Diskussion zu Silver Elephant Mining Corp, ehemals Prophecy Development Corp. (Seite 339)
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.599.552 von sebaldo am 19.05.19 23:40:48Ab >200(US)$ bevorzugen die DragonGuys Niob.
Nicht "exakt", aber Da sind Wir scheinbar ääääähnlich geminded.
Nicht "exakt", aber Da sind Wir scheinbar ääääähnlich geminded.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.599.447 von Popeye82 am 19.05.19 22:51:32Kannst du mal was Leichteres fragen?
Der Hype im letzten Jahr spricht dafür, dass Vanadium sexy ist. Aber die Preis-Auswüchse waren wohl eher den Spekulanten geschuldet.
Wo wird der Preis sich einpendeln? Ehrlich gesagt, keine Ahnung.
Nicht unmaßgeblich wird der Preis wohl auch von der Phantasie in Sa. Vanadium-Redox-Accus abhängen. Aber wenn der Preis weiter so rumschlingert, wird man sich wohl anderen Rohstoffen oder Techniken zuwenden.
Eine weitere Unbekannte ist die Frage, wie konsequent die Chinesen ihre Vorgaben beim Wohnungbau (Stichwort Bewehrungsstahl) umsetzen.
Aber ich wage trotzdem mal einen Tipp.
15-17$
Der Hype im letzten Jahr spricht dafür, dass Vanadium sexy ist. Aber die Preis-Auswüchse waren wohl eher den Spekulanten geschuldet.
Wo wird der Preis sich einpendeln? Ehrlich gesagt, keine Ahnung.
Nicht unmaßgeblich wird der Preis wohl auch von der Phantasie in Sa. Vanadium-Redox-Accus abhängen. Aber wenn der Preis weiter so rumschlingert, wird man sich wohl anderen Rohstoffen oder Techniken zuwenden.
Eine weitere Unbekannte ist die Frage, wie konsequent die Chinesen ihre Vorgaben beim Wohnungbau (Stichwort Bewehrungsstahl) umsetzen.
Aber ich wage trotzdem mal einen Tipp.
15-17$
Was für Vanadiumpreis erwartet Ihr so, in DREI bis FÜNF years?????
Wenn ja Vanadium auch nur ansatzweise etwas mit der Realität bei PCY zu tun hätte.... bislang sind es ja lediglich Planungen, ebenso wie die deaströs geendeten "Planungen" hinsichtlich Platin, Kohle, Kraftwerk, Silber.... eben alles das, was John Lee seiner "kreativen Feder" entspringen ließ und lediglich mit der Versenkung eines dreistelligen Millionenbetrages endete, unter immer noch lautem Jubel der Promoter in den Foren und in feister Selbst-Alimentierung der Initiatoren dieser "Unternehmung".
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.587.168 von uralsib am 16.05.19 22:50:11Ach sehr interessant.
Zitat:
...
late March it became apparent that the Chinese steel mills were not ignoring the new standard as evidenced by rising imports of niobium which is the substitute for vanadium in some cases in this application. Significant increase in niobium imports led to a second industry rumour. Obviously the standard was not being avoided or ignored or there would not have been an increase in niobium imports, but the high import levels of niobium in January led some people to believe that niobium would completely replace vanadium in high strength rebar. It's clearly my view that this speculation is incorrect, metallurgically that's an impossible outcome
...
Zitat:
...
late March it became apparent that the Chinese steel mills were not ignoring the new standard as evidenced by rising imports of niobium which is the substitute for vanadium in some cases in this application. Significant increase in niobium imports led to a second industry rumour. Obviously the standard was not being avoided or ignored or there would not have been an increase in niobium imports, but the high import levels of niobium in January led some people to believe that niobium would completely replace vanadium in high strength rebar. It's clearly my view that this speculation is incorrect, metallurgically that's an impossible outcome
...
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Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.587.168 von uralsib am 16.05.19 22:50:112 Hinweise/Einschätzungen bestärken mich in meiner Beurteilung, hier nicht total daneben zu liegen:
We do believe that we are going to see the price very soon move back above this $15 per lb V2o5 support level and we do think that there's going to be a very turbulent environment today in China this year given the situation.
.......
