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When the first Western oil explorers arrived on the dusty streets of FT London
Erbil, the Kurdish capital of northern Iraq, shortly after the 2003 war, there were many who declared that finding oil in this rugged mountain region would be a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.
The region was one of a diminishing number in the world that held huge geological promise but for political reasons had barely been touched by the oil industry. If the fish in a barrel analogy may have bordered on hyperbole, it has not turned out to be wildly inaccurate.
Of the eight wildcat exploration wells drilled in northern Iraq in 2009, half of them struck oil, a far higher success rate than in most established oil-producing regions.
And while not every company has hit the jackpot, discoveries by two UK-listed explorers — Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s giant Shaikan find and the Heritage Oil discovery at Miran West — ranked among the world’s top three finds in 2009. For lucky investors in these companies who were willing to brave the risks early, it has been quite a ride.
Now the story appears to be entering a new phase. Last week, America’s Marathon Oil became the first of the big global oil majors to enter the region. Its acquisition of four exploration blocks north of Erbil is of huge significance. For years, friction between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government, which signed the initial exploration contracts, led the world’s top oil companies to shun the north so that they were not shut out of the auction for the even bigger prizes of the country’s south.
Marathon’s move, however, could be the opening gambit in a frenzied consolidation play. “It is a big vote of confidence,” Richard Savage, oil analyst at Mirabaud, said.
Until now, Kurdish Iraq has been the playground of the independents, the chancers and mavericks of the oil industry willing to bet that contracts they had signed with Erbil would not be torn up by Baghdad. That danger now looks increasingly remote because the support of Iraq’s five million Kurds for the new Government in Baghdad is likely to be essential if it is to form a majority.
Some kind of resolution over oil contracts between Erbil and Baghdad is probably only a matter of time — an agreement that would pave the way for the start of exports.
Meanwhile, with other industry giants such as Chevron, Eni and Statoil all thought to be waiting in the wings, a string of deals could be in the offing as they scramble to gain a foothold.
For investors, it is a question of picking the best of the bunch.
Many of the companies with acreage in Kurdish Iraq are privately held or listed overseas, but among the three London-listed groups Gulf Keystone stands out as a clear favourite. Its discovery of up to three billion barrels of crude at Shaikan was made in a higher-quality reservoir than many its rivals — a fact recognised by the City last Monday, when a £109 million offering of 78 million new shares was oversubscribed.
Gulf Keystone, whose share price was languishing at just over 10p a year and a half ago, now stands at over 153p, which values the company at a cool £1 billion.
Cash from its share offering will be used to accelerate its drilling programme.
Although shares in Gulf Keystone no longer look cheap, the company is an obvious takeover candidate and it is worth noting that Marathon’s newly acquired Atrush block is located immediately north and adjacent to Shaikan, making it a tempting snack for the American group if it decides to bolster its presence in the area.
Of course, not all of the companies have been as fortunate. Shares in Sterling Energy, another UK-listed group, halved last month to 67½p after disappointing results from its Sangaw North well. All is not lost for Sterling, whose drilling programme is still under way, but the chances of a Shaikan-style discovery appear remote.
Meanwhile, Heritage Oil, the exploration company originally founded by the former mercenary Tony Buckingham, has stirred excitement with its 2009 find at Miran. Heritage has plenty of cash and plans to use some of it to boost its Iraqi presence.
Yet while there is little doubt over its size, there are concerns about the quality of the Miran reservoir, where the carbonate rock is less porous than at Shaikan. Instead, the oil is trapped in fractures between the rocks, raising questions about the ease with which it can be extracted.
Meanwhile, Heritage has other issues to contend with, not least of which is a tax dispute with the Ugandan Government over the proceeds from the sale of its stake in an earlier discovery there.
There is a silver lining to this. Heritage’s assets in Kurdish Iraq are being valued at a significantly lower level than Gulf Keystone’s. The company is trading at a 24 per cent discount to its net asset value, which is attractive relative to the sector trading at a 9 per cent discount.
For investors, northern Iraq is no place for the faint-hearted, but there are signs that conditions are improving — and the potential rewards are difficult to ignore.
Erbil, the Kurdish capital of northern Iraq, shortly after the 2003 war, there were many who declared that finding oil in this rugged mountain region would be a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.
The region was one of a diminishing number in the world that held huge geological promise but for political reasons had barely been touched by the oil industry. If the fish in a barrel analogy may have bordered on hyperbole, it has not turned out to be wildly inaccurate.
