Gulf Keystone Irak-Ölperle Deutschland schläft (Seite 99)

[Coxos]

bin gespannt
was der londoner handel morgen aus der meldung macht

[Icke1881]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.645.898 von Coxos am 04.12.10 11:06:53

Scheint ja wirklich auch eine Perle zu sein
Vielen Dank für die regelmäßigen Infos und Aufarbeitungen !!

[Coxos]

kenne ich gar nicht
aber bei tausenden explorern weltweit kein wunder

[summer6]

.....werde kein Stück aus der "Hand" geben!
Abwarten und Glühwein trinken...

@Coxos
Beobachte Geologix Expl. (A0CAFN)
Was hältste davon?

GRUß
Summer6

[Coxos]

freitag kurz vor börsenschluss aus ungarn die mol news
dass im 80/20 mol/gkp block etliche mrd barrel rumliegen
dürfte monatg nen rns bei gkp geben
in den englischen boards bekommen sie sich nicht mehr ein und sind am ausrasten
gkp schtrong bei
was wird aus diesem bisher ver15facher noch werden?

[runn64]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.593.364 von Coxos am 25.11.10 20:36:07

...und operativ ist man ebenfalls nicht untätig;siehe gestrigen news

[Coxos]

INTERVIEW-Kurdish Oil Minister sees exports in early 2011
dann gehts hier weiter hoch
2012 dann die übernahme
zu wieviel ist die einzige frage
die dazu im raum steht
10 euro + x pro aktie????
spannende story
The government of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq expects to soon secure recognition of the oil deals it signed with foreign companies from a new government in Baghdad, the area’s oil minister said on Thursday. Around 40 companies, such as Norway’s DNO , have invested in Kurdistan but their revenues have been curtailed by being unable to sell their oil for export because Baghdad has previously deemed the contracts illegal. Kurdistan Regional Government Minister for Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami told Reuters he expected talks in Baghdad to form a government to lead to an imminent breakthrough on the issue that has been stalled for over four years. “I am confident that the leadership between Kurdistan and Baghdad will address these issues in the coming few days and weeks, before the formation of the government,“ he said in an interview. Iraq’s president formally asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Thursday to form a new government, giving him 30 days to choose a cabinet from among Iraq’s fractious Shi’ite, Kurdish and Sunni political factions. Hawrami said a deal on the oil issue was one of the Kurdish bloc’s key demands and that exports should follow soon after a deal on the government. “I am confident that, by early next year, the oil will be flowing,“ he said. DNO stands ready to export around 50,000 barrels per day if a deal is concluded. Currently, it is confined to selling around 17,000 barrels per day to the local Kurdish market, where it receives less than half international prices for its oil. Other companies including London-listed Gulf Keystone and Heritage Oil and Turkey’s Genel Enerji have also made large discoveries in the region.

[Jimmbo]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.560.381 von Coxos am 20.11.10 22:25:37

interessante Seite die du da hast mit den unterschiedlichen Aktien.

[Coxos]

jede menge news stehen
kann ich gar ncith alles aufzählen
aber einige sehen hier noch ver10fachungspotential
schau dich mal in den englichen gkp boards um
advfn und iii
an tagen mit news hast du dort >1.000 postings
pro tag wohlgemerkt

von heute
I am soon to receive the last injection of funds from the day job. The lump sum at the end of a full and varied career is one of life’s little milestones and how to spend / invest it, needs to be considered and viewed carefully.

Conventional wisdom says to buy an annuity, put it in the building society, buy bonds – but none of these appeals to me, and with some caveats agreed with Mrs D, most of the funds are earmarked for Mr Market.

So recently I have sat down with a large piece of paper to review where I should put this last significant sum.

At this point I took a long look at my portfolio. In no way can it be said to be balanced! GKP currently represents 87% of the funds invested. See my Zurich Axioms post for the reasons why!

The question: should I add to this percentage is however still a vexed one!

Like many here I am fortunate that I invested early in the life cycle of GKP. I held GKP prior to them gaining the BHB concession in Algeria but sold out at 40p on the way down to the 4p low. My largest new investment in terms of number of shares bought was at 5.6p. Additional buys have taken my average price to 26p. I know this company well – warts and all!

