Back-to-School U.S. Retail Sales Expected to Grow 5.5%* Compared to Last Year, According to Mastercard SpendingPulse

As students wrap up the current school year, retailers – and parents – are already preparing for a robust back-to-school shopping season as more kids head back into the classroom. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, U.S. retail sales are expected to grow 5.5% excluding automotive and gas during the critical July 15 through September 6 back-to-school period compared to 2020. Compared to 2019, sales are expected to grow 6.7%.

“Back to school has always been a prime season for retailers. This year, the broader reopening brings an exciting wave of optimism as children prepare for another school year, and the grown-ups in their lives approach a similar ‘return to office’ scenario,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated. “This back-to-school season will be defined by choice as online sales remain robust, brick and mortar browsing regains momentum and strong promotions help retailers compete for shoppers' wallets.”

Anticipated Back-to-School Retail Sales
	Anticipated Year-Over-Year (YOY) Growth 2021 (July 15-September 6) vs. 2020 (July 16-September 7)	Anticipated Year-Over-Two Years (YO2Y) Growth 2021 (July 15-September 6) vs. 2019 (July 13-September 4)
Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto and Gas)	+5.5%	+6.7%
Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto)	+10.0%	+9.1%
E-commerce Sales	-6.6%	+53.2%
Apparel	+78.2%	+11.3%
Electronics	+13.0%	+9.6%
Department Stores	+25.3%	+9.5%
Source: Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures overall retail sales across all payment types, including cash and check

Sector-Level Back-to-School Trends:

As the broader U.S. reopening occurs and consumers return to brick and mortar, we anticipate e-commerce sales will ease slightly compared to last year (-6.6%) but will remain up a significant amount (+53.2%) when compared to 2019. In terms of what consumers are buying this back-to-school season, we anticipate the following retail trends: