Market and Policy Dislocations Could Peak in Q1 of 2015, Warns Saxo Bank - Seite 2

in advanced economies and higher trade growth, with the major
downside risk to global growth in 2015 coming from geopolitical
tensions. More specifically:


- The US economy will continue to grow at a robust pace driven by
consumption and lower energy prices. Saxo Bank expects the US economy to grow around
3% in 2015.
- Outlook for the euro area remains challenging, with structural reforms
remaining sporadic while the private sector continues to pursue deleveraging,
suppressing both growth and inflation. Saxo Bank expects the euro area economy to grow
by 1% in 2015.
- The UK economy will grow by 2.5% in 2015, driven by strong private sector
growth and supportive government policies, with the main downside being a material
slowdown in the housing sector.
- Saxo Bank remains sceptical of the impact on the real economy of China's
central bank efforts to arrest the decline in growth through easing policies. The
bank's forecast for Chinese growth in 2015 is a below consensus 6.7%.

Despite the relatively low growth rate in the eurozone in 2015,
Saxo Bank predicts that Club Med and Eastern European member
countries will lead growth in 2015, as comparative gains enjoyed by
the likes of Germany come to an end and low unit labour costs in the
periphery drive growth.

"The upshot of this is that Europe's economy will finally
transform itself to one fuelled by small, innovative and agile
companies. This is excellent news for Europe's future." adds
Jakobsen.

FX

Saxo Bank predicts that Q1 could see the US dollar strengthen
further, but warns to expect an uneven path as leveraged traders are
already heavily long on US dollar and significant risks to that view
as the year wears on if asset markets destabilize on the anticipated
withdrawal of Fed liquidity. Further afield, economic and political
tensions between China and Japan over Japan's radical monetary policy
and JPY weakening could lead to a fresh Asian currency war.

Equities

Saxo Bank expects Spanish equities to outperform global equity
markets in Q1 2015, boosted by the inevitable easing policies pursued
by the European Central Bank, as inflation runs low and economic
growth is slow. On the other hand, the Chinese equity market remains
overheated and is due for a correction, while the oil and energy
slump will cast a long shadow over Russian equities too.

Commodities

Rising supply at a time of weak demand growth and a stronger
dollar will keep a raft of key commodities under pressure at the