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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.837.594 von moneyscheffler am 02.03.12 00:32:00@money
weshalb gleich so agressiv
es wird doch erlaubt sein müssen den barrelpreis zu nennen
das macht man ebenso bei EM-Preis in diversen rohstoffthreads
um sich vielleicht nochmal vergegenwärtigen...was das zeug im boden
wert ist ...kapisch
weshalb gleich so agressiv
es wird doch erlaubt sein müssen den barrelpreis zu nennen
das macht man ebenso bei EM-Preis in diversen rohstoffthreads
um sich vielleicht nochmal vergegenwärtigen...was das zeug im boden
wert ist ...kapisch
Zitat von moneyscheffler: barrel bei 127$
Das tangiert den Kurs von GKP in keinster Weise.
Oder glaubst du, dass eine Exxon oder Sinopec eine mögliche Übernahme
vom aktuellen Ölpreis abhängig machen wird ?
Das kannste knicken, meiner Meinung nach.
Morgen, nach dem fulminanten Kursanstieg der letzten Wochen, befinden wir uns in einer stabilen Seitwärtsbewegung d.h. der derzeitige Kurs wird bestätigt....nun kann sich jeder wohl ausmalen was bei guten Ergebnissen in den nächsten Wochen hier mit dem Kurs passieren wird !
Auch ohne Übernahme...
barrel bei 127$
Das tangiert den Kurs von GKP in keinster Weise.
Oder glaubst du, dass eine Exxon oder Sinopec eine mögliche Übernahme
vom aktuellen Ölpreis abhängig machen wird ?
Das kannste knicken, meiner Meinung nach.
Das tangiert den Kurs von GKP in keinster Weise.
Oder glaubst du, dass eine Exxon oder Sinopec eine mögliche Übernahme
vom aktuellen Ölpreis abhängig machen wird ?
Das kannste knicken, meiner Meinung nach.
barrel bei 127$ Trading Spotlight
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/26895/oil-company-ma-investors…
Nur so mal zum Lesen.
Und evtl. auch nur so mal zum Nachdenken.
Nur so mal zum Lesen.
Und evtl. auch nur so mal zum Nachdenken.
gestern hat Baillie Gifford & Co gemeldet Aktien verkauft zu haben und zwar alle(so am 23.02-27.02),wenn das stimmt stehen nicht mehr in den Top Shareholder,
das waren rund 42,9 mill Stück,
frage Wer zum Geier hat Sie gekauft und zu welchen Preis, auf dem Markt sind sie net gelandet oder ?
zumal Sie noch paar tage davor aufgestockt hatten.
Könnte das Aktienpacket bei Exxon sein ,darf aber nicht über 5 %kommen sonst müßten sie es ja melden
das waren rund 42,9 mill Stück,
frage Wer zum Geier hat Sie gekauft und zu welchen Preis, auf dem Markt sind sie net gelandet oder ?
zumal Sie noch paar tage davor aufgestockt hatten.
Könnte das Aktienpacket bei Exxon sein ,darf aber nicht über 5 %kommen sonst müßten sie es ja melden
ebenfalls aus dem iii board ....
1) Exxon
To acquire GKP for £10/share Exxon would need to issue a further 173m shares. Such an issue would dilute Exxon’s existing shares by 3.6%.
At the end of 2010 Exxon had a market cap of $364b. During 2010 Exxon invested $32b in capital expenditure ($27b upstream) and at the end of 2010, Exxon had $7.8b cash. In the third quarter of 2011 alone Exxon spent $5b on share repurchases. And Exxon said it planned to do the same again in Q4 2011. You can see how easily Exxon could do a 50/50 share/cash purchase.
And this would be the payback:
In 2010 Exxon produced 2.4m barrels/day of oil so if Shaikan alone could pump 400K to 600K barrels/day (Todd’s figures in September) then in return Exxon would get a mean 11% boost in oil production from GKP’s share of Shaikan.
Exxon has oil reserves of 7.7 billion barrels so GKP’s share of Shaikan alone could boost Exxon’s oil reserves by 32%. Exxon has 24b reserves in all forms (oil, gas, tar sands etc) but even here Shaikan would boost the broadest measure of reserves by 10%.
This calculation is based on the probable extraction of 4.5 billion barrels from Shiakan over the 30 years of the PSC, a figure derived from Todd’s statements at the Half Year results presentation in September. GKP’s 54.4% share of that would be 2.45 billion barrels.
