Rohstoffaktien-Depot mit langfristansatz Strategie (Seite 5915)

[zyperus]

hallo, bez. silber.

ein wenig lesestoff, quelle:http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/12005

Balancing Small Silver with Big Payoffs: David Morgan
Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report (12/14/11)

David Morgan, publisher of Silver Investor, likes the balanced risk and growth that midtier companies provide, but even he can't resist the pull of having a speculative pick pay off. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Morgan talks about the tenets he lives by when investing in mining companies, be they small-cap or midtier or billion dollar companies.

The Gold Report: David, in August you predicted that the silver price could go as high as $75 an ounce (oz). It was recently at about $32/oz. Where is it along the path to $75/oz?

David Morgan: I don't see the silver price going above the $50/oz level in 2011. In other words, the top is in for this year, and has been for some time. I do see silver's price going above $50/oz in 2012. I forecast $65–75/oz silver by the end of 2012. I don't foresee a big rush into price appreciation for gold or silver in the first quarter of 2012 (Q112), which is seasonal. Typically, there is a very strong boost to the price of metals in the first quarter of every year. However, this year I'm suspect because of what's going on in the Eurozone and all the paper pushing between the central banks of the world. I'm reserved about what's going to happen over the next three months.

TGR: What did you think of the recent move by central banks in the U.K. and Canada getting together to boost liquidity in the markets? It seemed to push up the gold price a bit.

DM: It was what I call "old school." I'm showing my age, but we used to avidly watch the U.S. money supply. When there was a significant increase in the money supply, the gold price would reflect that because it is more dollars chasing a fixed amount of goods. It's a clear indicator that papering over the problem is not a solution and gold is shouting that loudly. The increase in M1, M2 or M3 (not provided by the Fed anymore) is looked at, but not with the intensity it was in the 1970s.

TGR: In the November issue of Silver Investor, you report that China could become a significant holder of European debt. While any such move would devalue China's significant holdings of U.S. Treasuries, it would provide leverage for China's efforts to form a new global currency backed in part by gold. Could you expand upon that idea?

DM: China as a nation has become the creditor of last resort because it has money to recycle. The more debt that it owns, the more control it has over the debt. China would have a lot of leverage in any default negotiations. There was a conference about a gold-backed yuan about a decade ago. The idea about a gold-backed currency is probably going to take place at some point in the future. China has bought more gold all along than they publicly admit, but the amount is far too small at this point to do any real gold backing to their currency. The country continues to buy gold slowly and quietly. It's hard to say when China would have enough to make a viable gold-backed currency out of the yuan. That's where the negotiations would come into play.

TGR: Do you think it would take decades?

DM: It would take decades to accumulate enough to make a gold-backed yuan in the fashion China is acquiring gold now. However, if China dumped a significant amount of its money (U.S. debt) into gold at once it would drive up the price thousands of dollars an ounce overnight. Gold would go ballistic. On the other hand, China has the leverage of the debt. In other words, it says, "U.S., you owe us this much money, so what we'll do is we'll discount the debt. You send us this much gold and we'll cancel out part of the U.S. debt we hold." That is a lot of power. Remember, "The borrower is servant to the lender."

TGR: You recently reprinted Ron Hera's "23 Ways to Boost Silver Investment Profits." It talks about risk versus growth.

DM: The best place to be in this market, after establishing a physical metals position, is on the mining side by balancing risk with growth. I like the midtiers because this is where the greatest growth is along with mitigated risk.

TGR: Hera also tells investors to take a 24- to 36-month time horizon.

DM: All markets move up and down, including the silver market. Investors have to take the long-term view of this market. There is still a major trend to the upside, but there's going to be more volatility.

TGR: Hera tells investors to be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.

DM: I was getting fearful while others were getting greedy when silver was around the $35/oz level on its way to $50/oz. I cautioned investors that if they had to buy silver at that level to only buy some because the market was temporarily overdone. I was getting a lot of blowback from even some of the better analysts for being too cautious. I called the top around $48/oz and I'm pleased with that call. In other words, looking from the perspective of this interview my call was a good one, yet you would not believe the flack I took from some in this business.

