!!! GOLD - PREIS !!! Informationen und Gerüchte !!! - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 15)

[Basic]

und weil das so ist ulfur, wenn Vorurteile nur ständig von so genannten Experten kopiert werden, die an der Realität vorbei gehen...

Die Realität wird sie einholen, Billi der Gates hat schon vor Jahren in Silber investiert. Da Billi ein schlechter Programierer aber ein exellenter Kaufmann ist, liegt er bestimmt goldrichtig.

Gruß Basic

[axelkitzing]

G O L D
Die Rallye beim Edelmetall geht in eine neue Runde!

Im Zuge des jüngsten Anstiegs konnte der Goldpreis
das Hoch vom Mai überwinden. Damit wurde ein weiteres Kaufsignal generiert, das erneutes Aufwärtspotenzial freisetzt.

Allmählich macht es sich bemerkbar, dass in den 90er Jahren das Geld nicht mehr in den Aufbau von Minenaktien, sondern in die High-Tech-Industrie floss. So schlossen in den vergangenen Jahren reihenweise Bergbaugesellschaften ihre Minen, was das Angebot an Edelmetallen gegenüber der Nachfrage verknappt hat. Interessant ist zudem, dass sich auch die Notenbanken, die nach wie vor Goldreserven besitzen, in Zeiten steigender Goldpreise nicht von ihren Beständen nachhaltig trennen werden. Zumindest nimmt der politische Druck ab, Bestände zu veräußern. So übersteigt momentan bereits die Nachfrage das Angebot. Dieser Trend wird mit einer geplanten Einführung einer neuen Währung in Malaysia, dem so genannten Golddinar, noch zunehmen, was die Hausse am Goldmarkt weiter beschleunigen dürfte. Last but not least spricht für Gold auch, dass die chinesische Regierung den Handel mit
Gold wieder freigegeben hat. Da Chinesen weltweit nach den Indern ihr Geld sehr gerne in Gold anlegen, spricht auch diese Tatsache für einen weiterhin anhaltenden Aufschwung beim Edelmetall.

Nach einer jahrelangen Baisse begann der Goldpreis ab 1999 einen Boden auszubilden. Ende 2002 gelang dann mit dem Überwinden des horizontalen Widerstands bei rund 325 US-Dollar die Trendwende. Aufwärts geht es jedoch bereits seit Mitte 2001, wodurch sich ein langfristiger Aufwärtstrend konstruieren lasst (1). Seit Anfang 2002 hat sich ein zweiter, steilerer Aufwärtstrend etabliert (2), der mit dem Rückgang bis im Aprils 2003 noch einmal bestätigt wurde. Nach unten hin hat der Kurs somit seine Grenzen abgesteckt. Nach oben hin ist das Gold gerade dabei, eine Grenze zu brechen. So ist der Kurs im Begriff, den seit Ende der 80er Jahre bestehenden Abwärtstrend (3) nachhaltig zu überwinden. Ein kräftiges Kaufsignal würde ich mit einem Überwinden des horizontalen Widerstands bei rund 380 US-Dollar ergeben. Mit dem Überwinden des kurzfristigen Abwärtstrends im vergangenen Monat zeichnet sich eine derartige Bewegung bald ab. Sollte es hier noch einmal zu einer Pullback-Reaktion zurück zum kurzfristigen Abwärtstrend (4) kommen, eröffnet sich dadurch eine Kaufgelegenheit auf einem niedrigerem Niveau.

Indikatoren
Die Indikatoren zeigen sich weiter positiv, wenngleich vom Stochastik Momentum ein Rückgang in Form einer Pullback-Reaktion nicht unwahrscheinlich ist. Wie aus dem Aroon zu entnehmen ist, befindet sich der Kurs aber weiterhin in einer aufwärts gerichteten Trendphase. Fazit Mit dem Überwinden des kurzfristigen Abwärtstrends wurde ein erstes Kaufsignal generiert, das auf einen baldigen Break des horizontalen Widerstands bei etwa 380 US-Dollar hindeutet. Kurzfristig ist jedoch noch einmal ein kleinerer Rücksetzer möglich, bei welchem der zuvor nach oben durchbrochene Abwärtstrend noch einmal im Zuge
einer Pullback-Reaktion bestätigt wird.

Axel

[proFEiT]

Guten Abend,

schreibt Euch doch mal ein Thread: w:o Steckbrief: „der 32-Fragenkatalog“ für alle vollregistruierten Mitglieder und Thread: w:o-Sofasteckbrief: „der 32-Fragenkatalog“ für die Übrigen

MfG
proFEIT

[Magor]

doch ein gutes Omen ???

Unter Comdirect
Silver Index
14.09.03 03:41 Uhr (welche Zeit eigentlich .. ? )
5,29 USD

+2,12 % [+0,11]
Börse: FOREX
Typ: Index

[Magor]

jetzt habe ich das www abgesucht und kann nirgends eine Bestätigung für die unter Comdirekt aufgezeigte Kursfeststellung zu Silber finden ...
hat jemand eine Site, wo eine Verfolgung der auf der anderen Seite des Globus aktuell gemachten Kurse besser funktionieren?
Auch z.B. Comdirect oder Yahoo, oder auch Stockness bringen Angaben zu Kursen an den längst geöffneten Börsen in Fernost erst ab ca. 4h morgens unserer Zeit.
Warum eigentlich sowas?

[ulfur]

Welche Börsen in Fernost sind schon längst geöffnet?

Lt. Kitco-Grafik beginnt jetzt um 00:00 der Goldhandel in Sydney, gegen 03:00 in Hongkong.

Der Kitcopreis liegt noch unverändert bei 5,18.

[Big-Apple]

Edelmetalle: Goldpreisanstieg verliert an Schwung
15.09.2003

Der Goldpreis dürfte vorerst nicht mehr ganz so rasant steigen. Dies zeigt die nur verhaltene Reaktion auf den Anstieg des Euro am Freitag nach der Veröffentlichung der unerwartet schwachen US-Konjunkturdaten.

Steigt der Euro, nimmt die Nachfrage nach Gold in der Regel zu, da das Edelmetall für Europäer und Asiaten relativ billig ist. Entsprechend steigt der Goldpreis. Der weitere Verlauf hängt nun weiter maßgeblich von den Fonds ab. Deshalb ist schwer abzusehen, wann eine fundamental sicher begründete, weitergehende Konsolidierung des Goldpreises eintritt.

Vor allem am Dienstag konnte Gold allerdings noch einmal zulegen und erreichte in der Spitze 383,20 $ je Unze. Wieder waren Fonds die treibenden Kräfte. Gestützt wurde die Verteuerung in erster Linie dadurch, dass der Euro auf 1,12 $ gestiegen war.

Die anschließende Konsolidierung an den Währungsmärkten führte beim Gold erstmals zu größeren Gewinnmitnahmen durch die Inhaber von Pluspositionen. Sie verstärkten sich im Verlauf der Woche, nachdem die Unterstützungslinie bei 378,50 nach unten durchstoßen worden war. In kurzer Zeit fiel das Metall auf 374,50 $ die Unze, konnte sich aber später noch einmal erholen und notierte bei 378 $.

Teilnehmer orientieren sich an Charttechnik

Da sich die institutionellen Marktteilnehmer aber in der Regel stark an der Charttechnik orientieren, sind die oberen und unteren Linien des aktuellen Aufwärtstrends unbedingt im Auge zu behalten. Charttechnik versucht, aus historischen Kursverläufen die zukünftigen Entwicklungen vorherzusagen.

Im ersten Fall liegt der Widerstand zunächst bei 385 $ und darüber beim Sieben-Jahres-Hoch von Februar. Bei dessen Durchbrechen könnte sich der Aufwärtstrend sogar noch einmal beschleunigen. Auf der anderen Seite gibt es eine wichtige Unterstützung bei jetzt rund 376,50 $, deren Fall weitere Gewinnmitnahmen auslösen dürfte. Darunter liegt der nächste Punkt dann erst bei 369,75 $.

Quelle: http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1063435795331.html?nv=hpm

Weitere Goldseiten: http://www.Gold-Pool.com
.

[Magor]

@ Ulfur
hast Recht, um 22:20 schliefen die in Sydney noch ...
aber, wo ist denn dann diese Kursfeststellung gemacht worden:
Unter Comdirect
Silver Index
14.09.03 03:41 Uhr (welche Zeit eigentlich .. ? )
5,29 USD

+2,12 % [+0,11]
Börse: FOREX
Typ: Index

Lt. Weltzeit kann das dann nur in Wladiwostok, Wellington oder auf den Fidji Inseln gewesen sein : - (


aus jetziger Sicht sieht die Silber-Welt gerade so aus:

[ulfur]

Auszug aus dem Wochenbericht von Leonhard Kaplan (Prospektor Asset Management)über die COT´s :

“Before we move to the Commitment of Traders reports, both futures and options, lets take a gander at the
Bullish Consensus. Please be advised that if you are long the gold or platinum market, AND you are a
contrarian, a very strong scotch on the rocks would help you over the shock of these numbers, as of September 9th.

GOLD 84% from 81% as of September 2nd
SILVER 69% from 60%
PLATINUM 76% from 78%

That’s right, 21 out of 24 analysts surveyed are bullish on gold. I am not sure I have ever seen such high
statistics for AS LONG last as long as we have in the current gold market. Obviously, gold is highly
vulnerable to a sharp correction, IF the speculators lose their resolve and determination and revert to
their historical pattern of selling at the first sign of danger. But, so far, they have not and there is reason to
believe that such frantic speculative selling may be weeks, or perhaps months away. I am very sure it will
happen at some point, but I think that the gold price goes higher first. But, trust me, we will see the $350’s or
$360’s again in gold, at some time, as the market has historically fallen to where ACTUAL physical demand
emerges.

The COT’S:
GOLD
Long Speculative Short Speculative Long Commercial Short Commercial
143,745 24,279 134,875 304,188
+5,451 +9,103 +6,195 +4,567
Small Long Spec Small Short Spec
73,934 24,088
+2,968 +943
During the relevant week, gold prices ran up by about $8 per ounce, and open interest CONTINUES to set new
records, up almost 30,000 contracts. But, we see some minor improvement in the internals of the market. Last
week, the long specs were 6.25 times the shorts, this week this ratio drops rather sharply to 4.50 to 1,
still historically high but much more balanced than previously. Large long speculative funds were not
major majors during the week, only adding marginally to their positions, obviously comfortable being and
staying long. The good news is that we are seeing large speculative shorts now coming into the market, which
will soften the blow if gold prices decline, as they will be buyers, covering their shorts. Long Commercials, I
would guess predominantly jewelry manufacturing concerns, were buyers of futures as they were locking in
their prices for the upcoming Christmas selling season.
All in all, I still look for higher prices, as the market action appears quite favorable. I am also encouraged by the
improvement in the internals of the market, by the change in ownership of futures and options contracts on the
exchange in New York. Recommendations will follow.

SILVER
Long Speculative Short Speculative Long Commercial Short Commercial
61,575 4,373 17,018 107,029
+10,085 -1,394 -1,515 +10,974
During the week, silver prices were roughly unchanged as open interest ballooned by almost 10% in total, to
132,000+ contracts. As is clearly seen above, this is a BATTLE between the large long speculative
concerns and the short commercials, PERIOD. The sharply rising short commercial position demonstrates
that the physical market for silver is horrible, that their inventories and commitments on the long side are
bloating, and therefore, they sell futures to hedge their positions. Speculators, both large and small, are now
long 103,830 contracts, or 519 MILLION ounces of silver, about 5/6 th’s of total global production for
one year. EEK!!
Now, the question is who will flinch first? Will the speculators continue to buy and force the market higher even
though there is no industrial or commercial demand? Or, will they, as they have in the past, become skittish and
sell, cascading prices much lower? Silver is a small market and speculative interest has, and can, overwhelm
the fundamentals of the market.
My bet, perhaps a foolish one, is that we go higher for now. But, I will also wager that this market ends
badly, as it always has in the past. I remember one day in 1987 where I saw silver drop from $11 to $7 in a
matter of an hour or two. All speculative bubbles end badly, and this market will be no exception. But, I would
guess that there is enough momentum to take us higher first. “

[TFischer]

zu diesem Rotznas Rotzbach nur eines:

Wes Brot ich ess, des Lied ich sing!

TFischer

PS: es soll ja Banken geben, die sind dermassen massiv auf den Gold cary trade Zug aufgesprungen, dass sie jetzt jeder $ Goldpreisanstieg zig Millionen kostet.

[bluemoons]

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/HUI%20Wave%20tops.htm

[manfred1_I]

Den Goldexplorer Investika jetzt verstärkt im
Auge behalten.
(nächste 2 Wochen könnnten was an Nachrichten bringen)

[006]

@Teefischer
ich kann mich noch genau erinnern als dieser wresnio rinzraz dings bums da
zusammen mit einem anderen"goldexperten" auf ntv(vor zwei drei jahren) gold abgetan hat(da stand gold ca.bei 270$/oz)
so nach dem motto gold hat keine zukunft,nachfrage ist ständig rückläufig, keine rendite, banken verkaufen ständig grosse mengen gold blablabla....
analysten- meinungen taugen einen dreck
vielleicht weiss er ja für sich wies wirklich bestellt ist ums gold nur sagen tut er das was sein arbeitgeber von ihm verlangt
schönen abed noch allerseits
006

[TFischer]

...Teefischer - habe ich schon lange nicht mehr gehört. Freut mich sehr, dass Du dich daran noch erinnerst.

Man muss bei den Anal ysten 3 Sorten unterscheiden:

1. Die kleinen Soldaten, die immer sagen, was ihnen die Strategen in der Chefetage vorgekaut eingetrichter haben und die selbst absolut keinen Schimmer von der Materie haben.

2. Die Strategen selbst, die die Hintergründe genau kennen und teilweise sogar selbst an diesen mitwirken aber natürlich nur genau das von sich geben, was für die Firma jeweils optimal ist.

3. Die unabhängigen (und nicht gekauften), selbständigen Experten, welche eine ehrliche Meinung vertreten, welche allerdings nicht immer korrekt sein muss, da ihnen das notwendige Insiderwissen natürlich nicht hundert prozentig zur Verfügung steht.

Rotznas - sowieso dürfte, wie Du auch vermutest, zur zweiten Sorte gehören.

Gruss

TFischer

[Jodie1]

Nach wie vor gilt, dass die physische Nachfrage nach Gold die jährliche Produktion der Minen um etwa 1500 t übersteigt.

Da können die Banken/Notenbanken noch so viel verkaufen, irgendwann ist Fort Knox leer und dann sehen wir deutlich höhere Goldpreise.

Die guten Zeiten des Gold carry trade sind endgültig vorbei, dumm, wer immer noch dran glaubt.

CU Jodie

[silvo]

Wer jetzt bei Silber nicht dabei ist, dem ist wirklich nicht zu helfen!




(Es wird keiner gezwungen sich in Gold/Silber zu engagieren)

[bluemoons]

Show Me The Silver

By: David Morgan, Silver Investor, Silver-Investor.com








One of the main ideas of investing in precious metals is to take physical delivery of your purchase. From the picture on the left, there are some who take this seriously. Yes, those are 1000 troy ounce silver bars right off the COMEX. There is still some financial commentary insisting that silver not only exists, it is plentiful and there may even be “secret stockpiles” held by various interest groups, for various reasons.

The CPM Group dismissed the secret stockpile myth years ago, yet is still persists. What this brief missive strives to accomplish is to take a good hard look at the transparent silver market. The transparent silver market is what can be totally verified by everyone, in other words, there can be no dispute, what is accounted for is truly in existence.

The transparent market consists of the COMEX and the TOCOM. For purposes of this discussion I am leaving off the TOCOM inventory because it is so small relative to the COMEX. We find that the total COMEX silver supply is roughly at 106 million ounces. What is so interesting about this fact is that the amount of silver has diminished so significantly over the past few years.

First we note that in 1996 we observed the total silver inventory was about 280 million ounces. Upon the announcement of the Buffett purchase, we notice a decline of over 100 million ounces.

This raises an obvious question, since Berkshire Hathaway shipped the silver to England, why would it need to come off the COMEX? For goodness sake the amount of silver trading done on the LBMA is astronomical. In fact the amount of silver traded in London is equal to the total COMEX silver supply several times over. Just purchase in London and store in London correct?

For those that are familiar with my public essays most now understand the difference between the eligible category and the registered category. Most researchers believe that the dealer inventory is composed of the registered category, and long term investors hold the bulk of the eligible category. Their stored silver is in COMEX-approved banks, but these are mostly long-term investors. Take the time to look carefully at the chart below. Note what has happened to the registered category over the past year. We find that the dealers have control or access to perhaps 44 million ounces of silver now as compared to over 60 million ounces a year ago.





Source: Sharelynx.net

The Eligible category has done the reverse, going from about 40 million ounces to 63 million now. This is a subtle shift and if one concentrates on total amount of silver resting in approved warehouse facilities, the overall total has changed very little. The total remains just over 100 million ounces





Source: Sharelynx.net

Currently September has a total of 891 contracts (as of September 15, 2003) running past First Notice Day. This is not a big number per se, but it does represent over 4 million ounces of silver. There are some that have taken the advice of the CFTC and truly do believe silver is undervalued and “stood for delivery” just as recommended by the CFTC itself! In fact, some have taken matters into their own hands and had delivery made to their own secure location. Take a look at this fellow on the right; he truly understands the meaning of “tangible assets.”

What I would like to suggest is for the reader to think of the entire eligible silver being securely off the exchange and consider what is left; a mere 44 million ounces. Now consider that 4 million ounces are potentially needed for September, this would represent about 10% of the dealer inventory. Would the CFTC stand by its word and protect the investors that are willing to stand for delivery?

The average monthly deficit has been about 10 million ounces. However, the most recent data shows the silver deficit at 5 million ounces per month. If the COMEX became the inventory of last resort for both investors and industry, then the amount of 44 million represents less than one year’s worth of silver.

A few months of four or five million ounces coming off the COMEX and Bullion Dealers associated with the COMEX will definitely be phoning in their orders to the secret stockpile. Perhaps a few could tap the London market and get that paper sent overnight express!

One of the discouraging facts about silver investing is just how bulky it is with the storage problem associated with a large purchase. This is a key reason why the COMEX still holds so much. It is easy to buy and keep it stored at the COMEX. However, let us think outside the box for a moment and explore the reverse. Just how much silver are the dealers hoarding?

A one thousand ounce silver bar is approximately 232 cubic inches. A cubic foot of silver, 12 inches high, by 12 inches wide, by 12 inches deep would be worth about $37,000 U.S. at five dollar per ounce silver.

A Little Perspective Please

Now, before you tell me it is too bulky, consider how many items in a normal household take up one cubic foot and have that high a unit value. Certainly, an automobile is a high cost per unit value and yet most cars or trucks take up considerably more space than one cubic foot, yet the unit cost of an average car is under $37,000.00.

If you consider gold, well it is simply out of the question. Gold is over seventy times more valuable per ounce than silver currently and is more dense than silver. Therefore gold would take up even less space and be well over seventy times more valuable.

Ever pay attention to your local gas station? The dimensions vary of course, but for fun I took a rough look at one close to my neighborhood. It stood 18 feet at the overhead and 40 feet by 60 feet. If we put ALL of the COMEX silver into a huge cube, it would cover this gas station’s floor space and reach a height of six feet.

Now, I am not suggesting that this amount could fit into your home safe, but what I do want to emphasize is what happens when we compare this to other commodities. Take a look at our example. How much gasoline is available? How many gas stations do you pass on your normal trip to work? Consider all the gas stations in your town, state or country and then compare that to the amount of silver that exists. The next time you fill up with gas, think about this illustration. Is silver really too bulky for me personally? Is this really a good reason not to invest in physical silver?

Certainly, someone will wish to point out that gasoline is consumed and must be replaced, and my reply is yes, and so is silver. Most commodities are consumed: cotton, wood, oil, soybeans, lumber, wheat, corn and sugar. I am sure you have the idea by now. With all those other commodities, the amount of space or more appropriately volume required is immense compared to the silver market.

More Demand Ahead

Many inquiries came my way about the recent blackout in the North East and what role superconductivity could play in correcting this problem. See my previous article, Silver Solves The Energy Crisis. Silver may help solve the energy problem, but even silver cannot solve the governor problem.

Mr. Kurzman, an energy analyst with New York investment bank H.C. Wainwright, said, “Superconductors really provide the bandwidth necessary to run the grid in the future.” It does indeed seem that silver has a role to play in the electrical distribution system around the world.

From our most recent newsletter, we reported that American Superconductor shipped 18 miles of High Temperature Superconductor (HTS) to China. China will someday require more electrical power than any nation on earth and this will become important to silver consumption moving forward.

The Silver Institute has stated that the demand for HTS may be as high as 50 million ounces on an annual basis. Compare that with the amount remaining on the COMEX. The market is aware of this and other potential increases in silver demand, for example a recent press release by the Silver Institute, "U.S. Senate Subcommittee Holds Hearing on Silver-Based Biocides as an Alternative Treatment for Wood Preservation" [See]

This potential silver demand would be about 80 million ounces again on an annual basis. These two new applications could potentially require 130 million ounces of silver each year. This is equivalent to Warren Buffett renewing his purchase on an annual basis. Yet the market is just now working itself over five dollars per ounce U.S.

Is Paper Too Bulky?

Before closing a little comparison to the paper market might just be appropriate. You see right now the trade deficit of the U.S. is over 500 billion dollars per year. This breaks down to one million dollars per minute. Yes, one million dollars per minute!

Thinking in terms of time, the entire silver market of 106 million ounces would require 530 minutes or about nine hours of time using the amount of borrowing the U.S. currently needs. But perhaps a more humorous look is to see how the volume of paper “stacks up” against our silver supply.

A million dollars in 100 dollar bills has a volume of 643 cubic inches. A million dollars in one dollar bills would be 64,300 cubic inches or 37 cubic feet. But after six hours, the trade imbalance is equal in volume of one dollar bills to the COMEX silver supply. To use my earlier example, each day, four gas stations would be filled with one dollar bills and every month 120 gas stations would be filled with one dollar bills.

This example is provided mainly for humor, but the point remains: if the total debt of the U.S. were to be paid with one dollar bills, it calls into question if there are enough trees on the planet to print that much paper. Certainly, we all know that today financial assets are held in a computer memory at our bank or financial institution. Lose electrical power and our “assets are on hold.”

With that thought in mind, is it possible for you to hold some assets outside the conventional establishment—an asset that needs no electrical power and is recognized as essential now and in the future? Perhaps it is time to bulk up your own portfolio with silver and gold.

© 2003 David Morgan. All rights reserved.


-- Posted Wednesday, September 17 2003



Website: Silver-Investor.com
Email: [e-mail]

Mr. Morgan publishes a private newsletter for serious precious metals investors. He hosts the web site: Silver-Investor.com. He has been a private economist for over two decades his background in engineering , with an advanced degree in Economics/Finance. He has been interviewed on Don McAlvany`s radio talk show, Financial Sense Newshour, Hard Money Watch, and appeared on television. Currently he does an internet radio wrap up each Friday discussing the economy and precious metals. Mr. Morgan was published in Global Investor regarding ten rules of silver investing. Currently, he is writing a book on silver.
Previous Articles by David Morgan

[ulfur]

Anleger spekulieren auf Gold-Hausse

Von Dieter Claassen, Regine Palm

Die Goldanleger haben gestern neue Kaufargumente bekommen. Das renommierte Londoner Analysehaus Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) prognostizierte in seiner Halbjahresanalyse einen Preisanstieg auf über 400 Dollar je Feinunze (31,1035 Gramm).

DÜSSELDORF/LONDON. Gestern notierte Gold bei knapp 375 Dollar. Allerdings setzten derzeit viele Investoren über Terminkontrakte auf eine Gold-Hausse. Dies könnte bei einem Drehen des Marktes zu einem Preisrutsch führen, weil diese Kontrakte dann rasch aufgelöst werden dürften. „Die Aussichten dafür, dass der Preis noch vor Jahresschluss die 400-Dollar-Marke erreicht und kurz überschreitet“, sind nach Einschätzung von GFMS-Chef Philip Klapwijk gut. Das Vertrauen in die Aktienmärkte sei weiterhin eher gering, der Dollar strebe wohl weiter abwärts, und für eine Beruhigung der politischen Lage lägen keinerlei Anzeichen vor.

Das Edelmetall ist bereits seit einigen Wochen wieder verstärkt im Blickfeld der Anleger. Hauptgründe für die höheren Goldnotierungen in diesem Jahr waren vor allem die Zweifel an der Wertbeständigkeit des Dollars, die wachsende Sorge über die weltpolitische Lage und die Enttäuschung vieler Anleger an den Aktienbörsen. In der Spitze stieg der Goldpreis – trotz anziehender Aktienkurse – auf deutlich über 380 Dollar je Unze. Er entfernte sich damit weiter vom 22-Jahrestief bei 250 Dollar im ersten Quartal 2001.

GFMS zeigt sich vorsichtig optimistisch, dass die Goldnachfrage durch Investments noch zunehmen wird. Um Preise von 390 Dollar oder mehr zu erreichen, muss laut Klapwijk das „bestehende Potenzial ausgeschöpft werden“. Insgesamt sagt GFMS im „Gold Survey 2003 Update 1“ für das zweite Halbjahr 2003 gegenüber dem Vorjahr eine 40-prozentige Zunahme der Goldanlage auf 280 Tonnen (t) voraus. Dies seien sogar 60 t mehr, als die Goldproduzenten durch die vorzeitige Auflösung von Terminkontrakten (Dehedging), sprich durch den Rückkauf von Gold, nachfragen würden.

Sorgen bereitet indes die hohe Zahl an Terminkontrakten an der New Yorker Metallhandelsbörse Comex, mit der Investoren auf eine Gold-Hausse setzen. Die Zahl hat vor kurzem den höchsten Stand seit 20 Jahren erreicht. Michael Jalonen von Merrill Lynch hält den Markt derzeit für überhitzt. Immerhin entspreche das Volumen der auf Hausse setzenden Kontrakte an der Comex per Saldo etwa 365 t Gold. Dies seien fast 10 % des Weltbedarfs. Auch Markus Mezger, Gold-Experte der BW Bank, wertet die hohe Kontraktzahl als „sehr negatives Vorzeichen“. Seiner Ansicht nach stecken hinter den jüngsten Preissteigerungen vor allem „kurzfristige, spekulative Interessen“. Er rät daher Anlegern, „in den nächsten Wochen und Monaten eher vorsichtig bei Gold zu sein“.

Und selbst der insgesamt optimistische Klapwijk mahnt die Haussiers an der Comex zur Vorsicht. Bevor die 400-Dollar-Marke erreicht werde, sollten sich die Anleger auf einen vorübergehenden Preisrückgang einstellen, wenn ein Teil der Long-Kontrakte liquidiert werde.

Mezger begründet seine Vorsicht zudem mit dem Dehedging der Produzenten, das vor allem im ersten Halbjahr die Nachfrageseite gestärkt hatte. „Das Tempo geht aus dieser Bewegung heraus“, sagt Mezger. Schon in der zweiten Jahreshälfte werde dadurch ein Teil der Nachfrage wegfallen. Und noch sei unklar, wie diese Lücke geschlossen werden könne. In den nächsten Monaten sieht der BW-Experte daher einen Rückgang des Goldpreises auf 330 bis 340 Dollar. Auf längere Sicht ist er aber ebenfalls optimistisch für das Edelmetall, sobald das Motiv für den Kauf heiße: Gold als Inflationsschutz. Bisher sprächen aber die Inflationsraten eben noch nicht dafür.

Merrill-Spezialist Jalonen hat überdies eine saisonale Regelmäßigkeit beim Goldpreis festgestellt: Praktisch seit 1989 sei der Preis ab Mitte Juli regelmäßig um etwa 9 % bis 10 % gestiegen und in der Regel spät im November wieder um knapp 7 % gesunken. „Die Geschichte wird sich auch in diesem Jahr wiederholen“, sagt Jalonen. Er prognostiziert einen Preisrückgang auf 350 bis 360 Dollar.

HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 18. September 2003, 07:32 Uhr
http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

[ulfur]

Über die steigende Bedeutung von Explorerfirmen von Lawrence Roulston:

With the rising gold price and the steadily growing level of investor interest in gold companies, the gold producing companies are coming to grips with the fact that reserves have fallen drastically over the past few years. When the gold price was down, exploration spending was slashed and the pipeline of new projects has been depleted for many gold companies.

To simply make up for annual gold production, the industry must replace 80 million ounces of gold each year. The actual accomplishment has been a mere one-quarter of that target.

Some of the major producers tout the fact that they have maintained reserves (or at least have not lost too much ground). However, they are hiding the fact that the new reserves have come about by mergers. By exchanging massive numbers of new shares for other company’s reserves, they have seriously diluted the amount of gold backing each share of the gold company. (The February 2003-2 issue presented a detailed case study of this issue.)

Investors are now demanding that gold companies find and develop new reserves, and management is responding. The major companies are now aggressively courting those junior companies that have promising exploration projects, and those with the best prospects of coming up with new discoveries. Institutional investors are keenly aware of the growing importance of the junior companies: they have invested literally billions of dollars of new investment into these companies this year.

That immense amount of money has enabled several of the junior companies to secure some exceptional advanced stage projects. Those projects and a number of new discoveries are advancing quickly. Overall, the activity level in the junior and mid-sized mining industry is at the highest level in at least six years.

It is only a matter of time until we see more acquisition deals, where the producing companies buy junior and mid-tier companies with development projects. Those deals will come at much higher prices than the juniors are currently trading at. That assertion is based on the simple reality of the actual prices that have been paid for previous acquisitions.

A major brokerage firm compiled a comprehensive list of acquisitions in the gold industry for the past few years. Based on that list of completed deals, it is interesting to note that the weighted average price paid per ounce of reserves for deals completed in 2001 and 2002 works out to $112 per ounce.

It is important to understand that the $112 per ounce figure is based on reserves, or at least on measured and indicated resources. Many juniors have big deposits, but they are at earlier stages of definition. That is, more work is required to formally quantify reserves or measured and indicated resources within those deposits.

Many junior companies are trading at share prices that impute values of only $10 per ounce or less for inferred resources (the level of resource with least confidence). Owning a junior company whose deposit is most likely to advance from an inferred resource to reserve status can pay off in the two ways:

? The value of the deposit will move toward the average acquisition value as the project advances; and

? Investors will gain by holding a big exposure to the gold market that will most likely increase in value with a continued move in the gold price.

Auszug aus:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Resopp/sep172003.html

[ulfur]

Mittwoch 17. September 2003, 22:00 Uhr
US-Haushaltsdefizit wächst dramatisch

Washington (AP) Die US-Regierung hat in den ersten elf Monaten des laufenden Haushaltsjahres bereits 400,5 Milliarden Dollar Schulden gemacht, doppelt so viele wie im selben Zeitraum des Vorjahres. Die am Mittwoch vom Finanzministerium veröffentlichten Zahlen werfen ein Schlaglicht auf die steigende Finanznot in Washington. Die Regierung von Präsident George W. Bush schätzt, dass die Schulden bis Ende des Fiskaljahres am 30. September auf 455 Milliarden anwachsen werden. Den bisherigen Schuldenrekord
stellte George Bush Senior im Jahr 1992 auf: Damals belief sich das Haushaltsdefizit auf 290,4 Milliarden Dollar.

Bush Junior macht die kriselnde Konjunktur sowie die Kosten für den Irak-Krieg und den Kampf gegen den Terrorismus für die dramatische Entwicklung verantwortlich. Die Demokraten verweisen dagegen auf Bushs Steuersenkungen und aus ihrer Sicht kontraproduktive wirtschaftspolitische Entscheidungen.

In den ersten elf Monaten des Haushaltsjahres 2003 gingen die Staatseinnahmen um 4,2 Prozent auf 1,59 Billionen Dollar zurück, nach Angaben des Haushaltsbüros des Kongresses (CBO) vor allem wegen rückläufiger Steuereinnahmen: Der Einbruch bei Einkommenssteuern liegt bei 8,1 Prozent, die Einnahmen aus der Körperschaftssteuer gingen gar um 13,5 Prozent zurück. Die Ausgaben stiegen dagegen um sieben Prozent auf 1,99 Billionen Dollar.

http://de.news.yahoo.com/030917/12/3n8t4.html

[tamara93]

aus faz.net :


Rohstoffe
Gold Fields hält Goldpreis über 400 Dollar für möglich

17. September 2003 Der Goldpreis hat seinen jüngst unternommenen Angriff nach oben unterbrechen müssen. Der Feinunze gelang es bei diesem Ausbruchsversuch nicht, das im Februar markierte Hoch nachhaltig zu überwinden. Dadurch zurückgeworfen kommt es jetzt zu einer Konsolidierung, der die Notiz derzeit bei knapp 373 Dollar bindet.

Doch die auf Prognosen zum Gold spezialisierte britische Beratungsfirma Gold Fields Mineral Services gibt sich deswegen noch nicht geschlagen. In ihrem neu veröffentlichten Gold Survey 2003 trauen die dortigen Experten dem Goldpreis noch in diesem Jahr den Vorstoß in den Bereich von 390 Dollar oder vielleicht sogar auf Notierungen über 400 Dollar zu. Das wäre dann gleichbedeutend mit den höchsten Notierungen seit fast acht Jahren. Schon im Vorjahr war der Goldpreis um 25 Prozent gestiegen und damit so stark wie seit 1979 nicht mehr.

Zwischenzeitliche Korrekturen sind nicht auszuschließen

In Überschwang verfällt man bei Gold Fields Mineral Services deswegen aber nicht, da man glaubt, daß es zuletzt mit dem Goldpreis „zu schnell und zu stark“ nach oben gegangen ist. Denn die Möglichkeit einer deutlicheren Korrektur wird ebenfalls nicht ausgeschlossen, da der Abbau bestehender spekulativer Kaufpositionen anstehen könnte und bei zu hohen Notierungen das Interesse der Schmuckproduzenten aus Indien und anderen Länder nachlassen dürfte.

Zudem drohten bei hohen Preisen auch verstärkte Verkäufe von Seiten der Notenbanken. Es sei daher denkbar, daß sich der Preis entweder nach dem prognostizierten Anstieg oder auch schon zuvor noch einmal bis auf 350 Dollar je Feinunze zurückbildet. Unter dieses Niveau soll der Preis aber nicht mehr fallen, zumal dann auch die Goldverarbeiter wieder versuchen dürften, ihre Bestände aufzustocken.

Gold muß sich neue Käuferschichten erschließen

Als Vorbedingungen für den erwarteten Preisanstieg sagt Philip Klapwijk, Managing Director bei Gold Fields Mineral Services. „Um in den Bereich von 390 Dollar oder darüber vorzustoßen, muß die Nachfrage noch stärker zunehmen. Aber die Voraussetzung dafür, daß es so kommt, sind gut. Schließlich sehen die Aktienmärkte wackelig aus, der Dollar dürfte sich abschwächen und auch im politischen Umfeld zeichnet sich keine Beruhigung ab.“

Und weiter: „Ein Teil des jüngstes Interesses an Gold beruhte zwar nur auf Spekulanten, die auf einen Trend aufspringen. Aber es gibt auch unzweifelhaft ein wachsendes Interesse von Anlegern, die sich gegen die bestehenden Unsicherheiten absichern wollen.“

Nachlassen dürften nach Einschätzung von Gold Fields Mineral Services im zweiten Halbjahr der Abbau der Absicherungspositionen der Goldproduzenten, der in den ersten sechs Monaten ein Rekordniveau erreicht hat. Und was die Goldproduktion angeht, wird für das Gesamtjahr 2003 nach einem Plus von 1,8 Prozent im ersten Halbjahr mit einem Rückgang von 0,7 Prozent auf 2.600 Tonnen gerechnet.












Der Chart zeigt die Entwicklung des Goldpreises.

[jeffery2]

Na wunderbar, jetzt lesen wir den gleichen Mist zum 5.mal.
J2

[ghazella]

Was hat denn das zu bedeuten:

http://news.onvista.de/latest_news.html?ID_NEWS=5302347

"G7-Notenbanken erörtern neues Goldabkommen" ????

Gruß gh

[Cashlover]

Wie lange können eigentlich Goldpreis UND Aktien noch dermaßen synchron nach oben laufen?

Ich meine, mal rein hypothetisch, wäre es nicht möglich, dass der POG noch mal kräftig unter Druck kommt, bevor er tatsächlich in die höheren, 3-stelligen Bereiche marschiert?

Diese ganze Diskussion um das Goldabkommen wären da doch sehr hilfreich, um den Goldpreis noch ma richtig unter Druck zu bekommen, gleichzeitig könnte man die Aktienindizes noch mal ordentlich pushen, mit dem Argument, Liquidität werde jetzt in weiter in den Aktienmarkt gedrückt.

Letztlich hätten dann alle Protagonisten in diesem Thread irgendwie richtig gelegen, was die Einschätzung des Goldpreises betrifft.

Ich meine, viele, die bezüglich der Entwicklung des POG nicht völlig überzeugt sind, könnte man so auch aus ihrem Investment raustreiben.

Dazu bräuchte der Goldpreis nicht einmal ins bodenlose fallen, es reicht wahrscheinlich schon, den Trend ordentlich zu stören?

Wahrscheinlich ist das hier auch schon angesprochen worden.

Lange kann jedenfalls ein gleichzeitiger up-move von POG und Aktien nicht mehr anhalten, oder?

mfg

[jeffery2]

Nur die Überschrift gelesen ? Der Artikel gibt doch etwas her.
Das laufende "Washingtoner Abkommen" zu Begrenzung der Goldverkäufe soll verlängert werden. Darum stieg angeblich gestern der Goldpreis.
Und allen wird nochmals gesagt, die Amis verkaufen kein Gold . So, so, ist doch nix wert????????ß
Montag wissen wir mehr.
J2

[Teffie]

Was sagt ihr als Goldexperten zu diesen Bohrergebnissen!

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/news.asp?newsid=1915393&tick=…

Und wie findet ihr IMZ gibt hier schon 2 Threads im Goldboard dazu!

Würd mich über eure Meinung freuen!

MFG Teffie!

[ulfur]

Nicht alle Notenbanken wollen ihre Goldbestände vermindern:

Reuters
Russia wants to boost gold reserves-Central Bank
Sunday September 21, 11:58 am ET


DUBAI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Russia would like to increase the percentage of foreign exchange reserves it holds in gold but it is not in a position to do any buying at the moment, first deputy governor of the central bank said on Sunday.


Oleg Vyugin also said the central bank cannot move to a more flexible currency regime until an oil stabilisation fund has been set up by the government.

"Our gold reserves... are around seven to eight percent of our total international reserves and actually we think that we have to get at least 10 percent of international reserves," Vyugin told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Dubai.

"We are not in a position to buy at the moment but generally we would like to increase (the gold)... At this moment we are limited because we also have to manage monetary policy."

[Tippgeber1]

@alle Gold Freaks

Gold steigt und steigt, wie die meisten das hier ja
vorausahnten...Fein

Heute bei 386,97$.....also wenn das so weitergeht,
sind die 400$ schnell erreicht und dann sind die von
Siegel als fair eingestuften 600$ bald erreichbar....

Aber auch die 600$ werden später erst eine kleine
Zwischenetappe sein zu weit höheren Kursen.....Die Leute
werden sich noch die Augen reiben....Die Börsen sind m.E.
total überbewertet(außer die Emerging Markets und
Osteuropa) und eine Korrektur ist überfällig....davon
profitiert das Gold....steigen die Börsen, schadet es dem
Gold auch nicht mehr wie früher häufig zu
beobachten....alles in allem...herrscht hier eine
klassische win-win Situation vor...egal was passiert, mit
Gold gewinnt man immer...


Kann es so leicht sein....?


Grüssels
Tippgeber

[hpoth]

@Tipgeber,

Ma kan das so sehen, aber vergesse nicht die Zentralbanken, bei 410-420 werden die auf den Plan treten und zunächst einmal wieder alles zerstören, der Weg fürs Gold ist eben lang und sehr schwierig.gruß hpoth

[bluemoons]

Silver Stocks -- Comparative Valuations

By: Jason Hommel, GoldIsMoney.com





For the past few months, I`ve been researching and acquiring silver stocks. It has been a very profitable few months, especially since June, as I`ve picked some of the best upward movers. It has been easy and rewarding work, and the upward potential of some of these stocks remains mind boggling.

Just how did I put a value on silver companies? I did not value current production, profits, or P/E ratios. I did not buy the biggest names, with the experienced miners. Personally, I believe we are entering a bull market in silver. Thus, I think the most important thing is the number of ounces of silver in the ground that the company has title to and owns, and then dividing the market cap of the company by those ounces. This way, you get a "cost per oz. in the ground" which tells you how much you are paying for what you get.

Now, the CEO`s of the mines will mostly try to convince you that their ounces are better than the other guy`s ounces, for various reasons. Some of these reasons are that they have ounces that are lower cost to mine, or that they come with the bonus of other minerals, or that they have existing infrastructure, or the backing of wealthy investors, or that their ounces can be open pit mined, and so on. And some of those factors are certainly important and add to the value of the company. But the most important questions to remember are: "How many ounces does the company have?", and, "What does it cost to acquire those ounces when buying the company stock?"

I care little about current profits. In fact, I have a negative bias for silver stocks that are selling silver right now since I consider silver to be undervalued. I am also an investor in physical silver. But a company that is selling silver right now, at a loss, is virtually giving away title to company assets, literally destroying shareholder value. Aware shareholders should sell those companies and buy physical silver with the proceeds. So, let`s start comparing silver companies.

It`s very simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get, and how much does it cost? Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.

Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I may have made mistakes. I probably did. I`m human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.

In order to get the latest information, call the company you are interested in. They love to hear from interested prospective investors, and they have the time, since most are not actively engaged in mining or "running a mining business". Their main business right now mostly consists of drumming up investor interest so they can raise the capital to drill and explore their properties so that they can raise the really big capital to start up an active mine.

This information is not intended as a solicitation for any company.

All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.

I may be wrong.

Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Mining stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, hedge the price of YOUR silver by locking in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can`t franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.

Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person. That`s what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don`t trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I`m not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I`m just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world.

I can`t tell you how you should invest your money, of course. Reason being is that I don`t know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.

That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies.

HL:
http://hecla-mining.com/
Phone: [phone]
109 mil shares @ $6.82 share
$748 mil MC
near zero debt, cash: $113 mil
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver equivalent oz.)
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced 2 mil)
Total silver = 53.7 mil
$748 mil MC / 53.7 mil = $13.9/oz.
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
Plus 29 mil silver equiv (for the 412,000 oz gold)
$748 mil / 82 mil = $9.12/oz.

Additional comments: I don`t understand Hecla. They seem way overvalued. I called investor relations, and they could give me no estimates for "inferred resources." Given the numbers, selling 9 million ounces of silver per year, and a 40 million oz. reserve, it seems they will have no silver left in 4.4 years. This is probably wrong. They indicated they would not go out of business in 4.4 years. Perhaps they continually add to reserves. They could not say what their historical reserve picture looked like. They could not say whether their reserves had been growing, staying the same, or shrinking. I don`t know why anyone would pay such a high price for an ounce of silver in the ground. It`s a truly shockingly high valuation. They are only one company of two with a listing on the NYSE. This may be their advantage, and also they have been around for over 100 years. Also, they are a producer of silver. I think that is a disadvantage, but others think differently.

Personally, I think that either they are fools or I am. I certainly will admit that I`m confused by Hecla. Why hold 113 million dollars worth of cash at the beginning of a bull market in silver? It makes no sense to me. Cash is trash in inflation. They should be buying physical silver, not selling. They could buy 21 million ounces of silver at $5.25 with that cash. That might be enough to break the back of the silver manipulation game over at the COMEX. There are only 45 million ounces of silver in the "registered" category at the moment. Hecla could also use that cash to buy other silver resources in the ground. Why aren`t they? Maybe they are.

I heard they have properties in Mexico and Venezuela that they are exploring. But I found little info about that at their web site.

I also think they should be issuing shares like crazy, given how pricey their stock is relative to the rest of the silver stocks below, as you will see. But they didn`t ask me to run their company, and they got along just fine without me for over 100 years. And what do I know, anyway? But at the very least, they should have somebody over at investor relations who can answer an inquiry. Maybe they don`t have assets to very much more silver in the ground, and maybe that`s why they had a hard time answering my question. Good luck to owners of Hecla. I think they will need it. I don`t own any shares, and I see no reason to own it.

Maybe part of the problem is the restrictive laws in the U.S. that virtually destroyed the U.S. mining industry. Maybe U.S. companies cannot claim or talk about "indicated resources" which perhaps are a technical term of Canadian mining law. I don`t know. Do your own research.

WHT:
http://www.wheatonriver.com/
421 mil shares @ $1.97
$849 mil MC
zero debt, cash: $27 mil
P & P reserves 4 mil gold equiv oz.
(x 70 = 280 mil silver equiv???)
annualized production of: 425,000 ounces of gold and six million ounces of silver
= depletion in 10 years.
= production oz. to dollars x 350 = $148 mil gold, x 5 = $30 mil silver
= earnings $.05/share??? so low!!!???
$849 mil MC / 280 mil oz. = $3.03/oz.

Additional comments: Wheaton River is ramping up production. Perhaps they are also growing the "ounce in the ground estimates". But given current estimates, they have the second highest cost per ounce around. Very pricey. Why buy it? I don`t know. It seems that over half their production comes from gold, and not silver. They have the highest market cap of the "silver miners".

CDE:
www.coeur.com
= 178 mil shares @ 3.55
$634.2 mil MC
D/E = 1.17 (converting debt to shares)... (may add ~40-100 mil shares)
cash $38 mil
San Bartolome (Bolivia) reserves 146 mil silver
Silver Valley Silver reserves 32 mil silver
Rochester reserves 43 mil silver
Cerro Bayo reserves 3.7 mil silver
Total: 224.7 mil silver
(Produced 14.8 mil silver in 2002)
$634.2 mil MC / 224.7 mil oz = $2.82/oz.

Additional comments: Third most expensive silver company on this list. They also have a NYSE listing. Maybe that explains things. Maybe some institutional money managers are limited to NYSE silver stocks. Or maybe people think a NYSE listing means "credibility". I don`t. CDE is also a significant silver producer, 14.8 million ounces. And I think that is a negative. Debt is another negative.

FSR.TO
http://www.firstsilver.com/
37 mil shares @ price 1.41 (CAN) x .73 dollar/CAN =
indicated resourcs 30 mil oz.
$38 mil / 30 mil oz. = $1.26/oz.

Additional comments: Still pricey. The stocks get cheaper. Keep reading. But pay attention to those prices at the end of each company valuation. Remember, these valuations, if taken as an average, show the potential of the cheaper ones and may give you price targets for when to sell. If the dollar starts dropping like crazy, remember that a dollar per oz in the ground today is about 1/5th an ounce of silver, which might help to guide you in the future.

WTZ or WTC.TO
www.westernsilvercorp.com
33.4 mil shares @ $5.26 share CAN (x.73 to convert to dollars)
$175.7 mil MC
x .73 = $128.3
Indicated potential metal recoveries over the life of mine are 112,278,711 ounces of silver
not actively mining
The capital cost of the project is estimated to be US $148,628,400
$128.3mil MC / 112 mil oz. = $1.14/oz.

Additional comments: Note the capital cost to get the mining started. $148 million dollars. That`s huge. Remember that number. I think it`s the highest I`ve seen. Apex silver might be a higher cost to get started, but I forget because I don`t care much about SIL anymore.

SIL:
http://www.apexsilver.com/
36.6 mil shares @ $15.20
$556 mil MC
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
$556 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $1.22/oz.

Additional comments: Still way too expensive. This one has a lot of zinc. That`s an added bonus that is not factored in. Several writers have been saying zinc prices will be heading up soon, so that`s an added bonus. And, they are not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. That`s also a plus. The management also seems to understand that silver will move upwards a lot. Another plus. Finally, George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10% I read recently. Another plus.

I once advocated buying SIL. At the time, I thought there were only 5 real silver companies to choose from, and this was in the top 3, in the group of SSRI, PAAS and SIL, and excluding HL and CDE. I was wrong. There are many silver opportunities, not just five, and this is one of the most expensive, even with the zinc bonus. So, I sold SIL for better opportunities, and it has paid off well for me.

EXN.V:
http://www.excellonresources.com (does not work in netscape?)
2002 annual report:
48 mil shares outstanding @ .175 CZN x .72 =
$5.67 mil MC
gross value of mineralization is $31.4 million. / $5.2 = 6 mil oz. silver equiv?
$5.67 / 6 = $.94/oz.

Additional comments: After writing my last article on silver, in January 2003, several people brought this one to my attention. It`s still expensive.

SVL.V:
http://www.silvercrestmines.com/
17.8 mil shares @ 1.44 share
$25.6 mil MC
Indicated resources of silver 30 mil oz. (SOZ.)
17.8 mil shares x .84 CZN x .72dollar/can = $10.8 mil MC
$25.6 mil MC / 30 mil oz. = $.85 /oz. in the ground.

Additional comments: Well, well, well. Finally we are under a dollar for that "ounce in the ground". But it`s still expensive.

MFL.TO:
MFN
http://www.minefinders.com/index.html
28 mil shares @ $11.00
$308 mil MC
measured & indicated 2.3 mil oz gold, 116 mil oz.silver
+ inferred 1.1 mil oz. gold, 40 mil oz. silver
Totals: 3.4 mil oz. gold, 156 mil oz. silver.
~ silver conversion = 3.4 x 70 = 283 mil??? + 156 mil oz. silver = 394 mil oz. silver
(only 40% is silver, the rest gold)
$308 mil MC / 400 mil oz. = $.77/oz.

Additional comments: In case you have not realized it by now, this list is organized from most expensive on top, cheapest at the bottom. Read on.

PAAS:
http://panamericansilver.com/
52 mil shares @ $11.17
$582.3 mil MC
D/E .08 cash: $12 mil.
10 silver properties (3 in production)
produced 7 mil oz. silver in 2001:
February 2003 presentation reported total reserves including peru stockpiles of 874.3 million ounces
earnings -$.77/share???!!!
$582.3 mil MC / 874.3 mil oz. = $.66/oz.

Additional Comments: PAAS is one of the few silver producers on this list. Thus, they are a "silver miner" as their investor relations person will painstakingly point out. The other companies who do not mine silver, but merely own silver properties and drill them, are not "silver miners," nor are they "silver mining companies". They are "silver properties," or "silver opportunities," or "silver speculations," I guess. Ok, but that still does not justify selling silver at firesale prices, in my book.

PAAS recently went into debt in order to ramp up production. I am strongly biased against debt. But it`s a convertible debenture, so the debt can be converted into stock. They know and believe higher silver prices are coming, and their strategy is to be in solid production mode when the higher price hits. In the meantime, though, the extra production will delay the inevitable silver boom, and they are destroying shareholder value. I also advocated buying PAAS. I made about a 40% profit. And I recently sold. I sold because I think there are better opportunities out there.

SSRI:
http://www.silver-standard.com/
39.4 mil shares @ $7.94
$312 mil MC
debt free, cash: $10 mil
not mining or producing
15 properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 300.4 million ounces of silver
plus inferred resources totaling 366 million ounces of silver
=666 mil oz.
+ 2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 154 mil oz. silver. (154+666=820. 154/820 = 19% gold)
= 743 mil oz.
$312 MC / 824 mil oz. = $.38/oz.

Additional comments: Finally, we are getting down to a good price. I also advocated buying SSRI, and I recently sold for about a 70% profit. Not because SSRI is necessarily bad, but merely because I wanted to buy what I felt were cheaper "ounces in the ground".

Let`s pause for a moment here. Consider the market capitalization of all these companies so far.

HL: $748 mil MC
WHT: $849 mil MC
CDE: $634.2 mil MC
WTC.TO: $128.3mil MC
FSR.TO $38 mil MC
SIL: $556 mil MC
EXN.V $5.7 mil MC
SVL.V $25.6 mil MC
MFL.TO $308 mil MC
PAAS: $582.3 mil MC
SSRI: $312 mil MC

That`s a lot of value. I think the stock-holders of these companies should re-evaluate their holdings. They should really consider buying physical silver which is "money in the hand" and not "in the granite". Mining is risky. Many of these companies are very highly valued. The point of silver investing is to "buy low," not "buy high".

The combined market cap of these "silver companies" is about $4,186 million, or about $4.2 Billion. And yet, there are only 45 million ounces of registered silver available at the COMEX. That seems odd don`t you agree? The "market cap" of that remaining available physical silver at $5.25/oz. is $236 million. I think some of the shareholders of the companies above should wise up and realize they should buy some physical silver which is cheap, and sell the companies which are relatively expensive.

I recently read "Silver Bonanza" by Blanchard. I got a used copy for under $5 from Amazon.com. The book is out of print, was printed in 1993 and at the time sold for up to $70 per copy. He recommended three silver stocks in that book. CDE, FSR.V, and SSO.V, now SSRI. He recommended CDE because it was big. Quote on p. 179: "If you are interested in playing the silver bull market through silver shares, you have to own CDE". Big mistake! In 1993, the price of CDE was between $10-$20 share. Today, it`s $3.55 with a 52 week low of $1.10. Bigger is not better. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Buy low and SELL high.

Now, most of the better-valued silver companies that I will present below have much smaller market caps than the average market caps of the ones above. The owners of the above silver companies quite simply cannot all sell high and buy low. The smaller companies simply do not have the capacity to absorb that much buying power. Only a few can buy low and sell high. The masses, unfortunately, cannot do so. But physical silver can absorb the buying power, or at least, it should. And if it cannot, then the exploding price of the physical silver market should continue to light a fire under all these silver stocks.

CZN:
http://www.canadianzinc.com/
44 mil shares (fully diluted) @ .41 CAN x .73 dollar/CZN
$13 mil MC
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
96 mil oz. silver reserves ??? 67 mil oz.??? (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones!)
$13 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.18/oz.
$13 mil MC / 100+ mil oz. = $.13/oz. or less.

Additional comments: CZN exploded in price this week, moving up about 100% from $.22 CAN to a high of $.50 CAN/share on Thursday. There was a press release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/030916/b286e2eed11e145bccb2f4bc6c1a…

I note several very, very positive things about this company.

1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were destroyed by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to get the mine running. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million to get the mine up and running. That`s much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices. The company can mine, at a profit, at current silver and zinc prices.
3. The company is named "Canadian Zinc" because at current prices, three times as much money is in the zinc. Therefore, a price per oz. of silver just does not do the price justice. The company can raise $20 million capital to start the mine, and mine at a profit today. Raising the $20 million, will be much easier as the investment markets for metals continues to improve. And remember, at $15/oz. for silver, half the money will come from silver. At $30/oz silver, 2/3rds will come from silver.

I own a substantial share of CZN. I started buying at the very low in June, at 9 cents CAN. My average buy price was 14 cents CAN. I did not sell into the rally. I`ve done very well on this one.

CDU.V:
28.3 million shares fully diluted (assuming all the options and warrants are exercised, which are NOT all "in the money")
x 1.66 CAN (x .73 US/CAN) = 1.21
$34 mil MC
Proven & Probable: NONE! (explorer).
Speculated reserves ~ 100 - 250 or more mil?
$33 mil MC / 250 mil oz. = $.13/oz. (*** this one is tough to value)

Additional comments: *** I wrote an article on Cardero in January, 2003.
See http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel020803.html
The 250 mil oz. number is not from any reliable source. It`s my own personal number. It`s the number I use to determine relative value verses other silver companies. I`m not a geologist.

Their first drilling results came back less than expected, and the stock took over a 50% drop. Part of the problem was the type of drilling. The geologist said the water from the drill was washing away too much of the silver in the sample. And so, the stock has climbed back substantially with better drilling results since then. I still hold what I bought before Jan. 2003. I almost added on the pullback, but I didn`t. I regret not having bought on the dip.

Cardero is in Argentina. Their property was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. They are trying to prove up the property to see if they can make a huge open pit operation out of it. And they have lots of property in the area, and the area may have several large silver deposits that need proving up.

CFTN.PK
http://www.cliftonmining.com/
http://www.cliftonmining.com/wsreview.htm
50 mil shares fully diluted @ .29/share
$14.5 mil MC
100 mil oz. silver
+500,000 oz. gold x 70 = 35 mil oz. silver equiv.
$14.5 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.145/oz.
$14.5 mil MC / 135 mil oz. = $.107/oz.

Additional comments: I don`t own any. Not because of any negative bias, (I know little else about the company) I just bought others that were cheaper at the time. This one has not moved up as of late. I don`t know why it has not participated in the silver bull. But what do I know? Maybe no press?

SRLM.PK
http://www.sterlingmining.com/
4.9 mil shares x $3.95/share =
$19.35 mil MC
~160 mil oz. resource, Sunshine alone
~100 mil oz. other properties (rough guess)
$19.4 mil MC / 260 mil oz. = $.075/oz.
$19.4 mil MC / 400 mil oz. (an anonymous source says they have 400 mil oz., but will not commit to saying so on paper) = $.049/oz.

Additional comments: Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. This company`s share price went ballistic as a result. But the company is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. I own a substantial share of SRLM.PK There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM. See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:

1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, Cour, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today`s cheap prices. The CEO said he knows of a silver property that he feels he could buy for a million dollars that has perhaps 100 million more ounces of silver. That`s 1 cent per ounce! Maybe after this article comes out, and reaches the attention of the other owner, the other owner will realize the value of his property. But maybe not. It`s a free market and a free world, and all people do not have access to the best information. Hint: Efficient market theory is bunk, but the free market is still the best way to price things.

MNMM.OB:
7.5 mil shares x $2.55 =
$19.12 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources
$19.12 mil MC / 261 mil = $.073/oz.

Additional comments: Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and environmental concerns. So, the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price. Their property also has about 1/2 the value (at current prices) in copper, 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Do the math, people. 261 mil oz. silver x $5.25/oz. = $1.3 Billion. 2 Billion lbs copper x .85/lb. = $1.7 Billion. Amazing assets in the ground for such a small market cap. I own a substantial share of MNMM.OB

ECU.V
77.1M shares @ .085 CAN (x.73 US/CAN = .062)
$4.78 mil MC
Reserves and Resources: 41 mil oz. silver
Gold equivalents 712,000
712,000 x 70 (from the 70:1 silver/gold ratio) = 49.8 mil silver equiv... so you see, more than 1/2 is from gold.

Now, the tricky part about counting gold as silver... it does not work. Silver at 70:1 can move up to gold, up to 16:1, 10:1, 5:1, or even 1:1 if you really think a shortage and silver panic will hit, and you take into account there is less refined physical silver in the world than gold. That`s why we are silver investors. So, it`s misleading to use a 70:1 silver:gold ratio to count gold ounces, which are not equivalent, and do not have the same upside potential that silver has. But I`ll do it anyway, because other numbers would be arbitrary.

$4.78 mil MC / 41 + (49.8 silver equiv gold ounces) =
$4.78 mil MC / 90 mil oz. = $.053/oz.

Additional comments: This is among the cheapest. They were also featured in lemetropolecafe.com But note! Half those ounces are from gold, not silver. So if your intention is to add silver exposure to the portfolio, this is not your best pick. And the market cap is very tiny. Seems the best opportunities are available for the small investors. I own none of ECU.

Reports such as this usually cost an annual subscription such as $300 or more, and usually, the information you get is outdated by the time you get it in the mail. This information is believed to be accurate as of Friday, September 19, 2003. You have all weekend to do your own due diligence. Articles like this one, that present opportunities as good as these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful on Monday morning. Don`t place any market orders for any of these small stocks. You might end up buying at prices that are 30-100% higher than you intended. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership of gold-eagle.com. I`ve seen markets moved even by private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com, which reach much smaller numbers of people than gold-eagle.com. Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30% 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful.

The biggest days recently for CZN saw 5 million shares traded, but at .30 cents U.S./share. The biggest days for SRLM was 500,000 shares at about $2.50/share. Thus, the volume was just over a million dollars, and those days saw huge run ups in the price.

One more cautionary note. This is NOT an exhaustive list of all the silver company opportunities in the world. There are others. I`m lazy. I have not scoured the earth for everything available. I know this list is incomplete. And this brings me to why I`m sharing this information with all of you for free.

So, why am I writing up this information for free, and not trying to charge money for this information? As I said, I own some of the best of these stocks. If people buy them, and the stocks go up, I will profit. I have been itching to write up these companies for the past 8 months, but I have held off because it was hard enough for me to buy in to these. At the time, I did not want these companies getting any press. Part of the problem in buying in for me was the lack of confidence in my own family in the reality of the bull market in silver. Part of the other problem was the sometimes illiquid market and small market caps of these stocks.

The final and main reason why I`m writing this is that I expect that if people know of better silver property opportunities, they will contact me, as they did after my last article, which is how I learned of Mines Management, and Canadian Zinc. So if you know of silver properties that are cheaper, please contact me.


Jason Hommel
[e-mail]

www.goldismoney.com (site may be down temporarily due to re-designing)

Disclosure: I (nor GoldSeek.com) have not received any compensation from any company for writing up my report on "silver stocks -- compartive valuations," neither cash, nor shares, nor options, nor any other sort of compensation. Within the report, I declared my ownership of each company that I own. To repeat, I own shares of the following: MNMM.OB, SRLM.PK, CZN.TO, CDU.V. I am not short any companies, and I hold no short positions. GoldSeek.com does not hodl any positions in the above securities at the time of publication.


-- Posted Monday, Septehttp://www.goldseek.com/news/GoldIsMoney/1064240475.phpmber 22 2003

[ulfur]

Es ist vermutlich zu einfach, die Silberaktien allein nach den Kosten pro Unze ( =Marktkapitalisierung / Silberreserven ) zu beurteilen, gleichwohl ein interessanter Überblick über die Minen.

Die Kosten pro Unze noch mal zusammengefasst:

Hecla Mining………9,12 $/oz…….. HL
Wheaton River…....3,03 $/oz……..WHT
Coeur........................2,82 $/oz..........CDE
First Silver................1,26 $/oz.......…FSR.TO
Western Silver…….1,14…………..WTZ
Apex………………..1,22..................SIL
Excellon Resources.0,94..................EXN.V
Silvercrest Mines….0,85………….SVL.V
Minefinders……..…0,77…………..MFL.TO
Pan American.….…0,66………….PAAS
Silver Standard…..…0,38………….SSRI
Canadian Zinc……..0,18…………..CZN
Cardero……………..0,13…………..CDU.V
Clifton Mining……...0,107………….CFTN.PK
Sterling Mining…….0,075…………SRLM.PK
Mines Management..0,073………….MNMM.OB
ECU Silver………..0,053………….ECU.V

Macmin ist leider nicht dabei. In einem Report vom Nov.02(Hartleys) wird zum damaligen Kurs ein Wert
von 1 US $ (Market cap / oz Reserve ) genannt.

[MX 150]

ulfur,

-Macmin ist leider nicht dabei. In einem Report vom Nov.02(Hartleys) wird zum damaligen Kurs ein Wert
von 1 US $ (Market cap / oz Reserve ) genannt.-


Kannst Du den Bericht ins Board kopieren?Würd in gerne lesen.Der Link würde es auch tun.



Wär nett !


Mfg.: MX 150

[ulfur]

MX150,

siehe http://www.macmin.com.au/HPNovember02.pdf

Ich beziehe mich auf die Titelseite, linke Spalte mit den Überblickszahlen.

[MX 150]

Danke ulfur!


Mfg.: MX 150

[Tippgeber1]

@hpoth

danke hpoth, aufgrund der Einschätzung von Frank Veneroso
glaube ich kaum, dass die Notenbanken bei 410$ oder 420$
verkaufen würden. Im Gegenteil, gerade weil die
Notenbanken an den Markt ausgeliehenen Goldbestände höher
sind als ausgewiesen, werden sie auf der Käuferseite
sein!!!Insgesamt wird weltweit die Nachfrage nach Gold
m.E. steigen und das Angebot übertreffen.


"Die güldene Verschwörung

Sagen Notenbanken nicht die volle Wahrheit über die in
ihren Tresoren lagernden Goldbestände? Solche
Verschwörungstheorien gibt es immer wieder.

Frank Veneroso denkt in eine ähnliche Richtung. Doch der
Finanzguru, der unter anderem als globaler Marktstratege
für den Finanzriesen Allianz/ Dresdner arbeitet, gehört
nicht zu jenen, die eine solche Behauptung ohne Beweise
aufstellen würde.

In seinem bereits 1998 erschienen " Gold Book" hat
Veneroso ausführliches Zahlenmaterial zusammengetragen.
Der auch für mehrere Regierungen und supranationale
Institute arbeitende Experte nimmt jetzt kein Blatt mehr
vor den Mund.

Er wirft den offiziellen Stellen – vor allem aber den
Notenbanken – vor, die Finanzmarktakteure über die
tatsächliche Marktlage bei Gold zu täuschen.

Dies gelte gerade auch hinsichtlich der von den
Notenbanken an den Markt ausgeliehenen Goldbestände. Diese
seien wesentlich höher als in den offiziellen Statistiken
ausgewiesen.

Venerosos Schlussfolgerung: Einige Notenbanken könnten
bereits in Kürze zu Goldkäufern werden. Der Goldpreis
kennt für den Fachmann nur eine Richtung: Nach oben."


Grüssels
Tippgeber

[hpoth]

@ Tippgeber

mir ist die Aussage von Frank Veneroso bekannt, habe einen
Vortrag im März in Zürich von Ihm beigewohnt und kenne diese Thesen, wenn er recht hat dann stehen ja gute Goldzeiten bevor.Denke er hat recht, aber so leicht wird es sicher nicht werden, der Weg fürs Gold ist lange und mit Hindernissen geplanzt.Habe einen Artikel von Veneroso vom 21.märz 2003 der in Zürich verteilt wurde.
Kernaussage ist das der Goldpreis letztlich stark steigen wird, aber der Zeitpunkt ist ungewiss. da sich der Kurs der Goldaktien auf lange Sicht nach ihrem Nettovermögenswert richtet und dieser nettovermögenswert mit Hebelwirkung an den Goldpreis gekoppelt ist, stellen Goldaktien ein günstiges,kostenlose Hebelinstrument auf den Goldpreis dar.Die meisten bekannten Goldaktien mit hoher Marktkapitalisierungf sind entweder gehedged oder im Verhältnis zu ihrem Nettovermögen hoch bewertet,so dass ein künftiger Goldpreisanstieg schon zum Teil eingepreist ist.
Weniger bekannte Goldaktien sind günstiger bewertet und bieten eine höhere Call-Optionalität suf den Goldpreis.
Jedoch ist die Einschätzbakeit sehr schwer siehe Betrug Bri-ex
Gruß hpoth

[silvo]

Silber bei ABN-Amro bereits wieder auf 5,27 !!!!!!!!!


Let`S Go!!!

[ulfur]

Am Donnerstag werden evt. Maßnahmen für eine Randabwertung besprochen. Eine Randabwertung würde die Gewinnposition der südafrikanischen Minen verbessern.

Rand devaluation showdown this week

By: Tim Wood & Stewart Bailey
Posted: 2003/09/23 Tue 08:31 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

DENVER – Earlier this month, Mineweb reported that South Africa’s captains of industry were intensively lobbying government to weaken the strong rand which is threatening to derail the economy. Mineweb has now learned that the recent timid reduction in interest rates that left the rand even stronger has prompted a tripartite summit that will take place this Thursday.

It is understood that President Thabo Mbeki and his senior advisors will convene with Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni, business and labour representative to thrash out a way to devalue the rand in an orderly way before permanent structural damage is done. Critically, sources say the business delegation will be represented by a majority of black executives representing a broad spectrum of commercial interests.
…
The rand rebounded in late 2002 after going into freefall in December 2001 when it nearly touched R13.82 to the dollar. It is presently trading in a range between R7.20-30.
…
At the same time, next year’s presidential elections cannot be ignored. The ANC will need to be seen to deliver on its promises and employment is the highest priority.
…
The rand may, therefore, be devalued in the short-term via a combination of several interest rate cuts, “adjustments” to key national statistics, and an explicit weak rand policy statement by the Reserve Bank.

Aus:
http://www.mips1.net/mgdg3.nsf/Current/80256D9600425A814225…

[proFEiT]

sind Abbaukosten von 1.97 $/Unze Silber im grünen Bereich?

Angeblich sind diese 1.97 $/Unze unter den Kosten der TOP-20 Silberproduzenten(weltweit) einzuordnen

[Tippgeber1]

@hpoth

danke für Deine qualitätsmässig super Beitrag
Du hast recht...der Zeitpunkt ist ungewiss und
es ist wohl auch möglich, dass es wieder weit
runter geht...allerdings sehe ich in den letzten
Tagen starke Kursverluste an den Aktienmärkten.
Offensichtlich scheint der Martk überbewertet
zu sein und ich gehe davon aus, dass der Dow
durchaus noch auf 8500 Punkte fallen könnte und
der Dax die 2500 testet......

Gerade weil viele Fondmanager etc. positiv
gestimmt sind, denke ich wird es anders
kommen als die Masse glaubt.

Gesetzt den Fall ich liege richtig,
dürfte das Gold weiter steigen.
Hältst Du eine weiteres Steigen des
Goldpreises unabhängig vom Börsenverlauf?
für möglich? Korrelation?

Nun die meisten User/in werden natürlich einwenden
dass sich Gold nie von der Dollarentwicklung abkoppelt.
Und ihr habt recht! Frage deshalb: Ist hier ein
Abkopplung möglich? Wenn Gold wirklich langfristig
auf 600$ steigt , wo könnte dann der Dollar stehen?

Dollarstärke/Schwäche heißt doch auch, schaffen
es die Amis ihre Probleme in den Griff zu bekommen
(Schuldenabbau, Arbeitslosigkeit etc.)
und wieder wirtschaftlich an Fahrt zu gewinnen?

Ich finde es immer hilfreich, wenn man offen
solche Punkte diskutiert und versucht verschiedene
Sichtweisen darzustellen. Man sollte immer offen
für andere Meinungen sein.

Gedankenaustausch in diesen Boards heißt für mich
auch, nicht recht haben zu wollen, sondern voneinander,
miteinander und gemeinsam zu profitieren und ein
klein wenig mehr zu verstehen von unsere großen,
kleinen Welt


Liebe Grüsse an alle
Tippgeber

[Tippgeber1]

Liebe Goldfangemeinde

Gold schon bei 389,55$
Es steigt und steigt
kurze Rücksetzer werden
zum Nachkauf genutzt...


Grüssels
Euer Tippgeber

[Thoemsi]

Wenn ich jetzt schlafen gehe, verpasse ich womöglich die 390...

Bin aber trotzdem todmüde...und Gold schaffts auch ohne uns

[Thoemsi]

nicht zu vergessen, Silber kämpft gerade tapfer mit der 5,30er Marke

[Stephen]

Laut Kitco waren wir gerade über 390, gute Nacht

[Magor]

.
Lt. Kitco waren die 390 noch nicht geknackt, aber was für ein Gezerre in Sydney, es reißt den Preis förmkich hin und her:



was im Gold Index unter Comdirect etwas gebügelter aussieht

[Tippgeber1]

@Thoemsi:9
Ist leider etwas runtergegangen auf 387$

LG
Tippgeber

[Tippgeber1]

@Stephen

Schön wäre es gewesen...leider wieder
unter die 390$ gerutscht

huch Posting Nr. 7000 auf ein
neues der 8000 entgegen


Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Tippgeber1]

@Thömsi

Leider wieder auf 387$
gefallen..mal abwarten

Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Thoemsi]

Aktuell bei 391,60$, Silber bei 5,30. Das ging grade wie an der Schnur gezogen...
Dennoch hab ich das Gefühl, daß die Party bei den Minen bald vorbei sein könnte (also Korrektur und dann weiter)
Wenn die heut Abend bei dem Goldpreis nicht fest eröffnen, fliegt bei mit nochmal ein Batzen raus....
Was meint ihr?

Gruß

Thoemsi

[Basic]

Hallo Thoemsi,
was die Grossen über Wochen und Monate aufgebaut haben, bricht nicht wieder an einem Tag zusammen.

Schau mal den Tageschart von CDE und Cambior gestern, 1h bevor Gold und Silber stieg hat da noch jemand alle Stoploss eingesammelt. Das macht man nur, wenn noch einiges zu holen ist. Nicht zu vergessen die Shorties die bestimmt noch nicht alle wieder drinn sind.

Gruß Basic

[ulfur]

Die großen Longpositionen und die angeblich schwache Goldnachfrage könnten den Goldanstieg gefährden. Andererseits ist der steigende Goldpreis doch nur ein Spiegelbild des sinkenden US-Dollars. Und warum sollten die Longpositionen vor Erreichen der 400 $ Grenze liquidieren?

ODJ FOCUS: Fund Interest In Gold Wholly Consistent With High Prices

By Andrea Hotter
London, Sept. 24 (OsterDowJones) - The importance of the funds in driving the spot gold prices to above $380 a troy ounce is viewed by industry participants as wholly consistent with the high level of the net speculative position on Comex, market players said Wednesday.

The Commitments Of Traders Report data for the week ended Sept. 16 showed that speculators cut their long positions by around one million ounces to 14.8 million ounces, but players said that the funds have added to their positions since then. Some estimates suggest speculative positions are probably between 17 and 18 million ounces, an all time high.

"Despite the fall in the speculative positions, traders remain very long and have probably rebuilt their positions back to the all time highs," said John Reade of UBS. "There is little threat that we will see substantial long liquidation while the dollar remains weak. If the U.S. dollar is set to begin weakening again, holders of long gold positions are likely to be in for a profitable ride in the near term," he added.

According to analyst Alan Williamson of HSBC, what seems to have changed is the long position the funds have been willing to hold, for a given exchange rate. This in turn reflects a number of factors, he said, including expectations of future currency movements, speculation over the renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement and continued moves by producers to unwind hedge positions.

Others said that the recent gold price rally reflects speculation that the launch of exchange traded funds such as Australia`s Gold Bullion Limited will capture institutional interest in the market from usually disinterested players, such as the pension funds.

"The key question remains how long the funds will be willing to run with - or even add to - current huge net long positions while physical demand remains soft," Williamson added.

Market players said that the continued fund interest in gold also reflects developments in other markets. "The rally in equity prices has led to concerns that much of the apparent economic recovery has already been priced in, while the volatility in the fixed-income markets has led to increased worries that the bond market is not quite the safe-haven many had assumed it to be," Williamson said.

In the near term, the funds are expected to continue to drive gold prices up with the February high of $388/oz the immediate target prior to an assault on the February 1996 high of $400/oz level, dealers said. Yet with lackluster physical demand at the upper levels, dealers said the gains may not be sustainable for a long period of time.


Andrea Hotter, OsterDowJones, [phone]

Zur Dollarentwicklung heißt es heute in der Ftd:

Aus der FTD vom 25.9.2003
Euro-Stärke bedroht Aufschwung
Von Mark Schieritz und Sebastian Dullien, Berlin
....

Nach Einschätzung von Dirk Schumacher, Volkswirt bei der Investmentbank Goldman Sachs, dürfte der Aufwärtstrend des Euro vorerst anhalten. Für den Abbau des US-Leistungsbilanzdefizits, das in diesem Jahr fünf Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts erreichen könnte, sei ein schwächerer Dollar nötig. Goldman Sachs rechnet für das Frühjahr mit einem Euro-Kurs von 1,24 $, rund zehn Cent höher als heute. Ähnlich argumentierte Adolf Rosenstock vom Investmenthaus Nomura, der von einem Anstieg des Euro auf mindestens 1,20 $ ausgeht.

http://www.ftd.de/pw/eu/1064412773460.html?nv=hpm

[Thoemsi]

@ Basic

Wenn Du recht hast (was ich hoffe), dann werden unsere Lieblinge ja heute Nachmittag fest eröffnen...
Ich will bloß nicht diese ekelhaften Rücksetzer mit dem ganzen Depot mitmachen....vor 2 Wochen hab ich knapp 15% schon mal gegeben.(man darf nicht zu gierig sein...

Gruß

Thoemsi

p.s. Nach der Korrektur kannst Du dann das 1,5 fache an Stücken zurückkaufen

[keepitshort]

Thoemsi
#7006

Hallo Thoemsi
ich gehe davon aus dass der S&P500 in den nächsten Wochen
weiter an Wert verliert.
siehe bei www.bigcharts.com Kürzel: SPX und MACD und DMI

der US-dollar hat im Moment auch die Triggermarke ausgelöst
siehe www.bigcharts.com Kürzel: C_eur SMA9 und SMA18
und Bollinger-Band
siehe auch www.stockcharts.com Kürzel: USD

nur die 10-year-T-Bond-Yield muss bei 4,2% halten
und wieder nach oben abdrehen.
siehe www.stockcharts.com Kürzel: $TNX und $USB
bei $TNX betrachte MA90 und MA38

ende Mai2002 als drooy so böse abstürzte da
hat der MA38 den MA90 beim $TNX geschnitten.

Bitte versuche mal den $TNX zu beachten.

Ich jedenfalls verkaufe im Moment nicht sondern nur
wenn der $TNX unter seine MA38 fällt.

Hoffe weiter auf gute Zusammenarbeit.

[Thoemsi]

Hallo keepit

so charttechnisch wie Du mache ich das nicht. Ich treffe solche Entscheidungen meist aus dem Bauch heraus, nach Gefühl. Ende Mai 02 saß ich (wie wohl die meisten hier) auf satten Buchgewinnen, aber ich habe nichts realisiert weil ich einfach zu gierig war. Nun ist es einfach so: Gier frisst Hirn.
Ich bin jetzt lieber wachsam und zittere mich von Tag zu Tag auf neue Höchststände und kann dann (am besten vor der Korrektur) die Hälfte des Depots oder mehr rauswerfen.
Was mich momentan auch noch positiv stimmt ist die Tatsache, daß die meisten eher negativ gestimmt sind (siehe den Sentiment Thread von Wavetrader)
Von dem her kann es gut sein, daß die 400 sehr schnell genommen werden. Doch sobald ich eben merke, daß die Minen nicht mehr mitlaufen, wird nach und nach abgebaut, denn eine Korrektur kommt garantiert.

Gruß

Thoemsi

[niemandweiss]

25/09/2003 Basic Element nimmt Gold ins Visier
Der Besitzer von RusAl, Oleg Deripaska, will mit seiner Holding Basic Element in den Goldabbau einsteigen. Deripaska ist bereit, sich bei einer offenen Ausschreibung um die größte Goldlagerstätte Eurasiens, „Suchoj Log“, zu beteiligen.

Die Lagerstätte verfügt über Reserven von 1.100 Tonnen Gold. Beim gegenwärtigen Marktpreis von Gold kann man davon ausgehen, daß der Wert von „Suchoj Log“ ca. 13 Mrd. USD beträgt.

Seit Mitte der 90er Jahre betrieb die australische Firma Star Technology die Lagerstätte, ging aber 1998 Pleite. Seitdem suchen die föderalen sowie lokalen Behörden nach einem zuverlässigen Investor, der in der Lage sein soll, das Ausbeuten der Lagerstätte zu sichern.

Ursprünglich wollte die Regierung die Goldlagerstätte im Rahmen einer geschlossenen Ausschreibung veräußern. Norilsk Nickel, das seit kurzem Gold-Assets erwirbt, soll daran großes Interesse haben. Jedoch ändern Deripaskas Äußerungen die bisherige Situation und der Staat könnte sich jetzt für eine offene Ausschreibung entscheiden. Außerdem sind die jüngsten Ausschreibungen in der Goldbranche für den Staat sehr erfolgreich gewesen: Die Matrosow-Goldmine wurde für 34 Mio. USD mit einer 13fachen Überschreitung des Startpreises versteigert, Lenzoloto für 152 Mio. USD, d.h. fünf Mal so hoch wie der Startpreis. Beide Goldlagerstätten wurde von Norilsk Nickel ersteigert, aber jetzt entsteht ein ernster Mitbewerber.

Basic Element verwaltet die Nichtkerngeschäfte des Aluminium-Magnats, nämlich Fahrzeugbau, Hüttenwerke, Versicherungen, Versorger usw. Jetzt kommt auch Gold als eine neue „trendy“ Branche Rußlands in Frage.



http://www.kreml.net/news/news/full/index.khtml?blockID=2979

[ulfur]

# 6993 Profeit

Mir sind die Abbaukosten bei Silberminen nicht weiter bekannt. Aber 1,92 $/oz scheint mir sehr günstig zu sein. Auch wenn zu den Abbaukosten noch Zinsen, Abschreibungen, Verwaltungskosten etc hinzukommen, sollte die Spanne zum Verkaufserlös von über 5 $ ausreichen, um Gewinn zu machen.

Als Vergleich habe ich mal in ein paar Berichte geguckt. Pan American Silver hat etwa Cash Costs von 4,40 $/oz und Total Production Costs von 4,80 $/oz. ( Die kostenniedrigste Mine von PAAS hat Cash Costs von unter 3 $/oz). First Silver nennt Cash Costs von 3,91 $/oz und Total Costs von 4,32 $oz.

Beim Jahresbericht von Coeur ist mir allerdings klar geworden, dass eine solche Kennzahl wie Abbaukosten nur beschränkte Aussagekraft für eine Aktie hat. Coeur nennt Cashkosten von 2,89 $/oz, wobei sie sogar Minen haben, die mit sehr niedrigen Cash costs von 0,38 $/oz operieren. Die Full Costs betragen etwa 3,80 $/oz. Leider kann man auch aus den Full Costs nicht auf die Profitabilität der Minen schließen. Nimmt man einfacherweise aus der Erlösrechnung die Metallerlöse , so ergibt sich ein Erlös von 5,81 $/oz ( inklu. zusätzlicher Erlöse durch Gold und Kupfer ). Die Gesamtkosten betrugen hingegen etwa 11,29 $/oz ( wobei Coeur alleine für Zinsen schon ca. 1,50 $/oz in 2002 aufgewendet hat. ( In den Vorjahren waren die Kosten allerdings bedeutend geringer, 2001 betrug der Verlust nur 0,28 $/oz ).

[proFEiT]

Danke Ulfur

[Thoemsi]

Ich schone meine Nerven und habe jetzt gut zwei Drittel rausgeworfen...Mal schauen obs richtig war.

[ulfur]

Reuters
Gold eases as Swiss detail gold sales plans
Friday September 26, 4:37 am ET


* GOLD (XAU=) - Falls almost $2.00 as Swiss National Bank says
it will sell another 284 tonnes of gold from excess reserves by the end of September 2004 and
an additional 130 tonnes in the year after that.
* SNB said it had sold 886 tonnes of gold since May 2000 under a 1999 accord that limits
disposals by major European central banks to a combined 2,000 tonnes by September 2004.
*Spot gold quoted at $382.50/383.25 a troy ounce at 0833 GMT, from $384.20/384.90 at Thursday`s
close in New York.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030926/markets_precious_europe_2.htm…

[niemandweiss]

das ganze noch mal auf "deutsch"

10:47 - SNB will bis September 2004 weitere 284 Tonnen Gold verkaufen
Zürich (AWP) - Die Schweizerische Nationalbank wird bis im September 2004 weitere 284 Tonnen Gold verkaufen. Dies geschieht im Rahmen des seit Mai 2000 laufenden Programms zum Verkauf von insgesamt 1`300 Tonnen Gold. Bisher seien 886 Tonnen Gold auf den Markt gebracht, heisst es in einer Mitteilung vom Freitag.

Die Goldverkäufe im Rahmen des von 15 europäischen Zentralbanken abgeschlossenen Goldabkommens werden sich damit bis 2004 auf Total 1`170 Tonnen belaufen. Mit dem Abkommen seien die Goldverkäufe der beteiligten Zentralbanken auf 2`000 Tonnen für den Zeitraum von fünf Jahren beschränkt worden. Die Nationalbank will die verbleibenden 130 Tonnen im Jahr 2005 nach Ablauf des Goldabkommens auf den Markt bringen.

Wie bisher sollen regelmässige Transaktionen mit "erstklassigen Instituten" das gelbe Metall dem Markt zuführen, heisst es weiter.

MK/as/cf

[sloewe]

[niemandweiss]

hab ich dir damit einen Gefallen getan ?

[optim3]

@niemandweiss

frunzt stock bei dir???

