K+S - der Vereinigungsthread (Seite 3107)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.134.347 von hansa0815 am 31.12.13 10:54:00Ein netter, wenn auch leicht überzogener provokanter Kommentar zum Jahresausklang.
Aber messen wir seinen Kommentar an den eigenen Methoden wird aus dem Fuchs recht schnell ein Welpe, denn sich verengende Bollinger Bänder und reihenweisen Bruch von gleitenden Durchschnitten als neutrale Situation zu beschreiben setzt wohl eine stark beschlagenen Brille voraus. Hoffenb wir nur für ihn, dass sich an seine "Analysen" kein praktisches Handeln anschließt.
Allen (natürlich auch unserem Füchschen) einen guten Rutsch.
Aber messen wir seinen Kommentar an den eigenen Methoden wird aus dem Fuchs recht schnell ein Welpe, denn sich verengende Bollinger Bänder und reihenweisen Bruch von gleitenden Durchschnitten als neutrale Situation zu beschreiben setzt wohl eine stark beschlagenen Brille voraus. Hoffenb wir nur für ihn, dass sich an seine "Analysen" kein praktisches Handeln anschließt.
Allen (natürlich auch unserem Füchschen) einen guten Rutsch.
Zitat von Einschwabe1: Kurz knapp und treffend AnaysiertWeiter so Hansa
Ich wünsche euch allen ein gutes neues Jahr...
Gruß
Schwabe
Das uralte Problem der Charttechnik war, ist und bleibt die Subjektivität.
Von ganz eindeutigen Trends mal abgesehen sind sich die Techniker ja nicht einmal einig welcher Trend denn nun vorherrscht. Bei den Elliott-Leuten ist es ja noch schlimmer.
Bis heute wartet die Welt gespannt darauf welcher Chartechniker über einen langen Zeitraum hinweg - und das ist ganz wichtig - die entsprechende Benchmark ausperformt.
Man kann ruhig darauf wetten, daß nahezu alle Fondsmanager in irgend einer Weise Charttechnik durchführen, zur Kenntnis nehmen und auch entsprechend handeln. Aber nur die allerwenigsten schaffen es über längere Zeit, und da denke ich schon an Jahre, überdurchschnittlich erfolgreich zu sein.
Und selbst wenn, so stellt sich die Frage ob dies allein der Charttechnik geschuldet ist.
Zudem kommt das Problem, daß auch bei Vorliegen eines eindeutigen Trends das kleine Männchen in der Großhirnrinde das Gegenteil sieht.
D.h. selbst bei einem ganz eindeutigen Abwärtstrend sehen viele bei dem Wert das größte Potential - nach oben!
Habe das selbst erlebt bei den Teilnahmen an Regionalmeetings der VTAD.
Unglaublich wie die Masse damals sich irrte und schief lag.
Der Respekt vor der Charttechnik geht seitdem auf Null.
Und wieder stellt sich die alte Frage: Wo sind die Hochseeyachten der
Charttechniker?
MrLivermore
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.135.253 von Hapsch am 31.12.13 13:48:39Könnte in der Tat spannend werden. Habe aber so ein Gefühl, dass es wieder anders kommt.
Und da ist die Nachricht. Könnte ein Riesen Spaß werden am Donnerstag.
Und damit wünsche ich euch allen einen guten Rutsch.
Uralkali back in the Belaruskali fold — but can they reverse the price hit potash suffered as a result of the breakup?
Posted on December 30, 2013 by Robin Bromby
Belarus' President Lukashenko speaks to reporters after a meeting with the Knights of Malta at their headquarters in RomeWe knew it was coming and now it’s official according to a Russian news service RT: Uralkali is going back into business with Belaruskali, its former Belarus partner. This reunited cartel used to — and obviously will soon again — control 40% of the world’s potash trade.
This will be welcome news for all those with an interest in such a reunion — the Belarus and Russian governments and, of course Canpotex — because it offers the prospect that what they no doubt see as “loose cannons” (we know them as new independent producers) will find it harder to crack the power of the big players in the world of potash; it will negate the Indians and Chinese trying to play one side against another to hammer prices down further.
