Apple - unaufhaltsamer Aufstieg - wie lange noch? (Seite 679)
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UBS-Studie von Milunovich (price target USD 120)(Buy) fasst aktuelle Aspekte sehr gut zusammen. Auch für einen reread die Tage geeignet IMO. Schönen Feiertag.
UBS’s Steve Milunovich today offers up evidence from the firm’s “Evidence Lab” that there’s hope for a rise in Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales when it produces the next model of the device, presumably an “iPhone 7.”
Milunovich, who has a Buy rating on the shares, and a $120 price target, writes that his survey of 6,336 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., Japan, Germany, and Mainland China, conducted online in March, found some improvement in sentiment for Apple’s wares.
Milunovich’s report is actually contained in two notes.
In the Apple-specific note, he writes of an improvement in the upgrade “cycle” for the iPhone versus what many see as a lengthening of the time between when people buy a new iPhone, writing “in our fall survey we should have taken more seriously the two negatives: demand for the 6s was weaker than for the 6 and upgrade cycles slightly lengthened.”
The latest data “finds a reversal,” he writes. “interest in the iPhone 7 is better than for the 6s though not as strong as for the 6 and upgrade cycles appear shorter in the US and China though not in other countries.”
In the companion report on the survey itself, the intent of consumers has actually improved from that survey back in the fall, at least in the U.S. and China:
Encouragingly – having seen medium-term demand in our past two surveys slow, we are now seeing improving demand for smart-phones in both the US and China – the two largest markets for smart-phones globally. This stands in stark contrast to the evidence on the ground including Apple results where China and the US were down in phone volume terms as well as the work we have done around market saturation. The question now is whether the survey proves an aberration on a general worsening trend or whether – as has been the case previously – it is a good forward indicator of medium term demand beyond a single quarter’s guidance and checks. In the US the survey showed that 52% of respondents intend to upgrade their smart-phone in the next 12-months, up from 46% in our prior survey six months ago. For China the results were 69%, up from 63% respectively. Again this is contrary to procurement estimates from Chinese smartphone OEMs which have so far only marginally improved year-to-date. This could come from continuing softness in their exports segments, notably other emerging markets.
For Apple, in particular, he sees encouraging signs for an iPhone 7 in both the U.S. and China:
Positively for Apple, the UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates that we may witness see a somewhat stronger upgrade cycle for the iPhone 7 with consumer showing more likelihood of purchasing than they did with the iPhone 6S. Of our survey respondents, 47% cited that they were holding off purchasing a new Apple product until the next one is available showing that we believe there is some pent up demand for Apple devices and this may explain the weaker one quarter forward guidance […] We also see a lack of pull-in of procurement for current iPhones into Q1 ’16 – indicating some caution, still, on H2 ’16 volumes.
On the negative side, Milunovich found that the Chinese brands that have been beating up on Apple of late — Huawei, Oppo, and Xiaomi — are increasingly more likely to be viewed by people who own them as “aspirational” than are products from Apple — even though Apple still scores higher when people are asked if it makes “quality products”:
Chinese vendors Xiaomi, Huawei and OPPO are seen as aspirational brands by more of their owners than Apple or Samsung. Apple continues to score poorly for offering value for money. Samsung has now overtaken Apple in terms of owners believing they produce high quality products. Samsung brand is clearly one of the best regarded by consumers today. Nokia still maintains brand trust surprisingly given it no longer makes devices. It will potentially be important as the company is able to reuse its brand on smartphones from H2 ’16 and given its recent purchase of wearables company, Withings, for €170m.
Milunovich’s refutes the view of some of late that the smartphone is becoming like personal computers, something that Sterne Agee CRT’s Rob Cihra suggested yesterday.