When faced with a share price of £1.86 there is a certain resistance to buying at what is a hugely inflated price relative to my average buy price. It is not easy to overcome this feeling and I suspect many have faced this dilemma.

The little voice in your head murmurs– I wish I had this new money back when the share was cheep! It’s too late now to invest more!

A good friend-GRH -recently said to me that there is no such thing as a ‘hold!’ Investing is always about reviewing your portfolio and taking out the comfortable ‘hold’ scenario focuses the mind wonderfully!

If you assess your portfolio by asking the question: would I buy more at the current share price, (ignoring personal involvement and history in a particular share) the decision becomes easier. If the answer to this question is no, then the share is probably a sell!

So this is the question I am asking myself. Is GKP a buy at £1.86 given I already holding a fair chunk at an average price of 26p! Lets see.

Confidence in the Management.

Over the time I have been associated with GKP the perception of the management has, IMHO, changed dramatically. Strangely the way the management is viewed varies, depending on the bulletin board read by the punter. The old view of the GKP management was that they were decidedly dodgy. This viewpoint is still alive and kicking on the TMF board. Bargepoles are often mentioned and dark rumblings are often brought up about the quality of the management. Over on Advfn there is a diametrically opposed view – Todd is God and can do no wrong. The truth as always lies somewhere between the two! The need to be independent in thought and to DYOR without being swayed by posters on a particular board is therefore paramount. I include my views in this – you must DYOR!

Certainly in the old days GKP failed to deliver the early promise of its six Algerian blocks. Over the years I slowly began to understand that working in Algeria was fraught with problems. Sonatrach was not an easy partner. The management promised much but failed to deliver. To be fair they never gave up – RAK saw the potential in the Algerian acreage and an offer was accepted at 70p only to be scuppered by Sonatrach and the Algerian Government demanding a 10million additional sum. Dark mutterings were forthcoming about the quality of the management, but TK and the board pulled a rabbit from the hat by obtaining the BHB blocks. Institutional investors put up a fair chunk of money only to see the SP decline – this did not go down well in the city. A second rabbit was produced when BG became GKP’s partner – early drilling success followed, but the market crash put paid to any SP rise. Again the management continued to be proactive gaining two blocks in the wildcat Kurdistan region of Iraq.

At this time the management were slated as serial disappointers, the city had been burnt on a number of placing and confidence in the company was low. Many posters on BBs had also been burnt and were out for blood. Seeing through the negativity was difficult but Heritage had a find at Miran and it was this that made me once again go over the figures. If you were prepared to ignore the past, GKP was a screaming buy at 5p, Algeria alone more than covered this and Kurdistan was in for free, but not many could see it that way. IIs and PIs had a jaundiced view of the management.

This little diversion into the past history explains the legacy of distrust that still rears its head on TMF and includes some institutional fund managers. It probably explains the city view of GKP along with the Alphaville stance, which I believe also stems from the city.

This history made GKP an easy target for naysayers and de-rampers. The 9p placing added to the distrust and the ETAMIC deal played into the hands of those that said this was a shady company involved in murky deals.

So what has changed? Given an opportunity the BOD have always seized the initiative;
• They were brave in entering Algeria
• Proactive in gaining new blocks
• Proactive in securing quality partners
• Brave in seizing the nettle of investing in Kurdistan.

• Given a chance this company will run with the ball!

The last bullet point is key for me.

• GKP has shown leadership and good judgement in drilling their blocks, not least in securing Weatherford.
• They have obtained two more blocks and have cleared away the ETAMIC problems
• They continue to be proactive in securing additional rigs
• Over the last 18 months THEY HAVE DELIVERED ON EVERY PROMISE.

In conclusion I have to say that I have every confidence in the Management. They have learnt from the mistakes of the past and we are now seeing unprecedented news flow. They pass my critical confidence test.

The BOD has a huge stake in making this company succeed through their share holdings and options – their motivation is aligned with mine!

