Corning - indirekt zu 25% an Hemlock beteiligt (Seite 4)

[R-BgO]

Corning to exclusively supply glass substrates for BOE 10.5G fab, says Corning Taiwan president

Rebecca Kuo, Taipei; Adam Hwang, DIGITIMES [Monday 21 December 2015]


As BOE Technology started constructing a 10.5G LCD panel fab in Hefei, northern China, in early December, Corning will set up a production base close to it to become its exclusive supplier of glass substrates, according to Daniel Tseng, president for Corning Display Technologies Taiwan.

The China-based BOE's 10.5G fab will have monthly production capacity of 90,000 substrates (3,370x2,940mm), and the 10.5G glass is 80.14% larger than a 8.5G one (2,500x2,200mm), Tseng said. The BOE fab will kick off production in second-quarter 2018, replacing Sharp's 10G fab as the world's largest panel line, Tseng noted.

Corning's production base near BOE's will have five furnaces and three back-end processing lines, with glass substrates to be delivered to the panel fab via an automated conveying corridor, Tseng indicated.

BOE is building the 10.5G fab to meet demand for large-size LCD TVs, Tseng said, adding it will mainly produce 65-, 75- and 85-inch TV panels, with the most economical cuts being eight 65-inch panels per susbtrate.

According to WitsView, global shipments of 65-inch and above TV panels will increase from 1.5 million units in 2014 to 6.8 million units in 2015 and further to 8.3 million units in 2016, with the corresponding proportion of total TV panel shipments to rise from 0.6% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.

[SmartCap]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.950.227 von R-BgO am 28.10.15 11:10:38

wenn diese Daten zum Beispiel erhöhten Wettbewerbsdruck reflektieren würden, wäre das für meine Entscheidungsfindung sogar sehr wichtig. Die Yahoo finance Daten / Schätzungen sind nach meinen Erfahrungen/Infos oft sehr gut.

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.786.388 von SmartCap am 06.10.15 16:19:45

keine Ahnung,

ist das wichtig?


mögliche Einflußfaktoren sind Währung, Hedges, equity earnings,...


wichtig ist m.E. doch eher
* gute Produkte
* gute Marktstellung
* Gewinne
* gute EK-Rendite
* solide Bilanz

dann wird gelten: kommt Zeit, kommt Kursgewinn

[R-BgO]

Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 50.948.379 von sirmike am 28.10.15 08:39:18

yup, sie haben pflichtgemäß den war-on-equity erklärt...

und der Kurs hat's gedankt;

persönlich halte ich von so was gar nichts, bin Fan von Bilanzfestungen.



Anyway, operativ gibt es auch Neues:

Corning Lotus NXT Glass chosen for Samsung Display LTPS-OLED line
Press release, October 27; Alex Wolfgram, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 28 October 2015]

Corning has announced its Corning Lotus NXT Glass will be used in Samsung's line of LTPS, OLED panels, according to Corning.

Samsung Display selected Lotus NXT Glass as its backplane substrate because it enables higher-resolution, more energy-efficient displays, Corning said. Samsung Display produces LTPS-OLED panels for its customers who subsequently use them in high-resolution smart phones and tablets.

Samsung Display's LTPS-OLED panels using Lotus NXT Glass now power the Galaxy Note5, the newest product of Samsung Electronics.

Corning unveiled Lotus NXT Glass - its third-generation composition for high-performance displays - on June 1, 2015. It features total pitch variation - an integral element to panel performance that enables high resolutions and bright displays.

[sirmike [Blogger]]

Artikel auf iNTELLiGENT iNVESTiEREN...


Corning ist glasklar ein Investment wert

Corning Inc. ist weltweiter Marktführer in der Herstellung von Spezialgläsern und Keramik - und eigentlich eine Holding, die 5 Geschäftsbereiche unter ihren Fittichen hat. Denn obwohl alle mit Glas und seiner Nutzung zu tun haben, sind sie doch ziemlich eigenständig und bergen nur bedingt Synergien.

