Gulf Keystone Irak-Ölperle Deutschland schläft (Seite 84)

[moneyscheffler]

Bin ja weder Basher noch Pusher, weil jeder selbst wissen muss, wie er sein Geld verprasst.
Aber ich denke, dass man nach den Nachrichten der letzten Wochen hier noch Großes sehen wird.

[ikarusfly]

news!!!!

3 February 2012

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Update on operations in Algeria

Agreement on the Hassi Ba Hamou Permit

Gulf Keystone is pleased to announce that all required documentation has been executed and all necessary Government approvals obtained pursuant to the agreement between the Company and BG Group, the Operator, providing for the transfer of the Company's right, title and interest for no consideration in the Hassi Ba Hamou (HBH) Permit to the Operator and Sonatrach.

This development is in line with the Company's announced decision to undertake a gradual strategic exit from Algeria in order to focus on its extensive operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Todd F. Kozel, Gulf Keystone's Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer commented:

"We are pleased that with the HBH transfer we have made good progress towards achieving our goal of a gradual strategic exit from Algeria. We are firmly focused on our operations spanning four exploration blocks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, including the Shaikan world-class discovery, where the 2012/13 high impact drilling campaign is currently underway following excellent results achieved in 2011."

Enquiries:

[moneyscheffler]

TH bei 297,9
geht mal davon aus, dass die 300 heute fallen.

Na dann morgen, oder an einem anderen Tag.

[ikarusfly]

I always like to hear what JG has to say, because he comes across as cautiously optimistic... and not a man who is likely to let the story get ahead of itself.

He has told us many times that he thinks a recovery rate of 30-35% is reasonable, and he continues to report upgraded OIP figures much in line with those forecast. In essence, he never seems to say anything other than what he can subsequently prove.

So, it is worth reminding ourselves that he recently mentioned that Akri-Bijeel should command a price tag of between $350 and $500 million, despite the disappointment of Bekhme.

GKP’s 12.8% Net WI in AB currently amounts to 2.4 billion x 0.33 x 12.8% = 100 MILLION barrels of estimated reserves.

So, that suggested that JG was expecting between $3.50 and $5 per barrel based on the results to date.

According to HamishNY’s notes from the presentation yesterday, JG also said “what they do know of Shaikan so far is worth about double the current share price....”

So, what do they KNOW so far?

Latest OIP figures 10.5 billion (P50), JG assumes one-third recoverable, and there is a Net WI 54.4% (after Texas Keystone’s current interest is applied).

10.5 billion x 33%RF x 0.544 = 1900 MILLION barrels of estimated reserves.

Furthermore, GKP’s share price yesterday when he gave his presentation was 279p and gave us a market cap of about £2.4 billion. So, if we were then about half of what JG thinks Shaikan is currently worth, he must see Shaikan as presently worth around £4.8 billion (or $7.6 billion).

And $7.6 billion for 1900 million barrels = $4 PER BARREL, very much in the same ball park as his mid-point estimate for a barrel of AB reserves.

It seems to me then that this is the second indication of how JG appears CAUTIOUSLY to consider what a buyer would pay for GKP’s oil.

But what else does JG say about Shaikan?
He estimates that it will hold 18 BILLION barrels OIP (Note: that is still quite CAUTIOUS compared to TK’s forecast the other day of a 100% upside from where we are now).

*** On the same basis as the figures above, JG's estimate would mean about 3.2 BILLION barrels of reserves attributable to GKP from Shaikan alone ***.

Think about this...

3.2 billion x JG’s very cautious $3.5 per barrel = $11.2 billion = £7 BILLION
And 3.2 billion x JG’s more optimistic $5 per barrel = $16 billion or £10 BILLION.

Now where have I heard those figures before? Oh yes...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/exxon-woos-g…

Extract: < US oil supermajor Exxon Mobil is understood to have sounded out London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) over a possible deal that could value the Kurdistan-focused group at around £7bn.
GKP has a market capitalisation of around £1.5bn and is listed on the junior Aim market, but its chief executive, Todd Kozel, believes the group could eventually go for double-figure billions.>

But, of course GKP then famously denied that there were any talks regarding the sale of the COMPANY.... leaving the door wide open for the fact that there might still have been talks about the sale of SHAIKAN.

Hmmm... hasn't GKP’s very own Chief Operating Officer (JG) just told us that he believes that SHAIKAN alone should soon command a price tag of about £10 BILLION under a competitive bidding process?


Let us also remind ourselves of what HamishNY stated this morning in his notes on JG’s presentation about the rest of the company.

