New COVID-19 Forecasts for Europe

Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll

151,680 Europeans and UK Residents Projected to Die in 'First Wave' of Pandemic

Significant Shortage Projected for Hospital Beds, ICU Beds, and Ventilators

'Unequivocally evident that social distancing can help control the trajectory of the pandemic'

SEATTLE, April 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- New COVID-19 estimates find that, among European nations, the peak daily death rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April, with the pandemic spreading from Southern Europe.

The new forecasts, released today by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine, find that approximately 151,680 people will die during what researchers are calling the "first wave" of the pandemic. By comparison, the US is expected to face 81,766 deaths, according to forecasts released on Sunday by IHME. 

"We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many parts of Europe," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "It seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for the United States." 

This is despite the declines in deaths that are now occurring in Italy and Spain.

The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for hospital resources well in excess of what is available. For example, peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794 hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds compared to 799 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators needed (with data currently unavailable on ventilators available).

Today's announcement on Europe finds that most regions of Italy and Spain have passed their peaks in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April.

Countries that are about to peak or are quickly approaching peak in this wave of the epidemic include The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, and Luxembourg. The Czech Republic and Romania are midway through their expected trajectories. Other nations including the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, and Greece are still early in their trajectories and face fast-rising death tolls through their peaks in the second and third weeks of April.