Bitcoin oder doch Shitcoin?! (Seite 4503)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 56.466.377 von SolarStar am 16.12.17 10:31:54
Da bist Du aber ganz schön auf dem Holzweg.
Banken machen aus 100 EUR, 10.000 EUR im Zuge der Giralgeldschöpfung. Und das ist nicht erst seit gestern so Einfach so, aus Luft. Du siehst also es läßt sich sehr gut aus Luft vermehren. 
Zitat von SolarStar: Trotz dem Wissen, dass sich Geld nicht aus Luft vermehren lässt, falk
Da bist Du aber ganz schön auf dem Holzweg.
Banken machen aus 100 EUR, 10.000 EUR im Zuge der Giralgeldschöpfung. Und das ist nicht erst seit gestern so
Einfach so, aus Luft. Du siehst also es läßt sich sehr gut aus Luft vermehren. 
Hat jemand eine Erklärung dafür dass der Bitcoin Kurs jeden Tag um 5.00 Uhr MEZ zu steigen beginnt. Zufall x Zufall = Manipulation
....fallen immer wieder viele auf den Bluff rein.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 56.466.248 von R-BgO am 16.12.17 10:13:48
"The ducks are quacking right now and the coin people, like their Wall Street investment banker predecessors, know that when the ducks are quacking, you must feed them.
How many coins and tokens will it take to do that? At what point do all the current and coming options overcome the current demand?
If you can invent more tokens and coins overnight, then the scarcity argument (there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins in circulation and 4 million of them are already lost forever) goes right out the window. Bulls would say “No, Bitcoin is the only one that matters.”
Tell that to the Ethereum folks, they ain’t having it. It’s Yankees vs Red Sox in crypto land."
=> Zurücklehnen, Popcorn essen und den Film genießen.
to drive home the point:
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/12/14/a-twist/"The ducks are quacking right now and the coin people, like their Wall Street investment banker predecessors, know that when the ducks are quacking, you must feed them.
How many coins and tokens will it take to do that? At what point do all the current and coming options overcome the current demand?
If you can invent more tokens and coins overnight, then the scarcity argument (there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins in circulation and 4 million of them are already lost forever) goes right out the window. Bulls would say “No, Bitcoin is the only one that matters.”
Tell that to the Ethereum folks, they ain’t having it. It’s Yankees vs Red Sox in crypto land."
=> Zurücklehnen, Popcorn essen und den Film genießen.
In der Fachliteratur gibt es viele Berichte von solchen Geldvermehrungs Schlaumeier. Am Schluss sitzt immer einer im Knast und der Anleger auf einem finanziellen Scherbenhaufen. Trotz dem Wissen, dass sich Geld nicht aus Luft vermehren lässt, falk
Trading Spotlight
Zu 99% wird fast jeden Tag um 5.00 Uhr mitteleuropäischer Zeit, der Kurs hochgezogen. Es gibt keine plausible Erklärung für diese Zufälligkeit. Und wirklich fast jeden Tag genau um 5.00 MEZ🙈🙉🙊
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 56.466.248 von R-BgO am 16.12.17 10:13:48
Auzüge:
"Let's put the pieces together. The first equation of asset pricing is that price = expected present value of dividends. Bitcoin has no cash dividends, and never will. So right off the bat we have a problem -- and a case that suggests how other assets might have value above and beyond their cash dividends.
Well, if the price is greater than zero, either people see some "dividend," some value in holding the asset, beyond its cash payments; equivalently they are willing to hold the asset despite a lower expected return going forward, or they think the price will keep going up forever, so that price appreciation alone provides a competitive return. The first two are called "convenience yield," the latter is a "rational bubble."
"Rational bubbles" are intriguing, but I think fundamentally flawed. If a price goes up forever, eventually the value of bitcoin must exceed all of US wealth, then all of world wealth, then all of interplanetary wealth, then all of the atoms in the universe. The "greater fool" or Ponzi scheme theory must break down at some point, or rely on an irrational belief in the next fool. The rational bubbles theory also does not account for the association of price surges with high volatility and high trading volume."
...
"Well, dollar bills have the same feature. They don't pay interest, and they don't pay dividends. By holding dollar bills, you are holding an asset whose fundamental value is zero, and whose expected return is demonstrably lower than that of, say, one-year treasuries. One year Treasuries are completely risk free, and over a year will give you about 1.5% more than holding dollar bills. This is a pure arbitrage opportunity, which isn't supposed to happen in financial markets!