"It's very difficult to understand what's going on and in this environment rumour can take on a life of its own and we do believe that the perception that niobium will replace vanadium in high strength rebar is causing the current weakness in the market and we expect that very soon the market's going to wake up to the fact that the consumption of both vanadium and niobium are increasing dramatically in China."
Schaumer mal. Kann was werden, muss aber nicht. Der Vanadiummarkt ist extrem volatil und wird es wohl auch noch eine Zeit lang bleiben.
We do believe that we are going to see the price very soon move back above this $15 per lb V2o5 support level and we do think that there's going to be a very turbulent environment today in China this year given the situation.
.......
"It's very difficult to understand what's going on and in this environment rumour can take on a life of its own and we do believe that the perception that niobium will replace vanadium in high strength rebar is causing the current weakness in the market and we expect that very soon the market's going to wake up to the fact that the consumption of both vanadium and niobium are increasing dramatically in China."
Schaumer mal. Kann was werden, muss aber nicht. Der Vanadiummarkt ist extrem volatil und wird es wohl auch noch eine Zeit lang bleiben.
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.587.168 von uralsib am 16.05.19 22:50:11http://www.spartonres.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Presenta…
"Terry Perles is the #1 expert when it comes to Vanadium"
"Terry Perles is the #1 expert when it comes to Vanadium"
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.587.168 von uralsib am 16.05.19 22:50:11https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/nine-trapped-in-…
"of note this morning an office building in Shanghai collapsed, not sure on injuries or loss of life, but certainly some people trapped. China works in its own way, a couple of mill managers taken out and shot or imprisoned for not following the dictates, and suddenly adherence to policy occurs."
"of note this morning an office building in Shanghai collapsed, not sure on injuries or loss of life, but certainly some people trapped. China works in its own way, a couple of mill managers taken out and shot or imprisoned for not following the dictates, and suddenly adherence to policy occurs."
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.587.160 von uralsib am 16.05.19 22:49:29CC transcript contd.
"Last year in China we had about 40 million tons of grade 2 rebar. The revised standard eliminates grade 2 rebar and now in theory all of that grade 2 rebar must be produced to grade 3 standard. The revised standard also eliminates the possibility of sending quench and tempered steel into this market. We don't know how much quench and tempered steel went into the market last year but circumstantially it looks like about 10,000 tons of vanadium consumption per year had been impacted by the use of quench and tempered steel in this market. So we fully anticipate that today the mills have started consuming more vanadium and that the grade 2 and the quench and tempered steel is going to be and is being replaced by steel that's alloyed with either vanadium or niobium. As we go through the numbers if we make the rather extreme assumption that half of the grade 3 rebar could be produced using niobium we come up with an analysis that suggests vanadium consumption in China should increase from 36,000 tons of pure vanadium in 2018 to 44,000 tons of pure vanadium in 2019. At the same time niobium consumption in China is forecast in this scenario to rise from 25,000 metric tons of pure niobium to 40,000 metric tons of pure niobium.
The fact that China produces almost no niobium means that imports are a very good proxy for consumption. Import data is readily available so it's easy to see the growth of niobium imports and therefore niobium consumption in China. Far less obvious is the impact of the new situation on vanadium consumption given the fact that China's historically a net importer of vanadium so the internal supply demand changes are not readily visible. Today in China rebar production's reached an historical high point. Inventories of vanadium built at mills in late 2018 are being depleted. It's my view that both consumption of vanadium and niobium are occurring at record levels at Chinese steel mills. We do believe that once the mills have exhausted the inventories built in late 2018 we are going to see a significant increase in buying from the Chinese steel mills.
We do believe that we are going to see the price very soon move back above this $15 per lb V2o5 support level and we do think that there's going to be a very turbulent environment today in China this year given the situation. Also it's important to note that today vanadium prices in China are below niobium prices and in that situation there's no incentive to deal with the operational issues associated with using niobium in this application.
In western markets we are also seeing a very weak market. In fact we now have prices in the west that are below Chinese prices. It's a very unusual situation . I think the very high price in the end of last year did result in some substitutional loss of market share in the west and as a result of that the major suppliers particularly into Europe are facing a situation where off take and contract customers are not as high as they anticipated and so they are dealing with a problem of placing the last few % of production into a relatively thin spot market and that has caused the western price to actually to move a bit below the Chinese prices. It's unusual given that outside of China there's an annual deficit of about 8,000 tons of vanadium and so normally the availability of Chinese exports drive the western markets.
