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| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
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| 0,5900 | +43,20 | |
| 0,9500 | +31,94 | |
| 19,650 | +11,77 | |
| 17,790 | +10,84 | |
| 0,6000 | +9,09 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 4,1500 | -9,29 | |
| 6,5700 | -9,63 | |
| 4,6700 | -10,19 | |
| 4,2000 | -11,39 | |
| 0,7000 | -15,66 |
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Analysten-Bewertung Target Price 2,79 GBP
"Gulf Keystone Petroleum
Unlocking Kurdistan
Current price 155p
Target price 279p
Gulf Keystone Petroleum's key operations are in Kurdistan, Northern Iraq. Its main asset is the Shaikan field in which it holds a 75% working interest (51% post government back-in). The company has a high degree of political and legal risk, but the sheer size and potential of the assets in the portfolio has made it a popular stock in the sector. Given the recent resource upgrade, we initiate coverage with a Buy rating and set a risked target price of 279p, which still offers c.80% potential upside from the current price.
• Just how big is Shaikan? The updated CPR estimates that the field has gross oil-in-place (OIP) resources at 4.9bnbbl (P90) to 10.8bnbbl (P10), with a mean of 7.5bnbbl. However, much more work is required to ascertain how much can actually be recovered from this field. Heritage Oil’s and Sterling Energy’s experiences in Kurdistan show how difficult the geology can be and we would caution investors on making grand assumptions prior to drilling.
• Focused on Kurdistan. Following the formation of the Iraqi government, Kurdistan is now in a better position to negotiate on outstanding issues with central government. The Iraqi government is endeavouring to stimulate the economy by increasing oil output to 3.0mmbbl/d by the end of this year, compared with 2.4mmbbl/d in December 2010, and is relying on exports from Kurdish fields to meet this target.
• Political and legal uncertainty. The relationship between the Kurd Regional Government (KRG) and the Iraqi Central Government has improved since the formation of the parliament, but there are still considerable issues outstanding which need to be resolved. The issue relating to payment for exported oil remains unresolved. In addition, the company is in dispute with
Excalibur’s claim that it is entitled to a 30% interest in Shaikan. Both of these situations introduce a high degree of uncertainty into GKP’s operations which investors need to take a view on.
• Valuation and recommendation. We have based our exploration valuation on the CPR for Shaikan. In addition, we have included a DCF valuation for the small amount of oil production during the extended well test at the field. We have also assumed GKP’s interest is not at the working interest level, but at the government back-in level where appropriate. We initiate coverage of GKP with a Buy recommendation and set a target price of 279p."
"Gulf Keystone Petroleum
Unlocking Kurdistan
Current price 155p
Target price 279p
Gulf Keystone Petroleum's key operations are in Kurdistan, Northern Iraq. Its main asset is the Shaikan field in which it holds a 75% working interest (51% post government back-in). The company has a high degree of political and legal risk, but the sheer size and potential of the assets in the portfolio has made it a popular stock in the sector. Given the recent resource upgrade, we initiate coverage with a Buy rating and set a risked target price of 279p, which still offers c.80% potential upside from the current price.
• Just how big is Shaikan? The updated CPR estimates that the field has gross oil-in-place (OIP) resources at 4.9bnbbl (P90) to 10.8bnbbl (P10), with a mean of 7.5bnbbl. However, much more work is required to ascertain how much can actually be recovered from this field. Heritage Oil’s and Sterling Energy’s experiences in Kurdistan show how difficult the geology can be and we would caution investors on making grand assumptions prior to drilling.
• Focused on Kurdistan. Following the formation of the Iraqi government, Kurdistan is now in a better position to negotiate on outstanding issues with central government. The Iraqi government is endeavouring to stimulate the economy by increasing oil output to 3.0mmbbl/d by the end of this year, compared with 2.4mmbbl/d in December 2010, and is relying on exports from Kurdish fields to meet this target.
• Political and legal uncertainty. The relationship between the Kurd Regional Government (KRG) and the Iraqi Central Government has improved since the formation of the parliament, but there are still considerable issues outstanding which need to be resolved. The issue relating to payment for exported oil remains unresolved. In addition, the company is in dispute with
Excalibur’s claim that it is entitled to a 30% interest in Shaikan. Both of these situations introduce a high degree of uncertainty into GKP’s operations which investors need to take a view on.
• Valuation and recommendation. We have based our exploration valuation on the CPR for Shaikan. In addition, we have included a DCF valuation for the small amount of oil production during the extended well test at the field. We have also assumed GKP’s interest is not at the working interest level, but at the government back-in level where appropriate. We initiate coverage of GKP with a Buy recommendation and set a target price of 279p."
Freunde lasst die Puppen tanzen!
