Gulf Keystone Irak-Ölperle Deutschland schläft (Seite 30)

[summer6]

Iraq-focused oil explorer Gulf Keystone Petroleum has revealed that under a worst case scenario by January 31st 2015 it may face a maximum shortfall in its working capital requirements of 103m dollars, after which date that amount is expected to decrease.

In parallel, and as previously disclosed, Deputy Chairman Lord Guthrie will step down and be replaced by Jeremy Asher.

Lord Guthrie will however continue in his role as Non-Executive Director.

That came as the company published its prospectus for listing its stock on the official list of the United Kingdom Listing Authority (UKLA).

“The Company is of the opinion that the Group does not have sufficient working capital for its present requirements, that is, for at least the next 12 months from the date of the Prospectus. The Company is of the opinion that the Group does not have sufficient working capital for its present requirements, that is, for at least the next 12 months from the date of the Prospectus,” Gulf Keystone said.

However, the firm is not aiming to raise any funds via that funding channel.

To take note of, in parallel the company is currently undertaking a series of fixed income investor meetings in the US, Europe and Asia with a debt offering of up to $250m.

The firm’s cash resources may be enhanced by several events during the next twelve months, Gulf Keystone said, including raising sales from Shaikan to 40,000 barrels a day or the sale of the Group's interest in the Akri-Bijeel Block.

If none of those favourable events occur then the company may require additional working capital by the end of May 2014.

Shares of Gulf Keystone Petroleum ended the day lower by 5.24% at 104p, after having fallen as low as 86p at one point in the session.

AB

Gruß
S6

[max232]

Gulf KeystoneShares Dented Ahead Of Move To Official List As CPR Numbers Underwhelm

http://oilbarrel.com/news/gulf-keystoneshares-dented-ahead-o…

[summer6]

Gulf Keystone slides after audit of its Iraq reserves
Analysts say figures below initial estimates, sending shares in oil group lower
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Gulf Keystone Petroleum, which hopes to move from Aim to the full list on 24 March, has come under pressure after a disappointing update on its Shaikan site in Iraq.

Its shares are currently down 18.5p at 125.5p, having earlier fallen as low as 102.5p, as a third party audit of the Kurdistan reserves showed total reserves of 9.38bn barrels of oil equivalent at Shaikan. This is lower than earlier estimates of 13.7bn barrels.

The report identifies 12.5bn barrels of gross oil across the company's whole portfolio in the region. In a neutral rating analyst Jamal Orazbayeva at Westhouse Securities said:

The main difference is the [volume of oil] for Shaikan of 9.38bn versus previous guidance of 13.7bn barrels.... the recovery factor is around 12% versus our assumption of 16%.

The numbers are likely to be on the lower end of expectations and have a negative effect on the share price today.
But Sam Wahab at Cantor Fitzgerald was positive:

Whilst the...report represents a conservative estimate based solely on reserves which are being targeted with 26 wells representing less than 25% of all wells currently envisaged for the Shaikan development, we adjust our valuation taking account of this area only. On this basis, we reiterate our buy recommendation but reduce our target price to 183p (from 235p).
Operationally Gulf Keystone also announced production of 10,000 barrels a day from the first Shaikan production facility, with a target of 40,000 barrels in 2014 with a second facility expected to begin production in the second quarter.

The company said:

In order to mover to the next stage of the Shaikan project execution, the company is making progress in its discussions on the near term debt financing options.


Gruß
S6

[summer6]

Gulf Keystone continues to maintain current stable production and sales from PF-1

Thursday, March 13, 2014
TagsIraqMiddle East AIMOperations UpdateProduction UpdateSeismic Spud Watch Well testing
Stable production operations and sales from PF-1 continued in January, February and March 2014 at the level of approximately 10,000 bopd (gross).
The Shaikan-7 deep exploration well is currently drilling 17 ½" hole below 2,600 metres in the upper Triassic.
The first well to appraise the Sheikh Adi discovery, which spudded in December 2013, is drilling below 2,240 metres in the Alan formation in the Jurassic.
The Ber Bahr-1 exploration well was successfully side-tracked in the first half of 2013 and tested 2,100 bopd of 15 degree API oil from the Jurassic Sargelu formation.
Gulf Keystone is pleased to provide an Operational and Corporate update. Separately, the Company is releasing today a third party audit of the Company's reserves, contingent resources and prospective resources for its petroleum interests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Summary

The Company continues to maintain current stable production and sales levels of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") from the Company's first Shaikan production facility ("PF-1") in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which is expected to increase in Q2 2014 as a result of the recently tied-in third production well, Shaikan-4, which is now flowing. The second Shaikan production facility ("PF-2") is being commissioned, with two wells (Shaikan-2 and Shaikan-5) already tied in and the first production from PF-2 expected in Q2 2014. The Company remains focused on achieving the target of 40,000 bopd of production capacity from PF-1 and PF-2 in 2014.

