Gulf Keystone Irak-Ölperle Deutschland schläft - Älteste Beiträge zuerst (Seite 99)

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.061.309 von texas2 am 27.06.15 09:37:22

Aus dem Jahresbericht 2014

Gross liftings were 6.5 million barrels of oil (2013: 304,680
barrels of oil). Of these liftings six million barrels were lifted
for the export market and 0.5 million barrels for the domestic
market. Revenue realised for the period was $38.6 million,
of which $28.2 million arose from export sales (2013: $Nil)
and $10.4 million from domestic sales (2013: $6.7 million).

Wenn man für 1 bbl Öl 50 bis 100 $ erlösen kann wären das bei 6,5 mio bbl Öl irgegend etwas bei 650 bis 325 Mio $ für 2014 also weit weg von den tatsächlich erlösten 38,6 mio $ bei GKP (schon klar: damit muss capex, opex, Förderzins etc bezahlen - aber mir geht es hier um die Verhältnismäßigkeit). Finde es ein wenig übertrieben, wenn GKP es "feiernd" herausstreicht wenn sie zB einen 15 mio $ Scheck überwiesen bekommen. Würde eher sagen die leben zur Zeit von Almosen. Kein Wunder dass man Angst haben muss dass die pleite gehen - glaube/hoffe ich aber nicht. Das Geld ist offensichtlich in die Taschen der Kurden/Iraker geflossen. Mit diesen Millionen hätte man wahrscheinlich auch die ISIS bestechen können, damit die aufhören zu kämpfen.

Der abgestürzte Kurs von GKP ist für mich ein Zock wert aber ich wäre nicht so weit, richtiges Geld dort zu investieren, allein schon wegen dem einen oder anderen Politiker Clan, der dort reicher wird.

[Eulenfoerster]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.065.392 von texas2 am 28.06.15 10:59:47

Schon richtig, dass Gulf dahinraffen kann, wenn es so weitergeht. Aber das betrifft ja auch die anderen Firmen. Und wenn's so weitergeht, ziehen sich die Firmen zurück und die Iraker stehen ohne Firmen da.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.065.392 von texas2 am 28.06.15 10:59:47

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/gkp-tv-video-pla…

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/91221/gulf-keystone-2015-a…


aus iii:

Here is my quick summary of some interesting points from the Agm. Some of this may have been covered and I may have missed other points...and in no particular order

Surprisingly low shareholder turnout - 17 I think was the number. Board and senior team very engaged with shareholders who attended

Getting paid is top priority, they all talked about it. I sense there have been robust discussions with MNR who eg know about 26m October interest payment. No guarantees but expectation of at least a drip feed whilst payments are sorted. Confirmed they are talking to the decision makers - Dr Ashti is the main contact

Big focus on keeping costs under control and several examples given.

On M&A presently it seems there may be a difference between buyer and seller price perceptions but still some serious names in the data room . They will not cut a deal at any price

JF will spend 1w per month in ERbil . On going discussions with other IOCs on areas of common interest

Commitment to future shareholder events/ communications

13m barrels of Shaikan crude produced and sold , 95% from upper Jurassic reservoir. 100% dry oil. At pf2 some water handling problems but all drilling water not formation water.

Reservoir is extremely well connected over 25km

1km oil column -3 London Shards

Aquifer is not acting as expected but it's good news. I may get this wrong... But it seems as oil is extracted it would be expected that water level would rise but instead the gas cap at the top of the reservoir is moving downwards and therefore the pressure drops. Others may understand this better but JS said it was good news

FDP update for Shaikan by year end, SA FDP by Q3

Every Shaikan barrel produced has been sold. 3 sales channels, 1 trucking to Dortoyl, net back to the field after discount for heavy oil and transport costs $22-27 per barrel, 2. Domestic sales of just under 1m barrels net back to the field $22-27 as above, and 3. Injection into pipeline at Fishkabour (sp!) to commence soon- testing done, no timescale given but expected soon - net after costs and discount $50-54 per barrel

SZ - Gulf was his client since 2011 prior to joining as FD.

