Dividenden Strategie (Seite 31)

[cimar]

CEO Steve Ballmer wird in den nächsten 12 Monaten zurücktreten. Microsoft +7%
http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2013-08-23/microsoft-ceo-…

[cimar]

Name TotalReturn % Jan-Juli TotalReturn  % - Juli

Portfolio Gesamt	10,73	1,97

EUR Aggressive Allocation - Global	5,77	2,62

Daten Per 31.7.2013

[cimar]

Name	TotalReturn% - seitJahresanfang (Jan-Juli) TotalReturn% - Juli

Portfolio Gesamt	10,73	1,97

EUR Aggressive Allocation - Global	5,77	2,62

		

		

DAX TR	8,72	3,98

MSCI World NR USD	13,32	3,05

Barclays Global Aggregate TR USD	-4,32	-0,88

EUR Flexible Allocation - Global	2,03	1,69

EUR Moderate Allocation - Global	3,06	1,76

EUR Cautious Allocation - Global	1,11	0,98

Barclays Global Aggregate TR Hdg EUR	-0,92	0,38

	Aktie	Port Anteil	Div Rendite

1	Nestle	6,88%	3,18%

2	BASF	5,95%	3,82%

4	Deutsche Post	5,51%	3,27%

3	Philip Morris	4,97%	3,81%

5	Freenet	4,48%	7,40%

7	Johnson & Johnson	3,78%	2,76%

8	Dt. Telekom	3,57%	5,43%

6	McDonalds	3,46%	3,12%

9	Royal Dutch Shell	3,37%	5,63%

10	Seadrill	3,28%	7,99%

11	Allianz	3,09%	3,75%

12	GlaxoSmithKline	2,89%	4,23%

13	Aareal Tier1 7,25% Perpetual	2,88%	7,23%

16	General Electric	2,73%	3,11%

14	Intel	2,59%	3,91%

17	MünchnerRück	2,56%	4,62%

15	Microsoft	2,41%	2,90%

18	Dt. Euroshop	2,39%	3,48%

19	DB Tier1 Flexibel 4,38% FLT Perpetual	1,86%	5,50%

21	Freenet 7,125% 2016	1,58%	6,37%

20	Roche	1,54%	3,23%

22	Canadian Oil Sands	1,42%	6,89%

29	RWE VZ	1,35%	8,97%

24	France Telecom	1,32%	10,77%

23	Imperial Tobacco	1,24%	4,97%

33	Potash Corp	1,13%	2,90%

26	BHP Billiton	1,12%	3,96%

25	iShares DJ EM Div	1,03%	5,38%

27	Exelon	0,89%	4,07%

28	Philip Morris CR	0,84%	8,32%

30	Ishares MSCI Frontiers	0,83%	0,00%

31	DB Tier1 9,5% Perpetual	0,76%	8,81%

32	IsarFunding Tier1 10% Perpetual	0,60%	9,46%

	Divi-Portf.	84,30%	

			

	Aktie	Port Anteil	Wert ZK

33	DB DAXx6Long	0,50%	104,50

34	Nokiarx3Long	0,14%	2.915,00

35	Earth Exploration Fund	0,18%	77,00

36	HeidelDruckx3Long	0,81%	61,60

37	HeidelbergerDruck	0,43%	1.819,40

	Takt. Portf.	2,06%	

	Liquidität	13,64%	

	Gesamt Portfolio	100,00%	

Dividenden	DivRendite

Portfolio Gesamt	4,08%

Aktien 	4,34%

Bonds	6,96%

Aktien+Bonds	4,72%

Div/Zins Wertpapiere	4,95%

Aktien Anleihen	Liquidität ZyklischeAktien BlendAktien DefensiveAktien

78,70%(84,13%Expo.)	7,68%	13,62%	29,67%	23,99%	31,44%

[cimar]

CEO on RDShell's disappointing Earnings

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100928278?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_…

[cimar]

Zitat von cimar:

Zitat von cimar: Potash mit knapp 20% im Minus heute.

Uralkali Breaks Potash Cartel to Grab Market Share
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-30/uralkali-sees-potas…

Werde die Position vorerst nicht verkaufen.

POT Smoked

Following OAO Uralkali's decision to break up a 'marketing venture' that controlled around 43% of global potash exports, the world's largest producer is breaking the cartel that many US fertilizer companies have enjoyed. This move signals prices will weaken as the Russian company tries to grab market share shifting sales to its own unit. As Goldman notes, such behavior by Belaruskali in a structurally oversupplied potash industry should push for stricter competition for end customers and result in a significant swift decline in pricing to a level of marginal cost production. This slashing of margins has crushed the fertilizer stocks with POT, MOS, and AGU all down significantly in the pre-market."Uralkali’s announcement completely turns the global potash market upside down," noted one analyst. "If previously global potash producers were acting like an oligopoly, working with the rule that benefited higher potash prices over shipped volumes, now the market will be fully competitive." Shock, horror!



POT -23% pre-market

Via Goldman Sachs,

Following the July 29 meeting of the Board of Directors, Uralkali has decided to stop its export sales through Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) and direct all export volumes through Uralkali Trading owing to breach of discipline by Belaruskali, which has made a number of deliveries outside BPC. Uralkali is moving from a ‘price over volumes’ strategy to a ‘volumes over price strategy’ and targets 10.5MMT in 2013 and 13MMT in 2014.

Industry implications.

Such behavior by Belaruskali in a structurally oversupplied potash industry should push for stricter competition for end customers and result in a significant swift decline in pricing to a level of marginal cost production, which according to our ECS team stands at $300/t (vs. our GS ECS team’s price forecasts $445/$486/$520 for 2H13/2013/2014).

