ELAN - 1.000 % for the LONG-time - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 40)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.147 von Poppholz am 17.06.08 14:04:12

Ach Jungs....ich freu mich SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! 29,40$

[Holgus]

AP
Wyeth Alzheimer's drug fails to meet goal in trial
Tuesday June 17, 8:08 am ET

Wyeth and Elan Alzheimer's drug fails goal in trial, but shows impact in subgroup

MADISON, N.J. (AP) -- Wyeth and Elan Corp. said Tuesday a mid-stage study for a drug to treat Alzheimer's disease did not meet its goal.

According to the drug makers, bapineuzumab's ability to improve Alzheimer's symptoms was not significantly different from those on placebo.


Hört sich irgendwie nich so gut an, oder ? Hat man da nicht anderes erwartet ?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Die non - APOE Carrier sind 40-70% der ALZ-Patienten;Cyberhexe schrieb es seien 60%.....und bei der anderen Gruppe glaubt man die Signifikanz im grössreren Trial nachweisen zu können weil die Tendenzen auch dort positiv sind.....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.288 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.06.08 14:21:20

jetzt sind auch die Kursdrücker wieder da.

(hatte mir schon Sorgen gemacht)

Scheint aber ein hartes Stück Arbeit zu sein den Kurs unten zu halten.

Entweder die ziehen Ihre Angebote selbst sofort wieder raus oder jemand sammelt dankbar ein.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.343 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.06.08 14:27:10

Danke Birgit.

Da schießen dann im Moment wilde Spekulationen ins Kraut und im Grunde weiß keiner, was wirklich Sache ist.

Bleibt also nur abwarten ... und darin sind wir ja geübt

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.377 von Poppholz am 17.06.08 14:29:58

Kurs war eben auf $28,30 runter jetzt aber schon wieder auf $29,80 hoch.

Bin auf 15:30 Uhr gespannt, wenn die "Breite Masse" kaufen kann.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.306 von Holgus am 17.06.08 14:23:32

Die Schlagzeile ist längst überholt--sie haben es erst nicht verstanden.----Du solltest wieder Johanniskraut einwerfen....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.408 von Poppholz am 17.06.08 14:32:39

... wenn die "Breite Masse" kaufen kann

Wenn ich jetzt noch Johannis sein Kraut einwerfe, bin ich auch bis spätestens 15:30 breit.
Hab allerdings keine Kohle mehr zum Einkaufen, brauch ich alles für Edeka heute Abend.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.628 von Holgus am 17.06.08 14:54:01

---aber nur gesundes Zeug kaufen bei Edeka....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.388 von Holgus am 17.06.08 14:30:56

ach Holgus,

Deine optimistische Art hat mir richtig gefehlt.

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.316.657 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.06.08 14:57:44

... aber nur gesundes Zeug kaufen bei Edeka


Ja klar ... Mars, Snickers, Duplo, Popel ... und 'n Apfel.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

CNBC's Bob Pisani just called this "an important breakthrough"!!!!

Für Holgus:Salat,Paprika,Fenchel---das REICHT!

[Poppholz]

zum schauen

(ansonsten kommt man mit dem Posten der Kurse ja gar nicht hinterher)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.317.023 von Poppholz am 17.06.08 15:35:19

man bin ich froh, dass ich nicht short bin.

Was ist eigentlich mit den ganzen Leuten, die aufgrund der guten Nachrichten short gegangen sind, da ja früher bei guten Nachrichten der Kurs immer runter gegangen ist?

spannend, spannend, spannend

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

29 Dollar wieder....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.317.038 von Poppholz am 17.06.08 15:37:23

....die warten auf ihre Chance----Kurs geht grad mal runter....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.317.163 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.06.08 15:50:01

hat sich das Bild also doch wiederholt.

SELL ON GOOD NEWS.

Zu Börsenstart verkaufen und anschließend wieder einkaufen.

(Börse ist so einfach)

[Poppholz]

um 15:30 Uhr 100.000 zu $ 29,00 leer verkauft und um 16:00 Uhr mit 100.000 Stück zu $ 28,00 wieder glatt gezogen.

Die Mengen sind gelaufen.

Halbe Stunde "Arbeit und 100.000,- US-Dollar eingesackt.

(nicht schlecht, nicht schlecht)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 241966 6/17/2008 10:23:08 AM
By: Creedster_99

Today's news is EXCELLENT!

Don't let the funny trading get to you!


Let's get this straight....you have a drug that is STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANTLY better than Aricept in almost EVERY MEASURE...There are essentially NO SAFETY CONCERNS

Do you think PFE, MRK, Novartis, JNJ might be interested in making an offer for Elan?

Kelly's biggest problem going forward is to stay independent.

Today's news could hardly have been better....in fact, I would call it CRYSTAL CLEAR!!!!!!

[Poppholz]

pünktlich um 11:00 Uhr steigen wir wieder.

(das ist doch alles ein abgesprochenes Spiel)

[Holgus]

Und es tritt anscheinend genau das ein, was ich Anfang des Jahres
befürchtet habe.

Die News sind draußen, sie sind gut, und Elan macht grad mal einen Sprung von 1-2 Dollar ... wenn überhaupt.

Noch nicht einmal für die 30igDollarMarke hat es gereicht
(die sollten wir eigentlich schon bei der Chrowns-Zulassung geknackt haben).

Aus der Traum von 40ig ... 50ig ... 60ig Dollar bei guten News.
Die Marken wird Elan erst erreichen, wenn sie dementsprechend
auch das Geld verdienen. Und da das ja bekanntermaßen erst ab
2010 losgeht, kann man jetzt wohl endgültig Schlüsse ziehn.

Ich für meinen Teil werde es mir noch zwei Tage ansehn und dann
die nötigen Entscheidungen treffen, auch wenn Ihr mich tausendmal
"Pessimist" nennt (Realist mit aufgegebenen Träumen wär wohl angebrachter).

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 242182 6/17/2008 12:40:43 PM
By: Whosonfirst

Re: Nice phase 2 results,,,,Biggest drug ever?

a subpopulation that is = to 40 -70% of the total so 26 million ww with AZ, say 15 million in US, Europe and other countries with insurance x 50% = 7.5 million (and growing) x 75% penetration = 5.6 million people x $3k per year = $16.8B /2 = $8.4B to our baby!


No worries be happy !

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 242193 6/17/2008 12:47:09 PM
By: kcchris

What does stat sig mean?

What people need to remember is that stat sig in non APOE means that we have a drug that works for sure in 2 - 3.5 million people in the US today. Double that WW. That assumes that we don't get stat sig in the APOE group for phase 3. I believe we will likely get stat sig in phase 3.

So lets see we have likely 5 million potential patients as we sit today and the the likelihood of Phase 3 success is 90% or greater in that non APOE group.

I can't imagine many of those patients not wanting the drug. But lets assume we only get 2 million of those patients at $5,000 a year. That is revenues of $10 billion a year.

I would say today's news is pretty darn good.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.319.054 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.06.08 19:26:05

Goodbody Stockbrokers recently forecast that the first two drugs could account for half of what it predicts will be a $10 billion drug market within the next 10 years. It is currently worth $3 billion.

Ekman is even more bullish. “A $10 billion market? That's conservative. I think the companies who are out first with a disease-modifying drug (for Alzheimer’s) will have an outstanding opportunity.

We are very well positioned to become that first company.”



From The Sunday Times
March 5, 2006


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article737461…

[bernie55]

Caris and Company are actually reducing their price target on this excellent PII data release.


From $18 (already a joke) to $15 (absolutely laughable) .

[bernie55]

Wyeth Shares Rises on Promising Study of Alzheimer’s Drug


Article Tools Sponsored By
By STEPHANIE SAUL
Published: June 18, 2008

The drug maker Wyeth said Tuesday that an investigational product for treating Alzheimer’s showed promise in an intermediate clinical study.

The news of an advance in Wyeth’s program to develop Alzheimer’s treatments sent shares of the company up 5.04 percent, or $2.17, to $45.25, at midday.

The product, called bapineuzumab, is one of 23 different avenues Wyeth is exploring under the company’s so-called “war on Alzheimer’s.”

The study data will not be fully disclosed until next month, but the company said Tuesday in a release that bapineuzumab improved cognitive functioning in a subset of patients, those who did not carry a genetic variation called ApoE4. Non-carriers make up 40 to 70 percent of Alzheimer’s patients.

The results were important because on a test of cognitive functioning in Alzheimer’s patients, the mean score decline over 18 months is 6.5 points. In the 18-month study of bapineuzumab, the patients negative for ApoE4 declined 2 to 2.5 points, or 4 points better, according to Ian Sanderson, senior research analyst for Cowen & Company.

“Anything north of a 2 point spread would be considered clinically significant,” Mr. Sanderson said.

In a release, Wyeth said that MRI results of those same patients showed less loss of brain volume among treated patients compared with those given a placebo.

Wyeth’s chief executive, Bernard J. Poussot, said the company was “encouraged” by the findings.

The results were considered positive despite the fact that the study, which involved 240 patients with Alzheimer’s, did not meet its primary endpoints. That was because the drug did not appear to have the same effect on patients carrying the ApoE4 gene.

Wyeth and its partner in the project, the Elan Corporation, had already announced last year that they had moved to a Phase 3 study of the product based on an interim look at the results announced Tuesday. The Phase 3, which began enrolling patients in December, will involve 4,100 Alzheimer’s patients at 350 study sites.

Bapineuzumab is considered the most promising of 23 Alzheimer’s products that Wyeth has in various ages of development and discovery. If bapineuzumab were to be approved, it could represent a significant advance over current Alzheimer’s treatments, which can temporarily improve symptoms, but do not attack the underlying disease process. Some analysts have said it could become a $13 billion product.

In a note to investors on Tuesday, Dr. Tim Anderson, a pharmaceutical analyst for Sanford C. Bernstein & Company, gave bapineuzumab a 30 percent chance of reaching the market but he said Wyeth also needed to develop other compounds to make up from patent expirations........und das nach den heutigen Ergebnissen !!!!......unbegreiflich...
Bapineuzumab is based on the theory that Alzheimer’s brain plaque is caused by a protein called beta amyloid that develops when something goes awry in the breakdown of a substance in the brain called amyloid precursor protein, or A.P.P.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/business/18drug.html?_r=2&…

[Cyberhexe]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.317.924 von Holgus am 17.06.08 17:09:50

...die Ergebnisse sind besser als erwartet, statistische Signifikanz, wenn auch nur in der Untergruppe der Nichtträger des Allels Apoe4, konnte man nämlich in Anbetracht der Stufdiengrösse nicht erwarten. Dass diese dennoch erreicht wurde, ist m.E. überwältigend und der letzte Beweis dafür, dass Bapineuzumab wirkt.
Jedoch konnte man trotzdem nicht erwarten, dass sich der Kurs an einem Tag verdoppelt, sprich die Marktkapitalisierung um weitere 10 Milliarden USD zulegt. Dies ist einfach nicht realistisch, da immer noch einiges schief gehen kann bis der Wirkstoff dann wirklich am Markt platziert ist. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Marktzulassung ist mit dem heutigen Ergebnis allerdings um einiges gestiegen, und verspricht auf die kommenden Monate/Jahre eine überaus attraktive Kursphantasie. Kurzfristige Verdoppelungen sind jedoch bei Unternehmen mit einer Marktkapitalisierung jenseits von 10 Milliarden USD die ganz ganz grosse Ausnahme. Dies ist eher bei kleineren Unternehmen möglich, wenn diese einen Wirkstoff durch die Klinik an den Markt bringen (vielleicht Dendreon mit Provenge in 2009). Allerdings ist bei diesen kleinen Unternehmen das Risiko nun ungleich grösser. All jene, die einer Kursverdoppelung/-verdreifachung etwas Zeit geben, dürften jedoch nun bei Elan sehr gut aufgehoben sein.

ch

[bernie55]

..so jetzt mal ein bisschen erholen von den guten News....

..jetzt mal eine Runde EM schauen......

....schöne Grüße....bis denn

bernie55

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.318.738 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 17.06.08 18:44:08

Wenn so weiter geht, sehen wir bald 30er

[bernie55]

Hope And Doubt For Alzheimer's

Matthew Herper and Robert Langreth 06.17.08, 2:00 PM ET


A promising new treatment for Alzheimer's disease helped some patients but may have harmed others, according to a preliminary study of 240 patients released today by the drug's makers.

Still, Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) of Dublin, Ireland, and Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) of Madison, N.J., said they were encouraged by the results, and the stock prices of both companies' shares rose in early trading. The companies have already started studies in thousands of people in order to get the drug approved, but those will take at least two years.

Bapineuzumab is one of the most-watched experimental treatments among drug and biotech investors. It was designed to attack and remove what some researchers believe is a root cause of Alzheimer's, the tell-tale amyloid plaques that build up in patients' brains. If it works, sales could reach $5 billion a year, according to Wall Street forecasts. But some scientists say bapineuzumab is based on a flawed conception of what causes Alzheimer's, making its chances of working far from assured.

The new results shed only a little light on the debate. According to a press release, the study failed to meet its pre-stated goal of helping patients do better on any of several questionnaires and tests designed to measure Alzheimer's severity.

But a subset of patients who did not have a genetic variant called APOE4, showed statistically significant improvements across four different tests for Alzheimer's symptoms, Wyeth and Elan said, when compared to a control group of patients who did not get the drug. They also appear to have lost less brain volume, according to MRI scans.

Meanwhile, in patients who had the APOE4 gene variant, which increases the risk of developing Alzheimer's by as much as tenfold, the drug had little benefit and increased risk of brain swelling due to leaky blood vessels, called vasogenic edema. Roughly half of Alzheimer's patients have the APOE4 gene variant.

"In my view, these results are very, very slightly hopeful, but not more than this," says John Hardy, a University College, London, neuroscientist and geneticist who was among the first to point to a link between amyloid, the protein bapineuzumab attacks, and Alzheimer's. He says because the companies didn't decide to divide patients into those with and without APOE until after the study finished, there is a meaningful risk that the positive results are due solely to chance.

Other researchers are more optimistic. "This is exactly what you would want to see to justify going to a big phase III program," says Steven Ferris, director of the NYU Langone Alzheimer's Disease Center and a paid adviser to Elan. "These are pretty good results." He noted that those without APOE4 also showed less brain shrinkage on MRI scans as well as on cognitive tests. That, he says, is exactly what would be needed for the drug to be approved by the Food and Drug Administration as a disease-modifying agent, not just a treatment of symptoms.

Lon S. Schneider, a psychiatrist and Alzheimer's disease expert at the University of Southern California Keck School of Medicine, adds: "I don't think this is particularly earth shaking. The basic thing they are saying is we looked at our data and it continues to give us faith to go ahead."

The news release is also notable for what it does not include. It doesn't say how many patients were in the subset that appeared to benefit or what the magnitude of the benefit was. The news release also does not reveal whether higher doses of the drug showed more or less of an effect than lower doses. The news release also does not say how many different subsets of patients were analyzed, which is particularly important because the more subsets you analyze, the more you are likely to have a positive result merely by chance.

The big question behind bapineuzumab is whether it is targeting a cause of Alzheimer's or a symptom. The dominant explanation of Alzheimer's disease contends that the massive brain cell death is due to the buildup of plaques containing a protein called beta amyloid built up in the brain. Bapineuzumab is an antibody that attacks beta amyloid. Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY - news - people ) and Pfizer (nyse: PFE - news - people ) are among numerous other companies testing similar approaches.

One big mystery is why hitting amyloid with a drug would benefit people without the APOE4 gene but not those with it. There are few clinical differences, experts say, between those with APOE4 and those without it once they develop the disease.

That difference is "unexpected but not inexplicable," says Zaven Khachaturian, president of Keep Memory Alive in Las Vegas and former head of Alzheimer's research at the National Institutes of Health. Alzheimer's is probably caused by a complex interaction of many genes, and it is possible those with the APOE4 gene are less able to repair their injured brains. These patients tend to have more amyloid built up in their blood vessels, not just in their brains.

For investors > , the huge potential of bapineuzumab and the very real risks create a very big betting opportunity. Wall Street analysts differ on the chances that the drug eventually proves effective and is approved. Timothy Anderson at Sanford C. Bernstein wrote in a note to investors that he models only a 30% chance of approval but still sees Wyeth as worth buying because of the valuation of the stock.

James Kelly, the pharmaceuticals analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that the results should slightly increase Wall Street's view of bapineuzumab's chances. However, he said, the new data should cool hopes that the drug could be approved in this mid-stage. Barbara Ryan at Deutsche Bank wrote that the results were "as good as could be expected at this time," and that shares will trade up for now. But she advises investors to be careful because of other disappointments that could hit the company.

The last experimental drug to generate sales forecasts as big as the ones analysts are ballparking for bapineuzumab was torcetrapib, a Pfizer pill designed to reduce heart attacks. Torcetrapib actually increased the death rate and was canned.

James Nicoll, a neuropathologist at the University of Southampton, performed autopsies on nine patients who received a plaque-removing vaccine Elan and Wyeth tried in an earlier trial. (Side effects torpedoed that approach.) He found that the vaccine patients had dramatic reductions in plaque compared to a control group. Yet eight of nine still developed end-stage dementia.

Nicoll called the news release this morning "tantalizing." However, he added: "There is quite a lot of information you would like to see that isn't there. If there is efficacy, it is not of a very large magnitude."


http://www.forbes.com/2008/06/17/alzheimers-pharmacuticals-b…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.319.512 von bernie55 am 17.06.08 20:25:29

30er ist nicht mehr weit

[Poppholz]

After Hour über $30,-

(schöner Chart und das bei guten News)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.317.924 von Holgus am 17.06.08 17:09:50

Die News sind draußen, sie sind gut, und Elan macht grad mal einen Sprung von 1-2 Dollar ... wenn überhaupt.

Noch nicht einmal für die 30igDollarMarke hat es gereicht



...das dürften dann morgen ca. 19,35 € sein...


After Hours
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[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.320.310 von bernie55 am 17.06.08 22:23:44

na geht doch

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.319.434 von Cyberhexe am 17.06.08 20:14:24

Danke Cyber für die ausführliche Erklärung, trägt natürlich einiges zum Verständniss bei.

Guts Nächtle alle zusammen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Hi Ihr Lieben!

Na,da freu ich mich aber...nach abendlichem "Röschendrehen" mit den Bauersfrauen der umliegenden Höfe für eine Silberhochzeit in der Nachbarschaft (gggggggggggggrrrrrrhhhhhhhhh:O) ein nettes Geschenk dieser Kurs...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.321.440 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 09:00:41

Mensch Birgit, da hast Du ja einen schönen Abend gehabt.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.321.461 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 09:03:52

....pass auf....

ELN msg # 242820 6/17/2008 10:24:26 PM
By: wwilson_2003

WOW!!!!!

FIRST AND FOREMOST HOW ABOUT THAT TIGER WOODS, HUH?

These results are great and kind of a tease, without the numbers. Questions to be answered, perhaps at ICAD, but it really shows that Phase 3 is a lock. Comments:

1. We knew that stat-sig wouldn't be easy, but the differences in carriers and non-carriers are highlights of the data they've released. A conclusion had been that since the carriers were given a higher power (more patients, God knows) in the phase 3, then the non-carriers were actually the best performers. That was the case, but the stark differences are, at first, pretty surprising. After thinking about it, though, or rather reading what nanga and shouda have thought about it, I've come to believe that the safety issue with the carriers has mucked up the data - drop outs, intent-to-treat methodology, and the bad effects/confusion noted in Phase 1, etc. Plus the cohort size reduction from the carrier/non-carrier subgrouping impacted those numbers. But the non-carriers still made it with the low numbers.

2. So we are not 100% clear on groupings and sizes (it appears to be 94 treated before subgrouping by APOE4 and before drop outs), how the drop-outs are actually handled, and how the 0.5 mg/kg carriers performed. We would all like to know and hope that we get a glimpse from ICAD.

3. Both cognition tests were stat-sig for non-carriers, so now Elan has a big decision to make - they must pick one and only one. Interesting decision. They will let the data guide them, and the carrier data will be considered, too. For function, neither group made it on DAD, but non-carriers made it on the other (sum of boxes?). So cognition performance (perhaps less subjective) came out a little better.

4. Brain volume results and preserved volume - just what they wanted to hear. The AD brain is estimated to have about 2 ml of plaque. AN-1792 caused the loss of 60 ml of gray matter volume over the first 12 months with very little - to no cog/function benefits. The picture might be a little more clear now. BAP is not a jack hammer.

5. I believe that BAP has its effect very quickly so you know the result in a short period of time. I beleive that we will see cohorts improving over baseline. You simply have to enroll enough patients to show significance in a short period. That, and keep the carriers in a separate trial. Someone call Elan and let them in on this.

6. I also believe that there is a very good chance that if the vasogenic edema is avoided, then a decent size cohort will do just fine. I'd be surprised if there is not a powerful effect in this case.

7. The possibility of an early filing from Phase 3 - at six or nine months, will now get sorted out with the FDA. If the results were unclear, for instance - not stat-sig on everything for the tiny Phase 2 cohort, then this early filing might not be expected. But it seems pretty clear, especially given the desperate need.

These were terrific results.

[Poppholz]

Bringt zur Zeit eine Menge Spass den Kurs zu beobachten.

Neues 5-Jahres-Hoch.

Bin gespannt wo die Reise diese Woche (und nächsten Monat; und nächstes Jahr) hingeht.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.321.491 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 09:07:13

...ich auch---und wann wir uns alle mal zum feiern treffen?????

[Poppholz]

dpa-afx
Aktien New York Schluss: Verluste wegen Inflationssorgen; Knapp über Tagestief
Dienstag 17. Juni 2008, 22:18 Uhr

NEW YORK (dpa-AFX) - Die US-Börsen haben nach einem uneinheitlichen Start am Dienstag mit Verlusten geschlossen. Sie gingen knapp über ihrem kurz zuvor erreichten Tagestief aus dem Handel. Die besser als erwartet ausgefallenen Quartalszahlen der Investmentbank Goldman Sachs verblassten angesichts wachsender Inflationssorgen. Diese waren am Nachmittag verstärkt worden durch deutlicher als erwartet gestiegene Erzeugerpreise im Mai. Vor allem die hohen Energie- und Lebensmittelpreise hatten dazu beigetragen. Zudem war die Industrieproduktion etwas stärker als erwartet gesunken und auch die Zahl der Baugenehmigungen sank, wenn auch etwas weniger deutlich als prognostiziert worden war.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - Nachrichten) <GS.NYS> fielen nach einem freundlichen Start ins Minus und gaben 1,46 Prozent auf 179,44 Dollar ab. Die Investmentbank litt im zweiten Quartal weniger stark als befürchtet unter der Finanzkrise. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum gingen Erträge und Gewinn zwar zurück, lagen aber deutlich über den Erwartungen der Analysten. Citigroup (NYSE: C - Nachrichten) <C.NYS> sanken um 1,78 Prozent 20,46 Dollar. JPMorgan verloren 2,25 Prozent auf 39,04 Dollar. Bank of America (NYSE: IKJ - Nachrichten) gaben um 3,56 Prozent auf 29,24 Dollar nach.

Wachovia <WB.NYS> büßten 5,35 Prozent auf 17,16 Dollar ein und litten damit vor allem unter einer Kurszielsenkung: Die Experten von Goldman Sachs hatte das Ziel für die Aktie der Bank von 28 auf 20 Dollar gesenkt und den Titel mit "Neutral" bestätigt. Für Washington Mutual <WM.NYS> reduzierten sie das Kursziel von 9,00 auf 6,50 Dollar und bestätigten die "Sell"-Einstufung, was der Aktie ein Minus von 7,85 Prozent auf 6,22 Dollar bescherte. Wells Fargo bestätigten die Analysten mit "Neutral" und senkten das Ziel von 33 auf 30 Dollar. Das Papier verlor 3,71 Prozent auf 25,40 Dollar. Zur Begründung hieß es bei allen drei Werten in der Branchenstudie, dass die Trendwende bei den US-Banken weiter auf sich warten lasse. Goldman Sachs sieht zudem den Höhepunkt der Verluste aus Kreditgeschäften nicht vor 2009 erreicht. Kapitalerhöhungen ließen sich zudem nicht mehr so leicht realisieren.

Wal-Mart Stores gaben 1,05 Prozent auf 58,69 Dollar nach. Der weltgrößte Einzelhändler will im Geschäftsjahr 2008/2009 (31. Januar) nur noch zwischen 13 bis 14 Milliarden Dollar investieren. Bisher waren 13,5 bis 15,2 Milliarden Dollar geplant. Die Aktien von Best Buy fielen um 5,27 Prozent auf 44,46 Dollar. Der Elektronik-Einzelhändler hatte vor Börsenstart Zahlen zum ersten Geschäftsquartal vorgelegt und damit schließlich bei Analysten Sorgen über künftigen Margendruck geweckt. Bei Goldman Sachs hieß es etwa, dass die Zahlen zwar besser als erwartet ausgefallen seien, aber die heimische operative Marge um 30 Basispunkte gefallen sei, während zugleich die heimischen Umsätze auf vergleichbarer Fläche um 3,5 Prozent zugelegt hätten.

Der Softwarehersteller Adobe Systems konnte ebenfalls nicht von seinen Quartalszahlen profitieren. Die Aktien verloren 3,38 Prozent auf 41,40 Dollar. Getrieben von einer hohen Nachfrage nach Grafik- und Internetsoftware waren Umsatz und Gewinn im zweiten Quartal stärker gestiegen als erwartet. Die Analysten der UBS (Virt-X: UBSN.VX - Nachrichten) erhöhten das Kursziel von 45 auf 48 Dollar und bestätigten die Einstufung "Neutral". Die UBS-Analystin Heather Bellini hob hervor, dass der Gewinn je Aktie vor allem wegen einer niedrigeren Steuerquote etwas besser ausgefallen sei, als sie prognostiziert hatte. Kurzfristig, so meinte sie, sei wegen der Zahlen nicht mit einer besonderen Aktienkursbewegung zu rechnen.

Wyeth (NYSE: WYE - Nachrichten) und Elan (Dublin: DRX.IR - Nachrichten) legten dagegen nach positiven Patientendaten für einen Medikamentenkandidaten gegen Alzheimer deutlich zu. Wyeth gewannen 4,83 Prozent auf 45,16 Dollar und Elan stiegen sogar um 10,66 Prozent auf 30,00 Dollar. Die komplette Phase-II-Studie zum gemeinsam entwickelten Bapineuzumab werde nächsten Monat offengelegt, hieß es. Die Deutsche Bank beurteilte die Aussagen als "sehr ermutigend"./ck/zb

http://de.biz.yahoo.com/17062008/36/aktien-new-york-schluss-…

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.321.554 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 09:15:29

stimmt, das Thema gibt es ja auch noch.

Irgendwann bekommen wir das bestimmt noch hin.

(wenn wir alle Rentner sind und/oder unser Baby für $100,- übernommen wird)

[Poppholz]

Health Winners & Losers: Elan
06/17/08 - 03:56 PM EDT
Elizabeth Trotta

Health stocks generally traded slightly lower Tuesday, in line with the broader markets, despite some individual stock moves spurred by clinical data.

Elan (ELN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Wyeth (WYE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) shed some light Tuesday on the much anticipated phase II trial on bapineuzumab as a treatment for Alzheimer's. The companies said the drug did not register statistically significant efficacy when assessed for the whole 240 patients enrolled. But it did meet some endpoints in a subgroup of patients who didn't have a higher genetic risk for developing Alzheimer's -- non-carriers of the Apolipoprotein E4 (ApoE4) allele. The companies said this group accounts for 40% to 70% of the Alzheimer's population.

Elan shares added $2.59, or 9.6% to $29.70, while Wyeth shares traded up $2.12, or 4.9%, at $45.20. The companies plan to continue a previously disclosed phase III program.

Leerink and Swann upgraded Wyeth to outperform from market perform Tuesday. The stock is a component of the Amex pharmaceutical index, but that individual boost wasn't quite enough to keep the index out of the red. The pharma index fell 0.1% to 285.91. The Nasdaq and Amex biotechnology indices were down 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

A component of the Nasdaq biotechnology index, Acadia(ACAD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), continued its descent for a second day after the company announced that its ACP-104 for the treatment of schizophrenia failed a phase IIb trial. On Tuesday the company suffered downgrades from Bank of America, Friedman Billings Ramsey and Jeffries and Co. -- to sell, market perform and hold, respectively. Shares edged down another 37 cents, or 7.7%, to $4.46 Tuesday, after giving up more than 40% in the previous trading session.

On to business developments, Medicis (MRX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) said after Monday's market close that it is beefing up its aesthetics portfolio with the purchase of privately held LipoSonix for $150 million in cash and as much as $150 million more in milestone payments. Medicis shares gave up $1.73, or 7.6% to $20.99 Tuesday.

Also, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) said Tuesday that its board authorized a buyback of an additional $100 million of outstanding common stock under its 2007 stock-repurchase program, raising the total authorization to $300 million. Shares climbed 59 cents, or 3.6%, to $17.14.

In other health stocks, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey raised its price target for health-care services provider Kindred Healthcare (KND - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) to $29 from $25, and Stifel Nicolaus upped its price target for the stock to $33 from $30. Shares were up 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $31.48.


P.S. Cramer's Investor Service on Sale — Limited Time

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http://www.thestreet.com/story/10421791/1/health-winners-los…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.322.070 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 10:13:56

(wenn wir alle Rentner sind und/oder unser Baby für $100,- übernommen wird)


......dann willst du schon in 2 bis 3 Jahren in Rente gehen ????

[Poppholz]

AIG, Elan, Infinera, Mentor Graphics, Zions: U.S. Equity Movers

By Fabio Alves

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies had unusual price changes in U.S. markets. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names, and prices are as of 4 p.m. in New York.

Regional banks fell after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts wrote that credit losses won't peak until 2009, the cost of new capital will climb and potential interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve may reduce lending profitability.

SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI US), based in Atlanta, retreated 8.8 percent to $40.61. Ohio lender Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN US) dropped 8.6 percent to $6.10. Washington Mutual Inc. (WM US), the largest U.S. savings and loan by assets, sank 7.9 percent to $6.22.

Zions Bancorporation (ZION US) dropped 10 percent to $33.37 for the biggest loss in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. The Salt Lake City-based lender said further increases in nonperforming assets were ``likely.''

American Express Co. (AXP US) slid 4.3 percent to $42.76 for the second-biggest drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst Scott Valentin reiterated his ``underperform'' rating on the shares of the U.S. largest credit card lender, citing concern that consumer credit will continue to deteriorate this year.

American International Group Inc. (AIG US) led declines in the Dow average, dropping 5.1 percent to $32.28. The world's largest insurer by assets said its Wilmington Finance Inc. unit will stop originating mortgages through brokers and reduce the number of loans it makes directly to homebuyers.

Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ US) jumped 11 percent to a record $47. The maker of solar-power panels increased its 2008 sales forecast to as much as $870 million from a previous range of $650 million to $750 million, according to a statement sent by PRNewswire.

