Gulf Keystone Irak-Ölperle Deutschland schläft (Seite 21)

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.810.184 von Seefelder am 09.10.15 10:04:46

.. und jetzt wird auch noch von den Türken ein russisches Kampfflugzeug abgeschossen, ohne dass sich die Türken bis jetzt entschuldigen wollen.

Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government KRGHEWLÊR-Erbil, Kurdistan region ‘Iraq’,— Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced Sunday that investment companies are free to cancel their contracts with the government due to the economic crisis in the Kurdish region.

The KRG’s Council of Ministers made the decision allowing companies to cancel contracts and projects relating to budget investment, provincial developments, petrodollars or any other projects connected to the budget.

The decision was made “to assist companies and contractors which cannot continue or complete their projects that the government gave them due to the economic crisis in the Kurdistan Region,” the council said.

According to the decision, companies can end their government contracts after approval by ministers or the heads of government institutions.

The KRG’s economic issues began early in 2014 when then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stopped budget payments to Erbil over its attempts to sell its oil independent from Baghdad.

The subsequent war against militants in northern Iraq and an influx of over 1.8 million displaced Iraqis and Syrian refugees added to the region’s economic troubles.

The council added that it would give authority to the ministries, provinces and institutions to extend project timelines for those projects that cannot be completed due to the economic crisis.

The KRG is still three months behind on payments and blames the ongoing financial crisis due to global oil prices, a dispute with Baghdad over its share of the federal budget as well as the number of refugees and displaced Iraqis in the region.

Kurdish officials say they simply do not have enough money to pay salaries including for Peshmerga on the frontlines in the war against the Islamic State (IS).

[Seefelder]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.808.870 von texas2 am 09.10.15 07:02:58

Die Russen: verletzen türkischen Luftraum, lassen Raketen in den Iran abstürzen, unterstützen den syrischen Assad und verlieren einen wichtigen Rohölkunden in Ungarn durch kurdisches Öl


1.Die Russen: verletzen türkischen Luftraum,: ...dafür hat sich Russland entschuldigt.

2.lassen Raketen in den Iran abstürzen, :...dafür gibt es keinerlei Beweise. Die Iranische Regierung kann dies nicht bestätigen.

3.unterstützen den syrischen Assad: ...auch dies stimmt so nicht. Russland unterstützt die Syrische Regierung, welche legitim aus Wahlen hervorgegangen ist.

4.und verlieren einen wichtigen Rohölkunden in Ungarn durch kurdisches Öl : ...jedes Land, auch Ungarn kann frei wählen, woher sie ihre Rohstoffe beziehen. Und da MOL an GKP beteiligt ist, ist dies mehr wie nachvollziehbar.

Mit freundlichen Grüssen
Seefelder

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.781.147 von texas2 am 05.10.15 22:27:45

Die Russen: verletzen türkischen Luftraum, lassen Raketen in den Iran abstürzen, unterstützen den syrischen Assad und verlieren einen wichtigen Rohölkunden in Ungarn durch kurdisches Öl

Hungary imports oil from Iraq's Kurdistan at expense of Russian crude - sources
Reuters Middle EastReuters Middle East – 19 minutes ago

* Hungary boosts Kurdistan crude imports - trading sources
* Oil group MOL stepping up wider seaborne oil imports
* Sign MidEast producers may be gaining ground in global battle
By Gleb Gorodyankin

MOSCOW, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Hungary has increased oil imports from Iraq's Kurdistan region at the expense of Russian crude in a sign that Middle East producers could be gaining ground in a battle with Moscow for global market share, according to trading sources.

This would also be the first confirmation of large Kurdish oil shipments to Europe as autonomous Kurdistan is locked in a standoff with Baghdad over lucrative exports and faces repeated sabotage of the pipeline carrying crude to Turkey's Ceyhan port.

Hungarian oil group MOL receives the bulk of its oil imports from Russia. But it has stepped up imports of oil from Kurdistan since the summer, the sources told Reuters without giving specific volumes, part of a wider increase in seaborne crude purchases for the country's main refinery, Szazhalombatta.

"These are serious volumes, almost 40 percent of Szazhalombatta's needs," a trader said of total seaborne imports.

The sources said this would inevitably involve a reduction in imports of Russia's Urals blend, which come via the Druzhba pipeline.

MOL declined to say if it was buying blends from Kurdistan. It confirmed, however, that it was increasing purchases of blends other than Urals, but added that Urals would remain the main blend for its refineries.

The firm said it planned to ship in 12-18 cargoes of oil from sea this year, up from eight in 2014 and three in 2013.

Global oil prices have more than halved since June last year. Top exporter Saudi Arabia has refused to cut production as it guards market share, saying higher-cost oil producers would ultimately reduce output and help the market to rebalance

But U.S. oil output has proved more resilient than expected and Russia has continued to increase production in the past few months, further worsening the global glut. And Iraqi production has been also growing, both in the north and south.

DISPLACEMENT
A displacement of Russian volumes from Hungary - Russia's fourth-biggest oil export market, accounting for about a tenth of its pipeline oil exports to Europe - could illustrate how the supply glut is reshaping the global market.

Urals supplies to Hungary declined in January-August to 3.25 million tonnes from 3.7 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier.

Kurdistan ramped up independent oil exports in June, saying it had no other choice but to sell oil itself after Baghdad failed to allocate money to the region from its budget.

Baghdad has repeatedly described independent Kurdish sales as illegal and explained low budget allocations by saying Arbil was not transferring enough oil to state energy firm Somo.
Oil exports from northern Iraq rose in September to an average of 600,463 barrels per day (bpd), up by around 127,000 bpd from August, according to the Kurdistan region's ministry of natural resources.

The destinations of those exports have so far been unclear, since little information has been disclosed given Somo's repeated threat to take Kurdish oil buyers to court.
The trading sources also said that MOL had been using the JANAF utilised oil pipeline to bring in Kurdish imports from the Croatian port of Omisalj, displacing Urals in a conduit used to take the Russian blend from Hungary to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

"They get one to two cargoes a month. The pipeline from Croatia to the refinery is filled completely with Kirkuk," one trader said.

[texas2]

http://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5604030eefe9463a2…

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.737.749 von texas2 am 29.09.15 20:42:46

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/92461/erce_gkp_cpr_2015-09…

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.520.558 von texas2 am 30.08.15 20:42:53

The Future of Kurdistan’s Oil Sector

HADI FATHALLAH The Kurdish Regional Government is facing immense financial challenges, but its worsening reputation in doing business is severely damaging to the future of the country’s energy industry. Tuesday, September 29, 2015 عربي Comments (+)
The future of the fledgling oil and gas sector in the Kurdish Region Government (KRG) is in jeopardy as it struggles with payment delays and ongoing international oil and gas companies’ arbitration cases against it. The KRG is risking losing its reputation for being more business friendly than its neighbors.

