ODDS OF A SOFT LANDING FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY ARE RISING AS MANUFACTURING STABILIZES IN SEPTEMBER, BUT RECESSION ALARM BELLS RING FOR EUROPE

GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX - Seite 2

SEPTEMBER 2023 KEY FINDINGS

• DEMAND: While the downturn in demand for raw materials, commodities and components appears to be stabilizing, the pace of decline is showing no real signs of slowing as purchasing activity fell again at a similar rate to those seen in the summer months.
• INVENTORIES: Global businesses continue to shy away from stockpiling, indicating a generally pessimistic outlook for demand.
• MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Supply shortages have ended, with reports of item scarcity now in line with historically normal levels.
• LABOR SHORTAGES: Labor shortages remain generally unproblematic for global businesses. Some of the issues manufacturers in Europe and North America experienced with respect to staff availability in August receded in September.
• TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation costs fell in September following August's renewed rise, albeit only slightly.

REGIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY

• NORTH AMERICA: Index rose to -0.30, from -0.55, its highest since April, hinting at greater odds of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
• EUROPE: Sharp fall in the index to -1.01, from -0.50, putting it at levels seen during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Europe was the principal driver of excess supplier capacity globally in September.
• U.K.: Suppliers to the U.K. continue to see substantial rises in spare capacity. Index fell to -0.98 from -0.92.
• ASIA: Index drops to -0.20, from 0.06, highlighting deteriorating economic conditions in the East after a relatively resilient year-to-date.

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The next release of the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index will be 8 a.m. ET, November 14, 2023.

ABOUT THE GEP GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY INDEX

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index is produced by S&P Global and GEP. It is derived from S&P Global's PMI surveys, sent to companies in over 40 countries, totaling around 27,000 companies. The headline figure is a weighted sum of six sub-indices derived from PMI data, PMI Comments Trackers and PMI Commodity Price & Supply Indicators compiled by S&P Global.