Starbucks übertrifft Schätzungen um 2 Cents (Seite 87) | Diskussion im Forum

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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 31.846.787 von benny_m am 04.10.07 19:49:31

OK.

Klingt soweit alles plausibel.



zu 1.

Wie stark ist McCafe denn?

[benny_m]

1.) McCafe
2.) Massive Überbewertung
3.) Steigender Milchpreis
4.) Es wird wohl noch dauern bis alle Märkte erschlossen sind.

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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 22.462.243 von spaceistheplace am 08.07.06 11:40:49

Habe mir die Aktie mal genauer angeschaut.

Meine Sicht:

1. Grundidee

Starbucks ist eine hyperkapitalistische Geldmaschine, sehr ähnlich vom Prinzip mit McDonalds

2. Fundamentale Bewertung

- Der Innere Wert liegt - gemessen am Gewinn von 2007 - etwas über dem aktuellen Kurs, der ja sehr gefallen ist. Starbucks hätte, in diser etwas optimistischen Sichtweise noch 10 % Kurspotential nach oben.

- Die Entwicklung der Gewinne betrachte ich als gut (2). Gut, weil die Gewinne die letzten 5 jahre wachsen. Besonders schön, dass die Gewinne so konstant und vorhersehbar wachsen, immer so um 16-30%.
Das macht die Aktie berechenbar.

3. Detailliertere Unternehmenssicht.
- Der Kaffeemarkt, als wesentliche Rahmenvariable wuchs die letzten 10 Jahre (1995-2005) um etwa 2% pro Jahr.
Das ist nicht gigantisch, aber gut.

- Starbucks wuchs seit den 90ern gigantisch. Teils mit 100, 200, 300 % pro Jahr. In den 2000er Jahren allerdings eher mit um die 20 %. Die ganze Investitionsidee ist, dass Starbucks - ähnlich McDonalds - ein die ganze Welt umspannender Konzern wird.
Nur hat Starbucks wohl schon die wesentliche Rauschhafte Wachstumsphase hinter sich.
Dennoch bleiben noch zu erschliessende Märkte, auch schon teils erschlossene Länder können noch weiter durchdrungen werden, man kann also zwar nicht mit einem spektakulären Wachstum rechnen, wohl aber mit einem soliden Wachstum.

- Starbucks scheint als Marke gut, mit hohem Wiedererkennungswert.

- Imageprobleme. Starbucks scheint eben doch sehr direkt verwertungsorientiert. Streitereien mit äthiopischen Kaffebauern und linke Lobbyisten sowie Gewerkschaftler nagen am Image.
Das ist das einzige Minus an der Aktie, allerdings auch kein kleines!

- Die Bilanz scheint gut, keine übermäßige Verschuldung oder ähnliches.

Fragen
Was mir noch unklar ist:
1. Gibt es Konkurrenz (großer Ketten). Wie stark ist diese.
2. Wie kommen diese starken Kursverluste in 2007 zustande. gerechtfertigt oder nicht?
3. Hängen die Kursverluste von den Imageprobleme ab? Wie sieht es mit dem Imageproblemen aus? Regelt sich das oder wirft es ein langfristig negatives Licht auf die Kette?
4. (Wie) Kann Starbucks langfristig wachsen, wenn alle Märkte (weitgehend) erschlossen sind?

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naja, 2,5% miese hält sich ja noch in Grenzen...
jedenfalls hier auch ne gute Meldung:

Starbucks und PepsiCo bauen Joint Venture aus


Seattle (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Kaffeehauskette Starbucks Corp. (ISIN US8552441094/ WKN 884437) und der Getränke- und Snackkonzern PepsiCo Inc. (ISIN US7134481081/ WKN 851995) gaben am Donnerstag bekannt, dass sie ihr Joint Venture über die nordamerikanische Region hinaus ausbauen wollen, um Fertig-Kaffeegetränke von Starbucks nach China zu bringen.
Den Angaben zufolge betreibt Starbucks derzeit mehr als 540 Filialen in Großchina. Durch die nun beschlossene Expansion wird China das erste Land außerhalb Nordamerikas sein, in dem Fertig-Kaffeegetränke von Starbucks über die Vertriebskanäle von PepsiCo (u.a. Lebensmittelgeschäfte, Mini-Märkte) verkauft werden.