That’s not the case, in Milunovich’s view:
Q: Is the smartphone market the next PC market (will the smart-phone market fall in ’16?) No. We believe it is possible that the market will decline in volumes in certain years but the UBS Evidence Lab survey data suggests stabilization in the medium-term for the smart-phone market, with marginally improved replacement rates expected in US and China. Our view remains that the smart- phone market could decline if the upgrade cycle slows but our central assumption is that emerging market demand should deliver modest unit growth and an aspirational upgrade market.
While developed markets like the U.S. are pretty “saturated,” India and other countries represent smartphone opportunity, writes Milunovich, echoing comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook to Jim Cramer on Tuesday:
We believe incremental penetration gains going forward are likely to be driven by emerging markets and mature markets determined by the pace of upgrade rates. While we believe we have reached high levels of market penetration we still see room for unit growth as further penetration occurs. Interestingly though, in many markets with the introduction of leasing plans and new growth in connected devices outside of smart-phones, the number of connections made by operators are increasingly pointed to new areas (such as cars etc). This is in evidence in the US market as shown below.
Milunovich offers an infographic for those “penetration” rates (click on the image to see it larger):
There were also healthy signs for Samsung Electronics (005930KS), which unveiled its latest flagship phone, the “Galaxy S7,” at the end of February, and which seems to be fairing very well, writing, “For Samsung, we also found stronger demand for the Galaxy S7, along with Samsung’s retention rate improving including in China. We believe the smart- phone market will remain challenging for tier-2 OEMs including LG and HTC.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/05/04/apple-su…
May 4, 2016, 2:44 P.M. ET
Apple: Survey Says iPhone Demand to Recover, But Huawei, Oppo More ‘Aspirational,’ Says UBS
UBS’s Steve Milunovich today offers up evidence from the firm’s “Evidence Lab” that there’s hope for a rise in Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales when it produces the next model of the device, presumably an “iPhone 7.”
Milunovich, who has a Buy rating on the shares, and a $120 price target, writes that his survey of 6,336 smartphone users in the U.S., U.K., Japan, Germany, and Mainland China, conducted online in March, found some improvement in sentiment for Apple’s wares.
Milunovich’s report is actually contained in two notes.
In the Apple-specific note, he writes of an improvement in the upgrade “cycle” for the iPhone versus what many see as a lengthening of the time between when people buy a new iPhone, writing “in our fall survey we should have taken more seriously the two negatives: demand for the 6s was weaker than for the 6 and upgrade cycles slightly lengthened.”
The latest data “finds a reversal,” he writes. “interest in the iPhone 7 is better than for the 6s though not as strong as for the 6 and upgrade cycles appear shorter in the US and China though not in other countries.”
In the companion report on the survey itself, the intent of consumers has actually improved from that survey back in the fall, at least in the U.S. and China:
Encouragingly – having seen medium-term demand in our past two surveys slow, we are now seeing improving demand for smart-phones in both the US and China – the two largest markets for smart-phones globally. This stands in stark contrast to the evidence on the ground including Apple results where China and the US were down in phone volume terms as well as the work we have done around market saturation. The question now is whether the survey proves an aberration on a general worsening trend or whether – as has been the case previously – it is a good forward indicator of medium term demand beyond a single quarter’s guidance and checks. In the US the survey showed that 52% of respondents intend to upgrade their smart-phone in the next 12-months, up from 46% in our prior survey six months ago. For China the results were 69%, up from 63% respectively. Again this is contrary to procurement estimates from Chinese smartphone OEMs which have so far only marginally improved year-to-date. This could come from continuing softness in their exports segments, notably other emerging markets.
For Apple, in particular, he sees encouraging signs for an iPhone 7 in both the U.S. and China:
Positively for Apple, the UBS Evidence Lab survey indicates that we may witness see a somewhat stronger upgrade cycle for the iPhone 7 with consumer showing more likelihood of purchasing than they did with the iPhone 6S. Of our survey respondents, 47% cited that they were holding off purchasing a new Apple product until the next one is available showing that we believe there is some pent up demand for Apple devices and this may explain the weaker one quarter forward guidance […] We also see a lack of pull-in of procurement for current iPhones into Q1 ’16 – indicating some caution, still, on H2 ’16 volumes.
