IDTechEx Asks How Gate-Based Quantum Computers Will Scale-Up

BOSTON, April 24, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Many players are now competing to create a large-scale, fault-tolerant, gate-based quantum computer. In IDTechEx's latest report, "Quantum Computing Market 2024-2044: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts", it is predicted that this market will grow with a CAGR of at least 30% and is on track to become a multi-billion dollar industry. But how will it get there? This article overviews how this industry is planning to scale up hardware systems and truly start competing with existing supercomputers.

Breaking the 1000 qubit barrier

Building a quantum computer is hard. Building a large-scale, fault-tolerant, gate-based machine to solve a range of complex commercial problems is even harder. 2023 was an exciting year for quantum computing enthusiasts. Both IBM and Atom Computing announced breaking through the 1000 qubit barrier, a significant milestone on the road to large-scale hardware realization. Moreover, public announcements of contract securements and even delivery of on-premises hardware continued – with examples across almost all major qubit modalities.

Yet, for many, evidence is also mounting that the hype surrounding quantum computing may be past its peak. The number of start-ups emerging appears to have plateaued, and globally, VC reticence is reported to be rising. Despite the growing list of US$100M round closures in quantum - Photonic Inc, Oxford Quantum Circuits, and Quantinuum, to name just a few – overall, far more capital is flowing the way of artificial intelligence (AI) and biotech. Worse still – the 'quantum talent crisis' is intensifying, with many players struggling to recruit the physicists, quantum engineers, chip designers, and computer scientists they need to grow. Meanwhile, quantum annealing leaders D-Wave are already ramping up their product scale capabilities with logistics-focused customers, which could also draw end-user attention away from the gate-based community in the near term.

So, as pressure mounts on the gate-based quantum computing market to utilize its capital and demonstrate that it is on track toward commercial value creation, what are the crucial next steps for hardware developers?

The logical qubit era

Awareness of the importance of reducing errors in quantum computers has grown significantly. Individual physical qubits are notoriously vulnerable to decoherence from a variety of noise sources – from temperature and electromagnetic radiation to crosstalk. Decoherence is catastrophic for quantum advantage, seeing qubits no longer simultaneously represent 1s and 0s but quite classically 1s or 0s.