Schwab Survey

Bullish Sentiment Surges Among Retail Traders - Seite 2

9%

7%

7%

6%

7%

Potential of a recession

9%

11%

14%

18%

15%

Inflation

9%

11%

10%

8%

12%

Fed holding rates steady

6%

3%

1%

n/a

n/a

Traders point to the U.S. presidential election (42%), the direction of the federal funds rate (37%) inflation (34%) and geopolitical conflict (31%) as the factors that will have the biggest impacts on the markets this year.

Concerns aside, traders’ confidence in their own decision-making, similar to bullishness, hit the highest level since Schwab began its survey at 68%. Additionally, the number of traders who say they feel better off financially compared to a year ago reached 54%, up 21 percentage points quarter-over-quarter.

“It’s encouraging to see that traders’ overall confidence in their decision-making continues to grow,” said Kostulias. “Part of that is market-driven, but it also aligns with what we’re seeing in terms of trader clients’ interest and engagement with investing and educational tools, content, and research. As traders utilize more tools and resources, they are in a better position to vet ideas and strategies and make informed trading decisions. That is why this is such a big focus at Schwab, and a critical component of the Schwab Trading Powered by Ameritrade ecosystem.”

Sector and asset class outlook

At the sector level, traders are most bullish on information technology (55%), followed by health care (51%) and energy (46%). They are most bearish about real estate (41%) and consumer discretionary stocks (35%).

Traders are largely bullish on AI stocks (61%), as well as value stocks (54%) and domestic equities (52%), while they are most bearish on international stocks (35%), U.S. Treasuries (33%), and cryptocurrency (32%).

Looking ahead to the next three months, about half of traders plan to move money into individual stocks while nearly 40% plan to move money into ETFs.

Portfolio Changes Planned in Next 3 Months