[optim3]

@niemandweiss

schweizer sind also ab 2005 goldfrei!

was haben die dann noch außer fremden und eigene
blüten?

das wars dann wohl mit "fast sichrem hafen" sfr!

[TFischer]

Schweizer sind 2005 nicht goldfrei, sie haben dann etwa die Hälfte ihres Goldbestandes verkauft. Ist aber ziemlich genau um die Hälfte zuviel. Die Idioten haben es nämlich ausgerechnet in den fallenden Dollar angelegt!

Gruss

TFischer

[Culogrande1]

So mal das Ego der laotischen Bergziege stärken....der Sräd muss leben .....klick,kclick,klick,....wo ist der Mentor.

Er ist ein furchtsamer Aussitzer.....weil er Angst hat die letzten 10% zu verpassen...Profis wie ich geben im Aufschwung und hauen im Abschwung alles raus.

Culo....ex DL genannt Hänns Rüüüüüüdi der Hiatabua :
laugh:

[ulfur]

Rohstoffwerte kommen wieder in Mode. Hat jemand Tips für unterbewertete und dennoch ergebnisstarke Aktien?

Commodities come in from the cold

Heather Connon
Sunday September 28, 2003
The Observer

Suddenly, commodities are where it`s at. Prices for platinum, nickel and copper are rising sharply; futures contracts for everything from cotton to palm oil are in great demand. And with the prices of the few existing commodities funds having risen by 40 per cent or more over the past year, fund managers Martin Currie and First State plan to launch funds of their own in the next few months.
The return to favour is long overdue. For most of the last two decades, investors have shunned commodities and natural resources, initially because many got their fingers burnt after the last boom in the late Seventies, then because the cult of the equity - and latterly technology-mania - made it unfashionable to invest in anything other than shares.

But now that investors have discovered even large companies such as Marconi or Enron can all but disappear, investing in something physical looks attractive.

Professional investors are investing in commodities either indirectly, through mining and resources companies like Anglo American or Antofagasta, or directly, through buying futures contracts. Many believe that will continue. Hugh Hendry of Odey Asset Management, which launched a commodities hedge fund last year, thinks we are at the start of a boom that could last a decade. `There have only been five serious commodity bull markets in the last 300 years. They tend to happen every five years or so.`

He attributes the resurgence to the global economy: authorities around the world are pumping out money in a bid to stave off the economic doldrums and that liquidity is increasing demand for basic commodities. Increasing supply can take years, so higher demand means higher prices.

Graham French, who runs the Global Basics fund for M&G, which has around a third of its assets in resources, points to the phenomenal demand from China, which has been consuming a fifth or more of world production of metals like zinc and iron ore.

The Chinese economy has been growing by 8 per cent a year, yet much of its 1.3 billion population have yet to own the fridges, cars and dishwashers the western world takes for granted. If the growth can be properly managed - and there is concern about the free availability of bank finance and intense competition cutting the prices of some white goods to the bone - it should keep demand for these metals rising for years.

While the Chinese economy is motoring, other parts of the world seem to be at least starting to recover, which should be good news for demand elsewhere.

Ian Henderson, who runs JPMorgan Fleming`s Natural Resources fund, thinks there should be plenty of growth to come. `Commodity prices are miles from their former peaks,` he said. `If they were to get halfway back to 1993, prices would have to rise around 50 per cent from where they are today. To get to the 1987 peaks, they would need to be double where they are today.`

He says that, when resource prices have rallied before, producers have reacted by piling on capacity. So far that has not hap pened, partly because consolidation across every industry has introduced greater financial discipline. That means supply is tight: gold production is falling and demand is being met by sales from government reserves; iron supply is tight, and there are only two serious producers of nickel.

The interest from professional investors stems partly from the realisation that a diversified portfolio decreases risk, and the commodity cycle tends to be different from the equity market.

Private investors should take their lead and put a bit of their portfolios into such products. That could be through M&G`s fund, which combines resources with other basic industries such as food and drink manufacturers, or through one of the more specialist funds on offer from JPMorgan Fleming or Merrill Lynch. All have been excellent performers over the last five years.

[superman6]

vielleicht waren das schon wieder die
Tiefstände?

[Goldhamster999]

Focus: China`s gold rush
( 2003-09-25 11:10) (China Daily HK Edition)



Prominent gold experts and officials are urrging the government to lift the ban on individual trading in the precious metal as soon as possible, as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.


A woman shows a bar of gold in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. Enthusiasm for individual investment in gold has always been high in China. [newsphoto.com.cn]

The introduction of individual traders, they say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

It is "safe and feasible" for China to spend part of its foreign exchange reserves on gold imports, as well as place such purchases on the domestic market and open the market to individual players at the earliest possible opportunity, said Xi Jianhua, Bank of China`s gold business expert.

About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold.

Outstanding individual bank savings in China hit 10.61 trillion yuan (US$1.28 trillion) at the end of July. After trying in vain for years to encourage a high growth rate in private spending, China has had to rely on proactive fiscal policies, marked by heavy government investment since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, to maintain fast gross domestic product growth.

Based on the survey results, Xi estimated that a possible injection of as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market.

The money would create demand for about 3,000 tons of gold, he said. It would then only be natural for the country to expand imports as China currently has just 600 tons of gold reserves at its disposal, far from enough to cope with the potential gold rush.

In the initial stages, individual investors would create a market demand for 300 to 500 tons, according to analysts, and further growth would be gradual.

Spending on such a scale for gold imports would not have a significant impact on China`s foreign exchange reserves, they said. Even if the anticipated 300 billion yuan worth of private investment was made right away, the country`s US$356.5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves at the end of July could cater for the demand with ease.

Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan".

Xi`s suggestions were echoed by Xu Shouxin, vice-director general of the China Gold Association.

Xu said the association has long proposed promoting individual ownership of gold, adding that the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date.

He also stressed the need to spend part of the country`s foreign exchange reserves on gold imports once the domestic market is opened to individual investors.

The time is now perfect for the government to make the move, say analysts, citing potential room for further hikes in gold prices, both in the domestic and international markets.

Rising prices

Gold prices in China have risen more than 15 per cent since the Shanghai Gold Exchange started operating last October, initiating free trade in gold for the first time in the history of the People`s Republic of China. But its members are limited to 108 institutions, including producers, processors and traders of gold and gold products, plus commercial banks.


Staff at the Shanghai Gold Exchange follow closely the international gold prices. [newsphoto.com.cn]

The price of Au99.95, the type of gold used in the manufacturing of ornamental items, which was 83.5 yuan (US$10.10) a gram last October, climbed to a record high on September 22, closing at 102.21 yuan (US$12.31). Meanwhile, the price of Au99.99, gold reserved for investment-oriented speculation, which was 84 yuan (US$10.16) a gram last October, closed at 102.45 yuan (US$12.34) on September 22.

Analysts note that trade at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, dominated by Au99.95 in the beginning, is now marked by heavy transactions in Au99.99.

Meanwhile, prices of gold jewellery in Shanghai and other major Chinese cities also increased by 2 to 3 yuan (24-36 US cents) per gram this month.

Some SGE members have been increasing their stocks in anticipation of heightened demand once the market is open to individual investors, said an industry insider who declined to be identified. "These investors have been very active, taking every possible chance to buy in."

A gold analyst with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said the domestic gold market is following the appreciation trend of gold against the US dollar, predicting that prices will further rise following an influx of new capital at the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

International gold prices recently hit a six-year high of US$390 per ounce, exceeding the previous record of US$388 set in February when the US invasion of Iraq was imminent. Prices dipped to US$318.75 an ounce on April 7 in anticipation of a quick end to the war but started to bounce back as it dragged on, and the rising trend has gained strength since the beginning of this month.

Local analysts say the complicated situation in the Middle East, the world`s oil barrel, and a sluggish international economy are the two main forces driving the increase in gold prices.

The slow restoration of peace and order in Iraq, escalating tensions between Israel and Palestine and the weaker-than-expected economic recovery in the United States, Europe and Japan have blunted consumer confidence and diverted a large amount of capital into the gold market, said Li Xisheng, an analyst with Qilu Securities.

Sluggish stock markets worldwide have also driven investors to the gold trade, Li said.

Xi noted that Japanese investors have been buying in substantial amounts of gold since the beginning of this month, while the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar has produced more opportunities for European investors in the gold market.

Other analysts even predict that international gold prices may surpass US$400 an ounce before the end of the year.

Short supply

As the world`s third largest gold consumer and fourth largest gold producer, China is suffering from a long-term shortage of gold, said Li Xisheng.

The country`s annual consumption is about 200 tons, while its production equals roughly 180 tons a year.


The Shanghai Gold Exchange, initiating free trade in gold last year for the first time since 1949, so far serves only institutional traders, rather than individuals. [newsphoto.com.cn]

According to the China Gold Association, national gold output hit 88.12 tons in the first half of the year, an annualized increase of 13.21 per cent. The industry created a profit of 974 million yuan (US$117.35 million), up almost 60 per cent from the same period last year due to rising gold prices and soaring demand.

However, analysts say, it is difficult for China to maintain major long-term growth in gold production because of limited natural resources and production capability.

In China, some 800 producers, each equipped to handle a daily capacity of more than 50 tons of ore, employ a workforce of 400,000. Their combined annual gold production capacity is 150 tons.

However, Li said, 80 per cent of these producers have a daily ore processing capacity of less than 200 tons each.

Small-scale production, a lack of the latest technology and management techniques, and low production efficiency keep most Chinese gold producers from being competitive enough, as do high production costs, he said.

Meanwhile, strong growth is expected in domestic gold demand over the long term, Li said, as individual incomes continue to increase.

-- First, per capita annual gold consumption in China is only 0.2 grams, far below that in Western and other Asian countries. The figure for India is one gram, while the United Arab Emirates averages the highest at 30 grams.

China is the largest potential jewellery market in the world, said Chu Xiangyin, an official with the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade. Consumption of ornamental objects topped 80 billion yuan (US$9.65 billion) in 2002 and has been growing by 15 per cent annually.

The market value should grow 10 times in 10 years, Chu said.

China is also on course to become a major manufacturer of gold jewellery in 2010 as a result of increased private spending power and lowered import tariffs, said Kang Xingzhou, vice-chairman of the China Gold Association.

Kang predicted that China`s annual gold jewellery sales volume would reach 189 billion yuan (US$22.78 billion) by 2010, accounting for more than 10 per cent of the world`s total.

-- Second, the demand for gold for industrial use will also increase rapidly as China becomes the world`s manufacturing centre.

Currently, 90 per cent of the gold consumed in China is used to make jewellery.

-- Third, the potential for individual investment in gold as an option to currencies to maintain private wealth is almost unlimited.

Uncertainties about worldwide political stability and economic growth have strengthened this function of gold, Li said.

For instance, global investment in gold rose by 8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2001 following the September 11 terrorist attacks, while growth for the previous three quarters was only 4 per cent.

Closer to home, gold prices in China surged amid plunging stock markets during the SARS outbreak earlier this year.

Such uncertainties may also bring about adjustments to China`s foreign exchange reserves.

When China`s foreign exchange reserves grow to US$400 billion and the ratio of gold in the reserves is brought to 5 per cent, according to Merrill Lynch, a new demand for 122 tons of gold will result. Gold comprised just 2.6 per cent of the US$286 billion worth of reserves at the end of last year.

For thousands of years, the Chinese have traditionally saved gold and worn gold ornaments, analysts reason. If the government does decide to allow individual investors into the sector, the landscape of the entire gold industry worldwide could change completely.

China`s gold rush

The introduction of individual traders in the gold market will, according to gold experts and officials:

-- invigorate flagging consumption;

-- slash the foreign trade surplus;

-- trim conspicuous foreign exchange reserves;

-- ease international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold.

A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.

Gold prices in China have risen more than 15 per cent since the Shanghai Gold Exchange started operating last October.

Prices of gold jewellery in Shanghai and other major Chinese cities increased by 2 to 3 yuan (24-36 US cents) per gram this month.

http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_2673…

[Tippgeber1]

@colgate zahncreme oder doctore
or whatever...eh anyway

Deine Äußerungen wirken nicht sehr professinonell,
eher wie die eines kleinen Kindes, dass dabei ist
den großen zuzuschauen.....

Das Lachen mußt du wohl noch üben

Ansonsten hat Dein Kauderwelch wohl niemand
richtig verstanden....mit vollem Mund spricht
man aber auch nicht doctore scilachi...
und die Zahncreme schon mal gar nicht

[morbidus]

@tippgeber

Das du Dottore nicht verstehst, liegt daran das du nichts von der Materie verstehst und nicht an seiner Ausdrucksweise, seufz.

[Culogrande1]

@morbidus:das ist Eulen nach Athen tragen.......der Tippi fiel schon des öfteren durch seine Postings auf...er outete sich nachgerade nicht als Experte des Güldenens.

Bussi del Culo al Culo

[bluemoons]

A COT DEATH?

Alf Field

COT is an anacronym for Commitment Of Traders in the Futures markets. The Exchange analyses the various market participants into 3 categories, Large Commercials/Hedgers, Large Speculators and Small Speculators. Historically the Commercials/Hedgers have been on the correct side of the market movements while the Speculators have been wrong, especially when their open positions have reached extreme levels.

In the gold market, the Commercials/Hedgers have tended to be short while the Speculators have been long. When their respective total positions have reached extremely high levels, the market has often been at a peak. This has given rise to the popularity of the COT indicator. This indicator, it is alleged, has never been wrong. I have not verified this assertion but it may well have been true for the past 20 to 25 years, the period for which data is available.

Bull markets climb a "wall of worry" and the latest worry is that the COT figures have "gone off the page" with the Commercials/Hedgers net short position reaching an all time record high and the Speculators long positions similarly at record levels. Naturally this has raised concerns that the gold market may be on the verge of a big decline if this indicator maintains its record of highlighting market peaks.

The question is whether this will happen or whether we will witness the demise of this indicator, in other words a COT death?

There are sound reasons for believing that things are about to change. The data available over the past 20 years and the signals developed from the resulting market action all occurred during a period when the primary trend of the gold market was DOWN. In other words, the shorts were invested in harmony with the primary bear trend and the longs were invested against the primary trend.

If the gold market is now subject to a primary BULL up trend then all the guidelines and signals developed during the BEAR market may be of no significance whatsoever. There are many indications that gold is in a new bull market - from fundamentals (paper currencies being printed into oblivion), technicals (20 year down trend broken and a new up trend firmly established) and, on my reading, the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) confirming a new bull market.

The open position in the Comex gold futures at last count exceeded 296,000 contracts. With a contract size of 100 ounces, this means that the respective total long and short positions amounted to 29.6m ounces. With 99.9% of trades on Comex being settled in cash, these huge positions are effectively at a standoff. The longs must eventually sell to close their positions while the bears must eventually buy in what they have already sold.

Most trading on Comex is done on small margins so a $10 down move in the gold price could result in the longs being called upon to produce extra cash of $296m or have their positions forcibly sold at market. Similarly a $10 rise in the gold price would result in the shorts receiving a $296m margin call or be faced with a forced buy-in of their positions. Movements in the physical market produce the price changes that create these pressures for the participants on the wrong side of the market.

During the 20-year gold bear market the primary trend of the physical gold market pushed prices down which caused the long positions to come under increasing pressure. The shorts made a bundle. IF we are in a new gold BULL market, then the physical market will now provide upward impetus to the gold price that will in due course squeeze the short positions.

In a BULL market the shorts, be they large commercials/hedgers or the Queen of England, will eventually be blown away by the huge tidal force of the primary underlying bull trend. In a BULL market the bears get killed and the longs make a killing. The reverse happens in a bear market.

Recently I watched the incoming tide flow up the river Thames in London, England. It was an awesome sight. The strength of this huge surge of water overpowered the out-flowing river and sent a massive body of water upstream threatening to top the riverbank. I watched a small tree being driven upstream as if it were a matchbox.

It occurred to me that someone rowing down the Thames when the tide and the river were both flowing out would cover a mile in a few minutes. The same rower attempting to row against the tide might row for an hour and not even get close to covering a mile. In fact the rower would eventually tire and be swept up the river by the force of the incoming tide.

Anyone drawing conclusions about how far they could row down the Thames would inevitably come to false conclusions if their measurements were only made while the tide was ebbing. Their calculations would be rendered worthless when the tide changed and started to flow upriver in earnest. This is an apt analogy for the COT indicator where all the measurements and signals that were formulated during the bear market when the tide was flowing out are likely to be proved to be worthless when the bull market tide flows in, as it appears to be doing now.

In my recent article on the EWP and gold I suggested that a PM gold fixing above $382 would enhance the probability of a move to about $424 without a serious correction. This past week the PM gold fixing rose to a high of $390.70 on Thursday 25 September before correcting to $382.70 the next day. We thus have a bullish confirmation for the gold market.

When I referred to a "serious correction", I meant a correction of $25-$30, the sort of correction that I anticipate will occur once gold has reached the approximate $424 level. The current correction should not be more than $18 (basis the London PM fixings) from the $390.70 peak giving a probable low of about $373 before embarking on a rise to approximately $424. This is still my expectation. The forecast of a rise to $500 after the $25-30 correction from $424 is still valid. From $500 a more serious correction of about 16% is likely.

There is one remaining EWP potential negative short-term development. It is still possible that the correction that started in February 2003 at $382 is not yet over. There remains the possibility of an EWP "flat" correction, i.e. where the B wave rally slightly exceeds the previous peak before declining in a C wave to near the low of the A wave.

To put some numbers on this, the A wave would be the drop from $382 to $320 from February to April 2003. The B wave would be the rally from $320 to last Thursday`s $390, to be followed by a C wave decline to somewhere approaching $320. Thereafter the bull market would resume in earnest. The first indication that this "flat" correction to $320 might be developing would be the current correction exceeding $25, i.e. a PM fixing below $365.

An ongoing rally producing a PM fixing above $390.70, combined with new highs in the Comex futures above $395 should be sufficient to weaken the odds, if not totally eliminate, the possibility of the "flat" correction occurring.

Finally, to complete the EWP analysis, the level at which we would have to abandon the bullish case has now risen from $309 to about $320. A PM fixing below $320 would increase the odds of a further bear market down move of substantial proportions occurring.

Returning to the consideration of the COT position, it is useful to remember that the bears putting out the short positions are as human as we are and subject to the same frailties. It is thus likely that after 20 years of being right and reaping a fortune out of being short the gold bear market, that these people have possibly become over-confident and maybe a touch arrogant. It is unlikely that they will see the problems developing for their short positions that are now arraigned against the primary trend of the market until it is too late.

The bears will do what they have done in the past, put out even more shorts. This is the Nick Leeson syndrome, the technique that brought Baring Brothers bank to its knees a few years ago. Fighting the primary trend of a market is the sure fire road to bankruptcy - and a COT death.



Alf Field

29 September 2003

Comments may be sent to the author at: [e-mail]

Email this Article to a Friend
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/field092903.html

[ulfur]

Die Herzogkommission schlägt vor, die Goldreserven der Bundesbank zu verfrühstücken:

CDU und CSU streiten über Sozialpolitik
...
Als weitere Geldquelle für die Pflegekassen regt die Kommission den Verkauf der Bundesbank-Goldreserven an. 28 Mrd. Euro könnten so mobilisiert werden, heißt es im Entwurf. Mit ihren Vorschlägen will die Kommission die Sozialversicherungsbeiträge "dauerhaft auf zunächst 40 Prozent" begrenzen. Bis 2030 drohe sonst ein Anstieg auf 54 Prozent.
http://www.ftd.de/pw/de/1064846913956.html?nv=hpm

[voracon]

also langfristig wäre das äusserst positiv für den goldpreis ...

wenn auch die letzten reserven verkooft sind

sorgen macht mir dann nur noch die reichsfluchtsteuer

soweit kommts dann nämlich auch noch


mauer und minengürtel vor der schweizer grenze


hausdurchsuchung mit gold-detektor

[Kanzler-neu]

Der Goldpreis hat noch Spielraum bis 420 Dollar
Technik-Tipp von Martin Siegert aus der WELT vom 29.9.03

Stuttgart - Und immer wieder aufs Neue erstrahlt das gelbe Edelmetall. In der vergangenen Woche notierte der Goldpreis gemessen in US-Dollar pro Feinunze zwar noch knapp unter der psychologisch wichtigen Marke von 400 Dollar, doch mit der Preisfeststellung im Bereich der 394 Marke erzielte das begehrte Metall die höchste Preisnotiz der vergangenen sieben Jahre.

Mit einem Kursplus von zwölf Prozent seit Jahresbeginn hat der Goldpreis bis dato die Hälfte der Kursperformance des vergangenen Jahres erzielen können und dies in einem Umfeld steigender Aktienkurse an den Weltbörsen. Die Kursgraphik auf Monatsbasis verdeutlicht die Talfahrt des Goldpreises. Nach der Ausbildung einer Kursspitze Anfang 1980 im Bereich der 850 US-Dollarmarke pro Feinunze folgte eine 20-jährige Abwärtsphase, die mit einer Ausbildung eines charttechnischen doppelten Bodens in den Jahren 1999 und 2001 bei 252 und 254 Dollar beendet wurde. Der nachfolgende Bruch der Abwärtstrendlinie mit Überschreiten der 304er Marke im April des vergangenen Jahres und der danach vollzogene "Pullback" bestätigten aus Sicht der klassischen Chartanalyse die Trendwende.

Die Preisentwicklung der vergangenen Monate verlief in einem intakten Trendkanal, dessen untere Begrenzung derzeit im Bereich der 340 Dollarmarke verläuft. Auf der Preisoberseite wurde mit Erreichen des Vorwochenhochs eine wichtige Preishürde getestet. Hierbei handelt es sich um die 23,6-prozentige Korrekturmarke der gesamten Abwärtsbewegung der vergangenen Jahre. Ein erneutes Überschreiten dieser Zone beziehungsweise ein eventueller Monatsschlusskurs über der 401-Dollar-Marke lassen für die kommenden Monate den Test der Zone zwischen 413 und 420 Dollar erwarten. Auf diesem Preisniveau häufen sich die charttechnischen Widerstände des vergangenen Jahrzehnts.

Fazit: Der Goldpreis befindet sich in einer soliden Aufwärtsbewegung wobei die Kurszielphantasie in den nächsten Monaten auf das Erreichen der Zone um die 413 und 420 Dollar begrenzt sein sollte. Unterstützung in den kommenden Tagen und Wochen bildet der Bereich zwischen den Marken von 372 und 368 Dollar.

Martin Siegert ist Direktor für Markttechnische Analyse bei der Landesbank Baden-Württemberg

[Tippgeber1]

@morbius

na übersetze mal seine Worte du laotische
Bergzieglein..übe mal weiter deinen Kadavergehorsam
morbius grunzus

...und frag dich mal, warum man dottore lupo gesperrt
hat...na klickts

Richtige Profis müssen das nicht betonen, nur solche die
keine sind. Und zu betonen, dass er alles richtig machen
wird, wirkt eher peinlich Thinking about that, bevor du
mir versuchst Ratschläge zu geben. Dank vorab. Gibt´s ja
nen´ guten Diener ab

"7020 von Culogrande1 28.09.03 11:00:35 Beitrag Nr.:
10.866.081 10866081
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort
schreiben
So mal das Ego der laotischen Bergziege stärken....der
Sräd muss leben .....klick,kclick,klick,....wo ist der
Mentor.

Er ist ein furchtsamer Aussitzer.....weil er Angst hat die
letzten 10% zu verpassen...Profis wie ich geben im
Aufschwung und hauen im Abschwung alles raus.

Culo....ex DL genannt Hänns Rüüüüüüdi der Hiatabua :
laugh:"

Profis wie er... das ganze Board lacht


Dass er kein Profi ist, hat er schon gegenüber Thai-Guru
zur Genüge immer und immer wieder unter Beweis
gestellt




Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Goldhamster999]

@#7028
Na wer jetzt in der derzeitigen Lage für langfristige Entscheidungen über so was ernsthaft nachdenkt gehört geköpft, sofern dieser noch vorhanden ist.
Das ist sicherlich nur ein Spässchen
Da gibt’s doch sicherlich andere Wege das Gold zu vergolden ohne es zu verlieren, wenn man will.
Außerdem ist der Ausverkauf der gesamten Bestände zur Zeit eh nicht drin und wer sich bis zum letzten Barren noch alles eindecken muss ist auch nicht bekannt.

[Tippgeber1]

@colgate
alias dottore

Du outest dich als Profi...
und trägst die Eulen nach Athen
FEIN, das ist doch schon was

Zu Dir fällt mir nur folgendes
zutreffendes Sprüchlein von
Laotse Tao te King ein, passend
zur Deiner laotischen Bergziege


"Wer auf den Zehen steht,
steht nicht fest.
Wer mit gespreizten Beinen geht,
kommt nicht voran.
Wer selbst scheinen will,
wird nicht erleuchtet.
Wer selbst etwas scheinen will
wird nicht herrlich.
Wer selbst sich rühmt,
vollbringt nicht Werke.
Wer sich selbst hervortut,
wird nicht erhoben.
Er ist für den SINN wie Küchenabfall und Eiterbeule.
Darum: Wer den SINN hat,
weilt nicht dabei."


Na klicks, Du Experte des Güldenens,
mögest Du das Ego Deiner laotischen
Bergziegleins noch lange stärken
und lernen abgegebenen Wettbedingungen
einzuhalten



Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Robert_Reichschwein]

Bin so gerade am lesen und wegen 7023, ne Frage:

Weiss einer Zufällig, ob es Yüan/Dollar langlaufende Optionen irgendwo gibt?

Erwarte jetzt keine Antwort, nur die Idee angesichts der Goldakumulation in China und des Handelsbilanzüberschusses wäre eine Yüan-Aufwertung meiner Meinung nach denkbar, oder?

Na, ja, hat mit Gold nix zu tun!

[Culogrande1]

@Tippse: du lernst aber auch gar nixxe von deinem Meister...der riecht wie ein laotischer Bergziegenbock......diese werden normalerweise kastriert damit sie nicht zu stark stinken.

Nochmal zu der Wette.

Er wollte den Einsatz und die Spielregeln ändern....doch nicht ich....warum sollte ich einen Wettgewinn Gata spenden....und die Kohle bei Thai holen....du schreibst närrisches Zeug.

Wo ist der Meister???

Bist du sein Sprachrohr.....gibt er dir im Schlaf seine kopierten Eingebungen

Baccii al Culo di Culo

[Tippgeber1]

@colgate zahncreme

ich bin mein eigener Meister und fand´s allerdings
bemerkenswert, wie Thai-Guru Dich damals argumentativ
buchstäblich in Deine Einzelbestandteile zerlegt hatte
Gegen die Wahrheit bist du machtlos dottore
Da hilft kein Klagen und Jammern, da mußte durch

Bei mir hast Du auch nichts mehr hinzuzusetzen, außer
Deinem Kauderwelsch und Beleidigungen, (nichts wirklich
neues) was eh niemand versteht, geschweige denn
nachvollziehen kann.

Wenn ich auf Deine Interessen schaue, wundert mich nichts
mehr im Vertrauen, Thai kannst du doch nicht
das Wasser reichen, geschweige denn beurteilen, wie er
riecht...träume weiter Du "Profi"

Jetzt zu der von Dir angesprochene Wette.

Du schreibst:
"Er wollte den Einsatz und die Spielregeln ändern....doch
nicht ich....warum sollte ich einen Wettgewinn Gata
spenden....und die Kohle bei Thai holen....du schreibst
närrisches Zeug."


Lieber dottore colgate,
wer wird sich denn so aufregen..schad um die Energie
Nochmal, es geht nicht darum, wen oder was du spendest was
spenden solltest...du hast die Wette abgelehnt!!!! Fakt
ist also, dass ich kein närrisches Zeugs schreibe, sondern
die Faktenlage anders als du richtig analysiere.

Belege gefällig...gerne dottore...immer
Hier Dein Schreiben an Thai beigefügt.



Dottore Luppos Ablehnung meiner Bedingung für das Zustandekommen dieser Wette! #15, um 09.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Also .

Habe mich zum Frühstück zurückgezogen.

Also,Gata bekommt nichts...weil ich den Blödsinn der Butlerkonsorten nicht unterstütze.

Und von einer Wette will ich profitieren.

Es schmeckt nichts süsser als der Nektar des Verlierers.

cu DL...wie siehts aus

Dadurch, dass du dottore immer wieder falsches behauptest, wird es lieder keinen Deut richtiger: Da du wieder mal etwas confused warst, hier zur Gedächnisauffrischung der gute Rest, wie es sich tatsächlich zwischen Dir und Thai-Guru abgespielt hatte.


Die Wahrheit ist, dass du es warst, der die Wettbedingungen nicht akzeptiert hatte.


"#26 von ThaiGuru 07.02.02 22:58:57 Beitrag Nr.: 5.539.466 5539466
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | historischer Thread
@Dottore Lupo

Deine Impertinenz und Deine Wortverdrehungskünste sind wahrlich nicht zu überbieten.

Nur zur Erinnerung.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deine Wett-Herausforderung #8 um 7:34 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wollen wir wetten???

Setze eine Kiste guten Weines oder eine DP Magnum 90er oder etwas adäquates gegen deine 310 heute???

cu DL....der Minenfuchs...weil die sind vorsichtig
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meine Antwort #10 um 7:51 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wette angenommen!!

Mit einer Bedingung, dass es bei dieser Wette um eine Spende um 500.- Euro an die GATA Organisation geht, und dass der Einzahlungsbeleg hier vom Verlierer der Wette ins Board gepostet wird.

Mit Deinen 80% Gewinnen die Du mit Minenaktien schon gemacht hast, beziehe mich auf Deinen heutigen Thread *Der Dreck raucht in der Schachtel*, sollte es Dir ermöglicht haben eine Magnum Flasche Dom Perignon selbst zu kaufen.

Die GATA ist jedoch immer noch auf Unterstützung im Kampf gegen die Goldpreis Manipulateure angewiesen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Du lässt mich warten! Neues Posting #14 um 08:25
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Warte auf Deine Antwort Dottore Lupo?


Gilt die Wette mit der Spende von 500.- Euro an GATA?

Goldpreis 310 US$ heute in der USA!


Gruss

ThaiGuru
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dottore Luppos Ablehnung meiner Bedingung für das Zustandekommen dieser Wette! #15, um 09.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also .

Habe mich zum Frühstück zurückgezogen.

Also,Gata bekommt nichts...weil ich den Blödsinn der Butlerkonsorten nicht unterstütze.

Und von einer Wette will ich profitieren.

Es schmeckt nichts süsser als der Nektar des Verlierers.

cu DL...wie siehts aus
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meine Antwort auf Deine Ablehnung um 11:15 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@dottore Lupo

Schade, dass ich mich in Dir getäuscht habe!

Gold steht zur Zeit wieder über 300.- US$ pro Unze!!!!!

TG
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dann auf einmal!#20 um 17:59 Uhr, 8 Std und 45 Min nach der Ablehnung meiner Bedingung für das Zustandekommen einer Wette im Dottore Lupos Posting Nr.#15 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Komme gerade heim muß aber gleich wieder weg.
Aber nur nebenbei die Wette steht noch!!!
Und was heißt in mir getäuscht nur wenn ich meine Meinung vertrette!!!
Den Wein können wir uns schon munden lassen aber GATA kriegt nichts ab.
....bin schon weg
DL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Und zum Schluss noch den Versuch von mir eine Kiste guten Weines zu bekommen, mit der Unterstellung, durch seine indirekte Frage ob ich Wort halten würde!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dottore Lupo Posting #24 um 21:19 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@ Thai_Guru:was ist nun...bin eben von einer Besprechung zurück,das letzte Posting schrieb mein Sohn auf meine fernmündliche Anweisung.

Hier im Board gilt noch das Wort!!!!

cu DL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Falls es Deine Absicht war zu provozieren, ist Dir das sicher Gelungen, doch Weintrinken mit Dir niemals!

Gruss

ThaiGuru"



Kurz noch zu Deinen anderen Vorwürfen..Sprachrohr etc.:

Da ich hier und in anderen Threads seit Jahren schreibe,
bin ich nicht das Sprachrohr von Thai-Guru. Du scheinst
keine anderen Mittel mehr zu haben als zu derartigen
Unterstellungen greifen zu müssen..traurig. Allerdings
schätze ich ihn sehr, ob seiner objektiven Sichtweise. Ihn
vermisst man, Dich nicht


Dottore, ein Landsmann von Dir, würde Dir jetzt zurufen

............................HABEN FERTIG



Grüssels
Tippgeber

[superman6]

Schaut euch diese beiden Storys an:

IVK (Investika)


auch Anvil werden noch interessanter.

[konradi]

Manfred, Du Supermann, jetzt ist aber gut ...

[bluemoons]

The Silver and Gold Train Wreck




http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/0929.html

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
Neuartiger Goldfonds in Vorbereitung

30. September 2003 Gold soll bald einem größeren Kreis von Investoren zugänglich gemacht werden. In London wird voraussichtlich Ende Oktober ein neuartiger Investmentfonds für Gold notiert, der die Anlage sowohl für institutionelle Investoren wie für Privatanleger günstiger machen soll.

Der World Gold Council, ein Zusammenschluß von internationalen Goldproduzenten, will den Fonds an mehreren Börsenplätzen in der Welt lancieren. In New York hat sich das Listing aufgrund von aufsichtsrechtlichen Schwierigkeiten verzögert, dafür haben die Goldförderer neben der London Stock Exchange nun Euronext in Paris sowie die Börse in Hongkong ins Auge gefaßt.

Fonds, die direkt in Gold investieren, gibt es bisher nur in Australien und Kanada

Investmentfonds, die direkt in das Edelmetall investieren, gibt es bisher nur in Australien und Kanada. In Australien hat im März die Gold Bullion Ltd. weltweit den ersten Goldfonds dieser Art auf den Markt gebracht. Die Nachfrage verläuft außerordentlich erfreulich, sagt Graham Tuckwell, Chairman der Gold Bullion Ltd., vor allem gemessen an den geringen Marketingausgaben. Seit März haben die Investoren gut sechs Tonnen Gold über den an der australischen Börsen notierten Fonds gekauft und dafür rund 75 Millionen Dollar investiert. Bei der australischen Initiative handelt es sich aber nur um einen kleinen Schritt, verglichen mit dem bevorstehenden Projekt des World Gold Council, der auch Tuckwells Gold Bullion Ltd. unterstützt hat.

Bisher waren Goldgeschäfte für Privatanleger mühsam und teuer. Das lag vor allem an den hohen Lager-, Transport- und Versicherungskosten des Edelmetalls. "Wenn Sie bei einem Marktpreis von 350 Dollar je Feinunze bei einer herkömmlichen Bank beispielsweise Goldmünzen kaufen, dann bekommen Sie diese vielleicht für 380 Dollar je Feinunze. Wenn Sie diese wieder verkaufen, dann erhalten Sie wahrscheinlich nur 340 Dollar", erklärt ein Londoner Edelmetallanalyst. Beim neuen Goldfonds aber haben sich die Goldförderer darauf geeinigt, die Aufschläge niedrig zu halten, denn die Investorenbasis für Gold soll verbreitert werden, etwa durch Pensionsfonds und Privatanleger, die ihre Portfolios diversifizieren wollen.

Deutliche Reduktion der Transaktionskosten angestrebt

Die Transaktionskosten sollen sich ähnlich wie bei normalen Aktiengeschäften auf rund 0,35 Prozent des zugrundeliegenden Wertes belaufen. Das vergleicht sich mit bisherigen Kosten für Goldtransaktionen von bis zu sieben Prozent. Ein Anteil des in London notierten Fonds soll aus einem Zehntel einer Feinunze Gold - das sind rund 32 Gramm - bestehen. Der Kunde hat auch ein Recht auf Auslieferung zwei Tage nach Auftragsvergabe. Anders als etwa bei Goldzertifikaten, wo eine Bank den Wert entsprechend den Schwankungen des Goldpreises garantiert, besteht bei einem Goldinvestmentfonds zudem kein Risiko durch einen Ausfall der Bank, denn die Investition ist durch den realen Kauf von Gold unterlegt. Im Fall der bevorstehenden Londoner Notierung fungiert die Bank HSBC als Verwalter der gekauften Goldmengen.

Auf dem Goldfonds des World Gold Council ruhen große Hoffnungen. Auf dem Gold Forum im amerikanischen Denver, einem wichtigen Branchentreff, waren die neuen Finanzvehikel in der vergangenen Woche Thema Nummer eins. "In den vergangenen zwanzig Jahren hat Gold der Welt in finanzieller Hinsicht nicht besonders genützt. Mit der Abschwächung des Dollar gibt es aber neues Interesse an Gold als Anlageobjekt", sagte Pierre Lassonde, der Präsident des führenden Goldproduzenten Newmont Mining. Dieses Interesse müsse mit den richtigen Instrumenten befriedigt werden. Daß die Einführung von Goldfonds Investoren aus den Aktien von Goldminenbetreibern flüchten lassen könnte, wird weniger erwartet. "Es gibt so viel aufgestaute Nachfrage von neuen Investoren", sagt der Analyst einer kanadischen Bank.

Goldminenaktien gelten als relativ riskant

Goldminenaktien gelten als riskant, weil bei ihnen neben dem Goldpreis Einflüsse wie die Qualität des Managements, das Länderrisiko in Entwicklungsländern sowie die Qualität der Goldreserven und die Kosten ihrer Hebung den Aktienkurs beeinflussen.

Viele Investoren sagen dem Kurs des Edelmetalls eine goldene Zukunft voraus. Auch die Deutsche Bank, die in Australien in diesem Monat Bezugsrechte auf Aktien des Investmentfonds Gold Bullion herausgebracht hat, schürt die Stimmung. "Der Preis von Gold ist bei 374 Dollar je Feinunze durch eine wichtige technische Widerstandslinie gebrochen", meint David Sarkis, Chef für Aktienderivate. "Dieser Umstand sowie die wachsende Nachfrage der Investoren, die Dollar-Instabilität, die nachlassenden Absicherungsaktivitäten der Produzenten und die verringerte Förderung in den Minen könnten den Goldpreis in den kommenden Monaten bis auf 450 Dollar je Feinunze treiben". Am Dienstag notierte er bei fast 385 Dollar.

Text: chs. / Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 01.10.2003, Nr. 228 / Seite 27

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub76BA6348017C42E2AED144FD3C852D2F/Doc…

[Tippgeber1]

Username: Culogrande1
User wurde gesperrt
Registriert seit: 19.01.2003 [ seit 254 Tagen ]
User ist momentan: Offline
Letztes Login: 30.09.2003 09:26:15
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[bluemoons]

http://www.stockmove.de/

[bluemoons]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/rodin100203.html

[ThaiGuru]

MOSCOW, October 2 (Itar-Tass) - On September 19-26, Russia`s gold reserves have grown by 500…

[Magor]

Wie einfach eine Entschuldung doch geht:

Auszug aus
"Der Spekulant 29.09.03":

Sehr volatil waren dieser Tage die Kurse argentinischer Staatsanleihen, wie etwa unserer im Musterdepot befindlichen Anleihe mit der WKN 190.430 bzw. ISIN DE0001904308. Die vorausgesagten langen Gesichter gab es rund um den ersten Vorschlag der argentinischen Regierung für die privaten Gläubiger. So sollten die einstigen Geldgeber freiwillig auf 75 % ihrer Forderungen verzichten und erhielten dann für den Rest neue langlaufende Bonds quasi im Austausch. Die in den letzen beiden Jahren angelaufenen Zinsen sollten laut dem Plan des argentinischen Wirtschaftsministers Roberto Lavagna auch nicht bezahlt werden.

Ob diejenigen heute besser dastehen, die lieber auf "unnützes, keine Zinsen bringendes" Silber oder Gold gesetzt hatte, anstatt auf Staatsversprechungen welche allzu oft nicht das Papier wert sind, auf welchem sie gedruckt sind?

Gold strong buy!

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

#7045

Genau so ist es!

Auch beim Gold wird entschuldet!

Wenn man sich diese Gold Chart ansieht, stellt man zwei bemerkenswerte Anomalien fest:

1. Die angegebenen Goldpreise, Höchst und Tief, weichen zwischen INO.com und Comdirekt um bemerkenswerte 1.60 pro Unze Gold ab.

2. Das Gold Cabal hat wieder einmal mehr die "Notbremse" gezogen!


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Diesen Chart habe ich noch vergessen zu zeigen!

Der Dollar steigt auf wundersame Weise innerhalb von Minuten…

[Magor]

Diese "Auswüchse" sind schon fast symptomatisch,
auch bei Aktien.
Bei Hecla z.B. ist mir dieses öfter aufgefallen.
Bei der unverständlichen Größe der Ausschläge gerade zu Börsenbeginn NY hatte ich den Verdacht,
daß besonders schlaue die im Markt liegenden Order,
stop-buy und stop-loss so eben mal abfischen ...

Grüße
Magor

[Wavetrader]

#7044

31% mehr als die 47,8 Milliarden Dollar im Januar? Das wären gut 62 Milliarden Dollar.

Aber: Jetzt seht euch mal folgende Meldung an http://www.mdz-moskau.de/Wirtschaft_und_Finanzen/2003/06/09/…

Demnach sind die Gold-/Devisenreserven Russlands seit Mai sogar gesunken.

[user_m]

Kennt jemand die WP-Nummern der Fonds welche physisches Gold halten bzw. um welche Fondgesellschaften handelt es sich ? Danke im voraus

[Thoemsi]

Aus dem Stehgreif fällt mir der DWS Gold Plus ein (973246)

Gruß

Thoemsi

[Tippgeber1]

@Thai-Guru
@Wavetrader


Die Märkte sind hoffnungslos überbewertet.
Gute Zeit zum Nachkaufen


Ich teile daher Roland Leuschels Tipps:

"Fazit : Ich wiederhole meine Anlageempfehlung aus den letzten Monaten, kaufen Sie Gold und akkumulieren Sie Triple A Anleihen. Auch empfehle ich nach wir vor die 1%ige Goldanleihe von HSBC Trinkaus, die in 5 Jahren mindestens zu 100% in Euro zurückgezahlt wird. Der Anleger kann aber an einer eventuellen Goldpreishausse in Dollar ausgedrückt zu 45% partizipieren. Ausserdem kann ich Ihnen einen in Euro aufgelegten Rentenfonds empfehlen, der nur in Staatsanleihen der USA (Tips), Englands und Frankreichs investiert wird, deren Wert an den jeweiligen Lebenshaltungsindex gekoppelt ist, « Inflation @ Work », aufgelegt von einer kleinen Investmentbank Capital @ Work in Luxemburg. Bei einer Inflationsrate von 10% p.a. würde eine 10-jährige Staatsanleihe im Jahre 2013 zu 134,3% zurückgezahlt. Der Markt für inflationsgeschützte Anleihen ist seit 1997 stark angestiegen und umfasst schon heute mehr als 400 Milliarden Euro. Bei dem augenblicklichen rapiden Anwachsen der Staatsschulden auf der einen Seite und der Vollbeschäftigung der Geldpressen der Notenbanken auf der anderen Seite ist in den kommenden Jahren ein Anstieg der Inflationsraten zu erwarten. Solange bei den Notenbanken, unter Führung Alan Greenspans, eine Mentalität besteht, die es erlaubt, dass die US-Geldpolitik nicht mit festgelegten Regeln sondern aus dem Bauch ihres Präsidenten geleitet wird, solange streben wir mit grossen Schritten der Weltwirtschafts- und Währungskrise II entgegen. Wie hat ein ehemaliger US-Finanzminister zum damaligen deutschen Finanzminister gesagt : « Der Dollar ist unsere Währung und Euer Problem. » Daran hat sich bis heute nichts geändert.

Roland Leuschel"


Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Wavetrader]

Ich habe mal gehört, dass es sehr schwierig für die Banken sein soll, den Lebenshaltungskosten-Index in Produkte einfließen zu lassen. Genau so, wie es technisch noch kein Konzept gibt, Zertifikate auf den VDAX (der ja wiederum von Optionen-Volas abhängt) anzubieten, also mit der Volatilität direkt zu spekulieren.

[ThaiGuru]

@Tippgeber1

Nachdem was heute abgezogen wurde, sollten sich jetzt noch einige Leute mehr fragen, ob es nicht besser ist dem dringenden Rat von Roland Leuschel zu folgen, und physisches Gold zu kaufen.

Es ist gerade heute eben wieder um 20.- Dollar pro Unze "sub…

Ich frage mich wirklich wie hoch die KGVs in den USA, und an den übrigen westlichen Börsen noch steigen müssen, bis die Fiat Money gierige Masse von Aktien Anleger merken, dass dies nicht lange gut gehen kann.

Habe heute morgen diese zwei zum heutigen Geschehen beim Gold, und an den Börsen, wirklich sehr zutreffenden Sätze gelesen, die meiner Meinung nach exakt wiedergeben, zu was uns diese Manipulationen an den Märkten führen werden.
Auch wenn es heute für viele Leute wieder einmal mehr nicht danach aussehen mag. Doch die Geschichte dürfte sich wiederholen.


In the 1920s Weimar Republic share prices rose also and everyone marked themselves wealthy...until gold ruined the party."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"While three is "no meaningful limit" to paper instruments a…


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[silvo]

Hallo Thai!

Schön, daß wenigstens du dich nach solch einem Gold-Silber-Katastrophentag meldest und etwas aufmunderst!!


(Hab heute zwar viel verloren, bleib aber trotzdem optimistisch)

[ThaiGuru]

@silvio

Du glaubst es mir vielleicht nicht, aber ich bin sogar sehr optimistisch gestimmt. Das heutige Goldpreisgeschehen wird noch gewaltig zu reden geben, und vor allem zu schreiben. Das ist genau das was die Gold Bugs brauchen. Es muss endlich über diese Vorkommnisse geschrieben werden.

Morgen können wirklich nur noch Vol.id.oten schreiben der 20.- Dollar Goldpreis Einbruch (vom Hoch zum Tief) sei fundamental begründet gewesen.

Die meisten Analysten werden etwas Erklärungsnotstand verspüren.

Dass der Dollar plötzlich innerhalb von Minuten so stark ansteigt, ist ja auch mehr als ungewöhnlich!

Das Dow, Nasdaq, und Dax geradezu explodiert sind, ist meines Erachtens ja wohl auch nicht wegen etwaig zu niedrigen KGVs passiert.

Dass die FED gestern über die Repo Märkte ihre "Primery Dealers" (Die Deutsche Bank gehört auch dazu)Banken mit viel, viel zusätzlicher Liquidität versorgt hatte, war sicher auch kein Zufall.

Ab Montag werden sich mit Sicherheit die Inder wieder verstärkt mit physischem Gold eindecken.

Also warten wir mal ab wie lange es diesmal dauern wird bis die Gold Preise, und natürlich auch die Gold Aktien Preise wieder abheben.

Länger wie ein, zwei Wochen wird es diesmal nicht dauern.

Ein User hat mir heute per BM geschrieben, dass er das Gefühl habe, dass etwas ganz grosses hinter den Kulissen beim Goldpreisgeschehen ablaufe. Ich kann ihm dabei nur zustimmen.

Das es heute riesige Mengen Papier Gold Verkäufe benötigt hat, und diesen 20.- ++ Dollar Gold Preis Abverkauf zu initiieren kann ich auch nur nochmals betonen. Vieviele 100erte von Tonnen es gewesen sind werde ich morgen hier im Thread veröffentlichen.

Trotz, oder gerade wegen dem heutigen "Einbruch" beim Goldpreis, werden wir die 400.- Dollar pro Unze Linie schon bald fallen sehen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Nachbörslich erholt sich die Bema Gold anscheinend in den USA schon wieder!


BEMA GOLD (AMEX:BGO)

After Hours (RTM/ECN): 2.48 0.04 (+1.64%)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

October 3, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled lower at $368.70 an ounce, down $13.70 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold fell in mid-session on a surprise rise in employment and a rally in equities while treasuries fell lower. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures fell by as much as $16.70 to trade at a low of $367 an ounce, their lowest level since Aug. 27. The futures market hasn`t seen a daily price decline over $11 an ounce since July 22 of last year, according to John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. Despite the latest decline, Person said he still sees "gold as a strong candidate to reach over $400 by the year`s end." Gold made a dramatic sell-off in just minutes Friday because very large traders liquidated their positions and triggered technical sell-stops in the market, he explained. The "next big level of support" comes in around $365, he said, so next week may, or may not bring in the "bargain hunters."

Analysts see gold trading above $400 an ounce this year. The dollar is on the ropes and investors are diversifying into bullion as portfolio insurance, amid worries that the summer manufacturing rebound could falter if the employment picture does not improve to sustain consumer demand. "This is one of the few signs of encouragement we`ve seen in a long time," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank. "We`re going to see a lot of gyrations in the market. Right now, with the dollar strengthening, gold is going to be under pressure," he added.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $384.25 an ounce, up from $383.95 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold bounced up after being knocked earlier in volatile European activity on Friday after a shock rise in U.S. payrolls sent the dollar soaring against the euro, making the dollar-denominated metal less affordable for European investors. Dealers said they were heartened however by bullion`s ability to come back up quickly and said a positive close later would bode well for the overall fund-led up-trend, which sent prices to seven-year peaks around $393.00 last week. But some analysts doubt the strength of the forex-fuelled rally. "The slip in the gold price in other currencies continues to indicate that the quality of this rally... is deteriorating," said John Reade, precious metals analyst at investment bank UBS, in a daily research note. "While a sharp fall in the dollar could lift gold higher in the near term, our FX strategists caution that the dollar could post a bounce in the near future and a break below $379.00/oz in gold would probably trigger more profit taking," he said. "Dealer views are mixed. Some are of the view that since Comex has had net long positions for some time, perhaps some of these need to be washed out before prices are to improve again, while others are pointing to the physical bargain hunting support that is appearing around current levels just above $380/oz," analyst Rhona O`Connell of the World Gold Council said. After trading in a narrow range of $382-$385/oz Thursday, gold is expected to trade cautiously and in tandem with the currencies ahead of Friday`s job data releases in the U.S., O`Connell said.

The dollar will be at $1.15 per euro by Dec. 31 and at the end of March, the mean forecast shows. Bear Stearns Cos., UBS and Nomura Holdings Inc. have the most bearish outlook on the dollar against the euro, seeing a slump to $1.25 by March 31. The survey also predicts the dollar will trade at $1.65 against the pound by year-end and weaken to $1.66 by March 31. The U.S. currency will trade at 1.37 against the Swiss franc and end the first quarter there. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Travelex Group have the second most bearish outlook for the dollar against the euro, eyeing a tumble to $1.23 BY March 31. The dollar has dropped about 10 percent against Europe`s common currency this year. Deutsche Bank AG, Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Stone & McCarthy and Merrill Lynch & Co. share the third-most negative prediction for the dollar against the euro, expecting a drop to $1.22 by the end of March. Deutsche Bank`s Trevor Dinmore predicts the dollar will extend its decline against the euro this year as the level of the currency already reflects investors` expectations the U.S. economy is accelerating in the second half of the year. The U.S. economy needs to attract about $2.7 billion a day of foreign investment to fund its current-account deficit and keep the dollar from falling. The current account gap widened to a record $138.7 billion in the second quarter. ``It will take U.S. data to constantly surpass expectations to help the dollar,`` said Dinmore. ``We expect more near-term weakness in the currency.``


ASIA:

Spot gold closed higher in Hong Kong at $383.90. Gold was slightly higher in early Asia trade on Friday, mainly driven by a stronger yen against the U.S. dollar. "As we near 110 yen, the market naturally gets anxious about possible intervention," said Junya Tanase, global markets officer at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. But dealers said the bullion market was cautious ahead of the release of the U.S. employment report for September. "TOCOM is slightly on the buying side. A stronger yen makes gold cheaper and that`s why you saw some demand. But in general the market is very quiet," said one bullion dealer in Tokyo. "I think trading will be range-bound next week. We may see prices hovering at between $380 and $389," he said. "COMEX has been quite long for some time. We may see some correction, which will push down prices to $370 or $375 before the market rebounds," said one dealer in Singapore, referring to the U.S. market. "Over a short-term period, you will see the market going and up and down but I think we will see more of an uptrend. Overall sentiment is still bullish," he said. "Gold`s next move could hinge on the dollar`s reaction to the jobs report," said Martin Mayne, associate director of bullion sales at N M Rothschild and Sons in Sydney. "We see gold trading $381 to $386 (an ounce for the time being), with a breach of these levels possibly driven by the U.S. non-farm payrolls data tonight," ABN AMRO`s precious metals team added. "Things still look OK here, despite the risk of some pullbacks," an analyst with Westpac Institutional Bank said. "The weaker dollar, continued `de-hedging` policies by producers and global security concerns all add up to good prospects going forward," he added.

``An extreme move in the yen would pose a big risk to the fragile recovery in Japan,`` said Daniel Katzive, a foreign- exchange analyst at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The Bank of Japan has the ability and the motivation to prevent it.`` The dollar will be at 110 per yen by Dec. 31, predicts UBS, the largest currency trader, according to Euromoney magazine. The Bank of Japan sold its currency at least three days this week, once confirmed by the Ministry of Finance, or MOF, and twice by people who deal with the central bank. ``Will it work and MOF/BOJ succeed in holding the 110 line?`` wrote Uwe Parpart, a strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong. ``Unless the U.S. employment outlook appears so dim as to scuttle international confidence in the dollar,`` Tanigaki will prevail, Parpart said in a report.

About 2 percentage points of the yen`s 7.1 percent increase against the dollar in the last quarter came after a meeting on Sept. 20 of the Group of Seven Industrialized Nations at which finance ministers called for more flexible exchange rates. The statement was read by many investors as a signal that Japan would scale back sales of yen. Not so, say Tanigaki and Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui. ``This is a battle with the market,`` Tanigaki told Bloomberg News. Fukui said ``irregular`` moves will hurt Japan`s recovery. Japan sold a record amount of yen in September, figures released by the government on Tuesday showed. The central bank sold 4.46 trillion yen ($40.4 billion) from Aug. 28 to Sept. 26 and has sold a record 13.5 trillion yen this year to stem gains. ``The figures show they are prepared to fight tooth and nail to keep it above 110,`` said Ian Gunner, London-based head of foreign-exchange research at Mellon Financial Corp., which oversees $612 billion in assets. ``Japan has seen so many recoveries stall and they don`t want to see another.`` Bear Stearns has the most positive forecast for the yen, anticipating it will gain to 97 against the dollar by the end of March. Westpac Banking Corp., headquartered in Sydney, expects the next steepest gain and predicts it will be at 100 by March 31. ``Exporters will be hurt very badly if we see dollar-yen stay around these levels,`` said Greg Salvaggio, vice president for currency trading at Tempus Consulting in Washington. Along with Bank of America, Tempus had the most negative forecast for the yen, expecting it to weaken to 122 by the end of March.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Two Canadian peacekeepers were killed and three wounded when their jeep hit a land mine in the Afghan capital Kabul on Thursday, a spokesman for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said. ISAF spokesman Major Kevin Arata said the Canadian soldiers were on a regular patrol when one of two vehicles in the convoy hit what Canadian officials called a very large explosive device. But Ottawa said there was no question of pulling out its troops.

The Islamic militant movement Hamas said on Friday the barrier Israel is building with the West Bank would not prevent attacks on Israelis and doomed the U.S.-backed peace "road map" to failure. "The wall will not protect the Zionist entity and will not stop the strikes of resistance. The day will come when this wall will eventually collapse just as the Berlin Wall collapsed," Hamas said in a statement released in the Gaza Strip. The statement stepped up a Palestinian campaign against the barrier, which Israel decided on Wednesday to extend deeper into Palestinian territory to enclose some big Jewish settlements.

North Korea said Friday it had successfully finished reprocessing some 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods in June and had switched technology to enhance its use of plutonium extracted from the rods for possible atomic weapons. The official KCNA news agency said the North`s nuclear complex at Yongbyon, north of the capital Pyongyang, was "operating on a normal footing." It said the reprocessing plant was fully ready to resume operations any time. KCNA was adding detail to a North Korean Foreign Ministry statement Thursday that said Pyongyang had finished reprocessing the fuel rods -- part of its declared nuclear weapons program. The rods were sealed under a 1994 deal with the United States that unraveled a year ago. The United States, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan are seeking to draw North Korea back to the negotiating table for more talks on ending the program. There was an inconclusive first round of talks in Beijing in August.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The number of workers on U.S. payrolls outside the farm sector grew 57,000 last month, the first time since January that jobs were created and sharply contrary to Wall Street economists` forecasts for a 30,000-job loss. On another hotly awaited statistic, Labor said a preliminary measure indicated it will revise down its estimate of payroll employment by about 145,000, or 0.1 percent, for the March 2003 reference year when it issues benchmark revisions next February. That is smaller than the average 0.3 percent revisions it has made over the past 10 years. Job losses were surprisingly downwardly to 41,000 in August (a first probably due to the new BLS methodology in data collection). Friday`s labor report showed services added 74,000 jobs last month, the biggest gain in eight months. But factories shed 29,000 positions, bringing the total job cuts in the manufacturing sector to more than 450,000 this year. Of course nearly 60% of the increase in jobs is due to growth in temporary jobs.

The Institute for Supply Management`s non-manufacturing index fell to 63.3 in September from a record-matching 65.1 in August, beating economists` forecasts for a pull-back to 62.5. Any reading over 50 suggests growth in the five-year old survey of businesses ranging from travel agencies to restaurants and accountants, which make up about 80 percent of the U.S. economy. The service sector has held up better than hard-hit factories in the uneven recovery in the two years since the U.S. recession ended, but they have been unable to create enough employment to offset big layoffs at manufacturers. Even with strong growth this quarter thanks to tax cuts, many executives and economists worry that the latest economic rebound will fade once that extra cash is spent or saved. Some survey respondents said that while business is improving, they are keeping a tight grip on costs. The ISM employment index fell to 49.1 from 51.0 in August. That level suggests job losses but is close enough to the 50 line separating growth from contraction that it likely signals businesses are refraining from hiring workers.

Foreign central banks stepped up their purchases of U.S. Treasuries and agencies in the latest week, confounding speculation that the recent weakness of the dollar could prompt Asian central banks to pare their massive holdings. The Federal Reserve said on Thursday its holdings of Treasuries and agencies for foreign central banks rose a hefty $12.1 billion to a record $980.15 billion as of Wednesday Oct. 1 compared to the prior Wednesday. Foreign central banks mostly bought Treasuries rather than debt issued by U.S. government backed agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reversing the pattern of the previous week. Holdings of Treasuries rose $10.86 billion in the week to an all-time high of $786.561 billion, while agency debt rose $1.22 billion in the week to Oct. 1, to stand at $193.59 billion.

Central bank policy meetings in Australia, Britain and Japan will inject some nervousness into the market, while German jobless figures will also court attention in an otherwise quiet data week. The greenback was sent reeling after Group of Seven nations called for currency flexibility to smooth global imbalances on September 20 -- wording markets took to mean the G7 wanted to foster a weaker dollar to ease pressure on the ballooning U.S. trade gap. Figures next Friday are expected to show the U.S. trade deficit widened to $41 billion in August from $40.3 in July as imports continued to outpace exports. Such a figure would put the deficit above the $40 billion mark for five consecutive months.


Comment:

Gold traded in a narrow range until mid-session in New York trade. Some analysts say that the rally in equities and a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar on suspected fourth straight day of Japanese currency market intervention with a rise of $200 billion in the Japanese debt ceiling for more currency intervention and a surprising rise in employment data when losses were expected helped to spur the selling. Other analysts made the claim that profit taking occurred ahead of the weekend and the upcoming Jewish holidays starting on Monday. What that should mean as a reason for selling precious metals for selling precious metals is beyond me as it could also mean that Palestinian terrorism activities against Israeli and Jewish interests may actually increase. Nevertheless gold fell through several stops triggering more fund selling. Silver also fell 27 cents on the session while Platinum hit new 23-year highs. As weak hands let loose of their precious metals positions this bodes well for the physical market as the Indian subcontinent will likely be encouraged to take more gold off the market for the Festival and marriage seasons as harvests have been reported to be very good with a decent monsoon season ending a multiyear drought. Still, when cooler heads prevail bargain hunting should reemerge as buyers load up on precious metals with these lower prices.

Another rumor surfaced that one large fund started the selling of precious metals on profit taking due to a U.S. dollar that weakened less than its rivals the Yen and Euro, and that triggered stop loss orders that collapsed like dominoes sending gold and silver lower. Again this is ultimately good for the precious metals as weak hands get washed out of the market clearing the way for serious gold investors and giving physical buyers a chance to begin some bargain hunting ahead of expected strong foreign buying of precious metals, the central Asian Festival and Marriage season, as well as buying from western jewelry fabricators ahead of the gift giving holidays. Western physical precious metals investors could also be expected to appear on the scene with these lower prices. The liberalized Chinese market and the Peoples Bank of China are likely candidates to increase buying as well. There is talk that the Chinese are considering a possible rise in the price band pegging the yuan to the dollar and that may push them to increase their diversification out of dollar held assets into other currencies as well as add to their growing gold reserves.

Meanwhile even with the “official” rate of inflation running at 1.8% (unofficially much higher) and the nominal interest rate at the Federal Reserve running at 1%, the resulting “negative real rate” is supportive of hard assets like the precious metals. In effect you are getting paid to hold assets that will hold value. In the short term precious metals present a bargain as the news on last month’s job growth was really a minor event as the majority of those jobs are temporary outsourcing jobs. Manufacturing jobs continued to slide as job growth occurred in the service industry (someone must flip burgers and deliver pizzas). We are still a long way off from serious strong job growth if the economy is to recover and that would require a growth rate of nearly 300,000 new jobs per month. Nevertheless, traders bought stocks in a knee jerk reaction to the employment news. The equities markets rallied strongly on the news while treasuries fell hard while U.S. dollar weakened less than the yen and euro. In short, precious metals (less platinum) are strong buys now.


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[hotspot33]

Jobs Report which was the tool to attack gold today
(...) I want to share with you a few of my thoughts on the Jobs Report which was the tool utilized to run the stops and therefore to attack gold today.

(...) I am surprised that any public having seen so much alteration of truth in public statements accepts today’s statistics as heralding anything except more of the same. I will wager you that there will be a downward revision of this figure next month as is common.

(....) My take on all this can be expressed in the following terms. Nothing whatsoever has changed in relation to the current economic climate. The triple US Deficit is growing. The Bernanke Federal Reserve Electronic Money Creating Machine is on full blast and is going to remain on.


Friday, October 03, 2003

Comments From Far And Wide

Author: Jim Sinclair

[Thoemsi]

Hier nochmal ein paar tröstende Worte von Jim Sincläir

Friday, October 03, 2003

"Hit Me With Your Best Shot"

Author: Jim Sinclair



Before we get down to the nitty gritty, you might want to turn on your stereo to the sounds of Pat Benatar?s "Hit Me With Your Best Shot" which seems somewhat appropriate today.

The long side stops (stop loss orders ignorantly placed in large lots on the Comex by those long with limits that key off market sell orders in gold futures) gained size on the Comex and were sitting at $379.50 to 381.00.



The floor traders representing the Cartel dealers had been shooting for them all morning.

When the equity market took a second bullish breath and the long bond broke down below 109 and the dollar rallied, the Cartel made its big move.

The $385 level was the major "hold the line play" today and running the stops - along with a rumor that central banks were selling gold -completed the play.

Respecting your opposition is an important criterion for warfare. The Cartel went from desperate to aggressive but will return to desperate before too long.

If the Cartel bought some comfort, they had better enjoy it because it`s temporary IMO.

Besides, gold`s performance was becoming a mental health issue for many of these people and they needed a lift even if the elevator failed to make it to the top floor again.

Having been more than $20,000,000 short of the long bond, I converted half and am holding out a bag in the gold Calls.

Regarding how low gold can go, it is my belief that we hit that point in just about one shot today. The mid $360`s was, IMO, the maximum downside potential and it may have been satisfied.

As reported to me yesterday, the Aden Sisters recommended cutting all gold share positions by 50%. So with the exception of Harry Schultz, most gold advisers plowed the way for the Cartel to make their big play today. (With all the stuff they`ve been shovelling these past few months, the plow probably never got out of first gear).

Now for those that sold 1/3 of their investment positions, draw your Power Down Trend lines immediately and be prepared to replace your position the moment this key line is broken to the upside or we have a signal from the internal indicator entering into the buy zones followed by an indication of a turn. However, do not utilize margin. It is the killer of killers in gold shares.

If you ignored my pleas to sell 1/3 of your position when the internals turned weak and share prices were still climbing, FORGIVE YOURSELF and forget about it. You will get many more chances.

This is a long bull market in gold which is headed above $400 and over $500. For those who were prepared, today was an opportunity not a depressing event.

Today is just as much a product of too many gold analysts making too many recommendations. Once again, I ask you to select who you believe in and stay with that person. Also, be sure to respect trend lines more than any analyst.

You will have your chance to be more professional because today`s action is a minor road bump on the way to higher prices. But you must be willing to stay the course. Rest assured, I`m not going anywhere and will be here for you in the days ahead.

Yes, I am tired and spread a bit thin at the moment. But if you need me use the code word "Emergency" and my turbo charger will kick into action.

As always, if you did not listen to me and are on borrowed money, close out your debt and start again with cash.

No one can sit with a margin call. I have never met a margin call and will never satisfy one with anything but liquidation.

[ThaiGuru]

October 3 - Gold $368.70 down $13.70 - Silver $4.80 down 26 cents

United States Management of Financial Markets An Outrage

“From the glow of enthusiasm I let the melody escape. I purs… Ludwig von Beethoven

GO GATA!!!!

Just arrived in Calgary. Warmer here than in Dallas. How strange. Just like the US financial markets.

What a day! This morning was one of the most impressive gold openings ahead of a major economic report I have seen in years. All week long gold was higher during the Asian trading hours, suggesting the Chinese buying out of Australia and New Zealand is ongoing.

Ahead of this now infamous US employment report, gold opened up $2 higher and then shot up almost $4. The dollar was hovering around unchanged. The reason for the gold strength was surging demand in the physical market. The AM Fix in London was $383.95 and the PM Fix was $384.25. As a reminder, physical gold dealings all over the world for this Friday were based on the PM Fix in London. The gold market was relatively on fire and about to close in new high ground. All week The Gold Cartel sat on gold, even though the dollar continued to weaken.

The Wall Street pundits were all expecting a weak jobs report. Made sense as all the input said employers were laying off workers, not hiring. Miraculously, the employment report was far better ON THE SURFACE than anyone expected:

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. businesses added workers to payrolls for the first time in eight months in September as companies gained confidence the economic expansion may be sustained. The gain wasn`t enough to lower the unemployment rate, which held at 6.1 percent. The increase in payrolls was the first rise since January and followed a 41,000 decline in August that was smaller than reported last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. The jobless rate compares with a nine-year high of 6.4 percent reached in June.

Economists had expected payrolls would fall by 25,000 last month following a previously reported decrease of 93,000 in August, according to the median of 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would rise a tenth of a percentage point to 6.2 percent.

One reason the unemployment rate held steady is that a smaller percentage of the population was in the labor force. The labor force participation rate fell to 66.1 percent, the lowest since December 1991. The U.S. economy has now lost 2.6 million jobs since March 2001, the start of a recession that ended in November of that year.

-END-

Wham! Gold collapsed and the stock market soared.

Even thus, with the dollar soaring and the euro going down 1 on the day, gold roared back to go up $2.60. The gold action was spectacular and fit in with how it was trading all morning.

The increasingly desperate Gold Cartel then went into action. First, they began bombing silver. For years silver has been the cabal’s play toy. They have kept the price subdued and pressure it whenever they want to send a message to gold traders. Then, MORGAN STANLEY and JP MORGAN CHASE, cartel hitmen, went after gold with a vengeance.

What is important to note is they waited until the enormous physical buying was over with at the PM Fix. That is the reason the Fix was so high. Once the Fix was over, they attacked the PAPER market on the Comex. It is about this time I left for Calgary and for the most part was out of the loop, so I don’t have any other names on who did what. Clearly, this attack was pre-planned and no doubt both Morgans got the word out to the rest of the cabal members to aid and abet.

Two notes:

*The Gold Cartel capped, capped, capped gold the past two we…

Silver broke 10 cents before the cabal was able to do anything with gold. But, they were only building steam. The silver trashing was abominable. If anything, the employment news could be construed by the mainstream analysts as constructive. Meanwhile, platinum roared to a 23-year high early and commodity prices were steady with crude oil surging again, closing at $30.35 per barrel, up 56 cents on the day.

This is when I left for the airport. Obviously, The Gold Cartel was able to elect the stops and send the black box specs into puking mode. And puke they did. John Brimelow just sent an email reporting today’s gold volume:

35,000- by 12
40,000- 12 -1 PM
90,000- 1 1-30 - no wonder th…

You were well away.

JB

(165`000 Papier Gold Kontrakte wurden also verkauft. Das entspricht der gewaltigen Menge von 513.20 Tonnen Gold. (Ein Gold Future Kontrakt entspricht 100 Unzen Gold, oder ca. 3 KG) 513.20 Tonnen Papier Gold an einem einzigen verkauft, bei einer totalen Welt Goldproduktion von ca. 2500 Tonnen! TG)

You have heard me mention the Gold Cartel’s $6 rule on the upside, which means they go all out to cap gold or knock it down around that level. You can go back over the past half decade and review how few times gold rallied more than $6+. Yet, on the downside there is none of that, no limit. Today had to be one of the biggest drops in years. I suspect ALL other bigger drops (and there could not be many) were all directly related to some kind of specific bearish gold announcement. This was the opposite, gold was roaring in overseas trading action with the commentary building positive momentum.

What we saw today was a pathetic bunch of bullies that have been getting the crap kicked out of them and were forced to violate the anti-trust laws again by orchestrating a coordinated attack on gold using a very strange employment report to their favor.

After five years of administration lies about the gold market, it is only natural to be VERY cynical about this surprising report, which surfaces as the Bush Administration is under siege. The jobs issue is one of the most important for the US political/economic scene. If the numbers were not fudged, it would be a very positive development, but I don`t buy it. The anecdotal evidence everywhere suggests jobs are not being created. Now, this government number tells us that notion is not exactly correct??? Something is rotten in the state of Denmark as they say, or more appropriately, something is rotten in Washington and on Wall Street.

As for me, it all fits as far as the scoundrel nature of the entire Washington/Wall Street scene. Mysteriously, the Dow rises almost 200 points on Wednesday for no apparent reason, driven by the massive and mysterious futures buying of Goldman Sachs. The same Goldman Sachs that is called on to bomb gold every time it is about to break out. In addition, before the employment number was released this morning, the S&P rose 3 points all of sudden, again for no apparent reason. Once the employment news broke, the S&P quickly rallied another 12. Gold dropped $5 off its high as the dollar was crushed.

You can’t tell me Goldman wasn’t tipped off about this emplo…

Yesterday, I suspected a “dramatic” move and thought it would be up. Almost right, but dead wrong in the end. City Hall won the day, but I suspect not for long. Gold might suffer for a little while as more specs are forced out, but the handwriting is on the wall. The world is becoming more and more suspect of the doings of the United States, in many respects. The outrageous financial market shenanigans are part of a bigger picture which grows more murky by the day.

The dollar is going to tank, the US stock market won’t stay up on doctored reports much longer and gold is going to soar. The only thing that changed from early this morning with gold near 7-year highs was the activity of a group of White Collar Thugs. The “10+” gold fundamentals are intact. In normal times it would take gold a long time to rebound after this kind of trouncing, but these are not normal times. Gold should be knocking on $400 again before too long.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday, October 3, 2003

India (at least) to the rescue

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.21, PM $7.52, with world gold at $383.10 and $384.10. Deep into legal buying territory. The rupee closed today at a three year high, and that and the fortuitous weakening in world gold has given the Indians an opportunity. Bad news for Bears.

In what Mitsubishi describes as a "very dull day" TOCOM volume declined further, by 15% to the equivalent of only 17,212 Comex lots. There was no sign of BOJ action against the yen, which firmed, and of course NY provided no gold leadership yesterday. The active contract fell 11 yen, and open interest fell the equivalent of 1,154 Comex lots. $US gold did firm, by 95c above the NY close. Over the past few days the Trade house short on TOCOM has been rising by a few hundred Comex contracts a day. The reciprocal is frequently thought of as the "General Public", so there may be some small accumulation going on. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 43,000 contracts.)

Obviously all commentaries have been outdated by the response this morning in NY to the Employment numbers. Currently, the reflexive response to sell gold off as the dollar surges has been rejected on heavy volume (20,000 estimated contracts by 10 am). The stance of India, the world`s largest single consumer, presumably plays a part in this.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW gave up more than half its gains by the close, finishing at 9572, up 85. The DOG roared ahead ri 1880, up 44. The mania continues.

More on the employment news. Behind the headline number, the news was not good at all:

Average hourly earnings fell by 1 cent, to $15.45. This is the first time that nominal earnings fell since 1989.

The benchmark revision for March 2003 was announced. The level of employment is expected to be revised down by 145,000, or one tenth of a percent.
-END-

More from Jessie on the employment report:

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

From Table A-1, Employment Situation of the Population by Sex and Age

The comparison is between August 2003 and September 2003

The non-adjusted numbers show that the number of employed declined from 138,137,000 to 137,731,000. This is a net loss of 406,000 jobs non seasonally adjusted.

Interestingly enough, the number of unemployed also declined from 8,830,000 to 8,436,000. This is a net loss of 394,000 of the unemployed. Good news huh? A drop in unemployment to 5.8%!

The ratio of the employed to the total population of the US has dropped again, from 62.4 to 62.1 (63 in Sept 2002).

The bottom line is that as workers benefits run out, the Bush administration stops counting them.

But take a look over at the `seasonally adjusted` number which is where the number ought to have come from, right?

The number of employed DROPPED from 137,625,000 to137,573,000 for a net loss of 52,000 jobs seasonally adjusted by their own numbers.

So how do they come up with an increase???

Let`s take a look at their actual release.

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

In Table A. under Civilian Labor Force, Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, we do indeed see a running decline from August through September of 137,625 to 137,573 for a net loss of 52 (in thousands).

The `good news` of today comes in the next area of the table under "Establishment" with the heading "Non Farm Employment."

Here we show the `good news` gain from the employed from 129,805 to 129,862 for a net gain of 57 (in thousands). All the numbers are marked with a (p) meaning preliminary as in subject to revision. Nine out of ten americans will notice, by the way, that the total number of nonfarm employed was 129,862, which is considerably less than the total of 137,573,000, which means that we now have 7,711,000 farmers in this country. Or just more unaccounted for unemployed.

If you look at the breakdown, you will see that all the gain offsetting losses came from "Service Providing" with a gain of 74,000. Indeed the text of the release says:

"Professional and business services added 66,000 jobs in Sep…

The bottom line is that a preliminary estimate, which assumes we are becoming consultants or temps when we lose work, was the headline number, and the `real number` was a loss somewhere between 406,000 and 52,000 depending on how much of a seasonal adjustment you allow. Since a large number of college age kids are returning to school, I would accept the 52,000 number as a reasonable estimate.

However, the most realistic approach is to look at the trends, and ignore these shockingly bad estimates from Elaine Cho and her Administration cronies, similar to the $15 billion in PC sales that the Administration marked up to $133 billion because they were "faster".

-END-

Thanks Jeesie – well done.

Bill King notes:

"AMG reports money market funds had a record outflow of $48.B for the weekend ended 10/1. That implies M2 and M3 will be down sharply next week. Also, equity outflows of $2.2B were the largest since March. Sounds like consumers are paying bills after the tax rebate."

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added another $2 Billion in repos today Oct 3, 2003. This action kept the repurchase agreement pool of available funds right on its up-slope 30-day moving average [even though the pool fell back to $24.99B].

The chart reveals that the DOW has regained its 30-day moving upwards moving average as a result of the recent massive Fed repo interventions. One should appreciate the Herculean efforts required of the Fed`s "Desk" to move the DOW only a few hundred points.

The currency market remain volatile and anything could happen.

Mike

Chuck checked in during the day:

Every time you think that the groundhog day scenario has played out, another day just like the previous ones comes. No exception today. The irrelevant past information causes the Pavlovian response-buy stocks get out of golds on the opening. Silver down sharply AGAIN on a Friday. I haven`t kept track, but I would guess that over the past three months the aggregate losses on silver on a Friday was almost $1.00. To me Friday is the most irrelevant day of the week, and notice that is almost never a down Friday for the market and a particularly good day for gold.

You can tell I am frustrated by it, but I have felt that after the holiday week, we should have the "real" market surface. Let`s stay the course. Later. Chuck

From The Café’s man on the gold options floor:

I feel a bit relieved after this wash out, having predicted it a bit too early.....Any rally from here will probably be smashed and some more stops to get elected....then when everyone thinks the rally is over and options premiums are back closer to earth, then the rally will resume....-END-

From Haggis in Aussie Land:

I now appears that the US$ Index of 92 is a line that MUST be supported, and thus the Gold price was scarified to protect this today.

Where to from here?

There is an old saying in Scotland that “ye can buy it on the never never”, so it appears we, in the West, are all living in “never never land”, where there are no debts and every thing can be bought on credit … and with low interest, you don’t have to “pay” it back..

Gold will “Go”, it is a question of when. The “System” in the USA must now be totally corrupt, and that goes from the top down. The Asians will by more “cheap” Gold and there will by additional pressure to off load the US$.

At US$368, the Gold price is now lies above its medium term support trend line, with it long term support at US$360. However, it is not so much the Gold price that is now at centre stage, it is the US$ and the US Treasuries.. WE are now at the start of a second stage in the Markets, whereby “gravity” will slowly pull everything down.

So, the correction in the Gold price marks a watershed, and like all watersheds it will be downhill from here. My “bet” is that it will not be in Gold.

Och aye
Haggis

This says it all about today from a fellow Cafe member:

Bill:

I`m sure you`ve received plenty of opinion on today`s action so I`ll spare you my comments about gold and silver and provide a few other musings, to wit

1. During today`s various market manipulations oil quietly climbed above $30. The entire energy group moved higher. Anyone notice?

2. I heard a commentator on Bloomberg state that the "recovery" is now indisputable and that the market`s reaction is therefore appropriate. People may have differences of opinion on things, but you can`t dispute the data, says he. CAN`T DISPUTE THE DATA ??? We`ve just been through corporate scandel after corporate scandal, with the top name accounting firms having certified books that were cooked and we`re being told you can`t dispute the data? Enron,,,Tyco...Worldcom. Wouldn`t it have been a good idea to dispute the data they fed us? Oh I see...this data comes from a US federal agency so its beyond reproach. Well, I`ve got news for this guy and all of these bubble artists such as CNBC`s Kudlow, US economic data is so flawed and spun that its become virtually useless. The government has the leeway and motive to to produce false statistics and then "revise" them later. The United States rarely tells the truth anymore. Our most recent Secretary of the Treasury basically said so.

3. The very notion of the administration suggesting that we need to spend over half a billion dollars in an effort to look for WPD in Iraq is so laughably pathetic on so many fronts that this itself ought to have sent the Dow down 100 points today. The cost of our out-of-control foreign fiascos are going to hit the markets over the head at some point. I`ve been on this planet about a half a century and I remember the cold war quite well including the air raid drills as a child in school. And you know what? We didn`t "win" the cold war. In fact to a large degree what we`re facing today is the Truman Doctrine coming home to roost. So here we are supposedly having won the cold war and now "winning" the war in Afghanastan and Iraq. So I say...give me back the cold war. I felt safer. We didn`t "win" anything then and we aren`t "winning" anything now.

Does all of this tie in to the gold and silver manipulation? You know the answer.

Best,
Jeff

The gold shares were hit hard as would be expected. The HUI fell 9.46 to 189.37 and the XAU dropped 4.27 to 88.63.

While today’s bashing was no fun, it changes nothing. THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime is still in play. For investors looking to jump on board, you have a gift.

That’s it folks. Late to a dinner.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT! and WE ARE GOING TO WIN IT!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/02/markets/consumerbubble/index…

Markets & Stocks

Spending our way to disaster

The consumer debt bubble in the United States could make the…

October 3, 2003: 10:32 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The American consumer has become deeply addicted to spending, running up ever higher levels of debt in order to live in a fashion that is beyond his means. And the world has become equally addicted to the consumer continuing to burn through cash.

It`s a dangerous situation -- potentially a bubble that dwarfs even the U.S. asset bubble that burst in 2000 -- and it will be a challenge for policy-makers to keep it from ending badly.



The perseverance of consumer spending over the past several years is credited with keeping the economy afloat, but it didn`t come without consequence. In order to keep on living in the manner they became accustomed to during the boom years, Americans went deeply into hock.

"If there`s a bubble, it`s in this four-letter word: Debt," …

Indeed, consumer credit and mortgage debt are both a higher percentage of disposable income now than they`ve ever been before. Nor do these rises in debt levels appear justified by the rise in the value of people`s homes -- household debt as a percentage of household assets (what you owe versus what you`re worth) has also never been so high, according to the Federal Reserve.

How did this come to pass? We live in an economy that has become deeply dependent on the American consumer for growth. U.S. consumer spending accounts for around 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. So nobody wants to see the consumer falter, and they have been doing their darndest to make sure that doesn`t happen.



The Federal Reserve has cut rates like never before, allowing mortgage rates to come down this year to their lowest recorded levels. Car companies have offered zero percent financing for two years now, and they`ve recently begun offering it on 2004 vehicles.

But rather than using such rate reductions as an opportunity to save money, consumers have, as a whole, used them as an opportunity to spend more.

"We`re a what`s-my-monthly-payment nation," said Northern Tr…



Financial companies have got into the act, too, offering people ever-more efficient ways of running up debt. Hardly does a week go by without a new credit card offer coming in the mail.

Or consider credit cards like Wells Fargo`s NowLine Visa Platinum, which allows you easy access to a home equity line of credit. You can use it, says Wells in its online promotion, to help pay "for everyday expenses, like gas, groceries, clothes, etc."

Eating your house was never so easy.

Codependency, anyone?

Other countries share in the deep commitment to keep U.S. consumers laying out their cash. Big exporters -- Japan and China in particular -- have strived to keep their currencies low against the dollar, allowing Americans, in effect, to buy more of their stuff. U.S. consumer spending accounts for around 20 percent of world gross domestic product.

But here is another situation where the United States is spe…



So the world economy is leveraged to the U.S. consumer. And the U.S. consumer is leveraged to the hilt. There are now more registered cars on the road in the United States than there are licensed drivers. America`s energy needs, per capita, are nearly twice that of Great Britain`s. At some point the U.S. consumer`s creditors -- which is to say the rest of the world -- may have second thoughts about how their money is being used. Kasriel compares it to a corporation that uses its stock and bond proceeds to throw big parties, rather than invest them in its future.

Clearly something has to give.

"Nobody can pinpoint when this process will come to an end,"…

There are signs that U.S. policy-makers are at least partially trying to address the problem, pressing Japan, China and other Asian exporters to let their currencies strengthen against the dollar. This would, they believe, reduce consumer expenditures on imported goods and fuel export growth as well.

But it might not solve the problem of consumers who are continuing, in effect, to eat their seed corn. It would take a powerful disincentive, like a Fed rate hike, to get people to stop spending and start paying down debt and save more. But to do that would be to court the forces of recession.

"I don`t know if there`s an easy way out."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"We have a Fed that wants a booming economy, but the only way the consumer can continue to fuel the economy is through continued debt accumulation," said Rosenberg. "I don`t know if there`s an easy way out."

http://cgi.money.cnn.com/servlets/Redirects?magpromo/story/s…

[Wasserzeichen]

Nettes Gedicht,geklaut aus dem Kitco-Forum:

IS EVERYONE OK ?
Today I lost a little
But really not a lot
The Fed attack came out
That really hit the spot
The names of Stanley & Morgan
Chased around this historic day
They stole from the people`s Fort Knox
and made all Americans pay

IS EVERYONE OK ?

A golden light will shine
To remember today`s reflection
We must address the evil
and prevent Bush`s re-election
The world will help us win
They are sick of the dollars play
The crooks go out on stretchers
That`s all I have to say

IS EVERYONE OK ?

[Fritzfratz]

ThaiGuru,guten Abend auch
ich glaub ich muss mein Englisch aufbessern...