Chiquita Brands International Inc. (CQB US) gained the most since May 2, rising 5.4 percent to $17.55. The seller of bananas and other produce in more than 70 countries said its third- quarter loss will be ``roughly in line'' with a year earlier. Chiquita yesterday predicted a ``significant loss,'' spurring the biggest decline in the stock since 2003.

Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK US) dropped the most since Jan. 8, falling 9.2 percent to $12.70. The movie theater operator was lowered to ``equal-weight'' from ``overweight'' at Morgan Stanley.

Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS US) slid 5.6 percent to $31.72, the biggest drop since November. The Fort Lauderdale, Florida- based maker of computer-networking software was downgraded to ``market perform'' from ``outperform'' at Friedman Billings Ramsey following the departure of its head sales executive.

CME Group Inc. (CME US) rose the most in the S&P 500, gaining 5.3 percent to $441.82. The world's largest futures exchange received Department of Justice approval for its planned acquisition of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The $8.6 billion deal still requires shareholder and regulatory approval. Citigroup Inc. raised the shares to ``buy'' from ``hold.''

Elan Corp. (ELN US) jumped 11 percent to $30, the highest since November 2004. Ireland's largest drugmaker said its experimental Alzheimer's drug bapineuzumab helped some patients in a new test, offering a possible breakthrough in treating the degenerative brain disorder.

Wyeth (WYE US), Elan's U.S. partner, increased 4.8 percent to $45.16.

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. (GNK US) gained the most since Jan. 29, rising 9.1 percent to $61.89. The New York-based shipper of commodities said it will buy six ships for $530 million and increase capacity by 20 percent.

Other dry-bulk shippers also advanced. Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (EXM US) rose 11 percent to $43.44. Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (EGLE US) gained 6.3 percent to $29.53. DryShips Inc. (DRYS US) added 7.3 percent to $81.50.

Infinera Corp. (INFN US) tumbled 26 percent, the biggest drop since its initial public offering a year ago, to $10.28. The maker of high-speed network systems forecast 2008 revenue less than its previous projection.

Luminex Corp. (LMNX US) fell the most since Jan. 24, sliding 10 percent to $20.15. The developer of biological testing technologies said it plans to sell 3.5 million shares to the public, with an option for an additional 525,000 shares, to fund general corporate purposes.

Mentor Graphics Corp. (MENT US) surged 21 percent, the biggest gain since October 2002, to $14.98. The software maker received a $1.6 billion hostile takeover bid from Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS US), the largest maker of programs for creating semiconductors, after spurning earlier advances. The per-share offer is about $16 in cash, 30 percent more than Mentor's closing value yesterday.

Cadence Design declined 6.5 percent, the most since Jan. 31, to $10.84.

Newfield Exploration Co. (NFX US) gained 5.9 percent to $67.72, the highest since May 20. The U.S. natural gas producer that sold $1.8 billion of assets last year said it boosted its 2008 production forecast for the second time this year after output started at Malaysian fields.

Regions Financial Corp. (RF US) fell 7.4 percent to $12.73, the lowest since December 1994. An Arkansas unit of Alabama's biggest bank was sued by a Lloyd's of London insurer that claimed the company owes more than $1.5 million for selling policies to unauthorized clients in Louisiana.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabio Alves in New York at [e-mail].

Last Updated: June 17, 2008 16:25 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=aDSYazm8…

[Poppholz]

AP
Movers roundup: CME Group, Wyeth-Elan
Tuesday June 17, 5:25 pm ET

Movers roundup: CME Group jumps on acquisition approval; Wyeth, Elan rise on drug results

Among the stock activity stories for Tuesday, June 17, from AP Financial News:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of CME Group Inc. and Nymex Holdings Inc. both rose sharply Tuesday, a day after the Department of Justice approved CME Group's planned acquisition of the New York Mercantile Exchange operator.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Wyeth and Elan Corp. rose Tuesday as data showed their new Alzheimer's drug bapineuzumab helped a large subgroup of the patient population.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080617/movers_roundup_cme_group.html

[Poppholz]

die News gehen gut rum.

Ist halt von Vorteil, wenn man einen Partner wie WYETH hat, der doch ein wenig mehr Aufmerksamkeit durch die Presse bekommt.

[Poppholz]

One-Day Wonder

Alzheimer's Drug Data Push Wyeth Higher
By Will Swarts

The Company
Wyeth (WYE)
Share price as of Monday's close: $43.08
Share price now: $45.16
Percent change: 4.8%
Volume: 30.4 million shares, daily average 7.3 million


The News
Shares of Wyeth (WYE: 45.16, +2.08, +4.82%) closed up 5% Tuesday after the Madison, N.J.-based drug developer's experimental treatment for Alzheimer's disease showed promise in a midstage clinical trial. Elan (ELN: 30.00, +2.89, +10.66%), Ireland's largest pharmaceutical maker and co-developer of the drug, saw its American depositary shares gain as well.

The small Phase II trial of bapineuzumab, considered one of the leading pharmaceutical prospects for treating the degenerative brain disease, wasn't an unqualified success, with many patients showing no difference from those treated with a placebo over the 18-month study.

But for patients who lack the ApoE4 gene, a subset that makes up 40% to 70% of Alzheimer's sufferers, the drug showed "statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits in important subgroups," both companies said.

As many as 4.5 million Americans suffer from some form of Alzheimer's, and that could quadruple to 14 million by 2050, say researchers, although estimates vary widely. The global population could reach 100 million by that time as the baby boom generations of North America and Western Europe head toward advanced old age, when Alzheimer's strikes most often.

Full data on the 240-patient study will be unveiled at a medical conference on Alzheimer's disease to be held in Chicago at the end of July.

Both companies are holding late-stage trials on the drug that divide patients into carriers and noncarriers of the ApoE4 gene.

Wyeth, which has had five major drugs in development delayed over the last two years, was upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform by Leerink Swann, an investment bank specializing in health care.

The Analysis
In the volatile field of biotechnology, any good news is pounced on swiftly, but Tuesday's market response reflects the specific, partial nature of this early success.

"We did not expect significance in this trial with the small patient numbers," says Brian McCarthy, an analyst with Merriman Curhan Ford & Co. "It wasn't necessarily powered toward significance. But for non ApoE4 carriers, this is a very broad positive response across multiple exams that are both cognitive and functional. This is broad statistical improvement that speaks very positively for the drug at this point."

But the measured response by the market suggests that investors aren't ready to send shares of either company soaring, despite the estimated $6.5 billion market for Alzheimer's drugs. No other drugs on the market or in development appear to show the promise of bapineuzumab therapies, McCarthy says.

Jack Gorman, of Dublin-based Davy Stockbrokers, wrote Tuesday that it's far too early to make conclusions on early positive indications.

"Many questions still have to be answered, and the devil will be in the detail on issues such as specific dose response and the actual magnitude of the various results outlined here," he wrote.

The statistical insignificance of results among ApoE4 carriers limits the upside, but also forces future research to explore more distinct patient populations, which joins market-based drug development to an improved basic understanding of the illness.

"Alzheimer's has been a particularly difficult application for developing drugs, and scientifically, we're still trying to understand the cause of the disease," McCarthy says. "Anything we learn from the trials will greatly aid [Elan and Wyeth's] own and other efforts in the future in the Alzheimer's space."


The Bottom Line
Investors in smaller biotech companies are accustomed to big highs, and just as often, big lows. Drug development is more of an all-or-nothing proposition than many other businesses, and that makes the sector very volatile.

"Biotech is a high-risk investment area, and statistically the majority of drugs do not make it through approval," McCarthy says. "You have to look really deeply into each drug to make an assessment."

That's generally beyond the small investor's abilities, so paying attention to the release of data that will be dissected by experts is crucial. Even when that analysis is carried out, it's sometimes hard to tell what's being said, or how much weight it carries.

Gorman's report, which reads in part, "Given the small patient numbers involved in the trials, the achievement of statistical significance on multiple efficacy measures in the noncarrier group is very encouraging," is hardly an unqualified endorsement.

In the laborious process of finding treatment for an insidious disease, this small positive piece of a complex medical puzzle is getting an appropriate response from the market, and there may be more to come.

"We think this is one of the exciting drugs" in possible Alzheimer's treatments, says McCarthy. "When they release full data at the end of next month, we can then assess for ourselves how strong this is. Rapid penetration by a drug that showed reasonable efficacy could be expected."



http://www.smartmoney.com/one-day-wonder/index.cfm?story=200…

[Poppholz]

Market Scan
Alzheimer's Drug Trial Helps Investors Forget Wyeth Troubles
Lionel Laurent and Lisa LaMotta 06.18.08, 1:10 AM ET

With patent expiration wiping out its blockbusters, Wyeth has been desperate to find new drugs.

It may have one. The beaten-down pharmaceutical company released data Tuesday that brings hope that an Alzheimer's treatment has significant potential.

Wyeth and its Irish partner Elan said Tuesday that a Phase 2 clinical trial of Alzheimer's treatment Bapineuzumab had yielded "encouraging preliminary findings."

Analysts were encouraged as well. Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez upgraded Wyeth to "outperform" because he believes bapineuzumab has long-term potential. Fernandez expects sales of bapineuzumab to be $150.0 million in 2011 and $750.0 million in 2012.

Shares in Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) closed up 5.7%, to 18.18 euros ($28.19), in Dublin. Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) rose 4.8%, or $2.08, to $45.16.

The 18-month trial generated statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits for patients not carrying a gene known as "ApoE4," which apparently accounts for 40% to 70% of Alzheimer's sufferers.

Doug Petkus, a spokesman for Wyeth told Forbes.com that the company was planning to release the complete data in July.

"The data in itself was better than our own expectations, especially in a subset of the patient population that doesn't carry this ApoE4 gene," said Jack Gorman, analyst with Davy Stockbrokers. He told Forbes.com that the drug was still at an early stage of testing, but that it showed signs of being able to change the progression of Alzheimer's rather than only tackling the symptoms.

According to Elan, for non-carriers of ApoE4, the study's preliminary results showed a smaller loss of brain volume among treated patients than for placebo patients. Loss of brain volume is associated with the onslaught of Alzheimer's, and any ability to fight this would be significant.

The results did show an increase in adverse side-effects for carriers of ApoE4, especially at higher doses; some patients who were given the drug experienced "vasogenic edema," or brain swelling, but this did not affect placebo patients. According to an Elan spokesman, this was as expected and did not reach clinically significant levels.

The Bapineuzumab treatment is an antibody designed to clear amyloid from the brain, which is seen as the most likely path to success for fighting Alzheimer's. Amyloids are protein deposits found in the brains of Alzheimer's victims, and the pharmaceutical industry seems confident that a major part of tackling the disease will involve defeating amyloids. (See "Attacking Alzheimer's")

"The preliminary analysis of the Phase 2 study are a continued validation of the amyloid approach to Alzheimer's disease, and an important milestone in our companies' ongoing commitment to bring new treatment options to patients," Elan Chief Executive Kelly Martin said in a press release Tuesday.

Last week, Elan resumed testing of another Alzheimer's treatment, this time a vaccine designed to stimulate the immune system. Testing had been suspended in April after a potentially serious side-effect suffered by one patient, involving skin lesions.

The company has been under pressure to find a new blockbuster now that Effexor, its antidepressant drug, faces patent expiration in 2010. The company also faced generic competition for its blockbuster heartburn drug Protonix at the end of last year.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/06/18/elan-wyeth-update2-…

[Poppholz]

Health June 18, 2008, 12:01AM EST
Alzheimer's Drug Shows Progress
While not an all-out success, Phase II testing of a Wyeth-Elan treatment showed positive results in a subset of patients. Investors applauded
by Catherine Arnst

The much anticipated results of a clinical trial of one of the more promising Alzheimer's drugs, released June 17, were mixed at best. But in the Alzheimer's world that qualifies as a success—and on Wall Street, it was a winner as well.

Wyeth Pharmaceuticals (WYE) and Elan Corp. (ELN) announced that the Phase II trial of their jointly developed drug, bapineuzumab, did not attain statistically significant results in the overall group of 240 patients. But in a subset of patients that lacked a high-risk gene variant for the disease, the drug significantly improved symptoms in five different tests. Patients in the gene-free group also lost less brain volume.

Investors chose to read the trial as a positive, boosting Elan's share price by 2.89, or 10.7%, to 30. The stock hit a six-year high of 30.30 during the day's trading. Wyeth's shares rose by 2.08, or 4.8%, to 45.16.

Targeting the Amyloid Protein
The gene in question, APOE4, is carried by about half of all Alzheimer's patients and usually signals earlier onset of the disease. A drug that might help only those patients without the gene may not sound all that meaningful, but the 18-month trial marks one of the first hints of success in the search for a drug meant to change the course of the disease for which there is currently no treatment.

The four drugs approved so far for Alzheimer's treat only symptoms, and work only for a few months. The bapineuzumab trial also represents one of the first successes for a number of drugs in the pipeline that are trying to modify the disease by clearing away a brain-destroying protein called amyloid that is a hallmark of Alzheimer's.

If the results play out in a much larger Phase III trial already under way—and that is still a big if—then bapineuzumab would represent a major advance in one of the greatest unmet needs in medicine.

A Potential Multibillion-Dollar Market
"It's fair to say that both myself and the other investigators on this trial are quite excited," says Dr. Anton Porsteinsson, director of the Alzheimer's disease care, research, and education program at the University of Rochester, who is treating patients in both the Phase II and III trials of the drug. "It is the first time a study of meaningful size and scope has shown that beta amyloid modulation makes a difference."

Wall Street's enthusiasm reflects the multibillion-dollar market that any successful Alzheimer's drug could tap into. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced last week that in 2006, the last year for which data were compiled, Alzheimer's moved up from the seventh to the sixth leading cause of death in the U.S. There are currently 5.2 million Americans living with the disease, and the Alzheimer's Association expects that number to increase to 9 million by 2020. One in 10 people over 65 develop the brain-destroying disease; over age 85, the odds rise to one in two.

Most pharmaceutical analysts had not expected statistically significant results from the Wyeth-Elan trial because of the relatively small number of patients. Brian McCarthy, a biotech analyst with Merriman Curhan Ford, said the results were encouraging, however, because the patients in the non-APOE4 group showed improvement across a broad spectrum of tests.

Out of Failure, Some Success
This could still end up being a statistical fluke however, if the overall number of patients in the non-APOE4 group turns out to be very small. "We want to take a look at the full test results before reaching any conclusions, but this subset analysis is certainly very interesting," McCarthy said. Wyeth and Elan will present the full results at the International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease in Chicago at the end of July.

Bapineuzumab is an antibody, given by injection, that grew out of one of the more spectacular drug failures of recent years—a therapeutic vaccine meant to alter the course of Alzheimer's. The vaccine was also developed by Elan and Wyeth, and was once considered the most promising drug in the pipeline against the dreaded disease. But in 2002 the trial had to be stopped because several patients developed a deadly swelling of the brain.

A year later, after some trial participants had died of Alzheimer's, autoposies revealed that those patients who received the vaccine had much lower levels of amyloid in their brains, a sticky plaque that destroys neurons. Although there is no definitive proof that amyloid is the cause of Alzheimer's, the evidence that the vaccine did what it was supposed to gave the two companies reason to pursue a drug that would attack amyloid without the vaccine's side effects.

Elan and Wyeth said that bapineuzumab, also known as AAB-001, did cause some brain swelling in the Phase II trial. To minimize this danger, the drug is being administered at a lower dose in the Phase III trial, which started last year.

Arnst is a senior writer for BusinessWeek based in New York.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jun2008/…

[bernie55]

........meine Güte, POPPIE, du lässt einen ja richtig schwitzen..
...du hälst einen mit den englischsprachigen Artikeln ja richtig auf Trab.....

THX für die Infos

[bernie55]

NCB

Elan's ADRs yesterday rose 10.7% to a 3 year high of $30.00 following the release of positive topline Phase II data for bapineuzumab (AAB-001).

To recap, primary efficacy endpoints in the overall study population did not demonstrate statistical significance (this was as expected given the small patient population size), however a subgroup of Apo-e4 non-carriers (40-70% of AD population) showed statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefits across several key efficacy endpoints including ADAS-cog, NTB, MMSE and CDR-Sum of Boxes.

Results for the subgroup of Apo-e4 carriers were less encouraging with no clinical benefits or statistically significant effects on efficacy endpoints or the brain volume endpoint being demonstrated, however, favorable directional changes were observed on a number of endpoints.

It is worth highlighting at this point, that the ongoing Phase III studies have been structured so as to stratify patients based on the presence (or absense) of the Apo-e4 genotype, with 2,500 of the total of 4,000 patients being non-carriers.

In keeping with Elan/Wyeth's original target, the full Phase II data will be presented at the ICAD conference on July 29, 2008. This will be of great interest to the scientific and investor communities alike.

Key points of interest will include
(i) the magnitude of movements in efficacy endpoints,
(ii) patient responses within each dose cohort,
(iii) the split of carriers/non-carriers in the study,
(iv) whether non-carriers demonstrated stabilisation or improvement and
(v) the potential of the treatment for carriers.

Post yesterday's announcement, we have increased our probability of success for AAB-001 to 75% (from 55%), which results in a net present value for AAB-001 of c.$8.1bn.

Accordingly, we have updated our SOTP valuation range to $31.25-$33.35 (from $27.23-$29.35). Our recommendation remains Buy with a mid-range target price of $32.30. We see the potential for further upside to our valuation range following the release next month of the full Phase II data which may warrant the inclusion in our SOTP valuation of other elements of Elan's AD pipeline


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=242890&pt=…

[Poppholz]

Alzheimer Drug Fails Trial
by: Eben Tessari posted on: June 17, 2008

Wyeth
For a drug expected to top $7B in annual sales, even a partial success looks like a failure to me. I’ve talked about the efficacy in modulating APP for the treatment of Alzheimer’s a few times and Derek Lowe @ has some great articles, so if you’re not familiar, I‘d check them out to catch up.

On to the news. I’m going to try and summarize the press release from Elan and Wyeth without all the spin. Bapineuzumab failed to reach significance on the primary endpoint in a phase 2 trial

Simple, right? Maybe not. The trial did show efficacy, though magnitude wasn’t released, in a small subgroup of patients (in non-carriers of the ApoE4 allele, estimated to be ~40% of Alzheimer’s patients).

So, right off the bat, this should cut analyst expectations by 60% right?

Interestingly, in trying to explain away not hitting the primary endpoint for the general population, the release mentions that the study wasn’t powered to detect changes in ADAS-cog.

Fantastic. Let me just break down this flow and see if we can make more sense of it.

1.) Run a trial that is not powered to detect primary endpoint changes.

2.) Fail primary, ADAS-cog endpoint.

3.) Release that you succeeded in a subgroup of patients on many endpoints (that you admittedly aren’t powered to detect)

4.) Conclude with statements like, “bapineuzumab appeared to have clinical activity in treating Alzheimer’s disease“, and “…the Phase 2 study are a continued validation of the amyloid approach to Alzheimer’s disease”.

Fundamentally, I’m happy that there are companies with deep-pockets attempting to treat debilitating diseases in novel ways but doing things over and over, expecting different results is foolish.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/81715-alzheimer-drug-fails-t…

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.322.900 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 11:40:32

Deutschland ist halt nicht so schnell.

Bei guten News bringt die Recherche ja auch ein wenig Spass.

[bernie55]

..hier einmal eine Grafik über die Zusammenhänge von dem APOE Gen und dem Alzheimer Risiko.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Merrion Stock Brokers Dublin
Encouraging top line data from Phase II in sub group
Tue, 17 Jun 2008
Elan published top line data from the AAB-001 trial this morning. No statistically significant improvement was found in the primary end points of the trial, but given the small patient size this was not expected. A breakdown of headline data was provided by the two subgroups identified for phase III trials – “carriers” and “non-carriers” of the APOE e4 gene.

The results of the trial in “non-carriers” were extremely strong. Statistical significance was seen on cognitive measures - ADAS-cog, MMSE, NTB; and global function and activities of daily living - CDR-sb with a favourable directional change on the Disability Assessment Scale for Dementia (DAD). Furthermore in “non-carriers” there was a statistically significant reduction in loss of brain volume compared to placebo.

Carriers of the APOE e4 gene did not show statistical significance on the efficacy endpoints although “favourable directional changes were observed on a number of endpoints”. In this group there was a possible increase in ventricular volume in treated patients versus placebo (this is negative). Clinical significance of this is unclear.

With the limited information provided and at first read, the results in the “non-carriers” are extremely good for a relatively small phase two trial and would be strongly indicative of a disease modifying label in that group of patients – as it has statistical significance in cognitive and functional endpoints as well as positive biomarker evidence (the requirements for disease modifying treatment).

The results in the APOE e4 carriers are less impressive and without further information (which is unlikely to be provided until ICAD in late July) it is difficult to assess the potential of the drug in this group. Some directional changes have been observed, and there are increased safety risks associated to this group (higher vasogenic edema).

The APOE e4 gene is present in about 2% of the population but increases the lifetime risk of AD by 3-4 times, it also leads to earlier onset of the disease. Accordingly carriers of the gene make up a disproportionate proportion of the AD patient population. Elan would not be drawn into specifying the % of patients that were APOE e4 carriers in the current trial – but noted that the literature has estimated the APOE e4 carriers to be c.30-60% of AD population.

Overall, the results are positive, with clear efficacy in the “non-carriers” of the APOE e4 results and give support to the claim to be the first disease modifying therapy in Alzheimer’s Disease. The full data presented at ICAD at the end of July will be important to assess the overall potential for the drug in the total population.
" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.finfacts.ie/IFD/merrioncapital.htm

[Poppholz]

Biotech
Biotech Review: Elan's Alzheimer's Drug
2008-06-18 07:09:55.0
ELN WYE
Adam Feuerstein

A full day has passed since Elan (ELN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Wyeth (WYE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) released their much-anticipated midstage study results of bapineuzumab in Alzheimer's patients.

And both stocks, a day later, are the better for it. Investors offered up an enthusiastic response to the data Tuesday: Elan ended the day up $2.89, or 10.7%, at $30, a price the stock hasn't visited since the fall of 2004. Wyeth ended Tuesday at $45.16, with a gain of a $2.08, or 4.8%.

So what's an average investor to make of the data and the response in shares, you ask? Let's examine the results and action with a little hypothetical Q&A.

What do you think of the phase II data?

As a noted skeptic, I must say that these results are better than what I expected to see, specifically the statistically significant benefit seen with bapineuzumab patients who don't carry the ApoE4 gene.

I wasn't going to be surprised to see some trend in favor of bapineuzumab, but I wasn't expecting statistically significant results, especially in a relatively small study.

Aha! I knew you'd convert. The Elan bulls were right -- these data are really spectacular.

Well, not so fast. For starters, Elan and Wyeth have held a lot of data back so that it can be presented at the Alzheimer's meeting next month. And while the ApoE4 "non carrier" patients appear to do quite well with bapineuzumab, the analysis was retrospective and the number of patients small.

I might be a skeptic, but I'm not stupid or blind, so after reading the press release Tuesday morning and talking to a lot of people about it, I have to recognize the fact that bapineuzumab might just be a game-changing Alzheimer's drug. I emphasize the "might" part, however, because there are a lot of questions that remain unanswered, and today's bapineuzumab update is not exactly the home-run result hoped for by the big-time believers.

Not a home run? Well, then it's a base-clearing triple. Did you see the move in Elan's stock price?

I did. The stock made an impressive climb -- up more than 10%. It was an epic battle to get to $30 at the close, with buyers really pushing the stock all afternoon following a relatively muted response in the morning. Let's see what happens over the next few days and weeks after the headlines fade. I'm interested to see if incremental fundamental buyers (not traders) or those previously on the fence will come into this stock in big numbers.

Even before Tuesday's news, I believed that Elan's stock price and $13 billion market baked in a good amount of bapineuzumab upside already. Looking ahead, there is risk involved in the presentation of the full phase II data set at the International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease (ICAD) meeting. Phase III clinical trials have already started but results are two years away.

What is most amazing is the trading volume in Elan shares Tuesday -- about 30 million shares exchanged hands, 10 times the average daily volume.

And lest we forget, Wyeth was up almost 5% Tuesday, too.

Help me understand why the bears aren't giving up on bapineuzumab, despite what looks like positive data.

Instead of me explaining the bear story, I'll just let an Elan short-seller speak for himself -- anonymously, of course.

"So, you see that the trial did not show anything on a prospective basis -- it failed. No mention of trends overall or prospectively. No mention of dose response. However, on a post-hoc retrospective basis, Elan found a plausible subgroup [the ApoE4 carriers] in which to declare victory.
"The trial was not randomized on the basis of ApoE4, and when the details emerge, you will see that the treated patients without ApoE4 were healthier than the placebo patients without ApoE4 accounting for all of the retrospective 'benefit.' Nonetheless, Elan found a way to declare victory, and this is the problem with phase II trials. You can analyze them and spin them to Wall Street anyway you want. If this data had been the phase III data, the trial would have failed."

Geesh, that guys sounds like a sore loser.

Well, he lost money today, so he's definitely not a happy camper. He does, however, make some good points, which is why next month's data presentation remains very important.

Personally, I want to see the data detailing the baseline characteristics of these Alzheimer's patients enrolled in the study. I want to see the actual numerical treatment effect of bapineuzumab in both non-carriers of the ApoE4 gene and those who are carriers. I want to see the benefit of bapineuzumab broken down by the doses used in the study. And I want to see the effect that patient dropouts and discontinuations had on the analysis.

If there were a significant benefit in non-carriers but no benefit overall, as Elan and Wyeth stated in their press release, then it seems possible, perhaps likely, that carrier patients actually fared worse after taking bapineuzumab.

Let me put it another way: In most cases, if I told you that a company released phase II study results where the primary endpoint failed but a statistically significant benefit was seen in a retrospectively defined subgroup of patients, and I then asked you to predict the direction of the stock price for that company, you'd likely say to me that the stock would trade down.

Elan essentially gave us this story Tuesday, yet the stock climbed and the bulls are claiming victory. That's something that doesn't entirely compute, which again, is why seeing the actual entire data from this study is a necessity.

You quoted an Elan short, but what are the bulls saying?

Here's an email I received from someone I consider to be a very intelligent, longtime investor in Elan. He's an "Elaniac" but not a cultist, if you catch my drift. I believe his comments sum up the mood of the Elan bulls quite nicely.

"Very exciting and encouraging results, despite this being four small trials in a very challenging disease, particularly once the ApoE4 carriers and non-carriers are broken out. Results in the non-carrier group are indeed spectacular, and I know that Elan and Wyeth are working hard to focus the design of the ApoE4 clinical trials to measure efficacy in the best ways possible while keeping the dose low to mitigate the safety challenges in this more vulnerable group.

"Recall that all patients in this trial as well as in the four phase III trials were/are permitted to be on the older-generation Alzheimer's drugs, so any improvements had to be above that baseline. I note that the press release was written from the perspective of scientists, and not to hype the results, so don't be put off by the absence of phrases such as 'miracle drug' and 'cure for Alzheimer's. I look forward to the presentation at ICAD in six weeks."

All this talk of ApoE4 gene carriers and non-carriers is very confusing. Please explain what it all means.

I'm not an expert either, but simply, ApoE4 is a variant of the ApoE gene that predisposes patients to developing Alzheimer's. If a person has two copies of the ApoE4 gene (one from his mother and one from his father), that person is 15 times more likely to develop Alzheimer's.

If a person has only one copy of the ApoE4 gene, the risk of developing Alzheimer's is elevated by about three times. To make this even more complicated, people without a single copy of the ApoE4 gene can and do develop Alzheimer's.

So, from what we know today about bapineuzumab, it may work in patients who don't carry copies of the ApoE4 gene, but not so much in patients who have one or two copies of the gene.

Let me get this right: In the people less likely to get Alzheimer's, the drug did well. In the people more likely to get Alzheimer's, the drug did nothing? Sounds like a boondoggle. What am I missing?

Wait, are you reading my email, because that's precisely what a reader asked me after reading my earlier column on the study results. It's a great question, but remember, the gene only confers added risk of getting Alzheimer's, it doesn't mean that people without the gene are immune from the disease.

I know you're sick of reading this, but these results underscore the importance of seeing the full data presented next month so that the differences between the carriers and non-carriers can be sussed out in detail.

When will that be?

Tuesday, July 29, during an afternoon session at the ICAD meeting in Chicago.

Will you be there?

Heck yeah, as will the rest of Wall Street's biotech and drug crowd. This is the biggest biotech event of the year, without a doubt.

P.S. Cramer's Investor Service on Sale — Limited Time

One of Wall Street's most successful hedge fund managers, Jim Cramer knows how to make money. Now, learn how Jim's navigating today's volatile market, including the buys and sells in his personal portfolio, at Action Alerts PLUS — and save $50. Act now on this limited-time offer.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10421811/1/biotech-review-ela…

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.324.177 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 13:53:49

da versucht ADAM sich aber jetzt rauszureden:

Aha! I knew you'd convert. The Elan bulls were right -- these data are really spectacular.


Genau da meinen wir!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.324.222 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 13:57:45

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.324.222 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 13:57:45

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.324.552 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 14:32:21

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/080618/jun2008db20080617778320.ht…

Alzheimer's Drug Shows Progress

Wednesday June 18, 8:08 am ET
By Catherine Arnst

The much anticipated results of a clinical trial of one of the more promising Alzheimer's drugs, released June 17, were mixed at best. But in the Alzheimer's world that qualifies as a success -- and on Wall Street, it was a winner as well. - - - - - -

[bernie55]

Ken Kam's Comments

Many in the financial industry want to believe that access to real-time data services like Bloomberg, Reuters, and Thompson give them an advantage over individual investors who lack access.

Perhaps this was true in the past, but today when the internet disseminates information quickly and virtually for free, access to information is no longer the competitive advantage it once was.

The real value no longer comes from having the news first, but in knowing how to interpret that news and therefore what actions to take. This takes good judgment and in this regard individual investors often have an advantage over Wall Street.

Today we saw a great example of this in action. When the market opened, both Elan and Wyeth traded up as much as 7% as the results of their Phase II trial for AAB-001 hit the newswires. Then, Bloomberg ran a story with the headline, “Elan Wyeth Alzheimer's drug didn't meet study goal,” and both stocks trimmed their gains.

While Bloomberg’s headline is accurate, it conveys a strong sense that AAB-001 was a failure, and nothing could be farther from the truth.

The drug showed a statistically significant beneficial effect on patients who don’t carry the ApoE4 gene. Somewhere between 40% and 60% of Alzheimer’s patients don’t have the ApoE4 gene, so an equally accurate headline could have been “Elan Wyeth Alzheimer’s drug found effective for many patients.”

There were 240 patients in the Phase II trial, so in order for the beneficial effect to be statistically significant, it had to be a big effect. It is now clear why the Phase III trial was designed so patients who carry ApoE4 are tracked separately from those who do not.

If the Phase III trial confirms the results, AAB-001 will offer hope for millions of patients who don’t carry ApoE4.

AAB-001 may be the first drug that can really alter the course of Alzheimer’s disease for many patients.

Wall Street may think these results were mediocre. But those who read more than the headline came to a much different conclusion.

Elan closed at $30, up 10% for the day.

