AVZ Minerals Strong Outperformer (Seite 985)
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Werte aus der Branche Rohstoffe
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 2,5800 | +14,67 | |
| 0,5340 | +12,90 | |
| 337,00 | +12,33 | |
| 0,8947 | +11,85 | |
| 0,8000 | +11,03 |
| Wertpapier | Kurs | Perf. % |
|---|---|---|
| 183,20 | -19,30 | |
| 1,1367 | -22,67 | |
| 12,000 | -25,00 | |
| 8,3600 | -39,81 | |
| 46,60 | -97,97 |
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Eigentlich wollte ich keine Beiträge mehr aus dem HC Posten .
Aber dieser Beitrag gibt schon einen einblick seitens des MM in die Aktuelle Situation
und ein wenig einblick wie man so denkt in Sachen Planung AVZ
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/truth-of-the-matter-avz.462…
Der dazugehörige Link zum Beitrag in dem auch alle Links zu den Beiträgen
sind
Evening folks,
Hope everyone had a great weekend and my apologies for not getting a chance to post until now - the great outdoors with the kids and family took precedence this weekend and while summer is still upon us.
The following is my recollection of a one-on-one conversation with Nigel Ferguson, MD of AVZ Minerals late last week. My recollection, interpretation and opinion of what was said may be incorrect and therefore my notes and thoughts shouldn’t be considered as advice of any kind.
As part of my final thoughts, I've included some of my own research with reference to where the Lithium market might be heading, and have referenced some material for your viewing and reading pleasure - and in keeping with the title and theme of this thread.
Would also like to thank Nigel for his time and candidness and was relieved that he hadn’t gone into hibernation or hiding given the shellacking that he and his team have received on social media in recent times (rightly or wrongly). On the contrary, he and his team have been pressing forward with the development of Manono and understand that it is they who are ultimately responsible for the direction of the share price. Although Nigel maintains that he does not read HC and the like, he is aware of the current sentiment amongst investors (retail in particular) and so his willingness to speak with a random shareholder at length (even electing to delay a phone call from Airguide whilst in the middle of our chat) IMO illustrates the value he places on conversation with various shareholders.
Finally, and before I share my recollection and opinion, any topics that were not covered in the below notes weren’t discussed sorry. So please don’t message me with questions about other topics i.e. roads, hydro power, Dathomir etc, as I most likely won’t be able to answer them.
Would recommend that if you have any further concerns or queries then they should be directed at management. I’ve found the company to be very approachable thus far, and if you’re polite and respectful then you’ll probably have a much better chance of getting your questions answered than if you came across as say a demanding or arrogant **ck.
The same applies to those love to hate the company for whatever reason/s, I say to you that if you are determined to discredit whatever has been said or done, then that’s fine but please at least verify your argument or claims with facts and perhaps challenge management direct before spreading fear, lies and / or making unsubstantiated claims online. I’m sure you’d agree that there are more than enough posts about AVZ on most days, so clogging up the threads with spam, unsubstantiated info, defamatory comments, or comments designed to mislead others means that you are doing the online community (of which you are a member) a disservice.
My Notes:
Chairman??
AVZ management are looking for someone who has ASX and DRC experience (including taking an African mine into production).
So far, they’ve interviewed half a dozen potential candidates, none of which they felt were the right fit for the business for various reasons. They are currently talking to a potential candidate in South Africa but unsure as to whether this person is the right fit. The successful candidate needs to be involved in AVZ’s future for all the right reasons i.e. competent and experienced Chairperson to look after shareholders’ interests as opposed to looking after self-interests. If they are unable to find the right person abroad then they may look to appoint a known quantity back in Oz.
Current share price / overspending and the SPP
Nigel said that he is obviously disappointed with the current SP and understands the pain that shareholders have been experiencing (his shares were only last year trading at 37c before he purchased another 1m at 6.5c so I’m sure he more than understands what the AVZ faithful have endured over the last 12 months). However, he remains confident that the SP will recover as the project moves from pure exploration to pre-development phase, and the pipeline of news flow throughout 2019 builds on the steady progress that has been made over the last 12-18 months.
Nigel also pointed out that there was very strong support from existing shareholders to raise money via a SPP. He said the price and success of the SPP would ultimately be determined by those existing shareholders who are participating. He acknowledged that some holders may have opted to sell some of their shares on market recently (putting recent pressure on the SP) so that they could afford / participate at a discount in a few weeks’ time but added that a possible danger to that strategy is if the SPP came in oversubscribed and a scale back was required.
He said that anyone selling at these prices i.e. at 18-month lows may regret doing so in the future (or words to that effect) but in any case, he made it clear that it was management’s job to get the SP 'well north' of where it currently is. I took that as he and his team personally taking responsibility for the SP, even if much of the shenanigans with Klaus, Huayou etc. were or are ultimately beyond their control.
Nigel also said that he’d be very disappointed if Pattersons and their clients sold any of their uptake below 25c per share (but personally I think that is wishful thinking unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the sector and sentiment towards the company in the short term. Then again, he knows more than I do and no doubt he has had conversations with Patto’s about investment timeframes and what is possible in terms of short-term and medium-term catalysts to drive the SP well above where it sits today).
He mentioned that it takes time to build a world class mine and he also mentioned that he could have easily been a greedy director and sold his shares at 35c, but he chose to stay the course (unlike another director we all know and whom IMO he may have been having a dig at) because the true value of the asset needs to be realised so that all shareholders can be adequately rewarded in time.