TGR: Hera also says, "No excuses." If a company isn't progressing, just get out.

DM: You have to hold every company's feet to the fire. Ask what it plans to do next year and if it met its milestones last year. The idea is to strive to do everything it set out to, but if it can't then it should report it honestly and move on.

I don't really like the junior sector that much. There are a lot of companies that have gone by the wayside early in the junior mining cycle. There are still some good values out there, but it's pretty tough to call these days.

TGR: He also advises that investors pay attention to value and don't pay a premium to get on the bandwagon.

DM: I agree. For example, we did an update on Royal Gold Inc. (RGL:TSX; RGLD:NASDAQ) sometime ago that showed how valuable it was—even at an extended stock price. A well-known Wall Street stockbroker took the time to call me to say it was an over-the-top, great report. That stock has done extremely well while so many have not.

TGR: Hera also discussed the influence of inflation on real wealth. Given the hidden inflation in the market, he argues that to preserve or even grow wealth, investors have no choice but to seek higher gains of a minimum of 25% a year. What's your perspective on it?

DM: Markets are volatile. They wax and they wane. The market is in a period of consolidation. Very few stocks are reflecting their true value. It's a good time to gradually get into these stocks. They could go lower over the next few months, but they represent one of the best places to put money right now.

As far as what to expect in the future, let me just state that I agree with ShadowStats.com Editor John Williams' prediction that we have 10% inflation. There will always be some dogs (stocks) that won't move, but there should be some real gains in precious metals. If there's truly 10% inflation, there could be 25% gains in a mining equity, which would be a 15% real gain versus the true inflation rate. Once the sector gets hot again, the gains could be huge.

Presently, stocks are undervalued, which means be greedy when everyone's fearful. This is the time investors should be buying.

TGR: Some pundits are saying that the market's going to go even lower before it heads higher. Do you believe that's the case?

DM: I do, but to think that you can pick an exact bottom is an amateur's game. A professional tries to get in and accumulate while the getting is good. I'm looking at December through perhaps as late as April.

TGR: If investors are trying to reach 25% returns per year, they've got to turn to the small-cap space.

DM: Not necessarily. First, to expect those returns every year is unreasonable. However, investors could make 17% a year just by holding a good company, like Royal Gold, and writing the options on it. The options writers win 85% of the time and the option buyers lose 85% of the time. An investor could rent a stock like that out to people that want to play the options game and smile all the way to the bank—even in a downtrending market.

TGR: Nonetheless, you have some speculative buys on a handful of small-cap silver plays.

DM: Of course. Nothing is more exciting than getting a speculation right. We had Western Copper before it was renamed Western Silver, and eventually bought out by Glamis. Glamis was eventually bought out by Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE). When you get a 4,000% gain on something, you can't help but smile.

We like some small caps. Silvermex Resources Inc. (SLX:TSX; GGCRF:OTC) is one that we've come back to. The stock did fairly well after our initial recommendation. Then we went into this financial situation that clobbered everything and Silvermex had to regroup. We sold it. We came back to it when it was very undervalued. I've done that on several companies.

TGR: Silvermex is down about 26% year-over-year right now. Is that just the market or is that fallout from the deal with Genco Resources Ltd.?

DM: It's both. The Genco deal looks pretty good on paper, but the market is giving a different vote right now.

Sometimes persistence pays off in stocks, however. I'll give you an example. We owned First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:Fkft) for a very long time. We had it at $4/share, but it was under $4/share month after month. When that stock finally caught on it went like gangbusters. We could have missed a huge move in that stock if we weren't persistent. Am I always right? No. Am I right on Silvermex? I don't know yet. Does it look bad at this particular point in time? Yes, it probably does. But I know enough to know that there's a strong probability that at some point the stock will catch up.

TGR: What's your view of Silvermex's management?

DM: It's one of the better management teams out there. I know Mike Callahan, Silvermex's president who was formerly an executive with Hecla Mining Co. (HL:NYSE). I also know Art Brown, who was also with Hecla. Silvermex has a strong board. They want to make this company viable. They have something to prove.

TGR: It's trading at about $0.40/share right now. Is that a good entry point?