On the negative side, Milunovich found that the Chinese brands that have been beating up on Apple of late — Huawei, Oppo, and Xiaomi — are increasingly more likely to be viewed by people who own them as “aspirational” than are products from Apple — even though Apple still scores higher when people are asked if it makes “quality products”:
Chinese vendors Xiaomi, Huawei and OPPO are seen as aspirational brands by more of their owners than Apple or Samsung. Apple continues to score poorly for offering value for money. Samsung has now overtaken Apple in terms of owners believing they produce high quality products. Samsung brand is clearly one of the best regarded by consumers today. Nokia still maintains brand trust surprisingly given it no longer makes devices. It will potentially be important as the company is able to reuse its brand on smartphones from H2 ’16 and given its recent purchase of wearables company, Withings, for €170m.
Milunovich’s refutes the view of some of late that the smartphone is becoming like personal computers, something that Sterne Agee CRT’s Rob Cihra suggested yesterday.
That’s not the case, in Milunovich’s view:
Q: Is the smartphone market the next PC market (will the smart-phone market fall in ’16?) No. We believe it is possible that the market will decline in volumes in certain years but the UBS Evidence Lab survey data suggests stabilization in the medium-term for the smart-phone market, with marginally improved replacement rates expected in US and China. Our view remains that the smart- phone market could decline if the upgrade cycle slows but our central assumption is that emerging market demand should deliver modest unit growth and an aspirational upgrade market.
While developed markets like the U.S. are pretty “saturated,” India and other countries represent smartphone opportunity, writes Milunovich, echoing comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook to Jim Cramer on Tuesday:
We believe incremental penetration gains going forward are likely to be driven by emerging markets and mature markets determined by the pace of upgrade rates. While we believe we have reached high levels of market penetration we still see room for unit growth as further penetration occurs. Interestingly though, in many markets with the introduction of leasing plans and new growth in connected devices outside of smart-phones, the number of connections made by operators are increasingly pointed to new areas (such as cars etc). This is in evidence in the US market as shown below.
Milunovich offers an infographic for those “penetration” rates (click on the image to see it larger):
There were also healthy signs for Samsung Electronics (005930KS), which unveiled its latest flagship phone, the “Galaxy S7,” at the end of February, and which seems to be fairing very well, writing, “For Samsung, we also found stronger demand for the Galaxy S7, along with Samsung’s retention rate improving including in China. We believe the smart- phone market will remain challenging for tier-2 OEMs including LG and HTC.
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2016/05/04/apple-su…
May 4, 2016, 2:44 P.M. ET
Apple: Survey Says iPhone Demand to Recover, But Huawei, Oppo More ‘Aspirational,’ Says UBS
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Die negative Tendenz der Vortage setzt sich an den US-Börsen am Mittwoch fort. Konjunktursorgen, die die US-Börsen am Dienstag auf den niedrigsten Stand seit drei Wochen gedrückt haben, lasten weiter auf der Stimmung. Dies obwohl die Konjunkturdaten des Tages uneinheitlich waren und keineswegs nur schlechte Botschaften enthielten. Vereinzelt sprechen Akteure auch von einer Verschnaufpause nach der kräftigen Erholung der US-Börsen von den Februar-Tiefs.