The present (relatively) depressed state of potash prices has been partly blamed on Uralkali busting up the Belarus/Russian potash cartel. But now we will have to wait and see whether this reunion reverses the price trend. On that depends the hopes for new mines (and competitors) getting into the market. Belaruskali/Uralkali and Canpotex will be taking cheer from the fact that, with prices hovering around the $300/tonne mark, life is tougher for any new player trying to get into production. So far as Canpotex is concerned, that would apply to BHP Billiton’s Saskatchewan’s plans; for all the players, it covers any new producer.
However, this may be a temporary reprieve. As I pointed out here recently, there is a only so long the farmers of the developing world can stall their use of potash. Some 80% of China’s arable land is potash-deficient. Since the 2008 financial crisis hit, farmers around the world have ‘mined’ nutrients from the soil. Now they have to put them back if crop yields are to be maintained. The world population is growing, developing countries are seeing diets improve as people can afford better food (China’s meat consumption has tripled since 1990) but the amount of arable land is shrinking due to urbanisation and other factors.
It hasn’t helped that some of the existing players have been prepared to act against the best interests of the industry to score business. One factor that kept a lid on prices in 2012 was the deal two years earlier where China locked in contracts to buy at $350/tonne from Belarusian Potash and at $355/tonne from Israeli Chemicals — deals that were severely criticised at the time by Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan.
News of the Belaruskali/Uralkali kiss-and-make up was broken at a press conference in Minsk by the Russian ambassador to Belarus, that man adding he hoped the joint marketing of potash fertilisers should be restored. As it surely will be: the reconciliation would be pointless unless that was the objective.
It brings to an end five months of high drama in the Belarus/Russia potash world, including the arrest by authorities in Minsk of the then Uralkali chief executive, Vladislav Baumgertner. His plan had been a sound business one (using Uralkali’s very low cost base to go it alone and undercut everyone else) except that it proved not to be politically sound.
But all that has been resolved, as was expected when Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov and a fellow businessman bought the key 47% stake in potash firm Uralkali and brought in a replacement for Baumgetner in the form of Uralkali’s deputy chairman Dmitry Osipov. Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko had demanded the exit of the man who controlled the ruling stake in Uralkali, Suleiman Kerimov; that was a precondition for a revival of the alliance. The problem for Baumgertner was that he had annoyed not just the Belarus government, but his Russian masters as well. You see, Vladimir Putin has his Eurasia dream which is essentially recreating the old Soviet Union in a new, modern and politically acceptable guise. His key allies in this are Belarus and Kazakhstan, and he no doubt wants to keep that base solid and unified while he woos Ukraine and the central Asian republics.
So this has to be seen as being on two levels, Moscow’s political strategy and the struggle for future control of potash supply. Baumgertner put a rather large stick in the spokes of both wheels. The political issue, so far as this issue is concerned, is now resolved for the moment. The long term ability of the Belarus/Russian grouping and Canpotex to keep their dominance is quite another matter.
It is only a matter of time before China, the world’s largest potash importer, puts its foot on more resources around the world. Indian companies have been slow off the mark in this regard, but eventually they, too, will move.
In regard to Russia and Belarus, a third player is emerging in the form of Russia’s EuroChem. It is significant that just recently EuroChem, Russia’s largest mineral fertilizer producer, and China-based potash fertilizer producer Migao Corporation announced a joint venture to produce up to 60,000 tonnes of potassium nitrate and up to 200,000 tonnes a year of chloride-free complex fertilizers (NPK)
Then we have Brazil, the agricultural powerhouse and desperate to develop its own potash resources — it presently has to import ninety per cent of its needs. And then Australia, too, wants to be a player, both at home and abroad.
Meanwhile, the present low prices must be a strain for explorers wanting to raise money or bring in partners. (Of course, the current price range above $300/tonne should be seen in context: between 2000 and 2007, potash producers had to be content with $200/tonne or below.)
In the short term, new projects are going to be delayed. We saw that last week when it was reported from Sydney that the A$264 million bid for Elemental Minerals by a Chinese company was on the brink of collapse. This is due mainly to problems satisfying the rules of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but the bottom line is that it means further delays to any progress with the important Sintoukola potash project in the Republic of Congo. While the project is expected to support a long-life, low-cost potash operation, someone has to come up with the $2 billion to make that possible.
Und damit wünsche ich euch allen einen guten Rutsch.
Uralkali back in the Belaruskali fold — but can they reverse the price hit potash suffered as a result of the breakup?