So today we are in a position where vanadium and niobium are basically at par in terms of their costs for the steel maker. We do look for some rebar producers that moved to niobium in the second half of 2018 to come back to vanadium. The inventories of rebar in China are declining. Rebar production today in China has reached a high point. Rebar production is more than 20% above the levels in February, so the inventory of vanadium at the steel mills are being rapidly depleted and we do expect to see these mills coming back in a big way to start sourcing more vanadium.
So in summary we do think we have a very opaque market here. It's very difficult to understand what's going on and in this environment rumour can take on a life of its own and we do believe that the perception that niobium will replace vanadium in high strength rebar is causing the current weakness in the market and we expect that very soon the market's going to wake up to the fact that the consumption of both vanadium and niobium are increasing dramatically in China."
"Last year in China we had about 40 million tons of grade 2 rebar. The revised standard eliminates grade 2 rebar and now in theory all of that grade 2 rebar must be produced to grade 3 standard. The revised standard also eliminates the possibility of sending quench and tempered steel into this market. We don't know how much quench and tempered steel went into the market last year but circumstantially it looks like about 10,000 tons of vanadium consumption per year had been impacted by the use of quench and tempered steel in this market. So we fully anticipate that today the mills have started consuming more vanadium and that the grade 2 and the quench and tempered steel is going to be and is being replaced by steel that's alloyed with either vanadium or niobium. As we go through the numbers if we make the rather extreme assumption that half of the grade 3 rebar could be produced using niobium we come up with an analysis that suggests vanadium consumption in China should increase from 36,000 tons of pure vanadium in 2018 to 44,000 tons of pure vanadium in 2019. At the same time niobium consumption in China is forecast in this scenario to rise from 25,000 metric tons of pure niobium to 40,000 metric tons of pure niobium.
The fact that China produces almost no niobium means that imports are a very good proxy for consumption. Import data is readily available so it's easy to see the growth of niobium imports and therefore niobium consumption in China. Far less obvious is the impact of the new situation on vanadium consumption given the fact that China's historically a net importer of vanadium so the internal supply demand changes are not readily visible. Today in China rebar production's reached an historical high point. Inventories of vanadium built at mills in late 2018 are being depleted. It's my view that both consumption of vanadium and niobium are occurring at record levels at Chinese steel mills. We do believe that once the mills have exhausted the inventories built in late 2018 we are going to see a significant increase in buying from the Chinese steel mills.
We do believe that we are going to see the price very soon move back above this $15 per lb V2o5 support level and we do think that there's going to be a very turbulent environment today in China this year given the situation. Also it's important to note that today vanadium prices in China are below niobium prices and in that situation there's no incentive to deal with the operational issues associated with using niobium in this application.
In western markets we are also seeing a very weak market. In fact we now have prices in the west that are below Chinese prices. It's a very unusual situation . I think the very high price in the end of last year did result in some substitutional loss of market share in the west and as a result of that the major suppliers particularly into Europe are facing a situation where off take and contract customers are not as high as they anticipated and so they are dealing with a problem of placing the last few % of production into a relatively thin spot market and that has caused the western price to actually to move a bit below the Chinese prices. It's unusual given that outside of China there's an annual deficit of about 8,000 tons of vanadium and so normally the availability of Chinese exports drive the western markets.
So today we are in a position where vanadium and niobium are basically at par in terms of their costs for the steel maker. We do look for some rebar producers that moved to niobium in the second half of 2018 to come back to vanadium. The inventories of rebar in China are declining. Rebar production today in China has reached a high point. Rebar production is more than 20% above the levels in February, so the inventory of vanadium at the steel mills are being rapidly depleted and we do expect to see these mills coming back in a big way to start sourcing more vanadium.
So in summary we do think we have a very opaque market here. It's very difficult to understand what's going on and in this environment rumour can take on a life of its own and we do believe that the perception that niobium will replace vanadium in high strength rebar is causing the current weakness in the market and we expect that very soon the market's going to wake up to the fact that the consumption of both vanadium and niobium are increasing dramatically in China."
