Activa Resources - eine Perle mit Super-Potenzial - Älteste Beiträge zuerst (Seite 150)
eröffnet am 25.11.05 10:11:25 von
neuester Beitrag 05.04.23 14:11:23 von
neuester Beitrag 05.04.23 14:11:23 von
Beiträge: 1.594
ID: 1.022.492
ID: 1.022.492
Aufrufe heute: 0
Gesamt: 156.957
Gesamt: 156.957
Aktive User: 0
ISIN: DE0007471377 · WKN: 747137 · Symbol: NXI
0,0030
EUR
0,00 %
0,0000 EUR
Letzter Kurs 10.05.24 Hamburg
Werte aus der Branche Öl/Gas
Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
---|---|---|
4,8050 | +39,52 | |
1,2000 | +29,03 | |
246,02 | +21,37 | |
13,000 | +10,26 | |
4,5500 | +9,90 |
Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
---|---|---|
1,510 | -12,21 | |
0,8850 | -14,90 | |
0,960 | -15,04 | |
12,14 | -16,28 | |
5,9460 | -75,48 |
Also, ich beibe investiert und lass die Aktie 2015 laufen. Wenn sie in einem Jahr immer noch bei 2,- steht, wird sie verkauft.
Merill, Du hast sicherlich Recht, aber ich hab ja nicht gekauft, als die Aktie bei 20 Euro war. In dem Fall (nach 10 Jahren) wäre ich auch stink sauer.
Aber im Moment tun sie irgendwas, zum Beispiel horizontal bohren und nicht mehr senkrechte Löcher und die Bewertung ist nicht Mal 12 Millionen.
Merill, Du hast sicherlich Recht, aber ich hab ja nicht gekauft, als die Aktie bei 20 Euro war. In dem Fall (nach 10 Jahren) wäre ich auch stink sauer.
Aber im Moment tun sie irgendwas, zum Beispiel horizontal bohren und nicht mehr senkrechte Löcher und die Bewertung ist nicht Mal 12 Millionen.
Activa Resources nimmt erste Halls Bayou Bohrung in Betrieb
12:25 19.11.14
DGAP-News: Activa Resources AG / Schlagwort(e): Bohrergebnis
Activa Resources nimmt erste Halls Bayou Bohrung in Betrieb
19.11.2014 / 12:24
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Activa Resources nimmt erste Halls Bayou Bohrung in Betrieb
- Erfolgreicher Produktionstest mit Förderraten von bis zu 1.000 BOE pro
Tag
- Aktuell werden täglich 450 BOE gefördert
- Weitere Bohrungen geplant
Bad Homburg, 19. November 2014. Die Activa Resources AG, eine unabhängige
Erdöl und Erdgas Explorations- und Produktionsgesellschaft, berichtet über
die erfolgreiche Inbetriebnahme ihrer ersten Bohrung in Halls Bayou,
Süd-Texas.
Activa und seine Projektpartner haben die erste Vertikalbohrung (HB Nr.1)
bis zu einer Tiefe von 12.100 Fuß fertig gebohrt und mit täglichen
Förderraten von bis zu 1.000 BOE getestet. Vor zehn Tagen wurde die Quelle
durch ein minimales Ventil (7/64 Zoll) mit Förderraten von täglich 450
Barrel Erdöl äquivalent (BOE; 60% Erdöl, 40% Erdgas) in Betrieb genommen.
Geplant ist, die Förderraten in den kommenden Wochen gemäß den
Testergebnissen durch die langsame Öffnung des Ventils zu steigern.
Die HB Nr. 1 ist die erste von mehreren geplanten Vertikal-Bohrvorhaben auf
einer Fläche von 1.210 Acre. Die förderbaren Reserven der jetzigen Quelle
betragen bis zu 2 Mio. BOE. Die HB Nr. 2 Quelle wird voraussichtlich im
zweiten Quartal 2015 abgeteuft, um eine etwas tiefer gelegene Formation zu
testen. In dieser Lagerstätte werden ähnliche Erdöl- und Erdgasmengen
erwartet. Außerdem sind bis zu 6 weitere Bohrungen geplant.
Activas Anteil in diesem Projekt, welches mehrere vielversprechende
Bohrvorhaben beinhaltet, beträgt ca. 12,0%.
Leigh A. Hooper, CEO der Activa, fügt hinzu: "Der Beginn der
Bohraktivitäten ist sehr ermutigend. So kann Halls Bayou künftig einen
erheblichen Beitrag zum Wachstum der Fördererlöse und der Cashflows
leisten. Entsprechend planen wir weitere Bohrungen in diesem Feld."
Als nächste Bohrung steht in Kürze die zweite Vertikalbohrung bei Pill
Branch, Arkansas, an. Activas Anteil liegt bei diesem Projekt bei 100%.
Der Vorstand
Über Activa Resources AG
Die Activa Resources AG ist eine deutsche Explorations- und
Produktionsgesellschaft für Erdöl und Erdgas. Das im Entry Standard der
deutschen Börse notierte Unternehmen mit Sitz in Bad Homburg konzentriert
sich vorwiegend auf die Akquisition, Entwicklung und effiziente Ausbeutung
von Erdöl- und Erdgasfeldern. Neben neu entdeckten Vorkommen steht die
Wiedererschließung bereits stillgelegter Quellen im Fokus der
Geschäftstätigkeit wobei das Unternehmen auf modernste Explorations- und
Fördertechnologien zurückgreift. Das Management und die technische
Mannschaft des 2004 gegründeten Unternehmens besteht aus Experten mit
langjähriger operativer Erfahrung in internationalen Öl- und
Gasgesellschaften. Weitere Informationen befinden sich unter
www.activaresources.com.
Unternehmenskontakt Investor Relations Kontakt
Activa Resources AG GFEI Aktiengesellschaft
Hessenring 107 Am Hauptbahnhof 6
61348 Bad Homburg 60329 Frankfurt
www.activaresources.com www.gfei.de
Telefon: +49 (0)6172-483 2352 Telefon: +49 (0)69-7430 3700
FAX: +49 (0)6172-483 2353 FAX: +49 (0)69-7430 3722
lah@activaresources.com activa-resources@gfei.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
19.11.2014 Veröffentlichung einer Corporate News/Finanznachricht,
übermittelt durch DGAP - ein Service der EQS Group AG.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber
verantwortlich.