Sag mal,kennst doch sicher Thaigoldaktien?Hast Du da eine Meinung dazu?
Wuerde mich wirklich interessieren,da ich dabei bin mein Goldanteil(leider auch am Fr. )aufzustocken.
Halt auch in Thailand.Gibts da was Gescheites?
Ich danke Dir fuer Deine Muehe
Bin in:
Wheaton
Durban R.
Goldfield
Royal Gold ueberleg ich noch.
Physisch kann man in Thailand Thaigold kaufen,ist aber eben nur 23,nitnoi Karat.Kann man auch nur hier verkaufen.
24`Gold kann man zwar auch bestellen,aber eben nur im Land gegen Bath verkaufen.Oder rausschmuggeln.Da haengen die Hosentaschen
Was meinst Du?
Fritz the Fratz

[ThaiGuru]

@Fritzfratz

Die einzige am SET gehandelte Aktie, die über eine fast 100%ige Tochterfirma ein Gold Projekt betreibt, das nach Angaben der Mutterfirma im nächsten Jahr in Produktion gehen wird, heist TONGKAH HARBOUR (Thailand:THL.BK).
Die THL wurde hier am 21. Mai 2003 im Thread von mir bei einem Preis von 1.51 THB mit strong buy zum Kauf empfohlen. Schlusskurs am letzten Freitag war 5.40 THB.
Die THL hatte vor kurzer Zeit ein Zwischenhoch von 7.40 THB erreicht, und in den letzten Wochen konsolidiert.

Preise unter 5.- THB zu Zukäufen nutzen!

Preisziel per März 2004: 10.- bis 12.- THB (Falls THL den Produktionbeginn realisiert, und bei einem Goldpreis von ca. 380.-/400.- Dollar pro Unze!)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=s&s=THL.BK



Thai-Gold, 96.5%iges Gold, gekauft in Thailand, in Barren, oder Schmuck, kann in jeder Menge, 1. anonym gekauft/verkauft werden, und ist ebenso unbegrenzt ohne fiskalische Belastungen legal aus Thailand ein-, und ausführbar. (Bei Einfuhr deklarieren!) Deine Befürchtung dass man Thai Gold rausschmuggeln müsste, ist glücklicherweise nicht richtig.

Tips zu Thai Aktien kannst Du in meinem Thread im Asien Board finden. Nur "leider" sind meine dortigen Empfehlungen alle schon massiv angestiegen, sodass heute ein grösseres Risiko besteht noch einzusteige, und ein Grossteil des Steigerungspotenzials bereits erreicht wurde. Werde nächste Woche ein Update machen, und zwei neue Thai Titel vorstellen.

Thread: Kein Titel für Thread 22511662227192916500271929765384707372813776946

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Nachtrag: Die bei Yahoo Finanz angegebenen Umsätze für die THL stimmen nicht! In Wirklichkeit sind die Umsätze gewaltig viel höher.

Die richtigen Umsätze gibt`s hier: Kürzel THL eingeben!

http://www.set.or.th/static/market/market_u2.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id…

ECONOMY

After 41 Years, Bullion Futures Trading Kicks Off

OUR ECONOMIC BUREAU

NEW DELHI, OCT 3: Food and consumer affairs minister Sharad Yadav has inaugurated the the online futures trading in gold and silver by the Ahmedabad-based National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (NMCE). The move will help streamline the Rs 40,000-crore domestic jewellery market.

Futures trading will be done through seven delivery centres located in Chennai, Kolkata, Mumbai, New Delhi, Ahmedabad, Indore and Kochi with the help of tie-ups with major international banks and logistic companies like Brinks Arya and Group IV Securities.

Futures trading in gold was earlier carried out by the Bomba…

Inaugurating the futures trading here on Friday, Yadav said the consumers will now on have the benefit of price discovery through futures trading and also the jewellers, exporters and banks engaged in bullion trade can benefit from hedging against the risk of price fluctuations.

He said internationally futures trading in gold and silver are being done on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and the Istanbul Gold Exchange of Turkey, but with the NMCE taking up futures trading the domestic consumers will be largely benefited and gradually India will be joining the ranks of countries conducting futures trading in bullion.

Yadav said India has re-started futures trading in gold and …

NMCE’s unit of trade and delivery is a 100gm bar of .999 fineness gold. This small contract size is expected to attract large number of small and medium investors for whom gold is already an integral part of their portfolio, albeit in an unorganised manner. Thus, gold futures has enormous scope here. He also said for the benefit of consumers the government is planning to make hallmarking of gold jewellery mandatory.

Yadav said the country consumes 800 tonne gold annually and …

Though some domestic players hedge their positions on global exchanges, a large number of them do so through illegal routes. Informed sources say, on any given day, the domestic bullion traders and speculators hedge and speculate in gold futures to the extent of around Rs 1,000 crore. The size of the domestic gold jewellery market is over Rs 40,000 crore.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/NationalInvestor/1065207141.php



Friday`s Action: A Tactical Warhead Fired At Gold Bugs

By: Christopher Temple, The National Investor

For the second time in eight days, a gold market that stubbornly refused to follow a certain script was suddenly undermined today by sudden, heavy and organized selling pressure. At the close of trading in New York, the cash contract settled out at a level of $368.70 per ounce, down by nearly $14.00 per ounce for the day.

The explanation given for the yellow metal’s sudden swoon by…

Though Wall Street stock prices spiked higher with the opening bell this morning, gold was actually higher itself for a spell, hitting an intra-day peak of $386.70 per ounce and holding most of its modest gains for better than two hours after trading started. Clearly, gold traders were keeping their eyes on the “big picture” of a U.S. dollar in a secular decline and an economy inherently weaker than the shills on financial television claim. Or, maybe, most of them simply showed up to work at the COMEX a few hours late. I’ll let you decide.

Whatever the case, late morning trading saw a sudden drop in gold that quickly began to feed on itself. According to some floor traders, a break below the $380.00 per ounce level triggered both stop loss selling by hedge funds and similar sorts, as well as some new attempts by short sellers to shake out some bulls. The metal in scarcely an hour’s time dropped almost uninterrupted, making a weak stand in the closing moments as gold tried to hold near its 50 day moving average around the $370.00 per ounce level.

As I wrote in a September 25 commentary (“From Hand-to-Hand Combat, to Financial Thermonuclear War,”) such volatility by itself is neither unusual nor unwelcome. While I’m sure gold bulls would like to see their favorite asset rise every day, a healthy and (long term) sustainable market won’t behave in this fashion. Days like today shake gold and gold stock positions out of the weakest hands, and can set the stage for eventual attempts to make new highs.

Just as last Thursday, though, the timing and nature of today’s selling strongly suggests that gold had received a “push” of sorts. Had gold dropped at the outset today, such a possibility could probably be dismissed; after all, that would have been expected. Since the metal held onto gains for fully half of its trading day, though, we must consider the alternative.

As I mentioned last week, an epic battle is at hand now as gold has pounded on the door of new bull market highs. Recent days have also seen a pivotal juncture for the value of the U.S. dollar, which in the last two days in particular has seen its level drop back to its 2003 lows plumbed in June. Both trends have been both desired and encouraged by monetary authorities. Both, however, have recently threatened to get out of hand, something which could quickly prove destabilizing to stock and bond markets.

To slow down the dollar’s decline against the yen, Japanese authorities have been intervening massively in the currency markets. After all, were the dollar to decisively break below its 2003 lows here (a level of a bit over 92 on the U.S. Dollar Index) a cascade of technical selling—if not a full-fledged panic—would likely ensue. Such was the concern of this very thing happening this week that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York felt the need to assist Japanese officials in their intervention.

Similarly, a breakout to new highs for gold could easily und…

For more information and to subscribe, visit http://www.nationalinvestor.com.

[kerwin]

Goldene Zeiten

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/0,1518,268366,00.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/10/05/178258.html

Ausgabe vom Sonntag, den 05.10.2003

"Auf Pump geht mit mir nichts" - Roland Koch im Interview

Auszug:

Ich bin niemand, der sagt, man darf nie Schulden aufnehmen. …

[ThaiGuru]

Zwischendurch schreibt er ja auch mal was gescheites der Bernd Niquet. Nur das Gold steckt bei ihm noch verkehrt im Hals. Doch über Gold schreibt er ja heute glücklicherweise nichts.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.wams.de/data/2003/10/05/178097.html

Ausgabe vom Sonntag, den 05.10.2003

Große Konfusion ums Geld

Sonntagsbörse
von Bernd Niquet

Weltweit steigen die Geldmengen in Rekordgeschwindigkeit - und trotzdem kommt die Wirtschaft nicht in Schwung. Und von Inflation ist weit und breit nichts zu sehen. Wenn wir einmal von den staatlichen Monopolpreisen absehen. Wie ist das zu erklären? Die einen reden von einer zeitlichen Verzögerung, da die Geldmenge erst einmal bestimmte "Kanäle" durchlaufen müsse, bis sie ihre Wirkungen entfalten kann. Beachtet man, dass die Geldmengen bereits seit Jahren nach oben schießen, müssen das wirklich lange Kanäle sein, die mindestens bis ans Ende der Welt und zurück laufen. Die anderen hingegen sagen, die in den Statistiken erscheinenden Geldmengen seien völlig unwichtig. Wichtig seien nur die umlaufenden Geldmengen. Das ist natürlich ein ebenso bequemes Argument, denn da die "umlaufende Geldmenge" sich der Messung entzieht, kann man mit ihnen letztlich alles erklären. Doch etwas, das alles erklärt, erklärt letztlich überhaupt nichts.

Der wirkliche Grund für die Nicht-Übereinstimmung von Geldmengen- und Preis- sowie Wirtschaftsentwicklung liegt deshalb auch viel tiefer. Man muss dazu verstehen, dass der behauptete Zusammenhang, nach dem Geldmengensteigerungen entweder zu einem Anspringen der Wirtschaft oder aber zu einer Steigerung der Inflation führen, der Lehrsatz einer mittlerweile als falsifiziert zu betrachtenden Theorie ist. Es ist dies die Lehre des Monetarismus, die heute theoretisch und empirisch als Irrlehre entlarvt ist.

Als die Menschen wussten, dass die Erde keine Scheibe, sondern eine Kugel ist, wurde ein Erkenntnisgewinn erzielt. Beim Geld ist es viel schwieriger. Hier wissen wir zwar mittlerweile, dass es - im übertragenen Sinne - keine Scheibe ist. Doch kaum jemand hat eine Vorstellung, was es anstelle dessen sein könnte. Aus diesem Grunde bleibt die Mehrheit von uns rat- und bewegungslos im Netz der alten und falschen Theorie gefangen.


Artikel erschienen am 5. Okt 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn uns heute gesagt wird die Wirtschaft würde sich bald erholen, und es würde bald wieder aufwärtsgehen mit unserer Wirtschaft, muss das nicht unbedingt stimmen. Es könnte auch ganz anders kommen. Man hat uns auch gesagt Nettokreditaufnahme für 2003 würde (unverantwortlich) hohe 18,9 Milliarden Euro betragen. Ein Betrag der gegen die Maastricher Vereinbarung verstösst.

Doch plötzlich stellt es sich heraus, dass die zusätzliche N…

Gold Bugs, es wird höhchste Zeit um sich noch etwas mehr zusätzliches physisches Gold, und Silber zu kaufen! Kein Papiergold, oder Derivative auf`s Gold/Silber!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/0,1518,268358,00.html



HAUSHALT

Eichel macht Rekordschulden

Der Bund wird in diesem Jahr so viel Schulden machen wie noch niemals zuvor in der Geschichte der Republik. Die Nettokreditaufnahme für 2003 klettert auf rund 41 Milliarden Euro statt der vorgesehenen 18,9 Milliarden Euro.



Berlin - Den Beschluss wird die Bundesregierung unter Kanzler Gerhard Schröder am 15. Oktober fassen. Dann steht der Nachtragshaushalt für das laufende Jahr im Kabinett zur Abstimmung. Er wird ein Volumen von rund 23 Milliarden Euro haben. So viel fehlt Finanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD), weil wegen der schleppenden Konjunkturentwicklung Steuereinnahmen ausbleiben und deutlich höhere Ausgaben für die gestiegene Arbeitslosigkeit anfallen.
Die bislang höchste Neuverschuldung des Bundes fiel 1996 an. Damals musste Finanzminister Theo Waigel umgerechnet 40 Milliarden Euro an neuen Krediten aufnehmen.

Doch auch die Länder müssen in diesem Jahr viel mehr Schulden machen als eingeplant. Bis Ende August, so neueste Berechnungen der Länderfinanzministerien, haben sie ihren Kreditrahmen bereits deutlich überschritten. Ihre Neuverschuldung betrug Ende August 27,8 Milliarden Euro.

Eingeplant war für das Gesamtjahr aber nur ein Defizit der L…

[valueinvestor]

Die Chuzpe von Koch muß man erst mal haben - unter den Bundesländern hat Hessen in den Jahren seiner Regierung den absolut höchsten Schuldenanstieg hingelegt und jetzt macht er einen auf sparsam.

[Fandrich]

Der Spiegel online
06. Oktober 2003

Goldene Zeiten

Die Krise an den Finanzmärkten, aggressive Spekulanten und ein Quäntchen Irrationalität sorgten für einen steilen Anstieg des Goldpreises, der gerade ein Sieben-Jahres-Hoch erklomm. Nun will auch die Bundesbank einen Teil ihres Milliarden-Schatzes zu Geld machen.


DER SPIEGEL

Goldrausch im 21. Jahrhundert?


Auf den lederbezogenen Tischen stehen britische Fähnchen. An den holzvertäfelten Wänden hängen Porträts von Preußenkönig Wilhelm II., Österreichs Kaiser Franz Josef I. und weiteren europäischen Herrschern des 19. Jahrhunderts. Das Tageslicht tritt nur zögerlich über die Schwelle dieses altehrwürdigen Raums im Londoner Bankhaus Rothschild.
Doch zweimal am Tag, um 10.30 und um 13 Uhr, wird es plötzlich für ein paar Minuten hektisch. Fünf Händler verhandeln dann in einem seit 1919 unveränderten Ritual stellvertretend für den Rest der Welt über den Goldpreis. Erst wenn alle fünf die vor ihnen stehenden Wimpelchen umkippen, ist der global gültige Preis für das glänzende Edelmetall gefunden.

Als einziges Zugeständnis an die Moderne sind die Vertreter von fünf Banken mittlerweile per Telefon mit mehreren Handelsräumen in der Welt verbunden, bei denen Minengesellschaften, Goldraffinerien, Spekulanten und Zentralbanken ihre Preisvorstellungen kundtun. Kriege, Bombenattentate oder auch nur ein heftiger Herbststurm über Europa reichen aus, den Goldpreis nach oben oder unten zu treiben.

In den vergangenen Wochen ging es fast ausnahmslos steil aufwärts. Am 25. September erreichte die archaische Londoner Runde ein neues Sieben-Jahres-Hoch von 389 Dollar je Feinunze.

Während die Aktienmärkte weltweit taumelten und sogar Immobilien vielerorts real an Wert verloren, erlebte das glitzernde Edelmetall eine unerwartete Renaissance. Was der Ökonom John Maynard Keynes einst als "ein barbarisches Relikt" bezeichnete, gilt wieder als moderne Geldanlage, um sich vor unsicheren Zeiten zu schützen. "Die Nachfrage nach unseren Goldprodukten in diesem Sommer war dreimal so hoch wie im vergangenen Jahr", sagt Michael Blumenroth, der oberste Goldhändler der Deutschen Bank in Frankfurt am Main.

Spekulanten wetten auf den künftigen Goldpreis. Vermögensverwalter versuchen, mit ein paar Unzen Gold die Portfolios ihrer Kunden gegen die Unwägbarkeiten der Zeit abzuschirmen. Das größte Rad aber drehen mal wieder die Hedgefonds. Sie haben sich seit Sommer an der New Yorker Terminbörse Comex Options- und Terminkontrakte im Gegenwert von zurzeit 10,8 Millionen Unzen gesichert. Ein Achtel der Weltjahresproduktion des Edelmetalls ist damit in Händen von Zockern, die auf noch höhere Kurse setzen. Vor zwei Wochen ist mit 11,1 Millionen Kontrakten ein neuer historischer Höchststand verzeichnet worden, berichten Insider.

Jetzt sind es immer mehr die Privatanleger, die an neue goldene Zeiten glauben - angetrieben auch durch Konferenzen wie die "Gold 2003": In Vancouver debattierten Experten aus aller Welt vorige Woche, wo das Edelmetall in Zukunft besonders nützlich - und damit noch wertvoller werden könnte: in Schaltelementen von Computern, in der Medizintechnik, beim Bau neuartiger Katalysatoren.

Jede Schweizer Privatbank habe mittlerweile wieder ein Goldzertifikat aufgelegt, berichtet ein Londoner Investmentbanker. Diese Zertifikate verbriefen den Besitz des Zehntels einer Feinunze und erfordern keine großen Fächer im Banktresor. Aber auch die Nachfrage nach den schweren Barren und Münzen verdoppelte sich im vergangenen Jahr auf einen Wert von über vier Milliarden Dollar.

Der Klimawandel rund um das tief schürfende Goldgewerbe ist enorm: Vor kurzem noch holte die Erbengeneration die in den siebziger Jahren populären Krügerrand-Münzen aus den Tresoren ihrer Tanten, um in Aktien des Neuen Markts zu investieren. Jetzt hat sich herumgesprochen, dass auf Goldminen spezialisierte Investmentfonds manche Hitlisten anführen. Während viele Aktienfonds über die Hälfte ihres Werts verloren, verdoppelte sich der Kurs der Goldfonds in den vergangenen drei Jahren.

Zuerst war es die Angst vor Krieg und Terror, die den Preis nach oben trieb. Im Frühjahr geisterte das Schreckgespenst der Deflation durch die Handelsräume. Neuerdings ist es die Inflationsangst, die als Erklärung für die Heavy-Metal-Mode herhalten muss.

US-Präsident George W. Bush will im nächsten Jahr wiedergewählt werden und hat mit Notenbankpräsident Alan Greenspan die Geldschleusen aufgerissen. Das amerikanische Haushaltsdefizit von 455 Milliarden Dollar für 2003 und prognostizierten 475 Milliarden Dollar im nächsten Jahr war noch nie so hoch. Deshalb fürchten viele Experten in naher Zukunft höhere Inflationsraten. Eine höhere Geldentwertung gehört zu den probatesten Mitteln der Entschuldung.

Gleichzeitig könnte der Dollarkurs weiter fallen, weil das Zahlungsbilanzdefizit der Amerikaner anschwillt. Auch das hilft dem Goldpreis. Denn die großen Goldproduzenten in Südafrika oder Australien rechnen in einheimischen Währungen, die gegenüber dem Dollar aufgewertet haben. Deshalb ist es für sie weniger attraktiv, die Produktion auszuweiten.

Sollte der mit viel billigem Geld aufgeblasene Ballon platzen, so argumentieren Hedgefonds-Manager, aber auch konservative Vermögensverwalter wie der Schweizer Armin Hurtz, gehören Anlagen in Gold noch zu den sichersten Investments. "Gold und Goldminen-Aktien treten nun in Phase zwei des historischen Bullenmarkts ein", glaubt Hurtz. Und gute Nachrichten, dass der seit Anfang 2002 um rund 40 Prozent gestiegene Goldpreis weiter anschwellen wird, entdecken die Fürsprecher überall.

"In China steigt die Nachfrage, seit vor einem Jahr in Shanghai die erste Goldbörse aufmachen durfte", berichtet Vermögensverwalter Hurtz und rät seinen Kunden zum Kauf. Gern wird auch die Geschichte erzählt, dass islamische Staaten unter der Führung von Malaysia den Golddinar als goldgedeckte Währung einführen wollen. Hurtz hat ausgerechnet, dass dafür 300 bis 800 Tonnen Gold im Jahr notwendig wären. Wie realistisch der Plan der islamischen Staaten ist, vom US-Dollar als Reservewährung unabhängiger zu werden, bleibt zwar unklar. Aber von Gerüchten und unruhigen Zeiten profitierte der Goldpreis schon immer.

Im Auftrag der Engländer kaufte das Bankhaus Rothschild 1815 alles Gold auf dem europäischen Kontinent auf, dessen es habhaft werden konnte. Damit wurden die Truppen des britischen Generals Wellington finanziert, die Napoleon bei Waterloo vernichtend schlugen. Die vom Finanzministerium Seiner Majestät quittierte Goldrechnung liegt in einer Vitrine vor der schweren Tür, die zum Handelsraum der Londoner Preiswächter führt.

Trotz der reichen Erfahrungen wagt der heutige Baron Evelyn de Rothschild keine Vorhersagen, wie sich der Goldpreis entwickeln wird. Nur zwei Menschen, ein Gehilfe bei der Banque de France und ein Direktor der Bank of England, könnten den wahren Wert des Goldes beurteilen, sagte er einmal. "Nur leider sind sie sich nicht einig", meinte er ironisch.

Die amerikanische Investmentbank Goldman Sachs, einer der größten Akteure am Markt, weigert sich, Analysen über die Entwicklung des Goldpreises zu veröffentlichen. "Angebot und Nachfrage entwickeln sich völlig irrational", sagt einer ihrer Experten zur Begründung. Trotzdem lassen sich - jenseits des Herdentriebs - für die Renaissance des Goldes weitere Gründe finden, die bis in die neunziger Jahre zurückreichen.

Als damals der Preis des Edelmetalls immer weiter fiel, gingen insbesondere die großen Minengesellschaften in Südafrika und Australien dazu über, ihre künftige Produktion zu einem vorher festgelegten Preis zu verkaufen.

Anglogold, der damals größte Produzent der Welt, verkaufte mit solchen Absicherungsgeschäften vorab fast 13 Millionen Unzen, mehr als zwei Jahresproduktionen, noch bevor die 55 000 Minenarbeiter sie aus der Erde befördert hatten. "Die Minen haben sich damit selbst die Preise kaputtgemacht", sagt Deutschbanker Blumenroth.

Doch im vergangenen Jahr drehte sich der Trend. Weil die Minen im Gefolge der Attentate vom 11. September 2001 auf steigende Kurse setzten, kauften sie auf den Terminmärkten massiv ihre in die Zukunft gerichteten Lieferverpflichtungen zurück. Zwischen September 2001 und Dezember 2002 reduzierten die 98 Goldproduzenten ihre Lieferverpflichtungen um 466 Tonnen, hat eine von Rothschild finanzierte Studie herausgefunden.

Damit stieg der Preis für künftige Kontrakte stark an, was wiederum die Tageskurse in London nach oben drückte. Gleichzeitig vervielfachte sich der Wert von Minengesellschaften wie der US-Firma Newmont, die kaum Lieferverpflichtungen zu festen Preisen eingegangen waren und damit direkt vom Preisanstieg profitierten. Dank des höheren Börsenkurses konnte Newmont Anglogold ausstechen, als es darum ging, mit Normandy eine der großen australischen Minengesellschaften zu übernehmen.

Kaum waren die Amerikaner zum Zug gekommen, kauften sie die Hälfte aller künftigen Lieferverpflichtungen ihrer australischen Neuerwerbung am Markt zurück. Auch Anglogold änderte seine Politik und kassierte Kontrakte im Wert von 4,1 Millionen Unzen ein.

Gleichzeitig traten still und heimlich die großen Spekulanten an. Die beiden amerikanischen Investment-Legenden George Soros und Warren Buffet sollen massiv auf den Edelmetallmärkten engagiert sein. Belegbar ist, dass Buffet mit seiner Fondsgesellschaft Berkshire Hathaway, allerdings schon vor sechs Jahren, massiv und nachhaltig in den Silbermarkt eingestiegen ist, der in jüngerer Vergangenheit ebenfalls von der Flucht in metallene Traditionswerte profitiert hat.

Schon 1980, als der Goldpreis kurzfristig auf atemraubende 680 Dollar stieg, ging die Hysterie von dem nicht ganz so edlen Silber aus. Nelson Bunker Hunt aus Texas und seine Brüder hatten damals massiv den Silberpreis nach oben manipuliert, indem sie einfach alles aufkauften, was auf den Markt kam.

Das wird beim Gold wohl kaum passieren. In den Kellern der Zentralbanken lagern noch aus den Zeiten, als das Gold zur Absicherung der Währungen diente, mehr als 30 000 Tonnen Gold. Allein die 3443 Tonnen, die von der Bundesbank in Frankfurt und in New York aufbewahrt werden, übersteigen die Jahresförderung aller Goldminen weltweit.

Diese gewaltigen Reserven der Notenbanken überschatten auch den Markt. Zwischen 1999 und 2001 versteigerte der britische Finanzminister Gordon Brown gut 400 Tonnen, der Preis brach massiv ein. Die Schweizer Notenbank macht es geräuschloser: Sie verkauft seit Anfang Mai 2000 an jedem Handelstag etwa eine Tonne aus ihren üppigen Reserven.

Auch in Deutschland wächst die Begehrlichkeit, die Goldreserven zu heben. In schöner Regelmäßigkeit finden sich Politiker, die den Bundesschatz mit Bewertungsreserven von aktuell 28 Milliarden Euro heben wollen - natürlich für einen guten Zweck, die Konsolidierung der klammen Haushalte. Die Herzog-Kommission zur Reform der Sozialsysteme wollte ebenso an die Goldreserven wie ein Teil der SPD-Bundestagsfraktion.

Bundesbankpräsident Ernst Welteke sieht in der Veräußerung von Vermögen zur Finanzierung laufender Ausgaben "keinen sittlichen Mehrwert". Als ehemaliger Wirtschaftsminister des Landes Hessen weiß er, wie schnell solche einmaligen Zuschüsse verdampfen. Notfalls will er mit seinen Kollegen im Zentralbankrat verhindern, dass sich die Berliner Politiker allzu hastig in seinen Tresoren bedienen.

Doch auch Welteke plädiert dafür, den Schatz vorsichtig zu heben. "Wir wollen in Zukunft Gold in homöopathischen Dosen auf den Markt bringen", sagt er. Das sei auch Mehrheitsposition im Vorstand der Notenbank. Der Bundesbankpräsident will verzinsliche Anlagen kaufen, deren Erlöse dann an den Staat ausgeschüttet werden können. Immer wieder mahnte Welteke in Berlin eine entsprechende Novelle des Bundesbankgesetzes in Berlin an - bisher vergeblich.

1999 hatten sich 15 wichtige Notenbanken geeinigt, bis 2004 aus ihren Beständen jährlich nur maximal 400 Tonnen auf den Markt zu werfen. Im nächsten Frühjahr soll es ein neues Abkommen unter den Zentralbanken geben, damit der Goldpreis durch ein plötzliches Überangebot nicht abschmiert. Doch die Bundesbank wolle diesmal, ähnlich wie 1999 die Schweizer, "eine Verkaufsoption haben".

In Zeiten knapper öffentlicher Kassen ist durchaus denkbar, dass auch Franzosen und Amerikaner ihre hohen Reserven angreifen wollen, die unverzinst in den Tresoren schlummern. Sollte es zu einer Quotenschlacht unter den Notenbanken kommen, wären die Folgen für den Goldpreis unabsehbar, auch wenn solch düstere Prognosen wahre Goldfans nicht schrecken können.

"Fünf bis zehn Prozent eines Depots sollten in Gold investiert sein", sagt Stefan Schilbe, Chefvolkswirt von HSBC Trinkaus&Burkhardt. Der Schweizer Vermögensverwalter Hurtz rät seiner risikoscheuen Klientel seit neuestem, bis zu 15 Prozent des Vermögens in den metallenen Mythos zu investieren.

CHRISTOPH PAULY



http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/0,1518,268366,00.html

Gruß Fandrich

[Basic]

Das mit der Scheibe und der Kugel ist schon ein gutes Bild.
Dummer weise stehen für Geld zwei Begriffe.
- Tauschmittel
- Wertspeicher
Ähnlich wie im deutschen das Wort Himmel hat der Anglo zwei Begriiffe mit zwei unterschiedlichen Bedeutungen. Aber was solls tausendmal diskutiert.

Wer Falschgeld druckt trägt nichts aber auch nichts dazu bei, den Tauschmarkt zu beeinflussen. Es ist lediglich ein Zuwachs im Wertspeicher.

So lange das Tauschgeschäft funktioniert besteht kein Grund an den Wertspeicher ranzugehen!

Erst wenn die Wirtschaft den Berg runter geht, wird man feststellen, das der Speicher nichts mehr taugt, und das nennt man Inflation.

Die Welt ist dann wwohl doch eine Kugel

Gruß Basic

[Fandrich]

Interessante Linksammlung
zum Thema Gold

http://www.gold-pool.com/

[ThaiGuru]

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1707

From: "cxpowell" <GATAComm@a...>
Date: Sun Oct 5, 2003 1:38 pm
Subject: `Financial Sense Newshour` interviews Sprott`s Embry and Central Fund`s Spicer

9:29a ET Sunday, October 5, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Jim Puplava interviews John Embry, president of Sprott
Asset Management in Toronto and manager of Sprott`s
precious metals fund, and Stefan Spicer, CEO of Central
Fund of Canada, the gold and silver bullion fund, on
the latest edition of the "Financial Sense Newshour."

Embry endorses GATA`s finding about the gold market
and makes two points likely to be of special interest
to gold bugs:

-- Central banks may become more a positive than a
negative for the gold price, since not much central bank
gold is left in the vaults of the banks that have been
lending it, and Asian central banks are likely already
buying gold quietly to hedge their huge and growing
reserves of devaluing U.S. dollars.

-- Because of globalization, gold is unlikely to be
outlawed, and outlawing gold in the United States
probably would only spur demand for it elsewhere.

You can listen to the interview here:

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/100403.htm

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

----------------------------------------------------

To subscribe to GATA`s dispatches, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

To unsubscribe, send an e-mail to:

[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[konradi]

.

empfehlenswerte website:

http://www.newswire.ca/earnings/industry.html?CODE=MNG

.

[ThaiGuru]

@Konradi

Wirklich interessant Dein Link!

Kannte ich selbst bis jetzt noch nicht.

[ThaiGuru]

Gold



Silber



Dollar

[Tippgeber1]

@Fandrich

danke für Deinen Hinweis.
Leider kann ich die Seite
nicht unter Favoriten speichern...
schade...

Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Tippgeber1]

Prognosen.....

"Moneybee-Prognose: In die Flaute...

Von Till Mansmann

In die Flaute treiben die Boersen: Zwar sieht MoneyBee das derzeit schlechte Umfeld
kurzfristig, etwa bis Mitte kommender Woche, moeglicherweise etwas besser
werden, aber dann geht es auch schon wieder bergab. Und bis in zwei Wochen
sieht das System durch die Bank weg deutliche Verluste sowohl fuer den
deutschen als auch fuer den amerikanischen Markt. Am besten sieht es noch
fuer den Nasdaq aus: Hier weist der Prognosepfeil weitgehend seitwaerts.

Die Bewegungen der Maerkte dies- und jenseits des Atlantiks (vor allem Dax,
MDax, DowJones) wird dabei zwar als weitgehend parallelgerichtet beurteilt -
beim Blick in die Netze sieht man jedoch weiterhin, dass die direkte
Kopplung (wechselseitige Bedeutung als Input-Faktoren) derzeit als schwach
eingestuft wird. Dabei taucht der europaeische Markt in den Dow-Jones-Netzen
praktisch gar nicht auf (was nicht weiter verwunderlich ist), aber auch
umgekehrt liegt der Dow-Jones als Einfluss-Faktor europaeischer Indizes
ziemlich weit abgeschlagen. Ein deutlicher Hinweis auf eine spuerbare Unruhe
in den Maerkten."


Grüssels
Tippgeber

[Fritzfratz]

Guten Morgen aus Thailand!
Thai Guru,ich danke Dir fuer Dine Antwort.
THL ist bei mir auf der Liste,unter 5, Einstieg sehe ich auch so.
Woher weisst Du,das man Gold ausfuehren darf?
Devisen naemlich nicht.Sollte Thaksin da was vergessen haben?
Glaubst Du,wir sehen in naechster Zeit nochmal Goldkaufkurse von unter 350?
Das 5-Jahresabkommen und die Ankuendigung Goldreserven zu verkaufen,kann schon was dran sein.Wuerde 2004 einen grossen Knick nach unten bedeuten?
Bin auf Deine 2 naechsten Titel gespannt.
Fritz the Fratz und ein frohes schaffen

[bluemoons]

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Silver%20Arrows.htm

[Fritzfratz]

Jetzt weiss ich warum Du bluemoon heisst...
Mein Silver OS steht schon in den Startloechern...
Fritz the Fratz

[Tippgeber1]

Allgemeines amüsantes zur Börsenentwicklung....


„Bild Dir Deine Meinung“ ...

Von Andreas Hoose

"Kaum ist man einmal ein paar Tage ausser Landes, schon spielen die
Boersen verrueckt. Erst ging es tagelang abwaerts, am Freitag dann
sorgten positive Arbeitsmarktdaten aus den USA fuer kraeftige
Kursspruenge nach oben. Die rechte Orientierung scheinen die
Aktienmaerkte derzeit nicht zu finden.

Waehrend der juengsten Abwaertsspirale war es interessant zu
beobachten, wie den Daueroptimisten das Blut in den Adern zu
gefrieren schien. Kollegen, die noch vor wenigen Wochen im Brustton
der Ueberzeugung zum Einstieg geraten haben, warnten jetzt kleinlaut,
die Karten seien neu gemischt. Dabei hatte der Dax seinen
Aufwaertstrend gerade erst nach unten verlassen....

Vielleicht sollte man lieber auf uralte Kontraindikatoren
achten. „Die Baisse an den Aktienmaerkten ist vorueber“, so lautete
der Aufmacher des Handelsblattes noch vor wenigen Tagen. Der Dax
hatte da gerade sein bisheriges Jahreshoch erreicht. Und die von der
Fachzeitung befragten Bankanalysten gaben sich durchweg positiv.
Uebrigens hat auch die Bild-Zeitung, die schon im Fruehjahr 2000 als
exzellentes Warnsignal traurige Beruehmtheit erlangte, puenktlich zum
juengsten Hoechstkurs beim Dax mit einem Boersenspiel begonnen. Es
soll einen Porsche zu gewinnen geben. Wie lautete noch der
Werbespruch der cleveren Blattmacher? „Bild Dir Deine Meinung“. Dann
wollen wir das mal tun...

Das gleiche „Bild“ in den USA: Das Anlegermagazin Barron’s, stellte
kuerzlich fest, dass von zehn befragten Aktienstrategen in den
kommenden Monaten ausnahmslos alle weitere Kurssteigerungen von fuenf
bis zehn Prozent erwarten. Doch damit nicht genug: Die
Boersenaufsichtsbehoerde NASD warnte kuerzlich vor einer auffallenden
Zunahme der kreditfinanzierten Wertpapierkaeufe. Nicht einmal auf dem
Hoehepunkt der Aktieneuphorie im Fruehjahr 2000 seien an der Nasdaq
derart viele Aktien auf Pump gekauft worden. Ergaenzend muss man
allerdings hinzufuegen, dass zahlreiche Papiere an der
Technologieboerse erst kuerzlich wieder die Marke von 5,00 US-Dollar
uebersprungen haben und damit fuer Kreditkaeufe ueberhaupt wieder in
Frage kommen.

Aus antizyklischer Sicht sind die aktuellen Umfragen der Kollegen von
boerse_de derzeit sehr aufschlussreich: Fast 80 Prozent der befragten
Leser sind der Ansicht, dass der Dax nicht noch einmal unter die
Marke von 3000 Punkten fallen wird. Und die Frage, ob der japanische
Nikkei nach mehr als 20 Jahren Baisse jetzt wieder in Feier-Laune
ist, verneinen fast 90 Prozent.

Was leitet der Kontra-Stratege daraus ab? Beim Dax, wie auch in den
USA, sollte man bis auf weiteres Vorsicht walten lassen; ausserdem
duerfte es ratsam sein, japanische Aktien in Zukunft staerker zu
gewichten. Allerdings sollte man sich auch hier zunaechst
zurueckhalten. Der juengste Anstieg der Nippon-Papiere war des Guten
doch reichlich viel.

Dass sich ganz allgemein wieder Optimismus breit macht, bestaetigt
auch die Expertenanalyse der boerse_de-Redaktion: Waehrend der
vergangenen Woche gingen dort so viele Kaufempfehlungen ein wie noch
nie in diesem Jahr. Das Verhaeltnis von Kauf- zu Verkaufsempfehlungen
verbesserte sich deutlich zugunsten der positiven Analystenstimmen:
Von 3,37 auf einen neuen Jahreshoechststand von 4,16. Antizykliker
ahnen es: Wenn die Analystengilde geschlossen zum Einstieg blaest,
ist es an der Zeit ist, sich vorerst von den Maerkten zu
verabschieden.

Zu aehnlichen Schlussfolgerungen kommt man, beruecksichtigt man
juengste Marktanalysen von Merrill Lynch-Chefstratege Richard
Bernstein: Der Analyst stellt fest, dass die am meisten gehandelten
Aktien im S&P500 derzeit mit einem Aufschlag zum Gesamtmarkt in Hoehe
von 15 Prozent gehandelt werden. In der Vergangenheit war das
Verhalten der Anleger zu Beginn eines neuen Bullenmarktes jedoch
genau umgekehrt: Beim Start eines neuen Boersenaufschwungs waren die
am meisten gehandelten Aktien regelmaessig mit einem Abschlag zum
breiten Markt versehen.

Weiterhin, so Bernstein, wuerden die Boersianer derzeit Unternehmen
bevorzugen, bei denen Wachstum, Gewinne und Dividenden mit grossen
Unsicherheiten belastetet seien – die Rede ist von den
sogenannten „Wachstumsaktien“ des Technologiesektors.

Riskante Spekulationsgeschaefte scheinen also wieder gross in Mode zu
sein. Sieht man sich die juengsten „Hammermeldungen“ an, mit denen
auch hierzulande neuerdings wieder angebliche „Kursraketen“ von
einigen Boersenkommentatoren erfolgreich unters Volk gebracht werden,
kann man diese Beobachtung nur bestaetigen.

Leider muss man den Gluecksrittern sagen, dass sie sich erneut die
Finger verbrennen werden: Stuenden wir heute am Anfang eines neuen
Bullenmarktes, waere das vorherrschende Verhalten der Anleger von
extremer Vorsicht gepraegt. Das Phaenomen der Jagd nach schnellen
Kursgewinnen ist regelmaessig am Ende eines Bullenmarktes zu
beobachten - nicht an dessen Anfang.

Man kann festhalten, dass sich die Gier derzeit wieder in den Koepfen
der Anleger festzusetzen scheint. Eine Zunahme von Aktienkaeufen auf
Kredit ist keine gute Basis fuer einen nachhaltigen
Boersenaufschwung. Auch erscheint es reichlich unwahrscheinlich, dass
der Boden des groessten Baerenmarktes seit 100 Jahren erreicht ist,
waehrend sich die Anleger fuer Aktienkaeufe schon wieder verschulden
und die Regenbogenpresse das Thema Boerse neu entdeckt. "



Grüssels
Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

LIST OF THE PRIMARY GOVERNMENT SECURITIES DEALERS REPORTING TO THE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES DEALERS STATISTICS UNIT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK

ABN AMRO Bank, N.V., New York Branch
BNP Paribas Securities…

++++++++++++++++++++++++

[ThaiGuru]

De chinesische Premierminister verteidigt Währungsankopplung an den Dollar, und will dem Druck der Handlungspartner nicht nachgeben!



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3170088.stm

China will not risk its stability by floating its currency, Mr Wen says

China`s Premier Wen Jiabao has insisted that China will not be railroaded into revaluing its currency by pressure from its trading partners.

China`s policy of keeping the yuan pegged at roughly 8.28 to the US dollar was "based on market demand and supply and is in line with China`s reality," he said.

It showed "a high sense of responsibility towards the international community," he added, speaking in Bali ahead of a summit of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean).

China has come under increasing pressure from the United Sta…

China`s central bank governor answered critics at the G7 summit of industrial nations last month by saying he was willing to consider gradually adjusting the yuan exchange rate, but gave no time scale.

Mr Wen chose a less conciliatory stance.

"To keep the renminbi (yuan) stable at an appropriate and balanced level is conducive to the economic stability not only of China but also of the region and the world at large," he said.

Mr Wen said China would seek an "appropriate" exchange rate "in the course of further economic reform".

Chinese regulators are worried that the banking system is not strong enough to cope with sudden adjustments to the exchange rate.

Mr Wen pointed out that China`s exports amount to 5% of the world`s total.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

Riga. (Interfax/BNS) - The Bank of Latvia increased its gold and foreign currency reserves 13% in September to $1.49 billion, it told the Baltic News Service. Reserves increased 12.3% in the first nine months of the year.

Foreign currency reserves totaled $1.39 billion on September 30 ($1.23 billion on August 31), gold reserves were at $94.66 million ($92.08 million), special drawing rights (SDR) $0.04 million (unchanged), and the reserve position in the IMF $0.08 million (unchanged).
Gold and forex reserves increased 8.9% in 2002 to $1.33 billion.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031008/energy_russia_euro_3.html

Reuters

UPDATE - Russia may switch oil prices to euros-German source

Wednesday October 8, 12:33 pm ET

(Updates with Russian energy ministry comments)
YEKATERINBURG, Russia, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A German government source said on Wednesday that Russia may switch to pricing oil sales in euros rather than dollars, potentially huge news for financial markets.

However, Russian energy and finance ministry officials said they were unable to confirm any change was planned.

"The question is taking on increasing significance," said a government official travelling with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on an official visit to Russia, referring to the possibility of a switch in the traditional energy currency.

Any such change would be a major shift in the balance of currencies behind the world`s most traded commodity and the success of a long campaign by Europe to get oil priced in euros.

It could deal a blow to U.S. economic prestige, as well as t…

Schroeder meets Russian President Vladimir Putin later on Wednesday and they hold a news conference on Thursday morning.

European leaders have long sought to promote the common currency and boost price stability in the European Union (News - Websites) by getting energy contracts priced in euros as well as dollars.

Most energy contracts are settled in dollars, meaning that for European buyers, trade in gas and oil is subject to fluctuations in the U.S. currency as well as in their market prices.

MOSCOW MUTE

Officials in Moscow said that they had no knowledge that anything was going on behind the scenes.

"We cannot confirm this information. No talks are taking pla… a source at the Russian Energy Ministry told Reuters.

A Finance Ministry source also said he was unaware of any preparations for a switch.

"We have not heard anything of the sort. All information (ab… he said.

LUKOIL (LKOH.RTS), Russia`s second biggest oil company, said that it was continuing to work in the U.S. currency.

"LUKOIL draws up its accounts based on the dollar. The company has not yet reviewed its position to change its functional currency to prepare reports," said head of investor relations Gennady Krasovsky.

A source in a large Western trading company was downright dismissive of the talk.

"This is a complete nonsense. The market has been trading in… he said.

****************

Wir werden es ja sehen. TG

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

[Tippgeber1]

@all

Die Richtung gefällt mir nicht, ging davon aus, das es
zügiger wieder nach oben geht und nicht unter die 370$
Marke fallen würde. Dass die Manipulanten derart
erfolgreich intervenieren würde, hielt ich nicht für
möglich.

Ich fürchte, wir müssen uns doch länger gedulden als wir
dachten. Man will die 400$ an bestimmter Stelle nicht
sehen und es scheint so als könnten diese Herrschaften es
nach belieben bestimmten.... wünschte, es wäre anders.

Schade.


Grüssels Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

@Tippgeber

Du hast Recht, die Richtung ist nicht mehr die von heute morgen, die uns Gold Bugs gefällt.

Schau Dir mal diesen Dollar Chart von heute an. Genau wie am letzten Freitag. Massive Interventionen bringen den Dollarkurs wieder auf ein über 3 Tageshoch. Damit kann das Cabal wieder auf den Goldpreis draufhauen.

Wieviel Tonnen Papiergold wurde wohl heute wieder verkauft?

[superman6]

Ich bin auch der Ansicht, dass Unmengen an Papiergold
gegengehalten werden um den Goldpreis auf dieses
Preisniveau zu drücken.
Der Dollar hilft natürlich mit.

Aber schaut euch mal das schwarze Gold an. Steigt
kräftig.
Sonstige Metalle steigen kräftig.

Wie durch ein Wunder fällt Gold wieder.

Für oz. Käufer wieder gute Kaufmöglichkeiten.

[jeffery2]

#7094, 19Uhr53

[silvo]

Hallo Thai!

"Die Richtung"
wird die nächsten Tage mit Sicherheit wieder stimmen.

Öl steigt gewaltig und keinen interessiert`s.


Mein Gold-Silber-Optimismus bleibt ungebrochen!!

[Magor]

# 7098
wieso Jeffery?
Hast Du die subventionierte Gelegenheit versäumt zuzukaufen?

[Kanzler-neu]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/10/10/180518.html

In der Stadt aus Gold
Der Goldpreis bewegt sich auf Höhen, die er seit sieben Jahren nicht erreicht hat. Das weitaus meiste Gold wird zu Schmuck verarbeitet. Ein Besuch in Dubai, größter Goldmarkt der Welt

[Tippgeber1]

@Thai-Guru

der link funktionierte nicht:

Warning: Failed opening `community/board/Wieviel Tonnen Papiergold wurde wohl heute wieder verkauft` for inclusion (include_path=`.:/nfs.dat/include:/nfs.dat/api`) in /nfs.dat/ger/ws52/ws on line 469


Grüssels
Tippgeber1

[gujarat]

Hallo Thaiguru
Noch mal vielen Dank für Deine Thaitips
Alle Aktien rennen.

Möchte ein Teil meines Einsatzes in Goldaktien
investieren Anlagehorizont 2-5 Jahre.
Kannst du mir da etwas empfehlen?
Habe schon hier in deinem Goldboard nachgeschaut
aber die Informationsflut erschlägt mich bzw.ist für mich nicht überschaubar.
Vielen Dank im voraus
(Evtl,Boardmail)
Gujarat

[jeffery2]

J2#7100,ja einfach so verstreichen lassen.

[keepitshort]

am Montag 13.Okt03 ist Feiertag in den USA
da lassen die den Goldpreis am Freitag 10.Okt03
nicht steigen

auch den S&P-Future werden heute am Freitag
noch schön stützen

damit die Amis übers lange Wochenende nicht
auf falsche Gedanken kommen.

Würde am Freitag 10.Okt.03 der S&P500 abstürzen
dann wäre am Dienstag nach dem Feiertag die Hölle los.

[bluemoons]

Gold bald wieder bei 350 Dollar ? – Wen würde das wohl ernsthaft kümmern ?
(10.10.2003)

Gold hat sich wieder einmal vom US-Dollar gelöst und zu einem ersten Test der Zone zwischen 367 und 368 Dollar angesetzt, die Ende vergangener Woche im Zuge eines vehementen Abschwungs erreicht wurde.

Man sollte sich keine Illusionen machen: Unverändert besteht eine nur lockere Verbindung zwischen dem, was sich am physischen Markt für das Edelmetall und beim Terminhandel mit ihm ereignet.

Am Terminmarkt geben die spekulativen Fonds den Ton an. Was sie tun oder unterlassen, sagt kaum etwas über die Situation am physischen Markt aus. Auf der physischen Seite sind neben den industriellen Verarbeitern und jenen Produzenten, die ihre Hedge Books abbauen, seriöse, langfristig denkende Käufer am Werk.

Diese Konstellation sollten die seriösen Käufer nicht beklagen. Im Gegenteil, die Fonds, die überwiegend keinen Unterschied zwischen Schweinebäuchen und dem Edelmetall machen, weil sie ausschließlich auf Differenzgewinne abzielen, verschaffen langfristig denkenden Anlegern immer wieder Gelegenheit, zu relativ günstigen Preisen einzusteigen.

Das war in Zeiten heftiger Aktivitäten am Goldmarkt immer so. Am besten wissen dies die Händler bei den großen Goldhandelsbanken. Sie greifen am physischen Markt zu, wenn die Preise hier wegen massenhafter Liquidationen spekulativer Kaufengagements und neuer Baissepositionen der Spekulation am Terminmarkt gedrückt werden. Und sie geben das Metall, wenn die Spekulation wieder von blindwütiger Kauflust hinweggerissen wird.

Dass schon wegen der fortschreitenden Aushöhlung aller bedeutenden Währungen klassische Gründe gegeben sind, einen Teil des Kapitals in Gold anzulegen, ist weithin unbestritten. Dieses Motiv gewinnt mit jedem verstreichenden Tag an Substanz.

Wen, außer falsch gewickelten Spekulanten, sollte es da wohl stören, wenn der Goldpreis unter dem Druck des Terminmarktes auf 360 oder gar 350 Dollar zurückfallen sollte?

Fazit: Am Goldmarkt lohnt sich konsequentes antizyklisches Denken und Handeln. Das fällt leicht, wenn man sich nicht von Tagesereignissen beeindrucken lässt und das große Ziel der Risikostreuung nie aus den Augen verliert.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
-----------------------------


Wussten Sie schon, dass...?
(10.10.2003)

Unter den Widerständen, die sich einer Beseitigung der weltweiten Ungleichgewichte entgegenstellen, ist der protektionistische Geist in den USA am besorgniserregendsten.


Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, New York


www.taurosweb.de

[ulfur]

Die südafrikanische Minenindustrie macht wegen des starken Rands Druck auf die Regierung. Sind nicht im nächsten Jahr Wahlen?

Crisis threatens 70 000 mine jobs

By Sherilee Bridge

Johannesburg – The mining industry might lay off as many as 70 000 mine workers and halt up to R100 billion worth of capital investment as it struggled to avoid being pushed over the cliff edge by the stronger rand and the higher cost of production, the Chamber of Mines warned yesterday.

"At the current rand price of gold, seven of South Africa`s 12 gold mines are lossmakers," said Roger Baxter, the chief economist at the chamber.

The job cuts represent about a fifth of the mining industry`s 400 000 employment base.

Baxter said the reality was that the mining industry`s export revenue for the full calendar year would fall by R14 billion to R77.1 billion from last year`s R91.2 billion.

Government coffers would also be lighter, with tax revenues from the industry halving to R6 billion from R12 billion in 2002.

"Doing the numbers we have calculated that at today`s rand exchange and with the likelihood of sliding production, the industry faces a total possible loss of R20 billion this year," Baxter said.

Besides the sharp edge of the rand, Baxter said administrative prices were spinning out of control. The cost structures of mines had increased by 30 percent on average, pushed higher by an 8 percent increase in electricity prices, double-digit increases for water supplies, a 35 percent rise in general tariffs charged by Spoornet and a 10 percent increase in wages.

Harmony Gold Mining yesterday added its name to the list of companies warning of job cuts.

The gold producer, which provides employment for 50 000 people, said it had begun talks with the workers` union.

This comes just weeks after marginal mining company Durban Roodepoort Deep followed through on its threat to retrench 3 000 workers at its unprofitable North West operations.

Baxter said it was time for government to "get very serious" about the crisis facing the country`s export industry, which he regarded as the growth engine of the economy.

The rand has strengthened by 26 percent against the dollar since January and by 52 percent over the past 12 months. So, despite higher dollar-set commodity prices, local mining companies are bleeding.

Harmony first alerted the market to the possibility of job losses in April when it released its March-quarter results. It said further strengthening of the rand could threaten 10 000 jobs and slow planned capital spend.

On Wednesday, diamond marketing giant De Beers said it had been forced into a similar position.

Gary Ralfe, the managing director at De Beers, said the continuing strength of the rand posed "a serious and immediate challenge" to the company.

De Beers, which has Anglo American as a 45 percent shareholder, employs 10 000 people at its eight mines in South Africa.

Anglo Platinum, the world`s largest platinum producer, may be next on the list. Speculation is that Anglo Platinum may not meet its expansion target of 3.5 million ounces a year by 2007, despite platinum prices leaping to 23-year highs last week.


Strong local currency will force Harmony to put some jobs on the line, says chief executive

By Reuters

Cape Town - Bernard Swanepoel, chief of Harmony, said at the Black Management Forum conference yesterday:

"There is no doubt that [the strong] rand will cost us some jobs across the company, but to predict how many is just impossible."

"In our organisation, just from natural attrition, the rate at which people leave the company is rather high so we certainly aren`t at the point of looking at retrenchments as yet," Swanepoel said.

The merger of ARMgold and Harmony, approved by shareholders last month, created the world`s fifth-largest gold miner.

Harmony has been hit harder by the rand than its two main rivals, AngloGold and Gold Fields, which have diversified offshore.

Swanepoel said the company was revising its business plans, since they were made on the basis of the rand gold price at R93 000 a kilogramme, but it had since plummeted to R82 000.

Swanepoel said the company was discussing with trade unions its proposal to switch to continuous operations, to keep job losses at a minimum, changing from working 11 days out of every 14.

Harmony stock fell R2.52 after the news of the job cuts to R92.48.

Published on the web by the Business Report on October 10, 2003.

© Business Report 2003. All rights reserved.

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=257298


Mbeki: Gold miners must explain retrenchments

South Africa`s gold mining companies have to explain more clearly and convincingly why the stronger rand obliges them to retrench workers, President Thabo Mbeki said on Friday.

Writing in the African National Congress` online publication, ANC Today, he said contrary to other positive developments, the future of many workers seemed to be threatened by the strength of the rand.

The mining and the clothing and textile industries, in particular, seemed to have taken the lead in promising serious job losses as a result of the appreciation of the exchange value of South Africa`s currency.

A recent report by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu said the average cash cost of production in the South African gold mining industry was $222/oz.

The (Mining) Industry Overview 2000 said total production costs in gold mining in South Africa stood at $240/oz, "making it the world`s lowest cost major producer".

In the same year, the cash operating profits/metric ton of the gold-mining industry were R64,71, with the dollar/oz price averaging $279,13, and the exchange rate at about R7:US1, Mbeki said.

On Friday morning, the dollar gold price was just over $370/oz, almost $100 higher than it was in 2000.

"With this gap between costs and gross revenues, in dollar terms, the gold mining companies will have to explain more clearly and convincingly why the stronger rand obliges them to retrench workers," he said.

"A 2002 internet article (minesite.com) on one of the gold companies that have decided to retrench workers, allegedly because of the strength of the rand, says that in the last quarter of that year, the production costs of this company were $186/oz.

"In this situation it is quite possible that the issue of the strengthening of the rand is being used to hide other problems that have arisen because of bad management.

"We had hoped that, at least, the corporate citizens who are proposing or acting to bring despair to thousands of our working people and their families, through retrenchments, allegedly because of the strength of the rand, would have had the decency to discuss this serious matter with our government, before they made their
announcements.

"Apart from anything else, this would have demonstrated that they too have joined the people`s contract to build a better future for all our people, black and white, to help move our country away from its terrible past," Mbeki said.

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?ao=21756

[Magor]

so, wir haben 16:30 ...
wollen wir doch zugucken, wie sie´s auf der anderen Seite des Teiches es wieder verzweifelt versuchen werden :

[Magor]

ist ja echt frustrierend ...
Kein Verlaß auf die da drüben : - (
nicht mal ein richtiger neuer Versuch die Kurse zu drücken ???
Dabei hätte ich doch soooo gerne noch einige paar Scheinchen
vom 736374
und 736022
in mein Körbchen hinzugelegt ...
Wie sollen denn so meine Limite erfüllt werden können???

Und Montag haben ´se obendrein geschlossen ...
und damit meine Hoffnungen vielleicht ganz dahin ??: - (

[ThaiGuru]

@silvo

#7099

Meiner auch!

@Tippgeber1

#7102

Das war kein Link, darum funktionierte er in #7096 auch nich…

@Ulfur

#7107

Hat doch auch was positives!

Wenn weniger Leute Gold fördern, gibt`s auch weniger Gold zu…

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

@gujarat

Falls Du mit einem Zeithorizont von 2 bis 5 Jahren in Goldaktien investieren möchtest, kann ich Dir folgende Minen Firmen (Ohne Erfolgsgarantie!) empfehlen:

Harmony Gold Südafrika, USA *HMY*

Gold Fields Südafrika, US…


Spekulativ:

CALEDONIA MINING USA OTC BB: *CALVF*

TONGKAH HARBOUR (Thail…

Extrem Spekulativ:

KING`S BAY GOLD (CDNX:KBG.V)

TREND MNG (OTC BB:TRDM.OB)

AG…

Hier ein direkter Link um alle oben aufgeführten Minen Aktien mit Preisen und Charts zu verfolgen:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=s&s=HMY%2BGFI%2BDROOY%2BGG%2BKG…

Es gibt aber noch sehr viele zusätzliche Möglichkeiten in Gold Minen zu investieren. Habe Dir hier nur eine kleine Auswahl von meiner Ansicht nach vielversprechenden Minen aufgeführt. Am besten kaufst Du alle hier aufgeführten Minen. Die Spekulativen Titel, sollten zusammen nicht mehr als 25% Deiner geplanten Anlagesumme ausmachen! Die beiden letzt genannten Titel, nicht mehr als 8%!

Die Aussichten sind bei einem Anlage Horizont von 2, oder mehr Jahren sind sehr gut, doch kann es immer wieder zu Rückschlägen kommen, die bei Gold Minen manchmal richtig (finanziell)weh tun können. Auch gibt es immer noch einige Bullion Banken, und die Zentralbanken unter Federführung der *FED*, die anscheinend (noch) nicht an einem grösseren Goldpreisanstieg interessiert sind, und mit allen möglichen, und unmöglichen Mitteln dagegen halten.

Persönlich bin ich voll investiert in Gold-, und auch Silberminen Aktien, und besitze die obengenannten Minen selbst seit über 2 Jahren selbst auch. Ausnahme ist der thailändische Gold Explorer THL, den ich seit erst etwa 5 Monaten besitze, und den Du wie ich einem Posting von Dir lesen konnte ebenfalls besitzt.

Falls Du Dich aktuell über das Gold und Wirtschaftsgeschehen, und vieles interessante mehr zum Gold Geschehen in englischer Sprache informieren willst, kann ich Dir das USA Gold Forum empfehlen:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/10/11/181617.html

Sonntag, 12. Oktober 2003 Berlin, 14:21 Uhr

Neuverschuldung steuert auf Rekordwert zu.

Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD) räumt erstmals eine erwartete Rekordverschuldung des Bundes von mehr als 40 Milliarden Euro für dieses Jahr ein. EU droht mit Milliardenbuße.

Schmeckt es?
Foto: dpa

Berlin - Das Ministerium gehe in seiner Planung jetzt von 41,9 Milliarden Euro aus, berichtete das ZDF am Samstag nach der Aufzeichnung eines Interviews mit Eichel unter Hinweis auf Regierungskreise.

Damit wäre der bisher vom früheren Finanzminister Theo Waigel (CSU) 1996 gehaltene Minusrekord von umgerechnet rund 40 Milliarden Euro deutlich überschritten. Scharfe Kritik kam von der Opposition. Eichel sei „haushalts- und finanzpolitisch gescheitert“, seine Tage seien gezählt, erklärte der FDP-Haushaltsexperte Jürgen Koppelin.

Unterdessen fordert fast die Hälfte der Bundesbürger den Rücktritt des Ministers, wie eine Umfrage des Meinungsforschungsinstituts „Infratest dimap“ im Auftrag von „Welt am Sonntag“ ergab. 45 Prozent der Befragten plädierten dafür, 49 Prozent dagegen.

Zugleich wird von Fachleuten der Koalition erwartet, dass Deutschland die 3-Prozent-Defizitgrenze der EU nicht nur - wie nach Brüssel gemeldet - mit 3,8 Prozent überschreiten wird, sondern noch deutlicher mit etwa 4 Prozent. Vom Erreichen dieser Marke geht der zuständige EU-Kommissar Pedro Solbes jetzt auch für 2004 aus. Hierfür hat Eichel in seinem Haushaltsentwurf bisher 28,8 Milliarden neue Schulden eingeplant. Deutschland würde damit wie Frankreich zum dritten Mal in Folge gegen den Stabilitätspakt verstoßen. Deshalb drohe eine Milliardenbuße.

Für 2003 hatte der Bundestag zunächst 18,9 Milliarden Nettok…

Eichel selbst erklärte im ZDF: „Wir überschreiten die Marke, weil die weg brechende Konjunk…, erklärte er. „Wenn wir in allen anderen Bereichen so lasch geblieben wären, wie ich es 1999 vorgefunden habe, hätten wir noch viel höhere Schulden.“

Dagegen erklärte Koppelin: „Der Sparkommissar hat sich selbst aufgelöst und ist zum Sch… WELT.de/dpa/ddp

[ThaiGuru]

Historischer Schuldenrekord: 87 Milliarden Euro

Berlin (dpa) - Die Neuverschuldung von Bund, Ländern und Gemeinden wird in diesem Jahr ihren historischen Höchststand erreichen. Finanzexperten in Bund und Ländern rechneten am Sonntag mit mindestens 87 Milliarden Euro statt der im Juli vom Bundesfinanzministerium noch angenommenen 70 Milliarden.

So hoch stehen die Schulden schon: Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel übertrifft möglicherweise den alten Rekord von Theo Waigel.


Für den Bund allein rechnet das Ministerium selbst mit einem Anstieg auf etwa 42 Milliarden Euro im Vergleich zu den für 2003 geplanten 18,9 Milliarden, wie der dpa in Regierungskreisen bestätigt wurde. Die Opposition forderte die Entlassung von Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel (SPD).

Der Minister hatte am Vortag beim hessischen SPD-Parteitag in Baunatal erstmals neue Rekordschulden des Bundes von voraussichtlich mehr als 40 Milliarden Euro in seinem Haushalt 2003 eingeräumt - nach zuletzt 38 Milliarden. Umgerechnet 40 Milliarden hatte sein Vorvorgänger im Amt, Theo Waigel (CSU), 1996 - ein Jahr nach Einbeziehung der neuen Länder in den Finanzausgleich - aufnehmen müssen.

«Wir überschreiten die Marke (von 40 Mio.), weil die wegbrechende Konjunktur uns die Einnahmen weggenommen hat», sagte Eichel. Der Staat habe deshalb viel mehr Geld für die Finanzierung der Arbeitslosigkeit ausgeben müssen. In Anspielung auf die frühere schwarz-gelbe Koalition sagte der Minister: «Wenn wir in allen anderen Bereichen so lasch geblieben wären, wie ich es 1999 vorgefunden habe, hätten wird noch viel höhere Schulden.»

In 87 Milliarden gesamten neuen Staatsschulden 2003 sind neben den 42 Milliarden des Bundes etwa 35 Milliarden der Länder und 10 Milliarden der Kommunen enthalten. 2002 waren es insgesamt etwa 70 Milliarden.

Damit könne auch das für 2003 nach Brüssel gemeldete gesamte deutsche Staatsdefizit von 3,8 Prozent höher ausfallen, sagte Eichel. Experten gehen von deutlich mehr als 4,0 Prozent aus. Austermann nannte im dpa-Gespräch einen Wert von 4,7 Prozent. «Für das kommende Jahr liegen die Risiken noch höher und die Neuverschuldung des Bundes bei etwa 50 Milliarden Euro», sagte er. Eichels Haushaltsentwurf 2004 geht allerdings erst von knapp 30 Milliarden neuen Schulden aus.

4 Prozent Defizitquote erwartet der zuständige EU-Kommissar Pedro Solbes auch mindestens für 2004, berichtete «Focus». Damit würde Deutschland zum dritten Mal in Folge gegen den Stabilitätspakt verstoßen. Deshalb drohe eine Milliardenbuße, meldet das Nachrichtenmagazin unter Hinweis auf die Herbstprognose, die Solbes am 29. Oktober vorstellen wolle. Danach könne das deutsche Defizit im kommenden Jahr im Extremfall sogar bis auf fünf Prozent ansteigen.

Gründe für die Fehlentwicklung sind die Steuerausfälle, die nach dpa-Informationen vom Ministerium für 2003 mit 8 bis 10 Milliarden Euro taxiert werden. Genauere Aufschlüsse - vor allem auch über die Entwicklung bis 2007 soll die Steuerschätzung am 6. November - bringen. Diese wird ebenso wie erhöhte Ausgaben zur Bewältigung der Arbeitslosigkeit Teil eines mindestens 23 Milliarden Euro umfassenden Nachtragshaushalts, der frühestens am 23. Oktober, möglicherweise auch erst nach der Steuerschätzung vorgelegt werden soll.

Der CDU-Haushaltsexperte Dietrich Austermann nannte Eichel den «absoluten Schuldenmacher der Nachkriegszeit» und verlangte seine Entlassung. Der FDP-Politiker Jürgen Koppelin sagte, der Minister sei «haushalts- und finanzpolitisch gescheitert», seine Tage seien gezählt.

erschienen am 12.10.2003 um 13:02 Uhr

© WELT.de

[ThaiGuru]

Wer bei diesen neuen Schulden Rekorden in den USA, in Europa, und speziell auch in Deutschland, immer noch nicht, über eher kurz als lang, an weiter stark steigende Gold Preise glaubt, Gold Bashing des Gold Kartells hin, oder her, dem kann meiner Ansicht nach nichts mehr helfen.

Weitsichtige Anleger kaufen physisches Gold, und ebenso Silb…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/10/12/181709.html?s=2

Ausgabe vom Sonntag, den 12.10.2003

Mit Gold gegen den Westen

Konvertiten aus Europa erfanden eine islamische Währung. Sie soll die Marktwirtschaft erschüttern. Iran will den Gold-Dinar 2004 einführen.

von Sabina Wolf

Eine muslimische Gruppierung im Südwesten Deutschlands fiel Anfang der 90er-Jahre durch starke Sprüche auf: "Dschihad gegen die Marktwirtschaft", "Islam für Europa" schrieben Anhänger der Gruppe auf großflächige Plakate in Universitäten und auf U-Bahn-Stationen. Die Plakate, gespickt auch mit antidemokratischen Parolen, warben für Vortragsveranstaltungen, auf denen dann die Abschaffung von Demokratie und Marktwirtschaft in Europa zu Gunsten einer islamischen Gesellschaft angekündigt wurde, die den Regeln des Islam-Rechts "Sharia" gehorchen sollte.

Sie nennen sich wie jene Muslime, die im mittelalterlichen Spanien gegen die Christen kämpften: "Murabitun" (Turmwächter). Viele Anführer dieser neumodischen Murabitun sind deutsche Christen, die zum Islam übergetreten sind. Sie seien mit einem Besorgnis erregenden Fanatismus aufgetreten, erinnert sich Albert Lampe von der erzbischöflichen Diözese Freiburg. Sogar den ortsansässigen Muslimen in Baden seien sie nicht ganz geheuer gewesen.

Von Freiburg aus machten sich die Murabitun sodann in die neuen Bundesländer auf. Den ahnungslosen Ostdeutschen, die gerade erst in Berührung mit Freiheit und Demokratie gekommen waren, erklärten sie den Dschihad gegen den freien Markt. Per heiligem Krieg, predigte unter anderen ein "Gläubiger" namens Abdul Hamid Evans, müsse nicht nur der Kommunismus, sondern auch das demokratische System und müssten vor allem die Banken sämtlich vernichtet werden, denn sie stünden für "Zins und Wucher", was laut Koran verboten sei. Statt mit Papiergeld, so hörten es die verwunderten Deutschen von Sachsen bis zur Ostsee, müsse endlich wieder mit Gold- und Silbermünzen, mit "Dinar" und "Dirham" bezahlt werden, wie zu Zeiten Mohammeds.[/u]

Denn Papiergeld sei nichts als Betrug.

Doch die Predigten der deutschen Islam-Konvertiten verhallten weitgehend ungehört. Auch in den europäischen Nachbarländern interessierte sich niemand so recht für den Gold-Dinar.

Da hatte Umar Ibrahim Vadillo, Turmwächter-Kollege aus Spanien und ebenfalls erst seit wenigen Jahren glühender Moslem, eine Idee: Im Herbst 2001 prägte er eine 24-Karat-Goldmünze, nannte sie "Islamic Gold Dinar" (IGD) und fuhr damit nach Dubai. Dort präsentierte kein Geringerer als Abdul Razzaq Al Abdullah, Chef der Dubai Islamic Bank, den spanischen Eiferer samt seiner Münze der Öffentlichkeit. Endlich gebe es eine "Gegenwährung gegen Dollar und Euro" freute sich Banker Al Abdullah.

Währungsgründer Vadillo reiste wieder nach Europa, um die frohe Kunde in der Heimat zu verbreiten. "Papiergeld ist der reine Betrug", verkündete er im Mai 2002 in Potsdam und schrieb in einem Aufsatz mit dem Titel "Beyond Economic Man", wer aus dem Papiergeld aussteige, helfe mit, die westlichen Volkswirtschaften zusammenbrechen zu lassen.

Was in Deutschland und Spanien noch unter "Spinnertum" eingeordnet wird, ist in Malaysia bereits Realität. Denn in der königlichen Münzprägeanstalt des asiatischen Landes werden seit kurzem tatsächlich "Islamic Gold Dinar" gefertigt. "Das ist", sagt der Direktor der Prägeanstalt, Dato Megat Mohamed Abdul Wah, voller Stolz, "meiner Meinung nach eine Verpflichtung für uns, damit wir den Gold-Dinar der gesamten muslimischen Weltgemeinschaft zur Verfügung stellen können."

Malaysias Präsident Mahatir geht sogar noch weiter: "Natürlich kann der Gold-Dinar eine Handelswährung in allen muslimischen Ländern werden und auch in nicht-muslimischen Staaten", erklärt er unbekümmert auf einem Programm-Video zum 10. Treffen der "Organisation der Islamischen Konferenz" (OIC), das gestern im malaysischen Putrajaya begann.

Auf jenem Video wirbt neben Präsident Mahatir noch jemand für die neue Islam-Währung: Abdul Hamid Evans, jener aufgeregte "Turmwächter", der in Ostdeutschland zum Kampf gegen Marktwirtschaft und Demokratie trommelte. Er ist, wie auch Spaniens Dinar-Apostel Vadillo, mit Malaysias Premier bestens bekannt. "Der Gold-Dinar", predigte Vadillo vergangenes Jahr an der International Islamic University Malaysia, "wird das Mittel sein, mit dem die Muslime wieder die Führer der Welt werden. Das ist es, was Allah uns aufgetragen hat. Er hat es uns befohlen."

So sehen es auch die Führer der islamischen Diktatur im Iran…

Flankenschutz erhält der iranische Vorstoß zur islamischen Weltwährung dabei abermals aus Europa, dieses Mal sogar aus Berlin. Hier nämlich bietet die "Islamische Zeitung" mit Sitz im Stadtteil Mitte auf ihrer Web-Seite unter "Wirtschaft und Soziales" den Gold-Dinar als Online-Zahlungssystem an. Die Einlagen dieses "E-Dinar" heißt es dort, seien wie bei der Münze "goldgedeckt" (24 Karat). Jeder Bürger dieser Welt kann dort ein Dinar-Konto eröffnen und im Internet-Zahlungsverkehr verwenden. Thilo Mujahid Hirsch, deutscher Konvertit, steckt als "Technik-Vorstand" hinter dem Projekt. Als ihn das Bayerische Fernsehen um ein Interview bat, lehnte er ab und löschte seinen Namen kurz darauf aus dem Internet.

Hirschs Chef Abu Bakr Rieger, Leiter der Berliner Islam-Zeitung, scheut weniger das Licht der Öffentlichkeit: Gemeinsam mit Dinar-Erfinder Umar Vadillo trat er erst im August in Granada anlässlich der Eröffnung der ersten Moschee Spaniens seit der Vertreibung der Muslime von der Iberischen Halbinsel auf. Vor 2000 Zuhörern kündigte er dort den Untergang von Marktwirtschaft und Demokratie und die "Rettung der Menschheit durch den Islam" an.

Die Autorin ist Redakteurin des Bayerischen Fernsehens. Den Fernsehbeitrag sehen Sie dort am Mittwoch (15. Oktober) um 21.20 Uhr im BR-Magazin "Zeitspiegel" (Drittes Programm)

Artikel erschienen am 12. Okt 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Zum Posting #7115

Wie man sehen kann hat die phychologische "Kriegsführung" gegen Gold und Gold Bugs bereits begonnen!

Als die ersten Gold Bugs gegen die Goldpreis Manipulation des Gold Kartels aktiv wurden, war diese in der Zeitung Welt am Sontag erwähnten "Murabitun" was Gold anbelangt noch absolut unbekannt. Ebenso plante der malaysische Premierminister Mahatir noch keinen Gold Dinar.

Nun wird anscheinend mit allen unlauteren Mitteln versucht z…

Es würde mich nicht wundern falls die Menschen bereits jetzt, durch den heutigen Artikel in der Welt am Sontag, und zukünftig vielleicht weiteren Meldungen dieser Art, auf ein Gold Verbot, oder andere Einschränkungen beim Gold Kauf vorbereitet werden, oder doch zumindest von einem Gold Kauf abgehalten werden sollen.

Wer will den schon mit einem Gold Kauf muslimischen Extremisten, und Spinnern, oder der Islamischen Weltherrschaft durch den Gold Dinar zum Durchbruch verhelfen?

Nachtigall ik hör dir trapsen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

auch Gründe für den Einmarsch in den Iran müssen sorgfältig aufbereitet werden ...

Die islamischen Staaten wollen sich doch nach der Vorstellung einiger Rädelsführer mit dem Gold-Dinar vom USD lossagen. Wie kann man sich die Wertbemessung des Gold-Dinars vorstellen? Orientiert am Goldpreis, sicher, aber dem Goldpreis in USD bewertet an der Comex oder von irgendwelchen greisen Fahnenschwingern in London?
Wäre der Gold-Dinar z.B. teurer als für USD an der Comex gekauft, kaufen ihn doch nur wenige, wäre er billiger, würden sie weggehen wie warme Semmel und futsch wären sie ...

[weisthor]

"ThaiGuru
Wer bei diesen neuen Schulden Rekorden in den USA, in Europa, und speziell auch in Deutschland, immer noch nicht, über eher kurz als lang, an weiter stark steigende Gold Preise glaubt, Gold Bashing des Gold Kartells hin, oder her, dem kann meiner Ansicht nach nichts mehr helfen.

Weitsichtige Anleger kaufen physisches Gold, und ebenso Silber!"

@ThaiGuru
Vielen Dank für die laufenden sehr interessanten Nachrichten!!!

Zum Thema Silberkauf (physisch) eine konkrete Frage:

Würdest Du nur Barren kaufen (zB. Degussa) oder auch 999 Silber Medaillen?

Zweitere werden die Banken wohl nicht annehmen, wei einer wirklichen Krise, wäre dies wohl aber egal???

Zumal Silber Medaillen wesentlich günstiger zu bekommen sind. (oft für 10 cent das Gramm umgerechnet!)

Weitere Frage: Investierst Du persönlich nur in 999 oder auch in Sterling Silber (925) ???

Silber Barren contra Silber Medaillen/Münzen -

Vor- Nachteile ???

Hat jemand bessere Infos???

[ThaiGuru]

@weisthor

Es spielt meiner Ansicht nach keine ausschlaggebende Rolle in welcher Form man Silber kauft. Jede Form hat ihre Vor-, und Nachteile. Wichtig scheint mir nur zu sein, dass man sein physisches Silber möglichst nahe am zur Zeit gültigen Silber Wert kauft, also kein grösseres Aufgeld auf den Silberpreis bezahlt.

Besitze selbst auch Silber in Form von 999 Granulat, das auch als Industriesilber bekannt ist. 925 Silber Schmuck, den ich gebraucht günstig erwerben konnte, gehört mir ebenso, wie einiges an Barrensilber. Auch american 1 $ Silver Eagles befinden sich in meiner Obhut. Zudem Silberhaltige CH Münzen, die ich zum nominalwert erwerben konnte.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[michaauto]

@Thai-guru,
Moin,
ich habe mich mich im Silberforum schon geoutet.Ich habe 759883 in großer Stückzahl geordert und bekomme jetzt langsam kalte Füße.Was meinst Du?
Mfg michaauto

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

#7117

Nicht ganz auszuschliessen.

Sadam hat bereits erlebt, was es heisst Oelverkäufe in Euros abzuwickeln.

Die Russen haben vorgestern, in Zusammenhang mit der Diskussion über eine evtl. mögliche Umstellung auf Euros beim Oelgeschäft, so eine mehrdeutige Aussage gemacht, dass sich Russland wohl eine Nummer zu gross für einen militärischen Einmarsch erweisen würde. Putin soll gesagt haben, es sei nicht die Aufgabe des Staates festzulegen in welcher Währung Oelverkäufe abzuwickeln seien, sondern liege im Ermessen der Oelfirmen und vor allem ihrer Kunden, mit welcher Währung bezahlt werden soll.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@michaauto

Ich befürchte ich bin der falsche Ansprechpartner, da ich keine Empfehlungen für den Kauf von Derivative wie Deinen gekauften 759883 abgegeben habe. Der läuft am 29. Okt. 04 ab wie ich gerade sehe.

Im allgemein empfehle ich die physische "Ware" Silber, oder Silber Minen Aktien, allenfalls noch Silberexplorer, aber sicher keine Calls aufs Silber.

Um Dir nicht die ganze Laune zu verderben, ich glaube eher daran dass der Silber Preis nächste Woche wieder steigen wird. Fundamental wäre dies schon längstens überfällig. Bis zum Ablaufdatum Deines 759883 dauert es noch mehr als ein Jahr, das ist noch viel Zeit, und die Zeit arbeitet im Falle von Silber eher für Dich, als gegen Dich.

Doch eine Garantie darauf, dass es auch so kommt kann ich Dir leider auch nicht geben, da es nach wie vor den Silber Bullion banken, und Shorties nicht ins Konzept zu passen scheint, wenn die Silber Preis Notierungen auf 5.-, oder mehr Dollar stehen. Die fühlen sich dann noch bedeutend unwohler als Du michaauto.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Beim nächsten mal kauf lieber gleich die richtige "Ware" Silber, die hat kein Verfalldatum!

[bluemoons]

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Six%20Centuries%20of%20Silv…

[bluemoons]

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

[ThaiGuru]

Hallo Gold Bugs !!!!!

In einigen Minuten lasse ich im WBoard eine Nachrichten Bombe Platzen!

Der östereichische Finanzminister hat einem Bericht des derS…

Glaubt Ihr mir nicht?

Wartet`s ab!

Thread erscheint auch im Dow Jones Board!

"Das private Aktien Portefeuille des östereichischen Finanzm…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Cashlover]

na, wenn das mal nicht die Aktienmärkte zum Kollaps führt......
mfg

[bmann025]

...und Gold steigt bereits...

[Fuller81]

Was wäre denn wenn der deutsche Finanzminister Hans Eichel einen Goldanteil von 100% in seinem Depot hätte?

[ThaiGuru]

Nachdem ich den Lesern im Dow Jones Board auch gelegenheit geben wollte zu sehen was denn ein österreichischer Finanzminister so an Aktien in seinem Portefeuille führt, nun wieder zurück ins Gold Board.

Die Oesterreicher haben gerade ihren kleinen Skandal um die Offenlegung, respektive Anmeldung von Aktienpaketen, auf den ich gar nicht eingehen mag.

Wie der Zufall so spielt, und fluggs haben wir Einsicht in d…

Dummerweise habe ich nur noch nie irgend etwas positives zum Gold, oder Gold Minen von diesem Finanzminister lesen können. Warum um Herrgots Willen kauft der Mann nur für so viel Geld richtige Gold Minen in sein Depot?

Weiss dieser Finanzminister vielleicht irgend etwas genaueres zur Sachlage Gold, dass ihn bewegt haben muss, gleich einen ganzen Drittel seiner Aktien Anlage in Gold Minen zu investieren?

Interessant wäre auch zu wissen ob, und wenn ja, wieviel physisches Gold der Finanzminister Grasser besitzt?

Ist ja eigentlich nicht anzunehmen, dass der Herr Finanzminister Grasser einfach nur Gold Minen Aktien besitzt, ohne auch physisches Gold zu besitzen.

Es gibt hier im Board immer noch viele Leser, und auch User die den Wert des Goldes immer noch nicht richtig einschätzen können.

Der österreichische Finanzminister hat den Wert von Goldminen anscheinend voll erkannt, und immerhin einen ganzen Drittel seines Depots damit ausgestattet.

Der Mann wäre mir als Gold Bug eigentlich richtig sympatisch, wenn da nicht diese Verheimlichung seiner Gold Minen gewesen wäre.

Dieser Finanzminister weiss vermutlich noch viel besser als …

Hier sein Depot:



Quelle: http://derstandard.at/standard.asp?id=1448726

und

http://www.karlheinzgrasser.at/evo/web/khg/3660_DE.0

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Mein letztes Posting kann`s ja wohl nicht gewesen sein?

Wer weiss, wäre doch möglich, dass nun die österreichische Zentralbank ihr früher ausgeliehenes Gold wieder zurückverlangt, und es drum gerade wieder an der Comex zurückgekauft wird?

Wäre nachdem die jetzt auch wissen, dass ihr eigener Finanzminister ein Gold Bug ist, auch sehr naheliegend.

[Magor]

Hallo Thai!
Die Volatilität ist ja echt klasse!
Da scheinen so einige am Markt mächtig nervös zu sein!
Nur zu!

Betreff.:
#7121 / 7122

Genau das meine ich damit, was Du schreibst, allerdings
„Sadam hat bereits erlebt, was es heisst Oelverkäufe in Euros abzuwickeln“
würde unterstellen, er wäre nicht ein Teil des „Systems“ gewesen, eine der vielen Marionetten.

Das sehe ich etwas anders!
Er hatte die Begründung zu liefern, auf Abruf sozusagen!
Nicht umsonst läuft er heute nach ordentlich durchgeführter Arbeit genauso frei irgendwo herum, wie die aus ähnlichen Gründen von der omnipotenten, einzig verbliebenen Weltmacht installierten Pinochet´s, Ghaddafi´s oder ein Bin Laden.
Im Irak zum Wohle der Ölmultis, und in anderen Bananenrepubliken im Auftrage einer United Fruit Company, Chiquita und wie sie alle heißen mit dem heißen Draht zu den Schaltstellen – oder einfacher, bei welchen die sogenannten „Volksvertreter“ in Sold und tiefster Schuld stehen … …
Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, wann die US-Ölmultis Oberhand bekommen werden über die sich heute im Goldrausch befindlichen russischen Öl-Milliardäre, von denen die meisten durch korrupte Machenschaften in kürzester Zeit an ihr unermesslichen Reichtum gekommen sind, wie der Eigner von Lukol, der ehemalige „Energieminister“. Bis dahin ist auch Putin entweder wegrasiert oder ausreichend gefügig gemacht …

Mit eher kurzfristigen Silberoptionen hatte ich gelegentlich gute Erfahrung und mit einigem Glück auch Gewinne machen können, die zur Verbilligung meiner darauffolgenden realen Käufen ordentlich zu Buche schlugen. Meine ursprüngliche Absicht, zum Ende der Optionszeit mir die Ware ausliefern lassen zu wollen erwies sich allerdings trotz heissen Diskussionen mit meinem Banker als „unmöglich“. Leider hatte ich im Vertrauen darauf die Option bis zum Verfallstag behalten, und so durch das zu diesen Stichdaten übliche Preisdumping der Emittenten einiges Mehr an Gewinn versäumt mitzunehmen. Sollte mir so nicht nochmal passieren.
Zugegebenermaßen sind die Preisbewegungen bei der physischen Ware nervenschonender, als die Optionen es sind!
Dennoch, in der Überzeugung eines überfälligen Anstiegs des Silberpreises habe ich aktuell in 736022 investiert.
Gerade heute erscheint mir eine gute Möglichkeit zu sein, den Bestand weiter aufzustocken.

Wo kann man das von Dir erwähnte „Industriesilber“ beziehen Thai?