Of the eight wildcat exploration wells drilled in northern Iraq in 2009, half of them struck oil, a far higher success rate than in most established oil-producing regions.
And while not every company has hit the jackpot, discoveries by two UK-listed explorers — Gulf Keystone Petroleum’s giant Shaikan find and the Heritage Oil discovery at Miran West — ranked among the world’s top three finds in 2009. For lucky investors in these companies who were willing to brave the risks early, it has been quite a ride.
Now the story appears to be entering a new phase. Last week, America’s Marathon Oil became the first of the big global oil majors to enter the region. Its acquisition of four exploration blocks north of Erbil is of huge significance. For years, friction between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government, which signed the initial exploration contracts, led the world’s top oil companies to shun the north so that they were not shut out of the auction for the even bigger prizes of the country’s south.
Marathon’s move, however, could be the opening gambit in a frenzied consolidation play. “It is a big vote of confidence,” Richard Savage, oil analyst at Mirabaud, said.
Until now, Kurdish Iraq has been the playground of the independents, the chancers and mavericks of the oil industry willing to bet that contracts they had signed with Erbil would not be torn up by Baghdad. That danger now looks increasingly remote because the support of Iraq’s five million Kurds for the new Government in Baghdad is likely to be essential if it is to form a majority.
Some kind of resolution over oil contracts between Erbil and Baghdad is probably only a matter of time — an agreement that would pave the way for the start of exports.
Meanwhile, with other industry giants such as Chevron, Eni and Statoil all thought to be waiting in the wings, a string of deals could be in the offing as they scramble to gain a foothold.
For investors, it is a question of picking the best of the bunch.
Many of the companies with acreage in Kurdish Iraq are privately held or listed overseas, but among the three London-listed groups Gulf Keystone stands out as a clear favourite. Its discovery of up to three billion barrels of crude at Shaikan was made in a higher-quality reservoir than many its rivals — a fact recognised by the City last Monday, when a £109 million offering of 78 million new shares was oversubscribed.
Gulf Keystone, whose share price was languishing at just over 10p a year and a half ago, now stands at over 153p, which values the company at a cool £1 billion.
Cash from its share offering will be used to accelerate its drilling programme.
Although shares in Gulf Keystone no longer look cheap, the company is an obvious takeover candidate and it is worth noting that Marathon’s newly acquired Atrush block is located immediately north and adjacent to Shaikan, making it a tempting snack for the American group if it decides to bolster its presence in the area.
Of course, not all of the companies have been as fortunate. Shares in Sterling Energy, another UK-listed group, halved last month to 67½p after disappointing results from its Sangaw North well. All is not lost for Sterling, whose drilling programme is still under way, but the chances of a Shaikan-style discovery appear remote.
Meanwhile, Heritage Oil, the exploration company originally founded by the former mercenary Tony Buckingham, has stirred excitement with its 2009 find at Miran. Heritage has plenty of cash and plans to use some of it to boost its Iraqi presence.
Yet while there is little doubt over its size, there are concerns about the quality of the Miran reservoir, where the carbonate rock is less porous than at Shaikan. Instead, the oil is trapped in fractures between the rocks, raising questions about the ease with which it can be extracted.
Meanwhile, Heritage has other issues to contend with, not least of which is a tax dispute with the Ugandan Government over the proceeds from the sale of its stake in an earlier discovery there.
There is a silver lining to this. Heritage’s assets in Kurdish Iraq are being valued at a significantly lower level than Gulf Keystone’s. The company is trading at a 24 per cent discount to its net asset value, which is attractive relative to the sector trading at a 9 per cent discount.
For investors, northern Iraq is no place for the faint-hearted, but there are signs that conditions are improving — and the potential rewards are difficult to ignore.
