Meinolf's SOLAR-THREAD - 500 Beiträge pro Seite (Seite 2)

[lieberlong]

China solar wafer sector operating at less than half capacity, claim sources

Staff reporter, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 27 February 2009]

Rumors have recently spread that a surge of factory shutdowns has taken place across China's large solar-grade crystalline silicon wafer makers since mid-February. The region's solar wafer industry is currently operating at less than half its capacity, industry sources have estimated.

China has around 140 solar-grade crystalline silicon wafer makers at present. Leading players include multi-crystalline solar wafer suppliers LDK Solar and ReneSola, and Solargiga Energy and Jinglong, which specialize in mono-crystalline silicon wafers.

Sources at Taiwan-based solar cell makers pointed out that output from China's solar wafer suppliers is unstable due to inconsistent quality. Suppliers frequently suffer canceled orders or returned goods from customers, even if prices are negotiable, the sources claimed. Since the spot market has become more competitive amid weakening demand, inventory at the region's major solar wafer makers has gradually built up, according to the sources. Ultimately, certain production lines have been shutdown, for the time being, in order to save electricity and better control cost management.

According to a research report from Aarkstore (2008 China Solar Grade Wafer or Ingot Industry Research Report), China's solar wafer shipments are estimated reach 2092.6MW in 2008, up 99.4%. The growth shows a slowdown compared to a 146.8% jump in 2007.

http://www.digitimes.com/print/a20090226PB207.html

[lieberlong]

Spot prices for solar cells fall below US$2/watt

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Monday 2 March 2009]

International spot market prices of polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) solar cells have dropped from US$2.1-2.2/watt in early 2009 to US$1.7-2.0/watt currently, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Motech Industries and E-Ton Solar Tech, two Taiwan-based makers of poly-Si solar cells, have quoted slightly less than US$2.0/watt for some potential orders, and fellow maker Gintech Energy has quoted below US$2.0/watt only for major orders with volumes of 20-30MWp, the sources pointed out.

While Taiwan-based makers' prices range from US$1.9-2.0/watt, China-based competitors offer prices between US$1.7-2.0/watt, the sources indicated.

Solar cell makers have generally reduced output since the fourth quarter of 2008 to cope with decreased global demand and high inventory levels, but the global demand seems to have shrunk more than originally estimated, resulting in further drops in spot market prices, the sources explained.

http://www.digitimes.com/print/a20090302PD200.html

[R-BgO]

February 26, 2009, 10:42 am
Solar: UBS Upgrades Sunpower; Downgrades Evergreen
Posted by Eric Savitz

UBS Solar analyst Stephen Chin today wrote a fat report on the solar sector in which he reduced his expectations for solar module pricing, but boosted his forecast for demand. In the process, he shuffled ratings on a number of stocks.

Chin now sees 2009 global solar module pricing at an average $2.50/watt, down from his previous estimate of $3.01/watt, as the industry feels the effects of what he estimates to be about 2GW of excess supply. His estimate represents a 29% drop from an estimated average price of $3.53 a watt in 2008. But with the lower prices, he thinks demand will pick up in the U.S., Germany and Italy. He now sees 2009 demand of 6.4GW, up form 5GW previously; for 2010, he now sees demand of 9.5GW, up from 7 GW.

Here’s a brief look at Chin’s rating changes:

* SunPower (SWPRA): Chin upped his long-term rating on the stock to Neutral, from Sell, while increasing his target to $35, from $25; he also set a short-term Buy rating on the shares. “Our checks suggest SunPower is further along in finalizing solar module sales to U.S. utilities and [will] likely announce 1-2 more wins” in the 2009 first half, which he thinks will be a positive catalyst for the stock. He also thinks the U.S. solar market will recover earlier than the rest of the sector since it was hurt the most by a lack of tax equity financing. He upped his 2009 EPS estimate to $1.75, from $1.65 (still below the Street at $2.43) and raised 2010 to $2.50, from $2 (again, below the Street at $3.40.)
* Motech (6244.TWO): Chin upped his rating on the Taiwan-based company to Buy from Neutral, although he reduced his target to 99 Taiwan dollars, from 172.
* Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Chin cut his rating to Sell from Neutral, reducing his target to $1, from $2.25. “With polysilicon spot market prices normalizing to around $125/kg, down 50% year over year, we believe a focus on Evergreen’s non-polysilicon costs will become more important givne the low-cost advantage of Chinese solar companies such as Yingli,” he writes. “Given our new industry view of a 2GW oversupply of solar modules in 2009, we expect Evergreen may have difficulty extending its solar customers longer payments terms as it has $153 million in cash but has $135 million in capex and outsourcing commitments.” He says a lack of cash will limit Evergreen’s ability to invest in customer projects, as First Solar and SunPower are now doing.
* Oerlikon (OERL.VX): Chin cut his rating on the Swiss company to Sell from Neutral, reducing his target to 12 Swiss francs, from 125. (Wow.) He sees price and margin presure on the company’s equipment for the thin-film solar sector.
* Sino American Silicon (5483.TWO): He cuts his rating on the stock to Neutral, from Buy, with a new target of 70 Taiwan dollars, from 178. Chin writes that the company’s non-polysilicon production costs are “much higher” than those of of its Chinese competitors.

Chin lists his favorite solar stocks as First Solar (FSLR), SolarWorld, Wacker Chemie and DC Chemical, all Buy rated. His least favorites are Evergreen Solar, Q-Cells and Solon, all sell rated, as well as REC, rated Neutral long-term, Sell short-term.

[R-BgO]

Renewable energy project finance: Cause for optimism amidst turmoil

by Andrew Burger, international correspondent

Financing conditions have changed so drastically, and quickly, in the U.S. during the past few months that renewable energy industry professionals may already be looking back at the recent years' phenomenal growth rates with a sense of nostalgia. Whether it's short-term bank lending or debt securities issuance, project or corporate finance, private placements or tax equity deals, the flow of capital from banks, private equity and venture capital funds all but dried up in the latter part of 2008.

But in the face of all this, promising signs and valid cause for optimism remain.

Long fought over extensions and expansions of renewable energy investment and production tax credits were included in the US $700 billion financial rescue and economic stimulus package passed in October. Adding to that, "green" economic stimulus is a core aspect of President Barrack Obama's "American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009," which could inject as much as $126 billion worth of government capital and additional private sector incentives into the economy over the next two years.

Moreover, the bursting of this latest speculative investment bubble is imposing a healthy dose of investment and fiscal discipline that was probably lacking during the frothy "go-go" days of recent years. Though credit is far tighter, and costlier, than it's been, a clearer, more definitive line is being drawn and market tiering is taking place based on more stringent evaluations of operational, financial and credit risk. Companies that have demonstrated success in developing projects and putting proven technologies to good use, or commercializing new technologies, are rising to the top and are more secure in their ability to raise short- and long-term capital.

Rising costs, shrinking demand for tax equity

When it comes to financing and renewable energy, Merrill Lynch's Cleantech Group -- now merging Bank of America's Cleantech group -- continues to be active on three broad fronts: investment banking, trading and making investments as principal, "platforms that have evolved in conjunction with a broader corporate sustainability framework," explained Parker Weil, co-head of energy and power investment banking at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"The market environment is challenging and the cost of capital has increased dramatically. In addition, the price of oil and natural gas has declined, which makes renewable energies less attractive," Weil said.

Tax equity financing -- selling the projected dollar value of tax credits at a discount to finance projects -- has been a mainstay for the industry, and investment banks have been the main, pivotal players in this market. As bank losses have mounted, this vital source of project financing has dried up.

"Tax equity really was the oil that was lubricating [renewable energy project finance]. It's attractive as a financing vehicle because it's low cost, and the financial benefits are easily quantifiable and certain. [But] it offsets taxable earnings, so if you can't use the deduction there's a problem going forward, one that's not easily solved," Weil said.

The expected rate of return on a tax equity investment used to be in the 6% area, he continued. "It's now higher, so the cost of capital from a project developer's perspective has increased. That's consistent with the cost of capital across industries and investment types. The cost of debt and equity has increased. You need to pay a higher new issue premium and bigger discounts to get deals done."

That's an assessment that executives at http://www.ormat.com/Ormat Technologies, a leading player in the geothermal power market, would agree with, though with an experienced management team, proven technology and successful track record, Ormat hasn't been significantly hindered by lack of access to financing and capital.

"The tax appetite of many institutions who used to be players in the monetization of tax incentives has diminished," CEO Dita Bronicki said. The number of active market participants "has diminished from maybe 20 big players 1-1/2 years ago to maybe a handful today...They're mostly financial institutions [and] the financial crisis has had a devastating impact on this."

Nonetheless, there are still investors willing to pay $0.90-$0.95 on the dollar for tax credit packages, added http://www.rasertech.com/Raser Technologies' head of investor relations Richard Putnam. "Investment banks have been large buyers of tax credits, but there are a number of companies out there, not as many as years past, but there's still a good market."

Power purchase agreements

Power utilities being willing and able to sign long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy project developers has been integral to financing projects. They're secure, long-term and hence bankable contracts with established power producer/distributors which, driven by rising power demand, aging plants and clean energy legislation at the state level, utilities are motivated to tap into.

"Municipalities need to make long-term plans, so they lock in these power contracts and then know that they'll have power available to them, so they are as willing to enter into these PPAs as we are," Putnam said. "We would like to know how much power we can sell, at what price, and when you get that contract in hand you can go to a Merrill Lynch, for example, to raise additional capital."

Raser was able to sign a 20-year PPA with the City of Anaheim for the electricity it is producing from its recently commissioned 10-MW Thermo geothermal power plant in Beaver County, Utah, a project area whose estimated resource base has been revised drastically upwards to 230 MW. As per the PPA, the electricity is priced US $78 per megawatt-hour, increasing 2% per year over its life. "There are no fuel costs, no risk of rising costs changing your economic model. That allows us to put in a capital structure profitably," Putnam commented.

The PPA gave the project a firm financial base, which helped in negotiating the 9.5%, 18-year non-recourse loan that funded construction. A production tax credit investment with an internal rate of return projected at 15% over the life of the tax credits-typically around ten years-was the final piece of the financing jigsaw puzzle.

As is the case with regard to tax equity, the financial crisis and recession are taking their toll on utilities' demand for PPAs as well. "Increasing rates have impacted the ability of renewable energy project developers to obtain valuable PPAs," Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Weil noted.

That's largely because it's "a mechanism by which ratepayers effectively finance development. The 30 states that have RPS's right now are willing to sign PPAs, but it's going to mean higher costs to consumers, and in a weakening economic environment there's only so much consumers can bear. So until the federal government requires renewable energy-- a federal RPS (Renewable Power Standard)-- that requires utilities to buy a percentage of their power from renewable sources, that's not likely to change much over the near term."

Looking ahead: Carbon prices and stimulus packages

Renewable energy industry participants are looking forward optimistically, and somewhat anxiously, at the renewable energy and clean technology initiatives included in President Obama's "American Recovery & Reinvestment Act." As things stand, project developers have a choice of taking a 10% investment tax credit or a $0.02 per kilowatt-hour production tax credit for a project's first ten years. President Obama's new bill proposes to increase the ITC to 30%.

"Investment tax credits are easier to monetize as compared to production tax credits," Ormat's Bronicki explained. "There are ways to alleviate the pressure in the market by being able to monetize [credits] directly. Certain elements of the bill deal with being able to get cash rather than tax credits," she added.

A national RPS and emissions cap-and-trade system are other proposed elements of a national "green" economic plan. Referring to the latter, "that's the assumption of everybody in the industry -- we are counting on it; our assumption is that it will happen," Bronicki said, explaining that the Geothermal Energy Association is "trying to have their voice heard in Washington."

More broadly and fundamentally speaking, volatile energy prices and growing concerns about climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have fostered a heightened sense of consciousness on the part of businesses and individuals when it comes to the relative costs of energy resources, and the advantages of improved energy efficiency and conservation. "It's not one thing: you have the tax benefits, the RPS, which is very important and you have the environmental regulations...It's really a combination of all of them that will push renewables forward, and it's awareness that's driving that," Bronicki commented.

Raser's Putnam takes a similar view of things. "Tax credits, depreciation and depletion allowances generated by construction -- the key I think is being able to get an optimized capital structure for geothermal power plant construction. That and state tax credits are what is driving capital into this market, as well as RPSs, especially in states such as California with stringent, imminent standards to be met."

He also sees a growing need for energy despite the shrinking economy. "Demand for electricity doesn't necessarily go down in a recession, maybe in sectors like the auto industry, where demand has fallen dramatically. Yet at same time overall demand is increasing or there's minimal decline. On the other side of ledger there's a fairly bold decommissioning of old power plants. We are in a deficit right now in terms of meeting electricity demands," he said.

Putnam also said that Raser will look to take advantage of any of the shovel-ready" "green" initiatives proposed by the Obama administration and passed into law by Congress. "The country is going through a very tough economic time. If there are opportunities to get people back in the workforce, develop renewable resources to reduce carbon emissions and reduce dependence on foreign oil, these are very strategic goals not only in terms of revitalizing the economy, but enhancing environmental and national security."


This article was originally published by Renewable Energy World.

[R-BgO]

Die Branche wird internationaler:

rein: 2xTaiwan, 1xJapan, 1xDeutschland
raus: 3xDeutschland, 1xChina


Aachen/Wien, 2.3.09 (photon/oeko-invest):
In den internationalen PHOTON Photovoltaik-Aktien Index (PPVX) wurden Anfang März wurden die vier Titel Green Energy Technology (Taiwan, TW0003519005), NPC Inc. (Japan, JP3165840004), Phoenix Solar AG (DE000A0BVU93) und Sino-American Silicon Products (Taiwan, ISIN TW0005483002) neu aufgenommen. Heraus fielen (wegen des inzwischen zu geringen Streubesitzes) die deutsche ErSol Solar Energy AG sowie die drei mit einem Börsenwert von jeweils unter 120 Millionen Euro kleinsten Firmen, die chinesische Canadian Solar und die beiden deutschen Titel Manz Automation AG und Solon SE.
Die 30 PPVX-Firmen, die zwischen rund 131 Millionen Euro (Renesola) und rund 6,8 Milliarden Euro (First Solar) wert sind, haben ihren Sitz in China (8), Deutschland (7), Taiwan (5), USA (5), Großbritannien (1), Japan (1), Norwegen (1), Schweiz (1) und Spanien (1). Die Gewichtung der neuen vier Aktien im Index beträgt derzeit jeweils rund 6,6 Prozent, entsprechend der Gewichtungsklasse 3 (Marktkapitalisierung zwischen 200 und 800 Millionen Euro).

Die Green Energy Technology (www.getinc.com.tw) produziert hauptsächlich multikristalline Silizium-Wafer (Umsatzanteil über 80 Prozent im Jahr 2007) und gehört mit einem Umsatz von TWD 5,04 Milliarden im Jahr 2007 (114 Millionen Euro, +150 Prozent, Nettomarge 12,4 Prozent) zu den grössten Wafer-Produzenten in Taiwan.

Die seit Mitte 2007 (IPO-Preis: 3.200 Yen) an der Börse Tokio notierte NPC (www.npcgroup.net) stellt neben Vakuumverpackungsmaschinen vor allem Maschinen zur Produktion von Solarmodulen und -batterien her. Im Geschäftsjahr 2007/8) erzielte NPC bei einem Umsatz von 9,25 Milliarden Yen (74 Millionen Euro, +43 Prozent) einen Konzerngewinn von 1,35 Milliarden Yen (10,8 Millionen Euro, +98 Prozent) erzielt.

Die Phoenix Solar AG (www.phoenixsolar.de) projektiert grosse PV-Kraftwerke unter anderem in Deutschland, Spanien und Italien. Das Management erwartet für das Geschäftsjahr 2009 einen Konzernumsatz von rund 520 Millionen Euro (2006 waren es 260 Millionen Euro, 2008 fast die Hälfte mehr). Die Aktie war bereits mehrmals im PPVX, fiel aber – zuletzt Mitte 2008 anlässlich des Börsengangs von GT Solar International mit einem Börsenwert von 277 Millionen – jeweils als kleinster Titel heraus.

Die 1981 gegründete und seit 2001 in Taiwan (OTC) gelistete Firma Sino-American Silicon Products (www.saswafer.com) entwickelt und produziert mit über 1.400 Mitarbeitern u.a. Wafer und Ingots für die PV-Industrie (Umsatzanteil 71 Prozent). 2007 stieg der Umsatz um 58 Prozent auf TWD 6,7 Milliarden (151 Millionen Euro), der Gewinn um 103 Prozent auf TWD 1,8 Milliarden (41 Millionen Euro).
Mit Marktkapitalisierungen zwischen 201 Millionen und 333 Millionen Euro liegen die vier neuen PPVX-Unternehmen im Mittelfeld – acht Unternehmen haben derzeit Börsenwerte von unter 200 Millionen Euro – des Indexes, dessen Volumen sich seit Anfang 2004 von rund 0,4 Milliarden Euro auf rund 23 Milliarden Euro erhöht hat.

[Istanbul]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.679.020 von lieberlong am 02.03.09 10:16:59

Bei roundabout $0.50 Modulproduktionskosten sind wir damit aktuell bei Modulpreisen von 2,00€. Geht also doch.

Und bei Silizium ist immer noch mindestens 75$/kg Luft drin ...

[R-BgO]

Zwei sehr interessante Deals gestern:

1) Firstsolar kauft Optisolar Projektportfolio; ist letzlich eine Abwicklung von Opti

2) Fotowatio kauft MMA Renewables; GE ist bei den Spaniern beteiligt und MuniMae hat wohl derzeit andere Sorgen




Siehe auch diese Meldung:

Spanish Solar Company To Become One Of Largest In USA

The 14-megawatt solar plant at Nellis AFB in Nevada
by Staff Writers
Madrid, Spain (SPX) Mar 03, 2009
Fotowatio has agreed to purchase the core US solar power assets - including the largest US solar photovoltaic installation, at Nellis Air Force base - of San Francisco-based MMA Renewable Ventures.

Upon completion of the sale, Fotowatio's US business unit, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures, will be one of the largest solar development companies in the United States as measured by megawatts in operation. Fotowatio will own 35 megawatts of solar projects in operation and more than 400 megawatts in development in the United States, and will gain one of the country's most experienced solar development and operations teams.

In addition to the 14-megawatt project at Nellis Air Force base in Nevada, the US-wide portfolio will include the nation's most visible solar array - at Denver International Airport - the world's largest thin film solar installation using CIGS technology - in Arizona - solar panels on the roofs of Colorado parking garages and solar arrays that power a California rice farm.

"This acquisition will significantly expand Fotowatio's portfolio, allowing us to meet our aggressive growth targets earlier than anticipated," said Rafael Benjumea, CEO of Fotowatio. "With the addition of MMA's assets and talented development team, we will be poised to expand in fast-growing markets in the United States, Spain and Italy."

Fotowatio has invested more than US$880 million (700 million euros) in solar projects since 2006 and plans to invest up to US$3.2 billion (2.5 billion euros) by 2012 in Spain, Italy and the United States.

Following completion of the acquisition of MMA Renewable Ventures, Fotowatio's global portfolio will include more than 130 megawatts of operating solar projects in the United States and Spain and more than 1,000 megawatts under development across the United States, Spain and Italy.

With no fuel cost or emissions, Fotowatio's expanded portfolio will produce clean energy and avoid more than two million tons a year in greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional fossil fuel technology.

"Fotowatio is a company of the highest quality and together with our team we are now poised to dramatically grow our US solar portfolio," said Matthew Cheney, Chief Executive Officer of MMA Renewable Ventures.

Fotowatio's US business unit will focus exclusively on the development of commercial- and utility-scale solar projects throughout the United States. As an independent solar power producer, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures will develop, own and operate solar power plants and provide clean electricity to its customers under long-term contracts.

"This acquisition will make Fotowatio one of the largest solar companies in the rapidly growing US market, underscoring the company's strong leadership and business development skills," said Inigo Olaguibel, a member of Fotowatio's Board of Directors.

Fotowatio's purchase of MMA Renewable Ventures' solar platform is its third in the past seven months. In January 2009, Fotowatio acquired a 6.3 MW solar project in Spain from Solaria. In September 2008, Fotowatio acquired from Corporacion Gestamp four solar photovoltaic power plants producing 32 megawatts in Spain.

Fotowatio's shareholders include Qualitas Venture Capital (33.5%), GE (NYSE:GE - News) unit GE Energy Financial Services (32%), Grupo Corporativo Landon (17.5%) and the management team (17%).

[peekey]

Im Trina Solar CC wurde vom Management gesagt, dass man den USA-Markt 2009 mit etwa 800 Mwp sehe. Der eigentliche Take-off beginnt dann frühestens 2010.

Japan dürfte auch extrem schnell wachsen, wenn ich mir die jüngste Gesetzgebung anschaue, aber wohl erst 2010 oder später.

also eigentlich sieht alles weiterhin nach Überkapazität in 2009 aus. Modulpreise von 2,80-2,90 USD/Watt soll es in q1 schon geben (lt. Trina). Etwa 30% der Trinaverkäufe sollen nach Dtld gehen, 25% nach Italien, 15% Spanien.. 2,80 USD enstprechen etwa 2,25 EUR. Preise ab Fabrik, was dann beim deutschen Kunden ankommt, weiss ich nicht genau. Vielleicht etwa 2,50 EUR/Watt?

ich sehe jedenfalls massive Preiskämpfe auch in Dtld. Wenn Trina hier mit 2,50 EUR/Wp um die Ecke kommt, was sollen dann bitte SOLON und ALEO machen? Mehr als 10-15% Preispremium für deutsche Module kann ich mir einfach nicht vorstellen...

[R-BgO]

mal eine andere Stimme zum Markt, als immer nur PHOTON-Consulting: neue Studie von GTM

"Key PV Demand Insights:

* Module average selling prices will fall below $2.50 per Watt in 2009 and $2.00 per Watt in 2010 as demand-side financing pressures force manufacturers to cut prices.
* Market problems in Germany and Spain and the global recession's impact on lending, project finance, and government budgets will grow demand by only 13 percent to 5 GW in 2009. This will be the industry's weakest growth year since 1994.
* Industry market size will contract 15 percent to $12 billion in 2009, and will remain relatively flat through 2012. Module manufacturers able to retain margins and sell products generating high internal rates of return for project developers will gain an increasingly large share of this shrinking pool of capital.
* An industry dominated by Asian multicrystalline and CIGS – with solid market share for CdTe and Super monocrystalline – will emerge in the near-term. Significantly, by 2012 we forecast thin-film modules will comprise 50 percent of incremental demand.
* The emergence of grid parity in some price-sensitive markets as early as 2009 will place a new emphasis on levelized cost of energy and delivered $/kWh as the guiding metric of a manufacturer's competitiveness."

[R-BgO]

es geht weiter...:

Spot market prices of poly-Si expected to fall to US$100/kg in mid-March


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Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Thursday 5 March 2009]

Spot market prices for solar-grade polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) are expected to drop from US$120-125/kg currently to as low as US$100/kg in the middle of March 2009, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Japan-based international suppliers of poly-Si are willing to lower their quotes in the spot market, and this will push Europe-based and US-based fellow suppliers to follow suit, the sources pointed out. As a result, there have been a few transactions in the spot market for poly-Si at US$100-105/kg, the sources indicated. In mid-March, prices are expected to slip to US$100/kg, the sources added.

Motech Industries and Neo Solar Power, two Taiwan-based makers of crystalline silicon solar cells, are negotiating procurement of poly-Si at US$100/kg in the spot market, according to the companies. E-Ton Solar Tech, another Taiwan-based fellow maker, indicated its contract supply price for poly-Si is about the same as the expected low end of spot market price ranges in the near future.

[bossi1]

Citi - Das sind doch die netten Shorties mit dem 43€ Kursziel bei Solarworld.
Hier sagt man ihren US-Boys was Sache ist auf dem Markt ...


March 6, 2009, 2:36 pm
Still Too Early To Buy Solar Stocks, Citi Says


Posted by Eric Savitz
For the solar industry, there is good news and bad news about the demand picture.

In 2009, Citigroup’s Timothy Arcuri observes in a research note today, global demand is likely to sink to 5 GW, from 5.3 GW in 2008. But driven by a growing pipeline of utility-scale projects and aided by government stimulus programs, he thinks the total will jump up to 7.6 GW in 2010 and 9.6 GW in 2011. But Arcuri cautions that at the moment there is about 4 GW of product in the supply chain, or about 10-12 months of current demand. He says production cuts are still not keeping up with inventory build, and contends that long-term polysilicon and wafer supply agreements are preventing a more efficient response from suppliers.

Arcuri also thinks that spot poly prices are little misleading; the price has stabilized in the $100-$110/kg range over the past 6-8 weeks he says. Some observers, he contends, have concluded that the worst is over. But Arcuri contends “it gets worse” from here, with suppliers willing to take move inventory risk rather than allowing spot prices to collapse.

“Putting it all together,” he says, “the issue is that inventory is bloated, demand is flat at best and cell/module providers have been loath to cut production thus far.” He says production numbers for this year are about 2x where he sees installations, and that “production must be cut much more aggressively.” He says it is clear that the inventory problem will get worse before it gets better - and that you can’t make a broadly bullish call on the stocks until inventories peak. ... also nicht long, sondern short soll ihre Meute gehen


Along the same lines, Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson wrote a note today on his recent visit to the Photon solar conference in Germany. His conclusion is that “deterioration in sentiment among German solar PV professionals suggest the intermediate-term outlook is weakening.” Like Arcuri, he think the increasing will shrink this year. But he notes that on an aggregated basis the top 10 PV module companies are projecting shipment growth this year of 79%. He thinks all of them are being too optimistic. Johnson adds that project financing conditions remain bleak for utility and commercial scale projects, although he adds that funding appears to be improving for residential markets.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2009/03/06/still-to…

[peekey]

ACT feed-in tariff to benefit Canberra’s solar industry
PV Tech - www.pv-tech.org

ACT FlagThe Australian Federal Government has initiated a new feed-in tariff in the ACT (Australian Capital Territories) that will ensure homeowners in the region will receive a premium of 3.88 times the current market rate for their solar-generated electricity for 20 years. The new ACT scheme will pay between 50.05c/kWh for electricity produced by grid connected solar systems up to 10kW and 40.04c/kWh for systems up to 30kW capacity.

This news is a major boon for the ACT region, as compared to other regions where there is a significantly lower rebate, or none at all.

Australia’s Energy Matters site points out that there is a major difference between ACT’s program and others. This particular feed-in tariff program is based on a gross model, under the terms of which all electricity generated benefits from the premium rate. In other states, the net model applies, whereby only electricity generated surplus to the consumption of the particular building being supplied is eligible for the rebate.

Systems over 30kW capacity will have to wait for the government to decide on a tariff system. The Energy Matters report explains that even though the Council Of Australian Governments (COAG) met to discuss the matter of establishing a nationwide feed-in tariff program only a few months ago, it seems there has been little development of the issue since the meeting.

Political group the ACT Greens have stated their intention to lobby on the part of legislation and benefits to encourage medium- and large-scale solar power plant development in the region.
http://www.pv-tech.org/lib/printable/4781/



wenn das nur auf ganz Australien ausgedehnt würde, würde dies einen Boom dort auslösen...

[peekey]

hab ich netz gefunden, interessante preise....


1. Angebot:
12,6 kWp Suntech Power, STP 180S-24/AC mit 180 Wp
2 Wechselrichter SMA, Typ SB 4000 TL-20 sowie 1 Wechselrichter Typ SB 3300 TL HC
Komplettpreis mit Montage wäre 3.610,- EUR pro kWp

[R-BgO]

Korea emerged as fourth largest market worldwide in 2008, says Displaybank

Posted by Debasish Choudhury on 06 March 2009 at 10:30

Korea's 2008 PV facility installation volume had increased six fold and accounted for the fourth largest market worldwide, according to Displaybank, a market research company specialized in the photovoltaic and display industries.

According to Displaybank, Korea had a 274MW total installed and accounted for the fourth largest market. Spain accounted for the largest market (2,281MW), followed by Germany (1,532MW) and the US (333MW).

Displaybank said the total 2008 global PV facility installation volume was 5.5GW which represented about US$21 billion. This corresponds to 2.3 times of the total 2007 installation volume which was about 2.4GW.

Supported by a government subsidy policy, Spain showed the largest PV installation volume worldwide in 2008. However, the country is projected to record a radical decline in its installation volume in 2009 compared to 2008, as the support limit is reduced to 500MW.

For Korea, the total volume of solar cell produced by Korean solar cell makers in 2008 was only about 60MW, according to Kenny Kim, vice-president at Displaybank. Most of Korea's installation volume, 274MW, was imported from Europe, US and Japan.

Last update: 06 March 2009 at 10:30

[R-BgO]

German/European investment in solar power delivers market leadership PDF Print E-mail


Posted by Heather Lackey on 03 March 2009 at 15:33

“We (the United States) invented solar technology, but we've fallen behind countries like Germany and Japan in producing it,” said Barack Obama, in his address to a joint session of the U.S. congress last week.Indeed, these nations have moved ahead of the United States, with Germany holding the lead in this fast-growing alternative energy market due the nation’s and Europe’s long-term commitment to solar power, according to iSuppli Corp.

“Europe’s early and enthusiastic embrace of solar energy is paying off, with the region leading in production of Photovoltaic (PV) cells, potentially paving the way for a 300 billion euro savings in electricity costs,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for photovoltaics at iSuppli. “European companies supplied 27.4 percent of global PV cells in terms of wattage in 2008, allowing it to slightly exceed China’s total of 25.8 percent, and handily surpassing Japan at 16.2 percent and the United States at 13.7 percent.”

“Beyond leading in the production of PV cells, Europe is by far the world’s largest market for solar installations,” Wicht added. “This hasn’t happened by accident, as European governments, research institutions and industry players during the last two decades have worked in close coordination to reach this point.”

The underlying driver for this effort was a desire to wean the European economies off hydrocarbon-based electricity sources while creating jobs and establishing a new industry capable of competing on the global stage.

During 2008, more than 80 percent of new worldwide PV capacity was installed in Europe. Germany and Spain accounted for 84 percent of Europe’s installed PV capacity during the year.

Feeding solar demand
As the Obama administration considers how to boost the U.S. solar market, it may want to look at the main factor behind Europe’s leadership in this area: feed-in-tariffs. Feed-in-tariffs are incentives that allow entities that feed the grid with solar energy to receive premium pricing, thus making the Return On Investment (ROI) on PV installations more attractive.

These incentives are starting to slow somewhat in 2009, especially in Spain’s case. However, they have successfully served their purpose of driving down prices by building a large-scale, competitive PV supply chain, according to Wicht.

Energy week
During this month’s Sustainable Energy Week event in Brussels, the EU Commission presented the Strategic European Technology Plan for Renewable Energy. Solar plays a strategic part of the plan and it will generate 15 percent—12 percent by PV electricity and 3 percent by concentrating solar thermal systems—of the region’s electricity demand by 2020.

To support its member states in achieving these binding targets, the EU Commission is fostering public/private partnerships to more quickly deploy solar energy. Large solar power plants, urban integration—i.e. solar cities—and transnational rural electrification will help accelerate solar energy deployments.

Deployment difficulties
While rapidly decreasing prices make solar more economically attractive in many countries, deployment may become the real bottleneck. To achieve the goal of 12 percent PV solar energy supply, several things must change, according to Anton Milner, chief executive officer of Q-Cells, and spokesman of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA). These changes are:

* Grid management must be capable of accommodating a large supply of solar power during the daytime.
* Efficient storage solutions must be developed.
* Governments must foster utility companies to prepare for greater solar energy production.
* Milner and his team estimate that Europe will save up to 300 billion euros by switching to 12 percent of PV solar power by 2020. Cost savings will be due to the fact that solar installations are cheaper than any nuclear or coal facility and that the fuel for PV systems—i.e. sunshine—is free.


Shining bright
The world’s top producer of PV cells in 2008 was Q-Cells of Germany. REC of Norway is another large global player and perhaps the most vertically integrated because it supplies everything, from the polysilicon raw material, to cell and module manufacturing, to system installation services. SolarWorld of Germany and BP Solar of the United Kingdom are examples of European cell/module producers that have sought to leverage their success in Europe and have invested in the emerging U.S. market to try and to take advantage of invigorated government incentives there.
As PV demand expands around the world in the coming years, iSuppli expects European companies will continue to play a major role.

[R-BgO]

09 Mar 2009
China / Solar
Chinese and Taiwanese solar cell prices fall 20% since early 2009

Spot prices for PV cells in China and Taiwan have fallen by 20% on average since the start of 2009 to below USD 2 per watt as demand dropped faster than output.

Reports have indicated that prices for PV cells in Taiwan and China have fallen from USD 2.1 to USD 2.2 per watt to as low as USD 1.7 per watt. Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua cites a report by Jianyin Investment Securities that all but 50 of the country’s PV companies are expected to survived the economic downturn as prices continue to fall. This has fuelled speculation that the Chinese government will help mergers of PV manufacturer to quicken industry consolidation. This newly minted buyer’s market is of little benefit to Greater China's PV players who export most of their PV products. About 98% of China’s PV products are exported, so slackening of demand from ...

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.731.420 von R-BgO am 09.03.09 19:02:04

meinolf67 (Mitgliedschaft durch User beendet)

[bossi1]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.738.472 von lieberlong am 10.03.09 16:46:52

[king_of_fools]

Quelle: http://solarserver.de/solarmagazin/news.html#topbanner

Neue Studie zur Bereinigung des globalen Photovoltaik-Marktes erwartet deutlich sinkende Modulpreise und 50 % Dünnschicht-Anteil bis 2012


"SunFab" Dünnschicht-Produktionslinie bei
Green Energy Technology (Taiwan).


Das Marktforschungsinstitut Greentech Media (Cambridge, Massachusetts; USA / München) analysiert in der Untersuchung "2009 global PV demand analysis and forecast: the anatomy of a shakeout" den Wandel vom Anbieter zum Käufermarkt und dessen Folgen. Im günstigsten Fall (Basisszenario) gehen die Marktforscher von einem globalen Photovoltaik-Wachstum von 13 % im Jahr 2009 aus, was einem Zubau von 5.091 Megawatt entspräche. Die konservative Prognose des "downside economic Szenario" hingegen erwartet dieses Jahr einen um ein Prozent schrumpfenden Weltmarkt von 4.447 MW. Gewinner der Marktbereinigung wird laut Greentech Media mittelfristig die Dünnschicht-Technologie sein, die bis 2012 einen Marktanteil von 50 erreichen könnte. Neben dem Basisszenario entwickelten die Autoren, darunter Travis Bradford, Gründer des renommierten Prometheus Instituts (Chicago) ein integriertes Modell, das die vielfältigen Beziehungen und Variablen des komplexen weltweiten PV-Marktes hinsichtlich Angebot und Nachfrage verbindet und analysiert.


Modulpreis pro Watt wird 2010 unter die 2 Dollar-Marke fallen

Aufgrund des Überangebots auf dem Weltmarkt erwartet Greentech Media, dass der durchschnittliche Modulpreis pro Watt im laufenden Jahr unter 2,5 US-Dollar fällt und im Jahr 2010 unter der 2 Dollar-Marke liegen wird. Die Marktforscher erwarten 2009 zudem einen globalen Umsatzrückgang um 15 %: von 14 Milliarden US-Dollar auf 12 Milliarden. In den folgenden Jahren bis 2012 rechnet Greentech Media jeweils mit einem durchschnittlichen Wachstum um ein Prozent.


Dünnschicht soll noch schneller wachsen als erwartet

In einem kostensensitiven Markt, in dem Projektentwickler sich auf eine rasche Amortisation konzentrieren, können sich Dünnschichtmodule immer besser gegen Module mit weniger günstigem Preis-Leistungsverhältnis behaupten und bereits 2012 die Hälfte des Weltmarkts erobern. Bislang waren Studien lediglich davon ausgegangen, dass der Marktanteil der Dünnschichtmodule bis 2010 auf 20 bis 25 Prozent steigen könnte. Doch nicht alle Dünnschicht-Varianten können gleichermaßen punkten: Module auf der Grundlage von Cadmiumtellurid (CdTe) beziehungsweise auf Basis von Kupfer, Indium, Gallium und Selen (CIGS) werden laut Greentech Media Module aus amorphem Silizium verdrängen, aber nicht vollständig ersetzen.


Netzparität in preissensiblen Märkten bereits in diesem Jahr

In besonders preissensitiven Märkten erwartet Greentech Media schon im laufenden Jahr die so genannte Grid Parity (Gleichheit der Kosten von Solarstrom und Strombezugskosten der Endkunden), welche von mehreren Faktoren abhängt, zum Beispiel die Modultechnologie, das Projektdesign, der Strompreis und der Standort. Die Untersuchung rechnet damit, dass die Netzparität in Deutschland und weiteren Ländern mit Solar-Förderung 2011 oder 2012 erreicht wird. Am schnellsten wird die Grid Parity laut Analyse mit Modulen aus kristallinem Silizium auf japanischen Dächern und bei kommerziellen Dünnschicht-Dächern in Kalifornien erreicht werden.


Über Greentech Media

Greentech Media ist ein integriertes Medien- und Marktforschungsunternehmen im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien. Die Solaranalysten publizieren unter GTM Research umfassende und datenreiche Marktberichte zu aktuellen Themen, welche die Branche bewegen. Die Marktforscher arbeiten eng mit dem Prometheus Institut for Sustainable Development und dessen bekannten Gründer, Travis Bradford, zusammen. Das Prometheus-Institut ist mit fast 30 Jahren Erfahrung in der Marktforschung zur Solarenergie das bekannteste und am meisten geschätzte Forschungsinstitut, weit über Amerika hinaus. Neben monatlichen Veröffentlichungen wie z.B. dem PV-Newsletter werden laufend neue Forschungsberichte zu aktuellen Themen der Solarbranche veröffentlicht.

Japan? Habt ihr für Japan mehr Informationen als ich? Ich dachte dort währen die Energiepreise (deutlich) niedriger als in Deutschland. Italien haben sie nicht auf dem Radar.

[peekey]

In einem kostensensitiven Markt, in dem Projektentwickler sich auf eine rasche Amortisation konzentrieren, können sich Dünnschichtmodule immer besser gegen Module mit weniger günstigem Preis-Leistungsverhältnis behaupten und bereits 2012 die Hälfte des Weltmarkts erobern. Bislang waren Studien lediglich davon ausgegangen, dass der Marktanteil der Dünnschichtmodule bis 2010 auf 20 bis 25 Prozent steigen könnte.

1. die Solaranalysten aus dem Prometheus Instsitut lagen in der Vergangenheit immer deftig daneben.

2) soll mir mal jemand erklären, wie Dünnschichtmodule wettbewerbsfähig sein sollen, wenn durch rasant fallende Siliziumpreise kristalline Module zu 2-2,50 USD/Watt verfügbar werden? ich schätze, dass bei 10-12% Wirkungsgrad Dünnschichtmodule maximal 1,30-1,50 USD/Wp kosten dürfen. Welche Dünnschichtunternehmen können dabei noch profitabel sein? First Solar mit Sicherheit, aber wer noch?
ich denke, dass die Dünnschichthersteller bei diesen kristallinen Modulpreisen massiv unter Druck geraten. Ich kann als die obige Argumentation in keinster Weise nachvollziehen.

[lieberlong]

Einspeisegesetz in Australien

Andreas Witt in Solarthemen, Politik, am 14. März 2009

Im Bereich des Capital Territory, also nicht in ganz Australien, gibt es seit dem 1. März spezielle Einspeisetarife für Solar- und Windstrom, die für einen Zeitraum von 20 Jahren ab Inbetriebnahme garantiert werden. Umgerechnet ca. 26 Euro-Cent/kWh zahlt der Stromversorger für Anlagen von Privat- und Gewerbeimmobilien. Die Anlagen dürfen maximal 10 kW Leistung aufweisen. Die Vergütung sinkt für Anlagen von 10 bis 30 kW auf rund 22 Cent. Ein Vergütungsmodell für größere Anlagen soll zum 1. Juni 2009 kommen.

http://www.solarthemen.de/?p=2642

[R-BgO]

March 16, 2009

San Francisco, CA, USA: Solarbuzz Reports World Solar Photovoltaic Market Grew to 5.95 Gigawatts in 2008

World solar photovoltaic (PV) market installations reached a record high of 5.95 gigawatts (GW) in 2008, representing growth of 110% over the previous year, according to the annual PV market report issued today by Solarbuzz LLC, the San Francisco-based solar energy consultancy.

Europe accounted for 82% of world demand in 2008. Spain's 285% growth pushed Germany into second place in the market ranking, while the US advanced to number three. Rapid growth in Korea made it the fourth largest market in 2008, closely followed by Italy and Japan.

World solar cell production reached a consolidated figure of 6.85 GW in 2008, up from 3.44 GW a year earlier. China and Taiwan increased their share of global solar cell production to 44% in 2008, rising from 35% in 2007. Meanwhile, thin film production grew 123% to 0.89 GW.

Polysilicon supply to the solar industry grew by 127% in megawatt terms, sufficient to substantially ease supply limitations in 2008.

The PV industry generated $37.1 billion in global revenues in 2008, while successfully raising over $12.5 billion in equity and debt, up 11% on the prior year.

"Twelve months ago, we projected that as early as the fourth quarter of 2008 the PV industry would no longer be constrained by solar module supply, but instead by market demand," said Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz LLC. "Now, the PV industry will need to navigate major changes in the regional demand mix, with new markets emerging, while addressing excess supply positions and significant adjustments to industry pricing."

This year's forecast data and outcomes for 2009-2013 are set out in the new 300+ page Marketbuzz™ 2009 report.

The PV industry's principal annual report provides in-depth and insightful analysis of global market demand, supply capacity and production, pricing through the PV chain, manufacturing costs and gross margins, capital expenditure together with a focus on the key industry, corporate and policy challenges.

[R-BgO]

SI-shipments according to SEMI:

[R-BgO]

Four China poly-Si makers to play key role in domestic market, sources say


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 10 March 2009]

Four China-based producers of solar-grade polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) are expected to become market leaders in the domestic market, judging from their product quality and their expansion plans, according to industry sources in Taiwan. The four suppliers are Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development, Luoyang Zhonggui High-Technology, Sichuan Xinguang Silicon Sci-Tech and Daqo Solar, the sources said.

They are now offering poly-Si at spot prices of US$90-120/kg, lower than US$120-130/kg quoted by international suppliers, the sources said. However, almost all of the four suppliers' clients are China-based makers of poly-Si ingots/wafers or solar cells who have had difficulties securing supply from international suppliers, the sources noted.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.772.356 von R-BgO am 16.03.09 10:02:47

Spanien wird dabei mit 2,46 GW angegeben. Nach dem, was man so liest, dürften das 1 bis 2 GW zu wenig sein. Die Gesamtmodulmenge der Welt beliefe sich dann wohl eher auf 7 bis 8 GW. Ich frag mich nur, wo dafür das ganze Silizium hergekommen sein soll (das müssten bei 7 GW ja mehr als 60.000 Tonnen nur für PV gewesen sein...). Also irgendwie passen hier einige Zahlen noch nicht so wirklich zusammen imho.

[R-BgO]

March 16, 2009, 5:44 pm
Solar Project Applications In California Collapsing
Posted by Eric Savitz

In case you needed more evidence of the troubles now plaguing the solar industry, take a look at the collapse in the number of applications Californians have filed for new residential solar installations under the state’s California Solar Initaitive program.

Data from the site shows that new applications were running over 1,000 a month for the last five months of 2008, but have since taken a tumble: 608 in January, and 646 in February. And March is shaping up to be even worse, with just 188 applications received through March 11.

The San Jose Mercury News on Saturday took a look at the numbers and concluded that “solar power’s prospects appear to be dimming, at least for the near term…as homeowners and business owners struggle to get credit and rein in spending on big-ticket items such as a rooftop full of solar panels.”

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.780.876 von R-BgO am 17.03.09 10:08:10

Die Grafik schaut echt schaurig aus...:

http://californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/reports/3-11-2009/Ap…

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.780.965 von R-BgO am 17.03.09 10:17:30

und in MW ist's noch schlimmer:

http://californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/reports/3-11-2009/Ca…

[a_bit_fishy]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.780.965 von R-BgO am 17.03.09 10:17:30

Versteh ich jetzt nicht. Die grafik ist vom 11.3., folglich können auch noch nicht alle installationen von 03 angeführt sein.
Oder hast du etwas anderes gemeint ?

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.781.212 von a_bit_fishy am 17.03.09 10:46:41

Einwand ist korrekt.

Sorry, war zu oberflächlich.

[R-BgO]

DAS Argument gegen "concentrated systems" kannte ich nich nicht:

Atmospheric Sunshade Could Reduce Solar Power Generation

The world's largest solar power facility, located near Kramer Junction, Calif., consists of five Solar Electric Generating Stations and covers more than 1,000 acres. (Credit: Department of Energy/National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Mar 17, 2009
The concept of delaying global warming by adding particles into the upper atmosphere to cool the climate could unintentionally reduce peak electricity generated by large solar power plants by as much as one-fifth, according to a new NOAA study.

The findings appear in the journal Environmental Science and Technology.

"Injecting particles into the stratosphere could have unintended consequences for one alternative energy source expected to play a role in the transition away from fossil fuels," said author Daniel Murphy, a scientist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

The Earth is heating up as fossil-fuel burning produces carbon dioxide, the primary heat-trapping gas responsible for man-made climate change. To counteract the effect, some geoengineering proposals are designed to slow global warming by shading the Earth from sunlight.

Among the ideas being explored is injecting small particles into the upper atmosphere to produce a climate cooling similar to that of large volcanic eruptions, such as Mt. Pinatubo's in 1991. Airborne sulfur hovering in the stratosphere cooled the Earth for about two years following that eruption.

Murphy found that particles in the stratosphere reduce the amount and change the nature of the sunlight that strikes the Earth. Though a fraction of the incoming sunlight bounces back to space (the cooling effect), a much larger amount becomes diffuse, or scattered, light.

On average, for every watt of sunlight the particles reflect away from the Earth, another three watts of direct sunlight are converted to diffuse sunlight. Large power-generating solar plants that concentrate sunlight for maximum efficiency depend solely on direct sunlight and cannot use diffuse light.

Murphy verified his calculations using long-term NOAA observations of direct and diffuse sunlight before and after the 1991 eruption.

After the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, peak power output of Solar Electric Generating Stations in California, the largest collective of solar power plants in the world, fell by up to 20 percent, even though the stratospheric particles from the eruption reduced total sunlight that year by less than 3 percent.

"The sensitivity of concentrating solar systems to stratospheric particles may seem surprising," said Murphy. "But because these systems use only direct sunlight, increasing stratospheric particles has a disproportionately large effect on them."

Nine Solar Electric Generating Stations operate in California and more are running or are under construction elsewhere in the world. In sunny locations such systems, which use curved mirrors or other concentrating devices, generate electricity at a lower cost than conventional photovoltaic, or solar, cells.

Flat photovoltaic and hot water panels, commonly seen on household roofs, use both diffuse and direct sunlight. Their energy output would decline much less than that from concentrating systems.

Even low-tech measures to balance a home's energy, such as south-facing windows for winter heat and overhangs for summer shade, would be less effective if direct sunlight is reduced.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

[lieberlong]

17.03.2009 19:07
Japan plans measures to boost solar cells-Nikkei

NEW YORK, March 17 - The Japanese government will unveil on Wednesday plans to help the nation recapture more of the global solar cell market, the financial daily Nikkei said in its Wednesday edition.

Nikkei said a report prepared by a panel of officials from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and companies including Sharp Corp, Sanyo Electric Co Ltd and Tokyo Electric Power Co Inc will be presented at a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy.

The report will call for measures including government loans to help solar cell makers procure silicon and a program to reclaim silicon from discarded solar cells, Nikkei said. Japan is now entirely dependent on imports from China and elsewhere for silicon.

The paper said another proposal in the report would require power utilities to buy electricity produced by residential solar arrays at a rate of almost 50 yen (50.7 cents) per kilowatt hour, up from 24 yen now, for about 10 years.

It said the steps suggested in the report are designed to expand the domestic solar cell market to 10 trillion yen from 1 trillion, raise employment in the industry to about 110,000 from about 12,000 now, and boost Japan's global market share back over 33 percent.

In the first half of the decade, Japan produced about half the world's solar cells, and Sharp was the No. 1 global producer in 2005. But foreign companies have taken market share, shrinking Japan's to about 25 percent, and Sharp ranked second to Germany's Q-Cells SE by 2007.

($1=98.6502 yen)

(Reporting by Gerald E. McCormick; editing by Richard Chang) Keywords: JAPAN SOLAR/


COPYRIGHT


Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

[king_of_fools]

http://photon.de/news_archiv/details.aspx?cat=News_Archiv⊂=P…

Japan startet neues Förderprogramm


24.03.2009: Japan hat sein neues Förderprogramm für Photovoltaik eher gestartet als geplant – nämlich bereits am 13. Januar dieses Jahres. Ursprünglich sollte die Solarstromtechnik erst mit Beginn des neuen Haushaltsjahres im April wieder gefördert werden, nachdem das letzte Programm 2005 ausgelaufen war

Bis zum 31. März stehen erst einmal neun Milliarden Yen (78 Millionen Euro) bereit, die für die Installation von 35.000 Anlagen mit einer Gesamtleistung von 122,5 Megawatt ausreichen dürften. Noch einmal 20,05 Milliarden Yen (174 Millionen Euro) sollen ab April für ein Jahr zur Verfügung gestellt werden. Über das kommende Haushaltsjahr wird das Parlament im März berschließen, mögliche Änderungen sind daher bislang noch nicht abzusehen. Bleibt es bei den 20 Milliarden Yen, könnten nach unseren Schätzungen 280 Megawatt errichtet werden.

Dank seines 1994 gestarteten Subventionsprogramms führte Japan viele Jahre die Liste der Länder mit der höchsten installierten Leistung an, bis es die Spitzenreiterposition im Jahre 2004 an Deutschland verlor. Seit dem Auslaufen des alten Subventionsgesetzes verschwand Japan fast völlig von der Photovoltaiklandkarte: 2008 wurden nur schätzungsweise 180 Megawatt installiert – zwischen drei und vier Prozent der globalen Marktgröße.

[R-BgO]

Weiß jemand, was heute los ist?

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.856.900 von R-BgO am 26.03.09 18:04:12

Heute wurde von der chinesischen Regierung eine Meganews veröffentlicht. Laut einer Meldung des chinesischen Finanzministeriums sollen Großanlagen für die Herstellung von Solarstrom in China mit bis zu 20 Yuan/Watt subventioniert werden. Diese Förderung entspricht ungefähr den derzeitigen Produktionskosten von Solarzellen. Zwar sind wichtige Details des Programms noch nicht bekannt, aber es könnte bedeuten, dass die Solarmodule für die Betreiber von Solaranlagen praktisch kostenlos sind und dieser dann nur noch die Installationskosten tragen müssten. Diese Nachricht, die seit heute Nacht langsam nach Europa durchsickerte, wurde von den Investoren offensichtlich noch nicht verarbeitet.

Die Meldung führte zur Handelseröffnung in New York, wo ein Großteil der chinesischen Solarwerte als ADR gelistet ist, zu einem Kursfeuerwerk unter hohem Volumen. Trotzdem haben die Nachrichtenagenturen und Zeitungsverleger die Signifikanz dieser Meldung noch gar nicht verstanden. Entweder wartet man auf mehr Details oder man ist schlichtweg nicht in der Lage die News aus dem Chinesischen zu übersetzen?

Für uns ist dies jedenfalls ein weiteres Zeichen dafür, dass der weltweite Durchbruch der Solarindustrie – bislang war die Solarbranche auf einige wenige Märkte in Westeuropa beschränkt - unmittelbar bevorsteht. Davon werden in erster Linie die asiatischen Produzenten profitieren. Deren Produktionskosten sind tiefer und fallen schneller, als bei den westlichen Herstellern und dies führt dazu, dass die Asiaten in diesem Sektor den Weltmarkt aufrollen werden beziehungsweise schon dabei sind dies zu tun.

Chinas Solarbranche startet jetzt auch im Inland durch. Bereits am 25.03 wurde bekannt, dass Chinas Versorgerindustrie erstmals die Inlandsnutzung von Solarenergie in breitem Umfang vorantreiben wird. 18 Unternehmen, darunter die bekannten börsennotierten Solarzellenproduzenten Yingli Green Energy und Chinas größter Produzent Suntech Power werden an einem Bieterverfahren zum Aufbau einer 10 Megawattanlage im Nordwesten Chinas mitbieten. Die Preise, zu denen der Solarstrom in das Netz eingespeist werden sollte, könnte dabei bis auf 0,69 Yuan/kwh sinken. Dies entspricht etwa der Hälfte der bisherigen Kosten von außerchinesischen Produzenten. Analysten rätselten wie China diese niedrigen Kosten erreichen kann und man vermutete, dass dies durch technologische Verbesserungen und dem starken Rückgang der Siliziumpreise, die innerhalb eines Jahres von 400 US-Dollar auf 100 US-Dollar pro Pfund fielen und mehr als 50% de r Produktionskosten ausmachen, ermöglicht wurde. Bereits im Februar ging man deshalb davon aus, dass der Solarstrom im weltweit am schnellsten wachsenden Strommarkt China, schon 2012 und damit drei Jahre früher als geplant gegenüber anderen Stromquellen konkurrenzfähig sein wird. Durch die Subventionierung wird diese Konkurrenzfähigkeit weiter vorgezogen und China könnte bereits innerhalb von eins oder zwei Jahren bis zu 1/5 der weltweiten Produktion selbst verbrauchen.

Wohlgemerkt mit dieser Zusatznachfrage rechnete bis heute niemand, denn China exportierte bisher über 90% seiner Inlandsproduktion.

http://www.emfis.de/global/global/nachrichten/beitrag/id/EMF…

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.856.952 von lieberlong am 26.03.09 18:07:23

Scheint was dran zu sein:

Solarsektor vor Neubewertung - China startet Megainvestition: JA Solar, LDK Solar, ReneSola, Solarfun, Suntech Power, Trina Solar und Yingli Green zünden Kursfeuerwerk

Leon Müller

Die chinesische Regierung will Solarstrom mit 20 Yuan je Watt fördern. Bei den Unternehmen der Branche hat diese Meldung an der New Yorker Börse ein Kursfeuerwerk entfacht. Die Vorgaben für deutsche Werte wie Q-Cells, Solarworld & Co könnten besser nicht sein.

Nachdem die chinesische Regierung mit einer Sensationsmeldung aufwartete, brennen Aktien von Solarunternehmen in New York ein Kursfeuerwerk ab. Wie das chinesische Finanzministerium mitteilte, sollen Großanlagen für die Herstellung von Solarstrom in China mit bis zu 20 Yuan je Watt gefördert werden. Dabei entsprechen diese 20 Yuan je Watt gegenwärtig exakt dem Wert, der zur Abdeckung der Produktionskosten erforderlich ist. Nähere Details sind zwar noch nicht bekannt, aber sollten sich die Angaben als belastbar herausstellen, käme dies einer Sensation gleich. Schließlich müssten Betreiber von Solaranlagen lediglich die Installationskosten tragen. Die für den Betrieb solcher Anlage erforderlichen Solarmodule erhielten sie aufgrund der hohen Subventionierung umsonst. Ein Nachfrageboom wäre die logische Konsequenz.

Kurssprung bei US-Solaraktien

Die Nachricht hat bei den an der Wall Street gelisteten Solarunternehmen ein Kursfeuerwerk entfacht. Unter hohem Volumen legen die Papiere von Suntech Power 45,00 Prozent auf 11,36 Dollar zu. Die Anteilsscheine von Yingli Green Energy Holding verteuern sich um 36 Prozent auf 5,66 Dollar. JA Solar springen um 33,08 Prozent auf 3,54 Dollar in die Höhe und LDK Solar verbuchen einen Aufschlag in Höhe von 37,86 Prozent und notieren bei 8,12 Dollar. Das größte Plus kann Trina Solar mit 47,11 Prozent auf 12,74 Dollar ausweisen. Ebenfalls deutlich im Plus notieren die Aktien von ReneSola (+30,04 Prozent 3,42 Dollar) sowie Solarfun (+23,81 Prozent auf 4,42 Dollar).

Heißer Freitag auch in Deutschland

Angesichts der heftigen Kursausschläge bei Solaraktien an der New Yorker Börse könnten die Vorgaben für die Aktien deutscher Unternehmen wie Q-Cells und Solarworld nicht besser sein. Zwar haben die Aktien dieser beiden Konzerne in den zurückliegenden Tagen bereits deutlich an Wert zugelegt. Allerdings ist infolge der Subventionsoffensive in China damit zu rechnen, dass der gesamte Sektor neu bewertet werden muss.

http://www.deraktionaer.de/xist4c/web/Solarsektor--China--Me…

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.857.597 von lieberlong am 26.03.09 19:01:07

China sees the light with solar subsidy for large systems
PV Tech - www.pv-tech.org

The Chinese Treasury department has reviewed its solar program with the introduction of a new solar PV subsidy program. The move, which is a temporary measure, according to Barclays Capital Solar Energy, will offer 20RMB per Watt (~$2.90/W) incentives for systems of output greater than 50kW. The uncapped plan could prove to be a huge boon for Chinese solar companies such as Suntech, Yingli, Trina Solar and JA Solar.

China’s potential for growth in the market has risen with this news, given its significantly larger domestic manufacturing footprint and the obvious support from the government.

The Barclays report cites some projected figures for China’s market demand for the next four years:

“Our estimates currently assume 58MW/104MW/166MW/232MW demand from China in 2009/10/11/12 respectively. We believe meaningful upside potential exists if government support for domestic solar sector continues. We believe potential for ~200MW incremental demand impact exists from 2H09.”

The Barclays report also referred to a domestic incentive program, which will see the Treasury spur on the use of solar panels on roofs – most likely for both typical solar modules and BIPV. Further details on this aspect of the news are currently unavailable.


http://www.pv-tech.org/lib/printable/4972/

Published: 26 March 2009

[gagaga]

Jetzt erst über diesen Thread hier gestolpert: hier gehts ja richtig sittsam und informativ zu!

Kenne Meinolf als extrem gut informierten diskutanten von Conergy / Q-Cells.

@Meinolf, hast Du Dich tatsächlich abgeseilt?

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.856.952 von lieberlong am 26.03.09 18:07:23

Ja, die Chinesen und die Japaner mit ihrem MITI (einer der vorigen Beiträge) sind immer für grosse Programme gut.
Die genannte Höhe der Stromgestehungskosten (0,69 Yuan/kWh sind ca. 7 Euro-Cent pro kWh) können aber wohl nur als "Restkosten", wenn es die Module fast geschenkt geben sollte (bei 20 Yuan/W = ca. 2 Euro/W), erreicht werden. Andererseits haben in den letzten Jahren die Chinesen auch im Windsektor teilweise mit haarsträubend niedrigen Preisen hantiert... damals stellte sich im Nachhinein heraus, dass die Regierung eine Mindestquote an Renewables festlegte... da wollten dann alle (mehr oder weniger) staatlichen Kraftwerksbetreiber Windparks haben und der Strompreis war denen egal. Jetzt müsste man noch wissen, wieviel Geld denn insgesamt von den Chineses zur Verfügung gestellt wird.

Und der Hype bei allen Solaraktien dürfte wohl auch schon wieder vorbei sein. Aber nach der langen Zeit der Negativentwicklungen freut man sich natürlich mal über solche kurzfristigen Höhenflüge.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.873.208 von gagaga am 29.03.09 01:14:03

Jetzt erst über diesen Thread hier gestolpert:


Schade eigentlich. Wenn ich es recht erinnere, hatte Dich Meinolf so um den Juli 2008 herum sogar explizit hierher eingeladen. Aber Du hattest bei Q-Cells zu viel zu tun, wie Du damals (im Q-Cells-Thread) geschrieben hast...

Du und ich stehen der PV zwar vollkommen gegensätzlich gegenüber, aber als kompetenten und rationalen Diskutanten schätze ich Dich schon lange. Nur war der Q-Cells-Thread eben im Allgemeinen zum puren Müllabladeplatz verkommen. (PS: Glückwunsch zu Deinen Short-Erfolgen)

-------------

China: Dass da eine Reihe von Großprojekten laufen, das hatte sich ja schon seit dem Jahresanfang abgezeichnet - es gab mehrere Nachrichten zu Solarparkprojekten in China. Dabei war immer vollkommen klar, dass dafür im Hintergrund erhebliche staatliche Subventionen bereitstehen müssen. Im Suntech-Thread haben wir schon am 04. Januar vermutet, dass es um eine Rettungsaktion der chinesischen Regierung für die heimische PV-Industrie geht.

Jetzt sind zum ersten Mal ein paar konkretere Zahlen durchgesickert... Die Sache an sich und der "industriepolitische" Sinn dahinter ist dagegen überhaupt nicht neu imho.

Die Reaktion der Märkte auf diese "Nicht-Neuigkeit" ist für mich daher weitgehend unverständlich. Aber vielleicht wars auch nur der Zündfunke, um eine gewisse - und vielleicht auch überfällige - Korrektur der Aktienkurse der PV-Unternehmen anzustoßen.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.873.427 von SLGramann am 29.03.09 10:26:20

Noch eine Ergänzung zum "Zündfunken-Gedanken": Unabhängig von diesem China-Hype gibt es erste Anzeichen, dass das zweite und dritte Quartal vielleicht ein wenig besser laufen wird.

Vielleicht war der eine oder andere Shortie jetzt auch zu gierig geworden und musste jetzt, da der Markt vielleicht nicht mehr länger den fast kompletten Weltuntergang einpreisen will, plötzlich eindecken.


After several gloomy months, experts say that the stimulus package is beginning — just beginning — to revive interest in wind and solar power.

“I call this the green shoots period. We’re seeing new growth,” said Ron Kenedi, a vice-president of Sharp Solar, who noted that December, January and February had been “miserable.”

http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/26/seeds-of-reviva…

[R-BgO]

Programmentwurf der FDP für die Bundestagswahl im Herbst:

http://www.fdp.de/files/653/Programmentwurf_Internet.pdf

EEG abschaffen; Ökostromquote einführen (analog RPS); Pv zusätzlich steuerfördern

[R-BgO]

interessant; wenn schon zu 10c angeboten wird, sieht es nach Lagerräumung aus...:

State-invested Yingli is strong candidate to win bid for solar power plant in China desert

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 27 March 2009]

Yingli Green Energy, a China government-invested maker of crystalline silicon solar cells and photovoltaic (PV) modules, stands a good chance of winning the open bid to build a 10MWp solar power plant in the desert area of Dunhuang, Gansu province in northwestern China, according to a Chinese official.

Shi Lishan, an official with China's National Energy Adminstration, said Yingli stands a good chance, but nothing has been decided yet. Shi made the remarks on the sideline of a Taiwan-China PV industry convention held in Taipei earlier this week.

Eighteen competitors had submitted their bids for the project, but only 13 of them have been selected as qualified bidders, including China-based Sunyech Power and Solarfun Power Holding in addition to Yingli, according to industry sourecs.

One competitor's bid offers a very low feed-in price of 0.69 yuan (US$0.1) per kilowatt-hour, actually below generating cost, for the government to purchase electricity from the plant, the sources indicated. However, the feed-in price is not the only factor that the Chinese government is considering, the sources noted.

[R-BgO]

Will the Solar Industry Become Like the PC Industry?
Solar panels could become the new PC, and that's a good thing, people.
by: Michael Kanellos
Bullet Arrow March 23, 2009
Advertisement

The PC is dead.

I heard that every few weeks for nine years when I ran the hardware division at News.com, a technology news site. First, Net PCs were going to kill them. Then, the sub-$1,000 PC was going to eviscerate industry profits. Game consoles would become the gateway the Internet. Then it was Internet appliances, like Audrey. Then smart phones.

The funniest part is that these comments didn't just come from random Internet cranks. They also came from my boss.

PC shipments came to 135.5 million units in 2001, a year that some called the beginning of the end for the PC market, according to Richard Shim of IDC. In 2008, when demand dropped off, shipments came to 295 million, or more than double. Not everyone made money in the last seven years, but Google became a household word through PC searches, Intel and Microsoft expanded their reach, and Hewlett-Packard went from struggling with a strategy devised by Carly Fiorina to sell services and software to a rebirth by re-emphasizing consumer PCs.

To be honest, being like the PC industry would be one of the best things ever happen to the solar industry.

So, is it possible?

At first glance, it's a stretch because PCs and solar panels remain very different creatures. The entire PC market is based around steady price declines, rapid turnover, improving technology and expanding capabil ities, thanks to Moore's Law. It's the industrial equivalent of the triple Salchow.

The same doesn't exist in solar. No one replaces their solar panels three years after they buy them because the new ones are pink. The power-efficiency ratings creep up only a little bit every year so you're not tempted to upgrade either.

It's like a high school math teacher and a gag Einstein tie: You buy it once and you're good for life.

With this outlook, steady cost reductions become the only determinant in solar.

Luckily, ways to escape from this trap have begun to emerge. First, creative ways to really drop prices have begun to crop up. Telio Solar, for example, has figured out how to produce copper indium gallium (CIGS) solar cells on equipment lines largely adopted from the LCD TV industry (see Green Light post). This sort of equipment adaptation has allowed it to build a pilot plant for $3 million, extremely low in CIGS. Plastic – one of the cheapest materials around – is also getting mixed into solar. Ascent Solar Technologies says it can make CIGS on polymer substrates while Cool Earth Solar has a Mylar concentrator (see Ascent Solar Makes CIGS on Plastic and Can Concentrators Stay Fresh With Plastic Wrap?). These are technologies that exist in the name of cost reduction, but the savings (and more like them) are potentially sizeable enough to goose a significant boost in demand.

Second, you're seeing the first stabs at improving the customer experience, the real driver of the PC market. It started last year with Sungevity, which came up with an application that let consumers get a solar estimate at home. No more making an appointment with a contractor that will climb around on your roof for a few hours. Instead, you go online, and a woman that looks like Lindsay Wagner guides you through a video game involving your home.

This year, another phase of this process began with the solar appliances. Chromasun, founded by Ausra co-founder Peter Le Lievre, makes a solar-powered air conditioner (see Ausra Co-Founder Returns With Solar Air Conditioner). Colorado's BrightPhase Energy has a device for producing light, electricity and hot water. Entech has heat and electricity. These devices use a lot of the same basic components that regular solar systems do but they are designed with specific customers and applications in mind. If they can come up the magically delicious formula for a rooftop device that appeals to lots of buyers, they can sell devices and maintain margins.

Granted, this is really about innovation around the frame of the module, not the solar cell itself. Thus, solar purists will probably sneer. But the same thing happened in computers: Transistors became anonymous components in chips, and chips mostly became faceless devices inside boxes from Dell. Module scientists, be forewarned – you're being pushed to the back of the class picture.

We will likely see a third element of this evolution come next year with solar fabs and more sophisticated contract manufacturers. Fabs, short for fabrication facilities, changed the IT industry by allowing chip makers to outsource manufacturing so they could concentrate on design and sales. It was an outlandish idea when Morris Chang first suggested it, but his company TSMC is now one of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world.

Solar fabs right now don't exist, but imagine if they did, Marco DeMiroz, a partner at Trinity Ventures, asked me. Professors at UC Berkeley or Stanford could incubate small companies and farm out prototyping and manufacturing to a mega-fab. No more worrying about raising $50 million to build a factory or buy tools: a solar startup could be kicked off for a few million or less.

Solar fabs could differentiate themselves: Some could become experts in crystalline silicon while others could specialize in cadmium telluride and III-V devices. Venture capitalists could recruit execs out of Novellus, Applied Materials and Intel to run these companies: It's a movie they'd all be familiar with.

Fabs and better contract manufacturers in turn would unlock the true potential of Asia. Right now, it's viewed as a low cost destination. You know the image. "Last week, we made stuffed animals and ladies' leg shavers. Now we do inverters, soldering guns and counterfeit 555 cigarettes."

With a proliferation of fabs, Chinese and Korean would define the technological cutting edge. This isn't all that farfetched. It's happened before.

Believe me. The solar market isn't dead yet.

[R-BgO]

The skinny on silicon thin-film PV: NanoMarkets’ report runs the numbers, and then some
27 March 2009 | By Tom Cheyney | Chip Shots

Amorphous-silicon thin-film PV has been around since the time when Jimmy Carter admitted to having lust in his heart (along with solar on the White House roof), and the words "personal" and "computer" rarely ended up conjoined. The first truly commercial TFPV was always going to be the next big thing, ultimately replacing crystalline silicon as the premiere photovoltaic material.

Well that didn't happen. But the future has never looked as promising for SiTFPV as it has over the past few years. It has taken another couple of decades, but amorphous--sometimes with a little germanium blended in, or in combo with its progeny, microcrystalline--is actually in the conversation about rewriting the solar power playbook.

The clusterbomb of companies like Sharp, Sanyo, and ECD Uni-Solar ramping hundreds of megawatts of tandem/multijunction thin silicon lines along with the turnkey trio of Applied Materials, Oerlikon, and Ulvac offering start-ups a lower-risk entry to high-volume PV module making--with the polysilicon shortage thrown in as a market sector accelerant--has given SiTFPV the kind of disruptive status that only its true believers once dreamed of.

At least one market research company believes that the best days of SiTFPV (or as they might initialize it, TFSiPV) are ahead of it. In the new report, "Materials for Thin Film Silicon Photovoltaics," NanoMarkets sees SiTFPV as the dominant thin film today and for several years into the future. Although First Solar single-handedly has put CdTe into the aforementioned conversation, skinny silicon still held on to the lion's share of the TFPV veldt in 2008 (which represented 23% of the overall PV market last year), with 54% of the total, according to NanoMarkets.

The report does see SiTFPV's hold on sector supremacy slipping toward the latter part of its forecast period (2013-2016ish), as CdTe and especially CIGS come on stronger and even OPV gets into the fray.

Yet the silicon TF numbers projected are not exactly chopped liver. The NanoMarketeers think that next-gen SiTFPV--triple-junction cells, consisting of materials cocktails of amorphous, micro- and nanocrystalline layers, with Si quantum dots and nanowires also in play--will help keep the ball rolling, the conversion efficiencies growing, and the cost per manufactured watt dropping.

Here's what NanoMarkets believes needs to happen for SiTFPV to keep its mojo working into the next decade.

"Ultimately, the keys for amorphous silicon to maintain its dominant position in the TFPV marketplace and to grow in the PV marketplace in general are to increase the efficiency of the cells and lower the cost of materials. Areas where efficiency gains can be made are through further optimization of the tandem-junction thin-film deposition, which in the short term translates into further optimization of the microcrystalline bottom absorber followed by a transition to a nanocrystalline bottom absorber.

"The second possible efficiency improvement from a materials point of view is modification of the current processes used to texturize the TCO, which will improve the light-trapping efficiency and thus overall efficiency of the cell. The longer-term materials challenge is to transition either to a silicon nanowire or silicon-based quantum dot absorber, which if successful will provide a path to efficiencies above 15% while using most of the existing manufacturing infrastructure."

"The other half of the equation is aggressive cost reduction. A significant cost reduction can be realized by higher levels of integration to the process flow. For example, the TCO can be integrated as an inline process instead of a separate operation as is typically done today. Silane utilization and overall gas usage reductions are also areas where optimization and process improvements will result in cost reduction. Many of the other traditional fab metrics such as higher throughput, yield and uptime can leverage learning from the semiconductor industry and will also help, but these are second-tier improvements."

So how much will SITFPV grow over the next octuplet of solar cycles? Total production should exceed 1 GW next year, 2 GW in 2012, 3 GW in 2013, then just continue flying north in gigawatt chunks for the rest of the period, if the research outfit's prognostications prove premonitional. On the revenues side, the "middle-of-the-road scenario" forecast calls for $1.3 billion this year, over $2.1 billion in 2011, and then just keep adding a billion or so per year for the duration.

As for a-Si PV materials, the company believes the total market will top $1.14 billion in 2011 (led by the active material category), almost touch $2.3 billion in 2014, and crest $3.2 billion in 2016.

Although I am skeptical of forecasters in the solar PV space in general (can you say, "maddening inconsistency," "flawed data," or "hidden agendas"?), attempts to project beyond the next few years strain credulity. The kind of crystal-ball accuracy required to nail the numbers five or more years out is about as common as a monocrystalline cell with 30% efficiency--basically beyond the theoretical limit.

That being said, I do find NanoMarkets' growth forecast presents an interesting crossover point toward the mid-2010s. At some point in 2015-2016, the production numbers will come to parity--$1 million in revenues for every 1 MW produced--and then slip for the first time to the sub-million-dollar-per-megawatt zone, according to the firm's model.

Still, it's a bit premature to ditch the old saying, "a megawatt made is a million earned."

[R-BgO]

aus NEF:

The most important positive development of the week however came in China, where the government introduced a subsidy of up to CNY 20 per Watt (USD 2.9/W) for BIPV projects over 50kW.

Eligible projects for the subsidy have to be commissioned after 23 March 2009, and are required to have a module efficiency of over 16% for monocrystalline PV modules, 14% for multicrystalline PV modules and 6% for a-Si thin-film modules. Grid-connected and public building will be given preference.

The subsidy is regarded as generous, although it is scheduled to last for just one year and chances of its continuance will depend on market conditions. The most likely beneficiaries according to New Energy Finance analysis are installations at large commercial and public buildings.

Such was the positive reception for this policy development that shares in Chinese solar firms Suntech, Yingli Green, Canadian Solar, LDK and ReneSola all surged by between 30% and 50% on the same day as the announcement.

[SLGramann]

In den USA läuft es möglicherweise wirklich auf einen bundesweiten RPS hinaus. Aus meiner Sicht eines der wichtigsten Projekte in Sachen "green new deal". Hoffen wir das Beste - vielleicht noch in 2009.

Climate Legislation Introduced in Washington, Includes RPS Provision

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/04…

[UWR_Kerl]

http://greenleapforward.com/2009/04/01/jiangsu-kicks-off-dom…

Provincial Subsidies Jumpstart Jiangsu Domestic Solar Market
Wednesday, 01 April 2009 06:16 The Green Leap Forward
6588


A look at Jiangsu Province’s newly reported solar incentives and further reflections on the national Solar Roof Program.

Fast on the heels of the new national solar subsidies (Solar Roof Program) announced last week by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (see previous post), a report (Chinese only) yesterday says that Jiangsu province will be enacting aggressive provincial solar incentives to target 260 MW of installed solar capacity and 30,000 tons of annual polysilicon production by the end 2011. Not much details on how exactly these incentives will be rolled out, but a March 30 Bank of America report that landed on GLF’s desk suggest that this may actually take the form of a feed-in-tariff.

According to the B of A report:

…Jiangsu province of China is considering a budget of CNY1bn per annum (~$145mn) for solar subsidy in form of feed-in tariff. If confirmed, the news will be a major positive development not only for more provincial support, but the fact that a formal feed-in tariff could be in place, confirming our thesis that more provincial and municipal support could follow very quickly …

According to our understanding, the annual CNY1bn subsidy will be distributed in form of a feed-in tariff and is separate from the central government’s CNY20/Wp subsidy. Based on a feed-in tariff rate of CNY2/kWh (although we believe ~CNY1.5/kWh is the optimal rate), this could potentially translate into a 200-250MW market over the next 1-2 years in Jiangsu alone. We are not surprised by such proposal, given the Jiangsu province houses major PV manufacturers such as Suntech, Trina and Renesola.

Hallelujah!!! This is exactly the knock-on effect that the solar industry is waiting for. The 200-250 MW figure is consistent with the 260 MW announcement, which was released the day after the B fo A report. To put 260 MW into perspective, the national target for all types of solar power (including non-photvoltaic solar such as concentrated solar power applications) for 2010 is 300 MW (to total installed capacity at the end of 2007 was 100 MW). Jiangsu alone can single handedly propel China past the admittedly modest national target.

We’ve yet to see any Chinese media sources confirming the exact nature of Jiangsu’s subsidies, and whether it will take the form of a feed-in tariff, but we’ll keep checking. With respect to polysilicon production, “Jiangsu has designated Xuzhou, Yangzhou, and Lianyungang as bases for the province’s polysilicon industry,” reports JLM Pacifc Epoch.

It is no surprise that Jiangsu is leading the way here. It is afterall, the “California” of energy policy. (Indeed, it is actually colloborating with the Californian government on demand side management in the utilties sector.) Hopes are high that other provinces may follow suit. Continued the B of A note:

We believe that other provinces may follow the suit in offer local level support, which includes Hebei (which houses Yingli and JA Solar) and the more affluent provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong. Less affluent provinces such as Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Sichuan (which houses major poly manufacturers) are also potential candidates to offer more local support.

Giddyup, the rest of China! And greetings to meinolf.

Some Updates and Further Reflections on the Solar Roofs Program

The Ministry of Finance (MOF) issued an Interpretation (Chinese only) this week to follow up on the Solar Roofs Program announced last week. It reiterates that the policy is meant for PV systems associated with buildings only and clarifies that after MOF has provided a 70% of the subsidies for any given project, the remaining 30% will be disbursed not by the provinces (as we originally thought), but by MOF as well, but only after certain project requirements have been fulfilled. This two step funding process is essentially a governance measure to ensure project quality. This must come to the relief of provinces and the solar market, because it means that these building PV projects will not be hamstrung by provincial budgets.