Unrecognised revenue ie unpaid is $103m, was $102m at year end hence broadly all 2015 sales have been generating cash - not a coincidence

Equity raise earlier in year served its purpose to provide the required bridge until payments or other transactions. Current cash at 72m described as satisfactory. Arrears not likely to be received this year but. Expect to get paid from this point onwards

Cash burn is 8-10m per month plus capex at 1 to 2m per month

Q whether M&A is a distraction. AS said they would want to draw a line under it if a deal not forthcoming. He still intends to buy shares when/if not in close period

Q re ultra conservative CPR. Per JS it's a good baseline. They won't know how good the field is for several years particularly re recovery factor in the matrix, hence v low 3-7% used in CPR. JF quoted "big fields get bigger" mantra. He also said there was an awareness in other companies of how good our asset is - from his own experience at Maersk. They seem to be a bit coy on this as you would imagine info has been provided in data room for potential buyers

Q re why big turnover in directors and can we expect stability going forward. Yes to the latter but did not really deal with first point

Directors pay is at lower levels than in past and to be aligned with shareholders interests

Not happy re Sky leaks. Could spend a lot of money to try to get to the bottom of it but probably not worth it. Will be emphasising need for confidentiality to staff

Bonds c 5/6 entities hold >50% of bonds

No plan to sidetrack Sh6 - money better spent elsewhere. General Sense that ERbil team are champing at the bit to move things along but constrained by payments/ cash for capex

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.155.113 von texas2 am 10.07.15 06:49:35

PF-2 has small amounts of water currently restricting flow to 20,000 bopd. Water is from drilling fluid,
plans to deal with this are underway

Diese Aussage erschließt sich mir aus fachlicher Sicht überhaupt nicht. Warum sollten small amounts of water, die noch dazu vom drilling fluid stammen die Produktion auf 20.000 bbl/d begrenzen??

[Eulenfoerster]

http://www.shortnews.de/id/1163317/irak-kurden-exportieren-o…
Sollte für Einnahmen sorgen und den Druck auf die irakische Regierung erhöhen.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.166.570 von Eulenfoerster am 11.07.15 20:52:24

Oilman63 11 Jul'15 - 12:57 - 432227 of 432232 10 0

I said I would put my thoughts forward regarding the AGM but I've just spent the morning reading through the posts posted over the last few days and it would seem that my fellow attendees have covered most bases.

I had the pleasure of spending around an hour with Jon Ferrier, Phil Dimmock and a couple of posters off the LSE in the bar on the Wednesday night. I think Jon comes across as a very decent, credible person and certainly the breath of fresh air that this company badly needed. I think he is overwhelmed by the amount of information that he is being asked to take on board as well as running the company. I put across many of my own points as well as quite a few of the general PI points and I found him very receptive to what I had to say. Not a bullshit type receptive, he came across as genuinely interested and concerned about things that had gone on in the past and about things that have been going on recently.

One point I pushed quite strongly was the fact that this company is 70% (ish) owned by PI's and they have zero contact with the people, company and asset that they've invested in due to the failings of the current IR department. We discussed the possibility of a Shareholder Meeting / Presentation being held in London so the majority of people would be able to attend. He took all this on board quite willingly, addressed it within the AGM and promised to take a serious look at the company's IR and try to right some wrongs.

We discussed past events, CPRs bonds, asset being undervalued, things said by previous management. In all fairness he held his hands up, what can he do other than make sure that history does not repeat itself and try to get the best out of this asset for the benefit of long suffering shareholders. But this is very early days and I feel we should give him a chance to prove himself.

I also spent quite some time speaking to Sami, again somebody who instils far more confidence than our previous CFO. Sami is exploring every possible option within his ability and with the tools available to him to put this company back in a position of strength. The fact that he maintained a dialogue with the KRG to set up the payment structure that he has got is a credit to himself and he assures me that the KRG have assured him that when and as money is needed (i.e. bond payments) it will be forthcoming so the company will not be going bust as this would be very bad or the KRG. Our situation is still far from ideal and he's doing his absolute best to improve it.

Some points I observed,
During the AGM sheets of questions were handed out. From people's expressions and comments the way it was done was ill received and could have been done in a far more diplomatic manner. As I said previosly I was stood with some of the BoD just chewing the fat when the equivalent of a hand grenade burst in to the middle of us thrusting these questions upon us. I learnt years ago that this is not the way to go about getting answers when it comes to a BoD. I appreciate that lots of PI's are feeling extremely angry because of what has gone on previously and the fact that most are underwater. This type of approach is going to get shareholders nowhere and may even serve to put the company's back up against the PI. Hence why we have an unresponsive IR department.

