Original-Research

DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG (von Montega AG): Buy

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Original-Research: DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG - von Montega AG

Einstufung von Montega AG zu DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG

Unternehmen: DEAG Deutsche Entertainment AG
ISIN: DE000A0Z23G6

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: Buy
seit: 18.12.2019
Kursziel: 6.10
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 months
Letzte Ratingänderung: -
Analyst: Henrik Markmann

Acquisition in ticketing strengthens market position in the UK
DEAG announced the day before yesterday an acquisition in the area of ticketing. The company took a stake of 75% in the British ticketing provider Gigantic Holdings Limited, which was founded in 2007. The company claims to be one of the largest independent providers in the UK with more than 1.0m tickets sold per year.

Gigantic's ticket platform exclusively offers third-party content such as concerts, events and festivals of artists like Elton John, James Blunt or Lana Del Rey. We believe the platform is a meaningful supplement to DEAG's ticketing business as it mainly offers own content. We understand that Gigantic's ticketing is handled by an in-house software, so the margin should even be higher than that of MyTicket. As a reminder: MyTicket has been collaborating with SecuTix since the beginning of Q3/19 and therefore should have significantly reduced the platform's cost base. We assume that MyTicket has an EBITDA margin of between 30% and 35%, whereas we consider a margin of 35% and 40% to be realistic for Gigantic.

Last but not least, DEAG's acquisition underlines the high relevance of the UK market, which is the center of business activities with 44% of group sales, alongside Germany and Switzerland with 56%. The UK is the second largest market in the media and entertainment industry after Germany. According to PwC, this market is expected to grow even stronger at an average rate of 2.8% p.a. to GBP 76.0bn by 2022 (CAGR 2018-2022 Germany: 1.8%). Based on the constantly increasing digitization also in Germany, ticketing is likely to benefit to a disproportionate degree.
DEAG expects to have sold more than 1.1m tickets via MyTicket in 2019. This corresponds to growth of c. 60% yoy driven amongst others by an exclusive pre-sale of some 150k tickets for Böhse Onkelz concerts as well as over 500k tickets for the Christmas Garden events. Based on additional inorganic growth after the acquisition of Gigantic, management expects to see at least a doubling of the ticket volume to well in excess of 2.0m tickets sales in 2020.

For 2020, we expect an additional sales contribution of EUR 1.7m and EBITDA of EUR 0.7m thanks to the full consolidation of Gigantic. The companies have agreed to keep the purchase price confidential. However, we consider an EBITDA multiple of 7x to 9x to be realistic for an established and high-margin company. Based on our estimates, the purchase price should have been between EUR 5.0m and EUR 5.5m. This has been taken into account in our valuation model. If DEAG succeeds in marketing all of its own events through Gigantic on the UK market in the medium term, this would be a powerful lever. Additional momentum in ticketing can be expected in the subsequent years in our view, for instance if Ed Sheeran would tour with DEAG again.

Conclusion: We regard the ticketing acquisition as meaningful both strategically and in the short to medium term. After having slightly increased our estimates from 2020 onwards, we therefore confirm our buy rating. The new price target is EUR 6.10 (previously: EUR 6.00).


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About Montega
Montega AG is one of the leading independent German research institutions with a strong focus on German SMEs. The Coverage Universe includes stocks from the MDAX, TecDAX and SDAX as well as selected second-line stocks and is constantly being expanded through successful stock picking. Montega is an outsourced research provider for institutional investors and focuses on publishing research as well as on organizing roadshows, field trips and conferences. The company addresses long-term oriented value investors, asset managers and Family offices primarily from Germany, Switzerland and Luxembourg. The analysts of Montega are characterized by excellent and frequent contacts to the top management, in-depth market knowledge and many years of experience in the analysis of German small and mid-cap companies.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/19847.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Rating: Buy
Analyst: