Janus Henderson Bond-Manager Mulliner: Warum 2020 ein Jahr der zwei Hälften wird

We had expected a substantial slowdown in economic growth for the year and consequently positioned for lower rates and wider spreads. While the slowing growth environment and lower rates outlook came to pass, it was notable how resilient risk markets were (albeit coming off the back of a very weak period in the fourth quarter of 2018).

Instead of slowing growth and concerns about recession driving credit spreads wider over the year, we found that dovish central banks, lower rates and the reapplication of quantitative easing (QE) in the US and Europe helped to sustain risk markets and deliver stellar returns across asset classes as investors climbed a wall of worry over Brexit and trade.

In spite of the concerns raised by investors on a perennial basis that central banks are out of ammunition and pushing on a string, it seems that once again it has been the central bankers that have triumphed over economic fundamentals. The question now is where to from here?

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