Die DGAP Distributionsservices umfassen gesetzliche Meldepflichten,
Corporate News/Finanznachrichten und Pressemitteilungen.
Medienarchiv unter http://www.dgap-medientreff.de und
http://www.dgap.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
298079 19.11.2014
12:25 19.11.14
DGAP-News: Activa Resources AG / Schlagwort(e): Bohrergebnis
Activa Resources nimmt erste Halls Bayou Bohrung in Betrieb
19.11.2014 / 12:24
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Activa Resources nimmt erste Halls Bayou Bohrung in Betrieb
- Erfolgreicher Produktionstest mit Förderraten von bis zu 1.000 BOE pro
Tag
- Aktuell werden täglich 450 BOE gefördert
- Weitere Bohrungen geplant
Bad Homburg, 19. November 2014. Die Activa Resources AG, eine unabhängige
Erdöl und Erdgas Explorations- und Produktionsgesellschaft, berichtet über
die erfolgreiche Inbetriebnahme ihrer ersten Bohrung in Halls Bayou,
Süd-Texas.
Activa und seine Projektpartner haben die erste Vertikalbohrung (HB Nr.1)
bis zu einer Tiefe von 12.100 Fuß fertig gebohrt und mit täglichen
Förderraten von bis zu 1.000 BOE getestet. Vor zehn Tagen wurde die Quelle
durch ein minimales Ventil (7/64 Zoll) mit Förderraten von täglich 450
Barrel Erdöl äquivalent (BOE; 60% Erdöl, 40% Erdgas) in Betrieb genommen.
Geplant ist, die Förderraten in den kommenden Wochen gemäß den
Testergebnissen durch die langsame Öffnung des Ventils zu steigern.
Die HB Nr. 1 ist die erste von mehreren geplanten Vertikal-Bohrvorhaben auf
einer Fläche von 1.210 Acre. Die förderbaren Reserven der jetzigen Quelle
betragen bis zu 2 Mio. BOE. Die HB Nr. 2 Quelle wird voraussichtlich im
zweiten Quartal 2015 abgeteuft, um eine etwas tiefer gelegene Formation zu
testen. In dieser Lagerstätte werden ähnliche Erdöl- und Erdgasmengen
erwartet. Außerdem sind bis zu 6 weitere Bohrungen geplant.
Activas Anteil in diesem Projekt, welches mehrere vielversprechende
Bohrvorhaben beinhaltet, beträgt ca. 12,0%.
Leigh A. Hooper, CEO der Activa, fügt hinzu: "Der Beginn der
Bohraktivitäten ist sehr ermutigend. So kann Halls Bayou künftig einen
erheblichen Beitrag zum Wachstum der Fördererlöse und der Cashflows
leisten. Entsprechend planen wir weitere Bohrungen in diesem Feld."
Als nächste Bohrung steht in Kürze die zweite Vertikalbohrung bei Pill
Branch, Arkansas, an. Activas Anteil liegt bei diesem Projekt bei 100%.
Der Vorstand
Über Activa Resources AG
Die Activa Resources AG ist eine deutsche Explorations- und
Produktionsgesellschaft für Erdöl und Erdgas. Das im Entry Standard der
deutschen Börse notierte Unternehmen mit Sitz in Bad Homburg konzentriert
sich vorwiegend auf die Akquisition, Entwicklung und effiziente Ausbeutung
von Erdöl- und Erdgasfeldern. Neben neu entdeckten Vorkommen steht die
Wiedererschließung bereits stillgelegter Quellen im Fokus der
Geschäftstätigkeit wobei das Unternehmen auf modernste Explorations- und
Fördertechnologien zurückgreift. Das Management und die technische
Mannschaft des 2004 gegründeten Unternehmens besteht aus Experten mit
langjähriger operativer Erfahrung in internationalen Öl- und
Gasgesellschaften. Weitere Informationen befinden sich unter
www.activaresources.com.
Unternehmenskontakt Investor Relations Kontakt
Activa Resources AG GFEI Aktiengesellschaft
Hessenring 107 Am Hauptbahnhof 6
61348 Bad Homburg 60329 Frankfurt
www.activaresources.com www.gfei.de
Telefon: +49 (0)6172-483 2352 Telefon: +49 (0)69-7430 3700
FAX: +49 (0)6172-483 2353 FAX: +49 (0)69-7430 3722
lah@activaresources.com activa-resources@gfei.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
19.11.2014 Veröffentlichung einer Corporate News/Finanznachricht,
übermittelt durch DGAP - ein Service der EQS Group AG.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung ist der Emittent / Herausgeber
verantwortlich.
Die DGAP Distributionsservices umfassen gesetzliche Meldepflichten,
Corporate News/Finanznachrichten und Pressemitteilungen.
Medienarchiv unter http://www.dgap-medientreff.de und
http://www.dgap.de
---------------------------------------------------------------------
298079 19.11.2014
heute ging es ja sogar etwas hoch, mit winzigem Volumen leider nur.
14 November 2014
Activa Resources AG
F
IRST
B
ERLIN
Equity Research
Analyst:
Simon Scholes, Tel. +49 (0)30 - 80 93 96 94
14
Activa Resources AG
A
cti
Germany / Oil&Gas Exploration & Production
Frankfurt
RATING
BUY
PRICE TARGET €6.70
Bloomberg: NXI GR
Return Potential 238.4%
ISIN: DE0007471377
Update
Risk Rating High
OIL PRODUCTION GROWTH TO ACCELERATE TO 55.7% IN 201
5
Simon Scholes, Tel. +49 (0)30 - 80 93 96 94
FINANCIAL HISTORY & PROJECTIONS
2012A
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Revenue (
€
m)
4.85 5.30 5.74 7.72 8.80 9.70
Y-o-y growth
23.6%
9.3%
8.2%
34.5%
14.0%
10.3%
EBIT (
€
m)
-0.19 0.81 0.84 1.26 1.58 2.00
EBIT margin
-4.0%
15.4%
14.7%
16.3%
18.0%
20.6%
Net income (
€
m)
-0.80 0.13 0.17 0.75 1.04 1.44
EPS (diluted) (
€
)
-0.12
0.02
0.06
0.15
0.19
0.26
DPS (€)
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FCF (
€
m)
-1.36
-2.13
-1.05
-1.19
-0.69
-0.16
Net gearing 222.3% 303.1% 321.6% 305.0% 260.7% 207.