When Wall Street disagrees with the judgment of the investors with the best track records at Marketocracy its easy for me to decide what to do. I am still not selling.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=243091&pt=…

[bernie55]

Elan – anticipated pipeline newsflow in 6-12 months

Products Newsflow > Anticipated timeline:

- Bapineuzumab Full Phase II data ICAD 26th-31st July
- Phase II imaging data End 2008/early 2009
- Filing/manufacturing decisions H2 2008
- Interim analyses (if included) Possibly H1 2009
- Bapineuzumab SubQ Initiate Phase II H2 2008
- ACC-001 Final study report on Phase I H2 2008
- ELND005 Initiate Phase II in early AD By end-2008
- ELND006 Initiate Phase I H2 2008
- ELND007 IND filing H2 2009
- Tysabri Revenue, patient and safety updates Quarterly
- Pre-IND meeting on UC indication H2 2008
- ELND002 Phase I data H2 2008
- ELND004 Initiate Phase II By end-2008

Source: Elan

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.036 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 16:52:18

woah!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.036 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 16:52:18

..mal ein bisschen Ordnung in den Laden bringen...

Elan – anticipated pipeline newsflow in 6-12 months

2008
- Bapineuzumab Full Phase II data ICAD 26th-31st July
- Filing/manufacturing decisions H2 2008
- Bapineuzumab SubQ Initiate Phase II H2 2008
- ACC-001 Final study report on Phase I H2 2008
- ELND005 Initiate Phase II in early AD By end-2008
- ELND006 Initiate Phase I H2 2008
- Tysabri Revenue, patient and safety updates Quarterly
- Pre-IND meeting on UC indication H2 2008
- ELND002 Phase I data H2 2008
- ELND004 Initiate Phase II By end-2008

2009
- Interim analyses (if included) Possibly H1 2009
- Phase II imaging data End 2008/early 2009
- ELND007 IND filing H2 2009


Source: Elan

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.081 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 16:56:33

..da könnten schon spannende events dabei sein...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.107 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 16:59:09

..ich denke...nur spannende events...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.107 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 16:59:09

..ich denke....nur spannende events....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.107 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 16:59:09

..ich denke....nur spannende events....

[Poppholz]

mal ein etwas größerer Chart:



(so sind die Steigerungen noch besser zu erkennen)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.175 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 17:04:36

ähm....stotterst DU?????????????????? Oder wieso soviele Ansätze....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.426 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 17:25:39

wir sollen Ihn doch nicht darauf ansprechen.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.546 von Poppholz am 18.06.08 17:37:39

OK!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Wir sind wohl upgerated worden von Standard + Poors...



ELN msg # 243195 6/18/2008 12:13:43 PM
By: truthe_sayer

Eln's alz drug 4 dummies: per S&P, BAP likely to work for ~50% of ALZ patients

(I am certainly qualified to post this as a world class dummy...)

Confused by all the smoke & thunder of the past 24 hours about BAP, ELN's alzheimer drug?

For those of you, like me, with a walnut-sized cerebellum and reading comprehension to match.. here is all you need to know. This is a direct quote from Standard and Poors who upgraded Elan. (Capitalization is mine for emphasis)

"'...Our upgrade follows...ELN's report of preliminary Phase II trial data showing bapineuzimab for Alzheimers demonstrated EFFICACY in negative Apolipoprotein E4 (non-ApoE4) subgroup, which represents about 50% of Alzheimer's patients....

...even if bapineuzimab were to work in [only] the non-ApoE4 subgroup, we see this as MULTI BILLION DOLLAR peak sales opportunity..."

repeat: "...MULTI BILLION DOLLAR peak sales..."

duuh even I can catch that drift.

This is a huge advance in the prospects for BAP from just a week ago...

...when efficacy --or STAT SIG (statistical significance) -- was a being debated. No further debate - these are now demonstrated RESULTS from a human clinical trial...

in a sample that represents ~ one half of all alzheimer patients.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.326.911 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 18:19:51

Wir sind wohl upgerated worden von Standard + Poors...

..tja, deshalb auch meine dreimalige, doch sehr bescheidenen Ansage der " spannenden events "....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.327.875 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 20:23:50

püh...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.327.912 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 20:28:22

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.327.939 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 20:31:18

29,76$...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.327.939 von bernie55 am 18.06.08 20:31:18

ELN msg # 243279 6/18/2008 2:35:55 PM
By: Powershares_ie

Word on the street

Smart money says Elan held back on the news yesterday and end of July should be much more revealing!

Good luck & regards

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.328.053 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 18.06.08 20:49:26

echt stark

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.328.415 von surga am 18.06.08 21:50:47

...find ich auch!

ELN msg # 243353 6/18/2008 4:06:35 PM
By: goodtoreadthis

Re: Rumors - (goodtoreadthis)-No buddy

Lars (and I think KM) kept repeating like a broken record that "dosing for phase 3 would commence by end of 07. " KM expressly said " Elnd-005 may catch up to aab-001 schedule wise." Coincidentally, both started dosing in Dec 07 with 005 in phase 2, aab-001 in phase 3.

Lars and Selkoe BOTH have said "It will take one year of safety data AND a positive adas-cog results to permit approval." ADAS-Cog positive was part of top line announcement on aab-001.

One year of a less than full enrollment safety data HITS in Dec 08. Full enrollment safety for one year SHOULD hit Oct 09. A Subpart e filing broadly hinted at by Allison Hume ( remember there were NO questions asked) at company day, would be a rolling filing and approval on aab-001 could happen before Thanksgiving 09 or Christmas 09.

If 005 is wrapping up phase 2 about that time and it is already a food supplement, bingo - we have a tie with both being approved at same time. Selkoe in May 07 literally suggested that 005 is tied to aab-001 scientifically. "Break up plaque, release oligomers, 005 mops up oligomers yada yada" ( he did not say yada yada - George Costanza said that)

IF July ICAD data is as strong at top line announcement says it is, pressure to act on FDA will go off the charts.

This ain't wishful thinking. All of this has been repeatedly BROADLY hinted at by KM, Lars, Risa Spirling, and most recently Ted Yednock. How many time has each of them told us - we will and have consulted with FDA and EMEA on this or that aspect of the test process, the results announcement or somesuch. It has been like a built in part of each sentence spoken. (Dr Salloway- Brown Med School MD and aab-001 investigator told me at end of Cowen " FDA will need safety data to approve this." By the expression on his face and given Dr Spirling flat out statement " efficacy will NOT be a problem for this drug. Safety will be the only issue.", he was saying once enough safety data is made available to FDA, aab will be approved. )

So far I have heard no baloney from them. Don't think Lars knows what baloney is.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 243447 6/18/2008 9:24:21 PM
By: longtimelong

Re: New Credit Suisse Report

mrbluechip: thanks for posting that. That's a great report from Credit Suisse! It has three statements that get to the heart of the matter for me, regarding efficacy, safety, and competitive position:

1. [Efficacy:] A statistical benefit on a patients' cognition and function over 18 months has never been shown before in any mild to moderate Alzheimer's cohort in a clinical trial.

2. [Safety:] Whilst cases of a potential safety issue Vasogenic edema, were seen in both APOE4 carrier and non-carriers, these effects were said to be transient with limited clinical manifestations, and regulators knew about these effects prior to allowing the product into Phase 3.

3. [A lead on the competition:] With Elan at least a few years ahead of the nearest competitor for mild to moderate Alzheimer's, and with consensus still half of managements $3 billion 2010 targets for MS treatment Tysabri in our view, we believe Elan remains a compelling fundamental story.


I'm eagerly awaiting more details on July 29!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.329.471 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 07:38:41

Credit Suisse bestätigt Elan Corp.mit 'Outperform' - Ziel 20 Euro
18.06.2008 - 16:43

LONDON (dpa-AFX Analyser) - Credit Suisse hat die Aktie von Elan Corp. nach Daten zum Alzheimer-Medikament Bapineuzumab mit "Outperform" und einem Kursziel von 20,00 Euro bestätigt. Die mit Spannung erwarteten Daten enthielten ermutigende Anzeichen von Wirksamkeit, schrieben Analysten von Credit Suisse in einer Studie vom Mittwoch. Unter anderem mit seinem Vorsprung von mindestens ein paar Jahren zum nächsten Wettbewerber im Bereich der leichten bis mittelgradigen Alzheimer-Demenz überzeuge Elan aufgrund seiner Fundamentaldaten weiterhin.

[bernie55]

Elan, Wyeth: Response to Skeptics on Alzheimer's Data

Elan (ELN) and Wyeth (WYE) presented their phase II data on June 17th with bapineuzumab in Alzheimer’s Disease.

In brief, the data showed that out of the 240 patients in the trial, those who had no apoE4 had statistical improvement compared to those who did. The skeptics made their case, to which I reply:

1. The prospective analysis failed.
The success was with retrospective analysis. My response to that is that in phase II studies where there are sometimes too many variables, often variables that are not known or identified when the study originated, it is not unusual to undertake retrospective analysis to identify positive trends. And in this case, it was more than a trend – it was statistically significant. Keep in mind that this was a phase II study – not a pivotal phase III study, where the analysis would have to be prospectively defined. I hope Elan/Wyeth made appropriate changes to their Phase III study and statistical analysis plan [SAP] to reflect this.
2. There was no mention of dose response.
Fair enough - but that does not mean there was no dose response. Absence of affirmation does not mean affirmation of absence. While a dose response is scientifically appealing, take a look at it practically. If the drug worked at a dose, and there was no effect whatever with smaller doses, would you refuse to take the effective dose if you had AD?
3. The sample size was small.
Of course it was – it was a phase II study. On the flip side – maybe it is impressive that there was statistical significance even with such a small sample size?
4. If you data-mine enough, you will find something statistically significant.
Not entirely true – having data mined through many studies, I can state with confidence that there are some truly negative studies. More importantly, if the data mining finds something significant that is scientifically reasonable, should it not be given some importance and explored in a prospective, controlled, larger study? Many drugs, including Viagra, came out of such exercises.
5. It only worked on patients with ‘milder’ disease.
Even if true, does that imply those with mild disease should not be treated? Should they be allowed to progress to severe disease?
6. It worked in only a small subset of patients (approximately 40%). I would not call 40% small, and 40% of tens of millions (just in the US) is still a large number.

The details of the study will be presented on Tuesday, July 29, during an afternoon session at the ICAD meeting in Chicago. Let the data speak for itself.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/81940-elan-wyeth-response-to…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.333.157 von bernie55 am 19.06.08 14:35:45

30 wurde wieder ngestossen

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.333.758 von surga am 19.06.08 15:38:12

den gibt es auch in groß:

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Drug trial defies Wall Street's 'wisdom'

The news on a trial of an in-development Alzheimer's drug missed the point -- a potential treatment that could help millions. But smart investors read past the headline.




Strategy Lab is MSN Money's stock-picking challenge. To learn more about the game and the contenders, click here.

Many in the financial industry want to believe that access to real-time data services like Bloomberg, Reuters and Thompson gives them an advantage over individual investors who lack access.

Perhaps this was true in the past, but today when the internet disseminates information quickly and virtually for free, access to information is no longer the competitive advantage it once was.

The real value no longer comes from having the news first, but in knowing how to interpret that news and therefore what actions to take. This takes good judgment, and in this regard individual investors often have an advantage over Wall Street.

We saw a great example of this in action earlier this week on news of a test of an important drug in development -- one which could offer hope to millions of Alzheimer's patients.

When the market opened Tuesday, both Elan (ELN, news, msgs) and Wyeth (WYE, news, msgs) traded up as much as 7% as the results of their Phase II trial for AAB-001 hit the newswires. Then Bloomberg ran a story with the headline, "Elan Wyeth Alzheimer's drug didn't meet study goal," and both stocks trimmed their gains.
The other side of the story
While Bloomberg's headline is accurate, it conveys a strong sense that AAB-001 -- also known as Bapineuzumab -- was a failure, and nothing could be farther from the truth.



The drug showed a statistically significant beneficial effect on patients who don't carry the ApoE4 gene. Somewhere between 40% and 60% of Alzheimer's patients don't have the ApoE4 gene, so an equally accurate headline could have been "Elan Wyeth Alzheimer's drug found effective for many patients."

There were 240 patients in the Phase II trial, so in order for the beneficial effect to be statistically significant, it had to be a big effect. It is now clear why the Phase III trial was designed so patients who carry ApoE4 are tracked separately from those who do not.

If the Phase III trial confirms the results, AAB-001 will offer a potential treatment to the millions of patients who don't carry ApoE4. AAB-001 may be the first drug that can really alter the course of Alzheimer's disease for many patients.

Wall Street may think these results were mediocre. But those who read more than the headline came to a much different conclusion. Elan, a long-time favorite of mine and the biggest position in my Strategy Lab portfolio, closed at $30, up 10% for the day.

Smart investors read past the headline and found the real story.

That's why, when Wall Street disagrees with the judgment of the investors with the best track records at Marketocracy, it's easy for me to decide what to do. I am still not taking profits by selling.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.333.916 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 15:49:41

sorry...der Artikel ist von Ken Kam...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.333.966 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 15:53:29

Höchste Stand seit Jahren

[surga]

seid Ihr alle noch an Board? Oder habt Ihr schon verkauft?

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.333.793 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 15:40:34

ja, richtig. Aber ich wollte auch die Zahl sehen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.550 von surga am 19.06.08 16:39:48

eye eye--an BORD!!!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.566 von surga am 19.06.08 16:41:02

ist halt manchmal wegen der Werbebanner am rechten Rand überdeckt. Muss man einfach noch einmal aktualisieren und dann sind die Zahlen auch zu erkennen.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.550 von surga am 19.06.08 16:39:48

ich glaube kaum, dass von "uns" zur Zeit jemand verkauft.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.768 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 16:55:33

ich überlege eher, ob ich meine Stücke nicht mal zu €100,- zum Verkauf stelle um eventuell noch ein paar Shorties zu ärgern.

Wann und wo gibt es eigentlich die aktuellen Shortquoten?

Habe hierfür momentan keinen Link.

[Poppholz]

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=NY%5eeln&p=0&t=…

macht sich auch gut auf einem eigenen Monitor

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.806 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 16:58:17

und wir sind dabei!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[/img]

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.806 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 16:58:17

[/img]

[Poppholz]

gleich haben wir die €20,- Marke überwunden

(auf jeden Fall rechnerisch bei einem Wechselkus von 1 zu 1,55)

[Cyberhexe]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.788 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 16:57:03

zum 5/30/2008 waren 26,836 Mio Aktien leer verkauft:

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

31,40!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Wir nennen es SHORT_Squezze---Das Brennen der Kurzen---ach,ist das traurig......---31,74--wir werden REICH,Jungs!!



Breakthrough treatment for Alzheimer's Disease?
Excerpt.
http://rochesterhomepage.net/content/fulltext/?cid=17461
Jun 19, 2008
Breakthrough treatment for Alzheimer's Disease?
…
This is very, very meaningful in terms of the possibility of effective treatments, it opens a whole new sea of possibilities,” says Dr. Anton Porsteinsson an associate professor of psychiatry and Alzheimer’s disease specialist at the University of Rochester.
The IV drug targets amyloid proteins which build-up on the brain. The proteins are thought to be the root of the disease. The drug is being developed by Elan pharmaceuticals and Rochester is one of the main test sites.
“This is very big news in my book,” says Dr. Porsteinsson, “we may be able to move earlier and earlier in the disease process and hopefully at one point or another prevent the onset of the disease.”
….
Even if it hits the market, this drug will never be available in pill form. It will either be given via IV every three months or injected just under the skin. The Phase 3 trial is already underway at 150 sites across the country. If you feel you are eligible or know someone who might be you can call: [phone].

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.335.344 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 17:47:48

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.335.520 von surga am 19.06.08 18:05:13

irre-oder?? Habe 500 Stück gerade für unsere Rundreise durch Thailand am Jahresende mit unseren 3 Kids verkauft (.....fühlte sich an wie die eigenen Kinder zur Adoption zu geben...schluchz:O),aber die anderen 93% des Bestands bleiben bis mindestens zur Markteifüheung unserer ALZ Blockbuster....

[noogmann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.550 von surga am 19.06.08 16:39:48

auch noch da

gruß noogmann

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.335.946 von noogmann am 19.06.08 18:55:54

na dann ist ja gut, ich dachte schon, ich wäre alleine auf verlassene Insel

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.335.595 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 18:14:06

Schön Birgit! Geniese es solange es noch geht

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.058 von surga am 19.06.08 19:11:58

Ja,habe ich mir auch gedacht....mein Liebster hatte wieder ziemlich heftige Gesundheitsprobleme in den letzten Tagen,ein Freund aus meinen Zeiten beiden Grünen vor 20 Jahren ist vor 3 Wochen einfach so gestorben(...ohne sich zu verabschieden...:O)und unsere 3 Jungs wollen auch gerne nochmal mit uns fahren----also musste ich mich mal von 500 Schätzen trennen (grrrrhhhhh.....)Komisch,wie die Zeit einen an diese Aktie so binden kann.....

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.101 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 19:18:53

nehme bitte diese Gelegenheit wahr. Die Zeit vergeht unheimlich schnell!
Wegen Bilder aus Indonesien, ich habe noch nicht geschaft zu sortieren. Ich habe nicht vergessen. Da Du Thailand kennst, landschaftlich ist nicht viel Unterschied.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.153 von surga am 19.06.08 19:25:39

.....lass Dir Zeit....würde mich aber sehr freuenBirgit

[Holgus]

Puuh ... bei der Entwicklung nehm ich meine frustige Äußerung von vorgestern doch glatt zurück.
War aber auch ätzend mitansehn zu müssen, wie Elan die Ergebnisse veröffentlicht, die Aktie 2 Dollar ansteigt und meine Optionen im gleichen Atemzug rund 50% an Wert verlieren.

Haben sich zum Glück wieder erholt ... freu

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.765 von Holgus am 19.06.08 20:58:41

Holgus, schön dass Du noch dabei bist . Ehrlich gesagt, wollte ich auch bei 29er verkaufen

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.765 von Holgus am 19.06.08 20:58:41

wo landen wir heute?

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.782 von surga am 19.06.08 21:01:59

weit oben.

(schaust Du kein Fußball?)

[surga]

die haben echt feuer hinter dem Hint??

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.775 von surga am 19.06.08 21:01:09

Nee Surga, verkauft hätte ich da noch nicht, dafür hat Elan dann doch zuviel Potenzial.
Aber das meine Optionen,die schon leicht im Plus standen, vorgestern so absemmelten, hat mir dann doch den Megafrust in die Birne getrieben.

Na zum Glück eben erholt.


Übrigens .... Diese portugisischen Bombenleger fahren heut Abend nach Hauuuuse

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.797 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 21:05:38

Poppi, ich bin kein Fussbalfans

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.855 von surga am 19.06.08 21:21:45

ich auch nicht....aber lustig ist es trotzdem---v.a.der UNMÖGLICHE Haarschitt von Günter Netzer......und wenn die Jungs sich freuen-können sie tatsächlich mal (zwar etwas eingeschränkt was die Variationen betrifft,aber immerhin)Gefühle zeigen...

32,30$!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.945 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 21:43:31

yeeeeepppppppppp, Gefühle zeigen ist nicht jederman Sache

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Mensch,wer hätte das gedacht heute?Ich nicht !!Sooooo klasse!!Schluss über 32$---wisst Ihr noch,wie es sich vor ein paar Wochen bei 17$ angefühlt hat????????????????Brrrrhh.....und WIR haben uns NICHT herausschütteln lassen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

W i r s i n d G U T !

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.337.053 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 22:09:00

wir sind richtig gut.

Das lange warten hat sich gelohnt.

Das es irgendwann so weit sein wird haben wir immer gewußt und auch nie ein Geheimnis daraus gemacht.

Hätte ja auch schon vor einem Jahr so hoch stehen können, aber wir sind ja geduldig

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.337.144 von Poppholz am 19.06.08 22:40:53

eben----und wo ist unser Sto....erer.....ähm,ich meine "Mehrfachversucher" bei unserem Triumph????...im Stadion???

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.337.168 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 22:48:07

Nu sag nich, Bernie ist tatsächlich unter die Stohohotterer gegangen ... da das kann ich n nich glauben

Als Kind sprach er noch ganz flüssig

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.337.220 von Holgus am 19.06.08 22:57:57

..jajaja---aber DANN kam das TRAUMA:O:O:O:O:O:O

[bernie55]

So jetzt ist das Fußballspiel vorbei

3:2 für Deutschland

32,10 für Elan

.. ob da eine Absprache gelaufen ist??? ....


im übrigen will ich noch eins sagen.

WIR SIND BESSER ALS RICHTIG GUT

32,10 USD = 20,71 € ( bei 1,55 ´Referenzkurs)


Bis morgen....
bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.337.404 von bernie55 am 19.06.08 23:38:58

...na,das wurde ja auch mal Zeit...wieder nix mit Mulitascing--bei mit liefen die Tore nebenbei...



hier was interessantes,das den Kursanstieg mit verurscht haben könnte....-Verdreifachung von Ty....holla

ELN msg # 244007 6/19/2008 4:34:16 PM
By: seaviewview bird

BIIB meeting and Tysabri

Per this BIIB post, discussion apparently involved ramping up production of Tysabri. This may have gotten lost in all the hoopla on BAP.

<...There was one pointed discussion about manufacturing capacity at the NC and Denmark plants and attempts to adopt new manufacturing practices that would triple capacity to make Tysabri...>

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...meinte :verursacht

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.336.855 von surga am 19.06.08 21:21:45

Poppi, ich bin kein Fussbalfans

..na ja....aber zumindest ELAN-Fan...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.337.484 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 19.06.08 23:53:30

...na,das wurde ja auch mal Zeit...wieder nix mit Mulitascing --bei mit liefen die Tore nebenbei...


Mulit-ascing = wieso soll ich den MULIT fragen ( ascing )??

bei mit = Wer ist MIT ???

liefen die Tore= Wieso liefen die Tore ???

...im übrigen lief bei mir das Bier ....und das durch Mund und Kehle....

.und nicht nebenbei, sondern in meinen Bauch....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.334.550 von surga am 19.06.08 16:39:48

seid Ihr alle noch an Board?

..aber sowas von " an Bord ".......border geht es nicht...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Die Geschichte von Elan---Irish times


Elan's share health improves but relapse is possible - Irish Times



Elan's share health improves but relapse is possible

Elan's shares have yet to recover all the ground they lost since their first major collapse in 2002, writes Dominic Coyle

INVESTORS IN Irish drug firm Elan could be forgiven for casting a somewhat sceptical eye at news this week that the group's share price had hit a five-year high following a series of positive announcements for the stock.

Better-than-expected headline figures from phase II clinical trials of a therapy for Alzheimer's disease that Elan is developing in association with US biotech giant Wyeth have seen the shares nudge $30 - a rise of 50 per cent in the past three months. And, despite the risks inherent in human drug development, analysts expect further gains in the share price over the rest of the year.

Elan is no stranger to false dawns and, even at this week's elevated levels, the company's shares have yet to recover all the ground they lost ahead of their first major collapse in 2002.

Alzheimer's disease has become something of a holy grail for the pharmaceutical industry, with as many as five million Alzheimer's patients in the US alone and an estimated 26 million worldwide.

More significantly, as the baby-boomer generation ages and modern medicine succeeds in keeping people alive for longer, scientists say that as much as half the population over the age of 85 will suffer from Alzheimer's.

Elan's pursuit with Wyeth and others of an effective treatment for the disease - and for other serious ailments such as multiple sclerosis - has seen its share price endure a rollercoaster ride, particularly over the past seven years.

To make matters worse, several of the share-price collapses have occurred just as the company has gained or regained credibility on the stock market.

Elan started life in 1969 as a drug-delivery business established by Don Panoz to facilitate the development of the technology behind the nicotine patch.

But it was during the stewardship of accountant Donal Geaney that the company was transformed. Geaney joined from KPMG in 1987 and, by 1995, he had become chief executive.

In March 1996, Geaney acquired a small Californian biotech company called Athena Neurosciences in an all-stock deal. Crucially, it was research being undertaken by Athena that provided the starting point for both the multiple sclerosis (MS) and Alzheimer's programmes on which Elan has since built its name.

However, for its shareholders, that path has been anything but smooth.

In January 2002, Elan had to stop a clinical trial for an Alzheimer's drug on which it and the market had pinned great hopes after signs of inflammation of the brain in some patients.

The shares had been falling back in line with the rest of the market in the wake of the bursting of the dotcom bubble, descending from from an all-time high of $65.

The adverse news knocked 14 per cent off the stock in one day and the shares continued to drift over the following fortnight.

By the end of January, they were down by 33 per cent since the Alzheimer's trial had been pulled.

Bad as that was, much worse was to come. On January 30th, 2002, the Wall Street Journal published an extensive piece raising questions about the accounting practices at Elan.

It wasn't the first time Elan's "aggressive" accounting had been queried. In 1999, the US regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), had raised a series of issues about Elan's numbers, especially in the area of research and development, where the company operated myriad joint ventures.

But by 2002, in the wake of the failed Alzheimer's trial and, more significantly, the collapse of US utilities giant Enron on the back of accounting irregularities, the market's reaction was severe.

Overnight, the value of Elan stock more than halved to $14.85. Geaney and his executive team tried to work through the crisis but investor sentiment was shot. By the time he resigned in the second week of July, the shares were trading at less than $2 - $63 below the level of just one year earlier.

Non-executive director Garo Armen stepped in as executive chairman and, with a new senior team, set about restructuring the business. Armen realised early on that any future the company had rested on a drug called Antegren, a prospective treatment for MS and, in the longer term, the group's Alzheimer's programme. Resources were concentrated on Antegren.

In early 2003, Armen hired Merrill Lynch banker Kelly Martin, a man with a track record in turning around troubled companies, to lead the group. Just six months later, more bad news emerged from a clinical trial - this time on use of MS drug Antegren as a treatment for the chronic bowel disorder, Crohn's disease.

Crohn's was always a secondary target for Antegren but, with investors scarred by previous adversity at Elan, the shares were hit hard, dropping more than 30 per cent in just two sessions.

In January 2004 the company and its US partner, Biogen, announced that results from clinical trials of Antegren as an MS treatment were sufficiently strong for them to file an application for approval of the drug a full year ahead of schedule.

The shares jumped by a third overnight and within a month had doubled to almost $20 - a level not seen in two years.

But within weeks of the drug, now called Tysabri, going on sale following US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval in November 2004, evidence of a potentially fatal brain disease had shown up in two patients. The drug was pulled from the market immediately.

Unsurprisingly, given Elan's history, the market was unforgiving and the shares fell overnight from $26.90 to $8. Among the losers was Patricia Martin, the Dublin-based widow of one of the earliest investors in Elan and the largest single retail investor in the business at that time. The value of her stock plummeted from €30.5 million to €7.25 million in a matter of hours.

But with fervent patient backing, Tysabri succeeded in getting the FDA to convene an advisory panel of experts in March 2006 to review the drug and, three months later, made history in becoming one of just a handful of drugs to return to market.

News in May 2007 that Elan was moving a series of Alzheimer's treatments to clinical trials saw shares jump again by a third to almost $20 - a level at which they were still trading in April 2008.

Expectations of good news on the Alzheimer's programme, together with strong sales of Tysabri, had already helped the stock advance in recent weeks.

The latest news on the success of one of those trials in treating a significant proportion of Alzheimer's patients sees its stock trading around the $30 level.

But long-term investors in Elan will be slow to count their chickens. Drug development remains a high-risk business and there is no certainty that the Alzheimer's programme will deliver. Even if it does, Elan faces intense competition from rivals chasing the same market.

[bernie55]

Composite Indicator

Trend Spotter TM Buy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy

Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy

20-Day Average Volume - 5486160

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 4612252

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy 100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy 100-Day Average Volume - 4268246

Overall Average: 100% - Buy

http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=ELN

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.339.536 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 11:12:59

ich glaube dass die meinen, dass man ELAN-Aktien ruhig kaufen könne.

[Poppholz]

sehr schöne Kursentwicklung die letzten drei Monate.

Würde mich auch interessieren, ob vor drei Monaten jemand wirklich seine Aktien verkauft hat oder ob das ein Werk der Shorties gewesen ist, dass der Kurs so nach unten gegangen ist.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.079 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 12:07:45

..sollte unsere ELAN wirklich bis 44/45 USD durchmaschieren ???

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.079 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 12:07:45

...guckt mal hier :http://www.erlebe-thailand.de/Thailand-Weihnachten-2008.htm

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.127 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 12:12:13

..vielleicht dann doch " konzertierte " Aktion der PBB Company ???

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.148 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 12:13:52

..bei 44/45 USD raus......und bei 35 USD wieder rein ????

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.137 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 20.06.08 12:13:15

...schschschschschschschschöööööööööööönnnnnnnnnnn...

[Poppholz]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.177 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 12:16:37

KLASSE!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.177 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 12:16:37

..................

[bernie55]

[Poppholz]

HappyYuppie.de

20.06.2008 11:38
Elan: 20 Euro-Marke überschritten
Elan überschreitet die 20 Euro Marke. Elan (News) wird am 27. Juni bei 21,08 Euro notieren.



http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2008-06/artikel-…

[bernie55]

....ein kleiner Artikel aus dem IV , nicht nur für HOLGER....


Just read Msworld

Many there starting Ty. When they do the others join the conversation. Most have great things to say. It appears that Tysabri is beginning to become the drug we all thought it would be. The inflection point is getting close. All we need is a time. There are 30,000 on drug now. Those patients are sharing their experiences with others. It has been nearly 2 full years and no PML has popped up. At this point it appears that things are full steam ahead. The next 6 months are going to be very good to Tysabri. Soon Tysabri will be a 1st line treatment.

AAB is a winner. It is the 1st treatment to ever to show stat sig in AD. Just how effective it is won't be clear to everyone until ICAD. There is a lot of speculation that we will get a rolling BLA in the next few months. Who knows if that will come true. One thing that is nearly 100% is that we will see approval in AD and be the 1st DMD for Alz. There are 5 mill people out there that can use this in the US alone. 2-3 mill of those will likely use it as soon as possible. That is revenue of $10 - 30 million depending on pricing. Add the EU and you will have another 10 - 30 mill.

With Nano hitting on all cylinders too we are looking at nothing but great things ahead.

The 50s and 60s are likely to happen in a relatively short period of time.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=244247&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.340.797 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 13:22:07

und noch ein kleiner Artikel aus dem IV , ebenfalls nicht nur für HOLGER


Share Price Targets - Time Frames
2008 : Realisation that Tysabri is going to be huge : $50
2009 : Speculation on subpart-E submission: $70
2010 : Bap Approval based on subpart-E for ApoE4 non-carriers : $100
2011 : Bap Approval for ApoE4 carriers: $130
2012 : Realisation that BAP is much bigger than crazy low-ball estimates: $200
2013 : Realisation that BAP is much bigger than last year's estimates: $250
2014 : Realisation that BAP is much bigger than last year's estimates: $300
2015 : Realisation that BAP is much bigger than last year's estimates: $350

I always get nervous when I am this euphoric, but I think these figures are doable given the scale of both the unmet medical need and the AD population size. As you can see, I am bit more conservative than Elmer.

