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[ThaiGuru]

Der Goldpreis scheint sich heute wieder etwas zu erholen!

[Wavetrader]

Noch mal in Euro... GD100 weiterhin markant.

[silverpwd]

Ja, Thailand ist billig und fundamental untermauert, sehe ich auch so, im Gegensatz zur USA sowieso, was sie bei einer Korrektur der Leitindizes relative Stärke zeigen lassen wird.

http://www.sharelynx.net/Charts/THAILANDlog.gif

Bis zur Bubble ist noch Platz.
Unter 1000 werde ich nicht verkaufen, aber das dauert noch

[ThaiGuru]

July 16 - Gold $342.90 up $1.10 - Silver $4.64 unchanged

The Bond Debacle

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"--- Thy princes have become companion of thieves.’ They hang thieves who have stolen a gulden or a half gulden, but trade with those who rob the whole world ---"
Martin Luther

Gold held its 200-day moving average yesterday, cleaned out some stops below that average this morning, and then turned up for the rest of the session.

Gold’s tested bullish megaphone formation remains intact:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

There was modest spec liquidation in gold and silver on the sell-off. Gold dropped 2861 contracts to 186,983. Silver fell 2153 contracts to 87,872.

Yesterday silver was trashed along with gold. We note once again that is often the case when gold is blasted. Conversely, silver is rarely allowed to soar when gold moves sharply higher. It’s sickening.

Something to keep an eye on:

Bill,

Dont know if you saw this on FNM..1.9 Billion loss on DERIVATIVES. Their loss on derivatives was bigger than their profit...an unexpected single day rise in bond rates of 0.25% must not be a great tonic for this toxic portfolio!

Cheers
Adrian

Fannie Mae Net Falls 25 Percent

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030715/financial_fanniemae_12.html

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News), the largest U.S. mortgage financier, said on Tuesday its quarterly earnings fell 25 percent because derivatives it uses to hedge against interest rate swings lost $1.9 billion in market value…

-END-

GATA’s contention for years has been that one of the main reasons the gold price was rigged was to influence interest rates lower than they normally would be if gold was freely traded. Remember what former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote in 1988 in his paper, Gibson’s Paradox and The Gold Standard:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"gold prices in a free market should move inversely to real interest rates."

By manipulating the gold price and keeping it artificially low, the US government was able to keep interest rates lower and more stable than they should have been. In addition, fortunes were made by the various banks in on the gold/interest rate rig. It is GATA’s contention the gold rigging operations are directly linked to the astronomical build-up of interest rate derivatives at JP Morgan Chase. They are over $20 trillion, which is double the GNP of the US.

Besides long-term rates rising sharply, volatility has gone through the roof as rates have risen so quickly. Both of those conditions are anathema to many financial institutions and will create havoc. That havoc will be reflected in the financial markets in the months to come. The bond vigilantes have thrown a monkey wrench into the Fed/Treasury’s efforts to keep long term interest rates down.

Bottom line for gold as financial market turmoil kicks in the US: EXTREMELY BULLLISH! Can’t see the price staying down at these levels for much longer.

Most gold market commentary is off the mark. An example:

CBS MarketWatch.com
July 15, 2003

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures fell more than $5 an ounce Tuesday, with gold stocks faring even worse as many traders took Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan`s upbeat economic comments on Capitol Hill as a signal to sell.

The central banker, testifying about the state of the U.S. economy, said little to indicate he expects a return of inflation anytime soon, undercutting gold`s attractiveness as an inflation hedge.

The decline in gold coincided almost exactly with the release of Greenspan`s prepared testimony before the House Financial Services Committee…-END-

At least the reporter had the orchestrated selling of gold to begin Greenspan’s speech right.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, July 16, 2003

Lots of physical needed

Sorry for break in comments, due to Reuters problems.

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $ 6.41, PM $6.53: with world gold at $342.10 and $342.80. High: ample for legal imports. The Indian news channels have a number of stories expressing satisfaction with the Monsoon and the local consumer spending boom: confidence seems high.

On Monday, the Istanbul weekly gold report spoke of heavy imports and surging activity last week: yesterday’s action guarantees the same thing this week.

TOCOM withstood an attempt to break gold down further, recovering from just below $341 in the late morning session. The attempt was serious: volume jumped 127% from Tuesday to the equivalent of 64,674 Comex lots. Ultimately world gold went out unchanged from NY at $341.10; the active contract fell 18 yen and open interest rose the equivalent of 535 Comex contracts. (NY yesterday traded 61,946 contracts; open interest fell 2,861 lots to 186,983 contracts: TOCOM open interest is the equivalent of 130,851 Comex lots.)

Viewed from the perspective of the South Carolina coast, there appears to have been yet another effort to break gold down by US-centric interests who do not follow the physical market closely. (It should be remembered that the Euro is not a good indicator for this, although many observers assume it is: the key buying markets lie outside the EU.) Based on the premiums, it will fail.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

At press time, a meager bond rally failed and they are trading lower again, even as the stock market sells off. Bonds were last at 111 28/32. The euro is slightly lower on the day.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $6Billion to the repo pool but with a $9 Billion expiration the total funding available for futures buying fell to $26.25 Billion.

We now see the mid-phase of the DOW`s topping activity as shown buy the DOW`s 30-day moving average.

I wish to again point out the clear reduction in Fed repos which has preceded the DOW`s topping condition. If one were only looking at the DOW as is the practice of Elliot wave and Prechter followers, you could not have known about the principal driving forces of the Federal Reserve`s open market activities.

A great deal of thought and planning has gone into masking the true intent of the Fed with respect to their open market tactics and strategies. That strategy is coming into very clear focus this week. They want the DOW to fall. Today the DOW will finish down perhaps even by 85-90. That trend will continue through to Labor Day or until the DOW gets back to the 7,500 level.
Mike

More:

Below is a decent review of today`s Greenspan comments.

It should be noted that the prime reason for rigging the gold market in the first instance has been since 1994 the control and "safe" lowering of interest rates in order to construct the several bubbles.

Now that interest rates have broken sharply upwards the Fed`s real threat has risen from the dead. Continued hammering of the gold price as interest rates soar should, at some point, be judged as superfluous.

The real damage will come from 8% and up 30-year rates with the Fed Funds at 1%...perhaps by Labor Day [Using today`s upslope]. The very essence of a derivatives neutron explosion.

Mike

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Will Winter Come Early This Year ?

(SeattleSun) Jul 15, 22:21

The biggest economic news for the day was not a report but a speech by Greenspan to Congress. The event was not without controversy and a major amount of grandstanding. Greenspan touted the numerous ways he felt the economy was poised to recover and the panel pointed out the numerous things he had done wrong and why the plan would fail. It was not your regular "praise meeting" full of "we have the utmost respect for you" comments.Panel members continually pounded him with verbal assaults so severe that other members publicly apologized for their behavior. Yes, it is an election year and Alan was forced to be the fall guy for the reelection crowd.

Alan said the FOMC was prepared to make substantial additional rate cuts to keep the economy on track and to use other weapons at their disposal for a long time to come. Unfortunately nobody believed him. With the Fed funds rate at 1.00% he admitted that any additional rate cuts could hurt interest rate sensitive businesses like money market funds as well as destroy retirement investments for millions of people who depend on CDs and short term interest bearing accounts for income. Alan did not win any friends there and the bond junkies laughed behind his back at what they considered an obvious bluff.

He also shot himself in the foot on the threat to use other weapons after he closed the speech with "However, given the now highly stimulative stance of monetary and fiscal policy and well-anchored inflation expectations, the Committee concluded that economic fundamentals are such that situations requiring special policy actions are most unlikely to arise." If the situation is most unlikely to arise then the bond market promptly ignored it and rushed to sell their bonds. The Ten year sold off a full two points and the 30-year a full three points. Yields on the 30-year nearly hit 5% and the ten year hit 3.968%. The interest sensitive stocks got killed with home builders selling off substantially along with utilities. It was a rout as bonds hit three-month lows and gave no indications that anything was going to change. Suddenly the Fed`s carefully crafted plan to keep interest rates low simply disintegrated before their eyes. With refinancing applications falling -22% last week and rates soaring this week there could be an even bigger drop off ahead. The refi consumer as the pillar of the recovering economy has died. It is now time for the business community to step up to the table or the winter may begin early.

-END-

Chuck checks in last night:

Bill:

I have been looking through the day`s material and opinions that are on the net, and believe that today will mark the beginning of something huge. The most important event will be the rise in interest rates, for that will immediately attack and threaten the economic structure that has built up so much cheap lending to less than credit worthy customers. I still think that it is possible for a financial panic somewhere along the way of the massive sell off just ahead.

The world markets keep gapping up on a daily occurrence, but recently the Japanese market has been reversing most of the time which is a very ominous gesture. Soon, I would expect the rest of the markets to turn down. We are so technically weak here, it won`t take much to pull the proverbial plug on this nonsense.

I was looking at the gold decline from last year at this very time to see if we are possibly repeating that action. Since this is a once in history event, anything can happen over the short-term. The most logical action should be for gold to break under $340 here and finish off the selling by the, most likely, same people who panicked last year. But if the rates keep rising without a let up, then who knows. I hope we can enjoy this and not worry about the very short term moves in gold. An explosion is going to come out of this mess with the shorts adding the fuel to the break out.

Today was Chairman Al`s last taste of glory. From here on he will be greatly villified. Talk to you tomorrow. Relax. Chuck

The next day:

Bill:

I just read Bob Hoye`s blurb on the bond market. His belief is that we have ended the current decline in bond prices which would coincide with the dollar`s strength, from what I can tell. That might also explain the panic in the golds. Notice that they never even had a bounce. I still am amazed by this.

Chuck

The gold shares were mostly lower across the board with follow-through selling appearing after yesterday`s bashing. It was expected.

I am out of here for a few days. Off to San Diego to visit with family. Since I will be at the beach, at amusement parks with kids, etc, the MIDAS commentary will be brief. Will put it out when I can.

MIDAS

Appendix

Hi Bill,

Don`t know if you are aware that the Bank of Canada lowered the prime lending rate Tuesday by 1/4 of a percent when the recent employment figures were improving. The Bank of Canada move surprised analysts.

Greenspan talks up the U.S. economy and the Bank of Canada forces down the Canadian dollar on the same day. Even the brain dead can see that the central banks who are immune from criminal charges work in concert upsetting natural market equilibriums. It is not worthwhile for businesses and individuals to study the markets anymore with the aim of trying to make intelligent economic decisions for they cannot read the minds of the immune manipulators.

Through this insanity of market manipulations by central banks and governments those in the know (large institutions and a few individuals) profit vastly from advanced information of the manipulations. The
profitability of the trading rooms of these institutions bears the proof. These institutions profit vastly in another way too. The unpredictability of the timing of the manipulations forces companies and individuals to purchase expensive insurance against these bizarre movements and so they buy derivatives and engage in fancy and costly swaps which enrich financial institutions. This is just one more way the unproductive in society extract wealth from the productive.

Bill, we are witnessing first hand the dwindling spiral of a decaying empire played out over and over and over again throughout history, and it is always the SAME people who are destroying these once glorious societies - the SUPPRESSIVE FEW. Bill, the suppressive few are psychotic in the truest sense of the word. They must be restrained by
the decent human impulses of society or else we will lose this current society too. The decent human impulses build society up. The suppressive few tear society down. These two forces are always in conflict and the destructive forces of the suppressive few have always won out to date. For the first time in man`s long history the suppressive few are being challenged on a grand scale. For the first
time in man`s long history there is a chance for a dwindling spiral of destruction to be broken. But we are VERY far along that path of destruction and it will require many heroes to restrain the suppressive few and terminate the decline, then build up a civilization here on
earth...for the first time.

Bill, you and Chris Powell and Reg Howe and a few others earned your decent human impulse stripes long ago. Unfortunately, we still ask for your continued leadership.

Many are with you.

Regards,
Ron Lutka

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[silverpwd]

Wäre ich Goldbulle, dann würde ich genau jetzt Gold kaufen.
Ich bin ja keiner , hab mit aber mal mit Spielgeld die 237408 geholt.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.phlx.com/news/XAU071503.pdf

MEMORANDUM

To: All Option Members, Member Organizations & ROPs
From: Regulatory Services Department
Subject: PHLX Gold & Silver SectorSM (XAU)SM

Date: July 15, 2003

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Inc. (PHLX) has determined to make the following changes to th
PHLX Gold & Silver SectorSM(XAU)SM, before the open of business on Monday, August 18, 2003

Additions Stock Symbols

Kinross Gold Corp. KGC
Durban Roodepoort Deep Ltd. DROOY

Deletions

Apex Silver Mines Limited SIL

As a result, the PHLX Gold & Silver SectorSM(XAU)SM will include the following 12 stocks effective Monday, August 18, 2003.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd AEM
Anglogold Ltd AU
Barrick Gold Corp. ABX
Durban Roodepoort Deep Ltd. DROOY
Freeport McMoran Copper Gold FCX
Gold Fields Ltd. GFI
Goldcorp, Inc. GG
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd HMY
Kinross Gold Corp. KGC
Meridian Gold, Inc MDG
Newmont Mining Corporation NEM
Placer Dome, Inc. PDG

The new (XAU)SM Divisor will be announced on a separate release prior to the open of business on Monday, August 18, 2003.

Questions concerning this release should be directed to the Regulatory Serices Department

1-800-THE-PHLX, choice 2, or, [phone].

[macvin]

@silverpwd

Keine schlechte Idee, aber vielleicht ein bisschen zu früh...

macvin

[silverpwd]

Mal schauen ob zu früh.
Dollar fällt, während Gold nicht mehr runter will.
Da ist ein Hauch von relative Stärke zu erkennen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 17, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $344.20 an ounce, up $1.30 an ounce from yesterday’s close. In a late development South African gold miners set a strike deadline for July 27th. What effect this may have had on today’s gold market is unclear. Gold gained late in the session as Funds sold off early in the session only to have buyers appear. Some short covering emerged as well to buoy the price of gold even as the U.S. dollar rose against major currencies while bond and global equities markets dipped lower. Early in the session gold slipped lower on weak but “better than expected” economic data. "The funds came right out of the box as major sellers in gold, but the trade bought it all," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "We created a double-bottom and then rallied about $4 from there. The trade buying was strong and excellent all day." Kaplan said he pinpointed next chart resistance in August gold at $346 an ounce, followed by $350 and $352, with technical support lurking down at $340.60.

"Gold is reacting to the dollar right now -- stronger dollar, weaker gold," said Ian MacDonald, manager of precious metals trading at Commerzbank in New York. "Gold is bouncing right on the 200-day moving average, so I think the market, particularly funds, will be watching very closely to see if we will break (below that) today," MacDonald said. By mid-session traders regained their composure and gold traded higher. ``When the euro turned higher on the day, the gold market rallied,`` said Frank McGhee, head gold trader at Alliance Financial LLC in Chicago. ``When you see stocks falling, that adds to the support,`` he said. ``We bounced off the euro rally today,`` said Robert Gottlieb, head of precious-metals trading in New York for HSBC Holdings Plc. "Gold prices still have plenty of reasons for long-term support," said Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider. The Federal Reserve`s "low interest rate (weak dollar) policy has been and still is the No. 1 driver for higher gold prices," he said. The White House forecasts a $455 billion deficit this year and a $475 billion deficit next year and that`s also supportive for gold, he said. As a result, spot gold has good support at $340 per ounce with potential to trade above $400 by the end of 2004, Hultman said.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $342.50 an ounce, down from $344.60 an ounce at the morning fixing. Some analysts have kept a broadly positive outlook for gold further out with the market expected to see further gains related to a resumption of dollar weakness. They still maintain that optimism over economic recovery for the second half of this year is overblown. "We`ve seen the euro trying to push its way back convincingly through $1.12 this morning – it seems to be suffering a lack of steam because of the European stock markets being a little bit lower and that`s stalling gold before the $345.00 level," said Rory McVeigh of Mitsubishi. "I think there are a few people out there that want to push gold into more positive ground. Following on from Greenspan`s comments yesterday -- he was a bit of a doom and gloom merchant -- if people are going to run with that sentiment, then gold could move up this afternoon," he added. "Continued support between $338.00 and the 200-day moving average at $340.90 while resistance should be found around $346.00 (100-day moving average)," wrote James Moore of the BullionDesk.com.

"Gold really has all the hallmarks of a market trying to figure out where to go from here. I think it`s range trading -- we`re at the lower end of that," said Peter Hillyard, head of European metals sales at ANZ bank. "Broadly speaking between $338.00 and $342.00 you are in a good support area, while between 348.00 and 350.00 you are in good resistance - there`s just not a lot going on," he added. "I think a lack of physical or fundamental buying has allowed the market to go into retreat," said analyst Rhona O`Connell at the World Gold Council. "We saw a heavily traded period earlier this week and I think that has left the market `licking its wounds` today," she said. However, she said prices remain well supported for the moment, "holding just a touch above technical support levels," citing the 200 day moving average currently standing at 341.07 usd/oz.

The U.S. dollar was mixed against major currencies weakening against the Yen in spite of Bank of Japan currency market intervention and slightly lower against the Euro. "People are starting to take notice that the BoJ is not going away. Some were caught by surprise two nights ago and they are reluctant to get caught again," said Lee Ferridge, head of global currency strategy at Rabobank in London. "We`ve had comments from the U.S. commander in Iraq that the war is still going on and so it`s a dollar unfriendly picture in the morning," said Peter Fontaine, currency strategist at KBC in Brussels.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold rose $2.40 in Hong Kong to $345.05. Traders said news that South Korea had exchanged machinegun fire with communist North Korea in the Demilitarised Zone -- the first such shooting since November 2001 -- failed to spark interest in safe-haven gold. Instead, the market focused on the dollar, which slipped from a two-month peak against the euro in the morning before recovering somewhat in range-bound trade. "I think maybe people still think there may be more long liquidation in the market," said William Leung, a dealer at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. "They still feel it`s a little bit bearish, but yesterday it seemed to hold up quite well below $342, so at this level it`s very quiet. They`re still waiting to see what will happen."


" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">SOUTH AFRICAN GOLD MINER STRIKE SET:

South African mineworkers threatened the first nationwide strike in 16 years on Thursday after wage talks with gold and coal companies hit deadlock. Three of the world`s major bullion firms would be hit by the planned stoppage by more than 160,000 workers on July 27 in the world`s biggest gold producing country. Goldfields, the world`s fourth biggest gold miner, Harmony and South Deep would be affected, but global number two AngloGold would be exempted because their pay offers were "significant", a statement from the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said. The employers` umbrella organisation, the Chamber of Mines, said talks would continue and there was hope a strike could be averted.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The head of U.S. forces in Iraq said on Wednesday troops faced a classic guerrilla war as a grenade attack killed a U.S. soldier and attackers fired a surface-to-air missile at a military plane. The latest U.S. combat death brought the total to 147, equaling the toll in the 1991 Gulf War, and increased pressure on President Bush, who is under political fire over the spiraling cost of the war and accusations that he misled Americans into the war.

Hong Kong plunged deeper into crisis on Thursday after the resignation of two top ministers added fuel to demands for democratic change and put further pressure on leader Tung Chee-hwa. Markets were on edge after the resignations of deeply unpopular Security Secretary Regina Ip and Financial Secretary Antony Leung at a time of growing uncertainty over the government`s ability to revive the city`s ailing economy. Tung gave little explanation for the departures on Wednesday and did not name their successors. He flies to Beijing on Saturday where he is expected to report to his political masters on the city`s biggest political crisis in years, offer names of possible new cabinet members and outline plans on running the city despite massive protests.

Liberia`s capital Monrovia braced for the threat of a third rebel attack in two months on Thursday as calls mounted for the rapid deployment of peacekeepers to stave off more bloodshed. Rebels and government soldiers traded gunfire north of Monrovia Wednesday, eroding a shaky truce and underscoring the risk of more of the kinds of clashes in which hundreds were killed in the coastal city last month.

South Korea exchanged machinegun fire with communist North Korea on Thursday in the Demilitarized Zone, the divided peninsula`s heavily fortified frontier, the South`s Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The rare shooting -- the last was in November 2001 -- took place as the United States and China searched for a way to coax North Korea to enter talks on Pyongyang`s nuclear weapons aims. A U.S. official said the North may be ready to restart talks.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell a seasonally adjusted 29,000 last week, the government said on Thursday in a surprisingly upbeat report which nevertheless showed the U.S. jobs market was still soft. New claims for state unemployment insurance benefits for the July 12 week dropped to 412,000 from an upwardly revised 441,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said. Analysts were expecting 425,000 new claims. Initial claims have been unable to punch below the critical 400,000 mark for 22 weeks, the longest run in more than a decade. Some analysts were not impressed with the data and said that while the jobless figure was positive, the level has been above 400,000 every week since Feb. 7. Overall, firms are still in a job-shedding rather than hiring mode, said Commerzbank in a research note, adding that unemployment, if it remains unchecked, would act as a real drag on current and future growth.

The Commerce Department said housing starts leaped 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted 1.803 million annual rate in June as home buyers scurried to take advantage of extremely low mortgage interest rates. The pace was the strongest since January`s 1.828 million rate. The housing report surprised analysts by its strength. Permits for new home construction rose to a 1.817 million annual rate, the fastest since December 2002. Permits for single-family dwellings posted a record annual pace of 1.421 million. However, mortgage rates have begun creeping back up from their June lows, a trend that should eventually begin to put a damper on the market.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its index of factory business conditions rose to 8.3 in July from 4.0 in June, the second month of expansion and above economists` forecasts of a rise to 7.0. A reading above zero shows growth. New orders jumped to 10.4 from -0.5 and even employment showed marked improvement, climbing to plus 0.8 from -12.9. It was the first positive reading in 8 months and the highest since May 2002, suggesting a more positive reading on manufacturing jobs in the July payrolls report after two years of job losses in the sector.

Federal Reserve policymakers` forecasts for U.S. economic growth next year are way above the market consensus and the strongest since 1984, suggesting they are confident recent stimulus will light a fire under the moribund recovery. But economists caution the central bank has been over-optimistic in its forecasts throughout the entire downturn and pallid recovery, and as yet there are scant signs of the long-anticipated return to solid growth. The Fed`s central tendency forecast for 2004, compiled from estimates by the members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, put growth at 3.75 to 4.75 percent. "It looks to me like a stretch, really," said 4Cast chief economist Alan Ruskin, who thought the Fed would predict growth about 1.0 percent lower.


Comment:

The day after U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan testified before Congress, bond prices plunged resulting in rapidly rising interest rates and increased borrowing costs that also carried over into the stock markets in the last three trading sessions. The equities markets continued to sink today in spite of a mixed bag of economic data, some that should be considered as positive news, however, digging deeper into the data there are still reasons for investors to be cautious. First time unemployment claims fell lower but remain well above the recessionary 400,000 level. Many are quick to point out that the “government inspired” number is statistically massaged and heavily skewed this week by a seasonality adjustment filter designed to account for the usually summer plant closures in the auto industry for maintenance and retooling. That did not occur as expected and therefore the first time claims number is actually higher. Not to mention that the previous week’s unemployment data was revised upward as always the case. Permits for housing construction soared as expected due to rising interest rates coming off of the lowest rates in decades. This may be a short-term event as many home buyers are quick to lock in low rates and make purchases now on fears that they “might miss out”.

In a late developing story South African gold miners set a deadline of July 27th for a strike at most of the country’s gold mines over wages. This may have some impact in the price of gold but the story appears to have broke after the New York trading session. Gold traded higher today after Funds sold off position only to be met by traders and speculators who covered short positions while investors digested the latest round of mixed economic data. The price of gold fell lower early in the New York session but finished the day higher supported by Fund buying, short covering by some speculators, strong physical demand, mixed economic data, a generally weak U.S. dollar, weaker bond and equities markets. Strong physical buying emerged out of the Middle East and India over the last several days. As the U.S. dollar strengthened foreign buyers came out to restock on gold supply as the price of gold pulled back.

With the likelihood of higher gold prices as physical demand heats up toward the end of summer, some retailers and fabricators are making purchases now in preparation for Asian festival and western holiday demand. Then there are the persistent rumors of continued physical gold and silver purchases by “deep pocketed” investors and Asian central banks who may be quietly accumulating and diversifying their holdings. Few of the “deep pockets” are talking openly though not long ago billionaire George Soros mentioned that he was buying gold as it was evident to him that the U.S. administration has abandoned the “strong dollar policy”. Asian central banks are known to be grossly overweight in U.S. dollars. Exchanging some of those dollars to diversify reserves into other currencies and precious metals as in the past would be a reasonable assumption and a common sense strategy.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=a2tpad…

Australia & New Zealand

Australian, N.Z. Currencies Tumble as Investors Buy Swiss Franc.

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian and New Zealand dollars tumbled as investors sold the currencies to buy the Swiss franc, traders said. The Swiss franc had the biggest gain of 16 major currencies against the dollar in New York yesterday.

The Australian dollar bought 64.62 U.S. cents at 8.40 a.m. Sydney time, compared with 65.64 cents yesterday. The New Zealand dollar bought 57.26 cents versus 58.39 cents late yesterday.

Last Updated: July 17, 2003 18:45 EDT

[ThaiGuru]

Gold $344.20 up $1.30 - Silver $4.66 up 2 cents

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Fail To Break Gold

The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.
- Leo Nikolaevich Tolstoy, 1828 – 1910

Back from San Diego’s Balboa Park to the relative solitude of the markets after spending the day with 4 youngsters ages 4 to 7. What a workout!

Was out of the loop today, but was told Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs tried to break down gold early, but when it held they both turned buyers with a vengeance. A surging physical market and strong technical support around the 200-day moving average proved too much for these stalwart Gold Cartel members.

Support for gold in the low $340’s is proving to be very formidable. The cabal took gold down to a low of $340.20 before sounding retreat.

With a retreating stock market and a bond market that refuses to rally much, even in an oversold condition, The Gold Cartel seems desperate to trash gold in order to calm down market observers concerning there is real trouble brewing behind the scenes. It is hard for me to visualize them succeeding, not with the gold fundamentals a “10+.”

This would be a real blow to the sorrowful crooks holding down the gold price:

“Mineweb headlines that 160,000 miners will strike. Says it has the story to be posted soon.”

Could not agree more on this one:

Bill,

This note on George Ure`s Urban Survival page caught my eye.....

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The ESF manipulations are increasingly ineffective in gold -- large quantities were leased July 7th (and bumped up rates) and failed to break gold into the 330`s. It is easy to see ESF foot prints in the market -- they drive up lease rates and try to bust the spot price shortly thereafter with their borrowing. The frequency of "capping" is increasing and the duration of effect is shortening. This is approaching the end of the gold pool game.

Best, Ron
Regards
Keith Whitehouse

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Auf dem Kitco Leasing Chart, sieht man schön den oben im Beitrag beschriebenen Anstieg der Gold Leasing Raten am 7. July für 1, 2, und 3 Monate.



Wozu das Gold Cabal dieses "ausgeliehene" Gold ab dem 7. July 2003 benutzt haben dürfte, das überlasse ich ganz Eurer eigenen Konbinationsgabe!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Wenn man sich den Anstieg der Gold Leasing Rate, am 18. Juni 2003 im Kitco Chart ansieht, und mit dem Gold Preis "Verhalten" an diesem Tag vergleicht, sollte dem geneigten Leser eigentlich auch etwas bemerkenswertes auffallen.



Einen Tag vorher, am 17. Juni 2003 war der Gold Preis bis 365.- Dollar pro Unze gestiegen, und der Trend, auch Charttechnisch, zeigte wieder eine starke Tendenz weiter nach oben auszubrechen.



Der 26. Juni 2003, der Tag an dem die Lease Raten für Gold ebenfalls einen Spike anzeigen, lässt ebenfalls einiges erkennen, wenn man das Goldpreis "Verhalten" mit dem untenstehenden Gold Chart an diesem Tag vergleicht.



Ein Schelm, wer sich nichts böses dabei denkt!


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Sozzi]

@Thaiguru - A P P L A U S !

[mickym [VIP]]

Es ist wie immer, alles nur eine Frage des Zeithorizonts.

Gruss Mic

[Waschbr]

Schau an, der Goldpreis soll mal wieder gewaltig fallen!

Hoffentlich!! Mit Nachkäufen hab ich keinerlei Probleme! Und wenn der mal wieder die berühmten 42 Dollar sieht (Zu diesem Mindestpreis ist die Fed verpflichtet Gold wieder vom Markt zu nehmen), miete ich mir halt einen Stapler und fahr damit zur Bank!!!!


...........................................


Was wird aus dem Washingtoner Goldabkommen ? – Von Herbst 2004 an kann eine physische Verkaufswelle drohen
(18.07.2003)

Am Goldmarkt wird es langsam für jene interessant, die längerfristig disponieren müssen oder wollen. Es geht um die Frage, ob und, wenn ja, wie das im September 1999 geschlossene Washingtoner Goldabkommen verlängert wird, wenn es im September 2004 ausläuft. Die Ortsbezeichnung Washington führt in die Irre. Auf das Abkommen haben sich 15 europäische Zentralbanken mit Rückendeckung ihrer jeweiligen Länder verständigt. Dass es in Washington geschlossen und bekanntgegeben wurde, war eher ein Zufall.

Sinn dieses Abkommens war und ist, die Goldabgaben der verkaufswilligen europäischen Zentralbanken zu begrenzen und zu koordinieren, um den seinerzeit vom niedrigen Goldpreis hart bedrängten Produzentenländern Luft zu verschaffen.

Hinter den Kulissen wird schon seit längerem darüber diskutiert, wie das Abkommen verlängert werden könnte. Dabei spielt der Umstand eine bedeutende Rolle, dass vor einiger Zeit auch die Deutsche Bundesbank, die bisher praktisch nichts aus ihren Reserven abgab, Verkaufsabsichten geäußert hat.

Wegen der misslichen Haushaltslage und der Verletzungen der Maastricht-Kriterien suchen mehr und mehr Regierungen in Europa nach Möglichkeiten, ihre Kassen zu füllen. Nicht alle von ihnen können ohne weiteres auf die Goldreserven ihrer Notenbanken zurückgreifen. Dafür wären, wie vor allem in Deutschland, Gesetzesänderungen erforderlich.

Der Bundesbank geht es nach Aussagen ihres Präsidenten Welteke nur darum, einen Teil ihrer "toten" Goldreserven in Erträge abwerfende Investments umzuwandeln. Der Staat bekäme im Falle von Verkäufen nach dem gegenwärtigen Gesetzesstand nichts.

Es kann sehr gut sein, dass politische Interessen und Einwirkungen eine Verlängerung oder eine Neuauflage des Washingtoner Goldabkommens verhindern. Dann allerdings würden wohl Dämme brechen, weil jede Zentralbank wieder nach eigenem Gusto Gold verkaufen und/oder ausleihen könnte.

Zusammen mit den bis zum Herbst 2004 gewiss stark nachlassenden Käufen der Goldproduzenten, mit denen sie ihre Sicherungs- und Vorausverkäufe (Hedge Books) abbauen, könnte sich daraus eine fundamentale Konstellation ergeben, die den Goldpreis massiv unter Druck setzen würde.

Dies ist und bleibt aber nur ein, wenn auch gewichtiger Aspekt für den Goldmarkt. Daher sollte er bei allen mittel- bis längerfristigen Überlegungen nicht vergessen werden.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2003 Tauros GmbH - www.taurosweb.de

[ThaiGuru]

Einen überdurchschnittlichen Leasingrates Spike zeigt der Chart!

Wenn man die vorangegangenen Spikes, und das jeweils darauffolgende Goldpreis "Verhalten" als Kriterium verwendet, wird`s mir etwas flau in der Magengegend.

Entweder kommt das Gold Cabal an die benötigten "ausleih" Goldmengen nur sehr schwierig ran, oder sie haben soviel Gold ausgeliehen, um zu versuchen die Goldpreise nochmals unter die 330.- Dollar zu drücken.

Es könnte aber diesmal auch noch ein dritter, für uns Gold Bugs, sehr erfreulicher Grund sein, der die Gold Leasing (Miete) Rates heute regelrecht explodieren lässt.

Der drohende Generalstrike in Südafrika ab dem 27. July 2003!

Falls das Gold Cabal sich aus Sicherheitsgründen, wegen dem eventuell bevorstehenden Streik von 160000 Goldminen Arbeiter in Südafrika, sich mit physischem Gold eindecken muss, um ihre Lieferverpflichtungen im Falle eines Generalstreikes, und der damit sicherlich einhergehenden massiven Verknappung des physischen Goldes, zu überstehen.

Gold stieg ja wenigstens gerade auch wieder um 4.- Dollar pro Unze an.

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1058550841.php



The NASDAQ Echo Bubble

By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

[YoyoStock]

Was wird aus dem Washingtoner Goldabkommen ? – Von Herbst 2004 an kann eine physische Verkaufswelle drohen
(18.07.2003)

Am Goldmarkt wird es langsam für jene interessant, die längerfristig disponieren müssen oder wollen. Es geht um die Frage, ob und, wenn ja, wie das im September 1999 geschlossene Washingtoner Goldabkommen verlängert wird, wenn es im September 2004 ausläuft. Die Ortsbezeichnung Washington führt in die Irre. Auf das Abkommen haben sich 15 europäische Zentralbanken mit Rückendeckung ihrer jeweiligen Länder verständigt. Dass es in Washington geschlossen und bekanntgegeben wurde, war eher ein Zufall.

Sinn dieses Abkommens war und ist, die Goldabgaben der verkaufswilligen europäischen Zentralbanken zu begrenzen und zu koordinieren, um den seinerzeit vom niedrigen Goldpreis hart bedrängten Produzentenländern Luft zu verschaffen.

Hinter den Kulissen wird schon seit längerem darüber diskutiert, wie das Abkommen verlängert werden könnte. Dabei spielt der Umstand eine bedeutende Rolle, dass vor einiger Zeit auch die Deutsche Bundesbank, die bisher praktisch nichts aus ihren Reserven abgab, Verkaufsabsichten geäußert hat.

Wegen der misslichen Haushaltslage und der Verletzungen der Maastricht-Kriterien suchen mehr und mehr Regierungen in Europa nach Möglichkeiten, ihre Kassen zu füllen. Nicht alle von ihnen können ohne weiteres auf die Goldreserven ihrer Notenbanken zurückgreifen. Dafür wären, wie vor allem in Deutschland, Gesetzesänderungen erforderlich.

Der Bundesbank geht es nach Aussagen ihres Präsidenten Welteke nur darum, einen Teil ihrer "toten" Goldreserven in Erträge abwerfende Investments umzuwandeln. Der Staat bekäme im Falle von Verkäufen nach dem gegenwärtigen Gesetzesstand nichts.

Es kann sehr gut sein, dass politische Interessen und Einwirkungen eine Verlängerung oder eine Neuauflage des Washingtoner Goldabkommens verhindern. Dann allerdings würden wohl Dämme brechen, weil jede Zentralbank wieder nach eigenem Gusto Gold verkaufen und/oder ausleihen könnte.

Zusammen mit den bis zum Herbst 2004 gewiss stark nachlassenden Käufen der Goldproduzenten, mit denen sie ihre Sicherungs- und Vorausverkäufe (Hedge Books) abbauen, könnte sich daraus eine fundamentale Konstellation ergeben, die den Goldpreis massiv unter Druck setzen würde.

Dies ist und bleibt aber nur ein, wenn auch gewichtiger Aspekt für den Goldmarkt. Daher sollte er bei allen mittel- bis längerfristigen Überlegungen nicht vergessen werden.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber

[ThaiGuru]

Aus dem Kitco Board von heute

Gold.........
is up in.......

Euro`s
Yen
Pounds
Swiss Francs
Dollars
Rands
Canadian Dollars

All of that fiat Schitt above is dropping

That Must mean Gold is Now MONEY

[ThaiGuru]

Der Dollar macht wieder das, was er am besten kann!

Er fällt !!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 18, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $347.05 an ounce, up $2.85 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Fund buying and short covering came in at the close to boost gold higher ahead of the weekend as the U.S. dollar weakened slightly. Gold traded near unchanged Friday morning as dealers tracked choppy currency markets, market sources said. Gold mainly keyed off the U.S. dollar, which bounced up and down against the euro, without stronger recovery evidence from U.S. earnings and economic data, said one floor source. "August gold is flat. We`re teetering at key technical levels, and so long as the dollar stays firm, you probably stand a better than fair chance of testing that $341-$340 area," said AG Edwards commodities commentator James Quinn at the COMEX floor. "It`s a good day for the gold. It seems to be almost all euro-driven action today," said Tom Boustead, an analyst at Refco LLC in New York. "I think the ring was a bit short early on, but traders said a decent-sized order came in and helped pop it at the $345 level," he said. "It is a positive close because it is above the 100-day moving average" at $346.70, said Boustead. Pioneer Futures analyst Scott Meyers said most of the buying was by locals as summer conditions were thin. "It`s all dollar-driven, but it`s still stuck between $340 and $350."

Gold prices have settled into a trading range between $341 and $345 per ounce and "seem to be trading opposite of the U.S. dollar," said Robert Fuhrmann, an analyst at Myfuturesonline.com in Chicago. "We may be seeing some `investment` type buying of gold around the current price levels," he said. Still, "strength in the dollar, as well as a generally upbeat economic assessment by (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan is not making a very forceful case for traders to bid the price up yet," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $344.35 an ounce, up from $344.00 an ounce at the morning fixing. "Gold continues to trade unimaginatively between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and moves in between are still largely driven by the currencies," said analyst Rhona O`Connell at the World Gold Council. Analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com said: "Support around the 338-41 usd/oz level continues to prove solid for now and the swings in the equity market and currency markets are likely to encourage fresh investor interest in gold`s safe haven qualities. "Scaled up selling ahead of the 100-day moving average at 345.80 (usd/oz) will offer strong resistance for now but the continued bargain hunter and physical buying are likely to push the yellow metal back towards the 360 usd (level) over the coming weeks," he added. "Swings in the equity market and currency markets are likely to encourage fresh investor interest in gold`s safe haven qualities," said Moore.

Some felt that gold`s failure this week to decisively fall through a key support level -- the 200-day moving average at $341 an ounce -- could see the market try to test higher levels in day`s ahead. Others were less convinced. "Funds have been known to bulldoze through such barriers before and with great effect," Standard Bank London said in a daily report. John Reade, metals analyst with UBS Investment Bank, said in his daily comment that although he was looking for higher gold prices in the second half of the year based on UBS`s expectations for further weakening in the dollar, short term weakness could not be ruled out. "We still favour a test of the downside in the near term as we expect that the metal can come under further selling pressure should the dollar remain perky," he wrote.

Analysts said the market has not reacted to a national strike threat by South Africa`s National Union of Mineworkers. The threat provides "only limited support" to prices, according to Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby. Analyst John Reade of UBS Investment Bank said there could be some impact if the strike really takes place and lasts longer than one or two weeks. Only three gold miners, Gold Fields, Harmony Gold Mining and South Deep are affected, and the strike will begin July 27, according to the union.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold fell 80 cents in Hong Kong to $344.25. Gold traded in a narrow range supported by some short covering by Japanese investors ahead of a public holiday Monday. A day after an exchange of gunfire in the demilitarised zone between North and South Korea, traders said investors may also have been reminded of gold`s role as a safe haven in uncertain times, although most played down the dangers. "There`s been tension in Korea, so I think the Japanese don`t want to be too short over the weekend," said Greg Fan, a senior dealer at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong. "I think the North Koreans are just playing games. When they had that little fight yesterday, the market didn`t really react at all," he said.

The U.S. dollar gained ground by selling in yen against other currencies, including the euro and Swiss franc, as well as dollar demand in the run-up to commercial fixing. "I`ve heard that foreign players had placed huge buy orders in euro/yen yesterday and so the yen is keeping a bearish tone due to that," said Gen Kawabe, manager of the treasury department at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking. Another dealer said aggressive buying in the Swiss franc was seen as investors continued to unwind Swiss carry positions and shift out of high-yielding currencies. Traders remained wary of selling dollars on continued fears of BoJ currency intervention.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

The number of U.S. soldiers killed in combat in Iraq surpassed the toll for the 1991 Gulf War on Friday when a serviceman was killed in a blast in the restive town of Falluja. His death was the 148th in combat since the war was launched nearly four months ago. A U.S. military spokeswoman said the soldier`s Humvee drove over an explosive device in the town 50 km (32 miles) west of Baghdad. There were 147 American fatalities in the 1991 war. The soldier was the latest victim in what U.S. officials say is a "guerrilla-style" war waged by supporters of Saddam Hussein who was toppled on April 9 in the U.S.-led war.

The Defense Department is considering calling up thousands of additional National Guard and Reserve troops in the coming months for service in Iraq, U.S. defense officials said on Thursday. The Pentagon said a total of about 201,000 National Guard and Reserve troops already are on active duty. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the use of additional National Guard and Reserve troops is in the mix of options now being weighed as the Pentagon devises a plan to bring long-serving troops home from Iraq and replace them with fresh ones while maintaining adequate troops levels. Officials said elements of Army divisions in Texas and Hawaii, Marine Corps troops, and reservists are being considered for service in Iraq in the coming months.

The United States faces a rapidly closing window of opportunity to create law and order in Iraq or face a possible descent into chaos, experts sent by the Pentagon to assess postwar reconstruction efforts said on Thursday. The team of five independent policy experts issued a report urging the Bush administration to secure greater international involvement in the reconstruction process and calling the U.S. civil administration leading the efforts "badly handicapped" by a business-as-usual approach during an urgent situation. The report said "the next three months are crucial to turning around the security situation, which is volatile in key parts of the country," but added that the United States needs to be prepared "to stay the course in Iraq for several years."

The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Friday the biggest nuclear weapons threat at the moment was North Korea, though he said he was encouraged by China`s attempts to re-open talks with Pyongyang. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei also expressed concern over recent reports that North Korea had reprocessed all its 8,000 spent fuel rods to extract weapons-grade plutonium. "In my view, the situation in the DPRK (North Korea) is currently the most immediate and most serious threat to the nuclear non-proliferation regime," ElBaradei said in comments he made to a board of governors session on the IAEA`s budget. Also on Friday, U.N. inspectors found enriched uranium in environmental samples taken in Iran, which could mean Tehran has been enriching uranium without informing the U.N. nuclear watchdog. The diplomats said initial analysis showed enrichment levels possibly consistent with an attempt to make weapons-grade material and high enough to cause concern at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Eight Afghan government soldiers were killed on Friday in an attack by suspected members of the ousted Taliban regime in the southeastern province of Khost, a military official said. The soldiers were traveling in a four-wheel-drive vehicle near a market about 25 km (15 miles) east of Khost town when they came under attack. The soldiers were recruits to Afghanistan`s fledgling national army and served along the border with Pakistan. They had been shopping at the market.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private forecasting group, said its weekly leading index rose to 126.8 in the week ended of July 11, from a revised 124.9 the prior week. The index`s growth rate, an annualized rate for the four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, rose to 9.7 percent, its fastest growth rate since May 1987, from a revised 8.5 percent the previous week. An increase in money supply, including assets in mutual funds, and high levels of applications for mortgages to buy homes are the main forces behind the index`s increase, said Anirvan Banerji, director of research at ECRI in New York.

The pace of home mortgage refinancings, a crutch for the wobbly U.S. economy in recent years, likely will drop because of higher borrowing costs. Interest rates have trended higher in recent weeks on views the economy was improving. Remarks by Federal Reserve Chief Alan Greenspan on Tuesday predicting a hearty economic recovery briefly propelled 10-year Treasury note rates above 4 percent. The ensuing jump in rates has taken away the ability of many home owners to cut monthly mortgage payments and draw equity out of a home by refinancing. The Federal Reserve and the current and previous administrations have closely watched the rate of refinancings because this source of cash has been so important for the overall economy.

The University of Michigan`s preliminary consumer sentiment index, a widely followed measure of consumers` mood, rose to 90.3 in July from a final reading of 89.7 in June, market sources said. That was a touch higher than economists` forecasts for a reading of 90.0. The survey`s preliminary current conditions index, which tracks consumers` views about their present financial situation, jumped to 102.8 in July from 94.7 in June, market sources said. "All of the increase was due to a sharp rise in the current conditions index which probably occurred due to the implementation of the recent tax cut law," said Patrick Fearon, economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis, Missouri. "The Fed rate cut (in late June) probably was a help as well." A slip in the expectations index -- which measures attitudes about the 12 months ahead -- to 82.7 in July from 86.4 in June, may have been due to the rise in the June unemployment rate to 6.4 percent, reported on July 3. "Even people who are not laid off now could be getting concerned that they might be laid off down the road," Fearon said.


Comment:

Gold gained on some Fund buying and short-covering and at the close a fairly large buy order came into the market to send gold near the highs of the trading session. Though the name of the game is still the U.S. dollar as the key driver of the gold trade, investors appear to be looking toward the equities markets and economic data with more frequency. Over the last couple of days gold occasionally traded inline with the stronger U.S. dollar as the equities markets dipped on weak to mixed economic data. At some point investors will actually pay attention to economic data and the health of the economy as a driver for gold. Longer term the U.S. dollar will have to give way under the mounting pressure of soaring record setting current account, trade, and budget deficits. The combined soaring debt and weakness in the economy will make gold attractive for its “safe haven” qualities. Near term investors may want to keep an eye on developments in South Africa’s mining sector. The National Union of Mineworkers have set a strike deadline for July 27 that will effect operations at Gold Fields, Harmony Gold Mining and South Deep. Should the strike actually occur gold prices could find additional support in a market where physical metal demand outstrips actual physical metal supply.

Consumer spending is said to be two thirds of the economy and corporate expenditures have fallen off sharply in recent years. Even as consumers fret over rising unemployment and having suffered heavy losses in investments after the stock market mania imploded they kept spending by drawing equity out of their homes. The pace of home mortgage refinancings may fall off soon now that interest rates are rising. The bond market is coming under pressure on Wall Street sentiment that the economy is improving fueled by this week’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicting an economic recovery. Shortly afterward the10-year Treasury note rate rose above 4 percent. The rise in interest rates have taken away the ability of home owners to cut monthly mortgage payments and draw equity out of a home by refinancing. As interest rates continue to rise fewer consumers will have the ability to keep spending and float the economy by increasing their debt. This source of cash has been very important for the overall economy. Rising interest rates will also likely put an end to the rush to buy real estate and could lead to a collapse of the housing market and ultimately lowering the value of real estate. Those who have adjustable mortgage interest rates will be hard pressed to keep spending as they struggle to keep the family home.

Meanwhile the U.S. dollar decline stalled and continues to hold up against major currencies despite a wide spread between European and U.S. interest rates, soaring deficits (current account, trade, and budget), and massive infusions of cash courtesy of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar remains in a long-term decline though temporarily supported by currency market intervention (most notably under direction of Japanese monetary authorities at the Ministry of Finance).

The current “dollar strength” is unsustainable of course regardless of the recent U.S. administration’s public statements supporting the “strong dollar policy”. Billionaire hedge fund master George Soros recently explained that his interest in foreign currencies “and some gold” was due to the obvious fact that the “strong dollar policy” is unsupportable.

I agree. Should the Federal Reserve prove successful creating inflation in this “slow growth” economic environment the dollar must weaken and investors will do well to have hard assets such as precious metals in their investment portfolio.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

Die Engländer scheinen auch ihre grossen Probleme mit ihrem Altersvorsorge System zu haben!

Die Uhr tickt, nicht nur in den USA, und Deutschland!

Allen ein schönes Wochenende

wünscht

ThaiGuru



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml%3B$sessionid$HF3…

How big a pot of gold do you need?

(Filed: 19/07/2003)

With a pension crisis looming, you can avoid poverty in old age, but at a hefty price, says Ian Cowie

"How much is enough?" may sound like a question from a philosophy exam but the answer has practical applications for millions of people saving to fund retirement.



Members of money purchase company pensions have been able to see the impact on their funds of falling share prices and increased taxation for several years. Now members of final salary schemes have been warned the crisis is likely to affect them, too.

Aon Consulting, Britain`s biggest insurance broker, forecast this week:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Several million employees in final salary pension schemes may need to increase their contributions by a total of £1 billion a year."

One in five of the company schemes surveyed had already increased employee contributions from five per cent of salary to seven per cent, said Simon Martin of Aon, who added: "This is hard evidence that employees face a choice if they are to retire on an adequate pension; either they will need to work longer - or start paying more into their pensions now."



The good news is that Standard Life`s figures are not quite as daunting as they seem. For the sake of simplicity, the insurer assumes no other savings - but pensions are not the only way to save for retirement; indeed, property has been a better bet in recent years.

Another consideration is that the contributions expressed as a percentage of current earnings, calculated by Standard Life, do not include any employer`s contributions - and many firms still make substantial payments into occupational schemes.

That is important because the Inland Revenue maximum limits - which are lower than Standard Life`s recommendations in several instances - do not include employer`s contributions. "Net relevant earnings" for pension contribution purposes include all pay the typical employee receives - including overtime and benefits in kind, such as company cars and medical insurance - but exclude dividend income and redundancy pay.

Fortunately, there are some simple rules of thumb to guide you through the complexities. Adrian Boulding, of Legal & General, said: "Take the age at which you start saving for a pension, divide that by two, and the result is the percentage of your salary that you should save throughout your working life in a pension plan. This will produce a pension which, when added to your state pension entitlement, will replace about two thirds of your pre-retirement salary."



Similarly, if you wonder how much of your savings should be in shares - as opposed to bonds or deposits - you could do worse than be guided by Charles Kindleberger, the American economist who died earlier this month. He advised: "Subtract your age from 100 and that is the percentage you should have in equities."

William Sallitt, of Advisory & Brokerage Services, a London-based independent financial adviser, added: "The answer to the question: `how much should I save?` is as much as you can afford without making yourself miserable in the meantime.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Best of all, speak to someone in retirement and ask what they would have done, had they had their time again."

Pension forecasts specific to your age and when you hope to retire can be obtained online from the Financial Services Authority and the Association of British Insurers at www.pensioncalculator.org.uk

[Tr@dex]

Hi ,

wie seht ihr das in Posting #6475 beschriebene Szenario,
daß wenn das Washingtoner Abkommen nicht verlängert wird,
es zu massiven Verkäufen seitens der Zentralbanken kommt,
die den Goldpreis implodieren lasssen?
Wie wahrscheinlich ist es,daß das Abkommen nicht verlängert wird?

Gruss

[Basic]

Hat sich eigentlich schon mal jemand Gedanken gemacht, was Schulden eigentlich bedeuten?
- Zinsbelastung
- Rating
- Bankkrott

Ist das alles?

Auf Kredit konsumieren bedeutet ein in der Zukunft möglicher Konsum wird heute realisiert hab ich mal gelernt.

Für den Einzelnen sicher kein Problem, für kurze Zeit sicher auch nicht.

Aber wenn ganze Volkswirtschaften über Jahrzehnte hinweg auf Kredit konsumieren, haben sie quasi Ihre Zukunft verbraucht!

In der Zeit wo zunehmend auf Kredit konsumiert wurde wurde Wirtschaftswachstum erzeugt, das mit der realen Kaufkraft nicht im Einklang steht.

Eine in der Zukunft nötige Produktion wurde schon heute erledigt. Auch die zukünftige Arbeit!

In den ganzen letzten 30 Jahren hätte der Geburtenrückgang voll zugeschlagen. Die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen wurden aber durch den Kreditkonsum überdeckt.

Wie lange kann so was gehen?
Es ist eine Frage der Zinslast, wie weit sich der Einzelne verschulden kann und der Geduld der Gläubiger, so lange er die Sicherheit hat sein Geld zurück zu erhalten. Im Prinzip könnt alle ihre Schulden ewig behalten so lange die Zinsen gezahlt werden.

Dummer weise übernehmen die Erben in der Regel keine Schulden. Überall wird von einer Erbengeneration gesprochen, nur wer zahlt die Schuldenausfälle?

Wir werden es in der Zukunft also mit drei Problemen zu tun haben:
- Die junge Generation ist geschrumpft und wird in die Billigjobs gesteckt.
- Die alte Generation sitzt auf den Schulden und hat alles.
- Die Schulden mussen zurückgezahlt werden.

Wo da eine Inflation herkommen soll ist mir schleierhaft.

Die Gelddruckmaschiene führt nicht automatisch zur Inflation, solange nicht nachgefragt wird.

Angebot und Nachfrage regeln den Preis und das sieht nicht gut aus.

Erst wenn Kredietfinanzierte Unternehmen pleite gegangen sind und das Angebot wegbricht greift die Inflation und das kann noch etwas dauern.

Danach wird erst das Rentenproblem richtig interessant. Sicher in allen Volkswirtschaften.

Wie daran eine Steuererleichterung etwas ändern soll



Gruß Basic

[jeffery2]

#6480, was wird passieren? Erstmal grosse Verunsicherung und eine Erwartung, dass die Märkte das Gold abstrafen. Da wäre dann gut zu wissen ,wieviel phsisches Gold zum Verkauf wirklich noch da ist. Dann könnte vielleicht auch mal der eine oder andere Pfiffikus nachdenken, dass der 2.grösste Goldhalter die BuBa, mal gerade so viel hat,dass jeder Deutsche 1 1/2 oz. bekäme.
Die Tatsache, dass dann auch kein Knüppel mehr im Sack ist den Preis zu drücken wäre auch noch zu erwähnen. Dann würden die jährlichen Supplydefizite von ca. 1000 bis 1500 tons. den Goldpreis auf neue Höhen schicken.
Es ist wohl kaum zu erwarten, dass sich die ZB selbst so in die Pfanne hauen. Aber.....wenn die Amis das so wollen, dann wäre auch dagegen schlecht etwas zu machen.
J2

[Magor]

# 6481
- Die Schulden müssen zurückgezahlt werden.
....

oder,
irgendwann kommt zur Problemlösung aller betroffenen Staaten eine konzertierte Währungsreform ...

Wäre doch garnicht so unüblich.

Grüße
Magor

[YoyoStock]

#6480, was wird passieren?

stelle dir doch einmal vor, alle wollen/müßen dann ihr gold verkaufen. (weil sie geld brauchen)

wie dumm wären sie, das gold auf den markt zu schmeißen und sich selbst den preis zu zerstören.
im gegenteil, es könnte durchaus sein, daß der goldpreis etwas höher getrieben wird (ok, JPM hat dann ein problem)
ich glaube jedenfalls nicht, daß der preis derart verfällt, nur weil alle frei ihr gold handeln können.
am ende wird es sich ausgleichen, die fördermengen gehen ja auch zurück (rohstoffverknappung), so daß die angebots und nachfrage vielleicht sogar noch steigen wird. einmal abgesehen vom verfall des papiergeldes.

außerdem haben die deutsche kaum noch gold, an das sie kommen, ohne einwilligung der amis wird das sowieso nichts und der ami wird sich hüten, daß gold zurück zu geben.
die flachpfeifen von unseren politikern haben nicht den mut, dieses gold endlich einmal einzufordern.

am ende wird es so bleiben wie es ist.

[ThaiGuru]

JULY 17, 2003

Round Up The Usual Suspects?

Q: Jim, you said that the Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Federal Reserve along with the investment banks were the likely suspects for the clearly manipulative or as you say from another perspective the stabilizing transactions that bulled the general equity averages in Europe, Monday last, resulting in the Dow near a plus 200 before or soon after the US market openings.

You pointed to the extremely small volume in American securities in Europe as the indexes vaulted, and you pointed to, in numerical terms, that it was clear that the index futures ran well ahead of even the very small up volume on US shares pre-US opening, and market did not run the index futures in that operation.

Well, Sir, I take no one`s word, so I asked the Federal Reserve and here is a return letter redacted to show respect to those that helped me get the real truth. So Jimmy smarty pants, what do you say about this?



A: You did in fact get the absolute truth but you mixed up what I said. The Federal Reserve produces the finances for the Treasury. In fact the Federal Reserve is obligated to do so.

The Secretary of the Treasury and the President of the United States are in charge of what is called the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). I have given you below the Treasury regulations concerning the ESF.

At present the ESF has capitalization in excess of 30 billion USD. Like all dealing entities can, and more than likely do, they take positions at sizes which are multiples of their capital position.

When I ran my firms I could take positions equal to 18 times my capital. Rules have changed but not that much. If so, the Treasury would finance that and in turn the Federal Reserve would produce anything required for the Treasury. Therefore, the Fed finances the Treasury. That is the order of financial march. So you can see that the EFS is a powerhouse trading body operating in the market place.

However, when these committees were contacted requesting a copy of these reports, we were told that the committees have determined not to distribute this information to the public. " target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">However, when these committees were contacted requesting a copy of these reports, we were told that the committees have determined not to distribute this information to the public.

So please understand that the dealing entity in currency, gold and securities is not the Federal Reserve but rather the totally secret arm of the US government, the ESF.

You will note in the regulations that no government person has the right to review the decisions of the Secretary of the Treasury or President concerning positions taken or loans made to governments in accord with these regulations.

You need not take my word for it. These regulations tell you that there is an extremely rich government entity fully empowered to trade in the items listed. I am an old and experienced professional trader of 44 years in all these items. I know exactly what a transaction looks like that is manipulative - in terms of the difference between a trade to buy or sell significant amounts of anything - from an attempt to simply establish price to benefit some private agenda.


Please see the treasury regulations below:" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">When I tell you a market is being jobbed, you can believe it is being jobbed. If you like what is happening you call it "STABILIZATION." If you do not like what is happening it is "MANIPULATION." In reality, a market being jobbed is simply a market being jobbed.

Please see the treasury regulations below:


TITLE 31--MONEY AND FINANCE
SUBTITLE IV--MONEY
CHAPTER 53--MONETARY TRANSACTIONS
SUBCHAPTER I--CREDIT AND MONETARY EXPANSION

Sec. 5302. Stabilizing exchange rates and arrangements.

(a)(1) The Department of the Treasury has a Stabilization Fund. The fund is available to carry out this section, section 18 of the Bretton Woods Agreement Act (22 U.S.C. 286e-3), and section 3 of the Special Drawing Rights Act (22 U.S.C. 286o), and for investing in obligations of the United States Government those amounts in the fund the Secretary of the Treasury, with the approval of the President, decides are not required at the time to carry out this section. Proceeds of sales and investments, earnings, and interest shall be paid into the fund and are available to carry out this section. However, the fund is not available to pay administrative expenses.

(2) Subject to approval by the President, the fund is under the exclusive control of the Secretary, and may not be used in a way that direct control and custody pass from the President and the Secretary. Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government.

(b) Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund on orderly exchange arrangements and a stable system of exchange rates, the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary. However, a loan or credit to a foreign entity or government of a foreign country may be made for more than 6 months in any 12-month period only if the President gives Congress a written statement that unique or emergency circumstances require the loan or credit be for more than 6 months.

(c)(1) By the 30th day after the end of each month, the Secretary shall give the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate a detailed financial statement on the
stabilization fund showing all agreements made or renewed, all transactions occurring during the month, and all projected liabilities.

(2) The Secretary shall report each year to the President and Congress on the operation of the fund.

(d) A repayment of any part of the first subscription payment of the Government to the International Monetary Fund, previously paid from the stabilization fund, shall be deposited in the Treasury as a miscellaneous receipt.

www.lemetropolecafe.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">You will also note that the regulations permit the ESF to deal in US securities and gold. There is no clarifying regulation that narrows the legal definition of the word security or gold so it is reasonable to assume that the ESF can - and if directed to by either President Bush or Secretary Snow -deal in US securities and/or derivatives representing them. It would follow from the reading of these regulations that the ESF also could, if directed, deal in gold or derivatives based on gold.

As is evident in the regulations that empower the ESF, you will discover that the ESF has a reporting requirement to the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate.

A detailed financial statement on the
stabilization fund showing all agreements made or renewed, all transactions occurring during the month, and all projected liabilities is required.

However, when these committees were contacted requesting a copy of these reports, we were told that the committees have determined not to distribute this information to the public.

So please understand that the dealing entity in currency, gold and securities is not the Federal Reserve but rather the totally secret arm of the US government, the ESF.

You will note in the regulations that no government person has the right to review the decisions of the Secretary of the Treasury or President concerning positions taken or loans made to governments in accord with these regulations.

You need not take my word for it. These regulations tell you that there is an extremely rich government entity fully empowered to trade in the items listed. I am an old and experienced professional trader of 44 years in all these items. I know exactly what a transaction looks like that is manipulative - in terms of the difference between a trade to buy or sell significant amounts of anything - from an attempt to simply establish price to benefit some private agenda.


Please see the treasury regulations below:" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">When I tell you a market is being jobbed, you can believe it is being jobbed. If you like what is happening you call it "STABILIZATION." If you do not like what is happening it is "MANIPULATION." In reality, a market being jobbed is simply a market being jobbed.

Please see the treasury regulations below:


TITLE 31--MONEY AND FINANCE
SUBTITLE IV--MONEY
CHAPTER 53--MONETARY TRANSACTIONS
SUBCHAPTER I--CREDIT AND MONETARY EXPANSION

Sec. 5302. Stabilizing exchange rates and arrangements.

(a)(1) The Department of the Treasury has a Stabilization Fund. The fund is available to carry out this section, section 18 of the Bretton Woods Agreement Act (22 U.S.C. 286e-3), and section 3 of the Special Drawing Rights Act (22 U.S.C. 286o), and for investing in obligations of the United States Government those amounts in the fund the Secretary of the Treasury, with the approval of the President, decides are not required at the time to carry out this section. Proceeds of sales and investments, earnings, and interest shall be paid into the fund and are available to carry out this section. However, the fund is not available to pay administrative expenses.

(2) Subject to approval by the President, the fund is under the exclusive control of the Secretary, and may not be used in a way that direct control and custody pass from the President and the Secretary. Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government.

(b) Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund on orderly exchange arrangements and a stable system of exchange rates, the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary. However, a loan or credit to a foreign entity or government of a foreign country may be made for more than 6 months in any 12-month period only if the President gives Congress a written statement that unique or emergency circumstances require the loan or credit be for more than 6 months.

(c)(1) By the 30th day after the end of each month, the Secretary shall give the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate a detailed financial statement on the
stabilization fund showing all agreements made or renewed, all transactions occurring during the month, and all projected liabilities.

(2) The Secretary shall report each year to the President and Congress on the operation of the fund.

(d) A repayment of any part of the first subscription payment of the Government to the International Monetary Fund, previously paid from the stabilization fund, shall be deposited in the Treasury as a miscellaneous receipt.

www.lemetropolecafe.com[/u]

[ThaiGuru]

From The King Report out last night late (16.7.03, TG):

Freddie Mac says the back-up in mortgage rates is the most dramatic since `94. Mexico remembers.

Bush staged a propaganda event at the WH by displaying a group of private-sector economists that endorse his tax cut and forecast faster growth for the economy in the second half of `03. The sappy pep rally, adorned with ill-advising permabulls is a clear sign of increasing WH fear about the economy.

Today is a key day for stocks. Recent market weakness has turned short-term moving averages of major indices flat and the indices are at the moving averages. A flat moving averages mean the trend is neutral and subsequent material breeches will foster a trend…

We mentioned a few weeks ago that Japanese officials are exploring the possibility of taxing savings and the EU already has such a tax.

Now, the Dallas Fed is not only discussing a tax on savings, but it also advocates a `stamp tax` on currency to fight deflation (currency isn`t honored without the periodic stamps - the theme of the report is that as short rates near zero conventional Fed operations become useless in stimulating the economy).

They also insult one`s intelligence by saying the Fed could avert deflation by monetizing the debt from US government purchases of goods & services.

Are these idiots ignorant of how the US government and Fed operate or do they think we`re that ignorant? Another means to fight deflation according to the cave dwellers at the Dallas Fed is for the Fed to engage in the purchase of foreign currencies and long-term govies and agencies.

Brilliant! What revolutionary and insightful thinking. And these guys get paid for this? We couldn`t make up such infuriating nonsense. No wonder the US is in such a fix. See for yourself at:

http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/research/hot/bd0503.html

The WH and Fed propaganda campaign to convince the public that all is about to be well or they still have the ways and means to make it well is an unambiguous sign of desperation and fear.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The Dallas Fed notes: "The year-to-year change in private payrolls has been negative for 22 straight months-the longest uninterrupted stretch of job losses since 1944-6."

Thompson Financial reports the ratio of insider selling to buying hit 29.8 in June, the highest reading in 6 years. The historical average is 14. 10 of the 14 times the indicator rose above 20 in the past 10 years, the S&P declined 10 times over the subsequent 6 months. Tech purchases were only $2m. Looks like the captains of tech don`t see the same 54% Q3 earnings jump that Wall Street barkers do.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Für die Ungläubigen, Ignoranten, und Gold Pessimisten in diesem Gold Board Thread, noch die orginal Quelle für die im letzten GATA Posting gemachten Befürchtungen.

!!! Fiktion ???

Wär das nicht toll, jeder von uns lässt sich unsere Fiat Money Papier Dollars 1, 2, oder 3 x im Jahr mit einer Marke versehen, und bezahlt eine Gebühr dafür(Z.Bsp. an eine private Firma wie die FED)! Falls die Gebühr nicht bezahlt wird, oder die Gültigkeitsdauer der Marke abgelaufen ist, wir der Fiat Money Dollar Geldschein ungültig.

Bei den Japanern ist ja auch bereits so was ähnliches in der Planungs-/Diskussionsphase.

Wär doch auch was für den Euro, damit die Leute, um eine Neuzahlung der Marken zu umgehen, ihre Scheine schnellstens ausgeben, weil damit die Wirtschaft wieder auf Touren kommen soll.

Wer bei solchen Ueberlegungen, und Aussichten, presentiert von Evan F. Koenig, Vizepresident, and Jim Dolmas, senior Economist, Research Department, der Federal Reserve Bank von Dallas, nicht an eine erfolgreiche Zukunft von physischem Gold, und auch Silber glaubt, dem kann meiner Meinung nach, als hoffnungslosem Fall nichts mehr helfen, bis es bereits zu spät ist, sich auf die Dinge vorzubereiten, die da in riesen Schritten gerade auf uns alle zukommen.



http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/research/hot/bd0503.html

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas



May 2003

Monetary Policy in a Zero-Interest-Rate Economy
Evan F. Koenig
Jim Dolmas

Open PDF* to view any nontext material.http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/research/pdfs/bd0503.pdf

Based on a presentation by Evan F. Koenig, vice president, and Jim Dolmas, senior economist, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

If short-term interest rates fall toward zero, it may be necessary for the Fed to re-think how it conducts monetary policy. In this document, we examine why conventional policy loses its effectiveness at very low interest rates, and review some of the alternative policy tools that are available. We’re hopeful that this entire discussion will prove to be academic—that our economy’s natural resilience, together with the easing the Fed has already undertaken, will be sufficient to get employment and output growing again. But it’s nice to know that if additional stimulus is required, there are still arrows left in the quiver.

The Recovery May Be Stalling Despite Low Interest Rates

As shown in Figure 1, short-term interest rates are as close to zero as they’ve been at any time since 1958. Any further rate reduction will make life difficult for banks and money market funds, which will either have to start paying out less than a dollar for each dollar invested, or to begin charging explicit management fees.

As of August of last year, it certainly looked as though further interest-rate cuts would not be required. Important monthly indicators like industrial production and payroll employment were clearly on the upswing (Figure 2). Since August, however, the incipient recovery hasn’t unfolded according to plan. Employment has been particularly weak, hitting new cyclical lows for three months running.[1] We’re hopeful that positive trends will reemerge now that the Iraq situation has been more-or-less resolved. But if we’re wrong, or if another adverse shock hits the world economy, then new stimulus will be required.

The Conventional Response to a Weak Economy: Open-Market Operations

Usually, the Fed attacks weakness in the economy by conducting expansionary open market operations. In a typical open-market operation, the Fed purchases Treasury bills from bond traders in the New York securities market. The effect is to increase liquidity in the economy—cash and bank reserves rise while the number of Treasury bills held by the public falls—and to lower short-term interest rates. Lower interest rates encourage consumption and investment, and greater liquidity provides the means to finance the new expenditures.

Unfortunately, conventional open market operations lose their effectiveness as the yield on Treasury bills is driven to zero. At a zero interest rate, a Treasury bill is no different from vault cash or large-denomination currency. An open-market operation is like the Fed offering to exchange twenty $1 bills for one $20 bill: The increase in liquidity is negligible. Moreover, there is no way to achieve any further reduction in the interest rate. Why would anyone accept a negative return on Treasury bills when they have the option of holding cash, which offers a zero return? With no increase in liquidity and no reduction in the interest rate, there is no reason to expect an open-market operation to produce any increase in household or business spending.

The Zero-Interest-Rate Bound Can Lead to Serious Trouble if There is Deflation

Policymakers can find themselves in serious trouble if they come up against the zero interest rate bound during a period of falling prices—that is, during a period of deflation. That’s because what ultimately matters to households and firms is the real cost of borrowing—what economists call the real interest rate. The real interest rate is the difference between the market, or “nominal,” interest rate and the rate of inflation. It is the prospect of a low real interest rate that makes current consumption and investment spending attractive. The trouble is, even a zero nominal interest rate can produce an expected real interest rate that is too high if people expect a negative inflation rate.

For example, if prices fall at a 3 percent annual rate, then a zero nominal interest rate puts the real cost of borrowing at a positive 3 percent. The prospect of a 3 percent real interest rate might be just fine in a healthy, growing economy. It will be excessive, however, in an economy where the growth outlook is poor, or where fragile finances have led households and firms to become cautious about spending and banks to become cautious about lending.

Unpleasant Scenarios

The U.S. Great Depression is the textbook example of what can go wrong if policymakers are slow to respond to a deteriorating economy and falling inflation. As shown in Figure 3, the Federal Reserve cut the short-term nominal interest rate from 5 percent in 1929 to 0.5 percent in late 1932. However, inflation fell even faster. Consequently, the real interest rate—the difference between the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate—actually increased, rising from 3.5 percent in the spring of 1929 to a peak of 15 percent in late 1931 and early 1932. Monetary policy was, effectively, becoming tighter and tighter in the early 1930s, rather than easier and easier.

As a result, industrial output fell by a whopping 50 percent relative to trend. Recovery didn’t begin until 1933, when the Roosevelt administration suspended gold payments and allowed the dollar to depreciate. Inflation rose well above the nominal interest rate, turning the real interest rate sharply negative.

Japan in the 1990s provides a more recent example of the trouble that can be caused by the zero interest-rate bound. Like the Depression-era Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan cut short-term nominal interest rates in response to a weak economy (Figure 4). By the second half of 1995, the 3-month government rate was essentially zero. Although the interest-rate decline was too slow to prevent inflation rate from turning into deflation, the real interest rate fell from 5 percent in late 1990, to 3 percent in 1993, to 1 percent or less in 1995, 1996 and 1997. Industrial output, which had nosedived in the early 90s, began to recover in 1996. But then the Asian economic crisis hit. Conventional monetary policy was powerless to respond, and Japan remains mired in depression to this day.

Whither the U.S. Economy?

It took the Bank of Japan six years to get short-term interest rates (briefly) down below the rate of inflation. As shown in Figure 5, the Fed has closed the interest-rate—inflation gap in less than half the time. This relatively quick action has prevented inflation from becoming outright deflation and avoided any significant damage to U.S. financial institutions.

As we saw earlier, however, recent declines in industrial output have raised concerns that the U.S. economy may be stalling out. With the nominal interest rate so close to zero that conventional open-market operations are of doubtful effectiveness, what policy options are available to the Fed, should further stimulus be required?

Strategies for Overcoming the Zero Bound

A number of strategies have been proposed for pulling the economy out of a zero-interest-rate trap, ranging from the radical to the mundane and from the practically difficult to the eminently practicable. In this part of the presentation we examine several such strategies. We first consider the boldest, though also the most difficult to implement—eliminating the zero bound altogether. Turning towards more workable strategies, we examine modifications to standard policy that avoid some of the problems alluded to in the first part of the presentation. Among these more workable approaches are strategies that require the coordination of Fed policy with that of other actors—either foreign central banks or domestic fiscal policy-makers—and strategies that the Fed can follow unilaterally.

Bold, but Impractical—Eliminating the Bound Altogether

The most daring suggestion for escaping the zero-interest-rate trap is one that eliminates the zero lower bound altogether. How can this be done? As noted in the first part of the presentation, the zero bound on interest rates exists because money pays a sure nominal interest rate of zero. No one would be willing to hold any asset that pays a negative nominal rate, as long as zero-interest money is available as a store of value. The strategy for eliminating the zero bound, therefore, is to make money pay a negative nominal interest rate, by imposing some type of "carry tax" on currency and deposits.

It’s easy to envision such a system with regard to deposits at the Federal Reserve or transactions deposits at banks; for the most part, the technology to implement such a system is already in place. A tax or fee on Reserve deposits of 1 percent per month, for example, would mean that those deposits, in effect, pay a nominal interest rate of roughly minus 12 percent.

The technological difficulty lies mainly in imposing such a tax on currency. In the 1930s, Irving Fisher of Yale University, one of the greatest American economists, proposed such a system, in which currency had to be periodically ‘stamped’, for a fee, in order to retain its status as legal tender. The stamp fee could be calibrated to generate any negative nominal interest rate that the central bank desired.

While the technology available for implementing such a system is more sophisticated today than in Fisher’s time, enforcement still seems a mammoth problem, involving physical modifications to currency and some means of tracking the length of time each piece spends in circulation.

Given the technological hurdles involved in its implementation, a carry tax on money may not be feasible as a response to any events that might transpire in the next year, though it certainly merits study as a possible response to events that might transpire in the next decade. This is particularly the case if achieving and maintaining price stability makes bumping up against the zero interest rate bound a more frequent event.

More Workable Modifications to Standard Policy

If the bound can’t be easily sidestepped—at least in the immediate future—what options does the Fed have? As implied in the first part of the presentation, one key is to conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn’t simply give the private sector “change for a twenty”—that is, monetary policy must take actions which expand the sum of zero-interest money and its zero-yielding substitutes, not simply swap one for the other. This can be done through purchases of assets that are not perfect substitutes for money. We will consider three possible candidates:

1. Foreign exchange

2. Real goods and services

3. Other domestic securities-such as longer-term Treasuries.

Strategies which target the first two candidates, as we’ll see, can only succeed if the Fed coordinates its policy actions with those of other actors—namely, foreign central banks or domestic fiscal policy-makers. A strategy targeting the third is something the Fed can do today, unilaterally, within the constraints imposed by the Federal Reserve Act.

The Foreign Exchange Escape Route

Foreign exchange intervention has been suggested by more than one prominent economist as a surefire strategy for getting out of a zero-interest rate trap.

How would such a strategy work? In this approach, the Fed would pursue a targeted, substantial depreciation of the U.S. dollar, by purchasing foreign currency using newly minted dollars. The dollar depreciation would increase current demand by stimulating net exports—that is, by increasing sales of U.S. goods abroad and reducing purchases of foreign goods in the U.S. If the Fed committed to maintain the depreciated dollar for some length of time, inflationary expectations could also increase. Higher expected inflation, in turn, would result in a lower prospective real interest rate, even if nominal rates do not change.

The big problem with this strategy is that, in a roundabout way, it amounts to conducting a monetary contraction in our trading partners’ economies.

In buying up another country’s currency—and assuming the Fed simply holds, rather than spends, that foreign currency—the Fed would, in effect, be reducing the foreign economy’s supply of money and, likely, raising interest rates there as well. If the foreign central bank was attempting to pursue a neutral or expansionary policy, the Fed’s action might generate some consternation or even a policy response. If the Fed purchased Euros, for example, the European Central Bank might respond by simply printing more of them, thus neutralizing the Fed’s action.

To be successful, this strategy requires cooperation, or at least acquiescence, on the part of our trading partners. Given growth prospects elsewhere around the globe, such acquiescence, while not impossible, seems unlikely.

The Goods & Services Solution

Why not have the Fed just conduct an open market purchase of real goods and services? Even more so than exchange rate intervention, this strategy would represent a direct stimulus to aggregate demand.

As posed, though, the strategy has a major drawback: it violates the Federal Reserve Act. The Fed isn’t authorized to purchase goods and services, apart from those needed for the operation of the Federal Reserve System.

The strategy can be implemented, however, by coordination with fiscal policy-makers. The Federal government, for example, could purchase goods and services and finance the purchases with new debt, which the Fed in turn would buy—in technical terminology, the Fed would "monetize" the resulting debt.

By coordinating with fiscal policy, the Fed could even implement what is essentially the classic textbook policy of dropping freshly printed money from a helicopter. In this case, the Fed would monetize government debt that had been issued to finance a tax cut.

The scale of operations entailed by this approach would be large—to monetize government spending equal to 1 percent of GDP, for example, could mean increasing the monetary base (the sum of currency and bank reserves) by as much as 15-20 percent. Though trite to say, it is nonetheless true that extreme times could require extreme measures.

The Simplest Strategy: Buying Other Domestic Securities

We finally turn to the simplest strategy: buying other domestic securities. Even if the short riskless rate is equal to zero, other interest rates on other securities will generally be positive, and those securities could be targets for open market operations. This is a course of action that the Fed can follow today, without coordinating its action with other policy-makers, or running afoul of the Federal Reserve Act.

The Federal Reserve Act does impose restrictions on what type of domestic securities the Fed may or may not buy through open market operations. These are detailed in Figure 6.

Some of the securities in the “allowed” column may be less-than-familiar. “Debt guaranteed by the U.S. government” refers to the debt of government-backed enterprises such as Ginnie Mae. A “bill of exchange” is essentially a draft order which specifies a future date on which the order is to be executed. “Bankers acceptances” are bills of exchange in which the bank on which the draft order is made guarantees payment.

For all practical purposes, the legal constraints limit open market operations to U.S. government debt or the debt guaranteed by the U.S. government. The markets for bills of exchange and bankers’ acceptances are simply too small to be of any use.

What if the assets in the “not allowed” column were “allowed”, though? This point is not moot, since aggressive use of the discount window—under certain emergency provisions in the Federal Reserve Act—can allow the Fed to sidestep, to some extent, the restrictions which apply to open market operations.

Even if the legal constraints were not present, however, it’s not necessarily desirable to have the Fed acting in markets for corporate debt or mortgages. Whatever benefits there might be from such actions would have to be weighed against the cost of putting the Fed in the business of allocating private sector credit—a task for which the Fed has no particular expertise, and which would likely subject the Fed to unwelcome political pressures.

In what follows, we concentrate on purchases of government debt, though one should bear in mind that while more is possible, it is not necessarily desirable.

How, then, would this strategy work? Following this avenue, the Fed could purchase any government debt with positive yields—for example, longer-term Treasuries. In broad terms, reducing the supply of these securities forces the private sector to re-balance its portfolio. The yields on the securities whose supply has shrunk must fall, in order to make people content with holding less of them. The prices of these assets, which move in the opposite direction from yields, must rise.

For consumers, the lower yields reduce saving and spur consumption. For businesses, the lower yields can mean a lower cost of funds, while the rise in the assets’ prices can improve businesses’ balance sheets or give them more valuable collateral with which to secure financing.

This strategy, while indeed the simplest to implement, is not without problems: First of all: No one, we believe, has a good quantitative sense of the mechanics of this strategy—that is, what size operations are needed to secure a given stimulus? While the Fed has managed longer-term yields at various times in the 1940s, ‘50 and ‘60s, the last time such a strategy was implemented was nearly 40 years ago.

Second, if the short riskless rate is zero, but other rates are positive, those rates must be positive for reasons—to compensate the holders of those assets for some form of illiquidity or risk. Under this strategy, the Fed takes those risks onto its balance sheet.

This leads us to a third point: the Fed is almost guaranteed to take a capital loss on its portfolio.

If the strategy works, the economy picks up, interest rates go up, bond prices go down, and the value of the Fed’s holdings of longer-term Treasuries falls. Finally, narrowing the yield spread between assets of long and short maturity can stress institutions, such as banks, that profit from that spread. On the other hand, it must be noted, a wave of deflation-induced loan defaults would no doubt also be stressful for banks.

In Conclusion…

We’ve seen that open-market purchases of Treasury bills—the Fed’s standard method for stimulating the economy over the past 40 years—become ineffective as short-term interest rates approach zero.

With Treasury bill rates so near zero, the Fed will need to be open to alternatives to standard policy and stand ready to vigorously pursue them if the economy remains weak.

In the event it must act alone, the Fed’s best policy option is probably open-market purchases of longer-term government bonds. Efforts to influence longer-term Treasuries are not unprecedented: they were fairly common in the 1940s and early 1950s. But that’s not to say that reorienting Fed policy would be problem-free: there are good reasons why the Fed usually aims its efforts on the short end of the yield curve.

If standard policy options are exhausted, the Fed’s quiver is by no means empty. But the arrows that remain are less familiar and, perhaps, not quite as straight as the ones that have already been fired.

Notes

1 The year-to-year change in private payrolls has been negative for 22 straight months—the longest uninterrupted stretch of job losses since 1944–6.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.wams.de/data/2003/07/20/137808.html

Dollar verliert an Geschmack

Die Teilnehmer der WamS-Finanzprognose trauen dem Aufschwung der US-Währung wenig zu und folgen Greenspans Konjunkturoptimismus nur bedingt
von Frank Stocker



Wie dreht Alan Greenspan eine Glühbirne ein? So fragt ein Witz unter Bankern dieser Tage. Ganz einfach, lautet die Antwort: Er hält die Birne in die Fassung und dann dreht sich die Welt um ihn.

Kaum hatte der Fed-Chef am Dienstag vor dem Repräsentantenhaus gesprochen, setzte der Dollar seinen Aufwärtstrend fort und verfielen die Kurse an den Rentenmärkten. Bis zu 4,75 Prozent Wachstum erwartet der Maestro im kommenden Jahr für die USA. Das ist viel. Am folgenden Tag, als er vor dem Senat sprach, relativierte Greenspan seine Aussagen zwar ein wenig und schickte die Märkte wieder in die andere Richtung. Dennoch: "Er hat die Latte für den wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung sehr hoch gehängt", konstatiert Michael Schubert, Kapitalmarktexperte bei der Commerzbank.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Greenspans Vorgaben sind eine schwer zu erreichende Marke", glaubt er.

Damit steht Schubert im Einklang mit der Mehrheit seiner Kollegen, wie die monatliche Umfrage von WELT am SONNTAG und der Münchener Forschungsgruppe Südprojekt unter Experten in 15 Banken zeigt. Sie rechnen nicht damit, dass sich der Konjunkturoptimismus der vergangenen Tage und Wochen ungezügelt fortsetzt.

Am deutlichsten wird dies bei den Prognosen für den Dollar. Selbst die größten Europessimisten dieser Umfrage, die Analysten der Bankgesellschaft Berlin, erwarten auf Sicht von vier Wochen einen Kurs von 1,12 Dollar je Euro. Das entspricht ungefähr dem gegenwärtigen Stand. Der Aufwärtstrend des Dollar scheint damit gestoppt. Im Durchschnitt rechnen die Experten bis Ende August sogar mit einem neuerlichen, leichten Anstieg des Euro auf über 1,13 Dollar innerhalb der nächsten sechs Monate wieder bis auf über 1,17 Dollar. "Das hohe Leistungsbilanzdefizit der USA könnte dann wieder auf den Dollarkurs drücken", erklärt Werner Fey von der ING-BHF-Bank dieses Szenario.

Beim Yen sehen die Experten zwar gegenüber dem Euro wenig Veränderung in den kommenden Monaten. Allerdings bleibt die große Frage, ob die japanische Währung sich dauerhaft gegen den Aufwertungsdruck gegenüber dem Dollar stemmen kann.

So zeigen die jüngsten Daten des japanischen Finanzministeriums, dass Anleger aus dem Land der aufgehenden Sonne allein zwischen dem 7. und 11. Juli ausländische Bonds im Wert von 1,3 Billionen Yen (rund 9,8 Milliarden Euro) verkauft haben. Da der Großteil davon in den USA investiert war, erklärt dies nicht nur den Aufwertungsdruck, der auf dem Yen lastet, sondern - zumindest teilweise - auch den Renditesprung an den Rentenmärkten der vergangenen Wochen.

Auch hier sehen die Experten jedoch zunächst eine Korrektur voraus. Für deutsche Bundesanleihen mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit erwarten sie auf Sicht von vier Wochen einen Rückgang der Rendite auf rund 3,84 Prozent. Die Analysten von der UBS rechnen sogar damit dass die alten Tiefs bei 3,50 Prozent nochmals getestet werden. Bei den entsprechenden US-Staatsanleihen sieht das Bild mit einer durchschnittlichen Prognose von 3,78 Prozent ganz ähnlich aus.

Hintergrund dafür ist, dass die meisten Analysten dem optimistischen Überschwang Greenspans nicht folgen wollen. "Es gibt zwar eine Erholung", glaubt Michael Schubert, "aber die strukturellen Probleme sind immer noch da." Sprich: Überinvestitionen, Leistungsbilanzdefizit, überbordende Staatsschulden.

Auch Werner Fey von der ING-BHF-Bank rechnet nicht damit, dass die Vorgaben Greenspans erreicht werden. Knapp drei Prozent Wachstum billigt er den USA für das kommende Jahr zu. Immerhin sieht er aber die Deflationsdebatte endgültig begraben. "Jetzt kommt Konjunkturoptimismus in die Märkte rein", so Fey. Zwar stützt diese Zuversicht sich im Moment lediglich auf Frühindikatoren. Doch Fey ist sicher, dass sich zu ihnen auch schon bald positive Nachrichten aus dem Investitionsbereich oder dem privaten Verbrauch hinzugesellen. "Im zweiten Halbjahr kommt es in den USA zu einer Konjunkturerholung." Dementsprechend prognostizieren die 15 Finanzmarktexperten für die Renditen auf Sicht von sechs Monaten auch wieder deutlich höhere Werte von 4,04 und 4,05 Prozent für die deutschen beziehungsweise amerikanischen Staatsanleihen. Allerdings: Auch dieses Niveau weist noch nicht auf einen problemlosen Aufschwung hin.

Und Gold? Von dem Edelmetall spricht inzwischen kaum noch jemand. Nach seinem Hoch zu Zeiten der Irak-Krise hat sich der Kurs inzwischen bei rund 345 Dollar je Unze eingependelt. Dort wird er nach den Prognosen der 15 Banken in den kommenden Wochen auch verharren. Die langfristigen Erwartungen driften jedoch deutlich auseinander. So sieht die WestLB den Kurs auf 305 Dollar sinken, die SEB dagegen rechnet mit einem Anstieg bis auf 375 Dollar. Kurzum: Je weiter die jeweiligen Prognosen von Greenspans Zielvorgaben entfernt liegen, desto optimistischer die Erwartungen für den Goldpreis.

Alle Banker vereint jedoch die Hoffnung, dass Greenspan sich nicht auf einen Stuhl stellt, um eine Glühbirne einzudrehen. Am Ende würde er noch stürzen und sich ein Bein brechen. Das wäre sicher das schlimmste Szenario für die Finanzmärkte.

Artikel erschienen am 20. Jul 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.the-privateer.com/front.html

Late July Issue (#480). Published on July 20, 2003

The "Purchasing Power" Of The US Dollar:

Between January 31 2002 and June 13 2003, the $US index fell from 120.59 to 92.25 - down 28.34 points or 23.5%. At the $US index close of 96.82 on July 18, the Dollar has recovered 16% of those losses.

Between January 31 2002 and June 13 2003, the spot future Treasury bond contract rose from 102.84 to 124.00 - up 21.16 points or 20.6%. At the spot future Treasury bond close of 112.31 on July 18, the contract has given up 55.2% of those gains.

The US Dollar has been rallying for the past five weeks, but its losses over the period since January 2002 are still almost 20%. The gains on Treasury debt between January 2002 and June 2003 have been more than HALVED in the past five weeks.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Since June 13, the "cushion" provided by rising prices on Treasury debt paper has been rudely ripped out from under holders of US Dollars, to an extent which is MUCH BIGGER than the gains made by the Dollar over the same period. Given this situation, the increase in "purchasing power" shown by the Dollar since June 13 is living on VERY borrowed time.

From: "the Global Market Report"
©2003 - The Privateer market letter

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sonntagsblick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=54922

Artikel vom 20. Juli 2003 / Quelle: SonntagsBlick

Übernahme oder Allianz – Zürich wird zum Provinz-Flughafen

Die Grossen rupfen die Swiss

VON DANIELA GISLER

BASEL – Swiss-Chef André Dosé sagt: «Ohne Fusion mit einer grossen Gesellschaft kann die Swiss nicht überleben.» Die CVP wehrt sich gegen eine Übernahme von Swiss durch die Lufthansa und warnt: «Die Swiss darf nicht ins Ausland verscherbelt werden.» Wie weiter? SonntagsBlick macht eine Auslegeordnung.



Was braucht die Swiss?

Die Swiss kämpft gegen Billig-Airlines und mächtige Allianzen, die ihr Passagiere streitig machen. Sie hat Verträge und Verpflichtungen am Hals, die sie Millionen kosten.

Die Swiss braucht einen Allianzpartner und einen Kredit von 500 Millionen Franken. Wenn sie von einer andern Airline übernommen würde, hätte sie beides. «Deshalb strebt man bei der Swiss den Verkauf an», sagt Thomas Bieger, Leiter des Instituts für öffentliche Dienstleistungen und Tourismus an der Universität St. Gallen. André Dosé sagt: «Wir verhandeln mit grossen europäischen und ausländischen Airlines.» Am weitesten fortgeschritten sollen die Gespräche mit Lufthansa sein, wird kolportiert.

Wo steht die Swiss finanziell?

Im Spätherbst geht der Airline das Geld aus. Die Barclays Bank hat den Auftrag, 500 Millionen Franken für die Swiss zusammenzutragen. Doch potenzielle Investoren wollen erst den Businessplan sehen. Nur: Der steht noch nicht. Laut Insidern hat die Bank ihr Mandat zurückgegeben. Die Swiss dementiert. Am Bankenhauptsitz in London sagt man nichts.

Das Bundesamt für Zivilluftfahrt (Bazl), das den Airlines die Fluggenehmigungen erteilt, drückt heute schon beide Augen zu. Laut Gesetz kann das Bazl einer Airline die Genehmigung entziehen, wenn es Zweifel hat, dass diese ihren finanziellen Verpflichtungen während zwölf Monaten nachkommen kann. Bazl-Sprecher Daniel Göring sagt, man ziehe die zwölf Monate nicht knallhart durch, da Swiss in der Restrukturierung stecke.

Was passiert, wenn die Swiss von der Lufthansa übernommen wird?

Dann wird sie zur Europa-Airline. Entschieden wird in Frankfurt. Die Swiss liefert den beiden deutschen Hubs München und Frankfurt Passagiere zu. Von Zürich aus würden etwa noch zehn Langstrecken-Destinationen angeflogen. Mit dem Hub Zürich wäre es dann vorbei.

Für Wirtschaftsprofessor Thomas Bieger macht die Partnerschaft Swiss/Lufthansa Sinn. «Das gäbe allenfalls Kapital, eine Bereinigung des Netzwerks, klare Geschäftsperspektiven, Motivation und Aufstiegsmöglichkeiten für das Personal. Die Kunden hätten Zugang zu einem weltweiten Netz, ein attraktives Meilenprogramm – alles, was die Star-Allianz bietet.» Doch die Lufthansa lässt sich Zeit – die Swiss wird immer günstiger.

Wäre eine Zusammenarbeit mit British Airways sinnvoller?

Die Briten hatten bisher kein Interesse an der Swiss. Als Allianz-Führer haben sie sich gegen den Eintritt der Swiss in die Oneworld gewehrt. Doch das könnte sich ändern. Der deutsche Luftfahrtexperte Dieter Schneiderbauer sagt: «Im europäischen Airline-Business liefern sich die drei Grossen – British Airways, Air France und Lufthansa – ein Rennen. Die Deutschen und die Franzosen expandieren aggressiv. Die Briten müssen sich fragen, welche Rolle sie spielen.» Wird die Swiss für die Briten doch noch interessant? ZKB-Analyst Patrik Schwendimann schränkt ein: «Die Swiss hat keine Zeit, lange zu warten.»

Die Vorteile eines Beitritts zur Oneworld wären die gleichen wie bei der Star-Allianz. Professor Bieger: «Nur die Erträge wären nicht so hoch, weil der Haupthub London weiter weg ist – es gäbe weniger Zubringerflüge.»

Welche Alternativen gibt es?

Aviatik-Experte François A. Bernath ist überzeugt, dass weder Lufthansa noch British Airways an der Swiss interessiert sind. «Die Deutschen wollen nur den Schweizer Markt erobern.» Die Schweiz dürfe nicht warten, bis die ausländischen Airlines ihr die Filets im Schweizer Airline-Business wegschnappen, tönt es aus Kreisen, die sich für eine nationale Airline stark machen.

Der Plan: Die heutige Swiss wird liquidiert. So ist man die teuren Pilotenverträge und Übernahmeverpflichtungen von Flugzeugen los. Eine kleine, feine Schweizer Airline, neu gegründet, bedient nur noch profitable Destinationen. «Die Investoren findet man in der Schweiz», glaubt ein Insider. Die Vorbereitungen laufen.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.swissinfo.org/sde/swissinfo.html?siteSect=143&sid…

Sonntag 20.07.2003, MEZ 16:15

19. Juli 2003 04:48

US-Pensionsfonds verklagen AOL Time Warner wegen Betrugs

SAN FRANCISCO - Zwei der grössten US-Pensionsfonds, Calpers und Calstrs, haben am Freitag den weltgrössten Medienkonzern AOL Time Warner wegen mutmasslichen Betrugs verklagt. Der Aktienkurs sei durch übertriebene Umsatzangaben in die Höhe getrieben worden.

Calpers forderte nach eigenen Angaben eine Rückerstattung von 250 Millionen Dollar. Eine Calstrs-Sprecherin sagte, rund 200 Millionen Dollar würden gefordert. Hintergrund der Klage sind laut Calpers Unregelmässigkeiten bei Abrechnungen der damals noch unabhängigen Internet-Sparte America Online (AOL) vor und nach der Fusion mit Time Warner.

Gegen den Konzern wurden bereits mindestens 30 Klagen von Aktionären eingereicht. Gemäss Calpers wurden die Umsätze durch «betrügerische» Transaktionen und «unsaubere» Abrechnungen übertrieben dargestellt. So seien die Werbe-Einnahmen der AOL-Internet-Sparte vor und nach der Fusion um mindestens 1,7 Milliarden Dollar zu hoch angegeben worden.

Die Calpers-Klage richte sich gegen AOL, AOL Time Warner sowie frühere und derzeitige Mitglieder der Unternehmensspitzen, darunter Stephen Case, Gerald Levin, Robert Pittman und David Colburn. Betroffen seien auch die Finanzberater von AOL Time Warner, Salomon Smith Barney und Morgan Stanley, sowie der Wirtschaftsprüfer Ernest&Young, die an der Fusion mitgewirkt haben.
Calpers (California Public Employees` Retirement System) ist der grösste Pensionsfonds der USA. Casltrs (California State Teachers` Retirement System) steht an dritter Stelle.

AOL und Time Warner hatten im Januar 2001 ihre Fusion über die Bühne gebracht. Für 2002 hatte AOL Time Warner einen Verlust von fast 100 Milliarden Dollar ausgewiesen. 190448 jul


SDA-ATS

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/SBAY-5PKK8T?OpenDocumen…

No quarter for SA golds

By: Daniel Thöle

Posted: 2003/07/18 Fri 10:00 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003

JOHANNESBURG – South African gold shares could face a substantial de-rating once the country’s gold producers report what are widely expected to be dismal results for the June quarter. The first results will be reported this week, with Avgold on Wednesday and Durban Roodepoort Deep on Thursday.

Analysts are expecting an even tougher quarter than the March reporting period, when the rand and a lower gold price teamed to squash margins. There is broad consensus is that of the three largest local producers, world number two producer, AngloGold, will again be the pick of the local producers, and that Harmony will have had the toughest quarter.

Analysts said the poor performance of the gold companies in the June quarter has been priced in to the sector’s shares, but that there may be some selling as investors use the poor results as an excuse for a sell off. The Gold Mining index is trading on a historic price to earnings ratio of 12, which analysts say is reasonable compared to an average of 15. From June 2001 to 2002, it traded around the mid-20s to 30s. But the forward p:e, a measure of sector’s price in relation to the earnings it is expected to make, around the “very high teens” according to one analyst. “That’s expensive,” he said.

HSBC gold analyst Alan Cooke said corporate action like the proposed AngloGold/Ashanti merger and volatility in the rand would occupy minds and drive share performance more than the earnings outlook in the coming months.

Daryl Castle, a resources fund manger at Stanlib Asset Management in Johannesburg, said earnings would be down across the board. “On the actual core numbers what you’re going to find is Harmony could be even worse than 70% down, Gold Fields will be in the mid – 30s (percent down) and AngloGold in the mid-20s,” said Castle.

The rand, sure to again be singled out as the cause of much pain amongst the country’s gold miners, averaged R7,62 in the June quarter, significantly stronger than the R8,34 average that it showed in the three months to March. The dollar gold price fell 2.3% during the quarter, and was down 8% in rand terms.

Merrill Lynch identifies the key issues facing gold companies this quarter as “margin squeeze” from the steadily declining rand gold price, constraints on lowering costs and higher cash costs in dollar terms. The group said higher gold output was crucial to ameliorate declining unit revenue.

Harmony

World number five producer Harmony is believed to have had a tough production quarter, and Merrill Lynch expects a decline in output from the 22,211kg production seen in the three months to March.

Harmony has lower margins than its major local rivals – AngloGold and Gold Fields.

Cooke forecasts earnings per share at 75c, a decline that would be consistent with a steady dip in earnings, mirroring the rand’s strength over the last year. Harmony’s eps was 130c in the March quarter, half of the 262c reported in the December quarter.

Anglogold

Anglogold is again expected to be the best performer amongst the country’s gold majors as its geographical diversification away South Africa has reduced its rand reliance. A strong operational performance has also helped limit the damage rivals have sustained.

Cooke forecasts earnings per share of 220c, down from 275c in the March quarter, driven by a weaker rand and gold prices.

The group is expected to have boosted gold output 11,4% to 48,550kg, after recovering from production related problems in the March quarter.

Gold Fields

Castle said Gold Fields is expected to show a dip in headline earnings of up to 10%. Forecasts show eps dipping to around 60c from 101c in March. The group will have gained from its sale of 20 million shares in Toronto listed Eldorado Gold, which it sold for C$45m.

Despite gold recovery problems which are expected to damage performance from itsKloof mine, the company’s gold production is forecast to increase marginally from the 33,340kg produced in March.

Durban Roodepoort Deep

The marginal producer is expected to have made gains on the back of its hedge instruments, which increase in value when the rand strengthens.

Despite being able to report lower cash costs, DRD is still faced with losses on a group level. Merrill Lynch forecasts an increase in attributable earnings per share to 43c from 13c.

Castle says, however, that he sees the group making losses. “I think we could even see some losses from Durban Deep, although the accounting is very complicated with Durban Deep in terms of non-cash items coming through the income statement. So on a cash basis I don’t think it will look good, but who knows on the headline earnings number,” he said.

Production is expected to rise just over 1%, a gain Merrill Lynch sees developing from higher grades at the group’s North West mines, Harties and Buffelsfontein. DRD produced 6 501kg of gold in the first quarter.

[ThaiGuru]

Auf eine neue goldene Woche!

[silverpwd]

Gold zeigt weiterhin Zuckungen Richtung Outperformer zum US$.
So muss es sein, wenn die Goldbullen Kohle machen wollen.
Mein Spielgeld in Mini-Futures-Gold wird aufgestockt, sollte die 350 nachhaltig durchschritten werden.

[Tippgeber1]

@alle

das hier fand ich einfach gut und wahr!!!!


Aus 100 Dollar 110 Dollar zu machen, ist Arbeit.
Aus 100 Millionen Dollar 110 Millionen Dollar
zu machen, ist unvermeidlich.

Edgar Bronfman,Milliardär und Seagram-Chef


Liebe Grüße
Tippgeber

[ThaiGuru]

July 21 - Gold $351.10 up $4.05 - Silver $4.71 unchanged

Gold Takes Out $350/Shares Surge/Bond Debacle Continues

Kites rise highest against the wind - not with it...
Sir Winston Churchill

Had a wonderful time with my special family in San Diego, but it’s great to be back to get a rest. The kids wore me out…going to small kid entertainment centers, Legoland (an amusement parks for kids), keeping an eye on them during a Yacht cruise on San Diego Bay, noise crescendos at dinner parties, etc. Much fun though and healthy change of pace. Meanwhile, my Lap Top crashed on Friday, killing MIDAS commentary for that day.

Had a nice chat with David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund, who was on my flight back to Dallas from San Diego. I offered my opinion he had the toughest job in the investment world at the moment. His big day and easier times are coming.

It appears the dollar is following gold again, NOT the other way around. That was the case early last year and could be the case again. Gold roared off its lows the past few days and now the foreign currencies are beginning to follow suit. Friday was a pivotal day. Gold closed $2.85 higher with the dollar closing slightly higher at the same time.

Today, gold was firm all evening long in Asia and then popped during the Comex session with the dollar (96.42, down .40) falling concurrently. Gold took out important resistance at $350 very easily:

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

The cascading bond and ten-year note market tells us the Fed is losing control of their efforts to right the economy and keep interest rates stable. This is very important to the gold market because it suggests The Gold Cartel is one step closer to losing control of their blatant gold rigging operations. My guess is we are getting very close, but are not there yet. Gold soared early during the Comex session and then was capped well within the cabal’s consistent $6 rule. With gold closing $4 higher, silver (once again) was not allowed to close higher. The entire gold/silver fraud makes me want to puke. However, I am not going to. I want those bums to get sick to their stomachs when they are finally exposed.

Gold market observations:

*It traded in the low $340 area around 8 times the past couple of weeks and held each time. That is no minor technical event.

*The bullish megaphone formation remained intact. A breakout above $355 would be extremely positive technically. It would mean the lower downtrend support line held, while the upper downtrend line gave way to constructive forces.

*As predicted, the "10+" fundamentals are proving to be too strong for The Gold Cartel.

*The physical market has given the cabal fits and kept them from breaking gold down.

*The Café Sentiment Indicator has remained very bullish for many weeks and could once again prove to be a key indicator of a major market bottom.

*Last Thursday was a monumental gold day because cabal members Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs tried to break gold down, failed, and were forced to cover.

*The bond market is refusing to rally to any significant degree and continues to submarine. The 10-year note closed at 4.2%, while the bonds were annihilated, dropping a whopping 2 ½ points. It was brought to your attention that AIG’s Bernard Connelly suggested the 10-year note could shoot to 5% if it broke 3.75%. That is looking more and more like a strong possibility. With the Fed declaring their intentions to keep short-term rates at incredibly low historic levels (or to even take them down further) and long-term rates soaring, the case for investors to move into gold is powerful.

*The astounding Iraqi war blunder by America cannot help but diminish confidence in the US government. The increasing casualty toll and escalating cost of the war will effect the US dollar and could be the trigger to send the gold price into the stratosphere.

Last Tuesday with gold at $342.90 MIDAS stated:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Bottom line for gold as financial market turmoil kicks in the US: EXTREMELY BULLLISH! Can’t see the price staying down at these levels for much longer."

It is so important to keep in mind how incredibly powerful the gold fundamentals are. None of us bulls could have ever dreamed so many gold positives would come into play at the same time.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Two John Brimelow Reports:

Friday, July 18, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.48, PM $6.86, with world gold at $344.50 and $343.60. High; ample for legal imports.

Although TOCOM volume surged this morning, up 52% to the equivalent of 34,094 Comex contracts, there was little price indication of interest: world gold went out up only 20c from the NY close at $344.40, the active contract was up only 9 yen and open interest was virtually unchanged (up 48 contracts). Possibly the pick up in activity was due to the notable weakness in the yen, which breached 119 for the first time in several weeks. While $US strength is usually thought of as inimical to a firm gold price, in the context of Japan it can be helpful since it encourages purchase of gold futures by local speculators as a convenient way of shorting the yen on a leveraged basis. Japan is closed on Monday. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 36,000 contracts.)

Another serious effort to break gold down through the 200-day moving average yesterday morning was defeated by a surge of physical buying: Bullion bank commentators are again unusually specific in attributing the attempt to speculator funds. The technical situation is getting increasingly dangerous for the shorts as a double bottom is now in place.

Reuters carries an interesting story of a bi-partisan group of US Senators questioning the effects of the flagrant undervaluation of the Chinese currency. This is the most significant reaction from political quarters to this bizarre situation, and will no doubt give the lobbyists something to do. Any prospect of revaluation, as mentioned yesterday, should be helpful to gold.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[silverpwd]

incredibly powerful the gold fundamentals ....




Gold steigt weil mehr Leute glauben, dass Gold steigen wird. Gold ist immer noch nen totes Stück Metall ohne Rendite. Naja, irgendwas muss man ja den Leuten erzählen als Begründung , und ausserdem was solls, scheint im Moment das einzige zu sein, in das man long gehen kann.

[ThaiGuru]

A Bear trap?

Monday, July 21, 2003

Still on S.C. Coast

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.51, PM $5.30, with world gold at $347.50, and $347.60. Down, of course from Friday, when world gold was $3-$4 lower, but still adequate for legal imports. The Istanbul Gold Weekly reports Turkish imports equal to the previous week at a heavy 7 tonnes.

Tokyo was closed today.

An e-mail received on Friday afternoon from a shrewd bullion dealer friend expressed the view that Comex locals (and by extension, perhaps more significantly certain CTAs), unsighted as to the behaviour of the physical market, have got themselves into a bear trap.

The CFTC data, with the substantial long liquidation reported, and of course the charts, certainly support this.

So it remains to be seen when the Bear’s friend will appear. Apparently the situation is quite serious. Consistently negative Sogen Commodities has been sufficiently alarmed to wheel out the idea that the Washington Accord will not be renewed:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The three signatory countries with the largest gold reserves are also those whose financing requirements are the most critical in the short term."

See:
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/prxmxxm/reports/sg/PMW…

Resort to the concept of major new C Bank selling invariably occurs when the Bears feel pressured.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

@Silverpwd

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Gold ist immer noch nen totes Stück Metall ohne Rendite"

Nen grösseren Mist kannste wohl nicht mehr behaupten?

Du bist und bleibst das grösste ignorante Schaf in der Herde!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[konradi]

Thai, reg´ Dich nicht auf, es lohnt nicht ! - Gruß K.

[silverpwd]

Schaf in der Herde ?
Nur weil ich den Zocker.. äh.. Finanzmarkt verstanden habe ?
Ein Schaf ist, wer den Schwachsinn auch noch glaubt, den die Stimmungsmacher der Börse (Goldbriefe, Anlegerbriefe, Bankenanalysten usw.) so den Tach über erzählen. Ich glaub nix mehr, seitdem mache ich regelmässig Kohle . Mal den Optimisten , mal den Pessimisten , Hauptsache den Anlegern schön immer eins auf die Fresse, die an etwas ganz doll glauben, ja so funktioniert die Börse !
Tsts.. Schaf in der Herde nun wirklich nich....

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

While the bond market goes into a free-fall, the Working Group on Financial Markets continue to cap gold rallies and limit stock market setbacks. Time after time, the US market seems to be about to take a severe drubbing. Doesn’t happen though. It just turns right around and goes back up, or drifts higher. New lows rarely seem to take hold. That’s because the PPT is propping the market up (see MB below), not wanting any kind of public selling panic to cause a debacle. Same reason they cap gold. The PPT crowd intentionally limits gains to dull any serious gold excitement.

The DOG is showing signs of a serious cracking, PPT or no, as it fell 27 to 1681. The DOW dropped 91 to 9097.

The bond action is nothing less than extraordinary. See:

Daily Bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

10-year daily Treasury Note
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NO/93

What chaos there must be behind the scenes! What sort of derivatives problems are lurking out there? No way you can have a dramatic plunge in rates like we have now and not have some very serious derivatives problems somewhere in financial land. Which derivatives neutron bomb will go off first, gold or an interest rate one?

One reason for sustained bond weakness:

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank and or some of its member national central banks were selling U.S. agency debt on Friday, market sources said, forcing yield spreads to widen significantly in an already jittery market, traders said.

Spreads later improved as investor buying kicked in, traders said. "This morning we have indeed seen selling by ECB banks," the trader said, noting sales totaled "several hundred million dollars." He added that the flows were "definitely higher than usual," and that there was also some buying of agencies by domestic accounts.

The ECB selling added to the accounting- and regulation-related woes of U.S. agencies Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) that have rocked the agency market for the last several weeks.

Rumors that the ECB may encourage its member banks to limit their holdings of Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) or Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News)debt and may be looking to unload some its own supply of U.S. agency debt ran rampant through the market, traders said.

A federal probe of Freddie Mac`s accounting practices and restatement of earnings was launched last month. Several members of Congress have called for more regulation of the housing finance giants.

"The ECB rumors blindsided the market," said one agency analyst. "Spreads sure blew out this morning but later improved; however, the risks remain toward widening," he said.

From The King Report Sunday night:

The Northern Trust’s chief economist, Paul Kasriel, notes in Barron’s that though interest rates are at extreme lows, the debt burden on consumers has not improved because they’ve piled on even more debt instead of getting their balance sheets in order. This suggests to us that the recession to cleanse bubble excesses has NOT yet occurred. Businesses are purging, but Easy Al and Bush, for survival reasons, won’t allow the necessary consumer cleansing to purge the system and establish a base for proper recovery…Barron’s Alan Abelson also cites a Bridgeport Associates research piece that notes the 20 top Internet stocks sport a collective PE of 4,878. If that’s not a bubble, pray tell what is?

The Boston Globe’s Jeff Jacoby:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"In the first three years of the Bush administration, government spending has climbed - in real, inflation-adjusted terms - by a staggering 15.6 percent. That far outstrips the budget growth in Clinton`s first three years, when real spending climbed just 3.5 percent. Under the first President Bush, the comparable figure was 8.3 percent; under Ronald Reagan, 6.8 percent, and under Jimmy Carter, 13.3 percent. No, that`s not a mistake: Bush is a bigger spender than Carter was."

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser on Friday:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $3.25 Billion to the repo pool totals today leaving it at $29.5 Billion still just below the 30-day MA and pressing it down.

The DOW has gapped up about 50 this AM [10:15] but seems to be slipping back. I`m confident it will finish down today although by how much is more difficult to discern.

If we look at the descending DOW 30-day MA in February we can see that the down slope was much steeper than the current up slope and also that the turn from down to up was a sharp one. That tells me that the coming move down in the DOW may be a sharp one. Perhaps the riggers are casting about for a plausible explanation?

The last five days have seen three below the DOW`s 30-day MA so things are definitely getting dicey and the NASDAQ`s volatility is also telling us that casino is a bit long in the tooth as well.

Looking forward to next Thursday we see a $14.25 Billion expiration with none set in between. Things are getting interesting.

Best,
Mike

Mike today:

Hi Bill:

Oddly, the Fed failed to issue a Temporary Repurchase Agreement Report today July 21, 2003.

I am assuming therefore that they have delivered a "No action" day and that means the repo pool total remains the same at $29.5Billion.

The DOW fell to 9095. We can now clearly see that the DOW`s 30-day MA has been broken again and we still have a substantial $14Billion expiration looming on Thursday. Four of the last 8 trading days have broken he 30-day MA to the downside.

It seems likely that the Fed`s repo pool can mitigate any large loss days for the DOW and serves to smooth out its volatility, but the overall direction is headed down. The topping action of the DOW`s 30-day moving average is now unmistakable.

There are still some neophytes who imagine that the US financial markets are freely traded entities. This is true for the bond market as its sheer size precludes effective intervention by politically motivated administration officials.

However, the stock and commodities markets are another story as the Treasury has some $30 Billion in ESF funds coupled with the Fed`s open market repurchase agreement pool of funds (Now at $29.5 Billion) with which to bend the otherwise free market inertia. Sixty billion is more than enough to effect the DOW through the purchase of futures.

By judging the bond market alone, even a conservative analyst must agree that the decisive Federal Reserve battle in the financial markets has now been lost.

There is no real upper limit to interest rates at this point and the banks dependent upon interest rate derivatives [JP Morgan and all its counter parties] now face an abyss of losses. The GSEs are hurt as well by skyrocketing interest rates.


Keep your seat belts fastened." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The amount quoted for Freddie`s recent "Overbooking" losses has been $5-6 Billion ­this is the gross market value of their entire derivative book. Did FRE`s derivatives book explode into dust? How far behind is Fannie?

Keep your seat belts fastened.

Continue to exert extreme caution when trading the index futures.

Mike

A few goodies from Chuck on Friday and the weekend:

Do you think it`s the NAsdog people trying to muzzle you? This market is all set up, rising volume and terrible breadth. I am still astonished by the closes. I wish I had kept a record of the last half hour’s manipulation. How do you like the GSS action/ Can you imagine IBM dropping 28% over a week`s time and then having a 20% reversal in one day. The Rydex numbers continue to liquidate which is very positive.

Chuck

Amazing. After such a poor day yesterday, this market has no memory. Gapped up as expected on a Friday. Such negative action, and, of course, had to sell the golds on the opening. We have had just one good opening in two weeks while the market has opened higher every day but one or two in three weeks.

But in light of the strength of the dollar and the persistent hope in making an easy buck in the market, the golds are performing well. Notice that the letter writers are back up to a 40 % plurality in their optimism.

Bill:

On the front page of the financial section in today`s Times there is a column that sounds like it is coming out of our camp. Very negative article on Chairman Al with some very perceptive quotes from a hedge fund manager and Bill Fleckenstein. Talks about the Fed fed manias in the housing and bond arenas. It can`t be long before it dribbles through the mainstream herd. My guess is at the beginning of August gauging from some of the cycle articles.

Chuck

Then today:

Is this it?

Do you have the same eerie sense that I do that this might be the launching of the confluence of moves that will lead to world-changing events? As I watch the moment-by-moment ticks in the TICK, XAU, dollar and bonds, there is something different that is taking place in these markets.

First, over the past week there has been a definite change in the selling pressure as measured by the TICKS. Today, it has been rare to see these figures which have hovered over the past months in the plus 500-1000 ranges to see them remain over the zero point. To me, this means that the sellers are starting to dominate the stock market and it is beginning to wear down the broad market, particularly as measured by the S and P.

Secondly, the weakness in the market is being accompanied by a decline not only in the dollar, but also in the bond market. This is a decoupling of the normal inverse relationship and could be a precursor of something much more significant, an assault on the financial structure. If so, we should start to see unusual weakness in the financial stocks.

Third, it might be that the dollar`s short rally is over, even though many good technicians are looking for a multi-month rally here. A weakness in the currency would muzzle any attempts by the monetary authorities to try to rescue a failing market.

Fourth, if this scenario holds, we should soon expect some very dramatic moves in the gold share market. So far, much of the huge one day sell-off in the HUI has been retaken and many of the junior mines are sitting near break out points.

The key thing to remember and keep in focus is that this is a war going on between fiat or paper money with all of the manipulation that has been accompanying it, and the preeminence of gold. My believe is that there is no middle ground nor prisoners at this juncture.

Soon, we shall witness a historic collapse in the stock market and very likely an amazingly powerful move in the gold complex.

When you examine the sentiment indicators of the stock market at this time and look at the bubbles that are ripe for popping in the bond, dollar and housing areas, it is very logical to anticipate such an explosive move.

Lemetropolecafe has published a couple of excellent timing studies over the past few days. Avail yourself of them. They are very well done. Chuck

Anyone hear anything concrete about this one:

bill...what have you heard about aig firing all of their brokers and getting out of the commodity business ? rumor has it that this is fall out from nem yandal hedges
michael k m

More proof that gold demand is strong, contrary to reports emanating from many of the bullion dealers:

Dubai`s Gold & Jewellery Group reports 35 to 40pc increase in sales

BY JAMILA QADIR

21 July 2003

DUBAI - Dubai`s Gold & Jewellery Group reported 35 to 40 per cent increase in gold and jewellery sales this summer compared to the same period of last year. The growth is mainly attributed to stable international gold prices.

K P Baiju, manager of Gold & Jewellery Group, said that the ongoing promotion within Dubai Summer Surprises (DSS 2003) and stable and favourable international gold prices have contributed to the increase in gold and jewellery sales in a big way. He said: "Normally, people tend to buy gold and jewellery when the international prices are stable. Once prices fluctuate, they tend to wait and defer their decision to buy." –END-

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">The structure of the gold industry is one of the most absurd in history. The supposed experts and analysts in the industry emanate from the highly capitalized, money laden bullion dealers. These dealers influence gold producers as they are the ones who give them gold loans to go about their business. If the gold producers do not cater to their whims, they can make life miserable for the ones who need funds to build mines, etc. The problem is the gold producers are doing business with "Hannibal Lecter" and other bullion-banking cannibals. One only need to read excerpts from this recent www.mineweb article to understand why:

Gold market gloom

By: Ken Gooding

Posted: 2003/07/20 Sun 14:01 ZE2 | © Mineweb 1997-2003

LONDON - A very gloomy picture of conditions in the gold market is painted by the latest statistics from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). They show why many observers are wondering when another major investment bank will follow the example of Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) which in October 2001 quit the bullion business completely.

Since that time other investment banks have downgraded their bullion market activities to the extent that, to all intents and purposes, they have pulled out – but in not such a high-profile manner as CSFB….

"The mood in the [bullion] business is dire. There is very little turnover and what remains is graduating to the trading houses away from the banks," says Andy Smith, analyst at Mitsui Global Precious Metals. Even some of the central banks that used to accept a modest return for lending gold to the market have withdrawn because they have decided it is no longer worth the effort….

Kamal Naqvi, precious metals specialist at Macquarie Bank in London, says the LBMA figures should surprise nobody because they reflect the huge reduction in hedging activity by the gold producers. This hedging was a major part of the bullion business during the 1990s. "So far," says Naqvi, "although it has been much discussed, we have not seen large institutional investors come in to take up the slack."..

The other source of buying interest, of course, has been the gold producers. Naqvi says: "Generally, this has not been buying as such, with the vast majority of the reduction in hedge books being the result of delivery into existing contracts. It would be better to describe it as reduced selling and this has been a sea change from the late 1990s when ever larger increases were common. The combination of rising gold prices, low contangoes and shareholder pressure has seen a much more significant and sustained period of de-hedging than anybody expected."

-END-

Business is dire because the price of gold is going higher. The long gold bear market is over. The bullion dealers don’t make any money in gold bull markets. This is one of the reasons why the they will not tell the truth about the gold market, why almost none of them are bullish, and most all have failed to call the run-up the last two years. Why anyone would listen to a word they have to say is beyond me. They are no different than the NASDOG peddlers were at the top of internet mania in early 2000. Their only interest is to promote their business, even it means fabricating the gold facts to suit their own agendas. What a scandal!

I have made my share of boner calls over the years. Anyone involved in call markets has. While away, I received a bunch of emails on what appears to be a grandiose one by the articulate and normally sound thinking Clive Maunde. Here it is an excerpt from his July 16th commentary:

Gold shares tipped their hand yesterday with a dramatic one-day plunge of a magnitude not seen for a long time, signalling an intermediate-term abort of the bullish ascending triangle pattern. Although yesterday’s decline was significant in itself, what is more important is what it portends for the near future. I have witnessed a fair number of such days, and they almost always kick off a rout. What this move implies is that important gold support around $340, which many, myself included, had expected to hold, is likely to buckle in coming days, and this further implies that the bear market rally in the dollar is going to run farther towards the area of its falling 200-day moving average, which is still some way above. Failure of support for gold at around $340 can be expected to trigger a wave of stops, which can then be expected to lead to a breakdown from the large symmetrical triangle formation that has developed this year, with a simultaneous break of the 200-day moving average, and a break of one of the long-term uptrend lines, probably leading to a decline to the $300 area. The magnitude of yesterday’s move indicates not only a fall to the lower boundary of the rising triangle in the HUI, but the fair possibility that this support will fail….

Disclosure: I am liquidating all my gold share holdings today, with a view to buying back later.

(Und war dadurch wohl beim happigen Preisanstieg bei den Goldminen, wohl wie so viele andere Gold Anal-isten, voll auf dem falschen Fuss erwischt worden?TG)

–END-

For the complete article, go to:
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1058366379.php

Many gold shares were rocked early the next day (Thursday) and then reversed course to the upside, closing higher. His commentary was served at many websites and a number of gold investors sold after the opening. For example, Golden Star Resources fell to $2.25 early, only to climb and close at $2.60, up on the day. Today, it finished at $2.79. Gold share investors who sold out Thursday morning have been bagged.

I am pointing this out not take Mr. Maunde to task, but to emphasize what MIDAS brings to the party and to highlight the value of Café members knowing what GATA knows.

The most important understanding about gold is to realize the price has been rigged for years, kept artificially below its natural equilibrium price by a factor of MANY HUNDREDS OF DOLLARS per ounce. A bunch of crooks we call The Gold Cartel has perpetuated a fraud by clandestinely feeding 10,000+ more tonnes into the gold physical market than let on by the gold world establishment. They have been able to get away with their scam because the IMF instructs its member central banks to account for lent/swapped gold as gold reserves.

This lent/swapped gold has been SOLD into the physical market and cannot be retrieved without the price of gold rising hundreds of dollars per ounce, not in a market that already has a yearly supply/demand deficit of at least 1200 tonnes.

Once The Gold Cartel loses control of this scam, the price of gold HAS TO SOAR!!!!

Gold is not just going to $400+. It is going to $800$1,000+. Investing in gold and the gold shares is the historic investment of a lifetime.

My point is that analysis of the gold market which does not take the rigging of the gold price as its primary factor is basically useless. Technical events, like the recent HUI sell-off, will often proved inconsequential and lead investors to get out of position.

Gold remains EXPLOSIVE (It’s a lot easier to visualize that after a $10 rally, isn’t it?) It is also likely to go berserk when most investors least expect it to and is another reason why it is critical to understand the big picture scenario. Once you fully comprehend what GATA knows, you will not be shaken out before the sensational move kicks in.

The HUI gained 5.28 to 149.55, while the XAU rose 2.18 to 77.66. The big drop on the XAU last Wednesday reminds me of a killer move. They are most often seen after prolonged bear markets, one which takes weak long-standing bulls out of a market, right before a giant move higher.

The Gold Cartel is still there yellin’ and scratchin’, but they are doomed. The gold fundamentals are off the chart bullish. It won’t be long before gold takes out $370 on its way to $400 and that will only be "Jacks for Openers."

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

The New York Times` Morgenson comes up with another winner. Maybe she is reading Café material?

Suddenly, Greenspan Is, Well, Mortal
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/20/business/yourmoney/20WATC.…

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Wavetrader]

@ThaiGuru: Führ deine Lease-Rates-Beobachtungen unbedingt fort... interessant ist ja auch die Tatsache, dass die Rate mindestens seit 1996 nicht mehr so niedrig war.

By the way: Bei 310 sollte nicht Schluss sein:

[hpoth]

@ThaiGuru

laß Ihn schwätzten ein blindes Huhn findet ab und zu auch ein Korn.mfg hpoth

[hpoth]

@ silverpwd,
Ganz unrecht hast Du nicht, ich mache auch fast immer das Gegenteil was die Bank emphielt und habe damit schon eine Menge Schotter gemacht, aber beim Gold oder Edelmetalle liegst Du schief.Hier mache ich auch öffters gute Gewinne,meine Performance von 1995 - 2003 liegt nach Steuern bei 12%, allerings ist hier drin auch der enorme Verlust von Hig-Tech ect. berücksichtigt sonst würde ich bei über 20 % liegen.mfg hpoth

[silverpwd]

12% in 8 Jahren und mich gleichzeitig blindes Huhn nennen ? Das ist vielleicht ne saubere Vorlage...

[ThaiGuru]

July 22 - Gold $350.50 down 60 cents - Silver $4.77 up 6 cents

Silver Pops, Geared for $5.20+

Life is a series of experiences, each one of which makes us bigger, even though it is hard to realize this. For the world was built to develop character, and we must learn that the setbacks and grieves which we endure help us in our marching onward... Henry Ford


If it weren’t such a serious matter, this gold/silver up/down thing would be comical. Morgan Stanley continues to take on JPM and Goldman Sachs in the silver pits with aggressive buying. Their trader is looking for silver to take out $5.20. Well, with silver surging ahead, The Gold Cartel couldn’t let gold stay up on the day. After rising $1.70 early on, gold was taken down. Some selling emerged when word spread Saddam Hussein’s sons had been killed by US forces. No matter what the reason, it is a rare day when silver and gold are both allowed to concurrently make sharp gains in a given trading session.

Keeping precious metals excitement to a minimum is a high priority for cabal forces.

Some specifics to report on today’s gold trading:

*In addition to the goon police, some major funds were sellers of the December gold contract. All except for John Henry who was a big buyer late. Remember when MIDAS reported John Henry selling 5,000 to 6,000 lots with gold around $342. They are covering another lemon gold trade. The man is a commodity trading genius, but maybe the world’s worst gold trader. The reason is simple. All the techniques he used to make hundreds of millions of dollars don’t work in a rigged market.

*Hedge fund/cabal groupie Moore Capital was a late seller, which allowed Henry to do some covering.

*Feeling from my sources is today’s fund sellers will cover on a $3 rally from here.

*The high in the August gold contract was $353 today. If it takes that point out, gold is going to FLY! That’s right at a key point at the top of the megaphone formation downtrend line.

Gold sold off after four up days in a row. As it reversed lower after an early charge, it could have been trashed by the crooks and other shorts, but that didn’t happen. A pleasant surprise and one which leads me to believe we have a big move coming to the upside in the days ahead.

The Café Sentiment Index Indicator remains very bullish, even after a $10 rally off recent lows.

Silver’s close yesterday was very suspicious. It dropped 3 cents RIGHT on the close as someone put in a 1,000 lot sell order to take the price down. The trade cleared through Bear Stearns.

Gold open interest only rose 569 contracts to 188,123 on yesterday’s scamper, while silver’s rose a hefty 2338 contracts. Almost all the increase was due to an EFP (exchange for physical).

If the Sep silver contract takes out $4.90, it will roar!
Silver:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.blick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=55083

[ThaiGuru]

@wavetrader

Sehen ja echt einladend aus die Gold und Silber Charts Charts in Euro!

Wegen den Leasinrates, werde sie weiter genau beobachten.
Deiner Feststellung, dass bei 310.- Euro pro Unze Gold nicht Schluss ist, kann ich mich überzeugt anschliessen.
Vielleicht holt sich Gold in Euro gerechnet schon bald die gelbe Linie?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

PS: Und bitte nicht vergessen, wenn`s nach Mahendra neuester Aussage geht, GOLD in the next 21 Days = 400.- US Dollars!

[ThaiGuru]

Auf das die Richtung heute nach oben zeigt!

[hpoth]

Hast Du falsch verstanden 12,% pro Jahr und das 8 Jhare
96% in acht Jahren das nach Stuern. hpoth

[silverpwd]

Axo, ok, damit kann man leben.

[derunsichtbarefreund]

hpoth

warum zahlst du speku-steuer

ist doch vor 2 wochen gekippt worden. siehe BFH XI B 16/03,
i.V. mit mit BVG Az; 2 Bvl 17/02. daraus ergibt sich auch folgende konsequenz; das finanzamt kann deine bank nicht verpflichten , auskünfte über gewinne preiszugeben. ( FG Münster Az; 11 V 6957/02.

ab und zu bringt auch eine steuerberaterwechsel mehr profit

besser für alle bescheide, die noch nicht bestandskräftig sind einspruch einlegen.

diese ansage war gebührenfrei

DUF

[hpoth]

Ich zahle keine Speku Steuer, habe Verluste gegen gerechnet in der 12 Monatsfrist, und habe immer noch einen
Batzen zu verrechnen aus dem Hi-Techschrott.mfg hpoth

[hpoth]

Speku-Steuer, ist kein Thema bei mir habe durch Hi-Techschrott genügend Verluste gegenzurechnen.Mein Ertrag ist ja wenn Du willst Steuerfrei und mit keiner speku-Ssteuer oder EKST zu belasten.mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Die 5.- Dollar beim Silber hätten wir gesehen!

[Magor]

und das ganz ohne Wardriver .. : - )))
sonst brauchten wir ihn doch immer als Kontraindikator : - ))

Jetzt dürfte Schwung reinkommen, morgen reiben die spätaufsteher ihre Augen ...
sagen mer mal, 10 % dürften sie zusätzlichen Schwung reinbringen beim schnell noch dabeisein wollen ...

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

Silber heutiger Schlusskurs !!!!! 5.06 Dollar !!!!!
Von 4.77 Dollar auf 5.06 Dollar gestiegen! 6.08% Anstieg gegenüber gestern, dass durften wir schon sehr, sehr lange nicht mehr erleben.

Das ist aber erst ein kleiner Vorgeschmack dessen, zu was Silber noch fähig ist. 1978/79 stand Silber auf 50.- Dollar pro Unze, nicht "nur" auf 5.06 Dollar.

Schaut`s Euch doch mal heute die prozentualen Anstiege bei den Silberminen an.

Da kommt Freude auf

Herzlichen Glückwunsch an alle Silber Bugs!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Wavetrader]

Silber war heute klar das Asset des Tages. Ich verweise auch noch mal auf den Eurochart in #6504. GD200 wurde förmlich "zerfetzt".

Übrigens: Neue Goldumfrage online: Thread: Gold: Sentiment-Umfrage 2003/07

[ThaiGuru]

Der Goldpreis kann sich heute ja auch sehen lassen!

Last trade 358.9 Change +6.7 (+1.90%)

Open 352.2 Previous Close 352.2

High 359.6 Low 350.5

Bid 358.4 Ask 358.9

Last tick: Jul 23 2003 1:51PM ET

0-min delayed quote.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=10&t=c&a=…

[hpoth]

@ Thai Guru,

Mit wardriver haben wir doch einen guten Kontraindikator gehabt, immer wenn der blödsinnige Komentra abgibt steig unser Gold.mfg hpoth

[Magor]

.
Mit schlappen 70 % Tagesgewinn kann sich der Silber-Call 574219 FSE heute übrigens auch sehen lassen ; - ))
.

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Die UBS Dinger laufen doch am 15. September 2003 ab, wenn ich mich recht erinnere.

Hoffe für Dich, dass Mahendra Recht behält mit seiner Vorhersage. Er sagt ja ab einem Silberpreis von 5.21 Dollar pro Unze Silber, steigt der Preis in 27 Tagen auf 6.- Dollar, und weiter auf 7.90 Dollar. Falls morgen am 24. July die 5.21 beim Silber erreicht sind, würde das ja dann bedeuten, dass Du 27 Tage später, bereits am 20. August 2003, Deinen Silber Call, happig im Gewinn verkaufen könntest. (Falls ich Mahendra richtig verstanden habe, und er auch Recht behält)

Würde dem Schein zum Schluss noch den richtigen Pep geben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

gebranntes Kind schleicht um´s Feuer Thai ...
war schon so einige Male ganz nahe dran gewesen, aber dann ...
Ich drücke all meine Daumen, daß Mahendras Prophezeihungen in Erfüllung gehen, ich glaube,
hier "on Board" sind so einige Daumen mit im Spiel ...
vielleicht hilft das ja diesmal ...

Danke Dir für Deine guten Wünsche,
Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

Heute ist Zahltag für Silber Bugs, aber auch für Gold Bugs, wie mann an diesem kleinen Querschnitt von empfehlenswerten Gold-, und Silberminen Aktienkursen sehen kann.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

COEUR D`ALENE (NYSE:CDE)
Last Trade
2:26pm · 1.70 Change
+0.18 (+11.84%) Prev Cls
1.52 Open
1.60 Volume
7,137,600

BEMA GOLD (AMEX:BGO)
Last Trade (neues 52 Wochen Hoch!!)
2:26pm · 1.58 Change
+0.11 (+7.48%) Prev Cls
1.47 Open
1.50 Volume
3,484,100

HECLA MINING CO (NYSE:HL)
Last Trade
2:25pm · 5.37 Change
+0.55 (+11.41%) Prev Cls
4.82 Open
4.94 Volume
2,232,400

SILVER STD RSC (NasdaqSC:SSRI)
Last Trade
2:29pm · 5.85 Change
+0.60 (+11.43%) Prev Cls
5.25 Open
5.44 Volume
578,504

FIRST SILVER (Toronto:FSR.TO)
Last Trade
1:37pm · 1.16 Change
+0.13 (+12.62%) Prev Cls
1.03 Open
1.14 Volume
43,000

STERLING MINING (Other OTC:SRLM.PK)
Last Trade
2:22pm · 0.96 Change
+0.11 (+12.94%) Prev Cls
0.85 Open
0.85 Volume
167,200

KINROSS GOLD (NYSE:KGC)
Last Trade
2:38pm · 6.54 Change
+0.30 (+4.81%) Prev Cls
6.24 Open
6.34 Volume
927,000

GOLDEN STAR RSCS (AMEX:GSS)
Last Trade
2:37pm · 2.99 Change
+0.20 (+7.17%) Prev Cls
2.79 Open
2.85 Volume
1,652,800

ROYAL GOLD (NasdaqNM:RGLD)
Last Trade
2:43pm · 22.07 Change
+1.47 (+7.14%) Prev Cls
20.60 Open
21.17 Volume
466,538

ELDORADO GOLD (Toronto:ELD.TO)
Last Trade
2:37pm · 2.89 Change
+0.12 (+4.33%) Prev Cls
2.77 Open
2.85 Volume
2,869,358

IAMGOLD CORP (Toronto:IMG.TO)
Last Trade
2:37pm · 7.35 Change
+0.40 (+5.76%) Prev Cls
6.95 Open
7.01 Volume
667,320


SAMEX MINING CO (OTC BB:SMXMF.OB)
Last Trade
2:19pm · 0.255 Change
+0.045 (+21.43%) Prev Cls
0.21 Open
0.22 Volume
218,800

PAN AMER SILV (NasdaqNM:PAAS)
Last Trade
2:30pm · 7.99 Change
+0.58 (+7.83%) Prev Cls
7.41 Open
7.78 Volume
1,754,013

RICHMONT MINES (AMEX:RIC)
Last Trade
2:06pm · 3.38 Change
+0.29 (+9.39%) Prev Cls
3.09 Open
3.13 Volume
153,400

CALEDONIA MINING (OTC BB:CALVF.OB)
Last Trade
2:24pm · 0.213 Change
+0.013 (+6.50%) Prev Cls
0.20 Open
0.20 Volume
1,530,400

GOLDCORP INC (NYSE:GG)
Last Trade
2:26pm · 12.21 Change
+0.69 (+5.99%) Prev Cls
11.52 Open
11.89 Volume
1,567,700

DURBAN DEEP (NasdaqSCROOY)
Last Trade
2:30pm · 2.48 Change
+0.13 (+5.53%) Prev Cls
2.35 Open
2.40 Volume
3,161,312

GOLD FIELDS LTD (NYSE:GFI)
Last Trade
2:26pm · 11.61 Change
+0.55 (+4.97%) Prev Cls
11.06 Open
11.30 Volume
1,995,700

HARMONY GOLD MNG (NYSE:HMY)
Last Trade
2:25pm · 12.10 Change
+0.75 (+6.61%) Prev Cls
11.35 Open
11.55 Volume
1,663,800

RANDGOLD RSCS (NasdaqNM:GOLD)
Last Trade
2:39pm · 18.72 Change
+1.27 (+7.28%) Prev Cls
17.45 Open
18.15 Volume
373,742

MACMIN SILVER ist vor dem starken Silberpreisanstieg von heute schon gestiegen!

Dürfte morgen früh in Australien ein Renner geben.
Wer schon drinn ist, O.K. wer noch nicht, sollte wohl sehr schnell kaufen.


MACMIN SILVER (ASX:MMN.AX) -
Last Trade
2:05am · 0.078 Change
+0.003 (+4.00%) Prev Cls
0.075 Open
0.079 Volume
168,669

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Nun ja der "Wardriver", der war doch öfters im Thread, bei ihm selbst, und auch einige Zeit in diesem hier.

Wer Ihn gut kennt, der versteht Ihn. Du hpoth hast Wardriver ja immer besonders gut verstanden
Darum bin ich überzeugt davon, dass er Dir den Gefallen machen wird, nochmals kurz im Gold Board zu erscheinen, und seine niederen Fähigkeiten nochmals unter Beweis stellen wird.

Dem Goldpreis würd`s sicher wieder gut tun!

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030723/235603_1.html

Press Release Source: GOLDCORP INC.

Goldcorp Declares Fourth Dividend Payment

Wednesday July 23, 1:34 pm ET

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 23, 2003--GOLDCORP INC. (NYSE:GG - News; TSX:G - News) is pleased to declare its fourth bi-monthly dividend payment for 2003 of $0.025 per share. Shareholders of record at the close of business on Tuesday, August 5, 2003 will be entitled to receive payment of this dividend on Wednesday, August 13, 2003. This brings the total dividend payment for the year to $0.10 per share. Goldcorp intends to pay a total of $0.15 per share during 2003 in six equal bi-monthly installments of $0.025 per share.

Goldcorp`s Red Lake Mine is the richest gold mine in the world. The Company is in excellent financial condition: has NO DEBT, a Large Treasury and Strong Cash Flow and Earnings. GOLDCORP is completely UNHEDGED and pays a dividend six times a year. Goldcorp`s shares are listed on the New York and Toronto Stock Exchanges under the trading symbols of GG and G, respectively and its options trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Pacific Stock Exchange (PCX) in the United States and on the Montreal Exchange (MX) in Canada.

Gold is better than Money, Goldcorp is Gold!



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
GOLDCORP INC.
Chris Bradbrook, 416-865-0326
Fax: [phone]
[e-mail]
www.goldcorp.com



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: GOLDCORP INC.

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030723/sfw036_1.html

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur d`Alene Mines Reports First San Bartolome Silver Reserves And New Thick, High-Grade Gold Veins Intercepted at Cerro Bayo Mine

Wednesday July 23, 8:46 am ET

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho, July 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE - News), the world`s largest primary silver producer and a growing gold producer, announced today that silver resources at the Company`s San Bartolome mining project in Bolivia have been converted to proven and probable reserves totaling 126 million ounces, which represent a 164 percent growth in company-wide silver reserves.
In addition, exploration drilling at the Company`s Cerro Bayo property in southern Chile has intersected a major new mineralized zone near the underground workings that contains 27 feet of 0.77 gold equivalent ounces per ton.

San Bartolome Reserves:

San Bartolome is an advanced stage development project with reserves contained in silver-bearing gravel deposits that can be hauled directly to processing facilities. The new reserves measure 35.3 million tons containing 3.58 ounces of silver per ton. The deposits are located near Potosi, Bolivia, in a region with historical silver production of over two billion ounces.

The completion of the ore reserves, in conjunction with the updated feasibility study underway, allows the company to proceed with the final mine plan and construction cost estimates. Assuming a construction decision by early 2004, the project could be in operation in 2005 after an 18-month construction period. Anticipated silver production at San Bartolome would average almost six million ounces a year for at least ten years. In addition, Coeur has established that tin can be commercially recovered on two of the deposits, which will also significantly add to project economics.

"The completion of the San Bartolome proven and probable ore reserves is a major milestone in the development of the mine," said Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "The addition of these reserves further solidifies Coeur`s position as the preeminent silver company. Once in production, San Bartolome would increase Coeur`s total silver output by 40 percent, further building on our position as the world`s largest primary silver producer."

Major New Drill Results at Cerro Bayo

The major new high-grade zone at Cerro Bayo is located 600 feet west of existing underground infrastructure of the Cerro Bayo mine. The mineralized zone is composed of two high grade veins containing 5.7 feet of 0.97 gold equivalent ounces per ton, and 7.7 feet of 1.33 gold equivalent ounces per ton.

"The discovery of this new very high-grade zone is significant because unlike other veins nearby there was no surface visibility," said Mr. Wheeler. "Also, the discovery was based on our new geologic model at the mine, which demonstrates our ability to find new high-grade zones through the application of that model."

There are now 15 mineralized veins known to exist in the central Cerro Bayo area. Known veins yet to be explored in the central Cerro Bayo area alone total more than eight miles in total length. Coeur controls a total of over 108 square miles in the Cerro Bayo property.

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation is the world`s largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Contact: Tony Ebersole, Investor Relations
Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation
208-665-0335


Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce. We use the term "resources" in this press release which the SEC guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2003. You can review and obtain copies of that filing from the SEC website at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.html .

This document contains numerous forward-looking statements relating to the Company`s silver and gold mining business. The United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. Operating, exploration and financial data, and other statements in this document are based on information the company believes reasonable, but involve significant uncertainties as to future gold and silver prices, costs, ore grades, estimation of gold and silver reserves, mining and processing conditions, changes that could result from the Company`s future acquisition of new mining properties or businesses, the risks and hazards inherent in the mining business (including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, weather or geologically related conditions), regulatory and permitting matters, and risks inherent in the ownership and operation of, or investment in, mining properties or businesses in foreign countries. Actual results and timetables could vary significantly from the estimates presented. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

CONTACT: Tony Ebersole, Investor Relations of Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation, [phone].




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

[silvo]

Thai!

Vielen, Dank für deine Empfehlungen!



Auch für deine Aufforderungen zum Durchhalten!



Bin seit einiger Zeit voll in Silber-Calls investiert!


heute ist der "Beste Tag" meiner Börsenlaufbahn. Nochmals Danke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030723/0818001006_1.html

Dow Jones Business News

S African Miners` Union Rejects Wage Offer; Set To Strike

Wednesday July 23, 8:18 am ET

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- Workers at South Africa`s biggest gold-mining firms are Wednesday preparing for strike action Sunday after last night rejecting a wage-rise offer as being too low.

National Union of Mineworkers spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana said the NUM is preparing to issue to mining firms AngloGold Ltd. , Gold Fields Ltd. and Harmony Gold Mining Co. notices of a walkout from the start of the Sunday night shift.

Lekorotsoana said only a 10% wage-rise offer could prevent the industry`s first all-out strike since 1987.

"Based on the progress we`ve made this morning, which is none, the strike is definitely going ahead," said Lekorotsoana.

The union and the Chamber of Mines industry group began wage negotiations in May when the NUM`s call for a 20% pay hike was rejected as unrealistic. Mining groups then offered an 8.75% increase but subsequently raised this to an average of 9.0%.

AngloGold, South Africa`s second-biggest producer, was the first company to raise its offer to between 9.5% and 10%, followed by South Deep, which increased its offer to between 9.0% and 9.5%. However, only South Deep`s offer was accepted.

Harmony, now the country`s number-one producer after its merger with junior gold producer ARMGold, and Gold Fields both raised their offers to 9.0% but this was rejected.

Gold producers argue that as wages account for around half their total costs, a 10% wage hike would equate to a 5.0% drop in earnings at a time when company profits are being slashed because of the strengthening rand.

The NUM has dismissed this argument.

"It`s a lame excuse. Most of the producers have set the benchmark at 9.5%. They`ve just got to get over the bridge to 10%," said the NUM`s Lekorotsoana.

Officials at the Chamber of Mines, who are conducting negotiations on behalf of Gold Fields and Harmony, weren`t immediately available to comment on the wage talks.

At 1200 GMT, AngloGold shares were up 1.5% at ZAR243.50 in Johannesburg, with Harmony unchanged at ZAR87.75 and Gold Fields down 0.2% at ZAR85.50. Spot gold is trading up $3.40 at $354.154, while the rand is trading around ZAR7.5488.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone]; [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...

by Jon Warner

July 23, 2003 (usagold.com)

NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $358.70 an ounce, up $8.20 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold broke higher to the upside on fresh Fund buying and speculator interest as the U.S. dollar plunged. The buying began overnight on the spot market and never looked back as buyers searched for areas to diversify out of the dollar. "The spot (gold) market was firmer this morning; a strong euro and strong fund buying. That`s also the case in silver. The currencies against the dollar were strong and that`s what`s prompting the buying in here," said Jimmy Quinn, commodities market analyst at AG Edwards. "Gold is making a major advance on anticipation that the economy may turn and on anticipation that the equity markets may advance further on the news that Saddam`s sons were killed," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. With a steadily growing economic growth outlook, potential inflationary pressures are emerging, Person said. And in the longer term, a stronger economy "may offer investors a sound reason for holding gold as a potential inflationary hedge if the economy over accelerates in hyper drive," he said.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $354.75 an ounce, up from $352.20 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold gained interest from buyers as the U.S. dollar broke lower and a surge in physical demand was seen. "Gold is still rising on the back of the euro -- I`d like to see a concerted push through $355 to keep it propped up here. If we do that we should see the price push on," one trader said. "We expect that the dollar will continue to drive the metal in the near term and we continue to believe that medium term dollar weakness and recovering jewellery demand will help gold trade higher," said John Reade of UBS Warburg in a daily report. "We would expect demand to remain reasonable and more currency volatility to continue to be supportive for gold," said Switzerland-based analyst Frederic Panizzutti of GoldAvenue. "Gold is looking pretty firm today, inline with a firmer euro," said analyst Ingrid Sternby at Barclays Capital. "There appears to be robust physical demand and that is providing a floor under the market. There is good demand due to the Indian wedding season, so prices are well supported at present," she said. Silver followed gold higher as well. Silver was "defying its industrial status in the light of the falling equity markets yesterday," and brushing aside resistance at 4.80 usd/oz, according to Sternby at Barclays Capital. "We had option-related buying this morning which pushed prices higher, and then buy-stops were triggered, driving prices higher still," she said, in reference to automatically-triggered buy transactions.

The recent attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and the killing of two of Saddam`s sons "has helped to widen traders` focus again, combating some of the tunnel vision caused by currency tracking over the past few weeks," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London. The events have also raised "the specter of terrorism and the economic uncertainties faced globally," he said. Even so, the currencies will continue to play a role in gold`s short-term direction, he said.

Traders were also watching developments in South Africa, where mine workers there were threatening to include the world`s second-biggest gold producer, AngloGold, in a planned strike against gold firms. Employers expressed dismay on Tuesday after mine workers rejected an increased wage offer by AngloGold ahead of a strike set for July 27, although some traders played down the development. Analysts said that the impact of the threatened action, though bullish for the price, was limited as gold was moving on a number of factors. "As far as gold is concerned, I think the effect is pretty limited. The gold price is driven by a lot of things, of which mine production is one of the less important," said Societe Generale economist Stephen Briggs. "To make a material impact you would have to be seeing not only a strike, but a lengthy strike," he added.

According to analysts, the dollar failed to benefit as the backup in US bond yields and the lack of a solid rebound on Wall St, despite good first quarter earnings results, has dampened enthusiasm somewhat. "Thus, a more cautious tone is leaving traders hesitant about bidding the dollar higher," said Geraldine Conacagh, senior economist at AIB Treasury. ``The earnings season hasn`t set the world alight,`` and that`s hurt the dollar, said Ian Gunner, head of foreign-exchange research at Mellon Bank in London. ``People are more circumspect about the U.S. economic outlook.`` Even so, he doesn`t expect the euro to rise much further unless it breaches $1.14 today. ``If you were looking at areas of potential, you`d have to look at Europe, even though it`s coming from a low ebb,`` said Steve Grosman, head of currency trading at Travelex Group in Peterborough, U.K, the world`s No. 1 operator of airport currency exchange centers. Travelex had the best accuracy record for predicting the euro-dollar rate for the nine quarters ended March 31, according to Bloomberg data. Grosman expects the euro to advance to about $1.25 by the end of the year.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold fell 10 cents in Hong Kong to US$352.65. Gold traded higher against a weaker U.S. dollar amid speculation of more currency intervention and rising geopolitical tensions with North Korea. Traders said gold was drawing strength from brewing tensions over North Korea`s ambitions to become a member of the nuclear club. "We had some bullish incentives the other day -- but those factors turned the other way around yesterday in New York," said Gordon Cheung, director of precious metals trading at Mitsui Bussan in Hong Kong. "This morning we came back here with a little bit of mixed interest around $351, but the market remains very quiet here," he said. News that South African mine workers were threatening to include the world`s second-biggest gold producer, AngloGold, in a planned strike against gold firms also supported bullion. Employers expressed dismay on Tuesday after mine workers rejected an increased wage offer by AngloGold ahead of a strike set for July 27, although some traders played down the development. "I don`t think that`s having too much of an impact on the gold market -- the output is still consistent," Cheung said.

India, the world`s top gold consumer, is likely to see imports rise nearly 30 percent in October-December over the previous quarter, thanks to a good monsoon, festivals and the start of the wedding season, traders said on Wednesday. "I expect gold imports to surge to around 175 tonnes in the October-December quarter because of a combination of factors, if prices are in the range of $340-$350 an ounce," said Nayan Pansare, a Bombay-based bullion trader. If the monsoon continued to be good, rural incomes would improve, which would lead to an increase in gold purchases, traders said. The wedding season from October would add to the buying, Pansare said. The annual monsoon, which runs from June to September, has progressed well so far and covered the entire country. The weather office has forecast the monsoon will be normal and evenly distributed. "The rural people will keep buying because it gives them better liquidity during distress situations," said a bullion trader. The festival season, which peaks in October with Diwali, the festival of lights, also fuels demand for jewellery. "If the last three or four years is an indication, world prices should remain steady at $330-$340 levels after August," said Ranjit Rathod, a bullion trader based in the southern city of Madras. "We should see a demand spurt in the October-December quarter when total imports could be between 175 tonnes and 200 tonnes," said Rathod.

The U.S. dollar eased versus the yen as a rise in Japanese shares boosted yen-buying, coming on top of purchases by Japanese exporters who need to convert dollars to yen. "Investors are more interested in economic fundamentals than geopolitical issues," said Toru Sasaki, chief forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase Tokyo branch. "The dollar was bought just after the (Iraq) news but it was pretty short-lived," he said. "It seems like Japanese exports to Asia and to the United States are doing well, so there is dollar-selling pressure," said Satoshi Tokuda, forex manager at Sumitomo Corp. While the dollar is seen capped around 120 yen, dealers said it was unlikely to fall much beyond 118 yen as the Japanese government is seen determined to block the yen`s export-damaging rise. Japan has already sold over seven trillion yen ($58.80 billion) in the currency market so far this year. "I think the market has already priced in a U.S. recovery of three to four percent in the second half of this year," said Satoshi Tokuda, forex manager at Sumitomo Corp. "So unless we expect faster or longer growth, it`s difficult to buy the dollar more," he said. ``The pace of the recovery is not fast enough to boost the dollar,`` said Junya Tanase, a Tokyo-based foreign-exchange strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the fourth-largest trader in the $1.2 trillion a day currency market, according to Euromoney magazine. ``We need to see stronger growth and earnings.`` The U.S. currency may weaken to $1.16 per euro in the coming months, he said.

Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said in post-Asian trade that intervention was not necessarily the best use of Japan`s resources. He had been asked about the over seven trillion yen ($58.80 billion) spent by Japan this year to stem the yen`s rise. "When they turn around and lend all that right back to the United States and at extraordinarily low interest rates it doesn`t necessarily seem like the best use of the country`s resources," Dodge said.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Two American soldiers were killed in ambushes in Iraq Wednesday, dashing any U.S. hopes that the killing of Saddam Hussein`s sons, Uday and Qusay, would snuff out a guerrilla insurgency against occupying forces. A U.S. military spokesman said one soldier was killed and six wounded when their vehicle hit a mine or home-made bomb in the northern town of Mosul, where the brothers were killed in a six-hour gun battle with about 200 U.S. troops Tuesday. In a separate ambush, another soldier was killed and two wounded when their convoy was attacked near the town of Ramadi, west of Baghdad, in the heart of the "Sunni triangle" from where Saddam drew much of his support. U.S. officials had said they feared an upsurge in attacks as diehard Saddam loyalists sought to avenge his sons.

North Korea could declare itself an atomic power soon if the United States does not respond to its proposals for ending a nuclear controversy, diplomatic sources in Tokyo said amid increasing shadow-boxing ahead of likely talks. The United States said Tuesday it was considering fresh talks with Communist North Korea and China on Pyongyang`s nuclear weapons ambitions if they were followed by broader discussions with Japan and South Korea.

Iran`s intelligence minister said on Wednesday Tehran was holding many al Qaeda members, including some senior figures from Osama bin Laden`s network. "Since the collapse of the Taliban regime we have arrested a large number of them (al Qaeda members)," Ali Yunesi told reporters after a weekly cabinet meeting. "Many of them have been expelled and a large number of them are in our custody -- a mixture of big and small members." It was the first public admission by a top government official that Iran is holding some key members of al Qaeda, the group Washington holds responsible for the September 11, 2001 hijacked plane attacks on U.S. cities. Kuwait`s Interior Minister Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah earlier this month said Kuwait had turned down an offer from Tehran to hand over al Qaeda spokesman Sulaiman Abu Ghaith. Media reports and intelligence sources have also said Iran is believed to be holding al Qaeda`s number two, Ayman al-Zawahri, and its security chief Saif al-Adel.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank would be prepared to cut interest rates all the way to zero if necessary to prevent a fall in inflation. Speaking to a university audience, Bernanke said if the Fed were to reduce overnight borrowing costs to zero, it would look at so-called nontraditional methods of trying to spur growth such as buying long-term bonds. He expressed confidence those methods would work if the Fed needed to turn to them. But policymakers still appear focused on using their central tool of controlling short-term interest rates for now. "Monetary ease appears to be indicated for a considerable period," Bernanke said. "Keeping the federal funds target at or near its current level may be sufficient. Alternatively, as Chairman (Alan) Greenspan testified last week, we could certainly cut the rate from where it is now," Bernanke told the Economics Roundtable of the University of California at San Diego. He said he was well aware that reducing short-term interest rates closer to zero would carry some cost, including reducing interest income for savers and eroding profits in money markets. But he said "we should be willing to cut the funds rate to zero, should that prove necessary to provide the required support to the economy". He made clear that preventing a further slowing in inflation -- or outright deflation in which widespread price declines set in -- must be a priority for Fed policymakers. "I hope we can agree that a substantial fall in inflation at this stage has the potential to interfere with the ongoing U.S. recovery," Bernanke said.

Applications for home loans fell 5.4 percent last week to the lowest level since early May, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America said on Wednesday. The housing and mortgage sectors have been crucial props for the economy for over two years. By some estimates, about half the growth in the economy for the last year has come from housing and home loans. But with rates rising, housing will likely slow, economists said. That slowing was already evident in applications to refinance homes, which fell 7.2 percent last week. "We`re very close to the end of the refinancing boom," said Kurt Karl, chief economist for North America at Swiss Re in New York. Rates may decline a bit sometime before the end of the quarter before heading higher again, he added.

The ABC News/Money Magazine weekly Consumer Comfort index was stagnant at -21 in the week ended July 20. Its Michigan counterpart rose to 90.3 in early July from 89.7 in June. In the ABC/Money survey, the percentage of respondents who rated the current state of the economy positively crawled up 1 percentage point to 28 percent. The poll`s buying climate gauge, which measures respondents` willingness to spend, was up 2 percentage points, reaching a new high for the year of 39 percent.

Fifty-two percent of respondents rated their personal finances as excellent or good, down 2 percentage points from the prior week and matching a low for the year.


Comment:

Gold punched higher as Funds and speculators entered the market as the U.S. dollar plunged in the last 24 hours on concerns over economic recovery and dismal corporate earnings reports (at least falling short of Wall Street’s “whisper numbers”). Gold surged higher as it rocketed through resistance levels that triggered stop-loss buy orders. The new surge in gold buying appears to be that investors are now looking at areas of diversification on an ailing dollar. Today Federal Reserve governor Ben S. Bernanke told the Economics Roundtable of the University of California at San Diego that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to zero if necessary to fend off the ravages of inflation. Adding fuel to the fire, he further stated that the Fed would look at so-called nontraditional methods of trying to spur growth such as buying long-term bonds if necessary. Another factor driving the price of precious metals and the sinking dollar is the recent “world tour” of U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow. Yesterday Sec. Snow reiterated his support for the “strong dollar policy” but qualifying his statement that the market should set the value of the U.S. dollar. On the surface this looks somewhat benign but obviously a trip abroad is not necessary to make such tame statements so one must “read between the lines”. It is obvious to even the most inept currency traders that something is amiss and that the U.S. administration is obviously concerned about the gross overvaluation of the U.S. dollar against major currencies.

Another issue that has received little press lately is the growing threat of geopolitical instability. The killing of Saddam Hussein’s two sons and grandson yesterday has not diminished the attacks on U.S. occupation forces in Iraq. Two U.S. soldiers were killed and several more wounded in fresh attacks. Meanwhile North Korea continues to ramp up the nuclear weapons rhetoric and threats against its neighbors although it is highly unlikely they have nuclear weapons. Other hotspots around the globe could heat up at anytime and the threat of terrorism is an ever present danger as well.

Gold continued to build up a head of steam after analysts realized that interest in precious metals investment and physical demand for precious metals was rising. Even as some analysts expect gold producers to reduce their dehedging activities in coming months, physical demand remains quite robust even during the traditionally slack summer months.

Adding to today’s run up in gold prices is the rising physical demand ahead of India`s wedding season, with imports likely to rise nearly 30 percent in October-December over the previous quarter. The recent arrival of the monsoons in central Asia also give hope that this year will yield good harvests and rural investors will be aggressive buyers of precious metals.

Western fabricators will also be buying to prepare for the holiday season. On top of all else, the National Union of Miners (NUM) in South Africa appear ready to go on strike this Sunday after rejecting wage proposals from the mines. All in all, the precious metals sector looks to rise on further dollar weakness and many will keep an eye on rising physical demand.


- Jon H. Warner -


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

@silvo

Es freut mich für Dich, und alle andern Gold und Silber Investoren, die investiert geblieben sind, und jetzt profitieren können!

Es war ja auch nicht gerade immer einfach, die Ueberzeugung an eine "goldene", und "silberne" Zukunft zu behalten.

Durch die vielfälltigen negativen Aussagen zu den Edelmetallen, von verschiedensten Usern im WGold Board, und noch weit mehr in der Etablierten Presse, war wohl mancher Leser an seine Schmerzgrenze gelangt, mit seinem Warten auf Erfolg von Gold und Silber. Vor allem diese häufigen Gold-, und Silberpreis Manipulationen des Gold, und Silber Kartells, machten auch mir selbst manchen Strich durch die Rechnung.

Nur hoffe ich, dass Du selbst, und die vielen Leser im Thread nicht glauben, dass man jetzt auch nur schon ein Gramm Gold, oder Silber verkaufen müsste. Es ist noch lange nicht Zeit dafür. Im Gegenteil, physisches Gold, und Silber, sollte man jetzt kaufen, falls es nicht schon lange erledigt wurde. Auch die meiner Ansicht nach noch immer sehr günstigen Chacen die die Gold und Silber Minen als Anlage bieten, sollte man weiter nutzen.

Es ist erst der kleine Beginn einer neuen Entwicklung beim Gold, und Silberpreis.

Gruss und Dank auch an Dich Silvo

ThaiGuru

PS:

Wer jetzt einsteigen will sollte immer kurzfristige Preisrückschläge mit einkalkulieren!

Gold und Silber werden aber aus mittlerer, und noch mehr langfristiger Sicht, noch ganz andere, weit höhere Preise erreichen, auch wenn, oder gerade darum, weil es die meisten Leser im Board eigentlich noch nicht so Recht glauben können.

[Wavetrader]

Gold nachbörslich sogar über 360$.

[erdede]

warten wir`s ab Thai Guru


nie den Morgen vor dem Abend loben


erdede

[ThaiGuru]

Wie vermutet heute morgen in Australien, der Renner !!!

MACMIN SILVER (ASX:MMN.AX)
Last Trade
10:03pm · 0.094 Change
+0.016 (+20.51%) Prev Cls
0.078 Open
0.085 Volume
3,430,492

[ThaiGuru]

Und sie steigt, und steigt, und steigt!!!!

MACMIN SILVER (ASX:MMN.AX) - Trade: Choose Brokerage
Last Trade
1:19am · 0.10 Change
+0.022 (+28.21%) Prev Cls
0.078 Open
0.085 Volume
4,636,890

[ThaiGuru]

Strong buy!!!!!



http://www.moneysense.ca/news/shownews.jsp?content=20030723_…

BUSINESS NEWS July 24, 2003

Canada`s Goldcorp second-quarter profit rises

2003-07-23 22:48:56 EST

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, July 23 (Reuters) - Canadian mid-tier gold producer, Goldcorp Inc. , on Wednesday reported a rise in second-quarter earnings on higher realized gold prices and a lower income tax provision.

Goldcorp reported a net income of US$17.8 million or 10 cents a share, compared with a net income of US$15.2 million or 9 cents a share for the same period a year earlier.

Nine analysts polled by Thomson First Call had forecast the Toronto-headquartered producer would post earnings in a range of 8-12 cents, with a mean of 10 cents.

Goldcorp pulled in revenues of US$48.8 million for the quarter, compared with revenues of US$48.2 million for the year earlier period.

The realized gold price during the quarter was US$352 per ounce, US$5 higher than the average for the period.

Goldcorp, whose Red Lake mine accounts for about 90 percent of its gold output, said the company produced 149,354 ounces of gold in the June quarter, up from the 149,015 ounces of output in last year`s comparable period. Red Lake produced 129,860 ounces of gold.

Cash costs in the quarter were US$100 per ounce compared to June 2002`s US$86. Cash costs at Red Lake, which borders Placer Dome Inc`s Campbell Mine, were US$73 per ounce, putting it in the league of low-cost producers of gold.

However, the company said production costs at Red Lake increased in the second quarter because of the stronger Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, higher development costs and increased labor costs.

Goldcorp increased its gold production forecast for Red Lake to 530,000 ounces from 510,000 ounces because of increased production from concentrates.

An outspoken critic of gold hedging, Goldcorp is hedge-free and instead buys gold bullion as an investment. Its bullion inventory stood at 245,224 ounces or 7.6 tonnes at end-June, growing from the 7 tonnes or 224,000 ounces it held at the end of March.

Goldcorp intends to pay a total dividend of US$0.15 per share during 2003 in equal bi-monthly installments. It has already made three payments of 2.5 cents so far this year and declared a fourth today.

Goldcorp shares closed up 86 Canadian cents at C$17.18 on Wednesday on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

[ThaiGuru]

http://62.146.24.165/news.php?show=127372

23.07. 21:59
Goldindex ($XAU) - Nächster Anlauf!
(©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)

Gold and Silver Sektor Index ($XAU)

Kursstand : +4,91% auf 81,12 Punkte

Nachdem in den letzten Wochen ein Ausbruchversuch aus dem großen mittelfristigen symmetrischen Dreieck mißlungen war, zieht der $XAU in dieser Woche wieder stark an und ist derzeit wieder oberhalb der Dreiecksoberkante.

Die neue maßgebliche BUY Triggermarke liegt bei 82,69 Punkten. Kann der Index über diese Triggermarke ausbrechen, dürfte sich eine kurz- bis mittelfristige Ausbruchbewegung ausbilden können mit charttechnischen Kurszielen über 100 Punkten.

[hpoth]

@ThaiGuru,
Mit weitern Anstieg im Gold und Silber ect. rechne ich auch, wir sind erst am Anfang, natürlich kommen Korekturen die sind aber auch gesund am Markt, man sollte Rückschläge nutzten zum Zukauf und nicht die Flinte ins Korn werfen.
Wie Du ja auch richtig sagtst es wird eine neue Bewegung geben.Gruß hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Diese Meldung sollte eigentlich alle BEMA Gold Aktien Besitzer freuen!

Neues Preis Ziel = 2.50 US Dollar pro Aktie!!

Und noch was, bitte nicht gleich wieder alle Bema Gold bei erreichen des neuen Preisziel von "New Ratings" bei 2.50$ verkaufen. (Die BEMA Gold *Produziert übrigens auch Silber!) Mein persönliches Preis Ziel von BEMA Gold, sehe ich mit 2.50 Dollar, mittel-, und langfistig bei weitem noch nicht erreicht!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.newratings.com/new2/beta/article.asp?aid=314964

Bema Gold "buy," target price raised - update

Updated Wednesday, July 23, 2003 12:20:42 PM ET

Canaccord Capital

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">NEW YORK, July 23 (New Ratings) - Analysts at Canaccord Capital issue a "buy" rating on Bema Gold Corp (BGO). The target price has been raised from $1.85 to $2.50.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company’s Juliette and Kupol projects are expected to contribute significantly to revenues. According to the analysts, the Juliette and the Kupol mines are estimated to have 116,000 ounces and 3.5 million ounces of resources, respectively. The analysts forecast that the Kupol project in Russia could yield 5-7 million ounces of resources with additional mining work.

© 2003 New Ratings

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.aktiencheck.de/analysen/default_an.asp?sub=4&page…

23.07.2003

Meridian Gold haltenswert

Der Aktionär

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Die Experten von "Der Aktionär" empfehlen bei der Aktie von Meridian Gold (ISIN CA5899751013/ WKN 902257) dabeizubleiben.

Wie fast alle Goldwerte habe auch Meridian Gold in der letzten Woche unter der Rede von Greenspan gelitten. Greenspan habe versichert, dass er derzeit keine Inflationsgefahr erkennen würde. Gold - das klassische Schutzmittel vor Inflation - habe infolge dessen neun Dollar je Unze eingebüßt, habe sich jedoch zum Wochenschluss wieder erholen können.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Nach Ansicht der Experten von "Der Aktionär" ist die Aktie von Meridian Gold auf alle Fälle haltenswert. Das Kursziel sehe man bei 18,00 Euro.

Weitere Analysen zur ISIN CA5899751013
16.07.2003 Meridian Gold aussichtsreich Der Aktionär
http://www.aktiencheck.de/analysen/default_an.asp?sub=4&page…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-2285915.…

Goldpreis & Euro/Dollar wieder im Gleichlauf

Mit einem gleichzeitig schwächer notierenden Dollar kann auch Gold seine Konsolidierung der vergangenen Wochen beenden. Das goldene Metall verteuert sich je Feinunze um $6.70 auf $357.20. Ende Mai bildete der Goldpreis bei über $370 ein Zwischenhoch aus und fiel seither. Innerhalb einer Woche stieg der Goldpreis um 4.4% an. Gleichzeitig steigt der Euro zum Dollar um 1.4% auf $1.1481. Belastend für die US-Währung wirkt die jüngste Schwäche an den Anleihenmärkten und Zweifel an der erwarteten Konjunkturerholung im zweiten Halbjahr.

© BörseGo

[ThaiGuru]

Strong Buy!!!



http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

http://www2.cdn-news.com/images/logos/riv.jpg

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews

RIVER GOLD MINES LTD.

TSX SYMBOL: RIV

JULY 23, 2003 - 17:39 ET

River Gold Mines Ltd.: Press Release

TORONTO, ONTARIO--A severe electrical storm on Sunday, July 20 destroyed two key transformers servicing the Eagle River mine and mill. It also damaged the power transmission line servicing the complex. Replacement and repairs are expected to be complete in about ten days.

The cost of repairing these electrical facilities is estimated at about $400,000, a sum, which we think, is covered by insurance. However, the shutdown will not be extensive enough to trigger business interruption insurance.

Operationally, River Gold had a strong second quarter with production of about 22,400 ounces sold for a realized average price of about Cdn$483 per ounce. Costs eased and we expect to post a profit when the second quarter financials are finalized and released in late August.

Today the CDN$ price edged back up through $500.

We continue to expect to meet our production forecast for this year of 75,000 ounces and exploration and development in the second half of this year will be aggressive.

River Gold Mines Ltd. trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "RIV". There are currently 41.3 million shares issued and outstanding.

-30-

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

River Gold Mines Ltd.
Murray H. Pollitt, P. Eng.
President
[phone]
[phone] (FAX)

[ThaiGuru]

GATA scheint im Moment noch Probleme mit ihrem Server zu haben. Versuche die News später in Erfahrung zu bringen, und sie danach hier zu posten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

July 23 - Gold $358.70 up $8.20 - Silver $5.06 up 29 cents

Gold, Silver, And The Shares Rocket Sharply Higher!!!

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don`t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don`t give way to hating,
And yet don`t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream -- and not make dreams your master;
If you can think -- and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you`ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build `em up with worn-out tools;

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings -- nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds` worth of distance run --
Yours is the Earth and everything that`s in it,
And -- which is more -- you`ll be a Man, my son!

----- Rudyard Kipling

For the past couple of weeks, MIDAS has been pounding the table on two basic themes:


*Gold is EXPLOSIVE" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">*The gold fundamentals are a "10+"

*Gold is EXPLOSIVE

Price Action Makes Market Commentary and also influences our perceptions. That is only natural. However, to seriously capitalize on market opportunities it is critically important to grasp what is going on in a market BEFORE the price moves. It is only after a big price movement that the average investor gets tidbits of why the market has gone in a certain direction. It’s because most market commentators look for reasons to justify the price movement.

Gold`s fundamentals have changed very little in the past week. Yes, the dollar (95.60, down 1.07) was battered today, but gold turned up first last week. The dollar is actually following gold’s direction. More importantly, movement in the dollar has an insignificant impact on the price of silver. Anyone who has traded silver for many years knows that is so. And look what silver did today.

Something bigger is at play here than just the weakening of the dollar. Today’s surge in both gold and silver is HUGE! On a combined basis, the sharply higher move up in gold and silver gives us one of the grandest precious metals days in YEARS! More importantly, it is a glaring signal The Gold Cartel crooks are losing control of their scam. Other recent signs the cabal is in trouble:

*The recent and unusually bubbly silver action, even before today’s dramatic rise
*The consistent firming action of the gold shares. Clearly, share sell-offs have been viewed by more and more investors as buying opportunities. In general, the shares have been leading bullion. The HUI broke into multi-year new high ground today.
*US long bond rates have soared while our short-term rates remain near historic lows
*Both gold and silver rising sharply on the same day
*Gold shaking off the yoke of its $6+rule (The Gold Cartel has limited gold`s big "up days" to moves of $6+ for almost 5 years to minimize budding gold excitement). Gold was trading $6+ until the close when it put in the extra nudge. That successful nudge suggests the cabal punch is losing its power.

The key to the gold price is the demise of those who have committed one of the biggest market frauds in history: the corrupt ones in the cabal. When they go down, the gold price will SOAR. No ifs, ands, and buts on that one. Based on the signs we are receiving from various markets, that day is not far off. One (sign) by one, we can see The Gold Cartel is gradually losing control.

The other key ingredient for the collapse of The Gold Cartel is the strength of the physical market. A surging cash market means the crooks have to come up with more and more physical supply to keep the price from rising. There has been no let up in gold demand for months and it is eating the cabal’s lunch. Just today I received a call from a VERY well connected Café member who knows this bigwig in India. He was told (unsolicited) gold demand in India is far greater than what is reported, that the Indians know what is in store for the price of gold.

The gold and silver prices are going to move far higher in the months to come than most anyone in the investment world can conceive. Café members have been given the breakdown/background and reasoning of what is coming and why. ENJOY!

Gold came in $4 higher this morning. When can you recall an opening like that! Once it took out $353, that was all she wrote.

Here is a surprise. Gold’s open interest rose 4725 contracts yesterday to 192,846. Some smart buyers were moving in while those funds I mentioned were selling.

Gold’s bullish megaphone formation has proved to be just that so far. Gold has now blown through the upper downtrend line. In addition, it turned up sharply out of a tight rounded saucer bottom.

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

The Café Sentiment Indicator scores again. Each time I have brought to your attention it was screaming "a bullish signal," gold has soared soon thereafter.

The silver move was nothing less than sensational. Been a long time coming. Among the biggest moves in many years. While 29 cents is a monster day, the silver fundamentals are so bullish, we should get $1 up days in the months ahead. As that may have been hard to imagine just days ago, it`s not so hard now. MIDAS brought this coming event to your attention some time back.

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

Somebody has built up a significant position in December $7 2003 silver calls on the Comex:

$5 STRIKE-6548 calls
$6-STRIKE-6902 calls
$7-STRIKE-6090 calls

My kind of silver bull!

A savvy member notes:

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"FROM THE SIZE AND THE WAY THE POSITION IS STAGGERED--$5-$6-$7--IT DEFINITELY IS BIG MONEY AND DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A PURE LONG PLAY--NOT PART OF A CALENDAR SPREAD"

I am sure of one thing. Like gold, silver has been manipulated for years. The only difference is GATA has no clue how the perpetrators have done it. Today`s surge suggests the silver rigging game is coming to an end. Perhaps it`s the Chinese silver supply drying up that`s doing the bad guys in? You might recall MIDAS brought that data from "the horse`s mouth" to your attention a short time ago.

Silver has huffed and puffed for years in attempts to blow through $5. Mission accomplished. No telling how high it can go, but $7 seems like a reasonable first stop objective.

A potential event to keep in the back of your mind:

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- Workers at South Africa`s biggest gold-mining firms are Wednesday preparing for strike action Sunday after last night rejecting a wage-rise offer as being too low.

National Union of Mineworkers spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana said the NUM is preparing to issue to mining firms AngloGold Ltd. , Gold Fields Ltd. and Harmony Gold Mining Co. notices of a walkout from the start of the Sunday night shift.

–END-

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

From John Brimelow

July 23, 2003

Still in S. Carolina

Significant Bridgewater comment

(On the Monday stock/bond market action)

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Today’s market action was unique in that there has not been a single day since May 1999 – that is, back when stocks and bonds were positively correlated – in which bonds and stocks sold off so much together….it is now being recognized that big deficits and increased growth are creating the need to sell more dollar-denominated debt to foreign investors who are already choking on it. While this was bearish for bonds today, we don’t expect this to continue because, to the extent that higher bond yields tend to drive stocks down and weaken the U.S. economy, we would expect the Fed to produce whatever liquidity is needed to shift some of the downward pressure that is on the bond and stock markets to the U.S. dollar…..That is largely why we are long non-U.S. bond markets against U.S. bonds and why we are short the dollar."

There follows a mildly downbeat assessment of the US economy.

JB

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG (1719, up 13) and DOW (9194 up, 36) keep rolling along. Pretty scary. The potential for a significant tanking is very real. It seems to me most of the Wall Street crowd is focusing on details and missing the big picture, like a sailor who can’t see a monster storm approaching. OK earnings aren’t going to do much once the storm hits. Pension deficit problems, state deficit problems, growing government deficits, sharply rising long-term rates, personal debt issues, Iraq war problems, growing joblessness, etc are not getting better. What’s worse is the Fed and present Administration have pulled out most all their stops to get the economy cooking and it is not working. Look out below!

How desperate is the US Fed?

By Corbett B. Daly
CBSMarketWatch

WASHINGTON, July 23 -- The Federal Reserve should stand ready to cut overnight lending rates to zero if the economy needs an extra jolt, said a Fed governor on Wednesday.

"We should be willing to cut the funds rate to zero, should that prove necessary to provide the required support to the economy," Federal Reserve Board Gov. Ben Bernanke said in a speech at the University of California, San Diego. A copy of the speech was released in Washington…..

It was Bernanke`s speech in November last year that helped fuel a huge rally in the bond market on the notion the Fed might take the unconventional step of buying Treasury securities to hold down borrowing costs.

The policymaking committee`s point man on deflation said the risk of further declines in inflation from an already low level outweighs the risk of a resurgence in inflation.

"We are currently in a range where undershooting our inflation objective by 1 percentage point is more costly than overshooting by 1 percentage point," he said.

"Hence, monetary ease appears to be indicated for a considerable period," Bernanke said, adding "keeping the funds rate target at or near its current level for an extended period may be sufficient."

The Fed cut the key federal funds rate target by a quarter point to a 45-year low of 1.0 percent on June 25 in an effort to boost the economy and encourage a bit of inflation.

Bernanke said that because of substantial amounts of excess capacity in the economy, the Fed should be mindful of continued low inflation.

"Even if the economy recovers smartly for the rest of this y…

Bernanke said he sees the core rate of inflation falling to 0.7 percent, from the current 1.2 percent, by the end of next year.

Bernanke said that the Fed should be more worried about slowly rising prices than falling prices.

"Inflation in the range of 0.5 percent per year in the United States in the couple of years, though relatively unlikely, is considerably more likely than deflation of 0.5 percent per year," Bernanke said.

Bernanke again alluded to the possibility that the central bank might use non-traditional methods to stimulate the economy by keeping long-term interest rates low.

"Such measures might include, among others, increased purchases of longer-term government bonds by the Fed, an announced program of oversupplying bank reserves, term lending through the discount window at very low rates, and the issuance of options to borrow from the Fed at low rates," Bernanke said.

-END-

Bonds barely reacted to the news, closing 110 22/32, up only 9 basis points. There were many viewpoints from various pundits that bonds collapsed the past few weeks because Greenspan failed to emphasize these measures when speaking before Congress. OK, now Bernanke has been called into action to assure investors these extreme measures ARE still on the table. The bond vigilantes yawned. Bonds remain oversold, but all rallies are feeble. The bond vigilantes have come to realize the Fed can’t keep going on like they have been without creating too much stimulus.

Bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

While Bernanke’s statement might have drawn a yawn from the bond vigilantes, it is electric news for gold bulls. What can be more bullish than printing money willy-nilly, zero interest rates, etc?

Stock bulls beware:

Advisors’ Sentiment Review
July 23rd 2003

Advisor bullishness continues

Bears rose a bit this week to 19.8%, up from 17.0% from last week and not that far from the 16.1% reading of June 13th. That was the fewest number of bears since April 1987. Bulls dipped a bit to 55.2%, from 57.4%, and that is also not that far from its June 13th reading of 60.2%, the most bulls since February 2001. Compounding the negatives was the huge 500+ buying climaxes last week, dwarfing the previous record 325 seen a few weeks ago. Buying climaxes are a sign of distribution, indicating that stocks are passing from strong hands to weak ones. The heavy level of insider selling, more than four sales for each buy, is another big concern. For the first time in a number of months some of or indicators are starting to give sell signals. The NYSE cumulative advance-decline line moved to a negative high pole, as breadth readings appear to be ending their 4 month winning streak. Our Bullish % Sum for industry groups has also turned negative. We have been selling stocks we had bought at the July and October 2002 and the March 2003 lows and have also been making some short sales.

Bullish Themes

The Bulls remain at very high levels, despite the fact that the Dow has yet to exceed its June 6th peak. Bulls believe the tax cuts, low interest rates and momentum will propel the market higher. At the moment, they are ignoring the sentiment and insider readings as well as the excessive valuations.

Bearish Themes

The bears edged up a bit to 19.8%, from 17.0% last week and 16.1% five weeks ago. That was the lowest reading since April 1987. The strong market rally left advisors not wanting to fight the tape and the fed. Fed rate cuts plus the tax cuts have also added to the big drop in the bears.


The difference between the bulls and bears continues to be very wide, and sentiment readings anyway you look at them are clearly lousy. This does not mean the market will drop right away, but the handwriting is on the wall. Other sentiment readings for individual investors and company insiders show that the wrong people (small investors and investment advisors) are bullish, while the wrong people (insiders) are very bearish.

Three goodies from GATA’s Mike Bolser. The first two came in last evening right after the MIDAS was up:

Hi Bill:

Dollar Index Value of Gold: Significant Level Almost Reached

The key level of 325 DIVG has been all but reached in gold`s latest rebound to $352 today [PM Fix]. The last time this occurred gold was hit hard in the middle of May as it was in Feb 2003.

This time however, Don Linley`s COMEX options cube data suggest that a new floor has been constructed at $349. If true, this floor would leave too little up and down range for gold to be effectively held in check, therefore there logically must be a higher DIVG value in store [The MCDI is tracking sideways].

The barrier of 325 DIVG has been in effect since January 2002 [See DIVG/2002]. It has been my belief that a specific DIVG value [325] has been the basis for central bank and bullion acolyte gold sales intervention.

If it happens that the DIVG moves upwards to say 330 [From 324 where it is today] or even 340 it will signify to me that an important Fed and Treasury retreat is in progress.

Best, Mike





Hi Bill:

The large Dec 5th to Feb 5th upwards spike in the DIVG was due not to our much storied Hung Fat and Dr. No but to the absence of Exchange Stabilization Fund tools because Secretary of the Treasury O`Neill had left abruptly with no replacement. Even the President cannot directly access the ESF`s funds and for good separation-of-powers reasons.

Without operative ESF tools in place after Dec 5th, the gold price rose steadily through the barrier of 325 DIVG until John Snow was confirmed (As Reg Howe has previously explained at www.goldensextant.com),

In examining the trace of DIVG we can see that 325 is an important level. If it is broken while ESF tools are functioning it will be a significant event.
Mike

Repo Update: Fed Again Late, $7 Billion add

Hi Bill:

It may mean nothing but the Fed was late again today with its open market desk announcement. They issued $7Billion in overnight repos which brings the pool total [Now $34.25B] back slightly above its 30-day moving average. Tomorrow`s expiration is therefore set at $19 Billion.

The primary dealers may get a new add of say...$10-11 Billion on Thursday leaving the pool total back down around $24 Billion but this guess is only based upon past practices.

Adding Conventional Technical Analysis

Today`s repo chart shows black lines forming a narrowing up and down range which intersects in the next few days. This is a familiar technique used by TA specialists to signify an abrupt move in either direction.

Because of the dropping repo pool total 30-day moving average however, we already have additional information as to the direction of that TA indicated change­down.

The bonds [Which are now immune to Fed actions] attempted a weak but now failed rally while gold has staged a strong rally. If the repo hypothesis is correct, we may soon witness falling bonds, rising gold, a falling stock market in addition to a falling dollar.

Put your helmet on.

Mike

More bullish gold news from the most unlikely of sources. Ted Truman (featured below) was fingered by GATA years ago as The Gold Cartel’s bagman. For years he worked for the Fed and Treasury. The day a GATA delegation met with Speaker of The House Dennis Hastert and Spencer Bachus, chairman of the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, he sent GATA a note saying the gold market was not manipulated. Our input from those meetings went straight to him that day. He worked at Treasury at the time.

Economists See Euro At $1.50 As US Trade Deficit Adjusts

Tue Jul 22, 3:16 PM ET

By Elizabeth Price, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The euro will likely rise to about $1.50 once the U.S. current account deficit begins to adjust to a more sustainable level, Edwin Truman, a former U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve official, said Tuesday.

Truman, now a scholar at the Institute for International Economics, estimated the effect of the stronger euro will cut Europe`s economic growth rate by 1%-2% of gross domestic product. It is a prospect for which they are unprepared to cope, and have few options for softening the blow to the economy, he said.

"I would advocate prayer," Truman said taking part in a panel discussion on currency markets sponsored by the American Enterprise Institute.

The threat of abrupt currency realignments posed by the massive U.S. current account deficit makes the need for structural reforms in Europe and Japan all the more acute, said Truman and other economists…..

-By Elizabeth Price, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9295; [e-mail]

If Truman thinks the euro is going to 150, I wonder where he…

A heads-up:

A video interview that was done today with John Ing, president of Maison Placement, an investment banking house, is on the ROBTV web site at:

http://www.robtv.com/channels/hubs/pastprograms_highlights.h…

Ing`s bio is here:

http://www.cim.org/toronto/calendar/apr17_2003.html

He predicts gold will sell at $510 this year, and calls the …

Robert Ames

Well done Fred:

Bill, last year I attended the American Numismatic National Coin show in New York City and I spoke to many dealers about GATA, derivatives and central bank selling. Yesterday, I received the most recent copy of The Coin Dealer, which circulates to coin dealers in the country. Volume XXVIII No. 7 contained a supplement, which talked about the significance of gold as money and its importance in coin market booms. The author Richard Nachbar wrote a detailed summary of the connection between central banks, governments and gold prices from the 1950’s – 1970’s.

The author then went on to explain how central bank gold over the last eight years has been lent/swapped or sold. Yes, the GATA story is getting out there every day! The article mentioned your name and web site for people to educate themselves on this opportunity in gold. This little story is significant, as many coin dealers will be able to educate their clients on the "untold story of gold". I appreciate the author as well as the "Coin Dealer Newletter" putting out this article. The whole story will eventually come out when the price of gold coins are significantly higher, but I wanted to thank you and the rest of the GATA army for your work, persistence and ethics.

Dr Fred Goldstein
Swiss America
800-289-2646 ext 1033
[e-mail]

So much for those who shorted Newmont based on focusing on a bass-ackwards understanding and misrepresentation of various gold fundamentals!

Newmont ($35.28, up $1.88)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Oops, just got something in on that. Had planned to drop it, but it seems Mike Norman (who does have a good reputation) won’t let his glaringly out of it gold views fade away. Here is what was presented in the last Thursday MIDAS (Newmont traded between $31 and $32 per share from Wednesday to Thursday):

Here is a good example of the pathetic drivel out there in financial land that is masquerading as professional gold market commentary:

Mike Norman

Still time to sell gold stocks

7/17/03 10:11 AM ET


Bullion price is breaking down due to a slew of bearish factors that include:

a.. Rising interest rates
b.. Economic improvement
c.. Resumption of hedging
d.. Rising output
e.. Falling jewelry demand

Gold stocks have held up because the current price is very profitable and producers have begun to lock in that price by selling forward. Ultimately, gold stocks will follow bullion prices lower.

Short NEM

**********-

Fox News puts this guy on one of its Saturday morning financial market programs.

Good Lord!

*Short rates are NOT going up. Long-term rates are. That scenario is very gold BULLISH, not bearish. In the seventies gold ran up along with long-term rates.
*The economy is improving, but jewelry demand is falling??? Makes no sense.
*Resumption of hedging? Says who? Reduction of forward sales continues to DECREASE.
*Rising gold output?? Says who? Gold coming out of the mines is headed lower after years of little gold exploration and high-grading of the ore. The only extra output keeping the price of gold from soaring is coming out of The Gold Cartel

Go ahead Norman, short Newmont. You are going to be carried out with the cabal.

-END-

A veteran Café member thought I was too hard on Norman, saying his calls have been good. Maybe, I wrote back, but I am not going to let outright false statements about gold stand. Without a doubt, gold is the worst reported and least understood market in the world. I suggested our Café member send my comments to Norman. I understand he did. Perhaps this is the result:

Gold Bugs Are Getting Feisty
By Mike Norman

Special to TheStreet.com

07/23/2003 03:58 PM EDT

I`ve been getting bombarded by emails today from gold bugs who are crawling out of the woodwork as a result of this mild short-covering rally.

I haven`t changed my views on gold; in fact, my long list of bearish factors has just gotten longer. You can now add rising bond yields to that list, which also includes:

Rising production.
Declining jewelry-related demand.
Resumed hedging.
Reduced geopolitical influences.
Rebounding equity markets.

Dollar rally to resume after brief correction.

These factors will eventually turn gold and gold stocks lower. I am short and remaining that way.

(Mike Norman, tönt ja fast genauso wie unser Wardriver!TG)

One email included a quote from a widely followed hedge fund manager who took issue with my views on gold. This manager was particularly critical of my statements about the importance of gold demand tied to jewelry fabrication, saying that he "hadn`t seen much on jewelry demand, but it isn`t the driving force behind gold." He went on to say, "It`s investment demand that matters."

On the contrary, jewelry fabrication is by far the largest single demand factor for gold, accounting for nearly 2,800 tons last year. In contrast, investment demand last year accounted for a puny 400 tons -- one-seventh the amount of jewelry demand -- and that meager investment demand came during a year that witnessed a brutal stock market selloff.

Mike NormanMoreover, Japanese investors were behind much of this investment demand because of the decline in their stock market. As we see now, Japan`s markets have rebounded smartly.

As far as hedging is concerned, the latest Commitments of Traders Report put out by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that commercial hedgers are now short gold, whereas speculators are heavily long.

In addition, year-over-year comparisons clearly show that hedging activity is on the rise. The average total commercial short position this year has been 134,336 contracts, vs. 110,916 contracts in 2002. That`s a 21% increase in short-selling by commercials year over year.

The aforementioned hedge fund manager also says that my analysis is flawed and I miss the whole point. In light of all these facts, I think it`s the other way around. Too bad hyperbole just seems to sell better.

-END-

Amazing, Norman won’t quit even though he has already being blown out on his Newmont short. Again, that is his call. We all make bad market calls. But he continues to put out even more WRONG information. MN confuses the short positions of the commercials with the activity of the hedgers. He doesn’t understand that a good amount of the short gold position is The Gold Cartel’s. Is there anyone left in the gold world that doesn’t know the hedgers continue to dramatically reduce their short position? Cowabunga! Even cabal apologist GFMS recognizes that fact.

Panning low Japanese investment demand compared to last year, when it surged during the yen tanking, as a negative for gold is ridiculous. Sure it is way down on a comparative basis. John Brimelow has brought that development to your attention for many months. Yet investment demand is surging elsewhere, such as in India, Turkey, Korea, China, and in the Arab/Muslim world. Besides, gold demand in general already outstrips gold supply by over 1200 tonnes per year!

Sheesh Norman, go back to what you are good at. If you are going to stay on this gold kick, at least get your facts right or keep your opinions to yourself. To circulate disinformation all over the place doesn’t do anyone any good.

It appears the 8+ move down in the HUI last Wednesday was a "Killer Move" after all. The HUI has reversed course since then and shot straight up. It closed today at 159.29, up a whopping 9.65. The XAU rocked too, closing at 81.46, up 4.14.


HUI

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Sure enough, the HUI took out yesterday’s high on the opening and then roared into multi-year new high ground. There is no telling how high this index could go. There is an entire investment world that remains clueless about the real gold story.

Stretcher-bearers, please stay on alert. We will have need of your services soon. The Gold Cartel is in big trouble.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Appendix

Wonderful commentary from Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach:

Jul 22, 2003

Global: Losing Control

Stephen Roach (New York)

The current rout in the US bond market is starting to reach epic proportions. Yields on 10-year Treasuries have backed up an astonishing 108 bp in just five weeks. Given the record low yields that were prevailing on June 13 (daily close of 3.11%), this sell-off is far worse on a percentage change basis -- a 35% surge in long-term government interest rates. It’s a carnage that is now taking on the trappings of the worst sell-off of them all -- the great bond market rout of 1994, when yields on 10-year Treasuries rose by 44% (or 246 bp from 5.57% in January 1994 to 8.03% in November 1994). Needless to say, if the rout continues, all bets could be off on other asset markets, to say nothing of the nascent recovery in the US economy.

What happened? No one wants to accept blame for bad things -- least of all the Federal Reserve. But America’s central bank is hardly an innocent bystander in the extraordinary volatility that has afflicted the bond market. A deflation-fighting Fed initially encouraged the markets to accept two key premises -- the first being it that it would not repeat the mistakes of the Bank of Japan and take its policy rate to "zero." Second, the Fed went out of its way to assure market participants that it had an ample arsenal of "non-traditional" policy tools available to fight deflation should it run out of conventional ammunition. At the top of the laundry list insofar as non-traditional remedies were concerned was the distinct possibility that the Fed would make direct purchases of long-dated Treasuries. As its deflationary concerns intensified in early May, the US central bank did little to dissuade market participants that such actions might have been the offing. Largely on the basis of those expectations, there was a stunning rally at the long end of the US Treasury market that took yields to record lows in early June. The market remained a believer right up to the eve of the Fed’s late June policy meeting. On June 24 -- the day before its policy pronouncement -- yields on 10-year Treasuries stood at 3.25%.

And then the world tilted. Actually, it all really started with a late-June article in the Wall Street Journal ("Next Fed Rate Cut May Be Smaller Than Expected" by Greg Ip on June 20, 2003), which suggested that the Fed’s research staff was having second thoughts about the non-traditional tactics involving direct purchases at the long end of the Treasury yield curve. The Fed went on to ease by only 25 bp on June 25 -- an action that not only fell a bit short of a more aggressive move that had been priced into fixed income markets but one that failed to pay any lip service to the issue of non-traditional easing. Then Chairman Alan Greenspan made matters far worse in his semi-annual policy statement to the Congress in early July. By stating that that the Fed still had plenty of leeway for a substantial easing of its traditional policy instrument, he changed dramatically the operative assumption on the lower boundary of the federal funds rate. Previously, we had been led to believe that the Fed would be reluctant to go through the 50-75 bp threshold on the funds rate. Now it seems as if the Fed would be willing to entertain the possibility of a BOJ-like "zero" federal funds rate target, should circumstances so dictate. With markets now convinced that traditional policy options were likely to be on the table for much longer that previously expected, it seemed reasonable to conclude that the non-traditional option of buying the 10-year deserved a lower probability. And then the rout was on -- a massive unwinding of the "deflation trade." From the eve of the Fed’s policy announcement on June 24 through the July 21 close, yields on the 10-year have surged some 94 bp.

There are a number of alternative explanations to this dramatic sell-off in the bond market.

There are those, of course, who claim that signs of incipient economic recovery have turned the bond market inside out. While I’m hardly objective on that point, even the diehard growth optimists concede that the evidence remains mixed at this point and that the vigorous recovery call is still a forecast (see Dick Berner’s July 18 dispatch, "Recovery Signs"). Others have argued that the rapidly deteriorating federal budget deficit is the culprit, sparked by the administration’s midyear confession that the budget shortfall is likely to hit $455 billion in the current fiscal year. While I would be the last to minimize the significance of this development, it hardly qualifies as the singular surprise that can explain the bond market’s extreme gyrations over the past few weeks. In my view, this sell-off has the fingerprints of the Fed all over it. Maybe it’s all a coincidence that this chain of events unfolded at the same time that Fedspeak reversed course. But I doubt it.

As to where the bond market goes from here, my advice is to ignore the economists and listen to the traders. It’s been my experience that huge market moves like this have little to do with fundamentals and much more to do with market technicals and trading dynamics. The very concept of "fair value" is utterly meaningless at times like this. I am still scarred by my futile efforts to make sense of the bond market carnage of 1994. Even so, I can’t help but note that long-term real interest rates of 2.2% (as measured by the 10-year TIPS) are still well below average (3.5%) for a recovering economy with outsize budget deficits. In other words, if I’ve got the recovery bet wrong, even the economics suggests that there’s still plenty of upside to yields from current levels.

But here’s where I defer to the traders. Their tone is starting to sound very similar to that which was evident some nine years ago. As was the case back then, there’s great concern today over selling pressures stemming from mortgage "convexity." And yet today’s US economy is actually far more dependent on the infrastructure of home mortgage financing and refinancing than it was in 1994. According to Federal Reserve data, mortgage debt outstanding is currently about 67% of GDP; by contrast, in 1994, the ratio was 48%. If anything, that suggests there could be an even more powerful convexity-related unwind this time around. The traders today are telling us exactly what they did back then -- the more rates back up, the more the long end gets hammered by an unwinding of mortgage-related hedging. It’s a warning we have to take seriously.

But that’s not all. One of my most seasoned trader compatriots has always warned that a yield curve which "steepens in a downtrade" is emblematic of the most virulent of bear markets. And that’s exactly what is going on today. The spread between 2s and 10s in the Treasury market hit 259 bp at the close on 21 July -- equaling the yield gap last seen in 1992. The traders are telling me that this "bear spasm" is now at risk of feeding on itself -- until or unless it is stopped by an unexpected weakening in the economy or by direct intervention by the authorities.

This is hardly an outcome that the Fed, or any of us, would deem desirable in the current climate. It runs the very real risk of spilling over into other asset markets -- especially given the mounting potential for an a further sell-off in the US dollar as part and parcel of America’s long overdue current-account adjustment. Moreover, a sharp additional back-up in long rates poses a serious threat to a nascent recovery in the US economy -- not only crimping the credit-sensitive sectors of homebuilding, capital spending, and consumer durables but also aborting the home mortgage refinancing cycle that has been so supportive of consumer demand. We tend to forget that the US economy is still closer to the brink of deflation than inflation. Wouldn’t it be ironic -- and tragic -- if the perils of deflation were compounded by a rout in the bond market?

In my view, all this is indicative of what happens when defl…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

GOLD



Dollar



Silber



DOW



S&P



NASDAQ

[silvo]

Silber-Lease-Rates steigen massiv an!



Grund???

[hpoth]

Vieleicht rückt keiner Silber raus? mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Entweder bereitet sich das Silber Cabal auf den nächsten Abverkauf des Silbers vor, oder das Cabal kriegt die benötigten Mengen an Silber nur mehr schwer zusammen, um ihren Lieferverpflichtungen gerecht zu werden. Je mehr physisches Silber gekauft wird, desto schneller geht es bis den Silberpreis Manipulateuren die Munition ausgeht.

Einige Kilo Barren Silber zu kaufen, ist nicht nur eine gute Anlageentscheidung, und zur Zeit noch so billig wie vor ca. 25 Jahren, sondern hilft zusätzlich ein kleines Stück weiter, dass den Silberpreis Manipulateuren die "Munition" etwas schneller ausgeht. Wenn viele Leute echtes Silber, anstelle von Papier Silber erwerben würden, könnten wir uns alle schneller an steigenden Silberpreisen erfreuen.

14 Jahre Silberproduktionsdefizit werden so oder so, früher, oder später, das Silber Preis Cabal schlussendlich zur Aufgabe ihrer Machenschaften zwingen!

Jeder einzelne Leser kann aber selbst auch aktiv dazu beitragen, dass dieser Zeitpunkt etwas schneller Realität wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[Magor]

Gestern hatte ich doch von den Nachzüglern einen Schub für Silber von +10 % für heute erwartet .....
bisher sind wir bei +1% ..
d.h., 9 % sind noch auf dem Weg ...
Go Silver, go !!!

War da nicht die vergangene Tage auch beim Gold-Zinssatz solch ein riesen-Sprung? Wo ist der übrigens abgeblieben aus den Charts ??? : - ((
Oder ist dies jetzt bei Silber (auch) nur ein Chart-Darstellungsfehler ???

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-2289444.…

COEUR D``ALENE, Idaho, July 24

Highlights -- Second quarter silver production of 3.8 million ounces, up 15 percent from a year ago. -- Six months silver production of 7.4 million ounces, up 19 percent over the last year``s period. -- Second quarter gold production of 29,682 ounces, up 29 percent over last year``s period. -- Six months gold production of 62,845 ounces, up 59 percent over previous year. -- Cerro Bayo/Martha mines produced 1.3 million silver ounces during the second quarter, more than five times last year``s second quarter, at cash costs of $1.33 per ounce. -- Six month operating cash flow (before working capital changes) of $6.5 million compared to $(8.1) million in 2002``s comparable period. -- New mineralized zone discovered at Cerro Bayo containing 27 ft of 0.77 ounces per ton gold equivalent in initial drill hole. -- Debt reduced 66 percent from end of first quarter. From 1998 to July, 21, 2003 debt level has declined from $288.6 million to the current $28.9 million. -- Company-wide silver reserves increased 164 percent with 126 million ounces of new silver reserves at San Bartolome in Bolivia. -- A total of 14.6 million ounces of silver production expected in 2003, with estimated full-year gold production of 112,000 ounces. 2003 cash costs estimated at $3.43 per ounce of silver.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> "Since the end of the first quarter, Coeur has continued its silver and gold production growth, significantly improved its financial strength, and substantially grown the total reserve base. We remain on track for a year of strong silver and gold production and much stronger financial results," said Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Our South American mines -- the Cerro Bayo and Martha -- continue to drive our improved production and cash flow compared to a year ago, adding four times the silver equivalent production compared to last year`s second quarter, and at extremely low production costs. Exploration results in South America are outstanding, and we anticipate additional high-grade reserve increases this year.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Meanwhile, our debt restructuring efforts continued, with an additional 66 percent reduction in convertible indebtedness since the end of the first quarter. As of July 21, 2003 our total debt had been reduced to just $28.9 million. With our strong cash position, we are able to maintain our growth. Finally, the conversion of San Bartolome``s resources to proven and probable reserves increases our silver reserve base by 164 percent, and further advances this major silver project."

Financial Summary

Coeur d`` Alene Mines Corporation , the world``s largest primary silver producer, today reported second quarter 2003 revenue of $26.2 million, an 18 percent increase over revenue of $22.1 million in the second quarter of 2002. The increase was due primarily to the higher silver and gold production from the Company``s Cerro Bayo and Martha mines in South America, which began production in the second quarter of 2002. Company-wide production in the second quarter was 3,761,787 ounces of silver and 29,682 ounces of gold, up 15 percent and 29 percent, respectively, from the previous year``s second quarter.

For the first six months of 2003, Company revenue was $55.5 …

During the second quarter 2003 the Company reported a net loss of $4.4 million, or $0.03 per share, compared to a net loss of $10.9 million, or $0.16 per share a year ago. For the first six months of 2003, the Company reported a net loss of $35.6 million, or $0.26 per share, which included a $28.2 million charge for the early retirement of debt, based on the issuance of common shares in excess of the original conversion ratio and a charge of $2.3 million related to a change in accounting principle associated with reclamation reserves. For the first six months of 2002 the Company reported a loss of $22.8 million, or $0.38 per share.

The Company``s balance sheet continues to strengthen. Since the end of the first quarter, convertible indebtedness has been reduced by $56.4 million, representing a 66 percent reduction in the Company``s convertible debt. Taking into consideration these debt reductions, the Company``s convertible indebtedness due in December 2003 and January 2004 totaled $14.7 million at July 21, 2003. Since the beginning of 1998, Coeur``s total debenture indebtedness has been reduced from $288.6 million to the current $28.9 million at July 21, 2003.

Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2003 was $19.5 million. Year to date operating cash flow before working capital changes improved to $6.4 million compared to cash used in operations of $8.1 million in 2002.

For the second quarter, Coeur realized an average silver price of $4.53 per ounce compared to an average realized price during last year``s second quarter of $4.77 per ounce. For its gold sales, Coeur realized an average price of $330 per ounce during the second quarter compared to an average gold price of $304 per ounce during the same period last year.

2003 Estimated Production, Cash Costs and Capital Expenditures

For the full year 2003, Coeur anticipates consolidated silver production of 14.6 million ounces. Company-wide gold production is expected to be 112,000 ounces. Coeur anticipates full year cash operating costs of $3.43 per ounce/silver, and capital expenditures are expected to total $19.4 million, mostly due to the relocation of the crushing facility at Rochester, which will be completed this year.

Overview of Operations South America Cerro Bayo (Chile)/Martha (Argentina) -- 1,347,745 million ounces of silver and 14,538 ounces of gold produced during the second quarter, up 417 percent and 146 percent, respectively, over last year``s period -- Low cash costs of $1.33 per ounce of silver during second quarter -- First six months production of 2,625,202 silver ounces and 36,954 gold ounces -- Average discovery costs currently less than $0.10 per ounce of silver equivalent

During the second quarter, Cerro Bayo increased silver production more than five times the amount produced the same period a year ago, to a total of 1.3 million ounces. Gold production increased nearly two and a half times to 14,538 ounces. This was due largely to the fact that the mine initiated production in the second quarter last year. Cash costs during the second quarter 2003 were $1.33 per ounce of silver.

North America Rochester Mine (Nevada) -- 1,353,346 million ounces of silver and 15,144 ounces of gold produced during the second quarter -- 2,443,046 million ounces of silver and 25,891 ounces of gold produced in first six months period -- Cash costs of $4.33 per ounce of silver during the second quarter, a decrease of 30 percent from the first quarter -- Cost expected to return to $4 level in second half of 2003

Rochester produced 1.4 million ounces of silver and 15,100 ounces of gold during the second quarter compared to 1.6 million ounces of silver and 17,100 ounces of gold in the second quarter of last year. The lower production was due primarily to factors related to the crusher relocation project

However, cash costs at Rochester declined 30 percent from the first quarter, to $4.33 per ounce of silver, as the measures taken to offset the crusher relocation began to take effect. The Company anticipates cash costs to drop below $4.00 per ounce in the second half of the year, with the completion of installation of the new crusher, and as high-grade ore under the old crusher is accessed.

Coeur Silver Valley - Galena Mine (Idaho) -- Second quarter silver production of 1,060,696 million ounces -- Cash operating costs of $4.73 in quarter -- New optimization plan for developing new veins, infrastructure -- Future production growth, lower cash costs are projected

At Coeur Silver Valley, silver production was 1.1 million ounces in the second quarter, down slightly from the 1.4 million ounces produced in the same period last year. Cash operating costs increased to $4.73 per ounce during the recent second quarter, compared to $4.14 per ounce in last year``s period. The increase was largely due to short-term grade issues.

In July, the Company announced the temporary suspension of silver production at Silver Valley in order to complete major scheduled repairs on the mine``s hoisting equipment. During the maintenance period, Coeur began a program designed to increase production and lower costs through 2011.

Mine personnel are currently completing Coeur``s ongoing review of this expansion plan that is designed to materially reduce Silver Valley``s cash costs by 2006 and significantly increase silver production by 2008.

Strong Exploration Results (South America) Cerro Bayo

A significant high-grade discovery was made at the end of second quarter on a wide mineralized zone located between the Javiera and Wendy veins in the central Cerro Bayo area. The initial discovery hole contains 27 feet of 0.77 opt gold equivalent and is located 200 meters west of existing underground infrastructure of the Cerro Bayo mine. The mineralized zone is composed of two high grade veins containing 5.7 feet of 0.97 opt Au Eq and 7.7 feet of 1.33 opt Au Eq. Initial interpretations are that this zone was penetrated close to its intersection with the Javiera vein and remains open primarily to the south and at depth. This mineralized zone does not outcrop and substantiates the exploration potential immediately west of the Lucero vein.

Other veins discovered in the first six months of 2003 include the Daniella vein, with an initial drill hole locating a seven-foot wide vein assaying 1.08 gold equivalent ounces per ton. Also, the Guanaco 2 Sur vein was discovered with an initial drill hole containing eight feet of 0.34 gold equivalent ounces per ton. Coeur continues to have good exploration results in the Guanaco 2 Sur vein that is known to extend over a 3000 feet of strike length.

The successful results of the Company``s exploration efforts and the presence of numerous untested targets on our large land package continues to support our belief that the Cerro Bayo property has the potential to contain reserves in excess of one million gold equivalent ounces.

Martha Mine and Santa Cruz Province

In the Santa Cruz Province of Argentina, initial reconnaissance over our 465 square mile land package continues to discover numerous low sulfide, epithermal veins. These veins are being geologically mapped and sampled prior to drilling, which is planned during the second half of this year.

Exploration efforts continued during the second quarter at the Martha Mine to discover very high grade ore shoots such as the R4 Zone along the eastern extension of the Martha vein. The high grade R4 Zone is located less than 600 feet east of the Martha mine, with average grades in excess of 100 silver equivalent ounces per ton. One drill intercept in the R4 Zone contained 44 feet of .42 ounces of gold per ton, and 666 ounces of silver per ton. An IP/ resistivity geophysical survey was conducted over the R4 Zone and the eastern extension of the Martha vein. The R4 Zone demonstrated a strong IP/ resistivity response that was similar to other untested anomalies on the Martha and other veins on the property. These geophysical anomalies will be drill tested during the third quarter.

At the Tesoro prospect on the Malbec property, located six miles north of the Martha mine, core drilling under a massive sulfide outcrop encountered 37 feet of polymetallic mineralization containing .04 ounce per ton gold, 14.2 ounces per ton silver, 2.8 percent copper, 9.2 percent lead and 19 percent zinc beginning at 25 feet below the surface. This massive sulfide zone has now been traced down to 130 feet below the surface.

Due to very limited exposures surrounding the massive sulfide outcrop, the Company conducted an IP/resistivity geophysical survey over a 1300 ft by 1300 ft area to find extensions of the mineralization.

Geophysics detected a very large chargeability anomaly at a depth of approximately 200 feet below the surface. The anomaly is somewhat flat lying underneath the entire surveyed area and approximately 30 to 60 ft thick. The flat lying layer may represent an altered unit with disseminations of massive sulfides similar to those intersected in the recent drilling. A drilling program is planned during the third quarter to test the geophysical anomalies.

126 Million Ounces of New Proven and Probable Silver Reserve…

At the Company``s major San Bartolome silver project in Bolivia, resources at the property were converted to proven and probable reserves totaling 126 million silver ounces, which effectively increased Coeur``s company-wide silver reserves by 164 percent. The new reserves measure 35.3 million tons at 3.58 ounces of silver per ton.

An updated feasibility study is underway to establish a final mine plan and refining construction cost estimates. Assuming a construction decision by early 2004, the project could be in production in 2005 after an 18-month construction period. The ore is accessible in above ground gravel deposits in a region with historical silver production of over two billion ounces.

Once in production, San Bartolome is expected to contribute …

Hedging

Coeur does not currently have any of its silver production hedged. The Company currently has 40,000 ounces of gold sold forward over the next 15 months at an average price of $339 per ounce.

Coeur d``Alene Mines Corporation is the country``s largest silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce. We use the term "resources" in this press release which the SEC guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2002 and Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2003. You can review and obtain copies of that filing from the SEC website at http://www.sec.gov/edgar.html.

This document contains numerous forward-looking statements relating to the Company``s silver and gold mining business. The United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. Operating, exploration and financial data, and other statements in this document are based on information the company believes reasonable, but involve significant uncertainties as to future gold and silver prices, costs, ore grades, estimation of gold and silver reserves, mining and processing conditions, changes that could result from the Company``s future acquisition of new mining properties or businesses, the risks and hazards inherent in the mining business (including environmental hazards, industrial accidents, weather or geologically related conditions), regulatory and permitting matters, and risks inherent in the ownership and operation of, or investment in, mining properties or businesses in foreign countries. Actual results and timetables could vary significantly from the estimates presented. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements. The Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Contact: Tony Ebersole, Investor Relations of Coeur d``Alene Mines Corporation, [phone].

COEUR D`` ALENE MINES CORPORATION PRODUCTION STATISTICS Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2003 2002 2003 2002 ROCHESTER MINE Silver ozs. 1,353,346 1,637,443 2,443,046 3,053,210 Gold ozs. 15,144 17,132 25,891 33,555 Cash Costs per oz./silver $4.33 $2.88 $5.28 $3.27 Full Costs per oz./silver $5.45 $3.72 $6.32 $4.11 GALENA MINE Silver ozs. 1,060,696 1,383,449 2,296,467 2,856,991 Cash Costs per oz./silver $4.73 $4.14 $4.46 $4.05 Full Costs per oz./silver $5.10 $4.86 $4.78 $4.74 CERRO BAYO/MARTHA MINE (A) Silver ozs. 1,347,745 260,543 2,625,202 260,543 Gold ozs. 14,538 5,919 36,954 5,919 Cash Costs per oz./silver $1.33 $1.39 $0.54 $1.39 Full Costs per oz./silver $2.98 $6.79 $2.51 $6.79 CONSOLIDATED PRODUCTION TOTALS Silver ozs. 3,761,787 3,281,435 7,364,715 6,170,744 Gold ozs. 29,682 23,051 62,845 39,474 Primary Silver Cost per oz. $3.37 $3.29 $3.33 $3.55 CONSOLIDATED SALES TOTALS Silver ozs. sold 3,624,000 3,100,000 7,774,000 6,034,000 Gold ozs. sold 33,000 19,000 68,000 36,000 Realized price per silver oz. $4.53 $4.77 $4.65 $4.64 Realized price per gold oz. $330 $304 $336 $298 (A) The Company commenced production in April 2002. See reconciliation of non-GAAP cash costs to GAAP production costs below.

Note: "Cash Costs per Ounce" are calculated by dividing the cash costs computed for each of the Company``s mining properties for a specified period by the amount of silver ounces produced by that property during that same period. Management uses cash costs per ounce produced as a key indicator of the profitability of each of its mining properties. Gold and silver are sold and priced in the world financial markets on a US dollar per ounce basis. By calculating the cash costs from each of the Company``s mines on the same unit basis, management can easily determine the gross margin that each ounce of gold and silver produced is generating.

"Cash Costs" are costs directly related to the physical activities of producing silver and gold and include mining, processing and other plant costs, deferred mining adjustments, third-party refining and smelting costs, marketing expense, on-site general and administrative costs, royalties, in- mine drilling expenditures that are related to production and other direct costs. Sales of by-product metals (primarily gold and copper) are deducted from the above in computing cash costs. Cash costs exclude depreciation, depletion and amortization, corporate general and administrative expense, exploration, interest, and pre-feasibility costs and accruals for mine reclamation. Cash costs are calculated and presented using the "Gold Institute Production Cost Standard" applied consistently for all periods presented.

Total cash costs per ounce is a non-GAAP measurement and investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on it and are urged to read all GAAP accounting disclosures presented in the consolidated financial statements and accompanying footnotes. In addition, see the reconciliation of "cash costs" to production costs under "Costs and Expenses" set forth below:

Three months ended June 30, 2003 Rochester Silver Valley Cerro Bayo(1) Total Production of Silver (ounces) 1,353,346 1,060,696 1,347,745 3,761,787 Cash Costs per ounce $4.33 $4.73 $1.33 $3.37 Total Cash Costs (thousands) $5,861 $5,021 $1,786 $12,668 Add/(Subtract): Third Party Smelting Costs (193) (1,287) (1,027) (2,507) By-Product Credit 5,281 585 5,019 10,885 Deferred Stripping Adjustment (80) -- -- (80) Change in Inventory (2,025) 330 (258) (1,953) Production Costs $8,844 $4,649 $5,520 $19,013 Three months ended June 30, 2002 Rochester Silver Valley Cerro Bayo(1) Total Production of Silver (ounces) 1,637,443 1,383,449 260,543 3,281,435 Cash Costs per ounce $$2.88 $4.14 $1.39 $3.29 Total Cash Costs (thousands) $4,718 $5,728 $363 $10,809 Add/Subtract: Third Party Smelting Costs (243) (1,939) -- (2,182) By-Product Credit 5,337 792 1,873 8,002 Deferred Stripping Adjustment (68) -- -- (68) Change in Inventory 3,499 (271) (3,527) (299) Production Costs $13,243 $4,310 $(1,291) $16,262 (1) The Cerro Bayo mine commenced production in the second quarter of 2002. Six months ended June 30, 2003 Rochester Silver Valley Cerro Bayo(1) Total Production of Silver (ounces) 2,443,046 2,296,467 2,625,202 7,364,715 Cash Costs per ounce $5.28 $4.46 $0.54 $3.33 Total Cash Costs (thousands) $12,900 $10,237 $1,412 $24,549 Add/(Subtract): Third Party Smelting Costs (366) (2,882) (3,021) (6,269) By-Product Credit 9,058 1,324 12,943 23,325 Deferred Stripping Adjustment (161) -- -- (161) Change in Inventory (3,832) 454 (1,175) (4,553) Production Costs $17,599 $9,133 $10,159 $36,891 Six months ended June 30, 2002 Rochester Silver Valley Cerro Bayo(1) Total Production of Silver (ounces) 3,053,210 2,856,991 260,543 6,170,744 Cash Costs per ounce $3.27 $4.05 $1.39 $3.55 Total Cash Costs (thousands) $9,970 $11,582 $363 $21,915 Add/Subtract: Third Party Smelting Costs (484) (4,010) -- (4,494) By-Product Credit 10,107 1,683 1,874 13,664 Deferred Stripping Adjustment (117) -- -- (117) Change in Inventory 6,819 17 (3,528) 3,308 Production Costs $26,295 $9,272 $(1,291) $34,276 (1) The Cerro Bayo mine commenced production in the second quarter of 2002. COEUR D``ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (Unaudited) June 30, December 31, 2003 2002 (In Thousands) ASSETS CURRENT ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents $19,527 $9,093 Short-term investments 301 518 Receivables and prepaid expenses, net 9,309 7,185 Ore on leach pad 14,046 11,082 Metal and other inventory 15,365 14,846 58,548 42,724 PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Property, plant and equipment 80,154 76,194 Less accumulated depreciation (50,957) (49,531) 29,197 26,663 MINING PROPERTIES Operational mining properties 109,574 92,149 Less accumulated depletion (86,304) (71,833) 23,270 20,316 Non-producing and developmental properties 25,364 28,129 Mineral interests 18,825 18,825 67,459 67,270 OTHER ASSETS Non-current ore on leach pad 17,228 15,474 Restricted investments 15,006 13,108 Debt issuance costs, net 1,903 1,034 Marketable securities 522 915 Other 5,950 5,900 40,609 36,431 TOTAL ASSETS $195,813 $173,088 COEUR D``ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (Unaudited) June 30, December 31, 2003 2002 (In Thousands) LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS`` EQUITY CURRENT LIABILITIES Accounts payable $5,545 $5,962 Accrued liabilities 3,886 4,334 Accrued interest payable 1,415 1,610 Accrued salaries and wages 3,339 5,594 Current portion of remediation costs 1,174 926 13 3/8% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due December 2003 9,887 12,735 6 3/8% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due January 2004 5,873 -- Current portion of bank financing 6,617 4,918 37,736 36,079 LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 6 3/8% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due January 2004 -- 55,132 7 1/4% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due October 2005 9,939 11,665 9% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due February 2007, net of discount 34,070 -- Reclamation and mine closure 20,912 14,458 Other long-term liabilities 8,094 8,456 73,015 89,711 COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES SHAREHOLDERS`` EQUITY Common stock, par value $1.00 per share-authorized 250,000,000 shares, issued 151,074,310 and 119,653,267 at June 30, 2003 and December 31, 2002 (1,059,211 shares held in treasury) 151,074 119,653 Additional paid in capital 463,238 420,863 Accumulated deficit (514,842) (479,207) Shares held in treasury (13,190) (13,190) Accumulated other comprehensive loss (1,218) (821) 85,062 47,298 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS`` EQUITY $195,813 $173,088 CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE LOSS COEUR D``ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES Three Months ended June 30,Six Months ended June 30, 2003 2002 2003 2002 (In Thousands, except per share data) REVENUES Sales of metal $25,731 $19,565 $54,732 $36,034 Interest and other 483 2,564 745 3,092 Total revenues 26,214 22,129 55,477 39,126 COSTS and Expenses Production 19,013 16,262 36,891 34,276 Depreciation and depletion 4,679 3,533 9,698 5,411 Administrative and general 2,409 2,464 5,465 4,569 Exploration 1,127 983 2,214 1,611 Pre-feasibility 390 960 766 1,782 Interest 2,015 5,447 4,023 9,848 Other holding costs 945 667 1,568 1,460 Loss on exchange and early retirement of debt 81 2,668 28,188 2,920 Total cost and expenses 30,659 32,984 88,813 61,877 NET LOSS FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS BEFORE TAXES AND CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF CHANGE IN ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLE (4,445) (10,855) (33,336) (22,751) Income tax benefit -- -- (7) -- NET LOSS BEFORE CUMULATIVE EFFECT IN CHANGE IN ACCOUNTING PRINCIPLE (4,445) (10,855) (33,329) (22,751) Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle -- -- (2,306) -- Net loss (4,445) (10,855) (35,635) (22,751) Other comprehensive loss (100) (578) (397) (477) COMPREHENSIVE LOSS $(4,545) $(11,433) $(36,032) $(23,228) BASIC AND DILUTED LOSS PER SHARE: Weighted average number of shares of common stock outstanding 143,888 67,654 138,724 60,008 Net loss per common share before cumulative effect of change in accounting principle $(0.03) $(0.16) $(0.24) $(0.38) Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle -- -- (0.02) -- Net loss per common share $(0.03) $(0.16) $(0.26) $(0.38) COEUR D``ALENE MINES CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS Three and Six Months Ended June 30, 2003 and 2002 (Unaudited) Three Months Ended, Six Months Ended June 30 June 30, 2003 2002 2003 2002 (In Thousands) CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES: Net loss $(4,445) $(10,855) $(35,635) $(22,751) Add (deduct) non-cash items: Depreciation and depletion 4,679 3,533 9,698 5,411 Loss on early retirement of debt 81 2,920 28,188 2,920 Non-cash interest expense 2 4,185 1,103 5,388 Cumulative effect of change in accounting method -- -- 2,306 -- Other charges 491 100 732 917 Changes in Operating Assets and Liabilities: Receivables (964) 864 (2,123) (435) Inventories (2,543) (1,348) (5,237) 1,374 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities (292) 698 (3,369) 1,754 CASH (USED IN) PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES (2,991) 97 (4,337) (5,422) CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES: Purchases of short-term investments (32,203) (782) (72,953) (782) Proceeds from sales of short-term investments 51,790 2,420 71,510 3,684 Expenditures on mining assets (4,447) (3,177) (7,711) (4,731) Other (37) 121 (87) (16) CASH PROVIDED BY (USED IN) INVESTING ACTIVITIES 15,103 (1,418) (9,241) (1,845) CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES: Retirement of debt (22,392) (9,427) (22,392) (9,427) Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt, net of issuance costs (270) 14,050 33,268 14,050 Proceeds from issuance of common stock 11,500 -- 11,500 -- Bank Borrowings on working capital facility 4,447 -- 16,603 -- Payments to Bank on working capital facility (5,126) -- (14,904) -- Other (32) (54) (63) (115) CASH PROVIDED BY (USED IN) FINANCING ACTIVITIES: (11,873) 4,569 24,012 4,508 INCREASE (DECREASE) IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 239 3,248 10,434 (2,759) Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period 19,288 8,707 9,093 14,714 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $19,527 $11,955 $19,527 $11,955

During the first half of 2003, holders of $2.8 million of the Series I 13 3/8% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes due December 31, 2003 (the "Series I 13 3/8% Notes") voluntarily converted such notes, in accordance with original terms, into approximately 2.1 million shares of common stock. In addition, 0.1 million shares of common stock were issued as payment for $0.2 million of interest expense on the Series I 13 3/8% Notes.

During the first half of 2003, the Company repurchased $26.9 million and $1.7 million principal amount of its outstanding 6 3/8% and 7 1/4% Convertible Subordinated Debentures, respectively, in exchange for 16.9 million shares of common stock and recorded a loss on exchange and early retirement of debt of approximately $28.2 million. In addition, 0.6 million shares of common stock were issued as payment for $0.9 million of interest expense as part of the transaction. In conjunction with the issuance of the 9% Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes, the Company also issued 0.6 million shares of common stock for partial payment of offering costs of $1.0 million.

During the first half of 2003, the Company issued 1.2 million shares of common stock in conjunction with its long-term incentive program.

During the 2nd quarter of 2002, the Company repurchased $10.3 million, $0.8 million and $0.3 million principal amount of its outstanding 6%, 6-3/8% and 7-1/4% Convertible Subordinated Debentures, respectively, in exchange for 11.9 million shares of common stock and recorded a loss on retirement of debt of approximately $2.7 million. In addition, holders of $10.3 million of the Series I Notes voluntarily converted such Notes, under the terms of the indenture, into approximately 7.7 million shares of common stock. The Company also issued 2.7 million shares of common stock as payment of $4.2 million of accrued interest on the 13 3/8% Notes.

During the first half of 2002, the Company repurchased $13.8 million, $0.8 million and $0.3 million principal amount of its outstanding 6%, 6-3/8% and 7-1/4% Convertible Subordinated Debentures, respectively, in exchange for 15.3 million shares of common stock and recorded a loss on retirement of debt of approximately $2.9 million. In addition, holders of $16.0 million of the Series I Notes voluntarily converted such Notes, under the terms of the indenture, into approximately 12.8 million shares of common stock. The Company also issued 2.7 million shares of common stock as payment of $4.2 million of accrued interest on the 13 3/8% Notes.

Coeur d`` Alene Mines Corporation

© PR Newswire

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.derivatecheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=5&pa…

24.07.2003, 10:12 Uhr

Gold, Longs absichern

Deutsche Bank

Nachdem der Goldpreis per Dienstag noch an der avisierten Widerstandsebene bei 353.20 USD verharrte und die bis dahin doch bereits recht beeindruckend verlaufende Reaktion auf den vorangegangenen Abwärtstrend (-kanal) gut „verdaute“, setzte er per gestern mit einem beeindruckenden Satz seine Reaktion fort und nähert sich nun der nächst höher gelegenen, potentiellen Zielmarke bei 365 USD an, so Uwe Wagner, Händler bei der Deutschen Bank.



Aus technischer Sicht sei die Reaktion noch absolut intakt. Die Handelsexperte verweist hier jedoch auf eine ähnliche markttechnische Verfassung (kurzfristig überkauft), wie im Kursverlauf EUR/USD. Aktuelles Unterstützungsniveau sei jetzt der Bereich um 353.20 USD.

In der praktischen Konsequenz gelte es nun auch hier, bestehende spekulative Trading-Long-Positionen, die in Erwartung einer weiterführenden Reaktion aufgebaut worden wäre, jetzt mit angepassten Stop-Kursen abzusichern.

[Wavetrader]

#6408 von Wavetrader 14.07.03 12:58:27 Beitrag Nr.: 10.096.462 10096462
Gold in Euro sieht jeden Tag bullisher aus, da die 300-Marke nachhaltig verteidigt wird! Wenn GD-100 geknackt werden, könnte es kurzfristig ähnlich wie beim Silberpreis laufen.

#6504 von Wavetrader 22.07.03 12:33:58 Beitrag Nr.: 10.183.000 10183000
By the way: Bei 310 sollte nicht Schluss sein

#6510 von ThaiGuru 23.07.03 04:26:12 Beitrag Nr.: 10.191.434 10191434
Vielleicht holt sich Gold in Euro gerechnet schon bald die gelbe Linie?
-----

Diese Linie (gemeint ist die GD200) wurden soeben getestet! (siehe Tageschart)

Sie verläuft nämlich bei 317 Euro!

Und das ist auch diejenige Parallele, die ich mit dem Silberpreis zog! Er stieß nach Durchbruch der GD100 ebenfalls sofort zur GD200. Und stieg, wie wir jetzt wissen, nach einem kurzen Rücksetzer kräftigst darüber!

Besonders beachtlich ist, dass wir das bullische Muster von Gold und Silber inmitten einer noch intakten Dow/Nasdaq-Rallye erleben, ein Zeichen für erhebliche relative Stärke!

[niemandweiss]

Der Widerstandszone liegt bei 363, entweder wurde diese gerade annnähernd geknackt und es gibt ein neues Downmove oder ...

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/030724/43056.html

Press Release Source: Durban Roodepoort Deep

Stronger Rand Shaves DRD Revenue by R42 Million

Thursday July 24, 8:59 am ET

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, July 24, 2003 (PRIMEZONE) -- Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited (DRD) (NasdaqSCROOY - News) (LondonURJQ.L - News):

HIGHLIGHTS


- Record production (21,219 ounces) and profits at Tolukuma
- Cash costs down 1.2% in Rand unit terms
- Rationalisation of North West Operations
- Inclusion into XAU Index

``Production maintained, unit costs lower, but -- A 7% strengthening of the Rand against the US Dollar and a consequent 8% drop in the Rand gold price received had shaved Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited`s revenue by more than R42 million in the quarter ended 30 June, 2003,`` said Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Mark Wellesley-Wood today at a briefing on the company`s results for the quarter and year-end.

While gold production was virtually unchanged, cash costs in absolute terms were reduced by R12.2 million and in unit terms by 1.2%. The strength of the Rand, however, had taken the cost per ounce in US Dollar terms above the current gold price to US$352 per ounce. This situation was untenable, Wellesley-Wood said, and had led to the company`s decision to declare a 60-day review at its North West Operations, announced earlier this week.

Group capital expenditure for the quarter was a record US$5.2 million (R40.6 million) excluding recoupments, but all capex programmes are now under review due to the low Rand gold price.

Work on the Argonaut project involved expenditure of R0.3 million but spending on this has also been curtailed in view of the RandÂÂ`s strength.Looking ahead, Wellesley-Wood said the immediate future would depend on the trend in the Rand/Dollar exchange rate and the outcome of the North West Operations review. ``While I know that management will do its utmost to preserve the economic future of these assets, equally DRD will not permit persistent losses at any of its operations.``

Earnings for the quarter declined to US$0.7 million (US$3.2 million), and after allowing for increased depreciation and a US$12.5 million write-down on assets and investments, the net operating loss was US$12.2 million.ShareholdersÂÂ` equity increased to US$53.2 million, and cash and equivalents were US$45.7 million, largely representing the unexpended balance of the convertible note proceeds.

At the year-end, DRD had audited proven and probable ore res…

With effect from 18 August 2003, the company would be included as a constituent of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, Wellesley-Wood announced.

Tolukuma

Tolukuma in Papua New Guinea, having produced a record 21 219 ounces in the quarter under review, had established itself as a consistent gold producer with ore production now deriving from at least six vein sources, Wellesley-Wood said.

``Grades continue to improve due to mining of the high grade…

The Zine vein, he said, as well as the Miliahamba Deeps, will be drilled for strike extension in the current quarter. ``Building on our success at Tolukuma, we are engaged in a number of initiatives to implementour Australasian growth strategy.``

Blyvooruitzicht

Production at Blyvooruitzicht was affected both by a blocked ore pass in the 1A Sub Shaft and poorer grades from the operationÂÂ`s surface sources.While approximately 20 000 tonnes of ore are locked up underground due to the ore pass problem, it is expected that the contained gold will be recovered in the current quarter.

Lower surface grades are likely to continue to December 2003, at which time feed from the higher grade Slimes Dam Project will replace current sources.

North West Operations

The company`s North West Operations had been the subject of considerable management attention over the past three months, Wellesley-Wood said.Measures taken had included a service-sharing synergy exercise with Blyvooruitzicht, a reduction in overhead, a re-evaluation of the plant configuration, the removal of 3,000 contract workers, a renewed focus on grade control and the opening up of new blocks of ground.

``However, surface sources have been rendered uneconomical b…

Crown Gold Recoveries (CGR)

At Crown Gold Recoveries (40% owned and managed by DRD), the ERPM mine had recovered from the fire in February and the production build-up was on track, Wellesley-Wood said.

CGR had secured funding of US$22 million (R170 million) from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), which would be applied to reducing ERPM`s pumping costs and re-treating the Cason Dump.

The dump`s retreatment, Wellesley-Wood said, was expected to yield 30 000 ounces of gold production annually over seven years.

Shareholder Value Recovery Programme

The company was pursuing litigation against various parties, including certain former directors and officers, for recovery of lost shareholder value, Wellesley-Wood said.

During the quarter under review, an ex-parte Anton Pillar order against DRD had been successfully overturned and the companyÂÂ`s claim for its lost Continental Goldfields investment was upheld in the West Australian courts. Also, actions regarding the issue of claims for loss from the defunct Rawas mine in Indonesia had been completed.

``Our total programme now covers claims of approximately US$22 million (R160 million) relative to, but not comparable with, the US$80 million (R590 million) written off in the 2000 financial year,`` he said.



Contact:
Durban Roodepoort Deep, Limited
Ilja Graulich
[phone] / 7826 (office)
[phone] (mobile)

Roth Investor Relations, Inc.
Michelle Roth
[phone]


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Durban Roodepoort Deep

[ThaiGuru]

[silverpwd]

Alles aktienmässiges rausgekippt, samt Fonds , auch Thailand.
Bestand:
Nikkei Calls. JGB Futs Short.
DAX Puts. Bund Fut. long.
GOLD Futs long. Und Silber Calls sowieso.

So, nächster Zyklus..

[macvin]

@silverpwd

Kann ich eigentlich alles nachvollziehen. Aber warum Bund Future long???

macvin

[ThaiGuru]

Es sieht so aus, als ob das Washingtoner Abkommen, das die Goldverkäufe der wichtigsten europäischen Zentralbanken begrenzt, doch verlängert werden soll!

Gruss

ThaiGuru





Zentralbanken die das Abkommen unterzeichnet hatten:

Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Banca d`Italia
Banque de France
Banco do Portugal
Schweizerische Nationalbank
Banque Nationale de Belgique
Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Deutsche Bundesbank
Banco de España
Bank of England
Suomen Pankki
De Nederlandsche Bank
Central Bank of Ireland
Sveriges Riksbank
European Central Bank

Der Inhalt des Abkommens:

1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.


2. The above institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.


3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tonnes and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tonnes.


4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.


5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years

Halbzeit Bericht dieses Washingthoner Abkommens:

Im PDF Format!

http://www.gold.org/value/official/washington/pdf/WAGFinalha…

Die offiziellen Zahlen vom July 2003 zu den Gold Reserven der einzelnen Zentralbanken des Washingthoner Abkommens. !! Achtung !! Diese Zahlen stimmen nachweislich zu einem erheblichen Teil nicht, wie GATA klar belegen konnte, da die Zentralbanken zum Teil auch verliehenes, oder geswaptes Gold als Bestände aufführen, wie wenn sie noch da wären, obwohl dieses Gold nicht mehr bei den ZB`s vorhanden ist, und faktisch auch nicht mehr physisch wiederbringbar ist.

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/archive/pdf/july_…


Update April 24th 2003

Six countries have sold gold under the Agreement: Austria; Germany; the Netherlands; Portugal; Switzerland; and the United Kingdom. 400 tonnes were sold in the first WAG year, approximately 404 (footnote) in the second year and 393 in the third. By March 25th 2003, almost half way through WAG year 4, a further 211 tonnes had been sold bringing the total to 1,408 tonnes.

Click here http://www.gold.org/value/official/washington/pdf/WAG%20sit%… for a table showing gold sold and likely future sales.

European Monetary Union countries

Austria has sold 90 tonnes – 30 in each of the first three years of the Agreement. It is thought that the gold was sold forward with the sale announced when delivery was due. It has now completed its sales programme under the current Agreement.

Germany sold 12 tonnes of gold in 2001, during the second year of the Agreement, for the purposes of minting a commemorative gold coin for the Deutsche Mark, and a further 11 tonnes in 2002 for the purpose of minting a gold coin to commemorate the replacement of the Deutsche Mark by the euro. A further three tonnes were sold in May 2003.

The Netherlands announced in December 1999 that it intended to sell 300 tonnes of gold during the five years of the Agreement. 100 tonnes were sold in the first year, around 27 in the second and around 9 in the third. In the current (2002-2003) year the Netherlands has sold 33 tonnes to date (March 25th 2003), thus leaving 131 tonnes to come before September 2004. The Netherlands sells its gold into the market. No advance announcement is made of any sale.

Portugal sold 15 tonnes in December 2002, 30 tonnes in February 2003 and 45 tonnes in March and April 2003. All these sales resulted from option agreements entered into in 1997 and 1998.

The sales by Portugal had not been announced previously.Since they were the result of options taken out before the Agreement was signed - the exercise of which was dependent on price movements and market conditions – it would not have been certain in September 1999 that the sales would have been made. This does not, however, affect the overall limit of 2,000 tonnes of combined sales during the five years of the Agreement.

The European Central Bank publishes each week on its website http://www.ecb.int – see under press releases and then weekly financial statements) - normally on Tuesday afternoon - a balance sheet of the combined holdings of the Eurosystem central banks. This includes gold holdings valued in euros and enables changes in the gold holdings of these central banks to be monitored.

Countries outside European Monetary Union
Following an initiative by the then President of Switzerland and President of the Swiss National Bank, a Swiss expert group announced proposals in 1997 for a sale of that part of the country’s gold reserves that were deemed to be no longer necessary for monetary policy purposes. This was to be made possible by a breaking of the link between the country’s gold reserves and the amount of currency in circulation. Along with other constitutional changes this was agreed in a referendum in April 1999. One of the changes was that the new constitution mandated that Switzerland should in future hold a part of its reserves in gold. Sales of “surplus” gold – deemed to be 1,300 tonnes, around half the total held in September 1999 – commenced in May 2000 and the Swiss will attempt to sell the bulk of this during the five years of the Agreement. 120 tonnes were sold during the first year, 200 during the second and 283 in the third. The Swiss have announced that they will sell 283 during the fourth WAG year. Gold has been sold regularly into the market and gold holdings are announced three times a month.

No further sales will take place after end 2004.

The UK announced in May 1999 that it intended to sell around 415 tonnes of its gold reserves. In the event it sold 395 tonnes. These were sold by auction every two months from July 1999 to March 2002. 25 tonnes were sold in each of the first 11 auctions and 20 tonnes in the final six. The first two auctions took place before the announcement of the Agreement but the remaining 345 tonnes were sold under its auspices. The UK was unusual in selling gold by the auction method which had not then been used for gold since IMF and US gold auctions in the 1970s. Other countries which have sold gold recently have sold into the market (sometimes via an intermediary such as the Bank for International Settlements) without prior announcement of the actual sale – either through the exercise of options or by straight sales.

The UK’s sales programme ended in March 2002 and the UK gove…

The UK Treasury’s review and assessment of its gold sales programme can be seen at:

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/mediastore/otherfiles/GoldRese…

Footnote

It is not possible to be completely precise with respect to …

Die Zukunft des Washingtoner Abkommens:

The Future of the Washington Agreement

The Agreement expires in September 2004. No announcement has yet been made as to whether it will be renewed; however, given the success of the current Agreement it is widely expected that it will be renewed in some form.

The president of the Bundesbank, Ernst Welteke, has publicly stated that he feels it should be renewed and at least one other senior central bank official has indicated a personal opinion that renewal is likely. The precise amount of sales and/or derivative activity would not necessarily remain the same and would doubtless be determined in the light of market conditions at the time.

In a renewed Agreement it is expected that Greece, which joined the Eurozone in 2001, would be added to the list of signatories. It is possible that other central banks will also join in.

It is thought unlikely that the UK will seek to sell any further gold during a second Agreement. Switzerland is likely to have sold nearly all the 1,300 tonnes proposed; it may sell a further small amount during the period of a second Agreement if it wishes to complete the full amount but it is thought unlikely to sell further.

Germany, which sold small amounts of gold for coin manufacture during the current Agreement, may be a more significant seller during a second Agreement. The matter is currently under debate in Germany since the president of the Bundesbank, Ernst Welteke, raised the issue in February 2002, stating his personal view that Germany should seek an option to sell some of its gold during a second Agreement period.

The issue of whether Germany sells more of its gold is also an issue for the European Central Bank. Eurozone members cannot make transactions in foreign reserve assets (which include gold) above certain – unpublished – limits without the approval of the ECB’s Governing Council.



http://www.gold.org/value/official/washington/index.html

[silverpwd]

#macvin

Am unteren langfristigen Trendkanal.
Bodenbildung bei ca. 14,75.
Reif für ne Korrektur.
Die Medien hauten ganz schön rein in letzter Zeit vonwegen die bösen Rentenmärkte.
Liquidität der Rentenfonds (Spitzenplätze seit 12 Monaten)
Antikorrealation und save heaven zum DAX.
Ausserdem habe ich seltenst erlebt, dass irgendetwas so eine Spitze macht und dann einfach runterknallt.
Bei ca 117 wird aber vertickt, wenns dort der geringste Hauch von Schwäche zu sehen ist.

[Leon der Profi]

Kurze Frage mal: wie kommt man an die Gold/Euro-Charts bei der Dresdner, die hier immer eingestellt werden? Braucht man ein login dafür? Ich find`s einfach nicht auf der Seite.
Ansonsten benutz ich dieses Applet:
http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/plot.html das macht aber nur Schlusskurse und keine Candlesticks...

[ThaiGuru]

July 24 - Gold $361.90 up $3.20 - Silver $5.09 up 3 cents

Gold, Silver And The Shares Surge On

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Now I`m going to tell you something I`ve kept to myself for years. None of you ever knew George Gipp. He was long before your time, but you all know what a tradition he is at Notre Dame. And the last thing he said to me, "Rock," he said, "sometime when the team is up against it and the breaks are beating the boys, tell them to go out there with all they`ve got and win just one for the Gipper. I don`t know where I`ll be then, Rock," he said, "but I`ll know about it and I`ll be happy."
--Knute Rockne, All-American

GO GATA!!!!

This is more like it. After years of tediously boring trading action, silver and gold are back on the fast track. Today was a wild one in both the silver and gold pits. Both markets were hit hard early with gold falling almost $3 and silver dropping 7 cents. Both came roaring right back.

Gold was hit hard early after the jobless claims number was much less than expected. The dollar retreated a bit too on the news. Of course, that number is almost meaningless for the gold price. It didn’t take traders too long to figure that one out. Gold stormed back, moving up $2 on the day. However, when a large increase in the open interest (up 8323 to 201,171) was announced, Goldman Sachs started selling like crazy, taking gold down more than $1.50 on the session. GS (Hannibal Lecter) was called in by The Gold Cartel to do what they could to take gold lower after such a big day yesterday. It didn’t work. Buyers swarmed all over bullion and took it up over $5 at one point before profit taking set in.

The "gold action" could not be better. This kind of volatility means there are huge buyers out there willing to take on the crooks. That is what the large increase in open interest is telling us. It also means The Gold Cartel is not going to give up without a major fight. The best analogy I can think of is to compare it to an aging professional heavyweight boxing champion. The cabal is fading away, but it can still throw a mean punch and is not something to be taken lightly. The Gold Cartel is going to have to be taken out of the boxing ring on a stretcher after a knockout by free market forces. It will not go quietly into the night.

Another positive: Gold traded with lightning speed today, rallying 50 cents to a $1 at a pop at certain times. It won’t be long before it is moving in $1 to $2 pops at a time. What excitement we have ahead of us!

One more plus was gold rallied sharply off its lows even though the dollar stayed in the plus column until late in the day when it closed down one tick.

Silver streaked all the way up to $5.15 before settling back. Spent a little time talking to Mike Bolser about silver. We spoke about the Chinese selling ending as a possible catalyst for this sudden burst in the silver price. We were told weeks ago it was coming to an end. Two points to consider:

*If it has been the silver coming out of China which has kept the silver price so low the past couple of years, they must have made some kind of deal with the US for some other benefit for China. The Chinese are too smart a group of traders to dump silver so low when they could reap much higher prices. Perhaps that is how the rigging of the silver price was effected?

*It is interesting to note the price of silver took off right after the US made noises about the Chinese letting their currency rise. Greenspan spoke of it publicly too. Could the sudden rise in the price of silver be China’s response to unwanted jawboning from the US about their currency?

On that note, the following hit the tape early this afternoon from Market News:

July 24 BRUSSELS – Deputy finance ministers from the Group of Seven Industrialized nations have discussed china’s exchange rate regime in recent weeks, but there is not yet a consensus on how the undervalued currency should be tackled, according to well-placed sources…..

Where there is smoke, there is usually fire. The pressure on China is likely to be intense behind the scenes. If the "renminbi" is revalued higher, it will be inflationary and gold friendly. It also should stimulate gold demand in China by a fair amount.

Sentiment in many quarters suggests gold has a way to go on the upside:

Hey Bill, Last week I sent an email to 700 people that have shown an interest in buying investor gold coins. I called for a bottom in gold and suggested $400+ was very likely by the end of August, giving all the bullish reasons you have been emphasizing over and over.

Yesterday, I emailed everyone again suggesting the bottom had been confirmed and that the greatest minds I know are looking for gold to go sharply higher right away. (Great minds that have made tens of millions of dollars investing in the past). All in all, I got 4 emails asking me to delete them from the email list. Not one person expressed an interest in buying coins or gold of any kind.

Unbelievable! The downside for the coins is still relatively small and the upside is potentially enormous, even if gold only goes to $425-$500. (Obviously, I am looking for a much higher number than $500). Given that the coins tend to lag a little behind spot gold and that it is almost a certainty they are going to pop next week, I was very surprised not to hear from a large number of people. This tells me that most investors just don`t care or need to see higher prices before they get excited. This means that gold has a LONG WAY to go on the upside.

Just like in the old days when we ultimately cleaned up in the copper market, but in the beginning stages it was like pulling teeth to get most people motivated . It wasn`t until the price of copper doubled and excited investors were lined up outside the door that it finally topped out. Looks like good resistance at $370. When gold takes that out, look for $408-$420. Exciting times ahead. Keep up the great work! Brother Tim
--
Tim Murphy
1-800-289-2646 ext 1019
Swiss America Trading Corp
Phoenix, AZ
[e-mail]

[hpoth]

@ Thai Guru,

Wir laufen jetzt in den nächsten Tagen bestimmt in eine Korekturphase,bei meinem Programm ist der Stochastics fast bei 100 und da drehte bisher immer der Aufwärtstrend,Silber ist erst bei ca 70,Newmont Mining ist auch fast bei 100,London FT Gold Minen ist bei ca 75, obwohl die meisten Goldminen noch billig sind ( Index durch
Goldpreis ergibt 3.75 liegt noch im Mittelfeld)Was meinst Du? mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, July 24 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $$6.46, PM $ 3.61, with world gold at $359.60 and $359. The AM reading is suspect; the PM reading is slightly below legal import point. On the previous two days the levels were:

AM World Gold PM World Gold
Wed: $5.84 $352 $4.58 $353.85
Tues: $4.83 $352.15 $5.37 $352.50

All of which were above legal import point. Reuters has carried two useful stories this week, from Turkey and India, documenting the apparent fact that the February – May downswing in the world gold was associated with a remarkable acceleration of offtake by these key physical consumers. This, of course, is what the premiums have been indicating.

There seems to have been a positive shift in the propensity to consume gold – the Turkish story cited on- shipment to Middle Eastern target countries – which in turn seems to have given rise to an ill-judged short position in the West. When gold passed $320 early this year, the physical market fell away: $350 has not had the same effect this time.

The idea that there is or was a large short interest in the market is certainly supported by the morning’s Asian action, in some ways more remarkable than yesterday in NY. On the opening gold immediately moved above $360, and essentially stayed a couple of dollars above the NY close until well after Japan closed. TOCOM volume exploded, up 109% to the equivalent of 81,948 Comex contracts, the active contract was up 28 yen at the close and $ US gold went out up $1.70 from NY. Yet open interest fell the equivalent of 3,584 Comex lots, the yen did little, and the Nikkei News service found nothing gold related worthy of comment. (NY yesterday was estimated to have traded 72,000 contracts.)

Increasingly it appears that Western speculative interests, in emergency situations, have resort to TOCOM to reverse bad positions, a relatively new development most notably seen on the spike to $390 in early February.

If this is the case, Refco is probably right to close its’ brilliantly timed long trade established at $343 two weeks ago. With MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus up to 73%, a pause is quite likely. However, the behaviour of the physical market suggests it will soon adjust to these new prices.

Next comment next Monday, back in CT. Ugh.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[hpoth]

Der von Vane übermittelte Bullish Consenus is up to 73%,na ja der signaliesirt ja auch schon einiges.mfg hpoth
NB aber wie geagt Korekturen sind immer gesund für den Markt und keine Panikmache.mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Die Lease Raten für Silber sind heute weiter gestiegen!

[ThaiGuru]

Ja wird`s endlich!

[Wavetrader]

"With MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus up to 73%, a pause is quite likely"

Der "WO-Bullish-Consensus" liegt nach unserer gestrigen Umfrage fast auf gleicher Höhe, 75% der Umfrageteilnehmer gehen nämlich von steigenden Goldkursen aus (auf Monatssicht), nicht schlecht diese Übereinstimmung Letzten Monat waren es beispielsweise nur 52%.

Die Frage ist halt, wann denn ein Wert erreicht wird, der "zu hoch" ist. Oft finden gerade die stärksten Bewegungen einer Anlageform in solchen Wendepunkten des Sentiments statt, daher ist es nicht immer einfach, damit zu arbeiten.

@Leon der Profi: dresdner-privat.de -> Kurse & Märkte -> Geld & Devisen

[silverpwd]

Jetzt entscheidet sich der Schwachsinn bei Gold.
Durch die 365 ohne Korrektur, würde einige auf den falschen Fuss erwischen.
Mir solls recht sein.

[Wavetrader]

Und hier noch mal die Erläuterung der Bullenquote von der Homepage von MarketVane:

-----
Our point is this: trader sentiment determines the course of the markets. If enough traders are bullish, even for the wrong reasons, then prices will rise. You don’t need to know why those traders are bullish, only that they are willing to buy and drive prices higher. That’s where the Bullish Consensus® comes in. The Bullish Consensus® measures the futures market sentiment each day by following the trading recommendations of leading Commodity Trading Advisors. The Bullish Consensus® can allow you to trade with the trend each day until a Contrary Opinion situation develops.
-----

Die führen ihre Umfragen übrigens auch für die berüchtigten Schweinebäuche durch.

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

Posting #6566

Ich bin mir da nicht so sicher, dass wir beim Gold jetzt in eine grössere Korrekturphase rein laufen. Mindestens dann nicht, falls man die neuesten Aussagen von Mahendra zugrunde legt.

Nur, wie Du bereits schon erklärtest, falls wir entgegen meiner eigenen Meinung, und der Prophezeiung von Mahendra, jetzt doch schon korrigieren sollten, wäre das auch kein Beinbruch. Warum muss uns der Kerl eigentlich das Saufen, und die saftigen Steaks vermiesen? Danach werden die technischen Indikatoren, wieder neue klare Kaufsignale liefern, die den Goldpreis dann halt etwas später weiter nach oben bringen werden.

A note from Mahendra who is back in Kenya:

Dear Bill,

MAHAYAGNA time is coming near. On Monday I said that I am doing some thing very special. I will post on that soon. Let silver close above $5.16 and gold $362.80.

I hope will do fasting with me, day I will announce. Be vegetarian, no alcohol on that day.

I am still very much hopeful for silver to touch $7.90 and gold $412 in next few months, sure well before 2003 December.

On Tuesday, I called Bill Murphy saying gold touching $400 in next 21 days and he did on his commentary. He believes in me even though many time I was wrong on short term prediction. He was the first person who supported me and introduce me to gold community and metal people.

Once again I thank him for his support and my followers should do same.

Like I said 200 years before doctors doesn`t had much respect for their work but now they save life`s. Today`s modern and high tech world is optimistic on astrology and its calculation (may be because many astrologer are not doing right practice) but my hard work and research will prove it and this is what I want to do for this great subject of astrology, so people they take it as a science and may start giving respect.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

Mahendra Sharma
[e-mail]
www.mahendraprophecy.com
P.O. Box - 63609
Postal code - 00619 Muthaiga,
Nairobi, Kenya

[ThaiGuru]

Diesen Link, sollten sich eigentlich alle an den aktuellen Kursen von Gold Minen interessierten Leser in ihre Favoriten Liste aufnehmen!

http://online.kitco.com/scripts/stocks/miningstocks.pl

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030725/0949000432_1.html

Dow Jones Business News

S African Miners` Union Rejects AngloGold`s Wage Offer

Friday July 25, 9:49 am ET

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South Africa`s National Union of Mineworkers said Friday it has rejected a 10% wage offer from AngloGold Ltd. because the company has refused to budge on raising job grades for its members.

However, AngloGold said the NUM is still to consider its offer on job grading, with a decision on whether it will be accepted due tomorrow.

The NUM issued an official 48-hour strike notice to AngloGold, Gold Fields Ltd. and Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. late Thursday, ahead of strike action due to take place at the start at the night shift Sunday.

AngloGold raised its offer to 10% from 9.75% in an attempt to avert strike action, but the NUM turned it down.

The NUM, which has been negotiating with the country`s gold and coal producers since May, initially called for a 20% pay hike but this was rejected as unrealistic. The NUM later lowered its wage demands to around 10%.

Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold have said that as long as the rand remains strong, future earnings will be severely hit.

The gold producers fear profits could slip by as much as 5% even if they settle for a 10% increase, as wages account for 50% of their total costs.

Meetings are currently in progress with Gold Fields and Harmony, although NUM spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana said Harmony is still struggling to make the final hurdle to 10% from 9.5%.

"AngloGold offered nothing on job grading so the strike still stands," said Lekorotsoana, adding that the main disagreement now with AngloGold was job grading.

The NUM is demanding that all underground drill operators be bumped up to Grade 6, irrespective of experience.

However, Steve Lenahan, a spokesman at AngloGold, said they`re waiting for the NUM to get back to them on their offer.

"We proposed that Grade 4 workers be bumped up to Grade 5. The NUM leadership said they`d take the proposal to their membership and get back to us tomorrow," said Lenahan.

The Chamber of Mines, an industry-backed body which has been leading the wage negotiations, said Friday that an offer to upgrade machine and rock-drill operators to Grade 5 will severely hurt the gold companies.

Frans Barker, the Chamber`s chief negotiator, estimates this will result in wage increases ranging from 16%-28% for some workers. As they form a substantial portion of the work force, this will have a substantial impact on the overall wage bill.

The Chamber argues that the total wage bill - pay hikes, job gradings and retirement fund contributions - all add up to more than 10%, well above the current inflation rate of 7.7%.

-By Adam Aljewicz, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone]; [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/BUSINESS/07/25/china.gold.reut/i…

China gold miner plans first float

SHANGHAI, China (Reuters) -- China`s Zhongjin Gold Co Ltd says it will launch a $49 million initial public offering on July 30, becoming the first Chinese gold miner to float shares.

The share offer by state-owned Zhongjin, held 88.5percent by top Chinese gold firm National Gold Corp, will allow the Chinese public to invest in a gold firm for the first time when it lists on the Shanghai stock exchange.

Zhongjin will issue 100 million yuan-denominated A shares open to Chinese and selected overseas institutions at 4.05 yuan ($0.489) per share, less than its initial target of up to $85 million announced in February.

The issue price represents a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times its 2002 earnings of 0.2023 yuan per share. After the float, 35.7 percent of the company will be in public hands.

China is one of the world`s top five gold producers and a major consumer of the precious metal. It has been taking steps to open up its gold market to try to boost transparency.

Last October, the government set up the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China`s first gold exchange in the communist era, to allow producers to trade gold.

Before the launch of the exchange, the central People`s Bank of China maintained rigid control by fixing prices and acting as the sole intermediary between domestic gold buyers and sellers.

China produces about 180 tonnes of gold a year, chiefly from mines in the northeast and northwest of the country.

Tianjin-based Zhongjin, which mines, smelts and processes gold, said it would use the 405 million yuan raised through the offering to help its expansion.

It now produces about 10 tonnes of gold a year.

Zhongjin posted net profit of 9.88 million yuan in the first three months of 2003, against 36.41 million in 2002 and 34.92 million in 2001.

Galaxy Securities was appointed the lead underwriter.

[ThaiGuru]

July 25 - Gold $362/70 up 80 cents - Silver $5.07 down cents

Gold Shares Continue To Streak Higher

"Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her. Bu… Voltaire (1694-1778)

Gold has rallied straight up the past seven days from $340 to $363. The run higher has been sharp, uninterrupted and follows the "killer move" down in the HUI a week ago Wednesday, which blew out a lot of weak longs.

Gold remains explosive, but has to put up with the crooks who are clearly going all out to prevent gold from taking out $370. The open interest rose a whopping 12,118 contracts yesterday to 213,289. The specs are piling in. With that sort of increase, gold should have rallied $10. It also tells us how committed The Gold Cartel is to keep gold from breaking out.

The talk on the floor today centered on the Commitment of Traders Report to be released after the close. It is expected to show a large increase in the spec position, which won’t include the huge 20,000 contract increase of the Wednesday and Thursday trading sessions. The shorts believe the sharp build in the spec open interest is bearish. (The report revealed a large spec position swing of 12,000 contracts, which is not as much as some market observers had expected).

Does the increasingly large spec position mean the gold price goes down from here and will fail to take out $370 on this assault? Not necessarily. The fundamentals are extraordinarily bullish and it is inevitable gold is going to blow sky high with the commercials short. It has to happen that way. We will get a Commercial Signal Failure as they get shorter and shorter on a gold price explosion. You certainly are not going to have the specs go short when gold approaches and takes out $370. It is important to keep in mind that a fair amount of the gold short position is The Gold Cartel doing all they can to keep the price of gold from taking off and attracting too much attention. When gold blows, it is a guarantee they will be mega-short and will be carried out!

Then, there is the matter of a potential miner’s strike in S…

Workers unhappy with Harmony, Gold Fields offers

Friday July 25, 11:25 am ET

JOHANNESBURG, July 25 (Reuters) - South African gold producers Gold Fields (GFIJ.J) and Harmony Gold (HARJ.J) boosted wage offers in last-ditch talks on Friday ahead of a planned strike on Sunday, but workers said the hikes were not enough.

Harmony increased its wage offer to 9.5 percent from a previous 9.0 percent while Gold Fields` offer rose to 9.5-9.75 percent from 9.0-9.5, Chief Negotiator Frans Barker of employers group the Chamber of Mines told Reuters.
The world`s second biggest gold producer AngloGold had offered a 10 percent increase earlier on Friday, but all three offers were contingent on workers no longer demanding additional improvements in job grading, Barker added.

The National Union of Mineworkers` spokesman Moferefere Lekorotsoana told Reuters the offers were still inadequate, failing to meet union demands for a 10 percent wage hike and a sharp boost in job gradings for machine workers.

–END-

I can’t imagine there actually being a strike. Most of these disputes are settled at the last minute. What would be a stroke of genius is for the major SA gold producers to bring on a strike. A strike that lasted longer than a week would devastate The Gold Cartel as gold would blow through $370.

The dollar was very weak today, but had little effect on gold, which is running up on its own along with silver. The dollar fell to 95.12, down .47, while the euro rose .42 to 114.91.

One fine looking gold chart:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Silver took a breather today. Very normal after such a dramatic price increase. No telling what silver could do on the upside in the days ahead.

Silver:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

Gold and silver REMAIN in explosive mode, but it is critical…

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (9284, up 172) roared ahead. So did the DOG (1730, up 29). I wouldn’t touch this market with a ten-foot pole, but being short has been a bugger.

The economic news was constructive:

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. June durable goods orders rose the most since January, led by cars, aircraft and machinery, a government report showed.

Bookings for items made to last at least three years jumped 2.1 percent to $172.5 billion, following little change in May, the Commerce Department said in Washington. The rise, almost twice as much as economists expected, matched the January increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders gained 1.4 percent, also the most in five months, after rising 0.9 percent.

–END-

But, the big picture looks bleak:

Friday, 25 July, 2003, 06:18 GMT 07:18 UK

California`s debt `nearly junk`

The California`s state debt has been downgraded to two points above junk status by US credit ratings agency Standard & Poor`s (S&P).

S&P slashed its rating on California`s $27bn of debts as Republicans succeeded in forcing a vote on 7 October on whether Democrat governor Gray Davis should keep his job.
California, the richest state in the US, faces economic turmoil unless it can pass a state budget.

–END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser last evening:

Hi Bill:

Here is the latest currencies and gold update for your review.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2003/CCG7.jpg

It shows that gold`s recent move upwards is not associated with a simple currency balancing effort as gold has outperformed the Euro- especially today. It has moved on its own-, a long-awaited event.

The Dollar Index Value of Gold stands at 323, exactly where it was on Dec 5th the date SECTREAS O`Neill departed. His abrupt departure heralded two months of rising gold prices. There is another significance to that date.

It was the last time the dollar and the Euro stood at parity. We stand at another watershed moment.

Best,
Mike

Hi Bill:

The Fed has added only $2.5 Billion today in over weekend repos. That action leaves the repo pool total at $19.75 Billion. I had thought they would add $4 Billion but it seems they are moving things more rapidly downward.

Yesterday`s end of day DOW swoon may yet be repeated today only with a further fall as the pool is getting very low, especially with the dollar leaking downward. I stand by my call that the DOW today will be down at the close [It`s up a bit at 35 now-11:50AM EDT].

Monday still looks to be a large down day.

Now that we have visor, helmet, safety belt on...let`s have a sip of Gatorade and enjoy the fun.

Be ready for anything.

Mike

Chuck checked in this morning:

My guess would be that the golds and silver will take a rest today. I.e. unless this market falls out of bed. With the pressure on rates, I think we are very near a panic. Every time the market sells off, the golds go the other way. From paper to gold.

I don`t know how you can stand listening and reading the drivel that you have to quote from the press. It`s really scary how ignorant they are. Between that the unthinkable world events coming up, it`s easy to see gold in the thousands over the next few years. But it won`t be enjoyable.

It is very difficult to keep down the shares here. Almost all of the golds and silvers are moving relentlessly up. At a point where they are all in formation, I think there will be the blow out, and soon. Newmont and FCX continues to lead. Check out Freeport today and for the week.

Also, the bonds and dollar can`t rally more than a day, at best. The fundamentals are catching up to the technicals. I am still amazed that the market can rally every opening and the suckers still bite the earnings reports bait. Not a word about the effect of the rising of rates, the weakness in the dollar and the move in gold and its shares.

I almost forgot to mention that the NY Times yesterday had nary a word on gold and silver. Nada. But it did have about two pages on the circus at AOL. "All the news that`s fit to print." Like the rest of the media-irrelevant. See you later.

Chuck

And late this afternoon:

Isn`t it amazing that the past two Fridays have brought 138 Dow gains and today`s run both closing to the penny on their highs? Reeks! Given this week`s upward pressure on the entire precious metal complex, the selling pressure on the dollar in spite of the bounces, and the speculative fury that continues in the junk bonds and stocks, we should see some spectacular moves in many of the junior golds and silvers imminently. Also, expecting GSS to blow out next week again.

Now I can understand your frustration with the manipulators.…

Chuck


From Jim Sinclair:

Friday, July 25, 2003

Dear Gold Community Members,

Here is, in my and Kenny Adams` opinion, the skinny.

Hang on to your hats, gang.

We are on the threshold of a damned big up move in both gold and silver.

The general equities are not the hot hand any longer. Therefore, in my opinion, even on your worst precious metal dog or con-racket junior, shut down on the selling.
You will, I believe, get better prices.

Here`s what Kenny has to say:

* * *

Gold and silver are both making patterns that are normally the preparatory patterns for massive runs up when in a rising bull and leaving a flat chop (or down) when in a bear and leaving an extendedflat chop. In this case, we are in the bull.

What it means technically:

Technical patterns can be expected to frequently move up at near 90-degree angles and then have narrow, sideways, and especially (inside day)corrections lasting only three to five days, followed by further spikes up -- over and over again, until reaching major upside projections.

Such patterns create a major psychological pressure to take profits at each corrective point. However, the corrections seldom fall even to minimum expectations -- nor for the minimum expected length of time -- thereby forcing the trader to have to chase the (apparently premature)resumption of the bull, and frequently having to buy in above the point where the last offsets were taken.

The catch is whether underlying fundamentals will sustain cu…

If precedent is not followed, its potential path will be two-fold:

Either it will be terminated by intervention by way of decree, and the imposition of government into markets, as was the case with silver 20 years ago -- and some 48 years before that, with Roosevelt`sconfiscation of gold -- or it will experience a move even greater than precedent implies.

It will not likely trade only to a match of the late `60s, and again in the `70s and `80s.

If this bull phase is to be greater than precedent, then in its unfolding one should be mindful that had any government ever been thought of as trustworthy, there would have been no need for a Constitution and a Bill of Rights and their specific definition of the proper distance between the state and the individual. One need look no further than to any government`s issuance of fiat (paper money backed by promises that are indistinct) money, in order to determine the exact degree of respect that government has forits citizens.

If this is the edge of and the beginning of a massive rise i…

Equities: The equity indexes have still not given a signal to verify a change in trend to an intermediate bear, and we are in the eighth week of the exhaustionsignal -- which sets a record for each week beyond six weeks of an exhaustion signal without a verification of trend reversal. However, there has not been substantial price appreciation since the exhaustion signal, which continues to serve its intended task very well, being no advantage to the long side.

However , the very near-term current internals in the equity futures strongly indicate that the minor rally to yesterday`s high (tail up/close down) will be the final rally, prior to a roll into further corrective action.

If this is a final rally, I would expect the verification signal of trend change to occur shortly.

* * *

JIM SINCLAIR

www.jsmineset.com http://www.jsmineset.com

KA and JS are not alone in their concern over the stock market:

Dear Bill,

Major crash is coming in stock market from today or any time in next week so investors trade carefully. Metals will stabilize at this level before it makes new high in next week.

Thanks & God Bless

Mahendra

-END-

Silver lease rates & what it means

Bill,

As you know, normally long-term lease rates are higher than short-term rates because more risk is involved with the longer time period. During times when there is a shortage in the spot (physical, immediate delivery) market, short-term rates can invert so as to exceed the long-term rates. This is similar to, or happens in parallel to, backwardation in the futures market. This happened, e.g., right around January 2002 (see 1st chart). From the 2nd chart you can see that the same thing is starting to happen again, although the magnitude of the move (so far) is smaller.

Note that a few of the data points on these charts may be spurious, as we have found that Kitco does not always key in the lease rate data accurately. Nevertheless, the overall picture is pretty clear.

This small piece of evidence seems to corroborate other more important indicators that we are about to experience lift-off.

Marcia

(Charts can be viewed at http://www.kitco.com/charts

Hi Bill:

Although Gold had an outstanding week as did many gold shares, I think the week belongs to Silver which was up about 7.5%. Some of the Silver shares finally woke up. Among the ones I follow here`s how they did.

AVINO Silver .41 to .70 up 70%
CDE 1.48 to 1.85 up 26%
Firs…

None of these are at their 52 week highs. AVINO hit 1.70 last year so it was down 75% before this week.
One other point, very few Gold stocks beat the HUI index this week which was up 15.7%. Why? Because the HUI was helped by it`s silver components. It is not a pure gold stock index.

Cheers, Ed Wener

Without much fanfare, we are watching various markets make impressive moves all at the same time. Bonds have gone almost straight down the past few weeks, while gold and silver and the precious metals share prices have shot straight up over the past 7 trading sessions. Is the action of those three markets linked? I think so. Investors have come to realize what the FED is up to in an attempt to stave off US economic problems.

Meanwhile, the dollar and the stock market have been going sideways.

The HUI is rocking. It roared ahead another 3.57 to 167.03, leaping on the close. The XAU gained 1.48 to 84.27.

One of my favorites, Seabridge Gold, is on a roll. It has le…

So much for the Newmont short:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Newmont closed at $36.29, up 89 cents.

Wait until the gold shares actually receive some commentary …

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


www.lemetropolecafe.com

[jeffery2]

Thai Guru, tu mir den Gefallen und schreib mir keine Boardmails mehr, wenn Du eine Antwort verweigerst. Wenn du Sorgen hast, dann heul Dich hier aus. Ansonsten kommt mir so ein Verhalten sehr merkwürdig ´vor.
J2

[ThaiGuru]

@jeffery2

Werde Dir ganz bestimmt den gewünschten Gefallen nicht gewähren können!

Schreib mal zur Abwechslung wieder was konstruktives.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://62.146.24.165/news.php?show=127788

25.07. 22:36

Goldpreis - Tageschartupdate

(©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)

Goldpreis pro Unze aktuell 362,45 US $

Tageschart Kurzupdate. Nach dem Erreichen unserer 2. Zielmarke gibt es auf dem aktuellen Kursniveau die Möglichkeit eines Kursrücksetzers in Richtung 355 Punkte Unterstützung. Oder aber GOLD zieht kommende Woche direkt durch die 363er US $ Marke hindurch. Bei 366,5 US $ liegt die Schaltstelle für düe weitere kurz- bis mittelfristige Ausrichtung.

Wenn tatsächlich der signifikante Ausbruch über 367 US $ gelingen sollte, ist zunächst (!) ein Erreichen der 390er US $ Marke wahrscheinlich.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=196316&fSection…

SOUTH AFRICA

Mining firms push stocks to strongest close in more than a week

July 26, 2003

By Reuters

Johannesburg - Mining companies such as Anglo American drove stocks to their strongest close in more than a week yesterday after a late slip in the rand lifted sentiment already buoyed by firmer metal prices.

Anglo barrelled 4.7 percent higher to R123.60 after earlier touching a day high of R124.05.

Anglo accounts for around 15 percent of the market`s capitalisation and was the most traded stock by deals.

Its gains helped to kick the all share index up 1.5 percent to 8664.95 points, its highest close since July 16. Volumes improved to more than R2 billion after a thin start to the week, dealers said.

The blue chip Top40 index rose 1.6 percent to 7967.88 points.

Anglo`s rise was helped by subsidiaries Anglo American Platinum (Angloplat) and AngloGold, the world`s biggest platinum producer and South Africa`s top gold producer respectively.

Angloplat rushed 3.4 percent higher to R245 after spot platinum tested its highest level since mid-March. But Impala Platinum ebbed 1.4 percent to R463 as investors switched between the stocks, dealers said.

"There are effectively really only two platinum stocks in this market so people are often moving between the two," said one trader
.

Gold shares powered 2.3 percent higher, led by gains in Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD), which added 2.5 percent to reach R18.65.

AngloGold put on 1.2 percent to reach R253 and Gold Fields leapt 3.7 percent to R8.66.

Bullion prices have climbed nearly $20 an ounce over the past week, partly spurred by worries about a possible strike by local miners over pay. Late yesterday in London, gold was at $359.10, which was a gain of $2.70 on the same time the previous day.

DRD earlier reported widening losses at two gold mines it is considering shutting down as a strong rand kept costs high at those marginal operations.

The cash operating loss at DRD`s North West operations widened to $4.8 million in the quarter to June from $3.1 million in the previous three months.

Diversified mining company BHP Billiton bounded 4.1 percent higher to R44.40 on what traders said was expectations of good results from the company when it reports results next month.

Black-led media group Nail shot higher on a handful of deals after saying a consortium that included chief executive Saki Macozoma had made a R9 a share offer for the company. Its low-voting N shares gained 13.8 percent to R7.70.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?action=press_relea…



2003 American Eagle Gold Proof One-Ounce Coin Sells Out

- Other Denominations, Silver and Four-Coin Set Selling at Fast Pace -

Washington - The United States Mint confirmed today that the individual 2003-dated one-ounce American Eagle Gold Proof Coins sold out on July 6, 2003, after only seven weeks since they went on sale. As a result, one-ounce 2003-dated American Eagle Gold Proof Coins are now available only as part of the United States Mint`s American Eagle Gold Proof Four-Coin Set.

By comparison, the 2002-dated one-ounce American Eagle Gold Proof Coins sold out on August 21, 2002, after 11 weeks of being on sale. The 2003-dated half-ounce, quarter-ounce, tenth-ounce American Eagle Gold Proof Coins and the popular four-coin set are also selling above 2002 levels.

Mintages, sales and prices for 2003-dated American Eagle Gold Proof Coins are listed below (as of July 23, 2003):

Gold Proof Production limit Sold Percentage Sale price

1 ounce 8,000 Sold out 100% $630
1/2 ounce 8,000 4,724 59% $315
1/4 ounce 10,000 6,575 66% $165
1/10 ounce 25,000 12,861 51% $85
Four-coin set 21,000 14,861 71% $1,098

The 2003-dated American Eagle Silver Proof Coins are also very popular, with more than 628,000 coins sold since April 2, 2003. With a production limit of only 750,000, these coins are also expected to sell out.

Sales of the 2003 American Eagle Gold Coins will continue while quantities last or until December 31, 2003. The United States Mint reserves the right to limit quantities and may discontinue accepting orders at any time. The 2003 American Eagle Platinum Proof Coins are currently scheduled for release in September 2003.

Customers can purchase the remaining 2003 American Eagle Gold or Silver Proof Coins by using the United States Mint`s secure website, www.USMINT.gov, or by calling 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468). Hearing- and speech-impaired customers with TTY equipment may order by calling 1-888-321-MINT (6468). A shipping and handling fee of $3.95 per order will be added to all domestic orders.

Contact: Press inquiries: Michael White [phone]
Customer Service information: (800) USA MINT (872-6468)

[ThaiGuru]

[jeffery2]

Aha,der Goldpreis ist vom 15.-24.7. gestiegen. Hätte ich nicht gedacht.
J2

[Cashlover]

Interessanter ist aber die Frage, wie lange DOW und POG noch parallel steigen werden

[ThaiGuru]

Da die Gold Preise, nach Angebot und Nachfrage, verangegangener kontiunierlicher starker Entwertung des Dollars, und dem beim Gold schon über 10 Jahre andauernden Produktionsdefizit nach zu urteilen viel zu tief liegen, schätze ich mal, dass das goldene Pferd zukünftig den DOW weit hinter sich stehen lassen wird.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/07/25/1059084209143.h…

Tax evaders cash in with $100bn bonanza

July 26 2003

The black economy is not only alive and well - it`s booming, writes Annette Sampson.

the balck economy now represents over 10% of Australia`s GDP.

Australians are failing to declare more than $100 billion a year in income to the Tax Office.

Despite claims that the GST would help scupper the cash economy, it is alive and well, and estimated to be worth 15 per cent of gross domestic product.

These are the findings of a large academic study on Australia`s cash economy to be released by the Taxpayers` Research Foundation. The study is the first to examine in detail the effects of the GST on the cash economy now that the GST has had time to settle in.

The report`s author, Christopher Bajada, is a senior lecturer in economics at the University of Technology Sydney and author of two books on Australia`s cash economy.

He said there was a temporary reduction in the cash economy when the GST was introduced in 2000, but the benefits were short-lived. The cash economy is now worth about $14,000 for each Australian household, and is costing the country billions in unpaid taxes.


Bajada said while the introduction of Australian Business Numbers had led to some success in reducing cash transactions between businesses, the new tax system had done nothing to stop underground transactions in the household sector.

He said households were responsible for about 55 per cent of cash economy transactions, with businesses responsible for 45 per cent. Small businesses appeared to be more active in the cash economy than big business, with the service and construction industries among the main contributors.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"There may have been some initial caution when the GST was introduced, but it doesn`t seem to have changed behaviour significantly," Bajada said.



A Tax Office spokesman said the cash economy was one of the office`s highest priorities. It estimated it had collected an extra $2.6 billion in tax by June 2003 as a result of the new system.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"There is not a country in the world where GST has reduced the cash economy. CYNTHIA COLE, Sydney University associate professor in taxation law"

But Bajada`s findings contradict Government claims that the GST would reduce the cash economy. "There is not a country in the world where that has happened," said Cynthia Cole, an associate professor in taxation law at Sydney University. "People in the cash economy are now paying GST when they spend money, but they were always paying things like sales tax and quite often they have simply increased their cash jobs to compensate for any extra costs."

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.sonntagsblick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=55318

Artikel vom 27. Juli 2003 / Quelle: SonntagsBlick

Wirtschaftskrise

Vorsorge-Debakel: Diese vier Reformen retten uns

VON WERNER VONTOBEL

Das System der Altersvorsorge macht die Konjunktur kaputt und gefährdet die soziale Sicherheit. SonntagsBlick zeigt die fünf Hauptprobleme und die vier nötigen Reformen auf.

KARIKATUR: ERNST FEURER-METTLER

In der Altersvorsorge herrscht Kriegszustand: Hier die Versicherungen, dort die versicherten Arbeitnehmer und Betriebe. Beide kämpfen um ihr Überleben, die einen kurz- die andern langfristig. Dabei greifen die Versicherungen tief in die Trickkiste, und die Bundesämter (für Privatversicherungen und für Sozialversicherung), die das Ganze überwachen sollten, sind heillos überfordert.
Doch bessere Schiedsrichter allein reichen nicht mehr. Dazu weist das System der beruflichen Vorsorge (BVG) viel zu viele grundlegende Mängel auf:

1. Übersparen. Die Schweiz investiert je nach Konjunkturlage zwischen 17 und 21 Prozent des Bruttoinlandprodukts (BIP, jährliche Produktion von Gütern und Dienstleistungen). Entsprechend dürften maximal 21 BIP-Prozent gespart werden. Doch allein schon die Ersparnisse der Unternehmen (rund 17 BIP-Prozent) und die privaten Ersparnisse der Haushalte (gut 5 BIP-Prozent) bringen eine Sparquote von 22 Prozent. Die 6 bis 7 BIP-Prozent, die durch das BVG noch dazukommen sind Gift für die Nachfrage.

2. Kein Geld für die KMU. Die nicht an der Börse kotierten und nicht kapitalmarktfähigen Unternehmen beschäftigen über 80 Prozent aller Arbeitskräfte. Das BVG schleust die Ersparnisse an den KMU vorbei direkt an die Aktienbörse und an den Kapitalmarkt.

3. Kein Inflationsausgleich. Die Konstruktion des BVG beruht auf 4 Prozent Zins und 3 Prozent Inflation. Sinkt die Inflation (und damit die Zinsen), werden die Renten unfinanzierbar.

4. Zu hohe Kosten. Zumindest für die fast 50 Prozent aller Beschäftigten, die bei Sammelstiftungen von Versicherungen angeschlossen sind, ist die Administration des BVG enorm teuer. Sie allein verschlingt 10 bis 25 Prozent der Ersparnisse.

5. Keine Risikostreuung. Die Versicherungen gehen immer mehr dazu über, das Risiko der Invalidisierung nach Alter und Branchenzugehörigkeit zu differenzieren. Damit werden ältere Arbeitssuchende praktisch unvermittelbar und viele Arbeitgeber stehen vor der Wahl, entweder ihre teuren Mitarbeiter sofort zu entlassen oder in die Illiquidität getrieben zu werden.

Von den Problemen 4 und 5 sind jene Unternehmen weit weniger betroffen, die einer branchenweiten Gemeinschaftseinrichtung angeschlossen sind. Dort sind die Verwaltungskosten um 10 bis 30 (!) Mal billiger und es findet keine Risikodifferenzierung statt. In Ländern wie Schweden, Dänemark oder Holland sind Gemeinschaftseinrichtungen die Regel und Versicherungslösungen die Ausnahme. In Holland besteht die Möglichkeit, den Beitritt zur Gemeinschaftseinrichtung im Rahmen von Gesamtarbeitsverträgen für allgemein verbindlich zu erklären. Daraus ergibt sich:

Reformschritt Nr. 1:

Die Auffangeinrichtung (als letzter Notnagel für kleine Firmen) muss für alle KMU zu einer echten Alternative ausgebaut werden. Zu diesem Zweck muss sie ihren Vertrag mit den (viel zu teuren) Versicherungen lösen, und sie muss den Unternehmen auch für den überobligatorischen Teil des BVG offen stehen. Zu erwägen ist auch die Möglichkeit, den Beitritt zur Auffangeinrichtung überall dort für allgemeinverbindlich zu erklären, wo keine Branchenlösung und keine autonome Betriebskasse existiert.

So geht es: Die Sozialpartner müssen sich einigen.

Reformschritt Nr. 2:

Der Sicherheitsfonds, der das Risiko einer ungünstigen Altersstruktur kollektiv abdeckt, muss neu auch als Risikopool für alle Invaliditätsrisiken dienen. Alle Firmen müssen die Möglichkeit haben, ihre Risiken zum Einheitstarif bei der Auffangeinrichtung zu versichern.

So geht es: BVG muss revidiert werden.

Reformschritt Nr. 3:

Die ausgebaute Auffangeinrichtung sowie genügend grosse Gemeinschaftseinrichtungen könnten teilweise im Umlageverfahren finanziert werden. Zumindest aber können Unterdeckung auf sehr lange Frist – und ohne Beitragserhöhung – saniert werden. Damit würde Problem 1 teilweise entschärft.

So geht es: BVG muss revidiert werden.

Reformschritt Nr. 4:

Die BVG-Renten müssen inflationsgesichert werden. Zur Refinanzierung müssen die BVG-Einrichtungen direkt oder indirekt inflationsgeschützte Realzinskredite an KMU und Hypothekenschuldner vergeben.

So geht es: Der Bundesrat legt einen realen Mindestzins (Zins nach Abzug der Teuerung) fest.

[Sig]

@ThaiGuru
Das Problem dabei ist, die FED interveniert bei Gold!
Glaubst du irgend jemand wird jemals die amerikanischen Schulden zurück zahlen? Genau so wenig wie jemand je die aufgebauten Shortpositionen in Gold wieder eindecken
wird.
Aufgelöst wird das irgendwann in einem Geldcrash und wie lange der noch mit fiskalischen Tricks hinausgezögert wird weiß kein Mensch und so lange könnte der Goldpreis weiter künstlich gedrückt werden.
Wenn du auf diesen Crash spielst dann nur mit physischem Gold, denn die Banken werden am Tag X geschlossen haben!

SIG

[ThaiGuru]

@Sig

Genau so ist es, die FED, und das Gold Cabal wird alles daran setzen, dass die Leute den Glauben ans Gold verlieren. Wo sie nur kann greift sie ein um den Goldpreis unten zu halten, und wenn möglich unter jedem verfügbaren Vorwand Gold wieder durch ihre assozierten Instrumente, wie Bullion Banken, Zentralbanken, etc., runterzureden, oder abverkaufen zu lassen.

Ganz sicher wird Amerika ihre Schulden, Hyperinflation einmal ausgeschlossen auch, niemals zurückbezahlen können, oder wollen. Deutschland übrigens auch nicht. Wie könnten sie auch? Seit Jahren wird von Sparen geredet. In Wirklichkeit wurde nur versucht die Neuverschuldung zu begrenzen. Nicht einmal das klappt mehr, wie uns die neusten Zahlen belegen.

Es werden der Schulden immer mehr, und mehr!

Den Kauf von physischem Gold empfehle ich übrigens seit ich hier angefangen habe zu posten, weil nur das physische Gold überhaupt in der Lage ist, dem Gold Cabal das Rückgrat zu brechen, da sind wir uns vermutlich einig.

Unsere Ansichten weichen anscheinend darin ab, wann denn der Zeitpunkt gekommen ist, an welchem die FED die physische Gold Nachfrage, und natürlich dadurch noch mehr die Gold Preise nicht mehr kontrollieren kann.

Ich bin selbst überzeugt davon, dass dieser Tag kurz bevor steht, und die FED mit ihren Gold Bullion Banken bereits heute grösste Mühe hat das Goldgeschehen zu beeinflussen.

Fiskalische Tricks wird die FED sicherlich auch noch vermehrt versuchen anzuwenden, sogar ein Goldverbot wie schon mal früher in den USA gehabt, wäre theoretisch eine Möglichkeit, und ein letzter Versuch den gerade jetzt wieder verstärkt auftretenden Aufwärtstrend beim Gold abzuwürgen.


Ein Gold Preis bestimmt von Angebot und Nachfrage, und nicht mehr nur von FED und Gold Cabal." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Versucht hat das Gold Cabal in der Vergangenheit vieles, trotzdem sind die Bemühungen letztendlich gescheitert, und die physische Nachfrage nach Gold immer mehr gestiegen, vor allem in Arabien, Indien, und den asiatischen Ländern. China ist jetzt auch noch neu hinzugekommen mit seinen ca. 1300 Mio. Menschen, die ein neues riesiges Potential an Gold Käufern darstellt.

Alle weiteren Versuche Gold zu "töten" wird mit Sicherheit noch mehr scheitern, und schlussendlich, hoffentlich noch dieses Jahr, den Gold Anlegern wieder faire Goldpreise, und nicht zu vergessen auch Silberpreise zu bescheren, die bedeutend höher liegen werden als die jetzigen Preise.

Ein Gold Preis bestimmt von Angebot und Nachfrage, und nicht mehr nur von FED und Gold Cabal.

Physisches Gold, strong buy!!!

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Magor]

SA Minenstreik abgewendet:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyI…

Ist das nun positiv zu werten,
weil betroffene Minengesellschaften nun "entlastet" sind und anziehen können ...
oder
wird die Meldung negativ gewertet,
weil keine weitere Materialverkappung durch Streik stattfindet?

Bin mal gespannt auf erste Kurse in Sydney ...

Grüße
Magor

[hpoth]

Ja, daß ist hier die Frage ? keiner weis es, kann nur vermutet werden.Richtig wird vieleicht Sydney etwas aussagen wo die Reise hin geht.Schönen Sonntag noch hpoth

[valueinvestor]

Zitat: Ganz sicher wird Amerika ihre Schulden, Hyperinflation einmal ausgeschlossen auch, niemals zurückbezahlen können, oder wollen. Deutschland übrigens auch nicht. Wie könnten sie auch? Seit Jahren wird von Sparen geredet. In Wirklichkeit wurde nur versucht die Neuverschuldung zu begrenzen. Nicht einmal das klappt mehr, wie uns die neusten Zahlen belegen.

Würdest du bei jemandem mit 100.000 Euro Jahreseinkommen eine Insolvenz prognostizieren, wenn er 60.000 Euro Schulden hat?

[ThaiGuru]

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Würdest du bei jemandem mit 100.000 Euro Jahreseinkommen eine Insolvenz prognostizieren, wenn er 60.000 Euro Schulden hat?"

Wohl kaum!

Von einer Insolvenz war in meinem Posting doch gar nirgends die Rede gewesen.

Gegenfrage:

Bedeutet es denn Deiner Ansicht nach, dass jemand der 100000.- Euro Jahreseinkommen hat, unbedingt auch in der Lage sein muss, seine 60000.- Euro Schulden zurückzahlen zu können, falls sein Einkommen nicht einmal dazu ausreicht seine jetzigen laufenden Ausgaben zu begleichen?

Glaubst Du wirklich, dass jemand auf weitere zusätzliche Kredite freiwillig verzichtet, falls er ohne weiteres die Möglichkeit hat weiteres zusätzliches Geld zu erhalten?

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

@Magor

Streik abgewendet!

Sehe ich kurzfristig eher negativ für uns Gold Bugs, weil das physische Gold jetzt nich verknappt wird!

Das Gold Cabal wird`s freuen, dass es nicht zum Streik gekommen ist.

Positiv ist der Vergleich sicher für die vielen Minen Arbeiter die nun mehr Geld erhalten werden, das sie wohl auch bitter nötig haben.

Negativ sehe ich die "Einigung" für die SA Gold Produzenten, die sich durch die vereinbarte 10%ige Lohnerhöhung, massiv höheren Produktionskosten gegenübersehen.

Positiv sehe ich diese Einigung für den Goldpreis, weil er aus mittlerer Sicht nun zwingend steigen muss, da sich sonst die Goldproduktion in SA bald nicht mehr rentiert, und die Gold Produktion durch Stillegung von unrentablen Minen weiter reduziert werden dürfte.

Das ist nun aber wohl das Letzte, was sich das Gold Cabal wü…

Positiv sehe ich auch den Druck, der durch diese Einigung in letzter Minute auf die SA Regierung einwirkt, endlich wirksam etwas gegen die horrende Ueberbewertung des Südafrikanischen Randes zu unternehmen, die sonst langsam aber sicher ihre eigene Gold Industrie ruiniert.

Doch am allerbesten wäre es, falls die Goldpreise endlich auf ein für Südafrika dauerhaftes, produktionswürdiges, und rentables Preisnivau ansteigen würden.

Dieser Preis liegt mit Sicherheit oberhalb von 400.- US Dollar pro Unze!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[axelkitzing]

25.7.03 Fed macht sich zum Sklaven der Märkte
US-Notenbanker müssen mit verbalen Interventionen die Märkte in Schach halten - Einbruch bedroht Konjunkturaufschwung

von Holger Zschäpitz

Berlin - Die amerikanische Notenbank Fed spielt mit den Börsen immer wieder Katz und Maus. Je nach Verfassung der Finanzmärkte füttert sie die Investorengemeinde gezielt mit Informationen, um die Kurse in die gewünschte Richtung zu bewegen. Zu Wochenmitte warf sich Fed-Gouverneur Ben Bernanke dem anhaltenden Minicrash am Rentenmarkt entgegen. Schließlich rauschte der Kurs der zehnjährigen US-Staatsanleihen allein innerhalb der letzten vier Wochen um zwölf Prozent in die Tiefe. Bewusst holte Bernanke das Deflationsgespenst wieder aus der Kiste. Die US-Notenbank sei zu einer neuerlichen Lockerung der Geldpolitik bereit, um einem nachhaltigen Preisverfall frühzeitig entgegenzuwirken, ließ er öffentlichkeitswirksam verkünden. ... Nur zu gut sind vielen Investoren noch die verbalen Interventionen von Fed-Chef Alan Greenspan von Anfang Mai im Bewusstsein. Damals redete der Magier der Märkte mit Deflationsäußerungen die Kurse bei den Anleihen nach oben. Nur einen Monat später war davon nicht mehr die Rede. Auch von möglichen Anleihekäufen durch die Notenbank wollte Greenspan plötzlich nichts mehr wissen und löste damit den Minicrash aus. Viele Strategen sehen in der Bernanke-Rede den bewussten Versuch, den von Greenspan begangenen Flurschaden wieder gutzumachen.

Denn ein weiterer Kursverfall und damit Renditeanstieg am Bondsmarkt könnte den US-Wirtschaftsaufschwung ausbremsen, noch bevor er richtig Fahrt aufgenommen hat. Gefahren lauern vor allem am Hypothekenmarkt. Höhere Zinsen könnten den Immobilienboom stoppen, der in den letzten drei Jahren die US-Verbraucher bei Laune gehalten hat. So sorgten stetig sinkende Zinsen dafür, dass die amerikanischen Haushalte ihre Häuserkredite zu immer günstigeren Konditionen umschuldeten und die dadurch frei werdenden Mittel in den Konsum stecken konnten. ... Die Fed wird damit zum Sklaven der Märkte. Doch dies hat sie sich zum Großteil selbst zuzuschreiben. Nach den zahlreichen verbalen Interventionen kann sie nicht mehr zurück. "Der Kurs der US-Notenbanker ist äußerst gefährlich und könnte direkt in einen Riesen-Crash münden", sagt Hugh Hendry, Fondsmanager bei Odey Asset Management. ... (Welt, 26.7.03)


Kommentar: Wer heute immer noch glaubt, daß Notenbanken die Wirtschaft beeinflußen könnten, dem ist wirklich nicht mehr zu helfen. Die Notenbanker versuchen nur immer wieder Zweckoptimismus zu verbreiten und betreiben damit Augenwischerei – nichts weiter. Wer daran glaubt, der schenkt sein Vertrauen Leuten, welche uns noch vor wenigen Jahren einen ewigen Aufschwung prophezeiten. Wer das System kennt, der weiß, daß es am Ende ist.

aki

[ThaiGuru]

In einem spekulativen Gold Minen Portefeuille, sollte diese Aktie auch nicht fehlen!

[ThaiGuru]

Noch ein Chart zu Caledonia Mining!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.jordantimes.com/Mon/economy/economy2.htm

Iraqis, Jordanian expatriates drive up gold market

AMMAN (Petra) — The gold market is reviving as Iraqi gold traders, tourists and Jordanians working abroad rush to get hold of this precious and valuable commodity in its different forms.

Jordanian goldsmiths confirmed Sunday that large numbers of Iraqi gold traders are seen shopping in the gold market and purchasing different quantities of gold, whether in retail or wholesale bargains."

Different celebrations during summer have also given the gold market a further boost.

"For a month-and-a-half now, the gold market has been witnes… Goldsmith Association Secretary Ghaleb Sakijha indicated.

Despite this season`s active business, the trading volume in this commodity still falls short of that of the 1980s when large numbers of Iraqi traders, tourists and Jordanians working abroad used to converge into the Kingdom and buy gold and other goods at much larger quantities.

Monday, July 28, 2003

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=&fArticleId=196…

NEWS

DRD cuts a lonely figure as only gold group with no agreement

July 28, 2003

By Sherilee Bridge

Johannesburg - While South Africa`s gold mining majors got a good night`s sleep knowing that they had averted a nationwide strike at their operations, marginal operation Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) was still out in the cold.

The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said yesterday that no agreement had been reached with DRD.

The union said DRD was offering a 2 percent pay rise for employees at its Hartebeesfontein mine and a 4 percent increase at Buffelsfontein, problematic mines in North West province.

DRD has embarked on a 60-day review to ascertain the severity of the cost cuts the company must implement at the mines to return them to profitability.

South Africa`s fourth-biggest gold producer has warned that it might close the mines, which employ a total of 13 000 people
.

The mineworkers` union is scheduled to meet the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration today over sticking points in the DRD negotiations.

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"If they cannot run the mines profitably, we will get them to give them to people who can run them," said Gwede Mantashe, the general secretary of the NUM.

"They (DRD) are running the mines into the ground because th… Mantashe said.

DRD`s shares closed 45c, or 2.41 percent, firmer at R19.10 in Johannesburg on Friday, 12 percent up on the week.

[ThaiGuru]

Einfach toll dieser Bericht!

Die arabische Presse scheint der europäischen um Längen voraus zu sein, zumindest was die Einschätzungen zum Goldgeschehen betreffen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6§ion=0&article=29470&d=28&m=7…

Monday, 28, July, 2003 (29, Jumada al-Ula, 1424)

Is Gold Staging Comeback as a ‘Save Haven’ Investment?

Habib F. Faris • Special to Arab News

LONDON, 28 July 2003 — Gold has always been intriguing to mankind.

People have envied those who have it, pitied those who do not, and fought or robbed one another to obtain more of it. A primary motivation for owning gold is its security in times of trouble. National currencies have been devastated by inflation or government bankruptcy. Gold, on the other hand, has generally been a good store of value. Literature Nobel laureate George Bernard Shaw once said, “ if you must choose between placing your trust in the government or placing your trust in gold, then gentlemen, I strongly advise you to place your trust in gold.” It is no coincidence that French people who have suffered through many wars hold much of today’s privately owned gold.

Some of the better arguments for investing in gold have traditionally involved diversification benefits. However, for today’s investor even more relevant is the recent drop in correlation between stocks and gold. After years of little (but positive) correlation, we are currently observing a negative relationship between the two assets classes, in other words, when one of the two instruments exceeds its average returns, the other will generally provide returns below its average. Negatively correlated assets are a rare phenomenon in the financial universe. By reducing volatility without impairing aggregated returns, they can greatly simplify the structuring of an efficient (optimally diversified) portfolio.

Gold stashed away in your bank locker has most likely been your best performing investment in year 2002. The legitimate question arises, if the optimal point in time to purchase gold has been missed. Today’s price of over $360 per troy once reflects gold’s global comeback as a “save haven” investment.

The other major determinant of the strong gold prices was the weakening US dollar. Over the last two years, concerns over trade balances, mounting debt, and protectionism of the world’s greatest economy prompted investors to dump dollars and to buy gold. Since the inverse price relationship is likely to continue, an investor expecting further dollar falls is well advised with an exposure to the precious metal.

The recent fall in South Africa’s rand puts significant pressure on the economics of local mining companies. The closing of high cost operations is accelerating the country’s dwindling gold production. To the extent that other nations cannot compensate South Africa’s output deficiency, a reduced world gold supply will support higher gold prices.

Business undertakings by two of the most respected gold investors also point to rising gold prices. Seymour Schulich and Pierre Lassonde, the two biggest individual shareholders of Newmont Mining Inc., maintain their tradition of never sharing their predictions on gold prices with the public. A recent company transaction, however, offered some rare insight into their forecasts.

After a decade of hedging against downward price developments, the two engaged for the very first time in a transaction that will fully expose them to the prices of gold. The deal will only make them money if gold reaches and remains at a level well above $345.

There are four ways for you to invest in gold:

1. One can invest in gold by buying gold bullions. Problematic with holding bullions are storage issues and the risk of theft. They also produce no income until sold, and sometimes lack marketability

2. Gold certificates represent ownership of gold bullions that are stored by someone else. They are liquid and can readily be sold back to the dealer. Certificates are a convenient way of investing in gold; storage, delivery (the certificate holder can request the underlying gold at any time), and insurance is taken care of by a third party.

3. A popular way of gold ownership is in the form of shares in gold mining companies. A major advantage of investing in actual firms is the potential for periodic dividends. However, prudent investing calls for a thorough examination of gold firm’s risk profile. Cautious investors are well aware that mining stocks can be more volatile (risky) than gold prices themselves.

4. Investing in gold indices involves less risk than buying single shares. We suggest looking at the capitalization weighted Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU), which includes the world’s leading mining companies.

(The information contained herein is for information only and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation to purchase, subscribe, sell or redeem any investments. While Clariden Bank uses reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources, which it believes to be reliable, Clariden Bank makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information)

[M@trix]

Ein neuer Artikel ist nun unter http://www.TAC2000.de sowie http://www.new-sense.net (Wirtschaft/Aktuelles) abrufbar:

23.07.2003
Der Zusammenbruch des US-Dollar-Standards

"Sobald China den Yuan gegen den US-Dollar frei floaten lässt, wird der US-Dollarstandard "Historie" sein. Die Frage ist allerdings: wohin mit den ganzen US-Dollar-Scheinen? Wer nimmt diese ab? Wie schafft man es, aus dem US-Dollar-Monopol auszuklinken, ohne das Finanzsystem ernsthaft ins wanken zu bringen? [...] Der Zusammenbruch des US-Dollar-Standards wird früher oder später zu einem massiven Anstieg der Inflationsrate in den USA führen, was globale "Schockwellen" hervorrufen wird. Es ist nicht unwahrscheinlich, dass eine Flucht aus den Papierwährungen den Goldpreis auf neue historische Höchststände treiben wird." (Auszug)

Hinweisend,
M@trix

[goldmaki]

viele urlaubsgruesse aus suednorwegen

wie ich lese, bleiben alle goldbugs weiter am ball -

ciao goldmaki

[talvi100]

ohne Worte!

Grüße Talvi

[Magor]

# 6603
"Die arabische Presse scheint der europäischen um Längen voraus zu sein, zumindest was die Einschätzungen zum Goldgeschehen betreffen!"

Anscheinend gehören die noch nicht zu Time Warner & Konsortium, Thai
und sind demnach noch nicht eingespannt im Chor ...

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yh…

THOM CALANDRA`S STOCKWATCH

Silver finally in the bullion rally
Exploration companies` shares skyrocketing

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:21 PM ET July 28, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Gold is back on the front-burner, as is that other precious metal, silver.

Silver, more an industrial metal than gold, rose almost 10 percent in the seven trading days through last Thursday, then eased Friday. It`s up again Monday, with silver`s active New York-traded future trading at its highest point since July 2002.

"This time the price has moved up on increased volume, and t…

Up until now, silver hasn`t followed gold. The metal, which is used in computers, refrigerators, microwave ovens and so on, didn`t participate in the gold rally for much of the last year. "That was disconcerting," says Morgan, who has tracked the silver market for 20 years.

"I think people are starting to understand the silver story …

Many of the newsletter writers and the analysts who follow precious metals are confident the two metals will stage impressive rallies for the remainder of 2003.

"The bottom line is that both gold and silver could jump hig…

Turk says a close Monday in silver futures of $5.10 to $5.12 an ounce will create "a strong base of support under the market." His target for silver is $6.45 by late September or early October, with the ratio for gold`s price as a multiple of silver`s declining to 62 from its current 71. At a ratio of 62, a $6.45 silver price would translate into $400 an ounce, if Turk is correct, and I believe he will be.

I`ll have more on precious metals this week in subscription service The Calandra Report, including a round-up of several top-rated analysts and the inside track on the metals-exploration companies whose shares have the most to gain from a lasting bullion rally.

The exploration sector has been on fire for the past month, with small and mid-sized companies racking up gains of 50 percent and more. Some of these shares are volatile as all get-go.

One company Morgan favors, for instance, Sterling Mining (SRLM: news, chart, profile), was up as much as 75 percent Monday morning on the over-the-counter market. Morgan explains that Sterling recently secured the lease of the Sunshine Mine in Idaho, North America`s richest silver mine.

The Sunshine Mine has produced more than 350 million ounces of silver since 1884, Morgan says. The mine has a 26 million-ounce reserve and 160 million-ounce resource.

The Calandra Report`s primary silver recommendation, Wheaton River Minerals (WHT: news, chart, profile), is up 40 percent in the past two months on the American Stock Exchange. The Canadian company, also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, produces gold, silver and copper at several locations and just paid $85 million to buy Luismin SA de CV, a Mexican gold and silver producer.



Gold ETF works on issues

In the U.S. stock market, one closed-end fund, Central Fund of Canada (CEF: news, chart, profile), is a repository for silver and gold. Shares of Central Fund, which trade on the American Stock Exchange and in Canada, trade at a premium to the gold and silver prices. In the past two weeks, that premium has increased to about 12 percent from less than 10 percent -- a sign ordinary investors are taking more than a passing interest in filling their portfolios with paper bullion.

A gold-only depository managed by the same Central Fund of Canada team, Central Gold-Trust (CA:GTUUN: news, chart, profile), sells for about 10 percent more than the spot gold price.

In related news, a long-awaited exchange-traded fund for gold, to be called Gold Equity Trust (GLD: news, chart, profile), is running into several issues at the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. Gold Equity Trust, sponsored by the World Gold Council, is expected to resubmit its application to the SEC, with clarifications in several areas.

An exchange-traded fund, such as the famous Nasdaq 100 QQQs, represents underlying assets and changes hands exactly like a security, in real time. Until the launch of a gold ETF in Australia this year, there had been no commodity-linked ETF in the world. See: Drum roll, please.



The sponsor`s of this latest version of paper gold were hoping to see their security trade on the New York Stock Exchange sometime this summer. Now, it looks like the trust, with a proposed ticker symbol of GLD, won`t trade until autumn, if it gains SEC clearance.

The World Gold Council and the Wall Street banks that are laying the groundwork for the New York Stock Exchange-traded gold trust have been mum about their product since filing a lengthy application with the SEC earlier this year. Sources tell me regulators at the SEC, after digesting the proposed trust`s filing, may be concerned about a perceived absence of control by the exchange-traded fund`s manager/trustee, HSBC, over the banks that are considered custodians and sub-custodians for the actual gold the trust will hold in London-based vaults.

(Note: In the interest of full disclosure on silver, I own shares of Central Fund of Canada, Western Silver Corp. (WTZ: news, chart, profile) and Bitterroot Resources Ltd. (CA:BTT: news, chart, profile).)

At midday New York time Monday, spot gold`s price was up $3 to $365.50 and spot silver was up 9 cents to $5.16 an ounce.

The Calandra Report

The latest issue of The Calandra Report is out to paying subscribers. Read why a small video-technology company could provide explosive gains to investors. The Calandra Report is available only to paying subscribers. For more information, see The Calandra Report.

[ThaiGuru]

STERLING MINING

Diese Silberminen Aktie ist heute sage und schreibe von 1.10 auf 2.01 im Höchst gestiegen, und steht jetzt gerade bei Plus 77.27%, auf 1.95 Dollar.

Habe die Mine hier im Thread 2 mal vorgestellt, zum letzten mal im Juni 2003, als STERLING MINING die alte Sunshine Mining übernommen hatte.

Ich nehm jetzt einfach einmal an, dass SRLM seinen Aktionären, gehöre selbst seit über 2 Jahren dazu, bei einem weiter steigenden Silberpreis noch viel Freude machen wird.

STERLING MINING (Other OTC:SRLM.PK)

Last Trade
1:17pm · 1.95 Change
+0.85 (+77.27%) Prev Cls
1.10 Open
2.00 Volume
248,700
1.65 - 2.01

Der 2 Jahres Chart (ohne den heutigen Anstieg!)


Der heutige Tageschart!

[ThaiGuru]

Es sieht so aus als das Mahendra mit seiner Silber Preis Prognose ins Schwarze trifft!

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030728/lam048_1.html

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur Announces Major Memorandum of Understanding for Kensington Mine Permitting Signed By State and Federal Agencies

Monday July 28, 8:35 am ET

JUNEAU, Alaska, July 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE - News) and the State of Alaska today announced a major milestone toward the final permitting of Coeur`s Kensington Gold Project. Key state and federal agencies have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to help complete the environmental approvals for the mine. The MOU, signed by the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Army Corps of Engineers, outlines roles and responsibilities of the agencies with respect to the final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) for Kensington, which is located in Southeast Alaska near Juneau.

The MOU also establishes the schedule for the project`s major federal permits. These include: approval of the Plan of Operations by the Forest Service; issuance of an NPDES water discharge permit by EPA; and issuance of a 404 permit by the Corps for discharge of dredged and/or fill material into waters of the United States, including wetlands. The Alaska Department of Natural Resources will coordinate all state involvement to ensure a consolidated response, and to facilitate timely agency review.

Coeur anticipates receiving all necessary permits for Kensington by the end of January 2004, and plans to reach a final decision on developing the mine after completion of the permitting and a feasibility study update.

"The Kensington Project is one that has been very important to Southeast and all of Alaska for some time," Alaska Governor Frank H. Murkowski said. "It is consistent with our goal of helping to create high-paying jobs in the natural resource sector. I am pleased with the signing of the MOU and look forward to the permitting and construction of the project."

Dennis E. Wheeler, Coeur`s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, "The signing of this MOU brings certainty regarding completion of permitting so the final feasibility study can be updated on this major gold project, which would significantly increase Coeur`s gold production and bring several hundred jobs to Southeast Alaska.

"We appreciate very much Governor Murkowski`s efforts to implement the agreement, as well as the participation by the key federal agencies. We will enthusiastically pursue this priority objective to complete the permitting program by January of 2004," Mr. Wheeler added.

The Kensington Gold Project is located approximately 45 miles north of Juneau, Alaska and contains an estimated 1.8 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves and 1.4 million ounces of resources. Capital costs necessary to place Kensington into production are currently estimated to be $150 million, while annual gold production is projected to average 175,000 ounces annually at estimated average cash operating costs of approximately $200 per ounce. Coeur believes that significant exploration potential exists at Kensington that could materially increase the project`s total resources.

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation is the world`s largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Contact: Tony Ebersole
208-665-0335

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.aktiencheck.de/analysen/default_an.asp?sub=4&page…

Analysen - Ausland

28.07.2003

Randgold günstig bewertet

Finanzwoche

Die Experten vom Börsenbrief "Finanzwoche" sind der Meinung, dass die Aktie von Randgold Resources (ISIN US7523443098/ WKN 725199) aktuell günstig bewertet ist und erwarten daher eine überproportionale Kursentwicklung.

Entgegen der Namensbezeichnung, sei Randgold Resources vom s…

Randgold R. sei in der Lage, zu Cash-Kosten von rund 100 USD je Unze zu produzieren. Dies sei ein Wert, der in der Branche kaum unterboten werde und sichere daher die Ertragsfähigkeit der Gesellschaft in Phasen wo der Goldpreis niedrig sei. Zurückzuführen sei das auf die vorteilhafte Beschaffenheit und der relativ hohe Goldgehalt von rund 4,7 Gramm pro Tonne Gestein von Morila.

Randgold R. betreibe ein aktives Explorationsprogramm, welches sich hauptsächlich auf rund 45 Ziele in Westafrika sowie in Tansania konzentriere. Dies solle die langfristige Existenz des Unternehmens über das bisherige Minenleben von rund 9 Jahren hinaus sichern. Zur weiteren Vergrößerung des Unternehmens verfüge Randgold bereits die finanziellen Mittel.

Der freie Cash Flow dürfte auf Basis des Jahres 2003 bei rund 65 Mio. USD (hochgerechnet aus dem Ergebnis des ersten Quartals des laufenden Jahres) liegen. Dies entspreche einer freien Cash Flow-Bewertung (auf Basis Enterprice Value) von 7,2. Hierbei müsse man berücksichtigen, dass aufgrund des Firmensitzes auf den Kanal-Inseln, Randgold R. keinerlei Steuerverpflichtungen unterliege. Des weiteren verfüge das Unternehmen eine Liquidität von 81 Mio. USD. Diese würden für sinnvolle Akquisitionen zur Verfügung stehen.

Nach Meinung der Experten sei die Peer-Group von Randgold R. überschaubar. Hinzu komme, dass nur wenige Unternehmen zu deutlich unter dem Branchendurchschnitt liegenden Kosten produzieren könnten. Nordamerkanische Konkurrenten wie Glamis, Goldcorp und Meridian seien bei im Durchschnitt etwa identischer Produktionszahlen deutlich höher bewertet, was durch das Länderrisiko des Hauptproduktionsstandortes in Mali nicht zu rechtfertigen sei. Hiervon ausgenommen sei das australische Unternehmen Newcrest Mining, welches mit Cash-Kosten von zuletzt 137 USD/Unze Gold ebenfalls zu den low-cost Produzenten gehöre. Aufgrund der aktuellen Cash Flow-starken Gold-Produktion, zu deutlich branchenunterdurchschnittlichen Kosten, sei die langfristige Entwicklung des Minenbetreibers gesichert.

Die Experten vom Börsenbrief "Finanzwoche" erwarten bei der aktuellen günstigen Bewertung des Titels von Randgold Resources, eine überproportionale Kursentwicklung.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.derivatecheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=5&pa…

28.07.2003, 10:33 Uhr

Gold, Bullenmarkt par excellence

HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt

Trotz fester Tendenzen an den internationalen Aktienmärkten konnte sich der (typischerweise negativ mit den Börsen korrelierte) Goldpreis in den letzten Wochen gut behaupten, so berichten die Handelsexperten bei der HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt.



Die jüngste Abwärtskorrektur wäre dabei fast punktgenau in d…

Die technischen Indikatoren präsentierten sich in ausgezeichneter Verfassung: So hätte der Stochastik nach einer positiven Divergenz den extrem überverkauften Sektor dynamisch nach oben verlassen können. Der MACD hätte ebenfalls ein klares Kaufsignal generieren können - das Histogramm untermauere das Momentum der Hausse.

Sollte der Goldpreis auf Schlusskursbasis über 368 USD steigen, so die Experten bei der HSBC weiter, können neue Käufe vorgenommen bzw. vorhandene Bestände verstärkt werden. Als Stop-Loss solle die 200-Tages-Linie beachtet werden. Für einen mittelfristig steigenden Goldpreis spräche aus technischer Sicht überdies die Tatsache, dass das Gold, in JPY und GBP gerechnet, den o. g. Abwärtstrend bereits hätte überwinden können.

[Nefprak]

zu 6610: wie hoch und bis wann.
dank im voraus für die antwort.

gruß
nefprak

[b.heger]

[ThaiGuru]

Extra für die Schwätzer im WGold Board, die nicht müde wurden immer wieder zu posten, es gebe bei diesen jetzigen Gold Preisen, oder auch ganz allgemein keine genügende Nachfrage nach physischem Gold, kann ich heute diesen Artikel anbieten.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030728/markets_precious_comex_1.html

Reuters

COMEX gold jumps on physical buying, silver soars

Monday July 28, 11:20 am ET

NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - COMEX gold prices jumped Monday morning with physical gold buyers inspired by declining U.S. stock market and the euro reasserting itself against the dollar, traders said.

"It`s just an extension of last week`s rally. We`re in a rally mode. There`s a lot of physical buying. The funds are buying back in here. I think some of the dealers got caught short in the low $350s. That`s what fueled above $355. Then everybody jumped in and it kept going," said one floor broker.

During last week`s dramatic rally, traders said dollar weakn…

August gold futures (GCQ3) on the New York Mercantile Exchange`s COMEX division were up $4.00 at $366.80 an ounce, after surging to its highest level since June 6. The range ran between $360.10 and $367.70.

With first notice day on the horizon for August gold, many traders are also focusing on December futures which rose $4.20 to $368.70 an ounce.

COMEX gold volume was 12,000 lots by 0900 EDT.

Spot gold (XAU=) moved up to $366.20/6.95 from Friday`s late quote at $362.45/3.15. London dealers fixed the afternoon spot reference price at $361.95 an ounce.

The euro (EUR=) was sluggish but holding its own against the dollar. It was changing hands at $1.1484, well off last Friday`s high at $1.1550, a level not seen since July 2.

Traders said strength in the euro has been a key factor driving gold`s gains. A stronger euro makes dollar-denominated gold attractive for European investors.

After the close on Friday, CFTC released the latest Commitments of Traders report which showed net speculative long positions in COMEX gold rose to 39,409 in the July 22 week from 27,515 lots in the week to July 15. Nonreportable net long positions increased to 29,016 from 26,157 previously. Open interest rose to 192,848 at July 22 from 186,983 as of July 15.

The CFTC said the net speculative long position in COMEX silver slipped to 29,911 at July 22 from 30,343 lots in the week to July 15. Nonreportable net long positions edged down to 17,942 from 17,951 lots a week earlier. Open interest rose to 89,035 as of July 22, up from 87,872 on July 15.

hit an all-time contract high at $5.23.00 an ounce, then steadied around 6.50 cents higher at $5.145.

Silver surged to a 3-1/4 year peak on a spot basis. Spot silver (XAG=) jumped to $5.13/5.15 from $5.06/08 late Friday. Silver was fixed at $5.08." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">COMEX September silver (0#SI hit an all-time contract high at $5.23.00 an ounce, then steadied around 6.50 cents higher at $5.145.

Silver surged to a 3-1/4 year peak on a spot basis. Spot silver (XAG=) jumped to $5.13/5.15 from $5.06/08 late Friday. Silver was fixed at $5.08.

October platinum futures (0#PL was $4.30 higher at $694.50 an ounce. Spot platinum (XPT=) was up at $694.00/699.00 an ounce.

September palladium (0#PA rose $4.50 to $172.00 an ounce. Spot palladium (XPD=) was quoted higher at $169.00/174.00.

[ThaiGuru]

#6614

Er hat am 14. July 2003 folgendes gesagt:

jackpot and its stocks will be in bull-run."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Silver prices: Silver prices will touch $6 and I clearly see it going up to 7.90dollars. Moon rules silver and Moon is water so this will going to happen in very short span of time of 27 days after crossing $5.21. Silver investors will soon get jackpot and its stocks will be in bull-run."

Und jetzt solltest Du vielleicht zusätzlich auch noch einige Kilos physisches Silber kaufen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 28, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled higher at $364.80 an ounce, up $2.10 an ounce from Friday’s close. Gold gained on Fund buying and strong physical demand in spite of a weaker U.S. dollar. "It`s just an extension of last week`s rally. We`re in a rally mode. There`s a lot of physical buying. The funds are buying back in here. I think some of the dealers got caught short in the low $350s. That`s what fueled above $355. Then everybody jumped in and it kept going," said one floor broker. Currency trading in the euro and the value of the dollar continue to hold sway in the metals market, said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. Kaplan expects "very little change in the coming week," he said in a note to clients.

Gold prices have rallied almost $30 an ounce since the low of $340.80 on July 17, said Erik Gebhard, president of Altavest Worldwide Trading in Laguna Hills, Calif. As a result, "many investors continue to bid the market higher for fear of being left out of further advances, he said. "Prices continue above moving averages, indicators remain pointed higher and are not yet overbought," he said.

Amaury Conti, a gold equity trader at U.S. Global Investors said news that the ECB is selling their Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds helps the sentiment in the gold market. Other metals such as copper and silver, "are getting some nice breakouts on the back of anticipated strong demand in the second half" from both jewelry and industrial demand, he said, adding to gold`s strength.

Silver soared to 3 and half year highs today as well. "This …


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $365.60 an ounce, up from $361.95 an ounce at the morning fixing. "There was no real trigger to push the (gold) market $3-$4 up from where it was this morning. It is continued fund buying based on the simple fact that the market doesn`t seem to want to go down," Alan Williamson, metals analyst with HSBC. Analysts thought gold may have a chance of moving back up towards $370/75 if investment funds continued to suck money out of equities and currencies to place it with the currently more lucrative commodities. "It (strength) is not just gold and silver, but there is a broader push into commodities. Base metals are up also. At the moment commodities seem to be the flavour of the day," Williamson said. Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby said: "Gold and silver have both rallied today, taking support from physical buying and driven higher by a speculative push," she said.

"Speculative interest across the commodities recently has led to increased buying, but specifically today gold has also taken support from slightly weaker US equities," she added. In a research note Monday, UBS Investment Bank analyst John Reade said he believes weakness in the dollar, combined with recovering jewelry demand, will help gold trade higher "in the balance" of the year.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold rose $0.70 in Hong Kong to close at $362.25. Gold retreated in Asia on Monday as the dollar held firm and Asian equities markets rocketed higher. "In Asia we saw a bit of Japanese selling and a little bit of selling out of Hong Kong," said Greg Fan, a senior dealer at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong. "It`s only the second day we`ve seen gold in the 360s... I think Asians saw that gold met pretty good resistance around the 364, 365 level. So they`re happy to do some liquidation." Martin Mayne, associate director of bullion sales at NM Rothschild & Sons in Sydney, said a number of factors contributed to today`s modest pull-back. "Friday`s Commitment of Traders report (from New York) showed an additional 1.2 million ounces worth of net long exposure, plus a potential strike was averted in South Africa over the weekend," Mayne said. "Plus the U.S. dollar is a fraction stronger, so we`re seeing some profit taking," he added.

But traders and market watchers are optimistic that bullion can hold its recent gains. "Unless we see continued strength in the dollar, (support at) $358/oz should hold," Mayne said. David Thurtell, commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, is also optimistic that gold can remain at or near current levels. "Friday night was pretty impressive, given the strong rally by equities," Thurtell said, referring to gold`s $2 dollar climb in New York trading hours Friday, which came as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 172 points. "That gives me confidence that gold can hold above $355 in the near term," said Thurtell.


SOUTH AFRICAN GOLD MINERS STRIKE AVERTED:

South Africa`s mine workers` union called off a strike due to start on Sunday in the gold mining industry, saying employers had met wage and other demands. "The revised offers by the gold mining employers have been accepted by a majority of our members, thereby removing the prospect of a strike in the gold mining industry that was due to take place tonight," the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said in a statement. "The mining houses, on the outstanding issues of wages and job grading, have met our demands," the statement added.

Key mining firms AngloGold, Gold Fields, and Harmony Gold on Saturday offered to raise wages by 10 percent and proposed to pursue a process to deal with the contentious issue of job classification, said Chief Negotiator Frans Barker of employers` group the Chamber of Mines. The NUM said its members -- except those at two relatively smaller mines -- would receive a minimum 10 percent increase in wages and the companies would deal with the grading issue by December.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

A U.S. soldier was killed in a bomb attack in Baghdad Monday, bringing to 50 the number of U.S. troops to die from hostile fire since Washington declared major combat over on May 1. The U.S. military said three other troops were wounded when an "improvised explosive device" was dropped from a bridge onto a U.S. convoy in the capital`s Rashid district, the latest in an increasingly bold and deadly guerrilla campaign. Fueling a cycle of fear and resentment between American occupiers and ordinary Iraqis, people in Baghdad accused jumpy U.S. troops of killing five passers-by Sunday in what looked like a botched raid in the hunt for Saddam Hussein.

Six Afghan policemen were killed in an ambush by suspected Taliban and al Qaeda guerrillas in the southern province of Helmand at the weekend, a provincial official said on Monday. The attack occurred not far from a district in neighboring Kandahar province where five police officers were killed in a similar attack earlier this month. The attack followed word from a Taliban official that the group`s elusive leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, had approved a new deputy for the south on Saturday to assist a notorious commander suffering from wounds, and ordered him to intensify attacks on U.S. and government forces.

Liberia`s hungry capital prepared for more killing on its blood-spattered streets on Monday after rebels rejected a U.S. call to pull out of Monrovia immediately so peacekeepers can come in. Desperation is growing among more than one million people -- a third of the West African country`s population -- packed into a city under raining mortars and zinging bullets, without food, clean water or a safe place to sleep. Rebels of Liberians United for Reconciliation (LURD) and Democracy have been battling inside the city for 10 days to oust President Charles Taylor, a former warlord who, under U.S. pressure, has agreed to quit if peacekeepers come.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

U.S. authorities said on Monday that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. would pay $135 million and $120 million, respectively, to resolve an investigation into charges the banks helped Enron Corp. disguise loans. The settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will allow the two banks to avoid prosecution, but will force the banks to alter some of their business practices. Though the penalty paid by the two banks indicates that they are effectively guilty of participation in the Enron fraud the agreement allows them to deny guilt.

The European Central Bank is eliminating its holdings of debt issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two biggest U.S. providers of mortgage financing, and recommended that its national central banks do the same, according to a person who has seen the ECB`s recommendation. Freddie Mac is under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and federal prosecutors after overstating earnings, leading to the ouster of its top three managers.

The California Senate on Sunday approved a new budget nearly four weeks into the fiscal year that uses wide-ranging spending cuts and bonds but no tax increases to close a record $38 billion shortfall. The measure now moves to the Assembly where lawmakers are expected this week to take up the some $100-billion spending plan covering the fiscal year that began on July 1. The 27 to 10 vote comes days after Wall Street ratings agency Standard & Poor`s slashed California`s credit -- already the lowest among U.S. states -- to just above junk level because of the state`s fiscal and political mess. General fund spending in the budget is $70.8 billion, down $7.3 billion or 9.4 percent from the previous year. The plan also seeks to save around $1 billion by renegotiating the contracts of all state workers or through as many as 16,000 layoffs, Senate staff members said.


Comment:

Gold ended the day in positive territory as Fund and speculator interest returned and on strong physical demand while the U.S. dollar strengthened slightly. It couldn’t have helped Wall Street as J.P Morgan and Citigroup banks for all practical purposes admitted complicity in the Enron fraud by paying $255 million slap on the wrist in what amounts to “pocket change” for fines while denying culpability. Front page news in the financial publication “The Wall Street Journal” suggests that the long awaited U.S. economic recovery may not materialize after all as the states will continue to raise taxes and fees to make up for falling revenues as the larger U.S. economy falters. The article suggests that these new and increased taxes/fees will negate any potential benefit from the recent cuts in Federal Income taxes and various rebates approved by Congress and signed into law by President George W. Bush. In short, any expected Federal Income tax relief will be effectively offset by increased State taxes and fees. This is because the Federal government is allowed to operate with a budget deficit (this year in excess of $455 billion) while state budgets are constrained by budgets that are determined by current tax revenues and income.

A potentially crippling strike by South African gold miners was averted at the last minute yesterday as the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the Chamber of Mines came to an agreement over wage increases. South African gold miners called off their scheduled strike at the last minute as gold mining companies caved in on the miners demands for higher wages with other benefits such as “job grading” to be discussed by the two parties before year-end.

Silver too made impressive gains finishing the trading sessi…


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



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We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



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[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

Black Blade (07/28/03; 14:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 106433)
India’s Consuming Interest In Silver
http://www.scotiamocatta.com/IndiaArticle.pdf

Snippit:

Silver Harvest

Approximately 4,000 tonnes of silver are consumed annually in India, the vast majority of which is used in the production of ornamental items – jewellery, utensils and gift articles. Industrial uses play a smaller part, accounting for about 300 tonnes. In rural communities, silver, considered a hedge against inflation, also provides an investment function. Far more affordable than gold, it is purchased by small families in the form of jewellery, while more wealthy farmers prefer bars, generally 15-30 kilos in size, which come from Good Delivery bars that have been chopped up. Farmers reportedly bury the silver bars in their fields along with the crops. After a bad monsoon, or if there is a crop failure, it is said that silver becomes the harvest.

Black Blade: An interesting article for the silverbugs. (a pdf file)

[silverpwd]

Zwischenbericht:
Gold läuft recht prickelnd.
Zeit, dass die Indizes langsam abkacken .

[ThaiGuru]

July 28 - Gold $364.80 up $2.10 - Silver $5.20 up 13 cents

Gold Moves Higher Once Again, Silver ROARS!

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener"> " We shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end." " We shall not fail or falter; we shall not weaken or tire. Neither the sudden shock of battle nor the long-drawn trials of vigilance and exertion will wear us down. Give us the tools, and we will finish the job."….Winston Churchill

With the potential miner’s gold strike settled in South Africa, The Gold Cartel wasted little time in their CONCERTED effort to keep gold from moving up from here and thereby threatening pivotally important $370. Gold was taken down $2 very quickly in Asia. However, it ran into considerable spec buying.

With the dollar a bit lower this morning, gold came in on the soft side also, BUT silver came in higher and then took off. Gold followed suit, rallying as much as $5 as the funds poured into the Dec contract. The dollar was not a factor at all. Factors that do appear to be affecting the gold price are the surging silver market AND the cascading US bond market, which continues to disappear. Gold, silver and bond yields continue to move in a straight line higher.

Late in the day, the gold shares were hit by a bout of profit taking and gold dipped sharply, but silver held its ground and then began to advance. Many of the local gold shorts were forced to cover and gold closed midrange for the session.

We KNOW The Gold Cartel is DESPERATE to keep gold from taking out $370. The Comex open interest rose another 13,226 contracts on Friday. Over the last three trading sessions, it has risen an astounding 33,000+ contracts, which is an enormous increase. The specs are piling in and the cabal is throwing all they have to keep the price from exploding. With that sort of open increase, gold should be trading $390+. What contempt I have for the cabal creeps. They are nothing more than a bunch of white-collar thugs who have lied for years about gold to line their own pockets. Fortunately for our camp, their days are numbered and they will be found out.

In the short-term (as mentioned Friday), gold must accelerate out of this area soon and take out $370. Otherwise, the goon squad will cap, cap, cap again and wait to take gold down when outside markets are going their way. That mightn’t be so easy. If silver and bond yields keep moving up, or the stock market caves in, The Gold Cartel might just be forced to capitulate. We have been waiting for that to occur for a long time. Meanwhile, the gold fundamentals remain a "10+."

Gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

It took less than a week for silver to reach $5.20+ after the MIDAS headline of four trading days ago, making 3 ¼ year new highs on the session!!!

Silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

The silver open interest rose 2509 contracts to 103,946.

When commodity traders (such as myself or many of you Café members) look for a market to do something for years and it fails to do so, it is not unusual for that market to EXPLODE higher when the move finally gets underway. That’s because there is tremendous latent power in the unleashed market. My guess is that is what we have here with silver.

Isn’t interesting silver took off last week the day the news hit Eastman Kodak (huge silver user) was laying off over 5,000 workers due to poor business conditions. So much for certain fundamentals when it comes to silver. The end of the "rig" is just about everything.

$7 silver is in the cards.

I have had several requests to comment on the following:

Bill

Would like your opinion on steve savilles` comments, summarizing that when the fed starts raising rates, the gold bull is OVER he is widely quoted in the internet gold media, he is also very good here is his statement:

d) The length of time the gold price rallies after the Fed has made its final rate cut is determined by how long it takes the markets to BELIEVE that the Fed is going to do enough to rein-in the inflation. Sometimes this belief is established very quickly, but at other times a long sequence of rate hikes is needed. For example, during the second half of the 1970s it took a few years of rising short-term interest rates before this belief was established, whereas in 1983 confidence in the Fed and the US$ was established as soon as the Fed began to tighten.
At this time the risk in owning gold is relatively low because the Fed is still pondering the need for further rate cuts. However, after the Fed makes its first rate hike (probably some time during the first half of 2004) gold`s bull-market days will be numbered.

-END-

I will have to differ with Steve Saville on this one, just like I recently differed with Clive Maund’s call on the short-term demise of the gold price and cessation of gold share price rises because of the dramatic drop in the HUI almost two weeks ago.

The reasoning is the same. One change in a bullish factor for gold is only a pipsqueak item in the gold scenario. That big picture centers around a gold market which has been rigged for many years by a bunch of crooks. Gold is not slightly undervalued. It is grossly undervalued by many hundreds of dollars. If it were not for The Gold Cartel, the gold price would be well north of $600 today.

The essence of where the gold price goes hinges on the activities and demise of this Gold Cartel. The good news for us is they are in serious trouble. The gold basics again:

*the yearly supply/demand deficit is running around 1400 ton…

This is key:

*The gold industry only acknowledges central bank gold loans/swaps of 4600 to 5,000 tonnes. Gold producers continue to reduce their gold loans, so the official gold loan number should be contracting dramatically as the official hedge numbers have contracted by over 20% this past year. How has GFMS and the gold world dealt with this contraction? As far as I know, there have been no statements confirming the dramatic decrease in gold loans by GFMS, etc., which must be the case according to their own dictates and reports.

*There is a reason for the establishment’s low gold loan/swap numbers. The GATA camp knows the central banks are lying about their official gold reserves (see Heburn’s On the Record at The Matisse Table). The IMF has requested central banks disguise gold loans/swaps and record them as gold reserves. Therein lies the difference between the GATA numbers and those of the gold establishment world.

*The keeper of the gold establishment supply/demand numbers, GFMS makes, little accounting for the massive central bank gold loans/swaps other than those to the gold producers. They refuse to deal with the GATA camp studies by Reg Howe, James Turk and Frank Veneroso who come up with gold loan/swap numbers which are two to three time greater than their own. Each used different methodologies to come up with the much larger numbers. If any of these men were polled privately, they would guesstimate the number to be close to 15,000 tonnes, or more. Frank Veneroso thought the number was 10,000 tonnes FIVE YEARS AGO! I know because I worked with him at the time.

The bottom line is there is a massive undisclosed gold short position out there which must be dealt with as time goes by. There is only one way the scenario can be played out. The gold price must SOAR to ration future supply. Keep in mind The Gold Cartel crooks must ADD 100 tonnes per month of physical gold into the market. What do you think would happen to the price if they stop ADDING? You got it. The price EXPLODES. Well, what if they decide not only to stop, but to call in some of these massive shorts. Note, I did not say all of the shorts, just a portion of them!

Got the picture! The cabal bums are like a bunch of heroin addicts. The HAVE to continue to feed their fix or they will go into withdrawal. However, they have a big problem. Their heroin supply is running out. They are not going to do down to the bottom of the barrel. Some of the heroin (central bank gold) suppliers won’t allow that. They would face a revolt from their own citizens, especially as the price of gold keeps rising. The British are going to be under enough scrutiny for selling their gold at $280 to significantly diversify into dollar interest rate bearing investments. Great move!

It is only a matter of time before The Gold Cartel hits the wall and all heck breaks loose. The only way to solve the gold problem is to have the price rise sharply to slow down gold demand, which will be the case with buyers in Eastern countries. "Sticker shock" will set in. As the price advances sharply, they will cut back on their buying, at least for a period of time.

When the price really takes off, gold will enter the market in the form of scrap. Many of the poor in the world bought cheap gold from the dummy central bankers (who dumped it cheaply between $250 and $300 to perpetuate the fraud), and will sell their gold at $500 and $600 price levels. This scrap supply will allow shorts to do more covering and help to meet increased investment demand from the West.

A rise in the short-term interest rate in the US is a drop in the bucket in this big picture scenario. Besides, there are so many other bullish gold factors, which should become more accentuated in the months and years to come:

*Long-term rates are shooting up while short-term rates remain static, or could go lower.
*We have negative real interest rates in the US. With the Fed going bonkers, this picture should worsen.
*The astonishing cost of the Iraq war is adding to burgeoning US deficits. This is bad news for an already way overvalued dollar.
*As a result of the measures take to create false urgency to get the US into the war, America’s credibility has been badly tarnished. As more and more of our soldiers die and Iraqi citizens are killed, it will have a profound effect on our financial markets.
*The physical market is firm with demand increasing from India, Turkey, Korea, Russia, and Muslim/Arab countries. Then there is China, where gold demand is really kicking in. If the Chinese currency is revalued upwards, that demand will increase.
*Gold is catching fancy as a currency again, led by the Gold Dinar and the Russian Chevronet.
*World equity markets are due for a big tumble, one which may last for many years.

Gold is headed for $800/$1,000+ per ounce. If Steve S expects US Fed Fund rates to begin going up with gold at those prices, I might agree with him.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, July 28, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.96, PM $4.41, with world gold at $360.60 and $361.75. Above legal import point, although getting a little thin (most Indian States levy a 1% sales tax). Friday’s premiums were: AM $5.72, PM $4.42, with world gold at$359.65 and $360.70, also permitting legal imports. The willingness of the Indian physical market to follow world gold up is impressive, and in sharp contrast with the early weeks of this year, when world gold first attempted these levels.

Other signs of robust physical demand come from Turkey, where the Istanbul Gold Exchange weekly report indicates a rise in imports last week to 7.65 tonnes (amongst the highest this year, presumably transacted on the effort to push gold down around the previous weekend) and Thebulliondesk.com. This valuable service has picked up a Jordan Times story of heavy buying in the local market by Iraqi dealers, supporting the view that some of the recent growth in offtake does in fact stem from geopolitical anxieties. See

http://www.jordantimes.com/Mon/economy/economy2.htm

Japan adds little to the picture at present. TOCOM traded only the equivalent of 40,776 Comex lots, down 25% from Friday. Some commentators allege Japanese selling this morning: but open interest actually rose the equivalent of 659 Comex lots, and Nihon Unicom seems to feel the selling pressure came from elsewhere. (NY on Friday traded an immense 111,604 lots, huge even if the noise created by 22,000 switches is factored out. Open interest rose an immense 13,020 contracts).

Gold has, of course, staged over the last couple of weeks a performance which, by the miserable standards of the past few years, is little less than electrifying. Experienced observers, however, are even more taken by the amount of buying needed to achieve this. UBS Warburg estimates that Comex specs added c.2Mm ozs to their long after the CFTC number day last Tuesday, having added 1.4 Mm 0zs the previous week. Gold, after all, has been at this level before this year, in Jan/Feb and in May/June, quite apart from the fact that the dollar is weaker: had gold matched the dollar index since the turn of the year, it would have been over $373 this morning.

So where is all this selling coming from, with producers inc…

See:
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email&refer=home&si…

And of course the other difficulties connected to navigating the end of the bond bubble? If so, the navigator is going to have trouble given the condition of the physical market.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[emoba]

Hallo Thai Guru,

Super, Dein Thread

Will seit einiger Zeit auch Silber physisch kaufen
Probleme: 1) viele Banken bieten es nicht mehr an
2)Es gibt hölchstens 1-Kilo Barren

3) "Hauptproblem": Spanne der Banken ca. 25%
+16% Mehrwertsteuer

d.h. 45% Aufschlag auf den Silber(Rückkauf)wert


Ist dieser gewaltige 45%-Aufschlag beim physischen Erwerb von Silber unvermeidbar?

Danke für Deine Info!!!

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (9266, up 18) and the DOG (1735, up 5) continue to levitate and continue to ignore soaring long-term interest rates. Shades of 1987 anyone?

The US bond market is in free fall. It fell another point and ½ by the close to 108 `6.

Bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

Seems to me the dollar should be trashed any day now. The Fed has said it won’t raise short rates, but long rates are going berserk as market participants see coming inflation in the US. How is that an incentive to buy dollars? The dollar closed slightly higher today at 95.28, up .16.

How can this news item not be one of the most frightening ev…

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank is eliminating its holdings of debt issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two biggest U.S. providers of mortgage financing, and recommended that its national central banks do the same, according to a person who has seen the ECB`s recommendation.

The Frankfurt-based central bank, which sets interest rates for the 12 countries sharing the euro, gave its opinion at the last meeting of the 18-member governing council on July 10, said the person who declined to be named. ECB spokeswoman Regina Schueller declined to comment. Officials of the 12 central banks declined to comment..... –END-

We are talking about the ECB eliminated debt quasi-sponsored by the United States Government. No wonder the bond market has gone down almost every day for weeks. We now know who has been an instrumental cause in the US long-term rate rise.

More nauseating news from the powder puff SEC. A slap on the wrist again for the bullion-banking swindlers:

Citi, J.P. Morgan settle Enron case
Morgan paying $135 million, Citi settles for $120 million

12:44 PM ET July 28, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said Monday it has settled with Citigroup and J.P. Morgan over allegations the two banks helped bankrupt energy company Enron disguise loans.

J.P. Morgan (JPM: news, chart, profile) will pay $135 millio…

The settlements are related to several structured oil and gas financing transactions the banks provided to Enron (ENRNQ: news, chart, profile) and regulators determined were actually loans.

"Each institution helped Enron mislead its investors by char…

-END-

Citi and Morgan have played the same manipulation games with gold as they did with Enron. The pathetic gold industry has let them get away with this fraud and, in some cases, has encouraged their shenanigans.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $5.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements [TOMOs] to bring the total pool level to $22.5 Billion well below the pool`s 30-day moving average of about $29 Billion.

At this hour the DOW opened down a bit but has recovered to …

As we saw on Friday the primary dealers still had enough trading momentum to keep the DOW moving upward even though their repo fuel is waning. We must be prepared for these anomalies since this topping activity is the first cycle of the hypothesis and it is clearly not yet complete. The DOW may even go a bit higher. As strong an influence the repo pool is, it cannot immediately overwhelm the DOW`s upwards inertia.

Once we see an unmistakable down turn [As we certainly will soon] we can examine the lag more carefully for hidden markers. At this juncture it can be said that tops in the repo pool 30-day moving average should not be used as a trading timer. However, timing the bottom of the repo cycle seems possible­the DOW turned up within a few days of the Fed`s addition of permanent repurchase agreements in March. So the next bottom should be marked by that event.
Mike

Chuck checks in:

I don`t know how this day or week will end, but it has moved resolutely into the extreme realm of the absurd. The TICK figure is straining upward all day while the bond market continues its sharp descent and gold moving up boldly. Something must give, and my bet is on the market with something breathtaking.

Just took a glance at Barron’s at the newsstand and noticed that now they are rationalizing away the sharp drop in short interest and the remarkable bearish action in the VIX and VXN. Ultimate denial….

Looks like we are going to fill some gaps here on the golds. The most obvious one would be NEM around 35.35, but might even surprise to the 33.50 level. That should shake out the nouveau bulls. This is why we are told to buy on the dips not on the gaps up when it is most exciting. In the meantime, this stock market looks very tired and vulnerable.

Chuck

For years MIDAS has ranted the silver market was rigged, but unlike gold, I had no clue how the rigsters were effecting their scheme. Recently, a cavalcade of events has shed more light on what seems likely to have occurred.

What was obvious to me all these years, is that silver had to be controlled so the gold rig would work. The Gold Cartel couldn’t have silver fly to $7 with gold at $280. It would make their gold price manipulation too obvious. But, how did they do it? Could never figure it out.

The silver pros like David Morgan have decried the low price in a market which has had a supply/demand deficit for something like 13 years. Yet, the price never moved, or if it did, it went lower. As an experienced commodity trader, there was one thing I was fairly sure of: the perpetrators of the silver rig needed some sort of physical supply to carry out their price manipulation. Without that supply, they would be too vulnerable to a massive squeeze. Controlling the physical supply, or having access to it, is the key to manipulating any commodity market. Some of you may remember legendary commodity trader, Marc Rich, who was pardoned by President Clinton. His key to making billions was controlling the physical market. He could jerk the futures market around any time he wanted.

Anyway, last Thursday the MIDAS read this way:

Silver streaked all the way up to $5.15 before settling back. Spent a little time talking to Mike Bolser about silver. We spoke about the Chinese selling ending as a possible catalyst for this sudden burst in the silver price. We were told weeks ago it was coming to an end.

Two points to consider:

*If it has been the silver coming out of China which has kept the silver price so low the past couple of years, they must have made some kind of deal with the US for some other benefit for China. The Chinese are too smart a group of traders to dump silver so low when they could reap much higher prices. Perhaps that is how the rigging of the silver price was effected?

*It is interesting to note the price of silver took off right after the US made noises about the Chinese letting their currency rise. Greenspan spoke of it publicly too. Could the sudden rise in the price of silver be China’s response to unwanted jawboning from the US about their currency?

*****

Now let us review some of the MIDAS commentary about silver over the last 6 weeks:

June 11 - Gold $355.30 up $3.50 - Silver $4.50 up 4 cents

Silver plunged all the way down to $4.40 before reversing. Funds sold and the goon squad, led by JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, were buyers. Silver seems very much sold out to me and should start a significant move higher. FINALLY!

June 13 - Gold $356.50 up $3.60 - Silver $4.57 up 7 cents

Silver has bottomed and remains one of the great risk/reward commodity buys of all time. Morgan Stanley was the featured buyer again today as they continue to cover shorts. Maybe they have done so and are going long. The Comex open interest rose a substantial 3089 contracts yesterday to 83,378. This is very good news. The funds with a lousy silver trading record were the sellers yesterday. The trade was the buyer.

July 2 - Gold $351.30 unchanged - Silver $4.63 up 7 cents

Silver has made a short-term rounded bottom and has also formed a big picture rounded bottom.

Silver has been jerked around for so long, it is very difficult to do any kind of technical analysis that holds up. I have been looking for silver to take off for some time and it never does, thanks to the managers of this market. One day it will, and be a sight to behold. Morgan Stanley was a good buyer. Technically, silver doesn’t have any resistance until it reaches $4.95. That’s where it ought to go.

July 9 - Gold $343.30 down 70 cents - Silver $4.80 up 8 cents

It appears the serious silver move we have been looking for over a very long time is finally kicking in. Silver has rallied 7 days in a row, even as gold has been hit hard, down 5 days in a row. I can’t recall anything happening like this before in silver, as it relates to gold.

The funds keep buying silver and the trade keeps selling. Morgan Stanley continues to be a featured buyer. When silver breaks out above $4.88 key resistance (basis the Sep contract) and heads for $5, "the trade" will be very short and the specs very long. With silver controlled for so long, the trade is used to getting their way. That will end for the specs will finally have their day and take silver sharply higher. We will have a Commercial Signal Failure, which is when a SIZEABLE trade position is buried.

The silver open interest rose substantially yesterday to the tune of 3570 contracts to 81,775. There is room for at least 20,000 more specs to pile in to take silver through $5.

July 11 - Gold $344.50 up 20 cents - Silver $4.78 down 2 cents

*The silver open interest also rose sharply, even more so than gold on a relative basis, some 4032 contracts. The silver open interest is 89,641. Yesterday’s selling came out of Asia, most likely China. The good news is the Chinese physical supply overhang, which has been one of the factors plaguing silver, is RAPIDLY running out. That input is from the horse’s mouth.

July 22 - Gold $350.50 down 60 cents - Silver $4.77 up 6 cents

Gold open interest only rose 569 contracts to 188,123 on yesterday’s scamper, while silver’s rose a hefty 2338 contracts. Almost all the increase was due to an EFP (exchange for physical).

If the Sep silver contract takes out $4.90, it will roar!

*******

Many weeks ago the Morgan Stanley silver broker muttered something to the effect that "something has changed." This really struck me because this guy has been running the silver market and pocketing 20 to 30 cents at a clip for a very long time. I always felt he was in on the silver rig somehow. The guy was just too clever at selling highs and picking lows. Nobody is that good for that long without some kind of "heads-up" on the real inside deal in a market. All of a sudden he is making noise silver is going to $5.20 or higher. Why, I kept asking myself?

I think we now have a good idea why the Morgan Stanley silver trader was so gung-ho. He knew the supply the silver the price fixers were using to control their rigging operations was coming to an end. The evidence strongly suggests that supply was coming from China.

The point of going over all of this is there is no telling how high silver might go this year! The cat is out of the bag!

For a superb report on silver, please go to The Dos Passos Table and read James Turk’s Freemarket Gold & Money Report.

Three cheers for Richard Nachbar who wrote Coin Market Booms & The Importance of Gold for the COIN DEALER, the bible of the coin industry. Richard is a veteran Café member and GATA supporter. Much of the material he used came from the GATA camp and via his piece was circulated throughout the coin world all over America.

Some of the GATA material covered:

*Gold is money
*Clinton’s strong dollar policy and gold
*Dis…

Richard owns Richard Nachbar Rare Coins and has been a Professional Numismatist since 1973. His web site is www.coinexpert.com and his e-mail is: [e-mail]

Speaking of staunch GATA supporters, let’s hear it for the legendary Harry Schultz. Café members might like to check out his web site at: www.hsletter.com.

Harry was instrumental in raising money for GATA in the early going. Reg Howe and I had the pleasure of meeting Sir Harry at the FT gold show more than three years ago in Paris. What a delightful and charming character!

The following is an enlightening overview of what has been going on in US financial land and a preview of what is to come. Coming from a different perspective, it also highlights a big problem in the US, one GATA has focused on for years:

There has been too big a shift of power to the financial conglomerates in the US to the detriment of the rest of America, which the gold rig has been all about.

An Interview with Economist Michael Hudson

The Coming Financial Reality

By STANDARD SCHAEFER

http://counterpunch.org/schaefer07122003.html

MH: The large financial conglomerates are using their economic gains to break down public regulatory power so as to transfer economic control and resource allocation into their own hands. Yet their objective is simply to pursue the short-term trading gains, not to see savings invested in fixed capital formation.

To promote deregulation, financial lobbies and their academic public relations spokesmen have rewritten economic history. In so doing, they have turned it upside down…

-END-

I’m no Richard Russell but we certainly feel the same way about the outlook for gold and the best way to position oneself in the gold shares:

July 26. 2003 -- I`m going to start today`s site with a very significant chart borrowed from my good friends, the Aden sisters (www.adenforecast.com).

Here we see what I consider two of the most important trends in the world today. Or maybe I should call it a single trend. It`s the long-term and very subtle trend of real money, gold -- against the trend of paper or fiat money, the dollar.

Why do I say that the trend of gold is a "subtle" trend? I say it because from 1974 to 1980 gold was in a primary bull market, but from 1980 to 1999 gold was in a bear market. The subtle part was that even though gold was in a 19-year bear market, it nevertheless remained far above its 1974 price.

As for the dollar, you can see that it has remained below it long declining trendline. And more recently, the dollar has lapsed in what appears to be a new leg of its long-term bear market.

Now something "new" has been added to the equation. Gold commenced forming a massive base during the 1998-2000 period. A double bottom was etched out during 1998-99, and from there gold turned up. Following almost two decades of decline, a new bull market in gold was born. This was confirmed when, in May 2000, gold`s 20-month moving average crossed above it`s very long-term 40-month moving average.

Now we have not only a long-term trend of separation between gold and the dollar, but we have the gold/dollar separation accelerating as the new bull market in gold gathers steam, and as the bear tightens his grip on the dollar.

This is a very dangerous situation. What is means in the big picture is that the flow of funds is broadly out of dollars and towards real money -- gold.

What`s so fascinating and insidious about this process is that it`s happening without the understanding or even the recognition of the public. Even more amazing, the two trends are taking place without recognition by most professionals.

No, Wall Street is too focused on the continuing bear market (upside) correction in stocks, a correction that started in October 2002. Literally, the world is not seeing the forest because of the trees.

It`s truly remarkable to watch gold slowly lift off of its huge base, really a five year base covering the years 1998 to 2003. And it`s equally remarkable to hear the occasional almost angry comments from the media as gold rises weekly and more recently daily.

"How far can gold rise against the dollar?" I`m asked by subscribers. And my answer is that "I obviously don`t know. But I`m allowed to guess, and my guess is that -- in this bull market gold will ultimately rise further than anyone thinks possible. Before this gold bull market is over, gold will surprise even today`s tiny coterie of gold bulls."

I continue to suggest to my subscribers that this is "accumulation time" for the precious metals. Over the last week my gold advance-decline line has been recording new highs, HUI, the unhedged gold average, has confirmed and has also been hitting new highs. Finally, after years of frustrating action, many of the gold shares, as well as the metal, are beginning to act.well.

Again my advice (and I know many other analysts don`t agree with me) is to buy gold and the gold shares and accumulate -- rather than trade. Once you have the power of the primary trend behind you, it doesn`t pay to try to outsmart a bull market with in-and-out trading. Otherwise, you`re liable to find yourself "in" at the wrong time and "out" at the wrong time. At least that`s been my experience.

-END-

Received a call today from Norm Singleton at Congressman Ron Paul’s office. Congressman Paul has reintroduced his Bill, HR 2782, requesting the Treasury Secretary to inform Congress if US gold is to be mobilized in any way. I offered the help of the GATA camp if Congressman Paul would like any of us to come to Washington to present the gold issue to any members of his committee.

From the CEO of another one of my favorite exploration companies:

Hi Bill,

The current bond market meltdown is likely a very powerful indicator of events to come. This sell-off is very unusual as it runs counter to the typical seasonal effect for bonds. The fixed income sector has not seen such a strong bear market during the summer months since 1987 - the year of the great stock market crash.

The bond sell-off of 1987 was a very long and powerful bear market. In late July of 1987, I can remember pounding my fists on my trading desk in frustration wondering when the stock market would begin to go down, as bond yields were beginning to rise rapidly. The huge rise in fixed income yields eventually resulted in the August top in the equity markets. The bond market only found its bottom on the infamous Black Monday stock crash of October of 1987, when the Fed began its enormous reflation effort to "save" the financial system. The Friday following the stock market crash marked the start of the crash of the US Dollar against the D Mark, Yen and gold.

For all the media focus on the stock market, few investors realize that the fixed income sector truly dwarfs the equities markets. Certainly, the ECB news regarding the recommendation to sell FNMA issues is likely a watershed event. The current bond bear market is potentially far more damaging than that of 1987, as bond durations are considerably higher. A yields rise, the high durations result in much larger Dollar losses in investment principals than was the case in the higher interest rate environment of 1987. Is weakness in the fix income sector a harbinger of future events in the equity, FX and precious metals markets? Will we witness a top in the equity markets in August? Will the big up moves in gold and the currencies come in the wake of a stock market crash this October?

Investor complacency is now rampant as they still have great faith in the ability of the Fed to again "save" the day. The US has gone through several reflations since October 1987 and these inflationary rescues are the cause for the complacency. With the maturing of the Euro, the arrival of the Islamic Dinar and the talk of a SE Asian currency modeled on the Euro, I truly wonder if the Dollar can survive another massive reflation?

The Fed may again "save" the financial system, but lose the Dollar.

Nick Ferris

J-Pacific Gold Inc.
[e-mail]
www.jpgold.com

TSXV Symbol: JPN

The gold shares shot up early with the HUI rocketing all the way up to 170.65, but then succumbed to profit-taking after a moonshot up from 140. The HUI closed at 166.48, down .55, while the XAU sank 1.21 to 83.06. Barrick was the weak sister early, finishing the day at $18.35, down 33 cents. Even though the HUI closed lower, it roared back off its lows on the close.

As stated above, The Gold Cartel is desperately trying to cap gold so it can prevent it from taking out $370, which might detonate various financial market problems. History dictates they will win in the short-term. However, my guess is history will not repeat for the following reasons:

*The Working Group on Financial Markets has clearly lost con…

Even if The Gold Cartel does get their way for the moment, gold should not stay down for very long. Once gold takes out $370, it ought to run to $400 very quickly.

The trading sessions this week should be very volatile and quite exciting.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[NaturalBornKieler]

@emoba:

Der Kauf physischen Silbers bei der Bank ist nach wie vor die billigste legale Möglichkeit, wenn man die Barren mit nach Hause nehmen will (und das sollte man!). Und was ist an 1kg-Barren auszusetzen? Größere sind unhandlich und schwer zu veräußern, kleinere in Relation zu teuer.

Natürlich wäre der Verkauf von Silber an die Bank ungünstig, denn der Spread ist tatsächlich sehr hoch. Aber wenn man mal verkaufen will, kann man auch die Barren recht gut bei ebay verkaufen. Bei ebay wird in der Regel etwa der Bank-Verkaufspreis gezahlt. (Das bedeutet wiederum, dass ebay zum Kaufen physischen Metalls ziemlich ungünstig ist. Denn erstens muss man dort noch Transportkosten hinzurechnen, und zweitens kann man da schon mal eher behumst werden als bei einer Bank.)

Wenn jemand eine Quelle für physisches Silber hat, die billiger ist als ne Bank, würde mich das auch interessieren ...

Als Richtschnur kann man immer die Dresdner-Bank-Preise nehmen:

https://www.dresdner-privat.de/index.html?nav=38&con=http://…

NBK

[ThaiGuru]

@emoba

Habe bis heute abend leider keine freie Zeit mehr!

Es geht aber auch noch billiger als auf der Bank Silber zu kaufen.

Werde Dir heute abend die Details bekanntgeben.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Wie war das jetzt schon wieder?

Ach ja, beim Gold und Silber wurden "Gewinne" mitgenommen.

Wenn ich mir die Silber und Gold Preise so anschaue, kommt bei mir die Frage auf, warum den immer just gerade dann Gewinne mitgenommen werden, wenn der Silber-, oder Goldpreis gerade im Begriff ist eine wichtige Chart Marke zu überschreiten.

Nach den heutigen "Gewinnmitnahmen" beim Silber, muss vermutlich mit weiter steigenden Silber Leasrates gerechnet werden.

[ThaiGuru]

@emoba

Falls Du mehrwertsteuerfrei Silber kaufen möchtest, informiere Dich mal auf dieser deutschsprachigen Homepage:

http://www.weigl-fdl.de

Falls bei Dir die Erscheinungsform des Silbers eine untergeordnete Rolle spielt, und Du eine grössere Menge an Silber kaufen willst, könnte der Kauf von sogenanntem Industrie Silber in Pearl Form eine gute möglichkeit darstellen, die horrenden Margen der Banken zu umgehen.

Noch günstiger kommst Du an Silber, wenn Du selbst in sogenannten "Gratis Anzeigern" oder "Fundgruben Zeitschriften" inserate schaltest, und Kauf Gesuche für Silber Barren, oder falls Du den Aufwand nicht scheust, alt Silber zum Ankauf suchst.

In der Schweiz bietet sich bis auf weiteres auch der Ankauf der alten silberhaltigen, ausser Kurs gesetzten Münzen an. Falls man diese zum nominal Kurs ankauft, hat man praktisch überhaupt kein Risiko, da diese Silber Münzen meines Wissensstandes nach, immer noch von der schweizerischen Nationalbank zum Nominalwert zurückgenommen wird.

Wenn jemand einen alten silbernen "Fünflieber" (5.- Franken) für 5.- Franken, ankauft kann er selbst im unwahrscheinlichen Falle, dass die Silberpreise Fallen nichts verlieren, weil er, zumindest solange die *SNB* diese Münzen zum Nominalwert zurücknimmt nichts verlieren kann.

Falls die Silberpreise weiter ansteigen, werden diese silbernen Münzen durch den Silbergehalt bald wieder mehr Wert sein als der Nominalwert.

1978 übrigens, wurde für den Silber Fünflieber bis zu 25.- Franken von den Händlern im Ankauf bezahlt.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Sterling Silver Mining steigt munter weiter, bei ansteigenden Umsätzen!! Zur Zeit plus 19.44%, bei 2.15 Dollar !!

Stand heute schon mal kurz auf 2.35 Dollar

STERLING MINING (Other OTC:SRLM.PK)
Last Trade
12:22pm · 2.15 Change
+0.35 (+19.44%) Prev Cls
1.80 Open
1.90 Volume
512,600

Day`s Range
1.85 - 2.35

[erdede]

Hallo Thai Guru,
kannst Du mir einen Link nennen, wo ich das Gold- und Silbergeschehen verfolgen kann?
Comdirect hat umgestellt.

Vielen Dank im voraus.

Gruss
erdede

[mickym [VIP]]

@erdede

Wenn Du Charts meinst, dann nehme ich die Kitco- Charts

http://www.kitco.com/charts

P.S.

Findest Du es nicht auch eine Unverschämtheit diese Comdirect Seite - nur nebenbei, gibt ja genügend Threads.

Gruss Mic

[svc]

@asking guys for pos und pog kurse

thai hat doch alle links zu den neuen comba pos und pog .fx charts eingefügt. danke dafür!

einfach auf den chart klicken und den url kopieren. dann als favourit marken und alles ist wieder gut.

die comba gibt gute infos, allerdings seit neustem nun aus london. hihihihihi... ein schelm wer....

svc

[erdede]

@mickym

ja, finde ich auch, aber was kann man da machen,
ja kitco kenne ich, aber die werte scheinen mir nicht immer genau zu sein, manchmal ist auch die Seite nicht verfügbar..
Danke Dir für Deine Mühe.

@svc

danke für den Tip
svc= supervisor call??


erdede

[wiewowas]

Im Zusammenhang "physischer Silberkauf" habe ich eine Frage.
Mitte letzter Woche habe ich drei DEGUSSA- 1000g-Barren
günstig bei Ebay ersteigert.
In den Barren, die ich schon hatte, war jeweils eine individuelle Nummer eingestanzt. Bei den drei neuen
fehlt diese Nummer.
Warum ist das so? Die Nummer ist doch hoffentlich kein
"Muß" für die Echtheit?

Gruß
wiewowas

[svc]

nöööö, wir sind böse händler. nichts mehr, wir führen in die irre und denken nur an unser ackount! aberwas wir sagen meinen wie ernst!

svc

[emoba]

Hallo ThaiGuru UND NaturalBornKieler,


Danke für die Infos,

Denke ich bin jetzt handlungsfähig und werde den Silberüberschuß ein bißchen reduzieren helfen

p.s. Wo liegt der Haken bei "Apex Silver Mines (SIL)?
Bin erst gestern auf den Wert gestoßen (als Silbergreenhorn )
merci

[Lcherlich]

@erdede

Es gibt doch auch noch ino.com:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=s&w=1&t=l&a=2

[ThaiGuru]

@wiewowas

Interessante Frage, würde mich selbst auch interessieren!

Haben alle 1 Kilo Degussa Silber Barren eine Seriennummer, oder nicht?

Falls uns die Frage hier im Thread niemand schlüssig beantworten kann, müssen wir wohl der DEGUSSA eine E-Mail Anfrage schicken.

Zur Echtheit von Silberbarren: Man sollte schon Wert darauf legen, die Herkunft des Silbers genau zu kennen, oder zumindest beim Kauf darauf zu bestehen, dass ein Kaufbeleg einer Bank, oder eines Händlers beiliegt. Dadurch gestaltet sich auch ein evtl. späterer Verkauf bedeutend einfacher.

Kann Dich jedoch be(un)ruhigen! Silber Barren Fälscher werden vermutlich eher dazu neigen, auch die Seriennummer zu fälschen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Möchte eine Board Mail Anfrage an mich, hier im Thread beantworten!

Gruss

ThaiGuru


------ xxxx schrieb: --------


Sterling Silver Mining

Shit - ich habe es verpaßt... Meinst, Du man sollte auch noch zu diesen Kursen ein paar Stück ins Depot legen ? Oder erst auf Rücksetzer warten ?
Habe ja, wie Du weißt, im Silberbereich bislang seit ca. 1 1/2 Jahren: SSRI, HL, CDE, PAAS , WHR etc.....

Gruß
xxxx

**********************************************************
Hallo XXX

Ja so kann es halt gehen.

Habe selbst Sterling vor über 2 Jahren gekauft, damals wollte die SRLM keiner haben, von Konkurs war die Rede, etc., ca. 25 Cents hat sie mich gekostet. Bei ca. 50 Cents habe ich sie zum ersten mal im Thread vorgestellt, bei ca. 70 Cents, als sie die Uebernahme von Shunshin Mining bekannt gab zum 2. Mal.

Ob es jetzt noch sinnvoll ist bei einem Preis von 2.15 Dollar, einige Aktien davon zu erwerben?

Auf jeden Fall, wenn man an höhere Silberpreise glaubt.
Falls die Silberpreise wieder Erwarten jedoch unten bleiben, ist die Sterling Mining jetzt aber schon eher zu teuer. Eine stärkere Preis Korrektur ist auch nicht auszuschliessen, ist jedoch meiner Ansicht nach nicht unbedingt zwingend, da natürlich noch viel Preis Fantasie drin ist in der Aktie.

Jedesmal, wenn ich eine Gold, oder Silber Mine im Thread vorstelle, hat das seine Gründe. Ich stelle keine Mine vor, von der ich denke, dass sie keine Chance hat. Eher selten gebe ich auch einen Kommentar zu einer von mir vorgestellten Mine, wie z.Bsp. "Strong Buy" ab.

Vier Minen die ich ebenfalls im Thread vorgestellt habe, zwei davon sogar mit "strong buy" hast Du anscheinend auch noch nicht gekauft. Die erste Mine *THL* ist die dringlichste. Zwei sind Gold Explorer. Die 4., Atlas Mining, *ALMI*, ist ein 100 Jahre alter US Silber Produzent, der wegen den tiefen Silberpreisen, die Produktion bis wieder Silber Preise vorherrschen, die den Abbau rentabel machen, stillgelegen musste. Habe übrigens ALMI zusammen mit Sterling Mining damals zeitgleich gekauft.

Sterling ist jetzt halt nach der Uebernahme der in Konkurs gegangenen Sunshine Mining zuerst erwacht. Falls gute Bohrergebnisse kommen, oder die Gold und Silberpreise massiv ansteigen werden, bist Du auch von Anfang an voll dabei wenn`s lost geht, falls Du alle diese unten aufgeführten Titel kaufst, und viel Geduld mitbringst, sind Deine Chancen eher besser, als wenn Du jetzt noch nur einige Sterling Mining kaufst.

Bei Sterling Mining musste ich 2 Jahre warten. Noch vor cirka einem Jahr war *SRLM* nur noch die Hälfte Wert vom Betrag den ich ürsprünglich dafür bezahlt habe.

Auch bei der von mir in meinem Thread Thread: Kein Titel für Thread 0641908227192916506027192937352981191076064906 zum Kauf empfohlenen ehemaligen *Aurora Gold*, die heute von Abelle übernommen wurde, stand ich zuerst 18 Monate lang im Verlust. Heute hat sich diese Investition etwa versechsfacht.

Jetzt könnte ich meine Investition in SRML bereits zum fast 9 fachen Betrage verkaufen, falls ich das möchte! Ich will aber sicher nicht verkaufen, denn die Preise von Sterling Silber werden weiter steigen, zumindest dann, wenn die Silber Preise weiter steigen, und davon gehe ich aus.

Es reicht theoretisch auch schon, wenn nur einer dieser unten aufgeführten Titel ausbricht. Falls Du kaufen willst, ausser bei THL, alle Titel mit Limit kaufen, aber nicht zu eng setzen, da bei diesen (noch!) tiefen Peisen, fast keine Stücke zu haben sind.

TONGKAH HARBOUR (SET:THL.BK), KING`S BAY GOLD (CDNX:KBG.V), VENCAN GOLD CP (CDNX:VCG.V), und der Silber Play ATLAS MINING CO (OTC BB:ALMI.OB)

Hier die neuesten Kurse und Charts dieser vier Minen:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=THL.BK%2CKBG.V%2CVCG.V%2CAGZ.AX…

Und bitte nicht vergessen, alle Titel sind als Langfristanlage gedacht, nicht nur als kurzen Zock.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[hwc]

zu silberkurse im comdirect:

ich finde die aktuellen kurse, wenn ich bei der suche `slv.fx1` eingebe.

lg

HWC

[ThaiGuru]

July 29 - Gold $361.40 down $3.40 - Silver $5.16 down 4 cents

Bonds Continue To Collapse

"Let no man turn aside, ever so slightly, from the broad pat… --Charles Dickens

Most of the financial markets were quiet in early US trading. Then, this shocker hit the tape at 10 EDT:

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence declined unexpectedly to the lowest in four months, a private group`s report showed, as assessments of the job market fell to the weakest in almost a decade.

The New York-based Conference Board`s consumer confidence index plunged to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June. The index measuring consumers` attitudes about conditions six months from now dropped for the first time since March, during the Iraq war, to 86.4 from 96.4, and the index measuring sentiment about the current economy fell for a third month to 61.9 from 64.2. –END-

The pundits had predicted the consumer confidence number to rise. This surprise news should have been bond friendly, stock market bearish, dollar bearish and gold bullish.

What happened? After an early stock sell-off, the market rallied to go up on the day before fading late. Bonds were absolutely crushed after a faint rally, the dollar rose slightly and gold was tagged.

Very strange. Of course, we know how desperate the bad guys are to turn gold back from $370 and to turn the massive new tech specs into sellers. Fundamentals won’t mean anything if those clowns get their way.

Gold`s correction is only normal after shooting straight up from $340. However, it cannot languish here for too long. Yesterday’s open interest rose another 4563 contracts to 230,872. It is only 15,000+ contracts away from the highs made earlier this year when gold roared up to $388. Once gold was turned back from those heights by the PPT, 75,000 contracts were shed from the open interest on the ensuing spec liquidation and gold fell $69 per ounce. Around 35,000 new longs were put on in the last four trading sessions. A move much below $357 will have most of them as losers. The specs` tech systems will begin to flash bearish sell signals much below that price level. One sell signal could easily kick off another with such sizeable open interest. That’s why gold must move up quickly from here.

Two constructive factors for gold are the continued strength in silver and the horrendous bond action. Silver closed on its highs of the day after being down 16 cents, an impressive comeback. Goldman Sachs was the featured buyer.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, July 29, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $4.31, PM $5.14, with world gold at $364.60 and $363.50. Marginal, and adequate, for legal imports. Standard London reports that "Good-sized" buy orders are known to exist at the $360 level: they do not say these are Indian, but it does look from the premium behaviour like the level at which the Indians will become aggressive.

TOCOM continues politely detached from the uproar in gold. Volume did increase, by 57% to the equivalent of 64,128 Comex lots, with the active contract rising by 14 yen, but $US gold was virtually unchanged (- 35c). Some newswire reports speak of Japanese selling, but in fact open interest rose by the equivalent of 1457 Comex lots, giving the impression of a languid validation of Western Hemispheric action. (NY yesterday traded 101,040 lots with open interest rising 4,563 lots: in the last three days Comex has added 30,000 contracts of open interest and TOCOM only 2100 (equivalent). Arguably this hesitancy, a sharp contrast to the January surge, mitigates the loudly advertised overbought condition developing in NY.)

The turbulence on gold in the West has brought the alert commentators at UBS to an important conclusion:

"The sharp increases in Comex Gold open interest over the pa…

…. If this is the true, then Comex speculative long positions could increase up to the 14 million ounces net long seen in early February, or even further"

(JB italics)
This happy thought is supported by a remark of Standard Bank London’s:

"gold…tested a high of 367.50 bid on the back of a fund buyi…

Given the ferocity – and the importance – of the discussions currently going about the Bond market, as noted yesterday, this development is quite plausible. And, of course, it is meeting the usual response: heavy so-called "professional" selling on the highs (with no sign of accelerating producer sales).

Today the ECB disclosed an unusually heavy – 3.4 tonne - sal…

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[niemandweiss]

The Fed`s Bluff
by Rick Ackerman

On the suggestion of an impassive subscriber, effective Thursday I will be substituting Broadcom (BRCM) for the moribund IBM, whose flatline price action has yielded precious few trading opportunities for us over the last six months. Meanwhile, an article at Prudent Bear from Marshall Auerback puts some meat on an assertion I made here the other day -- that the spike in ten-year Treasury yields was caused, not by expectations of a robust economic recovery, but by wholesale dumping of the bonds triggered inadvertently by Mr. Greenspan’s most recent speech. Prior to that, there was effectively a "Greenspan put" on bonds. It came implicitly from the Fed’s assurance, given by Ben Bernanke several months earlier, that the Fed would keep interest rates low across-the-board to help keep deflation at bay. In retrospect we know that the Fed hoped jawboning alone would do the job. Now however, the Fed, evidently anticipating that its omnipotence in the bond market will come increasingly under question, is trying to pre-empt any hint of panic by saying that deflation is no longer a big concern, and that interest-rate priorities have therefore changed. Auerback says this latest bluff is going to be harder to promote than the last, since there is substantial toxic fallout, including the huge losses suffered by institutional buyers of bonds who had trusted the Fed`s earlier assurance.

To be sure, the new, who`s-afraid-of-deflation bluff became technically more difficult to promote with the announcement last week that the European Central Bank would no longer be a buyer of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bonds. The story was not played up by the financial press, and I might have missed it completely if not for the newsclip sent to me by a Denver area subscriber, who sees it as the biggest economic story of the year. To the extent that it pushes the housing and mortgage re-fi markets closer to cliff’s edge, I would tend to agree.

Eurobank `Nuts`?

One subscriber who evidently does not, thinks the Eurobank is nuts to pass up the relative safety of Fannie and Freddie bonds. He writes, "The ECB is out of their minds. They consider CD`s from state-sponsored regional banks ‘safe,’ when those banks are constructively insolvent. Example: Most of the landesbanks and hypobanks in Germany that have full corporate guarantees, including 100% principal maturity guarantees against [mortgage-backed securities] where the underlying borrower still has 20 years to pay. In other words, the pfandbriefe market in Germany is like Freddie Mac debentures, but claims to be MBS. Imagine if all the MBS had corporate guarantees -- then I would worry about FNM and FRE. Keep in mind that this applies only to the corporate bonds issued by these entities, not the MBS. I`ll stick to my handy schedule of debt collapse, and the owner-occupied mortgages are still last on that list. C, JPM and GE will be Chapter 11 first.


Other Scandals

The subscriber notes as well that "There are many other financial scandals to look at first -- for example, the recent ‘adjustment’ of the deficit up from $340 billion to $455 for the fiscal year ending Sep 30. As you know, I believe the deficit is the amount the debt increases, and that`s going to be nearly 75% higher than the $340 figure according to the OMB. Even using their figures, the spin doctors` BS about percentage of GDP gets washed out, since the ‘record’ deficit year - 1983 - had 6% of GDP as a deficit. However, if you take the $598B that Federal debt will increase, including some serious pilfering from Social Security and Medicare, then you`re pretty much at the worst deficit spending since WW II. But hey, those aren`t taxes, right? They only hit the first dollar of W-2 income, not that all-important unearned investment income that helps the economy so much better than those wasted salary and wage dollars."

To return to my earlier statement, that the Fed will have its hands full trying to make investors believe it is no longer concerned about deflation, here is Marshall Auerback, in fine form as always: "…The more the Fed has studied targeting bond yields, the more difficult it has looked…Buying bonds might be a useful signal to the markets, much like intervention in foreign-exchange markets. But it might fail if the markets viewed the world differently than the Fed. Furthermore, the Treasury market is now inextricably linked to other markets, such as for interest-rate derivatives, mortgage-backed securities and foreign exchange. Nobody knows how an artificial target yield enforced by the Fed would ripple through those markets.


Dollar Risk


"As [a recent Wall Street Journal] article suggests, in holding bond yields constant, the Fed would ultimately have to buy all the bonds, which of course in the end they would be very unlikely to do. Above all else, there is the issue of capital flight by foreigners, as they begin to understand the full implications of recourse to unconventional policy measures. Such a move poses tremendous risks for the dollar in particular, because of the increased likelihood of currency debauchment through excess liquidity creation. This is a highly germane consideration for an economy on the threshold of emerging market style debt trap dynamics.


"So the Fed has apparently called its own bluff and backed off in the process. Many market pundits have taken the line that, having done no more than send up a trial balloon in respect of unconventional measures (whilst refraining from actually resorting to extremely unorthodox policy), the Fed’s decision not to go down this route creates minimal problems. A debate was had and the issue has been resolved; no harm, no foul.


Rates Soaring, But Not Economy


"The problem of course is that the Fed’s persistent threat (promise?) to embrace the unorthodox and unconventional has until recently unleashed a speculative frenzy in the bond market. Messrs. Greenspan, Bernanke, Reinhart, and others have induced market participants employing leverage to bid up bond prices in a way they would not have done if there was not a promise of a Bernanke put to peg bond prices indefinitely. Today’s bond market has therefore been a cynical leveraged trade. The leveraged participants are therefore very weak hands. The very abrupt and deep reversal in the bond market that has occurred in recent weeks amidst only a slight improvement in the tone of the economy testifies to this: the 10-yr. U.S. Treasury now yields 4.15% to maturity, down from a peak of 3.7% -- and investors are beginning to exit their bond mutual funds, according to the latest weekly data from AMG. This marks the first phase of bond redemptions since December 2002."


Auerback notes, finally, that the big loser in the recent collapse of bond prices will be the average American, not the big bondholder: "To be sure, the average American consumer has little conception of a ‘Bernanke Put’, and is therefore unlikely to recognize the impact of Mr. Greenspan’s recent testimony. The problem lies more in the real economic impact of sharply rising bond yields. The recent bond rally occurred, less because of genuine fears of deflation, more because cynical professionals felt that they could exit the market, perhaps with some help from the Fed, before the inevitable decline in bond prices materialized. The whole bond rally became another variant of the Greater Fool Theory, but in contrast to Kaletsky, we believe it is the leveraged American consumer who remains the biggest loser here, rather than the Bigger Fools still holding long bonds."

Free Webinar Next Tuesday


MarketWise instructor Sam Seiden will present a free seminar next Tuesday morning, "How Professionals Use Support and Resistance" to get an edge. Sam will go beyond basic trade set-ups to encompass concepts that you will be able to use in any market environment. The seminar will be held on August 5 beginning at 9 a.m. EDT. You can register or obtain more-detailed information about this and other online courses by going to the following URL:

[Sig]

Ein aufmerksamer Leser schrieb mir folgendes: „1987 hatte ich rechtzeitig mit einem Crash gerechnet und verlor trotzdem immens viel Geld. Ich hatte am Tag des Crash 100% Barmittel und ging an diesem Tag massiv in Goldminen rein. Es sollte einer meiner großen Fehler werden. Denn am Crashtag hielten sich die Gold-Aktien, am nächsten Tag aber halbierten sich die Kurse! Was ich nicht voraussah war, dass wenn Renten und Aktienmärkte zusammenbrachen, dann alles was noch irgendwie Gewinn versprach massiv verkauft wurde! Wenn sich diese Szenario also wiederholt, so ist auch mit der Wiederholung der Mineneinbrüche zu rechnen, obwohl ich für Gold mehr als fest gestimmt bin.“

wellenreiter-invest.de

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,258978,00.html



NOBELPREISTRÄGER AKERLOF ÜBER BUSH

" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Unsere Regierung wirft das Geld einfach weg"

Arme werden benachteiligt, Sozialprogrammen droht der Kollaps: Der US-Ökonom George Akerlof erklärt die Steuer- und Schuldenpolitik der Regierung Bush für verhängnisvoll. Im SPIEGEL-ONLINE-Interview spricht der Nobelpreisträger über das Risiko eines Staatsbankrotts - und sieht "die Zeit für zivilen Ungehorsam gekommen."

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Professor Akerlof, offiziellen Prognosen zufolge fährt die US-Bundesregierung in diesem Fiskaljahr ein Defizit von 455 Milliarden Dollar ein. Das wäre zahlenmäßig das größte der amerikanischen Geschichte - aber George W. Bushs Budgetdirektor nennt das Fehl "kontrollierbar". Sehen Sie das auch so?

Präsident Bush: "Er hat außerordentlich unverantwortlich gehandelt"

George A. Akerlof: Langfristig gesehen ist ein Defizit dieses Umfangs nicht zu kontrollieren. Wir bewegen uns in eine Phase hinein, in der ab etwa 2010 die Generation der "Baby Boomer" in Rente geht. Das wird die Sozialprogramme Social Security, Medicare und Medicaid erheblich belasten. In solch einer Phase sollten wir sparen.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Also wäre Bush gut beraten, wieder einen Etatüberschuss anzustreben?

Akerlof: Das wäre im Augenblick wohl unmöglich. Es gibt ja einerseits die Ausgaben für den Irak-Krieg - den ich für unverantwortlich halte. Andererseits gibt es eine Konjunkturkrise und den Wunsch, die Wirtschaft fiskalpolitisch anzuregen. Das ist durchaus legitim. Deshalb brauchen wir auf kurze Sicht ein Defizit - aber sicher nicht jenes, das wir jetzt haben.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Weil es zum großen Teil nicht durch Investitionen entsteht, sondern durch Steuersenkungen?

Akerlof: Eine kurzfristige Steuerermäßigung für die Armen wäre sogar sinnvoll. Es wäre so gut wie sicher, dass sie das Geld ausgeben. Das aktuelle und das drohende Defizit wirken aber weniger stimulierend als möglich wäre - unsere Regierung wirft das Geld einfach weg.

Wir bräuchten erstens ein Defizit, das klar auf den derzeitigen Abschwung abzielt. Unseres erstreckt sich weit in die Zukunft, da viele Steuersenkungen verzögert in Kraft treten und wahrscheinlich fortbestehen. Uns drohen rote Zahlen so weit das Auge reicht. Diese Dauerhaftigkeit des Defizits macht seine kurzfristig stimulierende Wirkung zunichte.

Ökonom Akerlof:"Die Regierung sagt dem amerikanischen Volk nicht die Wahrheit"

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Und zweitens stören Sie sich daran, dass die Steuervorteile vor allem den Reicheren zu Gute kommen?

Akerlof: Die Reichen brauchen das Geld nicht und werden es wohl bloß in geringerem Umfang ausgeben. Vermutlich sparen sie einfach mehr. Außerdem ist es besser situierten Familien in den USA in den vergangenen zwanzig Jahren sehr gut ergangen, während die ärmeren zurückgefallen sind. Die Umverteilungseffekte dieser Steuerpolitik gehen also in die absolut falsche Richtung. Am schlimmsten ist die Senkung der Dividendenbesteuerung - sie nutzt vorwiegend den Wohlhabenden, das ist nicht zu rechtfertigen.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Präsident Bush sagt, die Reform der Dividendensteuer stütze den Aktienmarkt - und das treibe die Wirtschaft insgesamt an.


Zweiter Teil:


"Unsere Regierung wirft das Geld einfach weg"" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Die schlimmste Regierung in mehr als 200 Jahren"

"Unsere R… (2)

Akerlof: Das ist vollkommen unrealistisch. Wachstumsmodelle legen nahe, dass der Effekt unbedeutend sein wird. Sogar das Budgetbüro des Kongresses (CBO), eine der Regierung nahe stehende Stelle, ist zu einem ähnlichen Schluss gekommen.

Budgetbelastung Krieg: "Sie fangen ihn an, und ums Geld bitten sie hinterher"

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Anfang des Jahres hat Bush bei einer US-Tournee für ein Steuersenkungspaket geworben, das noch umfangreicher war als jenes, das der Kongress dann abgesegnete. Damals versprach er, dass 1,4 Millionen neue Jobs entstehen würden. War das realistisch?

Akerlof: Die Steuersenkung wird sich in gewissem Maß positiv auf den Arbeitsmarkt auswirken. Das steht aber in keinem Verhältnis zu den langfristig enormen Kosten. Hinzu kommt, dass die Republikaner in ihren Budgetprognosen eine große Zahl wichtiger Faktoren nicht berücksichtigen. Noch im März hat das CBO geschätzt, dass sich der Überschuss im kommenden Jahrzehnt auf eine Billion Dollar summieren würde. Diese Prognose ging - neben anderen fragwürdigen Annahmen - davon aus, dass die Ausgaben real konstant bleiben. Das ist noch nie eingetreten. Angesichts der Steuersenkungen muss man realistischerweise bis 2013 ein Defizit von insgesamt über sechs Billionen Dollar erwarten.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Vielleicht ist Ihre Regierung einfach schlecht im Rechnen?

US-Börse NYSE: "Der Effekt wird unbedeutend sein"

Akerlof: Es gibt einen systematischen Grund: Sie sagt dem amerikanisc…

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Wenn das so ist - warum ist Ihr Präsident dann noch populär?

Akerlof: Aus irgendeinem Grund erkennt die amerikanische Öffentlichke…

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Was passiert, wenn der ausbleibt?

Akerlof: Kommende Generationen und schon die Bürger in zehn Jahren werden mit massiven öffentlichen Defiziten und riesiger Staatsverschuldung konfrontiert sein. Dann haben wir die Wahl: Unsere Regierung kann dastehen wie die eines sehr armen Staates, mit Problemen wie der Gefahr eines Staatsbankrotts. Oder wir müssen Programme wie Medicare und Social Security gravierend beschneiden.

Das Geld, das jetzt den Wohlhabenden zukommt, würde also durch Kürzungen bei Programmen für die Älteren zurückgezahlt. Die sind aber darauf angewiesen. Nur unter den reichsten 40 Prozent der Bevölkerung gibt es überhaupt nennenswerte eigene Einkünfte im Alter.

Akerlof-Partnerin Yellen mit Ex-Präsident Clinton: "Meine Frau ist besser geeignet - aber ich würde jedes Amt annehmen"

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Ist es möglich, dass die Regierung vor neuen Kriegen zurückschreckt, weil das Bundesdefizit so groß ist?

Akerlof: Die Regierung müsste den Schuldenstand bedenken, und die Militärausgaben sind bereits hoch. Aber das würde sie im Zweifelsfall nicht sonderlich abschrecken. Sie fangen den Krieg an - und ums Geld bitten sie hinterher.

Eine andere Folge der Verschuldung ist wahrscheinlicher: Wenn es eine neue Rezession gibt, werden wir keine stimulierende Fiskalpolitik mehr betreiben können, um Vollbeschäftigung zu erhalten. Bisher bestand ein großes Maß an Vertrauen in den amerikanischen Staat. Die Märkte wussten, dass er seine Schulden zurückzahlt. Diese Ressource hat die Regierung vergeudet.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Werden die Zinsen wegen der Verschuldung anziehen und die Wirtschaft abwürgen?

Akerlof: Auf die kurzfristigen Zinsen wird das Defizit keine bedeutenden Auswirkungen haben. Sie sind ziemlich niedrig, und unsere Notenbank wird sie unten halten. Mittelfristig könnten die Zinsen ein ernstes Problem werden. Wenn sie steigen, schmerzt die massive Verschuldung noch stärker.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Hat die Familie Bush eine besondere Neigung zum Schuldenmach…

Ex-Präsident Bush: "Mut bewiesen, Wahl verloren"

Akerlof: Mag sein, aber Bushs Vater hat Mut bewiesen, indem er die Steuern tatsächlich erhöht hat. Das war der erste Schritt, um das Defizit unter Clinton unter Kontrolle zu bringen. Außerdem war es ein wichtiger Grund dafür, dass Bush senior die Wahl verloren hat.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Man hat den Eindruck, dass die jetzige Regierung Sie in ungeahntem Maß politisiert hat. Allein in diesem Jahr haben Sie, zusammen mit anderen Nobelpreisträgern, zwei öffentliche Protestnoten unterzeichnet - eine gegen die Steuersenkungen, die andere gegen einen unilateralen Präventivkrieg im Irak.

Akerlof: Ich denke, dass diese Regierung die schlimmste in der mehr a…

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Wie soll der aussehen?

Akerlof: Ich weiß es noch nicht. Aber ich finde, wir sollten jetzt protestieren - so viel wie möglich.

Notenbanker Greenspan: "Schmerzen, wenn die Zinsen steigen"

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Würden Sie in Erwägung ziehen, wie ihr Kollege Joseph Stiglitz unter einer Demokratischen Regierung in die Politik zu gehen?

Akerlof: Meine Frau hat ja in der vergangenen Regierung mitgearbeitet und das sehr gut gemacht. Sie ist für öffentliche Aufgaben wohl besser geeignet. Aber ich würde jedes Amt ausfüllen, das mir angetragen wird.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Sie haben gerade den Begriff "ziviler Ungehorsam" benutzt. Der wird in den USA oft mit dem Schriftsteller Henry David Thoreau verbunden, der propagierte, aus Protest keine Steuern zu zahlen. So weit würden Sie nicht gehen, oder?

Akerlof: Nein. Egal was passiert, unsere Steuern sollten wir zahlen. Sonst wird alles nur schlimmer.

Das Interview führte Matthias Streitz

[ThaiGuru]

Sterling Mining steigt weiter!

Heute neues Tages Hoch mit 2.40 Dollar erreicht.

Plus 6.67%

STERLING MINING (Other OTC:SRLM.PK)
Last Trade
12:06pm · 2.40 Change
+0.10 (+6.67%) Prev Cls
2.25 Open
2.30 Volume
306,300

Day`s Range
2.20 - 2.40

[ThaiGuru]

Diesen Dollar Chart gilt es im Auge zu behalten!

Solange er weiter steigt, dürften die Gold Preise weiter unter Druck bleiben.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.asia-economy.de/php_fe/index.php?sektion=reiter&t…

News

China macht in Gold

Peking 30.07.03 (asia-economy.de) - china.org / CRI -

Die Goldproduktion in China hat in den ersten 6 Monaten gegenüber dem Vorjahr um mehr als 10 Prozent auf über 88 Tonnen zugelegt. Damit wurde das relativ hohe Wachstum der Branche gehalten.

Angaben der chinesischen Goldgesellschaft zufolge blieben in der ersten Jahreshälfte die Preise auf dem Goldmarkt auf einem hohen Niveau. Durch verstärkte Investitionen und Erhöhung der Goldfördermengen erzielten fast alle chinesischen Goldproduzenten gute wirtschaftliche Ergebnisse.

30.07.03 (il)

[ThaiGuru]

Die Federal Reserve Bank FED hat heute $11.25 Billion zusätzliches Repos Fiat Money in den Geldkreislauf gepumpt!

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

Man stelle sich vor, der amerikanische Finanzminister Snoh beklagt sich bitter über zuviele Manipulationen am Devisen Markt. An die Adresse der Japaner und Chinesen gerichtet, fordert er Interventionen auf das Nötigste zu beschränken.

Der Mann hat Nerven, muss man ihm lassen.



http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=afIOuv…

Japan

Snow Says China, Japan Shouldn`t Influence Yuan, Yen (Update2)

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary John Snow said Japan should stop trying to influence the value of the yen, appearing to reverse what currency markets interpreted as a U.S. endorsement of yen sales earlier this month.

Snow also said the Chinese government has given ``good indications`` that it will allow its currency, the yuan, to strengthen by widening the band in which it`s allowed to trade against the dollar.

The dollar has fallen 4.8 percent since the first of the year against a basket of currencies from 37 of its largest trading partners. By selling yen for dollars, about 629 billion yen ($5.3 billion) in June alone, the Japanese have been able to keep the yen little changed against the U.S. currency.

``There has been too much intervention,`` Snow said in a tel…

That appears to contradict Snow`s comments in Frankfurt on July 18, when he said the U.S. is ``not going to be critical`` of Japanese currency intervention because that country ``is going through a tough set of things,`` and ``need a strong export sector.``

David Solin, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Connecticut, said Snow`s latest comments may not represent a policy change, as he had signaled aversion to intervention before. Still, they were a ``more aggressive`` attempt to persuade foreign governments to stop meddling with currencies.

Zembei Mizoguchi, Japan`s vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters earlier today that the yen`s recent trading has been ``natural and not because authorities have been intervening.``

The dollar rose 23 yen to 120.26 at 3:15 p.m. in New York trading.

Japan`s economy, second in size only to the U.S. in size, is on the brink of its fourth recession since 1991. Exporters account for about 11 percent of the economy and a weaker yen makes their goods cheaper in foreign markets. Japan`s central bank, which buys or sells its currency on instructions from the Ministry of Finance, sold 2.39 trillion yen in the first three months of 2003.

U.S. manufacturers have complained that China`s eight-year policy of restricting the movement of the yuan to 0.3 percent above and below 8.2770 to the dollar gives its companies an unfair edge.

China, like Japan, should allow markets to set currency valu…

Last Updated: July 30, 2003 15:18 EDT

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030730/to192_1.html

Press Release Source: Pan American Silver Corp.

Pan American Silver completes successful debenture issue
Wednesday July 30, 9:02 am ET

(all figures in US dollars unless otherwise stated)

Pan American Silver Corp. will host a conference call on Thursday, July 31 at 9:00 am PDT (12:00 pm EDT) to discuss the successful completion of its financing and the Company`s future plans. North American participants may access the call live toll free at 1 877 211-7911. International participants please dial 1 416 405-9310. The call may also be accessed from the investor relations section of the Company`s website at www.panamericansilver.com. To listen to a playback of the call anytime before August 7th, please dial 1 800 408-3053 and enter the pass code 1459940.


VANCOUVER, July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Pan American Silver Corp. ("Pan American") (NASDAQ: PAAS - News; TSE: PAA - News) announced today the closing of its offering of $75 million aggregate principal amount of 5.25% convertible unsecured senior subordinated debentures (the "Debentures"), in connection with the bought deal agreement entered into on July 21, 2003 with a syndicate of underwriters led by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and including Canaccord Capital Corporation and CIBC World Markets Inc. The issue was fully subscribed. In addition, the Company has granted the Underwriters an option exercisable for up to 30 days after closing to purchase up to an additional $11.25 million principal amount of the Debentures on the same terms and conditions. The Company expects the Debentures to begin trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on July 30, 2003 under the trading symbol PAA.DB.

Pan American intends to use the proceeds of the offering to fund development of the Alamo Dorado project in Mexico, future capital, development and exploration programs, working capital requirements and for other general corporate purposes. Currently, the Company is also evaluating the potential to expand and significantly increase production at its 100% owned Huaron mine in Peru.

Pan American expects to increase its annual silver production from 10 million ounces forecast for 2003 to nearly 20 million ounces in 2005 and to decrease consolidated cash production costs to under $3.25/oz.

According to Chairman and CEO Ross Beaty: "This financing marks a turning point for Pan American. We now have the capital we need to bring onstream our key development projects, which will increase our leverage to silver and significantly reduce our cost structure. We are growing into a low-cost, long- life, major silver producer that will give our shareholders the best possible exposure to silver. The favourable terms of the financing are a testament to the market`s positive outlook for Pan American`s future and the future of silver."

CAUTIONARY NOTE

Some of the statements in this news release are forward-looking statements and as such are based on an assumed set of economic conditions and courses of action. These include estimates of future production levels, expectations regarding mine production costs, expected trends in mineral prices and statements that describe Pan American`s future plans, objectives or goals. There is a significant risk that actual results will vary, perhaps materially, from results projected depending on such factors as changes in general economic conditions and financial markets, changes in prices for silver and other metals, technological and operational hazards in Pan American`s mining and mine development activities, uncertainties inherent in the calculation of mineral reserves, mineral resources and metal recoveries, the timing and availability of financing, governmental and other approvals, political unrest or instability in countries where Pan American is active, labour relations and other risk factors listed from time to time in Pan American`s Form 40-F.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Pan American Silver Corp.

[Lcherlich]

@TaiGuru

Phantastische Arbeit heute mal wieder!!
Ist ja besser und informativer als jeder Börsenbrief!

Alle Achtung und danke!

[ThaiGuru]

THE YUAN, THE EURO, TAXES, AND GOLD

Question: what do the euro, the yuan, taxes, and gold have in common?

Answer: they all determine the future economic viability of the United States.

There are people in the market today who suggest that investors buy some hush-hush secret yuan-denominated assets to cash in on when the yuan is allowed to float, which will make it rise against he dollar - or so they predict. They say the yuan is "the strongest currency in the world today."

That may be so - or maybe not - but one thing is for sure: C…

Why?

It is true that China’s currency is currently artificially and severely undervalued because of its low peg to the dollar (at probably 40% or more below its natural value), and that if the yuan were allowed to float, it would rapidly climb versus the dollar, and a bunch of money could be made in the process.

But remember that the Chinese economy is totally and utterly export-dependent. China’s internal market is virtually nonexistent. The Chinese, as a general population (with the rich "communo-entrepreneurs" in the free economic zones excepted) are still poor. Many of the products produced in China are produced by Chinese laborers for foreign companies (especially US companies) and have no market in China.

If the dollar were to lose 40% or more of its value against …

The American companies that remain profitable by lowering their labor costs through the utilization of Chinese labor would have to fold up their chinese operations and lose their investments over there. The Chinese boomtowns along the coast would go into rot and decay. The Chinese military no longer would have the wherewithal to pay for Russian submarines for its planned take-over of Taiwan.

The Europeans, on the other hand, do have an internal market - and a huge one at that. Sure, they are hurting just like the next guy when their exports get too expensive as the euro rises, but they can survive what for them will be a temporary downturn, however severe. The Chinese cannot.

The communist Chinese’s goal is to annihilate the US. Of course, they would much rather do it through economic warfare than through military conquest.

How can they eliminate the US? By helping contribute to the downfall of the US dollar without killing their exports (some pain is acceptable, but not economic ‘death’). How can they do that?

For the Chinese economy to survive in case of a loss of the American market, whatever export market China loses when Americans stop buying Chinese goods must be replaced somehow. The American market must be replaced with the European market. That means, the yuan will have to fall against the euro so China can unload its artificially cheap products on the Europeans instead.

How can they achieve this?

They can sell the 316 billion reserve dollars they racked up by running their trade surplus with the US - for euros.

When the Chinese sell dollars and buy euros, the euro will rise against the dollar. Because the Yuan is for the time being still pegged to the dollar, this will increase Chinese export competitiveness compared to Europe, which will allow them to shift their exports to the ‘market of the future.’ US bought and paid-for productive assets in China can then be nationalized (it’s an emergency, you know) and thus acquired for nothing, and can then be used to produce goods to sell to the Europeans.

The Chinese can then repeat that neat little trick they did …

Isn’t that just too cool?

Meanwhile the US economy will begin to collapse of its own dead weight. The tapped out US consumer (the only thing that still holds up any semblance of economic health in the US) will quit spending as the re-fi boom stalls. As the economy worsens, people will lose jobs and the ability to pay their loans back, causing massive loan defaults and monetary base contraction.

These deflationary pressures will offset to some extent the inflationary effect of the inevitable deluge of .US dollars returning home as China and other countries continue selling dollars for euros - but not by enough. All of this will decreease Americans’ ability to spend and consume and buy imports.

The other Asian "tigers" will follow the Chinese example and shift their export focus to Europe as their American market falters.

So far, so good (or bad, rather). But will Europe be able to consume enough to make up for China’s potential loss of the American market?

Well, that’s not really the question. Why? Because it doesn’t really matter whether they will consume "enough" or not. And why is that? Because, as the housing re-fi boom wanes and reverses, and Americans can no longer generate that additional spending cash, the "American consumer" will not be able to consume enough when "he" loses his jobs and income as the economy spirals lower without his spending-support. That means the US, the Asians’ main current export market, will shrink and disappear - anyway.

That is the crux of the matter. "No money, no spendy." The only way to avoid that is to guarantee that the bond market will continue to grow forever - or at least for the next few years. Only then can the re-fi boom be continued. As Greenspan during his recent epiphany revealed, the Fed stands ready to buy US long-term treasuries to pump more money into the failing system, should deflation appear.

What does that mean? It means the US government will borrow more money from the Fed, for starters, raising its indebtedness (the federal deficit). Second, as other nations see the euro and yuan ‘writing on the wall’, they may decide to sell into this lucrative, Fed-induced rally in bond prices, forcing the Fed to print even more money to "buy" the debt paper in order to prevent yields and therefore long term rates (mortages) from rising - all to prolong the re-fi boom.

If these two factors ever coincide, the result will be hyper-inflation in the US. What will Greenspan do then? Sell the same treasuries he just got done buying with such fervor? Who will buy them? How will he reduce the money supply? How will he fight inflation? By raising rates and choking off any business investment whatsoever? By raising taxes in a weakened economy?

Europe, on the other hand, however badly its major economies may presently be hurting, will be able to consume far more than the US when the US enters its final downward spiral, and that’s because the euro’s continued buying power is virtually guaranteed, while the dollar’s is highly in question.

Had enough of all this doom and gloom for America? Don’t believe America will simply lie down and die an economic death?

Well, there is one chance. And that chance is - again- dependent on the American "consumer" in more ways than one.

Remember tax reform? Remember George W.’s tax cuts? Well, they were a drop in the bucket, I know, but the principle is of course correct: leave people and businesses with more cash to spend, and they will spend it. Or save it. Or invest it in infrastructure. And the economy will grow.

But now picture this:

There is currently - and has been for several years - a kind of ‘information virus" spreading like wildfire through the internet as you read this. The American socialist/statist/elitist’s biggest and dirtiest little secret - is no longer a secret. The proverbial ‘cat’ is out of the bag, and it is proliferating as if it had bunny-blood in its veins.

What is that dirtiest of all dirty secrets of the US goverment technocrats?

The US income tax.

No, no, it’s not unconstitutional. It’s also not ‘voluntary,’ either, nor is it invalid because the 16th amendment wasn’t properly ratified, or whatever. But the uncomfortable and hard to believe - but relatively easy to prove - truth is that by law, i.e., by its own terms, the income tax is not imposed on the income of most ordinary Americans.

The truth is that the "income tax" is a perfectly legal, proper, and constitutional excise tax on income generated in international commercial activities. The truth is also that it was written and passed as such, and that it was from its inception not written to apply to the purely domestic income of most Americans.

Finally, the truth is that it was passed off to, and illegally enforced upon, Americans by outright deception - deception that can be traced and documented through ninety years of statutory and regulatory history. The truth is that Americans are not taxed on all of their US income, "no matter where it comes from" as most everyone believes today.

This truth is evidenced in the tax code and IRS regulations themselves - regulations that are as binding on the IRS (and even on all courts below the US supreme court) as they are on you. It was successfully buried for decades under increasing piles of legalese and regulatory gobbledigook, but now has been unearthed, and knowledge of this little truth is spreading - and spreading - and spreading.

The good news is that this truth is not spreading among the usual suspects of the effectively marginalized and de-fanged so-called "patriot" movement. Instead, the truth is spreading among regular folks like you and me, and your neighbors, business owners, a few celebrities, and even among some accountants, "and doctors and lawyers, and such."

The evidence that proves this to be true is far beyond the scope of this article, but it is laid out in meticulous, painstaking, logically undeniable detail at a neat little web site called Taxable Income.

Now, just imagine you didn’t have to pay taxes on your domestic US income any longer. I mean zero. None! And imagine no other American whose income is not derived from international trade or certain other foreign-related activities would have to, either. (Indulge me for a moment, here.)

Would that improve your personal balance sheet rather drastically? Sure would, would it not? Would it improve any US domestic business’ balance sheet dramatically? You betcha. Would it cause people to save more, invest more, spend more, all at the same time? Probably. Would it eliminate the tremendous drag the entire record-keeping, income tax preparation, and filing requirement has on economic activity? It would. Would it keep the government’s hot breath out of Americans’ hair when the politicians suddenly have about a trillion or so less dollars to waste and buy votes with every year? You got it.

The point is, the fate of the American economy may ultimately come to depend on the rate of speed at which the news of the discovery of this dirtiest of little government secrets is spread, and its veracity is thoroughly studied, tested, and understood by all. (eventually, that is. Come on, give people some credit, will you?)

The point is also that, without the power the US government …

Without the government’s ability to "manage" the price of go…

And that means that gold can be freed to soar, supporting th…

Utopian? Farfetched? Maybe. But truth has a way of eventually working its way through all the deceit, all the lies, all of the market-rigging, all of the legalese-writing, fact-distorting, mind-numbing, news-spinning, currency-inflating, and gold price-rigging that our rich and powerful are so overly happy to engage in.

Naturally, widespread discovery of this little truth will not be the magic pill that cures the US economic ill. Hard times are ahead, in any case. Might just as well have something positive to look forward to at the end of that long, dark tunnel. (And, by the way, that ‘positive’ is much easier to find if you have some gold with your name on it stashed away somewhere.)

But first, let’s watch this current artificial stock-bubblin…

Copyright by Alex Wallenwein

Alex Wallenwein
Editor, Publisher
The EURO VS DOLLAR CURRENCY WAR MONITOR

http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.h…

- What do you do when all your investments are doing great, when you have a high-paying job or successful business, but the dollars you earn are dropping and dropping in value?
- The euro continues to beat the tar out of the dollar (and your pocketbook) and there is no end in sight. How will this affect your money, your job/business, your retirement, and your kids` education?
- Can you protect yourself from the fallout? Absolutely!

Find out how. Free Report: [e-mail]

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Magor]

Tja Thai,
wie Deine vermehrt USD-lastigen Berichte auch zeigen,
scheint sich die (kurzfristige) Richtung der Metallpreise um die Kursentwicklung des USD zu drehen,
es wird sich jetzt gerade für die Richtung entschieden ...

Die FED versucht verzweifelt die Quadratur des Kreises hinzubiegen.
Läßt sie den USD durchhängen, was für die Konjunkturerholung dringend vonnöten wäre, kauft keiner US-Schuldverschreibungen.
Um die Schuldverschreibungen widerum absetzen zu können, und auf pump weiterleben zu können muß da Lockzins drauf, was gerade die letzten Wochen auch geschieht.

Geht´s jetzt um die Wurscht?
Lieber ein bewußter Verzicht auf die Konjunkturerholung
und
mit wehenden Fahnen in die Inflation,
als ein Staatsbankrott á la Süd-Korea?
Viele Wahlmöglichkeit haben die doch garnicht.

Grüße
Magor

[Wavetrader]

Update Gold/Silber in Euro!

Sehen wir jetzt, wie die in #6556 und #6408 angesprochene Parallele vom Gold zum Silber fortgeführt wird? Nach Konsolidierung unter GD200 auf zu neuen Höhen?

[Sig]

Technisch sieht es jedenfalls nicht toll aus.
Die Hochpunkte zeigen einen klaren Abtrend.
Vorsicht ist da auf jeden Fall angeraten!

SIG

[ThaiGuru]

July 30 - Gold $356.50 down $4.90 - Silver $5.06 down 10 cents

Gold At A Crossroads

"Those who failed to oppose me, who readily agreed with me, … -Napoleon Bonaparte, emperor of France
1769-1821)

Disappointment, but no surprise. Each time The Gold Cartel stops gold in its tracks, as it attempts to break through $370, it becomes more apparent various bullion banks are coordinating their selling activity to cap the price of gold. Only the brain-dead could fail to pick up that by now.

Par for the course, the cabal has done the "dirty deed" and has succeeded. Once gold took out $360, the tech spec funds began to pitch their longs. After yesterday’s thrust lower, the hit men wasted little time by taking gold down sharply as soon as trading commenced in the Aussie/Asia trading periods. The situation deteriorated into the Comex session. As expected, funds were major sellers as gold fell to $354.60 before popping back.

It appears gold will attempt to fill a breakaway gap left ar…

Fighting City Hall is never easy. Gold investors are doing just that: fighting a deceitful and corrupt City Hall. An excited Café member called this morning alerting me to the utterances of Dallas Fed Governor Robert McTeer on CNBC. I am told he said something to the effect gold is a barometer of how things are going… $300 is to low a price…$400 is too high… $350 is about right.

Sarge is looking for the transcript now. Should have it for you tomorrow. The reason it is so important is GATA has stated for almost half a decade just that: meaning The Gold Cartel, via the Fed and ESF, has manipulated the gold price because it is a barometer the public uses to judge the well-being of the economy and the financial market effectiveness of the administration in power. A sharply rising gold price suggests to the average Joe and Jane something is amiss in financial land. Therefore, the Clinton and Bush Administrations have clandestinely managed the price to suit their own agendas.

That is why I continue to exclaim the price of gold will nev…

They must be carried out! A continuing surge in the physical…

Yesterday, cabal forces were continued sellers while the specs added to their long positions even further. Comex open interest rose another 7427 contracts to 238,119, only about 7,000 contracts off its enormous high early this year. Gold is vulnerable to a massive sell-off if 50,000 to 60,000 specs are to be liquidated.

Will that happen? Yes, unless we are on our way into a new era, which is only a return to the era of old. Veteran Café members will remember it was normal for gold to move $30 at a pop in a given week. Twenty-five cent days for silver were the norm too. There is a very good possibility the incredible bond sell-off is telling us we are at a turning point and new market dynamics are coming into play. The recent bond debacle may be the tipping-point for gold. What I mean by that is, more and more investors realize the jig is up for The Fed. The Fed is pumping and pumping and it is going to lead to much higher inflation in the US. As McTeer said today, the Fed is going all out RIGHT NOW! This is very gold friendly news and many big money players may be reacting to the obvious.

The changing of the norm, or recent past understandings, is often called a "Paradigm Shift." The bond collapse may have an entire new arena of big player investors thinking of how to protect their wealth. Money market funds with a .6% annualized return are not a satisfactory alternative. Neither is an extremely vulnerable stock market for many. Gold makes the most sense in this new environment. There is a strong possibility we are in the midst of a "Paradigm Shift" in which more and more investors are turning to gold all over the world. Let us hope this is the case and a major factor behind the sharply rising gold open interest on Comex. If so, gold may not liquidate anywhere near what recent history dictates. The surprise could be gold turns around next week and makes new highs in a blink for this move. Meanwhile, gold open interest could explode into all-time high ground as gold runs for $400. We shall see.