DM: We had it earlier than that, but it's probably OK. Investors could slowly build positions between now and April to take advantage of any further market decrease.

TGR: You've done pretty well with some of the midtiers, too.

DM: Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG:TSX) stock is up 20% after it announced a much larger, higher-grade asset. We were into the stock at around CA$8/share. It's well above CA$10/share, but it's still undervalued. We love the management. Robert Quartermain has a proven track record. Investors see a stock move and they're scared to buy it. That's incorrect thinking. A lot of these stocks that make big moves make new high after new high. How else does a stock go from $5/share to $50/share?

TGR: Pretium is up about 45% so far in 2011. How much upside is left?

DM: I think there's plenty left. Think about buying $1,000 worth of Coca-Cola stock in 1928. People worry about how much is left, but what if the stock goes up 500% or 5000%? You have to let the stock tell investors how much upside is potentially left. You don't want to sell your winners. You want to sell your losers.

TGR: What other midtiers still have some upside?

DM: Tahoe Resources Inc. (THO:TSX) is a great company on my watch list with a lot of upside. It's not very well known.

TGR: BMO Nesbitt Burns has a $26/share price target on Tahoe. It's trading around $18/share now. Do you think that's reasonable?

DM: I do, but I don't like to use price targets because it's a no-win situation. If it makes a target and it stops at that exact price, you're a genius. If it's under that or over that then you get nothing but flack. Do I think Tahoe is undervalued? Yes.

TGR: Tahoe is planning to produce about 316.9 million ounces of silver from its Escobal property in Guatemala over the next 18 years. Do you have any doubts that it will execute on that?

DM: There are always doubts in the mining industry. There's jurisdictional risk in many South American countries. Am I confident that it'll happen? No, not today. Investors should spread out geopolitically. It's very important in today's financial climate to expect the unexpected.

TGR: The company is run by Kevin McArthur, who was the president and chief executive of Glamis Gold, which was taken over by Goldcorp, and then headed Goldcorp. It's hard to argue with that kind of track record.

DM: I'm not. You have to put a great deal of credence into that caliber of management. But the best management in the world in the wrong jurisdiction can have problems. Robert Quartermain is one of my favorite examples. He was involved in a project in Russia and got burned slightly.

TGR: Are there any other company stories you'd like to share with us?

DM: Prophecy Coal Corp. (PCY:TSX; PRPCF:OTCQX; 1P2:Fkft) is undervalued. Prophecy Coal was two companies. It's a coal company, but it also had a platinum group metals company that was spun off. I still like the Prophecy Coal side.

It's a long-term project with a lot of hurdles to overcome in the uncertain jurisdiction of Mongolia. However, I have been to Mongolia and met with some of the people heading up the project, which will be using the coal deposit to fuel a power plant. I got a pretty good feel for how serious they are. As a speculation, it's one of the better ones.

TGR: Do you follow 49 North Resources Inc. (FNR:TSX.V) at all?

DM: Yes, it is on my watch list.

TGR: It's a different kind of play. It's a little like the Pinetree Capital model where it takes positions in companies involved in many different resources.

DM: What I like about that type of model is that it spreads risk out. These are run by professionals that know what they're doing. That model is especially good for the retail investors who don't have the time to understand what they're buying. It's a good way to play the market.

TGR: In a response to a readers' inquiry about the frightening possibility of deflation, you replied, "I do see a deflationary scare and suggest you buy all the way through it—three to six months. These mining stocks are cheap, but could get cheaper. I do not see it as being as bad as 2008." How bad do you see it getting?

DM: The mining equities market could drop another 10%. But it's possible that the current market is as bad as it gets. I do not see the financial crisis of 2008 repeating in 2012. But something needs to be done that's going to really strengthen the financial markets and confidence in the system on a global basis. If that isn't done, I expect 2008 or worse to repeat at some point. But, again, I don't think that will happen for a couple of years.

TGR: Thanks for taking the time to share with us.

David Morgan (Silver-Investor.com) is a widely recognized analyst in the precious metals industry and consults for hedge funds, high-net-worth investors, mining companies, depositories and bullion dealers. He is the publisher of The Morgan Report on precious metals, author of Get the Skinny on Silver Investing (Morgan James Publishing, 2009) and featured speaker at investment conferences in North America, Europe and Asia.

