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Werte aus der Branche Nahrungsmittel
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 78,00 | +151,61 | |
| 12,125 | +121,66 | |
| 0,6190 | +26,33 | |
| 2,5500 | +20,85 | |
| 63,59 | +17,13 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 1,8313 | -13,41 | |
| 15,000 | -16,67 | |
| 1,1500 | -50,00 | |
| 2,0100 | -60,29 | |
| 2,6600 | -60,88 |
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.151.052 von viostep am 14.09.10 21:20:55The biggest rally in coffee in five years may be ending as the prospect of larger harvests spurs hedge funds to pare bets on higher prices, potentially cutting costs for J.M. Smucker Co., Kraft Foods Inc. and Starbucks Corp.
..Die Rally soll enden, da es höhere Ernte geben soll. Die Funds ziehen sich zurück..
Supplies of arabica, the world’s most-grown coffee, will exceed demand by 6.67 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags in the year ending in September 2011, according to ABN Amro Bank NV and VM Group. That’s the most in nine years and more than six times this season’s expected surplus. Speculators including hedge funds cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 8.4 percent since Aug. 17, regulatory data show.
Es werden 6,67 mio 60kg Beutel am ende des Jahres 2010 in den Lagern liegen. Dies ist die höchste Menge in neun Jahren. Spekulaten reduzierten ihre Long-Positionen um 8,4% seit Aug 17.
The rise in coffee coincided with surging food prices as flooding in Canada and drought across Russia and Europe ruined crops. Wheat as much as doubled since June, contributing to riots over bread costs in Mozambique, and a United Nations price- index of 55 foods advanced to its highest since September 2008 last month. No such shortages in arabica are forecast, with ABN Amro and VM Group anticipating a 7.4 percent increase in output to almost 86 million bags, the most since at least the season ended in 2001.
..uninteressant...
“You cannot justify the spike on the upside if you look at the supply situation,” said Christoph Eibl, co-founder of Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius Group, which manages more than $2 billion in assets. “People who have been betting on coffee may lose. In the long run, fundamentals always overrule.”
Man kann den Preisanstieg nicht rechtfertigen, wenn man sich die Versorgungssituation anschaut. Wer auf Kaffee wettet, könnte verliegen. Langfristig überzeugen die funtametale Gründe.
Arabica Gains
Arabica rose as much as 50 percent since June 7 in New York trading , reaching a 13-year high of $1.9865 a pound on Sept. 8, partly on speculation that rainfall in Colombia, the second- biggest producer after Brazil, would damage crops. Colombian coffee output gained 55 percent to 615,000 bags in August, the Bogota-based National Federation of Coffee Growers said this month.
...Kolumen hat um 55% zugelegt...
Coffee will average $1.52 a pound in the fourth quarter, or 20 percent less than now, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts. Arabica for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.908 as of 6 a.m. in New York.
..Kaffe wird 1,52 USD im Q4 kosten...
Speculators accumulated a net-long position of 44,505 contracts by Aug. 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s almost three times the five-year average and equal to 1.67 billion pounds of coffee. They cut that in two of the last three weeks, to 40,757 contracts by Sept. 7.
...Spekulaten sind stark long 3x höher als der 5 Jahresdurchschnitt...
The last time prices rose this fast, in a rally ending in March 2005, arabica slumped 38 percent in the next six months. Futures traded on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange are anticipating a decline next year. Contracts from March 2011 are in backwardation, meaning that nearby contracts are trading at a premium to longer-dated ones, a sign investors may be more concerned about near-term supply.
...Schon einmal hat Kaffe nach einer Rally im März 2005 39% verloren...
Cutting Costs
Cheaper beans could help cut costs for companies including Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, which raised U.S. prices twice since May on some types of Maxwell House and Yuban coffee. Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee-shop chain, said Aug. 17 that more spending on commodities, mostly coffee, would add about 4 cents a share to expenses in the year ending in September 2011.
...uninteressant...
Smucker, based in Orrville, Ohio, said Aug. 3 that it raised prices by an average of 9 percent for most of its Folgers and Dunkin’ Donuts coffee products. In a conference call with investors on June 17, Vince Byrd, president of Smucker’s coffee business, said the rally was being driven more by funds than supply issues. Arabica had already climbed about 20 percent by then. The company declined to comment further.
Shares of Seattle-based Starbucks are 10 percent higher this year in New York trading, while Kraft gained 13 percent and Smucker dropped 0.7 percent.