Regardless of how the next few weeks turn out, gold REMAINS the historic investment of a lifetime. At some point in the near future gold will take off and never look back. That is why I stay fully positioned in my gold shares and gold physical holdings. Setbacks are opportunities to build on those positions.

Gold closed $2 off its lows, with silver closing 5 cents off…

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Unfortunately, Reuters failed to provide Indian Bullion prices today because of a 1-day general strike in Bombay. This is a pity, as the premiums today would have given a good sense of how far the counter-attack on world gold can go. The rest of the country was not effected. Dow Jones datelined London this morning remarks that
"Traders noted good physical buying on weakness around $358.." which is likely to prove general.

TOCOM traded down quietly this morning, volume falling 37% to the equivalent of only 40,047 Comex lots. The active contract slipped 8 yen and world gold went out $1.10 below the NY close. As usual, the newswires claim this was caused by Japanese selling, and there are credible reports of selling by the public towards the close, but open interest rose the equivalent of 1,542 Comex contracts, so they seem unlikely to have been sellers, net. A more plausible account is offered by Mitsubishi which observers:

"Loco Ldn gold was under pressure by Aussi selling and Jun gold was dragged down to 1384 at mid morning…In last 30 mins, Jun gold moved down to the 1386 along with weak Loco Ldn which was sold by Aussi dealers. Saw Public long liquidation"

In other words, even in the Far East, the dominant force was…

Japan may be about to become more decisive in gold, however, because the yen is quietly starting to slide. It fell half a yen during the Japanese day, and has subsequently softened 70 bps more, breaking a 1 year trendline. Anticipation of a weak yen has always been the most effective stimulant to Japanese purchase of gold futures: with open interest in TOCOM only equal to 135,000 Comex lots there is plenty of room: there is recent precedent for it exceeding the NY level both relatively and outright, which would mean adding 10 Mm ozs of open interest at present. (NY volume yesterday was 86,114 contracts; open interest rose another 7,247 lots.)

Interestingly – perhaps significantly - the Nikkei News Service today carries the first story of Japanese gold accumulation for many months:

"TOKYO (Nikkei)--Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo KK has seen growing sales recently of its wooden chests that contain Austrian gold coins.

Sales of Austrian gold coins contained in the chests, which look like the "senryobako" case used in Japan`s Edo period, reached 32,800 in the January-June period, the highest level since the first half of 2002, the company said Tuesday. And sales of Austrian gold coins in the chests totaled more than 100,000 since Tanaka Kikinzoku introduced the chests one and a half years ago… "Many people buy the chests to diversify their assets from bank deposits and stocks, and to hold them for the long term," said an official at Tanaka Kikinzoku.
(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Wednesday morning edition- JB italics)

By the NY close yesterday, everyone with any experience in the bullion market must have got the message: another rally in gold has been blocked by free selling by dealers, despite apparently congenial news (in yesterday’s case, the poor Confidence numbers). As UBS observes:

"Gold had a rather slow day yesterday…consistent selling by …

With open interest up so much so fast, this inevitably means a liquidation phase, exacerbated by predator fund activity. The only question is how soon physical buying stops the party. One inclines to the UBS view:

"Month end window dressing and fresh buying should proof goo…

In all this furor, it should not be forgotten that events in the bond market are quite extraordinary, and are certain to mean unusual stress and riskiness in the Financial system.

Bloomberg’s alert Asian columnist William Pesek makes the interesting suggestion that an unwinding yen carry trade will cause serious trouble:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=colu…

Bridgewater contributes an arresting image:

"The large supply of Treasury bonds, the dynamic hedging of …
(JB italics)

Perhaps the weightiest assessment comes from Bianco Research:

"Comment - The sell-off in the bond market is reaching epic …

Gnarled veterans of the gold market will not need to be reminded that gold last saw $500 in the Fall of 1987.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[hpoth]

@sig
Wir sind eben in einer Korrektur, nach meinem Point& Figure
Chart Umkehr $ 1 haben wir Luft bis 348, dort ist wieder eine Unterstützung, die sollte halten.Ebeso befinden wir uns dann immer noch im Dreieck zwischen 340- 370. Rücksetzter sind nach wie vor gut für den Markt ein zu steiler Anstieg produziert eben auch einen stäreren Fall.Schmermal gru hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

From The King Report:

If the unexpected plunge in consumer confidence is disconcerting to bulls, what is the stunning 1.2% decline in Japanese June industrial output? A .04% gain was expected, but the recent surge in the Nikkei implies a commensurate surge in the economy is expected by the hedgies and US institutions that have been incontinent buyers of Japanese stocks. Last week Sony had unexpectedly poor earnings. The late June/early July global stock rally had more to do with asset allocators fleeing bonds and covering their short futures than economics.

Foreign investors are fleeing US bonds. Besides the well-pub…

We keep expressing our astonishment at those statements and The Street’s reaction to them. Rational investors will move their capital out of the jurisdiction of desperate confiscators, yet Wall Street shills and media stooges spin one of the most negative possibilities as being wonderful for stocks and the economy. In the not-too-distant future, investors will look back on these days and realize just how ridiculous and absurd thinking became.

And that’s the historic lesson of bubbles and crashes – a vast majority of normally rational and intelligent people suspend logic and reason and devour seductive but sophistic cant.

-END-

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOG (1721, down 9) and DOW (9200, down 4) refuse to break. Tomorrow’s jobless number is an important one. If the claims go above 400,000 again, the stock market ought to be really spooked after the horrendous consumer confidence number.

The dollar’s rally is baffling. It closed at 96.30, up .80. …

Way oversold bonds finally managed to put in a rally, albeit a modest one, closing at 107.27, up 25/32 from last night’s futures close.

Whatever happened to cheap oil, expected by so many following the Iraq war? It`s back up to $30.76 per barrel.

A casualty of the massive bond break:

Refinancing Wave Breaks as Rates Rise

Wednesday July 30, 11:47 am ET

By Aleksandrs Rozens

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Demand for mortgage refinancings -- a lifeline for the anemic U.S. economy -- sank last week to lows not seen since last December, an industry survey reported on Wednesday.

Fewer consumers applied for loans to buy homes, and the jump in borrowing costs fanned concern among economists that a rapid rise in borrowing costs over the past six weeks may hobble the economic recovery.

"Where`s the fork? Refis are done," Drew Matus, economist at Lehman Brothers, quipped in a report.

Rates for 30-year loans, the most commonly used home mortgage, rose to 5.87 percent in the latest week from 5.72 percent in the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

Demand for refinancings as measured by the trade group`s refinance index plummeted 32.9 percent to 4,145.8 in the week ended July 25. The percentage decline was the largest since January 2002, but in points it was the largest drop ever.

GATA’s Mike Bolser last night:

Hi Bill:

Here is a view of today`s DIVG chart for your review.



It reveals that the DIVG hovers above the ceiling of 323.71 originally encountered on Dec 5th when the Euro and Dollar were last at parity.

As you can see the last time we pierced the 323 level it held for four days.

Today [July 29th] is day three. It is an important test.

The big run-up after SECTREAS O`Neil departed can`t be counted here since there were no ESF tools in place until he was replaced with John Snow.

We know that silver is much more powerful this time around and seems to shake off cartel attempts to drop it along with gold. Has something snapped?

The continuing bond swoon is the major event, however, and perhaps is causing unseen collateral damage in other derivatives markets.

I have a copy of a JP Morgan "Gold Interest Rate Swap" deriv…

Best,

Mike

Chuck checks in and touches on my ramble:

Bill:

I think that there is another explanation to the open interest figures that mesh with the COTS. All during the time that gold has failed to really move upward in a bull phase, these figures have been reliable in predicting the moves. When they moved unreasonably high, the market was ready for a correction or a tumble. But if we are in a genuine and historic move in gold and silver, then these figures will only serve as fuel for the fire of the explosive move up.

Since I believe that we are at a magic point where all marke…

I still think that the possibility of a financial panic and chaos are very high, if not in the initial break in the market, then in the aftermath. Just look how quickly the bond market shifted. Since gold and interest rates serve as a barometer of the paper system, there should be something dramatic ready to come out of the precious metals complex.

By the way, I forgot to tell you that yesterday the amount of puts in the gold futures totaled 24,000 compared to 14,000 calls. Now that must mean something since it is, by far, the largest amount of puts I have ever noticed, perhaps even recorded. It is another extreme point in the picture.

Chuck

Sarge notes:

The big buys banks made in mortgages are coming back to haunt them.

According to the Federal Reserve`s most recent report on bank assets and liabilities, large U.S.-based banks holdings in the tradable baskets of mortgages known as mortgage-backed securities fell by $42.6 billion to $360 billion in the week ended July 16. That 11.6 percent drop was the biggest one-week decline on record.

http://money.cnn.com/2003/07/29/commentary/bidask/bidask/ind…

An unanswered question:

Hi Bill.........

Have you noticed that according to KITCO, London Gold trading hours have been lengthened and stretch 9 hours to noon NY time. This leaves only 1 ½ of the still shortened New York trading hours where the NY market is the only market active. This meshes with the closing and movement of the Gold trading of certain Bullion Banks to London last year.

On the face of it, this game plan must have been in play before 9/11, but that tragedy gave an excuse to reduce the NY trade hours. There has never been an "official" explanation of this continuation of the foreshortened hours! Certainly, there is no valid reason based on "Homeland Security" Seems to me that you had conjectured some time ago that the move to London might have been necessitated by the Gold Cartel to operate outside of the US due to the Sherman Clayton Anti-Trust Law. Desperate efforts, no doubt, of the Fiat $$ fraud perpetrators to preserve their power over us all.
Please comment on this in Midas.....

Thanks for the Continued efforts , which are tipping the APPLE CART....finally.......ken

Ken is referring to banks such as JP Morgan Chase, which shifted their operations to London. I can’t get an answer as to why only gold did not go back to normal trading hours after 9/11, as every other market did. It is just one more example of the financial market powers in the US doing all they can to give gold as low a profile as possible.

The HUI (162.10, down 1.74) and the XAU (80.64, down .80) held up relatively well considering the gold sell-off and taking into account how much they have run up. Barrick was the weak sister again, falling 48 cents to $17.07. If it closes another 40 cents lower, it will have completed a massive technical top from a charting perspective.

The next few days will be pivotal for gold. It is either going to surprise The Gold Cartel and turn right around or it will succumb to massive spec liquidation. Either way, I am ready for it to blow through $400 as summer ends and we head into fall.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030731/0921001156_1.html

Dow Jones Business News

Hecla Mining 2nd-Quarter Net 2 Cents/Share

Thursday July 31, 9:21 am ET


Hecla Mining Co. (NYSE:HL - News) - Coeur D`Alene, Idaho
2nd Quar June 30:
2003 2002
Sales $30,203,000 $28,663,000
Inc cnt op 2,540,000 5,058,000
Inc dis op .... (303,000)
Net income 2,540,000 4,755,000
Avg shares (diluted) 110,052,000 75,010,000
Shr earns
Inc cnt op .02 .04
Inc dis op .... ....
Net income .02 .04
6 months:
Sales 56,643,000 52,045,000
Inc cnt op 8,201,000 6,027,000
Inc dis op .... (786,000)
Inc bef adj 8,201,000 5,241,000
Acctg adj 1,072,000 ....
Net income 9,273,000 5,241,000
Avg shares (diluted) 110,173,000 74,426,000
Shr earns
Inc cnt op .06 .03
Inc dis op .... (.01)
Inc bef adj .06 .02
Acctg adj .01 ....
Net income .07 .02

Figures in parentheses are losses.

Hecla Mining Co. mines and processes silver and gold.

Company Web Site: http://www.hecla-mining.com

-Wendy Tsau, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2100

[ThaiGuru]

--- 6666 --- Wenn das keine Glückszahl ist?

[Sozzi]

666= SATANISMUS

...6666 Teufel sollen es ja sein, die Satan dienen...

Quelle: biblische Geschichte

[hpoth]

Ich sehe das anders ist doch eine schöne Schnapszahl,obwohl ich keinen Schnaps trinke.Mit Satan hat`s wohl nichts am Hut.Gruß hpoth

[Leon der Profi]

Das ist ja wohl wieder krass heute: Euro fällt ins Bodenlose, Gold stabil, Gold in Euro geht ab, nebenbei ist Silber sehr stark heute

[Stosstrupp_Gold]

Offenbarung 13,18: "Hier ist die Weisheit. Wer Verständnis hat, berechne die Zahl des Tieres! Denn es ist eines Menschen Zahl; und seine Zahl ist 666."

Übrigens war meine alte Telefondurchwahl in der Firma 666...ich vermisse diese Zahl sehr, dshalb hat mein KfZ-Kennzeichen jetzt die Nummer 666 (kein Witz)

[Sozzi]

Die 11 satanischen Gebote


1. Gib keine Stellungnahmen oder Ratschläge, wenn du nicht gefragt wirst.


2. Erzähle deine Sorgen nicht anderen, wenn du nicht sicher bist, daß sie sie hören wollen.


3. In jemandes anderen Heim erweise ihm Respekt, ansonsten betritt es nicht.


4. Wenn dich ein Gast in deinem Heim belästigt, behandele ihn grausam und ohne Gnade.


5. Unternimm keinen sexuellen Vorstoß, solange du nicht entsprechende Signale bekommen hast.


6. Nimm nichts an dich, was dir nicht gehört, außer es ist eine Bürde für den anderen und er schreit danach, entlastet zu werden.

7. Erkenne die Macht der Magie an, wenn du sie erfolgreich eingesetzt hast, um deinen Wünschen zum Erfolg zu verhelfen. Wenn du die Macht der Magie verleugnest, nachdem du sie mit Erfolg beschworen hast, wirst du alles verlieren, was du erreicht hast.


8. Beschwere dich nicht über etwas, dem du dich nicht selbst aussetzen mußt.


9. Füge Kindern keinen Schaden zu.


10. Töte keine nichtmenschlichen Tiere, außer du wirst angegriffen oder zu Nahrungszwecken.


11. Wenn du auf offenem Grund unterwegs bist, belästige niemanden. Wenn dich jemand belästigt, bitte ihn, damit aufzuhören. Wenn er nicht aufhört, vernichte ihn.


www.satanismus.org



@sovereign,
du erfüllst alle Voraussetzungen für den perfekten Satanismus-Lebensstil...

[Sozzi]

Die 9 satanischen Sünden


1. Dummheit - Der oberste Eintrag auf der Liste der satanischen Sünden. Die Hauptsünde des Satanismus. Es ist zu schade, dass Dummheit keine Schmerzen verursacht. Unwissenheit ist eine Sache, aber unsere Gesellschaft gedeiht in wachsendem Ausmaß durch Dummheit. Sie hängt davon ab, dass die Leute weitermachen mit dem, was ihnen auch immer erzählt wird. Die Medien fördern kultivierte Dummheit als eine Haltung, die nicht nur akzeptabel, sondern lobenswert ist. Satanisten müssen lernen, hinter die Tricks zu sehen, sie können es sich nicht leisten, dumm zu sein.

2. Anmaßung - Inhaltslose Beiträge können ausgesprochen irritierend sein und sind keine Anwendung der Hauptregeln der niedereren Magie. Auf der gleichen Ebene mit Dummheit, wenn es darum geht, was heute das Geld in Umlauf hält. Jeder wird dazu gebracht, sich wie ein großes Tier zu fühlen, ob nun was daran ist oder nicht.

3. Solipsismus - Kann für Satanisten sehr gefährlich sein. Man projiziert seine Reaktionen, seine Antworten und sein Einfindungsvermögen auf jemanden, der wahrscheinlich weit weniger eingestimmt ist als man selbst. Es ist ein Fehler, dass man von den Leuten erwartet, dass sie einem dieselbe Rücksichtnahme, Höflichkeit und Respekt entgegenbringen, die man ihnen gegenüber selbstverständlich aufbringt. Sie werden es nicht machen. Statt dessen müssen Satanisten danach trachten, den Satz "Wie du mir, so ich dir" zur Anwendung zu bringen. Für die meisten von uns ist es mit Arbeit verbunden und erfordert dauernde Wachsamkeit, damit man nicht in die angenehme Illusion verfällt, dass jeder genau so ist wie man selbst. Wie gesagt, bestimmte Utopien wären ideal in einer Gesellschaft von Philosophen, aber unglücklicherweise (oder glücklicherweise, von einem Machiavellistchen Standpunkt aus gesehen) sind wir davon weit entfernt.

4. Selbsttäuschung - Kommt in den neun satanischen Gebote vor, verdient es aber, hier wiederholt zu werden. Noch eine Hauptsünde. Wir dürfen nicht den heiligen Kühen huldigen, die uns präsentiert werden, einschließlich der Rollen, von denen erwartet wird, das wir selbst sie spielen. Selbsttäuschung sollte nur betrieben werden, wenn es Spaß macht, und im vollen Bewusstsein der Tatsache. Aber dann ist es nicht Selbsttäuschung!

5. Zugehörigkeit zur Herde - Offensichtlich, vom satanischen Standpunkt. Es ist durchaus in Ordnung, den Wünschen einer Person nachzukommen, wenn man davon schließlich profitiert. Aber nur Narren folgen der Herde und lassen sich von einem unpersönlichen Wesen diktieren. Der Schlüssel ist, sich seinen Herren weise auszusuchen, statt von den Launen vieler versklavt zu werden.

6. Mangel an Perspektiven - Auch dieser Punkt kann zu einer Menge Schmerzen für einen Satanisten führen. Du darfst niemals aus dem Blick verlieren, wer und was du bist, und was für eine Bedrohung du durch deine bloße Existenz sein kannst. Wir machen Geschichte, hier und jetzt, jeden Tag. Behalte immer ein umfassendes historisches und soziales Bild im Bewusstsein. Das ist ein wichtiger Schlüssel sowohl für niederere als auch für höhere Magie. Erkenne die Muster und reihe die Ereignisse aneinander, so wie du möchtest, dass die Teile auf ihren Platz fallen. Beuge dich nicht dem Druck der Herde - wisse, dass du auf einer völlig anderen Ebene arbeitest als der Rest der Welt.

7. Vergesslichkeit gegenüber früheren Grundsätzen - Sei dir bewusst, dass das einer der Schlüssel dafür ist, die Leute mittels Gehirnwäsche dazu zu bringen, etwas "Neues" und "Anderes" zu akzeptieren, das in Wirklichkeit einstmals allgemein bekannt war, jetzt aber in neuer Verpackung präsentiert wird. Es wird von uns erwartet, dass wir von der Begabung des "Erfinders" schwärmen und darüber das ursprüngliche Original vergessen. Dies führt zu einer beliebig Entsorgbahren Gesellschaft.

8. Kontraproduktiver Stolz - Dieses erste Wort ist wesentlich. Stolz ist großartig, solange du nicht beginnst, das Kind mit dem Bade auszuschütten. Die satanische Regel ist: wenn es dir nutzt, großartig. Wenn es aufhört, dir nützlich zu sein, wenn du dich in eine Ecke manövriert hast und der einzige Ausweg von dort ist, zu sagen, "Es tut mir leid, ich habe einen Fehler gemacht, lass uns einen gemeinsamen Ausweg finden", dann mach es.

9. Mangel an Ästhetik - Das ist die physische Anwendung des Ausgleichsfaktors. Ästhetik ist wichtig für niederere Magie und sollte kultiviert werden. Es ist offensichtlich, dass kaum jemand die klassischen Standards von Schönheit und Form zu Geld machen kann, darum sind sie in der Konsumgesellschaft nicht gefördert, aber ein "Blick" für Schönheit, für Ausgewogenheit, ist ein wesentliches satanisches Hilfsmittel und muss zum Erreichen der optimalen magischen Effektivität angewandt werden. Es ist nicht das, was als erfreulich erwartet wird - es ist, was es ist. Ästhetik ist eine persönliche Angelegenheit, ein Spiegel des eigenen Naturells, aber es gibt allgemein angenehme und harmonische Aspekte, die nicht verleugnet werden sollten.


@sovereign, spätestens jetzt sollte dir dein Weg (und anderer) gezeichnet sein...

[Stosstrupp_Gold]

@Sozzi

Satanismus ist der Bastard des Katholizismus wie es so schön heisst. Ohne Gott kann es definitionsgemäß keinen Teufel geben....wenn erstgenannte Wesenheit jedoch existieren sollte, welchen Sinn sollte es denn haben letztgenanntes Gedankenkonstrukt (das ja zum ersteren inferior ist) zu verehren?

Ich sehe mich eigentlich eher als Agnostiker mit existentialistischen Tendenzen....der allerdings brav seine Kirchensteuern bezahlt (und für diesen Verein auch schon ein paar Geschäfte abgeschlossen hat)

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=…



US Lawmakers Ask Bush To Pressure China On Forex Regime

Thursday, July 31, 2003 03:03 PM ET

WASHINGTON [AP]--Frustrated by job losses and a flood of imports from China, a group of Republicans and Democrats asked President George W. Bush on Thursday to pressure China to let its currency values rise and fall in the market.

The group wants China to let the value of its currency float…

The group made its request as Treasury Secretary John Snow told a Senate committee the administration will not have a position on China`s currency practices - and whether those practices give China an unfair trading edge - until completing a report in October.

"I frankly don`t have a firm view on that at this point," Snow said.

The lawmakers said Bush needs to take action soon, before lawmakers try to start protecting U.S. jobs by blocking free trade initiatives.

"Free trade is losing ground in this Congress like a sinking… said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y.

The lawmakers contend that China`s currency practices may be contributing to job losses in the U.S. because U.S. companies, finding it harder to compete against lower-priced goods, are laying off workers. The nation`s unemployment rate climbed to a nine-year high of 6.4% in June, and the manufacturing sector has seen steady job losses.

Appealing to the White House to step in, the lawmakers said economists believe the yuan is pegged to a rate 15% to 40% less than its real value, making China`s goods and services cheaper in the international market.

"This means that when Chinese manufacturers export a product… the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Bush.

Snow said the Chinese government is studying ways to widen its trading band, or expand the amount the currency can fluctuate.

The lawmakers said the U.S. can take action against China if the administration determines it is unfairly manipulating its currency rates. World Trade Organization rules bar countries from manipulating their currency to gain an export advantage. China joined the WTO in December 2001.


Dow Jones Newswires
07-31-03 1503ET

Copyright 2003 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=200100

FRONT PAGE

2003-07-31 21:08:01


ECB leaves interest rate unchanged

By Sapa-DPA

By David McHugh

Frankfurt, Germany - The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, giving itself more time to size up the prospects for a long-awaited economic upswing on the continent.

The bank`s 18-member governing council left the key refinancing rate at two percent, where it has stood since a half-point cut on June 6.

The decision was widely expected after bank officials` recent statements that rates are "appropriate." The ECB, which sets monetary policy for the 12 countries using the euro currency, says its rates are already low enough to stimulate more business activity and spur recovery in the slow-moving economy.

At his last news conference July 10, ECB President Wim Duisenberg went out of his way to douse expectations, saying not only that rates were "appropriate" but adding that the bank`s monetary policy was on the right track and would stay on it "for a considerable time to come." The bank planned no press conference Thursday and did not issue an explanation for its decision.

Economists say the bank will watch economic indicators over the next several months for confirmation that its projection of an economic recovery next year is on course.

If the signs are that an upswing isn`t taking shape, then the bank could cut rates again in September or October.

Those two meetings are likely to be the last ones presided over by Duisenberg, whose successor, Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet, is expected to be in place after November 1
.

The governing council also considered whether to recommend Trichet, but the bank postponed revealing the decision until 3 p.m. (1300GMT).

Trichet was expected to win approval because he is a member of the council. The nomination for Europe`s top economic policymaking job then goes to the European Parliament.

Some think the current series of rate cuts, which has taken the refinancing rate down by 1.75 percentage points since May 2001, could be over. If that`s the case, the bank could begin raising rates next year to ward off inflation, which can be one consequence of an expanding economy.

Stefan Schneider, an economist at Deutsche Bank Research in Frankfurt, said the bank is likely to cut only if inflation falls well below its 2 percent target.`

"I think the need for the ECB to cut further is limited," said Schneider. "It`s only if inflation falls below its target that they wou…

Lower rates can push up inflation, and the bank only reduces rates when it can say prices are under control.

The economy in the euro countries showed just 0.1 percent growth in the first quarter of this year, and output shrank slightly in Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. - Sapa-AP

[ThaiGuru]

Damit mir der Vorwurf zukünftig erspart bleibt, ich hätte nie in der Tendenz positive Meldung zur Wirtschaftslage gepostet, heute ein ganz "positiver" Artikel von der "Nachrichten Agentur Reuters"

Diesen Artikel kann man zur Zeit, mehr oder weniger gleichze…

Bevor aber nun alle Gold Bugs sofort ihr Gold, und ihre Goldaktien Verkaufen, sollten sie etwas zwischen den Zahlen Lesen, und sich nicht allzu sehr von der Ueberschrift dieses Reuters Berichtes verwirren lassen.

Die Verwendeten "Positiven Zahlen" sind "vorläufige", und nu…

In der Vergangenheit wurde dieser Trick mit den nachträglich nach unten korrigierten "vorläufigen" Zahlen ja schon öffters praktiziert.

Das sich dieser "Irakkrieg Wirtschaftsaufschwung" auf nicht anderes als Kredit aufbaut, das schreibt Reuters aber wenigsten selbst.

Dass die US Börsen heute gestiegen sind, der Dollar heute schon zum 3. Tag heiss begehrt sein soll, und weiter anstieg, dass die Gold Preis Notierungen heute weiter nachgaben, und der Silber preis einfach nicht richtig vom Fleck gekommen ist, sind sicher alles nur pure Zufälle. Einige Leser im Thread werden mir vielleicht antworten wollen, es handle sich um ganz normale wirtschaftliche Vorgänge. Das selbe werden und die Analysten der Banken erzählen. Die müssten es ja dann ganz genau wissen, zumindest diejenigen Analysten von Banken die sich jeden Morgen mit der FED über ihre Aktionen unterhalten, und sich sogar gegenseitig in Ihren Plänen Absprechen, und benötigten Falles gleich noch mit zusätzlichem Kleingeld aus der Interventionskasse der FED versorgt werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.reuters.de/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=RCY00RN1…

US-Wirtschaft wächst deutlich stärker als erwartet

31 July 2003 18:54 CEST

Washington (Reuters) - Dank eines kräftigen Anstiegs der Militärausgaben im Zuge des Irak-Kriegs hat die US-Wirtschaft ihr Wachstumstempo im zweiten Quartal überraschend stark beschleunigt.

Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP) von 2,4 Prozent …

Das US-Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) stieg nach vorläufigen Berechnungen des Handelsministeriums zum Vorquartal mit einer auf das Jahr hochgerechneten Rate von 2,4 Prozent nach 1,4 Prozent im ersten Quartal, wie das US-Handelsministerium mitteilte. Analysten hatten im Durchschnitt mit einem Wachstum von lediglich 1,5 Prozent gerechnet.

HOHE MILITÄRAUSGABEN TREIBEN BIP NACH OBEN

Maßgeblicher Faktor für den stärkeren BIP-Anstieg war nach Ministeriumsangaben ein kräftiger Zuwachs bei den Militärausgaben im Zusammenhang mit dem Irak-Krieg.

Die Rüstungsausgaben legten demnach um 44,1 Prozent zu und d…

Auch die bislang schwache Investitionstätigkeit der Unternehmen erholte sich im zweiten Quartal. So stiegen die Investitionsausgaben aufs Jahr hochgerechnet um 6,9 Prozent, nachdem sich hier im ersten Quartal noch ein Rückgang von 4,4 Prozent ergeben hatte.

Als verlässliche Konjunkturstütze erwies sich weiterhin der private Konsum, der rund zwei Drittel der US-Wirtschaftsleistung ausmacht.

Das Wachstum der Verbraucherausgaben beschleunigte sich im vergangenen Quartal auf 3,3 Prozent von zwei Prozent im Vorquartal. Hierbei fiel insbesondere der Kauf von Autos und anderen langlebigen Gütern ins Gewicht.

Analysten zufolge bestätigen die BIP-Daten den Konjunkturoptimismus in den USA, der die Kurse an der Wall Street seit Mitte März kräftig nach oben treibt. Erfreut zeigten sich die Experten insbesondere über die positive Entwicklung bei den Investitionen und den deutlichen Abbau von Lagerbeständen, der üblicherweise eine steigende Produktion und zusätzliche Arbeitsplätze erwarten lässt.

SPÜRBARE KONJUNKTURBELEBUNG ERWARTET

Für das zweite Halbjahr wird in den USA weithin eine spürbare konjunkturelle Belebung erwartet. Diese Einschätzung wird unisono von zahlreichen Volkswirten, der US-Notenbank (Fed) und auch der US-Regierung vertreten. Nach den Worten des Chefs der Fed von Atlanta, Jack Guynn, wird die US-Wirtschaft in den kommenden Monaten an Fahrt gewinnen.

Mit einer raschen Beschleunigung sei aber nicht zu rechnen, erklärte Guynn. US-Finanzminister John Snow wertete die BIP-Daten als Hinweis darauf, dass die wirtschaftliche Erholung auf gutem Wege sei. Die Wachstumsrate müsse allerdings noch weiter steigen, damit man von einem richtigen Aufschwung sprechen könne.

Volkswirten zufolge dürften auch die Steuererleichterungen der US-Regierung zur erwarteten Konjunkturbelebung beitragen. Diese sollte nach einiger Zeit dann auch die Wirtschaft in der Euro-Zone auf Touren bringen. "Wie immer wird Deutschland mit etwa einem halben Jahr Zeitverzögerung auch davon profitieren", sagte Carsten Demski von der Bankgesellschaft Berlin.

Andere Analysten verwiesen auf die Diskrepanz zwischen der Stimmung unter den Konsumenten und deren tatsächlichem Ausgabeverhalten. So belastet die ausbleibende Erholung am Arbeitsmarkt zunehmend das Verbrauchervertrauen. Zahlreiche Experten befürchten, dass die erhoffte Konjunkturbelebung unter anderem wegen der Produktivitätsfortschritte der Unternehmen zunächst nicht zu einer merklichen Entspannung der Beschäftigungssituation führen wird. Dieses Phänomen wird in den USA mit dem Schlagwort "jobless recovery" bezeichnet.

Demgegenüber fielen ebenfalls am Donnerstag vorgelegte neue Arbeitsmarktdaten besser aus als erwartet. So lag die Zahl der Erstanträge auf US-Arbeitslosenhilfe in der vergangenen Woche mit 388.000 unter der durchschnittlichen Analystenprognose von 400.000.

Der Arbeitsmarktbericht für Juli wird am Freitag erwartet.

Für positive Nachrichten sorgte auch der Konjunkturindex der Einkaufsmanager aus dem Großraum Chicago. Das an den Finanzmärkten viel beachtete Konjunkturbarometer kletterte im Juli auf 55,9 von 52,5 Punkten im Juni und lag damit über der durchschnittlichen Analystenprognose von 54,0 Zählern.

Die US-Börsen reagierten mit kräftigen Kursgewinnen auf die Konjunkturdaten. In Frankfurt drehte der Dax ins Plus und stieg auf ein Jahreshoch. Der Dollar legte zum Euro zu.

Die Staatsanleihen beiderseits des Atlantiks verzeichneten d…

[ThaiGuru]

Sterling Mining steigt immer höher!

Heute im Tagesverlauf bereits auf 2.95 Dollar geklettert.

Schlusskurs bei 2.70 Dollar, oder ein weiteres Plus von 12.50%!!

STERLING MINING (Other OTC:SRLM.PK)
Last Trade
4:00pm · 2.70 Change
+0.30 (+12.50%) Prev Cls
2.40 Open
2.50 Volume
360,300

Day`s Range
2.50 - 2.95

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

July 30, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled lower at $356.50 an ounce, down $4.90 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold fell lower on Fund and bank selling as the U.S. dollar gained moderately against the Euro. "It is dollar related," said one New York desk trader. "The euro slipped to $1.13.84, which is what I think put a little pressure on the gold, but it`s not a really a bad drop because we`ve been around this level overnight already," he said. "Gold on Monday touched resistance (near $370) and backed off with the weakness in the euro. It`s following the euro pretty closely," another desk trader said. John Roque, senior vice-president of Natexis Bleichroeder Inc. in New York, remains "bullish on gold and gold stocks and we like the recent action in silver." He noted in a market comment last week that silver faced a resistance level at $4.90 an ounce and then at $5.15, but added that "we believe it works above there." In last week`s comment, he said "suffice it to say that we still like gold," adding that he believes bullion will eventually climb to $500 an ounce.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $357.75 an ounce, down from $359.10 an ounce at the morning fixing. Gold dropped on the back of a weaker Euro. Technically, the market`s move below $360 support should lead to further technical losses toward the $357 area, according to a Societe Generale daily market note. Traders said the precious metal was finding support around $358, but thought that level would eventually give way, taking gold down towards the lower reaches of its recent $340-368 range. "I think gold will trade back to the $352-48 area over the coming sessions but I still remain positive longer-term with jewellery and investment demand increasing while producer de-hedging programs continue," James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com said in his daily report. "Gold has eased back a little today, but I don`t think the move is of particular significance," said Peter Hillyard, analyst at ANZ Investment Bank. "Prices are trading within a 357-363 (usd/oz) range and I think today`s dip is really just part of the normal cut-and-thrust of the market," he said. "In an absence of market-driving news, gold has reverted to trading on the currencies," he added.

The U.S. dollar remained resilient in spite of yesterday’s grim consumer confidence data. "The dollar sentiment was little affected by the much weaker than expected US consumer confidence data, indicating that investors remain optimistic that a US economic recovery is close," said West LB analyst Michael Klawitter. "It would need further disappointment from the data coming later this week to change the dollar sentiment to the worse," he said. "The market is still looking Thursday and Friday for a clear picture of the macro story," said Fatih Yilmaz, currency strategist at Bank of America in London. But, he admitted, "it will take massively positive data to push the dollar outside these trading ranges," he said. "It is interesting that the dollar managed to recover after the soft data and it appears the relationship between higher bond yields and the dollar has been re-established," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange research at Credit Agricole Indosuez. "Markets appear more comfortable with the view that growth will recover although there is still some confusion about how a recovery story should be played."

According to Geraldine Concagh, senior economist with AIB Global Treasury, the dollar`s resilience to the numbers shows how strong recovery hopes for the US are, with traders anticipating that the rest of this week`s data, which includes the manufacturing ISM and non-farm payrolls for July, will underpin their optimism. "Both are expected to show that the economic activity is picking up. The dollar was also boosted by comments from the Fed`s Robert McTeer who said that there were numerous reasons to believe in an economic pick-up and that a fall in consumer confidence was no cause for concern," she said. "The euro will be in the spotlight this morning with French business and Italian consumer confidence reports due for release. Later in the day we have the Fed`s Beige Book, which will form the basis for discussion at the August FOMC meeting. It is likely to suggest increased signs of a pick-up in activity," she added.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold fell $5.00 in Hong Kong to $359.55. Gold slipped in Asia on Wednesday but held stubbornly above $360 an ounce as profit-taking and a firmer dollar vied with weaker stocks and a spill in U.S. consumer confidence. Traders said the urge to snatch profits spilled over from New York after gold pulled back from an overnight high of $365.10 an ounce. "There`s been some Japanese selling and probably some light fund liquidation of some long positions as well," said Martin Mayne, associate director of NM Rothschild in Sydney. "I think people are disappointed the market wasn`t able to push higher to the $365-$367 level," he said. Traders said profit takers emerged after Shanghai gold hit a 7-week high Tuesday. "Domestic gold prices fell from the opening bell today, with sellers dominating the market," said a trader at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Shanghai. "Commercial banks need to take profits, while producers think current prices are good for sale," he added.

"The dollar is continuing to benefit from optimism over the US economic outlook," said Paul Chertkow, an analyst with the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, adding that optimism over the upcoming data was helping the dollar overcome the poor consumer confidence data. "In light of these reports, the foreign exchange market ignored the consumer confidence survey of the Conference Board published yesterday," he noted. Japan`s vice finance minister for international affairs Zembei Mizoguchi said Wednesday that market demand, not Japanese intervention, was lending the dollar its strength. In recent months, Japanese authorities had been aggressively buying dollars and selling yen to weaken the yen in clandestine operations. The dollar shrugged off the unexpected decline in the Conference Board`s consumer confidence index to hold near a four-week high against the yen on speculation over better data later in the week. "I think the market was trying to bet on good numbers later in the week," said Koji Fukaya, chief forex analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. The dollar’s recent upward correction is likely to top out around Y121 next week, said Satoshi Tate, a vice president for foreign exchange at UFJ Bank. "I think the dollar’s going to strengthen a bit more," he said. "But the medium- to long-term outlook is still for dollar weakness."


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

Liberian rebels and forces loyal to President Charles Taylor fought fiercely for control of last-stand bridges in the capital Wednesday as residents in the country`s second city counted bodies after battles there. With Liberia`s two biggest cities now gripped by fighting, a long-awaited multinational reconnaissance mission left Ghana en route to the capital Monrovia where it is due to study the logistics of deploying up to 3,000 West African peacekeepers. Aircraft engine trouble initially forced the mission to turn back, but it took off again later. Taylor`s military commanders in Monrovia said fighting raged around New Bridge and Gabriel Tucker Bridge -- gateways to the heart of a city besieged by rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) for 12 days.

Israeli officials told the Bush administration there was growing evidence that Iran was stepping up support for Palestinian militants following the war in Iraq, people close to the discussions said on Tuesday. Israeli officials also told Washington that Tehran was accelerating efforts to develop nuclear weapons that could strike the Jewish state and other U.S. allies in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon raised the issues during his White House meeting with President Bush, who warned a week earlier that Iran and Syria would be "held accountable" if they supported terrorism.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

Rates for 30-year loans, the most commonly used home mortgage, rose to 5.87 percent in the latest week from 5.72 percent in the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. Demand for refinancings as measured by the trade group`s refinance index plummeted 32.9 percent to 4,145.8 in the week ended July 25. The refinancing index is at lows not seen since Dec. 20, 2002, when it hit 4,101.0. The purchase index, a measure of demand for loans to buy homes, meanwhile fell 3.5 percent to 426.9. The drop in demand diminishes the key support that housing has provided the U.S. economy in recent years. Record home sales and refinancings have been an important support for a struggling economy in recent years because it encourages spending as owners outfit their new homes with furniture and appliances. Low rates have allowed many homeowners to cut borrowing costs by refinancing their loan. Many homeowners have withdrawn equity from their homes with the help of cash-out refinancings and used the money to pay down debt or support spending on goods and services.

The U.S. government will sell a record $60 billion in Treasu…

The ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort index rose to -17 in the week ended July 27, near its firmest levels of the year, compared to -21 in the previous week. In the poll`s buying climate gauge, which measures respondents` willingness to spend, moved up 2 percentage points to 41 percent, its highest level this year. Fifty-six percent of respondents rated their personal finances as excellent or good, up 4 percentage points from the prior week. The results of the ABC/Money tally contrast with the sharp and unanticipated drop in the Conference Board`s U.S. index of consumer confidence.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said its National Activity Index inched up to -0.32 in June from a revised -0.40 in May, reflecting higher output at U.S. firms but a persistently soft labor market. The unemployment rate jumped to 6.4 percent in June. The Chicago index`s three-month moving average moved up to -0.58 in June from -0.70 in May, suggesting below-trend growth continued even after worries about the war in Iraq faded into the background. The report said its data also signaled reduced inflationary pressures over the coming year.


Comment:

Gold got tagged for a loss in the latest trading sessions as the U.S. dollar “strengthened” against major currencies prompting month-end short covering in the U.S. dollar and profit taking in the precious metals by Funds, banks, and speculators. On the other hand losses should be limited as short-covering and bargain hunting emerges on price dips. For now the focus for short term traders will be dependent on some key U.S. economic data due tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow the U.S. will release the second-quarter gross domestic product data, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers` Index for July. The July employment report is due Friday. Longer term the dollar is expected to weaken as cumulative pressures of soaring current account, trade, and budget deficits take a toll and massive dollar creation continues in an effort to stimulate the economy and leading to inflationary pressures. Physical demand remains strong and jewelry demand will soon return toward late summer ahead of central Asian festival season and the western holiday season later in the year.


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ThaiGuru]

Zum steigenden Dollar Chart, passt die untenstehende Bloomberg Meldung ja wie zugeschnitten!

Bloomberg schreibt die Japaner intervenieren am Devisen Markt durch die grössten je dagewesenen Käufe von US Dollar, gegen Yen! Yen im Gegenwert von $75.3 Milliarden US Dollar sollen sie dafür dieses Jahr bereits schon aufgewendet haben.

Darum steigt der Dollar, und nicht etwa wegen irgenwelchen echten, oder vorläufigen Zahlen in den USA, wie uns eine Nachrichtenagentur heute allzugerne weissmachen möchte!






http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=a.CF3v…

Japan

Japan Sells Record Amount of Yen to Protect Exporters (Update2)

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan sold more yen from January through July than in any other entire year as it tried to stem a currency gain that threatens the nation`s exports.

The Bank of Japan sold a record 9.03 trillion yen ($75.3 billion) this year according to figures on the Ministry of Finance Web site. The sales included 2.03 trillion yen from June 27 through July 29, more than double the highest estimate among 10 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Ministry of Finance ``is determined to avoid yen appreciation,`` said Toshi Honda, London-based currency strategist at Mizuho Corporate Bank, a unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan`s largest bank by assets. Without the sales, the Japanese currency would have strengthened to 110 per dollar, he said, versus about 120 today.

Keeping the yen from rising has helped exporters, whose sales abroad account for about 10 percent of Japan`s economy. Honda Motor Co., Japan`s second-biggest automaker by sales, yesterday boosted its full-year earnings forecast because it lowered its outlook for the currency.

Japan`s currency sales for 2003 have passed the previous ful…

Yen May Fall Further

(Wird den User Norged und seine Yen Calls sicher nicht sehr freuen!)

Hiroshi Watanabe, head of the ministry`s International Department, indicated the Japanese currency may decline further, speaking in Tokyo prior to today`s release.

``The yen can weaken,`` he said. ``I don`t think the correction process is over.`` The Japanese economy, the second- biggest in the world after the U.S., has suffered three recessions in the past 12 years.

The yen was at 120.02 to the dollar at 8 p.m. in Tokyo, from 120.27 late in New York yesterday. It is down 1 percent against the dollar this year.

Japan ``has done a good job of helping push the yen below 120,`` said Minoru Shioiri, Tokyo-based senior manager of foreign exchange and treasuries at Mitsubishi Securities Co., the brokerage unit of Japan`s third-largest bank. Shioiri spoke before the ministry released today`s figures.

Japan kept the yen from rising even as overseas investors bought more shares in the nation. Figures from the Tokyo Stock Exchange showed overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese equities for a 15th week in the seven days ended July 25.

The ministry`s efforts have been ``very effective,`` said Tomoya Masano, who helps oversee $21 billion globally as a Tokyo- based fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., speaking before the release. ``The yen would have been a lot stronger as foreign equity purchases continued.``

Pimco runs the world`s biggest bond fund.

Last Updated: July 31, 2003 07:46 EDT

[Magor]

Seit der Umstellung bei Comdirect ist da nur noch Chaos ...
Die Listen sind unhandlich und undurchsichtig geworden, die Charts ebenfalls, ein Kopieren oder versenden per mail blockiert den empfangenden Rechner, per .doc geht alles nur noch in Zeitlupe : - ((
und immer, wenn´s mal dringend reinwillst, haste das hier:

"Sehr geehrte Nutzerin, sehr geehrter Nutzer,
aufgrund dringender Wartungsarbeiten steht Ihnen die Website der comdirect bank kurzfristig nicht zur Verfügung. Wir bitten um Verständnis. "

Da habe ich langsam kein Verständnis mehr ...
hat jemand von Euch Empfehlung für eine gute, auch dauerhaft funktionierende Alternative?

Grüße
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

July 31 - Gold $354.40 down $2 - Silver $5.10 up 4 cents

US Targeting Gold Price/Silver Action Powerful/Bonds A Nightmare

"The ultimate victory in competition is derived from the inn… Howard Cosell


(I once had lunch with Howard Cosell at the 21 Club in New York. He was every bit a character in person as you saw on television.)

A very dramatic day. Before the US economic announcements this morning, gold was slightly higher even though the dollar was very firm. Silver was very bubbly, trading up 5 cents. Very good I thought. Then I became concerned The Gold Cartel was setting us up. After all, gold already gapped down the last two days on the opening. Three in a row is usually a no-no.

After some positive economic news hit the tape, the cabal forces came out swinging, taking gold down sharply. Yet after filling a gap close to $353, gold turned right around to go up on the day even though the dollar was soaring. Meanwhile, silver acted like a racehorse stomping to get out of the starting gate, rising to $5.21 early on in the trading session.

Hudson Trading was the early gold seller. Our sources felt the selling was done for cabal groupie Moore Capital. Funds were also sellers along with Deutsche Bank. Other banks were early buyers. Late action was so hectic I didn’t hear who was responsible for bashing gold down near the end of the Comex session.

In the silver pit it was rumored a Refco Fund is heavily sho…

Today may have been a significant watershed day for gold. Why? Because it appears more and more likely we ARE in the midst of that "Paradigm Shift" as far as investment in gold is concerned. If that is the case, The Gold Cartel is not going to be able to continue their con game. The price of gold will explode sooner, rather than later. What is key:

*Previously discussed outside markets, which might be indica…

It wasn’t long ago these same investors placed their bets on our Fed/Treasury keeping short AND long rates down for the foreseeable future. They have been bagged and aren’t likely to plunge back into the bond market anytime soon. The short-term US rates are too low to be of any real interest. With inflation running much higher than the interest our short rates provide, we have negative real interest rates in the US. That scenario is not attractive to the big money crowd. Stock P/E ratios are more representative of a top than a bottom. The logical go to investment is GOLD, which is why the crooked cabal is doing all they can to keep the price down. They are desperate to keep gold excitement subdued. The best way to accomplish that objective is to knock the price down.

The Gold Cartel’s problem is the cash market is too strong. More and more investors want to buy gold on the dips along with the persistent and aggressive Indians (John Brimelow has been ALL OVER this). The cabal is huffing and puffing to turn the tech specs to sellers as they need their supply to hit the market - especially right now with the bond market in turmoil.

The cabal succeeded yesterday as the Comex open interest dropped 8140 contracts to 229,979. Most likely, it fell today too. However, Gold Cartel shorts may not have much more time to be prudent and cover. Silver and the bond markets have been lost by the market managers. Gold is next. We ought to see gold take out $370 in August and blow through $400.

The silver open interest keeps growing and now stands at 108,655, up 156 contracts yesterday.

The Silver Streak is leaving the station. Get ready to see some silver fireworks not seen for many, many years.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, July 31, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.55, PM $$7.79, with world gold at $356.20 and $354.80. Very high: lavishly ample for legal imports. The last time premiums were this high was during the mid $320s bottom in May. While one hesitates to lay heavy emphasis on one day’s readings, this is too low a price of gold unless the dollar makes a huge rally.

No leadership from TOCOM as usual: on static volume equal to 38,930 Comex lots (-2.8% from yesterday), the active contract fell 17 yen, but $US gold went out up 10c. Once again there are references to Australian dealer selling as the ruling force during Japanese hours. During the Japanese day the yen rallied mildly, but subsequent to the Tokyo close, the yen has once again slumped: a market ingredient which, as noted yesterday, is capable of energizing TOCOM speculators. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 90,000 contracts. (Est volume today 61,000, rising 27% in last half hour as gold was crushed down to its’ low. Surprise!)

Yesterday (and today), as expected, furious attacks were mounted on gold during NY hours as dealers and predator funds attempted to force out recently-positioned longs:

"The opening print proved to be the session high as New York…

In ScotiaMocatta’s words. They add:

"news from the Comex that the open interest had risen anothe…

This fact has clearly chilled bullion bank commentator constructiveness on gold, and indeed it is remarkable that a speculator effort which drove gold into the $370s in February (when the dollar was 5% stronger) could not hold the $360 level more than a week this month.

So the issue has returned to whether Western hemisphere specs or Indian/Middle Eastern physical buyers are the key force in bullion short term. The latter are more disposed to buy gold than at any time since the major early May low and I judge them liable to win. So today, despite the dollar rally, do the gold shares.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Gold



Silber

[Tr@dex]

Jetzt geht es Gold wieder an den Kragen.
Greenspan und Co schaffen es aber auch immer wieder die Massen zu täuschen.
Überall hört man es geht wieder aufwärts.
USA wieder die Konjunkturlokomotive usw...
Der psychologische Effekt wird meiner Meinung aber enorm sein.
Sehe für den Goldpreis eher fallende Kurse,ganz zu schweigen von Kursen > 400 US Dollar bis Jahresende!

[hpoth]

Wart´s doch erstmal ab, wir haben eine ganz normale Korrektur die kann bis 348 $ noch gehen, ja selbst bis 340 da ist der aufwärts Trend eben immer ´noch intakt.Nicht Jammern zukaufen heißt die Deviese, außerdem kommt auch bald wardriver wieder mit seinen Kommentare, dann gehts wieder bergauf. Ich sehe bis Jahresende einen Goldpreis zwischen 400 und 425.Es ist doch besser wenn sich der Goldpreis langsam nach oben bewegt, zu steile Anstiege fordern immer wieder Verkäufe heraus.MFG hpoth

[valueinvestor]

@hpoth
Wenn du das denkst, solltest du dir mal ganz genau seabridge gold anschauen.

[hpoth]

@
valueinvestor,

Auf meinen langerfristigen Point & Figure ( 5$ Umkehr ) sind wir immer noch im aufwärts Trend,der 2$ Umkehr Chart kann sogar bis 338 $ gehen ohne den Trend zuverletzen, nur der 1$ Umkehr Chart ist abwärts kann bis $ 339 gehen.Da wir übergekauft waren und Stochaski alle ein kurzfristiges Verkaufsignal gegeben haben, hätte man bei $360 rausgehen
können.Auch brend hatte ja angekündigt eine Korrektur in dere 31 und 32. Woche, so genau ist das immer nicht zu bestimmen.Aber im September sehen wir bestimmt neue Hi`s
Bitte gebe mir doch das Symbol von dieser Aktie.gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

@
valueinvestor,

habe es gerade gefunden, danke mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

Wie es scheint hat die Bank of Japan etwas Mühe den Dollar weiter nach oben zu treiben!

[ThaiGuru]

Habe mir gerade einen Blick ins Gold und Silber Aktien Portefeuille erlaubt!

Erwartet hätte ich eigentlich stagnierende Kurse bei den Silber Minen, und fallende Preise bei den Gold Minen Titeln.

Weit gefehlt, die Goldaktien Kurse sind am Steigen!!!!

Die Silber Aktien Kurse erreichten heute im Falle von HECLA MINING und COEUR D`ALENE neue 52 Wochen Hochs, bei steigenden Umsätzen!

Auch die BEMA Gold erreichte heute ein neues 52 Wochen Hoch mit 1.75 Dollar pro Aktie!

Selbst die Rand Stärke geschundenen Südafrikaner DROOY, HGY, und GFI sind zur Zeit noch im Plus.

Und das alles bei fallenden Goldpreisen!

Wir Gold Bugs haben ja noch viel Guthaben vom letzten grossen Goldpreis Anstieg auf 388.- Dollar her, als die Gold Minen zu unserer aller Verwunderung nicht mitgestiegen sind.

Jetzt hoffen wir doch einfach mal, dass uns dieses alte Guthaben, in dieser Zeit der "korrigierenden" Gold Preis Notierungen, wieder zurück erstattet werden.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[erdede]

wieder mal ein dramatischer Schluss zum Wochenausklang...tja

Nimmt mir schon Wunder wann das Gold einigermassen, einigermassen seinen waren Wert erhält...

Was meinst Du ThaiGuru?

erdede

[ThaiGuru]

@Tr@dex

Im Gegenteil zu Dir bin ich heute sehr gut gelaunt!

Trotz der von den Gold Bullion Banken heute weiter gedrückten Gold Preisen.

Meine Gold Minen, und vor allem die Mischminen Gold/Silber markieren sich neue Preis Hochs!

Jetzt auf einen Gold Preis Stand zum Jahresende von weit unter 400.- Dollar zu schliessen? Befürchte Du siest da viel zu schwarz.

Es geht bald wieder hoch mit den Gold Preisen, glaub mir`s!

Zeiten wo Du Preise von 400.- Dollar pro Unze Gold, oder 350.- Dollar, wie gerade heute im Tagesverlauf, als unglaublich günstige verpasste Einkaufsgelegenheiten ansehen, und vermissen wirst, werden vielleicht schneller Realität werden, als Du Dir im Moment noch vorstellen kannst.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[ThaiGuru]

@erdede

Noch in diesem Jahr!

Bestimmt über 450.- Dollar pro Unze!

Wahrscheinlich sogar noch weit mehr!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[matthiasch]

Hallo Thai

Ich klinke mich auch wiedermal in den Thread ein und bedanke mich gleichzeitig für die Mühen, die Du Dir für uns machst!

Gruß matthiasch

[silverpwd]

SO, jetzt kann man wieder long gehen in dem Scheiss.
Gold rocks !

[Leon der Profi]

Wenn man die Minen als Vorläufer betrachtet, dann sehen wir beim Gold jetzt nichts anderes als den kurzen Shake-Out vor dem Ausbruch, den wir bei den Minen vor 3 Wochen hatten.
Wie auch immer: So offensichtlich wie heute war die Manipulation wohl noch nie...

[silverpwd]

#Leon der Profi

Seeeeeeehr richtig !!!!!
Und nicht nur die Gold-Manipulation.
Vorallendigen unser Wunderkind DAX ist die Manipulation pur heute und mein Gefühl sagt mir die ganzen letzten 10 Tage (exakt genauso wie beim März Tief, nur umgekehrt).
Drecksgesindel.
Aber wenn man es durchschaut hat, gehts besser. Und es gibt immer mehr , die es durchschauen, die Banken und das restliche Pack hats immer schwerer.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=4712302&act…

Breaking news

(AFX-Focus) 2003-08-01 08:40 GMT: Gold Fields Q4 net earnings fall on declining sales, forex changes

LONDON (AFX) - Gold Fields Ltd said net earnings for the fou…

The average rand/US dollar exchange rate strengthened 8 pct during the quarter from 8.38 in the March 2003 quarter to 7.74 this quarter, affecting revenue significantly.

The US dollar gold price was lower this quarter at 349 usd per ounce compared to 353 per ounce last quarter

The lower gold sales can be attributed primarily to lower underground grades at Kloof, it said.

Included in this quarter`s earnings are exceptional items of 272 mln rand (31 mln usd), which includes a profit on the sale of investments of 302 mln rand (34 mln usd) and exceptional health care costs of 27 mln rand (3 mln usd).

Operating costs were maintained at 2.224 bln rand (281 mln usd) for the quarter, compared to 2.172 bln (256 mln). Attributable gold production for the fourth quarter decreased to 1.041 mln ounces from 1.072 mln ounces in the third quarter, of which 31 pct was produced from international operations.

Gold production at Kloof, at 260,000 ounces, was 38,000 ounces lower than the previous quarter because of lower grades and less shifts due to the June quarter public holidays. The decline in grades was exacerbated by short-term mining mix variations.

Gold production is not expected to be materially different in the September quarter, the company said, although it added that should the rand/US dollar exchange rate continue at current levels, this, together with the higher than inflation wage increases, is expected to further erode margins.

In addition, the profit generated on sales of investments this quarter, will not be repeated in the September quarter and at the current Australian dollar exchange rate gains will not be generated on the currency financial instruments.

As a consequence of the above factors, earnings are expected to be sharply lower in the September 2003 quarter.

A final dividend of 100 SA cents has been declared.

[e-mail]

rf/

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews



FOR: YAMANA GOLD INC.

TSX SYMBOL: YRI

JULY 31, 2003 - 17:22 ET

Yamana Gold Completes CDN$55 Million Financing to Fund Brazilian Acquisitions

TORONTO, ONTARIO--

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES OR FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWS SERVICES

Yamana Gold Inc. (formerly Yamana Resources Inc.) is pleased to announce that it has completed its previously announced Cdn$55 million private placement equity financing. Canaccord Capital Corporation acted as lead agent in a syndicate which also included BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and Westwind Partners Inc.

Yamana issued and sold 45,833,334 subscription receipts at a price of Cdn$1.20 per subscription receipt. Each subscription receipt will entitle the holder to acquire one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant of Yamana, without payment of additional consideration. Each whole warrant will be exercisable to purchase one common share at a price of Cdn$1.50 for a period of five years from closing.

The net proceeds of the financing, after deducting the agents` commission and expenses and the amount of $750,000 paid to Yamana, will be held in escrow pending completion of the previously announced acquisitions in Brazil, which are expected to be completed in August 2003.

The number of securities underlying the subscription receipts described above is based on the previously announced consolidation of the outstanding shares of Yamana on the basis of the consolidation factor of 27.86 for which shareholder approval has been obtained and will result in current shareholders of Yamana holding 4,892,460 post-consolidation common shares before giving effect to the financing and the acquisitions. In connection with the proposed acquisitions, Yamana has changed its name to Yamana Gold Inc. The consolidation will be effected prior
to the completion of the acquisitions.

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy.

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

Gold producers cut hedges, disagree on philosophy



Friday August 1, 12:11 PM EDT

(Figures in U.S. dollars, unless stated)

By Nicole Mordant

TORONTO, Aug 1 (Reuters) - North America`s three big gold producers have slashed hedge books further this past quarter, and promised more cuts, but managements` philosophy on the contentious practice remains poles apart.

Executives at Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Placer Dome Inc. (PDG) used the opportunity of results week to pontificate on the pro`s and cons of committing for sale still unmined ounces.

Always with camps of supporters and detractors, hedging has become an even bigger flashpoint over the past two years as the bullion price surged to six-and-a-half year highs.

Staunch anti-hedgers argue that companies with chunky forwar…

Pro-hedgers say committing a portion of unmined ounces at a fixed price just makes prudent financial sense in a notoriously volatile market.

None was more outspoken than Pierre Lassonde, the president of Newmont, the world`s biggest gold producer. Lassonde, who has developed a reputation as somewhat of a gold market sage, said Newmont would remain true to its no-hedging philosophy.

"It seems obvious to us that the shareholders of gold mining… Lassonde said this week.

Newmont has closed out about 10 million ounces of hedges since it took over Australia`s Normandy Mining Ltd. and Canada`s Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. early last year in deals that propelled it to the top of the gold producers` rank.

This past quarter, the Denver-based company stripped 3.5 mil…

MARKET REWARDS THE HEDGE-FREE

"It is clearly the non-hedge (stocks) which have been the wi…Lassonde said.

Newmont`s stock has risen about 123 percent since February 2001, when the gold price first started rising off a low of $260 an ounce.

Shares of aggressive mid-tier miner, Goldcorp (G),hedging`s biggest corporate critic, have rocketed 275 percent in the same period. The Toronto-based miner is hedge-free, and grabs every opportunity to tell the market so.

By comparison, shares of Barrick, the world`s third biggest …

He says the book, equivalent to 19 percent of Barrick`s gold reserves, is flexible enough to not be a hindrance and has served the company well over the past decade. "We will reduce but not back away from using hedging as a tool," Wilkins said.

The hedging approach of Vancouver-based Placer, No.5 on the world production ranks, could be said to fall somewhere between that of Barrick and Newmont.

CEO Jay Taylor is on record as saying he wants the book to fall to about 15 percent of Placer`s reserves. Forward-sold ounces now equal about 20 percent of reserves, after Placer reduced its hedge book by 700,000 ounces to 10.8 million.

Placer`s shares are up a third since February 2001.


©2003 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?a=0&o=26048

Friday, August 01, 2003

BUSINESS

Gold Fields toys with splitting operations

Johannesburg

01 August 2003 16:04

South Africa`s second largest gold miner Gold Fields is toying with the idea of splitting the group into two companies, one housing its South African operations and the other its international operations, chief executive officer (CEO) Ian Cockerill said on Friday.

There are two streams of thought on gold companies, one which advocates splitting companies to improve shareholder value and the other that gold companies should have critical mass, Cockerill said at an investor presentation.

The current trend in the international gold mining industry is toward consolidation with the formation of mega gold miners like Newmont of the US and South Africa`s AngloGold.

As part of the continuation of that consolidation process, AngloGold is currently in the process of attempting to merge with Ghana`s Ashanti Gold Fields.

The major reason for Gold Fields considering a spilt is the move by Mvelaphanda Resources to take a stake of 15% in its South African assets.

"Mvela has a significant role to play in Gold Fields South African operations," Cockerill said.

Gold Fields has gold mines in South Africa, Ghana and Australia.

The group produced record gold output in its financial year to June 2003 of 4,334-million ounces, of which over 60% was mined in South Africa. - I-Net Bridge

[ThaiGuru]

http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=…

NY gold ends at 2-week nadir on hefty fund sales



Friday August 1, 3:16 PM EDT

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) - COMEX gold futures plunged to a two-week low on Friday, pressured by aggressive fund selling that shoved prices through brittle chart support on the way down, dealers and analysts said.

Benchmark December gold on the New York Mercantile Exchange`s COMEX division shed $8 to $347.80 an ounce, after it traded from $356.90 to $346, its lowest close July 18.

"It was very heavy fund selling," commented one New York gol…

Analysts said the drop took many in the market by surprise, considering there was no major impetus like a sharply stronger dollar to apply pressure to prices. Dollar strength is bearish for dollar-denominated gold because it diminishes its affordability overseas.

"It was pretty aggressive and the longs have to be disappoin…

Gold has fallen for four straight days since the funds on Monday lifted it to a six-week high at $369.70.

Analysts see the market as carrying a burdensome speculative net long position and capped by stiff resistance.

Futures also stayed sensitive to spot gold`s moves in Europe on Friday after the latest batch of U.S. economic data.

Bullion was last quoted at $347.60/8.35, sharply below Thursday`s late New York quote at $354.00/4.80. London dealers set the afternoon spot reference price at $352.35.

In currencies, the dollar fell across the board after the latest U.S. economic data were not as strong as some had hoped.

Institute of Supply Management figures were within expectations and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July was stronger than expected, but the Labor Department said the economy lost jobs in July.

COMEX September silver <0#SI:> lost 2.3 cents to $5.097 an ounce, in a range of $5.175 to $5.06. Spot hit $5.08/10 versus $5.13/5.15 at Thursday`s New York close. Friday`s London fix was $5.12, its highest since April 2000.

NYMEX October platinum <0#PL:> fell $6.80 to $678.90 an ounce after tumbling through technical support at around $680. Spot was quoted at $677.00/682.00.

September palladium <0#PA:> was the only gainer, rising $3.25 to $185.25 an ounce. Spot palladium hit $180.50/186.50.


©2003 Reuters Limited.

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com

The Afternoon Gold Report...
by Jon Warner

August 1, 2003 (usagold.com)


NEW YORK:

New York spot gold settled lower at $346.20 an ounce, down $8.20 an ounce from yesterday’s close. Gold plunged lower on aggressive Fund and speculator selling in the last minutes of trade as prices dipped below support levels even on a weaker U.S. dollar and falling equities as skittish players headed for the exits ahead of the weekend. "It was very heavy fund selling," commented one New York gold trader at a bank. "It looked to us that they might even be getting a little bit short in gold." Analysts said the drop took many in the market by surprise, considering there was no major impetus like a sharply stronger dollar to apply pressure to prices. "It was pretty aggressive and the longs have to be disappointed," one metals market watcher said, noting that the selling accelerated as prices slid through the first support area at $351-$350 in December futures.

Gold prices are on the defensive amid "dollar strength, higher long term interest rates and the Fed Fund futures contract indicating about a 99 percent chance the Fed will not ease again any time soon," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. "The uptick in interest rates have been noticeable [and] higher rates are supportive for the greenback," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider. "Whenever news comes out that focuses market participants on economic growth differentials, the dollar has the advantage," he said.

The dollar retreated on Friday across the board after the latest U.S. economic data were not as strong as some had hoped and gave investors an excuse for some profit taking after a week of solid gains. "The data has not supported the giddiness over the U.S. economic recovery. It looks like the economy has turned the corner but it has not taken off and run away," said Joe Francomano, vice president of foreign exchange at Erste Bank in New York. "Is the dollar getting bashed around a bit, yes, but not terribly so. This is wrapped up in a lot of profit taking after a strong week," said Francomano. ``There`s very good momentum building up for the dollar,`` said Alex Beuzelin, head of currency strategy in Washington at Ruesch International, which conducts $10 billion in foreign- exchange transactions annually. ``Two of the most notable laggards in the economic recovery -- the labor markets and business investment -- are showing signs of improvement,`` he said. ``The numbers are very good for the dollar,`` said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at HSBC Securities USA in New York. ``They also raise optimism`` that tomorrow`s employment report ``will show considerable improvement,`` he said.

``In periods when U.S. bond yields are going up, gain on currency compensates for the larger capital loss on U.S. fixed- income assets,`` said Steven Englander, chief foreign-exchange strategist for North America at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``That`s been the historical pattern and that`s the way the market continues to look at it.`` Faster U.S. growth may work against the dollar to the extent it boosts imports, widening the trade deficit, said Michael Rosenberg, global head of foreign-exchange research at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. ``We`ve had sluggish growth and the deficit has continued to widen,`` Rosenberg said. ``You have to wonder what happens going forward when the economy starts to do better.`` Rosenberg forecasts the dollar will weaken to $1.20 per euro within six months.


EUROPE:

London gold was fixed this afternoon at $352.35 an ounce, down from $353.65 an ounce at the morning fixing. "We expect gold to test support at $350 in coming days and would not rule out a move down to the recent low just above $340," UBS Investment Bank said in a daily report. Analysts were also mindful of a recent trend that had seen metals -- both precious and base -- attract buying from investors looking to place their cash in alternative assets. "An interesting theme recently has been the buying across metals generally, which we saw a lot of last week and earlier this week...that highlights a broader trend of trading commodities as an asset class," Kamal Naqvi, analyst with Macquarie Investment Bank, said. "I think that in the current climate you would expect to see more of that," he said, adding that he would not rule out gold testing $350 beforehand. "Given that every one cent move in the euro-dollar exchange rate is roughly equivalent to a $3.10/oz move in the gold price, this leaves gold vulnerable to further long liquidation in the short term," said analyst Alan Williamson of HSBC.

"The short-term risks remain that the dollar continues to strengthen, particularly if this afternoon`s U.S. data surprises on the upside," he added. Profit taking and long liquidation by speculative players in particular is expected to cap the market around $358/oz currently, dealers said. "We expect gold to test support at $350/oz in the coming days and would not rule out a move down to the recent low just above $340/oz," said analyst John Reade of UBS.

Boosted by the U.S. data, the dollar touched a three-month high against the yen and a two-week peak on the euro. "The market is already looking for strong numbers after the good figures yesterday, so if anything the mood might be more profit-taking on the recent rally in the dollar," said Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered. "Yesterday`s US data release, whether lagging indicator or leading indicator - was strong, thereby continuing this week`s trend of the strengthening of the dollar," Naeem Wahid, strategist at HBOS Treasury Services said. "Again we expect a strong report giving strength to the US dollar," Wahid added.


ASIA:

Earlier spot gold fell $4.10 in Hong Kong to $352.95. Gold fell against a strong dollar in the face of profit taking as investors sold safe havens like precious metals and bonds. "I think people are trying to use the figures as an excuse to get rid of longs, or they have some fresh selling," said Ellison Chu, senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong. "Gold has been under pressure since yesterday...I think it`s mostly people trying to get rid of their long positions before the weekend -- and we saw some profit-taking yesterday as well," said Chu. "There are still plenty of bullish factors supporting gold, though clearly the direction of the USD will dictate future direction," ANZ Global Institutional Bank said Friday.

ABN Amro Morgan chief economist Michael Knox yesterday in an address to the Brisbane Mining Club predicted budget deficits in the US were likely to see the gold price average $378 an ounce between August 2003 and July 2005. And the strength in US budget surpluses in the late 1990s and 2000 had seen corresponding strength in the US dollar and weakness in other currencies and gold, he said. But the dramatic turnaround in the US budget, largely the result of a massive increase in military spending, should lead to a surge in gold, Mr Knox said. "What we`ve seen in the last three years is the most dramatic deterioration in the US budget balance," he said. "Basically what the data tells us is that when the US budget deficit increases the gold price goes up because the risk to hold US dollar securities goes up. "Not only will the gold price go up, but because the US budget deficit is sustained, the gold price will stay up." Gympie Gold managing director Harry Adams agrees with Mr Knox`s bullish outlook. "I would have to say that at the moment there are more signs that this is a positive gold market for the next two, three or four years than there is 90 per cent of the time. That`s based on fundamentals as well as just cyclical things," he said.

The dollar turned weaker against the yen in midafternoon trade, pressured by profit-taking after a sharp rise on stronger-than-expected GDP data. Hideyuki Tsukamoto, foreign exchange manager at Mizuho Bank, said the dollar will remain the strongest currency among the three majors, but added that the unit will likely encounter selling pressure at the upside against the yen and the euro. In addition, Tsukamoto said even though today`s US economic indicators signal a stronger-than-expected economic recovery, the upside of the dollar will likely remain top heavy. "As the dollar has kept rising from the first half level of 119.00 (against the yen), investors currently hold dollar-long positions... Even if today`s data showed a slightly better outcome, investors would not continue seeking the US currency," Tsukamoto said. Tsukamoto said the Japanese currency failed to benefit from a report by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun that the Cabinet Office will upgrade its overall assessment of the Japanese economy in its August report on the back of the recent strong rally on the equity market and the emerging signs of an economic recovery in the US. "The move (by the Cabinet Office) is in line with expectations among market participants. Investors did not see a need to change their current yen positions," Tsukamoto said. The upside of the dollar against the euro will likely turn top heavy at the 1.1000 level, according to Tsukamoto.


GEOPOLITICAL NEWS:

A vehicle packed with explosives blew up outside a hospital in a Russian region bordering Chechnya on Friday, killing at least 35 people and destroying the building, local officials said. President Vladimir Putin ordered his Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to fly to the scene of the attack at Russia`s army base of Mozdok, in the region of North Ossetia bordering Chechnya. "At least 20 people have been killed, the building is burning, and it is impossible to approach it. All four stories have collapsed," a spokesman for the local outlet of Russia`s emergencies ministry said. Russian news agencies quoted officials as saying a suicide bomber drove a truck loaded with explosives through the gate and detonated it.

Israel announced plans on Thursday to build new homes at a Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip in defiance of a U.S.-backed peace plan, just a day after President Bush said the initiative was on track. The Palestinians said the tender for 22 new homes in the Neveh Dekalim settlement was a blow to the peace "road map" and undermined efforts to rebuild trust after 34 months of Israeli-Palestinian conflict.


ECONOMIC NEWS:

The Labor Department said the jobless rate slid to 6.2 percent last month from 6.4 percent. The decline was caused by an exodus of people from the labor force, not by any surge in hiring. Employers slashed 44,000 jobs while unemployment for June was upwardly revised from 30,000 to a 72,000 as typically occurs but ignored by analysts. The government said 556,000 departed the labor force, the biggest drop since May 1995. Big drops in the labor force can occur as job seekers become discouraged and abandon their searches. Unless they are actively searching for a job, workers are not counted as unemployed. There were also signs of weakness elsewhere as the worker hours were cut back to 33.6 hours per week in July from 33.7 hours in June. Factory hours fell to 40.1 hours a week from 40.3 hours in the prior month.

The University of Michigan`s gauge of consumer confidence rose to 90.9 in July from June`s 89.7, market sources said on Friday. The component outlining perceptions of current economic conditions was unchanged, while the survey`s outlook measure fell to 83.7 from 86.4 in June. The Michigan findings ran counter to the Conference Board`s separate reading on confidence for July, released on Tuesday. That gauge fell unexpectedly on the month, in part due to persistent woes in the nation`s labor market.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Friday its manufacturing index pushed up to 51.8 in July, matching economists` projections and gaining from 49.8 in June. A reading above 50 in the index signals growth in the industrial sector that makes up about a sixth of the economy and has been hardest hit by the recession and meager recovery the past few years. A breakdown of the ISM components also pointed to yet stronger growth in coming months, with production rising as factory owners stepped up activity. However, workers were cut for the 34th straight month.


Comment:

Gold dived in the last minutes of trade even as the equities…

The name of the game continues to be “the dollar”. The dollar “strengthened” against major world currencies over the past several trading sessions as the “competitive currency devaluation” or “currency war” play out. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged for now. Meanwhile massive currency creation will continue as the U.S. Federal Reserve struggles to reflate in order to stimulate economic growth, however, export driven economies work hard to weaken their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar just to survive. Now that the “strong dollar policy” has been abandoned the heavy lifting will mostly occur at the hands of foreign governments and central banks. The dollar faces an uphill battle due to massive dollar creation in a sluggish economy, and soaring current account, trade, and budget deficits.

Many precious metals analysts had expected the pace of producer dehedging to fall off sharply over the last several months, however, dehedging continues at a steady pace and the mega-hedgers including AngloGold and Barrick have announced that they will continue to unwind hedgebooks. Dehedging has effectively worked to offset a decline in physical demand as the price of gold gained in recent months. Physical demand has rebounded as buyers slowly became comfortable with the higher price and bargain hunters have emerged on price dips. Gold jewelry demand has declined in western nations as jewelers have lost market share by relying on junk jewelry mixing a “little” gold with pot metal rather than high karat quality product as in Asia. However, investment demand has improved for precious metals. Meanwhile, mine output has declined slightly and will likely continue to decline as little exploration activity occurred in recent years due to the low gold price. Exploration activity is slowing rebounding as many mature mines exhaust low cost reserves with some miners having “gutted” the heart of some operations to survive the lean years and exploration activity will not replace these reserves for many years to come. For those few exploration efforts that yield potential economically viable mining projects there is the uphill battle with environmental, regulatory and political interests.

It is not hard to see that gold production will continue to decline over the next several years making the rare metals more precious as global population expands.


-Jon H. Warner-


E-Mail the current report to a friend or to yourself.
__________________________
Jon Warner is a professional geologist with nearly 24 years in exploration and project development in both mining and petroleum. Mr. Warner brings to the table an impressive industry contact list, thorough knowledge of the precious metals and energy markets as well as a practical understanding of gold`s role in the private investment portfolio. His strong knowledge in these fields has been demonstrated at the USAGOLD Discussion Forum where he posts on a regular basis as Black Blade.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



We invite you to stay tuned to the gold market through our DISCUSSION FORUM
featuring round the clock gold news & commentary from the public.

[ThaiGuru]

Inflation or Deflation? 2

http://www.zealllc.com/intelligence.htm

[ThaiGuru]

August 1 - Gold $346.20 down $8.20 - Silver $5.07 down 3 cents

The Gold Cartel Orchestrates Theft From Gold Specs

The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.
- Leo Nikolaevich Tolstoy, 1828 - 1910


With gold trading in the mid-$360 area the investment banks in The Gold Cartel, along with the Exchange Stabilization Fund, collectively stopped gold’s advance. Concerted activity such as this is a violation of the Sherman Anti-Trust laws. Nobody seems to care. Perhaps the specs who donated hard-earned money to The Gold Cartel might offer some objection. How many times do pockets need to be picked before someone screams BLOODY MURDER? This constant stuffing of the specs, after they have piled into gold, is nothing more than grand larceny by a bunch of white-collar thugs.

Bonds, stocks, and the dollar all reversed course today. But not gold. There were more specs to flush out while the cabal crowd covered their shorts, pocketing another grand or two per contract for a week’s work.

The open interest dropped 10,947 contracts yesterday, giving us a two-day total drop of close to 20,000. Another 15,000+ should have been flushed out today. The new total stands at 209,032 contracts.

Today’s gold bashing on a late Friday afternoon brings back …

John Brimelow notes that up until 1 PM EDT the Comex volume was 56,000, which is large. However, in the last half-hour alone it was 75,000 as the cabal did their thing:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

When gold recovered from an early $5 bashing after the Comex…

The dollar closed down .27 to 96.87, while the euro rose .25 to 112.51.

Bonds managed a half-point gain, but the 10-yr. note barely eked above unchanged.

Maybe gold was assaulted because the price of oil crashed. Nope, it was roaring higher with many of the oil contracts moving into contract high ground. Sep WTI closed at $32.31, up a whopping $1.77.

After the close, the COT report was released. As of last Tuesday:

*the commercials decreased their longs by 5,365 and increased their shorts by 36,542 contracts.
*the large specs increased their longs by 33,243 and reduced their shorts by 2795
*the commercials were net short around 110,000 contracts
*the large specs were net long around 75,000 contracts and the small specs long about 19,000 contracts.

Even with the known big spec liquidation of the last three d…

The registered Comex silver stocks fell a sizable 4.7 million ounces yesterday, which is more than 10% of the "not spoken for" supply on Comex. The silver open interest rose 3356 contracts to 112, 011. Silver might take out $5 early next week, but should turn right around and move to take out $5.20. If it were not for the blatant take down of gold by the bad guys, silver would be there now.

The action in silver, bonds, oil and the gold shares could n…

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.welt.de/data/2003/08/02/144644.html

Wieder mehr Arbeitslose im Juli

Nach Schätzung von Arbeitsmarktexperten ist die Zahl der Arbeitslosen um rund 72.500 Menschen gestiegen

Keine Besserung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in Sicht Foto: ddp

Berlin - Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen in Deutschland ist im Juli nach Informationen der „Welt am Sonntag“ wieder stark angestiegen. Nach Schätzung von Arbeitsmarktexperten waren rund 72.500 Menschen mehr ohne Arbeit als im Juni - insgesamt waren es danach rund 4,33 Millionen. Die genauen Zahlen wird die Bundesanstalt für Arbeit kommenden Mittwoch in Nürnberg vorlegen.

Als Grund sehen Experten, dass sich während der Urlaubszeit viele Betriebe mit der Wiederbesetzung freiwerdender Stellen zurückhalten. Der im Vergleich zum Vorjahr späte Beginn der Sommerferien in den bevölkerungsreichsten Bundesländern Nordrhein-Westfalen, Bayern und Baden-Württemberg schlägt in diesem Jahr voll auf die Juli-Zahlen durch.

Im Juni war die Zahl der Menschen ohne Beschäftigung dagegen noch überraschend stark um 85.000 auf 4.257.400 zurückgegangen. Einen Großteil der Abnahme führte die Bundesanstalt für Arbeit in Nürnberg jedoch auf verstärkte Maßnahmen zur Aktivierung von Arbeislosen und auf die Reformen am Arbeitsmarkt zurück.

Der bisher höchste Juli-Stand seit der Wiedervereinigung war im Jahr 1997 mit 4.354.300 erreicht worden. WELT.de/WamS/dpa

Artikel erschienen am 2. Aug 2003

[ThaiGuru]

Musing Over the Charts

By Yoshaviah



Notice the steady increase in the monetary base. I guess I can pick points on this chart and graph the curve and come up with an equation. Using a simple triangle, side a (x-axis or the base) is 13 years to 1 Jan 03. Side b (y-axis or height) is 450 units. Side c is very close to the size of the height (hypotenuse) at 450.187. Angle B (lower left) is 88.3452 degrees. The tan of angle B is 34.61, which is the slope or Y/X where Y is the dollar axis and X is the time axis. Therefore, the average increase in the monetary base has been about 34 billion dollars per year for the past 13 years. Now the Fed (affectionately known as "the Feed") is going to move it up to the 52.77 billion-a-year mark to provide the reserves to the fractional reserve banking system for the purchase of 475 billion in new government debt. (Using Rothbard`s formula X=(D/(MM-1)), where X is the amount of bonds the feed should buy, MM is the money multiplier, and D is the deficit amount to be financed.) According to Doug McIntosh, "Mr. Magoo has been forced to admit to the whore press that he will need to borrow nearly 475 Billion dollars between October 1st, 2003 and September 30th, 2004." (http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/mcintosh080403.html… It was Doug`s article that got my small brain thinking about this mess. Therefore, being a student of the banking system, I began to ponder this and decided to look at a few of my charts and make some notes. This increase is 65% percent higher than the 13-year average for a linear rate of change. Maybe this means that the (almost) linear rate of change is to be a thing of the past. Here I have assumed that the monetary base includes banking system reserves and will increase by the amount of reserves added by the Feed and that the money multiplier has and will remain constant. I have also assumed that foreign central banks will not be willing to fund the debt by reducing the level of their reserve holdings of the Feed`s notes.

Now let`s look at a chart of the gold price over the same period.



It is noted that gold was selling at $400 an ounce way back in 1990. Determining what the gold price should be now would require knowledge of the real inflation rate, mine production, recycled gold, demand, the amount of gold sold/leased into the markets from central banks, the short position in gold derivative contracts, and interest rates. Unfortunately, most all of this information is in dispute or not available. All the gold chart reveals is that the gold price has declined by $50 an ounce over the past 13 years or $3.8462 per ounce per year. Now that is funny. For every 34.6 billion dollar increase in the monetary base gold has declined by $3.85 an ounce! This means that roughly 3000 tonnes would have to be produced and sold at $350 an ounce every year in order to offset, on par, the increase in the monetary base. If mining production is 2500 tonnes per year then the central banks would have had to add 500 tonnes a year. (Here I assume that demand is at 3000 tonnes per year, a figure that is too low according to some, but derivatives could compensate, to some extent, for the difference.) That`s about 41 tonnes a month on average. But wait, according to Doug, Uncle Al has determined that 52.77 billion will be added between October 1st, 2003 and September 30th, 2004 (as noted above). All other things being equal Uncle Al would have to come up with 182 tonnes per month to hold the price at $350 an ounce. Now if Al is willing to let the gold price rise to $547 an ounce then he would not need to sell any more than the current 41 tonnes per month, all other things being equal of course. (By the way, $547 per ounce is the 62% "fib" level with the old low for gold at $35 and the old high at $875.) Didn`t I hear that central banks have plans to move up their sales rate from 400 tonnes to 500 per year? By itself that is not enough of an increase to hold the price at the $350 level. Not to worry, the Feed has other "tools" that it can use to help hold the price down. Let`s move on to the next chart.



Now if the Fed wanted to hold up stock prices and make everyone think that it is better to buy stocks than gold it might increase the amount of "repo" money available to bond dealers to pump up the market. Of course Uncle Al would never consider such a thing. That would be outright manipulation of the stock market. But then again if he wanted to keep tax money rolling into the treasury I think he might pump just a little bit. The next chart shows how a little "repo" money can go a long way.



Now let us consider the population chart. In free markets such an increase in population, as reflected in the chart below, would lead directly to deflation if the money supply where held at a constant. (I concur with Adam Smith and Murry Rothbard that deflation is the natural and beneficial order in free markets.)

This, of course, would require something close to a gold standard, no monopoly banking system, no government deficits, no trade deficits, and no interest loans, which, of course, would mean no wars, no welfare, and no greed. However, to the dismay of most, things are not this way at the present time. We have upon us in these United States of America the infamous "Feed", whose function is to suck the life-blood out of every citizen in the country (and the whole world for that matter). The Feed is the heart of the world banking system. Its tentacles reach into all the constitutional branches of government - the executive, the legislative, and the judicial branches - it is the heart beating inside the world`s system of central banks. As it prints new money with every new birth a slave is born somewhere in these here United States. Every new citizen is held liable for his or her share of all the debt printed by the Feed. With each new Federal Reserve Note printed all previous notes (affectionately known as "Ferns") become worth-less and less and less as time goes on. Thus, the national debt increases and increases with the increase in the population. The whole damn nation is held captive to the national debt, slaves to the Feed, and subject to hidden taxation through inflation. The Feed makes certain that no one benefits from the natural order of price deflation. It takes that prospect away from everyone.

A 40 million increase between 1990 and 2003. That`s an average of 3,076,923 per year. Imagine if all the able bodied persons where to have engaged in building houses instead of sitting around in offices or working out 20 hours a week in heath spas. There would be no homelessness. Now think about it - would it take 30 years to build everyone`s house? So why should everyone work for 30 years to pay for it? Well, this is where the Feed sucks the life-blood out of every citizen and makes them slaves to corporations and the banking system through interest on fiat money. Every citizen is born in debt and dies in debt. The Feed, like a giant parasite on society, keeps sucking and sucking through pumping and pumping more and more debt into the system, taking the produce of labor in exchange for the cost of running a printing press. Not too worry, if more slaves are needed the legislative branch is prepared to adjust the immigration quotas. And should displaced workers rebel and refuse to work for lower wages there are reserved for them the choice of three Feed sponsored "P"s - poverty, prostitution, and prison - all of which are designed to "help" the economy in some "positive" way through legislative processes.

Up until 2003 $11,248.25 of debt was added to the monetary base for every new citizen. The increase in the money supply ensured that there was no deflation. As long as each person was capable of servicing his or her share of the debt things went along fine for the Feed. But now, all of the sudden, the Feed is facing a deflation problem anyway. This is because the population is at the point where it cannot produce enough to offset the effects of inflation. It simply cannot increase its rate of production and consumption any further. This is the basic fly in the ointment of fiat money - it assumes that there is no limit to what can be extracted from a society. But the debt has to be serviced regardless. For a while the inflation was exported abroad. But foreigners have developed indigestion and can`t stomach anymore Ferns. So the Feed has taken to the dishonorable tactic of destroying existing Ferns while pumping new ones into the system (witness the recent devastation in the bond market).



The recent blowout in the bond market has caused interest rates to rise. By offering a higher interest rate the Feed is trying to temp investors into buying Fern-denominated debt and away from investing in gold. The recent strength in the currencies of gold producing countries, like South Africa for example, is an effort by the Feed to force miners to pump more gold into the markets in an effort to offset the increase in their production costs. The more gold miners produce the less central bankers are forced to sell. These are just a few thoughts. If I have made any errors in my reasoning or calculations please advise. After all, you can`t get a lot of brains into a small cranium like mine.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

August 4 - Gold $348.90 up $2.70 - Silver $5.01 down 6 cents

Gold Rebounds From Cartel Shellacking

"The secret of making something work in your lives is, first… --Eileen Caddy

Gold was very firm right off the bat in Asia last night, rising $3 in the early going. The prerequisite take-down followed in New York after the Comex opening with gold retreating to the unchanged mark. But an early weak stock market and increasingly growing concerns over the bond market debacle brought in buyers.

Gold rallied but fell back after trading $350. The rest of t…

Amazing! The Café Sentiment Indicator strikes again. This weekend was the slowest weekend of the year. The swift drop in gold in only four days completely wiped out building interest in gold, which is always a major objective of The Gold Cartel. Business was non-existent and new trial memberships dropped 90% from the previous weekend. The previous Sunday, 57 new people signed up for a free-two week trial. Saturday only 2 signed up. It was the fastest drop in the Indicator in five years. Normally, it is much more gradual.

The orchestrated sell-off on Friday left an outside key reversal week to the downside for gold. Technically, it is very bearish. However, as said so often in MIDAS, major technical events, both bullish and bearish, are not very significant because of the rigging.

Weekly gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YG/W

For what it’s worth, the big picture gold pattern is building a wedge formation, which should conclude with an upside break out.

Commentary over Friday’s gold volume produced the largest discrepancy I have ever seen. Estimated volume was over 130,000 contracts. It was so chaotic that bullion dealers and floor clerks needed to work hours of overtime to reconcile trades and deal with the business. Yet, the announced official volume was only 64,444 and 56,000 of that was before the late $5+ break in the last half-hour. It makes no sense. What I did learn today that made sense was GOLDMAN SACHS was the one who broke gold down on Friday.

The dollar fell .51 to 96.36 and is rolling over again, while the euro gained a hefty .96 gain to 113.44. Thus, the euro has gained almost 1 ½ points the last two trading sessions and gold has fallen $5.50.

The dollar put in a double top, stopping right below 98 twice:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/93

Silver was pummeled all the way down to $4.93 before recover…

My thinking there is a paradigm shift regarding gold as an investment among many major players around the world looks more credible by the day. That’s what the gold share action seems to be telling us. They were breaking out on Friday before gold was trashed. After a lower opening today, they surged right back up again. The same reasoning holds. Bond investments in the US have become very risky, US short-term money market rates are close to zero and our stock P/E’s are extraordinarily high. The go to investment is GOLD. The big money crowd isn’t paying attention too much to what The Gold Cartel does to gold in the near-term. They can see what’s coming down the road and they want in.

There is more and more talk the 20-year bond market rally is over. As that sort of talk persists, it leads investors to take a serious look at gold whose 23-year bear market slump is also over.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, August 04, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.70, PM $6.24, with world gold at $348 and $349.10. Very ample for legal imports. Indian and Middle Eastern bullion importers were reportedly very active on Friday, especially on the closing break. The somewhat suspect Shanghai Gold Exchange is also reporting a premium ($1.68 on 99.99 gold) having been at a $2 discount early last week.

Volume this morning on TOCOM surged 159% from Friday to the equivalent of 68,341 Comex lots as Japanese Trade Houses took advantage of cheaper offshore gold to hammer the futures market in arbitrage trade. Some longs were apparently stopped out too, as open interest fell the equivalent of 2,999 Comex to 132,352 Comex. The active contract was down 23 yen, but $US gold showed some resilience, testing $350 before going out at $349.10, $1.50 above the NY close. (NY on Friday traded an estimated 135,000 contracts, with almost no switches.)

Friday’s NY trading in gold deserves to be remembered as amongst the most extraordinary in many years. After a rally attempt was defeated gold moved down to the week’s low around $351 by 1PM:

"Volumes for the session were heavy at an estimated 56,000 l…

Volume then exploded, leaping 134%, or an estimated 75,000 contracts, forcing gold below $346 at one point as stops were obviously triggered and short term trading models activated. Strange behavior for a Summer Friday.

Clearly, consideration has to be given to what sort of seller engineers a rout like this, which has, not unreasonably, terrified the bullion bank commentators and most technical analysts. Some talk of "Market at Close" exit tactics by discouraged longs, but open interest fell 19,000 contracts over the previous two days and was probably down a good bit more by 1PM on Friday, indicating getting out was not difficult, and Friday was after all not the month end. Others speak of stops being run in, implicitly by predator funds, but is a two-week low before a weekend an obvious time to establish a huge short?

The answer probably lies outside the gold market. Bridgewater Associates, in a Daily Observations outspoken even by their standards says this morning:

"On Wednesday, Fannie Mae Chairman Franklin Raines described…

BW continues:

…there is no doubt we are in a bond tsunami, and it appears …

More on perspective this at:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BADC30E6F%2…

Other observers talk darkly of this week’s Treasury Auction.

References to the LTCM smash will stir painful memories for scarred veterans of the gold market: after a brief false start, gold fell comatose, and the gold lease rates were notably the only tranquil short term credit price. No reason for this odd behaviour was ever forthcoming – only suspected. However, back then Wall Street Triumphalism was still building, and the world was a different place.

A similar maneuver this time will be more difficult.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

War über`s Wochenende, inkl. Montag, in der Verkehrschaos Metropole Bangkok, beim Silber einkaufen. Die Geschäfte der Engros Silber Händler boomen richtig gehend, wurde mir von verschiedenster Seite bestätigt, und konnte ich auch mit eigenen Augen erleben. Es ist ein neue starke Nachfrage weltweit nach in Thailand verarbeitetem 925er Silber Schmuck, und Utensielien entstanden, das besser verarbeitet sein soll als zum Beispiel das chinesische Silber.

An der Charoengung Strasse in Bangkok, die liegt ganz in der Nähe des weltbekannten Oriental Hotels, haben in den letzten 12 monaten mindestens 30 neue Silber Grosshandels Geschäfte ihre Engrosgeschäfte eröffnet. Viele davon sind auch schon im Internet vertreten. Die Preise für gut verarbeiteten 925 Silber Schmuck, wie Halsketten, Armbänder, Ringe, etc. liegt etwa bei ca. 10 bis 13 THB pro Gramm Gewicht, je nach Verarbeitungsart, was einem Aufpreis auf den Silberpreis von ca. 35% bis 70% gleichkommt. Die Vielfalt der Auswahl ist bemerkenswert.
Bei grossen Bestellungen, und etwas Verhandlungsgeschick, lassen sich als Silber Bug noch richtige Schnäppchen machen, vor allem dann, falls es sich um Silber Schmuck handelt den der Verkäufer als schwer verkäuflich ansieht, und praktisch zum reinen Silberwert zu verkaufen gewillt ist.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Lange bleibt er nicht mehr da unten!

[ThaiGuru]

Dem Dollar Preis Verlauf nach zu urteilen, hätte der Gold Preis am letzten Freitag, und auch gestern am Montag viel stärker ansteigen müssen, als es von interressierter Stelle "zugelassen wurde"!

Dollar:



Gold:



Silber

[Wavetrader]

Gold nun wie erwartet nach Test der GD200 mit Konsolidierung an GD100. Darunter darf es nicht fallen, sonst... Ansonsten steht einem Durchstoß der GD200 in naher Zukunft nichts im Wege, eine weitere Seitwärtsbewegung ist m.E. unwahrscheinlich, Silber hat es ja positiv vorgemacht.

[Wavetrader]

Die Dresdner hat offenbar den Direktzugriff abgeschaltet, hier der Link zu den Kurslisten in Euro. https://www.dresdner-privat.de/index.html?nav=38&con=/servle…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY CCNMatthews



GLAMIS GOLD LTD.

TSX, NYSE SYMBOL: GLG

AUGUST 5, 2003 - 08:30 ET

Glamis Gold Reports Second Quarter Results And Updates

Development Projects

RENO, NEVADA--

All amounts in United States Dollars

Glamis Gold Ltd. (NYSE: GLG; TSX: GLG) today reported net income
of $3.9 million or $0.03 per share for the second quarter of 2003
compared to net income of $3.4 million or $0.04 per share for the
second quarter of 2002. Results for the second quarter 2003
include expensed exploration of $1.4 million in Guatemala or
($0.01) per share compared to an exploration expense of $0.3
million in the second quarter of the previous year. Exploration
expenditures at the Marlin project in Guatemala are now being
capitalized as development costs.

Second Quarter Highlights:

- Produced 60,583 ounces of a gold at a total cash cost of $…

Kevin McArthur, President and Chief Executive Officer of the
Company said: "Glamis has already achieved a number of important
milestones in 2003. We have permitted the El Sauzal project in
Mexico and construction is now underway. In May, we completed a
feasibility study at our Marlin property in Guatemala which is
quickly developing into our largest and potentially our most
profitable gold asset. Most recently, after nearing completion of
a major expansion at Marigold, Glamis has made what could be an
important new discovery in the Section 7 area. With all of these
positive developments, we are moving rapidly toward our near-term
objective of doubling gold production to 500,000 ounces annually
at a total cash cost of less than $150 per ounce."

Financial Results

Revenue from gold sales in the second quarter of 2003 was $21.7
million compared to $20.3 million in the second quarter of last
year. Glamis sold 61,575 ounces of gold in the latest quarter at
an average realized price of $353 per ounce compared to the sale
of 64,879 ounces in the corresponding period of 2002 at an
average realized price of $313 per ounce. The decline in gold
sales in the latest quarter was principally the result of lower
gold production at the Rand mine where leaching operations
continued but active mining ceased as planned in the first
quarter of 2003.

Net income for the second quarter of 2003 was $3.9 million or
$0.03 per share compared to $3.4 million or $0.04 per share in
the second quarter of the prior year. The increase in net income
was due primarily to higher gold prices which offset lower gold
sales and higher exploration expenses of $1.8 million in the
current quarter compared to $0.3 million in the previous year.
Depreciation and depletion expenses also rose in the most recent
quarter due to higher gold production at Marigold mine.

For the first six months of 2003, Glamis reported net income of
$5.8 million or $0.05 per share compared to net income of $6.6
million or $0.08 per share for the first half of 2002. For the
latest six month period, Glamis sold 121,045 ounces of gold at an
average realized price of $351 per ounce compared to sales in the
first half of 2002 of 126,913 ounces of gold at an average price
of $304 per ounce.

Cash flow generated from operations remained very strong in the
latest quarter, rising to $9.1 million compared to $8.9 million
in the second quarter of 2002. As of June 30, 2003 the Company
reported cash and equivalents of $149.8 million and working
capital of $163.1 million.

Operations Review

Gold production for the second quarter of 2003 was 60,583 ounces
compared to 63,929 ounces in the second quarter of 2002. Total
cash costs for the latest three month period were $172 per ounce
compared to $156 per ounce in the second quarter of the prior
year.

weiter....

http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2003/08/05/rtr1048460…

AngloGold likely to reduce Ashanti gold hedges fast

Reuters, 08.05.03, 12:50 AM ET

By James Regan

KALGOORLIE, Australia, Aug 5 (Reuters) - South Africa`s AngloGold Ltd said on Tuesday it was likely to act fast to reduce Ashanti Goldfields Ltd`s gold hedge book if it succeeded in buying the Ghanian mining house.

Ashanti`s hedge book brought the company to the financial brink in 1999 when bullion prices unexpectedly leapt, leaving it committed to buying high and selling low through a complex options structure.

Ashanti has since simplified its hedging, with some 6.4 million committed ounces, but still shows an unrealised loss of $108 million.

"We would be likely to move quickly to reduce their hedge bo… an AngloGold spokeswoman told Reuters.

AngloGold earlier said Ashanti`s top shareholder agreed to support its $1.1 billion acquisition of the African mining company, though the transaction`s fate still rests with the government of Ghana.

The merger, formally unveiled on Monday in New York after being publicly proposed in May, would, if approved, bring AngloGold neck-and-neck with rival Newmont Mining Corp. as the world`s top gold producer. It would also bolster the company`s long-term reserves by more than 30 percent.

Once one of the world`s most-hedged gold miners, AngloGold has been reducing its own hedge book in order to gain more exposure to the market price of gold, which has climbed 10 percent in the last 12 months.

Hedging involves selling yet-to-be-mined nuggets at a preset price. The tactic protects miners when prices fall, but can backfire, as was the case with Ashanti, when gold goes up.

UNWINDING POSITIONS

AngloGold removed about 800,000 ounces of gold from its hedge book in the last quarter, leaving it with 8.3 million ounces pre-sold and it was continuing to unwind its positions, the spokeswoman said.

AngloGold`s board recently reduced the maximum level of hedging the company may hold to 30 percent of the next five year`s production from 50 percent previously.

Lonmin Plc, a 27.6 percent stakeholder in Ashanti, pledged to vote in favour of the transaction, which would pay Ashanti shareholders 0.26 of a AngloGold share for each share they own.

Ashanti`s board has also approved the deal, but the companies now must await a ruling from the Ghana government, which owns a 17 percent stake in Ashanti as well as a golden share giving it the ability to veto a takeover of the company.

Combined, AngloGold and Ashanti produce about 7.3 million ounces of gold annually -- a level matched only by Newmont.

AngloGold shareholders would own 87 percent of the combined …

Copyright 2003, Reuters News Service

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.mg.co.za/Content/l3.asp?ao=18329

BUSINESS

Harmony says it`s world`s largest gold resource group

Johannesburg

05 August 2003 14:37

South African gold miner Harmony on Tuesday announced the annual re-statement of its ore reserves to about 410-million ounces, which makes the company the world`s largest gold resource group.

Earlier, AngloGold said that its proposed merger with Ghana`s Ashanti Goldfields would create the world`s largest reserve base gold company.

The AngloGold Ashanti entity would have total gold reserves of about 93,2-million ounces of proven and probable reserves compared with Harmony/ARMgold`s 61,9-million ounces.

"Excluding the ore reserves from ARMgold, Harmony will have … said Harmony chief executive Bernard Swanepoel.

Using a gold price of R93 000 per kilogram, the merged company will have grown its reserve base by 26% from 49-million ounces in June 2002, to 62-million ounces at a 3% higher underground grade of 6,24 grams per ton.

The company has, in the light of the current strength of the Australian dollar and the closure of the inherited hedge positions at these operations, restated its Australian reserve base.

Although Harmony`s resource base in Australia remains at 11-million ounces, reserves have decreased from 2,3-million ounces in 2002 to 1,5-million ounces.

This will result in the company taking a net non-cash impairment charge of R598-million during its current financial year.

"Due to limited exploration expenditure in the industry, res… said Swanepoel. - I-Net Bridge

[ThaiGuru]

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200308/05/eng20030805_1217…

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, August 05, 2003

Chinese Venture to Exploit, Process Gold in Vietnam

A Vietnam-China joint venture has been approved to exploit and process gold in Vietnam`s northern Bac Can province, the latest issue of Vietnam Investment Review reported Tuesday.

The Chinese partner, Kim Binh Zinc Company, contributes 85 percent of capital to the 700,000-US dollar venture, while local Bac Can Mineral Company makes up the remainder.

