Wann und wie kommt der nächste Crash? (Seite 113)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.123.396 von faultcode am 17.03.19 14:41:21
Als Hypothese.
Some thoughts on Silicon Valley's endgame. We have long said the biggest risk to the bull market is an Uber IPO. That is now upon us.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1106888860259233792.html
--> lesenswert und schlüssig
die "Einhorn-IPO's" müssen erst durch.. (1)
..dann kann es (in den USA) crashen.Als Hypothese.
Some thoughts on Silicon Valley's endgame. We have long said the biggest risk to the bull market is an Uber IPO. That is now upon us.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1106888860259233792.html
--> lesenswert und schlüssig
US-Notenbank: Bilanz vs. Bruttosozialprodukt
QT:
Balance sheet vs. GDP:
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.102.295 von faultcode am 14.03.19 17:54:11Hier mal so ein paar Schlagzeilen nach 10 Jahre steigenden Märkten wäre es mal wieder Zeit für einen Crash an den Märkten
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/boerse/sorge-vor-neuer-…
https://boerse.ard.de/anlagestrategie/droht-die-finanzkrise-…
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/finanzmarkt/nach-der-fi…
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/boerse/sorge-vor-neuer-…
https://boerse.ard.de/anlagestrategie/droht-die-finanzkrise-…
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/finanzen/finanzmarkt/nach-der-fi…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.052.649 von faultcode am 08.03.19 14:59:02
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?count…
=> macht auf mich keinen sehr gesunden Eindruck
Inversion
die Delle bei den US-Zinsen kommt mir (heute) irgendwie noch stärker vor als zuletzt:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd01y?count…
=> macht auf mich keinen sehr gesunden Eindruck
U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months
8.3.https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-adds-meager-20000-jobs-…
=>
Trading Spotlight
China: die Kreditblase
27.2.A Chinese government-owned company just defaulted on its debt. It's a worrying sign for the country's economy.
https://www.businessinsider.de/china-economy-qinghai-first-s…
=>
-- Qinghai Provincial Investment Group failed to pay an $11 million interest payment on an offshore $300 million bond on Friday, the first time a state-owned Chinese company has failed to make a payment on its debt burden in 20 years.
-- It's another sign of the increasing strain on debt-loaded provincial governments in China.
-- Despite attempts to loosen lending conditions in recent months, China's slowing economy is negatively affecting default rates — now worryingly extending to state-owned companies.
U.S. home price index: Ausblicke
trübe oder trüber?!? 
aus: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-current-bubble-could-t…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.956.129 von faultcode am 25.02.19 13:41:27
Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows
"own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows"
aus dem GMO White Paper, Jan 2019:Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.955.214 von faultcode am 25.02.19 11:58:01Correlation of U.S. asset prices to central bank balance sheets is 0.94 since 2009... Everything else is noise
aus: https://twitter.com/WidesKevin/status/1098952107099598849
aus: https://twitter.com/WidesKevin/status/1098952107099598849
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