Of course a buyout would short-circuit all this. KM is on record as saying "If it works, we'd be crazy to sell".

Though it's not entirely in his own hands, I'm hoping he can deliver on that thought..

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=244249&pt=…

[Poppholz]

die Reise geht weiter:

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.341.933 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 15:38:10

die Schwankungen sind schon heftig.

Wahrscheinlich versucht immer noch jemand den Kurs nach unten zu drücken.

(das gelingt aber nicht so richtig gut)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.342.905 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 17:06:07

Bei diesem Markt hält sich unser Schätzchen soooo super!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.342.905 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 17:06:07

.....was ich aktuell bei den Realtimekursen in den USA beobachte ist, dass sowohl auf der BID Seite als auch der ASK Seite immer wieder zwei bis vier uhrzeitgleiche Orders reingestellt werden.....

Wer ist da am wursteln ????

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.341.933 von Poppholz am 20.06.08 15:38:10

hoffentlich in Richtung 50er $. Ich möchte auch mal mit nach Thailand reisen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.343.611 von surga am 20.06.08 18:17:35

.....sind noch Plätze frei auf der Weihnachtsreise--könnten wir die 20
oder 30 Europarty dort feiern.........aber Du bist ja quasi eine "einheimische Pflanze"....

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.343.780 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 20.06.08 18:41:02

trotzdem, würde mich reizen dort Urlaub zu machen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.343.869 von surga am 20.06.08 18:50:44

[bernie55]

Schlusskurs: 32,95 USD
+0,85
+2,65 %

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.345.279 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 22:29:38

super!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.345.279 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 22:29:38

...das war eine Woche, auf die wir lange gewartet haben....

.....der Anfang ist gemacht.....

......grüner ging es nicht !!!!!! - >

..euch allen ein schönes Wochenende....

....bis dann....

Grüße bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.345.300 von bernie55 am 20.06.08 22:35:43

Hi Jungs!

Heute 2 Münsterland-Partys überlebt.....

zu unserem Schätzchen:jetzt können wir innerhalb der nächsten 1,5 Jahre die Ernte einfahren... Grüsse !Birgit

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

New clue to Alzheimer's found

By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer1 hour, 56 minutes ago

Researchers have uncovered a new clue to the cause of Alzheimer's disease. The brains of people with the memory-robbing form of dementia are cluttered with a plaque made up of beta-amyloid, a sticky protein. But there long has been a question whether this is a cause of the disease or a side effect. Also involved are tangles of a protein called tau; some scientists suspect this is the cause.

Now, researchers have caused Alzheimer's symptoms in rats by injecting them with one particular form of beta-amyloid. Injections with other forms of beta-amyloid did not cause illness, which may explain why some people have beta-amyloid plaque in their brains but do not show disease symptoms.

The findings by a team led by Dr. Ganesh M. Shankar and Dr. Dennis J. Selkoe of Harvard Medical School were reported in Sunday's online edition of the journal Nature Medicine.

The researchers used extracts from the brains of people who donated their bodies to medicine.

Forms of soluble beta-amyloid containing different numbers of molecules, as well as insoluble cores of the brain plaque, were injected into the brains of mice. There was no detectable effect from the insoluble plaque or the soluble one-molecule or three-molecule forms, the researchers found.

But the two-molecule form of soluble beta-amyloid produced characteristics of Alzheimer's in the rats, they reported.

Those rats had impaired memory function, especially for newly learned behaviors. When the mouse brains were inspected, the density brain cells was reduced by 47 percent with the beta-amyloid seeming to affect synapses, the connections between cells that are essential for communication between them.

The research, for the first time, showed the effect of a particular type of beta-amyloid in the brain, said Dr. Marcelle Morrison-Bogorad, director of the division of neuroscience at the National Institute on Aging, which helped fund the research.

It was surprising that only one of the three types had an effect, she said in a telephone interview.

Morrison-Bogorad said the findings may help explain the discovery of plaque in the brains of people who do not develop dementia. For some time, doctors have wondered why they find some brains in autopsy that are heavily coated with beta-amyloid, but the person did not have Alzheimer's.

The answer may lie in the two types of beta-amyloid that did not cause symptoms.

Now, the question is why one has the damaging effect and not others.

"A lot of work needs to be done," Morrison-Bogorad said. "Nature keeps sending us down paths that look straight at the beginning, but there are a lot of curves before we get to the end."

Dr. Richard J. Hodes, director of the National Institute on Aging, said that "while more research is needed to replicate and extend these findings, this study has put yet one more piece into place in the puzzle that is Alzheimer's."

In addition to the Institute on Aging, the research was funded by Science Foundation Ireland, Wellcome Trust, the McKnight and Ellison foundations and the Lefler Small Grant Fund.

___

On the Net:

Nature Medicine: http://www.nature.com/naturemedicine

National Institute on Aging: http://www.nia.nih.gov

[Poppholz]

dann bin ich ja mal gespannt, wie es nächste Woche weiter geht.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.350.307 von Poppholz am 22.06.08 23:05:40

Elan added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy list .

6Months target up to USD 45 from 34,20


"We view the phase 2 data announcement as an inflection point, which could catalyse other strategic initiatives for the group. We add Elan to our Conviction Buy List "

Very positive note from GS dated today June 23rd . I think this will further rise interest from new investors. We could see 35 very fast.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=245052&pt=…

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.352.142 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 11:27:58

$45,- in den nächsten 6 Monaten würde uns allen wohl sehr gelegen kommen.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.352.881 von Poppholz am 23.06.08 13:01:15

dann hätte Birgit wohl auch noch ein wenig warten sollen mit dem "Weihnachtsreisenverkauf".

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.352.887 von Poppholz am 23.06.08 13:02:00

..ich denke,wir als PBB Company werden wohl nie den richtigen Ausstiegspunkt treffen....

...zumindest haben wir bei unseren Einstiegskursen sehr gut getroffen.....

[bernie55]

..so dann mal los ELAN.......

Pre-Market
Last: $ 33.40

Pre-Market
High: $ 33.40
Pre-Market
Volume: 2,810
Pre-Market
Low: $ 33.05

Pre-Market
Time (ET) Pre-Market
Price Pre-Market
Share Volume
07:23 $ 33.40 500
07:22 $ 33.26 500
06:30 $ 33.26 500
06:30 $ 33.26 500
06:19 $ 33.05 810

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.224 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 13:42:26

sage mal Bernie, was bedeutet denn PBB
Auf indonesisch bedeutet Perserikatan Bangsa Bangsa, auf deutsch UNO mit dem Sitz in New York

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.422 von surga am 23.06.08 14:06:27

sage mal Bernie, was bedeutet denn PBB .....

P= Poppie
B= Bernie55
B= Birgit

....haben seit der Gründung unserer Company im Angesicht unseres Schweißes viel Pionier- und Aufklärungsarbeit in Sache ELAN geleistet....

..und der Kursverlauf gibt es uns doch recht, oder ????....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.500 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 14:15:59

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.507 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 14:16:43

[bernie55]

New clue to Alzheimer's found in form of protein
By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID (AP Science Writer)
From Associated Press

June 22, 2008 2:16 PM EDT
WASHINGTON - Researchers have uncovered a new clue to the cause of Alzheimer's disease. The brains of people with the memory-robbing form of dementia are cluttered with a plaque made up of beta-amyloid, a sticky protein. But there long has been a question whether this is a cause of the disease or a side effect. Also involved are tangles of a protein called tau; some scientists suspect this is the cause.

Now, researchers have caused Alzheimer's symptoms in rats by injecting them with one particular form of beta-amyloid. Injections with other forms of beta-amyloid did not cause illness, which may explain why some people have beta-amyloid plaque in their brains but do not show disease symptoms.

The findings by a team led by Dr. Ganesh M. Shankar and "Dr. Dennis J. Selkoe" of Harvard Medical School were reported in Sunday's online edition of the journal Nature Medicine.

The researchers used extracts from the brains of people who donated their bodies to medicine.

Forms of soluble beta-amyloid containing different numbers of molecules, as well as insoluble cores of the brain plaque, were injected into the brains of mice. There was no detectable effect from the insoluble plaque or the soluble one-molecule or three-molecule forms, the researchers found.

But the two-molecule form of soluble beta-amyloid produced characteristics of Alzheimer's in the rats, they reported.

Those rats had impaired memory function, especially for newly learned behaviors. When the mouse brains were inspected, the density brain cells was reduced by 47 percent with the beta-amyloid seeming to affect synapses, the connections between cells that are essential for communication between them.

The research, for the first time, showed the effect of a particular type of beta-amyloid in the brain, said Dr. Marcelle Morrison-Bogorad, director of the division of neuroscience at the National Institute on Aging, which helped fund the research.

It was surprising that only one of the three types had an effect, she said in a telephone interview.

Morrison-Bogorad said the findings may help explain the discovery of plaque in the brains of people who do not develop dementia. For some time, doctors have wondered why they find some brains in autopsy that are heavily coated with beta-amyloid, but the person did not have Alzheimer's.

The answer may lie in the two types of beta-amyloid that did not cause symptoms.

Now, the question is why one has the damaging effect and not others.

"A lot of work needs to be done," Morrison-Bogorad said. "Nature keeps sending us down paths that look straight at the beginning, but there are a lot of curves before we get to the end."

Dr. Richard J. Hodes, director of the National Institute on Aging, said that "while more research is needed to replicate and extend these findings, this study has put yet one more piece into place in the puzzle that is Alzheimer's."

In addition to the Institute on Aging, the research was funded by Science Foundation Ireland, Wellcome Trust, the McKnight and Ellison foundations and the Lefler Small Grant Fund



http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=245028&pt=…

[bernie55]

GS on strategic considerations for Wyeth and other co.s

" If Bapineuzumab has the potential we forecast, the obvious question for investors is whether 50-50 partner Wyeth could or should acquire Elan. There are two potential hurdles for Wyeth, in our view. First, there are some-unspecified-circumstances as part of the agreement under which Wyeth cannot acquire Elan before 2010. Second, there is a change of control provision in Elan's 50-50 joint venture with Biogen IDEC on Tysabri which may deter Wyeth from attempting to acquire Elan. However, in our view, one way that Wyeth- or any other pharma company interested in gaining some of the upside from Bapineuzumab-could benefit disproportionately, is to acquire a sizeable minority stake in Elan. "

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.500 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 14:15:59

soooooooo.........sooooooooooooooooooo
P= Poppie
B= Bernie55
B= Birgit

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.841 von surga am 23.06.08 14:53:04

..... PBB könnte noch Verstärkung brauchen....

...sollten vielleicht mal über eine LONGIE- Erweiterung sprechen.....

z.B. PBB(S)....

..muss natürlich noch mit dem Vorstand abgesprochen werden.....

..aber ich als " SUPERLONGIE" hätte nichts dagegen......

[bernie55]

vorbörslich REALTIME USA

> 33,75 - 33,97 <

[bernie55]

..ein guter Start in die Woche...


> Elan added to Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy list .
6Months target up to USD 45 from 34,20

> New clue to Alzheimer's found in form of protein......hattest du ja auch schon gepostet, Birgit...
Now, researchers have caused Alzheimer's symptoms in rats by injecting them with one particular form of beta-amyloid. Injections with other forms of beta-amyloid did not cause illness, which may explain why some people have beta-amyloid plaque in their brains but do not show disease symptoms.

The findings by a team led by Dr. Ganesh M. Shankar and "Dr. Dennis J. Selkoe" of Harvard Medical School were reported in Sunday's online edition of the journal Nature Medicine.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.945 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:06:02

ich bin ein LONGIE, seit 2005 dabei

[bernie55]

33,80 - 33,89

..ist das jetzt SHORTIE-Verbrennen oder die GS News ????

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.073 von surga am 23.06.08 15:20:52

....das hören wir doch gerne....

...... das wichtigste Aufnahmekriterien schon einmal erfüllt....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.081 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:21:07

SHORTIE-Verbrennung ist natürlich ein Punkt, der zur Zeit mit ins Gewicht fällt.

Auf der anderen Seite ist die Verbindung zu Wyeth mit den damit verbundenen News endlich mal bei einer breiteren Masse an Investoren auf dem Bildschirm gelangt.

In der Vergangenheit haben gute News den SHORTIEs immer in die Karten gespielt.

Das Spiel ging auch viel zu lange.

[Poppholz]

vorbörslich über $34,-

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.081 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:21:07

.....ist das jetzt SHORTIE-Verbrennen oder die GS News ????

Hello! MY name George. I am an ELN short and I am in a world of trouble!!!

..die Jungs sollen mal sowas von abtroubeln.....

33,95 - 34,00

[Poppholz]

wann laufen die nächsten Optionen aus?

Holgie, da bist Du doch wieder investiert, oder nicht?

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.140 von Poppholz am 23.06.08 15:27:08

.....endlich mal bei einer breiteren Masse an Investoren auf dem Bildschirm gelangt.


YEPP !!!!!!!

[bernie55]

34,30 USD -34,35 USD
34,30 USD -34,35 USD
34,30 USD -34,35 USD
34,30 USD -34,35 USD
34,30 USD -34,35 USD
34,30 USD -34,35 USD
34,30 USD -34,35 USD

[bernie55]

34,68 USD !!!!!

[bernie55]

35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD
35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD 35 USD

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.378 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:47:50

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!OOOOOHHHMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.391 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:48:48

......so, dann lassen wir ELAN mal machen...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.405 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:50:06

Wahnsinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.472 von surga am 23.06.08 15:55:42

...mehr als Wahnssssiinnnnnnnn!!!!!!

[bernie55]

..ich bin mal gespannt, welchen Schlusskurs wir heute erreichen ????


?? > 34 - 35 < ??

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.563 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 16:04:06

und Ende dieser Woche

und Ende diesen Jahres

und Ende nächsten Jahres

So viele Spannende Termine!!!

[noogmann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.189 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 15:32:11

gruß noogmann

[Poppholz]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.353.841 von surga am 23.06.08 14:53:04

Surga--ich möchte gerne dass Du unser Longie-Klebatt komplett machst---also PBBS[/ -ansonsten bin ich nur kurz hier weil ich meinem Freund wieder stark beistehen will;er hat wieder gesundh.problems....

Aber über unser Elanschätzchen freuen wir uns doch Alle zusammen!



PS.Holgus--mir fehlt Dein Gemecker....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 245235 6/23/2008 12:03:54 PM
By: apclrk

S & P Reiterates Buy Raises Target to $41

SNPMarketScope ResearchNotes 2008-06-23 11:31:44.000 ELNELAN CORP ADSJ.Englander-CFA S&P REITERATES BUY RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF ELAN CORP After further review, we raise our target price by $9 to $41 on a more favorable view of bapineuzamab for Alzheimer's and lower overall risk to the ELN story. Preliminary data showed clinical efficacy in only non-ApoE4 patients, but we expect release of full results in late July will also show positive signals in the ApoE4-positive patient sub-group. Our target price is based on a NPV of 6.4X risk-adjusted '17 sales forecasts, a multiple we think is justified, as ELN has 2 potentially $1B+ biotech drugs: 1 on the market and 1 in its pipeline. |US;ELN|1429


Das ganze Analystenpack kommt mir vor wie eine Prostituiertengilde...jetzt finden sie uns alle toll + vorher ....:O

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.355.970 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 23.06.08 18:11:47

Danke!!!!!!!! Danke!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Und Deinem Freund wünsche ich eine gute Besserung

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.356.166 von surga am 23.06.08 18:38:17

gerne!

Danke für die Genesungswünsche

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

AP
ADRs in Focus: Elan climbs to 6-year high
Monday June 23, 12:32 pm ET
Elan sets 6-year high on Goldman comment; Cowen doubts chances of rival's Alzheimer's drug

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Irish drug maker Elan Corp. PLC hit a six-year high Monday as one analyst predicted success for its Alzheimer's disease treatment bapineuzumab, and another voiced skepticism about a rival drug.

Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen McGarry made Elan stock a Conviction Buy, and raised his six-month price target to $45 per share from $34.20. He expects the company to share complete data from a mid-stage trial of bapineuzumab later this month, and said it could lift the stock.

Elan and U.S. partner Wyeth released early data from that trial on Tuesday. The results showed that patients lacking a certain gene may benefit from the drug, which is designed to prevent a compound called beta-amyloid 42 from forming plaques that can inhibit thinking and memory.

Between 40 and 70 percent of Alzheimer's patients may lack that gene.

McGarry added that the drug could be effective as a preventative treatment for Alzheimer's in addition to treating the disease itself.

Shares gained $1.37, or 4.2 percent, to $34.32 and earlier in the session peaked at $35.50. That was their highest price since January 2002. Elan stock trades as ADRs, or American Depositary Receipts, which are securities that allow U.S. investors to trade shares of companies based overseas.

Analyst Ian Sanderson of Cowen and Co. was less optimistic about a drug candidate from Myriad Genetics Corp. called Flurizan. He said Myriad should report the results of a late trial of Flurizan this week, but he does not think the drug will be clinically effective against the disease.

Sanderson said there is a less than 20 percent chance of Flurizan reaching the goals of the trial, and he does not think a separate, international trial will be successful either.

Myriad stock dipped $1.22, or 2.4 percent, to $48.80. Since Wyeth and Elan reported the trial data for bapineuzumab, the shares have gained 10.3 percent.

Wyeth stock added 31 cents to $48.16.

[bernie55]

Guten Morgen


Irish Independent

Elan soars in Alzheimer boost
By Ailish O'Hora


Tuesday June 24 2008

Shares in drugmaker Elan finished up over 5pc yesterday after investment bank Goldman Sachs increased its target price to $45 from $34.20 and added the company to its conviction buy-list based on the company's potential in the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease. The shares closed at €21.94.

The treatment Bapineuzumab, which is co-developed by Wyeth, is effective in the treatment of Alzheimer's and may also be effective in pre-Alzheimer's disease conditions, providing an entry into the prophylactic market.

"We view the presentation of the Bapineuzumab phase II data at the ICAD meeting on July 29 as the most significant near-term catalyst for the stock," Goldman said.

Last week shares in Elan gained the most in three years after it said, along with Wyeth, that the treatment helped some patients in a new test.

Bapineuzumab was found to increase the cognitive ability for people without a gene known as ApoE4, a group that comprises as many as 70pc of Alzheimer sufferers, the companies said. The product is in the final stages of testing for regulatory approval.

- Ailish O'Hora

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=245546&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.354.563 von bernie55 am 23.06.08 16:04:06

..ich bin mal gespannt, welchen Schlusskurs wir heute erreichen ????


?? > 34 - 35 < ??


Detailed Quote for Elan Corp. plc (ELN)

$ 34.56

1.61 (+4.89%)

Volume: 12.25 m 16:04 EDT 23.06.2008

[bernie55]

..gestern telefonisch beschlossen...heute öffentlich gemacht...


> a new four-leaf company is born <

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.358.892 von bernie55 am 24.06.08 08:25:53

Hallo Surga,

auch von mir ein herzliches Willkommen im Club.

Ich bestelle dann schon mal die neuen Türschilder.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.359.187 von Poppholz am 24.06.08 09:14:39

Mädel und Jungs

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.358.892 von bernie55 am 24.06.08 08:25:53

dankeeeeeeeee

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.359.187 von Poppholz am 24.06.08 09:14:39

Ich bestelle dann schon mal die neuen Türschilder.



...aber Hallo, Poppie,...da wären noch...


der neue Schreibtisch

der neue Bürosessel

der neue Internetanschluss

die neue Kaffeetasse

das neue Klo

..und.....und......und......


zu beschriften mit PBBS > natürlich alles in ELAN-grün ....

[bernie55]

Look at the "silent majority" who own a goodly amount of Elan shares

Fidelity 71M shares
Wellington 43M
Capital 20M
Westfield 17M
Jennison 14M
PriceTRowe13M
Tudor 10M
BK. Ireland 7M
Invus Pub 7M
CRIntrinsic 7M

> PBBS - xx K .......ab APRIL 2005 eingesammelt...


These 11 own almost 50% of the float. They have amassed this stock primarily since the reapproval of Tysabri in 2006, much of it in 2007.

[bernie55]

Davy Starting Points

Elan Corp
Next AD newsflow to come from Myriad Genetics
Price $34.56 Target: $31.00 Issued: 18/06/08 Previous: $25.50 Issued: 23/01/08
As we continue to digest Bapineuzumab’s promising top-line Phase II data, Myriad Genetics is expected to announce Phase III data on its own AD prospect, Flurizan.These data are expected this week.
Flurizan is a gamma secretase modulator – that is, it attempts to partly inhibit the function of this particular enzyme so that beta amyloid production can be reduced.
Full inhibition of this enzyme has had implications for other systemic functions that have proved very difficult to overcome. Myriad is conducting two Phase III studies, and is reporting on the 1,684-patient US trial imminently.
In Phase II, Flurizan did not meet statistical significance in mild-to-moderate AD,but did show positive trends in post-hoc analyses of the mild AD patient subset.Further analysis found statistical significance for two functional endpoints, in mild AD patients who also had high blood concentrations of the drug. The cognitive improvement over placebo, though favourable, was modest and not statistically significant.

On balance, we believe Bapineuzumab offers more promising and clinically significant efficacy signals, based on the top-line data released last week. Indeed, both products may have complementary mechanisms of action:Flurizan to inhibit production, and Bapineuzumab to clear existing amyloid.

The stakes are obviously very high for Myriad given that this will be a Phase III result. Expectations, as reflected in Myriad’s share price performance, have been set reasonably low: the stock is only up 6.7% year-to-date — though that conceals a near-45% rebound since early March. But in a nascent commercial AD market,any reasonable efficacy signals, combined with a benign safety profile, could offer approval potential for this and other products.


http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/morningrep/download/0624davy…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

By Ailish O'Hora

Tuesday June 24 2008

Shares in drugmaker Elan finished up over 5pc yesterday after investment bank Goldman Sachs increased its target price to $45 from $34.20 and added the company to its conviction buy-list based on the company's potential in the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease. The shares closed at €21.94.

The treatment Bapineuzumab, which is co-developed by Wyeth, is effective in the treatment of Alzheimer's and may also be effective in pre-Alzheimer's disease conditions, providing an entry into the prophylactic market.

"We view the presentation of the Bapineuzumab phase II data at the ICAD meeting on July 29 as the most significant near-term catalyst for the stock," Goldman said.

Last week shares in Elan gained the most in three years after it said, along with Wyeth, that the treatment helped some patients in a new test.

Bapineuzumab was found to increase the cognitive ability for people without a gene known as ApoE4, a group that comprises as many as 70pc of Alzheimer sufferers, the companies said. The product is in the final stages of testing for regulatory approval.

- Ailish O'Hora

[Poppholz]

Pfizer Makes a Deal, Wyeth and Elan Release Alzheimer's Drug Results
by: Mike Huckman posted on: June 24, 2008

Last week, Pfizer (PFE) made a major announcement regarding the world's top-selling statin, Lipitor. Pfizer struck a deal with the Indian generic drugmaker Ranbaxy to ward off the threat of generic competition for Lipitor until late 2011. I know there were a lot of market pressures last week, but how frustrating must it have been for Pfizer Chairman and CEO Jeff Kindler and his team to negotiate that agreement only to see the stock go up a whole nickel that day on the news? Five cents.

The market reacted much more positively last week to the mid-stage test results Wyeth (WYE) and Elan (ELN) released on their Alzheimer's drug bapineuzumab. I'm never gonna call it that on air; many analysts have taken to calling it "Bap" or "Bappy" for short. I'll have an opportunity to talk about it toward the end of next month at the International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease where researchers will be presenting the detailed data.

ELN is traded at a new high Monday morning, after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its "Conviction Buy" list.

Next up on the beat is the Food and Drug Administration decision on Eli Lilly's (LLY) bloodthinner Effient. It's expected to come this Thursday. If the agency approves the drug, that could have a negative effect on Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), which market the top-selling bloodthinner Plavix.

And one more thing. While I was out, billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn entered the blogosphere. Welcome, Carl. I look forward to reading entries on his biotech forays. Meantime, we're still waiting for Biogen Idec (BIIB) to announce the actual tally from Icahn's failed proxy fight last week to put his people on the BIIB Board. Could it have been close? We should find out in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing within the next few weeks.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/82406-pfizer-makes-a-deal-wy…

[Poppholz]

da will es aber einer wissen.

Kursdrückerei!!!



Mal schauen, wie viel Energie er hat.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

.....war zu erwarten-----heisst aber nichts....

[bernie55]

aktuell immer pendelnd zwischen 33,96 USD und 34,05 USD......

...supi....ELAN kann ruhig auf dieser Ebene mal " durchpusten "...
...die letzten Tage waren aber auch wirklich anstrengend....

..immer bergauf.....bergauf....bergauf.....und das ohne Verschnaufpausen....

[Cyberhexe]

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=eln

Short Interest (Shares Short) 26,828,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.4
Short Percent of Float 5.79 %
Short Interest - Prior 26,836,500
Short % Increase / Decrease -0.03 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ 28

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.365.864 von Cyberhexe am 24.06.08 19:39:22

..dann wirds mal Zeit, dass urplötzlich aus dem Walde........ wieder einen überraschende News kommt z.B.....

WYETH ???LILLY ????PFIZER??? bietet für ELAN Aktie 45 USD....

..die Shorties sollen sich so richtig die Füße verbrennen....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Moin,ähm...gut´s Nächtle...

ELN msg # 245744 6/24/2008 4:27:22 PM
By: jivetalkin03

Things

Hello all,

Things are really starting to heat up.

Its nice to see Sab and Berk and Stars all prepping us for what could lie ahead. So heres how I see it possibly playing out from a strictly emotional point of view. As I've been saying for quite some time now I think we could still see an early sub part e filing based on the P2 data and a peek at the interim on P3. This reality is now just starting to spread around and sink into the minds of GS and a few other major players who know the story.

Hey some think that we max out here shortly price wise and then basically lay dormant thru years end. Maybe thats true, this is Elan after all. Anything is possible I guess. But heres how I see it playing out in the near term. I think that we will continue our upward climb and approach GS new target before ICAD. Once we get to ICAD and the world gets to read the conclusions from the data I believe we will then go totally parabolic. Possibly taking out our old all time highs.

Im not a chartist just a semi realist and if things fall into place and clarity prevails then all bets are off. The Monte Carlo simulation mode that LS uses will need another roll. The latest GS estimates have set market penetration at 1 million. They know that is an extremely conservative number. So aside from the future upgrades that ive been calling for i also expect to see some massive recalibrating of future revenue numbers to be refactored into our pps.

Am i dreaming, maybe. But remember all this stuff that lies ahead in the near term is NOT affected by the FDA or any such pending PDUFA date. It is merely 20 years worth of mind numbing research coming to a head. There is nothing to fear but the truth itself now. I'm not afraid of. Not after searching outside of this vacuum for validation that the approach and the treatment works. Now its proof of concept. Shortly the details will reveal itself.

So ask yourself these questions. How big is this drug to Elan's future? How much of an impact will this drug have on the world's population? How important is this drug to the image of the FDA? In all three cases the answer is transformational. Think of the Alzheimer epidemic as a global firestorm that needs to be doused out immediately. If not, it will consume our global society and our own healthcare system with it.

Its not just a disease that effects the one person afflicted by it. The whole family tree is shaken and uprooted. Jobs are lost and careers put on hold to care for loved ones who slip slide away into darkness. This isnt a minor ripple effect in the pool of life but a tsunami that alters everything in its wake. That type of toll isnt even factored into the financial costs associated with AD.

So its that important. KM said, 'First to the finish line wins'. Not expecting much out of Flurizan, if anything at all. Our closest competitor it seems is ourselves. With Lilly's Gmma Secretase program. After that all we have going for us are the 7 other drugs we'll have in P3 in 2010. Tau is tangled up in blue for now. Its no biggie really. We only have the franchise to the mind locked up in countless patents for years to come.

AAB works quickly and safely. Thats a major plus in my book. These seminar things I go to are all way out of my league and totally beyond my range. I'm lucky if I can catch every third or fourth word they say. Its like trying to follow a joke in a foreign language. But occasionally they'll say something like, 'once it dissolves into the body it reaches the brain within 15 minutes. Do you have any idea how long it took to see cognitive improvement once it reaches the brain?? After an extended pause a guy like Dr Jacobsen says, 'Try two hours'.... So one thing is clear to me. This drug works. Its also works fast and clean. So as I scan thru some of the notebooks filled with cat scratch notes all I can say is that all signs point North. We have a winner.

Its all there for us. The need, the drug, the demand. 20 years of hard core science about to be unleashed.

Good Luck Longs,

Jive

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Wyeth has STARTED the International Phase 3 trials for Bapineuzumab. Link Posted
http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00667810?term=AAB-001&…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 245781 6/24/2008 6:32:19 PM
By: foolishcase Toller Beitrag über das ,worum es hier wirklich geht...

Bapineuzumab, Why it’s not business, it’s personal.

This is not, in the end, about economics, or politics, or bureaucratic wrangling.

This is about base level emotions and basic survival.

This is not another Lipitor, not another drug for incontinence or fungal infections or a me too drug for impotence. This drug addresses deep and basic fears.

How many have seen “B” horror movies where a person all of a sudden becomes “different”.

Invasion of body snatchers.

Night of the living dead.

These were terrifying to me when I was a kid. This is now Terrifying to us boomers.

Shoulda doesn’t tell whole story. Nice people turn into abusive incoherent violent strangers. Others simply evaporate before our eyes in a very short period of time. It always progresses; there is nothing to stop it, no intervention, no hope.

This is not like the start of the AIDs epidemic where only a few mostly anonymous were suffering, where the news media had to bring the suffering and plight to us. Where out of compassion for those we didn’t know we petitioned congress, the FDA to bring treatments to market in accelerated fashion. Unlike AIDs, most everyone age 50+ has had personal contact with AD, close family, neighbor, friend. This is personal.

It’s terrifying to look into someone’s eyes who has been father or mother, grandmother or grandfather and see no recognition, though they try to play along. End stage visits where they’re in a wheel chair tied so that they don’t fall out, no personality, lump of flesh that has to be fed by hand or end stage by IV. You feel guilt, as you want the end to come so you can have closure and they can be released, but the body isn’t that bad off and continues to live on. And you continue on dreading your own mortality, because statistically this is very likely going to happen to you unless something less horrifying comes along and takes you first. Or worse, you know this runs in your family and it IS going to happen to you, likely sooner than later. You’re terrified, but try to pretend it doesn’t exist and you try to whistle your way past the graveyard, but you know once it starts it’s a long spiral down, and there’s nothing you can do to stop it.

A working drug for Alzheimer’s will be a paradigm shift for society.

The News that there is now a working therapy for Alzheimer’s that can keep the disease at bay or stabilize further progression will be on everyone’s lips. It will run in all the media, it will be discussed by everyone.

How much would you pay to keep the zombies off your doorstep? How much would you pay to keep from becoming a zombie? What political pressure would you bring to bear in order to get life sustaining treatment that would keep you “you”?

There is no way the timelines analysts are throwing out will be followed.

I think this is going to be bigger than any of us can visualize, and happen faster than any of the market cynics could believe.

This will be the ride of my life.

