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e-fundresearch: "Which are the most important factors currently when you assess Asia ex Japan equities?"

Caroline Keen, alternate manager, "Newton Asian Income GBP Inc" (14.02.2012): "It is important to consider both global and Asian factors when considering Asian equities. Factors external to the region have had considerable impact on markets in the region in recent years as correlation between markets has been relatively high with investors moving between “risk on” and “risk off” periods in unison.
We believe the two most important external factors are the ongoing crisis in Europe and the US recovery. In recent months investors have become slightly more comfortable with the situation in Europe, however, we do not believe that the recent long term deficit reduction plan in the EU is sufficient to solve the deep rooted problems of over indebtedness and lack of competitiveness, and therefore expect these issues to dampen markets for some time. It also remains to be seen how a full default, or exit from the Euro, by Greece or anyone else will be taken by markets.
Recent data from the US has been more positive, which is encouraging for exports from Asia as well as for global economic growth. However, this improvement is still minor, which is highlighted by the fact that the Fed has committed to interest rates near 0% until 2014. Continued loose monetary policy in the US is beneficial for Asia for a number of reasons, not least the fact that it will mean a weaker US$ than otherwise, which traditionally is positive for emerging market equities.
The other external issue that has raised its head again recently is tensions in the Middle East. If Iran retaliates to sanctions imposed upon it by the US and EU either by closing the Straits of Hormuz as threatened or in some other way, it could cause the oil price to spike dramatically. This would be destabilising for world growth, although we do not see this as a base case.
The most important factor internal to the region is the outlook for China. Following the massive stimulus in 2009 and 2010, China has less ability to manufacture growth than previously. Nonetheless, policymakers still have considerable tools at their disposal and have, to date, had remarkable influence in the path of the economy. We expect the authorities to loosen selectively when necessary such that growth in 2012 will be lower, but not drastically so. Further out we are less positive due to structural concerns of over investment, lack of sustainable profitability and a dysfunctional banking market. These problems will start to manifest more materially when growth slows, more so than the market is expecting.