Arianne Phosphate - D'Arianne Phosphate / DAN JE9 (Seite 8)
eröffnet am 26.10.13 13:20:20 von
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ID: 1.187.683
ID: 1.187.683
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ISIN: CA04035D1024 · WKN: A1W18D
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| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 9,8360 | +17,66 | |
| 1,0950 | +16,00 | |
| 2,4000 | +14,83 | |
| 552,55 | +13,76 | |
| 33,17 | +13,52 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 1,4000 | -7,89 | |
| 185,00 | -9,76 | |
| 0,6700 | -14,92 | |
| 12,000 | -25,00 | |
| 46,24 | -98,00 |
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.049.425 von BelaDavid am 31.05.17 13:10:18PS Was haltet Ihr von CTN.V, Centurion Min., die Teile SA's mit gypsum beliefern wollen?
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 55.020.405 von M@trix am 26.05.17 09:27:50Ich beobachte diesen Wert schon seit geraumer Zeit, da in einem attraktiven Sektor tätig. Aber die 1.2bio CAPEX schreckte mich einfach ab bisher. Was, wenn ein Crash, eine globale Krise ihr Stell-dich-ein geben? Ist dann noch jemand daran interessiert, diese Last zu stemmen?
Und dennoch werde ich früher oder später in diesem Wert sein...
Und dennoch werde ich früher oder später in diesem Wert sein...
Meldungen wie diese sollten dazu beitragen, dass Hersteller wie Agrium doch verstärkt nach lokaleren Bezugsquellen such:
Canada-bound phosphate shipment from Western Sahara detained in Panama
The Canadian Press The Canadian PressMay 18, 2017
CALGARY — A ship carrying phosphate rock from Africa's Western Sahara to be used to make fertilizer at a central Alberta plant has been detained in Panama, Agrium Inc. says.
The Calgary-based company (TSX:AGU) is working with the ship owner, Danish Ultrabulk A/S, to get the shipment moving again, said Todd Coakwell, Agrium's director of investor relations.
"We're working through this. We don't see this as being something that's really going to interrupt us with our production at this time," he said Thursday.
Agrium's Redwater plant northeast of Edmonton has sufficient inventory to continue to process it into one of three key nutrients used in several agricultural fertilizers, he said.
The ship is the second to be impounded by court order this month in connection with a dispute over the Western Sahara, a territory controlled by Morocco but claimed by the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic or SADR. Earlier, a ship bound for New Zealand was detained in South Africa.
SADR claims the shipments have been illegally mined by an occupying government.
Coakwell says an "independent assessment" done for Agrium in 2016 concluded continued purchases from the Moroccan government-owned phosphate mining company would not contribute to negative human rights outcomes in the Western Sahara.
He added it would be hard for Agrium to replace its supplier if shipping delays continue.
"You've only got so many places globally that you can source that rock from and, in a short-term period, to be able to get a new contract, new suppliers, that would be difficult to do," he said.
Coakwell said he could not confirm a report that the ship contains 55,000 tonnes of phosphate rock because that would violate confidentiality terms of its supply contract.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-bound-phosphate-shi…
Canada-bound phosphate shipment from Western Sahara detained in Panama
The Canadian Press The Canadian PressMay 18, 2017
CALGARY — A ship carrying phosphate rock from Africa's Western Sahara to be used to make fertilizer at a central Alberta plant has been detained in Panama, Agrium Inc. says.
The Calgary-based company (TSX:AGU) is working with the ship owner, Danish Ultrabulk A/S, to get the shipment moving again, said Todd Coakwell, Agrium's director of investor relations.
"We're working through this. We don't see this as being something that's really going to interrupt us with our production at this time," he said Thursday.
Agrium's Redwater plant northeast of Edmonton has sufficient inventory to continue to process it into one of three key nutrients used in several agricultural fertilizers, he said.
The ship is the second to be impounded by court order this month in connection with a dispute over the Western Sahara, a territory controlled by Morocco but claimed by the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic or SADR. Earlier, a ship bound for New Zealand was detained in South Africa.
SADR claims the shipments have been illegally mined by an occupying government.
Coakwell says an "independent assessment" done for Agrium in 2016 concluded continued purchases from the Moroccan government-owned phosphate mining company would not contribute to negative human rights outcomes in the Western Sahara.
He added it would be hard for Agrium to replace its supplier if shipping delays continue.
"You've only got so many places globally that you can source that rock from and, in a short-term period, to be able to get a new contract, new suppliers, that would be difficult to do," he said.
Coakwell said he could not confirm a report that the ship contains 55,000 tonnes of phosphate rock because that would violate confidentiality terms of its supply contract.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-bound-phosphate-shi…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.866.839 von M@trix am 04.05.17 18:06:03Coole Story - i´m in!
Lesenswert:
Why 2017 could be a BIG year for Arianne Phosphate
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2017/05/03/why-2017-…
Das ist ziemlich genau das, was ich oben geschrieben habe:
"At this point in time there is little left for management to do other than seek to monetize the project either by moving the project toward production on its own or attracting a competitive bid from any number of global fertilizer companies that have a need for this world-class asset. Some of the potential suitors for the Lac à Paul Phosphate Deposit are thought to be Agrium, Potash Corp., the Mosaic Company, or, any other number of large fertilizer companies given the economic advantages of vertical integration and their current need to purchase phosphate from other sources.