Antwort auf Beitrag Nr.: 60.570.003 von sebaldo am 14.05.19 22:58:43interessant:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/197308373/files/doc_financials/quarter…
"Largo transcript May 2019.
Thanks to pdub from Bushveld BB
Terry Perles on Vanadium market. (From 12 minutes)
I would like to start just looking back over 2018 and a bit of a recap on where we've been. Looking at 2018 vanadium production totalled just more than 89,000 tons of pur vanadium while consumption of vanadium was about 97,000 tons of pure vanadium. So in this year 2018 we saw significant deficit and global inventory drawdown. In 2018 vanadium prices as reported by MetalBulletin publication "in warehouse Rotterdam" duty not paid basis started the year at $9.75 per lb V2o5 and peaked at $29.15 per lb V2o5 in mid November before falling to $15 per lb V2o5 at Christmas. Then from January to late March 2019 prices rose from $15 to $17.75 per lb V2o5 before a second downward movement began taking the price down to today's level of $8.45
Fundamentally vanadium production continues to lag demand and the situation is expected to persist for several years. Given the fundamental situation the market right now is very difficult to explain. Clearly the data shows that there's not a tremendous amount of support for vanadium prices above $15 per lb V2o5 and very high levels above $15 we start to see the loss of market due to substitution and we also see some high cost new sources of production coming to the market. For example the Chinese stone coal mines and energy fuels extracting vanadium from their retention ponds. So the price has moved from $29.15 in November down to $15 was not a surprise although the speed at which the downward movement occurred was a bit if a surprise.
During the second half of 2018 Chinese steel mills built inventory vanadium in advance of the implementation of the new standards effective November for high strength rebar, and this pressure helped push the vanadium price up to a very high level. In November / December with vanadium prices at extremely high levels and the mills having built some inventory spot buying was very weak in China. We have a very opaque market here. Some people interpreted the weak spot business as a reflection of the Chinese mills ignoring the new rebar standard and I believe this perception caused the price to move back down very rapidly by Christmas to the $15 level.
What we can see from the data is what we have is an environment where consumption is ahead of production. Vanadium prices at $15 have very strong support level but what we saw January through March saw the price rise from $15 to about $17 on the back of a tight market situation, before we saw the price suddenly start to collapse again. In late March it became apparent that the Chinese steel mills were not ignoring the new standard as evidenced by rising imports of niobium which is the substitute for vanadium in some cases in this application. Significant increase in niobium imports led to a second industry rumour. Obviously the standard was not being avoided or ignored or there would not have been an increase in niobium imports, but the high import levels of niobium in January led some people to believe that niobium would completely replace vanadium in high strength rebar.
It's clearly my view that this speculation is incorrect, metallurgically that's an impossible outcome and I think that this misconception pushed the price down to the point we have now. If we very briefly look at metallurgy, both niobium and vanadium impart higher strength on steel but they do it through very different metallurgical mechanisms. Vanadium is very predictable, it's very easy and it is the best solution for this application. In some cases, if we have the right metallurgical understanding, if we have a reheat furnace with the ability to get the billets up to 1200c, if we have a high powered rolling mill and if we are producing rebar smaller than 25 mm diameter it is theoretically possible to use niobium rather than vanadium. The use of niobium requires a controlled rolling practice that leads to higher energy useage, lower throughput through the mill and will result in higher quality issues, but it can be done in some cases.
So what we really need to understand is what's going on in terms of niobium and vanadium consumption in China. If we look at the latest data available it will suggest that in grade 3 rebar 38% of the rebar is 25mm in diameter or larger and therefore can not be produced with niobium due to the metallurgical limitations. It's also the case that grade 4 and grade 5 high strength rebar in China must use vanadium. There's no question about it. So the new standard has in effect done two things. It's eliminated loopholes that allowed people to send quench and tempered steel into this market advertised as grade 3. Quench and tempered steel does not meet the standard for elongation and it will not perform well in seismic activity. When this use of illegal quench and tempered steel was discovered a research project by the Chinese Iron and Steel research institute was initiated. It was discovered that there were some steel mills sending quench and tempered steel into the market and calling it grade 3 rebar. The revision of the standard is designed to solve that problem.
https://s22.q4cdn.com/197308373/files/doc_financials/quarter…
"Largo transcript May 2019.
