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e-fundresearch: "What is your global macro outlook for the rest of 2012? Which are the most important factors currently when you assess global equity markets?"

Didier Saint-Georges, Mitglied des Investmentkomitees von Carmignac Gestion, "Carmignac Investissement A" (01.06.2012): "While the beginning of the year was particularly good for the equity markets owing to an abundance of liquidity, recent weeks have seen all global financial marketplaces take a nosedive. Following a five-month market rebound, concerns surrounding global growth and the eurozone crisis have sparked renewed aversion to risky assets.

The European crisis is far from over. The eurozone may have briefly benefited from the ECB’s two 3-year refinancing operations (LTRO), but systemic risk was at the best brushed under the proverbial carpet while a credit crunch was avoided. While the issue of bank liquidity is temporarily being addressed, the problem of economic growth remains and with it that of the solvency of sovereign issuers. The introduction of a drastic deficit-cutting programme in France is weighing a little more heavily on European demand in the short term, thereby reducing growth and weakening government issuers even further.In this complex environment, we still expect a recession in most European countries this year, with all the negative repercussions this will have for their budgetary positions, not to mention the contagion to the eurozone’s more robust countries. German government bonds will still provide a safe haven but they are becoming less secure.

The US economic situation appears much more enviable by comparison. Benefiting from a central bank happy to act as a lender of last resort, the United States felt able to let its finances drift a little further without having to suffer massive public debt clearances, which would have pushed up financing costs. Economic growth therefore seems to be on a safer footing in the United States than in Europe where nothing is being done to stimulate growth in the immediate future. This key advantage is backed up by an undervalued dollar, increased competitiveness through labour market flexibility, particularly enviable corporate finances with interest charges at a 50-year low, the increasing likelihood that the property market will stabilise as household debt has fallen from 130% to 113% of disposable income since the beginning of the crisis, and much greater fiscal leeway than in Europe. In the short term, the consumer sector represents the pillar most likely to crumble if household income continues to shrink.