich noch Jahre - vielleicht sogar Jahrzehnte - dauern.
Zudem ist das Legierungsmetall nicht in unbegrenzter Menge verfügbar. Laut einer Studie des Geologischen Instituts der USA dürften die bisher bekannten weltweiten Molybdän-Reserven bereits im Jahr 2041 vollständig aufgebraucht sein. Dieser Umstand sollte den Preis - ähnlich wie bei Rohöl - langfristig auf einem hohen Niveau halten.

Eingeschränkte Investment-Möglichkeiten

Da Molybdän ähnlich wie Uran selbst nicht börsennotiert ist, können Anleger nicht über Zertifikate auf den Molybdän-Preis unmittelbar von weiter zu erwartenden Preissteigerungen profitieren. Somit bleibt lediglich der „Umweg“ über Aktien von Unternehmen, die in diesem Segment tätig sind.
Dass diese Möglichkeit aber mitunter ganz ausgezeichnet funktioniert, konnte man in den letzten Monaten beobachten. Die Aktien-Kurse ausgewählter Molybdän-Explorer sind in den letzten Monaten regelrecht explodiert. Und trotz des aktuell erhöhten Niveaus, erscheinen einige Papiere für risikobewusste Anleger längerfristig durchaus weiter aussichtsreich. Spekulative Investoren sollten sich den Molybdän-Sektor daher ruhig einmal etwas genauer ansehen.

Blue Pearl Mining im "Höhenrausch"

Mit etwas Glück entdecken Sie dabei vielleicht sogar eine zweite Blue Pearl Mining. In den letzten neun Monaten hat sich der "Pioneer des Molybdän-Hypes" mehr als verfünffacht, seit Anfang 2006 sogar verzehnfacht. Kein Wunder also, dass der Wert bereits seit längerem in aller Munde ist und in den einschlägigen Internet-Börsenforen stets einen der vordersten Plätze in der Kategorie "meist diskutierte Aktien" belegt.

Ich weiß ehrlich gesagt gar nicht mehr, wie viele E-Mail-Anfragen ich in den vergangenen Wochen zu diesem Papier beantwortet habe. Es waren auf jeden Fall etliche. Und alle Anfragen drehten sich nur um ein Thema: Kann man die Aktie jetzt noch kaufen? Nicht zuletzt deshalb haben wir uns entschlossen, Blue Pearl Mining in dieser Ausgabe des "Hotstock-Trading" einmal etwas näher zu beleuchten, um den diesbezüglichen "Wissensdurst" unserer Leser "en gros" zu stillen.

Blue Pearl Mining jetzt noch ein Kauf?

Ich muss gestehen, dass ich zu Rohstoff-Explorern ein etwas zwiespältiges Verhältnis habe. So ganz wohl ist mir nämlich bei dem Gedanken nicht, mein sauer verdientes Geld in Unternehmen zu investieren, die häufig weder Umsätze geschweige denn Gewinne erzielen.

Natürlich lassen sich mit derartigen "High-Risk-Investment-Manövern" mitunter gigantische Gewinne erzielen, wenn die Suche nach seltenen Rohstoffen von Erfolg gekrönt ist und die Produktion anläuft. Aber - und darauf will ich Sie an dieser Stelle ausdrücklich hinweisen - nicht selten kommt es bei solchen Aktien zu Kursrückgängen, die im schlimmsten Fall sogar in einem Totalverlust des eingesetzten Kapitals enden können. Ich persönlich bevorzuge daher eher Gesellschaften, die nicht ganz am Anfang ihrer unternehmerischen Tätigkeit stehen und möglichst bereits operativ profitabel arbeiten. Klar: Für die Anteilscheine dieser Firmen muss ich unter Bewertungsgesichtspunkten etwas "tiefer in die Tasche" greifen. Aber die höhere Sicherheit und Berechenbarkeit ist mir das auf jeden Fall wert.

Eine Aktie, die in dieser Hinsicht meinen Ansprüchen durchaus gerecht wird, ist das Papier von Blue Pearl Mining. Der kanadische Konzern hat in den zurückliegenden zwölf Monaten eine bemerkenswerte Entwicklung vollzogen und ist über den Status der typischen "Pommes-Bude" längst hinausgewachsen.

Genialer "Übernahme-Coup"

Der für mich entscheidende "Coup" war die Übernahme von Thompson Creek Metals für etwa 575 Millionen US-Dollar. Das mag sich im ersten Moment zwar nicht gerade wenig anhören, tatsächlich jedoch war der Kauf fast schon ein echtes "Schnäppchen". Denn der weltweit größte nicht börsennotierte Molybdän-Produzent ist eine echte "Cash-Cow". In den Geschäftsjahren 2005 und 2006 erwirtschaftete der Konzern jeweils einen Gewinn von knapp 350 Millionen US-Dollar. Mit anderen Worten: Blue Pearl Mining hat nicht einmal den zweifachen Jahresgewinn für die Akquirierung der hoch profitablen Mine bezahlt. Das nenne ich mal einen wirklich guten "Deal", zumal man damit zugleich eine der größten Erz-Verarbeitungsanlagen in Nordamerika erworben hat.

Mit dieser Übernahme hat Blue Pearl Mining nun auch die finanziellen Möglichkeiten, das Davidson Projekt in Britsh Columbia (Kanada) mittelfristig zur Produktion zu führen. Und spätestens dann "spielen" die Kanadier in der allerersten "Liga" der Molybdän-Erzeuger mit.

Schier unerschöpfliche Vorkommen

Immerhin verfügt die Davidson-Liegenschaft gegenwärtig über Molybdän-Ressourcen von 288 Millionen Pounds. In diesem Zusammenhang möchte ich erwähnen, dass es dabei nicht um bloßes "Wunschdenken" handelt, sondern die genannte Menge nach dem international anerkannten NI 43-101-Standard nachgewiesen ist. Die Höhe der "wahrscheinlichen" Ressourcen beläuft sich auf 588 Millionen amerikanische Pfund. Eine "Machbarkeitsstudie" wird in den nächsten Wochen erwartet.

Nicht von "schlechten Eltern" sind aber auch die beiden zugekauften Projekte Thompson Creek und die Endako-Mine. Auf dem Gebiet Thompson Creek lagern 169 Millionen Pfund Molybdän-Reserven und 370,6 Millionen Pfund Ressourcen (Anmerkung: Als Reserven werden Vorkommen bezeichnet, die nach dem gegenwärtigen Stand der Technik wirtschaftlich abbaubar sind).

In der Endako-Mine befinden sich Reserven in einer Größenordnung von 103,1 Millionen Pfund und Ressourcen von 80,4 Millionen Pfund. Kürzlich wurde die Ressourcen-Schätzung sogar auf sagenhafte 463,9 Millionen Pfund angehoben. Allerdings ist diese Menge noch nicht nach NI 43-101 bestätigt, so dass ich die Heraufstufung mit etwas Vorsicht genieße.

Aber unabhängig davon reichen die definitiv vorhandenen Reserven bei einer jährlichen Fördermenge von 25 bis 28 Millionen Pfund noch rund zehn Jahre. Kurz gesagt: Das Molybdän wird Blue Pearl Mining mit Sicherheit nicht so schnell ausgehen. Und in Anbetracht des kontinuierlich steigenden Molybdän-Preises und der permanenten technischen Weiterentwicklung bin ich recht zuversichtlich, dass bereits in absehbarer Zeit ein Teil der Ressourcen als Reserven klassifiziert werden kann.

Solide Quartalszahlen präsentiert

Kürzlich präsentierten die Kanadier ihre Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal des laufenden 2007er Geschäftsjahres. An diesen gab es nicht einmal für mich etwas auszusetzen: Der Umsatz lag bei 275,3 Millionen US-Dollar, der Nettogewinn bei 47,7 Millionen US-Dollar und der Cash Flow bei 105,1 Millionen US-Dollar.

Auf das Gesamtjahr hochgerechnet ergibt sich nach heutigem Stand damit ein Netto-Ertrag von gut 190 Millionen US-Dollar. Allerdings kann ich mir gut vorstellen, dass es schlussendlich eventuell sogar noch der eine oder andere US-Dollar mehr sein könnte. Denn Blue Pearl Mining ist gerade im Begriff die Molybdän-Produktion in Thompson Creek und der Endako-Mine kräftig hochzufahren.
Für dieses Jahr plant man den Abbau von 21 Millionen Pfund. 2008 sollen es dann bereits 27 Millionen Pfund und 2009 sogar 29 Millionen Pfund sein. Ausgehend von diesen Planungen halte ich es durchaus für möglich, dass die Förder-Prognose für dieses Jahr übertroffen wird und der Gewinn entsprechend höher ausfällt.
Wie profitabel Blue Pearl Mining arbeitet, beweist der Blick auf die Produktionskosten. Diese liegen durchschnittlich bei 5,63 US-Dollar je Pound Molybdän. Bei einem Verkaufspreis jenseits der 25-US-Dollar-Marke, kann man die Gewinnspanne mit Fug und Recht als üppig bezeichnen. Sie sehen also: Auf Subventionen werden die Kanadier vorerst wohl nicht angewiesen sein.

Günstig bewertet aber nicht mehr spottbillig

Wirklich bemerkenswert finde ich allerdings, dass die Blue-Pearl-Mining-Aktie trotz der exorbitanten Kurszuwächse in der Vergangenheit nach wie vor recht günstig bewertet ist. Bei etwa 111 Millionen ausstehenden Papieren dürfte das Unternehmen in diesem Jahr einen Gewinn je Aktie von mindestens 1,80 US-Dollar erzielen. Somit errechnet sich ein Kurs/Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) von rund neun.

Als maßlos überteuert kann man die Aktie also sicherlich nicht bezeichnen. Spottbillig erscheint mir der Wert allerdings auch nicht mehr, vor allem wenn ich bedenke, dass Minen-Konzerne wie Rio Tinto oder BHP Billiton ein ähnliches KGV aufweisen. Immerhin sind die "Bergbau-Giganten" auf Grund ihrer insgesamt deutlich breiteren Aufstellung gegen Kursrücksetzer bei einzelnen Rohstoffen eher gefeilt.

Molybdän-Fokussierung chancenreich aber nicht ohne Risiken

Und damit sind wir dann auch schon bei einem der Hauptprobleme einer Blue Pearl Mining: Die ausschließlich Fokussierung auf den Molybdän-Sektor macht das Unternehmen anfällig, falls die Molybdän-Preise wider Erwarten doch einmal kräftig nachgeben sollten. Dieser Gefahr sollten Sie sich als potenzieller Käufer des Papiers stets bewusst sein. Auf der anderen Seite profitiert Blue Pearl Mining natürlich überproportional von weiter anziehenden Molybdän-Notierungen.

MEIN FAZIT:
Insgesamt erachte ich die Aktie von Blue Pearl Mining als ein durchaus solides Investment. Die "Story" stimmt und das Unternehmen hat durch intelligente Zukäufe den "Sprung" zum Produzenten geschafft. Der Zugang zu üppigen Vorkommen sichert das Geschäftsmodell auch längerfristig gut ab. Auf Grund der moderaten Bewertung können Sie ein Engagement sicherlich in Betracht ziehen.
"Wunderdinge" sollten Sie aber eher nicht mehr erwarten. Nach dem rasanten Kursanstieg sehe ich das weitere Kurspotenzial doch als etwas begrenzt an. Und angesichts der "Nischen-Tätigkeit" mit den daraus resultierenden Risiken eignet sich der Wert maximal als Depotbeimischung mit einer moderaten Gewichtung. Alles in allem drängen sich aggressive Käufe meines Erachtens derzeit nicht mehr unbedingt auf. Aber eine gute Halte-Position ist die Aktie von Blue Pearl Mining allemal.

+ Durch intelligente Übernahme "Sprung" zum Produzenten geschafft
+ Zugang zu üppigen Molybdän-Vorkommen
+ Profitabilität durch niedrige Förderkosten gesichert
+ Profiteur steigender Molybdän-Preise
+ Akzeptable Bewertung

- Vorkommen teilweise noch nicht NI 43-101 konform
- Sehr anfällig bei fallenden Molybdän-Notierungen

[Firsteven]

Hier mal eine kurze Zusammenfassung der div. kleinen Beiträge aus dem WO Board während der HV vom 10.05.2007:


Er freut sich, auch eine Menge Mitarbeiter begrüßen zu können .... sympathisch
Dann stellt er die anderen auf dem Podium vor.
T-BLE - Halted !!!!!!!!!
aus stockwatch
ggf. wegen Namensänderung
lob von kevin an wayne
Wayne always did an excellant job !!!!!!!!!!!
21 Mio pounds expected for the current year
this year being a good year the next year being even better
Mine im Übergang
Schuldenstand zum 31.03.07 also im Vergleich zum 31.12.2007 um knapp 80 Mio $ reduziert (incl. second lien credit).
Bei diesen knapp 320 Mio sind jedoch jetzt auch noch die 36 Mio aus dem PP von Sprott in Abzug zu bringen
--> unter 300 Mio zum 30.04.2007 !
FS Davidson in a very short time
sie erwarten steigenden Moly Price und daß es nicht möglich ist, die steigende Nachfrage zu befriedigen
Rückzahlung schneller als geplant .... Priorität Schuldenrückzahlung !!!!
2.u.3.quartal wird nicht so viel produziert werden können wie q.1. dafür wird der steigende molypreis die ergebnisse ausgleichen.
$28 to $29 per pound on average in April and early May
$25 im ersten quartal
das werden noch geilere zahlen zum 2. quartal
Production: 27 million pounds in 2008 and 29 million pounds in 2009 ohne Davidson!!!
molybdenum prospects are good...looking for prospeects elsewhere in north america
Fantastic year and a wonderful aquisition ... wie wahr !
70 % des BPM-Moly sind fest aus Jahressicht bereits verkauft ... Preis wird immer festgestellt anhand z.B. von Ryan´s Notes oder metal mines ...
hatte ich letzte woche schon als antwort von waynde eingestellt ...
die restlichen 30 % am Spotmarkt
Preise werden relativ schnell an den "Marktpreis" angepasst
Frage nach einem eventuellen Takeover
Da ist einer besorgt wg. mögl. Übernahmegefahr
"it is always a possibility
ausweichende Antwort ... wie erwartet ...
ein großer Aktionär --> Sprott ... knapp 15 %
Sprott ist der größte Aktionär - hält 15%
frage über takeover v. tc (v. publikum): übernahme wird immer wieder diskutiert kann aber nicht darüber sagen. sprott hällt 15% u. sie versuchen ihr geschäft so gut wie möglich zu machen aber "unangenehme" Dinge können immer passieren
Der beste Schutz der shareholder ist, die company so gut wie möglich zu führen...
Eine sie:
Spricht sich dafür aus, dass kanadische Unternehmen in Kanada bleiben sollen ....
Wow, 40$ könnten ein fairer Preis für eine Übernahme sein
warum übernahme: wenn ein gutes angebot reinkommt, dann wird es auch angenommen, egal ob aus canada oder sonstwo. z.b. aktueller preis 18 bei 30 wäre ein angebot. aber eigentlich wäre 40 ein fairer wert aber es wird ja auch von den aktionären abgestimmt ob sie die übernahme wollen oder nicht.
Where the moly is going ?
Auch Frage nach den Chinesen
Die Board-Mitglieder sind den shareholdern verpflichtet und leben von ihrem Vertrauen..." Das kommt sehr überzeugend & glaubwürdig rüber.
Davidson ready in 2-3 Monaten
Gewinne ... höher als von Yahoo prognostiziert
kgv deutlich unter 10
Übernahmen nicht auszuschließen
Verschuldung wird rasant abgebaut
Moly-Preis steigt
kein BPM-Moly geht nach China ....
aber dafür nach
Japan (Sojitz) ca. 1/3
Nordamerika 1/2
Europa Rest
ganz wenig nach Indien
Molyverbraucher
1) Europa
2) North America
3) China
aber eigentlich wäre 40 ein fairer wert aber es wird ja auch von den aktionären abgestimmt ob sie die übernahme wollen oder nicht.
Die 2 größten Einzelaktionäre würden wohl ablehnen,
wie ich Sprott einschätze
Phase 6 imo bei TC
Pahse 7 startet ca. 2015
Durch die neue essourcenschätzung bei TC soll auch eine Phase 8 dazukommen

[Firsteven]

Molybdän Produzenten und Explorer
Blue Pearl, Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum, China Molybdenum, Roca Mining, Mercator Minerals, Moly Mines, Northern Dynasty, Climax, Adanac Molybdenum Corporation, Idahoe General Mines, Thor Mining, Queensland Ores, Kobex Resources, Catalyst Metals, PacMag Metals, Frontier Resources, Intermin Resources, D\'Aguilar Gold, Takoradi, Marengo Mining, International Moly, United Bolero, Black Pearl Minerals, Bard Ventures, Columbia Yukon, New Cantech, Pacific Comox Resources, Playfair Mining, Torch River, Tenajon Resources, Ttm Resources, Oriental Minerals, Virgin Metals, Golden Phoenix Minerals, Amerigo Resources, Sultan Minerals Inc.
BHP Billiton, Grupo Mexico, Antofagasta, Phelps Dodge, Anglo American, Rio Tinto

[Firsteven]

Hier mal ein paar Postings aus dem WO Board während der Telefonkonferenz:



2 Millionen Pfund aus dem Bestand sind verkauft worden, 5 Millionen sind noch da, die stellen das Minimum dar!
Im Moment nur noch mal die Widerholung dessen, was wir gestern schon gehört haben .... teilweise ... Zurückführung second-line-credit etc ...
30 Mio Sondereffekt im 1.Quartal einmaliger Aufwand ... spielt im 2.Q keine Rolle mehr
TC-Produktion in 2. Q etwas geringer wegen Ohase 6 .... es muß taubes Stein bzw. weniger gehaltreiches Gestein weggeräumt werden ...
auch im 3. Q bei TC weniger Produktion ...
Preise werden aber steigen, dadurch wird das kompensiert ...
NYSE-Listing application closer towards the end of the year
ende mai oder anfang juni neue Kalkulation zu TC ... Sorry, bezog sich nicht auf TC ... dort im 3 .Q
NYSE - Bewerbung Ende des Jahres
Davidson Production Ende 2008
good cash outlook for us ... we are very positive for the tcm
davidson projekt liegt im zeitplan und umweltgenehmigungen
und anträge sind auf dem weg. produktion beginn ende 2008
Die fahren nach China und schauen sich u.a China Moly an!
Wo geht das ganze cash hin?
- Davidson
- Superpit Endako 30 auf 50 Mio Tonnen
-sie sehen sich als Moly-Firma und beabsichtigen nicht, sich in einem anderen Metall zu engagieren.
-wir schauen nicht nach Explorern, 750Mio zum Minenaufbau ist nicht im INteresse der Shareholders
Noch kein Moly an Sprott-Funds verkauft
Die 2Mio aus dem Inventory sind nicht an Sprott gegangen, das kommt erst später im Jahr
Kosten sind im 2.u.3. Quartal höher als im ersten, Produktion geringer. Low-grade stockpile wird in der Zeit druch die Mühle gejagt, allerdings mit geringerem Gehalt
Steuern betragen ungefähr 34 %....."low thirties"
Kurze TERMINÜBERSICHT von Thompson Creek Metals:
- FS Davidson ------> 2nd Q
- FS Thomspon ------> End Mai / Early June
- NYSE Listening ------> 4th Q
Und sicher viele gute News übers Jahr verteilt!