Grüße
Magor

[Aktienratgeber]

@michaauto:
Keep cool mit deinem Call 759883. Du wirst damit gut gewinnen.
Ich bin übrigens sehr stark (5stellige Anzahl) in 759884 investiert und auch die Wette wird aufgehen ;-)

[hpoth]

High, ThaiGuru,

wie kommt man an solche Private Depots?Ich dachte man muß die Bank, das Konto und den Pin kennen, da kannst Du ja auch mein Depot sicher knacken oder?, Mache Dir keine Mühe ich bin mit gut 45% in Gold, Silberminen gewichtet.Gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

Hallo ThaiGuru,

war zu schnell habe Deine Quellenangabe übersehen, trotzdem
bin ich mit 45% in Edelmetall geichtet.gruß hpoth

PS: übrings Deinen Tip von Gold Resv bei $ 1.80 bin ich gefolgt steht jetzt bei 3.65 neues Ticker Symbol GRZ
Danke hpoth

[Spieler0815]

Reuters
Zeitung - BuBa wird 400 bis 600 Tonnen Gold bis 2009 verkaufen
Montag 13. Oktober 2003, 21:36 Uhr

Frankfurt, 13. Okt (Reuters) - Die Deutsche Bundesbank wird einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge im Rahmen eines künftigen zweiten internationalen Abkommens zwischen 400 und 600 Tonnen Gold von Herbst 2004 bis 2009 marktschonend verkaufen.
Das berichtete die "Börsen-Zeitung" vorab aus ihrer Dienstagausgabe unter Berufung auf informierte Finanzkreise. Die Voraussetzung dafür wäre, dass der Gesetzgeber ermögliche, die Verkaufserlöse zu thesaurieren und somit am Kapitalmarkt wieder anlegen zu können, Anzeige hieß es.

Bundesbankpräsident Ernst Welteke habe sich zu Details im Gespräch mit der Zeitung nicht äußern wollen, da die Verhandlungen über das neue Abkommen zwischen europäischen Notenbanken zur Begrenzung ihrer Goldverkäufe erst im Frühjahr abgeschlossen würden, hieß es in dem Bericht. In den Finanzkreisen werde davon ausgegangen, dass die Notenbanken das Verkaufsvolumen nach ihrem ablaufenden Abkommen von rund 2000 Tonnen beziehungsweise 400 Tonnen jährlich um maximal zehn bis 15 Prozent aufstocken werden, hieß es. Eine solche Erhöhung könne der Goldmarkt angesichts einer günstigeren Nachfrage gut verkraften. Bei der Bundesbank war am Montagabend niemand für eine Stellungnahme zu erreichen.

In dem Bericht hieß es, nach Aussage von Welteke werde in seinem Haus für den Fall künftiger Goldverkäufe geprüft, die Verwaltung der Gewinne im Rahmen einer Ausschreibung Finanzdienstleistern in Tranchen als Fonds zu offerieren. Dabei könnte sich die Bundesbank selbst als Asset Manager für eine Tranche bewerben. Diese Erlöse dürften sich bei günstigem Goldpreis auf über vier Milliarden Euro kumulieren. "Beschlossen im Vorstand ist noch nichts", betonte Welteke dem Bericht zufolge. Seine Lieblingsidee sei es, die Erträge einer Stiftung zu geben, die Projekte für bessere Bildungs- und Forschungsstrukturern fördere. Die Erträge könnten sich bei drei Prozent Rendite pro Jahr bis 2009 auf etwa 500 Millionen Euro summieren.

Welteke lehnte es den Angaben zufolge ab, die Goldgewinne dem Bund zur Schuldentilgung zu überlassen. Sollten die Erlöse via Bundesbankgewinn weiter dem Bund zufließen, sei mit Goldverkäufen nicht zu rechnen, bekräftigte er frühere Aussagen.

Welteke hatte angekündigt, dass die Bundesbank sich angesichts des in einem Jahr ablaufenden Goldabkommens die Option eröffnen wolle, künftig einen Teil ihrer Goldreserven von rund 3500 Tonnen zu verkaufen. Nach dem 1999 geschlossenen Vertrag dürfen die beteiligten Zentralbanken jährlich nicht mehr als 400 Tonnen Gold verkaufen, um einen Einbruch des Goldpreises zu verhindern.

leh
http://de.biz.yahoo.com/031013/71/3oxge.html

[ThaiGuru]

@Spieler0815

Die wichtigen Meldungen scheinen sich sich ja geradezu zu überstürzen.

Der Welteke mit seinen neuerlichen Aussagen ist sowas von durschaubar, dass man ihn getrost für naiv halten kann.

Erstens glaube ich nicht daran, dass er überhaupt noch in der Lage wäre 400 bis 600 Tonnen Bundesbank Gold zu verkaufen, weil diese Menge gar nicht zur Verfügung stehen würde.

Zweitens, falls er diese 400-600 Tonnen Gold 2004 bis 2005 theoretisch verkaufen würde, ist das wie ein Tropfen auf den heissen Stein der Gold Nachfrage.

80-120 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr verkaufen zu wollen, bei einem Defizit von min. 1500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr würde praktisch überhaupt keine Auswirkung auf den Gold Preis entfalten.

Früher hätte eine solche Meldung aber die Gold Preise einstürzen lassen, heute wie es scheint, nicht mehr!


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[bluemoons]

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/1066057984.php

[thethosch]

Nu ma immer schön locker und geschmeidig bleiben

Entspannt Euch ein wenig und gönnt
dem Börsenhirn mal eine kleine Auszeit und
tut mal was für das zu kurz gekommene Gehör

Der neue Song vom musizierenden Börsianer
"the FLUTE of HARMONY"

guckst Du hier:
http://www2.mp3.de/musik/bands/de/1/219862?param=20|60

Viel Spaß damit !!!

Grüße
Tom

[superman6]

Die islamischen Staaten brauchen bestimmt mehr
als 1000 t. für die Prägung des Gold-Dinars.

Woher will Welteke denn das Gold nehmen ??

Vielleicht weiss er ja wo es ist.

[Magor]

Ei der Daus!
Jemand eine Erklärung für diesen Ruck bei Clifton Mining ???

[Magor]

und der nächste Hupfer ...
und bei diesem Wert, Itronics Inc., obwohl der Silberkurs rückläufig ist ...

[weisthor]

hallo @thai

danke zu deinen ausführungen zum physischen silberkauf.

zur thematik silberminen:

vor ca. 4 wochen habe ich aufgrund der empfehlung eines bekannten einen teil meiner coeur in APEX SILVER umgetauscht.

bisher keine große freude:

einstieg: 13,45 heute: ca. 12 euro

überlege, ob ich sie wieder abgeben soll.

hast du nähere infos??? was würdest du mir raten???

dank im voraus und beste grüße, weisthor

[bluemoons]

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/The%20Gold%20Detective.htm

[bluemoons]

The Moabo? - Silver

By: Theodore Butler





The latest Commitments of Traders Report (COT) confirmed that the technical funds completely abandoned the long side in silver, removing the major downside risk to the market. Also, these funds ran strongly from the long side in gold, especially when you extrapolate for trading action since the report`s cutoff date, 10/7. While it is possible to see further long liquidation in gold, tech fund long liquidation is over in silver. All that remains to be seen is if the tech funds can be tricked onto the short side in silver.

Once again, the COTs explained the recent sell-offs in gold and silver. On the surface, all appeared normal, the tech funds ran and the dealers covered their shorts to the downside. The dealers maintained their record of never having capitulated and having to cover their shorts on the upside. But there was something about this recent COT episode that was notable to me, namely, that I came away with the feeling that the dealers just barely pulled this one off. It was not a resounding victory for the dealers, nor a crushing defeat for the funds. If you track closely the run up in silver and gold prices over the past couple of months and then the sell-off, and study the prices that each side established and liquidated their positions, it looked like a wash. Especially in silver, I have the feeling that the dealers were glad to cover a big chunk of what was an historic net short position. The price was secondary. Getting off the short side, as much as possible, was their primary goal.

Ironically (and perhaps heretically to those who`ve read my past writings on the subject), I get the sense that the COTs will not work in the future as they have in the past, especially in silver. I say this for a number of reasons. For one, as I have always maintained, the coming silver shortage will, at some point, trump the COTs. It feels to me, like that physical shortage is very close. Two, the COTs have become a mainstream analytical tool. While trying to decipher who is long and short will always be a worthwhile endeavor, I think any tool loses effectiveness the more popularly it is embraced. (Mind you, I`m certainly not abandoning the study of the COTs. I`m just speaking out loud on some growing reservations of mine, even though they have worked fine to date.) Lastly, the COTs will lose their effectiveness if certain market segments don`t behave within historical patterns. For instance, if, as I suspect, the small trader category in silver increasingly represents participants who are attracted to the low price for fundamental and value considerations, this segment becomes the strong hand and will not liquidate at even lower prices. This would represent a decided break with past historical patterns and render this aspect of the COTs worthless.

Perhaps because of my growing unease with long-learned analysis of the COTs, and my sense that things will play out differently than they have in the past, I find myself asking the question - is this the mother of all buying opportunities in silver? Not from a fundamental perspective, of course, as the answer is a resounding yes. The deficit, the nonexistent inventories, the law of supply and demand, the extreme low risk, the extraordinary high profit potential, etc., are the reasons behind that resounding answer. That`s a given. I`m talking about timing and near term price expectations. This is something I prefer not to do, because I never want my sense of near term pricing to ever cause anyone to become unbalanced and, if I am wrong, lose a long term, sure thing position in silver. While I can be wrong short term on silver, the long term is guaranteed by the fundamentals and the deficit. And the manipulation.

Ever since the price of silver burst upward at the end of July, I was consistently wary that it was the real move, simply because the tech funds had gotten so long on that move quickly and the dealers the reciprocal short. That is no more. The tech funds are off the long side completely, and all that remains on the long side are the hard core non-technical large speculators and the previously mentioned small pit bull longs. As I mentioned at the outset, the only remaining question is will the tech funds be tricked onto the short side? I don`t know. If I did know, I could easily tell you the bottom in silver. So let me tell you what I do know and what I suspect.

If the tech funds don`t go short, then this is now the mother of all buying opportunities ("MOABO") in silver. If they do go short, when they are done shorting, then will be the MOABO. The good news, no the great news, is that they are not long. The good news is that if they do go short, it should not take prices much lower than we are now. That`s not because the tech funds are smart (as you know, I think they`re as dumb as dirt), but because their mechanical rules prevent them from initiating new short sales too far below the moving averages, currently around $5.10. It would take a lot of time, probably months, for the dealers to engineer the tech funds to the short side of silver, based upon historical patterns. I don`t think the dealers have the luxury of time.

To be clear, what I am saying is either we are at the MOABO right here and now, or we will be, pretty soon, right around these price levels, or just a bit lower. I don`t see a lot to be gained, price-wise, by waiting. I am no longer wary, as I have been for the past two months. The market structure is better positioned for this being a bottom than at any point in the past few months. Of course, if I`m wrong, I`ll apologize. Just don`t over-leverage yourself to the point where a near term setback will cause you to jettison a long term silver position.

I think a key factor in the timing issue will be the disposition of the December silver call options. There are roughly 45,000 open calls due to expire on November 24, less than six weeks from now. That`s the equivalent of 225 million ounces of silver, a huge amount. You may recall that I wrote about these options at the beginning of the year. There will be a concerted effort by the shorts to prevent these options from expiring in the money. If they succeed, we will have to wait until the expiration to explode. If they fail, all hell could break loose to the upside.

Of course, I am assuming that on the next silver rally, the dealers will not allow the tech funds to get long (or cover their shorts, if the tech funds are tricked into going short), by the dealers themselves selling short big on that rally. This is the essence of the MOABO - the dealers don`t short and prices vault upward. This hasn`t happened yet, and this is why we haven`t moved higher in silver. The dealers always sell. Or, at least, they always have sold. One day, for sure, they won`t.

I think that day is close. For one thing, their game is becoming more obvious to more people. Almost 1300 people took the time to add their names to the petition to Attorney General Spitzer. For a strong, continuing manipulation, that`s not good. A manipulation doesn`t thrive when many ordinary folks are aware of it. (By the way, when I get around to writing my book about silver, those names will be recorded therein). Another thing suggesting we are close to the end of this silver scam, is the lack of any type of rebuttal by anyone, but especially the CFTC and the COMEX to my very constructive suggestion of eliminating the possibility of a silver delivery default by making sure that the longs and shorts in the current delivery month are able to perform by first notice day.

Since this is such a simple and constructive proposal, I think some people may be taken back by its very simplicity, and I have been asked to better explain my solution. So let me explain what I`m talking about. For silver (and other commodity) futures contracts, the delivery period begins at the very beginning of the contract month, as that month comes due, and lasts until the very end of that month. First delivery day is at the start of the month, last delivery day at the end of the month. The short contract holder has the option of deciding when to deliver, from first delivery day until the very last day, if he so chooses. I`m not proposing to change that. What I am proposing is that the exchange certify that by first notice day, those holding short contracts in the current delivery month actually have the goods to deliver. If not, then that short must close out his position, or roll it into a more deferred month. To be fair, I am also proposing that any long position holder have the full cash value of the contracts he holds deposited by first delivery day, so he too is certified to take delivery, or the long must close out his position or roll over. This would eliminate completely, the chance of a delivery default. This would be a very good thing.

As it stands now, current rules allow the longs and shorts to "bluff" each other in the current delivery month, with neither being required to prove they can perform their delivery requirements. This is insane and irresponsible. If we get to last delivery day, and either party, but particularly the shorts, can`t deliver, we have a default. That`s the worst thing that can happen. It is what I am trying to prevent. You would think the NYMEX/COMEX would be very receptive to my solution, considering their track record. Three years ago, the price of platinum soared 60%, in two days, from $500/oz to $800, because the shorts in the April 2000 contract couldn`t deliver on a measly 40 contracts, on the two last delivery days. The shorts` bluff was called. Were my solution in effect, this could never have happened.

As if this relatively recent delivery month debacle isn`t enough of a reason for the NYMEX/COMEX to step up to the plate and do the right thing and adopt my delivery month solution, there is also the blackest of black marks marring the NYMEX`s history. I`m talking about the 1975 Maine Potato disaster on the NYMEX, where a once vibrant market was shut down forever because of a delivery default against the May contract. Yeah, the shorts couldn`t deliver. As unbelievable as it sounds, even with this market infamy tainting the history of the NYMEX, exchange officials are trying to look the other way to a fair and surefire solution to prevent a recurrence. You would think they would have adopted my solution on their own, long ago.

Whether the NYMEX and the CFTC do the right thing, or not, is something that they will have to live with. Certainly, they will never be able to say they didn`t have the opportunity of making COMEX silver default proof. For the time being, silver investors should concern themselves if we are facing one last opportunity for the investment ride of a lifetime.



-- Posted Tuesday, October 14 2003
http://news.goldseek.com/TedButler/1066166892.php

[superman6]

Ich habe hier auch schon mal auf Investika hinge-
wiesen.

folgende Meldung hat IVK heute herausgebracht:

Early next week - was immer das bei denen bedeuten mag - also Anfang
nächster Woche kommen die ersten Bohrergebnisse aus Ghana?

Auf jeden Fall ist für den Rest der Woche für Spannung
gesorgt.


Beim Gold zeigen der Hui und der XAU-INDEX das wahre
Gesicht.

[ulfur]

Der Druch der südafrikanischen Minengesellschaften und der NUM auf die Regierung hat gewirkt. Die Zinsen werden gesenkt, somit der Rand gegenüber dem Dollar geschwächt. Bessere Gewinnaussichten für die südafrikanischen Goldminen.


Monetary policy stance

In view of this generally favourable inflation outlook and taking into consideration the positive impact of the current monetary policy stance on inflation in South Africa going forward, the Monetary Policy Committee has decided to reduce the repo rate by a further 150 basis points to a level of 8,5 per cent effective from 17 October 2003. The Monetary Policy Committee will continue to monitor all the risk factors to the inflation outlook. If the outlook deteriorates, the Committee will not hesitate to change the monetary policy stance.

Aus
http://www.reservebank.co.za/internet/Publication.nsf/WhatsN…

[superman6]

Das dürfte auch für Durban Rodep. der Durchbruch
sein.

[ulfur]

ftd.de, Fr, 17.10.2003, 7:00
Harte Rendite mit Aktien von Metallproduzenten
Von Horst Fugger

Für viele überraschend entwickeln sich Aktien von Metallproduzenten zu Highflyern an der Börse. Wer in diese Rohstofftitel investieren will, sollte sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums umsehen.


In den vergangenen Monaten ist eine Branche in den Vordergrund des Anlegerinteresses gerückt, von der man schon lange nichts mehr gehört hatte - zumindest nichts Gutes. Wer Aktien von Basismetallproduzenten in seinem Depot hatte, zählte während der großen Hausse der 90er Jahre zu den wenigen Verlierern an der Börse. In den Zeiten der Hightech- und Interneteuphorie konnte sich kaum jemand für Uraltbranchen wie den Abbau von Metallerzen erwärmen. Seit Geschäftskonzepte wie B2B und B2C allerdings von der schmerzhaften Erkenntnis B2R ("back to reality) abgelöst worden sind, hat sich das Bild ein wenig gewandelt.

Die Aktien der Metallproduzenten haben in den vergangenen dreieinhalb Jahren zwar nicht durch enorme Kursgewinne geglänzt, aber zumindest kam es auch nicht zu derart exorbitanten Verlusten wie in vielen anderen Industriezweigen.

Metallaktien unabhängig von der allgemeinen Börsentendenz


Die Entwicklung der Metallaktien wies in den vergangenen 20 Jahren eine sehr geringe Korrelation mit der allgemeinen Börsentendenz auf. Und da es sich hier um einen der ältesten Industriezweige überhaupt handelt, kann man nach eingehender Beschäftigung mit der Börsengeschichte feststellen: Das war schon immer so. Einerseits handelt es sich zwar um eine sehr konjunktursensitive Branche, die vor allem dann aufblüht, wenn die wichtigsten Verbraucher, sprich: die großen Industrieländer, die Wende von der Rezession in eine konjunkturelle Aufwärtsbewegung vollziehen.

Andererseits gibt es im Metallbereich sehr ausgeprägte Preiszyklen, die Jahre, manchmal Jahrzehnte dauern. Vielleicht haben diejenigen unter den Experten also Recht, die den jüngsten Preisauftrieb bei Aluminium, Kupfer oder Nickel als Beginn einer sehr langen Aufwärtsbewegung werten. Für eine solche Sichtweise spricht auch, dass die Preise im historischen Langfristvergleich noch immer recht niedrig sind. Gleiches gilt übrigens auch für die Aktienkurse der Produzenten.

Wachstumsmotor China als Hauptargument

Als wichtigstes Argument für einen lang andauernden Aufschwung nennen die Metall-Optimisten, dass China als bevölkerungsreichste Volkswirtschaft der Erde eben dabei ist, endgültig den Schritt vom Schwellenland zur Industrienation zu vollziehen. Die Chinesen haben sicherlich das nötige Fachwissen und Kapital, ihre eigenen Fernsehapparate, Autos und Microchips zu produzieren. Was sie aber nicht haben, sind Rohstoffe. Das drittgrößte Land der Welt leidet unter einem angesichts seiner geografischen Ausdehnung erstaunlichen Mangel an Erz-, Kohle- und Ölvorkommen. Schon jetzt importiert China 20 Prozent des weltweiten Bedarfs an Industriemetallen, mit deutlich steigender Tendenz.

Wer in Aktien von Basismetallproduzenten investieren will, muss sich außerhalb des Euro-Raums umsehen, denn die Branchengrößen kommen aus Nordamerika, Australien und Südafrika. Ein solches Engagement ist also zwangsläufig mit einem Währungsrisiko verbunden: Ein weiterhin starker Euro wird eventuelle Kursgewinne in der jeweiligen Landeswährung reduzieren, eine Euro-Abschwächung wird zu einem Zusatzgewinn oder zu einer Verlustminderung führen.

Spezialisieren oder Diversifizieren?

Derzeit gehen die Meinungen auseinander, welche Aktien die besten Chancen bieten. In dieser Branche gibt es nämlich Spezialisten, die sich auf ein ganz bestimmtes Metall konzentrieren, und Generalisten, die eine Vielzahl von Metallen fördern und oft auch im Öl-, Gas- oder Kohlebereich tätig sind. Von Letzteren gehören einige auch bei Edelmetallen und Diamanten zu den wichtigsten Produzenten. Generell weisen sie eine deutlich höhere Marktkapitalisierung (Börsenwert) auf als die spezialisierten Unternehmen. Zu den Generalisten zählen der weltgrößte Rohstoffkonzern BHP Billiton aus Australien (Eisenerz, Kupfer, Aluminium, Nickel, Öl, Gas), die ähnlich breit aufgestellte britisch-australische Rio Tinto, Anglo American aus Südafrika (Basismetalle, Diamanten, Gold, Platin, Eisenerz, Kohle, Holz) oder die kanadische Noranda (Zink, Kupfer, Nickel, Aluminium, Blei, Gold, Silber und Kobalt).

Zu den aus Anlegersicht interessantesten Spezialisten gehören die Aluminiumproduzenten Alcoa (USA) und Alcan (Kanada). Alcan hat kürzlich die französische Pechiney geschluckt und wird Alcoa als Weltmarktführer im Alu-Bereich ablösen. Bei Nickel sind Norilsk Nickel (Russland), Inco und Falconbridge (beide Kanada) führend. Norilsk gehört auch bei Platin und Palladium zu den Großen, Inco fördert nebenbei bedeutende Mengen Kupfer und Kobalt, Falconbridge befindet sich zu 59,6 Prozent im Besitz des Generalisten Noranda. Wer einen Kupferspezialisten sucht, wird bei Phelps Dodge (USA) fündig.

Spezialisten stehen nach jüngster Aufwärtsbewegung besser da

In der jüngsten Aufwärtsbewegung haben sich die Aktienkurse der Spezialisten allgemein besser entwickelt als die der breit diversifizierten Rohstoffkonzerne. Der Grund ist simpel: Ein stark steigender Kupferpreis wirkt sich für Phelps Dodge eben weit stärker aus als zum Beispiel für BHP Billiton, denn für die Australier ist der Rohölpreis weitaus wichtiger. Vor allem Fondsmanager in den USA haben sich stark auf diese so genannten "pure plays" konzentriert, und wenn man sich die Kursentwicklung der vergangenen Monate ansieht, behielten sie damit auch Recht.

Wenn sich der Trend zu allgemein steigenden Preisen im Metallsektor allerdings stabilisiert, spricht auch wenig gegen ein Engagement in BHP, Rio Tinto oder Anglo American. Der preiswerteste und somit vielleicht chancenreichste "Gemischtwarenladen" im Nichtedelmetallbereich ist allerdings Noranda. Die Aktie des kanadischen Unternehmens ist erst vor kurzem aus ihrem jahrelangen Tiefschlaf erwacht. Und bis zum Allzeithoch von 33,40 kanadischen Dollar aus dem Jahr 1997 hat das Papier noch sehr viel Luft.

© 2003 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustratio

[superman6]

# 7145 die Sache mit Investika


bei w.o. heute der Top-Threat an allen Ecken
und Kanten.

Alles wartet jetzt auf die Meldung am Anfang
der kommenden Woche.
Ob wohl 1 Mio. oz. veröffentlicht veröffentlicht
werden. Ich bin mal gespannt.
Auf jeden Fall ist der Kurs heute mächtig ange-
sprungen.

[ThaiGuru]

Silver Technicals

Silver is a perpetually fascinating commodity. It shares much in common with the golden king of precious metals, yet it is also quite different in so many ways.

While silver has embarked upon a multi-year primary bull-market journey just like gold, its performance thus far in this young precious-metals bull has unfortunately disappointed some. Bull-market-to-date gold has soared up by 52% trough-to-peak, while silver’s bull-to-date gains have lagged rather dramatically at 31% trough-to-peak at this early stage in the game.

Although silver’s relative underperformance to gold so far has been frustrating at times, legions of investors and speculators still eagerly follow it and drool over its breathtaking potential. Silver is generally a far more volatile market than gold, and while it can slumber for a long time, once it decides to finally move it really moves!

Silver gains in history during episodes of widespread precio…

Unlike gold, central banks are not sitting on well over a decade’s worth of total global mined silver production in vaults. There is no massive supply overhang of silver threatening its progress like gold. When silver starts galloping, there are no huge stockpiles that can be called upon to meet soaring demand. Once the silver rocket leaves its launchpad, it has no brakes to slow its glorious ascent!

Unlike gold, very few primary silver mines exist on Earth today. The vast majority of global silver production today is simply a byproduct of base-metal mining, so even skyrocketing silver prices are unlikely to immediately spur higher silver production for the majority of operations just mining it as a byproduct. Silver mining supplies are restricted over the short-term almost regardless of how high silver runs.

Unlike gold, silver is an extremely critical metal for all kinds of high-tech computer-age manufacturing applications. Industrial demand for silver is large and growing every year with the proliferation of new computing and communications devices. And as all of these high-tech tools and toys each individually use only trivial amounts of silver, even a gargantuan increase in silver prices will probably barely dent global industrial demand. Silver industrial demand is voracious and growing almost regardless of how high silver runs.

Unlike gold, the silver market is very small and relatively thinly traded. There is simply not much room in silver for new capital. So once precious-metals fever catches on with the populace again, and speculative fury spills into the metals, the deluge of new capital into silver will be relatively enormous and catapult its prices to record levels that few can even imagine today.[/u]

All-in-all, the bullish fundamental case for silver far outs…

While the long-prophesied explosion in silver could certainly erupt anytime with little advance warning, so far in its young bull market silver has richly rewarded the gunslinging speculators. Its total gains have not been stupendous yet, but its great volatility has yielded some incredibly profitable trading swings in recent years. As an example of this, in our Zeal Intelligence newsletter for our subscribers, we have already traded in and out of one particular elite silver stock multiple times in recent years, for +47%, +90%, +30%, and +43% realized wins.

Although silver has always been near and dear to my own heart, I have not penned many essays on it since I presented the extremely bullish fundamental case for it in “Lagrimas de la Luna” several years ago. There are several reasons for this long drought of Zeal essays on silver specifically.

First, silver tends to move in lockstep with gold so we have been able to successfully piggyback our actual silver-related trading on top of our gold analyses. Second, since silver is such a tiny market it is challenging to uncover good solid information, not mere rumors and innuendo, about what is really going on in the silver world at any given time. Third, since silver’s performance has lagged gold there has just not been much excitement surrounding this precious metal yet.

And last but not least we hadn’t yet internally developed any particularly useful trading tools for silver and silver stocks specifically. Recently however I had written about some gold trading tools we developed and are using in actual real-world speculations today, the Gold 50/200 MACD and the Relative HUI, and lots of good folks wrote in and wondered whether they would work for silver as well.

This week I would like to take a look at the applicability of these pure technical moving-average-related trading indicators that we developed for gold instead applied directly to silver itself. The results of our initial inquiry into this line of research this week were certainly interesting and I am very grateful and thankful to all of you who wrote in and suggested that we take a look at this.

As always, it is best to begin with the strategic overview of the bull market in silver compared to the bull market in gold so we can embark upon our silver research with the benefit of the proper perspective.



Since silver and gold are both precious metals, it is not at all surprising that they tend to correlate quite well. When gold is shining odds are silver is rallying too, and when gold is suffering silver generally joins it in the gutter. This graph really helps illuminate why we have been blessed with success in speculating in silver stocks while using pure gold analysis as the structural backbone for our actual trading timing decisions in recent years. Most of the time, as goes gold so goes silver.

While its bull market has been more modest than gold’s so far, silver’s bullish uptrend is now very well-defined thanks to the recent interim silver highs of early September. Silver has conveniently made multiple trips to both its strong lower support line and its current overhead resistance, granting technical analysts a nice trend channel to ponder. Yes, this trend pipe is wide and silver is phenomenally volatile within this channel as always, but still in the grand bullish scheme of things the silver price is behaving quite well.

Now while technical analysis, looking at silver prices alone, is no substitute for the fundamental analysis I discussed above, it is nevertheless an important factor to consider. Technical and fundamental analysis compliment each other and always go hand in hand.

Fundamental analysis is sweeping and strategic in nature, absolutely necessary to let investors and speculators know whether silver should be in a bull or bear market based on its supply and demand fundamentals. Since fundamental analysis only focuses on the giant economic picture however, it is not very useful for making actual real-time trading decisions within silver’s bullish uptrend.

This is where technical analysis, which is short-term and tactical in nature, absolutely shines. It zooms in within the context of sound fundamental analysis and fills in the gaps for speculators. Analyzing silver prices alone in isolation is necessary if one is to develop a sound basis for executing high-success-probability real-world trades in silver and silver-related vehicles.

Fundamental and technical analysis are two sides of one market coin. Fundamental analysis helps answer the grand “why” question, why is silver in a bull market. Technical analysis then zooms in next and addresses the crucial “when” question, when should I buy or sell silver speculations in order to attempt to realize profitable trades?

Our pair of gold trading tools that we want to apply to silver this week, the Silver 50/200 MACD and Relative Silver, are purely technical, based entirely off of silver prices alone. Yes, we know silver is in a bull-market season fundamentally, but how do we trade it and make educated guesses about tomorrow’s silver price? Some potential insight may lie in the fascinating interaction of silver with its two key moving averages, the 50-day and 200-day.

In the graph above you can observe the raw data, the volatile oscillations of silver relative to its two major moving averages. While the interaction of the blue silver line and its white 50dma and black 200dma lines is visually interesting, our human eye can’t precisely mathematically quantify these sometimes subtle relationships. Using some simple math and our gold tools however, we can empirically lock down these fluctuations and read them off of a common base, making them much easier to interpret.

Our first pure technical tool to apply to silver today, the 50/200 MACD, (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) was explained in depth in my recent “Trading the Gold-Stock Bull 2” essay if you are interested in some deeper background information. In a nutshell, the 50/200 MACD simply divides a 50dma by a 200dma and converts the quotient into a percentage. When applied to silver, the result tells us how far silver’s 50dma was above or below its 200dma in percentage terms at any given moment in time.

As I explained in my earlier essays on these gold tools, using percentages is crucial to remove visual skew as the silver bull market grows in strength, since percentages stay constant over time even as the underlying silver prices meander higher. A 10% gain in silver is always a 10% gain in silver, whether it blossoms from a $4 base or a $15 base price in the white metal. The Silver 50/200 MACD grants us an easy visual way to see a faithful and comparable representation of the interrelationship of silver’s key moving averages over time regardless of the prevailing silver prices at any given moment.



Unlike gold which has so far tended to stay above its own 200dma in its gold bull to date, silver’s immense volatility carries it all over the chart relative to its black 200dma line. As such, before we created this graph I was pretty skeptical about the usefulness of running the 50/200 MACD indicator on silver. Interestingly however, the Silver 50/200 MACD actually did manage to salvage some structure out of silver’s volatility and make for a potentially useful trading indicator.

The light blue line above represents the Silver 50/200 MACD and yields some excellent timing clues. The whole goal of technical analysis is to define relatively good moments in time to buy or sell. While speculators always eat this stuff up, even you dedicated long-term buy-and-holders ought to pay attention here. The Silver 50/200 MACD also offers some great insights into high-probability moments to buy silver and silver stocks at lower points during technical weakness to add to long-term positions.

If you look at the lower portion of this chart first, under the dark gray 0% line, the Silver 50/200 MACD has tended to bottom between -1% and -3% so far in its young bull market to date. This means that silver has generally traded low enough for long enough that its 50dma trades between 1% and 3% under its 200dma before another silver upleg commences. The implications of this simple observation are obvious.

If you want to buy silver, silver stocks, silver futures, silver options, whatever, your best bet is to patiently wait until the Silver 50/200 MACD slides under zero. The lower this indicator gets, the stronger the buy signal. Naturally this pure technical buy signal applies to both short-term speculators and long-term investors, as buying at naturally low points is super important for the long-term as well and can dramatically multiply one’s ultimate realized returns.

Conversely, on the high side of this chart, so far in silver’s young bull its 50/200 MACD has not migrated far above 6% to 7%. If you are holding short-term speculation positions in silver-related vehicles and you witness a Silver 50/200 MACD greater than 6% or so, it is probably a good time to consider either ratcheting up your stop-losses or selling outright. Caution is in order whenever silver’s 50dma manages to charge more than 6% above its 200dma.

So, from a Silver 50/200 MACD perspective, silver investors and speculators want to wait to add new long positions until the Silver 50/200 MACD trades under 0%, preferably down to the -1% to -3% range indicating relatively low silver prices. And after the ensuing silver upleg runs, the gunslinging speculators ought to prepare to sell once this indicator moves above 6% or so.

The Silver 50/200 MACD is a simple indicator that yields simple rules, but it is very useful as it helps filter out our own dangerous human emotions in favor of pure technical math. When silver is undervalued relative to its key moving averages, odds are a good time to buy is at hand. When silver grows overvalued relative to its key moving averages, it is probably a good time to think about selling.

My only caveat about using this tool in your own trades it to remind you to please realize that the silver bull market remains young and we really don’t have a lot of data yet. Blossoming well after the gold bull launched, the silver bull’s two-year anniversary won’t even be upon us yet until Thanksgiving time, so please remember that the Silver 50/200 MACD is applied to less than two years of bull-market data here. Nevertheless though, even in its short lifespan so far the Silver 50/200 MACD looks like a useful technical tool for speculators to consider when making timing decisions on silver entries and exits.

Finally, it is interesting to note that the Silver 50/200 MACD today, at around 6% or so, is on the high side of its recent historical range. While I love silver stocks and am looking forward to buying on relative weakness, current conditions based on this indicator certainly do not suggest that now is an ideal time to buy. On the contrary, stop-losses should be tight and caution in order as silver may need to consolidate after its awesome upleg of last quarter.

Our second gold technical tool applied to silver is based on the Relative HUI concept, which I explained in depth in my “Trading the Relative HUI” essay. It involves taking a price and dividing it directly by its own 200dma. The resulting quotient shows where the price is trading relative to its own 200dma at any given time and also eliminates chart and price skew.

Ideally I would like to see this 200dma relativity idea applied to a pure silver-stock index, but unfortunately I am not aware of a suitable candidate. To the best of my knowledge there really aren’t any popular and respected mainstream indices that focus exclusively on silver stocks alone. Several research boutiques are developing proprietary silver-stock indices that are promising, but unfortunately for now silver stocks really don’t have their very own index to call home.

As such, we applied 200dma relativity to the silver price directly for our next chart. If a silver-stock index rises to widespread acceptance in the coming years, which I suspect will happen, we will shift this indicator away from silver itself and use the silver-stock index.

Incidentally we did run these charts on most of the elite silver stocks individually this week as well, but the various single-stock charts were really volatile and different enough that it was evident a true silver-stock index is really necessary to complete this analysis. For now though, behold Relative Silver!



Trading on the Relative Silver indicator is a lot like trading on the Silver 50/200 MACD. The beauty of this simple math is that it removes chart and price skew and gives us a hard comparison of the silver price to its 200dma over time. A 1.00 reading indicates that silver is currently trading at its 200dma, while a greater than 1.00 reading indicates that silver is forging above its 200dma. A sub-1.00 reading, of course, indicates that silver is trading under its 200dma.

Once again the bottom of this chart yields our buy-side technical entry signals. Generally silver gets interesting as it heads below its 200dma at 1.00, but really strong buys seem to occur at a Relative Silver 0.95 range, when silver is trading at 95% of its 200dma. Investors and speculators buying anytime in this silver bull to date when Relative Silver headed under 0.95 were soon richly rewarded as exciting new silver uplegs exploded higher.

On the sell-signal side of this technical equation, so far a Relative Silver reading above 1.10 has warranted caution and the raising of stops if not outright selling. Each time the price of silver managed to trade above its 200dma by 10% or more, its current upleg seemed to be running out of steam and limping along on borrowed time.

So, according to Relative Silver, silver investors and speculators ought to be throwing long when this indicator heads down around 0.95 or so. The speculators then should consider preparing to get out of Dodge when Relative Silver heads above 1.10 or so. Once again this simple technical tool yields simple and consistent technical guidelines to help investors and speculators decide on tactical execution timing within a strategic bull market.

Provocatively, at around 1.04 today, Relative Silver at the moment is roughly midway between its strong buy levels at 0.95 and its raise-stop levels above 1.10. Based on this indicator, if you have current silver-related positions you probably want to hold them if you haven’t been stopped-out yet, but if you are waiting to deploy fresh capital now does not look like an ideal time. Relative Silver is basically neutral today, a hold.

While these gold tools applied to silver are certainly interesting, I do have to close with a pair of caveats.

First, as I mentioned above, the silver bull isn’t even two years old yet so there really isn’t a great deal of data to define relative technical high and low points yet. The Silver 50/200 MACD and Relative Silver indicators may grow into fine tools, but for now they should be used cautiously as simply a couple more input points for investors and speculators to consider before making actual real-world trades.

In this vein, we will be considering the Silver 50/200 MACD and Relative Silver as we execute actual future real-world silver-stock trades for our Zeal Intelligence newsletter and Zeal Speculator alert service subscribers. We will also be actively working at Zeal to refine our silver trading models and add new indicators to the mix, as well as adjusting these two covered here today as more data pours in.

Second, speculation is always risky on multiple fronts! If you want to trade silver or silver options or silver stocks, you have to fully realize and completely accept the fact that you just may be caught outside of your positions if silver explodes without warning someday out of the blue. If you cannot accept this risk of missing The Big One, then don’t trade silver-related speculation vehicles!

Or you could do as I personally do, always have some long-term investment capital committed to physical silver and silver stocks while at the same time maintaining a completely separate short-term portfolio to be used for silver speculation. This medium-risk strategy always maintains core long-term long silver exposure, while at the same time granting one the chance to realize excellent trading gains. I continue to discuss these strategies as they evolve in our newsletters for our subscribers.

The bottom line is that the Silver 50/200 MACD and Relative …

Adam Hamilton, CPA

October 17, 2003

So how can you profit from this information? We publish an acclaimed monthly newsletter, Zeal Intelligence, that details exactly what we are doing in terms of actual stock and options trading based on all the lessons we have learned in our market research. Please consider joining us each month for tactical trading details and more in our premium Zeal Intelligence service at … www.zealllc.com/subscribe.htm

[ThaiGuru]

October 17 - Gold $371.30 down $1.20 - Silver $4.92 up 1 cent

Comex Fire Drills And Silly Gold Cartel Games

Most of us are just about as happy as we make up our minds t… -- Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865)

GO GATA!!

Comex closed for a fire drill for one-half hour today. Most appropriate as the cabal has been conducting fire drill raids on the gold market for two weeks now. They continue to be as blatant as possible, doing what they can to make sure other investors believe the shorts are going to relentlessly continue their attacks.

Most markets were subdued this morning when MORGAN STANLEY came out with guns a blazin’ on the Comex opening. They savaged the market and after a minor rally trampled it again. By mid-morning it sunk to $365.50, down $7 and a new low for the move, taking out the low made on the $13+ down day two weeks ago.

Only gold was moving to this degree. As you all well know by…

What irks me the most is there are so few people out there calling a spade a spade after all these years. These bullion banks are acting in a concerted fashion to do what they can to get the price down. Is it because President Bush is going around saying we still have a "strong dollar policy," but the market should determine the dollar`s relative value? Once again I ask, "Mr. President, what exactly is your "strong dollar policy?" "How does your Administration execute this policy?"

The only explanation of what the so-called "strong dollar policy" is really all about is the United States’ rigging and artificially suppressing the gold price. President Bush is subtlety telling everyone the US will continue this policy and suppress the gold price as much as the US can. What else could he be saying? Apparently he wants the economic world to know the "strong dollar policy"/rigging of the gold price, set in serious motion by former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, is still a US policy. The problem for the US is there are growing numbers around the world who want this cheap gold the US and the rest of The Gold Cartel are foolishly dumping. These buyers thank the Bush Administration for their errant and short-sighted "strong dollar policy."

The dilemma for the US is it`s running out of enough physical to continue this scheme. Gold has been rallying for two years. The sinking of the dollar has followed gold’s move up. The Administration is petrified of a dollar rout as many of the leading political/financial market leaders in the world are predicting one in the very near future. The US wants a lower dollar to help the US jobs picture, but not a collapse which could devastate our financial markets. Therefore, they seem to be in panic mode these days to crush gold, to let the financial world be wary of betting against the dollar to any significant degree.

Fine and dandy, however, it won’t work. The jig is up. They have been found out. Today’s late gold comeback is evidence they have been found out. The Stalker and many other shrewd and HUGE cash buyers are waiting for them these days and scooping up cheap gold when The Gold Cartel pulls one of their raids. Naturally, the big locals trade with the Goldmans and Morgans. When they fail to finish gold off, like what happened today, these big locals are forced to cover and take gold back up on the close.

This is the sort of gold market commentary that is so grating to me and exemplifies why so few people understand what the gold price is doing and why:

Reuters

COMEX gold falls to 7-week low on upbeat U.S. data
Friday October 17, 10:16 am ET

NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The benchmark COMEX gold contract tumbled to a 7-week low Friday after two U.S. economic reports bolstered confidence in the expansion, reducing demand for safe-havens like bullion.
Gold was already coming off before reports hit the wires that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose to 89.4 in October, besting the 88 reading expected on Wall Street and September`s 87.7. Earlier upbeat U.S. September Housing starts data undermined gold by lifting the dollar.
At 1008 EDT December gold (0#GC was down $3.10 at $370.10 an ounce. It traded from $376.50 to $366.50, its lowest since Aug 27, taking out the $367 low hit in a violent shakeout two weeks ago after the first positive payrolls number in 8 months..

-END-

Today’s consumer sentiment number and the positive payroll number of two weeks ago DO NOT remotely explain a $13+ and $7 attack on the gold price. On the same sentiment number, the dollar closed lower today at 92.60, down .30, after hitting a 93.30 high. The dollar fell against every major currency. The euro ended the day at 116.56, up .74. The stock market took a decent hit. The President was dealt a blow as the Senate is requesting part of the Iraqi aid package be in the form of a loan. None of this explains the assault on gold by a member of The Gold Cartel. Knowing a cabal exists out there manipulating the gold price explains it all.

The commentary from this evening`s Richard Russell is more l…

At the same time gold appears to be struggling. As I write 15 minutes after the opening this morning, December gold is down 5.70, and I have to wonder whether gold is being manipulated by the Fed or by an administration that is attempting to hide what they are doing -- and what they are doing, of course, is creating inflation.

Manipulation can only succeed for a limited period of time, and then the true forces will overwhelm the manipulators. Thus, we watch and wait for the true fundamental forces to express themselves.....

(P 2-3)

“Dec. gold hit a lot of stops on the downside this morning, …

-END-

Now that`s telling it like it was!

The gold open interest rose 1703 contracts to 246,120.

Silver continues to meander. The good news is buying is showing up at higher levels on the breaks. Today’s low was $4.86, reached during the early gold debacle.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday, October 17, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.72, PM $9.35, with world gold at $371.60 and $370.70. Far above legal import point: this goes for all the Indian cities Reuters covers. The Bombay Stock Exchange closed at another 39 month high today: up 3.4% on the week: the largest single gold buyer in the world is feeling prosperous.

Japan at first glance remained supremely indifferent. On the equivalent of 20,951 Comex lots (up 6% from Thursday) TOCOM open interest slipped by a metal volume equal to 201 Comex lots: the active contract was unchanged, and $US gold was down 90c at the close. The Nikkei hit a 16 month high, but in a country with only a trace of the gold buying propensities of India, this is probably more of a distraction to speculators than a boost to investment appetite. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 43,000.)

Bloomberg, very unusually carrying a gold positive story, gives reason to modify this view a little. A story quotes the leading Japanese bullion retailer Tanaka Kikinzoku reporting that bullion sales in the first two weeks of October rose 80% over "this year’s monthly average", and predicting, less importantly, that sales of the Austrian Philharmonic gold coin look set to reach a record for the year. The reasons the story advances seem outdated: Japanese financial structure concerns have not really increased lately. More likely, the yen-appreciation-accentuated drop in the yen gold price this month to levels seen only briefly in over a year is a more plausible explanation: and possibly a durable one too. Japanese physical buyers of precious metals have a good record as bottom fishers (unlike the futures traders).

See:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aAMy1K… .

Yesterday, despite the general negativism of most dealer commentators, gold crept stealthily upwards in NY hours – and the gold shares were positively uppity- until, as Standard London puts it:

"The rally stalled and gold dropped sharply to its day-low as a bunch of bearish news hit the market. The Dow rallied briefly, the Dollar rebounded, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicated further strength in the U.S. economy and that there might not be a need to leave interest rates low.

TheBullionDesk.com refers to "heavy trade selling on the close" and Refco Research remarks dryly:

"It also doesn’t help gold to face some determined trade (and bank?) selling near 375.5 as we think it did on Thursday".

It appears a similar group went into action on the Comex opening today. Judging by the prices India was willing to pay earlier today with gold over $370, these operators will have to come up with a considerable amount of physical. And indeed the London PM fix, primarily a physical market, pushed gold back above $370 to $370.50, $3.80 of the low.

In gold, it once again appears, the bears do not wait for macro events to bring in their meals, but are always pro active.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ulfur]

>Don`t count on declining gold production

By: Tim Wood


Posted: 2003/10/16 Thu 20:00 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003


NEW YORK – It has been taken for granted that the current contraction in new mine gold production will continue and even accelerate. That seems unlikely in the current environment. The declinist view has been rationalised from the drought in exploration expenditure following the Bre-X scandal, high grading of mines to keep them afloat during low gold prices, old mines coming to the end of their lives, and, latterly, fears that sustained rand strength could put millions of South African ounces at risk.

Declinism was far from the agenda at the recent Denver Gold Forum though. Company after company presentation detailed medium- and long-term growth prospects. Whilst it is true that there were no new deposits to speak of, the higher gold price has breathed life into tens of projects once left to gather dust.

This fact was noted previously by World Gold editor, Paul Burton, who warned earlier this year gold prices holding above $350 an ounce raises the prospect of production from known, but still undeveloped, deposits.

Not only do many of these deposits boast quantified resources, but they’ve had a lot of permitting and engineering work done on them that will require little more than confirmatory feasibility investigations.

Consequently, the expectations of long lead times to new production are probably misplaced – many weighty projects can and will be brought to account in well under five years. There will be a modest slump in newly mined gold, but it will probably last only until late 2005 when several large new mines will be commissioned or close to it.



By our estimate, there are at least half a billion ounces of known gold resources that lie within “economic reach” at these gold prices, which is worth six years of new gold supply and around one third of the global gold reserves documented by the US Geological Survey. Not all of those ounces can be developed concurrently, but it illustrates that there is by no means a meaningful shortage of new gold. Indeed, several deposits have two and three decades of effort and knowledge invested in them. With recent technology advances and current gold prices, production decisions are not far away.

Another important factor is politics. The Cold War dividend is still paying out in the form of easier access to previously under or inadequately explored areas. There is the renewed scramble for Russian assets which are a blend of known deposits that have been poorly defined and/or exploited. With the latest expertise, many stale Russian projects are newly attractive.

Along with Russia’s promising Far East, there are very prospective sites opening up in China and Mongolia, whilst South East Asia is proving a selective winner for the mostly Australian explorers active there.

African exploration has also taken off incredibly in recent years, but is nowhere near saturation yet. With fewer civil wars and a decade of post Cold War adjustment, explorers are attacking dormant projects with new technology and intensive effort. At the same time, swathes of the continent have never even had rudimentary exploration.

The results have been impressive if small, but the surface has barely been scratched when you consider just what Eritrea, Ghana and Mali have yielded so far. With Congo’s massive indicated mineral wealth it is merely a question of time and sensibility before deposits there are finally unlocked.

When you consider that so may of the top gold projects are well defined, but nearly all are in countries with strong historical mining cultures and activity, then it stands to reason that similar whopper deposits await discovery in areas that haven’t had a fraction of the exploration attention. That doesn’t presume gold is distributed “fairly” or evenly, only that recent discoveries create reasonable potential for something much bigger.

If you’re betting on a prolonged or permanent downshift in new gold mine production, the odds are against you. The miners know where years and years of gold supply exists and they can extract it fairly quickly at the right prices. The price looks as right as it can for many of those projects.


http://www.mips1.net/mgan.nsf/UNID/TWOD-5SE35A?OpenDocument

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (9722, down 70) and the DOG (1912, down 38) finally sold off, but there was no sign of any serious selling. Bothersome to bulls has to be the fact the US stock market failed to gain late in the week on relatively good economic news. P/E ratios are sky high. The sell-off ought to pick up some Big Mo next week.

The whisper number for the Michigan Consumer Confidence number was 92. The 89.4 number was actually a disappointment.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $3.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today bringing the repo pool further down to $27.24 Billion and continuing to lower the 30-day moving average. The new down trend is un mistakable and the DOW is down a bit this AM. It needs to come further down to meet its own 30-day MA so we can expect more low Fed repo days.

It will be interesting to see if the Fed wants the DOW to level off here for a while or whether it wishes the DOW to keep nudging downward through the 30-day MA.

This morning`s temporary down spike in gold was very odd in that it was not timed to the PM fix, something that has become a hallmark of cartel tactics in the past. Perhaps someone in JP Morgan`s "Magnificent Eight" commodities trading gang pressed the wrong button?

Mike

First California, now Pittsburgh:

Pittsburgh Talks Bankruptcy, Gets Rating Body Slam: Joe Mysak

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- If a municipality wants to maintain investment-grade credit ratings, it had better not threaten to enter bankruptcy.

The city of Pittsburgh, which in 1985 was named the No. 1 place to live in the U.S. by the Rand McNally Places Rated Almanac, has been doing just that lately. Standard & Poor`s responded this week, by cutting the city`s rating to BB from A-.

That`s a five-level cut, Standard & Poor`s equivalent of a body slam. Pittsburgh, the second-largest city in Pennsylvania, has a new distinction. It is the only city with a Major League Baseball team and a junk credit rating.

What caught the rating company`s eye was the mention of bankruptcy in the city`s comprehensive annual financial report, dated Aug. 15 and received by repositories late last month.

``The City`s cash balances are currently projected to be suf…

The paragraph continues, ``If the City should fail to receive additional taxing authority from the Commonwealth and subsequently fails to receive the necessary approval from City Council for tax increases and service cuts, the City would then consider a number of options, including those available under Chapter 9 of the Federal Bankruptcy Code and the Pennsylvania Municipalities Financial Recovery Act.``… -END-

This story made the rounds on the internet and exemplifies why the US is so concerned about a soaring gold price:

Templeton feeling bearish!

The legendary investor predicts the U.S. dollar will lose 40…
By MICHAEL BRAGA

[e-mail]


SARASOTA -- Legendary investor Sir John Templeton is worried about the U.S. economy and stock market.

Gary Moore, a Sarasota investment adviser who met with Templeton last week in the Bahamas, says Sir John has never been more bearish.

Moore says Templeton is telling investors to avoid U.S. stoc…

-END-

The following commentaries by Craig Harris and then by Bill King hit the spot regarding what is going on out there in financial land:

HCM DAILY CLIENT MARKET LETTER


……Speaking of charts...I was looking at an interesting chart of the 30 day moving average of the repo pool total versus the DOW. One thing is becoming clearer and clearer to me, and that is that stock investing as per the Graham, Buffet, Lynch (Templeton) method is a dying art because of the increase in financial engineering. In my opinion, if you look at the big picture...more and more we`re just talking about flows of funds. The Financial engineers have several firehoses...the hoses are full of money and the markets are increasingly being governed by the output of those hoses. If you want shares to go higher, then print money and point the hose at the stock market. It isn`t about value investing, it`s about how much money does it take to make the market do what you want it to. In this most recent "crisis", the financial engineers are using very large firehoses with direct nozzles. They averted a crisis...for now, but the problem with all of this is that as I`ve been discussing here lately, then the current relationships become engineered relationships rather than relationships that are based on sound investment theory and natural forces.

The relationships have become based on flows of funds...which is like heaven for the financial engineers. I`m sure their ultimate idea would be to have a huge global block diagram which dictates where funds need to be pointed to achieve any desired result. here`s also another monkey in the wrench which Holmes inadvertently discussed....

"Rothschild’s David Holmes noted that gold as a share of Cen…

It certainly can`t. Here`s the rub. For all of this engineering to work, there has to be an anchor somewhere to intrinsic value. The central banks are losing their ability to control the price of gold because they are increasingly running out of the real stuff. That`s a really big, really basic problem, and one I think that hasn`t been sufficiently addressed by anyone in the financial engineering community for one basic reason...they are all concerned only with what happens during their tenure.

So what I`m saying is that when market relationships become based on flows of funds rather than intrinsic value, and when the engineers have lost their link to intrinsic value...then huge problems could result and I believe that is without question where we are headed. In other words, they are engineering themselves into a corner. In the late 90`s we had the biggest equity mania in the history of the world...clearly an unsustainable path...but the US became dependent on it. Now, in a frantic attempt to re inflate the bubble, we have a lower level of economic activity, lower share values, and interest rates so low that they are in effect, giving money away. I hope I`m making my point here...the point being that they are painting themselves into a corner.

One finger after another goes into the dike to maintain an a…

http://www.harriscapitalmanagement.com

-END-

The King Report

M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Friday October 17, 2003 – Issue 2783
"Independent View of the News"

….Again bulls trumpeted the drop in Jobless without noting that ex-seasonal adjustments, jobless claims actually rose 25, 191. If everyone in the US lost their jobs and remained that way for a year, jobless claims would collapse and employment would soar due to seasonal adjustments, even though no one is working. The adjustment process is that stupid, convoluted and misleading.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

And now for the nauseatingly mendacious CPI - The US government says healthcare costs are up only 4% y/y and prescription drugs 3.1%. This is so ridiculous it’s hard to comment. The latest strikes, labor-management turmoil and executive angst is mostly due to mushrooming healthcare costs…Housing costs are up only 2.4% y/y. Food costs are only up 2.4% even though the CRB is up 7% y/y. Cattle prices are up over 30%, but in the make-believe theoretical world of government economic statisticians, they omit ‘spikes’ in prices or substitute an inferior product because they believe consumers will do that (hamburger instead of steak, Mets instead of Yankees).

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/news.release/cpi.txt

-END-

Heard on the London grapevine:

"..thought to let you know this before you got in to somethi…
Randall

Thanks to so many Café members who volunteered to translate the Dutch Central Bank gold article from Dutch into English for Mike Bolser. Turns out one of our Café members, Mira Yamoka, used to be a Dutch translator. Her effort is much appreciated. Here it is:

For Four Goldbars A Nice House

By H.de Boer

Amsterdam – The employee at the Nederlandsche Bank had anticipated the question, given the speed with which the answer came out of his mouth. How much a goldbar is worth, a reporter wants to know from time to time. "For four of these bars you could have a nice free-standing house in town."

In the cellars of the "Bank of Banks", its not only gold that glitters. Endless boxes of banknotes – good for millions of guilders – take up the most room deep under the ground. Many large bills, hardly any smaller ones. And also Euro bills, but these must wait for almost a year.

A visit to the gold and money safe is an unusual event, tells Cees Glorie, one of the security guards with the DNB. "Given the security risks we can’t start giving tours to tourists" If they did so, they would have a popular attraction. Money and goud are intriguing. Fits perfectly in the line of bungee jumping, survivals and a game of paintball.

For the press, an exception was made during a seminar about the arrival of the Euro. Before making the way to the shining gold and crisp banknotes, first all valuables need to be turned in. "Only money, sir, the cellphone has no value," says a security guard to me. He has never spoken with my boss.

Then through a gate, into the elevator and 12 meters down. Down another stairway awaits the door of the safe, surrounded by whitened concrete. Knocking is useless, pounding even less. (ed. This is quite ridiculous and untranslateable) One needs Codes, says Glorie. He knows half of the number sequence, his collegue knows the rest of the series. "Also for the security, you know." And sure enough, after some turning of the wheels, the steel moves – 10,000 kilos – supple in its motion. The thickness of the door, some 60 centimeters, may not be photographed. "You do understand."

Behind the racks, protected by some grillwork, shines the go…

Holland is in possession of even more. Here and there, spread out over the world lies more in stock, including in the United States, Great Britain, and Australia. Every now and then a portion of this asset is rebounded.

"Lift it up with two hands," he advises. So much power makes one over-confident. "Twenty kilo" says one "At least 30" says the radio correspondant Mis "It is precisely 12.5 kilo" according to the security guard.

With the banknotes there is daily activity. Money transports from out of the bunkers of the DNB occur daily with many horns, bells and guards out over the land, on the way to commercial banks. The gold on the other hand hardly ever leaves its place. It doesn’t even get dusted off. "With polishing you run the risk that eventually small pieces of gold will be lost" says a DNB employee. Indeed, we can’t have that.

-END-

Based on this article, the Dutch only have 60 tonnes left in their vaults. Of course, they can own other gold in vaults around the world like at the NY Fed. However, the real story is how much of the Dutch gold has actually been lent, or swapped out, and is not there anymore. It’s gone.

Full circle again. A key to GATA’s arguments about the gold …

It’s Dutch Café day. This is technical, but the Netherland’s Mihaly Schroth gives us background on how the Spanish may have contributed to this 10,000+ number:

Hi bill,

Here some information about the Spanish gold swaps. But first a part of the text of the Washington Agreement:

The Text of the Washington Agreement

http://www.gold.org/value/official/washington/WAGtext.html

The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.

But, there is nothing about goldswaps/goldrepo`s!

http://www.bde.es/informes/be/infanu/infanue.htm

ANNUAL REPORT 2002

http://www.bde.es/informes/be/infanu/infanue.htm

Page 143

II.2. NOTES ON THE BALANCE SHEET

1. Gold and gold receivables

The Banco de España’s gold holdings amount to €5,499.85 million, consisting of 16,828 million troy ounces of fine gold valued at €326.83 per ounce (7). This amount is €198.95 million higher than at end-2001, basically as a result of the rise in the market price of gold during the year (at end-2001 the price per ounce was €314.99), the number of ounces having remained unchanged during the year, except for slight differences arising from deposit and swap transactions.

Page 144

Increase in the outstanding gold swaps position at year-end …

ANNUAL REPORT 2001

Page 137

Sales of gold against foreign currency under repurchase agreements are recorded as off-balancesheet items, with no effect on the balance sheet. The foreign currency received by way of consideration is recorded on the assets side, with the obligation to repay it being recorded simultaneously on the liabilities side. Possible differences arising between gold delivered spot and that received forward are recorded as if there had been an independent outright sale or purchase, at the time of maturity of the transaction.

Page 141

Decline in the outstanding gold swaps position at year-end –140.46

ANNUAL REPORT 2000

Page 132

Decline in the outstanding gold swaps position at year-end –94.64

ANNUAL REPORT 1999

Page 122

finally, the increase in stocks of US dollars as a consequence of gold/dollar swaps, to the value of EUR 471.10 million.

We can see here that, goldswaps are increasing in 2002 for S…

greetz
mihaly

There was some concern about the price drop in High River Gold yesterday. Here is the story, one which shows the stress many of the South African gold producers are feeling due to cost pressures:

High River Gold shareholder sells out

High River Gold Mines Ltd HRG

Shares issued 105,512,404 Oct 16 close $1.88
Fri 17 Oct 2003 News Release
Mr. Don Whalen reports


HARMONY SELLS ITS SHAREHOLDING OF HIGH RIVER GOLD

On Thursday, Oct. 16, Harmony Gold Mining sold its 16.2-per-cent shareholding in High River Gold through a block trade for a price of $1.75 per share, a discount of 12.5 per cent from the previous day`s closing price of $2.00. The shares were placed with various institutions by BMO Nesbitt Burns of Toronto, Ont. Harmony previously stated that its decision to retain its investment in High River, as with all its strategic investments, depended on its assessment of whether it could add value to High River or gain control or significant influence over the company. Harmony`s board recently concluded these criteria could not be achieved in the short term and decided to sell its shareholding. –END-


Barrick Gold’s stock price and their performance remains DISMAL:

Barrick closing northern Ontario mine and scrapping 200 jobs

KIRKLAND LAKE, Ont. (CP) - Barrick Gold Corp. is winding down operations and cutting the 200 jobs at the Holt-McDermott mine outside this northern Ontario community.
About 40 workers will be let go in January, said company spokesman Vince Borg, and the other jobs will disappear as the year progresses. The mine`s gold reserves have been exhausted, Borg said. The mine was only expected to operate three years but has been active for 15, and the mine shaft had been deepened three times since it was opened. –END-

The gold shares gave up some ground after their recent run-up with the HUI dropping 5.59 to 200.61 and the XAU falling 2.17 to 91.86. Another mantra of The Gold Cartel is not to allow serious gold/gold share excitement. With the stock market due for a hit, they can’t have the gold shares attract too much investor interest.

Don’t know about you, but I am sick and tired of these silly…

Won’t be long before they are reeling again as the price of gold soars.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[superman6]

Für heute Nacht in SYD, bzw. Morgen
lege ich euch mal folgende Aktien
zur Beobachtung ans Hers:

Investika : Meldung soll Anfang dieser Woche
kommen.

Union Capital: Wer weiß was da los ist???

[ThaiGuru]

@ulfur

Posting #7153

Don`t count on declining gold production

Nur weil ein erklärter Gegner von GATA, wie Tim Wood, eine Aufstellung von neuen geplanten Goldproduktions Standorten, bei denen die Produktions anstehe aufführte, muss das nicht unbedingt heissen, dass seine Annahme, dass die Welt Goldproduktion auch wirklich ab 2005 merklich ansteigen werde.

Es gibt auch sehr viele Gold Minen, die kurz vor Ablauf ihres Produktionzyklus stehen, also bald komplet ausgebeutet sein werden, und die Produktion einstellen müssen, egal wo der Goldpreis steht.

Zudem hat Tim Wood die meisten Gold Produktionsstätten mit e…

Aussagen wie diese zu einer angeblichen substanziellen Gold Produktionerhöhung ab 2005, von Tim Wood, sind nicht sehr verlässlich, besonders nicht, weil er eine zusätzliche Nachfrage beim Gold als Krisen-, und Anlagemetal nicht einmal in Erwägung zieht, geschweige denn mit in seine Berechnungen zur Gold Versorgungsprognose mit einbezieht!

Verwundert mich bei Tim Wood aber nicht sehr.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Spieler0815]

Aktueller Marktbericht von Uwe Warmbein - stockmove.de - momentan frei für alle ...


03.42 Marktbericht vom 18.10.2003
Autor: Uwe Warmbein

Gier fraß Hirn - Die Rallye ist beendet

Offenbar zur Feier des Tages - oder aber ein Versehen von Herrn Warmbein ???

[voracon]

@ThaiGuru,

mir macht ein evtl. preisrückgang 2005 im moment keine sorgen

mich interessiert im moment eigentlich mehr, das aktuelle szenario

ich könnte mir auch gut vorstellen, daß bei einer grösseren goldpreis korrektur der erneute preisanstieg schlagartig erfolgt und manchen im regen stehen lässt

letztendlich hängt im moment alles am dollar, man könnte also fast auf währungen spekulieren


eine andere frage ist, ob generell minen, die in can$ notieren, zu bevorzugen sind, da der can$ auch gegen euro steigt und evtl gewinne bei minen, die in us$ notieren, wieder durch den währungsverlust wettgemacht werden

gruß voracon

[keepitshort]

@Spieler0815
#7157

vielen Dank für den Tipp

[superman6]

# 7155
UCL : Wer weiß was da los ist???

Hier die Antwort:

Kursanstiege auf breiter Front:


Handelsplätze

Börse Datum/Zeit Akt. Kurs Diff.%
Australien 20.10./07:45 0,04 +9,37%
Berlin-Bremen 20.10./10:16 0,019 +5,56%
XETRA 15.10./13:42 0,018 +50,00%
Frankfurt 20.10./10:32 0,019 +5,56%

[crashkommt]

Manfred welche Antwort soll das sein???


Fuer mich bist Du ein blinder Pusher,

ohne auch nur einen funken Ahnung


MfG

[superman6]

ja manfred ich muss dir sagen, crashkommt
der hat sie halt nicht alle wie ihr wisst.
Aber solche Spi.. muss es halt immer
geben.

[jeffery2]

...und immer schön den Chart anschauen!
J2

[crashkommt]

Ja Manfredo jetzt fuehrst Du auch noch Selbstgespraeche

Wir werden Dich bald in Haar einliefern,

wenn Du nicht bald aufhoerst zu spekulieren.


MfG

[superman6]

Anvil auf neuem ATH.

[superman6]

diser crashpi.... dürfte bei Emperor alles
in den Sand gesetzt haben.

Du armer Wicht.

[crashkommt]

historischer Thread EMPEROR MINES LTD. von Manfred der von nichts neh Ahnung hat.

@ Manfred

hallo ist schon richtig das Emperor einen
wahnsinns Hebel hat. Einzige Grund
warum Emperor noch nicht explodiert ist
Emperor braucht einen Goldpreis von weit
über 300 USD.


Sollte der Goldpreis jedoch wieder die Reise
nach Süden antreten Richtung 250 USD und dort
verharren siehts schlecht aus mit Emperor,
denke es könnte dann auch ein Totalverlust werden.


Tasgold: Morgen 9.4.2003 geht es in SYD los 10 manfred1_I 16.09.03 20:48:34


SPINIFEX >>>Die Spekulation ist wieder da<<< 20 manfred1_I 15.09.03 12:32:37


Menzies (1 Millionen Umsatz) vor Wiederentdeckung??? 28 manfred1_I 28.08.03 23:01:50


Dominion Mining "Start der Goldproduktion super" 12 manfred1_I 28.08.03 22:53:03


St. Barbara (851747) Topniveau und Chart anschauen 51 manfred1_I 28.08.03 20:50:47


Jumbo steigt über 70 %, Online-Casino??? 47 manfred1_I 24.08.03 23:17:27

Bill Gates sollte mal mit den Leuten von Jumbo WKN 850269 sprechen 17 manfred1_I 22.08.03 19:44:03

Tasgold -das wird eine heisse Sache-

Spinifex jetzt Übernahmekandidat 51 manfred1_I 12.08.03 21:36

Nur ein kleiner Auszug dieses Nichtskoenners Manfredo der Grosse


MfG

[jeffery2]

Ohne Striet is Dried!
J2

[crashkommt]

#11 von manfred1_I 12.04.02 21:03:41 Beitrag Nr.: 6.105.316 6105316
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | historischer Thread EMPEROR MINES LTD.

mit dem Kursverlauf muss man bei Emperor Mines
bisher zufrieden sein.
Sollte der Goldpreis auf 320 oder höher steigen,
dann geht es richtig rund bei Emperor.


Manfredo, was ist aus Deiner fundierten Aussage geworden der Goldpreis steht akt bei 374 US$ wo bitte bleibt die Explosion????


Hier scheint es sich um einen weiteren Blindgaenger zu handel.
Ihr zwei passt gut zusammen, der Blindgaenger und Du.


MfG

[ThaiGuru]

Mist, jetzt habe ich den falschen Thread erwischt.

Bin schon wieder draussen!

[crashkommt]

Nein Thai,

Manfredo der Blinde und meine Wenigkeit haben sich verirrt


Sorry


MfG

[Magor]

.
nee Thai, Du warst hier schon richtig,
die Freigänger werden schon wieder Ruhe geben ...
laß sie sich erst austoben ...

Frei nach dem Dicken:
Blamiere sich jeder so gut er nur kann ...

[ThaiGuru]

Nee, muss doch mein Thread sein.

Wollte eigentlich nur nachschauen, ob etwas über den letzte Woche von Mahendra angekündigten grossen Crash am Dow drinsteht.

Jetzt gibt`s hier sogar einen SuperCrash!

Aber diesen Disput, kann doch Mahendra wohl nicht mit seiner Voraussage gemeint haben?

***

Der Dollar tendiert weiter schwach, der Dow befindet sich zur Zeit dieses Posting ganz wenig im Plus, und Gold, und Silber steigen wieder. Silber hatte sogar die 5.- Dollar Marke heute intraday wieder für kurze Zeit geschafft.

Gold:



Silber:



Dollar:



DOW:

[jeffery2]

Hier ist der Link von Mahendrahttp://www.mahendraprophecy.com/home_flash_details.asp?home_…
eiert ja mächtig herum der Gute. Seine Fangemeinde hat ihm wohl tüchtig eingeheizt.
J2

[superman6]

Gold und Silber haben wieder die richtige
Richtung aufgenommen.
Schaut euch auch den Chart von Anvil mal an.

[ThaiGuru]

October 20 - Gold $373.50 up $2.20 - Silver $4.97 up 5 cents

Gold Holds Support Once Again

Many of us contemplate fording the difficult passages that w… Gail Sheehy ("Pathfinders")

After jawboning comments by Treasury Secretary Snow, the dollar rallied this morning to 92.99. Gold came in 50 cents lower, but quickly rallied to go up on the day, making new high after new high early on. Later, the dollar sold off a bit as the euro gained some positive momentum. The effect on gold was minimal.

Gold remains in a trading range, but there are some notable points to make:

*The two week composure period after the October 3rd $13+ an…

*The Gold Cartel blatantly attacked gold on two out of three of the last Friday’s. As gold has rallied back above key support at $370/$372, these assaults have FAILED thus far. This is important. It doesn’t take an Einstein to understand what happened to gold, who did it, and why. These are some of the most powerful financial market people in the world who tried to take gold down and they have not succeeded to date. This will encourage friends of The Stalker ("gold buying group") to step up to the plate and join the buying fray.

*The Gold Cartel has not won the day and taken gold back to $350 because the physical market is too strong and there are too many big buyers waiting to accumulate physical on spike sell-offs.

*There are no downside gaps to fill. Another breakaway gap should be in the offing this week.

*Note the stellar looking gold chart. $370 support is very obvious. Gold has based above and below this key level. If it breaks today’s high of $374.30, it will take out a pronounced downtrend:

[rl]http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3[/url]

*The gold open interest only fell 1311 contracts to 244,809 on Friday’s cabal induced downdraft. This tends to confirm the recent MIDAS gold analysis about strong hands taking the crooked ones on. (See James Turk’s corresponding comment below). The gold open interest should begin to build again.

*While the CRB (243.46, up .15) sold off from its highs, it still remains very firm. The metals have been particularly strong. Copper jumped 1.65 cents to 91.15 cents. October platinum closed at $741.20 per ounce.

*Silver seems to be "sold out." The black box specs have exited for the most part as the open interest dropped 30,000 off its high for the move. That open interest now stands at 88,800, rising 550 contracts on Friday. I suspect it will rise from here as silver takes out $5.

*The silver chart is a good one too, although different than gold. Silver continues to have higher lows on setbacks:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C3

*The Café Sentiment Indicator remains VERY bullish. It astonishes me how blasé investors are about the gold price and the potential for gold investments. The indicator has gone up and down the past couple of weeks from a 3 to a 6, hitting a 7 only briefly (like a day). This weekend it registered about a 3, AT BEST. When the gold price retreats, general interest in the gold sector evaporates. As is usually the case, the average investor fails to do his investing homework when he or she should. When gold rallies $20 from here and the gold stocks have shot up, the blasé ones will be all over The Café.

James Turk of http://www.goldmoney.com sent the following early today which sums up my thinking:

There were 3 important statements in the UBS commentary this morning:

Gold: COTR: The release of the gold COTR has managed to surprise us twice in a row - the net long position was unmoved at 14.3Moz in the week to 14 October - and the gross long positions fell by only 2 lacs to 17.75 million ounces.

View: Long liquidation continues to weigh upon gold, however, we continue to believe that this represents a short-term shake-out rather than a reversal of the positive trend in gold. Anecdotal evidence suggests that physical demand is recovering and some of the measures that we monitor to track whether gold is `cheap` or `expensive` are pointing towards `cheap` at the moment. Once the weight of liquidation eases, we expect gold to rally in both dollar and non-dollar terms.

Silver: COTR: In contrast to gold, the COTR data for silver shows that the sell-off in silver has been entirely driven by COMEX long liquidation.
unquote

UBS`s 2nd weekly surprise in a row can be explained by the presence of the `stalker`, which is what I suggested in my How Govts Manipulate the Market commentary a week ago - the longs are tenacious and not about to be shaken out. It means that the commercial shorts could get squeezed, as recently explained by Dan Norcini in his "Portrait of a Commercial Signal Failure" recently posted to the Cafe.

I think this battle will be resolved this week, and depends …

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[bum]

@jeffrey
danke fuer den mahendralink.hab herzlich gelacht

[Tippgeber1]

@all


Moneybee-Prognose: Eher guenstig…

Von Till Mansmann

Eher guenstig sieht MoneyBee die Aussichten fuer die naechsten beiden Wochen: Nach einer
kurzen Seitwaerts-Phase koennte es fuer die deutschen Leitindizes Dax und
MDax wieder voran gehen. Die US-Boersen DowJones und Nasdaq ziehen da
zeitlich vorneweg, bleiben in der Bewegung jedoch moderater. Grund dafuer
koennte auch sein, dass die Prognosen fuer den Euro gegen den Dollar leicht
fallend tendieren. Eine Situation, die immer wieder fuer den deutschen Markt
befluegelnd wirkt. Aus einem positiven internationalen Umfeld koennten so
belebende Impulse auf den deutschen Markt wirken.

Beim Blick in die Entscheidungsstrukturen der neuronalen Netze sieht man
weiterhin, dass teure Energie (Rohoel), eine teure Waehrung (Euro fuer den
europaeischen Wirtschaftsraum) und ein hoher Goldpreis die groessten
Gefahren fuer die Maerkte darstellen. Die Tendenz, dass sich die Maerkte
gegenseitig stuetzen, ist dagegen derzeit eher schwach ausgepraegt. Fuer den
Dax wird sogar im Augenblick angenommen, dass sich ein steigender
DowJones-Wert leicht negative auswirkt, wobei sich diese Tendenz
abzuschwaechen scheint.


Grüssels
Tippgeber


P.S.Mahendras Prognosen waren auch schon mal besser a little bit confused

[Magor]

Jeffery,
wieso eiert Mahendra?
Ist es nicht der DOW, der eiert?



demgegenüber hat dieser hier:



vielleicht seinen Weg gefunden!

Nicht nur, weil ich´s mir so sehr wünschte ...
aber ein kräftiger Schub, so gute 7-10 % sind irgendwie in der Pipeline : - ))

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

Es sieht gerade so aus als die Gold Pessimisten im Board heute wieder einmal mehr daneben gelegen haben!



Aber ich bin mir auch fast ganz sicher, dass sobald wir nächstens die 400.- Dollar pro Unze Gold ereichen werden, wiederum einige ängstlichen Gold Bugs im Board empfehlen, mann solle doch jetzt bitte Gewinne mitnehmen.

Viele Leser, und leider auch einige User scheinen immer noch nicht richtig verstanden zu haben was sie eigentlich besitzen, wenn sie physisches Gold kaufen, oder Gold, und auch Silber Aktien.

Wer Gold und Silber Aktien kauft, und wirklich glauben sollte, dass ein Anstieg um 100% viel sei, hat nichts richtig verstanden von dem was auf uns Gold Bugs noch zu kommen wird. Beim Gold Preis ist es genau das selbe. Seit ich hier schreibe gab, und gibt es immer wieder User die leider glaubten, und auch heute zum Teil noch glauben, Gold hätte keine richtige Chance zu steigen. Mit Richtig steigen meine ich einige hundert Dollars, und nicht nur 10.-, oder 20.- Dollar.

Wenn ich mich recht erinnere hatten doch noch vor kurzer Zeit, etwa vor 8 Wochen, selbst einige gestandene Gold Bugs BEMA Gold ab 2.10 Dollar pro Aktie zum Verkauf empfohlen. Ich habe damals geschrieben, dass es ein fehler sei diese Aktie rauszuhauen, und die Entwicklung hat mir Recht gegeben. BEMA Gold ist innerhalb von nur 2 Monaten um weitere 50% gestiegen, nachdem leider viele geglaubt haben Kasse machen zu müssen.

Bin mir auch fast sicher, dass diejenigen die BEMA Gold vor einigen Wochen verkauft haben ihren Entschluss jetzt vermutlich etwas bereuen werden. Und um es gleich ganz klar zu sagen, ich werde die BEMA Gold auch nicht heute verkaufen, weil sie noch viel mehr Preis Potential besitzt, als es sich die meisten Leser hier im Board jetzt vorstellen können.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

BEMA Gold hat heute wiederum ein weiteres 52 Wochen Hoch mit 3.21 Dollar pro Aktie erreicht, und steht jetzt gerade immerhin noch bei US 3.14$!

[jeffery2]

@magor, so habe ich seinen Bericht gelesen.
Nicht so toll finde ich, dass ausschliesslich die Zockerpapiere bei den GM den Ton angeben. Grundsätzlich bleibe ich bullish, vor allem für den Ohm Krüger und Co, der HUI hat immernoch die Chance aufs Doppeltop. Die LeaseRates haben den Anstieg gestern signalisiert, beruhigen sich aber deutlich.
J2

[superman6]

Die 400 Dollar sind jetzt greifbar nahe.

[ThaiGuru]

Hier noch eine Meldung zu BEMA Gold`s Russland Projekt Kupol!



http://www.minesite.com/archives/news_archive/2003/oct-2003/…

Snipit:

Kupol hosts a large epithermal gold and silver vein system that is up to 30 metres wide with significant values over a true width of up to 15 metres and Canaccord believes that it has all the earmarks of a world class deposit. The latest drilling results confirmed the continuing high grade gold mineralization over 3.1 kilometres of drilled strike length and to a depth of at least 300 metres. Grades as high as 35.56 g/t gold and 865.51 g/t silver over 9.6 metres were encountered.

Opinion is hardening that this may be a 10 million ounce deposit. More will be known in January when an initial resource estimate is published. It would then be possible to move to pre-feasibility in short order and on to a bankable feasibility study within 12 months.

Obviously it will be a low cost open pit operation and Clive…

It is difficult to find a simpler and better story than that, so more is the pity that Mr Johnson chose not to let his London team explain it to the Minesite audience. It would have also given them a chance to introduce themselves.

[ThaiGuru]

Wer von diesen Warrants besitzt, sollte nicht vergessen diese auch rechtzeitig in Kinross Aktien umzutauschen.

Es lohnt sich!!!!

Für 5.77 Warrants gibt es 1 Kinross Aktie!

5.77 x 0.90 = 5.…



http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031021/215919_1.html

Press Release Source: Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross And Echo Bay Announce Expiry Of Echo Bay`s Warrants
Tuesday October 21, 2:36 pm ET

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 2003--Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX - K; NYSE - KGC) ("Kinross") and Echo Bay Mines Ltd. (TSX and AMEX - ECO.WT) ("Echo Bay") wish to confirm that Echo Bay`s common share purchase warrants (the "Warrants") issued on May 17, 2002, will expire on November 14, 2003 in accordance with their terms. On January 31, 2003, Echo Bay became a wholly owned subsidiary of Kinross. Each Warrant is exercisable for 0.1733 of a common share of Kinross at an exercise price of US$0.90 for each Warrant so exercised.

The Warrants may be exercised at any time on or before 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on November 14, 2003. To exercise the Warrants, certificates should be submitted to Computershare Trust Company of Canada ("Computershare") along with payment for the full exercise price made payable to Echo Bay Mines Ltd. For further information regarding the Warrant exercise procedure refer to the Warrant Indenture or contact Computershare at 1-800-564-6253.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Kinross Gold Corporation
Robert M. Buchan, 416-365-5650
or
Gordon A. McCreary, 416-365-5132
or
Investor Relations:
Carl B. Hansen, 416-365-5673
[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Wer diese Blue Chip Dividenden Gold Aktie
noch nicht besitzt, der wird wohl auch zukünftig etwas verpassen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031021/216164_1.html

Press Release Source: Goldcorp Inc.


Goldcorp Inc.: 3rd Quarter 2003 Results
Tuesday October 21, 9:56 pm ET

EARNINGS UP 30% TO AN ALL-TIME HIGH!


TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 2003-- SHAREHOLDERS` EQUITY INCREASED BY 29% ($102.4 MILLION) YEAR TO DATE ONE OF RED LAKE MINE`S STRONGEST QUARTERS

MORE GOLD THAN THE BANK OF CANADA

(all dollar amounts in US$)
GOLDCORP INC. (GG: NYSE; G:TSX) is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2003. The most significant events are listed below.

Highest Earnings Ever Achieved

Quarterly earnings per share increased by 30% (compared to Q3, 2002) to $0.13/share.
Nine-month Earnings ended Sept. 30, 2003 increased 19% (compared with 2002) to $0.31/share.
Strong Financials

Shareholders` Equity (at Sept. 30, 2003) increased 29% (compared with Dec. 31, 2002).
The Market Value (at Sept. 30, 2003) of Liquid Treasury Assets (cash, bullion and securities) increased in the quarter by $28 million to $381 million.
Q3 key financial ratios remained strong: Gross Operating margin of 62.4%; Net Profit margin of 44.0%; and Return on Invested Capital of 22.3%.
Gold Bullion holdings grew by 9% to 8.3 tonnes or 266,730 ounces. Goldcorp owns over 30% more gold than the Bank of Canada.

Red Lake on Target

Mine Expansion on schedule and on budget.
2nd highest quarterly gold production ever achieved: 143,899 ounces in Q3, 2003.
FINANCIAL RESULTS

3rd Quarter Ended September 30, 2003

Earnings increased 30% to $24.6 million, or $0.13 per share,…

weiter...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031021/216164_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031021/minerals_australia_botswana_g…

Reuters

Australia`s Gallery eyes start to Botswana gold mine
Tuesday October 21, 10:54 pm ET

SYDNEY, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Australia-listed Gallery Gold Ltd said on Wednesday it will mine the first ounces from its Mupane gold mine in Botswana in late 2004.
Gallery said it started construction work this week on lode, which is projected by the company to yield on average more than 100,000 ounces of gold a year for at least five years.

Gallery holds 100 percent of the project, located near Francistown and costing $28.4 million to develop, though the Botswana government has an option to acquire a 15 percent stake, a company spokesman said.

In September, Gallery was granted a license by the government to mine at Mupane for 10 years.

Gallery, which merged with fellow Australian Spinifex Gold Ltd last week, traded eight percent firmer at A$32.5 cents at 12:54 p.m. (0254 GMT)

[ThaiGuru]

October 21- Gold $381 up $7.50 - Silver $5.04 up 7 cents

Morgan Stanley Cries "UNCLE" And Gold SOARS!!

"Enthusiasm is the yeast that makes your hopes shine to the …
-- Henry Ford

GO GATA!!

Like out of the perfect MIDAS script, gold shot right out of the box this morning, climbing $4 right from the get-go. We got our breakaway gap ($375.90 was the low) thanks to Morgan Stanley which surfaced as a MASSIVE buyer on the opening. Morgan Stanley was one of the major Gold Cartel cogs who bashed gold the past two weeks. As mentioned in this column recently, The Stalker and friends, along with a surging physical market, were in the process of stuffing the cabal.

From guesswork to sleuth work:

JUST IN 4:00 CDT – my source tells me THE STALKER was a big …

What I like best about today is gold made new highs after the initial surge, going up $6 and change while the dollar was still higher on the session. Later, after gold roared into new high ground, the dollar weakened and closed at 92.64, down only .09. Once again we see an example of a gold price increase leading the dollar down. The present administration fears a sharply rising gold price could lead to a dollar debacle. Therefore, they are doing what they can to keep the gold price from soaring. This is what the "strong dollar policy" is all about, even though the Administration is jawboning China and Japan to strengthen their currencies.

As oft-stated in this column, The Gold Cartel is in BIG trouble. Their ignominious failed attempts to devastate the gold price are an embarrassing defeat. Morgan Stanley knew it and it could be the reason they ran for hills, at least partially. It won’t be long before the other rats are forced to cry "UNCLE" too. Can’t happen fast enough for me.

Who really knows why Morgan Stanley went the other way on this one. Perhaps another big buyer (The Stalker) showed up and was going through them. That buyer may have spooked them into covering so aggressively. Or perhaps a management decision was made to exit an inevitable losing short-side trade? Only way we will have some idea is to watch how they trade in the days and weeks ahead. Today could have been a one-off event.

On the first gold pop, Goldman and Sachs and JP Morgan Chase blew everything they had at gold to keep it within their $6 rule parameters. On the late surge which took gold $8 higher, they were nowhere to be found. By the end of the day, the $6 rule of The Gold Cartel was violated, a good sign indicating a weakened cabal.

Gold remains one of the worst reported on and least understo…

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Fund buying reemerged in COMEX gold early Tuesday, lifting the metal above the $380 an ounce threshold for the first time since speculators 18 days ago were cashing in on its run to 7-year highs. –END-

It was not the funds. Oh well!

The gold open interest fell again yesterday to 243,680, down 1129. If Morgan Stanley was covering this morning, it could fall again, but that ought to be about it. It should rise sharply from here on in is as we take out $400.

How about that Café Sentiment Indicator! Worked again. It’s up to a 5 already after barely making a VERY bullish 3 this past weekend. Best buying signal I have ever used.