Gruß Falke7
Gruß Falke7
misst
wollte unter 150 einsteigen jetzt schiesst das ding ne news raus. Werde wieder geduldig warten biss es wieder runter geht
wollte unter 150 einsteigen jetzt schiesst das ding ne news raus. Werde wieder geduldig warten biss es wieder runter geht
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.358.191 von Jimmbo am 13.04.11 00:03:24das ist mal ne Marke
14 April 2011
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")
Shaikan Discovery: P90 volumes increase from 1.9 billion barrels to 4.9 billion barrels
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP) today announces a major revision of the gross oil-in-place volumes for the Shaikan discovery in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
The revised gross oil-in-place volumes for the Shaikan discovery, as calculated by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA), independent Houston-based exploration consultants, are a P90 value of 4.9 billion barrels to a P10 value of 10.8 billion barrels of oil-in-place with a mean value of 7.5 billion barrels and a P1 value of 15 billion barrels.
This is a very significant upward revision from the previously announced range of 1.9 to 7.4 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place with a mean value of 4.2 billion barrels and a P1 value of 13 billion barrels, also calculated by DGA. The revision is based on the data acquired since the last resource evaluation of the Shaikan discovery by DGA issued in January 2010, which was supported by an additional third party analysis by Ryder Scott consultants with a range of gross total petroleum-initially-in-place (PIIP) of 1.52 (P90) to 7.52 (P10) billion barrels.
The new data has been acquired as a result of:
· Shaikan-2 oil discovery and well test in the upper section of the Jurassic section, nine km to the east of Shaikan-1
· Shaikan-1 extended well test production
· Shaikan-3 testing and production results
· Preliminary results of the analysis of 3D seismic data acquired for the Shaikan (599km²) and Sheikh Adi (215km²) blocks
· Evaluation of existing seismic lines and regional geological data for the Ber Bahr, Akri-Bijeel (Bijeel-1 well) and Sheikh Adi blocks.
· PVT (pressure, volume, temperature) analysis of oil samples from the Triassic Kurre Chine tests at Shaikan-1.
The Shaikan-2 appraisal well is now drilling deeper into the Jurassic and is scheduled to drill on into the Triassic. Once the well reaches TD at the bottom of the Triassic or into the top of the Permian interval, the Company will consider a possible further revision of the Shaikan oil-in-place volumes, taking into account additional information from the reservoirs previously only penetrated by Shaikan-1 and from potential additional discoveries from possible zones below those reached by Shaikan-1, projected by DGA to contain an additional 1 to 5 billion barrels of prospective resources.
John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer, commented:
"We have always believed that the initial gross oil-in-place range for the Shaikan discovery was a conservative estimate that would increase as more information became available. This gross oil-in-place volumes revision by DGA, entirely supported by the Company's management and Board of Directors, confirms that belief. We eagerly look forward to additional drilling results from Shaikan-2, the soon to be spudded Shaikan-4 and the remainder of the Shaikan appraisal drilling program. We firmly believe that even with this upward revision the numbers for the Shaikan discovery are still conservative."
14 April 2011
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")
Shaikan Discovery: P90 volumes increase from 1.9 billion barrels to 4.9 billion barrels
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP) today announces a major revision of the gross oil-in-place volumes for the Shaikan discovery in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
The revised gross oil-in-place volumes for the Shaikan discovery, as calculated by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA), independent Houston-based exploration consultants, are a P90 value of 4.9 billion barrels to a P10 value of 10.8 billion barrels of oil-in-place with a mean value of 7.5 billion barrels and a P1 value of 15 billion barrels.
This is a very significant upward revision from the previously announced range of 1.9 to 7.4 billion barrels of gross oil-in-place with a mean value of 4.2 billion barrels and a P1 value of 13 billion barrels, also calculated by DGA. The revision is based on the data acquired since the last resource evaluation of the Shaikan discovery by DGA issued in January 2010, which was supported by an additional third party analysis by Ryder Scott consultants with a range of gross total petroleum-initially-in-place (PIIP) of 1.52 (P90) to 7.52 (P10) billion barrels.
The new data has been acquired as a result of:
· Shaikan-2 oil discovery and well test in the upper section of the Jurassic section, nine km to the east of Shaikan-1
· Shaikan-1 extended well test production
· Shaikan-3 testing and production results
· Preliminary results of the analysis of 3D seismic data acquired for the Shaikan (599km²) and Sheikh Adi (215km²) blocks
· Evaluation of existing seismic lines and regional geological data for the Ber Bahr, Akri-Bijeel (Bijeel-1 well) and Sheikh Adi blocks.
· PVT (pressure, volume, temperature) analysis of oil samples from the Triassic Kurre Chine tests at Shaikan-1.
The Shaikan-2 appraisal well is now drilling deeper into the Jurassic and is scheduled to drill on into the Triassic. Once the well reaches TD at the bottom of the Triassic or into the top of the Permian interval, the Company will consider a possible further revision of the Shaikan oil-in-place volumes, taking into account additional information from the reservoirs previously only penetrated by Shaikan-1 and from potential additional discoveries from possible zones below those reached by Shaikan-1, projected by DGA to contain an additional 1 to 5 billion barrels of prospective resources.
John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer, commented:
"We have always believed that the initial gross oil-in-place range for the Shaikan discovery was a conservative estimate that would increase as more information became available. This gross oil-in-place volumes revision by DGA, entirely supported by the Company's management and Board of Directors, confirms that belief. We eagerly look forward to additional drilling results from Shaikan-2, the soon to be spudded Shaikan-4 and the remainder of the Shaikan appraisal drilling program. We firmly believe that even with this upward revision the numbers for the Shaikan discovery are still conservative."