[zyperus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.670.531 von zyperus am 30.01.12 20:45:34

hallo,

ein wenig lesestoff, quelle: http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/12423

Underpriced Precious Metals Juniors Due to Move in 2012: Matthew Zylstra

After a tough year in 2011, there is definitely a good selection of underpriced junior resource stocks available for astute investors to focus on before the rest of the herd finally wakes up and smells the gold. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Matthew Zylstra, mining analyst at Northern Securities, reviews the gold, silver and PGM markets and tells us why he believes that better times are ahead for junior miners in 2012 and which ones he particularly likes at current price levels.

The Gold Report: When you last spoke with The Gold Report in early March of last year, gold was trading around $1,420/ounce (oz) and silver was around $36/oz. Silver peaked about $49/oz in late April and then gold hit around $1,900/oz in September. Now we're back up above $1,700/oz on gold and about $33/oz on silver. Where do you see these prices going this year, after it appears that they have likely bottomed out?

Matthew Zylstra: We're long-term bulls on both metals. Gold has been correcting since September and it looks like it bottomed out around $1,500/oz. We believe the recent decline is a normal pullback in a longer-term uptrend where nothing has really changed to the outlook. We see a perfect environment for the metal—concerns over our currency debasement, negative real interest rates, geopolitical friction, etc. I expect gold will reclaim the 2011 highs and could reach $2,000/oz.

For silver, the picture is less clear. Silver is, in part, an industrial metal accounting for around 50% of demand and less of a currency. Silver peaked at almost $50/oz in April 2011 and the price has been very volatile. We think the move is a correction, again, in a longer uptrend going back to 2003. I expect silver will trade around the mid-$30/oz range this year.

We actually feel platinum has a lot of potential. South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia account for about 90% of platinum production and there's a scarcity of good platinum metals group (PMG) projects outside those countries. We expect increased investment demand and believe that supply disruptions, as well as resource nationalization concerns, will drive the price higher. We note that Sprott Asset Management has formed a physical platinum and palladium trust, which could boost investment demand.

TGR: So, what really happened to the platinum market? Historically, platinum traded at a 30–40% premium over gold. Does it have to do with industrial demand or what happened to cause it to trade below gold?

MZ: The main industrial use for platinum/palladium is automotive catalysts. With fears of a global slowdown, their prices came off. But our view is that supply is not going to be able to meet the demand going forward. And, as you mentioned, platinum has historically traded at a significant premium to gold but the value is now only about 95% of the price of gold.

TGR: Getting to the actual equities, the gold and silver stocks certainly didn't track the metals prices very well the last year. What's been the problem?

MZ: Gold stocks have performed poorly compared to the metals. We believe this has to do with investors being leery about another period similar to what occurred in 2008 when credit markets froze. Exploration and development companies, in particular, are sensitive to what's going on in the capital markets since they require capital to continue exploration. Take, for example, Trade Winds Ventures Inc., which was acquired last year by Detour Gold Corp. (DGC:TSX). Shares of Trade Winds traded down to $0.03 in the 2008 crisis. Trade Wind shares were later bought for cash and stock, which at the time amounted to about $0.45 a share. My point is that people are nervous but that creates opportunity especially with what I believe will be a catch-up in equity prices.

TGR: I hope with metals prices staying up, the credit markets will be a little more optimistic and will loosen up a bit.

MZ: We certainly don't expect another period like 2008. I think that was an aberration.

TGR: So, I hope the stocks start picking up here and not continue acting like gold is $800/oz and silver is $15/oz.

MZ: That is what we expect and the precious metals stocks could really get a boost on QE3 or other stimulus programs.

TGR: So, what do you think is going to be some sort of catalyst to get people more excited faster? Or is this just going to have to be a gradual progression and we are going to have to wait for $2,000/oz gold and $50/oz silver for people to really get into this market?