The gold chart is a beauty, a real classic. There ought to be REAL POWER behind the coming move. $417 here we come.

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

Nothing wrong with the silver chart either. Silver ought to make new highs in the weeks ahead. Funny enough, there is no gap in silver. It traded unchanged today even as gold soared. The silver liquidation is over. Yesterday’s open interest rose 2371 contracts to 91,171. It should have gone up nicely today too.

Silver:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C3

***

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, October 21, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.79, PM $7.29, with world gold at $374 and $374.90. Ample for legal imports. Reuters carries a story today discussing the revival of physical offtake in the Far East, citing higher premiums in Hong Kong and Singapore for 400 oz bars (jewelers’ raw material) and reporting that the recent annual gold fair in the Indonesian city of Surabaya saw gold purchases rise 33% above last year.

TOCOM was confused this morning by an abrupt strengthening of the yen, which was partially reversed by the end of trading. On slightly better aggregate volume of 27,921 Comex equivalent, the active contract rose 15 yen, open interest was up 1,348 Comex equivalent, but $US gold was virtually unchanged (+5c) from the NY close. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 35,000 contracts.)

Yesterday the bears were steadily retreating, with most observers acknowledging the role of increased physical offtake. Today, on the Comex opening, apparently some of the opportunistic shorts drawn in during Friday’s raid capitulated. With the broadening of the demand for physical, the bulls seem to have gained the initiative.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

It was a tale of two markets in the stock world. The DOW flopped 30 to 9748, but the DOG keeps barking its way towards 2000, closing at 1941, up another 16.

When will the chickens come home to roost?

US posts record budget gap

The US budget deficit for the most recent financial year has… –END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $4 Billion in repurchase agreements today Oct 21, 2003 against an expiration of $4.5 Billion. This action left the repo pool at $27.99 Billion, still below its 30-day MA.

The fed continues to signal through these repurchase agreement moves that it wants the DOW to reduce its growth trend line back down to its 30-day MA and possibly lower. The 30-day DOW MA is around 9580. At this hour (10:10 AM) the DOW is down a bit.

The larger question posed by the recent change in repo pool direction (or any direction change) is centered around the extent and duration of the Fed`s repo removal tactic. What is their "ideal" DOW trajectory. Why have a trajectory at all? Who attends the DOW trajectory meetings? Can the "members" be identified by a secret tie color? Perhaps a special lapel pin....certainly a double-secret hand shake.

We can only guess that the idea of a market governed only by the actions of buyers and sellers is a anathema to the Fed...that their world is threatened by free markets.

Gold supporters in 3-D

Simplistically, gold aficionados reside in three dimensions. In the first dimension, the neophyte dwells on the linear idea of government precious metals intervention and subsequently contemplates a gold investment of one degree or another.

Once the gold bug fully embraces the reality that the only force holding the price of gold down is official central bank selling, he or she can then enter the second dimension of today`s gold world--the large area where theoretical gold investment decisions are acted upon. In this dimension their questions center on the type and magnitude of their investments. Traditional 5% to 10% portfolio allocations give way to higher fractions. In the light of an inevitable gold price rise at some juncture, leveraged gold investments in the exploration domain no longer appear as risky. However, there is yet another dimension...

In the third, the gold supporter eventually comes to appreciate the pent-ultimate political, institutional, cultural and geopolitical consequences of the logical endgame in any such governmental currency market intervention. The word used by a British banking expert schooled in macro economics to describe a run-away gold price, the word used to characterize the terrible effects on major trading house derivative books (he didn`t mention the effects of a massively diluted currency), the word used by Sir Eddie George during the Washington Agreement rising gold price "crisis" was "abyss".

Won`t we have an "abyss ahead", 2-minute warning? History doesn`t record many such warnings. Certainly not from the US press. At Pravda it was business as usual up until the day the former Soviet Union fell.
Mike

Gold demand article:

by Chung Jae-hong [e-mail]


Hong Kong is back door in gold trade

Exports of jewelry and precious metals, especially to China, is soaring.
According to an announcement by the Korea Customs Service yesterday, exports of jewelry and precious metals climbed by 142 percent to $576 million during the first nine months of this year compared to the same period of last year. Imports increased by 1 percent to $119 million during the same period.
Hong Kong, it appears, is the gateway for a thriving if gray market trade with China. Because of tariffs and fees that amount to about 70 percent on precious metals, direct exports to China are almost nonexistent. But Hong Kong’s duty-free status has led to a thriving trade with the former British colony. Exports grew from about $30 million in the first nine months of 2002 to $405 million in the same period of this year. Those exports accounted for 71 percent of Korea’s total exports of precious metals.
Korean precious metal companies participate in exhibitions in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Some said they planned to use Korean actors as spokespersons to enter the Chinese market, expecting that the Chinese tariff on such imports would be eased soon.

-END-

Some Café member commentary:

6 collar button broke?

Bill,

Jim Sinclair`s comments about the gold newsletter lemmings blindly following myopic trading strategy got me remembering a few past events. Just prior to the Washington Agreement newsletter writers referred to "massive resistance" at $300. The day of the agreement gold blasted through $300 and didn`t even stay there one minute on its way to $340. Last year they again beat to death "huge overhead resistance" at $330. Again, when it powered through it was another $60 ride above. I think once again followers of those newsletters will miss the sweetest profits of all if
they listen to the $400 resistance bull. What they should be telling subscribers is how they are salivating at the chance to flush massive short stops out and find the first $30 air pocket to $430. Gold won`t stay at $400 long, it may not stay for one Comex minute. Once it does reach $430, a pullback to $410 will look like the new "gift" zone. But there again the newsletters will probably advise sell, and not buy stops there. We are about $20 away from the cartel stretcher. I choose to salivate along with you and Jim at the chance to see it carried out.
Best wishes,
James McShirley

Houston’s Dan Norcini:

Simply superb action today. 367 has been confirmed as a strong double bottom. The shorts are in serious trouble and they know it judging by the type of price action we witnessed today. There is some panic buying going on and no doubt in my mind that some of the shorts are covering and the bulls are chasing them. It will be interesting to see the open interest totals tomorrow. Now , if we can get the fool gold advisors to keep their mouths shut and stop their idiotic, inept and losing selling advice to the poor patsies that actually pay them to lose money for them, this thing will take out $400 as easily as a hot nice cuts through butter.
Best,
Dan

My Stalker source also informed me the retail bullion coin m…


Right after the major debacle of October 3 and gold`s $13+ down day, I suggested the following:

10/6 Friday Was The Gold Cartel’s Waterloo

Friday was truly an extraordinary day in the history of the gold market. Volume on the Comex might have been the second highest ever (now revised lower). As time goes by, I believe Friday will go down as The Gold Cartel’s Waterloo. It clearly showed the gold price is manipulated and revealed how pathetically desperate the bankers are to keep gold from breaking through $400 per ounce. What the cabal did was draw attention to their plight. The way I see it they threw blood around bait in the ocean. It is only a matter of a short period of time before the SHARKS move in for the kill….. –END-

Does that ever look true two weeks later!

The gold shares were on fire as the HUI gained 10.99 to 212.64, a multi-year high close, and the XAU rose 4.53 to 96.65.

Golden Star Resources, my largest holding, led the HUI higher gaining 57 cents to close at $4.76, up nearly 14% and a new multi-year high. The Golden Star news keeps getting better and better. Production is going up and costs are going down. See today’s GSS press release in the Appendix. My price targets for Golden Star remain $21 for a first stop and then a rise to $30 per share as the gold price soars.

Today’s abrupt move is why I won’t trade the shares. This IS going to be THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime and many traders are going to find themselves out of position for the big part of the move.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!



10/21/2003 9:31:00 AM
Golden Star Expects Increase in 2003 Gold Production to 160,000 Ounces; Decrease in Cash Operating Cost to US$175/oz

DENVER, Oct 21, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Golden Star Resources Ltd. (GSS) (GSC) is pleased to announce that it expects its 2003 gold production from its Bogoso/Prestea mining operations in Ghana to total approximately 160,000 ounces, a 14% improvement over the 140,000 ounces previously anticipated. The Company also expects a 2003 cash operating cost(1) of approximately US$175 per ounce, a 5% improvement on the previously anticipated US$185 per ounce.

Commenting on the improvements, Peter Bradford, President and CEO of Golden Star said, "The upgrades are a result of continued positive performance of the Company`s mining operations at Bogoso/Prestea compared to earlier projections as well as better than expected tonnes and grade in the Plant-North pit at Prestea during the third quarter relative to the Company`s reserve model. In addition, the construction at our nearby Wassa project continues on target for commissioning and first gold production in the first quarter of 2004." Third quarter results will be announced on October 30th followed by a conference call and webcast on October 31st.

Golden Star has a significant property position on the Ashanti gold belt in Ghana including a 90% equity interest both in the Bogoso/Prestea open-pit mine, which is now expected to produce approximately 160,000 ounces in 2003 at a cash operating cost of about US$175 per ounce, and in the Wassa gold project, where Golden Star is currently developing and constructing a new mine and carbon in leach mill expected to reach first gold production in early 2004. The Company is actively exploring its significant land position in Ghana, including the majority owned Prestea underground gold mine which previously produced in excess of 9 million ounces and where the Company has an active exploration and drilling program. In addition, the Company has other gold exploration interests elsewhere in West Africa and in the Guiana Shield in South America. Golden Star has approximately 122 million common shares outstanding……..

Golden Star Resources Ltd.
Peter Bradford, 303-894-4613
Allan Marter, 303-894-4631
General Inquiries, 800-553-8436
www.gsr.com

The New York Times
Capacity glut keeps U.S. recovery jobless

Louis Uchitelle NYT
Tuesday, October 21, 2003

CINCINNATI Much of the public outcry over the failure of the United States to generate jobs has focused lately on a surge in the outsourcing of work to China and India. But another dynamic closer to home is weighing on job creation: the slow process of working through a glut of boom-era investment that continues to litter the economy with underused factories.

Procter Gamble, for example, has been dumping its weakest brands and the plants that produce them. At its Ivorydale industrial complex here, in Procter Gamble`s hometown, the company has sold factories that make Crisco shortening, Olean fat substitute and Ivory soap to three manufacturers, each with plans for squeezing more efficiency out of the operations. Hiring more workers is the last item on their agendas.

Not since the severe recession of the early 1980`s has capacity use in manufacturing stayed so low for so long, government data show. Production as a percentage of total capacity fell sharply in the aftermath of the last recession, which ended in 2001; and 23 months into the recovery, the upturn has still not come. On average, U.S. manufacturers are using less than 73 percent of their capacity.

Struggling to get rid of this costly glut, many companies continue to shut plants and lay off the workers, as Goodyear Tire Rubber is doing in Huntsville, Alabama, where it is closing a tire plant that employs 1,100 people. Or they have consolidated operations in one or two sites instead of a dozen, as Procter itself has done in the production of detergents, eliminating jobs in the process.

Other companies, notably U.S. automakers, have discounted prices and offered rebates to sustain production at respectable rates of capacity. This tactic squeezes profits and discourages hiring. And now some companies, Procter among them, are selling or leasing plants to others who gamble that they can make a profit by finding buyers for the excess output. Whatever success the newcomers have in this endeavor contributes to the sharply rising productivity growth rate, by increasing output without adding workers. This is a dynamic that prolongs the "jobless recovery."

"We overbuilt capacity - we hired too many people," Procter Gamble`s chairman, A.G. Lafley, said in a speech last spring.

The company invested in the 1990`s in anticipation of reaching $50 billion in annual sales, but Procter Gamble`s managers now find themselves rattling around in a company with $43.4 billion in sales. Cutting back, Lafley has focused resources on the largest, most profitable brands - Pampers diapers, for example - and freed cash from lesser operations. Procter still markets soap under brand names like Ivory, Old Spice, Camay and Olay.

Marketing, after all, is the company`s core competency, as Lafley puts it. But manufacturing the soap bars themselves in Cincinnati is not considered a good use of resources. It is certainly not the case in a plant operating at only 50 percent of capacity, as the factory here is.

"We could have consolidated the Ivorydale production at our bar soap factory in Mexico," said R. Keith Harrison Jr., the Procter Gamble vice president for product supply.

But the consolidation would have required a $40 million to $45 million investment, Harrison said. Instead, Procter sold the Ivorydale plant last spring to a 10-year-old company, Trillium Health Care Products, which specializes in operating soap factories. As part of the deal, Trillium supplies 235 million pounds, or about 105 million kilograms, of soap a year to Procter and hopes that it will eventually be able to sell another 235 million pounds elsewhere.

For Procter Gamble, the supply contract "offered the same cost structure that we could get if we consolidated in Mexico," minus the investment, Harrison said. But the arrangement forces Trillium to squeeze labor costs until it can line up more customers and benefit from the rising returns of a factory finally operating at its capacity.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[optim3]

moin thai guru

frunzt alles nach plan!

kleiner link für den überblick!

http://www.goldseiten.de/ansichten/warmbein-02.htm

[arobat]

Kennt irgendjemand diesen wert ??



257513
RELIANCE MINING LT

[saschmu1]

Mensch, das Gold geht ja voll ab nach oben.

Aber meint ihr nicht, das schreit geradezu danach, nochmal richtig eins drauf gekloppt zu bekommen vom Kartell?

Ich glaube nicht, dass die Macht gebrochen ist, und wann wäre ein besserer Zeitpunkt, die Bullen zu verschrecken, als jetzt wo die $410 quasi schon ins chart gezeichnet sind?

Mannomann, die haben genau erreicht was sie wollten. Mir sind bei dem Mega-Knüppel am 3.10. meine Zertis und damit 3/4 meines Kapitals wertlos verbrannt. Und natürlich habe ich mich nicht getraut, am Bottom wieder einzusteigen

[valueinvestor]

stay long in bgo and sea!

[Wavetrader]

#7192: Ich begreif es nicht: Wenn schon Trading, warum dann Zertifikate, wo doch jeder weiß, dass kurzfristig mit starken Schwankungen zu rechnen ist? Und wer Angst vorm Kartell hat, wieso wählt der dann so hohe Strikes?

Wenn ihr Optionsscheine bei niedriger Vola kauft, dann könnte ihr euer SL selbst bestimmen, und auch, ob es intraday greift oder erst am Ende des Tages usw., weil es manuell justierbar ist. Und ihr schwimmt nicht mit der Masse der SL, die bei den Zertifikaten fixiert sind.

Wenn z.B. die FED mal sagt, wie verkaufen all unser Gold bis 2007 und 3 Stunden später "war nur Spaß" hinterherkommt, dann ist jeder Turbozertifikate-Inhaber angeschmiert, jeder OS-Besitzer macht dann sogar durch die gestiegene Vola Gewinn.

Gerade bei der Goldentwicklung ist die Nachrichtenlage oft völlig unklar und Gerüchte wuchern um jede größere Bewegung, bis man klar sieht, haben die Zocker das Gold schon zwischenzeitlich sonstwo hingejagt.

Ein weiterer Nachteil des ständig Ausgeknockt-Werdens abgesehen von den Gebühren: Ihr seid gezwungen, den Markt ständig neu auf kurzfristige Sicht zu bewerten. Psychologisch ist das äußert schwierig, denn sowohl bei einem Einbruch als auch bei einer Explosion seid ihr ständig den Grundgefühlen Angst und Gier ausgesetzt, was zu Fehlentscheidungen führt - dem mittelfristigen OS-Besitzer hingegen werden weniger Fallen gestellt und so kann er auch weniger Fehler machen.

[saschmu1]

Zertifikate deshalb, weil ich im Ggs zu Optionsscheinen durchblicke, wie die Preise zustande kommen und z.b. entsprechende s/l setzen kann.
Hoher Hebel, weil ich nur sehr wenig Kapital einsetzten kann (jetzt nur noch ca. 1000 EUrotz) und damit erst mal die hohen Spreads und Gebühren decken muss, bevor ich in die Gewinnzone komme. Außerdem muss ich zugeben: Es war Gier, einen so hohen Hebel zu nehmen, es war dumm, keinen Stopploss zu setzten und ich hab es nicht anders verdient

[saschmu1]

@wavetrader:
welchen emittenten bevorzugst du bei os?
Gib mal bitte eine beispiel WKN für einen gold Long OS.
Vielen Dank!
saschmu

[bluemoons]

Silver -- the next big thing in the global markets?
Answering A Few Silver Questions

Douglas Kanarowski

1. Given the economic sluggishness worldwide and the emergence of gold in post 9/11, do you think that metals, particularly silver, stand a good chance to have an edge over paper money?

You have introduced far too many variables to answer this question as it is written. Therefore, I will only address the future of paper versus hard assets.

In economic issues, it is a good rule of thumb that when a trend has gone as far as it possibly can go in one direction, the only way it can go from there is in the opposite direction. As of 2002, there was not even one precious metals-backed paper currency in the entire world. Therefore, by definition, a move away from paper must begin. Cause and effect economic predictions are comparatively easy to make. What frustrates even the professionals is the TIMING of the expected event.

Enter the Islamic dinar (gold) and dirham (silver) coin. Taken the size of the Islamic world population and their significant financial resources, we now have in place a major force to precipitate the erosion of paper currencies. Also, and of equal importance, is the fact that on 7/8/2003, China opened their silver market to all of its citizens.

2. Do you think that the white metal has greater potential than gold in the precious metals market?

A great deal of the information about silver can be classified under two broad headings. One, how is silver LIKE gold? Two, how is silver DIFFERENT than gold? When it comes to a discussion of which metal can be expected to have the greatest percentage increase, it is within this second category where the answer will be found.

There are a great many ways that silver is different from gold and it would behoove the potential silver investor to investigate all of the differences. However, for purposes of this discussion, I will only list some of the most meaningful.

Gold is mined and accumulated. Silver is mined, consumed in micro amounts and then lost. Thus, the above ground stockpile of gold is GROWING, while the above ground stockpile of silver is SHRINKING. Presently there may be ten times more gold than silver in above ground stocks — a ratio that is widening by the day.

Gold has few meaningful industrial uses. Silver is perhaps the most versatile metal on the planet and it usually has no substitutes. As such, it is indispensable to modern civilizations.

Because gold`s price has been NEAR or ABOVE its production cost for so long, there are HUNDREDS of gold projects on the books. But, there are only TENS of silver projects due to the lengthy period of prices BELOW production costs.

Gold comes from gold mines, but 70 to 80% of our silver comes from by-product production: copper, lead, zinc and gold mines. Therefore, higher silver prices will not result in a proportional increase in production.

In general geologic terms, the deeper you go in a gold mine, the richer the grade. The deeper you go in a silver mine, the weaker the grade. Therefore, most of the world`s silver deposits that are found near surface have already been discovered and have been mined out.

Unlike gold, there are no known large inventories that can be dumped in the event of a run-away silver market.

What does this body of facts imply? That in some respects, silver is very different from gold — almost the opposite. And, silver will VASTLY outperform gold on a percentage basis over the next several years.

3. Despite huge supply deficit, why has silver not had the rally gold has experienced in the past 3 years?

There is indisputable evidence that both metals are being powerfully manipulated which has distorted and contained the price of both. Therefore, any technical analysis is UNRELIABLE and VERY DANGEROUS at this stage. Silver, by far, has the greatest manipulation both in "time" and "amount." In the late 1800s, the U.S. government began buying up all the excess to support the silver miners. Around 1945, the U.S. government was sitting on the largest silver hoard in the history of the world and began selling until they effectively ran out in late 2002. Pick either date and you will begin to see HOW LONG it has been since we have had a free-market, world silver price. This is very, very important. This MASSIVE, free market intervention has gone on for SO LONG that most of the world`s silver experts DON`T EVEN SEE IT ANYMORE! It`s like an elephant trying to hide in your house! Most experts expect $6-$12 silver because IF you ignore the elephant, that`s what it LOOKS LIKE it`s worth.

They`re wrong.

Silver leasing and trading of paper (commodity) silver entered the manipulation picture around 1990. Currently, on the NY COMEX, traders have sold short FAR MORE silver than is KNOWN TO EXIST in world stockpiles — by MULTIPLES!

Presently, the paper markets are much larger and more powerful than physical silver availability and they have neutralized the normal laws of supply and demand. It is my view that this paper market is the most significant, remaining force currently containing the price of silver. The game could end any minute, but MUST END when actual physical shortages and delivery problems manifest and large premiums are attached to physical.

4. Beyond supply and demand, according to you, what other factors attribute to silver as an investment avenue?

Novice investors think of the phenomenon of supply and demand as a simple mathematical equation. It is not. I have done my own study and have so far identified 85 different supply and demand scenario possibilities. The good news is that there are presently no scenarios on the horizon that can derail the oncoming silver bull market. The only thing that I could dream up would be for someone to develop an economical process to extract silver from seawater.

In my two essays, "70 Approaching Forces for Higher Silver Prices" and "What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver," I have outlined 73 approaching forces that haven`t yet happened, but are expected to significantly add to future silver demand. A thinking person might disagree with a few. But even if you only agree with 60 of the 73, you still end up with a GIANT number! The only example in history that comes to mind and approximates this phenomenon would be an argument put forth in about 1900 that after hundreds of years of world domination, the United States was going to soon displace England as THE world superpower. A long list of "approaching forces" could have been put forth to support the argument, but FEW would have believe and ALMOST NO ONE would have acted on something so remarkably easy to see in hindsight. Before this bull market fully runs its course, everyone will know why silver is a PRECIOUS metal.

5. According to you, what are the factors that affect the silver prices? What has kept silver prices so low? Do you foresee the rise in silver prices in the near future?

I think I have already covered the first two questions. As to the last question, all reliable inventory reports imply that known silver inventories will run out in days or months, but not years. You may find the word DAYS somewhat surprising. In this age of high finance, a relatively small amount of money could buy up all of the remaining supply with no advance warning.

This is important.

The key to this market will not be INDUSTRIAL demand as it is fairly constant. It will be INVESTOR DEMAND that theoretically has NO LIMITS. If you don`t think that investor demand will kick-in in a big way, you should lower your expectations for silver`s highest attained price.

6. Do you think that silver works more effectively than gold as an inflation hedge?

I think that it is an incorrect perception to think of gold and silver as inflation hedges. A true inflation hedge would go up in value by approximately the same percentage as inflation. And then it would HOLD AT THAT LEVEL when inflation went to zero (because prices are holding at that level). A study of metal prices shows FALLING metal prices when the rate of inflation decreases.

A more correct view would be to think of precious metals as an ANXIETY hedge. Inflation produces anxiety, but so does war, stock market crashes, bond defaults, civil unrest and a whole host of other possibilities. Clearly, the world seems to be moving into a period of greater and greater anxiety, which should help fuel a rise in all metals (gold, silver and platinum).

7. Any other issues you would like to comment upon?

To be successful at warfare, you usually need to adopt a different strategy for different enemies. Likewise, in the economic realm, each new investment "contest" is unique and a strategy for success should be worked out beforehand (along with an exit plan in case you are wrong). According to my work and the work of others, I think that once silver finally breaks lose from the grasp of the paper market, the price will move like nothing we have grown accustomed to seeing. In this scenario, most traditional investment strategies will utterly fail.

If the strategy of the silver investor is to wait for the BIG PRICE BREAKOUT, I think it will already be too late to buy a meaningful, sizeable physical investment position when the big move becomes visible. Those who are waiting to buy, but haven`t yet done so, are playing a game of standing as close as they possibly can to the railroad tracks without being hit by the passing train.

Silver mining stocks will always be available... at some price. But, if they are already charging ahead at 25% per day for days on end, will your current investment strategy get you into the market and get you the number of shares that you want to own? Probably not.

If it is not already obvious, I think that the winning strategy for this market is to buy your tickets now, take your seat and wait for the inevitable train ride of your life.



Douglas Kanarowski
[phone]
e-mail [e-mail]

21 October 2003
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/kanarowski102203.htm…

[ThaiGuru]

@arobat

Habe Dir einige Links zu Reliance Mining zusammengestellt,
vielleicht kannst Du Dich damit näher über diese Firma informieren. Ich selbst kenne ich diese Firma nicht näher, und kann Dir nicht viel weiterhelfen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.reliancemining.com.au/



http://www.goldseiten.de/minen/aus_REM.htm



http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/07/25/1059084206935.html

[Wavetrader]

saschmu, du hast Post.

[ThaiGuru]

@saschmu1

#7192

Es tut mir leid sowas von Dir zu vernehmen.

"Mannomann, die haben genau erreicht was sie wollten. Mir si…

Viel besser wäre es gewesen falls Du Dich entschlossen hättest anstelle Deiner risikoreichen Zertis auf`s Gold, ganz einfach Gold, oder Gold Aktien zu kaufen. Dann wären jetzt nicht 3/4 Deines eingesetzten Kapitals verbraten, wie Du geschrieben hast, sondern Du hättest Dein Kapital ohne Nervenkitzel und Verfallsdatum vermutlich sogar noch erhöhen können.

Es sieht zwar im Moment gerade so aus, als ob wir sehr schnell die 400.- Dollar Hürde beim Gold nehmen könnten. Dass wir die 400.- Dollar Hürde nehmen werden ist meiner Ansicht nach sogar fast sicher, doch den genauen Zeitpunkt den kann Dir niemand sagen. Das Gold Kartel wird sicher auch nicht tatenlos zuschauen. Darum sind solche Zertis wie Du sie liebevoll nennst, brandgefährlich, wenn das Gold Cabal wieder in Erscheinung tritt.

Du hast auch Recht, wenn Du vermutest, dass die Macht des Gold Cabals noch nicht ganz gebrochen ist. Genau darum empfehle ich in erster Linie physisches Gold zu kaufen, um dem Gold Cabal auch etwas aktiv ins Handwerk zu pfuschen, und zweitens Aktien von ungehedgten Goldminen zu kaufen.

Echtes Gold, und Gold Minen Aktien haben im Gegensatz zu Der…

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

October 22, 2003 (usagold.com)

NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $386.10 an ounce, up $5.10 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold continued to rise on more Fund, bullion bank and speculator buying spurred by on by a weaker U.S. dollar and equity markets. "We`re seeing buying coming in from funds and dealers. No one is quite sure what`s happening except that the downside was obviously an anomaly," said a floor broker. "If the dollar continues to weaken and if the condition for inflationary prices in raw commodity materials continue to move higher, this may attract more participants in the precious metals arena," said John Person, head financial analyst at Chicago-based Infinity Brokerage Services. "The gold market is attempting to test the $400 mark, which can happen certainly by years` end," Person said.

But one analyst noted that pressure is mounting for higher interest rates, a development that could counteract gold`s rise. Graham Leighton, a gold analyst at Societe Generale, pointed to the news on Wednesday that four members of the Bank of England`s nine-person policy committee voted to raise interest rates in the United Kingdom. "Expectations are that the U.K. could raise rates as early as the November or December meeting. This would be the first major central bank to raise rates since the easing cycle began three years ago," Leighton wrote in a report for clients. And if that marks the start of the end of low interest rates, and global recovery is imminent, "this would in turn spell disaster in the long run for gold and should help propel base metals to even loftier heights," Leighton said.

Tight supplies because of past underinvestment in mines, a weak dollar, and a pickup in demand in China and elsewhere are all driving the trend. Says Paul L. Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp.: "I believe we`re in the early stages of a significant bull market in commodities." For investors, the commodities surge may provide a profitable alternative to the stock markets. The gains have been brisk. For instance, the $360 million Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund, which invests in financial instruments tied to commodities, is up about 18% so far this year. Says the fund`s portfolio manager, Kevin Baum: "Commodities are offering protection at precisely the time investors most need it."

Yesterday Fund buying and overseas physical demand propelled COMEX gold above the $380 an ounce threshold for the first time in 18 days Tuesday, with a softer dollar having a late but constructive influence. "There was definitely somebody with an agenda," said Graham Leighton, metals vice president at Societe Generale. "We broke a good technical level when we went back up through the $380.00/$380.50 area, which should be fairly positive for prices in the short term." Dealers reported fund buying on the floor through a large futures commission merchant and one U.S. investment bank was a featured buyer, running the market through pre-placed buy orders. Gold has been moving up since Friday, when the contract fell to a 7-week low at $366.50. James Pogoda, a vice president at Mitsubishi International Corp., said gold broke out of a pennant technical pattern on the charts and took out resistance from the 40-day moving average at $377.80. Leighton said it could rally to $388.50 but warned that recent signs of faster growth in the U.S. economy posed a risk to the bullish outlook for gold.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $384.75 an ounce, up from $381.55 an ounce at the morning fixing. Market players said overall interest in commodities from funds seeking to diversify their portfolios was a crucial factor in gold`s performance. "Price moves are a lot more pronounced as there are a lot more people looking at the gold market," one trader said. Ingrid Sternby, an analyst at Barclays Capital Research, said in her daily briefing that after several weeks of paring back their exposure, funds were starting to rebuild long positions. John Reade, precious metals analyst with UBS Investment Bank, said he expected short-term moves to remain driven by foreign exchange markets. "But very strong gold equities indicate the breadth of interest in gold," he said in a daily report. "There was good physical buying around $370 and the market is hoping for increased demand from India with the Diwali celebrations this week," the trader said.

Platinum prices broke another 23-year high topping $40 an ounce. Speculators bought the metal in anticipation of Anglo Platinum, the world`s largest producer, cutting its planned mine expansion by a larger-than-expected amount because of the strong South African rand. Platinum prices are up almost 25 per cent this year on the back of strong Chinese jewellery demand and improving industrial demand. Anglo Platinum said at the start of this month it would provide details next month about its production expansion plans. Analysts interpret this as a veiled warning that the current production target of 3.5m ounces by 2006 could be cut by up to 20 per cent. Anglo Platinum produced 2.25m ounces of the metal last year. One London gold trader said speculative funds had been actively buying precious metals, following the recent dip in gold prices. He said they had been attracted to platinum because of the expected supply shortages over the next few years.


ASIA:

Spot gold rose $7.00 in Hong Kong to $381.65. Gold was trading a tad lower in Asian afternoon trade on Wednesday following some selling by Japanese investors as the dollar steadied against the yen and players waited for more leads from Europe. "There was light selling by Japanese investors but some people are bullish because COMEX closed above $380 last night," one bullion dealer in Hong Kong said. Fund buying, overseas physical demand and a softer dollar propelled COMEX gold above the $380 an ounce threshold for the first time in 18 days. Dealers pegged new resistance levels at $383 and $385 but the market was cautious as speculators still had hefty long positions on COMEX, making the precious metal vulnerable to another sell off. Key support was pegged at $375. "The currency market doesn`t move much, so most people just wait for the Europeans to enter the market later today. If there are some movements in euro, then gold will follow suit," said the Hong Kong dealer. The dollar steadied against the yen and the euro as the market looked around for new factors after the communique adopted at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum made no reference to currency policies.

N.M. Rothschild Australia said the next target for gold is n…[/u]

Westpac Banking Corp. said the metal "looks set to go a little higher near term," with US$385 on the agenda. Commonwealth bank of Australia said good demand for gold now seems to exist below $370, supporting its previously stated view that "a new, higher price range has been set for fabrication demand." It noted decent physical demand from India and the Middle East associated with religious events, and pre-Christmas inventory building by jewelers in many Western nations. The bank issues both short and medium-term tactical views on gold. On a short-term tactical view, the bank reckons gold can take out $400 in the next few months. But technically, gold`s inability to hold above $389 suggests its long rally "is at least waning, if not over," it said in a statement. Immediate resistance at $385 should hold, but then gold will decline to $375, before rising again, but only to $395, before likely declining again, it said.

The dollar steadied against the yen and the euro on Wednesday as the market looked around for new factors after the communique adopted at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum made no reference to currency policies. Operators had been waiting to see if President Bush, keen on getting support from U.S. manufacturers ahead of an election next year, would push APEC leaders to adopt a message criticizing China and Japan for holding their currencies down. "The market is now searching for new factors to trade on after APEC made no mention of forex," said Jun Kitazawa, assistant vice president of forex at Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo. One trader at a Japanese bank said he felt bullish news could quickly see the dollar move up as high as 112 yen. "People often say that exporters are waiting to sell above 110 yen and that that is capping the dollar`s rise but this is not true. Most exporters can`t make up their minds yet on whether to sell or not," he said. "What`s capping the rise is selling from short-term speculators. So I think a recovery to around 112 yen is possible if something pops up."

Trade was quiet, especially as the market was waiting for comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, who is due to tour three Chicago derivatives exchanges later in the day. "I expect he will avoid talking about U.S. interest rates, and instead reiterate the strong dollar policy and show optimism about the U.S. economy," said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. "But the market is cautious just in case he says something more market-moving." On Monday, the currency market was roiled after Snow was reported in The Times of London as saying that he thought interest rates would rise as the economy grew. The U.S. Treasury and the White House both issued statements saying Snow was not talking about official interest rate policy. The market is also waiting for minutes of the October meeting of the Bank of England`s Monetary Policy Committee due to be released later in the day.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

More U.S. National Guard and Reserve troops will be notified within weeks to serve in Iraq, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would not predict whether 133,000 troops now there might be reduced next year. Marine Corps Gen. Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said military leaders will advise Rumsfeld in two or three weeks on additional logistics and other support units that will be needed for rotation duty in Iraq. Pace and Rumsfeld, speaking at a Pentagon briefing, said no final decision has been made on how many additional Guard and Reserve troops will be called to active duty.

Thirty-two people were arrested Tuesday in the Shiite Muslim city of Karbala -- where an American lieutenant colonel was killed last week -- in a raid carried out by coalition troops and Iraqi police. Authorities were searching for a group that seized an Iraqi official last week. Weapons and ammunition were also seized in the raid, officials said. U.S. officials said only that the targets were "criminal elements" in the city. Polish authorities, who are in charge of security in that region, said more than 30 suspects in the killing of Lt. Col. Kim Orlando have been detained. U.S. troops also fired guns into the air to disperse a crowd at the Oil Ministry in Baghdad after a woman objected to a search by a sniffer dog. Meanwhile, in Fallujah -- where coalition troops have come under continuous attacks by insurgents and supposed Saddam Hussein loyalists -- troops of the 82nd Airborne Division were back on the streets, one day after one paratrooper was killed and six wounded in an ambush. Two civilians, including a Syrian truck driver, were also killed. Nine miles to the southwest of Fallujah, an American Humvee was ablaze after what local residents said was an attack by insurgents. U.S. troops were searching houses in the area.

Israeli forces swooped into the West Bank city where Yasser Arafat is based on Tuesday, encircled a mosque and fired weapons and tear gas to disperse hundreds of stone-throwers, witnesses said. Medical officials said at least 16 people were wounded, one critically, in the raid in Ramallah which lasted about four hours and came shortly after the Palestinian president asked for international help to stop what he called Israel`s "military madness." Arafat made his appeal after Israel killed 10 Palestinians -- most of them civilians, according to medical officials -- and wounded another 100 in five air strikes in Gaza on Monday.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday said the United States backs a strong dollar and believes that financial markets should play the leading role in setting currency rates. Snow also told reporters that he was encouraged that China appeared to be moving toward more flexibility for its pegged yuan currency. "We support a strong dollar with currency markets setting the fundamental exchange rates," he said in response to questions after touring the Chicago Board of Trade.

The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted gauge of all new mortgage applications edged up 0.5 percent to 652.8 for the week ended Oct. 17 from the prior week`s 649.6. The group`s index of demand for loans to purchase homes increased to 386.1, up 7.5 percent from previous week`s 359. Despite the uptick in mortgage rates, the U.S. housing market which has been crucial for the uneven U.S. economic recovery continued to show strength. This year`s record mortgage demand has also boosted the bottom lines of most banks and mortgage lenders. But economists are expecting that higher rates, although still near historically low levels, will eventually cool home sales and construction from their near record levels.

The ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Confidence index remained flat at -19 in the week ended Oct. 19, frozen between -16 and -21 for the past three months. The percentage of respondents who offered positive views on the national economy ticked up 1 point to 28 percent, offsetting a 1 point decline to 57 percent in the wider gauge`s personal finances measure. Positive ratings on the buying climate gauge, which measures whether the economy is conducive to making purchases, remained at 37 percent.

Margin debt, which is accumulated by investors who buy stocks with borrowed funds, climbed 4.1% last month, according to New York Stock Exchange data. The Big Board said Monday that debit balances in margin accounts of customers of NYSE-member securities firms rose to $155.87 billion in September from $ 149.66 billion in August. Somewhat uncharacteristically, the rise in margin debt came during a down month for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished September with a 1.5% loss, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.3%.

Much of the public outcry over the failure of the United States to generate jobs has focused lately on a surge in the outsourcing of work to China and India. But another dynamic closer to home is weighing on job creation: the slow process of working through a glut of boom-era investment that continues to litter the economy with underused factories. Not since the severe recession of the early 1980`s has capacity use in manufacturing stayed so low for so long, government data show. Production as a percentage of total capacity fell sharply in the aftermath of the last recession, which ended in 2001; and 23 months into the recovery, the upturn has still not come. On average, U.S. manufacturers are using less than 73 percent of their capacity.

China`s yuan currency is undervalued 15 to 20 percent, the respected Institute of International Economics said, and urged the United States to adopt a multilateral path in prodding Beijing to free up its exchange rate regime. Morris Goldstein, the Washington-based institute`s senior fellow, said those who had argued that the under valuation was 30 to 40 percent or more had taken the problem out of context. They often confuse China`s large bilateral trade surplus with the United States running at more than 100 billion dollars with its much smaller overall current account surplus of 35 billion dollars, he said. "It is the overall current and capital account positions that matter for judging the extent of the exchange rate misalignment not bilateral trade balances or components of the current and capital accounts," he said.


Comment:

Gold, silver, and platinum surged again on renewed investor interest as Funds and speculators reemerged in the precious metals markets. Buying was spurred on by signs of inflation, possible higher interest rates making buying bonds unattractive at current prices, and equities got slammed by disappointing earnings/losses (especially core earnings rather than the “pro forma” kind), and several statements by corporate executives that the forward outlook is not especially good. Today many of the pharmaceuticals made their earnings announcements and starting off Merck & Co. disappointed with few new drugs in the pipeline and announcing a cut of 4,400 jobs as well. Then the IRS announced that mortgage finance company Freddie Mac may be liable for as much as $750 million plus interest (so far) as the investigation into the accounting fraud continues.

Physical buying has been strong since gold pulled back from the highs around $394 an ounce. India is in gold demand season in the run up to Diwali on Oct 25. The arrival of Ramadan on Oct. 26 has also spurred buying. This happens every year to some extent, a fact that appears to be lost on many alleged “analysts”. Even when prices were at comparable prices prior to the Clinton-Rubin “strong dollar policy” that pushed gold to lows near $252 an ounce, these traditional consumers were still buyers of gold and silver. One major difference this time is that for the first time in several years is that the Indian subcontinent and Asia had a good monsoon season yielding better harvests and giving greater hopes of better returns for the rural peoples of these regions and therefore has given more confidence to buy precious metals for Festival and Marriage Seasons, as well as Islamic and Christian holidays in the coming weeks.

One worry for some analysts has been the large Commitment of Traders Report for gold that has been a problem for some precious metals analysts. The huge overhang they attributed to Fund and speculators who could bolt at the first sign of trouble and yet that has not really happened to any real significant degree or for any extended period of time. What is not reported by the stock infomercial media is that the Commitment of Traders Report continues to show that the so-called “smart money” commercial traders are betting on a pullback for the S&P 500 this Fall. Early last month the net short position of commercial traders in the S&P 500 was about 65,000 contracts. As each contract represents about $250,000 in the S&P 500 index that is a net short position of about $16.5 billion net short. As it takes time for the COT as an intermediate term indicator the “smart money” is expecting the equities market to take a huge hit. Yet nothing is mentioned about it in the financial media infomercials known as CNBC, CNNfn, or Bloomberg. However, when it comes to precious metals, the COT is continually mentioned as a factor that has yet to bring down the price of precious metals. Funny how these alleged precious metals “analysts” continually point to the COT figures and worry while other alleged “equities” analysts spin a completely different story about a “second half recovery” without batting an eye as the COT figures for the equities contracts suggest a major fall in the stock market this Fall. I suggest it is all more “hope and hype” by some precious metals bears and very scared shorts who are hanging heavy on the hook. Meanwhile, unlike with most equities, investors can actually buy the underlying asset in precious metals where investors in equities don’t have that luxury.


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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[ThaiGuru]

Weil der Gold Chart die letzten 3 Tage so ein schönes Bild machte, hier noch einmal!

Im USA Gold Bord schliesen die dortigen User heute bereits schon Wetten ab, bei welchem Goldpreis Stand die Comex wieder, von heute auf morgen die Margin erhöhen wird, wie sie es bereits kurz vor überschreiten der 400.- Dollar Marke beim letzten mal gemacht hat, um einen weiteren Goldpreis Anstieg zu sabotieren.

Falls die Comex dies wirklich kurz vor 400.- Dollar pro Unze…

Ein solches evetuelles, unlauteres Vorgehen der Comex, wäre meiner Ansicht nach, aber so offensichtlich manipulativ, dass danach noch noch in weit grösserem Maase Nachfrage nach physischem Gold entehen würde, die gerade das Gegenteil von dem bewirken könnte, was das Gold Cabal zum Ziel hat.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Wavetrader]

Wenn das `Gold-Kartell` lebt, hat es Angst vor einem steigenden Handels-Volumen, das es nicht mehr beherrschen kann. Daher wird es logischerweise auch die Trader ins Visier nehmen müssen.

In Asien gibt es bereits erste konkrete Sanktionen gegen Daytrading, die nichts anderes bedeuten als eben dieses zu verbieten!

Das Handelsvolumen in den betroffenen Titeln ist teilweise um ca. 40% zurückgegangen.

Mit einer mir völlig unverständlichen Begründung: So werde der Markt für Fonds attraktiver. Jeder Börsenanfänger weiß aber, dass nur ein liquider Markt weiche Kursbewegungen zeichnen kann und Daytrader das Schmiermittel der Kursbildung sind.

Vielleicht kann so etwas auch irgendwann beim Goldhandel blühen... Unter dem Vorwand `Spekulation ist gefährlich` sollen Investoren geschützt werden. Welcher Investor aber wird es toll finden, wenn sich das Handelsvolumen und damit das Interesse an seinem Wert halbiert? Weder zum Einstieg noch zum evtl. nötigen raschen Ausstieg ist dies sinnvoll.

Wer `mehr Regulierung des Marktes` schreit, wird vielleicht bald auch fordern, den Preis eines Assets selbst zu regulieren?

Der ganze Bloomberg-Artikel aus der heutigen Welt riecht nach billiger Propaganda, der Autor plappert diese völlig ahnungslos nach oder glaubt tatsächlich an das, was er da schreibt.

-----
Asiens Börsen stemmen sich gegen Kursmanipulationen

Spekulation macht Investoren das Leben schwer

London - Einige Aktienbörsen in Asien bemühen sich, die potenzielle Manipulation von Aktienkursen einzuschränken. Das dürfte internationale Investoren ermutigen, mehr Kapital in Asien zu investieren. Thailand, China und Indien sind die asiatischen Märkte, wo es Fondsmanager aufgrund von Spekulationsgeschäften schwer haben, attraktive Investments auszumachen. Denn heftige Kursausschläge verunsichern die Investoren. Seit Jahresanfang haben Fonds, die sich auf Schwellenländer konzentrieren, netto rund 7,8 Mrd. Dollar in asiatische Aktien gesteckt.

Beschränkungen für spekulative Geschäfte "wären positiv und würden den Handel transparenter machen", erklärt Sheree Tan, der bei Morley Fund Management (Singapore) für die Investments verantwortlich ist: "Das asiatische Umfeld hat sich verändert, es zieht mehr und mehr Kapital an."

Thailand dürfte bald von Daytradern verlangen, für Aktien gleich beim Kauf den vollen Preis zu zahlen. Bislang werden sie erst nach Börsenschluss zur Kasse gebeten. Dem Vorschlag waren heftige Kursausschläge wie bei Millennium Steel vorangegangen. Der Aktienkurs des angeschlagenen Stahlproduzenten war im August und September drei Wochen lang bis zu 91 Prozent hochgeschnellt, um danach wieder einzubrechen.

Ähnliche Auflagen für den Aktienhandel gibt es bereits an der Börse Mumbai. Aftek Infosys gehört zu den neun Unternehmen, die dort letzten Monat in die Kategorie "trade for trade"! aufgenommen wurden. Für die Investoren bedeutet das, dass sie für jeden Kauf der Software-Aktie den vollen Preis zahlen müssen, also nicht die Differenz aus einer Serie von Transaktionen an einem Tag. "Als Anleger will ich nicht, dass meine Aktie an einem Tag um zehn Prozent nach oben oder unten ausschlägt", begrüßt Sanjay Dongre, Fondsmanager bei UTI Asset Management, die Maßnahme.

In Tokio wurde die Veröffentlichung von Details über Aktienkäufe und Aktienverkäufe von Brokerhäusern abgeschafft. Das so genannte "Teguchi" erleichterte es Investoren, auf bestimmte Kursausschläge zu setzen. Der Abschaffung war eine gemeinsame Beschwerde von neun Vermögensverwaltungen, darunter Fidelity Investment und Nomura Asset Management, vorangegangen. Sie hatten bemängelt, dass einige Online-Broker diese Informationen als Basis für ihre Anlageurteile nutzten.

Als am 17. September in Bangkok der Rekord von sieben Milliarden Aktien gehandelt wurde, gab die thailändische Börse Pläne bekannt, die Spekulation einzudämmen. Zur Disposition stand das so genannte "net settlement", also die Abrechnung mehrerer Handelsgeschäfte mit einer Aktie am Ende des Tages, wobei nur der Nettogewinn oder Verlust zu zahlen ist. In dem Monat bis zum 17. September wurden täglich im Schnitt 4,3 Milliarden Aktien gehandelt. In den vier Wochen nach der Ankündigung lag das durchschnittliche Handelsvolumen bei 2,5 Milliarden Aktien pro Tag.

Wird den Spekulanten ein Strich durch die Rechnung gemacht, dürften sich große Fondsgesellschaften ermutigt sehen, mehr Kapital in Asien zu investieren, zumal sich dort die Wachstumsaussichten verbessern und die Unternehmensgewinne erholen. "Wir sind für mehr Regulierung des Marktes", betont Mary Erdoes, Vermögensverwalterin bei J.P. Morgan Private Bank: "Die Regulierung bringt Stabilität." Einen ordentlichen Markt für alle Aktien zu gewährleisten, ist wichtig für die Reputation einer Börse als sicherer Investmentstandort.

Bloomberg

22.10.2003 http://www.welt.de/data/2003/10/22/186042.html

[ThaiGuru]

@Wavetrader

"Thailand dürfte bald von Daytradern verlangen, für Aktien …

Das ist eine Falschaussage!

Ich trade hier vor Ort, und kann bestätigen, dass nichts dergleichen geplant, oder angekündigt wurde.

Es ging einer Aussage des Chefs der Thai Börse letzten Monat darum bei einzelnen Titeln die ein unverantwortlich hohes KGV vorweisen, das sogenannte Netsetlement 3T (Heute kaufen, in 3 Tagen bezahlen!) aufzuheben. Wurde aber mangels Durchführbarkeit wieder fallen gelassen. Wer will schon entscheiden welche Aktie nun zu teuer ist und welche z.Bsp. eben auf Grund besonderer Umstände nicht.

Die Broker in Thailand leben vom Day Trading, die würden nie zulassen, dass der Tages Handel abgeschafft würde.

Der Autor hat wie Du schon gesagt hast entweder keinen blassen Schimmer über was er da schrieb, oder es ist nur billige Propaganda.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Die einzige am SET gehandelte Thai Gold Minen Aktie TONGKAH HARBOUR (Thailand:THL.BK), ist heute wieder um 6.72% auf 7.15 THB gestiegen, und zwar noch vor dem heutigen Goldpreisanstieg in Amerika. THL habe ich hier im Board vor ca. 5 Monaten bei 1.50 THB zum Kauf empfohlen. Die Aktie hat nach wie vor grosses Preispotential! Morgen bleibt die Börse in Thailand wegen einem Feiertag geschlossen. (Der Geburtstag von Rama 5 wird gefeiert!)

[Wavetrader]

Danke für die Vor-Ort-Infos - diese zerpflücken den Artikel natürlich noch schneller.

[ThaiGuru]

Bitte unter keinen Umständen diesen Link anklicken!

Es ist ein Blutbad

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

[superman6]

Dann schaut mal lieber die Anvil an.

Als Beiprodukt wird hier Silber abgebaut.

Mit 37 Cents G in SYD weiter auf All-Time-High.

Das Schönste kommt hier noch.

Vielleicht nimmt sich ja ein Börsenbrief der
Sache mal an.

[ThaiGuru]

October 22 - Gold $386.10 up $5.10 - Silver $5.10 up 6 cents

Gold Derivatives Banking Crisis On The Way?

"We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times,…
~ David Rockefeller, founder of the Trilateral Commission, in an address to a meeting of the Trilateral Commission, in June 1991

For the third day in a row gold shot right out of the box on the Comex opening. It wasn’t long before gold traded $386.40, up $5.40. Enter Morgan Stanley and his compatriots to curtail the budding gold excitement. At this point the dollar, which was only slightly lower when gold opened, began to crater. If gold were a free trading market, it would have exploded when the dollar sank like it did.

Not so with gold and the rigged markets in the United States. As mentioned yesterday, a sharply rising gold price is the worst nightmare for the Fed, Treasury and Bush Administration as far as their gradually falling dollar wishes are concerned. Enter the execution of their "strong dollar policy," or what is left of it, which is to cap the gold price as much as possible.

The evidence of what is happening here is clear. We only need go to the video tape. Yesterday gold soared on its own. The dollar was quiet. Gold took off again today AND THEN the dollar swooned badly. By the end of the day it fell all the way to 91.53, down 1.11 and a new low close! The euro rose .01570 to 1.1790.

Dollar:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/C3

The Gold Cartel is desperate to contain gold and keep the do…

The open interest situation is VERY intriguing. It rose 9217 contracts yesterday to 252,897. There was substantial new buying which confirms the information I received about The Stalker. He and his ilk had to be in there loading up with abandon. Did they go through Morgan Stanley? What does seem fairly certain is the Morgan Stanley buying was not massive short-covering. They were the big sellers the previous two weeks. If they were covering their shorts in a big way, the open interest would have fallen sharply, or at least not increase so much.

This line of thinking was confirmed by the surge after gold`s opening. Morgan Stanley was one of the sellers. The increase in open interest also suggests The Gold Cartel is digging in to make another stand. Just as there were aggressive new buyers yesterday, there were a whole lot of new sellers. Who could they be? The producers are net buyers and it certainly wasn’t the funds. The funds were big buyers today as the volume was very heavy.

Some things never change. With the stock market giving us a rare tanking and the dollar making new lows, gold made new highs late in the day, rising to $387.20, when The Gold Cartel put the lid on and sent it back down on the close. Up $7.50 yesterday and $5.10 today. Average it out and you come up with $6.30 per day. The $6 rule, in essence, is alive and well. Too much gold excitement is not allowed.

What loathsome people we are dealing with, this Gold Cartel.…

GOLD! That will be a different matter. We shall be jumping up and down with joy!!!

The commodities markets continue to exhibit strength. DEC Cotton roared ahead 2.28 cents to 77.59 cents. NOV beans also roared into new high ground at $7.49 ¾, up 19 ½ cents. Dec corn gained 4 ½ cents to $2.20 ¼, while DEC wheat popped a healthy 14 cents to $3.54 a bushel. Some weak sisters, like limit-down hogs, kept the CRB (245.33, up .54) from taking off.

Gold has now traced all but a few dollars of its correction off its high of three weeks ago. You have read my comments over the past months how gold’s recovery time keeps shrinking in dramatic fashion. The Gold Cartel is unable to do what they have done in the past because the physical market is TOO STRONG. The Paradigm Shift as far as gold investing is concerned is accelerating. More and more investors all over the world WANT IN! The cabal is finding it harder and harder to keep gold down. They also are finding it harder and harder to find other willing central bank sellers.

As mentioned yesterday, the gold chart is very powerful. Bullion has rallied $21 off of Friday’s low in just 4 sessions, a stunning reversal! With the dollar in trouble, commodity markets firming, and US stock markets extremely vulnerable to a sharp sell-off, gold could explode at any time.

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

Silver moved up smartly and seems ready to roar.

Yesterday’s open interest fell 572 contracts to 90,599. It is important to note the silver open interest is 20,000 contracts lower than when it was at these price levels over three weeks ago. This means there is plenty of room for the specs to pile in and take silver to new highs.

Sources also tell me they believe the silver producers will only be light sellers on the coming price surge. If that is the case, silver is going to move up VERY FAST.

Goldman Sachs was a buyer of silver calls today. Silver and gold option volatilities are moving higher as would be expected.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[valueinvestor]

http://www.wegelin.ch

Auf dieser Seite kann man sich die immer lesenswerten Anlagekommentare der schweizer Privatbank herunter laden.

Der letzte Artikel handelte von dem sich entwickelnden Zweikampf USA/China. Die USA forderten in Doha zuletzt vehement eine Aufwertung des Renmimbi. Dazu Wegelin: China sei noch gar nicht in der Lage, seine Währung dem Markt zu überlassen, weil es dazu im Lande ein funktionierendes Banksystem bräuchte. Wegelin wäre nicht überrascht, wenn bei einer Freigabe des Renmimbi dieser sogar fallen würde, weil die Chinesen ihre hohen Ersparnisse ins Ausland zu effizienteren Banken tragen könnten. Immerhin betrage die Sparquote in China 40%.

Preisfrage von mir: Was könnte ein Chinese machen, der sein Geld nicht dem wenig entwickelten Bankensystem seines Landes anvertrauen will und auch nicht die Möglichkeit hat, sein Geld ins Ausland zu schaffen?

[goldmaki]

unser "freund" kann es nicht lassen (anal )

Beim Gold hört der Spaß auf



Neulich habe ich an anderer Stelle geschrieben, die letzte Möglichkeit, heute noch zu provozieren, ist es, pro USA zu sein. Doch wenn man ausschließlich über die Finanzmärkte schreibt, dann gibt es anscheinend ein noch viel neuralgischeres Thema – nämlich das Gold! Jedes Mal, wenn ich gegen das Gold schreibe, regnet es regelrecht Hassmails, überschlagen sich die Leute in den Boards und zeigt mir mein Redakteur in der "Welt am Sonntag" Briefe von Abonnenten, die deswegen die Zeitung abbestellt haben.

Woran liegt das nur? Über Aktien kann man alles schreiben, da regt sich keiner mehr auf, Romane lesen sowieso nur wenige Menschen, bei Musik ist anscheinend jeder tolerant und selbst Penisse schockieren nicht mehr. Nur wenn es ums Gold geht, hört der Spaß anscheinend auf.

Ich habe natürlich meine eigene Theorie über die Liebe zum Gold. Obwohl ich mich gegenwärtig sehr mit Sigmund Freud beschäftige, möchte ich dessen These von der Verankerung der Vorliebe für Geld und Gold in frühkindlichen Ereignissen der analen Phase hier (noch) außen vorlassen.

Der Gedanke einer ganz festen Verankerung der Liebe zum Gold im Kopf ist jedoch nicht von der Hand zu weisen. Ich habe noch niemals jemanden gesehen, der im Zeitablauf Gold mal gut fand und dann wieder nicht. Hier ist es nicht wie bei Aktien, die man das eine Mal kaufenswert und das andere Mal wieder verkaufenswert findet. Natürlich gibt es bei den Käufern von Minenaktien viele Akteure, die genau so denken. Doch die tatsächliche Liebe zum Gold ist etwas anders:

Die wirklichen Goldfans glauben an den baldigen Untergang unseres Gemeinwesens nebst Wirtschaft – und sie glauben nicht nur daran, sondern sie sehnen sich sogar danach. Weil dann ihre Goldentscheidung die richtige wäre, und weil sie sich dann ganz tief in ihrem Herzen erlöst fühlten von der Schlechtigkeit dieser Welt. Denn Gold ist das einzig Bleibende, das einzig Unveränderliche in einer sich dauernd verändernden Welt, in der man niemals genau wissen kann, wer es gut und wer es böse meint mit einem. Gold ist der einzig stabile Halt in einer völlig haltlosen Welt.

Und genau dieses (beinahe schon als metaphysisch zu bezeichnende) Denken, die apodiktische Verankerung des Gegensatzpaares von ewiger Stabilität versus Untergang, erklärt die Null-oder-eins-Entscheidung aller Goldfans und Goldfeinde. Entweder man glaubt an die Selbstregulierungskräfte von Marktwirtschaft und demokratischer Gesellschaft oder man glaubt an den Untergang. Ein Drittes dazwischen gibt es nicht. Deswegen kann man das Gold und seine Herrschaft nur herbeisehnen oder ablehnen, ein Indifferent-Sein ist hingegen kaum möglich.

Die Gründe dafür liegen freilich eher in der Person und im persönlichen Gewordensein der Goldliebhaber und Goldfeinde begründet als in ihren Finanz-Erfahrungen. Womit man letztlich also bei diesem Thema an der Psychologie keinesfalls vorbei kommt. Und sollte es richtig sein, dass die Auswirkungen des permanenten Krisenszenarios, wie wir es heutzutage erleben, den Leuten irgendwann nicht nur auf den Geldbeutel, sondern auch auf die Psyche schlägt, dann könnte dem Goldpreis entgegen aller wirtschaftlicher Vernunft vielleicht doch noch eine gute Zukunft beschert sein. Bald wird sich also zeigen, was unsere Kinderstube aus uns gemacht hat.


[e-mail]

Bernd Niquet hat seinen Urlaub verschoben, weswegen erst in der nächsten Woche keine Kolumnen an dieser Stelle erscheinen werden

........und hat seinen Urlaub (wegen des Goldanstieges?) verschoben


goldmaki

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, October 22, 2003

Indian ex duty premium: AM $6.94, PM $7.30, with world gold at $380.30 and $382.40. Ample for legal imports: a very resilient performance. This is basis Bombay: all the other Indian points reported by Reuters were also in import territory, although one was somewhat marginal in the afternoon. Reuters this morning from London quotes a "trader from an Investment Bank" calling a top to the move, and asserting

"…the good physical demand….last week had drained away compl…

India’s premiums flatly contradict this – and India is, after all, the biggest buyer of bullion entering world trade by a huge margin.

TOCOM remained quite unimpressed. True, volume jumped 37%, but only to the equivalent of 38,163 Comex contracts; open interest rose only 156 Comex equivalent. The active contract closed at the high, up 22 yen; $US gold stood 25c higher than the NY close at the end of the day. (NY yesterday traded 59,270 contracts; open interest surged 9,217 lots.)

Holding the steep NY gain, of course, was quite an achievement, and evidently there was some appetite in the Far East: in Standard London’s words:

"The price has been contained in a tight range in Asia this …

There are several converging reasons why this should be so. Simple chart reading places dramatic emphasis on breaking out of the ’93-’96 top, not exceeded for 16 years. Above $380, pressure builds enormously on Elliot Wave theorist Bob Prechter to capitulate on his famous long standing bearishness – Prechter is currently moving the goal posts to $400+, but is running out of room. See

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B34B3BA16%2…

And a number of observers are calling attention to potentially the explosive option structure just above the market as revealed by the Comex data.

See:

http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/gol_opt_cscall.jsp?month1=1…

One of these is a noted bullion dealer bear who says:

"watch out if $400 moves onto the radar."

No doubt stemming from this, several observers are warning darkly of "congestion" "tough resistance" and seeing gold "capped by overseas selling". As UBS cautiously notes, speaking of Friday October 3rd’s savage sell off:

"we remain perplexed by the reasons for the sell-off in the …

Those who believe that gold has been subject to a high degree of surreptitious Official Sector interference over the past decade are waiting expectantly for the Manager’s response. One is certainly called for.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ulfur]

Merkwürdig, wer hat recht?

Kitco meldet einen Silberpreis von 5,09 $/oz,
Bulliondesk hingegen von 5,16 $/oz.

[Wavetrader]

valueinvestor, danke für diesen interessanten Link. Ich habe mir den kompletten Kommentar 225 durchgelesen. Meine 2 Spontan-Kommentare dazu:

1. Der Autor vernachlässigt m.E. die Nachhaltigkeitskomponente bei der Produktion. Umwelt- und Sicherheitsstandards (z.B. Verbieten von Giftstoffen, Stromspar-Anreize), die wir in Europa beachten, erhöhen die Preise für die hier produzierten Güter- und zwar nicht nur im Lebensmitteln oder im Textilbereich, sondern generell. Sie sind aber durchaus realistischer, weil sie die langfristigen Ressourcen-Verbrauch einer Volkswirtschaft einbeziehen (dazu gehört eben auch eine heile Natur und heile Menschen). Länder wie China, die das erheblich weniger berücksichtigen, betreiben also eine Art indirekte Subventionierung. Insofern ist die Kritik an einer künstlichen Abwertung deren Währung gerechtfertigt, das sie das Problem zusätzlich verschärft.

2. Im Artikel wird davon gesprochen, dass die USA das Konsumgut `Sicherheit` mit ihrer Politik zur Verfügung stellen und die erheblichen Militärausgaben und Defizite der USA durch die Dollar-Anhäufung der asiatischen Länder bezahlt werden. Ich stelle allerdings in Frage, dass sich die Sicherheit wirklich erhöht hat. Weder zwischen Pakisten und Indien, weder zwischen Nord- und Südkorea/Japan noch im mittleren Osten kann ich bisher eine verbesserte Sicherheitslage ausmachen, die für Investoren relevant wäre. Ganz im Gegenteil kann ein Erstarken islamistischer Bestrebungen als Trotzreaktion rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen für Investoren verschlechtern.

Der Artikel ist gegenüber Gold ja eher neutral, denn die Chancen für Gold nur beim Szenario von Terrorangriffen durch sog. schmutzige Bomben zu sehen, zeugt doch von einer sehr eindimensionalen Betrachtungsweise.

[Tippgeber1]

@Thai-Guru

Es scheint so, als würde die Richtung doch wieder
stimmen...384$....das Schweine-Kartell kann dem Druck
immer weniger standhalten wie es scheint....
Der Dow mit über 9584 hoffnungslos überbewertet...


Grüssels
Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

@ulfur

Eigentlich kann nur ein Silber Preis von beiden stimmen, da hast Du wohl völlig Recht. Es ist aber absolut nichts neues, dass verschiedene Preise zu Silber, und noch weit mehr beim Gold angezeigt werden.

Heute gibt der Comdirect Gold Chart z.Bsp. einen Höchstpreis von 390.75 Dollar, und einen Tiefstpreis von 382.38 Dollar pro Unze an.

Woher diese eventuell echten, oder vielleicht auch unechten Daten zum Gold, und den Silber Preisen kommen, wissen anscheinend nicht einmal die Anbieter dieser Charts so genau. Zumindest hat mir INO com auf eine Frage danach, das so geschrieben. INO Com wusste auch nicht wo auf dieser Welt am Samstag, und Sonntag Gold gehandelt wurde, als an diesen beiden Tagen Daten in den 24 Std. INO Chart einflossen.

Eine weitere Anfrage nach den Quellen für diese Gold Daten bei N-TV ergab als Antwort stinkfrech einen Artikel über Verschwörungstheorien der Gold Bugs.

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/_common/informer/lib/chart/midd…

Der 24 Std INO Chart hingegen zeit einen Höchstpreis von nur 388.-, und einen Tiefstpreis von 383.-

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=15&t=c&a=…

Beim Kitco Gold Chart sieht man, dass der Goldpreis nicht einmal die 387.30 erreicht hatte, und das Tief bei knapp unter 383.- Dollar lag.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Ein Dornröschen erwacht?

Schaut`s Euch mal diesen Gold Explorer etwas näher an!

http://www.vencan.com/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=VCG.V

[valueinvestor]

@wavetrader

Eidgenössische Privatbankiers sind immer seeehr diskret, daher finde ich die Erwähnung von Gold schon fast als Kaufempfehlung.
Nöö, die Schlußfolgerung, das es für Chinesen eine der wenigen Möglichkeiten zur Diversifizierung ihrer Privatfinanzen Gold ist, stammt von mir.
Ob das von den Tigern finanzierte LBdefizit der Staaten jetzt als Bezahlung für Sicherheit zu interpretieren ist oder ob dies Länder einfach ihre eigene Exportwirtschaft am Laufen halten wollen, kann man streiten - ich tendiere zu Letzterem.
Wegelins Kommentare kann man fast immer mit Gewinn lesen, auch weil sie oft nicht mit der eigenen Meinung übereinstimmen.

[Wavetrader]

"Nöö, die Schlußfolgerung, das es für Chinesen eine der wenigen Möglichkeiten zur Diversifizierung ihrer Privatfinanzen Gold ist, stammt von mir."

Worauf bezieht sich "Nöö"? Es ist doch völlig eindeutig, dass die Schlussfolgerung von dir ist. Ich will der auch gar nicht widersprechen, bezog mich nur auf Aussagen aus dem Artikel, über die ich gestolpert bin. Lesenswert ist er in der Tat! Werde diese Kommentare in Zukunft weiter verfolgen.

[ulfur]

Thaiguru,

danke für die Erläuterungen zu den divergierenden Gold-/Silberkursen.

Kitco hat nachträglich die gestrigen Kurse korrigiert. Es scheint, daß man den Kursangaben nicht blind vertrauen kann, ein Überprüfen bei anderen Kursanbietern ist ev. sinnvoll.

[ThaiGuru]

Ach is dat schööön!!!

[hagentronje]

Thai

Kann man Gold essen ??



Was bekommst Du eigentlich, wenn Du das (phys) Gold verkaufst ??????????????????????

Geld (welches), anderes Gold, dumme Sprüche , Brötchen, Papiergeld, Fiat "Geld", dumme Versprechungen ein "paar auf die Nuß" weil`s keiner haben will (einsame Insel) ??

[tamara93]

@hagentronje

lass uns bitte mit diesem dummen Gewäsch in frieden, wenn Du Informationen hast, ganz egal, welche Richtung, ist das interessant, aber nicht so etwas!!

[Magor]

hat "Hagentronje" Frust,
weil er er versäumt hat sich rechtzeitig auch einige von diesen nicht essbaren Teilchen zuzulegen?
Hat er nun Torschlusspanik?
Nicht verzweifeln!
Absolut noch am Anfang die Geschichte!
Bekommst noch viel Zeit die nächsten Jahre auch noch ein echter Fan zu werden!

[ThaiGuru]

@hagentronje

Gold gibt mit die Sicherheit etwas zu besitzen, dass Geld schlechthin darstellt, und das seit tausenden von Jahren als Geld akzeptiert wird, und keine Zahlungsverpflichtung irgend eines anderen darstellt. Gold wird als weltweite Währung in allen Ländern dieser Welt akzeptiert. Welche Papierwährung kann das schon von sich behaupten. Nicht einmal unsere sogenannte Leitwährung US Dollar kann das.

Für einen 1 Unzen Gold-Krügerrand erhalte ich selbstverständlich ebenso weltweit, lokale Papier Währung.
Gold ist politsch neutral, im Gegensatz zum US Dollar, Euro, Rubel, etc., und vor allem hat Gold den Vorteil, dass es nicht künstlich hergestellt, oder die Goldmenge unbegrenzt ausgeweitet werden kann.

Für Gold muss man eine echte Gegenleistung erbringen, für Papiergeld reicht schon eine Druckerpresse bei der privaten FED.

Ich glaube kaum, dass ich in den nächsten Jahren physisches Gold verkaufen werde, weil ich mir dafür vorderhand eh nur Papiergeld mit einem inneren Wert von gegen Null einhandle.

Zur Zeit wird zwar noch Papiergeld als Werterhaltungsmittel, und Zahlungsmittel, allgemein im täglichen Leben verwendet. Ich benutze es auch täglich, und habe bis jetzt auch überhaupt keine Probleme damit.

Doch es wird die Zeit kommen, wenn die Menschen kein Papiergeld mehr akzeptieren wollen, dessen innerer Wert nur aus Zahlungsversprechen von bereits heute zum Teil unverantwortlich hoch verschuldeten Regierungen besteht, und auch weil die Papiergeldentwertung einfach zu gross geworden ist.

Zukünftig werde ich alles mit Gold bekommen können, was Du Hagentronje mit Deinem anscheinend ach so geliebten "legalen Falschgeld" "Fiat Money" vielleicht nicht mehr kaufen kannst.

Für mich ist physisches Gold eine Versicherung, ein Sparplan, und zukünftig sicher auch ein Tauschmedium anstelle von ganz, oder fast wertlosem Papiergeld.

Zudem ist Gold sehr schön anzusehen, und besitzt eine Faszination die Papiergeld im normal Falle total abgeht.


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Fällt jemandem bei diesen beiden Charts irgend eine Gemeinsamkeit auf?

Gold:



Silber:

[ThaiGuru]

New York Market

Market hours (local time)
8:20 AM - 1:30 PM.

COMEX Division gold futures and options are two ways of trading gold in New York. They provide an important alternative to traditional means of investing in gold such as bullion, coins, and mining stocks.


New York ACCESS MARKET®

Market hours (local time)
3:15 PM - 8:00 AM Mon-Thu
7:00 PM - 8:00 AM Sun.

After-hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCES…


London

Market hours (local time)
8:30 AM - 4:00 PM, with Fixing at 10:30 AM and 3:00 PM.

The metal prices fixed twice a day here, known as London Fixes, are the guidepost for the official gold trading around the world.


Zurich

Market hours (local time)
8:00 AM - 5:00 PM.

The core is the mutual settlement(gold pool) of the three biggest banks in Switzerland.


Hong Kong

Market hours (local time)
8:30 AM - 12:30 PM
2:30 PM - 5:30 PM.

Hong Kong is center of gold trading in the Far East and the Southeastern Asia.


Sydney

Market hours (local time)
9:00 AM - 3:00 PM.

Australia`s geographical location is a natural place to maintain the continuity of the spot gold market after New York traders go home and before the Asian traders wake up. Sydney opens up shortly after the NY market closes and overlaps the Hong Kong market.

[Cashlover]

7221
Kann man Gold essen ??

So gesehen, bietet Geld jedenfalls auch keine Alternative





Was die Werthaltigkeit von Gold anbetrifft:

Frag mal deinen OPA
Aber teile dem mal nicht deine negative Haltung das Gold betreffend mit, der verhaut dir noch den Hosenboden

mfg

[Magor]

Thai,
ist zwar nicht, was Du als Antwort auf Deine Preisfrage hören wolltest, aber, eine dritte Gemeinsamkeit
- vielleicht auch der Auslöser - könnte der just zu dem Zeitpunkt drehende USD, bzw. erstarkende Eu gewesen sein ...

[Magor]

schon durcheinander : - (
umgekehrt, der ab ca. 18h wieder erstarkende USD gewesen sein ...

[ThaiGuru]

@magor

Warum unterstellst Du mir, dass ich Deine Begründung nicht hören will?

Im Gegenteil, Deine Begründung ist absolut relevant, und richtig, der Dollar ist wirklich ab ca. 18 Uhr 20 plötzlich stark gestiegen. Gold und Silber sind aber zeitlich zuerst!! gefallen, erst danach sind Gold und auch die Silber, gleichzeitig!!!, kurz vor Gold-/Silber- Handelschluss an der Comex unter massivsten Verkaufsdruck gekommen, und Gold gab in den letzten Handelminuten wieder 4.- von 8.- Dollar Gewinn pro Unze ab. Silber gab in den letzten 10 Minuten sogar den ganzen vorher erreichten Preisanstieg auf 5.20 pro Unze wieder ab.

So verhält sich ein freier Gold und Silber Markt bestimmt ni…

Wenn Du Dir die Zeit nehmen würdest einmal die früheren Charts mit den heutigen zu vergleichen, kannst Du auch unschwer erkennen, dass in Dollarpreis Schwäche Phasen, Gold und Silber vergleichsweise nur sehr schwach preislich ansteigen, in Dollar Stärke Phasen, Gold, und zum Teil auch Silber, jedoch jeweil preislich massiv abstürzen. Und die aller wichtigste Feststellung die Du machen kannst, ist die Tatsache, dass Gold komischerweise praktisch immer fällt bevor der Dollar ansteigt! Falls der Dollar fällt ist es meistens gerade umgekehrt.

Oder solltest Du allenfalls glauben, dass eben weil die Gold-, und Silberpreise so "zufälligerweise" kurz vor Comex Handelschluss wieder "gleichzeitig" stark nachgegeben haben, der Dollar gerade dadurch auf wundersame Weise wieder stärker wurde?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

October 24 - Gold $388.20 up $4 - Silver $5.13 down 1 cent

JP Morgan Halts Gold Advance/New High Weekly Close By $6.30

Jack Mingo`s book, How The Cadillac Got Its Fins is entertai… (especially if those suits are charcoal or black).

To do something out-of-step requires an out-of-step person.

It`s the cracked ones that let the light into the world. The winning edge is that fire in their eyes...Tom Peters, The Circle Of Innovation

The same low-lifes who have rigged the gold price for so man…

What continues to be so aggravating is these bums pull their same maneuvers over and over in the exact same fashion and almost no one outside of The Café/GATA camp comments on what they are doing. It makes me outraged that a group of institutions can repeat a trading pattern for so long and do not get called on the carpet for it. It’s ALWAYS the same rotating group in The Gold Cartel that knocks gold down at critical moments. ALWAYS!

The good news is they are gradually losing control. The bad news is until they are thoroughly whipped and carried out on a stretcher, our team will have not have won the day. This is the reason I have focused on CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH for so many years. These arrogants are going to have to be forced to surrender before gold explodes. You have heard me comment that way for what seems like forever. The reason why should be very obvious to anyone following this documented running commentary for any length of time.

It is very heartening, however, to see the cabal’s doom in sight. By fiddling around with the US financial markets for so many years, The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets (PPT) have created a Frankenstein-like market monster that is soon going to terrorize the financial world. Their Father Knows Best Orwellian type of thinking is going to wreak havoc on unsuspecting souls in the public investing arena who have no clue what is coming. The sooner the bad guys go down, the less the mess will be and the sooner US financial markets can get back on track. All we have had the past year (s) is one big illusion/delusion as they cap gold and prop up the stock market. One day it is all going to blow up!

The best news is that in spite of The Gold Cartel’s efforts to contain gold, it still closed at a 7-year weekly high by $6.30, based on the weekly continuation charts. The old high was $382.90 set this past September 20th. Weekly high closes are very important from a technical perspective and can influence money managers significantly. This close will attract new buyers next week.

The gold charts could only have looked better if gold closed above $393.

Daily gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

Weekly gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Monthly gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/M

More good news:

The open interest only rose 2138 contracts yesterday to 256,719. It still remains about 40,000 less than a month ago when gold was at these price levels. This means there is room for tens of thousands of new specs to pour in on the long side before we even get to the old open interest highs. No reason we can’t make new OI highs again, which should take the price of gold above the $400 mark.

The dollar was only slightly weaker at 91.51, down .13 and a new low for the move. The euro gained .25 to 117.92.

Commodity prices continue to gain. The CRB popped .65 to 249.34, led by cattle (99.15) and feeder cattle (103.62), both up the $1.50 limit, and cotton, which registered a multi-year high of 83.11 cents, up 1.52 cents.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday, October 24, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.04, PM $5.36 (basis Bombay) with world gold at $385.20 and $384.50. This is well above import point, but the other Indian cities reported by Reuters are slightly below, which is probably correct. This, however, is a phenomenally strong performance given gold’s rise over the past week and is very bad news for the Bears.

Japan continued uninterested in gold. TOCOM volume fell 49% to the equivalent of 24,604 Comex lots, the active contract slipped 3 yen, open interest was virtually static (down 35 Comex lot equivalent) and world gold stood at $384.40 at the close, 20c above NY. (NY yesterday traded 38,806, with open interest up 2138)

The notorious bear Andy Smith in his weekly comment amplifies his concern that the skew in the option structure creates the possibility of a sudden spike in gold:

"This may be a bull, but it is now a rogue elephant"

Andy is clearly preparing entrenchments for a breakout.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[hagentronje]

magot

dumme Antwort von Dir, Gold man z.Zt. überall kaufen.



Thai

warum liebe ich "Fiat-Money" ?
Eine Unterstellung von Dir ohne Hintergrund (wie leider so oft, wenn du dich angegriffen wühlst)

[hpoth]

Thai,
gut gekonntert,sehe das genau so, habe einmal in den 60igern die US Bundesdruckrei besucht und wr damals faziniert von den vielen Dollarnoten,wie schnell sie damals schon hergestellt wurden und mit Gabelstablern weg transportiert worden.Anfang der 90 igern war ich in Südafrika in Goldminen und war erstaunt wie wenig Gold aus einer Tonne Erz so zwischen 4- 8 Gramm gewonnen wurde und das aus 2500 m tiefe,da war für mich klar was das wahre Geld ist, Góld und nochmals Gold, man muss es eben mal erlebt haben.
Mfg hpoth

[Magor]

Hallo Thai,
Dein Aufzeigen des Gold und Silber Charts lässt das absolut synchrone "gedrückt worden sein" klar erkennen, was Du auch aufzeigen wolltest, und die dahinter stehenden Macht des Gold Cabals. Was ich meinte ist, daß es komplexer sein muß und es zu einfach wäre, dies alleine denen und deren Allmächtigkeit zuzuschieben.

Ich wollte auf die unbedingt dazugehörige, von Dir nicht angesprochene "Dritte Dimension" hinweisen, auf die Rolle des USD im Wechselspiel zu den anderen Währungen.
Dieser USD hat sozusagen zeitgleich an Wert zugelegt. Ich sehe hier eigentlich das um unser Globus wandernde viele Geld als den Auslöser an, welches m.E. längst erkannt hat, daß im Spread zum "Wahren Wert" so einiges zu verdienen ist und welches mit entsprechenden Finanzinstrumenten auch abgeschöpft werden kann.
Dazu muß es allerdings bewegt werden ...

Grüße
Magor

[superman6]

Am Sonntag soll ein Treffen der Finanzminister
u. Notenbanker der G 20 stattfinden.

Was da wohl wieder bei herauskommt???

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market is a complete farce. Just as gold is sold off late time and time again by The Gold Cartel, the stock market manages to pull off one miracle late day rally after another. As has been the case all year, the US stock market is never allowed to close poorly more than one day at a time, if that, and is almost always brought back late in the day to diminish any kind of panicky selling sentiment among the investing public.

Hard to say which is more obvious these days, the gold rig or the stock prop? What I can say is free markets do not do the same thing over and over. Not for weeks and months at a time. This is an abomination which will end badly.

The DOW soared 100 off its low to close down only 30 at 9582. The DOG cut its losses in half, finishing at 1865, down 20. At one point it appeared the DOW and DOG would be crushed, but that is not allowed by The Working Group on Financial Markets these days. Unfortunately, my country is going to go down as one of the most hypocritical countries ever. We talk about free markets, free press and noble ideals. Yet, we rig markets, have no free press when it comes to serious financial matters, and start wars on false pretenses. Our greatness is fading fast and most Americans have no clue why. They have a rude awakening coming!

Houston’s Dan Norcini sums up the market action best:

Hi Bill:

Check out the flagpole rally in the indexes beginning around 2:30 or so our time. That is not your typical end of week evening up process with guys lightening up on the day as they head into the weekend bit. I would venture to say the ESF boys had their corrupt hands full today trying to contain the damage. Between the gold pit, the dollar and the indexes, I wonder how much of our tax money they spent today trying to keep their deceit economics holographic image from melting down.

Dan

More from Dan after my email to him in which I decried my disdaining sentiments over the PPT and Gold Cartel:

I agree Bill. I do not think it is going unnoticed Bill except for the brain dead stock traders who follow the nitwits at CNBC and the other cheerleaders for Wall Street. The shrewd investors are aware of this as GATA has done too much quality work for them to ignore. The Asian interests who are literally stealing our gold away from us under our noses thanks to the idiocy and self-serving of Western elites and bankers are no doubt completely aware of it and are using it as a means to accumulate even more of our gold at lower prices. They are the ones who are winning the war even though the cartel wins a few battles now and then. The simple truth is reflected in the gold chart and the dollar chart. Those charts tell the whole story. Each setback for gold is lasting for shorter periods of time as you have so expertly catalogued. The drubbing gold received back on October 3 and the one of last Friday are already completely erased as if they never happened. Here we are sitting right back at the highest closing level we have had this year and it has barely been a week since the gold bears were blowing their trumpets with cries of "Hosanna" to their own wisdom. That is something for which those interests who have been accumulating gold and who continue to do so are responsible. They are serious buyers and are not going away and are not going to run. The open interest totals are no where near where they were back before the sell off when gold first touched 395 in September this year. That is simply astounding. Imagine where the gold price is giving once we even reach that same level of open interest as back then and it increases beyond that as more and more investors begin to pile in.
Best,
Dan

More goodies from the erstwhile Bill King:

The King Report

M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Friday October 24, 2003 – Issue 2788 "Independent View of the News"

Jobless was 1k worse than expected and the previous week was revised higher by 6k. That didn’t cause the DJIA rally. After the opening drop, operators noticed that institutions were not cutting loose on stocks or the futures, so they covered. It’s highly likely, as we opined, that the large mutual fund complexes intend to hold firm and perhaps do a little gaming between now and their FY end on Halloween.

Today will open lower on: a) Microsoft reported its slowest sales gain (6.1%) since 2000 and admitted that it had overstated sales from some contracts. MSFT also expensed stock options, which cut earnings by .06. The stock fell about 5% in after-hour trading. b) The inability of the Nikkei to rebound after the horrendous 5% collapse. c) The dollar is at new lows. d) M2 fell $4.2B and M3 fell $14.3B for the week ended 10/13. M3 fell below its 20-week moving average for the first time since February 1994, which was when the Fed began hiking rates. Declining monetary aggregates are now a trend and it’s intensifying…After the lower open, operators, barring sudden institutional agitation, will try to affect a rally. If that eventuates, the afternoon is a total guess… Expected economic data: new home sales 1.128m, existing sales 6.3m.

Bridgewater notes that for the first time since the late ‘70s, inflation-hedge assets are substantially out-performing disinflation assets. Is it irony or stupidity that the Fed sees no inflation and fears its converse.

Yesterday, Federal Housing Finance Board CEO John Korsmo told the Senate Banking Committee. "The housing GSEs have grown exponentially in size, sophistication, and inherent risk as capital and mortgage markets have revolutionized" and Congressionally-granted monopolies "bears the seed of systemic risk."

Seattle Times: "Washington Mutual yesterday outlined broad cuts in staff and other expenses in response to a downturn in its key mortgage business. The Seattle-based company may cut the equivalent of 4,000 full-time jobs out of about 22,000 in its nationwide home-loan operations, chief executive Kerry Killinger said. It already cut 1,500 jobs between August, when loan applications peaked, and the end of September, and recently set up a team of top executives to identify further cost savings."

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The predicted, repo withdrawal assisted pull-back of the DOW to its 30-day MA ascending line has occurred. The DOW now sits right on the almost linear trajectory path. Perhaps in the view of the "Maestro" the DOW had been getting too far ahead of the Fed`s plans.

In any event, the repo pool has definitely leveled off (from its recent down move) and we can expect a sideways period for next week as the DOW may oscillate around its upward 30-day MA for a while. If the index somehow falls too far below the 30-day (say, another 150 points down), Monday will undoubtedly reveal a very big repo issuance. There are no expirations scheduled for Monday.

Each direction change in the repo metric adds greater predictive confidence and since the indications are all up the Fed sure won`t complain about my revelations.

The lesson is clear...the Fed is powerful in its paper management skills and IF one wishes to short the equity indexes they should do so with the utmost of caution.

No such investment caution is needed in the area of precious metals.

Mike

More from Mike:

Hi Bill:

The DIVG took out 332 today in a fairly strong continuation of the bounce.

The real test will come in the coming five day period. During the last run-up we put in a dwell period at 332-333 that lasted about a week. If the cartel is dumping derivatives at specified DIVG levels (as I suspect they might) this past clustering activity may explain it.

The long bond is being pumped between 5.1 and 5.3%, the DOW managed upwards and the currency seems to be pumped up and down around 91 as well. I`m still leery that the Fed may choose to re attack gold during the New Orleans Conference and that this is a head fake by the JP Morgan goons....attempting to remind us who`s in charge.