1%
Liquid assets (
€
m)
0.56
0.46
0.86
0.85
0.97
1.07
RISKS
In view of the largely derisked status of the OSR H
alliday project and the
diversification of the more speculative part of the
company’s business among
several projects, we view the main threat to Activa
as falling oil and gas prices.
COMPANY PROFILE
Activa Resources AG owns a portfolio of
drilling rights to oil and natural gas projects in
Texas and Louisiana through its wholly-owned
American subsidiary, Activa Resources, LLC.
The company began oil and gas production in
2005 and currently has nine employees.
MARKET DATA
As of 13 Nov 2014
Closing Price
€ 2.05
Shares outstanding
5.32m
Market Capitalisation
€ 10.53m
52-week Range
€ 1.90 / 2.85
Avg. Volume (12 Months)
10,045
Multiples
2013A
2014E
2015E
P/E
102.5
36.3
13.9
EV/Sales
4.2
3.9
2.9
EV/EBITDA
11.4
10.6
8.1
Div. Yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
STOCK OVERVIEW
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
Activa Resources AG
Bloomberg Europe 500 Gas&Oil Index
COMPANY DATA
As of 30 Jun 2014
Liquid Assets
€ 0.85m
Current Assets
€ 3.20m
Intangible Assets
€ 13.90m
Total Assets
€ 17.15m
Current Liabilities
€ 4.51m
Shareholders’ Equity
€ 3.47m
SHAREHOLDERS
Management
18.0%
Closely held
12.0%
DWS Investment GmbH
7.0%
Other
30.0%
Free Float
33.0%
After growing by 24.9% in 2013 and by a further 43.
6% in H1
/
14,
we expect
FY 2014 oil production growth
to come in at 21.4% and then gather pace to
55.7% in FY2015 driven by increased output at the O
SR-
Halliday, Halls
Bayou and Pill Branch projects.
However, despite Activa’s rapid production
growth, the stock c
ontinues to trade at a discount to its peer group o
f
65.4
% on the basis of EV/proven reserves and EV/PV10 pr
oven reserves.
The recent decline in the oil price has dented both
the
sector and the
Activa share. But investors should bear in mind tha
t OSR-
Halliday and
other main Activa projects are conventional reservo
irs and so not subject
to the same ROI pressures as competing shale projec
ts. With costs
currently at c. USD1
6 per BOE, the company’s production remains very
economic. We now see fair value at €6.70 (previousl
y: €7.00)
on the basis of
peer group comparison. Our recommendation remains B
uy.
OSR-Halliday project drives 43.6% increase in H1/14
oil output
Activa’s H1
revenues increased 24.4% to €2.65m (H1/13: €2.13m)
while EBIT jumpe
d to
€0.44m (H1/13: €
-
0.47m). As table 1 overleaf shows, the improvement
in sales
and profitability was driven by a 43.6% increase in
oil production to 31,666
barrels (H1/13: 22,049 barrels). Oil production acc
ounted for 89% of USD
denominated revenues (H1
/13: 82%). The growth in oil production stemmed
mainly from Activa’s flagship OSR-
Halliday project field where horizontal wells 4
and 5 came on stream in May and June 2013 respectiv
ely and horizontal well 6
began production in April 2014. OSR-Halliday genera
ted 83% of Activa’s USD-
denominated revenues in H1/14 (H1/13: 77%).
Falling gas production, weaker USD constrained Euro
revenue growth
A
38.5% decline in gas production due mainly to lower
output at the Adams Ranch
and Alta Loma fields, a 15.7% rise i
n natural gas liquids volume and the
depreciation (c. 4%) of the USD against the Euro he
lp explain why Euro
denominated revenues (+24.4%) did not keep pace wit
h the 43.6% rise in oil
production and the 7.1% rise in the average oil pri
ce to USD101. (p.t.o.)
14 November 2014
B
Activa Resources AG
Page 2/8
Margins widened as revenues rose and costs fell
The H1/14 EBIT margin at 16.6%
(H1/13:-22.1%) benefited both from increasing reven
ues and declining operating costs. Cost
of operations fell to €0.68m (H1/13: €0.74m) mainly
because of abnormally high
infrastructure expenses at OSR-Halliday during H1/13
. Personnel expenses of €0.56m
(H1/13: €0.63m) and other operating expenses of €0.
43m (H1/13: €0.54m) were also lower
than in the prior year period.
On track to drill four horizontals at OSR in 2014; a
t least four more planned for 2015
Horizontal well 7 at OSR-Halliday came on production
in August. The initial production rate
(IPR) at 600-800 BOED was in line with previous OSR-Hal
liday wells. The eighth horizontal
well at OSR-Halliday came on stream in October. Init
ial production performance has been
favourable. Activa is planning to commence drilling
of horizontal well no. 9 at OSR-Halliday
by the end of this year, rig availability permittin
g. This would take the number of wells drilled
at OSR-Halliday in 2014 to four. Activa expects to dr
ill at least another four horizontal wells
at OSR-Halliday in 2015.
Figure 1: H1 2014 key figures
FY 2012A
H1 2013A
H2 2013A
FY 2013A
H 1 2014A
∆
H1/14 vs. H1/13 (%)
Revenues (€ 000's) 4,852 2,130 3,172 5,302 2,649 24.4%
WTI Oil price (US$/barrel) 94.1 94.20 101.69 98.01 100.