[Firsteven]

Bitte um Korrektur, sollte mir ein Fehler unterlaufen sein!!!


Erwarteter “NEWSFLOW“

Ressourcenbericht (Update) DAVIDSON (1. Teil der FS): II. Quartal 2007.
(Anm.: Umwandlung der im April kommunizierten "Ressourcen" in "Reserven")

Machbarkeitsstudie / “FS“ DAVIDSON: II. Quartal 2007.

Ressourcenbericht (Update) THOMPSON CREEK: III. Quartal 2007.

Machbarkeitsstudie / „FS“ ENDAKO (Super-Pit-Mine): 2. Halbjahr 2007.

Listing an der NYSE (New York Stock Exchange): IV. Quartal 2007.

Mögliche Beteiligung von Sojitz an TC oder Davidson (würde Cash-Flow im 3-stelligen Millionenbereich bedeuten!!!)
Anm.: Sicher erst, wenn die Machbarkeitsstudie von Davidson vorliegt.

Weitere Einschätzungen (Coverage) von Investmenthäusern.


ruhtra

[Firsteven]

von chris3011

ian war heute noch auf bnn zu gast

www.bnn.ca - um 03.20 PM

nettes interview - ian ist sehr gut drauf

er sagt 2007 wird aus besagten gründen (mineralisierung / lower grade) eines der schwächsten der letzten jahre für TC
("this ist acutally a down year", 2008 increasing production, and 2009 will be a very big year for us")

zum molypreis sagt er dass er nicht glaubt dass es noch tiefer gehen wird
"we actually selling it for 30$"

zum schluss sagt er noch ironisch, einer der gründe, warum der moly preis nicht mehr zurück kommen wird ist der, das tcm in diesem jahr "nur" 21mio lb produziert
mit einem breiten im gesicht

zum sprott pp:
wie vermutet ian: "we did sell him 3 mio shares, we didn't need to, to be honest" )

das sind ja aussichten.

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

ich denke es ist wieder einmal an der Zeit eine neue Prognose für die nächsten ein bis drei Jahre aufzustellen und dabei die vorhandenen Informationen von dem Gesamtmarktumfeld und von Thompson Creek Metals einfließen zu lassen.

Wie immer ist das Szenario meine Meinung und soll keine Kaufempfehlung darstellen.

Das von mir aufgezeigte Szenario beruht auf dem momentan für mich absehbaren Umfeld und kann natürlich durch Horrorszenarien zunichte gemacht werden. Ein eventuelles Schrumpfen der US-Wirtschaft und ein Wassereinbruch bei einer TC Mine ist für mich kein Horrorszenario und würde lediglich bremsend wirken.

Horrorszenarien wären weltweite Terroranschläge mit Atombomben sowie global wirkende Katastrophen. Meine Sichtweise ist auf die Wirtschaft ausgerichtet und nicht auf die Umwelt. Deshalb ist die von den Marketingabteilungen der Weltwirtschaft und Politik aufgebaute Klimakatastrophe natürlich keine Katastrophe, sondern ein wirtschaftlicher Segen.

Ein paar Worte zur Weltwirtschaft:
Das Wachstumstempo wird sich, getrieben durch Asien und sonstige Schwellenländer, im Beobachtungszeitraum weiter beschleunigen und zu einer Verknappung der meisten Rohstoffe führen. Das Welthandelswachstum wird im Bereich von 10% sein. Das Weltwirtschaftswachstum wird steigend im Bereich von 6% bis 8% liegen. Sogar die USA wird durch die notwendigen und überwiegend privaten Investitionen in ihre Infrastruktur, wie z.B. die notwendigen Umstrukturierungen und Investitionen im Energiebereich, und durch das enorme Weltwirtschaftswachstum etwas zum allgemeinen Wirtschaftsboom beitragen können und auch müssen.

Europa wird analog der USA wachsen. Bedingt durch die hohe Basis wird der wirtschaftliche Abstand zu den Schwellenländern sich nur langsam verringern. Dies deutet auf weitere Boomjahre nach dem Beobachtungszeitraum von 3 Jahren hin. Diese Einschätzung ist wichtig, um bei einem Invest in Aktien den richtigen Ausstiegszeitpunkt zu definieren. Gerade dieser Aspekt muss permanent beobachtet und immer wieder neu bewertet werden.

Geht man für das Jahr 2010 von einer Rezession der Weltwirtschaft aus, dann sollte man in 2008 aussteigen, da dort die Spitze der Aktienbewertung sein wird. Danach wird es dann mit dem gesamten Aktienmarkt abwärts gehen.

Aber zum Trost: Den optimalen Zeitpunkt für die Gewinnmitnahme werden wir sowieso nicht erreichen können.

Nun kommen wir zu den Aussichten für den Rohstoff Molybdäner Strukturwandel im Stahlmarkt ist im vollen Gange und wird bedingt durch das enorme Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft und im Stahlbereich noch beschleunigt. Hier ist der Bericht auf der Thompson Creek Homepage zu empfehlen.

Abgeleitet durch diesen Strukturwandel hin zu den hochwertigen und mit höheren Prozentsätzen von Molybdän versehenen Stählen wird der Molybdänverbrauch sich in den nächsten Jahren weiter beschleunigen.

Schon 2006 wuchs der Molybdänverbrauch um 6%. Ich gehe in den nächsten Jahren von einem weiter steigenden Wachstumstempo für Molybdänprodukte aus. Zumal in allen Industriebereichen mit dem Stoff neue viel versprechende Produkte konzipiert werden. Für 2009 leite ich daraus einen Bedarf von weit über 500 Mio. IB aus.

Selbst wenn alle für 2009 angekündigten neuen Produktionen in Betrieb gehen sollten, bleibt das Angebot weiter knapp. Ich folge hier den eher konservativen Einschätzung von Ian McDonald und gehe für die nächsten Jahre von einem fast ausgeglichen Molybdänmarkt aus.

Nicht umsonst ist der Frühindikator Eric Sprott in dem Markt investiert. Dies gibt mir, gerade auch in Konsolidierungsphasen, die notwendige Sicherheit um an dem getätigten Invest und den Kurszielen festzuhalten.

Den Molybdänpreis erwarte ich daher in 2008 und 2009 über der 50$ Marke. Da ich in der Mitte von 2008 einen großen Teil meiner hoffendlichen Gewinne realisieren will, kalkuliere ich bei meiner anschließenden Bewertung für TCM den KGV für 2009 auf der Basis von 50$ Gewinn pro IB.

Die TCM Aktie wird zu diesem Zeitpunkt mit den 2009 Erwartungen bewertet sein.

Zu TCM:
Die Mengenziele der einzelnen Jahre sind konservativ angesetzt und werden daher deutlich übertroffen werden.

Da ich auf den Kurs des Jahres 2008 fixiert bin, interessiert mich das Ergebnis der Jahre 2007 und 2008 eher nicht. Ab Mitte 2008 wird der Kurs durch die Erwartungen für 2009 bestimmt werden.

Trotzdem werden natürlich die jetzt kommenden Ereignisse das Ergebnis für 2009 bestimmen. Daher eine kurze Einschätzung der von mir erwarteten Ereignisse.

Der erwartete Super-Pitplan für Endako wird in 2007 und 2008 umgesetzt werden. Dadurch wird der Mengenausstoß bei Endako in 2008 und 2009 deutlich erhöht werden.

Der neue Abbauplan für TC wird umgesetzt und auch hier wird der Mengenausstoß deutlich erhöht werden.

Die Machbarkeitsstudie für Davidson wird in den nächsten Monaten kommen und umgesetzt werden. Durch den Abbau in den High-Grad Zonen wird bei gleicher Tonnage (2.000 Tonnen Gestein pro Tag) ein deutlich höherer Abbau als 5 Mio. IB in 2009 erfolgen können. Ich denke, dass gerade die Optimierung des Abbauplanes die Offenlegung der Machbarkeitsstudie verzögert. Eine Verdoppelung der gewonnenen Menge sollte Anhand der 2006er Bohrergebnisse für 2009 möglich sein.

Die Genehmigung des Abbaues wird für Anfang 2008 erwartet. Die erwarteten Auflagen werden den Starttermin der Produktion, wie von TCM geplant, Ende 2008 ermöglichen. Eine positive Überraschung hinsichtlich der Terminierung ist hier möglich.

Sojitz wird sich mit 25% an Davidson beteiligen.

Es werden in 2007 und 2008 mindestens zwei weitere Produzenten übernommen werden.
Die Übernahmen werden durch Kapitalerhöhungen, aus dem Cash und aus eventuellen neuen Krediten finanziert werden.

Die Ergebnisse in 2007 und 2008 werden durch diese Ereignisse natürlich massiv beeinflusst und sind daher nur schwer kalkulierbar.

Das Ergebnis für 2009 kalkuliere ich aus den von mir erwarteten Abbaumengen der drei bekannten Minen und zu 50$ Gewinn pro IB bei einer Aktienanzahl von 111 Mio.

45 Mio. IB zu 50$ = 2.250 Mio. USD
- sonstige Kosten / steuerlich anrechenbarer Invest 500 Mio. USD = 1.750 Mio. USD
- Steuer 35% von 613 Mio. USD = 1.137 Mio. USD Gewinn

Gewinn = 1.137 Mio. USD
Pro Aktie = 10,24 USD = 11,37 CAD

Kursziel bei KGV 10:
11,37 CAD * 10 = 113,70 CAD = 75,80 Euro.

+ 20% erwarteter Effekt aus zwei Übernahmen

75,80 * 120% = 90,96 Euro.

Die Gegenrechnung des Wertes über die Ressourcen/Reservenbetrachtung liegt bei einem 50$ Preis ebenfalls in diesem Bereich.

Nachbetrachtung:
Zu meiner ersten Analyse ist dies eine Verdoppelung meines damals ausgegebenen Kurszieles. Dies ergibt sich durch die wesentlich höheren Abbaumengen, da ich Ende 2006 von einem Auslaufen der Endakoproduktion ausgegangen bin.

Anstatt des Auslaufens wird nun aber die Produktionsmenge deutlich erhöht werden.

Das Kursziel wird dabei massiv durch den Molybdänpreis beeinflusst.

Zum momentanen Preis von 30 USD pro IB ergibt die Berechnungen für 2009 ein Kursziel in Euro von 32,50.

Bei einem Preis von 25 USD ergibt sich ein Kursziel von 21 Euro.

Bei einem Molybdänpreis um die 20 USD wäre die Aktie fair bewertet.

Meine persönliche Bewertung:
Durch die oben erstellte Berechnung bin ich sehr, sehr bullisch für die Aktie eingestellt. Dies erklärt auch die Höhe meiner Investition in die TCM Aktie.

Ob die Aktie jemals in die Regionen steigen wird, hängt von dem Eintreffen der Prognosen ab. Bisher wurde ich bei den Fundamentaldaten überwiegend positiv überrascht. Daher hat sich meine persönliche Erwartungshaltung für die nächsten 12 bis 18 Monate auch sehr deutlich erhöht.

Es ist mir peinlich, aber meine Prognose ist noch nicht einmal eine Bestcaseprognose, sondern die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintreffens ist bei der momentanen weltwirtschaftlichen Lage und den handelnden Personen sehr Groß.

Mit Sicherheit werden die Prognosen nicht genauso, wie hier beschrieben eintreffen, sondern die Abweichungen werden sich saldieren. Gerade die von mir eingeplanten 500 Mio. USD für sonstige Kosten und dem anrechenbaren Invest geben mir zusätzliche Sicherheit, dass der Kurs in diese Regionen steigen kann.

Warnungen:
Es empfiehlt sich, wie bei jedem anderen Invest auch, die Lage der Firma immer wieder neu zu bewerten.

Ist man der Meinung, dass wichtige beeinflussenden Faktoren in den negativen Bereich drehen, dann muss man aus dem Invest aussteigen.

Genauso, wie sich die fundamentale Datenlage permanent verbessert hat, so kann sich die Datenlage natürlich auch verschlechtern.

Der Zeitraum April 2000 bis April 2003 sollte jedem eine Warnung sein.

Weitere Kursentwicklung:
Die durch kapitalkräftige Zocker ausgelöste Januarkonsolidierung kann zu jeder Zeit wieder erfolgen. Zumal die Initiatoren des Spieles wahrscheinlich im Kursbereich über 18 CAD ausgestiegen sind.

Da ich Long bin und solche Konsolidierungen in jedem Langfristchart von steigenden Aktien zu finden sind, ist das Spiel zwar nervend, aber es gehört nun mal zu dem Geschäft dazu.

Da nicht absehbar ist, wann genau das Spiel erfolgreich betrieben wird, bleibe ich in diesen Phasen investiert. Platt gesagt, ich bin einfach nur zu blöde diese Phasen frühzeitig zu erkennen.

Es kostet mehr Geld einen Teil eines Hype zu verpassen, als man durch das zwischenzeitliche Gezocke gewinnen kann (Siehe Anstieg von 7, 11 CAD auf über 18 CAD). Aber jeder so, wie er es mag, oder man gehört zu dem Großzockerclan dazu. Dann hat man die 6 gewürfelt.

Wann genau der Markt in dem erhofften Sinne reagieren wird, mag ich nicht zu sagen. Je nach dem, wie das Quartalsergebnis aufbereitet und in den Markt gegeben wird, kann es in der nächsten Woche beginnen. Auch die nicht zu überhörenden Übernahmegerüchte können den Kurs weiter antreiben.

Da der Molybdänpreis weiter steigt, ist nicht mit einer längeren Konsolidierung zu rechnen.

Die täglich zu erwartenden Nachrichten geben dem Kurs zusätzlich Sicherheit und sollten zu mindestens stützend wirken.

Kurz gesagt: Ist mir eigentlich auch egal. Mich interessieren nur die fundamentalen Daten.

Das TCM-Management hat auf der HV das Kurzfristziel durch den Preis für eine Übernahme auf 30 bis 40 CAD gesetzt. Mal sehen, ob die Rechnung in den nächsten Wochen aufgeht.

Chance/Risiko:
Das Verhältnis hat sich trotz des bisherigen Kursanstieges
noch weiter verbessert und ist in meinen Augen einmalig Gut.

Bitte hiermit wie immer um Sachdiskussionen.

therefore

[Firsteven]

hallo 4now,

ich sehe die Besetzung der Direktorenposten etwas anders.

The Company is also pleased to announce the election of two new Directors of the Company: James P. Geyer, Senior Vice President of Gold Reserve Inc., a mineral development company;

ein kurzer Link auf die Homepage von Gold reserve inc. zeigt uns, dass der Junge ein Spezialist für die Erstellung und den betrieb von underground und open-Pit Minen ist.

So ein Zufall. Sollen doch in nächster Zeit eine underground und eine super-pit Mine erstellt werden.

and Timothy J. Haddon, President and Chief Executive Officer of International Natural Resource Management Co., a private company involved in mining industry investment and consultation, and Chairman of Anatolia Minerals Development Limited, a mineral exploration company.

Will TCM nicht zufälliger Weise andere Produzenten übernehmen und in die bestehende Infrastruktur investieren? Gibt es nicht einige Projekt zu steuern?

Ian holt sich einfach nur die Besten der Besten zusammen. Nach Wayne Cheveldayoff hat er die nächsten Schwergewichte mit an Bord geholt.

Meine Bewertung: 1 Plus für Ian und seine Crew.

Hier wird mit Sinn und Verstand ein neuer Minengigant aufgebaut.

Das etwas in der Türkei oder in Venezuela geplant wird kann ich mir beim besten Willen nicht vorstellen. Er braucht für die vielen Projekte einfach nur Spezialisten.

Auf alle Fälle wurde mehrfach und auch Glaubhaft versichert, dass TCM nicht in Explorer investieren wird.

Die Leute lügen nicht.

Die Party hat gerade erst angefangen.

therefore

[Firsteven]

Hallo therefore,

vielen Dank für diese fundierte Betrachtung.
Wie du schon selbst sagst, bist du von eher vorsichtigen Annahmen ausgegangen. Selbst die von dir angesetzte Produktionsmenge von 45 Mio lb in 2009, die mir zunächst als etwas zu hoch gegriffen vorkam, lässt sich durchaus begründen. Insofern kann ich nur sagen: volle Übereinstimmung mit deinen Ergebnissen, es würde mich aber nicht überraschen, wenn es sogar noch etwas besser laufen würde.

Es ist zwar noch ein weiter Weg, bis der Markt das volle Potential von TCM in einen fairen Aktienkurs umgesetzt haben wird, aber Wertsteigerungen in diesen Größenordnungen benötigen eben Zeit.
Und wir haben mit dieser Aktie die wirklich seltene Gelegenheit, die hohen Wertsteigerungen wie bei einem Explorer zu erleben, bei dem niedrigen Risiko eines Blue Chip.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

von rudixxx

Mir bekannte angekündigte neuen Produktionen bis 2011

Golden Phönix - Ashdorn (seit Dez. 2006) ca. 1,5 Mio lb/Jahr
-> Problem nicht 43-101 konforme Resourcen
keine Moly-Lagerstätte sondern eine Erzader mit der weltweit höchsten Konzentration (bis 7% Moly)

Roca Mines - MAX (Mitte 2007) mit bis zu 3 mio pfund moly/jahr
-> Problem: Tiefbergbau, nur geringe 5 Jahre Minenlaufzeit, Chance auf einen Super-Super-Jackpot, wenn die Bohrungen erfolgreich sind.

Mercator - Mineral Park (2008) mit 10 mio pfund moly/jahr
-> sehr solides Managment, Kupfer/Moly Produktion, vom Kupferpreis abhängig
bedeutende Position im Sprott-Moly-Fond

Adanac - Ruby Creek (Ende 2008) mit 10 mio pfund moly/jahr
-> am weitesten von allen noch folgenden.
Sehr viel undurchsichtiges im Hintergrund
Aber wenn die Permits da sind, dann wird auch die Finanzierung folgen.

moly mines - Spinifex (Mitte 2009) mit 10 - 20 mio pfund moly/jahr
-> Ich hab kein gutes Gefühl bei denen, aber andere sehen das anders.