2) Chevron
Chevron was named yesterday by Forbes as one of the 3 majors talking to the KRG.
Chevron would need to issue 132m shares to buy GKP at £10/share. The dilution to Chevron’s existing shares would be 6.6%.
Chevron has a market cap of $207b and in 2010 invested $19b in capital expenditure. At the end of 2010 it had a massive $14b of cash on its balance sheet. So Chevron could do an all cash purchase of GKP at £10/share without increasing its debt.
In 2011 so far Chevron has pumped 2.7m barrel/day so, GKP’s share of Shaikan could boost its production by 10% when it reaches its peak.
On the reserves front, Chevron has 7.1 billion of oil reserves so GKP’s share of Shaikan would add 35% to its oil reserves. On the wider measure including gas and tar etc, Chevron had 10.5 billion at the end of 2010 so GKP’s share of Shaikan would add 23.3% to its overall reserves.
I am not aware of Chevron having any contract in southern Iraq.
3) Total
Total would need to issue 267m shares to buy GKP and that would dilute existing shareholders by 12%. Total has a market cap of 84.4b euros.
At the end of the third quarter 2011, Total had 20b euros (£17b) cash and its cash balance grew by 6.5b euros (£5.5b) in that quarter alone. Again, like Chevron, Total could do a cash purchase of GKP from existing cash on the balance sheet.
Total is currently producing about 2.4m barrel/day including gas of which about 1.2m barrels is oil. So adding GKP’s share of Shaikan would boost production of oil by 23%.
Total has oil reserves of 5.8b barrels so GKP’s share of Shaikan would add 42% to its oil reserves.
Total bid in every bidding round in the south but only won a small part of one contract (Halfaya) in southern Iraq. Production from that contract has not yet started. Total therefore has little to lose by coming to Kurdistan.
Conclusion
All these three super majors are well placed to buy GKP either for a mix of shares and cash or for cash alone. Total in particular is interesting because of the combination of its huge cash balance and the massive impact GKP’s acquisition would have on its reserves.
For all three super majors, the cost of buying GKP would be massively outweighed by the boost to production and to reserves. GRH1 talked about a parallel universe. It is hard to believe that conversations about a T/O are not taking place in Erbil now.
1) Exxon
To acquire GKP for £10/share Exxon would need to issue a further 173m shares. Such an issue would dilute Exxon’s existing shares by 3.6%.
At the end of 2010 Exxon had a market cap of $364b. During 2010 Exxon invested $32b in capital expenditure ($27b upstream) and at the end of 2010, Exxon had $7.8b cash. In the third quarter of 2011 alone Exxon spent $5b on share repurchases. And Exxon said it planned to do the same again in Q4 2011. You can see how easily Exxon could do a 50/50 share/cash purchase.
And this would be the payback:
In 2010 Exxon produced 2.4m barrels/day of oil so if Shaikan alone could pump 400K to 600K barrels/day (Todd’s figures in September) then in return Exxon would get a mean 11% boost in oil production from GKP’s share of Shaikan.
Exxon has oil reserves of 7.7 billion barrels so GKP’s share of Shaikan alone could boost Exxon’s oil reserves by 32%. Exxon has 24b reserves in all forms (oil, gas, tar sands etc) but even here Shaikan would boost the broadest measure of reserves by 10%.
This calculation is based on the probable extraction of 4.5 billion barrels from Shiakan over the 30 years of the PSC, a figure derived from Todd’s statements at the Half Year results presentation in September. GKP’s 54.4% share of that would be 2.45 billion barrels.
2) Chevron
Chevron was named yesterday by Forbes as one of the 3 majors talking to the KRG.
Chevron would need to issue 132m shares to buy GKP at £10/share. The dilution to Chevron’s existing shares would be 6.6%.
Chevron has a market cap of $207b and in 2010 invested $19b in capital expenditure. At the end of 2010 it had a massive $14b of cash on its balance sheet. So Chevron could do an all cash purchase of GKP at £10/share without increasing its debt.
In 2011 so far Chevron has pumped 2.7m barrel/day so, GKP’s share of Shaikan could boost its production by 10% when it reaches its peak.
