Die besten Nordamerika Aktienfonds

Die Fondsmanager der besten Nordamerika Aktienfonds haben exklusiv für e-fundresearch 5 Fragen zur konjunkturellen Entwicklung in den USA, den Gewichtungen in ihren Fonds, den Fundamentaldaten und den Performance- und Risikokennzahlen beantwortet.

e-fundresearch: "What is your current outlook for the U.S. over the next 12 months?"

Eric McLaughlin, Senior Investment Specialist, "Fortis L Equity Growth USA Cap" (06.08.2010): "We entered 2010 expecting a gradually improving global economy, coupled with the likelihood of some interest rate increases. We thought this environment would be one where equities would outperform other asset classes. We believed that corporate profit growth would be healthy and that economic growth in the United States and the rest of the developed world would likely be above trend, but well below the typical recovery after a recession. We also believed that there would be little room for P/E multiple improvement, and that stocks would require earnings growth to move forward driven by increased revenues.

At this point, it is fair to say that financial markets have not performed exactly as we expected, with equities in negative territory on a year-to-date basis. The scenario where risky assets would outperform defensive assets on the back of improving economic growth and corporate earnings played out through the middle of April, but renewed credit problems and the market correction of the past two months have created a more uncertain environment.

Looking ahead, we expect that equity markets should be able to make additional gains over the course of this year. This outlook is not so much a forecast of significantly improving economic news as it is an expectation that many of the risks facing investors will fade over the coming months. Currently, we believe that equity market valuations have become more attractive, especially when compared to alternatives. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 recently fell to around 13 times, its lowest level since 1995. Compared to the extremely low yields being offered by Treasuries, many investors have decided that stocks have become more attractive.

From our perspective, it appears to us that the fears over a double-dip recession have overtaken the likelihood of one actually happening, since current market prices and valuations are discounting almost no economic growth. To us, such a view is unreasonably pessimistic. Corporate balance sheets remain healthy and consumers are still spending, albeit modestly. The macro backdrop remains shaky, but economic growth is continuing and monetary and fiscal policy around the world remains market-friendly. Chinese policymakers have been changing their tone recently and seem to be signaling that they will end their tightening campaign. The euro area remains credit-impaired, but the results of the stress tests reveal that credit issues are unlikely to destabilize the broader economic system."