Phelph Doge - Climax (2009)- bis zu 30 Mio lb/Jahr
-> Freeport hat alles geld der Welt. Wenn die wollen, dann schaffen die die Inbetriebnahme in wenigen Monaten

idaho general mines - Mount Hope (2010) 30 - 35 million pfund moly/jahr
-> Größenwahnsinn pur, keine gesicherten Resourcenberechnungen, riesiges Projekt und rieseige Finanzierung

Quadra - Malmbjerg(Iceland): (2010-2011) mit ca. 30 Mio lb/jahr
-> Quadra verdient mit Kupfer richtig gut. dadurch könnte das Moly-Projekt auch querfinanziert werden

Silvercorp - YING MOLY (China)
möglicherweise ab 2010-2011 bis zu 3 Mio lb/Jahr (1000t/day)
-> kürzlich bei BNN als "most growing and most undervalued TSE stock" bezeichnet
In China weiß man nie was passiert

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group Co operates a 25 million pounds per year Molybdenum mine : "on going development of additional moly concentrate production"
-> Die Nummer 2 in China- keine konkreten Zahlen aufzufinden. vielleich konsolidieren die viele kleine Produzenten zusammen

Alle anderen Moly-Werte die ich kenne sind noch weit von einer PFS entfernt.
Aber vielleicht hab ich ja auch welche vergessen.

[Firsteven]

somit würden in 2010 allein durch die ausweitung von tcm und phelps dodge sowie den oben genannten explorern etwa 90 - 120 mio pfund moly zusätzlich dazukommen ... bei einem kumuliertem wachstum von 4% auf den molyverbrauch ergibt sich in 2010 ein bedarf von 480 mio pfund moly (vielleicht auch 500 mio pfund); ergo: wir haben einen molyüberhang wenn wir davon ausgehen das die jetzigen produzenten ihren ausstoß in etwa halten und die oben genannten explorer tatsächlich alle pünktlich mit den geplanten mengen in produktion gehen.

Fazit: bis min mitte 2009 bleibt die aktie auf jeden fall attraktiv (höchstens die weltmärkte brechen ein, dann fällt aber alles!)


Hallo fisch29,

das sehe ich etwas anders.

Im letzten Jahr wuchs der Molybdänverbrauch um 6%. Im Stahlbereich ist gerade ein Strukturwandel hin zu höherwertigen Stählen mit einem höherem Molybdänanteil im Gange.

Die Analyse zu dem Strukturwandel auf der TCM Homepage ist für das Verständnis des Prozesses sehr hilfreich.

Sachlich und fundiert wird hier der Prozess erläutert. Zusätzlich entstehen immer mehr neue Verfahren und Patente bei Produkten mit Molybdänanteilen.

Zusätzlich haben wieder einmal alle Stahlkonzerne ihren Umsatzausblick erhöht. Wenn man den Markt schon etwas länger beobachtet hat, dann sind die Prognosen in der Branche sehr konservativ angesetzt.

Durch die gerade erst angefangenen Investitionen in den Energie und Infrastrukturbereich, dem gerade erst angefangenen weltweiten Aufschwung im Konsumgüterbereich ist für die nächsten Jahre von weiter steigenden Wachstumsraten der Weltwirtschaft auszugehen.

Ergo: Die Wachstumsrate bei Molybdän wird nicht bei 4%, sonder weit aus höher liegen.

Ich persönlich gehe in 2007 von 7%, in 2008 von 7,5% in 2009 von 8% und in 2010 von 8,5% Wachstum beim Molybdänverbrauch aus.

Daraus abgeleitet ergibt sich folgender Mehrbedarf an Molybdän für die nächsten Jahre:

Jahr Wachstum Mehrmenge Gesamtmenge Mehrmenge
Basis 2006 416,00
2007 7,00 29,12 445,12 29,12
2008 7,50 33,38 478,50 62,50
2009 8,00 38,28 516,78 100,78
2010 8,50 43,93 560,71 144,71
2011 9,00 50,46 611,17 195,17

Nach meinem Planspiel fehlen demnach noch mindestens 24 Mio. IB Molybdän für 2010.

Da Eric Sprott in den physischen Molymarkt einsteigt und Ian McDonald von hohen Preisen für mehrere Jahre ausgeht, denke ich, dass ich mit meiner Kalkulation nicht grob falsch liege.

Ausserdem: Momentan sind im Minenbereich selbst die Ressourcenschätzungen nicht mehr pünktlich.

Wie um alles in der Welt sollen denn dann alle geplanten Minen pünktlich in Betrieb gehen?

Nach meiner Meinung ist demnach auch der Langfristausblick sehr gut. Und der Mehrbedarf für 2011 in Höhe von fast 200 Mio. IB, wie soll der gedeckt werden?

Vieleicht sind meine Wachstumsraten zu hoch angesetzt, dafür werden aber auch die Minen nicht wie geplant in Betrieb gehen können.

Wir werden sehen.

therefore

[Firsteven]

und hier das lang erwartete Posting von CHARTEX !!



Vorwort:
Gestern hat therefore eine sehr interessante Berechnung der künftigen Gewinne und Kurse hier im Forum eingestellt. Er hat dabei die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen des Molypreises und der Produktionsmengen von TCM berücksichtigt, also Entwicklungen, die durchaus wahrscheinlich sind, jedoch noch nicht konkret als Planzahlen und Aussagen von Seiten des Unternehmens vorliegen. Seinen Berechnungen stimme ich vollkommen zu.

Nun hat jeder Investor einen etwa anderen Ansatz, wie er sein Investment regelmäßig Überprüft und beurteilt. Mein Ansatz ist es, die konkreten Aussagen und Vorgaben in Gewinnzahlen zu fassen. Darüber hinausgehende Entwicklungen bewerte ich erst dann mit Zahlen, wenn sie in den Planungen des Unternehmens sehr konkret fassbar geworden sind. Nachfolgend will ich meine (aufgrund der Quartalszahlen aktualisierten) Berechnungen vorstellen und ggf. zur Diskussion stellen.


Vorgaben:
Es ist schon nicht möglich, die genaue Entwicklung des Molybdänpreises für das Jahr 2007 und 2008 vorherzusagen. Derzeit liegt der Molypreis bei etwa 31 US-$ je Pfund (Moly-Oxid etwas niedriger, Ferro-Moly etwas höher). Nach meiner Auffassung wird der durchschnittliche Molypreis für den Rest des Jahres bei mindestens diesen 31 US-Dollar je Pfund liegen (vermutlich sogar deutlich darüber). Dies ist deshalb der Wert, den ich für meine Berechnung ansetzte. Sobald sich neue Erkenntniss über einen veränderten Molypreis ergeben, müsste die Berechnung entsprechend angepasst werden.

TCM hat eine vertragliche Lieferverpflichtung über 5% der Molyförderung aus der Phase-6-Produktion der Thompson-Creek-Mine zu Preisen deutlich unterhalb des Marktpreises und weitere 5% etwas unter dem Marktpreis. Ich gehe davon aus, dass dies zu eine Erlösschmälerung von 3% der Produktion führen wird. Da andererseits ein Teil der Produktion aufgrund guter Qualität des Moybdäns auf dem Spotmarkt zu Preisen von einigen Prozent über dem durchschnittlichen Marktpreis abgesetzt werden kann, gehe ich davon aus, dass beide Effekte sich in etwa ausgleichen und rechne zum oben genannten Preis ohne Ab- oder Aufschläge.

Die wesentlichen Informationen stammen aus dem Anual Report 2006 vom 13.4.2007, den Interim Financial Statements und dem MD&A vom 10.5.2007 (www.sedar.com).

Berechung des Gewinnes 2007

Da die Zahlen für das 1.Quartal nunmehr komplett vorliegen, berechne ich zunächst die verbleibenden 3 Quartale und addiere dann die realen Zahlen des 1.Quartales. Das so ermittelte Ergebnis sollte deutlich präziser sein, als eine Rechnung über alle 4 Quartale hinweg.

Die Thompson-Creek-Mine soll 2007 12,8 Mio Pfund produzieren. Im 1.Quartal wurden 3,842 Mio Pfund produziert und es verbleiben 8,958 Mio Pfund für das restliche Jahr. Bei 31 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 277,698 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten betragen 8,50 US-$ je Pfund (Seite 6 Anual Report) für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 76,14 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 201,558 Mio US-$.

Die Endako-Mine (nur der BPM-Anteil wurde in der Rechnung berücksichtigt) soll 2007 8,5 Mio Pfund produzieren. Im 1.Quartal wurden 1,591 Mio Pfund produziert und es verbleiben 6,909 Mio Pfund für das restliche Jahr. Bei 31 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 214,179 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten betragen 6,65 US-$ je Pfund (Seite 6 Anual Report) für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 45,95 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 168,229 Mio US-$.

In Langeloth wurde Moly für Fremdfirmen geröstet und Moly recycled. Im 1.Quartal ergaben sich daraus Erlöse in Höhe von 7,232 Mio US-$. Für die verbleibenden 3 Quartale ergeben sich zusammen 21,696 Mio US-$.

Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 391,483 Mio US-$.
Ausgehend von dem Zahlen für das 1.Quartal ergeben sich für die restlichen 3 Quartale folgende Kosten:
Selling and Marketing 4,8 Mio US-$
Depreciation and Depletion 48,24 Mio US-$
General and Administrative 9,32 Mio US-$
Exploration and Development 5,6 Mio US-$
Interest and finance fees (gekürzt wegen Schuldentilgung) 25 Mio US-$
Stock Based Compensation 7,854 Mio US-$
Interest Income (erhöht wegen mehr Guthaben) - 8 Mio US-$

Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 298,669 Mio US-$

TCM gibt eine Ertragsteuerbelastungvon 34% an.

Somit verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 197,122 Mio US-$ für 3 Quartale. Hinzu kommt der Gewinn des 1.Quartales in Höhe von 47,735 Mio US-$.
Als Gesamtgewinn ergeben sich 244,857 Mio US-$.

Umgerechnet in kanadische Dollar (Faktor 1,11) sind das etwa 271,8 Mio CAD.

Derzeit sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 2,45 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem fairen KGV von 12 ergäbe sich ein fairer Kurs der Aktie von 29,40 CAD
An der Börse ist es üblich, sich danach zu orientieren, mit welchem KGV vergleichbare Unternehmen gehandelt werden (Peer-Group-Vergleich). Als absolut vergleichbar bietet sich das chinesiche Unternehmen China Molybdenum an. Dieses Unternehmen wird derzeit (11.5.2007) gehandelt mit einem KGV von 29,35.

Wenn man dieses KGV bei Thompson-Creek-Metals zugrunde legen würde, dann müsste die Aktie zu einem Kurs von 71,90 CAD gehandelt werden.

Berechung des Gewinnes 2008


Die Thompson-Creek-Mine soll 2008 17 Mio Pfund produzieren. Bei 31 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 527 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten (incl. Rösten) betrugen im 1.Quartal 2007 4,52 US-$ je Pfund, im Jahr 2006 5,83 US-$. Konservativ nehme ich den höheren der beiden Werte und erhalte 99,11 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 427,89 Mio US-$.

Die Endako-Mine (nur der BPM-Anteil wurde in der Rechnung berücksichtigt) soll 2008 10 Mio Pfund produzieren. Bei 31 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 310 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten sollen geringer sein als im Vorjahr. Eine genauere Angabe habe ich nicht gefunden und ich rechne konservativ mit 6,30 US-$ je Pfund für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 63 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 247 Mio US-$.

In Langeloth wurde Moly für Fremdfirmen geröstet und auch recycled. Im 1.Quartal 2007 ergaben sich daraus Erlöse von 7,232 Mio US-$. Hochgerechnet auf ein Jahr führt das zu Erlösen von 28,928 Mio US-$.

Die Davidson-Mine hat gegen Ende 2008 die Produktion aufgenommen und 2 Mio Pfund Moly produziert. Bei 31$ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 62 Mio US-$.
Die genauen Produktionskosten sind noch nicht bekannt. Geschätzt wurde ein Betrag von 5-6 $ je Pfund. Ich rechne mit 6 $ und erhalte Kosten von 12 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 50 Mio US-$.

Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 753,818 Mio US-Dollar.
Ausgehend von den Zahlen für das 1.Quartal 2007 ergeben sich auf ein komplettes Jahr hochgerechnet folgende Kosten:
Selling and Marketing (erhöht wegen mehr Umsatz) 8 Mio US-$
Depreciation and Depletion 64,328 Mio US-$
General and Administrative 12,432 Mio US-$
Interest and Finance Fees (gekürzt wegen Schuldentilgung) 10 Mio US-$
Stock Based Compensation 10,472 Mio US-$
Interest Income - 7,6 Mio US-$
Entwicklung von Davidson (geschätzt) 50 Mio US-$

Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 606,186 Mio US-$

TCM gibt eine Ertragsteuerbelastung von 34% an.

Somit verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 400,083 Mio US-$.

Umgerechnet in kanadische Dollar (Faktor 1,11) sind das etwa 444 Mio CAD.

Derzeit sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 4,00 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem fairen KGV von 12 ergäbe sich ein fairer Kurs der Aktie von 48,00 CAD
An der Börse ist es üblich, sich danach zu orientieren, mit welchem KGV vergleichbare Unternehmen gehandelt werden (Peer-Group-Vergleich). Als absolut vergleichbar bietet sich das chinesiche Unternehmen China Molybdenum an. Dieses Unternehmen wird derzeit (11.5.2007) gehandelt mit einem KGV von 29,35.

Wenn man dieses KGV bei Thompson-Creek-Metals zugrunde legen würde, dann müsste die Aktie zu einem Kurs von 117,40 CAD gehandelt werden.

Da an der Börse die Zukunft gehandelt wird, sollte ab Mitte 2007 der Kurs der Aktie beginnen, sich am Gewinn und KGV für 2008 zu orientieren. Bei einem Molypreis, der wesentlich von der Berechnungsgrundlage von 31 $ je Pfund abweicht, müsste diese Berechnung entsprechend angepasst werden.


Berechung des Gewinnes 2009

Die Thompson-Creek-Mine soll 2009 18 Mio Pfund produzieren (siehe Grafik der Präsentation vom 27.3.2007 - www.bluepearl.ca). Bei 31 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 558 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten (incl. Rösten) betrugen im 1.Quartal 2007 4,52 US-$ je Pfund, im Jahr 2006 5,83 US-$. Konservativ nehme ich den höheren der beiden Werte, und erhalte 104,84 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 453,16 Mio US-$.

Die Endako-Mine (nur der BPM-Anteil wurde in der Rechnung berücksichtigt) soll 2009 12 Mio Pfund produzieren (siehe Grafik der Präsentation vom 27.3.2007 - die mögliche Entwicklung einer Super-Pit-Mine ist hier noch nicht enthalten). Bei 31 $ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 372 Mio US-$.
Die Produktionskosten sollen geringer sein als im Jahr 2006. Eine genauere Angabe habe ich nicht gefunden und ich rechne konservativ mit 6,30 US-$ je Pfund für alle Produktionsschritte incl. der Röstung, somit zusammen 75,60 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 296,4 Mio US-$.

In Langeloth wurde Moly für Fremdfirmen geröstet und auch recycled. Im 1.Quartal 2007 ergaben sich daraus Erlöse von 7,232 Mio US-$. Hochgerechnet auf ein Jahr führt das zu Erlösen von 28,928 Mio US-$. Da durch die erhöhte eigene Produktion der für Fremdröstung zur Verfügung stehende Anteil der Röstkapazität sinken dürfte, reduziere ich diese Erlöse auf 20 Mio US-$.

Die Davidson-Mine hat gegen Ende 2008 die Produktion aufgenommen und erreicht 2009 die volle geplante Kapazität von 4,7 Mio Pfund Moly. Bei 31$ je Pfund ergibt sich somit ein Erlös von 145,7 Mio US-$.
Die genauen Produktionskosten sind noch nicht bekannt. Geschätzt wurde ein Betrag von 5-6 $ je Pfund. Ich rechne mit 6 $ und erhalte Kosten von 28,2 Mio US-$.
Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 117,5 Mio US-$.

Die kompletten Überschüsse zusammen ergeben die Summe von 887,06 Mio US-Dollar.

Ausgehend von den Zahlen für das 1.Quartal 2007 ergeben sich auf ein komplettes Jahr hochgerechnet folgende Kosten:
Selling and Marketing (erhöht wegen mehr Umsatz) 9 Mio US-$
Depreciation and Depletion 64,328 Mio US-$
General and Administrative 12,432 Mio US-$
Stock Based Compensation 10,472 Mio US-$
Interest Income - 7,6 Mio US-$

Somit verbleibt ein Überschuß von 798,43 Mio US-$

TCM gibt eine Ertragsteuerbelastung von 34% an.

Somit verbleibt ein Gewinn nach Steuern von 526,964 Mio US-$.

Umgerechnet in kanadische Dollar (Faktor 1,11) sind das etwa 584,93 Mio CAD.

Derzeit sind rund 111 Mio Aktien im Umlauf.
Somit ergibt sich ein Gewinn von 5,27 CAD je Aktie.
Bei einem fairen KGV von 12 ergäbe sich ein Kurs der Aktie von 63,24 CAD
An der Börse ist es üblich, sich danach zu orientieren, mit welchem KGV vergleichbare Unternehmen gehandelt werden (Peer-Group-Vergleich). Als absolut vergleichbar bietet sich das chinesiche Unternehmen China Molybdenum an. Dieses Unternehmen wird derzeit (11.5.2007) gehandelt mit einem KGV von 29,35.

Wenn man dieses KGV bei Thompson-Creek-Metals zugrunde legen würde, dann müsste die Aktie zu einem Kurs von 154,67 CAD gehandelt werden.

Da an der Börse die Zukunft gehandelt wird, sollte ab Mitte 2008 der Kurs der Aktie beginnen, sich am Gewinn und KGV für 2009 zu orientieren. Bei einem Molypreis, der wesentlich von der Berechnungsgrundlage von 31 $ je Pfund abweicht, müsste diese Berechnung entsprechend angepasst werden.
Zudem ist zu erwarten, dass die Produktion 2009 sehr deutlich ansteigen wird, bedingt durch die Einrichtung eines Super-Pit in Endako und sich daraus ergebende Produktionssteigerung.

chartex

[ruhtra]

Hallo Firsteven
Nachfolgende Textteile habe ich "gem. Aufforderung " korrigiert:

Beitrag 937 von Firsteven
Textteil:
- FS Thomspon ------> End Mai / Early June

Vor der Machbarkeitsstudie Davidson muß ja zunächst der Ressourcenbericht Davidson (1. Teil der FS) erscheinen. Kann sich folglich nur um dieses Update Ende Mai/Anfang Juni handeln, da die FS Davidson ja für das II. Quartal 2007 angekündigt wurde.
Von einer FS Thompson ist mir auch nichts bekannt. Ich weiß nur von einem Ressourcenbericht, der im III. Quartal 2007 vorgelegt werden soll.