Starbucks verkauft bereits Fertig-Kaffeegetränke in Südkorea, Japan und Taiwan über Geschäftsbeziehungen mit anderen Unternehmen. Das erweiterte Abkommen mit PepsiCo wird die Beziehungen in diesen drei Märkten indes nicht beeinflussen.

Die Aktie von Starbucks verliert an der NASDAQ vorbörslich derzeit 2,49 Prozent auf 27,00 Dollar, die von PepsiCo an der NYSE 0,04 Prozent auf 72,20 Dollar. (27.09.2007/ac/n/a)

Quelle: Finanzen.net 27.09.2007 15:23:00

[spaceistheplace]

wenn die meinen...mir reichen auch 20% wachstum

27.09.2007 13:23
Starbucks - Banc of America Sec. negativ gestimmt

New York (BoerseGo.de) - Starbucks (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) wird von Banc of America Securities von “neutral” auf “sell” herabgestuft. Die Analysten machen in der Begründung ihrer verminderten Sichtweise zu der Kaffeehauskette auf eine Wende in Richtung einer Wachstumsverlangsamung aufmerksam. Das Unternehmen stehe vor großen operativen Schwierigkeiten wie etwa einer Verlangsamung des Filialerlöswachstums, Margendruck, verstärkter Konkurrenz und schwächeren Konsumausgaben. Zwar sei Starbucks eine große Marke die weiterhin über Wachstumspotenzial verfügt, aber das Tempo der Steigerungsraten werde voraussichtlich abnehmen.

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24.09.2007 06:04
Digital Music ''Now Playing'' at Starbucks Stores with the Launch of the iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store on Oct. 2

On October 2, the iTunes (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) Wi-Fi Music Store, which features Starbucks (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) exclusive “Now Playing“ service, goes live in more than 600 Starbucks locations in New York and Seattle. In celebration of this historic launch, Starbucks announced today that it will introduce the digital music experience across all of its U.S. company-operated and licensed stores by offering its customers the “Song of the Day,“ an unprecedented free digital music promotion. From October 2 to November 7 at more than 10,000 Starbucks locations, customers may receive “Song of the Day“ cards redeemable on the iTunes Store for Mac or PC (www.itunes.com) for a complimentary song hand-selected by Starbucks Entertainment. Throughout the promotion, Starbucks will give away 1.5 million downloads on iTunes per day for a total of more than 50 million free songs.

“This is a landmark moment for Starbucks,“ said Ken Lombard, president of Starbucks Entertainment. “With the launch of the iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store at Starbucks we can now provide the same classic coffeehouse experience and compelling music offerings our customers have come to expect from us through a new platform ideal for the digital music consumer. This is the first step in combining the power of brick and mortar retail and digital music.“

“Song of the Day“ kicks off Starbucks exclusive partnership with Apple, which lets customers use the T-Mobile HotSpot Wi-Fi Network at participating Starbucks to wirelessly download music onto their iPhone, iPod touch or laptop from the iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store with no Wi-Fi connection fees or HotSpot login required.

Starbucks will also introduce a new “Now Playing“ feature, which allows customers using the iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store at Starbucks to instantly preview, buy, and download the music currently playing overhead. This is the only technology of its kind that allows customers to download the music they discover in the environment around them.

“Song of the Day“ will offer hand-picked songs from top artists including Bob Dylan, Joss Stone, Dave Matthews, Bebel Gilberto, John Mayer, KT Tunstall, John Legend, Annie Lennox, Joni Mitchell, Keith Urban and Paul McCartney plus great music from up-and-coming artists such as Sia, Band of Horses, Hilary McRae, Frederico Aubele and Sara Bareilles.

Each morning and while supplies last, Starbucks customers nationwide can discover that day's complimentary download as part of their daily coffee routine. Upon receiving their complimentary download card at Starbucks, customers will have until the end of the calendar year to redeem the song on the U.S. iTunes Store.

Starting October 2, Starbucks company-operated locations in the U.S. will offer iTunes Digital Release Cards for sale, including KT Tunstall's “Drastic Fantastic“ with bonus music videos, digital booklet and a behind-the-scenes documentary video, and music from the film “Into the Wild,“ featuring all new songs from Eddie Vedder with bonus tracks and digital booklet. Each iTunes Digital Release Card contains a full album's worth of music and features collectible artwork. After the card is activated upon purchase at Starbucks, customers can download the album and bonus material on the iTunes Store for Mac or PC.

Starbucks will also offer the Starbucks Card Plus Two, a limited edition re-loadable Starbucks card with added bonus value. When a Starbucks Card Plus Two is registered online the cardholder will receive two complimentary song downloads of their choice on the U.S. iTunes Store.

The iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store at Starbucks will continue its national rollout to 350 Starbucks stores in the San Francisco Bay area in early November; 500 stores in Los Angeles in early February 2008; 300 stores in Chicago in March 2008; and additional markets throughout the U.S. later in 2008. The iTunes Wi-Fi Music Store at Starbucks will run on the robust T-Mobile HotSpot Wi-Fi network, which is available at participating Starbucks locations across the U.S.

About Starbucks

Starbucks Coffee Company (Nasdaq: SBUX) provides an uplifting experience that enriches people's lives one moment, one human being, one extraordinary cup of coffee at a time. To share in the experience, visit www.starbucks.com.

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Saturday Interview
Founder Sees Lots of Room for Lots More Starbucks

By ELISABETH MALKIN
Published: September 22, 2007

HOWARD SCHULTZ, the chairman of Starbucks, was in Mexico this month to celebrate the fifth anniversary of the company’s first store there.
Skip to next paragraph
Henry Romero/Reuters

Howard Schultz

The company is accelerating its global expansion even as Wall Street analysts argue that Starbucks may have already saturated the market in the United States. At the same time, Starbucks faces new competition from fast-food franchises like McDonald’s and Dunkin’ Donuts that have begun offering their own specialty coffees. And it faces the question of whether customers will defect if prices continue to rise.

Those concerns have hit Starbucks stock hard. It has fallen about 30 percent since its high last November of $39.43.

Following are excerpts from an interview:

Q. There was skepticism that Starbucks would find much of a market in Mexico, given the country’s small middle class.

A. When I was here five years ago for the opening I remember doing interviews with so many cynics who said, “Why are you coming here?”

Here we are five years later not only with success but success that has really exceeded expectations, with 150 stores. And now I think that the size of the market is much larger than we originally thought. I think this is emblematic of so many of the other markets that we’ve opened around the world.

And yet I keep reading analysts’ reports about Starbucks saturation, which is quite surprising. They use that word now to describe the future of the company. Statistically, if you look at some of the data, we have less than 10 percent share of total coffee consumption in North America and less than 1 percent share of total coffee consumption internationally. The long-term size of the prize for us is quite significant.

Q. Is Mexico a model for growth in countries with a wide gap between rich and poor?

A. Therein lay the cynicism five years ago. It’s one thing to open up Starbucks in Paris, where we now have 50-plus successful stores, with Parisians drinking Starbucks coffee. We’re opening in Brazil, China. We’re opening in Russia. What it harkens back to is that Starbucks around the world is an affordable luxury.

Q. You announced last year that Starbucks wanted to grow to 40,000 stores.

A. We currently have over 14,000 stores in 43 countries. It roughly breaks down to 4,000 outside of North America, 10,000 in the United States and Canada. And what we said publicly at an analysts’ conference was that the long-term growth plans are for 40,000 stores, 20,000 in the United States and Canada, and 20,000 outside. I said at the annual meeting that we would roughly double the size of the company in four years, opening approximately 10,000 new stores in four years.

Q. Where will most of that growth be?

A. I think people have been writing about saturation since we went public in 1992, and we’re far from that in the United States and Canada. The truth is that there isn’t any market that we’re in — our largest market internationally is Japan, with roughly about 800 stores, and the second is the United Kingdom, with 600 — that is approaching anything but opportunity.

So we will continue to spread out the store base. But I’ve said publicly that China will ultimately be the second-largest market in the world for Starbucks outside the United States. We have over 600 stores now in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan — I think about 275 in mainland China — and what we’ve seen in that market has given us tremendous confidence for the future. I feel very optimistic about the growth plans for the company and where we’re going.

Q. Why isn’t the stock responding to your optimism?

A. You’d have to ask the sophisticated analyst on the Street. If you look at the public life of Starbucks, in 15 years we have continued to do things that have built long-term value for the shareholders. There have been often times where the stock has lagged. But I think the stock will take care of itself. I’m not worried about the stock price.

Q. What about ensuring sourcing as you grow? I was in coffee-growing regions of Chiapas in April and Starbucks there is working with a middleman because the demand is so large. Starbucks itself seemed to be very distant to the farmers, even though you emphasize those relationships.

A. Let me try to go from 30,000 feet down as it relates to supply and the issue of arabica and what’s going on around the world. First off, I think pricing over the near term will be fairly stable unless there’s some weather catastrophe or something unprecedented.

We have traveled on average about 300 days a year in the last five years for the sole purpose of ensuring sustainability and long-term relationships with existing suppliers, and then doing the kind of work that would uncover new sources of high-quality arabica in existing and new markets.

I believe that we have established a competitive advantage in the marketplace that is not only sustainable but will differentiate us because there won’t be enough of that high-quality coffee to go around.

Q. And that advantage is your relationship with the growers?

A. One of the things that I’ve learned over the years is that everyone is willing to pay a high price for high-quality coffee when the market is high. Very few if any — other than us — are willing to pay a premium when the market goes down.

Q. You have been on the record about the need to reform health care. What role do you want to play between now and the November elections?

A. Over the last couple of years, I’ve been back and forth to Washington, more times than I would like to remember, sometimes alone and often with other C.E.O.’s. The primary hope was to get health care reform on the Congressional agenda. It’s still not on the Congressional agenda. We’re spending $1.5 billion or so on the Iraq war and we can’t solve the health care problem in America.

Q. What about with the candidates?

A. I’ve met with many of the candidates and I’m cautiously optimistic. But it is an election year.

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netter Artikel aus Motley Fool:

Starbucks' New CFO
By Alyce Lomax September 13, 2007
3
Recommendations
Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) recently presented at Goldman Sachs' 14th Annual Global Retailing Conference, and participants were in for an introduction to CFO designate Peter Bocian, who will take over the role on Oct. 1, when Michael Casey leaves the post.

Financial guidance for earnings and revenues for 2007 and 2008 hasn't changed since previous communications. However, Bocian fielded some interesting questions about some of Starbucks' competitive strategies and current situation. And Casey popped in to answer some questions for old time's sake several times as well.

Smoothie sailing
My former housemate used to insist on calling Starbucks' Strawberries & Creme Frappuccinos "smoothies," but the baristas would have none of it. As it turns out, Starbucks has been testing actual smoothies. Although Bocian wouldn't say whether the smoothies have been successful in trials, he did point to two trends Starbucks can take advantage of: the health-and-wellness trend and the satisfaction customers get from seeing beverages made by hand.

Some might wonder whether conquering markets like China and India might be easier said than done, and one questioner pointed out that both of these massive countries are traditionally tea-drinking cultures. While Starbucks does serve tea (it has an entire line called Tazo), Bocian said that although the company "leads" with coffee, the "Starbucks experience" is gaining a strong reception, regardless of whether cultures traditionally prefer coffee or its less caffeinated alternative.

Not surprisingly, Starbucks said it embraces competition from large chains like McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). The more people are aware of and educated about quality coffee, the more Starbucks can capitalize on the expanding market. Starbucks also believes that its experience is well differentiated from its rivals.