A tick up for the management. √

GEOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS

When looking for a place to invest my retirement money I am looking for a little bit more than pure wildcat exploration opportunities. All but one of my companies in my portfolio have some production to place a break on the downside. President Petroleum has production from its Louisiana blocks but it also has medium risk exploration through its Lafoury campaign to be followed in Feb by Northumberland 2 a wildcat in Australia. The combination of production and explosive potential is certainly there.

Leni Gas is similar. Production underpins the share price; indeed the SP does not reflect this production. Explosive upside is possible through the deep plays in the Spanish acreage. LGO has been a serial disappointer in the same way that GKP was. It is an unloved stock something I look for, provided the potential is also there! David Lenigas has just appointed a new CEO with 34 years of experience and again, share options and personal holdings mean that the CEOs motivation is aligned with that of the PI. I’m happy to go with LGO!

Returning to GKP, at Shaikan we are now in the appraisal stage. We are on the cusp of production and OIP numbers are set to rapidly rise. Shaikan and Akri Bejeel derisk the geological risk involved in Sheik Adi and Ber Bahr.

I am invested in Vast but have recently reduced my holding. The perceived geological risk is much greater at Qara Dagh than at Shaikan and Vast cannot at the moment offer me production. That is not to say that Vast is a bad investment. On the contrary it has the potential for explosive upside but is it the right home for my retirement money? Given my criteria of good management who have substantial personal investment in the company with the SP underpinned by production, Vast is not an easy home for my lump sum. That is not to say that I will not ‘punt’ a few thousand in Vast's direction but as Vast stands today it is not a natural home for my final retirement pot. Perhaps 5% will go Vast’s way.

On the other hand GKP now fulfils many of my lump sum criteria. The understanding of the geology on its blocks is well advanced and the geological risk is consequently derisked. I don’t intend to go any further into this aspect of the decision making process. BBBS, Gramacho and Great Swami are far better qualified than I to take this argument forward. Enough to say that GKP gets a tick up on geological risk. A tick up for the management. √

Financial Risks

Throughout my involvement with GKP this has always been a biggy. In the early days GKP staggered from one financial crisis to another. Placings were frequent – look at the SEDA draw down days and the caveat in the accounts about the company being a sound financial concern able to go forward was always a risk. That s until now!

The recent over subscribe placement gives $250m in the war chest with production revenue still to come. I believe that for the first time GKP finance is not an issue in the short term. And I think that the short term is all that is left in the life cycle of this company. I give GKP a tick up on finance. √

Political Risk

There is no getting away from the fact that this is still a factor in the GKP mix. The formation of a government in Iraq with the KRG playing a pivotal role is encouraging. The news from the London road show that the KRG would make up any shortfall between the PSC and the IOM contracts does much to derisk financial risk. With the entry of the big boys – Marathon and to a lesser extent Murphy with Sinopec already operating in Kurdistan I believe that the political component is within my own risk limits. I give GKP a qualified tick up on political risk. √

Upside

You have only to read my ‘Blue sky thinking posts’ to assess my views on the potential upside. My NAVs are out there on record and I still see a ten bagger potential from here. So I return to my average buy price of 26p do I really want to ruin this personal statistic by buying more?

The question is actually irrelevant. The only question I need to answer boils down to – is GKP a sell, buy or hold at this price? If I take out the hold option from the equation the answer becomes clear. GKP is still a screaming buy at these levels and I will be adding more when the lump sum finally arrives!

Sorry for the long waffle but I find writing down my thought processes helps me personally – I hope it also helps you. :0)

Any comments welcome

Kind regards

Dalesman

[Jimmbo]

Danke
Und bezüglich psa hatte ich gedacht dass sie dass Land erworben haben gegen cash. Und klar ist dass sie es über hohe steuern auch was vom Kuchen abbekommen. Hatte mit so einer großen Beteiligung von staatlicher Seite her nicht gerechnet. Werde die Aktie im Auge behalten und bei einer Korrektur kaufen (sieht ja momentan nach einer Korrektur aus).

Werden in nächster Zeit noch news erwartet?