International investors and companies fled Kurdistan for several months after the Islamic State took Mosul in June 2014, and to overcome the financial impact of this the KRG turned to Baghdad to mend their differences over export rights to Kurdistan’s oil, hoping to generate more income. The KRG maintains that it has exclusive authority under Article 112 and Article 115 of the Iraqi Federal Constitution “to manage oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region extracted from fields that were not in production in 2005”—almost all the fields in production today. But according to Baghdad, the Iraqi state oil marketing organization (SOMO) is the only agency entitled to sell crude oil internationally. After six months of negotiations, Iraq’s 2015 Federal Budget Law holds the KRG to export a minimum of 250,000 barrels per day of crude oil through SOMO (though it remains unclear whether the KRG retains the right to export excess production). In return, the Iraqi government transfers 17 percent of the national budget to the KRG per month. In the past, this 17 percent accounted for roughly 95 percent of KRG revenue.

However, neither side has fully complied with the agreement. The KRG did not deliver the agreed amount of oil to SOMO between January and March—expecting to make up for the production later in the year but demanding full payment from Baghdad in advance. SOMO has also not been transparent regarding the total crude oil delivered and sold in Iraq, which varies per month and affects the KRG’s proportional monthly budget. In May 2015, for instance, the KRG received only 508 billion Iraqi dinars ($450 million), half the 17 percent Baghdad owed it. The same goes for other provinces: Baghdad owed an estimated $320 million to Kirkuk for January–May 2015 and $750 million for 2014, leading the Kirkuk Provincial Council to market its oil through the KRG instead. This led the KRG to resume selling most of its oil independently. In June, Kurdistan sold around 12 million barrels of oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, of which only 5 million was allocated to SOMO, a major blow to SOMO’s credibility and Iraq’s standing as a crude oil exporter.

While no relief is expected from the Baghdad, the war with the Islamic State and the continuing decline in global oil prices have added to the KRG’s financial burdens. The presence of more than 875,000 Iraqi internally displaced persons (IDPs) and another 240,000 Syrian refugees in the Kurdish provinces of Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaimaniya has increased local demand for power, water, education, food, and health services. In this precarious economic situation, Kurdistan needs more than Baghdad’s 17 percent to stay afloat. It needs more than $8 billion per year just to pay local salaries, to say nothing of the cost of war against the Islamic State, remuneration for oil and gas exploration activities, and public spending on development. Furthermore, the export pipeline to Ceyhan—the government’s only economic lifeline—is increasingly going offline due to sabotage by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

This shortfall has particularly impacted the KRG’s ability to pay oil companies for their share of production. Kurdish production sharing agreements have a standard royalty of 10 percent of the total oil produced and offer up to 40 percent of oil produced to some contractors for cost recover

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.506.182 von texas2 am 27.08.15 23:39:16

Gulf Keystone Petroleum's (GFKSY) CEO Jon Ferrier on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Aug. 27, 2015 7:24 PM ET | About: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. ADR (GFKSY)
Executives

Jon Ferrier – Chief Executive Officer

Andrew Simon – Chairman

Tony Peart – Legal and Commercial Director

Sami Zouari – Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Werner Riding – Peel Hunt

Al Stanton – RBC

James Hawley – Barclays

Robin Howarth – Stifel

Charlie Sharp – Canaccord

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (OTCQX:GFKSY) Q2 2015 Earnings Conference Call August 27, 2015 6:30 AM ET

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
So good morning and welcome, ladies and gentlemen to our Six Months Results Presentation. My name is Jon Ferrier. I'm the Chief Executive Officer of Gulf Keystone. Welcome to those of you who have come to the room here and to those watching via the webcast and also those listening in on the phone. I hope those of you watching or listening can hear me well enough.

I'll start off by introducing the colleagues who are with me today here. I'm joined – very happy to be joined by Andrew Simon, our Chairman, who's been in the role since Simon left earlier this year and a great support to me. Sami Zouari, Chief Financial Officer who joined the Company during this period that we're reporting on, back at the beginning of the year. And Tony Peart, our Legal and Commercial Director who's been here longer I think than anyone with the Company who's here today at least and knows all the stories.

But before I get into the presentation proper, on the business and the review of the six months, I'll invite Andrew Simon to stand up and say a few introductory remarks about the business or actually you can stay where you are, if you like, Andrew and over to you.

Andrew Simon - Chairman
Okay, thanks very much. As Jon said, I've taken over the Chairmanship since the beginning of April and just wanted to say a few words in order to give a degree of continuity to the business.

As I indicated in my Chairman's Statement, there are two issues affecting the Company, those which I call the externalities which are the oil price, the ongoing conflict around Kurdistan and Iraq and Syria and the difficulty of payments by the KRG.

Those are factors which we can unfortunately have little influence on although we are working very hard to develop our – improving and developing our relationship with the MNR and the KRG which I think Jon will talk about later on.

However, internally, the internalities we have done a lot. In the last five months, we have as you can see appointed a new Chief Executive who is based full time in the UK and obviously is spending a lot more time in Erbil than his predecessor.

We have made a lot of changes to the Board. We've lost four non-executive directors. It's really our intention to develop a much smaller Board, fit for purpose, people with good oil industry operational experience as well as substantial UK PLC experience. We currently have a shortlist of about 10 people whom we are beginning to engage with having also spoken to a number of others during the past two or three months. So that's – those are all the changes that we're making.

We've reduced the non-executive directors' salaries by 25% effective October 1 and have brought the whole corporate governance of the business much more into sort of mainstream UK PLC. So I think that's good progress as far as we are concerned.

And clearly in the meantime, as Jon will shortly demonstrate the oilfield is performing well. And the big issue is getting paid and getting paid a little bit more for the oil that we're producing.

So on that, I will hand back to you, Jon.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much, Andrew. The oil business is used to dealing with hazards. It just comes with the territory. So in terms of safety today, there are no planned fire drills as far as I know so if you’re hearing the alarm please use the exit here, just down there straight outside. Also just watch out when you walking around the room the cables on the floor, and if you’re over six foot you maybe to need to watch some other doors that you can not use silhouette otherwise anyway, that’s over.

Before I get into the detail of the business's performance, and just to remind you, I've been with the Company now, approaching three months. Not that long. But I'm pleased to report that the initial assertions I had that brought me into the business stand. Really delighted with the quality of the asset that we have in Shaikan and the satellite – potential satellites around it and the team. The team has done a terrific job to actually develop these assets and bring them on as low cost, safe producers where they are. So that's great.

But of course there are challenges and that's going to be central to much of the conversation or the presentation and the conversation we have today. But I would hope you get from this morning's presentation a clear sense that under the circumstances, the leadership team here is doing a great job to manage these uncertainties and challenges that we have in the region and that we all share a cautious optimism about the future.

When I came on – it's very useful when you join a new business and you know you're going to be extremely busy and there's a lot going on and it can be quite chaotic at times, just to lay out to yourself and your team what your priorities are. So if I go on to my priorities that I just laid out on day one and I still work with, they're fairly simple.

The first is that we have safe and reliable operations. It's pointless even talking about political risks and getting payments and so on, if underneath all of that you don't have a strong foundation for the business. And in our case, it's a reliable asset that's producing well where nobody gets hurt and the equipment isn't damaged. So this is really important to me.

This is our license to operate. It's an expectation of the Ministry. So although anyone might come to me and say what are you doing without payments and so on, my first priority as the CEO has to be the safety of the people and the assets in the business. And that's what I talk about whenever I meet my colleagues and any other stakeholder. So that's just normal oil business stuff.

The second of course though is the commercial sustainability of the business. So from day one, I've been working with Sami and Tony and others in the business to do everything we can to make sure that we get paid in these rather extraordinary times. And that is a challenge, it's an everyday challenge. We've got to get regular payments coming in and we've got to be paid for the oil that we produce. And in response to that we've developed a strategy which Tony will talk to you about later this morning.

It's a very complicated world in which we live as well, not least with the geopolitics we enjoy in the region, but everything is connected. So you really have to put a lot of time into understanding the stakeholder landscape in which you work and making sure you understand it and engage with it properly. So there's a huge effort going on particularly directed within country with our stakeholders in the KRG, especially with the Ministry, with Dr. Ashti for example. He's my number one stakeholder if you like because they basically own the assets out there. We're just contractors.

But I also talk to the other IOCs. It's very important for me to connect with the CEOs and the country managers of the other international companies in country, the contractors who work for us, the local villagers, the local village chiefs. These are all very important to me.

And not least apart from all of those is the shareholders. And I hope you've noticed since I've joined, we've taken a different, more open approach to engagement with shareholders, large or small and anyone else who has a stake in the business. This is very important to me that we get this right and a lot of my effort goes into this area and also my team's.

And as a sort of a fourth priority for me really but this is well underway with Andrew's help is that we get the old governance stories, the stuff that used to make headlines well behind us. That I want to have a strong leadership team, I'll talk about that a bit more in a moment, supported by an effective Board. And all of that aligned with shareholders. So this is the simple priorities. I remind myself of them every week. Every time I have a town hall with the staff I rattle these things out and I think it's helpful to people in the business to know where we're going and what's important, so you don't get distracted by peripheral stuff.

So let's think about the context within which we operate. This is just a few headlines from the last few months. It has been one out of the six months for this business. If it's not the oil price collapsing to historical lows, which is just something we have to live with, we can't do anything about that other than respond through our cost base. There's political uncertainty in Kurdistan. There's a fight going on right now for the presidency. Barzani wasn't confirmed as the – his extension of his presidency was not confirmed last Wednesday.

Global economics played a role in oil price. Political – geopolitical dynamics, the whole tensions between Baghdad and Erbil. ISIS fighting 30 kilometers away or not fighting but being based 30 kilometers away from where we're working is a reality, a daily reality for our people on the ground. PKK camps, 20 kilometers to the north of us.

This is just stuff that we have to be aware of, on top of. We use, put a lot of effort into this. We have the right intelligence. We share information with the right parties so we can be proactive in these areas and if we have to react, we react very quickly and safely.

So that's the kind of context within which we work. These are – I've been in the oil industry 30 plus years, these are really quite extraordinary times, so not easy. Despite all that though, we have enjoyed highlights in the business and I get really thrilled by the little victories we have. So just laying some of these out.

Despite some of the challenges in the area, our own safety performance has been excellent. It can be better and I continue to work with the people to improve our LTI statistics and so on. But nothing major.

And the security situation around us remains stable. If you go to the field and I was out there with Mary a couple of weeks ago, it feels quite safe. Everything is under control. We haven't lost an hour of operations over the last six months to any of these issues, well-publicized issues in the area. I think we're the only international operator who can boast that.

In terms of production, we've produced nearly 5 million barrels in the first half of this year, 100% increase over the same period last year and Shaikan has now produced 14 million barrels. Daily production, I looked at the report this morning, is in excess of 40,000 barrels a day. It's 43,790 this morning. So this is what the field can do. It's performing very nicely and predictably.

And importantly, we're sticking with our production guidance for the year that we gave at the AGM. And that's a nice thing as a person running an oil business to be able to say. Tony is going to talk about more – talk more about the whole sales issue. But we've had to adapt to the conditions. We're basically operating outside of the production sharing contract. We've had to diversify our approach, but there are essentially there are two strands to it, both related to export, but slightly different routes and Tony will explain.

And we are getting paid from the domestic exporter. We in July started injecting oil into the pipeline which is an export pipeline up to Ceyhan. We are in discussions with the Ministry about the payment mechanism for that. But on your seats you will see an announcement that came out from the MNR today which supports very much the announcement they had on August 3 about their commitment to pay the exporting company, three exporting companies, ourselves, DNO and Genel and we see this as a terrific development. It's very positive to me that they've put out two statements this month that confirm the kind of discussions that we have privately with the Minister about what we can expect September and onwards. So today's announcement that the three companies will be sharing between – what was it – $75 million and $100 million is very good news for us. That's just what we wanted to see. So I'm encouraged by that and that was what was informing my cautious optimism that I mentioned earlier.

But it hasn't happened yet, so we've been very careful with our finances. We're pared back to the bone. No discretionary capital going out and there's a hiring freeze in the Company as well. So we're doing the bare minimum expenditure on safe and reliable operations, essentially is what we've got going here. There's good spend and bad spend and we have to spend some money, but it's directed at making sure the operations are safe and reliable. Sami is going to go into details of this, but we've got just under $64 million in the bank right now.

On the corporate side, Andrew has already mentioned this, this morning. The Board is in the process of being built or rebuilt. We have engaged a professional headhunter. We're down to a shortlist of candidates and over the next few weeks I will be interviewing along with the team at GKP, these candidates to see whether they're the right kind of people to bring on to the Board to give it the correct profile and skills that it needs.