The venture will start exploiting gold in the Tan An mine this month, and process its first products in the next few months, saidDirector of Bac Can Mineral Company Mai Van Ban.

All processed gold will target the domestic market, and the venture is valid until 2008, he added.

The venture is the fourth foreign-invested project in Bac Can. The three others, all Chinese-backed ones, have combined capital of 3 million US dollars and involve in exploiting and processing zinc and lead.

Vietnam plans to produce some 2.5 tons of gold and import 50…

[ThaiGuru]

[ThaiGuru]

SPOT MARKET IS CLOSED
opens in 1 hr. 38 mins.
Aug 05, 2003 13:30 NY Time
Bid/Ask 349.50 - 350.00
Change +0.60 +0.17%
Low/High 347.50 - 351.60

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030805/55488_1.html

Financial News

Press Release Source: Atlas Mining Company


Atlas Mining Continues Discussions to Operate Costa Rican Gold Mine

Tuesday August 5, 10:18 am ET

OSBURN, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 5, 2003--Atlas Mining Company (OTCBB:ALMI - News) is pleased to announce that it is continuing its discussions with Cia Minera Mimosa S.A. de C.V. of Costa Rica (CMM) to provide assistance with the planning, development and operation of their La Union Gold Mine in Costa Rica.
Atlas and CMM have agreed to extend the terms of the previously announced letter of intent to allow both companies to continue their due diligence.

Under the revised terms, Atlas will perform a thorough on-site assessment of the La Union Mine by the end of the quarter. If the evaluation proves satisfactory, then Atlas and CMM will finalize terms regarding project operation and a possible joint-venture partnership. Since the initial announcement of negotiations in May, CMM has completed a modest initial financing and will pursue full production financing after the completion of a definitive agreement with Atlas.

Historical data indicates past production of nearly 500,000 ounces of gold at La Union from operations through the 1950s. Geological reports indicate strong exploration potential on the property, along with between 35,000 and 85,000 ounces of identified, recoverable gold.

CMM President-elect, John Nakao stated,

"We have a valuable asset in the La Union Gold Mine and we i…

Please visit the Atlas website at http://www.atlasmining.com for more information about the projects and activities of Atlas Mining Company.

Atlas Mining Company is a diversified natural resources company with its primary focus on the development of the Dragon Mine in Juab County, Utah, the only known commercial source of halloysite clay outside of New Zealand. The purity and quality of halloysite from the Dragon Mine is unmatched anywhere in the world and has spawned considerable research into new applications for this unique product. Atlas also holds mining and timber interests in northern Idaho, and operates an underground mining contracting business. Atlas stock trades on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol "ALMI".

Safe Harbor Statement -- As a cautionary note to investors, certain matters discussed in this press release may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such matters involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially, including the following: changes in economic conditions; general competitive factors; the Company`s ability to execute its business model and strategic plans; and the risks described from time to time in the Company`s SEC filings.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Atlas Mining Company
Market Advantages, 480-664-3773
www.atlasmining.com

[ThaiGuru]

Dow und Nasdaq brechen ein, Gold geht hoch, die Anleger fliehen aus den USA Bonds, Oel und Gas steigen munter weiter, als ob gerade wieder ein neuer Krieg im Anzug wäre, und der Dollar schmiert wieder ab!

Dow



Nasdaq



US Staatsanleihen



Oel



Gold




Dollar

[Schndluder]

Nicht auszudenken, was passiert, wenn wieder irgendwo ein Anschlag erfolgt

Die Indizes werden einbrechen :eel:

[Schndluder]

#6723

...als ob gerade wieder ein neuer Krieg im Anzug wäre

Der Krieg gegen den Iran ist schon längst beschlossene Sache

Sonst gewinnt Bush die Wahlen nicht

[ThaiGuru]

August 5 - Gold $349.60 up 60 cents - Silver $5.92 down 9 cents

Bonds Continue Their Collapse/Gold Could Explode At Any Time

"The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision o… -- Thucydides

When a market is traumatized like gold was last Friday, it rarely recovers right away. Too much damage is done to the psyche of the longs for them to aggressively bid the price up too quickly. Today’s trading session was the quietest in many weeks with gold trading either side of unchanged for most of the time.

The open interest continues to drop in swift fashion, falling another 6790 contracts to 202,427. I don’t see it falling back to 175,000 like it did the last time the open interest rose to the 240,000 level. Mainly because some of these longs are probably in stronger hands than at the beginning of this year and new longs are likely to show up on this recent dip.

Two markets standout as positives for gold:

*One is oil. It keeps chugging along into new high ground. W…

Refco put out a gold buy recommendation after the close.

Silver was bashed once more. Floor sources feel it could drop down to $4.80 before turning higher again. Most likely a good number of specs bailed today. The open interest is still a hefty 110,922. If the silver manipulator crowd really is losing control as I suspect, this market should turn around very quickly and head for $5.20.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, August 05, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums; AM $6.45, PM $6.85, with world gold at $349.50 and $349. High; ample for legal imports. Reuters carries a story reporting a quadrupling of imports into Bombay over the past week, which it attributes to the upcoming festival season, but which probably has more to do with the recent price decline.

TOCOM remains noncommittal: volume fell by 55% to the equivalent of 30,538 Comex lots, the active contract edged up 6 yen and world gold went out 85c above the NY close. (NY yesterday traded 44,894 lots, with open interest falling 6,790 contracts. Open interest has dropped over 35,000 contracts in the past four trading days, a dramatic contraction.)

A story in the FT reports on a remarkable acceleration of foreign bond purchases by the Japanese public. Maybe this new willingness to diversify away from yen assets accounts for the increase in gold coin purchasing mentioned by the Nikkei News Service last week.

Most observers still seem stunned by Friday’s wild action, a…

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

Black Blade (08/05/03; 22:54:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 106774)

Market Wrap Up – Hartman

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

It comes as no surprise to me that stocks are taking a hit just when the economy is supposedly improving. It’s easy for the Wall Street Spinsters to say that bond prices are getting killed because the economy is improving, but where is the follow-through from stocks? When the government needs to borrow $60 billion in one week, everything else must be pushed to the back burner until the debt is sold. Last Friday I stated that the markets were being conditioned to buy Treasury paper.

Bonds were already oversold (we thought) to make the yields more attractive for this weeks’ auction, and stocks have gotten ahead of themselves, so money could easily come out of stocks to buy the Treasury paper. The coverage on the sale of the 3-year notes was thin today. We will just have to watch and see how things go tomorrow and Thursday as they auction the rest of the debt paper.
I have increased my short positions for the overall stock market and am patiently waiting to find the near-term bottom for bonds to play the bounce.

Precious metals are in a holding pattern until the debt is sold. In fact, gold investors were put on notice last Friday in the late-day take-down right before the close. Silver investors got a hand slap today with silver losing ground, but the stocks held up well.

I read the metal bashing as someone saying,

"Don`t even think of buying gold and silver until all the de…

Everyone will know the precious metals bull market is real when the price of the metals goes up in all currencies. With the current stresses on the global monetary system, precious metals are a very nice way to feel some security in the preservation of wealth.


Black Blade: Yes indeed. I had mentioned last week that I thought that the over supply of government debt (with much more to come) would be difficult to sell without foreign buyers. This is just the first wave of auctions too. With so much debt to sell will their be enough buyers without the Federal Reserve having to resort to “nonconventional means” such as buying the debt themselves? Maybe the “nonconventional means” talk was to prepare the investment community for that very possibility. Who knows? What is certain is that the US dollar must weaken against other currencies or else the notion of “economic recovery” will be shelved.

Export driven economies like Japan and China will step up to the plate to buy a good amount of this debt in the continuing “competitive currency devaluation” scheme (aka “Currency War”). Japan is especially vulnerable as they are without natural resources and must buy material abroad to assemble into trinkets for sale in increasingly competitive markets as the shrinking economic pie gets smaller so to speak.

Meanwhile precious metals are selling at a bargain as the do…

[ThaiGuru]

Die USA haben anscheinend langsam immer mehr Mühe ihr "Papier" unter die Leute zu bringen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

U.S. Treasury Notes Fall in Asia on Investor Concern of Increasing Supply

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. five- and 10-year Treasuries dropped in Asian and European trading before the government`s $18 billion sales of those maturities, after a three-year debt auction yesterday showed declining demand.

The Treasury Department yesterday started this week`s sales of a record $60 billion of new notes, pushing down Treasuries. The $24 billion of 2006 notes drew bids for 1.32 times the amount of debt offered, the lowest for a three-year note since at least 1983, according to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

The five- and 10-year note auctions today and tomorrow ``wil…

The 2 5/8 percent note maturing in May 2008 declined 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 7/32 at 3 p.m. in Tokyo. The yield rose 2 basis points to 3.25 percent from late New York yesterday. Yields on 3 5/8 percent notes due in May 2013 added 2 basis points to 4.41 percent, after earlier falling as low as 4.36 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The U.S. government may struggle to sell the notes after a r…

The 10-year note in July had the worst month since 1984 after reports pointed to faster economic growth. The note auction yesterday came as a report showed the broadest expansion in six years in U.S. service industries, the largest part of the world`s biggest economy.

weiter....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yh…



Heads-up on Bema

Six weeks ago, when the shares were below $1.25, we gave you the heads-up on Bema Gold (BGO: news, chart, profile), the scrappy miner that has an interest in the high-grade Kupol gold and silver property in Chukotka, Russia. Now, Bema`s shares are pressing $1.80, and one banker tells me they`re headed far higher. See: The June heads-up on Bema. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4B17C841%2…

More test results and assays on the Russia project are due o…



At a recent trip to the mine, several analysts were impresse…

Canada-based Bema, which already produces from the far eastern regions of Russia, has shares that trade on the American Stock Exchange and in Toronto. The company has drilled about 100 holes at Kupol, so a stream of test results is headed investors` way. If one large shareholder is correct,

"the grades could blow everyone away, and this one goes much…



For the latest on Bema and the continuing natural-resource story in other hard assets, including the latest breaking news from a looming sensation in the world of natural gas, Canada`s Ivanhoe Energy, see The Calandra Report. Subscription service The Calandra Report is available here: The Calandra Report. http://cbs.marketwatch.com/commerce/theCalandraReport.asp?si…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanzen.net/news/news_detail.asp?NewsNr=129829

Gold- und Ölpreis steigt an

06.08.2003

Der Goldpreis ist in der vergangenen Nacht gestiegen. Auch der Preis für Öl der Sorte Light Crude und für die führende Nordseesorte Brent Crude erhöhte sich.
Ursache für den Ölpreisanstieg war ein Autobombenanschlag vor einem Luxushotel im Zentrum von Jakarta in Indonesien. Der Anschlag, bei dem mindestens 14 Menschen getötet und weitere 150 verletzt wurden, löste an den Märkten neue Terrorängste aus. Derzeit ist die Ölversorgung anfällig wie selten zuvor. Das vierte Quartal mit seinem typischen Nachfrageanstieg ist nicht mehr fern. Die Vorräte stehen weiterhin nahe dem historischen Tief vom März 2003.

Die Organisation Erdöl exportierender Länder (OPEC) beschloss am 31. Juli, ihre Förderquoten unverändert zu lassen. Von den Märkten wurde diese Entscheidung angesichts der hohen Ölpreise und der nur schleppend anlaufenden irakischen Ölexporte erwartet. Der Ölpreise bewegte sich in den vorangegangenen Tagen nahe der Obergrenze des OPEC-Zielbandes von 22 bis 28 Dollar pro Barrel (knapp 159 Liter). Am 24. September findet das nächste Treffen der Ölminister statt, um über die Entwicklung im Irak und die künftige Förderpolitik zu beraten. Analysten rechnen bis Jahresende mit einer Beibehaltung der aktuellen Förderquote, da sie keine schnellen Fortschritte der irakischen Ölindustrie erwarten. Der Wiederaufbau wird durch Sabotage und Plünderungen behindert.

Die Ölminister der OPEC-Staaten berieten bereits am 11. Juni in Doha, der Hauptstadt des Golfemirates Katar, über ihre weitere Preis- und Mengenstrategie und kamen zu dem Entschluss, die Fördermenge unverändert bei 25,4 Millionen Barrel täglich zu belassen. Zwar liegt die offiziellen Förderquote der zehn eingebundenen OPEC-Staaten bei insgesamt 25,4 Millionen Barrel, jedoch liegt die tatsächliche Produktionsmenge vermutlich um 1,1 Millionen Barrel Rohöl über diesem Zielwert.

In den letzten Monaten hatte der Ölpreis aufgrund des Hurrikan „Claudette“, der die Förderung im Golf von Mexiko beeinträchtigte sowie eines unerwartet starken Rückgangs der US-Rohölvorräte, der Sabotageakte auf die Irakische Ölindustrie und der Sorge vor einer Fördermengenkürzung der OPEC deutlich zugelegt. Die USA leiden weiterhin an zu geringen Ölvorräten. Der weltgrößten Volkswirtschaft steht eine saisonal äußert dürftige Raffineriekapazität zur Verfügung, was teilweise auf den Sturm Claudette zurückzuführen ist.

Der UNO-Sicherheitsrat nahm einen Resolutionsentwurf der USA, Großbritanniens und Spaniens an. Dieser Entwurf hebt die UNO-Sanktionen gegen den Irak auf und erkennt die USA und Großbritannien, die zudem die Kontrolle über die Ölindustrie des Landes erhalten, als Besatzungsmächte an. Damit kann bald wieder Öl aus dem Irak exportiert werden, was den Preis reduzieren könnte. Weiterhin beschloss der UN-Sicherheitsrat, dass der Entschädigungsfonds für die Opfer des irakischen Angriffs auf Kuwait 1990 künftig fünf Prozent aus den Einnahmen durch die irakischen Ölverkäufe erhalten soll.

Nach Einschätzung des US-Chefberaters im irakischen Ölministerium sind die Öl-Verträge des gestürzten Regimes mit Unternehmen in Russland, Frankreich und China ungültig. Am 22. Juni exportierte der Irak erstmals seit Mitte März wieder Erdöl ins Ausland. Der britische Ölkonzern BP und der britisch-niederländische Konzern Royal Dutch/Shell schlossen die ersten langfristigen Verträge über irakische Öl-Lieferungen seit dem Kriegsende ab. Beide Unternehmen erhalten demnach je 10 Mio. Barrel Rohöl von der staatlichen Öl-Vertriebsgesellschaft SOMO.

Die private Organisation Judicial Watch in Washington veröff…

Bis Ende des Jahres will der Irak die Ölproduktion auf das Vorkriegsniveau von rund 2,4 Millionen Barrel pro Tag steigern, nachdem der Export mit Kriegsbeginn abbrach. Derzeit produziert das Land mit den weltweit zweitgrößten Ölvorkommen nur 500.000 Barrel pro Tag für den Export, nach ursprünglichen Planungen sollten es bereits 1,5 Mio. Barrel sein. Nach Meinung von Experten kann dieses Ziel erst zum Jahresende erreicht werden und die Vorkriegsmenge erst Ende 2004. Inklusive des Eigenbedarfs fördert der Irak derzeit täglich mehr als eine Millionen Barrel Öl.

Inzwischen trat in Bagdad erstmals der neue Stadtrat zusammen. Die 37 irakischen Mitglieder sollen die US-Verwaltung in den Bereichen kommunale Dienstleistungen und öffentliche Sicherheit beraten. Infolge der vielen Überfälle auf US-Soldaten, rechnen die US-Streitkräfte mit einem dauerhaften Aufenthalt und verzichten auf den für Herbst geplanten Abzug tausender Soldaten.

Zur Stabilisierung der Lage im Irak wünschen sich die USA zudem die Unterstützung von möglichst vielen Staaten. Das US-Außenministerium verhandelt bereits mit einer Vielzahl von Staaten und Militärorganisationen, darunter auch die NATO, über die Entsendung von Truppen. Die Länder Indien, Frankreich und Deutschland haben diese Bitte bereits abgelehnt.

Nach neuesten Schätzungen wird der Wiederaufbau der irakischen Öl- und Gasindustrie rund 1,0 Mrd. Euro kosten. Insbesondere der Wiederaufbau der Förderanlagen auf den großen Ölfeldern im Norden und Süden des Landes wird sehr kostspielig. Analysten sorgen sich vor weiteren Sabotageakten, die zum einen die Kosten in die Höhe treiben und zum zweiten irakische Ölexporte einschränken.

In den letzten Wochen wurden viele Ungereimtheiten aus dem Irak gemeldete. Deshalb lassen sich inzwischen weder Händler noch OPEC-Mitglieder davon nennenswert beeinflussen, so dass Meldungen aus dem Irak nur kurzfristig Einfluss auf den Ölpreis haben. Dennoch ist die Entwicklung im Irak ein Unsicherheitsfaktor.

Analysten konzentrieren sich jedoch wieder verstärkt auf die Fundamentaldaten und die Unternehmenszahlen. Der ISM-Service-Index stieg im Juli unerwartet auf 65,1 Zähler, das ist der höchste Wert seit Beginn der Erhebung im Juli 1997. Volkswirte hatten hingegen eine Abnahme auf 58,0 Punkte erwartet. Der Indexstand des Vormonats wurde mit 60,6 Punkten bestätigt.

Die Konjunkturdaten der vergangenen Monate zeigten ein gemischtes Bild, jedoch wollen Analysten nun mehr nach vorne schauen und hoffen auf eine wirtschaftliche Wende in der zweiten Jahreshälfte. Grund zum Optimismus sehen sie in den neuen Steuersenkungen und im niedrigen Zinsniveau.

Der Kurs des Euro sank von 1,1389 Dollar am Vortag auf nun 1,1414 Dollar. Ende Mai erreichte der Euro einen Rekordstand von über 1,19 Dollar und überschritt damit seinen Kurs bei der Einführung der Gemeinschaftswährung am 04. Januar 1999 von 1,1886 Dollar. Ein starker Euro verbilligt das in Dollar gehandelte Gold für Investoren, die in Euro rechnen.

Aufgrund der Eindämmung der lebensgefährlichen Lungenkrankheit SARS schwinden die Sorgen der Anleger hinsichtlich der wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Krankheit. Die Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) strich Taiwan von der Liste der SARS-Gebiete, da 20 Tage lang keine Neuinfektionen aufgetreten sind. SARS hatte schlimme Folgen für die asiatische Wirtschaft. Das australische Finanzministerium erwartet, dass SARS das Wirtschaftswachstum in Ostasien um etwa einen Prozentpunkt dämpft.

Feinunze Gold: 351,20 Dollar (+0,40 Dollar)

Feinunze Silbe…

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten/artikel-2336325.…

Datum 06.08. / 18:36

Weberbank empfiehlt Goldfonds

Die Experten der Weberbank empfehlen derzeit eine Investition in den Goldfonds Merrill Lynch IIF World Gold Fund (WKN 974 119). Nach Einschätzung der Anlagestrategen eröffnet sich der Investor mit einer Anlage in den Goldfonds Zugang zu einer Assetklasse, die vor dem Hintergrund fundamentaler Überlegungen mehr Gewicht gewinnt.

Gold wird wegen seiner negativen Korrelation zum USD von ein…

Dieser Überhang sei in der Vergangenheit durch Verkäufe internationaler Notenbanken kompensiert worden, hieß es. Zukünftig werden Notenbanken per Saldo jedoch als Nettokäufer auftreten, so die Einschätzung der Weberbank.

Volkswirtschaften wie China und Rußland kaufen Gold zur Sich…

Quelle: www.Fonds-Reporter.de

© BörseGo

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030806/markets_precious_comex_2.html

Reuters

COMEX gold regains confidence despite soft euro

Wednesday August 6, 2:43 pm ET

NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - COMEX gold ended higher Wednesday, loosening its bond with a sluggish euro as underlying physical demand restored nerve to the futures market after last week`s shakeout.
Prices gyrated to an early rise and fall in the euro before gold found its footing, with dealers taking extra comfort from renewed bullishness in gold equities.

"It looks like the gold and silver stock indices, the hedged…
said a floor broker.

"After Friday`s fall last week there is still a lot of anxie… he said, adding that summer vacationing robbed the market of liquidity.

December gold (GCZ3) ended up $1.20 at $352.40 an ounce after trading between $354.60 and $350.20.

Spot gold (XAU=) was last at $351.20/1.95, up from the close at $349.70/0.20 Tuesday. London bullion dealers fixed Wednesday`s afternoon spot reference price at $352.00.

The XAU Index was up 1.09 percent at 81.79 and the HUI Gold …

"Comments by producers about continuing dehedging programs, … said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion dealing at Commerzbank.

MacDonald said gold imports to Turkey, for example, had been running very strong, underscoring ongoing dollar diversification in many parts of the world.

Day-to-day gold trading is hanging mostly on the dollar`s gyrations against the euro.

Gold, considered an alternative currency, tends to move inversely to the dollar. The euro rallied to a 1-week high at $1.1427 overnight, dragging gold up before the dollar fought back midmorning, hitting gold and leaving the euro lower on the day.

"Nobody is focusing on the fact that you`ve got over 400,000… asserted George Gero, senior vice president at Legg Mason Wood Walker.

Silver consolidated below the $5 psychological level after surging to 3-1/2 year highs 9 days ago.

September silver (0#SI rose 3.0 cents to $4.97 an ounce, retesting Tuesday`s low at $4.91 before bouncing to $4.985. It set a double top at $5.23 last Monday and Thursday.

"Historically, squeezes never lasted very long in silver," MacDonald said.

Spot silver (XAG=) was at $4.96/98, up from $4.93/95 late Tuesday. The fix was at $4.93 an ounce.

At the NYMEX, October platinum (0#PL settled $3.40 higher at $683.40 an ounce. Spot (XPT=) was last at $681.00/686.00.

September palladium (0#PA slipped 75 cents to $177.75 an ounce. Spot palladium (XPD=) wrapped up at $174.00/179.00.

[Schndluder]

Yippie... der nächste Anstieg wird gerade vorbereitet

[ThaiGuru]

@Schndluder

Sehe ich auch so!

Gute Chance um nochmals günstig Gold Aktien einzusammeln bev…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

August 6 - Gold $351 up $1.40 - Silver $4.96 up 4 cents

Gold/Silver Shareholders Bringing Home The Bacon

"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an a… –Aristotle

Gold shot out of the box last evening, rising more than $3 at one point. After coming in higher in the US, gold was taken down $1 on the day which is par for the cabal course. However, it stormed right back, going up $3 again before Gold Cartel forces drove it lower.

Early on there was concern over the US stock and bond markets as well as for the dollar which had fallen a fair amount overnight. However, the bond market soared ahead, the dollar rallied and the DOW rebounded sharply after an early sell-off, removing much of the fear trade as far as gold traders were concerned. Some other items of note:

*The open interest continues to contract, falling 1828 contr…

Nice to see both gold and silver closing modestly higher at the same time. The floor has turned more bullish on silver compared to yesterday. Had Sep silver closed over $4.98, they would have actually turned bullish. It failed to do so by a tad.

The silver open interest only fell 917 contracts on yesterda…

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Culogrande1]

Wie geht das?

Immer günstig einsammeln und nie verkaufen....habt ihr Geldscheisser

Culogrande

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Wednesday August 06, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.92, PM $6.80, with world gold at $352.50 and $351.50. Adequate, and ample, for legal imports. Thebulliondesk.com comments:

"Gold continues to find support around $348 with unusually s…

TOCOM continued quiet – volume, equal to only 29,511 Comex lots, was down 7% from Tuesday. The active contract did manage to rise 5 yen, however, so that Japan in effect endorsed gold’s move in early Asian hours. World gold went out at $353, up $3.30 on the NY close; open interest slipped by the equivalent of 64 lots. (In NY yesterday gold only traded 21,243 contracts, with open interest falling 1,828 lots. In a week Comex has shed 3.7 Mm ozs of open interest!)

Today saw an unusual event: gold rose abruptly on the Asian opening, reflecting a sudden drop in the Dollar Index. NY promptly robbed gold of this gain when Comex opened: repairing the damage to the $ Index has taken all morning. While NY is, not unnaturally, the stronghold of Wall St/ Dollar triumphalism, the rest of the world is decidedly more skeptical.

Gold shares today seem inclined to vote with the rest of the world: If the HUI index closed at the current level (above 168) it would be a new closing high. One notes Richard Russell’s PTI index gave a stock market sell signal last night: perhaps asset reallocation themes are about to benefit gold.

It has some catching up to do:

Had it matched the $US Index since the turn of the year gold…

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The tale of two markets:

The DOG (1653, down 21) was just that all day long. Bellwether Cisco ($17.65, down $1.21) led the way down after a disappointing earnings/conference call late yesterday. The DOW (9062, up 25) sold off early, rallied sharply (as is always the case after a sell-off like it had yesterday), but was slammed for 70 points off its high late, as the DOG barked its way towards its lows of the day. The DOG never did get up on the day, even when the DOW roared ahead.

Sparking the DOW advance was a strong bid for the government’s 5-year note auction. Calls must have gone out all over Wall Street to buy the auction after yesterday’s 3-year note disaster. Favors have to be owed all over the place.

Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury prices advanced in New York trading as some investors said a surge in yields since mid- June boosted the appeal of fixed-rate government debt.

Investors snapped up $18 billion of five-year notes sold by the government today, locking in the highest yields since August 2002. Demand for the securities was the strongest since August 2000, according to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, a research firm in Princeton, New Jersey……..

Investors submitted 2.48 bids for every note sold, compared with 1.81 bids at the Treasury`s last sale of five-year notes. The securities drew a 3.3 percent yield, which means that the government will have to pay more to borrow money for the next five years than it does now.

-END-

A very oversold 30-year rallied sharply, gaining over two full points.

Advisors’ Sentiment Review

August 6 2003

Bulls drop about 5% from last time as advisors start looking for the market to take a breather after big rise from the March lows.

The percentage of investment newsletter advisors who are bullish dropped to 51.5% from 56.5% last time, while the bears were up to 20.8% from 19.6% a week ago. The bears are not that far away from the 16.1% reading of June 13th, the fewest number since April 1987. Insiders continue to be the opposite of advisors as they continue to sell at a pace of over 4 shares for every share they buy with a recent reading the worst since 1986. Last week we saw another 298 buying climaxes, the third highest ever and only surpassed by the 325 of several weeks ago and the 531 from three weeks ago. Some of our indicators are now starting to turn bearish. These include the NYSE Advance Decline Line, the Dow Utility Average, the Bullish % Sum and last week, the Dow On-balance volume chart. Stocks above their own 10-week and the High Low indices have been moving down from high levels, but have not given sells as yet although they are starting to get close. Most groups are overbought and that means a lot of risk. We have been selling stocks we had bought at the July and October 2002 and the March 2003 lows and have also been making some short sales.

-END-

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Federal Reserve added $5.25 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today which hardly changed the repo pool leaving it at $20.5 Billion.

The down trend in the pool`s 30-day moving average continues dropping with the DOIW at this hour struggling to stay above red figures.

The pattern suggest a drop at the close again to begin the down slide in earnest but don`t count out another gasp above the 9,000 level.

Armed with the repo pool metric, investors have an important window into the Fed`s open market operational status and therefore have valuable insights to the Fed`s true interventional intentions. They want the DOW to fall.

Don`t fight the Fed.

When, in the future, they want the DOW to rise back they will add permanent open market operations­the high octane fuel of market "rallies". That will be the time to cover all shorts.

Mike

More from Mike:

Hi Bill:

KALGOORLIE, Australia, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Central banks worldwide sold a combined 280 tonnes of gold in the first half, the same as the first half of 2002, but still hold enough to match global demand for nearly a decade, researcher Gold Fields Mineral Services said on Tuesday.

The 15 central banks in Europe which agreed in September 1999 to limit combined sales to 400 tonnes a year, accounted for 80 percent of the sales between January and June, Gold Fields analyst Tim Spencer told Reuters.

But the sales hardly made a dent in central bank caches of the precious metal.

"The banks still hold 32,200 tonnes of gold," Spencer said.
[...]

The above quote from Mr. Tim Spenser is a false statement. It is an effort to knowingly mislead the investment public and cannot be allowed to stand unchallenged.

I have attached the graphic evidence with direct references to the BIS Triennial

http://www.bis.org/press/p020318.htm

Survey Report tables 41 and 49 that unambiguously reveal tha…





Since this information has been known for well over six months the GFMS has had ample time to correct their reports errors of central bank gold holdings. They and their manager at the World Gold Council have instead clung to erroneous data which has misled investors.

Their motives should now be clear—to hold gold down. It hasn…
Mike

Richard Russell last evening:

When people are worried they seek safety in their financial lives. The bear market in stocks has frightened most people and rendered most people poorer. More recently, the bond market has shocked many people who didn`t understand that bonds can go down. So where does one go to be safe?

The usual place is one`s own currency, in America`s case --the dollar or T-bills. The other place is your home. After all, a home is something tangible, something you can touch and feel and live in -- it`s there. And haven`t homes prices been going up ever since the early 1970s. So there is a craze on the part of Americans and people throughout the world to "buy their own home, whatever the price."

Older Americans who have "kept safe" by holding their money in T-bills or CDs find themselves confronted by a frightening situation -- to be safe means to have little or no income. These people are both confused, frightened and bewildered ("go see a movie, brother, or better still, have a drink").

Of course, there`s always the item which has meant ultimate safety since before the time of Christ. That item is the essence of intrinsic value -- gold. But gold is been banished from the system ever since 1971, when Nixon slammed the gold window down and ended anything even hinting of a gold-backed dollar.

So its been over a generation that Americans have associated gold with real money. After all, hasn`t the paper-dollar system "worked" for over 30 years without the yellow metal?

This has resulted in gold selling at almost absurd, bargain-…

A great financial specter lies ahead. It`s a sleeping monster. That specter is DEBT and DEFICITS. The specter is coming as sure as night follows day. It`s the cloud that hangs over the entire financial system. But just as we poor humans escape by going to the latest comic-book movie, the mass of investors are escaping by reading the latest newspaper headline which promises maybe better times next quarter.

-END-

More on Anglogold reducing Ashanti’s hedgebook in Mining Weekly:

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=39287

AngloGold likely to reduce Ashanti gold hedges

South Africa`s AngloGold said yesterday it was likely to act fast to reduce Ashanti Goldfields`s gold hedge book if it succeeded in buying the Ghanian mining house.

Ashanti`s hedge book brought the company to the financial brink in 1999 when bullion prices unexpectedly leapt, leaving it committed to buying high and selling low through a complex options structure.

Ashanti has since simplified its hedging, with some 6,4-million committed ounces, but still shows an unrealised loss of $108-million.

"We would be likely to move quickly to reduce their hedge bo… an AngloGold spokesperson said.

AngloGold earlier said Ashanti`s top shareholder agreed to support its $1,1-billion acquisition of the African mining company, though the transaction`s fate still rests with the government of Ghana.

The merger, formally unveiled on Monday in New York after being publicly proposed in May, would, if approved, bring AngloGold neck-and-neck with rival Newmont Mining as the world`s top gold producer.

It would also bolster the company`s long-term reserves by more than 30%.

Once one of the world`s most-hedged gold miners, AngloGold has been reducing its own hedge book in order to gain more exposure to the market price of gold, which has climbed ten per cent in the last 12 months.

Hedging involves selling yet-to-be-mined nuggets at a preset price.

The tactic protects miners when prices fall, but can backfire, as was the case with Ashanti, when gold goes up.

AngloGold removed about 800 000 oz of gold from its hedge book in the last quarter, leaving it with 8,3-million ounces pre-sold and it was continuing to unwind its positions, the spokesperson said.

AngloGold`s board recently reduced the maximum level of hedging the company may hold to 30% of the next five year`s production from 50% previously.

-END-

The more producers cut back on their hedges, the more it uses up the available supply of The Gold Cartel. It hastens their doom!

Chuck checks in late:

Bill:

Just got and checked out the sites and the charts although I kept up with things during the day. The failure of the market to hold the gains and the huge drop in the VIX forebodes something large and soon. My belief is that once the 9000 level is decisively pierced, a panic can come at any time both in stocks and in the precious metal complex.

I don`t think anyone is really prepared for this except extremists like yourself. From what I can read, everyone is in the slow grind type of mode without understanding the moment that we have come to. The action in NEM and GSS with their sharp drops and then new closing highs indicate that something very profound is here, otherwise they would be languishing at much lower levels. Take out ABX and PDG, and the XAU would be turning some heads, but the interest is still reacting to earnings from 4 months ago, as if that has any significance. The big secret that Wall Street has forgotten is that markets precede the fundamentals.

The most accurate relationship continues to be the stock market to gold shares just as it has for the past 30 years, and right now it is predicting something off the radar screen. The next few months promises to be historic.

Chuck

There is no hoopla out there in financial land about the gol…

How could the public know?It is the bullion dealers on Wall Street who are supposed to give them the straight scoop and most of them are short. What a scandal! Gold is two years into its bull market and they remain silent. Their clients are getting the shaft. Serves them right for dealing with such a bunch of louses.

The HUI made a new high close for the move and looks explosive. It finished the day at 169.53, up 4.27.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Golden Star Resources, one of the leaders in the HUI, closed in new high ground at $3.18, up 8 cents. It has taken out all technical resistance, breaking out of a weird reverse head and shoulders formation after dramatically coming back following a quick day break to $2.25.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

Bellwether Newmont charged out of its tight wedge formation to the upside and also closed in new high ground at $36.88, up $1.13.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?s…

-END-

The anti-gold company and mega-hedger, Barrick Gold, continu…

Gold is going to be the GO TO investment around the world in short order.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

@Culogrande1

Wie kann man nur so heissen?

Grosses Arschloch Nr.1

Es scheint, dass im Gegensatz zu Dir, die meisten Anleger unregelmäßige, oder regelmäßige Einnahmen verbuchen können, die ganz, oder Teilweise für Investitionen in Gold Aktien verwendet werden. Dadurch können echte Gold Bugs eben auch ohne Verkäufe auskommen, falls sie im Gegensatz zu Kurzfrist-Zockern wie Dir, eben sehr weitsichtig, und langfristig investieren.

Auf die Idee, jetzt direkt vor einem anstehenden grösseren Preisschub beim Gold, und noch mehr beim Silber, irgendwelche Aktien zum Verkauf zu empfehlen, nur weil diese Aktien jetzt mal gerade erst 50%, 100%, 200%, oder mehr Prozente gestiegen sind, kannst Du selbst ja hoffentlich nicht gekommen sein.

Dass Du selbst als Personifizierung eines schlechten Beispiels, kein Geld mehr für den Zukauf von Gold Aktien zu besitzen scheinst, ist zwar sehr betrüblich, doch bei Deiner Verschwendungssuch zu Gunsten Deiner hier im Gold Board immer, und immer wieder manisch erwähnten, und favorisierten Champagner Drossel Plutonia, auch kein Wunder.

Versuch`s doch mal mit Arbeiten, und etwas weniger sündigem …

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[goldmaki]

..still 32000 tons of gold...


selbst wenn es so wäre:

32.000 x 1000 kg * 1000 g/ 31,1g = 1.028.938.907 oz

bei einer weltbevölkerung von ? 6.000.000.000 menschen sind das pro kopf:


0,17 oz !!

oder


ca. 6 Menschen teilen sich 1 Unze!!

strong buy for gold


goldmaki

[kaepntnemo]

China`s foreign reserves skyrocket
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EH08Ad02.html
Was werden sie damit machen?
JSinclair sagte ja unlaengst nicht unzutreffend,
die US-administration spiele Russisches Roulette mit den chin. Waehrungsreserven...
Nachdem die FED/admin es vorzuziehen scheint, zugunsten einer weiteren aktienbubble alle anderen asset-klassen platzen zu lassen, bleiben bald nicht mehr viele moeglichkeiten, die angehaeuften dollareserven abzukippen.
Aber vielleicht wollen sie ja auch ihre eigene inflation noch etwas beschleunigen, um dann ihren eigenen bust mit dem der amis zu synchronisieren, um so den untergang des kapitalismus, wie wir ihn alle lieben, besonder schmerzhaft zu machen ?


-nenemo-

[konradi]

.

(nur mal so am Rande -...)

- > Culogrande und Thaiguru:

Plutonia ist in der griechischen Mythologie die Bezeichnung für den faulig riechenden Eingang in die Unterwelt, - abgeleitet aus den Beschreibungen der heißen Quellen der Stadt Hierapolis (heute Pamukkale, Türkei) durch den römische Geografen Strabo.

In der Unterwelt herrscht Hades, der "Unsichtbare". Da man sich scheute, seinen Namen zu nennen, sprach man lieber von Pluto, dem Reichen und Herrscher über die Erze und Edelmetalle. Später wurden Hades und Pluto dann in der Mythologie gleichgesetzt.

Unser Altphilologe und Frauenfreund "Dottore Lupo" geht mit seinen "abgründigen" Wortspielereien über den Odeur von "Plutonia" natürlich noch etwas tiefer, aber dazu muß man in den "Metamorphosen" Ovid´s nachlesen, bzw. sich im Liebesdrama von Orpheus und Eurydike auskennen ...

- nicht wahr culo ?


mit Gruß an die Kontrahenten -

Konradi

.

[DBrix]

Bisher habe ich mich aus diesem Thread ja herausgehalten.
Aber wenn hier jemand etwas gegen Plutonia vorbringt, dann reagiere ich allergisch!

Plutonia ist die Beste!
Wer anders denkt, der hat - mit Verlaub - von der Materie keine Ahnung.
Ich räume ein, dass man ein gewisses Lebensalter erreicht haben muss,
um Plutonia in all ihren Facetten genießen zu können...

[DBrix]

Und noch was, Du Thai-Heuler...
Culogrande1 gehört zum anerkannten Board-Adel (wenn auch nicht immer unter dem selben Nick )

Der anerkannte Boardadel (Rigel, Sovereign, btrend, xnickel etc.; diejenigen, die ich hier nicht aufzähle, mögen mir verzeihen)
zeichnet sich u.a. dadurch aus, dass er seit min. 4 Jahren hier am Board nachvollziehbar mit Ag oder Au Geld verdient.
Und zwar durch trading (auf Deutsch: Handel)

Das mögest Du Dir bitte hinter Deine Löffel schreiben und schalte endlich mal diesen stupiden Fettdruck aus!

[Nimpferd]

Wurde Culogrande1 nicht unter dem Namen dottore lupo gesperrt ?

[ThaiGuru]

@DBrix

Dass Du Dich jetzt neuerdings auch noch unter diesem User Namen selbst über allen Klee loben musst, ist ja schon mehr als bemerkenswert.

Deine Dir anscheinend selbst eingeredete Board Adel Zugehöri…

Wenn Dich mangels anderer Argumente, meine Fettschrift so stark stört, dass Du Dich hier unwohl fühlst, sei die Frage erlaubt, warum Du Dich hier eigentlich im Thread rumtreibst, anstelle Dich mit Deiner über alles geliebten Champagner Drossel Plutonia zu amüsieren.

Gold Board." target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">Wenn das schon alles war, was der Herr von Bordadel zu sagen hatte, kann ich mich ja jetzt wieder den Informationen zum Goldgeschehen widmen.

Es gibt keinen Board Adel, es gibt nur User im WGold Board.

Die einen posten schon lange, die andern weniger lange. Es gibt User die wechseln andauern ihre Identität, andere wiederum schreiben seit Anbeginn unter der selben Identität. Wieder anderen User wurde, wie ich glaube, der User Name zu Unrecht gesperrt, sodass sie gezwungen waren einen neuen User Namen zu benutzen. Einige ganz perfide User wie Du, benutzen leider nicht nur immer wieder neue User Namen, sondern auch noch mehrfach User Namen.

Doch was soll`s, Gold, und Silber wird trotzdem weiter steigen

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Gold der nächste Anlauf!

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030807/75472_1.html

Financial News

Bema Gold Corporation: 2003 Second Quarter Results

Thursday August 7, 9:05 am ET

VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 7, 2003--Bema Gold Corporation ("Bema or the "Company") is pleased to report the results from its operations for the second quarter ended June 30, 2003. All dollar figures are in United States dollars unless otherwise indicated.
Highlights:

Produced 68,197 ounces of gold
Revenue of $26.1 million
Comm…

Bema reported revenue of $26.1 million for the second quarter 2003 compared to $7.5 million for the same period last year. Cash flow from operations during the period was $208,000 compared to $294,000 for the second quarter 2002. Cash flow from operations would have been $2.2 million higher had the Company received proceeds from an end of quarter gold sale at Julietta in June instead of on July 2, 2003. The Company reported a net loss of $4.1 million ($0.013 per share) for the period mainly due to higher general and administrative expenses. In the second quarter 2002 Bema reported restated (see Note 3 to the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements) net earnings of $1.2 million ($0.005 per share) in the second quarter of 2002.

For the first six months of 2003, the Company reported a net loss of $5.3 million ($0.017 per share) on revenue of $38.1 million compared to a restated net loss of $299,000 ($0.003 per share) on revenue of $16.6 million in 2002.

Gold Production

Bema produced 68,197 ounces of gold during the quarter at an operating cash cost of $252 per ounce and a total cash cost of $267 per ounce compared to 30,394 ounces of gold at an operating cash cost of $138 per ounce and a total cash cost of $178 per ounce during the second quarter last year. Operating costs in the first six months reflect the acquisition of the Petrex Mines from February 14 onwards. Petrex completed mill modifications in July which will result in lower cash costs and increased gold production once the ramp up to full mill capacity has been achieved. (see "Petrex Mines" section).

For the first six months Bema produced 111,143 ounces of gold at an operating cash cost of $253 per ounce and a total cash cost of $272 per ounce.

Operations

The Julietta Mine, Russia

The Julietta Mine produced 29,835 ounces of gold in the second quarter at an operating cash cost of $121 per ounce and a total cash cost of $156 per ounce compared to 28,383 ounces of gold at an operating cash cost of $129 per ounce and a total cash cost of $171 per ounce during the same period last year. Revenue from Julietta was $10.9 million from the sale of 33,010 ounces of gold sold at an averaged price of $330 per ounce. This is compared to 21,838 ounces of gold sold at and average spot price of $311 in the second quarter 2002.

The Petrex Mines, South Africa

Process plant modifications continued in the second quarter at Petrex and by the end of the period the major construction projects had been completed. Management expects production levels to increase and cash cost to decrease as the benefits of the mill improvements are realized.

During the ramp up period, cash costs for the first six months of 2003 were budgeted to be significantly higher than those budgeted for the second half of 2003 and beyond. In the second quarter the Petrex Mines produced 38,362 ounces of gold at total cash cost of $354 per ounce. The main reasons for the high cash costs were the strength of the South African rand versus the U.S. dollar and the mill ramp up. The South African rand averaged 8% higher against the U.S. dollar in the second quarter of 2003 compared to the first quarter. The rand, however, increased 30% versus the budgeted rate of exchange (10 Rand to 1 USD) which has added approximately $81 per ounce to the total cash cost for the quarter. For the remainder of 2003, should the rand retain its strength, approximately 85% of the resulting higher U.S. dollar denominated cash costs will be mitigated by increased revenue realized from the rand denominated gold put options purchased. Over the next six years approximately 70% of production is protected by Rand denominated put options. (see "Gold Forward and Option Contracts" section).

Second quarter revenue from Petrex was $15.2 million from the sale of 39,880 ounces of gold sold at an average realized price of $381 per ounce compared to an average spot gold price for the period of $347 per ounce. The average realized price benefited from the exercise of rand denominated put options having a strike price of 3,000 rand per ounce.

Bema completed the acquisition of the Petrex Mines on February 14, 2003 therefore, production from the first four and one half months from the date of the acquisition is 56,445 ounces of gold at total cash costs of $366 per ounce.

The Refugio Mine, Chile (Bema 50%)

During the second quarter of 2003, the Refugio Mine in Chile recovered 2,861 ounces of gold from residual leaching versus 4,947 ounces recovered in the first quarter. The decrease in gold recovery quarter to quarter was due to the shut down of the solution processing plant as scheduled at the end of May 2003 for the Chilean winter. The Company`s share of the Refugio Mine`s production in the second quarter of 2002 was 1,911 ounces of gold produced in April and May.

All revenue from gold recovered is credited to Refugio care and maintenance costs until mining recommences which is anticipated to be sometime in 2004.

When mining was suspended at the Refugio Mine in June 2001, due to low gold prices, there were four years of reserves remaining at the Verde deposit. The Company and its joint venture partner agreed to consider recommencing production at Refugio when the gold price recovered to $325 per ounce. In October 2002, an extensive drilling program at the Refugio Mine began with the goal of increasing reserves and thereby extending the projected mine life. The drilling program has been successful, extending ore grade mineralization well below the previously projected pit bottom. Management believes that the result of this program will be to significantly increase the mine life at Refugio`s Verde deposit, thereby improving the project`s economics. Currently the joint venture partners are recalculating reserves, completing engineering studies and metallurgical test work in anticipation of recommencing production in 2004. With the inclusion of the Company`s 50% share of the Refugio Mine production, the Company`s projected annual production would increase by an additional 115,000 ounces to approximately 400,000 ounces of gold.

The Monument Bay Project, Manitoba

The winter drill program at the Monument Bay Project concluded during the second quarter of 2003. Based on this drill program and previous work, Bema has increased the inferred resource to 639,377 tonnes averaging 20.4 grams per tonne containing 418,371 ounces of gold, representing a 30% increase in contained ounces over the initial inferred resource of 500,572 tonnes grading 18.3 grams per tonne containing 294,874 ounces gold. The resource was calculated using 50 meter radius polygons on an inclined two-dimension long-section with a cut off grade of 8 grams per tonne and a minimum true width of 1 metre. High gold assays were cut to 100 g/t.

The original intention of the winter 2003 program was to focus on the Twin Lakes Zone where previous drilling had identified the bulk of the initial resource. However, favourable ice conditions this winter allowed drill rigs to access the river which has lead to the discovery of the Twin Lakes West Zone. The increase in the inferred resource at Monument Bay is mainly as a result of this new discovery. The summer 2003 program has commenced consisting of geological mapping and geochemical sampling and diamond drilling should recommence shortly. Bema has recently closed a non brokered flow through private placement for gross proceeds of CDN$ 5 million to fund the exploration program at Monument Bay.

weiter...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030807/75472_1.html

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/030807/sfth023_1.html

Financial News

Press Release Source: Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur Announces Final Redemption of Its 13 3/8% Notes

Thursday August 7, 8:31 am ET

Represents Additional $9.9 Million Reduction in Indebtedness…

COEUR D`ALENE, Idaho, Aug. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE - News), the world`s largest primary silver producer, announced today a call of the remaining outstanding $3.0 million principal amount of the Company`s 13 3/8% Senior Convertible Notes. Since the end of the second quarter, $6.9 million of the 13 3/8% Notes were voluntarily converted into common shares according to the original terms of the indenture.

Since the beginning of 1998 and after giving effect to the completion of the redemption of the remaining 13 3/8% Notes, Coeur`s total debenture indebtedness has been reduced from $288.6 million to the current level of $19.1 million. This $19.1 million of indebtedness consists of $4.9 million principal amount of 6.375% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due January 2004, $9.6 million principal amount of 7.25% Convertible Subordinated Debentures due October 2005 and $4.6 million principal amount of 9% Senior Subordinated Notes due 2007. At June 30, 2003, the Company`s cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately $20 million.

"Our cash position of nearly $20 million of cash and equivalents as of the end of June, combined with Coeur`s strengthened balance sheet, allows us to continue our growth strategy, led by our high-grade/low-cost South American mines, and the acceleration of our developmental properties, which will further ensure our position as the world`s leading primary silver producer, as well as a growing gold producer," said Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

The most recent debt reductions include the voluntary conversion by the holders of $6.9 million principal amount of 13 3/8% Notes into shares of common stock during July and the announced redemption by Coeur of the remaining $3.0 million principal amount of those Notes for $3.1 million, which includes accrued interest. Coeur has initiated the call of the remaining 13 3/8% Notes pursuant to a Notice of Redemption sent to the holders of the 13 3/8% Notes, which provides that the 13 3/8% Notes will be redeemed by Coeur on September 5, 2003 in accordance with the redemption provisions contained in the 13 3/8% Notes and the related indenture. Payment in respect of the redeemed 13 3/8% Notes will be made upon presentation and surrender of the 13 3/8% Notes to the paying agent, The Bank of New York, at the address provided in the Notice of Redemption.

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation is the world`s largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold, with anticipated 2003 production of 14.6 million ounces of silver and 112,000 ounces of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

[ThaiGuru]

Die positive Meldung von heute, über eine weitere massive Reduktion der Schulden von Coeur d`Alene *CDE* von 9.9 Millionen Dollar, seit dem Ende des 2. Quartals 03, scheint der *CDE* Aktie richtig gut zu bekommen.

Zur Zeit dieses Postings, CDE mit 4.41% im Plus!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=398…



Highland Gold`s fate in governor`s hands

By John Helmer

August 07, 2003 Posted: 16:56 Moscow time (12:56 GMT)



Highland Gold may be forced to stop gold production on Aug. 15 at its Mnogovershinnoye deposit if Khabarovsk Krai Gov. Viktor Ishayev decides to follow through on an ultimatum issued to Highland after it failed to agree on a new rental or sale price for vital mining equipment owned by the region. According to sources in the governor`s office, he will make the decision when he returns from vacation next week.

Mnogovershinnoye is one of the leading gold mines in Russia.

After the Khabarovsk regional government sent Highland a formal notice terminating the leasing agreement for equipment it values at $25 million, the August deadline was set for negotiations on renewing the agreement or concluding the sale. A Highland spokesman told The Russia Journal that the miner challenges the legality of the deadline, claiming that, unless the Khabarovsk region goes to court and obtains a stop-work order, the deadline is nothing more than a "hypothetical position" and lacks legal force. When asked if Highland has discussed the threat to production with its bankers, the spokesman said that, since the ultimatum lacks legality, there is nothing to discuss.

"I can say that the company believes that, as a result of re…he said.

weiter...

http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=398…

[ThaiGuru]

Silber der nächste Anlauf!

[ThaiGuru]

Off Topic!



Spitalreif geschüttelt

http://www.blick.ch/PB2G/PB2GA/pb2ga.htm?snr=55877

Der Mann ist mit Lufthansa geflogen!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.fondscheck.de/Analysen/default_an.asp?sub=1&paget…

07.08.2003

Goldminenfonds Depotbeimischung

FundResearch

Nach Ansicht der Experten von "FundResearch" sind Goldminenfonds gut als Depotbeimischung geeignet.

Die gute Zeit der Goldminenfonds habe nur kurz gedauert. Von Ende 2000 bis Anfang 2003. Danach habe der Goldpreis konsolidiert. Nur scheinbar, wie Martin Siegel meine.

Der Fondsberater des PEH-Q-Goldmines sehe den Goldpreis in fünf Jahren bei 600 Dollar.

"Der schwache US-Dollar im Vergleich zu Rand, Kanada- und Au…, sage er.

Ein gutes Zeichen, dass Gold und Goldminen-Aktien den Zenit noch lange nicht überschritten hätten. "Der Goldpreis wird auf Fälle in den nächsten fünf Jahren auf 600 Dollar klettern", gebe sich Siegel optimistisch.

Wann der Aufschwung beginnt? "Das kann schon morgen soweit sein. Auch der Silberpreis ist schon einmal über Nacht von fünf auf sieben Dollar gestiegen", sage Siegel. Ein hoher Goldpreis sei natürlich gut für die Minen-Unternehmen. Aber auch auf dem jetzigen Niveau hätten viele Goldproduzenten ordentlich verdient.

"Dividendenrenditen von bis zu acht Prozent sind ein untrügliches Zeichen, dass es den Unternehmen gut geht", erkläre Siegel. Zudem seien viele Titel mit einem KGV von zehn nicht gerade überbewertet.

Siegel habe aber noch mehr Asse im Ärmel. Zum Beispiel, dass Alan Greenspans Geldpolitik auf Inflation ausgerichtet sei:
"Das stärkt langfristig den Wert der Währung Gold", so Siegel. Im Gegensatz zu Geld werde Gold immer einen Wert behalten.
Der könnte sogar "explodieren".

Dann nämlich, wenn die Zentralbanken das an die Investmentbanken ausgeliehene Gold "im Umfang einer Fünf-Jahresproduktion" zurückfordern würden.

Aber auch so nehme die Nachfrage nach dem Edelmetall immer weiter zu. So könnten Chinesen erst seit kurzem in größerem Umfang Gold kaufen. "Die Chinesen haben wie bei fast allen Dingen auch beim Gold…, sage Siegel.

Immerhin: Der Aufwärtstrend des FT Gold Mines sei weiter intakt. Der MSCI World hänge weit zurück. Zwischen 1980 und 2000 sei das schon mal anders gewesen. Goldminenaktien seien in dieser Zeit die schlechteste Anlageklasse gewesen.

Martin Siegel gehe aber davon aus, dass diese Zeiten endgültig Vergangenheit seien.

Goldminenfonds würden derzeit nicht gerade zu den Absatzrennern gehören. Zu unrecht: Denn als Depotbeimischung sind sie sehr gut geeignet, so die Experten von "FundResearch".

[erdede]

hallo miteinander,

eine Frage, kennt ihr eine Site wo ich bei Gold- und Silber
die technischen Indikatoren einsehen und einstellen kann?
Bei den mir bekannten wurden die Java-Applets erneuert und die vorher vorhandenen Commodities Gold und Silber z.b. nicht mehr übernommen.

Gruss
erdede

[ThaiGuru]

Posting #6755

Big Charts: Klick auf Java Charts

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/

oder

Comdirect England:

http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

August 7 - Gold $352.40 up $1.40 - Silver $5.03 up 7 cents

Gold And Silver Hold Support/Turkish Gold Demand Stunning

"If I have ever made any valuable discoveries, it has been o…..Isaac Newton

All was quiet on the western front today. Trading in gold was very light. The good news was both gold and silver held key technical support areas and turned up. Early on gold fell just below $350, but turned right around as the dollar weakened.

Silver tested $4.90 for the third day in a row and successfully passed the test. It fell 8 cents in the early going to $4.88, but turned back up with a vengeance as Morgan Stanley emerged as a significant buyer. Silver is now poised to take out $5.20.

Silver:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/93

It’s great to see volatility return to the silver market. It tells me that 30 to 40 cent up days are not too far off. At some point it will rally $1 in one trading session.

The silver open interest was little changed which surprised the floor. They expected a big liquidation. Today’s healthy advance suggests silver is indeed in strong hands. The commercials are very short and are likely to get even more short. A move above $5.20 could give us a Commercial Signal Failure.

Outside market factors were gold constructive:

*The dollar, which closed at 95.96, down .46. It was weaker against all currencies.

Dollar:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/93

*Commodity prices are bubbling and inching their way up. The CRB closed at 237.13, up 1.29 and has broken a downtrend line. The price of copper has been firming of late, closing at 81.3 cents per pound and oil, at $32.42, is poised to move higher.

CRB:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/83

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Thursday, August 07, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.27, PM $7.31, with world gold at $350.15 and $349.80. High: well above legal import point. The Indian rupee closed at an import-facilitating 33-month high today. India is in fact enjoying an economic boom: the UBS economist covering India has raised his FY’04 GDP estimate from 6% to 7.1%, and the success of the Monsoon is universally acknowledged. More important in my view is the stock market boom – up 27% since May - and the euphoria developing amongst the business and professional class about America’s apparent willingness to permit large scale "Outsourcing" – the export of white collar and IT jobs to India. Confidence is running high and the Financial center, Bombay, appears to be strongest regional bullion market.

More positive physical news appeared today from Turkey:

Imports in July were a record 30 tonnes, so that imports for…

Much of this flow (thought by some dealers to be seriously understated) is believed to be on its way to other Middle East destinations. In general, it seems clear that a remarkable acceleration of physical offtake started around April when gold made a major low: in other words too recent to have appeared on the archaic radar screen of GFMS.

According to Mitsubishi, Australian dealer pressure was responsible for gold’s softness in early Asian hours. TOCOM as usual was in no mood to dispute: volume fell 31% to the equivalent of a low 20,408 Comex contracts, the active contract was down 8 yen and world gold went out 90c below the NY close. Open interest inched up the equivalent of 216 Comex lots. Japan wants to go on holiday. (NY yesterday traded 37,180 contracts. Open interest fell another 1,015 lots, and has now fallen 38,000 lots in six days.)

Besides the intelligence on Turkey, a noted bullion dealer also supplies some useful information today on the remarkable performance of gold shares:


gold shares, HUI, is up 16.8% this year. Impressive, against bullion itself up 2.9%, and against XAU index of more heavily hedged gold companies up 7.7%. Even beats S&P rise of 10%."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"Traditional values: well I’ll be bugged…the index of lightl….

(He draws attention to the fact that shares have yet to regain the position relative to bullion they had when the HUI was started in May 1996, which appears to me to be a positive point.) And he has an appealing suggestion for Comex:

"I vote George W. the COMEX Man of the Year for services to …

JB

John Brimelow’s splendid work is unique and adds invaluable input to Café members. Contrary to the disinformation drivel the gold establishment puts out, we know gold demand is very strong. This is critical input because it is this strong demand for gold which is going to eventually overpower the crooks in The Gold Cartel. This news from Turkey is absolutely STUNNING!

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Culogrande1]

@Siamkaterchen:na..war doch wieder ein psychologischer Volltreffer meinerseits.

Du bist dermassen schlicht in deinen Reaktionen auf Vorwürfe .....dass es eine wahre Freude ist.

Aber zum guten Ende.......Culogrande heist Riesenarschloch...und der Nick ist genial

Hast du schon mal bemerkt wann Culo und wann Culogrande als Signatur dasteht.

@Konradi: eeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhh,du wirst ja immer besser

Und zum Boardadel.....dem dürfen Gurus nicht mal den Staub von der Stiefelsohle lecken....geschweige denn Plutonias Odeur an ihrer intimsten Stelle sensorisch erkunden.

Damit Schluss, mit intellektuellen Gartenzwergen diskutiere ich nicht....es ist absolut sinnlos.

Culogrande.....so sacht am Rande

[ThaiGuru]

@Culogrande1

In #6759 schreibst Du

"Culogrande heist Riesenarschloch"

Du glaubst Der User Name sei "genial"?

"Passend" währe wohl die zutreffendere Bezeichnung!

[Culogrande1]

Na, wenn du das meinst

Culogrande....speziell am Rande

[talvi100]

Ist mit Vorsicht zugeniesen!


Grüße Talvi

[JesusvonNazareth]

Hiermit verkünde ich, speziell für den Thai-Heuler, ein paar neue Gebote:

1. Du sollst die Multi-Nicks anderer Board-Teilnehmer nicht durcheinander werfen.
2. Du sollst den Fettdruck meiden.
3. Du darfst nicht verleugnen, dass der Preis für Gold und Silber auch mal fallen kann.
4. Du darfst nicht begehren, an Plutonia zu schnuppern, wenn Dir dazu das notwendige Kleingeld mangelt.

Amen!

[ThaiGuru]

@Dottore Lupo, DBrix, Culogrande1, DottoressaLupo1, JesusvonNazareth, etc.

Bei Dir muss sich jetzt auch noch die letzte Schraube gelockert haben!

"JesusvonNazareth"

Lass mal einen Gehirn M.R.I Scan machen.

Sich als WBoard Adliger zu fühlen ist eine Sache, sich als "JesusvonNazareth" zu fühlen eine andere.

Mann bist Du krank!

[Sozzi]

Das Kölner Fondshaus Sauren hat seine begehrten Goldmedaillen jetzt auch an Fondsmanager vergeben, die in bisher noch nicht beachteten Branchen tätig sind: Konsum, Finanzen, Technologie, Telemedien und Energie. Sauren bewertet Fondsmanager statt der Fonds, und das passt ihrer Ansicht nach gut zu Branchenfonds: Die seien oft noch zu jung für Ratings, aber die Manager hätten oft langjährige Erfahrung.
Gleich drei Goldmedaillen und damit die höchste Auszeichnung bekam Mark Greenberg, bei Invesco im Segment Konsum tätig. Sauren bescheinigt Greenberg damit ein „höchstes Maß an Qualität bezüglich seiner Anlagephilosophie, seines Investmentprozesses und seiner Vergangenheitserfolge“. Der hoch dekorierte Greenberg ist seit Anfang 1996 bei Invesco. In Deutschland ist nur ein von ihm gemanagter Fonds zu haben, der Invesco GT Leisure Fund (WKN 974 035). Bei der Rating-Agentur Morningstar liegt er mit einer Performance von 5 Prozent im laufenden Jahr in seiner Kategorie auf Platz 30 von 93. Interessierte können ab 1500 Euro einsteigen.
Jeweils zwei Goldmedaillen gingen an Walter Holick, Manager des DWS Technologie (WKN 847 414) und des DWS Telemedia (WKN 847 421), und an den Invesco-Manager John Segner, verantwortlich für GT Energy Fund (WKN 658 697). Mit einer Medaille wurden ausgezeichnet: Rainer Vermehren (DWS Konsumwerte, WKN 976 995), Yann Goffinet (Vontobel Financial Services, WKN 926 252), Scott Simpson (Clariden Technology, WKN 762 222), Ian Link (Franklin Technology, WKN 937 446) und Robin Batchelor (Merrill Lynch Energy, WKN 632 995, und New Energy, WKN 630 940).

Quelle: DER FONDS.com




...und mit was wird der beste Fondmanager der bisher noch nicht beachteten Branche Rohstoffe/Gold ausgezeichnet ?...

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030807/1857001518_2.html

Dow Jones Business News

Kinross Gold Results: 2Q Loss Widens Despite Higher Rev

Thursday August 7, 6:57 pm ET

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Kinross Gold Corp. reported a wider second-quarter loss due to high production costs at the Lupin and New Britannia mines.
In a press release Thursday, the Toronto-based gold mining company said its second-quarter loss was $5.2 million before preferred dividends, or 2 cents a share, compared with a loss of $4.3 million before preferred dividends, or 5 cents a share, last year.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call (News - Websites) were expecting first-quarter earnings of 1 cent a share.

Kinross said the strong Canadian dollar caused high production costs at the Lupin and New Britannia mines.

Second-quarter revenue more than doubled to $158.7 million from $65.1 million a year ago. Revenue was helped by a 9% decline in average total cash costs per equivalent ounce of gold produced.


Kinross Gold Corp. - Toronto
2nd Quar June 30:
2003 2002
Revenue $158,700,000 $65,100,000
Net income (5,200,000) (4,300,000)
Avg shrs (diluted) 314,700,000 119,400,000
Shr earns
Net income -a (.02) (.05)

Figures in parentheses are losses.

a. After convertible debentures.

Company Web site: http://www.kinross.com

-Stephen Lee; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5400

[ThaiGuru]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Nachdem ich diese Meldung gelesen habe, ist mir sofort klar geworden, warum unser ober Board Adlige, auf einmal glaubt Jesus von Nazareth zu sein, und dazu gleich noch die 10 Gebote auf 14 erhöhen wollte.



(Eil !!!!!) Neuer Hitzerekord in Deutschland: 40,8 Grad

Bochum (dpa) - Der neue Hitzerekord liegt in Deutschland bei 40,8 Grad. Diesen Wert hat der Wetterdienst Meteomedia im saarländischen Perl-Nennig gemessen. Nun werde die Station abgebaut und der Messwert noch einmal überprüft, sagte der Meteorologe Jörg Kachelmann der. Veröffentlicht von RZ-Online am 08.08.2003 18:42

[ThaiGuru]

Pflegeversicherung droht Rekorddefizit
Berlin (dpa)

Der Pflegeversicherung droht in diesem Jahr ein Rekorddefizit von bis zu einer halben Milliarde Euro.

Eine VdAK- Sprecherin bestätigte in Berlin die Angaben der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung". Genaue Zahlen lägen noch nicht vor und könnten erst zum Jahresende abhängig vom Verlauf der Konjunktur genannt werden. Das Gesundheitsministerium sprach von Spekulationen.

Im vergangenen Jahr hatte die Pflegeversicherung ein Defizit von 400 Millionen Euro ausgewiesen. Veröffentlicht von RZ-Online am 08.08.2003 15:22

[ThaiGuru]

Kreise - Handelsplatz Nasdaq Deutschland wird geschlossen

Frankfurt, 08. Aug (Reuters) - Der Handelsplatz der Nasdaq Deutschland wird nach dem Unternehmen nahe stehenden Börsenkreisen demnächst geschlossen.

"Die Nasdaq Deutschland wird geschlossen",

erfuhr Reuters am Freitag aus den Kreisen. Zuvor hatte der "Tagesspiegel" vorab aus seiner Samstagausgabe unter Berufung auf einen der Gesellschafter ebenfalls die Schließung der erst vor wenigen Monaten gegründeten Börse vermeldet. Nach Angaben aus Branchenkreisen tritt der Aufsichtsrat der Nasdaq Deutschland am Montag zusammen und wird dort über die Zukunft der Börse entscheiden. Das Unternehmen selbst und die beteiligten Banken wollten die Darstellung nicht kommentieren. ben/ban. Veröffentlicht von RZ-Online am 08.08.2003 16:28

[ThaiGuru]

Investmentfonds verklagen Freddie Mac

New York, 08. Aug (Reuters) - Zwei Fondsgesellschaften haben nach Angaben eines Rechtsanwalts bei einem Gericht in New York gegen den zweitgrößten US-Hypotheken-Refinanzierer Freddie Mac eine Sammelklage eingereicht.

Der West Virginia Investment Management Board und ein Teamster Fonds beschuldigten Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) mit der Irreführung der Anleger, sagte William Lerach, ein Partner der Anwaltkanzlei Milberg Weiss Bershad Hynes & Lerach am Freitag in New York.

Der West Virginia Fonds habe bei Investitionen über Freddie …

Auch der Generalstaatsanwalt des Bundesstaates Ohio, Jim Pet…

[/b][/url]Die halbstaatlichen Unternehmen Freddie Mac und die größere Schwestergesellschaft Fannie Mae kontrollieren zusammen über 40 Prozent des Hypotheken-Sekundärmarktes. Sie kaufen, bündeln und verkaufen Hypothekenkredite und ermöglichen damit niedrige Zinsen für die Immobilienfinanzierung.

Ungereimtheiten um Freddie Mac, der den Gewinn der vergangenen drei Jahre zu niedrig ausgewiesen hatte, belastete bereits die Aktienmärkte und machen die Anleger nervös.

Die Bilanzierungspraktiken des Unternehmens werden derzeit v…

Der Kurs der Freddie Mac-Aktie fiel am Freitag an der New Yorker Börse um 0,3 Prozent auf 49,25 Dollar. tcs/bek. Veröffentlicht von RZ-Online am 08.08.2003 19:48

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.faz.net/s/RubFC06D389EE76479E9E76425072B196C3/Doc…

Hintergründe

Gemeindefinanzen

Städte drohen mit Einschränkungen ihrer Leistungen

08. August 2003

Ude und Roth machen gegen Regierungspläne mobil

Die deutschen Städte drohen mit erheblichen Kürzungen ihrer Leistungen, wenn die Pläne der Bundesregierung zur Reform der Gewerbesteuer Gesetz werden sollten. Dann werde es eine Protestwelle und Großdemonstrationen in ganz Deutschland geben, sagte die Präsidentin des Deutschen Städtetags, Frankfurts Oberbürgermeisterin Roth (CDU).

Zusammen mit ihrem Stellvertreter, Münchens Oberbürgermeister Ude (SPD), bezifferte sie nach einer Sondersitzung des Präsidiums des kommunalen Spitzenverbandes den Finanzbedarf der Kommunen auf zehn Milliarden Euro. Die Pläne der Regierung seien eine Mogelpackung, sagte Roth. Drei Viertel der vorgesehenen Mehreinnahmen aus der geplanten Kommunalsteuerreform entfielen auf die Umsatzsteuer. Das sei keine eigene kommunale Einnahmequelle, sondern eine Zuweisungssteuer, kritisierte sie.

"Wenn das durchkommt, ist das das Ende der Gewerbesteuer".

Freie Berufe einbeziehen

Roth bekräftigte die Forderung der Kommunen, die Gewerbesteuer zu revitalisieren, indem ertragsunabhängige Elemente wie Zinsen, Mieten, Pachten, Leasingraten in die Bemessungsgrundlage einbezogen würden. Das lehnt die Bundesregierung ab, sie will sogar die Dauerschuldzinsen, die bisher zur Hälfte in die Berechnung der Steuerlast einfließen, künftig nicht mehr berücksichtigen. Damit gehe es bei der Gewerbesteuer nicht um eine Modernisierung, sondern um deren Demontage, kritisierte Ude.

Sie würde damit immer mehr der Einkommensteuer angenähert und "gerät dadurch in verfassungsrechtlich bedenkliches Fahrwass…, warnte er. "Jetzt muß sich erweisen, ob für ein Gesetzesvorhaben die Bu…, sagte er.

Ude forderte den Bundesrat auf, der geplanten Einbeziehung der Freien Berufe in die neue Gemeindewirtschaftsteuer zuzustimmen.

Es sei nicht einzusehen, warum ein Handwerksbetrieb mit 20 Beschäftigten Gewerbesteuer zahle, eine Wirtschaftskanzlei mit ebensoviel Mitarbeitern hingegen nicht. Er monierte zudem, daß der Bund mit der Übernahme der erwerbsfähigen Sozialhilfeempfänger noch ein Geschäft machen wolle. Das koste Eichel sieben Milliarden Euro, er wolle aber zehn Milliarden Euro über die Neuverteilung der Umsatzsteueranteile von den Ländern erhalten. Die Kommunen fürchten, daß das die Länder anschließend bei ihnen wieder kassieren.

Scharfe Kritik

Scharfe Kritik wurde auch aus den Reihen der Koalitionsfraktionen laut. "Es geht der Fraktion um eine Modernisierung der Gewerbesteuer und nicht um ihre Abschaffung", sagte der stellvertretende Vorsitzende der SPD-Fraktion, Poß, dieser Zeitung. "Denn die Kommunen brauchen auch dann Finanzmittel, wenn die Konjunktur nicht so gut läuft und die Unternehmen keine Gewinne machen." Er kritisierte die Kehrtwende des Finanzministers in diesem Punkt.

"Daß Wirtschaftsminister Clement gegen die Einbeziehung ertragsunabhängiger Elemente ist, war allen Beteiligten bekannt. Daß Eichel sich allerdings dieser Meinung angeschlossen hat, verwundert hingegen." Sinn und Zweck einer Objektsteuer wie der Gewerbeseteuer sei es nämlich, nicht den Ertrag, sondern den Gewerbebetrieb als solchen zu besteuern. Er nutze die von der Kommune zur Verfügung gestellte Infrastruktur zu guten und zu schlechten Zeiten. "Wenn die Gewerbesteuer hingegen diese Funktion nicht mehr ausüben soll, sondern faktisch zu einer Ertragssteuer umfunktioniert wird, wäre es vielleicht ehrlicher, sie ganz abzuschaffen", meinte Poß.

Neue Probleme

Die kommunalpolitische Sprecherin der Grünen, Andreae, kündigte an, ihre Fraktion werde genau prüfen, inwieweit die vorgeschlagenen Instrumente die kommunalen Einnahmen stärkten und verstetigten.

"Es geht nicht, daß wieder nur der Mittelstand und nun noch …, sagte sie.

In der Sondersitzung des Präsidiums des Deutschen Städtetages soll der Dortmunder Oberbürgermeister Gerhard Langemeyer, der auch Vorsitzender der Sozialdemokratischen Gemeinschaft für Kommunalpolitik ist, darauf aufmerksam gemacht haben, daß die Vorschläge zur Gemeindefinanzreform der Bundesregierung nicht mit denen des Parteitages zur Agenda 2010 zu vereinbaren seien.

Der FDP-Finanzpolitiker Pinkwart sagte, Eichel gehe zwar in die richtige Richtung, schaffe jedoch neue Probleme. Die Einnahmsituation der Kommunen würde damit nicht verstetigt und ihre Finanzautonomie weiter eingeschränkt. Nicht zuletzt werfe sein Ansatz verfassungsrechtliche Probleme auf, da Landwirte und beispielsweise angestellte Anwälte nicht mit ihren Einnahmen zur Finanzierung der Gemeinden herangezogen werden sollten.

Parteiübergreifende Abwehrfront

Der stellvertretende Präsident des Städtetages Wittke (CDU) urteilte im Gespräch mit dieser Zeitung, der Vorschlag der Bundesregierung habe mit einer Gemeindefinanzreform nichts mehr zu tun. Städte und Gemeinden hätten erwartet, durch die Gewerbesteuerreform um vier Milliarden Euro, durch die Zusammenlegung von Arbeitslosen- und Sozialhilfe um 4,5 Milliarden Euro und bei der Einrichtung von Ganztagskindergartenplätzen um 1,5 Milliarden vom Bund entlastet zu werden. Das sei nun aber nicht der Fall.

Zu rechnen sei mit einer Entlastung in Höhe von 2,53 Milliarden Euro. "In der Sache gewinnt der Bund, der jetzt einen höheren Umsa…, sagte Wittke. Er unterstützt einen Vorschlag des bayerischen Ministerpräsidenten Stoiber (CSU), die Gewerbesteuer nicht für Freiberufler zu erheben und dafür den Gemeinden zu erlauben, die Gewerbesteuerumlage, die sie an den Bund abführen, von 30 auf 20 Prozent zu verringern.

"Die kommunale Abwehrfront steht parteiübergreifend", sagte Wittke.

Text: mas./rso. / Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 09.08.2003, Nr. 183 / Seite 1

[ThaiGuru]

Nicht gerade berauschend, aber für einen weiteren Preis Anstieg der Gold Minen Aktien reicht der heutige Goldpreisanstieg alleweil!

[silverpwd]

Nicht gerade berauschend ?
Schau dir mal den US$ an.
Das müsste das Signal sein, das irgendetwas anders ist als sonst.

[ThaiGuru]

Nun, der Dollar wurde gerade hochgezogen, und Gold steigt trotzdem im Preis an. Ist es das was Du mit "Das müsste das Signal sein, das irgendetwas anders ist als sonst" meinst?

Hatten wir doch schon öffters gehabt!

Die 2.-, 3.- lumpigen Dollars find ich nun wirklich noch nic…

Diese für Gold Bugs berauschenden Zeiten kommen wieder, wir stehen vielleicht gerade kurz davor.

[schuh]

Diese entschuldigung (Drecksamis) können langsam
nicht mehr alles:

aktien oben halten
bonds stützen
Dollar stützen
andere Märkte runterziehen

und

gold, silber gleichzeitig drücken

Ich glaube die Zeit für bestimmte Kreise läuft ab

[silverpwd]

Solange Gold mit dem Dollar lief, war das Zeug uninteressant.
Das werden viele Trittbrettfahrer (wie meiner einer) auf dieser Welt genauso sehen.

[manfred1_I]

Schaut euch den HUI-Index an und ihr
werdet staunen.


Gold ist schon losgestartet nur kaum einer hat
es gemerkt.
Goldpreis in Dollar zieht schon nächste Woche
nach. Keine Angst.

[Wasserzeichen]

@schuh

Genau,so sieht die Sache aus....mit wenigen Worten das wesentliche gesagt!

@manfred

Der Hui-Ausbruch sieht schon höllisch gut aus!Bin zwar schon ganz gut mit Silbercalls und physischem Si gesattelt,aber
ein hui-Zerti gönn ich mir auch noch,ein bisschen wird der heutige Tag schon noch korrigiert werden,vielleicht...

[ThaiGuru]

Sieht ja wirklich gut aus Manfred!

Der HUI Gold Bugs Index.

Ein 6 Jahres Hoch!

[DBrix]

@Wasserzeichen

Was machst Du denn mit dem Silicium?

[niemandweiss]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton080803.ht…

[ThaiGuru]

August 8 - Gold $356.20 up $3.80 - Silver $4.98 down 5 cents

Gold Bugs Index (HUI) Goes Berserk To The Upside

"We need an opposition in wartime and peacetime to maintain … --William Goldcamp

One of the most important gold days of the year so far. When I woke up this morning, gold was $2 higher even though the dollar was much firmer, stock markets were higher around the world (with the US market due higher) and the bond market had rallied. Yet, gold was showing distinct independent strength. There is nothing better for the big picture gold scenario than to have gold move on its own. Why:

*It tells us gold demand is so strong it is overpowering out…

Gold closed higher every day this week and makes last Friday’s clobbering by Goldman Sachs look all the more bogus. Gold’s close today was above that of last Thursday night’s close, erasing all of last Friday’s losses. It sure seems to me gold was deliberately trashed ahead of this week’s US Government note auctions. Now that the auctions are over, gold is going right back up. The demand out there is just too strong to hold it down for very long.

Fund stops were set off early at $346.50 basis the December contract.

The dollar closed up a hefty .61 to 96.57 and the euro fell .67 to 112.90.

Gold’s open interest INCREASED yesterday to 201,976, up 2392 contracts. The big liquidation on the price drop appears to be over. If that is the case, gold could be going back up with 25,000 less contracts liquidated than earlier in the year when the open interest also rose above 240,000. Even better, the price drop on this break was only $20 compared to a $69 drop in February. This tells me the long gold positions are indeed in stronger hands.

Technicians have to like this nicely rounded bottom formation:

Gold:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Some big player sold 1500 Dec 400 calls and bought 1500 Dec 450 calls. The thinking on the floor is the trader was rolling over his position.

Even though gold closed higher every day this week, there ar…

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Friday, August 08, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.52 PM (N/A) with world gold at $353.55. Comfortably above legal import point.

Apparently there was some appetite for gold futures on TOCOM: although volume was low - only equal to 17,835 Comex lots (down 13% on yesterday) - open interest rose by the equivalent of 1591 Comex contracts, some world gold-supporting arbitrage developed, and $US gold was $1.05 above the NY close at the end. The yen was appreciably stronger and the active contract was only up 2 yen. Japan is effectively closed for much of the next ten days for the Obon summer break: it looks, however, as if the BOJ yen-restraint team may have their vacation interrupted. (NY traded 26,561 lots yesterday: Open interest rose 2,392 lots.)

Although apprehensive about sudden massive selling raids like last Friday, those few observers who are around are starting to factor in the resilience of physical offtake. Possibly the calming of the Treasury market and the conclusion of the big Bond auctions lessens the likelihood of abrupt slumps like occurred a week ago.

Also the technicians are becoming quietly bolder. My old friend Martin Pring http://www.pring.com in his weekly comment observes:

"PRECIOUS METALS

December gold continues to trade between two converging trendlines at $345 and $370. Whichever way it breaks is likely to signal the direction of the next major move. From a bull market perspective, it is important for an upside breakout to develop in fairly short order since some of the longer-term momentum indicators have started to stall. We believe the odds favor this because several of our inflation indicators have gone bullish and the gold shares also look promising.

One key probably lies in the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Share Index (XAU). This Index has been lagging the other major North American Index, the Gold Bugs, which has already broken to the upside. Consequently, a rally above major resistance in the form of the trendline would most probably give the gold complex a good boost. The line is currently at 84, so a daily close above the 86-88 zone would do the trick."

(Since the XAU at this writing is over 84 this is an interesting thought.)

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[Wasserzeichen]

@DBrix

Pardon,war einfach zu faul "lber" einzutippen...
und "Ag" oder "Argentum" klingt so wie wenn ich ne Ahnung
von Chemie hätte....

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/utilities/search/?show=385…

09 August 2003

More than beautiful
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The long-standing role of gold as a store of wealth, and its use in jewellery, has largely overshadowed its industrial uses – this although the metal has important uses in electronics, dentistry, and in some pharmaceutical products. Department of Minerals and Energy gold and platinum group metals chief mineral economist Alex Conradie tells Mining Weekly that new technologies have allowed gold to be used in new ways, including some that can save lives. “As we look to future innovations for using this precious metal, exciting technical advances can be expected in industrial applications for gold,” notes Conradie. He says that one of the new applications for gold in the industry is as a catalyst.

Gold, which at most scales of use, is the least reactive of metals, has been found to be selectively reactive at the nanoscale. “Recent innovations in research have shown that, when properly prepared, gold can be preferable to other, more conventional, catalytic materials. “For instance, platinum and palladium require high temperatures for catalysis to occur, but under proper conditions, gold will act as a catalyst at ambient temperatures, therefore making it more effective across the normal spectrum,” adds Conradie.

New developments in catalysis may allow gold to replace or t…

A unique feature of gold is that it can accomplish this at room temperature and in the presence of moisture, whereas other catalysts require higher temperatures and dry air streams before the reaction takes place. Thus, there might be a future role for gold as a catalyst in air-conditioning systems, helping to diminish the unpleasant effects of the so-called sick-building syndrome, reports Conradie.

Potential also exists for the use of gold in autocatalysts for diesel-powered vehicles, because diesel engines operate at lower temperatures than petrol engines, which run at a much higher temperature, near to the melting point of gold. He says that another area with the potential to boost gold demand is the pharmaceutical industry. “Previously, the medical profession rejected the notion of using heavy metals in the treatment of patients. However, the recent success of a gold compound to treat certain types of cancer has rekindled the interest. “New technologies are also revolutionising medical applications for gold – surgeons use gold instruments to clear clogged coronary arteries, and the injection of microscopic gold pellets helps to retard prostate cancer. “Lasers with gold-coated parts literally give new life to patients with once-inoperable heart conditions or tumours, and are also used widely in delicate surgery on eyes and brain tissue,” adds Conradie.

Texas A&M University professor of chemistry and toxicology Dr John Fackler discovered light-emission properties in certain gold compounds, which, he says, react to the presence or absence of various compounds or acids in the body. This could lead to the development of sensors to detect and pinpoint the precise location of disease, reports Conradie.

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have developed a means for using gold to help dispense medicine from inside the body, therefore eliminating the need for patients to remember to take the right amount of medicine at the right time. Dr Robert Langer, of MIT, has developed a microchip the size of a human thumbnail, with more than a thousand separate compartments, which can hold medications in solid, liquid or gel form. “Each of these compartments is designed to open and close, releasing the precise amount of medication exactly when it is needed. “The medicine is released when a tiny electrical charge is applied between the silicon chips’ thin gold cover and a gold electrode,” notes Conradie.

He says that gold-coated microcomponents, already in use for pacemakers, will deliver the electric charge when sensors indicate that lifesaving medication is required in the patient’s system. These applications for gold may not use much in any single produc but, collectively, they could represent a major increase in demand. World gold consumption is set to increase by 300 to 400 tons a year over the next five to ten years, as a result of new industrial applications of the metal, according to the World Gold Council, concludes Conradie.

[ThaiGuru]

Interessante Nachrichten betreffend der Nachfrage nach Gold:

"Der Weltgoldverbrauch wird weiter zunehmen!"

Die nächsten 5 bis 10 Jahre wird der physische Goldverbrauch jährlich mit 300 bis 400 Tonnen pro Jahr ansteigen. Vor allem wegen neuer industriellen Anwendungen des Edel Metalles Gold. Einen interessanten Beitrag mit Aussagen von Alex Conradie vom World Gold Council, kann man hier in englischer Sprache vorfinden. http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/utilities/search/?show=385…

Damit können Gold Bugs auf der Nachfrageseite für`s Gold für die nächsten Jahre rechnen!

1 - Der Chinesische Goldmarkt lässt, eine zusätzliche Nachfr…

Das ergibt zusammen gerechnet pro Jahr die fast unvorstellbare Menge von mindestens 1000 Tonnen zusätzlicher physischer Gold Nachfrage.

Diese Menge erhöht die Gesamtnachfrage für Gold auf mindeste…

Da wir auch wissen, dass die heutige Gold Produktion von 2,500 Tonnen / Jahr, sich bis ins Jahr 2010, um weitere ca. 30% verringern wird, kann es eigentlich nur noch Ignoranten, Obrigkeitshörigen, Id.ot.n, oder Goldcabal Freunden möglich sein zu hoffen, oder zu vermuten, dass der Gold Preis zukünftig nicht weiter steigen, oder wie in einzelnen Fällen behauptet wird, sogar noch weiter fallen werde.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Einen schönen Sonntag wünsche ich allen Gold Bugs, und denjenigen die gerade dabei sind es zu werden.

Gold hat Zukunft!

Erpressung der Chinesen?

Nach einer Meldung von Reuters am gestrigen Samstag, hatte die chinesische Regierung dem Finanzministerium der USA unter Snoh gedroht, falls er sich mit Kritik am Wechelkurs Verhältnis des Yuan zum US Dollar nicht endlich zurückhält, würde es sich China nochmals neu überlegen, ob sie weiter die amerikanischen "Schuldenzettel" Treasurie Bonds, und die Schuldverschreibungen der halbstaatlichen Mortage Firmen Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac kaufen sollten. Da die Chinesen bereits schon 121.7 (US) Billionen dieser amerikanischen Schuldverschreibungen besitzen, und die Amis dringend darauf angewiesen sind, dass Japan und China, als netto Exporteure, und auch die übrige Welt weiter ihren Ausgabe Irrsinn durch den Erwerb von US Treasurie Bonds finanziert, um ihn überhaupt weiterführen zu können, kommt diese chinesische Ankündigung einer glatten "Erpressung" gleich!

Dass die Chinesen ihre Zentralbank Gold Bestände seit geraumer Zeit immer mehr aufstocken, und ihren Bürgern den privaten Besitz von Gold, und Silber, nach jahrzehntelangem Verbot, jetzt plötzlich erlaubt haben, dahinter steht meiner Ansicht nach die Absicht, über den Umweg der eigenen Bevölkerung, die kontinuierlich weiter ansteigenden chinesischen Dollar Devisen Reserven, in das einzig richtige und wahre Geld, das auch kein Zahlungsversprechen irgend einer anderen Seite darstellt umzutauschen, nähmlich in Gold!

Die drei wichtigsten Aussagen in diesem Reuters Bericht von gestern, möchte ich für der englischen sprache mächtig sind hier auch nochmals hervorheben!

Die Tragweite dieser drei hervorgehobenen Aussagen, sollte eigentlich jeden weitsichtigen, und halbwegs kombinationsfähigen Gold Bug vor Freude frohlocken lassen!

"But unless the U.S. calms its criticism, Chinese officials …

"Through May, Japan and China were the two largest holders o…

"Those steady purchases from China and other Asian countries…



http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030808/3/3d9np.html

Physisches Gold und Silber, strong buy!!!

Viel Zeit bleibt vermutlich nicht mehr!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

Month-long gold festival in Kerala

Kochi, August 7: In an attempt to revitalise interest in the yellow metal and showcase the traditional craftsmanship of the gold jewellery in Kerala, a month-long gold festival is being organised in five cities in the state from October 10.

Called `Swarnam`, the event is being planned on the lines of Dubai gold festival by the organizers -- Kerala Tourism, All Kerala Gold and Silver Merchants Association and the World Gold council (WGC), India, All Kerala Gold and Silver Merchants Association (AKGSMA) president K T Cherian, vice-president of the WGC K Shivaram and joint director of Tourism V A Aurangazeb told a press meet here.

The event, to be held in Kozhikode, Thrissur, Kochi, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram, has been designed to brand Kerala as an "evergreen land of gold".

The traditional elements of purity, creativity and craftsmanship of the gold jewellery from the state would be projected to attract both domestic and international tourists, Shivaram said.

The aim of the event is also to project Kerala`s gold industry as a potential sector for generating income and employment opportunities and to bring the gold jewellers of the state under one big umbrella, Cherian said.

A special exhibition with pavilions for gold artisans to show their skills, display of gold gallery and display of other high-value products in metals, machinery, accessories, will also be held. (Agencies)

[hpoth]

@ TaihGuru,
Die Goldwanderung ging erst von Ost nach West, und immer wo Gold war war die Wirtschaft im gutem Zustand, jetzt wandert das Gold wieder solangsam von West ( USA) nach Osten (China) die Chinesen werden mit Ihren Wachstumsraten glaube so an die 10%,auch zur Großmacht sich mausern, USA wird verlieren.In der Historie kann man daß schön sehen immer wo Gold war gabs einen Aufschwung ( altes Rom z.B )

[DagosBert_II]

Aus Spiegel-online von heute

Bangen um Barren

Finanzpolitiker in Bern rühren an einen empfindsamen Nerv der eidgenössischen Regierung. Sie sorgen sich um die Sicherheit jener schweizerischen Goldreserven, die in ausländischen Tresoren deponiert sind und verlangen Auskunft darüber, ob sie "im Notfall" rasch wieder in den Alpenstaat gebracht werden können.


DPA

Goldreserven


Diese Frage tauchte auch schon während des Irak-Kriegs auf, als es zu Spannungen mit den USA kam, weil die Eidgenossenschaft resolut auf ihrer Neutralität beharrte. So wurde der Wunsch Washingtons verworfen, irakische Diplomaten auszuweisen, und amerikanischen Militärmaschinen waren die Überflugrechte verweigert worden. Überraschend verließ Mitte März US-Botschafter Mercer Reynolds den Posten in Bern.
Nun will die Finanzdelegation der Eidgenössischen Räte wissen, ob das Auslandsgold vertraglich vor dem Zugriff Dritter geschützt ist. Abgeordnete befürchten, dass amerikanische Bundesrichter etwa jenes Schweizer Gold beschlagnahmen könnten, das sich möglicherweise im berühmten Fort Knox befindet. Finanzminister Kaspar Villiger tat auf eine Anfrage im Parlament geheimnisvoll: "Wo diese Barren liegen, kann ich Ihnen leider nicht sagen, weil ich es auch nicht weiß, es nicht wissen muss und es nicht wissen will."


Gruß
Dag

[Cashlover]

das ist doch irgendwie ein schlechter Witz, dass niemand in der Schweiz Auskunnft über den Aufbewahrungsort für die Goldreserven der Schweiz gibt!

Was bedeutet das eigentlich für die Golddeckung des schweizer Franken?
Angeblich sind doch 40 Rappen/Franken goldgedeckt.
Wenn aber die Goldreserven ausgelagert sind, ist das nicht besonders vertrauenserweckend, oder sehe ich da was falsch?

Wenn das schweizer Gold tatsächlich in den USA liegt ist die Schweiz auch bezüglich des Bankgeheimnisses, welches dem us-amerikanischen Fiskus ja auch schon lange ein Dorn im Auge ist, komplett erpressbar.
Eigentlich wäre das eine Katastrophe, vielleicht veranstaltet man deshalb so einen Eiertanz, die Antwort auf den Aufenthaltsort der Reserven betreffend?

Hier steht die Frage des Finanzplatzes "Schweiz" m.M auf dem Spiel.

[hpoth]

Wir haben doch das gleiche Problem, das meiste Gold der Deutschen liegt doch bei der FED, im Ernstfall kommen wir da auch nicht mehr dran.mfg hpoth

[Nefprak]

manipulation, lügnerei, erpressung kleiner staaten, korruption. USA.

[Cashlover]

#6792

das das deutsche Gold in den usa liegt, ist aber bekannt.

Mit den Goldreserven der Schweiz, verhält es sich da anders, sollte das auch in den us gebunkert sein, währe das zumindest für mich, neu.

Es gab bislang nur entsprechende Vermutungen, oder?

Der schweizer Franken galt doch in der Vergangenheit häufig als "Fluchtwährung" in Krisenzeiten Das könnte sich ändern, wenn die, den Franken absichernden Goldreserven, ausgerechnet in den Staaten liegen.

Man muss sich ja auch mal, unabhängig von jedem Verdacht des antiamerikanismus, die Frage stellen, warum es nun gerade dort liegt, falls dies zutrifft.

Ich meine, die Schweiz verfügt ja wohl selber über ausgezeichnet gesicherte, eigene Lagermöglichkeiten!

Außerdem ist die Schweiz doch eine plebiszitäre Demokratie.

Hätte es bezüglich der Auslagerung der Goldreserven ins Ausland nicht einer Volksbefragung bedurft?
Es wurden bereits wesentlich weniger sensible Fragen über das Plebiszit geregelt.
Und hier geht es immerhin um Volksvermögen.
mfg

[ThaiGuru]

@Cashlover

Das Schweizer Gold ist vermutlich schon lange physisch zum grössten Teil weg. Habe bereits mehrfach im Gold Board darüber gepostet. Die Nationalbank weiss schon ganz genau, warum sie keine Auskunft erteilt über den Verbleib, und die Lagerungsorte des Schw. Nationalbank Goldes. Sie hat Angst, dass falls die Wahrheit ans Licht kommt, ein Panic artiger Run auf physisches Gold bei den Banken losgehen könnte!

Diesen Artikel veröffentlichte die schweizerische Sonntagszeitung Blick in ihrer Ausgabe vom 9. März 2003.
Ueber die Suchfunktion bei Blick, habe ich den Artikel nicht mehr vorfinden können, darum kann ich ihn leider nurmehr im Textformat posten.

Artikel vom 9. März 2003 / Quelle: SonntagsBlick

Ist unser Gold bei Kriegsherr Bush noch sicher?

VON HENRY HABEGGER

Wo liegen die 2000 Tonnen Goldreserven der Schweiz? Die Nationalbank schweigt. Gerüchten zufolge soll ein Grossteil davon im amerikanischen Fort Knox gebunkert sein. Das könnte ungemütliche Folgen haben, falls US-Präsident Bush ohne UN-Mandat in den Krieg zieht.

«Weiss ich nicht», sagt der Zürcher SVP-Nationalrat Bruno Zuppiger, Mitglied der Finanzkommission. «Weiss ich nicht», sagt der St.-Galler CVP-Nationalrat Felix Walker, Mitglied der Finanzdelegation und ehemaliger Chef der Raiffeisen-Banken. «Weiss ich nicht», sagt die Berner FDP-Nationalrätin Käthi Bangerter, Mitglied des Bankrats der Schweizer Nationalbank (SNB) und der Finanzkommission.

Die Frage, die SonntagsBlick diese Woche an einige Finanzpolitiker stellte: Wo ist unser Gold? Wo bewahrt die Nationalbank ihre Goldreserven auf? Das «Volksvermögen», von dem so viel die Rede ist, weil es zur Hälfte verkauft wird und die Verwendung des Erlöses politisch umstritten ist. Der «Goldschatz», der sich derzeit noch auf rund 2000 Tonnen beläuft.

Wo ist unser Gold? Genau das will der Berner SP-Nationalrat Paul Günter jetzt wissen. In der Fragestunde des Parlaments morgen Montag stellt der Sicherheitspolitiker dem Bundesrat drei Fragen:

Ist es richtig, dass die Goldreserven der Schweiz zu einem erheblichen Teil in Fort Knox in den USA gelagert sind?
Gibt es noch an anderen Orten und in anderen Ländern wesentliche Goldlager der Schweiz?
Wie rasch, unter welchen Umständen und von wem kann dieses Gold allenfalls zurückgezogen werden?

Das Goldrätsel. Heute gibt es nur Gerüchte. Ein Teil soll unter dem Bundesplatz in Bern lagern. Ein Teil in Fort Knox im US-Bundesstaat Kentucky, wichtigster Aufbewahrungsort der US-Goldreserven und Depot aller europäischen Zentralbanken. Ein weiterer Teil in London, dem Zentrum des internationalen Goldhandels.

SonntagsBlick fragte bei der Nationalbank nach. Doch Sprecher Werner Abegg gibt sich bedeckt: «Über das Gold der Nationalbank kursieren die verschiedensten Gerüchte. Aus Sicherheitsgründen ist es uns nicht möglich, sie zu kommentieren bzw. richtigzustellen.» Nur so viel lässt sich der Sprecher der Schweizer Notenbank entlocken: «Das Gold wird an verschiedenen Orten im In- und Ausland gelagert.» Laut Abegg nach dem Motto: «Der kluge Bauer legt nicht alle Eier in denselben Korb.»

Die Befürchtung ist klar: Das Gold könnte gestohlen werden. Die Angst scheint so gross, dass die Nationalbank jede noch so geringe Präzisierung zum Aufbewahrungsort (Länder, Kontinente) verweigert. (wer`s glaubt wird seelig, TG)

SP-Mann Günter hat ganz andere Bedenken. «Wenn es stimmt, dass ein Grossteil des Goldes in Fort Knox liegt, dann ist die Situation ausserordentlich ungemütlich. Wenn die USA einen Irak-Krieg ohne Uno-Mandat führen, ist das Gold dort am falschen Ort – dann muss es zurückgeholt werden.»

Er begründet: «Bei einer Krieg führenden Nation können wir doch nicht unser Gold aufbewahren. Und was ist, wenn uns die USA, die in der Irak-Frage skrupellos agieren, plötzlich mit dem Gold erpressen?» Günter fürchtet, dass die USA das Gold einfrieren könnten. «Das wäre ein klarer Verstoss gegen internationale Gesetze. Da müssten wir uns beim Gerichtshof in Strassburg (F) wehren», sagt der Berner SVP-Nationalrat und Finanzpolitiker Hermann Weyeneth.

Rückzug des Goldes. Das forderte vor fünf Jahren auch der Appenzeller CVP-Ständerat Carlo Schmid. Als in der Holocaust-Debatte eine US-Sammelklage gegen die Nationalbank drohte, verlangte er: «Alle Goldbestände in den USA müssen zurückgezogen werden.» Wenn das Gold denn wirklich dort ist. Sicher ist nur: Ursprünglich hatte die SNB 2600 Tonnen. Die Hälfte wird verkauft, bis Ende 2002 gingen 660 Tonnen weg. Täglich wird derzeit eine Tonne verkauft, für rund 15 000 Franken das Kilo

Wissen wir am Montag mehr? Kaum. Finanzminister Kaspar Villiger wird auch im Parlament nicht verraten, wo der Schatz aufbewahrt wird. Aus «Sicherheitsgründen». «Die haben doch etwas zu verbergen», argwöhnt Günter. Der Berner Finanzpolitiker Weyeneth spottet: «Die denken wohl, Napoleon komme wieder. Und er transportiere das Gold ab wie vor 200 Jahren die Berner Staatskasse.»

[ThaiGuru]

Das war übrigens die unglaubliche Antwort von Bundesrat, und Finanzminister Kaspar Villiger, auf die Frage eines Parlamentariers nach dem Verbleib, und den Lagerungsorten des schweizerischen Gold Reserven der Nationalbank SNB!

Aus der Basler Zeitung vom 11. März. 2003, Online Ausgabe.

«Wo diese Goldbarren nun genau liegen, kann ich Ihnen leide…


Wenn die Wahrheit eines Tages rauskommt, was die Verantwortlichen der "privaten" (Die Aktien der SNB werden an der CH Börse gehandelt!)Schweizerischen Nationalbank mit dem "Volksvermögen" Gold angestellt haben, dürfte diese obigen unverantwortlichen, und jeder Demokratie Hohn spottenden Worte in die Geschichte eingehen.

Gruss

Thaiguru

[Big-Apple]

Edelmetalle: Goldpreis schlägt zögernd Weg nach oben ein
11.08.2003

Der Goldpreis hat sich vergangene Woche nur schleppend von den Verlusten erholt, die er im Anschluss an den jüngsten Anstieg erlitten hatte. Erst zum Wochenschluss legte der Kurs deutlich zu.



Berg und Talfahrt

Bei insgesamt geringer Liquidität wurde das Metall die meiste Zeit im Bereich um die Marke von 350 $ je Feinunze gehandelt, ohne einen klaren Trend zu entwickeln. Zum Wochenschluss legte Gold mit dem schwächeren Dollar wieder deutlich zu und schloss in New York knapp über 355 $. Abgesehen von der Unterstützung, die vom Devisenhandel kam, beflügelten industrielle Käufe und eine wieder wachsende Nachfrage der Investoren das Metall.

Positive Signale kamen zudem von den Goldproduzenten. So plant der südafrikanische Konzern Anglogold nach einer erfolgreichen Übernahme von Ashanti kurzfristig einen Abbau der Absicherungsgeschäfte des in Ghana ansässigen Unternehmens. Ashantis Hedge-Bestände liegen derzeit bei 6,4 Millionen Unzen.

Ob es dazu tatsächlich kommt, ist noch offen, denn am Freitag gab Randgold Resources Ltd. ein Konkurrenzgebot für Ashanti ab, das die Offerte der Südafrikaner deutlich übersteigt. Anglogold zeigte sich aber skeptisch, ob Randgold die Offerte aufrecht erhalten kann.

Bei der weiteren Entwicklung des Goldpreises hängt viel von der Richtung des Euro-Dollar-Kurses ab. Der freundliche Schluss am Freitag hat aber zumindest den Weg für einen kurzfristigen Test der Widerstände bei 358 und 360 $ je Unze frei gemacht. Darüber hinaus müsste das Interesse privater und institutioneller Investoren anhalten oder steigen. Die Zeichen hierfür stehen nicht schlecht. In Deutschland wuchs zuletzt die Nachfrage nach Derivaten wie Goldoptionsscheinen und -zertifikaten kräftig.