Case

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.368.309 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 08:13:53

das haben die doch schon ende April 2008 gemacht.

Das war doch so "besonders", dass die mit der Phase III gestartet sind ohne die endgültigen Ergebnisse der Phase II vorliegen zu haben.

(oder nicht?)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.368.532 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 08:55:01

Elan JA,Wyeth war etwas langsamer!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.368.731 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 09:19:22

so schließt sich der Kreis.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.368.309 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 08:13:53

Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Bapineuzumab in Alzheimer Disease Patients

This study is currently recruiting participants.

Verified by Wyeth, June 2008


> study details as provided by Wyeth:


Primary Outcome Measures:
Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale; Disability Assessment for Dementia [ Time Frame: 78 weeks ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]



Secondary Outcome Measures:
Neuropsychological Test Battery; Clinical Dementia Rating Scale [ Time Frame: 78 Weeks ] [ Designated as safety issue: No ]


Estimated Enrollment: 1250
Study Start Date: May 2008
Estimated Study Completion Date: April 2011
Estimated Primary Completion Date: April 2011 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)



>Arms >Assigned Interventions
A: Experimental Drug: bapineuzumab
B: Experimental Drug: bapineuzumab
C: Experimental Drug: bapineuzumab
D: Placebo Comparator Drug: placebo


http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00667810?term=AAB-001&…

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.368.863 von bernie55 am 25.06.08 09:34:13

Ende der Studie ist April 2011.

Dann wird diese noch ausgewertet.

Somit würde eine Einführung 2012 möglich sein?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.369.424 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 10:22:07

Nein Poppi--wir spekulieren auf ein "early filling" nach 6 Monaten Ph3 mit 1000 Patienten....würde bedeuten Zulassung Herbst 2009...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.370.498 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 11:54:37

mir kam das auch schon sehr "weit weg" vor.

Allerdings wäre ich auch bereit bis Ende 2012 zu warten, oder sogar noch länger.



(für eine ordentliche Rente)

[Poppholz]

sieht nach einem Start über der $34,- Marke aus.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.033 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 14:28:33

....Du willst Die eben einen eletrischen Rolli leisten,gelle.....

[Poppholz]

schaut Euch den Link mal an.

ich werde hieraus nicht so ganz schlau.

Meine Vermutung: Goldman Sachs hat ordentlich ELAN Aktien gekauft.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200806251012464…

oder wie ist das zu verstehen?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.119 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 14:36:11

si senor....--bevor er unser Kursziel auf 45 Dollar erhöht hat....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.119 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 14:36:11

anscheinend haben die jetzt über 4% der Aktien (ca. 20.000.000 Stück)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.100 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 14:34:36

von der Kohle lasse ich mich einfach "von Grund auf restaurieren".

In 30 bis 40 Jahren gibt es bestimmt schon ein richtiges "Shopping-Center" für Organe und Extremitäten.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.178 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 14:41:39

---aber dann ist nachher nichts mehr von DIR übrig.....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.243 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 14:48:15

mein Gehirn wird ja mit den Medikamenten von ELAN auf dem Stand eines 30-jährigen bleiben.

[Poppholz]

Für den Start:

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.657 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 15:26:42

doch rot.

(menno)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.372.486 von Poppholz am 25.06.08 15:11:37

!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.373.610 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 16:42:28

unruhige schöne U Kurve

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.374.617 von surga am 25.06.08 18:06:05

yepp!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Back on track


Research Brief: Elan/Wyeth Vaccine Back on Track
http://www.alzforum.org/new/detail.asp?id=1859


24 June 2008. Clinical testing of ACC-001, Elan’s second-generation Aβ vaccine, is back on track following a temporary suspension several weeks ago (see ARF related news story). In consultation with the FDA, Elan and Wyeth had suspended dosing after one patient developed a serious adverse event—then deemed to be vasculitis, or inflammation of the blood vessels, by onsite investigators. According to Andrew Lewis, Elan’s Director of Corporate Communications, the FDA lifted the hold after reviewing information furnished by the companies. They are now reinitiating dosing and recruitment (see ClinicalTrials.gov).
Elan’s first attempt at vaccine therapy failed when a small number of patients developed meningoencephalitis (see ARF related news story). This second-generation vaccine was designed to avoid inflammatory responses, and it is not quite clear what happened to that one patient with the adverse reaction. Subsequent biopsy and analysis showed that it was not vasculitis, according to Lewis, but the company had no further information to share at this time. Alzforum will continue to monitor trial progress and bring further updates as they become available.—Tom Fagan.

[bernie55]

ELAN

USD 34,74
+0,90
+2,66 %

..also,doch noch die Kurve gekriegt.....hätte ich nicht für möglich gehalten.....

..leider hat sich mein Notebook gestern " technisch" verabschiedet..

...mein Freund kommt heute nachmittag vorbei und wird es hoffentlich wieder in Ordnung bringen..

...let`s hope together...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.378.541 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 11:10:29

Kursentwicklung ist sehr schön gewesen.

Allerdings hätte ich mich über einen grünen Start auch gefreut.



Die Shorties dürften bald in Zugzwang kommen, ganz egal, ob die jetzt nach 13 Tagen oder nach 13 Wochen die Positionen glatt stellen müssen.

Vielleicht reicht denen auch die Zockerei an einzelnen Tagen.

(für mich wäre das nichts, viel zu anstrengend)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.378.602 von Poppholz am 26.06.08 11:17:19

Allerdings hätte ich mich über einen grünen Start auch gefreut.

...sei nicht so gierig , Poppie......hauptsache unsere PBBS Company wächst und gedeiht....
...und denk daran, wir hatten auch schon mal so richtige " Durststrecken "....


Die Shorties dürften bald in Zugzwang kommen, ganz egal, ob die jetzt nach 13 Tagen oder nach 13 Wochen die Positionen glatt stellen müssen.

....la..la..la......wir woll`n sie brennen sehen........wir woll`n sie brennen sehen....

[bernie55]

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 6542406

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 4930272

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 4445467

Overall Average: 96% - Buy

http://www.tradingday.com/tbs.html?http://quotes.barchart.co…

[bernie55]

Tysabri:Another patient out of the wheelchair
From a German ms board:

40yr.old lady asking questions about TY, which was recommended to her by a prof.
The pml issue - obviously had not been addressed thoroughly enough
and had left the woman in fear -

There are great answers in this thread, here is one -
the ps.-section might be of interest....



01.06.2008, 19:15

Hallo xxxxx !

Ich bin 26 und habe seit drei Jahren MS. Ich kann dir nur sagen, dass ich die gleichen Bedenken wie du am Anfang der Therapie mit Tysabri hatte. Nur bei mir gab es nicht mehr wirklich viele möglichkeiten, da ich in den ersten 2 Jahren 9 Schübe hatte (trotz Interferone) und im Rollstuhl sitzen musste.
Für mich steht fest das Tysabri mich da wieder rausgeholt hat. Ich hatte im letzten Jahr nur einen kleinen Schub und mittlerweile sieht man mir auch nicht mehr an, dass ich wieder neu Laufen gelernt habe.
Es geht mir gut mit dem Medikament.
Allerdings muss ich sagen, ich würde es mir nicht von jedem Arzt geben lassen. Du solltest vertrauen haben. Ich habe zu meinem Arzt sehr großes Vertrauen und er ist auch jeder Zeit für mich da. Egal wie "dumm" die Fragen auch sind. Er erklärt mir alles.

Naja, wirklich helfen kann man dir bei der Entscheidung nicht. Mach was du für richtig hälst und wenn du dir unsicher bist, dann hol dir einfach noch eine andere Meinung ein.

Wenn du noch Fragen hast, kannst du dich gerne melden.

Liebe Grüße
YYYY

P.S. Das mit dem Virus ist übrigens so eine Sache. Natürlich spuckt das auch manchmal in meinem Kopf rum, aber mein Arzt hat mir den Sachverhalt folgendermaßen erklärt. Es gab in der dritten Testohase des Medikaments diese Todesfälle in den USA. Dort wird jedoch MS nicht wie bei uns diagnostiziert. Man geht davon aus, dass die Personen zum Teil keine MS hatten bzw. das es zu Wechselwirkungen mit den Interferonen gekommen ist, die gleichzeitig eingenommen wurden. Und darauf wird in Deutschland schon sehr geschaut. Die Auflagen für Tysabri sind hoch

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=246267&pt=msg&…

[Poppholz]

von mir aus können wir jeden Tag ROT beginnen, wenn wir Abends GRÜN schließen.

[Poppholz]

aktuell liegen wir wieder über der $34,- Marke.

Das haben wir gestern aber auch vorbörslich getan und dann kamen die Kursdrücker.

Mal sehen ob sie heute wieder kommen und wieviel Geld sie diesmal in die Hand nehmen wollen.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.381.071 von Poppholz am 26.06.08 15:15:25

ROT gestartet und jetzt schon GRÜN




Die Kursdrücker lassen echt nach.

Aber bis heute Abend ist ja noch ein wenig Zeit.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

SUPI----dann kann ich mir den Frisörbesuch ja jetzt leisten....


35 Dollarchen gerade--freu mich!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.381.402 von Poppholz am 26.06.08 15:43:12

..aktuell wirklich beeindruckend......

......knapp bei 35 USD...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.381.830 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 26.06.08 16:17:28

SUPI----dann kann ich mir den Frisörbesuch ja jetzt leisten....

Was für eine Frisur willst du dir denn machen lassen ???

Oder anders gefragt: was für eine Frisur gönnst du dir denn ????

> Bei dem Kurs musst das ja die " Hammerfrisur " sein bzw. werden <

[bernie55]

RTQ: $35.41, + $0.67 on 2.0M shares

[bernie55]

Aus dem IV Board

60 Minute Report

Pps is 35.21, up 47 cents on strong volume of 1,677,310 shares traded.

This Ipars rocket is blasting up into the wild green yonder!

Tysabri marches on! And another day closer to ICAD.

This will be a summer to remember!

Buy and hold for 5 weeks! You will be well rewarded.

Buy and hold for 5 years and it's champagne and Kobe Beef for breakfast!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.138 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 16:41:24

und damit meinen die "ab heute".

Wir sind aber schon seit drei Jahren dabei.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.309 von Poppholz am 26.06.08 16:53:26

..das heißt dann nicht ....it's champagne and Kobe Beef for breakfast

sondern für uns als PBBS Company.. ....champagne and Kobe Beef zum Frühstück, Mittag und Abendessen....

Wollen wir nur hoffen, dass bis dahin Biggies Frisur auch noch in ist....

..sorry Birgit, aber der musste einfach sein !!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.420 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 17:02:10

Wollen wir nur hoffen, dass bis dahin Biggies Frisur auch noch in ist

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.515 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 17:10:06

WWWWOOOHHHHHH.........WWWWWOOOHHH........WWWWWWWOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHH.....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.420 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 17:02:10

Kobe Beef

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.420 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 17:02:10

champagne

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

na also---jetzt habt Ihr aber nicht aufgepasst in den letzten Minuten...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.382.420 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 17:02:10

....also meine Frisur ist jetzt schon gewöhnungsbedürftig....---irgendwie hat die Frisörin-die selberlilaHaare hatte,ziemlich zugeschlagen...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.383.253 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 26.06.08 18:14:25

..zeigen...zeigen....zeigen....zeigen......zeigen.....


..wenn du dich trauen solltest...

...TROST......TROST......TROST.....

[bernie55]

Abschlusskurs 34.53 USD > - 0.21

..well done, ELAN....

........ habe in den letzten zwei Tagen meine restlichen deutschen Aktien verkauft und das mit einem guten Plus !!!!

...und wirklich mal auch ein gutes Timing = Händchen bewiesen.....

.....so jetzt stehe ich an der Seitenlinie und warte auf gute Kaufgelegenheiten bei deutschen Aktien....

Hätte jemand von euch einen Tipp, welche dt. Aktie ich noch auf meine WL setzen könnte....

...ruhig auch per BM....wollen den Thread ja nicht zumüllen....

....GILDEMEISTER und Nordex sind bereits dabei......

Gute Nacht, bis morgen

bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.385.774 von bernie55 am 26.06.08 23:45:11

....nix "zeigen"... ist aber vielleicht doch objektiv nicht "ganz so schlimm"geworden--habe heute Abend viel positive Feed-Backs bekommen

Dein Posting mit dem Verkauf der deutschen Aktien kann man übrigens aus Versehen auch so verstehen ,dass Du die deutschen Elanies meinst...Ich WEISS natürlich,dass dem nicht so ist...!!


Montsanto,K+S,Solarwerte.....

PUUUHHH;der Markt ist--ausser Elan--so langsam im Crash-Modus...finde das alles sehr inszeniert!--wer daran wohl gut verdient??

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.385.842 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 00:18:57

...da freue ich mich aber über die " positiven " Feedbacks....

.....zumindest würde ich dich erkennen, wenn wir uns wieder mal sehen sollten.....

....KS und Montsanto auf WL.....THX

Solarwerte werden gecheckt.....

ELAN ist natürlch " keine deutsche Aktie "...steht somit noch voll im Depot....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.386.326 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 08:43:22

Gruss!Birgit

[bernie55]

Irish research gives Alzheimer's boost Friday, June 27 2008

By Eilish O'Regan Health Correspondent

Irish researchers have unlocked new insights into Alzheimer's disease which may help in developing advanced drugs to fight the illness.

A team from UCD, who worked with other researchers abroad, found a cascade of molecular events that lead to Alzheimer's disease.

The findings, published in the latest edition of Nature Medicine, suggest a potential new target for the development of drug therapies to fight the irreversible and degenerative disease, which affects more than 40,000 people in Ireland and some 29.8 million people worldwide.

The baseline cost of dementia in Ireland was estimated at €400m in 2006, while the total worldwide societal cost was estimated at somewhere in the region of $315.4bn (€200.17bn) in 2005.

The team of Irish and international researchers have identified that the accumulation of a particular protein (called amyloid-beta) in the brain initiates Alzheimer's disease and that it directly alters the structure and function of brain cells.

Co-author Professor Ciaran Region, of the UCD School of Biomolecular and Biomedical Science, explained: "Alzheimer's disease is a major personal and societal tragedy.

"The disease progression is torturously long and debilitating, extorting a huge emotional and economic cost."

- Eilish O'Regan Health Correspondent

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/irish-research-gives…

[bernie55]

..mal wieder ein posting zum Thema TYSABRI

From a MS board...,

Did I mention that Tysabri is the drug of hope? This post is from a MS board, and the excitement about Tysabri keeps growing among MS patients..., Lauren:

I am so happy for you!!! It is great to have hope, isn't it? Regarding your symptoms re-appearing but in a different fashion with improvement, I totally understand. I saw it in patients when they were healing from a severely compressed spinal nerve. While the nerve is healing, the first thing to come back is sensation and than motor function. The pain pattern changes while the healing is taking place.

I totally agree with you. I also wonder if I had started Tysabri sooner, how much better would I be today. When I had my first two doses of Tysabri in 2004, I was walking with no problem but then it was pulled from the market.

I just had an appointment with my neuro two days after my eleventh infusion. Okay, this is unbelievable to me! I walked the 25 feet with no cane for the first time in two years and I did it one second faster this time than three months ago when I used a cane. I have SPMS and usually you are told that no improvement is possible but I'm here to tell people, it is possible!

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=246549&pt=msg&…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.370.498 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 25.06.08 11:54:37

One more thing from Goldman Sachs conf,,,,

They think if July 29 data confirms what Elan is hinting at,,,,,,,,then there will be early filing.

GS claims "no knowledge" of this speculation about early filing,,,,,,,,,but guest talking about Elan thinks it makes sense there will be interrim look in phase 3 at 6 months (after American studies fully enrolled). Should report midyear 2009. They think drug works,,,mostly worried about safety.

Participates in the conference were actually excited,,,almost giddy about Elan. I have not heard a conference like this before.

Analysts sounded like they were at a rock concert.

Hope things work out. This could be very neat.

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=246637&pt=msg&…

[bernie55]

USA > ELAN

Pre-Market
Last: $ 34.60

Pre-Market
High: $ 35

Pre-Market
Volume: 18,300

Pre-Market
Low: $ 34.60

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

.....über 35$!


ELN msg # 246727 6/27/2008 9:46:00 AM
By: splaylaywahtheepi

Significance of inclusion of 0.15 in topline aggregate

I think we all need to keep in mind what the topline PR told us, or what I believe it told us:

1. There were not enough carriers to demonstrate stat sig because of (IMO) AERs causing drop outs at the higher therapeutic doses

2. The carriers demonstrated stat sig despite only ~90 patients on drug across 4 cohorts AND

3. One of those cohorts, the 0.15 cohort, was given essentially an FDA-mandated non-therapeutic dose and despite this, the non-carriers demonstrated stat sig:

- 25% of the 90 non-carrier drug group were given non-therapeutic doses, but overall there was still stat sig

- probably 35% of the carrier drug group (maybe 9 out of 25 remaining?) were given non-therapeutic levels of drug and that made stat sig impossible but STILL there was a compelling trend shown

What the above means is that when we see the 0.5 and 1.0 and 2.0 data, we are going to see an amazing level of efficacy and, IMO, we are going to get an announcement this year of intent to file a BLA 2 years earlier than anyone expected.

I am excited that Tysabri is doing really well and that EDT is doing well and that we have a superb pipeline beyond Tysabri. But, now we have evidence, I think, that Elan really is going to prove it is worth a huge amount of money in a short period of time.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.386.326 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 08:43:22

hatte schon den Verdacht, dass jemand Deine Zugangsdaten geklaut hätte und hier jetzt "wirres" Zeug schreibt.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.391.625 von Poppholz am 27.06.08 17:09:17

.........................wirres Zeug. ???..................................... Ich ????? ................................Aber HALLO !!!!!




PS: Birgits neue Frisur in 6facher Ausführung...

....laut NDR hat dieser " Long-Tall Ernie Schnitt " einen AWARD bekommen......

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.391.796 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 17:23:23

Long-Tall Ernie Schnitt ???


WO ????? WIE ????? WANN ?????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.391.796 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 17:23:23

.....es ist eben Bernie--der schreibt eben wirres Zeug....

und ich sach immer:Besser wirres auf dem Kopf als im Kopf....



Wo ist eigentlich unser Nörgelchen bei 35,50$??????????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 246783 6/27/2008 11:40:54 AM
By: stop_farking_with_me

The Market is Connecting the Dots

As more investors pour into ELN, I would assume they have looked back at previous statements regarding Bap, have listened to company day, and have sized up KM as a CEO who can be trusted.

The dots that have been connected are:

1) A history of understatement by KM in all guidance concerning ELN;
2) A history of underpromising and over delivering;
3) P2 results that were very good, maybe spectacular (no matter how understated the PR was);
4) Telegraphing early on that if the results were spectacular they would file early;
5) Telegraphing that, to use KM's understated words, the presentation of P2 results will be "very interesting" (interpretation-spectacular in many ways);
6) Publicly-available information suggests that WYE/ELN are agressively working on manufacturing to produce Bap;
7) all of this is converging with all of the fundamentally good news regarding Tysabri uptake and safety;
8) eye-popping stats on the market for the first disease-modifying drug that could deliver 5 billion in revenues within three years

Most importantly, as ELN has moved up in PPS, ELN IR has not discouraged the market by lowering expectations for ICAD.

So, I really beleive we are going to see subpart(e) is at or shortly after ICAD. If that happens, ELN could go up higher than I even want to imagine.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

........ist das unser Holgielein??





Für unser Elan Management der PBBS Chor als Danke-Schön!

[bernie55]

35,87 >< 35.89

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.392.124 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 17:52:19

wasssssss? Bernie hat nur Wireesssssssszeug im Kopf

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.393.762 von surga am 27.06.08 20:30:17

Bernie hat nur Wireesssssssszeug im Kopf


nnnöö...nur Wiirrrrsssssssing.......

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.393.797 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 20:33:37

ahaaaaa Wirsingkohl das können wir doch essen

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.393.865 von surga am 27.06.08 20:40:51

..nix da.... Wirsingkohlkopf gehört mir....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.393.898 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 20:43:41

Wirsingkohlkopf News:

34,97 USD

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.393.898 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 20:43:41

nix da.... Wirsingkohlkopf gehört mir....

..nix essen, nur streicheln...

..oder neue Long Tall Ernie Frisur wie bei Biggie....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.393.950 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 20:49:00

...irgendwie ist Bernie F R E C H ......

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.337 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 21:28:04

[bernie55]

aktuell 35,09 -35,12

..stabile Seitenlage...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.337 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 21:28:04

.........schieß mal lieber auf die SHORTIES.......

...PBBS Company mit einem B weniger wäre doch langweiliger .....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.558 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 21:49:40

...na OK...!Wieso --welches "B" sollte denn ausfallen????????????????


NEE;NEE--WIR sind eine Schicksalsgemeinschaft----und nehmen bald alle AAB-001...

[bernie55]

ABSCHLUSSKURS USA

34,91 USD




bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.705 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 22:04:37

Schönes WE!!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.705 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 22:04:37

irgendwann haben wir auch mal einen Schlusskurs über der $35,- Marke.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.395.064 von Poppholz am 27.06.08 22:55:48

...nächste Woche...

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.733 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 22:07:00

danke, Dir auch

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.395.101 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 23:02:29

ich freu´ mich drauf.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.395.234 von Poppholz am 27.06.08 23:24:34

--ich bin soo froh,dass Elan meine mit Abstand grösste Position im Depot ist...der Rest sieht überwiegend ziemlich "niedergeschlagen" aus... Ciao und Gute Nacht in Elanville!Birgit

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.395.267 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 27.06.08 23:30:53

Meine Risikostreuung (nicht alles in eine Aktie stecken) ist auch eher negativ.

Habe mir die letzten Tage mit WIRECARD die Finger verbrannt.



(wird aus der ELAN-Portokasse beglichen)

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.394.558 von bernie55 am 27.06.08 21:49:40

genau, wir zielen auf Shortie

Schönes WE

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

MOIN!


Print
ELN msg # 246941 6/27/2008 7:40:25 PM
By: elmer92692

All Righty Then.....

I was amused the specialist felt the need to take us down at the close. Granted, we closed at a five year high. I remember back in 2002/2003 we would get so mad. All day long we pushed and pulled, got up a nickel, only to have the tape painted at the end of the day, zip. Yikes, that was annoying. But as the years have passed a new day has dawned.
Yep. As sure as the tides rise and fall, the sun rises and sets, night follows day, our Elan has grown. Grown may be an understatement. Elan is the 800 lb. gorilla. You know what you feed an 800 lb. gorilla? Whatever he wants. Bad joke, but a good idea.
I'll always remember the hedge fund guy that rode Elan down from $60 to $2. He said as "long as I live I'll be short Elan". I hope he kept his word. Lots of bashers and shorts (oddly not posting much anymore) got their heads handed to them recently. Justice can be cruel. But enough about the commuppance of the slugs.
Let's talk about Elan. You know, that chest thumping bioscience giant. We've all waited patiently for these events to unfold. Now granted, Jive isn't Miss Cleo, but you must admit he has posted often and convincingly that Elan's AAB-001 program would cause the pps to explode. That magician Ghost, doubled down at $6, posted the same, and has maintained for years the sole reason he has stayed with Elan is because of their AD science. Same with Fred, he added heavily at $3. Creedster, the legendary LJD, Jean, Frank, on and on....solid, unbendable longs. For years.
If you'll allow me, I'd like to let you in on a secret. I'm hesitant to speak for the group as a whole, and I do hope they'll forgive me, but here it is.....[b]Elan, beyond a shadow of a doubt, has developed the first disease modifing Alzheimer's drug.[/b]
I've been amazed the pps hasn't skyrocketed, but I understand. The press and analysts create doubt and confusion. But "what if this, what if that". I'm telling you, The Man himself said ICAD will make it perfectly clear why Elan went into Phase 3. (I believe the Wye VP said the results would need to be "spectacular")
But enough of that. I'm of the opinion if you're going to bet on an arm wrestling contest, bet on gorilla. You can listen to and follow seasoned longs, many of whom have already made a fortune, or you can wait for clarity. As Mr. Buffett has said many times, clear blue skys are expensive. I know of no analyst or investment company that even comes close to our collective knowledge. Time is short. This I know for a fact, we're going higher. Much higher.

[Poppholz]

after hour sind wir dann ja bei $35,- gelandet:

17:58 $ 35 100
17:19 $ 35.05 100
17:19 $ 35.05 100
16:20 $ 35.05 100
16:17 $ 35.05 100
16:17 $ 35.05 400
16:15 $ 35.05 100
16:14 $ 35.05 100
16:10 $ 35.1162 16,500
16:05 $ 35 100
16:01 $ 35 100
16:01 $ 35 1,100

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

....von Einem ,der Bescheid weiss--lippoghost


Elanians msg # 9640 6/26/2008 9:12:40 PM
By: liposghost

Re: did y'all buy a jet or a yacht and dissapear?? Did you sell all your ELAN off to find greener patures?????

the ghost was on her heals and her many other miracles and was following real close to the back of her feet too.
Other than saying boo, what more can i say other than TSW and better than the topline led you to think.
I do think i told you TSW, didn't I.
Don't sell yet. DSY.
I think you will love ICAD and the few weeks after.
the best to you all aboard
the spook

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 247026 6/28/2008 1:11:48 PM
By: Skeeter95

PPS Projections with Bap and a 15% market penetration:

Let's see how this goes: 25 Million world wide with ALZ and a 15% penetration is 3.75M on the drug.

3,750,000 x $7,500 per year = $23.125 Billion/2 = $11.1 B to ELN plus TY = $12.5 B in sales....

$12.5 B / 460M shares = $27 per share in sales @ 55% profit margin = $15/share in earnings if Bap is a go.

PE of 18 = $270 [/b]price target with a 15% market penetration. THE OTHER 85% JUST WON'T TAKE THE DRUG IF IT WORKS AND THEIR FAMILIES WILL LET THEM PASS AWAY??????.....NO WAY. 15% is uultra conservative if it works.... Can't wait for ICAD and the data! Everone have a good day and hope I'm 50% right. Or, maybe we get a 25% market penetration!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

[red]Sunday Times, Elan plans new drug plant

Resurgent

Elan plans

new Dublin

drugs plant

Tom Lyons

ELAN is advancing plans to build a $300m (C 190m) manufacturing plant in the greater Dublin area.

The company is looking at a number of locations for a biologics facility. Grangegorman, in north Dublin, near its partner Wyeth, is seen as a front-runner for the investment but it is also looking at sites along the east coast.

Elan and Wyeth are co-developing a ground-breaking treatment for Alzheimer's disease. Elan's proposed new facility is contingent on it getting the greenlight for these drugs and its move to locate a suitable manufacturing site is seen as a signal of growing confidence in the company about the success of its trials.

Elan's decision to site its new plant away from its traditional manufacturing base in Athlone is seen as further evidence that it is planning to demerge its drug technology arm from its fast-growing biopharma arm.

"We have made no firm decisions [about the investment]," said an Elan spokesman. "A review is ongoing and as part of that we are looking at an investment in Ireland."

Elan will publish a full set of its latest data on its Alzheimer's trials at the end of July. Two weeks ago it published initial data on its phase-two trials on bapineuzumab. These were seen as positive for treating some people who suffer from the degenerative brain disorder.

Last week, US broker Goldman Sachs added the stock to its "conviction buy list" on the strength of Elan's Alzheimer's data.

Separately, Goldman said it has now built up a 4.27% stake in the company.
[/red]

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 247073 6/28/2008 10:37:23 PM
By: stop_farking_with_me

A conservative valuation for ELN

Once in a while, I take stock of where we are to make sure that I''m not in la-la land with respect to why I continue to hold ELN. So here is my "back of the napkin" valuation analysis:

Price to Sales of Other Pharma COmpanies:

PFE- 2.3
MRK-3.2
BIIB- 4.8
DNA-6.3

Now, these companies earn real dollars right now (where ELN is just beginnning to), so it's hard to come up with a relative comparsion (as ELN trades at 25 X revenues right now). So, you need to think about what ELN's price to sales should be 5 years from now compared to these companies.

If you assume a 10% annual revenue increase, and discount these companies P/S, the discounted P/S are:

PFE-1.4
MRK-1.99
BIIB-2.99
DNA-3.91

OK- so lets think where you would put ELN. I'm thinking that very conservatively, ELN should trade at 4.97 X revenues five years from now(given it's much better growth prospects).

So, lets look at revenue projections:

Tysabri- 1.5 billion (again VERY conservative)
BAP- 2.5 billion (while conservative, and ain't in the bank yet, so you must be)

add $4 for EDT.

This gives you $46 per share, very close to GS's target.

This is where ELN is going by July if (when) it's confirmed that BAP is the real deal. And that's based on "good" not "great" results. Any thing beyond that puts us in overdrive.

I'm not factoring in the multiplier effect that will occur when WS recognizes that Bap is just scratching the surface as far as ELN's pipeline is concerned. And I'm also not factoring in the the "hype" factor that could send ELN into the stratosphere based on potential irrational exuberence that often occurs when a stock is n play.

So, $46 is very likely. $56 with these conservative assumptions with the "hype" factor thrown in. And if Bap shows "spectacular" results, well, do your own estimates, but a double in ELN's price would not surprise me in the least. And I'm not talking about two years from now, I'm talking about two months from now.

I'd rate ELN as a "hold" :-)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Die ALZ-Konkurrenz scheitert

Flurizan Fails to Achieve Significance on Either Co-Primary Endpoint; Company Has Decided to Discontinue Its Development of Flurizan

Myriad Genetics Reports Results of U.S. Phase 3 Trial of Flurizan(TM) in Alzheimer's Disease
Monday June 30, 2:30 am ET

Flurizan Fails to Achieve Significance on Either Co-Primary Endpoint; Company Has Decided to Discontinue Its Development of Flurizan

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 247261 6/30/2008 2:55:54 AM
By: jivetalkin03

OMG

A complete FAILURE... DISCONTINUED!!!

WOW

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFT is right...WE WILL FLY!!!

FLURIZAN IS DEAD

LONG LIVE AAB 001!!

[bernie55]

Lundbeck says Flurizan Phase III trial unsuccessful
6/30/2008 1:47:00 AM (Reuters)

COPENHAGEN, June 30 (Reuters) - Danish pharmaceutical group Lundbeck (LUN.CO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Monday a Phase III trial with Alzheimer's drug Flurizan failed to meet its two primary endpoints. "The clinical phase III data do not correspond to the data observed in clinical phase II," Lundbeck said. Lundbeck bought the European rights for the Myriad Genetics (MYGN.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) experimental drug last month for $100 million. (Reporting by Gelu Sulugiuc)



http://www.investorvillage.com/mbnews.asp?mb=1590&pt=qn&xid=…


...Puuhh......was nach den PH II Daten zu " befürchten " war, bewahrheitete sich jetzt......

Myriad wird wohl heute Federn lassen.......bin jetzt wirklich gespannt, was mit ELAN passiert......

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.401.875 von bernie55 am 30.06.08 10:00:50

Myriad Genetics to stop developing Alzheimer's drug

6/30/2008 2:00:00 AM (Reuters)

(Reuters) - Myriad Genetics Inc said it will stop developing its drug for Alzheimer's disease after a late-stage trial of the drug, Flurizan, failed to meet primary goals. The trial did not achieve statistical significance on either of its primary goals -- cognition and activities of daily living, the company said in a statement. Myriad, which spent about $60 million on development of Flurizan during the 2008 financial year, said remaining expenses to wrap up the drug program are expected to be about $8 million, spread primarily over the next two quarters. (Reporting by Pratish Narayanan in Bangalore; Editing by Quentin Bryar)

http://www.investorvillage.com/mbnews.asp?mb=1590&pt=qn&xid=…

[bernie55]

price change for Tysabri
Our Tysabri Wholesaler is raising prices again: Usually all the wholesalers go up[ the same day. Hope the reimbursement changes kick in this yr and not '09, margins are very thin with Medicare and nonexistent with Medicaid

To: BiologixDirect Customers

Attention: Purchasing
RE: TYSABRI Price Increase

Please be advised, effective June 28th 2008, Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. has increased the WAC price for TYSABRI® (natalizumab) (IV) 300MG/15ML (NDC 59075-730-15), from $2228.31 to $2295.16 per vial.

Please notify the appropriate personnel in your company of this price increase.

If there should be any questions about this new price, feel free to call our customer service:

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=247356&pt=…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.404.070 von bernie55 am 30.06.08 14:38:06

Pre-Market Last: $ 35.45
Pre-Market High: $ 35.60
Pre-Market Volume: 24,830
Pre-Market Low: $ 34.78

[Poppholz]

DUNKELGRÜN

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 247346 6/30/2008 8:12:44 AM
By: wwilson_2003

Flurizan: Very Important News to Elan

In my opinion, this is very big for Elan. Now the second of the two drugs ahead of BAP is gone. The weak, indirect approach to amyloid wasn't good enough. Certainly not good for MYGN or Alz patients, but an effective treatment is on the way. They'll just have to wait a little longer.

Many suspected that MYGN was fooled by selection bias in the Phase 2 (the better performing patients tended to stay in the trial) and by better performing placebos. Of course, no one knew for sure - someone here on the IVMB said that Lars thought it would work.

For Elan's business, the coast is now clear of the last competitor. No dirt-cheap competitor to screw up the market. No alternative. Big news for Elan.

[bernie55]

35,60 - 35,62 USD

[bernie55]

Alzheimers Market And Economics Are Grossely Under Quoted Here Are US Numbers Only At10K Per patient Per Year Kernans $20B Is Chump Change


Prevalence of Alzheimer’s Disease

and Other Dementias*

An estimated 5.2 million Americans of all ages have

Alzheimer’s disease in 2008. This figure includes

5 million people age 65 and overA1 and 200,000

individuals under age 65 who have younger-onset

Alzheimer’s.A2 The Alzheimer’s Association estimates

that there are approximately 500,000 Americans under

age 65 who have Alzheimer’s or another dementia, and

about 40 percent of them have Alzheimer’s disease.

• One in eight persons age 65 and over (13 percent)

has Alzheimer’s disease.A3

• Every 71 seconds, someone in America develops

Alzheimer’s disease. By mid-century, someone will

develop Alzheimer’s every 33 seconds.A4


http://www.alz.org/national/documents/report_alzfactsfigures…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

....aus dem Parallel-Thread

#1326 von ipollit Mittel gegen das Vergessen

Das Sterben von Nervenzellen soll aufgehalten werden: Eine neue Generation von Alzheimer-Medikamenten weckt Hoffnung.


Das erste Opfer, das wir kennen, starb vor 102 Jahren. Auguste Deter, eine 51 Jahre alte Frau kommt im November 1901 in ein psychiatrisches Krankenhaus in Frankfurt am Main. Sie ist orientierungslos, leidet an Paranoia und Halluzinationen und hat Gedächtnisstörungen. Als der Arzt sie am zweiten Tag fragt, wie lange sie schon hier sei, überlegt sie kurz und antwortet: drei Wochen. Als seine Patientin viereinhalb Jahre später stirbt, untersucht er ihr Gehirn. Unter dem Mikroskop entdeckt er überall kleine Klumpen, Plaques genannt. Das Gehirn von Auguste Deter ist davon durchsetzt. Es ist die erste Beobachtung der Krankheit, die wir heute unter dem Namen des Arztes kennen. Sein Name war Alois Alzheimer.

Die Plaques haben auch ein Jahrhundert später nichts von ihrer schrecklichen Faszination verloren. Im Gegenteil: Sie scheinen zum Schlüssel im Kampf gegen Alzheimer geworden zu sein. Denn eine wirkliche Wende in der medizinischen Schlacht gegen das große Vergessen bahnt sich an: Die ersten Medikamente, die spezifisch gegen Alzheimer gerichtet sind, durchlaufen zur Zeit die letzten Teststufen. Es könnte eine Revolution werden – und eine, die dringend gebraucht wird. Alleine in Deutschland sind nach Schätzungen mehr als 700 000 Menschen an Alzheimer erkrankt – und die vorhandenen Arzneien helfen nur wenig.

„Bisher gibt es eigentlich nur zwei Klassen von Medikamenten, die gegen Alzheimer eingesetzt werden können“, erklärt Sascha Weggen, der die Arbeitsgruppe Molekulare Neuropathologie an der Universität Düsseldorf leitet. Beide greifen in den Stoffwechsel des Gehirns ein. Die eine Klasse erhöht die Menge des wichtigen Botenstoffs Acetylcholin. Bei Alzheimerpatienten sterben die Zellen ab, die diesen Botenstoff ausschütten. Das führt zu verschiedenen Symptomen, wie etwa den frühen Gedächtnisstörungen. Der ständige Abbau des Acetylcholins, der normalerweise sehr schnell passiert, wird durch diese Medikamente verzögert. So können die abgestorbenen Zellen kompensiert werden. Ewig geht das aber auch nicht. „Wenn immer mehr von den Zellen sterben, sind irgendwann einfach keine Zellen mehr da, die Acetylcholin überhaupt produzieren“, erklärt Weggen. Auch Memantin, das einzige Medikament in der zweiten Klasse, setzt bei einem Botenstoff im Gehirn an. So richtig gut geklärt sei der Mechanismus aber nicht, gibt Weggen zu bedenken.

Immer wieder tauchen Zweifel an der Wirksamkeit dieser zugelassenen Medikamente auf. Und keines von ihnen packt die Krankheit an der Wurzel. Kein Wunder, denn lange Zeit war über die Ursachen so gut wie gar nichts bekannt. Man behandelte die Symptome und hoffte, die schlimmsten Auswirkungen ein wenig herauszögern zu können. Inzwischen weiß man mehr. Viele Rätsel der Alzheimerkrankheit sind in den letzten Jahren aufgeklärt worden, und die meisten Forscher sind sich mittlerweile einig, wie die Krankheit ungefähr entsteht. Das Schlagwort heißt Beta-Amyloid. Hinter diesem Namen verbirgt sich ein kleines Fragment eines wesentlich größeren Eiweißes namens APP. Im Gehirn wird aus dem APP das kleine Beta-Amyloid herausgeschnitten – durch entscheidende Moleküle, die Sekretasen. „Das sind im Grunde molekulare Scheren“, sagt Christian Haass, Biochemiker an der Universität München. Sie schneiden erst an einem Ende, dann am anderen das kleine Beta-Amyloid aus dem großen APP heraus. Was dann passiert, nennt Haass eine „tödliche Kaskade“: Nachdem das Beta-Amyloid herausgeschnitten wurde. verlässt es die Zelle, trifft auf andere Beta-Amyloid-Moleküle, mit denen es verklebt, und langsam bilden sich die gefürchteten Plaques, die schon Alois Alzheimer erkannt hat. Sie führen dann zum Absterben von Zellen und all den Symptomen, die aus einem geliebten Menschen plötzlich einen Fremden machen können.

Es ist nur eine These, dass alle wichtigen Veränderungen bei Alzheimer auf das kleine Beta-Amyloid zurückgehen. Aber die meisten Forscher sind davon überzeugt – und Pharmaunternehmen haben Milliarden darauf gewettet. An verschiedenen Stellen versuchen sie, die Entstehung der Plaques zu beeinflussen, um die Krankheit endlich da zu bekämpfen, wo ihre Ursachen liegen. Gegen beide Sekretasen, die molekularen Scheren, die das Beta-Amyloid erzeugen, sind Hemmstoffe in der Entwicklung. Sie sollen bewirken, dass diese Scheren weniger aktiv sind. So würde weniger Beta-Amyloid anfallen, die Plaques könnten sich nicht so schnell bilden, die Krankheit würde möglicherweise sogar vermieden. Einige dieser Hemmstoffe sind bereits in der letzten Phase der klinischen Erprobung. LY450139 heißt die Hoffnung des US-Pharmakonzerns Eli Lilly. Dieses Jahr hat eine Studie mit 1500 Patienten begonnen, um die Wirksamkeit der Substanz zu überprüfen. Sollte sie halten, was sie verspricht, könnte sie schon 2011 unter einem eingängigeren Namen Alzheimer-Patienten das Leben leichter machen.

Auch die US-Pharmafirma Myriad hat einen Sekretase-Hemmer in den Startlöchern: Flurizan. Dieser Wirkstoff, verwandt mit dem Schmerzmittel Ibuprofen, wird in zwei großen Studien getestet. Rund 2400 Patienten nehmen daran teil. Erste Ergebnisse will das Unternehmen noch diesen Monat bekannt geben. Sollten sie positiv sein, könnte Flurizan 2009 auf den Markt kommen.

Ob Flurizan wirklich die Sekretase hemmt, ist nach neuen Forschungsergebnissen, die diese Woche im Fachblatt „Nature“ (Band 453, S. 925) publiziert werden, unklar. Die Gruppe um den Neurowissenschaftler Thomas Kukar von der Mayo Klinik in Jacksonville, Florida, hat neben anderen Substanzen auch Flurizan untersucht und ist zu einem überraschenden Ergebnis gekommen. Ihre These: Das Medikament hemmt in erster Linie gar nicht die Sekretase. Stattdessen bindet es an das APP und verhindert so, dass es zerkleinert wird und verklebt. „Für die Wirksamkeit haben diese Befunde wenig Relevanz, aber sie zeigen, wie wenig auch jetzt noch über die kommende erste Generation von Alzheimer-Medikamenten bekannt ist“, sagt der Düsseldorfer Weggen. Dies gilt auch für andere neue Behandlungsansätze.

Die Firma Elan hat einen Impfstoff gegen Alzheimer entwickelt. Den Patienten wird ein Antikörper gespritzt, der das Immunsystem gegen die ungewollten Plaques richten soll. Ganz normale Zellen der Immunabwehr räumen dann das Beta-Amyloid weg. Die Tierversuche waren vielversprechend. Auch wenn das Unternehmen die Daten der ersten Versuche am Menschen noch nicht veröffentlicht hat, darf man hoffen. Nun hat eine große Studie des Impfstoffes in den USA und Kanada begonnen, die Klarheit bringen soll. Eine internationale Studie, an der auch Deutschland beteiligt sein soll, will das Unternehmen in den nächsten Wochen auf den Weg bringen. Erste Ergebnisse werden 2010 erwartet.

Sascha Weggen ist vorsichtig optimistisch: „In den nächsten ein bis vier Jahren wird es einen erheblichen Erkenntnisgewinn geben.“ Ob damit auch mehr Lebensqualität für Patienten einhergeht, hängt davon ab, ob die Amyloidhypothese richtig ist. „Wenn das Konzept nicht stimmen sollte, werden auch die Therapien nicht funktionieren“, sagt Weggen - und fügt hinzu: „Die Ergebnisse werden auf jeden Fall zeigen: Sind wir auf dem richtigen Weg? Ja oder Nein?“ Bei fast 20 Millionen Alzheimer-Patienten weltweit können wir nur hoffen, dass es der richtige Weg ist.

(Erschienen im gedruckten Tagesspiegel vom 12.06.2008)

[bernie55]

...aktuell 35.93 - 35,95

[bernie55]

Bid: $35.98 Offer: $36

Schallmauer bald durchbrochen.

36 USD
36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD
36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD
36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD
36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD 36 USD

[surga]

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.407.161 von surga am 30.06.08 20:57:20

....Mannomann...wer hätte das gedacht ????

....der Kursverlauf, den wir uns schon so lange erhofft haben...

...irgendwann muss ELAN aber mal durchschnaufen !!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.407.182 von bernie55 am 30.06.08 20:59:52

So ist es, sehr heftig!!!!!!!!!
36USD ist sehr hart umkämpft

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.407.281 von surga am 30.06.08 21:10:16

.....aber harte Kämpfe haben wir ja schon einige geschafft....

[GuHu1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.407.212 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 30.06.08 21:02:53

was soll man dazu sagen birgit?
bleibt nur ein

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.407.351 von GuHu1 am 30.06.08 21:19:08

Schönen Abend!Gruss!

[Poppholz]

After Hour sind wir dann bei $35,84 gelandet:

18:42 $ 35.84 100
18:01 $ 35.86 100
16:52 $ 35.89 300
16:51 $ 35.89 100
16:32 $ 35.55 300
16:32 $ 35.55 100
16:25 $ 35.55 100
16:16 $ 35.55 226
16:15 $ 35.55 444
16:13 $ 35.6549 800
16:11 $ 35.6928 1,000
16:11 $ 35.6928 6,800
16:11 $ 35.6928 13,600
16:11 $ 35.6928 800
16:02 $ 35.55 9,500
16:01 $ 35.7966 30,000


Jetzt kann als nächstes die $40,- Hürde genommen werden.

Diese Woche noch $36,50.

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.408.816 von Poppholz am 01.07.08 08:21:48

Sollte das wirklich mit diesem Tempo weitergehen ???

.....einfach nur verrückt !!!!...schön verrückt....

...eine Verschnaufpause wird wohl langsam Zeit, oder ????


..vielleicht steckt neben Ty + PII daten + EDT noch was anderes dahinter -

ÜBERNAHME ????
...ich kann mir diese Hypehysterie irgendwie nicht mehr anders erklären....

[bernie55]

Major Holders


BREAKDOWN

% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 1%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 60%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 61%
- Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 191

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.408.854 von bernie55 am 01.07.08 08:29:41

Moin!

Ich glaube,der Markt sieht JETZT erst das, was wir seit Jahren sehenas unglaubliche Potential in der Bekämpfung von ALZ,MS,Parkinson,Krebs....Ist doch fein--und ich denke es geht weitaus HÖHER!! Grüsse!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.409.093 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.07.08 09:05:48

Ich glaube,der Markt sieht JETZT erst das, was wir seit Jahren sehen - das unglaubliche Potential in der Bekämpfung von ALZ,MS,Parkinson,Krebs

..so eine einfach Erklärung hätte ich jetzt nicht parat gehabt....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.409.093 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.07.08 09:05:48

gehe auch davon aus, dass jetzt Kurssteigerungen erfolgen, die bie anderen Unternehmen schon über Monate erfolgt wären.

In 2006 hatten wir zum Beispiel keine Steigerung, obwohl die Nachrichten gut waren.

2007 waren die Daten schon wesentlich besser (und sicherer) da als 2004, allerdings hatte der Kurs dies nicht wieder gespiegelt.

Weiterhin ist die Aktie doch leicht zu manipulieren gewesen, da bei guten Nachrichten der Kurs "immer" nach unten gegagen ist.

Somit findet jetzt endlich die Korrektur statt.

[bernie55]

Goodbody-

'AAB-001 likely to be first to market'

Elan (Add, Closing Price $35.55); AAB-001 to be first to market?
Analyst: Ian Hunter T [phone] E [e-mail]
Yesterday in separate statements, Lundbeck and Myriad Genetics announced that their Alzheimer’s drug, Flurizan, had failed in the last stage of clinical testing. While we always believed that AAB-001 had more potential than Flurizan, which previously missed its Phase II endpoints, we did expect it to reach market by early 2009.
Yesterday’s announcement leaves the Alzheimer’s market wide open for Elan, with AAB-001 likely to be first to market amongst current drug candidates for the treatment of Alzheimer’s.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=247713&pt=…

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.410.052 von Poppholz am 01.07.08 10:47:01

Somit findet jetzt endlich die Korrektur statt.


.......auch sehr nett ausgedrückt...

..eigentlich müsste Holger von dieser Art " Korrektur " begeistert sein....

Wo ist der denn überhaupt ???
Hat er vielleicht schon seine Call Optionen verkauft und weilt bereits auf den Malediven ???

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.408.854 von bernie55 am 01.07.08 08:29:41

......noch eine weitere Erklärung ??!!??....


3 day rule
still can't believe it takes 3 days for the folks to figure things out but FIRST to market with a disease modifier for Alzheimers is HUGH! Looks like the Europeans are figuring this out today, on day 2, always knew they were a little brighter than us americans... ........und im Durchschnitt auch schlanker...

here's to 40$ by this Friday...

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=247714&pt=…

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.410.273 von bernie55 am 01.07.08 11:06:26

Hi alle zusammen ...

Ich hab weder meine Calls verkauft noch bin ich auf den Malediven.
Nö ... die Dinger stehen schon mit 135 % im Plus ... und haben noch einiges an Restlaufzeit ... schöööööön .... freu ..... endlich.

Ich stecke im Moment mitten im Umzug meines Lebens ... muß mein riesen Haus räumen und ziehe in ein 3x so kleines ... ätz ... das ist so ein Aufwand, ich konnt mir das nicht vorstellen. Und nächsten Montag 11 Uhr muß ich fertig sein und die alte Hütte übergeben ... oh je.

Aber ich luscher hier ständig rein und der Kursverlauf von Elan gibt mir zusätzlich Kraft und Mut.

Also ... schön weiterposten ... ich "les" Euch

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.410.989 von Holgus am 01.07.08 12:12:50

..also, dann mal viel Power, positive Energie und natürlich viel " ELAN " für die nächsten Tage......

Grüße bernie55

[bernie55]

Shots may rouse immune system to fight Alzheimer's

Posted on Tue, Jul. 01, 2008

BY ROGER SCHLUETER
News-Democrat


ST. LOUIS --St. Louis University doctors are hoping that a new drug study will be like a shot in the arm in the fight against Alzheimer's disease.

The research involves giving patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's intravenous doses of an investigational drug. Like a flu shot or tetanus vaccination, the drug is designed to rev up the patient's own immune system, only this time to fight the mind-robbing disease.

"This therapy is the first treatment of its kind and holds great potential," said Dr. George Grossberg, director of the division of geriatric psychiatry at St. Louis University School of Medicine and the trial's principal investigator.

"Immune therapy has promise for being able to modify the course of Alzheimer's disease rather than simply treat the symptoms as current FDA-approved therapies do."

Grossberg calls the treatment a vaccination approach because it involves an antibody that doctors hope will attack the plaque that forms inside the brain of those with Alzheimer's. St. Louis University is the only St. Louis site taking part in the study, which will involve more than 2,000 patients at 200 sites across the United States and Canada.

Patients who participate in the research will receive an intravenous infusion of an antibody to the beta amyloid protein. This protein triggers the death of brain cells in Alzheimer's patients, scientists believe. Study participants will be randomly assigned to one of three groups: Two will receive different amounts of the real drug while a third group will receive a sham solution, or placebo.

Those eligible should be 50 to 88 years old and must have a caregiver to accompany them to all clinic visits. The caregivers also should see the volunteer at least five times a week during the study.

"It's important to note that these volunteers may stay on certain Alzheimer's medications," Grossberg said.

The study will last about 85 weeks. During 65 of those weeks, patients will receive hourlong infusions every 13 weeks at the St. Louis University Cancer Center. Researchers will look for physiological changes, such as whether MRIs show changes in the volume of the brain. They also will examine changes to mental health through various psychiatric screening tools.

About 40 volunteers are needed at the St. Louis site. For information, call [phone].

The study is sponsored by Elan Pharmaceuticals and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals

Contact reporter Roger Schlueter at 239-2465 or [e-mail]


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.bnd.com/living/story/384821.html

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.411.387 von bernie55 am 01.07.08 12:53:02

Danke Bernie

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.410.989 von Holgus am 01.07.08 12:12:50

...Mensch,der GÖTTIN sei Dank---135%--und das ist ja erst der ANFANG!!

Ich freu`mich für Dich!!Birgit

PS...und WIR haben ja auch was davon---...müssen kein Johanniskraut mehr ausgeben.....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.412.218 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.07.08 14:14:29

müssen kein Johanniskraut mehr ausgeben

doch........... wenn ihr mal auf MYRIAD schaut....

.....ich glaub, ich spinne....failed PIII....und jetzt um die 8 bis 10 Prozent im Plus.....

...und das soll ich verstehen ????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...wir sind grün...---SUPI!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.416.428 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 01.07.08 21:44:03

wir sind grün


35.80 USD + 0.25

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.416.919 von bernie55 am 01.07.08 22:45:08

...und nochmal grüner...


After Hours
Last: $ 35.99


After Hours
High: $ 36
After Hours
Volume: 2,724
After Hours
Low: $ 35.2722

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.416.919 von bernie55 am 01.07.08 22:45:08

und wie grün wir sind.



(brennen sollen die SHORTIES)

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.416.969 von Poppholz am 01.07.08 22:53:23

After Hour sind wir bei $36,- gelandet:

16:51 $ 35.91 100
16:51 $ 35.90 100
16:38 $ 35.99 100
16:31 $ 35.92 100
16:17 $ 36 100
16:13 $ 35.80 224
16:13 $ 35.2722 2,200

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.416.969 von Poppholz am 01.07.08 22:53:23

.....BRENNEN solln sie.....und alle Dumpfi-Analysten auch!!!

[bernie55]

Davy

Testing our Q2 forecast for Tysabri

Price $35.80 Target: $31.00 Issued: 18/06/08
Previous: $25.50 Issued: 23/01/08

One useful way of stress-testing our quarterly US forecast for Tysabri has been to compare it with the monthly sales data provided by IMS. The IMS data are not the full picture, however, as they do not include several of the speciality distributors involved in the TOUCH programme. However, these data can be used to indicate trends and provide an approximate, grossed-up estimate of US quarterly revenues for the product.

These data are available since the start of 2007. Using the IMS run-rate for April and May, we gross up the numbers to reflect (a) the full quarter and (b) IMS sales as a proportion of actual sales. We use several analyses of previous data to generate reasonable grossing-up adjustment factors.

Our experience in previous quarters has also indicated that imputing revenues from the IMS run-rate tends to overshoot the actual out-turn by just over 10% in some cases.

Projected US revenues for Q2 imply a range of $112-121m, depending on the methodology used. This is 6-14% ahead of our own $106m forecast for the quarter. Adjusting for some overshoot, our US forecast looks comfortable in this context.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2008/morningrep/download/0702davy…

[bernie55]

Tysabri - "I walked .... today"


- from an MS board -


I walked on grass today

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Two years ago I was weak and in a wheel chair, I have since started tysabri with 13 doses, daily I take one amandatine and one 4-ap. I am not taking balofen, or antivert anymore. I today with forearm crutches walked on grass for the first time in 4 years it felt SOOOO good. I am stronger than before and swimming at least 4 times a week. I have gotten so much strength back as compared with before my wheel chair is collecting dust. I also swept the floors.

For long walks I do use a scooter as at Walmart etc.. but am surprised how much strength I have regained!!! YEA!!!
Since being on tysabri it feels like when I have been on steroids. That is the way I try to explain it. I hope to regain more strength as time goes on, My balance has improved but still need more. I can walk in place again and take 4-6 steps on my own. HUgs


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=248075&pt=…

[bernie55]

Myriad Genetics
Alzheimer's drug study is a letdown
The Utah company said the third phase of the trials proved to be disappointing
By Steven Oberbeck
The Salt Lake Tribune
Article Last Updated: 07/01/2008 10:18:03 AM MDT


In diesem Artikel wird auch auf BAP eingegangen....


.......................

David Larsen of the Utah chapter of the Alzheimer's Association said Flurizan's Phase 3 results were "terribly disappointing" for a lot of people. "The battle, though, will go on. And for every one [drug] that goes down if flames, there are several more waiting in the wings."
He pointed to another drug, AAB-001 or "bapineuzumab," which is being developed by Elan Corp. and its partner Wyeth. The drug has demonstrated initial promise in increasing the cognitive ability for Alzheimer's sufferers who lack a gene known as ApoE4. About 70 percent of AlzheiÂmer's sufferers lack that gene.
Physician David Smith of Neurological Associates in Salt Lake City will be participating in the Phase 3 trial of bapineuzumab, which is a man-made antibody designed to remove plaque deposits from the brain.
"We currently are looking for additional patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's to participate in the study," said Karen George of Wasatch Clinical Research, which is partnering with Neurological Association to conduct the trial. "Enrollment so far only has been open a couple of weeks and we now have 18 patients signed up. We are hoping to get 100 patients to participate."



http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_9749970

[bernie55]

Kleiner Zeitvertreib für zwischendurch...


. Wollt ihr euch mal den amerikanischen MARKUS FRICK reinziehen..

...dann stellt mal eure Lauscher auf......

......sehr schön auch die Hintergrundmusik.....

http://www.stockonlinehelp.info/

[Poppholz]

vorbörslich über $36,-

(36,02 zu 36,14)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.421.548 von Poppholz am 02.07.08 15:12:02

...fein!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.421.548 von Poppholz am 02.07.08 15:12:02

....schöönnnnn...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.421.548 von Poppholz am 02.07.08 15:12:02

.....wenn es so weiter geht, dann ist ja bald mal wieder ein Aktiensplitt fällig....

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.421.675 von bernie55 am 02.07.08 15:22:59

....genau--wir fangen noch mal bei 3 Dollar an

Bin jetzt erstmal off--Gespräch mit Gartenbauer über Badesee...

Passt mir schön auf!!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.421.736 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 02.07.08 15:27:56

..ich bin auch off......arbeiten...

[Poppholz]

schöner Start über der $36,- Marke.

Jetzt aber erst einmal wieder in den roten Berich gedrückt.

(mir egal, solange wir heute Abend wieder grün sind)

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.421.675 von bernie55 am 02.07.08 15:22:59

....wenn es so weiter geht, dann ist ja bald mal wieder ein Aktiensplitt fällig..


Genau, Birgit fängt dann an mit dem Splitten ihrer Aktien ... 2 Teile für Holgus und ein Teil für Birgitus ... prima Idee

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.422.137 von Holgus am 02.07.08 15:59:43

Genau, Birgit fängt dann an mit dem Splitten ihrer Aktien ... 2 Teile für Holgus und ein Teil für Birgitus ... prima Idee


..und deine Callscheinchen werden dann aber auch gerecht verteilt....

....2 Teile für die PBBS Company , ein Teil für Holgus....

[Holgus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.423.048 von bernie55 am 02.07.08 17:18:27

Pöööööh !!!!!!

3 Teile für Holgus und für PBB zum Schluß ein auf die Nuß

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.423.048 von bernie55 am 02.07.08 17:18:27

GUTE Idee,lass uns abstimmen....

PS.So´n Schwimmteich ist ZUUUU teuer....--müsste mein ganzes Elanie+ opfern.....ne,ne,ne....das mach ich nicht....warum sind wir eigentlich im Minus--OBWOHL iHR DOCH AUFPASSEN SOLLTET....??!:O

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.424.080 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 02.07.08 19:02:36

warum sind wir eigentlich im Minus--OBWOHL iHR DOCH AUFPASSEN SOLLTET....??!


..das liegt nur an deiner neuen Frisur....

..hättest du ruhig mal eine andere Tönung genommen....

[surga]

Top Themen: Zinserhöhung und Ölpreis, wem nutzt das eigentlich????

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.428.270 von surga am 03.07.08 11:00:15

....denen die viel öl haben,oder dort long und in aktien short sind....

[bernie55]

Jul 1, 2008 5:38 pm

New Drug Offers Hope For Alzheimer's Victims

Dr. Sean Kenniff

E-mail MIAMI (CBS4) ― As many as five-million Americans are living with Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimer's destroys brain cells, causing problems with memory, thinking and behavior severe enough to affect work, lifelong hobbies or social life. Alzheimer's gets worse over time, and it is fatal: it is now the seventh-leading cause of death in the United States.


Bapineuzumab has been touted by its developers as potentially the first Alzheimer's drug to slow progression of the disease, rather than just treat symptoms.

In a recent study, released in mid-June, half of the 240 Alzheimer's patients were given the drug while the other half were given a placebo and the researchers say although the drug did not reach statistical goals it did prove to be relatively effective when given to patients diagnosed with the degenerative brain disorder.

The interim results showed that patients given the new drug showed less loss of brain volume among treated patients compared with those given a placebo.

Bonnie Lowe is 89 years old and suffers from Alzheimer's, which is beginning to take a toll on her memory.

She's taking a shot on the experimental medication, which is basically an Alzheimer's vaccine.

Currently, the only way to treat Alzheimer's is by using memory boosting medications. Unfortunately, the drugs don't do anything to correct the underlying cause of the disease. That's what this new vaccine type therapy hopes to do.

Dr. Bruce Kohrman is a neurologist studying the drug at Miami Research Associates.

"It's a whole new world of treatment," Dr. Kohrman said, "It is a whole new avenue of treatment."

Dr. Kohrman and his team are conducting a much larger Phase-III study, and enrolling more patients.

The drug is a partnership between Irish drugmaker Elan and its U.S. partner Wyeth.

To find out more about Alzheimer's Vaccine Clinical Trials in South Florida, please contact Miami Research Associates at 6141 Sunset Drive, Suite 301 in South Miami, phone [phone].



(© MMVIII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved


http://cbs4.com/health/alzheimers.health.2.761326.html

[bernie55]

vorbörslich USA:

BID 35,57
ASK 35,87

uuupppssss

jetzt

BID 35,40
ASK 35,68

..vielleicht wieder ein grüner Anfang...

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.430.208 von bernie55 am 03.07.08 14:01:49

36er ist Widerstand geworden! Ich hoffe, die Korrektur wird nicht heftig sein

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.430.208 von bernie55 am 03.07.08 14:01:49

jetzt schaut Euch diesen Kursverlauf an.

Ich habe mich schon gewundert, dass der Kurs wieder unter die $35,- Marke gefallen ist, dann haben diese ...(zensiert) es aber auch noch geschafft, den Kurs unter die $34,- Marke zu drücken.

ABSOLUTER WAHNSINN.

[Poppholz]

habt Ihr übrigens das gelesen?

Hatte ich auf der Watchlist, aber leider nicht zugegriffen:

Financial Times Deutschland
200 Prozent Aufschlag: Briten kaufen Biotechfirma Jerini
Donnerstag 3. Juli 2008, 12:53 Uhr

Einer Mitteilung vom Donnerstag zufolge bietet Shire (London: SHP.L - Nachrichten) 6,25 Euro je Stückaktie von Jerini (Xetra: 678747 - Nachrichten) . Das ist ein Aufschlag von 68 Prozent auf den letzten Kurs der Jerini-Aktie, die vorübergehend vom Handel ausgesetzt wurde. Der Preis entspricht Jerini zufolge sogar einem Aufpreis von rund 199 Prozent auf den volumengewichteten Durchschnittskurs der Jerini-Aktie in Höhe von 2,09 Euro Anzeige

während der letzten drei Monate vor Ankündigung des Angebots. Ende April hatte das Papier noch 95 Cent gekostet.