Beitrag 938 von Firsteven:
Textteil:
Ressourcenbericht (Update) DAVIDSON (1. Teil der FS): II. Quartal 2007.
(Anm.: Umwandlung der im April kommunizierten "Ressourcen" in "Reserven")

Die Anmerkung bezieht sich auf die "Machbarkeitsstudie Endako".
Hatte den Flüchtigkeitsfehler im Hauptthread gleich richtiggestellt.

BG ruhtra

[schnucksche]

Hallo all,

ich habe die Diskussion um die zwei neuen Direktoren dazu genutzt, meine Auffassung über das "Warum" zu überdenken und danach Wayne anzumailen. Es hat sich meine Annahme bestätigt, aber lest selbst.

btb., ich habe natürlich auch eine Frage zum AMEX-Listing gestellt. Auch dazu die Antwort von Wayne:

Hi XXX,



About the appointment of the directors, two were appointed but one was to replace the retiring John Kalmet. So why were two appointed instead of one? The answer is that our Company needs another director to help with the work, including committee work of the Board. As the company grows, there is more for the Board of Directors to do, so having an extra director helps.



As for the reasons for these particular two directors, they are very experienced mining engineers and senior executives and this will be a benefit to the Company when important decisions are going to be made. The Executive Chairman wants a very experienced Board of Directors to ensure the Board makes the right decisions on all matters for shareholders.



Your questions about a link to a super pit or other parts of the world are attempting to interpret too much. We have internal staff and consultants to provide the engineering expertise on all projects, so we are not looking to directors for this expertise. We also have investment bankers who can provide us with financial and investment expertise. When all of this is before the board for a decision, it is in the interest of shareholders to have very strong and experienced directors to make the final decisions.



Our CEO and Executive Chairman have stated on many occasions that they see the company staying in North America, at least for now, so there is no interest right now in any other parts of the world.



On the application for a NYSE listing, we don’t have a specific schedule for it. Our accounting team is currently working on adapting our internal reporting, control and accounting systems to match what is required by Sarbanes Oxley and other laws and rules in the United States (which are different than what exists in Canada). It is a lot of work and takes time. So, when that is done, we will be in a position to make the application for a NYSE listing. We know investors are anxious for the Company to become listed in the U.S., but we need to make sure our internal systems fully comply before we proceed on this.



Best regards,

Wayne Cheveldayoff

[betzo]

Ich habe eine Frage zur Kostenberechnung im Quartalsbericht.

Im quarterly report vom 10.05. werden unter operating expenses (pro verkauftem Pfund Moly) insgesamt 15,42$ genannt, abzgl der 2,81$ für den alten Lagerbestand sind es noch 12,61$. Weiß jemand, wie die sich zusammensetzen?

Meiner Meinung nach sind hier zwar auch die Kosten für das von dritten aufgekaufte Moly, daß in Langloth geröstet und dann verkauft wurde drin, aber ich komme trotzdem nicht auf den Wert von 12,61$ pro Pfund.

In Kanada komme ich bei Annahme von 8,31$/lb auf 13,2Mio $ Kosten pro Quartal, d.h. es wurden 4,4 Mio $ zusätzlich ausgegeben.

Bei den US-Ops komme ich auf 17,37 Mio $ Produktionskosten pro Quartal, d.h. es wurden 98 Mio $ zusätzlich ausgegeben. Bei 3 Millionen Pfund, die von dritten gekauft und geröstet wurden und einem angenommenen Kaufpreise von 25$/lb, sind 23 Mio Pfund an zusätzlichen Kosten anzusetzen.


Wenn jemand zu dieser Diskrepanz fundierte Auskunft geben könnte, würde ich mich freuen!

[Firsteven]

South Korea Starts Molybdenum Smelter, Eyes Exports to Japan

By Meeyoung Song

May 13 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea, the world's fifth- largest steelmaking nation, opened the nation's first smelter for molybdenum, used to strengthen the alloy, to cut costs and export to Japan and Taiwan amid surging prices.

The smelter, located in Yeosu, 455 kilometers (283 miles) south of Seoul, will have initial production capacity of 6,000 metric tons a year, making it the world's seventh-largest, Korea Resources Corp. said in a statement today. The plant, which will supply about half its output to Posco, may double its capacity starting next year, the company said.

The smelter will help South Korea, Asia's third-largest economy, reduce dependence on refined imports from China and Chile and tap rising demand from steel mills. Global molybdenum prices have increased 25 percent in the past year, according to Metal Bulletin magazine.

``It's a smart move,'' said Mark Pervan, head of research at Daiwa Securities SMBC, in Melbourne. ``There's going to be very strong underlying demand for nickel substitute products like molybdenum and chromium,'' over the next three to four years, he said.

The new smelter will initially meet 35 percent of domestic demand and save about 130 billion won ($140 million) in imports, the government-owned energy and mineral resource explorer said. The plant will meet 70 percent of domestic demand when it doubles capacity.

Ore Is Cheaper

Importing molybdenum ore is 10 percent to 13 percent cheaper than buying the refined product and the smelter will break even in about five and a half years, said Youn Cheal Hean, a director general at Korea Resources' business development team.

``Global demand for molybdenum is growing 5.2 percent every year, while there is a shortage of smelting facilities,'' Lee Han Ho, Chief Executive Officer at state-run Korea Resources said to reporters on May 11 at the opening ceremony of the plant in Yeosu. ``This smelter will enable us to even become an exporter. We plan to export to Japan and Taiwan.''

The smelter, a joint venture between Korea Resources and KTC Korea Co., a metals trader, will initially receive 670 tons of molybdenum ore a year from a mine in Uljin, 330 kilometers southeast of Seoul, Korea Resources said. The mine, the only molybdenum mine in the country so far, has estimated reserves of 3.7 million tons. Lee said Korea Resources has plans to explore and develop more mines in the country, without elaborating.

Smelter Sales

Molybdenum accounts for 1 percent of the volume of the raw materials used to make stainless steel, and 20 percent of the value because of its price. The smelter plans to post sales of 200 billion won next year and double that figure to 400 billion won by 2010, the company said.

China, home to the world's biggest molybdenum deposits, will soon issue licenses and impose quotas on exports of the commodity, Wu Wenjun, general manager of China Molybdenum said in March. The country imposed a 10 percent export tax on ferro- molybdenum from November 2006, after canceling an export tax rebate from January 2005. It also set thresholds for molybdenum plant expansions in January.

To contact the reporter on this story: Meeyoung Song in Seoul at [e-mail] .

Last Updated: May 12, 2007 22:00 EDT

[Firsteven]

By Cameron French
TORONTO, May 14 (Reuters) - Blue Pearl Mining is
changing its name and plans to apply for a U.S. stock listing
later this year, but the high-flying molybdenum producer isn't
anxious to join the flurry of corporate takeovers in the mining
sector.
The company will begin trading as Thompson Creek Metals
under the symbol on Tuesday, adopting the name of the
company Blue Pearl bought last year, an acquisition that
allowed it to join the upper ranks of molybdenum producers.
"In the industry, Thompson Creek is well known and has a
serious brand as a supplier of premium product," executive
chairman Ian McDonald told Reuters.
"In fact, we normally get a small premium to the spot price
because of the product."
Billed as the world's largest publicly traded, pure-play
molybdenum producer, Blue Pearl's stock has jumped 25-fold
since the beginning of 2006 as investors have taken a shine to
the metal, which is used primarily as a hardening agent in the
production of stainless steel.
With a price of C$17.52 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on
Monday, the company now boasts a market capitalization of more
than C$2 billion.
That level would seem to give it sufficient heft to build
its reserves by buying smaller players, and could also put it
on the radar screens of larger diversified players looking to
get into the suddenly hot metal.
But McDonald said the company is quite content to stay out
of the M&A game for the time being, and focus instead on
producing from its Thompson Creek mine in Idaho and its Endako
mine in British Columbia, and developing its high-grade
Davidson deposit, also located in British Columbia and set to
begin production next year.
"I think that's not where we're going to go," he said of
acquiring smaller players to bulk up reserves. The company also
has no plans to expand into other metals.
He noted that with no market in which to forward sell the
metal to lock in prices, the acquisition of additional
developments would force the company to bet heavily on spot
prices.
In terms of facing a bid from a larger player -- an issue
brought up at the company's annual meeting last week in the
wake of Blue Pearl's first-quarter profit of $47.7 million --
McDonald said the company is not seeking a partner. "But if it
happens, we'll cross that bridge when the time comes."
McDonald said he expects the price of molybdenum to rise, a
legacy of insufficient exploration in past years, and the
company has said its average realized price should stay above
$25 per pound in the second and third quarters of this year.
The company expects to apply for a listing on the New York
Stock Exchange later this year.
"The best defense is a good offense, and if we have a good
valuation on the company, then it will allow us to possibly
grow while it's still in our control," McDonald said.
($1=$1.11 Canadian)

[Firsteven]

Zitat: Doch noch ein Kommentar zu den wohl immer noch hohen Shortbeständen:

Angesichts der zuletzt hohen Shortbestände ist es für mich eigentlich unerklärlich, warum es heute und / oder am Freitag keine deutliche Aufwärtsbewegung oder gar einen Short-Squeeze gab.

Hierfür kann es verschiedene Ursachen geben. Entweder sind in den vergangenen Tagen schon massive Shorts gedeckt worden (was ich nicht glaube) oder aber die Shorter sind diejenigen, welche heute ihre Finger im Spiel hatten und die Eindeckungen kommen erst auf tieferem Niveau.

Meinungen ?


Hallo schnucksche,

ich verstehe nach wie vor nicht, wie ein informierter Marktteilnehmer auf den Gedanken kommen kann, TCM zu shorten. Da gäbe es wahrlich geeignetere Objekte dazu.
Aber anscheinend haben diese Leute ihr Gehirn abgeschaltet, das Risikobewustsein ausgeblendet und sehen nur den Chart einer Aktie die stark gestiegen ist. Nach der Logik, dass nach so einem Anstieg ein Absturz unvermeidlich ist, werden dann Aktien verkauft, die es gar nicht gibt, was das Zeug nur hält.

Vielleicht gelingt es mir auch nur unvollkommen, mich in die begrenzte Sicht eines durchschnittlichen Anlegers hinein zu denken, der anscheindend im Normalfall wirklich absolut keine Ahnung hat, in was für ein Unternehmen er investiert. Nur aus dieser Sicht heraus, dass die Mehrzahl der Anleger absolut uninformiert ist, ist diese Verunsicherung, selbst jetzt nach der Bekanntgabe dieser wirklich phantastischen Quartalszahlen zu verstehen.
Jede kleine Pommesbude, die Zahlen veröffentlicht, die deutlich besser sind, als die Analysten im Vorfeld berechnet haben, wird in den Himmel gekauft. Ein solides, großes, absolut unterbewertetes Minenunternehmen hingegen wird fallen gelassen, nur weil einige Shorties in die Offensive gehen.

Zu den aktuellen Börsengeschehnissen des heutigen Tages:
In Deutschland wurde deutlich über Pari gehandelt. Dies wäre die normale Reaktion auf die veröffentlichten Zahlen und in Toronto hätte ich eine Fortsetzung dieser Bewegung erwartet.
In Realität haben aber etwa 7 Adressen stark verkauft (extremes Ungleichgewicht zwischen Käufen und Verkäufen bei hoher Stückzahl) und viele Kleinanleger haben in diesem Sog ebenfalls geschmissen oder zumindest nicht gekauft. Dass genau am heutigen Tag mal wieder dieses durch Fakten nicht zu untermauernde Gespenst einer Rohstoffblase durch die Medien ging, hat die Lage wohl zusätzlich verschärft und zur Verunsicherung beigetragen. Kursrückgänge waren ja auf breiter Front im Rohstoffsektor zu sehen.

Nun ist es nicht sicher zu belegen, dass unter diesen heutigen Verkäufen auch eine größere Zahl von Leerverkäufen waren. Aus der Erfahrung der letzten Monate gehe ich jedoch davon aus, dass zumindest der Deckmantel "Anonymous" überwiegend für Leerverkäufe genutzt wurde.
TD SEC (oder der Käufer der dahintersteht) jedenfalls dürfte sich heute richtig gefreut haben, 690.000 Aktien zum wahren Ausverkaufspreis ergattert zu haben.

Meine Schätzungen über die Zahl der offenen Leerpositionen waren in den letzten Monaten regelmäßig zu niedrig. Vielleicht sollte ich hier mal ein wenig in die Offensive gehen, um die Realität besser zu prognostizieren. Aus dieser Sicht heraus rechne ich diesmal mit 5 Mio leerverkauften Aktien zum Stand von morgen (15. Mai). In wenigen Tagen werden wir klarer sehen.

Auch wenn es mich gewaltig wurmt, dass durch diese (leider und unverständlicherweise legalen) Machenschaften der Kurs von TCM immer wieder nach unten gezogen wird, und damit immer noch eine erhöhte Gefahr einer Übernahme besteht, so mache ich mir um die mittel- und langfristigen Aussichten der Aktie doch absolut keine Sorgen. Der nächste Kursschub nach oben ist abzusehen und wird dann eben umso heftiger.
Als kleines Bonbon betrachte ich die Aussicht, dass diese leerverkauften Aktien auch über kurz oder lang wieder zurückgekauft werden müssen.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Von einer Produktionsdrosselung kann ich absolut nichts erkennen. Vielmehr wurde zu Jahresbeginn in der Thompson-Creek-Mine der frühere Rhytmus 7 Tage Arbeit - 7 Tage Pause zunächst auf 10/4 heraufgefahren und seit Anfang April wird in Vollzeit gefördert. Es wird also getan, was nur möglich ist, um die Produktion oben zu halten.

Die Tatsache des Produktionsrückganges in 2007 wurde seit Herbst 2006 immer wieder erörtert, ist also alles andere als eine kurzfristige Reaktion auf irgendwelche Marktgeschehnisse.
Wer sich mit den Gegebenheiten einer Open-Pit-Mine auch nur ein ganz klein wenig auseinander gesetzt hat, und das zugehörige Schaubild der Präsentation angesehen hat, dem ist sofort klar, dass bei dem derzeit laufenden Übergang von der Abbauphase 5 in die Phase 6 riesige Mengen taubes Gestein beiseite geräumt werden müssen, um einen weiteren Teil des Erzkörpers mit höherer Konzentration freizulegen.
Diese "unproduktive" Arbeit bindet Gerätschaften und Arbeitskräfte, die dann für die eigentliche Produktion fehlen. Zudem hat wohl auch das derzeit noch zugängliche Erz einen etwas niedrigen Gehalt, was den Produktivausstoß weiter veringert.
Es wurde in den letzten 2-3 Jahren eben, um die hohen Molypreise zu nutzten, dort wo eine Wahlmöglichkeit bestand, bevorzugt das Erz mit höherer Konzentration abgebaut. Derzeit ist dann nur noch ein weniger wertvoller Anteil zugänglich.
Mir genau diesem Problem kämpfen ja weltweit auch viele andere Molyproduzenten, die auch starke Produktionsrückgänge vermeldet haben.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

Good bye, Blue Pearl

Blue Pearl - das strahlt Optimismus aus, positive Gefühle, gute Aussichten für die Zukunft. Ein perfekter Name für ein Unternehmen, das von Hoffnungen auf Erfolg, auf Erfolg in der Exploration lebt. Und es hat einen Hauch von Glamour, von Luxus, von etwas was man gerne hätte, aber das eigentlich zu extravagant ist.

Thompson Creek Metals - das ist kühl, sachlich, ernsthaft, seriös, geschäftsmäßig. Ein perfekter Name für ein Unternehmen, das Molybdän produziert und verkauft.

Seien wir mal ehrlich, es war eine wirklich schöne Zeit, in einen Exploerer investiert zu sein, der ein um ein vielfach größeres, produzierendes Minenunternehmen übernommen hat. Der Deal des Jahrzehnts. Aber genau diese Explorerzeit hängt uns inzwischen wie ein Klotz am Bein. Blue Pearl hat nach wie vor das "verruchte" Image eines Explorers. Es ist bis heute nicht gelungen, dies vollkommen abzuschütteln.
Und jeder Neuanleger, der sich nur mal flüchtig den Chart betrachtet, der wird sofort abgeschreckt von dem kometenhaften Anstieg des Kurses. Von 0,60 CAD auf 18 CAD in gerade mal 18 Monaten, von rund 7 CAD auf 18 CAD in gerade mal 3 Monaten, in so etwas investiert man doch nicht, der Absturz ist doch vorprogramiert.
Traurig aber wahr - Leistung scheint heute ein Makel zu sein. Es wird nicht vermutet, dass so ein Anstieg aufgrund von hervorragenden Fundamentaldaten erfolgt sein könnte, sondern es erzeugt Misstrauen wegen einer vermuteten Überbewertung.

Aus der Sicht des Unternehmens erfolgte die Umbenennung, da der Name Thompson Creek Metals in der Branche, bei den Kunden einen hervorragenden Ruf geniest, ein Inbegriff von Qualität ist. Mit diesem seriösen und bestens eingeführten Namen soll der wirtschaftliche Erfolg gefördert werden. Mangels Insiderwissen kann ich dies nicht selbst beurteilen, aber das Management wird wissen was es tut. Bisher wurden wir noch nie enttäuscht.

Insofern stehe ich dem Namenswechsel durchaus positiv gegenüber. Ein kleiner Nachteil für mich als "Auch"-Chartanalyst (wobei ich die Notwendigkeit sehe, die Fundamentaldaten in eine Analyse einzubeziehen) ist sicher, dass in den nächsten Tagen und Wochen die Möglichkeiten einer derartigen Analyse stark eingeschränkt sein werden. Der Chart von TCM beginnt eben erst am 15.5.2007. Dass die Aktie bereits zuvor, eigentlich nahtlos, als BLE gehandelt wurde, das sieht meine Chartsoftware nicht (oder ich habe diese selten gebrauchte Option zumindest nicht gefunden). Für 2-4 Wochen (je nachdem, welchen Zeitraum ein Indikator einbezieht) sind die Indikatoren nicht mehr zu ermitteln. Längerfristige Durchschnitte sind noch wesentlich länger lahmgelegt.
Als Langfrist-Investor sollte dies für mich (und viele andere hier im Thread) aber sicher kein echtes Problem darstellen. Vielleicht hat es sogar den positiven Nebeneffekt, dass wir für einige Zeit mit wortlos als Mahnung eingestellte Charts von Frankfurt verschont bleiben, und vielleicht auch mit Analysen, die nur dem Ziel dienen, die Anleger zu verunsichern.