What we at GLF do not like as much about the Solar Roofs Program is that it rewards installed capacity (by providing subsidies on a per W basis) and not actual solar power generation (on a KWh basis). We’ve already seen in the Chinese wind industry how the dogmatic pursuit of installed capacity targets came at the expense of actual generation as many wind farms were left unconnected to the grid (see a previous post on the wind industry). A feed-in tariff is preferable because it rewards actual solar power generation–you only get the money for actual power actually produced.

There are perhaps two mitigating factors to the installed capacity approach. First, as already described in our previous post, there are conversion efficiency requirements that the PV systems have to hit, depending on what PV technology is used. Second, the program seems to contemplate that policies such as feed-in tariffs would fall within the jurisdiction of provinces (see the Implementation Measures, Article 4) , perhaps reflecting the understanding that different regions have different solar endowments and different existing eletricity tariff structures, thus requiring a more tailored approach that are best left to the provinces.

Naturally, we’ll keep you posted on the latest solar policy developments here at GLF when we learn more.

[R-BgO]

China’s subsidies plan: update suggests decline in annual allowance
01 April 2009 | By Síle Mc Mahon | News > Market Watch


Following on from last week’s news of the introduction of a solar subsidy system for the Chinese market, Barclays Capital Solar has published an update, with details garnered from the Chinese Ministry of Finance’s announcement on March 31st. The reviewed announcement includes news of an annual decline in subsidies.

The Barclays report states that contrary to the original release, the program covers both non-BIPV rooftop applications as well as BIPV, but that the incentive for the non-BIPV applications will be lower than the $2.90/W announced for BIPV.

The subsidy amounts are expected to decline year-by-year, but no further information was given on this point.

While the Ministry of Finance has yet to decide on a specific annual cap for the subsidies, it was suggested that 70% of the incentives budget would be transferred to the Provincial Finance Ministry. Following a review of the finished package, the remaining 30% will then be transferred to the Ministry.

It seems likely that this program is in addition to Provincial Subsidy programs for the country, given that, for example, the province of Jiangsau recently established a feed-in tariff for 240MW installations.

Stimulus package

China’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus package (announced in early March) included 210 billion yuan ($30 billion) for green energy programs, but there are rumours that there is an additional $30 billion green stimulus package on the cards – this has been disputed by Barclays’s research.

Outlook

Despite the lower subsidy level for the non-BIPV installations, the Barclays report states that:

“…We believe no formal cap for the program, potential announcements of provincial subsidy programs and longer term nature of the Central government subsidy program are positives.”

[R-BgO]

Ein Sache, die mich immer irritiert hat, ist daß wir auf der Erlösseite von Strompreisen von 10-40c/kWh sprechen, wobei der untere Wert zumindest bis heute noch sehr ehrgeizig ist.

Andererseits wird für die sehr stromintensive Produktion (insb. SI + Ingot) von INPUTpreisen für Strom ausgegangen, die dramatisch niedriger liegen.

Habe das für mich immer ein bisschen so rationalisiert, daß ich ein PV-Modul wie eine kWh-Sparkasse angesehen habe; so nach dem Motto: SI-Produktion mit Wasser (z.B. Kanada, Norwegen) oder Geothermalstrom (z.B. Island) und dann Stromproduktion mit "Zinsen" dezentral in anderen Regionen.

Vor diesem Hintergrund finde ich diesen Artikel interessant:

SOLAR DAILY
Manufacturing Inefficiency

Solar panels are a good example. Their production, which uses some of the same manufacturing processes as microchips but on a large scale, is escalating dramatically. The inherent inefficiency of current solar panel manufacturing methods could drastically reduce the technology's lifecycle energy balance - that is, the ratio of the energy the panel would produce over its useful lifetime to the energy required to manufacture it.


by Staff Writers
Boston MA (SPX) Mar 31, 2009
Modern manufacturing methods are spectacularly inefficient in their use of energy and materials, according to a detailed MIT analysis of the energy use of 20 major manufacturing processes.

Overall, new manufacturing systems are anywhere from 1,000 to one million times bigger consumers of energy, per pound of output, than more traditional industries. In short, pound for pound, making microchips uses up orders of magnitude more energy than making manhole covers.

At first glance, it may seem strange to make comparisons between such widely disparate processes as metal casting and chip making. But Professor Timothy Gutowski of MIT's Department of Mechanical Engineering, who led the analysis, explains that such a broad comparison of energy efficiency is an essential first step toward optimizing these newer manufacturing methods as they gear up for ever-larger production.

"The seemingly extravagant use of materials and energy resources by many newer manufacturing processes is alarming and needs to be addressed alongside claims of improved sustainability from products manufactured by these means," Gutowksi and his colleagues say in their conclusion to the study, which was recently published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology (ES and T).

Gutowksi notes that manufacturers have traditionally been more concerned about factors like price, quality, or cycle time, and not as concerned over how much energy their manufacturing processes use.

This latter issue will become more important, however, as the new industries scale up - especially if energy prices rise again or if a carbon tax is adopted, he says.

Solar panels are a good example. Their production, which uses some of the same manufacturing processes as microchips but on a large scale, is escalating dramatically.

The inherent inefficiency of current solar panel manufacturing methods could drastically reduce the technology's lifecycle energy balance - that is, the ratio of the energy the panel would produce over its useful lifetime to the energy required to manufacture it.

The new study is just "the first step in doing something about it," Gutowski says - understanding which processes are most inefficient and need further research to develop less energy-intensive alternatives. For example, many of the newer processes involve vapor-phase processing (such as sputtering, in which a material is vaporized in a vacuum chamber so that it deposits a coating on an exposed surface in that chamber), which is usually much less efficient than liquid phase (such as depositing a coating from a liquid solution), but liquid processing alternatives might be developed.

The study covered everything "from soup to nuts" in terms of standard industrial methods, Gutowski says, "from heavy-duty old fashioned industries like a cast-iron foundry, all the way up to semiconductors and nanomaterials."

It includes injection molding, sputtering, carbon nanofiber production and dry etching, along with more traditional machining, milling, drilling and melting. There were some boundaries on the processes studied, however: The researchers did not analyze production of pharmaceuticals or petroleum, and they only looked primarily at processes where electricity was the primary energy source.

The figures the team derived are actually conservative, Gutowski says, because they did not include some significant energy costs such as the energy required to make the materials themselves or the energy required to maintain the environment of the plant (such as air conditioning and filtration for clean rooms used in semiconductor processing).

"All these things would make [the energy costs] worse," he says.

The bottom line is that "new processes are huge users of materials and energy," he says. Because some of these processes are so new, "they will be optimized and improved over time," he says.

But as things stand now, over the last several decades as traditional processes such as machining and casting have increasingly given way to newer ones for the production of semiconductors, MEMS and nano-materials and devices, for a given quantity of output "we have increased our energy and materials consumption by three to six orders of magnitude."

One message from the study is that "claims that these technologies are going to save us in some way need closer scrutiny. There's a significant energy cost involved here," he says. And another is that "each of these processes could be improved," and using the analytical tools developed by the MIT team for this study would be a useful first step in such a detailed analysis.

In addition to Gutowski, the study was done by current and former MIT mechanical engineering students Matthew Branham, Jeffrey Dahmus, Alissa Jones and Alexandre Thiriez, and Dusan Sekulic, professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Kentucky. It was funded by the National Science Foundation.

[UWR_Kerl]

zu #550 von R-BgO 02.04.09 12:07:51 Beitrag Nr.: 36.904.823

"(such as depositing a coating from a liquid solution), but liquid processing alternatives might be developed."


Da fällt mir Stangl zu ein. Also Sinkulus.

[R-BgO]

einer der ersten mit "sicheren Verträgen":

Published: 14:06 03.04.2009 GMT+2 /HUGIN /Source: Renewable Energy Corporation ASA /OSE: REC /ISIN: NO0010112675

REC ASA - REC Solar adjusts production volumes

Sandvika, April 3, 2009: REC Solar has decided to reduce second quarter production of solar cells and modules by close to 50 percent.

With reference to the challenging market environment for the solar industry in the first quarter 2009, REC Solar has experienced solar cells/modules inventory build-up. Consequently, REC Solar has decided to reduce second quarter production of solar cells and modules by close to 50 percent. Approximately 180 employees will be affected through terminations of temporary employment contracts, temporary lay-offs of permanent employees and rescheduled vacations.

With good contract coverage, REC does not expect changes to the production of cells and modules in the third and fourth quarter of 2009.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.914.754 von R-BgO am 03.04.09 14:18:48

Offenbar eine etwas verspätete Reaktion.

Was ich an der bisherigen Entwicklung ganz allgemein einigermaßen bemerkenswert finde, ist, dass sich der ganze Markt viel stärker als mengengesteuert und viel weniger als preisgesteuert erweist, als ich und andere das vor einem Jahr oder so gedacht hätte.

Wir haben ja schon vor längerer Zeit Szenarien diskutiert, in denen das Angebot die Nachfrage nach Modulen übersteigt (seinerzeit haben wir natürlich nur erwartet, dass das Angebot exorbitant steigt, nicht aber, dass - auch - die Nachfrage zusammenbricht... )

Wir haben dann angenommen, dass die Modulpreise vollkommen zusammenbrechen würden.

Bisher ist das aber nicht eingetroffen. Natürlich sind die Preise gefallen, aber zumindest im Moment sieht es so aus, als ob die Masse der Zellproduzenten dieses Jahr eine auskömmliche Marge haben wird. Statt eines Preiscrashs, der zum massenhaften Ausscheiden von Herstellern führt, erleben wir also eher eine Anpassung der Produktionsmengen an die verminderte Nachfrage.

Man muss aber wohl vermuten, dass diese - fast kartellhaft anmutende - Mengenbegrenzung des Angebots nur ein temporäres Sonderphänomen ist. Ich vermute, dass schon auf mittlere Sicht die Produzenten stärker als bisher über Preissenkungen um Marktanteile kämpfen werden, als "freiwillig" ihre Ausstoßmengen zu begrenzen. Für die Margen - und den Wert der PV-Unternehmen - hätte dies sehr unschöne Konsequenzen.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.917.890 von SLGramann am 03.04.09 20:04:19

Wenn es ich tatsächlich um eine "Sondersituation" handelt, die den Preiscrash verhindert, wäre noch nach ihren Gründen zu fragen. Ich kann nur vermuten, dass es die derzeit - aufgrund von Langfristverträgen - wohl noch recht starre Liefersituation des Siliziums ist, die den Preiscrash verhindert. Denn noch haben vermutlich die Unternehmen mit den größten Kostenvorteilen bei der Produktion keinen Zugriff auf große Mengen wirklich billigen Siliziums (tausende Tonnen für 60 Dollar und weniger). Ich gehe indes davon aus, dass bei allen großen Zellherstellern - gerade in Europa - derzeit die Lager anwachsen, weil Silizium zwar angekauft werden muss (Verträge!), aber nicht in Form von Zellen abverkauft werden kann (Nachfragezusammenbruch).

Da ein Lageraufbau aus Liquiditätsgründen nicht ins Uferlose getrieben werden kann, müssen irgendwan größere Mengen von Silizium zu Ausverkaufspreisen aus den Lagern der Zellhersteller und aus der Produktion neuer Si-Produzenten auf den Spotmarkt drängen. Dann, so vermute ich, wird das fragile Gleichgewicht das derzeit herrscht zusammenbrechen. Der Markt wird dann von der Mengensteuerung der Produktion auf eine Preissteuerung umschwenken und die operativ teureren Produzenten werden aus dem Markt ausscheiden müssen.

Das Einzige, das aus meiner Sicht dieses Szenario verhindern kann, ist ein sehr deutliches Wiederanspringen der Nachfrage. Selbst dann wäre der Preiskampf aber nur aufgeschoben.

PS: Ob an meinen Überlegungen zu einem Aufwuchs der Lager bei den Zellherstellern etwas dran ist, werden ja die anstehenden Q-Zahlen weisen.

Die REC-Meldung geht in diese Richtung. Übrigens darf man die Frage stellen, was REC nun mit dem Silizium machen wird, dass aufgrund der Produktionsbeschränkung nun nicht mehr benötigt wird. Der endgültige Crash der Spot-Preise für Si (50 Dollar und weniger) binnen 6 Monaten ist ein nicht abwegiges Szenario. (natürlich nicht nur wegen der paar Tonnen von REC, sondern vor allem aus den o.g. Gründen des Lagerabbaus und der Eintritts immer neuer Si-Produzenten in den Markt)

[R-BgO]

nur mal so als Einzelmeinung/Kolorit:

...was mich allerdings (immer wieder) erschüttert, ist wenn Autoren nicht zwischen KW und KWh unterscheiden können: die 0,69 habe ich als 6,9c/KWh gelesen.

Da fragt man sich, wie durchdacht der Rest wohl sein kann.



Solar's Dead Cat Bounce May Be Over
by: Kelvin Schulle April 03, 2009 | about stocks: CSIQ / ENER / ESLR / FSLR / KWT / LDK / PBW / SOLF / SOLR / SPWRA / STP / TAN / TSL
Kelvin Schulle

China's news on a solar subsidy initiative has driven a short covering frenzy in the last two weeks. Suntech Power (STP) zoomed up almost 300% to $14 from a low of $5; LDK gained 70% from $3.75 to $6.8; Canadian Solar (CSIQ) gained 120% from $3 to $6.7; TSL gained 100% from $5.6 to $11; Solarfun (SOLF) rallied from $2.27 to $4.4. Thursday's downturn in the solar sector is difficult to swallow, especially when the DJIA rallied 3% ahead of the G20's conclusion. Investors have started to take profits and are waiting for the euphoria to settle down.

Volume has been drying up in the last few days while stock prices are still climbing. This may signal to investors that this is a dead cat bounce with no further support from fundamentals expected. Investors will realize the help may not come early even though the government has planned to support the domestic renewable energy industry. A good example: U.S. President Obama sent message in 2008 that he is going to support the solar and wind industry, yet these stocks have not rallied because according to the White House, federal assistance to the industry will not come until 2010.

As a result, solar companies such as First Solar (FSLR), Sunpower (SPWRA), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), GT solar (SOLR) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) will have tough quarters for the rest of 2009. Recently Energy Conversion reduced its third quarter outlook and said it would slow expansion plans because of the weakening economy. We don't see the Chinese solar stimulus likely taking effect until mid-2010 and so the next two quarters will be under pressure.

Another concern is that low solar panel prices are pressuring the margins of most Chinese solar companies. In a recent bidding war over a solar farm in China, one company offered a price of $0.69/kW. The company is going to lose money if the deal goes through at the proposed price but competition is so high and not many projects are available at this moment. There are currently over 30 solar companies in China and more start-ups are planning on coming to market according to Xinhua newsnet.

[R-BgO]

nochmal ein ganz guter Überblick zum China-Wonder:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/confusion-political-s…

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.919.365 von R-BgO am 04.04.09 08:20:13

The ministry said in the update that rapid technology advancements have lowered the product costs of solar panels to around 20 RMB per watt already. The cost of engineering and installing a solar energy system also average 20 RMB per watt.


Das sagen ja jetzt "alle". Ich kapiers nur nicht... Wir reden ja schließlich von 2,93 Dollar.

[SLGramann]

Entwicklung der Modulpreise laut pvxchange.


Die "Mengensteuerung" scheint tatsächlich zu funktionieren. Denn selbst eine denkbare leichte Erholung der Nachfrage zum Frühjahr/Sommer hin, sollte auf eine faktisch fast unbegrenzte Angebotsfunktion treffen. Denn hatte Photon nicht erklärt, es gäbe 15 GW Modulproduktionskapazität?

Würden diese Kapazitäten tatsächlich ausgereizt, wären die derzeitigen Modulpreise schwerlich erklärbar...

Dass die Modulpreise indes immer noch recht stabil sind, zeigt sich auch bei den Systempreisen in Deutschland, die nach wie vor um die 3.600 Euro / kW zu liegen scheinen (mit den üblichen Ausreißern nach oben und unten natürlich).

Ein typisches aktuelles Beispiel:

9,1 KWp
Module 57x aleo S 16/175 WP +/- 3%
Wechselrichter: 2x SAM Sunny Boy 4000 TL Wirkungsgrad 97 %
Montagesystem: "Biber" Querschienen,Dachhaken, Modulmittel- und Endhalter
Montage : kmpl. Montage mit Netzanmeldung
KWp Preis (netto): 3700,-
geplante Inbetriebnahme: 05/2009


Meine These oder Befürchtung ist halt nur, dass diese ganze Stabilität nur über den Lageraufbau erreicht werden kann und dass das nicht mehr lange gut geht. Wir werden sehen.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.924.167 von SLGramann am 06.04.09 08:52:13

ach so, ein Nachtrag:

Mengensteuerung hin oder her - Modulpreise von 3 Euro und mehr dürften wohl ein Ausreißer - wenn nicht gar ein Fehler in der Datenbank - sein. Eine Stabilsierung bei 2,40 Euro ist schon verblüffend genug.

Wenn es indes bei den 3 Euro bleiben würde, höre ich damit auf, diese Branche verstehen zu wollen!

[a_bit_fishy]

Woher respektive worauf begründet sich die von dir eingestellte grafik ?
Wie ist die beschriftung der x-achse zu verstehen ?
Ich wäre hier vorsichtig, wenn du irgendein angebot aus dem photovoltaikforum hier einstellst und es dann als "typisches aktuelles angebot bezeichnest."
Klar die preise sind momentan in bewegung und an schwankungen haben wir dieses jahr noch einiges zu erwarten. Jedoch glaube ich, dass weder deine eingestellte grafik noch das angebot representativ ist.
Wenn wir bei deiner quelle "photovoltaikforum" bleiben und du dort die preise aus der rubrik "angebote" von jänner, februar und märz vergleichst, wirst du in keinerweise eine korrelation mit der von dir eingestellten grafik erkennen, oder ? Wobei, das photovoltaikforum ist natürlich nur ein kleiner teil der aktuellen wahrheit in deutschland oder gar europa.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.924.282 von a_bit_fishy am 06.04.09 09:11:09

Also, gern zugegeben, beide Quellen sind alles andere als der Weisheit letzter Schluss - aber was besseres und aktuelles habe ich derzeit nicht.

Die x-Achse des Diagramms verstehe ich so, dass die Zahlen den Beginn einer Kalenderwoche bezeichnen. Nicht logisch ist dann indes, dass die Funktion bereits heute bis zum Ende der derzeit laufenden 15. KW reicht. Aber ich vermute, dass das ein Problem der Darstellung ist. Das wird weiter zu beobachten sein.

Eine genaue Korrelation zwischen Endkundenpreisen und den von Januar bis März zwischen ca. 2,35 Euro und 2,55 Euro schwankenden Modulpreisen ist aus vielen Gründen nicht zu erwarten.

Dass die Modulpreise zu dieser Zeit zwischen 2,40 Euro und 2,60 Euro geschwankt haben, ist aber auch aus anderen Quellen bestätigt - bspw. von Photon.

Ich verfolge die Postings im Photovoltaikforum recht regelmäßig, einfach um einen Eindruck zu bekommen. Dass das nicht den ganzen Markt beschreibt, ist klar.

Aber, was da gepostet wird, macht im großen und ganzen schon Sinn. Ich finde es bspw. glaubwürdig, dass Modulpreise von ca. 2,50 Euro zu Systempreisen für den Endkunden zw. 3.200 und 3.800 Euro führen (da gibt es im Einzelfall natürlich jede Menge Variablen).

Wenn Du da regelmäßig mitliest, wirst Du meine Aussage bestätigt finden, dass so ca. 3.600 Euro / kW derzeit einigermaßen "die Norm" ist.

Sollte sich der in der Grafik gezeigte Preissprung tatsächlich bestätigen und sollte er nachhaltig sein (glaub ich nicht dran!), dann werden die Preise wohl bald wieder eher Richtung 4.000 Euro / kW laufen.

Wie auch immer: Für die nächsten Photon sind wieder umfangreiche Betrachtungen zum Markt und zum Preisniveau angekündigt - da haben wir dann weitere Daten. Und die Q1-Zahlen der Modulproduzenten sind ja auch nicht mehr weit.

[a_bit_fishy]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.924.605 von SLGramann am 06.04.09 09:57:59

Die x-Achse des Diagramms verstehe ich so, dass die Zahlen den Beginn einer Kalenderwoche bezeichnen. Nicht logisch ist dann indes, dass die Funktion bereits heute bis zum Ende der derzeit laufenden 15. KW reicht. Aber ich vermute, dass das ein Problem der Darstellung ist. Das wird weiter zu beobachten sein.

Kann es vielleicht sein, dass die grafik aus dem jahre 2008 ist ?


Ich verfolge die Postings im Photovoltaikforum recht regelmäßig, einfach um einen Eindruck zu bekommen. Dass das nicht den ganzen Markt beschreibt, ist klar.

Ja finde ich auch extrem interessant. Bin dort auch schon lange dabei. Jedoch sollte man berücksichtigen, dass es sich hier um ein relativ kleines marktsegment handelt.
Welt -> europa -> deutschland -> (private)kleinanlagen




Aber, was da gepostet wird, macht im großen und ganzen schon Sinn. Ich finde es bspw. glaubwürdig, dass Modulpreise von ca. 2,50 Euro zu Systempreisen für den Endkunden zw. 3.200 und 3.800 Euro führen (da gibt es im Einzelfall natürlich jede Menge Variablen).

Ich hatte jedoch in letzter zeit den eindruck, dass die angebotspreise von jänner bis jetzt eindeutig gefallen sind. Ganz im gegensatz zu deiner grafik. Kann mich jetzt aber auch täuschen. Ich kenne jedoch auch viele andere beispiele, aus der praxis die absolut nicht mit dieser grafik übereinstimmen.

Aber hast recht, schaun wir mal was in der nächsten photon steht.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.924.732 von a_bit_fishy am 06.04.09 10:12:05

Nein, das Diagramm ist gewiss aktuell.

Es gibt dann übrigens noch das von Solarbuzz:

http://www.solarbuzz.com/Photos/moduleprices09-4.gif


mit folgender Erklärung:

Since we often receive questions on this price index, it is worth re-emphasising that the price set is based on retail prices for the purchase of a single module. Within the industry, and often discussed by Financial Analysts, the other type of module price talked about is "factory gate" prices. These are the prices at the first point of sale from the module manufacturer. As an approximation, factory gate prices are around 50-70% lower than the prices in this index.

Dazu noch folgendes Details:

As of April 2009, there are currently 283 solar module prices below $4.75 per watt (€3.61 per watt) or 21.2% of the total survey. This compares with 293 prices below $4.75 per watt in March. The lowest retail price for a multicrystalline silicon solar module is $3.41 per watt (€2.59 per watt) from a German retailer. The lowest retail price for a monocrystalline silicon module is $3.35 per watt (€2.55 per watt), also from a German retailer.


Kann mir bitte(!) jemand mal den exorbitanten Unterschied zwischen dem durchschnittlichen Retail-Preis laut Solarbuzz und den factory-gate-Preisen erklären?

50 bis 70% finde ich absolut unbegreiflich!

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.924.798 von SLGramann am 06.04.09 10:20:19

Man sollte halt den richtigen Button drücken... sorry...

[SLGramann]

Mal sehen, wie das hier konkretisiert werden wird. Es gab ja schon vor Wochen Gerüchte, dass auch in Japan jetzt ein echter und ziemlich großzügiger FiT kommen soll...


06. April 2009 Japan verdoppelt seine Anstrengungen im Kampf gegen die schwerste Wirtschaftskrise seit Jahrzehnten. Mit einem weiteren Konjunkturprogramm über umgerechnet etwa 75 Milliarden Euro solle die Wirtschaft gestützt werden, sagte Finanzminister Kaoru Yosano am Montag.

...

Geplant seien unter anderem, ein Schutznetz für Beschäftige ohne Festanstellung, eine Verbesserung der Firmenfinanzierung und die Investitionen in Solaranlagen voranzutreiben, sagte Yosano, der zugleich auch Wirtschaftsminister ist.

Quelle: FAZ

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub050436A85B3A4C64819D7E1B05B60928/Doc…

[lieberlong]

Südafrika führt Einspeisetarife ein

(07.04.09) Die nationale Regulierungsbehörde von Südafrika hat am 31. März 2009 als erstes afrikanisches Land die Einführung von Einspeisetarifen für regenerativ erzeugten Strom (REFIT) bekannt gegeben. Strom aus Windenergie-Anlagen wird künftig nach Angaben des National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NESRA) 20 Jahre lang mit 1,25 Südafrikanischen Rand pro Kilowattstunde vergütet. Kleine Wasserkraftwerke werden mit 0,94 Südafrikanischen, Deponiegas mit 0,90 und Strom aus solarthermischen Kraftwerken auf Basis der CSP-Technologie (Concentrated Solar Power) mit 2,10 Südafrikanischen Rand vergütet. Nach aktuellem Kurs entsprechen 100 Rand 6,80 Euro, also 0,14 Euro für Solarkraft, 0,09 Euro für Windkraft, 0,06 Euro für Wasserkraft und 0,06 Euro für Deponiegaskraft.

http://www.euwid-energie.de/single.html?&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news…

[lieberlong]

08.04.2009 12:33
Japan solar subsidies lure fewer users than planned
By Risa Maeda

TOKYO, April 8 (Reuters) - Japan's subsidies for home solar panels have attracted far fewer applicants than planned, industry data showed on Wednesday, underscoring the likelihood of bold government steps to promote solar power.

Greater spending on solar power systems is expected to be a key feature of Japan's new stimulus plan, its fourth such package in the last year. The plan is expected to include fiscal spending of up to $150 billion and some details are expected later on Wednesday.

A top economic and fiscal policy advisory committee said last month that Japan should increase its solar power capacity 20-fold by 2020 from 2005 levels, double its previous target.

In January, the government introduced a subsidy of 70,000 yen ($700) per kilowatt of solar panel equipment, aiming to attract 35,000 applications in the January-March quarter.

But data from the Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association showed that there were so far only 21,653 applications.

The current subsidy works out to around 245,000 yen for 3.5 kilowatt of equipment per household, or around 10 percent of the cost.

But analysts say homeowners wary about big investments amid a deteriorating economy will not be easily won over, especially as solar power is expected to become cheaper and more efficient in coming years.

'People say they would rather wait until the cost halves in 3 to 5 years, which is what the government has forecast,' said Etsuko Akiba, head of media relations at the Nippon Association of Consumer Specialists.

The government budgeted 9 billion yen for its subsidies over the three-month period and has also announced an additional 20 billion yen for the financial year that began April 1, aiming for 120,000 applications over the 15 months.

Many local governments are also providing subsidies for solar power to supplement moves by the central government.

Solar power is the most costly among clean energy sources in Japan, and fiscal assistance is seen as necessary to expand demand and encourage solar panel makers, such as Sharp Corp , to invest in research and expansion abroad.

Demand for solar panels dried up after the government pulled the plug on subsidies in March 2006.

($1=100.17 Yen)

(Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

(([e-mail]; [phone]; Reuters Messaging: [e-mail])) Keywords: JAPAN ECONOMY/SOLAR

(If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to [e-mail])


COPYRIGHT


Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.940.929 von lieberlong am 08.04.09 13:00:46

Greater spending on solar power systems is expected to be a key feature of Japan's new stimulus plan, its fourth such package in the last year. The plan is expected to include fiscal spending of up to $150 billion and some details are expected later on Wednesday.




Es wird konkreter...

TOKYO — Japan’s ruling party unveiled the country’s biggest-ever economic stimulus plan on Thursday, a 15.4 trillion yen, or $154.4 billion, package of subsidies and tax breaks that aims to stem a deepening recession in the world’s second-biggest economy.

...

The plan also calls for 3 trillion yen to ease a growing credit crunch in small- and medium-sized industries, and 1.6 trillion yen to bolster environmentally friendly technologies, including subsidies for “green” cars and solar power for individual homes. Japan would also spend 2 trillion yen to improve health and child care, including expanded child support payments.

...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/business/global/09yen.html…


Das Volumen ist ordentlich. Das sind also 1,6 Billionen Yen, um es mal europäisch auszudrücken. Das sind 16 Milliarden Dollar. Man muss jetzt mal sehen, wie sich das auf die verschiedenen Bereiche aufteilt, aber selbst mit "nur" 1 bis 2 Milliarden für Solar könnte man dieses Jahr einen sehr großzügigen FIT auflegen. Das ist jedenfalls meine Hoffnung.

Sharp sind heute 10% gestiegen. Vor Ort - wo sie schon konkretere Daten haben - scheints gut anzukommen.

Vielleicht stellt sich das japanische Programm am Ende als viel wichtiger heraus, als das chinesische...

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.946.194 von SLGramann am 09.04.09 07:57:43

noch konkreter (Quelle Reuters):

Expanding a scheme in which electric power companies buy
surplus electricity generated by solar panels set up at
individual houses and other buildings and set up solar power
generators in about 37,000 schools.


Ich verstehe das als FIT und zusätzlich noch ein direktes Investitionsprogramm der Regierung. Das wäre ja eine optimale Kombination.

Was packen wir denn drauf auf die Schuldächer drauf? 10 kW? Das wären schon mal 370 MW Nachfrage, oder...?

[R-BgO]

...erste Indikationen zum Q1 trudeln ein:
(es waren 501 Mio. in Q1-2008; =>Rückgang um 57%)


09.04.2009 22:16
MEMC Announces Preliminary First Quarter Results and Date of Earnings Conference Call

ST. PETERS, Mo., April 9 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MEMC Electronic Materials, (News) Inc. today announced preliminary results for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

The company expects to report first quarter revenues of approximately $214 million, consistent with the company's previous outlook that revenue could decline by as much as 50% from the fourth quarter of 2008. As a result of lower pricing and additional underutilization charges, gross margin for the quarter is now expected to be approximately 9% of sales, compared to the company's previous outlook of gross margins declining to the 20% range.

The company will release full first quarter 2009 financial results on April 23, 2009 after the close of the market and will host its regularly scheduled conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, which will be broadcast on the Company's web site at .

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.953.906 von R-BgO am 10.04.09 09:08:42

Habe das gefuehl das Q1 weitaus schlechter ausfallen koennte fuer viele solar firmen als es in Q4 der fall war....aber das ist ja nicht entscheidend...auf die guidance kommts an....bin mal gespannt...wer ist eigentlich als erstes dran SPWR?(ich meine nicht preliminary results)..mfg CW

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.953.930 von dicki31785 am 10.04.09 09:18:14

SPWR meldet morgen in einer Woche, am 23.4.

[R-BgO]

Hussah!


..mich würde interessieren, wie hoch der Ausgangswert war; nur mal so zum Spaß eine Tabelle:

Ursprungspreis=>neuer Preis
200=>59,78
150=>44,84
100=>29,89
80=>23,91
60=>17,93
...und mir fällt es schwer, sich einen Ausgangspreis von über 100$ vorzustellen. Nun die Meldung:


Wafer Works China subsidiary wins large contract price cut for poly-Si

Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 15 April 2009]

China-based solar-grade crystalline silicon ingot and wafer maker Solargiga Energy, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based Wafer Works, has secured a 70.1% decrease in its contract price for polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) from Wealth Rise under Hoku Materials, according to industry sources in Taiwan. Consequently, total supply price has dropped from US$455 million originally to US$136 million, the sources said.

In addition to the price cut, the specified time for the first delivery of poly-Si has been delayed from March 31, 2010 to June 30 of the same year, the sources indicated. Wealth Rise agreed to cut the contract price because international contract and spot market prices of poly-Si have continually dropped and the company has not yet started production, the sources explained.

[R-BgO]

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/04…

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.969.435 von R-BgO am 15.04.09 09:11:09

...und mir fällt es schwer, sich einen Ausgangspreis von über 100$ vorzustellen.


Hi,

fällt mir auch schwer!

Fast genauso schwer fällt es mir aber, zu glauben, dass ein Newcomer bei einem Kilopreis von 30 Dollar oder weniger noch rentabel arbeiten kann. Oder herrscht bei Hoku mittlerweile die pure Panik? Vielleicht drücken Hemlock und Wacker die ganzen neuen "Möchtegerns" in den nächsten 2 Jahren an die Wand, dass es nur so knirscht.

Ob die Spotpreise inzwischen flächendeckend unter 100 sind?

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.970.941 von SLGramann am 15.04.09 12:15:37

Naja falls es wirklich so einen presikampf geben sollte um newcomers rauszudruecken sollte uns das nur recht sein wenn man es kurzfristig betrachtet....aber so simpel ist das ja nicht...leider

Weil langfristig sind natuerlich preise wesentlich besser umso mehr competetion da draussen ist....und nicht wenn ein paar firmen die szene dominieren....

Aber zu spot preisen unter 100, falls dies wirklich der fall ist, dann sollten durch eigentlich durchgehend abschreibungen im Q1 anfallen. und da wir april haben und sie weiter fallen sollte es doch auch in Q2 der fall sein?oder schaetze ich das falsch ein?mfg CW

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.970.987 von dicki31785 am 15.04.09 12:22:05

Sehe ich genauso.

Ich habe zwar durchaus das Bauchgefühl, dass der Markt wieder etwas besser läuft, aber wir sollten die Bilanzen des Q1 unter anderem vor allem auch darauf abklopfen,

1.) inwieweit Abschreibungen auf Lagerbestände vorgenommen werden mussten,

2.) wie sich die Lager volumenseitig verändert haben, soweit das erkennbar ist (ich rechne hier mit einem signifikanten Lageraufbau),

3.) wie sich die DSO entwickelt haben.

Gruß.

[R-BgO]

Incentives in Japan:

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/solar_subsidiaries_failing_to…

[SLGramann]

Das ist wohl das pessimistischtse, was ich bisher gelesen habe:

17 April 2009
Market research firm iSuppli Corp, now expects a major decline in the photovoltaics industry in 2009, due to massive overcapacity, plunging prices and weak demand for solar as a consequence of the global economic recession. Worldwide PV system installations are forecasted to decline to 3.5GW in 2009, down 32% from 5.2GW in 2008. A 12% reduction in the average price per solar watt will also impact global PV revenues, which will drop by a massive 40.2% to $18.2 billion, down from $30.5 billion in 2008.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/major_market_decline_forecast…


Und Rogol sieht weiterhin 12 GW + x...

[SLGramann]

Modulpreise... (da hat wohl jemand die Datenbank aufgeräumt. von den 3 Euro / Watt vom letzten Mal ist nichts mehr zu sehen)

[SLGramann]

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.994.896 von SLGramann am 18.04.09 12:39:38

Hi,

tolle Graphen, aber die geben wohl nur den absoluten Durchschnitt wieder. Selbst in der aktuellen PHOTON (April09) gibt es einen Haufen Komplettsystem für um und unter 3500€/kWp, auch für Kleinanlagen bis 10kW. Die billigsten wollen 29.9kW für ca. 3150€/kW installieren.

Warum bei diesen Preisen keine UNGEHEURE Nachfrage entsteht verstehe ich nicht. Alleine in Deutschland sollte das eine Herrschar bewegen. Wo ist das gane Geld? Wird das nur zum Zocken verwendet und nun lieber in die billigen Aktien investiert?! Hätte ich ein Haus mit Süddach, ich würde nicht zögern, hätte ich Geld. hätte, hätte, hätte

Ich schätze mal, das die kommenden Q-Zahlen eine Wende erkennen lassen werden. Dafür gibt es zuviele Märkte in der Zwischenzeit und soviele Programme.

Und die Einzelunternehmen werden auch bald billiges Silizium in ihren Lagern haben, so dass auch die Wafer-Leute wieder Gewinn machen. Die überlaufenden Lager kann ich nicht einschätzen, das gebe ich zu. Vielleicht sinkt ja mal ein versichertes Schiff mit 1 GW an Modulen, oder wird vor den Küsten Somalias unwiederbringlich entwendet. Dann haben se wenigstens nen Dach überm Kopf in der Regenzeit und wenn mal die Sonne scheint.

Hier illustriert uas Langeweile:
http://www.datafilehost.com/download-13979491.html

[UWR_Kerl]

Um auf meine Frage selbst zurückzukommen:

http://english.eastday.com/e/ICS/u1a4309234.html

Shi von Suntech:

"First of all, let’s explain what is grid parity. The grid parity is like electricity generated by solar to comparable to the electricity price paid today. Like in California for example, we are talking about 50 US cents per kilowatt-hour. In China our target is about 1 RMB per kilowatt-hour. The reason I said 1 RMB is because, in the next few years, conventional electricity price will go up. And electricity from solar will come down; so 1 RMB per kilowatt-hour is reasonable. So that’s grid parity. The reason I believe, initially I think we can reach this target around 2012 timeframe."

1 RMB = 1 Chinese yuan = 0.112350503 Euros ????

[hasenbrot]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.996.068 von UWR_Kerl am 18.04.09 20:00:08

Warum bei diesen Preisen keine UNGEHEURE Nachfrage entsteht verstehe ich nicht.

Na ja, ne Rendite über dem Sparbuch, mehr ist auch bei den aktuellen Preisen nicht zu erreichen.

Habe ein Dach mit optimaler Ausrichtung und Angebote um die 3500€/kwp, die Rendite überzeugt mich trotzdem nicht. Bei unter 3000€ wirds interessant, mal schauen ob wir dort noch hinkommmen......

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.996.068 von UWR_Kerl am 18.04.09 20:00:08

Selbst in der aktuellen PHOTON (April09) gibt es einen Haufen Komplettsystem für um und unter 3500€/kWp, auch für Kleinanlagen bis 10kW.


Ja, aber so weit ich es verstanden habe, schafft man es in Deutschland die Systeme dann für ca. 500 Euro (Extremwert nach unten) bis 1.000 Euro / kW für Wechselrichter, Elektro und Montage aufs Dach zu bekommen. (Warum das überall sonst in der Welt angeblich das Doppelte oder Dreifache kosten muss, entzieht sich gegenwärtig noch meinem Verständnis...)

Wenn Du nun Modulpreise zwischen 2.200 und 2.800 Euro / kW unterstellst, kommst Du somit auf Systempreise von 2.700 bis 3.800 Euro, wobei es jetzt sicher auch mal etwas mehr Marge für die Solateure geben darf, so dass man doch etwas drauflegen kann.

Indes sind die Renditen bei Systempreisen von 3.500 Euro und mehr in Deutschland im Durchschnitt gar nicht sooo wahnsinnig attraktiv, wenn man nicht mit über 1.000 kWh / kW rechnet (wie das scheinbar viele tun), sondern mit 900 oder so... Bei 3.000 Euro / kW dürfte es dagegen in der Tat wirklich spannend sein. Aber das gilt eben alles nur für diesen Kleinkram auf den Einfamilienhausdächern...

Für Großanlagen (Freifläche oder Dach mit über 1 MW) ist die Einspeisevergütung dagegen bescheiden und da sehe ich wirklich attraktive Renditen erst bei Systempreisen von deutlich(!) unter 3.000 Euro / kW, eher erst bei 2.500 Euro /kW und weniger imho.

Und nur diese Großsysteme bringen schnell viel Masse, die den Ausfall Spaniens kompensieren könnte (und nebenbei das EEG zerstören würde...). Systempreise von 2.500 Euro sind für mich indes kaum vorstellbar.

Von daher würde ich vermuten, dass die Nachfrage aus Deutschland nach Modulen relativ gut, aber weit weg von einer "spanischen Hysterie" ist. Dafür sind die Module noch immer zu teuer imho.

Gruß

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.997.372 von SLGramann am 19.04.09 13:13:41

Gute Argumente:

- Dächer machen nur Kleinmist.
- und sind immer noch teuer.
- Und, Großanlagen rechnen sich ebenfalls noch nicht.

Deine Frage bzgl. der hohen Istallationskosten (Wechselrichter, Elektro und Montage) im Ausland kann ich Dir auch nicht beantworten. Zumal in China die Arbeitskraft doch nix kostet außer nem Butterbrot am Tag. In den USA muss man schon 2 Burger zahlen.
Habe irgendwo gelesen, dass nun auch die Wechselrichter deutlich unter Preisdruck geraten sind, da ebenfalls die Zwischenlager voll liegen. K.A. wie und wann das durchschlägt.

[R-BgO]

Motech sieht den aktuellen SI-Spotpreis bei 100 USD/kg:

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090420PD200.html

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.998.207 von UWR_Kerl am 19.04.09 18:56:54

Zumindest in den USA scheinen die Kosten für die Doku ein Faktor zu sein.

Habe gehört, daß man VIER(!) unterschiedlich Abnahmen auf der Baustelle benötigt. Mir ist gar nicht klar, wer da alles kommen könnte.

Auch in Spanien habe ich gerade selber die Erfahrung gemacht, daß man ein technisches Gutachten von einem Ingenieur mit dem Antrag einreichen soll, in dem gott-weiß-was ich-weiß-nicht-wofür dargelegt werden soll. Klar war nur der Angebotspreis dafür: >10.000 Euro für 58kW, also fast 200,-/kW.

Dritter Datenpunkt: Bekomme regelmäßig einen Newsletter von einem australischen Systemanbieter; letzte Woche macht er Werbung für ein Sharp-Modul (130W) zu einem ABSOLUTEN Super-Knaller-Tiefpreis: 4,30 EURO pro Watt. Ähnliches fand SLGramann für Aufdachsysteme in Japan raus.

Tenor: un-entwickelte Märkte produzieren teure Verfahren

[R-BgO]

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/hunting-for-the-next-…

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.997.372 von SLGramann am 19.04.09 13:13:41

zu den BoS-Kosten in den USA:

http://greenlight.greentechmedia.com/2009/04/14/borrego-sola…

[Popeye82]

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.997.372 von SLGramann am 19.04.09 13:13:41

Hallo,

eine kurze Anmerkung:
Bei sämtlichen Kalkulationen wird immer mit 20 Jahren gerechnet. Was ist danach?

Die Anlage produziert immernoch Strom, den man entweder selbst nutzen kann oder ebenfalls wieder verkaufen kann, oder was auch immer in 20 Jahren abgeht.

Aus diesen Gründen, lohnt sich eine Anlage durchaus auch schon heute. Wenn man auf weiter stark fallende Preise hofft, dann solte man noch etwas warten, aber nicht zu lange, da sonst das Einspeisegesetz Geschichte ist.

Also wird auch mit dieser Entscheidung etwas gezockt.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.000.097 von R-BgO am 20.04.09 10:13:10

ebenfalls BOS erwähnt:

http://www.thesolarfuture.com/2009/04/28/interview-barry-cin…

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.058.576 von UWR_Kerl am 28.04.09 23:44:27

Sehr schönes Interview! Danke UWR. Muss daraus gleich was zitieren:


Isn’t the solar industry likely to follow the wind-energy industry soon with more than 90% of the market shared by only 10 major manufacturers?

Why ten? I think there will be only five major manufacturers. In most commoditized markets there are one or two market leaders who make money, a few followers who are slightly better than breakeven, and a bunch of new entrants trying to leverage their technology to get into the top five. The only reason we have so many manufacturers now is that there has been no price competition over the past five years.


"slightly better than breakeven" - so sehe ich es inzwischen eigentlich auch. Das sollte man sich wirklich mal gründlich durch den Kopf gehen lassen...

[R-BgO]

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/sempra-wants-300-mega…

enthält folgenden Absatz:

...
Sempra has also evaluated solar thermal power technologies, which use a field of mirrors to concentrate the sunlight to produce heat for electricity generation. The company has found that using solar panels is the cheaper option, Allman said. He noted that some of the solar-thermal power technologies, such as the use of a central tower for harvesting the heat and generating steam, have yet to be proven commercially.

...

[R-BgO]

Hier wird ein kleiner Überblick zu den Kernaussagen der aktuellen PHOTON-Consulting-Studie gegeben:

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/photon_consulting_picks_low_c…

[R-BgO]

Hier was zu Korea, mit aktuellen Zahlen:

http://www.pvworld.com/index/articles/display/2150111696/s-n…

[SLGramann]

Nach einer monatelangen Diskussion über den Preisverfall in der PV-Branche kommt Photon Consulting nun mit der erstaunlichen These, dass wir genau jetzt im Tal wären und die Modulpreise ab dem 2. Quartal 2009 bis zum Ende 2009 wieder steigen würden.

Konkret sollen die Modulpreise von durchschnittlich 3 Dollar / Watt (global weighted average) in Q1 auf 3,20 Dollar / Watt bis Ende 2009 steigen.

(Die Spotmarktpreise für Silizium sollen von gegenwärtig 115 Dollar / Kilo auf 200 bis 350 Dollar / Kilo bis Jahresende steigen.)

Ich persönlich denke, dass diese Thesen auf fehlerhaften Grundannahmen, insbesondere zur weltweit möglichen Nachfrage, beruhen und dass mit einem signifikanten weiteren Preisverfall zu rechnen ist.

Mich würde aber sehr interessieren, ob andere User Anzeichen entdecken, dass Photon doch recht behalten könnte!


R-BgO,

hast Du möglicherweise Daten über den Si-Spotpreis im April? Im März hatten wir im Schnitt also 115 Dollar mit einer Spanne von ca. 60 bis 150 Dollar. Wenn Ph Con recht behalten sollte, müssten wir ab April ja zumindest eine Stabilisierung sehen...

[JoergP]

Naja, Photon (Consulting) liebt es ja mit gewagten Thesen aufzutreten. Erstaunlich, dass sie jetzt mal von steigenden Preisen reden... die sind doch sonst die ersten, die tönen, dass Module, Silizium, etc. viel zu teuer wären.

Angesichts der Angaben in USD kann aber auch sein, dass sie einfach davon ausgehen, dass diese Währung weiterhin schwach bleibt. In EUR ausgedrückt bleiben die Kosten dann vermutlich eher unverändert.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.122.393 von SLGramann am 07.05.09 18:49:44

Es gab KEINE Stabilisierung, sondern ein weiteres Abrutschen. Allerdings eher langsam und nicht beschleunigt.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.126.408 von R-BgO am 08.05.09 09:21:58

Dank Dir! Ich fürchte, dass sich das Abrutschen in den nächsten Monaten wieder beschleunigen könnte. Ich sehe nicht ein, warum Silizium in Zukunft mehr als 40 bis 50 Dollar / Kilo kosten soll. Denn ich vermute, dass es genug Kapazität gibt, die zu diesen Preisen mit guter Kostendeckung arbeiten kann (Hemlock, Wacker, REC, DC Chemical?). Indes werden so manche neue Si-Projekte, die ja angeblich Kosten von 80 Dollar / Kilo aufweisen, wohl gegen die Wand fahren.

[R-BgO]

Was zu Italien:

http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE5453J5…

[SLGramann]

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.135.568 von SLGramann am 09.05.09 08:27:18

Die Modulpreise, insbesondere der chineischen Hersteller, waren im April offenbar weiter im freien Fall.

Bei den Chinesen dürfte es aber auch einen, wenn auch kleinen, Dollar-Effekt geben, den die US-Währung hat sich ja auf ca. 1,33 Dollar verschlechtert. Joerg hatte schon auf diesen Effekt hingewiesen.

Generell würde ich sagen, dass die deutschen und US-Hersteller vor der Kombination der chinesischen Produktionskapazität, des dortigen Kostenniveaus und des immer billigeren Siliziums panische Angst haben sollten.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.135.572 von SLGramann am 09.05.09 08:32:38

Wo hast Du die Charts her? Kann man da mal selbst gucken?

[R-BgO]

Mal ein etwas langfristigerer Gedanke:

Wie ist das eigentlich, wenn man sich jetzt eine Anlage zulegt, deren Rendite auf einem regulierten kWh-Preis beruht, der WEIT vom Marktpreis weg ist,

UND

es kommt zu starker Inflation? (die man eigentlich erwarten muss)


Das bedeutet doch, daß der Zahlungsstrom, den ich als Investor gegen die Investition heute eintausche, immer weniger wert wird, oder?

In dem Moment, wo die inflationierten Preise auch den echten Marktwert erreichen und der dann ÜBER dem regulierten Preis liegt, ändert sich das Bild und ein Inflationsschutz beginnt zu wirken. Vorausgesetzt, ich bekomme den Strom dann zu einem solchen Preis los.


Entscheidend für den Zeitpunkt ist aber wahrscheinlich nicht der oft angenommene Nominalpreis der inkrementellen kWh auf unserer Stromrechnung ("Retail-grid-parity"), sondern ein Preis der auch die Kosten für Netz und back-up Kapazitäten enthält.

Je nachdem, wieviel Jahre man kaufkraftmäßig draufzahlt, könnte also auch eine vermeintlich attraktive Investition zu 6-7% Rendite heute auf die gesamte Laufzeit ein schlechtes Geschäft sein.

Man darf einfach nicht vergessen, wie LANG 20 Jahre (oder mehr) sind....



PS:
In einer Deflation hat man natürlich den Jackpot; wirtschaftlich ist es dann ein gesetzlich garantierter Kredit, vergeben zu einem Satz der den bei Staatsanleihen vielleicht ums doppelte übertrifft.

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.135.963 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 11:10:35

http://www.pvxchange.com/de/index.php/preisnavigator.html

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.135.963 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 11:10:35

http://www.pvxchange.com/de/index.php/preisindex_2.html

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.011 von lieberlong am 09.05.09 11:22:53

THX!

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.135.996 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 11:20:51

es kommt zu starker Inflation? (die man eigentlich erwarten muss)


Für dieses Szenario wäre ein hoher Anteil von Fremdkapital bei der Anlagenfinanzierung äusserst vorteilig. Am besten noch ein Keller voller Batterien dazu, um den erzeugten Strom auch selbst zu verbrauchen.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.126.408 von R-BgO am 08.05.09 09:21:58

contract reference-price war 60$ nach 63$

spot war 93$ nach 115$

beide ranges haben sich deutlich verengt;


hast du übrigens die Skurilität in den Wacker-Zahlen gesehen?

Da Siltronic ihre internen Abnahmeverpflichtungen bei Polysilicon mangels Aufträgen nicht erfüllen konnte, haben die die Überschußmengen am Spotmarkt verwertet.

Der dabei wiederum erzielte Überschußgewinn führte zu einer Teilabführung von 23 Mio. an Siltronic.

Schon lustig, oder?

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.135.568 von SLGramann am 09.05.09 08:27:18

Bei dem Spread kann einem schon übel werden.

2,70 zu 2,20 = 22,7%

im Oktober waren es ca.

3,20 zu 3,00 = 6,7%

Irgendwann muss das doch kanllen, oder?

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.073 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 11:39:59

Na, da ist mit der lieberlong mit dem Link ja zuvorgekommen.

Zur Inflation/Deflation: Sehe ich ganz genauso. Allerdings kaufen professionelle Anleger für hunderte Milliarden Dollar auch 30jährige Bonds mit 4,3% Rendite. Was da mit den Kursen passiert, wenn die Inflation anzieht... das könnte eines Tages die wirklich wichtigen Depots der Welt in ziemliche Unordnung bringen (was nicht wirklich lustig ist).

Danke für die genauen Si-Preise. Wacker hatte ich mir nicht im Detail angeschaut. Dass aus der Chip-Industrie eine ganze Menge Silizium auf den Spotmarkt drängt, habe ich jetzt schon mehrfach gelesen. Ich gehe davon aus, dass demnächst auch Silizium aus der PV-Industrie auf den Spotmarkt geschüttet wird, sobald niemand mehr Lust und Kraft hat, die Lager immer weiter aufzublähen und auf ein Anspringen der Nachfrage zu hoffen.

Bis Jahresende sollen laut Photon Consulting jeden Monat 12.000 Tonnen Silizium produziert werden, was für 1,3 GW Module pro Monat reichen würde. Dünnschicht kommt natürlich noch dazu. Das ist ein totaler Amoklauf imho. Eine Menge Si-Hersteller werden krachend gegen die Wand fahren.

Was den Spread angeht: Sehe ich genauso. Das ist nicht aufrecht zu erhalten, weil es wirtschaftlich nicht zu begründen ist. Da spielen die Psychologie und vielleicht auch Verträge eine verzerrende Rolle. Aber so etwas trägt nicht. Die Prämie für deutsche, japanische und US-Hersteller ist viel zu hoch und die Anpassung wird m.E. nach unten erfolgen und nicht nach oben.

Ich bin sehr, sehr gespannt auf die Q1-Zahlen der Chinesen! Mal sehen, wie sehr die die Kosten wirklich drücken konnten. Habe vor kurzem schon im Suntech-Thread vorgeschlagen, im Gegensatz zum Analysten-Konsens, bei dem Unternehmen von einem geringfügig positiven Ergebnis auszugehen.

Aus meiner Sicht läuft alles in Richtung Verdrängungswettbewerb: Angebot und Nachfrage sind absolut nicht im Gleichgewicht. Da muss Angebot aus dem Markt raus - und zwar auf allen Prozess-Stufen.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.238 von SLGramann am 09.05.09 12:23:05

Bis Jahresende sollen laut Photon Consulting jeden Monat 12.000 Tonnen Silizium produziert werden, was für 1,3 GW Module pro Monat reichen würde.


Derzeit 7.000 Tonnen.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.073 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 11:39:59

Das ist wahrhaftig ein grosser unterschied...Aber ich frage mich warum dann noch jemand silicon modules kaufen sollte die nicht aus china kommen...was habe ich den fuer einen vorteil wenn ich Q-cells o. Solarworld module habe....anstatt welche von STP o. TSL...(das ist keine rhetorische frage) wuerde mich sehr interessieren...nicht nur weil ich ausschlieslich chinesische solar firmen im depot habe...aber auch weil ich gegen ende des jahres (ich erwarte weiter fallenede preise auch wenn mehr demand aufkommt weil wie von euch schon angesprochen sind die kapitzitaeten einfach zu hoch in der branche) solarmodule fuers haus kaufen moechte...mfg CW

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.275 von dicki31785 am 09.05.09 12:36:20

Das hat mit den Vertriebskanälen zu tun.

Wenn Dein Kumpel vom Doppelkopfabend beim Handwerker um die Ecke nach einem Angebot für "so'ne Solaranlage" fragt, was wird er erhalten?

Wenn der Anbieter bisher und schon lange bei Solarworld, Aleo, o.ä. gekauft hat und er vielleicht auch nochwas von denen am Lager hat, wird er die Chinesen entweder gar nicht erst anbieten, oder in der Art:

"Hier ist die deutsche Qualitätsware und da gibt es zwar billigere chinesische, ABER wie gut die sind, kann ich nicht garantieren... Stimmt, der Preisunterschied ist schon groß, aber die Anlage muss ja 20 Jahre halten: Wollen Sie das Risiko wirklich eingehen?"

Habe mal von einem Großhändler gehört, daß ihm seine Kunden die Solarworld-Module "blind" abkaufen.

Wie groß der REALE Unterschied ist? Schwer zu sagen. Bin persönlich davon überzeugt, daß es wesentlich mehr auf die Qualität des Moduls ankommt, als auf die Zelle. Bin aber ausdrücklich KEIN Fachmann.

Denke nur, daß die Halbleiterkomponente "Zelle" ziemlich inert sein sollte. Wenn aber das Paket außenrum, das der Umwelt ausgesetzt ist, nicht aus besten Materialien besteht und bestens verarbeitet ist, dann kann das Modul vorzeitig kaputt gehen.

Weiter muss man wissen, daß viele "deutsche" Module zumindest früher sowieso auch in Asien zusammengeschraubt wurden und vielleicht auch noch werden.

So scheint ja z.B. Q-Cells auch auf die Fähigkeiten von Solarfun zu vertrauen.

Wie gesagt, ich denke es geht um die Stärke der Vertriebsposition. Wer immer den "customer" "owned", der gewinnt. Aber man kann den Bogen auch überspannen....

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.275 von dicki31785 am 09.05.09 12:36:20

PS: ich habe Yingli auf dem Dach

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.373 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 13:03:31

wie lange ist den die hersteller garantie auf module....sollte doch 20 jahre sein oder...natuerlich sind die mehrkosten fuer austausch usw damit nicht in der rechnung drin...aber die garantie sollte doch bestand haben oder?

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.416 von dicki31785 am 09.05.09 13:13:33

na ja;

ERSTENS mußt Du mitkriegen, daß die Dinger nicht tun, wie sie sollten

ZWEITENS mußt Du es dem Verkäufer dann beweisen

DRITTENS kriegst Du im Zweifel eine ungünstige Lösung (denn: ein neues Modul zwischen 10 alte ist murks; eins rausnehmen auch, ...)

VIERTENS ist selbst innerhalb der üblichen Garantie ein enormes Divergenzpotential (ob die degradation nur 2% oder 5% oder 10% beträgt, macht einen erheblichen Unterschied)

=> entscheidend ist also tatsächlich die QUALITÄT (die REALE, nicht die vom Marketing suggerierte), denn WENN Du auf die Garantie zurückgreifen mußt, dann ist das schon Sch...e!

Und natürlich muß es Deinen Gewährsträger dann auch noch geben.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.447 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 13:19:21

hmmm sehr interessant...mein gewaehrtraeger waere aber doch der hersteller oder?!?mfg CW

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.457 von dicki31785 am 09.05.09 13:21:28

ja, letzlich wird es wohl der (rechtliche) Hersteller sein

den konkreten Weg der Geltendmachung kenne ich nicht; dürfte vom Einzelfall abhängen

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.892 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 15:47:54

hast du je probleme mit deinen yingli panels gehabt...und wie lange hast du die schon?danke fuer all die auskunft...mfg CW

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.137.033 von dicki31785 am 09.05.09 16:46:44

dicki, wenn Du eine eigene Anlage planst, empfehle ich folgende Seite:


http://www.photovoltaikforum.com/

Schau Dich einfach im Forum um, am Anfang vor allem in den Foren Module und Angebote. Da kannst Du viel mitnehmen, glaube ich.

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.136.373 von R-BgO am 09.05.09 13:03:31

So scheint ja z.B. Q-Cells auch auf die Fähigkeiten von Solarfun zu vertrauen

Solarfun wohl eher daher, dass Good Energies auch bei SOLF Grossaktionär ist. Das gleiche Spiel jetzt mit Sontor/Sunfilm.

Solarworld hat imho das stärkste branding der Branche. Nächste Saison noch Sponsor vom FC Köln und einer US-Mannschaft. Der Photon-Sieg lässt nun noch mehr "blind" kaufen.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.137.595 von lieberlong am 09.05.09 20:39:51

Yup,

Solarworld ist der bekannteste Solarkonzern in Deutschland. Die Werbung scheint zu helfen. Nach der aktuellen "Photon" nennt jeder 10te Herrn Asbecks Laden zuerst. Ein riesen Bonbon war sicher auch Opel übernehmen zu wollen. Oder dem Papst zu verstromen, erst mit nem Geschenk und bald mit 100MW. ...

Schönes Woe.


P.S.: Was sind schon ein paar Prozent Rendite rauf oder runter?! Ich schließe mich der UAssgae an, dass 20 Jahre eine verdammt lange Zeit ist und man diese nicht wirklich planen kann. Wer hat unsere jetzige Situation vor 2 Jahren erwartet??? Ich denke, dass eine Investition in ein PV-Anlage sinnvoll ist, und man vielleicht nicht auf die letzten Prozent geiern sollte. Wenn man immer beay kauft, ist man auch oft enttäuscht. Ich denke so ist das mit China und co. auch. Dies ist kein Aufruf das teuerste vom Teueren zu kaufen, aber evtl. im Mittelfeld auf Testergebnisse zu vertrauen und sich zu informieren, z.b. in besagtem Forum oder "Stress-Tests"

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.137.794 von UWR_Kerl am 09.05.09 22:04:58

Ein riesen Bonbon war sicher auch Opel übernehmen zu wollen.

Die Publicity (durch diesen "Gag") hat einen Marketing-Wert von 100 Mio. € und die Qualität der Produkte ist unumstritten!



P.S.: Neben SMA mein absolutes Langzeitinvestment.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.137.033 von dicki31785 am 09.05.09 16:46:44

nein, bis jetzt nicht.

sind seit Nov 2007 auf dem Dach

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.137.794 von UWR_Kerl am 09.05.09 22:04:58

Du hast Recht mit der Aussage "nicht aufs letzte Prozent geiern"

Aber wenn man bei der Investition vielleicht 10% oder sogar 15% einsparen kann, dann liefert das Puffer für spätere Unwägbarkeiten.

Und wenn man wie ich -vielleicht untypisch für Privatkunden- mit IRRs rechnet, dann machen selbst 30% Differenz in 18 Jahren nicht mehr viel aus.

Und die Renditen sind eh' mau; bei meienr Anlage rechne ich mit ca. 5% vor Steuern. Wenn ich da 10% mehr bezahle, dann würde ICH es lassen.

[SLGramann]

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.143.209 von SLGramann am 11.05.09 12:29:37

Oha, der Ausblick auf Ende Mai sieht ja beeindruckend aus. Jetzt gehts wohl definitiv unter die 2 Euro-Marke...

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.143.218 von SLGramann am 11.05.09 12:30:50

In der aktuellen PHOTON steht was von einem Chinesen, der für 1,55/W anbietet. Allerdings no-name.

[R-BgO]

zwar alt, aber gut:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2007/11/interesting-survey-f…


Thanks to reader AJ for highlighting an interesting survey from the Chinese solar makers [88% of Greater China Solar Panel Suppliers Set to Lower or Stabilize Prices]

* Despite higher polysilicon prices, most Greater China solar panel manufacturers say they plan to lower or keep prices steady to win market share.
* The Report shows 88 percent of suppliers plan to decrease or keep prices stable, while only 12 percent plan to increase prices.
* "With the polysilicon shortage expected to continue until 2009, most manufacturers are implementing measures to streamline production," said Report publisher, Spenser Au. "These include expanding to gain economies of scale, backward integration and R&D to produce thinner solar cells that require less polysilicon."
* Au said: "Manufacturers are generally optimistic, with 97 percent expecting exports to increase over the next 12 months. However, with excess capacity in the high double-digits, a larger number of suppliers are reducing prices to gain orders."
* What are the major concerns over next 12 months? Investors would think polysilicon pricing but in fact that is #2 (25%), #1 is price competition (60%)

I outlined my longer term theory earlier this week [Motley Fool on China Sunergy]

While this will take a long time (years) to play out, my vision is eventually the leaders with scale will get their cost structure down to a point where they can lower average selling prices (ASPs) to a point where it will cripple the small fry in the pond[/u]. Some of these smaller companies are having major trouble building their product above cost (gross margins very low), and while the drop in polysilicon prices (65-75% of costs for many Chinese solar companies) will help these smaller companies, it will also be helping the larger companies. So right when these small fry get to the point where their margins reach levels the leaders are enjoying now (1-2 years from now), the leaders will already be onto the next step - expanding volume by dropping prices. And this will mean another crippling era for the smaller players. Even if the overall pie of solar is growing. Again, just a theory but this is how all commodity businesses work, and solar should be no different in the 'long run'.

The counter argument has been, well the pie is growing so quickly everyone can win. I find that amusing at best; dangerous at worst. While the pie will be growing, and should be growing for decades there can be periods of time (2-3-4 years) where manufacturing capacity far outweighs demand. What happens in those time frames? Basic economics suggest, prices will drop. In fact, I think this would already be happening if not for the shortages in polysilicon - what is perceived as a bad thing (due to the high costs solar panel makers have to pay for their main cost input) is in fact limiting the supply of product. Once these supply shortages are taken care of in the next 18-36 months, the world will be awash in panels. And yes, demand will be increasing for solar products as well, but all you need is an 18 month period where world demand is lagging supply to seriously impair business operations for those without size/scale/cash hordes. We could be entering (soon enough) an era where we have enough supply of panels (in say 2009/2010) to satisfy a level of demand that will be seen in 2013/2014. Don't think this is possible? I liken this to the global glut of fiber we had in the world in the late 90s/early 00's. In the rush to build out the internet, billions upon billions (financed by cheap money and over eager capitalists) of fiber cable was laid out across the world, by land and by sea. The idea was eventually all this cable would be needed as the internet exploded. They were right, it was needed - but they were about a half decade too early. And most companies building these networks either shrunk dramatically or went out of business completely. It is all about timing.

Again, I am a solar bull - but to read the simplistic analysis of "we need alternative energy, every solar company will be a winner" is frightening. There will be winners and losers. This happens in every industry. There will be times when every stock in the sector rises up, as people forget fundamentals and buy any company even loosely affiliated with the sector. That's fine for speculation but for an investing thesis, it will be dangerous to your portfolio. Over time winners will emerge and those jostling at the lower end will be fighting amongst each other for scraps. Think Intel vs AMD but think of 30-50 AMDs coming down the pike. Will all these capacity eventually be needed? Surely! Solar is only a fraction of a fraction of worldwide energy use. But will over eager capitalists (even in China) overbuild (too early) in the quest for riches? I am sure of that as well. And at some points over the coming decade, supply will outstrip demand for shorter periods of times (by shorter I mean quarters or 1-2 years) and in those times the smaller companies will be seeing serious pain. Some will probably weaken to a point they falter completely or get bought out at a serious discount by stronger players.

I wrote in last week's piece on Suntech Power (STP) [Suntech Power Reports Outstanding Results] that in fact, if I were a larger player I would inflict some of this pain myself - the more smaller players you drive out the larger market share you will eventually have to yourself for the "really long" term.

At this point, if I were one of the larger players, I'd be lowering Average Selling Prices (ASPs) in 2008/2009 to crush my smaller competitors over the next 2-3 year period, and then once they are weakened, grab as much market share as possible in this commodity business for the years ahead... sort of what a small company you might of heard of before did... Intel.

So how do you best increase your odds of finding the eventual winners? Look at size / scale / leadership / research & development / gross margins "today" - some of the companies I have written about in the blog are making their number by 'accounting' mechanisms - i.e. currency gains or by not spending much at all on R&D. While this appeases a very short sighted investor base who only cares about your next 90 days (the only thing that matters is the next quarter type of thinking), in the long run this is a commodity business and those not spending real money to continue to find efficiencies and improve their manufacturing process will end up being the long term losers. Even as giddy speculators are happy they "beat the numbers" this quarter and never read past the headline number.

Again, my theories on what will happen in this industry won't be proven correct or incorrect for a few years - but these are the realities that have occurred in every commodity business, regardless of the size of the overall pie. To think solar is somehow immune is simply putting your head in the sand. Remember... the hordes of Chinese/Taiwanese are coming... more competition = more pressure on prices.

This year alone, the number of solar companies in Taiwan has tripled, to more than 20. "It's incredible," says Tsai. "Even some companies, I cannot remember the names. It's really very hot."

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.157.211 von R-BgO am 12.05.09 18:18:51

Das ist von November 2007!

[king_of_fools]

Für mich ein wenig überraschend:

http://www.presseportal.de/pm/51135/1406692/bundesverband_er…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">
http://www.presseportal.de/pm/51135/1406692/bundesverband_er…

17.05.2009 | 14:10 Uhr
FDP-Parteitag für Erhalt des EEG
BEE begrüßt parteiübergreifendes Bekenntnis zu Fördersystem für Erneuerbare Energie

Berlin (ots) - Der Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energie e.V. (BEE) begrüßt die heutige Entscheidung des FDP-Bundesparteitags in Hannover, sich im Wahlprogramm für den Erhalt des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes (EEG) auszusprechen. Nach kontroverser Debatte unterstütze eine knappe Mehrheit der Delegierten den Antrag des Bundestagsabgeordneten Horst Meyerhofer, das ursprünglich im Wahlprogamm vorgesehene Mengensteuerungsmodell zu streichen und mit dem EEG weiterhin auf das effizienteste Instrument zur Förderung Erneuerbarer Energien im Stromsektor zu setzen.

"Mit dem verabschiedeten Wahlprogramm erkennen auch die Liberalen endlich Wirksamkeit und Effizienz des EEG an. Damit gibt es nun quer durch alle Parteien im Bundestag ein klares Bekenntnis zu diesem Förderinstrument, das inzwischen weltweit viele Nachahmer gefunden hat", zeigt sich BEE-Geschäftsführer Björn Klusmann erleichtert. Erst das EEG habe dafür gesorgt, dass große Mengen privaten Kapitals in den Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien geflossen seien. Davon habe in erster Linie die mittelständische Wirtschaft in Deutschland profitiert. "Das haben wohl auch viele Delegierte in der FDP so gesehen und sich deshalb für den entsprechenden Änderungsantrag entschieden", folgert Klusmann.

Pressekontakt:

Björn Klusmann,
Geschäftsführer Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energie e.V.,
Tel: [phone] Fax: -20,
E-Mail: [e-mail],
Internet: www.bee-ev.de

P.S.: Ich werde die FDP trotzdem nicht wählen, auch wenn mich der Kurswechsel bzgl. des EEG natürlich freut.
Grüße kof

[R-BgO]

Infobits aus den CC's:

-Aleo spricht von aktuell EUR 2,40 als VK für deutsche Module


-Phoenix spricht von einem "break-even"-Punkt von EUR 1,70, ab dem man wieder von FSLR zurück auf c-SI gehen würde;
der galt aber VOR den letzten Preissenkungen von FSLR; diese sind angeblich im zweistellingen %-Bereich, was zu einem neuen "tipping-point" von unter 1,60 führen würde

-Bos-Kosten scheinen massiv runterzugehen; Phoenix spricht von 20-30% Ersparnis für "cabling costs"


-Centrotherm spricht von aktuell 55-65 EUR für LT-poly-contracts

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.199.830 von R-BgO am 18.05.09 15:38:23

Aleo spricht von aktuell EUR 2,40 als VK für deutsche Module


Aleo hat laut Q-Bericht 11,3 MW produziert und 9,5 MW verkauft. Sie haben in Q1 einen Umsatz von 30,6 Mio. Euro erzielt. Das wären 3,22 Euro / Watt gewesen...

Was ist falsch an meiner Rechnung?

-------------

Danke für die Infos! 2,40 Euro für deutsche Module ist ja sicher "factory gate" - das wäre dann im Großhandel 2,64 Euro und für den Endkunden 2,90 Euro - wenn man jeweils 10% Händlermarge unterstellt. Das scheint schon alles zu passen, mit dem was wir sonst so lesen. Nur eben nicht mit den Zahlen, die ich oben ausgerechnet habe - oder hatte Aleo so eine hohe Prämie in Q1? Unvorstellbar eigentlich...

PS: Verdienen tun die deutschen Modulhersteller indes offenbar derzeit nichts...

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.199.946 von SLGramann am 18.05.09 15:50:07

ich weiß es auch nicht; ein Effekt könnte im OEM-Anteil stecken; der war früher knapp 20%

[R-BgO]

Solar's New Important Players: Chevron, Lockheed Martin
by: Greentech Media May 18, 2009 | about stocks: ABGOF.PK / ACXIF.PK / CEYHF.PK / CVX / IBDRY.PK / KWT / LMT / TAN
Greentech Media


By Daniel Englander

Depending on whom you ask, Bechtel, Chevron (CVX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) are either three of the most respected or most reviled companies in Corporate America. They employ thousands of people; provide technology and resources essential for America's continued ability to assert itself on the world stage; and play a key role in shaping federal policy and regulations on energy, the environment, national security and defense, and the economy. The constant demand for large infrastructure, oil and advanced weapons systems doesn't hurt either – especially considering how the U.S. Government usually needs some advanced weapons to defend the large infrastructure used to extract oil.

But peel back the onion a little more and you will find Bechtel, Chevron and Lockheed Martin have something else in common: They are all important players in the U.S. solar industry and, taken together, represent a trend whose strength is positively correlated with the deepness of the recession. Chevron Energy Solutions is one of the California Solar Initiative's most active installers, with 87 large-scale PV projects at some stage in the program. Bechtel is not so secretly working with a well-known Chinese solar company on its U.S. projects. Lockheed Martin has taken its expertise designing PV arrays for space applications to the utility-scale market, partnering with Starwood Energy to offer packaged engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) and structured financing deals.

What each of these companies possesses, and what makes them a threat to pure-play PV project developers, installers and EPC contractors, are enormous balance sheets and considerable expertise designing, building and managing complex projects. Why are these qualities important? First, consider the development of the U.S. PV market. Solar installations in the U.S. are trending larger over time. In 2007, nearly 35 percent of U.S. PV projects were between 1 kilowatt and 20 kilowatts, 60 percent were between 20 kilowatts and 2 megawatts, and 5 percent were larger than 2 megawatts. By 2012, GTM Research and the Prometheus Institute estimate 30 percent of cumulative projects in the U.S. will be ground-mount systems, while residential systems will comprise close to 20 percent of the market and large rooftop projects will make up around 50 percent of total installations. Large ground-mount and rooftop systems are the fastest growing segments of the U.S. market, and will represent the highest percentage of installations of the 5.4 gigawatts of cumulative capacity we estimate will be added by 2012. When the shovel hits the dirt on most of these projects, it is more likely the hard hats will bear the Bechtel logo than that of Namaste Solar.

The experience of another large-scale market bears this out. Spain's pre-September 2009 feed-in tariff incentivized big projects – most systems installed in Spain during the PV gold rush were between 5 megawatts and 10 megawatts. And while a number of pure-play developers, including Fotowatio, Renovalia, Conergy (CEYHF.PK) and Phoenix Solar stamped their names on some of that market's biggest projects, the impact of energy and industrial conglomerates did not go unnoticed. Consider that Acciona (ACXIF.PK), Iberdrola (IBDRY.PK), Abengoa (ABGOF.PK) and Elecnor were established infrastructure firms building transmission lines, dams, highways, bridges and fossil fuel power stations long before they became big players in the downstream PV market. In other words, experience counts.

The second reason is directly related to the current state of the credit markets. Asset financing has contracted significantly from its peak in early 2008 and tax equity has virtually disappeared from the market. Scarce capital and tight credit are forcing bank credit committees to pass on projects they would have approved only 12 months ago. The few projects receiving second looks now are airtight, addressing each project risk aspect. Important among these is EPC and supplier risk: Can the engineer credibly guarantee system performance? Will the O&M contractor be solvent in two years, five years or 20 years from now to service the project? How able is the EPC firm to guarantee construction deadlines and system costs? An industrial contractor like H&M Company or Mortenson Construction might be able to check all these boxes and back it up with construction financing where a smaller PV integrator might not.

This is not to say that today's installers and integrators are on the losing side of a difficult battle. It's quite the opposite, actually. In addition to continuing their domination of the rooftop market, pure-play PV project companies have a number of competitive advantages over their newer, larger rivals – experience navigating a byzantine array of state solar policies, PV-specific system engineering expertise, creative and innovative business models for getting projects done with scarce capital, and track records working with a global module and component supply industry – just to name a few. Additionally, some the of the heavy hitters with deep pockets, like SunEdison or a+f GmbH, will compete aggressively and well against these new entrants.

The entrance of companies like Bechtel and Lockheed Martin to the solar industry is a net positive for the industry. A recent survey report (.pdf) from the Solar Electric Power Association found, among other things, that "utilities do not have as much faith in the abilities of solar developers and EPC contractors as they do in the abilities of similar entities in the coal and combustion turbine industries." In planning the build out of large-scale PV, which we believe will occur in the U.S. within the next four years, utilities and independent power producers, at least initially, will turn to companies they have turned to for decades to build their power stations. Over the long term this competitive situation may play out differently, but for now the barbarians have breached the walls and their presence is not as bad as one might expect.

[hasenbrot]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.199.946 von SLGramann am 18.05.09 15:50:07

das wäre dann im Großhandel 2,64 Euro und für den Endkunden 2,90 Euro

die Zeiten sind vorbei, aktuell liegt der Preis für die Endkunden bei um die 2,6€

mir wurden die letzen Tage Komplettanlagen im Bereich von 10-20kw/p mit dt. Modulen für 3400-3500€ angeboten...

[R-BgO]

SPI im Mai von $93 auf $79 für spot.

Contract fast stabil.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.205.098 von R-BgO am 19.05.09 08:29:03

Aus der Meldung zum Q1 von Solarfun:


Polysilicon prices on the spot market are currently below $70 per kilogram.

Diesmal hat sich Rogol aber ganz grausig verzockt. Das wird ihm nachhaltig schaden.

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.205.098 von R-BgO am 19.05.09 08:29:03

Hast du Zugriff auf diesen Silicon Price Index? Oder beziehst du dich auf die News von Digitimes?

May 6, 10:34
In the international spot market of solar-grade polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si), prices have dropped from US$90-100/kg in the first quarter of 2009 to US$80-90/kg currently, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.235.644 von Soulrider82 am 22.05.09 18:36:42

Ersteres.

[Istanbul]

Ich habe mir gerade das Transcript des Conference Call von LDK gegeben. Schon fast schockierend.

Rein von der Bilanz kann der Laden bereits jetzt jederzeit platzen, wenn die chinesische Regierung über die Banken nicht stützt. Ein Zusammenbruch eines großen Wafer- oder Zellenherstellers wäre dann wohl das Fanal zum endgültigen Einbruch der Preise auf Endkundenseite, da dann die Überschusskapazitäten der poly-Si-Vorlieferanten auf dem spot Markt landen. So scheidet dann einer nach dem anderen der langen Kontrakte aus dem Rennen aus. Auf Modulseite ist der Markt dagegen imho weitgehend bereinigt.

Ich sehe weiterhin keine Alternative zu dem Szenario, dass die Preise bei poly-Si auf unter 40$ runter müssen, damit per Wp Wafer deutlich unter die 1$ und Module deutlich unter die 2$.

Marktwirtschaft funktioniert eben doch. Auf der kapitalintensiven Seite der Kette (Silizium, Wafer, Zelle) kann es eigentlich nur dicke rote Zahlen bei knapp positiven EBITDA-Margen geben.