And it was in the paper a few days ago, I can't remember exactly that we've just appointed a Chief Strategy Officer, Nadhim Zahawi, who's a Conservative MP. He works for me. He's part of the leadership team. If he wasn't traveling today he'd up here sitting at the table with us. He's working part time because he obviously has other duties.

But this is a guy who not only has a – he's got a Kurdish background and he knows the region incredibly well and can support us in helping us navigate the geopolitical complexities of a region like that, but he's also a very smart businessman as well. He's got a great commercial mind and we've already had brainstorming sessions with him in the office. The chemistry is great and I know that he's going to bring real value to the Company in helping us get the most out of our position in Kurdistan.

So these are some of the highlights for me over the last six months and in my time in the Company as well. So I'd like to talk specifically now about production. We haven't got our Head of Production here today so I'll try and go through some of this stuff and hopefully be able to answer any questions on this later.

But this graph here shows the production evolution since day one of us starting production back in 2012. Where the heavy blue line starts here, this is the beginning of the first commercial production back in mid-July two years ago. And you can see a steady ramp-up from PF-1 or production facility one – I'll show you a picture of that in a moment – and then a growth of production from PF-2 as well. And the plateau which was in the first quarter of this year is when we shut down for approximately four weeks.

So terrific rise in production as I say up to levels today. We had a production record earlier this month of just over 45,000 barrels a day from the two – from the combined facilities. So a great result.

In numbers, the 40,000 sort of nameplate capacity was reached last December. There's that production record on August 16.

This is an important number here, the – as you can appreciate we're working in a tricky area. Export, we are at the subject of the export mechanism which is either trucks. 250, 300 trucks a day turn up to be loaded from the facilities, drive up north across into Turkey and then into the seaport of Dortyol. If the trucks can't get back across the border because there's some dispute or disagreement, that can slow things down. If the pipeline is closed because there's a power cut related to a Turkish air attack, that's the sort of stuff we're sensitive to.

So it's very important to know that when we have these ups and downs in our production it's nothing to do with our asset or the reservoir. This is the externalities that Andrew was talking about. So our plant availability is around 98% for this year which is a terrific number. And we can compare that to a typical North Sea facility at the moment, it's more than double what you'd expect to see in the North Sea right now in terms of plant availability. Very proud of that. So we're running a tight ship here and it works very well.

As I said we can maintain the production guidance for the second half of 2015 in the range of 36,000 to 40,000. Overall 2015, again in the range of 30,000 to 34,000 and these are the numbers. The range is because we're putting a sensible range in there that is contingent on off-taker ability and capacity. So those are the headlines.

Let's just have a look at it, remind you where we are. This is just in the sort of beginnings of the Zagros Foldbelt. The mountains are about three hours drive north of Erbil. This was an early picture of the production facility number one when they were doing the extended well testing. There's a flare there. There's a tank there that holds 25,000 barrels of oil in storage and this has now been developed.

And we can have a look at the next picture and it looks like that now. It's a very smart, modern, fairly straightforward simple plant. With low operating costs, fit for purpose, not much redundancy built into it, but it's working very well. And the beauty of it is its simplicity.

So I was out there a couple of weeks ago with Mary, on my first visit to the actual field operations, although I've been to Kurdistan many times and I was really impressed by what I saw. It works beautifully. There's a good atmosphere there in the team. A good dynamic between the few expats that we have and the largely local staff, getting on very well, all working as one team.

But my frustration was as a geologist and as a business developer, when you see the potential of a large field like this – I'm not going to go into the solid numbers now, I don't have them on the top of my head, but 10 billion or whatever in place is a huge volume that we can exploit here. And I was just really frustrated that we can't get after this, invest more and grow the production to the plan at the moment because we're simply not getting paid. We are watching our costs very carefully and we haven't given up on the future at all. We are doing work to realize the future potential, but we're being careful what we spend.

So what's happening right now? We have an FDP underway for Shaikan to take it to the 70,000 and then 100,000 barrels which is what Dr. Ashti expects us to do in country. And we're also doing important FEED work on a central processing facility because at the moment it's fairly vanilla what we have out there. Ultimately, we want to have full water gas handling and move away from trucking and pipe everything for export. That gives you the best netbacks, it's safest, and it’s a much better kind of operation. That's what I want to see. So we're certainly ready to take it to a 100,000 once the money starts coming in.

Talked all about Shaikan so far, but there are other assets as well and a really exciting development for me is the satellite, potential satellite in Sheikh Adi. I haven't got all the details on this here but we're working on a field development plan. This is a very easy field to develop. It lies just to the west of Shaikan, the same kind of field, it would be very familiar. It's not difficult territory. A very easy bolt-on to our business once the money starts coming in.

And on that, it's great that we're producing, it's great that we can get up to 45,000 barrels a day, but none of that makes any sense if we're not getting paid. We've got a great asset. It's performing at or above expectations. We've got great plans. As you saw, the FDP, the FEED work and so on, that's all very encouraging. But we've got to get paid. So Tony is going to go on to this, but whenever I see the Minister, I talk to him about payments. When are they going to pay us? How regular are these going to be? What date are we going to get the money? And that's my dialogue.

I've seen Dr. Ashti three times now since I've joined the Company which is possibly three times more than most oil companies have tried to get to see him. We do enjoy a good relationship with him and he is entirely understanding of our situation. And they've been quite supportive too about creative approaches to the marketing and oil sales that we do.

So with that, I think we've got to the point where you need to hear more about this story in detail. So I'll hand over to Tony, our Legal and Commercial Director, who'll give you some color on this.

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Good morning. As Jon has indicated, we've agreed with the MNR a diversified marketing strategy. Now what does that mean? It's a strategy whereby we have some flexibility should one of the routes go down and also allows that we will receive sales revenues. You've probably seen this map before, but this is an indication of where Shaikan is and the different routes.

The red dotted line is the truck transportation route, which runs to Dortyol on the Turkish Mediterranean coast. The green line is the Kurdistan Export Line, which links with the international pipeline. I called it the Kurdistan Export Line is actually the original Kirkuk Export Pipeline. The trucking distance from Shaikan to Dortyol is about 800 kilometers.

So the two routes that we have currently are the route by way we sell to a domestic offtaker who trucks the oil from Shaikan to Dortyol. This is reliable and well-known company in Kurdistan with whom we've been doing business for a number of years and currently they are delivering about 24,000 barrels a day to Dortyol.