Ein anderes, viel schwerwiegenderes Problem gibt es jedoch auch: Neue Anleger, die mit der Geschichte der Aktie (noch) nicht vertraut sind, werden den Hauptthread zu dem Unternehmen nicht mehr finden können. Wer nach Thompson Creek sucht, der wird wohl kaum Blue Pearl als Suchbegriff verwenden.
Es sollte also zeitnah ein Bündel neuer Threads eingerichtet werden, die den Namen Thompson Creek enthalten. Nach meiner Auffassung würde sich anbieten:
Thompson Creek Metals (ehemals Blue Pearl) - oder alternativ: Thompson Creek Metals - die blaue Molybdän-Perle
Bewertung von Thompson Creek Metals - der Molybdän-Producer
Thompson Creek Metals - Faktenübersicht in Kurzform
Thompson Creek Metals - Video- und Audio-Beiträge

Es würde sich anbieten, dass die Ersteller der bisherigen Threads auch den neuen mit der Thompson-Creek-Bezeichnung einrichten.
Da Little Norman für die Einrichtung des Hauptthreads wohl nicht mehr zur Verfügung steht, sollte diese Aufgabe ein anderer Übernehmen.
Sinnvollerweise sollten die Threads erst dann eingerichtet werden, wenn die neue WKN (zwecks Zuordnung) zur Verfügung steht.
Als allererstes Posting im neuen Thread wäre ein kurzer Hinweis mit Link auf den zugehörigen Blue-Pearl-Thread sicher hilfreich.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[schnucksche]

Die neue WKN für Thomson Creel Metals in Deutschland lautet:


A0MR6Q

[Firsteven]

By Cameron French
TORONTO, May 14 (Reuters) - Blue Pearl Mining is
changing its name and plans to apply for a U.S. stock listing
later this year, but the high-flying molybdenum producer isn't
anxious to join the flurry of corporate takeovers in the mining
sector.
The company will begin trading as Thompson Creek Metals
under the symbol on Tuesday, adopting the name of the
company Blue Pearl bought last year, an acquisition that
allowed it to join the upper ranks of molybdenum producers.
"In the industry, Thompson Creek is well known and has a
serious brand as a supplier of premium product," executive
chairman Ian McDonald told Reuters.
"In fact, we normally get a small premium to the spot price
because of the product."
Billed as the world's largest publicly traded, pure-play
molybdenum producer, Blue Pearl's stock has jumped 25-fold
since the beginning of 2006 as investors have taken a shine to
the metal, which is used primarily as a hardening agent in the
production of stainless steel.
With a price of C$17.52 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on
Monday, the company now boasts a market capitalization of more
than C$2 billion.
That level would seem to give it sufficient heft to build
its reserves by buying smaller players, and could also put it
on the radar screens of larger diversified players looking to
get into the suddenly hot metal.
But McDonald said the company is quite content to stay out
of the M&A game for the time being, and focus instead on
producing from its Thompson Creek mine in Idaho and its Endako
mine in British Columbia, and developing its high-grade
Davidson deposit, also located in British Columbia and set to
begin production next year.
"I think that's not where we're going to go," he said of
acquiring smaller players to bulk up reserves. The company also
has no plans to expand into other metals.
He noted that with no market in which to forward sell the
metal to lock in prices, the acquisition of additional
developments would force the company to bet heavily on spot
prices.
In terms of facing a bid from a larger player -- an issue
brought up at the company's annual meeting last week in the
wake of Blue Pearl's first-quarter profit of $47.7 million --
McDonald said the company is not seeking a partner. "But if it
happens, we'll cross that bridge when the time comes."
McDonald said he expects the price of molybdenum to rise, a
legacy of insufficient exploration in past years, and the
company has said its average realized price should stay above
$25 per pound in the second and third quarters of this year.
The company expects to apply for a listing on the New York
Stock Exchange later this year.
"The best defense is a good offense, and if we have a good
valuation on the company, then it will allow us to possibly
grow while it's still in our control," McDonald said.
($1=$1.11 Canadian)

[Firsteven]

ich habe eben auch mal bei der Hüst (handelsüberwachungsstelle) angerufen. hier die tel.: [phone] ist kostenfrei.

also die info die ich bekommen habe. sie haben im mom technische schwierigkeiten die neu WKN einzuspeisen. sie denken das es erst wieder zu morgen früh handelbar ist. hoffen aber das sie es bis zum start canada noch hinbekommen.



hier ist auch noch die neue WKN: A0MR6Q

[beautifulmind]

http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/byprov_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/byprovx_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/bysnrjnr_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/bycmdty_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/trade/coal_st1-4.htm

[beautifulmind]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.343.630 von beautifulmind am 16.05.07 14:33:45

http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/byprov_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/byprovx_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/bysnrjnr_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/exploration/bycmdty_e.htm
http://mmsd1.mms.nrcan.gc.ca/mmsd/trade/coal_st1-4.htm

[beautifulmind]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.343.740 von beautifulmind am 16.05.07 14:40:17

[schnucksche]

Ryan's Notes: May 16/07

Few sales, but Higher Mo Prices
Moly prices continued to hold strong this week even though there was little consumer business reported. Chinese suppliers reportedly have raised their oxide prices to $32 per lb, and traders say they have purchased briquettes at above $32. FeMo sales were booked at $78 per kg, traders said, and prices for duty-paid Chinese FeMo jumped to $77.

[betzo]

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1531845.html

14.05.2007
Blue Pearl Mining "buy," target price raised

Monday, May 14, 2007 10:23:25 AM ET
UBS

NEW YORK, May 14 (newratings.com) - Analysts at UBS maintain their "buy" rating on Blue Pearl Mining Ltd (ticker: A6R), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from C$19.5 to C$20.5.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its 1Q diluted EPS ahead of the estimates. Blue Pearl Mining ended the quarter with healthy cash and debt of $114.5 million and $319.3 million, respectively, UBS adds. The moly prices are likely to remain favourable in the forthcoming couple of years, the analysts say. The EPS estimates for 2Q, 3Q, 2007 and 2008 have been raised from $0.28 to $0.37, from $0.25 to $0.34, from $1.33 to $1.47 and from $2.13 to $2.20, respectively.

[Firsteven]

What's left to be taken private?
Visit to B.C. a tour of private equity, merger world

Peter Hodson, Financial Post
Published: Thursday, May 17, 2007

Last week I spent some time in British Columbia. I stayed at a nice hotel, went skiing, had a coffee, went shopping, had a beer or two, and went to the casino, made a few phone calls. It was fun. There was some work involved, too.

Why am I telling you my recent travel log? Well, at the end of the week it occurred to me: It was, effectively, a tour of the private equity and merger world: - Accommodation: I stayed at the Four Seasons, now owned by a group of private investors, Bill Gates being one of them; - Skiing: Whistler, formerly owned by Intrawest, is now owned by hedge fund Fortress Investment Group; - Coffee: Van Houtte Inc. is a coffee company about to be privatized by LittleJohn & Co.; - Gambling: Gateway Casinos Income Fund is in the process of being privatized by New World Gaming Partners Ltd.; - Shopping: Hudson's Bay, acquired by Maple Leaf Heritage Investment; - Beers: I only had two, but does it matter? You name the brand, it is private or about to be, whether it was Labatt (years ago privatized), Sleeman (acquired by Sappuro last year), Lakeport (recently acquired by InBev) or Brick Brewing (which put itself up for sale on Monday). - Phone calls: Who would have thought BCE Inc. could have even possibly been in the privatization game?

There has already been a record $2-trillion in global deals so far this year. In the merger and privatization world, in fact, April was the biggest month ever. At this rate, you may not recognize the TSX index in a couple of years.


Email to a friend

Printer friendly
Font: ****I have more than a couple of observations about the M&A and privatization boom.

First, it is being fueled by extremely easy access to capital. There is a glut of liquidity worldwide, and buyers can borrow almost any amount of capital, at very attractive long-term rates. Credit and credit risk, in my opinion are not being priced properly, and until that changes, the merger boom will likely continue. With recent weakness in the U.S., an uptick in interest rates may not be in the cards anytime soon, further extending the trend.

Another factor fueling the boom is that equity market participants are thinking too short term, whereas corporate and private equity buyers are thinking, if not long-term, then at least medium term. This is most striking, of course, in the resource sector, where the M&A frenzy has truly been heating up. The market continues to price the shares of resource companies as if the world is already in the middle of a sharp recession, whereas most commodity prices are simply not reflecting this.

Nickel prices continue to hit record highs, which explains why most nickel companies in Canada have already been bought, or are in the midst of being taken over.

Corporate buyers think differently than the equity market. Xstrata PLC is going to be in the mining business forever, so why wouldn't it pay six times earnings for LionOre Mining, considering its long-term focus and higher valuation?

Or, consider Quadra Mining, which at four times earnings trades at about half the valuation of Teck Cominco. Is it any wonder Quadra put a shareholders' rights plan in place a month ago? Or China Molybdenum, trading at 28 times earnings, while producer Thompson Creek Metals hovers around 10 times earnings.

Either the market reprices equities in this space, or companies will continue to be bought. These ratios are all from Bloomberg, and exclude cash, which raises another point:Most companies in the resource sector are sitting on cash, and generating more cash each day. For corporate buyers, that cash reduces the cost of any takeover, and every day that goes by reduces the risk of a transaction because of the incremental cash generated by the target.

A new trend emerging in buyouts recently could add fuel to the fire. In late April, audio equipment maker Harman International Industries Inc. agreed to be acquired by KKR and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for about $8-billion. As part of the deal, KKR and Goldman are offering Harman shareholders shares in the new private company. The stub equity could be as much as 27% of the company, and would allow shareholders to profit from future events at private-Harman.

Think about the implications of this, apparently the first time investors have been given the option of private shares in a large takeover. If KKR and Goldman can issue paper in their takeovers, then their leverage has just increased substantially. They no longer need a full $8-billion to take Harman over, and the equity freed up can be re-levered and used to buy something else.

We will know in a few months if this deal flies. If it does -- watch out! If buyout companies start throwing paper around instead of cash, then it is likely that no company will be safe from a potential buyout.

What ends this party? I can't tell you, as it will likely be an external exogenous event. Some investors I talk to say the privatization game will end when there is a large, "bad" deal. That may be, but if so it is likely years away.

Any buyout today, considering valuations and cash levels, is unlikely to be a complete disaster. Even if it is, the private equity group will do what it can to restructure the asset, divest divisions or re-float the company. If all of that is unsuccessful and it truly is a bad deal, it is the banks and the investment dealers that will ultimately take the hit.

Considering the skill and maneuverability of the private equity groups, the time lag between a "bad" deal and the ultimate economic response to a bad deal could be several years. In the meantime, the buying will likely continue.

[e-mail]

- - - - Peter Hodson is a senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.




© National Post 2007

[pasquale22]

Bin gerade auf diesen interessanten Bewertungsansatz gestoßen. Finanzmathematisches NPV-Verfahren.
http://www.ariva.de/Blue_Pearl_Mining_Stairway_to_Heaven_t28…

[Der.Papst]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.364.336 von pasquale22 am 17.05.07 21:54:27

wow, hätte nicht gedacht, dass wir noch ins Plus drehen

aus Ariva

[Der.Papst]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.364.378 von Der.Papst am 17.05.07 21:57:44

Nutzungsdauer Endako 7 Jahre?
Ich glaube da hat Feuerblume aber gepennt

[Firsteven]

2007 Stock Market Holidays - Stock Markets Closed

* New Year's Day - January 1, 2007
* Good Friday - April 6, 2007
* Victoria Day - May 21, 2007
* Canada Day - July 2, 2007 (for July 1 holiday)
* Civic Day - August 6, 2007
* Labour Day - September 3, 2007
* Thanksgiving Day - October 8, 2007
* Christmas Day - December 25, 2007
* Boxing Day - December 26, 2007

[Firsteven]

Ist das die Wende?

Der heutige Tag schloß mit einem sogenannten Hammer, einer Kerze mit sehr kurzem Körper, ohne oberen Schatten und mit sehr langem unteren Schatten.
In der Candlestick-Analyse gilt eine solche Kerze am unteren Ende einer Abwärtsbewegung als starkes Umkehrsignal.
Zudem ist der Kurs heute Intraday an der Unterstützung abgeprallt, den das Gap vom 13./16. April bildet, und der Kurs konnte 2 Mal die Unterstützung, welche die untere Linie des Bollinger-Bandes bildet, nicht nachhaltig durchbrechen.

Wenn wir die Konsolidierung seit 26.4. als a-b-c-Bewegung der Eliott-Wellentheorie auffassen, dann ist die c-Welle zwar etwas kurz, könnte aber mit dem heutigen Tag durchaus ihren Abschluß finden.

All das ist leider kein Beweis für eine Umkehr, gibt aber zumindest etwas Hoffnung.
Interessant ist in diesem Zusammenhang ganz sicher, dass sowohl gestern als auch heute in den letzten Handelsminuten der Kurs massiv nach oben gekauft wurde. Irgend jemand mit entsprechender Kapitalausstattung hat also ein Interesse, den Kurs zu stützen und insbesondere den Schlußkurs besser aussehen zu lassen.

chartex

[schnucksche]

Hallo,

ich weiß nicht, ob die Info zu der Frage, die gestern diskutiert wurde (News - Befreiung von Auflagen der TSX) schon geklärt ist, weil ichnicht die ganze Zeit mitgelesen habe.

Für den Fall, dass dies noch nicht geschehen ist, hier die offizielle Antwort von Wayne:

Hi XXX,



Please excuse my late reply. I was traveling with no email access.



I checked with our lawyers. This is a technical matter. As I understand it, the Company has reached a higher level at the TSX and that means we don't have to file as many forms as before. That's all. It has no impact on investors.



Regards,

Wayne Cheveldayoff

[eifelcash]

Neuer Fond der in unterbewertete Minenunternehmen, unter anderem auch im Molybereich investiert.

Gruß,

eifelcash

Sentry Select see market in primary metals

http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle.aspx?VersionID=92…

Published: 07:00 Friday 18 May 2007
By: Dylan Lobo, Assistant Editor, Citywire Funds Insider

A new closed-ended metals fund from Canadian-based Sentry Select Capital will look to exploit growing demand for uranium, nickel and molybdenum in developed and developing economies.

The Sentry Select Primary Metals fund will launch towards the end of June and will be listed in Toronto but is being marketed to the UK.

It will focus on issuers engaged in the production and exploration of the metals.
Kevin MacLean, who has over 27 years’ experience in the resources sector, will manage the fund and will be assisted by Laura Lau.

The duo will use a combination of top-down and value-driven bottom-up analysis to identify opportunities.

They will focus on equities with high cashflow and free cashflow yields on invested capital and firms on a low net asset value, based on below market metal price assumptions.

They will also target undervalued metal and mineral deposits, which are expected to grow in value as they advance to production.

Sentry head of sales, David Billyard, said: ‘We believe uranium, nickel and molybdenum securities are undervalued, as the market continues to use low historical prices to value companies and exploration. Production growth potential is not reflected in current valuations.’

Sentry believes demand for uranium is set to increase due to the expected rise in world net electricity demand and a growing need for alternative energy sources.

Billyard said: ‘High crude oil prices have led many governments to consider alternative sources of energy and increasing concern over carbon emissions and global warming has led to a reappraisal of the environmental benefits of nuclear power.’

The trust carries a 1.6% annual fee along with a 20% performance fee for the first 12 months, which will fall to 10% every year thereafter.

Assets in the fund will be capped at Canadian $175 million (£80.3 million) and the group already has a pipeline of interest worth $50 million.

[schnucksche]

Sorry, nochmals deutlicher:

Lead LME 3-month +0.00 0.95/lb
Coal Big Sandy +1.00 43.50/tonne
Aluminium LME -0.00 1.29/lb
Copper COMEX -0.10 3.12/lb
Uranium NYMEX &n! bsp;&nbs p; +2.90 132.90/lb
Molybdenum Oxide +1.25 31.75/lb
Cobalt Spot -0.25 29.50/lb
Titanium Unprocessed +0.00 2.97/lb

[schnucksche]

Volume 13, No. 21 May 21, 2007

FERROALLOYS

Ryan's Notes

More Moly Business, Higher Prices

Significant moly consumer businesses in the US and Europe

last week showed that trader comments about tight market

conditions are more than just talk. Each reported sale was

followed by a higher-priced transaction. At the start of the

week, inter-trade briquette sales were done in Europe at $32

per lb. Chinese suppliers raised their oxide prices first to $32,

then to $32.50 and finally to $33-34. Later, traders said they

had sold briquettes to European consumers at over $33,

although it was difficult to confirm any sales over $32.50.

European mills made ferromoly purchases at $77.50-78 per

kg. One German mill, however, reportedly bought a truckload

of FeMo at just under $77.

Amajor US mill was able to buy four trucks of moly oxide

for June/July at under $31.50 per lb, sources reported. It is

believed that the purchase price for two trucks was in the low

$31s; the other two trucks are thought to have sold for closer

to $31.50. At the same time, traders who bid unsuccessfully

for the business said they had made oxide sales to other

consumers for June at well over $32.50. The US mill reportedly

also bought six truckloads of FeMo for June/July at

prices on either side of $36 per lb.

The US tender was being carefully monitored because so

few suppliers were able to offer material. Several producers

had to no-quote on the ferromoly, and many traders admitted

that they had submitted sky-high bids because of concerns

about securing material.

The rumor mill has been making the market even more jittery.

Predictions of the date on which the Chinese government

will increase the export taxes on ferromoly and moly

oxide exports continue to be revised, with the latest guess

being that the taxes could be raised from 10% to 15% or 20%

on May 20. Some traders said they were receiving many

offers of FeMo and oxide from Chinese suppliers, while

other traders said the Chinese were not active sellers.

Chinese FeMo prices were $74-75 per kg last week.

A source at Climax denied that there have been any production

problems. The company is meeting its customer

commitments, the source said. Some sellers have assumed

that Climax's production is less than planned because of an

increase in inquiries from consumers that usually rely on

Climax. "Demand is really strong, and many customers are

asking for more than their contracted amounts," said a trader.

He added, "Producer inventories are low, but this doesn't

mean they are having production problems."

[Firsteven]

Die Shortzahlen per 15.5.2007 sind da. Ich denke allerdings, diese Zahlen sind interpretationsbedürftig.