Gewinnmitnahmen drückten Silber

Umfangreiche Gewinnmitnahmen drückten Silber vorübergehend bis auf 4,90 $ je Unze. Neben den Überhitzungserscheinungen belasteten mäßige Wirtschaftsdaten. Mit dem festeren Goldpreis stieg zwar das Interesse wieder, dennoch schloss Silber knapp unter 5 $ je Unze.


Platin konnte sich bei sinkenden Umsätzen von den starken Verlusten nur zeitweise etwas erholen und ging mit 675 bis 680 $ je Unze ins Wochenende und dürfte weiter in einer Spanne von 673 bis 685 $ gehandelt werden. Palladium litt unter verstärkten Abgaben. Die Notierungen fielen zeitweise um rund 10 $ auf ein Tief von 171 bis 175 $ je Unze.

Quelle: http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1060416731859.html?nv=hpm

Weitere Goldseiten: http://www.Gold-Pool.com
.

[ThaiGuru]

Die Schweizer National Bank und ihre Goldvorräte.

Part I.

Dieses Schreiben habe ich per E-Mail bereits am 27. Mai 2002…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

**********************************************************************************************************************

Sehr geehrter Herr Frank A. Meyer

Als jahrelanger Leser des Blick`s und Sonntags Blick, und speziell Ihrer eigenen Kommentare, die ich sehr schätze, möchte ich Sie gerne fragen warum Blick und Sonntagsblick zur Thematik Goldpreisanstieg der letzten vergangenen 5 Monate so beharrlich schweigt.

Wie Sie sicher wissen, verkauft die Nationalbank Teile ihrer Goldbestände, total 1300 Tonnen, von denen ca. 500 Tonnen bereits veräussert wurden, seit einiger Zeit im Rahmen des Washingtoner Abkommens, mit etwa einer Tonne pro Handelstag.

Der Nutzniesser dieser Goldverkäufe wird unter anderen, zum grossen Teil die schweizerische AHV sein.

Seit ende letzten Jahres stiegen die Goldpreise trotz der SNB Verkäufe unaufhaltsam an, und erreicht täglich neue Rekordmarken.

Im Spätsommer 2001 betrug der Goldpreis ca. 255.- US Dollar, am letzten Freitag waren es bereits 320.- Dollar pro Unze.

Die schweizerische Presselandschaft verschwieg diese Tatsache eigentlich bis am Sammstag 25. Mai 2002, als die NZZ die Stille brach, und einen grossen Artikel zum Goldgeschehen veröffentlichte. http://www.nzz.ch/2002/05/25/wi/page-kommentar86CHN.html Die Thematik SNB Goldverkäufe wurde aber auch nicht einmal Ansatzweise angesprochen.

Ich habe grosse Bedenken, dass die schw. Nationalbank SNB direkt dazu beiträgt, dass die Goldpreise nicht noch viel mehr gestiegen sind, indem sie als zur Zeit einzige Quelle von Bedeutung, einmal abgesehen von den Goldminen, physisches Gold in steigende Goldpreise verkauft, und dadurch die Schweiz als Ganzes, repektive unsere AHV als Nutzniesser des Erlöses dieser Goldverkäufe, um einen grösseren Ertrag bringt.

Hätte die National Bank angenommener Weise, nur in den letzt…

Dabei bin ich von der sehr unwahrscheinlichen Rechnung ausgegangen, dass die von mir angenommene zeitweise Einstellung der SNB Goldverkäufe, keinen zusätzlichen Goldpreisanstieg bewirkt hätte. Realistisch gesehen dürfte aber eine vorübergehende Einstellung der SNB Goldverkäufe einen massiven weiteren Goldpreisanstieg bewirkt haben, und somit auch der entgangene Ertrag für die Schweiz, um ein vielfaches der von mir genannten 100 Millionen Franken betragen haben, und das auch nur gerade für die Zeit in diesen letzten 5 Monaten verkauften ca. 100 Tonnen = 3215075 Troy Unzen Gold.

Bei einem richtigen managen der restlichen anstehenden ca. 800 Tonnen SNB Goldverkäufe, wären ohne Probleme, meiner Ansicht nach, weit über 1 Milliarde Franken Mehrertag möglich, als es unter der jetzigen SNB Verkaufsregie vermutlich der Fall sein wird.

Die noch ausstehenden SNB Gold Verkäufe von ca. 800 Tonnen, entsprechen in etwa einem Drittel der gesammten Welt Neugold Produktion eines ganzen Jahres, von ca. 2400 Tonnen . Wenn es nach dem bekannten Finanzexperten John Hathaway geht, der mit seiner Goldanalyse "The Investment Case For Gold" weltweit für Aufsehen gesorgt hat, indem er einen Goldpreis von mehr als 1200.- US Dollar pro Unze für realistisch hält, gehen würde, könnte der Schaden zu Lasten der Schweiz auch weit über 10 Milliarden Franken betragen.

http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=24

Für mich selbst sieht es so aus, als wenn die schweizerische…

Und dann gibt es noch etwas Bemerkenswertes im Falle der SNB Goldreserven, über das meines Wissens noch keine Zeitung in der Schweiz berichtet hat.

Die Schweizer Nationalbank hat mindestens Teile ihrer Goldre…

Darin sind Zinseinnahmen aus solchen "Vermietungen" ersichtlich. Es wäre doch auch einmal interessant zu wissen, an wen denn die SNB unser Volksvermögen Gold vermietet hat. Die "Mieter" dieses Goldes wurden nähmlich nach meinem Wissenstand noch nie bekanntgegeben. Auch die Mengen dieser "Goldausleihungen" schweben im Dunkeln.

Es "mietet" doch wohl vermutlich niemand Gold von der SNB, und bezahlt noch Zinsen dafür, um dieses Gold nur an einem anderen Ort zu lagern. Es ist desshalb stark zu vermuten, dass dieses "ausgeliehene" SNB Gold, schon längstens vom "Mieter" verkauft, oder anderweitig verwendet wurde, und das Gold gar nicht mehr an die SNB physisch zurückgegeben werden könnte, ohne dass der/die? "Mieter" einen riesigen Verlust erleiden wird/werden, falls der "Mieter" es heute bei stark steigenden Goldpreisen am Spot-Markt zurückkaufen müsste. Ganz abgesehen davon, dass je nach der Menge Gold die zurückgekauft werden müsste, der Preis noch viel stärker steigen könnte.

Herr Roth von der National Bank sagte kürzlich in einem Fernseh Interview, dass Gold keine Zukunft habe, und in der heutigen Zeit nicht mehr gebraucht würde, darum werde es von den Zentralbanken verkauft. Die Frage warum denn Gold zur Zeit nun andauernd teurer werde, beantwortete er damit, dass es keine fundamentalen Gründe gebe, die diesen Preisanstieg rechtfertigen könnten.

Im Interview ebenfalls nicht erwähnt wurde die Tatsache, dass weltweit nachweislich unvorstellbar riesige Summen in Gold Derivative investiert sind, und dass zur Zeit gerade pro Tag an der COMEX ca. bis zu 160000 Goldkontrakte gehandelt werden. Ein einziger Goldkontrakt entspricht einer Menge von 5000 Unzen Gold. Wenn man weiss, dass auf dieser Welt nur maximal ca. 140000 Tonnen physisches Gold existieren. (Produziertes Gold). Erscheint eine Tages Handelmenge Gold von fast 25000 Tonnen Gold doch schon sehr erstaunlich. Dass es sich hierbei nicht um physisches Gold handelt dürfte eigenlich auf der Hand liegen.

Dass nachweislich weltweit bereits mindestens zwei volle Weltjahresgoldproduktionen vorverkauft sind (geshortet), und irgenwann ausgeliefert werden müssen, bei einem nachweislich jetzt schon über 8 Jahre bestehenden Nachfrageüberhang beim Gold, vergass Herr Roth auch zu erwähnen. Dass auf Grund der sich letztes Jahr auf einem 20 Jahres Tief gehandelten Goldpreises, die weltweite physische Goldproduktion einen Tiefpunkt erreicht hat, das erwähnte Herr Roth auch nicht.

Als Beispiel wie sich diese Gold Tiefstpreise auswirken können, habe ich Ihnen einen Link zu einem Artikel der Zeitung The Sun Harald & The Sydney Morning Harald beigefügt. http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/26/1022243290609.html

Ein an der in Südafrika stattgefundenen GATA Konferenz wurde dieser interessante Bericht zum Goldgeschehen vorgestellt: http://www.gata.org/veneroso_presentation.html

Dass zum Beispiel die Banken UBS und CSFB ganz massiv in sehr risikoreiche Goldderivativ Geschäfte involviert sind, und damit in den letzten Jahren ganz erhebliche Summen daran verdient haben, und das die SNB auf Grund der "Vermietung" dieser "Materie ohne Zukunft", Zinsen erwirtschaftet hat, vergass er auch zu erwähnen.

Entschuldigen Sie bitte den Ausdruck Herr Meyer, aber irgend…

Ich würde mich über eine Antwort von Ihnen sehr freuen.


Hochachtungsvoll


xxxxx


E-Mail: [e-mail]

[ThaiGuru]

Die Schweizer National Bank und ihre Goldvorräte.

Part II

Der Herr Frank A. Meyer hat es erstaunlicher Weise nicht ein…

Gruss

ThaiGuru

**********************************************************************************************************************

From: <[e-mail]>
To: <[e-mail]>
Subject:
Date: Freitag, 31. Mai 2002 21:23

Sehr geehrter Herr X

Herr Meyer hat mir Ihr Schreiben zur Beantworung weitergeleitet, was ich hiermit gerne tue.

Darf ich etwas ausholen? Es gibt seit langem immer wieder Stimmen, die dem Gold goldene Zeiten prophezeien. Ich mag mich zum Beispiel gut daran erinnern, wie in der zweiten Hälfte der 80er Jahre - ich war damals Wirtschaftsredaktor bei der Weltwoche - die Gold-Fundis das Gelbe Metall
über jeden Klee lobten. Ihre Prognosen haben sich aber nicht bewahrheitet.

Leider ist die Schweizerische Nationalbank viel zu lange auf ihrem Gold sitzengeblieben. Hätte sie früher verkauft und den Erlös in andere Anlageformen investiert, wäre sie -und damit wir - heute um Dutzende Milliarden Franken reicher. Die Verschleuderung des Volksvermögens hat
bereits stattgefunden, aber nicht, weil man Gold zu früh verkauft hätte, sondern zu spät.

Sie sehen, ich bin kein Gold-Fanatiker. Vor zwei Wochen schrieb ich in meiner Geldkolumne (sie ist für Anleger gedacht) folgendes:

Mit den Gold-Fanatikern ist es wie mit der Grippe. Sie sind unausrottbar, und von Zeit zu Zeit suchen sie uns heim. Gegenwärtig sind sie wieder auf dem Vormarsch. Denn das gelbe Metall ist seit dem Herbst letzten Jahres um mehr als 20 Prozent gestiegen. Die Gold-Fonds konnten noch
stärker zulegen. Sie investieren nicht in das physische Metall, sondern in Firmen, die sich mit der Produktion, dem Handel und der Verarbeitung von Gold befassen. Und deren Aktien schossen förmlich in die Höhe.

Höchste Zeit also, sich vom Goldrausch anstecken zu lassen? Wenn man langfristig denkt und wenn die letzten 80 Jahre eine gute Referenz für die Zukunft sind, dann gibts nur eines: Finger weg vom Gold!

Kaufte jemand 1926 eine Unze oder ein Kilogramm Gold und liess es liegen, so nahm natürlich der Wert in Franken und Rappen seither zu. Aber die Wertsteigerung hielt nicht einmal mit der Teuerung Schritt. Man kann heute mit der gleichen Menge Gold weniger andere Güter kaufen als damals. Gold ist kein Inflationsschutz gewesen, wie man weitherum glaubte. Von einer realen Rendite ganz zu schweigen.

Das ist die langfristige Erfahrung. Kurz- und mittelfristig kann das Gold sehr wohl massiv an Wert gewinnen. Kommt dazu: Sein Preis entwickelt
sich sehr unabhängig. Im Jargon der Statistiker heisst das: Die Korrelation zwischen Gold und zum Beispiel Aktien ist gering. Fallen die Aktienbörsen, macht Gold die Bewegung nicht mit. Vielleicht steigt sein Preis sogar.

Wer Gold-Fonds ins Depot legt, glättet damit die Wertschwankungen seines Vermögens. Wie viel Prozent eines Portefeuilles sollen sie aber ausmachen? Ich würde sagen: fünf Prozent. Es sei denn, jemand leidet am Alptraum, dass nächstens der Himmel runterfällt. Dann kann er ja auf
10 oder 15 Prozent gehen.

Soweit meine Geld-Kolumne.

Niemand weiss, wie es mit dem Gold-Preis weitergeht. Ich schliesse nicht aus, dass er weiter steigt. Vielleicht wird er aber wieder fallen. Auch die Nationalbank kann die Preisentwicklung nicht voraussehen. Weil Gold in der
Vergangenheit ein katastrophales Geschäft für sie war, hat man mit einem breiten Konsens beschlossen, einen Teil der Vorräte zu verkaufen. Andere Zentralbanken entschlossen sich schon viel früher zu diesem Schritt.

Die Zentralbanken koordinieren die Gold-Verkäufe unter einander, um den Preis nicht zu stark zu drücken. Innerhalb des abgesprochenen Fahrplans ist die Schweizerischen Nationalbank frei, die Verkäufe zu terminieren. Sie kann sie und will sie aber jetzt nicht auf ewig sistieren.

Sie zitieren den Goldexperten John Hathaway. Es wäre mir aber ein Leichtes, andere Goldexperten zu zitieren, die gegensätzlicher Meinung sind. Bekommen sie und nicht Hathaway Recht, sollte die Nationalbank eigentlich auch noch die restlichen Goldbestände verkaufen. Eher heute als morgen.

Übrigens: Sowohl andere Zentralbanken wie auch Banken «vermieten» Gold. Ein fauler Hund ist da nicht begraben.

In der Hoffnung, Ihnen mit diesen Ausführungen gedient zu haben, verbleibe ich mit freundlichen Grüssen

Silvio Bertolami

Leiter Wirtschaftsredaktion
SonntagsBlick
Dufourstrasse 23
8008 Zürich
Telefon [phone]
Telefax [phone]
mailto:[e-mail]

[konradi]

.

... na, das war doch eine sehr freundliche Antwort von Herrn Bertolami, Thai !

es ist doch eher die absolute Ausnahme, so eine individuelle und detaillierte Antwort auf einen Leserbrief zu erhalten. Das er die Welt mit anderen Augen sieht und den goldbugs eine sektiererhafte Verblendung unterstellt ist doch nun wirklich nichts Neues, und so gesehen eher völlig "normal" – oder ?

Gruß Konradi

[ThaiGuru]

@konradi

Feundlich im Ton war die Anwort sicherlich, im Inhalt war sie es sicher nicht. Ausführlich war die Antwort zwar, doch auf die Vorwürfe der Volksvermögensverschleuderung, und die Vorwürfe von mindestens indirekter Preismanipulation durch diese Gold Verkäufe der SNB zum damaligen Zeitpunkt, und der daraus vermutlich resultierenden Mindereinnahmen für die Schweizer, ist sie nicht eingegangen, im Gegenteil, inhaltlich war die Antwort so nichtssagend, wie ein Statement des Gold Cabals. Was mir Bertolami erklärte, mag seiner Ueberzeugung zum damaligen Zeitpunkt entsprochen haben. Ob er heute immer noch daran glaubt, dass Gold keine Zukunft hat, und die SNB alles zum Besten der Schweiz abgewickelt hat, oder gerade zur Zeit immer noch abwickelt, entzieht sich leider meiner Kenntnis.

Werde ihn vielleicht bei Gelegenheit danach fragen.

Seine damalige Antwort jedoch enthält in sich selbst gegensächliche Behauptungen, und die absolut falsche Feststellung, dass Gold für die SNB und die Schweiz in der Vergangenheit ein schlechtes Geschäft gewesen sei. Denn gerade wegen diesen Goldvorräten hat die Schweiz, und speziell den Schweizerfranken, der Ruf von Beständigkeit, Sicherheit, und inneren Wert, jahrzentelang begleitet. Davon hat die Schweiz ernorm profitiert. Auf die Geschäfte, die die SNB durch eben diese eigentlich dem Schweizervolk gehörenden Goldvorräte machen konnte, will ich hier gar nicht erst eingehen.

Es kann ja wohl auch nicht Deine Absicht sein, Aeusserungen von Bertolani, Gold Bugs in die Ecke von Fanatikern zu stellen, als "normal" bezeichnen zu wollen.

Uebrigens beantwortet Blick meistens alle Leser Briefe, daran ist gar nichts ausergewöhnlich.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[goldSHORTER]

alder der käse ist ja auch absolut überflüssig

[ThaiGuru]

Die Richtung stimmt!

[goldSHORTER]

ALDER der käse ist ja auch absolut überflüssig

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.webfin.com/en/news/news.html/?id=37161

Kinross Gold to issue common shars

Canada (Aug. 11, 2003 - 11:06)

TORONTO (CP) -- Kinross Gold Corp. (K) is raising more than $185 million by issuing common shares.

The Toronto-based gold producer said Monday it had struck an underwriting agreement with underwriters to issue 20 million common shares from the company`s treasury at $9.26 each.

The financing will result in gross proceeds of at least $185.2 million. Kinross said it will use the money to repurchase the company`s outstanding issue of convertible debentures.

The financing is expected to close by Aug. 28.

Kinross shares were halted Monday pending news of the financing deal.

[goldSHORTER]

ALDER DU WILLST SPEKULANT SEIN THAI GURU

SOLANG DU HIER DIESEN METERLANGEN DÜNNPFIFF POSTETS

KANN GOLD NUR FALLEN

KANN DOCH EH KEINE SAU ENGLISCH HIER UND DANN AUCH NOCH SO LANG

WENN HIER WIRKLICHE PROFIS AM WERK WÄHREN MÜßT ICH DIESEN METERLANGEN QATSCH NICHT MEHR LESEN UND FÜR WENN VORALLEM

WER KEINE AHNUNG HAT MACHT AUCH MIT DIESEN ENDLOS TEXTEN KEIN GELD


DU SOLLTEST FÜR NE ZEITUNG SCHREIBEN ABER SPEKULATION IS NIX FÜR DICH


JUNGE

[Gamsbichler]

Könnte goldshorter etwa wardriver sein ????

[ThaiGuru]

Diese Aktie besitzt zwar vermutlich ausser mir selbst eh keiner, weil es sich um einen von mir stark empfohlenen Titel handelt, trotzdem die neueste Meldung dazu!



http://www2.ccnmatthews.com/scripts/ccn-release.pl?/current/…



RIVER GOLD MINES LTD.

TSX SYMBOL: RIV

AUGUST 11, 2003 - 10:28 ET

River Gold Resumes Production And Posts Strong Second
Quarter Results

TORONTO, ONTARIO--

Production Statistics Six Months Ended Three Months Ended
June 30 June 30
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2003 2002 2003 2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Ounces Produced 41,500 43,700 23,600 21,600
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonnes Milled 140,400 146,200 70,200 73,800
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Recovered Grade (g/t) 9.2 9.3 10.4 9.1
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
June 30, December 31,
2003 2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Broken Ore Inventory
(tonnes) 69,000 83,000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

cont...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
HIGHLIGHTS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Results Six Months Ended Three Months Ended
$ x 000 or $ Per Share June 30 June 30
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2003 2002 2003 2002
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenue $20,428 $20,989 $11,424 $10,617
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold Price Realized ($US) 348 303 347 315
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Cash Cost/Ounce ($US) 256 194 210 201
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Earnings 773 376 1,925 106
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Earnings Per Share 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow 4,008 6,428 3,620 3,259
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Cash Flow Per Share 0.11 0.17 0.10 0.09
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

/T/

River Gold Mines resumed production August 8, 2003 after
replacing two key transformers and repairing power transmission
lines damaged in a severe electrical storm July 20. Logistical
considerations delayed the installation of the large transformer
beyond original expectations. Nevertheless, River Gold believes
it has sufficient operating flexibility to absorb the impact of
this event and maintains its production forecast of 75,000 ounces
for 2003.

Gold production in the second quarter was 23,600 ounces at a
recovered grade of 10.4 grams of gold per tonne. This generated
earnings of $1.9 million and cash flow of $3.6 million. This
brings production for the first six months of 2003 to 41,500
ounces at a recovered grade of 9.2 grams of gold per tonne
generating earnings of $0.77 million and cash flow of $4.0
million.

Costs were up significantly as they have been in the gold mining
industry generally. Second quarter results were positively
influenced by increased grade of ore treated and negatively
influenced by a much stronger Cdn$/US$ exchange rate. The
foreign exchange impact on second quarter costs amounted to about
a US$30 per ounce increase compared to the second quarter of
2002. The first quarter results were influenced by extreme cold
weather, soaring energy costs and below average grades. In the
second quarter, energy costs and consumption eased and management
took steps to limit exposure to extreme seasonal electricity spot
market costs.

Exploration and development activity will accelerate in the
second half of the year. Underground development is accessing
new mining areas at Eagle River and establishing platforms for
exploration drilling. A surface drill has been mobilized to
provide delineation drilling of new zones identified last year.

Seasonal open pit mining at the Mishi-Magnacon complex will
resume and dewatering of the existing underground workings
continues.

As always, we remain unhedged and receive the full benefit of
higher gold prices. We are confident the gold price will
outperform the Canadian dollar going forward.

River Gold has been producing gold in the Wawa Camp of northern
Ontario since 1995. Its shares trade on the TSX Exchange under
the symbol "RIV" and there are currently 41.3 million shares
outstanding.

[goldSHORTER]

UND DANN AUCH NOCH DAS ANPREISEN DER TITEL DIE MAN SELBST IM DEPOT HAT


KOSTOLANY WUSTE SCHON WARUM ER IMMER DIE KLAPPE GEHALTEN HAT NUR EIN NARR ERZÄHLT WAS ER SELBST IM DEPOT HAT

[Thuffir]

!

Dieser Beitrag wurde vom System automatisch gesperrt. Bei Fragen wenden Sie sich bitte an [e-mail]

[Cashlover]

@thai-guru,

abgesehen davon, dass, in der Retrospektive betrachtet, Herr Bertolami natürlich irgendwie Recht hat mit seiner Argumentation, vielen Dank erstmal für dein Engagement, bezüglich der Frage des Verbleibes der helvetischen Goldreserven

Sollte sich der Goldpreis auch nur annähernd in die von uns gewünschte Richtung bewegen, werden unangenehme Fragen bezüglich des Zeitpunktes der Veräußerungen, von alleine kommen und Herr Bertolami (u.a) werden feststellen müssen, dass ihre Reaktion viel zu träge war.
Viele Investmentbanker in der Schweiz haben die Aktienhausse in den 90er Jahren aus den gleichen Trägheitsgründen, teilweise verschlafen, was ich zumindest aus eigener Erfahrung berichten kann.

Man muß wohl konstatieren, dass sich die Bankergilde in der Schweiz jetzt auch zunehmend aus Jüngern des dot-com-Zeitalters zusammensetzt.
Genauso wie die Wirtschaftsredakteure einiger Printmedien.

Auf die Frage, die du, Thai-Guru und auch andere hier im Board schon öfter gestellt hast, nämlich warum in drei-Teufelsnamen, es denn überhaupt KÄUFER für das angeblich so wertlose Edelmetall gibt (vor allem in den Mengen, die seit Jahren mal von der BoE mal von anderen) auf den Markt geworfen werden, wirst du wohl kaum eine so schnelle Antwort erhalten.

mfg

[ThaiGuru]

@BordMod

Kannst Du bitte diesen Werbe Fritzen User "Thuffir" sammt seinem "WOW - wer will ein Megageiles FOTOHANDY gewinnen???" bitte aus diesen Thread entfernen?

Das selbe Fotohandy Werbe Posting hat "Thuffir" heute übrigens in weitere 10 Threads quer im WBoard gepostet.

Vielen Dank

Thaiguru

[hpoth]

@ ThaiGuru

Du täuschst Dich, ich habe diese Aktie River-Goldmines auch im Depot.Gruß hpoth

[hpoth]

#6808
Meiner Meinung ist GoldSHORTER wardriver, wer sonst gibt solchen Blödsinn von sich.mfg hpoth

[ThaiGuru]

@hpoth

#6814

Schön dass ich mich getäuscht habe!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=563&fArticleId=…

COMPANY NEWS

Western Areas` profit slumps 42% despite growing bullion revenues

August 11, 2003

By Reuters

Johannesburg - After-tax attributable profit at Western Areas slid 42 percent in the second quarter against the first quarter, the gold producer said on Friday, with earnings stung in part by lower income from derivative transactions.

Profit fell to R42.8 million and headline earnings dipped 38 percent from the first quarter to 36c a share in the three months to June.

In a statement the mid-cap company said the fall in earnings came despite achieving a 39 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in gold revenues with production up 15 percent.

It said the fall in profit could be partly attributed to lower income of R13.4 million on derivative transactions, down from R59.7 million in the first quarter.

Cash costs fell 6 percent to R65 980 per kilogramme and chief executive Brett Kebble said further improvements were possible by bringing down costs at its South Deep joint venture.

"South Deep ... is probably the only operation that will move down the cost curve, in marked contrast to the rest of the industry. We believe that it is possible for South Deep to become the country`s lowest-cost producer once in full production," he said.

Western Areas owns 50 percent of South Deep while Canada`s Placer Dome has the other half.

Western Areas shares gained 5c to R39.90 on a marginally firmer overall market on Friday.

[006]

river gold mines hab ich auch im depot-weil ungehedged!

006

[ThaiGuru]

@006

Toll, jetzt sind wir schon drei an der Zahl!

[ThaiGuru]

Wie wir wissen, kaufen die Japaner massiv Dollars gegen Yen, trotzdem fällt der Dollar doch immer wieder in die Richtung, wo diese Fiat Papier Währung auch hingehört.

Nach unten!!!!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.vwd.de/vwd/news.htm?id=20694799&navi=news&sektion…

Schweiz/SNB dürfte etwa 9,9 t Gold veräußert haben

Zürich (vwd) - Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) dürfte in ihrem bis zum 8. August reichenden Berichtszeitraum etwa 7,5 t Gold verkauft haben, wie der World Gold Council am Montag vorrechnet. Damit beliefen sich die Goldverkäufe der SNB seit Mai 2000 auf etwa 846 t. Im Mai 2000 hatte die SNB ein Programm zur Veräusserung von 1.300 t Gold aus Reserven gestartet. Die Verkäufe finden im Rahmen einer Übereinkunft von 15 europäischen Notenbanken vom 26. September 1999 statt.
vwd/awp/11.8.2003/hab

11.08.2003, 19:14

*****************************************************************************************************************************************

Dieser Meldung nach zu urteilen, weiss das World Gold Council auch nichts genaues zu den SNB Gold Verkäufen, anders ist diese Pressemeldung mit zwei komplet verschiedenen Gold Mengenangaben wohl nicht zu erklären.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://62.146.24.165/news.php?show=130245

11.08. 19:58

Neue Jahreshochs vor allem im Goldsektor

(©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de)

Nachfolgend eine Auflistung einiger Aktien, die heute neue Jahreshochs erreicht haben. Die Liste ist nach dem bisher gehandelten Volumen sortiert.

[ThaiGuru]

Der Anstieg bei den Südafrikanischen Minen kommt nicht in erster Linie vom gestiegenen Gold Preis, sonder weil der südafrikanische Rand heute angefangen hat an Wert gegenüber dem Dollar zu verlieren. Falls sich dieser Trend fortsetzen sollte, die SA Regierung wird mit Sicherheit auch noch etwas dazu beitragen, können wir uns auf weiter steigende Notierungen, unserer "goldenen Südafrikaner" freuen!

Gruss

ThaiGuru

DURBAN DEEP (NasdaqSCROOY)

Last Trade

3:34pm · 2.56

Change +0.16 (+6.67%)

Prev Cls 2.40
Open 2.45

Volume 5,620,314

Day`s Range
2.44 - 2.57

[niemandweiss]

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/ackerman081203_go…

[ThaiGuru]

August 11 - Gold $361.70 up $5.50 - Silver $4.98 unchanged

Gold’s Surge Leads Dollar Down Again/Shares FLYING!

"I am in search of a one-armed economist so that the guy cou…[/url ]Harry S Truman

(Quote for Greenspan and his Fed tomorrow)

Once again we see gold exhibit strength, independent of the dollar action. Gold was firm all evening long, weakened into the Comex opening and then surged on the opening, running up $5 in the early going. The dollar was trading higher at the time and then weakened as gold ran up. The dollar eventually fell from a high of 96.70 to 95.98, down .59 and the euro rose from 112.54 to 113.42, up .60.

For gold’s bull market to be significant, this is just the sort of gold price action we need to see. Gold needs to be a bull market for all investors around the world, not just those who buy in dollars. The gold run-up the past year has not benefited many physical gold buyers who have paid for their gold in local currencies.

Then, of course, there is the other reason it is so important to see gold move irrespective to the dollar action. The gold market is all about the physical market versus The Gold Cartel. Until the crooks are beaten or overpowered, gold will never make a big move and hold it. The bad guys are too short and have too much at stake to let gold rise. Their problem is they can only mobilize so much gold at given points of time to meet the soaring demand. The price action tells us how much trouble they are having. At some point, they will lose control of their manipulation. It is inevitable. The strong gold price action, along with the soaring gold share prices, steadying silver, and accompanied by a very weak bond market, suggests that day is coming closer and closer.

Crooks, bad guys, evil – too strong a description of The Gold Cartel crowd? I think not. Look at what Goldman Sachs and friends did to gold a week ago Friday ahead of the US Government note auction. They blatantly took gold down over $8 (after brutalizing it all week to begin with), doing most of the damage in the last half-hour. Gold has risen $15 and every day since then. How about the traders who were forced to exit their long gold futures positions, just so our government could protect their auction? Was that fair? Was it legal for the bullion banks to pocket ordained money in their accounts according to the Sherman anti-trust laws?

Heck no!

Gold continues to work its way through a giant wedge formation (discussed in past MIDAS commentaries). If spot takes out $366, look out above. We should get a powerful move up to close to $400 and it could come in short order.

Weekly Gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and other bullion dealers wer…

The gold open interest only rose 2984 contracts on the rally to 204,960. Gold is only $5 off highs of a few weeks ago, but the open interest is a hefty 36,000 contracts off its high. Plenty of room for the specs to pile in and overpower cabal forces.

Platinum hit $701 today. Won’t be as long as some people think before we are talking gold and that kind of number.

Will we get a Commercial Signal Failure in silver? The open …

It looks like bonds are sinking again after a brief short-covering rally:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

The 30-year closed at 106.29, down ¾. Part of the "Paradigm Shift" of new gold buyers/gold company shareholders is coming from disillusioned bond owners and it is only the beginning salvo of buying. The more volatile the bond market becomes and the more rates soar, safety conscious investors will turn to the gold complex. The recent wave of new buying could become TIDAL in nature.

www.lemetropolecafe.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

We got that breakaway gap I was looking for:

Daily Gold:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/83

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and other bullion dealers wer…

The gold open interest only rose 2984 contracts on the rally to 204,960. Gold is only $5 off highs of a few weeks ago, but the open interest is a hefty 36,000 contracts off its high. Plenty of room for the specs to pile in and overpower cabal forces.

Platinum hit $701 today. Won’t be as long as some people think before we are talking gold and that kind of number.

Will we get a Commercial Signal Failure in silver? The open …

It looks like bonds are sinking again after a brief short-covering rally:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/93

The 30-year closed at 106.29, down ¾. Part of the "Paradigm Shift" of new gold buyers/gold company shareholders is coming from disillusioned bond owners and it is only the beginning salvo of buying. The more volatile the bond market becomes and the more rates soar, safety conscious investors will turn to the gold complex. The recent wave of new buying could become TIDAL in nature.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Monday, August 11, 2003

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.69, PM $5.74, with world gold at $357.25 and $357.40. Adequate for legal imports – quite a resilient performance considering gold has risen some $7 in three days. The rupee closed at an import-facilitating 35-month high today and the stockmarket at a 29-month peak; confidence in the world’s single largest gold consumer is running high.

The Istanbul Gold Exchange reported imports last week at 8.9…

(The Shanghai Gold Exchange, on the other hand, slipped to a small (80c) discount to world gold this morning. For a market which is supposed to be structurally insulated from the world, it displays suspiciously close and sensitive tracking to the free gold price.)

TOCOM was open this morning, although many Japanese are away. On volume equal to 33,052 Comex contracts (85% up on Friday) the active contract rose 10 yen and world gold went out $1.30 above the NY close. On balance, however, it seems that the impetus in the gold price in Tokyo time came from offshore: open interest fell the equivalent of 291 Comex lots. There is some suggestion that expectations of BOJ intervention to hold down the yen might trigger stronger gold futures buying by the public, for whom this is an efficient way to short the yen. (On Friday NY traded 41,623 contracts, with open interest rising by 2,984.)

Generally, commentators this morning are impressed by gold’s willingness to rise in the face of a reasonably firm dollar. Actually, as noted before, there is no particular reason why gold should track the Euro, the Euro zone not being a key physical consumer. Anyone who scans the more alert news sources can see that the Bond market’s apparently going over a watershed has created great anxiety about the future, the impact of the losses created, and the wisdom of the Fed. See:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1016104,00.h…

"Long-term yields have risen by 1% since mid-June, back to more normal levels, but pushing the rate on a 15-year mortgage up from about 4.5% to more than 6%.

Unsurprisingly, remortgaging has collapsed, and with it, some worry, the fledgling US recovery. Stephen Lewis, at Monument Securities in London, says there was a fatal flaw at the heart of the Fed`s policy…. The mortgage-backed market is now one and half times the size of the treasuries market, raising questions about whether risks can be safely laid off on to government debt.

Mr Lewis doubts they can. The Fed, he says, has created a "self-destruct" mechanism at the heart of the US financial s…

and

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/Sto…

"Bond market volatility could force the closure of some hedg…

and

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=colu…


"why isn`t the Fed crystal clear in its conveyances to the m…

One noted bullion in his weekly comments on the CFTC data, observes that several other commodities have seen substantial moves and close to record Spec longs building up, and then raises a valid point:

"Price fell $15 on 54 tonnes of large spec liquidation; it h…

Of course, half the loss in the down week came the last 20 minutes of Comex trading that Friday: further demonstrating what an efficient raid that was. But it is not news that gold has peculiar top side resistance: the news is in the summer of ’03, it appears capable of overcoming this obstacle.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW (9217, up 26) and DOG (1661, up 17) refuse to go down. It won’t be a pretty sight when they finally do.

The news about China dumping Treasuries is no accident. This is how the Chinese are making their point about US pressure to revalue their currency. Who needs an army when they can bury us by dumping our Treasuries? Wouldn’t surprise me if they aren’t one of the big gold buyers right now too!

China may cut U.S. debt holdings on weak dollar

BEIJING, Aug 11 (Reuters) - China may opt to reduce its holdings of U.S. treasuries and other debt in response to the weakening dollar and invest a higher proportion of its foreign exchange reserves in the euro and yen, analysts said on Monday.

"To be frank, there may be considerations for an adjustment …

China invests the bulk its foreign exchange reserves, which have hit $346.5 billion, in dollar assets, but the government has never published details of its holdings.

The weak dollar could dilute the value of China`s foreign exchange reserves invested in U.S. treasuries and other debt, measured by currencies such as the euro or yen.
"On the other hand, if the United States continues to ground… Zhao said.

A central bank spokeswoman declined to comment on the report seen by market sources in New York that Chinese officials planned to tell U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that it may reconsider its hefty buying of U.S. treasuries and agency debts if Washington persists in calling for a yuan revaluation.

Snow is expected to visit China this year. "I`m unaware of such a plan," the spokeswoman said. "China will definitely not change the policy on the renminbi."
A spokeswoman for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange also declined to comment.

THREATS

But analysts say Beijing was unlikely to counter U.S. criticism with threats.

"The Chinese may not be happy with U.S. pressure, but I don`… said a senior U.S. forex dealer based in Shanghai, who declined to be identified.

The yuan, also called the renminbi, is virtually pegged in a tight range around 8.278 to the dollar, drawing criticism from U.S. and other foreign officials that the policy gives China an unfair trade advantage by making its exports cheaper.

A report by geopolitical advisory group Medley Global Advisers quoted Chinese officials as saying they had not sold any U.S. paper and had continued buying those securities, sources in New York quoted the report as saying. Chinese officials would tell Snow they may reconsider purchases of U.S. treasuries and debt sold by the two biggest U.S. mortgage financing agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, unless the United States cools its criticism, they said.

Chinese officials have shrugged off repeated calls from the United States, Japan and South Korea to revalue the yuan, vowing to keep the currency stable.

Last week, Premier Wen Jiabao defended the fixed yuan policy, saying it was good for China and the global economy. Through May, Japan and China were the two largest holders of U.S. treasuries, with $428.6 billion and $121.7 billion respectively, according to Treasury data. ($1=8.277 yuan)
Reporting by Kevin Yao and Lu Jianxin

There are too many of these Chinese bond/currency stories for it not to be a very serious and deliberate ploy on their part.

GATA’s Mike Bolser:

Hi Bill:

The Fed added $7.25 Billion to the repo pool today raising it to $22.5 Billion. Patience is certainly a virtue while we wait for the DOW to topple as the Fed removes it`s open market support.

The mid-Summer lull in volume may have something to do with the ease with which the primary dealers can continue their DOW levitation act. In any event, below is a link to the S&P futures in near real-time with a volume indicator chart. We can clearly see when heavy support rushes in to catch the S&P futures. It is doubtless similar with the DOW.

The DOW is up 30 at this hour [10:30 AM EDT].
This week is crucial in the gold war as the gold cartel has so far failed to credibly knock back the gold price and with the dollar up a bit last week the Dollar Index Value of Gold continues to hold right at the battle line of DIVG=323.

Best,
Mike

Why gold? Stories such as the one below can only fuel greater and greater demand for bullion:

Hi Bill,

Thought you’ll like this one (although publication is from July 15)

Best,
Eric

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/EG15Dk01.html

"Then, turning truly apocalyptic, Wood predicts that by the …

(Christopher Wood, global emerging-markets equities strategist for CLSA Hong Kong.)

Once more we have talk about market manipulation from the mainstream. But, when it comes to gold, these same folks dig their head into the sand and look the other way no matter what compelling evidence is presented. What is galling is GATA HAS THE EVIDENCE, yet the establishment folk still won’t deal with one of the most flagrant and blatantly obvious market manipulations in US history:

Fed crediblity questioned after bond market rout

Fri August 8, 2003 03:21 PM ET

By Tim Ahmann

WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The blame game in the wake of the bloodiest U.S. bond market rout in nearly a decade is in full swing and many of the fingers are pointed at the Federal Reserve.

Accusations are flying that the central bank overplayed its concerns on deflation in a manipulative effort to push long-term interest rates lower to goose the economy.
Now the Fed has been "caught out" -- as Melvyn Krauss of the Hoover Institution put it in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Friday -- some argue its credibility has been damaged.

"The Fed whipped up a positive frenzy about deflation," said James Grant of Grant`s Interest Rate Observer. "To my mind not the least of the sins of the Fed in this per…

-END-

US counterfeit money:

Bill,

A friend of mine who is a Veterinarian, has a friend who is a banker. We were having dinner and solving the world`s problems and he said that the banker told him that around 10% of the ONE "dollar" bills are fake and that there is a lot of fake FRNs (most people call FRNs "Dollars") and that there is a real problem. You can spot Fake bills by holding them under a black light. They appear bright white. We went back to his clinic and he got out he day`s cash receipts to check them. To my surprise we found 3 fake $1 out of about 20 bills and one fake $10 out of 2 bills. We checked the $10 under a microscope and the quality is more obvious. I would NEVER have spotted the fakes in my day to day buying and selling. What this makes obvious is that anything one man can make one machine to reproduce another can also. No exceptions.

As you know no man can make gold or silver.

Rick

GATA’s work is gradually spreading all over the world:

Dear Bill,

A few months ago the first gold exploration company in India was listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
A few days ago this company launched its new website.
I thought you would like to know that GATA gets a valuable credit. See here:

http://www.deccangoldmines.com/gold_future.asp

I will ask the company to put up a link to your Lemetropolecafe and Gata’s websites.
Also I will endeavour to get them to sponsor GATA.
I am a significant shareholder.
With great admiration for your tireless work and dedication to revealing the truth.

Cary Coutelas

Thanks for the feedback:

Bill,

Long time member. Thanks you for the GREAT information you put out. There is no other newsletter that I know of that gives daily market observations.
I bought physical at $266 and have added to my stocks but the best money I ever invested was your subscription. You are right "got to be in it to win".

Keep up the good work.

Harvey Noel

The New Orleans Investment Conference should be much fun this year. When isn’t it? It’s the last weekend in October. Chris Powell and I will be there. Frank Veneroso, my guru friend of 23 years, will also be one of the speakers. For details:

http://www.neworleansconference.com

Chuck checks in:

Bill:

It is so fascinating to watch a major cyclical bull and bear market unfold. First the bear. Hope and optimism still rule the hearts of the players in spite of the nasty sell off in the bond pits. One would think that the quickest decline in bonds in almost 20 years might dampen the spark in the bulls, but it has had almost no effect. Today we saw (finally) the big announcement that 3M would split its stock. What a shock that the last new high in a Dow stock would want to split, but now everyone can buy twice as many shares for half the price. Now that`s what I call a bargain.

But the big stuff is occurring in gold, and soon silver. Friday the shares were up anticipating a big jump in gold. Today we had the jump and the shares set back. I believe that in a bull market, and particularly in the early stages, that the investors wait to buy on weakness or in this case when gold is down or flat, if it is possible. But if you look at the many charts, you will find some very sharp upward moves especially in the laggards that have good properties. This is a very important indicator for it says that the gold complex is now settling down in the view that we are in a long-term bull. From here on the smaller miners will greatly outperform the larger and listed ones, for that is what this move is about.

At the same time, silver has been resting, and is now prepared to go up again, for the sentiment indicator I look at is pointing to that.

If you put the past few days together (bonds, gold, gold shares and silver) and you must surmise that the markets are looking forward to some yet unrevealed economic event that will apply a great force on the financial markets. My guess is that there will be some out of the blue announcements that will shake our economic foundations, and all of these markets will go haywire. Gold and the shares are exploding out of here. There is no other interpretation as to what we are now seeing here.

Gold has been mired in a deep hibernation for 20 years while the system has loaded up on every conceivable paper and debt trick and manipulation. That period is now over, and the repercussions are beginning to be felt. It is not time to trade in and out of gold. If you are a believer in its value and merit, you will now be greatly rewarded. It is going to go up far beyond what we can think. Because we have been down so long, we may have a tough time understanding this. The second great leg in the metal is underway; the first being from 1971-1980. The foundation and structure of the world economic system is quaking and ready to crumble, and we are witnessing the first shocks of it right now.

Chuck

Chuck is SO right. We are in the midst of the historic investment opportunity of a lifetime. Got to think big picture. Café member JB is playing it right:

Samex and GSS are doing my portfolio quite well thanks to your input. I bought into Samex @ .09 and GSS @ 1.06! Well worth the membership price. Now if my South Africans would just join the party. All in due time, I suppose. As Jesse Livermore says: "There is only one way to ride a bull. Get on and stay on." In it to win it for 4 years now.

Thanks again,
John Burns (happy customer)

The technical action of the HUI and XAU was impressive. Both indices opened higher, broke hard on the day and reversed course. The HUI finished at 180.15, up 3.03, while the XAU rose 1.27 to 87.71.

Samex Mining broke out, closing at 35 cents on huge volume (2,510,000 shares in the US alone). Traded as high as 40 cents and was offered at 38 cents on the close.

Congrats to ECU Silver, who is back off the mat and performed very well. It surprised early by rising to 12 cents before settling back to close 9 cents bid.

The gold/silver shares are going to become much more volatile than we have even remotely seen in recent years. Wait until the public figures out what is going on. It will be like the Wild West!

Chuck checked in with a late note. He says it all:

Bill:

If you can, look at FRE and Buenaventura, etc. These things are not going to sit back. When I look at the charts all that I can see is the blow out move, and this is occurring with a strong dollar, weak dollar, market up or market down. How much more when the market dives and the horror stories start of flow out of the financial institutions! When I read the careful instructions by most of the advisors in the gold columns, I don`t think that many have a real idea of what is happening. This is a once in history event and it`s transpiring before our eyes.

GOT TO BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS



Something to pay attention to and a website to check out:

Where Is The Money?

A New Interactive Web Site Hits You in the Face Over the Enron-Style Looting of the US Treasury and What It Means to You Personally

A Political Reality Check for California`s Political Circus

By Michael C. Ruppert

© Copyright 2003, From The Wilderness Publications, www.copvcia.com. All Rights Reserved. May be reprinted, distributed or posted on an Internet web site for non-profit purposes only.

August 8, 2003, 1200 PDT, (FTW) -- Wholesale Enron-style looting of US taxpayer money on a scale that threatens the stability and safety of every American has prompted an historic alliance between activism, technology, and financial expertise. A new interactive web site, www.whereisthemoney.org/, now makes real, on a local level selected by each user, the enormous amounts of money that have been stolen from the US Treasury. It also makes clear that most of our current problems---from energy shortages, to federal, state and local budget deficits, to needed infrastructure changes---could be addressed if the US government and private corporations like Lockheed-Martin and CSC -DynCorp were held accountable for their mishandling of taxpayer money.

The web site is a collaborative project between three disciplines as represented by its creators:

Former Assistant Housing Secretary and past Managing Director of Dillon Read Catherine Austin Fitts, http://www.solari.com;
Henri Poole, President of Affero, Inc. http://www.affero.com and board member of The Free Software Foundation http://www.fsf.org .
Brad De Graff of The Venture Collective http://www.venturecollective.com.
The importance of the issue, and why it must be injected into every political debate from now on, is dramatically emphasized by the political circus unfolding in California which has been sparked by massive budget deficits, not all of which are attributable to political mismanagement. If such a belief were true, then California would be the only state facing such crises. Instead, we see a nation sinking under red ink while trillions of our dollars are missing.

Candidates in the California recall race (and every American political contest) must be held accountable for this unconscionable theft of taxpayer money. This new web site makes it possible for every American to relate cooked government books and stolen money to the quality of life in their home state and to translate that loss into what it means in terms of education, health care and energy issues. The site also includes an interactive electronic petition where the American people can put their feet down and demand accountability, which is both their right and obligation under the Constitution.

It is not a case where the people "can" make the politicians…

The "whereisthemoney" web site makes a point of the cost of conversion of oil- powered vehicles to natural gas. FTW must emphasize that irreversible natural gas shortages in North America and worldwide make such a move both impossible and inadvisable. But, as a teaching point, the figures are astounding. This example highlights the money that might be available to develop biodiesel fuels or to facilitate the essential infrastructure changes required to develop, for example, hybrid and solar technologies that will soften the growing impact and reality of Peak Oil and Gas. These challenges are only going to get worse.

What is so amazing about this web site is that its head-spin…

Asked why the site did not include the additional $2.3 trillion in DoD funds, Fitts replied, "We wanted to use a number from an administration cross-over year where it was absolutely clear that this was a bi-partisan issue rather than something that could be dismissed or buried as the fault of only one party rather than a system. The figures, as presented, are amazing enough and they present a challenge to lawmakers at every level that cannot be dodged by pointing the finger at someone else."

Be prepared for an eye-opening experience when you visit:

http://www.whereisthemoney.org

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.handelsblatt.com/hbiwwwangebot/fn/relhbi/sfn/buil…

Di., 12.08.2003, 11:21

Anleger dürften Gold als „Krisenschutz“ nachfragen

Chartexperten erwarten Anstieg des Goldpreises

Von H.D. Schulz und L. Mathes*

Nach starken Schwankungen bewegt sich die Goldnotierung wieder auf dem Niveau vom Jahresbeginn. Die Charttechnik spricht für eine bevorstehende Entscheidung über die weitere Marschrichtung: Ein Kaufsignal ergibt sich mit Kursen über 364 Dollar pro Unze.



DARMSTADT. Aktuell kommt Gold seine Eigenschaft als Krisenschutz zu Gute: Die wichtigen Aktienindizes kommen seit Juni nicht mehr vom Fleck, die Anleihen taumeln abwärts. Kreditfinanzierte staatliche Ankurbelungsmaßnahmen werden weiter für Neuemissionen bei Staatsanleihen sorgen; so bietet der Bondmarkt Investoren nicht die gewohnte Sicherheit.

>> Chart: Der Goldpreis in London

Ein Blick auf den Chart zeigt: Der Goldpreis folgt seit Mitte 2001 einem Aufwärtstrendkanal, der sich trotz kurzzeitiger Ausbruchsversuche als kursbestimmend erwies. Vom Tiefpunkt bei 257 Dollar gemessen legte die Feinunze bisher 40 Prozent zu. Dabei führt die Entwicklung seit Jahresbeginn zu einer interessanten Konstellation: Dem zweijährigen Aufwärtstrend läuft eine kurzfristige Abwärtstrendlinie entgegen, die die Hochpunkte dieses Jahres verbindet. Die Notierung bewegt sich also in einer Dreieckformation, die die abwartende Haltung der Anleger zeigt. Doch mit dem Ausbruch aus dem Dreieck wird der Goldpreis in Bewegung kommen.

Die wacklige Lage an den Kapitalmärkten spricht dafür, dass …

Eine langfristige Betrachtung zeigt, dass der Goldpreis mit dem Anstieg seit 2001 seinen im Jahr 1980 begonnenen Abwärtstrend beendete. Die nächste Widerstandsmarke stammt aus dem Jahr 1996. Sie liegt im Bereich zwischen 400 und 410 Dollar. Ein Kaufsignal für Gold, Goldzertifikate und Minenwerte ergibt sich mit einem Anstieg über den kurzfristigen Abwärtstrend bei 364 Dollar pro Feinunze.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Hans-Dieter Schulz ist Mitherausgeber der Hoppenstedt-Charts, Lutz Mathes sein Mitarbeiter.

[niemandweiss]

na und hier haben wir dann auch gleich die passende Chartanalyse von H.D. Schulz

http://www.buero-dr-schulz.de/indexanalysen/goldanalyse.htm

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=38618

Gold Leaves Euro Behind

12.08.2003 10:25

Gold was rising to a 12-day high on Monday. It was supported by a modest increase of the euro but outperformed it by far.

December gold increased $5.40, or 1.5 percent to close at $363.30 an ounce. It traded from $357.50 to $363.50.

Spot gold settled at $361.70/2.50, up from $356.30/70 at Friday`s close. London bullion dealers fixed Monday`s afternoon spot reference price at $359.15.

Gold has managed recently to decouple from the usual high co…

[ThaiGuru]

@niemandweiss

Danke für die Links!

Wie sieht`s eigentlich bei Dir aus, mit Deinen Sommer 2002 Gold Aktien Investments?

Hoffentlich jetzt alles wieder grün?


Gruss

ThaiGuru

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_business.php?id=10…

Business

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
August 12, 2003 16:40 PM

Royal Mint To Sell Gold Dinar Via An Organisation


SHAH ALAM, Aug 12 (Bernama) -- The Royal Mint of Malaysia is near to closing a deal with an organisation to market its gold dinar in the future.

Its managing director, Datuk Megat Mohamed Abdul Wahab said the organisation would buy the gold dinar from the Royal Mint in big quantity and sell it through its appointed outlets throughout the nation.

"The reason why we are not selling it by ourselves is that y… he said.

He was speaking to reporters after entertaining a media group to an official visit here Tuesday.

On the current situation, he said, the Royal Mint received a…

He said the demand on the gold dinar was on the increase and the company had to re-align the production planning in order to meet the demand.

"Our production is limited, however, we hope we can increase… he added.

Megat said orders were also coming from foreign individuals and organisations in Singapore, Nigeria, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

-- BERNAMA

[ThaiGuru]

http://news.nasdaq.com/news/newsStory.aspx?&cpath=20030812A…

Shanghai Platinum Trading To Commence Wednesday

Sydney, Aug. 12 (Dow Jones) - The nine-month-old Shanghai Gold Exchange will officially begin trading platinum at 10:30 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) Wednesday.

The launch is part of an ongoing effort in China to liberalize the country`s precious metals market, which previously had been controlled by the central bank, the People`s Bank of China.

After a trial run July 30, officials with the exchange have said they are ready for regular trading to commence.

According to the exchange, platinum will trade for just two hours a day: a morning session between 10:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. (0230 and 0330 GMT, followed by an afternoon session between 1:30 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. (0530 and 0630 GMT).

As with gold, trade in platinum will be denominated in yuan per gram ($1= CNY8.28). In the July 30 trial run, 170 grams of platinum changed hands, with the metal closing at CNY193.95, equivalent to just over $663.50/oz.

China is the world`s largest market for platinum jewelry, with consumption in 2002 reaching 1.5 million ounces according to the China Securities Journal. Estimates vary on China`s share of total global platinum demand, but the figure is generally thought to be around 25%.

A precious metals trader in Hong Kong said platinum volume on the SGE would likely be modest in the beginning, but would accelerate over time.

But a Tokyo-based trader told Dow Jones Newswires that the Tokyo Commodity Exchange will maintain its position as the most liquid forum for platinum trading in Asia.

"There are still lots of regulation problems in China," he said, adding that it (China) was "still a very closed market."

"As they continue to deregulate, activity will pick up," he said.

At 0851 GMT, the spot price of platinum was quoted at $693.50/oz.

Nicholas Sinclair, Dow Jones Newswires, 612-8235-2957 nicholas.sinclair@ dowjones.com


Dow Jones Newswires
08-12-030536ET
Copyright (C) 2003 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

[ThaiGuru]

Ob das wohl nur ein Zufall ist, dass Comdirect ihren Gold Chart heute mit den grossen 1.- Dollar Spreads, mit viel freiem Platz nach unten genommen hat?

[Mike199]

was ist denn heute schon wieder los?
gold ist mal wieder ordentlich im plus und sowohl xau als hui dick im minus.

kann mir jemand erklären warum?

[ThaiGuru]

@Mike199

Der HUI und XAU sind vorgängig gestiegen, heute scheinen die beiden Indizes etwas zu konsolidieren.
Gold hat heute vorübergehend etwas "nachgegeben".

Geht schon bald wieder hoch!

[ThaiGuru]

@Mike199

Der HUI und XAU sind vorgängig gestiegen, heute scheinen die beiden Indizes etwas zu konsolidieren.
Gold hat heute vorübergehend etwas "nachgegeben".

Geht schon bald wieder hoch!

[ThaiGuru]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2003/…

Release Date: August 12, 2003

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.
The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period shows that spending is firming, although labor market indicators are mixed. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr.

2003 Monetary policy

[ThaiGuru]

Theodore Butler erklärt in seinem heutigen Beitrag, warum der Silber Preis Anstieg vom Silber Cabal wieder einmal mehr abgewürgt werden konnte.



http://www.investmentrarities.com/08-12-03.html

August 12, 2003

CROSSWINDS

By Theodore Butler

Auszug:

This is the third piece I`ve written since the one-day breakout above $5. As I indicated in my two previous pieces, I don`t know if this was the start of the real move sharply higher. Well, I still don`t know. The silver market is conflicted with two very powerful forces - the real supply/demand equation and the ongoing manipulation.

The latest COT shows the commercial net short over 70,000 fu…

As I wrote last week, if we do drop 20, 30, or 40 cents, everyone should know why. There is no other reason than the tech funds were tricked by the dealers into selling. As I write this report, the sell-off is under way. The good news is that if the dealers succeed in getting the tech funds to liquidate (and even go short), we could be setting up for the mother of all buy points in silver. I don`t want to sound so certain as to what`s going to happen short term, because something could come out of the blue to upset the COT-programmed apple cart. (Let`s face it - attempting to break the usual COT pattern of manipulation has been my active goal for almost 20 years. It could happen soon.) But, if the past pattern remains intact, we need to go lower, with volume, to liquidate the tech longs. My guess is that we finish this tech fund liquidation cycle by the end of the month, just as options expire and first notice day arrives. But remember, this is a guess. No one should be making long term investment decisions based upon my short-term guesses.

Long term investors in real silver should not be swayed by the manipulative COT sell-offs. Certainly, no one should disturb long term positions. The silver market is a swimming pool full of gasoline, waiting for a match. Besides, I don`t see big downside in terms of price, only dimes. It`s more a case of getting sufficient volume to liquidate the funds. I would expect that a move below the 50 day moving average (now around 4.76), should be enough, provided we get the requisite volume. For what it`s worth, the COTs on the other COMEX metals, gold and copper, aren`t so hot either.

We must be prepared in any event, whether the COTs play out as usual, or we get a jolt to the upside out of the blue. The real fundamentals have never been better for silver. It`s now been over two and a half months since I (and many of you) wrote to the CFTC asking about the suspicious COMEX inventory movements and how could silver even be considered free since it was in a deficit without rising prices. That`s the central question that proves silver is a manipulated market. With more people recognizing that, and the manipulative pattern of the COTs, the scam can`t last forever. Or maybe even for long.

[ThaiGuru]

August 12 - Gold $358.60 down $3.10 - Silver $4.85 down 13 cents

A Quiet One

"It is not how right or how wrong you are that matters, but … George Soros

Not much to report today. A quiet one.

Gold was weak all night long and all day long, staying below yesterday’s Comex close for most of the time. After six up days in a row, it’s quite normal to get a setback.

Some good news on the open interest front. It only rose 2232 contracts yesterday to 207,192 – not very much on a $5+ gold day.

Well, Greenspan and Co. did their nudge thing with their announcement after the Fed meeting. Said nothing, but wanted investors to know everything was just hunky-dory and interest rates wouldn’t be going up anytime soon. Naturally, gold was socked going into the announcement.

This leads us to the main reason The Gold Cartel MUST be kno…

That is IF they can help it. It is inevitable The Gold Cartel will go down to defeat because they are using up too much of their gold supply to maintain their scam. It is only a question of timing. The good news is they could lose control at any time. One force after another is aligning against them. The gold fundamentals remain a "10+" and collectively could win the day in the very near future.

The main reason to stay fully positioned at these low gold/g…

The silver witch did it again. The same trader who said silver was going to $5.20 was one of those to turn bearish yesterday, partly because of the open interest configuration. He is either one of the best traders I have ever come across, or he is the main honcho for the cabal’s silver operation, which would take little or no trading skill.

Another good silver floor source says if silver takes out $5.27, it will run higher like gold did after it broke through $330.

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

The John Brimelow Report

Tuesday, August 12, 2003

Bombay’s bullion market was closed today, and Reuters failed to provide data from the other cities. A pity, as how the Indian market is responding to these price increases is critical data. A story has surfaced on www.thebulliondesk.com to the effect that Indian gold demand is suffering because astrological impediments have been raised to weddings for the balance of the year. See:

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Articles.asp?Article=58534&Sn…

As readers of these comments know, premiums lately have been strong, and there has been no sign of softening demand. Gold is obviously the quintessential non-perishable. The highest premiums in memory were seen right at the low for world gold in the summer of ’99, supposedly the seasonal low point for Indian demand. My impression is that Indian fathers of marriage-oriented daughters are grimly aware they are not going to be let of the hook, and will buy in a price-sensitive way regardless. So while this is no doubt a serious problem for the operators of banquet halls, it is not likely to be material to the bullion business.

TOCOM did not fully support yesterday’s NY strength in gold: the active contract was up 11 yen on volume of 44,763 Comex equivalent (up 35% from yesterday), but this meant a decline of $1.45 in world gold by the close from the end in NY. There were some comments about selling by the Japanese public, who see a two-week high in yen gold and a vacation week: but open interest puzzlingly rose a significant 2,225 Comex contract equivalent. (NY yesterday traded an estimated 30,000 contracts.)

Yesterday was in impressive day for bullion in NY, and doubters are beginning to emerge. Mitsui-Sydney:

"361-2 is the area we picked that gold technically wanted to…

One notes, sadly, that the reasonably gold friendly Refco Research has bailed out of its’ recent Long:

"Take profits on 1 December gold from 353.4. Exit to follow.…

But the most important assertion needing to be dealt with comes from HSBC:


…Unfortunately, recent history is of little use in coming to a conclusion as to whether further price gains are likely."" target="_blank" rel="nofollow ugc noopener">"The ongoing strength of the bullion market is somewhat surp…

In reality, the most powerful gold moves in the last 20 years have always been preceded by material moves in the shares. One thinks of ’82, ’85, ’89 (often forgotten) and ’92. The fact that the powerful ’99 equity rally was wrecked by the unprecedented Bank of England gold sale announcement is in fact one of the strongest pieces of evidence the conspiracy theorists have that the Official Sector has malign intentions towards gold. The question now is, in the long run can the Central Banks make it stick? In any case, it appears that a gold equity rally is a necessary, if not sufficient, condition for bullion to move, and therefore cannot be disregarded.

One noted bullion dealer, who has resumed his role as a Wall Street/Global triumphalist, reports that gold funds had their first inflow this year - + $30 Mm. Perhaps one should consider what might happen to gold equities if this flow ever became serious.

JB

www.lemetropolecafe.com

[ThaiGuru]

Muss gestehen, habe heute selbst nicht daran geglaubt, dass der Gold-, und auch der Silber Preis noch eine positive Ueberraschung bieten werden. Doch wie hatte Bill Murphy von der GATA es gestern noch zutreffend formuliert:

Gold kann jederzeit, auch ohne Vorankündigung nach oben ausb…

Gold:



Silber:

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030813/0355000561_2.html

Dow Jones Business News

S Africa`s Harmony: 4Q Gold Output 707,053 Oz,Down On Qtr

Wednesday August 13, 3:55 am ET

By Angus Macmillan

Johannesburg, Aug. 13 (OsterDowJones) - Harmony, South Africa`s third largest gold producer, reported a drop in gold output to 707,053 troy ounces in its fiscal fourth quarter to June 30 from 714,096 oz in the third quarter.

However, the company said its output for the full fiscal year to June increased to 2.99 million oz from 2.67 million oz in the previous year.

The company is in the process of merging with ArmGold, the country`s fourth largest producer, to form the largest gold producer in South Africa and the fifth largest producer in the world with annual output of around 4.0 million oz.

In the fourth quarter, cash operating costs rose to $303/oz …

Harmony said its underground recovery grade in South Africa is expected to incrementally increase to 6.0 grams per metric ton by 2009 from the current level of around 5.33 grams/ton.

The company said its organic growth projects at its Randfontein and Freegold mines remain on track and will "secure the long-term future supply of quality production ounces."

Harmony also has gold operations in Australia and is exploring in Papua New Guinea. It is a shareholder in Highland Gold and High River Mines in Russia.

It expects its capital expenditure to rise to 151 million rand ($1=ZAR7.42) in the three months to September from ZAR143 million in the June quarter.

In his review, Harmony Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel said: "The proposed merger between ArmGold and Harmony and the subsequent acquisition of 34.5% of Avmin (which controls the 350,000-oz-a-year Target Mine in South Africa) is in line with our strategy of delivering a leveraged, unhedged pure gold play with operating assets mainly in South Africa."

Angus Macmillan

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030813/0222000452_2.html

Dow Jones Business News

Harmony`s Fiscal Year Gold Production At 3.0 Million Oz Vs 2.67 Million Oz

Wednesday August 13, 2:22 am ET


Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. - Johannesburg

Full Year Ended June 30:

2003 2002
Net Profit $85.00 Mln…


Edited Press Release

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- South Africa`s Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. Wednesday released its operational results for the quarter and financial year ended June 30.

The company indicated that although operating conditions were tough following the 12% decrease in the rand/kg price of gold, the company was still confident that it could generate sufficient cash to fund its future growth and deliver solid returns to its shareholders through dividends.

As forecast, the company reported lower operational profits of ZAR183 million. This was significantly down from the ZAR478 million reported for the previous quarter.

The lower gold price contributed ZAR241 million of the R295 million quarter on quarter reduction.

Operationally the company performed well despite Elandsrand not having recovered from the dilution in grade following orepass scaling, with total production being only 1% lower at 21,992 kilograms.

Headline earnings per share total 65 South African cents, a decrease of 48% to the 126 cents for the March 2003 quarter.

After year-end non-cash adjustments, mainly related to the write-down of its Australian assets, the company reported a loss of 259 SA cents per share for the quarter.

Net earnings for the year totaled 359 cents per share.

A f…

"The Board feels that the 275 SA cents dividend, which is 40… said Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony`s Chief Executive.

During the past financial year, the company produced a record 3 million ounces, a 12% increase year on year.

Although rand/kg working costs increased by 13% year on year, following inflationary cost pressures, lower cut-offs being applied and the incorporation of higher cost acquisitions in Australia, cash operating profits were only 8% lower at R2 374 million.

In U.S dollar terms the company reported a record cash operating profit of US$ 260 million.

Regarding its merger with ARMgold, the process was well on track with the completion thereof expected by 23 September 2003 with the termination of the ARMgold listing.

The merger with ARMgold will create South Africa`s largest gold producer with an exciting portfolio of growth projects which will ensure its future for the next 20 years.

Production from these growth projects increases from 400,000 ounces in the 2005/06 financial year to 1.6 million ounces in 2009/10.

"The future of Harmony in South Africa has been secured through the development of these long life, quality production ounces," said Swanepeol.

"Whilst there will be more acquisition opportunities in Sout… Swanepoel said.

Company Web site: http://www.harmony.co.za

[ThaiGuru]

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030813/0927000780_1.html

Dow Jones Business News

Harmony Gold Sees Productivity Boost From 7-Day Week

Wednesday August 13, 9:27 am ET

By Angus Macmillan, Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

JOHANNESBURG -(Dow Jones)- The introduction of a seven-day week at its core gold mines in South Africa`s Free State province should sharply boost Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd`s productivity over the next year, Chief Executive Bernard Swanepoel said Wednesday.

Speaking at a presentation after the release of the company`s fourth-quarter results, he said an agreement reached Tuesday will result in working days at the company`s vital Freegold operations rising to 350 a year from 276 currently.

"This will create around 2,000 new jobs and increase ore vol… said Swanepoel.

"Our aim now is to bring continuous mining to all of our Sou…

Freegold, jointly owned by Harmony and its soon-to-be merger partner African Rainbow Minerals Gold Ltd., or ArmGold, produced 288,000 ounces of gold in the quarter.

It contributed 144,000 ounces to Harmony`s quarterly output of 707,053 ounces. For the year to June, Harmony produced 2.99 million ounces of gold.

The seven-day week means mines are operating every day except public holidays instead of the usual five days a week.

ArmGold is set to be delisted on Sept. 23 and become part of the new-look Harmony, producing gold at an annual rate of around 4 million ounces a year in South Africa and Australia.

Harmony is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) and Johannesburg`s JSE Securities Exchange.

Commenting on the group`s Australian operations, Swanepoel said these may be sold or closed down if they do not perform adequately over the next year.

"We are not married to any assets and over the next 12 month… said Swanepoel.

In the fourth quarter, the company wrote down 598 million rand ($1=ZAR7.4476) on its Australian mining interests, mainly as a result of goodwill related to its purchase of the Hill 50 gold mine.

"Some investors say our Australian assets have zero value in… said Swanepoel.

He said the aim is for Australia to produce 300,000 to 350,000 ounces of gold annually for Harmony on an unhedged basis.

Australia accounted for 122,365 ounces of Harmony`s fourth quarter output.

Asked about the company`s future growth plans, Swanepoel said the strength of the South African rand against the dollar made South African acquisition prospects attractive.

After its merger with ArmGold, Harmony will control around 30% of South Africa`s gold assets.

During the past quarter, Harmony has built up its holding in Avgold Ltd. ( AVGLY), owner of the 350,000 ounces a year Target mine, to 26%.

But Swanepoel said the company would probably "sit tight" on this stake "for the time being", not wanting to pay too much for control of the asset.

-By Angus Macmillan, Dow Jones Newswires; 27 11 783 7848; [e-mail];

[ThaiGuru]

[Wavetrader]

#6657 von Wavetrader 31.07.03 12:04:30 Beitrag Nr.: 10.293.380 10293380

Update Gold/Silber in Euro!
Sehen wir jetzt, wie die in #6556 und #6408 angesprochene Parallele vom Gold zum Silber fortgeführt wird? Nach Konsolidierung unter GD200 auf zu neuen Höhen?
-----

Wie in diversen Vorpostings angesprochen hat sich die beobachtete Parellele Gold (in Euro) zu Silber (in Euro) nun definitiv bestätigt!

Beide durchstießen nach einem Bottom-Out die GD100, um dann sofort weiter zur GD200 zu steigen, dort abzuprallen, an der GD100 zu konsolidieren und dann wieder kräftigst zu steigen und über die GD200 zu springen.

Sehr schön in den beiden folgenden Charts zu erkennen. Silber ist interessanterweise aktuell ein perfekter Vorläufer.




Direktzugriff: http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts/charts_pvk?Rc=XAUEUR%3D…



Direktzugriff: http://mispk.dresdner-bank.de/charts/charts_pvk?Rc=XAUEUR%3D…

[jeffery2]

#6844, der letzte Satz könnte für Avgold-Freunde noch mal bedeutend werden. Oder ?J2

[Wavetrader]

Ergänzend zu #6846

https://www.dresdner-privat.de/index.html?nav=38&con=/servle…

[manfred1_I]

Auf Gold dürfte weiterhin verlaß sein.

Chaos in Amerika mit dem Stromausfall.
Wirtschaftsdaten aus Eurozone sagen noch
keinen Aufschwung voraus.
Usw. usw.

SChaut euch mal die kleine Jumbo WKN 850269 an
(hat allerdings nichts mit Gold zu tun)
aber durch diese Software kann man hier
noch lesen und am PC arbeiten.
Nebenbei steigt der Kurs schon.
1. PC-cillin 2003 Antivirus-Software

In Abstimmung mit Manaccom, unserem Partner im Software-Vertrieb, werden monatlich Werbemails an die registrierten Nutzer der Software versandt und angeboten, ihre Lizenz zu erweitern durch bequeme und vollautomatische Online-Bezahlung, Software-Downloads und Lizenz-Nummern über Jumbo`s Software Webseite http://www.Rocketfuel.com. Eine neue Webseite wurde unter http://www.Viruscheck.com.au aufgebaut, die eine kostenlose Online-Prüfung ds Computers auf Viren anbietet. Besucher der Seite werden darin bestärkt, PC-cillin zu kaufen, um künftige Vireninfektionen zu verhindern.

[manfred1_I]

Habt ihr heute schon die kleine Jumbo gesehen.

WKN 850269. Das müsst ihr euch anschauen.

[manfred1_I]

an thai-guru

neben den vielen Goldaktien sollte man auch einige
Jumbos und die von denen vertriebene Software
zur Virenbekämpfung haben.

Gold macht nebenbei mal eine kurze Verschnaufpause.
Schon wird wieder an den Aktienmärkten gejubelt.
Wie lange noch??

[hpoth]

q manfred,
Schau Dir mal IVAN Symbol ,Ivanhoe Energy Inc ( Nasdad) an
Pen 1.23 High 1.83 38 Mio Volumen Kurs jetzt 1,68, habe ich gekauft bei 0.84, ist ein Explorer in China Öl und Gas
mfg hpoth 68.34% Plus an einem Tag
nicht schlecht!!!!

[crashkommt]

Manfred,

was soll dass, Du bist hier im Goldboard

Jumpo hat nun wirklich nichts mit Gold zu tun

Wir koennen nichts dafuer, dass Du jumbo bei 50 Acts gekauft hast.

Von uns kauft sicher keiner Jumbo

MfG

[Culogrande1]

Ach...verdammmte Kacke...muss ich wg diesem Saubeutel nochmal in die Tasten greifen...W.O. schluckt gurukritische Texte.

Also der Popeldoktor Ritzi hockt angeblich in Wien in einem Häfen......und die haben kein Internet...Gott seis gedankt

Aber diese Funkstille ist wohltuend.

Culogrande...so am Rande auch zu Adepten

[Wavetrader]

Ich finde auch, dass Fremdwerbung wie #6850 hier nun wirklich nicht reingehört, im Gegenteil, das war schon immer ein guter Kontrainidkator, solche Werte zu meiden.

[Mike199]

ETF im Goldfieber

Der goldbesicherte Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) Gold Bullion soll nach Plänen des World Gold Council (WGC) bald auch an der Londoner Börse zu haben sein. Die Interessenvertretung der Minenbetreiber hat bereits Ende März einen ersten Fonds dieser Art an die australische Börse gebracht. Auch in Amerika liegt ein entsprechender Antrag bei der Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Weitere Zulassungen an europäischen Börsen sind geplant. Wann das sein wird, und wie weit die Planung fortgeschritten ist, wollte das WGC auf Nachfrage von DER FONDS.com jedoch nicht mitteilen.

Der börsengehandelte Fonds wird mit realen Goldvorräten abgesichert und ist damit direkt von der Entwicklung des Goldpreises abhängig. Nach einem Bericht der Nachrichten-Agentur Reuters wurden Mitte Juni fast drei Tonnen Gold zur Absicherung des Londoner ETF gekauft. Das Edelmetall soll laut Reuters in den Gewölben der Privatbank HSBC lagern.

Seit dem Spitzenwert von rund 850 US-Dollar pro Unze (31,1035 Gramm) Anfang 1980 fiel der Goldpreis trotz einiger Ausreißer stetig. Doch seit gut zweieinhalb Jahren geht es wieder bergauf. Im Februar dieses Jahres hat das glänzende Metall mit einem Preis von über 380 US-Dollar je Unze ein Sechs-Jahres-Hoch erreicht.

An der Deutschen Börse ist derzeit nur ein Fonds handelbar, der auf Gold setzt: Der DWS Goldminenaktien Typ O (WKN 976 982). Er ist jedoch nicht durch reale Goldvorräte abgesichert, sondern hat Aktien von Goldminen aus Nordamerika und Afrika im Portfolio. Der Preis dieses Fonds hängt somit nur indirekt von der Entwicklung des Goldpreises ab.

INFO: Das World Gold Council (WGC) wurde 1987 gegründet. Es ist eine Interessensvertretung der weltweit führenden Goldminenbetreiber aus 22 Ländern. Der Hauptsitz des WGC ist in London, weitere Büros hat die Vereinigung in New York, Indien, der Türkei, Dubai, China, Japan und Singapur.


Quelle: DER FONDS

[Wavetrader]

Mit dem eingebauten Anonymizer-Filter müsstet ihr die Charts und die Parallele mit Silber als Vorläufer (#6846) nun sehen können

[manfred1_I]

Diesmal für knallharte Spekulanten:

Investika ist mir mal wieder aufgefallen.

Schon vor ca. einem Jahr mal empfohlen. Wollte
damals keiner haben.

Jetzt als Goldexplorer dürfte er wieder in das
Interesse der Anleger rücken. Ähnlich spekulativ
wie die Sache mit AGD-Mining.
Allerdings sollte hier mal die Produktion starten,
dann dürfte der Kurs nicht mehr im Bereich
von einem €-CEnt stehen.
Heute zum Schluß 1,3 zu 1,5 €-Cent FFM.

Wer den Goldpreis heute gedrückt hat, kann ich
nur vermuten. Ähnlich beim Silber.

Bis dann.

[crashkommt]

Ja Manni ich war das


Schon vor ca. einem Jahr mal empfohlen ??

Kann mich nicht erinnern, es gibt auch keinen Thread von Dir also ich glaubs nicht.

[niemandweiss]

Northwest Commentary - Rising Interest Rates Could Be Very Good for Gold

By Alexander B. Korelin
August 6, 2003

www.abkorelin.com, www.kuik.com



Since becoming involved in the financial markets back in 1979, I have learned that there are many factors influencing what people are willing to pay for an ounce of gold and gold stocks. Political instability; inflation, and international tensions are examples of factors that have historically caused the demand for gold to increase and consequently for its price and the price of the associated stocks to rise.

In the later stages of the last bull market, investors were not too interested in gold because most of them were making great profits in the conventional stock market. That made them feel good and it gave them more spending money if they chose to sell their stocks.

When it became apparent that vis-à-vis the stock markets "the emperor had no clothes", investors` interest in gold increased and its price rose about 40% as stocks plummeted.

It is important to be aware that during this time people`s sense of well-being remained strong. Investors did not feel that their spending power had gone down appreciably because of the liquidity provided by the ability to refinance their homes.

For a number of years the U.S. economy has been fueled by this sense of well-being. It is an accepted fact that consumer spending has kept our economy going in spite of the lack of other important fundamentals.

I believe that this situation is coming to an end. Stocks are trading at absurdly high valuations, unemployment remains at unacceptable levels, profits are not nearly where they need to be to fuel sustained growth, and, debt, on both a personal and corporate level, will wreak havoc in the near future.

What will happen when people realize that they don`t have the spending power that they thought and when their creditors start calling because they can`t pay their debt on time?

In the past this has not been an issue. Even in a bad stock market, if worse came to worse, they could always take money out of their houses.

Strong home sales have supported our economy for about 18 months. Many economists estimate that housing, mortgage refinancing, and housing-related expenditures like furniture have accounted for more that 50% of U.S. economic growth over the last year.

Mortgage rates on June 25th were 5.31%. The rates are now well over 6% and have risen for six straight weeks. There are those who feel that this is good because it is a sign of a strengthening economy.

I do not believe that. We have problems.

Jay Taylor (www.miningstocks.com) recently wrote, "Applications to refinance have fallen 60% since May!

Consumers have been using their homes as a gold mine, not to so much pay down past debt but to consume, consume, consume. This kind of fool hearty behavior will sooner or later kill us. And, it could be sooner rather than later, given the kind of apparent sensitivity the mortgage market has to rising interest rates."

The Fed has been pumping money into the economy for some time now and what is the result?

Jim Paplava (www.financialsense.com) , an expert in economic matters, says, "As central banks increase the supply of money into the economy and financial system, the value of its worth depreciates. This is an irrefutable law of economics: an increase in the supply of money will lower its value."

Our dollar is worth less today in terms of other currencies than it was just a short while ago. In times of a weak U.S. dollar, gold appreciates in value.

Pamela and Maryanne Aden (The Aden Forecast) just sent me their weekly update. They told their subscribers, "Gold`s B decline is over as long as gold stays above $342. HUI hit a new high today and it`s very strong above 156. XAU is near the high and it`s also very strong above 80. Keep your positions."

I think that the Aden sisters are correct, as they were correct back in 1982 when they called the top of the strongest gold market in history.

David Morgan (www.silver-ionvestor.com) has predicted the summer of 2003 would be the beginning of real strength in the silver market. He

has also stated that this is confirmation of a strong bull market going forward, but did warn his subscribers that the metals markets can be very volatile. As long as silver remains above the $4.80 level, it will strongly indicate that the dynamics of the silver market have turned positive.

We have a situation where the amount of money in circulation is contributing to a weaker dollar while at the same time people`s feelings are changing from comfort to concern.

The environment is such that we need to protect our financial well-being. You need to do what you think is right. I, for one, continue to look to the precious metals markets.

*******

[niemandweiss]

http://www.kitco.com/reports/gfms/gfms_quaterly_hedgebook_au…

[Wavetrader]

Neue Gold-Umfrage:

Thread: Gold: Sentiment-Umfrage 2003/08

[silvo]

Jetzt versteh ich überhaupt nichts mehr:





Mahendra am 23.08.03:
EUR/USD rauf auf 1,30,
Gold runter auf 250,--




????????????????????????

[Nefprak]

6863: denke mal das der gute mann sich vertippt hat. soll bestimmt 450.- dollar heißen.

[erdede]

hallo zusammen,


frage an Euch, wo ist denn eigentlich ThaiGuru geblieben?
Hört man nichts mehr von ihm

Gruss
erdede

[hpoth]

Steigt der Euro wieder, sollte der Goldpreis eingentlich auch wieder in Richtung $ 400 gehen, da der Goldpreis zuletzt wesentlich stabiler tendierte als der Euro, könnte sogar ein neues Jahreshoch im Bereich um $ 400 erreicht werden.Für die Minenaktien würde daraus ein deutlicher move nach oben resultieren, der HUI in Richtung 200 bis 250 gehebelt werden, sind doch keine so schlechte Aussichten oder?
Erwartungsgemäß konnte der Gold Bugs Index ( HUI) den massiven Widerstand im Bereich um 155 Punkte klar überwinden.Dazu waren seit Juni 2002 mehrere Anläufe notwendig.Nachdem der Goldsektor im Frühjahr 2002 massiv überkauft war, dauerte es somit relativ lange,bis die Goldaktien ihe Hausse fortsetzten konnten. Allerdings sind solche lange Korrektur-und Konsolidierungsphasen in intakten Haussephasen nicht so ungewöhnlich.Vor allem dannnicht, wenn die erste Haussen, wie beim HUI, Indexgewinn bis zu 200 % bescherte.
Der imposante Anstieg bis z um Juni 2002 zog sowohl ein größeres Investoren- als auch Medienspektakel nach sich.
Diese Attraktion musste zusätzlich erst einmal verarbeitet werden.Nunmehr verlief der Ausbruch idealtypisch.Das allgemeine Interesse war abgekühlt.Der bevorstehenden Ausbruch verpassten sogar etliche Goldanalysten,( man muß eben immer ein Bein in der Tür haben)weil jene sich vor dem Break von dem Rücksetzer des HUI in Richtung 140 Punkte ins Bockshorn jagen ließen.
Positiv ist zudem, dass sich der massive 155er-Widerstand nunmehr in eine nachhaltige Unterstützungsmarke verwandelt.Das Preisziel für dieses Jahr wird 200 bis 250 Punkte liegen.Die nordamerikanischen Titel sind bereits stärker gestiegen, die SA Minen , die noch im Frühjahr 2002 die Führungsfunktion inne hatten, hinken nun deutlich hinterher.HMY;GFI únd DROOY notieren weit unter ihren Jahreshöchsständen.Dies wiederum ist auf den festen Rand zurückzuführen, der die Geschäftsentwicklung vor allem den letzten beiden Quartalen spürbar belastet hatte.
Die SA- Minen sind wesentlich niedriger bewertet als die nordamerikanischen Konurrenten.Außerdem ist jeder spekulative Ansatz aus diesen Aaktien seit geraumer Zeit raus.
Jeder Goldpreisanstieg und jedes Schwächesignal des Rands wird sich unmittelbar in überdurchschnittlichen Kurssteigerungen niederschlagen.Der Rand ist deshalb ja so stark weil dort die höchsten Anleihenzinsen bezahlt werden.Jedoch geschieht das nicht ohne Risiko, wenn die Zinsen weiter gesenkt werden ( wahrscheinlich im Sep) folgen schließlich Nettoabflüsse aus SA,dies wiederum hat negative Auswirkungen auf den Rand, dann könnte dies wiederum Harmony und GFI sowie DROOY beflügeln.Auszug aus dem Zürich Club
schönen Sonntag wünscht hpoth

[niemandweiss]

@ silvo

Könntest du evtl. die komplette Vorhersage von Mahendra hier reinstellen ?

[silvo]

www.mahendraprophecy.com

"discussion forum" anklicken:
Beitrag :


"Why won`t you answer my Question"



mfg

[manfred1_I]

# 6859
an crashkommt

Ist sogar noch etwas länger her.

Ich habe mehrere Beiträge zu IVK hereingestellt.
Hier mal einer.



#1 von manfred1_I 19.03.02 20:34:23 Beitrag Nr.: 5.828.183 5828183
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | historischer Thread
Warum??

Ich kann es nicht erklären. Allerdings gibt
der Chart Anlaß zur Hoffnung. Ordermöglichkeit
in Deutschland sehr gering.
Kaum Stücke handelbar.
Evtl. über SYDNEY versuchen.

[manfred1_I]

Da Investika auch was mit Gold zu tun hat, schaut
euch mal den Kurs in Sydney letzte Nacht an.

+ 14,29 %. Umsätze von



Total Volume ...Last Trade
4,670,159 ..........2.4

[hpoth]

@ ThaiGuru,

was ist los keine Meldungen mehr, bist Du im Urlaub oder hoffentlich nicht krank, vermisse Deine Kommentare.gruß hpoth

[crashkommt]

Ja Manfredo,

ist ja gut, Du bist hier mit Abstand der erfolgreichste Anleger, ein echter Profi.

Mach doch zu Investika einen eigenen Thread auf,
dann muss ich Deinen Scheissdreck nicht immer lesen


Danke

[manfred1_I]

nicht thai-guru ist krank sondern die
crash- oma

Genau was er hier behauptet, macht er.
Er verfolgt alle Board-Beiträge um diese
schlecht zu machen (Arhaes lässt grüssen).
Wie ich aus vielen Anfragen höre, geht er
euch auch gewaltig auf den Zeiger.
Sollen wir ihn sperren lassen??
Oder geben wir ihm noch eine Chance?

Auf Gold dürfte weiterhin verlaß sein.

Mit Mühe konnte Silber heute noch bei 5 Dollar
gehalten werden.
Nicht mehr lange, dann geht es wirklich zur
Sache.

[crashkommt]

Nein Manfred

ich verfolge nicht alle Boardbeitraege um diese schlecht zu machen.

Ich moechte nur Leute die neu im Goldboard sind warnen auf Typen wie dich reinzufallen.

Du behaubtest naemlich seit Anfang 2000 nur noch Goldaktien empfohlen zu haben.

Dass ist nicht richtig wie jeder nachlesen kann.

Du hast den Anlegern, die auf Dich gehoert haben und Anfang 2000 Aktien wie:

My Casino

Global Doctor

Jumbo

Bank Bali Minus

Adultshop Minus

Muehl usw.usw.

gekauft haben EIN VERMOEGEN GEKOSTET!!!

Deine Empfehlungen im Gold und Rohstoffbereich waren und sind in der Regel auch nicht erfolgreich. Werte wie

Menzies

Dominion

Tasgold Minus

A.G.D. Mining

st Barbara Minus

Spinifex Minus

Bougainville Copper

Emperor

Metex

sind allesamt, seit Deiner Empfehlung, stark gefallen obwohl viele Rohstoffwerte neue HOCHS markieren.

[manfred1_I]

Momentan geht echt die Post bei Investika ab.

Noch kennt die Fa. kaum jemand.

Über 6 Mio. Umsatz in Sydney.

Kurs steigt weiter.

[Fandrich]

Hallo Thai !

Hab schon lange nichts mehr von Dir gelesen !

Was ist los ?

Keine Lust mehr - oder Rohstoff (Opium) gewechselt ?

Dein Thread verliert allmählich an Niveau.

Tu mal was dagegen !

Gruß Fandrich

[keepitshort]

Bei www.wallstreet-online.de
im Board „Charttechnik“ Warum die Indices fallen von Harry Schotter
da ist am 27.Aug03 ein guter Artikel zu Freddie Mac
Bonds und Freddie Mac sollten wir weiter beobachten !!!


Quelle:
http://www.stock-options-alert.com/soaspecial0814.pdf
The vicious circle.
Mortage lenders have to dump $40 billion of T-notes for every 25 basis point rise
In yields, according to a model maintained by Greenwich Capital. So far,
yields ar up more than 150 pointws in just eight weeks.

As bond yields rise, mortgage lenders (Freddie Mac) have to sell more
Treasuries as a hedg – wich drives bond prices down and yields up, so they
Have to sell more Treasuries.
It´s a vicious circle that could culminate in a tidal wave of selling!


The next phase of the interest rate rise
A sudden rise in short-term rates is going to suck liquidity out of America´s
Financial system like a giant vacuum cleaner

[Toleranz]

mahendrah - steht Kopf?
Thai Guru seltsam ruhig.

Die Ruhe vor...

[Tippgeber1]

#6863
@Silvio

Hallo Du, der richtige Mahendra hat später darauf
hingewiesen bzw. sein Team, dass dort ein falsche Prophet
schreibt, dies könne man aber sehen, indem man den Namen
anklicke. Der Vorhersage kam also von einem Fake.
Es war nicht der richtige Mahendra. Der bleibt bei seinen
Aussagen Gold steigt ....

Hoffe Dir damit geholfen zu haben.

Liebe Grüße
Tippgeber

[manfred1_I]

an thai-guru

wo bleibt du denn. So langsam macht man sich
doch allgemein Sorgen.


Auf Gold ist weiterhin verlaß.

[Schieler]

BARRICK und seine Derivate - Chancen und Risiken am Goldmarkt

Den nachstehenden Aufsatz habe ich (Dietmar Siebholz) nach Abstimmung mit Florian Riedl-Riedenstein erstellt; es ist mir ein Anliegen, auf die enormen Gefahren hinzuweisen, die durch den engen physischen Goldmarkt, durch den ungeheuren Umfang an Gold-Derivaten und die sich immer mehr aufbauenden Leerverkäufe als Mittel zur Goldpreis-Dämpfung bestehen. Florian Riedl-Riedenstein wird diesen Aufsatz ins Englische übersetzen und ihn an die englischsprachigen Medien übermitteln.



Als ich vor mehr als 10 Jahren im Rahmen einer Tagung mit ausgewählten Bankkollegen über die aus meiner Sicht bedrohliche Lage der deutschen Banken referierte - meine Zuhörer haben mich damals einen notorischen Pessimisten genannt - habe ich mich unter anderen Argumenten auch auf die ungeheuren Risiken bezogen, die die deutschen Banken zum damaligen Zeitpunkt schon im Derivate-Geschäft eingegangen waren. Ich wies die Erklärungen der von Bankvorstände, "wir haben ja für unsere Positionen immer Gegengeschäfte abgeschlossen und führen daher kaum offene Positionen, die uns Risiken bringen..." mit dem Hinweis zurück, dass nur die permanente gute Bonität aller Partnern in der gesamten Kette des Derivate-Geschäftes eine relative Sicherheit bedeuten könne.

Inzwischen haben sich meine damals geäußerten sonstigen Bedenken als richtig herausgestellt; die deutschen Banken befinden sich inmitten eine nachhaltigen Strukturkrise. Ja viel schlimmer noch, sie haben zusätzliche Risiken auf sich geladen, indem sie das damalige Derivate-Volumen unermesslich erhöht haben; dazu stellt sich die Frage, welche Derivate in der vorhandenen Statistiken überhaupt erfasst sind und werden. Gleiches gilt - wie ich von meinen US-Freunden höre - in gesteigertem Masse auch für die großen US-Banken.

Ich wiederhole meine Aussage von 1992, "einer der apokalyptischen Reiter trägt auf seiner Rüstung das Wappen des Derivate-Riesen".

In den Jahren nach 1992 habe ich meine Bedenken mit dem Studium des genialen Black-Scholes-Modell beruhigen können; dieses komplexe und geniale Werk, das aus meiner Sicht zurecht den Nobelpreis zuerkannt bekommen hat, konnte als Sicherheitskonzept für die umfangreichen Derivate herangezogen werden, weil es überzeugende Sicherheitseinrichtungen beinhaltet.

Nun, ich hätte es besser wissen müssen, denn schon einmal in meiner geschäftlichen Vergangenheit habe ich mit einer derartigen Sicherheitsgestaltung äußerst unangenehme Erfahrungen machen müssen: Einer meiner früheren Börsenkollegen aus meiner Zeit als Händler an der Düsseldorfer Börse war bei der damals sehr bekannten Kölner Privatbank I.D. Herstatt als Devisenhändler tätig; die Bank führte hohe Umsätze im Dollar-Future durch und rühmte sich einer effektiven Risikokontrolle ihrer Derivate. Unabhängig davon, ob nun durch Mitarbeiter diese Kontrollen umgangen wurden oder nicht, die Herstatt-Bank ging pleite und wurde aufgelöst.

In der Praxis gilt die alte Börsenweisheit:

Was gelten schon Sicherheitskonzepte und Prinzipien, wenn die Köpfe der Entscheidungsträger
an der Börse von "fear and greed" beherrscht werden?



Als ob es noch eines Beweises bedurft hätte, dass auch die genialsten Kontroll- und Sicherheitsverfahren nicht helfen, wenn die Risikoprämissen falsch eingeschätzt werden oder zwei oder mehrere Risiken gleichzeitig gegen den in den Derivaten unterstellten Trend laufen, konnten wir Ende 1998 vom Untergang des so erfolgreichen Long Term Capital Management Hedgefonds (LTCM) lesen, der das Modell der beiden Nobelpreis so erfolgreich umgesetzt hatte, dass nur ausgesuchten Bank- und andere Institutionen als Investoren aufgenommen wurden. Beim Untergang des LTCM hat die Finanzwelt das erste Mal das Gefühl erfahren dürfen, wie gefährlich überzogene Derivate-Geschäfte für die weltweite Finanzindustrie werden können.

Dass LTCM als Bestandteil seines riesigen Handelsvolumens auch eine Short-Position von ca. 300 Tonnen Gold führte, ist bis heute weder bestätigt noch der Verdacht entkräftet, war doch der Gold-Carry-Trade (Erklärung), eines der todsicheren Tipps in der Investment-Banken-Branche, nämlich das ertragreiche Geschäft mit von den Notenbanken geliehenen Goldbarren und - wie man damals wähnte - ohne Risiko für alle Beteiligten.

Nun wissen wir heute, dass dieses angeblich risikolose Geschäft ein sehr hohes Risiko mit sich bringt, weil das Gut, das hier leerverkauft wird, nicht wie Bonds, Aktien oder Währungen unbegrenzt ins Leben gerufen, emittiert, geliehen oder gedruckt werden kann: Die Goldbestände sind zwar in ihrer physischen Form in großer Menge vorhanden, aber nicht zu allen Bedingungen disponierbar.

Nach den oben geschilderten Erfahrungen mit den Risiken der Derivate-Geschäfte, insbesondere auch unter kritischer Betrachtung der Relation des Anteils der Commodity-Spot-Kontrakte gegenüber den Commodity-"Papier"-Kontrakten dürften sich diese Erfahrungen aus der Vergangenheit bei den Anlagedispositionen lohnen. Was kann das für ein gesunder Markt sein, in dem sich der physische Anteil am Commodity-Umsatz in wenigen Prozenten des Papier-Commodity-Umsatzes darstellt? Seit etwa drei Jahren prüfen die Investoren bei Edelmetall-Minengesellschaften sehr sorgfältig die Hedgepositionen und beurteilen die Vorstände und deren Gesellschaften nach deren Fähigkeit, die Aktionäre an den Chancen und Risiken der sich verändernden Edelmetallpreise direkt zu beteiligen.

Auch dieses Verhalten, das durchaus die Märkte stark beeinflusst, ist das Ergebnis einer kritischen Überprüfung von abnormen Formen des Marktverhaltens.

Fasziniert haben mich bei meinen Untersuchungen der Hedgebücher von Minengesellschaften ganz besonders die herausragenden Konditionen, die sich Barrick bei seinem Investment-Banker gesichert hat. Ich habe aus meiner Sicht solche Konditionen nicht für möglich gehalten, und daher habe ich diese Ausnahmebedingungen und deren Hintergründe einer näheren Überprüfung unterzogen. Bei meinem Misstrauen gegen diese unvorstellbar einseitigen und für BARRICK günstigen Konditionen bin ich davon ausgegangen, dass uns allein schon der gesunde Menschenverstand sagt, dass an einem derartigen mit erheblichem Risiko ausgestatteten Geschäft ja einer der beiden Vertragspartner oder ein Dritter (Garant) die in den Derivate-Geschäften enthaltenen Risiken tragen muss.

Wenn man die umfassenden Auflagen prüft, deren sich heute ein mit guter Bonität ausgestatteter Unternehmer hier in Deutschland unterziehen muss, um z.B. einen zweijährigen Zinsswap abschließen zu können, dann stellt sich die Frage, welche Sicherheiten ein Goldminen-Unternehmen für einen zeitlich auf 15 Jahre flexibel geschlossenen Forward-Sale-Kontrakt (Erklärung) hinterlegen müsste bzw. welche Sicherheiten dieses Goldminen-Unternehmen von seiner Investment-Bank (bei der sich z.B. im Falle JP Morgan Chase noch deren Bonität von AAA inzwischen auf A + reduziert hat) fordern müsste, um absolute Sicherheit für seine Derivate-Geschäfte zu erzielen.

In den Forward-Sale-Kontrakten zwischen BARRICK und JPM-Chase steckt also eine erhebliche Explosionsgefahr für beide Seiten, denn das nicht unerhebliche Risiko kann für den jeweiligen Kontraktpartner zum Todesurteil werden, wenn man einmal den Umfang des gesamten Kontraktvolumens betrachtet: Wenn BARRICK seine Lieferverpflichtungen aus welchen Gründen auch immer nicht erfüllen kann, dann hat JPM eine kaum erfüllbare Lieferverpflichtung, die JPM wohl nicht mehr zu erträglichen Konditionen im Markt decken kann. Vielleicht helfen dann wieder US-Institutionen aus, die man beim Unfall des LMTC als Nothelfer vermutete?

Ich bin sicher, dass JPM inzwischen einige neue Erfahrungen gemacht hat, was die Forward-Sale-Kontrakte angeht: Das Stichwort heisst: Great Central Mines - Yandal - Normandy - Newmont. Newmont übernahm von Normandy das durch das Merger (Erklärung) nicht garantierte Hedgebuch dieses Minenstandortes, bei dem in den Jahren der gedrückten Goldpreise die Investment-Banken, darunter auch JPM bei ursprünglich geschätzten Reserven von ca. 6,0 Mio. Unzen 3,7 Mio. Unzen als Sicherheit für Forward-Sale-Kontrakte verwendeten. Heute steht fest, dass lediglich 3,0 Mio. Unzen wirtschaftlich abbaubar sind. Wenn die Investment-Banken auf das Angebot einer freiwilligen Vergleichslösung von NEWMONT in den nächsten Tagen nicht eingehen sollten, werden die Investment-Banken die Yandal-Mine wohl übernehmen müssen: Dann fehlen nach der Übernahme der Mine durch die Investment-Banken zuerst 700.000 bereits verkaufte Unzen Goldes. Darüber hinaus sind und dann sind diese Institute noch verpflichtet, den Goldabbau fortzuführen, um zumindest noch die vorhandenen 3,0 Mio. Unzen zu fördern,um ihren Schaden zu reduzieren, denn eine insolvente Yandal-Mine wird wohl keine physische Unze Goldes abliefern können.

Allein dieser Vorgang belegt, in welchem Risiko sich die Investment-Banken mit ihren Gold-Leihe-Geschäften befinden, und dass es sich nicht nur um rein theoretische Risiken handelt.

Die Fakten, denen sich die Bullion-Banken, die ja bisher bestens an den Gold-Carry-Trade-Geschäften und den Forward-Sales verdient haben, nun gegenüber stehen, zeigen das Risikofeld, das bisher wohl nicht richtig eingeschätzt oder überprüft wurde. Denn bei den komplexen Gestaltungen der vielfachen Übernahmen und Mergers wurde offenbar übersehen, dass die Risiken aus den Derivaten oder Forward-Sales nicht immer von den übernehmenden Firmen übernommen wurde, sondern diese Risiken bewusst oder zufällig bei den ursprünglichen Minengesellschaften verblieb; anders wäre die Androhung eines vollständigen Rückzugs von NEWMONT nicht zu verstehen. Es wird wohl so sein, dass eine volle Haftungsübernahme der Konzernmutter nicht vereinbart wurde.
Ich bin sicher, dass in den Führungsgremien der Bullion-Banken eine hektische Betriebsamkeit ausbrechen wird, und diese prüfen werden, ob noch mehrer "Yandal"-Vertragslücken bestehen. Bei der Gier der Bullion-Banken in den Jahren 1997 bis 1999, so viele Derivate abzuschließen wie möglich, werden sicherlich auch einige weitere Haftungsbegrenzungen und -Ausschlüsse geschehen sein. Wir werden dies sicherlich bald erfahren, denn solche Risiken sollten die Verantwortlichen veröffentlichen. Immerhin gehen diese Risiken und Ausfälle in sehr hohe Millionenbeträge.

Reizvoll ist es auch, den Gedanken, "wer ist von solchen unsicheren Derivate-Konstruktionen noch betroffen?", weiterzuverfolgen. Wir werden nach solchen Vorgängen wie bei Yandal bald wieder von den Goldausbuchungen bei Notenbanken hören, die ja nun entweder die Bullion-Banken zur strikten Rückzahlung jetzt tatsächlich kaum rückzahlbarer physischer Gold-Unzen auffordern oder auf eine Barentschädigung drängen müssen, wenn die Bullion-Banken nicht unter doppelten Druck gebracht werden sollen. Das dürfte äußerst schmerzvoll für die Notenbanken sein, denn einerseits erhöht sich der Bestand an sich stetig abwertendem Dollarguthaben, andererseits reduziert sich das Volumen der nun nicht mehr in die Tresore zurückkehrenden Gold-Unzen, deren Preise eine gesunde Aufwärtstendenz aufweisen.

