FIRSTSOLAR - $1,50 pro Wp - Werden die etablierten Solarzellenhersteller unter Druck kommen? (Seite 18)

[Pebbles]

Sieht nicht so gut aus --- und mit Trump gibt es zusätzliche Sorgen; er ist kein Öko :-(

Auszug aus: https://www.fool.de/2016/11/10/3-solar-giganten-denen-eine-s…

First Solars (WKN:A0LEKM) Ergebnisse von vergangener Woche haben Investoren einen Überblick darüber verschafft, wie die Solar-Industrie in den kommenden Jahren aussehen könnte. Und obwohl das Unternehmen seine Prognosen für 2017 noch nicht preisgegeben hat, wissen wir, dass die US-Solarindustrie im laufenden Jahr eine installierte Nennleistung in Höhe von 1,6 GW verzeichnet hat. Dies entspricht einem Auftragsvolumen von 1,1 Mrd. US-Dollar. Und für das Jahr 2017 sind bisher Aufträge mit einem Volumen von 494 MW eingegangen — ein Wert, der weit unter dem maximalen Leistungsvermögen der Branche von 3,2 GW liegt.

[R-BgO]

First Solar offloads skytron energy

By Mark Osborne Nov 02, 2016 1


Liberta Partners said in a statement that ‘all strategic decisions will be made together with the skytron energy management and future investments will focus on the company’s flagship products such as the SCADA software ‘PVGuard’. Image: skytron

Leading CdTe thin-film producer First Solar has sold its PV power plant monitoring, control and supervision systems subsidiary, skytron energy to German business management firm, Liberta Partners. Financial details were not disclosed.

During a previous conference call to discuss second quarter financial results, Mark Widmar, CEO of First Solar noted that it was exploring opportunities to sell its O&M business unit, skytron energy. First Solar acquired skytron energy from AEG Power Solutions in 2014 for an undisclosed sum.

“The evolution of our module form factor combined with the lower line of system projects in 2017 implies a reduced need for internal EPC services and requires a reduction in our EPC workforce,” noted Widmar at the time.

“skytron energy’s global footprint and technical track record make it a solid investment that fits well into our strategy of acquiring enterprises with strong growth potential,” said Dr. Peter Franke, Partner of Liberta Partners. “Its portfolio of products, services, and solutions make it a critical link in the solar energy value chain, allowing Liberta to gain a foothold in an exciting and growing industry.”

Liberta Partners said in a statement that ‘all strategic decisions will be made together with the skytron energy management and future investments will focus on the company’s flagship products such as the SCADA software ‘PVGuard’.

“With Liberta Partners, we have found a responsible investor, enabling skytron energy to further develop its range of innovative, high-quality monitoring systems solutions.” said Stephan Raulin energy. “We expect the acquisition to be immediately accretive so that skytron energy cannot only maintain but expand its position as the worldwide technical leader in its sector.”

First Solar reports third quarter 2016 financial results later today.

[Pebbles]

WOW --- bis jetzt 7,5 % plus

Ist das rein Chart getrieben? ich konnte keine neue Nachricht über First Solar finden.

[Pebbles]

Ein weiterer interessanter Artikel zur Firma

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4012147-fan-first-solar-time…

[Pebbles]

Interessanter und ausgewogener Artikel

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4011570-3-low-debt-solar-com…

[crimson]

Warum der Kursanstieg heute, und zwar bei einem neutralen Gesamtmarkt?

[Pebbles]

Ich bin heute eingestiegen

First Solar ist ja mächtig zurück gekommen und hat jetzt aber scheinbar einen Boden gefunden und legt ganz bedächtig wieder zu.

Ich habe deshalb ein Teil meiner Dt. Telekom verkauft um dort einzusteigen. First Solar bietet zwar keine Dividende, aber dafür eine mögliche Kurssteigerung von bestimmt über 50 %.

[BlueTornado]

Wie geht es weiter?

Ich würde mich über einen Gedankenaustausch zur weiteren Entwickling von FSLR freuen, da ich derzeit unsicher bin, ob ich meine nicht ganz kleine Position reduzieren oder eher nachkaufen soll.

Ein paar Gedanken von mir:
Ich verfolge den PV-Markt nicht mehr so genau wie vor ca. 2 Jahren, aber nach meinem Eindruck sind die Module von FSLR inzwischen hinreichen effizient, dass sie aufgrund des Mehrertrags pro Wp mit multikristallinen Si-Modulen mithalten können. Die Modulgröße soll wohl auch viel ausmachen (Series 5 ggü. 4 Vorteil wie 1%-Punkt Wirkungsgrad, hätte ich in dem Ausmaß nicht erwartet), weshalb so schnell wie möglich umgestellt wird, was natürlich erstmal kostet und dauert. Gleichzeitig sind die Produktionskosten sehr niedrig. Wobei gerade auch kristalline Preise purzeln, ist halt die Frage wie nachhaltig (Preise nicht gleich Kosten).