Anzahl der leerverkauften TCM-Aktien zum 15.5.2007: 1,198,102

Ich interpretiere diese Zahl so, dass am Tag der Namensänderung an der Börse, also am Dienstag den 15.5.2007 diese 1,198,102 Aktien leerverkauft wurden. Dies mag angesichts eines Gesamt-Handelsvolumens von rund 2,477 Mio Aktien zunächst erstaunen, findet in meinen Augen aber eine gute Erklärung:

Im Stockhouse-Board hat sich kürzlich ein Anleger beklagt, dass er keinen Zugriff auf seine Aktien mehr hat und diese nicht verkaufen kann. Diese Situation ist uns aus Deutschland sehr gut bekannt und ich glaube, dass es auch in Kanada das gleiche Problem gibt, dass die neuen Aktien noch nicht "geliefert" wurden (jedenfalls nicht am Dienstag).
Aufgrund der Gepflogenheiten können sich die dortigen Anleger aber sehr viel einfacher helfen, als dies bei den meisten Anlegern in Deutschland möglich ist:

Die Anleger tätigen einfach Leerverkäufe !!!!

Sie gehen dabei absolut kein Risiko ein, solange sie nicht mehr TCM-Aktien verkaufen, als sie BLE-Aktien im Depot haben. Die BLE-Aktien werden ja in den nächsten Tagen in TCM-Aktien umgetauscht und die Leerverkäufe somit glattgestellt.

Diesen Ratschlag mit dem Leerverkauf hat der Anleger im Stockhouse-Board jedenfalls bekommen, um wieder handlungsfähig zu werden. Gegebenenfalls müsse er eben bei seinem Broker nachhaken, um diese Leerverkäufe genehmigt zu bekommen.

Wenn ich also von 2,477 Mio gehandelten Aktien ausgehe, und unterstelle, dass durch Daytrader das Handelsvolumen auf mindestens das doppelte aufgebläht wurde, so ergibt sich ein stimmiges Bild.

Die heute gelistete Zahl von Leerverkäufen hat also leider absolut keinerlei Aussagekraft. Obendrein wurden wohl auch die unter dem Kürzel BLE leerverkauften Aktien bei dieser Angabe nicht berücksichtigt. Von diesen Aktien muss auch noch eine gehörige Zahl offen sein.

Möglich ist dieses ganze Spiel (in diesem speziellen Fall ohne negativen Beiklang) dadurch, dass in Kanada "naked short" möglich ist, also das verkaufen von Aktien, die nicht vorhanden sind. Theoretisch müssten solche nakten Verkäufe innerhalb von 3 Tagen gedeckt werden, praktisch findet oft genug ein reihum verleihen der Broker untereinander statt (auch wenn vermutlich keine einzige Aktie im Markt vorhanden ist).

Ich bitte ausdrücklich um Diskussion zu diesem Versuch einer Erklärung.

Viele Grüsse

chartex

[Firsteven]

geniales Posting von therefore zur Moly-Preis-Entwicklung!!!


Hallo Leute,

dieses Woche gab es einige Berichte über die boomende Weltwirtschaft und den Stahlmarkt.

Man erwartet, trotz dem schwachen Wachstum in den USA und in Europa, ein Weltwirtschaftswachstum von 6%, nach vorherigen Prognosen ging man von 4 bis 4,5% Wachstum aus.

Entsprechend wurden auch die Prognosen für den Stahlmarkt, insbesondere dem Edelstahlmarkt, hochgesetzt.

So schön auch die höheren Preise in Ryan's notes sind, viel wichtiger ist der darin enthaltene Ausblick.

The rumor mill has been making the market even more jittery.
Predictions of the date on which the Chinese government
will increase the export taxes on ferromoly and moly
oxide exports continue to be revised, with the latest guess
being that the taxes could be raised from 10% to 15% or 20%
on May 20.

IMOA erwartet seit Wochen die Erhöhung der export taxes auf 20%. Nun wird zum ersten Mal ein fester Termin dafür genannt. Nun wissen wir auch, warum erste FeMo-Geschäfte mit 36 USD durchgeführt wurden. Meine Vermutung, dass FeMo im Mai noch über 40 USD gehen wird, erhält neue Nahrung.

Auf meine Frage, wie die Mengenaufteilung im Verkauf bei den einzelnen Moly-Produkten bei TCM ist, erhielt ich die Aussage, dass TCM sowas nicht kommuniziert. Schade.

Zu der Nachhaltigkeit des Preises:
In 2004 und 2005 ging der Preis schon einmal über die 40 USD, um dann wieder auf 20 USD abzufallen.

Nur durch diesen kurzfristigen Rücksetzer konnte Ian mit seiner Bande TC so günstig erwerben. Mein Dank dafür geht an die Kupferproduzenten. Warum?

Auf einmal war es möglich den niedrigen Molybdänanteil gewinnbringend zu verkaufen. Was haben die Leute jetzt getan?

Sofort wurden die Abbaupläne so verändert, dass molybdänhaltige Erzbereiche abgebaut werden konnten.

Dadurch wuchs das Angebot an Molybdän wieder und der Preis legte eine Verschnaufspause ein. Zum Glück für uns alle, nur dadurch ist dieses kommende Jahrhundertinvest in TCM (BPM) überhaupt möglich geworden.

Diese Bereiche sind aber jetzt weitestgehend abgebaut. Nun werden die Bereiche mit Gold und/oder anderen Rohstoffen ausgebeutet. Gut für uns und den Molypreis.

Neue Explorer sind zwar in Arbeit, aber vor 2010 ist mit nennenswerrten Zusatzmengen überhaupt nicht zu rechnen.

Der Bedarf wächst aber dramatisch und die Zuwachsraten an Moly steigen, obwohl die Ausgangsbasis schon deutlich erhöht ist.

China hat zum Jahresanfang angekündigt, dass die Qualität ihrer Stahlprodukte weiterhin deutlich erhöht wird. Schon im letzten Jahr hatte China 20% mehr Molybdän benötigt.

Da aber China im Verhältnis zur Stahlproduktion weniger Molybdän verbrauchte, als andere Staaten, ist hier mit einer weiter steigenden Rate zu rechnen. Ich kalkuliere für die nächsten jahre mit einer noch höheren Steigerungsrate, wiederum bei einer höheren Ausgangsbasis.

Zusätzlich gibt es den weltweiten Strukturwandel hin zu mehr molybdänhaltigen Stählen.

Wer nun in der Grundschule aufgepasst hat, der kann sich jetzt ausrechnen, wie lange der hohe Preis bei Molybdän noch anhalten wird und wohin der Preis noch gehen kann. Bei Molybdän kann man nicht einfach ein paar alte Raketen auseinanderbauen und damit das Defizit ausgleichen.

Nun versteht man auch die Chinesen. Erstmal sehen, dass das teuere Gut im Lande bleibt. Wenn dann noch etwas übrig ist, dann aber bitte soll das Land auch etwas davon haben.

Ich persönlich gehe von steigenden Preisen bis mindestens in die Jahre 2010 und 2011 aus.

Bei dem Wettlauf um die Kapazitätserweiterungen im Molymarkt stehen wir bei unserem TCM-Invest wiederum auf der Sonnenseite.

Was denkt ihr, wer wird die besten Ingenieure und Minenarbeiter verpflichten können? Eine bekannte Firma oder irgend welche Newcomer?

Wer denkt ihr wird beim Equipment zuerst beliefert. Eine bekannte Firma oder irgend welche Newcomer?

Es sieht einfach nur gut aus.

Sollte es in den nächsten Wochen zu Shortattacken kommen, einfach nur die Weltkonjunktur und den Molybdänpreis beobachten.

Irgend wann kommen die Analysten auch an die Grundschulweisheiten. Dauert zwar aber etwas länger, aber wenn die dies dann verstanden haben, dann geht die Post ab.

therefore

[Firsteven]

China to Further Increase Ferroalloy, Tungsten Export Tax

By Interfax-China
18 May 2007 at 08:41 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- The Chinese government intends to further increase the export tax on ferroalloy products in the near future , as part of measures to control overcapacity and hasten the elimination of outdated capacity, a governmental official told Interfax yesterday.

An official with the National Development and Reform Commission, who asked to remain anonymous, said the policy was in the final stages of preparation and most ferroalloy product export taxes would be increased from current 10% levels.

The export of ferroalloy products including ferromanganese, ferrosilicon, ferrochromium, ferronickel, ferromolybdenum and ferrotungsten, has been levied at 10% since Nov. 1, 2006.

He stressed that although the policy would be released very soon, a final issue date had not yet been decided.

The market rumour is that the export tax on silicon-manganese will be raised to 15%, while that of electrolytic manganese will be raised to as much as 30%. Silicon-Manganese FOB prices have experienced constant growth since the beginning of March this year, as a result of the market rumour.

The FOB price for silicon-manganese (Mn65Si17) soared to between $1,300 and $1,400 per tonne in China's major ports yesterday, up between 76% and 84% from between $740 and $760 per tonne at the beginning of March.

Although the official refused to comment on this rumour, he emphasized that the government was determined to substantially reduce outdated capacity and curb the current trade surplus through this round of export tax increases.

China's ferroalloy industry is facing severe problems from overcapacity, heavy pollution and out-of-date technology. There are a current total of 1,570 ferroalloy producers in China, capable of producing a combined 22.13 million tonnes of ferroalloy per year. However, only 48% of capacity is currently under operation.

The Chinese government aims to reduce domestic ferroalloy capacity to 17 million tonnes by 2010, down 25% from 2005.

The domestic ferroalloy industry has been recovering from losses since the beginning of this year, caused by the steady rise in downstream steel product prices in the domestic market.

"We've seen significant growth in ferroalloy purchases from steel mills since the Spring Festival. The low stockpiles of manganese ferroalloy products, including silicon manganese and ferromanganese and a tight manganese ore supply, have resulted in rising prices that are expected to continue for the near future," said Wang Xin, an analyst with Custeel, a consultancy affiliated with the China Iron and Steel Association.

Wang said the policy would be released at latest before the end of June, since exports of some types of ferroalloy including ferrosilicon and ferrotungsten saw unexpected high in the first three months, which has stirred up much concern among the central government.

In the first quarter, China exported 1,558 tonnes ferrotungsten, up 16.5% from the same period of last year.

China has charged much higher power prices to outdated ferroalloy mills this year, resulting in higher production cost and increased ferroalloy product prices, she added.

The price of silicon-manganese (Mn65Si17) was RMB 9,300 ($1,211.17) per tonne in China's southwestern regions yesterday. Ferrosilicon was RMB 5,750 ($748.84) per tonne in the northwestern market and ferrotitanium (Ti30) was RMB 13,500 ($1,758.16) per tonne in the northeastern market, according to Shanghai Mysteel.

Wang commented that the new export tax policy would dramatically reduce ferroalloy industry profits and make many small enterprises reluctant to export.

"For example, based on current prices, the export cost of ferrosilicon will increase $40 to $50 per a tonne if the export tax is raised just 5 percentage points," Wang said.

Tungsten

China will further increase the export tax on tungsten products in June in an aim to combat illegal mining and protect scarce mineral resource, an analyst told Interfax today.

China is likely to increase the export tax on ammonium paratungstate (APT), tungsten oxide, tungsten powder and unwrought tungsten products from a current 5% to 10% and increase the tax on ferrotungsten exports from a current 10% to 15%, said Yang Zhaohui, an analyst with Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd., a leading consultancy affiliated with the semi-governmental China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

Yang added that the government is likely to announce tungsten export tax policies in conjunction with ferroalloy export tax policies.

China is the world's largest tungsten producer and exporter, exporting 5,955.1 tonnes of tungsten products in the first quarter of the year, down 6.4% year-on-year. Exports of tungsten acid, ammonium metatungstate and ferrotungsten increased 182.2%, 71.8% and 16.5% respectively, from the same period of last year, according to statistics released by the China Tungsten Industry Association.

Yang attributed lower tungsten product export levels to China's restrictive export policies. China imposed export taxes varying from 5% to 15% on primary tungsten products on Jan. 1 this year, including APT, tungsten carbonate, tungsten powder, ferrotungsten and scrap tungsten.

The government has also cancelled export tax rebates on tungsten products and banned tungsten concentrate tolling.

Yang commented that domestic tungsten concentrate prices would remain relatively stable in June and July, despite market expectations that China will further increase tungsten export taxes.

The price of Chinese tungsten remained at between RMB 95,000 ($12,389.96) and RMB 105,000 ($13,694.16) per tonne in the first four months of the year, according to information provided by the Jiangxi Nonferrous Metals Industry Administration Bureau.

"June and July are traditionally sluggish months in terms of tungsten consumption in both the domestic and international market. Furthermore, Chinese tungsten miners and processors are maturing in their ability to adjust production to market needs, suggesting that the market will balance even if consumption slows," he explained.

China produced 17,059 tonnes of tungsten concentrate in the first three months this year, down 4.87% from the same period last year. Tungsten concentrate imports were down 18.9% from the same period last year to 1,112.8 tonnes.

© Interfax-China 2007.

This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail [e-mail].

[Firsteven]