Am bekanntesten und zuletzt immer häufiger in den Medien ist der Bereich Spezialmaterialien, der das berühmte "Gorilla Glas" fertigt, das so viele Smartphones und Tablets von Herstellern wie Apple oder Samsung ziert. Denn Gorilla Glas ist extrem kratzfest, berührungsempfindlich, stromsparend und wenig reflektierend – kurz gesagt, es ist das Produkt von Corning, das wir alle tagtäglich antatschen, oft mehrmals in der Minute. Corning liefert die Touchscreens unseres iPhones, unseres Nexus-Tablets und vieler anderer Geräte, die über Gesten und Berührungen gesteuert werden.

Doch auch wenn diese Sparte die meiste Phantasie birgt, ist sie doch nur ein Bereich unter vielen im Corning-Universum. Denn neben den Spezialmaterialien gibt es noch die vier weiteren Geschäftsbereiche Anzeigentechnologien, Umwelttechnologien, Optische Kommunikation und Biowissenschaften.

In der Sparte Umwelttechnologien produziert Corning Keramiksubstrate und Filterprodukte zur Emissionskontrolle in mobilen und stationären Anwendungen weltweit, also in Generatoren, Antrieben, Autokatalysatoren.

Die im Bereich Biowissenschaften zusammengefassten Produkte umfassen allgemeine Laborprodukte und Geräte sowie Spezialoberflächen, die in der Arzneimittelforschung, Mikrobiologie und Chemie zum Einsatz kommen. Hier hatte man kürzlich erst das Röhrenglasgeschäft des deutschen Verpackungsspezialisten Gerresheimer übernommen.

Die Sparte Optische Kommunikation könnte man vereinfacht als Glasfaserkabelsparte bezeichnen, denn hier geht es um das schnelle Internet, das Rückgrat der immer höheren Bandbreiten, die die neuen Smartphones, Tablets, Video-on-Demand-Anbieter verlangen, um den Kunden immer bessere und ruckelfreie Kommunikation und Entertainment anbieten zu können.

Und bei den Anzeigentechnologien geht es vor allem um Glassubstrate, die in LCD-Fernsehern, Notebooks und Flachbildschirmen zum Einsatz kommen.

Glas ist der Werkstoff der Zukunft(stechnologien)
Während die ersten beiden Sparten für solide, langweilige Geschäftsbereiche mit etablierten Geschäftsfeldern, Umsätzen und Erträgen stehen, spielt in den drei anderen die Zukunftsmusik. Der schleichende Tod der Computermaus und der Tastatur durch den Siegeszug der Touchscreens führt dazu, dass immer mehr Bereiche unseres Lebens mit „intelligentem“ Glas überzogen werden (müssen), ob es Fernseher sind oder die Bedienungselemente in unseren Autos – hier ging Corning jüngst eine Kooperation mit BMW ein, um das neuste Cornings-Glas im Elektroauto i8 einzusetzen. Die normalen Glasfenster werden so zu berührungsempfindlichen Steuerelementen und zu Anzeigekomponenten für technische Einblendungen und Informationsdarstellung.

Doch gerade im Bereich von Gorilla Glas stand Corning vor einer großen Herausforderung. Denn Apple hatte sich auf eine andere Technologie versteift, wollte für seine Geräte Saphir-Glas einsetzen, und hatte sich mit Milliardenaufwand an einer eigenen Fertigung versucht. Und ist gescheitert. Denn die Hoffnungen, die man mit Saphir-Glas verband, konnten nicht erfüllt werden. Zu schwer, zu splitteranfällig, zu energieintensiv. Und während Apples größter Konkurrent (und gleichzeitig wichtigster Zulieferer) Samsung sich mit 10% an Corning beteiligte und Gorilla Glas in seinen Geräten einsetzt, hatte die Apple-Abkehr für empfindliche Kurseinbrüche bei Corning gesorgt. Notgedrungen musste Apple wieder auf Gorilla Glas zurückgreifen für seine iPhones und iPads.