87 7.1%
Oil production (barrels) 47,411 22,049 38,255 60,304 31,
666 43.6%
Henry Hub natural gas spot price (US$/MMBtu) 2.75 3.7
6 3.70 3.73 4.94 31.4%
Natural gas production (BOE) 52,494 18,750 14,314 33,06
4 11,533 -38.5%
Natural gas liquids production (BOE) 3,993 2,229 2,997
5,226 2,579 15.7%
Total production (BOE) 103,898 43,028 55,566 98,594 45,7
78 6.4%
Average EURUSD FX 1.286 1.310 1.302 1.306 1.371 4.7%
Source: Activa Resources AG
Encouraging initial test production at Halls Bayou
Elsewhere, the first well at Halls
Bayou was recently drilled to a total depth of 12,01
3 feet. Activa reports encouraging initial
test production and that preparations to commence p
roduction are underway. Meanwhile,
the first well at Pill Branch in Arkansas is producing
according to expectations. Drilling on a
second well is due to start by the end of this year
.
Technical issues adversely affected OSR-Halliday pro
duction during the summer
OSR’s horizontal well no. 8 took longer to drill tha
n expected due to mechanical issues and
hence the start of production was delayed. In addit
ion, the reconfiguration of the oil
gathering system at OSR to accommodate the drilling
of new wells temporarily reduced
production at some existing wells during the summer
.
Recent downward pressure on the oil price
West Texas Intermediate Crude is currently
trading at USD78/barrel compared with an average USD1
01/barrel during H1/2014 and
USD101/barrel used in our previous forecasts. Meanwh
ile Henry Hub natural gas is
currently USD22.4/BOE compared with USD29.7/BOE during H1
/2014 and USD21.9/BOE
used in our previous forecasts. We have rebased our
forecasts for the remainder of 2014
and subsequent years to current commodity prices.
Downward adjustments to our 2014 forecasts reflecti
ng production shortfalls and
lower oil price
We have reduced our 2014 forecast for overall oi
l production at Activa by
9.7% to 71.9k barrels (previously: 79.6k barrels) t
o reflect these shortfalls. On the basis of
H1/14 production figures from the Alta Loma and Adam
s Ranch fields, we have also revised
our forecast for full year gas production down by 8
.4k BOE to 25.6k BOE. (previously: 34.0k
BOE). We now expect overall output of 103.1k BOE (previ
ously: 118.0k BOE), full year
revenues of €5.74m (previously: €6.59m), and pencil
in EBIT of €0.84m (previously: €1.00m).
14 November 2014
B
Activa Resources AG
Page 3/8
Substantial contribution from Halls Bayou and Pill Br
anch projects from 2015
For
2015 our total output forecast is now 141k BOE (previ
ously; 134k). The change comprises a
13k BOE increase in our forecast for oil to 112k BOE,
an 8k BOE decrease for gas to 23k
BOE, and a 2k BOE increase for natural gas liquids to
6k BOE. The increase in the forecast
for oil is based primarily on the first time inclus
ion in our forecast of production from Halls
Bayou and also higher expectations for Pill Branch. Th
e reduction in the forecast for gas
reflects the lower than expected gas production see
n so far in 2014. Our 2015 revenue
forecast is now €7.72m (previously: €7.99m) while o
ur EBIT forecast is €1.26m (previously:
€1.75m). We expect Activa’s oil production to grow
at an average annual rate of 26.0%
during 2014-17 with Halls Bayou and Pill Branch contri
buting half of this growth in barrel
terms. Figure 2 below summarises the changes to our
forecasts explained above.
Figure 2: Changes to forecasts
All figures in € 000s 2014E NEW 2014E OLD
∆
% 2015E NEW 2015E OLD
∆
% 2016E NEW 2016E OLD
∆
%
Revenues 5,739 6,594 -13.0% 7,718 7,985 -3.3% 8,797 8,821 -0
.3%
Cost of goods sold 1,740 1,708
1.9%
2,701 2,012
34.2%
2,991 2,179
37.3%
Gross profit 3,998 4,886 -18.2% 5,016 5,973 -16.0% 5,806 6,
642 -12.6%
Personnel costs 1,242 1,319
-5.8%
1,389 1,437
-3.3%
1,583 1,544
2.6%
Depreciation and amortisation 1,248 1,672
-25.4%
1,482 1,743
-15.0%
1,584 1,830
-13.5%
Other operating expenses 671 890
-24.6%
888 1,038
-14.5%
1,056 1,147
-7.9%
Operating income (EBIT) 844 1,005 -16.0% 1,258 1,755 -28.
3% 1,583 2,122 -25.4%
Net financial result -674 -561
20.2%
-503 -575
-12.4%
-540 -575
-6.0%
Pre-tax income (EBT) 170 444 -61.7% 754 1,180 -36.1% 1,043
1,547 -32.6%
Income taxes 0 0
n.a.
0 0
n.a.
0 0
n.a.
Net income / loss 170 444 -61.7% 754 1,180 -36.1% 1,043 1,5
47 -32.6%
Diluted EPS
(in €)
0.06 0.10 -43.2% 0.15 0.21 -31.0% 0.19 0.27 -29.0%
EBITDA 2,092 2,677 -21.9% 2,740 3,497 -21.7% 3,167 3,952 -19
.9%
Source: First Berlin Equity Research estimates
Increase in Texas Capital Bank credit line secures
repayment of bond debt
As a
result of expanding production at OSR-Halliday, Activ
a was able to secure a USD2.5m
increase in its credit line from Texas Capital Bank
(TCB) to USD15.0m. Under the initial
terms of the agreement with TCB, the interest rate w
as reduced by 0.25% to USD3.25% and
the repayment date put back to January 2018. The in
crease in the credit line means that
Activa has access to an additional USD4m. Activa curr
ently has €0.37m of straight bond
debt and €2.06m in unconverted bond debt both of wh
ich are due in December 2014. A
further increase in the credit line is expected as
further wells at OSR-Halliday come on
production.
We maintain our Buy recommendation with a price tar
get of €6.70 (previously: €7.00)
As we did in our previous studies, we have averaged
Activa’s discount to the four EV
metrics shown in figure 3 below while double weight
ing the EV 1P figures. On this basis
Activa is trading at a 65.4% discount to its peers.