Asked Nigel about the overspending (versus estimate) during the last quarter and his response was that they were ‘budgeted to drill to 150m but ended up drilling to 250m’. Make of that what you will but management’s decision to press ahead and ultimately provide shareholders with a better-defined resource and greater understanding of the Roche Dure pegmatite is IMO a reasonable excuse for spending above the budget, particularly as the drill rigs were still on-site.
JV / OT / Airguide notes
The company’s preference is not to do a JV as it also serves to dilute AVZ’s share of its main asset. However, they are most definitely looking at OT agreements and have already been offered OT’s by half a dozen or so interested parties. Offers of up to $150-200m have been put forward (sorry I should have clarified with Nigel as to whether these were verbal or written offers) however they have yet to agree to any terms, partly because the DFS still needs to be completed, which will obviously give both management and potential suitors a much clearer and more accurate assessment of the project's economics including details of requirements, costs and contingencies required to build a 2mtpa or 5mtpa operation at Manono. Nigel also acknowledged that there were quite a few parties on the books that had looked at the data but then when crunch time came the negotiations stalled.
Interpreted Nigel’s words and tone as twofold (but again please note that this is my opinion only and therefore may not be accurate). Firstly, I think that the offers were either unsatisfactory i.e. far from being in the best interests of shareholders, or the offers weren’t genuine or water tight when push came to shove. At this point in time there are naturally some big variables and unknowns that can't be accurately quantified until the DFS is released, but Nigel also said that the Chinese in particular have been playing funny buggers by promising one thing and then doing an about face.
To counteract the games that are evidently being played by the Chinese, management have instructed Airguide to broaden the investment/OT net with particular focus on the US, Japan and Korea (note: I see this as an insurance policy whilst sending a polite message to the Chinese. Nigel mentioned that the US are actively ‘pushing into the DRC’ now and name dropped a chap in the US by the name of ‘Prinz’, although I hadn’t heard of him and have yet to research his name and connection to the industry.
He also mentioned that there has been some interest from India and an Arabic state (guessing Saudi Arabia).
Nigel maintains that he doesn’t have any concern about a deal (OT agreement) being done, mainly due to the multiple offers that have already been put forward, but also the level of interest from parties that have until now held off due to the DRC election. Now that the election is over, he thinks that these parties will more than likely re-engage sooner rather than later.
Huayou notes
In short, Nigel has not been impressed with Huayou since they came on board. Apparently, they have not been supportive with board meetings and there have been reports that they have been spruiking (in China) that they own our asset (Manono). If this is true then I see their actions as being very presumptuous given their current stake, and my guess is that they maybe employing these tactics in a last-ditch attempt to ward off other potential Chinese suitors before they make their way to the AVZ table. (sidenote: this level of posturing reminds me of my cat whenever an intruder cat visits our property. He growls like a siren and marks his territory by urinating in strategic locations, even though by law he does not own our house).
Nigel said that Hauyou have been very slack and now it’s time for them to put up or shut up. Nigel’s doesn't whether they will convert their options come April (financially they are not in a great position I'm told), but if they don’t exercise them then Nigel said the SPP will more than likely mean that Huayou’s holdings will be diluted to the point where they no longer have the right to maintain their seat on the board, and that would effectively relieve them of all influence other than standard shareholder voting rights .
Other notes / looking forward
Nigel’s travelling to South Africa shortly for a mining investment conference (and he could already be there if it is however he didn’t confirm the name sorry). He mentioned that he has meetings lined up with several potential investment partners who have ‘no qualms about investing in DRC projects.’ Taurus Funds was one of the names he dropped but I didn’t jot down the others sorry.
Focus has moved beyond the pure exploration stage and into the pre-development phase (though some drilling will continue to further define the resource (see below).
Nigel’s keen to release the 5mtpa/10mtpa Scoping study ASAP. Just waiting on third parties to complete their bit and he acknowledged that it has been a bit frustrating as it has taken longer than they initially expected.
6 holes drilled at the end of the 2018 program are soon to be reported along with a new JORC resource update. Whilst Nigel doesn’t expect overall JORC tonnages to increase substantially this time, he expects both Measured and Indicated resource categories to be the real beneficiaries.
Nigel wants to de-water the Roche Dure pit in the next 3 months. This will allow further mining studies to be conducted, including but not limited to a field appraisal of the base of the Roche Dure pit and pit walls and to examine hydrogeological conditions in and around the pit. This essential ground work and more will form part of the DFS due mid-year.
Extensional down-dip drilling to 350m will take place at Roche Dure in the future, but I got the impression that this was unlikely to occur until after the DFS has been completed.
Immediately north of Roche Dure, the M’Pete and Tempete pegmatites are of great interest to Nigel and his team and one or both may form part of the future mining plan. They want to shallow drill these pegmatites to determine if they are of a similar ilk at / near surface to Roche Dure. The idea being that AVZ can begin at / near surface mining at Roche Dure and then continue this ultra-low-cost approach over at M’Pete and Tempete while the Roche Dure pit is further developed for deeper open cut practices.
Transport – sorry didn’t get the chance to talk about this part of the equation at length but Nigel did point out that they aren’t the first company in the DRC to take the export ore eastwards from the DRC.
Carriere De L’Este – being treated as a standalone project due to its location, size, and potential. Bears the hallmarks of another Roche Dure in the making.
Final thoughts (note: the below points are my thoughts only and do not necessarily represent those of the company)
*Got the distinct impression that Nigel and the team are intent on ‘going mining’ as opposed to preparing for an asset sale.