On the reserves front, Chevron has 7.1 billion of oil reserves so GKP’s share of Shaikan would add 35% to its oil reserves. On the wider measure including gas and tar etc, Chevron had 10.5 billion at the end of 2010 so GKP’s share of Shaikan would add 23.3% to its overall reserves.
I am not aware of Chevron having any contract in southern Iraq.
3) Total
Total would need to issue 267m shares to buy GKP and that would dilute existing shareholders by 12%. Total has a market cap of 84.4b euros.
At the end of the third quarter 2011, Total had 20b euros (£17b) cash and its cash balance grew by 6.5b euros (£5.5b) in that quarter alone. Again, like Chevron, Total could do a cash purchase of GKP from existing cash on the balance sheet.
Total is currently producing about 2.4m barrel/day including gas of which about 1.2m barrels is oil. So adding GKP’s share of Shaikan would boost production of oil by 23%.
Total has oil reserves of 5.8b barrels so GKP’s share of Shaikan would add 42% to its oil reserves.
Total bid in every bidding round in the south but only won a small part of one contract (Halfaya) in southern Iraq. Production from that contract has not yet started. Total therefore has little to lose by coming to Kurdistan.
Conclusion
All these three super majors are well placed to buy GKP either for a mix of shares and cash or for cash alone. Total in particular is interesting because of the combination of its huge cash balance and the massive impact GKP’s acquisition would have on its reserves.
For all three super majors, the cost of buying GKP would be massively outweighed by the boost to production and to reserves. GRH1 talked about a parallel universe. It is hard to believe that conversations about a T/O are not taking place in Erbil now.
sollte man sich immer vor Augen halten .... aus dem iii board:
Shaikan,
10.5bbls mean P50 * 35% RF = 3.68bbls recoverable * 54.4% = 2bbls WI to GKP on Shaikan alone.
2bbls * $5.80 pboo (Genel) = $11.6 billion * GBP0.64 = 7.42 bilion pounds / by approx 855 million shares = 869p per share for JUST SHAIKAN THUS FAR! AND A 100% UPSIDE to come (Todd Kozel CEO).
SH-4/5/6 and BB/SA/AB and FTSE100 listing etc. still to come
Shaikan,
10.5bbls mean P50 * 35% RF = 3.68bbls recoverable * 54.4% = 2bbls WI to GKP on Shaikan alone.
2bbls * $5.80 pboo (Genel) = $11.6 billion * GBP0.64 = 7.42 bilion pounds / by approx 855 million shares = 869p per share for JUST SHAIKAN THUS FAR! AND A 100% UPSIDE to come (Todd Kozel CEO).
SH-4/5/6 and BB/SA/AB and FTSE100 listing etc. still to come
@Capam,, wer sagt den das die mehr wissen, wie wir ?
D.H. eine Übernahme hier bleibt doch nach wie vor reine Spekulation oder ?
Wünschen würden es sich sicher einige !
So ein Investment Unternehmen..trifft die Entscheidung zu verkaufen...evtl um Cash zu generieren, und woanders einszusteigen !
Oder um das Risko zu minimieren d.h. falls die nächsten Ergebnisse evtl nicht so gut sind wie erhofft.
Ein Freund von mir ist im Wertpapiergeschäft tätig, daher weiß ich wie emotionslos die Profis sowas händeln
Da heißt es zb. KZ ....XXX und wenn dieses erreicht ist , wird verkauft..Punkt
Die denken dann nicht, noch warten ...die läuft noch weiter oder da kommt evtl eine Übernahme das sind noch 50- 100% ..nein nein...so denken nur wie Hobbytrader !
Gruß Earthfire
D.H. eine Übernahme hier bleibt doch nach wie vor reine Spekulation oder ?
Wünschen würden es sich sicher einige !
So ein Investment Unternehmen..trifft die Entscheidung zu verkaufen...evtl um Cash zu generieren, und woanders einszusteigen !
Oder um das Risko zu minimieren d.h. falls die nächsten Ergebnisse evtl nicht so gut sind wie erhofft.
Ein Freund von mir ist im Wertpapiergeschäft tätig, daher weiß ich wie emotionslos die Profis sowas händeln
Da heißt es zb. KZ ....XXX und wenn dieses erreicht ist , wird verkauft..Punkt
Die denken dann nicht, noch warten ...die läuft noch weiter oder da kommt evtl eine Übernahme das sind noch 50- 100% ..nein nein...so denken nur wie Hobbytrader !
Gruß Earthfire
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