The second route is the injection of oil into the international pipeline at Fyshkhabour where we're currently doing 20,000 barrels a day. This is whereby we truck the oil to Fyshkhabour, go to the next slide, which is shown in detail on this map. Fyshkhabour is on the border with Turkey. We have an agreement with DNO whereby we – whereby they handle the trucked-in crude and it is then injected into the pipeline.

Now this is a very exciting development for us because Shaikan oil rather than being sold as a direct Shaikan crude by the truck route is actually sold as the international Kirkuk blend together with Taq Taq and Komala and Tawke. As you know, Kirkuk blend is traded internationally. Currently, it's about $5 below Brent.

I can't give you any detail as to what the exact netback is but you should assume that there will be a discount for the Kirkuk blend as I've mentioned. There's obviously the pipeline tariff through the international pipeline. There are other through-putting and trucking costs associated with that. What I can tell you however, it is going to be a substantially better netback than that on the domestic offtaker Dortyol route.

As Jon has mentioned, payments have been announced by the Minister, a very exciting development, the news today that he has confirmed that the international oil companies will be sharing between $75 million and $100 million, which is very good news indeed. Further details on the actual pricing mechanism, the payment mechanism are still to be clarified. In terms of the current capacity in the international pipeline, that is going to be around 700,000. We expect during the course of this year, during 2016 we expect that to be upgraded to about 1 million barrels a day.

To give you some further detail on our domestic offtaker, so under the new contract which commenced in May, we've sold about 2.1 million barrels to date. I can give you some detail on the netbacks from this route. We use an average dated monthly Brent price less a Shaikan direct quality discount of $23 a barrel and less a transportation cost, obviously the cost of trucking to Dortyol, which is about $14.5 a barrel.

Obviously at these sort of prices, at current oil prices, this is a very, very difficult netback, but that is the situation that we have today. Payments received under this domestic offtaker contract totaled $15.4 million net to the Company and as I've mentioned these deliveries are going to Dortyol for export, so we have two export routes. In terms of the cash receipts, they are split 50% to the contractor and 50% to the MNR, an attempt to mirror the PSC terms.

And lastly, to show you what the destination of our crude would be, if you look at this graph, the dark shade of blue are all the sales by truck to Dortyol, starting from first commercial production in July 2013 and the lighter blue is the contract with our domestic offtaker. You'll see they started off early in 2013. Those are essentially sales into domestic market. But recently as you can see from 2015 they have been selling to export at Dortyol. And lastly, the grey area in the corner are the sales into the international pipeline. To give you some idea of numbers, the actual sales of oil via the Dortyol route totaled close to 12 million barrels, which is quite significant and about 0.5 million barrels have now gone into the pipeline at Fyshkhabour.

And now, I'd like to turn it over to Sami.

Sami Zouari - Chief Financial Officer
Some of you might know me. I've been with the Company for now almost seven months, so that's quite a newcomer. And I'm very happy to present to you the – this first half year and let's go over some of the highlights and figures. So cash position, as mentioned by Jon, about $64 million, not too far away from the previous cash position that we disclosed at our AGM. And this cash position was sustained thanks to the local sales, mentioned by Tony. So these local sales have been very much appreciated.

Revenues of $30 million for first half, in relation to both local sales, but also exports. Loss after tax of $78 million, indeed going up due to increasing operating costs that related to our continuous ramping up, up to 40,000 barrels per day, to which you have to add some G&A and of course the finance costs. Total arrears net to Gulf Keystone, $283 million, going slightly up compared to what we disclosed previously at the AGM. And this is normal that we are accumulating further arrears. So this is – we'll go through the details of these arrears later on, on a specific slide.

The investments, first half, about $29 million, most of which are devoted to – allocated to Shaikan, but also drastically reduced compared to H1 2014, about minus 65% reduction and rightfully so, considering that all further investments or at least significant investments are subject to future repayments. The last two bullet points, I'm pretty sure that most of you are quite familiar with these guys. We're mentioning them because they were quite important milestones for the Company.

First of all, the small placing of 86 million shares, leading to about $41 million, so the purpose of this equity line was to act as a bridge between March and now or between March and future repayments. And we're happy to say that this equity line, however small, fulfilled its purpose by allowing the Company to pursue its operations. And today, the MNR confirms these upcoming payments in September.

The book-to-equity ratio, again, something that we have announced repeatedly through RNSs, but also at our AGM, whereby we removed the restrictive condition preventing us from raising equity and we did so successfully by talking with our bondholders on the guaranteed note. So some – here's some figures showing the evolution of revenues. Nothing much to say on that size – on that side; again, 2015 is a split between local sales and export revenues. And on the export side, what is included in this value is the payment from the MNR in February 2015 of $26 million gross, meaning $20.8 million to the Company, the remainder being made of cash receipts in relation to local sales.

Gross profits, or rather losses, again these losses are due to increasing operating cost, G&A and finance costs, and the evolution of our cash position. And hopefully so, we expect that this cash position will be upgraded in the coming weeks and months, allowing us to pursue our operations. So, here a slide on CapEx spend. Again, so a drastic reduction compared to last year. And this shows you the allocation of our capital expenditures, most of which is allocated to Shaikan. H1 2015, $22 million, forecast by the end of the year, another $15 million.

And for Shaikan, it is in relation mostly for the first half of the year, mostly allocated to tie-in wells and the completion of the Shaikan-11 well, in addition to some debottlenecking work, allowing us to ramp up our production from 40 to 45, so adding another 10% of production capacity. Sheikh Adi, also some front end engineering work, which comes to a cost, although minor. Ber Bahr, as well some studies. And on Akri-Bijeel, these CapEx have been reduced to zero, so to nil.

The next slide, so I was very keen to show this slide – it's a new slide actually to remind, here, everyone of the commitment of this Company of achieving the development of Shaikan. So that shows you only the CapEx amount in order to achieve 40,000 barrels per day. If you look at the figures and the evolution of this CapEx, we have – sorry, not CapEx only. This is the other expenditures, so CapEx, OpEx and G&A. Nevertheless, most of which is recoverable. The bullet point below, $874 million of total expenses on a project basis, so 100% basis, of which we have $845 million that is estimated to be cost recoverable.

So indeed, again, to remind everyone of the Company's achievement with respect to Shaikan. Hopefully, once we come to a settlement of the arrears and the repayments are resumed – and we're going through a normalization of the business environment in Kurdistan – we can resume our investment on Shaikan, as mentioned by Jon, in order to achieve the 75,000 – or 70,000 and then 100,000 barrel-per-day mark.