With their $300 plus Billion in FOREX reserves, it`s the Chi…

Mike

Phil Chavanne, a partner with Moustafa Belkhayate in Belkhayate Asset Management Fund Ltd. in Switzerland, is holding a special gold conference on November 5, in Geneva, from 8:30 to 12:30 AM, at the Moevenpick Hotel. Full details can be found on www.belkhayate.com.

The topic of the conference is Gold and its current rise.

Moustafa is a very firm believer in the soundness of Gold as a payment instrument, and is completely convinced of the underlying strength of the wave that is carrying the metal today. The speech he has prepared for the event will show -- from a technical analysis standpoint and through a demonstration of the behavior of the price of Gold -- that we can bet on a protracted upside run, and we are only at the very beginning of this movement.

At his side, actually speaking before him, will be GATA supp…

Ferdi’s presentation will cover the political and financial reasons of the long-standing manipulation of the gold market, and he will also give attendees a useful insight into the prospects of what he dubbed the "Gold War."

Full details for those Café members interested in attending can be found on www.belkhayate.com. The organizer is Swiss-based investment advisor Finaco LLC. The seating is limited to 350 people; however, they are planning to videotape the event and distribute the video through the web thereafter.

I spoke with Ferdi today and he informed me the crowd was going to be extremely well-heeled with an international flare (many attendees from the Middle East)…..

Even Andy Smith is talking about a potential derivatives crisis these days. Of course, the GATA camp has been talking about a Gold Derivatives Banking Crisis for a long time. We presented our case to the Speaker of The House Dennis Hastert, the chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee and to Representative Spencer Bachus, Chairman of the Sub-committee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, along with 8 of his staff members on May 10, 2000. They all received our GDBC document which was 180 pages long. It didn’t do any good, but they were warned.

We do have a gold derivatives crisis coming. It is only a matter of time. Initially, GATA thought it would occur at lower prices, but from what I am hearing through the grapevine, the derivatives are likely to blow up if gold takes out $400. The stop out point for many derivatives players was moved above the key $400 level from lower levels. This is one of the reasons the cabal is frantic to keep gold from going through $400. It could create havoc in the financial world. Whose fault would that be?

The gold shares closed in new high ground with the XAU gaining 1.84 to 98.70 and the HUI jumping 4.25 to 218.21. For the fourth session in a row, Golden Star Resources led the HUI to the upside, gaining another 30 cents (5.78%) to $5.49. What a week! Congrats to CEO Peter Bradford and Treasurer Allan Marter.

Who’s to say what the bad guys are going to do in the short-term. We know they are desperate, pathetic and dangerous, like a cornered RAT. What we also know is we are winning and they are losing. Gold closed in 7-year high weekly ground and the shares closed in 7-year new high ground. World stock markets are on shaky ground, the dollar stinks and commodity prices are on a tear. The scorecard favors our team. Our personal equity and wealth are on the increase while their margin calls are going up.

Word is out around the world of The Gold Cartel’s predicament. The big money sharks are moving in for the kill, as advertised in this column for months.

GATA stretcher-bearers, please stay warmed up!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!



Appendix

3 million workers have lost pension coverage since `00
A report by an arm of the Library of Congress said the benefits erosion could be linked to 3 factors.

By Bob Fernandez
Inquirer Staff Writer

About 3.3 million workers have lost pension coverage in private industry since 2000, according to a report released yesterday by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

The lost pension coverage for those with defined-benefit and 401(k) plans basically rolls back the gains that workers made in pension benefits during the booming 1990s, researcher Patrick J. Purcell said yesterday.

The erosion is part of broader economic stress being put on the nation`s pension system and on workers since the recession. Besides losing pension benefits, workers have had to shoulder higher costs for health-care benefits in recent years, Purcell said.

He is the specialist in pension issues at the Congressional Research Service, an arm of the Library of Congress that supplies federal legislators and agencies with research on issues.

He attributed the lost pension benefits to three factors:

The recession led to the need for companies to lay off workers and cut costs.

Laid-off employees were moving from jobs that offered pension benefits, such as those in manufacturing, to service jobs that did not.

Some larger companies have stopped offering matching funds to 401(k) plans, which has led employees to stop making their contributions and to drop the plan altogether.

There has been "a significant decline in pension benefits," Purcell said, "and the damage is happening at bigger companies."

According to Purcell`s report, the number of full-time employees in 2000 who participated in a defined-benefit or 401(k) plan reached 40.3 million, or 57.4 percent of the private industry workforce.

In 2002, the number of full-time employees covered by a company pension or 401(k) had fallen to 37 million, or 53.5 percent of the workforce.

The results are based on a survey by the U.S. Census Bureau.

"There is an overall awareness in Congress that with the lo… Purcell said yesterday in an interview.

Last week, the U.S. agency that rescues failed pension plans said it had its biggest-ever deficit - $8.8 billion -and might need a government bailout.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Bundesbank

Welteke gegen Goldverkauf zur Finanzierung der Steuerreform

weiter.....

http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

[ThaiGuru]

@Superman6

Wir werden es wohl bald vernehmen, oder allenfalls verspüren, was diese Themen beim Treffen in Mexico so alles erbringen werden.

"Themen der G-20-Konferenz seien die Herausforderungen der G…

+++ Gerhard Zehfuß
vwd/22.10.2003/zf/hab

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.faz.net/s/RubC8BA5576CDEE4A05AF8DFEC92E288D64/Doc…

Galgenhumor in der Krise: Eichel und Clement© AP

© F.A.Z.

© dpa

[tamara93]

In der Industrie hätte man solche Manager schon längst wegen Erfolglosigkeit gefeuert.
Die Firma ( Staat ) müsste in der freien Wirtschaft schon längst Insolvenzantrag stellen.

Und die Esel dürfen einfach weiter wurschteln.

Die Nummer mit der LKW - Maut spricht ja auch Bände.

Da bleibt ja nur noch eine Rettung GOLD

[Jodie1]

Nö, ist ja auch kein Problem, wenn man sich bezüglich der Neuverschuldung um schlappe 100% innerhalb eines Jahres verschätzt.

Das hat doch keine Auswirkung auf die Realwirtschaft, da kann man doch weitermachen wie bisher.

Bravo Eichel, weiter so, Deutschland ist voll im Aufwind !!!

Wer auf diese Regierung noch einen Cent wettet, hat echt einen an der Klatsche.

CU Jodie

[Magor]

Die Regierung, auf welche nicht nur´n paar Cent, sondern die Existenz der DM verwettet wurde,
der kannst Du lange nachweinen Jodie!
Die aalt sich in der Sonne auf ihren vom Volk gestohlenen Pfründen und lästert wie Dagobert.

In einem hast Du allerdings Recht, solch ein „Verschätzen“ wäre mit Oskar nicht möglich gewesen,
Die 2. Spielzeit, mit nachfolgender Verlängerung zum schröpfen der Steuerzahler hätte er dem
„Freien Unternehmertum“ nicht eingeräumt!
Die Kassen wären heute demzufolge nicht noch weiter geplündert worden,
nach dem dringend notwendigen Wechsel.
Jedoch, was ist geschehen?
Die Tröge blieben dieselben, die Säue, die sich daraus bedienen haben vermeintlich nur gewechselt!

Allerdings, daß Gold dieses Probleme überstehen wird, darin stimme ich vollkommen mit Tamara überein!
Bin ja erstaunt eine so breite Einigkeit darüber hier vorzufinden : - ))

Grüße
und einen friedlichen Sonntag noch
wünscht
Magor

[faszination]

Hallo Thai Guru!

Im SCN vertritt Germanasti die Auffassung, daß in Kürze eine FED-Inszenierung (erstklassige Wirtschaftsdaten und Zinsanhebung möglicherweise schon am Dienstag) einen USD-Anstieg von 10 - 15% einleiten wird. Wie beurteilst du dieses Scenario und die Auswirkungen aufs Gold, falls dieser Fall eintreten sollte.

Bei dieser Gelegenheit möchte ich mich bei dir für deine Beiträge einmal herzlich bedanken. Ich lese schon seit langer Zeit mit und finde viel Ermutigung auf meinem langjährigem Weg als Goldbug.

Besonders beeindruckend empfinde ich deinen weisen Umgang mit allen Teilnehmern. Weiter so, du bist großartig!

Mit freundlichen Grüßen

faszination

[ThaiGuru]

@faszination

Habe lange über Deine Frage, resp. die Aussage von Germanasti nachgedacht, und bin zum Ergebnis gekommen, dass eine Zinserhöhung in den USA, allenfalls schon nächsten Dienstag, wie Germanasti vermutet, für die USA einen massiven Dollar Abgabedruck erzeugen würde, und nicht etwa eine Aufwertung, also gerade das Gegenteil von dem bewirken würde, was Germanasti glaubt erkennen zu können. Der Dollar würde meiner Meinung nach nicht an Wert gewinnen, sondern an Wert verlieren, auch wenn sich das jetzt etwas ungewöhnlich anhören sollte. Die Zinsen jetzt zu erhöhen, glaube ich, wäre für die amerikanische Wirtschaft zur Zeit reines Gift. Das wird das Smart Money wohl genauso sehen.

Dass durch eine evtl. Zinserhöhung, und vielleicht weiterer Masnahmen der FED, der Dollar bei den bestehenden Handels-, und Haushaltsdefiziten in einen Aufwärtstrend von 10% bis 15% übergehen könnte, das wage ich dann doch stark zu bezweifeln. Im Gegenteil bin ich immer noch überzeugt davon, dass die USA mehr an einem schwachen Dollar interessiert sind, auch wenn immer wieder gerne von Snoh, und Bush das Gegenteil verkündet wird.

Für europäische Goldbesitzer hingegen wären beide Varianten, von einem weiteren kurzfristig "Inszenierten" Abverkauf beim Gold mal abgesehen positiv zu sehen.

Fällt der Dollar weiter, wie es zur Zeit noch der Fall ist, wird das dem Goldpreis weiteren Aufschwung verleiten! Höchstwahrscheinlich werden wir die 400.- Dollar Marke sehr bald fallen sehen.

Inszeniert die FED etwas, wie von Germanasti vermutet, dass den Dollar um bis zu 15% verteuern würde, bei gleichzeitig nicht weiter steigenden, oder leicht fallenden Goldpreisnotierungen, würde Gold in Euro gerechnet ja ebenfalls bis zu 15% teurer, und dadurch könnte das Interesse der Europäer an Gold erst wirklich geweckt werden.

Selbst wenn Germanasti mit seiner für mich unwahrscheinlichen Annahme richtig liegen würde, und der
Dollar tatsächlich durch FED Manipulationen um 15% ansteigen würde, sehe ich auf Grund der extrem positiven Fundamentaldaten beim Gold, höchstens kurzzeitig etwas nachgebende Preise.

Was Zinserhöhungen in den USA für die dortige Immobilien Blase bedeuten könnte, will ich jetzt heute nicht weiter eingehen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=410…

Love euro, Putin tells Russians

October 25, 2003 Posted: 15:35 Moscow time (11:35 GMT)



MOSCOW - If Russia sells gas for euros, as the Russian President promised, and not for dollars, the Central Bank might have to increase the share of euros in the gold and foreign currency reserves.

Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves have come into the spotlight this week. Senior Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Ulyukayev said on Tuesday that Russia was going to raise the share of euros in the gold and foreign currency reserves by 3-5 percent. However, the Central Bank refuted that statement. Oleg Vyugin, Senior Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, said on Wednesday that no significant changes in the share of euro reserves, currently at about 25 percent of Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves, were expected in the near future. But experts say the Central Bank just does not want to tease speculators. In their opinion, changes in favor of the euro would be quite justified. Also on Wednesday, the Central Bank published a report on the reserves in accordance with IMF standards, for the first time. According to economists, this information will make the reserves transparent, and it will not allow the Central Bank to ‘inflate’ the reserves in its reports, as it happened in the aftermath of the 1998 default.

After Mr. Ulyukayev’s statement, the officials of both the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry made it clear that Mr. Ulyukayev slightly exaggerated things. In fact, it is the competence of the Central Bank to decide on the structure of the reserves. And Sergey Ignatyev, the Chairman of the Central Bank, has said recently that the status quo would be maintained in the structure of the reserves. But in the opinion of Natalya Orlova, economist with Alfa Bank, Mr. Ulyukayev’s statement reflects an overall concern about the strengthening of the euro. As for the appropriateness of increasing the share of euros in the reserves, expert opinions are split. “It is clear that to change the structure of the reserves now, when the euro is at the peak of its value, would be irresponsible. Such changes should be prepared in advance,” she said. Ms. Orlova does not rule out that an increase in the percentage of euros in the reserves could be discussed. However, she notes, the structure of the reserves should correspond to the structure of foreign debt payments. Russia is currently making about 30 percent of debt payments in euros, and the 25 percent share in the reserves is close to optimal. “Secondly, the reserves should correspond to the structure of foreign trade. And Russia trades mostly in dollars. Some companies shifted to euros, but not on a mass scale,” the analyst added.

For his part, Jeff Gable, emerging markets economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, disagrees. He believes it would be reasonable to shift from the dollar to the euro now. In general, he said, it depended on the forecast for the euro. According to his forecasts, the dollar’s exchange rate against the euro would be 1.25 USD/EUR in one year’s time, and the European currency will continue strengthening. And Anton Struchenevsky, economist at Troika Dialog brokerage, thinks that the Central Bank should not worry about the exchange rates of the world’s main currencies. “It is not about getting maximum revenues, as is the case with investment banks. The Central Bank has completely different goals,” he said. In Mr. Struchenevsky’s opinion, it would be quite logical if the share of euros increased. “The Central Bank should minimize risks, bringing the structure of the reserves into line with the structure of foreign trade. And if Russia sells gas for euros, as Vladimir Putin promised to (German Chancellor) Gerhard Schroeder, the share of euro reserves will be rising,” the analyst said.

It is a good principle that the structure of the reserves should correspond to the structure of foreign trade, Mr. Gable agrees. Indeed, Russia has strong trade ties with Europe. However, in Mr. Gable’s opinion, it is important to distinguish between trading with the EU and trading in euros. According to him, trading with the EU does not necessarily mean trading in euros. For example, Russia sells gas and oil to Europe for dollars. That is why, on the one hand, the trade turnover in euros is significantly lower than the trade turnover with the European Union, especially given that energy sales make up the largest part of Russian exports. On the other hand, trade with Central Europe and the Baltic states should also be taken into account. And the currencies of these countries, which have not yet joined the eurozone but are preparing to do so, are closely linked to the European currency. In this case, trade in euros would exceed 25 percent of Russia’s foreign trade, Mr. Gable noted.

As for the publication of the Central Bank’s report on the reserves according to IMF standards, analysts say this is a big step forward, which corresponds to the granting of an investment grade rating to Russia. According to them, traders and analysts will be able to understand the situation on the Russian foreign exchange market better. “It is an attempt to make financial markets more transparent. This is a good step, it will not have any negative impact on the market,” Ms. Orlova said. “I welcome this decision. The more openness there is, the more trust there will be in the information of the Central Bank,” Mr. Struchenevsky says.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1067066333674.html?nv=cd-divnews

Aus der FTD vom 27.10.2003

Edelmetalle: Händler sehen glänzende Zeiten für Gold
Von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach (Dem Interessenvertreter, TG)

Nach einem Preisanstieg am Freitag gehen die Händler und Anleger am Goldmarkt voller Optimismus in die neue Woche. Für die nächsten Tage erwarten Sie zumindest ein neues Sieben-Jahres-Hoch.

Am Freitag war der Goldpreis für kurze Zeit über die Marke von 390 $ je Unze gesprungen. Mehrheitlich prognostizieren die Experten, dass das gelbe Metall kurzfristig mindestens auf das Sieben-Jahres-Hoch von Ende September, das bei 393,30 $ gelegen hatte, springen kann.

Einige Marktteilnehmer rechnen sogar mit weitergehenden Gewi…

Sie verweisen auf die Wiederbelebung der Nachfrage von Fonds, die das Gold ebenso wie andere Rohstoffe zur Portfoliodiversifizierung einsetzen. Unterstützung fand das Metall aber auch durch eher kurzfristige Faktoren wie fallende Aktienmärkte und die wieder verschärften Spannungen im Nahen Osten. Dazu kam erneut ein schwacher Dollar. Mit Kursen von mehr als 1,18 $ gegenüber dem Euro war seine Schwäche eine der treibenden Kräfte hinter den Kursgewinnen beim Goldpreis der vergangenen Woche.

Eine Trendwende auf der Devisenseite dürfte allerdings auch wieder Druck auf das Gold mit sich bringen. Eine erste charttechnische Unterstützung läge in einem solchen Fall bei 380,00 $, darunter dann weiter bei 375,00 $.

weiter...

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1067066333674.html?nv=cd-divnews


*****

Der dauer Gold (Zweck) Pessimist Wrzesniok-Roßbach kann es nicht lassen, sogar eine allgemein bullische Aussage zu Gold im Titel, und dem ersten Abschnitt, gleich wieder mit negativen Gold Cabal (Zweck) Aussagen im unteren Teil zu vermischen. Der ungebrochene Aufwärtsdruck beim Gold scheint jedoch wenigstens selbst von einem Rossbach einige Kompromisse bei der Titelauswahl abzuverlangen.

Vielleich könnte ja die FTD mal der Ausgewogenheit wegen, au…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.ftd.de/pw/de/1067066334058.html?nv=hpm

ftd.de, So, 26.10.2003, 18:52, aktualisiert: So, 26.10.2003, 21:43

Dramatische Verluste für SPD bei Kommunalwahl in Brandenburg

Bei der Kommunalwahl in Brandenburg zeichnen sich für die SPD dramatische Verluste ab. Nach Zwischenergebnissen aus den Auszählungen zu allen Kreistagen und Stadtverordnetenversammlungen verlor sie im Landesdurchschnitt fast 17 Prozent.

Dagegen gewann die CDU fast sechs Prozent. Sie kam auf etwa 27 Prozent und löste die SPD als stärkste kommunale Kraft ab. Die PDS blieb mit etwa 21 Prozent nahezu konstant.

[valueinvestor]

Zum Euro-Anstieg letzten Mittwoch habe ich folgenden Erklärungsversuch eines Bankers in der FTD gelesen; ein echter BRÜLLER:


Zitat:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Es mangelte an marktbewegenden Konjunkturdaten, daher hatten die Händler Zeit, über das fundamentale Umfeld nachzudenken und nüchtern zu agieren, sagte Folker Hellmeyer, Devisenstratege der Bremer Landesbank
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Jodie1]

#7243

Ich weine keiner Regierung eine Träne nach, da hast Du mich falsch verstanden, Magor. Es gab in Deutschland schlicht und ergreifend noch keine, der man nachweinen könnte.

"Die Tröge blieben dieselben, die Säue, die sich daraus bedienen haben vermeintlich nur gewechselt!"

Dem kann ich voll und ganz zustimmen, das soll es aber dann auch von meiner Seite zur Politik gewesen sein.

CU Jodie

[Magor]

so langsam und behutsam mausert sich da einer :

[ThaiGuru]

October 27 - Gold $387.40 down 80 cents - Silver $5.17 up 3 cents

Gold And Silver Seem Poised To Go Much Higher

Everything may be taken from us except the last of the human…-----Victor Frankl ( Man`s Search for Meaning, and 32 psychospiritual books, Developer of existential psychology and logotherapy, Holocaust survivor )

GO GATA!!

After the drubbing JP Morgan Chase gave gold near the close on Friday, we had to expect gold to retreat today. It did, but I suspect The Gold Cartel is very perturbed this evening. As has been the case of late, they did not get much bang for their selling buck, especially after gold’s big run up last week. My colleagues and I were very impressed with the gold action, considering the dollar and stock market strength.

Positives for gold were the superb action of silver which rebounded smartly off its lows of $5.10 and the continued strength in the commodity pits. The CRB backed off to the unchanged mark of 249.34, but commodities continue to act BUBBLY. NOV feeder cattle closed limit up at 105.12. DEC cattle rose 2.55 cents to 101.70 (expanded limits). Platinum closed at 23-year highs at $746, up $8 per ounce. That’s where gold should be trading and will be once The Gold Cartel gets blown out.

CRB:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/X

The gold open interest rose 8219 contracts to 264,938. The s…

Silver finally looks like it is ready to rock. Remember the word is the silver producers are only going to sell lightly into the next silver move to the upside. Only what I hear, but something to keep in mind. Silver is surely one of the most undervalued "things" out there.

Silver:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C3

The silver open interest rose 1571 contracts to 92,260.

Gold and silver both seemed poised to go much higher.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Physical off take goes on.

Monday, October 27, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.52, PM $$4.39 (basis Ahmedabad), with world gold at $386.30 and $387. Above, and dubious, for legal imports. The only other importing point Reuters reports today, Madras, is slightly below import point. Several cities were closed today for the Diwali festival. Considering the steep rise in the world price of gold in the past couple of weeks, this is a remarkable performance, and very bad news for bears.

Turkey was surprisingly strong, too, based on the import num…

Japan, once again, was quite indifferent to world gold price action, not surprisingly in view of a 1.2 yen rise in the yen today. On volume equivalent to only 22,794 Comex lots (-7% down on Friday) open interest fell 804 Comex lots. The active contract slipped 6 yen and world gold was down $1.35 on the close at $387.

Significantly, Mitsubishi saw gold "capped by US/HK dealers selling." (NY traded 57,861 contracts on Friday; open interest leapt a notable 8,219 lots.)

Last week the concept that a dangerous option position had built up above the market was much discussed: Friday’s action in NT validated this, with two powerful surges, above $389, and again on $393:

"The metal quickly jumped to the 389.00 level where a wall o…

In ScotiaMocatta’s words. The difference this time, unlike earlier in the week, was that resolute sellers appeared ahead of the key levels. Perhaps these were commercial interests defending key levels – but it takes courage unusual in the commercial world to substantially increase a short position ahead of a possible breakout.

The volumes required were quite startling – a paper 26 tonne…

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[hpoth]

Hallo ThaiGuru,

laufen wir in die Korrektur hinnein? Denke ja ist aber auch nicht schlimm und war zuerwarten, ist eben eine kleine Sendepause.mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Sieht so aus als wäre es nicht unser Tag heute!

Bis auf die thailändische Mine TONGKAH HARBOUR (Thailand:THL.BK) die heute ein neues Hoch mit 9.85 THB erreichte, und immerhin mit plus 19.48% auf 9.20, bei 66 Millionen gehandelter Aktien geschlossen hat, gab es bei mir Gold Aktien mässig nicht viel gfreuts.

THL hat sich übrigens seit meiner ersten Empfehlung hier im Board vor ca. 5 Monaten bei 1.50, jetzt bereits mehr als versechsfacht, also über 500% gemacht!

@Tippgeber

Hast Du wenigstens einige THL gekauft?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

Ich wollte gerne etwas mitstöhnen!
Bis auf einen Glanzpunkt habe ich heute auch nur allzuwenig Freude an meinen "Glücksbringern".

Der Glanzpunkt, der macht allerdings heute ganz schön Furore, und damit einiges Wett ...
Thai, abgesehen davon, daß ich dies Papier vor einiger Zeit als einen verschmähten Silberling mit viel Potential entdeckte,
hast Du Infos zum Hintergrund der langsam rasant werdenden Entwicklung bei dem sich sonst so stoisch verhaltendem Papier???



+ 13 % alleine heute, nach einige Male +5 % die vergangene Tage,
trotz stärkerem USD und nachgebendem Silberkurs ... da muß doch was im Busch sein : - ))

hofft
Magor

[Magor]

Diese Meldung könnte den Euro wieder einen neuen Schwung verleihen,
und somit die Konsolidierung der Metallkurse beenden:

Mittwoch 29. Oktober 2003, 05:46 Uhr
Fed hält Zinsen tief - Kein Signal für baldige Änderung

http://de.news.yahoo.com/031029/71/3pyds.html

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Habe schlichtweg keinen blassen Schimmer!

Muss ja eigentlich schon einen wichtigen Grund für den starken Anstieg geben, habe momentan aber leider gerade keine Zeit danach zu suchen.

Die nächste GATA Meldung, sollte Dich und alle anderen Gold Bugs aber wieder etwas aufmuntern.

Dürfte bald wieder stark nach oben gehen mit den Goldpreisen, wenn das was darin steht über die weiteren riesigen Gold Kaufsaufträge zutreffend ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

October 28 - Gold $382.80 down $4.60 - Silver $5.07 down 9 cents

The Stalker to Strike Again This Coming Week

Last Friday’s gold bashing by JP Morgan Chase in the last half hour was a warning by The Gold Cartel to the longs they were going to have their hands full if they stayed that way. Gold has dropped virtually $10 off its late Friday high in two sessions since the cabal launched their attack.

Great Lakes was a huge seller this morning. Goldman Sachs was actually a small buyer. The cabal won another battle, but if my latest information is right, they will be on the defensive shortly.

Got a call today from my Stalker source. He tells me The Sta…

Hard for me to see gold dropping too much from these levels with this sort of buying to support the price. The cash market is already firm.

Gold has come all the way back to fill its breakaway gap. One that should be no more by tomorrow. Basis the DEC contract, it is $382.50. The floor wouldn’t mind seeing it filled, but they don’t want gold to take out $382 basis DEC. Not much room for error there.

The gold open interest fell slightly to 264,332 contracts, down 606.

Silver was weak all day with Irish (must have been our slanty side) the big seller. The ring was also a seller. Just when it looks like it is going to take off, silver always seems to be trashed. Not the usual suspects today either. Morgan Stanley was actually an early buyer and got stuffed on the session.

While the CRB action was neither here nor there, JAN soybeans rose 25 cents to close in contract high ground at $7.88. If there are any serious crop shortfalls in South America or in the US this coming crop year, we will surely have beans in the teens.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, October 28, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.66, PM $$6.31, with world gold at $385.60 and $386.35. Ample for legal imports. Diwali is still in progress: not all cities were open; all but one reported prices which would permit legal imports. For this reason one doubts that the option-encouraged sell-off initiated when NY opened this morning will get very far. The rupee closed at an import-facilitating 39 month high today.

Reuters today carries a story headlined "Asia Gold –Bars at discount, investors cut positions" which turns on Hong Kong bars having slipped to a 10c discount from a 30c premium last week. This of course reflects gold’s excursion over $390 at the end of last week: significantly bars in Singapore are said to remain at a premium:

Singapore actually does trade with India:

"Dealers said steady demand from India supported the market …

Japan remains indifferent as the yen edged up towards a multi-month high, not a situation conducive to an appetite for yen gold futures. Volume was virtually static, equivalent to 23, 805 Comex lots (up 4.4% from yesterday), open interest dropped a rather steep 3,476 Comex equivalent; the active contract closed down 8 yen and world gold went out $1.85 below the NY close. Once again, Mitsubishi reports "good" offerings of physical by regional dealers for London delivery, which is also noted by UBS. As noted yesterday, it looks as if the upper $380s attracts the attention of the familiar, resolute, seller. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 40,000 lots).

Today’s option expiry, and no doubt gold’s loss of momentum, has attracted the attention of more mundane predator funds. Reuters quotes Refco’s chief dealer saying that:

"one fund sold 3,000 to 4,000 contracts at the open, pushing…

In all this short term drama, AIG’s Bernard Connolly is rather isolated in pointing out that Germany appears to have decided to join the French in decisively wrecking the "Stability Pact" which ushered in the Euro (see Appendix below). This could well be the most gold friendly news of all.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


Appendix:


AIG Trading Group Inc.

October 28, 2003

By Bernard Connolly

Stability Pact

Schröder has just let the cat out of the bag in saying that the Ecofin must avoid conflict with Germany and France over excessive deficits. It is clear – as it was always going to be– that Germany will, in the interests of the Franco-German partnership, but also because Germany would be next in the dock, vote against the Commission’s article 104(9) notice on the French deficit in the Ecofin1. Germany and France will muster a majority, or at least a blocking minority; the Commission will be defeated, the Stability Pact will to all practical purposes be interred; the Dutch in particular will be seething with anger, with potential but not readily-predictable consequences for the referendum next year on the EU "constitution"; there will no longer be any source of official discipline in the euro area other than the markets; Portugal – whose deficit numbers and forecasts should be regarded with the most profound scepticism – will no longer have the cover of a focus on Stability Pact procedures against France and Germany, and that nakedness could become very uncomfortable.

The ECB will have to decide whether to engage in full-blown Stackelberg warfare with fiscal authorities. If they decide they must (though we are doubtful that they will) , the effect on euro interest rates would be unpleasant, and the impact on the euro would be ambiguous (memories of a "Reagan-Volcker" policy mix pushing some market participants to feel bullish the euro, but worries about fiscal sustainability and growth influencing, perhaps, rather more participants).

We intend to go into each of these issues in more detail in subsequent "Market Intelligence Updates".

1 The notice involves telling France that it must reduce the structural deficit by a specified amount, greater than incorporated in the French government’s own budget proposals. Only euro area countries can vote on this matter in the Ecofin, and two-thirds of the votes (on a weighted basis) are required for the notice to be adopted by the Ecofin. That means 21 votes out of total of 60 (France itself is not allowed to vote) are needed to block the Commission recommendation. Germany will vote for France against the Commission. Germany has 10 votes. The two other members of the emerging politico-military alliance, Belgium and Luxembourg, will also vote with Germany for France and against the Commission. That gives a total of 17 votes. France would then need just Portugal (with another five votes) or Italy (with 10 votes) to defeat the Commission. A snowball effect is quite likely, with only the Dutch virtually certain to vote with the Commission, though Finland and Austria would like to vote that way.

[Goldhamster999]

Reuters
Russia may auction huge gold deposit in Q2 2004
Wednesday October 29, 8:36 am ET


MOSCOW, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Russia may auction the rights to develop the world`s second largest undeveloped gold deposit, Sukhoi Log, in the second quarter of 2004, a deputy economic development and trade minister said on Wednesday.
"We think that there has to be an auction for Sukhoi Log, and according to the plan it will take place in the second quarter," Mukhamed Tsikhanov told reporters, showing a list of planned auctions next year.

Sukhoi Log, located in Siberian Irkutsk region, contains an estimated 1,029 tonnes of gold.

The deposit was due to be tendered in September 1998, but the tender was never announced, because of disagreements between various government bodies.

Several domestic and foreign companies are expected to bid. Russia`s metals giant Norilsk Nickel(GMKN.RTS), which is the country`s top gold producer, has repeatedly said it is determined to win the auction.

Norilsk believes it is in a privileged position after buying Lenzoloto mine alongside Sukhoi Log, with infrastructure which could cut substantilly cut investments in the Sukhoi Log development estimated at $1 billion.

[ThaiGuru]

Vermutlich hat`s heute wieder einmal mehr einige Gold Shorties voll auf dem falschen Fuss erwischt?

Le Metropole hat es ja bereits in #7259 angekündigt, dass noch eine massive Gold Kauforder aussteht. Das Ergebnis sehen wir trotz steigenden Welt Börsen, und kurzfristig gerade etwas stärkeren Dollar, am Gold Chart!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=company…



UPDATE 3

Newmont profit up fivefold on higher gold prices

Wed October 29, 2003 01:13 PM ET

(Page 1 of 2)

NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the world`s largest gold miner, said on Wednesday its third-quarter profit rose more than fivefold as gold prices increased, pushing its stock to six-year highs.

The Denver company reported third-quarter net income of $114.4 million, or 28 cents per share, 3 cents higher than average analyst forecast, according to Reuters Research, a unit of Reuters Group Plc.

In the year-ago quarter, it reported net income of $20.8 million, or 5 cents a share.

The price of gold bullion has risen some 12 percent so far this year, at a time when the U.S. dollar has weakened.

Caesar Bryan, who manages the Gabelli Gold Fund, said the market expects gold bullion prices to rise even more, as gold share indices have sharply outperformed bullion. He said the expectations for higher gold prices have pushed Newmont`s shares to their current levels.

Newmont`s stock is "very expensive relative to Barrick (Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) ) and Placer (Dome Inc. (PDG.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) ), but Newmont is a sort of must-own stock at this point because they are doing a good job and they are less hedged among their peer group," said Bryan, whose fund holds shares of Newmont. "That explains their relative valuation."

Newmont is now virtually hedge free after closing out about 10 million ounces of hedges since it took over Australia`s Normandy Mining Ltd. and Canada`s Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. early last year in deals that propelled it to the top of the gold producers` rank.

weiter...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=J3GIC3KM…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Cp59jubKbmZaYyJKZ…

October 29, 2003 13:04

Barrick Gold Announces Dividend

TORONTO, Oct 29, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- All amounts in United States dollars

Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) (TSX:ABX) (LSE:ABX) (PARIS:ABX) (Swiss:ABX) today announced that its Board of Directors has declared a dividend of US11 cents per share, payable on December 15, 2003 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 1, 2003.

Barrick is one of the world`s leading gold producers traded under the ticker symbol ABX on the Toronto, New York, London and Swiss stock exchanges and the Paris Bourse.

(Gegen Barrick Gold, laufen in den USA diverse Strafklagen w…

SOURCE: Barrick Gold Corporation

Barrick Gold Corporation
Vincent Borg, 416-307-7477
416-861-1509 (FAX)
[e-mail]

Copyright (C) 2003 Business Wire. All rights reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

October 29, 2003 (usagold.com)

NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $386.50 an ounce, up $3.70 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold moved back into the black in options-linked trade early Wednesday, getting help from a softer dollar while mulling the implications of the Federal Reserve`s continued easy stand on interest rates. The market was beset by last-minute position adjustments in London, where dealers had to declare their intention to take delivery against over-the-counter options by 0930 EST/1430 GMT. "We`ve got options expiration today so it`s bouncing around. There seems to some interest at $380 and $385," said a gold trader. Meanwhile, the dollar lost some ground after the Federal Reserve signaled it sees U.S. interest rates holding firm at low levels. "Prospects for a strengthening [in the dollar] outlook are slim -- which is bullish for gold," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

The liquidation of long positions kept the pressure on for a second straight day yesterday, with commercial selling also in the mix, as risk was reduced before the Federal Reserve concluded its regular interest rate meeting after the gold close. "I would say it was a little bit of dollar strength combined with month-end producer selling," said Andy Montano, a director at bullion dealer ScotiaMocatta. "Typically, at the end of a period producers clean out their closets to make sure they are selling everything they can to get their revenue recognized," he said. "There seems to still be a very pessimistic note on the outlook for the U.S. dollar," Montano said. "If that pessimism comes to pass then it makes sense that gold will go back up and test the highs and the all-important psychological level of $400 an ounce. That`s been the play all along," he added.

Leo Larkin, the S&P analyst who follows the industry, wouldn`t be surprised to see a sell-off in the metal -- and in gold-mining stocks as well. He cites a key technical factor: the inability of gold to close above the highest level of the current rally -- $389 an ounce, reached in February, 2003 -- based on prices in the spot market. Larkin says this failure, in the face of multiyear lows in the trade-weighted U.S dollar index, is a negative for gold in the near term. Still, Larkin notes that gold`s positive long-term fundamentals remain intact. He thinks investors continue to believe that equity markets are less likely to offer as much competition for investment demand as they did in the late 1990s, when double-digit annual rates of return were the norm. While the stock market has had a positive return so far in 2003, S&P anticipates that financial assets in general will be less rewarding compared to the 1990s. Larkin thinks erratic returns in the overall market may boost demand for gold and the mining stocks. In addition, the deficit between production and consumption should widen as output declines and physical demand for the metal likely increases. Larkin believes the low level of gold prices over the past few years has led to sharply reduced exploration and will likely result in lower production even if the metal price rises dramatically.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $385.40 an ounce, up from $382.70 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold bounced back in European afternoon trading on Wednesday after touching its lowest level for a week, but traders said bullion would struggle to break out through the upside unless it attracted broader buying interest. "The funds still look a bit isolated to me... I think the $385/388 area will prove pretty difficult for the market to get through," Simon Weeks, bullion director at ScotiaMocatta, said. "I think people who managed to sell ahead of the game in the low $390s or high $380s are saying `thank you very much`. But overall I think the trend will still be to sell rallies in gold," Weeks said. "$380 was always going to be a good buy. I bought there and I`m sure I was not alone," another trader said.

The expiry of over-the-counter options also added to the market`s volatility. Analysts remained broadly bullish, with some caveats for the short-term. "It increasingly appears that the very short-term outlook for gold has deteriorated over the past few days with option expiry and some speculative long liquidation pressuring gold a little," John Reade, an analyst at UBS Investment Bank, said in a daily note. But bullion still had a better than 50 percent chance of broaching $400 an ounce before the end of the year, he said. Weeks said market sentiment about the global economy was driving the price. "I think some people will have looked at the FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meeting yesterday and thought that rates are likely to remain on hold at current levels for some time, and as such the economic situation is still unclear and therefore they`ll continue to look at gold," he said.

"Despite the few attempts lower experienced the last few weeks, gold always managed to fight back higher," said Frederic Panizzutti, director of GoldAvenue, a major gold online trading company. "The market definitely remains confident about the short-term price upside potential," he said. Gold remains "within the bull run we have seen recently," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London. Moore sees prices finding "solid support" between $378 and $380, from which gold will likely "build a base before working higher again." Gold has held firm above support of $380/oz so far and its uptrend remains intact although short-term volatilities will continue due to the dollar`s movement, analysts said.


ASIA:

Spot gold fell $3.50 in Hong Kong to $383.15. Persistent sales by Japanese investors kept a lid on spot gold in Asia on Wednesday as dealers braced for more price declines following the yellow metal`s failure to retest recent seven-year highs. "The market is still disappointed. We didn`t get through that $393 level and we are now $10 lower than that," said Martin Mayne, associate director at NM Rothschild in Sydney. "I am not sure (if) it will be easy to try that level again unless we see a substantially weaker U.S. dollar," Mayne said. Dealers said spot gold would be hovering between $380 and $388 this week, depending on the movements of the dollar. "Today, we are going to see a tight range of $382 to $386, obviously in reaction to the FOMC`s decision not to ease rates," said one bullion dealer in Sydney. "Gold is very much focused on the currency and equities markets at the moment. I don`t see much activity in TOCOM either," said the Sydney bullion dealer. Some bullion dealers said the market`s bullish undertone was in place as producer buy-backs would continue to prop up gold prices, but added that profit-taking would linger. "If the market`s subsequent drop is supported at $373 and $365, then we will see another rally. But at this stage, a rise above $393 won`t be sustained," said a precious metals analyst in Sydney. A sense of bullishness pervasive among traders and analysts earlier in the week after gold briefly climbed above $392/oz Friday now appears to have faded somewhat. In particular, talk of an imminent climb to $400 is less noticeable. "The price action over the last couple of days has left the charts looking pretty heavy, with a further downside price correction looking likely," ABN Amro said Wednesday. ABN Amro and others see support for gold between $380 and $382, with a further layer near $378.

This year, most Ghatkopar shopkeepers have been doing booming business. According to traders, there has been at least a 20 to 30 per cent jump in sales in electronic goods and gold as compared to last year. It’s not only been a good Diwali for electronic goods dealers. Even the sale of gold jewellery has witnessed an upward swing. At Bharati Jewellers, Vasant Doshi, the proprietor, says the sales have shot up by 30 per cent this year. “This year, corporate orders formed a sizeable chunk of our sales. Also, the demand for antique jewellery and silver articles were better than last year.”

The yen remained near a three-year high against the dollar on Wednesday, although speculation of yen-selling intervention by Japanese authorities capped its rise. Market sources said the Bank of Japan may have intervened in early Asian trade on Wednesday, selling the yen against the dollar to stem further rises in the Japanese currency after it climbed to a three-year high of 108.09 yen per dollar. The yen`s rise came after strong Japanese output data, which also fanned talk that U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow may criticize Japan`s attempts to weaken its currency at a Senate hearing on Thursday. "The strong data added momentum to the trend of a strengthening yen, and we haven`t changed our view that the yen should rise to 105 per dollar by the end of the (calendar) year," said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. Some analysts also said recent upbeat economic data in Japan had intensified speculation that Snow would speak out against Japanese intervention to boost the dollar. "Snow has no choice but to be more critical about Japan`s currency manipulation than in the past because its massive volume of forex intervention cannot be justified now that the economy is improving much faster than expected," Tanase said.

China on Wednesday reiterated its oft-stated policy of keeping a stable yuan currency exchange rate, resisting U.S. pressure for a revaluation. "We will maintain the stability of the renminbi (yuan) exchange rate within a reasonable range," Guo Shuqing, vice governor of the People`s Bank of China, told a financial forum. "...In the long run, we are exploring a more reasonable mechanism of formation of the renminbi (yuan) exchange rate so as to realise the convertibility of the capital account," he added. "Liberalisation is inevitable but we should take a cautious and steady way," Guo said. China`s currency policy has been the target of growing criticism from politicians and manufacturers in the United States and other countries who charge the exchange rate is too low and makes Chinese exports unfairly cheap.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The U.S. military said Wednesday it had lost two more dead in a roadside bomb north of Baghdad. A spokesman for the U.S. Army`s 4th Infantry Division said the two soldiers died and one was wounded when their vehicle hit an explosive device about 120 km (75 miles) north of Baghdad late Tuesday. Three land mine blasts wounded seven Ukrainian soldiers, part of a Polish-led multinational division operating south of Baghdad, Tuesday. A Ukraine Defense Ministry spokesman said the mines had hit two armored vehicles during a night patrol.

Two Americans working for the CIA have been killed in an ambush while tracking terrorists in Afghanistan, the agency said Tuesday. Six Afghan militia soldiers were wounded in the fighting, but there were no coalition casualties, the military said. It was unclear whether the two incidents were linked, but the military did not explain why its account of the fighting was delayed by three days. Both were veterans of military special operations forces, the CIA said. The men worked for the CIA`s Directorate of Operations, which conducts clandestine intelligence-gathering and covert operations. The agency did not provide details of the ambush or the two operatives` mission.

Iran on Tuesday rejected a U.S. demand to hand over senior al-Qaida operatives, saying the terror suspects would stand trial in Iranian courts, state-run radio reported. The United States called the rejection an indication Iran is "supporting terrorism." U.S. intelligence suggests that al-Qaida figures in Iran include Saif al-Adl, a top al-Qaida agent possibly connected to May bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Abu Mohammed al-Masri, wanted in connection with the bombings of two U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998; Abu Musab Zarqawi, whom some U.S. officials describe as the key link between al-Qaida and toppled Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein; and Osama bin Laden`s eldest son, Saad. The al-Qaida operatives are believed to have fled to Iran from neighboring Afghanistan during the Taliban`s fall in 2001 or 2002.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Applications for mortgages to buy U.S. homes fell last week, a trade group said on Wednesday, suggesting that current mortgage rates may soon slow record-high home sales. The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said on Wednesday that its index of applications for mortgages to buy homes, on a seasonally adjusted basis, fell 5.7 percent to 363.9 for the week ended Oct. 24. The emerging trend suggests that by the middle of next year the housing and mortgage sector, which has fueled about two-thirds of economic growth since 2000, could stop driving growth, said Celia Chen, housing economist at Economy.com. Applications to refinance mortgages edged higher, but with the larger decline in purchasing applications, overall mortgage applications fell 0.5 percent last week, bringing the MBA`s market index down to 649.6.

U.S. chain store sales growth slowed but still progressed on purchases spurred by the unseasonably warm weather, Instinet Research said in its Redbook report on Tuesday. The pace of sales at major retailers slackened a bit on a year-over-year basis to a 3.3 percent increase in the week ended Oct. 25, after rising 3.5 percent in the preceding week, the report said.


WARREN BUFFETT:

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investment guru, has predict…

This year, he remains cool towards further share investments, despite the sharp correction in stock market values. Mr Buffett says this "dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of valuations reached during The Great Bubble" which he also referred to as "mass hallucination". A good friend of Bill Gates, he famously refused to invest in technology shares during the boom years that came to a sudden end in March 2000. As a result, Berkshire was sitting pretty after the technology bubble burst. Berkshire Hathaway has bought over 130 million ounces of silver bullion and it would not be surprising to learn if his holding of “other currencies” were to include more precious metals. Another well-known billionaire investor/speculator George Soros made similar comments that the “strong dollar policy” was dead and he also has invested in other currencies “including gold” as he believes that the U.S. dollar is caught in a downward spiral. Gold`s history as a safe haven goes back several thousand years, since it was first recognised as a currency.

Warren Buffett sees very few attractive investments at the m…

Earlier this year in his "annual letter to shareholders", Buffett turned his ire on the rapidly growing trade in derivatives, saying it posed a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy. The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks selling billions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or manage market risk. But Mr Buffett argued that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system. Some derivatives contracts, Mr Buffett says, appear to have been devised by "madmen". He warns that derivatives can push companies onto a "spiral that can lead to a corporate meltdown", like the demise of the notorious hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.

Derivatives also pose a dangerous incentive for false accoun…


Comment:

Gold regained some ground after the expiry of over-the-counter options in the last couple of days and a firmer U.S. dollar against the Yen though the Euro has made some attempts to over power the U.S. currency. Several “weak hands” from Funds and speculators were shaken out and others simply rolled over into forward contracts leaving the downside open for gold in the latest trading sessions on the spot market even as there was little fundamental reasoning for a major sell off other than simple end-of-month “book squaring”. However, yesterday’s FOMC meeting leaving nominal interest rates unchanged virtually assures that “real rates” (inflation minus the nominal rate – 1%) will remain negative, which is positive for gold. Recent strength in global equities have also diverted investor attention from hard asset investments. Some analysts have worried that higher market rates could lead to a return to forward selling by gold producers, however, that is very unlikely, especially with a very good possibility of a surge to the upside in precious metals pricing in the intermediate to long term. It becomes a matter of whether producers are willing to “chance it” or will it be a case of “fool me once shame on you – fool me twice shame on me”. Derivatives have been devastating for some producers bringing some to the brink of bankruptcy as gold prices surged off of the $252 an ounce lows in 1999. The foolish derivatives game may have come to an end. (For more on the devastation of derivatives see Warren Buffett’s comments above)

Continued geopolitical tensions as well as lingering uncertainty regarding the longer-term prospects for the U.S. dollar are expected to limit gold`s downward potential, while continued physical off-take from India and the Far East is expected to turn prices higher again with Marriage Season over the next few months and with the upcoming Christmas gift giving season in parts of Asia and the west. The debate continues over the results of gold and silver sales during the recent Diwali Festival in India with some reporting lower sales while others reporting 20-30% gains. With a better harvest season due to the end of a multi-year drought in Asia we could see a more sustainable buying period of precious metals well into the next year, and as jewelers gear up for production for expected Christmas and even the Valentine Day sales demand. Interestingly, last night I heard Bank One strategist Dianne Swonk detail rising demand for jewelry (precious metals and stones) in her assessment of the retail sector. Rather than giving dead flowers and fattening sweets, apparently some are looking for gifts that will “keep on giving” like jewelry boosting the fabrication demand side of the precious metals.

Note: As I will be gone for the next few days taking care of business for one – maybe two clients I will leave a section on Warren Buffett’s grim assessments of the equities and bond markets and the dismal prospects for the U.S. dollar for your perusal (see above).


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

Newmont Mining raises dividend by 25 percent

Wednesday October 29, 3:25 PM EST

NEW YORK, Oct 29 (Reuters) - U.S. metals and minerals company Newmont Mining (NEM) announced on Wednesday it had raised its quarterly dividend by 25 percent to 5 cents per share.

Newmont Mining Corp of Canada (NMC) also declared a dividend of 6.6 Canadian cents per share.

Newmont said the raise in dividend reflected its strengthening balance sheet and it would continue to evaluate its future dividend policy.


©2003 Reuters Limited.
RELATED QUOTES
Symbol Last Trade Change

NEM
43.71
+0.96

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews



FOR: CAMBIOR INC.

TSX, AMEX SYMBOL: CBJ

AND ARIANE GOLD CORP.

TSX SYMBOL: AGD

OCTOBER 29, 2003 - 15:44 ET

Cambior Inc. and Ariane Gold Corp. Report on Progress to Combine Companies

LONGUEUIL, QUEBEC--Cambior Inc. ("Cambior") and Ariane Gold Corp. ("Ariane") announce the signing, yesterday, of a formal merger agreement. Details of the proposed transaction were announced on September 26, 2003.

Ariane plans to hold a shareholder meeting on November 26, 2003 in Montreal at the Fairmont Queen Elizabeth Hotel at 11:00 a.m. to consider and, if deemed advisable, to approve the amalgamation pursuant to which each Ariane shareholder will become a shareholder of Cambior. If the amalgamation is approved by the shareholders and the applicable conditions to its completion are satisfied, each Ariane common share will be exchanged for 0.3436
of a Cambior common share (which represents one common share of Cambior for every 2.91 common shares of Ariane). The information circular in respect of the Ariane shareholder meeting is scheduled to be mailed to the registered shareholders on or around November 4, 2003.

Westwind Partners Inc. provided to the Board of Directors of Ariane a fairness opinion concluding that the amalgamation is fair, from a financial point of view, to the shareholders of Ariane.

Ariane and Cambior are pleased to also announce that the French authorities have consented to the proposed amalgamation.

Completion of the amalgamation is subject to the usual terms and conditions for such a transaction including, but not limited to, the approval of the amalgamation by two thirds of the votes cast at the meeting of the hareholders of Ariane. The merger transaction is scheduled to close during the fourth quarter of 2003.

Ariane`s principal asset is the Camp Caiman gold project located in French Guiana, South America. The merger will bring Cambior`s development and operating expertise to Ariane`s Camp Caiman project as Cambior intends to continue an exploration program to increase Camp Caiman`s mineral resources and prepare a final feasibility study and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) within the next year.

Cambior Inc. is an international gold producer with operations, development projects and exploration activities throughout the Americas. Cambior`s shares trade on the Toronto (TSX) and American (AMEX) stock exchanges under the symbol "CBJ". Cambior`s warrants trade on the TSX. Additional information on the Company is available on its web site at www.cambior.com.

Ariane Gold Corp. is a gold exploration company with projects in South America. Ariane`s shares trade on the Toronto Scotk Exchange (TSX) under the symbol "AGD". Additional information and previous press releases can be downloaded from its web site at www.ariane.gold.com.

Caution Concerning Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains certain "forward-looking statements", including, but not limited to, the statements regarding the closing of the merger transaction, the anticipated benefits of this transaction for Cambior, Ariane Gold and their respective shareholders, and Cambior`s plans for the Camp Caiman project, including the completion of a feasibility study (with the EIA).
Forward-looking statements express, as at the date of this press release, Cambior and Ariane plans, estimates, forecasts, projections, expectations or beliefs as to future events or results. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and there can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate. Therefore, actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such
statements. Risks and uncertainties that could cause results or future events to differ materially from current expectations expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, factors associated with fluctuations in the market price of precious metals, mining industry risks, risks associated with foreign operations, environmental risks and hazards, uncertainty as to calculation of mineral reserves,
requirement of additional financing and other risks referred to in Cambior`s and in Ariane Gold`s respective 2002 Annual Information Forms filed with the Securities Commissions of all provinces in Canada, and with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (as regards Cambior only), as well as the
Toronto Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange (as
regards Cambior only).

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
CAMBIOR INC.
Robert LaValliere
Manager - Investor Relations
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)
Email: [e-mail]
Web site: http://www.cambior.com
or
ARIANE GOLD CORP.
James Crombie
President & CEO
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)
Email : [e-mail]
Web site: http://www.arianegold.com

[ThaiGuru]

Hier haben wir noch eine Meldung von gestern die belegt, dass der Beitrag von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach in der Welt vom 27. Okt. 2003, in dem dieser Gold Handels- Banken Interessenvertreter behauptete, dass bei der Nachfrage nach Gold in Indien eine grosse Zurückhaltung zu vermelden sei, so nicht stimmen kann, da dem Bericht aus Indien zufolge, gerade das Gegenteil der Fall ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://web.mid-day.com/metro/ghatkopar/2003/october/67327.ht…



Sale of gold up by 20% during Diwali

By: Manthan Mehta
October 28, 2003

This year, most Ghatkopar shopkeepers have been doing booming business. According to traders, there has been at least a 20 to 30 per cent jump in sales in electronic goods and gold as compared to last year.



Says Nilesh Satra of Neelsun Electronics, 60 Feet Road, “This year, business has been really good. The sales, which started picking up during Ganesh Utsav, have continued till Diwali.” Though Satra refused to give exact figures, stating tax reasons, he claims that sales this year are up by 30 per cent as compared to last year.

“Till Diwali, we were sure that business would be dull, like… says Mayur Gada of Mayur Electronics, Vallabh Baug Lane.

It’s not only been a good Diwali for electronic goods dealers. Even the sale of gold jewellery has witnessed an upward swing.
At Bharati Jewellers, Vasant Doshi, the proprietor, says the sales have shot up by 30 per cent this year. “This year, corporate orders formed a sizeable chunk of our sales. Also, the demand for antique jewellery and silver articles were better than last year.”

[e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Die neueste Prophezeiung von Mahendra von heute!

Mahendra early this morning (Kenya time):

Dear Members,

Once again I apologise for not giving predictions for the last two days. Now bad time is already over so here are predictions from 29th to 31st Oct:

Gold:

Today will start rising in last one hour of trading session …

Silver:

This week silver will trade within the Range of $5.10 to $.5…

Platinum:

Friday it will touch new high of year, you will understand the relationship of Platinum and Venus in next week.

Stock market:

Final bull run is ending today in USA stock market. In last two hours of trading session market will change the path and turn to new path with bears because Mars will get down from bull leave bull alone, so there will be no instructor to guide bull and finally he will be trap by bears. Means from today market will start going down slowly for next two months. Europe and Asia will flow same path but Hong-Kong will stay on upper.

Currencies:

US Dollar will fall toward to new low from today or tomorrow any time against Pound, Euro and Yen, So my book prediction of touching YEN 94, EURO 1.24 AND POUND 1.78 will soon come true.

World events:

On Mondays email I said that two (Monday and Tuesdays) are bad for world especially Iraq. On Mondays attack in Iraq many died and fire in USA creating havoc. Next three days are also not good.

FIRE IN CALIFORNIA:

Sign of fire is not good in any house, factory, country or even our own cloths. Fire in California is giving negative sign to me for USA, In terms of safety and negative point I see:

1. Currency (US$) can collapse against other currencies, like after burning paper it doesn`t have any value because its turn into ash.

2. I have seen in news that many house burn, that is clear indications of insecurity, or small kind of attack or big accident in USA or against USA interest.

3. Billions of dollar losses because of fire, indicates any big scandal and stock market will collapse.

4. Fire in USA as a country, indicates bad period of ruler or king of nation.

5. In fire many small insect die, indicates sign of new disease or poison.

This sign is from nature, and from one of the five key elements. Fire is ruled by Mars, planet of war. I will soon write on this fire again.

Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma
www.mahendraprophecy.com

[ThaiGuru]

Wiso glauben eigentlich fällschlicherweise die grosse Mehrheit der Anleger immer noch, man könne mit Gold Aktien kein Geld verdienen?

Der HUI war doch heute schon wieder erfreulich!



HUI AMEX Gold Bugs Index (INDEX) 10/29/2003 4:02 PM

Last:
222.41 Change:
+6.11 Open:
216.49 High:
223.54 Low:
216.49 Volume:
n/a
Percent Change:
+2.82% Yield:
n/a P/E Ratio:
n/a 52 Week Range:
108.84 to 220.88

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031029/295840_1.html

Press Release Source: Bema Gold Corporation

Bema Gold Corporation: 2003 Third Quarter Results

Wednesday October 29, 4:28 pm ET

VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 29, 2003--Bema Gold Corporation ("Bema or the "Company") (AMEX: BGO - News; TSX Symbol: BGO - News; AIM Symbol: BAU) is pleased to report the results from its operations for the third quarter ended September 30, 2003. All dollar figures are in United States dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Highlights

Produced 70,217 ounces of gold
Revenue of $24.8 million
Cash…

Financial Results

Bema reported revenue of $24.8 million for the third quarter 2003 compared to $11.2 million for the same period last year. Cash flow from operations during the period was $8.2 million compared to $8 million for the third quarter 2002. The Company reported a net loss of $3.5 million ($0.011 per share) for the period primarily due to foreign exchange translation adjustments relating to the rand of $2.2 million. In the third quarter 2002 Bema reported a restated net loss of $823,000 ($0.004 per share).

weiter....

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031029/295840_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031029/295791_1.html

Press Release Source: Silver Standard Resources Inc.

Silver Standard Announces New Silver Discovery in Mexico

Wednesday October 29, 4:30 pm ET

VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 29, 2003--Silver Standard Resources Inc. is pleased to report a new silver discovery at its wholly-owned La Pitarilla project located approximately 170 kilometers northwest of Durango, Mexico. The outcrop discovery, called Cordon Colorado, is the first of three known silver zones on the property to be tested by trenching and drilling. Cordon Colorado measures approximately 700 meters in strike length, 200 meters in width and is open along strike and at depth.

weiter...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031029/295791_1.html

[clonecrash]

#7270 von ThaiGuru

Wiso glauben eigentlich fällschlicherweise die grosse Mehrheit der Anleger immer noch, man könne mit Gold Aktien kein Geld verdienen?

Davon kann ich ein Lied singen.

Letztes Wochenende wurde auf einer Party zu mir gesagt "das ist doch Gold" und es wurde gelacht.
Zudem noch viel mehr z.B. auch das Gold was altes ist.
Aber es ist gut, dass sie lachen, also ist es noch bei keinem angekommen, als Investment.
Erst wenn ich Fragen gestellt bekomme, zum Einstieg in Gold, dann wird es Zeit über den Austieg nach zu denken.

mfg

[Magor]

# 7272 Clonecrash

Oder, wenn die Bild Zeitung zum Einstieg rät ...
Grüner bzw. Niquet Gold entdecken o.Ä.
es gibt schliesslich ganz verlässliche Kontraindikatoren!

Thai, Du führst doch super Buch über alles in diesem Zusammenhang, hast Du jemals mal eine Hitliste erstellt über die Wertigkeit der Prophezeihungen der vielen Gurus (neben Dir : - )), die da alle ihre Weissagungen verkünden unter Gold-Eagle z.B. Butler, Droke, Rodin ...??)
Wäre doch mal eine interessante Rekapitulation ...


Mein "Glücksbringer" Clifton Mining hat doch gestern wieder einen Satz von guten 10 % gemacht!
Mit dem Unterschied zu den Vortagen, daß er diesmal all die anderen mitgezogen hat : - ))
Wenn das nicht ein gutes Omen ist? !!!

[ThaiGuru]

October 29 - Gold $386.50 up $3.70 - Silver $5.11 up 4 cents

The Stalker Stuns Gold Cartel

"The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt … --Chinese Proverb

Gold made no sense this morning, at least that is what I thought upon waking and seeing gold down $2.50. The dollar was weaker, the stock market called lower and many commodity prices were higher, with platinum and soybeans leading the way. On the Comex opening gold took out $380, but then quickly reversed course and took off for the upside. Was The Stalker in there doing his thing, as advertised in MIDAS yesterday?

BAM! Gold rose $7 off its opening low with little else going…

Thus my commentary may be a bit disjointed. Will make notations to you as I see them while I pack and finish my conference presentation. By the way, GATA has a surprise in store for the conference attendees and for Café members. It will be much fun and I will make it known during my presentation on Friday.

Back to The Stalker again. I have been at this commodities futures business a long time. NEVER do you get information in advance, tell everyone what is going to happen and why and THEN have it actually happen. I can’t say for sure it was The Stalker, but if it wasn’t, then it was the "Luck Of The Irish."

I wonder how much more The Stalker still has to buy out of his $1.1 billion dollar gold order?

As is often the case with gold, The Gold Cartel regrouped after being stunned by the swiftness of the price rise this morning. Deutsche Bank was the designated stopper this time. In addition, the floor tells me that when DEC gold hit $388.20, SOMEONE gave a monster sell order to AlL the dealers with orders to take gold down hard. They did as it dropped more than $2 in minutes. Manipulation of the highest order.

The crooks desperately want to keep gold from closing about $390, which leaves $400 gold only a hop, skip and a jump away. More and more talk is beginning to circulate that if gold can clear $400, we might get a gold melt-up. The gold derivatives neutron bomb could go off.

The gold open interest fell on yesterday’s setback to 261,51…

The gold chart is a beauty from a technical perspective. $380 support held perfectly after the latest cabal bashing and it appears to completing a rounding bottoming formation within the upside move. A close above $390 basis DEC could propel gold to $400 very quickly.

DEC gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

My brother Tim, a superb technician, sees it this way:

Hey Big Bro,

The daily Dec gold chart is very bullish. A classic bottom formation with gold breaking down three weeks ago, trading sideways for two weeks (as you predicted) and then spiking right back up. Also, a perfectly symmetrical head and shoulders formation which was completed today with the right shoulder at 380. And we had an outside day today with no help from the dollar or stock market. (Although outside days in gold in gold seem to hold little significance these days.) A close above Friday`s high of 393 gives a measured move to 420, which corresponds to the significant resistance level evident in the 1990`s.

Lastly, gold continues to work its way higher and very few people are paying attention. It`s a traders dream........... Nice call on The Stalker! Bro Tim

Swiss America
1-800-289-2646 x1019
[e-mail]

For years now MIDAS and John Brimelow have pointed out the key to the market was understanding the physical market was surging while The Gold Cartel (market managers) were trying to keep the price as low as possible. Today was a good example of how true that is. The dollar was quiet, the US stock market continued its big rally and there were no financial market disasters anywhere. Yet, gold skyrocketed off its lows in spectacular fashion until the bad guys showed up.

Speaking of good calls, Greg Pickup nailed the soybean market. Most all of his colleagues were bearish months ago. The USDA just announced another 275,000 tonnes is headed for China with 113,000 tonnes going to an unknown destination. Greg expects record exports to be announced tomorrow.

Soybeans took out the $8 mark. YES! They were last seen at $8.02, up 14 3/4 cents. The CRB is .67 higher at 249.74. Should take out 250 any day and run from there.
What could be more bullish for gold than rising commodity prices all over the place?

Silver continues to flop around, but still seems poised to go MUCH higher. Our silver sources on the floor like the techncial action, mostly because silver closed above the level it finished off the big reversal day when it rose to $5.37 and then tanked. They feel if silver can open above $5.12 tommorrow (basis DEC), it will head to the $5.65 area. Just an opinion.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

My brother Tim, a superb technician, sees it this way:

Hey Big Bro,

The daily Dec gold chart is very bullish. A classic bottom formation with gold breaking down three weeks ago, trading sideways for two weeks (as you predicted) and then spiking right back up. Also, a perfectly symmetrical head and shoulders formation which was completed today with the right shoulder at 380. And we had an outside day today with no help from the dollar or stock market. (Although outside days in gold in gold seem to hold little significance these days.) A close above Friday`s high of 393 gives a measured move to 420, which corresponds to the significant resistance level evident in the 1990`s.

Lastly, gold continues to work its way higher and very few people are paying attention. It`s a traders dream........... Nice call on The Stalker! Bro Tim

Swiss America
1-800-289-2646 x1019
[e-mail]

For years now MIDAS and John Brimelow have pointed out the key to the market was understanding the physical market was surging while The Gold Cartel (market managers) were trying to keep the price as low as possible. Today was a good example of how true that is. The dollar was quiet, the US stock market continued its big rally and there were no financial market disasters anywhere. Yet, gold skyrocketed off its lows in spectacular fashion until the bad guys showed up.

Speaking of good calls, Greg Pickup nailed the soybean market. Most all of his colleagues were bearish months ago. The USDA just announced another 275,000 tonnes is headed for China with 113,000 tonnes going to an unknown destination. Greg expects record exports to be announced tomorrow.

Soybeans took out the $8 mark. YES! They were last seen at $8.02, up 14 3/4 cents. The CRB is .67 higher at 249.74. Should take out 250 any day and run from there.
What could be more bullish for gold than rising commodity prices all over the place?

Silver continues to flop around, but still seems poised to go MUCH higher. Our silver sources on the floor like the techncial action, mostly because silver closed above the level it finished off the big reversal day when it rose to $5.37 and then tanked. They feel if silver can open above $5.12 tommorrow (basis DEC), it will head to the $5.65 area. Just an opinion.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com[/img]

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, October 29, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.07, PM $7.92, with world gold at $382.50 and $381.65. Ample for legal imports.

Despite BOJ intervention this morning, the yen continued to rise, discouraging appetite for yen gold futures. On overall TOCOM gold volume equal to 31,991 Comex lots (up 34% on yesterday, the active contract dropped 15 yen. Some commentators claim there has been Japanese liquidation: this is not apparent from the open interest, which rose by the equivalent of 235 Comex lots today.

However, the Trade House short, usually seen as the reciprocal of the public long, has dropped by 13% over the past week, so maybe there is some. More significant, probably, was the continued selling of physical by other Asia-time zone dealers, which Mitsubishi once again mentions as having capped gold today. But there was no continuation of NY’s downside momentum: world gold was up by 85c over closing NY at the end of the TOCOM day. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 42,000 lots.)

After the AM fix was out of the way today at $382.70, a resumption of yesterday’s selling pressure appeared, unhampered by the Fix mechanism’s tedious requirement for prompt delivery of physical. Just before the Comex opening spot looked likely to break $380: only to reverse ferociously as Comex got under way. A clearer example of option-related selling pressure than the last couple of days would be harder to cite; but the recovery got under way an hour before the OTC expiry at 9-30 NY time this morning, suggesting that there are other forces operating also.

(The Comex options expired at the close yesterday.)

Generally, the Bullion Bank commentators recognized yesterday’s action as option related, and continue respectful of gold’s strength. UBS says:

"OTC option expiry today at 09:30 NY time is likely to conti…

UBS in fact raises an interesting question:

"Options: Steady buying interest in five-year options has li…

There has also been a curious rise in long lease rates recently, as discussed by SG Commodities earlier this week:

"Short rates remain desperately low, while long rates are ri…

There is the intriguing possibility that Mega-hedgers like Barrick, embarrassed by their mis-reading of the spot bullion market into large scale exercise of their spot-deferred contracts, are overstraining the further dates by their roll-overs.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[loehle]

7273 clonecrash
Das kann ich nur bestätigen.
In meinem Bekanntenkreis sind mehrere
Anlageberater bei verschiedenen Banken.
Ich frage nach, wieviel Kunden Golminenaktien
in ihren Depot haben <1%.

[Spieler0815]

Gründe für den POG-Anstieg heute morgen: (aus einem anderen Board "geklaut"):

---------------------------------------
US-amerikanische* Fonds kaufen physisches Gold am Londoner Gold-Markt.

Diese Nachfrage hat die Plus-Veränderung ausgelöst: Quelle Goldhandel
der Bank Leu AG, Zürich.

----------------------------------------

[GoldenCentury]

@spieler
Das ist excellent,da kaufen sie ja ihr eigenes,verhedgtes Gold zurück!
UPS wird Sonderschichten einlegen müssen!

[GoldenCentury]

UPDATE 1-Gold prepares for attack on 7-yr highs

(Updates prices and adds analysts` comments paras 7, 8, 10-13)

By Meg Clothier

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Gold sailed through $390 an ounce on a wave of speculative buying on Thursday morning in Europe, traders said, repositioning bullion for a fresh assault on seven-year highs scored last month.

"A little bit of borrowing on the forward month sparked it off and then a major house went round buying, which lifted everyone. And when we went through $390 there were quite a lot of stops triggered," one trader said.

After a bull run last week, gold seemed to pause for a period of consolidation, dipping down to $380.00 an ounce on Wednesday, but by 1200 GMT it was trading at $390.00/390.75, having hit a session high of $391.25, and up from Wednesday`s New York close of $386.40/386.90.

Gold was marked up over seven dollars to $391.00 in the London morning fixing session from $382.70 on Wednesday afternoon.

"I imagine somebody`s going to make a stand for it to stay up for the day," the trader said.

Gold`s next challenge remained seven-year highs around $393 an ounce hit in September, although technical analysts have warned that a failed attempt on this level would leave a triple top on charts, which the market would see as a difficult hurdle.

"Looking to this afternoon, important U.S. economic data could see more volatility in the market," John Reade, an analyst at UBS Investment Bank said in his daily briefing.

He pointed to the release of U.S. third quarter GDP figures, weekly jobless claims, the minutes of the latest Fed rate setting meeting and the Treasury`s semi-annual report on foreign exchange as market-moving factors and said he expected a "fun-filled day".

Platinum also broke new ground to trade at $760.00/765.00, a fresh 23-year high, on the back of dollar weakness against the rand and the yen.

"$775 is seen as the next pivotal point," Alexander Zumpfe of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said in a daily note.

"The dimension of a possible correction (for which some participants have been waiting for a long time) might be limited as price dips might be used for bargain hunting," he said.

A strong currency in South Africa, the number one platinum producer, makes metal sales less profitable and a stronger yen allows Japanese consumers to keep buying at current price levels, Zumpfe explained.

The yen hit a three-year high against the dollar on Wednesday and the rand touched a 40-month peak against the dollar earlier this month.

Analysts said funds were increasingly speculating in both precious and base metals in the hope of benefiting from an upswing in prices in the early stages of a what some are calling a global economic recovery.

"You name it, if it`s metallic and shiny they seem to buy it," Reade said.

"There`s a lot of money that four years ago would have been heavily interested in equities, which having been kicked pretty hard in those markets is now seeking to diversify. They are playing other asset classes more than they probably have done in a decade," he said.

JP Morgan`s technical analysts, Robin Wilkin and Jordan Kotick, were watching gold carefully.

"We are certainly not suggesting that `the tail is going to wag the dog` here but remember the last gold rally gave us an early heads up for renewed commodity currency strength and is worth keeping an eye on," they said in a briefing note.

Silver rose to $5.19/5.21 from $5.12/5.14 and palladium was trading at $205.00/210.00 from $200.50/206.50.

[hpoth]

Die Bundesbank denkt schon wieder an Goldverkäufen lt FAZ vom 30.10.03, hatt sie denn überhaupt noch das Gold? Keiner weis es so genau und die Bank gibt ja auch keine Auskunft darüber wo es sich befindet.Vieleicht will Welteke ja nur wieder mal die Gold Bugs erschrecken.MFG hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Lassen wir ihn doch gewähren, mit seinen andauernden Drohungen das deutsche Staats-, und Volksvermögen Gold, immer gerade dann verscherbeln zu wollen, wenn der Goldpreis gerade dabei ist jeweils ein neues Preishoch zu erklimmen. Da er es schon zu viele Male angedroht hat, lockt er heute damit keinen Hund mehr hinter dem Ofen hervor.

Das deutsche Gold ist sowieso physisch zum grössten Teil weg, und ist eh bei Goldpreisen von 350.- Dollar und mehr pro Unze praktisch nicht mehr zu beschaffen, ohne dass die Goldpreise explodieren. Das Gold wurde vermutlich schon vor langer Zeit gegen niedrige Zinsen an verschiedene Institutionen, und Banken verliehen, die es dann zu damals noch bedeutend tieferen Preisen am Markt verkauft haben, um mit dem Verkaufserlös höher rentierende Anlage Objekte, wie unter anderem, auch Aktien auszuwählen. Das war früher ein riesen Geschäft. Zinsen von 1 bis 2% für`s Gold zu bezahlen, und damit 5 bis 8% Anleiherenditen einzustreichen, oder mit Anlagen an den Börsen, zumindest bis Beginn 2000, riesige Aktienpreissteigerungsgewinne einzustreichen. Die Goldverleiher haben nur einen grossen Ueberlegungsfehler gemacht, sie haben gelaubt Gold würde preislich immer tiefer fallen! Doch bei 250.- Dollar pro Unze war schluss, und Gold begann einen neuen langanhaltenden Aufwärtstrend, der uns bis heute auf 390.- Dollar geführt hat, und der uns sicher noch bedeutend höher, und weiter führen wird. Diese Goldleihenehmer würden sich heute vermutlich riesige Verluste einfangen, falls sie das Gold heute am Markt viel teurer zurückkaufen müssten, um es an die deutsche Bundesbank zurückgeben zu können.

Das heutige deutsche Volksvermögen Gold, befürchte ich, best…

Die Deutschen waren zudem seit dem Ende des 2. Weltkrieges realistisch gesehen nie mehr Herr Ihrer eigenen physischen Goldbestände, die ja zu allem Elend, auch noch nachweislich zum grossen Teil von den Amerikanern für Deutschland in den USA in West Point "gelagert" werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[valueinvestor]

Anschnallen für die Jahresendrallye?

Neuer Kommentar von Andreas Hoose hier auf w.o

[ThaiGuru]

@valueinvestor

"Neuer Kommentar von Andreas Hoose hier auf w.o"

Wo finde ich diesen Kommentar?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Wiso wissen die bei Comdirect eigentlich in 8 von 10 Fällen immer im Voraus wo sie die Gold Chartlinien ansetzen müssen, ohne dass der Gold Chart aus dem Rahmen läuft?

Vielleich auch schon jemandem aufgefallen?

Oben wenn der Goldpreis später fällt.

Unten wenn der Goldpreis später steigt.

Die passenden Spreads (Preisschritte) für den Tages Gold Han…

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Du machst mir langsam richtig Angst mit Deiner Clifton Mining!

Gratulation!

[ThaiGuru]

@clonecrash
@loele

Genau so ist es, wir Gold und Gold Aktien Investoren werden NOCH immer als Spinner und Aussenseiter belächelt. Und das ist auch gut so, denn wer zuletzt lächelt, lacht am besten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[hpoth]

Hallo Thai, stelles hier nochmal rein,#
Schweizer Nationalbankgold. Zum aktuellen Goldpreis von ca 16 600 Fr./kg beträgt der Verlust aus den bisher vorgenommenen Goldverkäufen trotzt Zinsertrag auf dem Erlös jetzt ca.1100 Mio Franken!!! ,Welteke lässt grüssen. mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Beim Silberpreis scheinen gewisse Leute auch kräftig draufzuhauen!

[hpoth]

Dann folgt auch Gold, die Amis werden es schon richten.
gruss hpoth

[Magor]

Danke für Deine Gratulation!
Allerdings,
: - ((
ich geniere mich ja schon fast Thai
: - ((

was soll ich schreiben ... ?
Will es ja nicht verschreien, aber
bis jetzt erstmal wieder + 8 % bei Clifton : - ))))


Heut Abend kann ich nicht weiter drauf aufpassen,
zwingender Feiertermin,
kannst Du ein Auge drauf werfen solange?


Nun will ich Dir in den Prophezeihungen gar keine Konkurrenz machen,
und Guru werden schon garnicht,
ich sehe ja hier, was so´n Guru ab und an zu kämpfen hat : - )
aber, vorige Tage bin ich resigniert
-und zugegebenermaßen mit Verlust-
aus Agnico-Eagle ausgestiegen ...

heute stürzt der Vogel doch im Sturzflug ab : - (


weißt Du da Näheres über die Gründe???

Vielleicht klappt das mit der Zeit mit dem Hellsehen, man muß nur lange genug dran glauben ...

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Du solltest das mit Agnico-Eagle nicht so tragisch nehmen!

Die Aktie ist auch im Vorfeld sehr stark gestiegen. Da darf sie doch auch etwas fallen wenn die neuen Zahlen viel schlechter als erwartet ausfallen.



Reuters
Agnico-Eagle stock tumbles after lower results
Thursday October 30, 10:11 am ET


MONTREAL, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Shares in Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (Toronto:AGE.TO - News) tumbled 20 percent on Thursday after the group posted a wider third-quarter loss and said it would not meet 2003 production targets.

[ThaiGuru]

Nicht dass mir jemand anfängt zu glauben, dass der Dollar Preis darum so stark Anstieg, weil die Amerikaner heute aus heiterem Himmel gleichzeitig das stärkste Wirtschaftswachstum seit 19 Jahren und den grössten Anstig des US Brutto Inlandsproduktes seit 25 Jahren bekannt gaben.

Dass dieser neuerliche urplötzliche Dollarpreisanstieg der Grund dafür war, dass die Gold-, und der Silberpreise ebenso urplötzlich absackten, solltet Ihr eigentlich ebensowenig glauben. Umso mehr nicht weil andere Edelmetalle wie Platin, und Paladium nicht etwa gefallen sind, sondern im Gegenteil weiter zulegen konnten.

Wer es trotzdem glauben will, nur zu, es ist nicht verboten.…

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031030/minerals_goldfields_4.html

Reuters

UPDATE

Gold Fields Q1 profit slides, sees slow rebound

Thursday October 30, 7:17 am ET
By Eric Onstad


JOHANNESBURG, Oct 30 (Reuters) - South Africa`s Gold Fields Ltd (GFIJ.J), the world`s fourth-ranking bullion producer, posted a worse-than-expected 40-percent fall in underlying first-quarter profit on Thursday, hit by lower yields at a key mine and higher costs.

The company said it was cutting production and closing shafts at operations with weak gold content, but cautioned that this would only boost margins slowly especially if the local currency remained strong.

Earnings per share excluding gains and losses on financial instruments slid to 29 cents during the three months to end-September from 48 cents in the previous quarter. This was well below a range of forecasts of 35-54 cents in a Reuters survey of seven analysts.



weiter....

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031030/minerals_goldfields_4.html

[bluemoons]

Silber-Rundbrief – Nr. 15 vom 27. Oktober 2003

Was hatte der Sommer dieses Jahr mit dem Silber gemeinsam?
Silber Fundamental betrachtet
Silber und Psychologie
Silber und die Terminmärkte
Die weltweiten noch verfügbaren Lagerbestände
Was unterscheidet hauptsächlich Silber vom Gold?
Silber und Inflation



http://www.weigl-fdl.de/body_rundbriefe.html#Rundbrief%2015

[ThaiGuru]

October 30 - Gold $383.80 down $2.70 - Silver $4.12 up 1 cent

JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Simultaneously Smash Gold

The great events of the world are, at bottom, profoundly uni…
Carl C, Jung (Modern Man in Search of a Soul)

If there was any doubt in you minds about The Stalker loading up on gold, this morning’s early London action should erase that doubt from your mind. Gold surged nearly $5 at the London AM Fix to $391. If I’m not mistaken, that is a new seven-year high for a London Fix. It also tells us the physical market is strong as can be.

So why did gold sell off? The broken record, of course. Gold was almost as firm in Ne…

Even if you never heard of GATA, I would think someone in the gold establishment would start asking why gold soars in the morning in very early US trading and then is stopped cold, or sent crashing down. Week after week, month after month. The same drill, over and over. I’m sick of writing about it and I’m sure you’re sick of reading it. Sorry, that’s the way it is. Revolting!

As expected, the gold open interest shot up yesterday, gaining 5663 contracts to 267,177. The Gold Cartel is up to their predictable old tricks. Cap, cap, cap – hold the fort as long as they can – and then trash gold after a couple of weeks to take out the specs after they have built up a sizeable position.

The comment from the floor is they can’t figure out what the heck is going on in the gold pits. Don’t know why. It’s plain as day. The Stalker and friends are buying and The Gold Cartel is selling.

As bad as the crooks leaned on gold today, it still closed $2 off its lows, a pattern we have seen all the way up. That`s constructive.

The big talk today in the financial world was about manipulation, not gold, currency:

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- China`s government is not manipulating the exchange value of its currency, the Treasury Department said in a closely watched report on Thursday.

Although the government`s semiannual currency report acknowledged Beijing uses a fixed exchange rate, it concluded that such a policy by itself does not meet the statutory definition of currency manipulation.

China has pegged the value of the yuan to the U.S. dollar by buying or selling dollars. Recently, there has been strong upward pressure on the yuan, and China`s foreign exchange reserves have risen to $346 billion in June 2003, up 43 percent from June 2002.

The Treasury report`s conclusion infuriated both Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee.

Many lawmakers believe Beijing`s currency peg gives Chinese imports to the U.S. an unfair advantage over American-made goods. They see a link between the surging U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China and the disappearance of more than 2 million manufacturing jobs over the past three years.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-NY., called the Treasury report "a whitewash."

"We do have a crisis in the manufacturing sector and I think it is undeniable that currency issues have played a significant role in that. We damage our credibility when we deny the obvious because of semantic or definitional disputes," said Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind….-END-

Just like the gold market: “a whitewash” and denying the obvious.

Secretary Snow and The Gold Cartel couldn’t let gold soar wi…

Gold continues to erupt. Those eruptions are becoming more violent and more frequent. It’s only a matter of time, and not too much time, before we close above $390 and streak for $400.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Noch so ein derivativ Instrument auf den Goldpreis, bei dem Nachfrage nach physischem Gold abgegraben wird, und der Kunde in Wirklichkeit nur Papier mit einem Zahlungsversprechen kauft. Mit Sicherheit hat das meiner Ansicht nach nicht viel zu tun.

Nur wer sich direkt einen Gold Barren kauft, geht auf sicher…



http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

Erstes Strategie-Zertifikat auf Gold: Der "Gold Tresor" der Dresdner Bank

Das neue „Gold Tresor“-Zertifikat der Dresdner Bank kombiniert ein hohes Maß an Sicherheit mit der Möglichkeit, an einem weiterhin steigenden Goldpreis überdurchschnittlich zu partizipieren.

Das Zertifikat hat eine Laufzeit von sechs Jahren. Die Anleger haben eine Kapitalgarantie von 95 Prozent des investierten Kapitals. Auch wenn der Goldpreis während der sechs Jahre fällt, liegt das Risiko bei maximal fünf Prozent. Andererseits partizipiert das Zertifikat sogar überproportional an Goldpreis-Steigerungen: Während der gesamten sechs Jahre wird die durchschnittliche Preisentwicklung ermittelt, indem man aus 72 Stichtagswerten (ein Termin pro Monat) das arithmetische Mittel errechnet. Liegt der Durchschnittskurs über dem Goldpreis bei Emission, erhält der Anleger 115 Prozent der positiven Differenz ausgezahlt.

Bei der Errechnung der Gewinne spielt außerdem die Entwicklung von Euro und Dollar eine Rolle: Die Stichtagswerte geben den Goldpreis in US-Dollar an, das daraus errechnete Mittel wird in Euro umgerechnet.

Das „Gold Tresor“-Zertifikat können Anleger noch bis zum 03. November zeichnen.

Weitere Informationen: http://ad.onvista.de/959687.pdf


HANDELSBLATT, Donnerstag, 30. Oktober 2003, 14:05 Uhr

[Spieler0815]

@Thaiguru
Wenn solcher "Schrott" gekauft wird, dann heißt das für mich nur, daß wir eben noch nicht so weit sind, daß genügend Leute wirklich Angst um ihr Geld haben, sondern vielmehr weiterhin Angst haben,Gewinne zu verpassen. GOLD PHYSISCH kaufen, das sollen doch die anderen, die Inder, die Japaner, die Chinesen... Man selber möchte gewinnmäßig, weil man ja ach so klug ist, davon profitieren. NOCH geht es uns also vielleicht gar nicht so schlecht. Ich gebe Dir mit Deiner Einschätzung in Sachen Gold, Finanzsystem usw usw. absolut recht, aber vielleicht dauert es noch ein bißchen länger, als erwartet, bis alles wie eine Seifenblase zerplatzt. Was ich nur meine: Offenbar sehen 99 Prozent selbst der Anleger, die sich für Gold interessieren, in Gold eine Möglichkeit, wie mit jeder anderen Aktie usw. auch, Gewinn zu erzielen (was ja auch sicherlich legitim ist), haben aber die Funktion von Gold dabei überhaupt für sich selber noch nicht begriffen und realisiert. Heute in Gold, morgen schnell wieder auf eine Tech-Aktie aufgesprungen..
Solange jedenfalls, wie praktisch kaum ein Anleger in Deutschland (Europa) versucht, Gold phys. zu kaufen, solange die heutigen jungen Erben eher bestrebt sind, im Erbfall Opas goldenen Notgroschen schnellstens loszuwerden, so lange wird der Goldpreis auch vermutlich noch nicht so explodieren, wie er sollte und müßte.
Vielleicht sind in der Tat die Chinesen schlauer. Dann dürfte die Welle unaufhaltsam ins Rollen kommen. Warten wir es also ab.
Grüße vom Spieler

[ThaiGuru]

@Spieler0815

Befürchte Du hast mit Deiner Analyse völlig Recht. Wir sind noch nicht so weit, dass die Masse der Anleger erkennen können was noch alles auf sie zukommen wird.

Physisches Gold ist leider für die meisten Leute immer noch …

Was für ein Trugschluss!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Die "Schwächephasen" beim Gold scheinen immer kürzer zu werden!