MZ: The disconnect between gold/silver prices and mining company equities has grown considerably. The sector is cheap by historical standards when you consider the price of gold miners' shares relative to the price of gold. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU), which is an index of 16 precious metals and mining companies, is close to the lowest level it has been since the 2008 crisis relative to gold. We expect this ratio to gradually work its way back to the average. If we see gold mining stocks move up to even the low end of their historical range versus gold, it will mean a significant gain for many of these companies.

Increased merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the sector will get people interested in a lot of these companies. As the price of gold and silver continues to rise, the economics become very compelling, especially for large- and mid-cap companies to acquire smaller players.

More interest in precious metals will help too. With what I see as a developing currency war—a race to devalue—I think more investors are going to turn to precious metals and related equities.

TGR: It certainly seems like there are a lot of smaller companies out there with some interesting looking projects that may be sitting ducks for being taken over. If they have to keep going back to the market to raise more money and create more dilution, that could be a problem. What's your thinking on that?

MZ: Small exploration companies are going to continue to need funds to advance their projects, and costs have been increasing. That's a major problem. The need to raise capital isn't going to change but we are seeing alternative ways of financing such as gold and silver streams, alternative debt arrangements and joint ventures, which mean less dilution.

TGR: A lot of companies that were able to load up with plenty of cash at reasonable prices are obviously happy in this market. Do you think they're going to get pushed to go out and do acquisitions?

MZ: I think what we're seeing now are mining companies with the ability to acquire languishing juniors taking advantage of the environment. The seniors and intermediates, which have filled up their treasuries with robust gold and silver prices, certainly have the ability to do the same. At the end of the year we saw companies like Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) acquiring Grayd Resource Corp, AuRico Gold Inc. (AUQ:TSX; AUQ:NYSE) acquiring Northgate Minerals, and New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.A) acquiring Richfield Ventures Corp. and Silver Quest Resources Ltd. We see this trend intensifying, especially if mining company valuations don't keep pace with rising metals prices.

TGR: That brings us to a little follow-up on some of the companies that you talked about last time. A couple of the junior producers you talked about were Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd. (BGM:TSX.V) and Orvana Minerals Corp. (ORV:TSX). Can you tell us what's going on with them?

MZ: The market has been disappointed with production from both companies. Barkerville recently got a boost after receiving a permit for its Bonanza Ledge property, which is a high-grade open-pittable gold resource. The delay in getting that permit meant that production was not what we had originally expected. Updated resource calculations for the company's Bonanza Ledge, Cariboo Quartz and B.C. vein zone in the first half of 2012 could be a positive there.

Orvana has two properties that were both put into production in 2011. In Spain, the company's El Valle-Boinás/Carlés is an operating gold mine, which is not seeing the head grade we had expected. Grades are slowly increasing from around 2 grams per tonne (g/t) to an expected 3.5 g/t. Its other project in Bolivia, the Don Mario mine, has a different problem. It's an open-pit, copper-gold mine where recoveries have been less than expected—around 50% versus 70–80% for copper. We look for recoveries to improve and think a lot of the bad news has been priced into the shares. We're also encouraged by the fact that Bill Williams has now taken the helm of the company. Bill has exceptional operational technical expertise.

TGR: So you feel both of those are reasonable values at this point?

MZ: On Barkerville we're taking a wait-and-see approach and have the stock rated as a hold. On Orvana we believe the negative news has been priced into the shares and valuation looks compelling.

TGR: So, how about some of the near-term producers that you follow, such as Canadian Zinc Corporation (CZN:TSX; CZICF:OTCBB)?

MZ: Canadian Zinc is a situation where the valuation has not kept up with the project. The company recently passed the major hurdle for environmental approval of its Prairie Creek mine. It's a really interesting story—an old Hunt Brothers mine that could be in production in 2014 or maybe even as early as 2013. For readers who don't know the history of the Prairie Creek mine, it is in the Northwest Territories and was just a few months away from going into production when silver prices collapsed in the early 1980s and the Hunt Brothers went bankrupt. It's a high-grade silver-lead-zinc mine with much of the infrastructure in place that we think has a lot of potential. We actually believe this is an ideal time to own shares of the company since fundamentals have improved and the share price has drifted lower with the sector.

TGR: So that's another one to watch closely and this may be a good time to be picking some up. What about some of the other junior explorers that you like and have talked about in the past?

MZ: For very near-term production I have followed but do not cover Armistice Resources Corp. (AZ:TSX). The company expects to produce 25,000 oz gold in 2012. At around $0.22/share, which is about 50% less than last year, valuation looks interesting. Two that I cover, which are exploration stories, are NioGold Mining Corp. (NOX:TSX.V; NOXGF:OTCPK) and Prophecy Platinum Corp. (NKL:TSX.V; PNIKD:OTCPK; P94P:FSE). NioGold continues to drill at its Marban project in Val-d'Or, Québec. This is a joint venture with Aurizon Mines Ltd. (ARZ:TSX; AZK:NYSE.A) where Aurizon is funding $20 million for exploration. We think the resource could grow fairly significantly from the current 960,000 oz to 1.4–1.5 million ounces (Moz). We actually think Marban could give Aurizon's other project, Joanna, some competition. I think the valuation looks fairly attractive here, trading at about 60% lower than our calculated net asset value.

We're also excited about the potential of Prophecy Platinum. Prophecy has the Wellgreen deposit in the Yukon, which contains 12 Moz of combined PGMs and gold plus 2.4 billion pounds (Blb) of nickel and 2.2 Blb of copper. The in-situ value is around $50 billion and we think a preliminary economic assessment due out in Q112 will show some strong economics for an optimized open-pit. The company is carrying out other work to derisk the project, including metallurgical studies and additional infill drilling for which we'll start seeing results early this year.

TGR: So, that one is well priced at this point and a buy as far as you're concerned.

MZ: Absolutely. The price drifted down after the excitement over the updated resource estimate, but it's come down to a level where we think it offers very good value. We have a $6.40 target price.

TGR: So then, let's look at some silver juniors. One that you follow is Cream Minerals Ltd. (CMA:TSX.V; CRMXF:OTCBB; DFL:FSE). What's going on with that one?

MZ: Cream is a company I cover and which I visited late last year. It's an exploration company with a 41 Moz silver deposit called Nuevo Milenio. It also has about 300,000 oz gold. We believe the company has the potential to really expand the current resource. Cream completed about 20,000 meters (m) of drilling in 2011 and we expect an updated resource out late Q112. This should actually upgrade a fair amount of the Inferred resource to Indicated and could add about 30% to that resource. We also see it doing another round of drilling of 20,000–30,000m in 2012, which we think has the potential to more than double the current resource.

TGR: That sounds promising.

MZ: Another one I don't cover but I think is very interesting is Oremex Silver Inc. (OAG:TSX.V; OARGF:OTCBB; OSI:FSE). This is a small-cap silver exploration company with assets in Mexico. The company recently moved up on good initial results on its Chalchihuites project. The project is in the same area as First Majestic Silver Corp.'s (FR:TSX; AG:NYSE; FMV:FSE) Del Toro project, and we understand First Majestic is aggressively acquiring property in the area. The company's flagship property, Tejamen, has a defined 51 Moz silver deposit. We think the president and CEO is also a real asset for a company with a market cap of around $20M. He's been manager of exploration and development for Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE) in South America.

TGR: So, are you expecting that 2012 is going to be the year that mining stock investors finally wake up and smell the gold and realize it's time to get into this market?

MZ: I think this is the year! Investors have been cautious and focusing just on the downside, holding their money in cash. I think investors should be opportunistic and look for well-run companies with strong management and great assets.

TGR: Well, we're certainly hoping for that also. We appreciate your joining us today and look forward to talking with you again.

MZ: Thank you and I appreciate the opportunity.

[zyperus]

hallo,
silber: quelle: silbernews.at

Angebot 2010: 888 Mio. Unzen (3/4 Minen, 1/4 Recycling)
Verbrauch 2010: 888 Mio. Unzen (3/4 Industrie / 1/4 Investoren)

» 28.01.12 Silbernachfrage steigt, Angebot schrumpft Samstag, 28. Januar 2012, 08:05 Im Jahr 2011 waren die Verkäufe von Silber-Eagles und Silber-Maples größer als die einheimische Silberproduktion in USA und Kanada. Die Nachfrage nach Silber-Eagles und Silber-Maples nahm während der vergangenen Jahre enorm zu. 2011 war das erste Jahr, in dem die Menge der offiziell verkauften Münzen größer war als die einheimische Silberproduktion in USA und Kanada.