Das seit Ende 2005 börsennotierte Unternehmen hatte die Investmentbank Credit Suisse Kreisen zufolge beauftragt, einen Verkauf zu prüfen. Jerini entwickelt Medikamente für Krankheiten, für die es bislang keine oder kaum Behandlungsmöglichkeiten gibt. Dazu zählt das hereditäre Angioödem (HAE). Das seltene Krankheitsbild ruft schmerzhafte Schwellungen an verschiedenen Regionen des Körpers hervor.

Jerinis Hauptprodukt Firazyr zur Behandlung vom HAE soll in Europa bis spätestens September auf den Markt kommen. Shire verspricht sich jährliche Umsatzerlöse von bis zu 400 Mio. $.

Die Briten haben sich von Vorstandschef und Firmengründer Jens Schneider-Mergener und anderen Altaktionären 53 Prozent der Anteile gesichert und werden zudem eine Kapitalerhöhung zeichnen, hieß es. Vorstand und Aufsichtsrat begrüßten die Übernahme. Der Vorstand werde nach der Übernahme zurücktreten.

Shire finanziert die Transaktion nach eigenen Angaben aus den Cashbeständen. Spätestens in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2010 solle sich der Zukauf auszahlen. Shire fokussiert sich unter anderem auf humangenetische Therapien sowie Magendarm- und Harnwegserkrankungen.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.667 von Poppholz am 03.07.08 17:27:47

die müssen enormes Kapital haben, um diese starke Aktie zu drucken

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.717 von Poppholz am 03.07.08 17:32:22

warum hattes Du nicht zugegriffen?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.667 von Poppholz am 03.07.08 17:27:47

...und noch einmal--innerhalb von 10min 60 cent runter...--gut dass Fundamentals und aktuelle Entwicklungen davon nicht berührt werden...!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.806 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 03.07.08 17:40:32

was das für ein Spiel wird dort wieder betrieben?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.837 von surga am 03.07.08 17:42:54

...viele Makler sind schon im langen WE....und die Grossen kaufen billig vor der Bekanntgabe der Zahlen und die Shorts versuchen sich billig einzudecken...Aber das ändert sich SEHR bald!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.864 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 03.07.08 17:45:59

meinst Du, die Shorties verkaufen die Aktien, die sie nicht besitzen und kaufen dann billig ein. Dabei haben die Shorties die Hoffnung dass die Leute noch weiter verkaufen, weil sie Angst haben?
So ein Sch.. Spiel :O

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.923 von surga am 03.07.08 17:52:36

yepp--aber das hört bald auf!!

Ich gehe jetzt in die Kneipe....bei dem Markt wird man schnell zum Alki....till tomorrow

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.433.006 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 03.07.08 18:00:39

Viel Spass und saufe nicht zu viel! Denk an die Hitze, macht sehr schnell high

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.663 von surga am 03.07.08 17:27:24

Hi ELANITES und ELANIACS,

...oooohhhmmmmmmmm.....ooohhmmmmmmmmm.....

...das war überfällig und zugleich irgendwann zu erwarten, dass ganz klar eine kleine Verschnaufpause eingelegt wird....

TBI und MACD stehen übrigens auf DOWN , was nach dem steilen Anstieg der letzten Tage auch klar ist........

..dass die Shorties noch ihren Teil dazu beitragen, ist auch klar.....ELANklar....


..also, alles klar im ELAN-Boot......let`s wait for the conference in july....

klare Grüße
bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.433.037 von surga am 03.07.08 18:02:44

Danke--war SEHR nett mit einer meiner 5 Freundinnen--viel gelcht + gelästert....und es war nur 1,5 Glas Pinot + VIEL H2O

Elanians msg # 9687 7/3/2008 1:31:12 PM
By: ATmouse

A few mouse musings

Well, it's been quite a fun run recently, hasn't it?

Now we patiently (speak for yourself, John Alden) wend our way toward ICAD, and the July 29th presentation of the detailed Phase 2 data for Big Bappy.

This wee rodent may have been the only IV KoolAid drinker who consistently predicted that the top-line data would be released in the middle of June. Actually, I predicted June 15 until I realized it was a Sunday- then changed my prediction to Monday, June 16- and was wrong by 24 hours.

That press release was clearly written by a bunch of lawyers- probably dominated by Wyeth lawyers who have been dealing with Phen-Fen (sp?) lawsuits for a long and expensive while. No way they're going to allow any possibility of Bappy lawsuits, if they can help it- everything but the kitchen sink went into that PR.

Only someone following Elan closely could have understood just how positive that release really was. And apparently a group of more conservative institutions understood it well- and are buying with both fists, as we speak.

The detailed Phase 2 data won't be similarly "veiled and protected" by the corporate lawyers.

For that reason, its disclosure is likely to unleash a veritable explosion in the stock market- I hope and expect as much..

Whether that explosion will all happen on July 29, or more gradually over the next 3 weeks as things start to leak out, is anybody's guess.

Meanwhile, the shorts do not appear to have given up their futile battle- aided and abetted by our sleazeball pal AF and his friends- to push the price down so they can cover at prices much lower than the mid-30's.

The good news is that they cannot win this battle- there are too many institutions ready to buy at current prices- and when they finally are forced to put up the white flag, it will cost them a (bigger) fortune. Anyone who has any compassion for these people (I don't) might say a prayer or two. They'll need much more than prayers, clearly.

Meanwhile, we will probably learn more about Tysabri's uptake on or about Thursday, July 24. That should be fun, too.

I wonder if anyone noticed that Curly is now admitting freely that his 100,000/late 2010 prediction is going to look like he was sandbagging. That's why someone (who sounded suspiciously like a rodent) asked him the "high titer approval timeline" question at the recent Biogen AGM.

Speaking of that AGM, it's not clear how the Icahn drama is going to play out from here. What does seem clear, as it has to many of us for some time, is that Tysabri is Biogen's only real hope for earnings growth in the near-term. This, despite the fact that they piss away the better part of a BILLION Dollars every year on research- with NOTHING to show for it. Incredible!!! And despite the fact that Curly has had one foot on the brake for some time- I hope he's taken it off by now. He can't be that stupid, can he?

And where oh where have our resident IV idiots (zzzidiot, maryfetter, Monica Childs and their pals) gone? Their collective agenda cannot be any clearer at this point, can it? They probably meet regularly with AF, in Manhattan or nearby.

Anyway- as we anticipate a long weekend, with the shorts still playing games as we sprak, it's fun to reflect on how interesting this story has been, on how many good friends we've made thanks to Elan, and on how exciting it's going to be over the next 3-4 weeks, and beyond.

Elan is truly making medical history.

What a story!

The very best to all my many pals,

Bob

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.435.538 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 04.07.08 00:18:54

...ich schenke mir ein "a"---und noch einen kleinen Sherry....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.432.760 von surga am 03.07.08 17:35:27

habe bei ELAN größeres Potential gesehen.

Eine Übernahme hatte ich nicht erwartet.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 248916 7/4/2008 12:48:44 PM
By: Powershares_ie

Elan closed significantly higher in London & Dublin (than last night's close in NY)

Elan closed at €22.48 in London = $35.29 (at 1.5698 exchange rate):
http://uk.betastreaming.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ELA.L

Elan closed in Dublin at €21.90 = $34.38:
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ELN.I&t=1d&c=

Both considerably higher than yesterday’s close on Wall Street of $33.72.

Enjoy the weekend

[Bachalor]

fein dass es wenigstens noch ein paar sehr wenige lesenswerte threads auf wo gibt



mit alles mir bekannten namen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.447.302 von Bachalor am 06.07.08 20:41:51

Grüss Dich!

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.447.318 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 06.07.08 20:50:09

ihr habt feine nette truppe hier

wenn ich mal wieder in surgas stadt fahre,könnte ich bei berni frühstücken unterwegs

und surga hat hoffentlich das zocken mit aktien aufgegeben
und kümmert sich um aktie wo er ahnung hat


ihr bekommt nochmal e.mail

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.447.334 von Bachalor am 06.07.08 20:54:49

Hi Bachalor! Gruß Dich

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.447.334 von Bachalor am 06.07.08 20:54:49

Hi Bachalor .....wieder mal im ELAN Thread ???

.....hier sind wir als WO Crew mittlerweile schon einige Jährchen zusammen.....

....und irgendwie macht es immer noch Spaß....

Ich hoffe dir geht es gut....

Grüße bernie55

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

MOIN!


Bull/Bear Report -- Elan Pharmaceuticals - A miracle for patients and investors alike?If ELN delivers in later stage results we could see this stock double from here. Add in some positive sentiment and who knows where this goes.
http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/2008/07/bullbear_report_el…


Psychology of the market is everything and right now that psychology is decidedly negative. As such, stock values are depressed as participants toss the baby with the bathwater.

Even the positive stories are seeing dampened enthusiasm. Take our stock of the week, Elan Corp. plc (ELN). The company announced success with an early trial of its Alzheimer drug, bapineuzumab, earlier in the month.

Shares moved higher on the news, but not nearly what they would have done had there been positive sentiment in the market.

Think about it. A biotechnology company shows positive success for a drug that aids treatment of a very horrible disease affecting millions and potentially millions more down the road.

Can you say blockbuster?

Shoot, in a bull market this stock would be skyrocketing right now. Not ELN.

Learn more about Elan's latest drug, and find out how our bloggers come down in this week's Bull/Bear Report.

Oh sure the stock rallied, but the move was a dud in my humble opinion.

Indeed, there are risks associated with ELN, most importantly later stage trial results. Should those fail, the stock has downside risk. That may be true, but because the stock only rallied modestly the downside risk is considerably less.

I don’t think those trials will fail. ELN is a proven winner and they have done this before. Remember its success with MS drug, Tysabri?

I’d be willing to speculate on ELN at current levels. Here are your opinions on the long and short side of ELN:

The Bull Case - Jim Van Meerten

Buy Elan before you forget! I've been following Elan Pharmaceuticals for some time but not for their drugs. I used to live in Gwinnett County Georgia and back then Donald Panoz President and Chairman of Elan was buying up land in Gwinnett to build a winery. I visited it from the beginning and really liked the wine.

Recently, Elan began coming up on my screeners with a 96% buy on BarCharts. The stock began trading above it's 20, 50 & 100 day moving averages which are part of my required litmus test. When Ken Kam started mentioning the stock I knew I had to look deeper into it. Every place I look there are positive stories, when that happens I start to worry.

As boomers approach their 70's they start to worry about quality of life. They see drugs are controlling a lot of the causes for premature death: Weight, Diabetes, High Blood Pressure and Cholesterol. Many of their older relatives and parents are living longer but sliding into a dark hole of forgetfulness and death called Alzheimer's. They are really afraid of this disease more than any other.

Elan's trial of Bapineuzumab - nicknamed Bappy - may offer protection and cure. Good trial results are all over the news. You may find boomers taking it just because.

Here's my caution: I'd buy the stock on its technicals alone but it really has a story being covered by the news and a product that may have one of the largest markets in history. Why the caution?

I've seen press releases before about new wonder drugs. Sometimes later phase trials don't pan out or someone else comes along with an cheaper, more effective drug just when you're about to come to market. I worry that Elan may not be able to dominate market share when this drug goes into production.

Buy the stock and ride it on up but PLEASE, PLEASE protect yourself with a trailing stop loss in case the drug gets blind sided by later trial results or competition.

The Bear Case - Don Barrett

Elan Corporation is a neuroscience based biotechnology company located in Ireland and the U.S. ELN operates in two segments: Biopharmaceuticals and Elan Drug Technologies. The biopharmaceuticals segment is engaged in the research of drugs for the treatment of Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, multiple sclerosis, Crohn's disease, and chronic pain. The Elan segment is involved in drug optimization and clinical trial management.

Before we delve into ELN’s latest entry bapineuzumab to fight Alzheimer's disease, I would like to show what is involved in bringing a drug from the discovery to when the new drug may be marketed.

After a new drug is discovered the first step is preclinical studies to establish a scientific basis to show the drug is reasonably safe and that it may be effective in treating a particular disease. Then the drug enters Phase I which is the first time the drug is administered to humans and this phase is just to test for risks and possible side effects. Phase I will usually have less than 100 volunteers. Phase II usually enrolls several hundred volunteers with the actual condition to set dosage requirements and to look for signs of effectiveness on the condition. Phase III trials enroll several hundred to several thousand volunteers at different sites to test the effectiveness and safety of the drug, and this data is what the FDA will use in deciding to approve a drug. Phase IV is used after a drug is approved for marketing to monitor the health of the individuals using the new drug and to monitor how effective the drug has been on the treatment of the condition.

ELNs new drug bapineuzumab has just entered Phase III and may not be marketed until 2010. Although ELN has several drugs on the market, bapineuzumab has the potential to be a blockbuster for ELN. Currently in the U.S. there are 5.2 million Alzheimer’s sufferers and over 26 million worldwide, and this number is projected to grow to over 106 million by 2050. The Alzheimer's Association reports there are currently 150 clinical studies on Alzheimer's being conducted.

Even though ELN’s new drug has had mixed results, the stock hit a 52 week high of $35.96 Friday. It is my opinion based on Elan’s current drug portfolio and the fact that bapineuzumab may not be on the market until 2010, I would not be an investor in ELN at this time. My view is that ELN is at a 52 week high and between now and the marketing of bapineuzumab in 2010 or so ELN will be going for less than the current $36 price. I would also say that bapineuzumab may very well be a blockbuster for ELN as we near 2010 but I would put my capital to work in other places for now and keep a close eye on ELN and bapineuzumab for results on the Phase III trials.

Indeed there is risk associated with owning ELN at elevated prices. Investors can use stop losses to mitigate risk as Van Meerten suggested. In my opinion the reward is well worth the risk.

If ELN delivers in later stage results we could see this stock double from here. Add in some positive sentiment and who knows where this goes.

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.448.167 von bernie55 am 07.07.08 08:27:12

weisst
ich suche mir seit jahren user aus
wo ich für menschlicu i.o. halte
sehr standfest bei aktien sind
und besonders
andere user nie beleidigen

wenn ich meine sachen alle bereinigt habe
werde ich mit sehr vielen usern
darunter sehr bekannte personen
etwas starten
egal wer was ist,was er arbeitet usw
hauptsache es passt menschlich

würde mich freuen euch dabei zu haben

surga weiss da schon einiges

jeder hilft jedem.ob beruf,krankheit usw


aber erst wird alles private geregelt



hier habt ihr seit einiger zeit auch grund mit der aktie zufrieden zu sein

[surga]

wie aus dem Verstecktloch rausgekrochen
3 TagesChart

[noogmann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.447.302 von Bachalor am 06.07.08 20:41:51

Hallo auch ich grüße Dich

Gruß Noogmann

[surga]

Teva Pharmaceutical verfehlt Studienziel bei "Copaxone"
07.07.2008 - 14:55

JERUSALEM (Dow Jones)--Der israelische Pharmahersteller Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd hat bei einer Studie seines Multiple-Sklerose-Medikaments "Copaxone" einen Rückschlag erlitten. Eine Phase-3-Studie habe gezeigt, dass die Verdopplung der Dosis auf 40 mg keine Verbesserung der Rückfallrate bringe, teilte das Unternehmen am Montag mit.

Die Ergebnisse der Studie sind eine Enttäuschung für den weltgrößten Generikahersteller, der gehofft hatte, das Wachstum in der Behandlung Multipler Sklerose mit einer Verdopplung der Dosis zu unterstützen. Im vorbörslichen Handel gaben die Aktien daraufhin um 6% auf 44,36 USD nach.

Die Abgabe der kleineren Dosis ist in 51 Staaten zugelassen, darunter Nordamerika und Europa. In Europa wird das Medikament von Teva und Sanofi-Aventis SA vermarktet.

Im Mai hatte Teva von einem 35%-igen Anstieg des Copaxone-Umsatzes auf 542 Mio USD im ersten Quartal berichtet. Multiple Sklerose ist die verbreitetste Ursache neurologischer Leiden bei jungen Erwachsenen und betrifft mehr als eine Million Menschen weltweit.

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.451.938 von noogmann am 07.07.08 16:18:12

kenn dich aber nicht
zumindest den namen nicht

[surga]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080707/20080707005506.html?.v=1

Elan Announces Webcast of Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Monday July 7, 9:00 am ET

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Elan Corporation, plc announced today that it will host a conference call on Thursday, July 24, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), 1:30 p.m. British Summer Time (BST) with the investment community to discuss Elan’s second quarter 2008 financial results, which will be released before the U.S. and European financial markets open.
.......

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.451.590 von surga am 07.07.08 15:45:42

......wie aus dem Verstecktloch rausgekrochen....

......aber HALLO, surga.......habe ich ja noch nie gehört....

...Verstecktloch.....

.....du Verstecker.....

Grüße bernie55, der andere Verstecker..

[noogmann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.451.973 von Bachalor am 07.07.08 16:20:54

nana kommen beide aus der Wetterau

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.452 von noogmann am 07.07.08 17:03:11

ich nicht

ich wohne
nähe rasthof weiskirchen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.450.513 von Bachalor am 07.07.08 13:58:40

...das hört sich ja sehr spannend an....!

Ich freu mich auch immer integere,nette und positive Menschen zu treffen, im "echten Leben" und hier im Netz....ich habe SOOOO SEHR genug von Blendern,Aufschneidern und Besserwissern....!!!!!!:O

In diesem Sinne auf gute Aktien (z.B.E LAN) und spannende Projekte!

Grüsse in die Runde! Birgit

[noogmann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.504 von Bachalor am 07.07.08 17:07:24

------ Nachricht von Bachalor am 08.01.2008 16:21 ------

kleinkarben

groß karben

[Bachalor]

surga

schau mal wer das chef ist

http://www.imsat.co.uk/

du weisst ja
wen wir getroffen hatten vor dem mittagessen bei dir


es ist wohl die beste forschungseinrichtung was es zur zeit gibt
angeschlossen an ein 6000 bett krankenhaus

dort werden auf kürzestem wege alle 3 phasen gemacht


auf den britischen inseln forschen alle firmen mit kapital
weil diese einen einmaligen vorteil haben

es gibt nur 1 krankenkasse
und alle werden von geburt an registriert
jede arznei,krankheit usw
das erleichtert z.b die ewige suche nach möglichen probanten um lichtjahre



berni

ich fahre demnächst nach schweinfurt-amberg-fürth
um 3 leute zu besuchen
die möchte ich u.a. als mods in einem privaten AC haben

ich melde mich vorher bei dir zum frühstücken an

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.563 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.07.08 17:12:20

ich gebe ehrlich zu
habe zur zeit auch viele probleme,aber dazu steh ich
und wenn es einer ehrlich wissen will,bekommt er es gesagt
ich hasse es,wenn leute hinter dem rücken reden
oder sich 2. id nehmen um andere zu erniedgigen
aber habe mir eines geschworen
niemals auf provogationen zu reagieren
und dies auch nicht andere machen zu lassen

welche user hier z.b einen bb haben
und dies nicht bekanntmachen müssten
ist schon zum

ich möchte,dass jeder jeden kennt wenn er will
und jeder jedem unverbindlich hilft


surga z.b war auch sauer auf mich beim 1. treffen
habe auf den tisch gehauen

wusste nicht,dass man das bei ihnen nicht macht



noogmann
ich rodgau,noch

[Bachalor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.563 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.07.08 17:12:20

ich schreibe euch e-mail
in etwa,wovon ich träume
wenn ich es hier schreibe,werde ich aus dem verkehr gezogen

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Investors Remain Pessimistic on Soaring Biotech Company Elan Corporation
Examining technical and sentiment indicators for Elan Corporation (ELN)
by Colleen S. King ([e-mail]) 7/7/2008 10:23 AM


Keywords: ELN stocks options

Elan Corporation (ELN: View sentiment for ELNsentiment, chart, options) is a neuroscience-based biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets advanced therapies in neurology, severe pain, infectious diseases, and autoimmune diseases. The company operates in 2 segments: Biopharmaceuticals and Elan Drug Technologies (EDT). The Biopharmaceuticals component focuses mainly on Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, Crohn's disease, and severe chronic pain related efforts. The EDT segment concentrates mainly on drug optimization technologies.

The company's first-quarter losses were higher than those expected by analysts. A loss of 18 cents per share was reported by the company on April 24, with revenue of $214.7 million; analysts were expecting a loss of 15 cents per share on revenue of $231.55 million. For ELN's second quarter, slated for Thursday, July 24, analysts are expecting losses of 12 cents per share.

Shares of ELN have been in a long-term uptrend. Since March of this year, the stock has grown 83%.


Looking at the longer term, the shares have surged 292% since November 2005. What's more, the equity is trading well above its 10-week and 20-week moving averages.


While the shares of ELN have been moving upward, brokerage firms don't support the stock. According to Zacks, only 1 firm rates the shares a "strong buy," while the remaining analysts are split: 3 designate ELN a "hold" and 3 recommend "strong sell." However, as recently as June 23, Goldman Sachs added Elan to its conviction "buy" list.

Furthermore Thomson Financial reports a consensus 12-month price-target for ELN of $22.66 per share, a 33% expected drop from its current trading price. With the stock breaking new 52-week highs almost daily, upgrades from the Street's analysts or higher price-targets could provide additional buying pressure for ELN.

Short-term option player sentiment is also pessimistic. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.09 ranks above 99% of all those taken during the past year. This is significant because short-term option players have been more bearishly aligned only 1% of the time during the past 52 weeks.

What's more, peak call open interest numbers 32,210 contracts on the July 30 option, which is 11% in the money. Meanwhile, the July 22.50 put numbers 27,900 contracts, and the call at the same strike price numbers 17,761 contracts, which is 33% in the money. Investors are expecting the shares to move lower, considering the lack of out-of-the-money calls.
SHORT INTEREST

Short sellers are also betting that the stock is going to start falling. These bears have sold short more than 26.82 million shares, accounting for 5.79% of the company's float. With the stock in an uptrend, if these pessimistic investors begin to buy back their shares, it could take more than 7 days at the stock's average daily trading volume for these bets to unwind. This could leave ample potential for a short-covering rally and add more buying pressure to the shares.

Overall, despite the stock's uptrend, investors remain unconvinced of the stock's strength. If the shares are able to continue upward, the large amount of pessimism they are facing should begin to unwind. From a contrarian view, the combination of growing prices and bearish sentiment has bullish implications.

For more commentary on today's market-moving news from me and my colleagues Andrea, Jocelynn, Laura, Mark, Elizabeth, and Joseph, please visit our Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog section throughout the trading day.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Teva fast 10% im Minus

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.122 von surga am 07.07.08 16:33:22

Elan Announces Webcast of Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results
Monday July 7, 9:00 am ET


BIIIB Q2 = July 22nd
Biogen Idec to Report Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results on July 22, 2008
Monday July 7, 12:49 pm ET

CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB - News) today announced it will report second quarter 2008 financial results on Tuesday, July 22, 2008 before the financial markets open.
ADVERTISEMENT


Following the release of the financials, the Company will host a live webcast where Biogen Idec management will discuss the financial results, at 8:30 am ET. To access the live webcast, please go to Biogen Idec’s website at www.biogenidec.com. Following the live webcast, an archived version of the call will be available at the same URL, for one month.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=249406&pt=…


...natürlich...wie immer... ...BIIB vor ELAN...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.453.818 von bernie55 am 07.07.08 19:13:18

...natürlich...wie immer... ...BIIB vor ELAN...


Elan Corporation, Thursday, July 24, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET), 1:30 p.m. British Summer Time (BST)

Biogen Idec Inc, Tuesday, July 22, 2008 before the financial markets open.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.297 von bernie55 am 07.07.08 16:48:08

deutsch ist doch nicht so einfach gellllllll, Bernie?
indonesisch ist viel einfacher

:

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.454.269 von surga am 07.07.08 19:58:23

Was heisst denn "Elan ist unser Börsenschätzchen" auf indonesisch???

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.452.684 von Bachalor am 07.07.08 17:22:32

wer hat kein Problem?? Ich glaube, jeder hat ein
Betrachte doch das Problem als eine Aufgabe, die gelöst werden möchte. Dann wird alles einfacher

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.454.291 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 07.07.08 20:00:41

ELAN bursa kesayangan kita (gesprochen wie deutsch)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.454.406 von surga am 07.07.08 20:12:16

SUPER--das speichere ich jetzt ab und lerne es auswendig....



Jungs,ich freu mich über das Nachfolgende....ob ich wohl meine Schadenfreude "transformieren" sollte????


News for 'ELN'

News for 'ELN' - (=DJ Teva Shares Slide On Copaxone's Phase III Study Setback)

By Robert Daniel

Shares of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) tumbled Monday and rivals Biogen Idec Corp. (BIIB) and Elan Corp. (ELN) gained as investors digested fresh trial results reported by the Israeli drug maker.

In a Phase III study, a 40-milligram dose of multiple-sclerosis treatment Copaxone - Teva's flagship drug - was found to be no more effective in reducing the relapse rate than the already-approved dose of 20 milligrams, the company said.

The 40-milligram dose did maintain the lower dose's profile for safety and tolerability in treating the relapsing-remitting form of the disease known as MS, Teva said in a statement.

However, Teva's U.S.-listed shares skidded 9.8% to $42.61 in recent trading, after taking a beating on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange earlier in the day.

Teva's first-quarter sales of Copaxone rose 35% from the year-earlier period to $542 million. That total is nearly a fifth of Teva's total sales for the quarter.

A leading treatment for MS, Copaxone competes primarily against Avonex from Biogen Idec, Rebif from Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Merck KgaA (MKGAY), and Betaseron from Bayer AG (BAYRY).

Shares of Biogen Idec traded up 2% at $59.06 during an otherwise bearish session for the biomedical sector.

The company also markets a newer drug with Elan Corp. called Tysabri, which could prove to be a major competitor to Copaxone. Shares of Elan were likewise up, gaining 3% to $34.75.

MS, a disease of the central nervous system, destroys the myelin sheath, the coating that protects nerves. When that sheath is damaged or destroyed, "nerve impulses carrying messages from the brain and spinal cord may short-circuit," reducing or destroying a person's abilities, according to the Multiple Sclerosis Association of America's Web site.

Many doctors say it is an autoimmune disease, in which infection-fighting white blood cells effectively turn on and attack normal cells.

The randomized double-blind study was conducted in 136 locations in North America, Argentina, Europe and Israel, and assessed 1,155 patients with relapsing-remitting MS, Teva said. The trial's main clinical-outcome measure was the rate of confirmed relapses.

Of the patients taking the 20-milligram dose of Copaxone, generically glatiramer acetate, 78% had no relapse through the study, Teva said. Among patients who completed a year of treatment with the 20-milligram dose, the annualized relapse rate was 0.27, which Teva called "very low."

And the drug reduced the disease's inflammatory activity, as measured by magnetic resonance imaging, to an extent that Teva called "remarkable."

The company said that it would continue to analyze the latest study to better understand how the 40-milligram dose of Copaxone affects patients.

Copaxone is cleared for marketing in 51 countries, including throughout Europe as well as the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Australia and Israel.

Teva is also doing more to fight MS. At the end of June, Teva and Antisense Therapeutics (ANP.AU) said that a Phase IIa study of ATL/TV1102 "significantly reduced disease activity in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis."

Based on the results, Teva said it would do more preclinical and clinical research before continuing to a Phase III study. Meantime, Teva said it would pay Antisense $4 million for meeting a milestone.

The ATL/TV1102 drug was discovered by Isis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ISIS), which licensed it to Antisense. In turn, Teva and Antisense have a license accord related to the drug.

-By Robert Daniel; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=SiSYx5wL2CSRXALY47HWLw%3D%3… You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2008 14:25 ET (18:25 GMT)

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.454.406 von surga am 07.07.08 20:12:16

"Elan ist unser Börsenschätzchen"

ELAN bursa kesayangan kita - indonesisch

ELAN is onze schatje van de beurs - niederländisch

ELAN is our honey of the stock exchange - englisch

ELAN est notre cherie de la bourse - französisch

幹勁 主义者 我 乖乖 证券交易所 - chinesisch

[bernie55]

..hier eine ganz nette Tabelle zur prognostizierten und realen TY Vermarktung

..somit liegen wir zur Zeit bei ca. 150%igen Zuwachs........sollte diese Entwicklung eingehalten werden können, dann wären wir schon im Sept.09 bei ca 100000 Tysabri Patienten

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=249283&pt=…


Forecast 100K by 2010

4000/qtr 80%/yr 100%/yr 125%/yr 150%/yr Actual Uptake
0 Jun-07 12900 12900 12900 12900 12900 12900
1 Sep-07 16900 14942 15341 15799 16221 17000 4100
2 Dec-07 20900 17307 18243 19350 20397 20550 3550
3 Mar-08 24900 20047 21695 23699 25647 26100 5550
4 Jun-08 28900 23220 25800 29025 32250 6150

5 Sep-08 32900 26896 30682 35548 40552 8302
6 Dec-08 36900 31153 36487 43538 50992 10439
7 Mar-09 40900 36084 43390 53322 64119 13127
8 Jun-09 44900 41796 51600 65306 80625 16506
9 Sep-09 48900 48412 61363 79983 101381 20756
10 Dec-09 52900 56075 72973 97959 127479 26099
11 Mar-10 56900 64951 86781 119975 160297 32817
12 Jun-10 60900 75233 103200 146939 201563 41266
13 Sep-10 64900 87142 122726 179963 253451 51889
14 Dec-10 68900 100935 145947 220409 318698 65247

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.458.215 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 10:58:03

..hier schreibt nun NoBuddyNoz aus dem IV Board , der von Statistik wohl ein bisschen " Kennung " hat....


Some of the numbers in your "Actual" column are off. Did you intend to use the 'total patients on therapy' numbers, or the 'commercial patients only' numbers? Using 'total patients on therapy' probably makes more sense when attempting to gauge new scripts.

The 26100 as of 3/08 and 17000 as of 9/07 accurately reflect the total patients on therapy as of those dates. For 12/31/07, the correct number is 21,100. For 6/07 we need to do an adjustment. The total number as of mid-July was 14,000, and at that point, Ty was adding approximately 300 per week. Subtracting 600 for the 2 weeks in July puts total patients on therapy as of 6/07 at about 13,400.

The corrected numbers produced the following gains.

Date ........ TPOT ..... New ..... % Inc
Jun 07 ..... 13400
Sep 07 ..... 17000 ..... 3600 ..... 26.87
Dec 07 ..... 21100 ..... 4100 ..... 24.18
Mar 08 ..... 26100 ..... 5000 ..... 23.70

===== "Hope our growth rate stays over 150%."

If an annual growth of 150% is to be achieved by consistent quarterly gains, then a quarterly growth rate of 25.74% is required. As you can see, Ty surpassed this number in 3Q07 but fell short the next two quarters.

In order to produce 25.74% quarterly patient growth from 1Q08, Ty needed to add 6,718 patients during the past quarter, for a total of 32,818.