Gulf Keystone : Off to the races
Date: 19 October 2010
Contributed by Fox-Davies Capital
By Fox-Davies Capital
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced it has successfully raised gross proceeds of GBP109,239,200 through an oversubscribed placing of 78,028,000 new Common Shares of US$ 0.01 each in the Company at a placing price of 140p per share in order to accelerate the Company's active drilling programme across its four blocks in Kurdistan, the net proceeds will primarily be applied towards contracting a third Gulf Keystone operated deep drilling rig, in addition to the Weatherford 842 and AOS Discoverer-1 rigs and ensuring three rigs are contracted under Gulf Keystone operatorship until the Shaikan Field is fully appraised, now expected by the en d of H1 2012. The Shaikan-5, Shaikan-6 and Shaikan-7 wells will now be added to the drilling programme in addition to the drilling of previously delayed Shaikan-2 and Shaikan-4 wells. The funds will also be affected to additional testing and production facilities in anticipation of success from current drilling of Sheikh Adi-1 and/or one or more of the Shaikan appraisal wells as well as Gulf Keystone's share of the first exploration well on the Ber Bahr block, and a further exploration well on Akri-Bijeel (Bekhme-1). It is intended that further rigs will be contracted by the respective Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel operators for future wells on these production sharing contracts. This additional funding, along with anticipated income from test production, will significantly strengthen the Company's financial position and will allow flexibility in the work programme. As such, the Company will have the opportunity to take advantage of any appropriate opportunities to further add value to its working interest position in Kurdistan. The Placing Shares will represent 11.54% of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company. The total number of common shares in issue following completion of the placing, and the total number of voting rights, will be 754,243,161.
Comment
This is a very decisive and opportunistic move by the Company and is fully in-line with its strategy of proving up as much as possible of the potential resources in order to maximise value. The Company is now fully funded to fully appraise the Shaikan/ Sheikh Abi/Ber Bahr structural complex as well as testing most of the Akri Bijeel licence potential, providing certainty to investors that exploration will be carried out whatever financial market conditions. The issue price of 140p represents good value versus our target price of 200p and also versus the upside potential based on a multiple of current risked resources estimates.
The drilling programme will provide a sustained news flow over the next few months and plenty of opportunities to hopefully increase our forecasts. We see the forthcoming exploration programme as the most exciting of the next 12 months.
Recommendation
We re-iterate our Buy rating and price target of 200p.
Das Placment wurde vom Markt sehr positiv aufgenommen - gestern fast 10% plus - das GKP Managment will mit dem Geld das Tempo erhöhen und drillen, drillen, drillen.
Wenn man bedenkt welches Potential die Felder Shaikan, Sheik Adi und Ber Bahr aufweisen könnten - dann ....
Zudem stehen eine Flut an wichtigen news an - (well-test production 10.000bpd), (Drillergebnisse) usw.
but --- DYOR
Date: 19 October 2010
Contributed by Fox-Davies Capital
By Fox-Davies Capital
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. announced it has successfully raised gross proceeds of GBP109,239,200 through an oversubscribed placing of 78,028,000 new Common Shares of US$ 0.01 each in the Company at a placing price of 140p per share in order to accelerate the Company's active drilling programme across its four blocks in Kurdistan, the net proceeds will primarily be applied towards contracting a third Gulf Keystone operated deep drilling rig, in addition to the Weatherford 842 and AOS Discoverer-1 rigs and ensuring three rigs are contracted under Gulf Keystone operatorship until the Shaikan Field is fully appraised, now expected by the en d of H1 2012. The Shaikan-5, Shaikan-6 and Shaikan-7 wells will now be added to the drilling programme in addition to the drilling of previously delayed Shaikan-2 and Shaikan-4 wells. The funds will also be affected to additional testing and production facilities in anticipation of success from current drilling of Sheikh Adi-1 and/or one or more of the Shaikan appraisal wells as well as Gulf Keystone's share of the first exploration well on the Ber Bahr block, and a further exploration well on Akri-Bijeel (Bekhme-1). It is intended that further rigs will be contracted by the respective Ber Bahr and Akri-Bijeel operators for future wells on these production sharing contracts. This additional funding, along with anticipated income from test production, will significantly strengthen the Company's financial position and will allow flexibility in the work programme. As such, the Company will have the opportunity to take advantage of any appropriate opportunities to further add value to its working interest position in Kurdistan. The Placing Shares will represent 11.54% of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company. The total number of common shares in issue following completion of the placing, and the total number of voting rights, will be 754,243,161.
Comment
This is a very decisive and opportunistic move by the Company and is fully in-line with its strategy of proving up as much as possible of the potential resources in order to maximise value. The Company is now fully funded to fully appraise the Shaikan/ Sheikh Abi/Ber Bahr structural complex as well as testing most of the Akri Bijeel licence potential, providing certainty to investors that exploration will be carried out whatever financial market conditions. The issue price of 140p represents good value versus our target price of 200p and also versus the upside potential based on a multiple of current risked resources estimates.
