Wohin geht der EUR? ( Seite 1613)

hab nachgeshortet zu 1,31925 und 1,32031

ursprünglich wollte ich nur zu 1,3203 shorten
habs mal wieder nich abwarten können

die kerze hat heute den 1yeardownkanal oben berührt

jetz darf er eigentlich nur nochn paar tage seitwärts max

ansonsten
würde ausbruch nach oben zu befürchten sein
und ich
bekäme dabei wieder voll auf die fresse

ich mein
wozu ham wer denn die scheiss €-krise
wenn der € dabei nich fett abjackt

Lebhaftes Interesse an 2-jährigen US-Notes

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vor 2 Min (19:11) - Marktbericht
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 43.082.368 von zenman am 24.04.12 19:12:54das ist die frage

Nachstehend ein interessanter Artikel - demnach sollte man langfristig ( 3- 4 Monate) short gehen. Die extremste Prognose steht bei 1,20 im September.


Tue, Apr 24 2012, 17:21 GMT | IFR Markets
It's amazing, some days you search for the thread of a story and some just drop in your lap ... today was the latter. A collection of comments from analysts/ strategists thoughts and readers comments ...

Black box trader - "I think you'll see EUR/USD (1.3195) drop pretty steadily from here - back down, in fact, to the previous low of 1.2630 area"
Large (NY) money centre bank analysis ... Between April 1981 and April 1998 (Exactly 17 years) the Drachma lost ground against Germany (The Deutsche Mark) from 24.40 to 175.1 (A factor of 7.18 times) ... From April 1998 to date as the Drachma prepared to enter and subsequently did enter the EURO the price essentially flat lined at 174.20 where it sits today,exactly 14 years later... If it had continued to depreciate at the same pace seen pre the movement to the Euro it would today stand at around 1,034 ...
Large (NY) money centre bank conclusion (Greece outcome) ... Can anybody honestly believe looking at those dynamics that Greece can now “compete” and “grow” going forward with ... Abnormally high interest rates ... An economy in recession/depression ... Youth employment above 50% ... A primary deficit ... Huge fiscal austerity program……AND ... A DEMGDR exchange rate of 174.20
Vincent Cignarella WSJ FX ... The EUR/USD is said to be so heavily optioned, locking the pair in a 1.3000-1.3500 range that it would take "the end of the world" to break to the downside. By the time you caught up with that it would be 500 points lower, making shorting the euro at 1.2500 useless, one trader moaned.
Zero Hedge (sent by reader) "Two weeks ago we were the first to explain that the mysterious Euro levitation observed, as news flow out of Europe had just turned very ugly, was due solely to another iteration of a very disturbing phenomenon: EUR repatriation, as domestic banks were forced to shore up capital ahead of what they perceived as major liquidity needs such as bond auctions, and the other usual fare - insolvent banks, deposit outflow replacement, etc.
Another reader ... "My question is when does this repatriation distortion end - and how and how badly? "
Cycle gurus last Wednesday "Our cycles call for an intermediate low today and 1.3050 should hold. All should be calm until May Day or a couple of days longer, but our maximum target is only 1.3450. Even if the 1.3250 level is seen it is a good place to sell for the next leg of the downtrend. We expect an initial low in late May and it should fall to the 1.2500 area. Following a recovery for a few weeks the euro will turn lower to August or September. Our objective ... the 1.2000 area."
Standard Bank Ltd. Steven Barrow on French elections "it is the politics between countries that could be important as it is here that policies could change. For example, if Socialist candidate Hollande wins the second round of the French Presidential vote on May 6th there is little doubt that relations with Germany will change. This is important because the Franco/German axis is clearly crucial to the longevity of EMU in its current form. The change in this relationship could develop in a positive way, as well as a negative way, although the latter seems more likely." ... All we would suggest is to plan for greater political sensitivity of the euro—and a fall in euro/dollar to 1.20 later this year.
UBS FX forecast EUR/USD "The renewed intensification of the Eurozone crisis is very much driven by concerns about Spain. The more the market speculates about external assistance, the higher the likelihood of a vicious circle ultimately forcing Spain into a troika programme. Debt sustainability in Italy remains a longer-term issue as well. While the euro has looked remarkably immune to the recent deterioration, the crisis still poses a serious threat. We remain comfortable with our end-2012 EUR/USD forecast of 1.15.

The problem that is apparent is that the central banks (sovereign buyers) have hamstrung the market; professionals have pulled back from trading and are waiting for the eventual follow through in EUR/USD; As the cycle gurus said, look for rallies to fade; put on a core strategic position that allows you to stay in the trade without getting stopped out; Range trade from a short position (in case it's the day the dam breaks") using overbought technicals as a guide. Look for low cost option structures (possibly zero cost collars) that benefit for a downside break but don't break the bank to put on.

wenn ich etwas gelernt habe dieses Jahr, dann ist es dieses:

"es gibt keinen Free Lunch!"

Mario Draghi hat gesprochen. Mal schauen wie es weiter geht…

GBP ist eingebrochen