[zyperus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.670.124 von zyperus am 30.01.12 19:37:05

hallo, mein erwähnter kleiner downtrend setzt langsam ein.
ich denke dabei an den dax und die wieder einkehrende euro
politik....die medien und die massen werden merken das seit
weihnachten schon einigen in guten branchen aufwärts ging.

siehe biotechs...iron werte...etc. selektiv konnte man schon
eine gute performence zum jahres-beginn einfahren...nochmals
säubert eure depots...die phase ende jan. - bis mitte feb. nutzt
zum kauf von werten deren ihr überzeugt seit...und leichen raus.

die branchen-umschichtungen im großen stil erfolgen nun langsam.
das geld fliesst in "posaunte" branchen....silber...gold, iron
kohle, ree....etc. in jeder gibt es top werte....

bis juni-juli auf die jetztige performence aufbauen und das
jahresendziel vor augen....diese titel sollte man langsam
haben. recherchiert jeder für euch eure titel, hinterfragt
euch selbst ob ihr sie wieder kaufen würdet.

ich versuche nachwie vor, meine mir vorgegebene strategie
durchzuziehen....mein risiko ist durch permanentes full-in
hoch....bei minco und seiner gewichtung bin ich bez. der 10%
minus regel großzügig....ein sehr guter wert...kaufe sie
ev. noch nach. die nachkäufe sichere ich in diesem depot
durch abbauen der lynas pos ab. lynas wird hoffentlich im
depot verbleiben aber nur mit ca. einem drittel der pos.

sowie das depot über 65.000 euro ist will ich mit kleinem
geld etwas spekulativer werden. wir werden sehen.

die stimmung zur zeit halte ich für sehr angespannt...es ist
wieder verstärkt der politische faktor akuterweise im vordergrund...
politische börsen wie letztes jahr verunsichern sehr...weil sie
manipuliert werden ohne ende....im verhähltnis dax / dow wollen
uns die ami's an die performence....esm, efsf, lmaa....es
nervt extrem....wir deutschen zahlen uns noch um unseere eigene
kapitalkraft....466 milliarden für griechenland von uns wohlgemerkt...
nunja...unternehmensgewinne hierzulande auszuzeichnen ist ein kaufmännisches
kunststück...besser auch über jahre subventionieren lassen.

die gefahr eines schlechten börsen-jahres sammelt sich.
aber, wie von 2009-2010, die möglichkeiten mit rohstoff-werten
und deutscher guter nebenwerte mit einem blauen auge davon zu kommen
sollte man nun bedenken.

ein invest in der richtigen branche oder segment kann enorme
unterschiede in der performence bringen...und ich hoffe mit
den depot werten die richtung zu treffen...

gruß
zyperus

[zyperus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.669.505 von TraeidIngIdI0t am 30.01.12 17:45:21

hallo,
zum deutschen depot. ziel ist der größte gewinn.
mit nur kleinem einsatz musste dieses depot schrumpfen.
gigaset und mensch und maschine sind top werte.
aber, wenn lanxess mein erstes ziel, 50 euro, hat.
werde ich die anderen aufbauen.

gruß
zyperus

[zyperus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.669.939 von zyperus am 30.01.12 18:58:36

hallo,zu gindalbie metals.
quelle: finanznachrichten.de

19.01.12 Gindalbie Metals Exploration Update

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/gindalbie…

19.01.12 Gindalbie denies favouring Chinese suppliers

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/gindalbie…

20.01.12 Gindalbie in spotlight over Chinese bias

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-aktien/gindalbie…

http://www.gindalbie.com.au/

Gindalbie is developing the Mid West's biggest and most advanced iron ore project.