Durch die starke Bilanz und den hohen Cashbestand traue ich FSLR die Weiterentwicklung zu, im Wirkungsgrad gibt es ja wohl auch noch Luft nach oben.

ABER:
Wenn in Zukunft mehr Module als Systeme verkauft werden sollen (und so habe ich das verstanden), gehen natürlich die Umsätze pro MWp runter und die Nettomargen werden wohl auch nicht zweistellig. Wenn dann von einer möglichen Produktionskapazität von 6GWp imJahr 2020 die Rede ist, sind nur über Modulverkäufe wohl kaum mehr als 2 bis 2,5 Mrd$ Umsatz damit zu machen. Und dann ist die Marktkapitalisierung von fast 4Mrd $ ja trotz stabiler Bilanz und Cash nicht unbedingt günstig.
Und zuletzt besteht immer die Gefahr, dass eine andere Technologie (Perowskit-Zellen oder was auch immer) CdTe plötzlich abhängt und FSLR richtig dumm dasteht.

Bin wirklich unsicher, obwohl ich hoffe, dass sich langfristig (sagen wir in 5 Jahren) die Industrie ordentlich bereinigt und FSLR mit überlegener Technologie eine wichtige Position auf dem Weltmarkt einnimmt.

Achja, zum PV-Potenzial: Darüber lässt sich bestimmt streiten, aber ich sehe weltweit nur wenige TW installierter Leistung als problemlos machbar an. Wenn man die durch 20 teilt (Jahre Lebensdauer von Modulen, mindestens), ist in einer Größenordnung von 100 GW jährlichem Zubau Sense. Zubauzahlen von 500GW/a halte ich auch 2025 oder 2030 für unrealistisch...

Sorry für etwas chaotischen Post, da ich auf Tablet tippe, ist neustrukturieren gerade schwierig...

Meinungen?

[R-BgO]

First Solar in a big hole over 2017

Aug 04, 2016

By Mark Osborne, Senior News Editor



Mark Osborne has nearly three decades of experience in covering both the semiconductor and photovoltaics manufacturing industries. In his current roles as senior news editor for PV Tech and sister technical journal, Photovoltaics International, Mark covers the key developments in the PV industry on a global level and continues to provide insight and analysis via his editor's blog.


First Solar in a big hole over 2017

With First Solar’s revenue and shipment guidance unchanged and basically locked-in for 2016, despite solar industry dynamics becoming increasingly fluid, filling demand for 3GW of thin-film module capacity in 2017 has become a priority for management as a rather large hole in bookings is proving difficult to fill. Image: First Solar

With First Solar’s revenue and shipment guidance unchanged and basically locked-in for 2016, despite solar industry dynamics becoming increasingly fluid, filling demand for 3GW of thin-film module capacity in 2017 has become a priority for management as a rather large hole in bookings is proving difficult to fill.

In reporting second quarter 2016 financial results, First Solar reiterated previous revenue guidance for the full-year reaching US$3.8 billion to US$4.0 billion with module shipment guidance of 2.9GW to 3GW.

The company is therefore retaining manufacturing utilisation rates at 100% and squeezed-out a 1% quarter-on-quarter production rate gain that reached 784.8MW in the second quarter, up from 774MW in the prior quarter. Average CdTe module efficiency (16.2%) gains were flat with the prior quarter.


2017 challenges

First Solar’s management had previously noted that bookings (system sales and module sales) for business generating revenue, specifically in 2017, would be an issue, due to a number of factors.

Firstly, its ‘legacy’ US utility project business which had been a core part of its business in recent years, notably some of the largest projects ever built would be winding down and the company had admitted in the past that it had taken its eye of the ball in securing alternative business to fill the hole this created.

Secondly, the expected expiration of the US ITC incentive pushed out project development decisions and that last minute extension of the ITC at the end of 2016, came too late to really help First Solar with projects that could be started and completed in 2017.

Thirdly, the dynamics of the solar industry are shifting and these changes occur faster than often expected. Several factors in this aspect include looming module overcapacity, due to continued capacity expansion announcements that depress pricing and can delay project developer’s timings on starting projects.

Volatile market dynamics are also a factor, with the US expected to double installations in 2016 to around 14GW but decline back to 2015 levels of around 7.5GW in 2017.

First Solar has therefore had to focus on international markets for 2017 and beyond and with growth markets such as India and the MENA region driving down PPA’s and system prices to the lowest levels ever seen, creates a highly competitive and shrinking margin environment. Picking the right projects to build or supply modules for becomes increasingly challenging in the face of diminishing rewards.


Filling the hole

The fact that First Solar has continued to delay providing 2017 revenue and shipment guidance demonstrates the challenges in hand for the company. Management noted in the latest earnings call that 2017 currently remained ‘opaque’ and deferred providing better insight until much later in 2016, without being specific.

How much business First Solar has secured for revenue generation in 2017 is not clear but a certain level of clarity is possible.

According to Deutsche Bank analyst, Vishal Shah First Solar secured around 500MW of early-stage bookings for 2017 revenue generation as well as around 450MW of mid to late-stage bookings for next year during the first quarter of 2016.

Management noted in its second quarter earnings call that it booked around a further 250MW of systems projects, yet only around a third of the volume was scheduled for 2017 deliveries.

The company noted it was targeting 1GW of systems business in 2017, yet around only 400MW was contracted for next year, although more was expected.

First Solar also noted that mid to late-stage booking opportunities stood at 1.8GW, with almost 90% outside the US. Over 400MW of awarded but not booked volume was included in this figure, according to the company.

Management also noted that the bookings total in the first six months of 2016 totalled only 800MW, although almost 600MW had been booked in July alone. However, management did not say whether these bookings applied to 2017 revenue generation.


Module dependence

With the goal of 1GW of system bookings revenue in 2017, emphasis on third party module sales becomes increasingly likely. Global module ASP decline issues aside, global end market demand growth is becoming increasingly fragile, save higher than expected utility-scale development in India and MENA.

Luckily, First Solar expects to have around 1GW of Series 5 module capacity available in 2017, which significantly improves its cost competitiveness at a time ASPs are expected to be under significant pressure. However, selling 2GW of its mainstream Series 4 modules become the issue.

According to management, the Series 4 sales strategy includes a focus on hot, humid climates due to the temperature coefficient advantages of CdTe thin-film modules over conventional c-Si products. Select market opportunities that have not become slim margin markets are therefore the focus.

However, that comes with some challenges of its own.

“We're looking for pockets of strength where we can sell through and capture highest-margin opportunity entitlement that we have relative to what's going on in the marketplace, but we're very well aware of how aggressive some of the pricing has become,” noted First Solar’s CEO, Mark Widmar.

[R-BgO]

First Solar restructuring EPC and O&M operations with sale of skytron energy

By Mark Osborne Aug 04, 2016 10:14



Mark Widmar, CEO of First Solar said that its planned manufacturing and business shift to Series 5 thin-film modules and greater emphasis on module sales compared to project development and EPC work, would mean the company would reduce its internal EPC workforce.

Leading CdTe thin-film producer First Solar is undertaking a further round of restructuring that targets its EPC and O&M operations after its decision to shutdown its TetraSun crystalline silicon operations in Malaysia in early July.

During a conference call to discuss second quarter financial results, Mark Widmar, CEO of First Solar said that its planned manufacturing and business shift to Series 5 thin-film modules and greater emphasis on module sales compared to project development and EPC work, would mean the company would reduce its internal EPC workforce.

“Historically, we have self-performed EPC on the majority of our systems projects as well as provided EPC services to third-party developers using First Solar module technology,” noted Widmar in the earnings call. “The evolution of our module form factor combined with the lower line of system projects in 2017 implies a reduced need for internal EPC services and requires a reduction in our EPC workforce. While these decisions are difficult and will impact a number of dedicated associates, this is a necessary step.”

However, Widmar also said that “re-focusing efforts” would include exploring opportunities to sell its O&M business unit, skytron energy. First Solar acquired skytron energy from AEG Power Solutions in 2014.

“Our original intent in acquiring skytron was to expand our global O&M footprint into Europe and supplement our existing capabilities. Over the past two years competition for O&M contracts in Europe, combined with the progression of First Solar's internal O&M capability, particularly as it relates to smaller scale solar plants, has changed how skytron fits into our strategy going forward. Altogether we expect charges of US$105 million to US$120 million related to TetraSun and the actions we are announcing today,” added Widmar.

First Solar’s CEO also highlighted that its leaner EPC operations would continue to develop next-generation BOS (Balance of Systems) technologies, such as MVDC (Medium Voltage Direct Current) systems for utility-scale PV power plants as this was a key part of its future project development business.