So the arrears, the allocation remains the same, more or less, compared to what we showed you before. The figures have slightly increased. So we have $170 million of past oil sales due to the Company. We always say subject to audit because this is what we have in our books, but also subject to recognition from the MNR. And we're no different from our peers with respect to these pending audits. So it is going to be subject to some discussions at a later stage. And so the first chunk is unrecognized revenues. Second chunk is in relation to the working interest of 35%, which is itself made of 15% of third-party interest, and also 20% in relation to the government backing right. So we've been carrying this working interest since the beginning of the project.

Next slide, so just an evolution of our cash receipt. This is not for the first half of the year. This is year-to-date. I just wanted to show that payments are ongoing beyond end of June, and we have accumulated in addition to the $20.8 million,which are related to exports. And if you connect the dots, these are related to the $26 million that we received from the MNR in February and the $17.5 million of local sales. Just to demonstrate that, local sales, indeed as even though netbacks are not as great as the Fyshkhabour routes, they do represent indeed a strong cash cushion for this Company. And we have accumulated $17.5 million net to Gulf Keystone to this day.

Well, again, on – I would like to finish on a positive note, so we are very happy that the MNR has confirmed what we have been discussing with them all along. So it is in line with our expectations. We are always very happy that it’s confirmed officially to the public, expecting not only payments in September and a fair amount allocated to Gulf Keystone, but also, indeed, another payment in October, regular payments, because what the market is expecting of course is not only getting payments, but it’s also predictability and steadiness of these payments.

So we’re counting on that. And once we have – I believe IOC have had a few payments, say, by the end of the year, two or three. I think it will unlock new opportunities for all these companies.

On the M&A side of things, we have announced an M&A process. It’s still ongoing, although it’s been a bit challenging due to the political risk translating in non-payments in Kurdistan. And once these payments are resumed, we do believe that there’s going to be an acceleration of the M&A activity potentially for Gulf Keystone, but also all our peers. But it will I think also open up new access or renewed access to capital market, which is quite limited today, especially, well, in the oil and gas sector in general due to the macroeconomics, but specifically in Iraq and more specifically in Kurdistan due to the political risk component.

So we are quite optimistic. What should I use as an expression, Jon, cautiously optimistic?

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Cautiously optimistic.

Sami Zouari - Chief Financial Officer
As a management team. So thank you very much.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Sami. I’ll just give a couple of closing remarks, just to take care of what my outlook is or the business’s outlook for the rest of the year. Of course, as I keep saying, safe and reliable operations, number one. We’ve got to keep the whole plant ticking over nicely and producing the oil.

But again, it’s getting payments. It’s very encouraging to see what was announced today. And also, if you look at the language of the statement, the ministry themselves use the words like regular and predictable. They know what we need, so it’s great to see that.

But we’ll do everything we can. We’re not giving up our meetings, our continual pestering of the ministry and Dr. Ashti and so on to make sure this comes through and we can keep the business going.

In 2016, hopefully we’ll be having a different discussion with them too about the arrears. As Sami’s just said, we’ve got over $0.25 billion in arrears that’s due to come to us. They’ve indicated that this is up for discussion and for payment in 2016. We’re going to make sure that we’re ready for that discussion too.

Strategic review process, okay, that’s code for an announcement that was made back in February this year. It’s the M&A. We’ve had a data room open since then. It’s still open. We’re in active dialogue with companies still who are interested. So despite a globally challenging M&A market where companies really can’t get together in terms of price decks [ph] and expectations and so on, and also the challenges in the region with payments and ISIS and so on, we’ve nevertheless been able to attract some very serious, credible names to the data room and we’re still in dialogue with them. We’ll keep you posted on that one. I can’t say any more about that.

Anything else? Yes. We’ve got plans. We want to take this asset forward. We know we can get it to 70,000 to 100,000. We’re doing all the technical work, the manpower-related work on that so that we’re ready to push the button when we can, when the money starts coming in, and we’ll realize full potential from the assets.

So this slide, which is a picture of production facility one, it’s not a sunset, it’s a sunrise. Remember that, it’s all optimism, new day ahead.

So I’m, as I said, very pleased to be here. The business is what I expected it to be. We’ve got challenges, but I’m confident in the team, the Board, the way the Board’s going to develop, and our new hire, Nadhim, that we’ve got the right team to help us navigate the complexities that we face here and unlock the potential from these assets and from the business as a whole.

So that was really all I had to say in terms of the presentation. I believe we’re now going to go into the fun part, which is the Q&A. We’ll do it in two stages I believe. We’re going to take questions first from the room and then we’ll take questions from the people who are the phone. Is that right?

And if when we’re doing this – and I’ll try and moderate – you just give your name and your company affiliation just so that everyone else knows where the question is coming from. And there’s a microphone. I think Max has got a microphone here roping around, so please do try and use the microphone otherwise it won’t be heard by everyone else. That’s it I think. Ready to go.

And I think I may just come down and join you there. I just need to go and get my notes. I’m not running away, honestly.

Question-and-Answer Session

Q - Werner Riding
Hi it’s Werner Riding from Peel Hunt. Just a quick question related to production. And it’s, without further investments, how long will your existing well stock be able to maintain production at current levels?

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
I don’t have John Stafford with me here, so I’m not entirely sure of the answer. But any oil field is a declining asset and will in time decline. But I’m – at the moment it’s producing very happily at 45,000 or so a day and we’re seeing no signs of any depletion/drawdown, whatever. So I don’t know the exact answer, but I would only be guessing.

Al Stanton - RBC
It’s Al Stanton at RBC. You’re concerned currently about getting paid, but back of the envelope, you’ve nothing to get paid. Current oil prices, with the $23 discount and $15 knocked off for transportation and OpEx of $6.50 leaves you, effectively, with zero. Now, how can you attack those numbers? Do you expect the discount to disappear when you put the crude in or will somebody who produces a lighter oil, let’s say Taq Taq, be a little bit upset that they should be getting a better price when you should be getting a discount? And then in time I can see the OpEx would come down with volumes, but how quickly can you attack the numbers?

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
If I just give a brief introduction and then I’ll hand over to Tony on this one. One is that, as I said at the beginning, we’re operating outside of the PSC proper at the moment, so it’s an extraordinary arrangement that we’ve got going anyway. And you can’t strictly relate oil that we’re producing with the monies that are coming in. The government also owe us as I said, over $0.25b in arrears. So this is what – the government acknowledge that they’re in this situation with us and that we need money to keep going.

Otherwise, I’ll ask Tony to address your question specifically.