Mal schaun.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.235.887 von Istanbul am 22.05.09 19:10:11

Zu Dokumentationszwecken aus dem LDK-CC:


Jesse Pichel - Piper Jaffray

Jack, if you could bear with this question for just a second. So if your ASP was $1.54, and you were basically breakeven, so let’s say your costs were 1.50 and we know your non-silicon costs right, they have been running around $0.30 to $0.40, that means your poly price at 6 grams a watt, 6.5 grams a watt is something like mid 100s, which you seem to validate there.

Now you’re going to have ASPs go down a little bit, even though you can keep a premium, but what’s the outlook there for the poly price? Do you have to continue to write-down that inventory from 1.70 now to the low $100 level in order to maintain a breakeven gross margin? Am I thinking about that the right way or?

Jack Lai

At this moment, as you know the market price is probably somewhere below 100 and we are getting the new purchase at such a level. Based on the accounting method that we have, we believe that in the next few quarters, that the average cost of all polysilicon will continue to drop.

Jesse Pichel - Piper Jaffray

So, we can expect to write-off about $50 a kilo, times the, call it 1700 metric tons that’s in inventory? Is that the way to think about it?

Jack Lai

Well, write-down is already assessed and completed in Q4 of 2008. At this moment, at a current price range of $1.10 to $1.30, we do not expect to any further write-downs based on the current market price.

Jesse Pichel - Piper Jaffray

But you said that the cost in inventory was mid 100s right. So $0.15 a gram, lets just say times 6.5 grams is $0.97 just in poly, so how can there not be another write-down?

Jack Lai

Keep in mind that our price in Q1 was $1.54. So, if you based on your calculation, that even at say $100 cost for us will be somewhere $1.10, $1.20, which will make a very small gross margin, which exactly is the situation that we are facing today. So you’re right; our cost is very close to the ASP at this moment, hence we are talking about low single-digits gross margin until the market condition improves.


--------------------

@Istanbul,

da stimme ich Dir zu. Die Siliziumpreise werden voraussichtlich noch in diesem Jahr auf cash-Kosten-Niveau fallen. Rogol argumentiert ja immer, dass man aus dem Umstand, dass das bisher noch nicht passiert war, schließen müsse, dass Angebot und Nachfrage durchaus im Gleichgewicht sein. Was er m.E. (erstaunlicherweise) nicht berücksichtigt hat, ist, dass der Lageraufbau auf allen Stufen der Prozesskette eine Art "künstlicher Nachfrage" erzeugt hat, die aber keinen Bestand haben kann. Egal, welche Lieferverträge da bestehen - am Ende bricht die wirtschaftliche Realität alle papiernen Versprechungen. Auf diesen Umstand hatte in diesem Thread schon mal St.Laurent (oder ähnlich) vor fast einem Jahr hingewiesen.

Die Verträge brechen aber eben erst am Ende und nicht am Anfang der Probleme - und diese zeitliche Verzögerung hat die Si-Preise stabilisiert, nicht etwa eine hinreichende Nachfrage. Die gibt es nämlich nicht mal ansatzweise.

Fazit:

Modulpreise allgemein unter 2 Dollar? Das dürfte spätestens Anfang 2010 der Fall sein.

[SLGramann]

PVExchange erwartet fürs erste eine Stabilisierung der Modulpreise.

Hätte ich nicht gedacht. Insbesondere, wenn man bedenkt, dass beim gegenwärtigen Dollarkurs hier ja nun über 3,30 Dollar / Watt aufgerufen sind (Großhandel). Ob sich das bestätigen wird?

[SLGramann]

BOS USA / Deutschland

PV-Tech berichtet von Vorveranstaltungen zur Intersolar folgendes:


Highlights of Milner's presentation included his prediction of €2-per-watt total system cost by 2013-14 in Germany. He also sees a significant parallel between the current US market and the German market in 2002. As a result, he believes that the nearly 50% cost portion of BOS components in the US will come down in the next few years to 25%, which is in line with German installations.


Das es zwischen Deutschland und anderen Ländern extreme Unterschiede beim BOS gibt, das wissen wir schon lange. Verstehen kann ich es aber nach wie vor nicht. Eine Angleichung wäre dringend nötig, sonst wird das nicht viel mit PV in USA und im Rest der Welt...

[R-BgO]

* June 3, 2009, 9:43 AM ET

Solar Comeback? New Deals and Optimism in the Solar-Power Patch


By Keith Johnson

Is the solar-power market showing signs of life?

Let’s see. This morning, SolarCity, a provider of small-scale solar installations for homes and businesses announced the rarest of catches: A financial institution willing and able to provide tax-equity financing for renewable-energy development. SolarCity teamed up with U.S. Bancorp Community Development Corporation to launch a tax-equity fund that will fuel “hundreds and hundreds” of new solar projects, SolarCity chief executive Lyndon Rive told us.

The companies wouldn’t disclose the amount of the fund, but said they “expect it to finance more solar projects in 2009 than any other tax equity fund in the U.S.” One big selling point in the current climate? The bottom line, not environmental piety. “Green is good, but that only takes you so far. You have to save customers money,” Mr. Rive said. SolarCity’s no-money-down installations save customers 10%-15% on their power bills, he said.

Other solar executives are also showing signs of optimism about a solar resurgence—if not for this year, then definitely for 2010. “Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S. market tripled off of this year,” Suntech Power Holdings strategy officer Steven Chan told Reuters.

The biggest damper this year is financing. SolarCity’s deal has nothing to do with the balyhooed and much-awaited stimulus package, designed to jumpstart investment in clean energy. Everybody in the sector is still waiting for the government to lay out the ground rules sometime this summer, which will limit the stimulus bill’s impact to the last quarter or two of the year.

Will China’s newfound love of clean energy come to the rescue? China is already bolstering support for solar power, which lags far behind wind power there, by announcing generous new feed-in tariffs. China’s coffers might also underwrite solar development elsewhere. From Reuters:

For its part, Suntech said it was seeking between $200 million and $500 million from Chinese banks to help fund solar projects outside of China. “They are now open to funding for overseas projects and overseas trade finance,” Mr. Chan said of the discussions the company is having with Chinese banks. “It’s just a question of their due diligence and getting them comfortable with the projects.”

[R-BgO]

Solar cell spot price drops to US$1.4/W


Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 3 June 2009]

China- and Taiwan-based makers of polycrystalline silicon solar cells offered spot market quotes of US$1.4/W at last week's Intersolar 2009 trade fair, according to industry sources in Taiwan. Average prices have decreased continually from US$1.7-2/W in early April, US$1.7-1.8/W in late April, and US$1.6-1.7/W in mid-May, the sources said.

The downward pricing trend has been the result of stagnant demand in the global photovoltaic (PV) market since the fourth quarter of 2008. Solar cell inventory levels remain high around the world, the sources indicated. If the situation does not improve, spot prices for solar cells are likely to continue falling to US$1/W by the end of 2009, the sources said.

[R-BgO]

wenn das stimmen sollte...:

June 3, 2009, 1:53 pm
China Solar Vendors Slash Module Prices, Analyst Says
Posted by Eric Savitz

Chinese solar vendors are offering modules for prices far below what most investors likely suspect, according to Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson.

In a research note today, Johnson asserts that some of his “most trusted industry contacts” say that companies like Yingli (YGE), Suntech (STP) and Trina Solar (TSL) are offering modules for sale at $1.70-$1.80/watt, or 1.21-1.28 Euros/watt. He notes that at the recent Intersolar conference, the talk was that solar modules were priced in the 1.60-1.70 Euros/watt range.

Johnson contends that U.S. investors may be underestimating the ability of Chinese solar module companies to significantly lower their non-silicon costs - specifically, by cutting wages. He writes that “we are hearing that Chinese solar module factory workers are willing to work for little-to-no-pay” in order to improve their company’s competitiveness and “as a matter of national pride.” According to Johnson, volumes available at the lower price levels is effectively unlimited.

Johnson, who already had been bearish on the sector, notes that there are 1.5 GW of solar module inventory in the channel, and that Spain, which in 2008 accounted for nearly 50% of global module consumption, “has basically gone to zero.” His view: “At the risk of stating the obvious, this does not bode well for U.S./European solar module vendors given the commodity underpinnings which define this space,” he writes. “Assuming these prices stock, we believe solar industry fundamentals are in bigger trouble than we expected this year.”

Johnson specifically advises taking short positions in SunPower (SPWRA), Q-Cells (QCE.DE), First Solar (FSLR) and SolarWorld (SWV.DE).

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.318.476 von R-BgO am 04.06.09 13:05:05

das waere unglaublich ASP's in Q1 lagen bei den meisten China solar um die $2,70/watt...das waere ein dollar drunter...weiss nicht ganz wie das gehen soll...mfg CW

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.318.519 von dicki31785 am 04.06.09 13:09:38

Von welchem Jahr redest Du da?

und, man darf nicht Zell-Kosten mit Modulkosten verwechseln.

Hoffe, ich liege mit meiner Anmerkung richtig.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.325.657 von UWR_Kerl am 05.06.09 08:46:00

bzw. Preisen

[a_bit_fishy]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.325.657 von UWR_Kerl am 05.06.09 08:46:00

Ich denke schon, dass es bei dem artikel eindeutig um modulpreise geht. Was hier glaube ich aber immer wieder verwechselt wird sind großhandelspreise und endverbraucherpreise. Und modul ist nicht gleich modul.

Das die aktuelle preisgestaltung in china eigentlich nicht funktioniert sieht man an den zahlreichen konkursen chinesischer unternehmen. (Und das trotz aktuell niedriger silizium preise.)

Die wahre konkurrenz sehe ich im stromendverbraucherpreis. (grid-parity)

Ein vernünftig denkender solarmelker wird sich wohl kaum ein "No name" chinesen modul aufs dach schrauben.
Bei einer derart überdurchschnittlich langen kalkulatorischen abschreibungsdauer zählen qualität, service, gewährleistung, garantie, ersatzteilverfügbarkeit, name und vertrauen, etc. einfach doppelt.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.325.657 von UWR_Kerl am 05.06.09 08:46:00

Module ASP's von TSL zb. waren $2,70/ watt in Q1....keine zelle kein wafer...das ganze modul...mfg CW

ps weiss nicht wo rauf du hinauswillst...fall du es erlauetern magst...waere ich dankbar...

[R-BgO]

Will grid parity change everything for the Solar industry? asks iSuppli

Posted by Debasish Choudhury on 04 June 2009 at 12:32

Many in the solar power industry and the investment community believe the arrival of grid parity—the point when cost of electricity generated by a rooftop Photovoltaic (PV) cell system is equivalent to that purchased from an electrical utility—will mark a major inflection point for the market that will deliver a huge increase in growth.

However, even when true grid parity arrives, it’s unlikely to generate an abrupt rise in solar system installations due to the high upfront costs and the long-term return of investing in a rooftop photovoltaic system, according to iSuppli Corp. In fact, growth is set to moderate during the years when grid parity arrives for various regions of the world as the industry enters a more mature phase.

Following a dip in growth in 2009, photovoltaic installations measured in terms of megawatts are expected to rise at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 72.4 percent from 2010 to 2013. During the period from 2010 to 2020, when grid parity is expected to arrive in many nations that are leading in solar-energy installations, the CAGR will slow to 20 percent.

Parity apparent
While there are many definitions of grid parity, iSuppli characterizes it as the point when an investment in a rooftop solar system delivers a 100 percent return on investment in five years. Furthermore, debts incurred—i.e. negative cash balance in the investment in the system—must never exceed 25 percent of the total cost of the installation.

“iSuppli doesn’t expect the arrival of grid parity to result in an abrupt increase in user demand for photovoltaic systems,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. “The market is likely to make a smooth transition, with demand progressing through the arrival of grid parity in an evolutionary way. This is because users must still make an investment in advance and the wait for the return over a long period of time. A lot of this has to do with psychology. It takes a high level of commitment to invest in a solar system that is expected to operate during a period of 30 years.”

Because of this, global PV installations are expected to rise in smooth fashion, even when grid parity arrives in certain nations of the world. The major factor determining the growth of PV installations will be the supply/demand balance, which will dictate pricing.

Solar market to recover from Spanish Flu
Global PV installations are expected to decline by 32.3 percent in 2009 to reach 3,546 megawatts, down from 5,235 in 2008. However, the 2009 decline is due to a single event: a sharp decline in expected PV installations in Spain.

Spain accounted for 50 percent of worldwide PV installations in 2008. An artificial demand surge had been created in Spain as the time approached when the country’s feed-in-tariff rate was set to drop and a new cap of 500 Megawatts loomed for projects qualifying for the above-market tariff. This set a well-defined deadline for growth in the Spanish market in 2009.

However, megawatt installations will rebound in 2010 with growth of 42.5 percent, followed by a 73.6 percent rise in 2012 and a 68.6 percent increase in 2013.

The attached figure presents iSuppli’s forecast of worldwide photovoltaic system installations in terms of megawatts.

Waiting for parity
Different countries are expected to attain grid parity at different times, due to varying factors including sun exposure and the cost of utility-provided electricity.

“The country that is probably closest to reaching this standard is Italy,” Wicht said. “Italy has high electricity rates, and low system prices. It also has a high exposure to solar radiation.

But even in this nation, the elapsed time to the cash break-even point is now about 14 years. Furthermore, debt for a system installed now will reach 35 percent of the net system price.”

iSuppli doesn’t expect the nation’s solar industry to achieve grid parity until 2012.

The next closest nation to reaching grid parity is Germany due to the high cost of electricity and the availability of low-cost solar systems in the nation. However, Germany is not set to achieve grid parity until 2018, according to iSuppli’s definition.

California may already have achieved grid parity if consumers are paying the premium of 35 cents per kilowatt hour. However this kind of grid parity addresses only a small fraction of the state’s consumers. Grid parity addressing the majority of private household and reaching electricity prices of 22 cents per kilowatt hour are likely to be achieved in four to five years.

However, these events are not likely to spur a major rise in solar installations.

“The definition of Grid parity is imprecise, making it easy to call it the holy grail for solar,” Wicht added. “As solar system prices will continue drop and public incentives will allow to obtain Return on investment of 5 to 10 percent over 20 years, Solar Penetration will rise like any other market, with early adopters and late adopters. The market is at an early stage in terms of penetration. Penetration of solar systems will progress like any other market.”

To know more, please visit: www.isuppli.com.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.328.707 von R-BgO am 05.06.09 14:05:03

[R-BgO]

Ein neuer Trend...?

...auch Sunpower beginnt mit outgesourcter Fertigung; davor haben schon Evergreen, Carmanah und Day4 (interessanterweise alles Nordamerikaner) sowas gemeldet:

SunPower Announces Multi-Year Manufacturing Agreement With Jabil Circuit, Inc.

--Panel Assembly Agreement Leverages Jabil's North American Footprint to Reduce Supply Chain Costs

SAN JOSE, Calif., June 8, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- SunPower Corp. (Nasdaq: SPWRA; SPWRB), a manufacturer of high-efficiency solar cells, solar panels and solar systems, today announced that it has signed a multi-year solar panel manufacturing agreement with Jabil Circuit, Inc., to build panels for SunPower's North American solar market. Jabil will begin manufacturing panels for SunPower in Mexico in the second half of 2009.

This agreement is the first step in SunPower's long-term strategy to implement regional panel assembly for improved customer service and reduced costs. The company is also continuing to evaluate establishing localized manufacturing facilities in large solar markets in the U.S.

Separately, Jabil will collaborate with SunPower in the company's participation in the Solar America Initiative (SAI), a U.S. Department of Energy effort to accelerate the development of advanced solar energy technologies. SunPower has participated in the initiative since September 2007. SunPower and Jabil intend to evaluate establishing world-class panel and system manufacturing locations in the U.S., which would result in the creation of highly skilled jobs.

"This agreement provides SunPower with the flexibility to site manufacturing near the largest and fastest growing solar markets in North America, improving the efficiency of our supply chain," said Marty Neese, SunPower's chief operating officer. "Jabil's extensive experience in manufacturing and high-quality standards makes them an ideal partner for producing SunPower's solar panels, the most powerful solar technology on the planet."

"We are in the process of ramping production capacity to manufacture solar panels in Europe and North America for customers in those markets," said Brian Althaver, Jabil's vice president for strategic development. "This agreement gives us the opportunity to use our capabilities as a global manufacturer to provide a responsive, reliable and cost effective manufacturing solution in close proximity to solar markets."

[R-BgO]

Auch das hier dürfte neu sein:


Solar cell maker Motech to procure wafers via open bid

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 9 June 2009]

Motech Industries, a leading solar cell maker in Taiwan, plans to procure solar-grade poly-Si wafers through open-bid competition, the first time a local company has resorted to such a procurement model, according to industry sources.

Motech has sent invitations to potential suppliers, but it remains uncertain how many suppliers will join the competition, or what conditions Motech has set for the race, the sources said.

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.349.603 von R-BgO am 09.06.09 09:17:08

...lässt grüssen!

[R-BgO]

June 8, 2009, 6:16 pm
Analysts See Solar Demand Rebound, Lower Silicon Prices
Posted by Tiernan Ray

Better late than never, I thought I’d mention two solar technology industry reports out today. Reports from analysts last weekfollowing an industry conference indicated demand for solar panel modules was picking up, but concerns about pricing of product has remained a concern.

Today, Barclay’s Capital Research analyst Vishal Shah writes that the price of the basic ingredient, polysilicon, could decline to $50 per kilogram from the current $65 to $75 per kilogram by the end of this year as “the next phase of supply ramp” begins in the second half. Specifically, he’s forecasting the industry to produce 90,000 metric tons of poly-si this year, up from a prior estimate of 83,000. He sees supply rising to 138,000 in 2010 and 166,000 in 2011, up from prior estimates of 122,000 and 153,000. This is a negative for MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), a major producer of poly-si, and could cause the company to scale back its own production plans. Nevertheless, he still rates MEMC stock “Overweight” on a recovery in the semiconductor business. Shah is also positive on JA Solar Holdings (JASO), Yingli Green Energy (YGE), SunPower (SPWRA) and First Solar (FSLR).

Meantime, Broadpoint/Amtech analyst John Hardy says panel demand should pick up next year as a result of the “sunset” on Treasury Department provisions for tax rebates on solar panel installations. Specifically, Hardy writes that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by Congress in February allows for a 30% rebate on capital costs for solar installations within 60 days of the completion of a project.

That could pry open some pockets to get projectes started that have been stalled by a lack of financing, he thinks. ”While the US market remains stagnant due to continued lack of liquidity and delays in establishing the process for physically accessing the funds, we believe the Department of Treasury is targeting an updated application process for the June/July timeframe, and that this could provide a catalyst for demand.”

Today, solar stocks were mixed:

* First Solar rose $1.87, or 1%, to $183.97;
* SunPower fell $1.68, or 5%, to $29.89;
* JA Solar rose 2 cents to $5.15;
* Yingli rose 37 cents, or 2.5%, to $15.28;
* and MEMC fell 28 cents, or 1.4%, to $19.51.

[R-BgO]

Bei den Taiwanesen war der Mai schrecklich:

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090610PD202.html

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.352.213 von R-BgO am 09.06.09 13:29:20

While the US market remains stagnant due to continued lack of liquidity and delays in establishing the process for physically accessing the funds, we believe the Department of Treasury is targeting an updated application process for the June/July timeframe, and that this could provide a catalyst for demand.”


Ich denke, dass das wirklich ein sehr wichtiger Punkt ist. Es ist wohl so, dass all die schönen Neuregelungen zum ITC noch immer nicht in die Verwaltungspraxis umgesetzt sind. Das heißt, faktisch gibt es in den USA derzeit keinen ITC! Dass sich das nun endlich ändern soll, berichtet auch die Neue Energie (Juni-Ausgabe). Ich gehe deshalb davon aus, dass die US-Nachfrage ab dem 3. Quartal signifikant anziehen könnte und ab 2010 wirklich stark sein wird.

Wie auch immer: Das Überkapazitätsproblem der Branche bleibt auf absehbare Zeit bestehen und ich warte noch immer auf intelligente Ideen zur Konsolidierung. Am Ende wird die Branche wahrscheinlich radikal von "außen" konsolidiert werden.

[R-BgO]

June 10, 2009, 1:21 pm
Solar: Rally Extends; Rising Demand Vs. Lower Prices
Posted by Eric Savitz

There’s quite a rally going on in the solar stocks, as the Street engages in a spirited debate on the offsetting impact of rising demand and lower prices.

Solar stocks have roughly doubled off their March lows - and at least for now, the bulls on the sector continue to have the upper hand. In a research note this morning, Cowen analyst Robert Stone asserts that the recent run in the stocks has further to go. “Some observers may argue that it is time to take profits after the strong recent gains in many PV stocks,” he writes. “However, we believe there are additional triggers ahead, notable policy and project news in China and the U.S. While some may wish to trade around positions to take advantage of potential volatility in the broader market, we recommend investors stay exposed to the PV sector.” Among his picks: First Solar (FSLR), SunPower (SPWRA), Suntech (STP) and Trina (TSL).

Stone says a recent memo of understanding signed by Suntech to develop a 500 MW project in Qinghai province in China is further evidence of the country’s emerging solar sector. He thinks China could become one of the world’s three largest solar markets. He also says U.S. support from the stimulus bill should kick in by September. Stone does say that capacity in the industry will exceed demand until 2012; he expects the huge drop in polysilicon prices to spur lower module and system costs, and attractive returns for solar projects.

Meanwhile, Battle Road Research analyst Dave Arcaro today backed off a bearish stance on the sector, moving to Hold from Sell ratings on FSLR, SPWRA, TSL, Q-Cells (QCE.F), JA Solar (JASO) and Energy Conversion Devices (ENER). He remains negative on Yingli (YGE), LDK Solar (LDK), ReneSola (SOL) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR). Aracaro notes that the spot price of polysilicon has dropped to the $65-$75/kg range, from $100-$110 in the first quarter - and that the price could hit $50 by year end. The falling cost per watt should spark demand, he contends. Aracaro contends demand in Europe is accelerating, thanks to falling prices and easing credit conditions in Europe.

One reason for the pick up in interest in solar stocks may be a recent flurry of new project announcements. Suntech yesterday announced a deal with New Jersey-based Petra Solar to market utility pole mounted solar systems. Barclays analyst Vishal Shah says Suntech’s Qinghai project could qualify for a number of ground-based solar incentives that could provide “very attractive” economics for the project. Shah today upped his target on STP to $17.50, from $16.

Meanwhile, SunPower is getting a positive response to a deal to outsource some production to Jabil Circuit (JBL). In response to that news, Wedbush Morgan analyst Al Kaschalk today upped his target on the stock to $25, from $21, which is still below yesterday’s closing price at $30.55. He keeps his Hold rating on the shares. Likewise, Pacific Crest analyst Mark Bachman today repeated his Sector Perform rating on the stock, writing in a note that while he has near-term concerns about the stock, “we also need to recognize long-term operational improvements.”

For now, at least, the market isn’t paying that much attention to bearish calls on the stocks. JA Solar shares are higher today despite a downgrade of the stock to Market Perform from Outperform by Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, who wrote today that the stock deserves a breather after a 50% run-up in two weeks and an 85% move since reporting Q1 on May 19. Molchanov notes that the broader solar rally has come amid a powerful rally in oil prices “with alternative energy serving as the proverbial oil on steroids trade,” while news and speculation on China’s solar initiatives have also helped the group. Time for JASO holders to take profits, he contends.

Soleil analyst Paul Leming today cut his rating on First Solar to Hold from Buy, with a price target of $170, below yesterday’s close at $182.88. Leming says sharp appreciation of the Euro against the dollar over the last six weeks will boost results for Q2 and for all of 2009. But he chopped his forecast for 2010 to $8.25 from $10.27 to reflect expectations that module pricing will remain under pressure in the face of continued over-capacity. By contrast, Broadpoint.Amtech analyst John Hardy today repeated his Buy rating on the stock, setting a price target of $250. He thinks the company’s pending June 24 analyst meeting could prove to be a catalyst for the stock; Pacific Crest’s Bachman made the same point this morning.

[R-BgO]

U.S. solar financing set to rebound - experts
Wed Jun 10, 2009 5:26pm EDT


* Experts say financing to return to solar late this year

* Banking crisis had hurt project financing

* Tax equity markets starting to attract banks again

PHILADELPHIA, June 10 (Reuters) - Financial players who abandoned U.S. solar energy projects last year during the throes of the banking crisis are beginning to return, potentially setting up a boom of new deals by the end of the year, several solar investors said on Wednesday.

The 2008 collapse of top solar financier Lehman Brothers and the freeze-up in the global credit markets drove nearly all banks to halt funding for major new solar projects, forcing the makers of systems that turn sunlight into electricity to slash prices for their products and sending their stocks crashing.

Now, with financial markets stabilizing and fresh government incentives for clean energy, many banks are again eyeing the investments under which they fund solar power developments in exchange for renewable energy tax credits.

"Those that had left the market are beginning to come back, and come back in a big way," Matt Cheney, chief executive of Renewable Ventures, told the PV America conference.

That would be welcome news to companies such as SunPower Corp (SPWRA.O), Suntech Power Holdings (STP.N), SolarWorld AG(SWVG.DE) and others who have seen their share prices cut in half from highs reached last year.

Last week, U.S. Bancorp and privately held SolarCity announced they had teamed up to fund solar projects using the tax incentives to eliminate the purchase and installation costs for homes and businesses.

Banks have traditionally used the tax equity markets to fund solar projects by buying the government tax credits from the project owners. Those owners use that money from the banks to cover the costs of development.

But as credit crisis hit the financial markets, banks' appetite for those tax credits disappeared, shrinking the number of financial players from 20 to about four in the solar sector.

"We're beginning to see the thaw in the tax equity markets," Ed Sproll of HSH-Nordbank AG told the conference.

The steep decline in cost of the solar systems -- estimated to be about 30 percent since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2008 -- has also made funding new projects much easier.

Even with the turbulence in the debt markets and higher costs for borrowing, the lower prices for solar have made the sector attractive, according to Nick Allen, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

"The returns are now to where we're above 10 percent in a lot of cases," Allen said.

That could lead to several large project announcements late this year or early next year, especially since those projects must be started by the end of 2010 in order to qualify for U.S. investment tax credits that were put in place in 2008.

[R-BgO]

China Becomes Global Green Leader with Massive Solar Projects
by: Kelvin Schulle June 11, 2009 | about stocks: FSLR / JASO / KWT / LDK / SOL / SOLF / STP / TAN / TSL / YGE
Kelvin Schulle

During the last six months, the Chinese government has planned massive solar projects ahead of the Obama administration in the U.S. Wall street can hardly obtain first hand information because of the communication obstacle between the east and the the west as lauguage is a major cause of the delay. Many westerners rely on the translation from media such as Tanwain's DiGitimes, and JML Pacific Epoch, a research firm located in China that publishes in English.

Back in Jan 2009, the Qinghai province Haixi region rolled out the world's first 1GW solar farm project. Suntech power (STP) has been reportedly selected for the first 400MW, ReneSola (SOL) and JA Solar (JASO) are likely to win 200MW each, to reach 80% of its 1GW target (note: none of the companies have officially released any contracts yet). Many other Chinese solar companies are also competing for the rest of the 200MW - companies such as Solarfun Power Holding (SOLF), Yingli Green (YGE), Trina Solar (TSL).

Moreover, Qinghai is just one of the provinces that the central government fully supports for the nation's ambitions. Before Qinghai's 1GW solar farm, Yunnan province rolled out its first on-grid 166MW solar farm. According to the Guardian's report, both the Gangsu province and Inner Mongolia province are planning for 2GW or bigger solar farms in their regions. The other 10 provinces have also submitted solar energy projects to the central government for approval. China's target for renewable energy is to achieve 15% of total energy consumption for the nation - that will translate to roughly 30-40GW by 2020. But we should not ignore the contribution from other forms of renewable energy such as wind, geothermal, biomass, etc.

It is worth noting that , with huge solar projects on the way in China, there are only two major solar wafer providers, LDK solar (LDK) and ReneSola (SOL). ReneSola is also a vertical integration company, providing PV models.

Now let's take a look at the big solar projects in U.S. The largest one so far is the 800MW in California, to be built by Optisolar. Sunpower is going to provide 250MW PV panels to the project. We also have some small scale solar farms on schedule, such as the 75MW solar project in Charlotte County, Florida. First Solar (FSLR) is also planning a 48MW Nevada solar farm that will start generating electricity this year.

Over all, President Obama's renewable energy plan is left behind, and our competitor China is moving forward with full speed.

[R-BgO]

Wenn das hier stimmt, ist es etwas das ich nicht begreife...

Vorhandene Kapazitäten liegen brach und es wird weiter munter in neue investiert?:


Meyer Burger "buy"
11:06 - Vontobel Research

Zürich, 11 Juni (newratings.de) - Michael Foeth, Analyst von Vontobel Research, bewertet die Aktie von Meyer Burger (ISIN CH0027700852 / WKN A0LEKY) in der aktuellen Ausgabe von "Vontobel Morning Focus" nach wie vor mit dem Rating "buy".

Während die Solarstromindustrie aufgrund einer Kombination von mangelnder Projektfinanzierung und hohen Lagerbeständen noch immer unter einer recht schwachen Nachfrage leide, steige die Anzahl der bekannt gegebenen Neuprojekte in der Pipeline, was nach ihrer Einschätzung andeute, dass sich die Nachfrage bei einer Normalisierung der Kreditmärkte schnell erholen könnte. Sie hätten ihre Einschätzungen für Meyer Burger auf der Grundlage der derzeitigen Produktionsvolumen angepasst und die Bewertung unter Berücksichtigung höherer Sektorkennzahlen aktualisiert.

Es werde erwartet, dass die Produktion den Sommer über zeitweise hochgefahren werde. Ende 2008 habe Meyer Burger von asiatischen Kunden eine Reihe von Absagen erhalten und danach angekündigt, dass bis Mai Kurzarbeit gefahren würde. Dies sei jetzt bis Juni verlängert worden. Die Analysten von Vontobel Research glauben, dass das Unternehmen seit Jahresbeginn mit etwa 50% seiner Kapazität produziert. Während der Auftragsbestand, zu dem einige kleine neue Bestellungen kämen, abgearbeitet werde und man beim Auslieferungsplan beginne klarer zu sehen, sollte die Produktion im Verlauf des Sommers bei etwa 70 bis 80% liegen.

Meyer Burger habe in den letzten zwei bis drei Monaten keine neuen Projektabsagen mitgeteilt, und das Geschäft sei weitgehend stabil geblieben. Die beiden im letzten Jahr erworbenen Betriebe, Hennecke und AMB, würden sich einer guten Nachfrage erfreuen und seien von der Rezession weitgehend nicht betroffen. Die Durchschnittspreise von Meyer Burger seien in etwa stabil, wobei es nur abhängig von den Werkzeugen geringfügige Einschnitte von 2 bis 6% gebe. Die neue Drahtsäge zum Schneiden von Barren, Brick Master, sei vom Markt gut aufgenommen worden.

Angesichts ihrer neuen Produktionsannahmen haben die Analysten von Vontobel Research ihre Prognosen leicht nach unten korrigiert, sie beurteilen die Ertragsaussichten jedoch immer noch deutlich optimistischer als der Marktkonsens. Nach ihren Einschätzungen würden Meyer Burger-Aktien nun mit einer P/E-Ratio von 9,5 für 2010 und einem EV/EBITDA von 4,1 für 2010 gehandelt, welche deutlich über dem jeweiligen Sektordurchschnitt von 19,4 bzw. 10,2 lägen. Ihrer Ansicht nach sei ein Abschlag nicht gerechtfertigt, wenn man die führende Marktposition und die starke Bilanz des Unternehmens berücksichtige.

Dementsprechend bleiben die Analysten von Vontobel Research bei ihrer "buy"-Empfehlung für die Aktie von Meyer Burger mit einem neuen Kursziel von CHF 230 (vorher: CHF 165). (Analyse vom 11.06.2009) (11.06.2009/ac/a/a)

[R-BgO]

Da die Börse ja seit geraumer Zeit eine PV-Party feiert, die ich nicht begreife, bin ich nochmal zurück zu meinen Nachfrageschätzungen, habe sie mit dem Projekt-Thread abgeglichen und einige Werte neu geraten/geschätzt.

Ich stelle zur Diskussion jeweils neu(alt) in MW:

Deutschland.....2.500 (2.500)

USA...............800 (1.000)

Japan.............600 (600)

Italien...........600 (600)

China.............500 (100)

Spanien...........400 (500)

S.Korea...........300 (300)

Frankreich........300 (300)

Indien............200 (100)

Griechenland......100 (100)

Tschechien........100 (50)

Summe...........6.400 (6.350)

dazu kommen noch 10 Länder mit zweistelligen MWs:

Abu Dhabi, Australien, Belgien, Bulgarien, Canada, Israel, Portugal, Saudi-Arabien, Schweiz, Taiwan


und 13 Länder mit einstelligen Schätzwerten, von denen ich aber zumindest mal was über Projekte gelesen habe:

Österreich, Brasilien, Zypern, Dänemark, Jordanien, Marokko, Mexico, Niederlande, Senegal, Südafrika, Schweden, Türkei, UK

In Summe lande ich ca. 6,8 GW nach 7,1 die ich im Januar geschätzt hatte.

allerdings sehe ich hier mehr upside als damals: China, Canada, Israel, Indien könnten alle überraschen; die USa könnte auch deutlich niedriger ausfallen.

Das komische ist, das in einem solchen Szenario Angebot und Nachfrage vielleicht doch nicht so weit auseinanderliegen.


Wenn ich für die Großen Player mal den 2009er Output aus der Hüfte schätzen sollte, dann würde ich sagen:

First Solar.1.100....kum

Q-Cells.......600....1.700

Suntech.......600....2.300

Yingli........500....2.800

Sharp.........500....3.300

Trina.........400....3.700

Gintech.......300....4.000

Motech........300....4.300

JASO..........300....4.600

E-Ton.........300....4.900

Sunpower......300....5.200

Solarworld....300....5.500

Kyocera.......200....5.700

Sanyo.........200....5.900

dann bliebe sogar noch ein gutes GW übrig für die anderen ca. 200 Anbieter auf meiner Liste, darunter
-die ganzen AMAT und Oerlikon-Kunden,
-die Tier-2 Chinesen (SOLF, CSIQ, CSUN, SOL, Jetion,...),
-die Tier-3 Chinesen (unnotiert),
-die klassischen Europäer (REC, Schott, ErSol, Solland, Scheuten, Sovello, Sunways, Arise, ..
-und die c-SI Quereinsteiger (HHI, Itarion, Spectrawatt, Mosel,...)

Das gäbe zwar ein Hauen und Stechen im unteren Bereich; aber wer weiß, vielleicht doch schon bald eine Stabilisierung im Markt?

Unklar bliebe aber in jedem Fall, wo die SI-Anbieter ihren Stoff lassen wollen; der reciht nämlich meiner Schätzung nach für locker 9-10 GW...

Bitte um Rückmeldung, Kritik und Gegenvorschläge...

Wie könnte sich 2009 weiter entwickeln?

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.372.873 von R-BgO am 11.06.09 15:50:46

Hi,

erst mal wieder danke für diesen Beitrag, in dem ne Menge Arbeit steckt!

Ob Deutschland wirklich auf 2,5 GW kommen wird, da habe ich inzwischen Zweifel. Das erste Quartal war ja wohl unterirdisch und das zweite läuft offenbar auch noch verhalten.

Was das Angebot angeht: Schon richtig, dass das gar nicht so weit weg ist, von der wahrscheinlichen Nachfrage. Aber das ist ja nur deshalb so, weil die Unternehmen sich bisher ganz bewusst nicht auf Überproduktion und Preiskämpfe bis aufs Blut einlassen. Denn dass keiner (außer FSLR!) seine Kapazitäten wirklich ausnutzt, das ist Tatsache. Und es ist überraschend und es ist eine instabile Situation.

Die Hausse der Solarwerte an der Börse erklärt sich für mich vor allem anderen damit, dass der US-Markt ab 2010 explodieren wird. Und da könnte was dran sein. Sind bspw. in 2011 4 GW in den USA möglich? Ich würde sagen, ja, absolut! Durchaus auch mehr. Nehmen wir Wind: Da war oder ist(!) der US-Markt "plötzlich" auch 8 GW groß. Das Land ist einfach so riesig, riesig groß - die Dimensionen sind dann eben immer gleich ganz anders, wenn es mal wirklich vorwärts geht. Es hängt natürlich von zahlreichen Faktoren ab - unter anderem sehr stark von genug Kredit - aber alles geht in die Richtung eines extrem starken Zubaus an PV-Leistung in den USA. Ich denke, die Börse spilet dieses Szenario immer stärker.

Hier noch was aktuelles dazu:

PHILADELPHIA, June 10 (Reuters) - Financial players who abandoned U.S. solar energy projects last year during the throes of the banking crisis are beginning to return, potentially setting up a boom of new deals by the end of the year, several solar investors said on Wednesday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN104630422009…

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.375.860 von SLGramann am 11.06.09 20:31:43

Das erste Quartal war ja wohl unterirdisch und das zweite läuft offenbar auch noch verhalten.

Mittlerweile kann man nicht mehr alle Produzenten über einen Kamm scheren. Hier mal eine Meldung von Anfang Mai eines Modulproduzenten in meiner Nachbarschaft:

Meldung vom: 05.05.09

Fertigung läuft 7 Tage/Woche, 24 Stunden

Heckert Solar stellt aufgrund der riesigen Nachfrage auf 4-Schicht-System um.
Heckert Solar hat auf den Auftragsboom Mitte März schnell reagiert und die Fertigung zum 4.5. auf 4-Schicht-Betrieb erweitert. Damit werden nun erstmalig rund um die Uhr an jedem Tag der Woche Hochleistungsmodule am Standort Chemnitz produziert - Made in Germany. Die personellen Voraussetzungen waren bereits zum 1. April geschaffen worden, an dem über 20 neue Mitarbeiter eingestellt und über vier Wochen intensiv angelernt wurden. "Nur eine konsequente Ausbildung hinsichtlich Fertigungsqualität garantiert den Markterfolg unseres Unternehmens", so Dieter Wittig, Produktionsleiter bei Heckert Solar. "Jetzt können wir die Vorteile unserer hochautomatisierten Fertigungslinien ernten und die ständig wachsende Nachfrage befriedigen."
Nach dem im Heimatmarkt Deutschland langen und schneereichen Winter wurde das auf kleine bis mittlere Aufdach-Anlagen spezialisierte Unternehmen von einer bis dato aufgestauten Auftragslawine förmlich überrollt. Um alle Rahmenvertragskunden dennoch bestmöglich und partnerschaftlich bedienen zu können, kann das Unternehmen unter Zugrundelegung eines konservativen Fertigungsszenarios derzeit daher nur Lieferzeiten von bis zu 10 Wochen anbieten. "Wir können uns hier derzeit nur entschuldigen: Dieser Boom war nach den ersten Monaten von uns so schlicht nicht absehbar", meint Till Uhle, Marketing- und Vertriebsleiter bei Heckert. "Unsere Vertriebsteams erbringen aber derzeit viele Überstunden, um mit unseren Kunden gemeinsam en detail Lösungen zu erarbeiten."

***


Meldung vom: 03.06.09

Viele Kunden und neue Verträge auf der InterSolar

Heckert Solar freut sich in München über großen Zuspruch und hervorragende Perspektiven.
Auf der diesjährigen InterSolar, der internationalen Leitmesse für Photovoltaik, präsentierte sich Heckert Solar dem breiten Publikum in Halle A1 mit einem neuen Messestand auf 100 qm. Die vom 27. bis 29. Mai in München laufende Messe bescherte dem Unternehmen nicht nur einen Besucherrekord, sondern auch bereits Verträge für das nächste Jahr. Die Signale stehen auf Wachstum: In 2010 will sich Heckert Solar erneut deutlich besser als der Markt entwickeln und viele seiner Rahmenvertragspartner haben vorausschauend bereits eine Erhöhung der Abnahmemengen in Aussicht gestellt.
Trotz einer Verdopplung der Produktionsleistung in 2009 konnte Heckert Solar die große Nachfrage nach seinen polykristallinen Hochleistungsmodulen Made in Germany bis dato kaum befriedigen. Die zu Anfang Mai erfolgte Umstellung auf 4-Schicht-Betrieb auf eine Fertigung rund um die Uhr an allen sieben Tagen der Woche soll nun helfen, das große Auftragsvolumen schneller abzuwickeln.


http://www.heckert-solar.com/23.0.html


Durch den 24h-Betrieb haben sie jetzt 120MWp.

[R-BgO]

Das hier wurde im Solarworld-Thread gepostet:


Alternative Energy Power Cost Parity Near Say Industry Experts

67 WALL STREET, New York - June 5, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its Alternative Energy Report report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 67 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling [phone] or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

In the following brief excerpt from the 67 page report, industry experts discuss the breakeven pricing for energy production from alternative sources. The experts also detail a complete outlook for the sector and for investors.

Mehdi Hosseini is an Analyst in the technology, media and telecom research group of FBR Capital Markets, covering the semiconductor manufacturing food chain.

Pavel Molchanov, Research Analyst-Equity Research at Raymond James & Associates Inc., joined the firm in June 2003 and has worked as part of the exploration and production research team since that time. He also initiated coverage on the alternative energy sector in fall 2006.

TWST: Mehdi, what does all of this rhetoric mean?

Mr. Hosseini: Let me take 20 or 30 seconds and explain my views on why policies are critical. I view the solar space as a structured finance. Therefore, the people with the money, the people who are closest to the money, are the ultimate decision makers. Most of the companies you see traded publicly are on the supply side. They have been getting a lot of exposure and front page publicity over the past two years because we had a shortage. As that shortage goes away, the realities of the industry are surfacing. Suppliers, in my view, are purely commodity manufacturers, and more and more these companies realize that the person who has the money and the person who is closest to the money are the ultimate decision makers. Now the problem has been that the cost has been high and you needed the subsidy to make the returns attractive for financiers. Global warming and alternative energy were gaining momentum, especially in Germany. That spread to the rest of Europe, and what happened in Spain is that returns got really attractive because subsidies were so big. Governmental policies and attractive financial returns created substantial demand out of Europe over the past two years, and then a combination of Spain hitting a brick wall and the financial crisis created a reality check for suppliers. Moving forward to the US and back to your question, obviously policies matter because policies are going to dictate how much subsidies are going to be given, and therefore what kind of returns the financiers are going to capture. We have been waiting for new detail out of the stimulus package. In the meantime, project financing is still tough. Again, Spain hit a brick wall, and all of this has put a dramatic pressure on prices. Prices are coming down and I think they're going to come down more. They are coming down even with limited color on the stimulus package, and the returns are beginning to look attractive. By next year, I think we're going to finally have low interest loans offered by the government through the new stimulus package. We have a policy that determined investment tax credit, which is going to bring the equity investors, and prices are going to continue to go down. All of these factors combined are going to create a very desirable environment for a pickup in solar system and solar module.

Mr. Molchanov: Let me add one point to that last comment that was made. I certainly agree with the thrust of the statement. Last summer, at the peak of the solar boom of the last few years, the all-in installed cost of a commercial PV system was roughly $7 a watt. With the meltdown of module pricing in the past nine months, that all-in cost is now closer to $5.50 a watt. So it's down more than 20%, and almost all of that is specifically the module price coming down rather than the installation cost. The magic number we have to look at is $4. At that cost level, solar would be essentially at grid parity, not everywhere of course, but at least in the electric power markets with higher than average prices such as Hawaii, California, Italy, Japan and those types of markets. It's going to take quite a while, as you might imagine, for solar to get to grid parity in, say, Kansas or Alabama, places with very cheap power, or France, where it's very cheap because it's overwhelmingly nuclear. In the higher price states, we're 50% of the way toward grid parity, and it's been barely nine months from that $7 number of last summer. So how long is it going to take for us to cover the second 50% of that road? Hopefully it's going to take longer than nine months, quite simply because the industry cannot sustain this pace of price declines for much longer, but even if it's two years or so, that's a much more gradual decline in pricing. By 2011, solar power should be at a point where it has never been in history, which is being cost competitive with traditional power generation without taking any subsidies into account. If you take subsidies into account, as Mehdi alluded to, we are already at grid parity in many markets, and that's why the economics are starting to look very attractive, even today.

[R-BgO]

von Thin-film-today:


Coping with a fall in polysilicon prices

Spot prices on the solar industry’s key raw material, polysilicon, have halved since January, giving a leg up to solar panels that rely heavily on the material, according to a report filed by Reuters.

Thin-film solar panels, made with little or no polysilicon, are starting to lose their competitive edge over China-made silicon-based modules, which are more efficient in transforming the sun's rays into electricity.

“First Solar is still the undisputed leader, but finally, someone’s competing with them,” reportedly said Macquarie analyst Kelly Dougherty.

Intensifying price competition is making scale all-important, hurting the chances of start-ups, she said.

Late last month, an analyst pointed out that First Solar’s stock will be under pressure due to the decline in polysilicon prices amid weak demand in Europe.

In a note to clients, FBR Capital Markets analyst Mehdi Hosseini said the firm’s recent research shows that with polysilicon prices down to $65 per kilogram, some customers in Germany are already considering switching from First Solar's products to silicon-based photovoltaic.

“We believe we have learned of one top customer of FSLR that has already switched to a Si-based module vendor for one of its projects currently under construction,” wrote Hosseini. He added given the increased downside risk, the stock will face significant challenges over the next several months.

[R-BgO]

“Thin film manufacturers have to aim mid-term at 0.7€/Wp or lower”

By Thin Film Today staff writer

One question which thin film technology companies need to factor in the long run as they chart out their cost reduction roadmap is - could polycrystalline silicon cost reduce to the point that its competitive cost advantage is eroded?

A company like First Solar says its approach is to compare a hypothetical best case on polycrystalline silicon to its own cost reduction roadmap.

During First Solar’s first quarter earnings call, Mike Ahearn, chairman and CEO, had explained: “...we look at where polycrystalline silicon cost could be at various silicon feedstock price points ranging from 150 down to $25 a kilogram. What it will demonstrate is that we’ve got a cost advantage, let’s just take from $75 to $25 a kilogram the cost advantage of somewhere from $0.73 to $0.35 a watt or 55% to 35% on a relative basis.”

“...adjusting for a balance of system penalty of $0.15 a watt, which is what you get assuming 12% conversion efficiency on First Solar modules versus 14% on polycrystalline silicon, and it demonstrates a range that while higher is still fairly significant...from a mitigation point of view, we’ve got to be focused on executing our cost reduction roadmap,” said Ahearn, according to Seeking Alpha.

Kevin Reddig, Team leader, IPA Fraunhofer believes that in the current market situation only First Solar seems to have the power to grow fast enough.

Redding, a speaker at the recently conducted Thin Film Solar Summit Europe in Berlin, spoke about the share of thin-film sector going forward and much more. Excerpts from an interview:

The shortage of polysilicon, which has limited the growth of crystalline technologies in the last few years, has offered the PV thin film industry a great opportunity to grow. How do you think the overall share of thin film will increase going forward?

In the current market situation only First Solar seems to have the power to grow fast enough. Otherwise the envisaged cost reduction necessary because of the comparable lower efficiency could not be realised by all manufacturers. The increase in market share might therefore slow down.

Some Poly-Si manufacturers are able to produce for 20€/kg. If the Poly-Si market is entering into a more balanced phase, the price per kg on the market will go down equally. This means, you could buy Poly-Si in the next two years for maybe 30 €/kg. With other improvements such as factory sizes and cost reduction c-SI manufacturers will be able to produce modules for 1€/Wp. In order to be competitive, thin film manufacturers have to aim mid-term at 0.7€/Wp or lower, depending on the technology. If you have a comparable efficient technology such as CdTe from First solar with efficiencies plus 10% and production costs below 1US$ per Wp you can supply to large open field solar plants. Within the a-Si/µc-Si community you even have to produce with lower costs. This can only be achieved with larger factories and company sizes.

First Solar, Inc. claims to have reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules to 98 cents per watt. According to First Solar, “further significant cost reductions are possible based on the yet untapped potential of its technology and manufacturing process.” In fact, the long term financial models it previously discussed suggest manufacturing cost targets of $0.65 to $0.70 a watt by 2012. How do you assess room for such improvement going forward from the industry’s perspective?

Those improvements are necessary and doable. Just by saving costs for material this target is reachable. In the long run, the production costs have to shrink even further. The technology part in this is raising efficiency. The two major fields to act on in terms of manufacturing are material costs and investment costs. If a manufacturer streamlines his supply chain, he can cut material costs by half or more. Parallel equipment supplier have to decrease investment costs. Until 2012 at least by half.

It is being said that all three thin film technologies – a-Si based, CIGS based, and CdTe can reach large volume manufacturing in the 10% - 12% range. What’s your take on this?

Only if costs can be considerably reduced. From my point of view, there is only one path:

a. You have to have trust in the technology. If it is CdTe or CI(G)S you have to be sure that you get enough deposition material, be able to convince customers in environmental issues and you know the technology well. In a-Si/µc-Si you have to go for at least a tandem or a triple cell and be able to cut the costs for adding extra cells.

b. Then you are strong enough to organise 2 billion to built real large fabs, preferable at one site, if the target market is large enough. Otherwise smaller production units with a well structured supply chain are better suited to serve different markets.

c. Then you have strong partners for supplying glass (preferably on-site), deposition material, other material and equipment.

d. Then you will be able to produce for 0,6 / Wp.

With the right market structures in place, thin film companies say they are capable of significantly expanding their annual production capacity and during this scale up, manufacturing costs can decline by two-thirds. How do you assess the situation?

The expansion plans of many thin film manufacturers are put on hold. Without economies of scale, the envisaged cost reduction is not possible. Most equipment suppliers are not capable of expanding their equipment volume fast enough, simply because they do not have enough orders in the book. It’s like the hen and egg problem. Investors are also reluctant, because they see technology risks. Established manufacturers are now responsible for the market. Newcomers will have a difficult time.

How do you assess the usage of flexible, lightweight substrate which is easier to install and provides clear advantages for commercial rooftops, higher value-added BIPV and other markets vis-a-vis rigid substrates, which are unsuitable for many applications?

It will be an important market, but BIPV based on flexible substrate will not have the biggest market share compared to rigid substrates. Flexible substrates need a rigid structure. I see flexible TF long-term as a niche market. Open field solar power plants are the future for thin film. Or thin film has no big future at all.

CIGS as a semiconductor material, at the laboratory level, has a higher demonstrated cell conversion efficiency than amorphous silicon (a-Si) and cadmium telluride (CdTe). Considering that CIGS offers other compelling advantages over both a-Si and CdTe, how do you see the usage of CIGS as a choice of substrate material by thin-film PV manufacturers?

If prices can be brought down and yield can be brought up, it is very interesting. In a prolonged perspective of 20 years, shortages of Indium might increase production costs again.

[SLGramann]

June 15, 2009

San Francisco, CA, USA: Solarbuzz Details Mid-Range Global PV Market Forecast of 7.4 GW in 2010

...

After extremely challenging industry conditions in 2009, characterized by excess manufacturing capacity and accentuated by a 2 GW demand reduction in Spain after a major policy adjustment, the PV industry will return to a growth path in 2010, resulting in a global market of 7.4 GW in that year, based on Solarbuzz's mid-range scenario*. This is up from the 5.95 GW market in 2008.

Underpinning that growth will be a more than doubling of the US market size to well over 1 GW in 2010, together with a mid-range German market size of 3.2 GW.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsNACO954.htm


Was Deutschland angeht, da hängt vieles auch von der BT-Wahl ab. Das vergessen einige...

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.392.959 von SLGramann am 15.06.09 12:51:35

Naja weiss ich nicht SL...es gibt ja nicht wirklich eine partei die das EEG abschaffen moechte...selbst die FDP hat sich ja jetzt zum EEG bekannt...weiss also nicht wer das gesetzt kippen sollte...

das man aber eventuell die verguetung checkt wenn die preise fuer module weiter purzeln ist nach meinem empfinden relativ normal....mfg CW

[R-BgO]

1,09 Yuan = 11,5 Euro-cent


June 15, 2009, 09:46 (CEST)

Beijing Plans Subsidized Pricing for Solar Power

Beijing is expected to unveil subsidized prices for solar power production as soon as the second half of the year, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday, citing an industry official.

The National Energy Commission of the National Development and Reform Commission is considering following the lead of developed nations in giving subsidized rates for solar energy, the report cited Zhao Yuwen, head of the China Renewable Energy Society's photovoltaic committee, as saying.

The subsidy will be paid for by a renewable energy fund collected from electricity end-users in the form of small surcharge based on usage volume, Zhao said.

The same fund was tapped to subsidize other clean energy projects including wind power.

Beijing plans a preferential tariff of 1.09 yuan per kilowatt-hour for solar projects, according to local media reports early this month.

[king_of_fools]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.394.944 von R-BgO am 15.06.09 16:39:00

Wie soll sich das Ganze rechnen?

Soll dann die Anlage komplett weniger als 2€/W kosten? Auch dann müsste die Sonneneinstrahlung > 1600kwh/kwp sein. Um irgenwo bei +/-0 heraus zu kommen. (Mal grob geschätzt)

Grüße kof

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.389 von king_of_fools am 15.06.09 17:24:15

Angeblich hat Yingli bei einer Ausschreibung bereits für 7,1c geboten.

Als ich im dortigen Thread hinterfragt habe, wie damit Geld verdient werden soll, wurde mir über den Mund gefahren und gezischt: "Referenzprojekt!"


Ich kann mir aber schon vorstellen, daß sie es auf Sicht für 2 Euro hinkriegen.

[dicki31785]

Leider sind noch keine details vorhanden...aber selbst die briten wollen jetzt solar...amis,briten, und selbst die chinesen...it's a crazy worldaber der FIT von den chinesen ist erstaunlich klein...mfg CW

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/15/solar-photovo…

MPs back tariff boost for photovoltaic power


British market could boom with introduction of guaranteed, above-market price for electricity fed into grid

Britain could become a booming market for solar power from next year when the UK introduces a support system used successfully by dozens of other countries.

Last week 240 MPs signed a parliamentary motion supporting the mass rollout of solar photovoltaic (PV) power. The support was the biggest of any such motion introduced in this parliament.

Colin Challen MP, who tabled the motion, said: "There is an enormous opportunity to drive forward this technology through the forthcoming feed-in tariffs."

Feed-in tariffs (FITs) work by paying a guaranteed, above-market price for any electricity fed into the grid for a period of 20-25 years. They have been designed to offer returns close to 10%, thereby reducing payback times for any household investing in a PV system to 10 years or less.

Similar tariffs have boosted solar power in the 50-odd countries that have introduced them in the past decade, in turn promoting production of PV panels and pushing down prices to the extent that PV will not need subsidies for much longer.

"FITs have been very effective at improving take-up," Kenichiro Wakisaka, senior manager at the Japanese electronics group and PV maker Sanyo, said at the recent Intersolar trade fair in Munich. "Japan has reintroduced one and the market there will double at least. The same will happen in the UK and we will increase our allocation to the UK market."

"We are very excited about this," said Clive Collison, head of Action South Facing, a solar system installer based in Hertfordshire. "We are now getting all sorts of inquiries from companies, local authorites and individuals. But nothing is guaranteed. We don't know the level it will be set at yet and the big energy companies are still lobbying against it."

Jerermy Leggett, chairman of the British solar group Solar Century, says the British market has tremendous potential but is also concerned that some officials at the Department for Energy and Climate Change may stall the introduction of the FIT at the behest of groups arguing that nuclear power is the answer.

"If so, UK plc will essentially have to sit and watch as other countries create jobs, tax income and energy security in one of the fastest-growing industries within the emerging green industrial revolution."

The British market, along with those of China, Japan and the United States, which have also recently announced plans for feed-in tariffs and other forms of support, offers a bright future for the solar industry. After several years of meteoric growth, it has been laid low this year by the credit crunch and a change to Spain's feed-in tariff that has reduced demand in one of the world's fastest-growing markets.

The global financial crisis has hit the industry hard because its costs are high and it has had trouble accessing bank financing. This has forced companies to rein in production and cut their prices in a bid to maintain their growth.

At the same time the supply of silicon, from which PV panels are made, has finally caught up with, and overtaken, demand, giving another nudge down to prices – to the benefit of consumers.

"Prices to end-users are down about 16% this year," says Georg Salvamoser, head of the German solar industry association, BSW. "This is hard for firms' margins but it does move us an important step towards making solar energy cheaper."

He predicts that the number of projects installed in Germany – Europe's biggest market – will grow this year, although more slowly than in recent years. "Last year we installed 1.5 gigawatts peak [GWp] of PV in Germany and this year I think there will be slightly more," he said.

That total is equivalent to the power produced from about two conventional coal or gas power stations. PV in Germany accounts for about 1% of total electricity production but the country hopes to boost that to 12% by 2020 and 25% by 2030.

Stefan Dietrich, spokesman for Q-Cells – the world's largest producer of silicon PV cells – said prices had tumbled 20% this year. "Things have changed a lot. It's a buyer's market right now. But in the short term that is good because it will help the industry reach grid parity."

"Grid parity" – the point at which PV electricity is as cheap as that coming from conventional power stations – is the PV industry's holy grail. It depends on how sunny a country is and the cost of its electricity.

Dietrich thinks Italy will be the first country in Europe to hit grid parity – possibly as soon as next year. Other candidates are Hawaii and California, where grid electricity is expensive. Many other countries, including Britain, will achieve parity within three to five years, say experts.

Once that happens, demand is potentially infinite. Solar PV also has the advantage that, once installed, the buyer is protected from rising oil and gas prices for several decades.

Industry analysts iSuppli forecast in a recent report that worldwide PV installation would tumble by a third this year to about 3.5GWp. But it expects growth to explode again from 2011, reaching 25GWp annually by 2013 and giving the industry an annual turnover of nearly $100bn.

But Jerry Stokes, vice-president for strategy at Chinese group Suntech – the world's biggest maker of PV panels – says life has got tougher.

"The market is very challenging now and there is a flight to quality going on," he says. "Project developers and investors are very cautious about what they spend their money on.

"It's not just about cost per watt but the number of kilowatt-hours you will get over the lifetime of a project, 20 years and more. And we are confident that we are in front in the race to grid parity – we don't want to live off government subsidies any more."

[Istanbul]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.654 von R-BgO am 15.06.09 17:50:50

Imho sind sie schon ein Stück drunter:

- silicon costs für Neukontrakte und große Mengen < $1 /Wp
- ca. $0.60 /Wp Zell- und Modulproduktion
- Skaleneffekte bei Großanlagen (Wechselrichter, Tracker, ...)
- Arbeiter zur Errichtung kosten soweiso nix

In China haben wir bei PV die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erreicht.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.400.018 von Istanbul am 16.06.09 10:38:23

Niemals. In China kostet Elektrizität für gewerbliche und industrielle Endkunden vielleicht 2 bis 4 US-Cent / kWh. Da kommt PV nie hin. Sicher, das wird nicht so bleiben, aber für heute und die nächsten Jahre kann von Wettbewerbsfähigkeit keine Rede sein imho.

[king_of_fools]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.395.654 von R-BgO am 15.06.09 17:50:50

Kann ich schon verstehen, dass es als Referenzprojekt angeboten wird.
Dies ändert aber nicht an der Tatsache, dass daran nichts zu verdienen ist bzw. sie dabei Verluste machen.

Grüße kof

[SmartCap]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.400.723 von SLGramann am 16.06.09 12:04:55

Wenn PV so nah an der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ist, warum müssen dann eigentlich sogar in Ländern mit sehr hoher Sonneneinstrahlung nach meiner Erinnerung über 20-25 Jahre ca. 40 bis 55 cent Einspeise-Subventionen vergütet werden ?

sc

[Istanbul]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.400.723 von SLGramann am 16.06.09 12:04:55

Diese Preise sind allerdings subventioniert. OK, wahrscheinlich isses dennoch noch nicht ganz so weit.

[king_of_fools]

http://www.investor-verlag.de/boersenwissen/emerging-markets…

Kann dies stimmen?

Chinesische Solarmodule preislich unschlagbar

weiter geht es im Profit Radar zum Thema China und Solar.

Konkretes Beispiel, das auf der jetzt zu Ende gegangenen Intersolar genannt wurde, der weltweit größten Solarmesse in München genannt wurde: Auf der Fachmesse wurden Verkaufspreise zwischen 1,60 bis 1,70 EURje Watt genannt.

Die großen chinesischen Firmen, zu denen auch unser Taipan-Wert gehört, bieten ihre Solarmodule aber für Preise zwischen 1,21 bis 1,28 EUR je Watt an - das sind rund 25% weniger als die europäische Konkurrenz.

Vor diesem Hintergrund wundert es nicht, dass mehr und mehr Solar-Module aus chinesischer Produktion auf europäische Dächer und Anlagen geschraubt werden, wie das Beispiel des neuen Mega-Solarparks in Tschechien zeigt, auf das ich im Profit Radar von gestern hingewiesen habe.

Ein Analyst warnte die europäische und amerikanischen Investoren davor, die Fähigkeit der Chinesen zur Kostenreduzierung vor allem bei den nicht-silikon-abhängigen Kosten zu unterschätzen. Gemeint sind damit natürlich in erster Linie die Lohnkosten.


Die erste Zahl mit 1,6 -1,7€/W kann ich noch glauben. Aber auch nur als untere Grenze für chinesiche Module. Die zweite Zahl: 1,21 bis 1,28€/W kann ich mir nicht vorstellen (würde ungefähr Parität zu Haushaltsstrom in Dtl. bedeuten!!!)

Selbst Unternehmen, die führend bei den Kosten sind (Yingli,Trina,...) würden bei diesen Preisen Verlust machen.
Abgesehen davon würde sie sich selbst damit ins Bein schiessen! Falls ich hier daneben liegen sollte, klärt mich bitte auf!

Hat jemand von Euch aktuelle Zahlen? Mein letzter Stand sind
ca. 2€/w für chinesische und ca. 2,4€/W für deutsche Module.
Hab aber bei pvexchange auch schon Preise von 1,8€/W gesehen.

Grüße kof

[SLGramann]

Shout it from the rooftops: CPUC approves Southern California Edison’s 500-MW commercial PV plan

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/shout_it_from_the_rooftops_cp…


In dem Artikel ist schön dargestellt, dass man bei diesen Projekten ab 2010 Fahrt aufnehmen will. Es wird dann interessant zu beobachten sein, ob es c-Si-Unternehmen gelingen wird, hier einen Anteil zu erobern. Die ersten Projekte sind - natürlch - an FSLR gegangen. Wenn es in 2010 c-Si nicht mal im Dachsegment gelingen sollte, sich gegen FSLR durchzusetzen, wäre das verheerend.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan green energy industry set to boom after new law enacted
Categories：Economy & Technology
Level：5

Taipei, June 14 (CNA) Taiwan's green energy industy is poised to boom after a statute aimed at promoting renewable energy development cleared the legislative floor last week, a Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) official said Saturday.

Yeh Hui-ching, director of the MOEA Bureau of Energy, said passage of the Renewable Energy Development Act has formally ushered into Taiwan the era of alternative energy development and related applications.

"It means that in the future, the development and application of renewable, pollution-free sources of energy that produce low amounts of carbon-dioxide emissions will be given priority in terms of low-carbon energy development in the country, " Yeh said during a ceremony marking the establishment of the Taipei-based Chinese Alternative Energy Association.

The enactment of the statute represents the beginning of a linkage between energy and environmental conservation, he said.

The act provides a legal framework that will encourage investment in renewable energy production and offer incentives to local consumers to install renewable energy equipment.

Under the law, the government will provide incentives such as equipment purchase subsidies and low-interest loans to increase renewable energy generating capacity in Taiwan to between 6.5 million kilowatts and 10 million kilowatts.

Yeh said it is hoped that these and other incentives will boost the development of local solar, wind, biomass and other green sectors.

In line with the spirit of the new statute, he said, the Executive Yuan has also instructed that 10 percent of the funding for public construction projects under the government's public works stimulus package will be set aside for the development of renewable energy or energy-saving efforts.

"These plans will in turn form the foundation of green business in the country," he added.

In addition to permitting state-run Taiwan Power Co. to buy electricity generated by private renewable energy investors, the statute also allows the government to offer other incentives to speed up the development of renewable energy technologies.

The statute stipulates that the development of solar photovoltalic energy, solar thermal energy, wind power generation, biomass energy and nuclear power generation will be given priority in terms of energy development.

Of these sectors, the solar energy sector will hopefully become the country's next NT$1 trillion industrial sector and result in Taiwan becoming a leading manufacturer of solar photovoltalic energy equipment in the world, said National Taiwan University President Lee Si-chen, who is the convener of a national energy development project authorized by the National Science Council.

"The government's target is quite clear now that the installation capacity of renewable energy will account for 15 percent of the entire power installation capacity in the country by 2025, with its power generation capacity projected to increase to 8 percent of the total power supply in Taiwan," Lee said.

Meanwhile, Tsai Chin-yao, chairman of the Solar Photovoltalic Energy Development Committee under the non-profit Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) Taiwan, forecast that the enactment of the statute will spark investment of NT$30 billion in Taiwan's renewable energy sector within one year.

The investment could create up to 10,000 jobs and generate NT$100 billion in revenues within one to two years, he forecast.

[ehrenwort]

Analyst predicts First Solar to become largest solar module manufacturer in ‘09 http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/analyst_predicts_first_solar_…

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.424.654 von king_of_fools am 19.06.09 09:30:18

Diese Zahlen aus deinem Bericht, wären aktuell umgerechnet ca. $2.24 - $2.37/watt bzw. $1.69 - $1.79/watt. Wäre halt mal spannend zu wissen, wer diese grossen chinesischen Firmen sein sollen bzw. was mit "unser Taipan-Wert" gemeint ist!? Sind wohl eher irgendwelche "no name" Hersteller, die Dünnschicht Module zu diesen Preisen verticken...zumindest was die Preisspanne von $1.69 - $1.79/watt betrifft!?

Und eine andere Frage ist...sind die europäischen Hersteller wirklich schon bei 1,60 bis 1,70 EUR/watt? Ich glaube kaum! Denke eher, dass man solche Börsenbriefchen in die Tonne schmeissen kann!

Hier mal eine kleine ASP Historie von Solarfun und Yingli...

ASP-Solarfun:

Q1 2008: $4.07/watt
Q2 2008: $4.17/watt
Q3 2008: $4.04/watt
Q4 2008: $3.37/watt
Q1 2009: $2.78/watt
Q2 2009: expected decline of 10% - 15% / ca. $2.36 - $2.50/watt

ASP-Yingli Green:

Q1 2008: $4.11/watt
Q2 2008: $4.20/watt
Q3 2008: $4.04/watt
Q4 2008: $3.19/watt
Q1 2009: $2.70/watt **
Q2 2009: expected decline of 10% - 15% / ca. $2.30 - $2.43/watt **

** Die letzten zwei Punkte (Q1, Q2) stammen nicht von Yingli direkt, sondern beruhen auf Annahmen von mir. Weiss jetzt gerade nicht, ob sich Yingli im letzten Conference Call konkret zum Thema ASP geäussert hatte...darum erbitte ich um Korrektur, falls ich hier falsch liegen sollte!

Die anderen ASP-Zahlen, ohne Sternchen, stammen direkt von Yingli bzw. Solarfun!

Trina Solar liegt glaube ich auch so im Bereich von $2.70/watt...betreffend "expected decline" für Q2, wurden 12% - 15% angegeben!

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.434.160 von Soulrider82 am 20.06.09 22:04:25

Das mit den chinesischen "no name" Herstellern nehme ich mal zurück...diese Aussage kann man wohl auch in die Tonne schmeissen!

Im Endeffekt denke ich, dass sich die zweite Preisspanne auf Dünnschicht Hersteller wie First Solar bezieht. Das sollte ja etwa hinkommen...das sich diese aktuell in diesem Bereich aufhalten!? Aber Yingli, Trina, Suntech oder Solarfun sind es bestimmt nicht!

[R-BgO]

June 19, 2009, 10:07 am
Solar: UBS Upbeat On Solar; Upgrades SPWRA; Cuts LDK
Posted by Eric Savitz

The sun is coming out.

UBS analysts Robin Cheng and Stephen Chin this morning assert in a lengthy report that solar energy demand is gradually recovering, and that momentum should accelerate in the second half of this year, driven by strong government incentives in China and the U.S., improved project financing in the U.S and lower module prices. He raised his forecast for 2010 solar demand by 15% to 10.5 GW from 9.1 GW, although he lowered his estimate on module prices for 2010 by 12% to $1.95 per watt.

The UBS analysts contend that China’s stimulus program should transform the country from a pure producer of solar goods to a big potential market. Taking over coverage of the China solar companies, Cheng has Buy ratings on Yingli Green Energy (YGE) and Suntech Power (STP), but today cut his rating on LDK Solar (LDK) to Neutral from Buy, citing “potential risk from its ambitious polysilicon operations.” His new price target on LDK is $14, down from $22.

His colleague Chin today boosted his rating on SunPower (SPWRA) to Buy from Neutral, upping his target to $38, from $26. He says SPWRA is the best positioned U.S. solar company. “Our checks find that the U.S. Treasury is likely to start accepting applications by the end of June” for stimulus program subsidies, “with cash grants likely paid within 65 days of the application date,” he writes. Chin reports that channel checks support his view that the U.S. residential solar segment will likely grow 2x in 2010 to 340 MW given lower module prices, an uncapped 30% investment tax credit, and generous state level subsidies, enabling residential system buyers to lower payback periods to under five years from 9 years previously.

Chin ups his 2009 EPS estimate for SPWRA to 42 cents from 32 cents; for 2010 he goes to $2.25, from $1.98.

[R-BgO]

June 22, 2009, 12:48 pm
Solar Stocks: Cowen Cuts Ests On Falling Module ASPs
Posted by Eric Savitz

Cowen analyst Robert Stone this morning slashed his estimates on companies making silicon-based solar modules, noting that pricing has “taken another leg down since May.”

At the Intersolar conference in May, he notes in a research report, expectations were for a 15% sequential drop in pricing in Q2, but with Q3 showing a low-single digit change. But he now thinks that modules for tier one Chinese players could drop to $2/watt by year end, a slide of 15%-20% in the second half.

He also notes that spot polysilicon prices are down to $60-$75/kg from the high 70s in May, with wafers “trending well below $1/watt.”

Stone is actually fairly upbeat on the companies; falling prices make solar systems attractive to more buyers.

That said, his estimates have come down sharply:

* China Sunergy (CSUN): 2009 EPS to -63 cents from -42 cents. 2010 to 16 cents, from 28 cents.
* Evergreen Solar (ESLR): 2009 EPS to -63 cents, from -54 cents. 2010 to -22 cents, from -9 cents.
* SunPower (SPWRA): 2009 EPS to 97 cents, from $1.13. 2010 EPS to $1.82, from $2.04.
* Suntech (STP): 2009 EPS to 25 cents, from 27 cents. 2010 to 60 cents, from 65 cents.
* Trina Solar (TSL): 2009 EPS to 86 cents, from $1.30. 2010 to $2.27, from $2.85.

[R-BgO]

Source: Consortium Wins Dunhuang Bid

Posted on Jun 19, 2009 | 19:06


Zhao Dongliang, the First Deputy Mayor of Nanchang, Jiangxi province, said Thursday that three companies have jointly won the bid to construct a 10MW photovoltaic station in Dunhuang, Gansu province at a price of RMB 1.09/kWh, reports Oriental Morning Post. According to Zhao, the three companies are:

-- Best Solar, a Jiangsu thin film and crystal solar module provider that has received investment from Peng Xiaofeng, chairman and CEO of Jiangxi-based LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK);
-- China Guangdong Nuclear (CGN) Energy Development Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of CGN Power Group;
-- and Enfinity NV, a solar installation specialist established in Belgium.

The news was confirmed by Hu Runqing, a researcher at Renewable Energy Development Center at China's National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC) Energy Research Institute, Oriental Morning Post reported. The companies have not received formal documents from the NDRC, said Zhao.

Previous reports said that LDK has set up a research center in Nanchang, while Best Solar and partner GCL Engineering plan to build nine photovoltaic rooftop-based projects in the city.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.445.917 von R-BgO am 22.06.09 23:39:14

Das sind 11,5c/kWh....

[R-BgO]

Daniel Englander June 22, 2009 4 Comments
Whither Thin Film?

Something is happening in Europe today that could put a damper on thin film’s meteoric rise: banks and project lenders are refusing to finance projects using thin-film modules, says GTM Research's Senior Solar Analyst Daniel Englander.

Thin-film PV is the game changer, right? By nearly all relevant metrics – cost, performance, and operational behavior – it does just as well as, and sometimes better than, traditional crystalline silicon PV. It's cheaper and simpler to produce, attains higher output in both low light and high temperature conditions, and – for some technologies – boasts conversion efficiencies to rival some multicrystalline modules. Over the past few years, thin-film PV has shown it can play in almost all markets – from residential rooftops in Marin County to utility-scale projects in Bavaria to subway stations in Brooklyn. GTM Research even forecasted that thin film would comprise roughly 50 percent of the incremental demand market in 2012.

But something is happening in Europe today that could put a damper on thin film's meteoric rise: banks and project lenders are refusing to finance projects using thin-film modules. At a conference I recently attended and spoke at in London, I heard from a number of Spanish, Italian, French and German bankers who are routinely passing on thin-film projects. "Why go to thin film when we have plenty of polysilicon applications and we're making a killing?" one asked, rhetorically. "Our [technical due diligence] engineers have very exacting standards," said another. "The banking market is shut for new technologies," said a third – openly taunting the handful of thin-film execs in the room.

The credit crisis is driving bankers' hesitancy to finance thin-film projects. Capital today is both scarce and expensive, forcing bankers to pass on projects they might have financed only nine months ago. Today only low risk, "gold plated" projects are receiving financing. These are projects with quality sponsors, experienced developers and EPC firms that use "bankable" technology. In other words, the projects that receive capital are those with the lowest risk profile. Technology components comprise roughly 85 percent of a project's cost, and the module comprises roughly 50 percent of that cost center, which means that the module represents the largest cost risk component of a PV project.

One of the biggest issues in technology selection is durability, and the biggest aspect of durability is performance degradation. As Spire CEO Roger Little so ably instructed me in front of 200 people at a conference a few months back, thin-film modules have a tendency to degrade more and at a faster rate than c-Si modules. Whether this is true or not, it is certainly playing into the risk calculations of the European banks. At a higher level, operational experience with thin film is much lower than with c-Si, meaning there are more long-term questions that have yet to be answered by thin film in the field. By contrast, some c-Si projects built in the mid-1980s are still operating within their expected performance range.

Combining questions of risk with scarce, expensive capital means that – in the words of one Italian project developer – "banks are the technology choosers and they are continually exerting their desire to control the technology." In Europe this is resulting in banks passing on thin-film projects in favor of relatively less-risky c-Si projects.

That's not to say that all is lost for thin film. To the contrary, in the American PV market, thin-film projects are popping up like mushrooms after a spring rain. The U.S. downstream PV market is much more price sensitive than the European market where project revenues are set by feed-in tariffs in excess of $0.40/kWh. By contrast, commercial power purchase agreements in the U.S. might sell electricity for half that price, though they still need to reach internal rates of return found in Europe. Today those are in the range of 11 percent to 15 percent.

Developers are shaving capital costs to hit this mark and are routinely turning to thin-film modules from companies like First Solar to achieve upfront cost goals. That utilities and state and local governments are the U.S. market's two dominant counterparties today only improves the risk profile of commercial projects. The same is true for the dominant developers and EPCs in the U.S. market, many of whom have decades of operational experience in power generation, construction, and operations and maintenance.

There is another a possible explanation for European reticence. A rumor has made the rounds in the last few months that European banks are only financing European modules. This situation is most pronounced in Germany where many c-Si module manufacturers are struggling to support high cost structures in today's low price environment. Germany's powerhouse semi-state-owned banks, like LBBW and KfW-Ibex, may be giving preferential treatment to domestic modules in a bid of support. Or perhaps they're just suckers for quality German engineering. Either way, this means thin-film projects will continue to have a rough go of it in Europe for many months to come.

[R-BgO]

Weiß nicht, wie es Euch so geht, aber für mich bewegt sich der Markt im Moment in so einer Art Twilight-Zone.

Die akute Panik scheint vorbei zu sein.

Umsätze scheinen anzuziehen, allerdings auf moderatem Volumen-Niveau und zu GANZ anderen Preisen als 2008. Das heißt, die Profitabilitäten der meisten Player gehen in die Grütze. Ausnahme könnten einige Chinesen sein, bei denen der riesige SI-Anteil einen Puffer gegenüber den Absatzpreisrückgängen darstellt. Aber selbst dort heißt es inzwischen, daß SI "nur" noch 50% der Gesamtherstellkosten ausmacht.

Für Kostenvorteile wird es also immer mehr auf Wirkungsgradsteigerungen aller Art (auch Yielderhöhung ist eine Wirkungsgradsteigerung des Prozesses) ankommen. Zu dem Thema ist mir zuletzt die Q-Cells HV-Präsentation positiv aufgefallen, Pluto und die NSP-Supercell passen auch dazu.

Der andere dicke Bereich ist BoS/System über den man an der Börse aber leider nicht viel erfährt.

Auf der Nachfrageseite sieht es weiter mau aus, allerdings frage ich mich immer mehr, ob ich nicht China krass unterschätze. Deswegen habe ich einen reinen China-Thread aufgemacht, um Daten dazu zu sammeln: Thread: PV-Markt: China.

Ansonsten fällt noch auf, daß die Quereinsteiger weiter zunehmen, alleine in den letzten Tagen gab es: TSMC, LG, AU Optronics. Inwieweit das auf deren fundiertem Research beruht, oder vielleicht doch mehr als Flucht aus den angestammten Bereichen zu bewerten ist? Wer weiß?

Auch das Thema Lohnfertigung nimmt zu: Day4, ESLR, SPWR fallen mir sofort ein; in abgeschwächter Form fallen auch BP (JASO), Q-Cells (SOLF) darunter.

Was ich nicht mehr hören kann, ist das Holy-Grail-Gerede von der Grid-Parity; ohne wirklich detaillierte Darlegung der Rechenwege und Annahmen ist das wertloses -aber immer noch weitverbreitetes- Gesabbel. Andererseits könnte es really long-term wirklich darauf rauslaufen, daß PV/CSP der absolute Mainstream wird; dazu habe ich eine sehr interessante Präsentation auf der Solarplaza-Webseite gesehen: http://www.solarplaza.com/presentation/the-economies-of-sola…

Es kann sein, daß rein mengenmäßig auf Dauer gar nicht anderes geht.

Die interessanten Fragen dazu sind:
-wie lang ist "long-term"? und
-wie werden sich die Unternehmen entwickeln?
-welche werden/bleiben stark und wie profitabel werden sie?

Das Thema Kapitaleefizienz (zuletzt häufig gut von SLGramann illustriert) wird dafür sehr bedeutend sein.

Börsenmäßig habe ich einige der extrem gut gelaufenen Position abgebaut und gucke jetzt mehr von der Seitenlinie.
Auf intensiver Suche bin ich nach downstream-playern (insbesondere auch Betreiber), über die man Einblick in die Märkte bekommen könnte.

Habe inzwischen kleine Guck-Positionen in Aerowatt, EDF EN (F), TerniEnergia, Ergycapital (I), Renewagy (DK), Solarparc (D), Iberdrola (E).

Beobachte Voltalia, Strategeco, Kerself.

Wer kennt noch weitere?


Und zum Schluß als Abrundung noch der Verweis auf eine peak-oil Wette: Thread: eine Wette auf Peak-Oil. Wenn da irgendwas dran ist und die "Welt nicht untergeht", dann MUSS Öl in den nächsten Jahre SEHR viel teurer werden.

Wer also an die ganzen grid-parity Rechnungen glaubt, der dürfte auch steigende Ölpreise erwarten. Wir werden sehen....

[R-BgO]

24.06.2009 05:00
UPDATE 1-Showa Shell, Saudi Aramco plan solar power project

TOKYO, June 24 (Reuters) - Japanese oil refiner Showa Shell Sekiyu KK said on Wednesday it will start a solar power project in Saudi Arabia with Saudi Aramco to build small-scale facilities to supply electricity to local communities.

Showa Shell, Japan's fifth-biggest oil company, is ramping up investment in solar cells as it tries to become a major player in the alternative energy.

It hopes to generate new revenue streams besides gasoline and other oil products that are subject to market volatility.

Showa Shell said it and state oil company Saudi Aramco will build a pilot plant next year to conduct studies on the project, in which it plans to build facilities with generating capacity of 1-2 megawatts in Saudi Arabia serving communities without access to power grids.

Once the project gets on track, the two plan to establish a joint venture around 2012 and will target similar operations in emerging countries in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and elsewhere, the Nikkei business daily said.

Showa Shell favours solar cells that use copper and indium instead of the more expensive silicon most commonly used in solar panels, and hopes to gain a 10 percent market share by 2014.

As the race heats up among rival solar cell makers such as Q-Cells and Sharp Corp, Showa Shell aims to stay competitive by offering comprehensive products and services to solar power generation businesses. (Reporting by Taiga Uranaka and Mayumi Negishi; Editing by Michael Watson)

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.449.269 von R-BgO am 23.06.09 14:22:03

Dazu vielleicht ein paar Gedankensplitter von mir:

2009 wird m.E. für die Wafer- und vor allem für die Si-Leute noch extrem haarig werden. Die anderen Teile der Prozesskette haben das schlimmste wohl zunächst hinter sich.

2010 bis 2012 rechne ich mit Wachstum, vielleicht sogar mit sehr erheblichem Wachstum, und anziehenden Margen. Insbesondere USA könnten aus meiner Sicht deutlich positiv überraschen. Damit meine ich eine Jahresinstallation von bis zu 4 GW in 2011 - um mal eine Zahl in den Raum zu werfen.

Obschon die Margen zeitweise anziehen dürften, werden die Kapitalrenditen schwach und die cash-flows negativ bleiben. Dies wird die Masse der PV-Unternehmen sukzessive auszehren.

Nach diesem Zeitraum - wenn der echte Massenmarkt da sein wird - wird sich die Branche endgültig professionalisieren. Das bedeutet vor allem erbarmungslose Konsolidierung. Ich vermute, dass die angestammten Elektronikmultis das Geschäft übernehmen werden - entweder durch Akquisition von PV-Playern und/oder durch deren Verdrängung.

Es wird um Skaleneffekte und Vertriebsstärke gehen.

Insofern, zu Deinen Fragen, wären meine subjektiven Antworten die folgenden:

- "long-term" ist 2013 und folgend

- Die Unternehmen werden sich operativ überwiegend schwach entwickeln, trotz teilweise beachtlicher Umsatzzuwächse - die Börse wird wahrscheinlich trotzdem zeitweise auf Hype spielen

- stark werden 2013 und später nur noch wenige große Elektronikmultis (max. 4 bis 5) sein. Ich rechne mit nachhaltigen Nettomargen von nicht mehr als 5% und schwachen Kapitalrenditen.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.459.779 von SLGramann am 24.06.09 17:37:52

Ich rechne mit nachhaltigen Nettomargen von nicht mehr als 5%


Um da mal ein Szenario zu denken:

Modulpreis in 2013 bei 1 Dollar / W
Produktionsmenge des Unternehmens XYZ bei 5 GW
Umsatz demgemäß 5 Mrd. Dollar
Nettoergebnis 250 Mio. Dollar
zugestandenes KGV für einen Commodity-Producer: 10
Marktkapitalisierung: 2,5 Mrd. Dollar
heutige Marktkapitalisierung von bspw. Suntech: 2,8 Mrd. Dollar

sieht nach überragenden Renditen aus...

-------------------

BoS: Ganz wichtiges Thema! Hier braucht die Branche eine sehr deutliche Professionalisierung. Kann ja wohl nicht angehen, dass nur die Technik-Neben- und Montagekosten für PV bei 3.000 Dollar / kW (und mehr!) liegen sollen. Dafür baue ich locker ein komplettes Kohlekraftwerk. Die spinnen doch einfach, die "Solarteure" und Händler. Frage ist nur, ob die Durchorganisierung dieses Bereichs von den PV-Unternehmen selbst betrieben werden wird oder ob sich Spezialisten etablieren werden. Ersteres hat begonnen, letzteres bleibt aber möglich.

[R-BgO]

interessante Bewertungsmethodik:

June 24, 2009, 9:58 am
MEMC: Poly Oversupply Inevitable, J.P. Morgan Warns
Posted by Eric Savitz

J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Blansett turned bearish on MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) this morning, cutting his rating on the stock to Underweight from Overweight, and setting a price target of $12, well below yesterday’s close at $17.86.

The downgrades, he writes in a research note, reflects “faster than expected ASP declines in all of the company’s product lines.” He says overall supply of polysilicon, which is used to make silicon wafers used in both the chip and solar industries, “will far exceed” demand for the rest of this year and into 2010, driving down spot market poly pricing as well as semi and solar wafer pricing.

Blansett previously had been expected the spot price to reach $60/kg by year end, but he notes that the market has already touched that level. He now says poly could drop to $35/kg by the end of 2009, “a price point lower than the manufacturing cost of many new poly makers” and relative cost parity for the large incumbent players.

The analyst writes that an over-supply is “inevitable” given the sheer volume that is expected to come on line this year. “Unfortunately, actual solar PV demand today is a lot lower than last year’s expectations which initially drove the aggressive capacity expansion,” he writes. “This is resulting in massive over-supply of polysilicon which could last for years if current announced capacity expansion plans are not scaled back.”

Blansett thinks MEMC may need to revised its solar wafer contracts (again) given the continued fall in spot poly pricing. He says a spot price below $50/kg would make the company’s current supply contracts “unpaltable” to solar wafer customers and could put them at a competitive disadvantage given that poly is usually more than 50% of the cost of a solar wafer.

For 2009, he cuts his EPS estimate to 19 cents, from 24 cents. For 2010, he goes to $1.06, from $1.15.

Meanwhile, Citigroup’s Timothy Arcuri points out in a research note that GCL Silicon, the leading Chinese poly manufacturer, is being acquried by its parent, Hong Kong-based GCL Poly Energy, in a deal worth about $3.4 billion. Given the deal was struck at a valuation of $160/kg of capacity, he says that this “highlights the value that in-the-ground polysilicon assets continue to command even in this tough demand environment.” Doing some back-of-the-envelope math, he concludes that WFR’s solar business is worth 3x the replacement value of its assets, adds back the value of the semiconductor business and cash, and comes up with a valuation of about $20 a share. But he maintains his Hold rating and $15 target.

WFR today is down 61 cents, or 3.4%, to $17.25.

[R-BgO]

The myth of infinite demand

by Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting

June 24, 2009 - If you build it they will come. All industries, particularly during periods of strong growth, are vulnerable to believing in their own invulnerability. This is not really hubris; generally, along with the technical skills required, developing a technology or product requires believing that demand for it exists, and that it is cutting-edge enough in form factor, design, function, cost, etc. to nullify the competition. Examples: Sony Betamax vs. Video Home System (VHS), and practically all Internet-based products during the dot-com boom (with obvious and vivid exceptions). Infinite demand does not exist for any good, not even toothpaste.

During the solar industry's most recent boom (2004-2008) the goal of infinite demand seemed attainable. Not only attainable, it seemed to many new entrants almost a foregone conclusion. That boom period is notable for the significant volumes of product sold into incentivized markets, in particular Germany and Spain. The term "grid parity" was knocked around often during these high-growth years, along with the promise that grid parity would bring with it the ability to sell everything you manufactured. New entrants envisioned a world with no barriers and just one small hurdle: getting to grid parity in a timely manner.

The photovoltaic industry does not exist in a vacuum -- that is, it competes with conventional energy technologies (coal and natural gas), nuclear, and other renewables such as wind, not to mention energy efficiency technologies (primarily building materials such as windows). Energy efficiency and conservation are economical ways to control energy costs. Given the competitive landscape which includes less-expensive competitors all vying for a larger piece of the energy market, the answer to unlimited demand for solar is not as simple as achieving grid parity.

Grid parity is a complex concept. It differs by global region, country, area of the country, and US state among other factors such as time of usage (peak usage for example), whether the competitive electricity rate is wholesale or retail, customer type (some commercial customers have negotiated rates, some utilities in some countries discount rates to senior citizens and the poor, and some utilities in some countries deliver electricity at below the cost of production). At solar conferences, grid parity is often presented as the primary goal for the photovoltaic industry. Unfortunately this pronouncement ignores nuance along with educating observers (that is, potential customers) to believe in the industry's version of Santa Claus. With apologies to Santa: to be clear, grid parity is real, however, its power to render demand for solar indestructible is up to debate. Moreover, the goal of grid parity is most often attached to module prices or, lower module manufacturing costs. It is the system price or cost that matters, and often this is overlooked in the discussion.

Perhaps I should backtrack a bit to avoid seeming unusually harsh. Lower-priced electricity from photovoltaic technologies is a worthy goal and should not be ignored, but is it only one goal of many. Technological advancement in the solar industry is ongoing, and manufacturing costs continue to decline. Distributed solar energy offers a significant answer to energy security concerns, environmental concerns, and energy independence for consumers. In rural areas, solar is often the only answer for poor populations to improve their standard of living. Solar can and will continue gaining share in the global energy mix, and not just because of grid parity.


PV industry growth, 1974 to 2008.



The 2004-2008 boom in demand for solar products was not the industry's first or only period of strong demand. The figure above offers a history of growth in the solar industry broken into ten year periods: 1974-1984, 1984-1994, 1994-2004, and 2004-2008. The smaller volumes noted in the earlier years do not trivialize the efforts in these earlier, mostly unsubsidized years.

Compound annual growth rates offer an often sweeping generalization of an industry's growth. The table below provides yearly growth rates from 1974-2008. Note that there are years of significant growth, followed (sometimes immediately) by years of flat growth or shrinkage. The solar industry is a >30-year old start-up, and it has some growing up to do. From 1974 to 2008 a cumulative 15.8GW of product was sold into the market with 82% of the cumulative total sold during the latest boom (2004-2008).

Yearly PV industry growth percentages, 1974 to 2008.


All industries and companies need a story, a mythology, to propel them forward through competition, difficult economic times, manufacturing and development setbacks, and all the other issues that confront and confound them. The trick is not to believe (too much) in the story. For the photovoltaic industry, accelerated growth brought with it a host of optimistic entrants and observers, all believing that strong growth was unstoppable. Even now, the myth of infinite demand lives on with many believing that this means growth of >40% a year for the foreseeable future.

The photovoltaic industry needs stable demand, grid parity with conventional sources of energy as an equalizer, along with new business models that allow consumers to choose between buying electricity or buying a system -- in other words, stable demand and the ability to compete on a level playing field with other energy choices.

[R-BgO]

MODUL-preis EUR 1,42....:

MENLO PARK, Calif., June 26 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- Solar EnerTech Corp. (OTC Bulletin Board: SOEN - News; the "Company") today announced it has entered into a 10MW contract to deliver its solar modules to Solarzentrum Allgau, one of the leading solar system integrators in Germany.

The total shipment value to Solarzentrum Allgau under the contract is approximately US$20 million. Shipments, aimed for solar power installations in Germany, are scheduled to begin immediately and will be delivered throughout the current calendar year.

Solarzentrum Allgau was founded in 1985 in Altdorf, Germany. The company has benefitted from Germany's introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act in March 2000 and has grown its operations through its specialization of sale, assembly and installation of photovoltaic systems. The company is also the founder of an information and advisory center about solar energy in the county of Allg?u. Its President, Willi Bihler is considered a visionary in the field for his innovations in solar power installation (Photon magazine, June 2008 issue).

Mr. Leo Young, CEO of Solar EnerTech, commented, "This is an exciting new project for Solar EnerTech which can accelerate our financial performance for this calendar year. It shows that our strategy of enhancing our operating facility and improving our product efficiency is paying off. The quality of our solar modules are well known to Solarzentrum Allgau as we have served as a supplier to their rooftop projects in the past. Our high-quality, efficient and reliable products continue to garner increased attention among many well- known PV system integrators, which has improved our competitive advantage in winning new contracts."

Willi Bihler, Proprietor of Solarzentrum Allgau commented, "Solar EnerTech's solar products and support services meet the criteria for high quality and performance that we demand from our suppliers. When we encounter some technical issues during our installations, Solar EnerTech's team is always available to assist us with the appropriate solutions. We look forward to further developing our relationship with Solar EnerTech and believe that through their support, we have a compelling opportunity to gain a larger share of the German market going forward."

[R-BgO]

und das hier kommt gerade eben als Newsletter von einem Broker:

(no name-players)
a-Si: $1,40/W => unter 1 Euro
poly-220W $1,98/W => ca. 1,40 Euro
mono-250W $ 2,10/W => ca. 1,50 Euro

alles FoB China

[ehrenwort]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.475.970 von R-BgO am 26.06.09 17:18:49

...alles Spotmarktpreise. Am Flohmarkt gibt's CDs auch schon für 0,10 EUR

[R-BgO]

U.S. Renewable Energy: A Self-Inflicted Crisis in the Making
Karl W. Miller a senior energy executive and institutional investor today issued the following statement through his advisors, regarding the state of the U.S. renewable energy and the cap-and-trade bill, called the American Clean Energy and Security Act recently passed by the Congress.


What crisis you might ask could be brewing in the renewable and green energy sector? After all, it is seemingly the hottest investment sector in the capital markets, green is en vogue, and anything with the word "renewable" attached to it is politically palatable these days. Washington is throwing money out the door faster than the renewable market can deploy it.

Recent Washington packages include:

The $780 billion stimulus package offers incentives, with $94.1 billion worth of programs targeting renewable energy over 10 years. They include a 30% manufacturing tax credit for companies building renewable energy production facilities in the U.S., $8 billion in loan guarantees for renewable energy projects, $4.5 billion in grants for smart-grid electric transmission systems and $2 billion for carbon-capture and -storage technology, among others. AND

A cap-and-trade bill, which mandates that electric utilities to meet 20 percent of their electricity demand through renewable energy sources and energy efficiency by 2020. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. cap-and-trade program will cost $22 billion annually, or about $175 per household, by 2020, including:

Invests $190 billion in new clean energy technologies and energy efficiency, including energy efficiency and renewable energy ($90 billion in new investments by 2025), carbon capture and sequestration ($60 billion), electric and other advanced technology vehicles ($20 billion), and basic scientific research and development ($20 billion). Mandates new energy-saving standards for buildings, appliances, and industry. Reduces carbon emissions from major U.S. sources by 17 percent by 2020 and over 80 percent by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. Complementary measures in the legislation, such as investments in preventing tropical deforestation, will achieve significant additional reductions in carbon emissions.

Yet the simple fact is that for renewables to survive long term, they must be able to compete with fossil fuels, primarily natural gas and coal economically without government assistance. Estimates of the potential contribution to US energy supply of renewables vary from 10 per cent to 20 per cent in 20 years. These targets remain just that, targets on paper.

It seems like almost every utility and power producer in America is jumping on the renewable energy bandwagon. So what could be wrong with that? Well, one thought is that the current valuations across the entire renewable and green energy sector are not justified by realistic or realizable forecasted cash flows or current enterprise Values measured by hard assets which generate actual electricity or create some other form of tangible value.

This should remind one of the internet boom, in which hundreds of billions of dollars changed hands on the back of a paper napkin essentially, and was the domain for high risk venture capital, distressed investor capital and hot money, which ran the sector from 0 to 100 almost overnight, only to abandon the technology sector as quickly as they entered in what became one of the largest boom and bust cycles the U.S. has ever seen.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.491.091 von R-BgO am 30.06.09 10:16:48

Ich weiss nicht ob das schonmal angesprochen wurde...denke mal schon...aber moechte da trotzdem nochmal nachhaken....Ich finde wenn man nur den preis von natural gas, oel usw. betrachtet ist dies unfair gegenueber renewable energies....die political costs die mit den kauefen dieser fossil fuels assoziiert werden muessen auch gezaehlt werden...mag zwar ein bisschen polemisch klingen aber anstatt des Iraq kriegs haette man auch sehr, sehr viel renewebales finazieren koennen...dann gibt es auch noch einen Putin (Medvedev) der machen darf was er will...usw...wenn mal all diese kosten betrachtet ist wohl renewable energy eine sehr gute alternaitive....und vielleicht jetzt schon der preiswerte weg...

ich moechte jetzt auch garnicht damit anfangen welch andere kosten entstehen koennten, klimakatastrophe (hier scheiden sich wohl die geister)...nuklaer muell usw...aber ich finde die "nebenkosten verschwinden" irgendwie immer wenn man ueber den vergleich traditional energies vs. renewables diskutiert...besonders im Amiland...naja nur meine meinung...mfg CW

[xyinvestor]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.491.239 von dicki31785 am 30.06.09 10:35:44

@dicki

Ich glaube was du meinst, sind die "negativen Externalitäten". Damit der Markt richtig funktionieren kann, d.h. Mengen- und Preisbildung, müssen die negativen Externalitäten (wie zB. politische Kosten, Umweltkosten) berücksichtigt werden. Ein Weg wäre das Cap & Trade-System, wo die CO-2 Belastung in der Preisbildung inkludiert wäre. Damit würden die Kosten für konventionelle Energie stark steigen und erneuerbare Energie würde wirtschaftlich sinnvoll werden, ohne Subventionen. Im Prinzip sind Subventionen eh nichts anderes als ein Einbeziehen der negativen Externalitäten, nur weniger effektiv als das Cap & Trade.

Natürlich könnte man auch überlegen, einen Aufschlag auf den Preis für konventionelle Energie wegen politischer Risikiken berechnen. Jedoch übernimmt dies eh schon der Markt, man denke nur an den Anstieg des Ölpreises wegen politischer Risiken in Iran, Irak bzw. Naher Osten letztes Jahr.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.491.239 von dicki31785 am 30.06.09 10:35:44

Du hast vollkommen recht; leider bin ich nicht sehr optimistisch, was unsere Fähigkeit als Spezies angeht, solche Sachen zu internalisieren.

Deswegen halte ich es allemal für sicherer, wenn die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auch "ohne" entsteht...

[R-BgO]

Monday June 29, 2009
California’s Solar Market—What Recession?
Incentives boost state’s PV installations
by Henning Wicht, PhD


Despite a slowdown in Photovoltaic (PV) installations globally in 2009, California is showing surprising strength, according to iSuppli Corp.

Data from the California Solar Initiative (CSI), which manages the incentive programs for most current PV project activity, indicates the state installed 68 Megawatts (MW) of PV systems in the first quarter alone. This represents a 260 percent increase from the same period in 2008 and 100 percent sequential growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. This represents the state’s highest growth rate since CSI started tracking the information.

This data doesn’t include large utility-scale projects from investor-owned PG&E, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, which are just beginning to be awarded.

Revisionist History
This swift increase in the number of installations was mainly due to revisions passed last October by the U.S. Congress that allowed for a 30 percent Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for projects completed after Jan. 1, 2009. The ITC carried no limit on the project’s price.

This created a bit of an artificial inflation of the time that projects were finished. Those due to be completed at the end of 2008 were stretched into 2009 in order to qualify for the ITC. Because of this, iSuppli forecasts second-quarter installations will cool down to the 45MW to 55MW range.

Battle for the Sun
As the Californian PV market heats up, solar cell manufacturers are facing a circumstance where consolidation is becoming a real issue.

The Top-4 players are getting larger while others are finding themselves on the short end of the stick. SunPower has expanded its lead in California to 24 percent market share in the first quarter of 2009, up from 21 percent in 2008. SunPower’s cell business has strong brand name recognition and being the No.-1 supplier in the state is causing business to trickle its way as well.

Meanwhile, Sharp continued to hold the No.-2 position in the state with 16 percent market share in the first quarter, up from 12 percent in 2008. But it was SolarWorld that accomplished the highest increase in share, with a contract win from Chevron and the San Jose Unified School District equaling about 2.4MW of installations in the first quarter. SolarWorld jumped to about 12 percent of market in the first quarter of 2009 up from just about 2 percent of the market in 2008.

The biggest losers in the state were Evergreen, Kyocera, Sanyo and other smaller brands that have been unable to compete with the expansion of the larger companies.

[R-BgO]

July 6, 2009, 11:42 am
Solar: Should Utility Customers Subsidize Solar Homes?
Posted by Eric Savitz

Here’s a tricky question: should the average electric utility customer pay higher rates so that people who install solar systems can sell power back to the grid?

That question is at the heart of a story today in the L.A. Times about whether to expand a program under which California utilities buy back power from customers with solar panels. Current state law allows utilities to cap solar power purchases at 2.5% of their generating capacity; a provision now being debated in Sacramento would quadruple the cap to 10%. The piece notes that Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG) could hit the 2.5% cap by the end of the year, while Southern California Edison (EIX) and San Diego Gas & Electric (SRE) are moving more slowly.

All three utilities oppose the higher cap. The Times notes that while the power comapnies support solar power, they want more information on whether it is fair to increase financial incentives for solar-panel ownership at the expense of the rest of their customers. The piece points out that the so-called “net metering” program which allows people to sell power to the grid is in addition to a 20% state subsidy and a 30% federal income tax credit.

The piece noted that a staff report by the state Senate’s Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee asserted that the utilities are over-paying for power produced by solar customers. Under the legislation, the solar companies pay a full retail rate, “well above the value of the generated power.”

[R-BgO]

July 6, 2009, 10:39 am
Solar Stocks: Barclays Warns Q2 Results Could Disappoint
Posted by Eric Savitz

After a 70% rally off the March low, it might be time to get more cautious on the solar stocks.

At least, that is the advice this morning from Barclays Capital analyst Vishal Shah. He thinks the recent rally makes the stocks less attractive headed into Q2 earnings season, and advises taking a “selective approach.” In connection with the broader call, he cut price targets on Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), First Solar (FSLR), Suntech (STP) and Yingli (YGE).

The bottom line, Shah writes, is that he sees downside risk to shipments, margins and operating expense assumptions, which could drive valuations lower. He cites the following risk factors for the group:

* Germany concentration risk is increasing, with 50%-75% of shipments to Germany.
* Q3 is likely the peak for industry shipment as the German market is likely to be seasonally weak in Q4 and Q1, while new China and U.S. subsidy programs not likely to offset German market declines.
* Street consensus estimates modeling stable margins through second half and 2010 on lower poly prices; but he says rate of poly price declines are decelerating. He sees ASPs falling faster than cost reductions, resulting margin pressure starting in Q1 2010.
* Street 2010 estimates on average modeling 40% revenue growth on 110% EPS growth with relatively flat margins. He thinks Street estimates on costs are too low.
* Receivables risk is increasing, with more potential for customer insolvency.
* Recent rally fueled largely by multiple expansion
* Checks find some installers selling branded modules below purchase price to manage working capital. “Excess pricing pressure” has driven spot prices of FSLR module ASPS to the contract level.
* Inventory of low-cost modules remains high.

Here are a few details on his individual stock calls:

* Energy Conversion Devices: Target to $13, from $17. 2009 EPS estimate to 57 cents, from 58 cents. 2010 estimate to 12 cents, from 75 cents. “Although pipeline appears to be strong, continued large project pushouts and inability of customers to secure adequate financing is likely to impact shipments over the next few quarters,” he writes. Rating remains Equal Weight.
* First Solar: Target to $175, from $190. No estimate changes. He writes that channel inventory remains a problem due to the challenging financing environment and weak demand from German wholesale segment, but that issues on competitive pricing appears to be already reflected in the stock price. Rating stays Equal Weight.
* Suntech: Target to $16, from $17.50. Rating remains Equal weight. “Shipments are currently tracking down sequentially” for the fourth quarter, he writes, with the risk of steeper than expected ASP declines increasing.
* Yingli: Target to $16.50, from $18. Keeps Overweight rating. “Checks suggest module players are offering floating price contracts with 180-day price protection to gain share,” he writes. “Given the sharp decline in module prices since Q1, we believe risks of receivables write-down has increased significantly.”

[R-BgO]

Vol. 1 | Issue 3 | July 2009
Does Silicon Availability
Threaten a-Si Growth?

By Jessica Lillian
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With their lower-cost manufacturing methods and freedom from silicon shortages, thin-film solar cell technologies have occupied a growing slice of market share, and a great deal of buzz continues to surround amorphous silicon (a-Si), in particular.
Linde

But considering that the popularity of thin film was so tightly linked to the limited availability of the polysilicon and silane required for the manufacture of crystalline wafer cells, what is in store for a-Si now that supply shortages no longer constrain the silicon wafer market?

"Because there is a plentiful supply of polysilicon and silane in the supply chain now, it will greatly slow down what people were anticipating would be fast growth for amorphous silicon," says Lita Shon-Roy, senior managing partner at market research firm Techcet Group LLC.

Both the solar market's overall slowdown and polysilicon providers' expanded capacities contributed to the current polysilicon oversupply, which Shon-Roy expects will last for the next few years.

Typical contract prices for silicon have plummeted from approximately $180 per kg to $110 per kg, with spot pricing even lower. Although existing contracts have prevented many wafer manufacturers from reaping the benefits of the price drops, contract renegotiations are becoming increasingly popular, she adds. Other manufacturers are opting to buy silicon on the open market for an astounding $50 per kg.

As a result of this enormous shift, market share for a-Si, which is currently in the single digits, is now generally expected to remain well below 20% for the next five years.

In addition, low conversion efficiency, which was previously often viewed as the most potent growth-limiting factor for a-Si and other thin-film technologies, might now rank as the less important concern.

However, Shon-Roy notes that although a-Si manufacturers certainly still face challenges in increasing efficiency, many companies have made notable strides recently.

"Conversion efficiencies today are somewhere between six percent and eight percent in actuality, but manufacturers should be able to reach upwards of 12 percent to 15 percent in the next five years," she says.

Market-penetration advantages will likely be realized once several a-Si cell manufacturers cross that 12% to 15% threshold. "But depending on how you do the math, even at 10 percent efficiency, the technology can still work less expensively than silicon wafer-based technology," she adds.

Nonetheless, Shon-Roy says a-Si boasts the most cost-reduction potential of the major thin-film technologies. As was the case in the semiconductor industry, this distinguishing quality is likely to prove even more important as the solar manufacturing industry grows, and will help propel a-Si's expansion.

Cadmium telluride solar cells, in contrast, currently hold about 5% of current market share and may gain another 5% over the next five to six years. This technology's growth, however, remains "somewhat limited" because of innate technological shortcomings and a toxicity stigma, says Shon-Roy.

In addition, "From a supply-chain standpoint, cadmium and tellurium are metals that are not as abundant in availability as materials like aluminum and silicon," she says.

Generally, within a-Si and beyond, thin-film manufacturers that can smartly engage in materials substitution can be reasonably expected to thrive in the new market. "The name of the game for thin-film production is that the materials that are going to be used need to be relatively available and inexpensive," Shon-Roy stresses.

Thin-film cells originally incorporated indium tin oxide as the transparent conductor, for example. This material was subsequently replaced with more readily available and less expensive aluminum zinc oxide, she points out. Although a similarly obvious replacement may not be found again, the quest for such measures remains ever-important.

Meanwhile, as a-Si manufacturers grapple with the new market challenges associated with the silicon glut, an old and formidable hurdle still lingers.

"I think the biggest obstacle for amorphous silicon is its track record," Shon-Roy says. With few completed installations in the field in comparison to other technologies, and relatively short operating histories for most of these existing systems, many utilities and other key purchasers remain wary of a-Si, despite what is generally a lower price tag.

But ultimately, inevitable gaps between lab performance and performance in the field - a classic developing-technology issue to which a-Si has not been immune - can be overcome and help boost a-Si's reputation.

According to Shon-Roy, one recent study showed that the majority of lab-developed technologies will attain 80% of their laboratory results once they reach wide-scale high-volume production, and that any technology takes at least five years before it approaches the upper end of what it can achieve.

[R-BgO]

Report: Global Solar Demand Shifting To Asia
in News Departments > New & Noteworthy
by SI Staff on Tuesday 07 July 2009
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In the last few months, reviews of previously planned expansion programs, restructuring, lower revenue and profit forecasts, as well as cuts in production levels by solar power companies, have been widely covered, notes Frost & Sullivan in a new report.

According to Irina Sidneva, Frost & Sullivan's Asia Pacific program manager of energy and power systems practice, the key reason for the decline, as cited by industry participants, was the weakened demand for solar power projects in major markets like Europe and the U.S. as a result of the global credit crunch.

"This has resulted in the current production overcapacity of solar panels, especially in Europe and the United States," says Sidneva. "There is also considerable pressure on industry participants to streamline their internal operations in order to cut costs, as well as to improve their bottom-line performance," she says.

However, according to Suchitra Sriram, Frost & Sullivan's Asia Pacific industry analyst of energy and power systems practice, the recently announced economic stimulus packages across the Asia Pacific region could lead to new waves of demand for solar power projects, resulting in a shift of demand from the traditionally strong markets in Europe and the U.S. to the Asian heavyweights such as China, Taiwan, South Korea, India and Australia.

"These economic packages have strong potential to turn around the solar power industry in the short to medium term," says Sriram. "In China, the $440 billion stimulus package has put solar power as one of the key green energy resources to be developed in the near future. A number of solar power projects are already under construction throughout the country.

"In Taiwan, a proposal was passed in April 2009 for around $1.3 billion to support research and development and the installations in green energy technologies," Sriram continues. "As part of this proposal, the government has highly prioritized the development of solar power projects, including the installation of Asia's first large-scale solar power plant."

By increasing their shares of domestic market sales in Asia, many multinational solar power companies with manufacturing plants in the region can effectively deal with the production overcapacity problem faced in the U.S. and Europe, according to the report.

For more information, visit www.frost.com.

SOURCE: Frost & Sullivan

[R-BgO]

China makers plan to raise spot quotes for solar wafers and cells


Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 8 July 2009]

Following an increase in polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) spot quotes from US$55/kg to US$60/kg in June by makers in China, China-based suppliers of 6-inch poly-Si solar wafers and solar cells plan to raise their spot quotes by 3-5% and 1-2% respectively this month, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Six-inch poly-Si wafers from China makers currently stand at US$3.5 per wafer on the spot market, while poly-Si solar cells carry an average spot price of US$1.5/watt, the sources said.

[R-BgO]

Fresco Solar offers $2.95 per installed watt pricing for megawatt-scale PV power systems in US
09 July 2009 | By Tom Cheyney | News > Power Generation, Market Watch

Fresco Solar says it will build solar photovoltaic ground arrays of 1MW or more anywhere in the United States for $2.95 per watt or $2.95 million per megawatt system. The Morgan Hill, CA-based engineering, procurement, and construction company bases its new pricing model on the DC STC size of the PV system.

The package includes delivery, installation, and testing of the racking, panels, and inverters as well as associated foundations and wiring. The price does not include sales and use taxes, local permits and fees, and any land development costs.

Fresco CEO Sean Kenny states that "the price of polysilicon has been falling for well over a year and yet new capacity continues to come on stream. The same is true for inverters and all the commodities used in balance of plant components, such as copper, steel and aluminum. This, coupled with our proprietary designs, allows us to offer never before seen prices for turnkey solar plants."

"We're seeing a major shift from residential and commercial projects to municipal and utility scale ones, caused on the one hand by the anemic state of the US economy and on the other by the flow of stimulus funding," continues Kenny. "We and our partners have been working hard to position ourselves to take advantage of the new market conditions."

Solarbuzz's latest retail module price survey found 420 modules priced (without sales tax) below $4.75 per watt, with the lowest prices from U.S. retailers for a multicrystalline silicon module at $2.48 per watt and for a monocrystalline module at $2.80 per watt. As for thin-film panels, the consultancy found units priced as low as $1.76 per watt from an Asian-based retailer.

Module costs usually account for 50% or more of the total installed cost of a PV power system.

Fresco Solar will provide more technical details, manufacturer data, and projected performance numbers at next week's Intersolar North America, Booth 9438.

[SLGramann]

Na schau an, vielleicht gibts im August dann auch mal wieder einen funtionierenden ITC...

The Department of Treasury has issued some guidance on how to apply for a cash grant that would provide 30 percent of the cost of a solar or wind project. But it’s not yet ready to accept applications.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/feds-almost-read…

[UWR_Kerl]

Hallo Leute,

hier gibt´s ein paar Zahlen auf Seite 7.
Fazit: BOS muss runter!!!

und etwas zum Schmunzeln auf Seite 22 ("Die böse, böse Finanzkriese", wurde wahrscheinlich zu dieser Folie gemurmelt).

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9O…

Gruß

[R-BgO]

China raises spot quotes for solar wafers and cells
10 July 2009 | By Emma Hughes | News > Materials

China has announced plans to raise spot quotes for solar wafers and cells. According to Digitimes, an increase in polycrystalline silicon (poly-si) spot quotes from $55/kg to $60/kg in June 2009 prompted the decision.

China-based suppliers of 6-inch poly-Si solar wafers and solar cells plan to raise their spot quotes by 3-5% and 1-2% respectively in July 2009, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

These industry sources have also reported an average spot price of $1.5/watt for poly-Si solar cells, while six-inch poly-Si wafers from China-based makers stand at $3.5 per wafer on the spot market.

[R-BgO]

READY, SET, GO! WITH GRANT RULES IN PLACE, US PROJECT FINANCE MARKET POISED FOR RE-START

In the US, at least half the project financing waiting game is now officially over after two federal agencies last week released guidelines on a critical new grant subsidy programme. Last autumn, the market for US clean energy project finance ground to a halt as the planet’s biggest banks teetered on the verge of oblivion and the world held its breath. Most though not all financial institutions survived the crisis and financing for clean energy projects in most parts of the globe gradually returned to life this year.

Everywhere but the US, that is where so-called “tax equity” financing has long been the lifeblood for wind, solar, geothermal, and other projects. Such investments are predicated on earning tax credits from projects, which third party investors can use to reduce their tax bills.

The problem: no profits and no confidence about future profits on the part of banks means no confidence about tax bills. And no confidence about tax bills means no need for tax credits. And no need for tax credits means no tax equity available for clean energy projects. Little wonder that through the first half of 2009, the US saw just USD 1.9bn in financing for new clean power-generating assets. Compare that with the over USD 20bn in the EMEA region and the pain caused by lack of tax equity becomes all the more clear.

Enter the Obama administration and its USD 787bn economic stimulus package passed in February. The law established a new programme under the Treasury Department that would allow developers to receive cash grants roughly equivalent to the benefit they would have received from tax credits. Clean energy and its financial backers were overjoyed.

Then the waiting began. Project financiers said they would not back new projects until they understood clearly from Treasury about the new grant programme's implementation. Starved of capital, developers could not build. Starved of new orders from developers, US wind turbine manufacturing plants went quiet and began cutting jobs.

Winter turned to spring, spring turned to summer and still no rules. Finally, last week Treasury and the US Department of Energy unveiled the new guidelines and said they would begin accepting grant applications from 1 August.

The rules themselves appear to represent nearly everything the industry had sought. The federal government’s definition of capital expenditures related to developing a clean energy project are simple and fairly logical, based on existing tax code. Developers backed by non-profit entities such as pension funds may qualify to receive the grant, provided they create the right legal structures. The government will not seek to “claw back” the grants too aggressively unless ownership of the project transfers to a non-qualified entity under the law. The grants are to be issued 60 days after a project is commissioned.

All in all, the rules seem fair. Now the only question is whether the Treasury is ready for the onslaught of grant applications expected to begin arriving on 1 August. To deal with the load, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has been contracted to lend a hand.

Exactly how many projects will apply for the grants is unclear. The Energy Department last week estimated 5,000 applications are possible and that the cost to taxpayers would be about USD 3bn. The first estimate is probably too high and the second is certainly too low as it would result in just 5GW of new nameplate capacity in the US. Given that 8.5GW of wind alone were installed last year that would be a disappointment to the Obama administration which hopes to double clean energy capacity over three years by adding roughly 25GW.

Despite last week’s action, the waiting game is not yet over. The Energy Department has yet to issue rules pertaining to its new loan guarantee programme, anticipated this month.

[Soulrider82]

Spot quotes for poly-Si rise to US$72-73/kg
Thursday 16 July 2009

Spot prices for solar-grade polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) quoted by some of international suppliers have edged up to US$72-73/kg recently compared to the previous US$70/kg due to increasing demand, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090716PD201.html

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.599.980 von Soulrider82 am 18.07.09 19:45:53

Das ist sehr interessant! Vielen Dank für den Tip.

[R-BgO]

Intersolar North America postscripts: Will there be enough polysilicon in 2012?
19 July 2009 | By Tom Cheyney | Chip Shots

As the solar PV industry rushes headlong into the gigawatt era, the hunger for large quantities of polysilicon will need to be sated to keep the engine humming—even with thin-film PV taking a bigger bite of market share. Although the supply shortage has abated, few observers seem to have a firm grip on just how much poly will be in the pipeline and how much will be needed to meet the cell and module demand in the coming years. A presentation at the just-concluded Intersolar North America show in San Francisco brought some clarity to the poly supply discussion.

Hemlock Semiconductor VP Gary Homan reviewed how his employer has been adding capacity at a fast clip and will continue to do so for the next five years. With $4 billion in announced expansions, the poly-pack-leading firm projects reaching manufacturing capacities of 36,000 metric tons in 2010 and 63,000 metric tons by 2014 at its plants in Michigan and Tennessee—up from its current capacity of just under 30,000MT.

In terms of what’s been announced within the poly sector, that 63,000MT would place Hemlock far ahead of the number two company in the space, Wacker, which has about 35,000MT projected capacity on the board.

But unlike some other presentations that day, Homan’s talk was not just an infomercial. He provided some analyses and observations of the overall market that bear repeating.

Acknowledging the easing of the silicon shortage and an overall improvement in the sector, he wondered about how the effect of price erosion will drive demand and how future costs may affect the expansion plans of some poly manufacturers. He believes that all of the extra capacity coming online—essentially a 100% pop over the past year, enough to support 10GW of solar production—is contributing to driving silicon costs closer to grid parity levels.

Homan made no secret of his skepticism about some of the announcements made by upstart poly players, especially certain Chinese firms who he discounted as being little more than “smoke and mirrors.” He questioned many of the new entrants’ “sustainability,” wondering about their ability to attract more venture or public financing, and whether they have what it takes to reduce their costs to meet the challenging criteria of the grid parity model (which some established poly companies have already done).

hemlock_semi_rodsNoting how efficiency in the poly world consists of a combination of quality and consistency, he said that “cost of ownership demands high efficiency per gram of silicon,” and that “lower-priced virgin poly will offer the best cost of ownership” based on a lower price coming from a lower cost structure. “Hyperpurity levels equal a higher photon efficiency,” Homan noted, and consistent, predicable quality results in higher yields.

He used two data sets for his global polysilicon forecasts, both based on a combination of public information and Hemlock’s own number crunching. One set incorporated all the announcements made in the space from both established and new players. The other, adjusted for grid parity costs, provided a more conservative outlook for the sector. (See chart below)

The all-in version forecasts about a 4.4x increase in the market between 2008 and 2014, from 61,000 to 269,000MT. The more measured projection shows the growth in the 3.3x range, from 64,000 to 209,000MT. The gap between the two data sets’ forecasts increases year after year, growing from a difference of 8,000MT for 2009 to a 25,000MT discrepancy in 2010and reaches 60,000MT in 2014 between the all-in and grid parity-adjusted versions.

If the cell and module demand for poly grows at about 33% per year, what Homan called a moderate pace, his grid parity-adjusted forecast shows the silicon sector able to meet demand up to at least 2014. Just the announced planned capacity of the established poly players alone would be sufficient to meet demand, according to the Hemlock exec.

But if growth takes off at a per-annum rate closer to 50%, another poly shortage could occur by 2012-2013, as Homan's more conservative data showed. The combination of the capacity to be added by both the veteran companies and the newbies would be insufficient to meet the growth potential of an end-market possibly needing enough silicon to build at least 26-28GWp of crystalline-based modules, according to Homan’s analyses.

Although he made no direct mention of the impact of silicon-reducing technological improvements such as the development and deployment of more efficient poly reactors and ultrathin, kerf-free wafering techniques, his poly-per-module data trended toward slightly better usage over the five-year span.

The more growth-aggressive of Homan’s scenarios suggests that silicon—and the availability or scarcity thereof—could again emerge as a game-changer in a few years. But if poly producers young and old successfully maintain a high quality level and drive their costs down to less than 10% of the total bill of module materials, the type of poly spot-price inflation seen in the mid-2000s may not rear its head again, and the sandy stuff will play its part on the crystalline side of the grid-parity achievement game.

[lieberlong]

Das ist auch krass:

China quotes for metallurgical-grade silicon falls to US$1-2/kg (Jul 10)

Ist leider nur die headline, da der Artikel kostenpflichtig ist.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.073 von lieberlong am 20.07.09 17:33:15

da isser:

China quotes for metallurgical-grade silicon falls to US$1-2/kg


Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 10 July 2009]

China-based producers of metallurgical-grade silicon (MGS), a material for making polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si), have lowered their quotes to US$1-2/kg currently due to stagnant sales of solar cells, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

China-based producers account for 80% of the global MGS output, the sources pointed out. However, MGS takes up only a small portion of the total production cost of poly-Si, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.073 von lieberlong am 20.07.09 17:33:15

Weißt du, von welchem Preisniveau die kommen?

Globe Specialty will gerade IPO'en...

"Silicon Metal Customers
We sell silicon metal to over 180 companies, including 12 Fortune 500 companies, located in over
16 countries. We typically have purchase commitments for a significant portion of a year’s production by
the end of the preceding year which allows us to better estimate our revenues and profitability. Our silicon
metal production for the furnaces currently operating is committed for the balance of calendar year 2009,
and we have the ability to turn additional furnaces on to support an increase in demand. For the nine
months ended March 31, 2009 our top ten silicon metal customers collectively represented approximately
77% of our net silicon metal sales, with the largest two customers, Dow Corning Corporation and Wacker
Chemie AG, representing approximately 27% and 17% of net silicon metal sales, respectively, and
approximately 16% and 10% of total sales, respectively."

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.189 von R-BgO am 20.07.09 17:46:56

Weißt du, von welchem Preisniveau die kommen?

Hab grobe 25$ im Hinterkopf, allerdings noch aus 2008.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.073 von lieberlong am 20.07.09 17:33:15

gibt es eigentlich ausser Q-cells, CSIQ und TSL noch jemanden der mit UMG arbeitet?(denke mal schon kenne aber nur die drei wobei Trina eigentlich nur die technologie hat aber mehr oder weniger garkeine UMG panels verkauft...)mfg CW

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.245 von lieberlong am 20.07.09 17:54:06

Hab grobe 25$ im Hinterkopf, allerdings noch aus 2008.


Na ja, für UMG sind wohl mal um die 50 bis 60 Dollar gezahlt worden.

Metallurgisches Silizium - das ein Vorprodukt für UMG wie für Siemens-Si, wie auch für die metallverarbeitende Industrie im allgemeinen ist und mit einer Jahreskapazität von mehreren Millionen Tonnen hergestellt wird - hat immer nur so um die 2 bis 3 Dollar gekostet.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.401 von dicki31785 am 20.07.09 18:12:21

Vorsicht!

Nicht m-Si und umg-Si verwechseln.

In der Meldung geht es, glaube ich um um m-Si; und so schlimm sind die Preise dann nicht:

http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/Public/Silicon_Price_Ch…

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.477 von R-BgO am 20.07.09 18:22:30

das macht eindeutig mehr sinndanke...mfg CW

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.477 von R-BgO am 20.07.09 18:22:30

OK, wohl mein Fehler! Alles in allem dürften die UMG-Si - Reize dennoch verblasst sein. Sehr schön bei Solarworld/Scheuten zu sehen, da sie eigentlich schon in Produktion sein müssten...

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.608.463 von SLGramann am 20.07.09 18:19:58

Na ja, für UMG sind wohl mal um die 50 bis 60 Dollar gezahlt worden.

Ja, vor einem Jahr. Da war poly-spot bei 500 $. Die 25 $ hatte ich im Q4/08 mal gelesen...

Wie auch immer, diese Preise werden nie wieder bezahlt werden!

[R-BgO]

Rogol's SPI für Juli ist da:


54$ contract (55 im Vormonat)
69$ spot (72 im Vormonat)

[R-BgO]

so langsam wird's mainstream:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,637358,00.html

[R-BgO]

July 21, 2009, 12:26 pm
Analysts See Little Upside from China Solar Subsidies
Posted by Tiernan Ray

Tomorrow (which will actually be today over here in the Western hemisphere), citizens of China will have an opportunity to see the longest solar eclipse this century.

Another dim view is offered today on the solar tech industry in China from FBR Capital analyst Mehdi Hosseini in a note he sent to clients.

Hosseini, writing about a pronouncement from China’s Ministry of Finance, says solar subsidies from the government are good PR for solar tech companies, but already baked into his estimates for the industry. In brief, the Ministry said it would subsidize solar projects of no less than 500 megawatts over a period of two to three years, and perhaps pay for half the cost of solar installations and transmission equipment.

“We are already assuming 300MW of installation in China in CY09, 750MW in CY10 and well over 1GW/yr after CY10,” writes Hosseini. “Thus, the real material impact from the China market may be already baked into our industry estimates!” Hosseini says the hyper-inflated expectations for demand in China, and subsidies, must not distract from a massive “de-leveraging” of the balance sheets of Chinese solar tech firms. Hosseini reiterates his “Underperform” rating on shares of First Solar (FSLR), Suntech (STP), and Trina Solar (TSL), with price targets of $110, $8, and $16 on those stocks, respectively.

Hosseini seems not to be alone in his lack of enthusiasm. Collins Stewart analyst Dan Ries writes in a note today that the implied solar demand was also baked into his own estimates. “Our forecast assumes that China’s demand for solar modules will be 250MW in CY09 and will grow to
700MW in CY10 and to perhaps over 1,000MW by 2011,” writes Ries. “Our forecast
had assumed additional subsidies such as the one announced today, and is therefore unchanged by the announcement.”

“In our view this announcement is a modest positive for the Chinese solar shares, as it makes it clear that the Chinese gover nment has the intention to provide the subsidies needed to drive solar adoption throughout the country and is rolling out the programs to do so.” Ries has a “Buy” rating on Trina and also on Yingli Green Energy (YGE), and he thinks Chinese solar tech manufacturers will be the primary beneficiaries of the programs.

Today, First Solar shares are up $7.50, or 5%, at $154.10, Suntech is up $1.44, or 9%, at $17.63, Yingli shares are up 83 cents, or 7.5%, at $12.25, and Trina is up $1.30, or 5%, at $27.70.

[R-BgO]

Europe raises minimum energy conversion rates for poly-Si solar cells

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Monday 20 July 2009]

Many clients in Europe have raised the minimum energy conversion rates for poly-Si solar cells from 15.8% to 16-16.2%, according to Taiwan-based makers.

Solar cells with energy conversion rates lower than 16-16.2% are now being classified as low-end products, the sources indicated.

The hike in energy conversion rates is partly because silicon has not seen supply shortages as it did in 2008, the sources explained.

[R-BgO]

Japanese solar cell manufacturers losing market share, says IC Insights
22 July 2009 | By Mark Osborne | News > Market Watch


In a new report from IC Insights, major solar cell manufacturers from Japan are finding the competition tough from relatively new players from the U.S. (First Solar), Germany (Q-Cells SE), China (Suntech) and the likes of Taiwan-based Motech. The 2006 number-one supplier, Sharp, was said to have suffered the most, falling to fourth-ranked supplier by revenue in 2008, according to the market research firm.

However, other Japanese-based suppliers also suffered from the rising competition, the report found. Kyocera slipped from the No. 5 spot in 2007 to No. 6 in 2008. Sanyo, which was No. 7 in the 2007 ranking, did not make IC Insights' top 10 ranking in 2008. Mitsubishi also saw its position in the rankings fall.

China is increasingly becoming a major supplier. The report noted that Suntech slipped from No. 2 to No. 3 on MW growth below that of the total global industry, while JA Solar went from No. 10 to No. 7 in the ranking based on 109% growth in MW sales in 2008. Yingli Green Energy move up one spot on the strength of 93% growth.

In Taiwan, Motech Industries overtook Japan-based Kyocera, moving from No. 6 to No. 5, due to a 67% increase in MW sales.

According to IC Insights the most notable climber was Gintech, which equaled First Solar's growth of 144% in MW sales in 2008, enabling it to move up from No. 12 to No. 8 in the ranking.

The future is set to cause significant disruption to the rankings as the market slows and small revenue increments that separate many of the top players play their part. Also new investments by Sharp in thin film could reverse its loss in share.

The top four suppliers all achieved MW market shares of between 8.0% and 9.5%. IC Insights argues that a second tier of suppliers was formed by those ranked No. 5 through No. 10, all having between 4% and 5% market share, with several additional suppliers close behind.

[R-BgO]

Heute gab es mal wieder was Neues:

FSLR investiert GEMEINSAM mit einem Kunden in neue FERTIGUNGSKAPAZITÄT!


July 23, 2009, 10:57 am
Sacrebleu! First Solar to Build France’s Largest Solar Plant
Posted by Tiernan Ray

Solar panel technology maker First Solar (FSLR) this morning announced that it will build France’s largest solar-panel manufacturing facility in collaboration with Paris-based Energies Nouvelles SA (EEN), traded on the Euronext, which has focused to date mainly on building wind capacity, for a total investment of 90 million Euros, or roughly $128 million.

No word on whether the plant will be near a delicious wine region.

The plant will be capable of producing 100 megawatts of capacity, will employ 300 people, and will reach full capacity in the second half of 2011, the companies said.

EDF has already done “a number of projects” installing First Solar’s panels, the company said.

In a note to clients this morning, Collins Stewart analyst Dan Ries says that while the commitment by a “major European renewable industry player” to FSLR is a positive, he’s still concerned whether FSLR can meet this year’s forecast for revenue and profits, especially given concerns about pricing control, and he maintains a “Hold” rating on the stock. Ries is modeling $1.963 billion in sales this year, versus company forecast of $1.9 billion to $2 billion. The Street is at $1.923 billion.

Speaking for the bulls, Wedbush Morgan’s Al Kaschalk maintains an “Outperform” rating on First Solar this morning and a $170 price target, writing that the development is a positive for FSLR, as it should help the company increase its market share in France. Kaschalk didn’t change any estimates and he is modeling $1.985 billion in sales this year.

Broadpoint/Amtech’s John Hardy is even more positive, writing this morning that the deal proves the strength of France’s subsidy for solar (the country intends to have 20% of energy produce from renewables by 2020), and, even more, he thinks it shows the “long-term cost advantage” of First Solar’s product, given that deals with pre-payments and long-term contracts of this sort are increasingly rare in the industry. “The most important take-away in our view,” writes Hardy, “is that management feels comfortable that its current capacity is accounted for in out-years. While near-term project financing remains difficult to come by for larger projects, we do not view this as steady-state, and project economics will begin to drive demand as credit markets normalize.” Hardy maintains a “Buy” rating on the shares and a $250 price target. He did not change any of his estimates, and is forecasting $2 billion in sales this year.

[R-BgO]

Optimism rules at Intersolar despite slowdown

by Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting

July 23, 2009 - At Intersolar North America last week (July 14-16) optimism ruled, despite a continuing global recession, slow recovery of lending, soft demand, and crashing prices. Examples of hope could be found everywhere at the show. Ad hoc conversations held reports of strong growth, albeit several months in the future, with most believing that the US stimulus would eventually stimulate something.

PV industry growth in MWs, 1974-2009.
The photovoltaic industry and all of its various participants are nothing if not resilient. On the supply side of the market (manufacturers of technology), losing money was a reality for over thirty years. On the demand side of the market (installers, system integrators, et al), a hyper competitive marketplace, a long sales cycle, and expensive system components often led to razor-thin margins. Early participants in the photovoltaic industry felt like -- and were -- pioneers in an energy market where solar was not considered competition for conventional energy.

During the early years of the industry when overall volume was much lower, remote (off-grid) applications provided ballast to the volatility of the grid-connected application. Grid-connected application requires incentives or demonstration programs to continue growing, whereas remote applications are already economically viable. Though affordability and workable business models continue to constrain growth, the remote applications are already at grid-parity. In fact, for the remote applications, grid-parity is a non-issue.

The point is that the photovoltaic industry knows how to suffer; it has had a lot of experience over time. Technology sales are a push -- not a pull -- for the grid-connected application. Except for a four-year period from 2004 through 2008, manufacturer margins have been painfully thin, and industry volume relies on the unreliable grid-connected application. In the early years a dip in grid-connected demand was hardly noticeable; at 94% of total industry sales, however, it is more of a deep dive. The table at right provides a not-so-brief history of industry volatility along with a forecast for 2009 for three scenarios, recession, conservative and accelerated.

So...what now?

With a slowdown in sales from 17% to 32% all but assured, an atmosphere of doom might be expected, but at Intersolar the view was solidly on the positive future. Today might be gloomy and instant gratification always delayed, but technology, business model, and market development continues. Obviously, PV industry participants are made of tough stuff.

Along with its pioneering spirit and basic optimism, the 2004-2008 boom proved to the industry that it was right to believe in its eventual success. Make no mistake, this is essentially an industry of true believers -- and recent technology revenue growth has made the art of being a true believer much easier. In 2004, driven by accelerating cell and module prices, technology revenues increased by 72% over the previous years. In 2005, revenues increased by 39%; in 2006 by 43%; in 2007 by 65%; and in 2008 technology revenues increased by 80% over the previous year. Unfortunately, in 2009 revenues may decrease by as much as 40% from 2008 levels, with the current softening in sales and steep decrease in technology prices. (The figure below offers a view of technology revenues and a forecast, from 2003-2013.)

Lessons learned?

If there is a lesson to be learned from industry enthusiasm in the face of significant and daunting obstacles of technology development, market difficulties, and potential near term unprofitability it may be as simple as this: If a thing is worth doing, it is worth continuing to do despite the obstacles. Profitability will return to the photovoltaic industry, after a while. Strong demand will return to the industry, but it will take hard work and some time for market development and recovery. Costs will continue to decline and prices will continue to dance with the market, sometimes up and sometimes down. New participants will enter bringing with them new and challenging ideas -- some of which will have no impact whatsoever, and some of which will prove industry-changing. Through it all, the industry will prosper on the visions of optimists like the ones who attended Intersolar North America, who see adversity and still believe.


Paula Mints is principal analyst, PV Services Program, and associate director in the energy practice at Navigant Consulting. E-mail: [e-mail].

[SLGramann]

Könnte Rogol doch recht behalten?

Gerade lese ich in der Photon 7/2009 eine - natürlich sehr grobe - Hochrechnung, wonach in Deutschland im 1. Quartal 250 bis 300 MW installiert worden sind. Allein im Monat April könnten es dann aber 450 bis 500 MW gewesen sein.

Wenn man das mal für die verbleibenden 8 Monate hochrechnet, kämen nochmals 3,6 bis 4 GW dazu.

Insgesamt lägen wir dann bei 4,3 bis 4,7 GW. Indes ist aber damit zu rechnen, dass das Installationsvolumen im 2. Halbjahr deutlich ansteigen dürfte, so dass der deutsche Markt am Ende eher im Bereich 6 bis 7 GW landen könnte.

Natürlich sind die verfügbaren Zahlen unsicher und die Hochrechnung ist sehr schematisch bzw. "aus der Hüfte geschossen". Außerdem klingen 6 bis 7 GW in 2009 allein in Deutschland einfach unglaubwürdig. Indes hat im letzten Jahr auch in Spanien niemand die 3 GW vorhergesehen bzw. hätte eine solche Prognose unglaubwürdig geklungen. Passiert ist es trotzdem.

(Welche politischen Folgen ein Installationsvolumen im hier vermuteten Maß nach sich ziehen würde, steht auf einem anderen Blatt. Sie würden jedenfalls dramatisch sein. Der Deckel wäre dann m.E. sicher.)

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.645.165 von SLGramann am 25.07.09 09:32:11

Deine Hochrechnung ist aber sehr "exzessiv", mal eben schnell alle positiven Faktoren zusammen nehmen und schon haben wir eine gigantisch hohe Zahl.

Für Januar-April gab es wohl Sondereffekte - u.a. recht kalter Winter im Süden, der Projekte verzögert hat; zunächst recht schwache Preissenkungen bei den Anlagen... aber dann immer weiter sinkende Preise.
Es dürften sich also ein paar Anlagen aus dem Winter in den April verschoben haben - vielleicht 100 MW? Und dann einfach nur anzunehmen, dass es in den Folgemonaten (u.a. dann auch November/Dezember) mit gleichem Volumen weitergeht, halte ich schon für optimistisch. Dann aber noch mal so ungefähre eine Verdopplung der Installationszahlen anzusetzen, ist vielleicht dilettantisch.

Irgendwann kämen bei der steigenden Nachfrage dann auch wieder Preiserhöhungen der Anlagen - Lager sind dann leer bei den Herstellern und es macht auch keiner mehr Dumpingpreise.

Also insgesamt 5-6 GW könnte ich mir noch vorstellen. Mehr aber nicht.

Der Vergleich mit Spanien hinkt in zweierlei Hinsicht. Zum einen war es eine Sondersituation durch das Gesetz mit der "akuten" Deadline. Und dann war aber auch seit Ende 2007 ziemlich klar, was dort 2008 passieren würde. Sicher nicht auf das MW genau, aber dass man über 2 GW landen würde, war wohl schon lange erkenn bar.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.646.588 von JoergP am 25.07.09 19:26:51

Joerg, mir kommen "meine" Zahlen ja selbst etwas wunderlich vor und das ist sicher auch nur als (Extrem)-Szenario gemeint. Aber für zumindest möglich halte ich es schon. Dein "Verschiebeargument" ist gut. Auf der anderen Seite glaube ich nicht, dass der Markt wirklich eng wird und die Preise steigen müssen, wenn wir in Deutschland zwischen 6 und 7 GW landen. Und ob die Förderung der PV in 2010 noch so großzügig sein wird, wie derzeit, ist unsicher - also etwas Druck, jetzt zu installieren ist schon da. Der deutsche Markt könnte jedenfalls in 2009 für eine echte Überraschung sorgen und weit jenseits der bisher veranschlagten 1,5 bis 2 GW landen. Wenn ich mit meinem Szenario nur einigermaßen richtig liege, dürften bereits die Q2-Zahlen der chinesischen Hersteller volumenseitig positiv überraschen. Und mal sehen, was der Herbst so bringt.

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.646.902 von SLGramann am 25.07.09 21:41:28

Naja, das sind jetzt natürlich zwei extreme Positionen. Die 1,5 - 2 GW halte ich auch für eindeutig zu niedrig. Aber >5 wäre schon gigantisch. Dass es an die 7 GW herangehen könnte, glaube ich beim Besten Willen nicht.
We will see.

Den Weiterbestand des EEG in 2010 halte ich allerdings für sicher. Es kämpft ja keine unserer grösseren Parteien ernsthaft dagegen. Vielleicht kommen noch stärkere Reduzierungen der Vergütung. Dann aber wohl auch erst 2011. Und auch das halte ich für unwahrscheinlich. Die jährliche Degression ist ja relativ hoch und die Anpassung gemäss der Installationszahlen auch schon ganz vernünftig vorgesehen. Von daher sehe ich nicht, dass eine der Parteien da nach der Bundestagswahl dann ganz schnell etwas ändern wollen würde... da dürfte es wichtigere Themen geben.

Im Zweifelsfall käme der PV und dem EEG dann wohl auch noch so etwas wie Konjunkturunterstützung zugute. Bevor man noch mehr die Autoindustrie bezuschusst würde man dann hoffentlich die PV-Industrie zumindest nicht schädigen. Hoffen wir mal

[R-BgO]

Four Problems Facing Solar Power Companies 1 comment
by: E4 Capital July 27, 2009 | about: CSIQ / ESLR / FSLR / SPWRA / STP / YGE

We see at least four structural problems facing existing public solar power companies:

1. There is risk that some new entrant will leapfrog them by developing a better, disruptive technology.
2. Solar energy has to compete with the memory chip industry for its raw semiconducting materials, which, much like corn, gasoline and ethanol, breaks the link between input cost and selling price.
3. Competition comes not just from other producers of solar energy, but from other producers of electricity from other alternatives and conventional sources. On a LCOE basis, solar will usually lose on pure economics. Thus,
4. Demand is heavily reliant on subsidies that will inevitably be reduced or phased out.

Solar produced energy, ultimately, is highly compelling, given it is the shortest path to useable power, provided it can continue to lower costs significantly; there are plenty of other reasons to like solar which we don’t need to list as they are well known. Also, it is competitive now in some marginal situations (locations with very high insolation, very high costs of grid-based electricity, very high subsidies), but valuations suggest investors anticipate far larger markets. Something we don’t predict will be seen from the current set of public solar companies.

On point #1, we noted an article in the July 25 Economist magazine about two private Israeli companies (GreenSun Energy and 3G Solar), each with a promising-sounding technology. We won’t try to summarize them here, but the point is that this is one of many examples of pre-commercial technology that could potentially render current production methods obsolete, very quickly.

The rapid growth of many of the public solar energy companies also suggests that this is a relatively easy business to enter, another risk to the valuations of the current players. Suntech Power Holdings (STP) began operations in May 2002, went public in December 2005, and is a major player, to pick just one example.

In our view, it is far too early for the market to be declaring who the “winners” are in the race for dominant positions in solar energy, as these two companies profiled in the Economist are just examples of what are probably hundreds of companies working on solar technologies.

[SLGramann]

Photon Profi zu Juli-Spotmarkt und factory-gate-Preisen:


So kosteten Module aus China, Indien, Taiwan und Thailand Anfang Juli durchschnittlich 1,85 Euro/W. Im Juni lagen die Preise noch bei knapp 2,00 Euro/W. Module aus Europa und den USA sind am Spotmarkt für durchschnittlich 2,33 Euro/W erhältlich. Erstmals veröffentlicht PHOTON Profi zusätzlich Modulpreise ab Werk. Diese lagen für kristalline Module Anfang Juli bei 1,62 Euro/W - also noch deutlich unter den Spotmarktpreisen.


http://www.solarserver.de/solarmagazin/news.html#topbanner

[king_of_fools]

http://photon.de/news_archiv/details.aspx?cat=News_Archiv&su…

»Der Markt steht vor einem Boom«


28.07.2009: In einer Sitzung Anfang Juni reduzierte die zuständige parlamentarische Unterkommission die im ursprünglichen Gesetzentwurf genannten Werte, die bei 28 Cent pro Kilowattstunde in den ersten zehn Jahren und 22 Cent in der zweiten Dekade lagen, ...

© Mugla University

Diese fassadenintegrierte 40-Kilowatt-Anlage der Universität von Mugla hat die Photovoltaikleistung, die in das türkische Stromnetz eingespeist wird, fast verdoppelt


.... auf 25 Cent beziehungsweise 20 Cent pro Kilowattstunde. Mit dieser Überarbeitung, die sanfter ausfiel als von manchen befürchtet, ist der Entwurf einen wichtigen Schritt weitergekommen auf seinem Weg durch die Instanzen: Er liegt nun bei der Hauptkommission für Energie und geht von dort in das türkische Parlament, die »Große Nationalversammlung«, welches über das Gesetz entscheiden wird.
Zwar können auch diese Stationen noch Änderungen vornehmen oder das Gesetz ganz verwerfen, doch Sener Oktik geht davon aus, dass die Regelungen noch dieses Jahr in Kraft treten. »Das hoffen wir alle«, betont der Leiter des Forschungszentrums für saubere Energien an der Universtät Mugla, der zugleich Mitglied der EU-Arbeitsgruppe »Photovoltaic Technology Platform« ist. Harun Girgin vom größten türkischen Solarinstallateur Aneltech Inc. zeigt noch mehr Optimismus: Er habe gehört, das Einspeisegesetz könnte bereits im Juni verabschiedet werden, teilte er PHOTON mit. Die dazugehörigen Verordnungen könnten im September folgen. Dann werde die Energieregulierungsbehörde EPDK (Enerji Piyasasi Düzenleme Kurumu) an einem Stichtag Anträge für große Solarparks entgegennehmen, erläutert Girgin. Das werde irgendwann im Herbst passieren. Aneltech selbst will eine Lizenz für ein 10,5-Megawatt-Kraftwerk erwerben, mit der Option, die Anlage später noch zu vergrößern.
Für Photovoltaikanlagen mit weniger als 500 Kilowatt Leistung wird man wohl keine Lizenz benötigen, wenn lediglich der über den Eigenbedarf hinausgehende Überschuss in das Netz einspeist wird. Hier greifen dann andere Regeln als bei der Volleinspeisung: Selbstverbraucher erhalten 15 Jahre lang 35 Cent pro Kilowattstunde eingespeisten Stroms, wenn die Menge pro Monat 3.000 Kilowattstunden unterschreitet. Bei mehr als 3.000 Kilowattstunden im Monat sinkt der garantierte Kaufpreis auf 30 Cent pro Kilowattstunde. Mehr als 6.000 Kilowattstunden monatlich werden nicht akzeptiert. Angesichts der türkischen Sonneneinstrahlungswerte geht Oktik davon aus, dass Photovoltaikanlagen bis zu einer Größe von etwa 50 Kilowatt im Süden des Landes in den Genuss dieser Überschussregelung kommen werden. Er erwartet jedoch auch, dass »schon bald nach Inkrafttreten des Gesetzes eine Verordnung veröffentlicht wird, die dies genauer regelt«.
Um die Photovoltaikindustrie in der Türkei zu stärken, beinhaltet das Gesetz zusätzliche Subventionen für Anlagen, deren Komponenten in dem eurasischen Staat produziert wurden. Laut Oktik hat die Unterkommission hierzu eine Liste erstellt, welche für jedes Bauteil einen Aufschlag in Cent pro Kilowattstunde aufführt. Bis jetzt gibt es nur eine Wechselrichterproduktion in der Türkei, doch das muss nicht so bleiben: Girgin hat angekündigt, sein Unternehmen werde im August eine Modulfertigungslinie mit 13,5 Megawatt Jahreskapazität in Betrieb nehmen und plane zudem, 2011 in die Produktion von Dünnschichtmodulen einzusteigen.
Bisher ist nicht klar, ob es einen Deckel oder eine Größenbegrenzung pro Anlage geben wird oder ob die für die Förderung bereitgestellten Gelder begrenzt sind. Laut Tanay Sidki Uyar, dem Präsidenten der türkischen Eurosolar-Sektion, ist davon zwar bisher nicht die Rede, aber ausdrücklich geregelt sind diese Punkte in dem neuen Gesetz nicht. Doch wie auch immer die Details in den Verordnungen gefasst werden, Oktik ist überzeugt: »Der türkische Photovoltaikmarkt steht vor einem Boom.«
Neelke Wagner, William P. Hirshman
© PHOTON, 2009
Vervielfältigung nur mit Genehmigung der PHOTON Europe GmbH, Aachen

Liest sich ganz gut, nur glaube ich nicht, dass das Gesetz im Juni verabschiedet wird.

[R-BgO]

nach den bisher veröffentlichten Daten würde ich eher auf 500MW tippen...


July 27, 2009, 17:28 (CEST)

Italy Set to Become World's Second Largest Solar PV Market in 2009
An attractive feed-in tariff incentive and rapidly decreasing solar module prices have made Italy the most attractive PV market in the world. This year, Italy is set to become the world's second largest PV market after Germany, the undisputed leader.
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Italy Set to Become World's Second Largest Solar PV Market in 2009

GSE, the state-run Italian power management agency, expects that total installed PV power will reach 900 MW by the end of 2009. This represents 100% growth compared to 2008, with approximately 70,000 new-build PV installations in 2009. GSE expects the market to grow further to 1500 MW in 2010, resulting in a compound annual growth rate of 135% for the PV market in the period 2006-2010.

In 2008, total revenues approached 1.15 billion euros, an increase of 150% over 2007. The Italian feed-in tariff for solar energy produced is €0.372 per kilowatt hour for roof projects of between three and 20 kiloWatts. In addition, solar energy produced can be sold to the utility at €0.08/kWh. Total remuneration is comparable to what was available in Spain during the market boom in 2008. In Italy, however, solar module prices are almost half the level they were last year. These favorable conditions have attracted many new companies, and led to a fragmented market with more than 600 players. Unlike the ground-mounted large power plants developed in Spain in 2008, most PV installations in Italy are roof-mounted projects which are located in the northern part of Italy. This is because of regulatory and grid connection issues in the sunnier south of Italy, where developers have scheduled larger power plants.

The market cap of 1200 MW cumulative installed PV power is expected to be reached by late 2009 or early 2010. This will leave 14 months for projects to be completed. What will happen after this remains an unknown. Plans have been presented to extend market stimulation with lower feed-in tariffs. Some experts, however, believe that new incentives in southern Italy will no longer be necessary in 2011, as grid-parity could be reached due to high grid electricity prices.

At the third Solarplaza Global PV Demand Conference on 22 September 2009 in Hamburg, a representative and market expert from the Italian PV Industry Association will discuss the current market situation, and present forecasts for the booming Italian market. More information is available at www.globaldemandconference.com.

[R-BgO]

ist das plausibel? Habe bisher mit deutlich höheren Werten gerechnet.



http://www.ftd.de/asset/Image/2009/07/26/Solarworld_kl.gif

[R-BgO]

July 27, 2009, 3:32 pm
Report: Solar Tech Prices Headed Down on Massive Glut
Posted by Tiernan Ray

This sounds like fairly old news, but for what it’s worth, market research firm iSuppli today reports that Q1 — yes, not Q2, Q1 — supply of solar panel modules ramped up at the beginning of this year and came into collision with slack demand, sending inventories up 64.3%. iSuppli analyst Dr. Henning Wicht describe this as “the equivalent of one-and-a-half months of excess inventory.” He warns that with further polysilicon capacity ramping up this year — the basic ingredient of solar cells — the industry “will suffer further price erosion, at all nodes of the value chain.” Wicht predicts polysilicon will drop to $50 per kilogram by the end of this year, down 72% from a current $180 per kilogram at the beginnin g of this year.

As evidence of disastrous economics filtering through the supply chain, Wicht cites weak results from China’s Yingli Green Energy Holdings (YGE), Norwegian firm Renewable Energy Corp., or REC, and Germany’s SolarWorld AG (SWV), which are “fully integrated,” meaning that they sell raw polysilicon, polysilicon wafers, and photovoltaic cells. Even for standalone cell and module makers, days of inventory have risen to 105 from 47 in Q3 of 2008, says Wicht. Companies that just make wafers or raw polysilicon will feel the effects of polysilicon glut later to this year. “This node in the chain will be hit with additional capacity coming online from major existing and relatively new polysilicon players. Such a development will lead to severe turmoil [...] as the spot market will be flooded with excess capacity” lasting into 2010, he predicts.

[R-BgO]

Da der Preis von GCL-Poly in den letzten Tagen um 40% angezogen hat, habe ich mir den Wert mal etwas genauer angesehen.

Es gibt eine schöne Studie auf deren Webseite (http://www.gcl-poly.com.hk/download/analyst/BOCI.pdf), die sehr interessante Einblicke bietet: u.a.

-daß die Produktionskosten aktuell bei 36,60$/kg liegen
-daß Baoding Tianwei auch ein SI-Producer ist


auf der Google-Seite zu Baoding fand ich noch folgende Meldung (wären noch 51$ pro Tonne):


Sichuan PolySi Cos Brace for Price Drops

Posted on Jul 16, 2009 | 18:07


Sichuan's provincial Economic Commission has announced that polysilicon prices currently stand at around RMB 500,000 per ton, down from 2007's RMB 3 million per ton, while an employee of the commission's Machinery and Metallurgy Material Department said they are preparing to ask the provincial government for "market saving" policies if there are further heavy price drops, West China City Daily reports. The commission said Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co. Ltd. (600550.SH) subsidiary Sichuan Xinguang Silicon Science and Technology recorded profits of more than RMB 100 million in the first half of 2009, down from roughly RMB 410 million in the first half of 2008. An insider said a number of polysilicon companies had put production on hold.

Sichuan's polysilicon capacity will stand at around 31,750 metric tons by 2010, the report said.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.656.816 von SLGramann am 28.07.09 07:38:27

Und im Juli dann ja wohl weiter runter unter die 1,90 Euro / Watt.

[R-BgO]

Hi SLG,

was machst Du aus den bisher veröffentlichten Zahlen (MEMC, SPWR, vorab: Solarworld, Q-Cells)?

Am meisten überrascht hat mich, daß Solarworld zum ersten Mal (seit langem?) Volumenangaben gemacht hat: 239 MW in H1.

Bei 402 Mio. Umsatz gäbe das einen ASP von 1,68; können also bei weitem nicht alles Module gewesen sein.

[Memphis77]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.659.398 von SLGramann am 28.07.09 12:32:18

Wie würde dieser Chart in Dollar ausschauen?

Grob geschätzte Durchschnitswerte:

____________Preis/W in €___Wechslekurs______Preis/W in $

1. Quartal____2.5_________1.3__________3.25

2. Quartal____2.2_________1.4__________3.08



Einige Varianten für das 3. Quartal:



3. Quartal____1.7_________1.3__________2.21

3. Quartal____1.7_________1.4__________2.38

3. Quartal____1.7_________1.5__________2.55 

3. Quartal____1.7_________1.6__________2.72

3. Quartal____1.8_________1.3__________2.34

3. Quartal____1.8_________1.4__________2.53

3. Quartal____1.8_________1.5__________2.70

3. Quartal____1.8_________1.6__________2.88 

3. Quartal____1.9_________1.3__________2.47

3. Quartal____1.9_________1.4__________2.66

3. Quartal____1.9_________1.5__________2.85

3. Quartal____1.9_________1.6__________3.04

Mein Fazit: So lange der Dollar schwach bleibt oder weiter fällt werden auch die Modulpreise ausgehend von China weiter fallen.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.659.398 von SLGramann am 28.07.09 12:32:18

Ich glaube, diese Zahlen sind stark nachlaufend.

Für deutsche Module gibt das Chart noch 2,65 an, während z.B. Aleo bereits im Q1 nur noch von ASP von 2,40 sprach...

Extrem hoch ist auch der dargestellte Spread.

[R-BgO]

* July 28, 2009, 12:04 PM ET

Solar Power: The Silver Lining to Plunging Silicon Prices


By Keith Johnson

More on the good news, bad news story from solar power’s terrible year.

Prices for polysilicon, the raw material used in photovoltaic solar cells, keep plunging thanks to abundant supply and weak demand. It’s not just spot prices that are falling, but renegotiated contract prices also, says New Energy Finance, London-based clean-energy analysts.

“The new contract price of silicon for delivery in 2009 is down some 50% on that contracted for a year ago and now close to the spot price of $67/kg, equivalent to $0.50 per watt,” wrote NEF in a note today. The old contract prices averaged $150 per kilogram, while spot prices had jumped to $300 per kilogram.