Project Phire
Corning ist schlau genug, sich nicht auf alten Erfolgen auszuruhen. Vielmehr hat man diesen deutlichen Wink mit dem Zaunpfahl verstanden und fleißig an einer Verbesserung von Gorilla Glas gearbeitet. Und diese sind so gravierend, dass das neue Produkt gleich einen neuen Namen bekommt: Project Phire. Dieses neue Glas vereint die Bruchfestigkeit von Gorilla Glas mit der Kratzfestigkeit von Saphir-Glas und bietet weitere Vorteile, weil es leichter ist, noch weniger Energie verbraucht und weil Sonneneinstrahlung nach besser kompensiert werden kann, so dass die Endgeräte sich noch besser für den Einsatz im Freien eignen, kratz- uns bruchsicherer sein werden und längere Akkulaufzeiten versprechen. Allein aufgrund des verwendeten Materials für das Display bzw. die Touchscreens.

Unternehmen der verschiedenen Geschwindigkeiten
Wie man an den unterschiedlichen Sparten sehen kann, ist Corning ein Unternehmen der verschiedenen Geschwindigkeiten. Einerseits gibt es etablierte Geschäftsbereiche mit wenig Wachstum und gefestigten Erlösen und hinsichtlich seines Silikon-Joint-Ventures mit dem Chemie-Giganten Dow Chemical hatte Corning bereits die Absicht geäußert, seine Anteile an den Partner abgeben zu wollen und Dow hat seinerseits nun Interesse bekundet. Und dann gibt es jene Bereiche, die schnell wachsen sowie höhere Investitionen in neue Produkte erfordern - und die hohe Gewinne für die Zukunft versprechen.

Versteckte Werte heben

Star-Invstor Carl Icahn, Icahn Enterprises
An dieser Stelle wird es spannend, denn Gerüchten zufolge ist genau diese Konstellation der Gurnd, weshalb Corning ins Visier „aktivistischer Investoren“ geraten ist. Kein Geringerer als Starinvestor Carl Icahn soll sich bei Corning zur Zeit einkaufen und was dann folgen wird, kann man sich in bunten Farben ausmalen. Denn Icahn ist ein aktiver, konfliktfreudiger Investor, der sich bevorzugt in Unternehmen einkauft und einmischt, bei denen er versteckte Werte vermutet. So kaufte er nach dem großen Einbruch bei Apple einen Milliardenanteil zusammen und setzte Apple-CEO Tim Cook auch öffentlich dermaßen unter Druck, dass Apple die Dividenden deutlich erhöhte und seine Aktienrückkäufe massiv ausweitete. Bei Ebay sorgte Icahn dafür, dass der Online-Bezahldienst PayPal abgespalten und als separates Unternehmen an die Börse gebracht wurde - die jüngst präsentierten Quartalszahlen belegen, dass es beiden seit der Trennung hervorragend geht. Und bei Corning findet sich ebenfalls eine Mischung aus unterschiedlichen Geschäftsfeldern, die sich getrennt wohl deutlich besser entwickeln könnten als unter einem gemeinsamen Dach. Wer in die wachsenden Zukunftsbereiche investieren will, der muss heute auch den Medizin- und Umweltbereich mit kaufen.

Ob es nun Icahn ist oder ein anderer der vielen aktivistischen Investoren, unter dem Strich bahnt sich bei Corning eine Entwicklung an, die die Werte der einzelnen Geschäftsbereiche zum Vorschein bringen könnte. Dabei bin ich nicht per se ein Freund von Einmischungen seitens der Aktionäre, denn das Unternehmen gut zu führen, ist zuvorderst Aufgabe des Managements, nicht des Aufsichtsrats und auch nicht der Aktionäre. Allerdings kann eine solche Einmischung dem Management dabei helfen, verkrustete Strukturen aufzubrechen und notwendige Veränderungsprozesse anzugehen, die ohne einen starken äußeren Impuls vielleicht am „bürokratischen Widerstand“ innerhalb des Unternehmens gar nicht realisierbar wären.

Quartalszahlen, mehr Dividende und stärkere Aktienrückkäufe
Bis es soweit ist, hat das Unternehmen auch heute schon operativ einiges zu bieten, auch wenn die Zahlen zum 3. Quartal unter denen des Vorjahres lagen. Der Nettoumsatz fiel gegenüber dem Vorjahreswert von 2,54 Mrd. USD auf 2,27 Mrd. USD und der Nettogewinn sogar von 1,01 Mrd. USD auf 188 Mio. USD bzw. 0,15 USD je Aktie (0,72 USD). Unter Ausblendung von Sondereffekten blieben Corning 0,34 USD je Aktie nach 0,37 USD im Vorjahr.

Ein größeres Augenmerk richtet sich allerdings auf die begleitenden Aussagen des Managements. Bis 2019 will man 20 Mrd. USD investieren, darunter10 Mrd. USD in Dividendenzahlungen und Aktienrückkäufe. Dazu weitet man das bestehende Aktienrückkaufprogramm um weitere 4 Mrd. USD aus und bereits im aktuellen vierten Quartal soll es beschleunigt und für 1,25 Mrd. USD eigene Aktien erworben werden. Weitere 10 Mrd. USD werden in den Ausbau des Geschäfts fließen, um Cornings führende Marktposition zu erhalten und auszubauen.

Cornings Quartalsdividende wird zum vierten Mal 0,12 USD je Aktie betragen und am 11. Dezember überwiesen. Der Dividendenabschlag hierzu erfolgt am 10. November. Allerdings will das Unternehmen seine Dividende bis 2019 um jährlich jeweils 10% anheben.

Fazit
Ob nun durch äußere Einmischung oder durch eigenes Erkennen des Managements, wir Corning-Aktionäre können eigentlich von den Überlegungen nur profitieren und die möglichen Entwicklungen als Bonus betrachten bei einem attraktiv bewerteten Langfristinvestment mit interessanten Perspektiven.

Seitdem ich Corning Ende Juli auf meine Empfehlungsliste genommen habe, ist der Kurs im Zuge der Herbstkorrektur noch etwas weiter gefallen. Bei den jetzt aktuellen 16,50 EUR wird das Unternehmen mit einem 2016er GV von 11,8 und einer Dividendenrendite von 2,7% bewertet, was angesichts des soliden Cashflows und der positiven Aussichten geradezu unverschämt günstig erscheint.

[SmartCap]

quelle yahoo finance

Market Cap (intraday)5: 21.74B
Enterprise Value (Oct 6, 2015)3: 19.45B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 8.81
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: 11.84
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 7.75
Price/Sales (ttm): 2.26
Price/Book (mrq): 1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.04
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.37

der kapitalmarkt scheint für 2016 rückläufige gewinne zu erwarten. Warum ?

[R-BgO]

Schott optimistic about thin glass demand in the semiconductor industry

Rebecca Kuo, Taipei; Alex Wolfgram, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 2 September 2015]

Schott is optimistic about the roll that thin glass products will play in the market, particularly in the semiconductor industry where thin glass substrate demand is on the rise, according to the company speaking at Semicon Taiwan 2015.

The company also has high hopes for the glass used in smartphones for fingerprint recognition sensors in addition to being used for replacing sapphire for various components. Schott also believes thin glass will pave the way for applications in new micro batteries that require low production costs and can withstand high production temperatures.

The maker has already begun mass production of 0.145mm and 0.2mm products and also produces specialized 0.025mm products.

[sirmike [Blogger]]

Quelle: zacks.com


Corning 2Q Earnings Beat Estimates, FX Concerns Remain

Corning (GLW - Analyst Report) reported second-quarter core earnings of 38 cents, ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 37 cents. The Optical segment was the high point of the quarter, benefiting from stronger demand and recent acquisitions.

Revenue
Reported revenue of $2.34 billion, grew 3.4% sequentially, dropped 5.6% year over year and was 8.3% below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.56. Core revenues were higher at $2.52 billion but stilled the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

The Display Technologies segment generated around 34% of total revenue. Segment revenue was down 18.8% sequentially and 20.1% year over year. LCD glass volumes increased at a low single-digit percentage rate from last year, so was not enough to offset the impact of expected glass price declines.

Optical Communications (34% of revenue) grew 14.8% sequentially and 16.6% from the year-ago quarter, in line with expectations. The results were driven by continued strength in FTTH sales in North America as well as the contribution from recent acquisitions.

The Environmental Technologies segment generated around 11% of revenue, down 7.8% sequentially and 8.8% year over year, worse than expected. This was mainly on account of unfavorable currency impact that management mentioned on the last earnings call.

Specialty Materials generated 12% of revenue, flat sequentially and 8.7% year over year, slightly worse than expected. Gorilla Glass volumes grew at a mid-teens percentage rate but, similar to last quarter, the strength was partially offset by weakness in advanced optics.

The Life Sciences business accounted for around 9% of revenue. The business was up 7.1% sequentially but down 5.4% from a year ago, impacted by curency.

Margins
The gross margin was 47.8%, up 61 bps sequentially and 622 bps from last year.

The operating expenses of $552 million were up 4.2% sequentially and 6.4% year over year. R&D was down as a percentage of sales from both previous and year-ago quarters. SG&A increased 20 bps sequentially and 191 bps from last year. The net result was an operating margin of 24.2%, which expanded 45 bps sequentially and 357 bps from the year-ago quarter.

Net Income
Corning’s core net earnings were $522 million, or 22.3% of sales compared to $484 million or 21.4% in the previous quarter and $487 million, or 20.8% in the year-ago quarter. Net income on a GAAP basis was $496 million ($0.36 a share) compared to $407 million ($0.29) in the previous quarter and $169 million ($0.12 a share) in the Jun quarter of 2014.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Inventories were up 4.1% during the quarter, with inventory turns going from 3.6X to 3.5X. DSOs are flat at around 60. Corning ended the quarter with $5.47 billion in cash and short term investments, up $406 million during the quarter. However, the company has a huge debt balance. Including long term liabilities and short term debt, the net debt position was $1.44 billion at the end of the quarter, which increased from the net debt balance of $1.10 billion at the beginning of the quarter.

Cash generated from operations was $547 million, with the main uses of cash being $308 million on capex, $286 million on acquisitions, $616 million on share repurchases and $173 million on dividends.

Guidance
Third quarter glass volumes are expected to increase in the low single-digit percentage rate with price declines remaining moderate. Optical Communications sales are expected to grow at a mid-teens percentage rate year over year due to continued strength in FTTH and data center, Environmental to be down slightly impacted by a weaker euro and Specialty Materials to decline at a high single-digits percentage due to a cyclical slowdown in the semiconductor industry (GG volumes will be up high single digits sequentially and flat year over year).

Recommendation
Corning’s second-quarter earnings were ahead of expectations, but all except the optical communications business did worse than expected. As a result, shares slid lower as soon as the markets opened.

Currency remains a major headwind, accounting for the below-expectations performance in three of the segments. Corning has hedge contracts in place that partially protect its results. Management has said that 100% of 2015 earnings, 80% of 2016 earnings and 70% of 2017 earnings have been hedged under the new program.
The company is also returning cash to investors both as share repurchases and dividends, increasing the dividend by 20% last December and authorizing a new share repurchase program of $2 billion last week.

[sirmike [Blogger]]

Corning Represents A Growth-Oriented Value Investment

(Quelle: SeekingAlpha) Corning has the best of both value and growth worlds.

They're a leader in releasing high-quality penetrative technologies.
Their history is one of strategic business growth partnered with strong cash flows.
I would like to discuss the current dynamic behind Corning Inc. (NYSE:GLW) and the upside it represents for investors. It's arguably a "growth" company, with a high beta and growth-like trading patterns, but factors like debt reconstruction, increasing dividends and strong financials are more synonymous with value companies.

The diversified technology company has stayed strong through hard times with an increasing price of raw materials, global competition and demand headwinds due to global economic uncertainty. The same cannot be said about its stock price, which leaves the individual investor in an interesting position.

Investment Thesis

GLW is, as I mentioned, a diversified technology company. They've recently acquired iBwave Solutions, Inc. and Samsung's' Fiber Optics business line, and partnered with OLED Works and BMW, successfully building their operations and asset portfolio. Their latest investment was an LCD factory in China, which enabled localized service to Chinese customers. However, the time tested competitive advantage that GLW has prided itself on isn't acquisitions, it's releasing cutting edge technology.

Throughout the years, GLW has successfully introduced quality products at the cusp of the introduction of a penetrative technology to the market, meaning they are able to see where a market is going and be the leaders in developing that new product. One such example is GLWs Gorilla Glass, which has been able to adapt to the dynamic glass market time and time again. For years, the durability and quality of Gorilla Glass remained untouched. However, one of the main headwinds GLW is currently facing is competition brought on by firms that caught up to the technology behind Gorilla Glass, namely in the mobile tech market. I argue that at this point, GLW will do what it does best and move on to developing a new technology, and there's proof that it already has.

Display Technology Segment

After four re-releases of Gorilla Glass, each one more impact resistant, cost effective and high-quality than the last, competitors have entered the arena. Where Corning had almost total access to contracts with large corporations to produce glass for mobile devices and other consumer electronics, there is now a highly competitive marketplace that leads to price competition and lower sales prices for GLW. It should be mentioned at this point that GLW's last reported quarterly sales clocked in at an all-time high with near record margins, so it may not be as bad as analysts expect.

In his most recent address to shareholders, CEO Wendell Weeks noted that Gorilla Glass Automotive has a new opportunity in the automotive market, as evidenced by the BMW contract. This glass is one-third the weight and 25% thinner than conventional windshields, while maintaining quality and safety standards. For consumers, this move will provide better fuel economy. For producers, it will provide an added selling point, and for GLW, this move represents continued excellence in penetrative technology.

GLW is ahead of the curve in this segment - that has been established. But by how far? The article included below argues by three years. As noted in the following Bloomberg article, GLWs Willow material is made to provide flexible glass to fit a flexible phone when mobile tech reaches that point. Until then, they expect to see an increase in sales sometime this year.

GLW used to have sole access to corporate demand for smartphone glass, and supplied that demand with Gorilla Glass. There's bound to be a threat of substitutes in any market, but what GLW has done to address that is impressive to say the least. They've expanded the capabilities of Gorilla Glass to include Automotive, TV-entertainment, LCD and flexible glass applications. In so doing, they have successfully expanded the number of clients they service and should see an appropriate increase in sales. This thought is confirmed, if nothing else than in the short term, by pulling in the most sales per quarter in their MRQ earnings call.

Most Recent Earnings

("Core" refers to non-GAAP metrics excluding yen/USD rate, as GLW has implemented a swap hedge on the currency):

- 4% yoy increase in total core sales
- 21% core EPS increase over 1Q2014
- Lower than expected product price declines (expected to continue below forecasts)
- Core gross margin was 44%, up 1% from 1Q2014

Display Technologies saw a 4% yoy increase in core earnings due to high growth in LCD glass volume and cost reductions.

Optical Communications saw an 85% increase in core earnings from 1Q 2014 due to the acquisition of TR Manufacturing and increases in carrier and enterprise network sales.

Environmental Technologies saw a 12% increase in core earnings since 1Q 2014 due to the higher margins associated with products in this line and higher North American volume.