http://www.largoresources.com/pdf/largo_letter.pdf


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marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
May 2007 Letter
World production of crude steel in March was 110.9 million tonnes, according to the
International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI). This level exceeds March 2006 by 8.6 percent.
Production in the first three months was 318.3 million tons – 10.2 percent ahead of the same
period last year. Country totals are shown in the table below.
2007 WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION
March January--March
Million
tonnes
07 vs.
06 (%)
Million
tonnes
07 vs.
06 (%)
Asia 60.724 15.4 173.572 16.3
China 40.157 20.4 114.704 22.3
Japan 10.528 6.0 29.528 5.4
EU (27) 18.760 1.5 53.746 5.2
CIS 10.681 8.6 30.998 9.7
N. America 10.412 -11.3 30.515 -7.6
USA 7.800 -12.0 22.976 -6.9
S. America 4.078 9.0 11.531 7.4
Africa 1.593 12.2 4.676 10.0
Middle East 1.310 7.0 3.793 3.6
World 110.920 8.6 318.317 10.2
These numbers remain exceptionally strong, and ahead of most forecasts. China has from
time to time talked about shutting in about 100 million tons of antiquated steelmaking
capacity, but demand is so strong they keep it on line.
IISI is forecasting that world steel demand will grow 5.9 percent in 2007 and 6.1 percent in
2008. At the current rate, these forecasts now seem overly conservative.
Beijing is planning to once again revise export taxes on a number of ferroalloys, and the
Chinese market remains unsettled as players try to sort it all out.
Some reports have the ferromolybdenum export tax going to 15–20 percent from 10 percent.
Blue tungsten oxide may also be affected this time, at least with a cancellation of the 5
percent export tax rebate. There are also rumors that Beijing is considering adjusting the tax
on vanadium and molybdenum metal products, and vanadium pentoxide.
Lately, Beijing has been frequently seen to adjust raw materials export taxes to subsidize
domestic steel production. The net effect is reduced supply of the additives to the western
market.
Ferrous scrap is strong, and in April made its largest one-month move since September
2005.
Vanadium
Russian steelmaker Evraz got the final thumbs up from the Competition Tribunal to buy a
controlling stake in Highveld Steel and Vanadium from Anglo American. Approval was
2
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
conditional on the bulk of Highveld's vanadium interests – the Mapochs mine and Vanchem
plants – being sold off. Evraz is "very bullish" about South Africa's steel and vanadium
business; it supported Highveld's plans to raise steel output 20 percent to 1.2 million tons by
2009 at a cost of more than R1 billion.
China could remove the 5 percent export tax rebate on vanadium pentoxide (V2O5 ) this
month and also impose a 10 percent duty on V2O5 exports, sources speculate. Chinese
export prices have been pressured by strong demand in recent weeks, rising to $8-8.20 per
pound FOB. Chinese exports of V2O5 more than doubled in the first two months of 2007,
rising to 2,646 tonnes compared to 1,227 tonnes in the same two months of 2006.
Ferrocolumbium is still a key substitute for ferrovanadium (FeV) in China, industry officials
told participants at a recent ferroalloys conference in Hong Kong. China has been importing
more ferrocolumbium than ferrovanadium in recent years. It was estimated that substitution
to the detriment of FeV was 8,200 tonnes in 2006.
Recently, however, Chinese steel producers are buying more ferrovanadium than
ferrocolumbium (ferroniobium) due to the relatively cheaper price. U.S. consumers are also
switching back to ferrovanadium from ferrocolumbium as prices of the latter have doubled.
Two years ago, when ferrovanadium prices reached $60 per pound, consumers turned to
ferrocolumbium, but now the trend is reversing. In response, ferrovanadium has risen from a
low of $14.00–14.50 per pound, delivered, in late January, to about $20 per pound now.
Current reported vanadium pricing is shown in the tables below.
Reuters: Vanadium April 30 March 30
Vanadium Ferro 80 pct WESTERN ($ / kg) 41.00 39.50
Vanadium Pentoxide S.AFRICA/CHINA ($ / lb) 7.50 7.50
Metal Bulletin: Vanadium May 1 March 30
Ferro-vanadium basis 70-80% V major
European destinations ($ / kg V) 39.00 – 41.50 40.00 – 42.00
Ferro-vanadium US free market 70-80% V
in warehouse, Pittsburgh ($ / lb) 19.00 – 21.00 19.00 – 21.00
The Minor Metals Trade Association is preparing to launch new contract specifications for a
number of minor metals such as vanadium pentoxide in powder and flake form, and also for
ammonium paratungstate (APT) and nine rare earths, as it expands the range of services it
offers members.
Tungsten
Lightbulbs, or more precisely their potential substitution by compact fluorescent lightbulbs
(CFLs), took the headlines this month. Interestingly, even though future restricted usage has
been reported for more than a year, and numerous jurisdictions have already promulgated
bans (Europe - 2009; Australia - 2010; the U.K. – 2011, and California – 2012, for example),
3
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
it was Ontario’s 2012 ban that set off the alarms: The Chatham Daily news figured that
tungsten share prices dropped 9 percent the day after the Ontario announcement.
But just like a microwave dinner, the compact fluorescent lightbulb may not be as good as it
looks on the box:
A major drawback has been highlighted in a study just published in Silicon Chip, an
Australian electronics journal. The study reports: "If you have a CFL in the same room as
your television or hi-fi system, the infrared remote control may not work at all. Its signal will
be completely blanketed by the modulated infrared from the CFL."
CFL makers acknowledged the problem, although Philips claimed the fault had now been
remedied with its products. General Electric admitted some CFLs could interfere with signals
but said it was "rare".
One consumer was quoted as saying, "Now every time I need to change the channel I pull
the plug on the lamp."
Beyond this, early adopters of the CFL technology are finding that the bulb’s lifespan under
normal use isn’t as advertised, and that the return policy is a nightmare – through a call
centre rather than the local retailer. And, because of the slow warm-up, people are leaving
the bulbs on for extended periods just to avoid the inconvenience of waiting – thus defeating
the advertised energy savings.
Wal-Mart may well be planning to sell 100 million CFLs (Globe & Mail), but there could be a
lot of dissatisfied customers.
At White Sands, New Mexico, the U.S. Air Force has successfully tested the Massive
Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), its latest “bunker buster” with just about 30,000 pounds of steel
and explosive. The MOP will pack more than 10 times the explosive punch of the BLU-109,
today's bunker-busting workhorse. Optimum penetrating distance is classified, but some
analysts say it is as much as 200 feet – through reinforced concrete and soil or sand. It is
designed to "overwhelm target characterization uncertainties," according to program officials.
The MOP uses a newly patented steel containing about 3 percent tungsten. Two of them
would use the same amount of tungsten as a million lightbulbs – just to put everything in
perspective. Right now they are being fitted to B-2 and B-52 bombers.
Noritake, the leading producer of tabletop china, and a plethora of other ceramic products
and processes, has designed a furnace to melt scrap silicon and produce purer polycrystal
silicon. This furnace will use a tungsten lining rather than carbon, allowing higher yields of
ultra-pure polysilicon and reducing maintenance.
U.S. demand for advanced ceramics is forecast to increase 6.5 percent per year to nearly
$12 billion in 2010. New uses for ceramics, which offer considerable growth potential, include
ballistic armor, ceramic composite automotive brakes, diesel particulate filters, a wide variety
of prosthetic products, piezoceramic sensors and next-generation computer memory
products.
Noritake will start selling the furnaces later this year.
4
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
Tungsten prices this month were unchanged to lower, as shown in the tables below.
Reuters: Tungsten April 30 March 30
Tungstate APT-CHINA ($/lb) 262.50 262.50
Tungsten Ferro 75% RUSSIA ($ / kg) 33.50 34.60
Metal Bulletin: Tungsten May 1 March 30
Tungsten APT US Free market ($ / STU) 260 – 265 260 – 265
Tungsten APT European free market ($ / MTU) 255 – 260 260 – 265
Tungsten APT Chinese No.1 Hong Kong
FOB main Chinese ports ($ / MTU) 260 – 265 260 – 265
Dealer/ExporterScrap May 1 March 30
Tungsten Carbide ($ / lb)
U.S. destinations 8.75 – 9.15 9.25
Molybdenum
Molybdenum prices came off in early April but are again showing strength, and traders are
forecasting further gains in May. Although European stainless mills have reported reduced
operating rates, they say these reflect the garden-variety stainless steels and not the
molybdenum-bearing grades.
The demand for line pipe remains strong and construction forecasts are up about 11 percent
from last year. IPSCO’s Q1 report noted that its spiral–pipe mills are committed through May
2009. Molybdenum is increasingly used in steel pipe for oil and gas transmission.
Alaska’s governor has offered a 10-year tax freeze, and $500 million as an inducement for
launching the Alaska pipeline project – a 5,600 km pipeline which would need 2-2.5 million
tonnes of steel, and 13.2-16.5 million pounds of molybdenum if it uses X-100 steel pipe.
Orders could be placed in 2009 for delivery 2011-2012.
China this month announced plans to extend its oil and gas pipelines by nearly 60 percent by
2010, in a bid to meet the country's rising demand for energy.
A preliminary study is being conducted on a12.9 billion dollar (second) West-East gas
pipeline from the Xinjiang region in the northwest to the southern province of Guangdong
(China Daily). In 2004, China completed its first West-East gas pipeline, one of the biggest
energy projects in the country, linking Xinjiang and the industrialised eastern coast.
The country has built more than 80,000 kilometres (49,600 miles) of oil and gas pipelines,
the sixth longest in the world.
Molybdenum usage in the nuclear theatre looks set to expand now that U.S. nuclear power
plants can replace carbon steel water service pipes with duplex stainless steel pipe:
5
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
The Catawba nuclear plant in South Carolina, for example, is replacing original carbon steel
cooling water piping with duplex stainless steel S32205 (3-3.5% Mo). The plant, operated by
Duke Energy, was commissioned in 1985 and has a rated output of 2,258 megawatts.
The original carbon steel piping (mostly API 5L Grade B) has suffered from general corrosion
and microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Catawba is a fresh-water plant, and carbon
steel was the normal material of choice when it was designed in the 1970s. But as it turns
out, the water supply is rich in nutrients, which caused the development of MIC.
The approval of Code Case N-741 under the ASME Section III Boiler and Pressure Vessel
Code for the use of duplex stainless steel S32205 for water piping opens the door to its
approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
Before this issue was resolved, “...we were severely limited as to where we could use
duplex,” notes the company. “...[it] gives us the opportunity to use this material in applications
where we couldn’t use it before.”
Several nuclear power plants built in the United States in the 1970s and ’80s are now
replacing their water service piping with duplex stainless steel pipe for longer life and
improved corrosion resistance.
Chemical Week published a forecast for hydroprocessing catalyst consumption showing that
demand will grow 4.4 percent/year, to $ 1.8 billion in 2010, driven by a "final phase-in of low
sulfur regulations in developed countries, implementation of some sulfur restrictions in
countries such as China, India and Mexico, and increasingly higher sulfur-content oil coming
out of the ground." Hydroprocessing catalysts contain molybdenum along with either nickel or
cobalt.
Molybdenum supply, which is seen to be somewhat tight relative to strongly increasing
demand, is under further pressure this week because of a strike at the Southern Copper
mines in Peru. Peru’s moly production was already off, due to declining grades: Antamina,
lost about 2.2 million pounds production in the first quarter. The Southern Copper mines
were off 1.3 million pounds.
Molybdenum prices had eased early in the month – ferromolybdenum more so than oxide – ,
but at the time of writing, are increasing again: Traders are saying that they are reluctant to
commit large tonnages because they expect ferromolybdenum prices to breach $75 per
kilogram, based on European mills’ May purchasing. Current molybdenum prices are shown
in the tables below.
Reuters: Apr 30 Mar 30
Molybdenum Ferro ($/kg) WESTERN 71.50 75.50
Molybdenum Ferro ($/kg) CHINA 70.25 73.50
Molybdenum Oxide ($/lb) WESTERN 28.00 28.50
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marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
Metal Bulletin: May 1 March 30
European Molybdenum Oxide($/lb): 28.20-28.75 28.00-28.50
U.S. Molybdenum Oxide($/lb): 27.00-29.00 28.00-30.00
European Ferromoly 60% ($/kg) 71.00-72.00 73.00-76.00
European Ferromoly 65-70% ($/kg) 72.00-73.50 74.00-78.00
U.S. Ferromoly 65-70% ($/lb) 31.00-32.00 32.00-34.00
Although domestic Canadian gas drilling remains weak, worldwide drilling activity is strong,
and up about 6 percent from this time last year. Drill steels and casings, particularly those
used in offshore service, contain significant molybdenum. Rig counts and offshore drilling
activity are shown in the tables below.
2007 OIL AND GAS RIG COUNTS
Current Previous Year Ago Change
United States 1,747 1,769 1,608 +9%
Canada 81 98 150 -46%
International 994 981 898 +11%
World 2822 2848 2656 +6%
US and Canadian statistics are published for the week ending
April 27. International numbers reflect March, 2007.
International count excludes Iran and Sudan. Change is
calculated from the previous year. Source: Baker Hughes.
2007 OFFSHORE RIG UTILIZATION REPORT
Current Month Ago 6 Mo Ago 1 Yr Ago
Rigs Working 515 507 493 492
Total Rigs 590 587 579 569
Utilization 87.3% 86.4% 85.1% 86.5%
Competitive rigs. Data for week ending April 27, 2007.
Some investors are looking past uranium, it seems, and several managers are adding
molybdenum equities to their funds. Forecasts that molybdenum would return to “historical”
levels seem few and far between now as more analysts see the metal holding its current
price levels or moving higher. The Toronto Star carried an article suggesting molybdenum,
vanadium, and cobalt may be the next targets for investors. China Molybdenum, a
molybdenum-tungsten play, raised $944-million in the IPO and its share price jumped 66%.
______

[Firsteven]

http://www.largoresources.com/pdf/largo_letter.pdf

nochmal etwas übersichtlicher - hier geht es speziell um Moly:


Molybdenum
Molybdenum prices came off in early April but are again showing strength, and traders are
forecasting further gains in May. Although European stainless mills have reported reduced
operating rates, they say these reflect the garden-variety stainless steels and not the
molybdenum-bearing grades.
The demand for line pipe remains strong and construction forecasts are up about 11 percent
from last year. IPSCO’s Q1 report noted that its spiral–pipe mills are committed through May
2009. Molybdenum is increasingly used in steel pipe for oil and gas transmission.
Alaska’s governor has offered a 10-year tax freeze, and $500 million as an inducement for
launching the Alaska pipeline project – a 5,600 km pipeline which would need 2-2.5 million
tonnes of steel, and 13.2-16.5 million pounds of molybdenum if it uses X-100 steel pipe.
Orders could be placed in 2009 for delivery 2011-2012.
China this month announced plans to extend its oil and gas pipelines by nearly 60 percent by
2010, in a bid to meet the country's rising demand for energy.
A preliminary study is being conducted on a12.9 billion dollar (second) West-East gas
pipeline from the Xinjiang region in the northwest to the southern province of Guangdong
(China Daily). In 2004, China completed its first West-East gas pipeline, one of the biggest
energy projects in the country, linking Xinjiang and the industrialised eastern coast.
The country has built more than 80,000 kilometres (49,600 miles) of oil and gas pipelines,
the sixth longest in the world.
Molybdenum usage in the nuclear theatre looks set to expand now that U.S. nuclear power
plants can replace carbon steel water service pipes with duplex stainless steel pipe:
5
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
The Catawba nuclear plant in South Carolina, for example, is replacing original carbon steel
cooling water piping with duplex stainless steel S32205 (3-3.5% Mo). The plant, operated by
Duke Energy, was commissioned in 1985 and has a rated output of 2,258 megawatts.
The original carbon steel piping (mostly API 5L Grade B) has suffered from general corrosion
and microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Catawba is a fresh-water plant, and carbon
steel was the normal material of choice when it was designed in the 1970s. But as it turns
out, the water supply is rich in nutrients, which caused the development of MIC.
The approval of Code Case N-741 under the ASME Section III Boiler and Pressure Vessel
Code for the use of duplex stainless steel S32205 for water piping opens the door to its
approval by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
Before this issue was resolved, “...we were severely limited as to where we could use
duplex,” notes the company. “...[it] gives us the opportunity to use this material in applications
where we couldn’t use it before.”
Several nuclear power plants built in the United States in the 1970s and ’80s are now
replacing their water service piping with duplex stainless steel pipe for longer life and
improved corrosion resistance.
Chemical Week published a forecast for hydroprocessing catalyst consumption showing that
demand will grow 4.4 percent/year, to $ 1.8 billion in 2010, driven by a "final phase-in of low
sulfur regulations in developed countries, implementation of some sulfur restrictions in
countries such as China, India and Mexico, and increasingly higher sulfur-content oil coming
out of the ground." Hydroprocessing catalysts contain molybdenum along with either nickel or
cobalt.
Molybdenum supply, which is seen to be somewhat tight relative to strongly increasing
demand, is under further pressure this week because of a strike at the Southern Copper
mines in Peru. Peru’s moly production was already off, due to declining grades: Antamina,
lost about 2.2 million pounds production in the first quarter. The Southern Copper mines
were off 1.3 million pounds.
Molybdenum prices had eased early in the month – ferromolybdenum more so than oxide – ,
but at the time of writing, are increasing again: Traders are saying that they are reluctant to
commit large tonnages because they expect ferromolybdenum prices to breach $75 per
kilogram, based on European mills’ May purchasing. Current molybdenum prices are shown
in the tables below.
Reuters: Apr 30 Mar 30
Molybdenum Ferro ($/kg) WESTERN 71.50 75.50
Molybdenum Ferro ($/kg) CHINA 70.25 73.50
Molybdenum Oxide ($/lb) WESTERN 28.00 28.50
6
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
Metal Bulletin: May 1 March 30
European Molybdenum Oxide($/lb): 28.20-28.75 28.00-28.50
U.S. Molybdenum Oxide($/lb): 27.00-29.00 28.00-30.00
European Ferromoly 60% ($/kg) 71.00-72.00 73.00-76.00
European Ferromoly 65-70% ($/kg) 72.00-73.50 74.00-78.00
U.S. Ferromoly 65-70% ($/lb) 31.00-32.00 32.00-34.00
Although domestic Canadian gas drilling remains weak, worldwide drilling activity is strong,
and up about 6 percent from this time last year. Drill steels and casings, particularly those
used in offshore service, contain significant molybdenum. Rig counts and offshore drilling
activity are shown in the tables below.
2007 OIL AND GAS RIG COUNTS
Current Previous Year Ago Change
United States 1,747 1,769 1,608 +9%
Canada 81 98 150 -46%
International 994 981 898 +11%
World 2822 2848 2656 +6%
US and Canadian statistics are published for the week ending
April 27. International numbers reflect March, 2007.
International count excludes Iran and Sudan. Change is
calculated from the previous year. Source: Baker Hughes.
2007 OFFSHORE RIG UTILIZATION REPORT
Current Month Ago 6 Mo Ago 1 Yr Ago
Rigs Working 515 507 493 492
Total Rigs 590 587 579 569
Utilization 87.3% 86.4% 85.1% 86.5%
Competitive rigs. Data for week ending April 27, 2007.
Some investors are looking past uranium, it seems, and several managers are adding
molybdenum equities to their funds. Forecasts that molybdenum would return to “historical”
levels seem few and far between now as more analysts see the metal holding its current
price levels or moving higher. The Toronto Star carried an article suggesting molybdenum,
vanadium, and cobalt may be the next targets for investors. China Molybdenum, a
molybdenum-tungsten play, raised $944-million in the IPO and its share price jumped 66%.

[Firsteven]

http://www.largoresources.com/pdf/metals_report.pdf

Hier noch die Ausgabe vom April 2007:


Molybdenum
European molybdenum prices have come off their 16-month highs reached earlier in March,
while U.S. prices are holding. The second quarter is traditionally the busiest season for
Chinese steel mills, so it will be interesting to see what develops with moly prices. Current
numbers are shown in the tables below.
5
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
Reuters: Mar 30 Previous
Molybdenum Ferro ($/kg) WESTERN 75.50 79.00
Molybdenum Ferro ($/kg) CHINA 73.50 77.00
Molybdenum Oxide ($/lb) WESTERN 28.50 29.00
Metal Bulletin: March 30 Previous
European Molybdenum Oxide($/lb): 28.00-28.50 28.80-29.50
U.S. Molybdenum Oxide($/lb): 28.00-30.00 28.00-30.00
European Ferromoly 60% ($/kg) 73.00-76.00 74.00-77.00
European Ferromoly 65-70% ($/kg) 74.00-78.00 76.00-80.00
U.S. Ferromoly 65-70% ($/lb) 32.00-34.00 32.00-34.00

Market watchers are still trying to determine the full extent of new Chinese tariffs and nontariff
barriers, and how much concentrate will actually leave the country on a sustainable
basis. There is also an expectation of new tariffs on ferroalloy exports coming in the second
half of the year. Indications are that China will be consuming more of its molybdenum
domestically: Small producer/exporters have been forced to sell their concentrates to local
processors through a restriction on export permits.
2006 stainless statistics for the U.S. and China released during the month show increases of
15 percent in U.S. consumption, and 60 percent in China’s production – 2006 over 2005.

China has become the world's largest stainless steel producer with its output exceeding five
millions tons in 2006 for the first time. The world's total stainless steel output hit 27.8 million
tons last year – up about 14 percent.

A U.S. company, Swagelok, has developed a new form of stainless steel using what they call
Low-Temperature Colossal Supersaturation (LTCSS) heat treating. According to the
company, there is evidence of improved corrosion resistance; wear resistance increases by
100 times; erosion resistance increases by 5.5 times; and fatigue strength increases by
approximately 50 percent. We’ll be watching for the positive effect on 316 stainless
specifically. This family of materials is also known as Carbon Saturated Stainless Steels
(CSSS).

Although domestic Canadian drilling has dropped off with the season, offshore drilling
worldwide remains strong. (See drill rig statistics below.) These latter drill steels typically use
more molybdenum that the steels in onshore service.
2007 OIL AND GAS RIG COUNTS
6
marketfriendly, inc. – [e-mail] – [phone]
Current Previous Year Ago Change
United States 1,749 1,745 1,576 +11%
Canada 149 246 425 -65%
International 981 972 885 +11%
World 2879 2963 2886 n/c

US and Canadian statistics are published for the week ending
March 30. International numbers reflect February, 2007.
International count excludes Iran and Sudan. Change is
calculated from the previous year. Source: Baker Hughes.

2007 OFFSHORE RIG UTILIZATION REPORT
Current Month Ago 6 Mo Ago 1 Yr Ago
Rigs Working 512 508 493 484
Total Rigs 588 587 577 569
Utilization (%) 87.1% 86.5% 85.4% 85.1%
Competitive rigs. Data for week ending March 30, 2007.

Military demand for molybdenum is growing: Japan is shopping for a new airforce and will
replace 250-300 multi-role fighters. The choice is between the Eurofighter at about $126
million each, and the F-22 at about $200 million each, but the need for molybdenum-bearing
superalloys in the engines will be there either way.
The Associated Press reported that Gulf countries are considering plans to build two oil
pipelines which would enable them to avoid using the Straits of Hormuz between Oman and
Iran. Around 40 percent of the world's oil supply is shipped through this waterway and Iran
has threatened to disrupt supplies if it comes under attack.
Alcan has resurrected the PNG pipeline for carrying Papua New Guinea gas to Australia,
specifically to its Northern Territory Gove alumina refinery from PNG's Western Province.
The pipeline, which would cross the Arafura Sea north of the Gulf of Carpentaria, would be
tailored to Gove's requirements with first deliveries in 2011.
Pipe mills are increasingly adding molybdenum to pipeline steels.
The London Metal Exchange reported that its proposal to introduce contracts for
molybdenum and cobalt, received a mixed response. "Not all of it has been encouraging",
according to the CEO. The exchange will conclude a review on offering the new contracts by
the end of this year or the beginning of 2008.
A unique molybdenum exchange traded fund with assets in both physical molybdenum and
molybdenum equities hit the road this month in Toronto, and has helped focus attention on
molybdenum for which demand appears, like vanadium, to be growing faster than steel.
______

[Firsteven]

http://usera.imagecave.com/scam/MolyPlay.bmp.jpg


Super Übersicht!!!

[schnucksche]

18 May 2007
China to further increase ferroalloy, tungsten export tax
The Chinese government intends to further increase the export tax on ferroalloy products in the near future, as part of measures to control overcapacity and hasten the elimination of outdated capacity, a governmental official told Interfax yesterday.

An official with the National Development and Reform Commission, who asked to remain anonymous, said the policy was in the final stages of preparation and most ferroalloy product export taxes would be increased from current 10% levels.