Short of a takeout from one of those major fertilizer companies or potentially from foreign buyers (India is the world’s largest importer of phosphate), Arianne will need to push the project forward on its own. No doubt one reason Arianne’s share price is not more reflective of the intrinsic value of its Lac à Paul Project is because its market cap of less than C$100 million pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion CAPEX that will be needed to get this gigantic project into production. However, following are some factors that should make it possible for Arianne to move forward on its own if there is not a major company buyer. [...]
In talking to Brian this past week, he noted that historically, once the market realizes that a single project company like Arianne has definitive project financing in place they generally sell at 1 times first year EBITDA. For Arianne that means a market cap of around C$300million or more than triple the company’s current market cap. However, that would be far less than the 8% discounted NPV, which would still be less than 16%. Brian Ostroff’s hedge fund became involved as a major investor in Arianne five years ago before it was fully permitted, before the metallurgy was known, and before a solid picture of its economics were known. The project has been largely de-risked, yet it is selling at a small fraction of its NPV. [...]
I can’t promise you this stock will explode off the launch pad this week as Camino Minerals did last week. But I’m believing that these shares are destined for a significant move—by that I’m suggesting a double, triple, or more before the end of 2017. No guarantees in this business. But that’s the way I see it and why I made sure I had a few of these shares in my portfolio."
Why 2017 could be a BIG year for Arianne Phosphate
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2017/05/03/why-2017-…
Das ist ziemlich genau das, was ich oben geschrieben habe:
"At this point in time there is little left for management to do other than seek to monetize the project either by moving the project toward production on its own or attracting a competitive bid from any number of global fertilizer companies that have a need for this world-class asset. Some of the potential suitors for the Lac à Paul Phosphate Deposit are thought to be Agrium, Potash Corp., the Mosaic Company, or, any other number of large fertilizer companies given the economic advantages of vertical integration and their current need to purchase phosphate from other sources.
Short of a takeout from one of those major fertilizer companies or potentially from foreign buyers (India is the world’s largest importer of phosphate), Arianne will need to push the project forward on its own. No doubt one reason Arianne’s share price is not more reflective of the intrinsic value of its Lac à Paul Project is because its market cap of less than C$100 million pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion CAPEX that will be needed to get this gigantic project into production. However, following are some factors that should make it possible for Arianne to move forward on its own if there is not a major company buyer. [...]
In talking to Brian this past week, he noted that historically, once the market realizes that a single project company like Arianne has definitive project financing in place they generally sell at 1 times first year EBITDA. For Arianne that means a market cap of around C$300million or more than triple the company’s current market cap. However, that would be far less than the 8% discounted NPV, which would still be less than 16%. Brian Ostroff’s hedge fund became involved as a major investor in Arianne five years ago before it was fully permitted, before the metallurgy was known, and before a solid picture of its economics were known. The project has been largely de-risked, yet it is selling at a small fraction of its NPV. [...]
I can’t promise you this stock will explode off the launch pad this week as Camino Minerals did last week. But I’m believing that these shares are destined for a significant move—by that I’m suggesting a double, triple, or more before the end of 2017. No guarantees in this business. But that’s the way I see it and why I made sure I had a few of these shares in my portfolio."
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.853.297 von M@trix am 03.05.17 11:16:57Hallo Matrix,
berechtigte Kritik.
Ich bin hier nur mit einer "Spielgeldposition" drin. Ich investiere sonst eher in deutsche Nebenwerte und einige ausgewählte Positionen. Da lohnt sich eine umfassende Recherche nicht. Danke aber für die zusammenfassenden Aussagen.
Gruß Andrija
berechtigte Kritik.
Ich bin hier nur mit einer "Spielgeldposition" drin. Ich investiere sonst eher in deutsche Nebenwerte und einige ausgewählte Positionen. Da lohnt sich eine umfassende Recherche nicht. Danke aber für die zusammenfassenden Aussagen.Gruß Andrija
Hallo Andrija,
hmmm... du solltest doch ein bisschen mehr recherchieren, bevor du investierst.
Arianne muss das Projekt erst mal finanzieren können (wir sprechen hier von einer Investitiondsumme >1,2 Mrd. USD!!), dann muss die Anlage gebaut werden. Das kann durchaus noch 2-3 Jahre dauern. Da dann i.d.R. noch eine Test-Phase folgt, kann man m.E. frühestens ab Ende 2020 mit ersten Zahlen rechnen.
ABER: die Börse nimmt i.d.R. Entwicklungen vorweg. WENN sie die Finanzierung hinbekommen, gehe ich von einer unmittelbaren Neubewertung der Aktie aus. Wahrscheinlicher erscheint mir aber ohnehin eine Übernahme durch einen der Branchengrößen.
M@trix
hmmm... du solltest doch ein bisschen mehr recherchieren, bevor du investierst.