Vom heutigen Tief zum Hoch für`s Gold doch ein beachtlicher …

[Magor]

Für Deine gestrige Wachablösung vielen Dank Thai,
+ 13 % hat mein "Glücksbringer" Clifton Mining gestern gemacht : - ))
Heute Verschnaufpause nach dem mühelosen Gipfelsturm ...
nun fragt es sich, Nerven behalten?
Was meinst Du?
Die Rahmenbedingungen sind excellent ...

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Einstandspreis zur Beruhigung rausziehen, Rest stehen lassen.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Spieler0815]

Nun sieh`sich einer den Silbertageschart an: Exakt mit Schluß in London geht es in Amiland senkrecht nach unten. Zufälle gibt es..ts ts ts....

[ThaiGuru]

October 31 - Gold $384.10 up 30 cents - Silver $5.07 down 7 cents

GATA Announces Presidential Candidacy in New Orleans

Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons.… Woody Allen

It is time for outrage. As forecast earlier this week, The Stalker was going to be on the move, buying his $1.1 billion dollar worth of gold in a week’s time. Talk about good information! Gold shot up $5 in the US even though the US stock market and dollar were on the firm side. It was a surging physical market which took gold higher.

However, once the physical market closed in London, JP Morga…

At least there was Frank Veneroso at the New Orleans Investment Conference saying GATA was right all along.

The good news is The Gold Cartel continues to show their des…

Word to me was that when gold broke hard, a surge of gold buying hit the pits, led by orders emanating out of India. My floor sources tell me the late buying was furious in nature. It had to be. Gold closed $3 off its lows. That means the crooks have hit gold with all they had the past two days in their attempts to take bullion below $380 again and they failed.

Perhaps they will win in the short-term, but the battle is now raging in almost epic fashion and the cabal is not making much progress. They are not getting much bang for their gold buck. These moves up early and down late are dramatic and very noticeable. Many of the big spec players out there must see what is happening. The physical market is not drying up. It is strengthening. The big investment players ought to see how increasingly desperate the shorts are to keep gold from closing above $390. It shouldn’t be long before many more sharks move in for the kill. The Gold Cartel is losing their crooked touch.

Gold has held up very well under considering the scope of the bad guy’s attacks and with the dollar and US stock market on the firm side. If the stock market swoons and the dollars resumes its downtrend, The Gold Cartel could be overpowered.

The gold open interest was little changed. Yesterday’s stunning reversal didn’t produce spec liquidation.

The dollar closed at 92.88, up .42. The euro fell .61 to 115.55.

Morgan Stanley turned silver seller and was the reason for silver’s drop.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

India v. Who?

Friday, October 31, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.90, PM $$7.38, with world gold at $383.50 and $384.80. Ample for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: the same applies to the other Indian cities monitored by Reuters, except Madras, which is dubious. Bombay’s stock market closed up 10.2% for the month and 45% for the year; India is booming and a “wealth effect” seems to be at work bolstering appetite for bullion. A report from the elite residential area of Bombay actually speaks of gold demand 20% higher than last year.

See:

http://web.mid-day.com/metro/ghatkopar/2003/october/67327.ht…

Driving gold down with the largest consumer is in this mode is going to take effort.

Japan, which completely missed yesterday’s excitement, and which is closed on Monday, continued unimpressed. Volume did jump by 56% to a modestly significant 37,870 Comex equivalent. The active contract rose 1 yen, open interest fell the equivalent of 1,028 Comex lots, and world gold at the close was 65c below NY’s last, at $383.75. (Volume in NY yesterday was estimated at 48,000 contracts.)

Dealer commentators display a confused (perhaps embarrassed)…

There are those, of course, who consider it naïve to expect gold could break out to multi-year highs on a day when the US Treasury Secretary was obliged to humiliatingly grovel before America’s Asian Paymasters. Currencies not manipulated! What is a policy of not allowing full convertibility, like China’s, except manipulation?

Japan’s intervention, of course, is known to all. Anyone seriously following the gold market would be foolish not to read today’s efficient exposition of this view at the Mineweb site:

http://www.mips1.net/mgn03.nsf/Current/80256DCE0038757A85256…

A world in which World Trade Centers get blown up and Americ…

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Achtung - Achtung - Achtung - Achtung!

An alle Gold Bugs die bereits E-Gold als Zahlungs System verwenden.

Es gibt neuerdings seit kurzer Zeit einen E-Mail Wurm der es genau auf diese Gold Zahlungssysteme, respektive die dazugehörigen Daten, und Codes auf Eurem Computer abgesehen hat.

Dieser (Virus) E-Mail Wurm heisst "Mimail.c" und versteckt s…

Also besser diesen Anhang nicht anklicken, und E-Mail sofort löschen, sonnst könnte es passieren, dass Euer E-Gold kurze Zeit später weg ist!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

Moin Thai, genauer, bei Dir: Mahlzeit!

Das kriminelle Ausnutzen der bisher noch nicht vollkommenen
Sicherheit von e-Gold ist das eine,
das gezielte Unterwandern der Entwicklung das andere.

Wollte Deinen Rat befolgen,
Einstandssumme raus und rüber auf Drooy ...
jedoch beide Limite verfehlt ...
also, warten auf Montag.

Meine jüngsten Diskussionen mit meinen Bankern
aufgrund unbequemer Fragestellungen,
zuerst mündlich, mittlerweile schriftlich,
bin ich argumentiv in der Ecke:
Bei uns ist jeder Anrechtschein gedeckt,
wenn Sie uns nicht vertrauen ...
sollten Sie zu anderen Banken ...

sowie die LMC Meldungen und ihre Aktivitäten
drängen bei mir eine Idee auf:

Die wenigsten von uns hier, auch nicht diejenigen,
die an die reale Beeinflussung des Cabals glauben,
haben ihre Anlagemetalle im Keller liegen.
Das wird und kann sich aus vielen Gründen und damit
verbundenen Schwierigkeiten auch nicht ändern.
Das ist es auch, worauf die Großbanken bauen.
Wenn das so unveränderlich Fakt ist,
sollten diese Banken, meine ich,
zumindest durch klare Fragestellungen der Kunden,
per Briefe, noch besser, wenn es ginge, über die Presse,
durch geforderte Stellungnahmen in die Öffentlichkeit gezerrt werden.
Da müssten doch Heerscharen mobilisiert werden können,
die im Stillen schon sehr lange eine Faust in der Tasche machen
angesichts ihrer Hilflosigkeit!

Könnten ahnungsvollere, als ich es bin diese Idee
aufgreifen und vielleicht zur Ausführungsreife
entwickeln???

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Du glaubst es vielleicht nicht, aber ich arbeite gerade weiter daran!

Uebrigens seit mehr als 3 Jahren

Gut Ding will Weile haben

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/mgn03.nsf/Current/80256DCE0038757A85256…

Gold conspiracy collapse is just a matter of time - Murphy

Posted: 2003/10/30 Thu 17:00 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

NEW ORLEANS -- Bill Murphy owns the Le Metropole Café Web publication and heads up the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.

Mineweb: Bill, thanks for agreeing to this interview. Let’s get straight to it – gold is $130 per ounce higher than its 2001 lows. Surely that is sufficient evidence that there is no conspiracy to suppress the price of gold?

Bill Murphy: Au contraire! Two years ago when we met with gold around $265, the GATA camp was saying where the price of gold was headed and why. You could barely find a bull in the mainstream world in those days who would talk about gold even clearing $300.

The price of gold is shooting up despite the efforts of the …


Mineweb: Why would the “cartel” allow gold to go up at all if the avowed purpose is to demonetize it?

Bill Murphy: The Gold Cartel has no choice. They are running out of physical gold to keep the price down. Significant findings of the GATA camp reveal that half the central bank gold is gone. The work of Reg Howe, James Turk and Frank Veneroso shows that 15,000 tonnes of central bank gold have been swapped or lent out, more than three times the amount postulated by the gold establishment, like Gold Fields Mineral Services. It is this loaned or swapped gold that has been used to suppress the price.

This is astounding and the ramifications are huge. It means …

How can GATA be so right and the gold establishment so wrong on the gold loan/swap numbers? Simple.

The International Monetary Fund has instructed the central b…


Mineweb: You were among those who predicted that once gold rose much above $300 per ounce, there would be a short covering panic to send gold soaring. Similarly, you forecast that JP Morgan was imminently close to collapse because of reckless derivative trading. Why shouldn’t those failed forecasts be the fatal flaws that knock you out as a reputable gold prognosticator?

Bill Murphy: Gold shot straight up to $388 when it broke above $330, jus… Panic was in the air when the Comex increased its margin requirements, and the Gold Cartel went on the attack soon after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow took over from Paul O’Neill. From the day O’Neill resigned in early December of last year until early February, the gold price soared, as there was no one at helm of the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund, a key Gold Cartel operative.

As far as Morgan goes, yes, GATA raised a stink about their … Morgan felt compelled to make a public statement on the matter -- it got so bad for them. Something unusual has happened since then. Morgan’s official gold derivatives position, according to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has gone down quite a bit, yet the gold derivatives on the books of the Bank for International Settlements have been going way up. How can this be as gold producers have reduced their hedge books from about 4,000 tonnes to 2,500 tonnes according to most accounts?

From calendar end of Q1/2002 to Q1/2003, the gold producers … From Q4/2001 to Q4/2002, the notional value of the gold derivatives at the BIS rose dramatically, from $231 billion to $315 billion, up 36 percent. They went up $36 billion in the last half of 2002 alone. We are waiting for the latest BIS numbers. The mainstream gold world refuses to reconcile this dichotomy because the obvious answer is that the Gold Cartel is using derivatives to manipulate the gold price.

My guess is that Morgan felt the heat from GATA and their gold derivatives were shifted to other banks. Meanwhile, Morgan`s interest rate derivatives have continued to rise.


Mineweb: For an argument to be valid, it must be falsifiable. What is falsifiable in Gata’s case; is it possible that you are wrong and how will we know it?

Bill Murphy: Hundreds of years ago it was thought the Earth was flat. Once it was discovered the Earth was round, you cannot go back and say maybe it is flat. Since Chris Powell and I started GATA five years ago, the credibility of our assertions has grown immensely. We are not lone wolves these days. Some of the most highly regarded people in the industry routinely talk about the manipulation of the gold price. They include:

*John Embry, president of Sprott Asset Management. Before going to Sprott, John was one of the world’s most successful portfolio managers at Royal Bank of Canada.

* Ferdinand Lips, a co-founder and managing director of the Rothschild Bank in Zurich. In 1987 he opened his own bank, Bank Lips, and he is the author of the acclaimed book “Gold Wars.”

*Jim Sinclair, known as “Mr. Gold” in New York when the gold price was on its way to $800 in 1980, who constantly speaks of the Gold Cartel and the ESF’s price-rigging operations.

* Frank Veneroso, world-renowned financial market consultant and author of "The Gold Book in 1998." At first Frank derided the idea of manipulation of the gold price, but now he speaks of official sector gold market management and says GATA was right all along.

*GATA supporters such as former trial lawyer Reg Howe, who su…

You`ll be able to prove that GATA is wrong when you can have full access to the books and vaults of the central banks and the dealings of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. You should try holding those public agencies to account half as much as you seek to hold GATA to account. See if you can even get them on the phone, much less audit them.


Mineweb: History shows us that market manipulation, even on a minor scale, unravels very quickly and spectacularly. Do you really believe team Greenspan is so skilled and powerful that it can, year-after-year, orchestrate interest rates, gold shorting, economic statistics, money supply, stock and bond markets, currencies, futures etc to create a false but pleasing outlook that dulls the public into complacent satisfaction?

Bill Murphy: Yes, but Greenspan is just one cog. This is what the “strong dollar policy” of the United States has been all about. Everyone talks about this policy, but, incredibly, no one explains exactly how it is carried out. What did the United States DO to effect the “strong dollar policy?” GATA knows: They suppressed the gold price. This has been the cornerstone of the “strong dollar policy.” Now that they are running out of physical gold, the policy is failing, no matter what they say in Washington.

The “strong dollar policy” was formulated by Clinton Treasur… Most likely Rubin got the idea from a paper co-authored by his deputy and successor, Lawrence Summers, when he was a professor at Harvard. It was titled “Gibson’s Paradox and The Gold Standard.” Summers analysis is that “gold prices in a free market should move inversely to real interest rates.” By keeping the gold price in check, Summers figured, the United States could hold down interest rates, attract money to the U.S., stock market, and bring prosperity to the United States at the expense of the rest of the world.


Mineweb: If the cartel is as all-powerful as GATA suggests, then surely you should trade in its slipstream?

Bill Murphy: Not when you know they are going to blow up. Investors who know what GATA knows and have invested accordingly the past couple of years have cleaned up. We knew what was going to happen and why and told everyone so. Back then you could buy the junior golds and quality explorations on the cheap and many at bankruptcy prices. My two biggest holdings, Golden Star Resources and Samex Mining, have risen more than 1300 percent.

The KEY is to know what GATA knows. Once the light bulb goes… The big picture becomes clear. All that is required is for investors to do their homework and study our findings. Compare our record to the official price forecasts of the bullion-banking folks. Most of them have been neutral to bearish all the way up and remain that way. Two years into a bull market and the gold establishment still can’t get it right. Disingenuous or inept? Take your pick as far as most of them are concerned.


Mineweb: If gold should be much higher, what is the fair price and how do you arrive at this level?

Bill Murphy: For the past couple of years I have mentioned $800 to $1,00…

Frank Veneroso is the smartest supply/demand numbers man I have ever known. He felt the fair commodity price of gold in 1997 was $600 an ounce, prior to the Gold Cartel`s forcing the gold price down from the $400 area. After all that has transpired these past years, it is easy to envision gold doubling that number.


Mineweb: The longevity of the Blanchard suit against Barrick and JP Morgan owes a good deal to the quirkiness of the Louisiana legal system. Do you think the case will ever get past a circuit court appeal?

Bill Murphy: That`s not correct. The Blanchard suit is in federal court in New Orleans, not a Louisiana state court, and follows the same rules of procedure as the federal court in Boston where Reg Howe filed the lawsuit underwritten by GATA. The sole important difference in the Blanchard case is the lack of government defendants. The Howe suit was dismissed in large part on grounds of "sovereign immunity." While Barrick and Morgan tried to get the Blanchard case dismissed on "sovereign immunity" grounds, they failed, because Blanchard is suing no government agencies. So GATA is very hopeful about the Blanchard case and supports it completely.


Mineweb: Why do you think some of the companies that have sponsored Gata won’t admit it to their investors?

Bill Murphy: While many companies are glad to be on record as GATA suppor…

*The major gold producers need certain bullion banks to do their project financings. GATA is explaining to anyone who will listen that a few of these banks, like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, have manipulated the gold price to the detriment of the gold companies and gold shareholders and have violated U.S. anti-trust laws in the process. So some mining companies don`t want to get on the wrong side of banks that can make it very hard for mining companies to get credit. People are understandably afraid of the big banks.

* Bullion banks are the agents of governments in suppressing t…


Mineweb: What Gata successes would you like to remind us about?

Bill Murphy: One of the biggest was our campaign against the big hedgers,… From the feedback we have received, it`s clear that we put a great deal of pressure on various hedgers to reduce their hedge books. We urged investors to dump the big hedgers in protest for their contributing to the low gold price. The famous novelist Arthur Hailey ("Airport," "Hotel," etc.) announced he sold all his Barrick sales and bought Gold Fields. Many others acted accordingly. What a great move by Arthur, who is an ardent GATA supporter. On a similar note, three years ago Newmont traded on a par with Barrick. Now Newmont is trading more than $22 higher than the heavily hedged Barrick. Investors who listed to GATA are knocking the ball out of the park.

Our biggest accomplishment was alerting the investment world… GATA`s African Gold Summit in Durban, South Africa, on May 10, 2001 was a big success. Five nations attended, as did the major South African gold producers, the National Union of Mineworkers, the South African Reserve Bank, the South African Broadcasting Co., and other major news organizations. It was prime-time news in South Africa.

We alerted the gold-producing nations in sub-Saharan Africa to what the Gold Cartel, including the U.S. government, was doing and the damage it was causing. Ferdi Lips put it best in an interview earlier this year with Jim Puplava of http://www.financialsense.com:

“I think you’re exactly right and I would even say it’s a cr… I have followed this in Africa, and especially in the gold-producing countries of Africa. They were under severe pressure because the gold price was capped for many years. Manipulated. And I think it is absolutely stupid because in all these countries you could have had prosperity. Even in the United States and in Canada a prospering gold-mining business is beneficial. There is a multiplier effect. Other industries benefit too. Salaries go up and more tax receipts come in. So it is absolutely stupid to destroy this industry, and it was almost destroyed.”


Mineweb: Are you confident that we’ll see $400 an ounce this year still?

Bill Murphy: $400 or $500? We might have seen $400 by now if JP Morgan Ch…

[Magor]

Warum tust Du den Gedanken so mit links ab Thai?
Sicher kenne und schätze ich Deine Bemühungen, auch die von GATA und vielen der gutmeinenden Schreiber in den verschiedenen Boards, Foren usw.!
Allerdings, nach jahrelangem Kampf gegen Windmühlenflügel sind anstatt greifbarer Ergebnisse nach wie vor nur Hoffnungsparolen, anstatt Erfolgsmeldungen zu lesen, bzw. wahrzunehmen wie:
"Gold conspiracy collapse is just a matter of time - Murphy"

Haben diese Bemühungen die Macher bisher in die Ecke getrieben, sie von ihrem kriminellen tun abzulassen bewegt?
Klagst Du nicht selbst über den Woche um Woche stattfindenden ungenierten und ungehinderten Abverkauf???
Den hat all die Hoffnung und all das dagegen anschreiben bis Heute nicht verhindert, noch nicht einmal behindert!

Sicher ist etwas erreicht, es gerät gaaanz langsam ab und an in den Focus auch seriöser Medien.

Die Frage, die ich aufgeworfen hatte war, ob nicht so langsam andere Waffen ins Gefecht eingebracht werden sollten. Nicht anstatt, sondern zusätzlich zu dem Wirken vieler.
Meine Vorstellung ist, daß ein Versuch zur Mobilisierung der "entrechteten" Massen der Anleger in Metallen stattfinden sollte. Bei denen gilt aber die leider natürlich vorhandene Trägheit abzubauen!
Aus meinem Berufsleben kenne ich insgenüge, daß das Überzeugen des Gegenüber das eine ist, auf seine schriftliche Bestätigung warten das andere. Die kommt häufig nicht, aus Bequemlichkeit, oder sonstigen Ängsten heraus. Diese Bestätigung habe ich meist schon vorbereitet in der Tasche ..., oder ich schreibe sie ihm am Besprechungsende eben vor ... der Erfolg spricht für sich!
Hier meine ich damit, daß die einzelnen gegen ihre Hausbank vorgehen, unangenehme Fragen aufwerfen kaum werden, ausser, sie haben etwas in der Hand, und auch die notwendigen Argumente ...

Darüber mal nachzudenken, ob das nicht etwas brächte, darüber wollte ich eine Diskussion anregen, und auch über das wie!

Anderes Thema:
Hatte gerade mit Begeisterung einen Reportagefilm angesehen: " Das Gold von Tuva"

Du meine Güte ...
Stelle sich mal einer vor, die Skythen, bzw. Xiung-nu, wie es m.E. besser heissen sollte, hätten statt der Gold-Grabbeigaben seinerzeit gültige Schuldverschreibungen oder Dollarnoten : - ) beigelegt ..
keine Sau würde sich für die Grabfunde interessieren ...

Grüße
Magor

[Magor]

damit es sich nicht so abstrakt anhört, was ich meine:

Deutsche Bank, UBS, und wer auch immer hat vorgestern durch Vorwärtsverkäufe wieder in den Markt eingegriffen ...
GATA, oder wer Zugang hat zu den Fakten und den Zahlen, sollte veröffentlichen:
Deutsche Bank, besitzt ... mio. oz Gold, mit vorgestrigem Verkauf sind die Aussenstände ... mio.oz

Die Unterdeckung wäre offensichtlich.

Anlegerin Tante Emma nimmt Vordruck No. 83: Brief an mein Institut, oder "Offener Brief" als Leserbrief über Zeitung xy:
Liebe Frau Deutsche Bank,
erstens, haben Sie durch Ihren Leerverkauf mit drücken des Preises am .. mich als Ihren Klientel geschädigt, zweitens, erbitte ich Aufklärung darüber, wie meine bei Ihnen befindlichen Anteilrechte abgesichert sind, gegen welche Sie nach folgendem Beleg ...
physisch verfügbares Material nicht besitzen ...

oder so ähnlich ...
Ideen, auch viel bessere vor !

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Du glaubst gar nicht wie fest sich Deine Wünsche zur Selbsthilfe mit den meinigen treffen. Du musst meine Antwort bezüglich "gut Ding will Weile" haben total falsch interpretiert haben. Ich wollte Dein Anliegen sicher nicht links abtun, im Gegenteil ich finde es toll was Du selbst tun willst, und das Du auch von anderen aktivere Mithilfe forderst.

Da gibt es nur ein riesiges Problem, die meisten Leute die hier lesen, wollen sich ganz einfach nur informieren über`s Goldgeschehen, sie möchten auch profitieren von den interessanten Tip`s und Empfehlungen, oder einfacher gesagt sie wollen Geld verdienen. Mit Geld verdienen ist im allgemeinen Papiergeld gemeint, also "Luft", oder "Fiat Money" (Es werde Geld). Sich aktiv an irgend etwas beteiligen, das zur Aufklärung dieses Skandals der seit mindestens 1980 anhaltenden Gold Preis Manipulation beiträgt, das wollen die allerwenigsten. Und schreiben wollen sie leider schon gar nicht, weder an ihre Bank, noch an ihre Zeitungsredaktion, oder an ihre lokale Radio Station.

Die meisten Leser glauben fälschlicherweise, dass sie selbst überhaupt nichts ausrichten können gegen die Urheber dieser Goldpreismanipulation.

Was viele Gold Bugs hier im Board aber machen ist auch nicht zu unterschätzen, sie kaufen heute physisches Gold, und leisten einen, wenn auch kleinen Beitrag dazu dem Gold Cabal das "Beschei...." etwas schwerer zu machen.

Diese Gold Bugs werden weltweit täglich immer mehr, quer dur…

Du hast sicher völlig Recht mit Deiner Forderung nach noch mehr aktiven Unterstützung gegen die Gold Preis Manipulation einiger weniger einflussreicher, und mächtigen Institutionen. Meine aktive Unterstützung besitzt Du bereits seit langer Zeit, auch wenn vieles was ich dafür tue, nicht hier im Gold Board veröffentlichen kann.

Die GATA hat übrigens gestern die Unterstützung eines Präsid…

Es passiert schon etwas im Hintergrung, das kannst Du mir glauben, doch noch etwas mehr Druck, und Aufklärung über diese Machenschaften der Zentralbanken und Bullion Banken zum Schaden vieler, und zum Nutzen ganz weniger, dürfte sicher nicht schaden.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[sterngleiter]

Hallo Thaiguru,

habe gerade Deinen Bericht über mangelnde Unterstützung
der hier lesenden "Goldinteressenten " gelesen und fühle
mich entsprechend angesprochen und auch selbstverständ-
lich verpflichtet Eure tollen Bemühungen - bzgl der Gold-
manipulationen - zu unterstützen.

Also Thaiguru, sei bitte so gut und gebe uns ein paar
- praxisnah - auszuführende Tips, und ich bin überzeugt
das sich viele von uns - die Deine Berichte überaus
schätzen u. nutzen - Deinen Ratschlägen anschliessen.

Im übrigen nochmals vielen Dank für Deinen (u. vielen
Anderen ) nimmermüden Einsatz!!!!!!

[ThaiGuru]

@Sterngleiter

Wie wäre es damit?

Jeder interessierte Leser hier im Thread kopiert sich untenstehenden Text im Orginal, oder nach Gutdünken verändert, setzt die Adresse einer Zeitung ein, und verschickt sie per E-Mail, oder noch besser per Post.

Es dürfen natürlich auch mehrere Adressen sein.

Adressen von Zeitungen, Magazinen, und Zeitschriften könnt Ihr hier unter diesem Link finden:

http://www.germany-pool.de


Gruss

Thaiguru



An die Zeitung XY


Bitte höflich um Veröffentlichung dieses Leserbriefes


Goldpreis Manipulation!

Sehr gehrte Redaktion


Seit einiger Zeit kann ich immer mehr Stimmen vernehmen, die auf eine Manipulation der Gold und Silber Preise hindeuten.

Eine überparteiliche Organisation die sich zum Ziel gesetzt hat diese vermuteten Manipulationen und Misstände beim Gold und Silber Preis aufzuklären, und zu bekämpfen, heisst Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee "GATA".

Auf deren Homepage http://www.GATA.org befinden sich frei zugänglich, viele interessante englischsprachige Informationen die diese Vorwürfe belegen, und untermauern.

Auf der Homepage http://www.lemetropolecafe.com findet man täglich neueste Hintergrund Berichte und Kommentare zum Gold Preis Manipulationsgeschehen. Jederman erhält dort gratis 14 Tage Testzugang. Auch auf vielen deutschen, und amerikanischen Homepages, und Diskusionsboards, wie z.Bsp. http://www.goldseiten.de , http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum , http://www.weigl-fdl.de/page11449.html , oder http://www.silver-investor.com/ werden diese Gold, und Silberpreis Manipulation angeprangert, und auch harte Diskusionen darüber geführt.

Eines dieser Boards ist auch www.Wallstreet-Online.de! In deren Gold Board findet man ebenfalls wichtige und aktuelle Informationen auf englisch und deutsch, zum Wirtschafts-, Gold-, und Silbergeschehen:

*** http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/community/board/forum.php… ***

Auf der weltbekannten Mineweb homepage http://www.mips1.net/mgn03.nsf/Current/80256DCE0038757A85256… erschien am 30. Okt. 2003 ein Interview mit Bill Murphy, einem der beiden Gründer von GATA, das an Aussagekraft zur Gold Preis Manipulation nichts an Brisanz vermissen lässt.

Zum Schluss nun noch meine Frage an die Redaktion der xxxx Zeitung:

Warum wird ein so allgemein interessantes, und brisantes Thema wie die vermutete Gold-, und Silberpreis Manipulation, von Ihrer Redaktion einfach weitestgehend ignoriert, und totgeschwiegen?


Hochachtungsvoll


Ihr treuer Leser xxx e,

[Magor]

Wenn auch etwas ruhig hier am Wochenende, vielleicht kommen ja noch, neben der, die Presse anzuschreiben, einige gute Ideen auf zu den Möglichkeiten, die man vor allem als Kunde einer der betroffenen Banken doch hat, und diese auch wahrnehmen sollte.
Bei mir ist das der Fall, und ich habe als Kunde auch Rechte! Ich habe, vor allem in heutiger Situation, wo erheblicher Zweifel begründbar, ein Recht zu wissen, ob meine bei Bank XY existierenden Papier-Anrechte auch gedeckt sind durch vorhandene physische Ware.
Die Druckserei ist herrlich ... wie schon geschrieben, angeraten wurde mir schon, woanders hin zu gehen, wenn ich kein Vertrauen hätte ...
Nein!
Ich sehe keinen Grund zu wechseln! Als Kunde habe ich auch das Recht mich vergewissern zu dürfen, ob mein Geld noch da ist, wo ich es vermute!
Wenn mein Berater das nicht kann, dann sollen meine mittlerweile schriftlich gestellten Fragen bitteschön von Ebenen beantwortet werden, die das können, ich habe da Recht auf Auskunft, und da lasse ich mich nicht abwimmeln mit Antworten wie:
Das kommt alles nur von Verschwörungstheoretikern, Sie müssen uns schon vertrauen ...
Ja, Vertrauen gerne, jedoch Kontrolle ist bei Zweifel nötig!

Das kann und sollte einjeder, der vermeintlich gesicherte Metall-Anteile bei irgendwelchen Banken besitzt!!
Das Bohren eines einzelnen bewirkt wenig, von mehreren schon vielleicht etwas, von vielen oder ganz vielen schon bestimmt mehr, insbesondere, wenn es sich rumspricht, was bei den Antworten herauskommen könnte!

Ich komme allerdings langsam in die Situation, meine Befürchtung, Behauptung belegen zu müssen gegen lapidares Abschmettern wie:
Das stimmt ja garnicht ...
Dazu fehlen mir jedoch Zahlen und Fakten. Die mir bekannten Veröffentlichungen benennen zwar die Täter, welche die "Leerverkäufe" tätigen in zig-facher Menge des tatsächlich existierenden physischen Materials, allerdings fehlt mir ein vorlegbarer Beweis der Lage:
Z.B. DB hat X-Menge in seinem Besitz, jedoch Menge Y bereits verkauft ...
Diese mir fehlenden Fakten müssten als Argumentationshilfe aufbereitet und zugängig gemacht werden von Gremien, wie der GATA, oder Interessierten, die Zugang haben zu solchen Zahlen! Solche belegbare Zahlen würden sicherlich einige ermuntern, diese unbequemen Fragen auch an ihr Institut zu stellen, und auf Antwort zu bestehen!
Solche Fakten würden dann auch leichter von der Presse veröffentlicht werden, die sich freiwillig mit Institutionen dieser Größenordnung lieber nicht anlegt, bei nicht 100% nachweisbarer Ausgangslage, und dann lieber den Schwanz einzieht und auf ein berichten über eine noch so heiße Story lieber verzichtet.
Daran könnte und sollte man etwas ändern!
Wir, und Foren, wie Kitco und Gold-Eagle z.B. hätten die Möglichkeit genügende zu mobilisieren!

Ich denke ungerne wie ein Hammel, der insgeheim hofft, daß der Schlächter müde wird, bevor er selbst drankommt! Da entsinne ich mich doch der Fähigkeiten, daß ich denken und auch treten kann, womit ich mich zumindest zu wehren versuchen sollte!

Grüße
Magor

[voracon]

@thaiguru

es hat alles seine zeit

solange gold und silber künstlich unterdrückt wird und verachtet wird, würde ich als goldbug froh und glücklich sein

wenn jeder gold und silber als die einzig wahre sieht und aktien als totaler schrott angesehen werden, weis ich was ich mache

die herausforderung ist doch eine ganz andere:

- sich nicht vom goldenen bullen vor dem grossen move ausschütteln lassen

- unterwegs noch ein paar bucks mit trading zu verdienen und nicht riesige verluste aussitzen zu müssen

- rotationen im comodity bereich mitmachen : erst canada dann australien, erst gold , dann silber, dann öl

es gibt viel zu tun und wer jetzt lieber auf den mainstream hört, der soll das gerne tun, die aufgabe ist doch geld verdienen und nicht missionieren

[Magor]

Hallo Voracon,
der von Dir eingebrachte Aspekt des Tradings hat Berechtigung, allerdings aus meiner Sicht, der heavy in Metall investiert ist, ist eine Bewertung des Metalls nach seinem ihm zustehenden Wert das Ziel!
Dem künstlich und mit kriminellen Machenschaften gedrückten Preis kann ich trotz dem Trading-Aspekt nichts Positives abgewinnen, denn, wie Du es schreibst:
"Die Aufgabe ist doch geld verdienen und nicht missionieren"
Wenn mein Besitz an Gold z.B. reell je Oz 500 USD Wert sein könnte, durch die Machenschaften allerdings mal 250, mal 390 ist, dann bin ich schlichtweg betrogen worden durch die Manipulation dieser Banken, die dies verursachen, mögen die mit ihrem Traden noch so gutes Geld verdienen! Einzig gute daran evtl.: ich kann das Material subventioniert kaufen ... aber, dann? Dann aber warte ich doch auf das sich Durchsetzen einer reellen Preisbewertung ... und warte, ... und warte ...
und das nun schon seit einiger so langer Zeit : - ((
Trading hin, Trading her ...

Grüße
Magor

[voracon]

meine "quellen":

www.financialsense.com
www.jsmineset.com
www.trending123.com

also ich glaube lange brauchst Du nicht mehr zu warten

alles hängt am us-$

die beste versicherung gegen eine $-entwertung ist kaufen von canadischen goldminen für die amis und später dann australische minen, die sind aber (noch) nicht an us-börsen notiert

der can-$ läuft besser gegen us-$ als der euro, und ich bin positioniert um diesen event mitzunehmen ohne währungsrisiko, das halte ich für wichtig

also momentan würde ich trotz der siegel vorgebrachteten überbewertung, canadier übergewichten und wenn die wirklich explodieren in australier und südafrikaner gehen

und der meiste bang ist in den "fortgeschrittenen" juniors und wahrscheinlich danach in den frühen juniors, also auch hier eine rotation

gold und silber ist es wohl im moment und dann später öl und landwirtschaftliche commodities

[hpoth]

Hallo Thai,

habe Deine Aufforderung wahrgenommen und heute eine E-Mail an der Redaktion FAZ-Sonntagszeitung verschickt, bin mal gespannt ob dieser Brief auch wirklich veröffentlicht wird.gruß hpoth

[Cashlover]

Was ist denn jetzt los?

Warum zappelig werden?

Das Anlegergeld wandert aktuell zwar in allemöglichen Anlagen und Gold wird vergleichsweise vernachlässigt, aber was soll`s?

Spätestens wenn die Überbewertung in den Indices komplett ist und auch die der Immofonds, wird es den Schub beim Gold geben, auf den viele hier

warten.

Ich meine, richtig billig ist Gold doch trotz der aktuellen Aktienhausse nicht geworden.

Wer hier auf eine echte Schwäche gewartet hat, um physisches Gold einzukaufen, wartet bislang mal vergebens.

Irgendwann wird jeder, der auf Portfoliodiversifikation setzt/setzen muß durch eine sehr enge Tür gehen müssen.

Ich will hier keine Durchhalteparolen loswerden, aber irgendwie fühle ich mich mit meinem "nichtsnutzen" physischen Goldreserven absolut wohl.

Letztendlich steht vor jedem Interesse an Kapitalvermehrung das Interesse des Kapitalerhaltes allein schon deshalb gehörte auch physisches Gold, sozusagen klassich, in jede Diversifikationsstrategie.

Ich sehe die Sache eher so pragmatisch, wie voracon:

aktuelles Niveau noch zu Zukäufen nutzen, der Sprung über die nächste Zielzone, 400.-us$, ist bereits greifbar und zwar auch ohne Veröffentlichung dubioser Machenschaften des Goldkartells.

mfg

[hpoth]

#7320, recht hast Du, sehe es ähnlich,irgendwann wird man sich sagen müssen hätte ich nur zu diesen Preisen gekauft.Aber so ist es halt mal wenn und hättich, also tun wirs, gruß hpoth

[Stimme_des_Herrn]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Toll, hoffe Du erhälst wie bei Zeitungen eigentlich üblich, auch ein Honorar falls Dein Leserbrief veröffentlicht wird.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Cashlover]

Wer sagt`s denn:

grade in der "Dresdner Sonntagsbörse" auf n-tv, äußert sich der geladene Vermögensverwalter zur amerikanischen/deutschen Staatsverschuldung.

Kann nach seiner Meinung nur durch Inflation gelöst werden.

Hört/ließt man in letzter Zeit öfter mal.

Fiat money at it`s best.

Laßt diese Meinung mal an Popularität gewinnen (bislang wurde das doch als Genörgel der Crashgurus abgetan).

Da werden einige an Goldanlagen nicht umhinkommen.

Auf die Angst, Barvermögen durch Inflation in die Wertlosigkeit abdriften zu lassen, ist Verlaß!

Diese Angst hält doch kein Damm des Goldkartells auf, da werden eher die weißen Fähnchen geschwenkt

Wie schon erwähnt:

Trotz > halbjähriger Aktienhausse, keine wirkliche Schwäche beim POG.

Offensichtlich denkt keine Sau daran, aus dem Gold in shares umzuschichten.

mfg

[ThaiGuru]

@Cashlover

Dieses Zitat von Dir verdient es nochmals hervorgehoben zu werden!

"Auf die Angst, Barvermögen durch Inflation in die Wertlosig…

Sag ich doch

Gold kaufen!

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031102/markets_japan_precious_1.html

Reuters

TOCOM gold market closed on Monday for holiday

Sunday November 2, 5:30 pm ET

TOKYO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Tokyo gold futures market is closed on Monday for Culture Day, a national holiday. Trading will resume on Tuesday.

The benchmark October 2004 gold contract (JAUV4) on the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange (0#JAU settled up one yen at 1,344 yen on Friday after wavering between 1,330-1,345 yen.
Other months either closed unchanged or settled up one to
three yen.

[ThaiGuru]

Gold:



Silber:



Dollar:

[Kuestennebel]

Ich erwarte dass der Goldpreis im Laufe des naechsten Jahres auf $450 steigen wird

[hpoth]

Kann ja sein aber das sind doch alles nur Projektionen, Gold nähert sich jetzt der kritischen Zone.Sicher ist es spannend.Gut wäre es wenn der Goldpreis im Fixing in London
p.m. von 370 $ hält und nicht mehr unterschritten wird,ein Abrutscher $ 360 - 365 ist aus technischer Sicht noch haltbar, weniger dürfen es nicht sein.
Die kurzfristige Stützung liegt jetzt zwischen $ 376 und $ 380.Wichtig wird es sein,das daß September-Hoch bei $ 391 klar genommen wird.Dann kommt Gold nämlich in eine massive Widerstandszone die auf die Jahre 1993/94/1995
zurückgreift.( wie hier schon an anderer Stelle besprochen wurde.)Sie reicht etwa bis $ 418,vieleicht auch bis 420,wo Anfang 1990 die Spitze lag.Wenn Gold diese Zone durchbricht,könnte sich ein mächtiger Bullenmarkt entwickeln.Aber ob das beim jetzigen Zeitpunkt schon gelingt ist ehr unwahrscheinlich.Dafür fehlen eigentlich die Voraussetzungen wie eine masive Dollar-Abwertung,und das die großen Baisser in Panik gerieten und eindecken bzw. eindecken müssen.gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

Hier ein Auszug aus G&M November 2003
Ausichten für 2004:Auch wenn der Dollar bis auf weiters schwach bleibt, wird doch im nächsten Jahr eine kräftige Erholung kommen- und damit eine empfindliche Korrektur der Goldpreis in Dollar ( weniger oder gar nicht in Euro gerechnet).Wenn sich dann später die langfristige Dollar-Baisse fortsetzt,wird ein Ausbruch des Goldpreise in Richtung $ 500 schwer zu vermeiden sein.mfg hpoth

[ulfur]

Nachfrage aus China beflügelt die Aktienkurse

Goldrausch bei Rohstoffwerten

Von Ingo Narat, Handelsblatt

An den Rohstoffmärkten geht die Post ab. Die rasant steigende Nachfrage nach „Commodities“ aus China und die anziehende Konjunktur in den Industrieländern treiben die Preise. Außerdem schürt das Comeback der Rohstoffe als Anlageform neben traditionellen Aktien und Anleihen die Hausse.

FRANKFURT/M. Gewinner sind die Aktien von Minengesellschaften, die überproportional von den Preisanstiegen der Rohstoffe profitieren. Das Interesse konzentriert sich auf Asien, dort besonders auf China, Südamerika, Russland und Afrika.
Es geht um Industriemetalle wie Kupfer und Nickel oder Blei, um Gold und Silber, aber auch um Energieträger und Agrarprodukte. Viele Rohstoffpreise erreichten gerade mehrjährige Höchststände, für Platin wird so viel gezahlt wie seit fast einem Vierteljahrhundert nicht mehr. Und bisher lohnten Aktienengagements: Der weltweite Index für Minen- und Metallaktien gewann seit dem Tief im Herbst 2001 75 % .

Noch steckt der Aufschwung nach Meinung einiger Experten in den Kinderschuhen. Aber nur wenige Asset- Manager wagen sich auf das schwierige Terrain der Rohstoffwerte. Dazu zählen die international renommierten Vermögensverwalter Felix Zulauf in Zürich und Marc Faber in Hongkong. Für Faber ist das Comeback der Rohstoffe sogar „ein Meilenstein in der Finanzgeschichte“. Auch Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch und seit kurzem die Deutsche Bank legen ihren Kunden Rohstoffanlagen ans Herz.

„Die Rohstoffnachfrage aus China ist heute fünfmal so hoch wie vor zehn Jahren – einfach phantastisch“, sagt Evy Hambro, Manager von Rohstoffaktienfonds bei Merrill Lynch Investment Managers in London. Er setzt u.a. auf Kupfer, Nickel und Zink. „Die qualitativ hochwertigsten Minen und Explorationsprojekte findet man in den Schwellenländern“, sagt Hambro. Er nennt Beispiele wie den chilenischen Kupferwert Amerigo Resources und Brasiliens Goldproduzenten Jaguar Mining. Auch wenn in Hambros World Mining Fund Standardwerte wie die in London notierten und breit aufgestellten Konzerne Rio Tinto und BHP Billiton am stärksten gewichtet sind: Die Musik spielt anderswo, zumindest gemessen an den Kursbewegungen. An der kanadischen Risikokapitalbörse beispielsweise haben sich die Kurse einiger kleiner Minen und Explorationsfirmen in wenigen Monaten vervielfacht.

Darüber hinaus zieht jetzt ein Megaprojekt das Interesse auf sich. Es geht um die Erschließung der Ressourcenvorkommen in der Mongolei. Pionierarbeit leistet hier die in Toronto notierte Ivanhoe Mines, deren Kurs sich in den letzten Monaten vervierfachte. Faber ist seit längerem fasziniert von dem Kupfer- und Gold-Explorationsprojekt von Ivanhoe im mongolischen Teil der Wüste Gobi. Jack Jones, Rohstoffexperte bei CIBC World Markets, sagte nach einer Informationsreise in die Mongolei: „Dort gibt es geradezu unglaubliche Explorationsmöglichkeiten – das Kursziel von Ivanhoe haben wir auf 15 Dollar angehoben“. Wie sehr die Mongolei die Phantasien beflügelt, zeigt die jüngste Aktion von Barrick Gold, einem der weltgrößten Goldförderer. Barrick erwarb gerade einen Anteil an einer kleinen kanadischen und in der Mongolei aktiven Firma.

Barrick hat – wie andere große Gesellschaften – auch ein Auge auf das rohstoffreiche Russland geworfen. Das Unternehmen kaufte gerade die russische Goldmine Highland Gold. „In dem Land gibt es exzellente Investmentchancen“, sagt auch Hambro. Politische Risiken, wie gerade am Fall Yukos, nimmt er gelassen und denkt langfristig: „Deswegen verschwindet das Gold ja nicht aus dem Boden.“

HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 03. November 2003, 09:32 Uhr

[ulfur]

US-Wirtschaft fährt mit Vollgas der Rezession

Die Rückkehr der Gier

Von Torsten Riecke

Matthew King neigt nicht zu Übertreibungen. Sein Hemd ist schlicht weiß, sein kleines Büro in der Citibank-Filiale vor den Toren New Yorks wird von Grautönen bestimmt. Wer nicht gerade danach sucht, entdeckt nicht einmal die Auszeichnungen des Arbeitgebers, die etwas versteckt in der Ecke hängen. King macht kein Aufheben davon. Der etwa 50-jährige Investmentberater hat schon zu viele Träume platzen sehen.


„Sicher, die Wirtschaftsdaten sind gut“, sagt King. „Die Gewinne der Unternehmen steigen. Ein guter Zeitpunkt, um Aktien zu kaufen.“ Aber seine Stimme klingt gedämpft, als wolle sie eigentlich warnen. Im Hintergrund läuft der Fernseher: „Der Dow Jones ist jetzt nur noch zwei Tage von der 10 000er-Marke entfernt“, meldet eine Reporterin live von der Wall Street. King rät dennoch zur Vorsicht: Viele seiner Kunden sind gebrannte Kinder des Börsenbooms Ende der 90er-Jahre.

Aber längst nicht alle beachten die mahnenden Worte: „Ich habe keine Ahnung von Aktien, aber ich möchte unbedingt Ebay kaufen. Bitte helft mir“, fleht Kelly McAndrew in ihrer E-Mail. Kelly sitzt als Angehörige des US-Militärs irgendwo in der Türkei und holt sich ihre Tipps für die Altersvorsorge im Internet-Chatroom des Onlinedienstes MSN.Com.

Die Aktien des Onlineauktionshauses Ebay sind in diesem Jahr um fast 70 Prozent gestiegen und nur noch wenige Dollar von ihrem Höchststand im März 2000 entfernt. Ebay ist 84-mal so teuer wie der Jahresgewinn des Unternehmens. Der historische Durchschnitt für die Bewertung der an der Technologiebörse Nasdaq gehandelten Firmen liegt dagegen bei etwa 50. Mit anderen Worten: Entweder ist Ebay die Speerspitze einer neuen Internetrevolution, oder die Aktien sind extrem überbewertet.

Charles Biderman hat sein Urteil gefällt. „Die Spekulationsblase ist zurückgekehrt“, sagt der Chef der kalifornischen Researchfirma Trimtabs.com. Die Zeichen für ein Comeback der Gier seien überall sichtbar. Das Ende scheint Biderman bereits vorgezeichnet: der nächste Crash.

Es ist ein bisschen wie Ende der 90er-Jahre: Die Anleger kaufen vor allem Technologie-Aktien. Der Nasdaq-Index stieg seit Jahresbeginn um fast 50 Prozent – etwa dreimal so stark wie der Industriewerte- Index Dow Jones. Die Aktienkäufe auf Kredit wachsen mit zweistelligen Raten. Online-Broker melden, dass der private Handel per Mausklick dramatisch zunimmt. Exakt diese Symptome haben vor vier Jahren eine riesige Spekulationsblase begleitet. Das Ergebnis ist bekannt: Die Blase ist geplatzt, hat Billionen Dollar Gewinne in Verluste verwandelt und Millionen Investoren um ihre Ersparnisse gebracht.

Auch jetzt gibt es bereits die ersten Warnsignale: Firmenmanager verkaufen massiv Aktien ihrer eigenen Unternehmen. „Die Manager fürchten, dass sie die hoch gesteckten Erwartungen der Investoren auf Dauer nicht erfüllen können“, sagt Marktstratege Dhaval Joshi von der französischen Bank Société Générale. Die Anleger schreckt das offenbar nicht. Der Stimmungsindex, den Joshi auf der Basis von Zeitungsberichten ermittelt, steht auf dem höchsten Stand seit 1989.

„Blasen tendieren dazu, sich nach einiger Zeit wieder aufzupusten“, erklärt Barry Ritholtz den erneuten Run an die Börse. Der Marktstratege des New Yorker Investmenthauses Maxim Group beruft sich auf den Nobelpreisträger Vernon Smith. „Professor Bubble“, wie der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler der George Mason University in Virginia genannt wird, hat das kurze Gedächtnis der Investoren in einem Experiment nachgewiesen: Nach ein paar Jahren infiziert sie wieder jener Virus, den der amerikanische Notenbank-Chef Alan Greenspan als „ansteckende Gier“ bezeichnet hat.

„Die Furcht der Anleger, ihr Hemd zu verlieren, wird normalerweise nur von der Angst übertroffen, den Anschluss zu verpassen“, sagt Kevin Landis, Fondsmanager bei Firsthand Capital in San Jose. Und angesichts der überaus guten Nachrichten aus der US-Wirtschaft sind offenbar immer mehr Investoren bereit, ihr Hemd zu riskieren.

Schließlich fährt die Wirtschaft gerade mit Vollgas aus der Rezession. Im dritten Quartal 2003 ist das Bruttoinlandsprodukt deutlich gestiegen, und die im Börsenindex S&P 500 zusammengefassten Unternehmen verdienten über 20 Prozent mehr als zwölf Monate zuvor. Regierung und Notenbank helfen mit kräftigen Steuersenkungen und historisch niedrigen Zinsen.

Viele Investoren können da nicht mehr widerstehen, wollen beim Aufschwung dabei sein. Nachdem sie ihr Kapital lange Zeit in renditeschwachen Geldmarktfonds geparkt haben, investieren sie jetzt wieder verstärkt in Aktien. In den fünf Monaten bis Ende August flossen netto mehr als 90 Milliarden Dollar in Aktienfonds – so viel wie seit drei Jahren nicht mehr. Der Anteil von Aktien am Finanzvermögen der US-Haushalte liegt mit 33 Prozent wieder deutlich über dem langfristigen Durchschnitt von 26 Prozent.

Zu jenen, die sich von der neuen Börseneuphorie haben anstecken lassen, gehört Raymond Whitwer aus San Diego. Der 82-jährige Rentner hat seit einem Jahr ein Handelskonto beim Online-Broker Ameritrade. Seitdem spekuliert er täglich an der Börse und macht Geschäfte wie dieses: 2 000 Anteile des Technologieunternehmens Research in Motion für 38 Dollar das Stück gekauft und wenige Stunden später für 50 Cent mehr wieder verkauft. „Ich halte keine Aktien“, erzählte der Pensionär dem Wall Street Journal. „Wenn ich einen Dollar verdienen kann, dann verkaufe ich.“ Whitwer ist nicht der Einzige, den die Sucht gepackt hat. Alle großen Online-Broker verzeichnen einen starken Zuwachs von neuen Konten und Handelsaktivitäten.

Für Skeptiker Biderman ist das nur ein weiterer Beleg dafür, „dass die Anleger nichts dazugelernt haben.“ Zumal viele Investoren auf Pump kaufen – eine gefährliche Mode, die bereits vor den großen Börsencrashs 1929 und 2000 aufkam. Das Volumen der Wertpapierkredite von Maklerhäusern an der New Yorker Börse stieg im September auf 156 Milliarden Dollar. An der Nasdaq erreichten sie im Juli fast 26 Milliarden Dollar – mehr als auf dem Höhepunkt des Spekulationsfiebers im März 2000.

Ein wichtiger Unterschied zum Boom der 90er ist die Flaute auf dem Markt für Neuemissionen.Das könnte sich jedoch bald ändern. Die hoch gehandelte Internetfirma Google ließ kürzlich die Absicht erkennen, an die Börse zu gehen.

Im kleinen Glasbüro von Matthew King zeigt sich das doppelte Gesicht der New Yorker Finanzmeile. Der Fernseher hinter dem Rücken des Citi-Bankers hat den Schauplatz gewechselt – vom Börsenparkett in den Gerichtssaal. Verhandelt wird gegen Dennis Kozlowski. Der ehemalige Chef des Mischkonzerns Tyco soll die Aktionäre während des letzten Booms regelrecht ausgeplündert haben. King wirft einen kurzen Blick auf den Bildschirm, zieht seine blaue Krawatte noch etwas enger und wendet sich zurück zum Schreibtisch. Dort zieht er ein Anlageprospekt aus einem dicken Papierstapel. „Hier, mit diesem Fonds können Sie ihr Risiko zwischen Aktien und Anleihen streuen“, sagt er. Die Freude über seinen ausgewogenen Rat bringt ein leichtes Lächeln in sein sonst so ernstes Gesicht.

Auf Anlageberater wie King gründet Professor Jeremy Siegel von der Wharton Business School in Pennsylvania seine Zuversicht, dass sich die Geschichte nicht wiederholt. „Ich glaube nicht an eine neue Blase“, sagt der Wissenschaftler, der sich seit Jahren mit dem Verhalten von Investoren beschäftigt. „Die Anleger haben ihre Lektion gelernt.“

Unterstützung bekommt Siegel von „Professor Bubble“ persönlich. Nobelpreisträger Smith glaubt noch nicht an eine neue Blase; insbesondere, da die Wirtschaft in „guter Verfassung“ sei. „Eine neue Gefahr kommt erst mit einer neuen Generation von Investoren“, sagt der Ökonom. Und wenn es doch bald wieder knallt? „Jede Blase wird von großen Innovationen getrieben und schafft dadurch dauerhafte Werte für die Wirtschaft“, tröstet Smith.

Mitarbeit: Tobias Mörschen

HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 03. November 2003, 11:40 Uhr

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Cp6xG0bKbmZa3yJeZ…

November 03, 2003 09:01

Glamis Gold Reports Third Quarter 2003 Results

RENO, Nev., Nov 3, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Glamis Gold Ltd. (NYSE:GLG) (TSX:GLG) today reported net income of $3.5 million or $0.02 per share for the third quarter of 2003 compared to net income of $2.4 million or $0.02 per share for the third quarter of 2002.

Third Quarter Highlights:

-- Produced 51,707 ounces of gold at a total cash cost …

Kevin McArthur, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company said: "Glamis continues to make excellent progress at its development projects in Nevada, Mexico and Guatemala. At Marigold, we are successfully phasing in the expansion program and extending the new TZN discovery. Recent drilling has also encountered additional mineralization around current operations. As a direct result of these discoveries, consideration of a further expansion will commence once a scoping study is completed by year end. At El Sauzal, we are on schedule and within our budget. Excavation of the mill site and other plant facilities is well underway and concrete has already been poured for the office buildings and maintenance shop. We remain on schedule to reach commercial production for the first quarter of 2005, but expect gold production to commence in the fourth quarter of 2004. Glamis has also completed a number of optimization studies at its Marlin gold project in Guatemala that will revise the original feasibility study completed in May of this year. These collectively have the potential to significantly enhance the project and will be formally submitted to the Board of Directors later this week for approval to proceed with development.

"Turning to existing operations, we achieved record quarterly gold production of 25,270 ounces at Marigold mine, but leach pad issues at San Martin persisted throughout most of the third quarter, much longer than we had expected. It now appears that we have returned to projected production levels and should see substantial improvement in the fourth quarter."

weiter....

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Cp6xG0bKbmZa3yJeZ…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Cp6xG0bKbmZa3yJeZ…

November 03, 2003 09:07

Kinross Gold/Teryl Resources: Project Assessment to Commence at Fort Knox-Gil Gold Project

Assessment Work Added to Exploration Budget in Preparation for Development of Gold Deposits

FAIRBANKS, Alaska, Nov 3, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Teryl Resources Corp. (TSX Venture Exchange:TRC) announces that the Company and Kinross Gold Corp. have increased the exploration program at the Fort Knox-Gil joint venture project in Alaska. Added to the original program of core and reverse circulation drilling, budgeted at US$750,000, is project assessment studies, essential for the development of the Gil gold deposits.

Exploration at the Gil Project has defined two substantial gold zones known as the Main and North deposits. The objective of the enhanced phase 2 program is to collect environmental baseline data, characterize the hydrology in the area of the Main Gil deposit, as well as conduct engineering studies for a haul road and other project-related construction activities.

It is expected that successful and timely completion of these activities would allow for the assessment of the economic viability of the Gil Project.

The Fort Knox-Gil Gold Project is located in the Fairbanks Mining District, Alaska, approximately five miles east of Kinross` Fort Knox deposit, Alaska`s largest producing open-pit gold mine.

weiter...

http://www.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=Cp6xG0bKbmZa3yJeZ…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

HANDELSBLATT, Montag, 03. November 2003, 09:32 Uhr


Nachfrage aus China beflügelt die Aktienkurse


Goldrausch bei Rohstoffwerten


Von Ingo Narat, Handelsblatt


An den Rohstoffmärkten geht die Post ab. Die rasant steigend…

FRANKFURT/M. Gewinner sind die Aktien von Minengesellschaften, die überproportional von den Preisanstiegen der Rohstoffe profitieren. Das Interesse konzentriert sich auf Asien, dort besonders auf China, Südamerika, Russland und Afrika.

Es geht um Industriemetalle wie Kupfer und Nickel oder Blei, um Gold und Silber, aber auch um Energieträger und Agrarprodukte. Viele Rohstoffpreise erreichten gerade mehrjährige Höchststände, für Platin wird so viel gezahlt wie seit fast einem Vierteljahrhundert nicht mehr. Und bisher lohnten Aktienengagements: Der weltweite Index für Minen- und Metallaktien gewann seit dem Tief im Herbst 2001 75 %.

Noch steckt der Aufschwung nach Meinung einiger Experten in …

„Die Rohstoffnachfrage aus China ist heute fünfmal so hoch wie vor zehn Jahren – einfach phantastisch“, sagt Evy Hambro, Manager von Rohstoffaktienfonds bei Merrill Lynch Investment Managers in London. Er setzt u.a. auf Kupfer, Nickel und Zink. „Die qualitativ hochwertigsten Minen und Explorationsprojekte findet man in den Schwellenländern“, sagt Hambro. Er nennt Beispiele wie den chilenischen Kupferwert Amerigo Resources und Brasiliens Goldproduzenten Jaguar Mining. Auch wenn in Hambros World Mining Fund Standardwerte wie die in London notierten und breit aufgestellten Konzerne Rio Tinto und BHP Billiton am stärksten gewichtet sind: Die Musik spielt anderswo, zumindest gemessen an den Kursbewegungen. An der kanadischen Risikokapitalbörse beispielsweise haben sich die Kurse einiger kleiner Minen und Explorationsfirmen in wenigen Monaten vervielfacht.

Darüber hinaus zieht jetzt ein Megaprojekt das Interesse auf sich. Es geht um die Erschließung der Ressourcenvorkommen in der Mongolei. Pionierarbeit leistet hier die in Toronto notierte Ivanhoe Mines, deren Kurs sich in den letzten Monaten vervierfachte. Faber ist seit längerem fasziniert von dem Kupfer- und Gold-Explorationsprojekt von Ivanhoe im mongolischen Teil der Wüste Gobi. Jack Jones, Rohstoffexperte bei CIBC World Markets, sagte nach einer Informationsreise in die Mongolei: „Dort gibt es geradezu unglaubliche Explorationsmöglichkeiten – das Kursziel von Ivanhoe haben wir auf 15 Dollar angehoben“. Wie sehr die Mongolei die Phantasien beflügelt, zeigt die jüngste Aktion von Barrick Gold, einem der weltgrößten Goldförderer. Barrick erwarb gerade einen Anteil an einer kleinen kanadischen und in der Mongolei aktiven Firma.

Barrick hat – wie andere große Gesellschaften – auch ein Auge auf das rohstoffreiche Russland geworfen. Das Unternehmen kaufte gerade die russische Goldmine Highland Gold. „In dem Land gibt es exzellente Investmentchancen“, sagt auch Hambro. Politische Risiken, wie gerade am Fall Yukos, nimmt er gelassen und denkt langfristig: „Deswegen verschwindet das Gold ja nicht aus dem Boden.“

[Spieler0815]

Marc Faber aktuell:
03-Nov-03

A more cautious approach toward Asia and commodity prices
Marc Faber

"Asia is firing on all cylinders. Consumer spending has more than recovered from Sars. In an increasing number of countries investment too is picking up. China is roaring ahead as a source of demand for both consumer and investment goods and, after a soft summer, export growth has picked up again. Add in a recovery in the United States, our bullish forecast for Japan and some signs of life in the EU and you have an economic environment that is better than has been seen for years and maybe the best since before the Asian crisis", so says CLSA in its fourth quarter Asian Economic Research bulletin, dated September 11, 2003. I agree! Asia is experiencing economic boom conditions although no everywhere and not for every sector of the economy. Moreover, what concerns me regarding the view of CLSA is the statement that the economic environment in Asia "maybe the best since before the Asian crisis". Let us hope that these "boom conditions" will not end the same way they unraveled in 1997!

Over the years, I have been immensely impressed by China`s economic development, the relatively smooth and peaceful progress of its society post communism and the rise of standards of living in that country. More recently, I have also been impressed by the changes that have taken place in India over the last two years and which are likely to ensure future trend-line GDP growth in the 5-6% range or even higher. But, as the economist Clement Juglar wrote in the 19th century, "paradoxically as it may seem, the riches of nations can be measured by the violence of the crises they experience" and, therefore, I am now more cautious about China`s and Asia`s economic prospects as well as about the potential for commodities to rise much more in the near term. There are several reasons for this more cautious view.

Whereas CLSA actually predicts economic growth in China to accelerate in 2004, I take a more conservative approach and believe that its growth will slow down considerably or even be temporary interrupted by a mini crisis. In addition, since China`s rapid economic expansion had a very beneficial impact on Asia by sucking in imports from the region, I have to assume that any slowdown in its growth rate would also have a negative impact on the rest of Asia as well as on commodity prices.

Let me explain. Unlike in the US, growth in China is driven by net capital formation and exports. Like in the US, growth in China is also driven by strong consumption growth and consumer credit growth, albeit unlike in the US in unsaturated markets. In recent years, China`s fixed investment growth has been accelerating and accounts now, according to some experts, for 42% of GDP. Now, let us assume that this figure is grossly overstated and that capital formation only accounts for say 20% or 25% of GDP. The problem does, however, not relate to the size of current capital spending in China, but to the fact that is has expanded rapidly over the last few years and that large over-capacities have come about in almost every sector of its economy (according to Chinese statistics fixed investment growth is up 30.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2003). In other words, it would appear that China`s current economic boom has much to do with significant over-investments, which were so common in the American economy of the 19th century and repeatedly led to vicious downturns. Now I am the first one to admit that the Chinese learnt very quickly from the US government how to doctor economic statistics and, that therefore, the year-on-year growth in fixed investments could be much lower than Chinese statistics would have us believe. However, if we consider that housing and the construction of commercial structures has been booming and that FDIs were strong, it is possible that fixed capital formation jumped massively in 2003. The fact, however, is that overcapacities now exist and that inventories have risen strongly. In this respect it is interesting to note that Motorola just sold its loss making one billion US dollar waver fabrication plant in Tianjin to China`s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) for a 10% stake in that chipmaker (SMIC is only three year old and is China`s first made-to-order chipmaker!). I may add that Motorola`s MOS-17 wafer-fabrication plant had been running at less than 10% of its capacity, as demand for locally made chips failed to meet Motorola`s "great" expectations. That large over-capacities exist is also evident from China`s stable or declining consumer good prices given the country`s strong growth rates. In the case of China we can really talk about a deflationary boom! But excess capacities aside, which may lead in 2004 to slower fixed capital investment growth rates, or even a slight decline, I have other concerns regarding the Asian region as well as commodity prices. Recently Chinese import growth of 40% year-on-year (compared to 30% export growth) would suggest that some inventory building is taking place. Indeed inventories have been soaring, which is not surprising considering that commodity prices have been rising strongly. Now visualize the following situation. Since industrial production in the industrialized countries is flat to down, there is no doubt that it was the incremental demand coming from China that pushed up commodity prices since 2001. In turn, rising prices did not go unnoticed to China`s authorities and corporate sector, which immediately reacted to rising prices by building up their inventories and in the process created higher demand than would have been the case without the inventory build-up! In fact, for China to build up its inventories is more than logical. By doing so, it diversifies it foreign assets out of US dollars, warehousing costs are not a factor, and it reduces the politically sensitive trade surplus. But, the flipside of this is that if industrial production and fixed capital investments slow down the rate of increase in the demand for commodities will suddenly diminish or at worse, Chinese demand could even temporary decline. I wish to stress that in order to get a meaningful slowdown in the aggregate Chinese demand there is no need for capital spending to decline. A slower growth rate or flat fixed capital formation will do the trick via the multiplier, and acceleration principle. I am, therefore, leaning towards the view of the research tem at ABN-AMRO who believes that, "the market is too complacent over China`s over-investment problems and the country`s need to tighten". According to ABN-AMRO, "some argue that China is not overheated on the ground of low CPI inflation rate. They miss the point that China`s current overheating is caused by excessive investment. The resulting excess capacity will be deflationary, rather than inflationary. The market hopes for fine-tuning. This is wishful thinking. The severity of the problem is already well beyond what fine-tuning can solve, and also the system and tools that allow the government to fine-tune the economy simply do not exist. History tells us that China has never achieved fine-tuning…There are two options for the Chinese government: 1) try to engineer a slowdown now and hopefully it will be a soft landing (not fine-tuning), or allow the investment ratio to continue to rise until it blows up."

A slowdown in the growth of net capital formation aside there are other reasons to take a more cautious approach towards China. If, US consumption slows down as the stimulus of the tax cuts and the housing refinancing boom disappear, then export growth not only of China but also of the entire Asian region will cool down. Moreover, Chinese domestic consumption is already showing signs of slowing down somewhat, as at least some markets are becoming increasingly saturated.

Finally, what disturbs me the most is that every magazine or paper I open has some favorable comments about China`s economic development and China`s positive impact on commodity prices, and that there has been widespread speculation in just about any stock that has something to do with China. Just consider the three Nasdaq listed internet companies, Net Ease, Sohu and Sina which are all up over 2000% from their lows a year ago and combine all that speculators can dream of - high tech, telecommunication and China.

Regarding commodities, I continue to believe that we are at the beginning of a multi year bull market. In other words, after the more than 20 years old bear market, commodity prices have, in my opinion made secular lows and will rise considerably more in the years to come. However, the commodity theme has become rather popular and a meaningful setback would not come as a surprise to me. Prices for industrial commodities such as Steel, Alumina, and Nickel have exploded on the upside, while cotton has doubled over the last twelve months and is now at a five-year high. And while it is possible that the current first leg within a long-term bull market in commodities may have some further upside potential, investors should fully realize that "China and commodities" have become a very well known and popular theme among the investment community!

I concede that I could be wrong about the coming slowdown in Chinese growth. In this case commodity prices will rise further in the next six to twelve months. If, however, commodity prices continue to roar ahead, then the likelihood of accelerating inflation rates around the world is very high unless companies are prepared to accept lower margins as a result of rising material costs. And if inflation should accelerate, higher interest rates will begin to weight on equity markets and contain the current bull market.

In the meantime the investment case for Asia remains intact, although stock markets may be near term very overbought. Thailand is up by 85% over the last 12 months and Indonesia by 113%, albeit from an extremely depressed level. The worst performing markets over the last twelve months are the Philippines - up 22.1%, Singapore - up 23.3% and Malaysia - up 24.6%, all markets we still like on a relative basis. In the case of Indonesia and Thailand, I would wait, as in the case for commodities, for a correction to unfold before making major new commitments. In fact, I believe that emerging markets -following their superb performance over the last twelve months - are due for a significant correction, as the US stock market looks increasingly vulnerable.

The problem I have is that I don`t find many bargains today anywhere, except maybe among precious metals, which are partly commodities and partly the only really "hard currencies", whose supply cannot be increased meaningfully. Platinum prices are at a 23-year high. Thus, it is entirely possible that also gold and silver will fly to the upside in the next two years.

[ThaiGuru]

Zur Zeit stehen die Gold, und Silber Preise ja wieder stark unter Druck des Cabals.

Silber wurde vorübergehend wieder unter 5.- Dollar gedrückt!

Beim Gold wird gerade versucht die 380.- Dollar pro Unze nach unten zu durchbrechen.

Benützt diese Chance, und kauft jetzt physisches Gold, und/oder Silber!

Vielleicht für sehr lange Zeit das letzte mal, dass Gold unter 390.- Dollar zu haben ist.

Silber unter 5.- Dollar die Unze, ist ein Preis der jenseits von jeder einigermaßen vernünftigen Bewertungsgrundlage geradezu zum Kaufen einlädt!

[juxifuxi]

# 7336

hat das viele kopieren und die Sprüche doch nichts geholfen ?
Nun muß mal wieder die "Verschwörung" hinhalten.
JPM doch nicht pleite ?

[ThaiGuru]

@Juxifuzzi

Weisst Du was, Du bist der grösste ....

Mach weiter so, wir brauchen Dich!

[hpoth]

# Thai,
nun Rückschläge kommen eben immer wieder vor, es wäre ja auch ein kleines Wunder gewesen wenn der erste Anlauf auf 400 gelungen wäre.Es hätten eben zwei Dinge pasieren müssen, 1. Panik der Shorties 2. die Dollar- Abwertung.Nun kommt es eben wieder anders, trotzdem glaube ich nicht daran das der Wendpunkt fürs Gold gekommen ist, es ist eben nur wieder eine Mahßnahme getroffen worden einige Zocker abzuschütteln.gruß hpoth

[juxifuxi]

Thai G. Danke !!

Das war aber wirklich nicht nötig,
wenn auch zutreffend !

Du hast Dich erstmals übertroffen !!

Auf jeden Fall besser, als Deine Aussagen zu Gold und der Verschwörung der letzen Jahre.

Viel Glück !

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,272388,00.html

US-BÖRSENAUFSICHT

Unsauberer Handel mit 2,2 Milliarden Aktien

Die US-Wertpapieraufsicht SEC hat die New Yorker Börse in einem Bericht scharf kritisiert. Wegen fehlender Kontrollen der Parketthändler sei Anlegern in den vergangenen drei Jahren ein Millionenschaden entstanden.



New York - Der 40-seitige SEC-Bericht, der dem "Wall Street Journal" zugespielt wurde, trifft mitten ins Herz der New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), der größten Börse der Welt. Der Parketthandel, also die Abwicklung von Aktienkäufen und -verkäufen per Zuruf, sei von Missbrauch durchzogen, so das Fazit der Börsenaufseher. Die Vorwürfe richten sich vor allem gegen die fünf größten Firmen, die Parketthändler - auch Spezialisten genannt - unter Vertrag haben. Bei rund 2,2 Milliarden Aktien haben die Handelsfirmen ihre Kunden demnach zu schlechteren Preisen bedient als sich selbst, was zu einem Gesamtschaden von 155 Millionen Dollar führte.

Das Volumen der beanstandeten Verkäufe ist nicht gravierend, es umfasst weniger als ein Prozent der in den drei Jahren gehandelten Aktien. Der Bericht ist dennoch ein schwerer Schlag gegen die 211 Jahr alte Börse, die ihr System von Selbstkontrolle und Vertrauen bisher mit großem Stolz präsentierte. Nach Ansicht der SEC sind die Mitarbeiter der NYSE für ihre Kontrollaufgaben entweder schlecht ausgerüstet oder sie haben Angst vor zu viel Arbeit. Die Zeitung zitiert aus dem Bericht, die SEC sei "beunruhigt darüber, dass die Spezialisten und ihre Firmen die disziplinarischen Maßnahmen der NYSE als kleinere Betriebskosten gesehen haben, und unsachgemäßes Verhalten deshalb nicht verhindert oder eingeschränkt wurde."

Die SEC-Bericht könnte nach Angaben des "Wall Street Journal…

03. November 2003

[Magor]

wenn Juxifux auch ungern ein gutes Haar an Dir läßt Thai, ich schon!
Sogar ein dickes Lob!
Das warten hat sich ausgezahlt, die Nerven behalten auch! Beide Limite erfüllt, über und unter Soll sogar : - )

Konnte ja nicht ahnen, daß meine Order solch einen Wind an der Börse auslösen : - ((
Nundenn, jetzt bin ich wieder positioniert, kann wieder stramm gen Norden gehen!

Gruß
Magor

[juxifuxi]

# Magor

auch ich habe Thai G. doch über den grünen Klee gelobt !!.

Hätte ich gewußt, dass Deine Order solche gewaltigen Bewegungen auslösen............................

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Der nexte grosse Skandal ist heute in den USA publik geworden. General Staatsanwalt Elliot Spitzer hat zur Zeit wieder mal alle Hände voll zu tun.

33 Brokerhäuser und 88 Top Funds sollen sich auf kosten der Anleger gütlich getan haben. Es soll Insidern zufolge um Schäden von Milliarden von US Dollar gehen.

Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Financial Management said:

"The Illinois Republican described the industry as "a $7 tri…

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749…

Die ersten Köpfe rollen bereits!

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1519&ncid=74…

Die US Börsen müssten eigentlich nach solchen Meldungen in den Keller rauschen. Das tun sie aber nicht, im Gegenteil, Betrug und Beschiss in Amerikas scheint bereits "eingepreist" zu sein, sodass die Börsen weiter steigen können, der Dollar wird auch noch stärker, und Gold und Silber fällt.

Dass General Motors heute bekannt gab, dass ihre Autoverkäufe im Oktober um gewaltige 7% eingebrochen sind, nachdem doch am letzten Freitag doch noch vom grössten Anstieg der US GDP die Rede war, wird wohl auch ein Grund sein für den Anstieg der Börsen in den USA von heute?

Welch kranke Wirtschaftswelt


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[juxifuxi]

Meinen Dank an alle Gurus,

die in dieser kranken Wirtschaftwelt
seit so langer Zeit uneigennützig (?)

Wunschprognosen für uns alle abgeben.

Mögen diese doch auch einmal in Erfüllung gehen !!

[ThaiGuru]

Die offizielle Cabal Begründung warum Gold und Silber heute unerwartet nachgegeben haben, will ich Euch nicht vorenthalten



http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyI…



COMEX gold drops 2 percent on hope for US recovery

Mon November 3, 2003 02:49 PM ET

(Page 1 of 2)

NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - COMEX gold tumbled 2 percent Monday, as good news on the U.S. economy kept rolling in, buoying the dollar and making $400-an-ounce gold seem like less of a sure thing.

Stock markets rallied, while safe havens like U.S. Treasury bonds fell with gold after the Institute of Supply Management`s October manufacturing conditions index came out better than expected at 57, compared with September`s 53.7. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

Meanwhile, September U.S. construction spending surged 1.3 percent to a record level.

"The real determinant of all this is going to be the U.S. do…

The heaviest profit-taking came late morning after London closed for the day. December gold (0#GC:: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped below the $380 an ounce psychological level, where pre-placed sell orders hastened the fall.

The benchmark contract closed down $7.50 at $377.10 an ounce, trading from the day`s high $385.70 to $376.50, its cheapest since Oct. 21.

Spot gold (XAU=: Quote, Profile, Research) fell to $376.30/7.05 from $384.05/75 at Friday`s close. London`s afternoon fix was $383.25.

The gold market has been turbulent since the Oct. 30 report that U.S. third quarter gross domestic product expanded at a 7.2 percent annual rate, its fastest clip in two decades.

Lingering skepticism about recovery and a weak dollar encouraged funds to try to muscle gold into the mid-$390s in recent trading in an attempt to break September`s seven-year high at $394.80.

But Monday`s data seemed to ice the economy cake.

The Dow Jones industrial stock average was up over 50 points Monday afternoon. The dollar recovered to its highest price in five weeks against the euro and in more than a month versus the yen, raising gold`s purchase price overseas.

Late Friday, the CFTC reported that the net long position in gold futures held by speculators rose to 90,613 contracts as of Tuesday from 80,684 the prior week. That was quite overbought by historical standards but well below the extreme position of nearly 123,000 contracts in September. Continued ... 1| 2 Next
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=VARASG32…

[ThaiGuru]

November 3 - Gold $376.40 down $7.70- Silver $4.89 down 16 cents

"We Can’t Lose, We Have Harry Potter On Our Side"

"I believe in the federalist system, which means when you ha… --Rep. Ron Paul

The New Orleans Investment Conference was a major breakthrough for GATA. As James Turk said, “There is no question that GATA is now `dead center` as far as the gold industry is concerned." What James means is people might disagree with us, but we are no longer regarded as fringe.

A good example of that was the caliber of the attendees at the GATA reception on Saturday evening. There were 8 money managers who handle $50 million to $2billion, in addition to many CEOs, etc.

For those Café members and GATA supporters who attended, it was great seeing you!

What a fun few days! Thursday evening we had our annual GATA dinner for our team. Reg Howe, Bob Landis, James Turk, Mike Bolser, Chris Powell were there along with a bevy of guests, including Deon van der Mescht, Ilja Graulich and Mark Wellesley-Wood of Durban Deep, Nick Ferris of J-Pacific Gold, Jeff Dahl of Samex Mining, famed Dallas attorney Ethan Stroud and wife Mimi, John Embry and wife Nancy, among others.

Oh yes, there were two more. One of GATA’s main cogs is Andrew Hepburn. The testimony to the quality of his efforts and work is the fact his recap of a portion of GATA’s efforts has been up at The Matisse Table for a year now. I mentioned his name twice in my presentation at the conference.

Well, you all know how the internet is. You can’t really know who you are communicating with until you see them. My picture of Andrew was a retiring lawyer in his late 50’s, like many others in the GATA high command. Did we all have a surprise coming! Andrew asked if he could bring his father to the affair and we said sure. My thinking was his Dad had to be in his eighties.

To say that all of our jaws fell open when we met Andrew is an understatement. He looks like Harry Potter. He is a short 20-year old and could pass for 16. Turns out Andrew is a handsome young kid who attends Queens College in Toronto. His Dad could pass as my younger brother. All of us GATA folk just shook our heads in disbelief and admiration. Andrew is beyond extraordinary. That’s what I think inspired Mike Bolser to come up with THE best line at the conference, “We can’t lose, we have Harry Potter on our side.”

We certainly did lose today though. Same drill from the corrupt Gold Cartel. Cap, cap, cap and then pressure the attack when the outside markets are favorable. It was a surging dollar and a strong stock market, bolstered by a strong ISM number, that contributed to doing gold in.

The dollar was close to 94 during the day.

The Gold Cartel has won their battle to defend $390 so far. Technically gold has topped out. That’s the bad news. The good news is technicals don’t mean all that much in a rigged market. Sure, we may have to go through some pain here as tech specs dump their long positions, but the damage should not be too severe, nor last very long.

The funds were big sellers and the bad guys who sold heavily last week, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, etc., were BIG buyers above the lows of the day. Morgan Stanley sold late for a fund. Gold will be vulnerable to more spec selling, but if the crooks continue to buy, it shouldn’t be too long before gold takes off again. The physical market is just too strong. In addition, if The Gold Cartel has to cover, they need to do so when the dollar and stock market are firm. Both could tank at any time and could send the gold price much higher.

Silver continues to make no sense. It’s 30 cents off of Friday’s highs.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

What are TIPS saying?

Monday, November 03, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.13, PM $$7.44, with world gold at $383.75 and $383.85. Ample for legal imports. This is true of all reporting points carried by Reuters.

This morning Reuters carries a story from India quoting dealers there predicting that imports will double or triple this week (depending on the city)because of the slightly lower world prices: there were reports of vigorous Indian activity on the sell-off attempt late on Friday in NY.

The Indian Central Bank raised its prediction for the countr…

On the other hand, the onset of Ramadan caused Turkey’s gold market to be closed 1 ½ days last week. Activity shriveled and imports collapsed to a negligible 125 kgs. Presuming this to be true across the Muslim world, it makes last week’s gold price relative steadiness the more remarkable.

Japan was closed this morning. The Shanghai Gold Exchange data, for what it is worth, show Chinese gold prices have moved to a modest premium over the world market for the first time since October 20.

In a now familiar pattern, gold’s temerity in challenging the $389 level in NY on Friday unleashed aggressive selling, which however failed to cause a rout because of the Indian response previously mentioned. Another sell off attempt has been launched today against the more plausible background of US financial asset euphoria following the ISM data. The only impediment to predicting another halting of this effort above $380 is the fact that Refco Research put out a buy on Friday afternoon, with a $378 intra day stop!

Refco’s reasons for their move are significant and deserve consideration:

“Gold’s brief bounce higher after the Chicago purchasing man…

This intuition fits well with concerns raised by Bianco Research today. Pointing to the ominous pattern traced out by the TIPS chart they say:

“Typically the breakeven inflation rate and crude oil move t…

Gold market analysis is the poorer this morning for the news that Rhona O’Connell has been dismissed by the World Gold Council and her commentaries terminated, as that peculiar organization moves further along the path of eliminating the supply of useful and plausibly objective market information.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Magor]

Kleinvieh macht auch Mist, und schlägt mit den Flügeln : - ))
Wer hatte etwas von kein Geld verdienen wollen hier jemals geschrieben Juxifuxi?
Uneigennützig ist das geklimpere hier nicht! Das wachsende Mißtrauen in die mit Papier und Luft handelnden Institutionen ist das Ziel und läßt die Werte, an welche wir hier glauben ins rechte Licht rücken, und dadurch irgendwann im Kurs auch steigen, wenn nach genügend Aufklärungsarbeit das bisher immer nur mit "leeren Versprechungen" erreichte Preisdumping als das gesehen wird, was es ist: Gelegenheit das Metall billiger aufzukaufen!

Vom gegenseitigen Beschiss, vom Feuer legen und rigorosem ausnutzen des Schwächeren lebt dieses amerikanische System Thai! Die verdienen alle noch nicht genug und vor allem nicht schnell genug!
Kapitalismus reicht nicht, es ist reiner "catch as catch can"! Und im unter den Tisch fegen von einmal versehentlich hochgebrodeltem, sind sie wahre Meister! Weil so viele ihre Finger in diesem Sud haben!

Gestern war übrigens der 100. Geburtstag vom Staate Panama, das die schweinerischen Machenschaften dieses Yuppie Volkes dort drüben, das nur seine eigene Vorteile kennt, schon damals deutlichst aufzeigte. Diese Art ist hoffähig geworden, es berichtet heute nicht mal einer mehr darüber, wie die Amis ganz Mittelamerika angesteckt hatten um an "Ihren" kanal zu kommen! Wie denn auch? Die Medien hierzulande gehören doch schon denen, und wessen Brot ich esse, dessen Lied ich singe ... mögen noch so falsche Töne dabei sein!

Grüße
Magor

[valueinvestor]

Den Staat Panama gibt es überhaupt nur wegen dieses Kanals. Er wurde von den USA "eingerichtet", weil man meinte, Kolumbien nicht so unter Kontrolle halten zu können, wie das bei dem kleinen Panama möglich war (und ist)

[ThaiGuru]

Die 380.- Dollar pro Unze Gold sind schon wieder erreicht!

[silvo]

Bei Silber auch schon wieder 5,--




und in USA geht`s endlich runter mit dem Nasdaq-Mist

[ThaiGuru]

Habe bereits gestern in #7344 über den neuen Anleger Betrugsskandal in den USA gepostet. Heute nochmals ein Bericht dazu in deutscher Sprache aus der Zeitung die Welt.

Da es anscheinend im Gold Board immer noch User zu geben scheint, die eine Manipulation der Gold und Silber Preise schlichtweg verneinen, vielleicht ein gutes Beispiel dafür, dass man den Verantwortlichen an den Börsen nicht uneingeschrenktes Vertrauen schenken sollte. Wie man lesen kann wurden die Anleger nach General Staatsanwalt Elliot Spitzer gewaltig "beschissen"!

Aber wenigstens beim Gold-, und Silberpreis geht ja alles mit rechten Dingen her und zu, wenn man Aussagen von "Imoen" glauben schenken kann.



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/11/04/192057.html

Spitzer: Fonds sollen Provisionen zurückzahlen

New Yorker Staatsanwalt sieht Treuhänderpflicht durch die Investmenthäuser auf Kosten der Investoren verletzt
von Bloomberg


Spitzer deckte Handelspraktiken auf, die der US-Senator Richard Shelby als einen "wachsenden Skandal" bezeichnete.

Bank of America, Bank One, Janus Capital Group und Strong Mutual Funds wird vorgeworfen, der Hedgefondsgesellschaft Canary Capital Partners Handelsgeschäfte auch noch nach Börsenschluss gestattet zu haben. Damit hätten sie ihre Treuhänderpflicht verletzt und Hedgefonds Zugang zu Preisen verschafft, die anderen Investoren nicht möglich waren." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">New York - Zu seinem nächsten Schlag gegen die Investmentb…

Und es wird noch mehr solcher Fälle geben. Spitzer erklärte letzte Woche, dass er Klagen gegen mindestens zehn weitere Personen oder Gesellschaften erheben wolle. "Man fragt sich, wie groß der Sumpf schon ist", konstatiert Henry T.C. Hu, Professor für Unternehmens- und Wertpapierrecht an der University of Texas.

Spitzer sagte weiter, dass die Fondsgesellschaften "die Beratungsgebühren zurückerstatten müssen, die sie in der Zeit erhalten haben, als sie die Fonds unsauber verwalteten und diese Praktiken des Markttiming und Handels nach Börsenschluss zuließen." Und die betroffenen Investmenthäuser nehmen den Generalsstaatsanwalt ernst.

Bank of America, die drittgrößte US-Bank gemessen an der Bil…

Außerdem versprach die Bank, Anleger von Investmentfonds zu entschädigen, denen durch die Handelspraktiken Schaden entstanden ist, der nicht schon von anderer Seite abgedeckt wird. "Wir haben versprochen, jeden Investor zu entschädigen, der wegen der Markttiminggeschäfte Geld verloren hat", versicherte Tom Kelly, Sprecher von Bank One.