Balance sheet balancing act
Dairy will continue to represent a high cost in 2008, as it has in 2007. Although dairy prices are expected to improve next year, Bocian said improvements won't occur till late 2008. He also said the company is trying to strike the appropriate balance between pricing and the customer experience. After all, the company has increased prices twice in recent memory.

While the company plans to improve international margins, it's currently choosing to take that hit in order to drive long-term strategy. Slower growth overseas might allow Starbucks to more quickly improve its margins, but given the opportunities in entering new markets (it has recently entered Russia, as well), such international expansion is a serious part of Starbucks' long-term strategy.

As for the balance sheet, Starbucks was questioned on its increasing debt, given the macro credit environment right now. Michael Casey popped in for that question, explaining that the company chose to add debt into its capital structure in order to reduce its weighted average cost of capital. It's been buying back shares and will continue to do so for as long as the stock is viewed as undervalued. He also said that, in the future, shareholders can expect Starbucks to keep it up and possibly even introduce a dividend, with an element of debt on the balance sheet.

My ears perked up at "dividend." Although dividends are often associated with slow growers, some growth-oriented companies, like Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI), do return cash to shareholders this way. And for now, Starbucks' growth is slowing (just a tad), even though it still plans 40,000 total stores when all is said and done.

Maybe the thing that doesn't impress me as much is using debt for such purposes. While I know some companies do use debt in this manner -- and I know that debt is not necessarily bad, when it's taken on in a prudent manner -- I generally prefer companies that don't have debt on their balance sheets. There's an argument that debt-fueled buybacks and dividends can be a bit of financial engineering that not all of us shareholders feel entirely comfortable with, especially given debt's risks when times get tough, either for a specific company or for the economy at large. (The Fool has two very enlightening articles on capital structures and debt. Check them out here and here.)

Growth's on the menu
I have recently admitted that Starbucks is facing challenges as it continues to expand; maybe I'm a cynic, but I love to ponder risks, and I feel it's wrong to ignore them. Still, too much gloom and doom seems a bit misguided here, so Starbucks shareholders shouldn't fret too much

I mean, can we really complain that much about double-digit growth in earnings and sales, even if the rates are slowing down just a tad? Plus, Starbucks' debt-to-capital ratio is 27%, which doesn't sound like too much leverage, given its strong cash flow. And, of course, most of us have already noticed that -- as negativity has taken hold -- Starbucks has lately been trading significantly below its historical price-to-earnings ratio. And while the coffee giant may face challenges and tougher rivalry, given the company's historical success, it's easy to imagine that Starbucks will overcome challenges and increase its market share -- all while continuing its expansion and penetrating new markets.

At any rate, whether you consider yourself a Starbucks bull or bear, the Goldman conference introduced a new executive and served up some interesting strategic food for thought.

[spaceistheplace]

so langsam kommt Buxe wieder aus den Löchern...
Hier noch ne aktuelle kaufempfehlung mit ein paar netten Infos:

Starbucks kaufen (Aktienservice Research)


Bad Nauheim (aktiencheck.de AG) - Die Analysten von "Aktienservice Research" empfehlen derzeit die Aktien von Starbucks (ISIN US8552441094/ WKN 884437) zum Kauf.
Der Kaffeehaus-Betreiber Starbucks habe für das dritte Quartal des laufenden Geschäftsjahres 2006/07 sehr solide Ergebnisse gemeldet. Der Umsatz sei um 20 Prozent auf 2,36 Milliarden US-Dollar gestiegen. Dabei seien die Same-Store-Sales, also die Erlöse in den Filialen, die seit mindestens einem Jahr geöffnet seien, immerhin um vier Prozent vorangekommen. Der Nettogewinn habe sich um neun Prozent auf 158,3 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 21 Cents je Aktie erhöht und habe damit exakt die Analystenschätzungen getroffen.