Thanks to pdub from Bushveld BB
Terry Perles on Vanadium market. (From 12 minutes)
I would like to start just looking back over 2018 and a bit of a recap on where we've been. Looking at 2018 vanadium production totalled just more than 89,000 tons of pur vanadium while consumption of vanadium was about 97,000 tons of pure vanadium. So in this year 2018 we saw significant deficit and global inventory drawdown. In 2018 vanadium prices as reported by MetalBulletin publication "in warehouse Rotterdam" duty not paid basis started the year at $9.75 per lb V2o5 and peaked at $29.15 per lb V2o5 in mid November before falling to $15 per lb V2o5 at Christmas. Then from January to late March 2019 prices rose from $15 to $17.75 per lb V2o5 before a second downward movement began taking the price down to today's level of $8.45
Fundamentally vanadium production continues to lag demand and the situation is expected to persist for several years. Given the fundamental situation the market right now is very difficult to explain. Clearly the data shows that there's not a tremendous amount of support for vanadium prices above $15 per lb V2o5 and very high levels above $15 we start to see the loss of market due to substitution and we also see some high cost new sources of production coming to the market. For example the Chinese stone coal mines and energy fuels extracting vanadium from their retention ponds. So the price has moved from $29.15 in November down to $15 was not a surprise although the speed at which the downward movement occurred was a bit if a surprise.
During the second half of 2018 Chinese steel mills built inventory vanadium in advance of the implementation of the new standards effective November for high strength rebar, and this pressure helped push the vanadium price up to a very high level. In November / December with vanadium prices at extremely high levels and the mills having built some inventory spot buying was very weak in China. We have a very opaque market here. Some people interpreted the weak spot business as a reflection of the Chinese mills ignoring the new rebar standard and I believe this perception caused the price to move back down very rapidly by Christmas to the $15 level.
What we can see from the data is what we have is an environment where consumption is ahead of production. Vanadium prices at $15 have very strong support level but what we saw January through March saw the price rise from $15 to about $17 on the back of a tight market situation, before we saw the price suddenly start to collapse again. In late March it became apparent that the Chinese steel mills were not ignoring the new standard as evidenced by rising imports of niobium which is the substitute for vanadium in some cases in this application. Significant increase in niobium imports led to a second industry rumour. Obviously the standard was not being avoided or ignored or there would not have been an increase in niobium imports, but the high import levels of niobium in January led some people to believe that niobium would completely replace vanadium in high strength rebar.
It's clearly my view that this speculation is incorrect, metallurgically that's an impossible outcome and I think that this misconception pushed the price down to the point we have now. If we very briefly look at metallurgy, both niobium and vanadium impart higher strength on steel but they do it through very different metallurgical mechanisms. Vanadium is very predictable, it's very easy and it is the best solution for this application. In some cases, if we have the right metallurgical understanding, if we have a reheat furnace with the ability to get the billets up to 1200c, if we have a high powered rolling mill and if we are producing rebar smaller than 25 mm diameter it is theoretically possible to use niobium rather than vanadium. The use of niobium requires a controlled rolling practice that leads to higher energy useage, lower throughput through the mill and will result in higher quality issues, but it can be done in some cases.
So what we really need to understand is what's going on in terms of niobium and vanadium consumption in China. If we look at the latest data available it will suggest that in grade 3 rebar 38% of the rebar is 25mm in diameter or larger and therefore can not be produced with niobium due to the metallurgical limitations. It's also the case that grade 4 and grade 5 high strength rebar in China must use vanadium. There's no question about it. So the new standard has in effect done two things. It's eliminated loopholes that allowed people to send quench and tempered steel into this market advertised as grade 3. Quench and tempered steel does not meet the standard for elongation and it will not perform well in seismic activity. When this use of illegal quench and tempered steel was discovered a research project by the Chinese Iron and Steel research institute was initiated. It was discovered that there were some steel mills sending quench and tempered steel into the market and calling it grade 3 rebar. The revision of the standard is designed to solve that problem.
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