Spitzer kritisierte außerdem, die Investmentfondsgebühren seien zu hoch im Vergleich dazu, was Pensionsfonds für die Vermögensverwaltung zahlen. Seiner Meinung nach sollten Fonds "nachweisen müssen, dass sie Beratungs- und Verwaltungsgebühren ausgehandelt haben, die im besten Interesse ihrer Investoren sind." Der Generalstaatsanwalt forderte zudem, dass der Vorsitzende einer Fondsgesellschaft unabhängig vom Vermögensverwaltungsbereich sein solle. Er bemängelte, die Gebühren seien zu hoch, weil die Aufsichtsräte der Fonds "nicht hart genug für die Investoren verhandeln. Warum nicht? Was erwarten Sie, wenn der Vorsitzende der Investmentfondsgesellschaft auch der Vorsitzende der Beratungsgesellschaft ist?"

Die US-Börsenaufsicht SEC plant inzwischen grundlegend neue Vorschriften für den Handel und die Führung von Fonds. Spitzer werde mit der SEC bei dem neuen Gesetzesentwurf zusammenarbeiten, teilte der Sprecher von Spitzer, Darren Dopp mit. Er berichtete, dass es mit den Gesellschaften noch keine Gespräche über außergerichtliche Vergleiche gegeben habe:

"Wir sind immer noch in der Phase, wo wir ermitteln und Ankl…

Die Kritik von Spitzer zeige, dass er die Fondsbranche nicht versteht, erklärt dagegen Geoffrey Bobroff, Leiter der Consultinggesellschaft Bobroff Consulting. "Ein Investor wählt einen Fondsmanager wegen seiner Fähigkeit aus, zweistellige Rendite zu erzielen", erläutert Bobroff: "Wenn er sagt, er würde nicht für weniger als ein Prozent arbeiten, was wollen Sie dann machen?"


Artikel erschienen am 4. Nov 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Noch eine bullische Meldung für den Gold Preis!

Der US Senat hat die von Bush für den "Aufbau Irak" geforder…

Dadurch dürfte das US Haushalts Defizit jetzt noch etwas stärker anwachsen als geplant.



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/11/05/192513.html

[voracon]

nur 87 milliarden

im übrigen ist das ganze amerikanische finanzsystem ein einziger beschiss, der aber keinen interessiert bis die kohle weg it

eine andere lustige praxis sind z.b illegale short sales, die als long sales getarnt sind

deine schönen aktien werden rausgepumpt um dich zum verkaufen zu zwingen und dann billig wieder eingedeckt und das noch illegal als long sales

eignet sich auch prima für goldminen das verfahren

man stelle sich nur vor der kurs explodiert und sie können nicht mehr eindecken, dann heist es die aktien sind aus dem computer geklaut worden von hackern

irgendwann ist es soweit, das man sich die dinger wieder in papierform ausliefern lassen muss

[ThaiGuru]

Diese 2 Meldungen aus der heutigen Ausgabe der Zeitung die Welt, passen eigentlich nahtlos zur letzten Meldung zur Bewilligung neuer Gelder im Betrag von 87.5 Billionen Dollar "Irak Aufbauhilfe"



http://www.welt.de/data/2003/11/04/192165.html?search=Hallib…

Halliburtons glänzende Geschäfte

Vor allem der amerikanische Ölindustrie-Gigant Halliburton hat im vergangenen Quartal glänzend verdient - vor allem wegen der guten Geschäfte im Irak. Der Gewinn der Tochterfirma Kellogg Brown and Root (KBR) vervierfachte sich, der Umsatz stieg im 80 Prozent. Ursache für den Anstieg seien "Regierungsaufträge im Nahen Osten", erklärte das Unternehmen. Die USA hatte KBR - ohne öffentliches Ausschreibungsverfahren - einen Milliardenauftrag zum Aufbau der Ölindustrie gegeben.

Allein im abgelaufenen Quartal habe dieser Auftrag für 900 Mio. Dollar an Umsatz und 34 Mio. Dollar an Gewinn gesorgt. Das Pikante: In den Jahren 1995 bis 2000 war der heutige Vize-Präsident D… Der heutige Chef des Unternehmens, Dave Lesar verteidigt das Engagement im Irak: "Unsere Truppen sind da und sie müssen unterstützt werden." Zugleich kam heraus, dass die US-Regierung Halliburton zuviel Geld für Benzin zahlt, dass die Firma aus Kuweit importiert. usa

Artikel erschienen am 4. Nov 2003

******

Irak- Aufbau verschlingt Milliarden

Für den Wiederaufbau im Irak geben die Vereinigten Staaten mehr als 20 Milliarden Dollar aus. Ein Gutteil der Aufträge ist nach einer Studie an Firmen gegangen, die der Präsidenten-Partei nahe stehen. Für die Demokraten ist das eine Steilvorlage im anstehenden Wahlkampf

von Martin Halusa

Allein an Kellogg Brown & Root (KBR) sind 2,3 Mrd. Dollar an…

Artikel erschienen am 4. Nov 2003

weiter....

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/11/04/192166.html?search=Hallib…

[ThaiGuru]

@voracon

Du hast noch was vergessen aufzuzählen, es gibt noch die sogenannten "naked short selling" Verkäufe. Dabei handelt es sich um Verkäufe von Aktien, z.Bsp. Gold Aktien die überhaupt gar nicht existieren.

Es soll sogar Fälle gegeben haben, wo die gesammte Menge an short verkauften Aktien, die gesammt Anzahl verfügbarer Aktien überschritten hatte.

Habe vor ca. 1 Jahr mal darüber hier im Thread berichtet.
Es existiert sogar eine Homepage die über diese illegalen, und skrupellosen Machenschaften gewisser Finanzinstitute berichten, und sich die Bekämpfung dieser ilegalen Machenschaften zum Ziel nehmen.



http://www.nakedshortselling.com/

Hier noch die Beschreibung der einzelnen Short Varianten!

http://www.icihome.com/short.htm

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Khampan]

#7355 @ voracon

eine andere lustige praxis sind z.b illegale short sales, die als long sales getarnt sind

versteh ich nicht wie das gehen soll. Hast du dazu einen Link oder nähere Erläuterungen? Wäre vielleicht was für einen eigenen Thräd.
Manchmal denke ich schon darüber nach, ob ich es verhindern kann, daß mein US Broker krumme Dinger dreht. Ohne zu einer Antwort zu kommen, abgesehen von physischer Auslieferung oder Broker wechseln natürlich.

Khampan

[ThaiGuru]

2:21p ET Tuesday, November 4, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Blanchard & Co., the New Orleans-based coin and
bullion dealer, announced today that the effort by
Barrick Gold and J.P. Morgan Chase to delay the
search for evidence in Blanchard`s gold price-fixing
lawsuit has failed and that the lawsuit now will
move into what is called the discovery phase.

GATA has long believed that if such a lawsuit could
only reach discovery and if the bullion banks and
the big shorts in gold, Barrick foremost among them,
could only be compelled to answer questions about
their activity in the gold market, the collusion
against gold would be exposed no matter how the
lawsuit was decided.

So Blanchard`s reaching the discovery phase is a
huge victory for the gold cause, for which everyone
in the gold community and everyone who supports
free markets should be profoundly grateful.

Blanchard`s announcement today is appended.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Blanchard & Co. Lawsuit Versus
Barrick Gold and Morgan Chase
to Move Into Discovery Phase

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031104/datu035_1.html

NEW ORLEANS, Nov. 4, 2003 -- Blanchard and Co. Inc.
received word today from the U.S. District Court for the
Eastern District of Louisiana that its case against Barrick
Gold Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. once again may
continue into the discovery phase of the lawsuit.

The court denied the defendants` motions for reconsideration of Judge Helen Berrigan`s Sept. 3rd ruling. Blanchard`s complaint that Barrick and Morgan have violated U.S. antitrust laws by unlawfully combining to manipulate the price of gold and to monopolize the market in gold was brought in December 2002.

In denying defendants` motions, the court stated that
"motions made pursuant to Rules 59(e) and 60(b) ... are
not intended to relitigate issues properly before the court
when it issued the challenged ruling, or raise new facts
or arguments that were not then before the court. ... This
is what defendants have attempted to do here. While the
defendants are understandably dissatisfied with a ruling
not in their favor, this is neither the time nor method to
raise these issues again."

Blanchard`s CEO, Donald W. Doyle Jr., said, "Barrick
and Morgan appear to have lost the chance to delay the
discovery phase of the case any further." Having already
served J.P. Morgan and Barrick with its requests for
production, Blanchard expects to move into the discovery
process immediately.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Neal R. Ryan
Blanchard and Company, Inc.
1-800-880-4653
nrryan@b...

http://www.savegold.com

----------------------------------------------------

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RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Free sites:

http://www.jsmineset.com

http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com

http://www.mineweb.com/

http://www.gold-eagle.com/

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.usagold.com/

http://www.GoldSeek.com/

http://www.capitalupdates.com/

http://www.goldenbar.com/

http://www.silver-investor.com

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/

http://www.sharelynx.net

http://www.mininglife.com/

http://www.financialsense.com

http://www.goldensextant.com

http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html

http://www.howestreet.com

http://www.depression2.tv

http://www.moneyfiles.org/

http://www.howestreet.com

http://www.minersmanual.com/minernews.html

http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.h…

http://www.goldcolony.com

http://www.mineralstox.com


Subscription site:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

http://www.hsletter.com


Eagle Ranch discussion site:

http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm

[ThaiGuru]

Hat doch kürzlich ein User im Gold Board vor 2 Tagen beim Abverkauf der Gold und Silber Preise durch das Gold Kartel geschrieben, es würde jetzt Wochen dauern, bis sich die Preise von diesem Schlag erholen würden.

Nach gerade mal 48 Stunden sind wir wieder auf dem Weg nach …

Gold Chart:



Siber Chart



Dollar Chart/

[ThaiGuru]

November 4 - Gold $379.20 up $2.80 - Silver $5.02 up 13 cents

Blanchard Suit Against JP Morgan Chase and Barrick Going to Discovery!!

"If you want to get somewhere you have to know where you wan… Norman Vincent Peale

Gold was all over the place during the Comex trading session. It opened very firm and made a beeline for $380. The Gold Cartel stopped it cold. Twice more gold shot up over $380, only to be repelled.

While gold only recaptured a portion of yesterday’s losses, the price action was very constructive. Rarely does bullion ever go straight back up after a licking like it took yesterday. The big news is significant physical buying is surfacing all over the place. See these two stories:

Sydney, Nov. 4 (Dow Jones) - Spot gold posted modest gains Tuesday in Asia, supported by thin physical demand and sporadic Japanese buying in the afternoon, traders said. Nonetheless, market participants said volume remained light as Japanese players made a tentative return from their long weekend. "The market is really very quiet, with mainly small physical buying," said a Sydney-based trader.

Indeed, he was one of several sources who said the increasingly nervous gold market was finding support at lower prices from physical buying interest around the region and elsewhere. "We see physical demand providing support at US$376, with a breach of this (level) seeing US$367-US$365 as the next levels," added ABN AMRO. Others cited initial support at US$375, followed by a further layer near US$365.. –END-

Gold Futures Rise in Asian Trading, Helped by Buying From Ch…

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold for December delivery in New York rose in Asian trading, helped by buying from China, halting yesterday`s decline, when the benchmark contract had its biggest drop in a month because of a rise in the U.S. dollar……

``We saw some bargain-hunting in Asia; a lot of that from ma…

–END-

I can’t recall seeing "mainland China" mentioned before in a news service story on gold. Wonderful to see it in print, especially since it tends to confirm The Stalker (thought to be a Chinese buyer) news brought to your attention for weeks/months now. That the Chinese are buying in size at these relatively elevated levels is VERY constructive. It also confirms what John Brimelow and I have been saying for an awful long time. The gold market is about the physical market versus The Gold Cartel. Other issues are important, but secondary. When the physical market overpowers the corrupt cabal, gold will fly. But first the bad guys must be beaten.

Yesterday’s gold open interest fell 7236 contracts to 260,28…

Because the gold market is still manipulated, predicting the short-term is extremely difficult. However, it seems to me forces are coming together that make it likely we will get a price explosion in the near future. The cash market is on fire with buying surfacing all over the world. The Iraq War situation is a disaster and worsening. The longer term Iraq implications for the US, our reputation, and budget deficits are bleak. The US stock market has been going up all year. Complacency is extraordinarily high, even as the most successful investors of all time say get out, as do executive insiders. The dollar has been weak, but rallied of late. The odds of the Iraq War worsening, the stock market falling sharply and the dollar swooning are very high. With the physical market so firm, gold could soar at any time. The Gold Cartel ought to be overwhelmed.

Silver’s rebound was impressive. Seeing it close above $5 is…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, November 04, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.60, PM $$7.81, with world gold at $377 and $378.50. High: well above legal import levels. This is basis Bombay, but all Indian reporting points are comfortably in legal import territory. The Bombay Stock Exchange hit another 43 month high today: October is reported to have seen the largest inflow of foreign portfolio investment into India since this was permitted a decade ago. The world’s largest gold importer continues to prosper.

A number of commentaries note an upswing in physical offtake because of lower prices, including one on Reuters which says

"In Singapore, the etrepot for much of the bullion trade in …
(JB emphasis)

(Indonesia is benefiting from a tropical product price surge, notably for Rubber.) Anomalously, this same story reports that bar premiums in Hong Kong have turned negative, (which is the aspect Reuters chooses to headline), but this seem likely to be outdated. The Shanghai Gold Exchange indicates the highest premiums today since mid October, and Bloomberg quotes a Rothschild source in Hong Kong reporting

"some bargain-hunting…a lot of that from mainland China"

Not unreasonably, TOCOM remains totally unimpressed. Volume dropped 34% from Friday to the equivalent of 20,850 Comex lots, with open interest slipping by 708 Comex; the active contract was down 14 yen. Gold did edge up 30c from the NY close. Without a down trending yen, or at least a firmly up trending $US gold price, Japanese commodity traders have little reason to be involved. (NY on Friday traded 50,386 contracts, with open interest adding 386 lots; yesterday’s volume was estimated at 53,000 lots.)

Western Hemisphere dealers, however, are impressed – with the ferocity of yesterday’s raid in NY. The fact it was a raid, and not a simple response to the dollar, is underlined by the silver comment from UBS:

"Silver came under pressure immediately after the open as on…
(JB emphasis)

ScotiaMocatta’s account:

"Gold initially traded up to 384.80/385.20 where dealer offe…

This emphasis on "fund" and "local" selling is probably more realistic that the wire services’ emphasis on long liquidation.

With today’s announcement from the ECB that a subordinate Ce…

Doubtless what has been reported is only the Iceberg top. With this knowledge, predator funds are no doubt emboldened in launching their characteristically violent and technically-gauged blows at the market. Dollar fluctuations are only indirectly involved.

No wonder the Dealers are nervous.

And fathers of Indian brides, vintage late 2003, much happier.

JB

[tamara93]

@ thai guru

schau Dir bitte mal in Australien strategic minerals an.
Es scheint jetzt los zu gehen.
Heute wurde ein announcement an der asx veröffentlicht, dass barrick gold gemäss dem farm in agreement mit drillen begonnen hat.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031105/pdf/3jnmyyb4c8tq9.pdf
und schon steigt der Kurs auf 0,265 A$, Bohrergebnisse soll es bis Ende des Monats geben.

weitere links:
Thread : Thread: strategic minerals - der kracher der nächsten Monate?!?

Homepage strategic : http://www.stratmin.com.au


falls Du Lust, Zeit und Interesse hast würde mich Deine Meinung dazu interessieren.

Gruss tamara

[Glück]

Hallo Ihr Goldfreaks;

Ich hätte gerne einmal ein paar Tips für Goldaktien,
die sowohl gute Kurschancen als auch eine ansehbare
Dividenrendite haben.

Danke

Glück

[M@trix]

Hallo!

Der Gold - Bullenmarkt ist weiter intakt.
Näheres dazu hier: http://www.new-sense.net/wirtschaft/sonstiges/boerseninfo22.…

Hinweisend,
M@trix

[ThaiGuru]

@M@trix

Sehr interessanter Bericht von Marco Feiten

Für besonders zutreffend, und bemerkenswert halte ich das im PDF File vorgefundene Zitat von Howard Buffet zum Gold Standard.

Ich kann keine Beweise finden, die die Hoffnung unterstützen würden, dass unsere Papierwährung
sich letztlich besser entwickeln wird als vergleichbare Experimente in anderen
Ländern. Wegen unser wirtschaftlichen Stärke könnte die Krankheit des Papiergeldes bei uns
viele Jahre brauchen, bis sie sich voll entwickelt ... aber wir könnten auch bald schon die kritische
Phase erreichen. Wenn dieser Tag eintrifft, dann werden unsere politischen Führer
wahrscheinlich finden, dass ein ausländischer Krieg und rücksichtslose Reglementierungen
die glänzende Alternative zu einer heimischen Wirtschaftskrise sind."
Howard Buffet, der Vater der Investmentlegende Warren Buffett" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Der Goldstandard war ein ruhiger Wachhund, der unbegrenzte …

[ThaiGuru]

@tamara93





Bitte sei mir nicht böse, aber mir gefällt diese Firma nicht. Nicht etwa weil mir speziell irgend etwas negatives zu Strategic Minerals bekannt ist, sondern einzig und alleine darum, weil DIE Goldpreis Manipulations Firma, "Barrick Gold" mit involviert ist.

Mir persönlich ist alles suspekt was auch nur im entferntesten mit Barrick Gold zu tun hat.

Wie Du ja sicher auch schon weisst, beginnt gerade jetzt das Beweisverfahren im Prozess Blanchard gegen Barrick wegen Gold Preis Betrügereien.

Das heisst nun aber nicht unbedingt, dass Strategic Minerals keine Chance hat preislich anzusteigen, es heisst nur, dass ich persönlich nichts mit dieser Firma zu tun haben will.

Noch ein Tip: Zahlen welcher Art auch immer, die von Barrick zum Gold veröffentlicht werden, solltest Du nur mit grosser Vorsicht geniessen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Glück

Kingsgate Gold *KCN* 6.61% Australien

Harmony Gold *HMY* 2.74% Südafrika

Gold Filds *GFI* 2.02% Südafrika

Gold Corp *GG* 1.16% Kanada

[ThaiGuru]

Ob diese Warnung von gestern an die Muslime der Städte Washington, New York, und Los Angeles, diese Städte sofort zu verlassen, irgend etwas mit den steigenden Goldpreisen zu tun hat?



http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SA1203#_edn2



November 4, 2003 No.12

Al-Qa`ida Website Issues Ramadan Warning of Imminent Attacks: Calls on Muslims in DC, NY, and LA to Leave Those Cities

A communiqué issued by the previously unknown "Islamic Bayan Movement" warns Muslims that they should leave Washington DC, New York, and Los Angeles.

The warning initially appeared on the website of Global Islamic Media, at:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/globalislamicmedia/message/173.

The same website has, in recent months, published many communiqués by Jihad groups around the world, as well as Islamic ideological material. The communiqué has since appeared on the Al-Qa`ida affiliated website Al-Faroq. [1]

The communiqué was signed on the fifth of Ramadan, but was p…

It opened with a Koranic verse: "All that is in the heavens and all that is in the earth glorifies Allah. He is the Mighty, the Wise. It is He who turned out the disbelievers from among the People of the Book from their homes at the time of the first banishment. You did not think that they would go forth and they thought that their fortresses would protect them against Allah. But Allah came upon them whence they did not expect and cast terror into their hearts, so that they destroyed their homes with their own hands and the hands of the believers. So take warning, O ye who posses understanding."

The following are excerpts from the communiqué: "The sufferings of your Muslim brothers and of the Mujahideen around the world is no secret to you, our brothers. [They suffer] oppression, tyranny, imprisonment, murder, and banishment by the masters of oppressions and lies in the world, the American rulers, who think [of] themselves as good-doers. Allah is the witness that they write the end of America by their own hands…

"Afghanistan and Iraq are not far away. Their sons there [i.e. U.S. soldiers] are frustrated and defeated and they ask `why are we here?` Yes, they are the only ones who know the bitter truth. How would they not when they see every day dozens of casualties from among their friends, the soldiers who die and nobody, even not their stupid rulers, is sorry for them. Then they hear the lies and distortion their rulers [tell] their people and the peoples of the world regarding the number of their dead and heavy losses…

"Our Muslim brothers in America, we ask you to immediately l…

The communiqué ends with another Koranic verse: "Fight them: Allah will punish them at your hands, and will humiliate them, and will help you to overcome them, and will relieve the minds of the believers."[Koran, Chapter 9, Verse 14]

[Signed]
The Islamic Bayan Movement
5th of Ramadan, 1424

The Al-Qa`ida affiliated website also posted a photograph of a Chinook helicopter along with the following caption: "We shall bring down and destroy the values of the Hubal [2] of this generation"




Logo from Al-Faroq

[Cashlover]

ich glaube, jetzt wird es spannend:





.

hpoth hat es in #7328 schon schön beschrieben:

#7328 von hpoth 03.11.03 11:44:33 Beitrag Nr.: 11.213.305 11213305
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | Antwort schreiben
Kann ja sein aber das sind doch alles nur Projektionen, Gold nähert sich jetzt der kritischen Zone.Sicher ist es spannend.Gut wäre es wenn der Goldpreis im
Fixing in London
p.m. von 370 $ hält und nicht mehr unterschritten wird,ein Abrutscher $ 360 - 365 ist aus technischer Sicht noch haltbar, weniger dürfen es nicht sein.
Die kurzfristige Stützung liegt jetzt zwischen $ 376 und $ 380.Wichtig wird es sein,das daß September-Hoch bei $ 391 klar genommen wird.Dann kommt Gold
nämlich in eine massive Widerstandszone die auf die Jahre 1993/94/1995
zurückgreift.( wie hier schon an anderer Stelle besprochen wurde.)Sie reicht etwa bis $ 418,vieleicht auch bis 420,wo Anfang 1990 die Spitze lag.Wenn
Gold diese Zone durchbricht,könnte sich ein mächtiger Bullenmarkt entwickeln.Aber ob das beim jetzigen Zeitpunkt schon gelingt ist ehr
unwahrscheinlich.Dafür fehlen eigentlich die Voraussetzungen wie eine masive Dollar-Abwertung,und das die großen Baisser in Panik gerieten und
eindecken bzw. eindecken müssen.gruß hpoth

[Schieler]

[Magor]

lag der Silber-Schlusskurs Freitag nicht bei 5.05?
Warum setzen die von Comdirekt diesen bei 4.95 an?
Wie Thai vor kurzem aufgezeigt hatte:
Es ist verblüffend, wie die mit der Wahl dieser Linie und des Rasters (fast) immer treffend liegen ...
da stellte sich die Frage, sind irgendwelche Vorgaben zum drücken schon berücksichtigt?



Nun, in einigen Stunden wird es sich zeigen ...

[hpoth]

# Major,

Bei Kitco war der Kurs vom Silber 5.05 in NY,kann das auch nicht verstehen warum der Kurs auf 4.95 fesstgelegt wurde.
schönen Tag hpoth

[hpoth]

#Magor, Entschuldigung für den falschen Namen, war zu schnell.gruß hpoth

[kaepntnemo]

fyi:
der user twowave postet ja schon seit geraumer zeit auf dem kitco-board wochencharts fuer den goldpreis, die sein noch in der entwicklung befindliches neuronales netz errechnet.
Hier der chart fuer diese Woche:

Mal wieder auf die (scheinbar) magische $400er grenze?
Koennte interessant werden...

gruss
-nemo-

[MX 150]

#7375


ist das nicht der Chart von Merlin?




Mfg.: MX 150

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

[tamara93]

@ ThaiGuru

Strategic Minerals Corporation

Die Richtung stimmt auch



und das bei stabilen Umsätzen von über 3 Mio. Stück

heute fast 20% Plus

und ich denke das geht noch viel weiter

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
(10.11.2003)

Auf Palladium und Silber begibt die Dresdner Bank am 11. November 2003 neue Open-End-Zertifikate.

Die Ölförderung der Opec soll im Oktober um 905 000 Barrel am Tag über der offiziellen Menge von damals noch 25,4 Millionen Barrel gelegen haben, schätzt die amerikanische EIA.

Die Produktion von Goldschmuck in Russland soll in den ersten zehn Monaten 2003 gegenüber dem gleichen Zeitraum des vergangenen Jahres um 30 % gestiegen sein, wird aus Moskau berichtet.

Unter den Industriemetallen verfügen Kupfer und Nickel über die stärksten fundamentalen Bedingungen, erklärt SocGen.

Am Kupfermarkt dürfte die nächste Phase der Hausse von zunehmender amerikanischer Nachfrage ausgehen, erwartet WMC Resources.

Nickel verliert wegen seiner drastischen Verteuerung Marktanteile. Dies berichtet SocGen mit Hinweis auf Diskussionen in Händlerkreisen.

Bei Platin ist der jüngste Preisrückgang durch Käufe der Industrie aufgefangen worden, berichtet Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

Chinesische Silberexporte könnten bei Preisen von weniger als 5 $ je Feinunze künftig versiegen, vermutet Refco.

Die Maisgebiete in Argentinien leiden zu etwa einem Drittel unter Trockenheit, wird aus Buenos Aires berichtet. Die Erzeuger könnten daher mehr Sojabohnen zu Lasten von Mais anbauen.

Die Maisernte in Südafrika könnte 2003/04 wegen Trockenheit nur 7,5 Millionen Tonnen erbringen, heißt es in Händlerkreisen. 2002/03 wurden 9,5 Millionen Tonnen erzeugt.

Die Reisernte in Australien dürfte 2004 wegen besserer Versorgung mit Feuchtigkeit gegenüber dem auslaufenden Jahr von 390 000 Tonnen auf 900 000 Tonnen (Basis Rohreis) steigen, wird aus dem USDA berichtet.

Am europäischen Kaffeemarkt haben die Röster ihren Bedarf für den Augenblick gedeckt, berichtet Sucden.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2003 Tauros GmbH - www.taurosweb.de

[bluemoons]

Is the Washington Agreement a Fraud?

Ed Steer
Archimedes was born in 287 BC in Syracuse, Sicily
Archimedes was a famous mathematician whose theorems and philosophies became world-known. In his own time he gained a reputation few other mathematicians of this period achieved. He is considered by most historians of mathematics as one of the greatest mathematicians of all time. He discovered pi.

Most of the facts about his life come from a biography about the Roman soldier Marcellus written by the Roman biographer Plutarch.

Archimedes was best known for his discovery of the relation between the surface and volume of a sphere and its circumscribing cylinder, for his formulation of a hydrostatic principle -- Archimedes` principle -- and for inventing the Archimedes screw, a device for raising water. Archimedes` Principle states that an object immersed in a fluid experiences a buoyant force that is equal in magnitude to the force of gravity on the displaced fluid.

Legend has it that Archimedes discovered his famous principle while taking a bath. He was so excited that he ran naked through the streets of Syracuse shouting, "Eureka, eureka!" -- "I have found it!"

He also invented things such as the hydraulic screw, the catapult, the lever, the compound pulley, and the burning mirror.

In mechanics Archimedes discovered fundamental theorems concerning the centre of gravity of plane figures and solids.

Archimedes probably spent some time in Egypt early in his career, but he resided for most of his life in Syracuse, the principal city-state in Sicily, where he was on intimate terms with its king, Hieron II. Archimedes published his works in the form of correspondence with the principal mathematicians of his time, including the Alexandrian scholars Conon of Samos and Eratosthenes of Cyrene.

Archimedes played an important role in the defense of Syracuse against the siege laid by the Romans in 213 BC by constructing war machines so effective that they long delayed the capture of the city. But Syracuse eventually was captured by the Roman general Marcus Claudius Marcellus in the autumn of 212 or spring of 211 BC, and Archimedes was killed in the sack of the city. You can read more about Archimedes here.

* * *

We’ve all had times when the light bulb has gone on and we’ve said, “Eureka! That’s it!” These flashes of insight come not only with a feeling of euphoria, but also with the complete answer to the problem or question at hand … a “great seeing,” if you will. You don’t see, you don’t see, you don’t see. ... Then all of a sudden, you see it all.

The experience I had last week was a derivative of that. “Eureka! Is that it?” A question, rather than a declaration of fact.

I didn’t go shouting and running naked through the streets, or even around the office -- but it set off the proverbial light bulb. What precipitated it was an article by Chris Powell, secretary-treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, posted at the GATA Internet site at Yahoo Groups last week. The story involved Germany’s Bundesbank declaring (again) how it was going to be looking for a new agreement to sell even more gold when the Washington Agreement on gold expires in September 2004.

It wasn’t the article itself that was of interest, as we’ve all heard this tired story too many times to let it put the fear of God into us any more. What got my attention was Chris’s preamble to the article. This is what he had to say:

“And now Ernst Welteke, president of the Bundesbank, has given another interview musing about selling the bank`s gold reserves, which happens whenever the central bankers are nervous that the gold price is getting out of hand. A Reuters story about that interview is appended.”

”Keep in mind that when central bankers talk about selling gold, they usually mean writing off as sold their leased gold, gold that is long out of the vault and already sold into the market and a dangerous liability for the bullion banks that borrowed it. Such `sales` don`t add to the gold supply in the market; they help avert a short squeeze by expropriating national assets in favor of influential private interests -- interests that tend to employ central bankers before and after their careers with the central banks.”

The moment that I read that, the “Eureka light” turned on. It occurred to me in a flash that this might be what the entire Washington Agreement was about. I fired off an e-mail to Chris with my suspicions, and this is the reply that I got back:

“So much about the Washington Agreement can`t be any more than speculation, but better minds than mine in our cause – particularly Frank Veneroso -- have thought for some time that `gold sales` were just bailouts for the bullion banks. If so, the Washington Agreement was devilishly clever. It was presented as a way of SUPPORTING the gold price by limiting sales so as to avoid hurting those struggling little countries that actually work for a living. What better cover for a scheme to SUPPRESS the price, or at least to keep it from exploding, then by eliminating the chance of a short squeeze?”

“Veneroso thought from the beginning that gold leasing had gotten out of control and that the central banks collectively didn`t really know how much they had been leasing, and thus were looking for a method of gradual adjustment of the gold price to a more realistic level.”

“I dunno, but I figure that, since they`re all a bunch of crooks, misappropriating public wealth in favor of the money powers, the crookedest explanation is the most probable. ... But then I`m a gold nut!” Chris

* * *

For the first time the entire Washington Agreement makes sense … at least to me. Once the European central banks put their heads together (back in 1999) and came clean with each other, they were absolutely horrified to find just how fast those gold bars were disappearing out of their vaults. That much we already know.

But it was the Washington Agreement that became the red herring to cover their tracks (and their collective behinds) as they attempted to keep a lid on the gold price while they dug themselves out of a physical and paper gold nightmare.

Let’s take a look at the text of the agreement one more time….

* * *

Press Communique -- 26 September 1999
Statement on Gold

Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Banca d`Italia
Banque de France
Banco do Portugal
Schweizerische Nationalbank
Banque Nationale de Belgique
Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Deutsche Bundesbank
Banco de España
Bank of England
Suomen Pankki
De Nederlandsche Bank
Central Bank of Ireland
Sveriges Riksbank
European Central Bank

In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the above institutions make the following statement:

Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.

The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted program of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tonnes and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tonnes.

The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.

This agreement will be reviewed after five years.

* * *

The supposed purpose of the Washington Agreement was to give "transparency" to these European central banks’ gold dealings. They hoped to bring stability to a market that was always threatened by fears of central banks sales of gold. The "pomp and circumstance" that accompanied this announcement was very impressive. The central banks stated that they would not sell any more gold than their already arranged sales, which (they said) had been made prior to the signing of the agreement.

Now why would all these now desperate central banks come up with an agreement to sell even more gold, when the real purpose of the agreement was to stop it all together?

Item 3 in the agreement is the red herring. It is a smokescreen behind which the banks are, as Chris Powell said, “writing off as sold their leased gold, gold that is long out of the vault and already sold into the market and a dangerous liability for the bullion banks that borrowed it. Such `sales` don`t add to the gold supply in the market; they help avert a short squeeze by expropriating national assets in favor of influential private interests.”

The last half of Item 2 of the agreement falls into the same category. If you remove that part of the sentence, plus all of Item 3, we have something closer to the truth. Read through the agreement again without those items. Veneroso and Powell are probably correct.

Would the 2,000 tonnes the central banks said they were going to sell be over and above the approximately 1,400-tonnes-per-year deficit of gold demand over supply? The agreement doesn’t say, but I can’t see how that would be possible. It’s obvious that the gold used to meet the deficit is coming out of central bank vaults at the rate of three to four tonnes per day. It would be interesting to know which banks are the unlucky ones who are supplying this demand, and whether they really want to.

Since the Washington Agreement was signed over four years ago, more than 4,000 tonnes of gold have left central bank vaults to fill the gap between mine supply (plus scrap) and physical demand. Another thousand plus tonnes will leave central bank vaults during 2004 as well. The central banks are being bled white.

One of the other logs to toss on this golden bonfire is the repayment of part or all of the hedge books of some of the gold companies over the last few years. I don’t have the exact figure in front of me, but I seem to remember that 500+ tonnes was the number for 2002. The amount of gold originally borrowed by mining companies and now being repaid to their bullion banks (either in paper of one kind of another -- or in physical) has been quite substantial over the last number of years. As others have pointed out, if the bullion banks are being paid back and are covering their own short positions in gold, how come this gold isn’t being shipped back out the door to the central banks to cover their short position as well? Just asking.

The reason is pretty obvious – at least to me. The gold is being sold into the market by the bullion banks even before it hits their front door … undoubtedly with the full blessing of the central banks that originally owned all this leased gold. By doing things this way, the central banks slow the rate at which gold continues to leave their vaults. They just take cash in lieu of physical from the bullion banks – just as they have been publicly saying they wanted to do all along…selling gold (a dead asset) to earn an interest rate on the proceeds. This is how the central banks are helping the bullion banks out of ‘short squeeze’ danger. Real cute, isn’t it?

Wait a minute....

Well, golly gee! Look what just rolled off the presses from Reuters as reported in Bill Murphy’s "Midas" commentary at www.lemetropolecafe.com for November 4. Talking about paying down hedge books -- here’s what Gold Fields Mineral Services has to say….

“NEW YORK, Nov. 4 (Reuters) -- For the first time in almost two years, global gold companies in the third quarter were net forward sellers of gold, taking advantage of rising market prices to protect the value of unmined bullion, according to market research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services.

"According to GFMS Managing Director Philip Klapwijk, gold miners collectively sold around 1 tonne of gold last quarter, after seven consecutive quarters of unusual net buying by producers to unwind hedges and benefit from the bull market in bullion.

"Producer hedge buybacks played a significant role in gold`s rally this year. Spot bullion hit a 7-year high at $393.30 an ounce on Sept. 25 and traded around $380 on Tuesday. Klapwijk was citing the results of the fourth Quarterly Gold Hedge Book Analysis, produced by GFMS on behalf of Investec, an international specialist banking group. He told Reuters on the sidelines of a precious metals seminar sponsored by GFMS and the Silver Institute that the amount of gold hedged was less important than the change in profile of producers back to being net sellers.

"A GFMS/Investec press release on Tuesday said the report states that the global hedge book, adjusted for options delta, was essentially unchanged from the second quarter at 71.6 million ounces (2,227 tonnes).”

* * *

Well now -- all these ounces that the bullion banks were getting back from the pay-downs on the hedge books of the gold companies have disappeared during the last quarter. That means (of course) that the bullion banks are getting NO extra gold from the gold miners, and every ounce to cover the deficit is now coming right out of central bank vaults. Ouch! (Despite that, the gold price has continued to rise! Fancy that! I thought that that was what ‘the boys’ were giving the world as the only reason that the gold price was going up! I think it’s time for them to go back to the drawing board on that one.)

And talk about perfect timing -- In the same MIDAS commentary, gold market analyst John Brimelow posts the following:

“A number of commentaries note an upswing in physical of off take because of lower prices, including one on Reuters, which says:

"`In Singapore, the report for much of the bullion trade in Southeast Asia, shows a steady demand for gold especially from neighbouring Indonesia. This helped bullion bars stay at a premium of 10 U.S. cents, down from 30 cents two weeks ago. ... Indonesia … has been importing up to four tonnes of gold bars daily in the past few weeks, up from one tonne on a normal day."

Brimelow continues:

“With today’s announcement from the European Central Bank that a subordinate central bank sold 5 tonnes last week adding to the indication yesterday from the Swiss National Bank that it sold a larger than usual 9-10 tonnes in the same period, a picture is emerging of heavily accelerated central bank selling as gold approaches $390. Doubtless what has been reported is only the iceberg top.”

Let me offer a different opinion.

The ECB and the Swiss National Bank (and others) are shouting from the rooftops that they are selling gold by the truckload because they have no choice but to sell. As I mentioned previously, it takes three or four tonnes of gold per day just to meet the deficit, and that little story two paragraphs ago about Indonesia importing “up to four tonnes of gold bars daily in the past few weeks” chews up the 15 tonnes sold by the Swiss National Bank and the "subordinate" central bank in a week or less. Someone with a more suspicious nature might even assume that these two stories are directly related to each other.

What it boils down to is the central banks and bullion banks are making a virtue out of necessity. As GATA`s Murphy long has said, they have to sell it or the price explodes.

Then, quickly on the heels of that commentary, Tim Wood of MineWeb.com comes up with this little gem: “Central Bank Gold Sales on Knife-Edge”. I can’t speak for you, but along with the ramblings of Buba (Bundesbank), this “Washington Agreement II” they talk about is plain unadulterated "el toro poo poo”.

Smoke is billowing everywhere: Britain and its gold sales, Swiss bank sales of “surplus” gold, and the unexpected sales by Portugal, attributed by some to deliveries required under maturing call options written in earlier years, as GATA consultant Reg Howe has noted. Lastly, there appear to be some interesting goings-on in the gold department of one of the Dutch banks.

Here at home in Canada, the Bank of Canada continues to announce (almost monthly) the sale of a little more of what’s left of our gold reserves, which are now less than ten tonnes.

That too is a crock.

When I published my essay "When Irish Eyes are Smiling: the story of Brian Mulroney and Canada’s gold," the good folks at the Bank of Canada told me that there had been no physical gold in the bank vaults for years. To quote my essay directly: "They advised me (early in 2002) that Canada does not really own this gold at all (at the time we were supposed to have about 40 tonnes). What was left of it had been leased out to various bullion banks years ago …and yes, it (was) being accounted for as requested by International Monetary Fund accounting rules regarding leased gold. Canada’s gold cupboard is bare … not a 400-oz. good-delivery bar in sight.”

So when the Bank of Canada is announcing these sales, they are just announcing the closing of forward sales contracts that were entered into literally years ago. How many years is anyone’s guess.

Now, back to all this gold that’s being sold. Lost in all of this is the question: Who is buying, and, by extension, who is being bailed out? Part of the gold is covering the daily deficit, and part of it is for … what?

And gold derivatives continue rocketing skyward with every passing quarter.

As others (and now I) have pointed out for years, none of this activity is showing up in the annual (or monthly) inventory reports of the World Gold Council or Gold Fields Mineral Services. To put the credibility of the Washington Agreement in the esteemed company of these two organizations requires little mental effort. I think I’ll toss the IMF and its gold-reporting standards into this distinguished group as well, for gold in hand, gold receivables, and gold swaps are recorded the same way, as being “in the vault." And how about CPM Group? Sure, why not? Off to the guillotine with the lot of them!

After more than seven years, this derivatives-shrouded game of Three-Card Monty is starting to wear a little thin, and it’s my belief that the Washington Agreement is a total farce, a piece of paper to wave at the gold world and shout “Boo!!!” every time the gold price shows any signs of “irrational exuberance”. Bill Murphy’s interview with Tim Wood at MineWeb pretty well sums it up.

And if a new Washington Agreement takes effect in October 2004, it will be (in my opinion) another con job, just like the current agreement.

Somehow, I just don’t think they’re going to get that far before the whole thing blows up. With Andy Smith of Mitsui recently moaning and groaning over at MineWeb about "speculators" driving the price up and how it’s going to end badly for the longs, you just have to know that the shorts are in a world of hurt.

In closing, I’d like to quote someone a little more genteel, and whose understanding of the situation is certainly more visionary than mine. Reg Howe had this to say in the last paragraph of his essay "Long Con: Mother of All Bank Runs":

“In many ways a more interesting question is how foreign central banks -- stuffed to the gills with dollar-denominated paper -- can accomplish the same objective." (That is, protecting themselves from an imploding dollar -- Ed) "And the answer is the same: with gold, their traditional reserve asset. When the central banks realize that too many are not just wise to their scam but also are taking advantage of it, that the gold con artists themselves have become the marks, then the greatest bank run in history will shift into high gear. It will be a run not just from dollars or even from paper currency in general, but from modern central banking itself, as the lenders of last resort succumb to the resurrected worldwide preference for the financial asset of last resort.”

It’s my bet that there aren’t a lot of central banks left in Europe right now that “stand ready to lease gold should the price rise,” to use Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s words -- and those that are, are probably not very happy about it.

And my opinion is that this is all about to end badly – and soon. It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of crooks.

If you feel that my vision of the Washington Agreement is closer to the truth than what’s actually in the document itself, then all bouquets, kudos, and "attaboys" should be sent to Frank Veneroso and Chris Powell. If you disagree, then all fruits and vegetables that come to hand -- in whatever state of ripeness (or decomposition) they are in -- should be directed to the writer at the e-mail address below.



Ed Steer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
Edmonton, Alberta CANADA
[e-mail]

http://www.gata.org/WashingtonAgreement.html

[tamara93]

Habt Ihr gesehen strategic minerals steigt weiter

Kurs heute 0,345 A$

Als ich meinen Thread ).Thread: strategic minerals - der kracher der nächsten Monate?!? begonnen habe lag der Kurs bei 0,10 A$ (am 19.05.2002 man musste schon Geduld haben).

Weiere Infos auch auf der Homepage http://www.stratmin.com.au/

[GoldSeiten_de]

Ferdinand Lips Buch: "Die Gold-Verschwörung"(engl. Ausgabe: Gold Wars) endlich lieferbar

http://www.goldseiten.de/shop/buchladen/buecher-1.htm

[gerinv]

oops, 17:29, gld.fx1 bei comdirect hat plötzlich 15$ Platz nach unten (385>370).

[voracon]

einen für die goldverschwörer


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/1110.html


das wäre doch cool, wenn das zentralbank gold bald alle ist

müssen dann alle eheringe zum einschmelzen

und alles nur damit bill gates jeden tag in goldmilch baden kann

[Jompahban]

Mal eine Frage an die Spezialisten:

Was ist eigentlich ein "nacked short sell?"
.
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.
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.
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.
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Wenn die Bundesbank ihr Gold verkauft

[voracon]

#7385

wenn man das was man verkauft, nicht vorher "leiht"

also verkaufen ohne von leihbaren beständen beschränkt zu sein

wer diese verkäufe kauft, wo kriegt der dann seine aktien her , die gibts doch garnicht

das ist dann ein naked buy, man zahlt und kriegt nix


jetzt bin ich aber perplex

[Eurocop2000]

Gold steht seit Tagen knapp unter 390 $ und keine Euphorie im Board! Was will man mehr.

[silvo]

Hallo Eurocop!

Das seh ich ganz genau so.
Es wird jedoch nicht lang bei 390,-- bleiben.
Die 400,-- werden mit Sicherheit "schlagartig" genommen.

Dann wird auch hier "plötzlich" wieder einiges los sein!

mfg

[Eurocop2000]

Hallo Silvo!

Leichte Sorgen bereitet mir, daß der heutige Euroanstieg
sich nicht im Goldpreis niederschlägt Die 390 scheint für viele sehr wichtig zu sein. Da sich auch in den anderen Märkten Ereignislosigkeit breit macht, interpretiere ich das mal als Ruhe vor dem Sturm.
Eurocop

[Eurocop2000]

Die Deutsche Bank hat eben Ihren langlaufenden Gold-Call (709032) ohne Umsätze um 10 Cent nach oben gesetzt. Warum wohl?!

[keepitshort]

@Eurocop2000
#7390

diese Bemerkung ist sehr nützlich

[valueinvestor]

Also dieses mal habe ich bei dem Anlauf auf die 400 ein gutes Gefühl. Normalerweise hätte nach den US Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktdaten Gold in den Keller gehen müssen - nur glaubt keiner mehr den Zahlen.
Und das Goldsentiment ist immer noch sehr negativ - viele Threads zu hochinteressanten Minen sind hier fast völlig eingeschlafen, wo früher jedes Zucken im Chart lebhaftes Gackern ausgelöst hat (z.B. Bema).

Diesmal klappt es!

gruß value

[silverpwd]

Gold durchbricht die 390. Rand schwach.
Euro up. DAX up.
Amis up.

[Leon der Profi]

na, was ist los, verschlägt`s Euch gerade allen die Sprache??

Gold 396
Silber 5,24

[Waschbr]

Tjo,

und der Euro hält sich bei 1,16!

Wenn jetzt nicht die Kuh vom Eis geholt wird, platzt da ein Deckel endgültig!

[ThaiGuru]

[Magor]

na also!
Warum hat es denn so lange gedauert, bis der Knoten platzte???
Und Silber weist hell glänzend den Weg.
Da fallen mir doch meine Restbestände Clifton ein,
die neben mmn, itro, ssri,
und age bei Verteidigung der 5.20 und in Visiernahme höherer Ziele heftig abrauschen müssten ...
: - ))

auf die Plätze,
fertig ...

Tut mir leid für die mittlerweile abgehüpften ...

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Heute ist wieder einmal mehr Zahltag!

Glücklich wer nicht auf die Gold, und Silber Pessimisten geh…

Silber ist über 4% gestiegen heute, lang, lang ist`s her seit dem letzten Tagesanstieg in dieser Grössenordnung.
Wie es momentan aussieht kann sich Silber halten.

That`s only the beginning!!!

[Schieler]

[Insiderin007]

Nur ein Gerücht ? Ein Spinner ? Vielleicht ! Oder doch nicht ?

There is a MAJOR rumor out there
by: cosrtr 11/12/03 12:16 pm
Msg: 148086 of 148130

I heard from a VERY good source of mine just now that there is a rumor that a Fed official may make a speech within the next week advocating a partial linkage of gold to the dollar. Some think this is what is driving the price of gold today.

If this happens, you will see gold trade up $25 in one day; the juniors would go crazy.

[ThaiGuru]

@Schieler

Danke für den tollen Chart!

Aus diesem Dreieck ist der Silberpreis nun wohl zwischenzeit…

Was lange währt wird endlich gut, könnte man sagen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/11/12/196256.html

Tödlicher Anschlag auf italienisches Militärquartier im Irak

Ein Lastwagen ist vor dem Stützpunkt in Nassirija explodiert…

Schwarze Rauchschwaden steigen vom italienischen Armeequartier auf
Foto: AP

Rom/Nassirija - Im der Stadt Nasarija im Süden des Irak sind bei einem Anschlag auf das Hauptquartier der italienischen Armee mindestens 25 Menschen getötet worden. Dies teilte der italienische Verteidigungsminister Antonio Martino vor dem Parlament am Mittwochabend in Rom mit.

Martino zufolge starben mindestens 17 Italiener, darunter el…

Nach Berichten italienischer TV-Sender wurden insgesamt 59 Menschen verletzt. Italiens Verteidigungsminister sagte weiter, dass ein Lastwagen vor der Kaserne explodiert sei. Es handelt sich um den bislang schwersten Anschlag auf Verbündete der USA im Irak.

Lastwagen explodiert

Die italienische Armee geht von einem Selbstmordattentat aus…

Zahlreiche Fahrzeuge seien und ein Munitionslager in Flammen aufgegangen. Die italienische Regierung hatte im Juni ein Kontingent von 2300 Soldaten in den Irak entsandt. Italien hatte das militärische Vorgehen der USA und Großbritanniens gegen den Irak politisch unterstützt. Staatspräsident Carlo Azeglio Ciampi verurteilte den Anschlag und sprach den Angehörigen der getöteten Soldaten sein Beileid aus. WELT.de/dpa/AP

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

@Insiderin007

#7400

Falls dieses Greücht zutreffen sollte, gibt`s einen weltweiten Goldrausch mit Preissteigerungen beim Gold die sich die wenigsten Leser richtig ausmalen können!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[voracon]

@thai guru

wenn das stimmen würde sehe ich da mehr einen fake drinnen,
um einen zusammenbruch des us-$ zu verhindern

ausserdem wie soll denn das gehen



goldpreis 100000-$ die unze vielleicht ?????

eine goldbindung macht erst sinn nach enormen inflationen um der neuen währung wieder leben einzuhauchen


insofern wäre ich da höchst skeptisch ...

das einzige was ich mir vorstellen könnte, wäre gold für die breite bevölkerung nicht mehr zugänglich zu machen

[ThaiGuru]

Habe gerade im Tread vom Gold Pessimisten "IMOEN" ein Posting gelesen, dass mir fast die Sprache verschlagen hat.

Nicht nur, dass "Imoen" nicht müde wird in seinem Thread zu …

Das Barrick Gold als ein Goldinvestment nicht nur für jeden Gold Bug ein echtes Unding darstellt, sondern überdies noch ein gewaltiges Risiko bedeutet, wegen der gerade laufenden zig Prozessen wegen "Betrug" an den Aktionären, mind. 4 Sammelklagen wurden eingereicht, und der bereits im Beweisverfahren stehenden Klage von Blanchard gegen Barrick Gold, wegen jahrelanger Goldpreis Manipulation, in Zusammenarbeit mit JP-Morgan, und ihren existenzbedrohenden riesigen Gold Vorwärtsverkäufen, darüber verliert der Imoen keinen einzigen Ton.

Hoffe nur, dass er wenigstens die Courage besitzt allfällige…

Der Mann ist unseriös, und zudem in meinen Augen, wissentlich, oder unwissentlich ein billiger Gold Cabal Interessen Vertreter.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

Thai,
überbewertest Du da nicht jemanden?
Gold Cabal Interessenvertreter ...

[silvo]

Halo Thai!


Imoen hin oder her,
Gold wird seinenWeg nach oben auch ohne ihn gehen,



(Silber erst recht!!)

[Imoen]

@Thai

Dir hat es dort unten wirklich den Bregen verbrannt.

Ich habe von Barrick eine " rein charttechnische " Analyse reingestellt wie u.a. von Newmont auch, sonst gar nichts.

Kann jeder in meinem Thread überprüfen.

Aber ich verzeihe Dir, Paranoia ist ja inzwischen eine anerkannte Krankheit.

Gott sei deiner armen Seele gnädig.

[ThaiGuru]

@voracon

Sehe ich, falls das Gerücht zutreffen sollte auch wie Du eher als Versuch einen allfälligen ausser Konrolle geratenden Dollar abzufedern.

Die Gold Preise würden trotzden gewaltig ansteigen, und 1000.- Dollar wären wohl sehr schnell erreicht.

An eine 100%ige Golddeckung denke ich nicht. Falls doch, müsste, einer Studie von Rio Tinto zufolge, die Unze Gold mit ca. 30`000.- US Dollar pro Unze bewertet werden!

Werde Dir den Link zur Studie gelegentlich hier noch reistellen. (Suche den Link gerade)

Bis dahin kann ich Dir selbst, und allen anderen Lesern, eine andere in deutscher Sprache verfasste Studie zum Lesen empfehlen. Ist schon etwas älter aber trotzdem so zutreffend und aktuell wie wenn sie gerade heute geschrieben wurde.

http://www.paganlord.de/DEUTSCH/NAVIGAT-HAUPT/FKHurz.htm

15300.- Dollar pro Unze müssten theoretisch die deutschen Goldreserven bewertet werden, damit die Schulden Deutschlands abgegolten wären, schrieb der Autor Armin Hurz in seiner Studie "Dem Finanzkollaps entgegen"

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Imoen

Sag ich doch "Imoen", Du setzt ein Barrick bullisches Posting unter dem Titel:

Gold: BARRICK Gold zieht nach oben durch,

in Deinen Tread, und animierst dadurch mindestens indirekt die Leser dazu in Barrick Gold zu investieren, anstatt vor Barrick und ihren Risiken zu warnen.

Aber wie ich Deiner Wortwahl entnehmen kann, fehlt es Dir nicht nur an Weitsicht in Sachen Gold, sondern auch an Einsicht, und Kritikvermögen.

Dass Du noch vor ganz kurzer Zeit von fallenden Goldpreisen geträumt, und geschrieben hast, davon konnte ich wenigsten heute in Deinem Gold Pessimisten Thread ausnahmsweise nichts lesen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Imoen]

@Thai

Das ist wieder Dein selektives Wahrnehmungsvermögen.

Ich habe seit Wochen von meinem sogenannten Masterplan geschrieben, nämlich das der Euro abstürzt und Gold dabei einigermassen stabil bleibt.

Der Grundgedanke dabei war, das wenn der euro dann wieder anzieht es deutlich leichter ist Gold über 400 zu hebeln.

Dieses Gedankenspiel hab ich sogar fast täglich wiederholt.

Weiss auch nicht was Du immer so zusammen liest oder aus dem Zusammenhang reisst.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031112/markets_gold_6.html

Reuters

UPDATE - Gold soars to 7-year high, $400/oz in crosshairs

Wednesday November 12, 12:31 pm ET
By Alden Bentley

NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Gold futures rallied to 7-1/2-year highs in New York Wednesday, as investors diversified out of the dollar and commodity funds took aim at the $400 an ounce psychological objective.
"It just looks awesome," said one bullion trader at a U.S. commercial bank.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, December gold broke above the 2003 high set in September after London trading wrapped up for the day, topping at $397.00 an ounce, its highest since March 1996.

At 11:56 a.m. EST (1656 GMT), the benchmark contract (0#GC was up $6.10 at $394.30, well above a session low of $387.80.

A deadly bombing at an Italian military police base in Iraq Wednesday underscored gold`s recent safe-haven gains after the weekend suicide attack in Saudi Arabia which has been blamed on al Qaeda.

"It is just a lack of selling in the market. The dollar cont… said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank.

A rise in the euro to a 13-day high at $1.1660 made it more attractive for European investors to buy dollar-priced gold.

Spot gold (XAU=) topped at $395.85 and was quoted at $393.95/4.65, up from the close at $387.60/8.10 in New York on Tuesday.

The focus has shifted from worries about economic recovery as speculators hunted for excuses to keep buying, brokers said.

The benchmark contract is up almost $18 since bottoming at $376.50 on Friday, right after the U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased 123,000 last month, putting to rest worries about a jobless recovery.

In COMEX options trade, there has been very strong interest in December $400 calls, which are bets that gold will get there by December. By conferring the right to buy the December futures contract at $400, these become more profitable the closer prices get to that popular strike price.

As prices rise, options desks must "delta" hedge these sales by purchasing futures, in case they have to deliver. This process can accelerate upmoves before options expire.

"Everybody is waiting for the $400 (level) to be tested. Tog… another trader in Germany said in an e-mail conversation.

[silverpwd]

Hauptsache dieses Dreckszeug steigt und der Rand auch.

Was Barrick macht interessiert JPM.
Obwohl man an Barricks Chart schon wieder im Vorfeld ahnen kann, was Gold macht, wie das halt bei liq. Grosscaps in Amiland so ist... (Ami-Penner)

[ThaiGuru]

Weil er so schööön anzusehen ist!

Silber:

[ThaiGuru]

November 12 - Gold $394.20 up $6.60 - Silver $5.32 up 25 cents

Gold/Silver And The Shares Rise Sharply

LONDON FIX

Music Changing With The Price Of Gold
New York c…

GO GATA!!!!

Been waiting a long time for today. Gold finally closed above the high it made early last February before the Iraq War started and higher than its $393 spike made 7 weeks ago. Going back to February, gold tanked going into the Iraq War all the way down to $319 and now has gradually worked its way back up and then some.

Today’s close is significant in that it took out substantial resistance in the high $380’s area, blowing right through it. At one point today, gold was up $9, but you know that The Gold Cartel won’t allow that sort of move to stand, even though they are getting their butt handed to them. The $6 rule was invoked for the umpteenth time to hold gold’s managed gain to an acceptable cabal level.

Sarge caught the action mid-morning:

"I know you see it too. Spot was up $8.60 when the Cabal mar…

Early on, sources reported to me that funds were big buyers along with PRODUCERS covering hedges. The cabal and other bullion dealers were massive sellers all day long. Volume was heavy - around 70,000 contracts. The Gold Cartel needed all the firepower they could muster to keep gold from blowing through $400.

Three important factors in today’s healthy rally:

*The continued strength in the physical market.

*The specs are piling in again. As per last night’s MIDAS, I opined if they did so The Gold Cartel would be in big trouble. Yesterday, the open interest rose 7881 contracts to 270,895. It probably rose that much again today. There is no reason the gold open interest cannot exceed 300,000 on this latest move into 7 ½ year high ground.

*The dollar was clobbered falling to 93.40, down .82. The euro rose 1.49 to 116.30. However, for those who keep pointing to the falling dollar as the main reason gold is rising, the evidence reveals they are WRONG! The dollar index last made a closing low on June 16 at 92.16. The gold price on that day: $356.30. The dollar has fallen back to almost where it was then, but gold has rallied nearly $40. Gold is moving higher because of the incredible demand for physical around the world, not because the dollar has suddenly weakened. Why do we not hear this from the gold establishment crowd? Because they are aligned with the crooks, plain and simple! Month after month MIDAS brings this to your attention. Why isn’t this being trumpeted by the World Gold Council and GFMS? What a useless bunch! Both organizations should be disbanded as detrimental to the free gold world.

Gold’s close has to have technicians everywhere doing the gold rah-rah bit today. (where were they the past few days?) As mentioned yesterday, gold is now set up to rally another $20 to $30 from here on the basis of this strong close and breaking of significant resistance.

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C3

As MIDAS has been saying for some time, The Gold Cartel is i…

*The massive December option positions go off the board on the 24th of November. This might cause enormous problems for the cabal, other shorts and the option writers. The following are the open December call positions as of this morning. This is December only and represents only the Comex. The Over-the-Counter market is MUCH BIGGER!!!!

DEC 390 – 5200 contracts
DEC 395 – 2550
DEC 400 – 14,000
DEC…

You might recall The Café’s man in the gold options pit told us months ago that the option writers almost all believed there was no chance for gold to take out $420. They had little cover for their positions above $400. This is just the Comex option book. Multiply that many times for the off-exchange options. Get the picture? Gold could easily melt-up in the weeks ahead. Last trading day for the Comex DEC options is November 24 on the bell.

This is why there is a good deal of talk that if gold takes out $400, gold could explode and the long awaited gold derivatives neutron bomb could go off. We shall see. For sure however, it is why The Gold Cartel is desperately trying to cap the price here.

They might have one other problem. A source tells me it is very possible (based on his past experience) the National Commercial Bank of Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) was a featured buyer today. If so, the cabal is in even deeper trouble. Historically, when this bank has jumped in on the long side of gold, bullion has REALLY moved higher.

*One more thing. The December open interest is more than 175…

As well as gold performed, silver was the star of the day. Been waiting for silver to pop like this for a long time. The best news is there are no silver gaps to fill. For some reason silver tends to fill downside gaps. Silver was down 2 cents on the session in the early going.

Move over Mahendra! This morning I received a phone call from Judith McGee of Refco in Canada. Judith told me her partner Tony Wilson had a dream last night that silver would rally 28 cents. Silver was UNCHANGED at the time. December silver closed 26.3 cents higher and traded up 28 cents near the end of the trading period. This is the doggondest thing. My brother Tim used to get the same premonitions on a rare occasion and many came true just like this one. Never happened to me. Congrats to Tony who also told me last Friday he thought gold would have no problem taking out $390 on the next move up. Right again! The guy has been on some roll lately as has been his partner Judith.

Silver (needs a couple of more cents on the upside to close in new high ground on a futures basis, but I believe spot has made a new multi-year high close)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/C3

$6 silver here we come.

Another big positive has been the all around confirming action. Gold, silver and the shares all flew, while the commodity markets continue their trek into new high ground. The CRB closed in 7-year new high ground too at 253.13, up 1.53. Wheat closed above $4.

I could not help but repeat this MIDAS headliner of last Friday. One for the call and two to keep Winthorpe’s quote in mind for when gold takes out $420 and goes berserk:

November 7 - Gold $382.50 up $2.60 - Silver $5.05 up 10 cents

Gold Looks EXPLOSIVE!!

Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That`s the other guy`s problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the unlimited carnage you are about to witness. Superbowl, World Series -- they don`t know what pressure is. In this building, it`s either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One moment you`re up half a mil in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don`t go to college and they`ve repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?
--Louis Winthorpe III, Trading Places

GO GATA!!!

Aaron Russo for President (Producer of Trading Places)

The gold futures speak for themselves (one always need be wary), but some of the gold shares are going to go ballistic and then get clobbered before they resume their HISTORIC INVESTMENT MOVE OF A LIFETIME! There will be a time to lighten up, but we aren’t close yet. The public still is clueless about this gold/silver market. So is most of the gold industry. Good grief!

Still, it is time to be on alert over the next few weeks. AN…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, November 12, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.91, PM $3.71, with world gold at $388 and $388.30. Below legal import point. To put this in perspective, during the surge from below $320 to (fleetingly) $380 Dec ’02 – Feb ’03, gold in India was below legal import point for the last six weeks. World gold ran $50 above the point at which the Indians backed off. Duplicating this would project world gold above the highs seen during the long ’93 –’96 top, which would be quite notable technically.

HSBC remarks:


local consumers are becoming increasingly used to the higher level of prices, with dips down to USD380/oz level likely to see a marked increase in offtake. Last month gold prices would have been required to fall to USD370/oz to trigger an increase in physical demand."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"…anecdotal evidence from the sub-continent suggests

local …

a comment repeated almost word for word by Standard London. Since both these outfits do deal extensively with Eastern consumers – unlike some more prominent names – this is an observation worth bearing in mind.

Once again, despite some assertions to the contrary, TOCOM furnishes no evidence of significant Japanese participation in gold. Volume fell 38% to equal 15,213 Comex lots, with the active contract rising 2 yen. World gold had edged up 40c above NY at the close. Open interest did rise, but only by the equivalent of 516 Comex contracts. Of course, this also means that TOCOM participation by western funds has yet to be seen. (NY yesterday traded 46,012 lots, with open interest adding 7,881 –quite a lot.)

Despite recurrent bouts of resolute selling – "from overseas "sources" according to ScotiaMocatta, probably code for Central Banks – gold has closed at a new high for the year. As the NY Comex data shows, this has been in the teeth of some serious selling. With the shares (at 1-40 PM!) seeming to confirm this move, the Bears need to produce something special.

In the meantime, the recent SF Fed paper ruminating on the possibilities of Fed management of the stock market gives some food for thought.

See:

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2003/el20…

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Derivatives growth continues to grow dramatically:

OTC derivatives market grows to $170 trillion-BIS

Reuters, 11.12.03, 3:59 AM ET

LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market expanded by 20 percent in the first half of 2003 as interest rate swap contracts continued robust growth, data from the Bank for International Settlements showed.

In figures released on Wednesday, the Basel-based BIS said the OTC foreign exchange market resumed growth after a stable second half of 2002 with euro/dollar contracts surging considerably as the euro appreciated over the period.

The BIS, a forum for central banks, said the total estimated…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Wie es zur Zeit scheint, geht es weiter nach oben heute!

[valueinvestor]

Wenn wir heute mit 395$ aus London rausgehen, kann ich mich mit der 6$ Regel von NY gut anfreunden.

[Glück]

@ThaiGuru

danke für #7368 !!!!!

Gruss

Glück

[valueinvestor]

ne richtige Achterbahn heute...

[superman6]

Falls jetzt bald der Südafrikanische Rand erneut
abgewertet werden sollte, dann dürften Durban
einen Satz machen.

Auf Avgold ebenfalls acht geben.

[sternenstaub]

@valueinvestor

Was für eine 6$ Regel?

[silverpwd]

#superman6



Ich sehe gerade heute wieder einen starken Rand, der wieder zum Dollar ein neues mittelfr. Hoch bildet...
Was bedeutet `erneut abgewertet` ? Schön wärs !

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn ich mir den 3 Monats Dollar Chart so anschaue, finde ich das Verhalten der Silber und Goldpreise doch etwas ungewöhnlich.

Vermutlich durfte heute noch nicht sein, was morgen sein wir…

[ThaiGuru]

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 4.4…

[valueinvestor]

Die 6 $ Regel besagt, daß Gold in NY nur um 6 $ pro Tag steigen darf, so war es zumindest in den letzten Wochen. Sobald gold drüberkam, wurde sofort massiv verkauft.

[ulfur]

6$ jeden Tag wäre okay.

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Neben der 6 Dollar Goldpreis Manipulations-Regel, gibt es noch viele weitere Regeln. Eine dieser "Regeln" ist, dass immer wenn die Leasing Rates (Zinssätze für Gold und Silber Mieten) stark angestiegen sind, diese Edlmetalle jeweils gewaltig eins aufs Dach gekriegt haben, und jeweil preislich stark gedrückt wurden.

Kann jederman selber leicht nachprüfen anhand der Datumsangaben in den Leasing Raten Charts, an denen die Preisspikes zu sehen sind. Daraufhin einfach mit den historischen Gold Preis Charts Daten vergleichen.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/

Diese Regel weiter aufrecht zu erhalten, scheint dem Gold Ca…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[faszination]

Hallo ThaiGuru!

Wie stehts mit AGD-Mining? Hast du Informationen?
Schön, dass du wieder aktiv bist hier im Bord.

Liebe Grüsse!

[superman6]

Heute ist die 400 Dollar in greifbarer Nähe.

Auf Durban und AVgold achten.

[TFischer]

zu 7434

Diese Regel ist einfach zu interpretieren. Da wird massiv Gold geleast und danach gleich auf den Markt geworfen!

Motto: Nach uns die Sintflut.

Gruss

TFischer

[ThaiGuru]

@faszination

AGD Mining (Kürzel: *AGZ*) Führt gerade eine Kapitalerhöhung durch. Für 4 bestehende Aktien kann man 1 neue Aktie beziehen zum Preis von 0.004 australische Dollars. Heutiger Schlusskurs in Australien 0.006 Dollar.
Habe selbst vor diese Kapitalerhöhung mitzutragen.

http://www.agdmining.com.au/images/prospectus.31.10.03.pdf

AGD Mining ist eine von nur noch 2 Minen in meinem Depot, die noch in der Verlustzone stehen, oder anders gesagt, heute billiger zu haben sind, als ich sie selbst (Im Schnitt bei 0.008) gekauft habe. Doch das macht mir keine sorgen. Bei "STERLING MINING *SRLM*" z.Bsp. musste ich über ganze 2 Jahre in der Verlustzone warten, bis SRLM jetzt plötzlich in den letzten 4 Monaten von 0.25 US Dollar auf ca. 7.20 pro Aktie gestiegen ist, was 2880% Gewinn entspricht. Wie Du siehst kann sich manchmal das Warten bezahlt machen.

Bei AGD Mining glaube ich ebenfalls an einen zukünftigen markanten Preisanstieg, sobald die geplanten Schritte der AGD Mining alle verwirklicht sind. Und AGD in Produktion gehen kann.



Es ist unter anderem auch nach der jetzigen Kapitalerhöhung geplant einen Reverssplit 60:1 durchzuführen. Das Gold haben sie nachweislich im Boden, nur fehlt der AGD Mining noch das Geld um es fördern zu können. Doch je höher die Goldpreise steigen, umso wahrscheinlicher wird es für AGD Mining, dass sie die Finanzierung hinkriegen. Weitere Kapitalerhöhungen sind jedoch dafür nicht auszuschliessen.

Für neue Gold Minen/Explorer unerfahrene Anleger im Thread:

AGD Mining stellt nach wie vor ein Risikoinvestment dar, mit…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Auf einen neuen Versuch!

[Leon der Profi]

So, jetzt wird`s langsam spannend

[ThaiGuru]

November 13 - Gold $393.80 down 40 cents - Silver $5.26 down 6 cents

Gold Cartel Selling Prevents Gold From Taking Out $400

"For three hundred years our history has been marked by the … - 1896, William Graham Sumner

Tis going to be wild from here on in – at least much of the time. Gold was all over the place today. Early on it roared ahead in stellar follow-through fashion after yesterday’s breakout, making it all the way up to $397.80. An increasingly desperate Gold Cartel pulled out all the stops to prevent gold from taking out $400. The fact that the dollar was very weak (breaking 92), the stock market was sinking after Wal-Mart disappointed, and the CRB was continuing its bull run, meant nothing. It doesn’t when you are dealing with a bunch of corrupt and deceitful bankers who have backed themselves into a corner.

The cabal and friends bombed gold on every rally.

Unfortunately for them, large specs and other powerful buying interests are taking them on. The gold open interest soared to 287,001, up a stunning 16,106 contracts. That huge increase gives you an idea of how much gold The Gold Cartel needed to throw at the market yesterday to prevent $400 from being breached. The open interest should have increased again today. By the time all is said and done, it could take out 400,000. Why not? The financial markets open interest has increased substantially over the years. Now that gold is in a major bull market, its open interest should grow significantly too.

Gold makes a 7 ½ year high and The Café Sentiment Indicator …

The silver open interest rose sharply too, jumping 12,360 contracts to 104,240. That is still 10,000 less than the previous time it traded at these levels this year. Still waiting for the day when silver goes nuts to the upside.

AM Gold Fix: $395.50 PM Gold Fix $395.40

The CRB keeps on keepin’ on, finishing at 254.91, up a steep 1.78. The grains, the softs (coffee, cocoa, sugar) and cotton were all higher. But, there is no inflation!

CRB:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/14

The euro rose .99 to 117.20. The dollar was clocked; down .68 to 91.74. I believe that is a new low close for the dollar. The effect on gold? A big zilch!

A highly regarded money manager tells me that pension and endowment funds are beginning to look into and add gold to their portfolios.


*Low US interest rates

*Continued comments by Fed officials they are going to keep interest rates low, seemingly to ignore real US inflation

*Negative interest rates, meaning inflation is running higher than the Fed Funds rate - this situation is worsening due to all the Fed pumping and their liquidity maneuvers

*A stellar physical gold market – investment demand is on the increase

*Gold demand exceeds mine and scrap supply by about 1400 tonnes per year and the deficit is going up

*Mine supply is going lower in the years to come no matter what the gold price does due to producer high grading in years past and lack of exploration finds due to the low gold prices over the past 7 years

*A weakening dollar

*Increasing skepticism over a US Administration that seems out of control over Iraq and government spending

*And most important of all, The Gold Cartel is gradually running out of enough physical gold to suppress the gold price like that have done since the mid-90’s.

*Via GATA’s efforts, The Gold Cartel has been exposed. Many shrewd investors around the world have found out the secret the IMF and the rest of the cabal wanted hushed up: half the central bank gold is GONE

*The central bank overhang will be a thing of the past soon – they could even become net buyers at some point" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The Gold Cartel has to be in panic mode. If gold takes out $…

Only a matter of time now before the magic $400 number becom…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, November 13, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.69, PM $2.83, with world gold at $393.50 and $395. Somewhat below legal import point. Today’s $US prices were of course the highest India has seen since ’96: world gold in rupees was slightly higher in early February. The rupee weakened for a fourth straight day this morning as the Indian Government took measures to prevent currency appreciation harming domestic industry: their effect is unlikely to be more than a temporary smoothing of the rupee’s gold-acquisition-facilitating rise.

There was a surge of activity on TOCOM; UBS says, plausibly:

"While gold saw some Tocom GP selling pressure, decent OTC b…

Volume tripled (up 210%) to the equivalent of 47,144 Comex lots and the active contract closed up 15 yen; but world gold had slipped 75c from NY and open interest dropped the equivalent of 1,445 Comex: there is no sign Japan itself is interested in gold at present: hardly surprising given the behavior of the yen. (NY yesterday traded a heavy 89,242 contracts. Open interest rose by a huge 16,108 lots.)

The dealer-commentators are all tensely aware that an important threshold is being encroached upon. Quite apart from the drama of $400, and the chart implications of any advance, they are acutely (in some cases, probably painfully aware) alert to the unusual option situation. As Refco Research (which sold half a very profitable long in its model portfolio this morning) politely suggests:

"December gold looks to work its way higher in the face of t…

The heavy volume yesterday (and the immense increase in open interest ) and today (a huge 38,000 contracts estimated by 11 am) lend some credence to this comment. Or at least, it is clear that something is being furiously defended by somebody.

At such a moment, it is as well to refresh long term perspective. The (ultra long term) chartist Martin Pring http://www.pring.com

(who in essence is not planning to wake up on gold unless it clears the $400-$410 range) presents a valuable 30 year chart in his current Monthly, and points out that from a momentum-measure point of view:

"while the price is overextended compared to recent action, it is not in an historical context. If this is the beginning of a secular bull market, as we believe, then it would not be unreasonable to expect a 1987, or even a 1983 type reading"

A number of significant observers, such as David Malpas of Bear Stearns, and also Bridgewater Associates in their "Daily Observations" have begun sensing an inflation watershed has been crossed, as signaled by the behavior of the TIPS. This case is summarized this morning by my brother on CBSMarketWatch:

see:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8545BC4B%2…

Lastly, there has been a sudden flurry of references to the dollar being influenced by "geopolitical" considerations. Sadly, Iraq is not going away soon.

JB

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The Bush administration says that next years federal budget deficit will be $500 billion, better known at half a trillion dollars. Then add the $87 billion that Congress just OK`d to partly cover the cost of Afghanistan and Iraq. OK, that puts the deficit a $587 billion. But this doesn`t count the $217 billion that the government is borrowing from the Social Security trust. That takes the deficit to $804 billion. Then there`s the added cost of the tax cuts, prescription drugs and other special expenses and items, and you`re talking about an actual deficit of probably over $1 trillion dollars.

A lot of that mind-blowing deficit will be "financed" by fia…

The mind turns to real money -- gold. All the gold mined in the history of the world amounts to about $1.4 trillion. And here`s the US government spending an amount equal to 70% of that gold just the single year 2004. And then we have the years 2005 and 2006 to worry about.

How wild can it get? In the next few years I believe we are … "You better own some gold."…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Magor]

Nanü, heut keiner Zuhause hier?
Dabei gibt es gute Neuigkeiten!
Die Bodenbildung beim allfälligen Durchatmen findet bei Silber nunmehr über 5.20 statt!



was die 50 % Reaktion auf den steilen Anstieg seit dem 12.11. nunmehr als erledigt betrachten lässt!

Ebenso bei Gold, was über 390 sich wieder berappeln konnte!



und, mein persönlicher "Glücksbringer",
Thai, was sagste zu meinen Clifton Mining?



ist das nicht ein Bild für die Götter? Selbst heute ein Plus von guten 15 % : - ))

Die in DROOY verlagerten Teile lassen dagegen (noch) etwas zu wünschen übrig, jedoch,
wenn die 400 spätestens am Freitag geknackt sind,
ja mei, dann aber geht auch damit ab die Post !!!

Grüße
Magor

[Kostolany4]

Hochinteressant ist die heutige Kolumne von Jim Puplova
über Inflation und die amerikanische Geldpolitik. Kurz
gefaßt wird die Inflation erst langsam, dann immer
schneller steigen, was den Wert der Rohstoffe, insbes.
Gold hochschnellen läßt.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/archive/2003/1117.htm

[ulfur]

Angebot und Nachfrage für Platin, Palladium und Rhodium von Johnson Matthey
Angebotsüberschuß bei Palladium scheint sich gegenüber 2002 ausgeweitet zu haben.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/031118/minerals_platinum_matthey_tab…

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Ich beneide Dich sehr um Deine Clifton Mining!

Man kann aber leider nicht alles haben.

Bin mit meiner SAMEX Mining einer GATA Empfehlung auch überaus zufrieden.

Die letzten 3 Monate!



Und heute noch einen oben drauf!

[ThaiGuru]

Es tut sich gerade was in der Goldküche!

Die Einjahresmieten für Gold steigen gerade sprunghaft an.

[ThaiGuru]

Als der Dollarkurs vor 2 Tagen um 0.6 Zähler gestiegen ist (…

[silverpwd]

In der Tat sind die Entwicklungen der letzten Tage nicht normal.

[ThaiGuru]

Todesstoss für das Gold Kartel?



http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/031118/16/3fzaq.html

Tuesday November 18, 4:18 PM

Bank of China Opens Gold Trade to Individuals

SHANGHAI, Nov 18 Asia Pulse - The Bank of China (BOC), one of the four big state banks of China, today opened gold trade services to Chinese individuals here.

Individual investors can now trade the precious metal at 95 business outlets of the BOC Shanghai Branch, or dial 95566 to make transactions or on-line trading at http://www.sh.bank-of-china.com.

To encourage more individuals to participate in the gold tra…

Shanghai was a trading center for gold in the 1930s and 1940s. China set up a gold exchange in the city one year ago, ending more than 50 years of government monopoly over the gold market in China.

Gu Wenshuo, an official with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the only gold transaction market in China, said opening of the gold market would boost consumption of gold and private investment in China.

Against the backdrop of gloomy stock and securities markets,…

The other three state banks, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Construction Bank of China and the Agricultural Bank of China have stepped up their preparations for launching gold trading.

Last year, the three banks launched eight new gold services, including retail sales of gold.

(XIC)

[ThaiGuru]

November 17 - Gold $390.80 down $6.50 - Silver $5.22 down 17 cents

If There Ever Was A Day

Samuel Adams advised: "It does not take a majority to prevail .... but rather an i…

If there ever was a day for gold to explode, it was today. Which is, of course, the very reason The Gold Cartel smashed it lower.

The Nikkei astonished by dropping 380 lower to 9786. It is the second 300+ point break in two weeks. The situation in Iraq is a disaster with more soldiers killed this past Saturday than on any other day in the war. The euro was higher this morning and European stocks were all under pressure. If gold were freely traded, this would be a scenario that would have sent gold scurrying above $400. However with The Gold Cartel and friends short massive amounts of December options above $400, the crooks decided there was no way they were going to allow the longs to make money fairly on their reasonable speculations.

The tone for today’s Comex annihilation was set last evening. Two Café members saw the early action this way:

Gold touched 399.90 and the Euro was bid sharply higher.
Euro sinks, yen gets clobbered by BOJ, Aussie drops hard, and Cando down. Euro still up slightly - gold bopped back down to steady. this is going to be the big one this week and these guys know it Bill. We are taking out $400 within the next couple of days.

Dan

Bill,

Last night I was watching the Comex Access price action. Aft…

JC

After all these years, it is sickening to watch these bums take gold down like this in a concerted fashion. What an outrage it is for Treasury Secretary Snow to go around the world and berate the Chinese for "manipulating" their currency. At the same time the US is "rigging" the gold price to suit its own needs, to the detriment of all the poor sub-Saharan gold producing countries, much less law abiding world gold investors. The average American has no clue why we are hated around the world. This is why: we speak with forked tongue. We preach one thing and do another. This hypocrisy is noted by citizens all over the globe. Americans don’t hear about it much because the US press won’t report it.

What is important to note is that it is not the average American these people hate. It is The Gold Cartel. It is Wall Street, the bullion banks and the US Government.

Americans are at least getting a whiff of what really goes on in Wall Street and Washington with the mutual fund and brokerage house scandals. We are talking about one big sewer. From Enron to Putnam, has the situation improved over the past two years? Heck no, it seems to be getting worse - from the obscene $188 million the NYSE chairman Dick Grasso made to the slap on the wrist Putnam just received from the wimpish SEC. New York Attorney General Elliott Spitzer is outraged as all US citizens should be.

America has lost its way. We are fighting a war with brave soldiers dying for reasons that were proved invalid. When you discuss markets, you have to deal with Iraq these days because it is blowing up. It is going to have a profoundly negative effect on US financial markets in the months ahead. We asked other nations to help fund the war and send in troops. They answer back by asking if we are nuts. Now we are instructing the Iraqis to get their new government cooking by summer when they can’t even get council members to attend meetings. It reminds me of the Arab gatherings in Lawrence of Arabia. We are now supposedly fighting for democracy in the Middle East. Does that mean the Shia’s rule because they are the majority? Are we for another Muslim-run state? What about democracy in Egypt, Pakistan, Jordon, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia?

The average American is not without blame, however. There isn’t a CEO in the world who would have been allowed to retain his job if he were caught doing what Bill Clinton did in the oval office with Ms. Lewinsky. Not one! Yet, he was allowed to stay in office because the economy and stock market were rolling along – even if it were a contrived bubble which would not last. Americans didn’t want to "rock their financial boat."

There has been only a modicum of outrage about the Wall Street financial market scandals these past MANY months. That’s because the stock market has been roaring ahead. Same reason Clinton was allowed to stay in office. Right or wrong is not the issue the way it used to be. It’s about everyone’s investments. It’s going to take a stock market collapse for serious investor outrage to emerge – a collapse for there to be any serious changes in the way Wall Street conducts its business. Only when the public loses their hard-earned money will they be outraged. Pretty sad. Spitzer will have all sorts of company. By then it will be too late for US investors.

Now that I got that off my chest, back to gold.

The more bullish the gold scenario is, the greater the effor…

While there is a $6 rule on the upside, no such thing on the…

The good news was the way gold stormed back, climbing almost $6 off its lows. That is not a sign of a market in trouble, but a market that was forced lower. Sort of like trying to suppress a beach ball below the water. Time and time again Gold Cartel forces have done all they could the past many months to force gold down and it hasn’t worked. The physical market is just too strong.

On that note I was informed this afternoon The Stalker HAS NOT completed his $1.8 billion bullion order yet. Perhaps it was The Stalker who drove gold up sharply off its lows?

We should see big open interest liquidation after today’s killing. Friday it rose 5954 contracts to 293,830, almost the same number the last time the cabal took gold sharply lower.

Silver was hit for 28 cents at one point. The silver open interest rose 4631 contracts on Friday to 111,762. Of note is the December contract rose a surprising 2993 contracts with only a little more than a week to go before it goes into first notice day. Is someone planning on taking delivery of large amounts of silver? Normally new buyers would go after the March silver contract, especially with such a small contango.

The dollar only rose .07 to 91.67, while the euro only dropped .09 to 115.50.

ONCE AGAIN we see how the gold market is mostly about a surg…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ulfur]

REKORDSTAND

Euro steigt auf Allzeithoch

Der Euro hat im US-Devisenhandel am Dienstag kurzzeitig seine alte Rekordmarke von 1,1932 Dollar durchbrochen. Nach Einschätzung von Experten könnte er noch weiter steigen.

Frankfurt am Main - Nach Angaben von Händlern wurde die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung (Chart) am Mittag in New York mit Kursen um bis zu 1,1951 Dollar gehandelt. Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hatte den Referenzkurs am Mittag noch auf 1,1778 (Montag: 1,1802) Dollar festgesetzt. Der Dollar kostete damit 0,8490 (0,8473) Euro.

Schon am Nachmittag hatte der Euro die Marke von 1,1850 Dollar in einem kräftigen Sprung überwunden und in wenigen Stunden um rund einen Cent zugelegt. "Nun spricht einiges für einen weiteren Kursanstieg des Euro", sagte Gregor Beckmann, Devisenexperte bei HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt. Sollte der Euro auch sein bisheriges Rekordhoch hinter sich lassen, sei erst wieder bei 1,2315 Dollar der nächste Haltepunkt auszumachen. Eine fundamentale Erklärung für den deutlichen Kursanstieg des Euro gebe es allerdings nicht.

Auch ein Händler aus Frankfurt beurteilt den Kursanstieg als "rein technisch bedingt". Weder die Verbraucherpreise aus den USA noch aus der Eurozone haben Beckmann zufolge das grundlegende Bild der Wirtschaftsentwicklung erschüttert. Die Preisentwicklung liege sowohl in der Eurozone als auch in den USA weitgehend im Rahmen der Erwartungen und spreche nicht für eine rasche Zinserhöhung.

Zu anderen wichtigen Währungen legte die EZB die Referenzkurse für einen Euro auf 0,69705 (0,69830) britische Pfund, 128,17 (128,56) japanische Yen und 1,5568 (1,5580) Schweizer Franken fest. Die Feinunze Gold wurde in London mit 393,90 (393,70) Dollar notiert.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,274528,00.html

Der Spiegel gibt im obigen Artikel auch den Goldpreis an. Es scheint mir, als ob Gold auch immer mehr ins Blickfeld der Wirtschaftspresse gerät. Gold wird zusammen mit anderen Währungen zur Bestimmung des Dollarwertes herangezogen. Gold wird also auch von der meinungsbildenden Presse durchaus nicht als Commodity, sondern als Geld angesehen.