Kontron AG (S&T/Quanmax), wie erfolgreich geht es weiter? (Seite 39)

[moneypulation]

So schön das alles sein mag, der Kurs hat leider immer recht. Der Markt scheint den Deal anders zu bewerten als das Forum hier. Von der kurzfristigen Euphorie ist wenig geblieben. Ich hab mir die Katek-zahlen mal angesehen, günstiger war der Deal nicht.

[josselin_beaumont]

JohannesWild,

merci beaucoup für deine schriftlichen Ergüsse. da ich am CC - ebenso wie baggo - nicht teilnehmen konnte, helfen mir deine detaillierten Ausführungen de facto erheblich weiter mir meine eigene Meinung zu dem Katek-Deal zu bilden.
Insofern mein (persönliches) Fazit: Ich bleibe hier weiterhin (long)-investiert und veräußere nicht einen Share. Hannes wird liefern, da bin ich mir sicher. Und in Schwächephasen wird sukzessive zugekauft. So einfach ist das!

à bientôt

Jossy

[Cutter_Slade]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.134.385 von JohannesWild am 19.01.24 19:59:17

Vielen Dank auch von mir nochmal.

[JohannesWild]

Kontron Call zur Übernahme von Katek alle Teile übersetzt auf Deutsch, inklusive Folien

So, jetzt gehe ich aber ins Wochenende
(alle Informationen ohne Gewähr)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ccPnbo4ZBBpFnGWPcWe36vvt…

[Money$]

starke Arbeit, Johannes....TOP

[JohannesWild]

Kontron kauft Katek - das wichtigste ganz kurz zusammengefasst.

Allgemeine Informationen:
- Teilnehmer: Hannes Niederhauser (CEO Kontron), Clemens Billek (CFO Kontron), Rainer Koppitz (CEO Katek), Johannes Fues (CFO Katek).
- Kontron hat eine Mehrheitsbeteiligung an Katek erworben, was eine Fusion der beiden Unternehmen bedeutet.

Details der Übernahme:
- Unterschrift unter den Kaufvertrag für etwa 60% der Katek-Anteile wurde geleistet.
- Kontron plant ein Pflichtangebot für die restlichen 40% von Katek, inklusive eines gezielten Delistings.
- Übernahme basiert auf der Zustimmung durch das Anti-Monopol-Amt.
- Kaufpreis: 15€ pro Aktie, insgesamt 129 Millionen €.
- Keine Kapitalerhöhung zur Finanzierung der Transaktion notwendig.

Strategische und operative Aspekte:

- Beide Unternehmen erwarten Synergien und Vorteile aus der Fusion, wie Erhöhung der Gewinnspannen und Marktführerschaft in bestimmten Segmenten.
- Schwerpunkte von Katek: Green-Tech (E-Mobilität, Solarsteuerungssysteme), internationale Präsenz, starke Kundenbasis.
- Kontron fokussiert auf IoT-Software und Technologie, sieht Potenzial in der Vernetzung von Kateks Produkten.
- Geplante Verbesserungen in den Bereichen E-Mobilität, erneuerbare Energien, Luft- und Raumfahrt sowie Elektronikfertigung.

Finanzielle Aspekte und Ausblick:

- Fusion führt zu einem kombinierten Umsatz von ca. 2 Milliarden €.
- Langfristiges Ziel: Transformation in ein IoT-Service-Unternehmen mit hohem Serviceanteil.
- Prognosen für 2024: Umsatz von 1,9 Milliarden € und ein Nettoergebnis von 100 Millionen €.
- Ziel für 2025: Nettoergebnis von 140 Millionen €.

Persönliche Veränderungen:
- CEO von Katek, Rainer Koppitz, tritt zurück, bleibt aber als Berater tätig.
- CFO von Katek, Johannes Fues, wechselt zum Management-Board von Kontron.
- Hannes Niederhauser (Kontron CEO) übernimmt zusätzliche Führungsrolle bei Katek.

[JohannesWild]

Dritter und letzter Teil des Mitschriebs vom Call

Auch wenn ich versuche das gesprochene Wort einigermaßen genau wiederzugeben übernehme ich natürlich keinerlei Gewähr.

Teil 3: Referenzierte Folien: https://ir.kontron.com/20240118_Kontron_Pressekonferenz_fina…