Solche Vorgänge wie die Lieferung portugiesischen Goldes in die Derivatsverpflichtungen und die wohl bald bekannt werdende Abwicklung der verunglückten Yandal-Kontrakte zeigen aber auch, wie unehrlich, ja sogar kriminell die Handhabung der Notenbanken ist, Gold in den Tresoren und verliehenes Gold (=Goldforderungen) in einer Bilanzposition auszuweisen. Den normal sterblichen Kaufmann in Deutschland erwartet der Besuch des Staatsanwaltes für den Fall einer Insolvenz wegen Verstosses gegen eine Reihe von deutschen Gesetzen. Für Notenbanken gilt dies wohl nicht.

Nun, nachdem die Risiken aus den Forward-Sale-Kontrakten zumindest offen liegen, stellt sich die Frage, wer bei den BARRICK-Forward-Sales nun die Risiken trägt. Dass sie vorhanden sind, dürfte inzwischen unzweifelhaft feststehen, und Yandal gibt hierzu eine zusätzliche Erweiterung des Risikovolumens. Dazu einige erklärende Erläuterungen:


Es ist wohl unwahrscheinlich, dass den beiden Vertragsparteien die mit diesen Geschäften verbundenen Risiken nicht bekannt waren; wenn nicht, dann stehen sie heute mehr denn je fest, zumal sich die Börsenbewertung des einen Partners (Minenunternehmen) sehr unbefriedigend und entgegen der Wertsteigerung seiner "Peers" entwickelt und bei dem anderen (Investment-Bank) das Rating stark heruntergenommen wurde.

Ich habe mir immer die Frage gestellt, wie die "Verkaufspreise" für die Forward-Sale-Kontrakte zustande gekommen sind: Wie kann BARRICK bei einem Marktpreis von damals ca. 280 US$ einen Verkaufspreis von 345 US$ erzielen? Die Erklärung ist einfach: Man hat einen Zusatzertrag aus der Zinsertragsdifferenz pro Jahr (aus dem zu bezahlenden Goldleihe-Zinssatz des Verleihers und dem Zinsertrag aus der aus dem Erlös getätigten Kapitalanlage auf einen vorab definierten Zeitraum) hochgerechnet und dann diesen zukünftigen "Ertrag" in den Basis-Verkaufspreis pro Unze eingerechnet. Diese mit zukünftigen Zins-Margen-Erträgen aufgewerteten "Verkaufserlöse" sind in die Ertragsrechnungen und in die Bilanzen eingeflossen.

Es ist sehr wagemutig, die auf Jahre hochgerechneten Zinsaufwendungen für die Gold-Leihe und die kaum im voraus kalkulierbaren Zinserträge für die Anlage der aus dem Verkauf des geleasten Goldes stammenden Mittel auf lange Sicht mit der erforderlichen Sicherheit zu ermitteln, und dann diese auf Jahre hinaus geschätzten sich multiplizierenden, sich gegebenenfalls gegeneinander aufhebenden Werte in den Forward-Sale-Preis einzubeziehen.

Hier droht bei steigendem Gold-Leihe-Zinssatz (noch nicht eingetreten, aber durchaus bei Verzerrungen am Edelmetallmarkt denkbar) bzw. bei fallenden Zinserträgen (schon eingetreten) ein erheblicher Wertberichtigungsbedarf, der die Erträge bei den Hedgern, aber vor allem bei BARRICK sehr schnell atomisieren könnte. Sind die Verträge zugunsten BARRICK unumstößlich abgeschlossen, dann trägt die Investment-Bank das gesamte oben geschilderte Risiko.



Für mich als in Deutschland ausgebildeten Bankkaufmann ist diese Verbuchungsweise abenteuerlich, aber nach den Erfahrungen mit der ENRON-Buchhaltung, mit der zulässigen Verbuchung von Pensionslasten, mit Pro-Forma Erträgen aus Pensionskassen und generell mit den Pro-Forma-Abschlüssen in den USA scheint diese Handhabung bei BARRICK auch einen Paradigmenwechsel zu bisher üblichen Verbuchungsmethoden darzustellen. Auch wenn diese Buchhaltungspraktiken offiziell in den USA zugelassen sind, nehme ich mir aber die Freiheit, festzustellen, dass diese Buchhaltungspraktiken den Keim des Unterganges in sich tragen. Insoweit schließe ich mich aus voller Überzeugung der Auffassung eines unverdächtigen Zeugen der US-Anlagebranche, nämlich von Warren Buffett an, der die Derivate-Geschäfte in den USA mit finanztechnischen Massenvernichtungswaffen verglich.

Wenn ich die Darstellung der Forward-Sale-Kontrakte aus der BARRICK-Bilanz richtig interpretiere und die Risk-Management-Vorgaben aus dem Black-Scholes-Modell richtig verstanden habe, dann sind bei einem Goldpreis von 360 US$ pro Unze, spätestens aber bei Erreichen von 370 US$ je Unze, gewisse physische Anschaffungen und Gegengeschäfte zwingend erforderlich, um eine Risikoverminderung herbeizuführen. Wenn diese Schwelle für die großen Hedger unter den Goldminen-Gesellschaften gleichzeitig gelten sollte, zumindest aber für BARRICK und PLACER, dann stehen interessante Zeiten ins Haus. Kein Wunder, dass so nachhaltig das Goldpreis-Niveau von 370 US$ verteidigt wird.

Ein zusätzlicher Druck geht vom schwachen Dollar aus. Fest steht, dass mit dem Kursverfall des US$ die Kaufkraft in Gold für die anderen wichtigen Wirtschaftspartner der USA nahezu unverändert geblieben ist, d.h. dass Gold sich kaum in den alternativen Währungen wesentlich verteuert hat, aber nominal in US-Dollar schon erheblich teuerer geworden ist. Die großen US-Hedger bilanzieren jedoch in US-Dollar und haben ihre Kontrakte in gleicher Währung abgeschlossen. Damit gilt: Der Druck aus den Risk-Management-Programmen nach dem Black-Scholes-Modell nimmt allein dadurch zu, dass der US-Dollar fällt, während für die anderen großen Handelspartner der USA der Goldpreis stabil bleibt. Ohne, dass die Goldpreise in den anderen Ländern steigen muss, treten die automatischen Risk-Management-Zwänge bei den Investment-Banken in Kraft. Man kann auch diese Zwänge ignorieren, aber unter dem Druck der Märkte nicht lange...

Für mich sind beide Vertragspartner aus diesen von BARRICK jahrelang als das Non-Plus-Ultra bezeichneten Forward-Sale-Kontrakten höchst gefährdet, denn einer von beiden muss letztendlich das diesen Geschäfte innewohnende Risiko übernehmen. Aber beide behaupten, kein Risiko aus den Vertragsbeziehungen für sich zu sehen. Man wird sehen...

Was bleibt, ist die Frage, wo dieses Risiko in den Bilanzen beider Unternehmen ausgewiesen wird.
Wer trägt denn dann das Risiko dieser Kontrakte? Ist es eine unbekannte (oder bekannte) Macht, weil diese Gold-Forward-Sale-Kontrakte in deren Auftrag oder Interesse geschlossen wurden? Ob es reiner Zufall ist, dass George Bush senior und Mr. Mulroney - früherer kanadischer Premier - im Aufsichtsrat von BARRICK amtierten? Honi soit qui mal y pense...

Mein Resumee: Die jahrelangen Erfolge des Gold-Carry-Trades haben viele übermütig gemacht und die Höhe der eingegangenen Forward-Sale-Volumen in astronomische Höhen befördert. Die Bonität der im Gold-Future-Handel Involvierten ist extrem gesunken. Die Einbahnstrasse der unentwegt nach unten tendierenden Goldpreise existiert auch nicht mehr, die Aufnahmebereitschaft der asiatischen Dollar-Guthaben-Staaten für Gold ist durch die jüngsten politischen Bewegungen erheblich gestiegen.

Interessant in diesem Zusammenhang ist die mir kürzlich von Blanchard & Cie übermittelte Information, die der nach eigenen Angaben größte US-Münz- und Goldhändler in seinen Prozess gegen JPM und BARRICK einbringt, nämlich, dass JPM über Zwischengesellschaften indirekt an BARRICK beteiligt sein soll. Höre ich da im Hintergrund ein Raunen "ENRON, ENRON, ENRON"... ?

Eines ist sicher: Die Zukunft wird interessant, denn entweder regelt der Markt diese unglaubliche Risikoanhäufung, von der alle Parteien behauptet, sie wäre keine, oder im Prozess Blanchard gegen JPM und BARRICK werden neue Tatsachen aufgedeckt, die weitere Risiken offen legen.


Fakten: • Die Akkumulation von physischem Gold in der östlichen Welt führt zu einer Umverteilung des realen Goldbesitzes im Prinzip von "West nach Ost".

• Bei weltweit weiterhin niedrigem Zinsniveau haben sich die Vorteile des Gold-Carry-Trades aufgelöst.

• Nicht aufgelöst sind die Liefer- oder Eindeckungsverpflichtungen der Hedger und Shortspekulanten im Goldmarkt; Yandal zeigt, welche unbekannten Tretminen in diesem Geschäftsfeld noch unbeachtet herumliegen.

• Der schwache Dollar führt zu Zwangseindeckungen nach den Risk-Management-Regeln, ohne dass Gold im internationalen Vergleich im Preis steigen muss.

• In absehbarer Zeit wird sich herausstellen, wer im Verhältnis zwischen BARRICK und JPM das in den Geschäften enthaltene enorme Risiko zu tragen hat. Der Prozess Blanchard & Cie gegen BARRICK und JPM wird hier neue Erkenntnisse bringen.

• Ob dann noch die neue Maginot-Linie von 370 US$ zu halten sein wird, ist äußerst fraglich.



© Dietmar Siebholz (und Florian Riedl-Riedenstein)









Anmerkung/Erklärung von GoldSeiten.de:
Unter Gold-Carry-Trade verstehen die Goldfachleute das von den Investment-Banken realisierte Geschäft: Gold leihen von Notenbanken - Verkaufen im Markt - Anlegen des Erlöses in US-Verzinslichen Staatstiteln - Rückkauf des Goldes wenn möglich noch zu Preisen unter den damaligen Verkaufspreise. Damit wurde der Goldkurs im Sinne der Notenbanken und der USA jahrelang gedrückt und ein starker Dollar dargestellt. zurück
Forward-Sale-Kontrakte ist eine Spielart der Warentermin-Handels: Marktteilnehmer verkaufen am Gold-Markt Goldkontrakte mit künftiger Fälligkeit, mit der Absicht, entweder (als Goldminen-Gesellschaft) dieses physische Gold, das noch zu fördern wäre, nach Gewinnung zum Ausgleich der Vorwärtsverkäufe einzusetzen. Dieses Spiel haben aber auch Investment-Banken durchgeführt, die dabei natürlich höchst spekulatives Terrain betreten haben, aber da jahrelang ja alles gut ging. Außer...
Unglücksfall Nr. 1: Long Termin Capital Management Fund mit geschätzten 300 Tonnen
Unglücksfall Nr. 2: Gold und ENRON mit behaupteten 50 Tonnen Gold zurück
Merger ist die Fusion zweier Gesellschaften in unerschiedlicher Ausführungsgestaltung. zurück











Autor:
Dietmar Siebholz (und Florian Riedl-Riedenstein)
Kontakt:
[e-mail]
Stand:
06/2003,
auf den GoldSeiten.de seit: 08/2003

[optim3]

moin thai guru

glück auf wünscht dir O 3

[Tippgeber1]

Hier mal die damalige Vorhersage von MAHENDRA:


"Friday, August 08, 2003
Gold will rule this century, gold $1600 and me!!!
I still remember on the 9th September 2001, in an interview I made at 1.30pm at SABC TV in Johannesburg. There were five most important predictions that I made on that day:
1. South Africa economy will rise because of the Gold rise.

2. Extensive terriorist attacks against the USA.

3. Collapse of US dollar - Major scandal will come out on counterfeit of the US dollar note; this would be one of the reasons the dollar will collapse in the international market.

4. Aids cure will come by the end of the year 2003.

5. Last but not lest, and the most important prediction was; gold will rule this century and the prices of gold will rise for the next 51 years.


Many other predictions I made on that day in the interview I have them videotaped. Whenever bear cartel of gold they confuse me, same day I play repeatedly that videotape, I mostly watch that part about the gold and I try to read again in that tape; my body language, eyes movements and my voice the way they were responding it was in a unique way. That was the message and calculation is astrology.


One more thing that I want to openly share with you is a very personal experience that I had on my 23rd birthday in September 1991, I was seated with a good friend of mine in his home having a cup of tea at around 7.00pm and I suddenly told him that I think I have a unique relationship with gold and that a time will soon come when I will be predicting on gold and Gold would move with my thoughts accordingly.

On the day of the interview I wanted to speak much more on gold but time was not on my side since there was a time limit of 30minutes only, so I had to give maximum information in brief words (I wanted to explain in full details why I said gold would rule this century and what the future holds for gold and why it would remain strong.)


My sentence was “gold will rule the century”, it will be rising soon and bottom-out on 27th November 2001, gold companies and investors will make fortune in long terms. Prices of gold will reach $1600 in a few years time. This was what I said in the interview but let me explain more on what I wanted to say and why I recommended my closest people and public to remain invested in gold. This century started with Jupiter. Jupiter has a unique relationship with gold but there are negative planets which give negative impact for short term, like in our life time is not always the same, even the brilliant people, technical analyses or knowledgeable speculators also make losses in the market. Whenever the time is negative, gold prices come down for short period.


I have been watching and reading closely the movement of gold for the last 18months, gold is trading very strongly above $300, that shows a very strong strength in prices and future trend, also the gold stock are performing well and the mostly gold investors have made money and mighty few have lost because of bad luck in chart. I still hold my prediction for gold to cross $400 and Silver to cross $6.00 soon. Next week major price movement will come in gold and silver, at the time I am writing this article gold is trading around $353 and silver $5.03, I am expecting major rise next week.


Changes of Jupiter from the 3rd week of July 2003 are giving signals for gold/silver prices towards the up-ward movements. Time changes peoples’ minds i.e. after 1996 many started investing in technology because of Saturn pulling power (but stayed for short period) and now Jupiter is doing for gold and good news is that it will do for long period. Like 18months before people were very optimistic on gold and gold stocks but slowly the gold prices moved up and people were slowly joining the crowd, more people will join in the crowd to come and put their money in a safe place, and that’s in gold.


Big and small investors will join in the crowd this will make gold reach $1600 and ounce, then there will be a drastic fall because the energy has to divert, after sunshine the sun has to set, prices will come down to around $1000 ounce and the future range of gold will be $1000 to $1600 from the year 2010 to 2018.



I dont want to write a lengthy clarifications, I know some people from gold community are still optimistic about my gold and silver predications.


Some thing off track, I am writing here because I felt it. I think each human should respect each other because in each human being there is a God. I think everyone has a unique ability we better develop a good path we all know ourselves better and I am sure the day we all know ourselves fully we will do something good to the community and the world, I want to continue my life towards astrology, the great signs of astrology and whenever I get a message I pass it on to you. If one has lost money through my advise, I sincerely ask for their forgiveness because I want to remain your friend for the remaining days of my life.

God bless.

Yours,

MAHENDRA SHARMA."



Liebe Grüße
Tippgeber

[Imoen]

Ich rauch ja auch alles mögliche, aber so heftige Visionen hatte ich selten.

[Basic]

50 Jahre Gold würden mir auch schon reichen
Basic

[Tippgeber1]

@Imoen

Der war gut
Ich bin Nichtraucher

Liebe Grüße
Tippi

[Stormy]

Thai, wo und wie sollte ich Gold kaufen?
Ist der Kauf steuerfrei?

[Schndluder]

Ich glaube, ich pack in meine Wohnung eine Wagenladung Goldbarren

^

http://cgi.ebay.de/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=3043883160…


Was haltet ihr davon

[jeffery2]

Der Preis geht schon völlig in Ordnung Nur das Porto von 9,90 € ist echte Abzocke!!
J2

[Stormy]

Wo kann man diese Barren sonst noch kaufen?

[sterngleiter]

Hallo Thaiguru,

seitdem Deine äußerst geschätzten Infos nichtmehr er-
scheinen, wirkt und ist das hiesige Gold-Forum
auf dem Wege zur "Intensivstation".

Bitte tue uns Anhängern doch den großen Gefallen,
und " belebe " dieses Forum wieder mit Deinen qualitativen
Berichten, die uns die Einsicht in dieses Forum wieder
zur Freude machen.

Vielen Dank im voraus und mit größter Spannung und Vorfreude
erwarten wir wieder Deine Superberichte!!!

[Teffie]

Morgen,

was halten hier die Experten von IMZ (International Minerals , WKN: 893760?
Die laufen sehr gut und geben bald neue Ergebnisse bekannt!
Es existiert auch ein Thread hier im Goldboard!

Würde mich über eure Meinung freuen!

MFG Teffie!

[hpoth]

Hallo ThauGuru, wünsche mir auch wieder Deine gute Informationen, vermisse sie sehr. gruß hpoth

[Tippgeber1]

hi all

Gold bei 376$... denke, dass wir schnell die 400 sehen
werden...also fleißig weiter Calls kaufen

Wo Thai-Guru ist, weiß ich auch nicht.
Er würde doch nicht einfach wortlos rausgehen!
Normal scheint mir das nicht zu sein....
Hoffen wir mal, dass er bald wieder da ist.

Grüße
von einem
besorgten
Tippgeber1

[ulfur]

Aus der FTD vom 1.9.2003
Edelmetalle: Fonds-Käufe sorgen für freundliches Umfeld
Von Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach

Viele Händler wollen sich derzeit nicht mehr gegen den vorhandenen Aufwärtstrend beim Gold stellen. Solange die Fonds weiter kaufen, ist ein Test höherer Niveaus nicht auszuschließen.

Für diese Woche zeichnet sich eine Handelsspanne zwischen 366 und 380 $ je Unze ab. Sollte die obere Marke durchbrochen werden, ist das Hoch von Februar bei 388,50 $ in Reichweite.

Gold fiel zu Beginn der vergangenen Woche zunächst und durchbrach dabei die Marke von 360 $ je Unze. Gründe waren der schwache Euro und steigende Börsen. Allerdings hielt überraschend die letzte charttechnische Unterstützung bei 359,05 $. Spekulativ orientierte Fonds trieben den Preis am Dienstag auf 367 $ je Unze. Weiter aufwärts ging es am Mittwoch, als Käufe durch Inhaber offener Optionspositionen das Gold auf 371 $ brachten. Am Freitag notierte es nur knapp unter den in der Spitze erreichten 376,50 $ je Unze.

Analysten halten die derzeitige Entwicklung unter fundamentalen Aspekten für weiter schwer erklärbar. Die längerfristig orientierte Nachfrage ist nur verhalten. Die spekulativen Pluspositionen liegen dagegen mit inzwischen zehn Millionen Unzen und einem Plus von 10 Prozent innerhalb der vergangenen Woche auf einem Rekordhoch.

Aktien und Dollar freundlich

Aktienmärkte und Dollar präsentierten sich zuletzt relativ freundlich, und schließlich sind die Produzenten mit ihren Rückkäufen eine der wesentlichen Abnehmergruppen, was langfristig nicht durchzuhalten sein wird.

Die Zentralbank von Griechenland - die einzige in der Euro-Zone, die das Goldabkommen der europäischen Zentralbanken nicht unterschrieben hatte - gab am Dienstag überraschend den Verkauf von 20 Tonnen Gold bekannt. Die Verkäufe führten am Markt zu Spekulationen darüber, wann eine mögliche Verlängerung des 2004 auslaufenden Goldabkommens verkündet würde. Analysten rechnen damit, dass dies schon in diesem Monat anlässlich der Tagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds in Dubai passieren könnte.

Palladium setzte seinen Aufwärtstrend fort. Fonds und Händler kauften das Metall vor dem Hintergrund von Gerüchten, nach denen die Metallvorräte an der New York Metal Exchange (Nymex) nicht groß genug seien, um in dieser Woche fällige Lieferverpflichtungen für den Fall zu erfüllen, dass physische Auslieferung verlangt würde. Das Metall erreichte mit 205 $ je Unze das höchste Niveau seit Mai.

Platin auf 23-Jahres-Hoch

Platin stieg in der Spitze auf 714 bis 719 $ je Unze und damit auf ein neues 23-Jahres-Hoch. Die Käufer - allen voran auch hier die Fonds - verweisen auf ein positives charttechnisches Umfeld und auch auf gute fundamentale Aussichten. Diese, so die Marktteilnehmer, könnten sich bei einem Anspringen der globalen Konjunktur noch weiter verbessern.

Vertreter von Produzenten verwiesen in dieser Woche allerdings darauf, dass die Autoindustrie versuchen könnte, den Verbrauch zu reduzieren. Die Autoindustrie ist der wichtigste Abnehmer von Platin. Es wird in Katalysatoren eingesetzt. Außerdem leide durch den hohen Platinpreis bereits die Schmucknachfrage in China.

Silber entzog sich der positiven Stimmung bei den anderen Metallen und stieg nur leicht auf 5,14 $ je Unze.

Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach ist Produktmanager Edelmetalle und Rohstoffe bei Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt.

http://www.ftd.de/bm/ma/1062167823914.html?nv=hpm

[jeffery2]

Also der Wolfgang mit dem schwierigen Namen weiss genau wie Gold nächste Woche steht.
Lest mal die Artikel von den letzten 4 Wochen. Es nützt niemanden, ach ja, die Fonds haben gekauft, er weiss auch nicht warum. Hoffentlich wissen die Fonds das und haben ihm auch rechtzeitig gesagt, dass sie kaufen.
Der Bursche könnte wohl das nächste Sparopfer der Dresdner werden.
J2

[ulfur]

Auch W.-Roßbach weiß natürlich nicht, wie sich der Goldpreis in der nächsten Woche entwickelt. Allerdings finde ich es interessant, wenn ein eher skeptischer Edelmetallhändler meint, daß sich viele Händler sich nicht mehr gegen einen weiteren Aufwärtstrend stellen wollten. Wenn das stimmt, könnte dies weiteren Auftrieb für das Gold geben.

[Magor]

# 6894 Tippgeber
"Er (Thai) würde doch nicht einfach wortlos rausgehen!"

Wenn Ihr Euch etwas zurückerinnert, hatte Thai nicht, selbst nach wüstesten Meinungsverschiedenheiten, trotz Androhung ewiger Abstinenz, sein Schmollen spätestens nach einigen Tagen über Bord geworfen?

Jetzt, ohne jeglichen Grund, wo alle Hoffnungsträger super Performance aufweisen ... gerade jetzt einfach wortlos gehen ... ?

Ich hoffe für Thai, daß er nur freiwillig Abstinenz übt, es sieht ihm jedoch verdammt nicht ähnlich!

Ich bin eher besorgt, daß es etwas Ernsteres sein könnte ...
Unter seiner Userinfo allerdings steht, daß er am 30.08 / 21 h ins Forum hereingeschaut haben könnte ...
???

Grüße an ihn, falls es wieder mal der Fall sein sollte
Magor

[ThaiGuru]

Habe einen kleinen Urlaub genommen, nach viel stressigem Erfolg an der der Thai Börse.

Der Goldpreis entwickelt sich gerade prächtig in die richtige Richtung. Die Minen, wenn auch noch etwas zögerlich, ebenfalls. Braucht halt alles seine Zeit! Kommt aber erst noch richtig, wenn wir die 400.- Dollar Hürde hinter uns haben.

Die thailändische Gold Mine/Explorer *THL* hat sich ebenfalls sehr gut entwickelt, und sich seit meiner ersten Kauf Empfehlung bei 1.50 THB hier im WBoard, innerhalb von gerade einmal ca. 8 Wochen, mit 4.40 THB Schlusskurs am letzten Freitag, ja bereits einmal fast verdreifacht. Das ist aber erst der Beginn der Fahnenstange.

THL: ISIN Nr. TH0061010U15

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=THL.BK&d=c&t=5d&l=on&z=b&q=l



Die bei Yahoo angegebenen Umsatzzahlen stimmen leider jeweils nicht! Sie sind in Wirklichkeit massiv höher!

http://www.set.or.th/set/en/market/market_u6.jsp?sym=thl

Bei Goldpreisen über 375.- Dollar, wird *THL* ruck zuck (1-3 Monate), noch die 6.- THB erreichen. Falls der Goldpreis weiter hochsteigt, wovon ich ausgehe, dürfte bei THL auch 8.-, oder mehr THB keine Fantasie mehr darstellen.

Zin wird auch nicht billiger, und offshore Zinminen besitzt THL ja in Phuket bekannlich auch.

Was THL anbetrifft: Es ist noch lange nicht zu spät einzusteigen, nur sind halt nun für Neueinsteiger 190% Gewinne weniger zu holen, und das Risiko einer Preis Korrektur ist gestiegen!

Im WBoard schreiben werde ich, ausser in Ausnahmesituationen, zukünftig wohl eher nicht mehr.

Erstens habe ich wenig Zeit, zweitens ist mein Ziel, die Goldpreis Manipulation des Gold Cabals, und deren Zusammenhänge mir den Zentralbanken, im Board einer breiteren Masse von Lesern bekannt zu machen, und die Leser selbst zur Mitaufklärung übers Gold Geschehen zu animieren, und die Zukunftschancen die ein Goldinvestment bietet zu erkennen, wohl mehr als erfüllt. Immerhin war dieser Thread seit langer Zeit der mit Abstand meistgelesenste Gold Informationstread im WGold Board.

Was sich jetzt aber neuerdings für Zocker, und Pusher Neulinge im Gold Board aufhalten, war mir dann doch etwas zuviel des Guten. Die sind ja noch viel schlimmer als die alten.

Einigen älteren weniger erfolgreichen, frustrierten WGold Board Usern, und einigen Board Idioten, einer davon sogar dem Boardadel zugehörend, mit Doktor Titel, und der "Moral einer schwulen Klapperschlange", wie er selbst von sich bei Weinmal behauptete, eine Plattform zu bieten ihr Ego zu befriedigen, daran liegt mir ebenfalls herzlich wenig.

Da ich mich auch nicht mit anderen älteren Usern in Sachen, "welche Mine ist nun wohl die bessere? Deine, oder meine, messen möchte, bleibt es wohl bei meiner Funkstille.

Herzlich Danke sagen möchte ich nochmals allen Gold Bugs, un…

Physisches Gold, und Silber, strong buy!!!


Gruss

ThaiGuru


PS: Vor Gewinnmitnahmen bei Euren Goldaktien, bevor nicht ein Goldpreis von mindestens 800.- US Dollar erreicht ist, rate ich Euch dringend ab. Selbst bei einer sich vielleicht noch einmal abzeichnenden grösseren Preiskorretur, vor, oder nach dem Erreichen von 400.- Dollar pro Unze Gold.

[Tippgeber1]

@Thai-Guru

Ja, ich kann Dich verstehen. Die Zeit ist ein kostbares
Gut und es ist ein endliches Gut....

Es ist schade, dass du gehst, aber niemals gehst du so
ganz und schaust ab und an nach dem rechten......

Würde mich freuen, wenn wir weiterhin in Kontakt bleiben
könnten, wie seit vielen Jahren, ob wir uns mal sehen
werden?

Vielen Dank, von meiner Seite, für Deine hervorragende
Arbeit.Du hast es auch gar nicht nötig Dich hier
rumzustreiten...wer aufgepaßt hat, hat genug gelernt
Letztlich ist klar, dass du Deine Energien für andere
Dinge einsetzen möchtest!

Ich für meinen Teil, werde neben Gold und Silber
selbstverständlich, wie seit vielen Jahren, in
thailändische Fonds investieren(Emerging Markets)
..um das Risiko zu minimieren. Ich halte den
thailändischen Markt für massiv unterbewertet
immer noch......


EIN GROSSER USER VERLÄSST DIE WO-BÜHNE
DER VORHANG IST GEFALLEN......



Machs gut Thai-Guru
Viel Glück und melde Dich mal


Herzliche Grüße
vom Tippgeber

[hpoth]

@ ThaiGuru

Was Tippgeber formulierte dem ist nur zu zustimmen,hoffentlich meldest Du Dich ab un an wieder, es wäre schön wenn auch wir in Verbindung beleiben könnten.
gruß hpoth

[Algol]

Ein stummer Mitleser:
Verständlich aber schade,
danke

[Culogrande1]

@Siamkaterchen: dir weint keiner eine Träne nach.....du trittst nähmlich gerne nach und warst immer wortbrüchig....erinnere dich doch an die verlorene Wette...unsere Liebe zueinander entflammte heftig als ich den Wetteinsatz deinerseits öffentlich einforderte.

Aber wer macht jetzt copy und paste.....und etwas feigeres als zu sagen auch bei einem Rücksetzer nicht zu verkaufen zeugt nicht von eigenen Gedanken....und dir noch ins Stammbuch geschrieben....meine Hennendärme,das Orakel, signalisieren einen langsamen Ausstieg...das Zeug will nicht mehr richtig nach oben ...also fällt es...warum soll ich es dann noch im Depot haben???

Culogrande....das allein für dich am Rande

[Wavetrader]

#6899:

Also ich habe jetzt schon mindestens 3 mal erlebt, dass sich Thaiguru vom Board verabschiedet hat

Selbst die Eigen-Sperre bis 400$ hat er letztes Mal nur wenige Wochen durchgehalten. Ein echter Goldinvestor wird nämlich niemals auf das wichtigste Kommunikationsmedium für Börsianer verzichten. Abgesehen davon - es gibt doch nichts Schöneres, als sich gemeinsam über die richtige Richtung der Kurse zu freuen.

Vielleicht braucht Thaiguru aber einfach ab und zu diese "Ich vermiss dich"-Postings für sein Ego.

Mit diesen Worten möchte ich nicht seine bereichernden Beiträge im Goldforum niedrigreden, sondern das Ganze etwas relativieren.

[ulfur]

zu #6903

Es war doch wohl DottoreLupo alias Culogrande, der die Wettbedingungen nicht erfüllen wollte. Nachzulesen in Thread: !!! Gold !!! im Up-Trend !!! jetzt 301.50 US $.

Jetzt Thaiguru vorzuwerfen, er sei wortbrüchig geworden, zeigt nur den fragwürdigen Charakter von CL.

[optim3]

moin thai guru.


aus der frankfurter über den goldpreisanstieg:

das letztlich bemerkenswerte am jüngsten aufschwung des goldpreises ist die
tatsache, daß sich das edelmetall nun in allen bedeutenden währungen
verteuert hat. in verbindung mit dem umstand, daß die als exzessiv geltenden
kaufengagements der spekulativen fonds den aus rein technischer sicht vorge-
zeichneten rückschlag noch immer nicht ausgelöst haben, erklären manche
händler, die lage am kassamarkt lasse eine korrektur offenbar nicht zu. jeder
kleinere preisrückgang scheine auf rege PHYSISCHE kaufbereitschaft
zu stoßen.
über die gründe für diese konstellation kann nur gemutmaßt werden. so wird
von zunehmender investmentnachfrage ebenso gesprochen wie von massiven
schieflagen großer operateure am physischen markt.

[Culogrande1]

Mein lieber Ulfur: Siamkaterchen wollte eine Wette....ich schlug ein und setzte dagegen...er hängte dann diese idiotische Spende an Gata dran...ausgemachter Käse.

So einfach ist die Welt

Wer aber nie verkauft kann auch nicht kaufen....als ich den Kater darauf mal anspitze kam nur dummes Zeug....er hätte andere Geldquellen

Ich verdiene mein Geld mit Minen,sage mal mir wirds zuheiss und gebe....und bis jetzt bin ich immer wieder billiger wieder rein....manchmal dauert es nur länger.

Siam kannte nur Copy und paste....ist das eine Leistung den LeMetropole Käse hier zu verlinken

Culogrande

[Tippgeber1]

@Culogrande/Dottore Lupo

Hier nochmalö die Wahrheit, die dir zeigt, dass Du es warst, der die Wettbedingungen nicht akzeptiert hatte.



"#26 von ThaiGuru 07.02.02 22:58:57 Beitrag Nr.: 5.539.466 5539466
Dieses Posting: versenden | melden | drucken | historischer Thread
@Dottore Lupo

Deine Impertinenz und Deine Wortverdrehungskünste sind wahrlich nicht zu überbieten.

Nur zur Erinnerung.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Deine Wett-Herausforderung #8 um 7:34 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wollen wir wetten???

Setze eine Kiste guten Weines oder eine DP Magnum 90er oder etwas adäquates gegen deine 310 heute???

cu DL....der Minenfuchs...weil die sind vorsichtig
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meine Antwort #10 um 7:51 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wette angenommen!!

Mit einer Bedingung, dass es bei dieser Wette um eine Spende um 500.- Euro an die GATA Organisation geht, und dass der Einzahlungsbeleg hier vom Verlierer der Wette ins Board gepostet wird.

Mit Deinen 80% Gewinnen die Du mit Minenaktien schon gemacht hast, beziehe mich auf Deinen heutigen Thread *Der Dreck raucht in der Schachtel*, sollte es Dir ermöglicht haben eine Magnum Flasche Dom Perignon selbst zu kaufen.

Die GATA ist jedoch immer noch auf Unterstützung im Kampf gegen die Goldpreis Manipulateure angewiesen.

Gruss

ThaiGuru
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Du lässt mich warten! Neues Posting #14 um 08:25
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Warte auf Deine Antwort Dottore Lupo?


Gilt die Wette mit der Spende von 500.- Euro an GATA?

Goldpreis 310 US$ heute in der USA!


Gruss

ThaiGuru
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dottore Luppos Ablehnung meiner Bedingung für das Zustandekommen dieser Wette! #15, um 09.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also .

Habe mich zum Frühstück zurückgezogen.

Also,Gata bekommt nichts...weil ich den Blödsinn der Butlerkonsorten nicht unterstütze.

Und von einer Wette will ich profitieren.

Es schmeckt nichts süsser als der Nektar des Verlierers.

cu DL...wie siehts aus
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Meine Antwort auf Deine Ablehnung um 11:15 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@dottore Lupo

Schade, dass ich mich in Dir getäuscht habe!

Gold steht zur Zeit wieder über 300.- US$ pro Unze!!!!!

TG
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dann auf einmal!#20 um 17:59 Uhr, 8 Std und 45 Min nach der Ablehnung meiner Bedingung für das Zustandekommen einer Wette im Dottore Lupos Posting Nr.#15 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Komme gerade heim muß aber gleich wieder weg.
Aber nur nebenbei die Wette steht noch!!!
Und was heißt in mir getäuscht nur wenn ich meine Meinung vertrette!!!
Den Wein können wir uns schon munden lassen aber GATA kriegt nichts ab.
....bin schon weg
DL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Und zum Schluss noch den Versuch von mir eine Kiste guten Weines zu bekommen, mit der Unterstellung, durch seine indirekte Frage ob ich Wort halten würde!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dottore Lupo Posting #24 um 21:19 Uhr
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@ Thai_Guru:was ist nun...bin eben von einer Besprechung zurück,das letzte Posting schrieb mein Sohn auf meine fernmündliche Anweisung.

Hier im Board gilt noch das Wort!!!!

cu DL
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Falls es Deine Absicht war zu provozieren, ist Dir das sicher Gelungen, doch Weintrinken mit Dir niemals!

Gruss

ThaiGuru"





Tippgeber

[Spieler0815]

Also: Wenn wir mal ganz normal Vertragsregeln des BGB , hier über Angebot und Annahme zurgrundelegen, dann ist zwischen ThaiGuru und DL KEINE Übereinkunft (Wette) erzielt worden:
DL hat ein Angebot gemacht, auf dieses hat ThaiGuru mit einer Änderung (Bedingung Gata) geantwortet - Eine solche Antwort gilt nicht als Annahme sondern als neues ! Angebot - das dann von DL hätte angenommen werden müssen. Hat er aber nicht (Gata bekommt nix), ThaiGuru hat darauf nicht geantwortet, Schweigen war hier auch nicht als konkludente Zustimmung zu deuten: Ergo: Kein Vertragsverhältnis zwischen beiden zustandegekommen.
(Wobei wir mal die Frage, inwieweit Wetten einklagbar sind, außen vor lassen)
Spieler

[Schndluder]

ThaiGuru hat wenigstens substantielle Beiträge gebracht - ein großer Verlust für das Board

[silvo]

Heute Schlußlicht im Dow Jones :

3m

- Wenn dieser Wert abschmiert, geht der ganze Dow den Bach runter!!!!


Gut für den Goldpreis!!

[Wasserzeichen]

Tschau Thai!Schade,als Gold u. Silberbug hab ich den Thread immer gern gelesen!Naja,vielleichtüberlegste Dir das nochmal
mit der Abstinenz...

Gruß Wz

[Saccard]

@silvo

3M wird abschmieren, nru beeindruckt das den Dow gar nicht. Ein simpler Aktiensplit und schwupps ist die hohe Indexgewichtung dahin.

Gruß
S.

[Culogrande1]

Meine liebe Tippi: der Kerl schriwe in einem anderen Thread nach der Wette....und als einziger des Boards hielt ich hier dagegen...also shut up

Die Diskussion wurde von mir hier reingelegt....damit mehr Publikum dabei ist....btw,,,der Pursche postete mit 3 ID.

Damit Ende...diese Pfeife kostete dem guten Dottore das Leben...er bezeichnete in als Loch in der rückwärtigen Körpermitte eines Menschen

Culogrande....zu dir so sacht am Rande

[Tippgeber1]

@Colugrande1.

Dein Sätze wirken etwas confused Dottore
Ich konnte Deine Sätze kaum verstehen, geschweige denn
nachvollziehen. Try it again

Soll ich Dich denn jetzt loben, weil Du der einzige warst,
der auf die Wette anfänglich einging, um dann später die
Bedingungen nicht zu akzeptieren und trotzdem zu glauben
die Wette gewonnen zu haben? Ist nicht Dein
ernst Dottore

Am Rande ganz sachte gesagt........


Gruß
Tippgeber

[bluemoons]

Rohstoffe
(03.09.2003)

Die Ölförderung in Russland hat im August mit 8,5 Millionen Barrel am Tag den höchsten Stand seit dem Untergang der Sowjetunion erreicht, wird aus Moskau berichtet. Im Juli sollen es 8,5 Millionen Barrel gewesen sein. Über das staatlich kontrollierte Pipeline-Netz sollen im August 3,58 Millionen Barrel exportiert worden sein.

Der irakische Ölexport soll im August rund 645 000 Barrel am Tag betragen haben, wird inoffiziell aus Bagdad berichtet. Das Ziel lag bei 650 000 Barrel. Für September ist eine Ausfuhr von 800 000 Barrel täglich geplant.

Bei Blei und Zink dauern die Mutmaßungen über die Zukunft von Porto Vesme an. Händler erklären, nun scheine alles davon abzuhängen, ob Verhandlungen über den Bezug billigerer Energie zum Erfolg führen.

Bei Aluminium in London besteht der Aufschlag der Kassa- gegenüber der Terminware (backwardation) in den kurzen Sichten zwar fort, doch zuletzt hat dies nur noch geringe Mengen physischer in die Lager der LME fließen lassen, stellt Barclays Capital fest.

Der Nickelbedarf in China dürfte bis 2005 nach Angaben von Jinchuan Group, dem größten Produzenten dort, auf 150 000 Tonnen steigen. 2002 sollen 90 000 Tonnen verbraucht worden sein.

Nickel hat am 2. September trotz des beendeten Streiks bei Inco in Sudbury mit 9650 $ je Tonne den höchsten Stand seit drei Jahren erreicht, stellt Macquarie fest.

Bei Silber in London steigen die kurzfristigen Lease Rates erneut beachtlich. Dies deutet auf vorübergehende Knappheit an physischer Ware hin.

Am Zinkmarkt könnte China bei weiter anziehenden Preisen als Verkäufer auftreten, vermutet Barclays Capital.

Die Weizenfläche in Argentinien für die Ernte 2003/04 sinkt gegenüber 2002/03 nach Angaben des Landwirtschaftsministeriums dort von 6,165 Millionen Hektar auf 6,062 Millionen Hektar. Die Produktion werde aber wohl von 12,3 Millionen Tonnen auf 14,5 Millionen Tonnen steigen.

Die Ernte von Kaffee in Brasilien soll am 28. August zu 94 % abgeschlossen gewesen sein und bis dahin 31,06 Millionen Sack erbracht haben, wird aus Sao Paulo berichtet.

Die Haupternte von Kakao in Ghana verspricht 2003/04 nach Berichten von dort wegen unzureichender Niederschläge eher enttäuschend auszufallen.

Die Mittelernte von Kakao in Indonesien droht wegen Trockenheit und Hitze weniger als 50 000 Tonnen zu erbringen, erklärt die Indonesian Cocoa Association. Üblicherweise liegt die von Oktober bis Dezember einzubringende Mittelernte bei etwa 80 000 Tonnen.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 2003 Tauros GmbH - www.taurosweb.de

[bluemoons]

Gerhoch Reisegger

Status der gegenwärtigen Wirtschaftslage


„Dies ist keine normale Regierungspolitik. - Nun ist es an der Zeit, daß sich die (amerikanischen) Menschen in zivilem Ungehorsam engagieren. Ich glaube, die Zeit zu protestieren ist gekommen – und zwar so stark als möglich.“
- Prof. Akerlof, Nobelpreisträger und Lehrer an der Universität von Berkeley in Kalifornien.

"Gerade in dem Augenblick, als George Bush seine kriegerische Botschaft hervorgrollt, ist sein Land in einem derart entkräfteten Zustand wie noch nie zuvor."[1]


"Versucht Bush, das Land in den Abgrund zu führen", fragt William Thomas[2]. Der jüngste Steuer-Winkelzug aus des Knaben Wunderwelt, mit dem einem Prozent der herrschenden Elite Amerikas ein weiteres 470 Mrd. $-Steuergeschenk gemacht wurde, hatte unlängst eine ganzseitige Annonce in der New York Times zur Folge, die von 40 Nobelpreisträgern und 400 der führenden US-Ökonomen unterzeichnet war, die vor der Katastrophe warnen. Als den kanadischen Radiohörern die Bedenken der Unterzeichner dargelegt wurden, bezeichnete einer der Sponsoren dieser Anzeige Bushs Wirtschaftspolitik als "fiscal madness".[3]

Die gegenwärtige US-Wirtschaftslage[4] bietet nur zwei Auswege: inflationieren oder untergehen. – Was dies bedeutet? Eine – eigene und die der Kinder – Zukunft haben wir nur durch: Inflation oder Nichtanerkennung der Schulden.

Unter Greenspan erlebten wir, die USA und die ganze westliche Welt, eine Dekade der schrankenlosen Ausgaben, eines Lebens über unsere Verhältnisse und der grenzenlosen Verschuldung. Die Hälfte der US-Bundesschulden wurde in den 1990-ern angehäuft, nämlich 2,87 Billionen $ neuer Schulden; dies ist mehr, als alle Schulden zusammen seit Gründung der Vereinigten Staaten.

Das ist freilich nur ein Teil der Geschichte. Insgesamt handelt es sich um unbedeckte Verbindlichkeiten in Höhe von ungefähr 43 - 44 Billionen $[5], inkl. des Bereichs der Sozialversicherung (Pension und medizinische Vorsorge), der üblichen Regierungsausgaben und natürlich der Zinsen auf die nationale Schuld. Wie soll eine 10 Billionen-Volkswirtschaft je diese Billionen Dollar Schulden bedienen?

Der frühere Treasurer Paul O´Neill hatte gebeten, die wahren langfristigen Verpflichtungen der US-Regierung zu erfahren. Sie sollten in der Budget-Vorschau als “generational accounting” – also der Generationen-Bilanz, aufscheinen, sie wurden jedoch aus dem Budget-Dokument entfernt, als die Dimension sichtbar wurde: ca. 43 Billionen $, zum Barwert gerechnet.

Diese Schätzungen sollten die formalen Schulden des US-Treasury – jene offiziell berichteten etwa 3,8 Billionen $, die „von der Öffentlichkeit” in Form von Regierungsobligationen gehalten werden, plus die verpflichtenden Regierungszusagen enthalten, also Pensionen und medizinische Versorgung.

Die Autoren jener Studie waren Dr. Jagadeesh Gokhale, ein führender Ökonom der Federal Reserve Bank von Cleveland und der andere an diesem Projekt arbeitende Ökonom, Dr. Kent Smetters, ein Fachmann für Soziale Sicherheit und Medicare, von der Wharton School der Universität von Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. Der Bericht ist zwar aus dem Budget-Voranschlag verschwunden, nicht aber die Verpflichtungen der US-Regierung.

Es gibt also nur diese beiden Wege: Nichtanerkennung eines Großteils dieser Schuld oder wenigstens deren drastische Beschneidung, oder sie über die Notenpresse zu bedienen. Welche der beiden Möglichkeiten wird die US-Regierung wählen? – Nun die Notenpresse läuft bereits auf Hochtouren, und dabei sind die wirklich großen Ausgaben Amerikas noch gar nicht schlagend geworden. In diesem Fall wird eine noch nie gesehene Inflation einsetzen.

Im Augenblick sehen wir nur die Spitze des Eisbergs. Das Budget-Defizit des Bundes beträgt eine halbe Billion $[6], das Leistungsbilanz-Defizit ist ebenfalls in dieser Höhe. Schlimm genug, aber es ist nichts verglichen mit dem, was noch kommen wird.

Ironie des Schicksals: die am meisten verschuldete Nation – USA - meint den Weltpolizisten spielen zu müssen, und belastet sich pro Monat mit 3,9 Mrd. $ Kosten alleine für den Irak, und stationiert das Militär überall auf der Welt. Die politische Führung ignoriert nicht nur dieses Problem vollkommen, sondern macht es täglich nur noch schlimmer.

Der bisherige „Erfolg“ der USA verdankt sich einem außergewöhnlichen Phänomen: der Akzeptanz des Dollars als Welt-Reserve-Währung. Bisher waren die USA in der Lage, ihre Schulden per Notenpresse buchstäblich wegzudrucken, weil die Welt willens war, die Dollar als Bezahlung für ihre Waren und Handelsgüter zu akzeptieren. Aber der Berg an Dollar wächst, und es erhebt sich längst die Frage, ob der Dollar überhaupt noch eine gültige Währung ist[7]. Wenn dies einmal in Frage gestellt ist, ändert sich alles. Bzw. es ist wie mit des Kaisers neuen Kleidern: wenn aus einem „dummen Zufall“ heraus der Bann gebrochen ist, ist – was ohnedies den Wissenden einsichtig war – keine Frage mehr, sondern es ist aus mit dem Betrug.

Die Besitzer von Bonds beginnen sich bereits abzuseilen, sie verlassen das sinkende Schiff. Die 30-jährigen Bonds sind auf neue Tiefststände gesunken, d.h. die Zinsen für Hypothekardarlehen gehen in die Höhe, Schulden werden teurer. Die Pensions- und Versicherungsfonds, die langfristige Bonds halten, sind seit Mitte Juni inzwischen um 15% und mehr gefallen.

Die FED hatte die Sparer gezwungen, entweder riesige Verluste hinzunehmen oder mit T-Bills (Schatzscheinen) und CD´s praktisch nicht zu verdienen. Die Niedrigzinspolitik der FED hatte die Älteren gezwungen, ihre Ersparnisse aufzubrauchen oder mit den Bonds das Hemd zu verlieren.

Die Zukunft sieht also so aus: die Regierung wird die Notenpresse massiv anwerfen, um Federal Reserve Notes (Dollar genannt) zu drucken, um die Schulden, und bei Fälligkeit die unbedeckten Verbindlichkeiten abzuzahlen. Die Zukunft heißt Dollar-Verfall, damit verbunden eine Flucht aus dem Dollar und Finanzpapieren in Handfestes. Die Zukunft wird durch einen Abfluß des Papiers aus den Funds in echte Werte – Gold und Silber – gekennzeichnet sein.

Die FED hatte einen Zustand sich aufzubauen erlaubt, den man nur als „technischen Bankrott“ bezeichnen kann. Die USA – aber mutatis mutandis ist diese Situation in allen „westlichen“ (= kapitalistischen) Ländern die gleiche – haben eine 10 Billionen-Volkswirtschaft, aber sie sind mit unbedeckten Verbindlichkeiten von über 40 Billionen $, zusätzlich zu den „normalen“ geradezu unerhörten Budget- und Leistungsbilanz-Defiziten, konfrontiert.

Wo wäre da ein Ausweg? Gibt es noch Fluchtmöglichkeiten?



BBC: Muslime rufen auf, dem Kapitalismus einen Strich durch die Rechung zu machen.

Wie von Mark McCullum der BBC berichtet wurde[8], hatte ein Sprecher einer Islamischen Konferenz zum Thema: „Islam in Europa“, im spanischen Granada die Muslime in aller Welt aufgerufen, beizutragen den Kapitalismus zu überwinden. Diese Konferenz wurde von 2000 Muslimen besucht.

Der Hauptredner, Omar Ibrahim Vadillo[9] von der Organisation Murabitum, sagte, daß die amerikanischen Wirtschaftsinteressen zur Religion für die ganze Welt wurden und die Menschen ihre Lebensart sklavisch dem kapitalistischen Modell angepaßt hätten.

Er sieht den IMF und die Weltbank faktisch als Washingtons bezahlte Agenten an, die sowohl die Erste als auch die Dritte Welt auf den inoffiziellen Dollarstandard als Reserve-Währung festgelegt haben, ein Umstand, der sich nun rächt. Es scheine, daß die Entwicklungsländer all jene westlichen Ideen begierig aufnahmen, die zu den schlechtesten gehören. Als kleines Beispiel erwähnt er indische junge Frauen in Designer-Jeans auf einem Motorrad mit ihrem Ehemann fahrend, mit verkehrt aufgesetzten Baseball-Kappen: dies sähe - in Erinnerung an Shri-Shri Ghandi - für den Redner wie ein obszöne Geste aus. Dabei war die indische Gesellschaft eine der wenigen, die ihr kulturelles Erbe vor der Auflösung in eine westliche Welt aus Plastik geschützt hatte. Das sei aber nicht mehr so. Indien existiere in seinen großen Städten nicht mehr und es überlebe kaum auf den Dörfern.

Er habe in eindeutigen Worten dargetan, die Welt sei geradewegs im Dritten Weltkrieg, und der Dollar das Ziel der Zerstörung. Aber wer braucht noch einen Feind, wenn wir selbst die Waffen zur eigenen Massenvernichtung in Form von OTC-Derivaten[10] geschaffen haben. In Wahrheit hat der Kapitalismus nicht über den Kommunismus gesiegt. Der Kommunismus ging zuvor (von allein) zugrunde.

Er kommt zum archimedischen Punkt, den wir auch schon bei der Betrachtung der „wahren Gründe des Irak-Krieges“ behandelt haben[11], als er auf der Konferenz die Muslime aufforderte, die weitere Verwendung des Dollars zu beenden. Möchte noch jemand lange in einer Dollar-Rallye involviert sein? Kaum. Man sollte schleunigst versuchen – wenn möglich am Höhepunkt (des Dollarkurses) - zu verkaufen. Wer Dollar hat, hat dann auch das absolute Ziel von Saddam Hussein und Bin Laden[12].

Derselbe Redner begrüßte die Einführung des malaysischen Gold-Dinars in die Weltwirtschaft und bezeichnete dies als das bedeutendste Ereignis für Muslime in moderner Zeit.


Conclusio
Der rabiate, als „Reform“ etikettierte Abbau der österreichischen oder deutschen Sozialsysteme hängt mit diesem US- bzw. weltwirtschaftlichen, apokalyptischen Zustand unmittelbar zusammen. Die „Deckung“ unserer Währung, solange sie noch Schilling und D-Mark hieß, bestand immer schon zum größten Teil nur noch in Devisen, und hier hauptsächlich im Dollar. Das wird Folgen haben – und hat sie bereits.

Die Deutsche Bundesbank hatte unter Ludwig Erhard aufgrund ihrer Außenhandelsüberschüsse, die damals noch zur Hälfte in Gold ausgeglichen wurden (der andere blieb als Kredit – und „Entwicklungshilfe“ - für die Schuldnerländer stehen), einen Goldschatz im Umfang von 3.701 to angehäuft. Allerdings liegt dieser deutsche Goldschatz nicht in den Tresoren der Deutschen Bundesbank und schon gar nicht in Deutschland, sondern in London und New York. Angeblich hat die BB einstelligen Prozentsatz des Goldes „ausgeliehen“. Das dürfte aber nicht stimmen. David March, der einflußreiche Korrespondent der Financial Times schrieb in seinem Buch „Die Bundesbank – Geschäfte mit der Macht“, daß sie nur kleine Teile auf eigenem Gelände aufbewahre. „Der Rest ist auf die Tresore der FED in New York, der Bank of England und zu einem kleinen Teil auch in der Banque de France verteilt. In den Tresorräumen der Bundesbank liegen nur etwa 80 Tonnen, d.h. knapp über 2% des Gesamtgoldes.“

Der amerikanische Goldexperte James Turk behauptet gegenüber G&M[13], die Bundesbank habe bereits 1700 to Gold, also die Hälfte ihrer Reserven, auf amerikanischen Wunsch hin ausgeliehen.

D.h. das Gold ist faktisch nicht mehr im Besitz der Deutschen Bundesbank. Und man bekommt es u.U. nicht mehr zurück; bei einem Bankrott z.B. Die Notenbanken Portugals und Polens erlebten dies, als deren Vertragspartner, das US-Haus Drexel, vor vielen Jahren in Konkurs ging. Kein privater Investor würde Gold in New York lagern, warum dann die Bundesbank?

Washington wünscht nicht, daß Deutschland seine Goldbestände abzieht, die Amerikaner betrachten sie – nach einem früheren Regierungsmitglied sozusagen als eine Art Pfand. Der frühere Vorstand der Bundesbank, Karl Blessing, (1958 – 1970), schrieb auf amerikanischen Druck hin jenen Brief – ein geheimes Abkommen -, in dem er die „Immobilisierung“ der deutschen Reserven gegenüber der FED versprach. Er versprach, daß die Bundesbank die Reserven aus den USA nicht abziehen werde, solange die USA Stützpunkte in Deutschland unterhalte. Es ist schon unerhört, daß die „deutsche“ Bedingung für eine solche Ungeheuerlichkeit die fortgesetzte Besetzung Deutschlands durch die Besatzungsmacht USA ist.

Wenn, was oben gesagt wurde und ja längst als Faktum feststeht, der Dollar kollabiert, werden weltweit alle Banken schließen, weil sie dann auch sichtbar bankrott sind. Dann steht die Deutsche Bundesbank mit ihren Devisenreserven, die zu 99% (!) in Dollar „angelegt“ sind, ohne jegliche Deckung der Währung da. (Das gilt in praktisch derselben Weise für die EZB, die ja auch kaum eine echte Deckung der Währung besitzt. Hier wurde schon bei ihrer Schaffung Kritik geübt, weil sogar Aktien – die doch oft großen Kursschwankungen unterliegen – als Reserven angeführt wurden, zu einem Zeitpunkt, als die garantierten Staatsobligationen u.ä. allein dafür gehalten werden konnten.) Gerade in so einem Augenblick wäre die Golddeckung nötiger denn je, nur es liegt außer Reichweite der Bundesbank.

Als Charles de Gaulle die französischen Goldreserven aus den USA zurückholen wollte – und sich anders als die Deutschen davon nicht abbringen ließ – hatte die CIA dem französischen Präsidenten die von Cohn-Bendit[14] angeführten Mai-Unruhen von 1968 angezettelt, die schließlich zu seinem Sturz führten!

Zurück zum Geschehen hierzulande: es ist doch erstaunlich, was Deutschland und Österreich nach dem Krieg und unter großen Entbehrungen in der Lage waren aufzubauen. In die Geschichte ging dieser Wiederaufbau als Wirtschaftswunder ein. Parallel dazu wurden eine vorbildliche Sozialversicherung, Arbeitsschutz- und Arbeitsrechtsgesetze, Reduktion der wöchentlichen und täglichen Arbeitszeit, Kündigungs- und Arbeitslosenschutz, usw. geschaffen. Dies alles soll in einer entwickelten Wirtschaft angeblich nicht mehr leistbar sein.

Oder hängt es nicht viel eher damit zusammen, daß die ganze Welt – insbesondere Deutschland mit seinem hohen Exportanteil – Güter liefert, dafür aber - zumindest was die USA betrifft - nur bedrucktes Papier bekommt. „Fiat money“, wie es die FED aus dünner Luft und in rasender Geschwindigkeit produziert. Die jüngsten Meldungen über die Zunahme der amerikanischen M3-Geldmenge um 60 Mrd. $ sind ja atemberaubend. Deutschland und Österreich zahlen auch den Löwenanteil der EU-Kosten; angeblich für das größte „Friedensprojekt“. Es hat aber eher den Anschein, daß es ein zweites Versailles ist: Reparationszahlungen in unbegrenzter Höhe und von unbegrenzter Dauer. (Erinnern wir uns noch jener EU-Ratssitzung unter deutschem Vorsitz, zu der Schröder noch mit der Forderung „Ende der Scheckbuch-Diplomatie“ angetreten war? Die mit dem merkwürdigen, CIA-inszenierten Rücktritt Lafontaines destabilisierte Bundesregierung stimmte allen Forderungen der EU-Finanzierung zu und ließ sich obendrein in den Kosovo-Krieg manövrieren, der am selben Tag von den USA ausgebrochen wurde.) Neben diesen noch öffentlich „argumentierten“ Tributzahlungen werden Deutschland und Österreich aber nun schon seit Kriegsende „Wiedergutmachungs-Leistungen“ abgepreßt, zuletzt unter dem Vorwand von „Sklaven-Arbeit“, für die es außer Anlaßgesetzgebung keine wie immer gearteten Rechtsansprüche gibt.

Es dürfte einem Familienerhalter und Alleinverdiener auch schwerfallen mit seiner Familie durchzukommen, wenn er seit Jahren und mit immer größerer Unverschämtheit vorgetragene Forderungen einer schier unbegrenzten Zahl von Nehmern mit Vorrang nachkommen müßte. Das ist aber im Großen der Zustand unserer Volkswirtschaft und unseres Volkes. Nur ist es auch damit noch längst nicht am Ende, denn delegitimierte „Volksvertreter“, in Wahrheit die Beauftragten Libinterns, in unseren landesverräterischen Regierungen puschen immer noch und immer unverschämter die längst bankrotten neoliberalen Ideologien von der Privatisierung, Deregulierung und Liberalisierung. – In Österreich wurde zuletzt (mithilfe der Deutschen Bank) ein großes Aktienpaket (10%) der VOEST-Alpine in einem Sekunden-Deal bei Tiefstständen des Aktienkurses verhökert. Die in den USA eben ad oculos vorgeführte Wirkung des privatisierten Energiesektors, ist nach wie vor politisches Ziel einer anscheinend bestochenen Bande von Helfershelfern, die die letzten Assets unserer Volkswirtschaft auch noch in fremde Hände spielen wollen. Die neuen „Freihandels“-Regeln für Services entrechten uns längst bezüglich unserer letzten und ureigensten Ressourcen, des Wassers.

All dies zusammen sind die Folgen der vom Finanzkapital dominierten, globalen Wirtschaft. Es wäre an der Zeit, dies zu erkennen und eine andere Diskussion über die angeblich nötigen „Reformen“ zu führen. Die islamische Welt hat es anscheinend begriffen. Sie führt mit der Ablehnung des Dollars – Husseins Weigerung, Dollar für das Öl zu nehmen, und Mahathirs Schöpfung[15] des Gold-Dinars und des Silber Dirhams – den einzig wirksamen Krieg gegen den einzigen Super-Rogue USA und seinen weltweiten Terror. Der Rest ist Larifari. Das Experiment John Law´s ist auch unter dem FED-Vorsitzenden Alan Greenspan ein weiteres Mal gescheitert.


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[1]The Observer, 26.1.2003: "Even while George Bush growls out his bellicose message, his country has never been in such an enfeebled state."

[2] William Thomas, The Bucks Stop Here (Es geht nichts mehr), www.Lifeboatnews.com, 26.5.2003.

[3] CBC Feb. 11, 2003, "fiscal madness" - finanzwirtschaftlicher Wahnsinn.

[4] www.LeMetropolCafe.com berichtet Ende Juli 2003 und zitiert den hier mit Anmerkungen auszugsweise wiedergegebenen Kommentar von Richard Russel.

[5] 44 Billionen = 44.000 Mrd. $. In US-Terminologie: 44 Trillionen $.

[6] Dies sind die offiziellen Daten des Budgets mit den nach und nach zusätzlich bekanntgewordenen Kriegskosten im Irak, die im Entwurf ja noch gar nicht enthalten waren. Nach Schätzungen der FED sind unbedeckte, außerbudgetäre, jedoch fällige Ausgaben zusammen mit dem offiziellen Budget-Defizit ca. eine Billion $, d.h. ~50% des Budgets.

[7] Manche haben den Dollar schon seit langem als „legales Falschgeld“ bezeichnet, weil es zwar von der FED mit Billigung des Treasury ausgegeben wird, also „legal“ ist, aber nichts destoweniger ein Falschgeld ist, weil es ja mangels Deckung und insbesondere dem Willen, mit echten Leistungen zu bezahlen, in Wahrheit keinen Wert hat. Als am 15. Aug. 1971 die Einlösepflicht in Gold ganz aufgehoben wurde, ist aus diesem Kreditgeld "fiat money", ungedecktes legales Falschgeld geworden. Es ist aber nicht etwa deshalb Falschgeld geworden, nur weil die bisherige minimale Golddeckung von - sagen wir 10% - nicht mehr da ist, sondern ganz einfach, weil beim Gelderzeuger die Absicht zur Leistung weggefallen ist.

Über dieses Thema hat Dipl.-Kfm. Reinhard Deutsch in der Islamischen Zeitung - http://www.islamische-zeitung.de -einen höchst aufschlußreichen Artikel verfaßt, der in klarer Weise die Zusammenhänge erklärt. Er ist die Wiedergabe eines Referates, Reprivatisierung des Geldes, das er anläßlich des Elliott-Treffens im Februar 2001 in Ochsenfort gehalten hatte.
[8] Jim Sinclair´s Mineset http://www.jsmineset.com vom 30. Juli 2003.

[9] Siehe auch FN 15.

[10] OTC: Over the Counter; d.h. von jeder beliebigen Bank „über den Tresen“ in den Verkehr gebracht und nicht einmal nach Art und Umfang mehr erfaßt.

[11] Gerhoch Reisegger, Wir werden schamlos irregeführt, Hohenrain-Verlag Tübingen, 2003.

[12] Sofern diese CIA-gemachte Wunderfigur überhaupt eine reale Rolle im US-Krieg „gegen den Terror“ gespielt hat, was uns mehr als zweifelhaft erscheint.

[13] www.bandulet.de/Text-Seiten/GoldMinen.htm , G&M-Serie: Das Gold der Deutschen, April 2003.

[14] Dieser Zusammenhang wurde durch einen Vorfall in Italien blitzlichtartig sichtbar. Ca. 10 Jahre nach den 68er-Revolutionen in ganz Europa fand in Rom ein Vortrag von Herbert Marcuse statt. Bei diesem war die schon verstorbene Nichte Graf Plettenbergs, Frau Elisabeth Gagern, als Dolmetscherin der ital. Regierung anwesend. Hiervon berichtete sie folgendes: Cohn-Bendit war auch zugegen und griff in der Diskussion Herbert Marcuse mit den Worten an: „Sie haben uns an der Nase herumgeführt. Sie waren/sind ein Agent der CIA.“ - Woher wußte er das so genau? – Man muß dazu in Erinnerung rufen: die ganze Frankfurter Schule ist nach dem Krieg als Instrument der Psychologischen Kriegführung gegen die Deutschen ("Umerziehung") in Deutschland re-implantiert worden. Natürlich waren diese Leute alle Exponenten der US-Politik und wurden von jenen gesteuert, plaziert und protegiert, die dieses Programm bis heute in und mit Deutschland exekutieren! Interessant ist freilich, daß hier offenbar durch einen Regiefehler die inneren Streitereien der US-gesteuerten europäischen Destabilisierung mit einem kurzen Blitzlicht sichtbar wurden. Selbstverständlich wurde ob dieser Anmerkung Cohn-Bendit umgehend aus dem Saal hinauskomplimentiert. (Pers. Mitteilung Graf Plettenberg)

[15] Im Gegenwert von 4,25 Gramm 22-karätigem Gold wurde der Gold-Dinar von Prof. Omar Ibrahim Fadillo inspiriert, dem Gründer einer Organisation, die - nach IslamOnline - "glaubt, daß die Einheit der Islamischen Welt sich nur durch eine Vereinigung auf wirtschaftlicher Ebene erreichen lasse. Er fordert ebenfalls die Errichtung eines islamischen Marktes mit einer Währung, dem Gold-Dinar, von dem er hofft, daß er den Dollar ersetzen wird".



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© 2003 / V.i.S.d.P. Gerhoch Reisegger
staatsbriefe.de
[25.8.2003]

[Schieler]

Der Goldpreis zieht in allen bedeutenden Währungen - Zufall oder Alarmzeichen ? - an. Die Diskussion über Währungsreformen kommt aus den Startlöchern heraus
(02.09.2003) Gold zieht seit einiger Zeit in allen bedeutenden Währungen an. Dieses Phänomen haben wir schon vor einiger Zeit als das Signal dafür beschrieben, dass sich im monetären Umfeld Grundlegendes verändert.

Die meisten Kommentatoren haben bei der Darstellung des Geschehens am Goldmarkt wie gewohnt nur den Dollar-Preis für das Edelmetall im Auge. Weil sie nicht auf dessen Entwicklung zum Beispiel in Euro achten, bleibt ihnen offenbar der Blick auf Wesentlicheres versperrt.

Die meisten Kommentatoren fallen nach Art des Pawlow`schen Hundes auch in die gewohnten Denkmuster zurück und setzen den anziehenden Dollar-Preis für Gold mit steigenden Inflationserwartungen gleich. Der Kauf von Gold ist aber gewiss kein optimaler Schutz vor Inflationsgefahren. Die modernen Finanzmärkte bieten hier sehr viel bessere Möglichkeiten.

Nur wenigen Kommentatoren scheint der Gedanke zu kommen, dass der Anstieg des Goldpreises in allen bedeutenden Währungen, einmal abgesehen von den gewiss nicht unbedeutenden Aktivitäten spekulativer Fonds, auch einen anderen Hintergrund haben könnte. Nämlich ein wachsendes Misstrauen in den flüchtigen Wert der führenden Papierwährungen.

Dieses Misstrauen kann, wie so oft in längst vergangenen Jahren, auch mit Inflationserwartungen zusammenhängen, muss aber nicht. In der gegenwärtigen Situation spricht einiges dafür, dass mehr und mehr Anleger aller Klassen bemerken, wie sehr der Wert der führenden Währungen durch unermesslich wachsende Haushaltsdefizite und somit Staatsschulden ausgehöhlt wird.

In früheren Zeiten waren emporschießende Haushaltsdefizite das Signal für zunehmende Inflation. Diesmal ist es jedoch anders. Hohe Überkapazitäten und Schulden des Privatsektors aller bedeutenden Volkswirtschaften sowie massiver internationaler Wettbewerb lassen die Preise auf deflationäre Weise tendenziell sinken. Dass sie zwischendurch aus besonderen Gründen auch wieder einmal in Grenzen steigen, ändert an der zugrunde liegenden Tendenz nichts.

Da inzwischen nicht mehr zu leugnen ist, dass die unverdrossen weiter wachsenden Staatsschulden selbst bei spartanischster Haushaltsführung erst in drei oder vier oder fünf Generationen wieder auf ein akzeptables Niveau gedrückt werden können, taucht nun auch in Talkshows die Frage auf, ob die Probleme nicht mittels einer breit angelegten Währungsreform aus der Welt geschafft werden könnten.

Wenn der Begriff Währungsreform schon in Talkshows die Runde macht und damit in eine breitere Öffentlichkeit getragen wird, wie intensiv hat sich dann wohl das "Smart Money" bereits mit diesem Thema befasst und vordisponiert?

Gold, aber auch andere stark benötigte und nicht beliebig reproduzierbare Rohstoffe, sind im Gegensatz zu allem, was auf Papier dokumentiert ist und meist nur versprochen wird, aller Erfahrung nach ideale Vehikel, um eine Währungsreform ohne gravierende Verluste zu überstehen.

Das Thema wird uns mit fortschreitender Zeit gewiss noch heftiger beschäftigen.


Arnd Hildebrandt

Herausgeber
Copyright 2003 Tauros GmbH - www.taurosweb.de

[Magor]

Das Wesentliche bei der einsetzenden Aufwärtsbewegung der Edelmetallpreise ist, daß aufgrund des wachsenden Mißtrauens in die monetäre Lage, und dem zunehmend wachsendem Mißtrauen gegenüber "Papier-Anteilen" nun immer mehr physische Ware verlangt wird!
Schon früher konnte man beobachten, daß die Investitionen von noch so vielen Millionen in Papier-Anteilsrechten den Kurs von Silber z.B. kaum zu bewegen vermochte. Sehr wohl bewegte jedoch den Preis die physische Herausnahme von relativ geringen Mengen des Materials vom Markt, was die nach Sicherheiten trachtende Bevölkerung traditionnell bei Konflikten zwischen Indien und Pakistan immer tat.

Die Schwelle für eine Herausgabe / Herausnahme von Material in physischer Form vom "Metalldepot" wird mittlerweile bei den Banken merklich höher gesetzt. Die plötzlich auftretenden "Unwegsamkeiten" sind da mannigfaltig, was ich aus eigener Erfahrung berichten kann. Versucht es mal, Ihr werdet staunen!

Was wird erst werden, wenn die Idee aus immer zwingender werdenden Gründen Schule macht?

Grüße
Magor

[Potosi]

Weltbank: Goldpreis fällt mittelfristig unter 300 US$, da Niedrigkosten Minen in Produktion kommen.

aus Kitco: World Bank sees gold price falling-vom 3.9.03
.............

Da warten wir doch erst mal ab. Und wo bitte, hat wer diese neuen Niedrigkosten-Minen versteckt ?

Bluemoons - oder wers halt kann - wollt ihr den Artikel
hier reinstellen ?

Potosi

[MX 150]

World Bank sees gold price falling, nickel strong
Wed September 3, 2003 01:02 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The World Bank forecast on Wednesday the gold price, trading around $370 an ounce, should fall below $300 an ounce as new, low-cost mines are started and producers slow the rate they`ve been buying gold back to unwind price protection contracts.
Gold stormed from around $250 an ounce lows last year, reaching a 6-1/2 year high at $388.50 in February as the U.S. dollar fell and threats of war against Iraq grew.

But the bank said gold`s rise should weaken over the medium-term.

"Over the medium-term prices are expected to fall below $300 an ounce as supplies from all sources exceed demand," the World Bank said in a Global Economic Prospects report.

"Even below $300/oz, mine production is expected to continue to increase moderately as new low-cost operations come on stream," it said.

The World Bank also said key for the gold price was whether central bankers renegotiate a 1999 European Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement to limit their gold sales.

The agreement, which restricts some central banks to selling only 400 tons of gold per year, expires a year from now. Market participants have speculated it will be renegotiated at next month`s International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meetings in Dubai.

The bank said gold companies had been unwinding their gold hedging programs, cutting hedge books by 4.5 million ounces in the first quarter this year.

"It is expected that producer dehedging will slow in the second half of this year and in 2004, and remove much of the support under gold prices," it said

Major gold producers have been buying back gold and cutting their hedging programs since the price stirred from $250 an ounce. Smaller hedge books give producers bigger exposure to a rising gold price.

The World Bank was more optimistic about the nickel price, saying it should jump significantly over the next couple of years with no new projects on the horizon until about 2006.

The metal hit a 3-year high of $9,950 a tonne on Tuesday but was down at $9,880 on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday.

The price has risen about 75 percent since October 2001 because of low stocks, strong demand from the stainless steel industry -- the biggest user of nickel -- and tight supplies.

"The nickel market is expected to slip into deficit this year and remain so in 2004 and 2005, mainly because of a dearth of major new projects to come on stream over this period," it said.

On copper, the bank said demand outside China and neighboring Asian countries was weak and the market could remain in surplus for the rest of the year but slip into a deficit in 2004 as demand picks up.

However, stronger copper prices depended on the extent of a global economic recovery and production cuts in Latin America and the United States, it said.

"The restart of idled capacity in Chile and the U.S. could prevent prices from moving sharply higher," it cautioned.

Copper has cleared the key $1,800 a tonne level and was last at $1,814 a tonne in London,

The bank forecast the aluminum market would move into deficit in 2005 but warned of a number of uncertainties in the near term such as the extent of demand growth, start-ups of idled capacity and the size of Chinese net exports.

[Potosi]

@ MX 150 # 6921

Danke MX,

dafür werden morgen Deine ( und meine ) Macmin wieder um einen halben A$cent steigen.

Als Gesicht als Urteil über den Goldteil dieses Artikels hättest Du eher dieses wählen können:

Gruß Potosi

[silverpwd]

Wie hoch waren die Produktionskosten für Gold in den 70iger Jahren ? Wohl um einiges niedriger.
Gold wird von allen Banken weiterhin als Anlage gebasht.

[MX 150]

Macmin steigt morgen? Jo!


Mfg.: MX 150

[Culogrande1]

Scheisse...mein schönes Posting weg....Tippex es kommt morgen noch besser

Bussi Culo

[Tippgeber1]

[Culogrande1]

and up...oder soll ich jetzt Katerchens Thread kapern und dann weiterführen.

Sein nick würde im Grab rotieren.

Bussi von Culo auf den Culo

[Wasserzeichen]

>World Bank`s incompetent gold dirge


By: Tim Wood

Posted: 2003/09/04 Thu 21:00 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003
NEW YORK -- Gold bugs have been in uproar since the World Bank released Global Economic Prospects, its annual forecast for just about anything with a price tag attached to it. This year’s exertion carried 43% more pages than last year, but quantity is no substitute for quality.

The Bank is customarily down on gold for 2004. It’s churlish to fault the basic logic which is that higher gold prices damp demand, as we’ve seen in India, whilst the pace of gold dehedging has to slow simply because there is less of it. At the same time, official gold sales are set to continue and possibly increase. Then the Bank worries that higher interest rates will stimulate renewed hedging, which is bearish on metal prices.

Consequently, the Bank sees a continued, sizeable surplus. “Over the medium term prices are expected to fall below US$300/oz as supplies from all sources exceed demand.

Logic is one thing, but forecasts have a singular problem – eventually they turn into history. For the Bank, history is particularly unkind to it.

In its 2002 report, the Bank got it hopelessly wrong. “Once calm returns to world markets [in the wake of 9/11], gold prices should revert toward previous levels, as gold demand will be adversely affected by higher prices and the slowing global economy.”

The obvious point is that there was no previous “level” – prices had been sliding for months to multi-decade dollar price lows. On top of that, there is outright confusion since in the very next sentence the Bank warns that existing higher prices are stimulating new supply!

Similarly, the Bank keeps touting $300/oz as the iron law of gold pricing. On what basis does it make the claim, especially through several years of violent price swings? None, we suspect, beyond near-sightedness.

It is apparent that the World Bank bureaunomists who compile the report are guilty of the oldest trick in a freshman’s book – the cut-‘n-paste. The Bank’s barracking of gold has nothing to do with cabals, cartels or conspiracies; just old fashioned incompetence and the professional economists disdain for and annoyance with gold.

Compare and contrast these verbatim extracts:

2001: Price movements above $300 per troy ounce will probably face reduced demand, provide greater incentives for producers to sell forward, and encourage central banks to increase sales. Real prices are expected to decline by about 1.8 percent per year between 2000 and 2010.

2002: As has been the case for some time, higher prices will stimulate new supplies, encourage producer sales, and lessen demand, while low prices will reduce investment and encourage consumption. Mine production is expected to continue to increase moderately, as new lowcost operations come on-stream. An important determinant of prices will be the decision by Central Banks whether to further stem official gold sales when the Washington Agreement expires in 2004.

2003: Even when prices fall below $300 per ounce, mine production is expected to continue to increase moderately as new low-cost operations come onstream. An important determinant of medium-term prices will be the decision by central banks on whether official gold sales should be stemmed further when the Washington Agreement expires in 2004.

2004: Even below US$300/toz, mine production is expected continue to increase moderately as new lowcost operations come on stream. Finally, official central bank sales continue to take place. An important determinant of medium-term prices will be the decision by central banks whether to further stem official gold sales when the Washington Agreement expires in 2004.

Mr Wolfensohn and Mr Stern, sirs, you have a problem, and it’s not gold.

Meanwhile, do have pity on us peons who are subject to the high minded vacuity of World Bank expertise that will inform the upcoming WTO Trade Minister`s meeting in Cancun, September 10-14. We hope the beaches are nice, because the information is lousy.

Email a comment to be added to this story >

[Tippgeber1]

@culu

ja kapern ist immer gut,
lass ihn rotieren

Tippi

[Wasserzeichen]

Vermutlich hat Eichel-Hansi jetzt den cleveren Zentralbank-
bericht gelesen und meint er muss jetzt gross rumtönen!Die überlegen sich das auch nochmal wenn der Spot auf 500-600Taler steht...

[Magor]

Hier ein interessanter Aufsatz mit recht nachvollziehbaren
Folgerungen zur Goldpreisentwicklung und den schwindenden Einflüssen des Gold-Kartells:

"An Update On The Commodity Case For Gold
By Frank Veneroso"

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current

[Tippgeber1]

@alle

Also ich werde das Gefühl nicht los, dass
Gold vor einer Explosion steht...alles
deutet darauf hin. Die Börse läuft nach
oben und das Gold sackt kaum ab!!!
Das sollte allen zu denken geben!

Liebe Grüße
Tippgeber

[hpoth]

Ja, kann alles möglich sein, glaube aber der Zeitpunkt istg noch nicht gekommen,es wird nóch einges dauern.mfg hpoth

[Insiderin007]

September 04, 2003

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=960

Prospective German Sales of Gold
by Julian D. W. Phillips


Speculation surrounding the future sales of gold by the leading Central Bank holders of Gold, received clarity today.

Within the auspices of the Central Bank Gold Agreement, the gold market has been speculating on the review and renewal of the "Washington Agreement". The market felt that the leading holders of gold want to sell their gold holding, but it became clear that the bulk of these sales would have to come from the leading Central Bank signatories to the Washington Agreement, Germany, France and Italy. The most talked about vocal of these three has been Germany, leading the market to believe they would be significant sellers.

Today, Thursday 4th September, Finance Minister Hans Eichel clarified Germany`s position regarding sales of its own gold. He said that he would envisage the sale of only small quantities of gold by the Bundesbank if a new international agreement on gold sales is reached.

"The gold market is sensitive and if the Bundesbank takes part in a new gold agreement, they can only enter the market in small amounts," he said.

This is good news for the gold market whilst tacitly indicating that the other two, with a greater propensity to holding gold in their reserves, will not be significant sellers, if at all, of their own gold holdings.

With only minor Central Banks still indicating they would be sellers of gold, the market will have to get used to the idea of greatly diminished gold supplies emanating from the "Official" sources.

Additionally, his statements have encouraged the market to believe there will be a renewal of the Central Bank Gold Agreement.

These statements will be discussed further in the latest Issue of Gold-Authentic Money`s Newsletter and in the "Gold - The Weekly Perspective" produced later today.



Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

[PeterHa]

Ich möchte folgendes Szenario zur Diskussion stellen, dass davon ausgeht, dass v.a. kleinere Anleger von den Großen gelinkt werden sollen:

Die nächsten Wochen eine flache Seitwärts/Aufwärtsbewegung beim Gold bis eine beginnende Korrektur bei den großen Indizes Gold einen zunächst letzten Schub verleihen könnte (der deutliche Schritt über die 400?). Eine gewisse Verlagerung von den Aktien weg hin zum Gold könnte stattfinden zusammen mit einem wachsenden Medieninteresse und grundsätzlich positiven Meldungen zum Thema Gold. Das ist der günstige Zeitpunkt für die Großen (mit einigen Wochen Verspätung) eine große Korrektur beim Gold einzuleiten. Im Zuge dessen könnte der langfrsitige Aufwärtstrend temporär unterschritten werden und die Prognose von einem Goldpreis unter 300 Dollar mehr Anhänger finden (auch Goldshorter und co. werden dann schöne Stunden gegönnt). Die erstaunliche Parallelität: steigende Indizes, steigender Goldpreis könnte umgekehrt seine Fortsetzung finden. Danach dürfte das Gold - zunächst fast unbemerkt - seinen Aufwärtstrend zurückerobern um schließlich neue Höhen zu erklimmen!

[Big-Apple]

Edelmetalle: Goldnotierungen gönnen sich eine Atempause
08.09.2003

Der Goldpreis dürfte diese Woche in der Handelsspanne von 369 bis 380 $ pro Feinunze verharren. Der charttechnische steile Aufwärtstrend des gelben Edelmetalls bleibt allerdings nach wie vor intakt.

Eine Wende ergäbe sich hier erst, wenn die Goldnotierungen unter die Marke von 365 und später dann 359 $ zurückfallen sollten. Anfang vergangener Woche verhalfen Käufe von Hedge Funds dem Gold zu kräftigen Kursgewinnen. Mit einem Höchststand von 379 $ verbuchte der Goldpreis das höchste Niveau seit sieben Monaten. Ein stärkerer Dollar führte dann allerdings zu Gewinnmitnahmen, die das Metall auf 369 $ zurückfallen ließen. Dabei spielte auch die anhaltende Kaufzurückhaltung längerfristig orientierter Anleger und von Käufern physischen Metalls eine Rolle.

Die einsetzende Euro-Erholung führte im weiteren Verlauf zu Käufen, die sich am Freitag nach der Veröffentlichung der enttäuschenden US-Arbeitsmarktzahlen noch verstärkten und den Goldpreis auf über 377 $ steigen ließen.

Eine pessimistische Einschätzung zum Goldpreis brachte die Weltbank in ihrem jüngsten Bericht aus der Reihe "Global Economic Prospects" zum Ausdruck. Die Analysten sehen mittelfristig einen Fall des Preises auf unter 300 $ voraus und begründen dies mit neuen Minen, die über niedrige Produktionskosten verfügen. Auch lief eine Reihe von Rückkäufen aus Terminabsicherungsgeschäften durch die Minengesellschaften aus.

Australiens Goldproduktion steigt

In Australien ist die Goldproduktion zum ersten Mal seit fünf Jahren gestiegen. Mit 285 Tonnen betrug das Plus im Finanzjahr 2002 gegenüber dem Vorjahr rund 5 Prozent.

Bundesfinanzminister Hans Eichel sagte in einem Interview, dass er sich auch im Falle einer Verlängerung des Goldabkommens der europäischen Zentralbanken wegen der Empfindlichkeit des Marktes nur einen beschränkten Goldverkauf durch die Bundesbank vorstellen könnte. Analysten sind da weniger skeptisch. Sie verweisen darauf, dass der Markt bei den Verkäufen der Bank von England und der Schweiz unter Beweis gestellt hat, dass er auch größere Mengen absorbieren kann.

Palladium legte 15 Prozent auf über 220 $ pro Feinunze zu. Platin konnte zwar mit 714 $ pro Unze noch einmal knapp ein neues 23-Jahres-Hoch markieren. Die für diesen Fall erwarteten spektakulären Anschlusskäufe blieben allerdings aus.

Quelle: http://www.ftd.de/bm/ga/1062937566634.html?nv=hpm

Weitere Goldseiten: http://www.Gold-Pool.com
.

[bluemoons]

11:33 05.09 BM-Geldtipp: Großinvestoren haben Silber entdeckt

Microsoft-Gründer Bill Gates macht es. George Soros, jener legendäre Spekulant, der in den 80er Jahren das britische Pfund ins Wanken brachte, macht es. Und Warren Buffet, Amerikas erfolgreichster und milliardenschwerer Langzeitinvestor, macht es auch. Alle drei Herren investieren seit einiger Zeit in das Edelmetall Silber.

Das ist zunächst einmal überraschend, denn Silber hatte die letzten 20 Jahre einfach ein Looser-Image: permanenter Kursverfall von 50 auf 4 Dollar. Doch seit ein, zwei Jahren kommt wieder Leben in den Kurs, inzwischen ist die Unze wieder 5 Dollar wert. Und das ist kein Zufall: Seit 10 Jahren nämlich verbraucht die Menschheit mehr Silber als sie fördert. Nachfrage: 860 Mio. Unzen pro Jahr, aber nur 560 Mio. kommen aus dem Boden, dazu ein bisschen Recycling – macht ein Defizit von 160 Mio. Unzen, Jahr für Jahr.

Bislang wurde das gedeckt aus den Silberreserven einiger Staaten. Doch die gehen zur Neige. Noch zwei, drei Jahre – dann ist Schluss. Schlaue Investoren wissen das, und deshalb steigt der Kurs schon jetzt. Die BörsenMan-Redaktion rechnet mittelfristig mit einem Silberpreis zwischen 5 und 6 Dollar, langfristig sind auch 10 Dollar und mehr drin. Nicht nur Bill Gates, George Soros und Warren Buffet machen damit Geld, auch Kleinanleger können profitieren.

Silber galt in den letzten Jahren als eher uninteressantes Anlageobjekt. Dem Hoch von 50 US-Dollar zu Beginn der 80er Jahre folgte ein jahrelanger Kursverfall bis auf 4,06 Dollar im November 2001. Nun legte der Silberpreis seit Mitte März 2003 mehr als 10 Prozent zu.

Dieser positive Trend sollte sich fortsetzen. Denn auf dem Weltmarkt zeichnet sich eine Verknappung des Angebots ab. Schin seit mehr als zehn Jahren kann die Nachfrage nicht mehr durch die laufende Silberförderung gedeckt werden. Im vergangenen Jahr belief sich die Gesamtnachfrage auf 863 Millionen Unzen Silber, während nur 586 Millionen Unzen produziert wurden.

Die Differenz von 277 Millionen Unzen wurde durch den Abbau von Vorräten und die Wiederverwertung von gebrauchtem Silber ausgeglichen. Außerdem schätzen Silberexperten wegen der steigenden Nachfrage das Angebotsdefizit im Jahr 2003 auf 163 Millionen Unzen. Das ist der höchste Wert seit dem Jahr 1990. Auch die weltweiten Reserven (ca. 500 Millionen Unzen) neigen sich dem Ende entgegen, und die Produktion kann zudem nur noch geringfügig gesteigert werden.

Nachgefragt und genutzt wird Silber vor allem in der Industrie (u.a. Biochemie, Wasseraufbereitung), der Fotografie (Filmentwicklung) sowie der Silberwaren- und Schmuckindustrie. Wächst die chinesische Wirtschaft weiter im gleichen Tempo, wird das Land schon bald als großer Silberverkäufer am Markt auftreten.

Allein der bekannte Investor Warren Buffet verfügt bereits heute über Silberreserven von 130 Millionen Unzen. Neben ihm entschieden sich zwei weitere der reichsten Männer der Welt für eine Anlage in Silber: Bill Gates und George Soros. Da sich die Lagerbestände an der Warenterminbörse COMEX (ca. 105 Mio. Unzen) auf einem tiefen Niveau bewegen, könnte die Rechnung der Milliardäre in absehbarer Zukunft aufgehen. Ist der weltweite Silbervorrat aufgebraucht und steigt die Nachfrage aus China, wird der Preis für Silber steigen.

Da sich die Preisentwicklung von Silber traditionell am Goldpreis orientiert, dürften steigende Kurse des gelben Metalls zudem auch höhere Kurse bei Silber nach sich ziehen. Wir rechnen auf mittlerer Sicht mit Silberpreisen von 5,50 bis 6 Dollar je Feinunze.

Am Silberboom können sie durch den Kauf von so genannten Zertifikaten oder Mini-Futures von ABN Amro teilnehmen. Zum Beispiel mit dem Mini-Future Long, (WKN: 237239). In unseren Briefen SwissConcept und SwissTrading zeigen wir Ihnen, wie Sie Edelmetalle systematisch und mit begrenztem Risiko in Ihr Depot einbinden (Abo unter BM-Club).

http://www.boersenman.de/bm/home/articledetail.php?TOPICID=4…

[silvo]

380,-- geknackt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Durban steht hoffentlich vor dem Durchbruch!!



Viel Spaß noch heute!!

[kyron]

Leute, bisher wars eine Unterhaltung,
jetzt wirds ernst.

[kaepntnemo]

$383
in diesem sinne...
-nemo-

[wolf2001]

Blanchard and Co. Inc., der größte US-Goldhändler, hat einen wichtigen Etappensieg bei seiner im Dezember 2002 gegen Barrick und J.P. Morgan eingereichten Klage wegen Goldpreis-Manipulation errungen:

Ich bin zwar kein Jurist und kenne die US-Klageregelungen nicht im einzelnen, aber offensichtlich wird die Klage nicht schon im Vorfeld abgewiesen sondern tatsächlich zur Verhandlung zugelassen, da das Gericht die vorgebrachten Beweise wohl als stichhaltig angesehen haben muss (von wegen "Verschwörungstheorie" ).

Auf jeden Fall soll die ganze Sache jetzt vor Gericht aufgerollt werden und wahrscheinlich werden für alle an der Manipulation Beteiligten sehr unliebsame Details enthüllt. Evtl. fliegt der ganze Manipulationsbetrug (in den ja nicht nur die Angeklagten sondern z.B. auch die FED u.a. verwickelt sind) auf.

GATA verbreitet folgende von Blanchard abgegebene Presse-Erklärung:


NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 9, 2003 (PRNewswire via COMTEX)
-- Blanchard and Co. Inc., the largest retail dealer
in physical gold in the United States, received word
today from the U.S. District Court for the Eastern
District of Louisiana that its case against Barrick
Gold Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. may now move
into the discovery phase of the lawsuit.

The court denied defendants` motions to dismiss
Blanchard`s complaint that Barrick and Morgan have
violated U.S. antitrust laws by unlawfully combining
to manipulate the price of gold and to monopolize
the market in gold. The antitrust lawsuit was
originally brought in December 2002.

In denying defendants` motions, the court stated:
"Here, in the extraordinary market for gold and
gold derivatives, consumers/investors are readily
injured by market participants with sufficient
market power to depress price."

Blanchard`s CEO, Donald W. Doyle Jr., stated:
"The court`s decision brings us one step closer to
obtaining justice for our clients, and for all gold
investors, who have been damaged by Barrick and
Morgan."

Having already served J.P. Morgan and Barrick with
its requests for production, Blanchard expects to
move into the discovery process immediately.

* * *

SOURCE Blanchard and Co. Inc.

Neal R. Ryan of Blanchard and Co. Inc.,
1-800-880-4653


gruß wolf

[wolf2001]

Und hier noch die von GATA selbst verfasste Meldung zum Blanchard-Fall.
gruß wolf

Le Metropole Members,

[GATA] Victory! Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick and
Morgan can proceed, judge rules
Date: 9/8/2003 5:18:06 PM Central Standard Time
From: [e-mail]
To: [e-mail]

5:52p ET Monday, September 8, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Blanchard & Co.`s anti-trust lawsuit against Barrick
Gold and J.P. Morgan Chase alleging their
conspiracy to control the gold price can proceed
to trial, a federal judge in New Orleans ruled in
a decision released today.

The judge, Helen G. Berrigan, denied a "summary
judgment" motion by Barrick and Morgan Chase to
dismiss the lawsuit. She found that Blanchard, the
New Orleans-based coin and bullion dealer, had
proven its standing to sue and the appropriateness
of its claims under the Sherman Act.

The judge pointedly rejected Barrick`s claim to
be immune from suit as the agent of central banks
in the implementation of their policy on gold.

Welcoming Judge Berrigan`s decision, Blanchard
CEO Don Doyle thanked the Gold Anti-Trust Action
Committee and its consultant, Reginald H. Howe,
for their work in bringing the first federal lawsuit
alleging manipulation of the gold price. That lawsuit
was dismissed on technical grounds in U.S. District
Court in Boston in March 2002. Doyle said Blanchard
had learned much from the Howe case and used it to
build its own case.

Barrick and Morgan Chase have 10 days to apply
to Judge Berrigan for permission to appeal her
decision to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. If
her dismissal of the Barrick/Morgan Chase "summary
judgment" motion stands, the Blanchard lawsuit
would proceed with Blanchard empowered to compel
Barrick and Morgan Chase to produce evidence and
testimony prior to trial.

GATA considers Blanchard`s victory a triumph for
gold producers and investors, the free market, and
a more honest international financial system. The
Blanchard case now promises embarrassing disclosures
about secret collusion between Barrick, Wall Street,
and central banks.

GATA congratulates and is deeply grateful to
Blanchard & Co.

We`ll be studying Judge Berrigan`s decision
tonight and hope to share more about it with you
soon.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

[ThaiGuru]

Argentina Defaults on $3 Billion IMF Debt

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030909/economy_argentina_5.html

[Stephen]

Sehr gute Nachricht für den Goldpreis, hatte mich schon gefragt, was aus der Klage wurde! In Deutschland wären wir lange noch nicht so weit......
Und die Versuche den Goldpreis unten zu halten, werden trotz heftigem Volumen zwischen 14 und 18 Uhr deutlich erfolgloser

[silvo]

Lease-Rates bei Silber gehen momentan massiv nach oben!!

[hotspot33]

J.P. Morgan, Barrick gold conspiracy to get day in court

http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/story.html?id=CD4A…

[silverpwd]

#silvo

Was hat das mit den Leaserates aufsich ?

[kaepntnemo]

@silverpwd
was wird denn verkauft, bei AU & AG, um
a) physischen bedarf zu befriedigen und
b) den preis durch steigendes angebot zu druecken?
(Und nachher kauf ichs billig wieder zurueck /oder wickle ein guenstigers cash settlement ab/)
ergo:
steigender bedarf wird gestillt, preis geht nach unten.

gruss
-nemo-

[bluemoons]

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/dospassos.cfm?cfid=353342&cft…

[14400_I]

Die Zahl der Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung stiegen um 3000 auf 422,000 (Prognose: 395.000) nach revidierten (+5000) 419.000 in der Vorwoche – das ist der höchste Wert seit zwei Monaten. Der Vierwochendurchschnitt der Zahl der Erstanträge stieg um 4,500 auf 407,250 und damit auf ein Sechswochenhoch.

[Fandrich]

Unser Berliner Lokalblättchen hat ein neues Thema entdeckt :

Comeback des Goldes

© Berliner Morgenpost Donnerstag, 11. September 2003

Spekulationen katapultieren die Edelmetalle auf neue Rekord-Hochs


Goldreserven bei der früheren Bundesbank: Das Edelmetall ist wieder in die Gunst der Anleger gerückt.

Berlin - Totgesagte leben länger. Diese Weisheit bestätigt derzeit das Gold, das nach seiner vermeintlichen Beerdigung als Anlagemedium Ende der neunziger Jahre ein grandioses Comeback feiert. Im gestrigen Londoner Fixing war das gelbe Metall mit rund 380 Dollar pro Unze nur noch knapp von einem Siebenjahreshoch entfernt. Seit April 2001 hat der Goldpreis damit um knapp 50 Prozent zugelegt. Bei anderen Edelmetallen sieht es ähnlich aus: Der Silberpreis erreichte mit mehr als 5,20 Dollar pro Unze den höchsten Stand seit Februar 2000. Auch Platin kletterte auf ein Langzeithoch.

"Die stark gestiegenen Edelmetallpreise sind zum guten Teil auf spekulative Bewegungen zurückzuführen", erklärt Michael Lewis, Rohstoff-Analyst bei der Deutschen Bank in London. Diese würden sich selbst verstärken und könnten noch eine ganze Zeit lang anhalten. Doch auch fundamental gibt es eine Reihe von Gründen für anziehende Notierungen. "Der starke Goldpreis ist nicht zuletzt eine Reaktion auf das hohe Staatsdefizit in den Vereinigten Staaten", erklärt Wolfgang Häuser, Volkswirt bei der ING BHF-Bank.

Da auf Grund der hohen Liquidität in Amerika und Europa langfristig die Inflationsgefahren wachsen, wird auch die Frage einer Absicherung gegen Geldwertverfall wieder akut. Die unsichere Lage im Nahen Osten tut ein Übriges. Experten rechnen damit, dass das gelbe Metall bald sein Zwischenhoch vom Frühjahr dieses Jahres überspringt und neue Hochs ins Visier nimmt. "Die Chancen stehen gut, dass wir in den kommenden Monaten 400 Dollar pro Feinunze sehen", sagt Martin Siegel, Manager des Fonds PEH Q-Goldmines. Und das, obwohl Privatinvestoren noch gar keine große Aktivität auf dem Edelmetallmarkt entfaltet hätten. Sollten diese das Gold als Anlagemedium wieder entdecken, seien noch deutlich höhere Notierungen denkbar.

Anleger, die auf weiter steigende Preise bei Gold, Silber und Platin setzen wollen, sind allerdings gut beraten, zwischen den einzelnen Edelmetallen zu differenzieren. Am riskantesten ist Silber. "Der Silbermarkt ist weitaus enger als der Goldmarkt und unterliegt zudem enormen spekulativen Schwankungen", warnt Siegel. Auch Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, Leiter des Edelmetallhandels bei der Dresdner Bank, ist skeptisch. Vor allem die zurückgehende Nachfrage aus der Fotoindustrie, die rund ein Viertel der Weltsilberproduktion abnimmt, dürfte den Kurs mittelfristig unter Druck bringen. Sein Verdikt: "Für die Geldanlage ist Silber ungeeignet." Stabiler gestalten sich die Aussichten für Gold. Anleger haben hier zudem den Vorteil, dass sie in unterschiedlicher Form auf steigende Preise setzen können: zum Beispiel mit Optionsscheinen, Zertifikaten oder Minenaktien. Unter Letzteren hält Siegel vor allem die südafrikanische Harmony sowie die australische Kingsgate für interessant, da diese Gesellschaften überproportional von steigenden Preisen profitieren würden.

Wrzesniok-Roßbach empfiehlt Anlegern, Platin nicht aus den Augen zu verlieren: "In China und Japan wird Platin zunehmend als Schmuckmaterial entdeckt, das sollte die Nachfrage antreiben." Außerdem sei es für verschiedene Zukunftstechnologien unabdingbar: So wird das Edelmetall zum Beispiel für Dieselkatalysatoren und Brennstoffzellen benötigt. Der steigende industrielle Bedarf und die langsamere Produktion machten steigende Preise wahrscheinlich

[schuh]

Ich kaufe seit 3 Jahren Gold und Silber und seit 2 Jahren Minentitel.

Dazu brauchte ich keinen Siegel (obwohl der meineserachtens schon eine Ahnung von den Edelmetallen hat)


Aber wenn so ein Typ wie Wrzesniok-Wurzelbritzkdkdkdkdkdk

irgendein Meinung zu den Edelmetallen abgibt, kann ich nur lachen. Wenn da die Meinung vertreten wirdSilber als Geldanlage ist tot kann ich jedem nur raten

kauft auch Silber, Silber ist noch lange nicht tot, P.S. Gold war auch schon mal tot

[Fandrich]

Sei fair Schuh !

Martin Siegel war schon vor vielen Jahren einer der einsamen Rufer in der Goldlandschaft (übrigens auch auf diesem Bord als Goldhotline)!
Möglicherweise etwas sehr früh,seine Prognosen traten in seiner Frühphase oft nicht ein.
Die Fachwelt mochte seinen Theorien nicht immer so folgen.In einem Interview vor ca.2-3 Jahren bei N-TV hat man sich noch über ihn lustig gemacht.
Heute ist er erfolgreicher Fondmanager und als Fachmann anerkannt.
Blind folgen macht zwar keinen Sinn,aber seine Grundüberzeugung scheint aufzugehen.

Übrigens der andere Herr heißt Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach!

Gruß Fandrich

[ulfur]

Wenn W-Roßbach behauptet, daß ein Viertel der Silbernachfrage durch die Fotoindustrie bedingt ist, ist das nicht ganz richtig.

Nach dem Artikel von Douglas Kanarowski (What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver? http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0822.htm) beträgt die Silbernachfrage des Fotosektors 256 Mill. Oz. (2002). Allerdings wird ein großer Teil des Silbers wiedergewonnen. Auf der Silberangebotsseite sind unter der Position „Old silver scrap“ 160 Mill Oz. aus dem Fotoprozeß recyckeltes Silber enthalten. Der Nettoverbrauch des Fotosektors betrug damit in 2002 lediglich 96 Mill. Die Bedeutung des Fotografiebereichs wird somit von W-Roßbach überschätzt.