We think Activa’s discount to the peer
group is unlikely to disappear entirely in the near
term because of its weak balance sheet.
We view a 20% discount as appropriate. Grossing Acti
va’s current enterprise value of
€22.2m up by 65.4% and then applying a discount of
20% produces an enterprise value of
€51.5m for Activa and an equity value of €6.67 per s
hare after deducting net debt of €8.8m
(adjusted for bond conversion) and dividing by the
fully diluted share count of 6.4m. This is
the basis of our price target of €6.70. As was the c
ase in previous studies, this valuation is
based only on Activa’s current reserve position. It
assumes only vertical drilling at Pill
Branch, nothing from other horizons at OSR-Halliday (
such as the Dexter Interval) and no
contribution from Halls Bayou.
14 November 2014
B
Activa Resources AG
Page 4/8
Some readers might query the comparatively small dro
p of 4.3% in our price target in view
of the fall of 25% in the oil price since our last
study of 12 June. This is a function of the
resilience of valuation among the peer group compan
ies – especially the more highly rated
among them. The enterprise valuation of our nine pe
er group companies has declined by an
average 10.6% since 12 June. However, the enterpris
e values of four of the nine companies
rose by an average 12.7%. Valuation multiples of th
ese outperforming companies were also
higher than for the underperforming companies. Thes
e factors substantially explain the
small reduction in our price target.
Figure 3: Peer Group Comparison
Currency
EV local
EV
EV/1P Reserves
EV/2P Reserves
EV/1P PV10
EV/2P PV10
currency (m)
(USDm)
(USD)
(USD)
(X)
(X)
Arsenal Energy CAD 216.7 191.3 26.04 15.88 1.84 1.06
Austex Oil Ltd USD 91.9 91.9 12.11 7.64 0.51 0.36
Caza Oil & Gas Ltd GBP 72.4 113.9 23.36 5.88 1.21 0.49
Dejour Energy Inc USD 47.2 47.2 2.51 1.63 0.86 0.68
Epsilon Energy Ltd CAD 227.9 201.2 10.53 6.97 1.86 1.34
Gale Force Petroleum Ltd CAD 5.7 5.0 3.36 2.50 0.20 0.16
Lynden Energy Corp CAD 97.4 86.0 14.53 14.04 1.21 1.19
Rooster Energy Ltd CAD 80.1 70.7 17.60 6.41 0.96 0.34
Shoreline Energy Corp CAD 32.9 29.0 7.19 4.07 0.56 0.38
Average
92.9 13.02 7.23 1.02 0.67
Activa Resources
EUR
22.2
27.7
5.33
3.26
0.30
0.15
Premium/(Discount) to peer group
-59.0% -54.9% -70.8% -77.9%
Weighted average discount to peer group -65.4%
Source; Company data; First Berlin Equity Research
Bond conversion offers a cheaper way into the Activ
a stock
Activa currently has
€2.06m of unconverted bond debt which matures on 4
December 2014. The bonds are
convertible into shares at €2.00 and the redemption
premium at maturity is 10%. Some bond
holders may reason that they are better off holding
the bonds to maturity than converting. If
all existing bond holders hold their bonds to matur
ity on 4 December their total proceeds will
be €2.27m. If they convert and sell shares at the c
urrent price of €2.05 their proceeds would
only be €2.11m.
However, those bondholders who believe in the Activa
equity story would be well advised to
convert in our view. Low liquidity suggests that th
e actual cost of establishing a position in
Activa would be substantially above the current quot
ed offer price. Bond conversion offers a
cheap way into the stock for holders of significant
amounts of the bond.
Activa Resources AG
F
IRST
B
ERLIN
Equity Research
Analyst:
Simon Scholes, Tel. +49 (0)30 - 80 93 96 94
14
Activa Resources AG
A
cti
Germany / Oil&Gas Exploration & Production
Frankfurt
RATING
BUY
PRICE TARGET €6.70
Bloomberg: NXI GR
Return Potential 238.4%
ISIN: DE0007471377
Update
Risk Rating High
OIL PRODUCTION GROWTH TO ACCELERATE TO 55.7% IN 201
5
Simon Scholes, Tel. +49 (0)30 - 80 93 96 94
FINANCIAL HISTORY & PROJECTIONS
2012A
2013A
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
Revenue (
€
m)
4.85 5.30 5.74 7.72 8.80 9.70
Y-o-y growth
23.6%
9.3%
8.2%
34.5%
14.0%
10.3%
EBIT (
€
m)
-0.19 0.81 0.84 1.26 1.58 2.00
EBIT margin
-4.0%
15.4%
14.7%
16.3%
18.0%
20.6%
Net income (
€
m)
-0.80 0.13 0.17 0.75 1.04 1.44
EPS (diluted) (
€
)
-0.12
0.02
0.06
0.15
0.19
0.26
DPS (€)
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FCF (
€
m)
-1.36
-2.13
-1.05
-1.19
-0.69
-0.16
Net gearing 222.3% 303.1% 321.6% 305.0% 260.7% 207.
1%
Liquid assets (
€
m)
0.56
0.46
0.86
0.85
0.97
1.07
RISKS
In view of the largely derisked status of the OSR H
alliday project and the
diversification of the more speculative part of the
company’s business among
several projects, we view the main threat to Activa
as falling oil and gas prices.
COMPANY PROFILE
Activa Resources AG owns a portfolio of
drilling rights to oil and natural gas projects in
Texas and Louisiana through its wholly-owned
American subsidiary, Activa Resources, LLC.
The company began oil and gas production in
2005 and currently has nine employees.
MARKET DATA
As of 13 Nov 2014
Closing Price
€ 2.05
Shares outstanding
5.32m
Market Capitalisation
€ 10.53m
52-week Range
€ 1.90 / 2.85
Avg. Volume (12 Months)
10,045
Multiples
2013A
2014E
2015E
P/E
102.5
36.3
13.9
EV/Sales
4.2
3.9
2.9
EV/EBITDA
11.4
10.6
8.1
Div. Yield
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
STOCK OVERVIEW
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
Activa Resources AG
Bloomberg Europe 500 Gas&Oil Index
COMPANY DATA
As of 30 Jun 2014
Liquid Assets
€ 0.85m
Current Assets
€ 3.20m
Intangible Assets
€ 13.90m
Total Assets
€ 17.15m
Current Liabilities
€ 4.51m
Shareholders’ Equity
€ 3.47m
SHAREHOLDERS
Management
18.0%
Closely held
12.0%
DWS Investment GmbH
7.0%
Other
30.0%
Free Float
33.0%
After growing by 24.9% in 2013 and by a further 43.