Wenngleich sich die Zuwachsraten mit zunehmender Größe und dem weiteren Fortschritt der Expansion naturgemäß etwas abschwächen würden, verfüge der US-Konzern dennoch weiterhin über jede Menge Wachstumspotenzial. Starbucks treibe die weltweite Expansion konsequent voran. Allein bis 2010 wolle der Konzern weitere 10.000 Filialen eröffnen. Langfristig peile Starbucks eine Zahl von 40.000 Coffee-Shops an. Gegenüber dem aktuellen Stand entspräche dies einem Anstieg von rund 180 Prozent. Nachdem der Konzern die Marke in China bereits erfolgreich etabliert habe, habe Starbucks vor kurzem den Markteintritt ins Kaffeeland Brasilien gewagt. Demnächst sollten auch in Indien und Russland die ersten Starbucks-Läden eröffnen.

Um das weitere Wachstum voranzutreiben, gehe Starbucks auch im Marketing neue Wege. So würden die Coffee-Shops in Nordamerika zum Music-Shop. Hier hätten Kunden die Möglichkeit, eigene CDs zusammenzustellen und zu brennen. Dazu kooperiere Starbucks mit Hewlett-Packard. Damit nicht genug: Vor einigen Monaten habe der Konzern sogar eine eigene Plattenfirma gegründet. Die selbst produzierten CDs würden sowohl in den Kaffeehäusern des Konzerns als auch bei traditionellen Musikhändlern verkauft.

Im Zuge der fortschreitenden Expansion werde Starbucks auch in den kommenden Jahren in der Lage sein, Umsatz und Gewinn weiter zu steigern. Sowohl beim Umsatz als auch beim Gewinn dürften Zuwachsraten von mindestens 20 Prozent auch in den nächsten Jahren erreichbar sein. Damit lege Starbucks weiterhin ein stattliches Wachstumstempo vor, das den Aktienkurs mittelfristig weiter antreiben sollte. Die Chancen würden also nicht schlecht stehen, dass nach der Korrektur der vergangenen Monate der langfristige Aufwärtstrend bald wieder aufgenommen werde.

Dem zu erwartenden Wachstum stehe eine Bewertung gegenüber, die so günstig sei wie noch nie seit dem Börsengang. Mit einem Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (2007/08e) von 25 sei die Aktie zwar auch nach dem Kursrückgang kein Schnäppchen, die Bewertung lasse jedoch Spielraum für erneut deutlich höhere Notierungen. Und auch aus charttechnischer Sicht sei eine Wende möglich. Seit der Kurs Ende Juni auf den niedrigsten Stand seit Oktober 2005 gefallen sei, habe sich die Aktie stabilisieren können. Denkbar sei nun eine Bodenbildung, die dann eine gute Gelegenheit zum Einstieg bieten könnte.

Vor diesem Hintergrund lautet das Rating der Analysten von "Aktienservice Research" für die Aktien von Starbucks auf "kaufen". Der Stoppkurs sollte bei 24,20 US-Dollar platziert werden. (Global Markets Ausgabe 354 vom 21.08.07) (22.08.2007/ac/a/a)
Analyse-Datum: 22.08.2007

Analyst: Aktienservice Research
Rating des Analysten: kaufen


Quelle: aktiencheck.de 22.08.2007 09:45:00

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20.08.2007 17:42
Starbucks senior unsecured notes rated 'Baa1' with stable outlook - Moody's

MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Moody's (Nachrichten) Investors Service said it has assigned its 'Baa1' ratings to Starbucks Corp' (Nachrichten/Aktienkurs) s planned issuance of 500 mln usd of senior unsecured debt with a stable outlook, while it affirmed the company's 'Prime-2' short-term rating for commercial paper.

The ratings reflect Starbucks' meaningful scale, stable market metrics, relatively strong credit metrics, good liquidity, and also consider its aggressive growth strategy, increasing competition, and commodity cost pressures, Moody's said.

The stable outlook reflects Moody's view that Starbucks will prudently manage its growth strategy in an effort to minimise any potential brand dilution or deterioration in liquidity.

The agency said it expects the company's ongoing operating performance and cash flows will comfortably cover all the internal requirements.

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