The institutions get results because they vote whereas most PI's don't bother and choose to vent their spleens on to a public BB. These boards have become completely useless to the average investor and I personally think there needs to be a resetting of expectation. A lot of incorrect information and propaganda was pedalled on to these boards a couple of years ago that is slowly being proved to be incorrect (i.e. the institutions and JA's intentions) and when you go back to the ferocity of what some people were posting the mind boggles. Now I personally don't think that JA will be making a come back on

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.170.809 von texas2 am 12.07.15 23:00:36

https://live.ft.com/Events/2015/Camp-Alphaville-2015

hier wird der schillernde Simon Murray interviewt (Nummer 10) Zumindest sagt er, dass er noch nicht mit GKP fertig ist, und den großen investierten Fonds.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.294.256 von texas2 am 29.07.15 22:11:39

minus 14% gestern und jeder haut auf jeden ein = nicht die besten Voraussetzungen für Investitionen

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/30/kurdish-militants-strike…

Striking Pipeline, Kurdish Militants Deal Blow to Fellow Kurds
The PKK’s attacks on energy infrastructure in Turkey aren’t just directed at their longtime enemy in Ankara — they're also aimed at Iraqi Kurds they see as sellouts.
BY KEITH JOHNSONJULY 30, 2015.

Striking Pipeline, Kurdish Militants Deal Blow to Fellow Kurds

The already convoluted relations among Iraq, Turkey, and the regional and semi-autonomous Kurdish government located between them just got a whole lot murkier, with potentially grave implications for the one group that has so far carried the ground fight against the Islamic State in Iraq.

A long-active militant group, the Kurdish Workers’ Party (known as the PKK for its Turkish name), attacked a pair of energy pipelines inside Turkey this week, including a natural gas pipeline from Iran on Monday and an oil export pipeline that snakes from northern Iraq to the Turkish coast on Wednesday. The PKK’s armed wing reportedly took credit for the oil pipeline attack; Turkish officials blamed the PKK for the gas pipeline attack, which bore all the hallmarks of similar PKK strikes over the years.

The attacks are in response to Turkey’s armed crackdown on the group, which is being carried out under the guise of Ankara’s offensive against the Islamic State. Turkish warplanes, finally unleashed against the Islamic State, have also targeted PKK camps in Syria and Iraq over the last week, reportedly killing nearly 200 PKK militants. The attack on Kurdish rebels angered Turkey’s NATO allies, who were glad to see Ankara finally take steps to push back militarily against the Islamic State after months of inactivity but are wary of the latest crackdown. That’s especially true because Syrian Kurds allied with the PKK have been among the most effective fighters against the Islamic State.

State Department spokesman John Kirby said this week that the United States recognizes Turkey’s right to retaliate against the PKK. The United States, NATO, Turkey, and the European Union consider the PKK a terrorist group, and Turkey has for decades battled the outfit, which seeks greater representation for the Kurdish minority. But Ankara and the militants had enjoyed a cease-fire since 2013, raising hopes of a political solution to the impasse.

Here’s where things get complicated: The oil pipeline that the PKK attacked carries crude from Iraqi Kurdistan to the Turkish coast for export. That pipeline is the financial lifeline for Iraqi Kurds: It is the only way to sell serious volumes of crude oil that the Kurdish regional government needs to keep functioning, including paying the salaries of Peshmerga fighters who have battled the Islamic State in Iraq since last summer. In other words, while the attack blew up a pipeline inside Turkey, it was directed as much toward fellow Kurds as it was against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

That’s because the Iraqi Kurdish leader, Kurdish Regional Government President Masoud Barzani, has made nice with Turkey — the PKK’s historic enemy — in order to make his own independence dreams come true. In recent years, ties between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey have grown closer, cemented by the oil pipeline agreement that, for the first time, gives Iraqi Kurdistan the chance to break free from Baghdad. But that has not sat well with fellow Kurds.

“The PKK has a reason to stick it to both Barzani and Erdogan,” said Matthew Reed, a Mideast expert and vice president at energy consultancy Foreign Reports, Inc. “Barzani has traded dependence on Baghdad for dependence on Turkey. They see him as a sellout.”“Barzani has traded dependence on Baghdad for dependence on Turkey. They see him as a sellout.”