Johannes Fues (Katek CFO):
Folie 9: Todays conference is about the future, but it is worth taking a minute to reflect a little bit more on the past of Katek. What is Katek like, what is Kateks background. When we set out to develop Katek to what it is today we started with a certain understanding of the world and we started with a very ambitious set of strategic objectives. Let me reflect on those. Those who have been following us as analysts or as investors know what we have been doing. First is what we call the electronification of the world and that is just really the understanding that the sheer number of smart devices gets bigger and bigger and the electronic value add gets bigger and bigger. This having said means that the electronification of the world means that the electronic business is growing. This is one of the very underlying growth impulses that have been driving us. And it connects, as you see one in one to the IoT business as well. On the other hand we had those strategic objectives. We wanted to form a market leader for high value electronics. We wanted to cover the value chain. We wanted to develop a second segment. And on the bottom left you see actually what we have done. We have more than 10-folded the revenues. We have successfully built up a second segment with a higher complexity, with an own IoT addressing very specifically the megatrends and I am happy to say that these are going to form the DNA of the Greentech division in Kontron. And that growth has always been standing on two powerful pillars and we are very proud of both of them because they require a certain skillset and specific competencies as inorganic growth, M&A we have done 13 deals in the past 15 years so we know what integration is about. It’s the first time the other way around. But I’m happy to got that way. And on the other hand we invested in organic growth. This really connecting an addition to the electronification world on those growth, high growth markets addressing green markets, green applications. Rainer you want to talk further about milestones.
Rainer Koppitz: Folie 10: We always say a strategy is easy, implementation is hard but you are seeing a lot of tickmarks here. So if we critically review where we stand right now we showed the strongest growth in the European electronics industry. So there is a tenfolding of the revenues since the start. That’s a big tick mark. We are right now the electronics partner of choice for leading German and European brands like Porsche, like Viessmann, like Bosch, like many, many others. We very successfully established a new segment System and products and this is all wrapped around our Greentech DNA and we develop from a southern German provider to a true multinational company with roots in Europe, USA, Canada, Malaysia and also Singapore. And I am extremely proud of that other than many of our competitors we systematically used the crisis like the pandemic, the supply chain bottlenecks for chips to even massively expand our market share because with superior supply chain management and management capabilities overall we have been able to deliver where our competitors have not been able to deliver. So, as we have reached all of those tick marks, we decided end of Q3 last year that we now are leaving the phase one which was all about growth and go to the strategy phase two which is in a nutshell turning the size into profit. We already started the definition and implementation of the strategy in Q3 2023. And now we are ready for the next bold thing and that just means that this merger with Kontron is in the conviction, the persuasions of Johannes, myself and our management team the best opportunity to pursue the further future growth and also our profitability targets. So turning size into profit and now even turning larger size into profit is exactly what we now can implement with this merger together with Kontron.

Clemens Billek (CFO-Kontron): Folie 11: A warm welcome also from my side. Neither Kontron nor Katek have presented their final results yet but we have already some visibility on the final numbers of Kontron for 2023 and we have already announced that we have achieved our targets for 2023. Let me give you some flavor on our expected impact for 2024 as a combined entity. Revenues will go from more than 1.2 billion to around 1.9 billion going close to the agenda 2025 where we have predicted to achieve revenues of 2 billion. The growth margin which stood at around 39% at the end of the third quarter is likely to slightly decline as a first step because of the integration. But in the course of the phasing out of the low margin business and the streamlining of the business activities it is expected to be above 40% in 2025 again. Net profit we will achieve more than 72 Million of net profit this year on a standalone basis. We have already said that we are going to have a new target of 87 Million on a standalone basis. Together with Katek we have raised the guidance again to 100 Million. That implies a net profit growth of 39% year on year from 2023 to 2024 after a already strong growth in 2023 against the past year of 28%. The number of employees will rise, obviously. We need those manpower and engineering strength, they are very valuable to bring both companies and forces together and will rise from around 4700 to roughly 8000 employees. The equity ratio which was above 40% will likely decline to 37% by year end and will be back to 40% in 2025. The cah, we had 292 Mio. of cash at the end of the third quarter. This will only slightly decline. We will do no additional share buybacks because of the focus and priorities. We have already 130 Million of lines to be utilized in place to steer through this new acquisition phase. The net cash we had net cash of more than 70 million by the end of the third quarter. It is declining probably because of the transaction to a net debt of just below 100 Mio. €. That means we will have less than 0,75 debt/EBITDA expected which will improve in view of the planned inventory reductions.
Folie 12: Let me also give you some flavor on the expected liquidity and cash development going forward. The cash inflow will outweigh net cash outflow in 2024. Just to let you know by end of December we have already received the expected 39 Million from the escrow which was put into the escrow by VINCI in the course of the IT-Service transaction, the sale of the IT-Service business which has already strengthened our net cash position. We expect to have a further inventory reduction, also in Q4 and we are currently preparing to pay the majority stake acquisition of the Katek shares. The tender offer will be launched thereafter and we anticipate we will need another around 55 Million in order to pay the shareholders which accept the cash tender offer but at the same time we are working together with BAFIN to find an option to give the shareholders of Katek an option to accept a share offer and take Kontron shares instead of cash if they decide to do so. There is a refinancing of the promissory note to be done in mid-april of this year of 124 Million and we anticipate to acquire another 125 Million of new debt for the purchase price. We have order already on the table from various banks but no decision has taken yet. We will repay the 124 Million of the promissory note also in April together with the refinancing. The planned timeline to let you know our expectations there (Folie 13): Today the SBA has been signed and we have stopped the share buyback program because of the new priorities. The deal is pending issuance of the necessary antitrust and regulatory approvals in Germany, Austria and the United States. We expect a completion and a closing by march to acquire the minority stake and consolidate Katek by then. Thereafter we have just around four weeks to file a mandatory takeover offer for the remaining Katek shareholders. Therefore we expect to have a completion of the mandatory takeover offer by may and to start the initiation of the integration of Katek business by then.
Hannes Niederhauser: Which brings us to this slide (Folie 14) How will the integration look like. Kontron as of today exists of 8 divisions in three segments. The Katek parts will be added to the 8 divisions and at the end we will end up at 10 divisions. There is the industrial division which will get a small part which is in connectivity and synergies with our 5G modules, that’s the Düsseldorf location. This will get a part of the revenues or synergies. There is no change in the telecom area. There is no change in the operation technology services. And the remaining parts of Katek will form one division called electronics. Since this is the origin of Katek we currently consider to even keep the name of Katek in this division. The Division Europe will end up this year at close to 1.3 billion of revenues and will have almost 9% of EBITDA margin as a target. The global segment will increase by the adding of the American business of Katek. So it will increase to 320 Mio. of revenues. And our most important division software and solutions will get a really powerful big new division that’s the green tech with the solar technology and the e-mobility technology and our software into it Kontron Operating System, Kontron grids, AMIGO and all those software products as we call them. And this avionics division will be added the Nextek from America, bringing it to 150 Million. So as I already mentioned midterm it’s our target that Software & Solution is becoming our biggest segment and we made a big step adding 400 Million or half of Katek into that division. That field is supposed to have EBITDA margins of more than 15% and will be our most profitable part of it.
Folie 15: So that’s the systems and money what we do. Now the most important thing. We are raising our guidance. This year we say with Katek can be at least 1.9 billion of revenues. Our targets for 2025 was always 2 billion. For sure we will achieve that. It depends a little bit when the consolidation will happen. The net profit we just increased last week with our standalone guidance for 72 to 87 million. Now we increase it another 15% to 100 million which is a nice number. I believe we will make a party if we have that. So 100 million is the new guidance for 2024 for Kontron and saying that we see good chances in 2025 all the Kontron Software is installed on the Katek products, the gross profit margin will have increased by 5% or more. So I see good chances and we stick to our target of 140 million net profit in 2025 which will be the third big net income improvement per year. Longrun we stay with our vision to transform to a IoT as a service with a lot of service agreements to boost the net earnings to up to 10% by that time.
Thank you for the attention and I believe – if you have questions to the whole thing just let us know now….