That may be bad news for the companies that process silicon—they’ve been squeezed by falling prices for their product since the credit crunch and a collapse in key solar markets. But it could be good news for the sector as a whole, notes NEF:

These prices suggest that leading manufacturers of crystalline silicon PV modules can afford to sell below $2/watt and still make a small profit. This is half the price of modules in 2008, making PV much more competitive with fossil fuel-generated electricity and much more attractive under subsidy regimes designed for 2008 prices.

Now, all the solar sector (like the rest of the clean energy universe) has to do is figure out how to unfreeze still-skittish credit markets.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.663.798 von R-BgO am 28.07.09 19:49:14

rechnen mit 7,5g/W

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.659.855 von Memphis77 am 28.07.09 13:31:35

Bei Trina wars in Q2 ausweislich der vorläufigen Zahlen von gestern so:

ASP liegt zwischen

$2,27 (148/65) und
$2,41 (152/63)

...tippe mal auf ca. $2,30; sind in Euro noch 1,62!

[R-BgO]

Jobs More Important Than Price per Watt to Key Policy Makers

By Bettina Weiss, Sr. Director, PV Group

A critical component in public policy advocacy efforts in support of solar power and PV manufacturing worldwide is the impact on employment. PV power has been demonstrated to have the most beneficial impact on job creation than energy source and this fact is a critical asset in lobbying efforts in support of effective solar policies. As legislators around the world become increasingly involved in solar policy, PV power’s impact on employment may become more important than grid parity or sophisticated energy demand/supply models. During this era of rising global unemployment, politicians love to tout their impact on jobs.

Work by many researchers has shown that solar energy is the most effective and efficient job creator among all energy alternatives. An estimated 10 jobs are created per MW during production and about 33 jobs per MW during the process of installation. Wholesaling of the systems and indirect supply (for example in the production process) each create 3-4 jobs per MW and research adds another 1-2 jobs per MW. By 2030, an estimated that 10 million full-time jobs would have been created by the development of solar power around the world. Over half of those would be in the installation and marketing of systems (EPIA)...
http://www.pvgroup.org/NewsArchive/ctr_031030

[R-BgO]

Ich mache mal eine provokante GROB-Prognose:

PV-Markt 2010

Gesamtgröße...........8.000MW 

davon..............................kumuliert

First Solar...........1.300MW

Yingli..................800MW......2.100MW

Suntech.................800MW......2.900MW

Sunpower................500MW......3.400MW

Solarworld..............500MW......3.900MW

SHARP...................500MW......4.400MW

Trina...................400MW......4.800MW

der ganze Rest........3.200MW......8.000MW

als "große" (>100MW) Zellhersteller, die Modulhersteller "im ganzen Rest" versorgen, sehe ich: Motech, JA Solar, Gintech, Q-Cells

[R-BgO]

For immediate release, 28 July 2009



Silicon and wafer index shows sharp falls in prices and
widespread renegotiation of solar sector contracts

The fourth issue of the New Energy Finance Silicon and Wafer Price Index shows that
many long-term silicon and wafer contracts negotiated in 2007 and 2008 have now been
cancelled or renegotiated. The new contract price of silicon for delivery in 2009 is down
some 50% on that contracted for a year ago and now close to the spot price of $67/kg,
equivalent to $0.50 per Watt.

This trend of renegotiation is important because it shows that silicon and wafer suppliers are
accepting that contracted prices have to be adjusted in the light of changed circumstances in
order to safeguard the financial health of their customers - the makers of solar cells and modules.

There were many silicon contracts signed in 2007 and 2008 with 2009 delivery prices much
higher than current spot prices, especially by China-based silicon manufacturers and other new
entrants. The weighted average silicon price for the contracts signed in 2008 for delivery in 2009
was $150/kg, at the time comparing favourably with a 2008 spot price that was consistently above
$300/kg.

The much lower spot price this year, caused by a combination of growing supply and a sudden
drop-off in demand, has led to these contracts being cancelled and renegotiated. Contracts
signed at lower prices have not come under such pressure, with those manufacturers preserving
good margins and customer loyalty. However, with manufacturing costs for incumbent
manufacturers (Wacker-Chemie, Hemlock, REC, Tokuyama and MEMC) estimated at around
$30-35/kg, it is still possible the spot price could fall lower.

In the wafer part of the value chain too, many contracts have been cancelled and others have
been renegotiated. The spot price for a multicrystalline silicon wafer was $3.44/piece in July
2009, equivalent to $0.93/W, but the median price of multicrystalline silicon wafers for delivery in
2009 under long-term contracts captured by New Energy Finance as of last issue was
$5.89/piece. Unsurprisingly, the wafer buyers in the Index have been renegotiating prices
downwards, or simply cancelling contracts: the median price in the sample of contracts still
technically valid was $5.25/piece. Further negotiations are expected.

These prices suggest that leading manufacturers of crystalline silicon PV modules can afford to
sell below $2/W and still make a small profit. This is half the price of modules in 2008, making PV
much more competitive with fossil fuel-generated electricity and much more attractive under
subsidy regimes designed for 2008 prices. Access to capital is now the major factor limiting
runaway growth of PV capacity in markets such as the US, the Czech Republic, Ontario and
France.

Michael Liebreich, chairman and CEO of New Energy Finance, said: “As expected, many solar
module makers have come to regret the prices at which they were signing silicon supply contracts
in 2007 and early 2008. It is reassuring that in many instances, those contracts are being
renegotiated or cancelled. The alternative would likely have been serious financial distress for
many of the firms buying silicon and wafers on long-term contracts.”

[SLGramann]

Ungalublich aber wahr, in den USA gibts seit dem 31.07. endlich wieder einen funktionierenden ITC:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/feds-now-accept-…

[Soulrider82]

Weiss nicht ob die Zahlen auf dieser Page was taugen, aber ich stell den Link einfach mal rein...


Better demand made vendors more price confidence.

Industry sources said that there is a better demand from the current traditional installation season in the US and in Euro. Most solar component makers have more and more orders now so as to have more confidence to raise solar component prices up. On the other hand, most solar vendors think that solar prices will be difficult to raise solar price sharply in the coming 2-3 months.

In the past one week, average solar module price was up 2.55% to US $2.01. Solar cell makers provide 156mm sq poly solar cells with higher efficiency to push price up 3.76% to US $1.38l. Average156mm sq poly wafer went up 0.63% to US $3.17. Average poly-silicon price was up 0.89% to the price of US$ 56.5/Kg.

http://pvinsights.com/index.php

PV Insights, a premier international solar PV research firm, helps leading solar PV companies and financial professionals making real time decisions on business strategy, component procurements and investments by insightful reports, advisory service, and efficient price reports. After 3Q08, the dynamics of Solar PV industry have been similar to commodity components but there is no efficient information for decision making. To achieve this goal, PV Insights teamed up a group of solar PV analysts with industry expertise, excellent contacts, and proved methodologies in information analyses, market forecasts, and consulting services.

[Slurry]

Seit letztem Jahr hat sich bez. Kosten etwas getan, ich mal mal einen Vorschlag für eine Aktualisierung und freue mich auf Eure Meinung:

SI-cost (SC)......................6g x 30$ = 18c
Wafer processing cost...(WPC)..............= 30c
Cell processing cost (CPC).................= 20c
Module processing cost (MPC)...............= 35c
Overhead cost (OC).........................= 10c
Total Module cost (TMC)....................=$1,13

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.692.717 von Soulrider82 am 01.08.09 15:52:26

Sehr interessante Seite!

Wie bist Du drauf gestoßen?

Scheint Taiwan-based zu sein; erklärt auch das teilweise holprige Englisch.

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.694.156 von R-BgO am 02.08.09 13:02:13

Durch ein Posting in einem englischen Forum, bin ich auf diese Seite gestossen! Und ja, PV Insights scheint in Taiwan angesiedelt zu sein...

Terms of Use:
Governing Law. This Agreement contains the final and entire agreement between us regarding your use of the Services and supersedes all previous and contemporaneous oral or written agreements regarding your use of the Services. This Agreement and the resolution of any dispute arising hereunder shall all be governed and construed in accordance with the laws of Taiwan, without regard to its conflicts of law principles. User consents to the jurisdiction of the courts of Taiwan.

Wenn man aber z.B den "spot price" von Poly anschaut, dann ist der schon sehr tief im Vergleich zu anderen Quellen. Digitimes hatte ja noch mitte Juli von ca. $72/kg gesprochen und in der interessanten GCL-Pdf-Präsentation, die du letzthin im GCL-Thread reingestellt hast, wurden auch Preise um die $70 erwähnt.

Aber die Seite eignet sich vielleicht noch ganz gut, um einen Preistrend feststellen zu können?! Auch gibt es scheinbar regelmässige Updates...und der aktuelle News Ticker, finde ich auch noch eine gute Sache.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.695.444 von Soulrider82 am 02.08.09 21:09:34

Ich denke, die Preise könnten realistisch sein. Die meisten anderen Angaben laufen zeitlich relativ weit nach.

[R-BgO]

02.08.2009 19:24
Phoenix Solar sieht erste Anzeichen für Ende des Preisrutsches

Das Photovoltaik-Unternehmen Phoenix Solar <PS4.ETR> sieht erste Anzeichen für ein Ende des Preisrutsches. "Wir hören, dass die Preise für Silizium und Wafer stabil sind, zum Teil sogar anziehen", sagte Unternehmenschef Andreas Hänel "Euro am Sonntag". "Wir wissen, dass die Kapazitätsauslastungen vieler Modulhersteller wieder recht gut sind. Und die Nachfrage steigt." Allerdings könne niemand sagen, ob nicht noch ein Preisrutsch komme, betonte Hänel.

Die Nachfrage habe im zweiten Quartal angezogen, weil die günstigen Module Solarstrom noch attraktiver machten. "Dieser Trend hat sich im Juli verstärkt", sagte Hänel. "Aber es lässt sich auch hier nicht vorhersagen, ob dieser Trend bis Jahresende intakt bleibt." Im kommenden Jahr erwartet der Unternehmenschef ein "kräftiges Wachstum, sofern sich die Preise stabilisieren."/he

[R-BgO]

By Renewable Energy World - Renewable Energy World

By Jennifer Kho

For the last two years, solar companies have been buzzing about how they would soon reach "grid parity," or the point at which renewable energy would be price-competitive with conventional electricity. In those years - during a silicon shortage that kept the supply of solar panels below demand -- manufacturers were working to grow capacity as fast as possible, and a number of companies, including Sharp Corp., SunPower Corp. and Showa Shell Sekiyu announced plans to build 1-gigawatt factories. But things have changed.

Now, the industry is in the midst of a solar-panel oversupply. A cap on the Spanish incentive program is expected to reduce its market to 500 megawatts this year after it grew to the largest in the world - at more than 2 gigawatts - last year. That, combined with a big slowdown in project financing, has reduced global demand to a forecasted 3.75 gigawatts this year even as the industry's production capacity reaches 11 gigawatts, said Paula Mints, a principal analyst at Navigant Consulting (NYSE: NCI).

And while there is some dispute about the exact size of the overcapacity (some industry experts suggesting that it might be overhyped) nonetheless, it's clear that prices for solar panels are rapidly declining, with some solar manufacturers reportedly selling at a loss. According to SolarBuzz, panel prices fell for the seventh month in a row in July, to $4.56 per watt in the United States and EUR4.44 (about $6.31) per watt in Europe. That compares with U.S. prices of $4.83 per watt and European prices of EUR4.70 (about $6.67) per watt a year ago.

Solar companies "are tightening their belts quite a bit and learning to live with less," said Ron Kenedi, head of the Sharp Solar Energy Solutions Group, at Intersolar North America earlier this month.

Manufacturers are under pressure to slash prices - and, if they want to stay in business, their costs - in many cases without the benefit of being able to further expand their capacity and take advantage of economies of scale. Many of them plan to expand capacity once the market picks up again; Mints and other analysts expect to see a turnaround in 2011. But in the meantime, a number of companies are taking innovative steps to try to cut costs now, and to make their products stand out above the crowd.

Craig Lund, vice president of business development at MIT-spinoff 1366 Technologies, a startup focused on improving the manufacturing of multicrystalline-silicon panels, said at the conference that he's seen increased industry interest in new technologies in the last nine months. "Companies are really thirsty for new technologies that can differentiate them," he said. "Nine months ago, all they wanted to talk about was scale and getting [production capacity out there]. Now it's 'How do I differentiate myself?' So the tide has really turned."

New Manufacturing Processes

One of the most obvious ways companies are trying to cut costs is by developing new materials, such as thin films. Instead of relying on crystalline silicon, thin-film companies are making panels that use cadmium-telluride (CdTe), amorphous-silicon (a-Si) or copper-indium-gallium-deselenide (CIGS) material, for example.

First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) has had the most prominent success so far, producing more than 1 gigawatt of cadmium-telluride panels and reaching an industry-low manufacturing cost of US $0.93 per watt in the first quarter. Other companies haven't yet caught up, and sinking silicon prices - which are helping crystalline-silicon-based technologies to cut costs - could make thin-film companies less competitive than they might have been during the silicon shortage. One of the main advantages of thin film is the fact that they use little or no silicon compared to crystalline-silicon panels, but that is less of a plus now that silicon prices are plummeting, especially since thin films are less efficient at converting sunlight into electricity.

To cut costs and increase efficiencies, thin-film companies are developing new ways to deposit their materials. SoloPower, which is making CIGS panels, uses electricity in a low-temperature process called electrodeposition. Mustafa Pinarbassi, vice president of technology development at SoloPower, said at Intersolar that the process could significantly cut costs and increase deposition speed, though he didn't disclose the company's cost per watt. At the same time, Applied Quantum Technology, which also is developing CIGS technology, is using a process called reactive sputtering that it also claims can reduce manufacturing costs.

Meanwhile, Signet Solar, a company that uses an a-Si solar-manufacturing line from Applied Materials (NSDQ: AMAT), has said it is already seeing manufacturing costs of less than $1.50 per watt. Applied Materials is working on a number of ways to boost the efficiency of the a-Si films produced by its machines. One possibility would create an alternative structure using the same machines by changing the sequence in which the panels are manufactured, said Charles Gay, president of Applied Solar at Applied Materials. The company also is working on techniques, including one using silane to improve the quality of hydrogen bonds in the films, which could keep the panels from degrading as much in light. As it is, 45.3 percent of cell failures are a result of corrosion from UV light or other sources, Gay said.

Crystalline Cells and Panels

Conventional crystalline-silicon panel makers aren't standing still, either. According to an Applied Materials' chart citing information from research firm Photon Consulting and Deutsche Bank, technology improvements, as well as moves to use less materials and more advanced automation, could drive average manufacturing costs down from US $2.04 per watt today to $1.47 per watt by 2011. Those numbers assumed a fixed cost of $55 per kilogram for silicon, which is far lower than the prices the industry had been seeing in the last few years and - in the downturn - still lower than the $60 to $80 per kilogram cited by Barron's, although some predict prices could fall further.

Ken MacWilliams, vice president of crystalline-silicon technology and new products for Applied Materials' Solar Business Group, said the comany is working on a series of improvements to reach those forecasts as soon as possible. (Applied is the world's largest provider of manufacturing equipment for crystalline-silicon solar.) One thing the company has done to help its customers reduce costs is develop a system of software and networked hardware that connects up different tools - including competitors' tools - in its customers' factories to maximize their efficiency, he said.

Applied is working to reduce the thickness of the silicon wafers that go into the panels. The company is developing a wafer saw that it believes could reduce wafers from 360 microns in 2008 to 240 microns in 2011, cutting silicon consumption more than 33 percent, MacWilliams said. It's not as easy as using a thinner wire to saw the wafers. Thinner wires require more tension to saw through wafers, and that usually ends up breaking the wires. Applied has come up with a system that uses two wires on two separate spools - overlaid on the wafers - to be able to cut the wafers thinly without breaking the wires, he said. [Editors note: for more on slicing wafers to reduce costs in solar cells, see this article.]

In addition, the company is working to improve the passivation layer, which is an anti-reflective coating that protects the panel from the elements and absorbs light, to make it more effective and easier - and cheaper - to make. It also is looking at giving panels all-back contacts, MacWilliams said. That involves moving all the electricity-conducting metal to the back of a panel, so that light moves through the panel - instead of being reflected off - and any light that isn't absorbed by the time it hits the back bounces back through the panel again. SunPower Corp. (NSDQ: SPWRA, SPWRB), for example, already has back contacts, which helped it achieve the highest efficiency in the industry.

Another potential improvement involves a Baccini line that would double print thinner lines of conductive pastes on solar panels, he said. The double printing of conductive lines on top of one another would mean that Applied would need only half the grid lines as usual, reducing the amount of shadowing caused by those lines and increasing the amount of electricity the panel could produce from the same amount of sunlight, he said. The silver grid lines also would be thinner, reducing the amount of expensive conductive material needed, MacWilliams said, adding that Applied could introduce this technology within a year.

Meanwhile 1366 Technologies, is developing technologies that it claims can boost multicrystalline silicon cells from 16 percent efficiency to 18 percent efficiency, thereby reducing their cost per watt. The startup, which raised $12.4 million last year, has developed technology that gives solar panels a rougher texture, which 1366 claims adds surface area, increases internal light refraction and boosts panel efficiency some 0.6 percent. Like Applied, 1366 also is developing a sawing technology to reduce the amount of silicon wasted in slicing ingots into wafers.

But 1366 is taking a different approach from Applied on metal contacts. Instead of moving the contacts to the back, the startup is developing a grooved busbar, the metal strips that conduct electricity on the panel, which would increase internal refraction, boost efficiency and eliminate the need for back contacts, according to the company's VP of business development, Craig Lund. The innovation also allows for 80 percent narrower busbars or fingers, reducing the amount of expensive silver needed on the panel, he added.

The Next Big Thing

The industry is looking at high- and low-tech ideas to reduce costs. Take nitrogen and hydrogen gases, for example. Starting at 150- and 200-MW factory sizes, manufacturers can save money by generating those and some other gases on-site instead of buying them externally, said Anish Tolia, head of market development for gas supplier Linde Electronics.

Rainer Gegenwart, CEO of Masdar PV, said he expects to see solar companies start to collaborate in order to purchase materials - including "glass, foils, gas, everything" - in bulk. Partnering with competitors may not seem intuitive at a time when competition for customers is heating up, but Gegenwart said concerted buying efforts could result in lower prices from suppliers. While he hasn't seen companies start to do this year, "it absolutely makes sense," he said, adding that he expects to see this happen by next year.

Companies also are taking extra steps to reassure their customers about their quality, dependability and - the latest big buzzword - "bankability." For example, Signet Solar in May began offering insurance for its panels in partnership with Munich Re and Marsh. Insurance-backed warranties guarantee the panels even if the solar-manufacturing company were to go out of business, and can help project developers get financing.

Many also are helping their customers lobby for solar-favorable policies and providing other services to help keep their customers loyal. For example, Sharp's strategy isn't to rely on having the lowest price, though it also is lowering prices, but also to trade in on its reputation - it's been in the solar business for 50 years and been in business for 100 years - as well as the services it provides for its customers. The company is "insured up the hilt," said Ron Kenedi.

Jenny Chase, lead solar analyst for London-based research firm New Energy Finance, suggests that customers will make decisions based on more than just price. She expects to see a range of prices depending on panel efficiencies, as well as manufacturers' reputations and the perceived risk of buying from them.

[Soulrider82]

"The Silicon Supply Chain" (Pdf-Präsentation von Hemlock Semiconductor)

http://www.semiconwest.org/cms/groups/public/documents/web_c…

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.706.522 von Soulrider82 am 04.08.09 13:16:30

Hast Du auch Ed Gunther abonniert...?

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.706.611 von R-BgO am 04.08.09 13:30:22

Ja, das Hemlock Pdf habe ich durch diesen Blog entdeckt!

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.707.524 von Soulrider82 am 04.08.09 15:17:17

Bei der Quelle gibt es noch mehr...:

z.B.
http://www.semiconwest.org/cms/groups/public/documents/web_c…

[Soulrider82]

Spot quotes for 6-inch poly-Si wafers rise to US$3.5-3.7
Thursday 6 August 2009

Spot market prices for solar-grade 6-inch poly-Si wafers have recently risen by 8.8-9.4% from US$3.2-3.4 per wafer to US$3.5-3.7, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Spot quotes for solar-grade 6-inch monocrystalline silicon wafers have also increased to US$4 per wafer, and wafers used to produce solar cells with high energy rates are priced at US$4.7, the sources pointed out.

http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/NewsSearch.asp?DocID=PD000…

[SLGramann]

Photon International 8/2009 hat eine Menge interessanter, teilweise auch amüsanter, Zahlen veröffentlicht.

Hier mal ein paar Kernaussagen:

Die Branche baut auf allen Stufen der Wertschöpfungskette - vom Silizium bis zum Installateur - offenbar viel größere Lager auf, als man erwarten konnte. Es sollen derzeit an die 5 GW über die gesamte supply chain verteilt "auf Lager" sein! Eine unglaubliche Zahl!

Wenn das einigermaßen stimmt, erklärt es vor allem, warum die Silizium-Preise nicht vollkommen zusammengebrochen sind. Das Zeug wird tatsächlich noch immer abgenommen (da wirken die take or pay-verträge wohl doch) zu irgendwas weiterverarbeitet - und dann eingelagert...

Weiterhin wurde die Produktionsprognose für Silizium für 2009 um 25.000 Tonnen auf jetzt 95.000 Tonnen zurückgenommen. Insbesondere im UMG-Bereich und bei den Neueinsteigern hat man die Erwartungen gekürzt (nachvollziehbar).

Bei der installierten Leistung erwartet man für 2009 jetzt noch 8,6 GW (bisher 11,7 GW). Die 8,6 GW kann ich mir übrigens sehr gut vorstellen. Die neuesten Horrorzahlen von iSuppli (3,9 GW) empfinde ich persönlich dagegen als zu schwarzgemalt.

Für 2010 spinnen sie sich dagegen wieder voll einen ab und glauben jetzt an 24 GW (vorher 27 GW). Da kann man nur noch den Kopf schütteln...

Interessant war dann noch, dass die durchschnittlichen factory-gate-c-Si-Modul-Preise für Anfang Juli mit ca. 2,20 Dollar / Watt angegeben werden. Während des Q2 dürften die Preise damit um ungefähr 15% gefallen sein. Ob der Preisverfall in Q3 wirklich gestoppt werden kann? Wenn das mit den 5 GW auf Lager stimmt, dann bin ich da sehr skeptisch. Wie lange will und kann man sich denn das aufgeblähte working capital in der Bilanz leisten? Irgendwann muss das verramschen losgehen!

[lieberlong]

Solar cell production to grow 56 pct in '09-report

LOS ANGELES, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Solar cell manufacturing capacity will grow 56 percent in 2009 despite weakened demand for renewable energy projects in the face of tight credit markets and a global economic recession, a report issued on Monday by research group DisplaySearch said.

The report predicts that cell manufacturing capacity will reach 17 gigawatts this year and will surpass 42 GW by 2013, growing at a rate of 49 percent per year.

Despite demand for photovoltaic panels shrinking 17 percent this year and an 'enormous over-supply' eroding prices, the solar industry will 'begin working through this excess capacity as demand recovers next year and takes off in 2011 and beyond,' said Charles Annis, vice president of manufacturing research for DisplaySearch and author of the report.

Expansion projects that were previously committed are driving the growth in capacity despite falling demand, the report said. From January 2008 to July 2009, about 11.4 GW of new solar cell capacity was installed worldwide.

The report named U.S.-based company First Solar Inc as the largest solar cell manufacturer with more than 1 GW of capacity. Germany's Q-Cells AG and China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd come in second.

By 2013, these companies and China's JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd, Taiwan's Motech Industries Inc, Norway's Renewable Energy Corp, U.S.-based SunPower Corp, China's Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd , and Japan's Showa Shell Sekiyu KK and Sharp Corp may be among the top 10 makers, with more than 16 GW, or 38 percent, of total capacity in 2013, the report said.

DisplaySearch is part of the NPD Group.


Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

[Soulrider82]

Continuous demand made solar wafer and polysilicon price up
Aug 12, 2009

Demand is really back in 3Q09, most solar makers have increased their utilization rate. Solar wafer makers also had better orders now and try to raise wafer price. However, solar cell and solar module makers can not push their price up at the same time. As a result, solar wafer makers increased their price moderately.

In the spot market, average solar module price kept stable at the price of US $2.01 per watt. Average solar cell price maintained at the price of US $1.38. Average156mm sq poly wafer successfully raised price to US $3.22. Average poly-silicon price was up US$ 0.5 to the price of US$ 57/Kg.

http://www.pvinsights.com/

[R-BgO]

Year Won't Be Installed In 2009

File image.
by Staff Writers
El Segundo CA (SPX) Aug 13, 2009
How bad is the solar panel glut? "The solar industry in 2009 has been undermined by collapse in demand due to the decision by Spain-which accounted for 50 percent of worldwide installations in 2008-to change its feed-in-tariff policies," said Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for photovoltaics at iSuppli.

+ So bad that nearly half of all panels made this year won't be sold in 2009.

+ So bad that the present massive oversupply of panels will persist until 2012.

+ So bad that iSuppli Corp. now is reducing its forecast for solar panel production out to the year 2013.

"This demand drop led to a massive buildup of inventory throughout the supply chain, from the raw material polysilicon, to Photovoltaic (PV) cells, to complete solar systems. Despite this, solar panel makers have continued to increase capacity and production, exacerbating the inventory buildup."

Total solar panel production in 2009 will grow by 14.3 percent to 7.5 Gigawatts (GW), up from 6.5GW in 2008. However, only 3.9 GW worth of installations will take place this year. That means that almost one out of every two panels produced in 2009 will not be installed but stored in inventory.

"This inventory glut will have a long-term impact on the solar business, with panels set to remain in a state of oversupply until 2012," Wicht said.

"After that year, fast-growing demand for solar installations will be able to absorb global panel production and inventory.

iSuppli's updated forecast now shows supplier production flattening for the years from 2011 through 2013 compared to the old forecast."

The attached figure presents iSuppli's previous and updated forecasts for solar panel production in terms of GW.

Still ramping?
Despite the global economic recession, most of the leading producers of solar panels-such as Suntech, Sharp and JA Solar-will continue to grow in concert with the overall PV industry, although they have no intention of slowing production of cells and panels.

"Even in the face of the downturn, many panel and cell producers have continued to ramp up their capacities as if a recession had never occurred," Wicht said. "Most companies are doing this in order to maintain their share in the market."

As a result, Suntech will push Q-Cells aside and become the No.-1 producer of crystalline cells in 2009, iSuppli predicts. Sharp, Yingli and JA Solar also will defend their Top-5 positions this year by not reducing their solar-cell production increases.

Those suppliers that have reduced or made adjustments to their production of cells and panels as a result of the softening demand have seen their short- and mid-term strategies falter. These suppliers include Q-Cells, SunPower and BP Solar.

Q-Cells, in particular, slowed down cell and panel expansion at its plant in Malaysia and has significantly reduced production targets in 2009. Likewise, SunPower has cut back its plans for expansion, while BP Solar has closed its panel production operations in Malaysia and Spain.

So, while some companies are hiking up production in order to maintain their positions in the market, others are forced to undertake short-term production cuts and delay or even cancel long-term expansion projects.

[R-BgO]

Schöne Zusammenfassung:

August 13, 2009, 11:22 am
Solar: More Trouble Looms Ahead, Barclays Warns
Posted by Eric Savitz

The troubles for the solar sector are far from over, Barclays Capital analyst Vishal Shah warned this morning.

Formerly bullish on the group as a whole, Shah today reduced his sector rating on solar to Neutral. Shah says the Q2 weakness in solar company results represents a “secular, not seasonal decline.”

Pricing pressure, he contends, is intensifying. Shah says checks find Q4 module ASPs from Chinese companies could drop to $1.80/watt, worse than the $2/watt he had previously been expecting. “Given the overly optimistic demand outlook of most Chinese solar players and expectations of continued production ramps, we see additional downside risk to module pricing exiting 2009,” he adds. “More importantly, we expect 2010 module ASPs to decline by 25%-30%.”

At the same time, Shah warns that the supply/demand outlook is deteriorating, rather than improving. “We expect U.S. demand to pick-up at a slower pace relative to prior expectations and see potential downside risk to inflated demand expectations in China,” he writes. “Moreover, our updated supply outlook suggests that industry over-supply could persist in [the 2010 second half] until production capacity reductions occur at a rapid pace across the industry.”

For the Chinese solar stocks, he warns, earnings risk is to the downside. “Market share gains and not profitability is the motive for most Chinese solar companies - given the inflated opex/interest cost structures, operating break-even levels of of companies continue to increase and as such we expect companies to continue to produce even as overall profitability levels deteriorate.” As for the U.S. solar players, he says the outlook is “mixed at best,” given a pick-up which he thinks will be slower than expected.

Finally, raising a potentially huge problem for the solar industry, he wonders whether the current German feed-in tariff level is sustainable, given significant volume growth in 2009 and the potential for further acceleration in 2010, and the impact of the trend on rate-payers in the difficult economic environment. He adds that significant module price declines and attractive project economics “may prompt policy makers to reconsider generous FIT levels.”

Shah’s comments follow earnings disappointments yesterday from JA Solar (JASO), ReneSola (SOL) and LDK Solar (LDK), The reports spurred a number of rating changes this morning:

* Shah cut JASO to Equal Weight from Overweight, trimming his price target to $4, from $5.
* On SOL, there was a split decision. Piper Jaffray analyst Jesse Pichel cut his rating to Underweight from Neutral, with a new price target of $4, down from $6.50. But Creidit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral, with a target price of $7.50, up from $3.80.

In today’s trading:

* JA Solar is down 20 cents, or 4.5%, to $4.27.
* LDK Solar is down $1.66, or 14.8%, to $9.55.
* ReneSola is up 22 cents, or 4.1%, to $5.58.
* SunPower (SPWRA) is off 38 cents, or 1.3%, to $28.38.
* Suntech (STP) is down 67 cents, or 3.7%, to $17.68.
* First Solar (FSLR) is up $2.15, or 1.5%, to $147.14.
* MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) is up 9 cents, or 0.5%, to $16.89.
* Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is off 22 cents, or 1.2%, to $18.12.
* Yingli Green Energy (YGE) is down $1.08, or 8%, to $12.38.

[R-BgO]

Delta expanding into solar power

$200m budgeted for US, EU acquisitions
Writer: NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG
Published: 15/08/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: Business

Delta Electronics (Thailand) Plc has been in talks to acquire US and European solar power equipment makers as it has earmarked $200 million to diversifying into electrical power over the next two years.

"If you want to do business in the US, you have to acquire a US company. And if you need more market share in Europe, you have to do the acquisitions," Delta president Henry Shieh said yesterday.

"We are discussing with companies in the US and Europe in terms of shares and prices to make sure we do it right. About $100 million could be spent before 2012 and we have the capacity to double the amount."Those companies, according to Mr Shieh, are $500-million businesses that are now having financial problems because of lower subsidies from governments in the face of the global recession.

Delta, the largest electronics firm on the Stock Exchange of Thailand by revenue and market capitalisation, says market conditions and its financial results have become more favourable for making new investments.

The market started to come back in June and July with some stocks depleting. Some urgent orders are placed this month, indicating that the demand is there, said Mr Shieh.

"At least we feel more comfortable now with our performance is getting better and moving toward the right trend," he noted. "Our cash on hand of over 8 billion baht also supports our investments."

Anusorn Muttaraid, Delta's executive director, said the talks with the US company were expected to be concluded this quarter while negotiations with European parties could finish in the final quarter.

"The deals are targeted to cost less than 3 billion baht. At least we will have these two deals done this year," Mr Anusorn said. "Through the acquisition, Delta would not only acquire the plants but also the market and technology from the US and Europe."

Delta yesterday reported a net profit of 301 million baht in the second quarter, down by half from 621 million in the same period of last year, as revenue fell 27% to 6 billion baht.

In the first six months, earnings dropped to 812 million baht from 1.42 billion a year earlier as revenue decreased 22% to 12.42 billion baht.

Mr Anusorn said the company forecast that 2009 revenue would be about $900 million, down from $1 billion made in 2008.

Mr Shieh said Delta aimed to double its revenue to $2 billion in 2013.

Its plants are currently running at 65% of the maximum capacity, compared with 85% the same period of last year, he added.

KGI Securities said Delta's earnings in the quarter to June were in line with the expectations, off 41% from the first quarter, while its gross margin edged down from 25.8% to 26.4%.

"Despite weak earnings in the second quarter, Delta's balance sheet remains robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.5 times. The company also has hefty cash on hand of 8.1 billion baht while short-term debt amounts to only 1.3 billion, without long-term debt," KGI said in a report.

DELTA shares closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 16.10 baht, unchanged, in trade worth 28 million baht.

[Slurry]

Aus Trinas Q2 Statement:

"Module Cost Reduction

In the second quarter of 2009, the Company's non-silicon manufacturing cost for its multicrystalline modules decreased approximately $0.06 to $0.73 per watt. The Company expects multicrystalline modules to comprise approximately 70% of its production in 2009. For the full year 2009, the Company reiterates expectations to reduce its manufacturing costs by between 15% to 20% through a combination of technology and manufacturing process improvements together with supply chain and logistics management initiatives currently under testing or development."

Mit zusätzlichen $0.10 für depreciation und abgeschätzten Siliziumkosten von $0.35 samma bei $1.18 Modulkosten. Nicht schlecht!

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.798.493 von Slurry am 17.08.09 22:54:26

Die Siliziumkosten sind doch noch wesentlich höher! Hier ist es ausführlicher dargelegt (Quelle: Trina Solar)...

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.798.830 von Soulrider82 am 18.08.09 01:22:39

Heißt im Umkehrschluß, daß der durchschnittliche SI-Preis für TSL in Q2 noch 138$/kg war!

Da ist noch Luft nach unten!

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.799.850 von R-BgO am 18.08.09 10:03:10

Auf diese Zahl bin ich auch etwa gekommen! Hätte eigentlich gedacht, dass man da schon tiefer ist, aber wie man sieht ist das nicht der Fall! Somit kann man weitere Fortschritte erwarten, was diese Position angeht!

Im "conference call" wurde davon gesprochen, dass man die Polykosten um weitere 25% (Q3 vs. Q2) reduzieren kann...und danach nochmal um ca. 20% (Q4 vs. Q3)! Aber auch bei "non-si cost" wird es weiterhin Fortschritte geben...wenn ich das richtig verstanden habe im CC, dann strebt man Gesamtproduktionskosten von $1/Watt bis Ende 2010 an!

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.799.850 von R-BgO am 18.08.09 10:03:10

Trina rechnet bei ihrer Margenprognose mit weiteren Preissenkungen von 10-15% in Q3 und 10-12% in Q4.

Ausgehend von 2,32 in Q2 wären das zwischen 1,74-1,88 im Q4.

Das müssen andere erstmal überleben.

Die bisherigen SI-Kosten liegen noch bei kanpp 140$/kg!!!

Sehr, sehr starke Zahlen.

Und absolut vorbildliche Transparenz. Die "supplementary documentation" ist spitze.

Man kann inzwischen fast sagen, wer gut ist, berichtet transparent und wer nicht gut ist, sagt nichts mehr....

[Soulrider82]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.800.670 von R-BgO am 18.08.09 11:54:10

Das mit den ASP's ist dann die Kehrseite der Medallie! Es geht im gleichen Stil weiter mit den Preissenkungen! Für Ende Jahr, hatte ich selbst mal ein ASP von ca. $2/Watt erwartet. Wie man im CC erfahren konnte, wird diese Marke vielleicht schon im nächsten Quartal durchbrochen! Somit wäre der Durchschnitt für 2009 bei $2.17 - $2.23/Watt!

Da wird natürlich ein mal mehr deutlich, dass der Preiszerfall das Endresultat massiv vehagelt! Obwohl man nach 201 MW im 2008, den Absatz in diesem Jahr wahrscheinlich auf 350 - 400 MW steigert...wird man den letztjährigen Gesamtumsatz von 831.9 Mio. unter Umständen nicht erreichen, oder knapp darüber liegen!
Mit einem angenommenen Absatz von 600 MW im 2010 wird es womöglich darauf hinauslaufen, dass man sich wohl auf einem ähnlichen Level wie 2008/2009 bewegen wird! Betreffend 2010 kommt es natürlich auf den weiteren Verlauf der ASP's an und der Expansion von TSL! Schätze, dass man nächstes Jahr auf 800 MW ausbauen wird...evt. auf Zell/Modul-Stufe sogar auf 1 GW!? Man hat ja mit GCL neben einem Poly- auch einen Wafervertrag abgeschlossen.

Aber Trina hat gute Aussichten, das sie aufgrund ihrer Kostenstruktur gut mithalten können...und wie von dir angesprochen, ist die Transparenz wirklich sensationell! Hatte das Pdf erst gar nicht gesehen, aber als die Dame im CC darauf hingewiesen hat...hab ich es dan auch entdeckt!

Tja, da kann man sich schon fragen...ob die Konkurrenz ausserhalb China/Asien da mithalten kann (First Solar/Dünnschicht-Player mal ausgenommen)!? Entweder man hat ein Premium Status wie z.B Solarworld, oder kann höhere Wirkungsgrade bieten (Sunpower)...aber für die meisten Anderen wird es wohl schon sehr schwierig! Schade das es von den westlichen Unternehmen kaum Zahlen gibt, zum Thema Kostenstruktur!

Aber bei Evergreen Solar wurden da im aktuellen Quartalsbericht konkrete Zahlen gennant...und schmeiss diese einfach mal in die Runde:

"We shipped 23.2 MW at an average price of $2.70 per watt compared to the 17.3 MW sold at $3.13 per watt during the first quarter. The momentum we are building keeps us on track to achieve our $2.00 per watt goal when Devens reaches its 40 MW of quarterly capacity. Additionally, we are now identifying cost improvement programs that we believe will gradually take us to about $1.50 per watt at full factory capacity in the next two years."

[R-BgO]

BIG one:

First Solar, Southern California Edison Sign Contracts for 550 MW of Photovoltaic Solar Electricity

* Press Release
* Source: Southern California Edison
* On Tuesday August 18, 2009, 9:00 am EDT

o
Buzz up! 0
o Print

*
Companies:
o Edison International
o First Solar, Inc.

ROSEMEAD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--First Solar, Inc. and Southern California Edison (SCE) today announced agreements to build two large-scale solar power projects in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in Southern California. The installations, which will be among the largest of their kind, will have a generation capacity of 550 megawatts of photovoltaic solar electricity, enough to provide power to approximately 170,000 homes. The agreements are subject to approval by the California Public Utilities Commission.

“Southern California Edison is always looking for innovative ways to deliver clean power from renewable sources. First Solar is an excellent partner in helping us achieve our goals,” said Stuart Hemphill, SCE senior vice president, Power Procurement. “This agreement is good for our customers, for the industry and for the environment.”

First Solar will engineer, procure and construct the two solar facilities, using its industry leading thin-film photovoltaic solar modules. The projects are the 250 megawatt Desert Sunlight project near Desert Center, Calif., and the 300 megawatt Stateline project in northeastern San Bernardino County. Pending network upgrades and receipt of applicable governmental permits, construction is scheduled to begin in 2012 for Desert Sunlight and 2013 for Stateline. Both projects are expected to be completed in 2015. Several hundred construction jobs are expected to be created at each site. When completed, the solar projects will produce 1.2 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy per year.

“Supplying solar power to Southern California Edison and its customers advances our mission of providing clean, affordable and sustainable solar electricity,” said John Carrington, First Solar executive vice president, Marketing and Business Development. “These projects will help California reach its renewable energy goals, and are powerful examples of large-scale photovoltaic solar generation becoming a reality in the United States.”

California currently has a goal of delivering 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2010 and is considering legislation to increase the goal to 33 percent by 2020. SCE is the nation’s leading purchaser of renewable energy and, in 2008, delivered 12.6 billion kilowatt-hours of energy to its customers from renewable resources – about 16 percent of its total energy portfolio. In addition, the utility delivered more than 65 percent of the solar energy produced in the United States for its customers in 2008.

[SLGramann]

In Japan kommt jetzt scheinbar endlich ein FIT. Das wurde ja schon vor Monaten diskutiert.
Japan ist natürlich potentiell ein gewaltiger Markt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=ahS1HHGZ…

[Soulrider82]

Auch Solarworld-CEO wirft Konkurrenz aus China Dumping vor
August 20, 2009

DÜSSELDORF (Dow Jones)--Frank Asbeck, der Vorstandsvorsitzende der Solarworld AG, teilt die Ansicht seines Kollegen Dieter Ammer von Conergy hinsichtlich der Dumpingvorwürfe gegen chinesische Konkurrenten. "Die Chinesen drücken ihre Produkte nach unserer Berechnung unter Selbstkosten in den Markt", sagte Asbeck am Donnerstag zu Dow Jones Newswires. "Das ist Dumping", fügte er hinzu.

Asbeck wies auf die Umstände hin, in denen die chinesischen Photovoltaikhersteller arbeiteten. "Sie haben keine Kosten für das Land, den Bau, für Strom und Wasserver- und -entsorgung", sagte er. Zudem müssten sie nicht so strenge Umweltauflagen beachten wie die deutschen Unternehmen. Diese Bedingungen sorgten für einen Preisvorteil von 0,10 EUR je Watt.

Dazu komme das in China betriebene Lohndumping. Ein Arbeiter bekomme dort zwischen 70 und 80 EUR im Monat. Dies führe zu einem weiteren Kostenvorteil von 0,10 EUR je Watt, allerdings nur bei Solarmodulen, da diese in China in Handarbeit verlötet würden, schätzte Asbeck. Die Produktion von Siliziumscheiben und Solarzellen sei wegen des gleichen Siliziumpreises und der hohen Automatisierung in China jedoch nicht billiger zu betreiben. "Die Meldungen, in China werde massiv günstiger produziert, stimmen nicht", sagte Asbeck.

Angesichts der von den chinesischen Herstellern geforderten Preise geht Asbeck davon aus, dass diese unter Einstandskosten absetzten. "Man muss sich ja nur mal die Bilanzen ansehen, die schreiben alle Verluste", sagte der Gründer des Bonner Solarunternehmens. "Wir vermuten sogar, dass die Chinesen Exportsubventionen erhalten", erklärte Asbeck. "In China wird die Industrie massiv gefördert", fasste er zusammen.

Der Gründer und Vorstandsvorsitzende von Solarworld wies darauf hin, dass in China außerdem die europäischen Hersteller beim Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien benachteiligt würden. "Eigentlich müsste man hierzulande eine Europa-Klausel beim geförderten Ausbau der Photovoltaik, also etwa im bundesdeutschen Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, einführen", forderte Asbeck. Damit könnten die europäischen Hersteller geschützt werden.

Am Vortag hatte Dieter Ammer, bei der Hamburger Conergy AG in gleicher Position wie Asbeck, Dumpingvorwürfe gegen die chinesische Konkurrenz ins Spiel gebracht. Er reagierte damit auf die jüngst verstärkt aufgekommene Diskussion, wie wettbewerbsfähig deutsche Hersteller im Vergleich mit chinesischen Konkurrenten sind.

Asbeck betonte, dass unabhängig vom Verhalten der chinesischen Wettbewerber in Europa wie überall ineffiziente Unternehmen existierten. Er rechnet mit einer Marktbereinigung. "Die Fußkranken werden aussortiert", prophezeite Asbeck.

http://web.consors.de/CatFront/JspNews.jsp?m_id=29412904

Ein weiterer Artikel über dieses Thema...

Solarbranche fordert noch mehr Subventionen
20. August 2009, 18:17 Uhr

Die deutsche Solarbranche fordert staatliche Eingriffe, um ihre tiefe Krise zu überwinden. Vor allem die in den europäischen Markt drängenden chinesischen Hersteller bereiten den deutschen Produzenten Kopfschmerzen. „Wir erleben eine Art von Dumping", sagte der Vorstandschef von Conergy, Dieter Ammer.

„Wir kennen ungefähr die Kostenstrukturen der chinesischen Produzenten“, sagte Ammer weiter. Für Rohstoffe wie Silizium oder die benötigten Maschinen gebe es einen Weltmarkt, auf dem alle die gleichen Preise zahlen müssten. „Alleine in den Personalkosten haben die Chinesen leichte Vorteile“, sagte Ammer. Maximal könne die einen Preisvorteil von wenigen Prozent ausmachen. Trotzdem würden die Chinesen ihre Waren in Europa weit unter den hier üblichen Kosten anbieten.

Der Vorstandschef des deutschen Branchenführers Solarworld, Frank Asbeck, führt das auf unfaire Wettbewerbsbedingungen zurück. Beispielsweise würden die chinesischen Hersteller immer öfter staatliche Banken mit nach Europa bringen. Diese würden mit Unterstützung aus Peking Darlehen mit null Prozent Zinsen anbieten, wenn chinesische Module gekauft werden. Zurückgezahlt werde erst, wenn die Vergütungen aus dem Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) sprudeln würden. „Wir brauchen eine Europaklausel im EEG, um unseren Markt zu schützen“, sagte Asbeck. Nur Module aus europäischer Produktion sollten gefördert werden.

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article4364658/Solarbranche-fo…

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.822.278 von Soulrider82 am 20.08.09 23:17:04

Baut die Mauer wieder auf.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan solar cell makers to raise quotes

Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 21 August 2009]

Taiwan-based polycrystalline silicon solar cell makers, in view of full or nearly full utilization of production capacities and increasing orders from Europe and Japan, are negotiating price hikes with clients, especially China-based fellow makers for outsourced production orders, according to industry sources. Some of them have successfully raised prices by 3-6%, the sources said.

[R-BgO]

Solarsubventionen sprengen den Rahmen

VON Claus Hecking, Hamburg, und Raniah Salloum, Berlin
24.08.2009

Staatliche Garantiepreise verursachen zusätzliche Kosten von bis zu 11 Mrd. Euro · Sonnenstromkapazität wächst schneller als erwartet

D ie Subventionen für Solarenergie sprengen alle Prognosen. Auf Deutschlands Stromverbraucher kommen unerwartete Mehrkosten von 7 bis 11 Mrd. Euro zu, ergaben Berechnungen der FTD und des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI). Insgesamt würden so laut RWI bis 2013 rund 77 Mrd.Euro an Fördergeldern für die Fotovoltaik zusammenkommen. Diese Solarschulden müssen über 20 Jahre abgetragen werden. Zurzeit erzeugen Sonnenkraftwerke nur 0,7 Prozent des deutschen Stroms.

Die ausufernden Kosten stellen die bisherige Praxis der Solarförderung infrage. Zurzeit garantiert das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes (EEG) Erzeugern von Sonnenstrom, dass sie diesen 20 Jahre lang unbegrenzt ins Netz einspeisen dürfen, zu Preisen von bis zu 43 Cent pro Kilowattstunde – mehr als sechsmal so viel, wie Strom an der Leipziger Energiebörse kostet. Die garantierte Einspeisevergütung half der deutschen Solarbranche in der Vergangenheit, sich eine führende Position zu erarbeiten. Mittlerweile ist ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit jedoch gefährdet.

Die deutschen Hersteller profitieren kaum noch vom Solarboom. Konkurrenten aus Asien und den USA gewinnen Marktanteile. So haben chinesische Fabriken laut einer Studie von Goldman Sachs Kostenvorteile von mindestens 30 Prozent gegenüber den Europäern. Zudem sinken die Margen rapide. Seit Ausbruch der Rezession sind die Verkaufspreise für Solarmodule um mehr als ein Drittel gesunken. Nutznießer sind die Betreiber großer Solarparks und Installateure, die ihre Module billiger einkaufen und dank der hohen Garantiepreise weiterhin teuer verkaufen können. Nach Angaben der Branchenzeitschrift „Photon“ kostet die Herstellung eines Solarmoduls durchschnittlich nur noch 1,30 Euro je Watt. Der Endabnehmer zahlt aber teils doppelt so viel.

Ursache der neuen Milliardenbelastungen ist ein Nachfrageboom. 2008 wurden auf deutschen Dächern und Äckern Fotovoltaikanlagen mit 1500 Megawatt Leistung installiert. 2009 dürften 2000 bis 3000 Megawatt hinzukommen. Der Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft hatte im Mai 2008, unmittelbar vor der Novelle des EEG, nur knapp 700 Megawatt Zuwachs pro Jahr vorhergesagt.

Nun regt sich Kritik: „Nach der Bundestagswahl muss die neue Regierung sofort das EEG ändern“, forderte Holger Krawinkel, Energieexperte des Bundesverbands der Verbraucherzentralen. „Mit einer 30-prozentigen Senkung der Vergütungen ist die Solarindustrie noch gut bedient.“

Wenn die Garantiepreise nicht deutlich gesenkt werden, drohen den Stromkonsumenten weitere Belastungen in Höhe von 19 Mrd. Euro. Denn laut Prognose des europäischen Solarverbands EPIA werden auch in den nächsten vier Jahren jeweils zwischen 2000 und 3000 Megawatt Kapazität dazukommen. Die hohen Garantiepreise hatte die Solarlobby noch mithilfe ihrer moderaten Wachstumsprognose durchgesetzt.

„Innerhalb der Parteien dürfte es Diskussionsbedarf geben, wenn der Zubau der Fotovoltaik und damit die Summe der Vergütungsverpflichtungen deutlich schneller wachsen als angenommen“, sagte „Photon“-Chefredakteurin Anne Kreutzmann. Schätzungen zufolge sind schon rund 500 000 deutsche Dächer mit Solarzellen bestückt .

„Nachdem die Preise um 30 Prozent und mehr gefallen sind, sollte auch die Vergütung entsprechend sinken“, sagte Manuel Frondel, Solarexperte des RWI. „Ansonsten besteht die große Gefahr, dass die deutschen Stromverbraucher 20 Jahre lang Milliarden für diese Technologie zahlen und die ganzen Arbeitsplätze nach Asien abwandern.“ Auch die energiepolitische Sprecherin der FDP-Bundestagsfraktion, Gudrun Kopp, forderte eine Senkung der Fördersätze: „Der jetzige Fall zeigt: Dauersubventionen machen zu satt und lähmen den Fortschritt.“ Bei einer Regierungsbeteiligung werde die FDP auf eine baldige Überprüfung der Garantiepreise drängen.

Vertreter der Großen Koalition hielten sich bedeckt. Der SPD-Umweltexperte Ulrich Kelber sagte, dem Gesetzgeber stehe es frei, die jährliche Reduzierung der Vergütungssätze zu beschleunigen. „Das Kind ist für 2008 und 2009 in den Brunnen gefallen, aber wir werden rückwirkend nichts ändern, um Planungssicherheit zu gewährleisten“, erklärte Joachim Pfeiffer, Energiekoordinator der CDU/CSU-Bundestagsfraktion. „Wenn die Dinge so aus dem Ruder laufen, müssen wir 2010 überprüfen, ob wir die Fördersätze anpassen.“ Die Solarexperten der UBS erwarten im Falle eines schwarz-gelben Wahlsiegs substanzielle Kürzungen der Garantiepreise.

[R-BgO]

Solar panel prices to slide into next year
Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:02pm EDT

By Laura Isensee - Analysis

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A steep fall in the price of solar panels has chipped away at manufacturers' profits this year, and relief is unlikely to come soon, as many in the industry believe pressure will intensify and push prices even lower into 2010 and perhaps even 2011.

Global demand for solar power soared last year until a pullback in solar incentives in Spain and a credit crisis that stifled financing for new projects led to a falloff in demand for solar panels and a global supply glut.

In turn, solar companies worldwide -- including heavyweights like China's Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd, U.S.-based First Solar Inc and Germany's Q-Cells AG -- have been forced to cut the price of their panels, hampering and in some cases erasing profits.

"I suspect it's not the bottom," said Jenny Chase of London-based industry research firm New Energy Finance. Chase said panel prices are still falling because it takes time for the decline to work its way through the supply chain, and costs of the industry's primary raw material, silicon, are still high despite having dropped sharply since last year.

Fears of a prolonged decline in panel prices have weighed heavily on solar stocks this month, and Jefferies & Co cited the continued slide on Friday when it cut its ratings on First Solar, SunPower Corp Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd and Energy Conversion Devices Inc. [nBNG540560]

After peaking at $4.20 a watt in 2008, prices for solar panels have dived as much as 50 percent to about $2.40 a watt for European and U.S. companies that make silicon-based panels and $2.00 a watt for Chinese suppliers, Chase said. Prices on lower-cost thin film panels are between $1.00 and $2.00 a watt.

The bottom-out price "could be as low as $1.50 for crystalline silicon, which would be a shockingly low price," Chase said.

Lower prices are good news for solar customers as the cost of the renewable energy source reaches toward that of power created from dirtier sources such as natural gas and coal. Still, the drastic pace of the tumble has sent many companies scrambling.

"It does you no good to get the prices down there and close to grid parity if you're losing money on every one," said Kevin Landis, chief investment officer of Silicon Valley-based Firsthand Funds and manager of the $5.4 million Firsthand Alternative Energy Fund.

The better reason for a decline in the price of solar power is when companies can cut manufacturing costs, Landis said, adding that as an investor, he favors those with a technological advantage. He pointed specifically to SunPower, whose solar cells are the most efficient in the industry at converting sunlight into electricity.

SHARE VS PROFITS

But with the market for solar panels still in a massive state of oversupply, Barclays Capital analyst Vishal Shah expects prices to fall to $1.40 a watt by the end of 2010 and $1.00 per watt in 2011. That would require companies to drive large volumes to make up for very low margins.

"There will be a trade off between market share and profitability," said Shah, who last week downgraded the sector to "neutral" from "positive."

Driving that move are two companies: U.S.-based First Solar, which makes its panels from cheaper cadmium telluride instead of more costly silicon, and China's Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd, which has cut prices aggressively.

Yingli Chief Executive Miao Liansheng earlier this week credited the company's pricing strategy as a "driving force" behind a rise in shipments and net revenue. At the same time, the company cut its profit margin forecast and predicted panel prices would fall further this year.

In addition, First Solar said last month that it would offer a rebate program in Germany to preserve its position in that market, a move that sent its shares into a tailspin.

That strategy -- expanding market share but weakening profit margins -- forces rivals to accept lower prices as well.

"This is a commodity product and a commodity industry," Shah said, adding: "The third company doesn't have a choice but to fight the market share battle."

Eventually the tumble in prices will moderate, depending on what happens with the industry's supply and demand and how governments' solar subsidy plans shake out, Shah said.

One way to put on the brakes would be for commercial financing to return to normal and reinvigorate demand, said J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Blansett.

"If we have a painful commercial lending market all through next year, then we're probably going to see some pretty poor pricing trends all through next year," Blansett said.

Bankruptcies, which would take some supply out of the market, would be another way to stop the fall in prices, said New Energy Finance's Chase.

Yet as companies across the industry -- including China's Trina Solar Ltd, Norway's Renewable Energy Corp, U.S.-based SunPower and others -- have raised money through stock offerings to keep their businesses growing, the end of the glut of solar panels and the trough in prices get pushed back, she said.

[enzofran]

4 Solarperlen jetzt günstig abstauben!
von: enzofran

Hallo!

Der Solarsektor hat es derzeit an der Börse nicht leicht, wird er doch aufgrund von Überkapazitäten reihenweise abgestuft. Was die "Investmentbanker" dabei vergessen ist aber, dass diese Überkapazitäten insbesondere in der Krise auftraten und inzwischen zum Teil schon abgebaut worden sind. Denn einerseits drosseln die Unternehmen, die diese Überkapazitäten ja in Form sinkender Preise wahrnehmen, die Produktion, andererseits wird durch die günstigeren Solarmodulpreise auch viel mehr "verbaut". Wer dies nicht glauben mag, schaue sich mal die brummenden Geschäfte bei "Projektierern" wie Payom Solar oder Phoenix Solar an!

Es ist also davon auszugehen, dass nicht nur die Wirtschaft allgemein, sondern die Solarwirtschaft im Besonderen die "Krise" längst hinter sich hat. Dennoch sind, auch wegen der zuletzt zahlreichen Abstufungen, viele Solarwerte derzeit günstig zu haben. Insofern sollte man sich die Aktien von:

Canadian Solar
First Solar
Q-Cells und last but not least
Solarworld

derzeit als mittel- bis langfristig denkender Investor genau ansehen.

Canadian Solar, First Solar und ganz besonders Solarworld kamen nämlich ausgezeichnet durch die Krise, Q-Cells ist derzeit eine von vielen zu Unrecht wenig beachtete "Turn-Around Story". So konnten der Aktie zuletzt selbst Abstufungen wie die durch Goldman Sachs nichts mehr anhaben und die Bodenbildung scheint im vollem Gange zu sein. Ferner hat Q-Cells im Rahmen seines Restrukturierungsplans angekündigt, ca. 500 Mitarbeiter zu entlassen und will in das derzeit, wie eben bereits angesprochen ja boomende, Projektgeschäft einsteigen. Sprich: Q-Cells nutzt die auf "Halde" liegenden und selbst produzierten Solarmodule, um einen Solarpark aufzubauen und so vom Solarzellenproduzenten zum Solarstromproduzenten zu werden. Und da die Einspeisevergütungen nach dem EEG feststehen, sollte dies dem Unternehmen mittelfristig wieder bessere Zeiten bescheren.

Daher sollte man m.E. die gefallenen Kurse von Canadian Solar, First Solar, Q-Cells und Solarworld nutzen, um sich diese Aktie auf mittlere Sicht ins Depot zu legen. Ihr Depot sollte es Ihnen danken...

Mehr Informationen zu Canadian Solar gibt es auch hier: http://www.sharewise.com/aktien/CA1366351098-canadian-solar/…, mehr Informationen zu First Solar auch hier: http://www.sharewise.com/aktien/US3364331070-first-solar/ana…, mehr Informationen zu Q-Cells auch hier: http://www.sharewise.com/aktien/DE0005558662-q-cells-se/anal… und mehr Informationen zu Solarworld auch hier: http://www.sharewise.com/aktien/DE0005108401-solarworld/anal…!

LG Enzo

[R-BgO]

Analyst: German solar subsidies not sustainable
Barclays Capital analyst says generous German solar subsidies not sustainable

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) -- A Barclays Capital analyst said Tuesday that Germany's residential rooftop subsidies could be cut by 25 percent because of escalating costs.


Vishal Shah said it's likely the country will revise its generous subsidy program, especially given that German companies are cutting jobs as Chinese companies add capacity and jobs.

Shah said the value of the German solar subsidy cost burden will likely increase from 6 billion euros in 2006 to 11.3 billion euros in 2010, while the value of the German wind subsidy cost burden could decrease from 3 billion euros to 2 billion euros over the same period.

"Bottom line: German solar subsidy costs are escalating and the current trend is not sustainable," Shah wrote in a client note.

Shah said Barclays' analysis of California Solar Initiative data suggests that the industry would have to have significantly lower industry pricing to maintain the current growth rate in California.

"We maintain our near-term cautious stance on solar stocks as we believe despite the recent sell-off, expectations are high and potential for downside risk to shipments/margin guidance exists for several stocks," he wrote.

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.835.381 von R-BgO am 24.08.09 07:52:29

Dieser Bericht wurde ja auch schon in Threads zu einzelnen Aktien eingestellt. Hier macht es sicher mehr Sinn, den zu diskutieren.

Er ist natürlich überzogen kritisch und leider sehr einseitig.

Ein wichtiger Aspekt, der für mich völlig aussen vor bleibt, ist die generelle Degression. Und bei dem Wert, den die hat, denke ich, dass es schon relativ anspruchsvoll ist, da technologisch auch hinterher zu kommen, um die Anlagen entsprechend billiger zu machen. Jetzt gibt es vielleicht ein oder zwei Jahre, wo die Vergütung (zu) hoch erscheint. Aber im Moment gibt es auch Sondereffekte, wie zunächst die Zurückhaltung von Käufern, daraufhin teilweise Dumpingpreise (wohl u.a. auch von chinesischen Modulherstellern), etc.

Dann wird ausser Acht gelassen, dass ja die zusätzliche Vergütungsabsenkung gibt, wenn (zu) viel Leistung zugebaut wird.

Die positiven Effekte für die Wirtschaft werden nicht erwähnt (Arbeitsplätze nicht nur bei den Zell- und Modulherstellern, sondern auch bei Planern und Installateuren, Zulieferern von Montagematerial, etc.). Die 5 Mrd. Subvention in diesem Jahr für die Autoindustrie werden überall gut geheissen, aber wegen Solarförderung wird jetzt grosses Geschrei angefangen.

Dann unscharfe Äusserungen:
Die Subventionen für Solarenergie sprengen alle Prognosen. Auf Deutschlands Stromverbraucher kommen unerwartete Mehrkosten von 7 bis 11 Mrd. Euro zu, ergaben Berechnungen der FTD und des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI). Insgesamt würden so laut RWI bis 2013 rund 77 Mrd.Euro an Fördergeldern für die Fotovoltaik zusammenkommen. Diese Solarschulden müssen über 20 Jahre abgetragen werden. Zurzeit erzeugen Sonnenkraftwerke nur 0,7 Prozent des deutschen Stroms.

1. Die Mindestpreise sind keine Subventionen. Braucht hier nicht weiter diskutiert zu werden, macht sich natürlich in der Öffentlichkeit gut so eine Wortwahl.
2. 7 bis 11 Mrd. Euro - pro Jahr? Oder insgesamt über 20 Jahre?
3. bis 2013 rund 77 Mrd. Euro an Fördergeldern - ab heute gerechnet oder inklusive Vergütungen von Anlagen, die schon bis einschliesslich 2008 gebaut wurden?
4. "Solarschulden" über 20 Jahre abzutragen - wie jetzt? sind diese 77 Mrd. irgend etwas abdiskontiertes, was die Vergütung über die 20 Betriebsjahre darstellt? Die Vergütung wird ja schliesslich jährlich gezahlt.

Also mal rechnen: 77 Mrd. Euro bei 43 Cent/kWh wären 16,3 Mrd. kWh, da Freilandanlagen weniger Geld bekommen wird die Strommenge höher sein, sagen wir mal 18 Mrd. kWh.
Bei grob 1.000 kWh/kW peak würde das also der Erzeugung von 18.000 MW PV in einem Jahr entsprechen... oder 900 MW über 20 Jahre? Passt alles nicht so richtig.

Aber es sind auf jeden Fall schön viele grosse Zahlen genannt, über die sich Otto-Normalverbraucher schon aufregen kann

Dann noch dieses:
bis zu 43 Cent pro Kilowattstunde – mehr als sechsmal so viel, wie Strom an der Leipziger Energiebörse kostet
Und durch die Einspeisung aus PV wird der Strom an der Börse teilweise (mittags, vor allem im Sommer) kostenlos oder sogar zu negativen Preisen gehandelt. Der Durchschnittspreis an der EEX sinkt, es sieht so aus, als wäre die PV-Vergütung noch viel mehr zu hoch. Aber da beisst sich die Katze in den Schwanz.


Ach ja, zur Erinnerung: Die ganze Diskussion ist sowieso kurzsichtig.
Vor ein paar Jahren war Windenergie der Buh-Mann und es wurde dort darüber diskutiert, dass die Vergütung zu hoch sei, etc. pp.
Im letzten Jahr gab es eine satte Erhöhung für Windstrom (+10% bei den Onshore-Tarifen, noch etwas mehr bei der Offshore-Vergütung), ohne dass sich irgendwer öffentlich aufgeregt hätte.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.840.793 von R-BgO am 24.08.09 19:32:44

!


Wer in den letzten zwei, drei Wochen aufmerksam die Tageszeitungen liest, der merkt, dass einer EEG-Novelle vorgearbeitet wird.

Ein Beispiel von heute oder gestern, Zitat:

"Nach der Bundestagswahl muss die neue Regierung sofort das EEG ändern", forderte Holger Krawinkel, Energieexperte des Bundesverbands der Verbraucherzentralen. "Mit einer 30-prozentigen Senkung der Vergütungen ist die Solarindustrie noch gut bedient."

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/handel_dienstleister/:Energiew…

Es gibt derzeit ein wahres Trommelfeuer solcher Aussagen.

Interessant ist dabei übrigens, dass Krawinkel bei der EEG-Novelle 2008 noch eine differenzierte, im Grundsatz aber PV-freundliche Haltung eingenommen hatte. Er ist dafür von den CDU-Hardlinern um Pfeifer und KOnsorten hart angegangen worden, weil er die Interessen der Verbraucher verraten würde...

Wenn schwarz/gelb kommt, dann wird die Einspeisevergütung in Deutschland massiv gekürzt werden (30% mindestens) + Deckel imho.

schwarz/rot geht wahrscheinlich ohne Deckel ab, aber Einspeisevergütung wird gesenkt werden.

PS: Eine deutliche Kürzung der Einspeisevergütung ist sachlich angezeigt. Einen Deckel für Freifläche würde ich begrßen. Deckel für Aufdach wäre indes ein Verbrechen.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.841.104 von SLGramann am 24.08.09 20:13:59

Hier wird weiter getrommelt:

Die Solarsubventionen müssen gesenkt werden. Die aktuellen Fördersätze belasten nicht nur die Stromverbraucher, sie behindern auch den technologischen Durchbruch.

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/handel_dienstleister/:Kommenta…


oder hier:

"Die deutschen Solarzellenhersteller haben durch die hohe staatliche Förderung von Solarstrom lange gutes Geld verdient", sagte Manz. Vielleicht hätte man die Förderung nach dem Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) schon eher zurücknehmen müssen. "Die Chinesen haben gesehen, dass die Deutschen mit Ebit-Margen von 30 bis 40 Prozent ordentlich verdienen, und sind daher auch ins Solarzellengeschäft eingestiegen", sagte Manz.

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:FTD-Interview-Solar…


Das geht, wie gesagt, schon seit mindestens zwei Wochen so.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.842.549 von SLGramann am 25.08.09 07:08:13

aus der zweiten Quelle:

"...leidet die Branche darunter, dass chinesische Hersteller wie Suntech, Yingli oder Trina Solar ihre Produkte hierzulande deutlich günstiger verkaufen - auch, weil China die Branche mit Milliardensubventionen unterstützt"

Den Spruch lese ich fast in jedem Artikel, weiß aber nicht, was damit konkret gemeint sein könnte.

Direkte Subventionen? - Sind mir nicht bekannt
"Golden Sun" o.ä.? - Das ist doch genau das Gleiche wie unser EEG
billige Kredite? - Da würde ich das angegebene Volumen sehr bezweifeln

=> Fazit: glaube, daß das ein Dumpfbackenspruch ist, bei dem mir keiner sagen kann, was er eigentlich damit meint. Polemisch und intellektuell unsauber.

[R-BgO]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/business/energy-environmen…

[cmeise]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.842.549 von SLGramann am 25.08.09 07:08:13

Das geht, wie gesagt, schon seit mindestens zwei Wochen so.

Der Spiegel singt dieses Lied schon seit sehr langer Zeit. Politik via Medien.

[R-BgO]

Smaller China makers to add 1GWp solar cell capacity in 2H09, say sources


Latest news
Staff reporter, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 25 August 2009]

Small- and medium-sized makers of crystalline silicon solar cells in China are aggressively setting up new production lines, adding a total of 1GWp to their capacities in the second half of 2009, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The sources' estimation is based on the equipment orders the China makers have placed.

About 10-20 such small- and medium-sized makers are either expanding their capacities or setting up their very first production lines, the sources said.

In comparison, six Taiwan-based fellow makers plan to expand their annual production capacities by a total of 850MWp in 2009: DelSolar with 240MWp; Motech Industries, Neo Solar Power and Gintech Energy each with 150MWp; E-Ton Solar Tech with 100MWp; and Solartech Energy with 60MWp, the sources indicated

[R-BgO]

Ban on scrap polysilicon to boost China solar sector
Thu Aug 27, 2009 5:43am EDT

By Leonora Walet, Asia Green Investment Correspondent

HONG KONG (Reuters) - A Chinese ban on imports of a waste material used for solar wafers may be bad news for foreign competitors but it is a big boost to China's solar sector.

Scrap polysilicon, which can be reused to make solar wafers, is low-grade silicon that fails to meet the grade for chips found in most electronics.

Beginning this month, China stopped accepting scrap polysilicon to comply with environmental regulations.

The ban threatens the income of Chinese scrap polysilicon traders and limits the market for companies that sell to them, such as top contract chipmaker TSMC. It is particularly harsh for small and new domestic solar players who rely on the cheap material to make wafers and panels.

For China's polysilicon companies, including GCL-Poly Energy Holdings and LDK Solar, the ban is an opportunity to expand business. For foreign rivals South Korean OCI Co Ltd, MEMC Electronic Materials Inc or Japan's Tokuyama Corp the ban is a potential threat.

China produces over 60 percent of the world's solar panels, and is among the heaviest users of pure polysilicon and the scrap variety. Scrap polysilicon accounts for up to 30 percent of silicon fed into some of the solar wafers and panels in China.

"In a way, the ruling was designed to protect (China's) very young polysilicon industry," said KK Chan, chief executive of private equity firm Nature Elements Capital. "The sector needs all the help it can get given a supply glut of the material."

The ban comes at a time when Chinese polysilicon companies are ramping up production, despite an oversupply of the key solar component.

GCL-Poly, which acquired $3.4 billion worth of solar assets in June, is on track to produce about 3,000 tons of polysilicon by year end. LDK Solar aims to produce 5,000 tons by 2010.

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co, ReneSola and Tongwei Co should benefit.

After the credit crunch dried up funding for solar projects, the sector was hit by a massive oversupply of polysilicon. Prices fell to $69 per kilogram from its peak of $400 in 2008.

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR

China's Environmental Protection Ministry said it imposed the ban because the heavy chemicals that come in contact with scrap polysilicon when reused to make solar wafers and panels produce waste that could harm the environment.

The ministry said in a notice posted on its website last month that the regulation was imposed in line with China's solid waste pollution laws.

A ministry spokesman declined to comment.

"This is positive for China's polysilicon sector, and the environment," said GCL-Poly president Hunter Jiang.

The new rule is slowly having a positive impact for local makers of the solar component. Spot prices of polysilicon in China rose to $72 per kg in August from $67 in July weeks after the rule was enforced, said New Energy Finance analyst Julia Wu.

"The segment most likely affected by the policy are local panel and wafer makers, especially the smaller ones," Wu said.

Established Chinese solar wafer companies are least affected.

"It should not have an impact, given there is sufficient supply of polysilicon in the market," said Renesola chief financial officer Charles Bai.

[R-BgO]

Eine schöne Übersicht zum italienischen Markt gibt es in der Präsentation hinter diesem Link auf Seite 8:

http://www.ergycapital.com/gec_it/ir/documentifinanziari/200…

[Jacob666]

Lesenswert: What could make solar hot again?

Last week, I was very fortunate enough to be able to get into a conversation with Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network, based in New Tripoli, USA. It all started with a column, which he writes regularly in “The Street.” One of the recent colums of Dr. Castellano touched upon –- What could make solar hot again?

This first part will touch upon issues such as six reasons for cloudy solar skies and how to rectify the current oversupply situation in solar cell manufacturing, status of a-Si solar cell makers, crystalline vs. thin film capacity, and impact of prices.

Mehr hier:

http://pcsolarpv.blogspot.com/2009/08/dr-robert-castellano-o…

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.871.296 von R-BgO am 28.08.09 11:17:04

Wieder mal ein interessanter Artikel.
Ich finde es auch immer wieder bemerkenswert, wie die Rückkehr zur Normalität bei den Silizium-Preisen als scheinbare Katastrophe dargestellt wird...
sector was hit by a massive oversupply of polysilicon. Prices fell to $69 per kilogram from its peak of $400 in 2008.

Da wird ein sehr kurzfristiger Momentanwert (der Peak mit den 400 USD/kg dauerte ja nicht lange, ein paar Tage oder so) herangezogen, und so getan, als ob das die Normalität gewesen wäre... trotz der Anmerkung dass es der Spitzenwert war... es bleibt ja eher die Zahl hängen als diese Anmerkung.

[Jacob666]

2 gute videos über Solaraktien generel

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-first-solar-faces-a-tough…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.businessinsider.com/why-first-solar-faces-a-tough…

[Jacob666]

Japan will Solar aus dem All. 1 GW Projekt, 21 Milliarden Dollar

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJ529lsd…

[R-BgO]

Balance Sheet Wars: U.S. Solar Companies vs. Chinese Government 13 comments
by: Financial Hippie August 31, 2009 |

We all know the foot race that is going on in the solar industry - companies are trying to achieve the lowest per megawatt cost for an installed system. Until the next leapfrogging technology comes along, the most important factor to drive down cost is scale*. Here is where the US solar companies will have serious problems competing against the Chinese solar companies because the US solar companies lack cheap, indiscriminate access to capital like their Chinese cohorts.

Let's take First Solar (FSLR) for example. FSLR is funded by private money. Even though the US government is offering tax incentives for installing solar projects, they are not however involved in the funding of the company in any way. Why would they? FSLR has one plant in the US, the rest of the plants are mostly in "low cost locations" - ie. Malaysia. Have you ever heard of the "United Solar Workers"? I would guess a few hundred out of the 3,500 FSLR employees are Americans. My point is... if they closed shop tomorrow, there will be plenty of companies to fill the supply void. I wonder if the Malaysian government has the capacity or the desire to step up and lend.

The Chinese solar manufacturers are a different story. Remember, the number one goal of the Chinese government is to maintain social stability. Suntech Power (STP) employs close to 10k employees by itself, and these are "high quality" jobs that are looked upon favorably by the Chinese Government. If I include all of STP's peers in China, their upstream suppliers such as LDK Solar (LDK) and the downstream system installers, I would guess the Chinese solar industry employs probably a few hundred thousand people throughout the value chain.

Now let's look at the banking relationships. Many of these loans are unsecured and covenant lite and represent roughly on average 25% of total capital. Top 3 Chinese solar related company by market capitalization and their respective government backers are:

* Suntech Power (STP): China Construction Bank, Bank of Communication.
* Yingli Green Energy (YGE): Export-Import Bank of China, China Development Bank
* LDK Solar (LDK): China Construction Bank, China Development Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Export-Import Bank of China. (wow, so many backers, this company really needs help)

I'm not going to bore you with the detailed capital expenditures budget and liquidity position for each US and Chinese solar company. But in times like these, where both US and Chinese solar companies are using their own money to set up an off-balance sheet entity to buy their own products to show "earnings" (A recent Barron's article alluded to Enron, but I think it's more like Boston Chicken), who do you think is going to win that battle? Especially when the Chinese government can, just like recently, press "the lend button" indiscriminately with little regards to the creditworthiness or the investment merit of these projects?

If scale is the most important deciding factor of cost reduction in the long run... until a new breakthrough comes along, how are US solar companies supposed to compete with their Chinese counterparts when they don't have access to cheap capital? I believe they must come up with a breakthrough in technology. I'm confident the US will be at the forefront of that leapfrogging breakthrough, but I'm not sure if the current publicly traded US names will be the companies to provide it.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.913.764 von R-BgO am 03.09.09 19:29:09

Die US-Antwort ist:

NanoSolar

100 mal billiger

100 mal ergiebiger

macht Faktor 10000 !!!

und vor allem, man braucht nur ein paar Millionen $ und rollt den Markt ganz neu auf.

so, oder ähnlich, könnte es sein.
der 9. September wird kommen.

[R-BgO]

Dies bezieht sich zwar nicht exklusiv auf Solar, aber ist trotzdem interessant:


Money Supply: The Myth of Hyperinflation 104 comments
by: Mark Sunshine September 03, 2009

Conventional wisdom is that the Fed’s printing presses are running overtime and the economy is awash with liquidity. Earlier this week the National Association for Business Economics reported that almost half the economists they surveyed believed that Federal Reserve Policy is inflationary. Too bad the NABE-surveyed economists and conventional wisdom are wrong.

Economists, pundits and journalists who climb the soap box to lecture Bernanke & Company about the evils of printing too much money need to take a second look at Federal Reserve policy.

If the Fed critics were correct, then overly aggressive monetary policy would be increasing the amount of money supply and hyper-inflation would be right around the corner. But, inflation is in check and if the Fed keeps on its current monetary trajectory high inflation isn’t in the cards for the U.S.

As it turns out, every week the Federal Reserve publishes statistics on money supply and since December 15, 2008, money supply has increased only marginally. M1 and M2 are up by about 4% and 2.5%, respectively. Such small increases hardly signal an out of control Federal Reserve led by “helicopter Ben” dropping money on the economy.

Fed watchers are correct, however, since the Lehman collapse the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has more than doubled. However, this growth of Fed size isn’t a warning of impending monetary or economic Armageddon.

While in the last year the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has grown from a little less than $1 trillion to around $2 trillion, what the Fed detractors neglect to mention is that the Federal Reserve didn’t print money to pay for the purchase of its new assets but rather sucked money out of the banking system that was being hoarded by banks, corporations and individuals. As a result, there was only a tiny net increase in money supply from Federal Reserve intervention. And, with only a small increase in money supply, inflation fears are being blown out of proportion.

Instead of printing “new money” and increasing money supply, Bernanke got banks to deposit their “old money” with the Federal Reserve, which meant that money supply didn’t increase. The Federal Reserve used that old money on deposit to purchase its new assets and grow its balance sheet.

Bernanke encouraged banks to deposit their excess funds at the Federal Reserve by persuading Congress to pass a law that allows the Federal Reserve to pay interest on cash deposits at the Federal Reserve. Prior to the change in law, the Federal Reserve couldn’t pay interest on money deposited, and as a result banks didn’t leave their excess funds at the Federal Reserve Bank. This very technical change in Federal Reserve authority provided Bernanke the magic wand to pull the banking system out of its death spiral without sparking hyper-inflation or running the printing presses overtime. Excess reserves on deposit at the Fed (which are essentially deposits of excess cash by banks at the various Federal Reserve banks around the country) total approximately $800 million and by sucking up excess reserves the Federal Reserve financed about 80% of its policy initiatives.

