Der Sell-out in Europa war gestern! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite

[Royalflash]

Gestern, trotz dieses grauenvollen Ereignisses, hatten noch etliche Hedge-Fonds die Gunst der Stunde, wenn man so überhaupt sagen kann, genutzt, um dem DAX usw. nochmal ca. 10% Verlust beizubringen. Man hat ebenfalls heute Morgen gesehen, dass aufgrund von Short-Eindeckungen dieser Fonds zeitweilig bis zu 3% im DAX nach oben gingen. Derzeit, und das ist vielleicht auch gut so, ist mehr oder minder eine Bedenkzeit (oder Auszeit) an den Märkten eingetreten. Die Rules an der New York Stock Exchange und Nasdaq besagen, dass die Börsen jeweils nur für einen Zeitraum von 4 Tagen geschlossen werden können, um am 5. Tag einen Handel wieder zu ermöglichen. Das wäre Freitag dieser Woche, aber wer weiß, vielleicht wird auch der Handel erst wieder am Montag eröffnet. Es gibt natürlich zwei Meinungen, kommt der amerikanische Markt schwach oder kommt er vielleicht stark, wer weiß das schon? Aber wie wir wissen, bewegen Emotionen Märkte und desto mehr die Emotion weicht, das heißt desto länger die Börsen in Amerika geschlossen bleiben, um so realistischer und professioneller wird der Handel bei Eröffnung wieder stattfinden. Auch nach so einem Inferno heißt es kühlen Kopf bewahren und nicht aus Panik oder sonstigen Beweggründen falsche Entscheidungen treffen, die sich in solchen Zeiten später nicht mehr reparieren lassen. Eine alte Weisheit, die kennt Ihr allemal, schau nach vorne und nie zurück!

[JLL]

Ich wünschte, Du würdest uns wenigstens an so einem Tag mit Deinen halbgaren Plattheiten verschonen.

JLL

[RoccaNettuno]

Zu menem Bedauern bin ich der Überzeugung, das wir den sell-out noch vor uns haben. Seit dem Anschlag wurden in den USA keine Aktien mehr gehandelt. Sobald es dort wieder los geht werden viele die Verkaufstaste drücken.
In solchen Zeiten wollen etliche keine Aktien mehr haben.
Bedenklich stimmt mich auch die Tatsache, das fast alle Banken, Analysten und Fondsmanger Durchhalteparolen ausgeben. Dann haben sie selber Zeit ihre Positionen zu günstigeren Kursen glatt zu stellen!
Rocca

[Vinoveritas]

Lest euch das mal gut durch. Was sagt ihr dazu. Food for thoughts. Habe das bei stockhouse gefunden.
What happens when the markets reopen?
As leaders work to prevent a political and psychological crisis from
turning into a financial one, history offers the only real guide on what to
expect when the smoke clears.
By Jon D. Markman

If you go way back, it was 139 years ago next week that Gen. Robert
E. Lee and his Confederate troops engaged the Union Army at
Antietam, Md., in a battle that turned out to be the single bloodiest
day in U.S. history. More than 26,000 soldiers from both sides were
killed or wounded on that Sept. 17, 1862 -- a figure that will probably
be eclipsed by the carnage of Sept. 11, 2001.

That attack, the first major thrust north by the surprisingly powerful
Southern rebels, led President Abraham Lincoln to issue his
Emancipation Proclamation – and open a new chapter in American
civil and business life, a new era of liberty for people and markets.

Likewise have most major events in U.S. economic history led to
consequences unimagined by key actors at the time. And so it will
probably be with this attack. Sources across the country told me
Tuesday that they believe that the unexpected consequence over the
next few days and months could be a stock-market rally led first by
promises by the Federal Reserve to provide all necessary funds to
staggered banks and brokerages and next by vast deficit spending by
Congress to shore up the country’s defenses.

Michael Stutzer, professor of finance at the University of Iowa, points
out that Tuesday’s events were a civil and emotional crisis, not a
financial crisis. An emotional crisis, he said, can lead to a financial
crisis only if mishandled by government authorities. “A financial crisis
is what happened in Japan, where people learned that not only were all
the stocks they held were overvalued but that their government had a
hand in leading their banks to bankruptcy,” he said. “Nothing like that
is happening here. But what does have to happen now is that the Fed
must act to prevent a ‘contagion of fear’ from spreading and leading
people to withdraw money and stop buying things. That would lead to
a recession and thus to a real financial emergency.”

A few predictions
What are the likely immediate consequences when the U.S. markets
reopen later this week or next?

Anthony Kolton, chief executive of Markethistory.com in Chicago, has
researched the past 100 years of events that led the United States
into war. He forecasts with confidence that the major indexes will open
with losses of 5%, then quickly recover by the end of the following
trading week to remain unchanged at pre-catastrophe levels. “If there
is a big opening plunge, I think you’ll see a total recovery over the next
five days,” he said from Manhattan.