It's pretty clear why you still hold some dollar bills, or their equivalent in non-interest-bearing accounts. They are more convenient when you want to buy things. Dollar bills have an obvious "convenience yield" that makes up for the 1.5% loss in financial rate of return."
...
"This is the obvious "convenience yield" of bitcoin -- the obvious reason some people are willing to hold bitcoin for some amount of time, even though they may know it's a terrible long-term investment. It certainly facilitates ransomware. It's great for laundering money. And it's great for avoiding capital controls -- getting money out of China, say. As with dollars there is a lot of bad in that, and a lot of good as well. (See Tyler Cowen on some parallel benefits of offshore investing.)
But good or bad is beside the point here. The point here is that there is a perfectly rational demand for bitcoin as it is an excellent way to avoid both the beneficial and destructive attempts of governments to control economic activity and to grab wealth -- even if people holding it know that it's a terrible long-term investment.
On top of this "fundamental" demand, we can add a "speculative" demand. Suppose you know or you think you know that bitcoin will go up some more before its inevitable crash. In order to speculate on bitcoin, you have to buy some bitcoin. I don't know if you can short bitcoin, but if you wanted to you would have to borrow some bitcoin and sell it, and in the process you would have to hold some bitcoin. So, as we also see in high-priced stocks, houses and tulips, high prices come with volatile prices (so there is money to be made on speculation), and large trading volumes. Someone speculating on bitcoin over a week cares little about its fundamental value. Even if you told him or her that bitcoin would crash to zero for sure in three years, that would make essentially no dent in their trading profits, as you can make so much money in a volatile market over a week, if you get on the right side of volatility.
Now to support a high price, you need restricted supply as well as demand. There are only so many bitcoins, as there are only so many gold bars, at least for now. But that will change. The Achilles' heel of bitcoin's long term value is that there is nothing to stop people from creating bitcoin substitutes -- there are already hundreds of other similar competitors. And there is nothing to stop people from creating private claims to bitcoin -- bitcoin futures -- to satisfy speculative demand. But all that takes time. And none of my demands were from people who want to hold bitcoin for very long. Ice cream is also a fast-depreciating asset, but people hold it for a while. In this view, however, Bitcoin remains a terrible buy-and-hold asset, especially for an investor who plans to pay taxes.
In sum, what's going on with Bitcoin seems to me like a perfectly "normal" phenomenon. Intersect a convenience yield and speculative demand with a temporarily limited supply, plus temporarily limited supply of substitutes, and limits on short-selling, and you get a price surge. It helps if there is a lot of asymmetric information or opinion to spur trading, and given the shady source of bitcoin demand -- no annual reports on how much the Russian mafia wants to move offshore next week -- that's plausible too."
same vein:
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.de/2017/11/bitcoin-and-bubble…Auzüge:
"Let's put the pieces together. The first equation of asset pricing is that price = expected present value of dividends. Bitcoin has no cash dividends, and never will. So right off the bat we have a problem -- and a case that suggests how other assets might have value above and beyond their cash dividends.
Well, if the price is greater than zero, either people see some "dividend," some value in holding the asset, beyond its cash payments; equivalently they are willing to hold the asset despite a lower expected return going forward, or they think the price will keep going up forever, so that price appreciation alone provides a competitive return. The first two are called "convenience yield," the latter is a "rational bubble."
"Rational bubbles" are intriguing, but I think fundamentally flawed. If a price goes up forever, eventually the value of bitcoin must exceed all of US wealth, then all of world wealth, then all of interplanetary wealth, then all of the atoms in the universe. The "greater fool" or Ponzi scheme theory must break down at some point, or rely on an irrational belief in the next fool. The rational bubbles theory also does not account for the association of price surges with high volatility and high trading volume."
...
"Well, dollar bills have the same feature. They don't pay interest, and they don't pay dividends. By holding dollar bills, you are holding an asset whose fundamental value is zero, and whose expected return is demonstrably lower than that of, say, one-year treasuries. One year Treasuries are completely risk free, and over a year will give you about 1.5% more than holding dollar bills. This is a pure arbitrage opportunity, which isn't supposed to happen in financial markets!
It's pretty clear why you still hold some dollar bills, or their equivalent in non-interest-bearing accounts. They are more convenient when you want to buy things. Dollar bills have an obvious "convenience yield" that makes up for the 1.5% loss in financial rate of return."
...
"This is the obvious "convenience yield" of bitcoin -- the obvious reason some people are willing to hold bitcoin for some amount of time, even though they may know it's a terrible long-term investment. It certainly facilitates ransomware. It's great for laundering money. And it's great for avoiding capital controls -- getting money out of China, say. As with dollars there is a lot of bad in that, and a lot of good as well. (See Tyler Cowen on some parallel benefits of offshore investing.)
But good or bad is beside the point here. The point here is that there is a perfectly rational demand for bitcoin as it is an excellent way to avoid both the beneficial and destructive attempts of governments to control economic activity and to grab wealth -- even if people holding it know that it's a terrible long-term investment.
On top of this "fundamental" demand, we can add a "speculative" demand. Suppose you know or you think you know that bitcoin will go up some more before its inevitable crash. In order to speculate on bitcoin, you have to buy some bitcoin. I don't know if you can short bitcoin, but if you wanted to you would have to borrow some bitcoin and sell it, and in the process you would have to hold some bitcoin. So, as we also see in high-priced stocks, houses and tulips, high prices come with volatile prices (so there is money to be made on speculation), and large trading volumes. Someone speculating on bitcoin over a week cares little about its fundamental value. Even if you told him or her that bitcoin would crash to zero for sure in three years, that would make essentially no dent in their trading profits, as you can make so much money in a volatile market over a week, if you get on the right side of volatility.
Now to support a high price, you need restricted supply as well as demand. There are only so many bitcoins, as there are only so many gold bars, at least for now. But that will change. The Achilles' heel of bitcoin's long term value is that there is nothing to stop people from creating bitcoin substitutes -- there are already hundreds of other similar competitors. And there is nothing to stop people from creating private claims to bitcoin -- bitcoin futures -- to satisfy speculative demand. But all that takes time. And none of my demands were from people who want to hold bitcoin for very long. Ice cream is also a fast-depreciating asset, but people hold it for a while. In this view, however, Bitcoin remains a terrible buy-and-hold asset, especially for an investor who plans to pay taxes.
In sum, what's going on with Bitcoin seems to me like a perfectly "normal" phenomenon. Intersect a convenience yield and speculative demand with a temporarily limited supply, plus temporarily limited supply of substitutes, and limits on short-selling, and you get a price surge. It helps if there is a lot of asymmetric information or opinion to spur trading, and given the shady source of bitcoin demand -- no annual reports on how much the Russian mafia wants to move offshore next week -- that's plausible too."
Es gib einen einfachen und unmissverständlichen Beweis, dass der Bitcoin manipulativ hochgekauft wird.
Aswath Damodaran’s Professor Take On Bitcoin In Under 370 Words
By Brad Cornell on December 14, 2017 12:51 pm in Economics
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/12/r-bitcoin-price-cash-flow/
Ok, I am breaking down to write something about Bitcoin. It seems that everyone I talk to has a question about it. The problem is that virtually everything I can think of about the subject has been said – usually many times. In my view, the best summary is the one provided by John Cochrane in his blog.
But there is one thing that has perhaps not received enough attention.
Imagine you walk into an office supply store to buy a ball point pen. You see two identical pens on the shelf. One costs $5 and the other costs $50. If you think that makes no sense you are applying the law of one price. The law of one price says that identical goods sold in the same market must sell at the same price.
There are currently about 160 cryptocurrencies and they trade at nothing like the same price. Bitcoin, currently at about $16,000, trades at a price up to 100 times that of its major competitors.
How do they differ?
Not in terms of payout – none of the cryptocurrencies offer any dividend or interest.
Not really in terms of their use as a medium of exchange – Bitcoin may have a tiny advantage here but none of the cryptocurrencies viably competes with the dollar.
Not in terms of the way they are organized or exchanged – all of them use blockchain technology.
Why then the big price difference?
All I can think of is that Bitcoin is a better vehicle for speculation. Because it is better known people think that other people will buy it at a higher future price. In other words, Bitcoin is a better bubble vehicle. Which suggests that Bitcoin’s price is a bubble in the first place.