By recycling existing excess cash, the Federal Reserve stopped the negative effects of cash hoarding and pulled the U.S. out of a full scale depression. Bank cash hoarding at the end of 2008 depressed the velocity of money (i.e., the number of times it turns over each year) which almost caused an economic calamity for the U.S.

In a simple closed economy, annual GDP must equal (a) the amount of money multiplied by (b) the number of times money turns over in a year. If the velocity of money slows down, i.e., the number of times it turns over goes down, then GDP must fall. When the economy was in big trouble, in late 2008, banks, consumers and businesses were hoarding cash, which meant money wasn’t turning over. As a result, velocity dropped like a stone and GDP began to crash.

Bernanke and his staff were brilliant when they figured out how to stabilize GDP by forcing the velocity of money to stabilize and start to rise. Since Bernanke & Co. couldn’t rely upon the banks to recycle excess cash, they used their new authority to vacuum up the hoarded money and had the Federal Reserve Bank assume the role of private banks as an intermediary for money.

Prior to the beginning of 2009, the only successful policy that stabilized velocity of money and stopped panic hoarding was large-scale deficit spending by the central government which ultimately results in wealth redistribution and other social problems. Bernanke didn’t accept the standard prescription of aggressive fiscal intervention and instead invented as new paradigm of monetary policy.

As Bernanke’s policies started to work and panic hoarding lessened, the Federal Reserve began quietly reversing course and pulled back from some of its most aggressive measures. Pundits who question whether or not the Fed has the courage to reverse course and pull out monetary stimulus as the economy recovers need to look at actual data. They will see that there is no shortage of courage at the Fed.

Quietly and without fanfare, the Fed has gotten out of the business of being the lender of last resort for most of the securities market and broker dealers. As of the date of the last Fed report, the Fed had essentially $0 outstanding in its primary dealer, securities repurchase and commercial paper purchase facilities. And, the overall size of the Fed’s balance sheet was down between $100 million and $200 million from its peak level. Even the amount of credit that the Fed is providing to AIG is lower than it was at the height of the crisis. Plus, last week Fed governors started discussing whether or not all of the open market purchases of mortgage that have been authorized will in fact take place.

Every two weeks the Federal Reserve publishes a report that details the composition of its assets and liabilities. It should be required reading for pundits, economists and journalists before they talk or write anything about the Federal Reserve, Bernanke or his staff.

While I don’t agree with everything that Bernanke has done (particularly in the area of regulation), Bernanke and his staff are perhaps the most skilled monetary economists ever.

[R-BgO]

und so langsam wird's groß (auch wenn es sich so anfühlt, daß wenn erstmal alle ins selbe Horn stoßen, die nächste Wende nicht mehr weit ist):

Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive, says The Information Network

Michael McManus, DIGITIMES, Taipei [Friday 4 September 2009]

The solar industry is at a critical stage and 50% of existing solar manufacturers may not survive 2010, according to The Information Network.

The market research firm recently noted massive inventory buildup and huge overcapacity were having a serious impact on the solar panel industry and manufacturers, and Dr. Robert Castellano, president of The Information Network has now pointed out that inventory is averaging 122 days in 2009 versus 71 days in 2008. Capacity utilization dropped to 27.9% in 2009 from 48.0% in 2008.

A key reason is increased supply from China, which added an additional 1GW of capacity. The price per watt has now dropped to US$1.80 for polysilicon-based products, which is lower than the US$1.85 level The Information Network previously thought the industry would see at the end of 2009. By way of comparison, the average selling price in the third quarter of 2008 was US$4.05 per watt.

The Information Network doesn't expect other industry players to back down from increased competition from China. Other makers are expected to increase their capacities despite the low utilization rates in order to reach economies of scale and better compete against the Chinese. The market research firm expects the industry to see a 25.7% capacity utilization rate and 133 days inventory in 2010.

Average selling prices could drop below US$1 per watt in 2010 and US$0.50 in 2011. As many as 50% of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above US$2.00 per watt, may not survive, The Information Network stated.

Solar panel manufacturers that have reported loses just in the past few weeks include Energy Conversion Devices, JA Solar, LDK Solar, Q-Cells, ReneSola, Solar Power, and Yingli Green Energy Holding.

The Information Network: Planned global solar capacity increases, 2008-2010

Item


2008 2009 2010

Solar consumption (MW) 5,625 4,894 6,215

Solar capacity (MW) 11,722 17,551 24,212

Utilization 48.0% 27.9% 25.7%

Inventory days 71 122 133

Source: The Information Network, compiled by Digitimes, September 2009

[R-BgO]

The feed-in tariff: tripping up unexpecting countries
04 September 2009 | By Emma Hughes | Editor's Blog


The arrival of the feed-in tariff (FiT) was a much-anticipated one, something that would boost the solar sector and give countries around the globe the incentive they needed to convert from conventional energy sources into the renewable sector. No one could have predicted the upheaval that could have been brought with this seemingly positive move.

Spain

The first and most prominent downfall came in the shape of Spain. It introduced its generous FiT rate of up to €0.44/kWh back in 2007 when the government expected a steady stream of investment. In response, there came a flood.

The country was left accounting for more than 40% of the world's total solar installations in 2008. This huge uptake gave the powers-that-be no choice but to revise the FiT rate, causing Spain to became one of the principal causes of the downturn in the solar industry.
Some might say that the evident success stories of other countries like Germany caused a trend to be set for others. Yet in their infancy, unrevised policies could simply not cope with the unexpected.

Unlike Germany, Spain had no system built in to reduce tariff rates if its capacity targets were exceeded. Indeed, there were no stepped reductions, or digressions, at all. There was no ability to react.

While the Spanish government had expected it would not see 400MW of solar capacity in the country until 2010, by the autumn of 2007, some 350MW had already been installed. Chinese solar firms were sending container after container, laden with solar panels, to the country.

Scrambling, the government upped its target to 1,200MW. But as it became clear the market would exceed that limit, too, the boom became a frenzy as developers rushed to connect their projects to the grid before last September, when the government altered the tariff, dropping rates by 30%.

Many businesses have since felt burned by the boom and bust engendered by the tariff, facing accusations of fraud, based on claims that they had connected to the grid by the government's deadline of Sept. 29 of that year.

The government's revised tariff has set a hard cap of 500MW to be built, most of this as more costly rooftop installations. Revisions to the tariff are made on a quarterly basis. Demand remains high, however, with 2,468 applications having been received recently, according to the Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade.

Czech Republic

Unfortunately, this isn't the end of the tale. Next to fall at the foot of disaster was the Czech Republic. Since the state began supporting solar energy projects in 2005, the country has seen a similar reaction to the support of solar PV as Spain. The FiT rate, locked in for 20 years, fixed the price of solar power between €0.50/kWh and €0.52/kWh and limited cost decreases to 5% per year, even as the cost of producing solar energy falls 10% annually, according to the Energy Regulatory Commission. This FiT rate led to an outstanding 24,678% increase in solar energy plants, from nine in 2005 to 2,230 as of August 2009, as investors came to cash in on guaranteed profits.

Korea

Next on the chopping board was Korea. At a meeting on August the 24th, the Korean Green Growth Committee proposed plans to decrease support for large-scale solar systems. New government proposals also suggest a cap of 98MW for 2009, 132MW for 2010, and 162MW for 2011, well below expectations of 340MW, 400MW, and 500MW in 2009, '10, and '11, respectively.

In terms of Korea's prior solar program, which was considered to be highly attractive with 20-year FiT of €0.37/kWh for systems up to 30kW, €0.35/kWh for systems between 30 and 200kW, €0.32/kWh for systems below 3MW and €0.27/kWh for systems above 3MW.

Under the new program, 2009 subsidy could be increased for small systems, decreased for large systems. The proposed rates, which are currently under discussion are as follows: a) below 30kW system - increase subsidy by 10%, b) below 200kW system - increase subsidy by 5%, c) below 3MW system - decrease subsidy by 5%, d) above 3MW system - decrease subsidy by 10%.

USA

And, of course, this story would not be complete without a similar road-to-failure story from the U.S. The Salt River Project, the main utility in Phoenix, cut its homeowners' rebate by 10% in June 2009. The utility spent more than it budgeted for solar power, a result of a surge in demand as more solar installers moved into Arizona and government incentives kicked in.

California has steadily and somewhat quietly been bringing down its rebates with an imminent 29% cut in rebates offered within the service area of Pacific Gas and Electric, the dominant utility in Northern California.

Even if falling rebates cancel out some of the solar panel price slump, more innovative financing strategies are also helping to make solar affordable for homeowners. This year about a dozen states (following moves by California and Colorado last year) have enacted laws enabling solar panels to be paid off gradually, through increased property taxes, after a municipality first shoulders the upfront costs.

So, let this be a lessen learnt to all the countries which are currently molding the look of FiT rates, such as the UK, which is nearing the end of its three month consultation period. A good market strategy is a revised market strategy - rushing into a policy driven by profit is never a recipe for success.

[R-BgO]

Solar cell shipments in Japan hit record high in April-June
TOKYO, Sept. 6 KYODO
Solar roof panels in Japan's Gunma Prefecture

Demand for solar cells has been growing rapidly in Japan with a record generating capacity of 83,260 kilowatts shipped to the domestic market between April and June, up 82.5 percent from the same quarter last year, a private-sector survey showed Sunday.

83MW x 4 = 332 MW fürs Jahr...

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.921.770 von R-BgO am 04.09.09 17:36:44

Extreme Zahlen werden da diskutiert. Sooo schwarz sehe nicht mal ich die Lage. Aber man muss schon zugestehen, dass der jetzt mehrfach gemeldete starke Kapazitätsausbau bei zweit- und drittklassigen Chinesen sehr "ärgerlich" ist und die dringend nötige Konsolidierung auf die weitere Zukunft verschiebt.

Der Grund ist klar: Wer jetzt nicht von alten Siliziumverträgen belastet ist, der kann auf dem Spotmarkt kaufen und erzielt einen signifikanten Preisvorteil. Suntech (aber auch Q-Cells) haben bspw. gesagt, dass sie noch das ganze Jahr 2009 von Altverträgen kostenseitig belastet werden und erst ab 2010 relativ frei sein werden.

Wenn das stimmt, dürfte sich ab 2010 die Waage Stück für Stück zu Gunsten der etablierten China-Player senken. Eigentlich. Mal sehen, was wirklich passiert.

[R-BgO]

Showa Shell wirft seinen Hut in den Ring:

Man will ein drittes CIGS-Werk mit 900MW Kapazität bauen; Invest 1,1 Mrd$ also $1,22/Watt.

siehe auch Thread: CIGS-Produzent: Showa Shell Sekiyu

[R-BgO]

First Solar to beat crystalline competitors in 2009, says iSuppli

Press release; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Monday 7 September 2009]

Leveraging its low-cost thin-film process, US-based First Solar is expected to surpass its crystalline competitors to become the world's largest producer of photovoltaic (PV) cells in 2009, according to iSuppli.

First Solar is set to produce 1,100MW worth of solar cells in 2009, more than double the 503MW it made in 2008, said iSuppli. This will give First Solar nearly twice as much production of total solar cells as its nearest competitor Suntech Power.

"First Solar is leveraging its cost leadership to achieve market-share leadership in the global PV solar cell business," said Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. "The company's proprietary thin-film process is giving it an edge over the competition amid challenging solar market conditions."

Traditional solar cells have employed crystalline material, which is relatively efficient at converting light into electricity, but also more expensive relative to thin-film. In addition to SunTech Crystalline solar-cell suppliers include Q-Cells, Sharp, Yingli and JA Solar.

"First Solar sells its products at very competitive prices, always undercutting crystalline cells," Wicht continued. "With its capability to produce cells at a cost of US$0.89 per watt in the second quarter, First Solar is generating stable operating margins, while its competitors are struggling to stay profitable. Despite global oversupply of PV modules, First Solar is continuing to expand and is able to sell nearly all of its finished goods."

Beyond low-cost production, First Solar's success is also being driven by its well-established sales channels in Europe and its own installations for US utility projects, according to iSuppli.

In addition, First Solar holds the lowest levels of inventory in the global solar cell industry. iSuppli expects the company to actually sell all of its production in 2009, rather than stockpiling it.

First Solar will be the only company among the top-four solar cell suppliers able to gain market share in 2009, iSuppli said. Its portion of global solar cell MW production will rise to 12.8% in 2009, up from 7.5% in 2008.

With 3.92GW worth of solar capacity set to be installed in 2009, First Solar's cells will account for as much as 28% of the total, according to iSuppli. The company's share will be even higher in ground installations and large rooftops, where its products find the strongest acceptance. Its share will be lower in other types of installations, such as small rooftops.

"The rise of thin-film is due to the success of First Solar and its unique thin- film process," Wicht said. Because of its cost advantage, thin-film will grow to account for 34.5% of worldwide solar production in terms of MW in 2013, up from 14.2% in 2008, iSuppli forecast.

However, the research firm said it does not believe that the technology will surpass crystalline in the foreseeable future. "There is no new First Solar yet on the horizon. With only one supplier, thin-film's progress will be limited," Wicht indicated.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090907PR200.html

[R-BgO]

China's Solar Wafer Production Seems Out of Control 4 comments
by: Kelvin Schulle September 07, 2009 | about: CHINA / FSLR / LDK / SOL / STP / YGE

For ReneSola (SOL) and LDK Solar (LDK) investors, the worst is yet to come. China's poly-silicon production increases dramatically in the last 12 months and two new companies just started to produce poly-silicon last Months.

U.S.-listed solar wafer makers Renesola and LDK solar are facing tougher and tougher competition, their futures have now dimmed further since two more companies in China announced plans to produce poly-silicon wafers: Puhong new energy Corp and Shengte new energy Corp. Puhong is expected to produce 1500 tons poly-silicon by 2010 (a capacity compatible with Renesola's). Puhong won the bid in China's first 10MW solar project according to the China's official renewable energy website.

The two new poly-silicon companies sit just beside Renesola in the same industrial park in Zhejiang province. The amazing thing is that Renesola didn't win the contract to provide the wafer to the 10MW project, but a new company did. This is another example that indicates poly-silicon prices will tumble further if China's production goes out of control.

Renesola and LDK solar did sign some solar projects, but the funding for those projects is yet to be established. Moreover, the future of these projects is still uncertain because the Chinese central government is slowing down the loan programs due to over lending in the first half of 2009. Also, the solar projects announced in the past few months in China will still depend upon feasibility studies, which will take a long time.

Solar investors may hope solar wafer prices will stablize, but the reality may disappoint. The good news is for PV module makers, such as Yingli Green (YGE) and Suntech power (STP) as costs go down with the declining price of poly-silicon, making them compatible with First Solar (FSLR)

[R-BgO]

GROß!!!:

First Solar to Team With Ordos City on Major Solar Power Plant in China Desert

TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sep. 8, 2009-- First Solar today announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Chinese government to build a 2 gigawatt solar power plant in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, China.

Pursuant to the MOU, signed in the presence of Chairman Wu Bangguo of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China, the solar project in Ordos will be built over a multi-year period. Phase 1 will be a 30 megawatt demonstration project that will begin construction by June 1, 2010 and be completed as soon thereafter as practicable. Phases 2, 3 and 4 will be 100 megawatts, 870 megawatts, and 1,000 megawatts. Phases 2 and 3 will be completed in 2014 and Phase 4 will be completed by 2019.

“This major commitment to solar power is a direct result of the progressive energy policies being adopted in China to create a sustainable, long-term market for solar and a low carbon future for China,” First Solar CEO Mike Ahearn said at the signing ceremony. “We’re proud to be announcing this precedent-setting project today. It represents an encouraging step forward toward the mass-scale deployment of solar power worldwide to help mitigate climate change concerns.”

The project will operate under a feed-in-tariff which will guarantee the pricing of electricity produced by the power plant over a long-term period.

“The Chinese feed-in tariff will be critical to this project,” Ahearn said. “This type of forward-looking government policy is necessary to create a strong solar market and facilitate the construction of a project of this size, which in turn continues to drive the cost of solar electricity closer to ‘grid parity’ – where it is competitive with traditional energy sources.”

The MOU contemplates that during the implementation of the initial phases of the project First Solar will actively review the possibility of module and supplier manufacturing sites in Ordos, and other considerations required to support a First Solar investment. First Solar also intends to facilitate expansion of the supply chains in China for thin film photovoltaic module production and for the recycling of photovoltaic modules after use.

“We are very pleased to be partnering with one of the solar industry’s global technology leaders in a project of such significance to Ordos’s low carbon future,” said Cao Zhichen, vice mayor of Ordos Municipal Government. “Discussions with First Solar about building a factory in China demonstrate to investors in China that they can confidently invest in the most advanced technologies available.”

The MOU sets forth the agreement in principle of the parties concerning the project and related activities. Final agreement between the parties is subject to the negotiation and execution of definitive agreements among the parties.

[Dere]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.941.073 von R-BgO am 08.09.09 19:39:11

Thats big!!!
Firstsolar protzt mal wieder.....



Das PV-Geschäft ist so schnellebig, der reine Wahnsinn.

Vor ca. 8 Wochen hat mir ein Großhändler erzählt (er verkauft ausschließlich Solarworld) das er schon lange vorbestellen muß.

Heute werden die Großhändler die mit Modulen aus der zweiten Reihe
handeln schon leicht panisch. Auftragsflut ohne Ende keine gscheiden
Mitarbeiter gibts mehr, und die Module werden auch schon knapp.

Bin mal gespannt wann/ob noch in diesem Jahr die Chinesen auch knapp werden.

Mir kommts so vor wie auf Feiern, wenn Sektkelche übereinandergestapelt von oben nach unten eingegossen werden....

Gruß
Dere

[R-BgO]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20090910PD218.html%3E

[R-BgO]

Solar energy saturates market
State follows German and Spanish lead, considers cutting subsidies

Posted: September 2, 2009

By Stephan Delbos, Staff Writer

Solar energy saturates market

Courtesy Photo

Solar panels have cropped up in droves since the state began supporting solar energy projects in 2005, making solar energy plants one of the Czech Republic's hottest -- and safest -- investments. But as Spain's recent solar boom and bust showed, too many incentives can oversaturate a market in record time. As a result, the government has been forced to consider curbing renewable resource subsidies in the Czech Republic.

The Industry and Trade Ministry is drafting a bill that, if passed this autumn, would end state guarantees on the wholesale market price of solar energy. Price guarantees, or "feed-in tariffs" locked in for 20 years in 2005, fixed the price of solar power between 12,790 Kč and 12,890 Kč per megawatt hour and limited cost decreases to 5 percent per year, even as the cost of producing solar energy falls 10 percent annually, according to the Energy Regulatory Commission. The feed-in tariffs led to a whopping 24,678 percent increase in solar energy plants, from nine in 2005 to 2,230 as of August this year, as investors came to cash in on guaranteed profits.

The ministry believes the industry has become too lucrative to warrant additional funding, and has proposed to cancel the annual five percent limit by which the Energy Regulatory Commission is allowed to cut guaranteed market prices on solar energy. According to Matyáš Vitík, a spokesman for the Industry and Trade Ministry, the solar industry has begun to take unfair advantage of government support.

"The Industry and Trade Ministry wants to change the law because the public support of solar energy has become the instrument of profit," he said. "The plants are built because of profit."
Megawatts produced in ČR

The Czech Republic is now the EU's 8th-largest solar energy producer.


2005 0.12
2006 0.15
2007 0.35
2008 3.40
Jan 2009 54.29
June 2009 73.71
July 2009 80.21
Aug. 2009 83.96

Number of solar power
plants in ČR

Solar plants have grown from only nine in 2005 to 2,230 as of August 2009.


2005 9
2006 12
2007 28
2008 249
Jan. 2009 1,214
June 2009 1,818
July 2009 2,046
Aug. 2009 2,230

But experts in the European solar energy sector say that government support is a continued necessity if countries like the Czech Republic are to realize the European Union's Energy Directive, which aspires to having 20 percent of energy produced by renewable resources by 2020. Eleni Despotou, deputy secretary general of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, said government support of solar energy doesn't go into investors' pockets, but into research and development, which helps bring the cost of solar energy to more manageable levels.

"To say we don't need the tariff is not true. We need to lower the costs of producing solar energy in order to become more competitive," she said. "We don't advocate high tariffs but [instead] what we call a 'fair' tariff, which is typically lower and longer term."

Energy 21, with eight solar plants located throughout southern Bohemia and Moravia, is one company that has taken advantage of feed-in tariffs. CEO Daniel Kunz said the government's regulation of the subsidy is understandable and perhaps even necessary, but cautioned the long-term price stability offered by feed-in tariffs is one of the most attractive qualities for investors. If the government goes too far in price regulation, it risks capping growth in the important new industry.

"The necessity to optimize the growth of [solar] installations in the development of solar technologies is comprehensible," he said. But, he added "the sector's attraction is based on the combination of a reasonable pay-back period and low economic risks for high-quality projects. In the case of new risks connected with feed-in tariffs and [price] predictability, the sector will lose its attraction, and its rate of growth will slow down or stop."

Solar energy remains the most expensive renewable energy source, and it is unlikely to achieve cost parity with traditional energy sources in the Czech Republic before 2020. But, as solar technology advances, costs decline, said Martin Šimonek, New Energy Finance's analyst for solar power in Central and Eastern Europe. According to Šimonek, each time solar energy production doubles, production costs decrease 19.8 percent, making government support for solar power environmentally sensible in the short term and lucrative in the long term.

"The greater the global capacity for solar power production, the cheaper it becomes," he said.

The Czech Republic followed Germany's and Spain's lead in introducing feed-in tariffs to aid the fledgling solar energy industry. Since the tariff's 2005 introduction, the country has become the eighth-largest solar energy producer in the EU, with a yearly capacity for 83.96 megawatts, up from just 3.4 megawatts in 2008, according to the Industry and Trade Ministry. The Czech Republic is not the first to impose limits on an all-too-successful tariff system.

After feed-in tariffs sparked a stunning boom in solar energy investment, Spain was forced to alter its tariff system when it became clear that the industry was glutted, producing 2.6 gigawatts of energy in 2008, well above the target of 400 megawatts. The Spanish government lowered solar power rates 30 percent last fall, effectively pulling the rug out from under the industry, leading to huge losses for investors and solar technology producers. Perhaps taking the southern country's losses as a cautionary tale, the Czech government is opting to follow Germany's lead with a more flexible tariff reduction system, said Šimonek.

"The Czech Republic is following the German example of flexible degradation, meaning if you reach certain levels of output, the degradation of costs will be higher in the next year, but if you don't produce too much, the cost degradation will be lower," he said. "This is a much healthier approach than Spain's."

Stephan Delbos can be reached at
[e-mail].

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.966.373 von R-BgO am 11.09.09 22:36:03

Hier nochmal der Link zur besseren Lesbarkeit:

http://www.praguepost.com/print/2163-solar-energy-saturates-…

Es sollen 2009 tatsächlich bereits 80MW in Tschechien installiert worden sein!!!

[R-BgO]

aus einem Interview mit Martin Roescheisen; KAPITALEFFIZIENZ!!!!!!:

First Solar and others have talked about what it means to be a gigawatt-scale company, a 2GW, 5GW, 10GW company and beyond, in terms of the ultimate potential for solar to scale to planetary levels. What’s your vision of Nano’s future and its ability to meet the challenges of solar’s multigigawatt and even terawatt era?

I’m not an economist; I like to stay focused on shipping the next 10 MW. Plus once we have shipped multiple 100MWs, we will still have plenty of time to think of multiple GWs.

That said, for solar to go to big scale at low price points, there is no way of doing so without supreme capital efficiency of production. If your price point to capex ratio is one, you can’t grow even at 30% a year without being an eternal black hole for cash flows. We are quite pleased about the extent to which we are beating our original business plan on capital efficiency; we are on a very good track there and have many more things in the pipeline along these lines.

[R-BgO]

aus dem Photovoltaikforum; bei einer 5,4kW-Anlage!!!:

ANGEBOT 2

5,40 kWp-Anlage
Angaben zum Dach und Lage:
Standort: 32130 Enger (bei Bielefeld, NRW, Ostwestfalen)
Dachneigung: 45 Grad
Ausrichtung: SSW (194 Grad)
Art der Dacheindeckung: Betonstein, tiefschwarz

Module: 30 x Yingli Solar YL180Wp (poly)
Wechselrichter ( /Marke/Anzahl): 1 x Mastervolt (SunMaster XS-Serie)
+ SMA Webbox mit Modem (Anlagenüberwachung, PC)
Montagesystem ( Marke): Aluminium/Edelstahl
Montage: ja, komplett
geplantes Inbetriebnahmejahr (Monat): Ende 2009
errechnete kWh/kWp im Jahr: 900
Verschattungen: 2 Gauben
Freier Zählerplatz vorhanden? wird i.R. des Neubaus vorgesehen
Finanzierung: Fremdfinanzierung (4,1%)
Kosten: 2.650 EUR / kWp

[R-BgO]

Verlauf der letzten Wochen aus Sicht von PV-Insights:

8.Juli
Better demand made solar cell and wafer prices stable.

Due to solar installation hot season, solar companies all have better demand now. However, solar system makers have higher quality or efficiency solar component selections from the current strong solar module or cell supply. On the other hand, poly-silicon makers still said that they have to cut their quarterly contact price in 3Q09 in the semiconductor and solar industries.

Solar module makers intend to have better market share in3Q09. These solar module makers provide high efficiency module to system makers with the same price level. As a result, average solar module price dropped 0.54% to US $1.3. Solar cell makers provide higher efficiency solar cell to maintain price table. Average156mm sq poly wafer was also no change this week. Average poly-silicon price reduced -0.91% to US$ 54.5/Kg.

15.Juli
Solar module and cell price was up this week.

Solar system in the US and in Euro seems to be better and solar component suppliers intend to drive price up by higher efficiency parts. Some solar cell and wafer makers did increase price in the past one week. However, there is no strong signal to show us price will have continuous uptrend in the coming few months. Most solar cell and module makers still believe that solar component price will be stable in 3Q09. Moreover, there is a coming downtrend in 4Q09 again when solar installation solw season is coming in winter.

As a result, average solar module price was up 1.64% to US $1.86. Solar cell makers provide higher efficiency solar cell to drive price up 3.33% to US $1.24 for 156mm Poly solar cell. Average156mm sq poly wafer was also no change this week. Average poly-silicon price kept stable at the price of US$ 54.5/Kg.

22.Juli
Some big solar projects in the US and in Euro drove price up.

According to many industry sources, solar system makers have a lot of big project to go in the US and in the Euro in 3Q09. These projects did show up a lot of purchasing activities this month. Some special deals at the end of last month showed up some low prices for financial quarter end. Solar component makers try to push the prices back to higher price level. As a result, solar component makers push price up successfully. Moreover, solar module and cell makers got the orders earlier than solar wafer and poly-silicon wafer suppliers. This also made solar cell and module prices increase sharply than solar wafer and poly-Silicon makers.

As a result, average solar module price was up 5.38% to US $1.96. Solar cell makers provide higher efficiency solar cell to drive price up 7.26% to US $1.33 for 156mm Poly solar cell. Average156mm sq poly wafer went up 1.61% to US $3.15 in the past one week. Average poly-silicon price was up 2.75% to the price of US$ 56/Kg.

29.Juli
Better demand made vendors more price confidence.

Industry sources said that there is a better demand from the current traditional installation season in the US and in Euro. Most solar component makers have more and more orders now so as to have more confidence to raise solar component prices up. On the other hand, most solar vendors think that solar prices will be difficult to raise solar price sharply in the coming 2-3 months.

In the past one week, average solar module price was up 2.55% to US $2.01. Solar cell makers provide 156mm sq poly solar cells with higher efficiency to push price up 3.76% to US $1.38l. Average156mm sq poly wafer went up 0.63% to US $3.17. Average poly-silicon price was up 0.89% to the price of US$ 56.5/Kg.

5.August
Solar module retailer price competition made price up more difficult.

According to our market survey, one solar module maker had drop their solar panel retailer price lower than US$ 2.0 this week. Most solar module makers all faced this serious situation and turned to solar cell makers to ask lower component prices. However, solar demand is still fine this month and it will be very difficult to see price drop immediately. Most solar makers think that solar component price will be moving at a narrow price range in the coming two months. In 4Q09, PVinsights believe that solar component prices will have more sharply drops in the spot market.

In the spot market, average solar module price kept stable at the price of US $2.01 per watt. Average solar cell price maintained at the price of US $1.38. Average156mm sq poly wafer had no change at the price US $3.17. Average poly-silicon price was the same as the previous one at the price of US$ 56.5/Kg.

12.August
Continuous demand made solar wafer and polysilicon price up.

Demand is really back in 3Q09, most solar makers have increased their utilization rate. Solar wafer makers also had better orders now and try to raise wafer price. However, solar cell and solar module makers can not push their price up at the same time. As a result, solar wafer makers increased their price moderately.

In the spot market, average solar module price kept stable at the price of US $2.01 per watt. Average solar cell price maintained at the price of US $1.38. Average156mm sq poly wafer successfully raised price to US $3.22. Average poly-silicon price was up US$ 0.5 to the price of US$ 57/Kg.

19.August
Solar wafer and Polysilicon vendors successfully raised price again.

In order to maintain contract price, some solar wafer makers started to do solar module or solar cell business by outsourcing their solar cell or module manufacturing to Asian solar cell or module makers. Moreover, solar wafer vendors try to force solar cell makers to realize their contract so as to push spot price up. After solar wafers had better demand in 3Q09, polysilicon makers also pushed the spot price in the spot market. On the other hand, solar module price and cell price is still stable, because solar module retailer price was still dropping in Aug.

In the past one week, average solar module price maintained stable at the price of US $2.01 Per Watt. Average solar cell price had no change at the price of US $1.38. Average156mm sq poly wafer successfully increased price 2.48% to US $3.3. Average poly-silicon price raised US$ 5 to the price of US$ 62 Per Kg.

26.August
Solar wafer makers increased price difficultly.

Most solar wafer makers aggressively intended to push price up, but their clients can not accept significant price up because solar cell makers can not raise selling price. Without explosive demand growth, solar component can not have a lone term price uptrend to the whole supply chain. At this moment, solar module makers can only maintain price stable to drive more demand. Although demand is better, there is still oversupply situation in solar industry.

Average solar module price maintained stable at the price of US $2.01 Per Watt. Average solar cell price had still no change at the price of US $1.38. Average156mm sq poly wafer price was raised 1.21% to US $3.34. Average poly-silicon price was up US$ 0.5 to the price of US$ 62.5 Per Kg.

2.September
Solar cell price drop showed a warning sign.

Although order is visible to October, most solar component makers are worry about the coming slow season. Moreover, China government policy change forced Chinese solar component vendors no more optimistic to the demand in China. Some Chinese solar cell or solar panel makers began to accept lower selling price this month. This price drop showed the sign of a coming price downtrend.

Average solar cell price had dropped 3.62% to the price of US $1.33 per watt. Average solar module price reduced 1.49% to the price of US $1.98 per watt. Average156mm sq poly wafer price was stable at the price of US $3.34. Average poly-silicon price had no change at the price of US$ 62.5 per Kg.

9.September
Solar wafer price seemed to reach the pick this month.

So far, solar manufacturing utilization rate still maintained at high level now. Although solar wafer makers would like to raise spot price now, solar cell or solar module makers can not accept these offers now. Solar cell makers were trying hard to maintain price stable in the past one week. Fortunately, solar demand was still fine thi month. Therefore, most solar component prices maintained stable in the past one week.

Average solar cell price had dropped 0.75% to the price of US $1.32 per watt. Average solar module price had no change at the price of US $1.98 per watt. Average156mm sq poly wafer price was stable at the price of US $3.34. Average poly-silicon price had no change at the price of US$ 62.5 per Kg.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.968.998 von R-BgO am 13.09.09 09:37:40

Mein Bauchgefühl und ein paar Hinweise, die man hier und da aufschnappt, lassen mich vermuten, dass der deutsche Markt extrem brummt.

Ich wage nochmals die "Prognose", dass wir uns über die Installationsleistung 2009 in Deutschland wohl erschrecken werden. Wahrscheinlich wird es nicht so ein großer Schock, wie in Spanien, also 300% bis 400% über Plan - dafür fehlt hier die Freifläche. Aber 100% bis 300% über Plan halte ich für möglich. Das heißt irgendwas zwischen 3 und 6 GW. Wobei 6 GW wirklich schon ein heftiger Knaller wäre.

Mein Eindruck ist außerdem, dass der Preisverfall in Deutschland inzwischen teilweise durch den Mangel an Installationskapazität gebremst wird. Ich habe jetzt mehrfach gelesen, dass die Solarteure sich die Projekte aussuchen können und teilweise nicht mal mehr Angebote erstellen.

Ich gehe letztlich auch davon aus, dass vor allem das vierte Quartal in Deutschland sehr, sehr stark werden wird (wir bekommen diesmal ja auch einen milden Winter ). Denn nach der Bundestagswahl wird recht schnell eine politische Debatte losgehen, die Einspeisevergütung signifikant zu senken (was auch notwendig ist). Das haben viele durchaus schon auf dem Plan und handeln schon jetzt entsprechend. Für spätberufene, die erst im Oktober wach werden, könnte es zu spät sein, weil dann vielleicht keine Installationskapazität bis Jahresende mehr frei ist.

[R-BgO]

Einspeisetarif in Indien: http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=…

[tonycat]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.969.048 von SLGramann am 13.09.09 10:01:45

Ja, sicher wird es mehr werden als gedacht, im Juni wurden übrigens:
Anzahl der Datenmeldungen im Juni: 10067 (neue Anlagen)
Summe der neu installierten Leistung in kWp im Juni: 195.250 kWp
also etwas über 195 MW Anlagen-Peak Leistung hinzugefügt (im Mai waren es 135 MW, dafür deutlich weniger, also wir hatten erst ca. im August/September 1 GW erreicht!!
Ich denke, wir kommen vielleicht jetzt auch 300-400 MW, also insgesagt Stand Mitte September denke ich werden es 2-3 (mit Endspurt) villeicht 4 GW werden, mehr kaum (Montagekapazitäten, Wechselrichter Lieferengpäße usw.).

Wichtig ist eigentlich nur, daß die Einspeisevergütung behutsam weiter gesenkt wird (die Modulepreise die jetzt bei den Solarteuren und Projektierern ankommen sind bekanntlich sehr niedrig) und der Ausbau ordentlich weiter geht (wichtig: absoluter Vorrang aller Null-Input Energiequellen, also Sonne, Wind, Wasser und Geothermie), ist macht einfach keinen Sinn mit Gas, Kohle oder Atom zu stromen oder heizen, wenn genügend Wind und Sonne (und endlich auch mehr Geothermie) zur Verfügung stehen.

[king_of_fools]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.986.956 von tonycat am 15.09.09 23:34:00

Danke für die Daten. Woher hast Du sie?


Grüße kof

[R-BgO]

Taiwan-made poly-Si solar cells reach mainstream conversion rate of 15.75%

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Monday 14 September 2009]

Major Taiwan-based polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) solar cell makers have attained a mainstream energy conversion rate of 15.75% and competitors failing to reach the level may have to lower prices to stay in the business, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The global market of solar cells has turned from a seller's market in 2008 to a buyer's market currently, and cost control is thus crucial to competitiveness, said Ellick Liao, president of Taiwan solar cell maker Gintech Energy.

Based on an average spot market price of US$70/kg for poly-Si, prices for a 6-inch solar-grade poly-Si wafer are US$3.3-3.5, Liao noted. If a maker produces a 3.87-watt solar cell at an energy conversion rate of 15.9% from such a wafer, it can have a net margin of 10% based on current sales prices of US$1.3-1.4/watt for poly-Si solar cells, he analyzed.

Operational scale is also important, and makers with monthly output below 30MWp (megawatt-peak) will find it difficult to control costs, he added.

Gintech has reached an average energy conversion rate of 15.9% for poly-Si solar cells, and is expanding its annual capacity of poly-Si and monocrystalline silicon solar cells from a total of 510MWp to 560MWp in October 2009 and further to 660MWp in the first quarter of 2010, Liao noted.

[R-BgO]

Suppliers cut poly-Si spot quotes but buyers asking for more reductions

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 16 September 2009]

International suppliers of polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) have lowered their spot market quotes from US$65-70/kg in August to US$65/kg currently, but buyers are asking for prices below US$60/kg due to conservative business outlook for the fourth quarter, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

[R-BgO]

Zitat vom Wacker Capital Markets Day zu Poly heute:

"Production on highest possible level, capacity utilization 100%"

[lieberlong]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.005.898 von R-BgO am 17.09.09 23:58:26

Germany's Solar World eyes stake in UAE plant
Sep 17, 2009 at 17:23

By Anneli Palmen

SolarWorld, Germany's third-biggest solar company by revenue, is planning to take a stake in an polysilicon plant in the UAE, its chief executive told news agency Reuters on Thursday.

"Depending on the size of the stake, the investment could be up to $500 million," Frank Asbeck said, adding that this could be financed through equity capital and external funding.

Asbeck - who is in the United Arab Emirates as part of a German delegation around Juergen Ruettgers, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia - said by telephone that the decision on the plant's location and the size of the stake would be decided by the end of the year.

Falling margins and over capacities have forced German solar companies - such as SolarWorld and Q-Cells - to expand into new markets, most notably China and the U.S., where large subsidy programmes are being implemented.

http://business.maktoob.com/20090000374686/Germany_s_Solar_W…

[R-BgO]

PVI 16Sep2009:

Solar component prices dropped due to slow season expectations.

Solar vendors expected hot season is near the end, although it is almost full capacity now. Moreover, solar panel and solar cell prices have dropped a little bit in the beginning of this month. Without downstream solar component price support, polysilicon and solar wafer also showed a sign to drop this week. PVinsights expected that solar component price will show an obvious downtrend again soon.

Average solar cell price was down 0.76% to the price of US $1.31 per watt. Average solar module price dropped 0.51% to the price of US $1.97 per watt. Average156mm sq poly wafer price started to drop 0.3% to the price of US $3.33. Average poly-silicon price began to reduce 1.6% at the price of US$ 61.5 per Kg.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 37.969.048 von SLGramann am 13.09.09 10:01:45

Ich kann aus eigner Erfahrung bestätigen, dass die Firmen meist gar nicht mehr auf Anfragen reagieren. Wenn Angebote kommen liegen die Preise bei einer ca. 7kWp-Anlange bei 3300-3900€/kW. Wer jetzt noch will muss blechen.

Größer werdendes Risio ist auch die Genehmigung vom Stromkonzern. Die lassen sich Zeit, so dass der Jahreswechsel droht.

[SLGramann]

Asbeck versucht es mit einer aktiven bzw. konstruktiven Strategie:



Solarworld-Chef Asbeck für Senkung der Solarsubventionen
Exklusiv Erstmals stellt ein deutscher Solarunternehmer die üppigen Zuschüsse für die Branche in Frage: "Man sollte vorhandene Spielräume nutzen, um die Vergütungen für den Solarstrom weiter zu reduzieren."
von Claus Hecking, Hamburg
"Die Weltmarktpreise für Solaranlagen sind stark gefallen. Dem kann bei der Vergütung Rechnung getragen werden, um den Stromverbraucher nicht über Gebühr zu belasten.", sagte der Gründer des deutschen Marktführers der Financial Times Deutschland
Erstmals stellt damit ein deutscher Solarunternehmer die üppigen Einspeisevergütungen in Frage. Das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) garantiert den Erzeugern von Solarstrom derzeit auf 20 Jahre hinaus für jede Kilowattstunde Strom zwischen 32 und 43 Cent - das fünf- bis siebenfache des Börsenpreises für herkömmliche Elektrizität. Die Mehrkosten wälzen die Energieversorger auf die Stromverbraucher ab.
Asbeck will daher die Vergütungen für Solarstrom stärker kürzen, als es das EEG vorsieht. Im Gesetz ist derzeit eine jährliche Tarifsenkung für neue Anlagen von acht bis zehn Prozent verankert. "Laut EEG kann diese Degression pro Jahr je nur um einen Prozentpunkt steigen", sagte der 50-Jährige. "Angesichts des guten Marktwachstums glaube ich aber, dass man mehrere solche Schritte auf einmal machen kann."

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:gefallene-weltmarkt…

---------------------

Aus meiner Sicht ist es richtig, dass die Solarbranche selbst etwas anbietet. Zwischen den Zeilen lese ich bei Asbeck -30% heraus. So würde ich jedenfalls "mehrere solche Schritte auf einmal" interpretieren.

Die Frage wird sein, ob der Einschnitt ins EEG schon 2010 bzw. im Laufe des Jahres 2010 erfolgt oder erst zum 01.01.2011.

Aus grundsätzlichen Überlegungen heraus, würde ich -30% zum 01.01.2010 sehr begrüßen. Und dann mal schauen. Das ganze EEG muss in Sachen PV flexibler werden! Ist zu viel Dynamik in der Branche.

[tonycat]

Ich denke, er meint die jährliche Extradegression von 1% auf einen Schlag vorzuziehen. Ok, das wären dann 8% normale Degression plus 20 (?) Jahre 1%, also 28%? Das wäre schon heftig, vielleicht abgezinst abziehen? - Also, jedenfalls 5-10% Extradegression wäre, vielleicht jeweils zum 1.1.2010 und 1.1.2011 bei Überschreiten des erwarteten Kapazitätsausbaus von über 1 (oder über 2 GW) wäre angebracht.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.019.112 von tonycat am 20.09.09 23:17:21

Irgendwas um die 30% wird kommen und das ist auch absolut vertretbar imho.

Heute erschien im Spiegel ein aufschlussreicher Artikel, der zeigt, dass es mittlerweile einen parteiübergreifenden Konsens für eine deutliche Absenkung der PV-Vergütung gibt.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,650996,0…

Ein interessanter Satz daraus:

Selbst in der SPD scheint sich die Meinung über das EEG allmählich zu ändern. Laut einem Bericht der "Welt am Sonntag" hält auch das momentan noch von Sigmar Gabriel geführte Bundesumweltministerium eine EEG-Revision schon zum Ende des Jahres für möglich.


Es kann unter Umständen ziemlich zügig gehen - Bundesrat hin oder her. Wenn man will, kann man so eine - eigentlich geringfügige Novelle - in Monatsfrist durchbringen.

Fakt ist, dass das BMU selbst in seiner Leitstudie "Erneuerbare Energien" der PV nie mehr als 3 GW pro Jahr eingeräumt hat (bei den derzeitigen Fördersätzen).

Wer geglaubt hat (wie zeitweise Frau Kreutzmann), dass es in Deutschland politische Rückendeckung für eine höhere Installationskapazität gibt, war immer auf dem Holzweg und hat offenkundig nicht mal die einschlägigen Strategiepapiere des BMU gelesen - oder nicht ernst genommen.

[R-BgO]

Ontario Introduces Feed-In Tariff, Other Renewable Energy Initiatives
in News Departments > Policy Watch
by SI Staff on Thursday 24 September 2009
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The province of Ontario has rolled out a series of new measures designed to attract new investment in renewable energy projects and build a green economy that will promote the creation of 50,000 jobs over the next three years.

According to the government of Ontario, the initiatives include the first comprehensive feed-in-tariff (FIT) program in North America that guarantees specific rates for energy generated from renewable sources. The FIT is designed to encourage the development of renewable energy projects by a range of generators. Prices are intended to cover total project costs and provide a reasonable rate of return over a 20-year contract.

FIT payments can range from C$0.10 per kWh for landfill gas projects larger than 10 MW to C$0.82 kWh for residential solar rooftop projects 10 kW or smaller. The FIT also includes a price adder for Aboriginal and community projects to encourage participation.

Developers will be required to have a certain percentage of their project costs come from Ontario goods and labor at the time they reach commercial operation, the minister's office adds. For micro solar PV (10 kW or smaller), this requirement will start at 40% and increase to 60% on Jan. 1, 2011. For larger solar PV, the requirement will start at 50% and increase to 60% on Jan. 1, 2011.

The Ontario Power Authority (OPA) will begin accepting FIT applications on Oct. 1 and expects to sign the first contracts in early December.

Ontario will direct the OPA that there is to be no ground-mounted solar procurement above 100 kW on Class 1 and 2 or Specialty Crop Areas to provide continued protection of such lands. Some ground-mounted solar procurement, up to 500 MW, will be allowed on Class 3 lands, to be allocated on a regional basis.

Additionally, the Renewable Energy Approval (REA) process has become law. The REA is designed to ensure that renewable energy projects are developed in a way that is protective of human health, the environment, and Ontario's cultural and natural heritage.

Ontario has also established the Renewable Energy Facilitation Office (REFO). The REFO is a one-window access point to assist developers, communities and municipalities obtain information on developing renewable energy projects in Ontario, and help them navigate through the regulatory approvals necessary to make their projects a reality.

SOURCE: Government of Ontario

[R-BgO]

The Sweet Smell of Solar Values 3 comments
by: Shawn Kravetz October 09, 2009 | about: AKNS / ATSAF.PK / CSIQ / ESLR / FSLR / RSOL / TIMNF.PK / TSL / YGE
Shawn Kravetz picture Shawn Kravetz


For decades, enterprising marketers have unabashedly pitched knockoffs of designer colognes and perfumes at cut rate prices. They were originally marketed with catchy slogans like: “If you like GIORGIO, you’ll love PRIMO.” Today, it might read “If you like OBSESSION, you’ll love RECESSION.”
I thought of this vis a vis solar stocks because we are seeing something reminiscent of this today…with a twist. Today we are seeing the real stuff on sale. It’s Brioni suits at Filene’s Basement or TJ Maxx. Truly the same, but much cheaper and in your size. We humbly offer you four examples of designer quality solar companies without the designer prices.
If you like Yingli (YGE), you’ll love Trina (TSL). This duo is a fairly traditional relative value play with an edge. The investor community has crowned Yingli as the global low cost leader, a title rightfully deserved in the recent past. However, on the way to Yingli’s coronation, Trina usurped the throne as the low cost king. After crunching the Q2 2009 data, we estimate that Trina sustains a ~10% fully loaded cost advantage over Yingli. Trina can manufacture a module for $2.05 per watt whereas Yingli is producing at $2.30 per watt including COGS, operating expenses and interest expense. In fairness to Yingli, we hold them in high regard as one of the leading global solar companies (and a cost leader) and have owned their stock and related securities in the past. However, with Trina, we own a slightly lower cost producer with 75% of the capacity at ~50% of the enterprise value. Trina has a comparable if not more favorably diversified geographic footprint, higher gross and operating margins, a bankable brand, a better balance sheet (70% less net debt than YGE), and a simpler corporate structure. And most importantly, Trina trades at a discounted valuation to Yingli. Based on consensus (and not our significantly higher proprietary earnings estimates for Trina), Yingli trades at ~16.5X 2010E EPS whereas Trina ~13.5X.
If you like Evergreen Solar (ESLR), you’ll love ATS Automation (ATSAF.PK). We have always liked Evergreen’s string ribbon technology, especially in an era of $400/kg polysilicon. Unfortunately, commercializing that technology ballooned ESLR’s balance sheet. Today, ESLR has a $600 million enterprise value and is likely to remain unprofitable for the near future. ATS Automation manufactures the “Quad” furnaces that are the heart of Evergreen’s wafer technology. While Evergreen has not managed to make money, they are intent on driving their business. Each new factory or JV is a win for ATS without the capex needed by Evergreen or its partners. A source at Evergreen confirmed that they were paying $185,000 per furnace in the boom times of 2008. It truly is getting the milk without buying the cow. Moreover, in ATS we own its other solid automation businesses serving energy, healthcare and other end markets. Finally, ATS owns Photowatt, a solid PV manufacturer and installer with some challenges but well positioned in two of the most rapidly emerging and highly subsidized solar markets: France and Ontario. This makes me think of another example: If you like(d) Spain’s solar market in 2008, you’ll love Ontario. But that’s another story for another time. With a superb management team and a cash rich balance sheet, ATS is an Esplanade favorite.
If you like First Solar (FSLR), you’ll love integrated Chinese module makers and upgraded metallurgical silicon (CSIQ/TSL/TIM in Canada). Everyone is focused on the “second” First Solar. We admire First Solar (though we don’t own the stock). Frankly, they have no real competition for what they do. The most likely competition on the cost side, however, is not a venture-backed “highly promising” company (possible but unlikely anytime soon), but rather a few companies with one weapon. Start with the global leading processing and administrative cost structure of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) or Trina. Then add upgraded metallurgical silicon [UMg] (instead of traditional polysilicon), such as that made by Timminco (TIMNF.PK). Most people have assumed that polysilicon will continue its price decline into perpetuity. We disagree. If polysilicon pricing holds or even rises, then UMg becomes a very compelling low cost substitute. In 2010, we can easily envision UMg module costs of: $0.85 processing for the ingot through module. $0.21 for UMg ($30/kg at 7 g/watt), and $0.20 for operating expenses. All in cost of $1.26 versus FSLR fully-loaded at ~$1.23 in Q2 2009 (admittedly, this will decline in 2010). Should FSLR be scared? No, but they should keep an eye on their rear view mirror for this compelling combination.
If you like Phoenix Solar, Real Goods (RSOL), Akeena (AKNS) or any other downstream solar company, you’ll love Systaic. It’s difficult to fault even the most seasoned solar investors for overlooking this tiny EUR EUR 76 million market capitalization solar project developer, yet it trades at ~25% of Phoenix Solar’s enterprise value to ebitda. Systaic boasts a robust 205 megawatt solar power plant pipeline (largely in Italy) that should be realized through the end of 2010. With EUR 700 million in potential revenue from their large solar power plant segment alone, systaic will not remain unnoticed for long. We estimate that the power plant segment can generate over EUR 40 million in EBIT in 2009 alone, which suggests that the entire enterprise is trading at ~2X the power plant segment 2009E EBIT.
In addition to its core and very profitable power plant business, Systaic is nurturing two potentially explosive growth businesses, solar energy roof systems and automotive solar roofs. Management believes that the solar energy roof systems business can generate EUR 100 million in revenue in 2010 (versus ~EUR 30 million in 2009) and that the automotive roof segment can deliver EUR 100 million in revenue within three years. In the meantime, these two businesses barely consume cash, and management is confident that the solar roof systems business will turn a profit in Q4 2009. We have confidence in Systaic’s veteran management team to deliver on these two promising businesses, and we believe that trading at 4.7X our estimate for 2009 EPS and 8X 2009 consensus (two analysts), we get the potential of the energy roof and automotive segments for free.
Ah, the sweet smell of solar values.

[R-BgO]

war ja ruhig hier, während des letzten Monats...


Major China PV module makers lower 1Q10 quotes to 1.2-1.3 euro/watt

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 20 October 2009]

Major China-based photovoltaic (PV) module makers have lowered their quotes for first-quarter 2010 by about 13-14% to 1.2-1.3 euro/watt from the present 1.4-1.5 euro/watt for their clients in Europe, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The makers are cutting their prices because they expect a further decrease in production cost and continued price reductions by second-tier competitors, the sources said.

In response, leading European PV module makers have quoted 1.8-1.9 euro/watt for first-quarter 2010, decreasing by about 5% from their current quotes of 1.9-2.0 euro/watt, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

und MEMC kauft SunEdison und will damit ein großer Downstream-Player werden...

und STR geht an die Börse...

und Trony will an die Börse...

[R-BgO]

SPI rewind: Regional plays, downstream surge, cost/W marches on

November 9, 2009 - Deutsche Bank's Stephen O'Rourke summarized his thoughts about this year's Solar Power International show in a pair of research reports, noting the "strongly positive sentiment" at the show, likely attributable mostly to near-term business prospects. Among his observations:

- Problems in the US. Credit availability, competition among developers, and long approval times for utility projects are all constraining factors, he notes. Credit terms are now typically <10 years, with few large-scale projects getting financing, and the "intense competition for PPA agreements" is resulting in bids that "are arguably below a level that makes economic sense" for the winners, so they are shelved hoping for future renegotiation or timed far enough out to hope for better prices - PUC projects in CA can be well over a year, he notes. That's good for building a long-term pipeline of work, but "if these issues persist well into next year, 2010 could prove a disappointing installation year in the US," O'Rourke writes, predicting 2010 installs to be "at the lower half" of a range of 600MW-1.1GWp.

- Mixed forecast for Germany. Talks at the show suggest the German market still offers good near-term business, possibly better than a year ago, though module declines will continue. "While many have opinions on anticipated changes to the German FIT, no one knows for certain," he writes. Demand "could hold up reasonably well" with attractive ROI on projects -- if the weather is good; if not, "1Q could disappoint compared to expectations that seem to have ratcheted up very recently," he notes. Nevertheless, he is bullish on Germany's "reasonable growth expectations in 2010" -- particularly with doubt creeping up about demand in the US and China in 2010.

The wildcard about Germany is the future of its FIT, for which O'Rourke notes a consensus of >20% cut in midyear for ground-mount systems and for roof-mount systems at year's end. "However, cuts of such magnitude would hardly devastate the German market in 2010," and would merely revert project ROIs back to historical norms, "and the German market would grow modestly in 2010.," he explains.

- Marching toward $1/Wp. Chatter suggests future module pricing (up to three years out) on large-scale projects of ~$1.25/Wp for c-Si modules, O'Rourke writes. This "presupposes some confidence in the "YingLi" manufacturing cost model approaching $1.00/Wp over the next couple of years."

- Best swimming is downstream. This year's Solar Power International had prominent participation from developers, O'Rourke noted. And for good reason -- as has been seen in recent M&A deals, solar firms are eager to establish a presence further down the chain to find the real touchpoint of demand, and thus build a sustainable pipeline of business and visibility. A recent example is MEMC's purchase of SunEdison; also, Chinese manufacturers are "frantically trying to partner downstream with developers" in foreign markets like the US, O'Rourke notes. "We believe this downstream approach is strategically sound, but many companies may have difficulty realizing benefits over the near term."

[lieberlong]

Solar panel supply glut past peak - research

LOS ANGELES, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The global glut of solar panels that has overwhelmed the industry for much of 2009 is past its peak as strong demand from Germany, the world's largest solar market, eats up extra supply, according to a report issued on Friday by industry research firm iSuppli.

Solar panels have piled up and prices have tumbled this year since the financial crisis and pullbacks in government incentives in Spain triggered a drop in demand.

The research group previously forecast the oversupply of panels to last through 2010, but said it estimates the glut could be resolved next year.

'Solar-panel installations in Germany began surging to record levels in July as prices for photovoltaic systems plunged,' said Henning Wicht, senior director of photovoltaics research for iSuppli, in a statement.

'This phenomenon has boosted the global solar panel business and mitigated the severe oversupply situation that has stung the industry throughout this year.'

The global supply of solar panels is expected to exceed demand by nearly 66 percent in 2009, down from the previous forecast in August of about 92 percent overage, iSuppli said.

The report echoes some positive forecasts given by solar power companies that have reported financial results recently.

Chinese solar panel maker Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd posted better-than-expected quarterly profit on Friday and said that demand in Europe is outstripping supply.

European renewable energy companies -- such as Germany's Q-Cells AG, one of the world's largest solar cell makers -- sounded upbeat for 2010 as cost cuts and an expected pickup in demand helped lift profits after a difficult year.

(Reporting by Laura Isensee) Keywords: SOLAR/PANELS

([e-mail]; Los Angeles Bureau [phone])


COPYRIGHT


Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.


© 2009 AFX News

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.386.663 von lieberlong am 13.11.09 22:53:48

In 2009 war iSuppli das wohl pessimistischste Analystenhaus:

17 April 2009
Market research firm iSuppli Corp, now expects a major decline in the photovoltaics industry in 2009, due to massive overcapacity, plunging prices and weak demand for solar as a consequence of the global economic recession. Worldwide PV system installations are forecasted to decline to 3.5GW in 2009, down 32% from 5.2GW in 2008. A 12% reduction in the average price per solar watt will also impact global PV revenues, which will drop by a massive 40.2% to $18.2 billion, down from $30.5 billion in 2008.


Am Ende wird sich wohl herausstellen, dass allein in Deutschland zwischen 3 und 4 GW installiert worden sind. iSuppli hat sich schwer geirrt, weil sie - uralter Fehler - einfach das gnadenlos extrapoliert haben, was Anfang 2009 gerade ablief.

Rogol lag zwar mit seiner ursprünglichen Prognose von 12 GW sicher auch daneben, aber: Der Wahrheit die Ehre! Alles in allem hatte Rogol mal wieder den besseren Riecher. (Was nicht heißen soll, dass ich ihn für 2010 ernst nehme... )

[R-BgO]

Hemlock: Thread: Corning - indirekt zu 25% an Hemlock beteiligt

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.387.392 von R-BgO am 14.11.09 10:09:38

Hi meinolf.

was willst du uns mit Hemlock sagen?!

Dass die fleißig Ihre Kapazitäten ausbauen, und damit die Nachfrage wohl deutlich wieder anziehen wird?

Oder, dass man in Hemlock investieren soll?
Frei nach dem "Siedler"-Prinzip, ein Brettspiel bei dem, wie im wahren Leben derjenige das meiste dazu gewinnt, der am Anfang am meisten hatte bzw. den besten Start erwischt hat.

-------------------------------------

Wo seht Ihr in naher Zukunft deutliche Kursgewinne?

Ich nirgends. Ich erwarte irgendwie wieder einen Crash.

Was meint Ihr?

[R-BgO]

China selects 294 solar power plants for subsidy
Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:44pm EST


BEIJING (Reuters) - China has identified 294 solar power projects with total generating capacity of 642 megawatts (MW) in its first pilot program.

Beijing has said it will subsidies at least half of the investment cost.

The capacity will be nearly 30 percent more than the minimum target Beijing set in July when it launched the unprecedented "golden sun" plan, which was part of China's drive to catch up in a global race to find alternatives to fossil fuels.

These projects were expected to cost around 20 billion yuan ($2.93 billion) and be ready for use in two or three years, the Ministry of Finance said in a release on its website (www.mof.gov.cn).

Of the projects, 232 with total generating capacity of 290 MW will be constructed by major industrial and commercial firms and the power output would be consumed by themselves.

Twenty-seven independent photovoltaic power generating projects, with total capacity of 46 MW, will be built in remote regions that have no power supply. The projects were expected to generate enough power to meet demand for more than 300,000 residents in the regions.

The remaining 35 projects, with total capacity of 306 MW, would be utility-scale plants, whose power output would be fed into grid networks.

The finance ministry also laid out specific price and quality requirements for parts and components in the qualified solar power projects, but it did not provide project names or where they are located.

The Ministry of Finance had said the government would subsidies 50 percent of investment for solar power projects as well as relevant power transmission and distribution systems that connect to grid networks, 70 percent of cost for independent solar projects in powerless regions.

In March, the ministry said it would provide 20 yuan per watt peak (Wp) of subsidy for solar projects attached to buildings that have capacity of more than 50 kilowatt peak, which could cut the power generating cost by around half to about 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

China is expected to raise its 2020 solar power generation target more than fivefold to at least 10 gigawatts (GW). With incentives, analysts expect over 2 GW in new solar capacity will be installed as early as 2011, up from just over 100 MW in 2008.

China has more than 800 GW of power generating capacity, and around three quarters of them are fired by coal.

[R-BgO]

China-based poly-Si makers expected to reduce to 5-7 in 2010

Staff reporter, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 27 November 2009]

Of the 20-30 poly-Si material makers currently in China, about half have completely, partially or intermittently stopped production and the number is on the rise. Only five to seven companies are expected to survive through 2010, according to Taiwan industry sources citing China-based market analysts as indicating.

According to a Chinese-language xinhuanet report, the China government plans to restrict domestic overcapacity of poly-Si by increasing requirements and standards for allowing new makers to enter the market.

In addition, the government plans to indirectly encourage large-scale makers to merge with smaller makers which are significantly less competitive in terms of financial strength, technology and product quality, the industry sources pointed out.

However, large-scale makers would rather invest to expand their existing production capacities than acquire small makers, because equipment and technologies would be difficult, or in some cases unable, to be integrated with existing production flows, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/editors_blog/_a/solar_market_share_sh…

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/photon_magazine_survey_puts_g…


Photon Magazine survey puts German PV installations as high as 4GW
04 December 2009 | By Mark Osborne | News > Market Watch

*As 2009 draws to an end, a new annual survey undertaken by Photon Magazine, based on a sample of 119 grid operators, as well as information from inverter manufacturers, puts the PV installations in Germany at between 3GW and 4GW for the year. The figure is much higher than Germany’s Federal Environment Ministry estimates as well as those from major system integrator Phoenix Solar, however inline with Photon Consulting’s most recent forecast of 3.85GW. Total installed PV power could reach the 10GW mark in Germany by the end of the year and could reach 2% of Germany’s electricity production in 2011.

However, on a more controversial point Photon believes that the German feed-in tariff should actually be lowered more than is currently planned as production costs have fallen dramatically. This will result in the cost of solar being artificially higher than it needs to be and therefore potentially damage future adoption.

“The high growth statistics are proof of the extent to which PV is underestimated....

[Slurry]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.515.359 von R-BgO am 05.12.09 16:46:22

Netzparität in Deutschland erreicht?

Liebe Sonnenanbeter,

mein Renditemodell sagt mir dass die Netzparität in Deutschland bei einem Systempreis von etwa €2,4/Wp erreicht sein müsste, weil somit ein durchschnittlicher Elektrizitätspreis von etwa 0,239 €/kWh resultiert (voraussichtlicher E-Preis für Haushaltsstrom 2010).

Nun geistern jedoch schon die ersten Angebote um diesen Preis oder sogar darunter im Markt herum:

http://www.photovoltaikforum.com/angebote-f41/bitte-um-abgeb…

Heisst das, das wir schon die Netzparität in Deutschland ausrufen können?

Kennt sich da jemand aus?

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.546.965 von Slurry am 10.12.09 20:24:42

Netzparität in Deutschland bei einem Systempreis von etwa €2,4/Wp erreicht sein müsste, weil somit ein durchschnittlicher Elektrizitätspreis von etwa 0,239 €/kWh resultiert (voraussichtlicher E-Preis für Haushaltsstrom 2010).

Naja, wenn dem so wäre, dann hätten wir die Netzparität... Aber ich würde erst einmal Deine Annahmen hinterfragen:
- Von welcher Finanzierung bzw. Renditeerwartung bist Du ausgegangen?
- Von welcher Sonneneinstrahlung bist Du ausgegangen?
- Welche Anlagengröße? Bei kleineren Anlagen auf dem Hausdach dürftest Du mit 2,4 Euro/Watt nicht auskommen
- Hast Du auch jeweils Brutto- oder Nettopreise gegenübergestellt? Die 2,4 Euro/Watt sind ja ziemlich sicher der Nettopreis. Aber beim Strompreis, hast Du da nicht evtl. den Bruttopreis genommen (23,9 Cent/kWh als Nettopreis kommt mir höher vor, als der deutsche Durchschnitt sein dürfte, den ich jetzt eher bei 20-22 Cent vermuten würde; habe aber auch gerade keine echte Vergleichszahl zur Hand)?

[R-BgO]

Poly-Si suppliers offer one-year contract quotes at US$55/kg, say Taiwan makers

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 18 December 2009]

Some international suppliers of polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) are offering one-year contract quotes of about US$55/kg for 2010, approximately the same as current spot prices, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The one-year contract prices are much lower than the quotes of US$60-70/kg for long-term supply contracts signed previously, the sources said.

Some Taiwan-based solar cell makers expect short-term poly-Si contract quotes to fall to US$45-50/kg in 2010, the sources indicated. However, Taiwan-based solar wafer makers do not expect this to happen, judging from international poly-Si suppliers' optimism about the market demand, the sources noted.

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/chip_shots/_a/capacity_conundrum_are_…

[Slurry]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.558.308 von JoergP am 13.12.09 11:06:28

Hallo Jörg,

-Finanzierung 4%, Eigenkapitalrendite 7%, 80/20 Verhältnis
-950 kWh/kWp Ertrag
-Gösse:5kW
-Durchschnittlicher Haushaltstrom von 22,8 €cent in 2009 + 6% Erhöhung für 2010

http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Navigation/Energie/energiestatistike…

Bei welchem Systempreis würdest Du die Grid-Parity Schwelle sehen?

Gruss,

Slurry

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.605.878 von Slurry am 20.12.09 19:38:53

Na, das sind doch nachvollziehbare und zienlich vernünftige Angaben
Auf der BMWI-Seite sind die Stromkosten inkl. MWSt. angegeben. Das sind 19%... also um soviel müssten die PV-Anlagen noch billiger werden.

Und dass Du relativ kleine 5kW-Anlagen zu den von Dir angegebenen 2,4 €/W bekommst, würde ich auch noch für den glücklichen Einzelfall halten...

Also insofern sehe ich die Netzparität noch nicht ganz so nah, wie Du es dargestellt hattest.

[tonycat]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.616.625 von JoergP am 22.12.09 13:28:03

Stimme JoergP im Prinzip zu. Hervorzuheben ist aber, daß für den Endnutzer (der keine Kabel, Überspannungsleitungen, Verwaltungskosten der Konzerne usw. Kosten hat) die Netzparität greifbar nahe ist, bzw. schon in glücklichen Einzelfällen da ist. Also, wie schon lange verkündet: 2011-2012 haben wir Solarstrom für Eigenverbrauch "satt", soll heißen, jeder der noch TAGSÜBER Strom verbraucht und über 20 cents zahlt muß einigermaßen blöd (oder verschattet oder halt Kopflos (Dachlos) sein...

Denn: bei günstigen Umständen sind jetzt schon Systempreise von unter 2 Euro pro Watt möglich, wie gesagt: (sehr) günstige Umstände...(z.B. die reinen Siliziummodule sind schon für unter 1,20 Euro pro Watt erhältlich (sorry, Containerpreise, das ist eine ganze Stange Geld...).

Danach: sollte man sich noch über die Lastverteilung (welchen Strom bei Wolken/nachts Gedanken machen)...

[R-BgO]

China-based solar cell makers to hike capacity by 2GWp in 1H10, Taiwan-based makers by 1.5GWp in 2010

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 25 December 2009]

China-based makers of crystalline silicon solar cells plan to expand their production capacities by about 2GWp in aggregate in the first half of 2010, while Taiwan-based makers are also planning to increase capacity by about 1.5GWp during the whole of the year, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The estimate of expansion in China is calculated from orders for production equipment set to be installed in the first half of the year, based on information collected by market sources in China, the sources pointed out.

Taiwan-based makers' planned capacity expansion consists of 400MWp by Motech Industries, 250MWp by Gintech Energy, 180MWp by E-Ton Solar Tech, 360MWp by Neo Solar Power, 100-118MWp by Solartech Energy and 200-220MWp by DelSolar, the sources indicated.

The capacity expansions in China and Taiwan are based on optimism for global demand in 2010 and expected increases in Asia-based makers' global market share from 2009 due to lower production costs compared to competitors in Europe, the US and Japan, the sources explained.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan-based suppliers cut PV module prices to 1.3-1.4 euro/watt

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 22 December 2009]

Some Taiwan-based suppliers of photovoltaic (PV) modules, due to decreasing demand in the Europe market, have reduced their quotes by 6.7-10.3% from 1.45-1.5 euro/watt to 1.3-1.4 euro/watt to clear inventories, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 36.288.379 von meinolf67 am 01.01.09 14:00:29

zur Erinnerung mal die Prognosen einiger Threadteilnehmer vom Beginn des Jahres:

meinolf67
1) Wir werden Konsolidierung sehen; 30% aller Up&Midstream-Player scheiden aus dem Markt aus

2) Downstream Anbieter erleben einen warmen Regen; Buden wie Conergy, Centrosolar, Phoenix,... scheiben Rekordergebnisse

3) umg-SI wird mainstream; Q-Cells, CSIQ, TSL, Photowatt, BP liefern große Mengen solcher Module

4) Timminco wird profitabel

5) c-Si Module kosten Ende 2009 noch $2,00. Der Systempreis beträgt je nach Größe des Projekts $2,50-$3,50. Der Dollar steht bei 1,80 zum Euro. Damit kann man in Deutschland Systeme für unter 2 Euro/Wp kriegen. Mit 5% Abschreibung und 4% langfristigen Zinsen "kostet" die kWh 8bei 1.000 kWh/kWpxJahr) für den Selbsterzeuger dann noch 14c.

SLGramann
1.) 2009 wird es mehr Siliziumproduktioskapazitäten geben, als gebraucht wird. (nämlich ca. 100.000 Tonnen Kapazität bei ca. 60.000 Tonnen Nachfrage)

2.) Dementsprechend bekommen wir einen sehr viel niedrigeren Siliziumpreis von bis zu 40 Dollar / Kilo für schlechtere Qualität.

3.) Samsung steigt ins Geschäft ein, möglicherweise durch eine große Übernahme.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.639.937 von R-BgO am 29.12.09 10:19:36

das waren die Postings 384 und 385;

wie gut waren die Prognosen?

1) null Punkte; Konsolidierung hat bisher praktisch nicht stattgefunden

2) ein viertel Punkt; die downstream-Leute profitieren zwar von geringeren Preisen, litten aber unter dem Preisverfall; kann sein, daß es am Ende sogar ein halber oder dreiviertel Punkt wird, da die Q4-Zahlen noch ausstehen

3) VOLL daneben; umg-Si stirbt aus

4) VOLL danben; Timminco stirbt auch aus (wahrscheinlich)

5) un point; Modulpreis dürfte bereits unter 2$ liegen

=> bis auf 5) scheint meinolf67 in die falsche Richtung geguckt zu haben und dürfte von 2009 böse überrascht worden sein...


1) ein Punkt; Si dürfte nicht mehr knapp sein; neben den etablierten Hemlock, Wacker, REC, Toku, MEMC sind GCL und OCI im Mainstream angekommen

2) ein Punkt; SI-Spot derzeit bei mid-50$

3) ein Punkt; Samsung fährt gerade eine 300MW-Linie hoch

=>Respekt an SLGramann!

Wer traut sich, neue Prognosen abzugeben?

[SLGramann]

Ich hatte ja das kleine Prognosespiel schon ganz vergessen!

Ich steh nicht mehr so im Stoff, wie vor einem Jahr, aber ich riskiere mal fünf neue Punkte:

1.) In Deutschland explodiert der Zubau, weil die Regierung das EEG nicht schnell und nicht radikal genug ändert. In 2010 werden deshalb 9 GW installiert. Die Photovoltaik verliert in der Folge ihr positives Image in der Bevölkerung. 2011 wird ein Deckel eingeführt.

2.) Sharp bekommt bis Ende 2010 die TF-Produktion in Sakai in den Griff und beginnt zunehmend, FSLR im "Kraftwerkssegment" unter Druck zu setzen. Die fetten Jahre für FSLR gehen - nicht nur wegen Sharp - definitiv zu Ende.

3.) GCL verkündet spätestens im 2. HJ 2010 den massiven Einstieg in die Zell- und Modulfertigung, möglicherweise durch eine Übernahme oder eine Fusion, die der Aufreger für die Branche sein wird.

4.) Zum Jahresende 2010 hin wird klar, dass die Überkapazitäten vollkommen irrsinnige Dimensionen angenommen haben. Die Branche setzt den Helm auf und wartet schauernd auf die Jahre 2011 bis 2013, in denen sich die 5 Unternehmen herauskristallisieren werden, die künftig den Markt beherrschen werden.

5.) Gemessen am PPVX-Index werden PV-Investoren in 2010 kein Geld verdienen.

Viele Grüße!

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.641.003 von SLGramann am 29.12.09 13:20:54

Gratulation an SLGramann.

Mit etwas mehr Ahnung und Überblick als letztes Jahr schliesse ich mich den Szenarien für 2010 an. Den Anlagenboom in 2010 in D sehe ich bestätigt und das Zaudern der Politik als erwartungsgemäß.

Das Aufsetzen der Helme schein eine weit verbreitete Vision zu sein. Auch hier sieht man man mal wieder das Übertreibungen, Untertreobungen zeitlich, wie auch in Zahlen immer wieder vorkommen.

Ich warte ja immer noch auf Nanosolar, leistungsstarke Energienetze ala Desertec und auf energieautarke Landkreise und Kommunen.

Auf einen Quantensprung in der Speichertechnologie warte ich hingegen nicht mehr.


Prognosen für 2010:
Die Finanzkriese zeigt sich wieder deutlich im Westen.
Auswirkung auf EE? k.A.

[Slurry]

Hier meine 5 Wahrsagungen:

1) First solar verschafft sich durch eine Akquisition Zugang zu CIGS-Technologie.

2) First Solar schliesst sowohl im mittleren Osten wie auch in Indien jeweils deals für GW-Kraftwerke ab.

3) Q-Cells steigt als letzter cell pure-play in das c-Si Modulgeschäft ein.

3) Japan wird zum zweitgrössten Markt in 2010, mit > 1GW an Zubau

4) Modulpreise steigen bis Mitte 2010 deutlich an und fallen danach bis Ende 2010 leicht ab (bleiben aber über Anfangsniveau 2010).

Bin gespannt was passiert

[tonycat]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.653.827 von Slurry am 01.01.10 22:50:48

Kann ich alles gut nachvollziehen, nur daß die Modulpreise (leicht) steigen halte ich für äußerst unwahrscheinlich:
a) massiver (Absatz)Druck aus China
b) erheblicher neuer Druck durch neue Anbieter (oft erwähnt Nanosolar z.B., aber es gibt Dutzende, wenn nicht annähernd Hunderte neue Hersteller/Produktionslinien - überall auf der Welt - die müssen alle verkaufen (oder selber Anlagen betreiben).

Zusätzlich: da es meines erachtens immer noch diverse Engpäße (z.B. bei den Wechselrichtern gibt) hat das folgende Logik zu folgende: die zuvielen Module streiten sich quasi um die wenigen Wechselrichter: ergo: die Hersteller/Händler die etwas günstiger anbieten werden zu den Wechselrichtern finden...

Also, letztendlich bleiben für mich folgende große Fragen:
Welche Hersteller schaffen es Absatzsteigerungen hinzulegen auf Märkten OHNE (hohe) Einspeisevergütungen -> Netzparität...Boom bis Strom satt...

Welche Technologie wird sich in Zukunft als die beste Kombination aus Effizient (hoher Wirkungsgrad) und billig (günstige Anlagenkosten pro kwP) herausbilden?

Also, für die Kenner gebe ich mal folgende Kampfpreisansagen:
a-si Dünnschicht-Module wird man innerhalb der nächsten 12 Monate für unter 75 Euro-cents/pro Watt kaufen können (-> Wirkungsgrad um/unter 6%). Relativ Gute c-Si Polyzellen (ca. 14,5% Wirkungsgrad) wird man für unter 1,10 Euro kaufen können (Preisangaben gültig ab einen Container/LKW direkt vom Hersteller...). Da kann man sich ja ausmalen, was auf dem Markt abgehen wird bzw. welcher Hersteller noch etwas verdienen wird.
Also ganz im Sinne von SLGraham: 9 GW nur in Deutschland - wow! aber welcher Aktionär verdient - im Schnitt (Index der Solarwerte) wohl kaum einer.

Zu mir persönlich: ich habe mir ordentlich die Finger verbrannt mit Q-Cells Aktien (noch im Depot) und ordentlich verdient (aber zusammen weniger als der Verlust mit Q-Cells) mit Ersol und First Solar und bin jetzt umgestiegen (außer Q-Cells...) von Aktionär zu Anlagenbetreiber (und Direktimport von Modulen, ja, ich habe schon a-si für unter 1 Euro gekauft...) und suche noch Dächer (bin ein schlechter Verkäufer und (noch) nicht hauptberuflich im Solar und schon gar nicht im Aktienbusiness...).

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.655.785 von tonycat am 03.01.10 01:34:26

Hi tony,

habe mich im Dezember auch von allen noch vorhandenen midstream-Positionen getrennt (Trina, Suntech, Yingli).

Andererseits habe ich Betreiber gesammelt und inzwischen folgende Posi's (nicht immer ganz sortenrein) im Depot:

Solarparc
Aerowatt
Terni Energia
Kerself
Voltalia
Edisun Power
Alerion Cleanpower
ErgyCapital
EDF Energies Nouvelles
Iberdrola Renovables
Capital Stage
Colexon
S.A.G. Solarstrom

Dazu kommen noch als größte Einzelposi 5N Plus und ein Restbestand Sunpower.

Als Solar-affin halte ich Posi's in MEMC, Wacker, Ceradyne und Cookson.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.655.785 von tonycat am 03.01.10 01:34:26

zu den Preisen:

über Solarplaza werden seit geraumer Zeit a-Si Module für 1$ = 70 eurocent angeboten.

mit den "Polyzellen" meinst Du doch Module, oder?

[R-BgO]

...mit eigenen Prognosen tue ich mich extrem schwer; stattdessen habe ich eher Fragen:

1) Wie passen die beobachteten Angebotsengpässe (STP, TSL, YGE bis weit in den Sommer hinein "ausverkauft") mit den enormen (Über?)-Kapazitäten zusammen? Liegt das daran, daß nur bankable-Module verkauft werden können? Oder handelt es sich um klassisches double&triple-ordering?

2) Wie werden sich die außereuropäischen Märkte
-USA, Kanada
-China, Indien, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Australien, Indonesien, Thailand, Bangladesch, Brunei
-Türkei, Israel, VAE, Saudi-Arabien, Jordanien
-Marokko, Senegal, Südafrika, Tunesien
-Mexiko, Brasilien, Peru, Uruguay, Kolumbien
(zu allen diesen habe ich in 2009 von konkreten Projekten gelesen) entwickeln?

