Baidu.com - NASDAQ: BIDU crashed - dieses Jahr noch unter 30 US Dollar? (Seite 153)

[mann337]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.501.962 von Karlll am 11.05.10 18:45:33

jaja so isses
machst das richtig

ich schlage mich jetze mit der suntech power rum

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.501.897 von mann337 am 11.05.10 18:36:36

@ mann,

wo bist Du denn noch investiert?

Ich habe mein Depot voll auf Elektroauto ausgerichtet, nur ein anderer Titel ist mit Baidu drinnen.

BYD das Auto, ROC das Lithium, PPO die Separatoren für die Batterien.

Einen Batteriehersteller habe ich nicht, und zwar bewußt. Dort gibt
es so viele, und ich vermag nicht zu sagen welcher sich am Ende
profitabel am Markt behauptet.

Da habe ich mich lieb er an "Hacke und Schaufel"-Unternehmen gehalten, denn die waren in jedem Fall die Gewinner, war schon nach
dem Goldrush so.

[mann337]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.501.851 von Karlll am 11.05.10 18:32:14

ja baidu und byd werden noch viel teurer werden in zukunft

die anderen sind bestimmt auch nicht übel

[Karlll]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.501.773 von mann337 am 11.05.10 18:22:22

@ mann,

habe zu 98 Euronen gekauft und sie bei der AAB ins Zusatzdepot gelegt, damit ich sie eindeutig als Altbestand separiert habe.

Und nun befinden sie sich dort zusammen mit BYD und beide warten
auf noch bessere Tage. Nur die beiden Werte hatte ich noch in
09 gekauft.

PPO und ROC habe ich erst im April 2010 gekauft. Ich bin es aber auch
nicht gereut.

[mann337]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 39.501.724 von Karlll am 11.05.10 18:17:25

biste hier noch drinnen?
und seit wann ungefähr?


ich bin grade bei suntech power drinnen, eine katastrophe is das

[Karlll]

Hätte nicht gedacht, daß es heute nochmal aufwärts geht.

Dachte mir, wenn der Split vollführt wird, daß es dann einen Tag
vorher abwärts geht.

Nun bin ich natürlich kreuzgespannt, wie sich morgen die Splitkurse
stellen.

Karlll

[Karlll]

11.05.2010 07:14
CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT INFORMATION - 12.05.2010 - 1

FOLGENDE WERTPAPIERE WERDEN AM 11.05.2010 CUM KAPITALMASSNAHME UND AM
12.05.2010 EX KAPITALMASSNAHME GEHANDELT.
THE FOLLOWING SHARES ARE TRADED CUM CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT ON 11.05.2010
AND EX CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT ON 12.05.2010.

INSTR ISIN INSTRUMENT NAME
46T AU000000GPT8 GPT GROUP UNITS
SDRC FR0010411983 SCOR SE EO 7,8769723
OMU GB0007389926 OLD MUTUAL PLC LS-,10
WHF4 GB00B1KJJ408 WHITBREAD LS -,76797385
UNI3 NL0000009355 UNILEVER CVA EO -,16
3KF NO0010395973 INFRATEK ASA NK 5
3HJ SG1W27938677 LIPPO-MAPLETR.IND.RET.TR.
B1C US0567521085 BAIDU INC.A ADR DL-,00005


© 2010 Xetra Newsboard

[Karlll]

Eigentlich ist so ein Split ja eine schöne Sache, und es wird in der
Ansehung auch meist mit steigenden Kursen bedacht.

Aber irgendwie were ich das Gefühl nicht los, das jetzt, wo der Split
vor der Haustür steht etliche Investoren vielleicht erstmal in Cash
umschwenken.

Mal schaun, ob das Bauchgefühl rechtens ist, oder trügt.

Gruß
Karlll

[Karlll]

EARNINGS INSIGHT: Strong Baidu Q1 Earnings Show that Google’s Departure from China Certainly didn’t Hurt
Posted: May 5th,2010 | By: doug.herman

Chinese FlagStocks IconLeading Chinese search engine, Baidu, Inc. ((ADR) NASDAQ: BIDU), announced last week its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2010. The big news that is making the rounds is how substantial the company’s revenue gains have been as a result of the departure of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) from the mainland Chinese market. Baidu has really been successful at managing through a bunch of potential crises including the initial lukewarm expectations of its new Phoenix Nest advertising platform which has turned out be very successful and the departure of several senior executives at the start of the year. While the Google imbroglio has certainly given the company a lot of cover, nothing should be taken away from its success in handling a very fluid environment in China.