*It seems that many shareholders don’t appreciate the time, effort, expertise and process to build a world class mine. AVZ have made massive progress over the last 12-18 months but because the fundamental improvement has not been reflected in the SP of late, many have lost patience with what is a fairly standard process.
* The SPP I believe delivers on two fronts. Firstly, it provides sufficient funding for the company to press on until the DFS can be delivered mid-year. Secondly, I believe the SPP has been designed to protect the company and its shareholders from being held to ransom by Huayou.
* Agree with Nigel’s assessment that the success (or failure) of the SPP will ultimately be determined by existing shareholders over the next few weeks. Whether they choose to participate but also whether they add, maintain or reduce their holdings over the coming weeks will IMO have a material impact on the SPP price, as will any new investment in the short term from those who are ineligible to participate.
* My gut feel is that the SPP will be heavily oversubscribed and that there won’t be many (if any) shares allocated to existing investors for Patto’s to mop up at a 20% discount, however I have been proven wrong many times before so we shall see. Personally, I intend to add on-market and subscribe for the maximum allocation, as too will a couple of other family members.
* The fundamentals for the Lithium/EV/battery sector long term are not only brilliant but IMO disruptive. Late last week Inside EV's published the Global EV sales figure for 2018, and the year closed with more than 2 million sales. The result means a 72% growth on last year's 1.3m EVs, and this year 3 - 3.5m electric vehicles are expected to be sold.
And although we are still in the very early stages of this disruptive event, this exceptional rate of growth to date is broadly in line with Tony Seba's famed S Curve.
The following video by Seba talks about disruptive technology and the impact it has on established industries, and how the rate of disruption has increased substantially since the 1900s. Seba's predicting that there'll be 130 million EVs sold in 2030, effectively wiping out the ICE industry and creating a new service (Taas) using fully autonomous vehicles.
Is this all a bit too fictitious or not likely to happen for decades? Perhaps, but Seba also shows how so called 'experts' throughout history have grossly underestimated the power of technology disruption events. It's a must watch although it would be foolish to blindly follow one man's prediction regardless of his credentials, so I did some further research and found a 16-part series that essentially back-tests Seba's theories and delves into all four quadrants of a typical SWAT analysis. The following link is Part 1 but has links to the rest of the series (which again are a must read for any serious Lithium / EV investor):
Here's a little of what they have to say:
'Finally, some thoughts on the scale of the ramp-up in lithium mine production. Projects either recently put in place, starting up now, or planned are raising total global lithium production capacity fivefold from a little over 200,000 tonnes of LCE in 2017 to likely over one million tonnes in the early 2020s.
That kind of production hike costs an awful lot of money, but the money has been secured. In other words, a lot of smart people believe the market will be able to absorb over one million tonnes of LCE within five years. If they are wrong, the price of lithium will collapse, and these projects will flounder, and those same people will lose an awful lot of money.
Bottom line: to not lose money those financiers are betting the market can absorb a five-fold hike in lithium production. And the only way that will happen is if EV production and sales rise almost 20-fold from their current levels. And a 20-fold rise in EV sales will keep us broadly in line with Tony Seba‘s S curve through to the early 2020s. So a lot of big money believes in Seba‘s vision (even though most players don’t realize they do).
Of course, to get to Tony Seba‘s ultimate forecast of 130 million EV sales in 2030 would require lithium production to not only jump five-fold between now and say 2022, but also then jump six fold again through to 2030. Five times six equals 30. That is a lot of lithium! But a thirty-fold jump in lithium demand also means an awful lot of money to be made. In sum, Tony Seba‘s vision rests on a mountain of lithium. To grasp whether that mountain will grow big enough, just listen to Deep Throat‘s advice:'
So, as you can see there is already massive investment taking place in the Lithium space and this is very likely to ramp up in the years ahead. However, in 2018 concerns about oversupply versus modest demand growth led to a violent correction and a slashing of the value of all battery metal related assets in 2018.
The outlook for lithium in 2019 is mixed (depending on which expert you listen to) but I think it is safe to say that the violent correction of 2018 is unlikely to be repeated. Even our arch rivals / fossil fuel nemesis over at oilprice.com admit that the correction in lithium is overdone and could be about to rally.
If this is the case, then smart money will soon flow back into the sector and IMO AVZ will be one of the many beneficiaries. This will also help Nigel’s task of getting the SP ‘well north’ of where it is today a bit easier, not to mention an OT agreement or few that would provide a massive confidence boost to shareholders and underpin the company’s bright future.
AVZ has the goods (and great quality in abundance if one takes into account the tonnages, grade, low impurities and tin credits) and IMO it is in the right space at the right time. But further patience and poise is required to allow NF and his team to deliver a world class project and its goods to those who want it and need it the most, and prepared to pay a reasonable price for quality long term supply.
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha
Aber dieser Beitrag gibt schon einen einblick seitens des MM in die Aktuelle Situation
und ein wenig einblick wie man so denkt in Sachen Planung AVZ
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/truth-of-the-matter-avz.462…
Der dazugehörige Link zum Beitrag in dem auch alle Links zu den Beiträgen
sind
Evening folks,
Hope everyone had a great weekend and my apologies for not getting a chance to post until now - the great outdoors with the kids and family took precedence this weekend and while summer is still upon us.
The following is my recollection of a one-on-one conversation with Nigel Ferguson, MD of AVZ Minerals late last week. My recollection, interpretation and opinion of what was said may be incorrect and therefore my notes and thoughts shouldn’t be considered as advice of any kind.
As part of my final thoughts, I've included some of my own research with reference to where the Lithium market might be heading, and have referenced some material for your viewing and reading pleasure - and in keeping with the title and theme of this thread.
Would also like to thank Nigel for his time and candidness and was relieved that he hadn’t gone into hibernation or hiding given the shellacking that he and his team have received on social media in recent times (rightly or wrongly). On the contrary, he and his team have been pressing forward with the development of Manono and understand that it is they who are ultimately responsible for the direction of the share price. Although Nigel maintains that he does not read HC and the like, he is aware of the current sentiment amongst investors (retail in particular) and so his willingness to speak with a random shareholder at length (even electing to delay a phone call from Airguide whilst in the middle of our chat) IMO illustrates the value he places on conversation with various shareholders.
Finally, and before I share my recollection and opinion, any topics that were not covered in the below notes weren’t discussed sorry. So please don’t message me with questions about other topics i.e. roads, hydro power, Dathomir etc, as I most likely won’t be able to answer them.
Would recommend that if you have any further concerns or queries then they should be directed at management. I’ve found the company to be very approachable thus far, and if you’re polite and respectful then you’ll probably have a much better chance of getting your questions answered than if you came across as say a demanding or arrogant **ck.
The same applies to those love to hate the company for whatever reason/s, I say to you that if you are determined to discredit whatever has been said or done, then that’s fine but please at least verify your argument or claims with facts and perhaps challenge management direct before spreading fear, lies and / or making unsubstantiated claims online. I’m sure you’d agree that there are more than enough posts about AVZ on most days, so clogging up the threads with spam, unsubstantiated info, defamatory comments, or comments designed to mislead others means that you are doing the online community (of which you are a member) a disservice.
My Notes:
Chairman??
AVZ management are looking for someone who has ASX and DRC experience (including taking an African mine into production).
So far, they’ve interviewed half a dozen potential candidates, none of which they felt were the right fit for the business for various reasons. They are currently talking to a potential candidate in South Africa but unsure as to whether this person is the right fit. The successful candidate needs to be involved in AVZ’s future for all the right reasons i.e. competent and experienced Chairperson to look after shareholders’ interests as opposed to looking after self-interests. If they are unable to find the right person abroad then they may look to appoint a known quantity back in Oz.
Current share price / overspending and the SPP
Nigel said that he is obviously disappointed with the current SP and understands the pain that shareholders have been experiencing (his shares were only last year trading at 37c before he purchased another 1m at 6.5c so I’m sure he more than understands what the AVZ faithful have endured over the last 12 months). However, he remains confident that the SP will recover as the project moves from pure exploration to pre-development phase, and the pipeline of news flow throughout 2019 builds on the steady progress that has been made over the last 12-18 months.
Nigel also pointed out that there was very strong support from existing shareholders to raise money via a SPP. He said the price and success of the SPP would ultimately be determined by those existing shareholders who are participating. He acknowledged that some holders may have opted to sell some of their shares on market recently (putting recent pressure on the SP) so that they could afford / participate at a discount in a few weeks’ time but added that a possible danger to that strategy is if the SPP came in oversubscribed and a scale back was required.
He said that anyone selling at these prices i.e. at 18-month lows may regret doing so in the future (or words to that effect) but in any case, he made it clear that it was management’s job to get the SP 'well north' of where it currently is. I took that as he and his team personally taking responsibility for the SP, even if much of the shenanigans with Klaus, Huayou etc. were or are ultimately beyond their control.
Nigel also said that he’d be very disappointed if Pattersons and their clients sold any of their uptake below 25c per share (but personally I think that is wishful thinking unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the sector and sentiment towards the company in the short term. Then again, he knows more than I do and no doubt he has had conversations with Patto’s about investment timeframes and what is possible in terms of short-term and medium-term catalysts to drive the SP well above where it sits today).
He mentioned that it takes time to build a world class mine and he also mentioned that he could have easily been a greedy director and sold his shares at 35c, but he chose to stay the course (unlike another director we all know and whom IMO he may have been having a dig at) because the true value of the asset needs to be realised so that all shareholders can be adequately rewarded in time.
Asked Nigel about the overspending (versus estimate) during the last quarter and his response was that they were ‘budgeted to drill to 150m but ended up drilling to 250m’. Make of that what you will but management’s decision to press ahead and ultimately provide shareholders with a better-defined resource and greater understanding of the Roche Dure pegmatite is IMO a reasonable excuse for spending above the budget, particularly as the drill rigs were still on-site.
JV / OT / Airguide notes
The company’s preference is not to do a JV as it also serves to dilute AVZ’s share of its main asset. However, they are most definitely looking at OT agreements and have already been offered OT’s by half a dozen or so interested parties. Offers of up to $150-200m have been put forward (sorry I should have clarified with Nigel as to whether these were verbal or written offers) however they have yet to agree to any terms, partly because the DFS still needs to be completed, which will obviously give both management and potential suitors a much clearer and more accurate assessment of the project's economics including details of requirements, costs and contingencies required to build a 2mtpa or 5mtpa operation at Manono. Nigel also acknowledged that there were quite a few parties on the books that had looked at the data but then when crunch time came the negotiations stalled.
Interpreted Nigel’s words and tone as twofold (but again please note that this is my opinion only and therefore may not be accurate). Firstly, I think that the offers were either unsatisfactory i.e. far from being in the best interests of shareholders, or the offers weren’t genuine or water tight when push came to shove. At this point in time there are naturally some big variables and unknowns that can't be accurately quantified until the DFS is released, but Nigel also said that the Chinese in particular have been playing funny buggers by promising one thing and then doing an about face.
