Housing Market Potential Expected to Build on Momentum in 2021, According to First American Potential Home Sales Model - Seite 2

House-Buying Power, Millennials Super-Charge Housing Market Demand

“House-buying power, how much home one can afford to buy given their income and the prevailing mortgage rate, is a key driver of home-buying demand. The primary reason for the increase in house-buying power in 2020 was falling mortgage rates. Since December 2019, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell by slightly more than one percentage point. Holding household income constant at its December 2019 level, that means potential home buyers gained nearly $60,000 in house-buying power from falling mortgage rates alone,” said Fleming. “If you factor in the growth in household income, home buyers gained approximately $87,000 of total house-buying power in 2020. Because an increase in house-buying power allows a potential home buyer to purchase more home for the same monthly payment or purchase the same amount of home for a lower monthly payment, increased house-buying power helped super-charge housing market potential. Compared with one year ago, falling mortgage rates and rising incomes for those still employed resulted in nearly 389,000 potential home sales in December.”

Rising Tenure Squeezes Housing Market Supply

“Existing-home sales make up approximately 90 percent of all sales, so the rising tenure length of existing homeowners means fewer and fewer homes for sale and is the primary reason for the lack of housing supply. As existing homeowners have increasingly chosen not to list their homes for sale during the pandemic, average tenure length – the amount of time someone lives in their home – has soared to a historic high of approximately 10.5 years, up from an average of 10 years just one year ago,” said Fleming. “In last month’s existing-home sales report, months’ supply hit a historic low of 2.3 months. That means it would take just over two months to run out of homes for sale at the current pace of sales. The lack of homes for sale caused by the increase in tenure length reduced the potential for existing-home sales by 170,200 in December compared with a year ago.

“What should we expect in 2021? More of the same, but in a more positive economic environment. The successful dissemination of a vaccine should put an end to the ‘stop-start’ pattern of restrictions imposed on businesses, which should help the economy recover. Low mortgage rates will continue to support strong house-buying power as more and more millennials age into homeownership, keeping demand robust,” said Fleming. “While the supply-demand imbalance will persist, existing homeowners who were hesitant to sell amidst the worst of the pandemic may be encouraged to bring their homes to market, relieving some of the supply shortage. Swelling demand and the potential for greater supply means housing market potential in 2021 is likely to remain strong and build off a historic 2020.”