Note that URKA is the lowest cost producer globally (cash cost of $171/ton on a delivered basis vs. its nearest peer at US$205/t and industry average cash cost of c.US$240/t). We note however that potentially lower prices might induce higher demand. GS ECS currently estimates 2013/14 potash demand at 53.4/55.1mn tons and a price decline could potentially lead to c.10% uplift in volumes. For the global potash industry, weakening pricing signifies intensifying competition, consolidation and M&A activity.

URKA-specific implications. We believe URKA’s free cash flow will be pressured as our sensitivity analysis (Exhibit 1) shows downside risks to EBITDA with mostly stable capex ($500-600 mn). We further note that the company has accumulated debt and in an increasingly competitive market environment, it may require restructuring. Current covenant levels are 3x ND/EBITDA and short-term debt amounts to $1.8 bn.

Implications

Our URKA estimates are under review. This news also has negative read across for Israel Chemicals.

Following today’s announcement that Uralkali has decided to stop its export sales through BPC, Belarusian Potash Company and direct all export volumes through Uralkali Trading owing to a breach of discipline by Belaruskali, we are putting our estimates, price targets, and ratings for Potash Corp. (POT), Mosaic (MOS), Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Agrium (AGU) under review.
Average:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-30/pot-smoked

[cimar]

Zitat von cimar: Potash mit knapp 20% im Minus heute.

Uralkali Breaks Potash Cartel to Grab Market Share
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-30/uralkali-sees-potas…

Werde die Position vorerst nicht verkaufen.

[cimar]

Zitat von cimar: Potash mit knapp 20% im Minus heute.

Uralkali Breaks Potash Cartel to Grab Market Share
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-30/uralkali-sees-potas…

We are placing our fair value estimates for the potash producers under review on news that Uralkali is leaving the cartel-like Belarus Potash Company. We are likely to reduce our long-term potash price assumption and our fair value estimates for the producers. Our coverage includes PotashCorp POT, Mosaic MOS, Agrium AGU, Intrepid Potash IPI, K+S, SQM SQM, and Compass Minerals CMP. We will also reconsider our wide economic moat ratings for PotashCorp and Compass Minerals and our narrow moat ratings for SQM and Intrepid Potash, as this announcement tests our confidence in the firms' ability to generate economic profits decades into the future.

Our current long-term potash price assumption is $375 per metric ton at the typical plant gate in Saskatchewan. The power of the two potash cartels is part of the basis for our price assumption resting above marginal cost of production. The top six potash producers control more than 80% of global production capacity. The top four producers belong to one of two large marketing organizations that negotiate contracts and pricing for their members, further consolidating the industry and decision-making within it. Canpotex, the Canadian potash marketing arm, includes PotashCorp, Mosaic, and Agrium, while Belarus Potash Company is home to major European producers Belaruskali and Uralkali (which acquired Silvinit in 2010). The oligopolistic nature of the industry has led to more rational pricing and production decisions. However, it now looks as if rivalry within the industry will increase.

We estimate that marginal costs of production are roughly $250 per metric ton. However, we may not lower our long-term price assumption all the way to $250. For one, potash has utility for farmers at prices well above $250. Further, Uralkali's announcement should scare producers contemplating both greenfield and brownfield capacity expansions. Uralkali's move may result in potash supply being more constrained long term than what would have otherwise been the case. While it's mere speculation on our part, perhaps Uralkali's announcement is intended to do just that. One way to prevent unwanted guests at the party of monopolylike pricing power is to shout, "Party's over!"

[cimar]

Potash mit knapp 20% im Minus heute.

Uralkali Breaks Potash Cartel to Grab Market Share
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-30/uralkali-sees-potas…

[dukati01]

bin gerne ein Mitleser ... Lesezeichen!

[cimar]

Zitat von cimar:

Zitat von sdaktien: Dann reicht es aber vielleicht auch erst dann einzusteigen, wenn sich im Bereich Stahl eine Trendwende abzeichnet.
Wenn das noch dauert hast du vielleicht recht, dann ist nur noch einer übrig. Momentan sind aber noch alle 3 da.

Stahl ist aber auch ein "heißes Eisen". Daher frage ich mich, ob es sich ein Land (seine Regierung) leisten kann, einen Stahlwert verschwinden zu lassen. Was denkst du, was an der Ruhr los ist, wenn Thyssen alles dicht macht (machen muss).

Ausserdem muss man ja nicht in Stahl investieren. Es gibt auch noch andere schöne Aktien auf dem Kurszettel.

Die wären nicht die ersten, die verschwinden. Aber soweit wird es nicht kommen. Vermutlich würde ein Mitbewerber die Kapazitäten übernehmen. Ein wichtiger Abnehmer der Stahlindustrie ist die Autoindustrie und die schrumpft zumindest Europaweit gesehen. Das bessert sich auch nicht solange in weiten Teilen Europas Rezession herrscht. Das heißt, Stahl unterliegt sowohl der immanenten Zyklik als auch einem Strukturwandel. Was meinen Einstigeszeitpunkt anlangt. Der mag zu Früh sein, aber es ist nur ein sehr sehr kleine gehebelte Position. Aber dadruch bekomme ich ein Gefühl für die Aktie, ganz unabhängig von dem fundamentalen und makro faktoren. Mit ziemlicher Sicherheit hast du recht, dass sich das auch erst in ein paar Jahren auszahlen kann, nicht muss. Und vermutlich sieht man noch mal neue Tiefs, aber das liegt in der Natur des ContrarianInvestors.

Ein Großteil meines Portfolios ist ja wirklich in den sogenannten High Quality MegaCaps investiert. Da kann man schon ein paar Positionen in Turnaround- und Unloved-Kandidaten gehen, die dann eben ein paar Jahre dauern, bis sie aufgehen, wenn sie aufgehen...