Commodity Demand
Higher prices for commodities including coffee, oil and natural gas helped strengthen the Colombian peso and Brazilian real against the dollar in the last 12 months. The peso rallied 11 percent against the U.S. currency, and the real is up 5 percent, trimming returns from dollar-denominated exports.
“The stronger peso takes a little of the shine off,” said Rupert Stebbings, head of the Medellin-based unit of Chilean brokerage Celfin Capital SA. “It’s eroding some of the gains, but this is a coffee price level they couldn’t have imagined.”
While harvests may expand, supply now is still tight, said Nestor Osorio, the outgoing executive director of the London- based International Coffee Organization. Declining inventory “makes the markets much more nervous and much more vulnerable,” he said.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. fell 35 percent this year to 2.01 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. This season’s arabica surplus will be 1.01 million bags, the smallest amount since the 2007-2008 season, according to ABN Amro and London-based VM Group.
Coffee Fungus
Problems with crops may also spill over into next season. Colombia’s harvest could decline next year after wet weather caused the worst outbreak of a plant-damaging fungus in a quarter century, Jose Sierra, who represents Antioquia, the nation’s largest coffee-growing province, said Sept. 1.
... Die Kolmbianische Ernte könnte sich aufgrund der Pilzinfektion verringern.
Speculators added 3,058 contracts to their net-long position in the week ended Sept. 7, the day before futures reached a 13-year high. Prices fell for two consecutive days after that, retreating 2.4 percent.
Prices may keep rising as supplies increase because demand will also climb, said Judith-Ganes Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York. Global demand for arabica will expand 0.4 percent to 79.32 million bags in the 2010-11 season, the highest since at least the 2000-2001 season, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
... Preise könntne weiter steigen, da Bedarf auch steigt...
Staple Foods
Unlike staple foods such as grains, coffee drinkers may not be willing to pay higher prices, said Raymond Keane, a coffee trader for Balzac Bros. & Co. in Charleston, South Carolina, which supplies the commodity to Kraft and Starbucks.
“There will be a point when consumers say: ‘This is it,’” Keane said. “Coffee is not an important ingredient of our diet. It is not wheat or rice. It’s dispensable.”
...Es wird einen Punkt geben, ab dem der Verbraucher sagt, dass Kaffee nicht zu den notwendigen Gütern gehört.....
Speculation about Colombia’s crop is probably too bearish, said Abah Ofon, a Dubai-based commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, the most accurate arabica forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the first quarter. Ofon is forecasting a 1.5 million-bag increase in the country’s harvest, for a gain of 19 percent, and fourth-quarter prices of $1.45.
... DIe Spekulationen um die (schlechte) kolumbianische Ernte ist wohl zu bearisch...
Brazilian production will rise to a bigger-than-expected 47.2 million bags this year, from 39.5 million last year, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency said Sept. 9.
...Brasilien wird mehr produzieren als die erwarteten 47,2 mio Sack
Arabica Prices
Roasters may also seek to substitute some arabica with robusta, used in instant coffee and espresso blends, said Keane of Balzac Bros. Arabica is trading at 2.6 times the price of robusta, compared with a two-year average of twice as expensive, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“We’ve seen some international companies ask for more robusta than they used to,” said Bui Hung Manh, head of the business department at Tay Nguyen Coffee Investment, Import and Export Co. in Buon Ma Thuot, Vietnam. “If arabica prices stay as high as they are now, more people will switch to robusta.”
...Firmen könnten Arabica gegen Robusta tauschen, wenn die Arabica PReise so hoch bleiben..
The company is the biggest exporter in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta. The country will produce 20 million bags of robusta next season, a gain of about 8 percent, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
Robusta traded on the NYSE Liffe exchange in London rose to a 21-month peak of $1,838 a metric ton on Aug. 23, before slumping 14 percent.
“When the price trend reaches a crescendo, there are clear signs that an imbalance has built up,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps oversee $13.3 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted the collapse in commodity prices in 2008. “Financial buyers are finally becoming wiser.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net.
...Beim Übersetzen ist mir aufgefallen, dass sich der Artikel in sich selbst widerspricht. Naja verschiedenen Meinungen halt....Das ist zum k*tz**.
..Die Rally soll enden, da es höhere Ernte geben soll. Die Funds ziehen sich zurück..
Supplies of arabica, the world’s most-grown coffee, will exceed demand by 6.67 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags in the year ending in September 2011, according to ABN Amro Bank NV and VM Group. That’s the most in nine years and more than six times this season’s expected surplus. Speculators including hedge funds cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 8.4 percent since Aug. 17, regulatory data show.