6% in H1
/
14,
we expect
FY 2014 oil production growth
to come in at 21.4% and then gather pace to
55.7% in FY2015 driven by increased output at the O
SR-
Halliday, Halls
Bayou and Pill Branch projects.
However, despite Activa’s rapid production
growth, the stock c
ontinues to trade at a discount to its peer group o
f
65.4
% on the basis of EV/proven reserves and EV/PV10 pr
oven reserves.
The recent decline in the oil price has dented both
the
sector and the
Activa share. But investors should bear in mind tha
t OSR-
Halliday and
other main Activa projects are conventional reservo
irs and so not subject
to the same ROI pressures as competing shale projec
ts. With costs
currently at c. USD1
6 per BOE, the company’s production remains very
economic. We now see fair value at €6.70 (previousl
y: €7.00)
on the basis of
peer group comparison. Our recommendation remains B
uy.
OSR-Halliday project drives 43.6% increase in H1/14
oil output
Activa’s H1
revenues increased 24.4% to €2.65m (H1/13: €2.13m)
while EBIT jumpe
d to
€0.44m (H1/13: €
-
0.47m). As table 1 overleaf shows, the improvement
in sales
and profitability was driven by a 43.6% increase in
oil production to 31,666
barrels (H1/13: 22,049 barrels). Oil production acc
ounted for 89% of USD
denominated revenues (H1
/13: 82%). The growth in oil production stemmed
mainly from Activa’s flagship OSR-
Halliday project field where horizontal wells 4
and 5 came on stream in May and June 2013 respectiv
ely and horizontal well 6
began production in April 2014. OSR-Halliday genera
ted 83% of Activa’s USD-
denominated revenues in H1/14 (H1/13: 77%).
Falling gas production, weaker USD constrained Euro
revenue growth
A
38.5% decline in gas production due mainly to lower
output at the Adams Ranch
and Alta Loma fields, a 15.7% rise i
n natural gas liquids volume and the
depreciation (c. 4%) of the USD against the Euro he
lp explain why Euro
denominated revenues (+24.4%) did not keep pace wit
h the 43.6% rise in oil
production and the 7.1% rise in the average oil pri
ce to USD101. (p.t.o.)
14 November 2014
B
Activa Resources AG
Page 2/8
Margins widened as revenues rose and costs fell
The H1/14 EBIT margin at 16.6%
(H1/13:-22.1%) benefited both from increasing reven
ues and declining operating costs. Cost
of operations fell to €0.68m (H1/13: €0.74m) mainly
because of abnormally high
infrastructure expenses at OSR-Halliday during H1/13
. Personnel expenses of €0.56m
(H1/13: €0.63m) and other operating expenses of €0.
43m (H1/13: €0.54m) were also lower
than in the prior year period.
On track to drill four horizontals at OSR in 2014; a
t least four more planned for 2015
Horizontal well 7 at OSR-Halliday came on production
in August. The initial production rate
(IPR) at 600-800 BOED was in line with previous OSR-Hal
liday wells. The eighth horizontal
well at OSR-Halliday came on stream in October. Init
ial production performance has been
favourable. Activa is planning to commence drilling
of horizontal well no. 9 at OSR-Halliday
by the end of this year, rig availability permittin
g. This would take the number of wells drilled
at OSR-Halliday in 2014 to four. Activa expects to dr
ill at least another four horizontal wells
at OSR-Halliday in 2015.
Figure 1: H1 2014 key figures
FY 2012A
H1 2013A
H2 2013A
FY 2013A
H 1 2014A
∆
H1/14 vs. H1/13 (%)
Revenues (€ 000's) 4,852 2,130 3,172 5,302 2,649 24.4%
WTI Oil price (US$/barrel) 94.1 94.20 101.69 98.01 100.
87 7.1%
Oil production (barrels) 47,411 22,049 38,255 60,304 31,
666 43.6%
Henry Hub natural gas spot price (US$/MMBtu) 2.75 3.7
6 3.70 3.73 4.94 31.4%
Natural gas production (BOE) 52,494 18,750 14,314 33,06
4 11,533 -38.5%
Natural gas liquids production (BOE) 3,993 2,229 2,997
5,226 2,579 15.7%
Total production (BOE) 103,898 43,028 55,566 98,594 45,7
78 6.4%
Average EURUSD FX 1.286 1.310 1.302 1.306 1.371 4.7%
Source: Activa Resources AG
Encouraging initial test production at Halls Bayou
Elsewhere, the first well at Halls
Bayou was recently drilled to a total depth of 12,01
3 feet. Activa reports encouraging initial
test production and that preparations to commence p
roduction are underway. Meanwhile,
the first well at Pill Branch in Arkansas is producing
according to expectations. Drilling on a
second well is due to start by the end of this year
.
Technical issues adversely affected OSR-Halliday pro
duction during the summer
OSR’s horizontal well no. 8 took longer to drill tha
n expected due to mechanical issues and
hence the start of production was delayed. In addit
ion, the reconfiguration of the oil
gathering system at OSR to accommodate the drilling
of new wells temporarily reduced
production at some existing wells during the summer
.
Recent downward pressure on the oil price
West Texas Intermediate Crude is currently
trading at USD78/barrel compared with an average USD1
01/barrel during H1/2014 and
USD101/barrel used in our previous forecasts. Meanwh
ile Henry Hub natural gas is
currently USD22.4/BOE compared with USD29.7/BOE during H1
/2014 and USD21.9/BOE
used in our previous forecasts. We have rebased our
forecasts for the remainder of 2014
and subsequent years to current commodity prices.