Key financial highlights for Q1 2010 include:

* Total revenues in the first quarter of 2010 grew 59.6% Year-over-Year (YoY) to RMB1.294 billion ($189.6 million),
* Operating profit in the first quarter of 2010 grew an astounding 167.4% YoY to RMB530.8 million ($77.8 million), and
* Net income in the first quarter of 2010 grew 165.3% YoY to RMB480.5 million ($70.4 million).

“We delivered a quarter of record revenue and strong profitability despite the usual seasonality associated with the Chinese New Year holiday. In particular, Phoenix Nest’s performance continued to exceed our expectations as customers increasingly appreciate the new platform’s advanced tools and superior return on investment. Looking ahead, we will continue to innovate and educate Chinese companies about the benefits of search engine marketing with Baidu.”

– Robin Li, CEO, Baidu.

Key operating highlights for Q1 2010 include:

* The company surprisingly lost active online marketing customers in Q1, dropping .9% QoQ from 223,000 to 221,000 but increasing 19.5% YoY,
* Despite the small contraction in its customer base the company succeeded in driving higher revenues with a higher average revenue per user (ARPU). Baidu’s ARPU grew 34.1% YoY and 3.5% QoQ to RMB5,900 ($864),
* Traffic acquisition costs (TAC) of RMB171.3 million ($25.1 million) accounted for 13.2% of total revenues compared to 15.3% in the year earlier period and 16.0% in the previous quarter.

Some highlights from the company’s April 28 conference call (transcribed on SeekingAlpha.com) include:

* Advertising: The company completed its migration from its old advertising platform to its new Phoenix Nest on December 1 of last year and have been using the new system to acquire new customers and increase average revenue per user. According to Robin Li, “customers appreciate Phoenix Nest’s higher quality, more relevant paid links and wider keyword coverage [and]…can now purchase a greater number of keywords with higher click-through rate over a wider range of queries…We believe customers are allocating a larger portion of their overall online marketing budget to us.”

Large advertisers have been most adept at utilizing the new Phoenix Nest ad system and are therefore benefiting most and increasing their spending more. Smaller advertisers on the so-called “long tail” of the company spectrum are still adjusting to the steep learning curve of the new program and therefore are not yet expected to fully embrace it with greater spending.

* E-Commerce: The company is beginning to see online b2c retail as a driver of search traffic. Spending on Baidu’s platform from e-commerce companies grew over 100% compared to the previous year. Baidu is also looking to monetize the increase in e-commerce traffic directly by launching its own retail website, RakuBai, a joint venture with Japanese e-commerce company Rakuten. The new venture is planned to launch in Q3.

* Baidu Union: The company continues to improve the quality of manage and optimize its policies related to customer traffic from Baidu Union members. The program is modeled on Google’s AdSense and allows Baidu search boxes and paid search ads to appear on the websites of a network of third party publishers. Changes to the program have helped improve the quality of search traffic from Union member websites while lowering Baidu’s traffic acquisition costs. According to Li “Union revenue growth has been growing faster than organic revenue in the past quarter.”

* Google: Despite the phenomenal growth story for Baidu in Q1 the company was hesitant to attribute too much of the success to the so-called “semi-exit of Google” from China. Robin Li reiterated that Baidu has always been the clear market leader but reminded participants that the search market is still in its early stages so well executed of business strategy is a better determinant for who will succeed in the marketplace. He claims that Baidu’s successful transition to Phoneix Nest is a more suitable example of the company ensuring its continued growth than any change within the competitive landscape.

After its earnings announcement last week Baidu’s American depositary shares got a tremendous 14.2% bump to close at US$709.87 but have since retreated to US$693.00, still over 11% higher than its pre-earnings release share price.

The company’s CFO provided aggressive revenue guidance for Q2 2010.

“Now let me provide you our top line guidance for the second quarter 2010. We currently expect total revenue for the second quarter 2010 to be between RMB1.83 billion and RMB1.87 billion which would represent 67 to 70% year-over-year growth. This forecast reflects Baidu’s current and preliminary view which is subject to change.”

– Jennifer Li, CFO, Baidu.

Related Digital East Asia posts include:

* Baidu Earnings Release Shows 48% Growth In Net Income; Phoenix Nest Transition Going Better Than Expected – February 10th, 2010
* Baidu and Japanese Partner to Launch Online Mall for the Chinese People – January 29th, 2010
* Baidu Has Cracks In Its Management As Google Mulls Departure From China – January 25th, 2010
* In Game of Chinese Chicken, Google May Lose But China May Win – January 20th, 2010
* Google Makes Stunning Announcement That It May Withdraw From China and Shutter Google.cn – January 13th, 2010
*
* The Baidu “Phoenix Nest” Ad System Rises; Now Will Revenues Follow? – December 8th, 2009
* Baidu’s Q4 Guidance Surprises Market; New “Phoenix Nest” Ad System to Fully Replace Bid Ranking by Dec 1 – October 27th, 2009
* Baidu’s New Ad Program Has Signed Up 40% of Its Customers – August 20th, 2009

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[Karlll]

Und hier mögen auch mal die kritischen Stimmen zu Wort kommen:



Baidu May Be Capped on Growth Concerns
Jake Lynch
05/04/10 - 01:00 AM EDT

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Baidu(BIDU) was downgraded to "underperform" by Credit Suisse(CS) after the company's stock tripled during the past year.

No, Credit Suisse isn't crazy. Baidu is a fundamentally sound company, but its stock is overpriced. The slightest misstep could spur a sell-off.

The exit of Google(GOOG) from the Chinese search-engine market is a catalyst for Baidu, which controls more than 60% of the market. (First-quarter earnings, released last week, showed a profit increase of 165%. Revenue rose 60%.) The Chinese search market is expected to grow rapidly as mainland Internet penetration is less than 30%. By comparison, Internet penetration in the U.S. is approaching 70%. Even so, China already boasts significantly more Internet users than the U.S. due to its 1.3 billion population.

Considering Google's exit and Baidu's willingness to comply with censorship mandates, it seems that a purchase of Baidu shares is a no-brainer. After all, the company has increased revenue and profit 79% annually, on average, since 2007. Return on equity, a key measure of profitability, is equally impressive. The first-quarter tally hit 34%, beating the Internet software and services industry average of 20%.

However, there is risk in putting too much weight in historical performance. After all, Baidu's growth is directly linked to Internet penetration. The company's recent escalation is attributable to exogenous factors. As penetration widened from 10% to 20%, Baidu effortlessly doubled in size. And as penetration moves from 20% to 40%, which is currently occurring, Baidu will again double in size.

But how much exponential growth does Baidu have left? The slightest hint of a cap on expansion will cause so-called growth investors to dump its stock. That risk lingers on the horizon, yet investors are currently pricing Baidu as though the company will enlarge ad infinitum. Its shares sell for a price-to-book ratio of 31 and a price-to-sales ratio of 33, 449% and 351% premiums to Internet peer averages.

Many investors dismiss the "overpriced" argument. The reasoning: Baidu's price-to-projected-earnings ratio, the most commonly viewed valuation measure, is high, but that's only because sell-side analysts consistently low-ball earnings projections. As a result, the denominator in the P/E is too low and, consequently, Baidu appears more expensive than it actually is. These are dangerous assumptions to make.

Dissecting the stock's PEG ratio is a sobering process. The PEG ratio is calculated by taking the stock's P/E, its price divided by trailing earnings, and dividing that figure by its projected long-term growth rate. Even assuming that Baidu can increase earnings at a generous rate of 55% annually, its stock is overpriced, trading at a 67% premium to fair value and a 99% premium to the industry average.

Baidu has returned 78%, annually, since 2007. Even in light of yesterday's downgrade by Credit Suisse, Baidu rose 2.9%. Sell-side analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on Baidu, with 17, or 71%, rating its shares "buy", six rating them "hold" and one ranking them "sell." RBC(RY) offers a price target of $954, leaving a potential 34% return. JPMorgan(JPM) predicts the stock will hit $850.

The lone dissenter, Credit Suisse, sees Baidu shares falling 27% to $519. In the short-term, Credit Suisse will play the role of out-of-touch contrarian, but over a longer timeframe, its recommendation could prove prescient. Buy-and-hold investors are advised to heed the call before jumping on the Baidu bandwagon.

-- Reported by Jake Lynch in Boston.