Original-Research
Expedeon AG (von GBC AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Expedeon AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Expedeon AG
Unternehmen: Expedeon AG
ISIN: DE000A2YN801
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 3.20 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2020
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Half-year figures for 2019 meet our expectations, significant increase in revenue and earnings, stock price target and BUY-rating confirmed
Expedeon management confirmed its previous forecast with the publication of the 2019 half-year figures. As a result, double-digit sales growth compared with 2018 and adjusted EBITDA of more than
EUR 2.0 million is still expected. Based on the 30.8% increase in revenue achieved in the first six months of 2019, the revenue forecast should be easily achievable. On the basis of the second
quarter of 2019, in which revenues of EUR 3.90 million were generated, the run rate projected for the financial year is EUR 15.60 million. Against this backdrop, our revenue forecasts of EUR 15.93
million, which also include a continuation of the positive growth momentum in the second half of the year, are realistic assumptions.
In addition to increased revenue from existing products (expansion of sales, expansion of partner business, cross-selling, etc.), Expedeon AG should also benefit in the medium term from the
introduction of new products that are based on existing technology. Within the platform technologies TruePrimeTM, Lightning-Link(R) and CaptSureTM, new products could be introduced in the short and
medium term leading to potential revenue of over EUR 20.0 million per year. In addition, products in the field of diagnostics should increasingly complement our product range. Accordingly, we
expect sales growth to continue at the same level in the medium term and expect to exceed EUR 20.0 million turnover as early as the coming financial year 2020.
At the earnings level, we also confirm the forecasts published in the research study (see study dated 23/07/19). The EBITDA of EUR 2.18 million that we expect for 2019 Expedeon shares, assuming a
constant development of the share price, would amount to an adjusted EBITDA of approximately EUR 3.0 million. Expedeon AG achieved an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1.21 million for the first six months of
2019, making our EBITDA forecast easily achievable. We expect the EBITDA margin to increase to over 20% in the coming financial years, with EBITDA margins of 35% achievable on the basis of
correspondingly high revenue levels combined with an increasing share of high-margin licence revenue. This assumption is shown in the continuity phase of our DCF valuation model.
Due to the fact that half-year development was in line with our expectations in absolute terms, we not only confirm our forecasts, but also leave our DCF valuation model unchanged. We thus confirm
our previous stock price target of EUR 3.20 per share and maintain the BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/19119.pdf
Lesen Sie auch
Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Vorstand
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (4,5a,7,10,11); Einen Katalog
möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (Time) of completion: 04/10/2019 (1:51 pm)
Datum (Time) first distribution: 07/10/2019 (09:00 am)
übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
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Analyst: GBC