IDTechEx Finds Electric Haul Trucks to Become a US$15 Billion Industry - Seite 3

Altogether, despite multiple expensive battery replacements, total ownership costs are strongly in favor of electrification. Mining companies will be able to save nearly US$2.5 million per haul truck electrified, and trucks will break even on their added CAPEX in under 3 years. Given that the volumes of electric haul trucks are still so small, there is plenty of room for the cost of batteries to fall below the US$300/kWh estimate by IDTechEx. Simultaneously, the frequency of battery replacements will decrease as cycle life improves. As these happen, the financial advantages of electric haul trucks over diesel ones will become even more significant.

What do EVs still need?

If electric haul trucks are so financially attractive, why are they not yet widespread? First and most importantly, batteries require size and endurance that are in line with the demands of haul truck duty cycles while still maintaining relative affordability. This aspect has only recently been achievable from battery suppliers such as CATL, ABB, and Northvolt, and the industry is now expanding in response. Development of haul truck batteries is in its infancy – a wide range of designs and chemistries are currently being employed to meet performance demands, and there is yet to be an industry-wide consensus.

Productivity is another sticking point in the adoption of electric haul trucks. Currently, it is impossible for an electric truck to match the uptime of diesel. Where a diesel truck only needs 10 minutes a day to refuel, EVs need to be charged multiple times a day for two to three hours in total. Mining companies will not be willing to adopt a technology if it means sacrificing the productivity and output of their operations.

Electric haul trucks can be over 10% more efficient than diesel trucks (through a combination of higher speeds and less maintenance time), which goes some way to minimizing the impact of electrification on productivity. Still, OEMs are looking to eliminate any impact entirely by extending battery runtimes as much as possible and by bringing in faster charging methods.

Charging is an obstacle for electric haul trucks in its own right. To maintain the productivity that mining companies demand, haul trucks need to be charged at rates of 1 to 3C. High charging rates can compromise the cycle life of batteries, which would necessitate more frequent battery replacements. It remains to be seen if a wide array of battery technologies from various suppliers will be able to be consistently charged at such high rates.