In order to produce 150% annual patient growth from 2Q07, Ty needed to add 20,100 patients during the past year, for a total of 33,500. Since 12,700 were already added, an additional 7,400 are required from the past quarter to reach 150% total.

If Ty actually added another 6,000 in Q2 (as has been speculated by some on the board), that would be a gain of 22.99% over the 26,100 ... which equates to a respectable 128.8% annual growth ... but far shy of the 150% you state as current.

The oft mentioned "inflection point" needs to be hit before 150% growth will be a reality ... perhaps we'll find out on July 24th that it's already been hit.

Hope this helps,
NoBuddy

PS - Recall that Ty had to add 6,718 patients this past quarter to attain the 25.74% quarterly. Completely by chance, the 6,718 just happens to be the quarterly addition currently required for Ty to reach 100K by the end of 2010 (99,998 if you want to be exact).

Random

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=249601&pt=…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.457.888 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 10:24:10

woah!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.459.531 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 08.07.08 13:12:35

woah!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.459.531 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 08.07.08 13:12:35

aber richtig!!!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.459.676 von Poppholz am 08.07.08 13:26:18

na,davon gehe ich aber auch aus!!!Unser Bernie wird dann in unserer Companie der Manager für Auslandskommunikation und Finanzen(weil er auch so gut umrechnen kann....)....;ich übernehme die innere Kommunikation,Surga die Distribution in den asiatischen Bereich und Du Poppi musst dann leider das Kerngeschäft (das ist das wo der Mehrwert geschaffen wird)managen...!!!OK???....ach ja,die Hexe müssen wir dann noch für den Bereich Forschung und Entwicklung gewinnen.....

[Poppholz]

das geht ja richtig rauf und runter mit unserem Baby:

[Poppholz]

Finanzen.net
Elan Ersteinschätzung
Dienstag 8. Juli 2008, 16:26 Uhr

Rating-Update:
New York (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten von Cowen and Company stufen die Aktie von Elan (ISIN IE0003072950/ WKN 903801) in einer Ersteinschätzung mit "neutral" ein. (08.07.2008/ac/a/u)
Analyse-Datum: 08.07.2008



na dann.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.461.290 von Poppholz am 08.07.08 15:58:14

BIIB geht ja richtig ab, was ist da los?

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.459.771 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 08.07.08 13:36:59

Unser Bernie wird dann in unserer Companie der Manager für Auslandskommunikation und Finanzen
..Blablablablablabla in Kauderwelsch..

ich übernehme die innere Kommunikation
....Oohhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm mit Heiligenschein...

Surga die Distribution in den asiatischen Bereich
......chop suey 雜碎 / 杂碎 a la distrubuti...

Poppi musst dann leider das Kerngeschäft (das ist das wo der Mehrwert geschaffen wird) managen
....Pfirsichstampfen auf Zehenspitzen...

die Hexe ... für den Bereich Forschung und Entwicklung
...denk...denk....forsch....forsch....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.463.045 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 18:05:38

Ich stelle somit / hiermit den Antrag auf Umbenennung bzw. Erweiterung unserer Company.....

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.462.975 von surga am 08.07.08 18:00:15

BIIB geht ja richtig ab, was ist da los?


Tuesday July 8, 10:09 am ET

Biotechnology stocks open higher on rising market as Fed tries to alleviate bank concerns

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of biotechnology companies opened higher Tuesday as the broader market rose after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank might extend its lending efforts to investment banks.

Here's how several key biotechnology stocks performed Tuesday:

Gilead Sciences Inc., up 66 cents at $52.34.

Amgen Inc., up 8 cents to $50.35.

Biogen Idec Inc., up $1.09 to $59.96.

Genentech Inc., up 96 cents to $76.77.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080708/opening_glance_biotechnology.…

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.463.045 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 18:05:38

nach offizieller Ernennung meiner Position als Distributor in den asiatischen Bereich, musst Ihr bei mir erstmal ein Kochkurs absolvieren

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1MfDJU8peA

Bernie, Dein Antrag auf Erweiterung und Umbenennung auf PCBBS wird angenommen

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.463.045 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 18:05:38

ich meinte, würde mich freuen, wenn andere Mitglieder einverstanden sind

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.463.240 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 18:22:10

OK--ich nehme auch an....

ELN msg # 249753 7/8/2008 11:27:38 AM
By: stockhound4

My Last Rant On AAB-001 Viability And Market Potential

The company has already told the world the results, people just need to listen!!!!!!



We are stat sig for ADAS-COG, NTSB and MMSE and not stat sig for DAD on the Apoe non carriers, that’s roughly 50% of the total patient population of 5 million people in the US alone today ROW brings the total to 8 – 9 million patients.



For Apoe carriers we were not stat sig but they know exactly why and that’s why the phase III trial is designed the way it is they would not have started the phase III trial and spent 200 - 250 million if they thought it would fail.



FDA and EMEA would not have bought off on the Phase III trial and trial design if they thought it would fail.



Elan and Wyeth would not have started a trial in Japan if they thought it would fail.



Elan and Wyeth would not be doing a clinical trial on a subcutaneous formulation if they thought it would fail.



Elan would not be building a 300 million dollar biologics manufacturing facility outside of Dublin Ireland if they thought it would fail.



Elan and Wyeth would not be hiring people left and right to commercialize their Alzheimers drugs if they thought it would fail.



Elan would not have taken leases on the two new buildings in South San Francisco to house all of the people they are hiring to support the commercialization of their Alzheimers drugs if they thought it would fail.



Do you see the common theme???


Alzheimers market economics with an already diagnosed patient population of 8 -9 million people in 2008, by 2010 it is estimated that 454,000 (227,000 Apoe Non-Carrier assuming 50% split Apoe vs Non Apoe) new patients per year in the US alone will be diagnosed. At 10,000$ Per patient per year we are looking at potential revenues of 20 – 22.5+ Billion with only 50% market penetration in Apoe non-carriers, with revenue growth of 1.2 Billion (again 50% market penetration for newly diagnosed patients) per year.


Hound

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 249764 7/8/2008 11:49:01 AM
By: splaylaywahtheepi

aab-001 market potential stockhound

We always thought the potential for aab-001 was huge - that it would capture a huge % of the 15m AD patient base (because it works.)

But now, the potential is far more vast:

30m patients with MCI (CAA prophylactic justified by 80% of MCI patients going on to AD or stroke)
15m patients with type 2 diabetes
4m patients with glaucoma

And cardiovascular indications are still a possibility.

Pretty large patient base that can be served better than any existing treatment.

[bernie55]

ELN - Elan Corporation, plc

35.69 + 1.46

ELN - Elan Corporation, plc

35.69 + 1.46

ELN - Elan Corporation, plc

35.69 + 1.46

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.465.568 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 22:11:03

Cowen analyst: Elan drug could be a blockbuster

Tuesday July 8, 2:13 pm ET

Cowen sees Elan's Alzheimer's disease drug as potential blockbuster, but years from market

NEW YORK (AP) -- Biotechnology company Elan Corp. could reap blockbuster rewards from its developing Alzheimer's disease drug bapineuzumab, but the drug likely won't hit the market for years, a Cowen and Co. analyst said Tuesday.

American Depository Shares of the Irish company rose 74 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $34.95 in afternoon trading.

The stock has been on the upswing since the middle of June, when the company said results of a midstage trial showed bapineuzumab helped Alzheimer's patients who lack a certain gene -- a large subgroup of the patient population. Shares reached $36.08 on July 2, their highest point in more than seven years.

"Elan's lead drug development candidate, bapineuzumab, could be the first disease modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease, targeting a multibillion dollar market opportunity," Cowen analyst Ian Sanderson said in a note to investors. He estimates potential sales of $7 billion to $8 billion in 2015.

However, with the drug only midway through development and not likely to reach market until 2011, Sanderson said Elan's stock has limited near-term upside potential.

He started coverage of shares at "Neutral."

Shares of Elan's development partner, Madison, N.J.-based Wyeth, rose $1.38, or 2.9 percent, to $48.96. The stock has traded between $38.39 and $58 over the last 52 weeks.


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080708/elan_analyst_note.html?.v=1

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.465.568 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 22:11:03

36,07$ after hour!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.463.588 von surga am 08.07.08 18:51:13

von mir kommt ebenfalls ein

OK

[bernie55]

....mal wieder was von der EDT..

Goodbody
Elan (Add, Closing Price $35.69)

Positive results on Focalin build on the EDT franchise

Analyst: Ian Hunter

Novartis yesterday announced that a head-to-head study between its Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder drug, Focalin XR, and J&J's Concerta found that the former provided faster and better symptom control. This superior control was demonstrated from 30 minutes to six hours post dose, in both primary and secondary endpoints. Focalin was also the only drug that provided onset of effect as early as 30 minutes after dosing. Focalin XR uses Elan's proprietary SODAS drug delivery technology, which in this particular application, allows for 50% of the drug to be released immediately, with the remaining 50% released c.4 hours later. In the $2bn plus ADHD market, Concerta is one of the leading drugs, along with Shire's Adderall and Eli Lilly's Strattera.

This result is positive for Focalin in its drive for market share and an incremental positive for Elan, in terms of
1) potentially increasing the royalty revenue stream associated with the product; and
2) promoting the effectiveness of the technologies available from the Elan Drug Technology (EDT) division.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=250124&pt=…

[bernie55]

ncb
Elan $35.69 BUY Recruitment in Progress Across Phase III Trials; EDT Technology Enables
Early Onset of Effect
• Wyeth has commenced recruitment of patients across both international (ex-US) Phase III studies for bapineuzumab (AAB-001) according to details on the ClinicialTrials.gov website.
Wyeth is responsible for the two international Phase III studies, with Elan responsible for the two US studies. Both the US and international studies have been divided into two distinct sub-populations - Apo-e4 carriers and non-carriers. Wyeth commenced recruitment for the larger 1250 patient study of Apo-e4 non-carriers in late June and has now started to recruit patients in the 800 patient study of Apo-e4 carriers.
Elan dosed the first patient in the US Phase III studies in December 2007. For Wyeth the enrolment process has been more complex given that it has to be undertaken on a
country by country basis.
• Separately, a study published in the Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology has shown that Novartis’ Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) medication Focalin XR, which utilises Elan’s SODAS technology, provides early onset of effect post dose.
SODAS (Spheroidal Oral Drug Absorption System) has been developed by Elan’s EDT division to supply 50% of the dose immediately, with the remainder released 4 hours later to provide maximum peaks at 1.5 and 6.5 hours respectively. The early onset of effect for Focalin XR was seen as early as 30 minutes
post dose utilising the SKAMP rating scale to evaluate attention and behaviour.
Novartis is to seek a revised label for Focalin XR on the basis of the findings. A revision to Focalin’s label would be an incremental positive for Elan’s EDT business.

• Elan report Q2 results on 24 July.


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=250121&pt=…

[Poppholz]

solche Steigerungen und keiner schreibt dazu?

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.471.280 von Poppholz am 09.07.08 15:57:16

je nach Werbebanner sind die Zahlen hinter dem Komma nicht zu erkennen.

Somit hier noch eine "Kleinversion"

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.471.280 von Poppholz am 09.07.08 15:57:16

solche Steigerungen und keiner schreibt dazu?


..nö....viel lieber schauen...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.463.240 von bernie55 am 08.07.08 18:22:10

BETR: Umbenennung bzw. Erweiterung unserer Company

BM von bernie55 an Cyberhexe

Hallo XXXXXXX

...............
..am Anfang war die PBB Company( Poppie,bernie, Birgit )
..jetzt ist surga dabei = PBBS
..und jetzt fehlt eigentlich noch unser " Kopf " für die Wissenschaftsabteilung.....

wer könnte das anders sein als.......na ??..
...genau.....CYBERHEXE !!!

..deshalb habe ich einen Antrag auf Aufnahme und zugleich Umbenennung unserer Company gestellt..

..siehe #19918 +#19919 (ELAN - 1.000 % for the LONG-time)

PCBBS Company

...meine Frage an dich...

..nimmst du deine Wahl an ???

..mit einem JA wird gerechnet.....

..nach dem Motto...du hast keine Chance, aber nutze sie....

Liebe Grüße
XXXXXXXX

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.471.597 von bernie55 am 09.07.08 16:25:26

Antwort auf meine BM

hallo xxxxxx,
sofern ich dieser Abteilung in einer Kooperation mit bernie55 vorstehen soll, würde ich annehmen!
Andernfalls würde ich mich um die Stelle des Sitemanagers in Bora-Bora bewerben!
gruss
xxxxx

..es ist somit vollbracht......

WIR SIND WIR -
WIR SIND - PCBBS

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.471.635 von bernie55 am 09.07.08 16:27:56

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.471.677 von bernie55 am 09.07.08 16:30:41

Klasse

Bernie, kennst Du Klopfakupressurbehandlung EFT (Emotional Freedom Techniques)?
Ich sehe grad in Youtube, sehr interessant

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1efrIBI9BY

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.471.677 von bernie55 am 09.07.08 16:30:41

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Der Kampf um die 36$ Marke tobt....Wir werden ihn gewinnen!!

[bernie55]

Goldman Sachs now controls 4.13% of ELN. They have 638,052 Direct, and 19,579,133 Total.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/LSECWS/IFSPages/MarketNew…

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

35,99$!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.475.201 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 09.07.08 22:04:53

After Hours
Last: $ 36.05 !

After Hours
High: $ 36.05

After Hours
Volume: 66,940

After Hours
Low: $ 35.9371

[bernie55]

Elan may net €8bn in Alzheimer's drug sales

By Ailish O'Hora Business News Editor

Thursday July 10 2008

AS drugmaker Elan resumes its market position as top dog on the Irish Stock Exchange (ISE), New York-based Cowen and Company is the latest investment bank to row in behind the potential from Elan and Wyeth's Alzheimer's treatment bapineuzumab (AAB-001) and has initiated coverage of the Irish drugmaker estimating annual sales from the drug of between $7bn and $8bn in 2015.

Elan, with a market capitalisation of over €10bn, now has the highest valuation on the ISE and has resumed its position for the first time in six years.


The shares have been boosted by expectations from AAB-001 as the credit crunch and the economic downturn gnaw away at banking and building shares which have recorded the highest market caps for years. Elan shares finished up 5.8pc in Dublin yesterday at €22.97.

Figures seen by the Irish Independent show that AAB-001's potential has brokers estimating sales of the drug in 2015 ranging between $4.5bn and $10bn. Goldman Sachs's target of $10bn is at the higher end of the scale with Irish brokers at the lower end -- Davy Stockbrokers is estimating sales from the drug of $4.5bn (€2.9bn) in 2015 while the Goodbody range is between $4.5bn and $6.5bn.

Blockbuster

Cowen and Company analyst Ian Sanderson said Elan could reap blockbuster rewards from AAB-OO1, but the investment bank has a neutral rating on the stock as the drug isn't likely to hit the market for a few years. "Elan's lead drug development candidate, bapineuzumab, could be the first disease- modifying treatment for Alzheimer's disease, targeting a multibillion-dollar market opportunity," he said, adding that it was not likely to reach the market until 2011.

- Ailish O'Hora Business News Editor


http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=160&mn=250638&pt=…

[moneyseeker]

Aus http://www.n-tv.de/AlzheimerAnsatz_Fresszellen_im_Gehirn/310…

"
Alzheimer-Ansatz
Fresszellen im Gehirn

Alzheimer könnte künftig mit der körpereigenen Immunabwehr bekämpft werden. Das stellen amerikanische Wissenschaftler nach Experimenten an Mäusen in Aussicht. Die Forscher um Terrence Town von der amerikanischen Yale-Universität in New Haven fanden heraus, dass Immunzellen aus dem Blut der Mäuse in das Gehirn wanderten, wenn bei den Tieren ein Signalmolekül blockiert war. Im Gehirn beseitigten diese Immunzellen anschließend einen großen Teil der Ablagerungen, die für Alzheimer typisch sind. Town und seine Kollegen sind von dem Ergebnis überrascht, denn sie hatten genau das Gegenteil erwartet. Über ihre Ergebnisse berichten die Forscher in der Fachzeitschrift "Nature Medicine".

Ansätze zur medikamentösen Behandlung von Alzheimer wurden bislang durch die sogenannte Blut-Hirn-Schranke erschwert. Diese Barriere besteht aus eng miteinander verbundenen Proteinen, die die Blutgefäße im Gehirn abdichten. Wirkstoffe, die im Blut gelöst sind, können daher nur schwer in das eigentliche Gehirngewebe vordringen.

Town und seine Kollegen hoffen, dieses Problem künftig umgehen zu können. Bei ihren Versuchen stellten sie fest, dass Fresszellen aus dem Immunsystem, sogenannte Makrophagen, die Blut-Hirn-Schranke überwinden können. Dazu hatten sie bei Mäusen die Produktion eines Signalmoleküls durch genetische Modifikationen blockiert. Dieses Molekül, ein sogenannter transformierender Wachstumsfaktor, unterdrückt im Gehirn von Alzheimer-Patienten die Immunreaktion des Körpers.

Die Fresszellen wurden von der verstärkten Immunreaktion regelrecht in Gehirn gelockt, wie die Forscher feststellten. Ursprünglich rechneten sie damit, dass die einwandernden Makrophagen die für Alzheimer typischen Entzündungsymptome im Gehirn noch verschlimmern würden. Stattdessen attackierten die Fresszellen die sogenannten amyloiden Plaques - Proteinablagerungen im Gehirn von Alzheimerkranken. Die Makrophagen vernichteten bis zu 90 Prozent dieser Plaques. Die Wissenschaftler hoffen nun, Medikamente entwickeln zu können, die die Blut-Hirn-Schranke nicht passieren müssen, sondern die das körpereigene Immunsystem zur Bekämpfung der Plaques aktivieren.
"

Kann ein Kundiger was dazu sagen? Konkurrenz?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Firm's top revenue generator Tysabri will soon be 'biggest game in town again'

By Ailish O'Hora
Thursday July 10 2008

ALTHOUGH the spotlight is on AAB-001, Tysabri is still Elan's most important drug in terms of a revenue generator. The company is expected to break even in the second half of this year and analysts believe that post-ICAD, the focus will return to the Multiple Sclerosis/Crohn's Disease treatment Tysabri.

"Tysabri will be the biggest game in town again," said Jack Gorman, analyst at Davy Stockbrokers. Elan chief financial officer Shane Cook said at the time of the first quarter results that the increase in Tysabri patients to 26,000 at the end of March "underscores our confidence that Elan's total revenues for this year will approach the $1bn (€0.64bn) mark and that we will achieve our target of having 100,000 patients on Tysabri by the end of 2010". Meeting this target would translate into about $2.8bn in annual sales at the current price.

A spokesperson for the company said yesterday that both Elan's biopharmaceutical and drug technologies divisions had robust pipelines "that continue to make solid progress".

In fact, the latest figures from Elan will be released on July 24, just before the ICAD conference.

"On Tysabri, we will have sales figures the week before ICAD. The drug is tracking at 5,000 patients a month and we are expecting that the company will give us comfort in our models based on our current targets for Tysabri later this month," said Goodbody analyst Ian Hunter.

But Tysabri will have to make a significant impact on the treatment of Crohn's disease if Elan, and its research partner with that drug, Biogen, are to hit their goal of 100,000 patients by 2010. Analysts have said that although the drug won approval this year to treat adults with moderate to severe cases of the bowel disease who have had a poor response to, or cannot take, other therapies such as Humira from Abbott or Johnson & Johnson's Remicade, Crohn's is a much more challenging indication for Tysabri than MS is.

Tysabri was first used as a treatment for MS and it was this association that made it a household name. Back in 2005, sales of the drug were suspended after three cases of a potentially fatal brain disease called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) emerged.

Tysabri returned to the market in 2006 with limits after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decided MS patients were willing to accept the risks given the potential benefits. There have been no new cases of PML since Tysabri's relaunch, but any new cases would likely have a devastating effect, especially in Crohn's.

Tysabri had sales of $160m in the first quarter of this year. While Elan has declined to reveal what percentage of the 100,000-patient goal it expects to come from Crohn's, some analysts have predicted that the disease would account for between 5pc and 10pc of Tysabri sales.

- Ailish O'Hora

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.476.641 von moneyseeker am 10.07.08 08:38:37

...soweit ich weiss,ist Elan hier mit an Bord....ich werde den Artikel mal an "Kundige" weiterleiten....auf alle Fälle sind "wir" ZEITLICH ,was die Zulassung betrifft,wohl nicht mehr zu schlagen...

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.476.641 von moneyseeker am 10.07.08 08:38:37

Diesen Link schickte mir Ridge aus dem IV-Board zu Deiner Frage
http://www.alzforum.org/new/detail.asp?id=1843

und meinte,letzlich seien diese Ergebnisse ja ein weiterer Beleg für das Funktionieren der Amyloid-These....

[moneyseeker]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.477.543 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 10:28:00

Merci

PS: "Kundige" ist doch ein schönes Wort - oder?

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.477.650 von moneyseeker am 10.07.08 10:38:48

"Kundige"-klingt irgendwie historisch-profund....

Muss jetzt mal wieder "Menschenaufrichten"..... -sprich "arbeiten"--bis später...!

[bernie55]

FDA News

July 9, 2008

FDA Revises Process for Responding to Drug Applications

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today announced that it is revising the way it communicates to drug companies when a marketing application cannot be approved as submitted.

Under new regulations that govern the drug approval process, FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) will no longer issue "approvable" or "not approvable" letters when a drug application is not approved. Instead, CDER will issue a "complete response" letter at the end of the review period to let a drug company know of the agency's decision on the application.

"These new regulations will help the FDA adopt a more consistent and neutral way of conveying information to a company when we cannot approve a drug application in its present form," said Janet Woodcock, M.D., director of the agency's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER). "Thorough and timely review of drug applications is a priority of the FDA, and these new processes will make our communications with sponsors of applications more consistent."

Taking the place of "approvable" and "not approvable" letters, a "complete response" letter will be issued to let a company know that the review period for a drug is complete and that the application is not yet ready for approval. The letter will describe specific deficiencies and, when possible, will outline recommended actions the applicant might take to get the application ready for approval.

Currently, when assessing new drug applications, the FDA can respond to a sponsor in one of three types of letters: an "approval" letter, meaning the drug has met agency standards for safety and efficacy and the drug can be marketed for sale in the United States; an "approvable" letter, which generally indicates that the drug can probably be approved at a later date provided that the applicant provides certain additional information or makes specified changes (such as to labeling); or a "not approvable" letter, meaning the application has deficiencies generally requiring the submission of substantial additional data before the application can be approved.

"Complete response" letters are already used to respond to companies that submit biologic license applications. The process for drugs and biologics will be consistent under the new regulations.

The revision should not affect the overall time it takes the FDA to review new or generic drug applications or biologic license applications. These changes, which will become effective on Aug. 11, 2008, are not expected to directly affect consumers.

In July 2004, the FDA issued a proposed rule on these topics. At that time the agency asked for comments on the proposal. Today's final rule addresses comments submitted to the agency.

For more information, see:

Link to the Complete Response Final Rule
http://www.fda.gov/cder/regulatory/complete_response_FR/defa…

Link to the drug approval process page
http://www.fda.gov/fdac/special/testtubetopatient/default.ht…



http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/NEWS/2008/NEW01859.html

[bernie55]

Losing our Shorts!

Shorts: “Houston we have a problem”


Longs: “I can’t hear you too well Shorts we are having a party down here but go ahead”


Shorts: “Elan seems to be climbing faster that we anticipated, what can be done to suppress it? At this tilt we are likely to miss the entry point and bounce in to the outer rim, none of us want to burn so what can we do?”


Longs: “I’m sorry guys I think it’s too late, you seem to have miscalculated the slope angle and are on your own...hang on there...there just maybe hope for you yet…his name’s Bob

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.478.720 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 12:30:52

[Poppholz]

$36,23 zu $36,49

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.479.557 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 14:04:33

freu!

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.479.557 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 14:04:33

$36,45 zu 36,60

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.479.955 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 14:43:44

...Jungs,was soll´n wir bloss mit der ganzen Kohle machen???--müssen wir über Franchising der PCCBSC nachdenken??---

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.479.993 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 14:46:53

....klaue ein "c"....muss gleich bis 16h wieder arbeiten--dabei bin ich sooo gespannt wie es in usa losgeht....

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.480.020 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 14:49:37

und tausche ein C gegen ein B

(oder ist einer von Euch raus?)

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.480.095 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 14:55:56

oh sorry--natürlich NICHT...ich brauche AAB-001!!!!!


Author: peadar_og

Elan
It may soon become difficult for traders to know where this stock is going short-term, and it’ll require balls to be around for the big pay days, i.e., the stock doubles quickly (perhaps more than once) from somewhere north of here. What will you do if the stock is between $50 and $60 a week after ICAD for instance?

Here is a scenario assuming very good news on several fronts, but still well within the realms of possibilities.

1. Elan has left plenty on the table for ICAD and we achieve the shock and awe reaction.
2. No problems on the safety side from Tysabri or Bap.
3. Intention to file (6-month safety data from 500k-1000k patients to be supplemented b4 final approval).
4. Increased sales of Tysabri.
5. Deal with Lilly, EDT, Gamma, BIIB, debt, etc – anything to alleviate any cash concerns.
6. Price of Bap is higher than anticipated.
7. Perhaps file one or two bap cohorts.

All of these could occur by ye08, or much sooner (within weeks at best).

I couldn’t rule out an additional $100 being added to the current share price soon enough – and more when Bap is approved. A market cap of $71b would put us at $150. I doubt we could be too far below that with Bap approved and Tysabri still doing well on the safety side.

To get to $71b someone would have to believe we could generate $3 –4 billion profit from say $5-6 billion revenue a few years out, and continue to grow substantially after that.

I told the board when the stock was $1 that my target was $100. I’ve been rethinking that recently with a view to moving it considerably higher.

With Bap and Tysabri on the market and 10 products in p3 in 2010, I could see this stock well above $200 a share. A $100b market cap takes us to $212.

Peadar ‘Og

[Poppholz]

habe keinen Realtime Kurs mehr.

Hatte erst an Kursaussetzung gedacht , scheint aber ein Problem bei ARCA zu sein.

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

36,41 zu 36,48 um 15.04h

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.480.211 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 15:04:26

sind auch bei mir wieder da.

$36,12 zu 36,15

[Poppholz]

START über $36,-

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.480.564 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 15:31:16

erst einmal sind die Kursdrücker wieder am Ball:

aktuell $35,70

Wir werden sehen wie lange die das Spiel heute spielen können.

[Poppholz]

die gleichen Kursschwankungen wie gestern und vorgestern:

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

...über 36$---super!

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

ELN msg # 250810 7/10/2008 9:58:58 AM
By: allineln

elan just (re)posted an AD director's job offering - in NY this time, fwiw

Job Title: Director, Commercial Strategy/Communications/Business Development
Req #: #51709002
Location: New York NY


Primary Objective of Position:

Senior member of the commercial team responsible for ensuring that the Global launch strategy, and Elan business model for a breakthrough biologic therapy for AD is based upon the highest quality of management science.
http://sh.webhire.com/servlet/av/jd?ai=195&ji=2197346&sn=I

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.207 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 16:21:44

über 36$---super

36,67 - 36,71

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.487 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 16:46:45

Steht die EDT zum Verkauf an ?????

[bernie55]

...das wird mir langsam unheimlich.....


...der Kursverlauf ist nicht normal !!!!!


36,82 - 36,85

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.525 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 16:50:11

BERNIE---es ist doch erst der ANFANG------siehe mein Posting von vorhin --Kursziel 212 DOLLAR


212
212
212
212

[bernie55]

37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.705 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 17:05:52

SI SI SI SI SI S U P E R !!!!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.525 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 16:50:11

...das wird mir langsam unheimlich.....

mir auch Bernie

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.525 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 16:50:11

nicht normal war der Kursverlauf 2006

2007 war auch noch nicht so wirklich nachvollziehbar.

2007 hatten wir schon Kurse von $40,- erwartet und das waren keine PUSHER-Meinungen.

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.726 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 17:07:51

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.730 von surga am 10.07.08 17:08:33

..mit der Unheimlichkeit können wir doch gut leben, oder ???

[Poppholz]

also ich kann mir nicht helfen, der große CHART sieht doch noch ein wenig besser aus:

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.738 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 17:09:29

nicht normal war der Kursverlauf 2006

2007 war auch noch nicht so wirklich nachvollziehbar.



..ok, das ELAN- IMPERIUM schlägt zurück...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.757 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 17:11:29

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.757 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 17:11:29

jeden Tag ein $ rauf.

dann sind wir im Februar 2009 beim "vorläufigen" Kursziel von $212,- angekommen.

(ich habe Zeit)

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.744 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 17:10:11

genauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[Poppholz]

ich finde vor allen Dingen klasse, dass in FRANKFURT über beide WKN mal gerade 300 Aktien gehandelt wurden.

Die PCBBS lähmt den gesamten Deutschen ELAN-Markt.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.772 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 17:13:03

bei dem Tempo, dass wir in den letzten Tagen machen, wäre das Kursziel von $212,- auch schon zu Weihnachten 2008 möglich.

Würde mir auch gefallen.

[Poppholz]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.790 von surga am 10.07.08 17:14:24

genau genommen wäre ELAN ja (bis letzte Woche) noch ein 1.000%er

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.844 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 17:20:13

..müssten unseren Thread dann umschreiben....

ELAN - 2.000 % for the LONG-time

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.862 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 17:22:53

..im jahre 2009 könnten wir dann immer noch schreiben:

ELAN - 3.000 % for the LONG-time

[bernie55]

..jetzt zu den Fakten...


37,21- 37,25

..heute noch 38 USD ????

[HeinzBork]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.883 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 17:25:11

Ja bitte!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.482.013 von HeinzBork am 10.07.08 17:38:08

Ja danke !

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

.....ich wollte nochmal sagen dass wir GUUUUUUUUUUUUUUT sind!!




37,15 gerade!

[surga]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.481.844 von Poppholz am 10.07.08 17:20:13

so wie Titel dieses Thread ist
Schade, dass der Zenman nicht mehr dabei ist

ELAN - 1.000 % for the LONG-time

[Birgit.Tersteegen]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.482.294 von surga am 10.07.08 18:09:28

...stimmt!

Bin Mantra-Singen und verlass mich auf Euch!

Till tonight!

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.482.387 von Birgit.Tersteegen am 10.07.08 18:21:04

..lalalllllaaaaaaaallllaaa...ooooohmmmmmm....EEEELLLLLLAANNNNNNN..

..lalalllllaaaaaaaallllaaa...ooooohmmmmmm....EEEELLLLLLAANNNNNNN..

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.482.956 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 19:30:13

EEELLAAAANNNNNNN > GGGGGOOOOOOOOOOOO

37,20 USD - 37,26 USD

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.482.983 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 19:33:10

....aktuell ganz schönes Hin und Her..

...aber immer noch schön > 37 USD

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.482.956 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 19:30:13

..deine Mantrasongs helfen,Birgit.....

..jetzt schon wieder 37,35 - 37,38 ...

[bernie55]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 34.483.062 von bernie55 am 10.07.08 19:41:10

..singen...singen...singen....singen.......singen...singen...singen....singen.....