For now, the pipeline attacks haven’t crippled the energy infrastructure. Turkish and Iraqi energy officials expected the oil pipeline to be back in operation Thursday; Turkey’s pipeline ope

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.304.189 von texas2 am 31.07.15 07:26:41

The Kurdistan Regional Government said it will from September allocate a portion of the revenue from its direct crude oil sales to the international oil companies operating in the region, sending their share prices higher.

The plunge in oil prices, a deteriorating security situation and a dispute over the Kurdish region's energy autonomy with the Iraqi federal government has left foreign companies owed hundreds of millions of dollars, writes Anjli Raval.

Shares in London-listed Genel Energy - of which former BP chief Tony Hayward is chairman - are more than 10 per cent higher while Gulf Keystone Petroleum is up 12 per cent, although it is not yet clear at this stage what portion of revenues they will receive. Shares in DNO of Norway have gained 21 per cent at publication time.

The Kurdistan Regional Government's ministry for natural resources in a statement said:

From September 2015 onwards, the KRG will on a monthly basis allocate a portion of the revenue from its direct crude oil sales to the producing IOCs, to cover their ongoing expenses. Furthermore, as export rises in early 2016, the KRG envisages making additional revenue available to IOCs to enable them to begin to catch up on the past receivables due under their production sharing contracts.

The Kurdish region, which sits on top of some of the world's largest untapped oil reserves, is facing a cash crunch made worse by deteriorating relations with the Iraqi federal government. At the start of the year, the KRG reached a deal with Baghdad to export crude oil in exchange for a share of the national budget, which industry insiders say has effectively collapsed.

The tussle comes at a time when Iraq is more dependent than ever on its oil industry. Plunging oil prices and surging expenses to meet the costs of the war against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, has thrown Iraq into financial turmoil.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/370301/genel-gulf-keystone-lifted-k…

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.324.016 von texas2 am 03.08.15 22:43:36

And some more of his thoughts regards potential recovery


The recovery factors from the CPR for Shaikan in Jurassic are guesswork at best. The problem is that guessing is the best anyone can do at this stage. Shaikan recoverable resurces is calculated on the basis of rather low recovery rates, especially from the matrix. But it is not only Shaikan, if you look at Atrush for instance, the recovery factor for the field as a whole is currently set well below 20%. Maybe somewhere between 17-20%, we don't have the latest STOIIP figures for Atrush in the public domain, they reinterpreted the 3D seismics last year which led to a few changes in the field.

High recovery from the fractures and low (if any) recovery from the matrix, that is the assessment in Shaikan and Atrush. Everyone is looking at the matrix and wondering whether it will produce. Will the oil leave the matrix before water invades the surrounding fractures? They simply don't know yet. Only production data can give the guidance. Shaikan might start to give some answers on the matrix soon and a new CPR can probably adjust the recovery factors from the matrix to some extent, hopefully to the better.

Tawke could maybe serve as some sort of a comforting guidance. It had an estimated recovery rate at about 18% in 2007, 4 years laters the numbers were changed to 37% and I believe that Tony Hayward now believe that the field might breach the 50% level in recovery in the future. Even though Tawke is some distance away from the fields in the Shaikan area, the story from Tawke clearly shows that recovery factors are just guesswork in the early development phases. The story in Barda Rash shows that things can go bad as well. The fact that no water cut has been seen in Shaikan yet is a very good sign, but we need to know whether any oil has left the matrix yet to start playing around with the recovery numbers. Remember that in the long term test of Simrit-2, next door to Shaikan, the well produced water from Mus/Adaiyah after only 40 days of oil production in spite of a 65 meter oil column.

It is still early days. Will the field recovery remain at today's low CPR numbers? Will it double? Triple? Or be cut in half? Hard to tell, but I believe the upside potential for the recovery factor is far greater than the downside risk. The current numbers for Shaikan are conservative, and so they should be with only very limited data at hand.

Then we have Cretaceous and Triassic as well, where there is even less data available.

Sorry for not giving you a number to hold on to. It is simply not possible.
Place your bet, I have placed mine on higher recovery factor in Shaikan in the future, but the wheel spins and the ball can land on any number.

iii