Posted on December 30, 2013 by Robin Bromby
Belarus' President Lukashenko speaks to reporters after a meeting with the Knights of Malta at their headquarters in RomeWe knew it was coming and now it’s official according to a Russian news service RT: Uralkali is going back into business with Belaruskali, its former Belarus partner. This reunited cartel used to — and obviously will soon again — control 40% of the world’s potash trade.
This will be welcome news for all those with an interest in such a reunion — the Belarus and Russian governments and, of course Canpotex — because it offers the prospect that what they no doubt see as “loose cannons” (we know them as new independent producers) will find it harder to crack the power of the big players in the world of potash; it will negate the Indians and Chinese trying to play one side against another to hammer prices down further.
The present (relatively) depressed state of potash prices has been partly blamed on Uralkali busting up the Belarus/Russian potash cartel. But now we will have to wait and see whether this reunion reverses the price trend. On that depends the hopes for new mines (and competitors) getting into the market. Belaruskali/Uralkali and Canpotex will be taking cheer from the fact that, with prices hovering around the $300/tonne mark, life is tougher for any new player trying to get into production. So far as Canpotex is concerned, that would apply to BHP Billiton’s Saskatchewan’s plans; for all the players, it covers any new producer.
However, this may be a temporary reprieve. As I pointed out here recently, there is a only so long the farmers of the developing world can stall their use of potash. Some 80% of China’s arable land is potash-deficient. Since the 2008 financial crisis hit, farmers around the world have ‘mined’ nutrients from the soil. Now they have to put them back if crop yields are to be maintained. The world population is growing, developing countries are seeing diets improve as people can afford better food (China’s meat consumption has tripled since 1990) but the amount of arable land is shrinking due to urbanisation and other factors.
It hasn’t helped that some of the existing players have been prepared to act against the best interests of the industry to score business. One factor that kept a lid on prices in 2012 was the deal two years earlier where China locked in contracts to buy at $350/tonne from Belarusian Potash and at $355/tonne from Israeli Chemicals — deals that were severely criticised at the time by Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan.
News of the Belaruskali/Uralkali kiss-and-make up was broken at a press conference in Minsk by the Russian ambassador to Belarus, that man adding he hoped the joint marketing of potash fertilisers should be restored. As it surely will be: the reconciliation would be pointless unless that was the objective.
It brings to an end five months of high drama in the Belarus/Russia potash world, including the arrest by authorities in Minsk of the then Uralkali chief executive, Vladislav Baumgertner. His plan had been a sound business one (using Uralkali’s very low cost base to go it alone and undercut everyone else) except that it proved not to be politically sound.
But all that has been resolved, as was expected when Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov and a fellow businessman bought the key 47% stake in potash firm Uralkali and brought in a replacement for Baumgetner in the form of Uralkali’s deputy chairman Dmitry Osipov. Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko had demanded the exit of the man who controlled the ruling stake in Uralkali, Suleiman Kerimov; that was a precondition for a revival of the alliance. The problem for Baumgertner was that he had annoyed not just the Belarus government, but his Russian masters as well. You see, Vladimir Putin has his Eurasia dream which is essentially recreating the old Soviet Union in a new, modern and politically acceptable guise. His key allies in this are Belarus and Kazakhstan, and he no doubt wants to keep that base solid and unified while he woos Ukraine and the central Asian republics.
So this has to be seen as being on two levels, Moscow’s political strategy and the struggle for future control of potash supply. Baumgertner put a rather large stick in the spokes of both wheels. The political issue, so far as this issue is concerned, is now resolved for the moment. The long term ability of the Belarus/Russian grouping and Canpotex to keep their dominance is quite another matter.
It is only a matter of time before China, the world’s largest potash importer, puts its foot on more resources around the world. Indian companies have been slow off the mark in this regard, but eventually they, too, will move.
In regard to Russia and Belarus, a third player is emerging in the form of Russia’s EuroChem. It is significant that just recently EuroChem, Russia’s largest mineral fertilizer producer, and China-based potash fertilizer producer Migao Corporation announced a joint venture to produce up to 60,000 tonnes of potassium nitrate and up to 200,000 tonnes a year of chloride-free complex fertilizers (NPK)
Then we have Brazil, the agricultural powerhouse and desperate to develop its own potash resources — it presently has to import ninety per cent of its needs. And then Australia, too, wants to be a player, both at home and abroad.
Meanwhile, the present low prices must be a strain for explorers wanting to raise money or bring in partners. (Of course, the current price range above $300/tonne should be seen in context: between 2000 and 2007, potash producers had to be content with $200/tonne or below.)