Since crude oil exports from the Shaikan field commenced in December 2013, in excess of 105,000 tonnes (690,000 barrels) of oil have been tendered and sold at international prices. The Company is expecting to receive payment, in line with the terms of the Shaikan Production Sharing Contract.

In order to move to the next stage of the Shaikan project execution, the Company is making progress in its discussions on the near term debt financing options.

Production and Development

Shaikan (75% working interest; Operator)

Stable production operations and sales from PF-1 continued in January, February and March 2014 at the level of approximately 10,000 bopd (gross). Total cumulative production from late 2010 to date from Shaikan has reached 2.1 million barrels. Since crude oil exports from the Shaikan field commenced in December 2013, three cargoes totalling in excess of 105,000 tonnes (690,000 barrels) of oil have been delivered from PF-1. The fourth cargo of approximately 33,000 tonnes (215,000 barrels) of Shaikan crude is expected to be delivered later in March 2014.

In addition to the presently producing Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3 wells, Shaikan-4 is now tied into PF-1, has started to flow and is expected to increase the current output in Q2 2014. An amine plant is currently being connected to PF-1, which will allow sweetening of some of the associated gas stream, which will be used as fuel for the PF-1 operations instead of diesel, representing savings of approximately US$400,000 per month to the project.

The Shaikan-2 and Shaikan-5 wells have now been tied into PF-2 and the production facility is currently being commissioned with first production, initially of approximately 10,000 bopd, expected in Q2 2014. The connection of Shaikan-10 to PF-2 will also be completed in Q2 2014, increasing PF-2 production capacity.

The Company is focused on achieving the target of 40,000 bopd of production capacity from PF-1 and PF-2 in 2014, which it intends to reach through:
Potential re-configuration of Shaikan-8, initially drilled as a gas injection well, into a fourth producer tied into PF-1
Tie in of the deep exploration well Shaikan-7, which is currently being drilled, to become the fifth producing well at PF-1
Productivity enhancement of the Shaikan-1 and Shaikan-3 wells through the replacement of the existing 3 ½" tubing by 4 ½" tubing
Plans to drill an additional production well in the proximity of Shaikan-10, which will also be connected to PF-2, and install four flowlines between the Shaikan-10 location and PF-2
The Company's focus is on the ramp-up of commercial production from the existing Shaikan facilities. The move to 40,000 bopd of production capacity will allow further expansion of export crude oil sales. The additional cash generated, in addition to the Company's near term debt financing options where the Company is making progress in its discussions, will facilitate the move to the next stage of the Shaikan project execution.

This next stage envisages a further 60,000 bopd of additional production capacity in order to reach the medium-term target of 100,000 bopd set for Phase 1 of the approved Shaikan Field Development Plan. This next stage will require construction of additional production facilities with gas injection and water handling capabilities, as well as the drilling of a substantial number of development and production wells.

Exploration & Appraisal

Shaikan (75% working interest; Operator)

The Shaikan-7 deep exploration well is currently drilling 17 ½" hole below 2,600 metres in the upper Triassic. Shaikan-7 will drill into the deep Triassic, after setting casing at the bottom of Kurre Chine B formation, and is then expected to penetrate the Permian with the first results expected in Q2 2014.

Sheikh Adi (80% working interest; Operator)

The first well to appraise the Sheikh Adi discovery, which spudded in December 2013, is drilling below 2,240 metres in the Alan formation in the Jurassic. A well testing programme to evaluate the potential of the Jurassic reservoirs in the Sheikh Adi footwall is currently being designed, before the well enters the Triassic.

Approximately 111 km of new 2D seismic data acquired in the north of the block during 2013, is being processed to evaluate potential new structures.

Ber Bahr (40% working interest)

The Ber Bahr-1 exploration well was successfully side-tracked in the first half of 2013 and tested 2,100 bopd of 15 degree API oil from the Jurassic Sargelu formation. A 3D seismic survey is underway, planned for completion by mid-year 2014. Ber Bahr-2, an appraisal well, is planned to spud in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Akri-Bijeel (20% working interest)

Further to the declaration of commerciality of the block by the operator in 2013, appraisal drilling continues and work is ongoing on the Field Development Plan for the Bijell and Bakrman discoveries, which is expected to be submitted to the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in Q2 2014 and approved later in 2014. The operator plans to complete four appraisal wells on the Bijell discovery and one appraisal well on the Bakrman discovery in 2014.