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.355.426 von Falke7 am 12.04.11 16:02:03okaaay das bedeutet?
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.350.032 von Jimmbo am 11.04.11 17:48:31Unter www.krg.org Press Release vom 11.4.2011 wird berichtet,daß KRG die
ersten Geldzahlungen über SOMO aus Bagdad für Rohölexporte seit Jahresbeginn
demnächst erwartet.Sie sollen an die in Kurdistan ausländischen Ölfirmen
weitergeleitet werden.
Falke7
ersten Geldzahlungen über SOMO aus Bagdad für Rohölexporte seit Jahresbeginn
demnächst erwartet.Sie sollen an die in Kurdistan ausländischen Ölfirmen
weitergeleitet werden.
Falke7
kann mir jemand die aktuellen risiken bei gkp nennen?
Dass grösster Problem scheint ja zu sein dass die vertrage mir der KRG evtl von Bagdad als nichtig erklärt werden und dann noch der streit mit Excalibur der aber wiederum nur ein Witz sein soll.
Als größte Bedrohung wenn ich dass richtig sehe ist der Entzug der Lizenzen durch Bagdad was das aus für gkp bedeuten würde. Im I right?
Dass grösster Problem scheint ja zu sein dass die vertrage mir der KRG evtl von Bagdad als nichtig erklärt werden und dann noch der streit mit Excalibur der aber wiederum nur ein Witz sein soll.
Als größte Bedrohung wenn ich dass richtig sehe ist der Entzug der Lizenzen durch Bagdad was das aus für gkp bedeuten würde. Im I right?
Wo ist eigentlich coxos? lange nichts mehr gehört. Ist er schon raus?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 41.234.741 von Jim_Profit am 18.03.11 22:20:14.... hör ich da samba aus der ferne 
Shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) shot to an eight-month high on Friday after it reported "significant" initial oil flows from a well on its Shaikan block.
The AIM-listed explorer said the substantial smoke and/or the oil flare visible from the Shaikan-2 appraisal well had prompted the company to announce that a "significant flow" had been encountered, sending its shares almost 20% higher in morning trading.
The oil flow is in a 44 metre interval, between 1,792 metres and 1,836 metres, in the Jurassic age formation, it added.
It marks the first deep appraisal well to be drilled on the Shaikan structure, just nine kilometres to the south east of the Shaikan-1 discovery well.
Gulf Keystone is now conducting a test, which is expected to last for another 72 hours, in order to obtain further results such as flow rate and oil quality.
Executive chairman Todd Kozel said: "This initial oil flow continues to confirm our belief in the world class nature of the Shaikan discovery. We are eagerly anticipating more detailed results from the Shaikan-2 well test."
Thumbs up from analysts
Matrix Group analyst Vugar Aliyev said he was awaiting further results: "Initial flow from the Shaikan-2 well is positive, but without proper test information it is impossible to assess the impact of this well on our valuation."
He tagged the stock with a target price of 160p.
Malcolm Graham Wood, advisor at VSA Capital, said: "Accordingly, this is virtually impossible to call but as a long-term fan of the stock and of the view that it is still cheap, I would endorse any upward movement."
Fox Davies Capital said: "This is excellent news for Gulf Keystone, although we have to wait for more data in order to be in a position to make a more definitive assessment. We are increasing our probability of success for the P50 case on Shaikan from 2/3 to 3/4 and raising our price target to 220p.
"We remain strong buyers of the stock, which has been weak for no specific reasons recently."
The AIM-listed explorer said the substantial smoke and/or the oil flare visible from the Shaikan-2 appraisal well had prompted the company to announce that a "significant flow" had been encountered, sending its shares almost 20% higher in morning trading.
The oil flow is in a 44 metre interval, between 1,792 metres and 1,836 metres, in the Jurassic age formation, it added.
It marks the first deep appraisal well to be drilled on the Shaikan structure, just nine kilometres to the south east of the Shaikan-1 discovery well.
Gulf Keystone is now conducting a test, which is expected to last for another 72 hours, in order to obtain further results such as flow rate and oil quality.
Executive chairman Todd Kozel said: "This initial oil flow continues to confirm our belief in the world class nature of the Shaikan discovery. We are eagerly anticipating more detailed results from the Shaikan-2 well test."
Thumbs up from analysts
Matrix Group analyst Vugar Aliyev said he was awaiting further results: "Initial flow from the Shaikan-2 well is positive, but without proper test information it is impossible to assess the impact of this well on our valuation."
He tagged the stock with a target price of 160p.
Malcolm Graham Wood, advisor at VSA Capital, said: "Accordingly, this is virtually impossible to call but as a long-term fan of the stock and of the view that it is still cheap, I would endorse any upward movement."
Fox Davies Capital said: "This is excellent news for Gulf Keystone, although we have to wait for more data in order to be in a position to make a more definitive assessment. We are increasing our probability of success for the P50 case on Shaikan from 2/3 to 3/4 and raising our price target to 220p.
"We remain strong buyers of the stock, which has been weak for no specific reasons recently."
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