To counteract the games that are evidently being played by the Chinese, management have instructed Airguide to broaden the investment/OT net with particular focus on the US, Japan and Korea (note: I see this as an insurance policy whilst sending a polite message to the Chinese. Nigel mentioned that the US are actively ‘pushing into the DRC’ now and name dropped a chap in the US by the name of ‘Prinz’, although I hadn’t heard of him and have yet to research his name and connection to the industry.
He also mentioned that there has been some interest from India and an Arabic state (guessing Saudi Arabia).
Nigel maintains that he doesn’t have any concern about a deal (OT agreement) being done, mainly due to the multiple offers that have already been put forward, but also the level of interest from parties that have until now held off due to the DRC election. Now that the election is over, he thinks that these parties will more than likely re-engage sooner rather than later.
Huayou notes
In short, Nigel has not been impressed with Huayou since they came on board. Apparently, they have not been supportive with board meetings and there have been reports that they have been spruiking (in China) that they own our asset (Manono). If this is true then I see their actions as being very presumptuous given their current stake, and my guess is that they maybe employing these tactics in a last-ditch attempt to ward off other potential Chinese suitors before they make their way to the AVZ table. (sidenote: this level of posturing reminds me of my cat whenever an intruder cat visits our property. He growls like a siren and marks his territory by urinating in strategic locations, even though by law he does not own our house).
Nigel said that Hauyou have been very slack and now it’s time for them to put up or shut up. Nigel’s doesn't whether they will convert their options come April (financially they are not in a great position I'm told), but if they don’t exercise them then Nigel said the SPP will more than likely mean that Huayou’s holdings will be diluted to the point where they no longer have the right to maintain their seat on the board, and that would effectively relieve them of all influence other than standard shareholder voting rights .
Other notes / looking forward
Nigel’s travelling to South Africa shortly for a mining investment conference (and he could already be there if it is however he didn’t confirm the name sorry). He mentioned that he has meetings lined up with several potential investment partners who have ‘no qualms about investing in DRC projects.’ Taurus Funds was one of the names he dropped but I didn’t jot down the others sorry.
Focus has moved beyond the pure exploration stage and into the pre-development phase (though some drilling will continue to further define the resource (see below).
Nigel’s keen to release the 5mtpa/10mtpa Scoping study ASAP. Just waiting on third parties to complete their bit and he acknowledged that it has been a bit frustrating as it has taken longer than they initially expected.
6 holes drilled at the end of the 2018 program are soon to be reported along with a new JORC resource update. Whilst Nigel doesn’t expect overall JORC tonnages to increase substantially this time, he expects both Measured and Indicated resource categories to be the real beneficiaries.
Nigel wants to de-water the Roche Dure pit in the next 3 months. This will allow further mining studies to be conducted, including but not limited to a field appraisal of the base of the Roche Dure pit and pit walls and to examine hydrogeological conditions in and around the pit. This essential ground work and more will form part of the DFS due mid-year.
Extensional down-dip drilling to 350m will take place at Roche Dure in the future, but I got the impression that this was unlikely to occur until after the DFS has been completed.
Immediately north of Roche Dure, the M’Pete and Tempete pegmatites are of great interest to Nigel and his team and one or both may form part of the future mining plan. They want to shallow drill these pegmatites to determine if they are of a similar ilk at / near surface to Roche Dure. The idea being that AVZ can begin at / near surface mining at Roche Dure and then continue this ultra-low-cost approach over at M’Pete and Tempete while the Roche Dure pit is further developed for deeper open cut practices.
Transport – sorry didn’t get the chance to talk about this part of the equation at length but Nigel did point out that they aren’t the first company in the DRC to take the export ore eastwards from the DRC.
Carriere De L’Este – being treated as a standalone project due to its location, size, and potential. Bears the hallmarks of another Roche Dure in the making.
Final thoughts (note: the below points are my thoughts only and do not necessarily represent those of the company)
*Got the distinct impression that Nigel and the team are intent on ‘going mining’ as opposed to preparing for an asset sale.
*It seems that many shareholders don’t appreciate the time, effort, expertise and process to build a world class mine. AVZ have made massive progress over the last 12-18 months but because the fundamental improvement has not been reflected in the SP of late, many have lost patience with what is a fairly standard process.
* The SPP I believe delivers on two fronts. Firstly, it provides sufficient funding for the company to press on until the DFS can be delivered mid-year. Secondly, I believe the SPP has been designed to protect the company and its shareholders from being held to ransom by Huayou.
* Agree with Nigel’s assessment that the success (or failure) of the SPP will ultimately be determined by existing shareholders over the next few weeks. Whether they choose to participate but also whether they add, maintain or reduce their holdings over the coming weeks will IMO have a material impact on the SPP price, as will any new investment in the short term from those who are ineligible to participate.
* My gut feel is that the SPP will be heavily oversubscribed and that there won’t be many (if any) shares allocated to existing investors for Patto’s to mop up at a 20% discount, however I have been proven wrong many times before so we shall see. Personally, I intend to add on-market and subscribe for the maximum allocation, as too will a couple of other family members.
* The fundamentals for the Lithium/EV/battery sector long term are not only brilliant but IMO disruptive. Late last week Inside EV's published the Global EV sales figure for 2018, and the year closed with more than 2 million sales. The result means a 72% growth on last year's 1.3m EVs, and this year 3 - 3.5m electric vehicles are expected to be sold.
And although we are still in the very early stages of this disruptive event, this exceptional rate of growth to date is broadly in line with Tony Seba's famed S Curve.