Specialty Materials saw a 44% increase in core earnings since 1Q2014 due to explosive demand for Gorilla Glass 4.

Life Sciences saw a 14% decline in core equity earnings since 1Q2014 due to lack of demand.

CFO James Flaws cited increases in optical communications and environmental technologies as growth drivers in 2Q 2015, and that acquisitions should drive growth in every segment except specialty materials and life sciences. This decrease should be due to lower sales in advanced optics and the impact of currency conversions.

Valuation

In order to value GWL, I used a typical DDM and condensed DCF. This is because GLW has held a steady and sizable dividend and its ability to produce cash flows is almost astounding.

Assumptions - DDM Growth Rates

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019
Revenue 17.10% 11.90% 10.50% 12.30% 15.20%
Cost of Rev
(% of Rev)
57.00% 57.60% 57.60% 57.60% 57.50%
Total Operating
Expenses
15.90% 7.40% 6.50% 9.60% 9.80%
Operating Income 25.70% 13.50% 14.30% 14.50% 20.60%
Net Interest Income 3.40% 10.70% 25.30% 22.00% 15.40%
NIBT 20.60% 22.60% 23.70% 24.40% 22.80%
Net Income 13.20% 7.50% 16.10% 13.80% 15.40%
Payout Ratio -4.80% 24.20% 1.20% 0.00% 5.20%
WACC .105 .110 .115 .115 .115
LT Growth .035
Price $26.35

I arrived at a base case price of $26.35. Below is some supplemental information that helps in understanding some of these assumptions:

The long-term growth rate of 3.5% is appropriate for two reasons: 1) GLW has value in the making, but in its current stage, it is arguably a growth company, which lends itself to a higher growth rate and 2) GLW has consistently outperformed GDP by around 1%, and I expect it to continue to do so due to the higher margins associated with penetrative technologies.

The revenue growth in F2015 is higher than one might expect because the years preceding this number had a high deviation and guidance from CEO Weeks has been taken into account. If you analyze GLWs past yoy growth rates, 17.1% isn't unreasonable.

Net interest income increases rapidly in the later years because GLW reconstructed their debt structure over the last two years and has accordingly experienced increasing interest income and decreasing interest expenses, which are expected to continue.

I factored in an expected rate hike later in 2015 to the WACC number as well as forecasted incremental hikes thereafter.

Assumptions - DCF Growth Rates

F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019
Operating Cash Floww
14.70% 11.10% 10.70% 11.50% 13.00%
Capital Spending 12.30% 13.00% 8.20% 15.90% 16.20%
FCF -31.90% 10.50% 11.40% 10.20% 12.00%
WACC .105 .110 .115 .115 .115
LT Growth .035
Price $34.79

I arrived at a base case price of $34.79. Below is some supplemental information that helps in understanding some of these assumptions:

This figure may seem high, but GLW's ability to generate cash is, as I said, astounding. Their average yoy FCF growth rate from 2005-2014 was 9.8%. From 2010-2014, it was 19.3%. I expect this trend to continue because cash flows don't disappear as a company matures. If anything, they may increase more so.

GLW's OCF also has a high deviation. This is probably due to their acquisitions and liquidations of long-term assets. I used CAGRs in this model because they are generally more conservative than yoy rates, but the average yoy OCF growth 2005-2014 was 14.7%.

Relative Valuation

When compared to its peers, GLW stacks up fairly well. I've included the P/CF, 1-year Sales Growth Rate, 3-year Dividend Growth Rate, Net Profit Margin, ROA and Quick Ratio. These metrics illustrate how GLW has both growth and value qualities, and is a top performer among its competitors.

Value metrics: Its P/CF multiple is 6.93, which is the second lowest out of 6 competitors (the lowest multiple is 5.71 held by Flextronics (NASDAQ:FLEX). The Net Profit Margin is 26.60, which is the highest among its peers Amphenol (NYSE:APH) was in second with 13.59). The Quick Ratio is 4.17, which is the highest of its competitors (second highest is Kyocera (NYSE:KYO) with 3.10).