In the short term, new projects are going to be delayed. We saw that last week when it was reported from Sydney that the A$264 million bid for Elemental Minerals by a Chinese company was on the brink of collapse. This is due mainly to problems satisfying the rules of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but the bottom line is that it means further delays to any progress with the important Sintoukola potash project in the Republic of Congo. While the project is expected to support a long-life, low-cost potash operation, someone has to come up with the $2 billion to make that possible.
Zitat von hansa0815: Das war klar das uns nun nach unserem allseits bekannten Threadclown und Cockstruncher nun noch der Chartstricher mit seinem Dauergrinsen im Avatar beehrt.
Wie immer ein Geschmiere wahllos gezogener Linien mit denen er anderen weismachen will was geht.
Das Ganze untermauert durch nichtssagende Floskeln um bei Ahnungslosen Eindruck zu schinden.
Hat fundamental nichts drauf und auch sonst keine Ahnung. Davon aber reichlich.
Kauf Dir mal ne neue Brille du STATISTIK FURZ.
Herr, erbarme Dich seiner armen Seele
Trading Spotlight
Kurz knapp und treffend Anaysiert Weiter so Hansa
Ich wünsche euch allen ein gutes neues Jahr...
Gruß
Schwabe
Weiter so Hansa Ich wünsche euch allen ein gutes neues Jahr...
Gruß
Schwabe
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 46.134.123 von StatistikFuchs am 31.12.13 10:08:52Das war klar das uns nun nach unserem allseits bekannten Threadclown und Cockstruncher nun noch der Chartstricher mit seinem Dauergrinsen im Avatar beehrt.
Wie immer ein Geschmiere wahllos gezogener Linien mit denen er anderen weismachen will was geht.
Das Ganze untermauert durch nichtssagende Floskeln um bei Ahnungslosen Eindruck zu schinden.
Hat fundamental nichts drauf und auch sonst keine Ahnung. Davon aber reichlich.
Kauf Dir mal ne neue Brille du STATISTIK FURZ.
Wie immer ein Geschmiere wahllos gezogener Linien mit denen er anderen weismachen will was geht.
Das Ganze untermauert durch nichtssagende Floskeln um bei Ahnungslosen Eindruck zu schinden.
Hat fundamental nichts drauf und auch sonst keine Ahnung. Davon aber reichlich.
Kauf Dir mal ne neue Brille du STATISTIK FURZ.
Die K&S Aktie war eindeutig der Verlierer im Dax des Jahres 2013. Doch nach dem Anstieg über 21,50 Euro ist die Aktie zum Jahresende nun wenigstens wieder neutral im Trend. Für Trendfolger gibt es keinen Handlungsbedarf. Im Trendtrading verdient man das Geld durch Aufwärtstrends, nicht durch beendete Abwärtstrends. Der neutrale Trendbereich erstreckt sich von 19 bis 25 Euro.
Täglich aktuelle Dax Chartanalysen http://www.statistikfuchs.de/Trends/Lanxess.
Gruß Statistikfuchs
Täglich aktuelle Dax Chartanalysen http://www.statistikfuchs.de/Trends/Lanxess.
Gruß Statistikfuchs
Zitat von jojo6666: Endlich mal jemand, der den Durchblick hat. Ist doch auch mein Reden! Es gibt soviele bessere Aktien. Bei K&S dafür soviele Risiken. Aber das wollen manche hier nicht wahrhaben. Trotzdem allen einen guten Rutsch und ein erfolgreiches 2014.
Das Wünsch ich dir auch .Einen so Guten Rutsch das du vielleicht wieder zu sinnen kommst oder für ein paar Monate im KH den K+S Kursanstieg verfolgen musst.
Anstatt bei soliden Deutschen Dax-Firmen für Kursverluste zu sorgen, sollte sich die HF mal lieber in den eigenen Reihen, sprich bei den US-Werten umsehen die WIRKLICH!!!!!! abgehoben sind.
Ach ich vergaß, von 9 EUR auf 1250 EUR ist natürlich eine Bewertung, die dem realen Wert der Firma entspricht. (priceline.com 2003-2013)
Ach ich vergaß, von 9 EUR auf 1250 EUR ist natürlich eine Bewertung, die dem realen Wert der Firma entspricht. (priceline.com 2003-2013)
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