Es werden 6,67 mio 60kg Beutel am ende des Jahres 2010 in den Lagern liegen. Dies ist die höchste Menge in neun Jahren. Spekulaten reduzierten ihre Long-Positionen um 8,4% seit Aug 17.
The rise in coffee coincided with surging food prices as flooding in Canada and drought across Russia and Europe ruined crops. Wheat as much as doubled since June, contributing to riots over bread costs in Mozambique, and a United Nations price- index of 55 foods advanced to its highest since September 2008 last month. No such shortages in arabica are forecast, with ABN Amro and VM Group anticipating a 7.4 percent increase in output to almost 86 million bags, the most since at least the season ended in 2001.
..uninteressant...
“You cannot justify the spike on the upside if you look at the supply situation,” said Christoph Eibl, co-founder of Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius Group, which manages more than $2 billion in assets. “People who have been betting on coffee may lose. In the long run, fundamentals always overrule.”
Man kann den Preisanstieg nicht rechtfertigen, wenn man sich die Versorgungssituation anschaut. Wer auf Kaffee wettet, könnte verliegen. Langfristig überzeugen die funtametale Gründe.
Arabica Gains
Arabica rose as much as 50 percent since June 7 in New York trading , reaching a 13-year high of $1.9865 a pound on Sept. 8, partly on speculation that rainfall in Colombia, the second- biggest producer after Brazil, would damage crops. Colombian coffee output gained 55 percent to 615,000 bags in August, the Bogota-based National Federation of Coffee Growers said this month.
...Kolumen hat um 55% zugelegt...
Coffee will average $1.52 a pound in the fourth quarter, or 20 percent less than now, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts. Arabica for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.908 as of 6 a.m. in New York.
..Kaffe wird 1,52 USD im Q4 kosten...
Speculators accumulated a net-long position of 44,505 contracts by Aug. 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s almost three times the five-year average and equal to 1.67 billion pounds of coffee. They cut that in two of the last three weeks, to 40,757 contracts by Sept. 7.
...Spekulaten sind stark long 3x höher als der 5 Jahresdurchschnitt...
The last time prices rose this fast, in a rally ending in March 2005, arabica slumped 38 percent in the next six months. Futures traded on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange are anticipating a decline next year. Contracts from March 2011 are in backwardation, meaning that nearby contracts are trading at a premium to longer-dated ones, a sign investors may be more concerned about near-term supply.
...Schon einmal hat Kaffe nach einer Rally im März 2005 39% verloren...
Cutting Costs
Cheaper beans could help cut costs for companies including Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, which raised U.S. prices twice since May on some types of Maxwell House and Yuban coffee. Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee-shop chain, said Aug. 17 that more spending on commodities, mostly coffee, would add about 4 cents a share to expenses in the year ending in September 2011.
...uninteressant...
Smucker, based in Orrville, Ohio, said Aug. 3 that it raised prices by an average of 9 percent for most of its Folgers and Dunkin’ Donuts coffee products. In a conference call with investors on June 17, Vince Byrd, president of Smucker’s coffee business, said the rally was being driven more by funds than supply issues. Arabica had already climbed about 20 percent by then. The company declined to comment further.
Shares of Seattle-based Starbucks are 10 percent higher this year in New York trading, while Kraft gained 13 percent and Smucker dropped 0.7 percent.
Commodity Demand
Higher prices for commodities including coffee, oil and natural gas helped strengthen the Colombian peso and Brazilian real against the dollar in the last 12 months. The peso rallied 11 percent against the U.S. currency, and the real is up 5 percent, trimming returns from dollar-denominated exports.
“The stronger peso takes a little of the shine off,” said Rupert Stebbings, head of the Medellin-based unit of Chilean brokerage Celfin Capital SA. “It’s eroding some of the gains, but this is a coffee price level they couldn’t have imagined.”
While harvests may expand, supply now is still tight, said Nestor Osorio, the outgoing executive director of the London- based International Coffee Organization. Declining inventory “makes the markets much more nervous and much more vulnerable,” he said.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. fell 35 percent this year to 2.01 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. This season’s arabica surplus will be 1.01 million bags, the smallest amount since the 2007-2008 season, according to ABN Amro and London-based VM Group.