The drilling programme will provide a sustained news flow over the next few months and plenty of opportunities to hopefully increase our forecasts. We see the forthcoming exploration programme as the most exciting of the next 12 months.
Recommendation
We re-iterate our Buy rating and price target of 200p.
Das Placment wurde vom Markt sehr positiv aufgenommen - gestern fast 10% plus - das GKP Managment will mit dem Geld das Tempo erhöhen und drillen, drillen, drillen.
Wenn man bedenkt welches Potential die Felder Shaikan, Sheik Adi und Ber Bahr aufweisen könnten - dann ....
Zudem stehen eine Flut an wichtigen news an - (well-test production 10.000bpd), (Drillergebnisse) usw.
but --- DYOR
Gulf Keystone raises $175m for Iraq project
By Christopher Thompson
Published: October 16 2010 01:41 | Last updated: October 16 2010 01:41
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, the Aim-quoted oil explorer, has raised $175m (£109m) to accelerate its Iraq-based drilling programme in a surprise share placement.
The placement, which has not yet been announced, was run by Mirabaud Securities and priced at 140p a share. Gulf Keystone’s shares closed at 143½p on Friday.
The money will be used for appraisal drilling on its showpiece Shaikan block as well as exploratory drilling on neighbouring concessions.
The company declined to comment on the matter.
Only last month Todd Kozel, chief executive, said the company was well-funded “through to summer of 2011”.
He said the company had $91.9m in cash after raising $189m from investors in the first half to fund drilling and exploration at its concessions in Kurdistan, northern Iraq.
Gulf Keystone, which has yet to turn a profit and has no proved reserves, said that its assets hold between 1.9bn and 7.4bn barrels of oil.
The company’s shares surged 850 per cent from August to October last year after the discovery of oil at Shaikan – helping Gulf Keystone attract a dedicated retail investor following and making it one of the most discussed shares on the UK’s online investment bulletin boards.
Despite management statements to the contrary, several analysts predicted that it would seek more funds this year.
Richard Nolan, an oil analyst at Daniel Stewart, said he was surprised by the placement.
“Clearly it’s a stunning development – this goes well beyond what we were originally talking about. They were saying we were fully funded and now they say they want this money, but that’s because they have a good story to tell,” said Mr Nolan.
The placement is one of several launched by the company this year.
In May, Gulf Keystone launched a $165m share issue to fund working capital requirements and to repay the Kurdish regional government after the default of its joint venture partner there.
That was after the company sold half its Iraqi assets to Etamic, a private investment fund based in the Middle East, in return for payment of 50 per cent of the development costs of Gulf Keystone’s prospective Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr projects, in July 2009.
Earlier this year Etamic defaulted on its first payment to Gulf Keystone, forcing it to raise another £16m in a stopgap share placing.
.Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com an
in anderen Threads wird das placment durchaus positiv aufgenommen -
By Christopher Thompson
Published: October 16 2010 01:41 | Last updated: October 16 2010 01:41
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, the Aim-quoted oil explorer, has raised $175m (£109m) to accelerate its Iraq-based drilling programme in a surprise share placement.
The placement, which has not yet been announced, was run by Mirabaud Securities and priced at 140p a share. Gulf Keystone’s shares closed at 143½p on Friday.
The money will be used for appraisal drilling on its showpiece Shaikan block as well as exploratory drilling on neighbouring concessions.
The company declined to comment on the matter.
Only last month Todd Kozel, chief executive, said the company was well-funded “through to summer of 2011”.
He said the company had $91.9m in cash after raising $189m from investors in the first half to fund drilling and exploration at its concessions in Kurdistan, northern Iraq.
Gulf Keystone, which has yet to turn a profit and has no proved reserves, said that its assets hold between 1.9bn and 7.4bn barrels of oil.
The company’s shares surged 850 per cent from August to October last year after the discovery of oil at Shaikan – helping Gulf Keystone attract a dedicated retail investor following and making it one of the most discussed shares on the UK’s online investment bulletin boards.
Despite management statements to the contrary, several analysts predicted that it would seek more funds this year.
Richard Nolan, an oil analyst at Daniel Stewart, said he was surprised by the placement.
“Clearly it’s a stunning development – this goes well beyond what we were originally talking about. They were saying we were fully funded and now they say they want this money, but that’s because they have a good story to tell,” said Mr Nolan.