Arianne muss das Projekt erst mal finanzieren können (wir sprechen hier von einer Investitiondsumme >1,2 Mrd. USD!!), dann muss die Anlage gebaut werden. Das kann durchaus noch 2-3 Jahre dauern. Da dann i.d.R. noch eine Test-Phase folgt, kann man m.E. frühestens ab Ende 2020 mit ersten Zahlen rechnen.
ABER: die Börse nimmt i.d.R. Entwicklungen vorweg. WENN sie die Finanzierung hinbekommen, gehe ich von einer unmittelbaren Neubewertung der Aktie aus. Wahrscheinlicher erscheint mir aber ohnehin eine Übernahme durch einen der Branchengrößen.
M@trix
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 54.848.248 von M@trix am 02.05.17 17:47:00Bin mit einer kleinen Position drin.
Haben die eine Zeitplanung, ab wann angeblich die 300 Mio. fließen sollen? Hast Du eine Einschätzung?
Haben die eine Zeitplanung, ab wann angeblich die 300 Mio. fließen sollen? Hast Du eine Einschätzung?
Arianne Phosphate: an emerging opportunity in fertilizer stocks
[...]
Brian Ostroff: [...] I do represent a very large shareholder and I am a large shareholder. I think the path forward is to really try and get the maximum value for the company’s shareholders. I think that there's three paths forward here. We either finish up getting the last pieces of financing and we stick the shovel in the ground, and the next thing we know is we own a company that even at today's phosphate prices should gross about $300 million a year in gross profits.
Gerardo Del Real: That's per year?
Brian Ostroff: Per year, yes. Or, this becomes one of those projects that becomes integrated. As the environment has gotten better, maybe one of the larger fertilizer guys says, "This is something that I want to be part of or I want to own." Lastly of course there's the ability of joint venturing. With all the M&A activity that's been going on, I think that there are a bunch of assets up for grabs and the ability to maybe combine some of those assets today exists.
What I believe is whether it's path one, path two, or path three, we shouldn't be at 5% of NPV. I don't know which path is going to play out but I know that whichever one is best for shareholders is what I would like to see happen. But A, B, or C, I think investors today would be looking at a pretty solid return on their investment.
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2017/04/20/arianne-p…
Bei 300 Mio. $ Bruttoergebnis p.a. kann man sich selbst ausrechnen, wie das Unternehmen mal bewertet sein könnte (fair erscheinen mir 3-4 Mrd. $ - das ist also über 45-60 mal der aktuelle Börsenwert). Da natürlich noch EINIGES an Verwässerung für die Finanzierung zu erwarten ist relativiert sich das zwar - aber das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis ist sehr gut. Alles was man braucht ist Geduld.
Ich denke, das Zeitfenster hier schließt sich allmählich. Sobald ich entsprechende Mittel habe, werde ich "den Fuß in die Tür stellen".
M@trix
[...]
Brian Ostroff: [...] I do represent a very large shareholder and I am a large shareholder. I think the path forward is to really try and get the maximum value for the company’s shareholders. I think that there's three paths forward here. We either finish up getting the last pieces of financing and we stick the shovel in the ground, and the next thing we know is we own a company that even at today's phosphate prices should gross about $300 million a year in gross profits.
Gerardo Del Real: That's per year?
Brian Ostroff: Per year, yes. Or, this becomes one of those projects that becomes integrated. As the environment has gotten better, maybe one of the larger fertilizer guys says, "This is something that I want to be part of or I want to own." Lastly of course there's the ability of joint venturing. With all the M&A activity that's been going on, I think that there are a bunch of assets up for grabs and the ability to maybe combine some of those assets today exists.
What I believe is whether it's path one, path two, or path three, we shouldn't be at 5% of NPV. I don't know which path is going to play out but I know that whichever one is best for shareholders is what I would like to see happen. But A, B, or C, I think investors today would be looking at a pretty solid return on their investment.
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2017/04/20/arianne-p…
Bei 300 Mio. $ Bruttoergebnis p.a. kann man sich selbst ausrechnen, wie das Unternehmen mal bewertet sein könnte (fair erscheinen mir 3-4 Mrd. $ - das ist also über 45-60 mal der aktuelle Börsenwert). Da natürlich noch EINIGES an Verwässerung für die Finanzierung zu erwarten ist relativiert sich das zwar - aber das Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis ist sehr gut. Alles was man braucht ist Geduld.
Ich denke, das Zeitfenster hier schließt sich allmählich. Sobald ich entsprechende Mittel habe, werde ich "den Fuß in die Tür stellen".
M@trix
Arianne bin ich kurz davor einzusteigen. Hier geht es zack auf zack und ich denke, sie werden die Finanzierung schaffen. Letzteres ist absolut entscheidend.
Es wird natürlich dann noch zwei Jahre bis zur Produktion dauern, aber in dem aktuellen Börsenwert ist so gut wie nichts eingepreist.
M@trix
Es wird natürlich dann noch zwei Jahre bis zur Produktion dauern, aber in dem aktuellen Börsenwert ist so gut wie nichts eingepreist.
M@trix
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