In short, GLW has the metrics of a value company. It's undervalued, able to make money, and is the most liquid of its competitors. From a value standpoint, GLW proves to be a good investment.

Growth metrics: The 1-year Sales Growth Rate is 16.84, which is the highest of the 6 competitors (coming in second was APH with 13.50). The 3-year Dividend Growth Rate is 32.20, which is the second highest of its 6 peers (4 have been paying dividends for 3-plus years; APH had 146.60). GLW's ROA is 8.76 (in the median of its competitors with a high of APH: 11.12 and low of KYO: 4.43).

Even though GLW has value, these metrics prove that there is growth to drive capital appreciation. Sharply increasing sales and dividends while effectively drawing returns off of assets proves that GLW's growth phase is not yet over.

I attribute this double-sided investment to two things: GLW's ability to generate cash and a stellar management team. Seeing as cash flows have already been touched upon, I'll briefly go into management. CEO Wendell Weeks has been with the company for 30 years, spending 15 in management. He's used this time to develop a deep understanding of a few key lines of business. This experience culminated with him helping bring the company back to profitability after the telecom crash in 2002. CFO James Flaws has been with the company for 42 years, spending 18 in management. He has an engineering background which helped him rise through the ranks, lead numerous teams to success, and lead different developments in GLW subsidiaries. Innovation Officer Marty Curran manages a portfolio of projects that are centered around profitability and innovation. It should be noted that this is a board position, which only adds to GLW's reputation in innovation and penetrative technologies. It operates across all segments, and given his 31 years with the company and extensive experience on different management teams in different areas of the world, he is the right person to manage it. It is with this aggregate experience and expertise that GLW manages to grow and retain value.

At this stage, GLW represents a unique play. It has the value that some look for and the growth that others look for in one investment. As the company matures, it will turn into a value investment, but at this stage, there's too much growth left to be had to ignore it until then.

Conclusion

Based off of these assumptions and weighting the more conservative DDM at 70% value, I forecast a theoretical price of $28.88, which represents a 47% upside potential. As the forecast predicts, this is five years out, which brings me to my last point: market timing. Buffett believes that investors should buy good companies with little regard to macroeconomic conditions, and I agree. Yes there is turmoil abroad (thanks Greece), but GLW is a grade A value investment with staying power.

Their ability to generate cash, remain a leading producer of penetrative technologies, and strategically expand their asset and customer base solidifies GLW's place in the global market as a leader in diversified technology products and services.

[sirmike [Blogger]]

Barclays Reaffirms “Top Pick” Rating for Corning

(QUELLE) - Corning (NYSE:GLW)‘s stock had its “top pick” rating reaffirmed by research analysts at Barclays in a report released on Monday. They currently have a $26.00 price objective on the stock. Barclays’ price objective suggests a potential upside of 21.27% from the stock’s previous close.

The analysts wrote, “Despite the mild sell-off post earnings, we still like GLW as our top pick. Long-term growth prospects are as encouraging as they have been in recent quarters. The quarter and guidance were essentially in line with our expectations so we would attribute the underperformance to the unchanged, though still positive, commentary on the glass market.”

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at HSBC downgraded shares of Corning from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Thursday. Analysts at Credit Agricole downgraded shares of Corning from an “underperform” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Wednesday, April 29th. Analysts at CLSA downgraded shares of Corning from an “underperform” rating to a “sell” rating and set a $20.00 price target on the stock in a research note on Wednesday, April 29th. Finally, analysts at Vetr upgraded shares of Corning from a “buy” rating to a “strong-buy” rating and set a $25.52 price target on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, April 28th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, five have assigned a hold rating, six have issued a buy rating and two have issued a strong buy rating to the stock. The stock currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average target price of $25.04.