The placement is one of several launched by the company this year.
In May, Gulf Keystone launched a $165m share issue to fund working capital requirements and to repay the Kurdish regional government after the default of its joint venture partner there.
That was after the company sold half its Iraqi assets to Etamic, a private investment fund based in the Middle East, in return for payment of 50 per cent of the development costs of Gulf Keystone’s prospective Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr projects, in July 2009.
Earlier this year Etamic defaulted on its first payment to Gulf Keystone, forcing it to raise another £16m in a stopgap share placing.
.Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com an
in anderen Threads wird das placment durchaus positiv aufgenommen -
heuta paar grossinvestoren einen winzig kleinen teil versilbert,
aaaaaber noch mit einem gehörigen anteil investiert
aaaaaber noch mit einem gehörigen anteil investiert
da fällt nix
und jede menge news voraus
und jede menge news voraus
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 40.176.481 von Coxos am 20.09.10 09:28:23
neue 
eingetroffen
GKP > 150 pence
eingetroffenGKP > 150 pence
Gulf Keystone Petroleum plots move to main market
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, the second largest company listed on the London Stock Exchange's (LSE) Alternative Investment Market (Aim), is plotting a move to the main market early next year.
By Rowena Mason
Published: 11:00PM BST 18 Sep 2010
Comment
The Sunday Telegraph understands that the Iraq-focused oil explorer intends to jump before it is pushed by the Aim authorities, as it has grown much larger than the market's usual members.
As a result, the board, chaired by Todd Kozel, is looking at moving to the LSE's Official List by the end of the first quarter of 2011, a move that would automatically propel it into the FTSE 250 index.
Index tracker funds typically buy around 10pc of a new
FTSE 250 constituent, leading to increased demand for the company's shares, which have proven to be particularly popular to date with retail investors.
Based on its Friday night closing price of 137p, Gulf Keystone has a market capitalisation of £720m, easily securing it a place in the FTSE 250, subject to it meeting the liquidity requirements imposed by the FTSE indices committee.
Data from TD Waterhouse shows that its shares – which have doubled in value over the last 12 months – are consistently in the top 10 most traded on the stock exchange.
Last week, Mr Kozel, Gulf Keystone's co-founder who earned $2.6m (£1.7m) last year, said the oil explorer may have to raise more funding before the year is out, even after raising $189m in the first six months of the year.
The company's fields are believed to hold between 1.9bn and 7.4bn barrels of oil and it hopes to increase production in Kurdistan to 8,000-10,000 barrels per day by the year end.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum, the second largest company listed on the London Stock Exchange's (LSE) Alternative Investment Market (Aim), is plotting a move to the main market early next year.
By Rowena Mason
Published: 11:00PM BST 18 Sep 2010
Comment
The Sunday Telegraph understands that the Iraq-focused oil explorer intends to jump before it is pushed by the Aim authorities, as it has grown much larger than the market's usual members.
As a result, the board, chaired by Todd Kozel, is looking at moving to the LSE's Official List by the end of the first quarter of 2011, a move that would automatically propel it into the FTSE 250 index.
Index tracker funds typically buy around 10pc of a new
FTSE 250 constituent, leading to increased demand for the company's shares, which have proven to be particularly popular to date with retail investors.
Based on its Friday night closing price of 137p, Gulf Keystone has a market capitalisation of £720m, easily securing it a place in the FTSE 250, subject to it meeting the liquidity requirements imposed by the FTSE indices committee.
Data from TD Waterhouse shows that its shares – which have doubled in value over the last 12 months – are consistently in the top 10 most traded on the stock exchange.
Last week, Mr Kozel, Gulf Keystone's co-founder who earned $2.6m (£1.7m) last year, said the oil explorer may have to raise more funding before the year is out, even after raising $189m in the first six months of the year.
The company's fields are believed to hold between 1.9bn and 7.4bn barrels of oil and it hopes to increase production in Kurdistan to 8,000-10,000 barrels per day by the year end.
aktuelle entwicklung bzgl regierungsbildung
...
The parliamentary speakership goes to the Kurdish alliance. They will be compensated for the loss of the office of the president with the highly significant ministry of oil
...
...
The parliamentary speakership goes to the Kurdish alliance. They will be compensated for the loss of the office of the president with the highly significant ministry of oil
...
korrekturen müssen sein
verkauft wird erst bei übernahme
verkauft wird erst bei übernahme
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