The following video by Seba talks about disruptive technology and the impact it has on established industries, and how the rate of disruption has increased substantially since the 1900s. Seba's predicting that there'll be 130 million EVs sold in 2030, effectively wiping out the ICE industry and creating a new service (Taas) using fully autonomous vehicles.
Is this all a bit too fictitious or not likely to happen for decades? Perhaps, but Seba also shows how so called 'experts' throughout history have grossly underestimated the power of technology disruption events. It's a must watch although it would be foolish to blindly follow one man's prediction regardless of his credentials, so I did some further research and found a 16-part series that essentially back-tests Seba's theories and delves into all four quadrants of a typical SWAT analysis. The following link is Part 1 but has links to the rest of the series (which again are a must read for any serious Lithium / EV investor):
Here's a little of what they have to say:
'Finally, some thoughts on the scale of the ramp-up in lithium mine production. Projects either recently put in place, starting up now, or planned are raising total global lithium production capacity fivefold from a little over 200,000 tonnes of LCE in 2017 to likely over one million tonnes in the early 2020s.
That kind of production hike costs an awful lot of money, but the money has been secured. In other words, a lot of smart people believe the market will be able to absorb over one million tonnes of LCE within five years. If they are wrong, the price of lithium will collapse, and these projects will flounder, and those same people will lose an awful lot of money.
Bottom line: to not lose money those financiers are betting the market can absorb a five-fold hike in lithium production. And the only way that will happen is if EV production and sales rise almost 20-fold from their current levels. And a 20-fold rise in EV sales will keep us broadly in line with Tony Seba‘s S curve through to the early 2020s. So a lot of big money believes in Seba‘s vision (even though most players don’t realize they do).
Of course, to get to Tony Seba‘s ultimate forecast of 130 million EV sales in 2030 would require lithium production to not only jump five-fold between now and say 2022, but also then jump six fold again through to 2030. Five times six equals 30. That is a lot of lithium! But a thirty-fold jump in lithium demand also means an awful lot of money to be made. In sum, Tony Seba‘s vision rests on a mountain of lithium. To grasp whether that mountain will grow big enough, just listen to Deep Throat‘s advice:'
So, as you can see there is already massive investment taking place in the Lithium space and this is very likely to ramp up in the years ahead. However, in 2018 concerns about oversupply versus modest demand growth led to a violent correction and a slashing of the value of all battery metal related assets in 2018.
The outlook for lithium in 2019 is mixed (depending on which expert you listen to) but I think it is safe to say that the violent correction of 2018 is unlikely to be repeated. Even our arch rivals / fossil fuel nemesis over at oilprice.com admit that the correction in lithium is overdone and could be about to rally.
If this is the case, then smart money will soon flow back into the sector and IMO AVZ will be one of the many beneficiaries. This will also help Nigel’s task of getting the SP ‘well north’ of where it is today a bit easier, not to mention an OT agreement or few that would provide a massive confidence boost to shareholders and underpin the company’s bright future.
AVZ has the goods (and great quality in abundance if one takes into account the tonnages, grade, low impurities and tin credits) and IMO it is in the right space at the right time. But further patience and poise is required to allow NF and his team to deliver a world class project and its goods to those who want it and need it the most, and prepared to pay a reasonable price for quality long term supply.
GLTA
Cheers
Elpha
Mal sehen, ob die 10m-Order wieder kurz vor Eröffnung kommt.
@bcgk und kapuzenheini: vielen Dank für eure Analysen. Dann warten wir mal ab mit dem Nachschiessen - mein Mann sagt fast dasselbe wie ihr
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.774.898 von bcgk am 02.02.19 11:34:09Dass Explorer nunmal sich das Geld am Kapitalmarkt sammeln müssen, ist an sich nichts Neues.
Leider hat die Stimmung in den letzten 12 Monaten derart gedreht, dass nur die guten Unternehmen
auf Ottakes warten können. Heute ist absolute Bedingung, dass die DFS auf dem Tisch liegt und das MM weiß das ganz genau. Deshalb hat man schon zu verstehen gegeben, dass man notfalls auf weitere Bohrungen verzichtet, sollten die 15 Mio nicht komplett eingenommen werden können. Meiner Meinung nach machen sie aber momentan alles richtig, um zu versuchen, die genauen Ressourcen von Manono zu bestimmen, dass man letztenendes überhaupt über einen Wert sprechen kann. Und wenn die DFS steht und die Qualität und günstige Abbau- u. Energiekosten, Transportkosten bestätigt, woran ich keine Zweifel habe, wird man das Projekt sicher durchziehen können. Entweder alleine mit Offtakes oder durch eine Übernahme. Erinnere dich mal an Nemaska, hier war auch längere Zeit Stillstand, weil immer wieder Kohle aufgesammelt werden mußte, um weiter zu bauen. Hier kam auch kein Chinese und hat sich den Laden geschnappt, obwohl die Kasse leer war. Heute ist es bei Explorern genauso, nur die Rahmenbedingungen haben sich doch gewaltig erschwert.
Wenn die Chinesen das Vorhaben zum Nulltarif sichern wollen, müssten sie aber normalerweise alle Bohrungen und die DFS nochmal machen, was nochmal Jahre dauern kann. Das MM wird nicht verpflichtet sein, alle Daten zur Verfügung zu stellen, wenn sich die Chinesen den Laden unter die Nägel reißen. Man ist m.M. nach auf den, der die Entwicklungsarbeit macht - eben auf AVZ angewiesen. Wenn man Smarfy was raten möchte, müsste sie das Risiko nennen, was sie bereit ist einzugehen. Am sichersten wäre natürlich, nach der DFS einzusteigen, (wenns den Laden dann noch gibt), wenn schon Gespräche egal welcher Art (OT oder TO) laufen, dann sind halt die ersten paar Hundert Prozent schon weg. Allerdings immer noch genügend Potential. Es täte mir schon weg, wenn die Kohle weg wäre, aber ich werde den Bullen jetzt reiten.
Ja, es wird nicht langweilig, wenn man AVZ im Depot hat.
Leider hat die Stimmung in den letzten 12 Monaten derart gedreht, dass nur die guten Unternehmen
auf Ottakes warten können. Heute ist absolute Bedingung, dass die DFS auf dem Tisch liegt und das MM weiß das ganz genau. Deshalb hat man schon zu verstehen gegeben, dass man notfalls auf weitere Bohrungen verzichtet, sollten die 15 Mio nicht komplett eingenommen werden können. Meiner Meinung nach machen sie aber momentan alles richtig, um zu versuchen, die genauen Ressourcen von Manono zu bestimmen, dass man letztenendes überhaupt über einen Wert sprechen kann. Und wenn die DFS steht und die Qualität und günstige Abbau- u. Energiekosten, Transportkosten bestätigt, woran ich keine Zweifel habe, wird man das Projekt sicher durchziehen können. Entweder alleine mit Offtakes oder durch eine Übernahme. Erinnere dich mal an Nemaska, hier war auch längere Zeit Stillstand, weil immer wieder Kohle aufgesammelt werden mußte, um weiter zu bauen. Hier kam auch kein Chinese und hat sich den Laden geschnappt, obwohl die Kasse leer war. Heute ist es bei Explorern genauso, nur die Rahmenbedingungen haben sich doch gewaltig erschwert.
Wenn die Chinesen das Vorhaben zum Nulltarif sichern wollen, müssten sie aber normalerweise alle Bohrungen und die DFS nochmal machen, was nochmal Jahre dauern kann. Das MM wird nicht verpflichtet sein, alle Daten zur Verfügung zu stellen, wenn sich die Chinesen den Laden unter die Nägel reißen. Man ist m.M. nach auf den, der die Entwicklungsarbeit macht - eben auf AVZ angewiesen. Wenn man Smarfy was raten möchte, müsste sie das Risiko nennen, was sie bereit ist einzugehen. Am sichersten wäre natürlich, nach der DFS einzusteigen, (wenns den Laden dann noch gibt), wenn schon Gespräche egal welcher Art (OT oder TO) laufen, dann sind halt die ersten paar Hundert Prozent schon weg. Allerdings immer noch genügend Potential. Es täte mir schon weg, wenn die Kohle weg wäre, aber ich werde den Bullen jetzt reiten.
Ja, es wird nicht langweilig, wenn man AVZ im Depot hat.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.774.430 von Smarfy am 02.02.19 10:25:07Vielen Dank für die lieben Worte, aber von Anfang an hat hier nur @Maigret den Kurssturz prophezeiht. Schon zu Zeiten als ich noch betriebsblind durch den Lithiumdschungel gelaufen bin.
Ich habe hier meine letzten Stücke zu 0,12€ gegeben und seitdem gibt mir der Verlauf (Kursverlauf aber insbesondere Abläufe rund um den Laden) natürlich Recht.
Ich wiederhole mich - AVZ ist für mich derzeit nur zum traden geeignet. Ich kaufe 6-10% unter pari und verkaufe 6-10% über pari, wenn diejenigen Anleger, die auf Tradegate angewiesen sind, entweder in Panik schmeissen oder mit der Gier in den Augen überteuert kaufen. Das klappt nicht täglich, aber eben häufig.
So habe ich vorgestern erst einiges zu 0,027€ (Oz-Kurs war 0,029) abgegriffen und gestern einiges zu 0,034 und 0,033 (Oz-Kurs war 0,0315) verkauft. Das summiert sich über die Monate....
Ich stecke bei AVZ auch nicht im Detail drin. Aber die Vorgänge sind mMn wirklich abenteuerlich. Ein völlig unfähiges Management, ein wahnsinniger Promoter, ein ohne Rücksicht auf Verluste verkaufender Eckhof, chinesische Investoren, die brutale Verwässerung tolerieren, eine grandios amateurhafte Scoping Study, ein einmaliger delay track record etc.....
Dass man die Kasse quasi bis zur Insolvenz hat austrocknen lassen, zeigt einmal mehr die komplette Hilflosigkeit des MM. Der Umgang mit der ASX war ebenfalls beschämend.
Mir fällt hier wirklich nichts Positives ein, außer, dass diese Ressource enorm ist. Aber ich habe Zweifel, ob man das irgendwann mal auf die Straße bekommt.
Ich gehe heute davon aus, dass AVZ die nächsten 12 Monate in der Form nicht überleben wird und Manono zu einem Spottpreis an die Chinesen geht. Auch wenn das nur die Allerwenigsten bislang glauben wollen.
Ich habe tatsächlich gestern die ersten 100k einige Sekunden nach 8 Uhr zu 0,03€ gekauft (weil wieder 7% unter pari) und meine 0,027er Stücke dann zu 0,033 und 0,034 verkauft. Durch das Getrade der letzten Wochen habe ich meine Position mittlerweile längst für lau. Daher kann ich dem Treiben emotionslos zusehen. Die fette Order (10m Stücke) in Oz hat mich aber schon beeindruckt. Wenn die jetzt täglich wiederkommen würde, könnte es spannend werden und die 0,05$ wären evtl. der Boden. Aber wer weiß das schon?