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/de/boersenportal/nachrichten…
Mit Cook Anschluss an Nasdaq 5 Tage gewonnen und die Drei-Monats-Bilanz, die vor den numbers noch pari war auf 6.5% zu Nasdaq angenähert. Man kann sagen jetzt nach der Cramer Sendung wieder mit Nasdaq zusammen am Laufen. Der Abwärtslauf von Apple wurde am Montag erst einmal gestoppt.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl?mod=MW_story…
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/de/boersenportal/nachrichten…
Mit Cook Anschluss an Nasdaq 5 Tage gewonnen und die Drei-Monats-Bilanz, die vor den numbers noch pari war auf 6.5% zu Nasdaq angenähert. Man kann sagen jetzt nach der Cramer Sendung wieder mit Nasdaq zusammen am Laufen. Der Abwärtslauf von Apple wurde am Montag erst einmal gestoppt.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl?mod=MW_story…
Ich würde jedem empfehlen die Korrektur abzuwarten. In 4 Monaten evtl. wieder long wenn die Verkaufszahlen am Boden Sind. Ich freue mich auf die nächsten Quartalszahlen, weil es dann nochmal richtig kracht. Bis dato Short:-)
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.341.517 von IngChris am 04.05.16 11:24:15Morgen 90USD :-)
USD 95.- 
http://www.nasdaq.com/de/symbol/aapl/premarket" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.nasdaq.com/de/symbol/aapl/premarket
http://www.nasdaq.com/de/symbol/aapl/premarket" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.nasdaq.com/de/symbol/aapl/premarket
Trading Spotlight
So Zwischenerholung abgeschlossen Korrektur 2. Phase -raus aus der Aktie rein in Puts ... :-)
- Nur m.M. keine Handelsempfehlung -
- Nur m.M. keine Handelsempfehlung -
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.334.446 von pstrube am 03.05.16 14:47:18Ohje jetzt machen wir uns hier schon über Apple lustig :-) ... Aber leider stimmt es ja - Samsung scheint Apple bei Innovationen im Smartphone Bereich zu überholen und Microsoft bei Notebook/Tablett ...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.333.642 von xwin am 03.05.16 13:21:36Unsinn!
Apple hatte bislang in jeder iPhone Generation dramatische Innovationen präsentiert, die den Markt vollständig verändert haben! Zum Beispiel "spacegrau", "rose-gold" ...
In 20 Jahren ist Apple sicher führender Innovator im Rausbringen neuer Apple-Watch-Armbänder.
Apple hatte bislang in jeder iPhone Generation dramatische Innovationen präsentiert, die den Markt vollständig verändert haben! Zum Beispiel "spacegrau", "rose-gold" ...
In 20 Jahren ist Apple sicher führender Innovator im Rausbringen neuer Apple-Watch-Armbänder.
Am schönsten an gestern war wieder, wie Timmy uns wieder mal die Great Innovation versprochen hat, und WAS da gerade wieder alles in der Pipeline ist, mein lieber Gerichtsvollzieher! So langsam kann ich's echt nicht mehr hören, wenn man dann nicht auch IRGENDWANN mal abliefert...
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 52.333.099 von advanced_trader am 03.05.16 12:27:17
Unsinn!
Apple hatte bislang in jeder iPhone Generation dramatische Innovationen präsentiert, die den Markt vollständig verändert haben! Zum Beispiel "spacegrau", "rose-gold" ... ...
Das hier erwarte ich von Unternehmen wie Apple. Machen aber auch wieder andere:
LG developed a display panel with an integrated fingerprint reader
http://9to5google.com/2016/05/02/lg-panel-integrated-fingerp…
Aber zum Glück ist Apple ja kein Hardwarehersteller.
Zitat von advanced_trader: iPhone 7 - keine Innovation, kein verbesserter Akku, dafür dünner
http://www.n-tv.de/technik/iPhone-7-wieder-kein-Akku-Wunder-…
Unsinn!
Apple hatte bislang in jeder iPhone Generation dramatische Innovationen präsentiert, die den Markt vollständig verändert haben! Zum Beispiel "spacegrau", "rose-gold" ... ...
Das hier erwarte ich von Unternehmen wie Apple. Machen aber auch wieder andere:
LG developed a display panel with an integrated fingerprint reader
http://9to5google.com/2016/05/02/lg-panel-integrated-fingerp…
Aber zum Glück ist Apple ja kein Hardwarehersteller.
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