Downward adjustments to our 2014 forecasts reflecti
ng production shortfalls and
lower oil price
We have reduced our 2014 forecast for overall oi
l production at Activa by
9.7% to 71.9k barrels (previously: 79.6k barrels) t
o reflect these shortfalls. On the basis of
H1/14 production figures from the Alta Loma and Adam
s Ranch fields, we have also revised
our forecast for full year gas production down by 8
.4k BOE to 25.6k BOE. (previously: 34.0k
BOE). We now expect overall output of 103.1k BOE (previ
ously: 118.0k BOE), full year
revenues of €5.74m (previously: €6.59m), and pencil
in EBIT of €0.84m (previously: €1.00m).
14 November 2014
B
Activa Resources AG
Page 3/8
Substantial contribution from Halls Bayou and Pill Br
anch projects from 2015
For
2015 our total output forecast is now 141k BOE (previ
ously; 134k). The change comprises a
13k BOE increase in our forecast for oil to 112k BOE,
an 8k BOE decrease for gas to 23k
BOE, and a 2k BOE increase for natural gas liquids to
6k BOE. The increase in the forecast
for oil is based primarily on the first time inclus
ion in our forecast of production from Halls
Bayou and also higher expectations for Pill Branch. Th
e reduction in the forecast for gas
reflects the lower than expected gas production see
n so far in 2014. Our 2015 revenue
forecast is now €7.72m (previously: €7.99m) while o
ur EBIT forecast is €1.26m (previously:
€1.75m). We expect Activa’s oil production to grow
at an average annual rate of 26.0%
during 2014-17 with Halls Bayou and Pill Branch contri
buting half of this growth in barrel
terms. Figure 2 below summarises the changes to our
forecasts explained above.
Figure 2: Changes to forecasts
All figures in € 000s 2014E NEW 2014E OLD
∆
% 2015E NEW 2015E OLD
∆
% 2016E NEW 2016E OLD
∆
%
Revenues 5,739 6,594 -13.0% 7,718 7,985 -3.3% 8,797 8,821 -0
.3%
Cost of goods sold 1,740 1,708
1.9%
2,701 2,012
34.2%
2,991 2,179
37.3%
Gross profit 3,998 4,886 -18.2% 5,016 5,973 -16.0% 5,806 6,
642 -12.6%
Personnel costs 1,242 1,319
-5.8%
1,389 1,437
-3.3%
1,583 1,544
2.6%
Depreciation and amortisation 1,248 1,672
-25.4%
1,482 1,743
-15.0%
1,584 1,830
-13.5%
Other operating expenses 671 890
-24.6%
888 1,038
-14.5%
1,056 1,147
-7.9%
Operating income (EBIT) 844 1,005 -16.0% 1,258 1,755 -28.
3% 1,583 2,122 -25.4%
Net financial result -674 -561
20.2%
-503 -575
-12.4%
-540 -575
-6.0%
Pre-tax income (EBT) 170 444 -61.7% 754 1,180 -36.1% 1,043
1,547 -32.6%
Income taxes 0 0
n.a.
0 0
n.a.
0 0
n.a.
Net income / loss 170 444 -61.7% 754 1,180 -36.1% 1,043 1,5
47 -32.6%
Diluted EPS
(in €)
0.06 0.10 -43.2% 0.15 0.21 -31.0% 0.19 0.27 -29.0%
EBITDA 2,092 2,677 -21.9% 2,740 3,497 -21.7% 3,167 3,952 -19
.9%
Source: First Berlin Equity Research estimates
Increase in Texas Capital Bank credit line secures
repayment of bond debt
As a
result of expanding production at OSR-Halliday, Activ
a was able to secure a USD2.5m
increase in its credit line from Texas Capital Bank
(TCB) to USD15.0m. Under the initial
terms of the agreement with TCB, the interest rate w
as reduced by 0.25% to USD3.25% and
the repayment date put back to January 2018. The in
crease in the credit line means that
Activa has access to an additional USD4m. Activa curr
ently has €0.37m of straight bond
debt and €2.06m in unconverted bond debt both of wh
ich are due in December 2014. A
further increase in the credit line is expected as
further wells at OSR-Halliday come on
production.
We maintain our Buy recommendation with a price tar
get of €6.70 (previously: €7.00)
As we did in our previous studies, we have averaged
Activa’s discount to the four EV
metrics shown in figure 3 below while double weight
ing the EV 1P figures. On this basis
Activa is trading at a 65.4% discount to its peers.
We think Activa’s discount to the peer
group is unlikely to disappear entirely in the near
term because of its weak balance sheet.
We view a 20% discount as appropriate. Grossing Acti
va’s current enterprise value of
€22.2m up by 65.4% and then applying a discount of
20% produces an enterprise value of
€51.5m for Activa and an equity value of €6.67 per s
hare after deducting net debt of €8.8m
(adjusted for bond conversion) and dividing by the
fully diluted share count of 6.4m. This is
the basis of our price target of €6.70. As was the c
ase in previous studies, this valuation is
based only on Activa’s current reserve position. It
assumes only vertical drilling at Pill
Branch, nothing from other horizons at OSR-Halliday (
such as the Dexter Interval) and no
contribution from Halls Bayou.
14 November 2014
B
Activa Resources AG
Page 4/8
Some readers might query the comparatively small dro
p of 4.3% in our price target in view
of the fall of 25% in the oil price since our last
study of 12 June. This is a function of the
resilience of valuation among the peer group compan
ies – especially the more highly rated
among them. The enterprise valuation of our nine pe
er group companies has declined by an
average 10.6% since 12 June. However, the enterpris
e values of four of the nine companies
rose by an average 12.7%. Valuation multiples of th
ese outperforming companies were also
higher than for the underperforming companies. Thes
e factors substantially explain the
small reduction in our price target.