Wenn du in AVZ wirklich long investieren willst, würde ich dir raten die Hälfte jetzt und die Hälfte nach Bekanntgabe des CR-Pricings zu investieren. Aber das sicher nur mit Geld, dessen Totalverlust du komplett schmerzfrei verkraften kannst.
Ich habe hier meine letzten Stücke zu 0,12€ gegeben und seitdem gibt mir der Verlauf (Kursverlauf aber insbesondere Abläufe rund um den Laden) natürlich Recht.
Ich wiederhole mich - AVZ ist für mich derzeit nur zum traden geeignet. Ich kaufe 6-10% unter pari und verkaufe 6-10% über pari, wenn diejenigen Anleger, die auf Tradegate angewiesen sind, entweder in Panik schmeissen oder mit der Gier in den Augen überteuert kaufen. Das klappt nicht täglich, aber eben häufig.
So habe ich vorgestern erst einiges zu 0,027€ (Oz-Kurs war 0,029) abgegriffen und gestern einiges zu 0,034 und 0,033 (Oz-Kurs war 0,0315) verkauft. Das summiert sich über die Monate....
Ich stecke bei AVZ auch nicht im Detail drin. Aber die Vorgänge sind mMn wirklich abenteuerlich. Ein völlig unfähiges Management, ein wahnsinniger Promoter, ein ohne Rücksicht auf Verluste verkaufender Eckhof, chinesische Investoren, die brutale Verwässerung tolerieren, eine grandios amateurhafte Scoping Study, ein einmaliger delay track record etc.....
Dass man die Kasse quasi bis zur Insolvenz hat austrocknen lassen, zeigt einmal mehr die komplette Hilflosigkeit des MM. Der Umgang mit der ASX war ebenfalls beschämend.
Mir fällt hier wirklich nichts Positives ein, außer, dass diese Ressource enorm ist. Aber ich habe Zweifel, ob man das irgendwann mal auf die Straße bekommt.
Ich gehe heute davon aus, dass AVZ die nächsten 12 Monate in der Form nicht überleben wird und Manono zu einem Spottpreis an die Chinesen geht. Auch wenn das nur die Allerwenigsten bislang glauben wollen.
Ich habe tatsächlich gestern die ersten 100k einige Sekunden nach 8 Uhr zu 0,03€ gekauft (weil wieder 7% unter pari) und meine 0,027er Stücke dann zu 0,033 und 0,034 verkauft. Durch das Getrade der letzten Wochen habe ich meine Position mittlerweile längst für lau. Daher kann ich dem Treiben emotionslos zusehen. Die fette Order (10m Stücke) in Oz hat mich aber schon beeindruckt. Wenn die jetzt täglich wiederkommen würde, könnte es spannend werden und die 0,05$ wären evtl. der Boden. Aber wer weiß das schon?
Wenn du in AVZ wirklich long investieren willst, würde ich dir raten die Hälfte jetzt und die Hälfte nach Bekanntgabe des CR-Pricings zu investieren. Aber das sicher nur mit Geld, dessen Totalverlust du komplett schmerzfrei verkraften kannst.
Trading Spotlight
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.773.284 von bcgk am 01.02.19 23:12:45Hallo bcgk - ich finde deine Analysen immer sehr treffend, du hast den Kursabsturz von Anfang an prophezeiht. Ist das jetzt ernst gemeint dass du nachgekauft hast oder ironisch? Wenn es ernst ist - hast du den Eindruck dass der Kurs bakd wieder steigt? Worauf bezieht sich deine Vermutung? - Ich überlege nachzukaufen aber mein Mann ist dagegen. Was kannst du uns raten? Lg
AVZ Minerals Share Price Up on of Announcement Share Purchase Plan
https://www.moneymorning.com.au/20190201/avz-minerals-share-…
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.773.284 von bcgk am 01.02.19 23:12:45Ich warte erstmal ab zu welchen Kurs CR abgewickelt wird und entscheide dann neu. Bei meinem Glück wird der Preis jetzt hochgepusht, damit die Verwässerung nicht zu stark wird. Nigel schien auch Besuch von so einigen verärgerten HC Forenteilnehmern bekommen zu haben. Zumindest haben sie es so geplant gehabt.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 59.773.176 von BlackForrestGump am 01.02.19 22:46:50Der Kurs in Oz ist 7% gestiegen. Schlusskurs am Donnerstag war 0.045$ und gestern kam vorbörslich eine 10 Mio Order mit Limit 0.048$. Das sollte wohl ein Zeichen setzen. Die Order blieb bis Handelsende unberührt. Gehandelt wurde zu 0.049 und 0.05. Nach Handelsende war die Order weg. Ob sie Montag wieder kommt, wird man sehen.
Was bedeutet das? Jemand, der wirklich kaufen will, macht das unauffälliger. Daher nehme ich an, dass es einfach den Selloff beenden sollte. Bleibt spannend.
Habe heute ganz früh gleich 100k zu 0.03€ bekommen. Mehr gab es leider nicht. Bei umgerechnet 0.032€ ein Pflichtdeal
Was bedeutet das? Jemand, der wirklich kaufen will, macht das unauffälliger. Daher nehme ich an, dass es einfach den Selloff beenden sollte. Bleibt spannend.
Habe heute ganz früh gleich 100k zu 0.03€ bekommen. Mehr gab es leider nicht. Bei umgerechnet 0.032€ ein Pflichtdeal
Wieso zieht der Kurs jetzt an? Kann doch keine Deutsche Dummheit sein oder?
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