eine wirklich sehr gute und informative hp.
charttechnisch sehr verlockend...einer meiner top-werte im iron bereich.
ich hatte einige zeit gewartet das sich ein kleiner boden entwickelt...
man bedenke gindalbie ist zur zeit zu kursen wie seit 2008 nicht mehr
zu bekommen. halte ich für einen top wert bez. mm.
Marktkapital. 817,10 Mio. AUD
Stücke 1,25 Mrd.
Symbol GHL
ISIN AU000000GBG5
WKN 892692
ich weiss....einigen wird die dillution ein dorn im auge
sein....lasst mich dazu sagen....z.b. grange und lynas sieht
es ähnlich aus...zwei werte die ich pers. schon lange habe
dort habe ich einige prozente plus...trotz diesem verhähltnis...

2013 e 2012 e 2011
Umsatz /441,16 Mio./ /76,70 Mio./ /8,82 Mio.
EbitDa /195,99 Mio./ /11,78 Mio./ /-10,85 Mio.
EBIT /178,12 Mio./ /9,24 Mio./ /-11,80 Mio.
Gewinn je Aktie/ 0,0726/ 0,0095/ /0,0154
KGV /7,9831 /64,8625/ /34,056

dies ist eine schätzung, beachtlich der umsatz...

DYOR

gruß
zyperus

[stefanna]

Hallo cyperus !

Es tut so richtig wohl und gibt Sicherheit Deine Ansichten wieder studieren zu können !

Grüße

Stefan

[zyperus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.669.688 von simkus66 am 30.01.12 18:16:55

hallo simkus66,
danke für deine info...ich pers. halte beide
minco für sehr aussichtsreich.

gruß
zyperus

[zyperus]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 42.669.505 von TraeidIngIdI0t am 30.01.12 17:45:21

hallo lieber traeding...,
vielen lieben dank, sehr aufmerksam, passt super
nach den änderungen.

kurz zum depot. nun sind ausser coba und lynas
auschließlich von mir favorisierte gold, silber
und mit grange, gindalbie, northern und bellzone
sogar vier iron titel im depot.

coba werde ich recht großzügig händeln, bin mit dem ek
sehr zufrieden...

lynas nach aussitzen der minusposition (war zeitweilig
sehr hoch gewichtet) darf sie mir nicht mehr ins minus laufen.
sitzt ziemlich genau auf meinem stopp.

bei den anderen werten werde ich selektieren wer z.z. für
die masse am interessantesten sein wird.....heißt...die schwächsten
werte fliegen strikt raus. beachtet bitte meine gewichtung bei meinen werten bez. der nachkäufe. silvermex halte ich pers. zur zeit
für extrem verlockend....dies bezieht sich auf meine risikoeischätzung.
minco hatte ich entsprechend klein gekauft....auch nicht nachgekauft.
die kleine northern posi ist eine speku auf einen schnellen satz....
dito bellzone....hier kann es nach info/news bez. prod. aufnahme untermahlt
mit zahlen losgehen....wenn das mm hier nachhaltig diesen schritt vollzieht
wird es einen großen vertrauensbonus erhaschen...die res. und projekte sind
vom fortschritt und ausbau-stadium top.
gindalbie werde ich weiter ausbauen, kommt info im nächsten post.

aurcana lag einiges an info schon an was verpuffte....charttechnisch sehr
interessant....ein muss für den silberanleger. meine pers. meinung.

lake und rex waren zum depot beginn sehr gute ek möglich....beide
werde ich halten ev. ausbauen.

bei spanish nicht rausschütteln lassen....wer die letzten male deutlich
unter 0,5 euro nachgekauft hat wird beohnt werden. spanish hat für mich den seltenheitsgarant das nix, aber auch nix an der resource zu bemängeln gibt.
spanish mountain bleibt mein top übernahme gold wert,...das mm will keine
stücke abgeben, eine sehr gute res. im dortigen gürtel in unmittelbarer nähe einiger großer....grandich hat einen bericht zu spanish abgegeben...
im threatnachlesbar.

gruß
zyperus

[simkus66]

Minco Silver in Canada moderate Buy, 1x Strong buy und 2x Hold auf TMX.
Will ja eigentlich nur eine Richtung vorgeben aber nur vorbehaltlich.