Figure 3: Peer Group Comparison
Currency
EV local
EV
EV/1P Reserves
EV/2P Reserves
EV/1P PV10
EV/2P PV10
currency (m)
(USDm)
(USD)
(USD)
(X)
(X)
Arsenal Energy CAD 216.7 191.3 26.04 15.88 1.84 1.06
Austex Oil Ltd USD 91.9 91.9 12.11 7.64 0.51 0.36
Caza Oil & Gas Ltd GBP 72.4 113.9 23.36 5.88 1.21 0.49
Dejour Energy Inc USD 47.2 47.2 2.51 1.63 0.86 0.68
Epsilon Energy Ltd CAD 227.9 201.2 10.53 6.97 1.86 1.34
Gale Force Petroleum Ltd CAD 5.7 5.0 3.36 2.50 0.20 0.16
Lynden Energy Corp CAD 97.4 86.0 14.53 14.04 1.21 1.19
Rooster Energy Ltd CAD 80.1 70.7 17.60 6.41 0.96 0.34
Shoreline Energy Corp CAD 32.9 29.0 7.19 4.07 0.56 0.38
Average
92.9 13.02 7.23 1.02 0.67
Activa Resources
EUR
22.2
27.7
5.33
3.26
0.30
0.15
Premium/(Discount) to peer group
-59.0% -54.9% -70.8% -77.9%
Weighted average discount to peer group -65.4%
Source; Company data; First Berlin Equity Research
Bond conversion offers a cheaper way into the Activ
a stock
Activa currently has
€2.06m of unconverted bond debt which matures on 4
December 2014. The bonds are
convertible into shares at €2.00 and the redemption
premium at maturity is 10%. Some bond
holders may reason that they are better off holding
the bonds to maturity than converting. If
all existing bond holders hold their bonds to matur
ity on 4 December their total proceeds will
be €2.27m. If they convert and sell shares at the c
urrent price of €2.05 their proceeds would
only be €2.11m.
However, those bondholders who believe in the Activa
equity story would be well advised to
convert in our view. Low liquidity suggests that th
e actual cost of establishing a position in
Activa would be substantially above the current quot
ed offer price. Bond conversion offers a
cheap way into the stock for holders of significant
amounts of the bond.
jetzt rauscht es aber runter, die Frage ist, wann sind Schnäppchenpreise?
WEnn ich mir die aktuellen Ölpreisprognosen für 2015 von
50-60 Dollar anschaue, werden wir noch deutlich
niedrigere Kurse bei Öl-AGs erleben.
50-60 Dollar anschaue, werden wir noch deutlich
niedrigere Kurse bei Öl-AGs erleben.
Activa zahlt 2 Anleihen zurück:
DGAP-News: Activa Resources AG / Schlagwort(e): Anleihe Activa Resources zahlt zwei Anleihen zurück05.12.2014 / 08:30
- Tilgung bei Endfälligkeit am 4. Dezember in Höhe von EUR 2,15 Mio.
- 40% der Wandelanleihe wurde seit Begebung in neue Aktien gewandelt
- Grundkapital erhöht sich durch diesjährige Wandlungen von EUR 5,20 Mio. auf EUR 5,47 Mio. - Aktuell ausstehendes Anleihevolumen von EUR 3,48 Mio. mit Fälligkeit 2017
Bad Homburg, 5. Dezember 2014. Die Activa Resources AG, eine unabhängige Erdöl und Erdgas Explorations- und Produktionsgesellschaft, hat bei Endfälligkeit am 4. Dezember 2014 zwei ausstehende Anleihen in Höhe von EUR 2,15 Mio. zurückgezahlt. Neben der 8 % Anleihe 2010/2014 mit einem Volumen von EUR 0,39 Mio. wurde auch die 8 % Wandelanleihe 2011/2014 mit noch rund EUR 1,76 Mio. Volumen bedient. Zusätzlich hat Activa im Jahresverlauf ca. EUR 0,35 Mio. der Anleihen im Markt zurückgekauft.
Bei der Wandelanleihe wurden seit der Auflage insgesamt EUR 1,25 Mio. bzw. ca. 40% des Emissionsbetrages in 0,63 Mio. neue Aktien zu EUR 2 pro Aktie gewandelt.
Das Grundkapital erhöht sich nach der Eintragung ins Handelsregister der 2014 gewandelten Anleihen entsprechend von EUR 5,20 Mio. auf EUR 5,47 Mio., eingeteilt in 5,47 Mio. Aktien. Finanziert wurde die Ablösung der Anleihe durch die Aufstockung der 8 % Anleihe 2013/2017 sowie durch die bestehende Kreditlinie.
Nach der Rückzahlung der beiden genannten Anleihen ist die 8 % Anleihe 2013/2017 (ISIN DE000A1YCS50) im Volumen von rund EUR 3,48 Mio. die einzige noch ausstehende Anleihe der Activa Resources AG. Diese Anleihe kann flexibel bis EUR 5 Mio. aufgestockt werden.
Der Vorstand
Am Mittwoch präsentiert sich Activa auf der Münchner Kapitalmarkt Konferenz.
Sollte jemand dort teilnehmen, könnte er vielleicht (auf welchem Weg auch immer) mir/uns berichten?
http://www.activaresources.de/Finanzkalender.html
Gruß Wood-Cutter
Sollte jemand dort teilnehmen, könnte er vielleicht (auf welchem Weg auch immer) mir/uns berichten?
http://www.activaresources.de/Finanzkalender.html
Gruß Wood-Cutter
wundert mich, dass der Kurs bei dem Ölpreisverfall gar nicht so leidet, liegt das daran, dass der Wert schon vorher niedrig bewertet wurde?
keiner mehr da?
ich frage mich ob das jetzt der Boden ist, dachte ich bei 2 euro auch schon ...
ich frage mich ob das jetzt der Boden ist, dachte ich bei 2 euro auch schon ...
Beitrag zu dieser Diskussion schreiben
Investoren beobachten auch:
Wertpapier | Perf. % |
---|---|
+0,61 | |
+0,41 | |
0,00 | |
0,00 | |
+2,49 | |
-0,17 | |
0,00 | |
0,00 | |
+3,76 | |
0,00 |
Meistdiskutiert
Wertpapier | Beiträge | |
---|---|---|
118 | ||
98 | ||
96 | ||
84 | ||
58 | ||
43 | ||
42 | ||
34 | ||
33 | ||
32 |