Kolton, who was en route to a meeting at the World Trade Center
when the buildings were hit, said he also believes that the United
States does not face a financial crisis just because the buildings that
were destroyed stood at the center of U.S. financial life. The reason:
After the 1993 bombing of the buildings, he says, most companies
spent millions to build disaster recovery systems and back up all their
accounting far off site. “We’re going to recover,” he said.

Steve Milner, managing partner of the worldwide financial planning firm
Squar Milner in Newport Beach, Calif., said he is most worried about
the consumer, not business. Based on conversations with clients, he
believes that people will react with fear -- and fearful people rein in their
spending on everything from vacations to home remodeling and
stocks. That will be a real, not an imagined, economic event, he
believes, that could badly damage a U.S. economy that is already
sputtering.

Milner also notes that many major financial institutions that he does
business with were already inclined to be sellers of the recent decline,
not buyers. But that could turn around. “People who were inclined to
sell might be more inclined to sell now – but I doubt it,” he said. “There
is a cynical part of me that says financial professionals will realize that
life goes on and will decide to be buyers.”

Vic Niederhoffer, a longtime trader for financier George Soros and his
own accounts, says that he also believes that a big down market will
find buyers. “I really hate to sound mercenary, but I have received
many messages from traders who say that they think this will be a
terrific opportunity to buy. Whether you look at the John F. Kennedy
assassination, the Eisenhower heart attack, the Warren G. Harding
ptomaine poisoning or airline crashes, usually disasters provide the
greatest times of opportunity,” he said.

Niederhoffer, a student of economic history, said that in the past
disasters have led to a tremendous boost for local and national
economies as capital infrastructure gets rebuilt with the most modern
equipment. Those two buildings alone will require massive outlays of
funds – possibly provided by the Fed or Congress from the U.S.
Treasury – to build miles of new fiber-optic lines, buy the latest
data-transmission switches, and possibly tens of thousands of new
computers and software.

“Everyone will chip in to help and this will turn out to be a transitory
event,” Niederhoffer said. “It may cause a temporary slowdown in the
U.S. economy and a big disruption in the supply chain, but there is no
evidence that declines in products or earnings or commerce have
anything to do with stock prices anyway. In fact, there is no evidence
to suggest that stocks do any worse in recessions than they do in
better times.”

Mr. P, a hedge fund trader that I have quoted in past columns, said he
likewise believes that the first day’s move could set a bottom to the
market. “This is very bad for bonds, very good for stocks,” he said.
“This act of war, with the magnitude of the loss of life, will lead
Congress to engage in deficit spending like the world has never seen --
selling billions of dollars of new government bonds to cope both with
the reconstruction of New York and the build-up of the American
military.”

Always, history offers perspective
So what if these scenarios don’t pan out? The global financial system
was already in bad shape before Tuesday and sellers of stocks were
swamping buyers with growing intensity. If worried investors decide to
put all their personal funds in a lockbox and the Fed and Congress
stand aside, you could look to the last major financial crises for the
floor in the market.

The October 1987 crash left the Nasdaq at 323 at its nadir, a level
reached again four years later in October 1990 at the moment of
greatest panic over oil supplies during the Gulf War against Iraq. If the
markets had risen from there in a straight line that approximated the
historic 6% return of stocks, that index would be at around 690 today
instead of 1,680.

That could be a real floor, but it’s unlikely to transpire if authorities do
their job and thus avoid the fate that befell Gen. George McClellan two
months after Antietam. President Lincoln replaced him with Ambrose
E. Burnside after complaining about McClellan’s failure to press his
advantage after victory. His comment: “If you don’t want to use the
Army, I should like to borrow it for awhile.” The Bush administration
likewise has a vast set of financial weapons at its disposal to battle
this assault, and the public will replace it if used unwisely and too
slowly.

[HonestJohn]

Ragouletto, Du als Realist, ich raffe gar nichts mehr !

Eigentlich habe ich Dich immer als
contraindikator gesehen - nicht böse gemeint !

die Dame


der John

[Royalflash]

@JLL
Dein Gestrulle hier in diesem Board kannst Du Dir sparen, ich empfinde dies als reine Attacke gegen die Meinungsfreiheit und im Übrigen, wenn Du keine Aktien besitzt, solltest Du lieber die Finger von den Tasten lassen. Tschüss.

[JLL]

@Royalflash

In meinen Augen warst Du schon immer ein Dummkopf, seit heute weiß ich, dass Du ein herzloser Dummkopf bist.

JLL

P.S.: Ich warte immer noch auf eine Antwort zu Deiner - wie immer frei erfundenen - Umtauschaktion ACG in CE

[JLL]

Kleiner Nachtrag:

"Eine alte Weisheit, die kennt Ihr allemal, schau nach vorne und nie zurück!"

Wie nennt man so etwas angesichts der Ereignisse? Ich nenne es eine halbgare Plattheit.

Gruß

JLL