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Sure. On the Dortyol route, it is true we’ve got significant trucking costs. Those costs have actually come down from the last year we were tracking, during the $100 year in 2014, when I think we reported them around $23 for the trucking. So there’s a reduction to $14.5. It’s quite difficult to squeeze that down, but it’s possible that we can do something. But it won’t be very significant because we know what the costs are to truck.

On the quality discount for Shaikan, we are selling it as direct crude. It’s heavy oil, with all the qualities that we know. So there will be a discount on the market. And whilst there’s been wide acceptance of the crude on the market, again, it’d be quite difficult to attack that discount. But over time, perhaps it will go – clearly, as I’ve mentioned to you, the better route to go is through the pipeline.

You’ve mentioned that the other producers may have a problem with heavy oil going into their lighter oil stream. This is very typical in international pipelines, and we’re talking about quality banking systems. That doesn’t exist at the moment, but we are sure that in time that’ll prevail or there will be some kind of ad-hoc arrangement whilst we’re through-putting at the moment. We don’t know what that number will be, but we must assume that there will be some element of a discount for the Shaikan element.

What I can tell you for sure is that so far, since July, it’s working very well. There have been no operational issues with regard to the injection of Shaikan into the crude stream. It’s – we’ve done our studies. We don’t believe there will be significant deterioration in the Kirkuk blend that is sold at Ceyhan. And whether that applies to the API or indeed to the sulfur [ph] or other components of the oil that is sold, we’ll have to watch that over time. But certainly at the moment, nobody’s screaming and complaining to us that Shaikan is causing this pipeline to stop exporting.

Al Stanton - RBC
Just one second question. I’ll let somebody else ask about working capital. But in terms of things that you expected [indiscernible] when you arrived, you unfortunately did mention the word stow-up [ph], which I have a bit of a problem with. But what about reserves? When you opened the door and looked in the box, how comfortable are you with the Shaikan reserve numbers?

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
I’m getting there. It’s been a long time since we had an independent look at the Company’s reserves. The last CPR was, I think, the beginning of last year or so, over 18 months ago. So I was certainly interested in the quality of the foundation of the Company, if you like the asset.

And given that we’ve produced 10 million barrels since then, well, a year and a half of production history, it seemed to me decent – good business practice to commission a CPR, which is mentioned in today’s report. That’s underway. We hopefully will be able to be out with the news on that in two to three weeks from now.

So that was my step towards making sure that the foundation of the business was solid, and I have nothing to believe otherwise at the moment. Those were the reasons I joined the Company, was the asset and the people. Thanks, Al.

James Hawley - Barclays
Hi. It’s James Hawley from Barclays. Just a question on the Akri-Bijeel liabilities you mention. So if we take it that you’re effectively looking for an orderly exit of the asset, what is the likelihood of your confidence that you’ll be able to walk away from that without paying any of the $28 million that’s mentioned in – I think you’re in dispute with MOL.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Tony’s my Akri-Bijeel expert, so I’ll hand over to you.

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Look, we’ve mentioned to the market that we wish to exit this project. Our operator, our partner is well aware of that. This is a matter of how we resolve that with our operator and with our partner. It is still our intention to exit this project at some point. The M&A has been difficult, has been mentioned by my colleagues. But we’re still continuing that process.

James Hawley - Barclays
And in terms of you likelihood you won’t have to pay any of that money?

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
I’m sorry?

James Hawley - Barclays
Will you have to pay any of that $28 million?

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
We don’t believe so.

James Hawley - Barclays
Thank you.

Robin Howarth - Stifel
It’s Robin Howarth from Stifel. Just a question relating to the PSC. You said that you’re operating outside the framework of the PSC at the moment. Is there any formula to derive the payments amount in the split or is it a much more ad-hoc basis than that at the moment, relating to the payment that was announced this morning?

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Tony, again, do you want to do?

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Yes. Look, it’s been difficult. And I think what you can see is that there’s this ad-hoc mechanism for splitting it, but there will have to be a reconciliation at some point and there’s going to have to be a true-up of these numbers at some point. So we are carrying these costs currently. I think we also report that there is a slight difference, small over-lift. But all of that will be – have to be thrown into the pot at some point when we have this great show.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
We’re in the same position as the other exporters, exactly the same position, with the same kind of challenges and reconciliation coming up, and magnitudes.

Sami Zouari - Chief Financial Officer
So just to be very precise on that, our assessment and calculations with respect to arrears and due revenues are of course done as per the PSC recovery mechanism. And what Jon meant is that these side agreements whereby, for example, on the local sales, whereby we allocate fifty-fifty to the Company and to the MNR, is outside of the PSC terms and hence the necessity of going for a reconciliation at a later stage.

Again, no different from our peers. There’s going to be some work to be done at a later stage with the MNR, but we feel confident that whatever we present to the public with respect to our arrears and our calculation, we’re fairly confident that we are announcing something that is very close to the reality, which is itself in line with the PSC.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Do you have a question online or on the phone?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Charlie Sharp from Canaccord. Please go ahead with your question.

Charlie Sharp - Canaccord
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. If I may, could I re-ask the question which Al Stanton asked? Unfortunately, Tony’s answer sounded as though it was coming from the far side of Pluto on the telephone line. So apologies that I didn’t get the answer properly, because I just wanted to be clear about the Shaikan quality discount for the transportation cost going forward. Did you expect those to be maintained at $23 and $14.5 a barrel flat, regardless of the oil price, or do you see some shrinkage in those discount costs in this much lower oil price environment in the second half compared to the first half?

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
I’ll come closer to the phone, Charlie. Look, we have a contract with our offtaker which specifies these discounts for quality and for transportation. Obviously at these low oil prices we have been in a constant dialogue with them to see if we can improve that. We know what these transportation costs are. And so there’s – there is perhaps some room to maneuver, but not material given that last year we were paying something like $23 to truck to Dortyol. So they have come down.

On the quality side, there has been wide acceptance of Shaikan on the market. So we have a view as to what the quality discount should be for 17 API crude like Shaikan. Again, there is some room to perhaps negotiate, and hopefully that discount may improve. But it’s – for the time being we think it’s going to be around that sort of figure. Does that answer your question?

Charlie Sharp - Canaccord
Yes. That’s great. Thank you. And could you just also quickly remind me, I think you made a payment, similar to the one that they’re planning to make in September, towards the backend of last year. Can you remember what the split was between the Company, what percentage you had of that payment?

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Yes. I remember it well. It was the payment that was made on December 1, $75 million. We received $15 million and Genel and DNO received $30 million each.

Charlie Sharp - Canaccord
That’s great. Thank you.

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Okay.

Operator

Thank you. We currently have no further questions in the queue. [Operator Instructions]

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Or any questions from the room here.