Bijell-1B has been side-tracked, completed as a producer in the Sargelu formation in the Jurassic and tied into the Bijell Extended Well Test facility ("EWT") where initial flow rates of 3,500 bopd of 23 degrees API oil have been recorded. The operator expects that production from the Bijell EWT facility will reach its full capacity of 10,000 bopd of export quality crude by the end of 2014.

Bijell-2, a deep appraisal well targeting the Triassic horizons of the Bijell discovery, is currently drilling 12 ¼" hole below 4,750 metres in the Kurre Chine Anhydrite formation.

Bijell-4, an appraisal well targeting the Jurassic horizons of the Bijell discovery, is drilling ahead below 2,800 metres in the Tanjero formation.

Move to the Main Market

As previously announced, the Company expects that its common shares will be admitted to the Standard Segment of the Official List of the United Kingdom Listing Authority (the "Official List") and commence trading on the London Stock Exchange plc's ("LSE") main market for listed securities effective at 8.00 a.m. on or after 24 March 2014 (the "Admission Date") (together the "Admission"), subject to the receipt of the necessary approvals from the UK Listing Authority and the LSE. Trading in the Company's common shares on the AIM market of the LSE ("AIM") will be cancelled simultaneously with the Admission. The Company will issue a prospectus in connection with the Admission prior to the Admission Date.

As part of the Company's move from AIM to the Official List, it is today publishing the Competent Person's Report on the petroleum interests of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd and its subsidiaries in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq ("CPR"), which has been completed by ERC Equipoise Ltd. This is the first third party evaluation of the Company's Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources for the Shaikan field and its other petroleum interests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Sheikh Adi, Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel blocks). It is available on the Company's website at http://www.gulfkeystone.com/investor-centre/presentations-an…

Todd Kozel, Gulf Keystone's Chief Executive Officer commented:

"Progress achieved since July 2013, when we commenced commercial production from Shaikan, demonstrates that Gulf Keystone is evolving from an oil and gas exploration company to a production company targeting production capacity of 40,000 barrels of oil per day in 2014. Another significant milestone in this journey is our forthcoming move from AIM to the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and we are another step closer to achieving this goal after publishing the Competent Person's Report today. We see significant upside to this important baseline third party estimate of reserves and contingent resources, which will be targeted through the implementation of the approved Shaikan Field Development Plan in the coming months and years."

Gruß
S6

[DJHLS]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.633.275 von al_sting am 14.03.14 19:20:15

Sehr richtig. Da ist Vorsicht angebracht. Sicher ist nur eins: der Markt wird wie immer übertreiben, bevor er den Boden findet. Ob wir jetzt schon bei einer fairen Bewertung sind, kann man schwerlich abschätzen.

Todd Kozel ist eine schwere Belastung für das Unternehmen und den Kurs. Eigentlich müßte er ohne Abfindung gehen oder zumindest sämtliche Performance-Boni der letzten Jahre zurückzahlen.

Auch nicht auszuschließen, dass hier eine Übernahme vorbereitet wird und das Gutachten dazu diente, den Kaufpreis für den Erwerber zu senken.

[al_sting]

Zitat von BalatonBomber: Die Zahlen sollte man bei GKP immer etwas nüchterner betrachten:

Aktuell haben sie bei Shaikan 2P reserves von 163 mmbbls und 2c resources von 434 mmbls. Das sind die harten Fakten.

Die oil in place Zahlen sind erstmal toll für den Werbeprospekt.
Hinzu kommt die Verschuldung und der Kapitalbedarf. Zusätzlich sind viel zu viele (private) Zoker mit an Bord.

Jetzt muss sich der Wert erstmal auskotzen. Danach sehen wir weiter.