The export of ferroalloy products including ferromanganese, ferrosilicon, ferrochromium, ferronickel, ferromolybdenum and ferrotungsten, has been levied at 10% since Nov. 1, 2006.

He stressed that although the policy would be released very soon, a final issue date had not yet been decided.

The market rumour is that the export tax on silicon-manganese will be raised to 15%, while that of electrolytic manganese will be raised to as much as 30%. Silicon-Manganese FOB prices have experienced constant growth since the beginning of March this year, as a result of the market rumour.

The FOB price for silicon-manganese (Mn65Si17) soared to between $1,300 and $1,400 per tonne in China's major ports yesterday, up between 76% and 84% from between $740 and $760 per tonne at the beginning of March.

Although the official refused to comment on this rumour, he emphasized that the government was determined to substantially reduce outdated capacity and curb the current trade surplus through this round of export tax increases.

China's ferroalloy industry is facing severe problems from overcapacity, heavy pollution and out-of-date technology. There are a current total of 1,570 ferroalloy producers in China, capable of producing a combined 22.13 million tonnes of ferroalloy per year. However, only 48% of capacity is currently under operation.

The Chinese government aims to reduce domestic ferroalloy capacity to 17 million tonnes by 2010, down 25% from 2005.

The domestic ferroalloy industry has been recovering from losses since the beginning of this year, caused by the steady rise in downstream steel product prices in the domestic market.

"We've seen significant growth in ferroalloy purchases from steel mills since the Spring Festival. The low stockpiles of manganese ferroalloy products, including silicon manganese and ferromanganese and a tight manganese ore supply, have resulted in rising prices that are expected to continue for the near future," said Wang Xin, an analyst with Custeel, a consultancy affiliated with the China Iron and Steel Association.

Wang said the policy would be released at latest before the end of June, since exports of some types of ferroalloy including ferrosilicon and ferrotungsten saw unexpected high in the first three months, which has stirred up much concern among the central government.

In the first quarter, China exported 1,558 tonnes ferrotungsten, up 16.5% from the same period of last year.

China has charged much higher power prices to outdated ferroalloy mills this year, resulting in higher production cost and increased ferroalloy product prices, she added.

The price of silicon-manganese (Mn65Si17) was RMB 9,300 ($1,211.17) per tonne in China's southwestern regions yesterday. Ferrosilicon was RMB 5,750 ($748.84) per tonne in the northwestern market and ferrotitanium (Ti30) was RMB 13,500 ($1,758.16) per tonne in the northeastern market, according to Shanghai Mysteel.

Wang commented that the new export tax policy would dramatically reduce ferroalloy industry profits and make many small enterprises reluctant to export.

"For example, based on current prices, the export cost of ferrosilicon will increase $40 to $50 per a tonne if the export tax is raised just 5 percentage points," Wang said.

Tungsten
China will further increase the export tax on tungsten products in June in an aim to combat illegal mining and protect scarce mineral resource, an analyst told Interfax today.

China is likely to increase the export tax on ammonium paratungstate (APT), tungsten oxide, tungsten powder and unwrought tungsten products from a current 5% to 10% and increase the tax on ferrotungsten exports from a current 10% to 15%, said Yang Zhaohui, an analyst with Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd., a leading consultancy affiliated with the semi-governmental China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.

Yang added that the government is likely to announce tungsten export tax policies in conjunction with ferroalloy export tax policies.

China is the world's largest tungsten producer and exporter, exporting 5,955.1 tonnes of tungsten products in the first quarter of the year, down 6.4% year-on-year. Exports of tungsten acid, ammonium metatungstate and ferrotungsten increased 182.2%, 71.8% and 16.5% respectively, from the same period of last year, according to statistics released by the China Tungsten Industry Association.

Yang attributed lower tungsten product export levels to China's restrictive export policies. China imposed export taxes varying from 5% to 15% on primary tungsten products on Jan. 1 this year, including APT, tungsten carbonate, tungsten powder, ferrotungsten and scrap tungsten.

The government has also cancelled export tax rebates on tungsten products and banned tungsten concentrate tolling.

Yang commented that domestic tungsten concentrate prices would remain relatively stable in June and July, despite market expectations that China will further increase tungsten export taxes.

The price of Chinese tungsten remained at between RMB 95,000 ($12,389.96) and RMB 105,000 ($13,694.16) per tonne in the first four months of the year, according to information provided by the Jiangxi Nonferrous Metals Industry Administration Bureau.

"June and July are traditionally sluggish months in terms of tungsten consumption in both the domestic and international market. Furthermore, Chinese tungsten miners and processors are maturing in their ability to adjust production to market needs, suggesting that the market will balance even if consumption slows," he explained.

China produced 17,059 tonnes of tungsten concentrate in the first three months this year, down 4.87% from the same period last year. Tungsten concentrate imports were down 18.9% from the same period last year to 1,112.8 tonnes.

[ChinaAktionaer]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.390.934 von Firsteven am 20.05.07 11:54:38

Hallo Firsteven,

das mag ja ne schöne Übersicht sein, aber die Zahlen stimmen leider nicht ! Wer auch immer diese zusammen gestellt hat, war nicht sehr gründlich.

Bei Roca und Mercator stimmen die Zahlen der Aktien nicht, und wie Mercator auf 1,4 mrd. Moly kommen soll, ist mir auch ein Rätsel.
Vielleicht Cu mitgerechnet ?

Falsche Zahlen = Falsche Rechnung, also völlig unbrauchbare Übersicht.

Wenn man die anderen Zahlen dann noch überprüft, dürfte sicher noch einiges mehr verkehrt sein .

Gruss

China

[Firsteven]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 29.403.713 von ChinaAktionaer am 21.05.07 14:45:51

hatte ich aus dem Hauptthread kopiert.
Das mit Mercator hab ich auch gesehen. Dann wäre die ja ein Geschenk!!

[Firsteven]

China's Planned Aluminium-Product Export Tax Rebate Reduction Worries Industry

By David Harman
21 May 2007 at 08:54 AM GMT-04:00


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- The Chinese government's proposed reduction of export tax rebates for aluminum products is causing concern in the aluminum fabrication industry that profits will be heavily affected, industry insiders told Interfax today.

"The export tax rebate on aluminium foil, less than 2 millimeters thick, will probably be reduced from a current 13% to 5% in early June, meaning that export profits will be reduced by 8%. China currently relies on exports to balance the domestic market," a senior official, surnamed Liao, with Yunnan Xinmeilu Aluminum Foil Co. Ltd. told Interfax.




There is market expectation that the Chinese government will reduce the export tax rebate on some aluminum products from current levels of between 8% and 15% to between 0% and 13% in early June, as a result of April aluminium-product exports reaching a new historical high.

According to a Ministry of Finance (MOF) announcement today, the Chinese government will impose an export tax on steel products of between 5% and 10%, as well increase the export tax on billets, ferroalloy products, unwrought zinc and nickel ores to between 10% and 15% on June 1 this year.

The policy is aimed at further reducing exports of high energy-consuming and highly polluting products, while encouraging the import of raw energy materials and low-level resource products in an attempt to address China's trade imbalance, according to the document released by the MOF today.

Five leading domestic aluminium-foil producers recently proposed to the central government that they maintain the current 13% aluminium foil export tax rebate in order to avoid causing large industry losses and domestic market oversupply, according to Liao.

The five aluminium foil producers are Yunnan Xinmeilu Aluminum Foil Co. Ltd., Xiashun Aluminum Foil Co. Ltd., North China Aluminum Co. Ltd., West China Aluminum Co. Ltd. and Jiangsu Daya Aluminum Co. Ltd.

Micron-gauge aluminium foil production in China is expected to reach 210,000 tonnes this year, up 44% from last year while domestic market consumption is only expected to reach 98,000 tonnes.

Xinmeilu Aluminum exported more than 3,000 tonnes of micron-gauge aluminium foil last year, accounting for 5.5% of China's total 55,000 tonnes of exports, she said.

The possible export tax rebate reduction will decrease aluminium product export volumes and cause severe oversupply problems, according to the five aforementioned aluminium foil producers.

"We hope the government will continue to support aluminium foil companies through its export policy, as aluminium foil sector development conforms to China's aluminium industry policy to encourage the production and export of high value-added aluminium products," she added.

Liu Defei, a Beijing Antaike Information Co. Ltd. analyst, commented that the tax rebate reduction would negatively affect China's aluminium product exports in the short term, but would not substantially affect them in the future due to China's oversupply of aluminium and aluminium products.

"As China's aluminium product consumption is far less than industrial capacity, exports are necessary for domestic market balance. Both domestic and international aluminium prices are bound to increase to some extent in the period after the policy is released," Liu said.

Liu commented that there were still profits to be made from aluminium product exports, despite lower tax rebates. "As primary aluminium exports are currently taxed at 15%, a substantial amount of aluminium capacity has switched focus to processed aluminium in order to generate higher profits," he explained.

China exported 196,710 tonnes of aluminium products in April, up 28.6% from the previous month. Exports surged 95.6% to 605,522 tonnes in the first four months of the year, according to statistics released by the General Customs Administration last Tuesday.

The noticeable growth of aluminium product exports is a result of a significant increase in aluminium product capacity, after the primary aluminium export tax was increased from 5% to 15% on Nov. 1, 2006.

In addition, a total of 83 types of steel products including wire, hot-rolled plate and steel section will be levied between 5% and 10%. This move follows the cancellation of export tax rebates for those 83 types of steel products on April 15 this year.

The export tax on billets, steel ingots and pig iron will be increased from a current 10% to 15% on June 1. The export tax on the ores of nickel, chromium, tungsten, manganese, molybdenum and rare earth will also be increased from a current 10% to 15%.

Coal tar, various ferroalloy products, unwrought zinc and calcium fluoride export taxes will also be increased from a current level of between 5% and 10% to between 10% and 15%.

Furthermore, the export of rare earth metals, refined lead, terbium oxide, dysprosium oxide as well as nonferrous scrap metal will be levied at 10% from June 1.

Ammonium parastungstate (APT), molybdenum oxide, ammonium molybdate, sodium molybdate, magnesite and burned magnesium export taxes will range from 5% to 15% as of June 1.

Commentary

Readers of this report will not be surprised at: 1) The introduction of further policy aimed at restricting exports; and 2) The precarious state of the industry vis-à-vis domestic overcapacity and the subsequent increased reliance upon the export market.

This trend has been evident for some months and is not unique to aluminium, as copper and steel industries face the same dilemma.

© Interfax-China 2007.

This article comes from Interfax China Commodities Daily, a daily digest produced by Interfax News Agency in Mainland China. To receive 10 free copies of this, please e-mail [e-mail].

[Firsteven]

Korea starts first molybdenum smelter, eyes exports
South Korea, the world's fifth-largest steelmaking nation, opened the nation's first smelter for molybdenum, used to strengthen the alloy, to cut costs and export to Japan and Taiwan amid surging prices.

The smelter, located in Yeosu, 455 kilometers south of Seoul, will have initial production capacity of 6,000 metric tons a year, making it the world's seventh-largest, Korea Resources Corp. said in a statement yesterday. The plant, which will supply about half its output to Posco, may double its capacity starting next year, the company said.

The smelter will help South Korea, Asia's third-largest economy, reduce dependence on refined imports from China and Chile and tap rising demand from steel mills. Global molybdenum prices have increased 25 percent in the past year, according to Metal Bulletin magazine.

"It's a smart move," said Mark Pervan, head of research at Daiwa Securities SMBC, in Melbourne. "There's going to be very strong underlying demand for nickel substitute products like molybdenum and chromium," over the next three to four years, he said.

The new smelter will initially meet 35 percent of domestic demand and save about 130 billion won ($140 million) in imports, the government-owned energy and mineral resource explorer said. The plant will meet 70 percent of domestic demand when it doubles capacity.

Importing molybdenum ore is 10 percent to 13 percent cheaper than buying the refined product and the smelter will break even in about five and a half years, said Youn Cheal Hean, a director general at Korea Resources' business development team.

"Global demand for molybdenum is growing 5.2 percent every year, while there is a shortage of smelting facilities," Lee Han-ho, CEO at state-run Korea Resources told reporters on May 11 at the opening ceremony of the plant in Yeosu. "This smelter will enable us to even become an exporter. We plan to export to Japan and Taiwan."

The smelter, a joint venture between Korea Resources and KTC Korea Co., a metals trader, will initially receive 670 tons of molybdenum ore a year from a mine in Uljin, 330 kilometers southeast of Seoul, Korea Resources said. The mine, the only molybdenum mine in the country so far, has estimated reserves of 3.7 million tons. Lee said Korea Resources has plans to explore and develop more mines in the country, without elaborating.

Molybdenum accounts for 1 percent of the volume of the raw materials used to make stainless steel, and 20 percent of the value because of its price. The smelter plans to post sales of 200 billion won next year and double that figure to 400 billion won by 2010, the company said.

China, home to the world's biggest molybdenum deposits, will soon issue licenses and impose quotas on exports of the commodity, Wu Wenjun, general manager of China Molybdenum said in March. The country imposed a 10 percent export tax on ferro- molybdenum from November 2006, after canceling an export tax rebate from January 2005. It also set thresholds for molybdenum plant expansions in January.


Friday, May 18, 2007
Stainless
Source: Metalsplace

[Firsteven]

Hallo Leute,

während hier wieder einmal der Weltuntergang beschworen wird und all sich Gedanken machen wie tief TCM bei einem Crash fallen könnte habe ich mir einmal die Mühe gemacht und einige Informationen über unser Invest abgefragt.

Im HInblick auf eine wachsende Welt-, Stahl und Molybdänkonjunktur mache ich mir über irgend welche eventuellen Kurzfristgewitter keinerlei Gedanken.

Bei einem KGV von aktuell nur 50 wird in China von einer Blase gesprochen. Bei den Wachstumsraten der chinesischen Wirtschaft kann ich da noch keine Blase entdecken.

Nur gut, dass alle aufpassen, denn der 2000 bis 2003er Knall am Aktienmarkt bleibt unvergessen. Da hatten wir aber am vergleichbaren Neuenmarkt KGV's von mehreren Hundert. Also: Gewitter wird es geben, aber die sind nur reinigend und verhindern eine schnelle Überhitzung.

Nun zu meinen neuen Informationen:

TCM hat ja für dieses jahr niedrigere Produktionsmengen wegen dem Auflegen einer neuen Erzschicht bei TC angekündigt.

Im Rahmen desen wurde ja die Arbeitszeit von 14 * 24 Stunden auf permanenten 24-Stundenbetrieb umgestellt.

Nun hat mich einmal interessiert, ob die Planung auch eingehalten wurde und der Betrieb nach Plan läuft. Auch hat mich interessiert, ob in Equipment und in neue Arbeitsplätze investiert wurde.

Hi ,

At the Thompson Creek Mine, we already have achieved operation of the
mill
as we planned, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We hired some new
employees
but we didn't need much new equipment. It was not difficult to hire the
employees that we needed.

The key to our production of molybdenum, however, is the grade of the
ore.
Currently, we are processing low-grade ore, mostly from the stockpile,
at
the mill. We are doing this while we strip ground away so that we get
to the
next phase of mining ore. When we get back to processing higher grade
ore,
the production of molybdenum will go up. The mill will be running the
same
amount, but because the grade of ore is higher, there will be a higher
production of molybdenum.

We have mentioned many times that our total production of molybdenum
will
rise to 27 million pounds in 2008 from 21 million in 2007. This is
mainly
due to the higher grade of ore that we will mine in 2008 on average,
not the
increase time we have the mill operating. We will be able to achieve
that
level in 2008 without any additional expansions of activity. It will
just be
because of the higher grade of ore.

Heißt: Alles läuft nach Plan.

Wenn man aber einmal sich die Mühe macht und die Zahlen vor dem wegräumen des Abraumes bei einer Arbeitszeit von nur 14 Tagen im Monat mit den Planzahlen für die Zukunft vergleicht, dann fällt einem eine kleine Lücke bei dem angekündigten Mengenausstoss auf.

Man ist voll auf die sichere Seite gegangen. Ich denke, dass man in 2007 22 bis 25 Mio. IB fördern wird und 2008 mindestens 32 bis 35 Mio. IB Moly fördern kann.

Da der Molypreis auch so langsam in die gewünschten Regionen steigt
kann man sogar als Laie das ungefähre KGV und das Kursziel für 2008 errechnen.

Da durch die KGV's in China auch anderen Wachstumsaktien höhere KGV's zugestanden werden wird man dies auch TCM zugestehen. Trotzdem rechne ich nur mit einem KGV von 10.

Der Molypreis wird > 45$ sein. Daher rechen ich mit einem Gewinn von 40$ pro IB.

Rechnung: 32 Mio. IB * 40$ + Zukauf/Fremdröstung = 1.350 Mio. USD operativer Gewinn.

Rechnet mane Kosten und Steuern von 550 Mio. USD ab, dann bleiben noch ca. 800 Mio. USD Gewinn übrig. Ergibt dann, nach der Umrechnung in CAD ungefähr einen Gewinn von 7 CAD pro Aktie.

Das macht dann einen momentanen KGV von 2,4 aus. Also sollte sich unser Invest so langsam auf den Weg in höhere Regionen begeben.

Bei einem Molypreis von 30 USD liegen wir für 2008 bei einem KGV von ungefähr 3,5.

Bei einem Ziel-KGV von 10 wird sich daher die Aktie entweder verdreifachen oder vervierfachen.

Dann gibt es noch die Bestcaserechnungen mit einem KGV von 20 oder 30, oder einen Molypreis > 50 oder, oder, oder.

Ich bleibe für 2008 bei dem konservativen Ansatz und rechne mit einem Kursziel zwischen 33 und 44 Euro nach KGV für 2008.

Wird aber ab der zweiten Jahreshälfte das KGV von 2009 zum Massstab genommen, dann landen wir in noch ganz anderen Regionen.

Daher, egal wann ein Börsengewitter kommt, meine Shares bekommt vor Mitte 2008 keiner. Und dann auch nur einen Teil.

therefore

[schnucksche]

Update....

China to raise export taxes on some ferroalloys on June 1
The Chinese government today made a vague announcement for the imposition of higher export taxes. The new taxes, which will take effect on June 1, will affect many metals and ferroalloys. The export tax for "some certain" ferroalloys, zinc metal and fluorite will be increased to 10-15% from 5-10%. The export taxes for manganese, chrome, tungsten, molybdenum, nickel ores will be increased by 5% to 15% although they are almost not being exported. The new taxes for ammonium paratungstate, molybdenum oxide, ammonium molydbate and magnesite will be in a range between 5-15%. The exports of lead metal and rare earths will face a 10% export tax. Export taxes for steel billets and ingots and pig iron granules will be increased to 15% from 10%. The details are expected to be clarified in the following days.