In 2008 (Spanien) und 2009 (Deutschland) war es genug, DEN Hauptmarkt richtig zu prognostizieren, um eine gute Basis für Entscheidungen zu haben. Wird das so bleiben? Wenn ja, welches ist der Hauptmarkt (lt.SLG: Deutschland)? Oder wird die Summe der vielen neuen Märkte bedeutender?

3) Auf welcher Basis wird sogar noch in weitere Kapazitätssteigerungen (siehe #859) investiert? Was wissen die, was ich übersehe?


Fazit:

Mein Bauch sagt, daß wir immer noch Überkapazitäten haben und daß daraus folgt, daß man als Hersteller nur schwer seine Kapitalkosten wird verdienen können. Also Finger weg von solchen Aktien. Ausnahme davon ist evtl. FirstSolar, denen ich weiter zutraue, daß sie Ihre Kapitalkosten verdienen; da ist es aber ein Bewertungsproblem.


...jetzt aber doch noch ein paar

Prognosen:

a) c-Si Modulpreise sinken im Laufe des Jahres auf unter $1,50
b) SOLON geht den Conergy-Weg
c) "Second-" und "Third-"Solar beginnen, sich herauszukristallisieren (Kandidaten: Showa, Sharp, Solibro)
d) Solyndra wird blockbuster oder flame-out
e) Die EEG-Vergütung wird auf 20c für Aufdach und 10c für Freilandanlagen gesenkt; alternativ wird das EEG -für PV- ganz gestrichen

[tonycat]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.655.940 von R-BgO am 03.01.10 10:10:12

Ja, scheint mir auch plausibel, die erste Posi: solarparc habe ich auch noch im Depot. Systaic würde ich mir auch mal genauer anschauen...
70 cent habe ich auch schon gesehen (angeboten) bekommen, daß waren aber Module mit einer Leistung von nur 50 Watt (ungerahmt), da kommt recht wenig Strom raus...(auch noch größer als 1 qm).

Klar, ich meinte poly-sic Module (nicht zellen), momentan geht es second hand (vom Importeur, nicht als Importeur) runter bis auf ca. 1,30 Euro/Watt...(teilweise Hersteller mit "Namen" (keine der bekannten 3/4), teilweise recht neue junge chinesische Hersteller.

[R-BgO]

China official says 2009 poly-Si production short of domestic demand, reports paper

Lisa Tsai, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Monday 4 January 2010]

Producers of poly-Si in China turned out an estimated 15,000 metric tons in total in 2009, 40-50% lower than estimated domestic demand of 25,000-30,000MT, according to a Chinese-language Hong Kong Business Times report which cited deputy director-general Shi Li-shan for the New Energy Department under the National Energy Administration as indicating.

While a total annual poly-Si capacity of 80,000MT is planned to be established in China, only 55% (44,000MT) has been, or will be, set up, and only 25.8% has come into use, the report pointed out. As of the end of September 2009, there were fewer than 20 poly-Si producers with a total annual capacity of about 19,700MT in China, the report indicated.

[R-BgO]

ist das SI?:

Quelle Solarplaza:
"Origin and exwks Korea. 9N 100% P-Type 100% High Res. >0.5 ohm-cm. No Quartz, Avg size > 3cm*3cm. Available 10 tons. Contract available 10 tons per month. Price USD 24/kg TT 5 days after inspection.

December 30, 2009
Lead number: 200912031
Location: Korea, Republic Of"

[R-BgO]

January 4, 2010, 09:10 (CET)

EGP, Sharp and STMicroelectronics Sign Agreement for the Largest Photovoltaic-Panel Manufacturing Plant in Italy
Today, Enel Green Power, Sharp and STMicroelectronics signed an agreement for the manufacture of triple-junction thin-film photovoltaic panels in Italy. At the same time, Enel Green Power and Sharp signed a further agreement to jointly develop solar farms.

Today's agreement regarding the photovoltaic panel factory follows the Memorandum of Understanding signed in May 2008 by Enel Green Power and Sharp. STMicroelectronics has joined this strategic partnership.

This agreement marks the first time that three global technology and industrial powerhouses have joined together in an equal partnership to contribute their unique value-add to the solar industry. It brings together Enel Green Power, with its international market development and project management know-how; Sharp, and its exclusive triple-junction thin-film technology, which will be operational in the mother plant in Sakai, Japan as of spring 2010; and STMicroelectronics, with its manufacturing capacity, skills and resources in highly advanced, hi-tech sectors such as microelectronics.

The factory, located in Catania in the existing M6 facility to be contributed by STMicroelectronics, is expected to have an initial production capacity of 160 MW per year. The plant's capacity is targeted to be gradually increased to 480 MW per year over the next years and right from its start will represent the single most important production facility for solar panels in Italy. Photovoltaic panel manufacturing at the Catania plant is expected to start at the beginning of 2011.

The project of 160 MW will require a total investment of 320 Million euros and will be funded by a combination of equity, state grants and project financing with no recourse to the Joint Venture's shareholders beyond their quota in the Joint Venture. Each partner will subscribe one third of the equity - an expected contribution up to 70 million Euros each, either in cash or in-kind - and will hold one third of the shares in the new Joint Venture Company.

The factory output will be used to serve the most attractive solar markets in the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region with a particular focus on the Mediterranean area. In this region, Enel Green Power and Sharp already have important sales networks and also plan to jointly develop solar farms. Enel.si, the Enel Green Power company specializing in the installation of photovoltaic systems in the retail market, will also participate in the marketing effort, offering panels directly and through its franchisee network of over 500 qualified installers in Italy.

Enel Green Power and Sharp have signed an additional agreement aimed at the creation of an equal joint venture to develop solar farms. The goal is to install cumulative capacity at a level of 500 MW by the end of 2016, making use of the photovoltaic panels manufactured at the Catania factory. The effectiveness of the agreements signed by the parties is conditional upon the clearance released by the relevant authorities concerned.

Triple-junction thin-film photovoltaic panels are particularly suitable for medium and large-scale photovoltaic power generation. Compared to ordinary silicon solar panels, the triple-junction thin-film photovoltaic modules are able to maintain a very high level of energy conversion efficiency even in very hot climates. Thanks to their lower silicon content, these modules are also less exposed to raw silicon price volatility.

Catania represents an ideal location as it takes full advantage of an existing semiconductor plant and related facilities as well as of very important workforce skilled in silicon-based manufacturing. In addition, Catania hosts Conphoebus, an Enel research center fully dedicated to renewable sources, solar in particular, and energy savings. Moreover, Sicily is one of the key regions in the Mediterranean area for the development of solar farms and provides a unique location for all logistics necessary to reach the neighboring markets.

[Slurry]

China-based solar wafer makers may expand total capacity by over 40GWp in 2010


Latest news
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 6 January 2010]

China-based makers of solar-grade crystalline silicon wafers plan to expand their production capacities in 2010 due to an expected large increase in domestic demand for PV systems. The total additional capacity is likely to exceed 40GWp in equivalent, according to industry sources in Taiwan citing China-based makers.

Makers originally planned to expand annual capacities by 30GWp in total, but have upward adjusted their expansion targets because the China government has offered incentives for PV system installations and is expected to set feed-in tariffs in 2010, the sources pointed out.

Of the more than 40GWp new capacity, 10GWp will be set up by LDK Solar, currently the global largest maker of poly-Si wafers, and 20GWp by the Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development, a main poly-Si material maker which is stepping into wafer production, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.679.793 von Slurry am 06.01.10 23:09:41

Da MUSS überall eine Null zuviel dran sein.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.680.583 von R-BgO am 07.01.10 09:04:37

mindestens.
Oder der Artikel ist für das Jahr 2015 bestimmt?!
Oder die Chinesen haben uns was verschwiegen.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.682.877 von UWR_Kerl am 07.01.10 13:13:04

P.S.: Hatten heute ne Photon in der Post in CHINESISCH. Ein Zeichen!?

[R-BgO]

China makers developing UMG-Si, sources in Taiwan say

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 8 January 2010]

Some players in China's solar industry are developing upgraded metallurgical grade silicon (UMG-Si), which is cheaper to produce than polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) made using the currently mainstream Siemens process, according to industry sources in Taiwan. Those players include major poly-Si makers and others planning to step into poly-Si production.

The purity of UMG-Si is lower than poly-Si. But prices for poly-Si based on Siemens process have continually decreased to levels with not much room for further drops, thus UMG-Si is becoming important due to its lower production cost, the sources indicated.

[Slurry]

China makers hike spot prices for 6-inch solar-grade poly-Si wafers

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 12 January 2010]

Major China-based solar wafer makers have raised their spot quotes for 6-inch polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) wafers by 5.1-5.3% from US$2.85-2.9 to US$3.0-3.05, as order volumes have exceeded their capacities, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Taiwan-based competitors Sino-American Silicon Products, Wafer Works, Green Energy Technology and Danen Technology are also experiencing tight capacities because of strong demand, but they have not raised their spot quotes, which are currently at US$3.1-3.3 for 6-inch poly-Si wafers, the sources said. However, it is uncertain whether they will follow suit by hiking prices later, the sources indicated.

Currently, supply of 6-inch poly-Si wafers as well as 5- and 6-inch monocrystalline silicon wafers is insufficient to meet demand from Taiwan-based solar cell makers and some of their China-based competitors, the sources said. China-based wafer maker Solargiga Energy has indicated that its capacity is currently 30-50% short of the total order volume, the sources noted.

[SLGramann]

So, die EEG-Novelle kommt - mit 3 Monaten Verspätung - langsam ins Rollen. Da die Branche weltweit am deutschen Markt hängt, dokumentiere ich hier sogar den Status "Gerüchte":

Aus der Süddeutschen:

Der Bund könnte die Einspeisevergütung schon im April deutlich einschränken, erfuhr die Süddeutsche Zeitung. Bislang hatte die Branche mit einem Start frühestens im Sommer gerechnet. Auch die Höhe der Einschnitte könnte die Hersteller empfindlich treffen: Röttgen prüfe eine einmalige Senkung von "etwas unter 20 Prozent".


Beschleunige sich der von der hohen Förderung ausgelöste Boom beim Bau neuer Anlagen in diesem Jahr, könnten Einschnitte Anfang 2011 noch einmal verschärft werden. Werden innerhalb eines Jahres mehr als 3000 Megawatt neu installiert, werden weitere 2,5 Prozentpunkte gekürzt.

Bei mehr als 3500 Megawatt sollen es fünf Prozentpunkte sein. Vertreter der Solarbranche wollten sich dazu nicht äußern. Auch eine Sprecherin des Ministeriums kommentierte die Angaben nicht. Es gebe noch keine Entscheidung, sagte sie.

------------------

Ich gehe davon aus, dass die 2,5% und die 5% zu der normalen Degression hinzukommen.

Käme zum April eine Senkung um 15 bis 20% wäre meiner Meinung nach mein Szenario, wonach in Deutschland in 2010 um die 9 GW installiert werden, nicht in Gefahr.

Was die Bundesregierung einfach nicht versteht, ist, welche Dynamik die Kostensenkung in der Branche hat, nachdem der Si-Engpass erledigt ist.

Langfristig ist wichtig, dass die Regierung implizit bestätigt, dass ein Zubau von mehr als 3 bis 3,5 GW / Jahr in Deutschland nicht akzeptabel ist. Das war schon immer "die Linie" - auch als Gabriel noch das BMU geführt hat. Es haben nur manche geglaubt, man müsse entsprechende Positionspapiere nicht ernst nehmen.

Weil das jetzt diskutierte Instrument einer einmaligen Absenkung um 17%(?) ungeeignet ist, dass 3,5 GW-Ziel zu erreichen, müsste es in 2011 die nächste Novelle geben - oder die jetzige Novelle wird flexibler und intelligenter, als bisher bekannt.

Wie auch immer: Da Deutschland in den Jahren 2011 ff seinen Markt auf die eine oder andere Weise bei ca. 3,5 GW deckeln wird, sollte sich die Branche überlegen, wo sie dann mit ihren 30 bis 50 GW Kapazitäten hin will. Kann die "grid-parity" wirklich die PV-Welt retten? Da hab ich Zweifel.

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.744.404 von SLGramann am 15.01.10 13:07:37

Naja, ich weiss nicht. Zum April 15% Senkung wäre schon ziemlich heftig. Das wären dann innerhalb von 3 Monaten in der Summe 25% Senkung. Ich denke, damit würde der deutsche Markt ziemlich zum Erliegen kommen.

So kurzfristig so stark zu senken, hätte dann auch noch den Nachteil, dass jetzt 3 Monate lang jeder versucht noch möglichst viel zu installieren, durch die Nachfrage die Anlagenpreise kurzfristig nach oben schiessen, kurzfristig Personal gebraucht wird, die Installation quick and dirty gemacht wird, so dass die Betreiber mit ihren Anlagen auch erst mal noch Zusatzaufwand haben - und dann die Katerstimmung danach allerorten noch extremer wird.

[SLGramann]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.748.193 von JoergP am 15.01.10 19:40:56

Joerg, die Gesamtsenkung wäre heftig, keine Frage. Aber es ist m.E. sehr viel Luft in den Preisen. Der deutsche Markt ist Ende 2009 vollkommen überhitzt gewesen und das Preisniveau war meiner Meinung nach zum Schluss schon wieder das eines Verkäufermarktes. Die Bruttomargen der Chinesen dürften wohl allgemein wieder über 25% liegen. Und was Handel und Installateure dann noch draufgeschlagen haben, war meiner Meinung nach sehr fett.

Ich denke, die Chinesen können in 2010 ihre Module auch für 1,60 Dollar verkaufen und überleben. Das sind etwa 1,10 Euro. Systempreise von 2.000 Euro / kW sollten damit machbar sein. Klar wird den Leuten mit so einer Ansage ziemlich in den Hintern getreten, aber die können das ab imo.

Du hast recht, mit dem Chaos, das dann bald losgehen wird. Deshalb sollte man zum 01.04. mit der Einspeisevergütung runter. Im ersten Quartal kann ja gar nicht mehr so viel passieren. Wenn der 01.07. die deadline würde, wäre in Q2 der Teufel los.

[R-BgO]

Solar Stocks Extend Losses On Reports Of Big German Subsidy Cuts

By Eric Savitz

The solar sector is getting hammered for the second straight day on reports that Germany will be cutting its feed-in tariff for solar installation more aggressively - and sooner - than the Street has been anticipating.

As I noted yesterday, Reuters reported that Germany is now expected to cuts its FIT by 16%-17% in April; while a cut has been widely expected, the consensus view is that it would be smaller in size and come later in the year. Note that Germany is by far the world’s largest market for solar products, due largely to the generous FIT.

A number of analysts have weighed in the situation this morning, and several say their own sources confirm the Reuters report.

* Collins Stewart analyst Dan Ries writes that other news sources, including solar industry publication Photon International, also are indicating a cut in the 16%-17% range coming on or near April 1. “Our contacts indicate that over the past week the tone of government officials has gotten harsher than what had been the case in December,” he writes in a note, “with many now pointing to a one-time FIT cut of 15%-17%.” He adds that if the FIT occurs in April, it will have “a significant negative impact” on Q2 ASPs in the solar sector. Due to a “pull-in effect” ahead of anticipated subsidy cuts later in the year, he says, Q2 demand was tracking ti be very strong, with module ASPs flat to up from Q1. But if the FIT is cut in April, he says, the strong Q2 would be negated, with module prices in the $1.50-$1.60 range, rather than the $1.80-$1.83 he had been expecting.

* Soleil Securities analyst Paul Lemming writes that the changes being discussed would be “game changing.” (And not in a good way.) He notes that in addition to the FIT cut noted above, there is talk that Germany could cut the subsidy again once installations top 3 GW - roughly the level reached in 2009. In short, he says the government wants to stop the growth of PV installations, much as the Spanish government did in 2008, a move which devastated the solar sector. Over the last 5-6 months, he notes, the German market has been running at an annualized rate approaching 6 GW a year. “Rolling the annualized installation rates back toward a 3 GW per year number will significantly worsen the already unfavorable supply/demand imbalance and will have a very large negative impact on the solar industry,” he writes.

Most of the major solar stocks today are down 3%-5%, with the China-based companies down the most.

[R-BgO]

Optimist:


European Solar Subsidy Slashing: Bad News for Investors? 12 comments
by: The Green Investor January 14, 2010 | about: FSLR / TAN / TSL

The French just announced they were slashing their solar subsidies by 24%, from 55 to 42 (Euro) cents. France is viewed as an important growth market for solar, but it still only represents a tiny fraction (less than 3%) of the world market. It also appears that the French feed-in tariff, claiming to be the highest in the world, was overly generous and caused applications to snowball from an average of about 150 per day to over 3,000, creating an artificial solar bubble. The French subsidy cut relates strictly to rooftop photovoltaic (PV) applications, and companies like First Solar (FSLR) are expected to be mostly unaffected as they have been focusing on ground-based, utility-scale deployments.

What solar companies and solar company investors are really worried about is what Germany will do. After Spain cut their solar incentives drastically, Germany became the largest solar world market.

News from Germany, where PV companies and consumer lobby groups are meeting with government representatives, indicates that the negotiations are converging on moderate cuts which would largely be offset by manufacturing cost reductions. It is important to remember how important the solar photovoltaics industry is in Germany: they are not only the world’s largest market but they produce more than half the world’s solar panels, with local employment approaching 100,000. Politicians will be leery to kill this economically growing segment, even if the popular support is waning for expensive government subsidies.

In all likelihood, the German and European solar markets will continue to grow but at slower rates, due to reduced incentives, while China and the U.S. are the emerging solar markets with rising subsidies and mandated Renewable Portfolio Standards (which dictate how much of a utility’s power mix must come from renewables).

As we outlined in our earlier article “Picking Solar Energy Winners”, we are still very bullish for solar in general, with sector index investments like the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF (TAN), but in particular for the few companies leading the cost/watt reductions, such as First Solar and Trina Solar (TSL), which will continue to thrive and profit in this environment, unlike many marginal manufacturers.

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/editors_blog/_a/2009_pv_module_market…

[SLGramann]

Es wird konkreter:


20. Januar 2010 Die Förderung neuer Solaranlagen soll von April an weiter drastisch eingeschränkt werden. Dabei sollen eine Staffelung je nach Umfang der Neuinstallationen eingeführt und bei Dachanlagen Vorteile für den Eigenverbrauch erreicht werden, erläuterte Bundesumweltminister Norbert Röttgen (CDU) seine Gesetzespläne. Auf die seit Jahresbeginn geltende Förderreduktion von 9 Prozent für Neuanlagen sollen von April an einmalig 15 Prozentpunkte Abschlag hinzukommen. Die Prognose für Neuinstallationen geht für dieses Jahr von 3000 Megawatt aus.

Damit ergibt sich den Plänen zufolge eine weitere Reduzierung der Förderung um 2,5 Prozent ab 3500 Megawatt und um weitere 2,5 Prozent bei jeder Erhöhung in 1000-Megawatt-Schritten. Bei 6500 Megawatt würde die Förderung damit insgesamt um 34 Prozent eingeschränkt. Bei weniger als 2500 Megawatt wird die Förderung um 2 Prozent leicht aufgebessert. Für Solar-Freianlagen auf Ackerflächen soll sie - neben dem generellen Abschlag um 15 Prozentpunkte - grundsätzlich um weitere 10 Prozentpunkte - abgebaut werden.

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub0E9EEF84AC1E4A389A8DC6C23161FE44/Doc…


---------------------

Ich denke nicht, dass sich hier im Gesetzgebungsverfahren noch allzu viel ändert, selbst wenn einige Ostländer vielleicht ein bissel für die Branche kämpfen wollen. Sachsen und Sachsen-Anhalt wären hier politisch relevant, aber nach dem, was bei Q-Cells so abgeht, wird man sich für die auch nicht gerade aufreiben wollen.

Ich gehe weiterhin davon aus, dass es auch mit den neuen Fördersätzen einen Boom in Deutschland geben wird, der nicht gesund ist. Wenn man die Freifläche mehr oder weniger abschaltet, wirds vielleicht nicht ganz so krass, aber die 9 GW halte ich weiterhin für möglich. Das gilt vor allem dann, wenn es ab dem dritten Quartal wieder zu einer Panik mit Blick auf weitere - in ihrer Höhe ja nicht ganz sichere - Kürzungen in 2011 kommen sollte.

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.775.201 von SLGramann am 20.01.10 17:16:03

Hi,

9 GW sind ein Haufen Kleinvieh, unter der Annahme, dass der Freiflächenanteil nicht ansteigt. Glaubst Du wirklich das Aufdach-Analgen noch soviel Potential haben? Die großen und guten Dächer sind doch schon alle voll. Na ja, zumindest di Süddächer.

Gruß

[R-BgO]

Europe PV clients outsource more in anticipation of feed-in tariff cuts, say Taiwan makers


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 20 January 2010]

Anticipating that the governments in Germany and other European countries will soon reduce feed-in tariff rates for photovoltaic (PV) projects, Europe-based suppliers of PV modules and systems are outsourcing more of their production to makers in China and Taiwan so as to cut production costs, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Taiwan-based solar cell maker Gintech Energy has received additional orders from existing clients in Europe, but it currently cannot satisfy the extra demand because its capacity has already been fully occupied, according to company president Ellick Liao.

[R-BgO]

German solar subsidy cuts to spur price plunge in 2Q10, says iSuppli

Press release; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Friday 22 January 2010]

Germany's decision to slash subsidies on certain types of solar installations will result in a dramatic demand reduction and price plunge in the country for PV panels and systems in the second quarter of 2010, according to iSuppli.

The government in Germany has pre-announced plans to reduce its subsidies for new roof and open-field sites installed after April 2010 by 16% and 17%, respectively. The final decision is planned within the next 10 days.

This reduction is on top of a just-implemented, pre-planned, feed-in tariff reduction of 9% for smaller rooftops and of 11% for large rooftops and ground installations, said iSuppli. The announcement is dramatic compared to the 5% to 10% decrease that had been expected.

"Germany's decision to cut its solar subsidies in the second quarter will make installations less attractive for the country's consumers," said Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for iSuppli. "Because of this, German consumers will rush to make solar installations in the first quarter and then stop in the second quarter."

German solar installations will surge during the first quarter, starting at 200MW in January and then rising to 300MW in February and 500MW in March, iSuppli estimated. However, installations will plunge to 50MW in April and remain at the 100MW level in May and June.

"As a result of the decline in installations, solar system prices in Germany could decline by 7.5% from April through the end of 2010, compared to less than the 5% normal rate of decline," Wicht said.

The German government was prompted to reduce its rates because solar system prices declined more than expected in 2009 due to the country's aggressive subsidies during the year. With Germany being the world's largest market for solar installations – Germany accounted for 51% of global solar system installations in 2009 – its reductions could have a worldwide impact, iSuppli believes.

To put the size of Germany's domination into perspective, the second-largest solar nation, Italy, accounted for only 9% of global installations, iSuppli noted.

"The massive oversupply and downturn seen in the global solar cell industry in 2009 was largely due to Spain's decision to change its policies, which led to a collapse in demand," Wicht noted. "Germany's move could have a similar impact on the global solar market during the second quarter of 2010. However, there is a major difference: the German tariff does not limit the size of solar installations, whereas the Spain restricts installations to 400MW to 500MW per year. Assuming that solar system prices will drop more, installations in Germany will have an opportunity to recover, unlike in Spain."

3Q10 rebound

Conditions in the German market will recover in the third quarter as lower prices lure consumers and as consumers decide to buy before a further tariff reduction in 2010, according to iSuppli. After holding steady at 100MW in July (which is only one-fourth of the installations forecast in March), installations will rise steadily until November when they could reach 400MW.

[R-BgO]

Demand for grade B solar cells picking up, say Taiwan makers


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 22 January 2010]

Taiwan-based makers have revealed that they have obtained many orders for grade B solar cells in addition to normal grade products as demand heats up ahead of anticipated cuts in feed-in tarriff rates by governments in Europe, including Germany.

Grade B solar cells have lower energy conversion rates at below 15.4-15.8% and/or relatively inferior appearance, and they are mostly used for garden or street lighting, the makers indicated. Quotes for grade B solar cells are usually 10-20% lower than those for normal grade equivalents and may be even as much as 50% lower when demand for normal cells is low, the makers said. B

Currently, Taiwan-based makers quote US$1.2-1.3/watt for 6-inch normal grade polycrystalline silicon solar cells, while China-based competitors' prices stand at US$1.2-1.25/watt, the makers said.

[Slurry]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.790.684 von R-BgO am 22.01.10 13:11:49

R-BgO hat geschrieben:

"Germany's decision to slash subsidies on certain types of solar installations will result in a dramatic demand reduction and price plunge in the country for PV panels and systems in the second quarter of 2010, according to iSuppli."

Naja, ich glaube nicht dass Prognosen zu den Stärken von iSuppli zählt. Der prognostizierte Einbruch des Zubaus in 2009 zumindest hat sich als Griff ins Klo erwiesen.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/isuppli_makes_major_revision_…

Ich glaube nicht dass es im Q2 zu einem dramatischen Einbruch der Nachfrage kommt, da:

- Der Auftragsbestand der Installateuere ohnehin in den Q2 hineinreicht
- Potenzielle Anlagenbauer in 2010 wahrscheinlich etwas aus dem Fiasko 2009 gelernt haben und nicht bis in den Herbst warten werden um die Anlagen aufs Dach zu bekommen.

Gruss, Slurry

[UWR_Kerl]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.796.665 von Slurry am 23.01.10 06:47:32

Aber nur, wenn die Preise ebenfalls schnell runtergehen. Ansonsten ist die Rendite eher mau und keiner baut.

Oder sehe ich das falsch?!

Nach Deiner Theorie sollte man als pfiffiger PV-Anlagenbetreiber schonmal gut WR auf Vorrat kaufen und erst wenn die Preise für Module runter sind, die Module aufs Dach bringen?!

Die bereits getätigten Q2-Aufträge werden aber sicherlich zu Verstimmungen, Neuverhandlungen und Kündigungen führen, da mit der FIT-Kürzung derart kaum einer gerechnet hat.

[DrGoonzo]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.797.135 von UWR_Kerl am 23.01.10 11:41:57

Was heist es das die Rendieten "mau" sein sollen???

Wenn wir die Solarbranche mal vor 2-3 Jahren gesehen haben Lagen da die Preise je Installiertes KW bei 4500-5500€.
Ich habe diese Jahr schon preise bei 2500€ Schlüsselfertig installiert gehört.
Wir reden hier selbst bei einer Kürzung der Einspeisevergütung von 15% von knapp immer noch von Rendieten kurz unter 10%.

Also wieso sollte es in der Branche auf einmal aufhören???

[R-BgO]

PV module price cuts hinge on poly-Si costs


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 27 January 2010]

Germany's reductions in feed-in tariffs for PV system projects effective from April and July 2010 are expected to force module suppliers to cut prices. The extent of price cuts will in hinge on whether poly-Si prices drop, according to industry sources.

From poly-Si material to solar-grade crystalline silicon wafers, solar cells and then modules, the room for reducing module prices will shift upstream to poly-Si material costs, the sources explained.

Spot market quotes for poly-Si stand at US$50-53/kg currently, down from US$50-55/kg at the end of 2009, the sources said. Since production costs are about US$30/kg, spot market prices are likely to slip further, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan solar cell makers expect full utilization in February and March


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Thursday 28 January 2010]

Major Taiwan-based solar cell makers expect their capacities to remain fully occupied in February and March due to surging demand from Europe, according to industry sources.

As Europe-based clients are actively negotiating additional orders, these Taiwan-based solar cell makers expect their capacities to be booked up for February and March, and they have already scheduled regular production during the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, the sources indicated.

The strong demand from Europe has stemmed from the Germany government's planned cuts in feed-in tariff rates for PV system installation projects. PV module and system suppliers in Europe are stepping up sales promotion in the Germany market ahead of the cuts in the subsidies, the sources noted.

[R-BgO]

mal eine Preisangabe für SiC:

Prices for China-made silicon carbide up 10%, say Taiwan solar wafer makers

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 29 January 2010]

Prices of China-made silicon carbide (SiC), a material used in slicing solar-grade silicon ingots, have increased by 10% to NT$140-200 (US$4.4-6.3)/kg, according to sources with Taiwan-based solar wafer makers.

The price hike is due to increased cost of petroleum coke, the main material to make SiC, and growing demand for SiC by China-based solar wafer makers, the sources said, adding China-based makers account for about 90% of the global SiC output.

[R-BgO]

was dran?:

German FDP opposes solar incentive cuts
Tue Feb 2, 2010 6:21pm GMT

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's Free Democrats, junior coalition partners in Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right government, are opposed to proposals by the Environment Ministry to cut solar power incentives, an FDP lawmaker said Tuesday.

Michael Kauch, an environment policy expert in the FDP, told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung proposed cuts by Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen were too great and said the proposed cuts would harm the German solar power sector.

"We can't take an axe to it," Kauch said, according to an advance of a text to appear in Wednesday's edition of the paper. He said it would be wrong to cut the incentives by 15 percent as quickly as in April, as Roettgen wants.

Kauch said that in general, cutting excessive incentives is the right approach. But he added cuts should not be so steep as to harm the expansion of Germany's photovoltaic technology.

Kauch said he was opposed to Roettgen's plans to cut incentives for larger open-field solar systems by 25 percent and said the FDP is also opposed to introducing the cuts on April 1, as Roettgen has proposed.

Due to the severe winter, many investors will not be able to install systems by that deadline, Kauch said.

So-called feed-in tariffs -- prices utilities are obliged to pay to generators of renewable energy -- are the sector's lifeline as long as grid-parity, the point at which renewables cost the same as fossil fuel-based power, has not been reached.

SolarWorld, the country's biggest solar company by sales, and Q-Cells, one of the world's largest maker of solar cells, have said such cuts would be too steep, too fast and would kill jobs.

[Istanbul]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.871.178 von R-BgO am 03.02.10 13:19:46

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/792/502031/text/

http://de.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idDEBEE60S0CK2010…

Danach läufts auf Mai raus und noch stärkere Degression 2011. Kommts so, gibt es 2010 wegen Windhundrennen sicher einen neuen Rekord. Ganz sicher bei Dachinstallationen, aber wohl auch Freiland.

[king_of_fools]

Photovoltaik Vergütung in GB:

http://photovoltaik.eu/nachrichten/details/beitrag/grobritan…

Großbritannien gibt Photovoltaik-Vergütung bekannt
04. Februar 2010 |
Politik und Gesellschaft, Märkte und Trends, Topnews

Während Umweltminister Norbert Röttgen (CDU) die Photovoltaik-Vergütung ab 1. April kappen will, führt Großbritannien zu diesem Termin einen Einspeisetarif nach deutschem Vorbild ein. Die Anlagenbetreiber werden sogar mehr Geld bekommen, als zunächst von der Regierung angekündigt.
Der britische Umweltminister Ed Miliband inmitten einer Menschenmasse
Der britische Umweltminister Ed Miliband macht sich für erneuerbare Energien stark
Foto: Ed Miliband

Unternehmen und Haushalte, die Photovoltaik-Anlagen mit bis zu fünf Megawatt Leistung schon betreiben oder zukünftig installieren, werden in Großbritannien ab 1. April 2010 für die produzierte Elektrizität bezahlt. Das Energie- und Klimaministerium (DECC) hat jetzt die geplanten Einspeisevergütungen nach deutschem Vorbild vorgestellt, die sogar leicht über den im Vorfeld angekündigten Tarifen liegen. Die Vergütung umfasst sowohl Strom, der von den Betreibern selbst genutzt wird, als auch ins öffentliche Netz eingespeiste Energie. In den Genuss der Vergütung kommen alle Betreiber, deren Anlagen seit der Ankündigung der Einspeisetarife im Juli 2009 genehmigt wurden und die Strom mittels Photovoltaik, Biogas, Wind oder Wasser erzeugen.
Die Einspeisetarife lohnen sich vor allem für Betreiber von Photovoltaik-Anlagen. Solarstrom aus Anlagen bis einschließlich vier Kilowatt wird in den ersten beiden Jahren auf Neubauten mit 36,1 Pence (umgerechnet 41,4 Euro-Cent) je Kilowattstunde vergütet, nachgerüstet auf Altbauten mit 47,3 Euro-Cent. Bei Anlagen über vier und bis zehn Kilowatt gibt es ebenfalls 41,4 Euro-Cent, bei Anlagen über zehn und bis 100 Kilowatt noch 36 Euro-Cent. Solarstrom von größeren Photovoltaik-Anlagen bis maximal fünf Megawatt sowie von nicht netzgebundenen Anlagen wird mit 29,3 Pence (33,6 Euro-Cent) vergütet. Die Einspeisevergütung hat eine Laufzeit von 25 Jahren, die Degression steht noch nicht fest.
Experten rechnen mit Marktbelebung

Derzeit liegt in Großbritannien der Anteil der Erneuerbaren an der Energieversorgung bei gerade einmal 5,5 Prozent, Wärme wird zu weniger als ein Prozent aus erneuerbaren Quellen produziert. Bis 2020 soll der Anteil von Wind, Sonne und Co. an der gesamten Energieversorgung nach dem Willen der britischen Regierung bei 15 Prozent liegen. Als erstes Land der Welt will Großbritannien die Einspeisevergütung daher ab April 2011 auch im Wärmebereich greifen lassen.
Der Analystenfirma IMS Research zufolge wird die von der britischen Regierung angekündigte Einführung eines Einspeisetarifs vor allem das Photovoltaik-Segment des Landes beleben. Ash Sharma, Leiter des Bereichs Renewable Energy Research, sagt dazu: „Die Regierung hat einen noch höheren Einspeisetarif angekündigt als ursprünglich vorgesehen. Damit wird wahrscheinlich ein bedeutender Photovoltaik-Markt in Großbritannien geschaffen, auch wenn die Maßnahme aufgrund der erforderlichen Registrierung wohl erst nach einiger Zeit greifen wird. In Großbritannien, das über eine mit Deutschland vergleichbare Sonneneinstrahlung verfügt, wurden im Jahr 2009 ohne Einspeisetarif Photovoltaik-Anlagen mit einer Gesamtkapazität von lediglich fünf Megawatt installiert. Die Einführung des Einspeisetarifs könnte bereits im Jahr 2011 die Installation einer zusätzlichen Kapazität von 250 Megawatt bewirken.“
Eine Übersicht über die Einspeisetarife gibt es beim britischen Energie- und Klimaministerium. (Petra Hannen)

Grüe kof

[R-BgO]

Schöner Artikel über a-Si:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-prospects-of…

[R-BgO]

In den letzten Wochen sind die italienischen Projektierer gelaufen wie der Teufel. Mit am besten dabei:

Ternienergia Thread: TerniEnergia - italienischer PV-downstream Player

Ergy Capital Thread: Ergy Capital - italienischer Projektinvestor

ERG Renew Thread: ERG Renew - italienischer Wind- und PV-Betreiber


Eben bin ich nach längerer Zeit mal wieder auf der GSE-webseite gewesen und sehe, daß seit dem 2.1. 144 MW (!!!!) dazugekommen sind.

Aufs Jahr hochgerechnet wären das ca. 2,7 GW - Spanien reloaded

Was ich leider immer noch nicht abschätzen kann ist, wie groß der time-lag zwischen physischer Errichtung und Registrierung bei GSE ist.

Schon interessant, oder?

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.891.346 von R-BgO am 05.02.10 16:49:17

korrigiere: 1,7 GW nicht 2,7

624-480=144 x 12 = 1.728

[R-BgO]

Suntech exec sees excess solar supply coming to US

WASHINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Planned cuts to Germany's solar power incentives will probably prompt solar companies to ship excess panels to the United States, pressuring equipment prices here, a top U.S. executive for China's Suntech Power Holdings (STP.N) said on Thursday.

Germany is the top market for photovoltaic solar systems, with about 50 percent of the global market, but the government there is planning to cut prices paid for solar power from roof-mounted systems by 15 percent from April 1.

"Anything that happens in Germany has a ripple effect," Roger Efird, Suntech's managing director for business development in the United States, told the RETECH energy conference.

Solar modules that companies had planned to sell in the German market will probably come to the United States, which could become the biggest solar market by 2013.

Solar companies have struggled in the past year as a glut of supplies pressured module prices by about 40 percent, squeezing profit margins in the nascent industry, and the additional supplies that had been destined for Germany will push U.S. prices even lower.

"I'd say at least another 10 percent drop in pricing, maybe as much as 15 percent," Efird said.

Still, the U.S. solar market could show strong growth this year, he said, potentially doubling from an estimated 500 megawatts that were installed in 2009.

"There is an opportunity that we could hit 1 gigawatt in the United States this year," he said, but that would likely require about 300 MW of large, utility-scale projects.

One megawatt is enough to power about 800 homes.

[R-BgO]

das wären etwas über 10c/kWh!:

Yingli: PV Power Costs Under RMB 1/kWh in 2010

Posted on Dec 16, 2009 | 18:12


Vertically integrated photovoltaic (PV) products manufacturer Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) affiliate Yingli Group's chairman, Miao Liansheng, said December 15 that the company's PV power costs will drop to under RMB 1/kWh in 2010, China Business News reports. Miao said the decrease would be attributable to the company's 3,000-metric-ton (MT) per annum in-house polysilicon manufacturing facility, Fine Silicon, which has begun trial production. Fine Silicon can help control production costs to around $28/kg, the report said quoting Yingji Group Chief Strategy Officer Ma Xuelu.

[R-BgO]

German Solar Subsidy Cuts: Boon or Bust to Chinese Manufacturers?

Posted on Jan 22 | 10:01

Germany's Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen announced that the German government has proposed a 15% cut in solar feed-in tariffs, or subsidies given to solar power providers, effective in April for roof installations and July for open field sites, Dow Jones and others reported on January 20. The cut is smaller than the 16-17% decrease rumored last week, and would come in addition to a 9-11% decline, effective in January, that was originally set out in Germany's Renewable Energy Act.

If enacted, the new policy is likely to have a material impact on the Chinese solar industry, including Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE), Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE:STP) and Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), which have some of the most significant exposure among first-tier Chinese solar product makers to the German market. Germany also represents about half of Canadian Solar's (Nasdaq:CSIQ) 2010 shipments, expected to come in between 600-700MW, according to a Chinese-language interview with the company chairman on January 20.

But will the impact be as negative as it is at first glance? The goal of the policy is to reduce the long-term cost of solar power, and it offers some opportunities both in the immediate future and the longer term. Companies that have available capacity may benefit in Q1 as customers rush installations before FIT reductions take effect, and the policy may allow some Chinese manufacturers, whose vertically integrated business models and favorable cost structures allow them to withstand greater pricing pressure from downstream customers, to capture market share from their higher cost Western counterparts.

For a more detailed breakdown of the impact of FITs on a first-tier cost leader Yingli Green Energy and other Chinese manufacturers, Pacific Epoch clients can refer to our January 19 Yingli Q4 09 and 2010 Preview and other forthcoming solar industry reports.

[Slurry]

Blockbuster oder Flame-out?

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solyndra-1.9-mw-…

I würd sagen: Solyndra guckt in die Röhre !!!

[R-BgO]

Kostendeckende Einspeisevergütung: Vergütung für Solarstrom sinkt

Bern, 04.02.2010 - Das Eidgenössische Departement für Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation (UVEK) senkt die kostendeckende Einspeisevergütung (KEV) für Solarstrom um 18%. Grund dafür sind die stark gesunkenen Marktpreise für Photovoltaik-Module sowie die in der Energieverordnung vorgesehene reguläre jährliche Absenkung der Vergütungen. Weiter verlängert das UVEK die Frist zur Einreichung der Baubewilligungen für Windenergieanlagen von zwei auf vier Jahre. Und schliesslich führt das UVEK die Netto-Messung der Stromproduktion ein: Der Eigenstromverbrauch der Anlagen wird dadurch künftig bereits bei der Messung abgezogen und muss in den KEV-Tarifen nicht mehr verrechnet werden. Die Änderungen treten rückwirkend auf den 1. Januar 2010 in Kraft.

Die vom UVEK beschlossenen Änderungen betreffen die Anhänge 1.1 - 1.5 der Energieverordnung (EnV, SR 730.01). Diese Anhänge regeln die technischen Details und die Vergütungssätze der Technologien, die gemäss Art. 7a des Energiegesetzes (EnG, SR 730.0) von einer kostendeckenden Einspeisevergütung (KEV) profitieren können.
Umstellung von Brutto- auf Nettomessung

Bisher wurde bei allen KEV-berechtigten Stromproduktionsanlagen die Brutto-Stromproduktion direkt am Generator gemessen. Diese Brutto-Messung ist jedoch mit dem System der Herkunftsnachweise und der auf dem Ökostrommarkt gebräuchlichen Abrechnung nicht kompatibel. Neu erfolgt die Messung nach dem Netto-Prinzip am Einspeisepunkt gemäss Metering-Code des Verbands Schweizerischer Elektrizitätsunternehmen (VSE). Das heisst, dass der Eigenverbrauch der Energieanlage bereits bei der Messung abgezogen wird. Da der Eigenverbrauch der Anlagen bisher rechnerisch in den Vergütungssätzen der KEV berücksichtigt wurde, müssen durch die Umstellung von Brutto- auf Nettomessung auch die KEV-Vergütungssätze korrigiert werden.

Anlagebesitzer, die bereits 2009 die KEV erhielten oder über einen positiven Bescheid für die KEV verfügten, müssen die Nettoproduktion gemäss Übergangsregelung erst ab 2011 erfassen.
Anpassungen Photovoltaik

Die Marktpreise für Photovoltaikmodule sind im letzten Jahr stark gesunken, teilweise um über 20%. Die Energieverordnung sieht für solche Fälle vor, dass das UVEK die Vergütungssätze anpassen kann.

Die Kostenberechnungen für Referenzanlagen auf Basis der aktuellen Photovoltaikmodulpreise ergeben eine Anpassung der Vergütungssätze um -10%. Zusammen mit der in der Verordnung bereits vorgesehenen Absenkrate um 8% pro Jahr, ergibt sich für 2010 eine Reduktion der Vergütungssätze für Strom aus Photovoltaikanlagen um insgesamt 18%. Anlagen, die bereits 2009 eine Zusage für die KEV erhalten haben, sind von der zusätzlichen Absenkung von 10% nicht betroffen. Wenn sie erst 2010 in Betrieb gehen, unterliegen sie jedoch dem regulären jährlichen Absenkpfad von 8%. Der Strom aus PV-Anlagen, die im Rahmen des KEV-Systems bereits am Netz sind, wird weiterhin nach den alten Ansätzen vergütet.

[Istanbul]

2010/11 PV Demand Likely Stronger than Expected
http://seekingalpha.com/article/187200-2010-11-pv-demand-lik…

- China in 2010 mehr als 5GW
- Neues US-Gesetz "Ten Million Solar Roofs " bringt ca. 100GW nächste Dekade

[R-BgO]

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,676829,00.h…

Dass die Regierung die Solarkürzung verschiebt, hatte sich in den vergangenen Wochen abgezeichnet. Röttgen hatte am 20. Januar generell Flexibilität bei einzelnen Regelungen signalisiert, solange die Kürzung im Kern unverändert bleibt. Branchenkenner schließen nicht aus, dass Röttgens Ankündigung Ende Januar, die Förderung zum 1. April zu kürzen, Verhandlungstaktik gewesen ist: Der Zeitraum war ihrer Ansicht nach viel zu kurz bemessen, Röttgen habe ihn vor allem als Druckmittel benutzt.

Die Änderung der Förderregeln hätte sich ohnehin bis Juni hingezogen. Nach Informationen von SPIEGEL ONLINE waren vor zweieinhalb Wochen folgende Termine in dem Gesetzgebungsprozess vorgesehen:

* Kabinettsbeschluss am 24. Februar.
* Erste Lesung im Bundestag am 22. April.
* Zweite und dritte Lesung am 21. Mai.
* Vorlage im Bundesrat am 4. Juni.
* Inkrafttreten am 1. Juli.

Der Gesetzgebungsprozess hätte sich also ohnehin bis in den Sommer hingezogen. Die Regierung hätte dieses Problem nur umgehen können, indem sie die Kürzung zum 1. April rückwirkend im Gesetz verankert hätte - das Planungsungschaos für die Unternehmen wäre noch größer geworden. Eine rückwirkende Kürzung zum 1. April schien daher schon im Vorfeld kaum akzeptabel.

[R-BgO]

...in china scheint so langsam die Post abzugehen:

Ningxia Links 40MW PV Power Stations to the Grid

Posted on Feb 09, 2010 | 18:02

Five photovoltaic power stations in China's Ningxia province with total installed capacity of 40MW and annual capacity of 720 million kWh have begun to supply power to the grid, reported solarbe.com February 1. The stations are respectively operated by China Energy Conservation Investment Corp., Ningxia Electric Power Group, China Power, China Huadian Corporation's Ningxia subsidiary and Ningxia Power Investment Group, the report said.

weitere News Thread: PV-Markt: China

[R-BgO]

passiert schneller als gedacht (und wird auch in Deutschland nicht ewig auf sich warten lassen):

Czech grid warns will block solar, wind plants
Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:13pm GMT

PRAGUE, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The Czech power grid operator warned on Wednesday that a boom in solar and wind power plants could threaten stability of supplies, forcing it to take such plants offline, a warning to investors in new capacity.

Generous feed-in tariffs have led to an explosion in new power projects, especially solar plants, which guarantee high returns thanks to a drop in prices of photovoltaic panels.

"When we add together already completed projects and approvals issued for grid connections, the number is higher than an acceptable level for safe and reliable operation of the Czech Republic's electricity system," the operator CEPS said in a statement.

"Unless there is a quick change in the rules for connection of these sources, CEPS will be forced to take them out of operation, mainly when preventing or resolving emergency situations. That could mean a threat for investments... into solar and wind power plants."

Ouptut of wind and solar plants is volatile due to changing weather, and sudden output surges or drops put pressure on grid operators who need to keep the power systems stable.

The feed-in tariffs are guaranteed by law, and can only be changed by 5 percent per year. Analysts have said that return on investments into solar power plants has soared and investors can recover their input in significantly less than 10 years.

CEPS said that the Czech power system already included 600 MW in solar and wind plants, and a further 3,500 MW capacity has been approved.

The company said it had asked the country's power distribution companies, CEZ (CEZPsp.PR), E.ON EONG.DE and Prazska Energetika PREG.PR to halt issuing approvals for grid connections.

It said it would seek to define new rules for project approvals with the distribution companies.

The parliament has been discussing a law that would allow faster cuts in the feed-in tariffs for new plants built as of next year, prompting a rush in investment activity this year. (Reporting by Jan Lopatka; Editing by Keiron Henderson)

[R-BgO]

http://www.electroiq.com/index/display/photovoltaics-article…

[R-BgO]

Das hier ist schon lustig:

TerniEnergia and Italian-Chinese JV build 1MW plant in Apulia, Italy
10 February 2010 | By Mark Osborne | News > Power Generation


Consistent with its announced plans for further small-scale power plants in Italy, TerniEnergia has plans to build a 1MW PV power plant in the Apulia region at a cost of approximately €3 million. The plant will be owned by TRP-PVE, an Italian-Chinese joint venture company.

TerniEnergia said that the JV could build further plants in Italy. In January, 2010 TerniEnergia announced plans to build 10 solar PV plants in Umbria, Marche, Sicily and Apulia regions for a total capacity of approximately 10MW.

Approximately 4.5MW of these installations were planned with joint venture companies.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.939.206 von R-BgO am 13.02.10 11:11:52

Die Chinesen verkaufen nicht mehr einfach nur Ihre Module, sondern finanzieren die Kraftwerke für die sie dann 20+ Jahre die hohen Strompreise kriegen.

Ist nicht so anders, als irgendwelche Plantagen in Afrika zu errichten, um sich von dort mit Nahrungsmitteln versorgen zu lassen. Nur das Produkt hier ist eben cash.

=> es wird höchste Zeit, dass wir von den Incentive-Märkten wegkommen...

[R-BgO]

von IBD:

On Friday February 12, 2010, 6:37 pm EST

The global coal industry is in the midst of a permanent structural shift in the form of the emerging dominance of the Asia-Pacific region.

China and India are at the heart of the transformation, firmly placed as the world's No. 1 and No. 3 biggest coal producing nations, respectively. (The U.S. is No. 2.)

And demand in the world's two most populous nations is growing rapidly.

India's imports of thermal coal, used in power generation, rose 60% in 2009 to 57 million tons. China shifted to a net importer last year to the tune of 70 million tons of thermal coal, despite large domestic resources of the black rock.

Both countries are also experiencing a spike in demand for metallurgical coal, a main ingredient of steel, as their economies continue to mushroom.

At the end of January, Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU - News) said it is expanding a mine in Australia at a cost of $70 million to boost capacity by 1 million tons within several years to meet growing demand for metallurgical, or met coal, used by steel companies in China, India and other Asian nations.

"China and India have permanently changed the seaborne metallurgical and thermal coal market landscape," CEO Gregory Boyce said. Peabody enjoyed a 37% increase in Australian coal shipments in the second half of 2009.

Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE:ANR - News) said it sees much strength in the metallurgical markets in 2010. It raised its metallurgical shipment guidance by about 1 million tons, to 11 million to 13 million tons for this year.

Meanwhile back in the U.S., the enormous stockpiles of coal racked up by utilities during the depths of the recession are starting to shrink after extremely cold weather in December and January.

According to U.S. utilities, which use coal to generate nearly half of America's electricity, roughly 50 to 60 gigawatts of coal will go offline over the next 10 years or so.

The U.S. will need to replace that energy, and renewables such as solar, wind, small hydro, modern biomass, geothermal and biofuels are one of the paths to take to fill that void.

1. Business

IBD's Energy-Other group includes any energy source that is not oil or natural gas. The group's 800-pound gorilla is coal.

Coal mining, especially underground, is a capital- and labor-intensive business. It is also a very high fixed-cost business.

Electricity demand has been the primary value driver for thermal and steam coal for a long time, with steel being the other big driving force.

In 2009, the U.S. produced 1.08 billion tons of coal, mined primarily from four major coal basins with smaller ones spread across the country. The four are the northern and central Appalachian basins, the Illinois basin and northern Wyoming's Powder River Basin.

Peabody is the largest U.S. coal miner, producing 215 million tons last year. It is the only U.S.-based company in the group with international mining operations, in this case Australia.

Arch Coal (NYSE:ACI - News) is the second-largest company in the group; Alpha Natural Resources moved into the No. 3 slot with last year's acquisition of Foundation Coal for $1.4 billion in stock. Consol Energy (NYSE:CNX - News) and Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE - News) are fourth and fifth, respectively.

The U.S. is capable of generating roughly 1,000 gigawatts of electricity per year. Coal generates some 325 gigawatts, natural gas kicks in 400 and nuclear makes up another 100, according to Brian Gamble, an analyst at Simmons & Co. The rest, he says, is split between hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and biomass.

"The segment of the U.S. power grid that is made up of renewables is quite small," Gamble said. "It is a growing market, albeit from a small base, but we don't expect solar, wind or any other renewable to gain significant market share for some time."

The group includes several solar companies, including Chinese firms like Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL - News) and Suntech Power (NYSE:STP - News).

First Solar (NMS:FSLR) is the largest U.S.-based solar company by market share. Other American firms include Real Goods Solar (NMS:RSOL), GT Solar International (NMS:SOLR) and SunPower (NMS:SPWRA).

While multinationals such as GE (NYSE:GE - News) and Siemens (NYSE:SI - News) have made a strong push into wind power, those diversified industrial giants are listed in other stock groups. In the Energy-Other group, Danish company Vestas Wind Systems (OTCBB:VWDRY.ob - News) is the largest wind-power company.

Ormat Technologies (NYSE:ORA - News) and U.S. Geothermal (AMEX:HTM.a - News) operate plants of geothermal energy, power generated from heat stored in the Earth.

Name Of The Game: It's simple: produce and supply coal, wind, solar, hydropower and other renewables to fulfill the world's energy needs, which are expected to grow rapidly over the next 20 to 30 years, says Michael Dudas, an analyst with Jefferies & Co.

2. Market

U.S. utilities are the biggest customers for coal producers and renewable energy alike.

Steel makers are the next biggest consumers of coal.

The entire coal market, which is dominated by the publicly traded miners and small mom-and-pops, is estimated at roughly north of $52 billion. The U.S. is expected to produce 1.07 billion tons of coal this year, with public coal companies churning out more than half that output.

The renewables market is a bit tougher to size as the adoption of these alternative energies is still in early phases. But rough estimates for the global wind and solar market is roughly $100 billion, with 70% of that produced by wind. The U.S. wind market is roughly $20 billion, according to Simmons' estimates.

3. Climate

The biggest issue facing the coal industry is permits being held up by the Environmental Protection Agency that are needed to continue producing coal. Environmentalists contend coal mining is destroying landscapes where these basins are located.

"The problem here is that we are going to experience energy usage growth of 50% over the next 25 years, and we can't do it without coal, which is one of the cheapest forms of energy," Dudas said.

Coal stockpiles rose last year as demand fell. Businesses were forced to close and shutter production, while consumers used less heat to save on their energy bills, Dudas says.

"Coal producers will have to manage their output and in some cases shut mining operations down until the stockpiles begin to decline, which has already begun," he said.

Last week, U.S. industry executives from the wind, solar, hydropower, geothermal and biomass sectors pushed for a federal renewable energy standard, which would set a percentage of how much energy must come from renewable sources in the U.S.

The group wants an extension of tax incentives and said stimulus funds powered most renewable expansion last year. President Barack Obama has urged Congress to set a national standard that would require 25% renewable power by 2025.

A federal standard, which they say will foster economic growth and create jobs, could spur these industries at a time when China is moving swiftly into alternative energy production.

4. Technology

Most technological advances in this industry group have occurred in renewables.

For example, ethanol producers, such as BioFuel Energy (NMS:BIOF) and Pacific Ethanol (NMS:PEIX), use corn oil extraction technologies to produce the biofuel.

Companies such as Hy-Drive Technologies provide natural gas or hydrogen-generating systems for diesel and commercial fleets.

And FuelCell Energy (NMS:FCEL) makes stationary fuel cells, which electrochemically produce electricity directly from hydrocarbon fuels for commercial, industrial, utility and government customers.

Solar power companies have to be tech-savvy to generate electricity from sunlight. This can be direct as with photovoltaics, or indirect as with concentrating solar power, where the sun's energy is focused to boil water, then used to generate power.

5. Outlook

Over the next decade, coal plant retirements will take roughly 50 to 60 gigawatts of coal generation offline.

The U.S. will need to replace that lost energy, and renewables are the answer, Gamble says.

"It will take a mix to fill the void, and there will be a shift, but renewables won't fill that need overnight," he said. "In order to make this happen, there will have to be additional infrastructure built, which becomes an expensive proposition no matter how you slice it."

Nuclear, natural gas and renewable energy can each fill part of that role, but additional coal assets must be built in the meantime.

Upside: The world has unquenchable thirst for energy as emerging economies continue their rapid growth and populations in developed nations continue to swell. That demand should fuel business for traditional sources like coal as well as renewables.

Risks: Another recession could further sap demand for coal, which could increase stockpiles and restrain mining operations. Also, tougher regulation in the U.S. would make starting new projects difficult.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 38.924.927 von R-BgO am 11.02.10 12:34:44

und BUFF!!:

CEZ halts approvals for solar, wind power plants
Tue Feb 16, 2010 10:06am GMT

PRAGUE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The distribution arm of the main Czech power firm CEZ (CEZPsp.PR) halted issuing approvals for connection of new solar and wind power plants to the grid on Tuesday because a boom in the sector threatened grid stability.

The CEZ decision heeded a call from the country's high-voltage network operator CEPS, which had warned it would have to start turning some plants off to keep the grid stable.

"The size of the demanded capacity threatens the safety and reliability of the electricity network, therefore the company management...decided to immediately meet the request of CEPS," CEZ said in a statement.

Solar and wind power is unstable due to fast uncontrollable changes in output, and its growing proportion in the power mix brings a threat of sudden power surges or drops.

The Czech Republic exports power and the grid has large exchanges with German, Polish, Austrian and Slovak networks.

The interruption of approving new plants follows a surge in solar projects caused by legislation that guarantees high feed-in tariffs that distributors must pay to producers.

A drop in prices of solar panels and their growing efficiency has cut the return on investment into new plants to just a few years, making it a safe and high-yield bet.

CEPS said last week that about 3,500 megawatts worth of new solar and wind capacity had been approved, much more than the network can handle. The country now has 600 megawatts in solar and wind power production capacity.

The parliament has been discussing legislation that would allow a cut in the feed-in tariffs for new plants as of next year, but its approval prior to parliamentary election in May is uncertain.

Prague city distributor Prazska Energetika said it had also halted issuing new approvals for wind and solar plants. A spokesman for E.ON EONG.DE, the country's third distributor, was not immediately available for comment. (Reporting by Jan Lopatka; editing by James Jukwey)

[Istanbul]

First Solar Q4 2009 Earnings Call
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9M…

Interessant, da FS als von den Kosten her konkurrenzloses Unternehmen den Fokus auf die Marktentwicklung legt und hier die Dinge schön auf den Punkt bringt.

S.34 FIT Markets: Ich denke, dass sich in Frankreich und Italien 2010 die Entwicklung in Spanien 2008 und Deutschland 2009 wiederholt: Massives Wachstum und folgend Notbremse beim FIT auf ein zu D vergleichbares Niveau.

Vielleicht lernen sie auch was und es kommt sowas wie eine Abstimmung EU-weit. Das bisherige Windhundrennen in den jeweils günstigsten Markt ist jedenfalls nicht so optimal.

BTW: Das Kapazitätenwachstum von FS verlangsamt sich so stark, dass 2010 keine neuen Kapazitäten zur Verfügung stehen.

[MdBJuppZupp]

Online unterschreiben: Der Solarstandort Deutschland darf nicht sterben! Ich bin gegen eine radikale Beschneidung der Solarstromförderung.

Zur BSW-Solar-Unterschriftenliste
http://www.solar-made-in-germany.de/

[R-BgO]

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/02/22/solar-sh…

[SLGramann]

aus der FAZ:

23. Februar 2010 Die Koalitionsfraktionen von Union und FDP haben sich auf die künftige Förderung von Solaranlagen geeinigt. Die Subvention für Anlagen auf Dächern und Freiflächen werde zum 1. Juli um 16 Prozent gekürzt, das heißt noch einen Monat später als zuletzt gedacht (Solarförderung wird später und stärker gekappt). Wie ein Sprecher der Unionsfraktion am Dienstag in Berlin weiter mitteilte, wird die Förderung von Anlagen auf Ackerflächen ganz wegfallen. Nun solle die Regelung „zeitnah“ im Kabinett beraten werden.

----

Jetzt wird das Gesetzgebungsverfahren schnell und geräuscharm über die Bühne gehen. Mit nochmaligen Änderungen rechne ich nicht.

Interessant wird aber sein, ob die "Hintertür" Eigenverbrauchsförderung wirklich weit offen bleibt. Dort ist ja angeblich keine Senkung der Sätze geplant.

Ebenfalls spannend wird die Höhe der Absenkung zum 01.01.2011 werden. Hier erwarte ich einen ziemlichen Hammer, weil ich von einem sehr hohen Zubau in 2010 ausgehe.

[R-BgO]

Solar Industry Faces Stiff Price Drops
The solar industry faces steep price declines again in 2010, although prices will drop at a more moderate pace than last year, predicted iSuppli. While installed watts will grow by 64% this year, the market research firm said module prices will decline by an estimated 20%, following a 37.8% drop in 2009.
David Lammers, News Editor -- PV Society, 2/25/2010

The solar industry faces a "permanent ratcheting down of price structures" that will "change the face of the industry," said the chief solar analyst at iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.). While predicting a strong rebound in demand for solar panels this year, with a 64% increase in installed watts, PV faces such steep price declines that companies will need to accelerate their cost-reduction programs, said Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for photovoltaic systems at iSuppli.

While iSuppli expects overall demand to increase sharply, that picture is clouded by expectations that the feed-in tariff subsidy in Germany, which accounts for roughly half the world market now, will be cut in the middle of this year.

Changes are underway on the supply side as well. Two South Korean giants, Samsung and LG Electronics, are expanding their solar-related operations, as are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC, Hsinchu, Taiwan) and U.S. engineering giant Bechtel.

The iSuppli analyst said global installed watts for PV systems will grow by 64% in 2010, reaching 8.3 GW, a return to growth levels seen before the fall of 2008. However, the industry will see a continuation of the "tremendous price erosion" that began last year.

On average, iSuppli said crystalline module prices last year fell by 37.8%, solar wafer prices plunged by half, and polysilicon prices crashed, dropping 80%. Price drops will continue this year at a slower rate, with crystalline module prices expected to drop by 20%, wafer prices by 18.2% and polysilicon prices by 56.3%. iSuppli also is projecting that prices, on average, will recover by 10% or more in the final quarter of 2010, despite the declines for the entire year.

iSupply PV Pricing Trends"iSuppli is predicting crystalline module prices will drop by 20% this year. (Source: iSuppli)"

Wicht said that PV suppliers will need to continue accelerating cost reductions in order to keep up with the expected price declines. While solar suppliers lost money last year, profits returned for many suppliers in the fourth quarter and are expected to improve in 2010.

"The erosion in pricing is bound to change the face of the solar industry," Wicht said. "The freefall of PV prices represents a permanent ratcheting down of price structures that will transform the industry into a more competitive marketplace."

iSuppli said the growth of PV installations, especially in the first half of 2010, will be led by "a newly energized" German market. "The German market, however, could stall again by summertime, if the feed-in-tariff (FIT) designed to encourage the adoption of PV systems is trimmed by the Merkel government," iSuppli reported.

Wicht said the German market accounted for 50% of total worldwide PV installations in 2009, and "is of such importance that the collective PV demand accruing from other countries will not be sufficient to compensate for a German FIT reduction of 15%" if that were imposed in mid-2010.

With Germany apparently poised to cut its subsidies, Wicht said other markets may pick up the slack later this year, led by the United States, Italy and China. "Together, these three markets will account for 50% of the growth projected to occur in 2010," he said.

According to an Associated Press report from Berlin, the governing coalition parties in Germany said they are planning deep cuts in subsidies. The price paid for electricity from solar panels on roofs will be cut by 16% and that from larger solar power stations by 15%, said Hans-Peter Friedrich of the governing coalition.

The AP report said power grid owners currently are required to buy solar power at 39 euro cents (53 U.S. cents) per kilowatt hour, while the market price is only about 5 euro cents per kilowatt hour. The power grid owners then pass the difference on to consumers.

The July price cuts follow a 9% reduction at the beginning of the year. The subsidy reductions are meant to bring down the subsidy's cost for consumers by €1B a year ($1.35B), according to Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen, the AP report said.

The German subsidy cuts come as solar vendors struggle to return to profitability. Q-Cells SE CEO Anton Milner, in a conference call following a report of huge losses in 2009, called 2009 "an appalling year," and said his objective this year is "to get the company back into a profitable growth mode."

To do that, Q-Cells will use its hard-earned knowledge of operational efficiencies at the Malaysia factory that will absorb much of the company's capital expenditures this year.

"The old business model for solar cell companies has certain limits. We will become an overall PV company," including supplying utilities with systems based on thin-film modules, Milner said.

[R-BgO]

China’s ‘Overcrowded’ Solar Sector Faces Lower Demand, More M&A
February 26, 2010, 1:37 AM EST

By Regina Tan

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China’s “overcrowded” solar power industry faces lower demand this year from Germany, the biggest buyer of the technology, and an increase in the number of mergers and acquisitions, according to Yuanta Securities Co.

Revenue may fall 40 percent in the second half of 2010 after the German government agreed this month on draft legislation to reduce subsidies to renewable energy users, said Min Li, a Hong Kong-based energy analyst at Yuanta Securities.

China, which supplies about half the world’s solar modules, is likely to feel the effect of German law changes after expanding capacity, analysts said. The number of mergers and acquisitions in 2010 will probably exceed that of 2008, Li said, without giving an estimate. The 16 deals in 2008 were the most since Bloomberg New Energy Finance began compiling data in 2003.

“This sector is already overcrowded,” Li said in a phone interview. “In order to survive you have to have manufacturing scale. You either acquire someone or get squeezed out.”

So far this year there have been two acquisitions, including GCL Poly Energy Holdings Ltd.’s planned purchase of Konca Solar Cell Co. Nomura International (HK) Ltd. analyst Ivan Lee said he expects more deals industrywide because mergers are a “cost-effective way for vertical integration.”

“We do expect solar companies across the globe to take similar moves,” Lee said in an e-mail reply to questions.

GCL Poly Energy, China’s largest polysilicon maker, said in January it plans to pay 854.1 million yuan ($125.1 million) for a 70 percent stake in the smaller mainland solar equipment manufacturer Konca Solar Cell, according to a statement from the Hong Kong-listed energy company.

Price Declines

Solar module production in China and Taiwan will increase 48 percent to 5,515 megawatts in 2010 and prices will fall 11 percent to $1.45 per watt of electricity by the fourth quarter, according to a Feb. 11 report by Yuanta. Nomura said in a report published Jan. 29 it expects prices to drop to $1.50 to $1.60 per watt in the same timeframe.

Germany accounted for about half the world’s demand for solar modules last year, Bloomberg New Energy Finance analyst Chi-Chu Tsang said in an interview. Polysilicon is the most expensive component for traditional solar power.

--With assistance from John Duce in Hong Kong. Editors: Raj Rajendran, Grant Clark.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan makers increase solar cell spot prices due to strong demand

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 2 March 2010]

Due to strong demand from clients in Germany, Italy and the US, Taiwan-based crystalline silicon solar cell makers have raised their spot market quotes to US$1.35-1.4/watt while keeping their contract prices almost unchanged at US$1.2-1.3/watt, according to industry sources.

Providers of photovoltaic (PV) systems and installation service in these countries are building up inventories as snowing is coming to an end, the sources indicated. In the German market particularly, demand for PV system installation is expected to surge in March-June because feed-in tariff rates will be reduced starting in July 2010, the sources added.

Taiwan-based makers have not hiked contract prices mainly because China-based competitors have not done so, the sources explained.

[R-BgO]

Tokuyama und M.Setek:

Japan-based suppliers lower poly-Si prices to US$50/kg for 2Q10


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 3 March 2010]

Some Japan-based producers of polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) material have quoted US$50/kg or even slightly lower for the second quarter of 2010, lower than the current level of US$50-55/kg offered by main international suppliers, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

Europe- and US-based international suppliers are optimistic about their business outlook and have kept their prices at US$50-55/kg range for the second quarter, with some insisting on prices no less than US$53/kg, the sources said.

[R-BgO]

China solar cell makers to add 4.5-5GWp capacity in 2010, say Taiwan makers


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Thursday 4 March 2010]

China-based solar cell makers will expand their annual production capacities by a total of 4.5-5GWp in 2010, judging from estimates by international equipment suppliers, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The suppliers of solar cell production equipment, basing on their orders from China-based clients as of the end of 2009, originally estimated China's solar cell capacity expansion at 3.5-4GWp for 2010, the sources said.However, these suppliers have obtained many additional orders since then, and therefore have revised their estimates to 4.5-5GWp, the sources explained.

China-based solar cell makers are increasing their capacities, as they expect Europe-based makers to cut their production costs by increasing outsourcing following the reduction in feed-in tariff rate for photovoltaic (PV) system installation in Germany from July 2010, the sources indicated.

[Slurry]

PREISE STEIGEN WIEDER

WO BLEIBT BLOSS DIE OVERCAPACITY ?

Taiwan-based PV module makers raise quotes by 2.7-2.8%

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 9 March 2010]

Taiwan-based producers of photovoltaic (PV) modules made of crystalline silicon solar cells hiked their spot market prices by 2.7-2.8% from US$1.8-1.85/watt to US$1.85-1.9/watt in early March, while China-based fellow makers' quotes remain at US$1.7-1.85/watt, according to industry sources.

Europe is the main market for Taiwan-based PV module makers, the sources noted, adding Europe-based PV module makers' current quotes mostly range from US$2.3-US$2.5/watt.

[R-BgO]

* March 9, 2010, 1:28 PM ET

Solar Boom Coming; But First, “Widespread Company Failures”

By Eric Savitz

For solar enthusiasts, a new report from Lux Research offers both good news and bad news.

The Boston-based research firm contends that the global solar market will expand to $77 billion by 2015, growing at a 23% compounded rate from an estimated $39 billion in 2010. The industry, Lux analyst Ted Sullivan contends, will “wildly beat” current long-term expectations for the industry, with 2015 shipments increasing to an estimated 26.4 GW, from 9.3 GW in 2010.

So that’s the good news.

The problem is, before the industry enjoys the fruits of that growth, it’s going to have to suffer.

Sullivan sees a period of significant over-capacity ahead, and expects to see :”violent changes” in the industry, with “widespread company failures throughout the value chain.” He contends that the “continuing glut threatens low-quality and high-cost players alike,” and particularly singles out Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and the Uni-Solar brand from Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) as companies at risk, due to “high operating costs and insufficient scale.”

Sullivan asserts that solar is essentially an energy and construction business - not a consumer-driven sector like semiconductors, despite similarities in technology. The result, he says, is that solar has an adoption cycle determined by the replacement cycles for residential and commercial roofs - 15-20 years - and for natural gas power plants - up to 30 years.

[R-BgO]

Delivery time for solar ingots/wafers equipment prolonged due to growing demand, say Taiwan makers


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Thursday 11 March 2010]

Suppliers of equipment used to grow solar-grade crystalline silicon ingots and slice ingots into wafers have extended the time from order to delivery because China-based makers have placed many orders to expand their production capacities, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The time between order and delivery has been prolonged from three months originally to 4-5 months, the sources pointed out.

However, there has not been a large increase in global demand for solar cells, so China-based makers of solar-grade crystalline silicon ingots/wafers may have overestimated the market demand and thus overbooked equipment, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

China-based PV module maker to lower quotes by 10% after feed-in tariff cuts in Germany


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 12 March 2010]

An unspecified China-based maker of PV modules plans to lower its spot market quotes by 10%, from US$1.7-1.85/W currently, the third quarter of 2010 in a bid to maintain its global market competitiveness after the expected reduction in feed-in tariffs in Germany at the beginning of July, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The maker and some fellow makers in China have the advantage of comparatively low production costs due to integrated production from polycrystalline silicon material, solar-grade crystalline silicon wafers, solar cells to PV modules, the sources pointed out.

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/editors_blog/_a/guest_blog_pv_inverte…

[R-BgO]

Solar photovoltaic market grew 6% in 2009, says Solarbuzz
15 March 2010 | By Mark Osborne | News > Market Watch


Global Solar photovoltaic installations reached 6.43GW in 2009, an increase of 6% over 2008, according to a new report from Solarbuzz, which was recently acquired by The NPD Group. According to the market research firm, this is a new record for installations and generated US$38 billion in global revenues. The top three countries in Europe were Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic, which accounted for 4.07GW of installations. European countries accounted for 4.75GW of installtions or 74% of world demand in 2009. The United States was the third largest market in 2009, which grew 36% to 485MW, with Japan posting growth of 109% to secure the fourth spot.

"Industry performance in 2009 was remarkable in that it managed to more than fully replace the 2.3 GW demand gap caused by the change in policy in Spain," remarked Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz. "Looking forward, the industry will see a return to high growth, but in a low margin environment. Our analysis demonstrates that a wide range of start-up markets will help offset a slowdown in German demand in the second half of 2010."

According to Solarbuzz, global solar cell production reached a consolidated figure of 9.34GW in 2009, up from 6.85GW in 2008. China and Taiwanese production continued to gain market share, accounting for 49% of global cell production, Solarbuzz said. However, global thin film production now accounts for 18% of that total.

According to the market research firm, the Top 7 polysilicon manufacturers had 114,500 tonnes per annum of capacity in 2009, up 92% on their 2008 level, while the Top 8 wafer manufacturers accounted for 32.9% of global wafer capacity in 2009.

Solarbuzz also said that it expects to PV market to be 2.5 times its current size by 2014, based on a slowest growth scenario, while a ‘production led’ fast growth scenario would see annual industry revenues approach $100 billion by 2014.

[R-BgO]

von PV-Insights:

Solar component price will have a short term uptrend in 2Q10 but flatten in 3Q10.

PVinsights forecast that solar PV demand should be strong with 2.4-2.6 GW of worldwide solar PV system installation in 2Q10, following the projects of global solar players under current of new Feed-In-Tariffs programs. The PV industry, under the rapid development over the past 6 years, has been recognized one of the important energy sources. After the significant system price drop, people expect that Gird Parity of PV systems are achievable in the coming few years. In order to taking a good competition position in the solar PV energy, some governments are taking the serious Feed-In-Tariffs programs. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan started the subsidy program to purchase surplus solar PV power at 48Yen/KWh for 10KW below systems and at 24Yen/KWh for 10KW and greater systems. According to the projects of major Japanese solar system makers, PVinsights predict that there are 160-180MW of the solar PV system installation in 2Q10. Before Germany government officially announces new Feed-In-Tariff policy in July, 2010, most Germany solar system players will be active to install solar system for taking a good investment return from current Feed-In-Tariff policy. Uncertainty of the timing of Germany Feed-In-Tariffs change will trigger the pull-in solar PV demand 150MW to 200MW in 2Q10. Following the projects of Germany main solar players, PVinsights forecast that there is 1.0-1.2GW of solar PVsystem installation at Germany in 2Q10.

Inverter shortage will be against solar PV system installation in 2Q10 and there is no signal to solve this issue soon. Since last December, major inverter vendors, such as Mastervolt, SMA, Fronius, started requesting their clients to place orders three months in advance. Solar system makers and the largest inverter manufacturers also reported inverter shortage will be the bottleneck of solar system installation in 2Q10. In the past, Q4 and Q1 are the traditional slow seasons in the solar PV industry and inverters makers will have a few weeks of inverters inventory for preparing the coming hot seasons. However, there is no slow season from 4Q09 to 1Q10 but there is solid solar system installation instead. The inverter makers are working hard to fulfill the orders but there is still not enough to inverters demand.

With strong demand from other countries but without Germany significant demand drop, solar PC component price will maintain flatten in 3Q10. PVinsights expect that Germany Feed-In-Tariff cut will not exceed over 25% for keeping an attractive incentives with over 7% IRR for solar PV plant projects. Without significant demand drop in Germany, the solar demand should be still fine from the other countries, such as Japan, UK, USA, during the traditional solar system installation hot season in 3Q10. Since 4Q08, solar module prices have been cut over 50% to lower than US$ 2.0 per watt now, but Germany did not change Feed-In-Tariff policy from 4Q08. This solar module price drop without Feed-In-Tariff cut made solar system investment return sweet from 3Q09 till now, So far, people expect Germany government will have 15%-20% Feed-In-Tariff cut. If solar module prices are still lower than US$2.5, Germany solar installation demand will be slow down but not disappear. Moreover, more and more countries will have their new Feed-In-Tariff policy, especially for Japan, US and UK. The solar demand in 3Q10 can help solar component price flatten.

[Slurry]

China solar wafer makers hike quotes to US$3.5 for 2Q10

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 17 March 2010]

Several China-based producers of solar-grade polycrystalline silicon wafers have raised their quotes by 16.7-18.6% from US$2.95-3.0 per 6-inch wafer in early first quarter of 2010 to US$3.5 for the second quarter, according to sources with Taiwan's solar cell makers.

Taiwan's solar wafer suppliers, with available capacities running short of orders by as much as 30%, plan to hike their quotes by 4.9% from US$3.05 per 6-inch wafer currently to US$3.2 for the next quarter, the sources noted.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan-based solar cell makers seeking contract price hikes for 2Q10


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Thursday 18 March 2010]

Taiwan-based makers of crystalline silicon solar cells, foreseeing that global demand will continue to be strong and solar wafer costs will rise in the second quarter, plan to raise their contract quotes for the second quarter from US$1.2-1.25/watt currently to about US$1.3/watt, according to industry sources.

Although some solar cell makers claim that their clients have consented to the price hikes, many of their outsourcing clients and photovoltaic (PV) module makers from China, Europe and Japan may not accept them, the sources commented.

[R-BgO]

Jabil arbeitet für SPWR, ESLR,...

Flextronics für:

March 19, 2010

Singapore: Flextronics Opens Module Manufacturing Facility; Plans 1 GW Capacity in Two Years

Flextronics has dedicated one million square feet to create a clean tech supersite established at its facility in Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP), Malaysia.

Flextronics says this strengthens the company's position as a global leader in the manufacturing of solar modules and complements the company's cleantech strategy that includes providing services to global OEMs of inverters, wind power, smart grid, smart metering, and energy-efficient lightning solutions. Flextronics expects its Cleantech supersite to result in significant improvements to the industry, including technical advancements for solar products, increased outsourcing among OEMs due to cost and logistics advantages, and overall supply chain optimization.

With a range of solar module production services already operational at PTP, Flextronics' site development plans include increasing its capacity to support one gigawatt of solar module production over the next two years.

Flextronics has established customer relationships with many of the world's leading clean tech OEMs, including Cree Lighting, Carmanah, Oerlikon, SolarEdge, and Enphase. Malaysia is a burgeoning center for the production of solar products, with major competitive advantages for Flextronics, such as proximity to solar OEM operations, localized resources, and excellent logistics solutions.