Gruß,

Johannes

[max-gewinner]

Ich finde den Deal auch sehr positiv, die Gründe wurden genannt.
Dabei gehe ich davon aus, dass Hannes liefern wird bei der organisatorischen Weiterentwicklung (vielleicht eher Optimierung) der Katek.

[smallvalueinvestor]

Kontron

Meine persönliche Meinung.

Der Deal ist der Hammer:

Man kauft Katek ca 1 Mrd Umsatz (2024) für 200 Mio Euro + 160 Mio Schulden. Die Firma hat spannende Produkte (Wallboxen etc)

Positive Aspekte:
Marge ist im 3. Quartal ein gutes Stück vorangekommen bei Katek. Kontron ist der starke Partner um die Wachstumsziele zu erreichen.
Zinssatz für 160 Mio Euro wird sich peu a peu reduzieren.
Doppelfunktion können abgebaut werden. Synergien können gehoben werden.
Hannes Idee: Verknüpfung Hardware (Katek) mit Software soll ca 5% Marge bringen.
Meiner Meinung nach können auch größere Kunden angesprochen und größere Projekte angestoßen werden. Das WC ist für Katek nicht mehr das Hauptproblem.

Hannes hat Wort gehalten. Anstatt zufrieden zu sein und jetzt die Jungs in Ruhe arbeiten zu lassen, gibt es wieder Moseleien.

Negativ: Integration muß gelingen. Hannes kennt den Laden in und auswendig. Mache mir null sorgen.

Kontron ist top.

VG

smallvalueinvestor

[JohannesWild]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 75.133.410 von Bullon am 19.01.24 17:35:59

Kontron - es bleibt bei Katek ja nicht beim Status Quo

Es bleibt ja mit der Übernahme nicht beim Status quo. Bei der Kontron Übernahme durch S&T hatte Kontron hohe Verluste eingefahren von netto >100 Mio. €. S&T ist angetreten mit dem Versprechen die Margen um 10% zu steigern. Hannes Niederhauser hat geliefert.
Bei Katek ist jetzt das Versprechen die Margen um 5% zu steigern. Hannes Niederhauser wird m.E. wieder liefern.
Im Vergleich zur damaligen Kontron Übernahmen erscheint mir die Katek Übernahme einfacher zu sein.
Die Synergiepotenziale in der Energy Division sind m.E. vorhanden.
Wichtig ist für mich dass jetzt die 140 Mio. net profit in 2025 wesentlich visibler sind. Wenn das aufgeht dann explodiert der Gewinn von ursprünglich geplanten 60 Mio. € net profit in 2023 auf 140 Mio. € in 2025. Das wird sich dann irgendwann auch mal im Kurs stärker bemerkbar machen
Gruß,
Johannes

Zitat von Bullon: Bei Katek habe ich bis dato hauptsächlich extern zugekauften Umsatz in einem konsolidierenden und hart umkämpften Markt gesehen.. Gewinne habe ich noch keine bis dato gesehen ☺️