One final thing. Some people say that Bitcoin’s current price, and higher future prices, are justified because the supply is limited. The supply of what? While it is true that there can be no more than 21 million Bitcoins, there is no limitation on cryptocurrencies. Saying the supply is limited is like saying the supply of Pentel pens is limited. Who cares if other suppliers are making identical pens.
My bottom line on Bitcoin – stay away.
By Brad Cornell on December 14, 2017 12:51 pm in Economics
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/12/r-bitcoin-price-cash-flow/
Ok, I am breaking down to write something about Bitcoin. It seems that everyone I talk to has a question about it. The problem is that virtually everything I can think of about the subject has been said – usually many times. In my view, the best summary is the one provided by John Cochrane in his blog.
But there is one thing that has perhaps not received enough attention.
Imagine you walk into an office supply store to buy a ball point pen. You see two identical pens on the shelf. One costs $5 and the other costs $50. If you think that makes no sense you are applying the law of one price. The law of one price says that identical goods sold in the same market must sell at the same price.
There are currently about 160 cryptocurrencies and they trade at nothing like the same price. Bitcoin, currently at about $16,000, trades at a price up to 100 times that of its major competitors.
How do they differ?
Not in terms of payout – none of the cryptocurrencies offer any dividend or interest.
Not really in terms of their use as a medium of exchange – Bitcoin may have a tiny advantage here but none of the cryptocurrencies viably competes with the dollar.
Not in terms of the way they are organized or exchanged – all of them use blockchain technology.
Why then the big price difference?
All I can think of is that Bitcoin is a better vehicle for speculation. Because it is better known people think that other people will buy it at a higher future price. In other words, Bitcoin is a better bubble vehicle. Which suggests that Bitcoin’s price is a bubble in the first place.
One final thing. Some people say that Bitcoin’s current price, and higher future prices, are justified because the supply is limited. The supply of what? While it is true that there can be no more than 21 million Bitcoins, there is no limitation on cryptocurrencies. Saying the supply is limited is like saying the supply of Pentel pens is limited. Who cares if other suppliers are making identical pens.
My bottom line on Bitcoin – stay away.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 56.465.552 von Keilfleckbarbe am 16.12.17 07:07:53
BitCoins zeigen aktuell klar die Fieberkurve unseres seit 14.08.1971 (Ende Bretton Woods) kaputten Finanzsystems.
Und wenn Janet Yellen sogar in der Zinserhöhungspressekonferenz vor BitCoins warnt, dann geht denen wirklich der Arsch auf Grundeis.-----
Aktuell ist die Bio Druckerpresseninflation bei BitCoins, Aktien, Anleihen und Immos zu sehen....................Mondpreise überall.................wobei BitCoins von allem am liquidesten sind......
Aber auch BitCoins haben keinen Wert-----nur eine Kaufkraft---und bezahlen damit ist sehr kompliziert wie ich mehrfach feststellen muste.
Meine These: Sobald dieses Gerüst aus einem der vier Blasen platzt (egal wie weit es bis dahin aufgeblasen ist). wird es eine Inflation der Konsummärkte mit FIAT geben.------FOLGE: massiver Anstieg des nominellen Werts
BitCoin -- Janet Yellen
Ja, ich sehe es auch so. BitCoins sind --- NOCH --- nicht manipulierbar ohne dass es auffällt. Bei Gold und Silber hat man wohl die 70 er genutzt, um etwas zu basteln.BitCoins zeigen aktuell klar die Fieberkurve unseres seit 14.08.1971 (Ende Bretton Woods) kaputten Finanzsystems.
Und wenn Janet Yellen sogar in der Zinserhöhungspressekonferenz vor BitCoins warnt, dann geht denen wirklich der Arsch auf Grundeis.-----
Aktuell ist die Bio Druckerpresseninflation bei BitCoins, Aktien, Anleihen und Immos zu sehen....................Mondpreise überall.................wobei BitCoins von allem am liquidesten sind......
Aber auch BitCoins haben keinen Wert-----nur eine Kaufkraft---und bezahlen damit ist sehr kompliziert wie ich mehrfach feststellen muste.
Meine These: Sobald dieses Gerüst aus einem der vier Blasen platzt (egal wie weit es bis dahin aufgeblasen ist). wird es eine Inflation der Konsummärkte mit FIAT geben.------FOLGE: massiver Anstieg des nominellen Werts
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