Operator

And we have no further questions coming through at this time from the telephone line, so I’ll hand back to you.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Well, thank you very much.

Tony Peart - Legal and Commercial Director
Thank you.

Jon Ferrier - Chief Executive Officer
It’s been nice to meet you all. See you again sometime. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

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[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.506.128 von texas2 am 27.08.15 23:22:10

Losses widen at Gulf Keystone
By Harriet Mann | Thu, 27th August 2015 - 11:33
Losses widen at Gulf KeystoneGulf Keystone (GKP) has made progress over the last six months, but if regular payments for its crude sales have still not been secured before its next bond payment in October, the troubled explorer could be at the mercy of its bondholders to see it through the next year.
Gulf ratcheted up losses of $77.7 million (£50.2 million) after tax in the six months to 30 June - more-than double the losses generated in the first half of 2014, but a fraction of 2014's $248.2 million total. The producer generated $30.1 million revenue in the first six months, up 61% on the year and close to 2014's total sales of $38.6 million. Including un-booked sales of $117 million, total arrears net to Gulf stood at $283 million at the end of June, which it hopes to start getting back from early 2016.

"We are confident that our host government will be able to deliver on their recent pledge to establish a regular payment cycle for our crude from next month, and will start addressing the amount owed in arrears from 2016," says chief executive Jón Ferrier.

"Combined with revenue from our domestic off-taker agreement, this will provide us with the necessary means to recommence investment into the field and progress toward further increasing production, and subsequently value, for all stakeholders," he says.

Even after a $40.7 million placing in March, Gulf's cash pile fell from $72.1 million in July to $63.9 million on 25 August, which includes the $32.5 million needed to meet debt obligations. If the group doesn't start receiving regular payments for its crude, reduce its arrears or sell any assets, it’s likely it will need more cash to fund its commitments for the next year. Net debt currently stands at $480 million.

"The directors consider that whilst a stable and reliable payment process for export sales is not yet fully established, a material uncertainty exists that casts significant doubt over the Group's ability to continue as a going concern and to realise its assets and discharge its liabilities in the normal course of business," the company warned.

Gulf doubled gross production from its Shaikan field in the six months to 30 June, pumping 4.7 million barrels of oil from the ground. After the exploration company hit a new daily production record of 45,000 barrels of oil (bopd) on 16 August, daily output is averaging 40,000 bopd. Bosses still reckon the company can ramp up second-half production to between 36,000 - 40,000 bopd, achieving its 30 - 34,000 bopd average target for the full-year. This should be increased to 100,000 bopd by the end of Phase 1.

Half of this oil is being delivered to the Turkish coast by truck, which has generated $19.3 million of cash receipts ($15.4 million net to Gulf) so far. The other half of Shaikan crude is being delivered to the export pipeline at the request of the Kurdistan Regional Government. Regular payments are expected from September after Kurdistan's Ministry of Natural Resources said it would start allocating a portion of the revenue from its direct crude oil sales to producing international oil companies.

Following an appraisal report for the Sheikh Adi field, Gulf has started its field development plan for the play, which it has an 80% working interest in.

"Gulf Keystone's future as a going concern is dependent on the receipt of regular payments from the KRG and the willingness of its bondholders to keep the company alive (as there are few obvious alternatives)," explains Westhouse Securities analyst Mark Henderson, who reckons the shares are worth 45p.

Gulf's shares bounced 12% to 30.25p on Thursday. Following the path oil prices have forged, Gulf's market value is two thirds lower than this time last year. Since June, Brent has lost over 30% of its value and was changing hands for just $44.67 a barrel on Thursday. This was up 3.6% on Wednesday, however.

"The Shaikan field is a world class asset and Gulf Keystone has other assets with similar potential (a reference to Sheikh Adi, on which appraisal work is planned), but the balance sheet needs to be repaired before the equity investment case becomes clearer, in our view. We retain our Neutral rating," says Henderson.

This article is for information and discussion purposes only and does not form a recommendation to invest or otherwise. The value of an investment may fall. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.361.102 von texas2 am 09.08.15 12:07:32

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media/92036/h1-results-2015-pres…

film und life präsentation gibt es dazu ebenfalls

nach wie vor auf enge Kante genäht, und es geht bis jetzt weiter ...

[texas2]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.324.016 von texas2 am 03.08.15 22:43:36

And some more of his thoughts regards potential recovery


The recovery factors from the CPR for Shaikan in Jurassic are guesswork at best. The problem is that guessing is the best anyone can do at this stage. Shaikan recoverable resurces is calculated on the basis of rather low recovery rates, especially from the matrix. But it is not only Shaikan, if you look at Atrush for instance, the recovery factor for the field as a whole is currently set well below 20%. Maybe somewhere between 17-20%, we don't have the latest STOIIP figures for Atrush in the public domain, they reinterpreted the 3D seismics last year which led to a few changes in the field.

High recovery from the fractures and low (if any) recovery from the matrix, that is the assessment in Shaikan and Atrush. Everyone is looking at the matrix and wondering whether it will produce. Will the oil leave the matrix before water invades the surrounding fractures? They simply don't know yet. Only production data can give the guidance. Shaikan might start to give some answers on the matrix soon and a new CPR can probably adjust the recovery factors from the matrix to some extent, hopefully to the better.

Tawke could maybe serve as some sort of a comforting guidance. It had an estimated recovery rate at about 18% in 2007, 4 years laters the numbers were changed to 37% and I believe that Tony Hayward now believe that the field might breach the 50% level in recovery in the future. Even though Tawke is some distance away from the fields in the Shaikan area, the story from Tawke clearly shows that recovery factors are just guesswork in the early development phases. The story in Barda Rash shows that things can go bad as well. The fact that no water cut has been seen in Shaikan yet is a very good sign, but we need to know whether any oil has left the matrix yet to start playing around with the recovery numbers. Remember that in the long term test of Simrit-2, next door to Shaikan, the well produced water from Mus/Adaiyah after only 40 days of oil production in spite of a 65 meter oil column.

It is still early days. Will the field recovery remain at today's low CPR numbers? Will it double? Triple? Or be cut in half? Hard to tell, but I believe the upside potential for the recovery factor is far greater than the downside risk. The current numbers for Shaikan are conservative, and so they should be with only very limited data at hand.

Then we have Cretaceous and Triassic as well, where there is even less data available.

Sorry for not giving you a number to hold on to. It is simply not possible.
Place your bet, I have placed mine on higher recovery factor in Shaikan in the future, but the wheel spins and the ball can land on any number.

iii