Coffee Fungus
Problems with crops may also spill over into next season. Colombia’s harvest could decline next year after wet weather caused the worst outbreak of a plant-damaging fungus in a quarter century, Jose Sierra, who represents Antioquia, the nation’s largest coffee-growing province, said Sept. 1.
... Die Kolmbianische Ernte könnte sich aufgrund der Pilzinfektion verringern.
Speculators added 3,058 contracts to their net-long position in the week ended Sept. 7, the day before futures reached a 13-year high. Prices fell for two consecutive days after that, retreating 2.4 percent.
Prices may keep rising as supplies increase because demand will also climb, said Judith-Ganes Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York. Global demand for arabica will expand 0.4 percent to 79.32 million bags in the 2010-11 season, the highest since at least the 2000-2001 season, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
... Preise könntne weiter steigen, da Bedarf auch steigt...
Staple Foods
Unlike staple foods such as grains, coffee drinkers may not be willing to pay higher prices, said Raymond Keane, a coffee trader for Balzac Bros. & Co. in Charleston, South Carolina, which supplies the commodity to Kraft and Starbucks.
“There will be a point when consumers say: ‘This is it,’” Keane said. “Coffee is not an important ingredient of our diet. It is not wheat or rice. It’s dispensable.”
...Es wird einen Punkt geben, ab dem der Verbraucher sagt, dass Kaffee nicht zu den notwendigen Gütern gehört.....
Speculation about Colombia’s crop is probably too bearish, said Abah Ofon, a Dubai-based commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, the most accurate arabica forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the first quarter. Ofon is forecasting a 1.5 million-bag increase in the country’s harvest, for a gain of 19 percent, and fourth-quarter prices of $1.45.
... DIe Spekulationen um die (schlechte) kolumbianische Ernte ist wohl zu bearisch...
Brazilian production will rise to a bigger-than-expected 47.2 million bags this year, from 39.5 million last year, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency said Sept. 9.
...Brasilien wird mehr produzieren als die erwarteten 47,2 mio Sack
Arabica Prices
Roasters may also seek to substitute some arabica with robusta, used in instant coffee and espresso blends, said Keane of Balzac Bros. Arabica is trading at 2.6 times the price of robusta, compared with a two-year average of twice as expensive, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“We’ve seen some international companies ask for more robusta than they used to,” said Bui Hung Manh, head of the business department at Tay Nguyen Coffee Investment, Import and Export Co. in Buon Ma Thuot, Vietnam. “If arabica prices stay as high as they are now, more people will switch to robusta.”
...Firmen könnten Arabica gegen Robusta tauschen, wenn die Arabica PReise so hoch bleiben..
The company is the biggest exporter in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta. The country will produce 20 million bags of robusta next season, a gain of about 8 percent, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
Robusta traded on the NYSE Liffe exchange in London rose to a 21-month peak of $1,838 a metric ton on Aug. 23, before slumping 14 percent.
“When the price trend reaches a crescendo, there are clear signs that an imbalance has built up,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps oversee $13.3 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted the collapse in commodity prices in 2008. “Financial buyers are finally becoming wiser.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net.
...Beim Übersetzen ist mir aufgefallen, dass sich der Artikel in sich selbst widerspricht. Naja verschiedenen Meinungen halt....Das ist zum k*tz**.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.149.020 von finnlittle am 14.09.10 16:52:50Nun ist es soweit...bei meinem Put ist SL gerissen...steh nun wieder an der Seitenlinie.
Wie gehts weiter mit dem Kaffee?
Mein Englisch ist nicht so gut ... wer kann denn die
Grundaussagen des Postings von YaCop mal reinstellen?
Vielen Dank!
Wie gehts weiter mit dem Kaffee?
Mein Englisch ist nicht so gut ... wer kann denn die
Grundaussagen des Postings von YaCop mal reinstellen?
Vielen Dank!
.. anschnallen, es geht weiter ... die 200 kommt
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-12/coffee-peaking-with…
The biggest rally in coffee in five years may be ending as the prospect of larger harvests spurs hedge funds to pare bets on higher prices, potentially cutting costs for J.M. Smucker Co., Kraft Foods Inc. and Starbucks Corp.
Supplies of arabica, the world’s most-grown coffee, will exceed demand by 6.67 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags in the year ending in September 2011, according to ABN Amro Bank NV and VM Group. That’s the most in nine years and more than six times this season’s expected surplus. Speculators including hedge funds cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 8.4 percent since Aug. 17, regulatory data show.
The rise in coffee coincided with surging food prices as flooding in Canada and drought across Russia and Europe ruined crops. Wheat as much as doubled since June, contributing to riots over bread costs in Mozambique, and a United Nations price-index of 55 foods advanced to its highest since September 2008 last month. No such shortages in arabica are forecast, with ABN Amro and VM Group anticipating a 7.4 percent increase in output to almost 86 million bags, the most since at least the season ended in 2001.
“You cannot justify the spike on the upside if you look at the supply situation,” said Christoph Eibl, co-founder of Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius Group, which manages more than $2 billion in assets. “People who have been betting on coffee may lose. In the long run, fundamentals always overrule.”
Arabica Gains
Arabica rose as much as 50 percent since June 7 in New York trading, reaching a 13-year high of $1.9865 a pound on Sept. 8, partly on speculation that rainfall in Colombia, the second- biggest producer after Brazil, would damage crops. Colombian coffee output gained 55 percent to 615,000 bags in August, the Bogota-based National Federation of Coffee Growers said this month.
Coffee will average $1.52 a pound in the fourth quarter, or 20 percent less than now, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts. Arabica for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.908 as of 6 a.m. in New York.
Speculators accumulated a net-long position of 44,505 contracts by Aug. 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s almost three times the five-year average and equal to 1.67 billion pounds of coffee. They cut that in two of the last three weeks, to 40,757 contracts by Sept. 7.
The last time prices rose this fast, in a rally ending in March 2005, arabica slumped 38 percent in the next six months. Futures traded on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange are anticipating a decline next year. Contracts from March 2011 are in backwardation, meaning that nearby contracts are trading at a premium to longer-dated ones, a sign investors may be more concerned about near-term supply.
Cutting Costs
Cheaper beans could help cut costs for companies including Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, which raised U.S. prices twice since May on some types of Maxwell House and Yuban coffee. Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee-shop chain, said Aug. 17 that more spending on commodities, mostly coffee, would add about 4 cents a share to expenses in the year ending in September 2011.
Smucker, based in Orrville, Ohio, said Aug. 3 that it raised prices by an average of 9 percent for most of its Folgers and Dunkin’ Donuts coffee products. In a conference call with investors on June 17, Vince Byrd, president of Smucker’s coffee business, said the rally was being driven more by funds than supply issues. Arabica had already climbed about 20 percent by then. The company declined to comment further.
Shares of Seattle-based Starbucks are 10 percent higher this year in New York trading, while Kraft gained 13 percent and Smucker dropped 0.7 percent.
Commodity Demand
Higher prices for commodities including coffee, oil and natural gas helped strengthen the Colombian peso and Brazilian real against the dollar in the last 12 months. The peso rallied 11 percent against the U.S. currency, and the real is up 5 percent, trimming returns from dollar-denominated exports.
“The stronger peso takes a little of the shine off,” said Rupert Stebbings, head of the Medellin-based unit of Chilean brokerage Celfin Capital SA. “It’s eroding some of the gains, but this is a coffee price level they couldn’t have imagined.”
While harvests may expand, supply now is still tight, said Nestor Osorio, the outgoing executive director of the London- based International Coffee Organization. Declining inventory “makes the markets much more nervous and much more vulnerable,” he said.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. fell 35 percent this year to 2.01 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. This season’s arabica surplus will be 1.01 million bags, the smallest amount since the 2007-2008 season, according to ABN Amro and London-based VM Group.
Coffee Fungus
Problems with crops may also spill over into next season. Colombia’s harvest could decline next year after wet weather caused the worst outbreak of a plant-damaging fungus in a quarter century, Jose Sierra, who represents Antioquia, the nation’s largest coffee-growing province, said Sept. 1.
Speculators added 3,058 contracts to their net-long position in the week ended Sept. 7, the day before futures reached a 13-year high. Prices fell for two consecutive days after that, retreating 2.4 percent.
Prices may keep rising as supplies increase because demand will also climb, said Judith-Ganes Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York. Global demand for arabica will expand 0.4 percent to 79.32 million bags in the 2010-11 season, the highest since at least the 2000-2001 season, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
Staple Foods
Unlike staple foods such as grains, coffee drinkers may not be willing to pay higher prices, said Raymond Keane, a coffee trader for Balzac Bros. & Co. in Charleston, South Carolina, which supplies the commodity to Kraft and Starbucks.
“There will be a point when consumers say: ‘This is it,’” Keane said. “Coffee is not an important ingredient of our diet. It is not wheat or rice. It’s dispensable.”
Speculation about Colombia’s crop is probably too bearish, said Abah Ofon, a Dubai-based commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, the most accurate arabica forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the first quarter. Ofon is forecasting a 1.5 million-bag increase in the country’s harvest, for a gain of 19 percent, and fourth-quarter prices of $1.45.
Brazilian production will rise to a bigger-than-expected 47.2 million bags this year, from 39.5 million last year, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency said Sept. 9.
Arabica Prices
Roasters may also seek to substitute some arabica with robusta, used in instant coffee and espresso blends, said Keane of Balzac Bros. Arabica is trading at 2.6 times the price of robusta, compared with a two-year average of twice as expensive, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“We’ve seen some international companies ask for more robusta than they used to,” said Bui Hung Manh, head of the business department at Tay Nguyen Coffee Investment, Import and Export Co. in Buon Ma Thuot, Vietnam. “If arabica prices stay as high as they are now, more people will switch to robusta.”
The company is the biggest exporter in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta. The country will produce 20 million bags of robusta next season, a gain of about 8 percent, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
Robusta traded on the NYSE Liffe exchange in London rose to a 21-month peak of $1,838 a metric ton on Aug. 23, before slumping 14 percent.
“When the price trend reaches a crescendo, there are clear signs that an imbalance has built up,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps oversee $13.3 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted the collapse in commodity prices in 2008. “Financial buyers are finally becoming wiser.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net.
The biggest rally in coffee in five years may be ending as the prospect of larger harvests spurs hedge funds to pare bets on higher prices, potentially cutting costs for J.M. Smucker Co., Kraft Foods Inc. and Starbucks Corp.
Supplies of arabica, the world’s most-grown coffee, will exceed demand by 6.67 million 60-kilogram (132-pound) bags in the year ending in September 2011, according to ABN Amro Bank NV and VM Group. That’s the most in nine years and more than six times this season’s expected surplus. Speculators including hedge funds cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 8.4 percent since Aug. 17, regulatory data show.
The rise in coffee coincided with surging food prices as flooding in Canada and drought across Russia and Europe ruined crops. Wheat as much as doubled since June, contributing to riots over bread costs in Mozambique, and a United Nations price-index of 55 foods advanced to its highest since September 2008 last month. No such shortages in arabica are forecast, with ABN Amro and VM Group anticipating a 7.4 percent increase in output to almost 86 million bags, the most since at least the season ended in 2001.
“You cannot justify the spike on the upside if you look at the supply situation,” said Christoph Eibl, co-founder of Zug, Switzerland-based Tiberius Group, which manages more than $2 billion in assets. “People who have been betting on coffee may lose. In the long run, fundamentals always overrule.”
Arabica Gains
Arabica rose as much as 50 percent since June 7 in New York trading, reaching a 13-year high of $1.9865 a pound on Sept. 8, partly on speculation that rainfall in Colombia, the second- biggest producer after Brazil, would damage crops. Colombian coffee output gained 55 percent to 615,000 bags in August, the Bogota-based National Federation of Coffee Growers said this month.
Coffee will average $1.52 a pound in the fourth quarter, or 20 percent less than now, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts. Arabica for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.908 as of 6 a.m. in New York.
Speculators accumulated a net-long position of 44,505 contracts by Aug. 17, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s almost three times the five-year average and equal to 1.67 billion pounds of coffee. They cut that in two of the last three weeks, to 40,757 contracts by Sept. 7.
The last time prices rose this fast, in a rally ending in March 2005, arabica slumped 38 percent in the next six months. Futures traded on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange are anticipating a decline next year. Contracts from March 2011 are in backwardation, meaning that nearby contracts are trading at a premium to longer-dated ones, a sign investors may be more concerned about near-term supply.
Cutting Costs
Cheaper beans could help cut costs for companies including Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, which raised U.S. prices twice since May on some types of Maxwell House and Yuban coffee. Starbucks, the world’s largest coffee-shop chain, said Aug. 17 that more spending on commodities, mostly coffee, would add about 4 cents a share to expenses in the year ending in September 2011.
Smucker, based in Orrville, Ohio, said Aug. 3 that it raised prices by an average of 9 percent for most of its Folgers and Dunkin’ Donuts coffee products. In a conference call with investors on June 17, Vince Byrd, president of Smucker’s coffee business, said the rally was being driven more by funds than supply issues. Arabica had already climbed about 20 percent by then. The company declined to comment further.
Shares of Seattle-based Starbucks are 10 percent higher this year in New York trading, while Kraft gained 13 percent and Smucker dropped 0.7 percent.
Commodity Demand
Higher prices for commodities including coffee, oil and natural gas helped strengthen the Colombian peso and Brazilian real against the dollar in the last 12 months. The peso rallied 11 percent against the U.S. currency, and the real is up 5 percent, trimming returns from dollar-denominated exports.
“The stronger peso takes a little of the shine off,” said Rupert Stebbings, head of the Medellin-based unit of Chilean brokerage Celfin Capital SA. “It’s eroding some of the gains, but this is a coffee price level they couldn’t have imagined.”
While harvests may expand, supply now is still tight, said Nestor Osorio, the outgoing executive director of the London- based International Coffee Organization. Declining inventory “makes the markets much more nervous and much more vulnerable,” he said.
Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by ICE Futures U.S. fell 35 percent this year to 2.01 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. This season’s arabica surplus will be 1.01 million bags, the smallest amount since the 2007-2008 season, according to ABN Amro and London-based VM Group.
Coffee Fungus
Problems with crops may also spill over into next season. Colombia’s harvest could decline next year after wet weather caused the worst outbreak of a plant-damaging fungus in a quarter century, Jose Sierra, who represents Antioquia, the nation’s largest coffee-growing province, said Sept. 1.
Speculators added 3,058 contracts to their net-long position in the week ended Sept. 7, the day before futures reached a 13-year high. Prices fell for two consecutive days after that, retreating 2.4 percent.
Prices may keep rising as supplies increase because demand will also climb, said Judith-Ganes Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York. Global demand for arabica will expand 0.4 percent to 79.32 million bags in the 2010-11 season, the highest since at least the 2000-2001 season, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
Staple Foods
Unlike staple foods such as grains, coffee drinkers may not be willing to pay higher prices, said Raymond Keane, a coffee trader for Balzac Bros. & Co. in Charleston, South Carolina, which supplies the commodity to Kraft and Starbucks.
“There will be a point when consumers say: ‘This is it,’” Keane said. “Coffee is not an important ingredient of our diet. It is not wheat or rice. It’s dispensable.”
Speculation about Colombia’s crop is probably too bearish, said Abah Ofon, a Dubai-based commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, the most accurate arabica forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the first quarter. Ofon is forecasting a 1.5 million-bag increase in the country’s harvest, for a gain of 19 percent, and fourth-quarter prices of $1.45.
Brazilian production will rise to a bigger-than-expected 47.2 million bags this year, from 39.5 million last year, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency said Sept. 9.
Arabica Prices
Roasters may also seek to substitute some arabica with robusta, used in instant coffee and espresso blends, said Keane of Balzac Bros. Arabica is trading at 2.6 times the price of robusta, compared with a two-year average of twice as expensive, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“We’ve seen some international companies ask for more robusta than they used to,” said Bui Hung Manh, head of the business department at Tay Nguyen Coffee Investment, Import and Export Co. in Buon Ma Thuot, Vietnam. “If arabica prices stay as high as they are now, more people will switch to robusta.”
The company is the biggest exporter in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta. The country will produce 20 million bags of robusta next season, a gain of about 8 percent, ABN Amro and VM Group estimate.
Robusta traded on the NYSE Liffe exchange in London rose to a 21-month peak of $1,838 a metric ton on Aug. 23, before slumping 14 percent.
“When the price trend reaches a crescendo, there are clear signs that an imbalance has built up,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps oversee $13.3 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati and correctly predicted the collapse in commodity prices in 2008. “Financial buyers are finally becoming wiser.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.135.113 von viostep am 10.09.10 21:42:10Das ist schon richtig, ist mir aber etwas zu einfach, davon auszugehen, daß der Preis weiter steigen wird wegen Spakulanten. Man könnte sich entsprechend positionieren und Gewinne laufen lassen. Wir sind aber inzwischen auf einem sehr hohen Niveau, so daß viel Raum nach oben nicht mehr bleibt, es sei denn es passiert was krassen wie der von Ihnen beschriebene Bauernaufstand vor einigen Jahren.
Dazu darf man auch nicht vergessen, daß die Kaffeeproduktion zur Zeit so hoch ist wie noch nie zuvor der Preis aber sehr hoch. Es gab bißchen Ängste wegen schlechterer Ernte in Kolumbien, sobald das verflogen ist wird der Preis wieder fallen. Im Juni standen wird noch bei 130 $, jetzt bei 190 $, aus meiner Sicht viel zu viel, deswegen rechne ich damit, daß wir kommende Woche tiefere Preise sehen werden.
Mein Short läuft noch, Stopp ist gesetzt, bin schon gespannt auf die nächste Woche. Will bei ca. 160 $ rausgehen, denke nicht, daß es schnell wieder auf 130 $ fällt.
Dazu darf man auch nicht vergessen, daß die Kaffeeproduktion zur Zeit so hoch ist wie noch nie zuvor der Preis aber sehr hoch. Es gab bißchen Ängste wegen schlechterer Ernte in Kolumbien, sobald das verflogen ist wird der Preis wieder fallen. Im Juni standen wird noch bei 130 $, jetzt bei 190 $, aus meiner Sicht viel zu viel, deswegen rechne ich damit, daß wir kommende Woche tiefere Preise sehen werden.
Mein Short läuft noch, Stopp ist gesetzt, bin schon gespannt auf die nächste Woche. Will bei ca. 160 $ rausgehen, denke nicht, daß es schnell wieder auf 130 $ fällt.
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.135.113 von viostep am 10.09.10 21:42:10PS: tausche e gegen i
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.129.525 von Fuenfvorzwoelf am 09.09.10 22:35:10Hallo und guten Abend ...
also ich persönlich geh noch nicht über die Brücke, das der Kaffeepreis schnell fällt
bin zwar short - wie schon geschrieben, will ja den Absturz nicht verpassen ...aber mit sehr engem SL.
Beim Öl vor Jahren wollte ich auch short gehen...hatte mich aber nicht getraut und viele
Euro verschenkt...
Ich denke Rohstoffe sind zur Zeit der Speilplatz einiger Spekulanten ...und solange die wollen das der Preis steigt ...finden die a - Gründe und b - viel billiges Geld, was investiert werden kann. Bitte sichert eure Investments ab...wenn ihr auch shortet ...
evtl. steigt der Preis bis auf 2- 2,15...2,20 ???
Ansonsten 1997 der starke Preisanstieg hing wohl mit Vietnam und den Bauernaufstand zusammen...ich denke man hatte vor Lieferengpässen Angst... und das hat den Preis getrieben...es ist wohl so, das ca. 80 % der Kaffeeanbaugebiete in Vietn. den
Kaffeebauern gehört. wie schon geschrieben einfach mal selber googeln.
Viel Glück und auf einen fallenden Preis ...darauf ein Käffchen. Prost !!!
also ich persönlich geh noch nicht über die Brücke, das der Kaffeepreis schnell fällt
bin zwar short - wie schon geschrieben, will ja den Absturz nicht verpassen ...aber mit sehr engem SL.
Beim Öl vor Jahren wollte ich auch short gehen...hatte mich aber nicht getraut und viele
Euro verschenkt...
Ich denke Rohstoffe sind zur Zeit der Speilplatz einiger Spekulanten ...und solange die wollen das der Preis steigt ...finden die a - Gründe und b - viel billiges Geld, was investiert werden kann. Bitte sichert eure Investments ab...wenn ihr auch shortet ...
evtl. steigt der Preis bis auf 2- 2,15...2,20 ???
Ansonsten 1997 der starke Preisanstieg hing wohl mit Vietnam und den Bauernaufstand zusammen...ich denke man hatte vor Lieferengpässen Angst... und das hat den Preis getrieben...es ist wohl so, das ca. 80 % der Kaffeeanbaugebiete in Vietn. den
Kaffeebauern gehört. wie schon geschrieben einfach mal selber googeln.
Viel Glück und auf einen fallenden Preis ...darauf ein Käffchen. Prost !!!
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.134.411 von goldlemming am 10.09.10 19:10:01Es wäre natürlich toll, wenn er heute unter 187 $ schließen könnte, damit wäre der Weg nach unten so gut wie sicher. Mal sehen, vielleicht packt er das noch.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.134.394 von YaCop am 10.09.10 19:06:43Sieht so aus, bin drin, nach anfängliche Verlußten heute, jetzt im plus. Ist aber abgeprallt bei 187 $. Trotzdem ich denke nicht, daß er noch Kraft hat um weiter zu neuen Hochs zu laufen, deswegen halte ich den Short und erwarte kommende Woche einen richtigen Rutsch nach unten um ca. 20-30$. Wie immer gilt: Wir werden sehen!
Es wird doch wohl nicht schon abwärts gehen?
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