Dazu kommen in meinen Augen noch ein paar weitere Probleme:
Gulf Keystone war in der Vergangenheit ein ziemlich extremer "Pump and Dump"-Wert. Das Management scheint sich daran beteiligt zu haben: http://brontecapital.blogspot.de/2013/04/gulf-keystone-share…
Todd Kozel ist immer noch im "Board of Directors: http://www.gulfkeystone.com/about-us/board-of-directors/todd…

Bei mir persönlich wäre nach solchen Erfahrungen das Vertrauen in das Management per se ziemlich niedrig. Es gibt nicht wenige "early explorer", gerade bei Gold oder Erdöl/Erdgas, wo die Ertragsperspektiven künstlich in die Höhe geschrieben wurden, um die Aktienpreise zu manipulieren - und später musste man große Abschreibungen nachreichen oder existierte gar nicht mehr.

Meines Erachtens muss Gulf Keystone erst einmal beweisen, dass (und wie hohe) Ölreserven auch wirklich förderbar sind und dass sie die prognostizierten Volumina wirklich fördern können.

Bei Genel und DNO läuft immerhin seit Jahren eine stetige Ölförderung, die Unternehmen liefern einen positiven Cashflow und finanzieren die Erforschung und Bohrungen (weitgehend) aus den laufenden Einnahmen. Das müssen Explorer wie Gulf Keystone, aber auch WesternZagros oder Shamaran, erst einmal erreichen. Und der Weg dahin könnte noch ziemlich steinig werden.

[Falke7]

m.E. ist das Entscheidende bei GKP im Moment das Erreichen der
täglichen Fördermenge von 40000bopd in 2014,sowie die Beilegung des
Konflikt KRG/Bagdad bez.Ölexport und Verteilung der Öleinnahmen.Ich
bin überzeugt,daß GKP die 40000bopd schaffen.Im Update vom 13.März 2014 kann ich zumindest nichts Negatives entdecken.
Daß Shaikan ein rießiges Ölfeld ist weiß ja mittlerweile ein jeder,und
vielleicht kommt ja noch was hinzu.
Die neue unabhängige Resouseneischätzung hat zwar weniger Barrels
ergeben,ist aber dafür verläßlich für zuküftige (auch größere)
Investoren.Auch gut für den Wechsel zum Main Market und für solche,
die an einer Übernahme interessiert sind (Übernahmegespräche werden im
Geheimen geführt!)

MfG Falke7

[BalatonBomber]

Die Zahlen sollte man bei GKP immer etwas nüchterner betrachten:

Aktuell haben sie bei Shaikan 2P reserves von 163 mmbbls und 2c resources von 434 mmbls. Das sind die harten Fakten.

Die oil in place Zahlen sind erstmal toll für den Werbeprospekt.
Hinzu kommt die Verschuldung und der Kapitalbedarf. Zusätzlich sind viel zu viele (private) Zoker mit an Bord.

Jetzt muss sich der Wert erstmal auskotzen. Danach sehen wir weiter.

[ck2012]

Unglaublich, wenn man nachfolgenden Zahlen sieht:

1. Nimmt man die aktualisierte Schätzung, dann werden die Reserven gemessen am (aktuellen) Unternehmenswert mit 0,15 Cent/Barrel bewertet.
2. Gulf Keystone kann mit der neuen Schätzung und einer Tagesproduktion bei 100.000 Barrel 250 Jahre produzieren.
3. Bei anteiligen Erlösen von 50% an dem Verkauf der 100.000 Barrel/Tag erzielt Gulf Keystone jährlich ca. 1,8 Mrd US$ bzw. 1,35 Mrd Euro Umsatz.

Und wie hoch ist der Börsenwert des Unternehmens heute? - 1,35 Mrd Euro!

So ist Börse halt - Zocken bis der Arzt kommt!

[summer6]

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) Ltd. fell the most in two years in London trading after the oil producer said its Kurdistan field is smaller than previously estimated.
Total oil in place at the Shaikan field is estimated at 9.2 billion barrels, the company said after commissioning a so-called competent persons report from ERC Equipoise Ltd. That compares with an earlier estimate of 13.7 billion barrels.
Shares plummeted as much as 29 percent in London to 102.5 pence, the biggest drop since March 2012, and traded at 127.5 pence at 10:33 a.m. local time.
“The market is disappointed at the revised oil-in-place figure for Shaikan, which is 30 percent lower than the previous estimate,” said Charlie Sharp, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity Securities Ltd. in London. “The reserves and resources numbers are also substantially lower.”
Gulf Keystone is targeting production from the Shaikan field of 100,000 barrels of oil a day, the Bermuda-based company said. That’s lower than its previous forecast of 150,000 barrels within three years.
MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc has a 20 percent interest in the project and Texas Keystone Inc. holds 5 percent.
Gulf Keystone is planning to move to London’s main stock exchange later this month.

Gruß
S6