"Flextronics' ability to offer the most robust line of solutions to OEMs across the quickly expanding Clean Tech sector is a powerful competitive advantage. Our focused strategic push into this space, a sector we have held a leadership position in for many years, is unique among global EMS providers, given our size, scale, and world-class logistics services. We are completely focused on being the partner of choice for OEMs in the Clean Tech sector," said E.C. Sykes, president of Flextronics Industrial.

"Malaysia is the ideal location for our Clean Tech Super Site because of customer proximity and established wafer and cell operations in the area. This is an exciting time for our organization, and we are very pleased by the progress with our Clean Tech operations and are aggressively working toward its complete build-out," continued Sykes.

[ehrenwort]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.187.532 von R-BgO am 22.03.10 08:57:38

"Plans 1 GW Capacity in Two Years" - was ist denn hiermit gemeint? Fertigungskapazität Solarmodule? Fertigungskapazität Inverter? Die genannten Namen sind eher in letzterem Markt aktiv...

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.140.278 von R-BgO am 15.03.10 13:54:06

Global Solar photovoltaic installations reached 6.43GW in 2009, an increase of 6% over 2008...
According to Solarbuzz, global solar cell production reached a consolidated figure of 9.34GW in 2009, up from 6.85GW in 2008.

Das hiesse ja, dass massig Zellen auf Halde liegen müssten - in 2008 schon mehr produziert, als verbaut worden sind, und im letzten Jahr dann grob 50% mehr Zellen produziert, als in Systemen verbaut wurden.
Ist das realistisch und glaubwürdig?

Mich irritieren diese Zahlen sehr. Weiss hier jemand etwas Erhellendes dazu mitzuteilen?

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.190.252 von ehrenwort am 22.03.10 15:02:48

da ist ein Kunde:

Flextronics & Q-Cells kooperieren
Der EMS-Dienstleister Flextronics und der deutsche Solarzellen-Hersteller Q-Cells haben eine Produktionsvereinbarung unterzeichnet.

Erste Schritte zur Neupositionierung hatte das Unternehmen bereits im Jahr 2008 mit dem Eintritt in die Produktion von Dünnschichtmodulen sowie der Errichtung großer Freiflächenanlagen eingeleitet. In Zukunft wird das Produktportfolio sowohl um Projekte im mittleren Maßstab als auch um kristalline Module ergänzt, heißt es in einer Mitteilung.

Für die Produktion dieser neuen Module ist Q-Cells mit dem Unternehmen Flextronics eine Produktionspartnerschaft eingegangen: Flextronics errichtet in Malaysia nach den technischen Spezifikationen und hohen Qualitätsvorgaben von Q-Cells eine Produktionslinie für Module mit einer Kapazität von 200 Megawattpeak (MWp), die mit Solarzellen von Q-Cells bestückt werden.

Ein erstes Modul wurde bereits Mitte März dieses Jahres produziert.

[R-BgO]

das ist gut für die Margen...:

China makers hike solar wafer contract prices; Taiwan competitors to follow suit

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Friday 26 March 2010]

China-based solar-grade polycrystalline silicon wafer suppliers have raised contract quotes for the 6-inch segment from US$3.5 per wafer in early March to about US$3.96 due to booming orders, according to industry sources in Taiwan. Their Taiwan-based competitors who are seeing tight capacities are also negotiating contract price hikes with clients, the sources said.

Because of China-based makers' sharp price hikes, some client are shifting their orders from China to Taiwan, the sources said. Taiwan-based makers originally planned to hike contract prices from the current US$3.05 to US$3.2 for the second quarter, but the strong demand is now motivating them to consider an even higher price at US$3.3-3.4, the sources noted.

[R-BgO]

The PV Market in 2009 – How Much Did It Really Grow By?
29 March 2010 | By Mark Osborne | Editor's Blog


Sam Wilkinson, PV Research Analyst at IMS Research.This guest blog was written by Sam Wilkinson, PV Research Analyst at IMS Research.

The size of the PV market in 2009 is currently under much debate and many conflicting numbers are floating around the industry. Analysts at IMS Research are currently analysing all areas of the PV supply chain and assessing all measurements of the market to present a clear picture of last year’s outcome. We have analysed three different data points: shipments of PV modules, shipments of PV inverters and the number and size of installations in more than 50 countries globally. This three-pronged approach has sized the 2009 PV market at between 7 and 8 GW. A considerable increase from the 6 GW recorded in 2008 considering the awful start to the year.

In our recently released report “The World Market for PV Cells & Modules,” analysed data from all of the leading suppliers and estimates that shipments of PV modules grew by over 30% in 2009 to 8.5 GW. First Solar was the first supplier to ship over 1 GW of PV modules in a year, increasing its market share and becoming the largest supplier worldwide. All other major suppliers also recorded growth, particularly in the second half of the year when demand surged and prices began to stabilise.

The PV inverter market also surprised and showed impressive growth. Market leader SMA will shortly announce that its shipments grew by over 50% to 3.4 GW in 2009 and IMS Research’s latest report on PV inverters also revealed that the majority of other suppliers’ shipments grew significantly resulting in more than 8 GW of PV inverters were shipped in 2009.

Earlier in 2009, we had previously estimated that just over 6GW of PV installations were completed and connected to the grid in 2009, resulting in a difference of over 2GW between completed systems and shipments. However, as PV components (particularly PV inverters) are known to have been in short supply at the end of the year, and anything shipped was likely to have been installed almost immediately (some suppliers are reported to have been transporting inverters by air in order to get systems connected by December 31st), we have since re-analysed each country’s PV demand and has found that new installations grew much more than originally predicted.

This new analysis of demand from more than 50 countries shows that new PV installations reached at least 7 GW in 2009. As predicted, Italy’s grid connection figures for 2009 were recently revised upwards by the GSE, to over 580 MW and final numbers are likely to be around the 600 MW mark. The number of PV systems connected to the grid in Germany in December will also be announced shortly, but IMS Research estimates that total installations for the year will reach 3-3.5 GW.

So, although there are a number of different opinions on 2009’s performance being touted, IMS Research has analysed the market from several points of the supply chain from PV cells and modules to inverters, right down to surveying system integrators and producing country-level demand models. All these data points we have show that the market definitely grew at a double-digit rate in 2009.

Whilst there are some clear differences in 2009 market sizes depending on the method chosen to measure it, this is not surprising given the different lead times associated with module and inverter shipments and when a new PV plant being ‘counted’ as an ‘official’ installation. Whichever method you use to measure the market, it’s clear to see that the PV market grew substantially in 2009. We will be announcing more results shortly.

[R-BgO]

Michael Kanellos 03 30 10
Solar’s Big Question: What Happens in the Second Half?

Wie geht es Ihnen, Deutschland?

Phoenix, AZ -- Will the second half of 2010 look like the first half of 2009? That's the big fear in the solar industry, according to speakers at the 2010 Solar Summit sponsored by Greentech Media.

Solar is growing. Make no mistake. Globally, 9 gigawatts of solar may get deployed this year, according to GTM Research. That would be 50 percent growth over 2009. But declining prices for panels and factory capacity will squeeze margins. And changes to subsidy programs may create a situation where demand slows as the year goes on.

"That's what we are all holding our breath about," said Jim Pierobon, vice president of policy and marketing development at Standard Solar, during a meeting in the hallway.

As usual, the big factor determining the health of the industry is Germany. In the first half of 2009, only around 500 megawatts of solar were installed in Germany. In the second half of 2009, approximately 2.5 gigawatts of solar were installed in the country, according to GTM Research senior analyst Shayle Kann.

"That's a fivefold increase in the second half of the year," he said.

Germany, however, is set to readjust its feed-in tariff on July 1. The tariff for rooftop installations will likely decline by 16 percent and 11 percent for ground-mounted installations. The industry may not sink into the funk it found itself in in 2008 and 2009 as the German market slows, but it will likely, palpably slow.

"Germany will quickly lose its shine in the second half," said Kann. "There is a rush to get projects (in Germany) in the ground now."

What does this mean for module makers? By the middle of the year, modules might sell for $1.50 to $1.75 per watt in Germany. But if demand dips, the prices may have to dip toward $1.35 a watt in Germany. Not everyone will be able to sell at that price and make money, said Kann.

How bad the drop is depends on a variety of factors. Italy could soak up a lot of the modules now coming out of factories. Italy installed 544 megawatts of solar in 2009 and 47 percent of that total came in the last two months of the year, Kann said. The margins for independent power providers in the country is quite healthy, helped in part by high prices for conventional power in Italy. Up to a gigawatt could get installed in Italy this year.

"But it can't replace Germany," he said.

The U.S. market will likely grow by nearly 50 percent with 830 megawatts of solar planted on roofs and in the ground this year. Subsidies in five states -- Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California and New Mexico -- have even created a situation where solar in commercial installations can actually cost less than grid power. A commercial solar installation in Hawaii could be constructed to produce power that is 17 percent less than power from the grid. Power from hypothetical commercial installations in New York and Nevada are only two percent of grid power, when all subsidies are factored in. Over time, the U.S. will be the largest market in the world.

"We're going to see this widespread grid parity on a subsidized basis" in the U.S., said Kann.

But again, the united nations of solar may not be enough to offset the anticipated torpor on the Rhine in the second half of 2010. Grid "parity" may also be a heading toward false summit, said Marc Romito, renewable energy program manager for Tucson Electric Power, unless issues like grid interconnection can be worked out.

Other interesting tidbits:

--U.S. solar manufacturing will continue to grow. In 2008, only 17 PV manufacturing facilities existed in the U.S., said GTM analyst Shyam Mehta. By 2012, there could be 51, judging by plans already announced.

--170 thin film manufacturers exist, but only a few will ever become full-fledged mass manufacturers, according to Mehta. Twenty new amorphous silicon manufacturers came into the market last year.

--By 2015, silicon solar panels should cost 80 cents per watt while thin-film solar panels should average around 55 cents a watt. The best amorphous silicon makers can produce modules for $1 now, said Mehta. The few copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) manufacturers are at $1.1 per watt.

--But, again, factory capacity and demand won't move in perfect sync, so expect surpluses as time goes on.

"We could have oversupply as early as the second half of 2010," said Mehta.

[R-BgO]

Guest blog: Photovoltaics—The time is now for pragmatic leadership
06 April 2010 | By Tom Cheyney | Editor's Blog

*This guest blog is written by Glenn Harris, CEO of SunCentric.

Last week, Reuters and other news outlets reported that Solyndra’s future was in doubt. With just short of $1 billion in equity financing and more than $500 million in Federal loan guarantees, the company is poised to be another solar failure, this time of massive proportions. Solyndra’s product has novel characteristics and certainly produces electricity, but it’s basically a tube coated with thin film that is currently a lot more expensive per watt than regular old solar modules.

Some of us with long experience in the solar business wonder when enough will be enough. With the vast majority of effort in the solar world going to scale proven 40-year-old-plus silicon-based solar technology, why are we bothering with these expensive new technology development projects?

We know all the arguments about the need to produce terawatt hours, or more, of clean energy and the obligatory dollar forecasts that get investor juices flowing. However, it seems to us that most investors don’t have the solar industry domain knowledge or technical acumen to determine who a winner might be. While major technical advancements are possible, you can’t always predict the timelines--and you certainly can’t predict the ultimate cost.

For example, it took more than 50 years for the photographic industry, backed by consistent corporate funding, to figure out how to repeatedly coat emulsion onto wide roll material, and make a significant profit doing it. Why would we expect the thin-film PV start-up crowd, which has an even more complicated process, to do it in 5 or 10 years with just a moderate amount of VC funding and only recently significant government support? First Solar was hardly an overnight success, with a genesis dating back to the 1980s and the fortunate long-term support of a very substantial and patient angel investor.

This said, there are some good, practical ideas out there that can bear fruit in the near term and are worth pursuing.

Skyline Solar’s concentrator PV solution is scalable and deployable, does not need water for cooling, and uses existing high-efficiency silicon cells. It will probably beat the deployed cost and energy harvest of tracked crystalline-silicon flat-panel installations by 10-20% in desert regions.

Another company to watch is Applied Quantum Technology, which makes a 6-in.-square CIGS cells on very thin glass that are said to be drop-in replacements for standard silicon PV cells. AQT uses standard hard disk-drive tools to make its cells and will have extremely low capex, very good efficiencies, and possibly the lowest cell cost imaginable in the near term.

Both of these solutions use common materials and leverage existing manufacturing methods and technologies to drive out cost. With a bit more funding, both companies seem to have a clear path to commercialization and eventual profitability. We hope they get a chance to prove it.

What we need today is pragmatic leadership and situational awareness, so that “solar, failure, and another billion dollars” don’t become all-too-common topics of dinner-party conversation. In order for such leadership and intelligent pragmatism to take root, certain solar industry attributes need to be recognized:

* Our regulated and subsidized industry requires extreme patience and is not anything like a free market.
* Investors in solar who think that high returns should happen in a few years should be called what they are--gamblers.
* The U.S. Federal government will almost certainly bet wrong when it invests in solar technology.
* Government subsidy programs, which we will need for a long time, create only somewhat predictable stair-step up—and down—demand.
* Capital will flow too early or too late and won’t match market requirements. This will cause intermittent shortage and oversupply, and have a life-or-death impact on many promising solar companies.
* Subsidized grid parity will be reached on a utility-by-utility, region-by-region basis starting soon and will continue over some decades. Reaching subsidized grid parity does not guarantee huge industry growth.
* There are only a handful of proven operational leaders in solar that can execute even a realistic business plan.
* There are not enough solar mentors to "school up" the talent entering the industry.
* Solar’s upgrade from “alternative energy” to “mainstream energy” need not and should not wait for technology breakthroughs.
* Tens of thousands of companies that build businesses with existing or evolving products, that employ people long term, operate profitably, and deliver many gigawatt-hours of electricity are certainly preferable to hyped-up companies that promise too much or grow too fast, die, and ultimately deliver no gigawatt-hours.

If Solyndra fails, we can expect an even further chilling of the solar investment climate. That would not be a good outcome. Given three to five more years of runway, Solyndra may likely deliver a product that will be profitable and make a major contribution to our clean energy requirements. Given the stakes, let’s hope the company gets the chance to finish what it started.

In the meantime, let’s take traditional silicon-based photovoltaics, appreciate all the incremental improvements they will deliver, and massively scale.

[R-BgO]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100407PR200.html

[R-BgO]

International, China-based suppliers hike poly-Si prices for 2Q10


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 7 April 2010]

International suppliers of polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) material have raised their contract prices from US$50-55/kg in the first quarter of 2010 to US$55/kg for the second quarter, while China-based makers have increased quotes from 395 yuan (US$57.9)/kg to 420-430 yuan/kg, according to industry sources.

Second-quarter contract prices for solar-grade crystalline silicon wafers have also increased, the sources indicated.

[R-BgO]

Prices for crystalline silicon PV modules slip to US$1.8/watt

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Thursday 8 April 2010]

Main makers of crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) modules have lowered their quotes from US$1.9/watt in March 2010 to US$1.8/watt currently, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

The reduction was prompted by price cuts by China-based makers, who together account for a large portion of the global capacity, the sources said.

However the retail price level for PV modules in the European market has risen from US$2.25/watt in March to US$2.3/watt, the sources indicated.

[Slurry]

Die letzten Beiträge sind qualitativ durchwachsen.

- Solyndra guckt in die Röhre - Wahnsinn wie auf dem toten Gaul rumgeritten wird - Bei $6/Wp Kosten und $3,2/Wp ASP ist aus die Maus, Schicht im Schacht, Ende Gelände

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solydra-gets-war…

- High inventory levels my ass. Trina, Yingly, Suntech, JA, Q-Cells et al haben niedrigste inventories und sind z.T. für 2010 schon ausverkauft

- Silizium ist über die letzte Wochen stabil oder fällt leicht, Wafer steigen seit 10 Wochen, Zellen steigen seit 6 Wochen, und bei Modulen geht die Post ab nächster Woche ab

http://pvinsights.com/index.php

Slurry

[R-BgO]

April 12, 2010

San Francisco, CA, USA: Solarbuzz Reports Soaring German Solar Photovoltaic Demand in December; Global PV Market Size in 2009 Raised to 7.3 GW

Newly connected solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Germany soared to 1.46 GW in December, almost three times the previous record rate of monthly connections of 0.50 GW set in November. This means that 38% of 2009 PV grid connections in the country were recorded in the final month of the year.

As a consequence of this late surge, the 2009 PV market in Germany reached 3.87 GW and the global PV market rose to 7.30 GW, up 20% on prior year installations. This is an increase of 0.87 GW on the previous Solarbuzz 2009 market size determination.

According to the latest edition of the Solarbuzz QUARTERLY report, Germany accounted for 63% of global demand in fourth quarter, taking into account the new program statistics released last week. Fourth quarter 2009 global PV market reached a record high. At 3.73 GW it was more than seven times larger than in the first quarter of 2009, following massive growth in European demand through the year. In addition to Germany, the end-market ramp in the final quarter was also strongly driven by Italy and the Czech Republic.

The sharp rise in German demand in 4Q 2009 not only sets the platform for strong first-half 2010 global demand, but it also exacerbates the pressure on the German government to respond. At approaching 4 GW of newly connected capacity in 2009, the German market is running well ahead of the 2.5-3.5 GW per annum path specified in the currently proposed amendment to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG).

"The current EEG policy amendment is based on a target market range that will be overshot by a large margin in 2010, so the Government may yet choose to cut back tariffs mid-year even more aggressively than currently planned." said Craig Stevens, President of Solarbuzz, a part of The NPD Group. "Even without such revision, the PV industry will need to plan on a major re-balancing of global supply and demand in both mid-2010 and the start of 2011, worse than occurred from the policy adjustment in Spain in 2008."

For the moment, early 2010 market strength is creating a period of relative pricing stability compared to the 2009 turmoil. Having fallen 22% between first and fourth quarter 2009 after the decline of the Spanish market at the end of 2008, crystalline silicon module factory-gate prices are projected to show a slight upturn in Europe through most of second quarter 2010.

Once German policy adjustments have been implemented, second half 2010 and early 2011 corporate outcomes will become dependent on the discipline of downstream companies to manage inventories and on the manufacturers to adjust production levels in line with shifts in the quarterly demand pattern.

Solarbuzz clients for its Marketbuzz and Solarbuzz QUARTERLY reports are being provided data updates. 2009 government grid connection statistics in several countries are still subject to revision and Solarbuzz will take account of any subsequent adjustments in its Solarbuzz QUARTERLY reports through 2010.

[R-BgO]

Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Green2V brings hundreds of jobs to Rio Rancho
New Mexico Business Weekly - by Dennis Domrzalski NMBW Staff


A new solar energy company said Wednesday it will spend $500 million over the next five years to build a 1 million-square-foot plant in Rio Rancho that eventually will employ 1,500 and have an annual payroll of $64 million.

Green2V CEO Bill Sheppard, who ran Intel Corp.’s Rio Rancho plant in the 1990s, said the company expects to break ground on the 124-acre site in the next few weeks.

“Part of the reason for making the announcement today is that we are starting to go through the public process of going through planning and permits. We’ve got our first facility designed and have chosen the contractor already,” Sheppard said. “We expect to go to contract next week.”

Green2V will manufacture solar cells and modular glass frames and will design, install, operate and finance the systems, Sheppard said.

“We are a fully integrated renewable energy company, and our motto is ‘Sand to kilowatts,’” Sheppard said. “We will take sand and make wafers and glass and produce solar cells and the modules and the frames that the glass will go in.”

Sheppard said he and the company’s seven other founders have 220 collective years of experience in the high-tech industry. He said Green2V’s approach of controlling the entire manufacturing process — from obtaining the sand to producing wafers and glass — will help reduce the cost of solar-generated electricity.

“Although there have been numerous renewable projects announced in the United States, a small percentage of them are ready to go to shovel” because the cost of renewable energy is still higher than coal or nuclear-generated power and firms can’t get financing for their projects, Sheppard said.

“We will address our costs by controlling the entire food chain,” he added.

The deal has been in the works for months, and involves the sale of 124 acres of land held by the New Mexico State Land Office to the city of Rio Rancho, said Land Office spokeswoman Kristin Haase.

Rio Rancho will purchase the three separate tracts from the state Land Office for $6.9 million with money provided by Green2V, a city spokesman said. The proceeds from the sale will go into the state’s Land Grant Permanent Fund.

Rio Rancho has committed to fast-tracking the project and installing $7.2 million of public roads and sewer infrastructure, a city spokesman said.

Green2V also will seek $500 million in industrial revenue bonds from Rio Rancho. IRBs waive certain taxes, particularly on equipment, and are paid off by companies, typically over a 20- to 25-year period.

Sheppard said the company is backed “by a group of private equity individuals who bring the ability to finance small and large projects.”

The firm hopes to begin delivering its solar energy systems to customers by the summer of 2011, Sheppard said.

Initial funding for the project will come from GP3 Ltd. of Los Angeles, and its CEO George Peters. The firm has committed to purchase the first round of IRBs issued by Rio Rancho.

“The demand for solar energy is already outpacing the available supply and infrastructure,” Peters said. “Green2V has the business model, management experience and the vision to intersect the market at the most opportune time. We are excited to be part of that journey.”

Gov. Bill Richardson said the project ultimately could lead to 3,000 new jobs in the state.

Read more: Green2V brings hundreds of jobs to Rio Rancho - New Mexico Business Weekly:

[R-BgO]

NEA: No Draft Pending for New Energy Stimulus

Posted on Apr 08, 2010 | 17:04

The previously rumored regulatory draft for a new energy stimulus program will not be released in the near future, said Shi Lishan, vice director of the National Energy Administration's New Energy Department, 21st Century Business Herald reported April 8.

China's current system of tenders for demonstrative photovoltaic projects is relatively fair and reasonable, said Shi, and can promote competition and encourage cost reduction and the commercialization of photovoltaic products. Shi said that consensus has not been reached on the policy, and there is no timetable for its release.

Reports In May 2009 said that a soon-to-be-released regulatory draft for new energy stimulus might increase China's 2020 wind power capacity target from 30GW to 100-150GW. China is targeting 10-20GW of solar power capacity by 2020, according to NDRC officials.

[R-BgO]

Nette grundsätzliche Überlegung zur Profitabilität von Solar:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/why-i-am-short-f…

[R-BgO]

Global poly-Si price approaches production cost of China makers


DIGITIMES special reports - E-book report

Advertisement
Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 15 April 2010]

With global polysilicon (poly-Si) price stabling at US$50-55 per kilogram, which is approaching or even lower than the costs of some secondary China-based poly-Si makers, elimination of less competitive players will continue in China, according to industry insiders.

Prices of China-produced poly-Si rose recently to 420-430 yuan (US$61-63) per kilogram from 395 yuan per kilogram in the first quarter.

China's poly-Si import in the first quarter jumped 65% on year, despite claims by domestic makers that they now have much higher production, said sources from China's first-tier poly-Si companies. The sources remarked that some production and yield data from China makers should be met with skepticism.

To lower reliance on foreign-produced poly-Si and satisfy strong domestic demand, Chinese makers, with government assistance that includes direct financing and tougher import barriers, will continue to expand capacity and improve price competitiveness, the sources said.

Though it is apparent that China is determined to support the poly-Si industry and help its makers to compete internationally, historical evidence from other industry reforms suggests that quick policy adjustments could be expected if invested companies continue to underperform, according to the sources. Without government assistance, elimination of less competitive poly-Si makers will intensify in the near future.

[R-BgO]

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100416PD208.html

[R-BgO]

Air traffic suspension disrupts Taiwan solar cell supply to Europe


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 20 April 2010]

The suspension of air transportation in Western Europe has disrupted Taiwan's crystalline silicon solar cell shipments to the region. Since imports account for more than 70% of Europe's solar cell market, solar module production on the continent could take a major hit.

Sources from Taiwan-based solar cell companies said that inventory levels have risen, especially since the industry has been ramping up material procurement and production in anticipation to Germany's upcoming subsidy cuts. However, short-term sales will not be affected by the ongoing solar cell shortage, the sources indicated, adding that shipments can be transferred to customers in the US, Japan and China.

Due to their small size and fragility, and need for special packaging, solar cells are typically shipped via air to limit shipping times. Air shipments from Taiwan to Europe take 2-3 days compared with about one month by sea. The higher concentration of salt in the air during sea transportation also causes problems as it can corrode the cells.

Some solar cells are currently being held up at Taiwan's international airport and Bangkok, but no orders have been canceled as yet, according to industry sources. As long as Europe-based solar module makers receive shipments by June, there is still plenty of time ahead of Germany's subsidy reduction, sources said.

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http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/barclays_capital_analyst_rais…

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http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-china-putting…

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http://seekingalpha.com/article/200743-solar-stocks-yinglis-…

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SunPower-Flextronics deal presages boom in solar panel contract manufacturing, says iSuppli


Press release, April 26; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Monday 26 April 2010]

Thursday's announced deal between SunPower Corp and Flextronics International represents the early stages of a boom in solar panel contract manufacturing driven by a rapid expansion in demand, according to iSuppli Corp.

SunPower said it has partnered with Flextronics to begin manufacturing solar panels in Milpitas, California by the end of 2010. The company said the California location will allow it to quickly and cost-effectively supply solar panels to solar installations at homes, power plants and commercial and public facilities throughout the Western United States. Flextronics is expected to produce 75MW worth of SunPower solar panels annually.

"iSuppli believes SunPower's move is part of an emerging trend in the solar market that closely parallels the situation in the electronics market in early 1990s," said Greg Sheppard, chief research officer for iSuppli. "Faced with rapidly exploding demand, the need to produce products close to end markets and the requirement to obtain sufficient capital, electronic OEMs in the early 1990s turned to electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies like Flextronics for help. This led to a massive boom in electronics outsourcing and explosive growth in the EMS business. In the early 2010s, a new EMS boom is starting up, this time in the solar panel business."

Contract manufacturers in 2010 will manufacture 1.1GW worth of solar panels, up 200% from 369MW in 2009. The remainder of production will be accounted for by dedicated solar panel makers and other firms. By 2014, contract manufacturing of solar panels will nearly quadruple, rising to 4.1GW.

One major factor causing solar panel makers to turn to EMS providers is the rapid expansion of the market. iSuppli predicts solar installations will rise to 13.6GW in 2010, up 93.6 percent from 7.0GW in 2009.

"Solar panel makers now are running their factories at 90% of capacity, straining their capability to meet demand," Sheppard said. "Additional production capacity is in critical need right now. Outsourcing of manufacturing provides access to that essential capacity."

The SunPower-Flextronics deal and other solar contract manufacturing work also allows for localized production.

"Panel production conducted close to the end-market can minimize logistics costs associated with shipping, breakage and inventory," Sheppard observed. "In a market where every penny per megawatt counts, this can help tremendously."

Sheppard also noted that access to capital to invest in production is challenging for panel suppliers to obtain. Outsourcing mitigates this challenge.

Finally, working with EMS providers reduces risk for companies entering the solar value chain. For example, leading solar cell maker Q-Cells SE now is working with Flextronics also as it diversifies into the panel business.

[R-BgO]

aus dem MEMC-CC von gestern:

Ahmad Chatila

I think the discussion has flipped from the price is not good enough to the volume that you're giving me is not good
enough. And I don't know if they have the long-range view required to tell us what's going to happen in the future.
Why do I say that? Because now we run SunEdison, so we have a clearer view of what's going on across the value
chain. And we’re not convinced how sustainable the demand is. I mean, I want to remind you what happened here.
So we walk into the year thinking that the market’s going to increase but not that much. Then Germany, there was
noise in there about reducing the feed and tariff rates. All of a sudden there was like an absolute anarchy in how
much we can build power plants in Germany across many, many, many, many, many installers. And in that situation,
then the demand for wafers skyrocketed. So then our subcons raised price. Our customers wanted more wafers.
And that's what's happening. But we don't know what's going to happen in Germany in the second half of the year.
We have no view of it. On the other plants, I would say, where we are very aggressive in terms of building our
pipeline, which is Italy, Spain, Greece, France, U.S., Canada, India, I think there's a lot of double ordering there and
we are worried about it. So we are very cautious about what's happening in the Solar Materials business. We will not
make short-term decisions. We know that right now the price on subcontractor’s high and the demand is high, but we
are not sure if it's going to stay like that forever. Just imagine if few gigawatts were built in Q1 in Germany, what do
you think the German government will do? I really don't know, but I don't think they’ll be pleased about it then and I
don't know their reaction’s going to be to the feed and tariff rates. So we are very cautious about that market.

[R-BgO]

Das Volumen wird zum Problem:

http://www.photon.de/news_archiv/details.aspx?cat=News_Archi…


"Volle Netze und sinkende Preise


29.04.2010: Zur vierten Solar Electric Utility Conference von PHOTON sehen die Referenten großen Handlungsbedarf, um einen weiteren Ausbau der Photovoltaik zu gewährleisten


Ausbau der Infrastruktur und bei der Regelung des Preismechanismus an der Strombörse – dies waren zwei Themen, die die Solar Electric Utility Conference von PHOTON am Donnerstag beherrschten


Der rapide wachsende Photovoltaikzubau in Deutschland wirft immer drängender die Frage nach der Integration des Solarstroms in die Netze sowie die Auswirkungen auf die Strompreise auf. Dies legten die Redner zu PHOTON’s vierter Solar Electric Utility Conference am heutigen Donnerstag in Stuttgart dar und erläuterten aber auch verschiedene Lösungsansätze.
Wie wenig Zeit in Deutschland bleibt, wo im vergangenen Jahr 3,8 Gigawatt neu errichtet wurden, legten vor allem die Vorträge von drei Referenten nahe. Rainer Bäsmann vom Netzbetreiber N-Ergie Netz GmbH aus Nürnberg sprach über die Herausforderungen, die täglich durch die Anmeldung neuer Solaranlagen entstehen. 200.000 Hausanschlüsse und 20.000 Photovoltaikanlagen mit rund 380 Megawatt Leistung zählt N-Ergie im eigenen Netzgebiet, installiert vorwiegend auf dem Land. Das Netz ist so ausgelastet, dass für neu gemeldete Anlagen häufig netzverstärkende Maßnahmen durchgeführt werden müssen. Dies kann das Unternehmen aber nicht mehr kurzfristig gewährleisten. „Deswegen ist es oft notwendig, die Leistung von Anlagen zu begrenzen, um Ausbaumaßnahmen vorzunehmen“, sagte Bäsmann und kündigte an, bald eine Karte mit betroffenen Regionen zu veröffentlichen. Die Auswirkungen der zunehmenden Solarstromleistung auf die Strompreise seien nun zu sehen, sagte Sven Bode von Arrhenius Consult. Ausgehend von dem von der Bundesregierung zu Grunde gelegten jährlichen Zubau von 2,5 bis 3,5 Gigawatt wird eine installierte Leistung von 42 Gigawatt bis 2020 erwartet. Die Strompreise im Sommer würden tagsüber dann in den Keller gehen. „Wer wird das zahlen wollen?“, fragte Bode und machte einen Vorschlag, um die Entwicklung zu verlangsamen: den Zubau zu deckeln. Einen...

[R-BgO]

von NEF

-wenn sie nachträglich die Einspeisevergütung für Anlagen ändern, bekommen die fremdfinanzierten viel Spass...:

"Deep cuts in the PV tariff are expected - in the order of 25% - reflecting recent sharp falls in the cost of solar modules. However the sector has been rattled by rumours that Madrid might decide not just to cut the tariffs for future projects, but also slash the tariffs prevailing for operating plants. Industry minister Miguel Sebastian has ruled out making "retroactive" cuts, but this assurance means only that he will not claw back revenues already given to existing plants for output in previous years.

The government appears to believe that it could still cut future tariffs for existing plants, on the basis of small print in the legislation that makes it possible to amend tariffs if operators are seen to be making high returns. Estimates by the Spanish government, and seen by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, are that feed-in tariffs on existing plants could cost Spain some EUR 126bn over the next 25 years.

However any move to hit the income stream of existing plants would hit renewable energy project development in Europe. Investors have flocked to wind and solar projects, in particular, on the understanding that tariffs were effectively set in stone for many years and that therefore relatively low-risk returns are possible. If governments start unpicking those tariff awards, then it would likely deter many investors and bankers not just in Spain but also in other countries with feed-in tariff regimes, such as Italy, Germany, France and the Czech Republic.

The Spanish government is expected to announce its decision on solar tariffs in the next few weeks. The clean energy industry will be hoping that Madrid has been pursuing the tried-and-trusted tactic of scaring the market so that the eventual decision appears conciliatory. On the other hand, if it does prune future tariffs, then there could be legal action between Madrid and PV operators.

The worries about Spanish tariffs are posing a major threat to this spring's crop of stock market flotations by clean energy companies. Several Spanish project developers were expected to list, but T-Solar has already postponed its IPO and Renovalia's offering remains in the balance. Engyco, a Jersey-registered company founded by solar industry veteran Alexander Voigt, says that it still intends to raise up to EUR 1bn in a listing in London.

However the uncertainty in Spain is making it an uphill struggle for Engyco, and its initial timeframe for floating, of the end of April, has already slipped past."

[R-BgO]

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/05…

[king_of_fools]

Interessant. Mal sehen, was dann in Italien passiert!

http://solarserver.de/solarmagazin/news.html#news12744

Italien will Solar-Investitionen erleichtern, Genehmigungsverfahren werden vereinfacht

Italien will Investitionen in Solartechnik zukünftig deutlich erleichtern, berichtet die Kanzlei Rödl & Partner in einer Pressemitteilung. Das italienische Parlament habe am 12. Mai 2010 ein Gesetz verabschiedet, das die Regierung ermächtigt, das vereinfachte Genehmigungsverfahren für die Errichtung von Solaranlagen bis zu einer Nennleistung von einem Megawatt (MW) landesweit einzuführen. Das neue Gesetz wird ein Beitrag zur Erhöhung der Rechtsunsicherheit für Investitionen in Italien sein und die Lücke füllen, die dadurch entstanden ist, dass die in einigen Regionen (u.a. Apulien) bereits eingeführten, vereinfachten Verfahren mangels Gesetzgebungskompetenz durch Entscheidungen des italienischen Verfassungsgerichts für verfassungswidrig erklärt worden waren. "Damit wird endlich in Italien der Weg frei werden für landesweite ungehinderte und sichere Investitionen in Solaranlagen", erklärt Svenja Bartels, Rechtsanwältin und Leitender Associate Partner für Energierecht von Rödl & Partner Padua. "Sie können Projekte im Bereich Erneuerbarer Energien nur finanzieren, wenn ein schnelles und rechtssicheres Genehmigungsverfahren gewährleistet ist. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass das Interesse der Investoren nun wieder deutlich zunehmen wird."


Bau von Photovoltaik-Anlagen bis 1 MW wird einfacher

Das neue Gesetz wird die Errichtung von Photovoltaik-Anlagen bis zu einer Leistung von einem Megawatt im gesamten italienischen Staatsgebiet nach dem vereinfachten DIA-Verfahren (Denuncia di inizio di attività - D.I.A.) erlauben und tritt 15 Tage nach Veröffentlichung im Gesetzblatt in Kraft. Es ist Teil eines Gesetzespakets zur Umsetzung verschiedener Richtlinien der Europäischen Kommission (Legge Comunitaria 2009). Eine der Richtlinien (2009/28/EC) sieht auch vor, dass die EU-Mitgliedstaaten Zulassungsverfahren für Anlagen zur Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien vereinfachen und die Genehmigungsprozesse für kleinere Anlagen möglichst schlank gestalten. Die italienische Regierung muss nun bis zum 5.12.2010 detaillierte Vorgaben zu dem vereinfachten Genehmigungsverfahren ausarbeiten.


Rechtsunsicherheit für Anlagenbetreiber ist künftig vom Tisch

Seit der Serie von Entscheidungen des italienischen Verfassungsgerichts zum DIA-Verfahren unter anderem in Apulien herrscht Unsicherheit, inwieweit bereits genehmigte Projekte erneut überprüft werden müssten und deren Realisierung gebremst werden könnte (Entscheidung 119/2010 veröffentlicht am 31.03.2010). "Die Rechtsunsicherheit für die Anlagenbetreiber ist damit zukünftig vom Tisch, je nach Ausgestaltung der neuen Regelung auch für die Vergangenheit", zeigt sich Roberto Pera, Rechtsanwalt und Managing Partner der Rödl & Partner-Niederlassung in Rom, erleichtert. "Dies ist eine sehr gute Entwicklung für alle Investoren in Italien. Dabei ist zu beachten, dass das Gesetz nicht nur Photovoltaik-Projekte, sondern sämtliche Genehmigungsverfahren im Bereich erneuerbare Energien unterhalb der Grenze von 1 Megawatt umfasst."


Einspeisevergütung und überdurchschnittliche Sonnenscheindauer sorgen für Solar-Boom

Italien erlebt derzeit ein nahezu ungebremstes Photovoltaik-Wachstum. Die im europäischen Vergleich hohe Einspeisevergütung verbunden mit der überdurchschnittlichen Sonnenscheindauer haben Italien zu einem der attraktivsten Investitionsstandorte der internationalen Photovoltaik-Branche gemacht. Zahlreiche Banken haben sich an Unternehmungen der Energiewirtschaft beteiligt, um Projekte zur Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien zu finanzieren. Systembetreiber erhalten eine Förderung von bis zu 47 Cent pro Kilowattstunde Solarstrom, hinzu kommen die Einnahmen aus dem Stromverkauf. Eine Solarstromanlage kann sich dadurch innerhalb von 8 bis 10 Jahren amortisieren. Deutsche Unternehmen gehören zu den wichtigsten Investoren.

Grüße kof

[R-BgO]

die export-tax kannte ich noch nicht...

Poly-Si pricing for 2H10 to be determined in mid-June


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 27 May 2010]

There will be a more clear-cut direction for poly-Si quotes for the second half of 2010 by mid-June, according to industry sources.

If system installation demand indeed drops substantially after Germany's subsidy cuts in July, poly-Si producers could feel order decreases beginning as early as mid-June, and hence, poly-Si price changes can be considered an early indicator for the solar sector in the second half.

Poly-Si price quotes have remained stable between US$50-55 thus far in 2010, albeit some second-quarter express orders did exceed the range.

Some industry observers have pointed to aggressive capacity expansions in China as a contributor to possible oversupply in the second half. However, judging from the 65% on year growth of poly-Si imports in the first quarter, it is apparent that China's own capacity is still insufficient to fulfill domestic demand. Due to a 17% export tax, most poly-Si produced domestically is used within the country.

The growing tension between North and South Korea is another issue to watch since South Korea is home to OCI, a top five poly-Si producer globally. The company has the capacity to produce 17,500MT annually and its customers include US-based Evergreen Solar, Germany's Duetsche Solar, China's Suntech Power and Motech Industry and Sino-American Silicon Products of Taiwan.

Most industry observers believe a conflict between North and South Korea is highly unlikely, and even if war is declared, the effects on poly-Si prices will be short term. Capacity expansion in other regions will be able to make up for shipment interruptions from South Korea, industry sources said.

[R-BgO]

sehr interessant:

http://www.linkedin.com/share?viewLink=&sid=s38531070&url=ht…

[R-BgO]

Taiwan solar cell makers maintain 3Q10 quotes despite 10% price drop by solar module companies in Europe


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 2 June 2010]

Taiwan-based solar cell makers have yet to adjust their third-quarter quotes despite a 10% price cut by some first-tier solar module companies in Europe, according to industry sources. Taiwan's cell makers are mostly running at close to full capacity and believe, for them, pricing by China's solar companies is more indicative of the market, the sources said.

Simon Tsuo, chairman of solar cell maker Motech Industry, indicated that supply remains tight at the moment, and no clients have requested lower price quotes. Since most first-tier solar module companies in Europe are Germany based, the price cut is not surprising, he added.

Solar module makers in Germany have lowered third-quarter prices to offset the feed-in-tariff (FIT) slash on July 1, meaning other players on the continent most likely had to follow suit to stay competitive. Solar companies in Germany are expected to be more aggressive overseas to replace a potential demand drop in their home market.

Besides a generous FIT policy, Germany's solar sector also receives strong support from the government such as financing and efficient administrative response, and hence the country's solar companies are some of the most profitable in the world.

China-based solar module makers, which also have operations both upstream and down, are expected to soon announce their third-quarter quotes. By then, there will be a more precise direction for wafer, cell and module prices for the second half.

Recently, several first-tier module makers in Europe notified clients that third-quarter quotes will be lowered from the current 1.95 euros (US$2.38) per Watt to 1.73-1.80 euros per Watt. Solar system installers in the region that source modules for their own module vendors reportedly will also reduce prices to 1.50 euros per watt from 1.75-1.80 euros per Watt.

In the first-half of 2010, prices for solar wafers produced by Taiwan and China-based makers saw the biggest jump. For solar cells, Taiwan makers quoted more aggressively compared with their counterparts in China, which caused Taiwan-made modules to rise in price. Module quotes from China and Europe-based companies, on the other hand, have remained relatively stable.

[R-BgO]

Samsung, Hyundai and LG pose threat to China and Taiwan solar players


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 17 June 2010]

Many participants of Intersolar came away impressed, but at the same time alarmed by the progress made by Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Heavy Industries and LG Electronics in the solar sector.

Unlike early solar companies that were mostly tight in funding, the three South Korean conglomerates, with their strong financial position, have rapidly caught up in both technology and price.

According to industry sources, one of the South Korean giants claimed that it has achieved efficiency of 18.5% and 17.5% for mono-Si and poly-Si cells, respectively, and its solar modules are quoted at US$1.55 per watt. Though not quite as cheap as those produced by cell makers in China and Taiwan, its brand equity combined with added value from such an influential organization make the pricing very competitive, the sources said.

During Intersolar, one company reportedly went as far as offering special deals that allow clients to buy products now and pay five years later.

Thin-film, see-through modules, BIPV (built-in PV) technology and solar system components such as PV inverters are also the focuses of the South Korean companies, the sources said.

Though late to the solar party, the three South Korean companies are showing not just strong desire to enter the sector but also the capability to surpass their counterparts from China and Taiwan, the sources added.

The next step for Samsung, Hyundai and LG is most likely the more profitable solar system market, since the three companies have historically shown signs that they prefer vertical integration.

[R-BgO]

Posted on 17. Juni 2010

Does Grid Parity Matter?

One of the primary assumptions in the solar industry is: "if the cost of something gets low enough, everyone will automatically buy it." In my mind there is no guarantee that solar power will become mainstream when it costs approximately the same, or even less than conventional sources.

Here's why. Even with lower and lower cost per watt, solar power is missing two key elements of market expansion: product intangibles and a compelling reason to buy.

Consider what happened with the personal computer (PC). Not only did prices go down (and performance went up) but MANY other things helped make the PC a mainstream appliance. One of the biggest factors was the addition of IBM's backing and reputation to the desktop computing industry. Some readers may remember the so-called "IBM compatible PC" standard. IBM's blessing along with other "standards" such as the ISA/EISA bus combined to reduce the perceived risk of buying a PC. Adherence to industry standards is called a "product intangible."

Every single manufacturer of personal computers made and sold an IBM-compatible version of their PC. And by adding that intangible attribute to their product, they immediately became trustworthy in the eyes of the consumer.

But the most powerful factor in PC market development was a compelling application called the spreadsheet. Early spreadsheet software (Lotus 1-2-3 and Context MBA) running on the PC provided a quantum leap in capability over the existing ways of manipulating numbers…with adding machines, calculators, pens, pencils and sheets of paper.

The Green Banana Problem

Selling green bananas is different than selling yellow bananas. The promise that someday a green banana will turn yellow is a fairly weak value proposition.

This green banana problem also applies to solar. A common counterpoint in the debate about grid parity is that solar provides two very compelling "future" benefits: long-term price certainty (or less price volatility), and greater environmental health or sustainability. While these future benefits are certainly true and evident, they just aren't compelling enough to drive market expansion. People want yellow bananas (a.k.a. immediate satisfaction).

So in the solar industry, there are few if any risk-lowering product intangibles (who's the IBM of solar?) and the compelling "immediate" reason to buy hasn't been sufficiently articulated yet. Which means when solar reaches grid parity, it will provide something that people already get from a utility…electric power for the same price. There's no immediate advantage in capability above what a utility already offers. Plus, it isn't necessary to install a complex system on your roof when power comes from the grid.

Without risk-lowering standards or intangibles, and a compelling reason to buy, the solar industry must focus on vertical word-of-mouth referrals and references to overcome these missing elements of market expansion. Convincing mainstream buyers to adopt solar is certainly possible, but relying on grid parity is not the best technique.



Warren Schirtzinger advises solar companies on how to: differentiate their products, grow during an industry shakeout or consolidation, and thrive without government subsidies. He has authored articles as a "Renewable Energy Insider" on RenewableEnergyWorld.com and writes about marketing strategies on the solar strategies blog. Contact him via e-mail (warren["at"]solar-strategies.com) or follow him on Twitter @SolarStrategies.

[JoergP]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.705.706 von R-BgO am 18.06.10 16:24:43

Naja, der Vergleich mit den Computern ist doch wohl etwas an den Haaren herbei gezogen. Beim Computer ging es in der Anfangszeit um grosse Ausgaben ohne direkten Nutzen für jedermann. Beim Solarstrom ist der Nutzen angesichts dessen, dass man gewohnt ist, dass "der Strom aus der Steckdose" kommt und dass man die Kosten ziemlich oft diskutiert, wohl wesentlich schneller für wesentlich mehr Leute einsichtig.

Und beim PC war die "Standardisierung" eine notwendige Hilfe, weil es da viel mehr Variationsmöglichkeiten gab und eben nicht automatisch sichergestellt war, dass ein Programm auch auf "jedem" PC läuft... und es gab ja trotz allem genug kurzlebige Standards, u.a. für Grafikkarten, Bussysteme und ähnliches.

Bei der PV-Anwendung sind die Hersteller ja gar nicht erst in Versuchung gekommen, zu versuchen, z.B. 45 Hz- oder 55 Hz-Anlagen oder solche, die mit 190 V laufen würden, als Marktstandard durchzusetzen.

Für den endgültigen Durchbruch der PCs dürften wohl auch eher Textverarbeitung (Word), Internet und Spiele entscheidend gewesen sein als ausgerechnet Tabellenkalkulationen.

Wie dem auch sei: Grid-Parity ist für die PV ganz sicher ein wichtiger Faktor. Dann bedrohen auch keine Markteinbrüche durch angekündigte Förderkürzungen oder rückwirkende Gesetzesänderungen (wie gerade in Spanien) mehr die Anbieter.

[R-BgO]

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-solar-indust…

[R-BgO]

Breaking News: Vermittlungsausschuss einigt sich auf Kompromiss bei PV-Förderung. Bundesnetzagentur meldet neue Zubauzahlen für das erste Quartal 2010.
Nach wochenlangen Diskussionen zwischen Bund und Ländern um die Photovoltaikförderung in Deutschland hat der Vermittlungsausschuss nun eine Einigung erzielt. Demnach sollen die Vergütungen in zwei Schritten gesenkt werden. Daneben veröffentlichte die Bundesnetzagentur in diesen Tagen den neuen Zubau für das erste Quartal 2010.

Bonn/ Berlin. Wie Montagabend bekannt wurde, hat sich der Vermittlungsausschuss von Bund und Ländern beim Streit um die Senkung der Photovoltaikförderung auf ein zwei Stufen Modell geeinigt. Die vorgesehene Höhe der Kürzung bleibt dabei bestehen. Es wird lediglich eine zeitliche Staffelung eingeführt. Dabei sollen die Förderungen rückwirkend zum 1. Juli wie folgt sinken:

» für Dachanlagen um 13 Prozent

» für Freiflächenanlagen um 12 Prozent

» für Konversionsflächen um 8 Prozent

Ab dem 1. Oktober sollen dann alle drei Tarife nochmals um 3 Prozentpunkte gesenkt werden. Bundestag und Bundesrat müssen dabei dem Kompromiss noch zustimmen, was diese Woche Freitag geschehen soll. Bei den Ackerflächen bleibt es bei dem bisherigen Vorhaben, dass die Förderung seit dem 1. Juli entfällt.


Bundesnetzagentur veröffentlicht Zubau von 714 MW für Q1 2010 in Deutschland
Nach Angaben der Bundesnetzagentur wurden im weltgrößten Absatzmarkt für Photovoltaikanlagen im ersten Quartal 2010 rund 714 MW installiert. Im Vergleich zum Vorjahr bedeutet dies eine Steigerung um den Faktor 10. Bei der Interpretation der Daten ist dennoch eine gewisse Zurückhaltung geboten, da die Bedingungen kaum vergleichbar sind: In Q1 2009 befanden sich die Preise im freien Fall und die Aussicht auf weitere Preissenkungen verzögerte damals den Zubau. In 2010 hat sich das Bild komplett gedreht und die Diskussion um die Kürzung der Einspeisvergütung hat den Markt beschleunigt.

Eine weitere Schwierigkeit bei der Analyse der Daten: Melde- und Installationszeitpunkt stimmen nicht unbedingt überein. Vor allem im Januar gab es Nachmeldungen bereits installierter Anlagen. Dieser Unterschied zwischen Melde- und Installationszeitpunkt hat eine gewisse Brisanz. Die Berechnung der nächstjährigen Degression erfolgt nach aktuellem Stand anhand der im Juni, Juli, August und September gemeldeten Leistung. „Die unterjährige Marktentwicklung wird 2010 von externen Faktoren bestimmt und der Markt damit künstlich beschleunigt und wieder gebremst. Wir werden sehen, ob es gelingt, das Markvolumen 2010 ausgerechnet anhand der Monate zu berechnen, in denen sich diese externen Faktoren am stärksten niederschlagen“, so Markus A.W. Hoehner, Geschäftsführer des Marktforschungsinstituts EuPD Research.

„Es herrscht sicherlich ein sehr breiter Konsens darüber, dass 2010 für den deutschen Markt ein Rekordjahr sein wird“, so Hoehner weiter. Die Analysten des Bonner Marktforschers gehen davon aus, dass die installierte Menge in Q2 2010 über 2,5 GW liegen wird. Für das Gesamtjahr rechnen die Bonner mit rund 5,5 GW.


Zubau zum größten Teil von kleineren und mittleren Anlagen getragen
Mit Blick auf die Marktsegmente hat sich – wie zu erwarten – wenig verändert. Das Klein- und Mittelanlagensegment ist das mit Abstand stärkste. 55 Prozent der installierten Leistung bzw. 91 Prozent der installierten Anlagen entfallen auf die Größenklasse unter 50 kW. Die durchschnittliche Anlagengröße liegt im ersten Quartal 2010 bei 23,2 kW im Vergleich zu 23,8 kW im Vorjahr. „In Q2 2010 werden wir eine temporäre Verschiebung in Richtung Großanlagen erleben“, sagt Markus A.W. Hoehner. Die anstehende Einstellung der Förderung für Ackerflächen ist hier ausschlaggebend. Auch mit Blick auf den regionalen Zubau hat sich im Blick auf das Vorjahr wenig geändert. Bayern bleibt der stärkste regionale Markt, in Schleswig Holstein wird die höchste Dynamik beobachtet.

Auch mit der Kürzung der Einspeisevergütung wird der Markt nicht zusammenbrechen. „Im Augenblick nimmt sich der ein- oder andere Installateur nach einem 9-monatigem Dauereinsatz ein kurze Auszeit. Allerdings wird die Nachfrage spätestens im August wieder anziehen. Im zweiten Halbjahr wird der Markt dann verstärkt von Kleinanlagen getragen“, zieht Hoehner ein Fazit für die weiteren Monate.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan, China solar wafer and cell makers to maintain or raise prices in 3Q10 in spite of FIT cut in Germany


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 13 July 2010]

Solar wafer and cell makers in China and Taiwan are not lowering quotes in the third quarter of 2010 and some even successfully raised prices despite a subsidy slash by Germany, according to industry sources.

The manufacturers reportedly are willing to go as far as allowing inventory to rise above normal levels in the third quarter if demand contracts since they believe orders will pick up significantly again in the fourth quarter with another round of FIT (feed-in-tariff) reductions looming in January of 2011.

The wafer and cell makers, however, foresee a decent third-quarter with demand from Italy, France, the Czech Republic, Japan and China picking up, the sources said, adding that the fluctuating euro, which has caused huge losses in currency exchange rates, is another reason the manufacturers are reluctant to reduce quotes.

Taiwan's solar cell makers such as Motech Industries, Gintech Energy and Neo Solar Power and wafer producers Sino-American Silicon Products (SAS) and Green Energy are currently all seeing orders in excess of capacity, according to sources from the companies.

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/second_quarter_solar_module_s…

[R-BgO]

Poly-Si suppliers pushing for 3-year contract agreements with solar wafer makers


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 15 July 2010]

International poly-Si suppliers are pushing solar wafer customers to sign 3-year supply contracts which require down payments of up to 10-20% of the total procurement value over the agreed period, according to industry sources. The average contract price for poly-Si is reportedly at US$50/kg compared with US$55 currently in the spot market.

A shortage for poly-Si has persisted since the end of 2009 with spot price rising gradually to US$50-55/kg in early 2010.

Some Taiwan-based solar wafer and cell makers are reluctant to accept the new arrangement, pointing out that there are still many uncertainties with European countries cutting subsidies and other markets have yet to show definite signs of being able to pick up the slack.

But others are in favor of the new long-term contracts. Many of the companies in this camp inked similar agreements in 2008 amid another material shortage that arguably was even more severe. Terms of the contracts at the time were inflexible with "take or pay" clauses included and quotes were significantly above the current spot price.

Furthermore, due to the length of the agreements, which were often upwards to 8-10 years, many wafer makers are still shackled by the deals. Hence, new contracts that are friendlier and more cost-effective will actually relieve the burdens from the previously signed agreements.

[R-BgO]

kaum zu fassen:

JA Solar Ships 582MW Solar Cells in H1

Posted on Jul 19, 2010 | 17:07


JA Solar (Nasdaq:JASO) manufactured and shipped 582MW of polysilicon solar cells in the first half of 2010 generating sales revenue of RMB 6 billion, reported Solarbe.com July 19.

JA Solar's has built a total of 42 manufacturing lines to date and reached a daily output record of 100MW in May, according to the report.

JA Solar and Californian company Innovalight signed a strategic agreement in early July to co-develop solar cells with conversion efficiencies exceeding 20%.

[R-BgO]

Solar module market to reach US$35 billion in 2010, says Displaybank


Sylvia Yen, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Monday 19 July 2010]

The worldwide solar module market will total US$35 billion in 2010 and up to US$51 billion in 2014, according to Displaybank's Solar & Energy division.

Solar module prices are falling at a faster pace than government subsidies, which is a positive trend for the solar sector to maintain demand in solar energy system installations. In 2009, the government in Germany lowered its FIT (feed-in-tariff) by 10% compared to a 39% drop in module prices. In 2010, the FIT will be trimmed by at least 10% and prices are expected to decrease another 24%, according to Displaybank.

[R-BgO]

Europe PV module suppliers maintain price cuts for 3Q10


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 20 July 2010]

First-tier Europe-based makers of PV solar modules have notified customers that third-quarter quotes will be reduced by 10% as originally planned in mid-second quarter, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Solar module quotes will fall 0.15-0.20 euros to around 1.73-1.78 euros to stay in line with Germany's recent FIT (feed-in-tariff) cut, said the sources.

Europe-based module companies are prepared to take a hit in gross margin to maintain demand as solar wafer and cell makers in Asia, which are still seeing orders in excess of capacity, are likely to maintain or even raise prices, the sources indicated.

Solar module makers in Europe, particularly in Germany, in the past were able to quote higher prices compared with their counterparts in Asia due to comprehensive government subsidies, strong home markets and brand recognition. With Germany's FIT to be cut again in the fourth quarter, which will further impact the solar market, Europe's module players now have to learn to compete in price for business outside of Europe, the sources said.

[R-BgO]

jetz' also doch noch; mal schauen, ob's dabei bleibt:


China solar module makers lower 3Q10 quotes by 3-5%

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 21 July 2010]

Some China-based solar module makers have lowered quotes for the third quarter by 3-5% to about US$1.85-2/W, industry sources revealed, noting that the larger and more vertically integrated players, however, have yet to follow suit due to full capacity utilization, and their quotes will remain level in the third quarter.

With their European counterparts recently lowering third-quarter quotes, some Chinese module makers have reportedly reduced quotes as well to protect their price advantage. Though solar wafer and cell prices are buoyed by tight supply, the stabilizing euro has given the module makers some flexibility in pricing with substantial losses from currency exchange less likely, according to the sources.

The 3-5% slash is considered quite modest compared with Germany's FIT (feed-in-tariff) cut and previous module price reduction.

Another reason for the price decrease is the fixed-price contracts offered by the Chinese module makers. Whether it is shipments for the current or future quarters, the price is fixed at lower than the current spot price and is non-renegotiable in the future, the sources said.

With so much uncertainty still surrounding subsidization and demand in Germany and other major solar markets, the Chinese companies are using such contracts to secure orders and possibly better quotes down the line when module prices are pressured to fall further. Moreover, the volume commitments also give the module makers more leverage during component procurement.

[R-BgO]

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/_a/gartner_concerned_about_confl…

[R-BgO]

Erscheinungsdatum
27.07.2010

Die Bundesnetzagentur erwartet für das erste Halbjahr 2010 einen Zubau an Photovoltaik(PV)-Anlagen von über drei Gigawatt an installierter Gesamtleistung. In diesem Zeitraum sind ca. 135.000 Datenmeldungen bei der Bundesnetzagentur eingegangen, davon allein weit über 50.000 im Monat Juni.

"Wir verzeichnen in den letzten Wochen eine Flut an Datenmeldungen. Viele Anlagenbetreiber wollten sich noch die höheren Vergütungssätze sichern. Die Vergütungssätze des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes für Anlagen, die ab dem 1. Juli 2010 in Betrieb gehen, sind in einem erheblichen Umfang abgesenkt worden. Bereits aus der vorläufigen Auswertung der Monate Januar bis Mai 2010 ergibt sich ein Zubau von rund 1,7 Gigawatt. Ausgehend von den uns vorliegenden Datenmeldungen zeichnet sich ab, dass allein im Juni ein Zuwachs an installierter Leistung erfolgt ist, der annähernd der Gesamtsumme der ersten fünf Monate des Jahres entsprechen könnte", sagte Matthias Kurth.

Ende 2009 lag die installierte Leistung von PV-Anlagen in Deutschland bei insgesamt 9,8 Gigawatt. Der Zuwachs an installierter Leistung betrug im Jahr 2009 rund 3,8 Gigawatt. Insgesamt gingen im vergangenen Jahr ca. 160.000 Datenmeldungen bei der Bundesnetzagentur ein.

Seit dem 1. Januar 2009 sind Anlagenbetreiber verpflichtet, der Bundesnetzagentur Standort und Leistung von neu in Betrieb gehenden
PV-Anlagen zu melden. Auf der Basis der Zahlen der Bundesnetzagentur werden, entsprechend der Vorgaben des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes (EEG), die Degressions- und Vergütungssätze für das Folgejahr berechnet. Das geänderte EEG enthält mehrere Schwellenwerte für eine höhere bzw. geringere Degression.

"Wir werden bis zum 31. Oktober 2010 die Degressions- und Vergütungssätze für das Jahr 2011 veröffentlichen. Wir rechnen mit einer höheren Degression, was zu einer weiteren Absenkung der Vergütungssätze im Jahr 2011 führen wird", betonte Kurth.

Nähere Informationen zu den PV-Anlagenzahlen sind auf den Internetseiten der Bundesnetzagentur veröffentlicht.

[R-BgO]

Eine Meinung dazu, warum wir trotz "overcapacity" einen "Modulmangel" haben: "bankability"...

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/2011-the-return-…

[R-BgO]

Interessant; Beginn der Konsolidierung?:

SEOUL, Aug 3 (Reuters) - South Korea's Hanwha Chemical said on Tuesday it would acquire a 49.99 percent stake in Chinese photovoltaic (PV) cell maker Solarfun Power Holdings Co for 434 billion won ($370 million) in cash.

Hanwha declined to reveal the purchase price per share and said the deal was aimed at expanding into a new business and securing production capacity in the fast-growing Chinese market.

Solarfun is the world's fourth-largest solar module producer with 900 megawatts annual capacity.

The deal marks the lastest attempt by Hanwha's parent, chemicals-to-construction conglomerate Hanwha Group, to raise its profile through acquisitions and public offerings.

South Korea's fourth-largest business group purchased two local units of U.S. insurer Prudential Financial earlier this year for $425 million and raised $1.6 billion by taking Korea Life, the country's No.2 life insurer, public in March.

Hanwha said the final deal was expected by end-October.

Shares in Hanwha Chemical closed up 3.7 percent at 21,250 won on Tuesday and shares of Solarfun closed at $10.25 on Monday.

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.917.779 von R-BgO am 03.08.10 10:54:34

grosse sache....damit haetten nur die wenigsten gerechnet!! sollte dem sektor ein bisschen phantasie verleihen!!

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.918.129 von dicki31785 am 03.08.10 11:41:55

und vielleicht kann Good Energies das Cash in Q-Cells stecken...

[dicki31785]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.918.238 von R-BgO am 03.08.10 11:54:37

ach ja die brenninkmeijers...haben ja da auch ihre finger im spiel....total vergessen...

was die an geld mit Q cells verbrannt haben...unglaublich...wuerden die mir die haelfte davon geben wuerde ich warscheinlich 400 jahre ueberleben

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.918.307 von dicki31785 am 03.08.10 12:01:29

na ja strenggenommen nicht verbrannt, da sie ja ursprünglich sehr niedrig reingegangen sind; aber sie hätten natürlich sehr viel mehr vom Tisch nehmen können...

[R-BgO]

Solar cell makers in China and Taiwan open to long-term wafer supply contracts


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 29 July 2010]

Solar call manufacturers based in China and Taiwan are strongly considering long-term supply agreements with solar wafer producers, and some cell players reportedly have already done so.

A current solar wafer shortage will likely persist due to insufficient manufacturing equipment, especially for growing silicon ingots, according to sources from Taiwan-based solar wafer companies. Hence, cell makers are now willing to make long-term commitments to ensure capacity utilization. Historically, wafer capacity expansion has lagged behind that of solar cells. In Taiwan, cell makers are projected to add at least 2GWp in capacity in 2010 compared with just more than 1GWp by wafer makers, the sources said.

The long-term contracts proposed by wafer makers are typically for three years, and prices are set at US$3.30 per six-inch wafer versus US$3.50-3.70 on the spot market, the sources said. The agreements also included indexes on price adjustments during the length of contract, with quotes dropping to US$2.70-2.80 on average in 2013. Wafer prices have already touched upon US$2.80 in 2009, albeit it was during the subprime debacle, but with continual advancements in solar technology and improvements in production costs, many cell makers believe the prices listed are quite bullish.

Solar wafer makers, however, pointed out the indexes are merely for reference, and future price adjustments will be made on a quarterly basis and reflect the marketplace for upstream materials and downstream demand.

A big reason that solar wafers are now pushing the three-year deals to their cell customers is due to the fact that they have previously also signed long-term and less flexible contracts with poly-Si suppliers.

Though poly-Si spot price have dropped from US$400/kg in 2008 to about US$55 currently, many solar wafer makers are still hampered by previously signed supply agreements forcing them to pay a hefty premium. In addition, wafer makers have aggressively ramped up capacity largely on requests from their clients, and therefore, it is only fair that they should receive order commitments from the same clients, the sources added.

[R-BgO]

Taiwan-based solar cell makers to see full capacity utilization for rest of 2010


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 3 August 2010]

Solar cell makers in Taiwan including Motech Industries, Gintech Energy, Neo Solar Power, Solartech Energy and E-Ton Solar Tech are presently seeing orders in excess of capacity for the rest of 2010, according to industry sources.

Orders from Italy, France, the Czech Republic, Spain and Japan are strong, and have been able to replace the demand drop from Germany, the source said.

Gintech is optimistic about the second half of 2010 but warns that capacity expansion needs to be conducted in accordance with market demand to prevent over supply in the future.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.918.557 von R-BgO am 03.08.10 12:29:35

@Italien:

lt. GSE 37MW Zubau vom 23.7.-3.8.

=> hochgerechnet 1,3 GW/a

[R-BgO]

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-china-will-s…

[dicki31785]

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2010/08/is…" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2010/08/is…

[R-BgO]

Axiom Capital Research: 2011 Solar Module Demand Doesn’t Look Promising
Monica Gerson


Posted on 08/16/10 at 10:31am by Monica Gerson

Axiom Capital Research says, “Due to strong demand, born out of speculative investment in the German solar market in 2H09 and 1H10, our analysis suggests nameplate capacity for solar cells in China will expand to 21.9GW in 2010, from 9.5GW in 2009. We have identified, and thus added, 79 new Chinese solar cell/module vendors to our bottom-up supply model (36 of which had exhibition booths at the Intersolar Munich conference, and 14 of which informed us in face-to-face meetings they were sold-out for 2010).”

“Germany, which will account for nearly 60% of aggregated solar module demand in 2010, will see its FiT fall by roughly 38% from Jan. 2010-to-Jan. 2011. Yet, based on our checks, Chinese solar module prices will remain virtually unchanged from C4Q09-to C3Q10. Thus, given: (1.) the marginal production cost to make a Chinese solar module today is $1.05/watt, expected to trend lower to roughly $0.90/watt exiting C1Q11, (2.) we have confirmed that Tier 1 German installation/integration companies are currently qualifying in new, unforeseen, Chinese solar cell/module vendors, who are offering forward pricing below the “Tier 1” Chinese module vendors (i.e., TSL, STP, YGE, SOLF, CSIQ, etc.), (3.) Chinese solar module vendor margins, on average, are nearly 2x to-3x those of their customers (i.e., the system integration/installation companies), and (4.) before June 2006, TSL, one of the most “bankable” solar module companies today, was a small aluminum siding company in China with a book value of $157K (underpinning the commoditized nature of the solar cell business), we believe a 1H09 like price war is just on the horizon (due to increased competition),” the analysts add.

Axiom Capital Research mentions, “We do not believe emerging growth countries such as France, China, Japan, India, U.S., and Canada will be sufficient to fill the void left by a 39% y/y fall in demand in Germany, which should account for well over 50% of solar consumption in 2010. We are forecasting a below-consensus demand debasement of 25.2% in 2011 to reflect less favorable FiT policies in a number of key solar regions.”

[R-BgO]

:


Spot prices for solar cells go up to US$1.43-1.45/watt, say Taiwan makers

Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 17 August 2010]

In the international spot market, quotes for crystalline silicon solar cells have increased from US$1.35-1.4/watt in July 2010 to US$1.43-1.45/watt currently due to growing demand and increases in prices of solar-grade crystalline silicon wafers, with already a few small-volume transactions struck at US$1.45/watt, according to industry sources in Taiwan.

With several first-tier solar cell makers looking to raise quotes, the sources believe there is a good chance spot prices could hover above US$1.45/watt since a severe shortage for solar cells will likely persist.

With the solar module and solar energy system players in Germany increasingly looking outside their home country for opportunities, and coupled with the rise of other solar markets, solar cell makers in Taiwan project orders to remain strong for the rest of the year.

[R-BgO]

und noch einer:


Inverter shipments hit 5GW in 2Q10, says IMS Research

Press release, August 17; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Tuesday 17 August 2010]

Solar inverter shipments reached 4.9GW in the second quarter of 2010, growing by 284%, according to IMS Research. More than half of these shipments were for installations in Germany, which grew by 388% in the quarter, driving total shipments up to more than 8GW for the first six months of 2010, three-fold on-year.

EMEA accounted for around 90% of inverter shipments in the second quarter, growing by more than 300% over the previous year; further, the Americas market doubled in size. All regions recorded impressive growth, generating around 1.5 billion euro (US$1.9 billion) in revenues for inverter suppliers. The inverter shipments of more than 8GW in the first half were similar to shipments for the whole of 2009.

According to PV Research Director Ash Sharma , "Records continue to be broken in the PV market and second-quarter 2010 was no different. 4.9GW of inverters shipped made it the largest quarter on record and 30% higher than the previous record of 3.7GW shipped in the fourth quarter of 2009". Sharma added "Shipments of 8GW in the first six months of the year appear to support IMS Research's prediction of close to 15GW of new PV installations in 2010; with the third and fourth quarters both expected to be strong for suppliers".

Whilst MW shipments grew 284% in the second quarter, revenues 'only' grew by 165% due to a 30% fall in inverter prices. Despite extraordinarily high demand amidst tight supply, inverter prices fell for the fifth consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2010. Much of this, however, can be attributed to a continuing shift towards larger inverters, which have an inherently lower price per Watt.

With the market being affected both by extremely high demand and also production issues, major changes in the market share of suppliers are expected in 2010. IMS Research estimated that market leader, SMA Solar Technology's market share fell by 5% in the second quarter, whilst Power-One was the industry's biggest share gainer, up by more than 6%.

[R-BgO]

das ist interessant; wenn schon jemand wie BlackRock da einsteigt....:

Wednesday August 18, 01:10 PM Reuters
Blackstone to invest $300 mln in Moser Baer Projects

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - U.S. private equity firm Blackstone Group has agreed to invest $300 million in Moser Baer (MOSERBAER.NS : 66.45 +4.05) Projects Pvt Ltd, an unlisted energy firm, Deepak Puri, founder of Moser Baer Projects, said.

Moser Baer Projects is owned by the founder of listed Moser Baer India.

[R-BgO]

Solar-Boom treibt KfW-Förderung in die Höhe

Von Stefan Schultz

Solardach in Chemnitz: Starker Anstieg der Förderkredite

Der deutsche Solar-Boom lässt nicht nur den Strompreis steigen, sondern auch die staatliche Förderung: Allein im ersten Halbjahr 2010 wurden Kredite in Höhe von gut fünf Milliarden Euro zugesagt - mehr als im gesamten Vorjahr.

Hamburg - Der deutsche Solar-Boom hat massive Auswirkungen auf die Programme der staatlichen Förderbank KfW. Wie die KfW auf eine Anfrage der Berliner Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Technik (HTW) mitteilte, wurden im ersten Halbjahr 2010 allein für Photovoltaikanlagen Kredite in Höhe von rund fünf Milliarden Euro zugesagt. Das ist mehr als im kompletten Vorjahr. 2009 summierten sich die Kreditzusagen auf 4,4 Milliarden Euro.

Die Förderung von Photovoltaikanlagen ist mit weitem Abstand der größte Posten in den KfW-Programmen für erneuerbare Energien, die noch viele andere Verwendungszwecke umfassen - unter anderem Biogas, Windenergie, Geothermie, Wärmespeicher und energieeffiziente Gebäude. Insgesamt wurden in den KfW-Programmen für erneuerbare Energien im ersten Halbjahr 2010 Kredite in Höhe von 5,6 Milliarden Euro bewilligt. Im ganzen Jahr 2009 waren es 5,5 Milliarden.

Der deutsche Solar-Boom erreicht 2010 ein neues Rekordjahr. Im Eiltempo bauen die Deutschen neue Sonnenstromanlagen auf Dächer und Freiflächen. Wie hoch der Zubau in diesem Jahr ausfällt, lässt sich schwer schätzen. Die Bundesnetzagentur vermutet, dass im ersten Halbjahr Anlagen mit mehr als drei Gigawatt Leistung ans Netz gegangen sind.

Währenddessen gab es eine hitzige politische Debatte darüber, dass die Solarenergie in Deutschland immens überfördert wird, während andere Technologien wie Wärmedämmung oder Smart Grids, die für die deutsche Ökowende viel wichtiger sind, vergleichsweise wenig Unterstützung bekommen.

Die steigenden KfW-Kredite wurden bislang kaum thematisiert - Aufregung gab es hauptsächlich über die steigenden Stromkosten. Denn Unternehmen und Bürger fördern den Solar-Boom jährlich mit vielen Milliarden Euro, über Aufschläge auf ihre Stromrechnung (siehe Kasten links). Die Debatte resultierte letztlich in einer Kürzung der Vergütung, die Solaranlagenbetreiber erhalten, wenn sie Sonnenstrom in die Netze einspeisen. Die Vergütung wird in zwei Schritten gekappt - zum 1. Juli und zum 1. Oktober 2010 (siehe Kasten links).

Jetzt kritisiert Wolfgang Hummel von der HTW, dass die Solarbranche durch die zinsgünstigen KfW-Darlehen zusätzlich überfördert wird. "Die Förderung reicht von Ansiedlungszuschüssen über Investitionszulagen bis hin zur Forschungsförderung", sagt er. "Wir brauchen dringend eine nüchtere Bilanzierung der Kosten der Solarförderung in Deutschland."

[R-BgO]

jetzt also doch?:

Germany-based solar module makers lower quotes by 3-5%


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 18 August 2010]

Some solar module makers in Germany have again lowered quotes as demand from the country has cooled significantly in the third quarter since the reduction of feed-in-tariffs (FIT), according to industry sources. In June, the German module companies cut prices by about 10% to 1.73-1.78 euro/W (US$2.22-2.28) and some have recently trimmed their quotes further by 3-5% to 1.65 euros, the sources said.

The FIT cut, as expected, have pushed down the internal rate of return (IRR) for solar energy systems in Germany. Consumers and businesses, which previously were interested in installing systems, are now waiting on the sideline for installation cost to come down and investment return to improve.

However, with a lethargic German market, which accounts for more than a 50% share of the global system installation, module makes in other countries are now finding it much easier to secure solar cell shipments, which was not the case in the first half of 2010 when solar cell makers made supplying German customers their top priority.

Strong demands for solar modules from non-German markets in both Europe and Asia have served to buoy component and material prices thus far, making it difficult for German module makers and system installers to lower price.

[R-BgO]

Solar slashing: France’s solar feed-in tariff to be cut by up to 12%
24 August 2010 | By Emma Hughes | Editor's Blog


Local press reports in France have pointed towards feed-in tariff cuts for solar power installations. The French government is expected to follow the trend in solar slashing to keep its policy in line with the massive price drops apparent across the industry.

The government has supposedly alerted the Commission de Régulation de l'Énergie (CRE) of its intention to lower the solar FiT with effect from 1 September 2010. The report issued outlines that France remains ahead of its objectives set out in its environmental manifesto, La Grenelle Environnement and thus, the cuts should not affect the country's renewable energy goals.

The proposed cuts are to be around 12% and will be aimed at large-scale ground and roof mounted systems. This type of project is currently offered between €0.314 and €0.377, depending on the average solar irradiation of its specific location. Individual residential installations will not be affected by the changes.

The report says: "The cost of the PV sector has become very attractive, with lower module costs thanks to the development of production capacity in Asia, and a collapse in prices linked to the Spanish crisis."

High electricity prices caused by the FiT are also key factors in the decision to cut, according to the report. The cost of this is initially covered by the energy provider, but is ultimately borne by consumers as it is passed down through EDF.

This will not be the first time the country has made revisions to its feed-in tariff. Back in September 2009 the country's government replaced its three-year old solar FiT with a far more generous system, which spurred a torrent of project applications. The government now admits that this change was made based on "outdated cost assumptions" which have put the country in a situation of overly enthusiastic project applications.

The government claims that in the two months following the increase in FiT payments it received over 2GW of project applications. There are now over 60,000 applications awaiting approval.

Following this, the government took a hard look at the figures and realized that if the tariff was not cut, and soon, then the average customer could be facing a 10% hike in electricity prices. This then of course prompted the change.

What the country is likely to face now, is yet another flurry of project applications which aim to benefit from the higher FiT rate before the cuts take effect. This could put the energy providers in a worse position than they are now, yet this should be resolved as we go into 2011.

France is the latest in a long line of European countries to cut their subsidies for solar power, following Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic, who have all made amendments to their policies using the same reasoning.

[R-BgO]

!!!:

Germany rumored to be considering subsidy cap for solar system installation in 2011


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 19 August 2010]

The government in Germany is reportedly considering a cap on subsidy for solar system installation in 2011, according to industry sources.

The subsidy cap could be a complementary to the feed-in-tariff (FIT) reduction policy to prevent Germany's solar installation from growing at a pace that some industry pundits might argue could lead to an overheating market.

According to the rumored proposal, when total system installation reaches a capped amount in 2011, the government would halt its FIT subsidization for the rest of the year, the sources said.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.038.412 von R-BgO am 24.08.10 19:52:50

China solar module makers cut quotes by 7%


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Friday 20 August 2010]

Some China-based PV solar module makers have reduced their quotes by 7% from 1.35-1.45 euro/W (US$1.73-1.86) in the second quarter to 1.25-1.4 euro/W, according to industry sources.

A weak euro forced China-based manufacturers to keep quotes mostly steady in the second quarter and early third quarter despite the feed-in-tariff (FIT) rate slash in Germany since many companies were hampered by losses from currency exchange rates. As the euro has gradually strengthened in August, module makers now have more flexibility in pricing.

[R-BgO]

Wo geht das Zeug hin?:

China-based poly-Si suppliers reportedly purchasing from spot market


Nuying Huang, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 25 August 2010]

China-based polycrystalline silicon (poly-Si) suppliers, especially those with downstream operations in wafer, cell and module production, are procuring poly-Si from the spot market to satisfy client demand, which has served to prop up spot prices, according to industry sources.

Several poly-Si producers are even considering signing agreements with major poly-Si suppliers overseas to ensure sufficient materials for their own downstream operations and outside clients, the sources said, adding that the top-five poly-Si suppliers in China are seeing orders in excess of supplies by more than 30% at the moment.

Some poly-Si spot transactions in China were struck at close to US$70/kg versus an average of US$55-60/kg overseas, the sources indicated.