“More on figures. BB - 5bn to 10bn expected, SA - 3bn to 6bn, SH 18bn, AB - MID 20s. (yes, big number). Said if they don't get good price for AB share (process to start this week) then they would hang on as could be v profitable.”

On the same basis as above, this would mean...

1. AKRI-BIJEEL (mean figure of 25 billion barrels OIP)
25 billion x 33% RF x 12.8% Net WI = 1 BILLION barrels of estimated reserves

<Note: I wonder whether that was in there because the results

[moneyscheffler]

TH bei 297,9
geht mal davon aus, dass die 300 heute fallen.

[hergis]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.685.720 von Coxos am 02.02.12 10:02:49

Sieht im Moment gut aus - vielleicht werden heute sogar noch die 300p getestet ...

[Coxos]

ja, das wäre nett
hoch jetzt
der kursverlauf war in den letzten tagen doch etwas enttäuschend
bei den kennzahlen des feldes
xx euro voraus

[hergis]

Wenn sich der Kurs in London heute nachhaltig über der 280p-Marke halten kann (im Hoch waren es schon 289), dann dürfte es hier schnell weiter nach oben gehen.

[moneyscheffler]

jetzt scheint aber die Post abzugehen.

aus lse (übersetzt):
Shaikan ist ein Monster von gigantischen Ausmaßen

[Coxos]

gerade im iii gepostet
was für zahlen
unglaublich

Apologies, new to this Board so re-posting some details that I placed in different thread earlier. Hope of interest:

I just attended the NY investor summit, so here's a brief summary of what JG said. Presentation seemed to be same as for LSE last week but some very interesting snippets. Apologies in advance as a lot of scribbles (feel free to post on iii if of interest as trying to sort my login out there), and usual disclosures about information and how it should be treated apply (this is a brief summary only)

- JG opened by saying this would be the 'best story of the day'. He explained how the company had grown from almost $40m in value to nearly $4bn in a few years.

- He gave the current figures for oil in all blocks and said there is PLENTY of upside left. He said that he believes current figures (for Shaikan in particular) are conservative. He later mentioned on 2 separate occasions they are confident Shaikan is full to spill and a figure of 18bn barrels is likely.

- As heard before, they have tested all the good stuff and are now testing all the 'bad stuff' to see what is really there. He mentioned one part that was a pokey little area and which produced 5,000bpd

- SH-1 and SH-3 are hooked up for production, have expanded well test facilities. SH-4 is the best so far, they are still testing.

- Sheikh Adi they believe there is a lot more oil on the other side of the fault. SH-7 will be the last of the Shaikan appraisal wells. ALL reservoirs and intervals (in SH) have been full of oil and gas. No dry holes, not even in the intervals. They are looking at 300m (1,000ft of net pay which is huge amount).

- 122km pipeline to start this summer. $170mn costs, will finish mid 2013.

- After SH-6 TD, GKP has 30 days to submit development plan to KRG in July / August this year. The clock starts then (on the 30 year production front).

- He believes they have a 10 year plateau of producing between 400k and 600k bpd. Shaikan could be producing for 80 to 100 years so they will leave a lot of oil in the ground.

- **He says according to KRG website BIRs are to be sold to KNOC, the Koreans (note I believe he was referring specifically to Shaikan here, which is why I was surprised).

- Every piece of news on Shaikan good so far, not limited by water point to date. Testing on wells limited to 10,000bpd but more potential.

- cash flow to finance everything. Project insensitive to Capex / Opex issues.

- No security concerns. 5 years in Kurd, no incident. Erbil like a mini Dubai, boom town.

- Shaikan lots of directional drilling. 1mbpd AVAILABLE in Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline. They will have capacity for 400,000bpd but could 'twin' the pipeline to expand this.

- More on figures. BB - 5bn to 10bn expected, SA - 3bn to 6bn, SH 18bn, AB - MID 20s. (yes, big number). Said if they don't get good price for AB share (process to start this week) then they would hang on as could be v profitable.

- DGA report would not be until SH-5 complete so few months away. Next report likely to be from ERC Equapoise(?).

- Still on course for FTSE main listing (would currently be number 95).

- Asked whether they plan to fully develop Shaikan or sell off: they are continuing with their full plan "BUT WHEN THEY WANT TO BUY US ( I understood meaning Shaikan), they're going to buy us. Many majors.. [will be interested]".

Please don't take everything word for word as this is a broad summary. My impression is they are conituning to do all possible to prove up the oil, increase production and create more attractive assets. However, at some stage, a big player will in all probability take a piece(s) off their hands.

He said what they do know of Shaikan so far is worth about double the current share price....